EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we get the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. They are all expected to be worse than the prior month amid the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. We will likely see lower than expected figures across the board.
I’m not sure that’s going to matter much for the market though now that there’s hope for an end sometime in the next two weeks. In fact, just as the war in Iran will likely lead to worse economic data in March, the end of the war could lead to better economic data in the coming months.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, the highlight will be the Flash US PMIs. Again, the data might come out worse than expected as the US-Iran war should put downward pressure on growth and upward pressure on inflation. The uncertainty is also weighing on business sentiment, so good data will likely be ignored, while bad data might trigger some growth fears.
In any case, the market focus now might be on the alleged US-Iran negotiations which could keep the markets rangebound until Friday unless we get some new development before then.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 10:00 GMT/06:00 ET – ECB’s Kocher (neutral – voter)
- 12:00 GMT/08:00 ET – ECB’s Sleijpen (neutral – voter)
- 13:30 GMT/09:30 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)
- 15:15 GMT/11:15 ET – SNB’s Tschudin (neutral – voter)
- 15:45 GMT/11:45 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
- 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET – SNB Chairman Schlegel (neutral – voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
