Headlines: Traders pare back their dovish bets on the Fed after the positive NFP report Trump says countries have to start paying tariffs on 1 August More on Trump saying he’ll begin sending tariff letters on Friday China issues final ruling on EU brandy probe, to impose duties up to 34.9% OPEC+ meeting has been

Reuters reports that the OPEC+ meeting has been moved to Saturday 5th of July due to Ashura holiday. The group has been steadily adding back oil output since April and it’s expected to deliver another 411,000 output hike for August. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ Futures Technical Analysis – July 4, 2025 Published by InvestingLive.com, the upcoming evolution of ForexLive What is the current trend in NASDAQ futures? As the above Nasdaq Futures Technical Analysis video of today shows, as of July 4, 2025, NASDAQ futures are showing signs of a short-term pullback after a strong upward breakout. On

US stock market sentiment might feel frothy because it’s been a one-way TACO trade since Trump backed down on Liberation Day tariffs but most sentiment surveys weren’t overly frothy. That could be changing. The AAII survey — which is a solid one — rose in the latest week to 45% bullish from 35.1%. That’s a

India’s markets regulator bars US trading firm Jane Street from accessing the country’s securities market more to come Getting the details on this. It’ll be interesting hearing the reasoning. Algo-driven firms like this tend to not have too many fans … but they do provide liquidity and what have you to markets (yeah, most of

Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil forecast to US$72/bbl for 2025 projects $70 for 2026 forecast US oil demand to grow 130 kb/d this year, 100 kb/d ahead of their previous estimates say geopolitical tensions have eased as the U.S​.-​mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold add that the risk premium has

House leaders have designated the week of July 14 as “Crypto Week”, when three major cryptocurrency-related bills will be brought to a vote: the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate’s GENIUS Act. Republican lawmakers say the legislation will create a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, safeguard financial privacy, and bolster

USD/JPY is dribbling a little lower after the stunning beat for this data, both y/y and m/m: Japan data – May household spending +4.7% y/y (expected +1.2%, prior -0.1%) The yen move is tiny, of course, in comparison with the non farm payroll USD/JPY jump: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking in Berlin, addressed EU concerns over rare earth export controls: “Rare earths have not been, are not, and will not be a problem between China and Europe, or between China and Germany.” “If legal applications are submitted, Europe’s and Germany’s normal needs can be met.” China imposed new export

The US is on holiday on July 4 for the Independence Day holiday. Stock markets – most notably the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be closed Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed. Most FX desks will be closed, skeleton staff at

Japan data – May household spending comes in at a huge beat, +4.7% y/y, the fastest pace since August 2022 expected +1.2%, prior -0.1% +4.6% m/m, fastest since March 2021 expected +0.4%, prior -1.8% These are big beats, both m/m and y/y and will reignite speculation of nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hikes. Markets had

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reuters latest poll of expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia: 31 of 37 economists expect the Bank to cut its cash rate by 25bp next week, on July 8 six said no change and expected to cut cash rate to 3.10% by end-2025 is the median forecast (v/s 3.35% in May poll) A 25bp

Trump says administration working with Department of Homeland Security to help farmers on immigration Trump says administration will also work with the hotel industry Trump says he is willing to let migrants stay in country who are vouched for by the farmers they work for Trump is speaking in Iowa, one of the states very

Australia S&P Global June final services PMI at 51.8, a big jump from May and ahead of the flash reading: preliminary was 51.3, prior was 50.6 in May Composite 51.6, ditto: preliminary was 51.2, prior was 50.5 in May In summary from the report: Australia’s services sector gained momentum in June, with stronger demand driving

The U.S. has given Enterprise Products Partners the green light to restart ethane exports to China, the company announced on Wednesday, reversing a licensing restriction introduced only weeks earlier as trade tensions shifted from tariffs to supply chain controls. In late May and early June, the U.S. imposed new curbs on ethane and various other

New ETF offers U.S. investors exposure to Solana A new investment vehicle giving traditional investors access to Solana—a major cryptocurrency—began trading Wednesday on the Cboe BZX Exchange: REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF is the first US ETF to directly invest in Solana, the world’s sixth-largest crypto by market cap. The launch marks a step forward

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump’s latest yelling is: Powell should resign immediately Something to take note of is that Trump and some other members of the administration would have have gotten a preview of the US non farm payroll report around 4pm US Eastern time on Wednesday. This latest from Trump may be indicative of a poor report. Perhaps.

Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said the company will consider exporting its electric vehicles starting in 2027, reaffirming a timeline previously suggested. Lei noted that strong demand at home—particularly for its SU7 sedan and newly launched YU7 SUV—requires Xiaomi to prioritise the Chinese market in the near term. The SU7 has outperformed Tesla’s Model 3 in

A plane went down Wednesday afternoon in Monroe Township in Gloucester County near the Cross Keys Airport, officials said. No further details as yet Here we go, more: Numerous people injured says ABC media skydiving plane with 15 people onboard goes off runway after landing plane was dropping rapidly at a rate of 3,008 feet

As Trump and his advisers consider candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one key uncertainty looms: Powell may not leave the central bank next year. While Powell’s term as chair ends in May, he has yet to indicate whether he will fully step down or remain on the Fed’s board, where his term

Westpac have popped up a piece summarising three key themes that have emerged from the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra that concluded on Wedneday: Asia and the West have different responses to the trade shock The decline of US dollar dominance will be slow Reliance on the neutral rate offers diminishing returns On

Japan Jibun bank PMIs for June 2025, final. Services 51.7, a third consecutive month of growth preliminary 51.5, prior 51.0 More: business confidence improving to a four-month high new order growth accelerated slightly from May increase in new export business, generally attributed to tourist activities, decelerated to the slowest since December employment grew at the

Bessent was speaking in an interview with Fox: says ‘a little bewildering’ that tariffs wouldn’t push Fed towards a cut Asked if he thinks Powell will lower rates by fall, Bessent: I think they could do it sooner than then but certainly by September It’s a bit tough to figure out what Bessent is doing

Greg had the summary of the main points made by the heads of the Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan and Bank of Korea If you need an update of where these folks see their economies and policy this is a great summary: Comments from Central Bank Heads from the

OPEC+ meets on July 6, the cartel is expected to hike August output by 411,000 bpd. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says the decision will be made on the day: “We’ll review it during the meeting, as is traditional“ The group has been steadily adding back oil output since April: monthly increases of 411,000

Trump: Israel agrees to 60-day Gaza ceasefire proposal – via a post on his social media app. says Qataris, Egyptians will deliver final deal “Hope Hamas takes this deal” Gaza ceasefire deal “will not get better, only worse” Productive meetings with Israeli representatives confirmed Anything that relieves the suffering of the people in Gaza would

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that policymakers are likely to stay on hold for now, waiting for clearer signs on how Trump’s tariffs are affecting inflation. However, if the labour market starts to weaken, the Fed may consider lowering interest rates. Bank of America say: “Occam’s razor suggests that inflation is already

Median UK pay awards rose to 3.4% in the three months to May, up from 3.2%, driven partly by April’s minimum wage hike. Info via Reuters, citing a survey by Incomes Data Research: Private-sector pay deals hit 3.5%, with 19% of employers offering raises above 6%, up from 12% in April. Public-sector pay averaged 3.6%,

Iran prepped to mine Strait of Hormuz last month after Israeli strikes, but the mines were never deployed, according to U.S. officials. Reuters carry the story. In brief: A blockade would have disrupted global trade, with the strait carrying around 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments. U.S. hasn’t ruled out the possibility that

Justin had the update on Trump looking at susbidies to Tesla: Trump says maybe DOGE should take a “good, hard look” at Elon and the subsidies his companies are receiving Note also that the feud is getting very personal. Trump said he would look at having Elon Musk deported to his native South Africa: “We’ll

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The US dollar is under pressure as foreign investors show diminishing demand for dollar-denominated assets, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Using the bank’s ETF flow data: foreigners “are no longer buying enough dollar assets to finance America’s huge current account deficit.” DB highlights recent data showing the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) narrowed slightly

This is not just a yean story, the dollar has dipped almost across the baord also. Yen supported by the Bank of Japan Tankan : BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10) US dollar, meanwhile, ore of the same for it, it lost ground at its fastest first help pace in

BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Bank of Japan Tankan Survey – June 2025 Highlights Business Conditions (Actual vs Reuters Poll): Large Manufacturers (June): +13 (forecast: +10). +13 is the highest since December last year. Large Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +12 (forecast: +9) Large Non-Manufacturers (June): +34 (forecast: +34) +34 is the lowest since December last year Large

The Reuters Tankan Index provides a monthly snapshot assessing Japanese business sentiment ahead of the Bank of Japan’s quarterly report. For Q2 2025, the data shows: April 2025: Japanese manufacturers’ sentiment rebounded to +9 in April from -1 in March, marking the highest level since August 2024. This improvement was attributed to a temporary boost

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UK BRC Shop Price Index for June 2025 UK shop price inflation rose in June for the first time in nearly a year driven by a sharp 3.7% annual jump in food prices, the fastest pace since March 2024 British Retail Consortium attributed the rise to higher wholesale costs and increased labour expenses, especially for

Tesla has raised the price on Model 3 long range edition to 285,000 yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan final manufacturing PMI for June 2025 50.1 flash 50.4, prior 49.4 Japan’s manufacturing sector grew in June for the first time in 13 months: New orders fell for the 25th straight month, and export orders remained in a prolonged slump, with companies citing U.S. tariff uncertainty, especially in semiconductors and autos, as a key

Australian final June 2025 manufacturing PMI 50.6, down from the flash reading and down from May. Prelim is here: Australia preliminary June 2025 manufacturing PMI 51.0 (prior 51.0) Commentary from the report: “Australia’s Manufacturing PMI data showed that growth of the goods-producing sector moderated for a third consecutive month in June. While flash data initially

Going into the QSBO (data here) report BNZ were expected a cut at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on July 9, but it was not a strongly held biew: It is looking increasingly likely the RBNZ will stand pat when it delivers its July 9 Monetary Policy Review. Our formal view is for

BOJ official comments in the wake of the resilient Q2 Tankan (BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10)) Some automakers mentioned impact of U.S. trade policy, though others cited improvement in profits due to pass-through of costs No clear voices from firms citing impact of U.S. trade policy on capex plans

Bloomberg is gated, but in breif: NSW Treasury Corporation’s (TCorp) chief economist Brian Redican has called on the Reserve Bank of Australia to scrap its focus on hitting the 2.5% midpoint of its inflation target range the benchmark imposes unrealistic expectations on monetary policy creates unnecessary confusion in financial markets: inflation outcomes are more likely

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has hinted at the firm’s 11th straight week of Bitcoin purchases, continuing a buying streak that began on April 14. “In 21 years, you’ll wish you’d bought more,” Saylor posted on X to his 4.4 million followers Strategy’s latest purchase was on June 23, when it added 245 BTC for

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump has accused Japan of engaging in unfair trade practices in the automobile sector, calling for Tokyo to boost imports of U.S. energy and goods to help narrow the trade deficit. In a Fox News interview aired Sunday, Trump criticised the imbalance, noting that while the U.S. imports millions of Japanese vehicles, Japan takes few

Japan Industrial Production for May 2025, preliminary, +0.5% m/m for a huge miss expected +3.4%, prior -1.1% and -1.8% y/y prior +0.5% Industrial Production forecast 1 month ahead +0.3% m/m prior -3.4% 2 months ahead seen at -0.7% Data via Ministry of Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry US tariffs threat but hasn’t even hit

The Bank of Japan is placing increasing emphasis on “underlying inflation” to justify its cautious approach to further rate hikes, even as headline inflation sits well above target — a move that’s drawing criticism for clouding its policy message. core and headline consumer inflation in Japan remain above 2% BOJ points to a range of

Business confidence in the UK has climbed to its highest level in nine years: Lloyds Bank’s Business Barometer 51% in June, strongest since November 2015 prior 50 economic optimism up to a 10-month high hiring intentions surged, 60% of businesses now expect to increase staffing levels over the next year Lloyds economist: the figures indicate

