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A week ago today, the USDCHF made a break to the upside and out of the “Red Box” that had confined the pair going back to August 20. The US jobs report was the catalyst for the move higher, but by Monday, the price fell back to the high of that “red box” and even

Prior 0.0%GDP +1.0% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior +1.2%; revised to +0.9%Services +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedIndustrial output +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedManufacturing output +1.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedConstruction output +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected After flattish growth in June and July, UK GDP is estimated to grow marginally in August. All main sectors posted growth

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction. The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the

The USDCAD has been trending to the upside since bottoming on October 2 near 1.3472. The momentum over the last eight trading days has taken the price up to a high of 1.37826. That took the price to the low of the next swing area target between 1.3784 and 1.38036 (going back to April 2024

Bloomberg (gated) cite a note from Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan on Trump’s policy desire to weaken the US dollar. In brief: it conflicts with his tariff policy, theory predicts that the currency of a tariff-imposing country should appreciate following higher import dutiesTrump might use the US Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to influence

The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark rate earlier: Bank of Korea rate cut as expected, base rate to 3.25% from 3.5% More now from the Bank: The Bank of Korea will thoroughly assess trade-offs among inflation, growth, and financial stability.The South Korean economy is expected to continue moderate growth.The Bank of Korea will carefully

The Robotaxi on display at the event has no steering wheel, no pedals. Fully autonomous apparently. Musk says 50 built so far. TSLA shares have caught a bid. It probably doesn’t need to be said, but be careful of overhyped promises from events like these. Not saying Musk doesn’t get stuff done, he does, just

Prior month +22.1KUnemployment rate 6.5% vs 6.7% expectedPrior month employment rate 6.6%Full-time employment +112.0K vs -43.6K prior (largest since May 2022)Part-time employment -65.3K vs +65.7K priorParticipation rate 64.9% vs 65.1% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 4.5% vs 4.9% last monthPrivate sector employment +61KPublic sector employment -24K Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 53%

Doesn’t see convincing evidence that the economy is overheatingLet’s not overreact to “one number”Dot plots indicate that policymakers are of the view that inflation will move towards targetThe big picture is that inflation is “way down”, unemployment is at a level we are happy withThe difference between now and the 70s is that inflation expectations

Israel’s army said its killed top commander of Palestinian militant group Islamic JihadElon Musk just unveiled the Robotaxi at Tesla’s “We, Robot” eventTGI … more Fed speakers again today! Logan, Bowman, Goolsbee all on the agendaChina will follow up Saturday’s stimulus briefing with another on MondayMore rate cuts to come from the Bank of KoreaIKEA

I posted earlier: Bostic is at it again – suggests ‘totally comfortable’ with a November Fed pauseHere’s why you should wear a “Make Fed Speeches Great Again” hat Logan and Bowman are prime candidates for dropping ‘pause’ comments (IMO). None of the topics in any of these speeches seem conductive to remarks on the economy

The US PPI data came out and showed the YoY higher than expectations (but the headline was lower than the revised higher level), but the MoM data was more tame. The short end of the yield curve is a little lower. The long end, not so much. The US stocks are steady but lower on

It’s a mixed bag of consumer price data, with the annual inflation rate continuing to cool in September, reaching its lowest level in three years, though the report was slightly hotter than expected. The Labor Department reported on Thursday the consumer price index (CPI) — a broad measure of the cost of everyday items —

The US October consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan is coming up next and expected to tick up to 70.8 from 70.1. The problem with this report is that it’s badly skewed by politics and we’re at the height of the political cycle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1% This comes with US futures keeping flattish as well ahead of the open in Europe later. In Asia, Chinese indices are back down 2% as the volatile swings continue in trading this week. Overall, it’s just a slight tempering to the optimism from earlier

Elon Musk went back to his old playbook with the robotaxi event, teasing untried technology and mixing it with hype. The problem is that he routinely blows through deadlines by an order of magnitude and final pricing doesn’t resemble what was promised. There is no world where cybercabs are on the road in 2026. Shares

Mixed signals in tech as Tesla tumbles and financials rally The US stock market presents a diverse tapestry of performances today, influenced by varying sentiment across sectors. The heatmap showcases contrasting movements, with particular focus on tech volatility and financial gains. 📉 Semiconductor Weakness and Auto Woes Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector depicts declines, notably with

The S&P 500 is up 28 points, or 0.5%, to 5808 in a rise to a fresh record high. The jump at the open bucks futures that were negative shortly before the open. A big tailwind is in financials as J.P. Morgan shares rise 4.5% following earnings. Commentary in the conference call was moderately upbeat

The cruise into 2025 with two more Fed rate cuts has hit a bit of a (small) pothole. Firstly, that inflation data … it has raised eyebrows over the potential for reflationary pressure: hot numbers … US September CPI 2.4% y/y versus 2.3% expected0.554% gain for supercore was the 3rd largest monthly increase over the

As the NA session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. The USD is stronger ahead of the PPI and also the Canada employment report for September. The PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% for the headline and the 0.2% for the core (ex food and energy). The YoY

For me, this is a more-important report than today’s jobs data. Business Outlook Survey indicator remains negative, signaling widespread softness” demand is weak, firms have excess capacity, and price growth continues to slow” but little deterioration since last quarterFirms reported weak past sales growth due to past inflation and interest rate increases continuing to weigh

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction. The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the

Prior month 1.7% revised to 1.9%. YoY. Core 2.4% revised to 2.6%PPI MoM 0.0% for SeptemberPPI ex food and energy 0.2% vs 0.2% est.PPI ex food and energy and Trade YoY 3.2% vs 3.3% last monthPPI ex food and energy and trade MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% last month (revised from 0.3%) The YOY data was

IC Markets is excited to announce the launch of the highly anticipated fifth season of IC Your Trade (ICYT), produced in collaboration with Bloomberg Media Studios. This season brings a sharper focus on the latest market developments, offering traders timely insights to navigate the expected volatility in today’s dynamic financial landscape. Amid growing global uncertainty,

Discover how to apply the Wyckoff Theory in your trading to profit from bull and bear markets The post Wycoff Theory For Begineers (The Definitive Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Business NZ Manufacturing PMI Comes in at 46.9 for September 2024, thus remaining in contraction (its 19th straight month in contraction!) up for a third consecutive month and to its highest since April this yearprior revised a touch higher to 46.1 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: “while all sub-indices remain well below their historical average,

In case you missed the key headlines: US September CPI 2.4% y/y versus 2.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 258K vs 230K estimateFed’s Bostic says he’s open to pausing rate cut at the November meetingFed’s Goolsbee: Inflation came in around expectations, improvement on housingFed’s Williams: Expects that the economy will allow the Fed to cut furtherFed’s

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction. The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the

Headlines: More US data and Fed speak to keep markets interested as the week winds downWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PPI?A quiet start for major currencies so farFed’s Goolsbee: Inflation has cooled, labour market remains strongUK August monthly GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedGermany September final CPI +1.6% vs +1.6% y/y

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the USD got a boost from a higher than expected US CPI report but gave back the gains pretty quickly. There are two reasons for such a reaction. The first is that at the same time of the US CPI release we got the US Jobless Claims figures which jumped to the

Info via Reuters – IKEA calls for more China stimulus as sales slip IKEA urges China to deploy further economic stimulusChina accounted for 3.5% of Ingka Group’s global sales, down from 3.6%IKEA opened new Shanghai store in September, now has 39 stores in ChinaPrice cuts helped boost salesChina unveiled aggressive monetary stimulus package two weeks

The US inflation data released Thursday was higher than expected:; US September CPI 2.4% y/y versus 2.3% expectedForexlive Americas FX news wrap: US CPI higher than expected JP Morgan says watch the PPI report (due Friday) as it could also impact the core PCE inflating data (due late in October). JPM says the inflation figures

We’ve already had the news this week that China’s Finance Ministry will hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th at 10 am Beijing time: 0200 GMT 2200 US Eastern time News now that there will be follow up briefing on Monday from China’s Infrastructure Ministry, Ministry of Industry and

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is the country’s central bank. Its policy meeting is on Monday, October 14. MAS is expected to hold policy steady: 9 out of 10 analysts polled by Reuters expect MAS to keep policy unchanged at April 15 meetingInflation remains sticky at 2.7% y/y in August, down from 5.5% peak

US September CPI 2.4% y/y versus 2.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 258K vs 230K estimateFed’s Bostic open to pausing rate cut at the November meetingFed’s Goolsbee: Inflation came in around expectations, improvement on housingUS treasury auctions off $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.389%French budget watchdog says government 2025 growth

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% This comes with US futures also keeping little changed, with S&P 500 futures marginally lower by 4 points or 0.06%. That’s not leaving major currencies with much to work with as well, keeping in narrower ranges thus far. EUR/USD is flat

The AUDUSD fell to – and through the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.67146 late yesterday, but bounced higher in the Asian session today. The high price in the Asian session extended up to 0.67417 which was just short of the low of a swing area 0.67429. The subsequent

There is a light extension to the narrow range today with the pair now clipping 1.0950. That being said, it is still keeping within a ~23 pips range only for the day. There are some large option expiries as well at 1.0930 and 1.0950 that should likely keep price action locked, before we get to

The main highlight in the European session was the release of the UK GDP data. There’s nothing else on the agenda until the American session. That’s when we get the main events for today, that is the Canadian labour market report, the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET

The two key releases above will be ones to watch but after the bigger ones yesterday, it might be a tall order to trigger markets into moving really. As mentioned here, it seems that the bar is relatively low now for the Fed to move by 25 bps. And for a pause next month, the

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0930 and 1.0950 levels. If anything else, the expiries should help to keep price action more locked in that range in the session ahead. All that before we get to US trading of course, where

Major currencies aren’t showing much appetite with dollar pairs keeping lightly changed still in the opening hour in Europe. Here’s a snapshot of things so far on the day: Dollar pairs are pretty much keeping within 0.1% change with narrow ranges prevailing for the most part. Outside of USD/JPY, other dollar pairs are holding within

New Zealand data, adding to the awful PMI just released: New Zealand manufacturing PMI for September improves to a still dire 46.9 (prior 46.1) Bad dat from New Zealand is not a surprise, but a tick up in this inflation measure is not welcome. — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure

Bank of America analyzes FX flows and positioning at the end of Q3, highlighting a neutral stance on the USD while investors favored long positions in AUD and maintained shorts in CAD, CHF, and SEK. Key Points: Market Positioning: At the end of Q3, the market was neutral on USD, long on AUD, and short

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

A report in Walla News is weighing on oil. It says that: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden made significant progress during their phone call on Wednesday in reaching an understanding regarding the scope of Israel’s planned retaliatory action against Iran, according to three senior American and Israeli officials. It also says

Barclays analysts suggest that a potential Israeli strike on Iranian oil production or export infrastructure presents a binary risk to the global oil markets. Such an event could shrink the current excess in spare capacity, which has been exerting downward pressure on prices, while simultaneously introducing a considerable geopolitical risk premium. This dynamic, they note,

This via CNBC: After a decade of unfulfilled promises to deliver autonomous vehicles, capable of traveling reasonable distances safely without a human at the wheel, there’s a hefty dose of skepticism about what Tesla can do technologically, and when its robotaxi might actually hit the market.Robotaxi day, or “We, Robot,” event is scheduled to begin

Via AFP: Israel’s army says it has killed the top commander of Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad in the Nur Shams refugee camp in the occupied West Bank No further details as yet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.9%HICP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.0% The numbers are unchanged to the initial estimates with core annual inflation also reaffirmed at 2.7%, down slightly from 2.8% in August. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

After some pushing and pulling in US trading, the dollar is more or less back where it was before all the action. USD/JPY is one that is noticeably lower though, keeping at around 148.60 levels now. The roughly 40 pips range so far today is one of the smallest in recent weeks. And that speaks

None of this lot is likely to move major FX much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next

Dow Jones / Market Watch with the comments from ex-PIMCO Bill Gross, known as the “bond king.” suggests that the biggest gains from the U.S. stock market’s historic bull run are likely behind usanticipates that the S&P 500 will produce modest, low-single-digit returns for the fourth quarter of 2024 and beyond Advises investors to favour

Bank of Korea Base Rate cut to 3.25% expected 3.25%, prior 3.50% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Greg had the news during the US session, a Wall Street Journal interview with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic: September’s stronger-than-expected CPI and payroll reports suggest the need to be patient and possibly pause. This is a bit of an important ICYMI. Like I said, Bostic was the first to sound the

