We are on the same page and I don’t believe it will be much different in the coming meetingsExpects ECB to stick with cutting rates at a gradual pace rather than a bigger move this monthInflation pick up in latest report mostly due to base effects i.e. energy prices phasing outNew forecasts next week should reflect a substantial fall in inflation in the latter half of 2025The meeting-by-meeting approach remains the appropriate option for nowHave to adjust monetary policy not only in response to US tariffs but also on EU responseBut most likely a trade war will lead to higher inflationary pressuresFull transcript
He’s playing down any potential for a major debate on the December decision and endorsing a clear 25 bps move. That seems to be the angle that ECB policymakers have been taking as of late, so this just reaffirms that. The market pricing shows the odds of a 25 bps move at ~93% today.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
