Summary Indian equities have entered an unusually low-volatility phase Regulatory curbs have reduced derivatives activity and intraday swings Domestic institutions now dominate ownership as foreign funds exit Equity returns lag global peers despite market stability Options traders are being forced to rethink volatility-selling strategies Info via a Bloomberg (gated) piece. India’s equity market has entered

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary Westpac now expects the RBA to hold rates through all of 2026 Inflation is easing, but not fast enough to change the RBA’s stance Rate cuts remain feasible in early 2027 under current forecasts Labour-market deterioration could shift timing earlier Private-sector recovery reducing downside growth risks Westpac Economics has revised its outlook for Australian

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Do be aware that many wholesale market participants have closed now for the holiday period. This is partially because they have closed

USD/JPY was up 220 pips on Friday and that’s not what anyone in Japan wanted to see. As bad as that looks, the reality is worse. The persistent strength of the US dollar against the yen since mid-year is increasingly problematic and Friday we might have hit a boiling point. That’s because top Japanese officials

Japan’s Katayama: Alarmed over currency moves, will take appropriate action Canada October retail sales -0.2% vs 0.0% expected ECB’s Lane on why the ECB is cutting into a sticky-inflation slowing economy US November existing home sales 4.13m vs 4.15m expected December final UMich consumer sentiment 52.9 vs 53.4 expected Fed’s Williams: CPI data had some

It was a week in two parts as heavy selling hit markets to start the week as the post-FOMC slump continued. That turned around yesterday in part due to strong revenues from Micron and the bounce continued today. A lower US CPI also helped even if it was likely skewed by data collections problems due

Summary Japan signals greater focus on fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP reduction framed as confidence booster Tax relief costs revised higher Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama signalled a renewed emphasis on fiscal discipline when outlining priorities for compiling the next fiscal year’s budget, highlighting the need to balance policy support with long-term sustainability and market confidence. Speaking on

It’s easy to dunk on strategists. It’s a year-end tradition to pull up the forecast lists and laugh at how wrong the banks were. But they did pretty well this year. With the S&P 500 trading at 6,831 today, the index is up roughly 16% on the year. That is a strong, double-digit run. And

USD/JPY is quickly lower on this. Desirable for FX to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Will take appropriate action Clearly seeing one-sided, rapid moves This is the strongest language yet and it comes after the yen sold off hard despite today’s Bank of Japan rate hike. The BOJ hiked short-term rates today to 0.75%,

The German DAX has been bouncing around for months but shook off some selling at the start of the week to post a solid gain. It was indicative of the continent, which finished Friday solid to cap an ok week. There was better strength in southern Europe, just like there has been all year. The

Prior was -0.7% (revised to -0.9%) Ex-autos -0.6% vs +0.2% expected Prior ex-autos -0.2% (revised to -0.1%) Core sales -0.5% Advance November reading +1.2% Autos sales +0.6% vs -2.9% prior The surprise story of post-Liberation Day Canada has been just how strong retail sales have been. Unemployment has been creeping up and housing is in

After months of easing, the Governing Council decided that 2.00% is the magic number—the “neutral” rate where they can sit back and let the economy hum. But if you listened to Philip Lane today, the humming sounds more like a sputter. Lane’s presentation at the CBI workshop was a masterclass in saying “we are done

Prior was 4.10m Home sales change vs +1.2% prior Shares of home builders have been beaten up this week on poor earnings and even-weaker forecasts for the months ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It is Quadruple Witching Friday—that rare quarterly alignment where contracts on four different types of securities expire simultaneously: Index options Single stock options Index futures Index futures options According to data from Goldman Sachs, a staggering $7.1 trillion in notional options exposure is set to expire today. To give you an idea of the sheer

Summary Goldman expects three BoE cuts in 2026 In March, June and September, from their previous forecast of a cut in each of February, April, and July. Labour market weakening supports easing Inflation seen remaining contained The Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates on 18 December has reinforced expectations that the UK central

Headlines: USD/JPY set to post biggest daily gain in a month, eyes on December highs BOJ governor Ueda says the possibility of further rate hikes will be data-dependent BOJ governor Ueda says rate hikes will continue if economy develops as per projections S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Is Santa Claus coming to town? Interest rate expectations

CNBC was earlier out with a report saying that the Fed’s Waller had a ‘strong interview’ for Fed chair. That begs the question: What does a strong interview with Trump look like? A pledge to lower rates? A pledge to take orders? I take this as CNBC trying to save us from one of the

An interview with Simon Massey, CEO & Co-Founder, Funded Trading Plus As 2026 approaches, traders and trading firms are operating in a market environment defined less by certainty and more by competing narratives. Artificial intelligence, geopolitical risk, shifting monetary policy, and growing concerns around market concentration have created conditions where volatility feels permanently “on standby”.

Prelim was 53.3 Prior was 51.0 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

OneRoyal has announced Dominic Poynter as its new Chief Commercial Officer. Mr. Poynter was internally promoted after a very successful stint as the broker’s Chief Marketing Officer. During his tenure as CMO, he helped secure an extremely valuable brand ambassador in Diego Forlán. Leveraging his 25 years of experience, Dominic spearheaded the company’s marketing efforts

Sector Overview The US stock market today is witnessing notable trends in the technology and semiconductor sectors. Based on today’s heatmap, tech giants are on the rise, with Oracle (ORCL) leading the charge with a stunning increase of 5.47%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a substantial uptrend, prominently driven by Nvidia (NVDA) rising 1.73%

The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points, lifting it to 0.75%, in a widely anticipated move that marks the highest level in roughly three decades and underscores the central bank’s gradual shift away from ultra-loose policy. I’ll have more specific detail on the statement and associated BoJ releases soon,

Let’s get this out of the way first and foremost. The rate hike today was very well anticipated and priced in by markets already. As such, there isn’t all too much reaction with the Japanese yen even falling after the fact even as interest rates are at the highest since 1995. Markets don’t react to

Williams did a fairly big 180 in supporting a December rate cut and these are his first comments since the decision. Looking ahead, his comments are generally neutral and wait-and-see tone regarding the path forward for rates. He downplays the rise in unemployment as “distortions” but also suggests the soft CPI data had “distortions” as

New Zealand recorded a monthly trade deficit of NZ$163 million in November, as import growth slightly outpaced exports, according to data released by Statistics New Zealand. While the deficit was relatively modest in monthly terms, the figures highlight the ongoing challenge of balancing external trade amid uneven global demand and domestic consumption trends. Total exports

Summary U.S. launches interagency review of Nvidia H200 exports Trump backs controlled chip sales to China National security concerns remain central The Trump administration has initiated a multi-agency review that could pave the way for the first-ever sales of Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, according to sources familiar with the process cited by

Our next policy move is not automatically an interest rate hike Future decisions are to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis Inflation risks are now slightly tilted to the downside But not in favour of pre-emptive or “insurance” rate cuts at this stage Outlook for growth and inflation in the euro area remains highly uncertain

KEY POINTS: UK data supports more rate cuts The BoE cut the Bank Rate to 3.75% as expected BoE Governor Bailey sounded more upbeat on disinflation with scope for more easing FTSE 100 gained on expectations of more policy easing, better growth FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The BoE cut the Bank Rate to 3.75% as expected yesterday

For CFD brokers, the first 72 hours are decisive. Yet most of them witness the same pattern unfold: traders register, hesitate at KYC, explore briefly, and bounce off. By the time a follow-up email arrives, they’ve already started trading with a competitor. This is no longer a conversion issue, but rather an engagement matter. How

KEY POINTS: US CPI came out much softer than expected, potentially giving the Fed a reason to cut earlier than expected The Fed’s dovish reaction function remains a tailwind for the stock market The Santa Claus rally might be starting, but traders will look for technical breaks to have more conviction FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The US

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, the main highlight was the UK Retail Sales report. The data came out negative disappointing expectations and weighing a bit on the pound. In the bigger picture, it doesn’t change anything for the BoE as it remains focused mainly on inflation. Looking ahead, we will just get a couple

KEY POINTS: US CPI surprises to the downside, potentially opening the door for an earlier than expected rate cut US Jobless Claims disagree with NFP report. We’ll get a clearer picture next month. Key technical levels are limiting the upside. Traders are waiting for breakouts. FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The US CPI yesterday surprised to the downside

President Trump is planning to issue an executive order establishing two new federal holiday, according to Axios. The move would make Dec 24 and Dec 26 holidays, in addition to Christmas which is already a day off. It would apply to Federal workers but not state and local governments In reality, many workers already get

Rate cuts by year-end (2026) Fed: 61 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 36 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end (2026) BoC: 22 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 6 bps (97% probability of no change at

Australia Private Sector Credit for November 2025: +0.6% m/m expected +0.6%, prior +0.7% Summary Credit growth matched expectations in November Lending remains steady, as do rates for now Limited implications for RBA policy Australia’s private sector credit growth held steady in November, offering little in the way of fresh signals for monetary policy but reinforcing

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary BoJ expected to hike rates to 0.75% Real rates remain negative despite move Yen reaction hinges on guidance, not decision A crowded global macro calendar lies ahead, but for markets the clear focal point is the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, followed closely by Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Together, the two events are

The GBPUSD pair has transformed into a technical battleground as the trading week nears its close. A combination of a divided Bank of England (BoE) and a cooling US inflation report has created a “whipsaw” environment, leaving the price resting precariously on a significant layer of technical support. The BoE Catalyst: A narrow 5-4 vote

Summary BoJ raised rates to 0.75% as expected Yen reaction weaker, but muted without guidance surprise Gradual policy normalisation remains base case JGB yields have risen, 10yr to highest since May 2006 The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades, delivering another milestone in its gradual

Summary EU approves €90bn Ukraine financing for 2026–27 Deal builds on budget headroom borrowing plans Multi-year support aims to boost certainty European Union leaders have reached agreement on a major new financial support package for Ukraine, approving €90 billion of funding for 2026–27, according to comments from European Council President António Costa. German Chancellor Merz

Summary Core CPI held at 3.0% in November Underlying inflation pressures remain firm Data supports gradual BoJ tightening Japan’s nationwide inflation data for November showed price pressures remaining firmly entrenched, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its gradual path toward policy normalisation. Government data released on Friday showed core consumer prices rose

Summary EU agrees in principle on Ukraine loan Funding to be backed by EU budget headroom Unanimity among member states appears possible European Union leaders have agreed in principle to provide a new loan to Ukraine, funded through EU borrowing on capital markets and backed by unused EU budget headroom, according to draft conclusions seen

Lower risks to inflation and growth triggered conditions for a rate hike today Underlying inflation is running above the 0% mark So far, market players are not all too convinced. And pardon me for also reserving some skepticism towards the probability of Ueda really hitting back at the government for a second time. They won

This follows a decline of 0.9% in retail sales volume for October, which was revised up from a 1.1% decline previously. The year-on-year estimate for November shows that UK retail sales are now 0.6% higher compared to the same month a year ago. However, that is a marked miss on estimates of +1.6% with the

Summary Goldman sees CPI having limited Fed impact December data more important for January meeting Core PCE disinflation remains intact The latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data released on 18 December is unlikely to materially alter the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy outlook, according to Goldman Sachs, which argues policymakers will instead focus on inflation

Japanese markets are volatile, adjusting to the BoJ rate hike – wary eye now BoJ Gov Ueda More detail on Bank of Japan decision to raise rates by 25bp to the highest in 30 years Bank of Japan hikes its short term rate by 25bp to 0.75%, as expected Toyota to sell U.S.-made vehicles in

Japan’s economy is showing moderate recovery, though weakness persists Loose monetary policy to sustain economic recovery Japan’s real interest rates are likely to remain very low Uncertainties in US economy and trade policies have decreased Wage increases likely will match that of the previous year Future monetary moves will reflect economy, inflation, and financial trends

Summary Toyota to export U.S.-made vehicles to Japan Move aimed at easing U.S.–Japan trade tensions Tariff relief a key motivation Toyota Motor Corp plans to begin selling U.S.-manufactured vehicles in Japan from 2026, a move aimed at easing trade tensions with Washington and strengthening ties with President Donald Trump’s administration as tariff negotiations remain in

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Summary BoJ raised policy rate to 0.75% as expected Decision was unanimous, but wording saw dissent Real rates remain significantly negative The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, delivering a widely anticipated move that takes borrowing costs to their highest level in around three decades. The decision

If clarity arrives that inflation is waning, then rates can come down IS uncomfortable front-loading rate cuts Needs to see more sustained progress on cooling inflation Measure of job market have shown pretty steady cooling Rates can go down a fair bit as long as we know we’re heading back to 2% inflation It doesn’t

At the end of the day, a government’s economic job is to spend money and collect taxes. The ones that spend too much ultimately have to pay it back, with interest. Running deficits is almost always popular with voters (and certainly with donors), particularly when it makes the stock market go up. BCA today has

EPS, revenue and margins all beat expectations Cost discipline and efficiency gains drove upside FY EPS guidance floor raised; capex unchanged FedEx delivered a strong fiscal second-quarter performance, beating expectations across earnings, revenue and margins, as cost discipline and improved network efficiency more than offset a still-muted global demand backdrop. The parcel delivery group reported

US November CPI 2.7% y/y vs 3.1% expected ECB leaves rates unchanged at 2.00% as expected, but lifts 2026 inflation forecast Bank of England rate decision: A quarter-point rate cut as expected US initial jobless claims 224K versus 225K estimate. Fed’s Goolsbee: The latest inflation data was favorable ECB sources report: Policymakers had no appetite

