Sat: Australian Election Mon: Hong Kong Holiday (Buddha’s Birth), Japanese Holiday (Children’s Day), UK Holiday (Bank Holiday); Swiss CPI (Apr), EZ Sentix (May), US ISM Services PMI (Apr), Turkish CPI (Apr) Tue: Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Apr), EZ Composite/Services Final PMI (Apr), Producer Prices (Mar), US International Trade (Mar), New Zealand Unemployment (Q1) Wed: FOMC,

S&P index closes up for the 9th day. Goldman expects OPEC plus to announce 0.41M BPD increase for June ANZ: Gold pullback creates attractive re-entry opportunity towards $3,600/oz It’s been a long time since the S&P 500 was up this many days in a row OPEC+ discussing a production increase of 400K barrels per day

The S&P is closing higher for the ninth consecutive day. Since bottoming on April 21, the index is up 11.48%. Looking at the other major indices, the NASDAQ index is up 14.61%, and the Dow is up 9.22% over the same period. For the day, the: Dow industrial average rose 564 points or 1.39% at

The AUDUSD made a strong push higher this week, breaking above a key swing area between 0.6429 and 0.64419, and stretching to test the 200-day moving average near 0.64614. The bullish momentum even briefly took the price above 0.64687, but buyers could not sustain the move, and the breakout failed. The pair is now backing

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to announce a second consecutive 0.41M BPD increase in supply for June See Brent averaging $63 in 2025. Crude $59 Sees Brent averaging $58 in 2026. Crude $55 Crude oil is trading at $58.30 down $-0.95 or -1.60%. For the trading week, the price is down $-4.75 or -7.53%. This article

Here is a great chart from Brett Donnelly highlighting today’s 9-day winning streak in the S&P 500 (which is likely to hold given the 1.6% gain so far). It’s the first 9-day run since 2005 and another day of gains would take us back to 1996. The record was a 14-day winning streak that ended

Axios is reporting that Stephen Miller is gaining momentum as a top contender to become President Trump’s next national security adviser (NSA). Miller is currently the Homeland Security adviser and a key architect of Trump’s immigration crackdown. The position opened after Mike Waltz was removed as NSA and nominated to be the next U.N. ambassador.

ANZ sees the recent retreat in gold prices from record highs as a healthy correction. Despite improved US-China trade sentiment, the medium-term macro backdrop—characterized by persistent tariff risks, rising inflation expectations, and slowing growth—remains supportive for gold. ANZ maintains a year-end target of USD 3,600/oz, with USD 3,000–3,200/oz identified as a potential buy zone. Key

The major US stock indices are extending to new session highs after reports that China is looking to offer to the US a solution for fentanyl as a springboard toward more trade talks. The gains are led by the NASDAQ index which is currently up 323 points or 1.83% at 18034.90. The S&P index is

OPEC+ reportedly discussing a June production increase of approximately 400,000 barrels per day (BPD) according to Bloomberg delegates. The group has moved its meeting forward to May 3 (originally May 5) to discuss June output plans, per Reuters. Market expectations suggest OPEC+ will continue adding supply in June, with a consensus forming around a 411k

The major European indices are closing higher for the day and higher for the week. The indices are now up for the third consecutive week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX rose 2.62%. For the trading week the index was up 3.8% last week the index rose 4.89% Francis CAC rose 2.33%.

The NVIDIA Connection: What Big Tech Earnings Tell Us About AI Demand Recent earnings reports from tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon have not only captured investor attention but also provided crucial insights into the booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Central to this AI wave is NVIDIA, the leading provider of

The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, May 2, 2025, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is

The stock market is showing a vibrant landscape today, with the technology sector leading a healthy upward trend. However, not all is bullish, as major tech player Apple faces significant declines amidst otherwise positive growth. 📈 Technology Sector: A Beacon of Growth The technology sector stands out with remarkable gains. Microsoft (MSFT) is up 2.70%,

Central banks are accelerating their shift away from the US dollar, a move that has gained traction over the past decade and shows no sign of slowing. “We believe the diversification away from dollar should persist, as this trend has been well entrenched for the past decade,” the Goldman Sachs strategists wrote. The momentum intensified

We’ll continue to ask US to reconsider tariffs. Tokyo ready to respond to Chinese import surge. Tokyo’s principle is FX rates should be determined by the market. Plaza accord 2.0 hasn’t come up for discussion with the US. Katsunobu Kato is Japan’s Finance Minister. There’s nothing new here as the Japanese continue to push for

The solid non-farm payrolls print today and rebound in the stock market has pricing for a June cut down to 40% from as high as 75% last week. Goldman Sachs is now piling on and pushing their cut fall to the July 30 meeting from June 18. With today’s jobs report, the Fed won’t get

ECBs deGuindos is on the wires saying: ECB can be optimistic on inflation ECB doesn’t target or exchange rate, but watches are closely Does not think the Eurozone will fall into a recession Economic risks highlighted in March is now materializing This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Japan negotiators reportedly firmly opposed to US tariffs proposal US reluctant to exempt Japan from 10% reciprocal tariff – Kyodo Japan PM Ishiba: US auto tariffs are ‘absolutely unacceptable’ Japan’s Kato: We’ll continue to ask US to reconsider tariffs What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Eurozone April preliminary CPI +2.2%

S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% on the day and that sets up the cash index to eye a potential ninth consecutive day of gains. It’s been an impressive rebound in Wall Street to say the least, on what has been a lot talking the talk but nothing about walking the walk just yet. This

Will name cabinet May 12 Parliament to return May 26 Will deliver Throne Speech May 27 Typically, Parliament has returned around 45 days after an election though in 2008 and 2011 it returned after 35 and 31 days, respectively. This is a relatively quick turnaround by Canadian standards. This article was written by Adam Button

The WSJ is reporting that Beijing weighs Fentanyl offer to US to start the trade talks. The manufacturing and distribution of a drug whose purpose to kill is a good idea. I know the US and China have differences, but to knowingly flood through smuggling a drug that kills indiscriminately is just as evil as

Big Tech Earnings: Separating Headlines from Reality When big tech giants like this week’s Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta report earnings, headlines quickly flood the market. These headlines often shape immediate investor sentiment and trading behavior. However, insightful investors understand a crucial truth: Headlines can mislead, and the actual price action provides the ultimate reality

The USDCHF is trading in a choppy fashion following the U.S. jobs report, moving above and below its converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages, both currently near 0.8254. The pair has traded between a session high of 0.8275 and a low of 0.8226, effectively bracketing those key technical levels. The convergence of the moving averages

The GBPUSD buyers had their opportunity earlier this week, briefly driving the price to the highest level since March 2022 (above 1.3433) — but they couldn’t sustain the breakout. The pair reversed lower after reaching 1.34413, just above the 2024 high of 1.3433, marking a failed upside attempt. Since then, the pair has moved lower

CapEx Surge in AI: Smart Investment or Investor Trap? The latest earnings reports from tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon spotlight a substantial rise in capital expenditures (CapEx), primarily driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. But traders and investors alike are now grappling with a key question: Will this massive spending spree

Amazon’s Cyclical Dilemma: Is AWS at an AI Crossroads? Amazon’s latest earnings report, accompanied by a roughly 2.5% decline in pre-market trading, highlights investor concerns about cyclical pressures and profitability—particularly in its AWS cloud computing division. Amid escalating investments in artificial intelligence (AI), AWS faces critical questions that investors must consider: Will AWS overcome short-term

At this time yesterday on CNBC, here is what White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett said when asked about a trade deal: “If you’d like the person in the middle of all that is Jamieson Greer and Howard Lutnick outside of China. And I’m sure they’re happy to talk to you about it; I’m sure

The market has taken down the implied probability of a June rate cut from upwards of 75% last week down to 42% at present. The latest leg in the shift came after a solid but unspectacular non-farm payrolls report. Nick Timiraos from the WSJ highlights the Fed’s view: The April jobs report makes a June

German DAX futures +1.3% UK FTSE futures +0.6% S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%, so that’s feeding into a more positive mood going into European trading. For European stocks, it’s also a catch up to the overnight gains after the Labor Day holiday yesterday. As things stand, trade headlines remain the main driver but there’s

Happy Friday. Futures are upbeat on the comments from China about trade but I find the comments from Japan to be the story today, as the US appears to be set on leaving the majority of tariffs on permanently, including the 10% floor. In any case, the market can turn away from tariffs for a

Analysts at Macquarie say that even if Trump reverses all his tariffs the US dollar is unlikely to fully recover all of its recent losses. They give three reasons : any capital flight from the U.S. isn’t just about foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, or public pension plans abroad selling their U.S. assets at

Despite a jobs report that means (according to WSJ Timiraos, that the “Fed doesn’t have to say anything on June at next week’s meeting” and “makes a June rate cut less likely”, the USD is moving lower with the USDCAD extending to new lows for the year and the lowest level for the year and

The comments from Trump after Carney’s win sparked some optimism that US-Canada tensions would ebb. “I think we’re going to have a great relationship,” he says. “He was running for office. They both hated Trump — and it was the one that hated Trump the least, I think, that won.” You know what would be

The USD is lower vs the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – ahead of the US jobs report. The expectation is for the jobs shows: Non-farm payroll 130K vs 228K last month Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.2% last month Average hourly earnings 0.3% vs 0.3% last month Average workweek 34.2 hours

The EURUSD moved higher in early U.S. trading on Friday, breaking decisively above both its 100-hour moving average at 1.1356 and 200-hour moving average at 1.1363. This move marks a clear bullish shift in short-term momentum after several days of consolidation. Earlier in the week, the pair found consistent support near the 1.1265–1.1270 area, with

Donald Trump’s rise to the U.S. presidency was marked by a series of bold and unconventional policy proposals that many pundits deemed radical at the time. Given the length of the campaign and the public nature of his platform, one would think that the market had plenty of time to prepare and price in the

There is not much on the data agenda likely to move major FX rates around too much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result.

Meta’s Quiet AI Revolution: More Profitable Than You Think? Meta Platforms’ recent earnings report underscores a crucial narrative investors shouldn’t overlook—the company’s highly effective integration of artificial intelligence (AI). Following the earnings release, Meta shares surged around 4.25% yesterday and continued to show resilience today, up an additional 0.9% pre-market. So, what’s driving investor optimism,

Prior was 46.6 Key findings: Output nearly stabilises, having declined in the 12 months prior to April Softest contraction in new orders in over a year Cost pressures cool further, but charge inflation intensifies Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This appears to

Prior was +0.6% (revised to +0.5%) Ex transport -0.2% vs +0.4% prior Durable goods orders: Durable goods orders +9.2% vs +9.2% preliminary Durable goods ex trans -0.2% vs 0.0% preliminary Durable goods ex defense +10.5% versus 0.8% preliminary Nondefense capital ex air +0.1% versus -0.3% preliminary This was all very close to expectations. This article

Apple’s AI Uncertainty: Opportunity or Risk for Investors? Apple’s latest earnings report presented investors with mixed signals. Despite solid overall performance—revenue up 5% year-over-year and services revenue climbing 12%—Apple’s stock experienced a notable drop, falling approximately 3% in pre-market trading today. What’s behind this market reaction, and why should investors pay close attention to Apple’s

Prior was +228K Unemployment rate: % versus 4.2% expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do with positioning rather than fundamentals. The short dollar trade got very overstretched so positive news on the tariffs front is providing a pullback. In the medium term, the US Dollar should keep on depreciating

It’s a big week for the oil market with the main OPEC+ meeting set for Monday. There have been some conflicting reports about how eager OPEC is to bring back curtailed barrels and how far Saudi Arabia is willing to go to punish cheaters. WTI is struggling today down 95-cents to $58.31. I’m not sure

In the European session, we have the final Manufacturing PMIs for a few European economies and the Eurozone Flash CPI. The data won’t change anything for the ECB so the market reaction will likely be limited. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US NFP report although I continue to think that

Prior 6.1%; revised to 6.2% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Shadow on Big Tech: Assessing Future Earnings Risks Recent earnings reports from major tech giants—Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—have underscored an often-overlooked risk factor: China’s economic influence and the ongoing geopolitical tension affecting these corporations’ financial performance. As traders and investors digest recent stock moves, it’s crucial to understand China’s direct and indirect impacts

Well, this is not going well… The problem here is that the US might want to keep 10% for everyone and sell it as good news, which the market might even like (considering that it’s still much lower than what was announced on April 2), but the Japanese are not budging on it. This article

