Prior week initial jobless claims 226K revised to 227K Prior week continuing claims 1.810M revised to 1.8000 million Initial jobless claims 215K versus 225K estimate 4-week moving average 224.25K vs 223.50K prior Continuing Claims 1.821M vs 1.800M est. 4 week MA of continuing claims 1.795M vs 1.785M last week. The initial claims come of the

For now, markets are taking in the calm and it will need some time in gauging the supposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As things stand, the situation remains that the waterway is tightly controlled by Iran, as reported earlier here. But in terms of ship tracking data, there are some improvements at least

The US dollar is facing some moderate pressure after today’s data slate. The main driver of it is the PCE report which showed inflation at 4.1% y/y and core inflation at 3.4%. Both of those were precisely in-line with expectations but it appears the market is breathing a sigh of relief that prices didn’t accelerate

The market’s muted response to both the BOJ hike and the Katayama-Bessent alignment language is the most telling signal in MUFG’s note: verbal intervention and policy tightening are doing the job of slowing yen weakness but neither is reversing it, which leaves Tokyo increasingly reliant on the credibility of the threat rather than its execution.

Following the U.S. data dump, which showed PCE inflation coming in a touch below expectations (just a touch), Treasury yields have moved lower, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points to 4.106% and the 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 4.374%. Stock futures are sharply higher, led by technology shares after Micron Technology

There’s the saying that if something can’t go up on good news, there’s bound to be trouble up ahead. And the Japanese yen is definitely stuck in one of those situations. Even in times of risk aversion with equities retreating this week, the yen is not able to find much comfort. And that says a

It was always going to be either a hit or a miss. But in the end, things are setting up for quite the blockbuster open later in Wall Street. That as investors got the confirmation they needed this week. All eyes had been fixated on Micron earnings and boy, did they deliver. In case you

Spain Q1 2026 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q prelim Prior (Q4 2025) +0.8% As for the annual estimate, it shows the Spanish economy growing by 2.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026. The details show that domestic demand contributed 0.5% to quarterly GDP growth, with external demand only contributing 0.1%. In terms of aggregate demand, household

Full report here ECB’s Schnabel reiterated that ECB is not done tightening yet. She’s one of the ECB’s most influential voices, so her comments carry significant weight because they often signal where the policy debate inside the Governing Council is heading. Schnabel said that based on current conditions, further rate hikes will likely be needed

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been under pressure since the last FOMC meeting as the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise via the dot plot. In fact, the median dot showed one rate hike this year and some of those hawkish members pencilled in multiple hikes (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes

Israel has pulled back from part of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon Israeli pullback is an act of “good faith” toward Lebanon’s government Lebanese armed forces should now move into the area from which Israel withdrew Israel has withdrawn from part of its self-declared buffer zone in southern Lebanon in what a US official

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been falling hard in the recent days the fallout from the hawkish Fed decision continued to push real yields and the US dollar higher. We haven’t got any meaningful catalysts since the FOMC, so the markets continued to run mostly by inertia. The price has fallen more than 50% from the

GfK consumer sentiment -29.2 vs -27.6 expected Prior -29.8; revised to -29.7 The estimate still points to a recovery from the lows seen in May and June, but not as much as one would hope for. The consumer climate remains weak but the good news is that there is some stabilisation now at least. The

Consumer confidence 84 vs 83 expected Prior 82 There is a slight improvement in French household confidence in June but the estimate continues to sit well below the long-term average of 100. As an aside, the French statistical office has added a new index into the report – namely the savings climate synthetic index. That

A year-end Brent target of $78 from JP Morgan suggest a directional anchor for the market, reinforcing the bearish H2 drift that has been building in consensus since the Iran ceasefire removed the geopolitical premium. The detail on private operators refusing to draw commercial stocks is particularly significant for price structure: it means the apparent

Yesterday we had a mixed bag CPI report from Australia: Australia May CPI undershoots on headline but core inflation tops forecasts at 3.6% The rising core rate keeps the next RBA meeting, in August, ‘live’. Today’s jobs report will add more data for the Bank. I’ll post a preview separately. This article was written by

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The signs of a mania in Asia are even worse than you think. For instance, the CSOP SK Hynix Daily 2x Leveraged ETF was launched in Hong Kong in October. It’s now the largest ETF in the entire country, with more than $18 billion AUM and tracks memory-maker SK hynix. To be fair, it’s been

Rupee set to rally at open as oil slides below pre-Iran war levels, bucking Asia weakness Australia jobs bounce masks part-time tilt and April revision as RBA August hold holds Bessent Greenspan “tap the brakes” remark read as green light for Warsh hike in September Australian May unemployment rate 4.4% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.5%) Iran’s

A September Fed hike would be the first in three years and would represent a complete inversion of the rate path markets had priced coming into 2026. The Greenspan 1997 analogy Bessent reached for unprompted is the most tradeable signal in this story: a single tap-the-brakes move followed by cuts is a very specific template

A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck north-central Venezuela on Wednesday, collapsing buildings in Caracas. The USGS issued a red alert warning of high casualties and economic losses of 1-4% of Venezuelan GDP. Summary: A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck approximately 24 kilometres east-northeast of San Felipe and around 160 kilometres west of Caracas at 22:04 UTC on

If Marchioni is right and the new FOMC language is genuinely just housekeeping, money markets get a straightforward signal: the pace of Treasury bill buying will continue to respond to liquidity conditions as it has been doing, with no abrupt shift in the reserve management framework. The risk for markets is if she is wrong,

Crude oil futures settle at $70.34. Stays below the 200 day MA. Hong Kong’s largest ETF is a leveraged bet on a single stock Bitcoin breaks $60,000 and falls to a 20-month low BOC minutes: Members agreed the economy was weak Micron earnings after the close. With price up 721% from a year ago, is

The April revision from minus 18,600 to minus 40,700 is the number that reframes the entire report. The two-month average across April and May now sits at essentially flat, which is a materially weaker picture than the May headline alone implies and aligns with the gradual softening narrative the RBA has been willing to tolerate

The scale of the beat, with revenue coming in more than $5.7 billion above consensus and Q4 guidance topping estimates by around $7 billion at the midpoint, signals that AI-driven memory demand is compounding faster than the sell side can model. Gross margin guidance of approximately 86% for Q4 suggests pricing power is intensifying alongside

The 83% surge in US shipments is almost certainly a pull-forward effect driven by tariff front-running rather than genuine demand strength, which makes the May headline figure a poor guide to underlying sector health. The EU and China export declines running simultaneously confirm the structural export pressure that has driven the year-to-date output fall of

Micron reports: EPS of $25.11 vs $20.6 estimate Sees 4Q at $31 vs $25.50 estimate For some perspective, this was a $40 stock a year ago and is now making 75% of that in a quarter. Their margins are +85% as they’ve absolutely put the screws to the market on pricing as AI hyperscalers plow

The flash crash warning on speculative AI momentum names is the detail traders will focus on, not the headline target upgrade. JP Morgan is effectively signalling that the easy money in second and third-order AI plays has been made and that the risk of a sharp, fast reversal is now high enough to flag explicitly

It was an ugly day in many markets as gold, silver, bitcoin and oil were all sold hard. Stocks mostly held the line though. There were even some strong bids early in the day before it flipped to selling. At one point it looked like the selloff could get ugly but late bids cushioned the

Crude oil futures are settling down 3.92% at $70.34, extending the recent slide in prices. During the session, crude fell below the $70.00 level for the first time since the start of the Iran war, reaching a low of $69.63. For perspective: The gap low from March 2, following the weekend start of the war,

Keep an eye on the bitcoin chart as it breaks $60,000. It’s gone through that level and touched below the June 5 bottom of $59,125. This is a fresh low since September 2024. At current levels, the entire Trump 2.0 rally is already wiped out despite a host of crypto-friendly US policies. That’s a poor

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both now negative on the day as technology and computer chips in particular sag. The fear is that Micron will report some sort of slowdown in AI demand in today’s report after the bell. Shares of the company have surged at a frenzied pace in the past six months

Members agreed that the economy was weak; it was still operating in excess supply and there was slack in the labour market The economy was not clearly in recession Data suggested that not a great deal had changed since the Council’s last decision in April Flags rate cuts if US imposes new trade restrictions, hikes

The USD is higher vs the major currencies once again led by the NZD (+0.49%), EUR (+0.30%), GBP (0.30%) and CHF (+0.28%) . In the video above, I outline the technicals that kickstart the North American trading session for the 3 major currency pairs including the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. I take a look at

The prediction industry has become one of the fastest-growing corners of global finance. Combined monthly trading volume on the largest platforms has climbed to roughly $24 billion, and independent researchers, including Eilers and Krejcik and the investment bank Bernstein, project the sector could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by 2030. The human appetite

The Deutsche Bank revision lands at a moment when gold is already losing its traditional safe-haven narrative to a more powerful counter-force: a Fed that is not cutting and may yet hike. With futures open interest at a 17-year low and ETF selling accelerating after the May payrolls print, there is no obvious demand catalyst

The split verdict in the May CPI, a headline miss and a core beat, is the worst combination for the RBA’s communication task. The bank cannot claim the inflation problem is resolving while trimmed mean is running 1.1 percentage points above the midpoint of its target band and 0.6 points above the band’s ceiling, and

There is an entire class of people who spend their careers counting barrels of oil. Oftentimes they’re compelling and they highlight unusual and seemingly meaningful flows. Then came the Iran war and closing of the Strait of Hormuz. By any measure, this was the biggest disruption in oil market history as one-in-five barrels pass through

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has extended the losses this week as the fallout from the hawkish Fed decision continues to push real yields and the US dollar higher. We haven’t got any meaningful catalysts since FOMC, so the markets continue to run by inertia. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a

Both gold and silver continue to cool off, falling to new 2026 lows and their weakest levels since the fourth quarter of 2025. Why Gold and Silver Have Fallen to New Lows Higher U.S. Treasury yields: Rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, encouraging investors to move

The buyers and sellers in the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are sparring for control as another wall of worry begins to take shape. Concerns over higher interest rates, slower global growth, the implications of peace in the Middle East, a potential slowdown in capital spending, sector rotation, market transitions, and a pickup in

Most profitable algorithmic trading strategies usually fail live because of execution friction, not broken logic. Backtests assume instant fills at the requested price. Live markets add latency and slippage that quietly erode an automated strategy’s expectancy. An algo with a genuine edge on paper can still post negative returns once execution costs hit every single

Westpac’s retention of its August hike call, grounded in a trimmed mean trajectory pointing to 3.8% by end of Q2, puts it at the more hawkish end of the bank forecaster spectrum following Wednesday’s data. The distinction the bank draws between pass-through that can unwind, as postal costs demonstrated in May, and pass-through that is

A services PPI print that holds at 3.3% for a second consecutive month, driven by transport cost surges of this magnitude, is precisely the kind of data the BOJ’s June summary flagged as a transmission risk: business-to-business price increases in distribution and logistics that have a well-established track record of feeding through into broader consumer

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices continue to fall steadily after the end of the US-Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The war related gains should be erased soon with the price approaching the pre-war levels around the 68.00-69.00 area. The bearish bias remains intact as traders continue to price out the war

SaPrior was 622K New home sales change -7.3% vs -6.2% prior Sales 6.8% below the May 2025 level of 622,000 This is a terrible report and this series has been cratering since October. It looks like the jump in borrowing rates around the war halted new home sales in a big way. That should reverse

I posted a preview of the Australian inflation data yesterday: Australia May CPI preview: fuel drag to mask sticky underlying inflation I mentioned in that post (the screenshot of the AUD) that the Australian dollar still appeared heavy and any pop would likely be sold into. Well, we didn’t have to wait, its 60 points

From his Truth Social post: “Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are “NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately!