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence for December 2025: -17 vs. expected -18, prior -19 Summary Improved modestly in December Budget restraint and easing inflation offered support Spending remains weak despite real wage gains British consumer confidence edged higher in December, reaching its joint-highest level of the year, though sentiment remains weak by historical standards, according

Summary Reports suggest Cybercab testing on public roads Austin seen as key autonomy testing hub Autonomy central to Tesla’s long-term narrative Shares of Tesla are likely to draw fresh attention after social media reports suggested the company’s long-awaited Cybercab vehicle has been spotted testing on public roads in Austin, Texas for the first time. While

Summary PM office source raises nuclear weapons debate Comments clash with Japan’s non-nuclear tradition Security concerns driving renewed discussion Japan’s long-standing stance on nuclear weapons has come under renewed scrutiny after a source within the prime minister’s office suggested the country may ultimately need to possess nuclear arms, comments that risk sparking political backlash both

Major US indices delivered a powerful performance on Thursday, snapping a four-session losing streak. Investors were fueled by a “double jolt” of optimism: a cooling inflation report and robust earnings from the semiconductor sector. The lower-than-expected CPI data has successfully recalibrated market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path heading into early 2026. Inflation

The global metals market is witnessing a significant divergence as structural demand fuels a bullish outlook for gold and copper, while cyclical headwinds pressure industrial materials. Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its “long gold” conviction, projecting a double-digit rally by 2026. Gold’s $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold,

Well, at long last we are starting to perhaps see some improvements in French business sentiment. Confidence in this space has been languishing for well over a year already but is this an early sign of things to come? The composite business confidence estimate picks up in December, recording a reading of 98.7 – its

The USDCAD pair is currently locked in a high-stakes technical tug-of-war. After a persistent decline from the late November highs, the price is wedged between two defining trend indicators, creating a “make-or-break” moment for short-term traders. The Battleground: Price is squeezed between the 100-hour MA (1.3769) and the 200-hour MA (1.3795), signaling a shift from

The AUDUSD has reached a critical technical crossroads. After a strong rally from the mid-November lows, the “Aussie” is now facing its first major test of structural support. Sellers have officially wrestled back short-term control, but a key Fibonacci floor stands in their way. Shift in Power: For the first time since mid-November, sellers have

Trump Media ($DJT) — best known for Truth Social — dropped a bombshell on Thursday morning, announcing a merger with TAE Technologies—a fusion power company—in a deal valued at over $6 billion. entity. The market reaction has been instant and violent. Shares of DJT were languishing near recent lows around $10.40 but have ripped higher

If someone offers you free money usually there’s a catch. However, earning small amounts of Bitcoin without buying it is possible. It just requires a trade-off. You aren’t getting money for nothing; you are trading one of three things: Hardware Power: Using your PC to process data. Time/Data: Completing learning modules or surveys. Spending Habits:

Domestic demand the main growth engine in the years ahead Savings rate should come down Gov’t expenditure on defense should underpin investment Global environment likely to remain a drag Underlying investment remains consistent with 2% medium-term target Trade tensions have eased but volatile environment a risk The euro is higher since the ECB decision but

The euro dipped on an ECB sources report with a slight dovish tilt: Policymakers had no appetite to take a rate cut off the table Policymakers expect to keep rates on hold See risks to growth and inflation as balanced Fear some lower growth outcomes This all sounds about right and shouldn’t be a big

I expect UK CPI to fall to near 2% target in April or May 2026 Policy stance is still restrictive but I expected pace of cuts to ease at some point This is perhaps less hawkish than I would have expected from the BOE statement earlier. He is still talking about rate cuts and inflation

Germany’s finance agency has just announced some of the details of the country’s debt issuance plans for next year. And most notably, the standout is the main figure in itself as Europe’s largest economy is poised to issue about €512 billion in securities in 2026. That will mark a post-war record issuance, one that even

At a glance ECB kept rates unchanged, sticking to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach as 2026 inflation projections were revised higher. Updated forecasts leaned modestly hawkish, with firmer services inflation and stronger growth reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. EURUSD moved higher post-decision, reclaiming its 100-hour moving average and testing key resistance near 1.1762, a

Prior CHF 4.32 billion; revised to CHF 4.20 billion The Swiss trade surplus narrowed in November as exports were seen down 7.1% on the month while imports fell by 6.8% on the month. The Swiss numbers tend to be rather volatile, as they exclude precious metals and stones, works of art and antiques. As for

Santa Claus may have finally arrived at the New York Stock Exchange. Shares are surging today after a four-day slump. The S&P 500 is up 87 points, or 1.3% while the Nasdaq is up 1.9%. The S&P 500 has nearly wiped out yesterday’s harsh selloff. The rally has been helped along by a soft US

The USD is mixed versus the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—as the North American session gets underway. EURUSD is trading lower by roughly -0.22%, making it one of the bigger movers against the dollar today, alongside NZDUSD. The focus is squarely on the ECB rate decision at 8:15 AM ET, where no policy

KEY POINTS: The BoE is widely expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75% vs 4.00 prior The vote split is expected to be 5-4 in favour of the rate cut, with Bailey joining the dovish camp The focus will be on the vote split and the forward guidance No press

The Bank of England has delivered the widely anticipated 25bp cut, but the pound is catching a bid as the MPC signals that the “easy” part of the easing cycle is over. GBP/USD has jumped 35 pips on the release as the market digests a decision that was a genuine nail-biter and a statement that

US equity markets are catching a massive tailwind today as a “triple threat” of positive catalysts sends indices soaring. A significant miss in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), coupled with resilient tech earnings, has forced short-sellers to retreat and invited buyers back into the fold. Inflation Relief: US CPI cooled to 2.7% (vs. 3.1%

Canada spent weeks trying to get a deal for steel and aluminum producers in the autumn. At one point a deal looked very close and Trump even hinted that it was coming. However the deal fell apart and Trump blew up over Ontario’s tariff ads. The leaders met at the FIFA World Cup draw and

Sector Overview: Semiconductors and Communication Services Surge Todays market snapshot reveals a significant uptick in the semiconductor and communication services sectors. These sectors showcase outstanding performance, primarily driven by robust gains in several major stocks. Micron Technology (MU) leads the pack with an impressive gain of 13.02%, followed by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surging by

As mentioned earlier, the inflation data later is likely to overshadow major central bank decisions for today. However, it is going to be a messy one as the report is marred by the US government shutdown in October through to November. That has resulted in the BLS skipping the October report and the focus today

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD layered in between 1.1700 through to 1.1800. And the bigger one is seen at the 1.1750 level. With market players focusing on the ECB later today, even if it is going to be

President Donald Trump has been presented with a draft manuscript by prominent constitutional lawyer Alan Dershowitz examining whether the U.S. Constitution definitively bars a president from serving a third term, reopening a long-settled legal and political debate around presidential term limits. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carries the report. According to Dershowitz, who previously represented

Recent price action presents a conflicting signal to digital asset investors. Since early November, Bitcoin has retraced 12.9%, while Solana hascorrected 17.5%. For market participants conditioned by historical volatility, these double-digit declines often serve as a warning sign that the cycle has exhausted its momentum. Despite recent price volatility, capital allocation tells a different story.

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This follows from the modest selling yesterday, though Wall Street was hit harder as tech shares were the biggest drag. The S&P 500 closed down by 1.2% with the Nasdaq lower by 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Dow finished lower by 0.5% overnight. All

The BOE policy decision will be up first at 1200 GMT and the central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps today. That will bring the bank rate down from 4.00% to 3.75%, although the bank rate vote is the one that might intrigue. It is expected to be a close call,

The November CPI report encompasses two months and also includes some unusual seasonal or data collection factors. That’s going to make the ‘cleaner’ read as the y/y numbers, which are expected at 3.0% on both the headline and core. The BLS posted an FAQ yesterday about lack of October data collection and the trials of

Prior week 236K revised to 237K The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000 Continuing claims 1.897M vs 1.930M set Prior week revised to 1.830M from 1.838M The 4-week moving average was 1,902,000, a

S&P 500 Technical Analysis with Order Flow Deep Dive The S&P 500 is entering a critical decision zone after a sharp selloff earlier in the week and a subsequent stabilization that has started to shift short-term market dynamics. While it is too early to declare a confirmed bullish reversal, recent order flow behavior suggests that

The market was pricing in a 98% chance of no change in rates today so this was no surprise. Going forward, the market expects the ECB to leave rates on hold for all of 2026 so there isn’t much drama here. The euro was trading at 1.1717 ahead of the report and is up to

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

BoE expected to cut rates 25bp to 3.75% Inflation fell to 3.2% in November Growth and labour market weakening Services inflation remains sticky Further cuts likely limited The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates at its final policy meeting of the year today, following a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in inflation and mounting

Prior was +3.0% Core CPI 2.6% vs 3.0% expected (prior 3.0%) Core lowest since March 2021 Core goods +1.4% y/y OER at +3.4% y/y vs +3.8% prior This is surprisingly soft but there were some problems collecting the data and this will be met with skepticism. The BLS was assuming that October CPI was zero

This will be yet another unusual report release, something akin to what we saw with the labour market report earlier this week. This time around though, just be wary that the BLS will not be releasing a full report for October and so market players will have to make due with a gap between the

The People’s Bank of China’s decision to issue 40 billion yuan of 182-day central bank bills in Hong Kong on December 22 should be viewed as part of a broader effort to manage the pace of recent CNY strength. Unlike earlier episodes where offshore bill issuance was used to counter depreciation pressure, the yuan is

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, the main highlights will be the BoE and ECB monetary policy decisions. The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75% vs 4.00% prior. There’s a strong consensus that the vote split will be 5-4 in favour of the

Honda to suspend production in Japan and China Company cites ongoing chip shortages Demand conditions may also be a factor Shares fall on renewed uncertainty Output recovery risks persist Honda Motor Co. is set to suspend vehicle production across parts of Japan and China in the coming weeks, underscoring continued fragility in global automotive supply

The Bank of England delivered the expected Christmas cut, but the market reaction is anything but dovish. While the Bank Rate dropped to 3.75% from 4.00%, the pound is higher, driven by a deeply divided MPC and guidance that suggests the BoE is nearing the bottom. Cable (GBP/USD) jumped roughly 35 pips following the release,

Gold is taking a bit of a breather today but so far in December trading, it is very much sticking to the seasonal script from the past few years. Prior to December last year, gold has been on a hot streak in the final month of recent years as the precious metal posted gains in

Trump announces “warrior dividend” for service members: $1,776 payment per person before Christmas Roughly $1.8bn targeted fiscal injection Likely short-term boost to consumption Limited macro impact but strong political signal U.S. President Donald Trump said more than one million (I think the number is around 1.4mn) U.S. service members will receive a special one-off payment

While the data due from New Zealand is noted in the calendar screenshot below as high priority I want o give a small heads up on why perhaps its not that much of a priority for traders. Gross domestic product data remains a useful benchmark, but its relevance for real-time market analysis is inherently limited

End of Day Summary: Tech Rout Batters S&P 500 and Nasdaq Silver Price Analysis: XAGUSD Hits Record Highs (Up 130% in 2025) The US treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.798% What if the chart of US oil production is wrong? Oracle is getting crushed again and is

Japan signals increased vigilance on FX moves Yen weakness remains a key concern Verbal intervention used to temper speculation Long-term rates also under scrutiny No immediate policy action signalled Japan’s top government spokesman has stepped up verbal warnings on market conditions, signalling heightened official sensitivity to yen moves and rising long-term interest rates as authorities

BofA warns of building stock bubble risk but sees more upside in AI Bank of England (BoE) set to cut rates as inflation slows, but easing seen as limited US approves $10bn-plus arms sales to Taiwan, China defence stocks index hits 2 mth high Japan signals FX vigilance, leans against yen weakness with verbal intervention

The TL;DR: Morgan Stanley expects CPI to confirm firm inflation pressures Core CPI seen near 3.0% y/y in November Shelter and goods prices remain resilient Data limitations reduce monthly detail Supports cautious Fed policy outlook U.S. consumer price data due on Thursday, December 18, is expected to confirm that underlying inflation pressures remain firm, according

U.S. approves $10bn+ arms sales to Taiwan Package includes HIMARS, ATACMS, howitzers and drones Likely to inflame U.S.–China tensions China defence stocks jump on news Raises regional security risks The Trump administration has approved a sweeping package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at more than $10 billion, sharply escalating military support for the island

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Friday, December 19, a move that is now almost fully priced by markets. With the outcome largely anticipated, investor attention will shift squarely to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference, scheduled for 06:30 GMT (0130

Coinbase has announced its taken a significant stride toward realising its vision of becoming an “Everything Exchange,” unveiling major product expansions that embed traditional financial instruments and event-prediction markets directly into its core app. This marks a pivotal shift for the U.S.-listed crypto exchange, moving beyond solely digital assets to offer users a unified platform

Global equity markets are showing growing signs of bubble-like behaviour, but the core artificial intelligence trade still appears to have further upside, according to Bank of America Global Research. In its latest Global Equity Volatility Insights report, the bank argues that while pockets of the market are already displaying instability consistent with late-cycle excess, the

South Korea flags concern over widening FX volatility Authorities monitoring markets closely Global policy divergence cited as key risk FX intervention remains an option RBI action highlights regional playbook South Korea’s finance minister has stepped up warnings over rising foreign-exchange volatility, signalling a heightened state of alert as global monetary policy divergence continues to weigh

