In the European session, the main event will be the BoE Policy Decision where the central bank is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US Jobless Claims data as it’s a timelier indicator of the labour market.
We saw a spike recently, but we’ve seen many such spikes in the past two years. We will likely need Initial Claims to spike above 270K to trigger some risk aversion. We will also get the final US Q3 GDP reading but the market won’t care about that.
12:00 GMT/07:00 ET – BoE Policy Decision
The BoE is
expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75%. Dhingra is expected to be
the lone dissenter. The recent inflation data came on the hotter side and BoE
speakers seem to be in favour of “gradual” easing which point to a rate cut
every quarter, as touted already by Governor Bailey. The market, on the other hand, is pricing just two 25 bps cuts in 2025.
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
continue to hover around the cycle highs. This week, Initial
Claims are expected at 230K vs. 240K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1890K vs. 1886K prior.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
