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Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 42 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 98 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 65 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 58 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 71 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 103 bps (61% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 40 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 47 bps (80% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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