I am uneasy with frontloading rate cuts Rates should come down with inflation Inflation data is still worrisome I’m not decided for what happens at next Fed meeting Threshold for cutting higher than at last two Fed meetings Has been more worried about inflation over jobs market There are still concerns about the jobs market […]

The data hasn’t changed since last projections in September In December, we’ll have new projections and will make a decision based on that new data We are keeping all options open given the uncertainties We’ve been getting such comments for several weeks now. The ECB continues to keep the door open for another rate cut,

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with CBS News that the United States will prevent China from obtaining Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology, underscoring Washington’s continued focus on restricting the flow of cutting-edge artificial intelligence hardware to its strategic rival. Trump reiterated that American-made high-performance chips are vital to national security and innovation

Prelim reading was 52.2 September final was 52.0 This is a a larger than expected revision but eyes are on the ISM survey at the top of the hour. The consensus is a reading of 49.5 from 49.1 previously. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is rebounding in the last few hours of trading, supported by softer economic data that has prompted some short covering. Interestingly, U.S. yields are not lower, with the 10-year up 1.3 basis points at 4.113%, while stocks are off their highs but also off the session lows. Technically, the pair has climbed back

First, Some quick Nasdaq related news from the last 24 hours on investingLive.com Swiss CPI and US ISM Manufacturing PMI lead the day with a light European docket and a modest baseline reaction unless surprises arrive. ECB and Fed speakers appear through the session. A Yale Budget Lab read shows the effective US tariff rate

Sector Overview: Technology Leads the Charge The technology sector is showing robust gains today, primarily driven by remarkable performances in semiconductors and consumer cyclical sectors. Nvidia (NVDA) leads the surge with an impressive 3.14% increase, while Micron Technology (MU) follows with a 5.72% uptick. These movements signify strong investor confidence amidst positive industry developments. Semiconductors:

Prior was 49.1 Prices paid 58.0 vs 61.5 expected (prior 61.9) Employment 46.0 vs 45.3 prior New orders 49.4 vs 48.9 prior Imports 45.4 vs 44.7 prior Production 48.2 vs 51.0 prior US stock markets opened higher but the S&P 500 fell to flat shortly before this report. There was also some pre-report selling in

Most people belief Powell knows. Does he know there’s no AI bubble? When asked whether the current boom in artificial intelligence resembles the dot-com bubble, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered a clear distinction. “Yeah, this is different in the sense that these companies, the companies that are so highly valued actually have earnings and

Separately, Australian September Household Spending +0.2% m/m expected +0.4%,prior +0.1% spending on services was unchanged in the month, spending on goods +0.4% for the y/y +5.1% vs. +5.5% expected and +5% in August the improvement, while tiny, will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia but its a patchy recovery in consumer demand, with

South Korea’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in October, ending a brief rebound as firms grew more cautious amid global uncertainty and the impact of U.S. tariffs. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Asia’s fourth-largest economy fell to 49.4 in October from 50.7 in September, sliding below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from

Fed’s Miran: Will not commit to another dissent in December, things could change RBA preview: “material miss” on inflation erases rate cut bets ECB’s Kazimir: No time or need to fine-tune or overengineer monetary policy UK October final manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 49.6 prelim ECB’s Simkus: Inflation to only shift marginally from target Eurozone October

I would not read too much into small deviations from a desired inflation path I see the risk as broadly balanced for both the economy and inflation Our next move could, in principle, be in either direction, depending on the signals we receive Kazimir has been neutral for a long time but this is the

Prior 46.2 Full report here Key findings: Output rises for first time in a year Total new orders and new export orders contract at slower rates Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The October PMI survey shows UK manufacturing production rising for the first time in a year, which is a

Goldman Sachs warned that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is set to inflict the largest economic hit of any shutdown on record, both in scale and duration. The bank said the current halt in federal operations appears broader than the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018–19, impacting far more agencies and government functions. While a short

The major US stock indices are set to open higher with NASDAQ index leading the way. in premarket trading, the futures are implying: Dow industrial average up 44 points S&P index up 31 point NASDAQ index up 218 point Amazon announced a $38 billion deal with OpenAI to supply Nvidia chips. Both Amazon and Nvidia

Prior was 47.7 This isn’t great but for all the tariffs, it’s also not that bad either. There has been a slow recovery since Trump started with the tariffs. USD/CAD is up 51 pips to 1.4061 today with the loonie among the G10 worst performers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.2% CPI M/M -0.3% vs -0.2% expected Prior -0.2% Core CPI Y/Y +0.5% vs +0.7% prior We have misses across the board here. The data shouldn’t matter much as the SNB has already ended its easing cycle and will need strong reasons to go back into NIRP (negative interest rate policy). SNB’s Chairman Schlegel

The USDCHF is the biggest mover of the day (+0.46%), extending higher to test a key ceiling area between 0.8071 and 0.8076. The high reached 0.8078 so far, briefly peeking above that resistance zone. A sustained break above this region would boost buyer confidence and open the door for further upside targets from previous swing

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. pre-ps: OPEC+ agrees to raise output by 137K bpd, as expected then they’ll do a TACO (but for OPEC) and pause hikes

Market-leading Fintech company X Open Hub was recently recognized by the UF AWARDS APAC 2025 as being the Best Liquidity Provider and Best Technology provider in Asia. The wins are exceptionally valuable, as the UF AWARDS are considered the industry’s most impartial and credible. The reason they have such a stellar reputation is largely because

Australia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in October, marking the first deterioration in factory conditions this year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. October final Manufacturing PMI comes in at a poor 49.7: flash reading was 49.7 51.4 in September Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global, said the October Manufacturing PMI showed

Prior was 51.5 Full report here Key findings: Stronger gains in both output and new orders Confidence improved, but staffing levels down slightly Price pressures dissipate Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Spain’s manufacturing industry continued its upward trajectory in October, as reflected in the improvement

November 2025 – HFM, the global multi-asset broker with a strong presence across Africa has announced the launch of Score & Roar, its latest regional promotion that connects the region’s passion for football with trading opportunities. Running from November 1, 2025, to February 28, 2026, the campaign offers traders and partners across Africa the chance

The USD is higher vs most of the major currencies to start the US session, the new week, and the new month. The move continues the trend started last week after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but said December was not on a preset course to cut rates. Versus the 3 major

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai and deliver a keynote address, the Commerce Ministry announced via state media outlet Xinhua on Monday. I haven’t spotted a confirmed time for his speech. Li is attending the opening so its reasonable to expect his keynote on

Repeats neutral rate is quite a way below the current policy rate A lot of factors drive financial markets It is a mistake to make conclusions about monetary policy from financial conditions alone Some financial metrics are loose but housing conditions for example are tight Changes in the neutral rate mean policy has passively tightened

New Zealand Building Consents, September 2025: +7.2% prior +6.1% +27.3& for the y/y percent higher than the same month a year ago. Data from Statistics New Zealand. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 49.5 Full report here Key findings: Output prices rise for first time in six months Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Germany’s manufacturing sector continued to tread water in October, with the headline PMI inching up to 49.6 from 49.5 in September, remaining just

EXPECTATIONS The RBA is widely expected to hold the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.6% tomorrow after the “material miss” (quoting RBA’s Governor Bullock) on inflation. In fact, the Australian Q3 inflation report last week surprised significantly to the upside, with the Trimmed Mean figure (RBA’s preferred inflation measure) printing at 1.0% Q/Q versus the RBA’s

A comment in Trump’s weekend interview with 60 Minutes (transcript here) should be a huge wakeup call to every country in the world. The US is positioning itself as a global defender in China’s rare earth case, saying it wants allies to continue to be able to get rare earths, and partnering with other G7

A new analysis suggests the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports is far lower than widely reported, challenging figures cited by both the media and former President Donald Trump. Citing research from the Budget Lab at Yale University, twitter commentator @RnaudBertrand noted that the average tariff actually applied to Chinese goods prior to the

Oil futures are open for trade, price pops after OPEC paused output hikes for Q1 2026. The news is here: OPEC+ agrees to raise output by 137K bpd, as expected More broadly on Globex, emini S&P 500 (ES) and NASDAQ (NQ) are up tiny also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China RatingDog PMI Manufacturing October 2025 is 50.6 expected 50.7, prior 51.2 China’s factory activity expanded at a slower pace in October as new orders and output weakened amid tariff uncertainty and softer global demand, a private survey showed Monday. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, eased to 50.6 from 51.2

Prior was 49.0 Full report here Key findings: Output volumes up marginally, despite fractional drop in order books Cost pressures intensify as charges discounted Confidence improves to strongest in over a year Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “October’s PMI data suggest that Italy’s manufacturing sector

Welcome to tradeCompass: A Trusted Map for Traders If you have been trading for a while but still feel stuck, you are not alone. Many traders start with enthusiasm but soon find themselves switching between indicators, following random advice on social media, or entering too many trades in a single day. They win some, lose

Reserve Bank of New Zealand – publishes 2025 bank stress test results Large banks well placed to withstand solvency, liquidity impact of severe scenario caused by worsening geopolitical risks Participating banks in stress test were ANZ Bank New Zealand, ASB Bank, BNZ, Kiwibank & Westpac New Zealand This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Prior 46.3 The agency notes that protectionist policies continually weigh on the industry but add that the mood has improved since September. The manufacturing PMI has never been above 50.0 since January 2023, but the trend has been to the upside since the trough in July 2023. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Trump: Not really considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles Says ‘could be’ U.S. troops on ground in Nigeria or air strikes More: There is no final straw for Putin Sometimes you have to let Russia-Ukraine get fought out I don’t set deadlines on Venezuela We have secret plans for Venezuela, lets see what happens Says will

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

We’ll have more insight on inflation in December Simkus spoke already on Friday and he’s not adding much here. He’s been leaning more on the dovish side, but it looks like he’s fine in keeping the policy rate steady now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was 49.8 Full report here Key findings: New orders flatline and employment falls in October, but output creeps higher Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “In the eurozone’s manufacturing sector, we can at best speak of a very delicate sprout of economic

Monday kicks off with manufacturing PMI releases for the Eurozone, U.K., Canada, and the U.S., followed by services PMI data two days later for some of the same countries and regions. On Tuesday, the highlight will be the RBA’s monetary policy announcement in Australia, while New Zealand will release its quarterly employment change and unemployment

JPY, JGB, Nikkei, UST traders note – it’s a market holiday in Japan today. It’s a Japanese market holiday today for Culture Day. The yen will continue to trade, of course: New Zealand Australia Singapore Hong Kong markets are all open. Interest and liquidity will be thinned out somewhat though. If you hate the yen

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Swiss CPI and the final PMI data for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the reaction will likely be muted. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is

China has abolished a long-standing tax incentive on gold sales, a policy shift that could lift consumer costs and alter pricing dynamics in one of the world’s largest bullion markets. Effective November 1, the Ministry of Finance said gold retailers will no longer be allowed to offset value-added tax (VAT) on gold purchased from the

UBS said that while no formal trade or cooperation agreement emerged from the latest U.S./China discussions, the tone of the talks was positive enough to support market sentiment. The bank described the outcome as a “modestly positive” result for global investors, suggesting it could sustain recent rallies in both U.S. and Chinese equities. UBS analysts

A couple of notes: The US and Canada switched off daylight saiving over the weekend. If you trade into North American markets you may nee to adjust your times It’s a market holiday in Japan today for Culture Day Featuring on the data agenda is the October 2025 Rating Dog China PMI published by Markit

Parent company Cboe Global Markets, based in Chicago, told investors it has begun a formal sale process for both Cboe Australia, which handles equities trading and exchange-traded fund listings, and Cboe Canada, as it refocuses on its core operations and other global growth opportunities. Roughly one-fifth of Australian equities trading currently routed through Cboe’s platform.

