Prior was 100.4Expectations 78.2 vs 72.8 priorPresent situation 133.6 vs 135.3 prior16.0% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” from 15.7%.12 month inflation expectations 5.4% vs 5.4% priorOn a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes fell to a 12-year low.
“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the
narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.
“Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor
market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and
interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not
improve until next year.”
“Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic
about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but
consumers remained generally negative about business and employment
conditions ahead. Meanwhile, consumers were a bit less positive about
current labor and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job
additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job
availability: while still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the
current labor market situation declined to its lowest level since March
2021.”
There are certainly signs of a slowing of the economy and the consumer but there isn’t much here, though the ‘present situation’ index did fall to a three-year low.
Also note some of the softening in discretionary services spending:
Based on a supplemental question, planned spending on services
appeared weaker in July 2024 than in July 2023. Consumers said they
plan to spend less over the next six months on many discretionary items,
including gambling, amusement parks, and personal travel. They also
plan to purchase less expensive services—for example, streaming instead
of going to the movies. The planned reduction in services spending was
across the board, but consumers continued to prioritize
non-discretionary expenditures like healthcare and motor vehicle
services.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