Hong Kong Exchnage is closed for a holiday today. Northbound and Southbound channels (Stock Connect) are closed. Mainland Chinese markets are open. — *** Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is one: a mutual market access program through which investors in each market can trade shares on the other market directlylaunched in 2014Northbound Trading allows international and

Major US stock indices are closing lower day after both the S&P and the Dow industrial average closed at record levels. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -57.92.2 or -0.14% at 42454.18S&P index -11.99 points or -0.21% at 5780.05.NASDAQ index -9.57 points or -0.05% at 18282.05. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -12.16 points

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The SEC has the cryptocurrency market in its crosshairs once again. Crypto.com received a Wells Notice from the US regulator then hit back with a lawsuit in order to defend itself. The SEC intends to sue the digital-asset exchange for allegedly operating as an unregistered broker-dealer and securities clearing agency. “The SEC’s unauthorized overreach and

High yield: 4.389%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.404%Tail -1.5 basis points basis points versus six-month average job 0.9 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.50X versus six-month average of 2 38XDirects (domestic buyers) 7.37% vs six-month average of 18.4%Indirect (international buyers): 80.47% versus six-month average of 65.4%Dealers: 12.16% versus six-month average job 16.2% Auction

Nick Timiraos in Walll Street Journal article interviews Fed’s Bostic who says: He is open to pausing a rate cut at the November meeting if economic data supports it.Bostic supported the half-point rate cut in the previous meeting.He penciled in a potential quarter-point cut by the end of the year, but is open to skipping

The US CPI data today was higher than expected with the headline up 0.2% versus 0.1% expected and the core of 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. That increase the year on year measures as well with the core up 3.3% YoY. Not good. On the other hand is that initial jobless claims equal that’s highest level

It’s not clear how much sway Washington even has with Israel at the moment. But it’s also clear that virtually no one outside of Israel (and maybe Texas) wants them to attack Iran’s oil infrastructure. Iran has promised to attack oil all over the region if it’s oil industry is attacked. Time will tell but

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The EURUSD moved lower and higher after the US data today, but the run to the upside ran out of steam near a key swing area between 1.09419 and 1.0949. The inability to get above that area started the move back to the downside. Getting below the 100-day moving average turned the buyers into sellers.

For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US CPI data due Thursday. Here are the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know) In the link below you can also find the distribution of forecasts which is another

If you are confused about the price action, you are not alone. However, technicals often tell the story of the price action, and if you can think of the price action as the dilemma buyers and sellers are facing, that story becomes more clear. IN the NZDUSD, we know the 61.8% was support. I talked

The pound is down a third of a cent today as the US dollar broadly strengthens following a hotter CPI report. The pair is trading at 1.3038. The pound is also slightly underperforming the euro and part of that might be a new report in The Guardian that says the new government is considering raising

Overall balance of risks is pretty good right now There is no hint here about any change of policy despite a better jobs report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese markets improved today after Beijing’s finance minister teased a Saturday briefing on potential economic measures. That’s helped to boost global growth trades including oil but if you look around markets, the other things correlated to growth aren’t nearly a strong as oil. Brent crude is up $3 to $79.60 in a strong rebound after

The US treasury will auction off $22 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. The 6-month averages of the major components shows: Tail 0.9 basis pointsBid to Cover 2 38XDirects (domestic buyers) 18.4%Indirect (international buyers): 65.4%Dealers: 16.2% At the last auction last month, the high yield was at 4.015%. Since then

Expecs inflation to wane to 2.25% this year and close to 2% next yearSees GDP this year between 2.25% and 2.50% Recent Fed rate cut should leave the economy in a strong placePace and size of future cuts to be determined by economic dataJob market unlikely to an inflation driver going forwardSees unemployment at 4.25%

The US dollar jumped after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signalled openness to pausing in November if the data supports it. “I am totally comfortable with skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate,” he told the WSJ. With that, the implied odds of the Fed pausing rose to 22% from 7% following today’s

But inflation is then expected to decline towards target over the second half of next yearToo early to declare victory against inflationCore inflation and services inflation might be stickier and not decline as much as expectedBut disinflationary process remains on trackThe risk of delays in reaching the target warrants some caution against dialing back policy

Prior was +2.5% y/ym/m reading at +0.2% vs +0.1% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded +0.1604% vs +0.081% prior Core measures: Core CPI +3.3% vs +3.2% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.2% expectedCore unrounded +0.3124% vs +1549% m/mReal weekly earnings -0.1% vs +0.5% prior Supercore m/m +0.3353% Supercore y/y +2.02% These are hot numbers and will further underpin the

More from SNB Martin: No plans to use negative interest rates at the momentThere are imaginable scenarios where we could take rates negative, but this is not a situation being considered at presentThe SNB does not have a balance sheet objective by itself The USDCHF moved outside of the trading range where most of the

The US major indices are trading lower after mixed data. Yields are mixed with the shorter end now lower and the longer end higher. The US treasury will auction off 30 year bonds later today to complete what has been a sloppy coupon auction calendar this week. A snapshot of the major indices are showing:

Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a varied picture across sectors, with technology leading the decline while consumer cyclical stocks show resilience. Key players in the tech sector exhibited notable downturns, contributing to the day’s overarching market dynamics. 📉 Technology Sector: The technology sector is seeing significant declines, with Microsoft (MSFT) down 0.97%

SNB has already pointed to another interest rate cut, but there are no promisesWith Swiss inflation low and economy that could be stronger, that points towards lower ratesWe are assured that Swiss inflation will remain firmly within the 0-2% price stability band This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Geez, can’t even get away with a forecast for meagre 1.1% growth. Says 2025 GDP forecast of 1.1% seems a bit too highInflation forecast of 1.8% next year seems a bit too high2025 deficit target seems fragile it’s very hard to get excited about Europe. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% ahead of the open while Nasdaq futures are down 0.5%. It’s been a volatile morning following CPI but the bond market should be a tailwind. In terms of company news, shares of Delta are down 1.4% in the premarket after softer Q4 guidance. They were down as much as

China’s Ministry of Finance briefing is scheduled for 10 am Beijing time on Saturday. October 12. to provide insights into fiscal policy and economic development … or ” intensifying countercyclical adjustments to its fiscal policy” according to invitation documents 10 am Beijing time is 0200 GMT, 2200 US Eastern time. Expectations are high. Again. Disappointment

It’s feast or famine for the Canadian dollar. It’s on a seven-day losing streak at the moment, running to 1.3750 from 1.3480 in that time. Incredibly, the seven-day losing streak is only the worst since July, when it sold for nine straight days, though the magnitude of this move is larger. If you look over

The sanctions will apply to the following firms: Edge Autonomy Operations LLC, Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc, and Skydio Inc. At the same time, ten US individuals are also being sanctioned as part of the same countermeasures. The list is as per the following (h/t @ Sino_Market): This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Don’t bet against human invention. Most, if not virtually all people still have little grasp on how much change generative artificial intelligence will bring. Yesterday, the Nobel Prize for physics was awarded to Jeffrey Hinton. Just three years ago, he was seen as wildly optimistic in predictions that artificial general intelligence could happen in 20

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% The DAX is going to need a push to get to new highs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has been running higher over the last week with the pair raising up near 300 pips in one week of trading. That’s a big move in a short period of time as the market trends to the upside. For a fundamental view of the price action, see Adam’s post here. Tomorrow the Canadian

Prior week 225KInitial jobless claims 258K vs 230K estimate4-week moving average initial jobless claims 231K vs 224.25KPrior week of continuing claims 1.826M revised to 1.819MContinuing Claims 1.861M vs 1.830M estimate4-week moving average of continueing claims 1.832M vs 1.828M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 28 were in Michigan (+1,187), Washington

There have been a series of ‘close call’ type meetingsThere will probably be more close call meetingsStill a lot of data coming in on what’s next, nothing is ever not on the tableWe don’t want to get ahead or behindJob market has cooled to a level of full employmentFed projections show vast majority believes that

As the NA session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is sitting near the middle of the range of currencies with a modest downward bias before the release of the key CPI data at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for a gain

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors main house price balance measures the difference between surveyors seeing falls and rises in house prices It rose to +11 in September expected +4August was 0the September move into positive territory is the first since October 2022 sales and enquiries also rose RICS comment: “A further unwinding in monetary

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US CPI report. The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In

The market reaction to the hotter US CPI report is tough to square. The dollar initially jumped to the best levels of the day but quickly turned lower. Core and headline CPI was both 0.1 pp higher than expected on a m/m basis and there were no obvious special factors driving the move. The move

The upcoming Asia-Pacific session is likely to be a volatile one. The first fear is that the call between Biden and Netanyahu today will preceed strikes against Iran, including against oil infrastructure. Axios reports that a ‘major attack against Iran’ could be coming, though it doesn’t speculate on the timeline. The report says that Israel’s

Barkin is speaking in a ‘fireside chat’ and I’ll update his comments as they cross. Inflation is down but we can’t declare victorySees risk that lower rates boost housing demand This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations October 2024 comes in at 4.0% a sharp drop from September’s 4.4% The Reserve Bank of Australia target band is 2 to 3% for inflation. Current official CPI and cash rates (this from the RBA website): The most recent communication from the RBA is not dovish: RBA

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for USD/JPY at the 149.50 level. And that could help to act as a bit of a magnet to lock price action in before we get to the US CPI report later in the day. The pair

The NZDUSD traded to the highest level in 2024 just last week (eight trading days ago). The high price reached 0.63778. Today after they are beyond the cut rates by 50 basis points, the price low traded to 0.60516. That’s 327 pips in a trading days. Technically the decline seen in trading today has taken

The US CPI report is due at the bottom of the hour and eyes will be on the ongoing creep higher in Treasury yields. The front end is indicating that the front-loading of rate cuts along with good economic data will lead to a soft landing. The question is: When do you price out a

We are witnessing record high wage increases in JapanPolicy board is going to look at the totality of the data as it makes decisionsIt will be done on a meeting by meeting basisReal interest rates are still negativeWill have more data on pass through of wage hikes on prices later in the yearAlso more data

The dollar has been on a tear in the past week or so and that has drove EUR/USD lower to break under 1.1000. Traders have moved to price out the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed next month. And with odds of a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB for

Panel participation by Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), at Macquarie University in Sydney scheduled for 6.45pm Sydney time on Thursday, October 10, 2024 0745 GMT, 0345 US Eastern time I don’t have a topic for this. The last we heard from the RBA was in the minutes of the September meeting. Not dovish: RBA minutes:

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause

Inflation expected to rise again in the latter part of this year – ECB accountsChina imposes sanctions on three US military firms on Taiwan arms salesNew Whales Drop $100B on BTC, is It Time for New Rally?BOJ’s Himino: We have enough time to carefully monitor financial marketsWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ’s Himino: We will

Later today, Thursday, 10 October 2024, we get the US consumer inflation data for September. Due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time. What to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column

Info comes via Barrons (may be gated). Scott Bessent is described as “one of Donald Trump’s closest economic advisers”. He has proposed that Trump nominate and seek Senate confirmation of Powell’s replacement well over a year before Powell’s term ends in May 2026. In effect, a ‘shadow’ Chiar. The approved nominee would need to wait

Bitcoin (BTC) is grabbing attention with new whale transactions and rising ETF inflows. Recently, over $100 billion has been poured into Bitcoin by large players, known as whales. Could this mean a new price rally for BTC? In this article, we’ll break down how these inflows might change the market, whether now is a good

Ueda told PM Ishiba that BOJ has enough time to carefully monitor financial marketsThere is no silver bullet in better communicationEach approach comes with pros and consNo clear consensus among policymakers about future approach on better communicationBut there is a strong will to learn from what happened in August If you need to recall, there

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause

85.6% of Japanese households expect prices to rise a year from now (previously 87.5%)94.7% of households feel present level of prices are higher compared to a year ago (previously 95.0%)6.6% of households anticipate economic conditions to improve a year from now (previously 7.9%)56.5% of households anticipate economic conditions to be roughly the same a year

Japan government junior coalition partner says utility and fuel subsidies should continueUS CPI data due Thursday. Here are the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino will be speaking soonMore on “China’s Central Bank Launches Swap Facility to Boost Stock Market”PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today