USD/JPY expiries remain heavily concentrated near the 150 strike — a key psychological and technical level — while notable euro and sterling interests at 1.1450 and 1.3100 could help anchor ranges into the New York cut. EUR/USD: 1.1450 (€771.9m), 1.1400 (€686m) USD/JPY: 150.00 ($1.13bn), 152.50 ($401.3m), 151.50 ($385.4m) AUD/USD: 0.6600 (A$338.6m) GBP/USD: 1.3100 (£468m), 1.3350

Melbourne Institute monthly CPI survey, for October 2025. 3.1% y/y prior 3.0% 0.3% m/m prior 0.4% The data suggest price pressures remain sticky, keeping inflation just above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target band. While the uptick is modest, it reinforces the RBA’s cautious stance on policy easing, with officials likely to seek further

The Kremlin said on Friday that Moscow places high importance on Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s upcoming visit to China, viewing it as a key event in the two countries’ growing strategic partnership. A Kremlin spokesperson told reporters that Russia hopes Mishustin will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the trip, describing such engagement

I posted on Deutsche Bank’s view of the European Central Bank on Friday, Deutsche Bank: Eurozone resilience keeps ECB doves in check but have more to add now following its latest commentary. From the note, in brief: As expected, the ECB kept policy rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting in October. President Christine Lagarde

Barclays have joined Goldman Sachs in expecting the Bank of England to cut its benchmark Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% at its meeting on Thursday November 6, 2025. The Bank of England has plenty to cite if they do go with a cut this week: weaker-than-expected UK data includes slowing wage growth, a cooling

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that the U.S. central bank should proceed with another interest rate cut in December, arguing that recent weakness in the labour market outweighs concerns about inflation — even as official data releases remain frozen by the government shutdown. “We know inflation is going to come back down,” Waller

The US and Canada switched off daylight saving over the weekend. If you trade into North American markets you may need to adjust your times. For those of us in Australia US RTH now begin an hour later in local time. If you are elsewhere its probably the same, but DYOR! For the east coast

It was a lively day in terms of price action as US stocks started very strongly, then sold off and eventually fell into negative territory in the mid-afternoon. Bids arrived late though and US stocks marched all the way back close (but not above) the intraday highs. In the last 10 minutes of trading, there

Fed’s Schmid: Dissented against rate cut because of continued momentum in economy Fed’s Bostic:Eventually got behind the cut this week.Fed’s Hammack says would not have cut Fed’s Logan (voter in 2026) says she would have preferred to hold rates Canada August GDP -0.3% vs 0.0% expected Trump told Xi: Chip sales are “between you and

I love it when a new month starts on a Monday and that’s the just the beginning of the good news for November. The clocks go back this weekend and the weather gets worse but it’s a great month for risk assets. Best month for the Nasdaq Second-best month for the S&P 500 Second-best month

OPEC+ raised output by 137,000 barrels per day, which is the same pace as last month. This round of output hikes kicks in for December but the group is clearly worried about winter oversupply as they agreed to pause hikes for Q1, 2026. That should lend some support to crude oil Monday, as it wasn’t

CNBC’s Kristina Partsinevelos reports: Trump told Xi chip sales are “between you and Nvidia.” Huang must clear antitrust, backdoor H20 risks, and energy failures. By then, a source says B30A launching mid-2026 is 50% performance and a generation behind Rubin. Beijing stalling lets developers migrate to Huawei. I think there is some worry in US

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major US stock indices are trading at Lowe’s for the day. The Dow industrial average is now down -0.18% or -89 points. At session highs the index was up 150 points. S&P index is up 3.24 points or 0.05%. At session highs the index was up 52.26

95-year-old Warren Buffett already announced that he will be stepping down from Berkshire Hathaway at year end. In February, successor Greg Abel will pen a annual shareholder letter but the WSJ reports today that Buffett will publish two letters on November 10 — one to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders and one to his three children, presumably

Fed’s Bostic is saying: Eventually got behind the cut this week Dual mandates are in tension supported a cut because it still feels we are in restrictive territory. Need to get inflation to 2%. Lesson half of upward price pressure is being reported as from tariffs. We have to see more progress before comfortable getting

Inflation expectations anchored Should proceed based on what data is telling us Should look through tariff-driven inflation Excluding temporary inflation, PCE is running at 2.5% Biggest concern now is labor market Still advocates cutting rates in December Right thing to do is to keep cutting He wants that Fed job. This article was written by

Here is a look at the week ahead from Earnings Whispers. I can’t believe D-Wave Quantum is getting top billing there above ConocoPhillips. The first is a company that reported $3.1 million in revenues last quarter and the second had $14 billion. That goes to show that we’re alot closer to the top than the

Sun: US clocks change (LDN-NY gap reverts to 5hrs); OPEC-8 Meeting. Australian Final PMIs (Oct) Mon: Japan Culture Day Holiday; Swiss CPI (Oct), EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Oct), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), Construction Spending (Sep) Tue: RBA Announcement & SoMP, French Assembly Budget (PLF/Revenue) Vote; Canadian Trade Balance (Sep), New Zealand

BlackRock unit among lenders hit by $500 million alleged private-credit fraud. The Wall Street Journal (gated) reports. BlackRock’s private-credit arm and several other lenders are seeking to recover over $500 million after what they describe as a “breathtaking” case of fraud in the opaque U.S. private-credit market. The lenders accuse Bankim Brahmbhatt, owner of Broadband

TD Securities said the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% was fully in line with expectations, with the same two board members again dissenting in favour of a hike. The firm described the central bank’s latest economic assessment as largely unchanged from July, despite a minor upgrade to 2025

China PMIs China Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is a poor 49.0, in contraction for the seventh month in row 6-month low expected 49.6, prior 49.8% Non-manufacturing 50.1 expected 50.1, prior 50.0 Composite 50.0 prior 50.6 — China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau

Nomura sees UK gilts as Europe’s most attractive bond bet Nomura Asset Management is increasing its holdings of UK government bonds, arguing they offer better value than eurozone peers thanks to higher yields and improving domestic fundamentals, according to a Bloomberg interview with Yuji Maeda, head of global fixed income at the $646 billion fund.

Japan’s finance minister issues fresh warning over rapid yen moves Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a pointed warning over what she described as “one-sided, rapid” currency moves, in her latest attempt at verbal intervention to steady the yen after recent weakness. Katayama said it was “important for currencies to move in a stable manner

Australia Private Sector Credit September 2025: 0.6% m/m vs. expected 0.6%, prior +0.6% also 7.3% y/y, fastest since January 2023 prior 7.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian Q3 PPI +1.0% q/q prior +0.2% +3.5% y/y prior +3.4% The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the quarterly rise of 1% was driven by growth in the services and construction industries, while sustained demand for residential property continued to drive rental price increases. Forget about Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts for a good

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Friday FX Option Expiries (10:00am New York cut): EUR/USD: 1.1715 (€766.5m), 1.1322 (€626.3m) USD/JPY: 152.50 ($1.42bn) AUD/USD: 0.6600 (A$888.1m) USD/CAD: 1.3850 ($1.03bn), 1.3950 ($945m) GBP/USD: 1.3250 (£314.3m) EUR/GBP: 0.8895 (€309.3m) USD/CNY: 7.0900 ($350m) Larger expiries clustered in USD/JPY and USD/CAD; moderate interest in EUR/USD and AUD/USD. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump cementing his place as a war president with his decision to resume US nuclear bomb testing. Earlier: Trump says instructed department of war to start testing our nuclear weapons Axios provide background and implications: The U.S. hasn’t conducted a nuclear test since 1992. If Trump follows through on the decision to resume testing, it

Markets are firmly convinced that the arrival of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will mean monetary policy will remain loose for longer. Since her elevation to Liberal Democratic Party leader on October 4 and subsequent confirmation as Prime Minister on October 21, investors have assumed the Bank of Japan will continue with ultra-accommodative settings aligned with

Trump: Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed department of war to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis Process will begin immediately Trump osted his announcement on social media. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick announces South Korea $200M investment in Alaska’s natural gas project. says semiconductor tariffs are not part of U.S.-South Korea deal This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s Premier Li says its necessary to Implement requirements of high-quality development in all fields and aspects of economic and social development Promote high-quality development as the theme, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, meet the people’s growing needs for a better life Focus more on strengthening the domestic cycle, coordinate the implementation

Toyota Motor CEO Koji Sato said the automaker does not face an immediate chip shortage following China’s export curbs on Dutch semiconductor firm Nexperia, though he acknowledged potential production risks if restrictions persist. Speaking at the Japan Mobility Show in Tokyo, Sato said there’s some risk, but it’s not like we’re facing shortages tomorrow. Adding

The long awaited meeting has begun. Earlier: Senate Democrats warn Trump: Don’t trade away national security secrets for China deal Trump trading away top AI and associated technology for soybean sales is a key risk As posted earleri: The meeting is expected to go for around three to four hours. prior negotiations took place between

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), the largest U.S. public pension fund, said it will vote against Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion compensation package at Tesla, setting up a major challenge to one of the biggest pay deals in corporate history. In a statement, Calpers said the proposal is “vastly greater than those of

The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting on Thursday, taking comfort in a rare stretch of economic calm marked by inflation at target and steady, if unspectacular, growth. After cutting rates by a combined two percentage points between January and June, the ECB has

Toyota executive Ueda: We are still discussing internally about reverse imports from United States Japanese government is taking positive view on issue of reverse imports from US Camry one option for reverse imports We didn’t specifically say that we will invest $10 billion in the US over the next few years We communicated to us

Bessent has praised Bank of Japan independence from the government: Bessent says Japan government gives Bank of Japan policy space, avoid excess FX volatility His comments have sent the yen stronger. Some will accuse Bessent of being a two-faced hypocrite given his government’s inference in the the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, pressuring for

The Australian Q3 2025 inflation data is here: Australian Q3 Core inflation (trimmed mean) +1.0% q/q (expected 0.8%, RBA forecast 0.6%) The result takes a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut off the table. And December too. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock said this week athat a 0.9% trimmed mean was the line

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Q3 and September month inflation data for Australia – it’s the quarterly data that is of most focus Australia Q3 CPI data: Trimmed mean CPI +1% q/q (expected +0.8%, prior +0.6%) CPI (all groups) +1.3% q/q (expected +1.1%, prior 0.7%) Weighted median CPI +1% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior 0.6%) Trimmed mean CPI +3% yr/yr (expected

US Treasury Secretary Bessent in X post: Govt’s willingness to allow BoJ policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations, avoiding excess FX volatility encouraged by Japan FinMin’s deep understanding of how Abenomics has moved away from purely reflationary policy to program that must balance growth, inflationary concerns The yen has added on a

Trump statement on something the Wall Street Journal had floated Tuesday US time. WSJ: Trump looking to lower tariffs on Fentanyl Trump now: expects to lower fentanyl linked tariffs on China will discuss farmers, fentanyl with China not sure will speak about Taiwan with Xi May speak about Nvidi;s Blackwell chip with Xi I think

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korea’s Lee: Protectionism and nationalism are rising Trade environment very different now from 20 years ago Proved shared trust is key to shared prosperity during crises Supply chain cooperation is key Business leaders in Asia Pacific region have helped achieve shared prosperity through cooperation Hopes solutions will be sought jointly to crisis at APEC

Fed poised to cut rates, but Powell expected to stay cautious The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut this week, while Chair Jerome Powell is likely to offer little in the way of new policy guidance amid growing divisions on the committee. Powell has recently underscored rising risks to the

JPY is getting a bit of a tailwind from the meeting coming up between Trump and Japan PM Takaichi. Coming up today – Trump meets Japan’s Takaichi to deepen defence, trade cooperation Takaichi has already begun ingratiating herself: Japan PM Takaichi making final arrangements to recommend Trump for Nobel Peace Prize. Hoping for a good

Australian Federal Police and the corporate watchdog, ASIC, have raided WiseTech’s headquarters part of an investigation involving alleged insider trading WiseTech Global is a firm focused on software solutions re logisitcs. A company statement said ASIC and the AFP executed a search warrant requiring the production of documents regarding alleged trading in WiseTech shares by

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

British retailers cut prices in October for the first time since March, led by the steepest fall in food costs in nearly five years, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Shop prices declined 0.3% from September, while food prices dropped 0.4%, the biggest monthly fall since December 2020. On an annual basis, overall shop

Japan economy minister Kiuchi: FX moves are determined by various factors Weak yen pushes up domestic inflation via rising import costs, could push down effective purchasing power of households, some firms Weak yen has benefit to economy by pushing up exporters’ profits, domestic capex Important for FX moves to reflect fundamentals, be stable It’s important

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi sign on framework for securing the supply of critical minerals and rare earths. This was flagged as to happen today, and here it is. White House statement: US and Japan plan to use economic policy tools and coordinated investment to accelerate the development of diversified, liquid, and fair markets

U.S./China relations are likely to remain locked in a recurring pattern of confrontation and compromise, according to Nomura’s Chief China Economist Lu Ting. Lu said the world’s two largest economies appear to be settling into a “tension–escalation–truce” cycle that will define their relationship for the foreseeable future. Recent trade talks in Kuala Lumpur suggested a

Japan PM Takaichi: Was enjoying watching Major League Baseball match with President Trump To Trump: Thank you for enduring friendship with late PM Shinzo Abe Trump contributed to Asia’s peace including Thai-Cambodia deal Middle East deal was unprecedented histrical achievement I highly value your commitment to world peace and stability Ready to promote further collaboration