Prior 48.6 The headline reading is a 32-month high while the output index also improved to 51.5, up from 50.5 in March, and that’s a 37-month high. It’s a positive sign to start Q2 as the euro area industry looks to stabilise, helped by meaningful improvements in France and Germany in particular. That said, the

It is reported that the US proposal was a framework that included reluctance to lowering tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum. This was what is being proposed by the US camp with it being centered on reciprocal tariffs. Considering said proposal, Japan negotiators are firmly opposed to it according to the media outlet. Adding that

The USD moved higher but is retracing some of the moves after the US jobs report which came in with the month revisions last month, about expectations. This month rose 177K vs 130K (+47K), but the prior month was revised to 185K from 228K (-43K). EURUSD: The EURUSD moved to a low of 1.1303 which

Japan Prime Minister Ishiba No change at all to our stance of requesting U.S. to cancel tariffs Not in situation where we have found common ground yet But received report from Akazawa that talks were forward-looking Reaching a deal in haste is not necessarily in the best interest Earlier from Japan on tariffs: Japan eco

A year ago, the old Bond King made a prediction about the path of Treasury yields. At the time, the 10-year was trading at 4.57% and he thought they were going higher. “Those that argue for lower rates have to counter the inexorable upward climb in Treasury supply and the likely Sisyphean decline in bond

Japan finance minister Kato is couching his comments in terms of “FX’ but we all know he is talking about JPY. Did not discuss with US FX target, framework to control FX moves Discussed with US need for constructive discussion on FX No discussion whatsoever with US on where FX levels should be Confirmed with

Round Numbers Matter: Microsoft’s $400 Threshold and What Comes Next Investors in tech stocks often focus intensely on financial statements, earnings calls, and analyst forecasts. However, experienced market participants know there’s another vital aspect of trading and investing—psychological price levels, specifically round numbers. Microsoft’s recent earnings-driven surge past the critical $400 threshold provides a compelling

Japan March unemployment rate 2.5% expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% Jobs to applicant ratio 1.26 expected 1.25, prior 1.24 This is the big news from Japan today, IMO: “Japan’s US Treasury holdings among tools for trade talks, Finance Minister Kato says” 99 problems but a job ain’t one in Japan! This article was written by Eamonn

US auto tariffs are ‘absolutely unacceptable’. The Japanese are drawing some red lines here on auto tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Microsoft’s AI Leap: Why Investors Should Pay Attention Microsoft’s recent earnings report has turned heads in the investing community, as shares surged dramatically by 7.63% yesterday, breaking decisively above the significant psychological threshold of $400 and currently trading around $425 in pre-market. But what specifically is fueling this bullish response, and what does it mean

Prior 48.5 That’s a modest revision higher with output rising for the first time in nearly three years. Overall, industry activity is still seen contracting but there is some underlying improvement at least. That said, there are softness in the data with employment, purchasing, and stocks all declining on the month. HCOB notes that: “Since

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Rubio is US Secretary of State and will soon also be US National Security Adviser after incumbent Waltz was fired. says Ukraine and Russia positions are still a little far apart it’s going to take a breakthrough soon on Ukraine to make this possible Trump have to decide how much time to dedicate to this

Prior was 48.3 Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 32-month high. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 37-month high. Business expectations ease to weakest in four months. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “With the headline PMI moving closer to the

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The core reading is the standout here and that will add some challenge for the ECB in trying to communicate a rate cut for next month. Traders are pricing in ~86% odds of that currently, largely due to a softening economic backdrop. But with

Rubio says Ukraine and Russia positions are still a little far apart A big turn around for US equity index trade – higher on Globex on China comments China says the US has sought to begin trade talks, China says its thinking about it … Its not just gold – Goldman Sachs says Asian currencies

Revenues $155.7 billion which is higher than the $154.889 billion estimate. EPS $1.59 versus $1.36 expected. AWS +17% to $29.3 million AWS operating income $11.5 billion versus $9.4 billion previous Forward guidance for Q2 Q2 operating income guidance 13 – $17.5 billion which is lower than expected $17.82 billion expected. Q2 revenue view $159 billion-$164

Prior was 49.5 Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Hassett on tariffs: I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day US April ISM manufacturing 48.7 vs 48.0 expected US initial jobless claims 241K vs 224K expected April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50.7 prelim Canada April S&P Global manfuacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.3 prior Amazon revenues $155.7B vs

Trump on Truth Social: ALERT: All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions. They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape,

Prior 48.9 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Ahead of last Monday’s Canadian election Adam posted on the risk for CAD – minority government: There is one Canadian election outcome that could hurt the loonie That is also a risk for this weekend’s election in Australia. Polling is currently favouring the incumbent Prime Minister Albanese, but its very close. The very real risk

Australian March retail sales +0.3% m/m, improved from February but not by as much as was expect expected +0.4%, prior +0.2% 0.0% q.q in Q1 2025, no change during the quarter is a very soft reading prior +1.0% — Data also for PPI, Q1 2025: +0.9% q/q prior +0.8% +3.7% y/y prior +3.7% also PPI

It’s the May Day holiday in much of the world today and it’s generally a great month for workers getting in paid in US dollars. May tends to be strong for the dollar. Strongest month of the year for the Dollar Index Weakest month for EUR/USD Second-worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY AUD/CAD is particularly

As we look to close out the week, there isn’t too much on the expiries list to take note of. There is perhaps arguably just one for USD/JPY at 146.00 but it doesn’t tie to any technical significance. As such, I wouldn’t expect the expiries to have much impact. The market at the moment is

Politico with the report that might have an impact on the US labour market in the weeks and months to come. Trump’s admin asked the US Supreme Court to allow rolling back immigration protections for about 600,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S. the latest of about a dozen expedited requests the Trump administration has brought

The USDCAD extended its decline yesterday’s’s, breaking below the April 21 low of 1.3781 and reaching a new low going back to October 2024 at 1.3769, before quickly snapping back higher. In today’s session, the pair once again tested the 1.3781 level, reaching 1.3783 before bouncing. Sellers turned to buyers, and the price has since

Comments from China’s Commerce Ministry began with MofCom being couy: “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” “China is currently evaluating this.” But turned confronting very quickly after: In any possible dialogue, meeting, if US does not correct its ‘unilateral’ tariff measures, US has no

Bloomberg have the info on China considering trade talks. China Commerce Ministry says the US has taken the initiative to convey to China that the US is hoping to talk on trade China said to be conducting assessment on US trade negotiations Also wants the US to correct its tariff mistakes, says the US unilaterally

Apple announced EPS and revenues that th modestly beat expectations: Revenue: $95.36 billion vs. estimate: $94.59 billion → BEAT vs. Q2 2024: $90.75 billion → +5.1% Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.65 vs. estimate: $1.63 → BEAT vs. Q2 2024: $1.52 → +8.6% Revenue by Product Segment iPhone: $46.84 billion vs. estimate: $46.17 billion → BEAT

South Korea April CPI more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That headline is via Reuters, recapping the bombshell remark from Kato earlier. Kato made the comments while appearing on a television program. Kato is Japan’s Finance Minister. He said the country’s massive holdings of U.S. Treasuries could serve as a potential bargaining tool in trade negotiations with Washington — though he emphasized there’s no commitment

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will announce earnings after the close. Investors are closely monitoring the results amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, potential tariff impacts, and shifting consumer demand. Expectations are for: Revenues of $94.54 billion versus $90.75 billion in the same quarter last year. That represents an increase of 4.17%. EPS are expected at $1.62 up

New Zealand March 2025 Building Permits +9.6% m/m +0.8% prior and +15.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy minister Akazawa said that FX was not discussed. Negotiation lasted for 130 minutes Able to have thorough discussions Again requested review of tariffs on Japan No comment on specific negotiations Talked how Japan can expand trade, non-tariff measures, economic security with US Told US that tariff measures regrettable Did not discuss forex Want

U.S. Vice President Vance: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon. up to the Russians and Ukrainians now that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are its going to be up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict “Its not going

Apple Q2 25 earnings, revenue and EPS beats: revenue: $95.36B (est. $94.59B) EPS: $1.65 (est. $1.62) dividend per share: $0.26 (est. $0.26) announces $100B share buyback More, services revenue miss a worrying point: iPhone revenue: $46.84B (est. $45.94B) greater China revenue: $16.00B (est. $16.83B) … miss services revenue: $23.87B (est. $26.72B) … a disappointment Mac

The major US indices are closing higher. The S&P index is up for the eighth consecutive day. The NASDAQ index is the biggest gainer for the day: Dow industrial average rose 83.60 points or 0.21% at 40752.96 S&P index rose 35.08 points or 0.63% at 5604.14 NASDAQ index rose 264.40 points or 1.52% in 17710.74

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Other earnings after the close showed: Motorola Solutions (MSI): MIXED EPS: $3.18 vs. $3.01 → BEAT Revenue: $2.5B vs. $2.52B → MISS Reddit (RDDT): BEAT EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.01 → BEAT Revenue: $392.4M vs. $369.0M → BEAT Shares are up around 17% in after-hours trading Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): MIXED EPS: -$0.32 vs. -$0.38 →

A new report says that Europe is arguing that when services are considered that the trade deficit with the US is only €50 billion and they could bridge that by purchasing more natural gas and agricultural products. Sefkovic indicated the EU would not accept a deal that kept tariffs at 10%, which is a critical

The news broke earlier that Tesla is replacing Elon Musk as CEO: Tesla board begins quiet search for possible Musk successor – more on this The data release from France earlier gives an indication to the urgency of this. While new car registrations in France fell 5.64% in April from a year earlier the figure

Pres. Trump says that anyone who takes oil from Iran cannot do business with the US. Oil has ticked up on the headline but is still down modestly on the day. The current prices trading at $58.11 that’s down around $0.06 on the day. The high price reached $59.01 the low price was down at

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America highlights that EUR positioning is broadly long, but notes Real Money investors are still underexposed, leaving room for further upside—particularly as equity flows and FX hedge adjustments shift in the euro’s favor. Key Points: EUR Positioning: Markets are net long EUR, but Real Money investors (e.g., pensions, insurers, asset managers) still have

The JPY complex are all higher (lower JPY) after BOJ Ueda gave a more dovish take after the rate decision today and risk on flows into US stocks after Microsoft and Meta beat expectations. The move has the USDJPY sharply higher, but also the EURJPY which is stretching higher to a key 2025 ceiling defined

Pres. Trump is speaking and says: He just received an update from congressional leaders on the tax bill Things are moving right on schedule This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Consensus estimate +130K Estimate range +25K to +195K March was +228K Private consensus +125K versus +209K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1519% Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396% Prior participation rate 62.5% Prior underemployment U6 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +3.8% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior Avg weekly

Sector Overview: Tech Sector Shines Today’s stock market is dominated by a strong performance in the technology sector. Behemoths like Microsoft (MSFT) are experiencing significant gains, up by an impressive 8.86%. This rally is fueled by investor optimism and strong earnings reports. Oracle (ORCL) also sees a notable rise of 5.17%, affirming robust confidence in

I have been speaking loud about the 1.1271 – 1.1275 area in the EURUSD as a key level for the buyers and sellers (see post here). The level corresponds with the swing high from 2023, and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2020 high to the 2022 low (not shown). Move below

Hopeful for progress with China on trade. We are very close to making progress with China. Have hard offers from more than 20 countries. Trump doesn’t support a tax increase on the wealthy. Asked about tariffs: I think you’ll see news by the end of the day. There’s been lots of de-escalating comments in the

The first report about Waltz came out a few hours ago and now CBS is reporting that he’s out along with deputy Alex Wong. The initial report says US Special Envoy to the Middle East could be Steve Witkoff who has been negotiating with Russia and Iran. The again, there was a hit on Witkoff

We expect to see GDP revised. GDP decline may have been due to inventory stocking of imports. US households consumption is strong. 2 year yields below Federal Funds Rate is signal that the Fed should cut rates. Our policies will bring down inflation. The bolded comment is a classic “rule of thumb” in the markets.

