In the European session, we have the French, German and Italian inflation figures, which shouldn’t sway the ECB from cutting in June unless we get a resolution on the trade war front. We will also get the Eurozone Flash Q1 GDP reading but as it’s always the case for the GDP data, it’s old news.
In the American session, we get lots of tier-one US data. Beginning with the release of the US ADP, we follow with the advance US Q1 GDP, the US Employment Cost Index and the US PCE Price Index data. In all this flurry of US data releases we will also get the Canadian GDP report.
As it’s been the case since April 2, the data is not what the market is focused on at the moment because it’s old news. More weakness in the data is already expected. What can change these expectations is less uncertainty on the trade front. In fact, the market is likely waiting for the details of the first trade deal to derive expectations from it for the next deals.
Yesterday, the US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick, said the they already have a deal ready with a country and they are just waiting for the approval from the foreign parliament. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has been mentioning frequently that India could be the first one, so we can bet on that one.
We don’t have a timeline, but the US officials continue to repeat that it’s going to be announced this week or the next.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