S&P Global Ratings has assigned Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused company, Strategy, a “B-” credit rating, placing it in the speculative, non-investment-grade category often referred to as “junk.” rating comes with a stable outlook first time a Bitcoin-treasury-centric firm has received an S&P assessment In its review, S&P cited Strategy’s heavy reliance on Bitcoin holdings, narrow business

Ex-PBOC adviser calls for 2008-style mega stimulus to revive China’s economy A former People’s Bank of China (PBOC) adviser has called for a massive infrastructure-led stimulus, urging Beijing to model its next five-year plan on the scale of the 2008 spending package that helped lift China out of the global financial crisis. Yu Yongding, a

Shanghai Composite Index has hit a new 10-Year high, Shanghai Composite Index +0.48% Shenzhen Component +1.2% ChiNext +1.75% Following the positive trade talk news over the weekend: Positive signs emerge of a US-China deal Bessent says China to resume U.S. soybean buys, delay rare-earth curbs as trade deal nears This article was written by Eamonn

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

China is ready to build a “more stable and strategic partnership” with Australia, Premier Li Qiang told Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during talks in Malaysia, according to state news agency Xinhua. The meeting underscores ongoing efforts by both countries to stabilise relations after several years of trade and diplomatic friction. Li’s remarks suggest Beijing seeks

Japan’s service inflation accelerates: Japan September Services Producer Price Index +3% y/y (expected +2.7%, prior +2.7%) Preview – BOJ expected to hold rates as Takaichi’s fiscal tilt and U.S. risks weigh A key gauge of Japan’s service-sector inflation rose for the second consecutive month in September, reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) confidence that rising

China September industrial profits +21.6% y/y, biggest jump since November 2023 prior +20.4% rebound in corporate profitability helped by Beijing’s policies aimed at curtailing fierce price competition YTD + 3.2% y/y, biggest jump since August 2024 prior +0.9% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Some politics news of note, Trump’s US$20bn bail out of Milei seems to have propelled him to the election win. Via WSJ (gated) wrap-up: President Javier Milei decisive political win tightens his grip on Argentina’s Congress with over 90% of votes counted, Milei’s Freedom Advances party won almost 41% of the national vote, stronger than

HSBC Holdings said it will record a $1.1 billion provision to cover potential losses from an ongoing legal case in Luxembourg linked to the Bernard Madoff investment fraud: a subsidiary is defending a claim filed by Herald Fund SPC, which is seeking restitution of securities and cash related to investments tied to Bernard L. Madoff

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: won’t comment on forex levels Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Closely watching excessive, disorderly moves in FX market Forex both positively, negatively affect economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China premier: China willing to work with EU to keep bilateral relations on right track China premier met with European Council President Antonio Costa This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is still crying about an ad that clearly captured how Ronald Reagan felt about tariffs. This is surely just some kind of squeeze to try to get a better tariff deal. Canada was caught, red handed, putting up a fraudulent advertisement on Ronald Reagan’s Speech on Tariffs. The Reagan Foundation said that they, “created

The major US stock indices closed at new record levels. Lower-than-expected CPI, the expectation for Fed cut next week, and FOMO (fear of missing out), sent prices higher. Intel did report better than expected earnings after the close yesterday, helping to send chip stocks higher. AMD was also boosted after IBM, said it is able

The EURUSD traded both lower and higher today, extending to the upside after the weaker U.S. CPI data. However, sellers leaned against a swing area between 1.1645 and 1.1659, capping the move and sending the pair back down. The price has since settled back between the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines)

Dialogue between Russia and USD is continuing despite recent unfriendly steps from Washington. Such dialogue is only possible if Russia’s interests are treated with respect. Various forces, mainly UK and Europeans, trying to derail direct dialogue between Putin These things are going nowhere but the gameplan of grooming Trump (blaming UK and Europe) is back

The GBPUSD moved higher after the weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI report, but the rally quickly lost steam once price reached the 100-hour moving average. Buyers turned to sellers, capping the move and sending the pair back lower. The decline pushed the pair below the key swing area between 1.3323 and 1.3341, and through the early-week lows

Major European indices are closing higher on the day and for the week as well: German DAX, +0.13%. For the week 1.72% France’s CAC, unchanged. For the week +0.63% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.70%. For the week +3.11%. Spain’s Ibex, +0.44%. For the week +1.67%. Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.25%. For the week +1.74% As London/European traders

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count data showed: Oil +2 to 420 Gas unchanged at 121 Total rigs +2 to 550 Crude oil rallied strongly this week, gaining 7.9%. The move higher was fueled by several catalysts. First, the U.S. government announced plans to purchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), calling it “a

Next week, the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday will be the highlight at 2 PM. Fed chair Powell press conference will follow at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis point after cutting rates by 25 basis point at the last meeting and forecasting to more interest rate cuts

The major stock indices are extending to new session rise as the day works toward a close. The NASDAQ index is up 317 points or 1.3%. The S&P index is now up 1% on the day. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are on pace to close at record levels as is the Dow industrial average

The USDCAD popped higher earlier after Pres. Trump announced he was terminating trade talks with Canada, blaming Ontario ads that painted former Pres. Reagan as anti-tariff. The headline lit a quick rally, but sellers leaned against the 200-hour MA, halting the move. The pair briefly broke above that level before fading on softer U.S. CPI

Stocks trading at new highs as buyers plow in ahead of key earnings next week With US govt still shut, focus next week in the US will be on earnings and the Fed Baker Hughes oil rig count +2 at 420. Crude oil is trading near unchanged on the day. European indices close higher on

Japan finmin Katayama: Need to take various factors into account when asked possibility of raising financial income tax It’s not that the cabinet has decided against government’s target of achieving primary budget surplus Hopes the Bank of Japan will continue appropriate dialogue with markets Hope BOJ will continue appropriate dialogue with markets Hope that BOJ

China deputy head of Office of Financial, Economic Affairs Commission: External environment uncertain, unstable Economy on solid foundation Fundamentals supporting long-term growth remain unchanged Must move faster to implement new development paradigm This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I posted earlier from Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs stands by $4,900 gold forecast fespite 6% price dip Similar now, with strategists at JPMorgan believe the metal’s price could more than double within the next three years. dismissed the recent tumble, the biggest one-day drop in more than a decade, as a technical profit-taking event by

Asia’s resilience to U.S. tariffs is at risk if the supportive financial conditions that have helped so far reverse, a senior IMF official warned. Krishna Srinivasan, the IMF’s Asia director, said low interest rates and a weak dollar have allowed Asian economies to weather the tariff shock and borrow cheaply. But he warned these favourable

How many times have we heard this? A key adviser to China’s central bank has called for a “stronger fiscal push” to repair the damaged finances of households and corporations, warning that recent signs of economic resilience are concealing the true impact of the U.S. trade war. Speaking at the Bund Summit in Shanghai, Huang

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The earlier news was of China-US talks next week, not direct Xi-Trump talks: China and US start fifth round of trade talks in Malaysia today to prep for APEC In the meantime, the White House has said that two will meet on Thursday October 30. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Intel’s Turnaround Gains Momentum After Solid Q3. Bloomberg Analyst Says Execution Will Be Key Key and I Ask If There’s More Meat After the Earnings Move? Intel’s long awaited turnaround story is finally beginning to take shape. Despite what appeared to be a slight miss in its fourth quarter guidance, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor Analyst

South Korea’s Industry Minister has revealed the country is seeking a major U.S. investment package, directly linking the request to the success of ongoing tariff negotiations. In a move that formally connects U.S. investment commitments to trade policy, the minister stated that the desired sum would be “smaller than $350 billion”, seeks smaller cash portion

China state planner head: Economy relies on the real economy to move towards future Strong domestic demand is strategic underpinning for China’s modernisation There is room, potential for China to expand domestic demand Will implement some major investment projects Will improve structure of government investment Increase proportion sent to people’s livelihoods Will limit local market

Shares of Tesla fell on earnings and have continued lower so far during the conference call. The company warned about “near-term uncertainty” on sales and profits but said there were long-term growth prospects. Revenues topped estimates but earnings missed. Details: EPS 0.50 vs 0.56 expected Revenue $28.095B vs $26.70B expected (record quarter) Note that this

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is delivering a major speech ahead of his first budget to be The US has fundamentally changed its approach to trade It’s not a smooth transition, it’s a rupture The decades-long process of economic integration with the US is over Our relationship with the United States will never be the

Says whenever he speaks with Putin they are good conversations but don’t go anywhere Says it didn’t feel right to have a meeting with Putin, so he cancelled it Oil prices rose 3.7% today in their best day since July as the sanctions likely leaked out ahead of time, and then rose further afterwards. WTI

OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) is designating a number of Russia based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries All entities owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by Rosneft and Lukoil are blocked even if not designated by OFAC. It’s becoming increasingly evident that Vladimir Putin has a habit of overpromising and underdelivering—likely by design. Last

United Rentals shares are down 7.7% after hours and normally that’s a terrible sign for the real economy but I’d argue against that take today. Shares have plunged to $925 from $990 at the close at $1008 earlier today. Part of the drop is because some major expectations have been building as shares ripped to

Prior was +1 Confidence +2 vs 0 prior This index fell to a post-pandemic low in May but has recovered back to May 2024 levels since. The quarterly Australia NAB Quarterly Business Survey offers a detailed snapshot of business conditions and sentiment across sectors, providing richer insights than the usual monthly release. It tracks indicators

Long meeting scheduled with China’s Xi in South Korea and thinks something will work out Says it did not feel right to have a meeting with Russia’s Putin, so he canceled it, and felt it was time for Russian sanctions. Hopes sanctions won’t be on for long with Russia. Whenever he speaks with Putin they

The yen is the early loser in today’s FX trade as the slump that started with the LDP selection of Sanae Takaichi continues. There was initially a sharp drop in the yen (i.e. a rise in USD/JPY) after the October 6 selection but that tempered as she initially struggled to form a government followed by

Former Bank of Japan Executive Director Maeda thinks market pricing for the Bank of Japan isn’t hawkish enough. He says the BOJ is likely to raise rates in either December or January. That contrasts with market pricing at 45% for December and 73% for January. He then sees a further hike to 1% some time

US President Donald Trump may be strengthening his tactics in an effort to end the war in Ukraine, sanctions that truly bite Russian oil production. Today he announced sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies after a planned meeting with Putin was called off. Trump said he “felt it was time” for the sanctions, noting

Netflix (NFLX) shares fell roughly 6% in after-hours trade Tuesday after the streaming giant’s Q3 earnings revealed healthy topline growth but a notable step back in profitability — with investors noting margin compression. Revenue: $11.51B vs $11.51B expected EPS: $5.87 vs $6.97 expected Revenue rose 17% year-on-year to $11.51B, right in line with Netflix’s forecast,

Gold was down $10 a short time ago in early Asia-Pacific trading but steadied there and has since rebounded to unchanged since the NY close. We’re coming up on 9 am in Tokyo and 8 am in Beijing so the next few hours will be a big test. Gold was steady in Asian trade yesterday

All eyes are on precious metals as we head into Asia-Pacific trading, following the 5.3% drop in gold yesterday and 7.11% in silver. Will Asia buy the dip or will the selling continue? Economic data and news won’t be a big distraction, at least the scheduled variety. The lone indicator on the calendar is the

Will safeguard global supply chain stability I wonder if it will ever be possible to address some of the real concerns about China while keeping trade largely open. China seems to be taking the problems of industrial over-capacity to heart, or at least offering token assurances. Surely they can understand why other countries wouldn’t want

Gold is down $80 in a heartbeat as Asia-Pacific traders come online. The selling came almost immediately as Japanese markets opened and now gold is trading at $4040. The big figure looms large. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Mint reports: India and the US are closing in on a long-pending trade deal that could slash the current tariffs for Indian exports to 15–16% from a punishing 50%, according to three people aware of the matter. The report also says India may gradually reduce imports of Russian oil while allowing in some GMO corn

Front month copper traded at $4.94 and held up well in the rout in precious metals prices. Many copper miners (often because of associated gold production) were beaten up anyway. Today, TD Cowen was out with a report highlighting a tightening market and they boosted their 2026 price to $5.25 from $4.40 previously. They also

Prior was -¥242.B Exports +4.2% y/y vs +4.6% expected Imports +3.3% y/y vs +0.6% expected There was a surprise rise in imports that kept Japan in a trade deficit. Exports to USA -13.3% y/y Exports to Asia +9.2% y/y Exports to EU +5% y/y Exports to China +5.8% y/y This article was written by Adam

