Bank of America analysts reaffirm their belief that U.S. equities remain firmly positioned within a secular bull market that originated from the depths of the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The bullish trajectory, they note, first solidified in 2013 when the S&P 500 surpassed its pre-GFC all-time highs. Despite significant disruptions, including the pandemic-induced pullback […]

Gasoline +2348K vs +2060K expDistillates -3180K vs +661K expRefinery utilization -0.6% vs -0.2% exp Private oil data released late yesterday: Crude -4700KGasoline +2400KDistillates +700K Ahead of the data, WTI crude oil was up 82-cents to $70.90, having erased all of the decline on Tuesday. Crude increased further since the data. This article was written by

Historically, the best single day to own stocks is any day that the Federal Reserve is making a decision. Many in the market are worried about a hawkish Powell today once again but during his term he’s proven over and over that he is more-inclined to be dovish. Eyes today will be on the dots,

Also prudent not to pre-commit to any particular rate pathDisinflation process is well on trackDomestic inflation should come downFinancing conditions remain restrictiveDetermined to ensure that inflation stabilises at 2% Once again, all of this just continues to echo the message from his peers and rebuffs their communique from last week’s policy decision. EUR/USD remains flat

The major US stock indices are opening little changed on the day. Yesterday, the major indices all fell with the Dow industrial average falling for its ninth consecutive day – mainly on the declines from UnitedHealth and Nvidia over that period which saw their prices decline by over 20% and over 10% respectively. A snapshot

The main highlight in the European session was the UK CPI report which was basically in line with estimates. Looking ahead, we will also get the Eurozone CPI data but given that it’s the Final reading, the market won’t care much about it. In the American session, we have the US Housing Starts and Building

Prior quarter $-266.8 billion revised to $-275.0BCurrent Account -$310.8B vs -$284.0B estimate Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents increased $6.0 billion to $1.21 trillion in the third quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents increased $42.0 billion to $1.52 trillion.1 Exports of goods

Justin had the news on Tuesday here: China is said to be planning a record budget deficit of 4% of GDP for next year. That will be a step up from the target of 3% of GDP for this year. To 4% from 3% is substantial. Justin adds the caveat: Just be wary that all

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. However, watch out for the very, very much larger expiries on Friday! The one for today is for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level once again. And that is likely to help keep price action more muted closer to the figure

The USD is little changed with the DXY index down marginally. THe change in the USD vs the EUR, CAD, GBP is less than 0.5%. The USD is higher vs the AUD (+0.25%) and the NZD (+0.33%) as those currencies continue their move lower and have each broken below key floors on their daily charts

Headlines: AUD/USD extends downside run, eyes on the October 2023 lows nextECB’s Wunsch: Impact of tariffs depends on reaction in the exchange rateECB’s Wunsch: There is no appetite to change inflation targetECB’s Lane: It is prudent to maintain meeting-by-meeting approachECB’s Lane: The argument for cutting by 50 bps was to show we are no longer

In The GBPUSD started the NY session on a positive note, trading above both the 100-hour moving average (MA) and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart (blue lines outlined on the price above). US Morning Session: The price initially dipped but found support near the converging 100-bar MAs (hour and 4-hour chart) at 1.2686,

Major currencies are mostly little changed with exception of the aussie and kiwi today. Both the antipodes are being pulled lower, breaking to fresh lows for the year. AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6311 now upon a break of key technical support from the August low highlighted here. Meanwhile, NZD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.5735

Gold Futures Analysis: Key Levels and Near-Term Outlook 🏆📊 February 2025 Contract | 50 Range Chart Analysis Current Overview Gold futures are trading within a tight range, showing mixed momentum as buyers and sellers battle for control. While buyers have stepped in at critical support levels, sell-side activity has reemerged, signaling potential hesitation near resistance.

China’s bond market is screaming the “D” word. “D” as in depression.US dollar reaction on Fed hints at slowing the pace of interest-rate cuts may be mutedAustralia regulator pursuing Binance Australia Derivatives re consumer protection failuresBOJ is expected to hold its policy rate at 0.25% in its December 18-19 meeting – previewICYMI – Switzerland has

The USD/CHF reached its highest level since July this week but fell short of the key resistance zone on the daily chart, located between 0.8986 and 0.90178. This area remains a critical topside target, and a break above it would open the door for further upside momentum. Buyers will be eyeing this level closely in

Prior -19 Ouch. That’s the biggest plunge in the order book balance since November 2020. Adding to that, the manufacturing output volume for the past three months also experienced its sharpest decline since August 2020. And for the coming three months, output expectations were the weakest since May 2020. It’s not a good sign as

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The gains are marginal and isn’t reflective of much to start the session. US futures are higher but again, it’s still early in the day with Wall Street yet to have their say and then we also have the Fed coming

We’re not going to make up for what is difficult on the political frontIt is not our role to supercharge the economy in the face of structural issuesNot sure if there is a broad consensus of having to react forcefully to inflation below 2%We will look at inflation, wages, growth, PMI in deciding policy There

Fundamental Overview Copper recently got a boost from the Chinese Politburo announcement that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025 and will seek a “more proactive” fiscal policy. These were key changes in the language that triggered a rally in Chinese stocks and commodity linked markets. Unfortunately, as it’s been

Composite Index up 0.6% m/m, accelerating from October’s 0.4%Year-over-year increase of 2.4%, up from 1.4% in OctoberPrices have gained 2.2% since BoC’s first rate cut in June Year-over-year standouts: Quebec City: +11.8%Calgary: +9.8%Montreal: +6.8%Victoria: -1.3%Toronto: -0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US November retail sales control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expectedCanada CPI for November 0.0% versus 0.1% estimateNAHB December US housing market index 46 vs 47 expectedUS November industrial production -0.1% vs +0.3% expectedUS treasury sells $13B of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.686%Honda and Nissan to begin merger talksNew Zealand Q4 consumer

Google Stock Analysis: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Insights 🚀 Current Overview Alphabet (GOOG) stock, what many still call Google stock, is trading near $198.54, aligning with yesterday’s VWAP—a critical price magnet. Price has retraced upward after testing the $196.90 support (yesterday’s VAL) and is now aiming for junctions that could trigger significant market reactions. 🔑

National Australia Bank are sticking with their forecast for the first Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut at the May 2025 meeting, although acknowledge February is a possibility. More from NAB’s report: Unemployment Outlook: Expected to peak at 4.3% before easing to 4.2% by 2026 as the economy stabilizes.Employment growth remains positive, with unemployment settling

🚀 NVDA Stock Price Prediction: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Analysis for Traders 📊 NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Update | February 2025 Contract Current Overview: NVDA Price Prediction by AI 📈 NVIDIA (NVDA) stock price is rebounding strongly in pre-market, up approximately 6% from the ForexLive.com AI prediction and trade idea from yesteday for NVDA after testing

Prior +2.3%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.6% y/y expectedPrior +3.3% The figures are consistent with a rise in prices on an annual basis for November, that after Ofgem removed the energy price cap back in October. In any case, this just reaffirms the case for the BOE to stay on hold for this week. Looking at

Prior +5.4%Market index 224.0 vs 225.5 priorPurchase index 157.1 vs 154.9 priorRefinance index 617.5 vs 634.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.75% vs 6.67% prior Overall mortgage applications fell in the past week but there is a mixed showing. Purchases activity were higher, recovering from the setback in the week prior but refinancing activity fell after the

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Analysis: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Price Prediction 🚀 Current Overview Tesla (TSLA) stock is showing retracement strength in pre-market after initial sell-side pressure, with price approaching today’s VWAP at $468.74. While price is attempting to recover, the overall bias remains cautious as sellers dominated early sessions. Traders must closely watch Tesla’s reaction

Fundamental Overview The fundamentals in the crude oil market haven’t changed much. The price action remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish for fear of the

A larger euro depreciation would cushion the impact of tariffs on growthBut it would make a larger impact on inflationIf euro touches parity against the dollar, we wouldn’t lose as much in terms of competitivenessI guess we’ll land with rates somewhere around 2%Four more rate cuts is a meaningful scenario that I feel relatively comfortable

The number of foreign visitors in November was 3.19 million, just slightly down from the monthly record in October last month of 3.31 million. As a whole in the 11 months in 2024, Japan has had 33.4 million visitors and that beats out the previous record set out for the whole of 2019 which was

Chinese equities are in a precarious place. They’re cheap but testing the lows of the pop that started in late-September. That could go either way as investors could bid up those companies in part due to the lack of alternatives. I think the best way to look at China is through the investable universe: Equities

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury yields

Forward rates curve shows that delivering on 2% target requires more rate cuts to come Well, they did remove the wording that rates were “sufficiently restrictive” after their policy decision last week here. That even as they did settle on a 25 bps rate cut, instead of a 50 bps move. This article was written

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin is now up more than 50% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet. Another bullish driver has been the US economy which not only has been

🚀 Bitcoin Price Prediction by AI and: Key Levels to Watch for Current Range-Bound Trading 📊 Current Overview: Bitcoin Futures (December Contract) Bitcoin futures are currently consolidating within a well-defined range as buyers struggle to gain control, and sellers maintain slight dominance. Price remains capped at key resistance while testing critical support levels, creating a

New Zealand consumer confidence rose to 97.5 in Q4 from 90.8 in the prior quarter, according to the Westpac McDermott Miller survey. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A Wall Street Journal opinion piece. Which seems to be well-founded. China’s Bond Yields Scream the ‘D’ Word The Journal is gated, but in very brief from the article: China’s bond market reflects deep economic stress, with 10-year sovereign yields falling to 1.7% and 30-year yields below 2%. businesses are struggling, unemployment is severe, and

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% The changes are light as we look to the session ahead, with US futures also keeping slightly calmer for now. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% but all eyes are on the Fed today to dictate the overall risk mood. In Wall Street, the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $69.65. That is down $0.64 or -0.89%. The low for the day reached $68.84. The high was at $70.50. Looking at the daily chart, the price high from Friday’s trade stalled right under the 100-day moving average is $71.30. Stay below that moving average keeps the

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut Fed Funds by 25bp at today’s meeting. Statement due at 1400 US Eastern time Looking further out is muddier, though. The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos: Over the past year, officials have slowly raised their estimates of where rates will settle out, and

Japan trade balance data for November 2024 Slumping imports are generally taken to mean the economy is performing poorly. Japan’s economy is not giving a rock star like performance, but its on the improve. Exports to the US -8% y/ythe EU -12.5% y/yChina +4.1% y/yAsia +8.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Bank of Japan (BOJ) December policy meeting concludes on Thursday. As always, there is no firmly scheduled time for the Bank’s Statement. Its reasonable to expect it sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window. 2130 – 2230 US Eastern time The BOJ is expected to hold its policy rate at 0.25% during its

Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has filed allegations in the Federal Court claiming that more than 500 retail clients of Oztures Trading Pty Ltd, operating as Binance Australia Derivatives (Binance), were incorrectly classified as wholesale clients, depriving them of essential consumer protections. Between 7 July 2022 and 21 April 2023, Binance reportedly provided crypto

US media with the report: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Michael McCaul said Tuesday that he believes that some unidentified drones spotted above New Jersey and New York are “spy drones” from China“I was with the NASA administrator, Bill Nelson, he said that these drones have been reported over military sites, military bases. I would

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey finds that investor sentiment is “super-bullish” in December, reflecting a surge in optimism about economic growth and financial markets. The survey highlights: Record-Low Cash Allocation: Investors have cut cash holdings to record lows.Record-High U.S. Stock Allocation: Allocation to U.S. equities has reached unprecedented levels.Global Risk Appetite: Risk

When Argentina was mentioned just a year ago, economists immediately thought of three things: skyrocketing inflation, the devaluation of the Argentine peso, and government default. These issues became defining features of the Peronist and, later, Kirchnerist governments. However, as history has shown, trying to combat inflation by increasing public spending doesn’t work in practice and

Bank of America analysts suggest the dollar may show little reaction even if the Federal Reserve hints at slowing the pace of interest-rate cuts during its decision on Wednesday. While the market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate reduction, the Fed could also indicate a pause in January. Slower rate cuts would typically support the dollar, but

South Korea Finance Minister Choi: will utilise all available resources to manage the economy as stably as possible. South Korea Foreign Minister Cho noted that US President Biden expressed confidence in Korean democracy and support for the bilateral alliance in a recent phone call.Cho stated they will make every effort to bring diplomacy back to

Headlines via Reuters: Australia sees 2024/25 budget deficit at A$26.9 bln vs A$28.3 bln projected in MayAustralia sees 2025/26 budget deficit at A$46.9 bln, 2026/27 A$38.4 blnAustralia sees GDP growth at 1.75% in 2024/25, 2.25% in 2025/26Australia sees unemployment rate at 4.5% in 2024/25, through to 2026/27Australia government sees net debt at A$1.16 trillion in

High yield 4.686%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.671% Details Tail: 1.5 bps vs 6-month average 0.6bpsBid-to-Cover: 2.50X vs 6-month average 2.57xDealers: 17.9% vs 6-month average 13.3%Directs ( a measure of domestic demand): 20.1% vs 6-month average 15.3%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 62.0% vs 6-month average 71.4% Auction Grade: D- The auction

Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for November improves a touch again. Info in brief from the WPAC report: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, stayed in positive territory in the November, lifting slightly

