Sat: US/Iran Talks Sun: Hungary Election Mon: OPEC MOMR (Apr), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Mar), US Existing Home Sales (Mar), US Monthly Budget Statement (Mar) Tue: IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr), Chinese Balance of Trade (Mar), Japanese Industrial Production Final (Feb), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US

Fars is reporting that Israel will announce it’s commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut). The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend… WHat to expect? The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability.

The GBPUSD is heading into the close trading near the lower end of a well-defined swing-area ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). This zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts over the past six or so weeks, making it a key barometer for buyer conviction. Each test has attracted

The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides. Notably, Iran has said it can’t open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as ‘several’ US navy ships passed through. Trump said “We’re now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz”. I wonder if

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averages Isreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time Crude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the week US March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimate Israeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S. Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media

The major stock indices were mixed in trading today with the Dow industrial average and S&P index falling, but the NASDAQ index rising. While the indices were higher on the week with the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closing above their 100 day moving averages. The Dow industrial average trading above its 100 day moving

The price of crude oil is settling at $96.57. That is down $-1.30 or -1.33% on the day. For the week, the price is down $-16 or -14.29%. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $102.87 and $103.57. The big catalyst was the announcement of a cease-fire and the

US February PCE inflation 2.8% y/y vs 2.8% expected US initial jobless claims 219K vs 210K estimate US final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Netanyahu opens up direct negotiations with Lebanon Trump will ask Netanyahu to reduce bombing in Lebanon to help negotiations Iran wants a complete ceasefire in Lebanon before negotiations Statement from

Prior was +0.1% Ex-transport +1.2% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.5%) Revisions to durable goods orders: Orders -1.3% vs -1.4% prelim Ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.8% prelim Capital goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.7% vs +0.6% prelim Capital goods shipments nondefense ex-air +1.4% vs +1.3% prelim This is a solid report with the ex-transport number looking particularly

In an unusual post on TruthSocial, Pres. Trump says: Shares of Palantir reached a new low going back to June 2025 today at $122.68. The price is now trading at $128.20. The high reached $129.17. It is great Trump has the time to post on his stock picks, with all the other stuff going. Amazing.

There is the Strait of Hormuz and then there is domestic production. In the current week, the Baker Hughes rig count fell -3 at 545. Looking at the pieces: Oil rigs aree unchanged at 411 Natural Gas is down -3 at 127. Total rigs -3 at 545. Crude oil is is trading up $0.57 at

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Earlier: ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05 Yuan seen strengthening to

The S&P index has dipped into negative territory with the price is now down 5 points or -0.08% at 6819.25. The low price reached 6818.42. The NASDAQ index is still higher by 66 points or 0.29% but trading at session lows. The Dow industrial average is down 223 points or -0.47%. The S&P index is

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The gains were led by Italy’s FTSE MIB which is closing just below its all-time high price reached back to 2000 at 48909.04. Spain’s Ibex close at 18204.31, which is getting close to its all-time high close of 18573.83. A look at the daily

In an interview with the New York Post President Donald Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” in case strikes on Iran resume Warned military action will follow if peace talks fail Said outcome of negotiations should be known within ~24 hours Peace talks taking place in Pakistan (Islamabad) following a

Prior month 53.3 Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8% Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2% Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5% 1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month 5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last month

The Fed nominee Kevin Warsh nomination hearing scheduled for next week is to be delayed. This is according to the New York Post. No new hearing date scheduled yet Delay due to Senate Banking Committee awaiting required paperwork Committee must give at least one week’s notice before holding the hearing Deadline to proceed as planned

The geopolitical tension continues with reports that Trump had a tense call with Israel Netanyahu on Lebanon. Trump wants Israel to slow down its bombings on Lebanon while negotiations for a cease-fire continue with Iran. Netanyahu does not want to stop the bombing. In other geopolitical news: Iran also wants the release of blocked assets

The USDCHF is trading to fresh session lows heading into the weekend, reaching its lowest level since March 24. The downside momentum is gaining traction as the price continues to move further away from the 100-day moving average at 0.7886. Earlier this week, the pair dipped below that moving average on Wednesday and again yesterday,

The EURUSD is pushing to a new session high following weaker-than-expected data from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped to a fresh record low at 47.6 (vs 52.0 expected), while 1-year inflation expectations jumped sharply to 4.8% from 3.8%. Ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict are clearly weighing on consumer confidence and shaping the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been

China exits factory-gate deflation, but weak consumer demand and rising energy costs highlight an uneven and fragile inflation backdrop. Summary: China PPI turns positive at +0.5% y/y, ending multi-year deflation CPI soft at +1.0% y/y, below expectations and slowing from prior Confirms earlier theme: imported energy inflation vs weak domestic demand Oil shock from Iran

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a notable upswing in the semiconductor sector, with major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) leading the charge. Nvidia is up by 2.22% and Broadcom by an impressive 5.45%, signaling strong investor confidence in this high-tech segment. Meanwhile, consumer cyclicals also see gains, particularly with Amazon (AMZN)

Japan March PPI 2.6% y/y expected 2.4%, prior 2% and 0.8% m/m expected 0.9%, prior -0.1% I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and implications. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fars is out with the following report: An informed source, in an interview with Fars reporter following up on the negotiation axes, stated: Tehran considers the option of negotiating with Washington off the table until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and it has strongly asserted this position. According to this informed source, one

ADB warns prolonged Middle East disruptions could significantly slow Asia growth and drive a sharp rise in inflation. Summary: ADB warns Asia-Pacific growth could slow sharply if Middle East disruptions persist Growth seen at 4.7% in 2026 under prolonged disruption vs ~5.1% baseline Region could lose 1.3pp of growth over 2026–27 if conflict drags on

The broader US stock indices are set to open modestly higher with the NASDAQ up 60 points in premarket trading and the S&P index up around 10 points. Yesterday, the S&P closed above its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since March 4. That moving average currently comes in at 6804.01. The closing

Japan expands oil reserve releases and diversifies supply routes to mitigate Middle East disruption risks. Summary: Japan to release an additional 20 days of oil reserves from May Follows earlier 50-day release initiated in March Total reserves remain substantial at ~230 days Tokyo aims to source over 50% of imports outside Hormuz routes Diversifying supply

Headlines: Oil prices consolidate ahead of the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad. What’s next? The oil market faces a major reckoning if US-Iran peace talks fail Iran does not offer any goodwill gestures on Strait of Hormuz crossing ahead of talks After talking the talk, it is time for US (and Iran) to walk the

Japan’s wholesale inflation surge highlights rising cost pressures, with the BoJ warning of potential stagflation risks amid the Iran-driven energy shock. Summary: Japan wholesale inflation (CGPI) rises 2.6% y/y, above expectations Input costs surge, with import prices jumping 7.9% y/y Broad-based price pressures driven by oil, metals, chemicals BOJ flags vigilance on stagflation risk but

It all comes down to this. After agreeing on a two-week ceasefire, it now boils down to negotiations between the US and Iran to see what becomes of this temporary truce. There have been a lot of mixed messages since the start of the week but all of that won’t matter if we get positive

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 2bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As we count down to negotiations in Islamabad, it looks like Iran continues to want to hold its leverage ahead of talks with the US. According to the latest shipping data from Reuters, there’s still very minimal and restricted activity along the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. The data shows that only

Summary: New Zealand manufacturing PMI eased to 53.2 in March (from 54.8 prior) Sector remains in expansion but momentum is slowing New orders strongest component; deliveries weakest at neutral Negative sentiment among firms jumped sharply to 62% Iran war cited as a key source of uncertainty and concern Data suggests solid Q1 growth, but rising

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices dived on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been saying was part of the ceasefire

Summary: Japan FinMin Katayama downplays immediate oil shortage risks despite war backdrop Signals limited urgency on energy contingency measures for now G7 aligned that Middle East conflict must not be prolonged Highlights upcoming focus on critical minerals at G7 Plays down risks from private credit, no signs of systemic stress Uncertainty remains on domestic policy

While the data is not really the focus there is some big news expected from Chinese wholesale inflation data for March. China’s prolonged battle with deflation may be nearing a turning point, with early signs suggesting a return to positive price growth across key indicators. Rising global energy costs and base effects are expected to

Suspiciously timed trades and prediction market gains during the Iran conflict have sparked ethics concerns, prompting a White House warning and calls for tighter regulation. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carries the report. Summary: White House warned staff against betting on markets amid Iran war developments Warning followed suspiciously timed surge in oil futures trading

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The price for oil that you’re seeing on the screen is nothing more than a mirage. That is where markets are currently sitting at. WTI crude is sitting under $100 and even though it has been climbing a little since the Wednesday plunge, it belies the fact that prices in the physical market are much

Summary: BoJ’s Himino says Japan not currently in stagflation Warns prolonged Middle East conflict could create stagflation-like conditions Highlights policy dilemma: weaker growth vs rising inflation BoJ to assess scale and duration of shock before adjusting policy Reaffirms data-dependent approach at each meeting Signals flexibility, but no shift away from inflation target Bank of Japan

Mixed signals dominate as Trump talks up oil flows while diplomacy remains unclear. Summary: Trump claims oil will “very quickly” start flowing again Comment clashes with ongoing shipping disruption and weak Hormuz traffic Reports of US–Iran talks in Pakistan emerge, then are denied by Iranian state-linked media Conflicting signals highlight lack of coordinated diplomacy Iran-linked

Bank of Korea, the South Korean central bank, kept its policy interest rate steady at 2.5%, as expected. Eyeing fuel and domestic inflation, growth risks. Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finmin Katayama: Govt ready to take action on all fronts vs markets We are of the view that speculative action is heightening in crude oil, futures and FX markets I have been saying govt ready to take decisive action but won’t elaborate on future response Verbal intervention effort. This article was written by Eamonn

Dos Bocas matters less as a global crude-supply swing factor than as a refining and fuel-security risk. In today’s market, that still matters. Summary: Dos Bocas is Mexico’s flagship new refinery and a core part of Pemex’s energy self-sufficiency push. Nameplate capacity is about 340,000 bpd, but recent runs have been closer to roughly 205,000

ICYMI: Zandi warns the labour market is weaker than payrolls suggest, with his VCI indicator signalling recession risks may already be materialising. Summary: Mark Zandi warns March payrolls overstate labour market strength Job growth weak when stripping out distortions and healthcare hiring Recession risks remain elevated, near “coin flip” odds New “Vicious Cycle Index (VCI)”

China inflation. PPI first positive y/y since September of 2022. I’ll have more to come on this separately, detail, analysis etc. PPI m/m +1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US regulators convene major banks over AI-driven cyber risks, highlighting growing concern over systemic vulnerabilities. Info via Bloomberg (gated). Summary: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held urgent meeting with major banks Focus: cyber risks tied to advanced AI model “Mythos” Model reportedly capable of identifying and exploiting system vulnerabilities Regulators

Warsh hearing delay signals Powell likely to remain in place for now. Summary: Senate Banking Committee drops plans for Warsh hearing next week Delay due to missing nomination paperwork Pushes back timeline for any Fed leadership transition Suggests Jerome Powell likely remains in place for now Adds near-term policy continuity amid elevated macro uncertainty Markets

Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.6% Nasdaq Comp +0.8% Russel 2000 +0.6% DJIA +0.6% Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% There were some large divergences today. Amazon was up 5.5% on a report that it may sell its AI chips to other companies, making it a direct competitor to Nvidia. Meta also continued to gain, climbing 2.7% as

Yesterday’s relief rally in software stocks was quickly crushed and today the war lows were promptly taken out. The IGV software ETF is down 4.6% on the day. While the war was going on, Anthropic released more details on Claude and just yesterday, Meta released a solid model that highlights that scaling laws still apply.

