Earnings beats are not enough: What experienced investors watch instead A stock can beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates and still fall sharply. Another company can miss an estimate and rally. This is not necessarily irrational. Stock prices respond to how results compare with the expectations already reflected in the price, not simply whether the headline

Why Retail Traders Are Rethinking Traditional Prop Firms US stocks end the week mixed; Russell 2000 closes at a record Trump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the US The weekly Baker Hughes rig count rises by 5 in the current week Fed’s Goolsbee: US GDP and labor markets are basically

The EURUSD moved sharply higher through the European and early North American sessions, but the rally ran into a familiar technical roadblock. For the second Friday in a row, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average, only to struggle to sustain momentum. This time, buyers pushed the price into the next key target area

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count showed: Oil up 1 to 455 Natural gas up 4 to 128 Total rigs +5 to 593.   Versus a year ago, the Oil is up from 412, Natural gas is up from 122 and total is up from 539.  Crude oil is trading at $82.19, up $0.94 of the

The report says that the BOJ is eyeing to raise interest rates as soon as the September meeting next month and could even consider hiking more aggressively thereafter. The thinking is that the Japanese central bank would want to move from its current pace of hiking roughly twice a year to a much faster one.

Q2 GDP second estimate +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelim Prior (Q1) +0.1%; revised to 0.0% There is no change to the preliminary estimate but there is a minor downgrade to the Q1 GDP estimate on the quarter, which is now seen flat instead of posting a marginal growth. Compared to the same quarter last year,

The major US stock indices are trading lower on the day, taking some of the shine off what had been a technically positive week. S&P index: down -0.23% on the day, but still holding onto a 0.30% gain for the week. NASDAQ index: down -0.52% today and now -0.09% for the week. For the S&P,

This builds from the technical position from yesterday here: Gold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation data As mentioned then, one of the potential plays for gold was: “With price action stalling in the past few days, the buying momentum is starting to run out of oomph. If we do see a break

US July PPI 4.7% y/y vs 4.9% expected US initial claims for the current week 209K vs 202K estimate Fed’s Barkin: Still an open question on whether the FOMC needs to hike rates Fed’s Hammack: Need some restraint from mon pol to bring down inflation Fed’s Barkin: It’s hard to know whether policy is restrictive

Coming into today’s trading, USDCAD had been confined to a relatively narrow range for the week. The high was set on Monday at 1.3964, while Wednesday’s low reached 1.3908 — a range of just 56 pips (see red box on the chart below). However, as posted yesterday, the sellers still had the strongest hand (see

Headlines: Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market mood Bitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold next BOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tightening German wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapses French inflation accelerates again in July,

The US dollar is trading lower across the board to start the North American session on Friday, with the greenback losing ground against all of the major currencies. The NZD is leading the way, rising 0.62% versus the USD and back above the 100 and 200 hour MAs (see chart below), while the GBP is

Well, it’s starting to look like a feature and not a bug anymore. The latest credit data for the month of July sees China new bank loans fall into contraction again, shrinking by ¥340 billion. That is a miss on expectations, which were expecting lending to increase by ¥45 billion instead. That is a rather disappointing estimate

US stocks hit records, but oil and weaker earnings signals demand more selectivity US stocks remain supported by softer inflation and lower expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. However, two risks are becoming harder to ignore: elevated oil prices and a defensive shift in recent earnings reactions. The market is still constructive, but traders

The affirmation removes near term downgrade risk from the US sovereign story, but the accompanying commentary leans cautious rather than reassuring. Fitch’s growth downgrade from 2.8% to 1.9% alongside a weakening labor market gives fixed income desks another data point supporting the softer Fed rate hike odds already in play this week. The agency’s explicit

Prior month +1.3% Manufacturing Sales +0.1% versus -0.1% estimate Details: Manufacturing sales: +0.1% m/m to $78.8 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Year over year: Sales were +14.5%. Excluding petroleum & coal: Sales increased a much stronger 2.6% m/m. Constant-dollar sales: +1.2%, suggesting underlying volumes were firmer than the headline nominal increase. Subsector highlights Chemicals: +6.0%

After the joint intervention from Japan and the US, the yen currency has been a key focus again in recent weeks. And that just amplifies all the scrutiny on the upcoming BOJ policy decision, with some speculation that the joint intervention included some promise on Japan’s end to push for higher interest rates. While a

Prior was +0.2% Ex autos -0.3% vs +0.2% exp Ex gas and autos -0.2% vs +0.4% prior Retail control -0.4% vs +0.3% exp Retail sales y/y nominal 5.01% vs +6.72% prior The thinking is that the US consumer will continue spend so long as the jobs market holds up but this report dents that view.

UBS is telling clients that despite the risk of bouts of volatility as Fed policy expectations shift with each data print, the broader global equity rally remains intact and the bank still sees upside for the S&P 500. The more notable call is the push toward diversification, with UBS arguing that concentration risk in US

Bloomberg TV today spoke with Paula Seligson about software stocks and a recent report on how much risk there is in the sector. The “SaaSpocalypse” was a theme early in the year and some of those companies have had great bounces from the bottom but the problem isn’t going away. The kill app for AI is programming

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. The expiries here don’t tie to any technical significance but may just offer a bit of a pull factor in keeping price action more limited in the session ahead. The

In my previous Bitcoin analysis, I showed that the assigned score of -4 (which means moderately bearish), and the bears are indeed still proving to be stronger than the bulls as Bitcoin continues struggling to reclaim ground below $64,000. Looking at the broader macro backdrop, we could see an increase in risk-off sentiment soon following

Barkin’s refusal to prejudge September, delivered before Goolsbee‘s more dovish framing later the same day, leaves the committee’s public messaging looking genuinely split three ways rather than a simple hawks versus doves story. His emphasis on 3.7% core PCE and the risk of embedding expectations keeps a September or October hike firmly on the table

Switzerland Q2 flash GDP +1.5% q/q Prior (Q1) +0.4% This is only the provisional estimate and may be revised after when the more detailed report is released, after around another 60 days. As such, there’s not all too much detailed information on this one. The Swiss statistics office did note that: “The industrial sector made

July final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +1.8% July final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Diverging signals from Richmond and Cleveland Fed presidents this week underline how unsettled the September rate path remains, with markets currently pricing roughly a one third chance of a hike, down from about half earlier in the week after softer producer price data. Oil traders are increasingly decoupling price from the Hormuz conflict itself, with

The dollar is trading on the softer side in European morning trade, nudging lower despite an absence of any major catalysts. The dollar drop comes amid a mixed mood in broader markets, so that’s not giving a consistent look in the final stretch of the week. USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 159.13 currently but still

The scale of this shift is the story: China’s exports have gone from under 600,000 vehicles in 2019 to a forecast of up to 10 million this year, and shipping capacity simply hasn’t kept pace despite a 40 percent expansion in the global car-carrier fleet. Charter rates have nearly doubled since late last year, a

July final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +1.8% July final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.1% in July, amid a renewed increase in price pressures all around. Core annual inflation is also seen accelerating again, moving up to 1.3% in July – up

July wholesale prices +0.2% m/m Prior -0.7% July wholesale prices +5.3% y/y Prior +4.9% German wholesale prices nudged up in July, owing much to another bump in the price of petroleum products. The expiration of the temporary reduction in the energy tax rate on gasoline and diesel (which lapsed after 30 June) helped to see their

BOTTOM LINE: Outlook for investors The rapid growth demonstrates strong commercial demand for generative AI across both consumer and corporate sectors. However, as OpenAI and Anthropic head toward their respective public debuts, investors will closely evaluate whether these growth rates can be maintained against the massive capital expenditures required to build and run next-generation models.

The pullback marks a clean break from the six session rally that had carried both benchmarks higher into Wednesday, with a hefty build in US crude stocks doing more to move price than any single geopolitical headline. Prices did claw back from a much steeper intraday drop of over 3.5% after the Houthi attack on

This lands directly on top of the yen story that had already been building through the week, with USD/JPY drifting back to around 159.50 after intervention drove it as low as roughly 155 last month. Furusawa’s comments effectively confirm what the market had started pricing in on its own, that verbal and physical intervention only

ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is the UAE’s state owned energy giant, spanning upstream production, gas, refining, petrochemicals and shipping through listed subsidiaries like ADNOC Gas and ADNOC Drilling. Its Murban crude is a key Gulf benchmark. Group CEO Sultan Al Jaber also serves as the UAE’s Industry Minister. Says 2 vessels attacked.

The abrupt pull raises the obvious question of timing, given the meeting had been on the calendar since Monday and was widely framed as the SEC stepping in to fill the gap left by the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act before recess. A genuine scheduling conflict is plausible given the short four day

This confirms the escalation we flagged as a live possibility in our earlier piece, this wasn’t a stray drone drifting off course, it required a NATO air defence mission to physically shoot it down over Latvian territory, a more serious outcome than the alert-and-clear pattern that has repeated through 2026. Combined with 15 drones downed

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

The calendar lists Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock as speaking today. I have not seen this listed on the RBA website.  This is an appearance in Parliament, before the committee on Economics. This is routine parliamentary scrutiny following the RBA’s August monetary policy decision (cash rate hold at 4.35% earlier this week). We had

I have been writing all year about the unbelievable size of the AI builtout in terms of spending and corporate capex. This is a great chart to put it into perspective and note that he dates are much more compressed than anything previously. What still puzzles me is exactly where all the money is going.