Headlines: Trump reaffirms that no money has been given to Iran yet and Hormuz will be toll-free Pakistan says US-Iran technical talks to only resume next week Qatar says LNG production to resume within a few weeks, eyes Strait of Hormuz reopening Oil prices are almost back to pre-war levels amid Hormuz normalisation, Fed hike

Westpac warns of Middle East second-round CPI effects, still forecast an August RBA hike BOJ June summary flags faster hike calls as markets price another move by year-end. Recap. Australia May CPI undershoots on headline but core inflation tops forecasts at 3.6% Samsung $65bn buyback and new chip cluster talks spark South Korea equity bounce

A Nikkei target of 76,000 represents meaningful upside from current levels and the revision will carry weight given BofA’s visibility on global fund flows into Japanese equities. The identification of leverage expansion as the next ROE driver is a significant analytical shift: margin improvement has been the dominant story for Japanese corporate profitability over the

It was a rough day in the stock market as a selloff in South Korea left that market down 9.9% and raised concerns about the ongoing mania in chip stocks, particularly memory names. Much of the intense panic concentrated on Micron (MU), which cratered more than 13% today. This massive pre-earnings flush comes just 24

Business climate index 85.6 vs 85.6 expected Prior 84.9; revised to 85.0 Current conditions 87.0 vs 86.3 expected Prior 86.1 Expectations 84.1 vs 85.1 expected Prior 83.8; revised to 83.9 After falling to the weakest reading since October 2022 in April, German business sentiment continues with a bit more of a rebound in June after

There was a sense of “how far will this selloff run” as tech shares in the US stumbled yesterday. Memory chipmakers bore the brunt of the selloff as both Micron and Sandisk fell by over 13%, after having surged in Monday trade before that. The timing is uncanny with Micron set for its earnings call

Australian May 2026 inflation data: Headline 4.0% y/y expected 4.3%, prior 4.2% -0.7% m/m (expected -0.4%, prior 0.4% Trimmed Mean core CPI 3.6% y/y expected 3.5%, prior 3.4% 0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%) The Weighted Median is the second core measure, 3.6% y/y prior 3.5% 0.4 % m/m (prior 0.2%) I’ll have more to

After the conclusion of the first round of talks in Switzerland over the weekend, technical talks between the US and Iran were supposed to continue this week. However, the latest update now is that talks will only be scheduled to take place again some time next week. According to the Pakistan camp, who are acting

A May headline print at or below 4.2% would be the second consecutive monthly deceleration and would extend the run of data supporting the case for the RBA to pause in August after raising rates at each of its three meetings in 2026. The more significant read-through is TD’s explicit view that even an upside

We still have work to do to reduce inflation which remains far too high Timely policy steps to reduce inflation could have smaller unemployment costs We took pro-active policy action to reduce excessive capacity pressures with rate hikes Lower global oil prices would be a welcome development but full conflict resolution is not yet assured

easyMarkets, the global CFD broker with more than 25 years of experience, has expanded its product offering with a range of new financial instruments, now available to clients on its proprietary trading platform. The new additions, broaden access to regional and global markets through a single trading environment. They include instruments linked to one of

The combination of a near-$65 billion buyback and active government coordination with both Samsung and SK Hynix on accelerated chip facility construction is a rare double catalyst for Korean equities and explains the session bounce. The buyback, if confirmed, would rank among the largest single corporate capital return programmes in Asian market history and addresses

Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weakness Economic growth likely to be slow but continue at a moderate pace of recovery Financial conditions remain accommodative even after recent rate hike So, that will continue to support economic activity Expects to continue raising interest rates as underlying inflation approaches 2% level There is risk

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 662.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An official confirmed Anthropic’s Mythos model found vulnerabilities in secure US systems within hours during Project Glasswing testing. The Trump administration subsequently issued restrictions on Mythos 5 and Fable 5, forcing a global service halt. Summary: Anthropic’s Mythos model identified vulnerabilities in secure US government computer systems within hours during an authorized test called Project

The ‘Summary‘ reinforces a picture of a BOJ majority that is not pausing to assess but actively debating the pace of further tightening. The member calling for hikes at intervals of a few months, combined with the near-90% economist consensus for another move by December and over a third pencilling in October, tightens the timeline

The summary confirms that the June hike was not a close call for the majority, with most board members framing the move as both appropriate and overdue given the distance between the policy rate and the estimated neutral rate of around 2%. The explicit mention of a neutral rate target and the preference for hikes

UBS’s pushback on Fed hike pricing is directly relevant to rates, duration and gold. If the bank’s thesis is correct that tariff disinflation is beginning to reassert itself and that softer second-half growth will dampen any hawkish impulse, then current yields on short to medium maturity bonds represent an overshoot that will ultimately correct lower,

Via oilprice.com: *** Expectations I had seen: headline crude oil -5mn barrels distillates -400k bbls gasolina -350k bbls This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold retests the 38.2% retracement and swing area McDonald’s is now worth 160x rival Wendy’s Crude oil futures settled below the 200 day moving average US treasury so $69 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of 4.189% U.S. Secretary of State Rubio: We’re going to deal directly with the Lebanese government BOC’s Macklem:

Taiwan’s stock market has doubled in the past year and it’s led to an incredible retail frenzy. Bloomberg today writes about the market, which could be a stand-in for Korea or parts of the US market. Andy Cheng is 26, unemployed and, with the help of a little borrowed money, the proud owner of $60,000

The price of crude oil futures are settling had $73.21. That’s down $0.65 or -0.88%. The settled price is below the 200 day moving average at $73.68. The last time the price closed below its 200 day moving average was back in late January. On increased momentum to the downside, the traders will be looking

Prior 51.0 Manufacturing PMI vs 54.8 expected Prior 55.3 Composite PMI vs 51.7 prior For background, the S&P Global US PMIs are monthly surveys of senior purchasing and operating executives at private-sector companies, run separately for manufacturing and services and combined into a headline composite. They are produced by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the operation

The broader U.S. stock indices came under heavy selling pressure overnight, with the NASDAQ futures at one point down more than 800 points in premarket trading. Since the opening bell, however, both indices have staged a partial rebound. The NASDAQ is currently lower by around 320 points, while the S&P 500 is down roughly 60

The NZDUSD is the second-weakest major currency today, trailing only the AUDUSD, with the pair down 0.79%. The decline has been a steady, trend-like move with only shallow corrective bounces along the way, highlighting the strong bearish momentum. Technically, the pair has broken below a key swing area between 0.56819 and 0.56980, turning that zone

The U.S. Treasury sold $69 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of WI level at the time of the auction 4.192% Tail -0.3 basis points versus six auction average of 0.1 basis points Bid to cover ratio 2.64Xversus average of 2.61X Directs 34.3% versus average of 29.1% Indirects 55.5% versus average of 57.8%

The ECB is always talking a big game about ‘not guiding’ but they always tee it up before the meeting, either via public comments or leaks. The market is pricing in 28 bps of hikes by year end with a 60% chance of a hike in September. There will be plenty of data between then

Cruise ship demand is a good proxy for economic comfort and a way to gauge the impact of the war in Iran on consumer behaviour. Carnival also sits on the lower-income rung of the cruise ship industry so it’s less skewed by the K-shaped economy. Earnings today of $0.41 cents beat the $0.35 consensus but

The USDCAD has been in a strong uptrend since bottoming at 1.35492 on May 1, climbing to a high of 1.41927 yesterday. Although the pair corrected lower following the stronger-than-expected Canadian CPI report, the pullback has so far been limited and remains within the context of the broader bullish trend. Importantly, the decline found support

US Richmond Fed services index -1 vs +14 prior Manufacturing shipments +3 vs +16 prior Services index -1 vs +14 prior Number of employees -1 vs +3 prior both shipments and new orders remained in positive territory The average growth rate of prices paid increased notably while growth in prices received increased somewhat in June

If we want a more balanced and resilient global system, we need to create more places for savings to go beyond just the USA Even as the US has pulled back from open trade, others should look to deepen trade and investment relationships Leveraged trading of hedge funds and non-financials may be making the system

The EURUSD is pushing to fresh session lows and, in the process, has broken below a key support zone between 1.13908 and 1.14102. The move below that floor shifts the focus to the next downside target—the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the January 2025 low to the January 2026 high—which comes in at 1.13544.

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a day of mixed outcomes across various sectors, with technology suffering significant losses while consumer-focused industries show resilience. The semiconductor sector is clearly in the red, with leading tech giants like Nvidia and Micron taking a considerable hit, down 2.73% and 8.86%, respectively. This decline may signal looming concerns

Sec of State Marco Rubio is saying: We’re going to deal directly with the Lebanese government. You can’t end hostilities in the region if Iranian proxies are launching missiles. It’s an issue that will be brought up at the appropriate time. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s

The USD is higher vs the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – to kickstart trading on June 23, 2026. IN the video above I take a look at what the price action has done for each pair and what are the risks, and the targets for each as market gyrate.