Iran Pres. Pezeshkian is on the wires saying: Cease-fire reflects imposing the will of the Iranian nation on the enemy Iran “is not at war with any nation” Actions described as a response to aggression, not escalation Cease-fire approved unanimously by key pillars of the regime Decision made with guidance and approval from top leadership

Today’s USD 22bln 30-year bond auction will be watched closely after the prior sale stopped at a high yield of 4.871%, which was above the six-auction average of 4.745%. The last auction showed a tail of -0.7bps, better than the -0.3bps six-auction average, while the bid-to-cover came in at 2.45x, a touch above the 2.42x

Second reading was +0.7% The final Q3 reading was +4.4% Consumer spending final 1.9% vs +3.5% prior Q4 corporate profits after tax +5.7% vs +4.7% prior GDP final sales +0.3% vs +4.5% prior Inflation metrics: GDP deflator 3.7% vs 3.8% expected Core PCE final 2.7% vs 2.7% expected PCE prices final 2.9% vs 2.8% prior

High yield 4.876% Level at the time of the auction 4.871% Tail 0.5 basis point versus auction average of -0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.39X versus auction average of 2.42X Directs 24.23% versus auction average of 24.0% Indirects 64.14% versus auction average of 66.0% Dealers 11.62% versus 6 auction average of 9.9% AUCTION GRADE:

I take this as good news that the two issues are being linked by the US. We may be seeing some kind of final flurry of strikes before the Strait is opened and Israel and Lebanon have a ceasefire as well. The market is also taking this as good news as the S&P 500 ticks

The NZDUSD surged higher yesterday, driven by broad USD selling following the cease-fire headlines and supported by a slightly more hawkish tilt from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The combination gave buyers the momentum needed to break through key technical levels. From a technical perspective, the pair pushed above the 100-bar moving average on

There are some real questions about the health of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with some suggesting he’s in a coma but a statement was read on Iran State TV that was attributed to him. Regarding the region, the statement says Iran is still awaiting an appropriate reaction from southern neighbors so that Iran can

Trump in a phone interview with NBC says: He is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach. Iranian leaders speak differently when in a meeting than they do to the press They are much more reasonable They are agreeing to all things that they have to agree to. Remember they been conquered. They

US oil industry warns Hormuz toll plan risks global shipping cost surge and precedent. Summary: US oil industry pushing back on Hormuz toll proposal Lobbying White House, State Department, VP Vance Estimated cost: ~$2.5mn per shipment Would significantly raise transport and insurance costs Major concern over global precedent Risk other chokepoints adopt similar toll systems

The USDJPY is pushing higher, supported by a modest rebound in yields. The 10-year yield is up about 2 basis points—nothing dramatic, but a shift from earlier declines that is helping underpin the pair. From a technical perspective, yesterday’s sharp move lower tested a key swing area between 158.01 and 158.26. Sellers briefly pushed the

Comments from an unnamed senior Lebanon official: Lebanon is advocating for a temporary ceasefire to allow for talks with Israel Any talks would be on a separate track but use the same model as US-Iran truce No date or location set yet Lebanon needs US as guarantor of any deal with Israel Meanwhile, an Axios

Prior was -0.5% Wholesale sales +2.7% vs +0.4% expected Prior sales +1.1% vs +0.5% initially reported This number is a big boost for Q1 GDP trackers and likely indicates a response to the Supreme Court halting tariffs. That positive GDP from inventories — in that case — could be unwound by higher imports in the

There is a nice pop in risk assets after Axios reported that Israel will open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peace. Here is the post from Axios’ Barak Ravid: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations

This is what the estimates are looking for ahead of the March report tomorrow: CPI +0.9% m/m (prior +0.3%) CPI +3.3% y/y (prior +2.4%) Core CPI +0.3% m/m (prior +0.2%) Core CPI +2.7% y/y (prior +2.5%) Even though it will be a case of energy prices boosting headline inflation, core prices are also expected to

As North American trading gets underway on Thursday, markets are grappling with a familiar but critical question: are we moving toward a sustained cease-fire and de-escalation, or is this just a pause before tensions ramp back up? Right now, the answer is anything but clear—and that uncertainty is driving price action across all asset classes.

Our delegation will head to peace talks in Pakistan US must stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon Any peace in the region must include Lebanon, the coming hours are very critical Iran was on the verge of responding to the ceasefire violation last night but Pakistan intervened Meanwhile, Israel just issued an evacuation warning for Beirut’s

The EURUSD is pushing to new session highs, with the move supported by softer oil prices and a modest easing in geopolitical tensions. Headlines out of the Middle East have helped sentiment, after Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu signaled a shift toward diplomacy—directing his cabinet to focus on Hezbollah disarmament and potential normalization talks with Lebanon. This

May WTI crude oil is now up $7.66 to $102.08 on the day. The market is increasingly worried that crude supplies will grow tighter as the Strait remains essentially closed during negotiations. Officials will meet Saturday in Pakistan but in the meantime, the crude isn’t moving and Iran has attached that to potential tolls and

Well, risk trades are on the retreat but it’s not really anything too outstanding after the gains yesterday. Major indices in Europe are down slightly for the most part, with only the DAX lower by a little over 1%. And even then, that is not a whole lot as the German benchmark index posted gains

Trump warns ceasefire conditional, signals escalation risk if Iran deal fails Summary: Trump says US forces will remain deployed around Iran Ceasefire described as conditional, not final Warns of stronger military response if deal breached Reiterates no nuclear weapons condition Emphasises Hormuz must remain open and safe Signals continued military readiness Highlights fragility of current

Gold and the US dollar are sending some positive signals as we carefully watch a delicate ceasefire. Rising gold and a slipping dollar are generally good signs for risk appetite and we’ve also seen US stock markets erase losses. Those moves come despite Israel sending evacuation warnings to southern Beirut and Iran warning it will

Tech struggles, energy surges: Analyzing today’s market shifts Today’s US stock market activity paints a picture of mixed fortunes across sectors. A notable divergence is seen as technology stocks face downward pressure, while energy stocks stand out with strong gains. Here’s a detailed breakdown from today’s heatmap. 📉 Technology Sector: Challenges Continue Microsoft (MSFT) is

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 7 bps (98% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 74 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 59 bps (60% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBA: 50 bps (60% probability of rate hike at the next

Westpac sees AUD capped as Hormuz uncertainty limits upside despite ceasefire Summary: Westpac sees AUD capped at 0.7100–0.7150 near term Break higher requires confirmation of de-escalation Focus on Strait of Hormuz fully reopening Ceasefire seen as uncertain, not yet durable Contradictory narratives weighing on sentiment Technical limits on shipping still in place AUD trading around

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1600-10 region and also the 1.1635 level. Now, the expiries are a little bit further away from the current spot price – especially the larger ones. But with the US-Iran truce

After the more optimistic showing yesterday, markets are not quite following up on that so far today. Traders and investors are looking guarded as the fragile truce between the US and Iran looks like it could fall apart at any time. After the gains yesterday, S&P 500 futures are now down 0.4% while major indices

The USDCAD moved lower in the wake of broad USD selling following the “cease-fire” headlines, with the initial push taking price below an upward sloping trendline. That break had the look of a momentum shift, but follow-through was lacking. Instead, the pair quickly snapped back higher—an early signal that sellers were not yet ready to

Headlines: Iran president reaffirms that ceasefire agreement has been violated Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran deal fails, vows Hormuz must stay open (bluster?) Another case of he said, she said for markets? Dollar holds steadier today as fragile US-Iran truce keeps traders guessing Gold remains supported amid the US-Iran ceasefire as focus turns

The weekly initial and continuing claims shows: Initial jobless claims 219K vs 210K estimate. Prior week 202K revised to 203K 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 209.5K versus 208.0K last week. Continuing claims 1.794M vs 1.840M estimate. Prior week 1.841M revised to 1.832M. 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.823M vs 1.837M

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq surged into new highs yesterday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. However, the market didn’t extend the gains as some negative news weighed a bit on the risk sentiment. The main culprit was Israel launching a large wave of strikes on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran insisting that Lebanon was

Macron tweet backs Iran–U.S. ceasefire but flags Hormuz, nuclear risks as key hurdles to lasting deal. Summary: Macron confirms talks with Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian Strong endorsement of ceasefire as “best possible” outcome Calls for full compliance across all theatres, including Lebanon Ceasefire seen as gateway to broader Middle East negotiations Flags key sticking

The USDCHF fell sharply yesterday on the back of broad USD selling, and in the process broke below a cluster of key technical levels, including: 200-day moving average at 0.7943 Swing level near 0.79235 100-day moving average at 0.78877 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.78735 That sequence of breaks signaled a meaningful

Prior was 2.8% Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Prior was +2.8% Core m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% exp Unrounded core PCE ___% vs +0.285% m/m prior PCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior Supercore (services ex-shelter) +0.2% m/m and +3.2% y/y Headline PCE Headline PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expected

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got a boost yesterday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditions supported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wiped out when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran insisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement. For now, the ceasefire is

Israeli strikes on Lebanon violate ceasefire agreement Attacks on Lebanon would deem ceasefire negotiations meaningless Iran will not abandon the Lebanese people This reaffirms what we already know from yesterday, with Iran already saying that three clauses to the ceasefire agreement have been violated. Besides this, Iran parliament speaker Qalibaf was also out on social

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver prices jumped yesterday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditions supported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wiped out when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran insisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement. For now, the ceasefire is still

Perth Mint sales drop as price volatility cools retail gold and silver demand Summary: Perth Mint gold sales down 35% m/m in March Silver sales nearly halved m/m Gold: 43,656 oz vs 67,249 oz prior Silver: 976k oz vs 1.92mn oz prior Both metals still higher year-on-year Gold +8% y/y, silver +37% y/y March decline