The U.S. dollar is starting the session modestly lower overall, although the moves remain relatively contained. The dollar is lower versus the euro, with EURUSD pair up 0.1% (lower USD), and slightly lower against the British pound, with GBPUSD up 0.01%. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar is also lower, with USDJPY pair down about

Hammack voted to hike rates at the most recent meeting alongside Kashkari and Logan. Businesses have adapted to tariff and oil shocks, there’s resilience and investment Raising rates can be painful but most not let growth and investment be so fast the economy overheats Inflation is broad-based and not just in certain sectors Payroll data

High yield 5.216% WI level at the time of the auction 5.212% Tail 0.4 basis points vs average of -0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.39X vs average of 2.43X Directs 21.6% vs average of 22.5% Indirects 66.8% vs average of 67.0% Dealers 11.6% vs average of 10.6% Auction Grade: C- The Tail was above

Prior week Initial claims 199K revised to 200K Initial claims 209K vs 202K estimate 4 week MA of initial claims 199K vs 199K prev. Continuing claims 1.777M vs 1.800M.  Prior 1.799M 4 week MA of continuing claims 1.785M vs 1.791M last week.  Looking at the trend the initial claims remains int he range indicative of

The USDCHF remains locked in a broader range that has contained most of the price action between 0.8029 and 0.8151. There have been brief moves outside those extremes, but neither buyers nor sellers have been able to generate enough momentum to establish a sustained break. Near the middle of that range sit two important technical

The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell to 6.67% from 6.69% last week.   A year ago the 30 year yield was at 6.58%. Mortgage rates aren’t set directly by the Fed; they are driven primarily by mortgage-backed securities, which tend to move with longer-term Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year. The 10 year yield last

Sandisk is having it’s investor day and the traders are liking what they hear.  The company has used its 2026 Investor Day to highlight its long-term growth opportunity from AI and, more importantly for investors, lay out an aggressive financial framework for FY2028 through FY2030. On the product side, Sandisk expects AI inference to significantly

European shares are closing lower on the day, failing to follow the mostly positive tone in U.S. equities. The declines come despite the softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data, which showed headline producer prices unchanged in July versus a 0.2% increase expected, while the year-on-year rate slowed to 4.7% from 5.5%. The major European indices are ending

Goldman’s read reinforces the market’s post-CPI lean toward a September hold, adding a well-known sell-side voice to a narrative already supported by Wednesday’s in-line print. The more interesting signal sits in the PCE preview: a modest overshoot driven by portfolio management fees is a technical, market-linked distortion rather than a genuine reacceleration in underlying prices,

83% of economists expect ECB to raise deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 2.50% in September 80% of economists expect the deposit facility rate to remain at 2.50% by year-end 63% of economists expect the deposit facility rate to stay at 2.50% until at least Q3 2027 Well, the 57 of 69 (~83%) of

In case you missed it: US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expected The US CPI report yesterday didn’t offer much of any surprises, with the key estimates all falling in line with expectations. With core annual inflation sitting with the consensus and headline annual inflation easing a touch, it should offer up some added comfort

Any time there is a sudden move in the oil market, the collective reaction of traders is to say: Something is happening in the Middle East that we don’t know about. In terms of what is reported, Houthie rebels hit a ship today and killed six sailors while the US struck the engine room of

The key takeaway for positioning is that Japan’s firepower is not the constraint, capacity is described as ample, so the real variable is timing and trigger rather than ability to act. Goldman’s framing puts two catalysts on watch: a miss on US data that weakens the case for further Fed tightening, which would narrow the

Just the data in this post.  Japanese PPI July 2026 will add to the case for a September BOJ rate hike: +7.2% y/y vs. expected +7.4% and prior + 7.1% +0.1% m/m vs. expected +0.6% and prior +0.4% I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil futures has moved lower, with sellers gaining momentum after the price broke below its 100-hour moving average at $81.39. The move lower follows repeated failures earlier this week to sustain gains above the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-July high to the early-August low. That retracement comes in

The USDCAD moved lower yesterday, with sellers able to push the pair below its 100-day moving average, currently at 1.39186. That break gave sellers an opportunity to take greater control from a longer-term technical perspective. However, the downside momentum could not be sustained. The price quickly snapped back higher and moved into the close toward

June industrial production 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.2%; revised to +0.3% Euro area industrial output was stable in June, even with a more positive revision to the May figure to boot. Relative to the same month a year ago, industrial production was seen up 0.1%. So, it still suggests that overall conditions remain

Prior was 5.5% PPI m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% exp PPI ex-food and energy +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% exp PPI ex-food and energy +4.2% y/y vs 4.2% exp Prior ex-food and energy +4.7% This is more evidence for a softer PCE inflation report later in the month and is a negative for the US dollar, which

Kent’s remarks read as a central bank comfortable with where policy currently sits rather than signalling further tightening is imminent, with the acknowledgment that the cash rate is near the top of neutral estimates suggesting limited appetite to push materially higher from here without fresh cause. The housing market softening he describes, partly attributed to

Still an open question on whether Fed needs to hike or if inflation is already on a path lower There are reasons to think price pressures are embedded, with either weakening demand or a rate hike needed There are strong arguments that inflation will ease, given modest wage pressure and tariff, oil and other shocks

Daiwa’s framing supports the broader post-CPI consensus that the Fed stays on hold in September, but the note’s real value is in the underlying detail rather than the headline call. The bank draws a clear line between areas still running hot, medical care and airline fares among them, and housing components that continue to track

The story adds another data point to the broader trend of AI platforms striking commercial deals with publishers rather than relying solely on scraped or trained-in content, a shift that has become a modest but growing revenue line for media companies. For Apple specifically, it signals the company is treating the upcoming Siri overhaul as

The move underlines how the 52.5% tariff on Chinese-built vehicles is now driving concrete reshoring decisions rather than just squeezing margins on existing import volumes, with Ford following General Motors down the same path on separate Lincoln and Buick nameplates. For Ford specifically, shifting Nautilus production onshore removes a tariff and regulatory overhang tied to

The split between Westpac and ASB matters more than the headline forecast itself, since it signals genuine uncertainty over how sticky the oil-driven inflation shock is proving in household and business psychology, precisely the dynamic the RBNZ is watching most closely as it tightens. A stronger-than-expected print, in line with Westpac’s call, would reinforce the

Taken as a whole, Kent’s remarks RBA assistant Gov Kent: cash rate increases are having their intended effect More from RBA’s Kent: Flags upside inflation risk, further hikes possible, warns on equities read as a central bank confident its tightening is transmitting as intended but unwilling to declare victory, a combination that argues for a

June monthly GDP +0.3% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior +0.1%; revised to 0.0% June services output +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.1% June industrial output -0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.7% June manufacturing output -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.1%; revised to -0.2% June construction output

Q2 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q expected Prior +0.6% The UK economy is seen posting modest growth in Q2, matching with expectations. In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was mainly driven by an increase of 0.5% in the services sector. Meanwhile, the construction sector increased by 0.3% and production output showed no growth. Compared

UBS’s call is constructive on both the cyclical and structural drivers of gold, tying the metal’s outlook directly to its Fed rate path view: a hold through 2026 followed by renewed easing in 2027 would pull real yields lower and weigh on the dollar, the classic combination that has historically drawn investment flows back into

Headlines: It’s on to Jackson Hole next.. Dollar stays more muted so far today amid lack of any post-CPI momentum Gold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation data UK Q2 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q expected UK economy posts unexpected growth in June on stronger services sector showing Spain inflation nudges

The US CPI report for July yesterday fell within expectations and that is perhaps the last thing traders were hoping for this week. While it set the tone that inflation isn’t exactly running hot, it is not enough to discount the possibility of the Fed still needing to raise interest rates in September. The dollar

Every trader is familiar with that anxious moment when you finish your technical analysis, select your position size, and hit the Buy or Sell button. In less than the blink of an eye, your order is processed, and your active Profit & Loss (PnL) begins floating on your terminal screen. Because order execution feels instant,

This second batch of comments tempers the more settled tone from Kent’s earlier remarks on rate transmission and neutral rate estimates. Explicitly aligning with Governor Bullock’s view that inflation risks lean to the upside, and floating the possibility of further hikes if those risks materialise, pushes the overall message from “policy is working as intended”

Analysts and traders were jolly about the continued AI trade as others were thinking it’s oversold. The bulls were good with AI stocks being in the green but Cisco which reported last night, temporarily broke up its all-time high but then sold off and is now over 6% down U.S. markets are starting Thursday with

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.1500 through to 1.1550. That creates a bit of a similar conundrum as in the last few days. for the currency pair. The downside will

The US CPI report yesterday was the main event this week for markets, and it didn’t quite live up to the billing unfortunately. There were no major surprises in terms of the numbers, so that is leaving market players needing to settle back into the pattern before that. For gold, US-Iran developments remain key but

July final CPI +3.6% vs +3.5% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% July final HICP +3.9% vs +3.8% y/y prelim Prior +3.6% Spain inflation is confirmed to accelerate again in July, with headline annual inflation seen at 3.6%. That is a notable step up from the 3.2% estimate in June, with the jump owing much to a

