The kiwi $ trades with thin liquidity at the best of times. Today will be even thinner. New Zealand markets are closed for a Friday holiday – long weekend in NZ! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK GfK Consumer Confidence in June 2025 comes in at -18 expected -20, prior -20 – 18 is highest level of 2025 GFK analysis: “With petrol prices set to rise in the coming weeks following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and with ongoing uncertainty as to the full impact of tariffs,

Japan inflation readings for May 2025: Headline rate is 3.5% y/y expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% CPI excluding Fresh Food 3.7% y/y, the fastest rise in 2+ years (again) … highest since January 2023 … said to be driven by oil and services costs, but if you take out energy (see below) its still rising fast

Swiss National Bank news from Thursday ICYMI: SNB brings back zero rates in June monetary policy decision, as expected SNB chairman Schlegel: We are now on the verge of negative interest rate territory SNB chairman Schlegel: We don’t take decision on negative interest rates lightly The cut comes as Swiss inflation turned int deflation in

MSCI said Friday that South Korea’s short-selling accessibility has improved, with no major issues remaining — a positive sign ahead of next week’s market classification review. South Korea is currently classified as an emerging market by MSCI, despite meeting many developed-market criteria. Investors are hoping the country will be added to MSCI’s watch list for

The Wall Street Journal reported earlir: WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plans Another US media outlet, ABC, is reporting the same information: The report quotes Trump”: He’s received a range of options, including using U.S. military assets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump didn’t rule out the

New Zealand q1 2025 GDP +0.8% q/q, a beat expected +0.7%, prior +0.5% -0.7% y/y, also a beat but obviously still a y/y contraction expected –0.8%, prior revised from –1.1% down to -1.3% NZD/USD with a bit of a wiggle on the release but little net change so far: This article was written by Eamonn

Israeli media reports the latest Iranian attack was intercepted by US air defense systems Israel’s Channel 12 reporting, conveyed via Al Jazeera.Earlier: Earlier: Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend NYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump’s offer to meet WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA, the trade group that represents the bond market.) is recommending the US Bond market closed that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps the odd skeleton crew. —

ABC (US media) reports: Trump is getting comfortable with the idea of taking out Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, a source familiar with the intelligence told ABC News. It would not be just one strike on the facility, it would be several, the source said. There is now a movement to get ready for this, the

Via Axios (US politics website): Trump wants to make sure such an attack on Iran is really needed Wants to be sure it wouldn’t drag the US into a prolonged war in the Middle East Wants to be sure that the attack would achieve the objective of destroying Iran’s nuclear program More: Consideration is begin

While the meeting was underway there were a flurry of news items crossing: Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend NYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump’s offer to meet WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plans We await any

A new Reuters corporate survey shows that 71% of Japanese companies say the impact of U.S. tariffs is within expectations, with 84% keeping their investment plans unchanged despite a looming 24% tariff threat on some goods and an existing 25% tariff on autos. Many firms are taking a long-term view, noting the Trump administration’s limited

Goldman Sachs says a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel has emerged in Brent crude prices, following the recent climb to $76–77/bbl. In a note released Wednesday, the bank said the premium reflects heightened Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions. Goldman maintains its base case forecast for Brent to decline to around

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

New Zealand Q1 current account balance -2.324bn ( expected -2.2bn, prior -7.037bn) Current Account/GDP -5.7% expected -5.8%, prior -6.2% Current Account Annual -24.662bn expected -24.8bn, prior -26.401bn Traders are eyeing global developments to move the Kiwi $ more than local data for now. NZD/USD isa few tics lower after the data. — More on the

Axios, a US politics site, reports that Netanyahu and Trump held a phone call. – In other related news Iran has launched its most recent barrage of missiles against Israel. Said to be 20 missiles launched. – Earlier: Israeli media says the US could join the war against Iran tonight CNN reporting the same. As

Japanese manufacturers turned more cautious in June, with sentiment dipping amid concerns over U.S. tariffs and sluggish Chinese demand, the latest Reuters Tankan survey shows. The manufacturers’ index fell to +6 in June from +8 in May, with expectations it will drop further to +2 in the next three months. Sentiment among non-manufacturers held steady

The CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) Crude Oil Volatility Index is referred to as OVX. It shows implied volatility of options on United States Oil Fund (USO). tracks 30-day expected volatility in crude oil prices, derived from the pricing of USO options — similar to how the VIX measures expected equity volatility from S&P 500

Japanese trade data, also machine orders data. Trade Balance for May 2025 -637.6bn yen expected -896.5bn, prior –115.6bn Trade Balance Adjusted -305.5bn yen expected –359.0bn, prior -408.9bn Exports -1.7% y/y, the first negative in eight months expected –3.7%, prior +2.0% Imports -7.7% y/y expected –5.9%, prior –2.2% Exports to Asia +0.4% year/year to China -8.8%

The Taco stories pretty much write themselves now. Wall Street Journal: Trump will sign an executive order sparing TikTok from enforcement of a law banning or forcing the sale of the app. extension will last 90 days the third extension since Trump took office In other news, Trump’s homeland security secretary Kristi Noem was taken

Rick Rieder is BlackRock CIO of Global Fixed Income. Snippet from a piece in Market Watch on his expectations for the Fed. Trump tariffs so far haven’t flowed into U.S. inflation data in a big way Federal Reserve will maintain its wait-and-see approach on interest rates Over the next two months, the Fed may get

As background to this, a couple of months ago news hit that US regulators are planning to ease a capital rule, specifically the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), that limits how much banks can hold in Treasury securities. In brief: This move aims to boost liquidity in the $29 trillion Treasury market and reduce borrowing costs

New Zealand consumer sentiment ticked up in the June quarter, though it remains deeply pessimistic by historical standards, according to the latest Westpac-McDermott Miller survey. The consumer confidence index rose to 91.2, up from 89.2 in the March quarter. While the small improvement reverses some of the sharp Q1 drop, the index remains well below

S&P 500 eminis, ES, and Nasdaq, NQ have recouped their small losses after Globex reopened for evening trade and are up just a touch. Moves are small only. Same across major FX with a generally lower USD. Small moves higher for : AUD, EUR, NZD, GBP Oil, of course, is a focus. Its backed off

France’s Macron: Trump told G7 leaders there were discussions to obtain a ceasefire between Israel and Iran European partners are ready to take part in serious Iran nuclear negotiations if a ceasefire is reached Americans have made offer to meet with Iranians, now will see what happens Given the objective to get a ceasefire in

Fox reporting that Trump requests NSC be prepared in Situation Room. NSC is the US National Security Council This follows the news that Trump left the G7 abruptly: Trump is leaving the G7 summit EARLY and will return to DC tonight. Trump left early This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

CNN reporter on twitter – Trump is leaving the G7 summit EARLY and will return to DC tonight: “President Trump will return to Washington tonight so he can attend to many important matters,” – White House Press Sec – Well, this could well be significant news given geopolitical strife engulfing us. The G7 meeting is

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports -3.5% y/y in May expected +8.0%, prior +12.4% in April Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, South Korea and Hong Kong increased y/y in May exports to the United States, Thailand and Malaysia decreased Singapore downgraded its GDP forecast for 2025 to 0% to 2% from 1% to 3% in April. This article

Trump tweeted (on his own social media app) telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran”. The White House have deconstructed the tweet: A White House official told CNN on Monday that Trump’s social media post telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran” reflected the urgency of the need for Iran to come to the table as its

The US dollar is rising pretty much across the baord. Its not a rapid move, but a slow boil with an accumulation of news pointing it higher: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran (the White House played this down: Trump’s ‘evacuate Tehran’ tweet is all about getting Iran to negotiate says White House) Trump

Chinese embassy in Israel: Advises Chinese citizens to leave Israel through land border crossings as soon as possible Recommends citizens to leave via land crossing towards Jordan Warns citizens that the security situation has become more severe This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A U.S. official says that that the military’s current stance is strictly defensive no intention of initiating offensive operations against Iran — Its been a very busy session so far for headline ping-pong: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran (the White House played this down: Trump’s ‘evacuate Tehran’ tweet is all about getting Iran

Trump was asked why he is heading back to DC early: “I have to be back…very important…you probably see what I see, I have to be back as soon as I can…I wish I could stay for tomorrow, but they understand, this is big stuff” Trump’s departure, so far: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate

South Korean Finance Ministry: Closely monitoring financial markets South Korea will provide financial and shipping support to exporters Trade war concerns weighing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) For May 2025, 44.0, lowest level of activity since June 2024 prior 48.1 long-run average 53.0 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel (bolding is mine): “the fall in the PSI follows the sharp decline in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) from 53.3 to 47.5. Together, they are

UK Rightmove House Prices for June 2025: -0.3% m/m, compared with a typical 0.4% rise for the usual month of June prior +0.6% +0.8% y/y, smallest annual rise since August 2024 prior +1.2% Rightmove commentary: “It appears that we’re now seeing the decade-high level of homes for sale, and the recent stamp duty increases in

The yen is weakening further. In the first hour of Israeli action again Iran on Friday the yen jumped higher but since then its been almost one-way traffic lower. USD/JPY did track sideways ofr much of the US session Friday but its jumped out of that range now. Higher oil prices are not a bullish

New bank loans in China rose less than expected in May, totaling 620 billion yuan missing forecasts of 850 billion despite recent rate cuts and a temporary U.S.-China trade truce This follows a nine-month low in April Year-on-year loan growth slowed to a record low of 7.1%, down from 7.2% in April. Household loans (mostly

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump talking to reporters as he left for the G7 summit in Canada: Says he hopes there will be a deal between Iran and Israel, but sometimes you have to fight it out Says he does not want to say if he has asked Israel to pause strikes on Iran Says US will continue to

Brent crude up around $3 +4% or so Eminis lower: ES -0.3% NQ -0.4% Brent update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump spoke in the Israel-Iran conflict on Sunday morning US time, ABC News: “We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved” Later in the day he added: Trump says US will continue to support Israel This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey of economists, the latest Consensus Forecasts. Some of the key items from the report, very briefly summarised:: annual average growth in GDP is forecast to contract by 1.1 percent in the year to March 2025 picking up to 1.9 percent in the following year lower interest rates

Japan’s foreign minister says: Japan PM in call with Trump reiterated Japan’s view on the US tariff measures Concluded to accelerate consultations between the ministers in charge to achieve mutual beneficial agreement. Exchange views on response to Israel’s recent attacks against Iran Trump wants to increase tariffs on autos and other imports from Japan. Trump’s

Israel this morning that Iran will pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas: Israel may hit energy facilities in response If Israel attacks Kharg Island, that would be a big thing: Kharg Island is critically important to Iran’s oil industry—both strategically and economically. Here’s why: Location & Infrastructure Situated in the

The price of July crude oil futures are settling up $4.94 or 7.26% at $72.98 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P, Nasdaq and Dow had their worst day since May 21 as geopolitical risk from Israel’s strike on Iran, and Iran’s counterstrike on Isreal gave traders a reason to sell. At the close, the major indices are all down by -1.13% or more. A look at the final numbers shows: Dow Industrial Average fell

Japan PM in call with Trump, reiterated Japan’s use on US tariffs The S&P, NASDAQ and Dow have worst day since May 21 Central bank meetings will dominate the economic calendar next week Israel warns that Iran will pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas Crude oil futures settle at $72.98

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Grossi is saying: Above ground plant where Iran was producing uranium enriched of up to 60% uranium has been destroyed No indication of attack on underground enrichment halls at Natanz, but an attack on the power supplies may have damages centrifuges There is radiological and chemical contamination inside facilites

Sky news is reporting Israeli army: Destroyed a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for converting enriched uranium, and laboratories in Isfahan This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Next week will be a pivotal one for global monetary policy, with key central banks scheduled to announce their latest decisions. The Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) will all hold policy meetings. While the BOJ, Fed, and BOE are widely expected to keep rates

Israel military: identified missile launched from Iran toward the territory of the state of Israel DefenSe systems are operating to intercept the threat. The public is instructed to enter a protective space and remain there until further notice. Hundreds of ballistic missiles launched toward Israel Explosions heard over Tel Aviv Iran’s response to Israel has

Major US stock indices are moving to session lows. The Dow industrial average is now down around 850 points or -1.98% at 42114.88. The S&P index is down -78 points or -1.25% at 5969.73. The NASDAQ index is down -283.1-1.44% at 19379.62 Both the NASDAQ and the S&P index are testing their 100-hour moving averages.