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Key Takeaways Tech Wreck: The Nasdaq Composite led market declines, dropping -1.78% as investors aggressively rotated out of AI and semiconductor stocks. Sector Rotation: While Technology (-2.14%) and Industrials (-1.66%) lagged, the Energy sector surged (+2.12%) alongside defensives. The AI Unwind: Major names like Nvidia, AMD, Palantir, and Oracle saw heavy selling pressure, with many

The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s policy meeting, reinforcing the view that the easing phase has ended as the euro zone economy shows greater resilience and inflation remains anchored near target. the statement is due at 1315 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time European Central Bank President Lagarde

The Bank of Japan is expected to disappoint markets looking for clear guidance on the terminal rate when it concludes its two-day policy meeting on Friday, reinforcing the view that policy normalisation will remain cautious, conditional and highly data-dependent. Thats the view from Bank of America on the BoJ meeting today and tomorrow. While a

Key Technical & Fundamental Takeaways Record-Breaking Run: Silver has surged another 4.25% today, hitting a fresh all-time high of $66.88. The Fundamental Driver: A “perfect storm” of falling real rates, structural supply deficits, and booming industrial demand (EVs/Solar) is fueling the rally. The Trend: Silver is now up a staggering 130% year-to-date in 2025. The

TL; DR summary: New Zealand GDP rebounded more than expected in Q3 Production-based GDP rose 1.1% q/q vs 0.9% forecast Expenditure-based GDP up 1.3% q/q, also beating estimates Annual-average growth remains negative NZD reaction modest, reflecting backward-looking nature of data The investingLive economic calendar gives both the expected and priors if you’d like to keep

The broader stock indices are continuing their tumble with the: S&P index -70 points or -1.03%. NASDAQ index -350 points or -1.52%. Dow industrial average is down -200 points at -0.41%. Russell 2000 is down 1% on the day Shares of Broadcom are continuing their run to the downside since announcing earnings on Thursday of

Key Technical Takeaways The Resistance Cluster: USDJPY is currently pinned against a critical resistance zone defined by the 100-hour MA (155.62) and the 4-hour 100-bar MA (155.675). The Foundation: The rally was triggered after buyers successfully defended a major swing support area between 154.33 and 154.472 during yesterday’s session and early Asian trading. The Bullish

The U.S. Treasury sold $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of WI level at the time of the auction 4.799% Tail -0.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.5 bps Bid to cover 2.67X vs 6 month average of 2.65X Dealers 12.57 vs 6 month average of 11.0% Directs 22.24% vs

In November, the US Energy Information Administration estimated domestic crude oil production at 13.862 million barrels per day. Not everyone believes it. Today the Dallas Fed released its latest survey of energy executives. It’s an anonymous survey so we don’t know who said what but this comment turned some heads: There is no way that

KEY POINTS: US unemployment rate surprises to the upside Higher probabilities we see another Fed rate cut sooner than expected The stock market remains supported by the Fed’s dovish reaction function US CPI coming up tomorrow FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We finally got the most recent US jobs report yesterday, and the data surprised to the downside.

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE +0.8% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% The overall market mood is a calmer one with US futures also holding slightly higher on the day thus far. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% as investors are resting on a steadier tone after the

Risk appetite continues to deteriorate in the stock market, led by some of the highest-flying tech names. It’s likely year-end profit taking but could also reflect some reconsiderations around the AI trader, particularly as Google releases Gemini 3.0 flash and it scores as well as some of the top-line models from others. AUD/USD is always

tradeCompass Key Price Levels for S&P 500 Futures, with orderFlow Intel This S&P 500 analysis focuses on how yesterday’s order flow structure continues to shape today’s trade dynamics. Rather than treating today as a clean reset, orderFlow Intel shows that the market is still working through an unfinished auction from the prior session. As a

Key Technical Takeaways Successful Defense: Gold buyers successfully defended the 100-hour moving average yesterday, using the dip as a buying opportunity to reignite the uptrend. Current Momentum: The precious metal is trading up roughly $37 (+0.85%) on the day at $4338.31, with intraday highs reaching $4349.50. Immediate Upside Targets: Bulls are now focused on breaking

Waller has taken a really bearish turn on the economy. The other Fed candidates are arguing for rate cuts based on productivity but he’s arguing for them based on a poor economy. 2026 could turn out to be a better year for economy, hopes that helps job market Inflation is above target but should come

The reversal in Oracle shares this year is one for the history books. The company was an AI high-flyer for much of the year in a March to $250 from $170. Then it had a spike for the ages in September after announcing earnings. If you ever needed a lesson on how quickly the AI

The UK CPI report here earlier today underwhelmed, missing on estimates as price pressures were softer than expected in November. That solidified the conviction for a BOE rate cut this week but also fanned the flames for a potentially quicker move in following that up for next year. As such, that’s putting pressure on the

U.S. stocks ended the day mostly lower, with a defensive tone creeping back into the market as investors remained selective and cautious. The Dow led the decline, weighed down by cyclical and industrial names, while small caps also underperformed, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around growth and rates. Tech held up better, helping the Nasdaq finish modestly

Fed Chair candidates are falling over themselves to explain how inflation really isn’t 2.8% y/y, as it was in the most-recent PCE report. They’re stripping out rent and portfolio management fees and tariffs to say that inflation is basically on target. “Tariffs are not a source of persistent inflation,” candidate Chris Waller said today. This

Prior was -1812K Gasoline +4808K vs +2062K exp Distillates +1712K vs +1178K exp There was a huge draw in the private data released yesterday, so ‘expectations’ were for something more-bullish than the consensus. Crude -9300K Gasoline -4800K Distillates +2500K As a result, we’re getting some selling pressure on oil after the data. This is an

Introduction: What Is Forex? Forex, short for foreign exchange, is the global market where currencies are traded. It is the biggest and most active financial market globally, with more than $7.5 trillion traded every day (Bank for International Settlements, 2022). Unlike equity markets that have specific opening and closing times, the forex market operates 24

It’s a tough time of year to try and make sense of market moves but I suspect we’re seeing profit taking and position squaring into year end. Some of the high-flying power-generation stocks are getting beaten up today and Oracle continues to crater. We also saw Tesla hitting all-time highs this week, which I suspect

Key Technical Takeaways Bearish Shift: The AUDUSD is undergoing a downside correction as sellers gain short-term market control. Critical Zone Breached: Price has fallen back below the historically significant 0.66247–0.6635 swing area on the 4-hour chart. Hourly Resistance Stacked: The 100 and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6644 are now acting as a dynamic ceiling for

Prior +3.6% Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.4% That is an unexpected miss, especially on the core estimate which is the lowest since January. This will just solidify a rate cut by the BOE for this week but also put pressure on perhaps more rate cuts to come if the central bank

KEY POINTS: The RBI decided to intervene after the recent selloff in the Indian Rupee The US unemployment rate surprised to the upside USDINR remains skewed to the upside, buyers will look for key technical breaks US CPI coming up tomorrow FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: We finally got the most recent US jobs report yesterday, and

The machine shown in this picture is probably the most-important one in the world. It’s from Dutch company ASML and it’s used to fabricate the most-precise computer chips. Last year, the US began restricting their use and export into China. Naturally, that caused some panic in Beijing and the country’s resources were marshalled at building

Headlines: UK November CPI +3.2% v +3.5% y/y expected British Pound drops across the board as UK inflation surprises to the downside GBP/USD on the rocks after softer UK inflation data today UK FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Soft UK CPI boosts the stock market, BoE rate cut bets Japan bond yields continue to surge higher

Consumer confidence jumps to 96.5 from 90.9 in Q3. That’s a good sign for spending in New Zealand and highlights upside risks to rates and the kiwi. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous driving subsidiary, is in early-stage discussions to raise more than $15bn in fresh capital at a valuation approaching $100bn, underscoring renewed investor confidence in the long-term commercial potential of robotaxi technology. The funding round is expected to be led by Alphabet itself, with participation from external investors, according to people familiar with

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a mix of performances across different sectors, with particular focus on fluctuations within the technology and consumer cyclical spaces. 📉 Technology Sector: The technology sector displays variegated movements. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) faces a significant drop of 2.82%, possibly driven by recent earnings or macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations.

Key Takeaways 100-Hour MA Breach: For the first time since late November, USDCAD buyers have pushed the price above the 100-hour moving average (1.3768), snapping a streak of 5 failed attempts. The Next Major Hurdle: The recovery is facing stiff resistance near the 1.3800 level and the falling 200-hour moving average (1.38055). Neutral Bias: While

KEY POINTS: Oil fell to the lowest level since 2021 yesterday following soft US jobs report A major breakdown was avoided as Trump ordered a total blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers Prices rose further this morning following the news that the US was reading new Russia sanctions if Putin rejected the peace deal GEOPOLITICAL

Today’s Japanese trade and investment data are reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan is poised to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike this week, as signs of economic recovery continue to build following last quarter’s contraction. Japan’s exports rose for a third consecutive month in November, climbing 6.1% year on year and comfortably

USD firmer into the NA session, supported by weaker UK inflation and higher US yields, with EURUSD edging lower to 1.1714, holding above 1.1700 and key midpoint support ahead of an ECB decision expected to leave rates unchanged with a data-dependent tone. USDJPY softer at 155.45, trading between the 4-hour 200-bar (155.265) and 100-bar (155.700)

Japanese trade and capex-indicative data (machine orders data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set.): Further on the trade data: Exports to China -2.4% year/year Exports to Asia +4.5% year/year Exports to US +8.8% year/year Exports to EU +19.6% year/year The exports numbers

Westpac Economics has pushed back against growing market talk of renewed tightening, arguing the Reserve Bank of Australia is more likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, even as inflation returns to target later next year. In contrast to calls from Citi and NAB for two rate hikes in 2026, and CBA’s forecast for a

Comments in an essay from Bostic: continues to view price stability as the most pressing risk facing FOMC it is unclear whether the labor market is significantly out of balance Expects inflation to remain above 2.5% even at the end of 2026. Sees little to suggest price pressures will dissipate before mid-to-late 2026 at the

In an earlier post I noted that U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered what he described as a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, sharply escalating Washington’s confrontation with President Nicolás Maduro’s government and injecting fresh geopolitical risk into global energy markets. In a post on Truth Social,

KEY POINTS: UK CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.5% expected UK Core CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.4% expected Food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcohol and tobacco made the largest downward contributions The pound dropped across the board as traders increased BoE rate cut bets The UK FTSE 100 surged The BoE is expected to cut by

China’s prolonged economic slowdown is emerging as a growing headwind for bulk commodities, with UBS and Commonwealth Bank both warning that iron ore prices face increasing downside risks as demand weakens and new supply comes online. Despite a resilient performance so far this year, iron ore prices are looking increasingly vulnerable. UBS highlights a deterioration

German DAX futures +0.2% French CAC 40 futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.3% This follows from the modest declines yesterday, with Wall Street also reflecting a more mixed picture. Tech shares were the ones leading the charge yesterday with the Nasdaq closing 0.2% higher but the Dow closed 0.6% lower instead. There’s still a lot

A lot of anticipation is riding on the BOJ this week with the Japanese central bank set to deliver one of, if not the last major key risk event for the year. A rate hike is well anticipated at this point as the BOJ looks to have won the battle in the first round against

Prior +2.1% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The important point of the release is that core annual inflation is seen steady at 2.4%, unchanged from October. The main sticking point in terms of inflation pressures is still Germany and that represents a headache for the ECB, with it being the region’s

Prior 88.1; revised to 88.0 Current conditions index 85.6 vs 85.8 expected Prior 85.6 Expectations index 89.7 vs 90.5 expected Prior 90.6; revised to 90.5 The headline reading is softer than estimated with the current conditions and expectations index also missing on estimates. The decline in German business sentiment towards the end of the year

KEY POINTS: The UK CPI data surprised to the downside across the board Traders are now betting on two more rate cuts in 2026 The BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow but could sound more dovish UK FTSE 100 surged on the soft inflation data as rate cuts boost the stock market

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 and 1.1750 levels. As things stand, the expiries are sandwiching the current spot price and so will have the potential to act as bookends to price action in the session

That figure is 10.4% higher year-on-year, with visitors from China even showing a marginal growth of 3% in November. For some context, the year-to-date visitor arrivals for Japan has breached 39 million in 2025 – well exceeding the total for 2024 already, which was 36.87 million. As a reminder, China and Japan are engaged in

The end of the year is often considered the ideal time to rebalance a portfolio, both from a tax perspective and because it is easier to assess the performance of assets relative to the target allocation and identify any resulting imbalances. But what if the idea was to build a portfolio from scratch based on

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as soon as this week that would accelerate the reclassification of cannabis under federal law and formally recognise its medical value for the first time, according to people familiar with the plans. The move would mark a significant shift in U.S. drug policy, though

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data surprised to the downside across the board weighing on the pound and boosting the UK stock market. The BoE is widely expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%, but following the soft employment

Japan must raise neutral rate of interest via fiscal policy, growth strategy If Japan’s neutral rate rises as a result of fiscal policy, it would be natural for BOJ to hike rates But for now BOJ should avoid premature rate hike, excessive monetary tightening Sanaenomics carries over elements of Abenomics but focuses more on strengthening

CIBC notes that the non-farm payrolls release yesterday reflected further softness in US labour market conditions. Adding that while payrolls gained by 64k in November, it comes after a sharp decline of 105k in October which effectively erases the gains from September. Besides that, the three-month average job growth has cooled further to 22k and

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Japan’s persistently weak yen is emerging as the decisive factor that could allow the Bank of Japan and the government to align behind a long-awaited rate hike this month, according to an analysis by Alicia Garcia Herrero (twitter @Aligarciaherrer) Despite concerns around U.S. tariffs and broader geopolitical risks, Japan’s economy has proved more resilient than