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a large drawdown Major US stock indices close mixed The US to China soybean sales? $0 UK Chancellor aims to support BoE rate-cut path Open AI confirms it will launch ChatGPT Atlas, an AI-powered web browser Trump: We will discuss a lot of things with China Pres. Xi

I keep getting the sense that Trump is in dealmaking mode. Earlier we head about a potential deal with Indian and now his agenda is coming into focus. It will include a visit to Japan from Oct 27-29. Previous reports suggested Trump would visit Japan after the APEC summit from Oct 31-Nov 1 but now

‘Cutting red tape’ is always a cheap shot for a politician. Let’s see how this goes. The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is scheduled to unveil a new deregulation initiative at the Regional Investment Summit in Birmingham on Tuesday. According to the Treasury, the plan involves a “crackdown on needless form-filling” and is aimed at scrapping

OK, here we go, time to lose some sleep over this! Risk for the S&P 500? Say it ain’t so! Bank of America has warned that the S&P 500 faces a significant risk of “forced selling” due to growing problems in the opaque private lending market. The bank cautions that a popular investor strategy has

Getting down into the stock picking weeds! This from a Dow Jones/Market Watch piece, in summary. Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson has declared a “historically opportunistic stock picking environment,” arguing that a wide divergence in company earnings prospects is creating new opportunities for investors. In a recent note, Wilson’s team said their strategy is to

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

South Korea’s economy is showing further signs of weakness, with new data revealing a significant drop in exports for the start of October. Despite this, the Bank of Korea (BOK) is overwhelmingly expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week, prioritising financial stability over immediate stimulus. Preliminary data from the customs agency

China Commerce Ministry announces 2026 crude oil import quotas and application rules for non-state traders permits non-state trade imports of 257 million metric tons of crude oil in 2026. This is the same quota as this year. Its likely to be perceived as the Chinese government not expecting a growth in demand. — What is

China permits non-state trade imports of 257 million metric tons of crude oil in 2026 PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0930 (vs. estimate at 7.1219) South Korean exports fall 7.8% in October, fuelling bets on a November BOK rate cut I’ll be at the ‘Australia FIX Conference 2025’ on Wednesday, Sydney time –

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

I’m excited to be heading to the Australia FIX Conference 2025 on Wednesday, in Sydney Australia. The Australia FIX Trading Community Conference is a landmark event in the nation’s trading calendar, drawing over 300 of the brightest minds in institutional trading for a dynamic day of insights, innovation, and networking. As a defining moment for

Standard Chartered: raises China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 4.9% says yesterday’s data showed mixed signals: exports resilient, investment a sharp decline, with weakness spreading beyond the property sector consumption weakened continued weakness in domestic demand, particularly in investment expects additional fiscal support measures overcapacity and global uncertainty may delay investment plans in the near term

People’s Bank of China sets its 1 and 5 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) rates unchanged. The PBOC uses the reverse reop rate as its main policy rate now. Currently 1.4%. Most lending in China is tied to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing. Both rates were last trimmed by 10

China September rare earth magnet exports at 5,774 metric tons, down from 6,146 tons in August-customs data Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States and Mexico are China’s top five export destinations for rare earth magnet by volume in September-customs data China’s September rare earth magnet exports to the United States fell 28.7% from August-customs

more to come China New Home Prices -0.41% m/m, fastest fall in 11 months prior –0.30% y/y -2.2% (prior -2.5%) Used Home Prices -0.64% m/m prior –0.58% -3.2% y/y (prior -3.5%) Home prices in 70 major cities in China fell m/m. The property crisis in China has been ongoing for multiple years. Its continuing to

Economic growth data from China for the July – September quarter Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) +4.8%, in line with the consensus expectation expected +4.8%, prior +5.2% Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) +1.1%, beating expectations expected +0.8%, prior +1.1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese economic activity data for September 2025. Retail Sales (YoY) +3.0% expected +2.9%, prior +3.4% Industrial Production (YoY) +6.5% expected +5.0%, prior +5.2% Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) -0.5% expected +0.2%, prior +0.5% Property Investment YTD (Y/Y) -13.9% expected –13.1%, prior –12.9% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Moody’s Analytics forecasts that China’s economic data, due for release at the top of the hour, will show a significant deceleration in growth. The firm anticipates GDP growth will slow sharply to 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the second quarter. Further weakening is expected in domestic demand, with retail sales growth forecast to ease

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sectoral factor model of core inflation 2.7% y/y in Q3 prior also 2.7% Earlier: New Zealand Q3 CPI +1% q/q (expected +1%) and +3% y/y (expected +3%) The RBNZ target band is keeping inflation within 1% to 3%. *** Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s sectoral factor model of

China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang removed from post as permanent WTO representative Xinhua report. No further details for now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifent in Malaysia next week to try to make progrses on trade. “We will meet in-person next week to continue our discussions,” Bessent wrote, after saying they had spoken on the phone Friday and engaged in detailed discussions. Trump will also travel next week

A report earlier today indicated that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak by phone today with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the ongoing trade negotiations. It’s not clear what time that was scheduled for as it would have had to been early this morning Washington time or late this evening, in order for

S&P 500 futures are now more than 130 off the lows in a massive reversal of earlier losses. Futures are now up 39 points, in part because Trump keeps repeating that he expects China will be ‘fine’. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

BOE’s Greene is speaking and says: Core and services inflation are going sideways. Indications are in disinflation process is slowing. Concerned about second-round effects of inflation Firms more sensitive to upside inflation surprises. Policy not meaningfully restrictive Should slow down rate cutting cycle Slack has opened up in the labor market making wage part of

At times, the Fear & Greed index is a somewhat-useful indicator of market sentiment, particularly at extremes. But somehow it’s showing ‘extreme fear’ at the moment despite the S&P 500 being just 1.8% off the all-time high set just last week. On the face of it, that should be a strong buy signal for stock

The Fed’s Musalem: I could support a path with another cut if more risk to jobs emerge and inflation remains contained Fed should not be on a preset course, and followed balance approach Sees limited space before rate cuts would make policy accomodative Important for the Fed to be cautious right now Does not make

No one looks smart calling for stock markets to go up, but you can look smart or you can be right so here’s what I’m thinking: The market got skittish in October. To me, it wasn’t any single thing but a whole bunch at once: September saw an intense rally in stock markets Trump and

How do you say cutting rates without saying it? It sure sounds to me like he’s signaling a cut at the October 29 meeting. At present, market pricing is only at 68% for a cut, though one is fully priced in at the December meeting so that might not tee up a big CAD move.

Things coming along pretty well Zelensky also said that he’s confident with US help he can stop the war and that it’s most important for Ukrainians to have security guarantees. Some times these things can happen quickly. The battlefield has stagnated and the costs are high. Maybe this really is the end? If so, I’d

Stock futures were deeply negative at one point but the market made an impressive turnaround helped by more TACO comments from the President. On the day: S&P 500 +0.5% Nasdaq Comp +0.6% DJIA +0.6% Russell 2000 -0.6% Toronto TSX Comp -1.0% On the week: S&P 500 +1.7% Nasdaq Comp +2.1% DJIA +1.6% Russell 2000 +2.5%

Trump on China trade: We’ll see what happens Trump: I think Putin wants to end the war WH Adviser Hassett on China: Confident we can get back to place that is good for both BOC’s Macklem: We’re putting more emphasis on risk when it comes to the next rate decision Fed’s Musalem: I could support

Singapore’s exports rose 6.9% y/y in September, beating expectations for a 2.1% fall. Gains were led by electronics and shipments to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. US-bound exports fell 9.9% amid new American tariffs. Government still expects 1–3% export growth for 2025, with slower momentum ahead. Pharma tariff implementation delayed pending negotiations. — Singapore’s non-oil

South Korean Finance Minister Koo said it’s uncertain whether Trump will accept Seoul’s opposition to a US$350 bn upfront investment. Seoul warns a one-time payment could destabilise FX markets, risking a crisis. Koo raised the issue with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who agreed to convey Korea’s concerns. The July trade deal remains pending amid disputes

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Kashkari says the economy may be stronger than expected, with limited risk of major slowdown (earlier headline post). Sees labour-market weakness as a bigger risk than renewed inflation. Supports two more rate cuts as insurance, not because of immediate weakness. Inflation may stay near 3%, but unlikely to surge higher. Warns the shutdown is blurring

China’s imports of Canadian oil are set for a record October, exceeding 5 mn bbl so far. 70% of Vancouver shipments are heading to China as it reduces reliance on US crude. Canadian heavy crude prices have strengthened on Asian demand. Vancouver crude now trades at a premium to Texas-loaded Canadian barrels for the first

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

“Gold is down because …” Are y’all ready for the tedious hindsight narratives that’ll arrive hours after the fact? That’s a shame. ‘Cause I don’t have any. It’s a wild session, slammed from its parabolic high. There will be more volatility to come. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Standard Chartered says reserve managers are buying the US dollar when it weakens and selling on rallies. Dollar reserves and Bloomberg Dollar Index have moved opposite in 17 of 20 quarters, per IMF data. In Q2 2025, reserves rose as the dollar fell; in Q4 2024, reserves fell as the dollar rallied. The behaviour reflects

JPMorgan and Goldman estimate jobless claims fell to ~217k despite data gaps from the shutdown. Both layoffs and hiring remain subdued, keeping the labour market stable but stagnant. Small-business hiring continues to slow, according to Bank of America data. Continuing claims are steady near 1.9 m, consistent with a 4.3% jobless rate. — Info via

The European Central Bank could deliver another interest-rate cut by mid-2026, but that may not stop the euro from strengthening against the dollar, according to MUFG. Analysts at MUFG said the Federal Reserve is likely to be more active in easing policy over that period, with markets potentially pricing in additional Fed rate cuts, which

1730 GMT / 1330 US Eastern time: Fireside Chat with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at Peterson Institute for International Economics The Bank of Canada cut its overnight policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, the first rate cut after a six-month pause, back on on September 17. This article

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

ANZ forecasts for gold and silver: gold to peak at US$4600 by June 2026 gold to US$4400 by year end 2025 see the potential for lower in H2 of 2026 as the US Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle silver to peak at US$57.50 by June 2026 ANZ: Mounting concerns around the Fed’s independence, political

Earlier news on oil: ICYMI: Trump says India will stop buying Russian oil, vows to pressure China next Bessent prodding Japan now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian labour market report Unemployment Rate 4.5% – an ugly result that’ll reignite expectations for an RBA rate cut on November 4. expected 4.3%, prior 4.2% 4.5% is approaching a four year jobless rate high Employment Change +14.9K expected +17K, prior -5.4K Participation Rate 67.0%, a higher result will take a little of the sting

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Bank of Japan’s Tamura BOJ should push rates closer toward levels deemed neutral Growth rate of Japan’s economy is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path Don’t need to raise rates sharply, tighten monetary policy now when there are both upside, downside risks My view is that there is a

Central bank heads from Japan, China, South Korea held a three way meeting Bank of Japan Governor Ueda chaired the meeting governors exchanged views on recent economic and financial developments This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to 4.5% in September — the highest in nearly four years — as more people entered the labour force, complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia’s balancing act between supporting growth and containing inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a net employment gain of 14,900, below expectations for a 20,000

Bank of America said China’s September credit data underscore persistent weakness in loan demand, as sluggish property and investment activity offset modest improvements in infrastructure-related lending. New yuan loans rose by 1.29 trillion yuan, in line with BofA’s expectations but below the market forecast of 1.46 trillion yuan. Total social financing (TSF) came in slightly

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

China’s deflation pressures eased slightly in September, though price declines remain entrenched, leaving the economy on course for its longest deflationary stretch since market reforms began in the late 1970s. Official data showed factory-gate prices (PPI) fell 2.3% year-on-year marking a 36th consecutive monthly decline broadly in line with forecasts Consumer prices (CPI) dropped 0.3%,

RBNZ’s Conway speaking with Bloomberg TV: The 50bps rate cut was a very finely balanced decision Bit nerve wracking with inflation at the top of the band Excess capacity gives us confidence inflation will come down NZIER survey solidified our thinking about policy Open to further cuts in the cash rate as required Let’s see

China September CPI -0.3% y/y vs. expected -0.2%, prior -0.4% food prices dropped 4.4%y/y non-food prices rose 0.7% prices for consumer goods fell 0.8% service prices increased 0.6% CPI +0.1% m/m expected +0.2%, prior 0% food prices rose 0.7% non-food prices fell 0.1% consumer goods prices +0.3% service prices fell 0.3% PPI -2.3% y/y expected