NZD not a lot moved, up a tic or so. The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from foreign investments and payments made on investments from abroad within NZ. In addition, it covers transfers like

There are multiple factors weighing on the hapless AUD. The only fresh news today is the ballooning debt: Australian government forecasts ballooning debt AUD/USD to its lowest since late November 2023: In a ‘hold my beer’ moment, the NZD/USD is to its lowest since November 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CNBC is reporting that Honda and Nissan are beginning merger talks. If you are not Tesla, and you are an auto maker, you are not doing too well. Honda shares are down -17.57% in 2024 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations for change I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.6 mn barrelsDistillates +0.7 mn bblsGasoline +2.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Greg had the merger scuttlebutt talks overnight: Honda and Nissan to begin merger talks Updating now – Reuters reports the two are discussing setting up a holding company. More: Merger Talks: Nikkei reports Honda and Nissan are discussing a potential merger under a holding company.Inclusion of Mitsubishi: Mitsubishi Motors (24% owned by Nissan) may also

The Dow extended its longest losing streak since 1978 to 9 trading days. That streak has been largely attributed to UniitedHealth. The price of that stock is down -22.0% since December 4. However, Nvidia is also down -11.02% over the last 9 trading days (so it isn’t a one hit wonder). The Nasdaq index and

Credit Agricole anticipates a 25bp rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, lowering the fed funds target range to 4.25-4.50%. While this is broadly expected, a hawkish tone could emerge, with the Fed signaling slower cuts in 2025 amid resilient economic conditions and sticky inflation. Key Points: Expected Action: 25bp rate cut, marking the third

Prior was 46 The creep higher in rates isn’t going to help the undersupply of US housing, nor is the tough housing market in Florida. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Interactive Brokers chairman Thomas Peterffy spoke in an interview with Bloomberg. bitcoin crash could trigger a broader stock market declinerising leverage in bitcoin futures poses significant risks to broader assets”A downturn is a very big risk because margin balances have been growing very, very quickly,” “I am very worried that people overextended themselves,”(BTC is) “basically

Prior control group was -0.1% Headline retail sales +0.7% versus +0.4% expectedPrior m/m sales +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)Retail sales $724.6 billion versus $718.9 billion priorRetail sales y/y +3.8% versus +2.85% prior (highest since Dec 2023)Ex autos +0.2% versus +0.4% expectedPrior ex autos +0.1% prior (revised to +0.2%)Ex autos and gas +0.2% versus +0.1% prior Ahead

Updated Perspective for NVDA Stock Holders and Potential Buyers. Recent order flow data of NVDA stock suggests that the selling pressure has been more dominant than buying over the last sequence of bars. While there have been occasional positive deltas—indicating brief periods where buyers stepped in—the overall tone still skews slightly bearish. This environment may

The US treasury will auction $13B of 20-year bonds at 1 PM ET. The last auction of the issue was sold at a high yield of 4.68% The current yield is just below that level at 4.653% ahead of the auction. BMO has outlined the Pros and Cons heading into the auction: Pros 20s have

News here: 7.4 magnitude earthquake Vanuatu New Zealand authorities: Let’s hope the folks in Vanuatu are fine and no one has been injured. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian population growth has been a major reason for the ongoing downfall of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, though his government is now trying to reverse it. Statistics Canada is out with the Q3 population report and it shows: Quarterly growth of 176,699 people (+0.4%) — slowest quarterly growth since Q1 2022Canada’s population reached 41,465,298non-permanent resident

Prior 85.7Current conditions 85.1 vs 84.0 expectedPrior 84.3Expectations 84.4 vs 87.5 expectedPrior 87.2 The struggle continues for the German economy as business sentiment falls further to wrap up the year. That is the lowest reading since May 2020, with the outlook index slumping hard in the latest Ifo report. The expectations reading is down to

China’s capital markets experienced a record net outflow of $45.7 billion in November The data tracking cross-border investments in stocks and bonds was released by China’s foreign exchange regulator (State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is overseen by the People’s Bank of China) on Monday. portfolio investment receipts amounted to $188.9 billion Cross-border receipts

Bitcoin Directional Bias Prediction Score by AI: +1 (Slightly Bullish) As Bitcoin continues to evolve as a major player in the digital asset space, savvy investors and traders remain keenly interested in the nuances of its intraday price behavior. Understanding the structure and key reference points—such as Value Areas and VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)—can help

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q comes in at 3.1% down from 3.3% on December 9. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on December 17, down from 3.3 percent on December 9. After recent

Held at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi from December 19 to December 22, this year’s event combines world-class tennis with live music, set to captivate millions of fans worldwide. The 2024 WTL boasts a roster of top-ranked athletes, including: Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Jasmine Paolini, Casper Ruud, Nick Kyrgios, Simona Halep, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Paula

Prior was -0.4% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -2.8%Avg price $4148 USD/MTWhole milk powder -2.9% This is the first decline after gains at the four prior auctions. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

US major indices are lower with the Dow down for the 9th consecutive day. The Nasdaq closed at a record level yesterday but with no help from Nvidia which is now in correction mode after falling more than 10% from its all-time high reached on November 21 at $157.89. The Nvidia price gapped lower at

Stoxx 600 -0.3%German DAX -0.3%France CAC +0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.6%Spain IBEX -1.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.1 It’s been a tougher stretch for European markets with most of the December gains erased in the STOXX 600 and the FTSE 100 back to November 22 levels. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD are trading lower and in the process testing key support targets. The video above goes through the technicals driving the pairs. Below are the key technical points outlined in the video for each pair. AUDUSD Technical Analysis:The AUDUSD is retesting a key support swing area on the daily chart

There’s not much appetite for traders to stray away from the prevailing price action to be honest. The euro remains on the softer side as the ECB reaffirms more rate cuts to follow next year. That sees traders pricing in ~89% odds of a rate cut for January for now. Meanwhile, the Fed is surely

The USDCAD is breaking to new session highs, moving further away from the mid-April 2020 high at 1.4265 and approaching the early April 2020 peak at 1.4348. Buyers have maintained control since the pair bottomed at 1.3423 during the week of September 21, rallying nearly 900 pips since then. Hourly Chart Analysis:Sellers had an opportunity

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index for December is all that’s listed on the data calendar here today. This index has shown improvements in recent months, reflecting a cautiously optimistic shift among Australian consumers. November 2024: Index Value: The index rose by 5.3% to 94.6 points, marking the highest level in two and a half

Stock Market Snapshot: A Tale of Diverging Fortunes in Tech and Communication The stock market today is a mixed bag, reflecting a complex landscape of gains and losses across sectors. While semiconductor stocks are grappling with substantial losses, communication services are shining amidst the volatility. 🔍 Sector Overview The semiconductor sector continues to face headwinds,

In an era where artificial intelligence is reshaping industries, Xterio is taking a bold step forward by partnering with Reka, a leading AI startup, to develop emotionally intelligent AI agents that promise to transform gaming, Web3, and beyond. These agents, powered by a proprietary emotion engine, are designed to interact, adapt, and evolve like human

Nomura Securities’ Global FX Strategy team forecasts a potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar in 2025, driven by two main factors: persistently high core inflation in the United States, which may hinder the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates, and the tariff policies of President-elect Trump, which could significantly influence economic conditions. The analysis

With Bitcoin going through the roof in 2024 and the entire crypto market showing substantial growth, retail investors’ interest in this asset class also peaked. But how best to profit from the changes occurring in the crypto market and what avenues of investment to choose? The experts at Octa, a broker with globally recognised licences,

Call it the Taylor Swift effect. CIBC highlights an unusual jump in concert and hotel prices in Canada in the November CPI report, assuredly due to the pop star’s tour through Canada in the month. Though they do wonder if the data could be lagged as the price bumps in Canada were less than seen

We will discuss neutral rate once we near 2.5%. The current policy rate is at 3.00%, so we have two more 25 bps cuts ahead before reaching that level. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

As the Nasdaq closes at a new record, the Dow has now fallen for 8 consecutive daysBOC’s Macklem:In the future the world is set to be more prone to shocks than we would likeCanada will name Dominic Leblanc as new finance ministerNew Zealand November median house price -0.5% MoMThis could finally be the end of

The DZY index is trading up 0.9% in early US trading with mixed results. Versus the major currencies: EUR up 0.12%JPY down -0.21%GBP down -0.17%CHF up 0.29%CAD up 0.37%AUD up 0.46%NZD of 0.40% Below is a technical look to kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. As the

Bank of America is out with its latest fund manager survey and it’s littered with red flags about a crowded stock market, particularly in US equities. This chart might stand out the most as it indicates that cash allocations are the lowest since January 2002. Combine that with IBKR’s Chairman highlighting that retail is over-leveraged,

Canada is in political turmoil but that’s hardly the driver of the latest leg lower in the Canadian dollar. If anything, odds are improving for a spring election and that’s something the market would smile on. Unfortunately, what’s weighing on the Canadian dollar won’t be easily fixed by an election. The housing market is struggling

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Prior €12.5 billion The narrowing trade surplus in the euro area is a bit of a worry. It is a spot to keep an eye out for as it could signal worsening trade developments in the region, particularly Germany, going into next year. Here’s the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

Japan economy minister Akazawa: BOJ to conduct appropriate monetary policyBoJ and government will work togetherBoJ should handle the specifics of monetary policy Akawaza with nods to Bank of Japan independence. The BOJ does not tend to display the same independence as perhaps pothr G3 and G7 central banks do (and some G20). The BoJ meet

Over the last 8 trading days: The Nasdaq index has seen a 2.40% gain. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Dow over the last 8 days has not had a positive day (down 8 straight days). The index is down around -2.98% from the high 8-days ago. That is the longest in more

The final piece of the Fed puzzle will be released today with the November retail sales report. This is a tricky one and it could disappoint because Thanksgiving and the Black Friday weekend were so late in November. Of course, that contrasts with a secular trend towards earlier Christmas shopping and discounting so the consensus

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

The main event in the European session was the UK employment report. The data was much better than expected, especially on the wage growth side, and the GBP got a boost from that. In terms of market pricing it shouldn’t change much as the BoE is widely expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged this

Prior was -0.3% (revised down to -0.4%)Capacity utilization 76.8% vs 77.3% expectedManufacturing output +0.2% vs +0.5% expectedPrior output -0.5% (revised to -0.7%) This is three months in a row of declining output. The long end is picking up and has released the earlier selloff. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.4%CPI MoM 0.0% versus 0.1% estimateCore CPI MoM 0.1% versus 0.4% last monthCPI YoY 1.9% versus 2.0% YoY est. Prior month 2.0%CPI Median 2.6% versus 2.4% estimate. Last month 2.5% revised higher to 2.6%CPI Trim 2.7% versus 2.5% estimate. Last month 2.6% revised higher to 2.7%CPI Common 2.0% versus 2.2% last monthCPI BOC

New Zealand to issue more debt in 2024/25 The New Zealand Debt Management Office (NZDMO) statement. increased its bond issuance plans for the 2024/25 fiscal year by NZ$2 billionplans to issue NZ$40 billion worth of bonds in 2024/25, compared with NZ$38 billion forecasted in the Budget update in May This article was written by Eamonn

Prior -91.4Economic sentiment 15.7 vs 6.5 expectedPrior 7.4 German economic sentiment continues to worsen in December with the reading being the worst since May 2020. The only bright spot is that the outlook index is showing some improvement but that’s a contrast to what the Ifo reading is saying. And I’d be more inclined to

NZ median home prices -0.5% in November – REINZAdjust median house price +0.2% YoY in November This is according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ). In other news from New Zealand, the minimum wage will increase by 1.5% from April 1. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It is rather puzzling when you try and quantify the move here with yields rising from 4.15% to 4.42% in just over a week. I mean, we’re still caught within the range seen after the US election for now. But as we move closer to 4.50%, the nerves might start to show up in broader

Prior 4.3%Employment change 173k vs 2k expectedPrior 219kAverage weekly earnings +5.2% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.3%; revised to +4.4%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.2% vs +5.0% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.8%; revised to +4.9%November payrolls change -35kPrior -5k; revised to 24k The jobless rate is seen holding steady in October while the November payrolls change shows a

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0525 level. It coincides with the 200-hour moving average currently, also seen at 1.0525. And that has been a key near-term level in terms of limiting price movement since last week. As such, it

This comes after the meeting among top Chinese officials last week, via its central economic work conference. The economic target will be the same as this year, which China is largely expected to hit after Xi boasted about it earlier this month. Meanwhile, China is said to be planning a record budget deficit of 4%

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. 0900/0400 Finland’s central bank and its chief, ECB policy maker Olli Rehn hold a press conference about monetary policy outlook and Finland’s economic forecast out of this list Rehn is most likely to have comments of note for traders 1000/0500 Introductory statement by ECB board member Claudia

BOC Macklem is speaking and says: In the future, the world is set to be more prone to shocks than we would all like.Big structural changes are already underway, such as deglobalization, demographic shifts, digitalization, and decarbonization.We need to work with our international partners to try and shape the future.We also need to improve our

Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index for December 2024 falls 2% m/m to 92.8. For the y/y its +13% Westpac note the disappointing economic growth numbers released in early December as a factor for the m/m fall. — Earlier was the weekly data: Australian weekly consumer confidence survey falls to a 9 week low AUD/USD not

We need to be prepared for situation where EU could be faced with higher tariffsShould have more information about US trade policy decisions by next ECB meeting In other words, meaning after the next two policy meetings in January and March. As things stand, markets are expecting them to cut by 25 bps each in

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% This continues the downside pressures from last week, as equities are not finding too much comfort in the run up to Christmas thus far. That said, tech shares were the exception with the Nasdaq rallying to a record high yesterday. However,

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.4% This largely continues the selling mood, even in Wall Street overnight. It continues to be a case of two tales at the moment as tech shares are dominating the scene, leaving behind everything else. The Dow ended with eight straight days of losses in Wall Street, while the

It’s a mess in Canadian politics at the moment. Today the government is going to attempt to present the Fall Economic Statement. It was supposed to be delivered by finance minister Chrystia Freeland but she quit this morning, delivering an unusually harsh resignation letter, in part due to a dispute with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

FX option expiries for 17 December 10am New York cutChina must give firm, forceful response to the US ‘blatant interference’ in TaiwanKey measure of CEO confidence in China signals pessimism for the first time since pandemicPressure on Canada PM Trudeau to resign intensifies after caucus meetingNew Zealand is assessing if Vanuatu earthquake tsunami could affect

The speed and scale of rate cuts will be determined in each meetingIt will depend on the basis of incoming data and comprehensive analysisInflation is more clearly starting to stabilise at the 2% target We didn’t get one of these so far today. So, this should fill the quota. There’s nothing new here from Rehn

7.4 is substantial 30 km WNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu Depth 28 km Awaiting any tsunami advice …OK, yep, tsunami warning issued ESMC map This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is down 0.4% today and erasing the advance from yesterday, moving back to test the August low of 0.6347. We’ve been here before with the low last week touching 0.6336 but ultimately, the daily and weekly close held. Will it be the same this time around? The pressure is definitely building. With China

Fundamental Overview Gold dropped back inside the previous range following some hotter than expected US inflation figures. In the bigger picture, the market’s pricing remains largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025 but the rise in real yields is weighing on the market due to stronger growth and stickier inflation expectations.