Today is the US CPI Day. Everyone’s waiting for the release so nothing else will matter today. After the CPI release, we will hear from a couple of Fed speakers, including NY Fed President Williams, so that’s going to be something to keep a close eye on. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US September CPI The

Headline on this is here from earlier: PBOC to establish securities, funds to aid capital market stability The Wall Street Journal have a recap on this now. The Journal is gated but here is the link if you can access it. that eligible brokers and insurers can now pledge assets such as bonds, stock ETFs,

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.1% There is a more tepid mood among European indices, with US futures also reflecting similar sentiment. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% and that’s not leaving major currencies with much to work with. The antipodeans are marginally higher, backed by more

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 46 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 135 bps ECB: 50 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 145 bps BoE: 35 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 116 bps BoC: 69 bps (68% probability of

ICYMI: FOMC Minutes: A substantial majority of participants supported a 50 basis point cut The Wall Street Journal (gated) have followed up with a piece on the disagreements at the meeting: a substantial majority favoring the larger half-percentage-point reduction that was ultimately approved, but others favoring a smaller quarter-point cut. the minutes revealed an unspecified

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes with US futures also showing a more tepid mood, down 0.1% on the day. Looking to Asia, Chinese equities are bouncing back after the setback yesterday with the CSI 300 index up 2.5% and Shanghai Composite up 2.8%. Both indices returned from the holiday with a

From Japan today we get the September Producer Price Index (PPI), also known in Japan as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their outputis calculated by the Bank of Japan Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which

The Reuters urvey finds that Japanese companies are facing earnings headwinds: 36% of Japanese firms expect to miss H1 earnings targetsRising costs and sluggish sales weighing on performanceTransportation equipment sector struggling, 50% to miss forecastsShipping industry bucking trend, benefiting from Middle East conflicts70% see USD/JPY trading 140-150 by fiscal year-end45% favor monetary policy moves to

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -1.2% The German stats office had suspended the retail sales data release since June due to “IT problems” but are now resuming it as per the regular schedule. Looking at the details, food retail sales contributed a big part to the beat as it rose by 1.9% on the month. There are some methodological

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly Earlier: Fed’s Daly: One or two more Fed rate cuts likely this year More now: I am not worried about accelerating inflationI was more worried about injuring the labor marketWill watch inflation data carefullyLittle evidence that balance sheet expansion has much of a direct effect on

BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino to deliver a speech on Japan’s markets at an event hosted by Bloombergscheduled for 0335 US Eastern time, 0735 GMT It’ll be interesting to hear if he gives any guidance on the likely timing of the next rate hike from the BoJ. Market expectations are around December at present. This

“Substantial majority” supported 50bp cutCommittee gained “greater confidence” inflation moving sustainably toward 2% goalRisks to employment and inflation goals now seen as “roughly in balance”Economic activity expanding at “solid pace”, job gains slowed but unemployment remains lowInflation made “further progress” but still “somewhat elevated”Most participants see balanced risks to inflation outlookSome members would have preferred

So, what’d I miss? The dollar is keeping in good stead over the last week as traders have conceded to pricing in a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed for November now. A soft landing scenario looks more and more certain each day. The odds of a 25 bps rate cut for next month

Analsysts at JP Morgan are still forecasting a 25bp Fed Funds rate cut at the November 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. But, they point to stronger data since the September meeting as a reason why debate at that meeting will raise the question of whether or not be leave the rate unchanged, on

1. A Few A few participants suggested that firms remained reluctant to lay off workers after having difficulty obtaining employees earlier in the post-pandemic period.A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather

Ahead of the CPI data tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM, US stocks closed higher with the S&P and the Dow industrial average both closing at record levels. The NASDAQ index closed higher as well and is now around 1.9% from it’s all time high closing level at 18467.58. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

Record close on the S&P and the Dow.Eyes on the Middle East and weather in the hours aheadCrude oil futures settled at $73.24In the age of AI, here’s an old reminder that technology can advance at lightning speedWhat did a few, some, several, many, a substantial majority of Fed officials agree onFOMC Minutes: A substantial

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Yields in the US have moved higher with the 10-year yield now up 2.8 basis points and the 2-year yield up 3.2 basis points. In addition, the chance of no change in policy in November reached close to 25% today before rotating back down to 20%. It wasn’t long ago that the market was pricing

Info comes via the UK’s Adam Smith Institute (ASI) on the exodus of high net worth individuals from the UK: Today, 4.55% of British residents are millionaires, but the ASI has forecast that this will fall to 3.62% by 2028;The fact that the UK is losing proportionately more millionaires than China or Russia is a

The election in Japan is coming up on Sunday 27 October 2024⁩ Voting will take place for seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Currently the LDP rule in coalition with junior coalition partner Komeito. The leader of Komeito says fuel and utility subsidies should continue ‘for a while’.

more to come September 2024 PPI 0.0% m/m, while its zero that’s higher than August and than the expected expected -0.3%, prior -0.2% +2.8% y/y, a clear beat of the consensus estimate and August expected +2.3%, prior +2.5% Higher than expected is a yen positive at the margin — — The Producer Price Index (PPI)

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins is speaking Reiterates her support for more US rate cuts This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly Fully supported half-point rate cutQuite confident we are on path to 2% inflationWe are at full employmentWith policy rate steady, real rate was risingRising real rate was a recipe for overtightening and injuring the labor marketRate cut was a recalibration, to rightsize rates for the economySize

People’s Bank of China will establish a SFISE (security, funds and insurance companies swap facility) for 500bn yuan. To build capital market stability. At the margin a positive for stocks and markets in the country more generally. Pan Gongsheng, People’s Bank of China governor This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $73.24. That is down -$0.33 or -0.45%. The low price today reached $71.58. The high price extended to $74.41. Technically, looking at the daily chart, the price today fell below its 50 day moving average and the broken 38.2% retracement near $72.60, and rotated to the low of the

IN the kickstart video above for October 9, I take a look at three the major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. As a bonus today, I also take a technical look at the NZDUSD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points. EURUSD: The EURUSD yesterday moved up

MUFG anticipates that the minutes from the September FOMC meeting will provide insights into the level of support for the 50bps rate cut and the current sentiment regarding inflation and the dual mandate. Key Points: Support for the Rate Cut: Market participants will be keen to understand how strong the support was for the 50bps

PiQ on Twitter China’s Finance Ministry to hold fiscal policy briefing on October 12, detailing intensified adjustment China’s Finance Ministry will hold a press briefing on October 12th to provide insights into fiscal policy and economic development. The briefing, scheduled for 10:00 local time, will introduce details on China’s intensified fiscal policy adjustments aimed at

How does 4.06% for ten years sound? That’s what markets will be grappling with as we count down to the results of the 10-year sale at the top of the hour. I thought we would see more bids as 10s crossed 4% the the sellers continue to have the upper hand as US economic data

Bibi will speak with Biden at 10:30 pm ET. That’s an odd time to schedule a call, given that it will be 5:30 am in Tel Aviv. Does that late time hint at something happening today? Netanhayu delivered an ominous speech yesterday, saying “You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 is unchanged at 3.2%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on October 9, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US

Another day of losses for Chinese equities this morning, with the HK50 down close to 3% and the CN50 down close to 8% at the time of writing. In broader equity futures, we are trading marginally lower (apart from the FTSE100). The push lower in volatility yesterday is a slightly better sign, but we’ll need

Upside risks to inflation mean Fed should not rush to reduce ratesI continue to see a meaningful risk inflation could get stuck above targetLowering policy rate gradually would allow time to judge how restrictive monetary policy may or may not beNormalizing policy gradually also allows Fed to ‘best balance’ labor market risksLess restrictive policy will

📈 Technology Sector: Leading the Charge The technology sector is standing out today, driven by significant gains in semiconductor stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) is up 1.01%, underscoring investor confidence in the sector. This momentum is further supported by positive moves from AMD (+0.45%) and ADI (+0.14%). 🚀 Mixed Performance in Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services Amazon

Closing changes for the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +1.0%France CAC +0.6%UK FTSE 100 +0.6%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB +0.5% The DAX has been one of the leaders in the broader rally in global stocks. It gathered bids in the past two hours and finished at the highs of the day. This article

Seven straight days of USD/CAD gains speaks to a strong rejection of what looked like it could be a breakdown in August and September. The chart is a big of a nightmare for technical analysis as it had a break, then a lower low then a snap-back rally into the middle of the old range.

High yield vs 3.648% priorBid to cover 2.48 vs 2.64 prior This isn’t a great result given the climb in yields lately. It’s feast or famine in fixed income as the market tries to sort out whether the US is headed towards recession or reflation. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China’s new yuan loans likely surged in September as stimulus ramps up Full Story on PiQ Suite A Reuters poll suggests that China’s new yuan loans jumped to 1.87 trillion yuan ($264.75 billion) in September, more than doubling August’s total, as the central bank ramps up stimulus to boost the struggling economy. Despite this increase,

The USDCAD extended above its 100-day moving average yesterday, but by the end of the day was trading back below that he moving average level at 1.36513. In the early Asian session, traders took the price even a lower and back below the high price from September at 1.36467. Those breaks should have disappointed the

The EURUSD has moved to a new session low, and in the process, the pair moved to a new low going back to August 13 and through the 61.8% of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0944, and a swing area between 1.09419 to 1.0949. The low reached 1.09388. However, what looms

US mortgage applications -5.1% vs -1.3% priorMorgan Stanley expecting slight deceleration in tomorrow’s CPIECB’s Patsalides says room for rate cut but Middle East implications need assessmentInterest rate expectations for upcoming policy decisionsIsraeli PM Netanyahu held extensive talks with senior officials on response to IranViews on major FX from UBSECB’s Kazaks: Rate cuts are necessary as

As I outlined yesterday, China hasn’t done enough to crank up its real economy and that’s led to some heavy selling in Chinese equities. The question is: Will more fiscal stimulus come? The answer might come Saturday. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference on Saturday at 10 am local

Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. 📆 Every Weekday ⏰ 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST 🔊 LINK 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

The NHC is out with the latest forecast for Milton, some highlights Milton’s structure changing due to strong 30-35 kt southwesterly shearCloud canopy asymmetric, dry air infiltrating western circulationMinimum pressure up to 931 mb, intensity now 125 ktExpected to be major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4) at landfall tonight (forecast now says at the top

Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes later it’s afternoon at 2 PM, Richard Fed Pres. Barkin was scheduled to give the opening remarks at an event in Chicago at 12:15 PM ET. Meanwhile feds Jefferson is due to speak on the discount window at 12:30 PM ET. Nothing has been heard from Fed’s Barkin so

The NASDAQ index is now trading up over 113 points or 0.62% at 18295.69. The high price reached 18299.22. That has taken the price within 2% of it’s all time high closing level at 18647.45. The intraday high close level came in at 18671.07. The next target comes against the high price from September at

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate dropped to 4.75% from 5.25%, The 50bp cut was widely expected. — Statement summary points: New Zealand is now in a position of excess capacity.Low import prices have assisted disinflation.The committee assesses annual consumer price inflation within its 1-3% target.It is appropriate to cut the OCR by 50

Full Note 🌏 APAC stocks traded mixed, initially benefiting from Wall Street’s tech-led rally, while China’s upcoming fiscal policy briefing looms. 💼 Key Developments: China’s Finance Ministry will hold a press briefing on October 12th to outline fiscal policy adjustments.RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bps to 4.75%, while the RBI kept its Repurchase

BofA believes the ECB will cut rates more aggressively than currently priced in by the market, citing four key reasons for this outlook. Key Points: Economic Stimulus Needs: There are reasonable scenarios where the Euro Area economy may require additional stimulus, suggesting that rates may need to fall well below the neutral level to support

Morgan Stanley are forecasting ECB rate cuts of 25bp at the next four meetings: October 17, 2024December 12. 2024January 30. 2025March 6, 2025 MS say this’ll take the ECB rate to 2.5% and close to neutral. Being close to neutral will then slow the next serious of rate cuts from the Bank. MS forecasts 25bp

Fed’s Jeffereson did NOT FAIL to disappoint, when the only headline from his speaking engagment was a remark repeated from Tuesday: Fed decisions will be meeting by meeting. Meanwhile there is nothing from Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There hasn’t been a clear catalyst for the turnaround in risk sentiment in the past two hours but it’s real and widespread. The S&P 500 just touched a record high and Treasury yields are inching up. The FX market is also validating the move with risk trades improving. USD/JPY is up 104 pips to 149.24,

As the North American session is started the USD is the strongest of the major currencies and the NZD is the weakest. Overnight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its cash rate by 50 basis points, reducing it from 5.25% to 4.75% in a widely expected move. The decision reflects the current state

The USDCHF broke higher after the stronger than expected US jobs report on Friday. The break took the price above the high of the “Red Box” that had confined the pair going back to August 20. On Monday and into yesterday, the price rotated back to the downside and in the process reentered that”Red Box”.