US equity index futures are higher in Sunday evening, US time, Globex trade. Adding to record highs. EUR/USD is making a fresh high for the session here after opening higher and the filling the gap it left. Gold dipped early but is bouncing. The USD is generally softer across the board. Trump spoke on Sunday:

The theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking is Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses 30 June-2 July 2025 In Sintra, Portugal European Central Bank President Lagarde kicks off the speeches at 1730 GMT today, Monday, June 30, 2025. On Tuesday we’ll hear from a few more of the

New Zealand ANZ Business Survey for June 2025. Business Confidence prior 36.6 Activity Outlook prior 34.8 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mon: Japanese Industrial Output (May), Chinese Official PMIs (Jun), German Retail Sales (May), German/Italian Prelim CPI (Jun) Tue: Japanese Tankan (Q2), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Jun), German Unemployment (Jun), EZ HICP Flash (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US Challenger Layoffs (Jun),

Canada is set to move forward with a digital services tax, with the first payments due on Monday on revenues that stretch all the way back to 2022. That’s a material number and it comes after all the tech giants flanked Trump at his inauguration. I wonder if this isn’t all sorted out on the

These are complex talks Will proceed in the best interests of the country Tough to get a read on what he’s saying here but he’s not trying to inflame talks further. USD/CAD has recouped a big part of the move. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

So much for that. CAD down sharply. Trump’s message: We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our

It’s a lively day in US equity markets as strong buyers waded in early. It looked like the market would cruise to a record high close until Trump tweeted that he was ending trade talks with Canada. That led to a wave of tariff worries that erased more than 40 points in the S&P 500

Trump — evidently — is so offended that Iran’s supreme leader didn’t say ‘thank you’ to Trump and instead claimed he won the war that he’s “immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more”. Here is Trump’s post: Why would the so-called “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran,

Bessent indicates that the US dollar drop this year is normal variance. The US still has a strong dollar policy Currencies move up and down More fiscal spending in Europe tells you that the euro should appreciate I don’t think anyone is necessarily talking about a shadow Fed One spot on the Fed will open

The S&P 500 is up 45 points to a fresh record at 6185. It’s bee a great week for stock markets following the Iran-Israel war and the S&P 500 is up 3.6% WTD. The market isn’t rattled by Trump trade comments as it’s concluded that tariffs won’t be overly inflationary and that other countries aren’t

Trump is back to being tariff man. After a week of working on peace in the Middle East, Trump is pivoting again and away we go. The S&P 500 was on its way to a record close and a close above the prior record high of 6147 but it’s now given up around 40 poitns

Baker Hughes data: Oil rigs -6 to 432 Nat gas rigs -2 to 109 WTI crude oil is trading down 11 cents to $67.65. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump cancels trade talks with Canada Carney says he has not spoken with Trump today US May PCE core +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected Canada GDP for April -0.1% vs +0.0% expected US June final UMich consumer sentiment 60.7 vs 60.5 expected Trump: I’ve ended sanctions relief for Iran because the Ayatollah didn’t say thank-you

Discover what it takes to think in probabilities so that you can determine your edge in the markets The post How To Think in Probabilities appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Japanese Retail Sales for May 2025 + 2.2% y/y expected + 2.7%, prior +3.5% for the m/m, comes in at -0.2% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.7% in April more to come Earlier: Tokyo June 2025 headline CPI +3.1% y/y (3.3% expected) Japan May unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.5%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will be speaking Friday at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Annual General Meeting 1200 US Eastern time/1600 GMT Note, the BIS’ Annual Economic Report 2025 will be released on 29 June: will look at trade tensions, global economic challenges, the rise of non-banks and the future monetary system

Goldman Sachs says its scenario analysis suggests Brent at $90/bbl by year-end in case of an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz Says option markets see a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in 3 months and a 28% probability to exceed $70 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

French President Macron: in favour of a speedy and equitable EU-US trade agreement if the US 10% tariff stays, Europe will respond by imposing an equivalent levy on US firms This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The inflation data is here: Tokyo June 2025 headline CPI +3.1% y/y (3.3% expected) Jobs data: Jobless Rate 2.5%, unchanged from April expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.24 expected 1.26, prior 1.26 Its inflation data that is a focus in Japan, the unemployment rate is very low. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Tokyo CPI % y/y expected 3.4%, prior +3.4% CPI excluding fresh food 3.1% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.6% CPY excluding fresh food & energy +3.1% y/y, the highest since January 2024 expected 3.3%, prior 3.3% While core consumer inflation in Tokyo slowed in June, its still way above the Bank of Japan 2% target. Most

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari is participating in a town hall and Q&A at Montana Chamber of Commerce: inflation is above 2%, have to get it back to 2% we want to keep strong labour market we need to go slow until we know what’s happening with tariff-related inflation some of the

Positng this ICYMI: J.P. Morgan has raised its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 1,150 to 1,250, citing attractive valuations, a weaker U.S. dollar, and reduced uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. The firm maintains an ‘overweight’ stance on emerging markets. It noted that while trade tensions have dominated sentiment so far in

South Korea’s financial regulator: South Korea government holds emergency meeting on household debt South Korea govt strengthens measures to control household debt The back story on this is that South Korea has one of the highest household debt-to-income ratios among OECD countries. Households owe significantly more than their annual disposable income. mortgage loans are a

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term runs for another 11 months. The Journal (gated) says Trump is considering naming his successor soon. In brief: has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October, according to people familiar with the matter One of these people said the president’s ire toward

EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD all higher against the US dollar. The news that triggered the renewed bout of dollar selling is this: Wall Street Journal: Trump considers naming next Fed chair early – bid to undermine Powell The Journal’s take, which seems reasonable, is that Trump’s intention to name Powell’s replacement early

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish stance on Chinese equities, forecasting a more than 10% rally in the CSI 300 Index to 4,600 by year-end. Despite ongoing investor caution and a tepid first half, the bank expects a stronger performance in the second half of 2025, supported by policy easing, improving corporate earnings, and stabilising

Info here: Wall Street Journal: Trump considers naming next Fed chair early – bid to undermine Powell Wall Street Journal reports that Trump may accelerate naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Powell either this summer, September or October this might allow the chair-in-waiting to influence investor expectations ahead of the end of Powell’s term

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority acts as Hong Kong’s central bank. The HKMA is buying HKD to support the local currency. Its hit the upper extreme of its trading band (ie strong USD/weak HKD) – more on this below. I’ve posted on this before, ICYMI: Since 1983, the HKD has been pegged to the U.S.

Deutsche Bank has revised its rate call for the Reserve Bank of Australia, now forecasting a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming 8 July meeting. The bank had previously expected the first move in August but now sees cuts in both July and August, followed by a third 25bp reduction in November. The shift

Snippet from JPM on the US dollar: expects the index, DXY, to fall by 5.7% in the next 12 months citing US economic growth looking set to moderate, data showing signs of softening projects US growth to slow by more than other developed-market economies also to grow more slowly than most emerging-market economies sees growth-supportive

Nomura expects U.S. Treasuries to benefit from growing concerns over a potential economic slowdown, with yields likely to decline further if the labour market begins to soften meaningfully. In a note to clients, the bank said a resilient labour market would likely lead to only modest yield declines, but any signs of weakness could accelerate

0430 US Eastern time / 0830 GMT Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks at City UK conference on UK competitiveness 0645 US Eastern time/ 1045 GMT Andrea Rosen, Bank of England’s Head of Market Intelligence and Analysis at the CCBS “Transforming monetary policy” conference “From trading floors to policy calls: the value and evolution of our

The CNN report that pre-empted the other reports on “Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say” (I did a summary of this and other reports here earlier ICYMI: Classified report: Iran’s nuclear capabilities largely intact despite airstrikes) includes this instructive paragraph towards the end: The Israeli

Japan Services Producer Price Index (May 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan: more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Jeff Schmid is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Both jobs and inflation are near the Fed’s goals Central bank has time to study tariff effects on inflation before any rate decision Resilience of the economy means the Fed has time to wait and see what happens before

The summary of the Bank of Japan’s June policy meeting (headlines here from earlier) shows some members urged keeping rates steady due to uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy. Others argued that inflation was stronger than expected, with one suggesting the BOJ may need to raise rates “decisively” despite economic risks.

BOJ summary of opinions at June meeting: One member said: While much of the hard data for April and May has been relatively solid, it is likely that the effects of tariff policies are yet to materialize One member said while the impact of U.S. tariff policy will certainly exert downward pressure on firms’ sentiment,

Info comes via a Reuters report citing surveys by data firm Brightmine and recruitment platform Indeed Private sector pay deals mostly held at 3% in the three months to May, below 3.4% inflation. Nearly 15% of firms offered lower raises of 2.5%, reflecting employer caution. Job vacancies fell 5% from late March to mid-June and

Recapping Japan’s corporate service inflation data earlier, that rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, just below April’s revised 3.4%, according to BOJ data. The Bank of Japan is closely watching service-sector prices for signs that wage-driven inflation may become sustained. The services producer price index reflects what businesses charge each other for services and is a

Japan Services Producer Price Index (May 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan:. AKA Corporate Services Price Index +3.3% y/y (expected +3.1%, prior +3.1%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs’ Richard Chambers says the U.S. dollar may face further pressure as foreign investors increase currency hedging on U.S. assets. Rising hedge ratios and more FX-hedged Treasury purchases are expected amid market volatility. Chambers also sees European investors potentially reducing U.S. bond purchases in favour of local assets as fiscal spending rises, which could

Israel agreed to ceasefire so long as Iran does not launch further attacks; Iran has signalled to the US no further attacks will take place – White House official. Info via Reuters. Also: Trump called the ceasefire between Iran and Israel that he announced marked “a wonderful day for the world, in my opinion.” -NBC

This ahead of the ceasefire due at 0400 GMT (midnight US Eastern time), some media reports: Iran deflecting most intense strikes since June 13 Iran’s Nour News (linked to the Supreme National Security Council): “The scale of the explosions that occurred tonight in Tehran and Karaj is the largest in 12 days.” Heavy bombardments in

Amazon will invest £40 billion ($54 billion) in the UK over the next three years, marking a significant expansion in its third-largest market after the US and Germany. The investment, welcomed by the UK government as a boost to economic confidence, is set to create thousands of jobs. Plans include two major new fulfillment centres

The announcement from Trump of a ceasefire was very soon followed by officials in Iran denying it, and soon after by other officials confirming it. The denials are back: Iranian Fars News reports that an informed source has denied Trump’s ceasefire claim. Speaking to Fars News, the source stated that the ceasefire proposal announced by

Japanese media, Yomiuri, reporting on the dates – conveyed via Reuters Akazawa is arranging his seventh visit to the United States for as early as June 26 the first ministerial-level tariff negotiation since the Japan-U.S. summit held in Canada on June 16 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil has lost further ground with the news of the ceasefire: Trump announces Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” CNN reports that Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal News of Iranian confirmation of ceasefire agreement filtering in now – all good More ceasefire confirmation – Senior Iranian official confirms

Social media sources: Unconfirmed reports of an assassination attempt on a senior Iranian official Reports indicate a nuclear scientist has been assassinated in central Tehran Unconfirmed reports of multiple explosions at/near Camp Taji north of Baghdad in Iraq Wave of new Israeli airstrikes targeting Tehran’s 6th and 7th districts. This article was written by Eamonn

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Via Reuters: President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on Monday in a call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and with Trump’s team in contact with Iranian officials, a senior White House official said. The official, providing details of the ceasefire on condition of anonymity, said Israel agreed to the

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is an interesting read from Axios on how Trump suckered a lot of people. I posted on Friday not to get sucked in: “the phrasing doesn’t rule out an immediate move“ But Axios canvasses all those he did fool. Good read this. “It was a headfake”: Inside Trump’s secret orders to strike Iran The

Australia S&P Global June flash services PMI at 51.3 (vs 50.6 in May) Australia S&P Global June flash manufacturing PMI at 51.0 (vs 51.0 in May) Composite 51.2 (prior 50.5) Solid jump for the Services and Composite, steady for Manufacturing. A good results. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun bank PMI manufacturing June 2025 preliminary 50.4 (prior 49.4) services: 51.5 (prior 51.0) composite: 51.4 (prior 50.2) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters carry a few comments from analysts in response to the weekend developments re Trump’s strike on Iran. JP Morgan take a bit of a big pic view: cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over