In its intensifying trade dispute with Washington, Beijing believes it has found a key point of U.S. vulnerability: President Trump’s obsession with the stock market, according to people familiar with Chinese policy discussions. The Wall Street Journal with the report: Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping, are reportedly convinced the U.S. economy cannot withstand a

7.1 is a ’round number’ psychological level for the USD/CNY refernce rate fixing. Today: PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0995 !!! (vs. estimate at 7.1281) EUR, AUD, GBP …. all have popped. I wouldn’t be looking for an extended follow through in the hours ahead, we may have to wait for Europe and

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said it’s now “semi-rational” for investors to hold gold, acknowledging that the metal’s appeal has strengthened amid today’s uncertain market backdrop. Speaking at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference in Washington, Dimon said there is “some logic” in owning gold even after its sharp rally, though he stopped short of calling

10am US Eastern time EUR/USD option strikes: 1.16 around 4bn EUR This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The euro may weaken in the months ahead if expectations rise for further European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts, according to a report from Standard Chartered. Strategists at the bank said that while the ECB has already shifted to an easing stance, markets could begin pricing in another rate cut as early as December, particularly

I noted earlier the hit the USD was taking from the strong CNY setting: The PBOC cracking 7.1 in its USD/CNY fix has sent the USD lower across the board While EUR is pinned by a large set of option expiries: EUR4.13bn strikes in EUR/USD circa 1.1600. A likely magnet for EUR/USD in Asia. Other

0845 US Eastern time/1245 GMT: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C. 1220 US Eastern time/ 1620 GMT: Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association

China commerce ministry: Responds to US saying it has proposed to talk with China after rare earths restrictions US cannot have talks while threatening to intimidate and introduce new restrictions, which is not right way to get along with China Urges US side to correct its ‘wrong practices’ as soon as possible, show sincerity in

JPMorgan Asset Management is aiming to double its Asia-Pacific assets under management to $600 billion by 2030, with a long-term goal of reaching $1 trillion, according to Asia-Pacific CEO Dan Watkins. Speaking at a conference in Seoul, Watkins said the firm plans to replicate the strong growth achieved over the past five years, when regional

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of America expects precious metals to extend their rally into 2026. Forecasting gold at $5,000 an ounce and silver at $65 an ounce. Analysts at the bank said the White House’s unconventional policy approach, marked by: large fiscal deficits, rising debt, and pressure to lower interest rates should continue to support demand for gold.

Australia NAB Business Survey Business conditions 8 prior was 7 but revised to 8 Business confidence 7 previous 4 – Australian business conditions held steady in September, as stronger sales and profits were offset by weaker employment, according to the latest National Australia Bank (NAB) survey. NAB’s index of business conditions was unchanged at +8,

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled it will remain cautious and data dependent on future policy moves, with the board seeing no immediate need to cut interest rates at its September meeting despite softer economic indicators and ongoing uncertainty abroad. AUD/USD is barely changed. Minutes released Tuesday showed the board kept the cash rate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said the Australian dollar had appreciated slightly since its previous meeting, supported by widening yield differentials with other advanced economies. In its latest minutes, the central bank noted that the real trade-weighted index of the Australian dollar was now close to its estimated equilibrium level, based on its long-run

Beijing has accused the United States of damaging the atmosphere for trade talks by repeatedly tightening restrictions on Chinese exports, even as China insists its own new export control measures on rare earths are lawful and transparent. According to the Global Times, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said Beijing had notified Washington

At Monday open: Shanghai Composite down 2.49% Shenzhen component down 3.86% ChiNext down 4.44% Hong Kong stocks open lower: Hang Seng down 2.5%, tech index down 2.43%. — This in relation to renewed tensions with Trump. Late Friday: Trump announces a 100% tariff on China in addition to current tariffs, but not immediately China responds

Chinese YTD trade data China Jan-Sept yuan-denominated exports +7.1% y/y Jan-Sept yuan-denominated imports -0.2% y/y Q3 yuan-denominated imports +4.7% y/y more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian Tesla owners have launched a class action lawsuit accusing the company of failing to deliver promised self-driving features on vehicles sold before 2024. The case alleges that drivers who paid up to A$10,100 for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software cannot access it on Model 3 and Model Y cars fitted with the third-generation (HW3)

Back on Friday we had the early news on the efforts of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to publish the latest CPI report: Big news – US plans to release the September CPI report data despite government shut down US BLS recalls staff to finish CPI report, prioritising Social Security and Fed timelines

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Shanghai Securities News reported on Monday that several major Chinese brokerage firms believe the momentum in China’s equity market remains intact, despite external pressures from global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Analysts cited by the paper said the A-share market’s medium-term outlook remains resilient, supported by improving corporate earnings, targeted policy support, and signs of

ANZ Research says China’s economic separation from the United States is set to deepen as trade frictions escalate. Chief economist Raymond Yeung wrote that while overall exports have held steady, China has steadily diversified away from the US, with direct shipments to America falling to 12% of total exports as of August 2025, down from

China auto industry body CPCA: China sold 2.3 mln passenger cars in Sept, up 6.6% y/y from a 4.9% increase in August Tesla Inc exported 19,287 China-made vehicles in September This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China Customs vice minister: Great efforts are needed to stabilise foreign trade in Q4 In Q1-Q3, China’s foreign trade has shown resilience with improving structure Current external environment still complex and grim with rising uncertainties According to a Customs survey, Chinese exporters confidence index has improved for five straight months Survey shows Chinese importers confidence

Crypto under pressure: who stayed strong, who cracked, and what you can do next Scope: Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin Window: Oct 10 to Oct 12, local time +02:00 All six of the biggest coins by market cap faced the same hard moment at 23:00 on Oct 10. Prices dropped across the whole market

Trump is out with an announcement on tariffs: It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some

It turns out you can put Humpty Dumpty together again. Lecornue resigned at the start of the week but he’s been re-appointed and is tasked with former a new French government, according a report in Elysee. Between this, Japan and Trump it’s going to be an interesting weekend in politics. This article was written by

The St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem is speaking and says: Fed’s goals are in tension Inflation running high, labor market showing signs of potential weakness Balanced approach on monetary policy only works if inflation expectations are anchored Less able to respond to short-term labor market fluctuations if inflation expectations become unanchored Right now inflation expectations

Oil was having a rough day before Trump threatened China with fresh tariffs. It was bouncing around $60 and the lowest levels since May. But with the rout in markets following the Trump-China spat, we have crude down $2.60 to $58.91. That’s the lowest since May and the second-lowest weekly close in four years. The

Trump: Will need to raise tariffs on China goods coming into the US The BLS will release the September CPI report on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 AM ET October UMich US consumer sentiment 55.0 vs 54.2 prelim Canada September employment +60.4K vs +5.0K expected Fed’s Musalem: Feds goals are in tension Baker Hughes Oil

The GBPUSD moved lower earlier today, breaking to a new low not seen since August 5. The decline tested that prior low at 1.32594, where buyers stepped in to stall the fall. A sharp reversal followed after news that President Trump was preparing massive tariff increases on Chinese imports, triggering a strong rebound in the

It was a positive day for US equities until Trump blew it up at 10:30 am ET with a tweet threatening new tariffs on China because of rare earth controls. Details have been light since then but the market isn’t waiting for details. The last few months have been a smashing success for bulls and

Oil rigs: -4 at 418 Gas rigs +2 at 120 Total Rigs -2 at 547. The price of crude oil is trading sharply lower by $2.48 and $59.05 as the market reacts to the prospects of higher tariffs slowing growth and demand. Hopes for continued peace in the Middle East is also an influence as

The S&P 500 is down 2% at the moment and if it closes that way, it will be the first 2% (or more) loss since April 4. That was the Liberation Day rout and included a 6% closing decline. The worst day since then was August 1, when there was a 1.6% closing decline. Back

It’s something of a Black Friday in the crypto market with extreme selling in some names after Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese exports late in the day. Bitcoin is down 6% on the day to $113,700 but much-larger moves are happening in smaller names, starting with the 11.5% drop in ethereum and

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

There is no end in sight for the US government shut down. Which is not really news. At least there is this: Big news – US plans to release the September CPI report data despite government shut down This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly Inflation has come in much less than had feared Labor market is to a point where softening looks like could be more worrisome if don’t risk manage it Policy is still modestly restrictive after Sept rate cut Fed is also projecting more cuts, part of risk

China has imposed sweeping new export controls that extend far beyond semiconductors, covering key industrial inputs like rare earths and even drilling equipment. Headlines on this here from yesterday: China’s Commerce Ministry tightens rules on rare earths exports China commerce ministry announces export control on some rare earth equipment, materials EU expresses concern about China’s

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UBS says investors should stay engaged in artificial intelligence, arguing that the rally remains supported by innovation, adoption, and accelerating capital expenditure rather than hype. The bank pointed to ongoing product innovation driving compute demand, citing OpenAI’s latest developer updates and partnerships with AMD and NVIDIA as proof of deepening ecosystem cooperation. UBS estimates as

Japan govt tariff negotiator Akazawa spoke with US commerce secretary Lutnick on phone Akazawa, Lutnick confirmed to smooth implementation of US-Japan agreement to further strengthen economic ties This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed on Friday that the US–Japan trade agreement will serve to further strengthen the two nations’ strategic and economic ties, Tokyo said in a statement. The two officials held a 60-minute call beginning at 8 a.m. Tokyo time (2300 GMT Thursday), according to

Magnitude 7.2 earthquake strikes Mindanao, Philippines US Tsunami Warning System: Tsunami threat after 7.4 earthquake strikes Philippines Hazardous tsunami waves possible within 300km of earthquake epicenter after 7.4 earthquake off coast of Philippines, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finmin Kato: Won’t comment on forex levels Recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements in forex market Weak yen has both benefits, disadvantages Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals More: Will make decisions

Australian Melbourne Institute survey of consumer inflation expectations for October 2025 4.8% prior was 4.7% The latest figure of 4.8 % is up slightly from 4.7 % in September. September itself represented a rebound from August’s lower level (3.9%) prior to that. Historically, inflation expectations in recent years generally fluctuated in the 3–5 % range,

A senior White House official said the latest agreement aimed at securing a pause in fighting and the release of hostages will be presented to the Israeli cabinet on Thursday. If approved, Israel will begin withdrawing its forces to a designated line, a process expected to take less than 24 hours. That pullback would trigger

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann is speaking Thursday at 0830 GMT / 0430 US Eastern time keynote speech, on prices & consumption, “Explaining the consumption gap” following Mann’s address, there will be a response from former MPC member Michael Saunders before both panellists take part in a Q&A This article was

China tightens rare-earth export rules, imposes new dual-use licensing from December 1 China has announced sweeping new restrictions on rare-earth exports, requiring both foreign and domestic companies to obtain special licences for items with potential military applications, in a move that underscores tightening controls over materials critical to global technology and defence supply chains. The

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is considering bringing full-year appropriations bills — including legislation to fund the Pentagon and military pay — to the Senate floor for a vote, as bipartisan talks on a short-term funding measure remain stalled. Via Axios: With negotiations over a temporary stopgap bill frozen, Thune is weighing alternative

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said the central bank could raise interest rates if inflation expectations continue to rise and push up underlying price pressures, but warned that another hike this year would be hard to justify given weak economic momentum. In an interview with Reuters, Wakatabe—long seen as a monetary policy

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

1215 GMT / 0815 Eastern time Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will discuss productivity, competition and innovation in Canada’s financial sector. — The latest policy move from the Bank of Canada came on September 17, 2025, when it cut its overnight policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50

Appearance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee – Supplementary Budget Estimates 2025-26 – Canberra Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent From 9am Sydney time 2300 GMT / 1800 US Eastern time — At its September meeting, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60 %, following three cuts earlier in

Support and resistance. Trend lines. Chart patterns. Have you ever asked yourself… “Do these tools truly work in the markets?” “How can I really tell?” If you have, then you’re ahead of at least 50% of all traders out there! Because while most of them put blind faith into textbooks and videos… …you’re starting to expand beyond that. But, how can you verify what’s

China said it will no longer seek the special treatment typically afforded to developing nations at the World Trade Organization, easing a long-standing dispute with the U.S. over trade rules. Premier Li Qiang announced in New York on Tuesday that China will stop requesting “new special and differential” treatment in any current or future WTO

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UBS has left its EUR/USD forecasts unchanged, projecting 1.23 by end-2025 and 1.18 for 2026. The bank expects persistent softness in U.S. labour markets and a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts to weigh on the dollar over the coming year. UBS economists forecast an additional 75bps of Fed easing in 2025—more than markets currently

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Hedge fund Verdad Advisers LP is preparing to launch a new Japan-focused fund targeting small-cap equities, as global investors increasingly look beyond blue chips for returns in Tokyo’s resurgent stock market. Bloomberg (gated) carry the info. Founder Daniel Rasmussen said the fund could launch as early as this year and will extend the strategy of

Australian monthly CPI (August 2025) +3%, above July and above expected, and also right at the top of the RBA 2-3% target band expected 2.9%, prior 2.8% Trimmed mean 2.6% y/y, which is better news than that headline figure. prior 2.7% AUD/USD is ticking up a little on this hot data. — As noted earlier

Japanese September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 48.4 manufacturing sector activity fell at the fastest pace in six months further declines in new orders, hit a five-month low decline in export orders eased from August’s 17-month low input price inflation eased to levels not seen since early 2021 output inflation accelerated from August manufacturing jobs

Reserve Bank of New Zealand news. NZ Finance Minister Willis: Appoints Anna Breman as new governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Breman was nominated for the role by the Reserve Bank board following a worldwide search in which 300 potential candidates were identified. Breman has been appointed for a term of five years.