In an interview with Bloomberg former BoJ official says rate hike likely as inflation risks build despite war uncertainty. Summary: Former BoJ official Kaizuka says rate hike likely this month Warns BoJ risks falling behind inflation curve Middle East conflict seen as reinforcing inflation pressures Oil prices easing but expected to remain elevated BoJ data

Short and medium-term real interest rates are clearly negative Japan’s financial conditions remain accommodative Increased fiscal spending could crowd out private investment by pushing up market interest rates Negative interest rates are leading to moderate uptrend in private capital expenditure Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that despite shifts in global policy, Japan’s internal

Prior -0.5%; revised to 0.0% The drop in German industrial output was less than estimated in February, that despite a positive revision to the January estimate too. The less steep decline on the month sees overall production keep flat relative to the same month a year ago. The less volatile three-month comparison also shows a

The main consumer confidence index takes a dive from 39.7 in February to 33.3 in March. And that is the weakest reading since the middle of last year. The US-Iran conflict is threatening to derail the consumer recovery in Japan, not least with higher petrol prices and spillovers to higher inflation. And for the BOJ,

Goldman cuts near-term oil outlook as risk premium fades but keeps longer-term view. Summary: Goldman cuts Q2 oil forecasts Brent/WTI seen at $90/$87 in Q2 Driven by reduced geopolitical risk premium Early signs of Hormuz flows improving Front-end oil curve repricing lower Back-end forecasts unchanged Brent: $82/$80 (Q3/Q4) WTI: $77/$75 (Q3/Q4) Structural supply-demand still supportive

Hormuz remains effectively shut despite ceasefire, with tanker flows still halted. Summary: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed despite ceasefire No oil or gas tankers transiting waterway – NY Times cite Kpler, a global ship-tracking firm. Only limited dry cargo vessels making passage Iranian media says strait “fully closed” Reports of tankers being turned away Ship

Its all about the ceasefire, the ebb and flow of headlines, the cracks and chasms, news around this will be the driver during the session here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia steps in to secure fuel supply as Hormuz disruption exposes import risks Summary: Australia underwriting fuel imports via Export Finance Australia Deals struck with Ampol and Viva Energy Aims to boost supply amid Iran war disruptions Australia imports ~80% of liquid fuel Localised shortages already reported Government can direct distribution of fuel Volatility and

From a little earlier, Goldman says oil shocks lift rates short term but drive cuts as growth weakens Summary: Goldman says rates rising on oil-driven inflation fears Markets pricing tighter policy in near term Supply shocks create inflation vs growth trade-off Higher oil boosts inflation but drags on activity Historical pattern shows two-stage policy response

As global markets navigate a precarious geopolitical landscape, investor sentiment remains highly sensitive to diplomatic developments. Even as Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran deal fails, vows Hormuz must stay open to protect vital commodity supply chains, broader equities have responded favorably to the current pause in hostilities, a relief rally where the S&P

Ceasefire may delay Fed cuts as inflation risks outlast growth concerns Summary: Timiraos: ceasefire shifts Fed risk calculus Markets pricing slightly higher odds of cuts End of conflict removes key growth downside risk Weak growth argument for easing diminished Inflation risks remain elevated Energy and goods prices unlikely to fully reverse Financial conditions easing on

Goldman cuts Q2 oil to $90/$87, keeps $82/$80 Brent and $77/$75 WTI outlook Australia to underwrite fuel imports via Ampol, Viva amid supply risks Perth Mint gold, silver sales drop sharply in March after price slide Ceasefire may reduce case for Fed cuts as inflation risks persist: Timiraos AUD seen capped near 0.7150 as Hormuz

Kevin Hassett is Director of the National Economic Council in Trump’s White House. Says the oil price spike will raise the CPI Tries to soften the blow saying it’ll be a ‘one time’ thing. Yeah, right. Info via Fox. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via Reuters: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy posted a map showing alternative shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz to help transiting ships avoid naval mines, the semi-official Iranian news agency ISNA said early on Thursday A positive for ceasefire vibes. Sure need some! Not the map. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Yuan on the rise: ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05 — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.

There’s not much other detail from the report, besides noting that the Japanese government is said to be mulling over releasing an additional amount of oil from its reserves. The timing could be as early as May, with about 20 days’ worth of oil to be released. That according to sources familiar with the matter.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Earlier: ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05 PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump lashes NATO as alliance fractures widen over Iran conflict response Summary: Trump criticises NATO after meeting with Rutte Accuses allies of failing to support Iran war effort Renews rhetoric on Greenland tensions No clear commitment to remain in NATO Reports of potential US troop redeployments European allies resisting deeper involvement in conflict Spain reportedly

RBNZ sees growth recovery if ceasefire holds, but inflation risks remain elevated. Summary: RBNZ Governor expects economic growth in 2026 High-frequency data shows early-year momentum improving March stable but April likely softer amid geopolitical tensions Growth outlook tied to Middle East ceasefire holding Fuel price decline seen as key support for recovery RBNZ held cash

Cutthroat optimization is the hidden risk in Mythos and future AI models Iran parliamentary speaker says three clauses of the ceasefire agreement already broken Will fighting in Lebanon derail the ceasefire? FOMC Minutes showed a growing openness to rate hikes from some participants White House: Iran put forward a more reasonable and condensed plan Oil

RBNZ says growth hinges on conflict outcome as prior cuts still support economy Summary: Breman says rate cuts still providing economic stimulus Growth outlook tied to Middle East conflict resolution Swift ceasefire could support stronger growth this year Earlier data showed improving momentum pre-conflict March stable, April likely softer Supply disruptions key uncertainty alongside oil

ING turns bullish on yuan, citing policy shift and strong fundamentals. Earlier: Yuan seen strengthening to 6.8 as China resilience offsets seasonal weakness Summary: ING shifts yuan outlook into bullish scenario New USD/CNY forecast range: 6.70–7.05 Yuan up over 2% vs USD this year Outperforming most major and Asian currencies PBoC signalling tolerance for appreciation

Physical crude market signals acute shortage as cargoes price $20 above Brent despite ceasefire Summary: US crude cargoes into Europe priced $18–$20 above Dated Brent Implies outright prices above $150/bbl vs $134 benchmark Signals extreme tightness in physical crude market Occurs despite ceasefire-driven easing in benchmark sentiment Hormuz disruption and shipping risks still constraining flows

US equity markets posted strong gains in the aftermath of the ceasefire announcement. The gains would have been larger if not for lingering uncertainty around the sustainability of a ceasefire given ongoing fighting in Lebanon and unanswered questions about Hormuz tolls and uranium enrichment. For now, the mood is very positive: S&P 500 +2.5% Nasdaq

Highlights of the March 17-18 FOMC Minutes: ‘Vast majority’ saw upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment as elevated ‘Many’ judged it would likely become appropriate to lower rates if inflation declines in line with expectations ‘Some’ saw a ‘strong case’ for a two-sided description of future rate decisions — i.e. acknowledging hikes

It looks like Israel isn’t going to abide by any ceasefire in Lebanon and that seems to be ok with the United States. What’s not clear is whether it’s ok with Iran. The statement from Pakistan’s Prime Minister yesterday said: With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran

Some headlines from the White House press briefing: Iran can no longer distribute weapons to its proxies Iran asked for an agreed to a ceasefire Iran has agreed to open Hormuz Iran’s original plan was discarded Iran then put forward a more-reasonable plan Trump’s red lines have not changed We’ve seen an uptick in Strait

The broader US stock indices remain solidly higher on the day, with the S&P up 2.10% and the NASDAQ up 2.54%, but the tone has shifted as upside momentum stalls and a tug-of-war develops between buyers and sellers. The rally ran into a technical ceiling ahead of the 100-day moving average in both indices, and

Fed’s Jefferson signals policy patience as oil-driven inflation risks rise and labour market fragility builds. Full text is here. Summary: Jefferson flags downside risks to employment, upside risks to inflation Fed policy seen as appropriately positioned and near neutral Labour market balanced but vulnerable to negative shocks Inflation still above target, with oil shock pushing

Lebanon is quickly becoming the biggest problem in ceasefire talks. Israeli top officials today said the ceasefire doesn’t apply to Lebanon and backed that up with a huge wave of strikes, including targeting 100 locations in Beirut. Both France and Pakistan have said that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire but the US hasn’t weighed

A regional source tells CNN that a deal between the US and Iran is expected to be closed tonight. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD surged higher following the cease-fire announcement after the close yesterday, but the bullish move was already taking shape earlier in the session. The pair found support against an upward-sloping trendline, which gave buyers the foundation to push higher. That momentum carried the price above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, and through

Crude oil prices are down sharply today with the front contract trading at $94.40. That is down 16.43%. The low for the day reached $91.05. The high was $109.19. The markets are reacting to the “cease-fire” deal, but the price is still remains well above the pre-war levels near $61.45. Technically, the tumble to the

Hezbollah is a saying that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon affirms its right for a response, and only strengthens the groups determination to resist and confront the enemy. Israel is saying that they confirm the attack of a Hezbollah commander in Beirut Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based Shiite political and militant group that operates as one of

Toward the end of day yesterday, the NZDUSD wsa coiling near low levels (see post here). The price was above a lower upward sloping trend line, and below a downward sloping trend line. The subsequent move higher on the ceasefire headlines said the price above the swing low from March 23 at 0.5760, and above

Sector Overview The technology sector emerged as a standout today, driven by impressive performances in semiconductor stocks. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 2.07%, while Intel (INTC) outperformed with an impressive 6.43% jump. Another notable performer, Broadcom (AVGO), surged by 3.60%. This upward momentum suggests renewed investor confidence in tech’s growth potential.Meanwhile, the energy sector faced

The US Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1 PM ET, with the long-end coming into the sale after a sharp rally in bonds that has pushed yields lower toward the 4.25% area. That move lower in yields—helped by easing geopolitical tensions and softer inflation expectations—could support demand, but traders will be

US treasury auctioned off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.282% High-yield 4.282% WI level at the time of the auction 4.280% Tail 0.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of 0.3 basis points. Bid to cover 2.43X versus average 2.49X Directs 23.9% versus average 19.2%. Indirect 65.3% versus average

There is a big uncertainty about whether Lebanon is involved in the ceasefire and if Iran will accept it if not. There is a report that a ship was turned around due to strikes on Lebanon. At the same time, Iran itself seems to be violating the agreement as it has sent drone strikes today.