Not as convinced as media reports on October cut.We can’t rule out a rate cut at the next meeting.I’m not currently worried about the ECB undershooting 2% target.We’ll only get key data in December.Not convinced that we should decide on the basis of one good inflation figure.It’s important for us to have certainty that we

Hitting social media outlets, seems legit, trying to confirm: Tesla offering a record low loan rate of 0% APR for new Model 3 and Model Y finance orders in the U.S. loan terms up to 72 monthsa minimum down payment of 15%$7,500 Federal tax credit will be applied, if eligible Other terms and conditions of

The S&P 500 just touched a fresh record at 5773. It’s up 22 points today or 0.4% and has broken the Sept 26 high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Q&A now: Fed has not changed its approach to monetary policyFed is always thinking about the balance of risksOur goal has been to bring inflation down without causing undue or a disorderly increase in the unemployment rate Performance of labour market gave us headroom to keep policy restrictive for

As meetings are held and diplomatic solutions are debated with regard to retaliation against the Iran’s missile attack last week, Sky news Arabia is reporting from Lebanese sources that an Israeli warship was spotted at sea off the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon as Isreal continues its assault on Hezbollah militants in that region.

Hurricane forecaster Tomer Burg notes that the path of Hurricane Milton over the past few hours has been tracking consistently south of most models and forecasts. The storm was last a Category 5 hurricane but is expected to weaken somewhat over the next 14-18 hours to a Cat-4 or Cat-3 before landfall. However this track

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold dropped during the American session without any clear catalyst. Real yields rose following the US NFP report and that weighed on the market. After some resistance, the price eventually caught up with higher real yields dropping to a new two-weeks low. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report and that could

Morgan Stanley has bumped its forecast for Brent crude oil in the final quarter of 2024 to $80 / Barrel up from its previous forecast of $75 MS cite heightened geopolitical risk. MS are wary though, saying demand is weaker than expected and supply has been robust. And thus warn of a widening surplus in

Prior was +1.1%Inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expFull report That should lead to some Q3 GDP estimate downgrades. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD: Bias: Weakness anticipated, but with temporary support.Rationale: The USD decline has stalled due to geopolitical risks (e.g., Middle East conflict) and weaker macroeconomic data from Europe. However, strong US rate-cut expectations and inflation readings leaning to the downside should limit gains.Targets: DXY should ultimately fall below 100, with EUR/USD forecasted to reach 1.15, GBP/USD

The major indices are trading mixed in early US trading: A snapshot of the market nine minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average cost 65.73 points or 0.16% at 42146.10S&P index up 1.04 points or 0.02% at 5752.17NASDAQ index -25.79 points or -0.14% at 18157.13 The small-cap Russell 2000 Sam -3.52 points or

The AUDUSD is moving lower after testing a key resistance area between 0.67429 and 0.6760. Sellers leaned against the high of that swing area and pushed prices back to the downside. On the downside, earlier this week the price found support buyers against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at

Implied rate expectations for the upcoming policy decisions for major central banks: ECB: -25 basis points of easing implied for October 17th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut) BoC: -32 basis points of easing implied for October 23rd meeting (100% probability implied for a cut) BoJ: 1 basis point of tightening implied for the

The main event for today was the RBNZ rate decision. The central bank cut rates by 50 bps as expected and there was nothing to suggest that they won’t deliver a similar cut in November. The market sees an 80% probability of a 50 bps cut in November and 166 bps of easing by the

This chart from Deutsche Bank is getting some love out there, showing that US benchmark index “is still experiencing its strongest YTD performance of the 21st century so far, having risen by +19.4% since the start of the year.” Of more interest though is what DB analysts see for the next few months: Looking forward,

Crude oil inventories +5810vs +2048K expGasoline inventories –6304K vs -1123K expDistillates inventories -3124K vs -1865K expRefinery utilization -0.9% versus expectations of -0.1% exp Private oil inventory data from late yesterday: Crude +10900K (huge build)Gasoline -557KDistillates -2590K WTI crude oil was trading down $1.71 to $71.87 ahead of the release. The moves immediately following the release

The picture continues to dim in Germany and the economy ministry is out with lower forecasts, something that was hinted at earlier this week. GDP seen -0.2% in 2024 vs +0.3% priorExpects +1.1% in 2025 vs +1.0% priorSees 1.6% growth in 2026Sees 2024 inflation at 2.2% vs 2.4% priorSees 2.0% inflation in 2025 and 1.9%

Defensive sectors prop up Europe’s STOXX 600 as China uncertainty lingers Full Story on PiQ Suite European stocks gained slightly, with defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and real estate supporting the STOXX 600 amid ongoing concerns about China’s stimulus plans. Mining and luxury sectors linked to China struggled, while Rio Tinto slipped 0.7% following its

ECB’s Patsalides: There seems to be room for a rate cut.ECB’s Patsalides: But we should discuss all new data as usual.ECB’s Patsalides: Middle East implications should be assessed. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Global economy could face losses of $14.5 trillion over 5 years from potential geopolitical conflict, according to Lloyd’s of London Lloyd’s of London warns that a hypothetical geopolitical conflict could cost the global economy $14.5 trillion over a five-year period. The forecast highlights the significant risks posed by escalating geopolitical tensions, with potential widespread economic

ECB remains on track to hit 2% inflation in Q4 2025Services inflation and wage growth present some uncertainty There isn’t much here, the market is 98% priced for an Oct 17 rate cut of 25 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Last night PM Netanyahu met for over five hours with a group of senior ministers and senior IDF and intelligence community officials to try to reach a decision regarding the scope and timing of the Israeli response against Iran. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley expects a slight deceleration in tomorrow’s headline inflation data. Core CPI is projected at 0.26% MM and 3.2% YY Headline CPI is projected at of 0.09% MM and 2.3 YY The main components to watch for tomorrow: Housing inflation is expected to soften, with rents anticipated to decelerate, particularly due to adjustments in

NHC says Milton remains a catastrophic category 5 hurricane, forecast to make landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast late tonight as a dangerous major hurricane.NHC says Hurricane Milton about 300 mi (485 km) southwest of Tampa Florida; maximum sustained winds 160 mph (260 km/h).NHC says a turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on

It’s mid-week and eyes remain on China as it sorts itself out following the holiday ramp. Shanghai shares fell 6.6% but officials teased a weekend announcement: Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference on Saturday at 10 am local time to discuss the country’s plans for intensifying countercyclical adjustments to

British Foreign Secretary Lammy to visit China in bid to reset strained ties Full Story on PiQ Suite Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy is set to visit China next week, aiming to reset relations strained by issues surrounding Hong Kong, rights abuses, and espionage accusations. The new Labour government seeks to adopt a less confrontational

US mortgage applications -5.1% vs -1.3% prior US mortgage market index 277.5vs 292.3 prior US mortgage purchase index 149.2 vs 149.3 prior US MBA 30-year mortgage rate 6.36% vs 6.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format – 1200/8 AM: Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speaks – 1315/9:15 AM: Dallas Fed’s Logan speaks – 1430/10:30 AM: Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee speaks – 1615/12:15 PM Richmon Fed’s Barkin speaks – 1630/12:30 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks – 1800/2 PM: FOMC, September minutes release – 2100/5

Coming up from the ECB today: 0530 GMT/0140 US Eastern time: Bank of France head of ECB policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks to Franceinfo radio 0800 GMT/0400 US Eastern time: ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir will present the Slovak National Bank’s updated economic outlook 0830 GMT /0430 US Eastern time: Participation by ECB board

Rate cuts are necessary as the economy is weak. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is one of the most crucial economic indicators that affect currency exchange rates. CPI measures the average price change consumers pay for goods and services over time and is a critical indicator of inflation. Here’s a detailed look at how CPI data influences currency pairs in the foreign exchange market.

China’s finance ministry to detail fiscal stimulus plans on Saturday Full Story on PiQ Suite China’s finance ministry will hold a news conference on Saturday to provide details on fiscal stimulus measures aimed at reviving the faltering economy. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an will lead the session, where the ministry is expected to outline countercyclical fiscal

India cenbank holds rates at 6.50%, shifts stance to ‘neutral,’ signaling potential rate cuts Full Story on PiQ The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% but shifted its stance to “neutral,” signaling the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. T his marks a shift from the

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. The next key event to watch will be the US CPI report

Geopolitical risk premium in oil market eases slightly, says Goldman Sachs Full Story on PiQ Suite Goldman Sachs reported that the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has slightly decreased this week, following sharp increases in Brent crude implied volatility and call options implied volatility skew last week. Oil prices steadied, with Brent crude

At 2330/1930 Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson participates in “The Discount Window, 1913-2000” conversation hosted by Davidson College You’ll see listed on the calendar consumer confidence for Australia next. This was published yesterday. it improved to a 2.5 year high. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the focus. The Bank is widely expected

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Sep) Actual: -6.5% Previous: -3.5% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

This info comes via eFX. **** Synopsis: BofA anticipates a modest rise in both headline and core CPI for September, indicating firm core inflation without immediate cause for concern. Key Points: CPI Forecasts: BofA predicts a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and a 0.3% m/m rise in core CPI. The anticipated decline in energy

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. The next key event to watch will be the US CPI report

Full Story on PiQ Suite German Imports (Aug) Actual: -3.4% 🔴 Expected: -2.5% Previous: 5.4% German Exports (MoM) Actual: 1.3% 🟢 Expected: -1.0% Previous: 1.7% German Trade Balance Actual: 22.5B 🟢 Expected: 18.9B Previous: 16.8B This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Seven Fed speakers + September minutes on the Federal Reserve agenda Wednesday, October 9Morgan Stanley raised its Brent price forecast to $80 a barrel (from $75) for Q4 2024US inflation data due this week: BofA predicts a +0.1% m/m headline CPI, +0.3% m/m coreEuropean Central Bank speakers Wednesday include Villeroy and KazimirMorgan Stanley sees a

ECB ‘very likely’ to reduce interest rates next week, says Villeroy Full Story on PiQ Suite European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled that the ECB is “very likely” to cut interest rates next week due to weak economic growth. As head of the French central bank, Villeroy’s comments add weight to growing

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey: October manufacturers sentiment +7, September was a 7-month low of +4September non-manufacturers sentiment +20 (falling for the fourth month in a row to its lowest since February 2023) vs +23 in September January manufacturers index seen at +9, non-manufacturers at

Axios citing sources says: Advanced talks are underway to hold a phone call between US present Biden and Israel’s PM Netanyahu. Is it theatre to make it appear diplomatic efforts have been made before the attack? Will it even take place? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

SocGen anticipates a temporary pullback in USD/JPY towards 145, followed by a potential rally towards the significant resistance level near 152. Key Points: Recent Performance: USD/JPY has formed a higher trough at 141.60 and is currently in a short-term rebound, having surpassed its 50-day moving average (DMA) at 145 and recently tested the pivot high

The major US indices are in a saw-tooth pattern over the last 3 days. Looking at the major indices, the changes showed: Dow Industrial Average: Up 341 points. Down -398. Up 126.13.S&P: Up 51 points. Down 55.13 points . Up 55.21 pointsNasdaq. Up 219 points. Down -213.95 points. Up 259.01 points. The percentage changes today

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson: FED rate cut ‘recalibrated’ policy to maintain strength of labor market.Economic growth is ‘solid,’ inflation has ‘eased substantially,’ labor market has ‘noticeably’ cooled.Inflation is much closer to 2% goal, expect to continue to make progress.Balance of risks to FED’s two mandates have been brought roughly into balance.Will watch incoming

This is via the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos. Scanning some research notes I see Bank of America is reporting client conversations saying there has been a shift from the question of 25bp vs. 50bp in November to does the Fed even need to cut at all at that meeting? Yikes. This article was written