This US fiscal picture isn’t improving but it might not be quite as bad as it looks. The July deficit of $432 billion compared to last year’s level of $291 billion and exceeded the consensus estimate of $346 billion. The main problem is government spending as it hit a record for the month of July at $766

The miss against forecast should not be read as genuine disinflation. At 7.2%, Japanese producer price growth remains near multi-year highs, and the shortfall against the 7.4% consensus is a modest undershoot on an already elevated base rather than a meaningful turn in the trend. The more important number here is the 29.1% jump in

The practical read for positioning is that Tokyo’s ability to act again is not meaningfully constrained, whatever the informal IMF optics suggest, since both reserve capacity and official statements point to room to intervene if the trigger materialises. The nuance worth flagging is the distinction between a hard cap and a soft classification threshold: crossing

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. more to come  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $83.27, up $0.07 or 0.08% on the day. The session high reached $84.35, while the low extended to $82.40. Technically, crude is settling back below the 50% retracement of the decline from the July high at $83.87. The price traded above that level earlier in the session, but buyers

The US CPI data came out earlier but if the Fed and new Fed Chair had a favorite inflation measure it remains the PCE.  The important thing to realize is that PCE is not simply CPI translated into another index. The BEA builds PCE using a mix of CPI, PPI, and other source data. For

Prior was 3.5% Unrounded +3.365% CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% exp Prior CPI was -0.4% Unrounded CPI m/m +0.074% vs -0.422% prior Core readings: Core y/y 2.5% vs 2.5% expected — lowest since Feb Prior core was 2.6% Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m +0.0% Unrounded +0.215% m/m vs -0.017% prior  Core-CPI services ex-Rent/OER

High yield 4.683% WI 4.682% Tail 0.1 basis points vs average of +0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.53X vs 6 month average of 2.47X Directs 14.7% vs 17.7% average Indirects 76.7% vs 71.3% average Dealers 8.6% vs 11.0% average Auction Grade: B+ There was a modest tail but it is against an average of

Canadian consumers accelerated spending in the second quarter and it wasn’t just because of higher gasoline prices. RBC says that based on its cardholder data, spending rose 2.4% in the quarter excluding sales at gas stations. Moreover, spending on discretionary goods rose 3.7% from Q1. “Household and construction purchases saw its first quarterly gain since

The U.S. CPI report came in right in line with expectations for both the headline and core readings, giving the market some confidence that the broader inflation trend continues to move in the right direction. Shelter costs accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, suggesting inflation would look considerably better if housing-related pressures begin

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Why BTC Is Struggling Below $64,000 as Sellers Re-Take Control Bitcoin futures are navigating a shaky short-term setup today. After a quick bounce from $63,260 stalled right around the $64,000 mark, sellers stepped right back into the driver’s seat. While the immediate outlook leans bearish, BTC is hovering near crucial support levels

Prior was +0.2% m/m 16% trimmed mean CPI +0.2% vs 0.0% prior On a 12-month basis: Median CPI 2.7% vs 2.7% prior 16% trimmed-mean 2.6% vs 2.6% prior Here is the Cleveland Fed’s description of what they’re doing: A number of measures have been developed to measure underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy

Prior was +2479K Gasoline -968K vs -1199K expected Distillates -10K vs -200K expected API data from late yesterday: Crude +9072K Gasoline -1531K Distillates -596K For the week ending August 7, another 6.1 million barrels left the SPR and it recently broke below 300 million barrels. That is a massive build, though some of it was

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Silver has been rallying steadily since last Tuesday on US-Iran deal hopes and found some further support from a softer than expected NFP report. The momentum looks to be running out of steam though and it will likely need support from the US CPI report today to extend the gains. The data

Tech stocks are leading the way higher in trading today, with semiconductor shares among the strongest performers. Nvidia is currently up 2.56%, Micron is up 6.20%, Intel is higher by 3.25%, and AMD is gaining 2.64%.  All of those gains are all of those gains are higher than the average is with the NASDAQ index up

The story is more interesting for what it reveals about Tether’s balance sheet than for any market impact from the shutdown itself, since Alloy was always a rounding error against Tether’s broader gold holdings, with only a few hundred thousand dollars of Tether Gold locked in the platform against a company wide stash worth close

The US inflation data later will cover the month of July and the estimates are as per the following: Headline CPI +0.1% m/m est. (Prior -0.4%) Headline CPI +3.4% y/y est. (Prior +3.5%) Core CPI +0.2% m/m est. (Prior 0.0%) Core CPI +2.5% y/y est. (Prior +2.6%) As always, the core numbers will be the

The U.S. dollar is starting the session lower against the major currencies. The dollar is slightly lower versus the euro, with EURUSD up 0.03%, and lower against the British pound, with GBPUSD up 0.15%. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar is also slightly lower, with USDJPY down 0.12%. In the Kickstart video above, I take

Prior month -1.7% revised to -3.0% Building permits for June +18.5% vs +0.8% estimate.  Needless to say much stronger than expected.  The growth in construction intentions in June was led by the non-residential sector (+$1.8 billion), while the residential sector (+$479.7 million) made a smaller contribution. Details: Non-residential building permits: Rose $1.8 billion to $6.8 billion in June,

The decision was fully priced and unanimous, so the market reaction sits less in the outcome than in the tone. CBA reads the Board’s strengthened conditional guidance, that it will hike further if upside risks materialise, as a deliberate signal to prevent markets from getting ahead of themselves on rate cut timing, even as the

Australia sets world leading pay floor for 250,000 gig delivery workers Gulf states quietly by-pass choke points as Hormuz risk lingers, Saudi Oman deal fits pattern Asian shares diverge as chip rally lifts Kospi, Nikkei awaits US CPI World’s biggest private gold holder Tether gives users weeks to exit vault Trump says has total control

Gold is a winner again today, up $67 to $4434 and just edging above the weekly high set yesterday. There has been a remarkable resurgence in gold since August 5 as it’s gained nearly 10% since on a series of strong days. Helping it has been softer US economic data, including Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.

Retail traders adopted a more defensive approach during the second quarter of 2026 as geopolitical tensions and mixed macroeconomic signals created uncertainty across global markets, according to easyMarkets’ latest quarterly trading review. While Gold remained the most traded instrument on the easyMarkets platform during Q2, followed by Crude Oil and US Stock Indices, overall trading

July final CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.3% July final HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The strong rally in the Nasdaq has stalled last Wednesday as the US-Iran deal failed to materialise within the expected timeline. Since then, the price action has been mostly rangebound with just the softer than expected NFP reportproviding some support. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the

India’s retail inflation accelerated in July, with the Consumer Price Index rising 4.45% y/y, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The reading marked a renewed increase in price pressures after headline inflation stood at 4.38% in June, but the data came below the 4.5% forecast.  The July figure

Headlines: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? What to expect from the US CPI report later today? Iran reportedly maintains that there are no discussions over ceasefire extension as the pact doesn’t exist anymore USD/JPY stalls ahead of a key US CPI report; BoJ expected to raise rates in September Bitcoin

National Australia Bank analyst framing puts less weight on the RBA’s unchanged headline numbers and more on the subtle language shift between June and August, arguing that a smaller output gap and a “somewhat restrictive” description of financial conditions together suggest the Board thinks the economy no longer needs to slow further to bring inflation

The direct macro effect here is likely to be modest but real, and skews inflationary at the margin. A mandated hourly floor of A$31.30, roughly 18% above the national minimum wage, lifts labour costs across a delivery sector that touches food and grocery prices for a large share of households, and platforms will need to

There are no discussions with the US over extending ceasefire agreement From Iran’s perpsecitve, there is no ceasefire start date and therefore there is nothing to extend The US violated the agreement 48 hours after it was reached and withdrew from it a few days later One of the issues that is being discussed is

MUFG’s framing puts the RBA firmly in the same bucket as other central banks now watching an externally driven inflation shock rather than a domestically generated one, which changes the calculus for how quickly policy might need to respond. The bank reads today’s RBA communication as deliberately unhurried rather than dovish, arguing the Board has

Brent is back above $90, while WTI has topped $80, as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from assured. Reuters reports that only six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, well below the 10-day average of around 11, despite statements from Trump and Bessent that “we could reach an agreement

July final CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% July final HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Supported keeping interest rates unchanged in July, Fed position remains “mildly restrictive” Sees the possibility that economic conditions in the coming months will require tighter policy Would be prepared to raise interest rates in such a context Warns against jumping to conclusions on latest jobs data Private-sector hiring remains positive and unemployment rate is still

Crude’s inability to break decisively in either direction reflects a market caught between two credible but contradictory signals: mediator optimism on Hormuz and continued kinetic escalation at sea. Traders are fading both the de-escalation headlines and the attack headlines almost as quickly as they land, which points to positioning that is short-term neutral but structurally

The split between Tokyo and Seoul on Wednesday captures two different reads on the same macro backdrop. Japanese investors are staying cautious ahead of the US inflation print, unwilling to commit to a direction with both Fed rate expectations and the Middle East outlook still unresolved, which has kept the Nikkei essentially rangebound and its

Goolsbee’s comments carry limited direct market weight given he holds no vote this year, but they land at a moment when the Fed’s internal balance of opinion is genuinely contested, with three of twelve voting policymakers already having pushed for a hike in July. His framing reinforces the camp arguing inflation, not labour softness, should