The big news so far today: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Iran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal — Meanwhile, other news continues. The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a

It’s not at all clear what the basis for the ceasefire is and what are the points that will lead to a lasting agreement. That seems to be angering Trump, who is lashing out at the media again. More importantly, he said that the peace will be discussed behind closed doors. Numerous Agreements, Lists, and

The U.S. dollar has been under pressure for a while now. For starters, the country’s fiscal situation just keeps getting worse — national debt has shot past $39 trillion, even though the original plan was to bring it down. So far, strong demand for U.S. Treasuries has kept things from spiraling, but investors are already

The major US indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower, the S&P and NASDAQ index are marginally higher. The declines for the day were you raised after reports that Pakistan was brokering a cease fire deal. Pres. Trump said that negotiations were heated. The proposed deal calls for 2 weeks of kicking

The focus is hopefully going to shift back to the real economy now and that will include tomorrow’s PCE report and Friday’s CPI. During the time when the war dominated headlines, the news on the US economy was mostly good, highlighting that the economy was improving in February before bombs started falling. The big news

Prior 44.5 The downturn in the UK construction sector continues in March, even if at a less marked pace than in February. Of note, residential work remained by far the weakest-performing category. However, the standout in the report was a rapid acceleration in input cost inflation. That is leading to companies seeing their operating margins

In February 2026, the French trade balance showed a sharp decline of €3.8 billion to reflect a deficit of €5.8 billion. That owes to a significant increase in imports by €2.6 billion and a decrease in exports of only €1.2 billion. Looking at the details, the increase in imports was driven by higher imports of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

RBNZ expands media outreach after hold decision amid uncertain outlook – Breman schedule Reports that Iran will allow only 10-15 ships / day to pass through Strait of Hormuz Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected Bank of Korea seen holding rates on April 10 as oil shock

The war market is unwinding as the hopes for the Strait of Hormuz opening and hopes for denuclearization propelling the moves. The price of oil is down -17%. The 10 year yield is down -10.7 basis points to 4.235%, the US stock indices are sharply higher with Dow up 1310 points , the Nasdaq is

8pm US Eastern time is the time to watch, an extension is expected then or before. Oil is down equites up gold up This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3% UK house prices dipped a little in March, with the average property price now seen at £299,677. That also sees the annual house price growth slow to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in February. That shows the market has long some bounce going into the spring season but perhaps relative economic uncertainty from the

The USDCHF is extending to the downside, with price action breaking through a series of key technical levels that had previously acted as support. The pair has now moved below the 200-day moving average at 0.79428, the swing low from last week at 0.7903, and the 100-day moving average at 0.7888, and is probing below

Headlines: Risk-on wave tides over markets as US, Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire US president Trump says will work closely with Iran amid “very productive” regime change Oil prices dive after US-Iran ceasefire agreement; focus turns to Friday’s negotiations The US Dollar sinks on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement The S&P 500 almost erases March

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 surged into new highs today and basically erased all the March losses after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties

From the man himself: “The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.”

Bank of Korea set to hold on April 10 as oil shock clouds inflation and growth outlook. Summary: Bank of Korea expected to hold rates at 2.50% on April 10 Reuters poll shows unanimous no-change expectation Rates seen on hold through 2026 amid uncertainty Oil prices surge over 50%, lifting inflation risks Korea highly exposed

There are good developments about Iran They have agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz US and allies have agreed to stop attacking Iran That’s the basis of the “fragile truce” currently Some people within Iran have responded very favourably to the truce US negotiating team to work in good faith to get to an

Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.8% This is very much lagging data as the whole picture will change once we get to the March report. That as we will see a surge in energy inflation especially, which will translate to higher price pressures here and eventually make its way into consumer prices too. The picture before

Prior -11.1% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: Nothing in Federal Reserve act says the Fed should make the stock and Pres. happy. If actively talking about taking away the independence of the Fed, that is a bad idea. Inflation could come roaring back. Oil prices rising is a stagflationary shock. Fed is now in

Iran’s top joint military command Says it will deal with infrastructure of U.S. and its allies in the region in a way that will deprive them from the region’s oil and gas for years Says it will continue attacks on military, security and economic infrastructure of Israel and U.S. in the region with greater intensity

Trump: A whole civilization will die tonight Trump says in ‘heated negotiations’ with Iran Report: Iran ‘positively reviewing’ the request for a ceasefire Pakistan asks Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks and Iran to open Hormuz for 2 weeks Iranian media warns residents to stay off bridges in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE Vance

Trump announced a ceasefire: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Note this though, from Trump’s statement (a ‘truth’ tweet): subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz The White House adds that Israel has agreed to the temporary ceasefire.

The obvious target of such an attack would be the King Fahd Causeway, which is the main artery between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with millions of crossings each year. Bahrain’s hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment sectors are heavily dependent on visits from Saudi Arabia, along with many jobs that rely on cross-border commuting. The series of

Eyes are once again on the war makers. The current state of play is Pakistan has proposed a 2 week ceasefire to them both. Under consideration is the word from both. Trump’s deadline is 8pm US Eastern time, 0000 GMT. Apart from that the RBNZ is expected on hold today. I’ll have more to come

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices dived today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The ceasefire included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as condition. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

There are some positive ticks on this., which cites a senior official from Iran talking to Reuters. In terms of the two week proposal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavit tells Axios: The President has been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come This article was written by Adam Button at

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The risk-on wave across broader markets is helping to see a strong bounce in precious metals today. That as hope springs eternal after the US and Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire in trying to work out a more lasting peace in the region. Typically, fading geopolitical tensions tend to be a negative for the

Situation in the Middle East is still severely disrupting shipping and supply chains Hopefully the Strait of Hormuz will reopen About 1,000 ships are still stuck in the region, six of which are from Hapag-Llyod None of our ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz The extra costs per week due to the crisis

While overall business activity picked up in March, it belies the underlying mood in the sector as input cost inflation posts a record rise on the month. The pick up is helped by an improved mood in housing activity, posting its shallowest decline so far this year. In turn, that makes commercial activity the weakest-performing

Shariff: Says diplomatic efforts are progressing steadily Requests Trump extend the deadline for two weeks Requests Iran open the Strait for two weeks as a goodwill gesture Urges all sides to observe a ceasefire for two weeks to allow diplomacy and achieve a conclusive termination of the war Some positive movements in markets on this

High-yield 3.897% WI level at the time of the auction 3.909% Tail of -1.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of -0.3 basis points . Bid to cover 2.68X vs 6 auction average of 2.66X Dealers 13.28% versus 6 auction average of 12.3%. Directs 11.9% versus 6 auction average of 25.8%. Indirects 74.8% versus 6

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

Iran’s biggest aluminium producer, Iranian Aluminium Company, located in Arak, has been hit. . The city of Arak is highly sensitive, as it is home to the IR-40 heavy water reactor, a key part of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure . IRALCO manufactures aluminium products that can be used in military and nuclear-related applications, including missile casings,

The news, ICYMI: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Iran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal Joy for now, with difficult negotiations ahead. How long will this tentative ceasefire last? Some are giving it 48 hours. Don’t touch that dial! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Well, here we go again. Another two-week ceasefire but this time around, it seems like there is a better feeling that the war is slowly winding down. And perhaps more importantly, this time Iran is also agreeing to it and coming to the negotiating table. US president Trump dropped the news overnight and that is

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so I would wager that their relative impact will be minimal to none on a day like this. As things stand, the

Trump proposes two-week Iran ceasefire, signalling progress but leaving high risk of breakdown. Summary: Trump announces two-week ceasefire conditional on Hormuz reopening Claims US and Iran close to broader peace agreement 10-point Iranian proposal seen as workable negotiation basis Pakistan emerges as key intermediary in talks Ceasefire described as “double-sided” but conditional Significant risk remains

Trump was asked about Iran and said he “can’t comment” because he’s in “heated negotiations” with Iran. At this point it’s clear that negotiations are ongoing but we’re only four hours away from a brutal escalation. The market closed with a positive note so hopefully that can continue into tomorrow. More: Trump says he’s about

Israel’s reluctance casts doubt on ceasefire durability despite US-Iran progress. Summary: Israel signals reluctance to fully embrace US-Iran ceasefire, according to CNN Will follow US lead but still has additional military targets Iran demands include limits on Israeli operations against proxies Ceasefire described as tactical, not a final peace deal Talks to continue in Islamabad

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. The rate today at 6.8680 is the strongest for CNY since 17 April 2023. PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 78pday reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will compared to the 6 auction average for the major components. Below are the last values at the last 3 year note auction followed by the 6 auction average. High Yield: 3.579% (6-auction avg.

RBNZ seen holding steady as oil shock lifts inflation but weak growth argues for patience. Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid oil-driven supply shock Inflation seen rising above 4% with upside risks depending on oil path Growth outlook deteriorating, with recovery pushed into 2027 Central bank likely to look through initial inflation

RBNZ seen on hold as it navigates oil-driven inflation shock while signalling patience on policy tightening. Due at 0200 GMT / 2200 US Eastern time Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid energy-driven inflation shock Policymakers likely to look through near-term inflation but watch for persistence Communication to balance avoiding overtightening vs maintaining

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though a deal by Trump’s 8 pm ET deadline remains a “longshot”, Axios writes. This is the latest in the non-stop series of ‘leaks’ on the US/Israel-Iran war and it cites an Israeli official a “two other sources”

The US stocks have erased their declines. The S&P is up 5.02 points or 0.08%. The NASDAQ index is up 21.51 points or 0.10%. Crude oil is now lower with the May contract down -$0.12 or -0.12% at $112.40. The bond yields are also in negative territory with the 10 year down-2.2 basis points in

The NZDUSD is coiling as the clock ticks toward the 8 PM peace deadline, with price action tightening into a classic consolidation pattern. The pair remains capped below a downward-sloping trendline and the 100-hour moving average, and although buyers briefly pushed above both levels today, the move quickly failed—keeping sellers in control for now. At

Prior 51.9 Composite PMI 50.7 vs 50.5 prelim Prior 51.9 The headline estimate is a 10-month low while the composite reading is a 9-month low. All of this now points to the notion that the euro area economic recovery from last year is taking an abrupt knock. That as new orders/business fall hard amid elevated

The USDCHF moved lower yesterday, but importantly, the decline stalled right into a key technical cluster—the 100 and 200 hour moving averages—and the pair ultimately closed near those levels. That set the stage for today’s price action, where sellers made another push lower, but once again found willing buyers leaning against that same moving average

Prior 53.5 Final Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.9 prelim Prior 53.2 Key findings: New business falls for first time since last September Output price inflation eases despite spike in cost pressures Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The war in the Middle East has put the brakes on growth in

Iran’s Kharg Island targeted with several strikes Strike hits railway bridge in Iran’s Kashan killing two Israel: Completed a wave of attacks on Iran a short while ago It looks like we are entering a new phase of escalation as Israel confirmed a wave of airstrikes across Iran, targeting critical economic and transport hubs. Mehr