The NZDUSD has fallen to a new low of 0.5709, bringing the pair closer to an important support zone between 0.5688 and 0.5698, which sits just above the 2026 low from early April at 0.5677. The pair had previously rallied to a high near 0.5862 before turning sharply lower. The more hawkish-than-expected FOMC decision triggered

I do worry that too much forward guidance becomes false precision, can become confusing That’s rich statement from a guy who said “We want to be very clear—Canadians can be confident that borrowing costs are going to remain very low for a long time,” in November 2020. Just 16 months later he was hiking rates

The AUDUSD is the biggest mover against the U.S. dollar today, falling -1.05% to 0.6926. The decline has taken out several key technical levels and shifted the near-term bias firmly in favor of the sellers. The day began with the pair testing the 61.8% retracement level at 0.7002. Sellers leaned against that resistance area, keeping

Update: Bitcoin has weakened after losing the key support zone Update score: -3.5 / +10 Bitcoin has weakened since the original analysis. The earlier article treated BTC as slightly bullish but not confirmed, with a score around +1.0 / +10. That was because Bitcoin was still holding above the important 63,750-62,750 support area. That has

The USDCHF bottomed last week near a key cluster of support defined by the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, the 200-day moving average, and the 50% midpoint of the trading range from the June 2025 high. Those technical levels converged near 0.7908 and provided a strong foundation for buyers to regain control. The

This contradicts what US vice president Vance said yesterday here. As mentioned at the time, it takes two to tango. No matter what the US may claim things to be, we will need Iran to confirm the situation. Otherwise, it will be nothing more than just mere words. And this once again proves just that.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to be supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts

Bank of England external policy member Alan Taylor is out with a strong call for holding rates unchanged. The market is pricing in a 25 basis point hike to 4.00% at year end. An extended hold at this level, to me, very much the correct and appropriately measured policy response we need Bank rate is

Prior 49.3 Manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 53.5 expected Prior 53.9 Composite PMI 49.4 vs 50.6 expected Prior 49.7 Key Findings: UK private sector output continues to stutter amid sharper decline in service sector activity Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “A disappointing June ‘flash’ PMI indicates that the economy contracted

I see signals pointing to price pressures in the coming months The Middle East situation is fragile with risk of setbacks Labour market is resilient, household balance sheets are solid and public investment should support activity Uncertainty is elevated despite peace prospects and inflation could stay above 2% for quite some time Increase in energy

Services PMI 48.9 vs 48.6 expected Prior 47.7 Manufacturing PMI 51.3 vs 51.6 expected Prior 51.6 Composite PMI 49.5 vs 49.1 expected Prior 48.5 The readings are better than estimated after a mixed showing between France and Germany earlier. But at the balance, it points to a slower downturn in euro area business activity in

Treasury yields will be sensitive to any signal from Warsh on the rate path, particularly given that nine FOMC members already penciled in higher rates at his first meeting. Traders will be watching closely for any shift in his balance-sheet language, since his stated desire to shrink the Fed’s holdings has been interpreted as a

Yuan devaluation claims ring hollow as currency nears 28-month high, Reuters says South Korea’s Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said USD/KRW mid-1,500 is “excessive” Australia May CPI preview: fuel drag to mask sticky underlying inflation Bitcoin price analysis: BTC repair still alive, but this warns of failed breakout PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8171

Prior 50.1 Services PMI 46.8 vs 49.0 expected Prior 48.1 Composite PMI 48.0 vs 49.6 expected Prior 48.5 Key findings: German PMI slips deeper into contraction territory in June, whilst inflationary pressures soften Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The good news is that inflationary pressures have started to ease

The $5,100 gold target is the most striking single number in the outlook and, set against a mid-2027 timeframe, implies meaningful further upside from current levels; the bank’s characterisation of gold as its preferred diversifier signals a structural rather than tactical allocation call. The S&P 500 target of 7,950 is constructive but not aggressive given

The near-stabilisation of the composite at 49.8 is unlikely to shift RBA expectations materially on its own, but the confidence reading is a red flag: sentiment at its weakest since the pandemic outside of March 2020 suggests the private sector is bracing for deterioration rather than recovery, which has implications for forward consumer spending and

The NASDAQ index fell sharply with a decline of -1.32%. Some big names including Alphabet (-5.02%), Microsoft (-3.18%), Amazon (-4.75%), Netflix (-5.82%) all fell sharply. SpaceX (-16.43%) whose IPO debuted last week with a low traded price at $150 above the IPO price of $135, nearly reversed the full move to the upside that saw

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said he has no regrets about his dissent at the most recent policy meeting, and that financial markets have remained stable in its aftermath. Speaking on Marketplace Radio, Goolsbee acknowledged that inflation is running well above the Fed’s 2% target and is heading in the wrong direction, singling out

Services PMI 47.4 vs 46.0 expected Prior 44.3 Manufacturing PMI 50.7 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.7 Composite PMI 47.6 vs 46.4 expected Prior 44.9 It’s a minor relief for French business activity as we see a slight rebound at the end of Q2. That being said, the overall performance still points to a downturn which

Business confidence 94 vs 95 expected Prior 94; revised to 93 Services confidence 93 Prior 93 Industrial confidence 100 Prior 102 The reading points to just a mild recovery in the overall business climate in June. But as a whole, French business confidence remains in the doldrums ever since the US-Iran conflict began. For some

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

It wasn’t a good day for tech shares as we saw more of a rotation play in Wall Street to start the week. The S&P 500 closed down by 0.4%, despite seeing 7 of its 11 major sectors close higher. The main culprit for the drop? It was always going to be big tech when

Canada May CPI +3.2% y/y vs +3.0% expected Eurozone flash June consumer confidnce -17.7 vs -17.5 expected Qatar says the LNG plant explosion was an accident, not aggression Netflix shares are beginning to price in disruption SpaceX shares are down 10% as Elon Musk taps the bond market We have made a lot of good

Core inflation is seen at 2.7% in May, after the 2.8% estimate in April. However, the more important core-core inflation metric is seen at 2.1% last month. And that reflects a drop from 2.2% in April. While the former continues to keep rather sticky as it factors in energy prices, the latter suggests that the

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. Price action among major currencies will continue to revolve around dollar sentiment and the broader risk mood as such. So, those will continue to be the key drivers impacting price movements in the sessions ahead. The risk

The explicit use of the word “excessive” by a finance minister in reference to a currency level is among the more direct forms of verbal intervention available to a policymaker, and markets will treat it as a signal that authorities are closer to acting than standard diplomatic language would imply. The identification of foreign equity

Most traders spend a lot of time thinking about entries, exits, indicators and risk management. Far fewer spend much time thinking about the cost that is built into every single trade before any of that even matters. It is there every time you click buy or sell, on every instrument, at every broker. And for

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC is trying to bounce, but buyers still need to prove control Instrument: BTCUSD, Bitstamp spot BitcoinChart focus: Bitcoin 4h chart, with daily and hourly context Bitcoin is trying to bounce after its recent sharp pullback, but I am not treating this as a clean bullish reversal yet. At the time of

Its another light calendar today with preliminary PMIs for June kicking off. Very unlikely to move markets too much upon release. I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The yuan’s approach toward a 28-month high on a trade-weighted basis directly undermines the political traction of undervaluation arguments, and the Reuters analysis suggests that dynamic is already shaping FX positioning: selling USD/CNY on spikes is described as the path of least resistance, with offers likely to build around the 7.8000 psychological barrier. Lagarde’s comments,

Danske’s floor call is the most market-relevant element here: by explicitly ruling out a return to the $60-$70 pre-war range, the bank is signalling that the structural supply backdrop has been permanently repriced even as the immediate crisis abates. That has implications for energy equity valuations and producer hedging strategies, where a sustained $80 floor

The AUD and Australian rate futures will be sensitive to any upside surprise in the trimmed mean, which is the measure the RBA watches most closely for policy signals. All three banks broadly agree that the annual trimmed mean will edge higher in May, ranging from 3.5% to 3.6%, and a print above that range

Wilson’s liquidity warning is the most actionable element for traders: with the Reserve Management Program down roughly 75% from its peak and Treasury buybacks cut by half, the balance sheet tailwind that supported equities through much of the cycle is fading fast. Accelerating lending growth compounds the problem by absorbing capital from the real economy

Iran is doing very well on the Strait of Hormuz Hormuz is totally open Separately, Iran’s top negotiator tells local TV that the signing for the release of $12 billion in frozen assets has been finalized during talks in Switzerland. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The $820 billion AI capex forecast for 2026, rising to roughly $990 billion in 2027, is the single most consequential number for semiconductor and infrastructure plays in this note, and UBS explicitly flags upside risk to those estimates. The 40% cloud growth figure and $2 trillion in advance compute orders reported by hyperscalers in Q1

Reports from the New Statesman said Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chief of staff told Downing Street staff he is resigning, adding to mounting pressure on an already embattled administration. The reported departure comes at a highly sensitive moment for Starmer, who is facing growing calls to step down amid an intensifying Labour leadership crisis. Recent

Headlines: We have made a lot of good progress on Iran talks, says Vance Iran ramps up crude oil exports via Strait of Hormuz as Switzerland talks conclude Further US-Iran technical talks reportedly set to continue later today UK’s Starmer: I will resign as prime minister UK politics: Streeting folds, decides to back Burnham for

The Nasdaq is down 1% today after earlier trading higher. Beneath the surface it’s more of a divergent look with some wide dispersion in the winners and losers. Many of the biggest names in the index are at the bottom: GOOG -5.6% AMZN -4.4% AVGP -3.75% NFLX -5.5% MSFT -2.5% META -2.2% NVDA -0.9% SPCX

Renewed scrutiny of Tesla’s driver-assist technology following a fatal crash carries reputational and regulatory risk for the stock, particularly given the company’s ongoing push toward full self-driving and robotaxi ambitions. Headline risk tends to be short-lived for TSLA absent confirmed system fault or regulatory action, but any indication from investigators that the automated system contributed

Prior was -19.0 For background, the eurozone consumer confidence indicator is a monthly gauge of household sentiment across the euro area, compiled by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). It forms part of the broader Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, a long-running framework that collects qualitative

The latest enhancement deepens the collaboration between two long-standing trading industry innovators, combining TradingView’s charting technology with easyMarkets established risk management tools Limassol, Cyprus – June 2026, easyMarkets, the global CFD broker with more than 25 years of industry experience, has expanded its offering on TradingView by bringing its Guaranteed Stop Loss with no slippage

The strait is open We have set up a mechanism for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open We want to make sure to have proper coordination Technical talks will continue in the weeks to come We have laid a very good foundation for a successful final deal We want a regional ceasefire Iran has agreed

The Iran walk-out of war negotiations and the ongoing fighting in Lebanon haven’t derailed the oil selloff. On the weekend, J.D. Vance brushed aside ceasefire violations and Iran’s negotiators did agree to steps towards a lasting deal. All sides seem to be saying the right things in between threats to go back to war. With

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar surged across the board on Wednesday on the more hawkish than expected dot plot (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). The median dot showed one rate hike this year and some of those hawkish members pencilled in multiple hikes. By projecting a rate hike,

A US official told Al Jazeera that negotiators held in-depth talks covering all elements of the nuclear agreement, including mechanisms to prevent escalation and keep the strait fully open. Middle East media sources say a joint statement from Iranian, American and mediating parties is expected soon, and that the Iranian delegation remains at the Bürgenstock