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The improvement in both readings, and particularly the jump in the chemicals and metal and machinery sub-indexes, points to semiconductor supply chain strength continuing to broaden out across Japan’s industrial base rather than staying concentrated in a narrow set of chipmakers. That the manufacturers’ index has reached its best level since March suggests the earlier

Hatzius’s forecast, a headline print around 0.05% month on month and core near 0.19%, would sit in line with or slightly below consensus and reinforce the softer trend he says began in June, a read that would ease pressure on the Fed heading into September if it holds. The more consequential number in the interview

Trump’s tarmac comments sit awkwardly against the news flow of the past several days, with Iran’s top security official reiterating the strait stays closed until Washington meets its conditions, continued Houthi and blockade related shipping attacks, and Brent and WTI both grinding higher on that same uncertainty. One reading traders may take from the remarks,

Not much of note here. Japanese markets retrun from a holiday Tuesday (that stretched to a long weekend for many in the markets!). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The move higher in JGB yields, led by a record high on the five year and the highest two year print since May 1995, reflects markets pricing a firmer case for further Bank of Japan tightening as imported inflation risk builds via crude. That the two year, the tenor most sensitive to BOJ policy, is

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Zero 7-day reverse repos volume today, PBOIC citing demand from primary dealers This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

On its own, this is a modest private sector logistics agreement with no disclosed financial terms or volume targets, so it carries little standalone significance for freight or shipping pricing. Its relevance lies in what it confirms about direction of travel across the Gulf: alongside June’s Turkey-Saudi rail and logistics MOUs explicitly framed as an

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

The roller-coaster price action in the USDCHF continues, but for now the buyers remain in control. The pair remains above both its 100-hour moving average at 0.80956 and its 200-hour moving average at 0.80902, and today extended into the next key swing area between 0.81079 and 0.81195. The session high reached 0.8120, just above the

Markets continue to digest earnings reports and AI developments. The big news yesterday on the $500 billion in AI capex fundraising has added to questions about who will pay for it but it led to some nice gains for asset managers.  The laggard was Google as it fell another 3.5%. It continues to struggle after

Westpac’s read draws a sharper line than the RBA’s own statement suggests, treating the narrower “if upside risks materialise” language as evidence the Board has effectively downgraded its hike bias even while refusing to say so explicitly. Westpac’s own base case has firmed toward an extended hold running through to the middle of next year,

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower, with the NASDAQ the weakest of the major indices, while small caps bucked the trend with the Russell 2000 posting a gain. The closing levels show: Dow industrial average: fell 184.02 points or -0.34% at 53,797.39 S&P index: fell 24.94 points or -0.32% at 7,728.18 NASDAQ composite: fell 159.91 points

This builds on the previous story here: ONS to only lay groundwork for labour market statistical improvements in August For some backdrop, this has been an ongoing issue for well over three years now. The issue with UK labour market data is more of the accuracy and consistency during the past few years, largely due to

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European equity indices are closing mixed, but Germany’s DAX and Spain’s Ibex stand out after closing at new record highs. The DAX rose 0.26%, while the Ibex added 0.20%, extending the recent run of record-setting performances across European equities. European markets have been pushing into record

The NZDUSD has been stuck in a narrow 49-pip trading range over the last seven trading days, highlighting a market that has seen plenty of intraday and day-to-day price action but very little net progress. The broader move had been more bullish following the June 26 low, but that momentum has transitioned into a more

Prior was 4.09m (revised to 4.13m) Sales -1.7% vs -2.4% prior (revised to -1.4%) Home prices +2.0% y/y Median price $434,100 Inventory at 4.6 months vs 4.6 months prior The housing market is in a steady state that isn’t helped by high mortgage rates due to rising Treasury yields.  There is some steady growth in

Prices and affordability, that’s the biggest prolem we are facing right now Labor market is stable is stable, without being good This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

With a hold from the RBA today priced in almost unanimously, the rate decision itself carries little market moving potential, and the real signal will come from the Statement, the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy, and the Governor’s press conference. A dissent from any of the seven non-RBA Board members in favour of tightening would

Sees upside risks to inflation Expects a period of subdued economic growth will be required to bring inflation down Ready to raise cash rate again if needed Not ruling out further rate hikes, need more information The board discussed raising the cash rate today Did not discuss a rate cut, only a rate hike or

Asian markets are slowly kicking off for Tuesday, August 11, 2026. I’ve done a bit of a catch up on what I missed since I wrapped up Monday. I find doing this helps me, so hopefully it’ll add some value for you.  – Monday’s session saw the Hormuz risk premium take a sharp leg higher

MUFG has opened a new long AUD/JPY position at 111.20, targeting 114.50 with a stop at 109.20, arriving alongside the bank’s broader assessment that yen direction will ultimately be driven by fundamentals rather than by the joint US-Japan intervention effort. The bank argues history is instructive here, noting that in 1995, 1998 and 2011 USD/JPY

So the latest buzzword — or buzzphrase — is that “Compute is an investable asset class”. It’s a line that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is touting and it’s throwing up all kinds of red flags for me. Firstly, I’m reminded of very similar wording around crypto near the top, just at the time the Wall

Italy’s trade balance recorded a €4.23 billion surplus in June 2026, with both exports and imports increasing on a monthly and annual basis, according to seasonally adjusted data. Exports rose 1.6% m/m, while imports increased by 1.2%. The stronger export performance was driven primarily by trade with EU countries, where exports jumped 6.7%, while shipments

The broader S&P and Nasdaq indices are mixed in intraday trading, with the S&P currently up around 0.07% while the Nasdaq is down -0.08%. For the S&P index, the technical picture remains bullish as the index trades near its all-time high of 7793.68, reached during last week’s trading. A break above that level would put

I’m still not seeing a problem with the jobs market Says she doesn’t think one 25 bps move will do much Current rate is not meaningfully restricting the economy Would probably need some number of hikes No intention to prejudge the number of rate increases Hammack dissented in the prior meeting so this isn’t a

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The strong rally in the S&P 500 has stalled last Wednesday as the US-Iran deal failed to materialise within the expected timeline. Since then, the price action has been mostly rangebound with just softer than expected NFP reportproviding some support. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the

Pakistan defense minister Khawaja Asif told Bloomberg that “things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or a deal,” on Hormuz shipping transits. That’s a sharp turnabout after yesterday Trump escalated rhetoric and called for US reparations in response to a similar Iranian call. The countries are  close to “some sort of

A Reuters analyst argues that Japan’s failure to follow through on its recent joint intervention, particularly by not amplifying Friday’s dollar weakness after the soft US jobs data, signals a passive rather than active strategy aimed at merely slowing the dollar’s advance rather than reversing the yen’s multi-year decline. That reading matters for positioning because

Singapore’s sharp upgrade to its 2026 growth forecast, more than doubling the top end of its previous range, signals that the AI investment boom is now doing more work in the region’s growth outlook than the Middle East conflict is doing damage, a rebalancing that matters for how traders price broader Asian growth exposure. The

Prior was 97.4 Full report here Optimism among US small business owners strengthened further in July, with the NFIB index rising 2.4 points to 99.8. The reading moved above the index’s 52-year average of 98.0 and reached its highest level since August 2025. The July increase was broad-based, with eight of the index’s 10 components

South Korean equities extended their advance for a second straight session, with Samsung Electronics doing much of the heavy lifting even as SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution moved lower, pointing to stock specific rather than broad based sector strength. Foreign investors turning net buyers alongside a stronger won suggests some renewed appetite for Korean

Intel’s decision to raise $15 billion in fresh equity after a more than 400% rally over the past year reflects a company looking to lock in favourable market conditions while funding an aggressive spending ramp tied to AI demand. The 4% share price decline on the announcement is a fairly typical market reaction to a

US July NFIB small business optimism index 99.8 vs 97.5 expected Another cargo ship reportedly struck by the Houthis in the Red Sea UK stats office to only decide in July next year on plausibility of transition to improved labour market data Italy trade surplus widens to €4.2 billion in June as exports accelerate The

The UK consumer data paints a mixed picture that will matter for the sterling and gilt outlook heading into upcoming inflation and retail sales releases. BRC’s headline retail sales growth slowing to 1.3% year on year in July from 1.9% in June, alongside like-for-like sales easing to 1.0% from 1.7%, points to underlying softness even

Goldman’s note adds a capital flows dimension to a yen debate that has so far centred on intervention and rate differentials, and the read is that Tokyo’s push to redirect investment home has not yet changed actual investor behaviour. Ministry of Finance data showing continued sizable net purchases of foreign bonds in July suggests any

Oil price prediction: Crude holds near breakout highs, but $82.55 is the line bulls need to clear Crude oil futures remain technically bullish after surging from the high-$77s into the low-$82s, although consolidation near the highs shows that buyers have yet to secure a clean continuation. Based on user-supplied CL SEP26 30-minute data covering August

Despite the joint intervention move by Japan and the US, it doesn’t seem to be sticking all too much. USD/JPY is already on its way back up in pushing above 159 this week, though I would argue that traders will remain a bit more cautious in chasing a move above 160 for now. While the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

The rupee’s weakness is a fairly direct read through of the broader oil driven risk premium building around the Hormuz standoff, with Brent’s advance toward the $88 level adding fresh pressure on India’s import bill and currency. RBI’s consistent dollar selling near current levels is doing the heavy lifting in capping losses, with traders explicitly

