Trump joked about the “Strait of Trump” as the Iran war enters month two, with Hormuz disruptions persisting. Mixed signals on talks continue, while US stocks fell for a fifth week and NATO commitment concerns resurfaced. Summary Trump joked about the “Strait of Trump,” underscoring its central role in the Iran war and global oil

Iran expected to deliver counter-proposal to the US today – report Trump signals to allies no immediate plans for Iran invasion Houthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support Iran Secretary of State Rubio said that the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeks UMich final March consumer sentiment 53.3 vs

This day just keeps getting worse. At the start of trading Monday it looked like Trump was on track to get some kind of ceasefire by now. Instead, we have talk of bombing steel plants and now this. The Houthis in Yemen say they will enter the conflict on the side of Iran. The possible

The major US stock indices are closing lower for the day and lower for the week. The decline this week is the 5th consecutive weekly decline. The S&P decline is the worst string in 4 years. A look at the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average-793.78 or -1.73% at 45166.33. S&P index fell -108.49 or

I don’t know how much anyone believes any of this. On the dawn of this war, Trump was saying they were planning for negotiations and Marco Rubio was going to the Middle East. That this news was also leaked suggests that it was deliberately leaked. There has been a kneejerk lower in oil on this

Baker Hughes: Total rig count 543 versus 552 last week Oil rigs 409 versus 414 last week Nat Gas 127 versus 131 last week. Despite the higher prices, rigs decline in the current week. Go figure. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japan flags FX intervention risk as oil-driven volatility pressures yen Summary: Japan signals readiness to stabilise funding conditions for businesses Authorities link FX volatility to oil-driven speculative moves G7 finance ministers to hold online meeting on market conditions Japan warns it will take “decisive steps” in FX if needed Officials monitoring markets with heightened vigilance

Cyclone Narelle disrupts 8% of global LNG supply from Australia India cuts fuel duties, increases export tax as oil volatility rises China industrial profits jump 15.2% as war risks threaten outlook RBI to hold rates at 5.25% through 2027 as oil risks cloud outlook New Zealand unveils fuel contingency plan amid rising Hormuz risks CNN:

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is slowly erasing the gains as traders are getting increasingly worried of the risk of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning the markets throughout the entire week with ceasefire comments and claims that Iran has been “begging” him for a deal. Meanwhile, the US military buildup in the Middle

The NASDAQ and S&P indices continue to press lower, with both now breaking below last Friday’s lows — a shift that tilts the bias more firmly to the downside. For the S&P index, the break below 6477.16 is a key technical development. Staying below that level keeps sellers in control and opens the door for

Nvidia stock is trading at six-month lows after a 1.6% decline today. The chart is problematic as it bottomed near $170 three times since November but it’s now broken that support and trading at the worst levels since September. The chipmaker is now testing the September lows, which stretch down to $164. Should that break,

Prelim was 55.5 Prior was 56.6 Conditions 55.8 vs 57.8 prelim Expectations 51.7 vs 54.1 prelim 1-year inflation 3.8% vs 3.4% prelim (prior was 3.4%) 5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.3%) The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers is one of the most closely watched gauges of US household confidence. Based on

The USDJPY has pushed decisively above the 160.00 level, extending to a high of 160.29. In doing so, the pair briefly moved above a key swing area from 2024 near 160.25, but the break lacked follow-through, with the move only clearing that zone by a handful of pips before stalling. That hesitation at a prior

ECB’s Schnabel is speaking and says: We are facing a massive energy price shock. There is no need to rush into action. We have time to analyze the data. ECB should not be rushed to raise rates. This has a stagflation-lite feel—the energy shock keeps inflation risks alive, but the wait-and-see stance tells you the

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks after G7 meeting of foreign ministers: We had a really good meeting at G7 we expect the Iran operation to conclude at the appropriate time, we are talking weeks not months. Iran may decide to set up a tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz. There are no

Impact of Iran war comes as inflation has been high. There is more risk of faster shift from oil prices into inflation expectations. Risk that series of supply shocks drive up inflation. Economy is not creating a lot of jobs right now. Bending but not breaking is still how to view jobs market. To me

Prudent to hold interest rates steady and await more clarity on what the Fed should do next Pace and uncertainty of changes around AI have made a lot of Fed officials ‘uneasy’ War, fast changes due to artificial intelligence have again clouded economic outlook Even before oil shock, progress on inflation was at risk of

The AUDUSD moved below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 yesterday, shifting the bias more to the downside. That break gave sellers more control and opened the door for further downside probing. In the early Asian session, the pair extended lower to 0.68707, but buyers stepped in, triggering a snapback rally. That rebound

Wall Street Journal (gated): Iran denies requesting strike pause, highlighting fragile diplomacy and low odds of a near-term ceasefire. Summary: Iran has not requested pause on energy-site strikes, mediators say Contradicts Trump’s claim pause was made at Iran’s request Tehran signals openness to talks but no final leadership approval yet U.S. 15-point plan seen as

From Jennifer Jacobs at CBS News: The Iranian response to the U.S. peace proposal is expected later today, sources familiar with the matter told Marg Brennan and me. President Trump and top White House officials have been told that Iran’s counter-proposal would likely arrive Friday via interlocutors. It will be interesting to see if this

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump has given Iran another 10 days: “Pausing … to Monday April 6” Trump: Very substantial talks are going on with Iran Senior Iran official: No plan for talks appears realistic at this stage WSJ. Iran wants US to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks Mexico central bank lowers benchmark interest rate

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There is a large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level but it is not likely to factor much into play. That as the dollar is just losing minor ground after the gains from overnight trading. And

Yesterday, the US and Israel assassinated the leader of Iran’s navy and there are increasing signs that Iran is now taking a harder line on Hormuz. The WSJ reports that two container vessels belonging to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping were turned back from crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning. The IRGC also appeared

Iran offers conditional Hormuz access to Spain-linked vessels, signalling selective easing, though global energy flows remain constrained. Summary: Iran signals openness to Spain-linked Hormuz transit requests “Non-hostile vessels” allowed passage with coordination, per prior UN note First explicit concession toward an EU state amid ongoing conflict Limited practical impact given Spain’s small tanker presence in

Philadelphia Pres Ann Paulson is on the wires saying Fed has made notable progress bringing inflation down Iran war creates risks for both growth and inflation Inflation levels still too high; expectations remain “fragile” No evidence the labor market is currently driving inflation Above-target inflation tied to AI-driven growth would complicate Fed response R-star estimate

Technology takes a hit, energy and consumer staples show strength The US stock market today presented a dynamic landscape, characterized by significant shifts across various sectors. Notably, the technology sector faced headwinds, while energy and consumer staples showed resilience in the turbulent market conditions. 📉 Technology Sector: Facing Challenges Today’s market heatmap reveals widespread declines

Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0% Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +4.5%; revised to +4.8% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expected Prior +2.0%; revised to +2.2% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.4% vs +2.9% y/y expected Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.9% More to come.. This article was written by

Headlines: Oil prices extend into new highs amid weekend risk hedging as Trump’s jawboning fails The can being kicked down the road is not a good thing for markets IRGC warns that Strait of Hormuz remains “closed”, prohibits any passage by US allies How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? ECB’s Muller:

Iran-linked hackers publicly claimed to have breached the personal inbox of FBI Director Kash Patel. They published photographs of him and his purported resume. Reuters confirmed via a Justice Dept official that his emails were compromised but the FBI didn’t immediately comment. Another notable Reuters report today is an exclusive that says the US can

The USDCAD has pushed to a new high for the week—and its highest level since January 20—in early North American trading. In doing so, the price has broken above a key swing area on the daily chart at 1.3860. That level was a clear bias-defining resistance, and the break tilts control more firmly in favor

ECB might not need to wait for fully visible second round effects before increasing rates Once energy prices have remained elevated for several weeks, one can already be reasonably confident that second round effects are likely I would not be surprised if by the next policy meeting, elevated energy prices were already showing up more

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq has been slowly erasing Monday’s gains as traders have been getting increasingly worried of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning the markets throughout the entire week with ceasefire comments and claims that Iran has been “begging” him for a deal. Meanwhile, the US military buildup in the Middle

Fed’s Cook flags a clear shift toward inflation risk, driven by tariffs and the Iran war, with markets now dialing back expectations for rate cuts. Summary: Fed’s Cook signals shift toward inflation risk amid Iran war shock Energy-driven inflation pressures seen pushing Fed further from 2% target Prior disinflation progress already derailed by tariffs, now

RBI seen on hold through 2027 as oil risks skew inflation outlook higher Summary: Reuters poll: 69 of 71 economists expect RBI to hold at 5.25% on April 8 Majority see rates unchanged until at least mid-2027 Inflation below 4% target gives RBI policy flexibility Middle East conflict raises oil-driven inflation risks RBI expected to

Oil prices are again rising into triple digit levels due to the lack of any breakthrough in the US-Iran “negotiations” and the increasing risk of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning prices throughout the entire week with ceasefire comments and claims that Iran has been “begging” him for a deal. Meanwhile, the

CNN analysis warns U.S. escalation in Iran risks casualties and uncertain outcomes. Summary: CNN frames U.S. options in Iran as high-risk with uncertain success Pentagon exploring troop deployments and seizure of key assets Trump balancing diplomacy pause with military build-up Iran retains leverage via Strait of Hormuz disruption Ground operations seen as likely to trigger

The major US stock indices fell sharply today with the NASDAQ leading the way with a decline of -2.38%. Chips stocks were hit hard. Meta was also sharply lower with a decline of -7.92%. Nvidia fell -4.16%, Broadcom fell -2.95%, Micron fell -6.97%, Intel fell -6.53%, AMD fell -7.96%. The Nasdaq index is now down

S&P 500 futures were up by around 0.7% earlier in the day on hopes of “peace” as US president Trump extended the cooling period on strikes against Iranian energy facilities for another 10 days. That as he touts “very substantial talks” happening in the background. All that being said, this is all mere noise. As

New Zealand prepares fuel contingency plan as Hormuz risks threaten supply Summary: New Zealand introduces four-phase fuel contingency framework Currently in monitoring phase with no immediate restrictions Government flags Hormuz disruption as key risk scenario Fuel stocks provide ~46–53 days of coverage including shipments Later phases could prioritise fuel for critical sectors Temporary rule change

Long time no see, Mr. Kuroda. He spokes to the Asahi newspaper in an interview and shared some of his thoughts on BOJ policy setting at the moment. The BOJ would raise the policy rate in April if you think about it normally The US-Iran war would only serve to accelerate interest rate hikes It

