Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% The DAX is going to need a push to get to new highs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has been running higher over the last week with the pair raising up near 300 pips in one week of trading. That’s a big move in a short period of time as the market trends to the upside. For a fundamental view of the price action, see Adam’s post here. Tomorrow the Canadian

Prior week 225KInitial jobless claims 258K vs 230K estimate4-week moving average initial jobless claims 231K vs 224.25KPrior week of continuing claims 1.826M revised to 1.819MContinuing Claims 1.861M vs 1.830M estimate4-week moving average of continueing claims 1.832M vs 1.828M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 28 were in Michigan (+1,187), Washington

There have been a series of ‘close call’ type meetingsThere will probably be more close call meetingsStill a lot of data coming in on what’s next, nothing is ever not on the tableWe don’t want to get ahead or behindJob market has cooled to a level of full employmentFed projections show vast majority believes that

As the NA session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest of the major currencies. The USD is sitting near the middle of the range of currencies with a modest downward bias before the release of the key CPI data at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for a gain

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors main house price balance measures the difference between surveyors seeing falls and rises in house prices It rose to +11 in September expected +4August was 0the September move into positive territory is the first since October 2022 sales and enquiries also rose RICS comment: “A further unwinding in monetary

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US CPI report. The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In

The market reaction to the hotter US CPI report is tough to square. The dollar initially jumped to the best levels of the day but quickly turned lower. Core and headline CPI was both 0.1 pp higher than expected on a m/m basis and there were no obvious special factors driving the move. The move

The upcoming Asia-Pacific session is likely to be a volatile one. The first fear is that the call between Biden and Netanyahu today will preceed strikes against Iran, including against oil infrastructure. Axios reports that a ‘major attack against Iran’ could be coming, though it doesn’t speculate on the timeline. The report says that Israel’s

Barkin is speaking in a ‘fireside chat’ and I’ll update his comments as they cross. Inflation is down but we can’t declare victorySees risk that lower rates boost housing demand This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations October 2024 comes in at 4.0% a sharp drop from September’s 4.4% The Reserve Bank of Australia target band is 2 to 3% for inflation. Current official CPI and cash rates (this from the RBA website): The most recent communication from the RBA is not dovish: RBA

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for USD/JPY at the 149.50 level. And that could help to act as a bit of a magnet to lock price action in before we get to the US CPI report later in the day. The pair

The NZDUSD traded to the highest level in 2024 just last week (eight trading days ago). The high price reached 0.63778. Today after they are beyond the cut rates by 50 basis points, the price low traded to 0.60516. That’s 327 pips in a trading days. Technically the decline seen in trading today has taken

The US CPI report is due at the bottom of the hour and eyes will be on the ongoing creep higher in Treasury yields. The front end is indicating that the front-loading of rate cuts along with good economic data will lead to a soft landing. The question is: When do you price out a

We are witnessing record high wage increases in JapanPolicy board is going to look at the totality of the data as it makes decisionsIt will be done on a meeting by meeting basisReal interest rates are still negativeWill have more data on pass through of wage hikes on prices later in the yearAlso more data

The dollar has been on a tear in the past week or so and that has drove EUR/USD lower to break under 1.1000. Traders have moved to price out the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed next month. And with odds of a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB for

Panel participation by Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), at Macquarie University in Sydney scheduled for 6.45pm Sydney time on Thursday, October 10, 2024 0745 GMT, 0345 US Eastern time I don’t have a topic for this. The last we heard from the RBA was in the minutes of the September meeting. Not dovish: RBA minutes:

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause

Inflation expected to rise again in the latter part of this year – ECB accountsChina imposes sanctions on three US military firms on Taiwan arms salesNew Whales Drop $100B on BTC, is It Time for New Rally?BOJ’s Himino: We have enough time to carefully monitor financial marketsWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ’s Himino: We will

Later today, Thursday, 10 October 2024, we get the US consumer inflation data for September. Due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time. What to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column