Morgan Stanley estimates that UK headline annual CPI will come in at 3.4% in November, with the core annual reading being at 3.3%. That’s slightly under the consensus estimate from analysts of 3.5% for the former and 3.4% for the latter. But with both numbers set to keep above 3%, the firm notes that it

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve could be more open to further interest-rate cuts next year than markets previously assumed, following this week’s policy easing and a notably cautious tone from Chair Jerome Powell on labour-market risks (for example: investingLive Americas market news wrap : US unemployment rate rises to four-year high). Josh Schiffrin, chief

USD/INR has plunged, with the rupee up around 1% after the central bank of India intervened by selling USD/INR into the forex market. more to comeI’ve been posting in recent days on the Indian rupee trading at fresh record lows, as a deteriorating global risk backdrop compounds persistent flow imbalances that continued to weigh heavily

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

I wrote about Comcast yesterday as it was one of the top-10 picks from Barron’s for 2026. It looks like the market is taking a closer look at the cable giant and liking what it sees. Shares are up 4.1% and it’s the best performer on the S&P 500 in an otherwise sluggish day. Some

India’s central bank is signalling that interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period, even as policymakers assess the potential growth impact from evolving U.S. trade arrangements. Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said recent projections suggest policy settings should remain low for a long period of time, according to comments

Economists have upgraded their outlook for Singapore’s economy in 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum this year, while continuing to expect monetary policy to remain on hold at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) next review in January. According to the MAS quarterly survey of forecasters, median growth expectations for 2025 have been lifted to 4.1%, a

Reserve Bank of India FX intervention to support the rupee Singapore central bank (MAS) survey shows stronger 2025 growth, policy seen on hold Singapore exports beat expectations as electronics and pharma lift NODX China slowdown raises downside risks for AUD and Australian assets Strong exports lift BoJ hike odds as Japan recovery gathers pace –

US November non-farm payrolls +64K vs +50K expected US Retail sales for October rises by 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI December 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate Fed’s Bostic warns against too much monetary policy easing New Zealand consumer confidence jumps in the fourth quarter Hassett jumps back into the lead as the

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) delivered a stronger-than-expected performance in November, reinforcing signs that the city-state’s trade cycle remains firmly in recovery mode as global demand stabilises. Official data released by Enterprise Singapore showed NODX rose 11.6% year on year, comfortably beating market expectations for a 7.0% increase. The headline gain was supported by both

New Zealand’s current account position deteriorated sharply in the September quarter, with the headline deficit blowing out to NZ$8.37bn, far wider than market expectations and a marked worsening from the prior quarter’s NZ$1.30bn shortfall. While the seasonally adjusted deficit was more modest at NZ$3.78bn, it still edged wider, underscoring ongoing external imbalance pressures in the

Silver prices have surged to fresh record highs, a dramatic reflection of evolving market dynamics that are pushing the industrial metal well beyond historical norms. In trading today, spot silver reached an intraday peak above US$65 per ounce, eclipsing previous records and marking one of the strongest rallies among commodities in 2025. The rally has

The betting market is almost certain the next Fed Chairman will be named Kevin, it’s just not sure which one. Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh appear to be the finalists based on Trump’s comments. There has been a push for current Fed Governor Chris Waller but that doesn’t appear to gaining traction. Yesterday, the odds

Key takeaways for the EURJPY technically Correction Mode: EURJPY has broken below the 100-hour (182.39) and 200-hour (181.87) moving averages. Risk Defined: Sellers finally have a clear resistance zone at 182.00–182.39 to lean against. Next Target: A sustained move lower targets the 180.08 support level. EURJPY’s historic rally: the backdrop The EURJPY has been trading

Ethereum Futures Technical Analysis – Bear Flag in Control, Key Junctions to Watch Key takeaways (2-minute read): Ethereum futures broke down from an ascending channel, activating a bear flag structure. Price rejected a retest of the former uptrend, reinforcing bearish control for now. A confirmed bullish reversal requires a clean breakout above the red channel.

Tesla is facing renewed regulatory scrutiny in California after an administrative law judge ruled that the company engaged in deceptive marketing practices related to its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver-assistance systems. The judge found that Tesla’s descriptions of the technologies could mislead consumers about their capabilities and recommended suspending the company’s license to sell

Via Reuters comes the report that import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest seaport in the United States, fell sharply in November as the impact of U.S. tariff policy rippled through global supply chains. The port reported an 11.5% year-on-year decline in imports, handling 406,421 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), after companies front-loaded

Trump is posting on his social media account. Verbatim: Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States

Tesla shares surged to a fresh all-time high as investors rallied around renewed optimism that the company is nearing a long-promised breakthrough in autonomous driving. The move lifted Tesla’s market capitalisation to around $1.63 trillion, cementing its position among the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies. The immediate catalyst was confirmation from CEO Elon Musk

The data from a private telegram channel. It seems many of the oil folks have shut up shop for the holidays, hence the delay in getting this data to you. — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading contender to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, but his candidacy is drawing mixed reactions within the Trump administration, according to POLITICO. Hassett, who currently leads the National Economic Council, is viewed by supporters as a respected economist

Japanese data is the focus of the calendar. The trade and machine orders info we’ll get today are not top-tier data, but its all goes into the mix. – The trade data is expected to be encouraging, showing strength in November better than that in October for both exports and imports. – Japan core machine

Nasdaq is planning to submit paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday in an application for 23-hour weekday trading, according to a Reuters report late yesterday. This pains me because it’s unhealthy for traders, and potentially the market. There is something to be said for the ability to stop and think at

ECB rate decision ahead as policy divergence narrows between the ECB and Fed The ECB rate decision later this week is widely expected to result in no change in policy, with markets viewing the central bank as already near the lower end of its easing cycle. Recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, as highlighted

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.2% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% The market mood is leaning towards the defensive side today, with watchful eyes on key US data later in the day. There is a lot of anticipation on the latest update/snapshot of the US economy, even

Summary of the comments from WH Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett:NEC Director Kevin Hassett said there is plenty of room to cut interest rates, arguing that US rates are out of touch with the rest of the world, even as he described the underlying jobs trajectory as solid, noting recent data were distorted by the government

Key bullet points for the USDINR India’s fundamentals remain a drag on the rupee, with flash PMIs falling to the lowest since February, muted inflation opening the door to further RBI cuts, and US-India trade talks lacking a near-term breakthrough. With USDINR at record highs, Fibonacci extensions are guiding upside targets, with key levels at

BOC Gov. Tiff Macklem is speaking at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montréal. Economic outlook and policy backdrop 2025 was defined by rising protectionism, particularly from the US, which has disrupted global trade and undermined trust in Canada’s largest trading relationship. Uncertainty remains elevated, especially from tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber, weighing

Key points AUDUSD remains range-bound between 0.6400 and 0.6700, with price currently trading near the upper end of the range. Buyers defended key support at 0.6617 and the 0.66247–0.6635 swing area, keeping the short-term bias modestly bullish. Failure to hold above this support zone would signal a failed breakout, likely leading to deeper corrective downside.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Fundamental backdrop: mixed US data weighs on the dollar The USDCAD moved lower following a heavy US data dump, with the October jobs report showing a decline, followed by a rebound in November, a pattern heavily distorted by the recent government shutdown. At the same time, October retail sales were unchanged at the headline level,

It’s been a long wait for the return of US economic data but we are finally here with November non-farm payrolls and October retail sales due at the bottom of the hour. The jobs report is the most up-to-date and the most meaningful. I wonder if the Fed got a nod that it was going

From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 16, down from 3.6 percent on December 11. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the contributions of consumer spending

The tone around the ceasefire talks in Ukraine genuinely appears to be improving. We’ve been here before so it’s tough to say whether this is real progress on yet-another headfake. Only time will tell but Trump’s comments today are encouraging: Good conversation with European leaders Long discussion, and things are seemingly going well Had a

The flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI data for December is out and shows weakness: Prior month manufacturing 52.2 Manufacturing flash PMI 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate Services PMI flash 52.9 versus 54.0 estimate. Prior month 54.1.. Composite index 53.0 versus 54.2 last month Below is a chart of the composite PMI compared to GDP

KEY POINTS: Expects new Fed chair announcement in early January US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs also expected in early January Says Warsh and Hassett both very qualified for the job Expects substantial drop in inflation in the first half of 2026 US-China relations remain positive US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, spoke in a Fox

Long stocks and gold are the most crowded trades according to BofA’s survey USDINR Technical Analysis: Key resistance reached, US NFP in focus next Eurozone October trade balance €18.4 billion vs €19.4 billion prior Germany December ZEW survey current conditions -81.0 vs -80.0 expected Major currencies little changed, eyes on US data UK December flash

Prior 51.3 Manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 50.4 expected Prior 50.2 Composite PMI 52.1 vs 51.6 expected Prior 51.2 These are nice beats, but the commentary isn’t as good. The agency cites lacklustre growth, worryingly widespread job losses and renewed upturn in selling price inflation across both goods and services. It keeps the BoE on track

September was 119K October was -105K (just released) Unemployment rate 4.6% vs 4.4% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.4% Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.7% vs 8.0% prior Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.6% expected Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.2 expected Change

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 copper price forecast, citing a lower likelihood that the United States will impose refined copper tariffs in the first half of the year, as affordability concerns take precedence despite ongoing supply tightness. In a note published Monday, the investment bank lifted its 2026 average price forecast to US$11,400 per

The latest Bank of America fund manager survey is out and it’s concerning news if you’re long stocks. Sentiment is overly bullish. The survey has been going since 1999 and the allocation to cash at 3.3% is the lowest ever. Take a look at the history here. We are now well below the “sell signal”

WTI crude is below the April 9 low of $55.12 as today’s rout extends. Oil is down $1.75 on the day at $55.08, which is the worst since April 2021. The market is sensing a growing chance of peace in Ukraine, something that will allow Russian oil to flow more freely. There are also persistent

KEY POINTS: USDINR reaches a new record high as the bearish INR trend persists The pair rallied into a key resistance zone where we have the 91.00 handle and the upper bound of the channel USD remains weak against major currencies India’s Flash PMIs ease further All eyes on the US NFP report today FUNDAMENTAL

Introduction Traders are bracing for what is arguably one of the most critical trading weeks of the year, filled with important macroeconomic data releases and policy announcements that will almost certainly trigger elevated volatility across major currency pairs, equities, and commodities. Global financial markets will have to digest a massive backlog of U.S. labour data,

Sector Overview The US stock market is showcasing a mixed bag today, with tech giants facing pressure while other sectors reveal brighter spots. Within the technology sector, notable players like Google (GOOGL) have slipped by 0.96%, reflecting broader concerns in internet and content information companies. However, Oracle (ORCL) has managed a slight gain of 0.28%,

Prior 53.6 Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 49.9 expected Prior 49.6 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expected Prior 52.8 After the downcast from the German numbers, this was well expected. Both the services and manufacturing prints are softer than estimated, pushing down overall activity in the euro area for December. That said, it still marks another

In life, no matter what we do, there always comes the inevitable moment of reckoning—a time when performance is measured, and results are tallied. It might be your boss during an annual performance review, your coach analysing your season’s stats, or a professor handing back an exam paper. In our case, it is our clients

The US business inventories and retail inventories ex-auto for September 2025 (old data) shows: Business inventories +0.2% versus 0.1% estimate Retail inventories ex-auto 0.0% versus 0.0% last month Details from the Census Bureau: Sales: $1,947.5B in September, unchanged vs August (±0.1%), but up 3.7% YoY, pointing to steady nominal demand despite slower monthly momentum. Inventories:

Ford Motor is taking a major step back from its electric-vehicle ambitions, announcing roughly US$19.5 billion in charges largely tied to its loss-making EV operations, as the automaker pivots toward hybrids, extended-range vehicles and conventional gasoline models amid weakening EV demand. The Wall Street Journal with the info. In brief: The impairment is among the

Retail Sales data for the month of October 2025 from the US Census Bureau Prior month retail sales (September) 0.2% revised to 0.1% Retail sales for the month of October 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate. Retail sales ex autos 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3% revised lower to 0.1% Retail sales ex autos and gas

Prior 1.2% HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim Prior +1.3% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation is seen slowing down from 1.9% to 1.7% in November, so that’s something to at least take note of. That said, the sticking point for inflation for the ECB is still very much the

As North America gets underway, the three major currency pairs are showing modest but important technical signals ahead of the US nonfarm payroll data which will be released at 8:30 AM. Also scheduled for release is US retail sales, and later the flash PMI data for the month of December. The jobs in retail sales

Early downside move tests key support The USDJPY moved lower during the Asia-Pacific session, briefly breaking below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 155.29. That downside probe echoed last Thursday’s price action, when the pair also slipped below the same moving average, only to quickly rotate higher. In that prior move, upside

With over 6 million users across more than 100 countries, RedotPay is disrupting traditional fintech by leveraging blockchain rails to deliver the best product experience to users globally Payment volume nearly tripled year-on-year with more than 3 million new users joining the platform in 2025 through November New investment led by Goodwater Capital, with participation

The United States has suspended a recently agreed technology partnership with Britain, injecting fresh uncertainty into the transatlantic relationship as Washington presses London for broader trade concessions beyond the tech sector. According to reporting by the Financial Times, the U.S. administration halted progress on the so-called Tech Prosperity Deal last week, despite the agreement having