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating sharply, setting the tone for the trading day—and the clock is now ticking toward President Trump’s 8 PM deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the threat of widespread destruction of Iran’s electrical and bridge infrastructure. Ahead of that deadline, reports indicated that Israel, with

The EURUSD is pushing higher, with buyers taking control after leaning against key support in the European session. The pair held firmly above its 100-hour moving average (1.15447), with the session low reaching 1.15473 just ahead of the North American open. That hold was technically significant—it gave buyers the green light to step back in

Apple foldable iPhone faces delays as engineering issues hit test production phase US doubts Iran deadline extension as tough response seen as negotiating tactic (Axios) New Zealand Commodity prices jump. Middle East conflict drives near-record ANZ index surge Australia spending holds firm as inflation jumps and job ads fall Yuan seen strengthening to 6.8 as

Iran’s Kharg Island targeted with several strikes, Iran’s Kashan railway bridge hit too Senior Iranian source: Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US Gold maintains the bearish bias as Trump’s “final” deadline nears. What’s next? Yen-tervention likely to happen in the 161 to 163 range – Nomura UK March final services PMI 50.5

Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.5%) Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.8% vs +0.4% expected Prior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.3%) Durable goods ex-defense -1.2% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.2%) Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.1% (revised to -0.4%) This is a mixed bag. There are some pockets of strength but

The White House says, only the president knows on Iran negotiations. The Iranian regime has until 8 PM to make a deal. In other news, : The IRGC commander declares new phase of reprisal attacks against aggressors, and warned that if the US crosses redlines, the IRGC’s response will be extend far beyond the region

US signals fading patience on Iran deadline but keeps door open to last-minute deal. Summary: US doubts another deadline extension Iran’s response seen as tough but tactical White House views stance as negotiating posture Trump open to any deal outcome Military action may still be delayed if talks progress Situation remains finely balanced between escalation

Engineering hurdles threaten to delay Apple’s foldable iPhone rollout as EVT issues emerge. Summary: Apple’s foldable iPhone facing engineering delays Issues arise during EVT (test production phase) Suppliers warned of possible schedule shifts April–May key window to resolve challenges Initial production targeted at 7–8M units Premium positioning limits early volume Apple’s long-anticipated entry into the

The major U.S. indices are closing higher, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a resolution to the Iran conflict. The tone was supported by cautious optimism, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated. President Trump set a hard deadline, warning that the U.S. could target bridges and energy infrastructure starting at 8 PM ET

Prior 52.3 Composite PMI 49.2 vs 52.1 prior Key findings: Fresh declines in output and new business Highest rate of cost inflation in over three years, driving a steeper hike in charges Confidence among weakest in more than five years Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The Italian services economy showed signs

Summary: Fire broke out in La Boca near the Bridge of the Americas and fuel-linked facilities Bridge traffic was suspended while authorities assessed structural safety One person was reported missing and two firefighters were injured Preliminary reports indicate the blaze began in a fuel tanker and spread Incident occurred beside the Pacific entrance area of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been consolidating since Thursday’s selloff when Trump disappointed the market in his address to the nation by maintaining the hawkish stance towards Iran and reiterating the 2–3 week timeline for ending the war. We haven’t got any meaningful development in the meantime, although Trump set a “final” deadline for Iran to

It’s a dangerous moment in world history right now as we count down to Trump’s 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to make a deal. So far there is no indication that Trump will move that deadline for the fourth time. On the wires now, a ‘senior Iranian sources’ is out with some comments to

Following a series of successful cashback promotions in 2025, leading broker XM has launched a new cashback promotion that pays clients for their trades. In spring 2026, it amps up its offering rewarding active traders up to $7 back for every lot traded and giving them the option to unlock an unlimited amount of cash.

Trump posts on Truth Social: A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will

Scotiabank is out with a note today on Meta and it highlights a slate of problems in the company’s core business: Advertising. It paints a picture of Meta that should worry bulls more than the macro backdrop does. Scotia said that 25% of the expert’s advertising clients are either pulling back or walking away from

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 and 1.1525 levels. They don’t tie to any technical significance but could play some role in terms of limiting price action in the session ahead, depending on the market

NY Fed Pres. and voting member Willaims is apeaking and says: Iran war impact will drive up headline inflation things that inflation from Iran war will go directly into headline. Inflation given energy. Inflation issue should be around 2.75%. it is very focused on underlying inflation. Story on core inflation hasn’t changed very much. Hasn’t

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday, pushing back above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which had been tightly converged—a signal that momentum was trying to shift back in favor of the buyers. However, the rally ran into a familiar ceiling, with sellers stepping in near 0.6938, the low end of a broader swing area that

We already got a sense of that with the stronger verbal intervention last week, before some market optimism helped to keep further dollar strength in check. But as the volatility swings continue and the Middle East conflict drags on, the risks continue to stay heightened for the dollar to gain and for the yen to

Summary: Israel prepares expanded strike list targeting Iranian energy and infrastructure Plans contingent on U.S. approval, with Trump decision seen as pivotal Israeli officials sceptical diplomacy will succeed Ceasefire demands include full uranium handover and end to enrichment Netanyahu raised concerns directly with Trump in recent talks Military coordination discussed following rescue of U.S. pilots

This is a bizarre communication strategy where you have Vance and Trump saying very different things. Vance is now saying the war could end “very shortly”. The military objectives of the Iran war have been completed, Vance said and added that “we hope Iran is smart.” He reiterated that 8 pm ET is the deadline

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower yesterday, but the price action was more about consolidation than conviction, with the pair trading above and below its 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.3916) and settling into a sideways range. That pause has been important technically, as it has allowed the 200-hour moving average (now at 1.3904) to catch up

Blue Owl shares hit record lows as redemption requests surge, forcing limits on withdrawals and loan sales. The move highlights growing stress in private credit, with liquidity concerns and AI-related risks weighing on sentiment. Summary: Blue Owl shares hit record lows amid sustained selling pressure Redemption limits imposed after surge in withdrawal requests Highlights liquidity

SpaceX gears up for record IPO with massive retail allocation and June roadshow. Summary: SpaceX targets late May prospectus, early June roadshow Plans major global IPO with potential $75bn raise Valuation could reach ~$1.75 trillion Retail investors to play central role in allocation 1,500 retail investors to be invited to dedicated event Broad international retail

Prior 53.9 Final Composite PMI 50.3 vs 51.0 prelim Prior 53.7 Key findings: Output growth eases amid renewed decline in new work Input price inflation highest since April 2025 due to surge in fuel costs Business optimism falls to its lowest for nine months Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

Yuan seen strengthening despite seasonal headwinds as fundamentals and flows dominate. Earlier: PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8854, the strongest, for CNY, in nearly 3 years. Summary: Strategists see yuan strengthening to ~6.8/USD in Q2 Defies typical seasonal weakness from tourism and dividends Currency up ~3% in Q1 vs peers Strong

Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US Tehran has set preconditions for talks with the US on a lasting peace Preconditions include an immediate halt to strikes, guarantees strikes will not be repeated and compensation for damages Under a permanent peace deal, Tehran demands fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz

Japanese Household Spending February 2026 Japan’s households reduced spending for a third straight month -1.7% y/y vs. expected -0.7%, prior -1% +1.5% m/m vs. expected 2.6%, prior -2.5% —- Also … Summary: Katayama declines to comment on JGB yield levels Flags G7 concern over oil-driven market volatility Notes close coordination with G7 finance ministers and

China gold reserves at the end of March 2026: 74.38 million troy ounces In February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of March 2026: $342.76 billion In February 2026: $387.59 billion In terms of value, China’s reserves in gold declined on the month but that is to be expected

Prior 49.6 Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.3 prelim Prior 49.9 The readings might be revised higher in the final report but they are still much softer than in February. A sharper decline in new business weighed on business activity with the war in the Middle East also reportedly hit order books. As such, it is

Prior -3.1 That’s the softest reading since April 2025 as euro area investor sentiment plunges amid the US-Iran conflict. The surge higher in energy prices and supply chain disruptions are two major factors in dragging down investor morale with Sentix noting that “investors realise that recession is once again on the table”. Adding that “the

Australia data show resilient spending but rising inflation and softer labour demand. Summary: Household spending +0.3% m/m in Feb, ahead of expectations Annual spending growth steady at 4.6% Services spending strong, goods modest Data predates energy-driven inflation shock TD-MI inflation gauge surges 1.3% m/m in March Signals renewed inflation pressures, likely fuel-driven Job ads fall

Summary: Services PMI falls to 46.3, back into contraction after 26 months Composite PMI fell to 46.6 in March, down from 52.4 in February Sharp drop from 52.8, weakest since November 2023 New orders decline, with exports hit by Middle East conflict Broad-based weakness, led by finance & insurance Input costs surge to multi-year highs

Middle East supply shock drives broad commodity surge, pushing ANZ index near record highs. Summary: Commodity prices surged in March amid Middle East conflict ANZ index rose 4.1% m/m, near record highs Gains broad-based; dairy, aluminium led Supply fears triggered precautionary buying UAE smelter damage tightened aluminium supply NZD weakness boosted local price index to

Summary: Anthropic plans ~$200m investment in AI-focused PE venture Total raise could reach ~$1bn with major buyout firms involved Platform aims to deploy AI tools across PE portfolio companies Focus on automation and enterprise-scale integration Competes with similar initiative being explored by OpenAI PE firms seen as ideal channel for scaling AI adoption Signals shift

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The likelihood of adverse inflation scenario is increasing Inflation expectations may shift faster due to memory of price surge after the Russia-Ukraine conflict ECB must be ready to act if signs of inflation persistence emerge But it is too early to say if a rate hike is needed on 30 April for now Inflation expectations

Saudi defence ministry Says it has intercepted and destroyed 7 ballistic missiles targeting Eastern Region Says missile debris fell near energy facilities, damage being assessed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A low-key sort of session ahead for incoming data. None of this is likely to move markets too much upon release. Asia will be holding its breath ahead of the latest Trump war deadline: Trump extends Iran deadline to Tuesday, aggressively threatens power grid destruction Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is ‘final deadline’ This article was

It’s been the case for a few weeks now. We start the week with some sense of renewed optimism only for it to be dashed through the coming days and then markets choosing to de-risk into the weekend. Will this week be the same? There’s certainly an air of familiarity to it. US president Trump

Summary: Negotiators see low odds of Iran meeting Trump’s Hormuz deadline U.S. may target bridges and power plants if talks fail Pattern of ultimatum → strikes or extensions seen in past Iranian officials expect continued military pressure regardless of talks Ceasefire efforts ongoing but limited progress Trump signalling both openness to talks and readiness to