The Q1 GDP was released this week, leading to new estimates for Q2 from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth model. In its first estimate yesterday, it forecasts a 2.4% growth rate. Today, that story is different with the estimate now at 1.1%. As the data releases happen, volatility in the index can be quite substantial

US stocks have moved higher led by sharp gains in Meta and Microsoft after the close yesterday. That has the USDJPY moving higher with a bit of risk on and dovish comments from BOJ Ueda. The EURUSD and GBPUSD have seen down and up price action today. IN this video, I take a technical look

China is out for a 5-day holiday, beginning today, Thursday, May 1, 2025. Markets are closed. There will be no PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading sessions ahead. Chinese markets reopen on Tuesday, May 6. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ press conference: USD/JPY extends gains as Ueda delivers more dovish messaging BOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainty stemming from trade policies have heightened sharply BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation to cool down due to tariffs, slower global growth BOJ governor Ueda: Timing of next rate hike could be swayed a lot depending on tariffs BOJ governor

US & Ukraine have signed the closely watched minerals deal – Bloomberg cite a person familiar with the matter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

All three documents were signed General partnership overseeing the group located in Delaware 50% of royalties will come from new natural resource projects in Ukraine Ukraine deal can be a model for similar international deals It doesn’t sound like they’re anticipating any problems with Ukraine’s parliament. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil futures settled at $58.21. That’s down -$2.21 or -3.7%. The low price today reached $57.94. The high price was at $60.39. The price traded to the lowest level: back to April 9. The settlement is the first below 60 since April 8. The lowest close this year was at

The USDCHF continued its move to the upside after breaking above the 100-hour moving average at 0.82556. That level became a springboard for buyers, who stepped in and pushed the pair higher during the session. Earlier in the week, the 200-hour moving average (green line) provided support, helping to form a base for the current

Prior month 0.7% revised to 0.6% Construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate Details from the Census Bureau: Total Construction March 2025 spending: $2,196.1B, down -0.5% (±0.8%) from February’s $2,206.9B Up 2.8% (±1.2%) from March 2024’s $2,135.8B Year-to-date (Jan–Mar 2025): $485.7B, up 2.9% (±1.0%) from $472.2B in same period 2024 Private Construction Total private spending: $1,688.0B,

EV sales down 39% Hybrids up 29.6% ICE up 17.5% This is an interesting number because it shows that the race to beat the tariffs was real. That’s going to create a bullwhip effect down the line and it shows a real effect on consumer behaviour. That’s going to lead to a blockbuster April retail

In the European session we don’t have much on the agenda given that it’s a holiday in Europe and therefore we should have a quiet session. There’s just the final UK Manufacturing PMI, which is most likely going to be ignored. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM

‘Buy America’ is the theme as the market anticipates some kind of trade deal to be announced later today. That’s led to strong US dollar bids across the board that have accelerated in the last hour. In addition, stock markets are at the highs of the day with the S&P 500 up 1.4% and the

This is it? Are they going to unveil the first trade deal or at least the details? If that’s the case, make sure to follow the news until the US market close as that would be HUGE for the markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The near 3% drop today sees oil poised for a potential decline of over 10% this week with not much reprieve in sight. The previous low in April this year touched $55.15 before a bounce on the tariffs pause. But even then, it hardly resulted in a change in confidence in the oil market. In

It’s an impressive day for the US dollar as the Dollar Index breaks above 100 with a broad bid. The chart here looks like something of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern that targets a rise to 102.00. The market is beginning to shift away from recessionary pricing and Fed cuts. A June cut is still high

The headliners for earnings after the close today are Meta and Microsoft and whatever they deliver on earnings will be critical for those stocks and the Nasdaq. More broadly, I’ll be looking for a few things: 1) Indications on AI capex, including from Qualcomm 2) Any guidance around the strength of the consumer, though we

The 105,441 job cuts last month is 63% higher compared to the same month last year. That brings the year-to-date total to 602,493 layoffs now, which is the highest since 2020. For some context, the figure is some 87% higher compared to the first four months of 2024. It once again underscores the impact of

Prior was 46.3 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is just crossing now, it should be good for risk assets. Yuyuantantian is a Chinese social media account affiliated with China Central Television (CCTV). It operates generally on Weibo and has reported on China’s stance regarding US tariffs before and generally reflects state-sanctioned views. In short, this might be a legitimate sign that real

Bessent sounds like he got a good whipping before coming out with his remarks today. But if the idea is to try and convince that there is a plan, the headline remark doesn’t really help to be honest. The market needs the answer to this question: What are tariffs for? This article was written by

Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 2025 Earnings (USD): Adjusted EPS: $3.46 (BEAT; expected $3.21) Revenue: $70.1 billion (BEAT; expected $68.41 billion) Segment breakdown: Cloud revenue: $42.4 billion (no estimate provided) Productivity revenue: $29.9 billion (no estimate provided) Intelligent Cloud revenue: $26.8 billion (BEAT; expected $25.99 billion) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was 50.7 Prior was 50.2 Panelists noted an increased apprehension in product markets, mainly around the future direction of US trade policy Business confidence at 10 month low stocks of finished goods were reduced for a fifth month in a row, and to the greatest degree of the year so far I’m surprised that

Australian terms of trade data for Q1 2025 AUD barely changed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected — Background to this: Headlines crossing saying the BoJ is likely to slash its GDP forecasts – from 4 days ago Still to come is Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference at 0630 GMT / 0230 US Eastern time. This article was written by Eamonn

Microsoft (MSFT) is set to release its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings after the market closes today, Wednesday, April 30. Expectations are for: Earnings per share (EPS) of $3.22,or a year-over-year increase of 9.52% (from $2.94). Revenue is projected to reach around $68.4 billion, an increase of 10.57% rise from the same period last year ($61.86

Need to see de-escalation with China on tariffs. China needs to rebalance. If US, China can rebalance together, that would be a big deal. Tariffs situation with China will be a multi step process. Chinese economy is slowing down substantially, we will likely revisit Trump’s phase 1 trade deal. If holiday orders not placed, could

Trump tariffs to have ‘tremendously adverse’ impact on the US economy. They ‘hobble’ companies that rely on critical minerals supplies from China. About 40% of goods imported into the country were inputs for domestic production. The odds for a recession have gone up. Tariffs could be particularly problematic for the US clean energy sector. We

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Tesla board has begun a search for a CEO to succeed Elon Musk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 50.7 Prices paid 69.8 vs 70.3 expected Employment 46.5 vs 44.7 prior — New orders 47.2 vs 45.2 prior Production vs 48.3 prior Imports vs 50.1 prior This is a better number than last month and that may highlight a theme from the S&P Global report — that some orders are perking up

Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic shifts in global capital flows away from US assets. The rally is expected to extend through the year, with a target of USD 200,000 by year-end. Key Points: Capital Reallocation: Institutional investors are reallocating away

Japan’s economy is recovery moderately, although some weakness is still seen Economic growth likely to moderate Economic, price projections could change vastly depending on how countries deal with US tariffs Must pay due attention to financial, FX markets and impact to Japan’s economy, prices Expected to keep raising rates if economy, prices move in line

Ford has cancelled its FNV4 software platform, meant to unify vehicle systems across EVs and gas-powered cars. Rising costs and delays prompted the move; lessons from the project will inform future efforts. CEO Jim Farley’s “skunkworks” EV team in California is now the main focus for affordable, software-driven vehicles. Doug Field, a key hire from

Manufacturers are at the heart of the trade war and today’s ISM survey of the industry gave the market some solace: Orders aren’t collapsing. Combine that with largely upbeat commentary from corporates as Q1 earnings roll out and the world is feeling better about the tariff war. I’d caution that could be premature but there

What could’ve been a horrible month for major indices is ending up mixed. For the trading month, the: Dow industrial average still fell -3.18% However, the S&P only declined by -0.77%, while the NASDAQ index rose by 0.85%. For the trading day, the major indices staged a rally into the close. Both the Dow and

Manufacturing PMI 45.4 vs 44.0 prelim Prior 44.9 Key details: New orders and employment all decrease. Input cost inflation at 28-month high. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The start of the second quarter saw UK manufacturing buffeted by adverse global market conditions, rising cost pressures, deteriorating supply chains and increased trade

Prior 65.48k; revised to 65.09k Net consumer credit £0.9 billion vs £1.2 billion expected Prior £1.3 billion After a decrease of £1.0 billion in February, net borrowing of mortgage debt by UK individuals rebounded sharply in March by by £9.7 billion to £13.0 billion. Meanwhile, net consumer credit is seen falling with the annual growth

The market appears to be coming around to the idea that the US economy is fine, or at least that it was fine before April. The combination of upbeat commentary from Visa and the internals of yesterday’s GDP report has the market thinking that the economy is on strong footing. The recent initial jobless claims

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to correct lower as the market unwinds some of the stagflationary risk that was priced in in the past months. The de-escalation trend will likely remain intact until the first trade deal. The stagflationary pricing is what got gold to such high prices, and as we start to price out that

This was an interesting tease from Hassett on tariff deals: If you’d like the person in the middle of all that is Jamieson Greer and Howard Lutnick outside of China. And I’m sure they’re happy to talk to you about it; I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day. CNBC: So

Prior was 241K Continuing claims 1.916m vs 1.864m exp Note that all the claims appeared to be from New York State, which argues this was a quirk rather than a troubling turn in the jobs market. h/t @zerohedge This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Makhlouf is speaking and says: Price risks less clear in he medium term than the near. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the U.S. and China are nearly neck and neck in the race for AI chip leadership. Speaking on Capitol Hill, Huang stated, “China is not behind,” and clarified, “China is right behind us. We’re very, very close.” Huang’s comments come as the Trump administration prepares new restrictions on Nvidia’s chip

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 100 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 64 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 96 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 53 bps (55% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 118 bps

Many individuals and families across the United States face financial hardship, often struggling to cover essential expenses such as rent, utilities, childcare, and medical bills. Navigating the complex landscape of financial assistance programs can be overwhelming, especially for those who are unsure of where to start or what resources are available to them. This is

The Bank of Japan is expected to leave policy ucnahged today. As is always the case with Bank of Japan meetings there is no set time for the statement. Experience suggests 0230 to 0330 GMT ( 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time) is a reasonable time to expect it. What is known re timing is

The stock market bottomed a week after the April 2 announcement when President Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on April 9. That week we reached the peak in trade escalation and from that moment onwards, the risk/reward picture favoured the upside for the de-escalation trend. The negative data continues to be faded

It was a wild month for stock as they were battered in the first week of the month after ‘Liberation Day’ and fell to the lows on April 7. From there it was a choppy path back, culminating in a seven-day rally. How much optimism about a trade deal is built in? We will have

It is mostly tech shares leading the charge though with Nasdaq futures marked up by 1.4% currently. The late rebound yesterday was certainly intriguing but it’s been followed up with some better earnings releases from Meta and Microsoft. Dip buyers are continuing to hold the line with the S&P 500 looking to build on last

Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing April 2025, final 51.7 prior 52.1 the flash was 51.7 also This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The crude oil market experienced a rough month due to Trump’s aggressive tariffs announcement on April 2 that made the market to expect lower demand on the slowdown in the global economy coupled with higher supply as OPEC+ planned to increase production by more than expected. We saw a strong rebound though on April 9

In the bigger picture, the pair is seeing a neat double-bottom bounce off the 140.00 mark. And the jump higher today sees the pair now move to its highest in three weeks. It’s largely a yen move here as the BOJ left interest rates unchanged, before governor Ueda came out to deliver some less hawkish

The outlook could be less accurate than before We can’t ignore US tariffs But also should not overemphasise their impact If US tariffs are zero or at low level, then quicker rate hike could be possible But no need to raise rates hastily when underlying inflation is stalling For not wanting to put too much

This is definitely an interesting comment, especially coming from someone in Ueda’s position. Even if he isn’t in the know, it would be less than prudent to speculate as such though. Or maybe I’m just reading too much into it. But either way, good to keep this in the back of your mind just in

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered in between 1.1250 through to 1.1330. The expiries don’t tie in to any technical significance but could play a part in limiting price action, especially to the downside in the session ahead. That

Bloomberg with the news snippet EU to present new trade proposals to US negotiators next week Bloomberg is gated, but the gist of it is that the European Union is set to unveil fresh trade proposals to U.S. negotiators next week. Although the specifics are still undisclosed, the renewed talks come at a time of

Tariffs could negatively impact corporate profits and wage negotiations next year But it doesn’t mean we have to wait for all of that to make a policy decision Even when US tariffs are decided, the impact would be hard to read This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

But would expect underlying inflation to gradually pick up eventually Expect inflation, wage growth to slow down due to tariffs, slower growth Outlook is not as certain as it was before Timing of underlying inflation to achieve 2% goal will be somewhat delayed Appropriate to support the economy while maintaining easy monetary environment Will guide

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected – Tesla sales fell nearly 60% in April in France Tesla board begins quiet search for possible Musk successor – more on this Tesla has opened a search for a CEO to succeed Elon Musk – Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatens Iran: “You will pay the