The Indian rupee is set to open at fresh record lows, as a deteriorating global risk backdrop compounds persistent flow imbalances that continue to weigh heavily on the currency. Info via Reuters. One-month non-deliverable forward pricing suggests USD/INR will open in the 90.80–90.85 range, extending losses after the rupee closed at 90.73 on Monday. The

KEY POINTS: Long Mag 7 is the most crowded trade for 54% of participants Long gold takes the second spot at 29% Global investors are the most bullish in 3 and a half years due to “run it hot” macro and policy expectations Allocation to stocks and commodities at the highest since 2022 BofA says

US suspends UK tech deal amid wider trade tensions (earlier Financial Times report) Indian rupee fresh record lows on flow pressure CBA sees February RBA rate hike as growth runs hot. Citi & NAB also expect February hike. NAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended hold China eyes pragmatic

Prior -78.7 Economic sentiment 45.8 vs 38.7 expected Prior 38.5 The current conditions index might show a slight decline but there is a major beat on the expectations outlook. So, that really outweighs the headline reading here. ZEW notes that expectations have become more positive and that chances for a recovery of the economy are

Nasdaq is preparing to take a major step toward round-the-clock equity trading, as Wall Street accelerates plans to meet surging global demand for U.S. stocks, according to a Reuters exclusive. The exchange operator said it will submit paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to extend weekday trading hours to 23 hours

So, what’d I miss during the break? 😉 There was no shortage of action in markets in the past week, not least with the Fed delivering one final 25 bps rate cut to wrap up the year. Now, the race for Fed chair is also reportedly heating up with Kevin Warsh pipped to be the

Prior €19.4 billion; revised to €18.4 billion Compared to the month of October last year, exports to the US are seen down nearly 15% this October while imports are up just a little over 4%. That sees the trade surplus with the US narrow in October this year to €11.2 billion with it being €19.5

German DAX futures -0.6% UK FTSE futures -0.4% This mirrors the mood in US futures as well as carrying over the negative tone from Asia. The Nikkei closed down by 1.6% and S&P 500 futures are now down 0.6% on the day as tech shares continue to lag. Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% currently. Concerns

New Zealand’s government has signalled a prolonged period of fiscal strain, with updated forecasts showing no return to a budget surplus over the next five years, as Finance Minister Nicola Willis doubled down on spending restraint while acknowledging the economy’s fragile recovery. Speaking alongside the release of the half-year economic and fiscal update, Willis struck

Australia’s economy is increasingly exhibiting conditions consistent with further monetary tightening, leading Commonwealth Bank economists to forecast a 25 basis point Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February, despite market scepticism around near-term action. I posted earlier on another two calls for a February rate hike: Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026,

Prior 51.4 Manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs 48.1 expected Prior 47.8 Composite PMI 50.1 vs 50.3 expected Prior 50.4 It’s a polarising release with the French services sector slumping in December while the manufacturing sector posts a beat on activity. At the balance though, it still leads to a bit of a drag to the French

Major US stock indices are closing lower. The NASDAQ is down for the 3rd consecutive day. The Dow industrial average and the S&P indices are down for the 2nd consecutive day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average down 41.31 points or -0.09% at 48416.74 S&P index -10.89 points or -0.16% at

Prior 48.2 Services PMI 52.6 vs 53.0 expected Prior 53.1 Composite PMI 51.5 vs 52.4 expected Prior 52.4 This is in contrast to the better than expected French PMIs. In fact, the gains seen in the euro following the French release got erased. Overall, this doesn’t change anything for the ECB though. The central bank

It’s a quiet one so far today with the dollar holding steadier at the balance, after some struggles in the past week. A stronger Chinese yuan continues to act as a headwind for the greenback, with USD/CNY on the verge of 7.04 today. The onshore yuan is at its highest against the dollar since October

We’re seeing a more cautious mood ahead of European trading, with Asian stocks and US futures holding lower today. The Nikkei is down 1.3% after a more sluggish showing by tech shares in Wall Street yesterday. Nvidia might’ve ended up 0.7% higher but AI stocks in general continue to wobble in the early stages this

Australia’s private sector continued to expand in December, although momentum eased, according to the latest flash PMI data from S&P Global, pointing to a softer but still resilient end to 2025 for the economy. The headline S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.1 in December from 52.6 in November, marking the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

New Zealand’s Debt Management Office (NZDMO) has trimmed its near-term bond issuance plans, offering modest relief to the government bond market even as borrowing needs remain elevated over the medium term. In an update released Tuesday, the NZDMO said it will issue NZ$35 billion of government bonds in the 2025/26 fiscal year, down NZ$3 billion

Prior 5.0% Employment change -16k vs -67k expected Prior -22k Average weekly earnings +4.7% vs +4.4% 3m/y expected Prior +4.8%; revised to +4.9% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.6% vs +4.5% 3m/y expected Prior +4.6%; revised to +4.7% November payrolls change -38k Prior -32k; revised to -22k The jobless rate in the UK continues to

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries do not tie to any technical significance but offers up the potential to act as a magnet for price action, at least before we get to key US data

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, we’ll get the Flash PMIs for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. The data is unlikely to change much for the respective central banks though. In fact, the BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%. They will likely tread carefully from

New Zealand November Food Price Index -0.4% m/m prior -0.3% for the y/y, a rise of 4.4% Food prices make up nearly 19 percent of the consumer price index in NZ. — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New

U.S. lawmakers have delayed progress on a long-awaited crypto market structure bill, pushing any formal legislative action into next year and dealing a setback to an industry seeking clearer federal oversight. The Senate Banking Committee confirmed it will not hold a markup hearing on market structure legislation before the end of the year, deferring debate

National Australia Bank has struck a more hawkish tone on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s outlook, forecasting two 25 basis point rate hikes in 2026, beginning in February and followed by a second increase in May, diverging sharply from current market pricing. Persistent inflation risks and resilience in parts of the domestic economy is seen

This Silver technical analysis combines price action, VWAP behavior, and proprietary orderFlow Intel decision support to assess whether the recent consolidation is a pause before continuation or a warning sign of trend exhaustion. While many traders focus only on candles and indicators, orderFlow Intel looks beneath the surface, helping identify whether buying and selling pressure

As always, the screenshot has what’s on the data agenda today. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is

China is likely to set a pragmatic and flexible GDP growth target for 2026, with policymakers seeking to balance stabilisation objectives against mounting external and domestic pressures, according to commentary and analyst assessments following the Central Economic Work Conference. This follows lacklustre data yesterday, but a still solid yuan: China yuan hits 14-month high even

Trump on Ukraine ceasefire: I think we’re closer now than we have ever been Canada November CPI 2.2% y/y vs 2.3% expected US December NAHB housing market index 39 vs 39 expected NY Fed manufacturing index for December -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate. Fed’s Williams: Labor market risks have risen as risk to inflation have eased

If you followed the Barron’s playbook last year, you’re probably sitting pretty right now. The publication has just released their scorecard for their 2025 stock picks, and the results are good. In a market environment that had plenty of chop, their basket of 10 stocks delivered a total return of 27.9%, nearly doubling the S&P

If you’ve been watching the Canadian curve steepen with bets on Bank of Canada hikes, CIBC has a message for you: Not so fast. Following the November CPI release earlier today, CIBC’s Andrew Grantham is out with a note pouring cold water on the recent hawkish repricing in the market. While headline inflation held steady

Japan’s private sector ended 2025 on a firmer footing, with business activity continuing to expand despite softer momentum and persistent weakness in manufacturing, according to the latest flash PMI data from S&P Global. The headline Flash Japan Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.5 in December from 52.0 in November, remaining above the 50 threshold

Australian consumer confidence fell sharply in December, reversing the tentative improvement seen the previous month, as renewed concerns over inflation and interest rates weighed on household sentiment, according to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey. The headline Consumer Sentiment Index fell 9.0% to 94.5, unwinding much of November’s 12.8% surge and pushing the index back below

The euro could be poised for further gains in the near term if European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde refrains from pushing back forcefully against market pricing for higher interest rates at this week’s policy meeting, according to Morgan Stanley. In a note, the bank’s FX strategists said the absence of clear resistance from ECB

The NZDUSD moved higher last week, and in the process extended above its 100-day moving average, signaling an improvement in the near-term technical picture. The upside push carried the pair toward the lower boundary of a key swing area between 0.5830 and 0.5844, an area that has acted as resistance in the past. Sellers leaned

The AUD/USD currency pair faced immediate selling pressure during early Asian-Pacific trading today, drifting lower to test the resolve of the bulls. This decline brought price action directly into a critical technical convergence point: the rising 200-hour Moving Average (MA), currently located at 0.66366. For technical traders, this moving average serves as a vital barometer

Bitcoin is down nearly 2% today in the first dip below $87K since December 2. Bitcoin has been a good proxy for risk assets this year but lately has underperformed that metric. If it re-converges, then it points to downside risks for the Nasdaq. There is also an argument that they should disconnect anyway, as

The New York Fed Pres. Williams is speaking and says: Very supportive” of the U.S. central bank’s decision to cut interest rates last week Expects coming job data will show gradual cooling Too early to say what the Fed will need to do in January Strong markets are part of the reason why the economy

Gold has been an incredible ride this year, up 64% year-to-date. Silver has nearly doubled that return and gold equities are up a massive 130%. Naturally, after a run like that, the “take profit” crowd is starting to get loud. However, Scotiabank released a note this morning titled “Here’s Why We Don’t Give Up on

Musk weighing in on nuclear reactors in a tweet: The Sun is an enormous, free fusion reactor in the sky. It is super dumb to make tiny fusion reactors on Earth. Even if you burned 4 Jupiters, the Sun would still round up to 100% of all power that will ever be produced in the

Supported rate cuts among shifting balance of risks Sees future inflation risks as lower than they were The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a cut next month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 is up 0.3% shortly after the open and there is some good news is in the seasonals. As Ryan Detrick at Carson highlights, the second half of December is when Santa has come, with the average of the past 75 years a 1.4% gain. This article was written by Adam Button at

The candidacy of Kevin Hasset ” has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of President Donald Trump,” according to CNBC citing sources familiar. The concern is that he’s too close to the President. Those people better be careful what they wish for because Kevin Warsh comes with his own set of

New Zealand’s services sector slipped deeper into contraction in November, according to the latest BNZ–BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). The PSI fell to 46.9 in November, down 1.5 points from October and marking the weakest reading since May 2025. The result remains well below the long-run survey average of 52.8, reinforcing the sector’s ongoing

Japan Tertiary Industry Index October +0.9% m/m (beats expected of +0.2% & prior +0.3%) Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise Indian rupee hits record low, downtrend remains despite likely RBI intervention China yuan hits 14-month high even as weak consumer demand clouds economic growth outlook

The broader U.S. stock market is moving lower, with the NASDAQ leading the downside as selling pressure builds across growth and technology shares. The recent pullback follows failed attempts to sustain record highs and reflects a market that is becoming more technically vulnerable in the short term. NASDAQ technical outlook: sellers regain control The NASDAQ

Japan’s corporate sentiment remained broadly stable in the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan survey, with large manufacturers’ sentiment holding steady and business conditions across the services sector remaining elevated, even as profit expectations weakened and labour shortages persisted. The headline large manufacturers’ index came in at +15, matching both the previous quarter and market expectations.

Gold prices are exhibiting renewed bullish momentum, once again testing major resistance zones and approaching record highs. As price action intensifies, understanding the key technical levels defining this structure is essential for navigating potential breakouts or rejections. Watch my latest technical analysis breakdown below for a detailed look at the current price structure, the crucial

Prior was 38 Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 26 vs 26 prior The market is getting a sense of where Fed rates will bottom and it looks like US 30-year yields will finish the year where they started. In short, there is no help coming for the US housing market.