Hong Kong went into lockdown on Tuesday as Super Typhoon Ragasa — the world’s strongest storm this year — approached. Authorities urged residents to remain indoors, with most passenger flights suspended until Thursday. Panic buying swept through the city, leaving supermarket shelves nearly empty as people stocked up on essentials in anticipation of two days

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is not going to cut interest rates at the next meeting with this sort of data flashing across the terminals: Australian monthly CPI (August 2025) +3% (expected 2.9%, prior 2.8%) Read that post, the trimmed mean was a bit better. But kep in mind that the Australian government and

Japanese PM contender Hayashi: Must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending, keep sending out signal to markets Japan will maintain fiscal discipline Japanese PM contender Takaichi: Will use tax revenues to fund tax cut, spending for steps to combat rising prices but if necessary, should issue bonds Should be mindful of risk of causing

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned that tariffs could carry modest inflationary effects and add pressure to the U.S. economy. Speaking on the broader implications of trade policy, Dimon said the impact of tariffs is unlikely to be limited to a one-off price shock. Instead, he argued, the costs are more likely

We had the unconfirmed reports of an appointment coming up of new Governor of the RBNZ: New Zealand to announce the new RBNZ governor as soon as Wednesday See that post for details, and gender reveal! New Zealand Finance minister Willis will make the announcement at 1pm New Zealand time on Wednesday, September 24, 2025:

China’s securities regulator has informally told some domestic brokerages to pause real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation businesses in Hong Kong, sources told Reuters. The move highlights Beijing’s caution over a rush into digital asset markets offshore, even as Hong Kong promotes itself as a hub for tokenised products, stablecoins, and virtual asset trading. RWA tokenisation converts

A recent global survey from Revalize shows that a growing number of manufacturers are exiting the U.S. market amid tariff pressures, economic unpredictability, and rising compliance costs. Roughly one in five international manufacturers have withdrawn operations or scaled back presence in the U.S. over the past year, putting America among the top three countries from

U.S. stocks began the week on a firm footing, but Citadel Securities is warning investors not to overlook a seasonal rough patch for equities. Scott Rubner, Citadel’s head of equity and equity derivatives strategy, wrote in a recent note that the 39th trading week of the year — which began Monday — has historically been

Nomura Asset Management struck a cautiously optimistic tone on Japan’s stock market for the rest of 2025, telling reporters in London that attractive valuations support its outlook into 2026. The firm pointed to ongoing corporate governance reforms as a key driver of long-term opportunity, adding that further improvements remain possible. Executives also welcomed last month’s

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, speaking at Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership (STEP) at 1430 Eastern time / 1830 GMT Last week the BoC trimmed rates by 25bp: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: There was a clear consensus to cut by 25 basis points This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese PM contender and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: BOJ is conducting monetary policy in way that does not deviate much from Govt thinking Japan’s past aversion to strong yen has diminished, when asked about risk Fed rate cut prospects could push up yen vs dollar, hurt Japan’s export-reliant economy Weak yen, coupled with rising oil

Goldman Sachs Asset Management said it does not expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates again this year, citing persistent inflation and signs of resilience in the labour market. The firm noted that, while headline price pressures have eased, underlying inflation remains sticky enough to keep policymakers cautious. In addition, evidence that the

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking from the Australian parliament Earlier: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock says tightness remains in labour market More: In a very good position on inflation Risks on both sides for inflation Will still rely very heavily on the quarterly Australian CPI report Seeing private demand respond, very

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock Recent interest rate cuts are expected to support spending by households and businesses. Labour market conditions are close to full employment. Recovery in household consumption growth is forecast to be sustained as real incomes continue to grow. Since the August meeting, domestic data have been broadly in line with

The Bank of Japan has outlined a plan to gradually reduce its massive ¥75 trillion ($507 billion) holdings of exchange-traded funds, a longstanding overhang for local equities. While markets initially sold off on the announcement, the scale and pace of the sell-down — roughly ¥620 billion a year, spread across a century — reassured investors,

People’s Bank of China injects 300bn yuan through 14-day reverse repos. On Friday the Bank announced it’d be shifting the 14-dayers to: fixed amounts rate bidding timing and scale to respond to liquidity needs And, indeed, the PBOC says today’s 14-day reverse repo operation was conducted through fixed-volume, interest-rate bidding with multiple-price allocation. A 14-day

People’s Bank of China sets its 1 and 5 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) rates unchanged. The PBOC uses the reverse reop rate as its main policy rate now. Currently 1.4%. Most lending in China is tied to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing. Both rates were last trimmed by 10

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UBS Group strategists have lifted their dollar-yen forecasts, now seeing USD/JPY at 143 by the end of 2025 and 140 by the end of 2026, compared with 130 previously. The revision reflects rising political uncertainty in Japan, which UBS says has helped keep the Bank of Japan more dovish than markets once expected. While investors

Mon: PBoC LPR, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Sep) Tue: Riksbank Announcement, EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Sep) Wed: CNB Announcement, Australian CPI (Aug), German Ifo Survey (Sep) Thu: SNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement, BoJ Minutes, PBoC MLF, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Oct), US Durable Goods (Aug), US GDP (Q2), US PCE (Q2) Fri: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Sep), US

Yannis Stournaras is the Governor of the Bank of Greece and thus a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council (monetary policy setting committee). Speaking in Copenhagen, Stournaras said the ECB is probably done cutting interest rates, unless there is a meaningful deterioration in inflation or growth. Stournaras explained that while inflation is forecast

It was another big day and week of gains for US equity markets as they continue to post a strong September. S&P 500 +0.5% Nasdaq Comp +0.7% DJIA +0.4% Russell 2000 -0.7% Toronto TSX Comp +1.0% On the week: S&P 500 +1.2% Nasdaq Comp+2.2% Russell 2000 +2.2% Toronto TSX Comp +1.6% This article was written

The dip was bought again. The S&P 500 is trading up 28 points, or 0.4%, to 6660, which is a new record high and also 10x from the financial crisis low. I have clear memories of that time and it’s amazing that the market has climbed ten fold since then. There isn’t much standing in

Gold is at the highs of the day, up $38 to $3681 which nearly brings it back to where it was trading minutes before the FOMC decision. It’s also just $20 from the all-time high. This week was a test for gold as it was hit by a somewhat hawkish Fed and higher Treasury yields.

The The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q3 is now 2.10%, which is fractionally higher than 2.08% last week. The Philly and Empire Fed surveys essentially cancelled each other out while the retail sales numbers added a slight lift. The advance reading on Q3 isn’t due until Oct 30 so there is much data

The latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors is something of a red flag for equity markets. Sentiment in the survey jumped to jumped to 41.7% from 28.0%. That’s the biggest one-week surge since January and also the highest reading since the July 3rd peak at 45.0%, which was the high of the

Canada’s Trade Mininister Dominic LeBlanc said expects to go to Washington, DC for trade talks in the next two weeks. That comment helped to lift the Canadian dollar in today’s North American session. USD/CAD is down 23 pips to 1.3768 and that has the loonies as the top performing G10 currency today. In the past

Oil rigs up 2 Natural gas rigs up 1 I guess $62 oil isn’t enough to stop the drilling. Word is that Exxon is the only company really spending this year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Jobs market has softened quite a bit of the last year Daly is speaking on AI implications for the workforce. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Adding a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas would have big consequences across immigration, labor markets, and business strategy. Smaller employers would almost entirely stop filing along with outsourcing firms. Even large tech companies could sharply reduce numbers, using visas only for extremely scarce roles. This type of visa is a work permit that allows employers

SEC to propose rule change to end quarterly earnings reports Canada July retail sales -0.8% vs versus 1.5% expected Fed’s Kashkari: Becoming more confidence that tariff impact on inflation will be temporary Fed’s Daly: Rate cut was to try to support the labor market Fed’s Miran: Falling home prices will drive disinflation Baker Hughes US

Shanghai Securities News wrote that the Fed’s rate cut reduces the dollar’s dominance and reshapes global flows—a backdrop that gives Beijing more flexibility on policy. Analysts say that could include scope for rate or RRR adjustments, though the PBoC is likely to time any move carefully. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Trump’s administration is considering a sweeping program to boost U.S. manufacturing, according to documents and people familiar with the talks says a Wall Street Journal report (gated). The plan would tap a $550 billion fund created during trade negotiations with Japan to invest in sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, energy, shipbuilding, and

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China’s yuan poses a greater challenge for Europe than for the U.S., noting the currency has weakened sharply against the euro while holding relatively firm against the dollar. Speaking in Madrid after trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, Bessent said U.S. tariffs have cut America’s trade deficit

Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed to 2.7% y/y in August, matching forecasts and easing from 3.1% in July, though still above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. An index that strips out both fresh food and fuel — closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation — rose 3.3% y/y, down slightly from 3.4% in

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Bitcoin $1 million? Coin Telegraph asks the question. I’ve summarized: Bitcoin has hit record highs few expected. Key drivers include the launch of spot ETFs in 2024, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust attracting $1.3bn in two days, and U.S. President Trump’s March 2025 order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve of 200,000 BTC. Optimism peaked at

Japan CPI data for August 2025: National CPI ex. fresh food & energy (core-core): 3.3% y/y (expected 3.3%, prior 3.4%) … this strips away the effect of fresh food and energy — National CPI ex. fresh food (core): 2.7% y/y (expected 2.7%, prior 3.1%) … core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Canada’s Prime Minister Carney said Ottawa and Mexico remain committed to a shared partnership with the United States, underscoring the importance of trilateral cooperation in North America. As part of that effort, Canada and Mexico will launch a new bilateral security dialogue, aimed at deepening collaboration on cross-border threats, law enforcement, and regional stability. The

Asian currencies held steady against the dollar in early trade, with National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril noting that risk appetite may provide support. He said markets have reassessed the Fed’s stance more positively, viewing Chair Powell’s “meeting by meeting” guidance as prudent. Overnight U.S. data pointed to labour market resilience and improving business sentiment, reinforcing

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) adjusts its interest rates in line with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decisions primarily because of the linked exchange rate system between the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the United States Dollar (USD). Established in 1983, this system pegs the HKD to the USD within a narrow band, currently at

Australian labour market report Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Employment Change -5.4K, a poor result expected 22.0K, prior 24.5K Participation Rate 66.8%, lower participation has prevented the jopbless rate from rising expected 67%, prior 67% Part-Time Employment +35.5K prior -35.9K Full-Time Employment -40.9K, terrible number prior 60.5K While the headline jobless rate is

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan core machine orders data for July 2025. These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set. -4.6% m/m expected -1.7%, prior 3.0% +4.9% y/y expected +5.4%, prior +7.6% The y/y headline flattered the data, that m/m is terrible. – The Bank of

At Meta Connect 2025, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled the company’s new Meta Ray-Ban Display smart glasses, a next-generation wearable that blends a camera with a built-in display to deliver true augmented reality. The $799 device, available from September 30 in black or sand with transition lenses, is being positioned as Meta’s answer to the long-defunct Google

Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to step up its easing cycle, forecasting the Official Cash Rate will be lowered to 2.5% at the October meeting and then cut again to 2.25% in November. 50bp cut followed by a 25bp cut The bank said the RBNZ faces mounting pressure to loosen policy

The data is here: Australia August 2025 jobless rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected) While that headline look fine, it’s the loss of jobs, 5.4K vs. the gain of 22K that was expected, along with the big losses in fulltime jobs, down 40.9K that has taken a toll on the Australian dollar. It’s a very weak

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The data from New Zealand was very disappointing indeed: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.9% q/q (vs. -0.3% expected) -0.9% is three times worse than what was expected. Its prompted forecasts for more interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Westpac tipping 75cp soon: Westpac forecasts Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts

Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the Federal Reserve to extend its easing cycle with quarter-point cuts in both October and December, following Wednesday’s reduction. The firm said the skew of the Fed’s dot plot points to a steady pace of easing, underscoring policymakers’ confidence that inflation is trending lower and that growth risks are rising.