Trump delays Iran energy strikes by 10 days, shifting markets to a deadline-driven risk event. Summary: Trump pauses planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days New deadline set for April 6, 8pm ET — now a key market catalyst Ongoing talks described as “going very well” Signals temporary de-escalation, not resolution Oil risk

U.S. balances troop build-up with diplomacy window as Iran tensions keep energy and inflation risks elevated Summary: Pentagon weighs deploying up to 10,000 additional U.S. troops to Middle East Trump pauses Iran energy strikes for 10 days to allow negotiations Conflicting accounts on whether Iran requested extension Iran allows limited tanker passage through Hormuz as

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is out delivering a warning to all ships thinking about passing through the Strait of Hormuz amid the latest “cooling period” with the US. They are maintaining that the strait remains in de facto closure for now, adding that “any transit through the waterway will face harsh measures”. And

Cyclone Narelle knocks out key Australian LNG supply, tightening global market Summary: Cyclone Narelle disrupts LNG output in Western Australia Chevron halts production at Gorgon and Wheatstone plants Woodside’s North West Shelf impacted via supply disruptions Affected facilities account for ~8% of global LNG supply Offshore platforms also knocked offline by severe weather Adds to

I would not rush into any decision, prefer to be more cautious Still need to assess whether this ​should be looked through or whether we should be making a rate decision We don’t have sufficient information to make a decision for now I think we are still along the baseline We haven’t seen anything that

India cuts fuel duties to ease inflation while taxing export windfalls Summary: India cuts diesel excise duty to zero from 10 rupees/litre Petrol duty reduced to 3 rupees/litre from 13 rupees Windfall tax on diesel exports set at 21.5 rupees/litre Move aimed at easing domestic fuel costs and inflation Export taxes maintained to protect supply

Using latest data, the estimate of the natural rate of interest is around -0.9% to +0.5% That estimate is as of Q3 2025 BOJ latest estimation is based on six models, including time-series and structural models Although the range itself has not changed significantly, a closer look reveals that many of the estimates have recently

Prior +2.3% HICP +3.3% vs +3.9% y/y expected Prior +2.5% This is the first indication that higher energy prices are starting to see an impact. The monthly inflation estimate shows a 1.0% increase, which is the highest since February 2023. That is leading to headline annual inflation in Spain rising to 3.3%, which is the

Cook, Miran, Jefferson, Logan and Barr are jostling for speaking slots! Cook has already spoken, nothing on policy from her. Out of the 4 remaining I’ve most time for Logan. Market expectations of Fed rate cuts have diminished. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand consumer confidence March 2026 91.3 prior 100.1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Profits at China’s industrial firms grew 15.2% in the first two months over the same period last year. accelerated from a 0.6% increase for the whole of last year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mexico central bank lowers benchmark rate to 6.75% from 7.00% Banxico board was not unanimous on the rate decision 3 members voted to cut rates to 6.75% 2 members voted to hold rates at 7.00% Balance of inflation risks remains tilted to the upside Headline inflation expected to converge to target in Q2 2027 Board

China industrial profits surge but rising costs and war risks cloud outlook Summary: China industrial profits jump 15.2% y/y in Jan–Feb vs 0.6% in 2025 Tech and electronics sectors lead gains, boosted by AI demand Margins remain under pressure from rising costs and competition Weak domestic demand reflected in ongoing producer deflation Middle East conflict

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 146.2bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations for the week the PBOC have injected net 231.9bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil remains tightly tied to developments in the Iran conflict. While the Trump administration continues to highlight military successes, the broader strategic picture is less settled. Iran’s leadership has not agreed to the proposed 15-point plan, keeping tensions elevated and leaving uncertainty around what comes next. As long as that uncertainty

Scanning some of the news overnight. Summary: Up to 40% of Gulf refining capacity reportedly damaged, removing ~11mb/d Supply shock expected to persist, with repairs taking months to years Europe scrambles for alternative energy, Italy seeks Algerian gas flows UK and Germany accelerate green transition amid fossil fuel strain ECB signals readiness to act on

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut calls to late 2026, citing inflation risks, tariffs, and energy shocks raising the bar for easing. Initial call is here: Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September, December (from June, September) Adding more now. Summary: Morgan Stanley pushes Fed rate cut timing back to September and December

Trump is speaking with Fox. Repeats that Iran requested he pause on strikes (10 day pause). Iranian officials deny this, “We have not submitted any request regarding potential U.S. attacks.” Whatever, where we are at is paused, regardless. Oil flow remains constipated with Hormuz blocked. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The NASDAQ index is currently down 430 points or -1.96% at 21,500. That takes the price below the low price from last Friday’s trade at 21,522.75. It also takes a price to the lowest level since September 4. The next major target area comes between 20,931 and 21,033 (swing lows from September 2 and August

The results of the $44 billion sale of seven-year notes are out and this one was a bit better with only a 0.3 bps tail after tails of 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps in sales of 2s and 5s earlier in the week. It’s not a pretty one though in the bond market with 2s

Structural economic shifts (trade, immigration, AI) expected to permanently reshape Canada’s economy Bank of Canada faces a difficult task managing structural changes Economy likely to face significant upheaval over next five years with more variable inflation Reduced immigration will limit growth potential and pose economic challenges BoC assessing economy carefully to distinguish cyclical vs structural

The WSJ is reporting: Iran wants the U.S. to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks U.S. proposal seen as excessive, including dismantling nuclear program, limiting missiles, and ending regional support Iran open to talks, but only under more reasonable terms Refuses to negotiate missile program upfront Rejects permanent end to uranium enrichment

Initial jobless claims 210K vs 210K estimate 4 week moving averages of initial jobless claims 210.5K vs 210.75K last week Continuing claims 1.819M vs 1.851M estimate 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.847M vs 1.849M last week. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 14 were in Kentucky (+3,305), Oklahoma (+1,201),

There was a call earlier in the week between Trump and Netanyahu and afterwards, Bibi seeming toned down his rhetoric. The latest from the WSJ picks up on that and says that “Israeli officials have become convinced President Trump could soon try to end the war” citing people familiar. In light of that, Israel has

The risk mood is worsening following Trump’s cabinet meeting. The market may have been looking for better signs that a deal was coming or that the Strait of Hormuz would open soon. Instead, it was the usual talking points that Iran is ‘desperate to make a deal’ but no real signs that’s coming and constant

The AUDUSD is typically a classic risk-on/risk-off barometer, but since the start of the Iran/US–Israel conflict on February 28, price action has been anything but one-directional. The pair has traded to new highs for the year, while also rotating back down to test late-January lows — a sign of heightened uncertainty and two-way volatility. Earlier

Canada added 45,600 payroll employees in January, a solid rebound after December’s 10,600 decline. It contrasts with the more-widely viewed LFS survey, which showed a 25K decline in January followed by an 84K decline in February. On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment was up by 33,500 (+0.2%) in January despite a decline in the population.

Iran gave the US eight boats of oil “They said, to show you the fact that we’re real and solid and we’re there, we’re going to let you have eight boats of oil.” Iran said it would let eight boats of oil go through, suggests they were Pakistani flagged Then the apologized for something and

The market mood is not as bad as it was when we returned from the weekend. However, it is not as hyped up as what it was made out to be when US president Trump claimed “very productive” talks with Iran on Monday. Amid the mixed messages from both sides, we’re pretty much caught somewhere

Headlines: Trump: Iran better get serious soon, before it is too late Oil prices continue to eat into the Monday drop as market optimism dwindles S&P 500 erases most of the Monday’s gains as optimism fades and weekend hedging begins USDJPY approaches the key 160.00 handle as Iran rejects the ceasefire and optimism fades BOJ

Here is a post from Tansim, translated: An informed source told Tasnim News Agency that Iran’s response to the 15-point proposal from the United States was formally delivered last night via intermediaries, and Iran is awaiting the other side’s reply. According to this source, Iran stated in its response that acts of aggression and assassination

The USDCAD continues to push higher, with the pair trading at its strongest level since January 20 as buyers remain firmly in control of the short-term trend. The latest leg higher began late Tuesday from a low at 1.37406, and since then, the price action has followed a textbook bullish progression—breaking key technical levels, consolidating,

The roller coaster ride continues as today we are starting to see some fading optimism in markets. That as there continues to be mixed messages on negotiations and talks of a potential deal between the US and Iran. There’s absolutely no coherence to the communication from both sides and it looks like that is starting

Prior -24.7; revised to -24.8 Not much of a surprise there as German consumer sentiment deteriorated heading into April, largely due to concerns on higher energy prices. That as the Middle East conflict continues to drag on for longer, set to stretch into its fourth week soon. Households look to be bracing for higher prices

Iran spent the entire day sending various messages through the media that it won’t accept a ceasefire deal or negotiate with the US around its 15-point plan. However, we heard from Pakistani sources that they hadn’t officially rejected talks so that’s the next big headline we’re waiting for. Notably, Trump was completely silent on the

Trump on Truth Social earlier today wrote: The Iranian negotiators are very different and “strange.” They are “begging” us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only “looking at our proposal.” WRONG!!! They

For many traders, the first step is often the most important. There is a lot of trading content online, but not all of it helps people learn clearly and usefully. Many traders read posts, watch videos, and follow market chatter without first building a strong foundation. That is why structured learning matters. At investingLive Academy,

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Throughout this war, we’ve heard persistent reports that the US and Israel have different goals in Iran. The main evidence for that was Israeli strikes on oil storage facilities in Tehran. That drew a rebuke from Trump and he said on Truth Social that Israel would no longer be striking Iran’s infrastructure. Now a report

As the winds of war continue to exert its influence on the markets, the USD is trading higher and near highs for the day. The US stocks are lower with the futures implying a decline of -240 points for the Nasdaq and -52 points for the S&P, The US yields are higher with the 10

Iran’s foreign minister has been relaying Iran’s position in the media, alongside parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. US and Israel have temporarily removed 2 senior Iranian officials from their list of officials to eliminate as they explore possible peace talks, These are parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf and FM Abbas Araghchi, who have been removed from the target

Reuters cites an unnamed senior official from Iran following the rejection of the US proposal as a baseline for a ceasefire. Iran’s assessment is that the US proposal is “one-sided and unfair”, serving only US and Israeli interests Iran’s initial response was conveyed via Pakistan is that the proposal lacks the minimum requirements for success