China Foreign Minister: We hope new US administration will make the ‘right’ choices and work with china, eliminating disruptions and overcoming obstaclesChina must give a firm and forceful response to the US ‘blatant interference’ in China’s internal affairs on issues such as Taiwan No sign of warm and cosy relations between the US and the

Greg had this posted earlier on Monday: Over the weekend WSJ TImiraos said that although “investors expect a third in a row rate cut”, that officials of the Fed are also ready to slow or even stop, lowering rates after that. Referring to this from the Wall Street Journal ‘Fed watcher’. Unusually, the article is

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) carry the report showing a key measure of CEO confidence in China has turned pessimistic for the first time since the pandemic. The loss of confidence comes despite recent stimulus measures being announced. Bloomberg reported on a survey by the US-based Conference Board: sentiment among executives of mostly American and European companies fell

Standard Chartered is bullish US equities next year. Their reasoning includes: Trump’s election victory has boosted U.S. business confidence, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and increased protectionism through tariffsprojects the US to outperform other major markets as business and consumer confidence rises under Trump’s administration Stan Chart note risks include Trump’s divisive policy

The pair has been quietly making waves since last week, as it continues the upside run upon breaking is 200-day moving average (blue line). The rally from 150.00 to just above 154.00 now also owes much to a surging rise in Treasury yields. 10-year yields have gone up from 4.15% to 4.40% during this period

Canadian political news, in the wake of the abrupt resignation of finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday. Via media report: Trudeau says he will take time to reflect on caucus concerns, sources say. At least seven Liberal MPs, including a former cabinet minister, publicly say Trudeau must resign. More at that

The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $70.71. That is down $0.58 or -0.81%. The high price reached 70 hours and $0.72. The low price was a $70.01 in what has been up and down trading today. The rising 100 hour moving average comes in at $69.94. It would take a move

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The NDP, which is the Liberal de-facto coalition partner, is calling on Justin Trudeau to resign. “He has to resign,” he said, noting that “all options are on the table” regarding withholding the votes the government needs to survive. He was repeatedly asked if they would bring down the government but kept saying “all options

THe NZDUSD has seen up and down and up again price action today. The most recent move higher has seen the pair extend back above the high of a swing area floor on the daily chart at 0.5772 and also briefly above the 100-hour MA at 0.5780. Buyers are trying to make a play BUT

The USDCAD has moved lower after failing to sustain a break higher earlier today. Technically, the pair briefly pushed above the April 19, 2020 high at 1.4264, reaching a session high of 1.4270, but momentum quickly faded. The price rotated back below last week’s high at 1.4244 (Friday) and extended to a corrective low of

Scaramucci is the founder of investment firm SkyBridge Capital and long-time crypto bull. In an interview on Friday he forecast Bitcoin to USD 200K by the end of next year. Citing: wave of crypto-friendly policies and deregulation expected under the incoming Trump administration“The factors related to that are not me being exuberant, it’s just supply

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence 83.9, a 9wk low fell 1.6pts from 85.5 (this was a 2.9 point fall from its previous week!) ANZ comment: despite the RBA signalling its comfort with the inflation outlook after its December meetingfall was driven by a 7.9pt fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ Deeply pessimistic

Canada’s Finance Dept is set to deliver the Fall Economic Statement today but with this morning’s resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, it wasn’t clear who would deliver it. Now Radio-Canada reports that Dominic Leblanc, who is also the Minister of Public Safety, will take the job. That’s a strong sign that Trudeau doesn’t intend

Canada fiscal update Canada fiscal update sees 2023/24 deficit of C$61.9 billion vs C$40 billion expected in April, breaching fiscal anchor of maintaining 2023/24 deficit at or below $40.1 billion.Canada update: Projected 2023/24 deficit includes Indigenous contingent liabilities of C$16.4 billion and adjustments for COVID-19-related support.Canada update sees 2024/25 deficit of C$48.3 billion, 1.6% of

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) +14.7% m/m in November 2024 expected +8.0%, prior -7.5% +3.4% y/y expected -1.7%, prior -4.7% Recent Performance: September 2024: NODX increased by 2.7% year-on-year, supported by growth in both electronic and non-electronic products. This was a slowdown from the 10.7% rise in August and below the anticipated 9.3% increase. On

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD are both trading higher on the day, with GBP/USD outperforming. The GBP/USD is currently up by 0.52%, trading at 1.2618 after testing a low of 1.2615 earlier. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is up by just 0.05%, recovering from its low of 1.0475 and currently trading at 1.0510. GBP/USD Analysis The GBP/USD has

There is one thing that everyone can agree on: China is cheap, at least the stock market is. But it’s cheap for a reason, economic growth is struggling and the market has lost faith in Beijing to offer the kind of stimulus that made it an economic miracle. That said, the biggest rallies often begin

Domestic sight deposits CHF 448.2 bn vs CHF 450.5 bn prior There was a slight drop in Swiss sight deposits in the past week but nothing out of the ordinary as the levels are holding as seen in recent months. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Food Price Index for November 2024 is -0.1% prior was -0.9% The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealandthe FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items

ECBs Wunsche is on the wires saying: There is a relative consensus that rates need to go close to the neutral levelComforable with market easing expectations. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Will stabilise market expectationWill enhance stability of credit growthTo utilise a variety of monetary policy tools, cut interest rates and RRR when appropriateWill promote internationalisation of yuan in a prudent manner These are all just some token remarks. The main development in the Chinese yuan was the story from last week here. This article was

We should proceed with caution and remain data dependent.Price stability is within reach.Lowering policy rates gradually towards a neutral level is the most appropriate course of action.Once price stability has been restored, central banks can afford to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target, in both directionsIn the absence of such shocks, policy should be

Ford Stock Update: Key Highlights and Analyst Outlook for Investors Jefferies Downgrades Ford Stock to Underperform, Predicting Challenges in 2025 Ford stock faced a fresh downgrade today as Jefferies shifted its rating from Hold to Underperform and slashed its price target from $12 to $9. Analysts predict that 2025 will bring additional challenges for Ford

Bitcoin rises to get another new record. The high price has reached $107,144. It’s currently up around $2700 or 2.57%.Michael Saylor of Microstrategy is on CNBC pushing his Bitcoin strategy and projections (which quite frankly is beyond me) but let it be. He does parellel buying bitcoin to buying the island of Manhattan for $40M

The major European indices are closing mostly lower a snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX -0.45%France’s CAC -0.71%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.46%Spain’s Ibex +0.23%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.43% Looking at the 10 year yields in the European markets: Germany, +0.7 basis points at 2.245%France -0.7 basis points at 3.044%UK +0.9 basis points or 4.443%Spain +1.5

Election is likely to occur on February 23, 2025. Polls have CDU in the lead. Scholz’s SPD party hopes to use the time to change the sentiment. The vote passed 394-207 with 116 abstentions Impact on Europe: Deepens a leadership crisis amid ongoing economic and security challenges.Key issues include:The war in Ukraine and tensions with

AI Pice Prediction Score for Gold Futures: +2 (Slightly Bullish). Gold futures price at time of prediction by AI 2678.7 Key Observations From the 240-Minute Chart: VWAP Alignment and Price Position: Today’s VWAP at 2672.7 aligns very closely with the previously naked VAL from December 9th (2672.4), reinforcing its role as strong support.The current price

As the North American session begins, the US futures for the US stock indices are trading higher after a mixed result last week. US yields are starting lower by about 2 to 3 basis points after 10 year yields moved up by 25 basis points last week. The USD is mixed to start the new

Prior 49.5Manufacturing PMI 45.2 vs 45.3 expectedPrior 45.2Composite PMI 49.5 vs 48.2 expectedPrior 48.3 It’s a contrasting picture again for the overall Eurozone economy, as the services sector is seen expanding once more while manufacturing continues to contract. On the latter, the main reading is unchanged to November but the output index is seen down

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 24 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB 2025: 111 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 4 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 73 bps BoC 2025: 56 bps (63% probability of rate

Prior +0.9%HICP +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelimPrior +1.0% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation did increase from 1.8% in October to 1.9% in November but compared to other major economies in the region, this is still on the lower side. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

2024 has been a year of contradictory events, significant economic changes, and major political shifts. On a positive note, it was the year when global central banks finally managed to tackle inflation, partly induced by the negative and far-reaching effects of the COVID pandemic and partly by the more recent geopolitical events. After holding borrowing

Well, that’s the answer we will be getting today. But whatever the case is, it won’t be anything too pretty. And whatever the numbers are, another 25 bps rate cut by the ECB in January is pretty much confirmed. The euro is sitting marginally higher today but is still pinned down by some key near-term

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The USDCAD is pushing higher, testing levels not seen since April 2020 at 1.4264. A break above this key resistance would open the door to the next target near the March 8, 2020 high at 1.4348. Since late September, the USDCAD has been trending steadily upward, starting from around 1.3425—a significant move that reinforces the

Will help ensure emerging technology will be developed in the USMasayoshi Son and Softbank Group to invest $100B in the US over 4-yearsConfidence level in the US is high The US stocks are showing gains with the S&P and the Nasdaq leading the way: Dow up 7.57 points or 0.02%S&P up 25.50 points or 0.43%

Prior 46.9Manufacturing PMI 41.9 vs 43.0 expectedPrior 43.1Composite PMI 46.7 vs 45.9 expectedPrior 45.9 It is a contrast as the services sector performed better than expected but the manufacturing sector was worse. That said, both remain in contraction territory and reaffirms a drop in overall business activity. Of note, the pace of decline in the

📈 Technology and Consumer Sectors Surge Today’s stock market showcases a striking performance in the tech sector, with significant gains led by Google (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN). This upbeat momentum is reflected across several market segments as investors respond positively to the latest industry developments. Technology Sector: 🚀 Tech Giants Lead the Charge Google (GOOGL):

Stanford University’s Future of Digital Currency Initiative (FDCI) and Eliza Labs, creators of the open-source Eliza agent framework, today announced a groundbreaking research partnership to explore how autonomous AI agents will transform digital currency systems. The collaboration, set to begin in Q1 2025, brings together Stanford’s expertise in digital currency research with Eliza Labs’ cutting-edge

Australia Judo Bank / S&P Global data. For December 2024. Preliminary / Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 November was 49.4December’s 48.2 is a 2- month low. Flash / Preliminary Services PMI 50.4, a 5-month low November was 50.5). Flash / Preliminary Australia PMI Composite, 3-month low November was 50.2, 3-month low In brief, the main

In a celebration of innovation, Forbes Web3 proudly showcases the community members who hold the Forbes Legacy Pass in its December 2024/January 2025 issue. The Forbes Legacy Pass is more than a membership- it’s a transformative experience bringing together a cohort of global entrepreneurs, founders, and creators. It grants members exclusive access to global Forbes

Prior was 56.1Composite PMI rises to 56.6 vs 54.9 prior (33-month high)Services PMI jumps to 58.5 vs 56.1 prior (38-month high)Manufacturing PMI falls to 48.3 vs 49.7 prior (3-month low) On inflation: Overall price pressures cooled furtherbut manufacturing saw a spike in input costs to 2-year highsService sector inflation at 4.5 year lowSupplier delivery times

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned. She was once thought of as the future of the party but she’s tied herself too closely to Trudeau, who has now evidently cut her loose in an attempt to save his political life. The Liberals are evidently trying to get Mark Carney to come