Does not think higher goods inflation is mostly from tariffs, but acknowledges that he does not have a full explanation for it Goods inflation could be settling in at a higher level than was normal before the pandemic, but that will be offset by housing disinflation Ex housing and non-market based items, core PCE inflation

China November 2025 house prices China New Home Prices -0.39% m/m prior –0.45% for the y/y, -2.4% (prior -2.2%) Used Homes Prices -0.66% m/m prior –0.66% — I seem to write something like this every month … This is a self feeding vicious cycle. Why buy a home when the price will soon fall? The

KEY POINTS: GBPUSD keeps the bullish trend going as it bounces from a major trendline The BoE set to cut the Bank Rate by 25 bps on Thursday The Fed delivered on expectations, but Powell sounded more dovish US NFP and CPI in focus FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The USD has been weakening across the board

The USDCAD is little changed in up and down trading to start the new trading week. BoC Decision: Last week the BOC held rate at 2.25% as resilience replace recession fears Last week, in its final policy decision of 2025, the Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25%, signaling

Prior was +18.7 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates only, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1739 USD/JPY 155.88 GBP/USD 1.3379 USD/CHF 0.7961 USD/CAD 1.3770 AUD/USD 0.6643 NZD/USD 0.5798

Sector Overview The stock market today illustrates a vibrant story with the semiconductor sector taking center stage. Leading the charge, Nvidia (NVDA) shines with an impressive 1.22% gain. Fellow semiconductor giant Micron Technology (MU) also experiences substantial upward momentum, boasting a 3.22% rise. This surge reflects a renewed investor confidence in semiconductor stocks, propelled by

Prior month 18.7 Current month (December) -3.90 Estimate 10.0 NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index – December Overview Business activity declined slightly in December, following two months of expansion. Headline general business conditions index fell to -3.9, down sharply from last month’s high, turning negative again. New orders and shipments: New orders were steady, with

Policy is well positioned for what lies ahead Sees tariffs as a one-off price adjustment, not spilling into broader inflation Sees inflation at 2.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 Projects jobless rate will come down over the next few years Expecst 2026 GDP to hit 2.25%, well above 2025 rate Labor market risks have

KEY POINTS: USD/CAD is approaching a key swing level at 1.3725 The BoC shifted to a stronger neutral stance, but didn’t validate rate hike bets The Fed delivered on expectations, but Powell sounded more dovish Focus on Canada CPI, US NFP and US CPI FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The USD has been weakening across the board

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EURUSD Technical Analysis: ECB to hold rates steady, traders focus on US NFP and CPI GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Focus on key UK and US data this week for the next direction Dubai Will Host Its First-Ever Trading Festival alongside iFX EXPO Market outlook for the week of 15th-19th December USD/CAD keeps on falling on divergent

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The USD is lower to start the new trading week – a week that has a number of different central bank decisions as well as key catch up economic data from the US including retail sales, CPI, and US employment. In the video above, I will take a look at the 3 major currency pairs

Kuwait’s Oil Minister Tareq Al-Roumi said the recent fall in oil prices had come as a surprise, describing the move as a “sudden drop” after expectations that prices would at least hold steady. Speaking to reporters after chairing the 115th ministerial meeting of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO) on Sunday, Al-Roumi said Kuwait views a

Prior was 2.2% Inflation m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% prior BOC core 2.9% vs 2.9% prior BOC core m/m -0.1% vs +0.6% prior Core CPI +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% prior CPI median +2.8% vs +2.9% expected CPI trim +2.8% vs +2.9% expected CPI common 2.8% vs 2.7% prior Ex gasoline +2.6% vs +2.6% prior This is

New Zealand’s near-term growth outlook has been downgraded in the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts, reinforcing a softer trajectory for the NZD as yield support erodes. GDP growth for the year to March 2026 is now seen at just 0.9%, reflecting a weaker starting point following a June-quarter contraction and continued soft demand signals from business

Dubai is about to change the rhythm of the trading year. For the first time, The Trading Festival will take place alongside the iFX EXPO! A high-energy event built for traders who want to start 2026 ahead of the curve. Running 10–12 February 2026 the Festival lands in the middle of the region’s busiest financial

KEY POINTS: The Fed delivers on expectations, but Powell sounds more dovish The ECB is expected to keep everything unchanged as they maintain a neutral stance EURUSD extends above a key swing level, opening the door for new highs Focus centres on US NFP and CPI reports this week FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The USD has

It will be a busy week with plenty of economic events to watch. Monday brings inflation data from Canada, while the U.S. releases the Empire State manufacturing index. On Tuesday, the U.K. will publish the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs will be released

China’s property investment plummeted to a 15.9% year-on-year decline in the first 11 months, a widening drop from the previous period. Property sales and new construction starts also continued to decrease, alongside a significant fall in funds raised by developers. New Construction Starts showed at –20.5% Y/Y Fixed-Asset Investment: –2.6% Y/Y Property Investment: –15.9% Y/Y

Citi has shifted to a notably more hawkish outlook on Australian monetary policy, now forecasting two 25 basis point rate increases in 2026, beginning as early as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first policy meeting of the year on February 3, followed by a second hike in May. Info via an Australian Financial Review report.

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KEY POINTS: Gold remains supported amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function Short-term direction to be decided by the key US data this week Strong data likely to put pressure on gold, weak data to support it FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been supported recently by the more dovish than expected Fed Chair Powell’s tone at the

Japan Tertiary Industry Index October +0.9% m/m beats expected of +0.2% & prior +0.3% USD/JPY has hit a new session low around 151.21. — The Japan Tertiary Industry Index measures monthly changes in output across Japan’s service sector, which accounts for roughly 70% of the economy. Compiled by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman said the economic outlook has evolved broadly in line with the Monetary Policy Committee’s expectations, with signs continuing to emerge that growth is recovering. Breman reiterated that the forward track for the Official Cash Rate (OCR), as published in the November Monetary Policy Statement, still implies a small

Futures rollover is the process by which traders exit positions in a soon-to-expire contract and re-establish them in the next active contract month. This is particularly important in U.S. equity index futures: including the S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ), Dow Jones (YM) and Russell 2000 (RTY) which trade on fixed expiration schedules. These contracts

The Indian rupee weakened to a fresh record low on Monday despite apparent intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), underscoring persistent pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and adverse global financial conditions. The rupee fell as far as 90.56 per dollar, its weakest level on record, before paring some losses to trade around

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Swiss PPI and the Eurozone Industrial Production. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted. As a reminder, the

UK home asking prices fell by more than is typical for the time of year in early December, according to property website Rightmove, highlighting a subdued housing market around last month’s government budget. Rightmove said average asking prices for newly listed homes dropped 1.8% month-on-month in the four weeks to December 6, a steeper fall

KEY POINTS: Japanese Yen is the strongest major currency today Better than expected Tankan data added support for the rate hike BoJ wage growth assessment was positive The market is pricing an 83% probability of a BoJ rate hike on Friday US NFP and CPI likely to steal the show FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The USD

OPTION EXPIRIES: EUR/USD 1.1600 (EUR 6.15 bn) USD/JPY 156.50 (US$ 1.54 bn) 156.00 (US$ 1.06 bn) 155.00 (US$ 914.02 mn) GBP/USD 1.3500 (GBP 1.14 bn) 1.3150 (GBP 1.03 bn) USD/CHF 0.8100 (US$ 890.42 mn) 0.8000 (US$ 355.00 mn) 0.7950 (US$ 410.69 mn) USD/CAD 1.4010 (US$ 515.94 mn) AUD/USD 0.6650 (AUD 1.06 bn) 0.6565 (AUD 843.74

Key Takeaways for S&P 500 Prop Traders Today Market Context: S&P 500 futures (ES) and Micro E-minis (MES) are stabilizing following the high-volume selloff on December 12. orderFlow Intel: On the bigger view of the daily timeframe, our proprietary sentiment score currently sits at -3 (Mild Bearish), suggesting the market has accepted lower prices rather

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Australia’s Fortescue has agreed to acquire the remaining 64% stake in Alta Copper, valuing the Toronto-listed copper developer at C$139 million (US$101 million), as it steps up its exposure to the copper market. Fortescue, via its Nascent Exploration unit, is offering C$1.40 per share in cash, representing a 14.8% premium to Alta Copper’s last closing

China’s economy showed signs of stabilisation and gradual improvement in November, but authorities warned that external headwinds and persistent domestic imbalances continue to weigh on the outlook, signalling a readiness to step up policy support. Speaking after the release of November activity data, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said economic conditions

Over the weekend two assholes shot and killed 16 people at Bondi Beach in Sydney. The beach is a source of joy and celebration for Australians. Not this weekend though. Sydney’s Jewish community were celebrating the first day of Hanukkah. Peacefully. A father and son pair of terrorists then shot and killed at least 16

China’s onshore yuan strengthened to its firmest level in more than a year on Monday, even as fresh economic data underscored the challenge policymakers face in reviving domestic demand and rebalancing the world’s second-largest economy. The yuan rose (USD/CNY lower) to 7.0510 per dollar, its strongest level since October 8, 2024, supported by steady official

China Vanke fails to win approval to delay $284 million bond payment. China Vanke, one of the country’s largest state-backed property developers, said in a Hong Kong stock exchange filing on Monday that it failed to secure bondholder approval to delay a bond payment due the same day. The rejection followed a three-day vote that

Ukraine has signalled a major shift in its war aims, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offering to abandon Kyiv’s long-held ambition of joining NATO as peace talks with U.S. envoys showed signs of progress in Berlin. Zelenskiy held more than five hours of discussions on Sunday with U.S. representatives, including Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared

Japanese firms cited easing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and resilient demand in high-tech sectors as key factors supporting business sentiment, according to comments from a senior Bank of Japan official on the December Tankan survey. The BOJ official said companies pointed to a smaller-than-feared impact from U.S. tariffs, improved cost pass-through, and robust demand

iRobot, the maker of Roomba robot vacuums, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after reaching a restructuring agreement that hands control of the company to its main supplier and lender, Shenzhen Picea Robotics. The Massachusetts-based company filed in Delaware on December 14. Under the plan, Shenzhen Picea will receive 100% of the equity in the

The Japanese yen has begun to recover from initial post-data weakness following the release of the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan survey and subsequent comments from a BOJ official, as markets increasingly lean toward the possibility of a policy rate hike later this week. The Tankan survey showed corporate sentiment holding up better than expected,

Kevin Hassett, President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, pushed back on concerns that he would compromise Federal Reserve independence if appointed as the next Fed chair. Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Hassett said the president would exert no influence over interest-rate decisions under his leadership, stressing that policy would remain driven by

China’s finance ministry said it plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds next year, with proceeds earmarked to support key national strategies and security-related initiatives. In a statement released on Saturday, the ministry said funds will also be used to finance large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs, following a meeting to implement decisions

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has filed civil proceedings in the High Court against ASB Bank, alleging breaches of core obligations under the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Act. The RBNZ said the breaches date back to at least December 2019 and relate to failures to meet fundamental compliance requirements under

South Korea will extend its bond market stabilisation programmes through next year, as authorities seek to contain financial market risks stemming from shifting monetary policy conditions at home and abroad, as well as rising government bond issuance. The Financial Services Commission (FSC) said on Monday that bond and short-term money market stabilisation funds totalling 37.6

It’s a very active session on the event calendar, notably: Bank of Japan Tankan Economic activity data from China for November, including industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate a senior Reserve Bank of Australia official is speaking You can see in the screenshot below what is expected for the releases. Taking what I have

Weekly Price Action Crude oil futures settled the week on a soft note, closing at $57.44, down $0.16 or -0.28% for the day. For the week, the commodity saw significant selling pressure: Weekly Change: Down -4.54%, a decline of $3.12. The Highs: The week’s high was reached on Monday at $60.30. The Lows: Sellers pushed

Bullish Momentum Extends for a Third Week The AUDUSD moved higher for the third consecutive week, extending to its highest level since September 17th. This upside momentum began after the pair bottomed on November 21 near the high of a swing area between 0.6407 and 0.6424. During this run, the pair successfully cleared a series

Stock Market Wrap-Up: Tech Sector Tumbles, Dow Hangs On WSJ: Trump leaning toward Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed Crude oil settling lower by 0.28% European indices close lower but not bad relatively speaking Tech Wreck: Stocks continue to tumble with the NASDAQ now down -1.78% Fed’s Hammack: Balancing both sides of

A Week of Two Halves The USDJPY has settled the North American session marginally higher on the day, capping off a week defined by up-and-down volatility. The Lows: Sellers controlled the early action, pushing the price to a weekly low of 154.89 during Monday’s session. The Highs: Buyers fought back mid-week, driving the pair to

End of Day Market Summary: Tech Sector Weighs on Wall Street US stocks closed lower to end the trading week, as a sharp selloff in the technology sector dragged down the broader market. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to secure a gain for the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq succumbed to profit-taking

In an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal, President Trump revealed he is leaning toward nominating either former Fed governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that his choice must be willing to lower interest rates and consult with him on monetary policy.

A Strong 3-Week Recovery The NZDUSD is up for the third week in a row after bottoming on November 21 at 0.55758. The move to the upside has taken the pair to a high this week of 0.5830, representing a significant recovery over the last 16 trading days: Price Change: +254 pips Percentage Change: +4.56%

SNB Policy: Rates on Hold, “Expansive” Stance Remains The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept rates unchanged earlier this week at 0.0%. Following the decision, comments from SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel—combined with technical resistance—helped push the USDCHF lower (strengthening the CHF). Key Takeaways from Chairman Schlegel: Policy Stance: Schlegel stressed that the current stance remains “expansive”

Leaked internal benchmarks for GPT-5.2 “Thinking” have been posted by Sam Altman, and quite frankly, the numbers are ridiculous. We aren’t talking about incremental gains here. For some reference: AIME 2025: 100.0%. It solved it. This is a big math test and it means that competition math is effectively “completed” for this model. ARC-AGI-2: This

Rate cuts by year-end Fed 2026: 54 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE 2026: 61 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC 2026: 25 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB 2026: 10 bps (100% probability of no

With the Dow industrial average down -0.47%, the S&P down -1.36% and the NASDAQ index down -2.0%, the European declines today are modest. The UK’s FTSE 100 led the declines, likely weighed down by earlier reports that the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in October. A snapshot of the closing levels shows the: European Market Close

Here is a snapshot of the US stock market today, Friday, December 12, 2025, highlighting the “Tech Wreck” narrative driving the major declines you are seeing. Market Summary: The Great Rotation Intensifies The divergence in the market has widened significantly today. Investors are aggressively rotating out of high-flying technology and AI stocks—sparked by disappointments from

An earthquake shook up the Pacific coast of Japan approximately 130 km NE of Kuji. There is no damage expected but a tsunami warning has been issued. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The stock market today paints a diverse picture, with tech giants and semiconductor players experiencing contrasting fates. While stalwart technology names remain largely stable, the semiconductor sector displays a mixed performance, suggesting a fluctuating narrative within a crucial industry. 🔍 Sector Overview Technology & Software: Leading tech stock Microsoft (MSFT) modestly declined by 0.30%, maintaining

The price of silver is sprinting to yet another record, surging approximately $2.00 (3.40%) on the day. This latest move caps a historic run for the metal, which is now up over 120% year-to-date. Silver’s explosive move to over $64.00 per ounce in 2025 is being driven by a “perfect storm” of five fundamental factors:

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is giving her perspective this morning following Wednesday’s split FOMC decision. While the committee voted to lower rates by 25 basis points, the decision was far from unanimous, highlighting a deepening divide among policymakers regarding the path forward for inflation and the labor market. The Split Decision: A Rare 9-to-3

KEY POINTS: The Fed delivered on expectations, but Powell sounded dovish US-India trade talks concluded on a positive note, although there wasn’t any major breakthrough India’s Chief Economic Adviser sees a deal now closer than ever and could be reached by March Nifty 50 rises back above the key 25,900 level, shifting the short-term bias

Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed President) Summary: Schmid, another dissenter, takes a hawkish stance driven by persistent inflation concerns. He views the economy as having momentum and the job market as balanced, which contrasts with the idea that employment is at risk. His primary worry is that inflation remains “too hot,” and he questions whether

Order flow perspective as price tests a key downside level As market rotation may be intensifying and silver, the new black in metals (for quite some time now) skyrockets to a new high (don’t forget my long term target for silver), I wanted to access investingLive’s orderFlow Intel to see if the early selling today

Fed’s Goolsbee is speaking on CNBC and further explaining his decision to keep rates unchanged at the reason FOMC rate decision where the Fed decided to cut rates by 25 basis points.. He was 1 of 2 dissenters who voted for no change in policy. Fed’s Miran voted for a larger 50 basis point cut.