Prior +0.6% GDP +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% This reaffirms the more robust showing in Spain’s economy to wrap up last year. The details show that domestic demand contributed 0.9% to quarterly GDP growth with external demand contributing -0.1%. Overall, the Spanish economy grew by 2.8% in 2025. And while that is not

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It is the same case as yesterday with the expiries not tying to any technical significance. However, it could just place a light ceiling on price action provided that there

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened yesterday after Iran rejected the proposed ceasefire and outlined its own conditions that included closure of all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for the attacks, lifting of all sanctions and allowing Iran to retain its missile program without restrictions. These conditions are of course unacceptable for the

Summary: Dollar rises ~2% since Iran conflict began Gains driven by safe-haven demand, energy dynamics Morgan Stanley warns rally may be a bull trap Markets seen underpricing growth-negative impact Fed expected to cut rates twice this year ECB may hike to counter energy-driven inflation Narrowing rate differentials seen as USD headwind Dollar downside risk if

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened yesterday after Iran rejected the proposed ceasefire and outlined its own conditions that included closure of all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for the attacks, lifting of all sanctions and allowing Iran to retain its missile program without restrictions. These conditions are of course unacceptable for the

US stocks take an optimistic view on the war in Iran The US is basically threatening to kill Ghalibaf and Araghchi if no deal made The present Iran gave Trump was allowing several fuel tankers through Hormuz Do you want to hear the story of gold? I will tell the technical story in this video

The BOJ has announced that it will begin publishing data on the estimated core consumer price inflation (CPI) rate, so as to better capture developments and trends in prices. It says that the data will be published under the “Indicators for Core CPI”, coming with the following measures: CPI that excludes “institutional factors” Trimmed mean

Oil climbs as ceasefire talk clashes with rising US ground-war signals. Earlier: US says two-thirds of Iran’s arms facilities destroyed in ongoing strikes Summary: Oil rising as geopolitical risk premium rebuilds Market volatility driven by conflicting headlines US troop deployments point to possible escalation Kharg Island emerging as key strategic target Handles ~90% of Iran

Key points: Bitcoin has gained roughly 7% since 28 February, outperforming the S&P 500, gold, and the MSCI World Index But Bitcoin entered the war already down 45% from its $126,000 October ATH, meaning most of the damage was done before the first strike The S&P 500 has broken below its 200-DMA for the first

COSCO move signals Hormuz reopening — but not on equal terms. Summary: COSCO resumes container bookings to Middle East Services cover UAE, Saudi Arabia and Gulf region Move signals tentative reopening of Hormuz routes Shipping remains subject to security uncertainty Container flows seen as early risk barometer Reports of selective passage and transit fees Potential

We will have enough data by April to determine if we need to act Or we can decide to wait and see for further developments Every passing day of the conflict contributes to an increase in inflationary risks A rate hike in April is certainly an option, but that is just one option on the

RBA warns energy shock risks unanchoring inflation as conflict clouds outlook Summary: RBA flags Middle East conflict as dual growth-inflation shock Financial conditions already tightening Energy prices pose upside inflation risk Focus on preventing inflation expectations becoming unanchored Risk of more restrictive policy if expectations rise Short-run neutral rates pulled in both directions Longer conflict

Prior 91 At the same time, we also have the business confidence numbers for March as per below: Business confidence 97 vs 96 expected Prior 97 Services confidence 96 Prior 96 Manufacturing confidence 99 Prior 102 French household confidence eased back in March as the proportion of households who consider that prices will accelerate over

Putin banned the export of gold bars weighing over 100 grams from the Russian Federation. As of May 1 2026. There are some exceptions. Adam had the details posted earlier, here: Putin signs order to limit gold exports This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There was something of a puzzling moment yesterday when Trump was asked if he trusts the Iranians who were said to be in talks with US representatives. Trump said he doesn’t trust anybody but alluded to receiving a “gift” that he said suggested “we’re dealing with the right people.” “They gave us a present, and

Markets eye unusual ceasefire signal as Trump may act without formal deal. – ps. Maybe its just me but could this just be some sort of misdirection ahead of an imminent ground invasion? Anyway, on with the post. – Summary: Israeli media suggests Trump may announce ceasefire by Saturday Reports indicate no final agreement may

Energy shock splits policy outlook as ECB eyes hikes while Fed stays on hold Summary: Middle East conflict drives renewed energy-led inflation shock Bond yields rise as markets price potential rate hikes ECB expected to begin tightening as soon as next month Europe more exposed to energy price pressures than US Barclays sees two ECB

The CSPI index from Japan tracks prices charged between firms: stronger-than-expected print would reinforce signs that domestic inflation is becoming more embedded, supporting expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening a softer reading would suggest inflation momentum is easing This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump pushes for fast end to war while escalating pressure on Iran Summary: Trump targeting 4–6 week timeline to end war Conflict seen by US as entering final phase Mid-May Xi meeting assumes war conclusion Iran rejects direct talks with US US continues deploying additional troops Ground operation options remain on table Dual-track strategy: diplomacy

Softer Australian CPI offers little relief as RBA seen hiking amid energy-driven risks. Earlier: Australia February CPI cools slightly, but energy shock clouds inflation outlook Summary: February CPI undershoots expectations slightly Trimmed mean inflation also comes in softer Data suggests inflation cooling marginally pre-shock Labour market still tighter than full employment Inflation seen returning to

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump-Xi summit reset for May as war delay reshapes geopolitical calendar Summary: Trump-Xi summit set for May 14–15 in Beijing Meeting delayed roughly six weeks due to Iran conflict Timing aligns with US estimates of war duration Reciprocal visit to Washington planned later this year Talks expected to cover trade, tech, geopolitics Preparations reportedly in

Fed’s Miran leans dovish, urges support as labour softens and oil shock dismissed Summary: Miran downplays inflation, cites measurement issues Labour market seen weakening over extended period Fed policy may need to provide additional support Oil price surge acknowledged but seen as temporary Central banks should look through energy shocks Dovish stance contrasts with inflation

The USDCAD has been grinding higher, extending the bullish momentum that followed Monday’s volatile price action. Earlier in the week, the pair surged to test the March high at 1.3752, only to find sellers after headlines crossed that Trump was backing off threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. That shift in tone triggered a sharp

Iran US-Israel War news : CNN is reporting that the Trump administration officials are working to organize a potential meeting this weekend—likely in Pakistan, though Turkey is also being considered—to explore a diplomatic off-ramp to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Vice President JD Vance is expected to attend, possibly alongside other senior officials, though details

CPI for February slightly lower than expected both headline and underlying (core). Australian shares have added to gains. March, of course, has brought fuel price surges. We’ll get that news in a month. I’m seeing the figures being greeted with joy. Dial it back folks, the target band the RBA shoots for is 2-3%. I’ll

Iran is threatening to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if there is a ground attack on Iran. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in Africa, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. At its narrowest point, the strait is about 26 to 30

I don’t love reporting on rumors that are doing the rounds because most of it is garbage but at the same time, I like to know what the rumors are. There’s also a war going on and the state of journalism is lamentable, so it’s a constant stream of staged ‘leaks’ and ‘sources’ reports that

If this event had been held a few weeks ago, my speech would have been very different But we find ourselves yet again in a different world We are facing profound uncertainty about the path of the economy None of us can resolve the uncertainty about how the war in Iran will play out Our

US stocks are higher, yields are back down after moving higher yesterday, and oil prices are lower. The USD meanwhile is confined in trading and little changed awaiting the next shove. Overnight, Iran said that they would allow “non-hostile” ships through the Strait of Hormuz” which is leading the the reversal in stocks and yields

High yield 3.980% Wi level at the time of the auction 3.966% Tail +1.4 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.29X versus 6 month average of 2.36X Directs (domestic buyers) 22.48% versus 6 month average of 27.5% Indirects (international buyers) 61.9% versus 6 month average of 61.7% Dealers

It’s a testing moment for markets as we await the outcome of talks between the US and Iran. Trump’s message on Monday was a bit out of the blue but the playbook looks to be one that we have seen before. It is a very similar one to how he went about on the trade/tariffs

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar remains under pressure amid optimistic expectations for an end to the US-Iran war. The catalyst for these expectations was Trump’s announcement on Truth Social on Monday of a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. The greenback hasn’t yet fallen

The USDCHF continues to trade in a choppy, back-and-forth range as the market digests a steady flow of shifting headlines. While the volatility spike from last Friday has begun to settle, the price action remains directionless, with alternating pushes higher and lower. Technically, the pair is coiling. The presence of lower highs and higher lows

Headlines: Trump successfully capped the upside in oil, raising market hopes for an end to the war Oil holds near the lows for the week though the drums of war continue to beat US futures push higher so far today, technical breakdown on hold for now Gold recovers some ground as hopes for the end

Highest since March of 2022 Prices for nonfuel imports rose 1.1% in February Prior was +0.2% Export prices +1.5% vs +0.5% expected Prior export prices +0.6% This is before the war. I’m starting to get the feeling we’re about to have a big inflation problem as it was broad based. Higher prices for imports were

Australia’s February CPI showed modest cooling, but inflation remains above target and the data predates a sharp energy-driven inflation shock, leaving risks tilted to the upside. Summary: Australia February CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% y/y (vs 3.8% prior/exp). Monthly CPI flat at 0.0% m/m, down from 0.4%. Trimmed mean came in soft m/m at 0.2%

There have been no talks between the US and Iran, either directly or indirectly Friendly countries like Pakistan are seeking to lay the groundwork for dialogue between Tehran and Washington Hopes that these efforts could help in ending the war The comments here are coming after a report that two Pakistani officials told the AP

Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene said Wednesday she was “not close” to voting for a rate hike at this month’s meeting, but her comments carried a clear warning about rising inflation risks that markets shouldn’t dismiss. “I wasn’t tempted to hike,” Greene said at a Jefferies event. That’s notable because she’s the committee’s

There are just a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1605 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could help lock price action a little in the session ahead, though the impact is likely to

Prior 88.6; revised to 88.4 Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.0 expected Prior 86.7 Expectations 86.0 vs 86.0 expected Prior 90.5; revised to 90.2 German business sentiment falls in March and that is not all too surprising considering the Middle East developments. The outlook/expectations index also dips back lower, falling to its weakest since February 2025.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have eased significantly on Monday after Trump announced on his Truth Social account a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. However, the selloff lost momentum as Iran denied Trump’s claims. Nevertheless, the hope for the end of the war remained given