US Q1 advance GDP -0.3% vs +0.3% expected ADP April US employment +62K vs +115K expected US March PCE core +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus 0.0% estimate EIA weekly crude oil inventories -2696K vs +429K expected Trump: Carney called yesterday and said ‘let’s make a deal’ Meta EPS $6.43

Japanese media had the reports earlier, in brief: Bank of Japan is likely to revise down GDP forecasts May lower both Fiscal Year 25 and FY26 GDP forecasts to below 1% Nikkei (gated) has more. The Bank of Japan statement is due today. There is no specific time that the Bank announce. Its reasonable to

South Korea April 2025 exports +3.7% vs. expected -2.0% and prior 3.0% imports -2.7% vsl expected -7.0%, prior +2.3% The exports surprise may have been pipeline stuffing ahead of tariffs (Trump paused tariffs only a few days after the announcement disaster). Just a guess. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. Senate narrowly rejects bipartisan measure to block Trump tariffs. This was a symbolic slap-on-the-wrist thng. The House would not have passed the bill. So, interesting, but not market moving. *** Earlier we had an admission of no trade talks with China at all yet from one of Trump’s minions: United States trade representative

United States trade representative Jamieson Greer: initial trade deals to be announced in weeks, not months says he is meeting with Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Guyana on Thursday not close on India trade deal, having calls with India’s trade imnister No further details. Of course. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NQ, ES and the other indices all opened higher. The above is a CFD reflecting ES. It had a huge bounce from lows on Wednesday, carrying on after Globex reopened. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

London markets will be open for trading though but the other major hubs in Europe are all closed in observance of Labor Day. As such, there will be lighter flows in general but that won’t stop an already busy-looking market to start the new month. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, keeping with

NOTE: MY BAD. i HAD THIS WRITTEN BUT DIDN’T REALISE I HAD FORGOTTEN TO PUBLISH THIS EARLIER. APOLOGIES. — Australia Trade Balance for March 2025: AUD6900mn surplus expected +3200mn, prior +2968mn Exports +7.6% m/m prior -3.6% Imports -2.2% m/m prior +1.6% Earlier: Australian Export Q1 price index +2.1% q/q (prior +3.6%) & import +3.3% q/q

Tesla’s board has begun early discussions with executive search firms to explore potential successors to CEO Elon Musk, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. The move reflects growing investor concern over Musk’s demanding schedule across multiple companies: Some directors, including Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, have been meeting with major investors to reassure

United States trade representative Jamieson Greer admits there are no official talks with China on trade. We all know this, but Trump keeps making misleading announcements on China talks. Earlier: US Trade Rep Greer says ‘initial’ trade deals are still weeks away This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking: After a certain amount of time there will be a tariff wall for pharmaceutical companies interest rates should go down he should reduce interest rates I understand interest rates better than him This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted the main points here: Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected In very brief: kept interest rates steady, short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5% by a unanimous vote cut its growth forecasts cited the damage to global demand from higher U.S. tariffs impacting Japan’s nascent economic recovery BOJ Governor Ueda press

Via BNP Paribas analysts, looking for a stronger euro still: “If European investors agree with our view that there could be a rotation out of U.S. assets with the euro a key beneficiary, hedge ratios could rise or dollar asset allocations could be reduced.” could drive a higher EUR/USD the sensitivity of the euro to

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing April 2025 Final prior 48.4, preliminary 48.5 From the report: Commenting on the latest survey results, Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Business conditions continued to weaken across Japan’s manufacturing industry in April, with firms noting steeper falls in both overall new orders and new

The WSJ reports that Republicans are looking at a proposal that the Biden administration had floated: Limiting the deductibility of corporate salaries above $1m. The move would raise around $20 billion per year, which still leaves a huge funding cap. Bessent said this week that Republicans are looking to pass the bill before July 4,

Meta announced better-than-expected earnings and revenues: EPS $6.43 versus $5.21 estimate. Revenues $42.31B versus $41.36B estimate Advertising revenue $41.39 billion versus $40.55 billion Guide 2Q revenues $42.5 billion – $45.5 billion versus $44.41 billion estimate Lower FY total expenses forecast to $113 billion – $118 billion from $114 billion – $119 billion. Shares of Meta

UK business confidence improved to its highest level since September 2023, according to the latest Institute of Directors (IoD) syrvey The IoD’s confidence index rose from -58 in March to -51 in April. Hiring expectations turned positive for the first time since September, while investment intentions also picked up. Chief economist Anna Leach said concerns

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a stern warning to Iran over its support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been targeting Red Sea shipping in support of Palestinians. On social media, Hegseth wrote: “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.” The warning comes just days before U.S. and Iranian

The WSJ reports comments from Senator Lindsay Graham: Says he has 60 co-sponsors of bill to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil Predicts that number will rise to at least 67 “It’s clear to me—and I think it’s becoming clear to President Trump—that the Russians are playing games,” The bill would put 500% sanctions on

U.S. Treasury announces agreement to establish United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund United States and Ukraine signed an agreement on Wednesday to establish United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund Treasury Department and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation will work together with Ukraine to finalize program governance and advance this important partnership Agreement signals clearly to Russia that

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is scheduled to report its Q1 2025 earnings after the market closes today, Wednesday, April 30.​ Earnings Expectations Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts anticipate an EPS of $5.21, representing an 11% increase from $4.71 in Q1 2024. Revenue: Projected at $41.36 billion, marking a 13% year-over-year growth from $36.45 billion Key

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index saw sharp selling in the first hour of trading today, dropping nearly 500 points to a session low of 16,959.53. At the lows, the index was nearing key support from the 200-hour moving average (currently at 16,940) and the rising 50-hour moving average (around 16,959). Buyers stepped in at those levels, halting

Trump will be speaking Wednesday: 11 am Cabinet meeting (1500 GMT) 4 pm ‘Investing in America’ remarks (2000 GMT) 8 pm NewsNation Cuomo Townhall: The First 100 Days (0000 GMT) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

TSLA Short Trade Analysis and Execution Plan Current Price and Key Levels: Current Price: $286.35 Today’s VWAP: $288.51 Today’s VAL: $287.96 April 25th VAH (Key Short Entry Level): $286.87 Entry Strategy: Ideal Short Entry: Near $286.87 (April 25th VAH) Stop Loss Placement: Conservative: $288.92 (Above today’s VWAP) More Protective: $289.78 (Above today’s VAH) Note: Adjust

Treasury Secretary Bessent says Pres. Trump has created negotiating leverage On the verge of becoming an AI superpower The IRS revenue is up One way of collecting additional revenue is to collect capital gains taxes from liquidation of positions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Says Carney will come to the White House That’s tentatively a good sign. USD/CAD is at the lows of the day, down 35 pips to 1.3798. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Does not want China’s products unless they are fair Fairness with China includes IP I want China to do well, I want every country to do well Core GDP was up despite distortions The question is how patient the market can be for some of these deals. I don’t believe anyone really knows what will

Final Q4 GDP was 2.4% annualized Final Q3 reading was +2.8% annualized Consumer spending: +1.8% vs +4.0% prior GDP final sales (excluding inventories): -2.5% vs 3.3% prior GDP price index (GDP deflator): 3.7% vs 3.0% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): 3.5% vs 3.3% expected PCE price index: 3.6% vs 2.4% prior PCE services

New York Post says that Elon Musk is no longer working from White House. Musk’s time working so directly for Trump was always going to be limited so the news shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. The timing was uncertain though. His unpaid special government employee role ends officially in May. Main points: Musk

Major European indices are closing with results. In Germany today, a slew of economic data needed a mixed picture. Preliminary figures from Destatis showed that annual inflation eased slightly to 2.1% in April from 2.2% in March, though it came in just above the consensus estimate of 2.0%. Meanwhile, the economy showed modest signs of

Bloomberg writes “The draft agreement, which envisages creating a joint fund to manage Ukraine’s investment projects, has been finalized and may be signed as soon as Wednesday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.” It further adds “As part of the agreement, the US and Ukraine will seek to

There were rumors yesterday that India was close to the finish line and that makes sense because deals can be passed without parliament there but I don’t know if the market has the patience for what’s shaping up. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

From Reuters: Saudi officials in recent weeks have briefed allies and industry exports, telling they the Kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices. Oil is down on the headline. The context here is that Saudis are trying to threaten countries that aren’t complying with quotas and/or overproduction payback. This could all come

📊 OrderFlow Intel Analysis & Prediction Update on Gold Futures 🔍 1. Key Recent Price Action & Levels: 3280.9 (April 28th VAL): Price showed clear signs of buyer absorption at this crucial support area, marking a potential reversal point. 3295.2 (Current VAL): Now acts as an immediate resistance. Price approaching this level from below signals

Those favoring no change wanted to gain more info on US tariffs, backed a wait-and-see approach Members favoring a cut cited muted near-term inflation risks and signs of economic weakness Those favoring a cut highlighted need for timely action, given lags Everyone agreed there was a great deal of uncertainty and the situation could change

Prior was +244K Gasoline -4003K vs -1031K expected Distillates +937K vs -1566K expected Private inventories from the API late yesterday: Crude +3760K Gasoline -3140K Distillates -2520K This is a good report for the bulls but the oil market is focused on demand months from now due to the trade war. There is also the OPEC

It’s a choppy day in the foreign exchange market, which isn’t unusual at month-end, particularly in a very volatile month. The US dollar had been slackening in the last hour broadly but there is some life in stocks now and the dollar has rebounded. At the same time, the euro is particularly soft. It’s tough

The initial estimate for Q2 growth from the Atlanta Fed GDP model is estimated at 2.4%. The Q1 GDP was released morning with the first Guinness at -0.3%. The gold adjusted estimate from the Atlanta Fed estimate of -1.5%. In their own words: The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual

Crude Oil Futures Order Flow Intel: Bullish Momentum Building (Prediction Score: +6) Crude oil futures (current price: 59.82) are showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The professional order flow intel analysis identifies strong buyer interest emerging at current price levels after sustained earlier selling. Why a Prediction Score of +6? The bullish bias of

German inflation remains a bit of a sticking point for the ECB. But at this point, the central bank can be thankful for a softening economic backdrop to reinforce their position on rate cuts. Core annual inflation in Germany was seen at 2.6% in March, so that will be again the key estimate to watch

Sector Overview The US stock market paints a troubling picture today, with red dominating the heatmap. The technology sector is notably weak, marked by significant losses. Leading the decline is Microsoft (MSFT) at -1.32%, and Oracle (ORCL) sliding by -2.34%. The semiconductor industry is bleeding as well, with Nvidia (NVDA) experiencing a drop of 2.77%,

The Financial Times with the report on Trump’s top economic adviser Stephen Miran addressing investors last Friday. . FT is gated, but in brief: Some participants found Fridays meeting counter-productive two people describing Miran’s comments around tariffs and markets as “incoherent” or incomplete and one of them saying Miran was “out of his depth” “[Miran]

Trump is washing his hands of the stock market. This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.”

Crude oil futures settled down $1.63 at $60.42 today,. That is a decline of -2.63%. Technically, the next key target comes near the $60 level. The 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low comes in at $59.96. Just below that is the swing low from April 16 which comes in at $59.86.