Axios reports that the U.S. told Israel it won’t participate in an Israeli strike on Iran. Earlier from the Wall Street Journal: WSJ: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials say This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

From the man himself: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything

Sector Overview The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant losses today, as key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) show declines of 2.61% and 2.70% respectively. This downturn signals concerns within this previously strong domain. Conversely, energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) have noted a positive shift, up by 1.92%, bolstering confidence in

European stocks ended the day broadly in negative territory, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and weaker global sentiment. All major regional indices posted losses, with Italian and Spanish markets underperforming. Closing levels: German DAX: 23,516.24, ▼255.22 (-1.07%) France’s CAC: 7,684.69, ▼80.43 (-1.04%) UK’s FTSE 100: 8,850.62, ▼34.31 (-0.39%) Spains Ibex: 13,910.59, ▼178.30 (-1.27%) Italy FTSE

Israel’s Channel 12 is reporting that Israeli air force began intercepting drones over the skies of Saudi Arabia. The IDF earlier announced that Iran has launched approximately 100 drones targeting Israel. It’s said that drone could take up to seven hours to cross Iraq, Syria and Jordan before eventually reaching Israel. This article was written

Baker Hughes rig count for the current week: Oil rig -3 at 439 Natural gas -1 at 113 Total recount -4 at 555 Versus a year ago the oil rig count is down from 485 or -46 rigs. That is a decline of 9.5%. Despite the decline,US oil production is at 13.43 million barrels per

OPEC Secretary-General says There are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics Does not see the need for unnecessary measures. Crude oil prices are sharply higher amid growing concerns over supply disruptions. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a strong breakout above the 200-day moving average, which sits at $68.47. This level

France’s Macron: Iran carries heavy responsibility in the destabilization of the region. We cannot live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons. France calls on restraint from parties. Regrets Iran didn’t take overtures from United States. We will be on our partners assigned in the region, including with our armed forces. Urges French citizens

After Israel’s attack, Iran launched approximately 100 drones targeting Israel. But here’s the kicker, the Israeli air force got the permission to intercept those drones over the skies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Moreover, we got the news that Jordan intercepted and shot down several Iranian drones entering its airspace on their way to

Israel launches major airstrikes on Iran, read from the bottom up for the chronology: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium Iran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy price Trump convenes the National Security Council meeting at 11am on Friday Further reports that Israeli air force has begun a second wave

Russia’s Putin spoke to both Iranian President Pezeshkian and Israeli PM Netanyahu: Told Netanyahu that issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program must be solved through diplomacy Told Iran’s Pezeshkian that Russia offers condolences for the dead, denounces Israeli’s actions as being in violation of UN charter This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei is addressing the Iranian people and says: Armed forces will leave Israel hopeless Israel will not remain unscathed Tehran will not go for half measures in its response. Iran is getting ready to launch 100 ballistic missiles toward Israel This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Axios with the report: Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire state of Israel Israeli Defense Minister says following Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future Israeli Defense

Iran will not participate in US/Iranian nuclear negotiations on Sunday. State TV is also announcing that the supreme leader Khamenei will address the Iranian people shortly. US Pres. Trump said the US still had a meeting planned with Iran on Sunday but was unsure whether it would take place. This article was written by Greg

The USDCAD is pushing to fresh lows as safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar fades and rising oil prices provide a tailwind for the Canadian dollar. From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken below the prior low for the year, reaching 1.3574—its lowest level since early October 2024. The drop took the price beneath

Eurostoxx -1.4% Germany DAX -1.4% France CAC 40 -1.3% UK FTSE -0.6% Spain IBEX -1.7% Italy FTSE MIB -1.3% Regional bond yields are also sinking lower amid the safety flows with 10-year yields in Germany briefly touching 2.42% – its lowest since early March. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are also down 1.3% on the day

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to China and Europe later this month for high-level talks focused on trade, investment, and regional security. It will mark his first official visit to China as prime minister. Luxon is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, senior EU officials, and attend the NATO summit

US knew of the attack ahead of time. The battle with Iran is not over. Expect that Iran will attack Israel The surprise is the secret of success Plans to talk with Iranian people directly Meanwhile the Israeli UN envoy says They do not know how long operation in Iran will take place Will continue

Iran International reports that “the sixth round of talks with the United States will not be held following the Israeli attacks” citing senior Iranian lawmaker Aladdin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NY Times is reporting that Israel has resumed the attacks on Iran. The strikes are centered on Fordo, one of the main underground nuclear sites. Israel wants to cease Iranians production of nuclear weapons. I would expect that endeavor to continue until the mission is complete. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Present trump is now telling Reuters that Iran has sustained a devastating hit. It is unclear if Iran still has a nuclear program He is not concerned about a regional war breaking out as a result of Israel’s strike on Iran. I tried to save Iran’s humiliation and death. Israelis ultimate objective is to ensure

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level and one for USD/JPY at the 144.00 level. As things stand, geopolitical tensions are running high and dominating market proceedings. So, the emotional swings on that and risk sentiment will

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There are reports of launches of both Iranian jet fighters and ballistic missiles The reports are only sporadic and unconfirmed. More: Iranian airspace is closed. all flights suspended at Imam Khomeini International Airport in capital Tehran Israeli leaders are said to have been transferred to “safe locations” Earlier: We got a 10 minute or so

TASS is reporting that Israel is prepared for the possibility of a full-fledged war with Iran according to Netanyahu’s office. Well, if that’s were to happen, then we could really see some ugly price action in the markets with oil prices surging to new highs. The playbook in the past attacks was to buy safe

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final CPI data for France and Spain. The final readings are generally ignored because they are old news (unless there are big revisions). We will also get the Eurozone Industrial Production data but it’s not a market moving release. In the

FBS, a leading global broker, has published a new expert analysis exploring how macroeconomic shifts, especially the normalization of the US Treasury yield curve, may create growth opportunities for the crypto market in 2025. After two years of an inverted yield curve — a widely watched recession signal — the spread between the 10-year and

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba says he has agreed to meet with Pres. Trump in Canada. His position has not changed and that he wants the removal of US tariffs. Pres. Trump yesterday said that auto tariffs may start soon This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg News with the report: Bank of Japan officials are seeing slightly stronger inflation than they had anticipated earlier this year, which could pave the way for future rate hike discussions—especially if global trade tensions ease, according to sources familiar with the matter. While the central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady

The GBPUSD started the day by making a new high for the year during the early Asian session, but risk-off flows following an Israeli strike on Iran triggered a sharp reversal. The flight to safety into the US dollar pushed the pair lower, breaking below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which were converged

. Despite stronger-than-expected University of Michigan sentiment data, stocks have slid to new session lows while yields have climbed to new session highs. Notably, U.S. bonds appear to be decoupling from the typical flight-to-safety flows often observed during periods of geopolitical tension. The NASDAQ index is under pressure and edging closer to its rising 100-hour

Well, this was expected. The 100 drones couldn’t have been the retaliation. In 2024 we got the same threats and they launched lots of missiles that didn’t cause much damage. Back then, they used the words “harsh”, “unimaginable” and “tooth-breaking”. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer sentiment last month 52.5 Current conditions last month 58.9 expectations last month 47.9 1 year inflation last month 6.6% 5- year inflation last month 4.2% This month the survery results are more positive: Consumer sentiments 60.5 versus 53.5 estimate Current conditions 63.7 versus 59.4 estimate. Expectations 58.4 versus 49.0 estimate 1-year inflation 5.1% down

Previous close 7.1715 Injects 202.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos At 1.40% 135bn yuan mature today injects net 67.5bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NBC is reporting that Trump says: Iran officials are calling him to discuss the situation. Iran missed opportunity to make a deal, but they might now have another opportunity This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -1.4% Manufacturing sales for April -2.8% versus -2.0% expected -the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since January 2022. Details: Key contributors to the decline were: Petroleum and coal products: -10.9% Motor vehicles: -8.3% Primary metals: -4.4% Excluding petroleum and coal products, manufacturing sales still fell 1.8%. Year-over-year, total

National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company says there has been no damage to oil refineries or storage tanks. — Iran is a global player in the oil market, despite sanctions. There is cocnern on the impact of the strokes on the poil market: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium This article was

Prior quarter 79.8% (revised to 79.7%) The industrial capacity utilization rate is the ratio of an industry’s actual output to its estimated potential output. This is not a market moving release but it shows further improvement, which is what you generally see when the central bank eases monetary policy. Further details: The capacity utilization rate

For what it is worth, Iran is threatening a retaliatory attack, in a letter to the UN Security Council, saying: Iran will respond decisively, proportionally to Israelis unlawful, cowardly acts. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +0.2% Wholesale trade for April -2.3% versus -0.9% expected Sales declined in 6 of 7 subsectors, accounting for 81.6% of total wholesale sales. The motor vehicle and parts subsector saw the largest drop: -6.5% to $14.3 billion. Year-over-year, wholesale sales were up 0.1% in April. In volume terms, wholesale sales (excluding specified categories)

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Bloomberg reports that Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, expects a trade deal with the US to spare Tokyo from higher auto tariffs. Akazawa said that if they reach a deal with the US it should secure special treatment for Japan, and exclude it from rules that apply to most countries. As a reminder, the

The headline news from Israel and Iran will be continue. The goal is the Iranian enrichment program. Will they give it up? Will they dig in? Other than that, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary data for June will be released at 10 AM with: Sentiment expected to rise to 53.5 from 52.2. Current

The major US indices are set to open lower after Israelis strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and nuclear scientists and military leaders. Iran in a letter to the UN. Counsel said that they will respond decisively and proportionally to the attacks. In premarket trading, the futures are employing lower levels for the major indices. Currently,

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.8% and that’s not all too comforting for the ECB, though at least they are on pause mode through the summer. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Israeli PM Netanyahu: We are at a decisive moment in Israel’s history Our pilots are striking many targets in Iran Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival This operation will continue for as many days as it takes This operation will hurt

Had given Iran 60 day ultimatum for a deal. Today is day 61. Iran has perhaps a second chance. Trump continues to push Iran for a deal and avoid further escalation. As a reminder, Iran said that they won’t attend the nuclear talks planned for Sunday. If they decide to go, that would be a

The major US stock indices are lower but off the premarket levels awed by the futures. The NASDAQ index is down -162.2 or -0.83%. The S&P index is down -46.2 or -0.76%. The Dow is down -575 points or -1.34%. Shares of Adobe are getting hammered after beating expectations and guiding marginallly higher. Go figure.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Some weekend muzak … gets loud from 2:40 and louder from 3:20 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

July 20 2025 date being reported for the Japanese Upper House election. The 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election is scheduled by July 22, so July 20 seems reasonable. It’s a half-election for the upper house, with 124 of the 248 seats up for grabs the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition must retain at least 125 seats

Israel struck Iran with military action on their nuclear facilities and an ballistic military factories along with military leaders. That sent the US dollar higher. US yields are also marginally higher which is a bit unusual . Looking at the US yields: 2-year yield 3.911%, +0.6 basis point 5 year yield 3.962%, +0.4 basis points

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.6% vs +0.6% y/y prelim Prior +0.9% Core annual inflation continues to ease further, falling to 1.1% in May – down from 1.3% in April. That’s largely due to a further drop in services inflation, seen down to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%; revised to +2.4% Looking at the breakdown, there were decreases in output all around for intermediate goods (-0.7%), energy (-1.6%), capital goods (-1.1%), durable consumer goods (-0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (-3.0%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Israel military official says Israel is striking nuclear and military targets Israel is striking dozens of sites across Iran the Iranian nuclear programme is existential threat to Israel Iranian regime is advancing a secret program to build a nuclear weapon Iran has enough fusion material to make 15 nuclear bombs within days The timeline so

Iran has launched an attack on Iran. We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports are sketchy Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran Markets: Oil is rocketing higher, Brent highs circa US$73

Well, there’s still no real progress on a trade deal between the two countries. So, let’s see how this will change that for the coming weeks. But considering how much the two are speaking, I would expect the 9 July deadline to be kicked down the road in any case. This article was written by

Fundamental Overview The USD got under some renewed pressure this week following some soft US data. In fact, we got lower than expected US CPI and PPI data coupled with some weak jobless claims figures. This led to a more dovish repricing in interest rates expectations and a drop in Treasury yields. On the JPY