I posted last week on 4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bbl Many of these warned of what could play out in the case of escalation. Over the weekend we did incrementally escalate: BREAKING: U.S. Successfully Struck Iran Nuclear Sites What’s Next after Iran Strikes? Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 16

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Goldman Sachs: Says while they still assume no significant disruptions to oil & natural gas supply, downside risks to energy supply & upside risk to its energy price forecasts have risen Says the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance that Iran will disrupt the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 Says if only Iran

This is worth checking out, reasoning why Iran won’t be able to close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not to say they won’t try, but it’ll be flash in the pan. Here is the link to the thread, if you’d like to read it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Korea says it’ll take market stabilising measures if volatility heightens excessively The fin min, meanwhile, says will be closely monitoring energy supply conditions fin min again – to take necessary measures if volatility is excessive in financial markets This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

RBC analysts warn against complacency in assessing risks to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that Iran retains significant retaliatory capabilities. “Iran has the ability to meaningfully retaliate by hitting individual tankers and ports,” they said, pushing back on the notion that disruptions hinge solely on a dramatic escalation. The situation, they argue,

MON: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jun). TUE: NBH Announcement, German Ifo (Jun), Canadian CPI (May), US Richmond Fed (Jun). WED: BoJ Summary of Opinions, CNB Announcement, PBoC MLF, Australian CPI (May). THU: Banxico Announcement, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jul), US Durable Goods (May), US GDP Final (Q1), US PCE Final (Q1). FRI: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jun),

Chart of the Day – Light Crude Oil Futures Analysis Crude Oil Price Chart, Daily timeframe | April–June 2025 Since mid-April 2024, light crude oil futures have respected a clear red resistance line—with key touchpoints in April 2024, January 2025, and most recently in mid-June 2025. The most recent test briefly pierced above resistance, a

Israeli strikes continue: Israel’s Air Force conducted another wave of attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear site at Isfahan, radar installations, and air defense batteries. Senior Iranian commanders killed: Israel confirmed the targeted killing of multiple Iranian commanders, including Bahnam Shahriari, head of weapon transfers to Hezbollah, and Amin Pour-Joudaki, commander of Iran’s drone force. Saeed Izadi,

U.S. B-2 Bombers Observed in Transit, Likely Toward Guam – No Official Deployment Announced On June 21, 2025, six U.S. Air Force B-2 stealth bombers were observed departing Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, accompanied by aerial refueling tankers. Based on flight-tracking data and analysis by defense aviation watchers, the aircraft are likely heading to

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that the United States has completed what he called a “very successful attack” on three nuclear sites in Iran — Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. According to Trump’s post, a full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary target, Fordow, and all aircraft involved have exited Iranian

We’ve been speaking to Iran Russia and Ukraine are making progress Looks like we will make trade deals with India and Pakistan Iran doesn’t want to speak with Europe Thinks Iran was weeks or months away from having a nuclear weapon Says he might support ceasefire Israel is doing well, Iran is doing less well

When I survey markets and themes right now it’s painfully difficult to find any clarity. Trump is extremely difficult to predict and right now we’re waiting on two big decisions: 1) Whether to join the war with Iran 2) How to conduct the trade war Both could materially worsen or get better at any point.

The broader US indices are closing lower on the day. The Dow 30 did close marginally higher. Dow industrial average rose 35.16 points or 0.08% at 42206.82. S&P index fell -13.033 points or -0.22% at 5967.84 NASDAQ index fell -98.86 points or -0.51% at 19447.41 For the trading week indices were little changed: Dow industrial

There seem to be two tracks around Iran. The US military is preparing to attack more intensely Diplomats are laying the groundwork for a deal Ultimately Trump will be the one to decide which way it will go but I think the hesitation is because the US doesn’t know how it might get out of

The USDCHF spent the week grinding higher, carving out a Monday-to-Thursday range of 0.8055 → 0.8213. Buyers ran into determined sellers just a few pips beneath the 38.2 % retracement of the April–May decline, halting momentum and forcing a modest pullback to the 0.8150 to 0.8160 area. A second technical fulcrum sits just below current

So far the economy is in a good place and so is policy Concerns about tariff impact on inflation aren’t as large as they were when they were first announced Many possibilities on how much of tariffs pass through to customers Fundamentals of economy are moving to where an interest rate cut may be necessary

The USDJPY just notched fresh intraday—and multi-week—highs, pushing firmly into the yellow swing zone that capped rallies in early May (145.92-146.25). Price is now only a handful of pips from the 61.8 % retracement of the May slide at 146.148, a level that often acts as a “last line” for corrective moves. Importantly, every pullback

Japan has cancelled a trade meeting with the US, according to the FT. The move came after the US asked Japan to boost defense spending to 3.5% of GDP. This report might be responsible for some of the selling in stocks in the past few minutes. At some point the market will shift its focus

The US dollar has been steadily bid this week on a safe-haven bid due to Middle East war fears but it’s now giving back those gains. The euro is now nearly flat on the week. It’s also traced out something of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart that targets a retest of the recent

Trump: It’s hard to make a request for Israel to stop airstrikes, we’ve talked to Iran Philadelphia Fed Business index for June -4.0 vs -1.0 expected Japan cancels meeting with US after call for more defense spending Fed’s Waller: I’m all in favor of saying ‘maybe we should think about cutting’ in July Feds Barkin

Bank of Japan April 30 – May 1 meeting minutes, full text Headlines via Reuters: Many members said must carefully scrutinise each nation’s trade policy and its development given heightening downside risks to economy, prices A few members said BOJ must maintain current very low real interest rates to underpin economy One member said BOJ

The Bank of England on Thursday, kept rates on hold in a 6-3 split, with three members voting for a 25 basis point cut, a more dovish outcome than markets had expected (a 7-2 vote). BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected BOE’s Lombardelli: Services inflation is proving quite sticky TD Securities strategists

The minutes of the Bank of Japan May meeting are due at 2350 GMT (1950 US Eastern time). We had a sneak preview from the bank’s Summary: Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on April 30 and May 1, 2025 Later, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at

US thinks Iran likely to make a nuclear bomb if Fordow is attacked, Khamenei assasinated. New York Times with the report. Sounds weird. Iran is making an all out effort to make a nuclear bomb without either of those things happening anyway. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The kiwi $ trades with thin liquidity at the best of times. Today will be even thinner. New Zealand markets are closed for a Friday holiday – long weekend in NZ! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK GfK Consumer Confidence in June 2025 comes in at -18 expected -20, prior -20 – 18 is highest level of 2025 GFK analysis: “With petrol prices set to rise in the coming weeks following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and with ongoing uncertainty as to the full impact of tariffs,

Japan inflation readings for May 2025: Headline rate is 3.5% y/y expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% CPI excluding Fresh Food 3.7% y/y, the fastest rise in 2+ years (again) … highest since January 2023 … said to be driven by oil and services costs, but if you take out energy (see below) its still rising fast

Swiss National Bank news from Thursday ICYMI: SNB brings back zero rates in June monetary policy decision, as expected SNB chairman Schlegel: We are now on the verge of negative interest rate territory SNB chairman Schlegel: We don’t take decision on negative interest rates lightly The cut comes as Swiss inflation turned int deflation in

MSCI said Friday that South Korea’s short-selling accessibility has improved, with no major issues remaining — a positive sign ahead of next week’s market classification review. South Korea is currently classified as an emerging market by MSCI, despite meeting many developed-market criteria. Investors are hoping the country will be added to MSCI’s watch list for

The Wall Street Journal reported earlir: WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plans Another US media outlet, ABC, is reporting the same information: The report quotes Trump”: He’s received a range of options, including using U.S. military assets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump didn’t rule out the

New Zealand q1 2025 GDP +0.8% q/q, a beat expected +0.7%, prior +0.5% -0.7% y/y, also a beat but obviously still a y/y contraction expected –0.8%, prior revised from –1.1% down to -1.3% NZD/USD with a bit of a wiggle on the release but little net change so far: This article was written by Eamonn

Israeli media reports the latest Iranian attack was intercepted by US air defense systems Israel’s Channel 12 reporting, conveyed via Al Jazeera.Earlier: Earlier: Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend NYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump’s offer to meet WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA, the trade group that represents the bond market.) is recommending the US Bond market closed that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps the odd skeleton crew. —

ABC (US media) reports: Trump is getting comfortable with the idea of taking out Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, a source familiar with the intelligence told ABC News. It would not be just one strike on the facility, it would be several, the source said. There is now a movement to get ready for this, the

Via Axios (US politics website): Trump wants to make sure such an attack on Iran is really needed Wants to be sure it wouldn’t drag the US into a prolonged war in the Middle East Wants to be sure that the attack would achieve the objective of destroying Iran’s nuclear program More: Consideration is begin

While the meeting was underway there were a flurry of news items crossing: Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend NYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump’s offer to meet WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plans We await any

A new Reuters corporate survey shows that 71% of Japanese companies say the impact of U.S. tariffs is within expectations, with 84% keeping their investment plans unchanged despite a looming 24% tariff threat on some goods and an existing 25% tariff on autos. Many firms are taking a long-term view, noting the Trump administration’s limited

Goldman Sachs says a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel has emerged in Brent crude prices, following the recent climb to $76–77/bbl. In a note released Wednesday, the bank said the premium reflects heightened Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions. Goldman maintains its base case forecast for Brent to decline to around

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

New Zealand Q1 current account balance -2.324bn ( expected -2.2bn, prior -7.037bn) Current Account/GDP -5.7% expected -5.8%, prior -6.2% Current Account Annual -24.662bn expected -24.8bn, prior -26.401bn Traders are eyeing global developments to move the Kiwi $ more than local data for now. NZD/USD isa few tics lower after the data. — More on the

Axios, a US politics site, reports that Netanyahu and Trump held a phone call. – In other related news Iran has launched its most recent barrage of missiles against Israel. Said to be 20 missiles launched. – Earlier: Israeli media says the US could join the war against Iran tonight CNN reporting the same. As

Japanese manufacturers turned more cautious in June, with sentiment dipping amid concerns over U.S. tariffs and sluggish Chinese demand, the latest Reuters Tankan survey shows. The manufacturers’ index fell to +6 in June from +8 in May, with expectations it will drop further to +2 in the next three months. Sentiment among non-manufacturers held steady

The CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) Crude Oil Volatility Index is referred to as OVX. It shows implied volatility of options on United States Oil Fund (USO). tracks 30-day expected volatility in crude oil prices, derived from the pricing of USO options — similar to how the VIX measures expected equity volatility from S&P 500

Japanese trade data, also machine orders data. Trade Balance for May 2025 -637.6bn yen expected -896.5bn, prior –115.6bn Trade Balance Adjusted -305.5bn yen expected –359.0bn, prior -408.9bn Exports -1.7% y/y, the first negative in eight months expected –3.7%, prior +2.0% Imports -7.7% y/y expected –5.9%, prior –2.2% Exports to Asia +0.4% year/year to China -8.8%

The Taco stories pretty much write themselves now. Wall Street Journal: Trump will sign an executive order sparing TikTok from enforcement of a law banning or forcing the sale of the app. extension will last 90 days the third extension since Trump took office In other news, Trump’s homeland security secretary Kristi Noem was taken

Rick Rieder is BlackRock CIO of Global Fixed Income. Snippet from a piece in Market Watch on his expectations for the Fed. Trump tariffs so far haven’t flowed into U.S. inflation data in a big way Federal Reserve will maintain its wait-and-see approach on interest rates Over the next two months, the Fed may get

As background to this, a couple of months ago news hit that US regulators are planning to ease a capital rule, specifically the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), that limits how much banks can hold in Treasury securities. In brief: This move aims to boost liquidity in the $29 trillion Treasury market and reduce borrowing costs

New Zealand consumer sentiment ticked up in the June quarter, though it remains deeply pessimistic by historical standards, according to the latest Westpac-McDermott Miller survey. The consumer confidence index rose to 91.2, up from 89.2 in the March quarter. While the small improvement reverses some of the sharp Q1 drop, the index remains well below