Yesterday, the GBPUSD reached a fresh high of 1.34413—its strongest level since February 2022—but the rally stalled just 7-8 pips above the 2024 high at 1.3433. That failed break marked a turning point, and sellers have since regained control. On the hourly chart, the price action today has shifted more definitively to the downside. After

The EURUSD is pushing to fresh lows for the day—and for the week—after breaking below Monday’s low at 1.3287. With bearish momentum building, the next downside targets include last week’s low at 1.1307, followed by a key support zone on the daily chart between 1.1271 and 1.1275. The 1.1271 level marks the 61.8% retracement of

Gold is back to flat today after falling earlier. The market is now pricing in 131 bps in Fed easing in the coming year, up 6 bps from yesterday following a couple of poor economic data readings today. The view is that the Fed will cut despite rising inflation as the economy slows. Technically, this

Chinese markets will be closed from tomorrow (1 May) until Monday next week (5 May), in observance of Labor Day. However, that won’t halt any plays on US-China trade relations. But as things stand, we’re not seeing either side be willing to pick up the phone. In any case, we should be seeing a bit

The USDCHF is once again testing its 200-hour moving average, currently at 0.8217, after failing to sustain a break above the 100-hour moving average at 0.82626. This marks several days of price action being confined between these two technical levels, keeping traders on watch for a decisive move. The 100-hour MA has repeatedly capped upside

The US and Ukraine ran into last-minute hurdles on Wednesday as they were on the verge of signing a framework minerals deal, according to the FT. The report said that Ukraine had sought to revisit terms agreed on the weekend but it could still be signed if Ukraine returned to the original terms. However Ukraine

Prior +2.3% HICP m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% A touch above expectations but nothing that will change the ECB’s plan of cutting rates in June. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NQ, ES and the other indices all opened lower. The above is a CFD reflecting ES. It had a decent rally on Tuesday, some give back to begin evening trade . Opportunity for the BTD folks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Economy Slips into Negative Growth Amid Tariff Worries The U.S. economy reported negative GDP growth for the first time since 2022, raising concerns among traders and investors. Markets reacted negatively at the open, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.3% and the NASDAQ falling by 1.8%. Although the underlying economic details remain somewhat stable, the

Bloomberg reports that companies from defence, tech, healthcare and consumer products industries as well as investment funds have been invited to attend and have their products on display in the residence’s foyer. As always, watch out for tariff related headlines and trade deals comments. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -10.7 As mentioned for the Swiss KOF Index previously, the consumer and business sentiment indicators are not surprising at all given the uncertainty around US trade policy and the hit to global growth. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, briefly breaking above a key swing area near 0.6430–0.6442. However, the breakout quickly failed, and the price reversed lower—signaling a bull trap and a shift in short-term momentum. The reversal led to a decisive break below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (0.6390–0.6398), a zone that had

Prior +0.2% GDP Q1 Y/Y +1.2% vs +1.1% expected Prior +1.2% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

“I Do as the President Says”: Musk’s Edgy Pulse Check on Federal Employees In a moment dripping with Muskian wit at President Trump’s live Cabinet meeting today, Elon Musk, not shy of controversy, explained the blunt reasoning behind his recent email “pulse check” to the federal workforce. “Do you have a pulse? Do you have

The major US stock indices are except open lower with the NASDAQ index under the most pressure. In premarket trading, the futures are implying: Dow industrial average -350 points. The index rose 300.03 points yesterday S&P index -76 points. The index rose 32 points yesterday NASDAQ index -330 point. The index rose 95.18 points yesterday

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 April -4.2% vs -12.7% prior Reminder: Trump will speak at an “Investing in America” event at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT Italy April preliminary CPI (HICP) +2.1% vs +2.3% y/y expected Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected China’s Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations Switzerland UBS

Prior month +2.0% Pending home sales 6.1 vs 1.0% estimate Index 76.5 vs 72 last month According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates. While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable

The comments from the Visa conference call regarding the consumer and the global macroeconomy were really something. They highlight that consumers are employed and that, as long as they remain that way, they’re going to keep on spending. Some direct quotes from executives on the call: “In Q2 and through April 21, we have not

The other German state releases around the same time: Hesse CPI +xx% vs +2.4% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +xx% vs +2.3% y/y prior Saxony CPI +xx% vs +2.5% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +xx% vs +1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +xx% vs +2.2% y/y prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Trump congratulated PM Carney on his election win the two agreed on the importance of Canada & the US working together as independent, sovereign nations agreed to meet in person in the near future This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

SMCI – which has been criticized for their accounting practices in recent past – preannounced their earnings estimates, and it is not good: Revenues $4.5 – $4.6 billion versus previous estimate of $5.0 – $6.0 billion EPS $0.29 – $0.31 versus previous estimate $0.46 – $0.62. According to the release, during Q3 some delayed customer

Prior was +155K (revised to +147K) Goods producing +26K Service providing +34K Pay gains for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.6% prior Pay growth for job changers 6.9% vs 6.5% prior This is the worst reading since July and adds a downside risk to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. This article was written by Adam Button at

Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Prior was +2.8% (revised to +3.0%) Core m/m +0.0% vs +0.1% exp Unrounded core PCE +% vs +0.38% m/m prior Supercore (services ex-shelter) vs +3.34% y/y prior Services inflation vs +0.375% m/m prior Headline PCE Headline PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.2% expected Deflator +0.0% m/m vs +0.0% expected Unrounded

Will continue to sell $42 billion in 10s This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved higher in today’s trading, pushing up to test both the 200-hour moving average at 1.3845 and the 100-hour moving average just above at 1.3854. These levels now define the near-term technical ceiling. A firm move above both MAs—with momentum—would open the door to further upside targets. The first level to watch

Trump will deliver ‘Investing in America’ remarks on Wednesday afternoon, US Eastern time Chinese markets closed tomorrow, Thursday, through to reopening on Tuesday next week US media report – Elon Musk no longer working from White House Australian Treasurer Chalmers says says the market expects more interest rate cuts * China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for

ANZ business survey, business confidence and activity both lower than in March. April 2 was when Trump announced his huge tariffs, though he did back track on them somewhat. Business confidence fell 9 points to 49.3 Expected own activity fell 1 point to 47.7 ANZ comments: past own activity (the best GDP indicator in the

Prior -12.7% Market index 223.7 vs 233.5 prior Purchase index 146.6 vs 153.4 prior Refinance index 649.0 vs 673.6 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.89% vs 6.90% prior This is never a market moving release. Of course, as long term interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall. The mortgage market index and the US30Y yield are inversely

The previous month’s PMIs, March 2025, showed the fastest in a year ahead of US tariffs. The April results have fallen back, as was expected. There is probably worse to come in the months ahead as the tariff impact bites deeper. China March official Manufacturing PMI 49.0, this is a 16-month low expected 49.8, prior

US March advance goods trade balance -161.99BB vs -147.85B prior US April consumer confidence 86.0 vs 87.5 expected JOLTS March job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M estimate US advanced wholesale inventories for March 0.5% versus 0.5% last month. Estimate 0.0% Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants Trump says he will focus on

When an extraordinary event occurs, the first thing on investors’ minds is how it will affect the markets and, more importantly, how to avoid losses and profit from the situation. The widespread blackout that Spain and Portugal witnessed across the countries on Monday is one such event. The exact cause of the power grid collapse

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

NVDA Stock Alert: Critical Levels Amid New AI Model Developments NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has experienced significant downward pressure, declining over 4% recently and now approaching a critical support level at $103.50. Investors are encouraged to closely monitor this key technical area, as it may indicate whether sufficient buying interest emerges to stabilize the stock and

Prior +0.9% The agency notes “This new rise in prices should be explained by the increase in services prices, in particular transport, and food. Conversely, energy prices should fall again in April, while prices of manufactured products and tobacco should remain virtually unchanged over the month.” Inflation hasn’t been a problem for France for a

The US personal income and consumption report is due at 10 am and the GDP report offers some insights into what is coming. The first hint is on inflation and those numbers were hot in the GDP report, which means upside risks. Guy Lebas from Janney sees that rolling in at +0.4% in light of

Prior month 0.4% Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus expectations of 0.0% Goods producing industries -0.6% versus +1.1% last month last month Services producing industries -0.1% versus +0.1% last month 12 of 20 industries declined in the month of February Advanced estimate for the month of March 0.1% details of the report: Following two consecutive

French Finance Minister Lombard says he discussed idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with Scott Bessent, and Bessent told him this was not unrealistic. This would be great news if we eventually get to such resolution. The market meanwhile continues to rally on positive expectations as the de-escalation remains the trend. This article was written by

Japan March retail sales % y/y expected +3.5%, prior +1.4% and % m/m prior +0.5% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Analysis for Today – TradeCompass Current Price of Gold Futures, at the time of this analysis: 3,316 Market Context: Gold is hovering just above today’s and yesterday’s Value Area Low, and just beneath a cluster of key levels—including the VWAPs of April 27th and 28th (both at 3,317). This confluence is acting as

Prior 103.9 (revised to 103.2) No surprise here as business confidence got hit all over the world after the April 2 announcement. You can see in the chart below how the business confidence just kept on improving steadily with the SNB rate cuts. Now that we have the trade war uncertainty and global growth slowdown

A notable detail from Howard Lutnick’s interview on CNBC today was that the US has a trade deal with one country ready to go — pending ratification from a country’s parliament and leadership. That was followed up by Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino who wrote that “word on Wall Street” was that it was India or

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.2% German retail sales fell back in March and that follows a more negative revision to the February numbers as well. The year-on-year reading at least still shows a 2.2% increase in retail sales compared to March last year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the video above, I kickstart the US day with a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For EURUSD, yesterday’s price action found support at the 100-hour moving average, with several failed attempts to break above the 200-hour moving average. Today, the pair opened between the two

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior 26k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from Australia for the January – March quarter and for March month, 2025. Headline inflation: +2.4% y/y expected 2.2%, prior 2.4% +0.9% q/q expected %, prior 0.2% Trimmed mean (a measure of core, or underlying inflation) 2.9% y/y expected 2.9%, prior 3.2% 0.7% q/q expected 0.7%, prior 0.5% Weighted median (an alternative core

Japan Industrial Production for March 2025, preliminary, % m/m expected -0.4%, prior 2.3% and % y/y prior +0.1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China needs to adapt to changing situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations. China to adjust economic plan based on global change. To promote transformation of traditional industries. There’s nothing new here. Chinese officials continue to repeat the same old stuff but we haven’t really seen any strong action yet. This article was

orderFlow Intel: Nasdaq Futures Analysis Now Nasdaq futures (NQ) are currently trading at a critical juncture around 19560, a key area anchored by yesterday’s VWAP—a crucial dynamic benchmark widely respected by professional traders. The current positioning around this level suggests moderate bullish momentum, though clarity is needed to confirm direction. Today’s price action has been

Japan govt official on factory output: Environment surrounding production remains highly uncertain March motor vehicle production down 5.9%m/m due to lower exports, part supply disruption Some manufacturers expressed concern about U.S. tariffs Not heard directly U.S. tariff measures have forced manufacturers to change production plan CopyThe data is here, its pretty poor: Japan March 2025

Prior +0.3% The bulk of the decline owes to energy prices. If you strip that out, import prices were only seen down 0.3% on the month. Looking at the breakdown, there were also falls in prices for intermediate goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.4%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.1% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 comes in lower than March but better than expected at 50.4 expected 49.9, prior 51.2 more to come Earlier from China, the official PMIs: China April official Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (expected of 49.5) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% GDP Y/Y +0.6% vs +0.4% y/y expected Prior +0.6% The agency notes “The first quarter of 2025 has had one working day less with respect to the previous quarter and two working days less than the same quarter of previous year. The quarter on quarter change is the result of an increase of

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and guide monetary policy. There are

Prior +2.1% Core CPI Y/Y 2.1% vs 1.7% prior The agency notes: “The increase of the growth on annual basis of All-item index was mainly due to the prices of Regulated energy products (from +27.2% to +32.9%), of Services related to transport (from +1.6% to +4.4%), of Unprocessed food (from +3.3% to +4.2%) and of

The euro has fallen out of bed. Apart from what has already been posted there is no obvious smoking gun. Chinese PMIs dropped, indicative of Trump tariffs biting. And it won’t just be China suffering such drops. USD/JPY is a touch better bid also. GBP/USD is a little lower also. US equity index on Globex

Prior 0.0% The average house price in the UK is seen easing a little to £270,752, with Nationwide noting that the market is “likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, we have the French, German and Italian inflation figures, which shouldn’t sway the ECB from cutting in June unless we get a resolution on the trade war front. We will also get the Eurozone Flash Q1 GDP reading but as it’s always the case for the GDP data, it’s old news.