Headlines: Trump: Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left Iran pulls out of nuclear talks planned for Sunday Iran’s legitimate and powerful response will make Israel regret its foolish act Why it’s hard to see Iran starting a full-fledged war against Israel Israel is prepared for the possibility of a full-fledged war

We are prepared for this to keep going on for days. It depends partly on the Iranian response. We have already achieved a lot. Assessments continue. Israeli air strikes targeted Iranian ballistic missiles that were pointed towards Israel. The Israeli military is still trying to determine how things went. This sounds to me like Israel

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After easing back a little earlier, oil prices are ticking back up in the past hour or so again. WTI crude is now trading to $72.96, up 6% on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome to the Friday data agenda, only a light one. None of this is likely to be too impactful upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may

Trump tariffs ramp up consumer goods prices. Trump is expanding steel tariffs to cover a wider range of imported household appliances starting June 23, according to a notice posted Thursday. The new levies will apply to “steel derivative products,” which now include items like dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, and more. The tariffs—currently set at 50%

Even with the drop in wholesale prices last month marking three straight monthly declines, the index is still at its highest since February. Year-on-year, wholesale prices are still up 0.4% owing much to a price increase for food, beverages, and tobacco products. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal with the report: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials say Israeli official warned that a strike could come as soon as Sunday unless Iran agrees to halt production of fissile material Meanwhile, Trump is carrying on, posting his thoughts on social media: He doesn’t seem

The latest financial stress reading has fallen. In the week ending June 6, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index decreased to -0.81 from -0.54 the previous week. This is via the Federal Reserve, St. Louis branch research: measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series:

JPMorgan in a note issued Thursday (US time) kept its base case oil forecast unchanged, expecting prices to stay in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel through 2025 and around $60 in 2026 it warned however that under extreme geopolitical scenarios—particularly involving Iran—prices could double, potentially hitting $120–130 per barrel This comes amid heightened tensions in

Further reports that Israeli air force has begun a second wave of air strikes against Iran Also reports of unrest in Iran directed not against Israel. Both of these unconfirmed. More: Iranian state media confirms killing of Revolutionary Guards chief Salami in Israeli strike Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir: We are calling up

Trump comments come via a Fox reporter on social media: Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb We are hoping to get back to the negotiating table Negotiating table? Good luck with that. It might be a while before speaking again. Added: U.S. official says we still intend to have talks Sunday between U.S. and Iran

Prior +8.0% New yuan loans ¥620.0 billion vs ¥850.0 billion expected Prior ¥280.0 billion New bank loans in China continue to moderate after the surge in Q1, which was largely due to policymakers ramping up stimulus in anticipation of a trade war with the US. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Iranian state media conveying a statement from Iran’s Armed Forces General staff that Israel and the US wil “pay a very heavy price”. US and Israel will receive “harsh blow” in response “Israel and the United States will recieve a forceful slap” Iran’s Armed Forces would be retaliating in force soon with counter strikes “a

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.2% and that’s down from 2.4% in the month before. Progress. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

White House sends a Statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration

The announcement confirms that the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Gholam Ali Rashid, was also killed by Israel’s attacks. That alongside armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami as reported earlier here. Iran is out saying now that Israel has crossed all red lines and it sees

ING says the oil market is now factoring in a higher risk premium due to rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strike on Iran. uncertainty has increased significantly Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of crude per day and exports around 1.7 million if tensions escalate, it’s not hard to imagine a disruption in Iranian oil

Reuters with the report on the Musk – Trump feud, and therefore if role of Musk’s SpaceX in Golden Dome missile shield is in question. Reuters cite “three people familiar with the project”. In brief: until recently there was a plan for SpaceX, Musk’s rocket and satellite venture, to partner with software maker Palantir and

Iran’s atomic agency chief has reportedly told Iranian media outlets that the Natanz nuclear facility has been completely destroyed. Other reports say “severely damaged”. This was an earlier pic from Iranian media. Earlier: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium Iran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy price Trump convenes the

German DAX futures -1.8% UK FTSE futures -0.4% The overall risk mood is on the defensive with S&P 500 futures also weighed down by 1.4% currently. Safety flows are dominating and that’s helping with gold staying bid going into the session ahead. However, oil is the standout amid fears of retaliation by Iran with WTI

As it happened: We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports are sketchy Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran Market response to Israel attack on Iran: Yen up, Oil rockets higher. Updates:

Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 30%, down from 35%, citing easing trade tensions following a fresh US-China negotiaitons: a framework on tariff rates the lifting of Chinese export restrictions on rare earths renewed access for Chinese students to U.S. universities The bank noted that

Reports of another wave of Israeli strikes on Iran has begun More: It looks likely that that Israel eliminated the top echelon of the Iranian military. An Israeli official: Alongside extensive strikes by the Israeli Air Force, the Mossad led a series of covert counter-terrorism operations deep inside Iran. These operations were designed to damage

Israel struck numerous military and nuclear targets in Iran overnight, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Of note, Iran has confirmed that Natanz nuclear facility was hit several times and has been reportedly destroyed. And among the casualties of the strikes by Israel were Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards

Financial Times is gated, link here if you can access the outlet. Earlier reports (see below) seemed focused on Sunday, FT ciitng people familiar now saying strikes could come as soon as today, Friday, June 13, 2025. What we know so far is that, Axios say that the Trump Administration has informed Israel that the

The Natanz nuclear facility was confirmed to have been hit several times and is reported to be “completely destroyed” here. The IAEA also notes that Iran has mentioned that its Bushehr nuclear power plant was not targeted in the overnight attacks by Israel. The Bushehr power plant is Iran’s first ever commercial nuclear reactor. This

US initial jobless claims 248K versus 240K estimate US May PPI +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion a 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.844% Trump signals a climb-down on immigration enforcement Trump: I don’t like that oil prices have gone up Trump: I would love to avoid a

The final piece of the Fed puzzle next week could be a meaningful one if Bank of America is right. The retail sales report is due on Tuesday, just one day ahead of the FOMC decision. The consensus for the headline right now is +0.1% but they expect it to be soft, including a ‘control

BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). 47.5, from 53.3 in April return to contraction after four consecutive months of expansion well below the average of 52.5 since it began BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: May result was disappointing the sector had appeared to have turned a corner at the start of 2025 BNZ’s Senior Economist

Shite House statement says Trump will hold a meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room Friday, June 13, 2025, at 11am to discuss the Israeli strikes in Iran Meanwhile, Iranian outlets claim that Iran will declare war on Israel and retaliate “soon.” — Summary so far: Israeli strikes hit key

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reports that Israel has detected missile launches from Iran This is not much of a surprise. Unconfirmed so far. An escalation. more to come As it unfolded: We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports

Deutsche Bank expects U.S. economic momentum to slow into the second half of the year, though a recession remains unlikely. Still, the bank cautions that rising trade tensions and policy unpredictability are starting to undermine the structural funding advantage the U.S. has long enjoyed. Strategists remain structurally bearish on the U.S. dollar, warning that reputational

The latest from Lutnick This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran, this via Axios: Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire state of Israel Israeli Defense Minister says following Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and its civilian population

Bank of America today succinctly waded into what I think is the most-important macroeconomic question right now: Was the 2000-2020 period of low inflation a sign of central banks taming inflation or a historical one-off that won’t be repeated in the future. Economist Michael Woodward writes: In the 20th century, the average inflation rate among

US indices close lower. Dow Industrial Average unchanged. Bessent says countries negotiating in good faith could see tariff deadlines rolled Canada/US reportedly exchanging potential terms on economic and security deal Cardholder data shows Canadian consumer spending continued to hold up in May Iran’s Mission to UN: Diplomacy not militarism is the only path forward. Crude

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is speaking in a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing Says countries negotiating in good faith could see trade deadlines rolled forward We are looking to insert fairness into China trade relationship China trade fairness could come thru reduced exports to U.S., or through a rebalancing of world’s two largest economies On other

Treasury Secretary Bessent sayd: EU has been “very intractable” (syn: extremely stubborn, hard to handle, resistant) in trade talks Does not think tariffs are taxes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The push me/pull me on Iran continues. Trump says: I want to have an agreement with Iran Fairly close to an agreement with Iran I’d prefer a more friendly path to an agreement There is a chance of a massive conflict. Something could happen soon… HMMMM… is the “something happen soon” and agreement or a

The “deal” is mainly just an exchange of easing of export controls. China will be easing that for rare earths and magnets but reports are suggesting it will only be temporary. Meanwhile, the US is supposedly to do the same on key technology but Bessent clarified yesterday that restrictions will still apply for AI chip

Last week’s less-dovish pivot from the ECB got the euro to 1.1490 and it’s back there now on a soft US CPI. So far, sellers at 1.1500 have defended both but it’s a battle worth watching carefully as it could bring the pair to the highest since 2021. Other than brief moment in late April,

Inflation likely to stay around 2% in the near future. He’s not providing anything new to his previous comments here. They’ve been making victory laps last week and now will just sit back and wait for the summer data before deciding what to do next. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

High yield 4.844% WI level at the time of the auction 4.859%. Tail -1.5 basis points versus the six month average of up +0.1 basis points. Bid-to-cover 2.43X vs six month average of 2.39X Directs (domestic buyers) 23.4% versus six month average of up 22.3% Indirects 65.2% versus six month average of 63.2% Dealers 11.4%

The USD is lower after the lower PPI data and the higher initial and continuing claims. The weakness in the jobs is a shift from the norm that has defined the range. Looking at the continuing claims data, the break higher is evident. For the initial claims, the trend has not broken out of the

Sector Overview Today’s stock market activity paints a dynamic picture, strongly influenced by the performance of different sectors. The technology sector emerged as a significant performer, led by gains in software infrastructure stocks. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) surged by 14.15%, showcasing robust investor confidence. Similarly, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) added 0.99% and 1.70% respectively, reflecting

Gold is climbing and nearing the $3400 mark. With last week’s high reaching $3403.44 that target is being approached. The current price is trading at $3,388 up $30.07 or 0.9% on the day. The high-priced reached $3,398.98 so far The peak for the year remains April’s high at $3500. Rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are

Initial jobless claims: Prior week initial jobless claims 247K revised to 248K Initial jobless claims 248K versus 240K estimate. Highest since October 2024 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 240.25K versus 235.25K last week Continuing claims: Prior week 1.902 million revised from 1.904 million. Continue climb to 1.956 million versus 1.910 million estimate.

Eurozone core inflation still elevated, but on a good path. Eurozone headline inflation will ease further in Q1 2026 due to energy price base effect, will return to 2% over medium term. ECB is in a good place in terms of monetary policy. We are very far from de-anchoring of inflation expectations to the downside.

On Iran, Trump says: Iran’s going to have to negotiate tougher I would love to avoid a conflict with Iran. Crude oil spiked to the downside on the comment to $67.71 but has sent back to $68 currently. The price is also back below its 200 day moving average near $68.45. Earlier today, the price

The Federal Reserve is saying that US household net worth fell to 169.3 trillion in Q1 2025: Real estate holdings fell by -$0.2 trillion in Q1. US stock market value fell by $-2.3 trillion in Q1 Nonfinancial debt expanded by 2.8% annualized rate in Q1. Total household debt increased by 1.9% annualized rate in Q1.