Prior was +31.2 This is quite a drop from 31.2 but that’s looking like it was a big outlier, perhaps related to the election. The good news for the Fed here is that pricing indications are declining the bad news is that new orders are at a six-month low. Another notable rise is in inventories,

Summary 📉 AUD/USD Support and Resistance Levels: The AUDUSD pair retested key support levels between 0.6334 and 0.6363 last week and bounced. Today, the price returned to that area on the daily chart. If the price can break below the low of that swing area, it opens the door for more selling with 0.62698 to

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are relatively large ones and are all for EUR/USD layered through 1.0500 to 1.0550. Similar to what we saw at the end of last week, the ones at the figure level are likely to help keep things anchored

The Chinese data due Monday will be of the most focus. The ‘economic activity’ data include key indicators retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment. We get the November numbers today at 0200 GMT, which is 2100 US Eastern time (Sunday evening). In October 2024, China’s key economic indicators presented a mixed picture: Retail

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.1% S&P 500 futures are flat, so there’s not too much to work with as we look to start the session. All eyes will be on the PMI data coming up later to see what that has to offer to start the week. Otherwise, it’ll

Oil Price Prediction Score: -3 (Moderately Bearish) Key Observations From the 240-Minute Chart (Crude Oil Futures): Oil Price Below Key Levels: The current oil price at $70.43 is trading below:Today’s Value Area Low (VAL) at $70.60.Friday’s VAL at $70.57.Thursday’s POC at $70.40.Oil prices below these key levels suggest sellers remain in control, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin Price Prediction for Bitcoin Futures (December 2024 Contract) Prediction Score: -2 (Slightly Bearish with Caution) Key Observations From the 240-Minute Chart: Bitcoin Price Rejected at Key Resistance Levels: The current Bitcoin price at $104,330 failed to hold above the previously naked POC at $104,500 and the VAH at $104,790 (both from 7 days ago).This

The past bias of keeping rates sufficiently restrictive is no longer warrantedWe are close to achieving our targetInflation momentum in services sector has dropped recentlyEurozone growth likely to take a hit from fresh US protectionist measures This just continues the same commentary after their policy meeting last week. With traders already pricing in ~93% of

Services PMI 51.4 vs 51.0 expected and 50.8 prior.Manufacturing PMI 47.3 vs 48.2 expected and 48.0 prior.Composite PMI 50.5 vs 50.7 expected and 50.5 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) : 50.5 (Nov: 50.5). Unchanged. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index (2) : 51.4 (Nov: 50.4). 2-month high. Flash UK Manufacturing

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not too much change since late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0496USD/JPY 153.66GBP/USD 1.2616USD/CHF 0.8927USD/CAD 1.4234AUD/USD 0.6364NZD/USD 0.5763 This article was written by

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury yields

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturing PMI 42.5 vs 43.1 expected and 43.0 prior.Services PMI 51.0 vs 49.3 expected and 49.3 prior.Composite PMI 47.8 vs 47.5 expected and 47.2 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 47.8 (Nov: 47.2). 2-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.0 (Nov: 49.3). 2-month high. HCOB

A gradual, step-by-step approach through 25 bps rate reductions is the most prudent strategyA more aggressive monetary easing would require a dramatic shift in conditions to justify itEurope’s economic malaise is largely structural and demands solutions that extend beyond the remit of monetary policy It’s been a while since they took a jab at lawmakers

Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index October 2024: +0.3%m/m (vs. exp -0.1%, prior -0.2%)European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Monday, de Guindos and Schnabel tooReturn of the Mack – BOC Governor Macklem speaking on MondayProperty investment in China fell 10.4% y/y in the first eleven months of 2024China’s stats bureau says domestic demand remains insufficientChina November:

Summary of RBA Board Changes New Appointments: Marnie Baker, CEO of Bendigo Bank, and Renee Fry-McKibbin, ANU economics professor, have been appointed to the Reserve Bank’s new monetary board for five-year terms starting in March 2025. Restructured RBA Board: The RBA will split into two boards:Monetary Board: Controls interest rates.Governance Board: Manages central bank operations.Existing

Home starts from the CMHC: October starts revised to 242.2KNovember starts 262.4K There is some variance in these numbers and the six-month average is flat at 243K. The pipeline in Canadian home construction near Toronto is drying up but Montreal starts were up 22% and are up 143% y/y. This article was written by Adam

Today is the Flash PMIs Day for Eurozone, UK and US. The market’s pricing might not change much but they will still be market moving releases. Here are the expectations: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 expected vs. 45.2 prior.Eurozone Services PMI: 49.5 expected vs. 49.5 prior.UK Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 expected vs. 48.0 prior.UK Services PMI: 51.0

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: Major central banks the main focus in the week aheadWeekly update on interest rate expectationsFrance December flash services PMI 48.2 vs 46.7 expectedGermany December flash manufacturing PMI 42.5 vs 43.1 expectedEurozone December flash services PMI 51.4 vs 49.5 expectedUK December flash services PMI 51.4 vs 51.0 expectedECB’s Lagarde: We can cut rates further if

China House Prices in November -5.7% y/y (prior -5.9%)-0.1% m/m (prior -0.5%) The black hole of Chinese home prices has not yet ended. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As major cryptocurrencies like Solana and Toncoin hit a pause, the spotlight turns to an emerging player in the digital asset space. Cybro is set to make its debut on the exchange, generating buzz with staggering projections. This unexpected contender is capturing the attention of investors keen to uncover the potential behind this dramatic forecast.

2045 GMT / 1545 Eastern time: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will address businesses at Greater Canada Board of Trade in Vancouver “Macklem will look back at the progress made bringing inflation back to target, and ahead to new challenges on the horizon.” Given the deep cuts to the overnight rate in Canada perhaps

The rise since the US election extends further. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD did nudge a little higher to 1.2670 after the UK PMI data here earlier. But the pair is now back down to 1.2645, up just 0.2% on the day. Elsewhere, USD/CHF is down 0.2% to 0.8910 but the euro, yen, loonie, and aussie are all flat against the dollar currently. Even after the French

Japan’s core machinery orders for October 2024 have jumped back after a slowing trend in recent months (see notes below). *** Japan’s core machinery orders, a key indicator of capital spending, have shown a declining trend in recent months: July 2024: Orders unexpectedly fell by 0.1% month-on-month, contrary to economists’ expectations of a 0.5% increase.

Robert Holzmann is Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member. He spoke on Friday, basking in the glory of Thursday’s ECB rate cut: ECB’s Holzmann: Yesterday’s decision was good He spoke later on the same day, taking a hard stance: “It isn’t the job of the ECB to boost

Tertiary Industry Activity Index for October 2024: +0.3% m/m expected -0.1%, prior -0.2% This adds to generally improving data we have had earlier in the session (link to these are near the bottom of this post). *** Recent results: September 2024: The index slightly decreased to 102.3, a 0.2% decline from August’s 102.5. August 2024:

Data via property website Rightmove in the UK Average asking prices for newly listed houses and apartments fell by 1.7% in December m/m+1.4% y/y The report does note though that activity was robust for the time of year as movers aimed to complete sales before property purchase taxes rise in April: The stamp duty changes

A new cryptocurrency priced at just six cents is attracting significant attention from early investors. They believe it has the potential to outperform Ethereum’s remarkable rise after its initial listing. This digital token is stirring excitement in the crypto world, sparking discussions about its potential impact. Could this affordable crypto be the next major breakthrough

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury yields

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0700/0200 ECB President Christine Lagarde holds short press conference with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania in Vilnius, Lithuania0815/0315 ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at Annual Economics Conference: Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts on the occasion of 10th anniversary

Our confidence that inflation will converge to target in 2025 is reflected in our policy This continues to reaffirm that the ECB is going to stick with another 25 bps rate cut in January next month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This trading week might just be a case of “let’s get this over and done with, shall we?” in markets. Everyone knows what is almost certainly going to happen but it is a case of waiting the main events out and getting a glimpse of what these central banks will do going into next year.

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

NZIER is the new Zealand Institute of Economic Research. The NZIER Consensus Forecasts are an average of New Zealand economic forecasts compiled from a survey of financial and economic agencies. These are not NZIER’s forecasts. Link here for more. As part of the most recent set of forecasts is this for the New Zealand dollar:

Key Chinese economic data for November 2024 … in so far as retail sales is indicative of domestic demand the data … well, sucks. China Retail Sales in November +3.0% y/y expected +4.6%, prior +4.8% Industrial Production +5.4% y/y, improving from October … attributed to stimulus measures … but given borderline CPI deflation and lacklustre

The data is here: China November: Retail sales +3.0% y/y (exp +4.6%) Industrial output +5.4% y/y (exp +5.3%) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) comments: Positive changes in China’s economy further increasedExternal environment has become more complexDomestic demand remains insufficientSome enterprises face operational difficultiesThe foundation for sustained economic recovery and improvement still needs to be strengthenedTrend

UK manufacturers have reported the sharpest loss of confidence since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Make UK survey. Confidence Drop: British manufacturers’ confidence fell sharply to 5.8 in Q4 2024 (from 6.8 in Q3), the steepest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.Manufacturing Forecast:2024: Manufacturing output expected to shrink by 0.2% (previously forecasted +0.5%).2025:

Manufacturing now in contraction for 6 straight months. Flash Manufacturing December: 49.4 November Final 49.2 Services: 51.4 November Final 50.5 Composite: 50.8 … Strongest rise in private sector activity for three months November Final 50.1 In summary from today’s report: Overall Business Activity: Private sector activity expanded marginally, the fastest pace since September.Growth driven by

The case appears to be building for the Bank of Japan to remain on hold at its meeting next week: BOJ reportedly sees little cost to waiting for next rate hikeBOJ reportedly erring towards keeping interest rates unchanged next week (The leaks keep on coming)Goldman Sachs expect the Bank of Japan to remain on hold

The headline economic activity data for November is here: China November: Retail sales +3.0% y/y (exp +4.6%) Industrial output +5.4% y/y (exp +5.3%) More now, focus on the property sector, info via Reuters reporting: Property investment in China fell 10.4% in the first eleven months of 2024 from a year earlier the fall was 10.3%

Australian Treasurer to announce new Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members: to the governance and rate-setting boards at 11 am Sydney time (0000 GMT & 1900 US Eastern time) Chalmers is overseeing reforms to the RBA, which include splitting the RBA board in two. One group will focus on monetary policy and the other

New Zealand Performance Service Index showed contraction at a slower rate during November, coming in at 49.5 from October’s 46.2. November result the highest since February 2024the two key sub-indices of Activity/Sales and New Orders/Business are at their highest level of activity since February also BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: the November result is another

A Global Perspective on Economic Shifts and Israel’s Strategic Position The recent podcast hosted by Liron Rose, featuring Prof. Leo Leiderman, provided a rich discussion on the state of global economies, the evolving role of the U.S. under nationalist policies, and Israel’s unique economic and geopolitical position. For international investors, the detailed reasoning shared offers

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs.Tuesday: UK Employment report, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, US NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday: UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, FOMC Policy Decision, New Zealand Q3 GDP.Thursday: BoJ Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Final

Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, continues to reinforce its commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance. In response to evolving regulations, Bybit has made the difficult but necessary decision to temporarily adjust the availability of its products and services within the European Economic Area (EEA). Paving the Way with MiCAR Compliance Bybit

Pres. elect Trump and his Doge team is reportedly looking to eliminate daylight savings time. So there would no longer be a “spring forward” in the 2nd Sunday of March and ending in November. Musk and Ramaswamy have said the U.S. should stop changing its clocks twice a year, calling it inefficient and annoying for

What are the technical levels in play for the major currency pairs vs the USD? EURUSD: USDJPY: GBPUSD: USDCHF: USDCAD: AUDUSD: NZDUSD: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices are ending the session with mixed results. The Dow industrial average is marginally lower. The S&P is near unchanged. The NASDAQ index is marginally higher. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average fell -86.06 points or -0.20% at 43828.06. The NASDAQ closed lower for the 7th consecutive day

US yields are trading at fresh highs, with the 10-year yield up 7.0 basis points today to 4.395%. This marks a 24-basis-point gain for the week, the largest 1-week jump since mid-January 2024. The rising yields have fueled a strong rally in the USDJPY, which continues to track higher. Key Technical Levels and Price Action

The problem with trying to stop chip restrictions to China is that it’s easy enough for people in other countries to buy them, mark up the prices and then re-sell them to China. That might be ‘illegal’ but with the stakes so high, it’s a loophole that will be infinitely exploited. We’ve seen the same

The Mexican peso is showing far more patience with Trump’s election the second time around. Perhaps that’s because Trump’s rhetoric the first time didn’t result in any big changes, or perhaps it’s because Mexico has already pledged to work on the border and drugs. There is certainly a future where Mexico retains privileged access to

The EURUSD is ending the week lower after an up-and-down path to the downside. The move to the downside fell below a cluster of MAs with the 200 hour MA being the one that has put a lid on the pair on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and again on Friday. That ceiling increases the 200 hour

Major US indices close mixed. Dow lower for 7th day in a row. S&P unchanged. Nasdaq higherPres.elect Trump is out to end the daylight saving timeUS prepares new AI chip restrictions to other countries to box out China – reportS&P affirms Mexico’s credit ratingsLooking at long-dated bonds…European equity close: A finish on the lows of

GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Sellers Regain Control The GBPUSD started the week in a choppy trading range, with buyers repeatedly testing the 200-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart. Over the first four days (and last Friday), the price briefly moved above this MA multiple times, but each attempt quickly failed. On Thursday, buyers gave

US 30-year bonds have had a worrisome week. They’ve risen for five straight days in a climb to 4.61% from 4.31% and that’s coming at the same time as Chinese debt heads in the other direction. Now some of that could be seasonal quirks and we’re still within the post-election range. I worry about that

A significant reduction in rates is still necessary.Neutral rate is closer to 2% than 3%.The direction of interest rates is clearly down.It’s right to go step by step on rates.A bigger rate cut is possible if required. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, MUFG Research sold the loonie and this week they continue to like that trade. MUFG maintains a long USD/CAD in its ToTW portfolio targeting a move towards 1.4550, and a stop at 1.3850. “We are maintaining our long USD/CAD trade idea. The pair has continued to move higher over the past week rising

Closing changes in Europe on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -0.1%France CAC -0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB flat On the week: Stoxx 600 -0.8%German DAX flatFrance CAC -0.3%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX -2.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Nullpoint Technologies, a renowned provider of premium CRM and IB management solutions for brokers, has announced an exciting new integration with Brokeree Solutions’ flagship offerings, Social Trading and PAMM. These cutting-edge investment systems are designed to help multi-asset brokers increase trading volumes and attract diverse audiences. Through this collaboration, Nullpoint clients gain streamlined access to

The NZDUSD is trading at a new 2024 low today, reaching 0.5753, positioning the price near the midpoint of key swing lows from November 2022 and end of October 2023: 0.5739 (November 2022 low)0.5772 (October 2023 low) A break below this support area would strengthen the bearish bias, encouraging traders to probe lower levels. Conversely,

Earlier today, Macron named Francis Bayrou as President in a move that he hopes will allow the country to find some middle ground on a budget. “Everyone appreciates the difficulty of the task and I think also that everyone thinks there is a path to be found that unites rather than divides people,” Bayrou told

Will deepen exchange rate market-orientated reform next yearTo strengthen exchange rate expectation managementWill vigorously respond to external shocks These are just token remarks as they are meant to come out to say something in addition to all the policy and macro remarks following the central economic work conference this week. This article was written by

Rate cuts are to continue should baseline projections holdThe idea that prevailed yesterday was to keep at it with 25 bps rate cutsEuropean economy’s lack of dynamism is a challenge This just echoes all the remarks from his peers from earlier today. Escrivá is fairly new to the scene as he was just recently appointed

The major US indices have reversed earlier gains and are all trading lower. For the trading week, the indices are also dipping into the red. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average -28 point 96 points or -0.07% at 43886.72. For the trading week index is down -1.67%S&P index is down -9.38

After the numerous “leaks” from earlier in the week, this pretty much seals the deal. The Japanese yen had already been softening in the past few days and this further vindicates that. USD/JPY is at the highs for the day, up 0.6% to 153.63 currently. From earlier this week: BOJ reportedly sees little cost to

Rep. French Hill was voted into the chairman to lead the House Financial Services Committee Hill is described as ‘crypto-friendly’ *** The Financial Services Committee provides oversight of the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, and cryptocurrency This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Temporary ups and downs on inflation are inevitable.There was consensus at ECB’s Governing Council.The period of strong inflation is behind us. I want to see inflation around 2%.Markets see another 100 bps of rate cuts.Rates are still relatively high given the economy.Rates are still holding back the economy a little bit.Return to zero rates is

Major US stock indices are closing near the lows for the day. Recall from yesterday, the NASDAQ index closed at a new record high. The S&P index traded above its all-time close but ended the day below that level. Today both indices moved away from those record levels Dow industrial average fell -234.44 points or

EUR/USD: The current price is at 1.0492 1.0375 – 2.6 billion1.0400 – 5.2 billion1.0420-25 – 1.9 billion1.0450 -60 – 2.7 billion1.0470-65 – 1.5 billion1.0500 – 7.6 billion – the price is near this level1.0520 -25 – 1.8 billion1.0535 – 1 billion1.0550 – 2.7 billion1.0570-80 – 1 billion USD/CAD: The current price is at 1.4225 1.4225

Fresh supply weighed on bonds this week, pushing up Treasury yields. The latest leg came after a soft 30-year auction yesterday but attention may also be turning to politics. Trump this week touted a corporate tax cut but what’s far from clear is how it will be paid for. Tariffs continue to be on the

The pace and number of further rate cuts will depend on inflation developments I want to say that his comments are a bit incomplete for now as the ECB has clearly put more emphasis on the economy in their last two rate cuts, as opposed to the inflation story. But they can be happy that

All the main China equity indexes and their proxies fell by 2% today as hopes for a big stimulus package were delayed. The charts of all the main markets — including the Shanghai Comp shown here — outline an ominous series of lower highs, though the consolidation continues. Rate cuts are likely coming and that

The USDCAD moved higher today, extending to a new 4+ year high of 1.4243, surpassing levels last seen in April 2020. The next key target is 1.4264, the high from April 2020. A break above this level could pave the way for further upside momentum. Why Multi-Year Highs Matter When an asset trades at multi-year

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD and layered between 1.0450 through to 1.0500. The big one of course is the over €7 billion in expiries at the 1.0500 level. That might offer some pull factor for EUR/USD in the session ahead

Prior was +0.5%Core wholesale sales (ex-petroleum/grain) up 1.0% to C$83.7BVolume terms: +0.4%Year-over-year: +1.7% Highlights: Motor vehicle sector leads gains: +3.2% to C$14.8BBuilding materials: +2.8% to C$12.0BAgricultural supplies drop: -9.8% to C$3.1B Inventory Picture: Total inventories unchanged at C$128.6BInventory-to-sales ratio improved to 1.54 from 1.55Building materials inventories +1.5% This article was written by Adam Button at

Declining services inflation strengthened the confidence in return to target.ECB will decide monetary policy meeting by meeting on the basis of current situation, core inflation and policy transmission.Inflation is steadily approaching the target.Services inflation remains high, but in recent months it has been steadily moderating which was partly due to lower wage growth. Monthly data

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting, in brief: Trump team has started to explore pathways to dramatically shrink, consolidate or even eliminate the top bank watchdogs in Washingtoncould abolish the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., people familiar with the matter saidas well as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, if deposit insurance could then be

UK GDP came in weaker than expected -0.1% for the month versus +0.1% estimate. Construction output, industrial production, manufacturing production was also weaker and the trade balance had a larger deficit. The declines sent the GBP lower but buyers came in near technical support targets and the price has since rebounded off lows. The EURUSD

Wells Fargo is dialling back the dovishness in the wake of solid inflation reports out of the US on Wednesday and Thursday. Before I get to Wells Fargo, check out this clear-eyed view of inflation developments in the US: I posted yesterday similar, but thought it was just me: PPI data higher too: US November

📈 Semiconductor Sector: A Remarkable Surge Today’s market spotlight shines on the semiconductor sector, demonstrating significant gains. Leading the charge is Broadcom (AVGO), skyrocketing by an impressive 17.30%, followed by Micron Technology (MU) rising 2.10% and Nvidia (NVDA) with a 1.40% increase. These gains reflect strong investor confidence in the sector’s future potential, possibly driven

The ‘sources’ headlines continue to do the rounds. Cuts at the next two meetings are already priced in, along with a 30% chance that one of those is a 50 bps cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD remains under seller control, but a critical support zone between 0.6334 and 0.6363 is currently being tested. This area has acted as a significant floor on the daily chart since November 2023. Recent Price Action Earlier this week, the price stalled at 0.6336, just above the lower boundary of the swing area opn

BNP Paribas are forecasting EUR/USD to parity in 2025 project further monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bankforecasts five ECB rate cuts in the current cycleforecasts only one more interest rate reduction from the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) We should have a caption contest This article was

The buyers had their chances to push higher, but momentum failed to materialize. Over the past five trading days, the price moved above the falling 200-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart during four sessions. On the fifth day, the high for the session stalled precisely at the same MA. Notably, the last time

Posted earlier: Trump trade adviser Navarro warns on FX manipulation *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

China’s central bank is surveying some banks on their activities in the bond market, according to Reuters sources. It’s not clear why they were looking into activities but Chinese yields have plunged recently and 10s yield just 0.258%. The PBOC has warned of bubble risks. That’s running against a central bank that touted a shift

ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in December monetary policy decision, as expectedECB cuts 2024 HICP forecast to 2.4% from 2.5%, growth outlook remains sluggishLagarde: Growth is losing momentumLagarde Q&A: There were some discussions around considering 50 bpsECB sources: Handful of policymakers were initially in favor of 50 bps cutECB prepared for 25 bps

1100 GMT / 0600 US Eastern time ECB governing council member and Portugal central bank governor Mario Centeno to present Bank of Portugal’s economic bulletin The European Central Bank cut rates yesterday, with plenty more cuts expected next year. Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points EUR expected to dribble

Prior +7.5%New yuan loans ¥0.6 trillionPrior ¥0.5 trillion The year-to-date total for new yuan loans is now seen at ¥17.1 trillion and barring an unprecedented surge in December, it will fall far short of the 2023 record of roughly ¥22.8 trillion. For some context, this figure was ¥21.3 trillion back in 2022. It’s not too

German economy to shrink by 0.2% this year, grow by 0.2% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026German economy to stagnate in winter half-year, to make a slow recovery over the course of 2025Trump tariffs could lower German economic growth by 1.3% to 1.4% through to 2027 They see trade protectionism as the biggest threat and

Yesterday: Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration next month The headlines on this were greeted with hails of improving relations between the US and China. Seriously. I wasn’t impressed with such analysis: That’s a long bow to draw on an invitation, but there you go. Anyway, Xi says No. Via

Prior month import prices +0.3% revised to 0.1%Prior month export prices +0.8% revised to 1.0%Import prices YoY 1.3% vs 0.6% last month (revised from 0.8%). Largest since JulyImport prices MoM 0.1% vs -0.2% estimateExport prices MoM 0.0% vs -0.2% estimate Imports details: Fuel Imports: Prices increased 1.0% in November (after a 0.8% decline in October).Higher

The greenback is sitting up against the yen and pound but holding lower against the euro so far today. This comes as stocks are looking to bounce back with US futures up 0.3% but Treasury yields are lightly changed though. So, there is definitely some mixed sentiment in there. Looking at USD/JPY first, the pair

Prior was 1.3%Manufacturing sales rose 2.1% to C$70.8B in October, rebounding from two straight monthly declinesIn volume terms: Sales up 1.4%Year-over-year: Down 0.2%Petroleum and coal products led gains, surging 15.9%Transportation equipment sales increased 3.7%Motor vehicle sales hit highest level since April 2024Paper sales dropped 3.5%, biggest decline among sectors Other details: Inventory-to-sales ratio improved to

Headlines: Dollar keeps more mixed on the session so farBOJ reportedly considers skipping rate hike at next week’s policy meetingECB’s Muller: Temporary ups and downs on inflation are inevitableECB’s Villeroy: More rate cuts are to comeECB’s Kazaks: A significant reduction in rates is still necessaryECB’s Escrivá: It is logical to have further rate cuts in

Prior +1.2%HICP +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelimPrior +1.6% No change to the initial estimates with core annual inflation seen inching a little higher to 1.7% on the month, up from 1.6% in October. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic Group) Hunter, speech is here: Shedding Light on Uncertainty: Using Scenarios in Forecasting and Policy I am going to talk about how the RBA uses scenarios – that is, alternative possible pathways for the economy to help us think through the outlook for the economy and set monetary

Gradualism is the most important word for policy at the momentThe level of interest rates in the euro area continues to be restrictiveWill cuts rates until close to 2% in coming quarters if there are no other shocks This just adds to the barrage of remarks from his peers, echoing the same sentiment throughout the

UK consumer confidence touches 4-month high in December, GfK survey. Comes in at -17, highest reading since August prior -18expected -18 GfK comments: consumers still uncertain about making big-ticket purchasesconsumers’ relatively weak confidence about the overall economy compared to their own finances “We will need to see robust improvements in these perceptions of the economy

BNP Paribas says market analysts are misguided – say take Trump tariff policies seriouslyFrench president Macron is planning to visit China in the new yearRBA’s Hunter does not comment on current state of, outlook for, economy or policyChina’s retaliation against Trump trade sanctions has begun alreadyCrypto-friendly French Hill is new chair of the U.S. House

In the fast-paced world of digital currencies, a select few are showing remarkable potential. As the holiday season nears, these five cryptocurrencies might offer extraordinary returns on a modest investment. This article explores the digital assets that could transform $500 into a substantial fortune by Christmas Eve. CYBRO to List Ahead of Schedule Following 450%

Prior +0.4%Wholesale price index -0.6% y/yPrior -0.8% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Today the main event was the UK GDP report. The data missed expectations and weighed on the GBP as the market might increase the probabilities for more rate cuts in 2025. Looking ahead there’s nothing notable but given the sensitivity to inflation, the US import prices might be a market moving release given that there’s

Prior -2.0%; revised to -1.5% The breakdown for the month shows a decline in the production for energy (-1.9%), durable consumer goods (-1.8%), and non-durable consumer goods (-2.3%). That was offset by a rise in production for capital goods (+1.7%). Meanwhile, the production for intermediate goods was flat on the month. This article was written