Prior -0.2% GPD Q1 Y/Y -0.2% vs -0.2% prior The agency notes “The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 – following adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations – after decreasing at the end of 2024 (-0.2% in the fourth quarter

A slew of earnings have been released with mixed results. Starbucks was a disappointment. Snap is also lower in despite what seems to be a beat. Snap Inc (SNAP) Q1 2025: Adj. EBITDA 108.4M (BEAT; exp. 65.4M), Revenue 1.36B (MET; exp. 1.35B). The company omits Q2 guidance due to uncertainty. The stock is trading down

There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at 1.1390 and that rests in between the key hourly moving averages of 1.1372 and 1.1401 at the moment. The expiries could help to lock in price action before we get to

The S&P index rose for it 6th consecutive day. Yesterday the NASDAQ index snapped a five day went streak with a modest point. Over all the major indices were up in trading today. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 300.03 points or 0.75% at 40527.62. S&P index up 32.08 points

The market is growing more dovish on the outlook for rates. Two-year yields shown here are on track for the lowest close since September when the market was wrapped up in the idea of rate cuts and job losses. It’s an interesting day to look at the Fed funds curve because there is a meeting

Australian Treasurer Chalmers says the market expects more Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts after today’s inflation figures he doesn’t see anything in the data to substantially alter market expectations Chalmers wants more rate cuts from the RBA, and, more importantly, he wants the voting public to expect the same and to give his

Via twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.5mn barrels Distillates -1.7mn bbls Gasoline -1.2 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Toyota Motor and Alphabet’s Waymo have announced a new partnership to co-develop autonomous driving platforms and explore innovations in next-generation personally owned vehicles (POVs). Toyota and Waymo will jointly create an autonomous driving system for future models. The collaboration will also focus on improving self-driving capabilities in privately owned vehicles. Both companies are looking at

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is speaking in an interview with Fox ‘News’: No trade deal is done until Trump announces it Trump needs to sign off on 18 key trade deals, he is involved in talks There is a plan for changes to auto tariffs The tax deal will make auto loans for US-made cars

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note late last week, htat he is not confident forecasting a level for the dollar: “I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than

Major indices have moved to new session highs. The Dow industrial average leads the chart with the gain of 0.87%. The S&P and NASDAQ are running neck and neck with a rise of 0.68%. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 is which along nicely with a gain 0.80% today. Chatter that there is deals on the

UK Lloyds Business Barometer for April 2025 comes in at a three month low of 39% prior 49% long-run average is 29% gauge of economic optimism fell by 13 points to 28% 70% of businesses expect to raise prices in the coming 12 months Info comes via a Reuters report, which adds in on a

China will be on holidays from May 1 to May 5 (five days in total). This is to celebrate Labour Day. Markets will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, May 1, 2025, and reopen on Tuesday next week. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is speaking at a rally. Trump is speaking across topics. Tariffs, China and what have you. Its no secret he is not a fan of Powell. Trump wants lower rates and so far Powell has not accommodated him. Trump brought Powell on to head the Fed in early 2018. This article was written by

It’s a busy session ahead for data. China’s April PMIs are expected to fall back a little from March, both the official and the unofficial. Trump tariffs should continue to bit in the months ahead. I posted on some analyst takes on jobs and economic activity: Goldman Sachs says Trump tariffs could endanger 16 million

John Paulson is billionaire hedge fund manager who leads his own firm, Paulson & Co. He likes gold a lot higher: near $5,000 an ounce by 2028 … the “high $4,000 range” Paulson says that estimate was put to him, adding that “It’s a well-informed prediction. I think that’s a reasonable number”. Citing: “As central

“If there Is no progress, US will step back as mediators in this process” I pray this war ends but Russia is in an interesting spot here. They can stall and it sounds like Trump would possibly turn to secondary sanctions if it falls apart but at the same time, he would drop military support

If auto makers can’t get parts we don’t want to penalize them There is great support for a tax deal Not at all worried about the auto industry India coming along great, think we have a deal on tariffs He will visit Africa He will speak to Australians More signs point to the first tariff

This isn’t a big surprise given the politics and reality in Europe, along with its clout. The US seems to be trying to use the UK as a wedge but all trade negotiations in the EU are tough. The deadline that matters for Europe is the 90 days after Liberation Day. If the US ramps

All of the deals will be incredibly smart and incredibly thoughtful If we cut our trade deficit in half, that’s 2 percentage points of GDP Americans are going to work in factories as technicians You’re going to see the greatest domestic resurgence in auto manufacturing in the next two years, and I’ll wear it You’re

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to be driven by the same factors over the last two weeks. That being the overall risk mood and potential headline risks. For today though, the loonie is also going to face risks from the Canadian election.

Prior was 4.7% y/y Monthly house price index +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Monthly home price indicators from the FHFA: +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% prior (revised to +0.3%) +3.9% m/m vs +4.8% prior (revised to +5.0%) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Spain PM says to release 3 days worth of Strategic Oil Reserves This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices ended the session with mixed results. Italy’s FTSE MIB led the way, rising 1.09%, supported by strength in auto and banking stocks. Reports suggesting auto tariffs may be less severe than expected helped lift sentiment, with notable gains from Stellantis (+4.0%) and Iveco (+2.3%). Banks also performed strongly, including UniCredit (+1.3%), Intesa

Crude Oil Analysis: Bearish Pressure Intensifies, Key Levels to Watch Crude Oil futures (CL) are currently trading at $61.13, reflecting an ongoing bearish sentiment across multiple timeframes. Integrating daily chart analysis, intraday volume profile, VWAP indicators, and order flow data reveals a cohesive picture of sustained bearish pressure, making the upcoming price moves highly significant.

Tariff revenue could be used for tax cuts I think tariffs will generate substantial revenues I learned to ignore survey data in my 35 years in the investment business Had substantial talks with Japan India easier to negotiate with than other countries Asia trading partners have been the most forthcoming Tax bill will give certainty

The USDJPY has edged to a new session low of 141.96, slipping just below the earlier low of 142.00. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has now moved into a key swing area between 141.64 and 142.11, a zone that dates back to August 2024. While price action dipped below this area in September 2024

Prior was -11.3 Revenue index vs +1.3 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Goldman Sachs has lowered its USD/CAD forecasts, citing resilient Canadian data, a supportive fiscal policy stance, and reduced expectations for BoC easing. While Canada’s exposure to the US limits CAD’s outperformance on the crosses, Goldman expects CAD to outperform USD over the rest of 2025. Key Points: First Signs of Trade War Impact Emerging: Canada’s

The Liberal party have won the election in Canada with 154 seats won vs 131 for the conservatives. There are 31 seats which have not been called. While the Liberals will form the government, it remains unclear if they will control a majority of votes in the House of Commons or require support from other

Synopsis: Goldman Sachs has revised its USDCAD forecasts lower, citing stronger-than-expected Canadian data, a supportive fiscal policy stance, and diminished expectations for Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cuts. While Canada’s close ties to the U.S. may limit broader gains on the crosses, Goldman expects the Canadian dollar to outperform the U.S. dollar through the remainder

Lutnick will also appear on CNBC at 2 pm ET Adjustments to auto tariffs are aimed at allowing domestic automakers time to growth US plants and employment Executive orders growth out of detailed conversations with domestic car makers Manufacturers of domestic autos will get a 15% offset for the value of those vehicles against parts

The major US stock indices are closing mixed/little changed in up-and-down trading today. A late day rally took the price back into positive territory for both the Dow and the S&P indices. The NASDAQ index so close marginally lower but well off its lows for the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average

Prior -14.5 Economic confidence 93.6 vs 94.5 expected Prior 95.2 (revised to 95.0) Industrial confidence -11.2 vs -10.1 expected Prior -10.6 (revised to -10.7) Services confidence 1.4 vs 2.2 expected Prior 2.4 (revised to 2.2) Again, no surprise with consumer and business confidence surveys slumping amid the trade uncertainty. Focus remains on trade negotiations and

The AUDUSD has broken decisively below a key technical zone that includes the 100-hour moving average, the 200-hour moving average, and a well-tested swing area between 0.6390 and 0.6395 (highlighted by red-numbered circles on the chart). That area had served as a support and resistance pivot multiple times in March/April, and the latest break tilts

Prior month 0.3% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Around 2.2% of China’s GDP is directly impacted by U.S. tariffs, according to a note from Nomura economists. They estimate that the U.S. accounted for 14.7% of China’s total goods exports in 2024, a figure that rises to 15.2% when including re-exports through Hong Kong, and to 20.6% when factoring in rerouted trade flows. After

The GBPUSD is extended another new high as the stocks move to a close and the day to an end. The pair is extending above the high from last week at 1.3423. The high off my chart from September 2024 reach 1.34333. The high price to reached 1.34393. That takes the price to the highest

JOLTS Job Openings: Lower Prior month 7.568 M revised to 7.480M Job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M Hires: Slightly Higher. Good for employment Total hires: 5.411 million (versus 5.370M last month) Hires rate: 3.4% (unchanged from last month) No significant changes across industries Total Separations: Lower. Good for employment Total separations: 5.137 million (versus 5.316M last

The US GDP report is due out tomorrow and the consensus is -0.3% but I suspect the market shifted to a worse number in light of the poor trade balance data released today. “After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the standard and alternative model nowcasts of the contribution of

The USDCHF is trading in a neutral zone, caught between the 100-hour moving average at 0.8271 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.82105. After a sharp decline earlier in April, the pair found repeated support in the 0.8097–0.8128 region, ultimately forming a base after they failed break to April lows at 0.80389. That led to

The USD is higher as the US trading session begins. The 3 major currency pairs have the USD up around 0.40% retracing some of the declines seen yesterday. US yields are marginally higher. The pairs also failed on technical breaks yesterday with the EURUSD and the USDJPY moving outside their 100/200 hour MAs (they are

The U.S. Dollar, the world’s reserve currency and the ultimate safe-haven asset, is now the world’s worst-performing major currency in 2025. Octa Broker explains why. The historical role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s leading safe-haven currency is under threat. Despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are fleeing the U.S. dollar, defying conventional safe-haven flows.

A report last week said China was considering waiving ethane tariffs, along with some other goods. Now Reuters reports that it’s official. The problem with ethane is that it was used to make plastics and putting on tariffs just drove up the costs of Chinese plastic goods. This article was written by Adam Button at

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a mixed bag of performances across various sectors, with the technology sector demonstrating notable resilience. Microsoft (MSFT) stands out with a rise of 0.67%, showcasing investor confidence amidst fluctuating market dynamics. Similarly, Apple (AAPL) has managed a modest gain of 0.41%, maintaining its appeal despite broader market uncertainties.

Step by step rate cuts may continue. It will depend on what happens with inflation, which depends on what happens with the labour market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The buyers in the EURUSD in the early US session tried to extend back above its 200-hour moving average at 1.13999, but fell short of the high for the day at 1.1422. The US session high reached 1.14168. The price has since rotated back down between the 100-hour moving average 1.13659 and the 200-hour moving

Indian, US officials meet in Washington, bilateral trade agreement talks make positive progress. Discussed a pathway for concluding the first tranche of the mutually beneficial trade pact. To hold in-person talks over various sectors from end-May. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that India might be the first trade deal that they will announce. These are

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Results on the east coast of Canada were weaker for the governing Liberal party and Mark Carney but the numbers began rolling in for vote-rich Ontario and Quebec in the last 30 minutes and there has been a shift in fortunes. The Liberals are doing particularly well in Quebec. Expect some volatility in these numbers

The high price in the GBPUSD last week reached 1.34234. That got within 10 pips of the 2024 high at 1.34334. The high price for today just stretched to a new high for the year but only by pip at 1.34244. Nevertheless, the price is stretching higher and keeping the buyers more in control. Get

S&P 500 Futures Deep Analysis and Outlook Current Market Context for ES Over the past two and a half trading sessions, the S&P 500 futures (ES) have traded in a defined range between approximately 5,488 and 5,568. This type of market action typically signifies an equilibrium point, where buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears) wrestle for

India is prepared to offer the US the “forward most favoured nation” clause Indian Govt: Indian, US officials meet in Washington, trade talks make positive progress Eurozone April final consumer confidence -16.7 vs -16.7 prelim ECB consumer survey shows 1 year inflation expectations rising to 2.9% Eurozone March M3 money supply +3.6% vs +4.0% y/y

Prior was 92.5 Present Situation Index 133.5 vs. 134.5 prior Expectations Index 54.4 vs 65.2 prior– lowest since 2011 12-month inflation expectations 7.0% vs 6.2% prior — highest since Nov 2022 Jobs hard-to-get at 16.6 vs 16.1 prior April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups The decline was

When it was announced that Bessent would be at the morning White House briefing, some thought he would be there to talk about an announcement. Evidently not as he re-hashed the usual talking points and added very little in the way of info around tax policy and tariffs. S&P 500 futures have fallen about 25

Eurozone March M3 money supply +3.6% vs +4.0% y/y expected Prior +4.0% Loans to households Y/Y 1.7% vs 1.5% prior Loans to companies Y/Y 2.3% vs 2.2% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

No time to rest on his laurels. He will be under a lot of scrutiny to see how he handles the ongoing situation with the US. That especially after getting Trump, or should I say the anti-Trump rhetoric, helped to turn their fortunes around. So, first thing’s first Carney is saying that he will be

China’s NDRC allocates second batch of 81 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer trade-in programs. — The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s State Planner. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