Ceasefire speculation between the US and Iran has become more complex, with uncertainty over Israel’s support and Iran pushing for a broader agreement, even as a detailed 15-point proposal is reportedly already in play. Summary: Oil remains headline-driven as ceasefire speculation evolves. NYT reports uncertainty over whether Israel supports the proposal. Iran signalled it wants

We will be considering at every meeting what the scenario is Drop in consumer confidence was quite big You can see downturn in PMIs Inflation expectations show significant effect for first year, then smaller The market dynamic suggests a price-level jump Understanding selling price expectations will be important Wage tracker is a good leading indicator

Oil finds some bids as Iran’s maximalist ceasefire demands clash with US military buildup. Summary: Iran responds to ceasefire proposal with maximalist demands (US bases closure, sanctions removal, Hormuz fees) US officials view terms as unrealistic, reducing likelihood of near-term deal Trump simultaneously pursuing diplomacy and military escalation US to deploy ~10,000 additional troops, including

FARS — an Iranian semi-official, regime-aligned outlet was out with a report on ceasefire talks and it’s led to some volatility in markets. The report was first out at 7:50 am ET but is getting some more attention in the past few minutes. Here is what it says (translation): 🔹 Informed sources report increased efforts

Summary: Reports point to a proposed one-month ceasefire between the US and Iran. The framework is said to be led by Witkoff and Kushner. A 15-point agreement would be negotiated during the truce period. Terms focus heavily on dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities and curbing regional influence. Oil implications hinge on Hormuz remaining open and de-escalation

Here is a more Google Discover-friendly version with a stronger headline, a sharper intro, and cleaner flow: Bitcoin leads crypto higher as bulls test a key breakout zone, while Ethereum follows Crypto is showing renewed strength today, with Bitcoin leading the move and Ethereum also pushing higher. But the more important question for traders and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been regaining some ground over the past few days, supported by a couple of optimistic developments on the US-Iran front. On Monday, prices jumped after Trump announced on his Truth Social account a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. Late yesterday,

Tech shares bore the brunt of the pain in trading yesterday but the losses in Wall Street just ate a little bit into the gains on Monday. That of course followed the technical scare from Friday last week, which set up a rather gloomy mood early this week before US president Trump came to the

There are increasing reports of a US military build up of potential ground forces heading towards Iran. Trump’s 5-day truce is looking like a ruse to shore up defenses among Gulf allies and and bomb Iran’s offensive capabilities before than can be turned against Gulf infrastructure. So what’s the plan? All the speculation is about

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been regaining some ground over the past few days, supported by a couple of optimistic developments on the US-Iran front. On Monday, prices jumped after Trump announced on his Truth Social account a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. However, the

Summary: Conway frames cost of living as purchasing power, not just inflation, with NZ prices structurally high vs OECD Pandemic inflation lifted price levels ~26%, while income growth only just kept pace Real wages modestly higher, but purchasing power still only around OECD average Middle East conflict flagged as a new inflation risk via energy

As a reminder, Japan is one of the most heavily impacted nations by the US-Iran conflict. That as it is unable to secure oil supply from the Middle East amid the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And for a country ever so reliant on energy imports, it’s a massive blow to the

From the BoJ we get the minutes of the January meeting. We had the ‘Summary’ from this back at the beginning of February: signalled moderate economic momentum and stickier inflation trends, endorsing careful future rate increases if forecasts unfold as expected. From Australia, February inflation data: Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.

ICYMI, this from the Financial Times earlier. Iran said “non-hostile vessels” may transit Hormuz with coordination, signalling controlled access rather than full closure, as thousands of ships remain stalled amid rising regional tensions. Summary: Iran says “non-hostile vessels” can transit Hormuz with coordination. Communication sent to International Maritime Organization members. Tehran signals conditional access rather

He covered a bunch of topics in his interview with the BBC. Here’s his take on the Middle East conflict: If Iran remains a threat and higher oil prices hold, it will have “profound implications” to the global economy It is too early to say what the outcome will be on the conflict However, it

Oil retraces a touch as Iran demands cast doubt on ceasefire and US boosts troop presence PBoC adds liquidity with CNY 500bn MLF, extends net injection streak (450bn mature) RBNZ’s Conway warns on purchasing power as Iran shock clouds NZ outlook, GDP 4cast slashed Iran distrusts Trump ceasefire peace push as US pairs diplomacy with

Policy rate is the main tool but there are situations where FX intervention is more suitable Negative interest rates worked in the past but they have side effects Interest rate differentials are an important driver of the exchange rate The Swiss franc hasn’t moved on these headlines but the pair has recently bounced after hitting

Its been a day of developments in the Middle East. It appears on balance positive: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open. Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demands and this

The price of Bitcoin is trading lower on the day and has moved back below its key moving averages — the 200-hour MA at $71,082 and the 100-hour MA at $69,815. These levels have been important barometers for buyers and sellers going back to February, with the price oscillating above and below them as the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Iran is wary of Trump’s push for talks, believing previous negotiations were used as cover for strikes, even as the US presses ahead with a 15-point plan and a growing military build-up. Info via Axios (though I mentioned it earlier) Summary: Iran suspects Trump’s peace push may be a setup for further strikes. Tehran told

Iran proposed a regional security alliance excluding the US and Israel, signalling a push to reshape Middle East security dynamics and reduce reliance on external powers. The proposal is not new, but its more aggressive framing during active conflict reinforces shifting regional security dynamics and geopolitical risk. Summary: Iran proposes regional security and military union

PBoC extends liquidity support with 13th straight MLF net injection Summary: PBoC to inject CNY 500bn via 1-year MLF, vs CNY 450bn maturing Results in CNY 50bn net liquidity injection Marks 13th straight month of net injections Conducted via variable-rate, multiple-price auction Signals continued policy support for liquidity and credit Reinforces accommodative but measured easing

The US plans to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to the Gulf, boosting military readiness against Iran while keeping options open, as regional attacks intensify and ceasefire signals remain unclear. While we are all talking about the possibility of a ceasefire: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 20.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BoJ minutes signal a steady tightening bias with inflation nearing target and financial conditions still accommodative, while rising oil prices since the meeting add fresh upside risks. Summary: BoJ minutes reinforce gradual but ongoing rate hike bias. Members see financial conditions still accommodative, helped by weak yen. Underlying inflation seen edging toward 2% target. No

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file for an IPO that could raise over $75bn, though the size and structure remain uncertain given its already high private valuation. The Information carries the report, gated. Summary: SpaceX reportedly preparing to file IPO prospectus imminently. Deal could target a raise of more than $75bn, per report. Retail allocation

A proposed ceasefire is the chatter right now: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open. Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demands As hostilities continue: Israel expands conflict footprint with strike

Israel struck a major Russia–Iran supply route in the Caspian Sea, targeting Bandar Anzali port and highlighting expanding conflict scope and deepening Moscow–Tehran cooperation. The chatter is of a ceasefire, but there’s a way to go until we get there: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal is

Axios has turned into something of a White House propaganda machine in this war but this report is more cautious. It says that the US and a group of regional mediators are waiting for a response from Iran about holding peace talks on Thursday. The problem for Iran is that last month, it held two

USDJPY Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Since the start of the North American session, the USDJPY has narrowed its focus for traders. On the topside, the key directional triggers remain the 100-hour moving average at 158.887 and the 200-hour moving average at 159.04 — clearing either level would shift the near-term bias more decisively

Deutsche Bank turns more hawkish on the ECB, arguing that energy-driven inflation risks now outweigh growth concerns, though the policy outlook remains highly uncertain. Summary: Deutsche Bank shifts ECB call in response to Middle East conflict Now expects ECB to hike rates to 2.50% in 2026 Two 25bp hikes seen in June and September Energy

Yesterday at this time, markets were in the middle of a dramatic reversal. Earlier declines in equities flipped sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging more than 1,000 points at its peak. At the same time, yields—which had pushed up toward 4.44%—reversed lower and briefly moved into negative territory on the day. The

The US treasury sold $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.936% WI level at the time of the auction 3.918% Tail 1.8 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.44X vs 6 month average of 2.62X Directs 16.5% versus 6 month average of 32.1%

Earlier: PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8840 – Reuters estimate PBOC inject 17.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repo OMO at 1.4% (unchanged rate) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off 2-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the 1st of 3 coupon auctions this week. Tomorrow the treasury will auction off of 5 year notes and on Thursday 7 year notes. Below are a review of the major components that the market will compare the

Prior 50.9 Services PMI 51.2 vs 52.5 expected Prior 53.5 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.0 expected Prior 53.2 I would ignore the headline figures as they don’t reflect the real picture. The commentary is clearly pointing to stagflationary pressures from the US-Iran war and the longer it persists, the worse the negative impact on the

Westpac sees Australia CPI steady but flags energy-driven upside risks. In brief from their preview. Summary: February CPI seen at 0.1% m/m, 3.8% y/y (unchanged) Trimmed mean expected 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y Inflation momentum steady but still above target band February data pre-dates Middle East energy shock Fuel prices fell in February, masking underlying pressures

Comments from the Dutch central bank President: ECB very vigilant on possible second round effects ECB likely to have more info on second-round effects in April, but data will be limited More than any other central bank, the ECB has made a hawkish pivot in the wake of the energy price spike. That’s awfully reminiscent

Prior was +2.8% Productivity +1.8% vs +2.0% expected (lowest since Q1 2025) Prior productivity +2.8% These numbers are very tough to draw conclusions from. There is so much variance in quarterly unit costs and productivity that the trend isn’t clear until years later. On the surface, we got weaker productivity and higher labor inflation than

Tight labour market, firmer wages will keep in place cycle in which wages and prices rise in tandem Temporary freeze to food sales tax may briefly push down inflation But it is likely to have a limited impact on inflation expectations as a whole BOJ will guide monetary policy appropriately to stably achieve inflation target

Generally speaking, when a bellwether stock moves, the broader market tends to follow—and in today’s environment, Nvidia is that bellwether, especially within the AI-driven technology space. So what Nvidia is doing technically matters—not just for the stock itself, but for the NASDAQ and S&P as well. That’s why the recent price action carries more weight.