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. Markets are continuing to stay in the countdown to the US CPI report tomorrow. That is the main event this week and as such, major currencies are also more or less caught in a bind until we

This report adds a further layer of support to the yen thesis that has been building across recent coverage, where market participants including MUFG and Goldman Sachs have argued that genuine, lasting yen strength depends on the BoJ actually delivering further tightening rather than on intervention alone. Sources cited by Jiji suggesting the Bank may

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Previews of today’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision are here: RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% Tuesday RBA preview – Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35% Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026 This article was written

Fed’s Hammack: Now is the time to bring more restraint into policy Trump says he is demanding compensation from Iran for people killed It’s time to start the countdown on Atlantic hurricane season US July employment trends 107.71 vs 106.74 prior Intel dilutes shareholders: Will launch $15 billion secondary Markets: WTI crude up $3.90 to

Four straight days of gains in both gold and oil is a rare occurence and it makes me anxious about the status of the US dollar. It’s notable that the gains have come amidst US intervention in the yen and yet-another mess in the Iran strategy. In any case, the bounce in gold hasn’t run out

USD/JPY is starting to remind me of the Iran war: There’s a battle but no defined strategy. It’s abundantly clear that both Japan and the US want USD/JPY lower but we don’t know how low they want it to go, or what they’re prepared to do to get in there (and hold it there). For

Here we go with Trump slowly raising the rhetoric on Iran. I see that Representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran are asking for compensation for the damage done to them during the last five month Military Conflict (started because, THEY WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON), even though it was never mentioned in any

We are edging close to hurricane season in the Atlantic basis and we might get an early start with two systems being monitored in the mid-Atlantics. The NHC sees a 60% of one system forming into a tropical cyclone (in orange) and a 10% chance of another. The second one is on a more-notable track

This is a direct confirmation of the price path our own coverage has been pointing toward, with Citi effectively conceding its earlier timeline for a Hormuz resolution was too optimistic rather than abandoning the resolution thesis altogether. The 5 dollar upward revision to the Q3 number is modest relative to the scale of disruption we

As we were approaching the end of July, it looked like the AI rally and tech shares were going to be in for a rough summer. But fast forward to two weeks later, suddenly we’re talking more about fresh record highs again than any concerns that might put a dent to the overall market sentiment.

In its latest manifesto, “The Future is for Everyone,” Meta paints a dazzling picture of the next decade: a world where superintelligence is democratized, eight-year-olds code complex software, and personal AI tutors cure societal inequality. The essay aggressively positions Meta not as a tech monolith, but as a digital Robin Hood, wresting control of AI

This builds directly on the rally we flagged in our earlier gold piece, where a weak payrolls print pushed bullion to a seven week high, and UBS’s note gives that move a structural rather than purely tactical framing. The bank’s 5000 dollar target implies roughly 18 percent upside from the recent break above 4250 dollars

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Crude oil sold off last Tuesday as the expectations for a US-Iran deal grew stronger. In fact, on Tuesday, Qatari mediators said that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted and US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an Iran deal could have come as soon as Wednesday and would

Intel is selling $15 billion of common stock in a secondary offering as it dilutes shareholders (and the US government). Underwriters have an option for $2.25 billion more as well. Intel closed Friday at $101.65 for a market cap of about $562 billion, with a 52-week range of $19.61 to $142.35. The stock is up

Headlines: The USD is at a crossroads ahead of CPI, while the AUD awaits RBA rate decision Iran foreign ministry reaffirms that there are no negotiations with the US currently Oil prices trim losses on delayed US-Iran deal; lack of US attacks keeps hopes alive Gold price forecast: Why 4,432 could decide whether the bullish

Varadhan’s oil call is the piece most worth flagging against our own coverage, since it sits in tension with the escalation we have just reported, including Iran’s reported missile strike on a tanker in the US-backed southern corridor of Hormuz. His view that oil settles well below 70 dollars a barrel by year end rests

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday following a softer than expected NFP report, with the headline showing negative payroll growth and average hourly earnings missing forecasts by a notable margin. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday following a softer than expected NFP report, with the headline showing negative payroll growth and average hourly earnings missing forecasts by a notable margin. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike

Goldman Sachs’ note is mainly discussing the suggestion by US Treasury secretary Bessent on Japan making use of a Fed borrowing facility called the the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility. For some context, the facility allows for foreign central banks to lend their Treasuries for short periods instead of outright selling them if need be.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. PBOC says it injected 18 bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos in Open Market Operations today. Rate remains 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil trade idea: A five-entry swing short targets a possible move below $70 Crude oil futures are trading around $79.00, and rather than trying to predict an immediate decline, I am looking at an unusual swing-short setup that casts a wider net across a potential reversal zone. The idea uses five staggered short entries

Monday starts slow with nothing significant in terms of scheduled economic events for the FX market.  On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its monetary policy announcement and the U.S. will release the ADP weekly employment change and the existing home sales figures. Wednesday will bring the U.S. inflation prints and on Thursday

A hold from the RBA with continued hawkish rhetoric is the base case CBA is pricing in, and that combination, no move but no dovish pivot either, suggests limited near term direction for AUD from the decision itself. The more market relevant signal is CBA’s expectation that the RBA will revise its unemployment forecast higher

ICYMI – Citi lifts Q3 Brent forecast to 80 dollars as Iran war drags on Kosdaq circuit breaker triggered as Korean tech stocks surge. Kospi, Nikkei rise. RBA preview – Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35% Recap – BOJ debated faster rate hike pace in July, summary shows China’s

There is just one set to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1575 level. The expiries are sitting just on top of the 100-day moving average at 1.1567, so they will act as an additional layer for buyers to chew through on any upside

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday following a softer than expected NFP report, with the headline showing negative payroll growth and average hourly earnings missing forecasts by a notable margin. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike

This is a genuinely useful lens for a Reuters columnist on the oil market beyond the headline Hormuz standoff we have been tracking, since it shows China acting as the shock absorber for roughly 5 million bpd of lost Middle East supply rather than that loss showing up as a broader Asian or global price

We are only exchanging messages with the US via intermediaries There are no negotiations taking place currently Only negotiations are with Oman, and they are constructive and positive Not seeking to impose fees on ships transiting through Strait of Hormuz for now But if we implement mechanisms to monitor navigation and provide services, it is

Newmont stock prediction: NEM bull flag could open a path to new all-time highs, but patience matters Newmont stock has suddenly become one of the more interesting large-cap mining charts I am watching. NEM closed Friday at $112.98 after gaining more than 20% on the weekly candle, following an aggressive reversal from the lower boundary

This hardens the more bearish read from our earlier piece on Trump’s low key posture. The IRGC’s insistence that Hormuz stays a theatre of war until sanctions are lifted and compensation is paid suggests the Vahidi camp, not Pezeshkian’s, is currently setting the terms, and that argues for a firmer near term price floor rather

Trump’s optimistic framing, pointing to sub-80 dollar oil and easing consumer pain, reads as an attempt to project reassurance rather than a clear signal that risk has actually receded. The more telling variable for price is the internal Iranian power struggle rather than anything coming out of Washington. If the Pezeshkian camp gains ground and

Oil futures higher after a weekend of not much progress to end the war: Attacks: Reports that Iran missiles have hit a tanker off Oman in Hormuz Iran hot backing down: Iran vows Hormuz stays shut until US meets demands Trump all at sea: Trump: “we are low keying it” This article was written by

There is a more direct oil read here than a first glance suggests. Hamas is one of Iran’s regional proxies, and a genuine collapse of the Gaza ceasefire would give Tehran a pretext to harden its posture across every front simultaneously, Hormuz included, at a moment when the IRGC has already declared the strait a

In main Asian centre markets its just before: 5am in Tokyo 4am in Singapore and Hong Kong 6am in Australia and 8am in New Zealand Early indications show a slightly firmer USD from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1554 USD/JPY 157.79 GBP/USD 1.3487 USD/CHF 0.8088 USD/CAD 1.3961 AUD/USD 0.7060 NZD/USD 0.5879 I’ll be back with weekend news

Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions Tue: RBA Announcement Wed: German Final Inflation (Jul), IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Jul) Thu: Norges Bank Announcement, UK GDP (Q2), US PPI (Jul) Fri: EZ Employment (Q2) and GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), US Retail Sales (Jul), US University of Michigan Prelim (Aug) BoJ Summary of Opinions (Mon): The BoJ will release the Summary

Softer than expected CPI and PPI readings reinforce the picture of a two-speed Chinese economy, with strong exports and factory output offset by weak domestic demand, adding to the case for the accelerated fiscal spending Beijing’s leadership signalled at July’s Politburo meeting. The data suggests deflationary pressure has not been fully resolved despite the earlier

Comments from an unnamed US official via Reuters are weighing on oil: US actions will continue to be performance-based and tied to Iran’s implemntation of its commitments Once a deal is announced to restore commercial shipping without impediments, the US will lift the blockade of Iranian ports This sounds like real progress and oil prices

The US labour market debate is divided. Ask consumers and they’ll tell you hiring conditions are the worst since the mid-2010s (ex-pandemic). Ask the initial claims data and you’d conclude companies won’t let anyone go. Today the Fed’s Barkin reiterated that it’s a low-hire, low-fire economy. Zoom out and the pain is concentrated in one place:

Here’s the map. Monday, August 10 Berkshire Hathaway kicks off the week, and it’s the purest macro statement on the calendar: the size of the cash pile. Berkshire’s cash position is the market’s most-watched valuation opinion, and in the first full reporting period of the Abel era, any move to deploy — or keep hoarding

Oil +3 to 454 Nat gas -3 to 124 The US hasn’t been able to bring on much oil production since Trump came to office. The mantra of producer discipline is finally taking hold. I’d also be vary wary of adding given how quickly oil has dropped every time there has been a sign of

Bitcoin holds $65,000 after weak US jobs report and crypto bill delay: Is the breakout still alive? Bitcoin futures remain marginally constructive above the 64,990-65,005 support zone, but Friday’s breakout is not confirmed while price remains below 65,450-65,550. Ethereum futures are weaker, holding 1,915-1,918 but struggling to regain higher value. The result is a cautiously

Headlines: All eyes on the US jobs report now What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Gold stays supported amid Middle East de-escalation, but the US CPI could erase the gains Trump says a rate hike isn’t completely up to Warsh, it’s up to the Board How have interest rate expectations changed

One year inflation 3.6% vs 3.7% Three year inflation unchanged at 3.3% Five year inflation unchanged at 3.0% Current and expected personal finances improved Labor market expectations were mixed No big surprises in this one. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Can’t get a striaght answer out of this guy, he is still floundering: Strait is ‘sort of’ open right now I think war will end pretty soon Earlier: Oil surges as Strait of Hormuz shipping fears lift risk premium Now we are supposedly waiting on Trump’s decision on the Iran deal This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board this week following de-escalation in the Middle East and increased hopes for a US-Iran deal. The bearish momentum waned though probably because the anticipated timeline for the deal passed without an announcement. Nevertheless, the hopes for a deal will likely keep the greenback on

Prior was +57K Two-month net revision -103K May was +129K Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.2% Unrounded unemployment vs 4.1889% prior Participation rate 61.4% vs 61.5% prior U6 underemployment rate % vs 7.9% prior Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.5% expected Average weekly

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold continues to extend gains as the de-escalation in the Middle East and the hopes for a US-Iran deal reduced inflation and Fed tightening risks. Barring another escalation, the upside should remain supported. The next test will come next week with the release of the US CPI report. The data will be

The Globe & Mail is out with a somewhat optimistic report on the Canadian trade situation and, in turn, the Canadian dollar. It highlights trade negotiations that are currently ongoing between the US and Canada, and appear to be in the final stretch. It says: Canada would address a long list of US trade irritants

The non-farm payrolls release is the only game in town for markets today, with little else to distract from it. US-Iran developments remain uncertain, awaiting the Strait of Hormuz arrangement between Iran and Oman. Meanwhile, the returning pressure on tech shares will also be under the microscope with investors hoping to get some directional conviction

Comments from Barkin: Job data was very consistent wit ha sector in weak balance Job data is more low hire, low fire The jobs data doesn’t feel very good but it is where it is Corporate earnings are quite strong and growing nicely Is watching corporate earnings for linkage to job market This is the

The scale of the miss, a 6.4% month-on-month drop against an expected 3.1% decline, weakens the case for a September Bank of Japan hike by casting doubt on the strength of domestic demand even as real wages continue to rise. Yen sentiment is likely to soften near term if markets read this as pushing the

Traders cite intervention to support the the Indian rupee Beijing’s export engine holds up on AI demand despite fresh US tariffs – July exports beat forecasts Asian stocks slide as Middle East jitters hit Korea, AI names weigh on Nikkei China July Exports jump higher again in July Crypto news – US Senate pushes CLARITY

Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed president, speaks soon. He has recently turned more hawkish, now favouring earlier, gradual rate hikes over “later, larger, abrupt” moves, citing eroding inflation credibility after the Treasury selloff. He told the FT he’d preferred a 25bp hike at July’s meeting, where the Fed held rates 9-3. Yesterday: Fed’s Daly supported

Prior month +18.2K Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.5% expected Prior 6.5% Full-time employment +38.6K vs +0.6K prior Part-time employment +36.6K vs +17.5K prior Participation rate 65.1% vs 65.0% prior Average hourly wages y/y 3.0% vs 3.7% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

A strong GPIF quarter would reinforce the case for leaving its benchmark portfolio untouched, reducing the near-term probability of a formal reallocation that could otherwise ripple through Japanese government bonds, yen assets and global equities given the fund’s $1.8 trillion size. Officials favouring greater flexibility within existing five to six percentage point ranges, rather than

FundingPips has started a series of trader focused updates and products introduced throughout July, continuing its efforts to simplify the trading experience and expand opportunities for traders within its ecosystem that has always been recognized as user -centric. The updates follow a series of product developments focused on reducing trading restrictions while introducing new opportunities

The PBOC’s build-up of gold inventories in Hong Kong adds a fresh layer to the central bank buying trend that has underpinned prices through 2026, alongside the reported shift of reserves out of London and back closer to home. That official sector demand continues to offset the heavier ETF redemptions seen in Western markets earlier

Just a data post … pretty weak data too! I’ll have more to come on this separately  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The expiries here don’t tie much to any technical significance, so it may not have all too much of an impact. That especially with the currency pair trapped

China gold reserves at the end of July 2026: 76.08 million troy ounces In June 2026: 75.44 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of July 2026: $306.35 billion In June 2026: $303.72 billion I don’t think the streak extending is much of a surprise. Central bank buying in gold may have

A unanimous hold call from economists leaves little room for surprise around Tuesday’s decision, meaning the statement’s language on the inflation and hiking bias is likely to matter more for the Australian dollar than the rate itself. Any softening in the RBA’s tone would weigh on the currency given how fully a hold is already

A rate hike is not completely up to Warsh He’s got a board that’ very political It’s up to the board I think Warsh is great, I won’t criticize him Speaking in an interview with Punchbowl News, Trump said a potential rate hike is “not completely up to Warsh” adding that the Fed chair “has

The prospect that a coordinated Iraqi militia and Houthi strike could be timed specifically to derail Saudi-Iran de-escalation talks adds a new layer of risk premium to crude, since a collapse in diplomacy would remove the main pathway to de-escalation traders have been pricing in. Any hit to energy infrastructure, ports or airports would tighten

The situation on the Strait of Hormuz agreement remains in limbo, with the shipping lanes reportedly believed to have been agreed in principle between Iran and Oman. However, the final text of the agreement is yet to be approved and it remains to be seen how and when the arrangement can begin. For the time

Treasury yields moved sharply higher on Thursday, with the two-year note rising more than 7 basis points and the benchmark 10-year yield climbing nearly 6 basis points to 4.67%. The move was fueled by another round of solid U.S. economic data, including better-than-expected initial jobless claims that reinforced the view the labor market remains resilient.

Continued RBI dollar selling signals the central bank retains a clear line in the sand around current levels and is willing to draw on its substantial reserves to defend it, which should limit further near-term downside in the rupee barring a fresh shock. The intervention comes alongside a more favourable backdrop of softer oil prices

Musalem’s warning that conditions are fertile for inflation expectations to become unanchored, paired with his description of financial conditions as very accommodative and asset prices as elevated, signals discomfort with how loosely markets are currently pricing risk relative to his own hawkish reading of inflation. His comment that the Fed can be driven by its

Confirmation that Japan’s largest single-day intervention on record occurred during thin Golden Week liquidity underscores how aggressively authorities were willing to act to defend the yen, yet the currency’s subsequent slide to 40-year lows below 163 in July shows intervention alone could not reverse the broader downtrend. With Tokyo now intervening again in coordination with

The scale of the reconstitution, potentially affecting more than 600 names, creates a multi-year overhang for Japanese small-cap equities as the market works out which companies will be phased out from October and which retain enough free-float market cap to survive. Names near the bottom 3% threshold are likely to see reduced liquidity and persistent

The postponement removes near term regulatory clarity for digital asset markets, extending the uncertainty firms have cited as a constraint on custody and product planning since the bill cleared committee in May. A September vote pushes the decision into a session already crowded with appropriations fights ahead of the November midterms, reducing the available floor

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Thursday as investors took a more cautious stance following another round of earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the declines, falling nearly 1%, while the S&P 500 slipped modestly and the Nasdaq Composite held up relatively well despite weakness in several technology names. The market continues to reward

Daly’s full endorsement of the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, combined with her cautious but data dependent framing ahead of September, suggests markets should not read her earlier comments on fading tariff effects and a potential Middle East resolution as signalling imminent easing. Her explicit warning that the Fed would act aggressively if inflation

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The S&P 500 has finally broken out of the range and extended the gains into new record highs following positive US-Iran developments. In fact, the market opened with a positive gap on Monday after Trump called off the planned weekend strikes on Iran. On Tuesday, Qatari mediators said that the language for

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +80K (range +10K to +140K) June +57% Private consensus estimate +78K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior Participation rate consensus 61.5% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.5% y/y vs +3.5% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior Avg weekly hours

Fars is reporting Iran is reportedly drafting a strategic plan that would restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels linked to the United States, Israel, and other countries it considers hostile. Under the proposal: U.S., Israeli, and other designated “hostile” vessels would be prohibited from transiting the Strait. Ships connected to Israel, whether

Trump is just out with a message: The Fake News, as usual, is spreading false and completely unfounded rumors. I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing. Everything has been extraordinary, including our attack on Venezuela, where the result was accomplished in less than one day, allowing us to bring one