About 14 months ago shares of Google were trading at $146, down from a high of $207 just three months earlier on fears that it was floundering in the AI race. Back in 2023 it was a similar story as it had fallen to $85 from $150 on fears that AI would replace search. Now

The USDJPY extended its rally in early North American trading, pushing above last week’s high and reaching 161.92—just shy of the April 2024 high at 161.94. That level proved to be a formidable barrier, with buyers unable to sustain the breakout attempt and the pair quickly rotating lower. A move above 161.94 would take USDJPY

The main thing now is that the US and Iran have agreed to a 60-day “roadmap” in order to reach a final nuclear and sanctions deal. Call it whatever you like, be it a “memorandum of understanding” or a “framework agreement”. However, the bottom line is that they have reached an accord on advancing negotiations

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for GBP/USD at the 1.3200 level. The expiries may provide a bit of a floor for price action in the session ahead, all else being equal. But as things stand, the pound is going to be much

Interest in silver can rise and fall alongside economic conditions, industrial demand, inflation expectations and broader market sentiment. While some investors view silver as a way to diversify market exposure, any decision to participate in silver markets should be based on individual financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance. Market participation carries the risk of

The USDCAD had been drifting lower since around 7:15 a.m. ET, falling from 1.4171 to 1.4152 ahead of Canada’s hotter-than-expected CPI report. The inflation data triggered another leg lower, with the pair extending its decline to 1.4144. Earlier in the session, the pair had climbed to 1.4193 during European trading, its highest level since April

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More on this here. Injects 476.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. Earlier: Chinese Loan Prime Rates were set: 1year 3% vs. expected and prior 3% 5 year 3.5% vs. expected

Ethereum technical analysis: Bulls are fine while ETH holds above this anchored VWAP zone Ethereum is showing a constructive short-term bullish repair on the 4-hour ETHUSD chart, while the larger weekly chart still sits inside a broader channel structure. For now, the key bullish area is around 1,747, while the larger swing-bull support zone is

Summary: Inflation overshoot risk: Delaying necessary adjustments to monetary easing could cause prices to overshoot targets. Rapid price pass-through: The transfer of high oil prices down to downstream consumer goods has progressed quickly. Geopolitical outlook: The recent easing of Middle East tensions aligns closely with the BOJ’s April economic outlook. Persistent accommodation: Easy financial and

The USDCHF found solid support last week at the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 50% retracement of the decline from the June 2025 high, both converging near 0.7908. From that base, buyers regained control and drove the pair higher helped by the more hawkish FOMC rate decision. Technically, the price moved

The Barzan facility supplies Qatar’s domestic gas market rather than its LNG export terminals, which limits immediate disruption risk to global supply. However, the incident sits inside Ras Laffan Industrial City, the operational heart of one of the world’s largest LNG export operations, and QatarEnergy’s refusal to address potential plant damage will sustain uncertainty until

USD/JPY make a quick move lower after touching a session high. The pair briefly traded above 161.90 only to plunge promptly to 161.20. The dip has been bought though, with the pair back up to 161.65. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned that they’re watching markets closely. On Friday, USD/JPY posted its highest weekly close in

Sterling is trading on edge in early sessions as Westminster chatter intensifies around a possible leadership change in Downing Street. The prospect of Burnham succeeding Starmer revives the same fiscal discipline concerns that have weighed on gilts and the pound through recent bouts of political turmoil, given his more left-leaning policy instincts relative to the

Qatar’s energy minister reports that 18 workers were killed at the enormous Ras Laffan LNG complex as it was restarting following the war. A portion of the facility was bombed by Iran during the war and that will take years to repair, leaving it at 80% capacity for an extended period. This was an accident

Prior was +2.8% y/y CPI +1.0% m/m vs +0.8% expected Prior m/m was +0.4% Core measures: BOC core +2.2 vs +2.1 prior BOC core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% prior Core CPI SA +0.2% m/m +0.3% vs prior CPI median 2.1% vs 2.1% expected (prior was 2.1%) CPI trim 2.0% vs 2.0% expected (prior was 2.3%)

Iran has now ramped up its crude oil exports that it openly transacts through the Strait of Hormuz to its highest since before the war started. According to ship tracking data, there is around 6 million barrels of Iranian crude that are on board three US-sanctioned supertankers making its way through the waterway today. The

The USD is mixed with the USD higher vs the EUR and the JPY but lower vs the GBP. The GBP’s move to the upside is the only wandering currency from what is a higher US dollar move to start the new trading week and comes despite UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer officially announced his

China bans rare earth exports to Pentagon-backed US firms in military-linked retaliation Explosion at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG site leaves 54 injured and 18 missing Goldman Sachs sees structural gold buying as central bank demand hits 59 tonnes in April Recap: Japan PM Takaichi urges policy restraint after hawkish BOJ testimony on price risks Mediators

Will remain in post until Labour leadership contest is completed in early September Will do everything to ensure an orderly handover Nominations will open on 9 July His final words before calling the resignation: “The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election.

He is very much expected to set out his resignation plans, so this should be it. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham is going to be sworn in as member of parliament for Makerfield today as well. So, it will be a defining day for UK politics as Starmer exits and Burnham comes into the fray. As things

The week starts with no major scheduled economic events for the European session, while later on Monday Canada will release inflation data. Tuesday will bring the BoJ core CPI y/y release, along with the flash manufacturing and services PMIs for Australia, the eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. On Wednesday, markets will focus on the

We need to monitor for second-round effects on wages Latest ECB wage growth tracker points to stable wage growth ECB’s Escriva said the central bank needs to closely monitor whether higher prices begin feeding into wages. The latest ECB wage tracker points to relatively stable and moderating negotiated wage growth, suggesting such second-round pressures have

The US and Iran framework agreement remains fragile at best and as seen from the weekend, it can all fall apart at any point in time. There is some progress in talks in Switzerland but until we do see some real evidence of progress, it’s hard to imagine things actually getting better. For now, Iran

Earlier: AXIOS report that US and Iran make headway on Hormuz access ahead of technical-level talks Qatar moves to contain Ras Laffan blast as questions linger over cause This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold maintains the bearish bias following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a rise in real yields and a stronger US dollar. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himono is set to appear in the Japanese parliament from 0000 GMT (2000 US Eastern time). Meanwhile, fin min Katayama has trotted out the usual verbal intervention attempts to stem the yen drop: ready to respond as needed etc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman’s forecast of sustained central bank buying at 50 tonnes a month through 2026, easing to 40 tonnes in 2027, provides a durable structural floor for gold prices even as the monthly pace moderates from earlier peaks. The record share of central banks signalling intent to raise reserves adds a demand backstory that materially limits

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed a breakthrough mechanism for safe vessel transit in the Strait of Hormuz following 18 hours of intensive talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, setting the stage for final agreement negotiations. According to statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry carried by Tasnim news agency: A formal transit mechanism was successfully arranged to

The slippery slope is just getting more dicey for the Japanese yen currency, with all that is going on in markets since last week. A more peaceful resolution in the Middle East is being challenged and regardless, USD/JPY continues to grind higher. The yen is very much in a situation of damned if you do,

ICYMI: BOJ Deputy Governor Himino warned the Diet that delaying monetary tightening risks an inflation overshoot as energy costs pass through rapidly. Prime Minister Takaichi responded by calling for tight policy coordination, signaling a preference to stay pat. Summary: According to recent testimony in the Japanese Diet and responses from the prime minister’s office: BOJ

We won’t be getting impetus from any of this lot. That PBoC rate decision is on the LPRs, and is of little relevance to traders. The central bank now treats the seven-day reverse repo rate as its primary policy instrument. Much more on this here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A joint statement from Qatari and Pakistani mediators confirmed the conclusion of constructive US-Iran talks in Switzerland, establishing a high-level political oversight committee and a strict 60-day roadmap to reach a final peace deal. According to a joint statement issued by the Qatari Foreign Ministry on behalf of mediators Qatar and Pakistan: The first high-level

The weekend news was of a shaky ceasefire and Iran leaving negotiations due to Trump’s threats(they came back). USD a few tics higher in VERY early trade: J.D. Vance: These kinds of ceasefires are awlays “a littel bit messy” CAD is an exception, catching a bid as an oil proxy. This article was written by

The targeting of MP Materials, which operates the only active rare earth mine in the United States, alongside USA Rare Earth strikes at the most strategically exposed node in Washington’s effort to build a domestic critical minerals supply chain independent of China. A full export ban is a material escalation from the previous licence-only regime

China’s sharp pullback in crude purchases has acted as a de facto shock absorber for global oil markets, helping explain why prices topped out near $120 a barrel rather than testing the $200 levels some had flagged as a worst-case scenario. With oil now trading near three-month lows on signs of a US-Iran framework deal,

The sharp drop in Hormuz transits, from 26 vessels Saturday to just five Sunday, signals a fast-deteriorating risk picture even though the US military insists commercial traffic continues. Oil markets are likely to reprice supply risk higher given the strait’s role as the world’s most critical crude chokepoint, with VLCC movements of Saudi, Emirati, Kuwaiti

An orderly, autumn-dated exit would remove some of the acute uncertainty that has been pressuring sterling, since markets generally prefer a defined timetable over an open-ended leadership crisis. That said, the medium-term picture stays clouded given Burnham’s more left-leaning fiscal instincts relative to Starmer, keeping a political risk premium embedded in gilts and GBP/USD until

Signs of progress on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open will ease the supply-risk premium that has been priced into crude since the conflict began, with traders likely to read the diplomat’s comments as a reduction in tail risk for tanker flows. The shift toward technical-level talks in Switzerland suggests markets should expect incremental, slower-moving

Ras Laffan’s role as the heart of Qatar’s LNG export capacity means any incident there draws immediate market attention, even when officials describe it as contained and non-structural to broader output. Energy traders are likely to watch closely for confirmation that production and loading schedules remain unaffected, given the facility’s history of disruption earlier this

Iran’s Khatam-al Anbiya HQ announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all maritime traffic. The military headquarters cites US breaches of the war-ending deal and ongoing Israeli ceasefire violations, along with the non-withdrawal in Lebanon. They warned this is only the “first step.” The Revolutionary Guard put out a similar statement yesterday.