Breman signalled higher near-term inflation but stressed a conditional response, with policy hinging on cost pass-through and second-round effects. Summary Breman reiterates near-term inflation lift driven by energy shock Growth expected to soften alongside rising costs Focus on whether firms pass through costs or absorb margins Monitoring for second-round effects and inflation expectations shift Signals

Daly signalled the Fed is navigating a highly uncertain outlook driven by geopolitical risks, with policy likely to remain flexible rather than guided by a fixed path. Summary: Daly outlines two scenarios tied to Middle East conflict trajectory Quick resolution → energy spike seen as temporary, policy can look through it Prolonged conflict → risks

The USDCHF — like the other major pairs yesterday — experienced sharp two-way volatility following President Trump’s post pausing strikes on Iran energy facilities. The headline shifted sentiment quickly, sending the dollar lower after it had been bid higher during the Asian and early European sessions. However, as the pair moved to session lows, buyers

The Reuters report cites three senior Israeli officials in saying that US president Trump appears to be quite determined in trying to strike a deal with Iran. That as he is aiming to try and end hostilities in the Middle East after the developments in recent weeks. However, the sources say that they are of

It’s impossible to decide who to believe and trust right now. Trading feels like an impossible battle of fighting the propaganda departments of Iran, the USA and Israel. Trump himself is a shameless information manipulator and this entire war was started during the same kind of ‘talks’ that are supposedly going on now. On the

Prior 49.6 Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 49.5 expected Prior 50.1 Composite PMI 48.3 vs 49.3 expected Prior 49.9 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 51.9 Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 49.4 expected Prior 50.8 Composite PMI 50.5 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.9 The manufacturing sector is the only bright spot, with Germany leading the recovery in that regard. That being said, manufacturing output was softer than what the main index indicates with it being a two-month low. Meanwhile, the

Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview. WSJ: Gulf states edge toward war with Iran as Saudi signals imminent entry Central banks seen sustaining gold demand amid geopolitics and dedollarisation Japan core inflation slips below target as subsidies mask underlying price pressures PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8943 Japan

A bit of an update, with Kpler’s intel source Amena Bakr reporting on the matter. She says that “a number of LPG vessels crossed the strait yesterday and headed towards India”. Adding that “the strait is not closed, but the passage of vessels is tightly controlled by Iran and vessels need to seek permission before

USDJPY consolidates below the key 160.00 figure as focus turns to US-Iran negotiations UK March flash services PMI 51.2 vs 53.0 expected Trump wants a deal but negotiations not likely to be successful, says Israeli officials Eurozone March flash services PMI 50.1 vs 51.1 expected Germany March flash manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 49.5 expected France

Do you trust Trump? That’s the question that every market participant is asking today. The US President said several times today that the White House has had discussions with Iran about ending strikes and opening up the Strait of Hormuz. The problem is that Iran has denied every claim. There are possible reason for the

The early moves today are a pullback to what we saw in trading yesterday. Oil prices are up and so are Treasury yields, which in turn are weighing on equities and precious metals again. And in the major currencies space, the dollar is once again creeping higher across the board. Putting aside all the noise

Al Arabiya reports that sources to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel’s largest paid newspaper, said that Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi secretely informed Netanyahu of Mojtaba Khamenei’s approval for negotiations and that the Supreme Leader has agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement. This would be in line with what Trump has claimed yesterday but

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday after Trump announced on his Truth Social account a five-day ceasefire for negotiations toward “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities.” However, the selloff in the greenback was short-lived as Iran quickly denied the claims. Most notably, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, who is

Gulf states are moving closer to joining the conflict with Iran, with Saudi Arabia signalling a potential shift toward direct military involvement. Wall Street Journal (gated) report. Summary: Gulf states moving closer to direct involvement in conflict with Iran Saudi Arabia allows US use of key air base, signalling deeper alignment Crown Prince Mohammed bin

Japan inflation data for February 2026. Earlier: February Tokyo data showed underlying price pressures moderating – This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The dollar has seen gains ease while US futures have swung back into positive territory now. The latest reported rumour comes from Al Arabiya, in citing their sources to say that incumbent Iran leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiate with the US on an agreement. So, that’s putting a little bit more of a

Doubline’s Gundlach: No terribly enthusiastic about credit markets or stocks at this time. Ominous: Thousands of US Marines are slated to arrive in the Middle East on Friday Oil plunges as Iran tensions ease. Crude oil futures settle at $88.13 Netanyahu spoke with Trump: Says war achievements can be leveraged into deal Markets tentatively embrace

Japan inflation slowed on subsidies, but underlying price pressures remain firm, keeping the BoJ’s tightening path intact. Summary: Headline CPI slows to 1.3% y/y (prev 1.5%, est 1.3%) Core CPI (ex fresh food) drops to 1.6% (prev 2.0%, est 1.7%), below BoJ target Core-core CPI (ex food, energy) holds at 2.5% (prev 2.6%, est 2.4%)

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It’s a modest-sized one but not likely to factor much into play in the day ahead. As things stand, headline risk is everything in markets. US president Trump dropped a

US equity futures were deeply negative in the pre-market but spiked higher after Trump posted that he had postponed attacks on energy infrastructure for five days amid peace negotiations. The enthusiasm was tempered after Iran denied talks and the rest of the day was a non-stop series of conflicting headlines about the likelihood of a

The oil market is currently navigating a period of extreme volatility as geopolitical headlines clash with rapid shifts in diplomatic sentiment. Just a day after crude oil futures plunged over 10%—settling near $88.13 following a temporary postponement of strikes on Iranian energy assets—the narrative has shifted back toward escalation. Fresh reports suggest that Gulf states

Japan’s national inflation data for February is due later today, with the release expected to mirror the softer tone seen in the Tokyo CPI figures earlier in the month. The Tokyo data showed underlying price pressures moderating, with core inflation slipping back below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. This has reinforced the near-term case

This is scheduled to begin on 26 March, so the Japanese government is mainly offering confirmation on the total figure. As a reminder, Japan had already released about 15 days’ worth of reserves from the private sector on 16 March. So, this just adds to that and the total will be roughly 80 million barrels.

DeGraaf sees gold as technically oversold, with positioning suggesting scope for a near-term rebound despite ongoing macro headwinds. Looking at that chart above the call may have played out. Summary: Renaissance Macro’s Jeff DeGraaf sees gold as technically oversold Suggests recent pullback has created conditions for a rebound Positioning and sentiment indicators point to a

RBNZ signalled it will look through temporary energy-driven inflation but stands ready to hike rates if persistent price pressures threaten inflation expectations. Summary: RBNZ flags two-path outlook tied to Middle East-driven energy shock Short-lived spike → policymakers to look through petrol-driven inflation Prolonged disruption → risk of higher inflation, weaker growth, tighter policy Warns second-round

Central banks are expected to keep buying gold amid geopolitical risks and diversification trends, though elevated prices and market dynamics may temper the pace. Summary: Central banks expected to remain active gold buyers in 2026 New and previously inactive buyers entering the market Recent purchases seen from Indonesia, Malaysia and Guatemala Demand tied to geopolitical

Says he spoke with Trump Says Trump believes war achievements can be leveraged into a deal with Iran Says any deal will preserve ‘our vital interests’ I’m sort of at the point in this conflict where I don’t trust any of the ‘sources’ reports coming out of anywhere. But at least with comments directly from

Apollo capped withdrawals after redemption demand exceeded limits, highlighting growing liquidity stress in private credit funds. Summary: Apollo Global Management caps withdrawals in private credit fund Redemption requests reportedly reached ~11% of outstanding shares Withdrawals limited to 5%, highlighting liquidity constraints Reflects broader stress across semi-liquid private credit funds Industry facing mismatch between liquid access

Crude oil futures are settling sharply lower, down -$10.10 (-10.28%) to $88.13, after trading in a wide range between a high of $101.67 and a low of $84.37. The catalyst for the selloff came after President Trump’s Truth Social post, which signaled productive talks between the U.S. and Iran and a five-day postponement of planned

Fitch’s note from Friday. Scenarios highlight the scale of upside risk to oil prices, with prolonged Hormuz disruption potentially driving Brent toward $120 and keeping markets volatile. Summary: Fitch outlines oil price scenarios tied to duration of Hormuz closure Brent seen averaging $120/bbl in 2026 under six-month disruption Three-month closure scenario points to ~$100/bbl average

The USDCAD edged to a marginal new high for the year—stretching just a pip beyond the January 23 peak to 1.3755 (vs. 1.3754)—before quickly running into resistance. From there, price action reversed sharply following the Trump Truth Social headline, triggering a swift move lower. That downside momentum carried the pair into a key confluence zone,

You have to wonder, what was the past three weeks all for then? US president Trump is now saying that they’ve had “very good and productive” talks with Iran to put an end to all hostilities in the Middle East. And that there will be a ceasefire of sorts now for a period of five

Bearish for UK bonds (higher yields) and negative for growth outlook; supports inflation expectations and hawkish BoE repricing, with spillover risk to global fixed income markets. Summary: UK PM Starmer convenes emergency “COBRA” meeting on Iran war fallout Finance minister Reeves and BoE Governor Bailey to attend Focus on energy security, inflation, and economic resilience

Gulf shipping risks intensify as projectile incident near UAE signals widening threat zone. Trump isn’t helping: Summary: Explosion reported near bulk carrier off Sharjah coast, crew unharmed Incident linked to rising attacks on commercial vessels in Gulf waters Blast occurred close to vessel, suggesting it may have been targeted Similar projectile incident reported near Qatar

Deal with Iran could be in 5 days or sooner Not sure what Iran’s media is talking about (regarding no talks) Talks with Witkoff, Kishner and their counterparts The market likes what its hearing and is willing to bet on a deal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF has been respecting its key technical levels, with the 200-hour moving average playing a central role in recent price action. On Friday—and again during the Asian-Pacific session today—the pair found support against the 200-hour moving average (currently at 0.7872). Buyers leaned against that level, helping to stabilize the downside and fuel a move

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Comments from Trump: “We have had very, very strong talks. We’ll see where they lead. We have major points of agreement… They went, I would say perfectly. I would say that if they carry through with that, it’ll end that problem, that conflict.” On the possibility of troops: We don’t talk strategy I don’t think

Monday starts quietly, with no significant events scheduled for the FX market. Overall, it’s a light week for data, with the main focus likely to remain on developments in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Japan will release its national core CPI y/y, while the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. will publish flash manufacturing and

Gold has undergone a dramatic shift in both technical tone and momentum, and the price action over the last few sessions is sending an important signal to traders. The first warning came on Friday, when gold closed below its 100-day moving average for the first time since December 2024. That break was significant. The 100-day