European equity markets ended the session mostly in positive territory, shrugging off another move higher in sovereign bond yields. Italy and Spain once again led the advance, while the UK’s FTSE 100 was the lone major index to close lower. As London and European traders head for the exits, U.S. stocks are under pressure, Treasury

Prior was +0.3% Sales -3.0% vs +2.2% expected Prior sales 3.4% (revised to 3.5%) That’s a disappointing read on sales but this report isn’t a market mover. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines: Gold sees early gains ease but buyers stay in a good spot in second half of the week Equities take a step back as investors can’t shake off AI spending concerns S&P 500 soars to record highs as geopolitical risks ease; focus shifts to US CPI data The dollar’s next move hinges on inflation,

Prior week initial jobless claims 197K revised to 198K Initial jobless claims 199K vs 202K estimate 4-week MA of initial jobless claims 198.75K vs 203.25K last week.  Prior week continuing claims 1.782M revised to 1.777M Continuing claims 1.801M vs 1.790M estimate 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.791M vs 1.796M  Some facts: Initial jobless claims remain

On Tuesday, in my USDCHF post, I wrote: “For sellers to strengthen their grip, they need to push below the swing support between 0.8060 and 0.8070, and then break the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the late-May low to last week’s high at 0.80491.” In trading today, the pair tested that 0.8060–0.8070 support zone

In case you missed it, from earlier: BofA cuts USD/JPY year-end forecast to 149 after intervention This adds to their previous quick take that the joint action by the US and Japan has removed the “ultimate constraint” on intervention. Given the situation, they have revised down their USD/JPY forecast for Q3 2026 to 153 (previously 154) and

Gold has once again entered the spotlight in trading this week, following its break higher in trading yesterday. Since the end of June, we’ve been seeing price action trend around in between $4,000 and $4,200 for the most part. But after some strong early buying yesterday, there was enough follow through to see price break

Any deal perceived to hand Iran meaningful control over shipping through the strait would likely be read by oil markets as a mixed signal, easing immediate war risk while introducing a new and less familiar risk around fees and access terms for tankers moving through the waterway. Reports that regional sources are pushing back on

July construction PMI 44.7 vs 40.0 expected Prior 38.4 The downturn in the UK construction sector eased in July as all three main categories recorded a slower drop in business activity. Meanwhile, new orders fell by the least marked extent since September 2025. So, there are some positives to start the third quarter even if overall

June industrial orders +3.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected Prior +1.9%; revised to +0.3% The bump higher in June comes after a big downwards revision to the May figure, with the German stats office noting that as being due to “an amended adjustment for price changes”. So, there’s that to take into consideration. But a similar

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Silver has rallied steadily in the past couple of days as the expectations for a US-Iran deal grew stronger. In fact, on Tuesday, Qatari mediators said that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted and US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an Iran deal could have come as soon

The USD is mostly higher with the one exception vs the CAD (the USD is lower by -0.07%). The biggest mover is the USDCHF (USD up 0.33%). The AUDUSD has a 0.28% move (lower AUDUSD/higher USD).  In the video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY

The USDCAD has been trading within well-defined ranges since peaking at the end of June. The first “box” was established between 1.41297 and 1.4243. On July 14, the pair broke below that range and has since been confined to a second box between 1.3990 and 1.41297. Price action inside both ranges has been relatively orderly,

July construction PMI 42.1 Prior 44.8 The construction downturn in Germany deepens in July, with firms recording further declines in total activity and new orders. The only bright spot was a renewed expansion in civil engineering activity. Price pressures and delivery delays also eased in July but it’s too early to say with much confidence how that

Fitch’s assessment suggests the recent Korean equity volatility is unlikely to trigger broader financial instability, which could ease investor concern over contagion risk to the wider financial sector. Securities firms remain the most exposed segment, though strong 1H26 profitability and healthy retained earnings should provide a buffer against further market weakness. Banks and insurers appear

The Canadian dollar is the top-performing G10 currency today as it plays catch-up to the positive momentum in risk assets this week. USD/CAD is down 56 pips on the day to 1.4005. The drop brings some notable levels into play, starting with the big figure. Below that are a pair of recent lows at 1.3990

More re Fed’s Daly – supported decision to hold rates steady at July FOMC meeting Asian tech stocks tumble as AI spending fears hit Nikkei, KOSPI Australian June trade surplus AU$1.929bn (deficit 1.1bn expected) Fitch says Korea equity volatility poses limited near-term credit risk Trump holds frequent informal calls with Fed chair Warsh, WSJ reports

Prior was 2.3% Productivity +1.4% vs +0.6% expected Prior productivity was +0.8% This isn’t really a useful report because productivity is so hard to measure and it’s often revised many times. In theory, unit labor costs are a critical inflation number but it’s rarely a market mover because measuring it is so variable quarter-to-quarter. The

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. PBOC injects 1bn yuan in 7-day reverse repo open marekt operations, rate remains unchanged at 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday after a couple of headlines pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal. The weakness started when Qatari mediators reported that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted. The momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an

July layoffs 33,429 Prior 45,849 US-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in July, which marks a 27% decline compared to the 45,849 layoffs announced in May. The July figure is also the lowest monthly total in two years, while also reflecting a marked drop of 46% compared to July last year (62,075 layoffs). It is the fifth

A trader may visit a broker’s website to open an account, but the relationship does not end at registration. The same user may return to review market information, manage funding, calculate a position size, or ask for help. When these steps feel disconnected, simple tasks can become unnecessarily complicated. RaiseFX’s new website has been designed

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday after a couple of headlines pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal. The weakness started when Qatari mediators reported that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted. The momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an

There are a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 and 1.1565 levels. The expiries here sit close by to the 100-day moving average of 1.1568, so the ones at 1.1565 especially will act as an additional layer for

Italy’s industrial sector lost momentum in June, with production declining on a monthly basis after posting modest gains during the second quarter. Italy’s seasonally adjusted industrial production index fell by 1.0% in June compared with May, reversing part of the strength seen earlier in the quarter. Despite the monthly decline, industrial activity remained positive over the

June retail sales -0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.4% June retail sales +0.7% vs +1.0% y/y expected Prior +1.6%; revised to +1.9% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Cook’s remarks add to a building chorus of Fed officials flagging openness to tightening, a shift traders will read as hawkish after last week’s split decision to hold rates steady. With three dissenting votes already on record favouring a hike, markets may start pricing higher odds of a rate increase at the next meeting, particularly

The tug of war between de-escalation hopes in the Strait of Hormuz and a surprise build in US crude stocks looks set to keep oil choppy and directionless in the near term. Any confirmed announcement on an Iran-Oman arrangement, particularly one involving a US-Iran return to talks, would likely trigger a sharper downside move given

The sharp declines in SoftBank, Tokyo Electron and Advantest alongside a steep drop in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix point to renewed investor anxiety over the sustainability of massive AI related capital spending, following overnight weakness in US listed chipmakers. The relatively modest fall in Japan’s broader Topix compared with the tech heavy Nikkei suggests

Prop trading has a new way to keep score. For the first time, traders can qualify based on the pips they earn rather than the dollars they generate. The shift comes from Pipcy, a prop trading firm with traders in 47 countries, whose Pips Mastery Challenge has opened a new category of trader evaluation. On

Daly’s comments add a somewhat more balanced tone to recent Fed commentary, acknowledging tariff driven price pressures while also flagging early signs those effects are fading, a nuance that could support market expectations for the Fed to stay patient rather than move toward hikes. Her point that an end to the Middle East conflict would

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within

PIMCO’s analysis pushes back against the idea that recent core PCE strength should trigger a more hawkish Fed response, which if it gains traction among investors could support rate cut expectations and pressure front end yields lower relative to a scenario where markets take the headline core PCE print at face value. The firm’s argument

Any acceleration of BOJ ETF sales beyond the current pace of around 330 billion yen annually could introduce fresh supply pressure on Japanese equities, particularly if markets interpret faster unwinding as a signal the central bank is willing to move away from its cautious, market friendly approach. Given the BOJ’s stated preference to avoid disrupting

Just the data this post: Balance of Trade  1.929bn AUD expected 1.1bn, prior -2.367bn Imports -0.2% m/m prior +2.6% Exports +9.6% m/m prior -6.9% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fitch’s view adds a note of caution to the growing consensus that yen strength is largely a function of narrowing US Japan rate differentials, suggesting markets may be overestimating how much further appreciation is achievable without concrete BOJ action. If Fitch is right that yen weakness has not been primarily driven by relative monetary policy

What a strange time we live in. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent obviously leaked this picture last week ahead of yen intervention, then actually followed through late in the day. I don’t know what the point of leaking it was but the market isn’t exactly sure what to do next. There has to be a plan

The pattern of frequent informal contact between Trump and Warsh, if perceived as extending into monetary policy discussions, could raise market concern over Fed independence, a dynamic that historically tends to unsettle bond markets and weigh on confidence in the credibility of future rate decisions. While sources maintain interest rates have not been discussed since

The report is light on detail but so far does not seem too damaging.  Earlier: Explainer: what a Hormuz deal giving Iran shipping control would mean Oil recap – Oil prices mixed as Hormuz reopening hopes offset surprise US crude build This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Cook is speaking imminenetly, stay tuned! Not much else on the data agenda likely to move markets too much.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The story of the day in US stock markets was a modestly positive open followed by steady selling until the European close and a flatline until the final minutes when it fell an additional 0.3 percentage points. A main loser on the day was Google, which fell more than 4% and was a big reason