S&P 500 eminis, ES, and Nasdaq, NQ have recouped their small losses after Globex reopened for evening trade and are up just a touch. Moves are small only. Same across major FX with a generally lower USD. Small moves higher for : AUD, EUR, NZD, GBP Oil, of course, is a focus. Its backed off

France’s Macron: Trump told G7 leaders there were discussions to obtain a ceasefire between Israel and Iran European partners are ready to take part in serious Iran nuclear negotiations if a ceasefire is reached Americans have made offer to meet with Iranians, now will see what happens Given the objective to get a ceasefire in

Fox reporting that Trump requests NSC be prepared in Situation Room. NSC is the US National Security Council This follows the news that Trump left the G7 abruptly: Trump is leaving the G7 summit EARLY and will return to DC tonight. Trump left early This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

CNN reporter on twitter – Trump is leaving the G7 summit EARLY and will return to DC tonight: “President Trump will return to Washington tonight so he can attend to many important matters,” – White House Press Sec – Well, this could well be significant news given geopolitical strife engulfing us. The G7 meeting is

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports -3.5% y/y in May expected +8.0%, prior +12.4% in April Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, South Korea and Hong Kong increased y/y in May exports to the United States, Thailand and Malaysia decreased Singapore downgraded its GDP forecast for 2025 to 0% to 2% from 1% to 3% in April. This article

Trump tweeted (on his own social media app) telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran”. The White House have deconstructed the tweet: A White House official told CNN on Monday that Trump’s social media post telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran” reflected the urgency of the need for Iran to come to the table as its

The US dollar is rising pretty much across the baord. Its not a rapid move, but a slow boil with an accumulation of news pointing it higher: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran (the White House played this down: Trump’s ‘evacuate Tehran’ tweet is all about getting Iran to negotiate says White House) Trump

Chinese embassy in Israel: Advises Chinese citizens to leave Israel through land border crossings as soon as possible Recommends citizens to leave via land crossing towards Jordan Warns citizens that the security situation has become more severe This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A U.S. official says that that the military’s current stance is strictly defensive no intention of initiating offensive operations against Iran — Its been a very busy session so far for headline ping-pong: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran (the White House played this down: Trump’s ‘evacuate Tehran’ tweet is all about getting Iran

Trump was asked why he is heading back to DC early: “I have to be back…very important…you probably see what I see, I have to be back as soon as I can…I wish I could stay for tomorrow, but they understand, this is big stuff” Trump’s departure, so far: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate

South Korean Finance Ministry: Closely monitoring financial markets South Korea will provide financial and shipping support to exporters Trade war concerns weighing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) For May 2025, 44.0, lowest level of activity since June 2024 prior 48.1 long-run average 53.0 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel (bolding is mine): “the fall in the PSI follows the sharp decline in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) from 53.3 to 47.5. Together, they are

UK Rightmove House Prices for June 2025: -0.3% m/m, compared with a typical 0.4% rise for the usual month of June prior +0.6% +0.8% y/y, smallest annual rise since August 2024 prior +1.2% Rightmove commentary: “It appears that we’re now seeing the decade-high level of homes for sale, and the recent stamp duty increases in

The yen is weakening further. In the first hour of Israeli action again Iran on Friday the yen jumped higher but since then its been almost one-way traffic lower. USD/JPY did track sideways ofr much of the US session Friday but its jumped out of that range now. Higher oil prices are not a bullish

New bank loans in China rose less than expected in May, totaling 620 billion yuan missing forecasts of 850 billion despite recent rate cuts and a temporary U.S.-China trade truce This follows a nine-month low in April Year-on-year loan growth slowed to a record low of 7.1%, down from 7.2% in April. Household loans (mostly

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump talking to reporters as he left for the G7 summit in Canada: Says he hopes there will be a deal between Iran and Israel, but sometimes you have to fight it out Says he does not want to say if he has asked Israel to pause strikes on Iran Says US will continue to

Brent crude up around $3 +4% or so Eminis lower: ES -0.3% NQ -0.4% Brent update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump spoke in the Israel-Iran conflict on Sunday morning US time, ABC News: “We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved” Later in the day he added: Trump says US will continue to support Israel This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey of economists, the latest Consensus Forecasts. Some of the key items from the report, very briefly summarised:: annual average growth in GDP is forecast to contract by 1.1 percent in the year to March 2025 picking up to 1.9 percent in the following year lower interest rates

Japan’s foreign minister says: Japan PM in call with Trump reiterated Japan’s view on the US tariff measures Concluded to accelerate consultations between the ministers in charge to achieve mutual beneficial agreement. Exchange views on response to Israel’s recent attacks against Iran Trump wants to increase tariffs on autos and other imports from Japan. Trump’s

Israel this morning that Iran will pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas: Israel may hit energy facilities in response If Israel attacks Kharg Island, that would be a big thing: Kharg Island is critically important to Iran’s oil industry—both strategically and economically. Here’s why: Location & Infrastructure Situated in the

The price of July crude oil futures are settling up $4.94 or 7.26% at $72.98 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P, Nasdaq and Dow had their worst day since May 21 as geopolitical risk from Israel’s strike on Iran, and Iran’s counterstrike on Isreal gave traders a reason to sell. At the close, the major indices are all down by -1.13% or more. A look at the final numbers shows: Dow Industrial Average fell

Japan PM in call with Trump, reiterated Japan’s use on US tariffs The S&P, NASDAQ and Dow have worst day since May 21 Central bank meetings will dominate the economic calendar next week Israel warns that Iran will pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas Crude oil futures settle at $72.98

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Grossi is saying: Above ground plant where Iran was producing uranium enriched of up to 60% uranium has been destroyed No indication of attack on underground enrichment halls at Natanz, but an attack on the power supplies may have damages centrifuges There is radiological and chemical contamination inside facilites

Sky news is reporting Israeli army: Destroyed a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for converting enriched uranium, and laboratories in Isfahan This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Next week will be a pivotal one for global monetary policy, with key central banks scheduled to announce their latest decisions. The Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) will all hold policy meetings. While the BOJ, Fed, and BOE are widely expected to keep rates

Israel military: identified missile launched from Iran toward the territory of the state of Israel DefenSe systems are operating to intercept the threat. The public is instructed to enter a protective space and remain there until further notice. Hundreds of ballistic missiles launched toward Israel Explosions heard over Tel Aviv Iran’s response to Israel has

Major US stock indices are moving to session lows. The Dow industrial average is now down around 850 points or -1.98% at 42114.88. The S&P index is down -78 points or -1.25% at 5969.73. The NASDAQ index is down -283.1-1.44% at 19379.62 Both the NASDAQ and the S&P index are testing their 100-hour moving averages.

Axios reports that the U.S. told Israel it won’t participate in an Israeli strike on Iran. Earlier from the Wall Street Journal: WSJ: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials say This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

From the man himself: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything

Sector Overview The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant losses today, as key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) show declines of 2.61% and 2.70% respectively. This downturn signals concerns within this previously strong domain. Conversely, energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) have noted a positive shift, up by 1.92%, bolstering confidence in

European stocks ended the day broadly in negative territory, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and weaker global sentiment. All major regional indices posted losses, with Italian and Spanish markets underperforming. Closing levels: German DAX: 23,516.24, ▼255.22 (-1.07%) France’s CAC: 7,684.69, ▼80.43 (-1.04%) UK’s FTSE 100: 8,850.62, ▼34.31 (-0.39%) Spains Ibex: 13,910.59, ▼178.30 (-1.27%) Italy FTSE

Israel’s Channel 12 is reporting that Israeli air force began intercepting drones over the skies of Saudi Arabia. The IDF earlier announced that Iran has launched approximately 100 drones targeting Israel. It’s said that drone could take up to seven hours to cross Iraq, Syria and Jordan before eventually reaching Israel. This article was written

Baker Hughes rig count for the current week: Oil rig -3 at 439 Natural gas -1 at 113 Total recount -4 at 555 Versus a year ago the oil rig count is down from 485 or -46 rigs. That is a decline of 9.5%. Despite the decline,US oil production is at 13.43 million barrels per

OPEC Secretary-General says There are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics Does not see the need for unnecessary measures. Crude oil prices are sharply higher amid growing concerns over supply disruptions. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a strong breakout above the 200-day moving average, which sits at $68.47. This level

France’s Macron: Iran carries heavy responsibility in the destabilization of the region. We cannot live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons. France calls on restraint from parties. Regrets Iran didn’t take overtures from United States. We will be on our partners assigned in the region, including with our armed forces. Urges French citizens

After Israel’s attack, Iran launched approximately 100 drones targeting Israel. But here’s the kicker, the Israeli air force got the permission to intercept those drones over the skies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Moreover, we got the news that Jordan intercepted and shot down several Iranian drones entering its airspace on their way to

Israel launches major airstrikes on Iran, read from the bottom up for the chronology: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium Iran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy price Trump convenes the National Security Council meeting at 11am on Friday Further reports that Israeli air force has begun a second wave

Russia’s Putin spoke to both Iranian President Pezeshkian and Israeli PM Netanyahu: Told Netanyahu that issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program must be solved through diplomacy Told Iran’s Pezeshkian that Russia offers condolences for the dead, denounces Israeli’s actions as being in violation of UN charter This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei is addressing the Iranian people and says: Armed forces will leave Israel hopeless Israel will not remain unscathed Tehran will not go for half measures in its response. Iran is getting ready to launch 100 ballistic missiles toward Israel This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Axios with the report: Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire state of Israel Israeli Defense Minister says following Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future Israeli Defense

Iran will not participate in US/Iranian nuclear negotiations on Sunday. State TV is also announcing that the supreme leader Khamenei will address the Iranian people shortly. US Pres. Trump said the US still had a meeting planned with Iran on Sunday but was unsure whether it would take place. This article was written by Greg

The USDCAD is pushing to fresh lows as safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar fades and rising oil prices provide a tailwind for the Canadian dollar. From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken below the prior low for the year, reaching 1.3574—its lowest level since early October 2024. The drop took the price beneath

Eurostoxx -1.4% Germany DAX -1.4% France CAC 40 -1.3% UK FTSE -0.6% Spain IBEX -1.7% Italy FTSE MIB -1.3% Regional bond yields are also sinking lower amid the safety flows with 10-year yields in Germany briefly touching 2.42% – its lowest since early March. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are also down 1.3% on the day

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to China and Europe later this month for high-level talks focused on trade, investment, and regional security. It will mark his first official visit to China as prime minister. Luxon is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, senior EU officials, and attend the NATO summit

US knew of the attack ahead of time. The battle with Iran is not over. Expect that Iran will attack Israel The surprise is the secret of success Plans to talk with Iranian people directly Meanwhile the Israeli UN envoy says They do not know how long operation in Iran will take place Will continue

Iran International reports that “the sixth round of talks with the United States will not be held following the Israeli attacks” citing senior Iranian lawmaker Aladdin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NY Times is reporting that Israel has resumed the attacks on Iran. The strikes are centered on Fordo, one of the main underground nuclear sites. Israel wants to cease Iranians production of nuclear weapons. I would expect that endeavor to continue until the mission is complete. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Present trump is now telling Reuters that Iran has sustained a devastating hit. It is unclear if Iran still has a nuclear program He is not concerned about a regional war breaking out as a result of Israel’s strike on Iran. I tried to save Iran’s humiliation and death. Israelis ultimate objective is to ensure

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level and one for USD/JPY at the 144.00 level. As things stand, geopolitical tensions are running high and dominating market proceedings. So, the emotional swings on that and risk sentiment will

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There are reports of launches of both Iranian jet fighters and ballistic missiles The reports are only sporadic and unconfirmed. More: Iranian airspace is closed. all flights suspended at Imam Khomeini International Airport in capital Tehran Israeli leaders are said to have been transferred to “safe locations” Earlier: We got a 10 minute or so

TASS is reporting that Israel is prepared for the possibility of a full-fledged war with Iran according to Netanyahu’s office. Well, if that’s were to happen, then we could really see some ugly price action in the markets with oil prices surging to new highs. The playbook in the past attacks was to buy safe