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report on Wednesday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week. That helped the Russell 2000 as the hedges into a potentially hot CPI got unwound. The gains though were short lived. The US PPI yesterday surprised to the upside and weighed on the sentiment

Prior -0.1%Services 0.0% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior 0.0%Industrial production -0.6% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior -0.5%Manufacturing output -0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -1.0%Construction output -0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior +0.1% UK GDP misses on estimates to start Q4 with the services sector stagnating in October and industrial activity all underwhelmed. It’s another sign that more sluggish

Prior €17.0 billion The German trade surplus shrunk slightly to start Q4 as exports fell by 2.8% while imports were seen only dropping by 0.1% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

More rate cuts are to come.I’m more confident that the ECB will bring inflation to 2%.I’m at ease with market rate expectations for next year.ECB rates remain significantly above neutral. ECB has margin for interest rate cuts.France must reform its public finances.Uncertainty is the biggest enemy of economic growth. This article was written by Giuseppe

This as announced by Tokyo governor, Yuriko Koike, earlier this week as she emphasises on the importance of a flexible working environment. She noted that this will help allow more flexibility to women as they will not have to sacrifice their careers due to life events such as childbirth and/or raising children. Currently, Tokyo’s working

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are a little higher now, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.2%. But it is still early in the day and the selling in Wall Street yesterday is leaving some room for caution, even if it did come after

Jeremy Siegel is a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Siegel was in the (financial) news in August calling for an emergency 75 Federal Reserve (FOMC) rate cut. About that 75 basis point emergency cut He spoke with CNBC on Thursday in an interview: “I don’t think 2025, as good as everyone

Fundamental Overview Gold failed to extend the rally above the resistance zone around the 2723 level and pulled back as we got a technical break, and the US PPI came in higher than expected. In the bigger picture, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025 but the

The US treasury auctioned off $22B of 30 year bonds. The folllowing are the results along with the resuilts of the major components compared to the 6 month averages: High yield 4.535%WI level at the time of the auction 4.523%Tail 1.2 bps vs 0.2 basis points aveeageBid to cover 2.39X vs 2.44X averageDirects (a measure

The BOE is expected to pause on rate cuts next week but it will only be a matter of time before the economic situation in the UK starts to pressure them into moving at a quicker pace, similar to what we have seen from the ECB in recent months. This article was written by Justin

Dow Jones / Market Watch with an article re BNP Paribas’ outlook for 2025. It appears to be gated. “Some argue that Trump’s policies (in particular tariffs), will not be inflationary on the basis that (i) he will not implement them, (ii) the dollar will entirely offset the impact and (iii) there will not be

Bank of Japan Q4 2024 Tankan report December big manufacturers index +14 (Reuters poll: 12) (at +14 this is the highest since March 2022)March big manufacturers index seen at +13 (Reuters poll: 11)December big non-manufacturers index +33 (Reuters poll: 32)March big non-manufacturers index seen at +28 (Reuters poll: 28)March small manufacturers index seen at 0

AUD/USD is down 0.2% on the day and poised for its lowest daily close since November last year now. The pair had seen quite a bit of back and forth action at times during the week. But as we look to wrap things up, sellers are the ones who are vying to come out on

China is truly a black box. For the past 15 years I’ve heard that China’s GDP numbers were off-kilter but the country has clearly produced some impressive results in construction, infrastructure, the environment and living standards. That said, the mystery about GDP continues. Bloomberg today cites Gao Shanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities, who previously

Prior +1.8%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +1.8% No changes to the initial estimates with core annual inflation seen at 2.4% on the month, marginally lower than the 2.5% reading in October at least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters poll: BOJ to hold key interest rate at 0.25% in December, say 58% of economists vs 44% in November pollBOJ to raise interest rate to at least 0.50% by end-March, 51 of 52 economists sayRate of pay increase in next fiscal year’s labor talks stands at 4.7%, falling short of 5.1% this fiscal year

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% This follows from the light changes by European indices yesterday. But with Wall Street seeing red in trading yesterday, it is weighing on the mood slightly even as US futures are holding steadier today. S&P 500 futures are marginally higher, up by 0.1% currently. This article was written

The US dollar is broadly higher pretty much across the majors’ board. JPY is notably weak on the session, USD/JPY above 153.00 as I update. The only thing we’ve had of Japan was the Q4 Tankan, which wasn’t too bad and showed firms expecting inflation above the BOJ 2% target out for 5 years. BoJ

US natural gas prices jumped 2.5% today after a surprisingly large draw in weekly inventory data. The 190 bcf drawdown compared to the average of the week of 66 bcf. This the top chart on most natural gas decks as it shows natural gas storage relative to the past five years. As you can see,

UBS says inflation will remain sticky for the foreseeable future rising prices to be a persistent problem over the next decade UBS forecast US inflation to hit 3% at the end of 2024, 2.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.5% throughout 2027. All well above the Fed’s 2% target. The background to the UBS

Restoration Hardware is out with third quarter results and shares are up 13% after hours as they were much better than feared. The company isn’t shy about sharing its views on the economy so the call later will be notable. Here are some macro highlights of the release: “The positive inflection of our business continued

Bank of America analysts are projecting lower Brent crude next year: average US$61 / bbl through 2025 Analysts say OPEC + countries want higher prices: fiscal budget deficits emerging across OPEC economies amid lower prices But this is encouraging some members to break with the agreed production limits. Add in the US and other non-OPEC

Trump says the amount of money saved by automation is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American workers, in this case, our longshoremen. I’m not sure of the implications of Trump’s anti-automation stance here. An end to the use of shipping containers perhaps? Forklifts, trucks? Dunno. More info, via Reuters: Trump

The Indian rupee has been hit, along with many other currencies, against the strong USD. The Reserve Bank of India intervened through proxies earlier this week and it looks like they are at it again – selling USD/INR. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Final industrial output data, Japan October 2024 +2.8% m/m+1.4% y/y Improvements from September. The preliminary readings for this was: Industrial Output +3.0% m/m (prior was +1.6%)Industrial Output -2.6% y/y (prior was also -2.6%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South China Morning Post (may be gated) with the report that Emmanuel Macron eyes China trip in early 2025. Related to Beijing’s potential role in Ukraine peace effortsSources familiar with the situation revealed that Macron’s top diplomatic adviser, Emmanuel Bonne, recently traveled to Beijing with a team to prepare for the president’s visit Bonne’s trip

TD Economics sees a chaotic but growing 2025 economy ahead, with Trump policies potentially shaking up markets. The bank expects both the US and Canadian economies will navigate through policy uncertainties, but warns of significant risks from potential tariffs and immigration changes. Key points: US economy forecast to grow 2.0% in 2025, down from 2.7%

Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting. In recent days, Beijing has launched a regulatory probe into U.S. semiconductor champion Nvidia, threatened to blacklist a prominent American apparel maker, blocked the export of critical minerals to the U.S. squeezed the supply chain for drones offering clues into how non-tariff measures are likely to dominate China’s tool kit.

The NZD/USD hit a new low for the year yesterday, bottoming at 0.57604, just within the key swing area between 0.5741 and 0.5772 on the daily chart. The price rebounded into the close and continued higher during the early Asian session today, reaching 0.58138, a swing area aligned with the falling 100-hour moving average (MA).

Reuters info, quoting Peter Navarro, Trump’s incoming senior counselor for trade and manufacturing: “I don’t believe the Trump Treasury Department would welcome Chinese currency manipulation very fondly. The history of China as a currency manipulator is well-known.” I posted on the reports China is mulling sending the yuan lower earlier this week: If China aggressively

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Justin has just popped up with a very important reminder: there are extremely large expiries at 1.0500 rolling off (today, Friday) – potentially offering a bit of a pull there. Justin posts option expires each day, those for Friday, December 13, 2024 can be seen here in the bottom row: Take a close look at

SocGen expects USD/JPY to experience at least a temporary dip into the 130s in the first half of 2025 due to shifting yield dynamics, despite the pair currently trading near 152. Key Points: Yield Differential as Key Driver: USD/JPY has closely tracked relative long-term yields, with an unusually strong correlation in recent years.The rise in

Canada lately has been floating a hard line against potential tariffs under Trump. A report from Bloomberg says Canada will consider export tariffs on oil, uranium and potash if Trump imposes the 25% across-the-board tariff he’s tweeted about. USD/CAD has risen about 15 pips and touched a fresh four-year high on the headlines. To be

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for November 2024 fell further, to 45.5 October was 45.8 Another ugly report. BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: any momentum built over the July-September period has now reverted back to a retreat for the sectorNegative comments during October showed similar patterns to previous months, with a focus

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Tankan survey is a key indicator of business sentiment. Its scheduled for release on December 13, 2024. This quarterly report assesses the confidence levels of Japanese enterprises and provides insights into economic conditions. This Tankan survey is particularly significant as it will inform the BOJ’s monetary policy meeting on December

The economy minister said the lower-than-expected growth does not change the government budget framework. Not exactly rocket ship emojis in Italy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Here is the video feed for Lagarde’s press conference: If you’re trading, you will want the low-latency audio feed here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

WIll maintain basic stability of Yuan exchange-rate at reasonable and balanced levelWill appropriately increase basic pensionsWill reasonably control supply of new land supply for real estate, pushing forward the work of handling commercial housing stocksCurrently domestic demand is insufficient, Some firms face difficulties in production and operation,People’s employment and income growth phase pressures For a

Nasdaq Price Prediction by ForexLive.com’s AI: Bearish Bias, Score: -6 The AI-driven prediction scale for Nasdaq futures ranges from -10 to +10, where -10 reflects extreme bearish confidence identified by AI analysis, +10 represents extreme bullish confidence based on AI-driven insights, and scores near 0 indicate a neutral or indecisive outlook, with the magnitude reflecting

Headlines: SNB cuts key policy rate by 50 bps to 0.50% from 1.00% previouslySwiss franc falls after SNB goes with 50 bps rate cut todaySNB chairman Schlegel: We do not like negative interest ratesSNB chairman Schlegel: Inflationary pressure has decreased markedly over the medium termSNB chairman Schlegel: Our main instrument is the policy rateSNB’s Schlegel:

📉 Semiconductor Sector The semiconductor sector faces a challenging day, with notable declines. Nvidia (NVDA) is down by 1.70% and Broadcom (AVGO) is sliding by 1.77%. These moves suggest a bearish outlook in what has been a pivotal industry for tech market leadership. Factors such as supply chain constraints or specific industry news may be

The EUR/USD is following a well-defined technical script after the ECB’s 25-basis-point rate cut. The pair initially dropped to a low of 1.0463, just above the upper boundary of a key swing area between 1.0448 and 1.0461. Buyers stepped in at this risk-defining level, triggering a rebound. The subsequent upside move took the price toward

It’s been a tough short-term trade in the aftermath of the ECB rate cut. The move was wholly expected and the market is comfortably fully pricing in another 25bps cut in January, with a decent chance of a 50 bps cut in March or sooner. What may have weighed on the euro initially was a

Prior week initial jobless claims 224K revised to 225KInitial jobless claims 242K vs 220K estimate. Highest since the 1st week of October4-week MA for initial jobless claims 224.25K vs 218.5K last weekPrior week continuing claims 1.871M Continuing claims 1.886M vs 1.875M estimate4-week MA 1.888M. This is the highest level November 27, 2021. This article was

The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria, which could lead to greater regional instability, along with China’s Politburo shifting its monetary policy, might have seemed like a golden opportunity for the oil market. Why? On the one hand, there’s the risk of supply shortages due to rising tensions in the Middle East, and on the

Prior was +11.5%Non-residential permits -11.0% to C$4.7BResidential permits +2.3% to C$7.9B Details: Ontario saw significant declines (-$696.4M), particularly in non-residential sectorInstitutional component declining: -20.2% m/m (-$368.2M)Commercial (-$127.5M, -5.9%) and industrial (-$80.6M, -6.4%) also declinedBritish Columbia (+$275.6M) and Alberta (+$158.9M) led residential growthMulti-family permits edged up slightly (+$37.6M), while single-family rose more substantially (+$139.6M)Total building permits

Hopes for global growth and Chinese stocks jumped ahead of the two-day Work Conference in Beijing but those looking for details were left disappointed. The main pledges were towards a more-proactive approach and higher debt relative to GDP but the details — or even the broad outlines — of politicizes were ignored. The comments called

The SNB cut rates by 50 basis points to 0.50% from 1.00%, exceeding market expectations of a 25 basis point cut. Following the announcement, the USD/CHF pair climbed from 0.8820 to 0.88937, near the top of a key swing area on the hourly chart, between 0.88808 and 0.88941. Sellers initially rejected the move at this

The US treasury will complete the coupon auctions for the week with the sale of $22 billion 30 year bonds (well 29 year and 11 month bonds). The sale will provide another key test for duration demand, following the strong reception to yesterday’s 10-year auction. However, according to BMO, historically the 30-year auctions have tailed

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 840k bpd (previously 920k bpd)2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.1 mil bpd (previously 990k bpd) Despite lifting the forecast for next year, IEA says that the oil market will remain comfortably supplied in 2025. On the revision higher, they cite China stimulus measures as