The main event after the close is storage, with Sandisk and Western Digital reporting at a crucial point for the AI trade. Both stocks have been among the market’s biggest winners this year (SNDK is #1 up +400% YTD), driven by shortages, rising prices and explosive data-centre demand. They have also pulled back sharply from

Scotiabank’s Portfolio Strategy team released its August Monthly Chart Book and there are some notable things worth highlighting. Start with earnings, because they’re the reason the market has done so well. Q2 so far has been strong with a 13% aggregate beat with 85% of companies topping estimates and a median beat of 5.9%. Top-line

Prelim was 53.6 Prior was 51.2 Composite index 54.5 vs 53.6 prelim Prior composite index 51.9 The ISM services report is due at the top of the hour and expected at 54.5 vs 54.0 previously. This is a sign of upside risks, which would be a US dollar tailwind and could weigh on stocks. Eyes

July services PMI 58.3 vs 54.9 expected Prior 54.2 July composite PMI 56.5 Prior 53.3 That’s quite the beat with Spain services activity growing strongly in July, with the headline estimate being the highest since March 2023. Market demand was widely reported to have improved while price pressures did show further signs of easing for the

The EURUSD bias remains tilted to the upside after yesterday’s pullback stalled in the swing area between 1.1498 and 1.1506. Buyers defended that support zone, the price held above the rising 100-hour moving average, and the pair went on to close higher. Today’s advance has extended that momentum, with the EURUSD up 0.22% and trading

McDonald’s Q2 numbers were soft — US comps up just 0.8% — and while management pinned most of the miss on self-inflicted execution problems, the transcript is littered with reminders that the underlying consumer isn’t doing the heavy lifting either. Here are five quotes that tell the story. 1. Industry traffic is going nowhere CFO

It’s been a hot minute since the joint intervention from the US and Japan on the yen currency. And as the dust continues to settle, the jury is still out on what this will all achieve. There’s no denying the symbolic nature of the US stepping in to help Japan in terms of intervention. However,

June PPI -0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expected Prior +0.2% Euro area producer prices came in lower in June, matching estimates with a drop of 0.3% on the month. That being said, there is a big caveat to the figure with it owing mostly to a drop back in energy prices at the time. If you

Follow up – Kiwi dips as jobless rate climbs ahead of RBNZ’s September decision Gold climbs for third day as Hormuz deal hopes ease inflation fears, holds above $4,100 US, Iran and Oman near interim deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz China Rating Dog PMI (July 2026) 50.4 (expected 53.7) More – BOJ minutes show

Most of inflation recently is from supply shocks, with some demand layered on top My goal is not to slow the economy, my goal is to bring down inflation There wasn’t much in that interview to chew on. Kashkari dissented for a hike last week so we know where he stands. This article was written

US stocks finished sharply higher, with all of the major indices posting gains of at least 1.7% as risk appetite remained firmly in control. The rally was led by technology shares, pushing the Nasdaq indices to the top of the leaderboard, while the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials both closed at fresh record highs. Broad

Wall Street looked like it was going to be running into a bit of trouble at the start of earnings season, with Alphabet (Google) setting the tone. A first ever quarter with negative free cash flow amid increased AI capital expenditure did not sit right with investors as worries continued to grow about how hyperscalers

Prior was 54.0 Prices paid 70.3 vs 67.7 prior New orders 57.2 vs 55.1 prior Employment 47.4 vs 51.2 prior Business activity 59.1 vs 55.4 prior The S&P Global final PMI for July was released shortly before this report and was at 54.6 vs 53.6 previously, that was an 8-month high. This report missed but

The softer inflation data at the end of July dampened hopes of a RBA rate hike this month and that dragged AUD/USD down for a bit last week. But with USD/JPY intervention keeping things interesting, the dollar fell across the major currencies space and helped to see a bounce in AUD/USD. That before the breakout

Over the last 15 years, the Japanese yen has steadily weakened, falling from around 76 yen per dollar to a recent low of nearly 164, with the dollar yen exchange rate reflecting the widening monetary policy gap between Japan and the US. One of the main reasons is that for years the Bank of Japan

Prior 50.2 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 50.8 prior Key findings: Italian service sector sees strongest growth in new business of the year so far Accelerated growth in activity and new business Jobs added at quickest rate in over a year Charge inflation picks up, despite cooler cost pressures Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global

Prior 48.6 Final Composite PMI 51.3 vs 51.2 prelim Prior 49.5 Key findings: Service sector moves closer to stabilisation as demand picks up Business activity falls only fractionally in July New business rises for first time in five months, albeit marginally Rates of input cost and output price inflation rebound Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate

Prior was +98K (revised to 95K) Details: Goods -3K versus +2K last month Services +47K versus +96K last month Small business K vs +53K prior Medium businesses K vs +29K last month Large businesses K vs +25K last month Wages: Wages for job stayers 4.4% vs 4.4% last month Wages for job changers 7.0% vs

July final services PMI 51.7 vs 51.6 prelim Prior 49.4 July final composite PMI 52.0 vs 51.9 prelim Prior 50.0 The final estimate here reaffirms a solid rebound in euro area business activity to start the third quarter. That as the services print is a 5-month high with the composite print being a 8-month high.

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US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Uptick in Japan’s inflation was result of weak yen, energy prices As energy prices come down and we no longer have excess yen weakness, that will contribute to inflation coming down and Japan, yen can go into a virtuous cycle I am sure BOJ Governor Ueda will do what is best

There was an all-day negotiation on Tuesday The negotiations were good Will hit Iran really hard if there is no deal It’s very on the surface stuff but you get the point. As mentioned previously, we’ve seen all this before. It all starts with Trump pausing attacks out of “goodwill”, before claiming that a deal

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   Gold has finally found some footing after a couple of headlines yesterday pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal. The initial boost came from Qatari mediators saying that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted. Momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an Iran deal could come

The scale of the drop, roughly 5% across both benchmarks, points to a meaningful unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that has been embedded in crude since the conflict began, rather than a shift driven by fundamentals such as supply or demand. Prices reversed course intraday, initially gaining on reports that Iran wants greater control

The move is symbolically significant given how long the Bank of Korea has stayed on the sidelines, but the scale involved is modest against the backdrop of broader central bank buying, which reached its strongest second quarter on record at 289 tonnes globally. Korea’s domestic output leaves only a small slice, around 4 to 5

Iran continues to try and play hardball but I can imagine this agreement still going through even if there will be a few hiccups along the way. Initial reports suggested Wednesday as the target date to announce the “reopening”, allowing for nuclear/uranium talks to take place after. But based on the latest headline above, perhaps

July final services PMI 49.6 vs 49.8 prelim Prior 46.8 July final composite PMI 49.4 vs 49.6 prelim Prior 47.2 After a struggling second quarter, the start of the third quarter is at least seen looking better for the French economy. New business volumes rose for the first time since November last year, with greater

S&P 500 futures near 7,800: Is the party about to end at the top of the channel? S&P 500 E-mini futures have surged toward 7,800, placing price near the upper boundary of the rising channel on the 4-hour chart. The trend remains bullish, but the combination of a major round number, channel resistance and an

The jobless rate hitting its highest level since late 2015 keeps the case for RBNZ tightening intact but reinforces the view that any further hikes are likely to come at a gradual pace rather than an aggressive one, given how little wage pressure is coming from an increasingly slack labour market. The rise in the

Prior 48.8 Final Composite PMI 52.2 vs 52.1 prelim Prior 49.3 Key findings: Business activity rises for first time in three months Marginal rebound in new orders Slowest increase in input costs since February Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK service providers moved back into growth mode during July

The remark adds a political dimension to a story that has so far been driven mainly by operational details around the Strait of Hormuz reopening. If accurate, it reinforces the market’s working assumption that Washington is pushing hard for a resolution, which aligns with the direction traders have been pricing since Bessent’s and Rubio’s comments

We are neither dovish nor hawkish It’s out endeavor to bring inflation in line with target over the medium term Quite possible going forward that as tensions de-escalate that Rupee may strengthen Monetary policy transmission is more or less complete The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today, with

The revelation that some board members were already pushing for a faster pace of hikes toward the neutral rate, even as the board delivered the June increase, suggests the reaction function has shifted more hawkish than the 7-1 vote alone implies, since not all seven supporting votes necessarily agreed on the pace being sufficient. The

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The expiries don’t tie much to any technical significance but they rest just below the 100-hour moving average of 1.1512 for now. The currency pair has been keeping above the

The specificity of this reported deal, with a defined lane structure, a 60-day tenure and a firm target of a Wednesday announcement, represents a meaningfully more advanced stage than the operational-detail reporting seen earlier this week, and could accelerate the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium in oil that has already been under pressure. The

The jobs report from New Zealand and China’s private survey services PMI are the headlines for data on the session ahead.  NZ unemployment is expected to reach a near 11 year high, Middle East fighting weighing on the economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The renewed rise in new orders, the first in five months, alongside the composite index’s jump to its fastest expansion pace since January, points to a domestic recovery gaining genuine traction rather than a one-off bounce. That said, the reacceleration in output price inflation, even as input cost growth eased to a five-month low, suggests