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final CPI data for France and Spain. The final readings are generally ignored because they are old news (unless there are big revisions). We will also get the Eurozone Industrial Production data but it’s not a market moving release. In the

FBS, a leading global broker, has published a new expert analysis exploring how macroeconomic shifts, especially the normalization of the US Treasury yield curve, may create growth opportunities for the crypto market in 2025. After two years of an inverted yield curve — a widely watched recession signal — the spread between the 10-year and

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba says he has agreed to meet with Pres. Trump in Canada. His position has not changed and that he wants the removal of US tariffs. Pres. Trump yesterday said that auto tariffs may start soon This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg News with the report: Bank of Japan officials are seeing slightly stronger inflation than they had anticipated earlier this year, which could pave the way for future rate hike discussions—especially if global trade tensions ease, according to sources familiar with the matter. While the central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady

The GBPUSD started the day by making a new high for the year during the early Asian session, but risk-off flows following an Israeli strike on Iran triggered a sharp reversal. The flight to safety into the US dollar pushed the pair lower, breaking below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which were converged

. Despite stronger-than-expected University of Michigan sentiment data, stocks have slid to new session lows while yields have climbed to new session highs. Notably, U.S. bonds appear to be decoupling from the typical flight-to-safety flows often observed during periods of geopolitical tension. The NASDAQ index is under pressure and edging closer to its rising 100-hour

Well, this was expected. The 100 drones couldn’t have been the retaliation. In 2024 we got the same threats and they launched lots of missiles that didn’t cause much damage. Back then, they used the words “harsh”, “unimaginable” and “tooth-breaking”. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer sentiment last month 52.5 Current conditions last month 58.9 expectations last month 47.9 1 year inflation last month 6.6% 5- year inflation last month 4.2% This month the survery results are more positive: Consumer sentiments 60.5 versus 53.5 estimate Current conditions 63.7 versus 59.4 estimate. Expectations 58.4 versus 49.0 estimate 1-year inflation 5.1% down

Previous close 7.1715 Injects 202.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos At 1.40% 135bn yuan mature today injects net 67.5bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NBC is reporting that Trump says: Iran officials are calling him to discuss the situation. Iran missed opportunity to make a deal, but they might now have another opportunity This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -1.4% Manufacturing sales for April -2.8% versus -2.0% expected -the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since January 2022. Details: Key contributors to the decline were: Petroleum and coal products: -10.9% Motor vehicles: -8.3% Primary metals: -4.4% Excluding petroleum and coal products, manufacturing sales still fell 1.8%. Year-over-year, total

National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company says there has been no damage to oil refineries or storage tanks. — Iran is a global player in the oil market, despite sanctions. There is cocnern on the impact of the strokes on the poil market: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium This article was

Prior quarter 79.8% (revised to 79.7%) The industrial capacity utilization rate is the ratio of an industry’s actual output to its estimated potential output. This is not a market moving release but it shows further improvement, which is what you generally see when the central bank eases monetary policy. Further details: The capacity utilization rate

For what it is worth, Iran is threatening a retaliatory attack, in a letter to the UN Security Council, saying: Iran will respond decisively, proportionally to Israelis unlawful, cowardly acts. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +0.2% Wholesale trade for April -2.3% versus -0.9% expected Sales declined in 6 of 7 subsectors, accounting for 81.6% of total wholesale sales. The motor vehicle and parts subsector saw the largest drop: -6.5% to $14.3 billion. Year-over-year, wholesale sales were up 0.1% in April. In volume terms, wholesale sales (excluding specified categories)

The investment was made through SBI Ven Capital’s joint fund with Sygnum Bank and Azimut Group, which aims to accelerate the rollout of Colossus Digital’s Institutional Hub, a two-sided B2B marketplace, that connects regulated custodians with top-tier validators for staking and governance. Strategic highlights Investment Amount: €1,000,000 (Seed Investment) Lead Investor: SBI Ven Capital, through

Bloomberg reports that Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, expects a trade deal with the US to spare Tokyo from higher auto tariffs. Akazawa said that if they reach a deal with the US it should secure special treatment for Japan, and exclude it from rules that apply to most countries. As a reminder, the

The headline news from Israel and Iran will be continue. The goal is the Iranian enrichment program. Will they give it up? Will they dig in? Other than that, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary data for June will be released at 10 AM with: Sentiment expected to rise to 53.5 from 52.2. Current

The major US indices are set to open lower after Israelis strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and nuclear scientists and military leaders. Iran in a letter to the UN. Counsel said that they will respond decisively and proportionally to the attacks. In premarket trading, the futures are employing lower levels for the major indices. Currently,

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.8% and that’s not all too comforting for the ECB, though at least they are on pause mode through the summer. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Israeli PM Netanyahu: We are at a decisive moment in Israel’s history Our pilots are striking many targets in Iran Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival This operation will continue for as many days as it takes This operation will hurt

Had given Iran 60 day ultimatum for a deal. Today is day 61. Iran has perhaps a second chance. Trump continues to push Iran for a deal and avoid further escalation. As a reminder, Iran said that they won’t attend the nuclear talks planned for Sunday. If they decide to go, that would be a

The major US stock indices are lower but off the premarket levels awed by the futures. The NASDAQ index is down -162.2 or -0.83%. The S&P index is down -46.2 or -0.76%. The Dow is down -575 points or -1.34%. Shares of Adobe are getting hammered after beating expectations and guiding marginallly higher. Go figure.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Some weekend muzak … gets loud from 2:40 and louder from 3:20 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

July 20 2025 date being reported for the Japanese Upper House election. The 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election is scheduled by July 22, so July 20 seems reasonable. It’s a half-election for the upper house, with 124 of the 248 seats up for grabs the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition must retain at least 125 seats

Israel struck Iran with military action on their nuclear facilities and an ballistic military factories along with military leaders. That sent the US dollar higher. US yields are also marginally higher which is a bit unusual . Looking at the US yields: 2-year yield 3.911%, +0.6 basis point 5 year yield 3.962%, +0.4 basis points

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.6% vs +0.6% y/y prelim Prior +0.9% Core annual inflation continues to ease further, falling to 1.1% in May – down from 1.3% in April. That’s largely due to a further drop in services inflation, seen down to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%; revised to +2.4% Looking at the breakdown, there were decreases in output all around for intermediate goods (-0.7%), energy (-1.6%), capital goods (-1.1%), durable consumer goods (-0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (-3.0%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Israel military official says Israel is striking nuclear and military targets Israel is striking dozens of sites across Iran the Iranian nuclear programme is existential threat to Israel Iranian regime is advancing a secret program to build a nuclear weapon Iran has enough fusion material to make 15 nuclear bombs within days The timeline so

Iran has launched an attack on Iran. We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports are sketchy Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran Markets: Oil is rocketing higher, Brent highs circa US$73

Well, there’s still no real progress on a trade deal between the two countries. So, let’s see how this will change that for the coming weeks. But considering how much the two are speaking, I would expect the 9 July deadline to be kicked down the road in any case. This article was written by

Fundamental Overview The USD got under some renewed pressure this week following some soft US data. In fact, we got lower than expected US CPI and PPI data coupled with some weak jobless claims figures. This led to a more dovish repricing in interest rates expectations and a drop in Treasury yields. On the JPY

Headlines: Trump: Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left Iran pulls out of nuclear talks planned for Sunday Iran’s legitimate and powerful response will make Israel regret its foolish act Why it’s hard to see Iran starting a full-fledged war against Israel Israel is prepared for the possibility of a full-fledged war

We are prepared for this to keep going on for days. It depends partly on the Iranian response. We have already achieved a lot. Assessments continue. Israeli air strikes targeted Iranian ballistic missiles that were pointed towards Israel. The Israeli military is still trying to determine how things went. This sounds to me like Israel

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After easing back a little earlier, oil prices are ticking back up in the past hour or so again. WTI crude is now trading to $72.96, up 6% on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome to the Friday data agenda, only a light one. None of this is likely to be too impactful upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may

Trump tariffs ramp up consumer goods prices. Trump is expanding steel tariffs to cover a wider range of imported household appliances starting June 23, according to a notice posted Thursday. The new levies will apply to “steel derivative products,” which now include items like dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, and more. The tariffs—currently set at 50%

Even with the drop in wholesale prices last month marking three straight monthly declines, the index is still at its highest since February. Year-on-year, wholesale prices are still up 0.4% owing much to a price increase for food, beverages, and tobacco products. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal with the report: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials say Israeli official warned that a strike could come as soon as Sunday unless Iran agrees to halt production of fissile material Meanwhile, Trump is carrying on, posting his thoughts on social media: He doesn’t seem

The latest financial stress reading has fallen. In the week ending June 6, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index decreased to -0.81 from -0.54 the previous week. This is via the Federal Reserve, St. Louis branch research: measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series:

JPMorgan in a note issued Thursday (US time) kept its base case oil forecast unchanged, expecting prices to stay in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel through 2025 and around $60 in 2026 it warned however that under extreme geopolitical scenarios—particularly involving Iran—prices could double, potentially hitting $120–130 per barrel This comes amid heightened tensions in

Further reports that Israeli air force has begun a second wave of air strikes against Iran Also reports of unrest in Iran directed not against Israel. Both of these unconfirmed. More: Iranian state media confirms killing of Revolutionary Guards chief Salami in Israeli strike Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir: We are calling up

Trump comments come via a Fox reporter on social media: Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb We are hoping to get back to the negotiating table Negotiating table? Good luck with that. It might be a while before speaking again. Added: U.S. official says we still intend to have talks Sunday between U.S. and Iran

Prior +8.0% New yuan loans ¥620.0 billion vs ¥850.0 billion expected Prior ¥280.0 billion New bank loans in China continue to moderate after the surge in Q1, which was largely due to policymakers ramping up stimulus in anticipation of a trade war with the US. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Iranian state media conveying a statement from Iran’s Armed Forces General staff that Israel and the US wil “pay a very heavy price”. US and Israel will receive “harsh blow” in response “Israel and the United States will recieve a forceful slap” Iran’s Armed Forces would be retaliating in force soon with counter strikes “a

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.2% and that’s down from 2.4% in the month before. Progress. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

White House sends a Statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration

The announcement confirms that the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Gholam Ali Rashid, was also killed by Israel’s attacks. That alongside armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami as reported earlier here. Iran is out saying now that Israel has crossed all red lines and it sees

ING says the oil market is now factoring in a higher risk premium due to rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strike on Iran. uncertainty has increased significantly Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of crude per day and exports around 1.7 million if tensions escalate, it’s not hard to imagine a disruption in Iranian oil

Reuters with the report on the Musk – Trump feud, and therefore if role of Musk’s SpaceX in Golden Dome missile shield is in question. Reuters cite “three people familiar with the project”. In brief: until recently there was a plan for SpaceX, Musk’s rocket and satellite venture, to partner with software maker Palantir and

Iran’s atomic agency chief has reportedly told Iranian media outlets that the Natanz nuclear facility has been completely destroyed. Other reports say “severely damaged”. This was an earlier pic from Iranian media. Earlier: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium Iran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy price Trump convenes the

German DAX futures -1.8% UK FTSE futures -0.4% The overall risk mood is on the defensive with S&P 500 futures also weighed down by 1.4% currently. Safety flows are dominating and that’s helping with gold staying bid going into the session ahead. However, oil is the standout amid fears of retaliation by Iran with WTI

As it happened: We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports are sketchy Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran Market response to Israel attack on Iran: Yen up, Oil rockets higher. Updates:

Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 30%, down from 35%, citing easing trade tensions following a fresh US-China negotiaitons: a framework on tariff rates the lifting of Chinese export restrictions on rare earths renewed access for Chinese students to U.S. universities The bank noted that

Reports of another wave of Israeli strikes on Iran has begun More: It looks likely that that Israel eliminated the top echelon of the Iranian military. An Israeli official: Alongside extensive strikes by the Israeli Air Force, the Mossad led a series of covert counter-terrorism operations deep inside Iran. These operations were designed to damage

Israel struck numerous military and nuclear targets in Iran overnight, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Of note, Iran has confirmed that Natanz nuclear facility was hit several times and has been reportedly destroyed. And among the casualties of the strikes by Israel were Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards

