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Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 103 bps (87% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
ECB: 64 bps (100% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today’s meeting)
BoE: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoC: 57 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
RBA: 18 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 79 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
SNB: 56 bps (73% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 8 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*Where you see 25 bps probability, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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