The weakness in the USD is extending. Catalysts cited include: easing trade tensions, or at least not worsened expectations of closer Fed rate cuts given the softer CPI EUR/USD has hit a seven-week high, and other FX is rising alongside, yen and Swissy notably. CAD, AUD, NZD are all laggards This article was written by

The AUDUSD continues to trade within a choppy but technically respectful range. On the 4-hour chart above, price action stalled yesterday after reaching to a new high for the year, but within a key swing area and the 61.8% retracement of the October-to-March move lower, between 0.65357 and 0.65537. Sellers leaned against that area and

The great, big, beautiful bill will grow the economy like it has never grown before. It is cutting expenses by $1.6 trillion. It puts our country on the right track. Trump’s bill is certainly important now for growth given the contractionary tariffs policy. I think the markets are pretty much sure the bill will pass,

Trump is out with a new message on immigration that signals that he’s not looking to deport illegal immigrants who have followed the law. This is in contrast to some of the reports lately — particularly in California — of a mass roundup of all illegal immigrants. Trump wrote: Our great Farmers and people in

Why is Boeing Stock Dropping Today? Critical Investor Update and Key Levels to Watch If you’ve been searching, “why is Boeing stock going down today,” you’re not alone. Boeing shares fell sharply today, June 12, following the unfortunate Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash near Ahmedabad. Initial reactions have driven the stock significantly lower, fueled

The GBPUSD extended higher today, reaching a new high for the year at 1.3622—the highest level since February 2022. This move also pushed the pair above last week’s high at 1.36158, signaling an attempt to continue the bullish trend. However, the breakout was short-lived. Momentum quickly faded, and the price reversed lower, failing to hold

Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks. Given his TACO reputation, probably not. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A 40-year-old British national sitting in Seat 11A reportedly walked away from the Air India crash today. I’m skeptical given that it went down in a huge fireball but it’s a slice of potential good news on a very tragic day. Footage shows him literally walking away from the crash site with only cuts and

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are still running high but at least likely to hold through the weekend. But if anything, it is the relative silence from China this afternoon that is something that stands out so far today. There’s only minimal commentary from both the foreign and commerce ministries, none providing too much

Rick Rieder is BlackRock CIO of Global Fixed Income. He says that with CPI coming in below expectations means “significantly increases the likelihood of Fed cuts this year, particularly if there is material slowing in employment.” In brief: US inflation came in softer than expected for the fourth straight month, with both headline and core

Pres. Trump is saying: Auto tariffs may go up in the not to distant future. Earlier Trump said that EV chargers are too expensive but likes Teslas He is all for electric if you buy the right one. EV is great He added that: Musk does like him; wants to talk to Musk about EVs

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 51 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 25 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 58 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 29 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 74 bps

Trump was asked by a reporter about oil prices and said he didn’t like rising oil prices. I wouldn’t exactly take that as a signal but it’s certainly not bullish. WTI has almost recovered to flat today. He also said: I’m not going to fire Powell Can’t get Powell to lower rates We’d like to

OnePrime, a brand operated within the OneRoyal Group by Royal Financial Trading Pty Ltd, is pleased to announce the appointment of Katalina Pantea as its new Head of Compliance. With over two decades of experience in regulatory compliance, anti-money laundering (AML), and financial risk management, Katalina brings deep industry expertise and strategic leadership to the

Fitch Ratings has lowered its 2025 outlook for the global oil and gas sector to deteriorating, pointing to rising OPEC+ production, expanding non-OPEC+ supply, and the drag from U.S. tariffs. The agency now expects oil demand to rise by just 800,000 barrels per day—down from a previous forecast of over 1 million—and has cut its

Crypto payment gateway introduces industry-first lifetime revenue sharing model, offering unlimited commissions per referral. Crypto payment processor CoiniGo has launched an ambitious Introducing Broker (IB) program that fundamentally restructures how payment service providers compensate business development professionals, affiliates, middlemen, and consultants in the Forex industry. The program addresses a longstanding industry problem where referrers receive

The EURUSD is racing to new highs as markets react to US policy, and perhaps some recognition that the ECB has done its easing while the US Fed may be pushed to ease sooner. US CPI came in less than expectations yesterday. The US PPI and Initial jobless claims data will be released today at

Recent developments may well have a dampening impact on growth in the Euro Area. The Euro Area economy has proved fairly resilient to date, supported by a strong labour market. The use of the US dollar in international funding, payment and trade transactions, or as a reserve currency, will not be challenged in the short

It’s a bit rich to think there could be any enforcement of the price cap — which isn’t really enforced already — without the US and its control of the global banking system. WTI crude is down $1.06 to $67.02 in a retracement of yesterday’s rally. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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The major US stock indices are closing lower led by the NASDAQ with a decline of -0.50%. The S&P index is down -0.27% while the Dow Industrial Average was virtually unchanged with a decline of -1.1 points. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average felt -1.1 points or 0.0% at 42865.77. S&P fell -16.57

The ECB has arrived at neutral level of rates. Important ECB doesn’t commit to one direction or another. Rates may still have to come down as risk has increased that inflation will be below projections. Important to take a pause on rates. I don’t reject possibility of another rate cut in 2025. Inflation may be

The USDCAD is trading lower on the day, down -0.42%, and has fallen below key technical levels on both the daily and 4-hour charts. On the daily chart (see chart above), the pair has broken beneath a rising trend line near 1.3650—now serving as close resistance—and is trading at its lowest level since October 8,

The US dollar is in freefall against the euro today and Treasury yields are sliding further. I suspect a big part of that is angst about a war in the Middle East but it’s a mixed bag. The focus will shift back to the US economy at the bottom of the hour with the weekly

Prior was +2.4% (revised to +2.5%) PPI +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m -0.5% (revised to -0.2%) Ex food and energy +3.0% y/y vs +3.1% expected Ex food and energy +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Ex food, energy and trade +2.7% vs +2.9% prior Ex food, energy and trade +0.1% vs -0.1% prior There

From the Reserve Bank of Australia at 5.20 pm Sydney time: 0720 GMT 0320 US Eastern time Speech by David Jacobs, Head of Domestic Markets Department topis is: Australia’s Bond Market in a Volatile World speaking at the Australian Government Fixed Income Forum, in Tokyo This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling up $3.17 or 4.88%. The high price reached $68.33. The low price was at $64.63. Prices moved sharply higher late today after reports that naval support activity in Bahrain have been placed on high alert with dependents of servicemembers being told to prepare for evacuation. The reports are possibly due

The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China signed the MoU on cooperation in the field of central banking this MoU updates the previous MoU of

German economy to grow by 0.3% in 2025 (previously 0.2%) German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2026 (previously 0.8%) German inflation seen at 2.1% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 On the revision higher, Ifo sees the new government measures boosting growth by 0.1% this year and by 0.7% for next year. This article was

Axios reporter with the info: White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday and discuss the Iranian response to the recent U.S. proposal, a U.S. official tells me Earlier: US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran Tensions

From the European Central Bank on the global use of the euro, in summary: Euro’s share across various indicators of international currency use largely unchanged at around 19% Emerging challenges include initiatives promoting global use of cryptocurrencies Upholding rule of law essential for maintaining, and potentially increasing, global trust in the euro And (bolding is

TD Securities has opened a tactical long position in gold hedge against escalating tensions in the Middle East sees gold as a low-risk safe haven amid potential regional instability set a one-month price target of $3,650 per ounce This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold remains mostly rangebound but with a bullish tilt given that in the bigger picture real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing and just a repricing in rate cuts expectations could weigh on it in the short term. That repricing hasn’t taken place as the data continues to favour at

In the European session, the main highlight was the release of the UK GDP. The data disappointed and dragged the GBP lower. Looking ahead, we don’t have much else on the agenda other than a lot of ECB speakers. In the American session, the focus will turn to the US PPI and the US Jobless

The euro is breaking out from an eight-week range and is at the best levels since November 2021. The three-and-a-half highs comes as the US dollar weakens broadly but there are also some euro-specific factors in play. Here are five things driving the move: 1) The latest leg comes after US initial jobless claims rose

Reuters reported that an Air India aircraft with more than 200 people crashed near the airport in India’s western city of Ahmedabad. The aircraft involved was Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, according to Flightradar data. Boeing did not immediately respond to a Reuters’ request for comment. Boeing stock ($BA) is down more than 7% in pre-market trading…

Chinese state media with the report, probably seeking to contrast with the overtly heavy handed restrictions being enforced in the us. China’s National Immigration Administration announced that, starting June 12, Indonesian travellers will be eligible for the country’s 240-hour visa-free transit policy. This brings the total number of participating countries to 55. The policy allows

US-Iran talks scheduled for this Sunday are evidently still set to go ahead but the picture is looking increasingly bleak. “We will continue enrichment and will go on our way and will not deviate from the current trend,” he said according to Sky News Arabia. Oil has backed off from the Asian highs but gold

Hopes US can work with China to implement what was agreed between the two presidents No specific details on what that is but I reckon we might only get some tidbits from the commerce ministry. We’ll see about that in the next hour or so. For now, this reinforces the notion that China will continue

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 and 1.1525 levels. The pair is now teasing the April highs, looking for firm clearance above the 1.1500 mark in general. The expiries might help to keep a lid on things

The pair found it tough to seek clearance above 1.1500 since April but buyers are definitely making a go at it today. A push above the April high of 1.1572 will then take the pair to the highest since 2021. As Trump tariffs look set to be more of a TACO trade, the recent optimism

Headlines: EUR/USD continues to grind higher, closes in on April high Gold Technical Analysis – Safe haven flows boost the precious metal Oil jump eases a little as traders deliberate Middle East tensions How have interest rates expectations changed after the US CPI report? China says have already issued some rare earth export licenses China

So far, there’s not much else in following up on the headline comment. The silence by China is definitely interesting. As for the above, it could be referring to this report from overnight. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

From the statement itself: On June 11, the Department of State ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel due to heightened regional tensions. Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, and the U.S. government’s limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Iraq. Do not travel

Despite a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—likely rose by 0.2% in May, up from 0.1% in April. This increase would elevate the year-over-year core PCE rate to 2.6% from 2.5% . The projected rise is attributed to the

Monetary policy cycle is coming to an end. Growth outlook broadly stable despite trade conflict. Medium-term inflation stabilizes at target. Financing conditions are no longer restrictive. Private consumption is supporting growth. Defence and infrastructure spending counteract tariffs. Energy prices and the Euro could change in either direction. I expect only limited trade diversion from China

TD has set a one-month Gold price target of $3,650 per ounce AUD traders – heads up for an RBA speaker today, Thursday, June 12, 2025 China Expands 10-day Visa-Free transit to 55 countries in total Australian consumer inflation expectations have jumped to 5% RBA to cut its cash rate in August & November 2025,

Japan Business Outlook Survey, the Large Manufacturing Conditions indes for Q2 2025 comes in at -4.8 expected +0.8, prior -2.4 Results right across the survey were very poor indeed: More reasons for a Bank of Japan pause. BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying BOJ expected to hold rates, slow pace

The U.S. and China have agreed on a tentative framework to revive trade negotiations, returning discussions to the post-Geneva status quo. As part of the deal, China will “immediately” begin issuing rare earth export licenses to U.S. firms—though these will be limited to six-month durations, according to The Wall Street Journal (gated). Despite this progress,

The EURGBP pair has been rising steadily in the past few weeks. The main reason is that the divergence between the ECB and the BoE is becoming more apparent to the market, but there are also long-term fundamental forces at play. The ECB is now near the end of its easing cycle, while the BoE

Tensions are ramping higher in the Middle East. Summary of where we are at: US officials are concerned over the high likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran, on military facilities the US diplomatic mission in Iraq has begun the emergency evacuation of diplomats the US is also said to be is preparing to evacuate

The reconciliation bill which is being part in the Senate, has no chance of being ready by July 4. This according to Republican Ted Cruz.. July 4th is the House of Representatives speakers Mike Johnson self-imposed deadline for passing the measure. Cruz tell PunchBowl news that the reconciliation bill could be finish by July 4

German DAX futures -0.8% UK FTSE futures -0.5% This mirrors the softness in US futures, which are also down 0.3% on the day. Wall Street also retreated yesterday but that owed much to a fall in tech shares. Geopolitical tensions are weighing of course but also as the US-China “deal” still has a lot of

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The surge higher in oil is being tempered by a move close to the 200-day moving average (blue line) at $68.45 as well. Overnight, we saw oil rally to its highest since April as the US called to move personnel from the Middle East here. The tensions ramped higher with word being that Israel was

No fixed position on future rate decisions. Decisions will depend on data. Believe in pragmatism and agility on monetary policy. As a reminder, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected recently and President Lagarde mentioned that they are near the end of their easing cycle. There are still expectations for one last

EUR/USD has been trading steadily higher and has now taken out 1.1500: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Expectations for a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations remain subdued despite Trump’s announcement of a potential deal. According to Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist at Capital Economics, the agreement focuses narrowly on non-tariff issues—such as rare earth export controls—while leaving core trade tensions unaddressed. Crucially, existing tariffs remain untouched. Although the resumption of dialogue may

CBS News senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs with the info: US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran. This is part of the reason the US advised some Americans to leave region. US anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain US sites in Iraq. Witkoff is still planning

Eurostoxx -0.5% Germany DAX -0.8% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.4% Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This follows from the drop yesterday with US futures also looking more cautious today as well. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% as we look to get things going in European trading. Just be mindful that

Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia, June 2025 come in at 5% from May’s 4.1% — AUD has been a sad underperformer on the session … EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF are all higher against the USD. CAD is little changed, but AUD and NZD are weak. Earlier: RBA to cut its cash