Financial Times is gated, link here if you can access the outlet. Earlier reports (see below) seemed focused on Sunday, FT ciitng people familiar now saying strikes could come as soon as today, Friday, June 13, 2025. What we know so far is that, Axios say that the Trump Administration has informed Israel that the

The Natanz nuclear facility was confirmed to have been hit several times and is reported to be “completely destroyed” here. The IAEA also notes that Iran has mentioned that its Bushehr nuclear power plant was not targeted in the overnight attacks by Israel. The Bushehr power plant is Iran’s first ever commercial nuclear reactor. This

US initial jobless claims 248K versus 240K estimate US May PPI +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion a 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.844% Trump signals a climb-down on immigration enforcement Trump: I don’t like that oil prices have gone up Trump: I would love to avoid a

The final piece of the Fed puzzle next week could be a meaningful one if Bank of America is right. The retail sales report is due on Tuesday, just one day ahead of the FOMC decision. The consensus for the headline right now is +0.1% but they expect it to be soft, including a ‘control

BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). 47.5, from 53.3 in April return to contraction after four consecutive months of expansion well below the average of 52.5 since it began BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: May result was disappointing the sector had appeared to have turned a corner at the start of 2025 BNZ’s Senior Economist

Shite House statement says Trump will hold a meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room Friday, June 13, 2025, at 11am to discuss the Israeli strikes in Iran Meanwhile, Iranian outlets claim that Iran will declare war on Israel and retaliate “soon.” — Summary so far: Israeli strikes hit key

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reports that Israel has detected missile launches from Iran This is not much of a surprise. Unconfirmed so far. An escalation. more to come As it unfolded: We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports

Deutsche Bank expects U.S. economic momentum to slow into the second half of the year, though a recession remains unlikely. Still, the bank cautions that rising trade tensions and policy unpredictability are starting to undermine the structural funding advantage the U.S. has long enjoyed. Strategists remain structurally bearish on the U.S. dollar, warning that reputational

The latest from Lutnick This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran, this via Axios: Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire state of Israel Israeli Defense Minister says following Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and its civilian population

Bank of America today succinctly waded into what I think is the most-important macroeconomic question right now: Was the 2000-2020 period of low inflation a sign of central banks taming inflation or a historical one-off that won’t be repeated in the future. Economist Michael Woodward writes: In the 20th century, the average inflation rate among

US indices close lower. Dow Industrial Average unchanged. Bessent says countries negotiating in good faith could see tariff deadlines rolled Canada/US reportedly exchanging potential terms on economic and security deal Cardholder data shows Canadian consumer spending continued to hold up in May Iran’s Mission to UN: Diplomacy not militarism is the only path forward. Crude

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is speaking in a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing Says countries negotiating in good faith could see trade deadlines rolled forward We are looking to insert fairness into China trade relationship China trade fairness could come thru reduced exports to U.S., or through a rebalancing of world’s two largest economies On other

Treasury Secretary Bessent sayd: EU has been “very intractable” (syn: extremely stubborn, hard to handle, resistant) in trade talks Does not think tariffs are taxes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The push me/pull me on Iran continues. Trump says: I want to have an agreement with Iran Fairly close to an agreement with Iran I’d prefer a more friendly path to an agreement There is a chance of a massive conflict. Something could happen soon… HMMMM… is the “something happen soon” and agreement or a

The “deal” is mainly just an exchange of easing of export controls. China will be easing that for rare earths and magnets but reports are suggesting it will only be temporary. Meanwhile, the US is supposedly to do the same on key technology but Bessent clarified yesterday that restrictions will still apply for AI chip

Last week’s less-dovish pivot from the ECB got the euro to 1.1490 and it’s back there now on a soft US CPI. So far, sellers at 1.1500 have defended both but it’s a battle worth watching carefully as it could bring the pair to the highest since 2021. Other than brief moment in late April,

Inflation likely to stay around 2% in the near future. He’s not providing anything new to his previous comments here. They’ve been making victory laps last week and now will just sit back and wait for the summer data before deciding what to do next. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

High yield 4.844% WI level at the time of the auction 4.859%. Tail -1.5 basis points versus the six month average of up +0.1 basis points. Bid-to-cover 2.43X vs six month average of 2.39X Directs (domestic buyers) 23.4% versus six month average of up 22.3% Indirects 65.2% versus six month average of 63.2% Dealers 11.4%

The USD is lower after the lower PPI data and the higher initial and continuing claims. The weakness in the jobs is a shift from the norm that has defined the range. Looking at the continuing claims data, the break higher is evident. For the initial claims, the trend has not broken out of the

Sector Overview Today’s stock market activity paints a dynamic picture, strongly influenced by the performance of different sectors. The technology sector emerged as a significant performer, led by gains in software infrastructure stocks. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) surged by 14.15%, showcasing robust investor confidence. Similarly, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) added 0.99% and 1.70% respectively, reflecting

Gold is climbing and nearing the $3400 mark. With last week’s high reaching $3403.44 that target is being approached. The current price is trading at $3,388 up $30.07 or 0.9% on the day. The high-priced reached $3,398.98 so far The peak for the year remains April’s high at $3500. Rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are

Initial jobless claims: Prior week initial jobless claims 247K revised to 248K Initial jobless claims 248K versus 240K estimate. Highest since October 2024 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 240.25K versus 235.25K last week Continuing claims: Prior week 1.902 million revised from 1.904 million. Continue climb to 1.956 million versus 1.910 million estimate.

Eurozone core inflation still elevated, but on a good path. Eurozone headline inflation will ease further in Q1 2026 due to energy price base effect, will return to 2% over medium term. ECB is in a good place in terms of monetary policy. We are very far from de-anchoring of inflation expectations to the downside.

On Iran, Trump says: Iran’s going to have to negotiate tougher I would love to avoid a conflict with Iran. Crude oil spiked to the downside on the comment to $67.71 but has sent back to $68 currently. The price is also back below its 200 day moving average near $68.45. Earlier today, the price

The Federal Reserve is saying that US household net worth fell to 169.3 trillion in Q1 2025: Real estate holdings fell by -$0.2 trillion in Q1. US stock market value fell by $-2.3 trillion in Q1 Nonfinancial debt expanded by 2.8% annualized rate in Q1. Total household debt increased by 1.9% annualized rate in Q1.

The weakness in the USD is extending. Catalysts cited include: easing trade tensions, or at least not worsened expectations of closer Fed rate cuts given the softer CPI EUR/USD has hit a seven-week high, and other FX is rising alongside, yen and Swissy notably. CAD, AUD, NZD are all laggards This article was written by

The AUDUSD continues to trade within a choppy but technically respectful range. On the 4-hour chart above, price action stalled yesterday after reaching to a new high for the year, but within a key swing area and the 61.8% retracement of the October-to-March move lower, between 0.65357 and 0.65537. Sellers leaned against that area and

The great, big, beautiful bill will grow the economy like it has never grown before. It is cutting expenses by $1.6 trillion. It puts our country on the right track. Trump’s bill is certainly important now for growth given the contractionary tariffs policy. I think the markets are pretty much sure the bill will pass,

Trump is out with a new message on immigration that signals that he’s not looking to deport illegal immigrants who have followed the law. This is in contrast to some of the reports lately — particularly in California — of a mass roundup of all illegal immigrants. Trump wrote: Our great Farmers and people in

Why is Boeing Stock Dropping Today? Critical Investor Update and Key Levels to Watch If you’ve been searching, “why is Boeing stock going down today,” you’re not alone. Boeing shares fell sharply today, June 12, following the unfortunate Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash near Ahmedabad. Initial reactions have driven the stock significantly lower, fueled

The GBPUSD extended higher today, reaching a new high for the year at 1.3622—the highest level since February 2022. This move also pushed the pair above last week’s high at 1.36158, signaling an attempt to continue the bullish trend. However, the breakout was short-lived. Momentum quickly faded, and the price reversed lower, failing to hold

Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks. Given his TACO reputation, probably not. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A 40-year-old British national sitting in Seat 11A reportedly walked away from the Air India crash today. I’m skeptical given that it went down in a huge fireball but it’s a slice of potential good news on a very tragic day. Footage shows him literally walking away from the crash site with only cuts and

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are still running high but at least likely to hold through the weekend. But if anything, it is the relative silence from China this afternoon that is something that stands out so far today. There’s only minimal commentary from both the foreign and commerce ministries, none providing too much

Rick Rieder is BlackRock CIO of Global Fixed Income. He says that with CPI coming in below expectations means “significantly increases the likelihood of Fed cuts this year, particularly if there is material slowing in employment.” In brief: US inflation came in softer than expected for the fourth straight month, with both headline and core

Pres. Trump is saying: Auto tariffs may go up in the not to distant future. Earlier Trump said that EV chargers are too expensive but likes Teslas He is all for electric if you buy the right one. EV is great He added that: Musk does like him; wants to talk to Musk about EVs

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 51 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 25 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 58 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 29 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 74 bps

Trump was asked by a reporter about oil prices and said he didn’t like rising oil prices. I wouldn’t exactly take that as a signal but it’s certainly not bullish. WTI has almost recovered to flat today. He also said: I’m not going to fire Powell Can’t get Powell to lower rates We’d like to

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Fitch Ratings has lowered its 2025 outlook for the global oil and gas sector to deteriorating, pointing to rising OPEC+ production, expanding non-OPEC+ supply, and the drag from U.S. tariffs. The agency now expects oil demand to rise by just 800,000 barrels per day—down from a previous forecast of over 1 million—and has cut its

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The EURUSD is racing to new highs as markets react to US policy, and perhaps some recognition that the ECB has done its easing while the US Fed may be pushed to ease sooner. US CPI came in less than expectations yesterday. The US PPI and Initial jobless claims data will be released today at

Recent developments may well have a dampening impact on growth in the Euro Area. The Euro Area economy has proved fairly resilient to date, supported by a strong labour market. The use of the US dollar in international funding, payment and trade transactions, or as a reserve currency, will not be challenged in the short

It’s a bit rich to think there could be any enforcement of the price cap — which isn’t really enforced already — without the US and its control of the global banking system. WTI crude is down $1.06 to $67.02 in a retracement of yesterday’s rally. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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The major US stock indices are closing lower led by the NASDAQ with a decline of -0.50%. The S&P index is down -0.27% while the Dow Industrial Average was virtually unchanged with a decline of -1.1 points. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average felt -1.1 points or 0.0% at 42865.77. S&P fell -16.57

The ECB has arrived at neutral level of rates. Important ECB doesn’t commit to one direction or another. Rates may still have to come down as risk has increased that inflation will be below projections. Important to take a pause on rates. I don’t reject possibility of another rate cut in 2025. Inflation may be

The USDCAD is trading lower on the day, down -0.42%, and has fallen below key technical levels on both the daily and 4-hour charts. On the daily chart (see chart above), the pair has broken beneath a rising trend line near 1.3650—now serving as close resistance—and is trading at its lowest level since October 8,

The US dollar is in freefall against the euro today and Treasury yields are sliding further. I suspect a big part of that is angst about a war in the Middle East but it’s a mixed bag. The focus will shift back to the US economy at the bottom of the hour with the weekly

Prior was +2.4% (revised to +2.5%) PPI +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m -0.5% (revised to -0.2%) Ex food and energy +3.0% y/y vs +3.1% expected Ex food and energy +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Ex food, energy and trade +2.7% vs +2.9% prior Ex food, energy and trade +0.1% vs -0.1% prior There

From the Reserve Bank of Australia at 5.20 pm Sydney time: 0720 GMT 0320 US Eastern time Speech by David Jacobs, Head of Domestic Markets Department topis is: Australia’s Bond Market in a Volatile World speaking at the Australian Government Fixed Income Forum, in Tokyo This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling up $3.17 or 4.88%. The high price reached $68.33. The low price was at $64.63. Prices moved sharply higher late today after reports that naval support activity in Bahrain have been placed on high alert with dependents of servicemembers being told to prepare for evacuation. The reports are possibly due

The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China signed the MoU on cooperation in the field of central banking this MoU updates the previous MoU of