I thought we might see some real currency intervention today after Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said he was prepared to take ‘decisive action’ on speculative moves in the yen. That comment caused a quick fall to 161.00 from 161.70 but the pair soon rebounded to 161.30 and it’s traded there since. If we finish around

Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire to start almost immediately Two killed in drone strike in Southern Lebanon after ceasefire Canada April retail sales +0.5% vs +0.6% expected UK PM Starmer to weigh future over the weekend – report “Multiple” cabinet ministers will tell Starmer to set out a timeline for leaving –

This has to be the most-fragile ceasefire in history. It’s hard to believe this is ever going to hold. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It was a week in two parts of the gold market. The good news came early as the Iran war ended, and seemingly for real this time. That news helped to extend a rally that started late last week and lifted gold from a low of $4022 to as high as $4382. The peak came

The party can’t last forever. Friday’s rally in stock markets — particularly in chip stocks — surprised me. The Fed was hawkish and stock market sold off during the FOMC press conference as bonds priced in a more-hawkish rate path. That all made perfect sense but then stocks immediately turned after the close and hit

US Vice President JD Vance has canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran, according to CNN. “Logisitics”. Yeah, right. Not a positive sign. Oil is up a touch on this, not surprisingly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK politics is incredible. In 2024, Starmer delivered 411 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons and now he’s on the way out. “Consider it over the weekend” is generally a code phrase for “I’ll resign on Monday” but we will see. UK politics is an intense Game of Thrones and the non-stop

A ‘senior US official’ cited by Reuters says that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire from 4 pm local time, which is just minutes from now. Oil prices gave up a 50 cent gain and turned negative on the headline. Earlier today, four Israeli soldiers were killed in combat and two days ago

The picture for the Canadian dollar is worsening as it continues to carve out fresh 14-month lows. The US dollar is up another 33 pips today against the loonie, touching 1.4177. This will be the third consecutive week of gains for the pair and comes with oil prices falling in a post-war rout. WTI crude

You can see the indecision on the DAX chart shown here but the overall mood was good. The bulk of the move came on Monday as the US and Iran reached a peace deal. That’s driven the price of oil lower and removed a material risk to the eurozone economy. It’s concerning there was no

The minutes are retrospectively hawkish given that the BoJ has since moved to 1.00%, validating the three dissenters who argued for exactly that level in April. The more significant market signal is the board’s near-unanimous recognition that underlying inflation was approaching 2% and that real rates remained deeply negative, a framing that keeps further normalisation

A report from The Times says multiple cabinet ministers will tell UK PM Starmer that his “time is up” and to set out a timeline for his departure. UK politics are brutal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The votes are in. The industry’s most credible awards, the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026, have announced this year’s winners, recognising the best brokers, technology providers and fintech brands operating on the global stage. Following a Voting Round that concluded on 15 June, the results were revealed at the Award Ceremony held on 17 June at

Inflation will be above 3% for the rest of this year It’s hard to make a case that we shouldn’t have hiked There is a fair amount of resilience in the Eurozone economy Eurozone economy has steady momentum So far this is a mid-sized inflation shock ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane defended the latest 25

Today’s meeting between the US and Iran was postponed in light of the ongoing fighting in Lebanon but that looks to have been cleared up by today’s ceasefire (hopefully). Now Iran’s foreign minister says plans are underway for a meeting in the coming days. He said the talks will be about a final agreement and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar surged across the board on the more hawkish than expected dot plot (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). The median dot showed one rate hike this year and some of those hawkish members pencilled in multiple hikes. By projecting a rate hike, the Fed

Russell 2000 rises by 2.12% and NASDAQ by 1.91% to lead stocks higher Trump: US is committed to PEACE Iran supreme leader responds to US MOU with caution Bitcoin price action is spelling T-R-O-U-B-L-E for the buyers US list blockade of maritime traffic entering and exiting the Straits of Hormuz Key Points from the MOU

Japan CPI stays muted in May as subsidies mask building inflation pressure Oil and US dollar rising on news that Vance cancelled his trip to negotiate with Iran BoJ deputy governor says delaying on price risks could cause long-term economic damage Vance cancels his trip to Switzerland Japan finmin says prepared to take decisive action

I’ll have more to come on this separately. For now, just the data: National CPI: ex Food, Energy (YoY) (May) 1.8% y/y … aka Core-core and the closest to the US measure of core inflation: expected 1.9% 1.8% is the slowest since September 2022 ex Fresh Food (YoY) (May) 1.4% … aka Core: expected 1.4%,

Prior -1.3% (revised to -1.0%) Retail sales +3.2% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +0.0% (revised to +0.1%) Retail sales ex autos, fuel 1.2% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior -0.4% (revised to -0.1%) Retail sales ex autos, fuel +4.6% vs +3.3% y/y expected Prior +1.1% Full report here This is a good report but won’t change

The major US he indices rebounded from yesterday’s post Fed declines. The gains were led by the small-cap Russell 2000 which rose by 2.12%. The NASDAQ index rose by 1.91% and the S&P index rose by 1.08%. The Dow was the laggard with a modest rise of 0.14%. US stock exchanges will be closed tomorrow

Prior was +0.9% The advanced April reading was +0.6% April retail sales ex autos +0.1% vs +0.7% expected Prior ex autos +1.4% (revised to +1.2%) Sales were up in five of nine subsectors Core sales excluding gas stations were down 0.7% Advanced May sales +1.0% This is a poor report and highlights how hard gasoline

I’ll have more to come on this separately. Just the data, for now: New Zealand Balance of Trade (May) 800mn surplus expected +875mn, prior +1.92bn Exports 8.88bn prior 8.62bn Imports 8.08bn prior 6.7bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? ECB policymaker Wunsch says upside surprises in inflation would justify further tightening ECB policymaker Lane sees the current inflation shock as “mid-sized”, defends rate hike USD/JPY is near the highest level since 1986 as divergence with the Fed intensifies UK May retail sales +1.2% vs

Sterling faces a modest negative undercurrent from the data, not from the headline number, which came in marginally better than forecast, but from the sub-index deterioration that points to softening domestic demand ahead. Major purchase intentions sitting at joint-lowest levels since January 2025 is a quiet signal for retailers and discretionary spending. For the Bank

The data is dovish on the surface but the BoJ is unlikely to read it that way given the context. Subsidies are doing the work of keeping core below 2%, not underlying disinflation, and the PPI acceleration since March is the more forward-looking signal for where consumer prices are heading once government support tapers. For

The Iran Supreme Leader responding to the MOU said: He had a different view regarding the MOU with the U.S., but due to commitment to the Iranian president and other members of the Supreme National Security Council, he issued permission. Future in-person negotiations that are going to take place do not mean accepting the enemy’s

The yen continues to struggle despite the Bank of Japan rate hike this week: The USDJPY is squeezing toward 2024 highs. Data from NZ kick off the calendar, May CPI from Japan follows later. Headline and core measures have remained below the BoJ 2% target for four consecutive months. BOJ minutes, April meeting, not this

Full article here ECB’s Wunsch said he would support another 25 bps hike if inflation data continues to come in stronger than expected, particularly after the recent rise in Eurozone services inflation. He said persistent upside surprises in inflation would justify further tightening as a precaution, though he added there is no need to rush

Fed Chair Warsh held rates at 3.5-3.75%, stripped cut-bias language from a shorter policy statement, skipped the dot plot, and announced five task forces to overhaul Fed operations including communications. Warsh said less and meant more, and markets are only beginning to price the difference. Summary: The Warsh communication style, whether deliberate brevity or Greenspan-era

EUR/USD 1.1500 (EUR 3.45 bn) 1.1350 (EUR 1.06 bn) USD/JPY 162.00 (US$ 411.07 mn) GBP/USD 1.3350 (GBP 323.37 mn) USD/CHF 0.7980 (US$ 593.83 mn) USD/CAD 1.4000 (US$ 621.46 mn) AUD/USD 0.7055 (AUD 385.01 mn) 0.7000 (AUD 362.60 mn) NZD/USD 0.5800 (NZD 351.00 mn) EUR/GBP 0.8750 (EUR 255.99 mn) WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES? The FX option

The EURUSD has pushed to a new session low and, in the process, moved back into a key swing area between 1.14419 and 1.14587. The pair recently traded down to 1.1452, placing the price squarely within that support zone. If sellers can force a break below the swing area, the next target comes in at

A $60-65 target from a major bank carries weight at a moment when crude has already hit its lowest point since the conflict began, and the directional call will pressure any remaining long positions built on sustained Hormuz disruption. The key phrase in Citi’s framing is “re-anchor to weaker fundamentals,” which implies the war premium

The overshoot warning is the sharpest language Himino has used across both sets of remarks on Friday and lifts the hawkish temperature of the session considerably. Framing delay itself as a risk, rather than premature action, signals the BoJ’s reaction function has shifted toward prioritising inflation containment over growth protection. The summer fuel CPI warning

USD/JPY reversed sharply from 161.80 in the US afternoon session on Thursday in a single sharp move with no confirmed catalyst, leaving traders divided between technical, intervention and flow-based explanations. Summary: USD/JPY rallied from around 160.60 to a session high of 161.80 before reversing sharply in a move consistent with large order flow rather than

US Vice President JD Vance has canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran, citing unresolved logistics and uncertainty surrounding the next round of negotiations. First reported by CNN then confirmed by the Whiote House. This stumble so early in the peace process has sent a shudder through markets, continued at this stage,

Oil’s price retreat reflects the market’s initial relief at Hormuz reopening, but the path back to normal export volumes is likely to be slower than spot prices imply. Iraq’s explicit caveat that crude export recovery depends on smooth transit conditions is a material qualifier: any friction at the strait during the 60-day negotiating window would

Hong Kong and mainland China are out today. Markets are closed. This will thin out trading interest and liquidity during the Asian time zone. Japan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand are all open, as is South Korea. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is getting squeezed higher, with the pair climbing to a new cycle high of 161.76. While that is the highest level since 2024, it is now closing in on the 2024 high at 161.919. A move above that level would put the pair at its highest level since 1986. The rally is increasingly

Trump on TruthSocial posts: Trumps “reply” to the Supreme Leaders comments are controlled. He seems to also be talking to Isreal to not muck things up. The Supreme leader was a more confrontational and negative, but his audience requires that he remain confrontational.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin price action is spelling T-R-O-U-B-L-E for buyers. While Bitcoin often benefits from a risk-on backdrop, recent price action has failed to confirm the improved sentiment. Despite the apparent end of the conflict and a rally in equities, Bitcoin’s rebound from the June 5 low at $59,104 stalled at $67,150, falling short of the 38.2%

On Thursday, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Gulf. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Naval ships will remain in the region to help ensure compliance

The AUDUSD prior to the FOMC rate decision yesterday, found willing buyers leaning against the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.7055 and the falling 200-hour moving average at 0.7042. However, the Fed’s more hawkish tone sparked a sharp selloff, sending the pair below both key moving averages and shifting the near-term bias in favor of

Pres.Trump is on TruthSocial touting the latest. He posts in all caps as well that: “OIL IS FLOWING, IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON (THE WORLD WILL BE SAFE!), THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!) OUR COUNTRY IS STRONG, SAFE AND RESPECTED LIKE NEVER BEEFORE. “YOU’RE