The Great Rotation Continues The rotation in the US stock market is gaining momentum today, creating a tale of two markets. On one side, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading higher, finding support from major industrial and cyclical stocks that are attracting fresh capital. On the other side, the big technology heavyweights that have

The USDCAD saw a slew of economic data come out earlier today, painting a stronger-than-expected picture for the Canadian economy. Building permits for October were much stronger than expectations, surging 14.9% versus the forecasted -0.9% decline. Additionally, Capacity Utilization for the 3rd quarter came in at 78.5% (versus 77.6% revised from the last quarter), and

In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK GDP, although we will also get the final inflation readings for Germany, France and Spain. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. The UK October GDP is expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% prior, while the Y/Y estimate

Currency and Bond Market Overview The US Dollar is trading marginally higher today, stabilizing after two days of declines. Treasury yields have also ticked up to start the North American session, with the 10-year yield rising 3.7 basis points, retracing a similar fall from last week. The Japanese Yen and Central Bank Watch USD/JPY: The

KEY POINTS: India’s inflation rate Y/Y increased to 0.71% vs 0.70% expected in November The prior release saw inflation falling to a record low of 0.25% The RBI’s inflation target is 4% with a +/-2% tolerance band Inflation remains far below the central bank’s target INFLATION REPORT: India’s inflation rate increased to 0.71% in November

KEY POINTS: The Fed delivered on expectations cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cuts Fed Chair Powell sounded dovish by downplaying inflation risk and emphasising labour market weakness Gold broke out of the two-week long consolidation and extended the gains as momentum increased FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold finally broke out

After the fireworks from the Australian jobs report yesterday, the schedule for the Friday Asian session (Thursday evening US time) is looking decidedly thin. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel for data, so don’t expect too many idiosyncratic catalysts to drive the majors. The action kicks off early in the session at 02:00

India’s inflation rate increases to 0.71% in November, but the Rupee continues to bleed Interest rate expectations turn more hawkish for most major central banks except the Fed Gold extends gains after key technical breakout, putting all-time highs in sight Nifty 50 recovers some losses on dovish Powell, but it’s not out of the woods

KEY POINTS: UK GDP fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 The 0.1% fall in the three months to October 2025 was the first three monthly fall in real GDP since December 2023 GDP in October is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% British Pound weakened following the GDP release GDP REPORT:

OPTION EXPIRIES: EUR/USD 1.1800 (EUR 737.28 mn) 1.1755 (EUR 565.70 mn) 1.1700 (EUR 664.57 mn) 1.1600 (EUR 935.93 mn) USD/JPY 155.00 (US$ 1.52 bn) GBP/USD 1.3415 (GBP 421.17 mn) 1.3250 (GBP 781.13 mn) USD/CHF 0.8000 (US$ 350.67 mn) 0.7700 (US$ 300.00 mn) USD/CAD 1.3940 (US$ 600.00 mn) 1.3800 (US$ 652.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.6650 (AUD 643.09

It is two days after the FOMC rate decision where the voting members decided by a 9-3 vote to cut rates by 25 basis points with 2 voting to keep rates unchanged and 1 (Miran) voted for a 50 basis point cut. Miran. Fed’s Goolsbee and Paulson are out with comments as to their choices

When Mark Carney pulled off an improbable election win this year, he didn’t earn a majority in parliament. That means his government could fall at any time, but he came very close. The Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a 172 seat majority. In early November, Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor

Trump on Venezuela: It’s going to be starting on land pretty soon Trump: Probably only one winner in AI, China or the USA Japan October industrial production +1.5% y/y vs +1.6% prelim Canada’s Carney inches closer to a majority as Conservative switches parties Magnitude 6.7 earthquake leads to 1m tsunami in Japan GPT-5.2 is looking

The major U.S. equity indices finished the session mixed, reflecting a sharp divergence between traditional blue-chip strength and renewed anxiety in high-growth technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed at fresh record highs, supported by strength in industrials, financials, and defensive sectors. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the

This is something of a formality but the Federal Reserve board of governors has input on the regional Presidents. In any case, there was unanimous approval of all of them for five year terms. Now this could have been more contentions if Trump was able to stack the governors, who then could have stacked the

Will make a signing related to AI Forget trying to get approval for 50 different states Sacks: Order gives tools to push back on most onerous state regulations We are taking steps for a single national standard on AI The idea of dominance is that AI will be iterative, so the latest generation of AI

Prior was +2.0% Prelim was +1.6% Capacity utilization +3.3% vs +2.5% prelim Japanese factory data this week has been firm, showing that the trade war isn’t a problem so far. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi see exploded volumes on everything from Fed rates to geopolitical conflicts, a recent incident involving the Ukraine war highlights a critical vulnerability in the system. On November 15, a niche market on Polymarket regarding the Russian advance on the town of Myrnohrad exposed the pitfalls of relying on

The US dollar is down on most fronts this year but it came after years of gains. The team at Scotiabank says don’t get too comfortable with USD longs as the worst is yet to come. In their Focus On 2026 outlook, Scotia’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret are sticking to their guns: they see

Major stock indices end mixed as Dow and S&P hit new records.NASDAQ falls on tech weakness Federal Reserve announces reappointment of regional Presidents Silver Skyrockets to Record Highs Over $64; Gold Chases $4,300 WH Trump on Fed: More should be done. The US treasury auctioned $22B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of

It’s a strong day for Japanese stocks as they ratchet higher to close out the week. The Nikkei 225 is up 1.5% and threatening the December high. It’s a quick bounce back after the risk rout in Asia yesterday. The market has been trading sideways for the past six weeks after a sharp rise in

The US is clearly trying to provoke some kind of conflict, if not a war. Trump wants regime change in Venezuela for some reason. That said, Trump likes to make threats so he could be trying to bluff Maduro into leaving the country. Yesterday, the US seized an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude. On Ukraine,

Trump news today: Administration sanctions Maduro’s nephews and 6 ships carrying Venezuelan oil Bessent commented that Maduro group in criminal associations are flooding the US with drugs that is poisoning the American people Maduro and cronies have a choice: stop the drug trafficking stop the corruption, stop the dictatorship and leave the country. ON Ukraine:

The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773% The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774% The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time “report card” on the market’s appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free

Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%. Current Market Snapshot The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve

Key Takeaways: GDPNow Upgrade: The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 2025 GDP estimate to 3.6% (up from 3.5%). Trade to the Rescue: A surge in net exports offset weaker government spending and private investment numbers. Fed Optimism: Federal Reserve officials revised their 2026 GDP growth projections sharply higher to 2.3%. Productivity Boom: Chair Powell points

The calendar is looking a bit top-heavy for the Thursday session in Asia. While we have some Japanese flow data and a check-in on the UK housing market, the main event is inarguable — the Australian labor market report. We kick things off at 2145 GMT with New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for Q3. The prior

As expected, the FOMC pulled the trigger on a 25 basis point cut today, bringing the Fed Funds target range down to 3.50% – 3.75%. Looking ahead, the market sees a pause in January followed by a slow grind lower. Here is the clean breakdown of the implied probabilities: January 28 meeting Pricing: -5.5 bps

Sector Overview The US stock market painted a mixed picture today. Leading the charge was the financial sector, with notable gains seen in Visa, up by 1.42%, and JPMorgan Chase holding steady. Meanwhile, the technology sector faced headwinds, particularly within semiconductors. Stocks like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices plunged by 2.15% and 2.63% respectively, contributing

SNB Holds Rates at 0.00% as Inflation Forecasts Edge Lower Key Takeaways (Neutral to Dovish Tilt): Policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, with the SNB reiterating readiness to intervene in FX markets when necessary. Inflation forecasts trimmed across 2026–2027, reinforcing subdued price pressures and a low-inflation environment. Economic outlook improves slightly, supported by lower U.S. tariffs

Key Takeaways U.S. yields continue to fall after the Fed’s rate cut, reinforcing a dovish market tone and weighing heavily on the USD. EURUSD extends higher, breaking multiple technical resistance levels, including the Oct. 17 swing high and the 61.8% retracement. USD broadly weaker, down against every major currency except AUD; EUR is one of

Australia November employment -21.3K vs +20.0K expected Mexico approves tariffs as high as 50% taiff on Chinese and Asian imports UK RICS house price survey -16 vs -21 expected New Zealand Q3 manufacturing sales +1.1% vs -2.9% prior Japan Q4 business survey index +4.7% vs +3.8% RBC forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and

CentFX (https://centfx.com/), a fast-growing provider of digital trading and financial technology solutions, is pleased to announce its participation in the upcoming iFX Expo, taking place on February 11–12, 2026, in Dubai. As a Silver-level exhibitor, CentFX will be present at Booths 26 and 27, where the company will unveil its latest advancements aimed at redefining

KEY POINTS Indian Rupee fell to a new record low US-India trade talks ongoing India inflation data to be released tomorrow FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The USD weakened across all the major currencies following the Fed’s decision as the central bank communicated a higher bar for further rate cuts, but Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish

A line by line comparison of the October FOMC statement to the December statement. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting as expected. The vote was 9-3 with 2 members voting to keep rates unchanged, and 1 voting to cut by 50 basis points. Below is a line-by -line

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.25%. Key points from the Bank of Canada statement: BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady stance as inflation remains near target and the economy continues to adjust to global trade disruptions. Global conditions remain mixed: major economies are resilient despite US trade

STATEMENT Prior 0.00% Willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary Sees 2025 inflation at 0.2% (0.2% prior) Sees 2026 inflation at 0.3% (0.5% prior) Sees 2027 inflation at 0.6% (0.7% prior) Sees 2025 GDP at around 1.5% ( 1.0-1.5% prior) Sees 2026 GDP at around 1.0% (1.0% prior) Inflationary pressure is

KEY POINTS The SNB is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.00% FX communication to remain unchanged To downplay the recent miss in inflation data To upgrade future outlook due to lower US tariffs and less uncertainty The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.00%. The recent inflation

The U.S. dollar is moving lower at the start of the North American session after early-session gains were fully erased. As U.S. traders entered, the tone shifted decisively, with downward pressure on yields helping to weigh on the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 3.3 basis points at 4.131%, a notable pullback considering

Powell signals neutral policy stance as non tariff driven inflation fades Fed Powell:Layoffs, hiring remain low. Rates are now in a plausible range of neutral. The line-by-line comparison of the October and the December FOMC statements The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50% to 3.75% White House economic advisor Hassett: Fed

Overview The Federal Reserve will release its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, with markets broadly expecting a 25-basis-point cut. While a cut is anticipated, the real market-moving impact will come from the wording of the statement and Chair Powell’s press conference, which traders will analyze as a proxy for the stance of the full

In 2025, the Trump administration took on the world with its trade but 2026 will be about its neighbors. There is a sense that the trade war has stabilized and hopefully it has but the year ahead will be all about the USMCA trade agreement. Mexico and Canada represent nearly 30% of US imports and

U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound, but Holiday Distortions Cloud the Picture U.S. initial jobless claims rebounded to 236K, above the 220K expected by economists. The prior week was also revised higher to 192K from 191K, though that earlier reading remains unusually low. It’s important to recall that last week’s sharp drop to 191K was widely viewed

In the European session, we have the Swiss National Bank (SNB) releasing its monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.00% and not signal anything in terms of forward guidance. Despite the disappointing inflation data in the recent months, SNB members reiterated that the bar for negative

SNB Chairman Schlegel: SNB policy to stoke inflation slowly in the next quarters SNB leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected in December FX option expiries for 11 December 10am New York cut What are the main events for today? It’s been an empty session in terms of data releases and notable newsflow. The

Dow Jones Technical Analysis Video My technical analysis video comes before the quick FOMC review for some of the readers that may be interesting in that. Those that have already seen my videos on investingLive.com may know that I like to try to keep the charts real simple, yet effective. This means that I do

It was a fun rid but S&P 500 futures are now back where they were before the FOMC decision. It was a 50-point rise and fall, or about 0.7% in each direction. If you want to blame anyone, blame Oracle for the decline as Nasdaq futures are underperforming down 1.1% on an 11% share price