German economy to grow by 0.3% in 2025 (previously 0.2%) German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2026 (previously 0.8%) German inflation seen at 2.1% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 On the revision higher, Ifo sees the new government measures boosting growth by 0.1% this year and by 0.7% for next year. This article was

Axios reporter with the info: White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday and discuss the Iranian response to the recent U.S. proposal, a U.S. official tells me Earlier: US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran Tensions

From the European Central Bank on the global use of the euro, in summary: Euro’s share across various indicators of international currency use largely unchanged at around 19% Emerging challenges include initiatives promoting global use of cryptocurrencies Upholding rule of law essential for maintaining, and potentially increasing, global trust in the euro And (bolding is

TD Securities has opened a tactical long position in gold hedge against escalating tensions in the Middle East sees gold as a low-risk safe haven amid potential regional instability set a one-month price target of $3,650 per ounce This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold remains mostly rangebound but with a bullish tilt given that in the bigger picture real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing and just a repricing in rate cuts expectations could weigh on it in the short term. That repricing hasn’t taken place as the data continues to favour at

In the European session, the main highlight was the release of the UK GDP. The data disappointed and dragged the GBP lower. Looking ahead, we don’t have much else on the agenda other than a lot of ECB speakers. In the American session, the focus will turn to the US PPI and the US Jobless

The euro is breaking out from an eight-week range and is at the best levels since November 2021. The three-and-a-half highs comes as the US dollar weakens broadly but there are also some euro-specific factors in play. Here are five things driving the move: 1) The latest leg comes after US initial jobless claims rose

Reuters reported that an Air India aircraft with more than 200 people crashed near the airport in India’s western city of Ahmedabad. The aircraft involved was Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, according to Flightradar data. Boeing did not immediately respond to a Reuters’ request for comment. Boeing stock ($BA) is down more than 7% in pre-market trading…

Chinese state media with the report, probably seeking to contrast with the overtly heavy handed restrictions being enforced in the us. China’s National Immigration Administration announced that, starting June 12, Indonesian travellers will be eligible for the country’s 240-hour visa-free transit policy. This brings the total number of participating countries to 55. The policy allows

US-Iran talks scheduled for this Sunday are evidently still set to go ahead but the picture is looking increasingly bleak. “We will continue enrichment and will go on our way and will not deviate from the current trend,” he said according to Sky News Arabia. Oil has backed off from the Asian highs but gold

Hopes US can work with China to implement what was agreed between the two presidents No specific details on what that is but I reckon we might only get some tidbits from the commerce ministry. We’ll see about that in the next hour or so. For now, this reinforces the notion that China will continue

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 and 1.1525 levels. The pair is now teasing the April highs, looking for firm clearance above the 1.1500 mark in general. The expiries might help to keep a lid on things

The pair found it tough to seek clearance above 1.1500 since April but buyers are definitely making a go at it today. A push above the April high of 1.1572 will then take the pair to the highest since 2021. As Trump tariffs look set to be more of a TACO trade, the recent optimism

Headlines: EUR/USD continues to grind higher, closes in on April high Gold Technical Analysis – Safe haven flows boost the precious metal Oil jump eases a little as traders deliberate Middle East tensions How have interest rates expectations changed after the US CPI report? China says have already issued some rare earth export licenses China

So far, there’s not much else in following up on the headline comment. The silence by China is definitely interesting. As for the above, it could be referring to this report from overnight. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

From the statement itself: On June 11, the Department of State ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel due to heightened regional tensions. Do not travel to Iraq due to terrorism, kidnapping, armed conflict, civil unrest, and the U.S. government’s limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Iraq. Do not travel

Despite a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—likely rose by 0.2% in May, up from 0.1% in April. This increase would elevate the year-over-year core PCE rate to 2.6% from 2.5% . The projected rise is attributed to the

Monetary policy cycle is coming to an end. Growth outlook broadly stable despite trade conflict. Medium-term inflation stabilizes at target. Financing conditions are no longer restrictive. Private consumption is supporting growth. Defence and infrastructure spending counteract tariffs. Energy prices and the Euro could change in either direction. I expect only limited trade diversion from China

TD has set a one-month Gold price target of $3,650 per ounce AUD traders – heads up for an RBA speaker today, Thursday, June 12, 2025 China Expands 10-day Visa-Free transit to 55 countries in total Australian consumer inflation expectations have jumped to 5% RBA to cut its cash rate in August & November 2025,

Japan Business Outlook Survey, the Large Manufacturing Conditions indes for Q2 2025 comes in at -4.8 expected +0.8, prior -2.4 Results right across the survey were very poor indeed: More reasons for a Bank of Japan pause. BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying BOJ expected to hold rates, slow pace

The U.S. and China have agreed on a tentative framework to revive trade negotiations, returning discussions to the post-Geneva status quo. As part of the deal, China will “immediately” begin issuing rare earth export licenses to U.S. firms—though these will be limited to six-month durations, according to The Wall Street Journal (gated). Despite this progress,

The EURGBP pair has been rising steadily in the past few weeks. The main reason is that the divergence between the ECB and the BoE is becoming more apparent to the market, but there are also long-term fundamental forces at play. The ECB is now near the end of its easing cycle, while the BoE

Tensions are ramping higher in the Middle East. Summary of where we are at: US officials are concerned over the high likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran, on military facilities the US diplomatic mission in Iraq has begun the emergency evacuation of diplomats the US is also said to be is preparing to evacuate

The reconciliation bill which is being part in the Senate, has no chance of being ready by July 4. This according to Republican Ted Cruz.. July 4th is the House of Representatives speakers Mike Johnson self-imposed deadline for passing the measure. Cruz tell PunchBowl news that the reconciliation bill could be finish by July 4

German DAX futures -0.8% UK FTSE futures -0.5% This mirrors the softness in US futures, which are also down 0.3% on the day. Wall Street also retreated yesterday but that owed much to a fall in tech shares. Geopolitical tensions are weighing of course but also as the US-China “deal” still has a lot of

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The surge higher in oil is being tempered by a move close to the 200-day moving average (blue line) at $68.45 as well. Overnight, we saw oil rally to its highest since April as the US called to move personnel from the Middle East here. The tensions ramped higher with word being that Israel was

No fixed position on future rate decisions. Decisions will depend on data. Believe in pragmatism and agility on monetary policy. As a reminder, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected recently and President Lagarde mentioned that they are near the end of their easing cycle. There are still expectations for one last

EUR/USD has been trading steadily higher and has now taken out 1.1500: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Expectations for a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations remain subdued despite Trump’s announcement of a potential deal. According to Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist at Capital Economics, the agreement focuses narrowly on non-tariff issues—such as rare earth export controls—while leaving core trade tensions unaddressed. Crucially, existing tariffs remain untouched. Although the resumption of dialogue may

CBS News senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs with the info: US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran. This is part of the reason the US advised some Americans to leave region. US anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain US sites in Iraq. Witkoff is still planning

Eurostoxx -0.5% Germany DAX -0.8% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.4% Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This follows from the drop yesterday with US futures also looking more cautious today as well. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% as we look to get things going in European trading. Just be mindful that

Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia, June 2025 come in at 5% from May’s 4.1% — AUD has been a sad underperformer on the session … EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF are all higher against the USD. CAD is little changed, but AUD and NZD are weak. Earlier: RBA to cut its cash

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. NZD/USD barely moving: ps., this posted yesterday if you are interested: RBNZ (ex) governor Orr resigned abruptly over government

ECBs Villeroy is speaking and says: ECB situation is favorable That does not mean that policy is a stable This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.2% Services -0.4% m/m Prior +0.4% Industrial output -0.6% m/m Prior -0.7% Manufacturing output -0.9% m/m Prior -0.8% Construction output +0.9% m/m Prior +0.5% The main drag comes from a decline in services output, which was the first monthly drop since October last year. Overall, there were falls in 9 of the 14 subsectors

Reports are that a US official has said it’s looking less and less likely that the sixth round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran will go ahead as scheduled on Sunday in Oman. Given developments on Wednesday this is not surprising U.S. evacuating personnel from the Middle East amid growing tensions with Iran

The US yields are moving lower with a 10-year yield now down just under 6 basis points after the successful auction at 1 PM ET. That has the dollar moving lower. The GBPUSD is trading to a new session highs. On the hourly chart above, the price has extended above key swing highs from yesterday

The NZDUSD continues to trade in a choppy range, and the recent move above the old ceiling between 0.60183 and 0.60284 is showing signs of fading. That swing area—tested multiple times over the past few weeks—remains a key barometer for near-term bias. A sustained move back below 0.60183 would shift the tilt back to the

China will resume issuing rare-earth export licenses to U.S. automakers and manufacturers, but only for six months, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The Wall Street Journal carried the report (gated). In summary … The move, a key development from recent trade talks in London, offers short-term relief while preserving Beijing’s ability to tighten

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ monthly house price balance dropped to -8 in May expected -4 from -3 in April weakest since July 2024 RICS analyst comment: “Sentiment across the UK residential property market remains somewhat subdued, with ongoing uncertainty around global trade policies and the dampening effect of transactions being brought forward ahead of

Trump still spouting rubbish on trade. This is absurd. Would be willing to extend trade talks deadline but doesn’t think it will be necessary Despite all his promises on imminent trade deals there has not yet been even one. Total b/s from this guy. More: dealing with Japan and South Korea on trade At a

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Via Westpac, in brief: RBA to hold in July to cut in August and November lower inflation outlook now makes two further cuts in early 2026 likely, February and May WPAC caveat the 2026 call with: the cuts could be earlier (December and February or February and March) if inflation and the labour market turn

USD/JPY has fallen further on a report that the Naval Support activity in Bahrain has been placed on ‘high alert’ with dependants of service members being told to prepare for evacuation. The logical jump here is that something could be happening with Iran. The S&P 500 quickly drop by 30 points on the headlines and

The headline on this from earlier is here: Bessent says countries negotiating in good faith could see tariff deadlines rolled Adding more now, from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testimony in Congress, the House Ways and Means Committee: Trump is “highly likely” to push back his July 8 deadline to reach deals with top trading partners

The calendar is lower tier data only, nothing here to move FX around too much. Eyes on the headlines again. Yesterday we had a classic from Lutnick: “a handshake for a framework” to “start to implement that framework” Two days of talks and that’s what he announced. Very underwhelming. Let’s see what today brings. This

Well ’90 deals in 90 days’ is truly dead at this point. Bessent says he will go with Trump next week, expects them to meet with Canada’s Carney This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Geopolitics: Iran Mission to UN: threats of overwhelming force won’t change facts. Iran is not seeking nuclear weapon, and US militarism only fuels instability Diplomacy not militarism is the only path forward. Meanwhile, Iran’s Pres. Pezeshkian says: They are holding talks with the US and Europe, but they will not surrendering to force This article

The Globe and Mail is reporting that: Canada and the US are reportedly exchanging potential terms on economic and security deal This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canadians have had plenty to worry about in Trump’s second term. The 51st State talk touched a nerve and tipped an election, while the tariffs upended confidence in the economy. Despite that, there has been no sign of slowing consumer spending. RBC reports — citing its cardholder data — that retail sales rose 0.7% in

According to the Wall Street Journal: China to limit rare-earth export licenses to U.S. automakers and manufacturers to six months, adding leverage and uncertainty amid trade tensions. The temporary licenses were restored after two days of intense talks in London, following a Geneva agreement last month. In exchange, U.S. agreed to ease restrictions on sales

Blackstone plans to invest up to $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, CEO Steve Schwarzman told Bloomberg, citing improving growth prospects amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. The firm has already deployed around US$100 bn in the U.K., including into data centres and logistics assets. European warehouse investments remain among Blackstone’s most profitable, with the

Prior was -4304K Gasoline +1504K vs +853K Distillates +1246K vs +824K API data from late yesterday: Crude -370K Gasoline +3969K Distllates +3712K WTI crude oil was trading at a two-month high ahead of this report, up $1.57 to $66.55. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market reveals a mixed landscape, with significant differentiations across sectors. The semiconductor sector experienced a notable uptick, with AVGO up by 2.17% and MU gaining 2.36%, marking a strong day for technology. However, on the other end, INTC fell sharply by 4.30%, reflecting investor caution around certain tech stocks. In contrast,