Dollar holds steady ahead of Fed minutes, kiwi drops after sharp rate cut Full Story on PiQ Suite The U.S. dollar remained stable ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, while the New Zealand dollar dropped to a near two-month low following a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bloomberg on Bank of Japan former executive director in charge of monetary policy Eiji Maeda, who spoke in an interview Tuesday. In summary: “January has the highest probability … when the bank releases its latest economic projections.” BOJ will be watching three critical developments: the US presidential election, the trend in service prices this autumn

China Growth Set to Slow Further in 2025, World Bank Says World Bank forecasts China’s GDP growth to drop to 4.3% in 2025 from 4.8% in 20242024 estimate revised up 0.3% on stimulus measures, but 2025 projection unchangedWeak consumer spending, property market woes, aging population cited as challengesRecent stimulus focused on supply side, may not

USD/JPY: 144.75 ($1.42b), 147.00 ($960m) EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR790m), 1.0900 (EUR482m), 1.1275 (EU3R95m) USD/CAD: 1.3535 ($420m), 1.3550 ($301m) AUD/USD: 0.6625 (AUD648.5m) NZD/USD: 0.6050 (NZD751m), 0.6250 (NZD666m) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build much larger than expectedMore from Fed’s Collins: Labor markets are in a good place overallRebound. Major indices close higher.Fed’s Collins says Fed predicts 50bp of cuts into year endAdvanced talks are underway to hold a phone call between Biden and Israel’s NetanyahuCrude oil settles at

Trading successfully needs to focus on risks and putting the odds of success in your favor. That can manifest in different ways but one way is recognizing a pattern by traders. When I look at the EURGBP, the pattern on the 4-hour chart is simple. In trading today: The 200-bar MA stalled the rally today

The headlines from her earlier speech are here: Fed’s Collins says Fed predicts 50bp of cuts into year end Q&A now: Fed is focusing on both sides of its mandatelabor markets are in a good place overallsees 2% inflation achieved by late next year or soHigh price levels are a challenge for manyThe optimistic path

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate by half a percent, headlines here: RBNZ cuts cash rate by 50bp, as widely expected From the minutes to the RBNZ meeting: The committee confirmed that future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy.The committee agreed that excess capacity

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), discusses the review the RBA has just published on the Term Funding Facility (TFF) The TFF was one of the unconventional policy tools the RBA used during the COVID-19 pandemic. Headlines via Reuters: The TFF delivered on its goals set at the start of the pandemic.Total cost of the

Bloomberg (gated) carries remarks from Guggenheim Partners Investment Management chief investment officer Anne Walsh, who spoke at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut on Tuesday. In very brief: “We’re in a reflationary world for the first time in a while” when inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers “should probably take that ridiculous collar

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by and at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Headlines summary via Reuters: Further rate cuts likely needed, future action to be data driven.Notes September Fed forecasts predicted 50 bp cuts into year end.Is more confident

Huge build — — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2.0 mn barrelsDistillates -1.9 mn bblsGasoline -1.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Crude oil futures are settling down $73.57. That’s down $3.57 or -4.63%. The high price today reached $78.42. The low price extended to $72.73. Looking at the daily chart, the low price stalled right at its 50 day moving average (at $72.73), and also just above its broken 38.2% retracement at $72.62. There is a

Buckle up. Israel has informed the Pentagon that Israeli Defense Minister Gallant will not be traveling to Washington. Earlier today there was a report that the US was concerned that Israel would attack Iran while Israel defense minister Gallant was visiting in Washington. The US wants to paint a picture of not being involved in

Oil prices are bouncing back on an NBC report citing US officials who say that Israel is considering striking energy facilities in Iran. An earlier report from the Jerusalem Post said they were only looking at military targets. The NBC report says: US officials said they do not believe Israel has made a final decision

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser not adding a lot what the minutes said earlier, no sign of an imminent rate cut from the RBA: when inflation stops being high and sticky the Bank will act AUD/USD is falling on the disappointing NDRC press conference in China. Markets had high hopes of more

Data points to October interest rate cut.Rates will fall and that will support the economy.Inflation is not fully defeated, especially services inflation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

High yield 3.878%WI level at the time of the auction 3.871%Tail: 0.7 bps vs six-month average of 0.0 bpsBid to cover: 2.44X versus six-month average of 3.57XDirects (domestic demand): 23.97% versus six-month average of 18.1%Indirects (international demand): 56.87% versus six-month average of 66.1%Dealer: 19.17% versus six-month average of 15.8% Auction Grade: D The bad: The

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler noted that while the U.S. labor market is cooling, it remains resilient. Full Story on PiQ Suite Speaking at a European Central Bank conference, Kugler highlighted the Fed’s aim to avoid a significant slowdown in employment, welcoming the recent drop in unemployment. Several indicators suggest the job market is normalizing,

Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic is speaking and says: Labor market has slowed down, but is not slow or weak.Monthly job creation above what is needed to account for population growth.Economy is close to the Fed targets and moving closer.Inflation rate is still quite a ways above 2%.A risk that the economy is too strong, and

The US treasury will auction off the $58 billion of 3-year notes at the top of the hour. At the auction last month, the high yield came in at 3.44%. The current 3 year yield is up at 3.871% despite a 50 basis point from the federal reserve after last interest-rate decision. With yields sharply

The NZDUSD has been trending lower over the last 7 days of trading. That has helped to push the price down from a high of 0.6378 to a low of 0.6106 today. That is 272 pips in 7 trading days, which is a pretty good move. Today there is some up and down stall. Why?

After the week long break Chinese equity marekts are opening super-strong. Shanghai Composite is up over 8%. – ADDED – as I post further gains making a liar out of me. Add another1 or more percent to those numbers above. Hong Kong is trading lower. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month $-78.8 billion revised to $-78.9 billiontrade balance $-70.4 billion versus $-70.6 billion estimate.good trade balance -$94.22 pain dollars versus $-102.8 billion last monthservices surplus $24.4 billion versus $24.3 billion last month Details: exports +2% versus July’s +0.5%imports -0.9% versus July +2.1%exports $271.76 billion versus $266.48 billion last monthimports $342.1 billion versus $345.4 billion

Risk sentiment has been fairly sour across major asset classes this morning. • In FX we can see the AUD, CAD and NZD (high beta currencies) are the weakest, while the JPY is the strongest, with the USD a surprising rangebound today. • In equities, the talk of the town is China where the HK50

Chinese equities have seen better Mondays… The CN50 was down close to 14% a bit earlier in the session, after the NDRC presser left markets feeling uninspired. Many were looking for the presser to include a new batch of additional stimulus measures. However markets didn’t get that, and Chinese equities were taken to the woodshed

As the North American session begins the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is in the middle of the table with gains vs the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) and CHF, and losses vs the EUR, GBP and JPY. There was a number of comments from bankers overnight.

US officials fear that Israel will implement its response to Iran when Israel defense minister Gallant is on his visit to Washington. Do not believe that Israel has made a final decision on the details of the response to IranDiscussions with Tel Aviv included US providing intelligence support or even launching airstrikesDespite its intention to

Good news for FTX customers as they will be fully repaid as nearly $16 billion in assets have been recovered. That’s also great news for vulture funds that were buying up bankruptcy claims for around 10-cents on the dollar. That has to sting with around $425m in claims changing hands. Bitcoin was trading at about

Riksbank’s Bunge says more confident that high inflation is behind usChina’s Premier Li vows stronger policy coordination with timely implementationPepsiCo expect higher borrowing costs to impact consumer spendingECB’s Centeno: Inflation in the Euro Area converged towards goalUS September NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 91.2 priorJapan’s Akazawa says wage-price cycle progressing but full shift

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic landscape with notable movements across various sectors. The technology sector showed impressive resilience, led by standout gains in the semiconductor and automotive segments. 📈 Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) surged by 1.60%, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector. Meanwhile, AMD posted a gain of 0.98%, further emphasizing

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech, “Financial Conditions, the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” at a Money Marketeers of New York University Inc. event: Fed’s Musalem: Costs of easing too much outwiegh easing too little Q&A now: The September jobs report was very strong.The labor market is strong; it is healthy.There is no emergency

As the North American session begins, what are the technical levels in play for the three major currency pairs? A written summary: EURUSD: The EURUSD on Friday fell to test a high of a swing area between 1.09419 and 1.09490. In between that level is a 61.8% retracement of the move up from the August

US stock markets are cruising today as tech rips but it was a different story in Europe as optimism about exports to China ebbed. Stoxx 600 -0.5%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -1.4%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB -0.3% The FTSE 100 has been too quiet for too long. This article was written by Adam

USD/CAD is an interesting chart at the moment as it attempts to break clear of the September high. So far, it’s edged just one pip above the Sept high of 1.3647 in the fifth day of gains. The pair had looked like it was breaking down in August as US economic data sagged and then

Kinder Morgan says that it Shutdown pipelines that are part of Central Florida pipeline systemHas shutdown all terminals in Tampa Florida Citgo is also shutting down its Tampa terminals as well. The oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are not impacted by the storm. Crude oil is down sharply today. The price is currently

Hurricane Milton is expected to be a devastating hurricane along the west coast of Florida and land late on Wednesday evening. The latest advisory from the NHC says Milton is forecast to retain major hurricane status and expand in size as it approaches the coast of Florida. In NHC parlance, a ‘major hurricane’ is Category-3

France French Trade Balance (Aug) Actual: -7.4B 🔴 Expected: -5.5B Previous: -6.0B French Imports Actual: 57.0B Previous: 55.5B French Exports Actual: 49.7B Previous: 49.5B Current Account Actual: -0.60B Previous: 0.00B This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Japan making steadily progress toward achieving a cycle of rising wages and prices.Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Japan on cusp of shifting to economy where prices rise accompanied by wage hikes, but not quite there yet.Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Specific monetary policy up to BOJ to decide.Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Confirmed with

The USDCAD is continuing the move to the upside after bottoming last Wednesday near 1.3472. Since then the price has risen for five consecutive days taking the price to a high of 1.3660 in trading today. In the process today, the price has been able to extend above the September high at 1.36467. That is

If our projections that inflation will converge towards 2% target in the second half of 2025 continue to be confirmed, we will continue to gradually ease our restrictive stance.The ECB will have an open mind in the October meeting even as downside risks to growth might already be materialising.Many recent data suggested that downside risks

Germany’s industrial production for August surpassed expectations with a 2.9% increase, showing strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Germany German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) Actual: 2.9% 🟢 Expected: 0.8% Previous: -2.4% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF moved lower off of a spike high after the US jobs report on Friday. The price backed off into the close and move lower in trading yesterday. That move took the price to the high of the “Red Box” (see chart below) that confined the pair going back to August 20. Support buyers

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. If we keep getting strong US data, then USDJPY will likely continue to drift

Brent crude is down $4 today as the squeeze abruptly ends. The US has been leaning on Israel to avoid attacking energy and it looks like it worked. Biden/Harris don’t want a spike in energy prices just before the election. I wouldn’t believe anything that’s leaking in the press but the market clearly does. This

It’s time to start paying closer attention to this indicator as we count down to the October 30 release of advance GDP for Q3. This is a nice bump and comes after some upbeat economic data. “After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,

The AUDUSD fell below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% retracement of the move up from the September low at 0.67813. That ignited more selling that has continued today with the price moving and staying below the 61.8% of the move up from the September low at 0.67436. That is

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s Bloomberg Interview Highlights: Sees deficits as inflationary, and they ‘need to be dealt with’Fed’s 50 bps cut was appropriate; longer rates may tick up slightlyMidsize US bank mergers should be allowedAI is “real” and transformative; JPM added 1,000 AI workersIPO backlog exists but execution uncertainPublic markets high, but IPO activity remains

As a dust settles from the open, the major indices are mixed after 20 minutes of trading. The Dow industrial average and Russell 2000 up small-cap stocks is lower. The S&P and NASDAQ indices are higher. A snapshot of the market shows: Dow industrial average -37.85 points or -0.09% at 41916.39.S&P index up 22.23 points

Nomura with a wary note on US equities. Analysts at the bank said a strong September jobs report last Friday highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, raising hopes for a smooth economic transition and driving stock prices higher. However, Nomura warns that U.S. stocks may face challenges in continuing their upward trend. US equities

BNP like the euro but ahead of the US election assess that its prudent to add USD hedges: risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East, geopolitical risk underpricedahead of US electionsinvestors positioned short USD BNP like the USD, especially against currencies with weaker fundamentals. Room to run higher for the US dollar? This article