India is prepared to offer the US the “forward most favoured nation” clause as sweetener in trade talks. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude futures settled down $0.97 or 1.54% to $62.05 pressured by rising supply and tariff-driven growth concerns. Last week, OPEC+ surprised markets by adding 411,000 barrels per day in May, while U.S. shale production stayed near record highs.Discounted barrels from Iran and Russia have also boosted Asian inventories, worsening the glut. Technically,

CTV projects Carney’s Liberals will form a minority government. CAD had risen but was retracing even prior to this latest projection: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted comments earlier from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: China’s FM says concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive More now on Yi urging BRICS nations to resist U.S. tariff pressure, warns against appeasement. Speaking at a BRICS meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged emerging-market countries to stand firm against

US dollar selling and gold buying took a break last week but they’ve both returned today in tandem. The optimism about a quick resolution to tariffs is fading and the market is feeling angst about US growth again. That has gold up $31 today to $3349, which gets the market back to where it opened

Deutsche Bank preview of Friday’s non-farm payroll report for April: +125k headline forecast (consensus is 135K, prior 228K) jobless rate forecast is 4.2% (unchanged from March) Deutsche Bank says due to the timing of Easter and spring school breaks that March and APril results can be less predictable. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Bloomberg (gated) with the report, in brief: Iran is pitching a “trillion-dollar” investment opportunity to the US amid nuclear talks, aiming to ease sanctions and attract American industries to its energy and nuclear sectors. Tehran’s economic struggles have made it more open to cooperation, but corruption and deep mistrust still cloud the negotiations. The US

Adam posted this prior to the election, and it looks like its coming to fruition: The outcome I believe that could offer some downside in the loonie (in the 50-120 pip range) is a Liberal minority held up by the NDP. That would essentially extend the current status quo and leaves the Liberals at the

1 year inflation expectations rising to 2.9% vs 2.6% prior 3 year inflation expectations rising to 2.5% vs 2.4% prior 1 year growth expectations stable at -1.2% The rising inflation expectations shouldn’t be surprising given the trade war. Tariffs are a stagflationary shock. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Potential for sudden stops in capital flows, payment disruption and volatility in currency markets requires robust contingency planning. There are further signs that geopolitical considerations increasingly influence decisions to invest in gold. Recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce Euro Area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by

The early count is favouring Carney, but its way too early. Betting markets are showing improving odds for Poilievre. Long evening ahead is the best bet! If you are eyeing USD/CAD for clues … not much to go on right now: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

If US wants resolution, it should stop making threats. US should seek dialogue with China on tariffs. Tariffs war was launched by US. Nothing new here. The Chinese continue to repeat that they are open for dialogue and resolution but they won’t be the first to call since the ‘tariff war was launched by US’.

Bitcoin Analysis and Prediction for Today – Bullish Momentum, Key Levels, and Order Flow Insights Bitcoin futures (MBT Micro Bitcoin Futures) are trading at $95,640 today, slightly above the day’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $95,600. Recent sophisticated order-flow analysis—typically accessible only to institutional traders—highlights strong and increasing buying activity around crucial support zones.

NZ Finance Minister Nicola Willis pre-bidget speech – said Treasury’s latest forecasts show New Zealand’s economy is still expected to grow in the coming year, but worsening conditions — particularly following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — have dampened the outlook, cutting expected GDP growth for 2025 and 2026. She warned that weaker growth risks

Goldman Sachs note from Sudnay ICYMI US tariffs on Chinese imports could put as many as 16 million jobs at risk in China “If high US-China tariffs were to persist and Chinese exports were to fall precipitously, labour markets would surely feel the pressure” the 16 million jobs would be involved in the production of

Prior -24.5; revised to -24.3 That’s a decent improvement but GfK warns that tariffs uncertainty is still very much weighing on the broader outlook. So, that will be a bigger factor to consider in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a quiet calendar for the session ahead. And not, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today: Yen traders note – Japan is on holiday Tuesday 12.05pm Sydney time we hear from the RBA 0205 GMT 2205 US Eastern time on Monday, April 28, 2025 Keynote speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets)

Wall Street Journal says Trump to soften blow on automotive tariffs: preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US “Trump is expected to take the actions ahead of a trip to Michigan for a rally outside Detroit on

Via a Barclays note: US credit spreads are likely to widen in the coming six months Due to prevailing highly uncertain environment The background to this is that the spreads have come in over the past two weeks, from extremes after Trump’s April 2 tarif announcements. Since then, Barclays says prospects of trade agreements between

more to come White House official: Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs Preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs Trump has imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the U.S. Those actions are expected tomorrow These comments basically a

The latest projection is here: CTV projects Carney’s Liberals will form a minority government. This is less positive for the CAD if accurate. Sure enough …. CAD taking a hit: The USD is more broadly higher also, against EUR, AUD, Kiwi$, GBP This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mark Carney’s Liberals are currently ahead of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Adam spoke with Reuters about how the Canadian dollar might move on the election. Poilievre and Carney This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US politics. “GOP Sen. Rand Paul says he expects to have enough votes in Senate to pass resolution to effectively block Trump’s tarrifs. But Paul, who expects the vote Wednesday, attacked Speaker Johnson’s move to block such resolutions as “dishonesty.”” Info comes viua CNN politics reporter: *** The background to this, via Politico: The White

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a range recently as the market is now waiting for the details of the first trade deal, which is said to be announced this week or the next. We reached an inflection point last week following some very positive Trump’s comments and as the stagflationary risk kept on being

In the European session, the main highlight is the Spanish Flash CPI although it shouldn’t change anything for the ECB which is expected to cut again in June. Unless we get some resolution on the trade war, it’s unlikely that the central bank will be swayed from cutting. In the American session, we get the

Projections show Carney’s Liberals have won. Whether he’ll govern in majority or minority is still up for grabs. Still too early for that assessment to be made. CTV says Carney has won the election – too early to say if majority or minority though CAD rising against the USD: This article was written by Eamonn

Spain April Flash CPI Y/Y 2.2% vs 2.0% expected Prior 2.3% Core CPI Y/Y 2.4% vs 2.0% prior Higher than expected figures although they haven’t influenced much interest rates expectations for the ECB, which is expected to cut by another 25 bps in June. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

CTV says Carney has won the election – too early to say if majority or minority though. CBC saying the same now also. Carney confirmed as Prime Minister. This is the fourth consecutive win for the Liberals in Canada. The Conservatives were well ahead until Trump began his attacks on Canada. He has a talent

Japan’s leading life insurers are planning to cut their holdings of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by a combined 1.3 trillion yen ($9.1 billion) in fiscal 2025, marking a shift in strategy amid new capital regulations. According to their disclosed asset management plans, four of the top 10 insurers intend to reduce their JGB positions during

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: Concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive Dialogue can help resolve differences *** While US officials keep telling us that they are in contact with China over tariffs China is not seemingly responsive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Spain Q1 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.7% q/q expected Prior 0.7% Q1 GPD Y/Y 2.8% vs 3.1% expected Prior 3.4% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China’s 2nd batch of 81 bn yuan ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer trade-in * There is one Canadian election outcome that could hurt the loonie … and here it comes CAD sliding further now after projections show a minority Carney government is likely * Hidden damage: Trump tariffs threaten bigger blow to China’s economy,

Ray Dalio isn’t mincing words: the world is past the point of avoiding a historic realignment in trade, capital markets, and geopolitics. In a stark warning, the Bridgewater founder said hopes for a negotiated fix to the U.S.-led tariff battles are “naive.” The shift away from U.S.-centric trade and investment flows is already happening —

Despite rising concerns that U.S. assets may lose their edge to international markets, Morgan Stanley sees the recent sharp decline in the dollar as a potential lifeline for U.S. equities. “The weaker dollar should benefit large cap U.S. relative EPS revisions (particularly versus Europe and Japan)” “From a global standpoint, we recommend favoring U.S. over

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was seemingly on TV daily in the lead-up to Liberation Day and just afterwards. He delivered a belligerent message and promised that the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ wouldn’t be walked back (they were). Lutnick is a grating personality and has been loose with his words and his criticism of trading partners, causing

POLITICO cite a draft they have seen: UK and the European Union are set to sign a formal declaration committing to “free and open trade” leaked draft seen by POLITICO promises a “new strategic partnership” between London and Brussels based on “maintaining global economic stability and our mutual commitment to free and open trade.” A

I posted earlier on Nikkei: “Japan life insurers set to cut JGB holdings by $9bn” Via a Barclays note now, in brief: Japan’s largest four life insurers plan to reduce or stay flat in JGBs Many life insurers view super-long bonds as attractive compared to their liability costs, but they are unlikely to buy aggressively.

Tesla expects first Semi trucks to enter production by end-2025 at its Nevada gigafactory, with full ramp-up planned through 2026, according to Semi program head Dan Priestley. Annual production capacity is targeted at 50,000 units, as Tesla prepares for high-volume output over the next few quarters. Semi production has faced repeated delays, missing original 2019

US stocks close mixed/little changed A total of 12 of the 30 Dow stocks will announce earnings this week. US Q2 Treasury borrowing estimate soars to $514 billion Gold erases Friday’s drop, range now defined Crude oil settles at $62.05 Lutnick will be let out of the penalty box tomorrow There is one Canadian election

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The original US tax bill goal date was Memorial Day. US Treas Sec Bessent now says he hopes for July 4. Bessent met with ‘Big Six’ GOP leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, at 4 PM to discuss the party-line megabill and the approaching debt ceiling “X-date.” As for the

This week no fewer than 12 of the Dow 30 stocks will be announcing earnings this week including Coca Cola, Visa and Mastercard, Caterpillar, Apple and Amazon. . Below is the complete list, days and times for those releases. Tuesday: Before Open: UPS (UPS) Coca-Cola (KO) After Close: Visa (V) Wednesday: Before Open: Caterpillar (CAT)

Sees $514 billion in Q2 borrowing Previously saw $123 billion Assumes end-of-quarter balance of $850 billion The Treasury says ” The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market

Trump wants tax cuts in this reconciliation package I think we’ve had enough teases about trade deals, they’re not market moving headlines anymore. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a rough day last Wednesday for the crude oil market as a couple of bearish news weighed on prices. The first catalyst came with the Kazakhstan Energy Minister saying that National interests take priority over OPEC+ interests on output levels. That weighed on the market on higher supply expectations. Later in the day,

The US first quarter GDP report is proving to be one of the toughest ones for economists to forecast since the pandemic. The range from professional economists is -1.5% to +1.7% and the range from models is even wider. Now I would argue that there is so much noise in the report that it shouldn’t

The USDCAD is trading within a narrow 43-pip range today, well below the 113-pip average over the past month. The session low was set early at 1.3849, while the high reached 1.38917. The current price is trading around 1.3868. On the hourly chart, the lows from the past three trading days have consistently found support

Canadians are voting today in an election that’s been dominated by antagonism and threats of annexation from the President of the United States. In general, the stakes are low for the Canadian dollar. That’s in large part because the Liberals switched leaders to Mark Carney and he’s moved the Liberal platform much closer to the

The Nasdaq opened at the best levels since Liberation Day today but that’s been followed by a decent reversal with the index now down 1.0%. The question for investors right now is whether it’s best to bail after a return to pre-tariff levels or whether a new bull market has started? I don’t think the

April credit card data from Bank of America doesn’t show a slowdown in US consumer spending. If anything, there was a slight acceleration in early April after tariffs were announced. 1) This could be tariff front-running 2) Drops in consumer confidence haven’t led to less spending There are certainly reasons to worry about the US

China Gold Association reports gold consumption fell in Q1 down 5.96% to 290,492 metric tons Q1 domestic mined gold output reached 87.243 tons, up 1.49% y/y. Gold ETF holdings in China in Q1 increased by 23.47 tons, up 327.73% y/y Headlines via Reuters more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Portuguese grid operator — REN — is out with a diagnosis of what happened with the huge power outage today: Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in very high volatge lines, something called ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ These osculations cause synchronization failures between the electrical systems It’s

The USDJPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average and has now extended down to test the next key target — the 200-hour moving average, which comes in at 142.274. The low price just reached 142.267. It’s worth recalling that last Thursday, the price moved down toward the 200-hour MA but found willing buyers ahead

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures flat US futures are marked down though, with S&P 500 futures lower by 0.4%. Trade headlines will continue to be the main thing to watch out for but there will be other factors in play as well. Month-end flows being one of that but we’ll also have key