The USD is trading higher vs all the major currencies today on the day after the Fed decision where the Fed kept rates unchanged but the Fed members changed the projections for Fed rates at the end of the year with the Fed members now projecting 3.80% for the EOY rate up from 3.4% at

VP Vance is taking a more vocal center stage with regard to the Iranian deal and communicating details in regard to it. There were reports that Secretary of State Rubio was not fully in favor of the deal, but Vance was. The president sided with Vance and is now letting him speak. Cynics say that

The USDCAD extended its rally yesterday, surging higher into and following the FOMC rate decision. The pair has been in a well-defined uptrend since bottoming near 1.3549 on May 1 (the high prices today reached 1.4134), with buyers maintaining control for most of that period. Since May 7, the price has traded primarily above its

Prior week for initial jobless claims 229K revised to 230K Prior week for continuing claims 1.795M revised to 1.786M For the current weeks: Initial jobless claims 226KK vs 225 est 4 week MA for initial jobless claims 223.25K vs 219.25K last week Continuing claims 1.810M vs 1.795M estimate 4-week MA for continuing claims 1.788M vs

Sector Overview: Tech Drives the Market The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, leads the market today with impressive gains. Major players like Nvidia (NVDA) surged by 2.04%, and Micron Technology (MU) showed an outstanding rise of 7.15%. Semiconductor Equipment stocks also performed well, with KLA Corp (KLAC) up by 6.71% and Lam Research (LRCX) impressively adding

CITIC’s hold call pushes against the market’s current lean toward an October hike, creating a divergence worth monitoring as the US-Iran MOU beds in and energy-driven inflation pressure eases. If the geopolitical premium in oil continues to unwind, the inflation case for hiking weakens and the roughly 50-50 FOMC split that currently gives hike risk

TMGM today announced a new collaboration with OG Esports, marking TMGM’s first esports campaign. As the Official CFD Partner of OG’s Dota 2 and Counter-Strike 2 teams, TMGM will engage esports audiences through fan-focused digital activations, exclusive rewards and branded content. The collaboration reflects TMGM’s commitment to engaging digitally native audiences through performance-driven communities. The

Kuwait boost oil output to above 2 million barrels per day in a week Sees faster oil output than previously thought Will that all force majeure with immediate effect Crude oil has slipped back below the $74.00 level, trading at $73.94 and down roughly $2.00 on the day. The decline extended to a session low

Is comfortable that hiking rates makes sense under milder scenario This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

After the Fed decision yesterday, the US stock market fell with the Dow industrial average falling -507.03 points, the S&P -91.23 points and the NASDAQ -354.69 points. Today’s encouraging with the premarket prices higher and the gains led by the NASDAQ index which is currently up about 500 points. The S&P index is lagging however

New Zealand’s March quarter GDP data is expected to show the economy gained solid momentum in the early months of 2026, even as the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February looms as a far larger threat to output in the quarters ahead. The median market forecast points to quarterly growth of 0.9%, up

Prior 0.00% SNB sees 2026 inflation at 0.6% (previous forecast was for 0.5%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.0% (revised to +1.6%) PPI Y/Y +13.6% vs +11.4% prior (revised to +11.1%) Raw materials price index M/M +0.7% vs +2.6% prior Raw material price index Y/Y +33.4% vs +31.6% prior StatCan says: “The PPI increased 1.2% month over month in May, marking its fifth consecutive monthly increase. Disruptions to shipping through the

The hawkish tilt in the dot plot, with the median 2026 funds rate projection rising to 3.8% from 3.4%, pushed short-term yields higher and weighed on equities as markets repriced the likelihood of a hike as early as October. The stripping of forward guidance removes a key anchor that markets had used to price the

“Houston, we have a problem…”, SPCX rally loses upper-value acceptance SpaceX stock, ticker SPCX, is still far above its IPO price, but the latest chart structure is no longer a clean bullish continuation. My current read is that SPCX has shifted into a post-IPO exhaustion and failed-repair setup, with sellers using the $208-$214 area aggressively

Prior -0.4 Details: New orders 27.3 versus -1.7 prior Shipments 14.9 versus 4.9 last month Unfilled orders 10.5 versus -2.5 last month Delivery times 10.8 versus -10.4 last month Inventories 23.0 versus 6.6 last month Prices paid 53.2 versus 47.9 prior Prices received 20.3 versus 26.3 last month Number of employees 7.9 versus -2.8 prior

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on the process. Injects 248bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is extending above the 2026 high at 160.717. The high price reached 160.79. Warsh came in and the tone of the Fed shifted with officials changed their favorite bird from a dove to a hawk. For the USDJPY the price is moving further away from the 160.00 level – a level that attracted

Fed Chair Warsh: We recognize that inflation has been running “well ahead” of 2% Warsh Q&A: I see no reason to revisit 2% inflation goal until we have delivered FOMC June 2026 dot plot sees end of year target at 3.8% vs 3.4% in March 2026 Trump on the Fed raising rates: It could happen

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold sold off yesterday as the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year in the dot plot, effectively adopting a tightening bias in the short-term. Following the first spike lower, the price consolidated a bit as traders waited for Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference. Once everyone realised

Energy prices still determined by war situation If necessary our readiness to intervene in forex market is higher, difficult to say if it is more or less than before We look at the whole situation when it comes to interventions, the franc has weakened a bit since the last meeting Many factors affect the exchange

The remarks follow the standard Japanese official playbook and are unlikely to move the yen in isolation. The notable addition was Kihara’s explicit acknowledgement that a weak yen, while supportive of corporate profits, increases the burden on households, a framing that edges slightly toward the dovish side of the intervention debate by validating the domestic

The USD has moved higher after the more hawkish dot plot. Chair Warsh and the Fed took out reference to forward guidance but the dot plot showed the Fed members hand. Of course that can change tomorrow and as Warsh said, the expectations were all made in pencil, meaning that they are not permanent. Technically

My expectation is the task forces will begin work ‘in the next couple weeks’ Most or all will conclude by year end The ‘no reason’ comment is hawkish. More: Inflation is primarily determined by monetary policy We have the capability to deliver on 2% and that’s exactly what we’re going to do Can’t provide forward

EUR/USD 1.1500 (EUR 13.48 bn) USD/JPY 161.00 (US$ 1.89 bn) 160.50 (US$ 1.49 bn) 160.00 (US$ 1.72 bn) GBP/USD 1.3400 (GBP 698.38 mn) 1.3250 (GBP 549.56 mn) USD/CHF 0.8000 (US$ 431.88 mn) 0.7930 (US$ 498.29 mn) AUD/USD 0.7100 (AUD 1.76 bn) 0.7050 (AUD 2.47 bn) 0.6990 (AUD 1.22 bn) NZD/USD 0.5890 (NZD 514.43 mn) EUR/GBP

Economic activity expanding at a solid pace Members are unanimous that this committee will deliver price stability The statement just gives you the facts Confirms that he didn’t submit dot plot projections, but encouraged others to continue to do so Forward guidance not well suited to current environment After saying the line about delivering price

Iran says the plan for negotiating teams to meet in Geneva remains in place, but MoU was signed digitally. Will be no signing ceremony in Switzerland. Earlier: Iran signals permanent Hormuz changes as $300bn reconstruction deal confirmed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unanimous cut was fully priced and the BRL reaction will hinge on the tone around future easing rather than the decision itself. The explicit flagging of fiscal stimulus as an inflation upside risk is a hawkish signal that limits how far Copom can ease ahead of October’s election without undermining its credibility. Rising inflation

The divergence between a hold-all-year base case and a near-coin-flip December hike probability reflects the genuine uncertainty Warsh has introduced by removing forward guidance. Without a Fed-provided path, each inflation and payrolls print now carries more weight, and the range of analyst outcomes will widen further if energy prices remain volatile. The balance sheet task

A price increase on the iPhone, the world’s best-selling consumer electronics device, will draw immediate Washington scrutiny even though memory and storage carry a limited weighting in the CPI basket. Morgan Stanley’s estimate of a 15% price bump across smartphones and PCs this year adds a sticky, goods-driven inflation impulse that complicates the Fed’s already

Market levels at the time of the Press Conference shows: U.S. Stocks Dow Jones: 51,919.18 (-86.01, -0.17%) S&P 500: 7,470.93 (-40.41, -0.54%) NASDAQ: 26,228.62 (-147.72, -0.56%) Russell 2000: 2,945.98 (+6.78, +0.23%) Takeaway: Major indices remain under modest pressure U.S. Treasury Market 2Y Yield: 4.1379% (+9.1 bps) 5Y Yield: 4.2146% (+6.4 bps) 10Y Yield: 4.4552% (+2.7

The confirmation that Hormuz will not revert to pre-war conditions introduces a structural premium into crude pricing that markets will need to reprice on a semi-permanent basis. A tolling regime on the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, even one framed within international law, adds a new and unpredictable cost layer for tanker operators and crude

Market Reaction: Start of Press Conference vs. End of Press Conference The overall takeaway is that the market interpreted Warsh and the Fed as more hawkish than expected, with the strongest reaction seen in the U.S. dollar and front-end Treasury yields. Stocks weakened modestly, while precious metals came under additional pressure. 📉 Stocks Takeaway The

The MOU signing removes the immediate tail risk of conflict escalation but the hawkish caveats from Baghaei will caution on further meaningful risk-off unwind in oil. A formalised Hormuz transit fee regime introduces a structural cost floor for tanker operators and crude importers that will not disappear with the peace deal. Iran’s refusal to export

All that campaigning for the Fed job with dovish-sounding rhetoric was quickly set aside at the first meeting of the Warsh era. As Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh struck a much more hawkish tone, emphasizing the need to bring inflation under control. The message was reinforced by a dot plot that pointed to a more restrictive

Rate hikes “could happen” It’s alright that the Fed held rates, whatever Evidently, it’s not illegal to hike rates anymore. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Arizet Labs, the fintech infrastructure company behind A-Trader and the Meritix quality-scoring framework, today announced the public launch of The Desk, a competitive trading career platform built to challenge the traditional retail prop-firm model. In less than 12 days of early marketing, The Desk has attracted more than 6,000 traders to its Open Tier and

There is a consistent market move on the release of Warsh’s first FOMC statement. The notable thing is that the dovish bias that was in the prior statement (and had 3 dissents) is no longer there. You can argue about the content of the new statement — which is completely rewritten — but there’s no

Fed funds target unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as expected Vote was unanimous Statement says economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East Productivity growth and capital investment are strong Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has

The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% in June but signalled further hikes remain possible, with Westpac forecasting a move at the August meeting if inflation stays elevated. Justin had the info yesterday: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June monetary policy meeting, as expected RBA governor Bullock: I want to be

