Business activity index 59.9 vs 53.3 priorEmployment 48.1 vs 50.2 prior (lowest since June)New orders 59.4 vs 53.0 prior (highest since Feb 2023)Prices paid 59.4 vs 57.3 prior (highest since Jan)Supplier deliveries 52.1 vs 49.6 priorInventories 58.1 vs 52.9 priorBacklog of orders 48.3 vs 43.7 priorNew export orders 56.7 vs 50.9 priorImports 52.7 vs 50.3 priorInventory sentiment 54.0 vs 54.9 priorFull release
This is a very strong report and the best since Feb 2023. The caveat is on the jobs side, with the decline pointing to downside risks in tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report.
That said, the post-pandemic track record of this indicator is poor.
Comments in the report:
“Overall, economic factors are somewhat stable in the last month. Volatility was limited, based more on seasonal aspects than geopolitical issues or election season. That stability may be short-lived due to looming port labor issues heading into October.” [Accommodation & Food Services]”Business has been flat over the past three to six months, with concerns over growth in the near term.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]”Housing construction continues to struggle with high interest rates. While the recent half-point cut is encouraging, it may take another 150 basis points to move the needle in sales. Labor and heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) regulations continue to be a drag on construction last month.” [Construction]”Interest rates in both the housing and auto markets have been steadily declining, leading to a slight increase in auto and home loan applications.” [Finance & Insurance]”Back orders from manufacturers have increased, resulting in supply constraints.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]”New projects have not been consolidated in the U.S., which has led my organization to cut costs, especially by dismissing employees from departments with a lower activity volume.” [Information]”There is concern over the economy, and it feels like a lot of people are waiting to see which way the election goes in November before making a solid plan for 2025 and beyond.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]”Prices remaining mostly steady, with a significant increase in fiscal year-end spending.” [Public Administration]”Starting to see positive year-over-year change in sales. Slow but steady.” [Retail Trade]”Sales have slowed a bit, with customers possibly holding back on new projects and awaiting the outcome of the presidential election.” [Wholesale Trade]
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