Binance had the info (link here for more). In brief: According to Odaily, recent monitoring by Arkham has revealed that BlackRock and Fidelity have collectively purchased Ethereum (ETH) worth over $500 million in the past 48 hours. The acquisition by BlackRock and Fidelity is part of a larger trend where traditional financial entities are increasingly

The final European Central Bank rate cut for 2024 is expected today, Thursday, December 12, 2024. 1315 GMT is 0815 US Eastern time European Central Bank President Lagarde follows up with her press conference a half hour later JP Morgan preview the meeting: ECB appears to be heading for a 25bp cut, possibly combined with

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report yesterday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities standing around 97%. The Nasdaq rallied strongly as there were fears of potentially higher than expected data and the hedges into the CPI release got unwound. Overall, the market’s pricing remains largely

Says will get the corporate tax rate to 15% for those making their products in the US. Otherwise 21% Trump was named by Time Magazine as the Person of the Year Said: Will look to end child vaccinations if he thinks they are dangerous or not beneficialWhen asked about war with Iran, said that anything

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 24 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 80 bps ECB: 30 bps (80% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today’s decision) 2025: 151 bps BoE: 3 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 76 bps BoC 2025: 61 bps (51%

Without today’s rate cut, inflation forecast would have been lowerWill continue to monitor inflationary pressuresAnd will adjust monetary policy if necessary to maintain price stabilityRemains willing to intervene in FX market as necessaryRate cuts will continue to be the main instrument if monetary policy needs to be eased furtherDevelopments abroad are the main risk to

Talking about lowering taxes to 15% from 21%Stock market is very importantAre going to incentivize the country to go back to workGoing to do something great with Crypto and are going to be ahead with AI (Bitcoin is trading at $101,300). AI will need electricity.Going to have a lot of talks with China.We want people

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points yesterday and the initial reaction was lower (higher CAD). However, after falling below a target at 1.4145, and the rising 100-hour MA, the price snapped back higher. In trading today, the initial reaction was to the downside before rebounding back to the upside in the

The Australian unemployment rate is expected to inch higher in the data for November. The RBA is still relaxed about the labour market and left the cash rate at its 13-year high earlier this week. The policy board next meet on 17–18 February, 2025. After the summer holidays. Nice work if you can get it.

The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since August yesterday and in the process tested the lowest level going back to November 2023 near 0.6334. The price bounced higher into the close, ending the day at 0.6368 – just above the swing area high (see red numbered circles) on the daily chart at 0.6363. The

Some argued that ECB is overestimating growth next year, which could be below 1% under Trump tariffsPolicymakers have little appetite for rushing policy amid uncertainty The 2025 GDP forecast released today was +1.1%, down from 1.3% previously. That’s hardly inspiring in either scenario. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Quintes Protocol is set to redefine decentralized finance (DeFi) with its innovative no-depreciation cryptocurrency model. Now protected by a newly-secured Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) PCT/IB2024/061188 from the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), this groundbreaking protocol offers a unique approach to perpetual asset growth, ensuring long-term value stability and positioning itself as a global disruptive force

The data is here from earlier – a stunning drop in the unemployment rate: Australia November unemployment rate 3.9% (vs. 4.2% expected)… did a double take on that Westpac are wary of the result. Analysts at the bank say the November Labour Force Survey (LFS) delivered unexpected results that, at first glance, could suggest a

Natural gas is back in the hot seat. Cold, stagnant weather in Germany has boosted TTF prices there to the highest since 2022 and now the US market is showing signs of life. Today’s storage report from the EIA showed a draw of 190 billion cubic feet compared to 165 bcf expected. That’s the largest

If you recall, it has always been the case that both sides will maintain a more cordial dialogue in saying that they are open to resolving things through talks during Trump’s first term. This time around should be no different. Trump will slap China with tariffs and then we’ll start to see the usual rebuttal

Karrier One, a decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) built on the Sui Network, is excited to announce the worldwide launch of its innovative WiFi Hotspot devices. These devices empower individuals to contribute to a decentralized connectivity ecosystem, providing WiFi offloading services to various carriers and earning KONE tokens in return. This development signifies a significant

Reuters covered the report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), with such news as: global growth will slow in 2025offshore investors are set to cut the cash they send to emerging markets by nearly a quarter A little further into the piece is this stark news from China: shift is hitting China the hardestemerging

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% It’s a decent start but it is very much early in the day. The ECB decision might be a straightforward one but investors will still look to that for some assertion later in the day. Elsewhere, US futures are a little

Exports are also weekFirms are holding back investmentSurveys point to fewer jobs being created in the current quarterThe economy should strengthen over time, though slower than previously assumedProvided trade tensions do not escalate, exports should support the recoveryIt is crucial to swiftly follow up with concrete proposals to enhance competitivenessUnderlying inflation is overall developing in

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.00% vs 3.00% expectedPrior 3.25%Main refinancing rate 3.15% vs 3.15% expectedPrior 3.40%Marginal lending facility %Prior 3.65%Disinflation process is well on trackMost measures of underlying inflation suggest that it will settle at around 2% target on a sustained basisDomestic inflation has edged down but remains high, mostly due to wages and prices

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report yesterday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities standing around 97%. Overall, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This contributed to some US Dollar weakness although we are still consolidating around

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) monthly house price gauge to +25 in November, its highest level since September 2022from +16 in October Reuters add comments: “Although the latest survey results continue to signal a steady improvement in buyer demand across the residential market, the broader macro environment is likely to pose additional headwinds moving

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision: Selic Interest Rate hiked to 12.25% prior 11.25%expected hike was to 12.0%The decision was unanimous.In light of a more adverse scenario for inflation convergence, the committee anticipates further adjustments of the same magnitude in the next two meetings.The total magnitude of the tightening cycle will be

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the technical levels that are driving the three major currency pairs and explain, and show why. In the video I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today is likely to be the busiest day of the month as we have two central bank decisions and a couple of top tier US data releases. After today, we will conclude with the FOMC rate decision next Wednesday and then we go into the Christmas holidays lull. 08:30 GMT – SNB Policy Decision The

SNB doesn’t like negative rates but they do work.SNB will use negative rates again if it has to.Negative rates did lessen the franc’s attractiveness. SNB looks at the whole franc situation, not just the euro. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The European Central Bank has trimmed its inflation forecasts while maintaining a cautious outlook on growth, according to its latest economic projections released today. The latest projections suggest the ECB’s fight against inflation is making progress, though the path to its 2% target remains gradual. The muted growth outlook could add pressure for rate cuts

I tend to think that China is underestimated, both in the short and long term. There is a narrative out there that China is ‘struggling’ and that stimulus is long overdue but the facts don’t exactly bear that out. Chinese GDP is still growing at a nearly 5% pace, which is the envy of the

Chinese economy still faces many difficulties and challengesNeed to treat difficulties properly and affirm confidenceUnfavourable impact brought by external environment has become severeWill deepen reforms and pursue high quality development in 2025Will expand domestic demandMust coordinate relationship between overall supply and demandWill implement more proactive macro policiesWill implement cuts to interest rates and reserve requirement

Pantheon is seeing the Core PCE data to show a rise of 0.13% (rounded to 0.1%) from 0.2% last month. The YoY is probably unchanged at 2.8%. However, they say it will plummet in the 1Q of next year. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level. That should help to keep price action more limited ahead of the ECB policy decision later in the day. But from a technical perspective, the pair is pinned

The price of gold is moving higher and near highs for the day. The price is up $24.61 or 0.92% at $2718.36. The high for the day has reached $2721.16. The move higher is up testing the high from November 25 which peaked at $2721.41 jut above the high for the day. Get above that

Inflation has converged toward 2% for six projections in a row, at some point in the course of 2025Past shocks have pushed inflation downProductivity we are seeing more-promising signsWe have not discussed neutral rate level in meetingI don’t think about market pricing of rate hikesRisk to inflation is now two-sidedThe direction of travel (on rates)

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report yesterday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities standing around 97%. The S&P 500 rallied strongly as there were fears of potentially higher than expected data and the hedges into the CPI release got unwound. Overall, the market’s pricing remains

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +2.4% (revised to +2.6%)PPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% expectedPPI ex food and energy +3.4% y/y vs +3.2% expected (3.1% prior revised to +3.4%)PPI ex food and energy +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (+0.3% prior)Ex food, energy and trade +3.5% y/y vs +3.5% prior This is one of the 5 reports that Fed Governor

All 71 economists poll expect BOE to keep bank rate unchanged at 4.75% next weekBOE expected to cut bank rate by 100 bps in 2025, likely by 25 bps each quarter19 of 23 economists expect US to put less than 10% tariffs on UK imports20 of 25 economists note that tariffs will have an insignificant

With that we can influence the economy and exchange rateThere is still room for further rate cutsWe are also ready to intervene in the FX market if necessaryThis step is intended to stabilise inflation between 0% and 2% Schlegel is mainly clarifying that the change in wording today doesn’t mean that rate cuts are off

The USDCAD moved lower after the Bank of Canada rate decision as the reaction was it was more of a hawkish cut. BOCs Macklem during his press conference said that they discussed both 25 and 50 basis point rate cuts before ultimately deciding on a 50 bps reduction. That the decision was driven by two

A note from BMO on the US CPI data, with analysts there saying the November core CPI gain of 0.308% has solidified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but persistent inflationary pressures suggest a slower pace of easing in 2025. Four consecutive monthly gains of 0.3% in the core index have driven

Prior month +11.5Building permits -3.1% vs -5.0% est Further details Total value of building permits in Canada decreased by $399.1 million (-3.1%) to $12.6 billion in October.Despite the decline, the October’s total value was the fourth-highest level in the series.September saw a $1.3 billion rise in construction intentions, the second-highest level in the series.Ontario’s construction

🚀 Crypto Market Soars as Bitcoin Breaches $100K. Again 🌟 The cryptocurrency market has seen a powerful surge in the past 24 hours, leaving traders and investors buzzing with excitement. With several major coins making strong moves, the momentum feels unstoppable. Let’s dive into the key highlights: 🏆 Bitcoin (BTC): Still Strong. Still 6 Digits.

BofA expects the ECB to cut rates by 25bps at its December meeting, fully in line with market pricing, and to continue easing until the deposit rate reaches 1.5% by September 2025. Despite a meeting-by-meeting approach, BofA foresees a directional bias toward further easing. The EUR faces modest downside risks, particularly against the JPY, USD,

A snippet only from Deutsche Bank, remaining bullish on the US dollar: dollar likely to remain strong versus the euroFed faces a tougher battle against inflation than the ECBforward-looking US indicators point to lasting inflationary pressuresimmigration to the US is falling, even before Trump policies, choking a “positive supply shock [that] played a dominant role

The wide range reflects the major uncertainty surrounding Germany at the moment, not least with the recent political issues. Ifo notes that if Germany fails to overcome structural challenges, then the economy will grow by only 0.4% next year. But if the right economic policy is adopted, then it can achieve growth of up to

Reuters published a piece on China is allowing the yuan to weaken next year to address higher tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. The article is gated, but this snippet from HSBC sounds warning bells. Currency adjustments are on the table as a tool to be used to mitigate the effects of tariffs.It’s tempting to

Prior 1.00%Prepared to intervene in FX market as necessaryUnderlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarterUncertainty on the economic outlook has increased in recent monthsForecast for Switzerland and global economy is subject to significant uncertaintyWill continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust monetary policy as necessarySees 2024 Swiss economic growth at around 1.0% (unchanged)Sees

ForexLive.com’s AI predictor, renowned for its order flow analysis and ongoing machine learning, provides a scoring system designed to simplify market interpretation for traders and investors. Scores range from -10 (extremely bearish) to +10 (extremely bullish), with zero indicating a market that is neutral or indecisive. Currently, the AI has assigned a score of +1

Data post is here: Australia November unemployment rate 3.9% (vs. 4.2% expected)… did a double take on that it took me a few moments to slot that 3.9 figure into the headline and then to actually hit ‘publish’ … I was not expecting such a strong surprise (yeah, I know … if I was expecting

KAST, a financial technology platform built on stablecoins to deliver a neobank-style experience, has raised US$10 million in seed funding. The round is led by HSG (HongShan Capital Group) and Peak XV Partners. A number of high-profile angels, partners of DST Global, and Goodwater Capital also joined the round. “For most countries and over half

French President Emmanuel Macron is set to appoint a new prime minister on Thursday according to government sources and reported by Bloombert. Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s was ousted last Wednesday. The discussions have excluded the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, and the hard-left France Unbowed, headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, as Macron has

If there’s any consolation to the Swiss franc, it is that while analysts were expecting a 25 bps rate cut, it wasn’t so much so the case with market pricing. The rates market showed that traders were anticipating a ~58% probability of a 50 bps rate cut with the remainder tied to a 25 bps

The likelihood of negative interest rates has become smallIf required, we will adjust rates at the March meeting Well, maybe not quite NIRP but they’re pretty much just a couple of steps away from ZIRP at the very least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures marginally lower by 0.1% currently. Equities had a good showing yesterday after the US CPI report vindicated a Fed rate cut for next week. Next up today, we’ll have the SNB and ECB. The latter is likely

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report yesterday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities standing around 97%. Overall, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This contributed to some US Dollar weakness although we are still consolidating around

This is from Reuters, citing five sources familiar with the Japanese central bank’s thinking. The sources said that there is no clear consensus yet on the decision for December. That considering some policymakers feel that the conditions are right to continue with another rate hike. But at the balance, many policymakers are thinking that they