The full statement from the June 2026 Fed rate decision: June 17, 2026 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at

It’s always a good idea to read the FOMC statement one last time before the new one is released. You can be sure the jobs lines will be changed to highlight better hiring. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained

The dot plot from Federal Reserve members outlines the projection for rates at the end of 2026, 2027 and 2028. At the March meeting, the FOMC was projecting 1 cut in 2026 to 3.4%, and another in 2027 to 3.1%. The current projections shows. The end of 2026 3.8%, vs 3.4% in March The end

US retail sales are due at the bottom of the hour in an important check on the consumer. The consensus is that sales rose 0.5% in May, with the ex-autos number matching that. For the market, the most-important number is the control group, which excludes autos, gasoline and building materials. It’s expected up a healthy

Today’s is the big debut for new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, as he wraps up a two-day meeting with the FOMC. The result is a foregone conclusion — rates will stay in the 3.50-3.75% range. What’s less certain is how the statement will read. In the last meeting, three voting members dissented regarding the language

Iran is agreeing, at a minimum, to destroy its enriched uranium stockpile through downblending Iran is stating that it will destroy enriched uranium If we get a final deal and if the Iranians behave, we will permit sanctions relief Sequencing of steps will be a big part of the talks Meeting this weekend in Switzerland

Prior was +0.9% Retail inventories ex-autos +0.6 vs +0.6% prior Inventory-to-sales ratio 1.31 months vs 1.32 months prior Business sales +1.2% vs +2.2% prior This report is almost never a market mover but it’s an important component of GDP and will offer an early clue on how Q2 is shaping up. For background, the Manufacturing

PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng signals slower credit growth and offshore FX push China to issue CNY 300bln bonds to boost bank capital as local debt tackled Goldman holds TTF gas forecasts, flags upside risk and delayed LNG recovery China financial regulator vows to tackle property, local debt and small bank risks US Defense Production Act

The ECB’s first rate increase since 2023 was largely anticipated, but the upward revision to inflation forecasts and the explicit signal of a further September hike removes any residual dovish interpretation of the decision. European sovereign spreads and rate-sensitive sectors face renewed pressure as the market adjusts to a higher-for-longer plateau scenario through 2027. The

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq was on the verge of a breakdown last week as continued escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and hawkish Fed expectations sapped market’s optimism. Everything changed on Thursday when Trump cancelled his planned attacks on Iran and announced a deal with confirming reports from the Iranian side. This surprising breakthrough triggered

Two consecutive months of improving manufacturer sentiment adds to the case for the BoJ to proceed with its projected tightening path, with chip-sector strength providing a demand-side cushion against broader geopolitical headwinds. The chemicals and electronics sub-indices leading the gains suggest semiconductor capital expenditure cycles remain intact, a positive signal for regional supply chains. However,

The scale of the beat, nearly 7 percentage points above consensus, underscores how concentrated Singapore’s export boom is in AI-driven electronics, with integrated circuits, disk media and PCs doing the heavy lifting. The 303% surge in electronics exports to the US and 218% to Taiwan highlights the semiconductor supply chain intensity of the move and

For monetary policy, the key issue is the risk of second round effects Market expectations point to a declining path for oil prices but uncertainty remains There is nothing groundbreaking here. The euro is down 8 pips to 1.1599 as we await Warsh. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The ninth consecutive month of export growth reinforces the case for the BoJ to continue its gradual tightening path, with semiconductor and AI-related demand providing a durable demand floor that is proving resistant to geopolitical disruption. The sharper-than-forecast narrowing in the trade deficit, at 378.7 billion yen versus an expected 564.6 billion, will offer modest

Prior month was 0.3% revised lower from +1.4%. Pending home sales index prior month 74.0 revised lower from 74.8. Pending home sales index 76.8 The U.S. housing market showed signs of improvement in May as pending home sales, a leading indicator of future home purchases, rose 3.8% month-over-month and 4.6% from a year ago. The

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: After the weakness triggered by the surprising breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations on Thursday, the US dollar consolidated as traders shifted their focus to the FOMC decision. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the easing bias from the statement. At this meeting, we will also get the

Prior month -0.4% Canada new housing Price Index -0.3% Recent Canada housing data has been mixed but still soft overall. Housing starts: Fell 6% in May to 261,377 annualized units, though the drop was smaller than expected. Building permits: April permits fell 7.6%, with residential permits down 5.5%, led by weakness in multi-family projects. Resale

The USDCAD is trading modestly higher on the day, up about 0.11%, as it retraces a portion of yesterday’s North American session decline. That move lower brought the pair down toward its 100-hour moving average, where buyers stepped in and used the level as a springboard, helping to push prices higher into the close. Today,

Major U.S. stock indices have pushed to fresh session lows as the clock ticks toward the 4:00 PM ET close. The Nasdaq Index has fallen to a new intraday low of 26,404.16, bringing it closer to a key technical support zone. The latest dip has taken the index to within striking distance of its 100-hour

The USDCHF initially moved lower during Asia-Pacific trading, extending yesterday’s late-session selloff. The decline pushed the pair below a key swing area between 0.7920 and 0.7926, but sellers were unable to reach the next major downside targets — the 200-day moving average at 0.79044 and the 50% retracement level at 0.79014. The low for the

Headlines: Welcome to Fed day Fed preview: Warsh is the noise, the Board is the signal ECB policymaker Simkus sees at least one more rate hike ahead IEA sees ‘significant overhang’ in oil market next year Euro area inflation accelerates in May as services inflation remains stubborn UK inflation holds flat in May but core

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver broke down last week as continued escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and hawkish Fed expectations after the strong NFP raised real yields and tightened financial conditions. Everything changed on Thursday when Trump cancelled his planned attacks on Iran and announced a deal with confirming reports from the Iranian side. This surprising

Prior was +0.5% Details: Ex-autos +0.8% vs 0.5% expected Prior ex autos +0.7% Ex autos and gas +0.5 vs +0.5% prior Control group +0.7% vs +0.4% expected Prior control +0.5% Retail sales y/y +6.9% vs +4.87% prior Bank of America forecast a beat on sales based on cardholder data and that’s exactly what happened. The

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Injects 420.3bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The breadth of the regulator’s statements, spanning real estate, local government debt, small financial institutions and illegal activity in a single release, signals Beijing remains acutely aware of the interlocking vulnerabilities in its financial system. Explicit mention of real estate and local government debt in the same breath as systemic risk prevention will be read

The CNY 300 billion special bond announcement is the most market-concrete element of the statement and signals Beijing is moving from acknowledging bank capital stress to actively addressing it. Chinese bank stocks, particularly mid-tier and regional lenders most exposed to local government financing vehicles, may find near-term support on the recapitalisation signal. The explicit commitment

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The dollar continues to see more pushing and pulling on the week, as traders continue to digest the US-Iran framework agreement. The final details are yet to be confirmed, although we do have an idea on how

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% Core CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Euro area headline annual inflation is confirmed at 3.2% in May, nudging up from the 3.0% estimate in April. That marks the highest reading since September 2023, with higher energy prices being the main culprit. Of note, energy

Fed Day. What is key? Key Expectations Fed expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in a unanimous decision. The statement is expected to remove the easing bias, signaling that rate cuts are no longer the base case. Economic projections are likely to show higher inflation, slightly lower growth, and steady-to-lower unemployment. Dot Plot in

The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and remove the easing bias from the statement in an unanimous decision. At this meeting we will also get the Summary of Economic projections (SEP) where near-term inflation is expected to be revised higher while unemployment lower. The median dot plot

While the US and Iran looks to try and finalise the text and terms of their framework agreement for a ceasefire, markets will have to divert their attention at least for a day. The Fed game is back in town and that will keep things interesting, especially with the latest developments in the Middle East.

The bottleneck of nearly 500 vessels, including 220 oil tankers, sitting outside Hormuz is the key reason oil prices remain elevated above pre-war levels despite the MOU signing, and any credible insurance or escort solution would accelerate the return of suppressed supply to market. A fee-based naval escort scheme, if enacted, would add a new

More: “OpenAI burned through $3.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026, more than half its $5.7 billion in revenue, “ Reuters cite The Information. Lat week: OpenAI files confidential IPO prospectus, suspected September market debut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data from New Zealand, Japan and Australia due today. None of this is likely to move around financial markets too much upn release. Instead, to day will be spent waiting on the FOMC and specualting about the nuanaces around the expected on hold decision. Fed preview: Warsh walks into a minefield — a look at

World oil demand to fall by 1.1 mil bpd in 2026 amid US-Iran conflict (previous forecast 420k bpd drop) World oil supply to fall by 3.9 mil bpd in 2026 (unchanged from previous forecast) Sees 2027 supply growth of 8 mil bpd and demand growth of 2 mil bpd That leaves a ‘significant overhang’ of

I see at least one more rate increase It’s important to cap inflation expectations ECB’s Simkus expects the central bank to deliver at least one more rate hike to lean against inflation risks and make sure inflation expectations remain in check. According to Simkus, there’s still enough upside risk for inflation to justify additional policy

CPI +0.2% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior +0.7% CPI +2.8% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +2.8% Core CPI +0.3% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior +0.7% Core CPI +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +2.5% The headline estimates were softer than expected but when viewed as a whole, UK inflation developments were little changed from April

Pan Gongsheng’s explicit statement that maintaining China’s previous credit growth pace is both difficult and unnecessary is the most market-significant line in the release, effectively signalling a structural downshift in the credit impulse that has historically driven Chinese and global commodity demand cycles. Bond markets may interpret the comment as reducing the likelihood of aggressive

As the US-Iran dust settles down for a bit, will diverging economic fundamentals be the name of the game for EUR/USD next? It’s certainly a consideration that especially with stagflation risks on the rise in the euro area. So, what can we look forward to going into the summer for EUR/USD from here? ING argues

The broader stock indices did not fare well today with the NASDAQ index the worst performer falling by -1.15%. The S&P index fell by -0.57% but the Dow industrial average gained 0.64%. The Dow 30 gainers were help by J.P. Morgan +3.72%, Visa +2.89%, Home Depot, +2.20% 3M +2.17% American Express, +1.65% P&G, +1.39% The

The marginal delay to LNG normalisation, pushed from end-June to end-July, is a small but meaningful signal that the physical market is not clearing as quickly as hoped following the MOU signing. The Hormuz tail risk is the most market-sensitive element of the note: a move above 100 EUR/MWh this winter would represent more than

Japan April core machinery orders +8.7% m/m exp +0.9%, prev -9.4% +15.6% y/y exp +9.3%, prev +5.9% Japan May trade balance -¥378.7B exp -¥564.6B, prev +¥301.9B Japan May exports +17.0% y/y exp +16.2%, prev +14.8% To EU +14.5% y/y — to Asia +19.5% y/y — to US +12.5% y/y — to China +17.9% y/y Japan

