China treasuries fall after state media says trading accounts must not be borrowedHow the S&P 500 predicts the winner of the US Presidential electionSociete Generale says its too early to call a US recessionICYMI – Ex-ECB Constancio says September rate cut only a 50-50 chance – inflation concern“No need for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates much more than it has done”China July 2024 CPI +0.5% y/y (expected +0.3%) and PPI -0.8% y/y (expected -0.9%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1449 (vs. estimate at 7.1690)Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates again soonICYMI – Westpac revised their RBA forecast, see first rate cut in February 2025Japanese stocks to rebound after recent sell-off – SuMi TRUSTRabobank forecasts AUD/USD to 0.70 (six month horizon)MUFG expect at least one more Bank of Japan rate hike in FY, but JPY needs to calm firstFed’s Schmid: If inflation data keeps coming in low, appropriate to lower ratesUS inflation “modestly firmer” in July, still supportive of a Fed rate cut in SeptemberUS election risk – Trump wants a say in Federal Reserve decisionsRBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cutForexlive Americas FX news wrap 8 Aug: Markets breathe easy after Initial jobless claimsS&P index has its best day since November 2022. Happy days are here again.Fed’s Goolsbee speaking again, says the FOMC needs to see more employment dataTrade ideas thread – Friday, 9 August, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Inflation
data from China today surprised to the topside. Consumer
prices rose more than expected, providing
a glimmer of hope
of recovery in domestic demand. Inflation
at the wholesale level (PPI) also came in not as deflationary as
expected (thats about the best that can be said for PPI).
While
in China, bonds sold off on news that borrowed or transferred
interbank bond trading accounts would be curtailed.
Apart
from the Chinese data and news there was no news nor data of much
relevance.
USD/JPY
swung around in a range smaller than it has down in recent days. AUD,
NZD, CAD, GBP, EUR all moved higher against the USD. In limited
ranges.
Bitcoin held its gains about US$60K (above 61K as I post).
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