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said on Monday that the US stock market correction is largely done, with rates, not war, the final hurdle before equities resume higher. Summary: Wilson sees current weakness as a late-stage correction within an ongoing bull market S&P 500 forward P/E down ~18%, a rare reset outside recession/tightening cycles Earnings growth accelerating,

Major US stock indices close today with gains to start the new trading week Trump Press Conference: The entire country can be taken out in one night Netanyahu urged Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire – report Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is ‘final deadline’ Iran rejects ceasefire in reply

HSBC’s Kettner says markets have triggered a buy signal after a sharp positioning reset, but warns a hot CPI could push yields toward 4.5%, a “danger zone” that risks broad pressure across equities, credit and EM assets. Earlier: Morgan Stanley says US stock correction largely done. Rates the final hurdle before higher But: ICYMI: Fed’s

The EURUSD moved higher during the Asian and early European sessions, breaking above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages—a shift that tilted the short-term bias more bullish. The pair extended to a high near 1.15549, pushing above a key swing area before encountering sellers. Since that high, the corrective move lower has been orderly,

Sector Overview The US stock market saw a vibrant momentum today, largely driven by robust performances in the technology and financial sectors. The technology sector showed remarkable resilience with notable gains from giants like Apple (AAPL), which soared by an impressive 2.41%. Supported by consistent demand for hardware innovations, Apple demonstrated its market dominance and

As the Pres. starts the press conference: 2 year yield 3.852% 10 year yield 4.332% S&P up 14.25 points or 0.21% Nasdaq up 47 points or 0.23% Dow +61 points Crude oil $112.76 Gold $4658 Silver $72.55 Bitcoin $69,647 EURUSD 1.1538 USDJPY 159.76 GBPUSD 1.3222 Headlines from the Press conference: The entire country can be

The US stock market is higher today but there’s one major exception: Tesla shares are down 2.6% in the second day of selling. Shares sank 5% on Thursday after the company reported Q1 deliveries of 358K compared to 372K expected. There was a moderate rebound at the open today but that reversed despite a positive

Axios reporter Barak Ravid said Trump on and Netanyahu held a call on Sunday night: Israeli prime minister Netanyahu urged Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire at the moment and expressed concern about the riskes of such a move, an Israeli official said Trump reportedly circled the importance of

A proposed 45-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is currently being discussed but remains one of several options under consideration, with no formal approval from President Trump. A White House official emphasized that the President has not signed off on the plan, and that military operations (“Operation Epic Fury”) are ongoing. Attention now turns

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD often move together, but technically they are telling different stories right now. For the AUDUSD, the pair moved lower at the end of March and approached its rising 100-day moving average (0.6833), but held above that level and rebounded. Last week, price action was choppy, trading above and below the 100-

Trump has extended the deadline to strike Iran’s infrastructure three times and now he says the Tuesday at 8 pm ET deadline is the final one. I’m not sure that statement carries much credibility in markets but time will tell. Trump also said that the war could end ‘very quickly’ if if Iran “does the

The USD is trading lower to kickstart the new trading week on this Easter Monday, although liquidity is thinner with the UK and much of Europe out for the holiday. Even with lighter participation, the market is being driven by weekend headlines, keeping traders cautious and reactive to geopolitical developments. Over the weekend, President Trump

Canada is closed today for the Easter Monday holiday, but U.S. markets remain open and active. Equity futures are pointing to a mixed start, with the Dow modestly lower, the S&P 500 slightly higher, and the NASDAQ leading the way with gains of around 100 points. Meanwhile, U.S. yields have rotated lower after an early

Business activity index 53.9 vs 59.9 prior Employment 45.2 vs 51.8 prior New orders 60.6 vs 58.6 prior– two year high Prices paid 70.7 vs 63.0 prior — highest in three-and-a-half years Supplier deliveries 56.2 vs 53.9 prior Inventories 54.8 vs 56.4 prior Backlog of orders 53.6 vs 55.9 prior New export orders 50.7 vs

Services activity declined, with the PMI at 47.2 (below 50 = contraction), though slightly improved from February at 46.5 New business fell again, but the pace of decline eased to a 5-month low Geopolitical uncertainty (Middle East war) weighed heavily on demand, with clients delaying or pausing projects Input costs surged to a 9-month high,

IRNA reports that Iran has relayed its rejection of a ceasefire plan. The message from Tehran has been consistent, they want a permanent end to the war with security guarantees and compensation, not a temporary ceasefire. They say they’ve been attacked during negotiations before and want everything settled before unblocking Hormuz. “That’s not surprising,” said

For some context, the report from Friday: US March non-farm payrolls +178K vs +60K expected The jobs data was much stronger than anticipated and certainly might have shut the door on talk of rate cuts, if not already because of the US-Iran conflict in the past month. CIBC weighs in by saying that: “Payroll employment

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading higher to start the new week, with the S&P up 0.36% and the NASDAQ up 0.50%. The early gains are helping both indices move back above their 100-hour moving averages, which were broken late Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Those levels—6563.31 for the S&P and

The world is dangerously close to a massive escalation in the Iran war, as Trump has threatened to strike Iran’s infrastructure, including energy, power and bridges. Iran has pledged to attack the energy infrastructure and possibly desalization infrastructure of gulf neighbors in response. Trump set a deadline for 8 pm ET on Tuesday to open

The headline comes from Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson in saying that Tehran has formulated its diplomatic response to the US but will only announce it in due time. We have to wait and see but there is a mixed reception towards all the headlines from the rumour mill in the past 24 hours. For now,

Nasdaq Futures Hold Key Support – Can Bulls Maintain Control Above 23,100? Start with my Nasdaq tecnical analysis video from today Key Takeaways Nasdaq futures remain resilient despite macro noise, holding above critical support A double rejection at resistance earlier set the tone for the current structure The 23,100-23,120 zone acts as the key “line

Tehran has received Pakistan’s proposal, it is being reviewed Will not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decision Iran will not reopen Strait of Hormuz Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ‘temporary ceasefire’ Believes that US lacks readiness for a permanent ceasefire If there’s any question that Iran might want to strike a

Bitcoin futures price prediction today: BTC reclaims post-roll value area, but bullish repair still needs acceptance above $69,320 Prediction Score: +4.0 (The prediction score ranges from -10 (extreme bearish control) through 0 (neutral or indecisive conditions) to +10 (extreme bullish control), combining both direction and confidence into a single scale. Short-term bias: moderately bullishConfidence: medium

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. With it being Easter Monday and all, expect it to be a quieter session in European morning trade today. With no major expiries in play, price action is likely to stay more muted amid a lack of

Trump extends Hormuz deadline to Tuesday while escalating threats to destroy Iran’s core infrastructure, keeping pressure high but leaving a narrow diplomatic window. Summary: Trump sets Tuesday 8pm USET deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz (WSJ reporting, gated)) Deadline effectively extended from Monday Threat escalates to full power grid + bridge destruction Tone extremely aggressive,

Mon: Holiday: Easter Monday, Canadian Services/Composite PMI (Mar), US ISM Services (Mar), Australian Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), Japanese Household Spending (Feb) Tue: EIA STEO (Apr), EZ/UK Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods Orders (Feb), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar) Wed: FOMC Minutes (Mar),

This is not a one-sided war. Iran has shown it can still hit back. Iranian fire brought down a U.S. F-15E, an A-10 was also hit during the rescue effort, and the wider conflict has now wounded 365 U.S. service members and killed 13, according to Pentagon data reported by AP. Iran is also still

Intel stock analysis today: INTC reclaims 48.50 support, shifts the next upside level to 53.50, and heads into April 23 earnings with improving momentum Prediction score: +5.7 Bias: Moderately bullish Outlook: Bullish repair in progress, but not a fully proven breakout yet INTC is an interesting stock. Some think it’s up for some wrong reasons.

If you follow investingLive.com, then you may have seen our earlier crypto call on Ethereum starting to be posivively bullish 4 days ago. This all happens as oil prices are continuing to surge this week s atraders priced in the real possibility of a prolonged crisis with Iran, which would typically impose a ‘risk off’

Prior -92K (revised to -133K) Two-month net revision -7K January was +126K (revised to +160K). December was -141K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected. Prior unemployment rate 4.4%. Unrounded unemployment 4.256%% vs 4.441% prior Participation rate 61.9% vs 62.0% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 7.9% prior Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected

The July 1 deadline for the USMCA six-year review is approaching and almost nobody in trade circles believes it will be met cleanly. A Scotiabank-hosted event in Mexico City this week with CSIS fellow Diego Marroquín Bitar laid out why, and the takeaway is straightforward: expect a drawn-out, painful process that extends well into 2027,

Trump posted this on Truth Social: With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP Trump initially pitched a 4-6 week timeline for this war and then repeatedly said they were ahead of

It’s the first Friday of the month and that means it’s time for non-farm payrolls. It’s a holiday today in much of the world and US stock and bond markets are closed, so that will make for an interesting released. The FX market has been quiet so far today and S&P 500 futures are down

The markets opened up sharply lower after the Trump news conference yesterday, but rebounded with the broader indices closing in positive territory. At session lows: S&P was down -100.38 points NASDAQ index was down -469.63 points They are closing near the highs: S&P index is up 7.36 points or 0.11% at 6582.68 NASDAQ index is

The AUDUSD slipped below its 100-hour moving average at 0.68846 during the Asian session, and early attempts to hold below that level added a more bearish technical tone. However, downside momentum stalled near 0.6858, signaling a lack of follow-through from sellers. As equities recovered, the pair rebounded and moved back above the 100-hour moving average,

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

One of the first questions you might ask when looking at a new strategy is: “What’s the win rate?” Sounds like a perfectly logical question! After all, winning more often must mean the strategy works… right? Further down the road, this thinking leads to chasing high win-rate setups… perhaps tweaking rules to avoid losses, before abandoning strategies after short

Let’s dig into the non-farm payrolls report and the numbers we have so far. What’s expected: Consensus estimate +60K (range -25K to +125K) January -92K Private payrolls consensus estimate +70K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior Participation rate prior 62.0% Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% y/y vs

Goolsbee warns the oil shock risks derailing disinflation, with duration key. Rising gasoline prices could lift inflation expectations, complicating Fed policy just as inflation was expected to ease. ICYMI, Thursday oil price jump: WTI crude oil up $11.25 to $111.38 Summary: Goolsbee flags oil surge as “pretty serious,” with duration key for inflation outlook Warns

Japan’s services sector remains in expansion but is losing a little momentum, with weaker demand growth, rising energy-driven costs, and sharply lower business confidence signalling a more uncertain outlook. Summary: Japan Services PMI eases to 53.4 (prev 53.8), still solid expansion New orders growth slows to a three-month low Cost pressures intensify, driven by energy