As energy prices continue to stay elevated, there are growing worries that the latest development will derail the economic recovery in Europe. In particular, the German manufacturing sector looked like it was starting to show some signs of life to start the new year. And then, we have all of this happen in the last

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is reportedly the person doing the negotiations with the White House about ending the war but the foreign ministry is denying it. They say they’ve had no talks with the US. It’s hard to know who is telling the truth in any of this. Trump said that communications in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Thursday after a couple of de-escalatory headlines turned the risk sentiment around. That didn’t last long as the dollar started to regain ground on Friday after Wall Street Journal reported that the US was sending warships and thousands of additional marines to the Middle

Gold briefly traded flat on the day at $4480 after falling as low as $4100. It’s since slipped again and is down $50 to $4440. It’s an incredible move in an asset that’s now trading off of energy and economic shock narratives. The fear is that a prolonged shock and +$150 oil with shortages leads

Headlines: Big turn in markets as Trump delivers another TACO moment Risk appetite returns with a bang as Trump trades missiles for peace talks Iran media reportedly says there has been no direct or indirect contact with Trump UAE resumes operations at its largest gas processing facility after shutdown last week ECB’s Kazimir: Will not

It’s an intense moment, there is a lot hanging in the balance I dissented last year because we didn’t not have the data that inflation was going away This definitely throws a wrench into plans to cut rates The Fed funds futures market is pricing in about a 30% chance of a rate hike this

The Pres. Trump Truth Social post regarding good and constructive talks with Iranian officials reversed oil price with the price moving from a high of $101 to a of $84, saw US yields move lower with the 10 year moving from 4.44% to 4.31%, and saw the US stocks move from being down around -0.80%

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

From Axios reporter Barak Ravid: Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have been passing messages between the U.S. and Iran over the past two days in an effort to de-escalate, U.S. source says Senior officials from the three countries held separate talks with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the U.S. source

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices continue to consolidate around the recent highs as the US-Iran war enters the fourth week. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was deploying warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, despite Trump’s earlier assurances that he wouldn’t put American boots on the ground in

According to Bloomberg, the UAE has restarted operations at its biggest natural gas processing plant i.e. Habshan Complex after having closed down the facility last week due to Iran’s attacks. That at least according to a person familiar with the situation. That being said, the only operating LNG production plant in the country at Das

Iran’s Tasnim news agency reaffirms that “there are no talks”, adding that US president Trump’s latest comments on the Middle East situation are all part of “psychological warfare”. That as the outlet cites a senior Iranian security official. At the same time, the official says that the Strait of Hormuz “will not return to pre-war

From the man himself: “I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH,

For some context, the fiscal year 2025 preliminary figure was 5.46%. That was then watered down to 5.25% once we got the final confirmation of the exact average wage hike. It is a normal practice for that to happen, so expect more of the same this time around too. As such, this preliminary 5.26% will

Iran’s local media is not offering any confirmation to Trump’s comments it would seem. This via key energy market correspondent and head of Kpler’s energy market and OPEC+ intel, Amena Bakr, on Twitter/X. She is a well reputable source in the oil market for all things, so just be aware of the situation here. The

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Things were looking pretty dire for the S&P 500 just an hour ago as Trump’s ultimatum to Iran was keeping traders on edge for fears of further escalation. That’s now history though as Trump’s ceasefire announcement on Truth Social turned markets around quickly on expectations of a potential end to the conflict. The

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have come out to say that they will be “determined to respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms of deterrence”. Adding that if the US decides to “hit electricity, then we will hit electricity”. And if the US plans attacks on power plants,

Blackstone’s BCRED posted its first loss in over three years, down 0.4% in Feb, as private credit faces rising liquidity concerns. Investor withdrawals surged and banks tightened lending, signalling growing stress across the sector. In via Reuters. Summary: Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund posts first loss in over three years BCRED declines 0.4% in February

Will not hesitate to act if inflation was at risk of staying above target for a prolonged period We can do little about the inflation spike in the next few months Supply chains beyond energy are at risk Every future meeting is open and live We are yet to leave our “good place” The ECB

Goldman Sachs is joining in on the bandwagon in revising their call ahead of the ECB meeting next month. They had previously forecast the central bank to keep interest rates steady throughout this year. So, the change mirrors that of JP Morgan and Barclays from last week as both also expect the ECB to move

Warsh faces turbulent Fed transition as inflation, politics and oil shock collide. Japan weighs cutting inflation-linked bond buybacks as demand rises ICYMI: Fitch sees Brent at $120 if Hormuz closure persists in 2026 IEA warns Middle East crisis worse than 1970s oil shocks, eyes stock releases Saudi Aramco cuts Asia oil supply as Hormuz disruption

Saudi pipeline lifeline cushions oil shock, but risks of further disruption remain high. Summary: Saudi Arabia activates East-West pipeline to bypass Hormuz disruption Pipeline reroutes crude to Red Sea port of Yanbu amid Gulf closure Exports from Yanbu surge to ~3.6–4.0mb/d, around half pre-war levels Move helps offset loss of ~20mb/d flows typically passing through

Trump threat and Iran right back at ya!: Oil rises as Trump ultimatum to Iran fuels Hormuz escalation risks Iran has named the specific targets they will go after, all civilian water and power plants. Trump remains unable to get Hormuz reopened and oil flows back online. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Gold is down another 4% today as it closes in on $4,300 while silver is down 6% on the day as nears $64. It’s starting to get rough out there as precious metals are hit by a trifecta of negative factors. The US-Iran conflict might have seemed like a good reason for precious metals to

Escalating US-Iran brinkmanship over Hormuz puts oil markets on edge and risks deeper supply shocks. Summary: Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz Iran warns of retaliation targeting US, Israeli, and Gulf energy infrastructure Brent closes near four-year highs as geopolitical risk intensifies Analysts see rising escalation risk driving further upside

It’s a brand new week but the main focus in markets stay on the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict drags on further and the latest development is that US president Trump delivered a warning over the weekend for Iran to “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz. Trump gave a 48-hour ultimatum, which will run its course

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for the day, with the full list seen below. There is a large-ish one for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 mark but it likely won’t factor much into play. That as the broader market sentiment right now is more focused on inflation fears as the Middle East

Goldman Sachs raises oil forecasts as extended Hormuz disruption and structural supply risks lift long-term price expectations. Summary: Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on prolonged Hormuz disruption Bank now assumes flows operate at ~5% capacity for six weeks Recovery expected to take an additional month thereafter Structural risks seen driving higher long-term oil prices

IEA warns crisis worse than 1970s shocks as Hormuz disruption drives global energy strain. Summary: IEA warns Middle East crisis is “severe” and escalating Birol says situation worse than both 1970s oil crises combined Reopening Strait of Hormuz seen as the single biggest solution IEA consulting governments on potential further strategic oil releases No fixed

Summary: Saudi Aramco cuts April crude supply to Asian buyers Supplies constrained due to Hormuz disruption from Iran conflict Buyers told to lift only Arab Light crude from Yanbu terminal Shift reflects reliance on Red Sea export route via East-West pipeline Limited pipeline and terminal capacity forcing supply rationing Heavier crude grades likely harder to

Fitch outlook cut puts New Zealand’s fiscal path under scrutiny and lifts yields. Summary: Fitch revises New Zealand outlook to Negative, affirms AA+ rating Concerns centre on delayed fiscal consolidation and rising debt Government debt projected to peak around 56% of GDP by FY27 Timeline for return to surplus pushed out to FY30 Economic recovery

Japan ramps up FX warnings as oil-driven volatility pressures the yen, with authorities signalling readiness to intervene while also deploying fiscal support to offset rising energy costs. Summary: Japan signals readiness to act against FX volatility Top currency diplomat Mimura flags impact of oil-driven speculation on FX Comments reinforce concern over rapid yen moves amid

Summary: Gold is under pressure from a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields Markets are repricing for fewer rate cuts and possible renewed tightening Oil shock is lifting inflation fears, which is pushing real-rate expectations higher Safe-haven demand is rotating partly into the US dollar rather than gold Profit-taking is also likely after gold’s

The USD is a little higher in early indications. Pretty soon wholesale market participants will be getting active and machines will be switched on. Until then, like I said above, its thin and scatty. Take care. I’ll be back with weekend baloney news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump says reopening Hormuz “a simple military manoeuver” with “so little risk” US made detailed preparations for potential ground troops in Iran – report US assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six months Iran unwilling to discuss Hormuz while under attack – report Canada January retail sales +1.1% vs +1.5%

As we head into the close, the major US stock indices are pressing to new lows for the day and the week, with downside momentum building. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1.5%, while the NASDAQ has extended losses to around -2.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure. This week marks an important technical shift, as both

The declines in the major indices were symmetrically worse going from the Dow, to the S&P to the Nasdaq. Rounding, the Dow fell -1.00%, the S&P fell -1.50%, and the Nasdaq fell by -2.00%. All three indices also closed below its 200 day MA this week. The Dow 200 day MA is at 46562. The

At a certain point, the Strait will open itself I think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to end I don’t want to do a ceasefire We can have dialogue but I don’t want to do a ceasefire On Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan

The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it

Here is the latest from Trump: We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS report. The report says Trump is deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region. “No, I’m not putting troops anywhere,” Trump said yesterday but quickly added: “If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.” I wonder why

The USD 10 year yield is trading up to 4.407%. That is the highest level going back to August 1, 2025.. The yield is up over 10 basis points this week. Yields are up around 45 basis points since low of 3.926% on March 2. The move higher has the US dollar moving to the

The USD is pushing higher to kick off the Friday session. Stocks are trading lower, yields remain stubbornly elevated with the 10-year hovering near 4.30%, and oil prices are choppy but modestly lower. In today’s video, I break down the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective—highlighting the bias, key risks, and the levels

Prior was +2.7% (revised to +2.8%) PPI y/y +5.4% vs +5.4% prior Raw materials price index +0.6% m/m vs +7.7% prior Raw materials price index +8.6% y/y vs +8.0% prior Normally, the Bank of Canada would give a lower reading like this some attention but with energy prices spiking, that won’t be the case this

Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences. The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back. The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything

Headlines: Dollar recoups some losses on the day, eyes stay on the Middle East ahead of the weekend US stocks with their backs against the wall in the final stretch of the week Trump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz EU leaders make the rare choice of appointing

U.S. accelerates Middle East troop deployment amid rising Iran tensions. Summary: U.S. accelerating deployment of Marines and naval assets to Middle East Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and 11th MEU deploying ahead of schedule Around 4,000 personnel aboard initial three-ship group Potential expansion to six ships and ~8,000 total service members USS Tripoli already en route;