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. NZD/USD barely moving: ps., this posted yesterday if you are interested: RBNZ (ex) governor Orr resigned abruptly over government

ECBs Villeroy is speaking and says: ECB situation is favorable That does not mean that policy is a stable This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.2% Services -0.4% m/m Prior +0.4% Industrial output -0.6% m/m Prior -0.7% Manufacturing output -0.9% m/m Prior -0.8% Construction output +0.9% m/m Prior +0.5% The main drag comes from a decline in services output, which was the first monthly drop since October last year. Overall, there were falls in 9 of the 14 subsectors

Reports are that a US official has said it’s looking less and less likely that the sixth round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran will go ahead as scheduled on Sunday in Oman. Given developments on Wednesday this is not surprising U.S. evacuating personnel from the Middle East amid growing tensions with Iran

The US yields are moving lower with a 10-year yield now down just under 6 basis points after the successful auction at 1 PM ET. That has the dollar moving lower. The GBPUSD is trading to a new session highs. On the hourly chart above, the price has extended above key swing highs from yesterday

The NZDUSD continues to trade in a choppy range, and the recent move above the old ceiling between 0.60183 and 0.60284 is showing signs of fading. That swing area—tested multiple times over the past few weeks—remains a key barometer for near-term bias. A sustained move back below 0.60183 would shift the tilt back to the

China will resume issuing rare-earth export licenses to U.S. automakers and manufacturers, but only for six months, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The Wall Street Journal carried the report (gated). In summary … The move, a key development from recent trade talks in London, offers short-term relief while preserving Beijing’s ability to tighten

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ monthly house price balance dropped to -8 in May expected -4 from -3 in April weakest since July 2024 RICS analyst comment: “Sentiment across the UK residential property market remains somewhat subdued, with ongoing uncertainty around global trade policies and the dampening effect of transactions being brought forward ahead of

Trump still spouting rubbish on trade. This is absurd. Would be willing to extend trade talks deadline but doesn’t think it will be necessary Despite all his promises on imminent trade deals there has not yet been even one. Total b/s from this guy. More: dealing with Japan and South Korea on trade At a

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Via Westpac, in brief: RBA to hold in July to cut in August and November lower inflation outlook now makes two further cuts in early 2026 likely, February and May WPAC caveat the 2026 call with: the cuts could be earlier (December and February or February and March) if inflation and the labour market turn

USD/JPY has fallen further on a report that the Naval Support activity in Bahrain has been placed on ‘high alert’ with dependants of service members being told to prepare for evacuation. The logical jump here is that something could be happening with Iran. The S&P 500 quickly drop by 30 points on the headlines and

The headline on this from earlier is here: Bessent says countries negotiating in good faith could see tariff deadlines rolled Adding more now, from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testimony in Congress, the House Ways and Means Committee: Trump is “highly likely” to push back his July 8 deadline to reach deals with top trading partners

The calendar is lower tier data only, nothing here to move FX around too much. Eyes on the headlines again. Yesterday we had a classic from Lutnick: “a handshake for a framework” to “start to implement that framework” Two days of talks and that’s what he announced. Very underwhelming. Let’s see what today brings. This

Well ’90 deals in 90 days’ is truly dead at this point. Bessent says he will go with Trump next week, expects them to meet with Canada’s Carney This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Geopolitics: Iran Mission to UN: threats of overwhelming force won’t change facts. Iran is not seeking nuclear weapon, and US militarism only fuels instability Diplomacy not militarism is the only path forward. Meanwhile, Iran’s Pres. Pezeshkian says: They are holding talks with the US and Europe, but they will not surrendering to force This article

The Globe and Mail is reporting that: Canada and the US are reportedly exchanging potential terms on economic and security deal This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canadians have had plenty to worry about in Trump’s second term. The 51st State talk touched a nerve and tipped an election, while the tariffs upended confidence in the economy. Despite that, there has been no sign of slowing consumer spending. RBC reports — citing its cardholder data — that retail sales rose 0.7% in

According to the Wall Street Journal: China to limit rare-earth export licenses to U.S. automakers and manufacturers to six months, adding leverage and uncertainty amid trade tensions. The temporary licenses were restored after two days of intense talks in London, following a Geneva agreement last month. In exchange, U.S. agreed to ease restrictions on sales

Blackstone plans to invest up to $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, CEO Steve Schwarzman told Bloomberg, citing improving growth prospects amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. The firm has already deployed around US$100 bn in the U.K., including into data centres and logistics assets. European warehouse investments remain among Blackstone’s most profitable, with the

Prior was -4304K Gasoline +1504K vs +853K Distillates +1246K vs +824K API data from late yesterday: Crude -370K Gasoline +3969K Distllates +3712K WTI crude oil was trading at a two-month high ahead of this report, up $1.57 to $66.55. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market reveals a mixed landscape, with significant differentiations across sectors. The semiconductor sector experienced a notable uptick, with AVGO up by 2.17% and MU gaining 2.36%, marking a strong day for technology. However, on the other end, INTC fell sharply by 4.30%, reflecting investor caution around certain tech stocks. In contrast,

Boeing urges Trump administration to ensure tariff-free treatment for airplanes Chinese steel production expected to decline by 4% in 2025 BoE Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Benjamin speaking today Some European Central Bank speakers Wednesday, including Chief Economist Philip Lane PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1815 (vs. estimate at 7.1801)

The wait is nearly over, iFX EXPO International 2025 is almost here, and the excitement is palpable! Taking place in Limassol from the 17th to the 19th of June, this landmark event is the ultimate meeting point for individuals and brands in the online trading ecosystem. The expo is widely recognised as being the gathering

7.1815 is the strongest, for the CNY, since April 2 The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a

Speaking on CNBC: China is going to approve all applications for magnets for US companies Trump-Xi has to approve final wording I am really excited about how this is going to work for America China is always trying to remove export controls. This is an American agreement only. Not for other countries We will take

“A Federal Appeals Court has just ruled that the United States can use TARIFFS to protect itself against other countries. A great and important win for the U.S.” In case you missed the news from overnight here. The latest ruling sees the can kicked down the road to 31 July, so Trump’s tariffs will be

Oil demand will continue to rise well into the future, with no peak expected through 2050, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday. Speaking at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Al Ghais cited OPEC’s forecast for a 24% increase in global energy demand by 2050, with oil consumption expected to surpass 120

Expectations: Crude oil -1.960 million. Distillates +0.824M Gasoline +0.853 million The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude oil is trading at $66.50 up $1.51 or 2.34%. The price is above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April 3 (blue line on the chart below). The last time the price broke above

The major European indices are closing the day mostly lower. The exception is the UKs FTSE 100 which rose 0.23%. A snapshot of the closing levels are showing: German DAX -0.06% France’s CAC -0.34% UK FTSE 100 +0.23% Spain’s Ibex -0.59% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.09% The EURUSD is stretching to new highs as European/London traders

Bitcoin is at the best levels since May 27, rising above $110,000 and within striking distance of the all-time high of $111,965 set on May 22. The latest boost comes after Commerce Sec Howard Lutnick said that talks with China were going very well and would hopefully wrap up tonight (it’s 8:30 pm in London).

Prior was 4.342% Bid to cover 2.52 vs 2.60 prior The notes were trading at 4.428% in the ‘when issued’ market so this is a 0.7 bps stop through. Today’s CPI report certainly helped demand for bonds and 10-year OTR yields are now down 5.6 bps on the day to 4.418%. There has been a

The NASDAQ index traded up as much as 85.47 points in trading today, but has reversed course and now is trading at a new session low down -40.42 points. Nvidia shares have moved lower and currently trade down -0.64%. Intel and AMD shares are also lower. The Dow industrial average is still higher by 83

Headlines: EU aims for US trade talks to extend past Trump’s July deadline. Japan prime minister Ishiba says making steady progress in tariff negotiations with US Trump says court ruling to allow tariffs to stay in place is a great and important win Trump: Less confident about Iran deal Trump on whether he could reconcile

The US Treasury will auction $39 billion in 10-year notes at 1:00 PM ET. Yesterday the treasury auctioned off 3-year notes, which were met by average demand from both international and domestic buyers. The results will be closely watched, with investor demand measured against the 5-key component 6-month auction averages. Metrics to watch vs 6-auction

CBC reports that there are working documents outline details of a potential US-Canada trade deal. There have been numerous reports over the past two weeks indicating talks and a potential deal before the G7 on June 15. The report cites three sources with direct knowledge of the situation. “There are warnings from multiple sources that

Consider moving money around the world in seconds or buying a stake in a building by simply holding a digital token. These concepts would have appeared unthinkable a few years ago. However, in 2025, users and institutions understand how blockchain and cryptocurrencies help address typical financial problems. That’s why, in 2025, Institutional adoption has accelerated

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day. The NASDAQ index is the strongest of the indices with a gain of 0.63%. Hopes for an agreement with China and the US helped to support the market. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow Industrial Average rose 105.11 points or 0.25% at

Michael Saylor says Bitcoin is ‘going to $1mn’. Saylor spoke with Bloomberg. Saylor is head of BTC hoarding firm Strategy, says on BTC: “Winter is not coming back” “We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million.” said that the growing number of public companies purchasing Bitcoin are buying

As a whole, that’s down considerably from the 4.7% reading in 2024. The first quarter of 2025 also shows a notable drop in negotiated wages, down to 4.6% from 5.4% in the final quarter of 2024. Slowing wages will just bolster the ECB’s policy path and painted narrative on the inflation outlook. Here’s the latest

Both sides should enhance consensus, maintain communication China is not willing to fight but not afraid to do so if needed This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Europe has now awakened to the importance of AI data factories. We are building AI technology centers in seven different countries. Europe is building 20 more AI factories that are gigafactories. In two years, Europe’s AI computing capacity will increase by a factor of 10. Last week, we got reports that Nvidia was going to

Prior -3.9% Market index 254.6 vs 226.4 prior Purchase index 170.9 vs 155.0 prior Refinance index 707.4 vs 611.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.93% vs 6.92% prior After weeks of slumping, mortgage applications bounced back strongly in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activities surging higher. The jump in the purchase index in

Treasury Secretary Bessent is back in Washington and made his scheduled testimony appointment on Capitol Hill. In addition to speaking about the China deal, he adds on the economy, that: Capital investments will increase once tax and spending bill is enacted. Just ahead is a interview with commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick on CNBC This article

Earlier, we noted that Trump spoke in a New York Post podcast and said he was much less confident in a nuclear deal with Iran. That has led to strong gains in crude with WTI up $1.25 to $66.23. “They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame, but I’m less confident now

Trump will sign three resolutions on Thursday abolishing California’s electric vehicle sales mandates and diesel engine rules US politics site Politico with the report. more to come I wonder if its personal? At least some of it. Regardless, TSLA shareholders will be paying attention to this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the first vehicle to autonomously drive itself from the factory directly to a customer’s home is scheduled for June 28 public Robotaxi rides are tentatively set to begin on June 22 Musk wants some sizzle back in TSLA after his political distractions. Earlier news on EVs: Trump to sign three

Upbeat comments from Lutnick and stocks are quickly higher with the S&P 500 touching the highs of the day. We will try to finish things tonight Talks could go into tomorrow if needed “We’re working on all sorts of trade issues. I think the talks are going really well,” he told press outside of Lancaster

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0900/0500 Keynote speech followed by fireside chat by ECB board member Claudia Buch at Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Buch is Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board 0930/0530 Panel participation by ECB board member Philip Lane at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland Philip

The USDJPY rallied ahead of the US CPI release but stalled after reaching the 50% retracement of the decline from the May high. Once the weaker-than-expected CPI data was released, sellers took control, pushing the pair sharply lower. The decline broke below the 38.2% retracement level at 144.651 and the 100-hour moving average, currently at

Just as Tesla was starting to bounce back after months of intense scrutiny, fueled mainly by Elon Musk’s deepening involvement in politics, another storm has hit. And this time, it’s personal. Musk took a jab at Donald Trump, and surprise, surprise: Tesla’s stock took a hit, subsequently impacting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. In short,

The NZDUSD moved higher following the weaker-than-expected US CPI report, which triggered broad USD weakness and lifted the pair toward the highs for the week. However, the rally lost steam just as price tested the upper end of the recent range, failing to break through resistance near 0.6070. Technically, the dip earlier in the day