We support and are ready to contribute to US-Iran deal implementation The right of transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions is vital for global trade We support the immediate robust ceasefire in Lebanon To commit to reduce dependence on Strait of Hormuz Besides that, they also make some comments regarding Russia: We

Via oilprice.com, although I have added in some of the missing pieces from other sources: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US May housing starts 1.177 million versus 1.430 million estimate US May import prices +1.9% vs +1.0% expected Trump says Iran deal should be successful, reiterates Iran will never have nuclear weapon Trump says he expects second stage of Iran deal to go quickly Fed preview: Warsh walks into a minefield — a look at

There is a something of a tradition at the Federal Reserve of rookie Chairmen causing themselves problems early in their terms, or in their first press conferences. It’s a rare event that begs for a live feed and strong preparation. On Wednesday, the market isn’t sure what to expect and that’s why the US dollar

Crude oil futures are settling at $76.05 – its lowest close since March 3. The futures settled down $4.70 or -5.82%. Technically, the settled price is now within $1.57 of it 200 day moving average the price is not traded below that level since February 17 when the moving average was near $62.10. On the

The NASDAQ surged higher on Monday following the weekend developments, gapping above both its 200-hour moving average (26,284.98) and 100-hour moving average (26,383.84). That move shifted the near-term technical bias firmly back in favor of the buyers. For the sellers to regain control, they would need to push the index back below those key moving

Small wiggle only for the NZD on this. May 2026 Food Price Inflation +1.0% m/m prior 0% for the y/y +3.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is moving lower helped by lower oil, and lower rates. Crude oil is trading down around five dollars and $75.82, and getting closer to its next key target at the rising 200 day moving average at $73.47 The 10 year yield is now down -4.4 basis points at 4.423% Looking at some of

High yield 4.927% WI level at the time of the auction 4.937% Tail -1.0 basis points versus average of -0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.75X versus average of 2.65X Directs (domestic demand) 19.9% versus average of 24.3% Indirects (international demand) 73.2% versus average of 64.9% Dealers 8.5% versus average of 10.8% Auction Grade A-

The RBA left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that both headline and underlying inflation remain above target. Policymakers also highlighted elevated uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly the impact that ongoing Middle East tensions could have on global energy prices. While the statement retained a cautious tone, some of the more hawkish language was softened.

WTI crude is now down more than 5% to $76.01 on a report that the US will allow Iran to immediately sell oil when the deal is signed. There was some speculation it would be phased or slow walked along with Iran opening the Strait. Obviously, there was pressure on Trump to do a deal

The analyst consensus is constructive on risk assets but explicitly not euphoric. Oil majors are flagged as likely to give back gains as the war premium unwinds, with BP and Shell already underperforming since late March in anticipation of a deal. Emerging market equities and local currencies are the preferred expression of the trade, underpinned

The relative calm in JGBs ahead of the decision reflects a market that has already done its pricing work. A hike to 1% is not the story; Deputy Governor Uchida’s forward guidance at the 0630 GMT briefing is. Any signal of an accelerated path toward 1.25% would put fresh upward pressure on yields and the

The USDCAD began the new trading day near its session low at 1.3985, just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 2025 high to the January 2026 low at 1.39839. Importantly for buyers, that low remained comfortably above the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.39726 and well above a key swing area

Iran deal should be successful Iran deal is a fair, good deal Iran deal goes to a second stage We’re not investing any money in Iran Iran will never have a nuclear weapon All hell will break out in Iran if Iran tries to get a nuclear weapon We’re dealing with rational people in Iran

The price of crude oil continues to slide, with WTI now trading around the $77 level, down roughly $3.70, or 4.6%, on the day. The decline extends a sharp three-day selloff that has seen prices fall 5.9%, 2.5%, and now another 4.6%, as traders continue to unwind the geopolitical risk premium that had been built

The bears are making something of a stand. US stock markets opened higher but have reversed and now the Nasdaq is lower by 0.5%. It’s a mixed bag in terms of names and memes as Western Digital remains up 6.5% (though it was up 10%) and Intel falls 5.7%. The latter name is carving out

📈 Sector Overview The U.S. stock market showcases a mixed picture today, primarily driven by sharp declines in the technology sector, particularly in semiconductors, while financial sectors and consumer cyclical stocks exhibit strength. 🔻 Technology & Semiconductors: A challenging day with industry leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) falling by 1.78%. Other major players such as AMD

Oil is on my radar.1. This is starting to look like capitulation. WTI is down another $3.13 to $77.26 today and is down dramatically from $91.62 last Thursday. The driver is obviously the peace in Hormuz and Trump repeatedly saying the Strait will be opened this week. That’s a positive timeline and a reason to

more to come Chinese House Price Index for May 2026 -3.5% y/y prior -3.5% The m/m is -0.2% prior -0.1% I posted this yesterday on strenuous efforts from China: Chinese municipalities ramp housing subsidies, provident fund rules to stabilise property This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Cannot reveal governor Ueda’s view But his broader view remains the same as he has discussed before Ueda’s hospitalisation is short-term, don’t see any impact on monetary policy conduct Well, it has only been about a week since Ueda took his leave of absence. So, it is a fair assumption to think that the decision

Iranian tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz as the US lifts its naval blockade Trump says Iran deal should be successful, reiterates Iran will never have nuclear weapon Iran outlines that nuclear talks will include enrichment, stockpile, and its nuclear needs German economic sentiment picks up in June as US-Iran conflict simmers down Oil

At the close: Not the best finish to the day Shares of SpaceX rise 16% as retail piles in Crude oil sets the topside risk with the run lower today Netanyahu: We will remain in Lebanon as long as we need to Trump/US Senior Official and Trump: Strait of Hormuz will be fully open on

The USD is little changed with all the major currencies within 0.12% of the closing level from yesterday. The high to low trading ranges are also confined. EURUSD: 38 pips USDJPY: 30 pips GBPUSD: 40 pips USDCHF: 18 pips USDCAD: 33 pips AUDUSD: 35 pips NZDUSD: 40 pips Looking at the 3 major currency pairs

She says that she won’t offer any comments on the BOJ decision until after the press conference by deputy governor Uchida later. As a reminder, BOJ governor Ueda wasn’t present at this meeting as he was admitted to the hospital last week here. As such, Uchida will also be filling in for the BOJ press

The decision is a clean hawkish package with one dovish structural element. The rate hike and the explicit commitment to continue raising rates are unambiguous. The bond taper pause from April 2027, fixing monthly JGB purchases at around 2 trillion yen, is the complicating factor: it removes a source of upward yield pressure at the

Previews: BOJ, expected 0230 – 0330 GMT: Former BOJ economist Kameda says hike to 1% Daiwa sees BOJ June hike BOJ to raise short-term policy rate to 1% RBA: Westpac sees RBA hold June RBA seen holding This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +1.9% (revised to +2.0%) Import prices up 6.7% y/y Export prices +1.3% vs +1.2% expected Prior export prices +3.3% (revised to +3.5%) The US dollar is relatively flat today ahead of the data as we wait for Wednesday’s FOMC decision. This report will give them a bit extra to think about on the

Comments from Trump: Will release text of Iran agreement in a formal setting MOU states clearly Iran will not have a nuclear weapon Will have a news conference on the Iran deal Will go over Iran MOU with media in a couple days Agreement is about one thing: Iran will never have a nuclear weapon

Current conditions -81.0 vs -78.0 expected Prior -77.8 Outlook 10.5 vs -6.0 expected Prior -10.2 The current conditions reading might be poor, falling to its weakest since December last year. However, the good news is that the outlook reading has rebounded back to positive territory. And that likely reflects the optimism tied to the latest

A clean 25bp hike with unchanged forward guidance would be the least market-moving outcome and is broadly what consensus expects. The risk events sit on either side: a 50bp move or a hawkish dissent from the reflationary wing of the board would steepen the JGB curve and put a bid under the yen, while any

Prior month housing starts 1.465 million revised lower 21.392 million Prior month building permits 1.442 million . Data for May: Housing starts 1.177M vs 1.430 million estimate Housing starts -15.4% vs -8.5% last month last mont Building Permits 1.413M vs 1.420M estimate Building permits -0.7% versus +5.8% last month. Housing starts fall sharply: Single-family housing

Oil markets are pricing in relief that may arrive well ahead of actual supply normalisation. Even at the optimistic end of analyst forecasts, energy flows through the strait are unlikely to exceed half of prewar levels within the first month, and a full recovery stretches toward late 2026 or beyond. War-risk insurance premiums remain at

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After the surprising US-Iran breakthrough on Thursday, gold has erased all last week’s losses as traders pared back rate hike bets on expectations of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns. In the short-term, the focus continues to be on this new development, so we can expect the bullish bias to hold (all

Iranian oil tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifted its naval blockade, marking one of the clearest signs yet that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries is beginning to take effect. According to Iranian state-linked outlet ISNA, citing Deputy Foreign Minister officials, Iran confirmed that the US

Energy markets face a drawn-out normalisation even if Friday’s MOU signing proceeds without incident. S&P’s projection that second-half 2026 shipping volumes will run at roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels puts a ceiling on any near-term price relief. Insurance constraints, infrastructure damage, and residual risk aversion are expected to suppress flows well into 2027, keeping the

BOJ hikes to 1%, pauses bond taper from April 2027 and flags inflation overshoot risk Bank of Japan 25bp rate hike to 1%, as widely expected Goldman cuts Brent forecast to $80 for 2026, $75 for 2027 on Hormuz deal China May data: industrial output beats but retail sales post first fall since 2022 BOJ

Further rate hikes will depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions There is risk of underlying inflation deviating upwards to the level above the price target Important for underlying inflation to stabilise around 2% level Uncertainties remain with regards to situation in the Middle East Need to pay close attention to how said developments

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The surprising US-Iran breakthrough last Thursday triggered a selloff in crude oil as traders started to unwind the hedges and positioned for lower prices on expectations of resumption of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming months. As mentioned last week, the downside was more likely as the upside was

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1540 and 1.1600 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could limit price movements for the currency pair in the session ahead at least. The ones at

The framework agreement for the memorandum of understanding this week can be said to be the “easy part”. And that says a lot about how the next phase of talks is going to proceed, considering the circumstances. That being nuclear discussions between the two sides. And Iran is quick to outline what the key argument

The talks reflect a structural shift in Pentagon procurement strategy rather than a near-term catalyst for either stock. Lockheed’s supply-chain bottlenecks are a known constraint on its ability to scale interceptor and strike weapon output, and GM’s manufacturing capacity offers a partial workaround for commodity components rather than high-end systems. The overlap between automotive parts