If oil stays high for months on and at some point it leads into core inflation. A high and persistent oil shock would not have a transitory impact on inflation. Based on the jobs report was planning to dissent, but since then inflation has become more of a concern Zero job growth does not seem

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz: Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay,

Prior was -0.4% Ex autos +0.8% vs +1.2% expected Prior ex autos +0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Advance February sales +0.9% Sales hit $70.7 billion in January Sales ex autos and gas +0.9% The advance reading tends to be the better signal in this report and the number for February is strong. As for January, vehicles

Today’s stock market heatmap paints a vivid picture of a market grappling with varied performance across different sectors. Let’s delve into the dynamics shaping the trading landscape today. 📉 Technology Sector Faces Headwinds The technology sector is currently under significant pressure, marked by notable declines. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.91%, while Oracle (ORCL) has taken

Why is it always the meme stocks where they find the fraud? Supermicro shares are getting absolutely destroyed on Friday, down 27% and hitting fresh 52-week lows after federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging three company associates — including co-founder Wally Liaw — with smuggling $2.5 billion in Nvidia-powered AI servers to China. The stock

The CHF weakened initially (USDCHF moved higher) after the SNB signaled a willingness to intervene following its decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. The pair extended to a high of 0.7957, stalling just ahead of a downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart. However, the upside momentum could not be sustained. Broad-based USD selling during

Gold drops on higher-for-longer repricing; technical bounce seen as corrective. Summary: Gold fell as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher and lifted inflation fears Higher-for-longer rate expectations drove yields and the US dollar up Rising real yields pressured gold despite geopolitical risks Profit-taking amplified the move after a strong prior rally Hourly charts show tentative

One of the ideas that’s been floating around markets is that Trump just wanted to dramatically degrade Iran’s military, it’s nuclear program and its ability to make missiles. Once that was done, he would declare victory and leave it to Europe and gulf states on how to open the Strait of Hormuz. It was never

Goldman Sachs warns oil prices may surge further on prolonged supply risks. Summary: Goldman Sachs sees upside risks to oil prices near term and into 2027 Brent settles at $108.65 after volatile session, earlier above $119 Iran conflict disrupting energy supply and Hormuz shipping routes Bank warns Brent could exceed 2008 all-time high if disruptions

HFM, a leading online trading platform, today announces a new multi-year partnership with Arsenal, becoming an Official Global Partner of the club. The agreement brings together two international brands defined by performance and ambition, united by a shared commitment to long-term success. As HFM continues to expand its global presence, the partnership provides a platform

Nagel said that the central bank will have to consider a rate hike as early as next month, that is if price pressures continue to ramp up further amid the Middle East conflict. Adding that: “As things currently stand, it is conceivable that the medium-term inflation outlook could deteriorate and inflation expectations could rise on

Summary: HSBC stays constructive on markets despite geopolitical volatility. Summary: HSBC Private Bank remains constructive on six-month investment outlook Global growth expected to be led by U.S. and Asia Markets shaped by AI, fiscal concerns and Middle East conflict Bank maintains overweight stance on global equities U.S. seen as resilient despite investor diversification trends Asia

Summary: Powell to deliver brief remarks at award event on Saturday at 1430 GMT/1030 US Eastern time Appearance tied to American Society for Public Administration conference Remarks expected to be non-policy and pre-prepared No press conference or Q&A scheduled Follows Fed decision to hold rates steady this week Powell emphasised need for further inflation progress

Morgan Stanley delays Fed cuts as oil and inflation risks complicate outlook. Summary: Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September and December Previous forecast was June and September easing Fed seen as more cautious following latest policy meeting Powell signals need for clearer progress on inflation Rising oil prices complicating disinflation process Geopolitical

Strong growth will be supported by government’s supply side policies Hearing AI will augment workers, not replace them I am still concerned about the jobs market I always like to highlight the word ‘still’ in central bank speak because it’s almost always a tell that they’re losing faith in a position. Bowman has been a

The bandwagon is starting to grow, with the two latest calls adding to the one from JP Morgan earlier here. And much like JP Morgan, both Barclays and Morgan Stanley had previously forecast no rate changes by the ECB for the year. And amid the latest developments in the Middle East and higher energy prices,

Saudi warns oil could hit $180, supply shock raises recession risks. Summary: Saudi officials see oil potentially reaching $180 if disruptions persist Iran conflict has removed millions of barrels from global supply Oil prices up around 50% since late February Brent recently surged above $119 amid infrastructure attacks Strait of Hormuz disruptions central to supply

Israel’s prime minister is set to hold his first press conference in more than a week at 1830 GMT (2:30 pm ET). There are various reports about a rift between the US and Israel and Trump did not appear to be happy about the attacks (and counter-attacks) on energy infrastructure. Just now a report from

The People’s Bank of China rate setting is a non-event. China’s main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses these open market operations to inject or

German producer prices -0.5% vs +0.3% m/m expected Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.1% This will arguably be the last report before it all changes up due to the Middle East conflict. As such, I wouldn’t look much into this as the data is rather dated at this point in time. The main drag for the

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some holding relatively close by for EUR/USD and AUD/USD at the 1.1500 and 0.7050 levels respectively. However, they aren’t likely to feature much into play. As things stand, dollar sentiment remains the key driver of

JPMorgan cuts S&P 500 target as oil shock raises recession risk. Summary: JPMorgan cuts S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 7,500 Oil surge driven by Iran conflict raises recession risks Bank warns markets underestimating hit to consumer demand Oil shocks above 30% historically linked to recessions S&P 500 breaks below 200-day moving average Further downside

Comments from Israel PM Netanyahu are helping to reverse the trends in oil and stocks and ease some of the wall of worry. Netanyahu is making amends for the bombing of South Pars field yesterday. In retaliation, Iran targeted Qatar’s energy infrastructure—specifically the Ras Laffan Industrial City, which is one of the world’s largest liquefied

Trump: He thought impact of Iran would be worse, will be over with soon Netanyahu: Won’t put a stopwatch, but it will end much sooner than people think BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in March meeting decision ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected US initial jobless claims 205K versus 215K estimate US new-home

The drop in Wall Street yesterday could’ve been so much worse. A late-day rally helped to salvage something towards the end but is it enough to stop the bleeding this week? The only comfort is that some reassurances from US president Trump on the war at least helped to prop up sentiment a little. But

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Comments from Netanyahu: Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles following 20 days of war Iran has few ballistic missiles left It’s too soon to tell if Iranians will take to the streets Will attack Iran’s leaders I pledged to change the Middle East, and we have done so, and Israel

Qatar LNG supply hit by Iranian strikes, tightening global energy markets. Summary: Iranian strikes hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, cutting export capacity ~17% Damage to ExxonMobil-linked LNG trains drives ~$20B annual revenue loss Force majeure likely on long-term contracts affecting Asia and Europe Shell-operated Pearl GTL facility partially offline for at least a year

It took a while for it to really strike deep, but the seeds were already planted in the first week of the Middle East conflict. And now with Iran also trying to disrupt things on a broader scale, we are seeing inflation fears sweep across markets this week. Higher oil prices are the main issue

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 20.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations Earlier the PBOC left Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for a 10th consecutive month at 3.5% for 5 year and 3% for 1 year.

Croatian central bank governor, Boris Vujčić, is the name confirmed to be appointed as the next ECB vice president. He will be presiding over a non-negotiable 8-year term, taking over from Spain’s Luis de Guindos starting 1 June. There’s no drama or controversy with this one as de Guindos is ending his own 8-year term

Goldman Sachs expect Bank of England on hold for the rest of 2026 Powell to speak Saturday after Fed held rates. This is not a policy related speech. Tesla plans major solar expansion with Chinese equipment suppliers, eyes $2.9B deal Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September, December (from June, September) PBOC sets

After a rally that saw both the S&P index and the NASDAQ index earlier declines, selling returned and the prices of the major indices are closing lower on the day. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq index are closing below its 200 day MAs for the first time since May 2025. That is the bad

Goldman Sachs Expects BoE to remain on hold throughout 2026 vs prior forecast of quarterly cuts from July Expect that the MPC will gradually lower bank rate in 2027 to a terminal rate of 3% (Reuters headlines) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand February trade data: balance -NZ$257M vs -NZ$740M expected (prev. -NZ$519M) imports NZ$6.89B vs NZ$6.20B expected (prev. NZ$6.73B) exports NZ$6.63B vs NZ$6.60B expected (prev. NZ$6.21B) Statistics New Zealand reported the annual trade deficit stood at NZ$3B. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tesla looks to China for solar buildout despite U.S. supply chain push. Summary Tesla in talks to buy $2.9B of solar manufacturing equipment from China Aims to build 100 GW of U.S. solar production capacity by 2028 Suzhou Maxwell among leading suppliers; others also in discussions Some equipment requires Chinese export approval Highlights reliance on

WTO cuts trade and growth outlook as Middle East conflict lifts energy risks. Summary: WTO cuts global trade and growth forecasts due to Middle East conflict Goods trade growth seen at 1.4% vs 1.9% previously Global GDP forecast lowered to 2.5% from 2.8% Energy disruptions via Strait of Hormuz driving outlook downgrade Higher oil and

EU urges halt to energy strikes as Middle East tensions threaten supply. Summary: EU leaders call for moratorium on strikes targeting energy and water facilities Move aimed at de-escalation amid Iran conflict and rising global risks Leaders stress protection of civilian infrastructure and international law Concerns growing over impact on global energy supply and economy

RBNZ to expand communication, adding briefings after every policy decision. Summary: RBNZ to introduce post-decision media briefings from April April 8 meeting will be first under new format Governor Anna Breman to speak after every policy review Previously, press conferences only followed quarterly MPS meetings Interim reviews previously limited to written statements only New format

If you’re looking to trade up-and-down volatility, the AUDUSD has been a prime candidate. Going back to early February, the pair has been characterized by sharp, two-way price action, with rallies quickly reversing into selloffs—and vice versa. There have been brief periods where the market trends in one direction, but those moves have struggled to

What’s the diagnosis of Dr. Copper? It’s not a good one at the moment as the industrial metal sinks today. The price action in copper and other assets today suggests a shift away from an inflationary price shock and towards the risk of central banks raising rates and causing a global recession, or at least