Futures rollover refers to the process where traders close out positions in the expiring contract and open new ones in the next available contract. This is crucial for traders in U.S. equity index futures, such as the S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ), Dow Jones (YM), and Russell 2000 (RTY), as these contracts have set

Headline CPI: CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% expected (some forecasts were 2.4%) Prior was +2.9% m/m reading at +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (unrounded consensus was +0.16%) Month-over-month unrounded +0.081% vs +0.221% prior Core CPI: Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.9% expected Core CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (some forecasts were +0.27%) Core unrounded +0.130% vs +0.237%

Less confident about Iran deal. Crude oil prices are surging on this comment made in a New York Post Podcast interview. Unfortunately it was reported a bit later by the newswires, so those who caught the interview managed to capitalise on the move (this is why the big boys invest so heavily in information. That’s

US headline CPI rose 2.4% y/y in line with some forecasts but below the 2.5% consensus and down from 2.9% prior. Monthly CPI was up 0.1% (unrounded +0.081%), also softer than expected. Core CPI increased 2.8% y/y (vs 2.9% expected) with a monthly gain of 0.1% (unrounded +0.130%), showing continued disinflation. Key drivers included declines

Well, it looks like the tensions are behind us. At some point, it looked like a real risk for the economy as a whole as Musk could try to block the Trump’s tax bill. That’s what led to the selloff in risk assets that eventually got erased as things started to improve. This article was

Global equities are likely to trend higher over the next three months U.S. stocks possibly playing catch-up to other markets medium-term outlook is less certain Near-term upward bias is supported by a resilient macro backdrop and muted fallout from recent tariffs. Balance of risks worsens beyond the Q3: with equity markets already near their highs,

This idea has been floated multiple times over past years. Its getting a redo in the headlines again today. Sichuan province city Mianyang is considering a 2.5-day weekend businesses to close on Friday afternoons, along with Saturdays and Sundays Mianyang is the second-largest city in Sichuan province in terms of gross domestic product, it has

IF China will uphold its end of the initial Geneva trade agreement, a ‘big, beautiful rebalancing’ of US and China economies is possible I think ‘possible’ is doing a lot of work here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is out with a message on Truth Social about the deal with China. Naturally, he wrote it in all caps: OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO

The US CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM ET with the expectation of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core. That data may be the catalyst for more price action in the currency markets. In today’s video, I break down the latest movements in the US dollar against three of

The EURUSD is trading higher after a softer-than-expected US CPI report triggered a broad USD selloff. The weaker inflation data reinforced market expectations for rate cuts, pushing the pair sharply higher. However, the rally stalled just below the key resistance from last week’s high, with today’s peak reaching 1.1489—just shy of the 1.14935 high from

German DAX futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes as S&P 500 futures are also seen down 0.3% on the day. So far, we only know that the US and China have agreed on a plan/framework to ease tensions a bit more moving forward. The expectation is that it will involve an exchange of

We’ve witnessed a pretty bad spat between Musk and Trump last week on social media with both of them firing shots at each other. At some point, Musk might have gone too far claiming that Trump was on Epstein files. Nonetheless, this looks like an apology and the worst might be behind us. It’s hard

Prior month -4.1% revised to -5.3% Building permits for April -6.6% vs 2.0% estimate. Much worse than expectations on the month and revision. The USDCAD has moved lower as the market is paying attention to the lower US CPI data initially at least. That is driving the USD against ALL the major currencies. A look

Trump is tweeting up a storm this morning: Adding to the China readout, President XI and I are going to work closely together to open up China to American Trade. This would be a great WIN for both countries!!! Let’s see what comes next. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Cut last week helps keep price undershoot temporary. Again more focus on the risk of undershooting on their inflation target. The market expects just one final rate cut in December. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.6% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% as investors are still digesting what may come from the final details of the US-China trade talks in London over the past two days. Coming up later, we also have

Quite likely keeping 2% inflation will require some further cuts for fine tuning. Market pricing of one more cut or so not out of the realm of the baseline. Fine-tuning cuts will very much depend on how the economy develops. May at some point, not yet by any means, go into accommodative territory. Must be

An official cited by Bloomberg: Trump will hold new China tariffs at 30% 10% baseline 20% fentanyl Total effective tariff rate will be 55% I don’t understand how the math here works. Update from a Bloomberg reporter: I’m told the “55%” he cites here is the status quo – no change from last month’s truce.

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TradeLocker is the next-gen trading platform built by listening to the needs of traders, brokers, and prop firms that refuse to trade in the past. It emerged as a response to the lack of innovation in the trading industry. Mainstream trading platforms failed to engage directly with their user base and lacked an intuitive interface

1000 GMT/0600 US Eastern time – Speech by Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at Bank of England Nathanael Benjamin at the Global investment management summit ‘Delivering financial stability and economic growth for investment management This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fintech360 has had a banner year, and continuing their string of achievements is a prestigious nomination for the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2025. The company’s excitement isn’t unwarranted; these awards are considered some of the industry’s most credible and transparent, since the winners are voted for by the public. Although the competition is fierce in the

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level once more. The expiries are likely to keep price action more limited in the session ahead, centered around the figure level with the 200-hour moving average at 1.1404 helping to

Seems like talks are not proceeding that quickly despite Trump saying that his previous 50% tariff threat sped up the process. The US-China talks are a testament to that as they haven’t reached a deal but just a framework to implement the Geneva agreements. Of course, this shouldn’t be a surprise given that this stuff

Nasdaq Technical Analysis with tradeCompass for Today (June 11, 2025) Current Nasdaq Futures Price: $21,893 Nasdaq Analysis Today: Market Context & Directional Bias At the time of this Nasdaq analysis, futures are trading at $21,882. Today’s tradeCompass suggests patience for traders, recommending waiting for a retracement into our defined bullish entry zone between $21,850 (June

Government making utmost efforts to overcome rising prices Cannot agree on call to reduce consumption tax rate It will take a long time to adjust system for lower consumption tax rate on food It is not true that government is mulling providing cash handouts Sharp rises in JGB yields have undesirable impact on economy, fiscal

Will protect auto industry, no plans to sacrifice agriculture in exchange It sounds like their stance hasn’t changed whatsoever even after the numerous weeks of visits by Akazawa to Washington. Tick tock, tick tock. 29 days to go. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The GBPUSD made a bold push to fresh highs not seen since 2022, but momentum stalled just shy of the critical 50% retracement level from the 2014 high near 1.3768. Now the price is back in the thick of the old swing area between 1.3411 and 1.3514, and traders are battling it out for control.

US, Mexico are closing in on a deal that would remove President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain volume – Bloomberg News with the info. No further details at present. More: US and Mexico are nearing a deal to remove Trump’s 50% steel tariffs in exchange for a cap on

A federal appeals court has ruled that former Trump’s broad tariffs can remain in effect while legal appeals continue. The decision temporarily suspends a lower court ruling that found Trump exceeded his authority by imposing the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — a law typically used for national security sanctions. The

BofA and Morgan Stanley expect May’s US CPI report to show a modest rise in both headline and core inflation. While headline pressures remain subdued, core inflation is expected to stay firm, reinforcing the view that disinflation will be slow and uneven, keeping the Fed on hold. Key Points: BofA Forecast: Headline CPI: +0.2% m/m

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Bessent says he has to go back to DC to testify before Congress Greer and Lutnick will carry on with trade talks We have had 2 days of productive talks, talks are ongoing Talks will be continuing as needed Bessent. Bessent’s departure raises the possibility that talks are not going well

Fundamental Overview The USD remains mostly rangebound even though the better than expected NFP report triggered a slightly more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and sent Treasury yields higher. The next two key events for the greenback are the US CPI today and the FOMC decision next week. The dollar will need hawkish stuff

Global investors are increasingly turning to Japan’s long-dated government bonds, drawn by rising yields and heavy supply, according to Morgan Stanley. With the Bank of Japan scaling back bond purchases and local institutions not stepping in to buy, 30- and 40-year JGB yields have reached new highs — creating attractive opportunities for overseas buyers from

Boeing urges Trump administration to ensure tariff-free treatment for airplanes, parts as condition of any new trade deal China, Mexico, European Union, Japan urge Trump administration not to impose new national security tariffs on imported planes, parts Info via news wires citing filings with Commerce This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

And that’s about it. After two days of long talks, both sides are content to work out a plan or framework to ease tensions just that little bit more. The headlines in case you missed them: Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang says talks with US on trade rational, candid Lutnick says reached a framework

Trump is set to sign three congressional resolutions that overturn California’s ambitious electric vehicle (EV) and emissions regulations, according to sources familiar with the matter. Headlines on this from earlier are here, but no further details were added: Trump to sign three resolutions on Thursday canning California’s electric vehicle mandates The move targets California’s plan

The PPI data comes from the Bank of Japan. Producer Price Index (YoY) (May) +3.2% expected 3.5%, prior 4.0% Producer Price Index (MoM) (May) -0.2% expected 0.2%, prior 0.2% Yesterday Bank of Japan Governor Ueda expressed worry about inflation (at the consumer level) falling short of his 2% taregt: Underlying inflation still below 2% This

The US dollar is attracting a few bids with a lower EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP. CAD, yen and CHF are little changed. Earlier we had the news out of London: Lutnick says reached a framework with China, if approved will implement Geneva agreement The US and China agreed in Geneva last month to lower tariffs.

Former Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr resigned suddenly in March 2025, just weeks before the government announced a 25% funding cut to the central bank. Newly released documents confirm Orr stepped down after determining the bank could no longer fulfill its mandate under the reduced budget, which had been agreed to by

Lutnick: Talks are going really well, hope they end this evening World Bank cuts 2025 global growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points Bessent might shift from Treasury to Fed chair – report US treasury auctions $58B of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.972% Drill, baby, drill? US agency sees US oil prodcution

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda except a few ECB speakers. In the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.9% vs 2.8% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior. Inflation is expected to

Ethereum (ETH) Futures: Comprehensive Analysis & Institutional Bullish Signals The past weeks have seen Ethereum (ETH) futures steadily gaining momentum, marked by increasing trading volumes and institutional inflows. The evolving landscape of Ethereum ETFs further supports a bullish short-term narrative, driving increased optimism among crypto traders and investors. This article provides a detailed technical and

Some positive news out of the US-China trade talks in London. The framework agreement reached depends on Trump approving it. I can’t see why not, unless he is one of his moods. Bolding is mine, looks positive, but it is clear its not yet a trade deal. Still, have to start somewhere, right?: U.S. Commerce

No one expects BOJ to raise rates at policy meeting next week 30 of 58 economists (52%) expect rates to stay unchanged through year-end (previously 48%) 40 of 51 economists (78%) expect at least one rate hike by March 2026 17 of 31 economists (55%) see BOJ slowing down bond buying from April 2026 onwards

Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang : talks with U.S. had involved in depth exchanges communication has been rational and candid two sides agreed a consensus on Geneva meeting two sides agreed a consensus on Geneva meeting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A Bloomberg survey shows most economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during its June 17 meeting and begin slowing the pace of government bond purchase reductions. While no rate move is anticipated, the main focus will be the BOJ’s plan for quantitative tightening, as bond market volatility

Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today. It measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan: Data published by the Bank of Japan covers services such as transportation and communication, finance and insurance, wholesale and retail trade, and others

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced an immediate rise in military spending to 2% of GDP yesterday (from 1.37%) and said it would rise from there. He also suggested there would be an effort to source more from the domestic market, rather than importing it from the United States. The jump this year means $9

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is forecasting a 4% decline in Chinese steel production for 2025. This projection is influenced by the shift away from infrastructure-heavy development and government policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions China’s steel production has been on a downward trajectory since 2021, when Beijing began imposing annual growth caps

Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to push up goods prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core inflation likely to rise even as pressures in labour, housing, and autos moderate. In Wednesday’s May CPI report, the bank forecasts a modest tariff-related impact, nudging core inflation up 0.05 percentage points to 0.25% month-on-month. Looking ahead,

RBC keeps its EUR/USD forecasts conservative, with an end-Q2 target of 1.14 and end-Q3 at 1.15. Despite bullish sentiment and positioning, RBC sees limited upside in the near term as catalysts lose momentum and both the Fed and ECB appear steady on policy. Key Points: Conservative Forecasts: RBC leaves its end-Q2 EUR/USD target unchanged at