The European Chamber of Commerce in China said at least one of its members has lost “millions of euros” due to Beijing’s strict controls on rare-earth exports, which still lack a consistent licensing process. China dominates the global rare-earth supply chain, accounting for nearly 70% of production and close to half of global reserves, giving

Société Générale’s Subadra Rajappa warned that U.S. stocks could retreat if the Federal Reserve proves less dovish than investors expect. Speaking on CNBC, she said “you could see an unwind” if markets sense the Fed is unwilling to cut rates as aggressively as priced in. – If the Fed’s dot plot signals fewer cuts than

Info comes via analysts at Australia’s Westpac Bank. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dropped back to -0.16% in August from +0.11% in July. First below-trend reading since late 2024. Recovery still

BofA analysts highlighted that investment demand for bullion has grown so strongly that it now exceeds central bank Treasury holdings, underscoring gold’s appeal as both a hedge and a portfolio anchor. Even so, they warn that sentiment looks crowded, leaving the metal vulnerable to shifts in Fed policy or market expectations. The immediate catalyst is

Fed FOMC rate cut expectations (Statement due on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 2pm US Eastern time, 1800 GMT). Most banks lean toward a 25 bps trim, but a couple of houses see the Fed moving faster with a 50 bps cut. 25 bps cut (consensus view): BMO Barclays CIBC Goldman Sachs JPMorgan Morgan Stanley

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

This data was out earlier, doing a catch up now. Exports -0.1% y/y, fall for 4th straight month expected -1.9%, prior -2.6% Imports -5.2% y/y expected -4.2%, prior -7.4% Trade Balance -242.5bn yen expected -513.6bn, prior -118.4bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) -11.30% y/y in August expected +0.1%, prior -4.7% -8.9% m/m (prior -6%) declines across both electronics and non-electronics shipments exports to the U.S., China and Indonesia fell sharply, including a 28.8% drop to the U.S. where Singapore faces a 10% tariff despite its free-trade agreement The weakness highlights pressure from

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan’s exports fell for a fourth straight month in August as higher U.S. tariffs weighed heavily on automakers and manufacturers. Exports to the U.S. plunged 13.8% year-on-year, the sharpest drop since early 2021, with automobiles down 28.4% and chipmaking equipment tumbling nearly 39%. Mizuho Research’s Saisuke Sakai noted that while some automakers have absorbed tariff

Lisa Cook WILL attend the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A U.S. appeals court has rejected Trump’s bid to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The court also denied a Justice Department request to pause a lower court ruling that blocks Trump from removing her. The decision clears the way for Cook

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration will not impose new tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil purchases unless Europe takes similar action. He told Reuters and Bloomberg that European governments must “do their share” to cut Moscow’s energy revenues, criticising both direct imports of Russian crude and purchases of Indian refined

Swiss wacth maker Swatch with its commentary on Turmp’s 39% tariffs on Switzerland: WHAT IF…TARIFFS? features a square Bioceramic case and edge-to-edge biosourced glass that allows a side view of the watch’s dial. The blue square dial, complemented by an integrated biosourced strap, is adorned with glow-in-the-dark hands. The inversion of Arabic numerals 3 and

Citigroup has launched new forecasts for ether, setting a year-end base case of $4,300—slightly below current levels around $4,515. The bank’s range is wide, with a bull case at $6,400 and a bear case at $2,200, highlighting deep uncertainty around drivers of value. Analysts pointed to network activity as the key determinant for ETH’s valuation

Miran will also attend the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Senate approved Stephen Miran’s confirmation on a 48-47 vote will fill the seat that Adriana Kugler stepped down from last month will be the first executive-branch official to sit on the central bank’s board since 1935 Miran will be on the Board

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of America warns the latest surge in Chinese equities is unlikely to replicate last year’s explosive rally, when the CSI 300 Index jumped more than 30% in just weeks on a wave of stimulus-fuelled optimism. The benchmark has risen about 12% since early August to near a three-year high, but further gains may be

RBA’s Hunter says close to getting inflation to target Comments come from “Fireside Chat with Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, at the 2025 AFIA Conference” Close to getting inflation to target Risks around the outlook are balanced Monetary policy impact with a delay, have to be forward looking Consumption is looking better, position beginning to

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo is pleased with the consistent implementation of its tariff agreement with the United States, underscoring the deal as a sign of stable economic cooperation between the two countries. Hayashi noted that both governments have maintained their commitments under the pact so far, which is designed to smooth

Via a Standard Chartered not from last week ICYMI: Stan Chart has doubled its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, now predicting a 50-basis-point rate cut instead of the 25 bps reduction it previously expected. The shift comes after weak August jobs data showed payrolls slowing sharply and unemployment climbing to 4.3%, the highest

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Deposits rose by 600bn yuan less YoY in August, likely as long-term deposits matured and funds shifted into the stock market. Non-bank deposits surge: Up ¥1.18tn in August, ¥550bn more YoY — suggesting household money moved into brokerage margin accounts and equity mutual funds. Wealth management products grew only slightly (¥150bn less than a year

Chinese New House Prices -0.3% m/m in August prior -0.3% -2.5% y/y prior -2.8% Used home prices -0.58% m/m prior -0.55% — More: New home prices in first-tier cities -0.9% YoY in August prior -1.1% prices up in Shanghai, down in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities -3.5% YoY in August

Earlier: People’s Bank of China’s yuan strength set to fuel EM currency rally as Fed easing looms — People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB).

US President Trump with some comments: willing to impose sanctions on Russia Europe has toughen sanctions, should be commensurate with those levied by the US Europe should avoid purchasing oil from Russia says Fed Chair Powell is incompetent, is hurting the housing market has three people he likes for Fed Chair This article was written

Goldman Sachs has warned that a slowdown in artificial intelligence investment could wipe as much as 20% off U.S. stock market valuations. Analyst Ryan Hammond wrote that if long-term growth expectations revert to early 2023 levels, the S&P 500’s multiple would face 15–20% downside. AI spending is currently strong, but Hammond noted some analysts expect

UK Rightmove House Prices September: +0.4% m/m prior –1.3% House Prices -0.1% y/y, first y/y drop since January 2024 prior +0.3% The UK Rightmove House Price survey measures asking prices for homes put up for sale in the month. Reuters adds on rents: separate survey from Zoopla showed average rental prices were 2.4% higher in

In a note on Friday last week Deutsche Bank shifted its outlook, now expecting the Fed to deliver three 25-bps cuts this year, one at each of the September, October and December meetings. This compares with its earlier view of just two cuts in September and December. The bank’s U.S. chief economist, Matthew Luzzetti, said

more to come Industrial Production +5.2% y/y, a miss and lower than the rise in July expected +5.8%, prior was 5.7% Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD +0.5% y/y, a big miss expected 1.4%, prior was 1.6% Retail Sales +3.4% y/y, a big miss expected 3.8%, prior was 3.7% Unemployment rate 5.3% up from July’s 5.2%

Mon: Chinese Activity Data (Aug) Tue: UK Jobs Report (Jul), Italian CPI Final (Aug), EZ Industrial Production (Jul), German ZEW Survey (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug) and Industrial Production (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug) Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Aug), EZ CPI Final (Aug), New

Yesterday I wrote about the breakout in Tesla shares: At the moment, earnings simply don’t matter and this chart shows a nice looking series of higher lows that could be capped by a return the 2024 highs. Given the parabolic move in Oracle shares yesterday, I would certainly be wary of being short. Sure enough,

The FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will be the main focus next week. Alongside the Fed, three other central banks will also announce policy decisions: the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady.

Microsoft’s shares are on the run to the upside today after a series of positive catalysts. The company extended its partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing its leadership in AI investments tied to ChatGPT and Azure. It also settled with the European Commission on long-running antitrust issues related to Teams, easing regulatory pressure by offering Office 365

Treasury yields are 3-6 basis points higher on the day and that initially gave the US dollar a lift today but it’s fading. The dollar has been under some modest pressure since the softer UMich consumer sentiment data. That’s helped boost the euro to 1.1737 from 1.1712. There are similar 20-30 pip moves elsewhere and

The NATO chief has called the incursion ‘absolutely reckless’ but very few are calling for any kind of retaliation. Russia’s UN envoy today says it was ‘physically impossible’ for a Russian drone to have reached Polish territory. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US stock market futures were flat ahead of the open and that’s pretty much where they finished. There was a brief rise to a fresh intraday record high late in the day but that faded and the S&P 500 closed down 3 points to 6584, ending a four-day winning streak. The Nasdaq closed modestly higher,

Blackrock’s Rick Rieder has evidently made the long list of Fed candidates and he impressed Scott Bessent, according to a Bloomberg report. I don’t think it’s any surprise that Rieder said the Fed ‘should’ cut by 50 basis points at the upcoming meeting and maybe that’s why he got the interview (or the praise). The

It’s a big week for Canada with CPI and a Bank of Canada rate decision on deck. Here’s what’s coming up: Monday, Sept 15 • 8:30 am ET: July manufacturing shipments (consensus +1.8% m/m after +0.3% previously) • 8:30 am ET: Wholesale sales ex-petroleum (Jul, +1.3% expected) • 9:00 am ET: Existing home sales (Aug,

ECB Nagel is saying: More rate cuts could threaten price stability The ECB kept rates unchanged yesterday at their meeting. Overnight, a number of ECB officials spoke the “day-after” the interest rate decision where the central bank keep rates unchanged for the 2nd consecutive month: Rehn cautioned that downside risks to inflation remain, particularly from

What’s up next week? Central Bank decisions highlighted by the FOMC rate decision Rick Reider said to have climbed the ranks for role of Fed chair Tesla shares continue yesterday’s breakout with 7% surge The US dollar sags as we count down to Fed week Microsoft Technicals. Microsoft rebounds as shares retest key resistance at

Bessent to travel to Spain, UK from September 12–18 on trip that includes government, private sector meetings in London Bessent, China’s He to discuss key US-China national security, economic and trade issues, including TikTok and anti money-laundering cooperation Bessent to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, other senior Chinese officials next week in Madrid

Ex-Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein warned the U.S. is “due” for another crisis, pointing to hidden risks in credit markets such as narrow spreads and leveraged private credit. Still, he remains bullish, citing Fed rate cuts and the transformative potential of AI, and says he’s fully invested in equities—aligning with Goldman’s call for a new secular

Westpac have a detailed note out with what the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is facing at next week’s meeting. It’s a complex picture, I’ve tried to summarise: US labour market and inflation — key takeaways Weak August jobs data Nonfarm payrolls rose just 22k in August. June/July revised down by 21k.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The US and Japan finance ministers reaffirmed their G7 commitments on currency policy, stressing exchange rates should remain market-driven, with intervention limited to disorderly markets and operations disclosed monthly. Japan’s Finance Minister Kato said the joint statement was especially significant in light of the new US tariff order, while noting there were no talks with

China commerce ministry: Planned Mexican tariffs on China to seriously affect Mexico’s business environment Reduce confidence of enterprises in investing in Mexico China to take “necessary measures” to safeguard “legitimate rights and interests China responding to: Mexico slaps 50% tariffs on Chinese cars amid U.S. pressure, $52bn impact This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The US and Japan finance ministers reaffirmed their G7 commitments on currency policy, stressing exchange rates should remain market-driven. They pledged to avoid manipulation, limit intervention to disorderly markets, and disclose FX operations monthly. Japan–US finance ministers’ joint statement highlights The US Treasury and Japan’s Ministry of Finance reaffirmed their partnership and agreed to continue

Morgan Stanley says the British pound is more vulnerable to large capital flows than investors often assume, behaving more like smaller, less liquid currencies such as the Swiss franc or New Zealand dollar than the euro or yen. While $1 billion trades barely move the Japanese or European currencies, the same volume can shift sterling

Japan’s Hayashi announces plan to lower price cap on Russian oil – info via Reuters. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says the plan will come into effect Friday. Awaiting a little more detail on this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, with inflation now closely aligned to the bank’s 2% target. Policymakers see little urgency to adjust policy in the near term, but lingering concerns around global trade tensions and political uncertainty mean the door to further easing remains open.