CBS with the report that Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration next month Trump said he communicated with XI recently Bloomberg add some opinion: The invitation signals an effort by Trump to court his Chinese counterpart on the heels of threats of fresh tariffs against the world’s second-largest economy AUD/USD

A Fed rate cut next week is all but a given now after the US CPI report here. But before we get to that, the central bank bonanza will be making a couple of stops in Europe following the Bank of Canada decision yesterday. The SNB and ECB are the two main events to watch

We get the data for Australia’s jobs markets for November 2024 today. Due at 11.30 am Sydney time 0030 GMT and 1930 US Eastern time Australia’s labour report improved in October. The report showed signs of job market resilience amid a gradual economic slowdown. Employment increased by 15,900 positions, predominantly in full-time roles, marking a

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), speaking at the University of Adelaide (SACES) Luncheon, Adelaide on Friday, December 13, 2024’at 12.30 pm Sydney time 0130 GMT2030 US Eastern time (on Thursday) I haven’t got a topic for this. It’ll be helpful if Hunter has anything to say on today’s shoch jobs report: Australia November unemployment rate

US rates much higher than those in China. Outlooks for the two economies differ markedly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China to expand its private pension plan nationwide – from Monday December 15. Caixin had a heads up on this: China is poised to roll out a private retirement account program nationwide after nearly two years of trials in select cities and regions. The move comes as the country intensifies efforts to establish a personal

Goldman Sachs: We think the Bank of Japan has not yet reached a situation where it can judge that it has sufficient confidence in the outlookUnder these circumstances, we expect the BoJ to maintain its policy rate at 0.25% at the December 18 – 19 Monetary Policy meeting GS’s base case is for a January

Earlier re China: In 2024, China saw its first outflow of foreign direct investment in decades What the market misunderstands about China *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also

Summarising the findings. Concerns About Trump Presidency: Nearly 75% of Japanese companies expect Donald Trump’s next term as U.S. president to negatively impact the business environment.Key concerns include planned tariff hikes and heightened U.S.-China trade tensions. Impact of Tariff Hikes: Trump has threatened tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports, with initial tariffs projected to range

Huge improvement in the Australian jobs data may be a ‘head fake’Fed faces a tougher battle against inflation than the ECB: US$ to stay stronger than EURGoldman Sachs expect the Bank of Japan to remain on hold at 0.25% at the December meetingChina to expand its private pension plan nationwide – from Monday December 15PBoC-backed

CBA: The labour market data, coupled with the decline in wages growth,supports ourview that the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is comfortably below the RBA’s implied estimate of 4.5%.But the labour market data today does not strengthen the case for a February RBA rate cut(indeed it weakens it). Notwithstanding we stick with our call

In Chinese financial media, the PBOC-affiliated Financial News, a report saying: says that the yuan is on solid footing and will stay balancedunnamed experts are cited for the opinion Further said the possibility of the dollar weakening is increasing in line with the odds of the Fed cutting rates in Decemberyuan exchange rate will most

There is plenty of seasonality in monthly budget numbers but this is the largest deficit since August and compares to a deficit of $314 billion last November. The Treasury said calendar adjustments for benefit payments boosted outlays by some $80B compared to the same month in 2023 There are no easy fixes here but Americans

In-line CPI report leads to a blockbuster day for US stock marketsWhat the market misunderstands about ChinaGold moves up to test swing level from last week of November. Crude oil higher as well.US November federal budget deficit 367B vs 353B expectedBofA: What we expect from the November ECB meeting and the EUR reactionUS sells 10-year

A strong rise in global equities and the potential for China stimulus in the next 48 hours has lifted oil prices. Today’s US CPI report has led to a 1.8% rally in the Nasdaq as AI fever returns. The potential for Fed and PBOC rate cuts also speaks to improving prospects for global growth and

Bitwise Asset Management has released its 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025. Info CIA CoinDesk. Included in the projections: all major cryptocurrencies will see new record highs (BTC to US$200,000, ETH to $7,000, Solana to $750even bigger ETF inflows for BTC than in 2024potential bitcoin arms race — kicked off by U.S. politicians’ plans to constitute

The latest Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, for November 2024 Just … wow. Employment +35.6k expected +25.0k, prior +15.9.1k Unemployment Rate 3.9% expected 4.2%, prior 4.1% Participation Rate 67.0% expected 67.1%, prior 67.1% Full Time Employment +52.6k (part time is down 17K from October +6.2K) prior +9.7k The October report was

What’s better than a solid economy and a dovish Fed that still has plenty of ammunition to lower rates? Not much, evidently. US stocks powered ahead on Wednesday after CPI inflation data matched estimates. The numbers were good enough to convince the market that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. There may be

New Zealand Card Retail Sales – for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. In November -2.3% y/y prior -1.1% For the mm/m, no change (ie 0% m/m) prior revised to +0.7% m/m (from +0.6) ** Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as

The $39 billion reopening of 10-year notes was a strong one today, stopping through by 1.6 bps. The bid to cover was 2.7x vs 2.54x on average in the past 10 sales. Direct bids were high at 19.5% compared to 15% on average while the dealer bid was light. Yields and the US dollar ticked

The initial reaction after the US CPI data was toward a lower dollar, but we are seeing a rotation back higher. Prices are back near premarket levels currently. US stocks moved to the upside. The futures are now implying: Dow up 86 pointsS&P index of 24 pointsNASDAQ index up 122 points Owners equivalent rent rose

At the top of the hour, the US treasury will auction off $39 billion of 10-year notes. It is the second of three coupon auctions this week. Tomorrow the treasury will auction off 30-year bonds. The three-year note auction yesterday was met with average demand with domestic buyers marginally higher than their six-month average and

Headline CPI: Prior was +2.7% y/ym/m reading at +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded 0.3130% vs 0.2441% prior Core measures: Core CPI 3.3% vs +3.3% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedCore unrounded +0.308% vs +0.2800% m/m priorReal weekly earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Core services ex shelter +0.3% vs +0.3% priorCore-CPI services ex-rent/OER +% vs

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, asked about ongoing Chinese military activities around Taiwan: China’s Taiwan Affairs Office stated that they will take necessary measures to resolutely defend the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and safeguard the peace and stability of the Taiwan Straits.China’s Taiwan Affairs Office stated that they will never take a wait-and-see approach to

Fundamental Overview Gold broke out of the consolidation and rallied into an important resistance around the 2700 level. In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts expectations. Today might be one of those days as we

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

AMD Stock buy the dip plan (this is an opinion for long term investors, do your own research) Key Disclaimers This is not a price projection:The price might not necessarily reach our defined buy zone. This plan outlines a structured approach for buy-and-hold investors if the price does get there. Trade at your own risk:This

Prior +2.8%Market index 225.5 vs 213.9 priorPurchase index 154.9 vs 161.5 priorRefinance index 634.0 vs 498.5 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.67% vs 6.69% prior There’s a bit of a caveat to the latest jump in mortgage applications in the past week. Purchase activity declined but that was more than offset by a huge surge in refinancing

Gold has been valued for its stability when the financial fires are raging. That stable nature was underscored in 2024 when its price shot upward, gaining over $700 per ounce. This amounted to a 34% increase since January. The vibrant price increase has gotten traders and investors all jazzed up again about gold, with the

We discussed both 25 and 50 bpsThere are some mixed signals in the economic dataWe cut by 50 bps for 2 reasons: 1) We no longer need policy that’s clearly in restrictive territory. 2) All the data tilts towards a softer economic outlook for GDP growth compared to October estimates This article was written by

As London/European traders look to exit for the day, the US stock indices are trading higher. The broader S&P and NASDAQ index are making new session high. For the S&P index is up 51.24 points or 0.85% at 6086.27. For the NASDAQ index is up 314 points or 1.60% and breaking through the 20,000 level.

The latest outlook, in brief, from the Asian Development bank. Growth Forecast Downgraded: ADB lowers 2024 growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.9% (from 5.0%).2025 growth forecast reduced to 4.8% (from 4.9%). Key Drivers of Downgrade: Weaker-than-expected economic performance in Q3 across some economies.Softer outlook for consumption in the region. Country-Specific Projections: China: Growth forecasts

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points but the statement no longer contains explicit guidance towards rate cuts. The opening statement from the press conference has already been published but there will be a Q&A afterwards. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Below is the full text of the Bank of Canada interest rate statement: The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is evolving largely

The USDJPY continues to keep both buyers and sellers engaged in a tug-of-war. Following the CPI data release, the price dropped from just above the 200-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart at 153.79 to briefly break below the converged 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 200-day MA. However, neither of these

As the North American session begins, the US indices in pre-market are modestly higher led by the Nasdaq. Dow up 7 piointS&P up 8.59 pointsNasdaq up 43 points Yesterday, the indices all fell. US yields are higher for the 3rd day in a row: 2 year 4.169%, up 2.1 bps5 year 4.119%, up 2.3 bps10

Gasoline +5086K vs +1664K expDistillates +3235K vs +1373K expRefinery utilization -0.9% vs -0.5% exp Don’t led the headline fool you, those product builds are negative. That said, they were flagged in the private inventory data released late yesterday that showed: Crude +499KGasoline +2852KDistillates +2452K WTI was strong ahead of the report, up 99 cents to

The AUDUSD hit a new low today, dipping into a key swing area between 0.6334 and 0.6363 on the daily chart. This zone has been significant since November 2023, marked by three distinct lows. The price reached 0.6336, just above the lower boundary of this floor (see red numbered circles on the chart below). Buyers

Goldman Sachs says the dip for gold was just a blip, its going higher. GS cite: easing monetary policycentral bank buyinginvestor buying More: “Since 2022, gold prices have surged 40% even as US interest rates were climbing … That is very strange. Typically, higher interest rates make gold less attractive – because gold doesn’t pay

Gold is now up $16 on the day to $2710, which is the highest since November 24. It’s also the third day of gains since the PBOC revealed it had resumed buying gold reserves for the first time in six months. Gold is now up $75 since the news of the resumption of purchases. Aiding

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

📈 Technology and Semiconductor Surge: A Market Overview Today’s market paints a mixed picture with standout performances in the technology and semiconductor sectors. Broadcom (AVGO) leads the pack with an impressive gain of 3.26%, and Nvidia (NVDA) follows with a 1.59% increase, suggesting renewed investor confidence in these industries. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: Microsoft (MSFT)

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.4%France CAC +0.4%%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain IBEX -1.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Via Twitter: Expectations for change I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.9 mn barrelsDistillates +1.4 mn bblsGasoline +1.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

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Prior rate was 3.75% after 50 bps on October 23Economists widely expected a 50 basis point rate cutThe market was pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cutPrior statement said ” If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further” USD/CAD was trading at

The EURUSD spiked higher after the CPI data but respected the 200 hour MA for the 2nd time today. In the kickstart video, I outlined how the price needed to get above the cluster of MAs to increase the bullish bias. That was not done. Sellers leaned. The price moved back down. The selling has

The battle over $100,000 continues for bitcoin. Sellers took over yesterday on (irrational?) fears of a quantum computing breakthough that could crack bitcoin’s encryption in the future. However those fears have ebbed today in broad rally in risk assets following a subdued US inflation report. There is a broad rally in risk assets, including a

Crude oil futures are settling at $68.59. That is up $0.22 or 0.32%. The high price for the day extended to $69.02. The low price was at $67.74. Looking at the hourly chart, the price tried to stay below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below), but pushed higher in the US

Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1330 GMT): For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US November CPI data due Wednesday, ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Distribution of forecasts for the US CPI **** But,

The major US stock indices are opening higher with expectations of a 25 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting next Wednesday. CPI data this morning came in as expected for both the headline and the core measures. The A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average up 66.91 points or 0.15%

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The data needs to come in line with our forecasts to change policy He’s not beating the allegations here that they still might move in February. So, this just mainly echoes sentiment from Bullock yesterday. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Details are sparse – Japan media report. Kyodo. This doesn’t sound like a vote winner. Japanese firms looking at: weak yen pushing up imported raw material and energy costshigher PPI more generallywage demandsweak consumer demandlikely rate hikes And now higher tax? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Canada interest rate decision will be announced at 9:45 AM with the expectations of a 50 basis point cut in rates. Adam outlines the fundamental view in his post here: In my video below, I analyze the key technical levels influencing the USDCAD rate decision. With the pair trading near four-year highs

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.61 mil bpd (previously 1.82 mil bpd)2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.45 mil bpd (previously 1.54 mil bpd) On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in Q3 while the projections for next year relate

CNBC with the report: “As the President said on Sunday, and I’m in complete agreement with him, that Jay Powell will serve out his term,” Bessent told CNBC This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here is how it’s looking ahead of the open: S&P 500 futures +0.43% NASDAQ futures +0.67% Russell 2000 futures +0.72% Dow futures +0.21% Virtually all the gains in stock futures came after today’s US CPI report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The main events of the week for both the US and Canada are coming up today. First is the US CPI report at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT) and it comes with the market pricing in an 85% chance of a Fed cut next week and 82 bps in easing in 2025. I wrote a

Later today, Wednesday, 11 December, we get the US consumer inflation data for November 2024 due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Preview posts are here: Preview: What to expect from Wednesday’s US CPI reportGoldman Sachs: What we expect from the November US CPI reportUS November CPI data due Wednesday, December 11