The US and Mexico are nearing an agreement to eliminate President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on a pre-determined volume of steel imports, according to sources familiar with the discussions cited by Bloomberg. The deal would update a similar arrangement made during Trump’s first term. I think Canada and the US are set for a similar

Via oilprice.com twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2 mn barrels Distillates +0.8 mn bbls Gasoline +0.9 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

I have been highlighting a potential invterted head-and-shoulders pattern on the WTI crude oil chart but today was a setback, or at least a false start. Crude rose to as high as $66.28 in a two-month high but turned around in US trading and settled 31-cents lower to $64.98. The EIA released a report highlighting

The Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes at 1:00 PM ET, launching this week’s coupon supply calendar. Results will be closely watched, with investor demand measured against the 5-key component 6 month auction averages. Metrics to watch vs 6-auction avg: Tail: 6- month avg. 0.5bps. The difference between the high yield and the

Prior 95.8 The 98.8 figure is slightly above the 51-year average of 98. Expected business conditions and sales expectations contributed the most to the rise in the index. The Uncertainty Index rose two points from April to 94. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points

The NZDUSD remains firm helped by hopes for a US/China deal that would help to benefit both countries (presumingly) and give the NZ economy a boost too. Technically, the pair trades near its highest levels of the year, with price action holding above a strong technical cluster that includes: The rising 100-hour MA at 0.6037

Is the AUDUSD setting up for a breakout or a reversal? The chart shows a powerful confluence of resistance just ahead. Tap the video above to see the levels that could define the next major move in this currency pair. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The race to replace Jerome Powell hasn’t truly kicked off yet but there is some positioning in the background. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has emerged as a candidate, according to Bloomberg. Powell’s term doesn’t end until May 2026 and he was nominated (by Trump) on November 2, 2017 so the timeline is still long. The

Prior -8.1 That’s a surprise beat as investor sentiment showed an upturn in Germany notably for June. The sentiment index for Germany might still be negative at -5.9 but that’s the highest reading since March 2022. All in all, it points to the initial shock from Trump tariffs slowly subsiding as the expectations index also

The major US stock indices are trading to new session highs and new highs for the week. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are up nearly 0.4% on the day. The Dow industrial average is up 0.27% The US treasury will auction off for your notes imminently with the WI yield trading at 3.968% This

High Yield: 3.972% WI level at the time of the auction: 3.968% Tail: 0.4 bps vs. 6- month avg. 0.5bps. The difference between the high yield and the when-issued yield (pre-auction market rate. A negative tail is indication of strong bidding. A positive tail implies less demand Bid-to-Cover: 2.52X vs 6-month avg. 2.62x. Total bids

The overtime negotiations puts into question Treas Sec. Bessents Congressional testimony scheduled for tomorrow This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A US official cited by Reuters says talks have concluded. We will now wait for headlines to find out what was achieved, if anything. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A US official is saying that the US/China talks are ongoing. They are working out technical details. I guess that is good news. Not so good news is that a Senior Administration official is saying Iran appears to be dragging negotiations on without concrete progress. They continue to push forward with nuclear efforts. This article

Fundamental Overview Gold remains mostly rangebound as the market continues to wait for a catalyst to pick a direction. This week the main events are the US-China trade talks in London and the release of the US CPI report. On the trade talks side, the expected positive outcome will likely keep a lid on further

The US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says US-China talks were fruitful US Sec of Treasury Bessant added Talks says they had a good meeting. Trump adds: China is not easy but we are doing well with China. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Indian and US negotiators made progress in their latest round of talks focused on access for industrial and some agricultural goods, tariffs and non-tariff barriers, according to a Reuters report citing Indian government sources. The report came after four days of talks but it’s not at the finish line yet and “negotiations will continue”. The

The USD remained mostly rangebound following the better than expected NFP report where hot wage growth figures triggered a slightly more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and sent Treasury yields higher. That wasn’t enough to lift the greenback though and traders are now focusing on the next key events including the US-China trade talks,

Reuters Poll on US Fed rate path and the economy shows: 59 out of 105 economists in a Reuters poll expects the Fed to resume rate cuts next quarter, likely in September. Over 60% of those polled see the Fed cutting rates at least twice in 2025. U.S. economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from May:

S&P 500 futures are up 9 points or 0.15% ahead of the open with Nasdaq futures up by about the same margin. Shares of Apple are flat in the pre-market after falling yesterday on a poor reception from its annual developer event. Tesla shares are up 2% after an impressive turnaround yesterday and eyes are

US May NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 95.9 expected Lutnick: Talks with China are going well ECB’s Rehn: We will take decisions meeting by meeting Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence +0.2 vs -6.0 expected SNB total sight deposits w.e. 6 June CHF 438.1 bn vs CHF 444.9 bn prior ECB’s Villeroy: We will

Morgan Stanley is sticking with its bullish stance on Tesla, reiterating an Overweight rating and $410 price target even as the stock comes under pressure following CEO Elon Musk’s public spat with former President Donald Trump. In a note to clients, the bank acknowledged the recent volatility but downplayed long-term risks, including concerns around EV

After a failed breakdown below the 200-hour MA earlier today that led to a snapback rallly, the EURUSD buyers have reclaimed short-term control on a break of the 100 hour MA. The question now is “Can the 100-hour MA now hold support and keep the buyers in control? See what targets are in play next

There is a real divergence of opinion shaping up between central banks and some forecasters. Today the World Bank drastically cuts its forecasts for advanced economies and warned of a stagnant global economy in H2. Meanwhile, ECB members are talking like the rate cutting cycle is nearly over and market pricing has just one more

So much for ‘drill, baby, drill’. The EIA now forecasts that US 2026 oil production will be lower than 2025. 2025 forecast of 13.42 mbpd steady 2026 cut to 13.37 mbpd from 13.49 previously 2025 demand at 20.4 mbpd vs 20.5 prior Natural gas demand steady at 91.3 bcf/day 2025 world oil demand at 103.5

USD/CAD perked up to 1.3728 in Asian trade but has since retreated back to 1.3689, slightly lower on the day. I spoke with Reuters yesterday about what I see are increasing signs of a US-Canada trade deal; something that could lead to more-sustained selling in USD/CAD and broader Canadian dollar gains. “I see an abundance

Sector Overview Technology: The tech sector is facing a downturn today, with major players such as Microsoft (MSFT) dipping by 0.66% and Oracle (ORCL) declining by 0.78%. Palantir (PLTR), however, remains slightly better with a negligible 0.18% loss. These performance numbers reflect the current cautious investor sentiment toward tech. Semiconductors: While Nvidia (NVDA) sees a

Domestic sight deposits CHF 426.3 bn vs CHF 434.3 bn prior That’s a modest drop in Swiss sight deposits, with the overall figure down to its lowest since the end of February. This follows from weeks of steadier numbers over the last few months. Let’s see what the next few weeks indicate to be sure

From Von Der Leyen: We are ramping up pressure on Russia with 18th package of sanctions Sanctions target energy and banking Proposes restrictions on Nord Stream pipeline The current price cap is $60, though its effectiveness and enforcement is spotty. Brent is currently trading at $67.26. Crude looks like it could be breaking out today,

The USDCAD has been under steady pressure since peaking near the 200-day moving average on May 13 near 1.4015. That level capped the corrective rally, and the pair has been trending lower since, with last week’s low reaching 1.36337 on Thursday. A modest rebound on Friday was followed by volatile, choppy trading on Monday. Today,

As mentioned yesterday, the negative supply side news in the past weeks, have been faded over and over again in a sign that the market has factored that in and it’s now looking through it. The thing to watch is the demand side now. We’ve been in a global easing cycle for some time now,

China vice president Han Zheng met with French President Emmanuel Macron in France – Chinese Foreign Ministry China is ready to work with EU to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations China vice president Han Zheng, at United Nations Ocean Conference: China will carry out bilateral and multilateral cooperation

Cable has completed the round trip following a soft May jobs report. Unemployment rose to the highest since 2020 and payrolls fell by 109K. That led to a quick fall to 1.3460 from 1.3535 but the pair has slowly recovered. Some of the bounce is broader US dollar weakness and the pound is still the

The talks yesterday lasted for nearly 7 hours. And Lutnick just said that the talks today are expected to go “all day”. So, we can only wait and see now. Again as mentioned, the expectation is for China to ease rare earth export controls and the US to do the same for key technology. This

Goldman Sachs revises its EUR/USD forecasts upward, citing relative equity underperformance for EUR-based investors, diminishing foreign appetite for US assets, and a confirmed slowdown in US economic activity. Key Points: USD-Based Underperformance: US equities may appear flat in USD terms, but for EUR investors, they are down 8% YTD, making EU equities relatively more attractive.

Cuts US growth forecast by 0.9 pp to 1.4%, cuts 2026 forecast by 0.4 pp Advanced economies growth seen at 1.2% vs 1.7% Eurozone seen at 0.7% vs 1.0% Emerging and developing economies seen at 3.8% vs 4.1% China forecast unchanged at 4.5%, notes that Beijing has fiscal space Current decade could see slowest growth

Bitcoin eventually broke above the key resistance zone highlighted yesterday here. From a fundamental perspective, bitcoin and stocks remain skewed to the upside due to positive growth expectations amid de-escalating trade war and global fiscal and monetary easing. There are mainly three risks for the cryptocurrency ahead: the failure of Trump’s tax bill, renewed trade

The USDCHF pair continues to respect technical boundaries, with the high price today stalling at 0.82415, just ahead of the key resistance ceiling at 0.8249—a level that capped rallies several times last week. As long as price remains below this zone, sellers retain short-term control. The pullback from today’s high has brought the pair down

Aside from GBP weakness following the soft jobs report, the FX market is largely unmoved so far today. There also isn’t anything on the economic calendar that might shake that up. There is no US economic data or Fed talk and the only notable event is a 3-year Treasury auction. Instead, eyes will be on

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX -0.2% France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% There’s still much to play for as we await the conclusion of the US-China trade talks in London later today. US futures are also looking more tepid now, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% on the

Expect talks to continue all day on Tuesday The talks yesterday lasted for nearly 7 hours, so I reckon we can expect more of the same today. All eyes are on the details and outcome, with expectations that we should see some easing on export controls as noted here. This article was written by Justin

Nomura expects a rebound in China’s U.S.-bound exports in June, citing a surge in container bookings and freight rates as signs of a recovery following recent trade disruptions. The logistics network, disrupted by a near trade embargo, is expected to take several weeks to normalize, contributing to a delayed but stronger pickup in exports. Risks

The dollar is keeping steadier today, holding little changed as we look towards European trading. That follows from a bit of softness yesterday, eating into the Friday gains after the US jobs report. For the new week though, market players are waiting with bated breath on US-China trade talks in London. The discussions yesterday were

The USD is little changed and mixed to start the trading day and as the 2nd day of the US/China talks get underway in London. Commerece Sec. Lutnick was on the wires saying the discussions are “going well” and were “fruitful”. Tomorrow US CPI will be a key release for the week in the US.