Boeing urges Trump administration to ensure tariff-free treatment for airplanes Chinese steel production expected to decline by 4% in 2025 BoE Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Benjamin speaking today Some European Central Bank speakers Wednesday, including Chief Economist Philip Lane PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1815 (vs. estimate at 7.1801)

The wait is nearly over, iFX EXPO International 2025 is almost here, and the excitement is palpable! Taking place in Limassol from the 17th to the 19th of June, this landmark event is the ultimate meeting point for individuals and brands in the online trading ecosystem. The expo is widely recognised as being the gathering

7.1815 is the strongest, for the CNY, since April 2 The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a

Speaking on CNBC: China is going to approve all applications for magnets for US companies Trump-Xi has to approve final wording I am really excited about how this is going to work for America China is always trying to remove export controls. This is an American agreement only. Not for other countries We will take

“A Federal Appeals Court has just ruled that the United States can use TARIFFS to protect itself against other countries. A great and important win for the U.S.” In case you missed the news from overnight here. The latest ruling sees the can kicked down the road to 31 July, so Trump’s tariffs will be

Oil demand will continue to rise well into the future, with no peak expected through 2050, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday. Speaking at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Al Ghais cited OPEC’s forecast for a 24% increase in global energy demand by 2050, with oil consumption expected to surpass 120

Expectations: Crude oil -1.960 million. Distillates +0.824M Gasoline +0.853 million The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude oil is trading at $66.50 up $1.51 or 2.34%. The price is above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April 3 (blue line on the chart below). The last time the price broke above

The major European indices are closing the day mostly lower. The exception is the UKs FTSE 100 which rose 0.23%. A snapshot of the closing levels are showing: German DAX -0.06% France’s CAC -0.34% UK FTSE 100 +0.23% Spain’s Ibex -0.59% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.09% The EURUSD is stretching to new highs as European/London traders

Bitcoin is at the best levels since May 27, rising above $110,000 and within striking distance of the all-time high of $111,965 set on May 22. The latest boost comes after Commerce Sec Howard Lutnick said that talks with China were going very well and would hopefully wrap up tonight (it’s 8:30 pm in London).

Prior was 4.342% Bid to cover 2.52 vs 2.60 prior The notes were trading at 4.428% in the ‘when issued’ market so this is a 0.7 bps stop through. Today’s CPI report certainly helped demand for bonds and 10-year OTR yields are now down 5.6 bps on the day to 4.418%. There has been a

The NASDAQ index traded up as much as 85.47 points in trading today, but has reversed course and now is trading at a new session low down -40.42 points. Nvidia shares have moved lower and currently trade down -0.64%. Intel and AMD shares are also lower. The Dow industrial average is still higher by 83

Headlines: EU aims for US trade talks to extend past Trump’s July deadline. Japan prime minister Ishiba says making steady progress in tariff negotiations with US Trump says court ruling to allow tariffs to stay in place is a great and important win Trump: Less confident about Iran deal Trump on whether he could reconcile

The US Treasury will auction $39 billion in 10-year notes at 1:00 PM ET. Yesterday the treasury auctioned off 3-year notes, which were met by average demand from both international and domestic buyers. The results will be closely watched, with investor demand measured against the 5-key component 6-month auction averages. Metrics to watch vs 6-auction

CBC reports that there are working documents outline details of a potential US-Canada trade deal. There have been numerous reports over the past two weeks indicating talks and a potential deal before the G7 on June 15. The report cites three sources with direct knowledge of the situation. “There are warnings from multiple sources that

Consider moving money around the world in seconds or buying a stake in a building by simply holding a digital token. These concepts would have appeared unthinkable a few years ago. However, in 2025, users and institutions understand how blockchain and cryptocurrencies help address typical financial problems. That’s why, in 2025, Institutional adoption has accelerated

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day. The NASDAQ index is the strongest of the indices with a gain of 0.63%. Hopes for an agreement with China and the US helped to support the market. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow Industrial Average rose 105.11 points or 0.25% at

Michael Saylor says Bitcoin is ‘going to $1mn’. Saylor spoke with Bloomberg. Saylor is head of BTC hoarding firm Strategy, says on BTC: “Winter is not coming back” “We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million.” said that the growing number of public companies purchasing Bitcoin are buying

As a whole, that’s down considerably from the 4.7% reading in 2024. The first quarter of 2025 also shows a notable drop in negotiated wages, down to 4.6% from 5.4% in the final quarter of 2024. Slowing wages will just bolster the ECB’s policy path and painted narrative on the inflation outlook. Here’s the latest

Both sides should enhance consensus, maintain communication China is not willing to fight but not afraid to do so if needed This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Europe has now awakened to the importance of AI data factories. We are building AI technology centers in seven different countries. Europe is building 20 more AI factories that are gigafactories. In two years, Europe’s AI computing capacity will increase by a factor of 10. Last week, we got reports that Nvidia was going to

Prior -3.9% Market index 254.6 vs 226.4 prior Purchase index 170.9 vs 155.0 prior Refinance index 707.4 vs 611.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.93% vs 6.92% prior After weeks of slumping, mortgage applications bounced back strongly in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activities surging higher. The jump in the purchase index in

Treasury Secretary Bessent is back in Washington and made his scheduled testimony appointment on Capitol Hill. In addition to speaking about the China deal, he adds on the economy, that: Capital investments will increase once tax and spending bill is enacted. Just ahead is a interview with commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick on CNBC This article

Earlier, we noted that Trump spoke in a New York Post podcast and said he was much less confident in a nuclear deal with Iran. That has led to strong gains in crude with WTI up $1.25 to $66.23. “They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame, but I’m less confident now

Trump will sign three resolutions on Thursday abolishing California’s electric vehicle sales mandates and diesel engine rules US politics site Politico with the report. more to come I wonder if its personal? At least some of it. Regardless, TSLA shareholders will be paying attention to this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the first vehicle to autonomously drive itself from the factory directly to a customer’s home is scheduled for June 28 public Robotaxi rides are tentatively set to begin on June 22 Musk wants some sizzle back in TSLA after his political distractions. Earlier news on EVs: Trump to sign three

Upbeat comments from Lutnick and stocks are quickly higher with the S&P 500 touching the highs of the day. We will try to finish things tonight Talks could go into tomorrow if needed “We’re working on all sorts of trade issues. I think the talks are going really well,” he told press outside of Lancaster

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0900/0500 Keynote speech followed by fireside chat by ECB board member Claudia Buch at Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Buch is Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board 0930/0530 Panel participation by ECB board member Philip Lane at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland Philip

The USDJPY rallied ahead of the US CPI release but stalled after reaching the 50% retracement of the decline from the May high. Once the weaker-than-expected CPI data was released, sellers took control, pushing the pair sharply lower. The decline broke below the 38.2% retracement level at 144.651 and the 100-hour moving average, currently at

Just as Tesla was starting to bounce back after months of intense scrutiny, fueled mainly by Elon Musk’s deepening involvement in politics, another storm has hit. And this time, it’s personal. Musk took a jab at Donald Trump, and surprise, surprise: Tesla’s stock took a hit, subsequently impacting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. In short,

The NZDUSD moved higher following the weaker-than-expected US CPI report, which triggered broad USD weakness and lifted the pair toward the highs for the week. However, the rally lost steam just as price tested the upper end of the recent range, failing to break through resistance near 0.6070. Technically, the dip earlier in the day

Futures rollover refers to the process where traders close out positions in the expiring contract and open new ones in the next available contract. This is crucial for traders in U.S. equity index futures, such as the S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ), Dow Jones (YM), and Russell 2000 (RTY), as these contracts have set

Headline CPI: CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% expected (some forecasts were 2.4%) Prior was +2.9% m/m reading at +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (unrounded consensus was +0.16%) Month-over-month unrounded +0.081% vs +0.221% prior Core CPI: Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.9% expected Core CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (some forecasts were +0.27%) Core unrounded +0.130% vs +0.237%

Less confident about Iran deal. Crude oil prices are surging on this comment made in a New York Post Podcast interview. Unfortunately it was reported a bit later by the newswires, so those who caught the interview managed to capitalise on the move (this is why the big boys invest so heavily in information. That’s

US headline CPI rose 2.4% y/y in line with some forecasts but below the 2.5% consensus and down from 2.9% prior. Monthly CPI was up 0.1% (unrounded +0.081%), also softer than expected. Core CPI increased 2.8% y/y (vs 2.9% expected) with a monthly gain of 0.1% (unrounded +0.130%), showing continued disinflation. Key drivers included declines

Well, it looks like the tensions are behind us. At some point, it looked like a real risk for the economy as a whole as Musk could try to block the Trump’s tax bill. That’s what led to the selloff in risk assets that eventually got erased as things started to improve. This article was

Global equities are likely to trend higher over the next three months U.S. stocks possibly playing catch-up to other markets medium-term outlook is less certain Near-term upward bias is supported by a resilient macro backdrop and muted fallout from recent tariffs. Balance of risks worsens beyond the Q3: with equity markets already near their highs,

This idea has been floated multiple times over past years. Its getting a redo in the headlines again today. Sichuan province city Mianyang is considering a 2.5-day weekend businesses to close on Friday afternoons, along with Saturdays and Sundays Mianyang is the second-largest city in Sichuan province in terms of gross domestic product, it has

IF China will uphold its end of the initial Geneva trade agreement, a ‘big, beautiful rebalancing’ of US and China economies is possible I think ‘possible’ is doing a lot of work here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is out with a message on Truth Social about the deal with China. Naturally, he wrote it in all caps: OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO

The US CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM ET with the expectation of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core. That data may be the catalyst for more price action in the currency markets. In today’s video, I break down the latest movements in the US dollar against three of

The EURUSD is trading higher after a softer-than-expected US CPI report triggered a broad USD selloff. The weaker inflation data reinforced market expectations for rate cuts, pushing the pair sharply higher. However, the rally stalled just below the key resistance from last week’s high, with today’s peak reaching 1.1489—just shy of the 1.14935 high from

German DAX futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes as S&P 500 futures are also seen down 0.3% on the day. So far, we only know that the US and China have agreed on a plan/framework to ease tensions a bit more moving forward. The expectation is that it will involve an exchange of

We’ve witnessed a pretty bad spat between Musk and Trump last week on social media with both of them firing shots at each other. At some point, Musk might have gone too far claiming that Trump was on Epstein files. Nonetheless, this looks like an apology and the worst might be behind us. It’s hard

Prior month -4.1% revised to -5.3% Building permits for April -6.6% vs 2.0% estimate. Much worse than expectations on the month and revision. The USDCAD has moved lower as the market is paying attention to the lower US CPI data initially at least. That is driving the USD against ALL the major currencies. A look

Trump is tweeting up a storm this morning: Adding to the China readout, President XI and I are going to work closely together to open up China to American Trade. This would be a great WIN for both countries!!! Let’s see what comes next. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Cut last week helps keep price undershoot temporary. Again more focus on the risk of undershooting on their inflation target. The market expects just one final rate cut in December. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.6% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% as investors are still digesting what may come from the final details of the US-China trade talks in London over the past two days. Coming up later, we also have

Quite likely keeping 2% inflation will require some further cuts for fine tuning. Market pricing of one more cut or so not out of the realm of the baseline. Fine-tuning cuts will very much depend on how the economy develops. May at some point, not yet by any means, go into accommodative territory. Must be

An official cited by Bloomberg: Trump will hold new China tariffs at 30% 10% baseline 20% fentanyl Total effective tariff rate will be 55% I don’t understand how the math here works. Update from a Bloomberg reporter: I’m told the “55%” he cites here is the status quo – no change from last month’s truce.

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1000 GMT/0600 US Eastern time – Speech by Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at Bank of England Nathanael Benjamin at the Global investment management summit ‘Delivering financial stability and economic growth for investment management This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level once more. The expiries are likely to keep price action more limited in the session ahead, centered around the figure level with the 200-hour moving average at 1.1404 helping to

Seems like talks are not proceeding that quickly despite Trump saying that his previous 50% tariff threat sped up the process. The US-China talks are a testament to that as they haven’t reached a deal but just a framework to implement the Geneva agreements. Of course, this shouldn’t be a surprise given that this stuff