At 11:15am New Zealand time (2315 GMT, 1915 US Eastern time), Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby will provide brief remarks at the Financial Services Council’s annual conference: will discuss the August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and the Capital Review consultation The RBNZ says that “No new information will be provided regarding economic

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan August 2025 PPI. +2.7% y/y, up from July expected 2.7%, prior 2.6 -0.2% m/m expected -0.1%, prior +0.2% – At the same time was Japan’s business survey for Q3, comes in at +3.8% for the large manufacturing index prior -4.8% The non manufacturing index was +5.2% from prior -0.5% – AKA Corporate Goods Price

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ house price balance, measures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices, RICS August house price balance fell to -19 from -13 in July, weakest since Jan 2024 and below economists’ forecast of -10. New buyer enquiries dropped to -17 (from -7), lowest since

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korean customs agency with the data for the first third of the month: exports +3.8% y/y Trade balance at provisional $-1.23 bln imports +11.1% y/y Meanwhile South Korea and the US are in discussions over the detaining of South Korea workers in the US after a U.S. immigration raid saw 475 workers rounded up

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby will provide brief remarks at the Financial Services Council’s annual conference: says the central projection for the OCR is to fall to around 2.50% by the end of the year but that could occur faster or slower depending on how the economic recovery evolves RBNZ faces a

Via the Wall Street Journal, a table of what is expected for the US CPI data due on Thursday, September 11, 2025. I posted a preview via Goldman Sachs yesterday ICYMI: US CPI data – Goldman Sachs preview: sees tariffs fuelling August core CPI above 3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has authorised the country’s banks to expand their use of cryptocurrencies in a bid to counter the impact of international sanctions and shore up the struggling economy. At a meeting with central and commercial bank leaders, Lukashenko called for urgent action to treat digital assets as strategic tools to stabilise and

A US member of Congress has harsh words on Russian actions in Poland: Russia is attacking NATO ally Poland with Iranian shahed drones less than a week after President Trump hosted President Nawrocki at the White House. This is an act of war, and we are grateful to NATO allies for their swift response to

Oracle’s latest quarterly earnings and revenue fell short of analyst forecasts, but the stock still soared after-hours as investors focused on massive cloud growth projections and new contracts. CEO Safra Catz said the company signed four multibillion-dollar deals in the fiscal first quarter, lifting remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion — up 359% from

Chinese insurers have lifted their equity holdings to the highest level in more than three years, responding to Beijing’s push to support a steady bull market. Report comes via Bloomberg. Regulatory data show holdings rose by 640 billion yuan ($90 billion) in the first half of 2025 to 3.1 trillion yuan, or 8.5% of total

Deutsche Bank lifted its 2025 S&P 500 earnings forecast to $277 per share, up from $267, after a stronger-than-expected Q2 reporting season. Analysts cited resilient company commentary around tariff headwinds and slightly better macro growth prospects. On the back of the earnings upgrade, the bank raised its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,000. This

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

CPI and PPI data from China for August 2025 China moving further into deflation. Despite ongoing stimulus efforts, admittedly incremental. CPI YY -0.4%, largest year-on-year drop in six months expected -0.2%, prior 0.0% for m/m 0% (expected +0.1%, prior +0.4%) PPI YY -2.9%, smallest year-on-year decline in four months expected -2.9%, prior -3.6% for m/m

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian goods, according to U.S. and EU officials. The move, conveyed in a call with EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan, is part of a U.S. push to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin by targeting two of

Residents in Eastern Poland are urged to shelter-in-place by the Polish Armed Forces. Translated text: Attention, during today’s attack by the Russian Federation carrying out strikes on targets located in the territory of Ukraine, our airspace was repeatedly violated by drone-type objects. An operation is underway aimed at identifying and neutralizing the objects. On the

Japanese manufacturers’ confidence climbed to its strongest level in more than three years in September, supported by easing trade tensions after Tokyo struck a tariff deal with Washington in July. The Reuters Tankan survey showed the manufacturers’ index rose to +13 from +9 in August, marking a third straight monthly gain and the highest since

Lumber prices have slumped sharply, raising concerns on Wall Street about the health of the housing market and broader economy. Futures have tumbled 24% since early August, when they touched a three-year high, settling at $526.50 per thousand board feet on Monday. The decline was partially cushioned after two of North America’s largest sawmills said

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

China’s Ministry of Commerce said in-depth discussions were held on bilateral trade relations and regional economic cooperation with Canada. The talks included China’s chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and Parliamentary Secretary to the Canadian Prime Minister Kody Blois. The meeting underscored Beijing’s engagement with both federal and provincial Canadian leaders as

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei share index hit 44,000 new record high PM Ishiba resigned over the weekend. Yesterday: Japan’s Topix has risen to its highest ever Yen may weaken as Japan leadership change clouds BOJ outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia August 2025 business conditions 7 5 in July 7 is the long run average for this measure Business confidence 4 vs. 8 in July 4 is close to the long run trend for this Some of the sub measures: business sales unchanged at +12 in August profitability up 2 points to +4 employment rebounded

I posted this earlier: Heads up – Expect a series of tweets from Trump soon after Epstein revelation be wary of some sort of action from Trump in the hours ahead to distract from Epstein revelations could be tweets could me more overt action such as some sort of military move While the USD has

Australia September 2025 Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence drops back from recent 3.5 year highs. down 3.1% m/m to 95.4 was +5.7% in August to its highest since early 2022 Reading under 100 means pessimists still outnumber optimists. WPAC comment: Outright optimism remains elusive cost-of-living crisis may be largely over and policy easing generating some uplift

The Long-Term Stock Exchange (LTSE) plans to petition the Securities and Exchange Commission to scrap quarterly earnings reports and instead let companies report twice a year, according to the Wall Street Journal (gated). LTSE argues the change would cut costs, reduce the administrative burden of earnings calls, and allow executives to focus on long-term strategy

The news from Monday out of France: French PM Bayrou loses confidence vote in national assembly The euro briefly wobbled on that but ultimately rose. The political turmoil in France is not yet over. Presdeint MAcron is searching for an acceptable new PM. If he can’t find one accepatable to the factions sharing power then

Japanese equites are solidly higher in morning trade. The Topix has hit a record high. Nikkei 225 is up 1.4%. PM Ishiba’s resignation has been greeted with relief by equity markets. The yen has fallen, making Japanese equities cheaper for offshore investors. GBP/JPY is hitting a 12-month high, as is EUR/JPY. Yen is off to

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

An enhanced-liquidity auction in Japan is when the government reissues existing JGBs to boost the supply of particular maturities that are in demand. Unlike regular auctions of new issues, these sales are aimed at improving secondary-market liquidity, ensuring smoother trading conditions and more stable yields across the curve. When Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) does

Revised economic growth data from Japan for the April to June quarter of 2025 comes in better than the flash reading for the data did. GDP Annualized (QoQ): 2.2% Expected: 1.0% Previous: 1.0% GDP (QoQ): 0.5% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.3% GDP Private Consumption (QoQ): 0.4% Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% private consumption accounts for more than

Japan’s economy grew more strongly than first estimated in Q2, extending its expansion streak to five consecutive quarters. Revised data showed real GDP rising at an annualised 2.2% pace, double the initial 1% estimate, with quarterly growth at 0.5%. Consumption and capital expenditure were both revised higher, though capex was softer than initially reported. The

Goldman Sachs says OPEC+ decision to start gradually unwinding the 1.65 mb/d of cuts likely primarily reflects that OECD commercial stocks remain low says it keeps its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025, close to the forwards, and for the 2026 average at $56/$52 “Risks to our 2025–2026 price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly

President Donald Trump urged foreign companies operating in the U.S. to respect immigration laws and prioritise hiring and training Americans after federal agents raided Hyundai’s battery plant in Georgia last week. The raid led to the arrest of about 475 workers, including roughly 300 South Koreans now being repatriated. Writing on Truth Social, Trump said

China’s leadership is growing concerned that loose monetary policy is fuelling an overheated stock rally, raising the risk that the People’s Bank of China may delay fresh easing measures. Regulators are wary of repeating the 2015 equity market crash, which wiped out $6.8 trillion in value. While some economists still anticipate a modest rate cut

MUFG Bank strategist Michael Wan warned the yen could remain weak in the near term following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to step down. The choice of successor will be key for market direction: Sanae Takaichi, from the LDP’s conservative wing, is viewed as yen-negative given her backing for easy monetary policy and fiscal stimulus,

It’s a bull market in many markets at the moment but certainly not in oil, which is likely to get more bad news on Sunday. Initial reports about Saudi Arabia pushing for a further production hike circulated on Friday and lowered crude by $1.51 but it’s likely to fall even more if/when the hike is

The stock market is struggling to decide on whether it likes rate cuts enough to ignore a weakening economy. I highlighted earlier that there are 135 bps in cuts priced in over the next year and 155 bps through 2026. That gets rates below 3% and feels like ‘peak Fed pricing’ or something close. The

You can put that gold chart in the technical analysis text book, at least so far. Gold has been in a long-term bull market, almost a parabolic one from $2000 post-pandemic. After spiking to a record $3500 in April, it took a break and consolidated for five months. Now that it’s clear the Fed is

There was something of a random walk down Wall Street today but it ended in the red-ink districts. The jobs report was poor and initially the market took that as good news due to more rate cuts being priced in. Later, that sentiment reversed and recession fears hit, leading to a sizeable swing to the

Some comments on TV: We’re open to criticism but totally opposed to taking away independence Anyone who joins the FOMC will take the job seriously This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The euro has been one of the beneficiaries of a weakening US dollar following another soft non-farm payrolls report. It’s up 96 pips to 1.1745 and touched as high as 1.1759. That’s a fresh high since July 27 and looks like a breakout from the recent period of consolidation, particularly if it can close above

RBC economist Claire Fan is out with a review of today’s soft Canadian jobs report. Jobs fell by 66K after a 41K decline in July in what’s clearly a worsening picture. She notes that the weakness mirrors a softening picture in the US. Fan highlights that unemployment at 7.1% is the highest in a decade

All aboard the rate-cut train. A soft US jobs report wasn’t bad enough to prompt recessions fears and instead the market is cheering on a more-dovish rate path for the Fed. There is now 134 bps in easing priced in, which gets the Fed close to 3%. What I worry is that we’re close to

There are some modest bids that have crept in over the past hour but the S&P 500 is still down 26 points, or 0.4%. All week long there have been strong bids into the close so let’s see if we can get a repeat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It was a soggy start for European stocks this month as most indexes sagged this month. The DAX tried to recover mid-week but never made it and today’s selling put it near the lows of the week. Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.2% German DAX -0.85% France CAC -0.4% UK FTSE 100 -0.1%

August US non-farm payrolls +22K vs +75K expected Canada August employment change -65.5K vs +10.0K expected Fed’s Goolsbee: We’re open to criticism on improving Fed decision making Timiraos: Soft jobs report will make it easier for Fed to agree on 25 bps cut Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to speed up next oil production boost US

OpenAI set to start mass production of its own AI chips with U.S. semiconductor giant Broadcom The chip co-designed with US semiconductor giant Broadcom, would ship next year chip to be used internally at OpenAI rather than make it available to external customers The Financial Times has the report, gated, citing people familiar with the

Japan data, overall household spending was higher than expected and notably higher than in June July household spending +1.7% m/m (expected +1.3%, prior -5.2%) July household spending +1.4% y/y (expected +2.3%, prior +1.3%) Wages up solidly also: July overtime pay +3.3% y/y (prior +0.56%) July total cash earnings +4.1% y/y (expected 3.0%, prior +3.1%) July

Say what you like about Trump, he plays the media very astutely. Trump levied tariffs on autos from Japan at 27.5% On Thursday, US time, he signed an order with the tariffs now at 15% instead. I have seen plenty of headlines, including from reputable financial media, loudly hailing that Trump has lowered tariffs on

President Trump’s son Eric says he’ll be making “a big announcement” Friday. I’m guessing crypto related. This seems to be where the family is harvesting substantial amounts of money from. Only a guess though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fixed interest moves still swinging: 10 year UST yield around 4.1569%, its lowest since May 1 2 year circa 3.5837%, ditto on lowest since May 1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated Q&A before an mHub Industry Disruptor Series event, in Chicago. Labor market might be deteriorating Inflation might be picking back up There is a bit of wait and see because of the uncertainty Rates are better indicators for labor market than raw job

Oil prices extended their decline, by a tiny margin, for a third straight session on Friday as traders awaited an OPEC+ meeting this weekend that could decide on fresh output hikes. Eight OPEC members and partners including Russia are set to discuss raising production in October, sources told Reuters. Such a move would begin unwinding