HFM, a leading global financial broker under the HFM Group, continues to provide innovative tools to its clients. One of them is its revolutionary HFM Copy Trading Platform, designed to refine trading and set new standards in transparency and trader empowerment. Unlike traditional copy trading platforms, HFM redefines the experience by giving users full visibility

Putin declares truce for Victory Day May 7-11th. In the event of violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine, Russia will respond. More: Russia once again declares its readiness for peace talks without preconditions. I don’t think Russia-Ukraine peace deal is that much of a deal for global markets. At margin, it could be negative for

Crude oil futures are lower by about $-1.22 or -1.94% at $61.80. The low price today has reached $61.69. The high price is at $63.66. Concerns about the potential for increased supply along with slower growth seems to be weighing on the price. Crude oil futures are trading lower, down about $1.54 or -2.08% at

The week will start off slowly in terms of scheduled economic events, but markets will remain alert to any unexpected announcements from the U.S. administration, particularly regarding potential retaliatory tariffs. On Monday, Canada will hold its federal election while on Tuesday, in the U.S., we will receive the JOLTS job openings report and the CB

UK Times, and other media outlets, with the latest from EY Item Club, which is sponsored by the big four accountancy firm EY, EY’s forecast: now expects UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.8% in 2025, down from their projection of 1% in February cut its 2026 forecast from 1.6% to 0.9%, citing

There are some larger expiries for EUR/USD and USD/JPY on the board for today. However, they are sitting quite a distance away from the prevailing spot levels. As such, they aren’t going to factor into play unless we get some headlines to jolt price action into life in the session ahead. For now, the overall

Will suggest to the US to return to zero on all tariffs Brother, you already are in an open trade war with the US and the Vice President called Europe ‘pathetic’. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shanghai is seen as the main financial hub in China, so the visit is one that could take on some importance. Even if not from what he will be saying during the visit but at least in terms of the optics. It comes at a time when US and China are still locking horns on

Worst reading since May 2020 Prior was -16.3 Production +5.1 vs +6.0 prior New orders -20.0 vs -0.1 prior Capex -0.4 vs -0.6 prior Employment -3.9 vs -4.6 prior Outlook -28.3 vs -10.7 prior Future production +14.8 vs +27.6 prior 34% of firms reported declining new orders. Comments in the report are very interesting. Chemical

Latvian central bank governor, and therefore a Governing Council member of the European Central Bank, Martins Kazaks. Comments reported via Bloomberg. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief, Kazak’s main points were: US tariff policies may slow down inflation and cause a recession But developments are head are unclear right now “If inflation were to undershoot

I posted on the slump back on Thursday last week: Trucking volumes out of LA (a major port city) have collapsed The Financial Times have followed up, this from earlier: Financial Times on “Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight” When I posted that FT piece I hadn’t known it

The USD has been supported recently amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do with positioning rather than fundamentals. In fact, the short dollar trade got very overstretched, so positive news on the tariffs front could provide a pullback on some unwinding of those trades. In the medium term, the

FoxBusiness Charlier Gasparino is X-ing on the Japan tariff deal and tariff concerns: There is a hold-up in the Japan tariff deal over the level of commitment to buy oil from the Alaska pipeline. Howard Lutnick remains a key player in tariff negotiations and recently argued to a lawmaker that tariffs won’t cause inflation. GOP

If you missed it, there was an ‘ECB sources’ story on the weekend saying that more ECB members leaning towards a June cut. Tariff effects in eurozone are two ways Underlying inflation pressures are easing This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq index is trading at new session lows, down around 200 points or -1.14% at 17,183.96. Earlier in the day, the index reached a high of 17,467.35, coming within about 27 points of the key 50% midpoint of the move from the December 16 all-time high to the April 7 low. That midpoint level

Gold Futures Analysis for Today – June 2025 Contract – April 28, 2025 Current Price at the time of this gold futures analysis: 3,293.5 Active Bias: Bearish below 3,305.5 Context and Market Insights: Gold futures continue to demonstrate bearish momentum following consecutive failures to reclaim crucial Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Point of Control

The EURUSD pushed above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1370, a level that had previously stalled rallies twice earlier in the day. After breaking higher, the pair extended gains through the 200-hour moving average at 1.1397 (green line), reaching a high of 1.1413. However, momentum faded, and the price has since rotated back below the

When it comes to reading Trump and his words, we all know that there’s always going to be two sides to the coin. He loves to make a show of things and be flamboyant. But the truth of the matter is more often than not what he will not portray. It’s all about scoring wins

The USDCHF is holding a more bullish bias in early trading today as buyers continue to lean against key technical support. The pair remains above a swing area near 0.8269 and the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.8263. This area has been a clear line in the sand for buyers, helping to stall downside

It’s been a nice week for the S&P 500 as the market rallied by more than 7% on more de-escalation news. The underlying expectations continue to point towards further de-escalation and eventually deals, which is a positive for growth and therefore the stock market. We will likely remain in a “buy the dip” environment until

US dollar losses are accelerating in an ominous sign today. The latest leg lower came after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to the lowest since May 2020. The report was littered with angst about tariffs and uncertainty in the real economy. The market is weighing whether all the poor sentiment numbers are truly indicative

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’) Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China Earlier: China exports withstand pressure PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at

It is a complicated relationship with China US has had substantial discussions with Japanese allies on trade Chinese exemptions show they want a de-escalation on trade Europeans are panicked about strength of euro 17 important trading partners have made ‘very good proposals’ to avert US tariffs Negotiations with Asian trading partners going very well Says

Bitcoin Analysis Today – Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) – April 28, 2025 Current Price: 95,760 (MBT Contract) Market Context and Key Levels for Bitcoin Today: Micro Bitcoin Futures (ticker: MBT) are currently trading at 95,760. Bitcoin futures today are gravitating towards a critical price magnet at 95,930—the Point of Control (POC) from Friday’s trading session.

Sector Overview The U.S. stock market exhibits a mixed bag today, with significant sectoral shifts visible across the spectrum. Of note, the semiconductors sector is seeing substantial declines, casting a shadow over broader technology stocks. Key player Nvidia (NVDA) is down 2.33%, a significant drop that underscores bearish investor sentiment in this pivotal industry. Conversely,

Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy. “Trump pushed back on the notion, popular among some Wall Street analysts, that financial turmoil – plummeting markets, the threat of a recession, a weakened dollar – would cause him to roll back his tariff policies.” “It always affects you a little bit” he said,

The AUDUSD is showing resilience by holding above the key 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently clustered around the 0.6388 area. This zone also corresponds with an old ceiling. Despite this underlying support, buyers have struggled to gain real momentum. The last 5 trading days has seen the price action trade above and below the

From an interview with Reuters: In a normal armed conflict, both countries should refrain from using nuclear weapons Says would only use nuclear weapons if there is a direct threat to our existence Great, just great. More war is just what the world needs, especially between a country with 1.4 billion people and another with

The economic calendar is, as the headline says, empty. UK house prices is the first item listed for 0600 GMT on Monday, April 28, 2025 (0200 US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, is the man in charge of negotiations with the US on tariffs. And he’s out saying that their stance has not changed whatsoever, in that they are still demanding a full removal of tariffs. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is extending to new highs and in the process is moving into the upper extreme from last week’s trading. That upper extreme comes between 1.3361 and 1.34233. Swing highs and lows from Monday and Tuesday of last week are around these levels. The high price just reached 1.33707. The current price trades at

B2PRIME Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, has announced the appointment of Fernando Wladdimiro as its new Institutional Business Development Manager. He joins the company from State Street, where he held the role of Vice President – eFX Sales & Relationship Management. Fernando joins B2PRIME after more than 7 years

Headlines: Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy – The Atlantic China’s Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently We are still demanding a full removal of US tariffs, says Japan economy minister South Korea says no chance to reach trade deal with US before next presidential election

The USD is little changed to start the new day/week. The dollar is also mixed vs the major currencies. A snapshot currently shows: EUR unchanged JPY +0.30% GBP -0.24% CHF +0.11% CAD unchanged AUD -0.17% NZD +0.07% For the trading week last week,, the greenback was mixed with gains versus the EUR, JPY, CHF and

ECB’s deGuidos is speaking and says : incoming data suggests modest growth in the first quarter of 2025. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to hover around our target Meeting by meeting approach to setting the appropriate monetary policy stance This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 86 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 60 bps (79% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 88 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 43 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 121 bps

Dow Jones Futures Analysis for Today – YM Contract – April 28, 2025 Current Price of Dow Jones Futures at the Time of This Analysis: 40,289 (YM Futures) Market Context and Key Levels: Dow Jones futures (ticker: YM) are currently trading at 40,289, closely aligned with Friday’s closing price. Today’s price action indicates YM futures

It’s election day in Canada and Trump is trying to make it all about him. Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel,

Speculation of People’s Bank of China cuts never go away. This the latest from the China Securities Daily the Bank is seen cutting the RRR and interest rates in Q2 If not, the next set of headlines will roll it into Q3. Rinse, repeat. Ahead today from China: Heads up for a China news conference

It’s going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday today as we don’t have anything notable on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases. Anyways, the focus remains on tariff related news and the underlying expectations are for more de-escalation ahead and eventually deals (even with China). This has been the trend

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

PBOC deputy governor says will cut reserve Requirement ratio (RRR), interest rates, at an appropriate time to focus financial support on stabilising jobs, economic growth will guide financial institutions to guarantee financing demand for foreign trading firms (i.e. exporters) studying plans to enrich policy kit will roll out new policies when needed *** Earlier: China’s

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’) Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

President Xi and Trump did not have call recently. US and China have not conducted negotiations or consultations on tariffs. This is the same old denying from the Chinese to comments from Trump about ongoing talks on tariffs. Nothing new here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 12.05pm Sydney time: 0205 GMT 2205 US Eastern time on Monday, April 28, 2025 Keynote speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Topic is “Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets” speaking at Bloomberg, Sydney This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Bank of Japan expectations survey via Bloomberg (gated). In brief, nothing of much surprise: The Bank of Japan will keep interest rates at 0.5% and pause further hikes due to rising economic risks from US tariffs. New tariffs are expected to shave 0.5% off Japan’s GDP, delaying any rate hikes until at least October. Despite

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +0.5% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX +0.6% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% US futures have also pared losses somewhat, with S&P 500 futures just down by 0.1% currently. It’s all still early in the day and even more so on the week. Trump’s tariffs and trade headlines will

The Financial Times with the info: The Financial Times is gated, but in brief: The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also reported sharp falls in

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with US media on Sunday. Bessent said that while he spoke with his Chinese counterparts last week during International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, tariffs were not mentioned! Further in the interview Bessent refused to back up Trump’s assertion that Trump had spoken with China’s President Xi: “I don’t

Prior -41 That’s the highest reading since October last year as UK retail sales balance bounces back in April. Is it better weather conditions that is helping, similar to what we saw in March here? The expectations balance for May isn’t as bright though, falling to -33 and that is down from -30 previously. This

Domestic sight deposits CHF 442.6 bn vs CHF 439.7 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s top currency official denied a media report claiming U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supported a strong yen: Mr Yen says Completely untrue about media report that Bessent said stronger yen preferable More, in brief: Atsushi Mimura said, “the U.S. side did not touch upon exchange-rate targets in the finance minister talks.” Finance Minister Katsunobu

Bloomberg (gated) carried comments from Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania and European Central Bank Governing Council member (the monetary policy making board of the Bank). Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: ECB could lower interest rates at least two more times this year, citing: global trade weakness, largely caused

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The narrative of Trump versus the world continues to dominate the market landscape as we look towards the end of April. While he was busy over the weekend putting in focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is leaving broader markets wanting in the new week expecting some new development on tariffs/trade. And that’s where we

According to Barclays’ month-end FX rebalancing model, strong dollar buying is indicated against the rest of the major currencies bloc for April. This comes after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement led to massive selling in US equities and bonds during the month. “The clear outflows from all major US assets at a pace of c.3-4 standard

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do more with positioning rather than fundamentals. The short dollar trade got very overstretched so positive news on the tariffs front is providing a pullback. In the medium term, the US Dollar should keep on

South Korea is saying that they will be aiming to create six or so working groups with the US to discuss tariffs, economic security, and economic cooperation. However, any trade agreement will not come before the presidential election on 3 June. This looks to be more of a domestic exception but so far, there haven’t

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We are in a moment of great economic uncertainty But does not see any extra inflation in the region Does not anticipate a recession in France, Europe Trump’s policies, US protectionism are not working The ECB is set to meet in June next and market players are slowly warming up to the idea of another