Libya’s NOC says daily production reached 1,133,133 BPD of crude oil and condensate in the last 24 hours – Statement.Libya’s NOC says recovery comes just days after the lifting of the force majeure – Statement. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Justin will be back tomorrow. I know that’ll be a relief for many of you options guys – I feel the same. USD/JPY: 150.00 (US$951m), 145.45 (US$750.1m) EUR/USD: 1.1085 (EUR1.11b), 1.1250 (EUR1.03b), 1.1000 (EUR1.01b) AUD/USD: 0.6800 (AUD781m), 0.6740 (AUD554m), 0.6825 (AUD505m) USD/CNY: 7.1600 ($444m), 7.0500 ($400m)as an aside, Chinese re open today, Tuesday, October 8,

PepsiCo says inflation and higher borrowing costs over the last few years continue to impact consumer spending – Prepared Remarks.PepsiCo – Expect 2024 inflationary pressures to moderate vs prior year, but some commodity costs to remain elevated.PepsiCo: “Believe our snack categories remain attractive.”PepsiCo – Continue to see long runway of profitable growth for international business.PepsiCo:

China’s stock market has experienced a meteoric rise, with the Shanghai Composite surging by as much as 36% from the September low at one point today. However the profit-taking started immediately, with the opening print today as the high. The problem with this rally is that it’s been built on a shaky foundation and looks

I will support additional rate cuts if progress on inflation continues as expected.I want a balanced approach to make progress on inflation and avoid an undesireable slowdown in jobs and economic growth.Our approach to any policy decision will continue to be data dependent.If downside risks to employment escalates, cutting rates more quickly may be appropriate.If

The major US stock indices retraced their gains from Friday’s trade. On Friday, Dow rose 341 pointsS&P index rose 51.13 pointsNASDAQ rose 219.37 point. In trading today, Dow industrial average fell -398.51 points or -0.94% at 41954.24S&P index fell -55.13 points or -0.96% at 5695.94.NASDAQ index fell minus 2.3.95 points or -1.18% at 17923.90. The

National Australia Bank business survey September 2024 Business confidence -2 prior -5 Business conditions +7 prior +4 NAB commentary: “Some of last month’s fall in confidence was reversed in September but confidence remains well below average,” “Interestingly, as we think we are passing through the weakest point in economic growth for this cycle, business conditions

Riksbank’s Bunge: We are more confident that the period of high inflation is behind us.Riksbank’s Bunge: At the same time, we are in a mild downturn and it is important that the Swedish economy now recovers. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.68 billion (revised to -$0.29 billion)Exports $64.31 billion vs $65.66 billion prior (revised to $64.94 billion)Imports $65.41 billion vs $64.97 billion prior (revised to $65.22 billion) This data was delayed but has now crossed and points to some modest further downside risks to Q3 Canadian growth. This article was written by Adam Button

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. The next key event to watch will be the US CPI report on Thursday.

Iran’s foreign minister to visit Saudi Arabia and regional nations to address escalating tensions Full Story on PiQ Suite Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other regional countries to discuss stopping what he described as Israel’s “crimes” in Gaza and Lebanon. Gulf Arab states, while neutral in the Iran-Israel conflict, continue

Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment for October 2024, up 6.2% m/m from September, to 89.8. Below 100 is net negative, but its not as bad as it was at least. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: China’s NDRC press conference met with disappointment, several Fed speakers due FULL NOTE APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the negative lead from Wall St; China’s NDRC press conference was met with disappointment.European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.8% after

Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday include Kugler, Bostic, Collins, JeffersonECB board member Isabel Schnabel will be speaking TuesdayRBA’s Hauser says Bank must remain strong in fight against inflationChina NDRC conference continues, AUD slips a little furtherAUD/USD dipping as China’s NDRC press conference gets underwayBank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking on TuesdayChina stockmarkets leaping higher

Iran Warns Israel of Stronger Retaliation if Attacked Amid Rising Tensions Full Story on PiQ Suite Iran has issued a warning to Israel, stating that any attack on its infrastructure will be met with stronger retaliation. Following a missile strike on Israel last week and the threat of further escalation, tensions in the region are

China’s top economic planner expressed confidence in meeting its 2024 economic and social development targets, supported by accelerated fiscal spending and the early release of funds from the 2025 budget. Full Story on PiQ Suite While stimulus measures initially boosted market sentiment, challenges persist due to global trade volatility, rising protectionism, and internal economic pressures,

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Inflation in the Euro Area converged towards goal. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Chief Economist at Westpac NZ, Kelly Eckhold, says there is some commentary about that a 75bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could happen at the Bank’s meeting tomorrow, Wednesday, October 9, 2024. Eckhold sees a 75bp rate cut as not very likely, and not appropriate right now. The WPAC analysis

It’s another empty day in terms of data releases with just the US NFIB Small Business Optimism index on the agenda. The consensus sees an uptick to 91.7 vs. 91.2 prior. This is not a market moving report in general. It will likely be another day of choppy price action in FX as the markets

ECB’s Vasle: Inflation risks are abating but there is still some uncertainty.ECB’s Vasle: An October cut doesn’t necessarily mean another in December. ECB’s Vasle: An interest-rate cut in October is an option. I’d say it’s more than just an option looking at the deceleration in EU CPI as well as the dismal growth numbers we’ve

NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 91.2 prior The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in

China’s State Council held special study session on economic policies on Tuesday – State media.China’s Premier Li: Will strengthen policy coordination – State media.China’s Premier Li: Policy implementation should reflect good timing, strength, and pace – State media This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

These explosions could be what’s weighing on sentiment at the moment. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Open to October rate cut. The comments around an October cut are not market moving anymore as the market has already fully priced in such a move weeks ago. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data – Household spending for August 2024 +2.0% m/m expected +0.5%, prior -1.7% -1.9% y/y expected -2.6%, prior +0.1% A decent improvement m/m and not as bad y/y. A yen positive at the margin. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan analysts suggest that U.S. stocks appear overextended following a recent rally, which may increase the risk of market concentration and the chance of a momentum shift. The bank noted that while the U.S. has generally performed better than other regions during market downturns, the fact that U.S. stocks are trading at high price-to-earnings

1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden takes part in a panel discussion on “The changing market environment and shifting global dynamics” at London’s International Capital Markets Conference — The Bank of England is on a rate cutting cycle, the next meeting is November 7, with expectations of

ECB’s Frank Elderson highlighted growing concerns about weakening economic growth, suggesting that several indicators are pointing to risks becoming a reality. Full Native Story With the European Central Bank remaining open-minded ahead of the October 17th meeting, Elderson emphasized that policy decisions are being made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. This cautious approach reflects the ECB’s

A social media outlet is posting a comment : JEROME POWELL: PENCILS IN POLICY PATH “SLIGHTLY ABOVE” THE MEDIAN I have no information that Powell is speaking. I have not seen any other source reporting such a comment. I suggest it is an error. But, still, ES dropped … bouncing back now: This article was

Wages data Japan for August 2024. Total cash earnings +3.0% y/y expected +3.1%, prior +3.6% Inflation adjusted real wages -0.6% y/y Overtime pay +2.6% y/y Disappointing data on wages on balance and not as yen positive as it could be, at the margin (BOJ wants higher wagers to drive inflation) This article was written by

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech, “Financial Conditions, the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” at a Money Marketeers of New York University Inc. event. More rate cuts likely given economic outlook.Won’t predict timing or size of future Fed easings.Personal rate outlook is above Fed’s median view.Costs of easing too much outweigh easing too little.Supported

Nasdaq Forecast: Key Levels to Watch as Bear Flag Forms The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is currently showing signs of a potential breakdown from its ascending channel, a pattern commonly associated with bearish price movement. As traders and investors closely monitor this development, understanding the technical setup and market drivers is essential. Below, we highlight the

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams suggested that further rate cuts will be appropriate over time, aligning with Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook for gradual reductions. Full Story on PiQ Suite Williams told the FT: “I personally expect that it will be appropriate again to bring interest rates down over time,” “Right now,

Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting minutes Board discussed scenarios for lowering and raising interest rates in the future.Board members felt not enough had changed from previous meetings, and that the current cash rate best balanced risks to inflation and the labor market.Future financial conditions might need to be tighter or looser than at present

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s ‘state planner’. The press conference was much hyped for another big dose of stimulus. So far there has been nothing of note. AUD and other FX is drifting off a bit on the disappointment. Chinese markets are coming back from

Global Times with the info: China’s total cross-regional flow of people during the weeklong National Day holidays from October 1 to 7 is estimated to be about 2.008 billion trips, with an average daily year-on-year growth of 4.1%, preliminary statistics from the Ministry of Transport show on Tuesday. ps. markets in China are opening: China’s

The ECB next meet on October 17. A 25bp rate cut is expected. 0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: Chairing of keynote session by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice 1015 GMT / 0615 US Eastern time: Keynote speech and fireside chat by ECB board

Unconfirmed reports of explosions in Iran, Isfahan. Isfahan is the site of key Iranian nuclear facilities Iranian Media and Channels are continuing to deny any attack /incident in the Isfahan Province This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Times listed are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0700/0300 Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Global Inflation” before hybrid European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 20241645/1245 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon2000/1600 Federal

So far at the press conference its upbeat comments about how great the economy is. NDRC Chairman says China’s economy is largely stableChina’s economy is facing a more complex internal and external environmentsnew policies will improve health of economic actorsFully confident of achieving 2024 economic growth goals This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan economy minister Akazawa: Decrease in real wages for first time in three months is not a good newsGovt will create environment where real wages continue to rise Referring to the data earlier: Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August (expected +3.1%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, the European Central Bank provided a transcript of remarks from Executive Board member Piero Cipollone made in an interview with Austrian public broadcaster ORF conducted back on September 27. Sheesh, took ’em a while! In summary, Cipollone’s comments point to a rate cut at the Bank’s October 17 meeting, a result widely expected in

ICYMI, via a Goldman Sachs note on Friday, the firm raised its targets for the US benchmark S&P 500 index: 6000 by end 2024 (their prior forecast was 5600)6300 within 12 months (prior 6000)add that these targets may be ‘too low’ GS cite: “our economists’ forecast for U.S. GDP growth is above consensus”higher margin growth

From the Federal Reserve: 2200 GMT /1800 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic moderates “Dynamic Business of Professional Sports” conversation before the Atlanta Fed’s Leading Voice Series, in Atlanta, Ga2230 GMT /1830 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and

I posted info on this yesterday. ICYMI: A press conference has been scheduled for Tuesday (when mainland Chinese markets reopen after the week-long holiday) by the state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC). It’ll cover the topic of “systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies, the

The USDCAD has broken above the swing area between 1.3615 and 1.3622 (see earlier video). Earlier today, the price extended above its 200-day moving average at 1.36012, and then based against the moving average before moving higher. The buyers continue to push and are now looking toward the high price from September which came in

Credit Agricole reports that the Australian dollar (AUD) has become the largest long position in G10 FX, while the Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to hold the largest short position, according to their latest FX positioning model. Key Points: AUD Positioning: The AUD has overtaken other currencies to become the largest long position in G10 FX,

Balance of risks have shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher inflationOverall the US economy is resilientNot seeing signs of resurgent inflationReduction in new rents gives us confidence that housing inflation will come down More to come as he participates in a moderated discussion. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Kashkari: The balance of risks has shifted towards higher employmentUS September employment trends 108.48 vs 109.04 priorBank of Italy: Small deviations in gov’t budget could jeopardize deficit plansHurricane Milton rapidly intensifies into Category 5 hurricaneECB’s Holzman: Inflation fight is far from overFTX liquidation plan receives court approvalReports of explosions in central IsraelUS offered Israel

The price of crude oil is trading at $77.22 that’s up $2.83 or 3.81%. The high price reached $77.36. The low price was at $73.65. Crude oil futures settled at $77.14 up $2.76 or 3.71%. Expectations of a retaliatory strike against Iran is leading to the surge. Today was the first anniversary of the terrorist

The major US stock indices are trading to lows for the day. The Dow industrial average is leading with a decline of -1%. The declines are led by Travelers, Amazon, Walt Disney. The low for the tail reached 41891.81. Earlier, the price fell below its 100 hour moving average of 42071.77. The low price from

Aside from the usual geopolitical headaches-especially in the Middle East, which appears to be on the brink of a major war, investors last week kept a close eye on the dockers’ strike at several U.S. ports. The problem arose over a six-year contract that was due to expire on September 30. However, the port owners