After the first day of talks yesterday, there are positive murmurs but again it is only from the US side. Trump said that he was only getting “good reports” from his team while Lutnick and Bessent also said that the talks went well. The meeting seems to be more focused on export controls with both

The major indices are closing the day with modest changes. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Nasdaq rose 61.28 points or 0.31% at 19591.24 S&P rose 5.52 points or 0.09% at 6005.88 Dow fell -1.11 points or -0.00% at 42761.76 Shares of Apple fell -$2.47 or -1.21% at $201.45 after an uninspiring WWDC 2025

The partnership that started in 2023 is back for another round. B2BINPAY, the all-in-one crypto ecosystem for business, is renewing its official sponsorship of Athletic Club through 2025, staying proudly on the team’s sleeve. After a bright 2024/25 season in which Athletic Club secured fourth place in La Liga (Spain’s top national league), the club

We have another light day on the agenda as we just get a couple of low tier indicators. The most notable economic release of the day was the UK Employment report, which came out on the softer side. The focus will remain on the US-China trade talks which are expected to resume at 10am London

Will go according to the data flow Will be as agile as necessary Policy and inflation are now in a favourable zone But that doesn’t mean that the ECB is static Nothing new there be Villeroy with no rate cuts expected through the summer by the ECB at this stage. This article was written by

The sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran will take place either on Friday in Oslo or on Sunday in Muscat. The heads up comes via an Axios reporter. — Seems to be a never ending cycle of talks. Oil traders will have to keep an eye on these, anything that brings

US May CPI data is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. Both headline and Core are expected higher from the previous month. The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos gives a sneak peek of what analysts expect: Its not just CPI that is expected to be higher for longer: Deutsche

I’m trying to scour for headlines leading to the drop here but I’m not seeing much of anything. The only one that roughly fits the timeline is Israel striking the docks in Yemen’s port city again, but that hardly ever mattered to broader market sentiment before. USD/JPY has also dipped slightly from 144.90 to 144.60

The UK rate futures now price in 46 bps of easing for the BoE in 2025 vs 39 bps before the labour market report. The jobs report showed the largest monthly drop in payrolls since May 2020 and we’ve also got an easing in wage growth. All things that would keep the doves at the

Headline comments here: Japan fin min Kato says will conduct fiscal policy appropriately A little more now (via Reuters): Japanese Finance Minister Kato said on Tuesday that the government will conduct appropriate debt management policies while communicating closely with market participants. Tokyo may cut super-long bond issuance and explore buybacks to manage rising yields. “It’s

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Bank has limited room to support growth with rate cuts Australian May 2025 Business confidence +2, prior -1 China vice president Han Zheng says ready to work with EU re China-EU relations PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1840 (vs. estimate at 7.1853) More on Japanese

Prior 4.5% Employment change 89k vs 50k expected Prior 112k Average weekly earnings +5.3% vs +5.5% 3m/y expected Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.6% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.2% vs +5.3% 3m/y expected Prior +5.6%; revised to +5.5% May payrolls change -109k Prior -33k; revised to -55k The monthly drop in payrolls is the most

Must avoid complacency over inflation outlook Must focus on keeping inflation expectations at 2% The commentary fits with their stance from the last meeting, that is to keep the flexibility open. But as things stand, there should be no rate cut to follow in July. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Greg had the news earlier: Commerce Sec. Lutnick: US /China talks were fruitful Bloomberg: US/China trade talks will continue tomorrow in London ICYMI: US-China trade talks will extend to a second day set to resume at 10 am London time on Tuesday Trump said he was “only getting good reports” from his team in London,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Australia May 2025 business conditions index falls to 0 vs +2 in April (long-run average is around +6) 0 is a 4.5 year low Business confidence index rises to +2 vs -1 in April Some of the sub measures: sales index +5 in May vs. +6 in April employment index 0 vs 4 in April

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

I think Japanese Finance Minister Kato is trying to be reassuring. Says will appropriately conduct fiscal policy Need for a variety of investors to hold JGBs Need to broaden investors in Japanese Government Bonds Need to start promoting domestic ownership of JGBs Such comments are not reassuring me, not sure about anyone else though. This

ECB’s Holzmann Pause in cutting rates could last a while, if economic data worsens there could be more cuts I am moderately optimistic on what will happen with Trump and tariffs The inflation goal already in reach Robert Holzmann is Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member. He was

Eyes on global developments rather than local data still. None of these below are likely to move around major FX too much. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case

Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ): Structured Intraday Trade Setup Nasdaq Price Coming Close to the Possible Fill (Long): The Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ) are currently trading at approximately 21,913, setting the stage for an intraday buying opportunity, contingent on precise entry conditions. Trade Entry and Risk Management: Traders eyeing today’s session can consider a potential

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures +0.1% The broader market mood will be eyeing the details and outcome of US-China talks in London later today of course. There was a bit of a light pullback for US futures in the past hour here. So, that’s also tempering with the mood music a little going

US military to deploy 700 Marines to LA temporarily until Nat. Guard arrives Marine being deployed are only expected to be a support role; No innocation of the Insurrection Act. The Insurrection Act is a U.S. federal law that allows the President to deploy military forces within the United States to suppress civil disorder, insurrection,

Deutsche Bank strategists caution that as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are pushed further out, the resulting higher borrowing costs are set to pressure U.S. companies more acutely. So far, default activity has been mostly limited to distressed debt exchanges, often with relatively high recovery rates—thanks in part to ongoing hopes for a soft

Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for June 2025 rises 0.5% m/m to 92.6 May was down 2.2% to 92.1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1425 levels. Similar to yesterday, that should help to lock price action more intact until we get a change in broader sentiment from US-China trade talks. The 200-hour moving average

An ICYMI from Japan on Monday. Media reports that some LDP members are reportedly considering universal cash handouts to help households cope with the rising cost of living. The context is that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has directed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to include ambitious economic targets in its upcoming election platform.

Crude oil futures settled at $65.29 on the day, up $0.71 or 1.10%. The session high reached $65.39, just above the closing level, while the low extended down to $64.22. The modest but meaningful gain reflects a rebound in bullish sentiment following recent consolidation. On the daily chart, today’s move is technically significant. The price

Japan PM Ishiba, US President Trump to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines of G7 summit in Canada. Japanese media, Kyodo, with the report. It’d be weird if they didn’t meet! Officials representing Japan the US are busily trying to work out an agreeable trade deal. Multiple countries are trying to secure trade deals with

UK consumer spending growth eased significantly in May following a strong April, with new data showing signs that rising household bills and ongoing economic uncertainty are beginning to curb shopper enthusiasm. According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), total retail sales rose just 1.0% year-on-year in May, a steep drop from the 7.0% increase recorded

Goldman Sachs says recent market trends indicate growing investor confidence in the economic outlook, as cyclical, growth-linked sectors have been outperforming more defensive, safety-focused stocks. This rotation reflects optimism around the recovery—but also increases vulnerability if upcoming macroeconomic data disappoint. The bank noted that while this positioning leaves equities exposed to short-term setbacks, investor sentiment

National Bank of Slovakia (Národná banka Slovenska), and therefore a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, Governor Peter Kazimir. He was writing in an opinion piece. His central message is that the Bank is nearly done, if not so already, with its rate cut cycle. “As things stand now, I think we’re nearly done with,

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking in the Japanese parliament. If economy, prices come under strong downward pressure, BOJ has limited room to underpin growth with rate cuts with short-term rate still at 0.5% Underlying inflation still below 2% BOJ keeping real interest rate negative so underlying inflation achieves 2%, and keeps inflation sustainably

Bitcoin has been bid since the end of last week and its risen even further. There is no fresh news or catalyst apart from what has already been posted. The final candle in the chart looks a little scary for the bulls, good luck if you are shorting to though! This article was written by

Citigroup moved its US rate cut forecast to September from July expects three cuts this year instead of four expects 75bp of rate cuts this year instead of 100 expect a 25bp rate cut in each of September, October and December forecasts two rate cuts of 25 bps each in January and March of 2026

New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis wants the Reserve Bank of New Zealand central bank to increase the frequency of its rate decisions. Info comes via Bloomberg (gated), in brief: Willis wants the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to meet eight times a year, aligning with other major central banks and ending its long

The AUDUSD is trading up about 0.51% in trading today, making it one of the biggest movers of the day. The price is currently trading between two important swing areas on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support lies between 0.6500 and 0.6514, which has a number of swing highs or lows over the last few weeks

The talks between US and CHina officials are done for the day after 6 hours and 40 minutes, and will continue tomorrow in London. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US major indices close with modest changes ECB’s Holzmann says rate cut pause could last a while, data dependent US Military to deploy 700 Marines to LA temporarily until Nat. Guard arrive Commerce Sec. Lutnick: US /China talks were fruitful US crude oil futures settle at $65.29. Price is above the midpoint since 2021 Bloomberg:

The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) has so far lacked meaningful AI-related announcements, with only vague comments that AI features are “coming” for developers. In response, Apple’s stock is trading lower, down $3.25 (-1.61%) at $200.70. From a technical perspective, today’s decline pushes the price below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which sit

The diffusion index climbed slightly in May, owing a better trend among households with an increase in retail-related activity. The trend for businesses declined on the month amid easing conditions in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, there were also better prospects on the employment front. The outlook index was seen at 44.8, up from 42.7 in

Prior was 0.0% Sales +0.1% vs +0.6% prior (revised to +0.8%) This is low tier data but it’s an important component in GDP and should lead to an uptick in Q2 estimates. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Three-year ahead expected inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior Five year inflation 2.6% vs 2.7% prior Home price rise seen at 3.0% vs 3.2% prior Food prices seen +5.5% — highest since Oct 2023 Outlook on job market improved in May Expectations of missing debt payments fell Full report This is a good sign for the

Reuters reports that a new Boeing 737 MAX landed in China today as the US-China trade war continues to ease. For context, Boeing halted deliveries of new planes to China in April when the US-China trade war escalated significantly. At the end of May though, the company said that deliveries would resume in June after

Credit Agricole questions whether the ECB genuinely desires a stronger euro, despite its recent outperformance. While officials have highlighted the EUR’s international role, the bank warns that continued strength could undermine growth and inflation targets. Key Points: EUR Among Top G10 Performers in Q2:The euro has been a key beneficiary of USD bearishness, supported by

The latest Atlanta Fed GDP tracker matches the June 5 reading at 3.8%. “After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast

Last month featured a wave of predictions about $40 oil after OPEC+ announced fresh production hikes but it hasn’t unfolded that way. For one, there is increasing optimism about global growth in light Trump’s climb-down on Liberation Day tariffs. In addition, the actual barrels that have flowed into the market have been smaller than feared.

In today’s dynamic stock market, the technology sector emerged as a clear leader driven by standout performances, while the financial sector faced headwinds. This article explores today’s market trends and identifies key players shaping the trading day. 📈 Technology Sector: Nvidia surges Nvidia (NVDA) soared by 1.84%, spearheading a broader uptick in the technology sector.

The Australian dollar is up 30 pips to 0.6521; that’s just 17 pips from last week’s high. If that level can break, it will bring AUD/USD to the highest levels since November. In focus are US-China trade talks and the implications for global growth if the world’s two-largest economies can repair their relationship. Notably, AUD/USD

Last week, USDCAD fell to its lowest level since October 2024, with the pair reaching a low of 1.3534 on Thursday before rebounding modestly on Friday. As seen on the daily chart, the decline started from around 1.4015 on May 13, following a test of the 200-day moving average (green line). The move down briefly

The WSJ reports that Trump gave US negotiators room to lift technology export controls to China, surely in exchange for China lifting rare earth export controls. “I expect this to be a short meeting with a big strong handshake,” Kevin Hassett told CNBC earlier today. The WSJ reports: The products covered by recent U.S. restrictions—never

I see clear downside risks to growth But it would be a mistake to neglect upside risks to inflation We need to keep all options open Data through the summer will indicate whether fine-tuning will be needed The comments aren’t anything new. But on a personal level despite being convicted with bribery/corruption, he is still

Canada has made the earlier reporters official: It will boost defense spending to 2% of GDP this year, meeting the NATO target. The spending will go towards new submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles and artillery as well as new radar systems, PM Mark Carney said. The boost in spending comes 5 years ahead of schedule

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel spoke earlier on Sunday and said: We are no longer restrictive I believe that we can now take the time to look at the situation first We now have maximum flexibility Several ‘ECB sources’ reports after last week’s decision indicated that policymakers are planning to pause at the July

USD/CNY has been sagging lately but there is no real drama here. Chinese and US officials are meeting on Monday in London. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US yields are moving to new lows for the day with the 2 year at 4.001% -4.2 basis points 5 year at 4.082%, -4.4 basis points 10 year at 4.479%, -3.0 basis points 30 year at 4.956%, -0.7 basis points. This week, the US treasury will auction 3, 10 and 30-year coupon issues as part

BA Eyes Bull Flag Breakout: What Traders Need to Watch Boeing (BA) is catching the eye of traders right now, and here’s why: it looks like it’s setting up for a potential bull flag breakout. After that gap-up following earnings back in April, BA has been grinding higher in a pretty clear ascending channel. Even

For now at least, the dollar is holding lower as the woes continue for the currency. USD/JPY is down 0.5% to near 144.00 after backing away from another run up to 145.00 at the end of last week. Meanwhile, AUD/USD buyers are starting to test the waters for a firmer break above the 0.6500 mark

After the visit last week, Akazawa said that they made “progress” but did not disclose what that entailed. That before reaffirming that Japan’s stance of wanting tariffs to be removed hasn’t changed whatsoever. It seems like we’re still not finding any breakthroughs just yet. Tick tock, tick tock. 31 days to go. This article was

The USDCHF saw two-way price action last week trading as low as 0.8155 – 0.8249. That is not a huge range for a trading week. Ultimately the pair closed between its 100-hour (blue) and 200-hour (green) moving averages near the middle of that range — a technical pivot zone that now serves as a key