China’s services sector remains in expansion but is slowing, with domestic demand supporting growth while weak exports, falling employment and price discounting point to softer underlying momentum. Summary: China Services PMI eases to 52.1 (prev 56.7), still expansionary Growth slows sharply from February’s 33-month high Domestic demand remains the key driver of activity New export

US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate US February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expected Canada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expected Trump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a deal Iran drafts protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz traffic Fed’s Williams: Monetary

It’s a sparse agenda in Asia. Much of the region is out for the Good Friday holiday. But Japan is open. From Japan and China its Services PMIs. Earlier this week: Japan’s manufacturing in expansion but losing momentum China official March PMIs returned to expansion China private manufacturing PMI in expansion for 4th straight month,

Throughout this conflict, there has been a general alignment in markets. It has led to a sortof ‘war-on’ or ‘war-off’ trade where crude oil would rally on signs of escalation and it would mean stocks and bonds would fall, along with US dollar strength. Today is a big departure from that. WTI crude oil is

Energy prices affect inflation and disposable income Higher energy prices hit both sides of the Fed’s mandate So far the war is showing up in gasoline prices but not yet economic data Uncertainty and risks have increased in both directions It takes months or even years for energy to work its way through Markets are

Comments from the Dallas Fed President: Was quite challenging to do most recent round of Fed forecasts Swift war resolution may mean economic impact might be pretty moderate Policy is positioned to respond to data, Fed prepared to make adjustments as needed US has some buffers to impacts from the war Key question is if

US deploys low-cost ‘Lucas’ drone inspired by Iranian design in war. Wall Street Journal report (gated) Summary: US deploys low-cost “Lucas” drone built from reverse-engineered Iranian tech Rapid development marks shift toward cheaper, scalable warfare systems Drones used in strikes on Iranian military and IRGC infrastructure Cost efficiency contrasts sharply with traditional US munitions Highlights

The NZDUSD has erased the gains from Tuesday and Wednesday, after stalling just ahead of a key resistance zone yesterday. That earlier move higher on Wednesday pushed toward the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 20 high to this week’s low, which comes in at 0.57714. The high price reached 0.5776, but buyers

Baker Hughes weekly rig count data shows: Total rigs 548 vs 543 last Oil rigs 411 vs 409 last week Nat Gas 430 vs 427 last week. The price of crude oil is trading at $110.75. That’s up $10.60. The gain today is the highest since March 6. The high price reached $113.97. The high

Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed. Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It’s the only stock market holiday that isn’t also a federal holiday.

Market Flash: Broad Declines as Semiconductor Stocks Weigh Heavily on Tech Sector The US stock market exhibited a broad downturn today, primarily driven by significant losses in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, while financials gave a mixed performance. Let’s unpack today’s market movements and sentiments. 🖥️ Technology Sector: Struggles Persist Amidst Semiconductor Slumps Semiconductors: Nvidia

Trump is reported to have fired Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi. Fox news reports that he is eyeing Lee Zeldin as a replacement, but Todd Blanche is reportedly the interim AG. Trump has reportedly been frustrated with Bondi’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, and Zeldin’s name has come up most frequently in discussions of potential

Prior was -3.65B (revised to -$4.18B) Exports 66.31B vs 62.488B prior Imports 72.05B vs 66.13B prior Canada’s merchandise trade activity increased sharply, with imports rising 8.4% and exports increasing 6.4%. There were some big swings in gold that made this report look worse than it was. Excluding unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and

The report says that OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further increase in oil production when the bloc convenes on Sunday. That so as to position themselves to add more barrels if and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens for business. As a reminder, the bloc already agreed to a 206k bpd output boost for

In a post and video yesterday on USDCHF, I highlighted a key support zone between 0.7888 and 0.7903 that was being tested—and holding. At the time, I noted that this area had become a critical battleground. Buyers were leaning against it on the first test, helping to stall the decline. Why? Because it offered something

Trump on Truth Social posts: The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — Much more to follow! IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY! President DONALD J. TRUMP Earlier,

The comments are coming from the IRGC in saying that they have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities in Gulf states. Adding that these strikes are just a “warning” for now. And if Iranian facilities and industries are hit again, the IRGC vows that “the next response will be more painful”. Despite what Trump claims

Villeroy is set to retire but he’s out with some fresh comments: It’s far too early to predict a timetable for rate hikes but it’s clear we have the capacity to act whenever it’s necessary As of today, we are closer to the ECB’s adverse scenario than the baseline The ‘far too early’ line excludes

Prior -54.50 billion Exports 314.8 billion vs 302.2 billion prior Imports 372.1 billion vs 356.9 billion prior The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $84.6 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $27.3 billion.Year-to-date, the goods and

Headlines: Oil extends gains, risk slumps further after Trump address Crude oil surges back above $100 after Trump’s speech as traders price out optimism Dollar back in favour as Trump address dims market optimism Gold erases gains as Trump disappoints the market; Downside risks remain Iran claims to have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities

A report that’s getting some of the credit for the bounce in risk assets is from IRNA and says that Iran has drafted a protocol with Oman for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs confirmed the report but framed it more as housekeeping than some kind

Trump reiterates Iran stance with no new signals. Markets tilt cautiously risk-off. Summary: Trump declares Iran operation largely successful Signals potential exit within 2-3 weeks (unchanged) but keeps strike option open No new clarity on Hormuz reopening Ceasefire messaging remains inconsistent No confirmation of ground troop deployment Market reaction reflects mild risk-off tone US President

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices rose back to the weekly highs after Trump disappointed the market in today’s speech. Earlier in the week, crude oil came under pressure after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz

The NZDUSD pushed higher yesterday and extended the move again today, but upside momentum stalled where it matters most technically. On the hourly chart, the pair made three separate attempts to break above the 38.2% retracement at 0.57714 (from the March 20 high). While price briefly traded above that level twice, buyers could not generate

The FT is reporting on this, citing officials and industry executives as saying that the Gulf states are looking to explore new pipelines to reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz in exporting their oil and gas. That as Iran continues to cause a more vulnerable situation amid their open-ended threat and control over

It’s been a tough read on precious metals throughout the whole US-Iran conflict. In more normal circumstances, you would think geopolitical tensions would buff demand for precious metals. Instead, we’re seeing the complete opposite this time around. There are a couple of reasons for that of course. The first of course is the inflation shock.

We are now in the fifth week of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Although the U.S. president has repeatedly stated that victory is near and that the situation will be resolved soon, tensions remain high and could escalate further, hurting the Dow Jones index and XAGUSD in the process. On the one

There is a bounce in the war trade after the market open. It’s a tough one because it’s a long weekend and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report is also a tricky one (though I don’t think it matters that much). The big question is: Will Trump escalate or cut-and-run? For most of this week, the market

The USD is moving higher today as the “good times” tone from the last two sessions reverses to the downside. Risk sentiment has shifted, and the flows are reflecting that change. US yields are back on the rise, with the 10-year now up to 4.355% after testing the 4.25% level yesterday. That move higher in

The dollar dropped yesterday as the anticipation ahead of US president Trump’s address fueled market optimism. There was some expectation that Trump would see this as an opportunity to hang a “mission accomplished” banner on the war. But alas, it wasn’t exactly the case when the time came. There was plenty of speculation on what

Too early to say what we’ll need to do in April Caution needed on interest rates as situation is changing We see rising consumer inflation expectations, but I wouldn’t overplay that It’s important to maintain credibility ECB has shown it’s an institution that can deal with an inflation shock with decisive action ECB’s Simkus has

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 gave back most of the gains accumulated since Tuesday when Trump said that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. Later that day we also had the Iranian President saying that they were ready to end the war but wanted

The weekly initial and continuing claims shows: Initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate. Prior week revised to 211K from 210K 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 207.75K versus 210.75K last week. Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.839M estimate. 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.839M vs 1.846M last week. The dominant theme

US-based employers announced 60,602 job cuts in March, some 25% higher than what was seen in February. That being said, it is down roughly 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year. But as you can remember, that owed much to Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative at the time. “Removing

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 500mn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations. Another tiny injection. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TMGM today announced its role as an emergency contribution supporter for UNICEF Australia, providing a donation to support urgent humanitarian needs in the Gaza Strip. This contribution is a key element of TMGM’s global Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) strategy, aiming to provide substantial assistance to children affected by the ongoing conflict. Addressing a Critical Crisis

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.” In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning

Tsunami threat issued: M 7.8 119 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia Depth 10.0 km Impacts could extend to shores of Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The market is pricing in hope for the end of the war and the blockade of Hormuz and that led to a second day of gains for equities. Early in the day, it looked like the same kind of powerful strength that we saw yesterday but the enthusiasm faded later in the day Closing changes:

The main focal point today will, of course, be Trump speaking: Trump will say the Iran war is “winding down” in address, will criticize NATO There is still US troop movement to the Middle East so regardless of what he says he might sneak in a ground assault some time over the weekend. This article

South Korea scrambles for oil supply as Hormuz disruption forces sourcing shift. Summary: South Korea secures ~50m barrels of alternative oil for April Hormuz disruption cuts access to Middle East crude flows Government taps multiple suppliers and manages demand Shortfall remains versus normal import levels Australia LNG curbs seen as limited impact South Korea has

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. Well, the dollar sentiment has shifted around as US president Trump didn’t offer much of anything new in his address towards the Iran situation earlier. He reaffirmed that it will

Remarks here, distilled from a long rambling speech. Trump address: Going to hit Iran very hard over the next 2-3weeks Market movement over the previous 2 days were hinged on an announcement of him pulling out. Not yet though. Oil popped a little: Gold, AUD down … markets a risk off response, but not an

South Korea secures alternative oil as Hormuz disruption hits supplies AUD, NZD fall as oil surge and ongoing war risks lift stagflation fears PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8880 (vs. estimate at 6.8764) Trump offers no new Iran signals; markets turn cautious after speech Trump spoke without adding new info, still

Exports surged while imports fell very sharply: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump speaking, says: Iran’s navy is gone Air Force is in ruins Most of Iran’s leaders are dead Situation has been ongoing for 47 years, too long Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism Getting close to finishing the job Allies should take the lead in protecting Hormuz, US will help When conflict is over

AUD and NZD slide as oil shock fuels stagflation fears and rate hike expectations. Summary: AUD and NZD fall as oil surge and war risks weigh on growth outlook Hormuz disruption fuels stagflation concerns across global markets Trump signals conflict may end but keeps near-term military pressure Markets price higher inflation and further RBA tightening

Hedge funds hit by worst drawdown in years as volatility forces de-risking. Summary: Hedge funds suffer worst monthly drawdown since January 2022 Fundamental long/short strategies hit hardest across all regions Asia-focused funds lead losses, followed by Europe and US Volatility from Iran war and cross-asset moves drove de-risking Systematic strategies outperform as discretionary funds struggle

This chatter doing the rounds: Unconfirmed reports (Fautuks Network on twitter / X being cited) citing Fox News suggest Trump may signal the possible use of ground troops to secure Iranian uranium in an upcoming speech, a scenario analysts say would involve complex and high-risk operations. *** Update: Faytuks Network deletes earlier post on this.