KEY POINTS Stuck in a range between 4250 resistance and 4150 support Medium-term bias remains bullish, short-term bias to be decided by NFP/CPI Fed’s decision mostly as expected, Fed Chair Powell a bit dovish FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold remains stuck in a range between the 4250 resistance and the 4150 support as market participants continue to

Prior was -19 If you squint, you can start to see a turn upward. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We will continue to observe the situation and adjust monetary policy where necessary to keep price stability Low interest rate is effective through the exchange rate Midterm inflation pressure is practically unchanged since the previous quarter We remain ready to intervene in the currency market as necessary Our monetary policy remains expansive Monetary policy also

Speaking on Fox News: Fed has plenty of room to cut rates. Probably will need to do some more. Data could support 50 basis point cut You could definitely get to 50 or even more. The president will make his decision on Fed chair in a week or so. He is honored to be a

Introduction: What Is Crypto Trading? Crypto trading involves buying and selling digital currencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, to profit from their price fluctuations. Unlike traditional markets like shares or foreign exchange (forex), the cryptocurrency market operates on blockchain technology and is open all the time, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. In

The U.S. market isn’t in a panic, and there are no immediate strategic threats, aside from concerns about a potential AI bubble, but several restraining factors remain. Beyond broader systemic issues, such as the country’s rapidly growing debt and the rising cost of servicing it, the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on the

he numbers are out for Oracle’s Q2 fiscal 2026, and the market reaction is ugly. Shares are down more than 10% in after-hours trading and still struggling to find a base as $200 gave way. Here is the data: EPS: $2.26 vs $1.64 expected Revenue: $16.06bn vs $16.19bn expected Cloud Infrastructure Revenue: +68% y/y Software

It’s all one trade at the moment. AUD/USD is unwinding the post-Fed gains, just like stocks. Asia tried to push the moves further but soon ran out of gas. That led to profit taking and was helped along by the usual AI-overspend theme as Oracle shares were wrecked after earnings. The Australian dollar is particularly

Prior was 42.2K Full time -56.5K vs +55.3K prior Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected (prior 4.3%) Participation rate 66.7% vs 67.0% prior The RBA decision was yesterday but Bullard tipped a more-hawkish stance and the market saw a 33% chance of rate hike as soon as March but we will need to mark that

Mexico’s Senate has approved tariffs of 5-50% on imports from China and other parts of Asia. The duties will hit Asian countries that don’t have trade deals with Mexico, including China, India, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. Automobiles (Light Vehicles): 50% (up from 20%) Textiles and Clothing generallly 35% (this was a big focus of

Prior was +3.8% The trade war isn’t hurting manufacturing and the latest yen weakness won’t hurt as well (at least on the export side, it’s not so great for importers). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD 1.1800 (EUR 2.20 bn) 1.1710 (EUR 1.39 bn) 1.1610 (EUR 4.59 bn) USD/JPY 158.00 (US$ 919.98 mn) 156.00 (US$ 1.24 bn) 155.00 (US$ 876.98 mn) GBP/USD 1.3250 (GBP 325.77 mn) USD/CHF 0.7960 (US$ 650.00 mn) 0.7900 (US$ 653.00 mn) 0.7800 (US$ 451.26 mn) USD/CAD 1.4000 (US$ 1.05 bn) 1.3950 (US$ 1.18 bn) AUD/USD 0.6750

The precious metals analysts at RBC Capital Markets are out with a massive call, forecasting more upside for gold over the next two years. Despite gold already ripping 60% higher year-to-date in 2025, RBC believes the rally has continued legs. They argue that central bank buying and investment demand have fundamentally reinforced gold’s value as

Fed Chair Powell tapped the brakes on expectations for continued easing, noting that the policy rate is now within a plausible range of neutral. Throughout the press conference, he repeatedly emphasized that the Fed is “well-positioned” on policy, inflation, and the labor market—language suggesting confidence in the current stance. While Powell acknowledged that upside risks

Fed Powell is giving his opening remarks and says: Purchase of shorter-term securities to support effective control of policy rates. Consumer spending solid, business fixed investment expanding. Housing sector remains week effects of the shutdown should be offset by higher growth next quarter from reopening. Layoffs, hiring remain low September labor market releases showed unemployment

Prior was -2.9% This is a nice rebound after poor Q2 reading. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is “well-positioned” on inflation, growth, employment, and overall policy—language that markets interpreted as a signal of confidence in the current stance. While acknowledging that inflation remains elevated, Powell noted that underlying inflation would already be near 2% were it not for tariff effects, which he described as

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. The full statement from the Fed. Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has

US indices close mixed. Russell 2000 rates to new intraday record level US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Highlights Trump’s commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine Crude oil futures settle at $58.25 RBNZ signals updated – driven approach as policy Path remains uncertain U.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of

5 key bullet points: BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, judging it appropriate to keep inflation near 2% during a period of structural trade adjustment. US tariffs are hitting key sectors, but the overall Canadian economy remains more resilient than expected. CPI inflation stays contained near 2%, with core around 2½–3%, and temporary near-term

Press conference following the Bank of Canada rate decision has started. BOC Gov. TIff Macklem and Senior Deputy Gov. are answering the questions from the press: Markets can count on us taking decisions one at a time. We will be assessing data relative to our outlook. Asked about statistics, Canada revisions to GDP says that

Key Takeaways Bank of Canada expected to hold rates at 2.25%, maintaining a steady easing path after multiple cuts since mid-2024. USDCAD sits right on the pivotal 50% retracement (1.38394) after a sharp jobs-driven selloff and a two-day rebound. Midpoint level sets a perfect launch point: dovish BoC = upside toward major MAs; hawkish tone

Below is the comparison of the October rates decision to the December rate decision: The Bank of Canada today reducedheld its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points toat 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and

The major US stock indices are trading mixed with the NASDAQ index lower. The S&P and Dow industrial average or higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also higher in on pace for a record close (above 2531.13). A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average up 241 points or 0.51% at 47801.63. S&P

No need to change rates with inflation at target Data suggests inflation and GDP risks are fairly balanced I feel December rate decision won’t be difficult This has been the core ECB message for a long time now. The central bank is not expected to cut at all for years, on the contrary, the market

China November CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% expected China likely to cut RRR rate next year – report Japan PM Takaichi asked about rising yields, says closely watching market moves Zelensky signals Ukaine’s answer to Trumps peace plan will come Wednesday Trump: I hear that autopen might have signed the appointments of Fed board governors Japan

Prior was +0.2% m/m CPI -0.1% vs +0.2% exp PPI -2.2% vs -2.0% y/y This is a step in the right direction but the PPI still shows falling prices and the m/m CPI. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices have been struggling in part due to hopes for peace. Indications from Trump and Russia were that sanctions relief would come with any deal and that would allow Russian crude to flow more freely. As for the chances of a deal, they’re low but peace after a long war always seems impossible until

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.25%. Key points from the statement: BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady stance as inflation remains near target and the economy continues to adjust to global trade disruptions. Global conditions remain mixed: major economies are resilient despite US trade protectionism, with strong US

Prior quarter of 0.9% Employment cost index 0.8% versus 0.9% estimate. Employment benefits 0.8% versus 0.7% prior quarter Wages 0.8% versus 1.0% per quarter YoY data shows: Civilian worker compensation: +3.5% Wages & salaries: +3.5% Benefits: +3.5% Private industry compensation: +3.5% Wages & salaries: +3.6% Benefits: +3.5% Real (inflation-adjusted) wages: +0.6% State & local government

Yesterday, the RBA held rates steady, but Governor Bullock delivered a hawkish-leaning message, lifting rate-hike odds into early 2026. AUDUSD tested multi-day resistance near 0.6648–0.6654, but sellers repeatedly capped gains. The rising 100-hour moving average at 0.6632 remains the key near-term support, repeatedly attracting dip buyers. Range remains tight, with buyers and sellers battling between

Sector Overview Technology Sector: The technology sector displayed mixed performance today. Microsoft (MSFT) experienced a significant dip of 1.82%, hinting at possible investor concerns in software infrastructure. Meanwhile, Palantir (PLTR) surged by 1.93%, indicating strong investor confidence in AI-driven solutions. Semiconductor Sector: There’s light at the end of the tunnel for semiconductors. Nvidia (NVDA) managed

Key Data Summary (Actual vs. Estimate vs. Prior) Crude Stock: -1.812M vs -2.310M est. (Prior +0.574M) Distillate Stock: +2.502M vs +1.943M est. (Prior +2.059M) Gasoline Stock: +6.397M vs +2.764M est. (Prior +4.518M) Crude Imports: +0.212M vs Prior -0.470M (no estimate) Refinery Utilization: +0.4% vs 0.3% est. (Prior +1.8%) Crude Cushing Stocks: +0.308M vs Prior -0.457M

Fed preview: a “hawkish cut” is expected but here’s what could surprise the market FX option expiries for 10 December 10am New York cut ECB’s Villeroy: the wise thing would be to maintain ECB rates at current level ECB’s Simkus: rates can probably stay at 2% at further meetings BoC preview: the central bank is

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda. Given the looming Fed’s decision, the price action today will likely be rangebound into the event. In the American session, we have the BoC and FOMC monetary policy decisions. The BoC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the caveats to further

KEY POINTS: All eyes on the Fed’s decision today More hawkish than expected decision is likely to trigger a selloff More dovish than expected one should support silver further Key near-term support around the 59.00 level FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver continues to break records as Fed rate cut bets after Fed’s Williams comments on November 21

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, but with a hawkish tilt. That stance reflects lingering uncertainty in the data — uncertainty that should begin to resolve next week

KEY POINTS: Fed’s decision could weigh on global risk sentiment The price is trading below the key 25,900 resistance zone Near-term technical outlook more bearish FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nifty 50 recently erased all the gains triggered by the RBI’s rate cut and extended the losses further after some key technical breaks. Famous investor, Stanley Druckemiller,

Crude oil settles lower, slipping over 1% as sellers defend key technical resistance. 200-hour moving average caps the rally, reinforcing downside momentum. Swing-area support tested, raising the risk of further declines if broken. Crude oil futures finished the session at $58.25, a decline of $0.63 or -1.07%. The market briefly pushed higher early in the

We’ve got a bit of data to chew on to kick off the Tuesday session, with the focus squarely on Japan early on and China a bit later. It’s going to be an interesting start to the day. First up at the top of the hour, we get the Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index. It’s a

He’s been talking mostly about the French economy but touched on the ECB policy too now. Goes without saying that this is no news for the market as no rate cut is expected. The market has been actually starting to look for signs that the ECB could hike rates in 2026 or 2027. Right now,

Someone told me that Etheruem rally had no volume so I had to go and check that deeply. His claim? Some flashy instagram post. So I had to deep dive with orderFlow Intel. Ethereum futures exploded higher on December 9, pushing from the low 3,100s into the 3,409 zone before pulling back into the mid-3,300s.

Who is it going to be? The ‘couple’ number probably isn’t literal but it might suggest that not all 5 finalists get a crack. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump may be looking to stack the Fed. If Trump goes down this path it would be bearish for the US dollar and wildly bullish for precious metals and hard assets. The long end would hate it and there would be a big steepener. Biden appointed: Jefferson Barr Cook Kugler Kugler has already resigned and

KEY POINTS: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 3.50-3.75% The tone is expected to be more “hawkish” with clear signal of a pause and the bar for further cuts being higher We will get the Summary of Economic Projections and the Dot Plot at this decision

Silver continues to rally, it’s up 68-cents in Asia to $61.36, which is a fresh record high. Silver is turning into a retail fomo trade if it hasn’t already. And the thing about silver is that when it rallies, it can really rally. Trump talking (joking?) about vetoing Fed Governors due to Biden’s autopen certainly

USDINR slips below the 100-hour moving average, signaling early signs of weakening bullish momentum. Key support sits at the 89.7900 swing area, with sellers needing a break below to extend downside pressure. A move under the 200-hour moving average (89.7560) would mark a major shift, giving sellers clearer control for the first time since November

Fresh remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Breman highlight a continued emphasis on data dependency and policy flexibility as the economy evolves. • Important to look at all incoming data ahead of the next monetary policy meeting. • Will maintain a laser focus on the core mandate. • There is no preset course

KEY POINTS: BoC is expected to hold interest rates steady at 2.25% The central bank will likely scrap the caveats for further easing effectively marking the end of the easing cycle The market has fully priced in a rate hike in 2026, but the BoC is unlikely to validate that just yet Given the caveats

Important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflective fundamentals Will take appropriate action of excessive, disorderly moves At what point does some serious worry hit the Japanese debt market? It’s no fun losing money on 10-year notes day after day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Crude -4800K Prior was +2480K Gasoline +7000K Distillates +1000K Expectations for tomorrow’s EIA report Crude -2310K Gasoline +4518K Distillates +1943K WTI is struggling this week and finished lower by 49-cents on Tuesday. The crude number here is nice but that’s a fat build in gasoline and comes after a 4.5mb build in last week’s EIA

Donald Trump will kick off his final round of Fed chair interviews this week, according to the FT. The sources cited in the report — unnamed ‘senior administration officials’ — said Kevin Hassett remains the favorite. The gold and silver rally today was certainly helped out by the sentiment that a dovish Fed chair is

Prior was +2.7% m/m reading vs +0.3% exp Prior m/m reading was +0.4% The pricing on next week’s BOJ decision is 77% for a cut, that’s risen since last week when it was 66%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The yen is the top performer so far in Asian trading as it undoes some of yesterday’s damage. USD/JPY is down 30 pips to 156.57 and it was helped along by Japanese PM Takaichi who said they were closely watching market moves. She was mostly talking about rising yields but effectively, it’s two sides of