The price of gold has pulled back sharply from its record highs, correcting meaningfully after an extended run to the upside. Since peaking near $5,416 at the end of February, the metal has declined roughly 16.5%, marking a notable shift in momentum after a powerful rally throughout 2025 and into early 2026. What makes the

Prior month 0.2% wholesale inventories -0.5% versus 0.2% expected. Wholesale sales 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised higher to 1.3% from 1.0% previously reported This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 futures have extended declines to 0.8% in a broad selloff in global markets, including precious metals and fixed income. It’s a ‘sell everything’ day as the market senses central banks running out of patience with inflation and high oil prices. This isn’t a great look but you can see the support down at

The EURUSD pushed higher following the rate decision and Lagarde’s press conference, but the upside momentum has remained contained, suggesting buyers are still cautious at higher levels. From a fundamental perspective, Lagarde reinforced that inflation remains the primary concern, with risks tilted to the upside—largely driven by energy prices, while growth risks are shifting to

The pace of inflation rise is expected to see upward pressure from higher oil prices Global markets are volatile with oil prices jumping significantly Risk factors now include Middle East conflict, oil prices, financial and also FX market developments Need to pay attention to those risks and how they affect Japan’s economy, prices Will continue

The euro is up 75 pips to 1.1525 today in a big rebound and a spike from earlier. The market may be sensing a big TACO trade as the war looks like something Trump doesn’t really want, especially with energy as the stakes. Headlines from Lagarde: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside The pop

I’m on board with the reversal in markets today. I think there is something of a news overload that the market is dealing with. Obviously, there were parts of the market that didn’t like what Powell said yesterday but it shouldn’t have been a surprise. If anything, the dots should matter and they still show

The USD is mixed but modestly lower against the major pairs, with gains in EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, while the greenback is firmer vs CHF and flat vs CAD. It is also softer against AUD and NZD, even as US equity futures point lower. US yields are pushing higher, with the 10-year at 4.29% (near

Choosing a prop firm in 2026 is not only about finding the lowest challenge fee or the highest advertised payout. A better comparison starts with understanding how each prop firm works, what rules define the evaluation, and whether those conditions suit your trading style. Most prop firms give traders access to simulated evaluation accounts with

Summary: Bank of England expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% Middle East conflict-driven energy shock complicates outlook Inflation risks rising again, potentially above 3% Markets shift from rate cuts to pricing possible hikes UK economy remains fragile with elevated unemployment BoE likely to deliver cautious, non-committal guidance Focus turns to timing of next move

The USDJPY is trading lower and is now pressing into a critical technical zone, where the 200-hour moving average and a rising channel trendline converge near 158.88. This area is shaping up to be a key short-term barometer for both buyers and sellers, with price action here likely to dictate the next directional move. The

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come PBOC injects 13bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia February jobs beat expectations but unemployment rises to 4.3% Summary: Employment rises strongly: +48.9K vs +20.3K expected Unemployment rate jumps to 4.3% vs 4.1% expected Participation lifts to 66.9%, driving labour supply higher Part-time jobs surge (+79.4K), while full-time falls (-30.5K) Third straight upside surprise in headline jobs growth Report signals labour market loosening

Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 9-0 vs 7-2 expected Conflict in the Middle East has caused a significant increase in global energy and other commodity prices, which will affect households’ fuel and utility prices and have indirect effects via businesses’ costs CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the

Yesterday, Iran struck Qatar’s crown jewels — it’s massive LNG and refining complex called Ras Laffan. Reuters spoke with the QatarEnergy CEO: For production to restart, first we need hostilities to cease These facilities, which cost about $26 billion to build many years ago, should not be attacked The annual revenue lost from the three

European Central Bank preview via Reuters, in breif: Summary: ECB widely expected to hold rates at 2% amid heightened uncertainty Iran war-driven energy shock revives upside inflation risks Markets pricing potential hikes despite economist consensus for hold Lagarde likely to emphasise vigilance and optionality 2022 energy crisis still shaping policy sensitivity Scenario analysis to guide

ECB President Christine Lagarde earlier highlighted ECB March staff projections and the baseline showed growth revised down to 0.9% for 2026, headline inflation revised up to 2.6% on the back of the energy shock. But the baseline isn’t where the most important information lies. The alternative scenarios were just released and offer some insight on

I’ll have details and analysis posted separately. Mixed report this one, big number of jobs added, unemployment rate jumps, more job seekers in the market, full time jobs collapse. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview The stock market is experiencing a diversified landscape today, with distinct sector dynamics influencing overall performance. The technology sector is seeing significant declines, primarily led by the semiconductor industry. NVIDIA (NVDA) has dropped by 1.52% and Micron Technology (MU) by a notable 2.77%, reflecting ongoing concerns or developments specific to chipmakers. This downturn

Well, US president Trump continued to say that the war is very much following a timely schedule. And that this will all be over in a matter of “weeks”. Yet, the escalation in the conflict this week suggests that we’re still not really seeing things wind down. That especially as Iran continues to have the

Prior week 213K Initial jobs claims 205K vs 215K estimate 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 210.75K versus 211.50K last week. Continuing claims 1.857M vs 1.850M estimate. Prior week 1.850M 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.850M versus 1.852M last week The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March

The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.00% and retire the “good place” language amid the US-Iran war and the energy price shock. The central bank is expected to use a more hawkish tone to keep inflation expectations in check. The “meeting-by-meeting” and “data-dependent” approach will likely be maintained but

Main refi rate unchanged at 2.15% Deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% War poses upside risks to inflation, downside risks to growth Determined to ensure inflation reaches target Implications for medium-term inflation depend crucially on the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects The market is now pricing in 64 bps in rate hikes this year for

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower after Fed chair Powell was a bit more hawkish than the markets like. Yields moved higher with the 10 year yield back above 4.25%. U.S. stocks closed broadly lower , with all four major indices falling between 1.4% and 1.6% following the FOMC’s decision to hold

Before the Middle East conflict, underlying data showed that we are “on track” All things being equal, surging oil prices can push up inflation and curb economic output A rate hike is still possible if economic downturn proves to be temporary, doesn’t affect underlying inflation We held rates steady this month since we put emphasis

Preliminary data shows wage momentum at small, medium-sized firms could be better than past years Will still turn to Rengo’s first round survey There is no gap in understanding on inflation between government and BOJ The headline remark is modestly hawkish and if not for the US-Iran conflict, it could easily be used to tee

Prior month 0.745 million revised to 0.712M New Home sales for the month of January 0.587M vs 0.720M estimate. Further details from the report shows: Inventory (Jan 2026): 476K homes (+0.4% m/m, -4.0% y/y) Months’ supply: 9.7 months (up from 8.0 prior, +21.3% m/m, +7.8% y/y) Median price: $400.5K (-4.5% m/m, -6.8% y/y) Average price:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariff investigations will wrap up just in time for the 150 day deadline in the current tariff regime, which could also be ruled illegal (though that would be retroactive). Normally, this kind of investigation takes 12-18 months but despite a much larger scope of countries, this version will be

The NASDAQ index closed below its 200-day moving average for the second time in the last four trading days, reinforcing a growing bearish tilt in the broader market. Recall that on Friday, the index dipped below that key level into the weekly close but managed to rebound early in the new week. However, yesterday’s -1.46%

The Bank of England is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote split. The central bank is likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach amid the US-Iran war and the energy price shock, but maintain an easing bias. The extent and timing for further rate cuts will likely

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 11 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 58 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 56 bps (92% probability of no change at today’s decision) RBA: 55 bps (55% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)

Prior 0.00% Our willingness to intervene in the FX market has increased due to the Middle East crisis SNB to counter rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which could jeopardise price stability Economic outlook for Switzerland for the coming months is uncertain Main risk to the Swiss economy is the development of the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold plunged yesterday after breaking out of its recent consolidation range. The move gained momentum following news of an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field. In the days leading up to this, Iran had warned it would respond if its energy infrastructure were targeted. The attack marked a clear escalation for

Prior was +16.3 Details: New orders 8.6 vs 11.7 prior Shipments 22.2 vs 0.3 prior Unfilled orders -4.7 vs -12.9 prior Delivery times 18.9 vs -9.9 prior Inventories 1.4 vs -0.2 prior Prices paid 44.7 vs 38.9 prior Prices received 21.2 vs 16.7 prior Number of employees 0.8 vs -1.3 prior Average employee workweek 2.8

It’s the worst day in the precious metals market since the January 29 rout. Gold is down 5.8%, or $282, to $4537 while silver is down 11% to $66.82. The trigger for the selling was the Federal Reserve decision yesterday and a subsequent repricing of the Treasury curve and expectations of other central banks. The

Headlines: The hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations continues as US-Iran war escalates Gold plunges to new lows as US-Iran war escalates and the Fed considers a rate hike Silver drops by over 5% and the chart shows that there might be more trouble up ahead A quick rundown of how Iran has hit back

The Bank of Japan held its short-term policy rate at 0.75%, as widely expected more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As such, our willingness to intervene has increased The upward pressure on the franc has increased once again The franc is sought after as a safe haven in times of uncertainty It is 2.5% stronger on a trade-weighted basis since the middle of December We are ready to counter a rapid and excessive rise of

The USD is tilting to the upside as the Chair Powell testimony progresses. What has that done to the technicals for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD? I outline the changes and key levels in play. I also take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P indices as they react. In other markets, yields

US major indices closed sharply lower with the Dow and Russell 2000 falling -1.6% Qatar says Ras Laffan Industrial City has sustained “extensive damage” The USD is moving higher as the Fed chair testimony continues Fed’s Powell: Consumer spending has been resilient and business investment has expanded Oil gains fade as Iran’s gas company says

Will continue to communicate closely with the government Need to pay attention to possibility that higher oil prices could affect inflation more than in 2021-22 Cannot say how long it would take to judge whether energy supply shocks affect underlying prices No comment on how Middle East conflict is affecting forex levels But carefully watching

Prior 5.2% Employment change k vs -4k expected Prior 52k Average weekly earnings +% vs +3.9% 3m/y expected Prior +4.2% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +% vs +4.0% 3m/y expected Prior +4.2% February payrolls change k Prior -11k More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

How the mighty have fallen. Silver was the talk of the town as it surged by roughly 60% in January trading, hitting highs of just above $120. That is a far cry from where we are trading now, with the precious metal suffering another 5% drop today and poised for six straight daily losses in

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. It’s not one that ties much to any technical significance but could still help to keep a lid on any upside extension in price action for the session ahead. That