Trump yesterday announced that he will deliver a speech at 9 pm today. There have been hints and leaks about it all day and now we have another one from Politico that says: Trump will declare the war is “winding down” He’s expected to claim that all military objectives have been met He intends to

The FT reports that Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined a Hormuz coalition to break the blockade. That’s using one geopolitical crisis as a bargaining chip in another — and evidently it worked. The Europeans had been saying the strait situation was “not our war,” but after Trump went — reportedly

Yesterday, Pres Trump posted on Truth Social: Today, the French Navy Chief is speaking and saying: Number of Chinese vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz not enough to restore normal traffic flows China will probably need to engage more directly in the debate and show its impatience on closure of Strait of Hormuz. France’s

Prior month 0.0% revised from +0.1% Details Sales: $1.9746T in January; +0.3% m/m (vs Dec 2025), +4.5% y/y Inventories: $2.6750T; -0.1% m/m vs 0.1 estimate, +1.0% y/y Inventories/Sales Ratio: 1.35, down from 1.40 in Jan 2025 At its core, the Census Business Inventories report is a pulse check on demand vs. supply across the U.S.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have come under some pressure yesterday after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. The losses extended further later in the day when the Iranian President said that they

The broader market is optimistic about a resolution in Hormuz and Iran despite mediocre and mixed signals from Washington and Tehran. The S&P 500 is up 1.2% in a continued rally from yesterday and it’s tough to hang it on any headline. Trump has repeatedly indicate that the US is ready to declare ‘mission accomplished’

Prior 47.4 Swiss manufacturing activity was surprisingly more robust in March, despite the impact of the Middle East conflict already starting to show up. Of note, production levels returned to expansion territory with it rising by 3.6 points to 50.6 in March. Meanwhile, the manufacturing orderbook also rose strongly by 7.3 points to 54.2 on

Prior 50.1 It’s just a minor downgrade to the final estimate as France’s manufacturing sector continues to stagnate in light of the Middle East conflict. The two biggest things to note are that suppliers’ delivery times and input cost inflation both surged significantly on the month. The former lengthened to its greatest degree since January

The AUDUSD moved higher with the risk-on flows yesterday. However, the price did run into some topside resistance that stalled the pair. IN the post and video, I referenced that area: …the real test was just ahead. The price remains below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 – a prior support zone that

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate from their model has dipped to 1.9% from 2.0%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.9 percent on April 1, down from 2.0 percent on March 23. After this morning’s retail sales

If we have prolonged high energy prices and supply disruption, it will strain many countries quite seriously We will have to act if appropriate, but tackling the source of the energy price shock is most important I’m very clear we need to return inflation to target in a way that causes the least damage to

Prior was 50.9 Key findings: Cost pressures intensify in March alongside notable supply chain delays Output and new orders buoyed as customers react to disruption Business expectations retreat sharply to four month low Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The immediate impacts of the war in the Middle East on

The White House is saying that Pres. Trump is to reiterate 2 – 3 week timetable for the end of the Iran operations. The president is to address the nation at 9 PM ET. Course how all this ends is anyone’s guess. Israel if it had it’s way would want it to go on until

War shocks have increased risks to economy and inflation He can see scenarios of both hiking and cutting rates Mon pol currently at the low end of neutral (I think he means top of neutral range) Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in current environment Tariffs are still inflation driver but should wane Says he’s

Prior was 51.0 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bank of England Governor Bailey struck a cautious tone, emphasizing risks around inflation, financial stability, and growth, while signaling the need to stay flexible on policy as conditions evolve. We will have to act if appropriate, but tackling source of energy price shock is most important If high energy prices and supply disruptions persist, it

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reuters is citing a source briefed on the matter: The VP has been talking to ‘intermediaries’ about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday Trump directed Vance to communicate privately that he is open to a ceasefire as long as certain US demands met including reopening Hormuz Vance delivered a ‘stern’ message that Trump was

Trump spoke with Reuters in an interview: Does not care about nuclear material, will watch via satellite Will express ‘my disgust’ with NATO in speech and says he is absolutely considering withdrawing Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, nor do they want one We have some more targets left. If we have to, we

This crisis is worse than the two in the 1970s and Russia-related in 2022 put together Some 40 key energy assets have been damaged in the Middle East More than 12 million bpd of oil supply has been lost so far to the Middle East crisis The oil loss in April is expected to be

Sector Overview 📈 Technology & Semiconductors: The technology sector, especially semiconductors, led today’s market rally. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) showed brisk gains of 1.03% and 3.65%, respectively. Intel (INTC) stood out with an impressive rise of 8.59%, bolstering investor confidence in the semiconductor space. 📉 Energy Sector: Struggling to keep up, the

Prior was +6926K Gasoline -586K vs -1876K exp Distillates -2111K vs -586K exp Refinery utilization -0.8% vs +1.5% exp The API data from late yesterday: Crude +10263K Gasoline -3209K Distillates -1040K The big build is negative for oil and it’s the second one in a row.That’s hard to believe given what’s happening in the Middle

It’s an up day! The major stock indices moved sharply to the upside in hopes that the into the Iranian war will be over sooner rather than later. That is still open for debate, but with the major indices down sharply for the month, the market was in the mood to push to the upside.

Prior 51.7 Key findings: Input price inflation hits 41-month high Suppliers’ delivery times lengthen to greatest extent since mid-2022 Production falls for first time in six months as input price inflation spikes and supply chain stress grows Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK manufacturing output contracted for the first time in

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are extending higher today, building on yesterday’s upside momentum that followed the gap open off Friday’s cycle low into the close. The recovery rally has now pushed both indices into a key technical crossroads—testing their respective falling 100-hour moving averages. The bulls and bears are fighting at the key

Prior was 52.5 Prices paid 78.3 vs 73.0 expected (Prior was 70.5) Employment 48.7 vs 48.8 prior New orders 53.5 vs 55.8 prior This prices paid number is worrisome but not surprising. US manufacturing spent most of 2025 in contraction. The ISM PMI slipped to 47.9 in December 2025, its lowest level since October 2024

The USDCAD extended above a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937 (see post yesterday), pushing toward the next upside target zone between 1.3971 and 1.3994. The rally reached a high of 1.3966—just short of that next resistance band—before stalling and rotating back to the downside. By the close, the price had fallen back below

Trump’s latest on Truth Social: Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to

The dollar is dropping in European morning trade as we see risk trades shoot up on the session. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% with the high earlier seeing gains of 0.8% on the day. In Europe itself, major indices are posting over 2% gains in following up the positive momentum from Wall Street yesterday.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. This turned the sentiment around in the markets and the positive mood improved further

Prior was 52.4 Today’s March release showed the PMI rising to 52.3 from 51.6 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold and pointing to a moderate and accelerating pace of expansion. Both output and new orders posted solid gains, supported in part by precautionary safety stock building as firms sought to

Prior was -0.2% (revised to -0.1%) Details: Ex-autos +0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs 0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%) Control group +0.5% vs +0.3% expected Prior control +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs +3.2% prior It’s worth noting that the official Census Bureau advance

The USDCHF has turned sharply lower after failing at a key topside resistance target defined by the upper channel trendline and prior highs from January 15 near 0.8041. That rejection shifted momentum, with the pair rotating back to the downside. In the process, the price has broken back below the 200-day moving average at 0.79438,

Summary: Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar halt after KOSPI futures surged 5% Program trading paused for 5 minutes to cool rapid market moves Move follows strong upside momentum from Wall Street rally Sidecar acts as a temporary circuit breaker for derivatives-driven volatility Highlights risk of momentum-driven dislocations in fast-moving markets South Korea’s stock exchange briefly

In the earlier post and video on the USDCHF, I spoke to the battle going on between the double tops a 0.8012 and the swing area between 0.79778 and 0.7989. The price did hold support near the high of the swing area – keeping the buyers in control. In the prior post, I wrote: A

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The dollar fell off yesterday amid a marked improvement in the risk mood, with talks of US president Trump looking to wrap up the war in Iran and declaring “victory”

Prior 50.6 Key findings: Softer expansions in output and new orders Sharp spike in cost inflation fails to deter growth in purchasing and stocks Supply chains conditions decline at strongest rate since October 2022 Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The impact of war in the Middle East is being felt

Rising oil prices put upwards pressure on inflation That also weighs on growth, creating a stagflationary trend How to deal with stagflation situation is a hard question for monetary policy In general, policymakers can deal with such a situation with a mix of fiscal and monetary policy But it is hard to control the economy

It is a bit of a tricky one as one can argue that investors were feeling more optimistic about the US-Iran conflict. But at the same time, I don’t want to say it but month-end and quarter-end shenanigans might also be a factor in exacerbating the moves from overnight trading. The S&P 500 clocked in

Japan’s Tankan shows improving business sentiment, with large manufacturers at their strongest since 2021, but a softer outlook and falling profit expectations signal growing caution ahead. Summary: Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers sentiment at +17 (vs +16 expected) Marks 4th straight quarterly improvement, highest since Dec 2021 Non-manufacturers strong at +36, beating expectations Outlook softens:

Market signals from insurance, shipping flows and physical oil pricing point to ongoing disruption in Hormuz, despite conflicting narratives. Mid-April looms as a key turning point as temporary supply supports begin to expire. Summary: Headline noise rising, but real signals sit in physical markets Hormuz insurance costs surge to 3.5–10% vs ~0.25% pre-war Shipping volumes

Prior 50.8 It’s a slight upwards nudge to the initial estimate and a minor improvement in manufacturing activity compared to February. That largely thanks to Germany. That saw production and order growth hold steadier in March but there are some key issues to be concerned about. The Middle East conflict is stirring up supply-side disruption

OpenAI’s record $122 billion raise boosts its war chest, widens investor access and sharpens its IPO-era push toward enterprise AI and coding tools. Circa $852 billion valuation. Summary: OpenAI has completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, topping the already huge $110 billion financing it announced on February 27. The

4 Key market signals show deep Hormuz disruption despite mixed MSM headlines China PMI slows to 50.8 as cost pressures hit two-year high UAE push to reopen Hormuz raises prospect of U.S.-Gulf coalition. What’s next to come? PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9025, CNY strongest since 25 March UAE pushes to reopen Hormuz

Prior 50.0 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The UAE is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a major strategic shift and raising the risk of broader regional escalation as Iran warns of further retaliation. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Summary: UAE is pushing to reopen Strait of Hormuz by force, lobbying for UN-backed coalition Would