The S&P index is trading near lows for the day at their -27.7 points or -0.47% have 5723.90. The low price has reached 5722.27. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is currently testing its 50 hour moving average at 5722.42 (black moving average line in the chart above). A move below that level would

Western Japan Firms Expect China Slowdown to Persist, Says BOJ Official Full Story on PiQ Suite Many companies in western Japan, particularly in electronics, are adjusting their business plans to account for a prolonged slowdown in exports to China, according to Bank of Japan’s Osaka branch. These firms also prefer stable exchange rate movements, given

The moves were mostly minor to start the week but generally to the upside after a poor week last week. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.2%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report has some people rethinking the path of rates but this chart is a reminder that jobs data is undoubtedly slacking. The employment trends data is a composite of already-released data and it’s now slightly below pre-pandemic levels. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US jobs report on Friday showed much stronger than expected job growth. Stocks moved higher. Yields moved higher. The market adjusted for the potential for no rate hike in November. The expectation is now up to 14.5% (with 85% for a cut of 25 basis points). A couple weeks ago the markets were preparing

No surprise here but this kind of talk won’t stop the ECB from continuing in an easing cycle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the September CPI report will show core inflation rising by 0.26%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. While goods inflation is expected to improve due to used cars and airfares, services inflation is projected to decelerate. The report’s implications for headline and core inflation will guide expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

The AUDUSD has fallen below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.67813 and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September low (also at that level). The fall below that level has led to more selling with the pair moving toward a swing area between 0.67487 and 0.67604. Getting

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, the calendar today is a bit dull with the Eurozone retail sales as the only economic release. The focus today will likely be on the Fedspeak following the surprisingly strong NFP report last Friday. Overall, the market is either going to go with the recent US jobs data

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rallied strongly last week following the tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. We also got some key technical breakouts that increased the bullish momentum. Last Friday, we also got a strong US NFP report which cast aside recessionary fears and strengthened the case for a future pick up

Hurricane Milton is now blowing at 135 kt, which is a Categoy-5 storm, according to the US NHC and has flight-level wind peaks at 146 kt. It has intensified faster than expected and a small eye has now developed. “By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause

Via the latest Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG survey growth in starting pay for permanent roles was the lowest since February 2021.monthly index of permanent job placements continued a two-year decline, though the hiring drop was less severe than in August.increase in available candidates for rolesvacancies dropped for the 11th consecutive month at

HSBC expect a 25bp rate cut at the November 6 – 7 meeting, followed by another at the December 17 – 18 meeting, then in January, March, May and June, for a total of six consecutive 25 rate cuts. The calendar for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2025: The forecast comes HSBC Global

The reports are continuing of an ‘imminent’ Israel attack on Iran and no one is willing to fade oil until it’s clear what is being hit. In all likelihood there will be a further spike if/when the strikes start followed by a ‘sell the fact’ trade so long as the damage to export facilities isn’t

Goldman Sachs has exited its long GBP/CHF position with a small profit last week, noting that Sterling has underperformed its usual risk beta. Despite recent tactical setbacks influenced by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey’s comments and geopolitical developments, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on the British pound, supported by structural drivers and a

Some headlines from the Bank of Italy ISTAT revision implies downward mechanical correction of 0.2 pp of GDP from estimate of 1.0%Small deviations from govt’ budget plans could make it difficult to bring deficit below EU’s 3% of GDP limit in 2026Sees slight GDP expansion in Q3 Do European budget rules even matter anymore? They

The NZDUSD has been moving steadily to the downside after peaking at the start of last week near 0.63778. The low price today has reached 0.6116 so far – 262 pips in a relatively short period of time. In doing so the price has started to extend into a cluster of technical levels including the:

FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new analysis exploring how anticipated U.S. interest rate adjustments could influence the cryptocurrency market, with a particular focus on Bitcoin. According to FBS analysts, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies play a significant role in shaping market dynamics, including investor behavior toward digital assets. FBS analysts reference the

The USDCAD is running to the upside in the early North American session to start the week, and in the process is ticking above the 200 day moving average 1.3601. Getting and staying above that moving average will be a shift more in favor of the buyers. For the pair, the price in September based

It’s not everyday that major equity benchmarks move like meme stocks. Chinese equities have been an a rip since the country came out with their new stimulus plans, and there has been numerous articles of big players rushing in and desperately trying to get some China exposure. The HK50 below is up nearly 40% since

Market expects a 25bp rate cut from the ECB next week, driven by weak economic sentiment and inflation falling below 2%.Arguments for a cut include worsening growth and inflation outlooks, with disinflationary trends and some ECB officials showing support for a cut.But the bank says there are valid arguments against a cut and point to

The week is off and running. What technical levels are in play for the 3 major currency pairs for today/for the trading week? In this video, I outline and explain where traders should focus not only today, but also as the week progresses. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved sharply lower last week and culminated with the

Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved in October after months of decline, driven by higher expectations despite ongoing dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. Full Story on PiQ Suite The Sentix index rose more than expected, reflecting optimism about potential economic recovery in the region, with rate cuts from the European Central Bank and

Eurozone retail sales YY 0.8% vs 1.0% expected Eurozone retail sales MM 0.2% vs 0.2% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. If we keep getting strong US data, then USDCHF will likely continue to drift

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 52 bps (94% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 142 bps ECB: 50 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 148 bps BoE: 36 bps (93% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 118 bps

The latest data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen and has now become a Category-3 hurricane. “The radar analysis below shows a very strong, compact inner core that continues to intensify quickly,” the NHC said in its latest forecast discussion. That forecast now shows a

If you are a buyer of the USD – of the USDCHF – this is the place to buy. Why? The old “Red Box” (see chart below) that confined the trading range going back to August 20, peaked at 0.85368. The price is down testing that area and also the 38.2% retracement of the move

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India’s central bank has instructed both state-run and private banks to refrain from taking significant short positions against the rupee as it approaches record-low levels. Full Story on PiQ Suite The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened via informal communications to stabilize the currency, which has been under pressure for several trading sessions. This article

The reports of an ‘imminent’ attack from Israel on Iran have been doing the rounds for days now but they’re coming even faster today. That could be because it’s Monday and everyone is back watching or it could be enough smoke to signal fire. Today is also the one-year anniversary of the Oct 7 music

Sector Overview and Performance The U.S. stock market today is a mix of contrasting fortunes, with the healthcare sector showing solid gains, while consumer cyclical encounters significant setbacks. Notably, Pfizer (PFE) stands out with a remarkable rise of 2.48%, leading the healthcare charge alongside other contributors. However, Amazon (AMZN) struggles in the consumer sector, posting

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the new trading week. Stocks are lower/US yields are higher the day after the better than expected jobs report on Friday. The expectations for a 25 bp cut at the next meeting

Fundamental Overview Gold lost some momentum recently following better than expected US data. Real yields rose and started to put some pressure on gold. This week we have the US CPI report on Thursday, and we might see some hedging into a potentially higher than expected Core measure given the commentary in the latest US

The US and Canadian economies appear to be heading in the opposite directions and that’s lifted USD/CAD to a three-week high. The pair is up 30 pips to 1.3601 today in the fifth day of gains. The latest push saw the pair edge above offers at 1.3600 that restrained the pair in early European trade.

US economic data is nil today but we will get a chance to hear from Fed speakers as the market has pared November rate cut pricing down to just 88% for 25 bps and a 12% chance of no change. First up is the Fed hawk and dissenter Bowman at 1 pm ET. She is

I posted over the weekend on Saudi Aramco raising the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmarkvs. expected 65 cents / bbl. On the other hand, the Saudi the state owned oil producer cut prices to

Coming up from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, October 8, 2024 are September meeting minutes: at 11.30am Sydney time, which is 0030 GMT and 2030 US Eastern time (Tuesday evening)the details of the Bank’s September 2024 monetary policy decision Following at midday Sydney time (0100 GMT / 2100 US Eastern time) is a

United Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Sep)Actual: 0.3% 🟢 Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.3% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Hurricane hunters sees hurricane Milton as a major hurricaneING says an October ECB cut is not guaranteedAll eyes on Chinese equities after last week’s bank holidaysUS 10-year treasury yields back above 4%Risk is trading mostly cautious so far across major asset classesEurozone retail sales YY 0.8% vs 1.0% expectedReserve Bank of India Urges Banks to

Japan Leading Index (Aug) Actual: 106.7 🔴 Expected: 107.2 Previous: 109.3 Leading Index Actual: -2.6% Previous: 0.2% Coincident Indicator (MoM) Actual: -3.7% Previous: 3.1% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 15% after better-than-expected jobs report Full Story on PiQ Suite Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15%, following the latest employment report that showed better-than-expected data. The Wall Street

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ruled out raising the capital gains tax, affirming his government’s commitment to maintain the current 20% flat rate on investment income. Full Story on PiQ Suite This move is aimed at encouraging investment and reducing the tax burden on high-income earners, especially those who gain significantly from stock and

Markets are trading with a negative bias so far this morning, with a lot for markets to think about. Equity futures have taken a push lower this morning with major benchmarks trading lower apart from CN50 and HK50 which is trading higher (all eyes on China markets opening up tomorrow after the bank holiday).On the

The major centres in Australia, Sydney and Melbourne, along with some other areas, moved clocks forward one hour over the weekend to adjust for daylight saving time. If you are trading Australian markets you may need to adjust your trading times. Via the Reserve Bank of Australia website: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

A very light data agenda ahead for Monday, October 7, 2024. A couple of Asia time zone holidays to note: Mainland China remains on holiday today, markets reopen Tuesday, local timeit’s a partial holiday in Australia (Sydney is out) Note also, Australia switched to daylight saving time over the weekend, local clocks in the two

This week is light in terms of economic events, which is typical for the period following the release of the U.S. NFP report. Much of the market activity this week is expected to be influenced by geopolitical events such as the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Australia will release the minutes from its

NHC says NOAA Hurricane Hunters find Milton a major hurricane.NHC says Hurricane Milton about 750 mi (1210 km) west-southwest of Tampa Florida; maximum sustained winds 120 mph (195 km/h). This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

10-year treasury yields are back above 4% in early Monday trading. It’s been a bit of a perfect storm for bonds: Inflation expectations jolting higher alongside oil pricesBetter than expected US data pushing back against recession fears (this shouldn’t have been a fear but anyway)Big repricing in unrealistic expectations for aggressive cuts Even though all

Goldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight, due to optimism over Beijing’s stimulus measures. Bloomberg (gated) with the report. In (very) brief: Chinese equities could rise another 15%-20% if authorities deliver on policy promises.Valuations are below historical averages, earnings could improve, and global investor interest remains low.Recent stimulus measures have bolstered confidence

Japan Finance Minister Kato: Stated that a weak yen has both merits and demerits.Said there is a need to monitor how excessive forex movements will affect corporate activities and households.Emphasized that action must be taken if necessary, while monitoring the impacts of forex movements on economic and household activities.Indicated that specific policy steps would be

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. will monitor FX moves including speculative movement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Business climate in German retail clouds over, Ifo says Full Story on PiQ Suite The business climate in the German retail sector clouded over in September, according to an Ifo survey published on Monday. “Consumers are unsettled about the economic policy environment. That means that no further dynamic growth in private consumer spending can be

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks began on the front foot following last Friday’s gains on Wall Street; eyes remain on geopolitics LINK APAC stocks began the week on the front foot following last Friday’s gains on Wall St owing to the blockbuster jobs report.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open

Last week I posted a glowing assessment of the US economy from Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics: US economy – “There is no denying it: among the best performing economies in 35+ years” In that post I warned: perhaps the FOMC should take the foot off the accelerator, or least lighten its touch

Full Story on PiQ Suite The Bank of Japan said on Monday price hikes were broadening, as many companies saw the need to keep raising wages due to structural labour shortages. In a quarterly report, the BOJ revised up its assessment for two of nine regional areas in Japan. It left the assessment for the

China’s gold reserves sat at 72.8 million fine troy ounces at the end of September, for a fifth straight month Data via the People’s Bank of China released on Monday. In USD terms 191.47bn in September vs. 182.98bn in August FX reserves 3.316tln USD vs. 3.288 tln end-August. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Melbourne Institute Inflation in September 2024 0.1% m/m prior -0.1% 2.6% y/y, almost to the mid point of the Reserve Bank of Australia 2 – 3% target band prior 2.5% Core (trimmed mean) 0.1% m/m prior 0% Official inflation data from Australia will be published on October 30 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This

