Headline CPI:
Prior was +2.7% y/ym/m reading at +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded 0.3130% vs 0.2441% prior
Core measures:
Core CPI 3.3% vs +3.3% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedCore unrounded +0.308% vs +0.2800% m/m priorReal weekly earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Core services ex shelter +0.3% vs +0.3% priorCore-CPI services ex-rent/OER +% vs +0.2% prior
Fed pricing for a cut next week was at 85% ahead of the data.
The index for shelter rose 0.3% in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly
all items increase. The Fed believes that’s mostly lagged seasonality with real-time numbers lower than this headline. Rents were up 4.4% y/y and owners’ equivalent rent was up 4.9%. The item that’s stinging US consumers is auto insurance, which was up 12.7% y/y, though the pace of gains appears to be stalling with October CPI down 0.1% and the latest month up 0.1%.
The food index rose 0.4% m/m and that’s an item to watch going forward.
USD/JPY has cooled to 152.30 from 152.60 since the release.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
