Who were the best 2025 forecasters? Here is who nailed (and who whiffed) the S&P 500 call

It’s easy to dunk on strategists. It’s a year-end tradition to pull up the forecast lists and laugh at how wrong the banks were.

But they did pretty well this year.

With the S&P 500 trading at 6,831 today, the index is up roughly 16% on the year. That is a strong, double-digit run. And when you look at the “consensus” pack—Goldman, JPM, Citi, MS at 6,500—they were only off by about 4.8%.

In a game where a single geopolitical headline or a shift in Fed tone can move the market 10% in a month, landing within 5% of the pin a year out is solid work, though you could pushback that a 12-15% forecast is just standard ‘continued bull market stuff’ that doesn’t take much courage.

The nightmare scenario for a strategist is predicting a rally when the market crashes (or vice versa). That didn’t happen.

Almost everyone on the Street predicted a positive year. The consensus was for a steady grind higher to 6,500. The market just had a bit more juice than they expected, overshootng their targets by roughly 300 points.

We still have to rank them, though. Accuracy matters. We’re not at the finish line yet but close enough.

SocGen deserves the accolades this year. They didn’t just get the direction right; they got the magnitude almost perfect. A target of 6,750 against a spot price of 6,831 is remarkable precision (~1.2% off).

Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo also deserve credit for breaking from the herd. They stuck their necks out with 7,000+ targets. While they overshot slightly (by ~2.5%), they captured the bull market despite the Liberation Day madness.

The Scorecard (Distance from 6,831)

Here is how the forecasts stack up by proximity:

1. SocGen: 81 pts (Target: 6,750)

2. BMO / HSBC: 131 pts (Target: 6,700)

3. BofA: 165 pts (Target: 6,666)

4. Deutsche Bank: 169 pts (Target: 7,000)

5. Wells Fargo: 176 pts (Target: 7,007)

6. Barclays / RBC: 231 pts (Target: 6,600)

7. Oppenheimer: 269 pts (Target: 7,100)

8. The Consensus (Citi, GS, JPM, MS): 331 pts (Target: 6,500)

9. UBS: 431 pts (Target: 6,400)

10. BNP Paribas: 531 pts (Target: 6,300)

11. Cantor: 831 pts (Target: 6,000)

Cantor tried for the hero call and blew it. That’s the kind of performance that will get your Chairman and CEO into the White House cabinet.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.