Trump spoke on Sunday, said he would place up to 200% tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico. The big 3 US auto makers all have plants building cars for the US market in Mexico. Trump had previously promised 100% tariffs on imported cars and trucks. But on Sunday ratcheted this up to 200%: “We’ll put

Japan finance minister Kato says there are pros and cons to the weak yenFederal Reserve speakers Monday include Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic and MusalemGoldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweightEuropean Central Bank speakers on Monday include chief economist Philip LaneChina gold reserves in September unchanged from August, 5th month in a rowAUD traders

Mon: Mainland China market holidayTue: RBA Minutes, EIA STEOWed: RBNZ Announcement, RBI Announcement, Bank of Israel Announcement, German Trade Balance (Aug), FOMC MinutesThu: ECB Minutes, Norwegian CPI (Sep), US CPI (Sep), French BudgetFri: BoC Business Outlook Survey & Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Canadian Jobs Report (Sep), BoK Announcement, UK GDP (Aug), US PPI Final

Full Story on PiQ Suite BP drops oil output target in strategy reset BP has abandoned a target to cut oil and gas output by 2030 as CEO Murray Auchincloss scales back the firm’s energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. BP is currently in talks to

Germany German Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) Actual: -5.8% 🔴 Expected: -1.9% Previous: 2.9% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: Speech by ECB board member Piero Cipollone at Deutsche Bundesbank’s symposium “Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe” 0735 GMT / 0345 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane at ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice 1345

European Central Bank Governing Council policymaker and French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau, in an interview with an Italian newspaper, La Repubblica. ECB will probably cut interest rates on October 17economic growth is weak, bringing the risk that inflation will undershoot its 2% target”In the last two years our main risk was to

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research report on the views on their Reserve Bank of New Zealand “Shadow Board’. The NZIER Shadow Board remains split over the extent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) next move on the Official Cash Rate (OCR) ahead of the upcoming October Monetary Policy Review. Half of

It’s a packed agenda of Fed speakers this week. Getting us started Monday are: 1700/1300 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman participates in conversation before the Independent Bankers Association of Texas Annual Convention1750/1350 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall

We’ve been following along with the political machinations in Japan that, net, are pushing back against BOJ rate hike plans. Reuters posted this piece late last week, ICYMI, and have updated it today. Worth a read for a summary of where the politics of rate hikes in Japan is at: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benchmark index is up more than 2% on the session so far. Its hitting 31 month highs. the tech index is +3% There are expectations of more stimulus announcements tomorrow: Senior Chinese officials briefing Tuesday, steps to implement economic growth policies Mainland Chinese markets reopen after the week long holiday tomorrow,

Senior officials from China’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a press briefing on Tuesday regarding measures to implement policies aimed at boosting economic growth. The news comes via a notice from the State Council Information Office. five officials, including NDRC chair Zheng Shanjie will participate in the press

An early update for USD/JPY, which caught another substantial bid after the blockbuster US jobs report on Froday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs report is strong. USD, yields and stocks rise I had an outlook from Standard Chartered to post, analysts there were looking for 149 … and here we are. had expected

German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported over the weekend on a dour forecast from German’s economy ministry, planning a downgrade to its 2024 economic growth forecast. The new forecast will be for negative 0.2% growth, i.e. a shrinking economy, for 2024 prior forecast was for +0.3%2023 recorded a 0.3% contraction For 2025, the forecast will be:

Via Iran’s state media, citing a spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation. flights from all Iran’s airports will be cancelled until 6 a.m. local time (0230 GMT) on Monday from 9 p.m. on Sundayflights cancelled due to ‘operational restrictions’, no further detail was given Perhaps indicative of further missile launches to come? Whatever it is,

The data is linked from here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs report is strong. USD, yields and stocks rise The jobs report came in super-string, smashing above even the highest estimates: US non-farm payrolls data due imminently – the critical key ranges for estimates to watchWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0970USD/JPY 148.77GBP/USD 1.3114USD/CHF 0.8589USD/CAD 1.3570AUD/USD 0.6789NZD/USD 0.6158 A couple of items

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Eurozone Retail Sales. (China on holiday)Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Meeting Minutes, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: Japan PPI, ECB Meeting Minutes, US CPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.Friday: UK GDP, Canada Labour Market report, US PPI, US University of Michigan Consumer

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Navigating the Next Moves 🛢️📈 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan, an experienced market analyst at ForexLive.com, tracking crude oil for you today as well as what I am looking at. Let’s dive into the insights you need to make informed trading decisions. 🌊 Recent Rally Highlights 🚀 Strong

Mixed news out of Saudi Arabia, info comes via Bloomberg citing a pricing list they’ve seen: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmarkvs. expected 65 cents / bblcut the price of all

China began its week-long National Day holiday on Tuesday October 1. In the week leading up to the holiday beginning Chinese authorities announced an array of economic stimulus measures. SOme of the measures were aimed specifically at the property sector, such as: reductions in down-payment ratiosreductions in mortgage ratesan easing in property buying restrictions China’s

Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos is out with a tweet saying: A very solid September payroll report probably takes a lot of the drama out of the November Fed meeting Likely leaves officials on course for a 25 basis point cut. Looking at the probability of a 25 basis point cut, that is now at

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority is Preparing to expand its operation in southern Lebanon, The Army will send to additional brigades to southern LebanonIsrael is still preparing to strike IranIt did not specify the place and time for that invasion.Will make a decision to respond to Orion independently without any relationship with third partiesIsraeli seeks to

The RBNZ will meet next week and expectations are a 50 basis point cut (they meet on Wednesday in NZ). The fall today and the price below a swing area between 0.6167 and 0.61796. That area will now be close resistance. On the downside the 100 day moving average comes in at 0.6121. The 50%

Geopolitics in the middle east: US military carries out strikes against multiple Houthi targets in Yemen From US Pres. Biden HE would think about alternatives to striking oil fieldsIsraelis have not concluded about what they are going to do about Iran’s strikeUS and Israeli teams are constantly in contactNot going to make a decision immediately,

As we head into the close, the EURUSD is trading near lows for the week. The strong US jobs data today helped to push the pair below a swing area between 1.1001 and 1.1014, and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0995. That area will now be

US stocks moved higher despite yields moving higher as US jobs showed strength and the striking dockworkers reached a tentative agreement averting a prolonged closure of key port’s A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 341.16 points or 0.81% at 42352.75 S&P index rose 51.13 points or 0.90% at 5751.07 NASDAQ

WSJs Timiraos: A solid September payroll takes a lot of November Fed meetingUS major indices close the day higher helped by strong jobsWhite House economic advisor Brainerd expects impact on employment from hurricane HeleneOil prices move lower after present Biden says he woul not support striking an oilfieldREUTERS: US military carries out strikes against multiple

Crude price have moved lower after Pres. Biden said that he would think about other alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields. The high price of oil reached $75.53. It is currently trading at $74.22. That’s still up around $0.50 on the day. Crude oil is now settling the day up $0.67 or 0.91% at $74.38.

As the week comes to a close, the USDJPY is trading near the highs for the day and the week. The move to the upside today off the unexpected US jobs report, was able to take the price above a key swing area ceiling around the 147.33 level and also above the 38.2% retracement of

White House economic advisor anticipates that the hurricane aniline impact will be felt in the employment statistics for that month, and continue to expect that in the US, will continue to see low gas prices. According to AAA: National average for a gallon of gas fell by three cents to $3.19 despite challenges like Hurricane

China firmly opposes EU EV tariffs calls them unfair and WTO rule violationsChina urges EU to delay EV tariffs and avoid trade tensionsECB’s De Guindos says inflation to near 2% by 2025 but too early for victory lapsEU Moves Forward with Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Member VoteObama to campaign for Harris in final month

The USDCAD is higher after the shorter than expected US jobs report, but what are the technicals telling traders. In this video I take a look at the key levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A note from JPM US chief economist Michael Feroli, his take on Federal Reserve independence under a second Trump term. As well as existing features that can help insulate the Fed from political pressure, for example: firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell would be difficult JPM point to financial markets: “Another possible check on an attempted

It looks like Treasuries want to test 4%. Back-tracking a few weeks, the 3.6% level was a recession trade but with the US economy looking stronger now, it’s safer to price the bottom of Fed funds at 3% or 3.50%. Add in some term premium and 4% makes sense. I expect some strong bids if

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower in US trading today on the back of the stronger US jobs report. The move lower took the price below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 11 low at 0.6819 and also the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6823. On the

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count shows: Oil rigs -5 at 479 Natural gas rigs +3 at 102 Total rigs -2 at 585 The price of crude oil is trading up $1.65 at $75.36. That is near session highs This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

I posted this info earlier, during the Asian timezone. But now its getting close to data time! Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time, which is 1230 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result.The number in the column next

The US dollar has moved to the upside after the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The nonfarm payroll was much stronger than expected at 250 4K versus 140 K estimate. That’s a highest level since March when nonfarm payrolls rose by 310K and is the third highest for the year

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

As the North American session, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The rundown of the expectations shows. Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep): Forecast 140k, Previous 142kUnemployment Rate (Sep): Forecast 4.2%, Previous 3.8%Average Earnings MM (Sep): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%Average Earnings YY

I suspected this would be the case. We’ll hear from Goolsbee later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Decent – and level-headed – read from Reuters on possible ways that Israel could strike back at Iran. Full Story on PiQ Suite GO AFTER IRAN’S MILITARY INSTALLATIONS Some analysts believe Israel is most likely to respond by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in Tuesday’s attacks.

EU governments face pivotal vote on Chinese EV tariffs Full Story on PiQ Suite European Union members face a pivotal vote on Friday on whether to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles in the bloc’s highest profile trade case, which risks retaliation from Beijing. The EU’s proposal can be

Given the momentum, I would expect all the Fed watchers to shift to 25 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economic forecasting isn’t easy. At various points over the last two years it looked like the US was slowing down dramatically. At the start of 2023, a looming recession call was the consensus forecast. This year, as some economic indicators deteriorated, those calls returned. It was understandable — high interest rates hurt the economy. In

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: says PM Ishiba has instructed the compilation of a comprehensive economic packagea supplementary budget will be compiled after the lower house election Perhaps even more stimulus in Japan will feed into higher inflation and higher rates. I guess that’s the hope? Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi This article was written

The US looks like it’s heading for a soft landing. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0510% compared to 4.220% previously and adds downside risks to the Fed’s year-end dot at 4.4%. It also reverses some recent upwards momentum. The rates market is now pricing in just a 9% chance of a 50 basis point cut

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.7%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC +0.9%UK FTSE 100 flatSpain Ibex +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +1.3% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.8%Germany DAX -2.2%France CAC -3.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.5%Spain IBEX -2.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.2% The market wasn’t happy about talk of corporate tax increases in France and Italy. This article was written by

Times are listed GMT/US Eastern time: 0615/0215 Keynote speech by ECB board member Claudia Buch at 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organised by Lithuanian Central Bank 0700/0300 Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva and Bank of Portugal governor Mario Centeno to speak at an event 1000/0600 Remarks by ECB Vice President Luis de

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved down to test the low of what has been a 200 or so pip trading range during yesterday’s trading. MOve below 1.0995 (the 50% of the move up from August 1) and the swing area between 1.1001 to 1.1014 opens the door for more do USDJPY: Has a ceiling This article

The US jobs report has sent the USDCHF, finally outside of the up and down trading range that has mostly confined the pair between 0.8399 and 0.85368. The price was trading near 0.85166 ahead of the report, and has now surged up to 0.8607. At the high, the price has tested the 61.8% retracement of

The market is pricing in just a 6% chance of a cut. Pricing in Fed fund futures shows 25.9%. Is it too early for someone to make the ‘hold’ call? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We haven’t heard from NY Fed President John Williams since the FOMC decision but we will today. Unfortunately, he might not touch on the outlook for rates. He’s delivering opening remarks at a conference about “The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs”. That’s the kind of topic that invites bland throw-away lines. We’ll

EU Moves Forward with Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Member Vote Full Story on PiQ Suite The European Commission announced it has secured enough support to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, marking a significant trade decision that could provoke retaliation from Beijing. The tariffs, aimed at countering what

EU countries do not vote clearly for or against tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, leaving European Commission to decide – EU sources. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.