Info comes via Barrons (may be gated). Scott Bessent is described as “one of Donald Trump’s closest economic advisers”. He has proposed that Trump nominate and seek Senate confirmation of Powell’s replacement well over a year before Powell’s term ends in May 2026. In effect, a ‘shadow’ Chiar. The approved nominee would need to wait

Bitcoin (BTC) is grabbing attention with new whale transactions and rising ETF inflows. Recently, over $100 billion has been poured into Bitcoin by large players, known as whales. Could this mean a new price rally for BTC? In this article, we’ll break down how these inflows might change the market, whether now is a good

Ueda told PM Ishiba that BOJ has enough time to carefully monitor financial marketsThere is no silver bullet in better communicationEach approach comes with pros and consNo clear consensus among policymakers about future approach on better communicationBut there is a strong will to learn from what happened in August If you need to recall, there

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause

85.6% of Japanese households expect prices to rise a year from now (previously 87.5%)94.7% of households feel present level of prices are higher compared to a year ago (previously 95.0%)6.6% of households anticipate economic conditions to improve a year from now (previously 7.9%)56.5% of households anticipate economic conditions to be roughly the same a year

Japan government junior coalition partner says utility and fuel subsidies should continueUS CPI data due Thursday. Here are the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino will be speaking soonMore on “China’s Central Bank Launches Swap Facility to Boost Stock Market”PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today

Today is the US CPI Day. Everyone’s waiting for the release so nothing else will matter today. After the CPI release, we will hear from a couple of Fed speakers, including NY Fed President Williams, so that’s going to be something to keep a close eye on. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US September CPI The

Headline on this is here from earlier: PBOC to establish securities, funds to aid capital market stability The Wall Street Journal have a recap on this now. The Journal is gated but here is the link if you can access it. that eligible brokers and insurers can now pledge assets such as bonds, stock ETFs,

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.1% There is a more tepid mood among European indices, with US futures also reflecting similar sentiment. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% and that’s not leaving major currencies with much to work with. The antipodeans are marginally higher, backed by more

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 46 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 135 bps ECB: 50 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 145 bps BoE: 35 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 116 bps BoC: 69 bps (68% probability of

ICYMI: FOMC Minutes: A substantial majority of participants supported a 50 basis point cut The Wall Street Journal (gated) have followed up with a piece on the disagreements at the meeting: a substantial majority favoring the larger half-percentage-point reduction that was ultimately approved, but others favoring a smaller quarter-point cut. the minutes revealed an unspecified

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. This week, the greenback extended the gains as the market started to price in some chances of a pause

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes with US futures also showing a more tepid mood, down 0.1% on the day. Looking to Asia, Chinese equities are bouncing back after the setback yesterday with the CSI 300 index up 2.5% and Shanghai Composite up 2.8%. Both indices returned from the holiday with a

From Japan today we get the September Producer Price Index (PPI), also known in Japan as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their outputis calculated by the Bank of Japan Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which

The Reuters urvey finds that Japanese companies are facing earnings headwinds: 36% of Japanese firms expect to miss H1 earnings targetsRising costs and sluggish sales weighing on performanceTransportation equipment sector struggling, 50% to miss forecastsShipping industry bucking trend, benefiting from Middle East conflicts70% see USD/JPY trading 140-150 by fiscal year-end45% favor monetary policy moves to

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -1.2% The German stats office had suspended the retail sales data release since June due to “IT problems” but are now resuming it as per the regular schedule. Looking at the details, food retail sales contributed a big part to the beat as it rose by 1.9% on the month. There are some methodological

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly Earlier: Fed’s Daly: One or two more Fed rate cuts likely this year More now: I am not worried about accelerating inflationI was more worried about injuring the labor marketWill watch inflation data carefullyLittle evidence that balance sheet expansion has much of a direct effect on

BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino to deliver a speech on Japan’s markets at an event hosted by Bloombergscheduled for 0335 US Eastern time, 0735 GMT It’ll be interesting to hear if he gives any guidance on the likely timing of the next rate hike from the BoJ. Market expectations are around December at present. This

“Substantial majority” supported 50bp cutCommittee gained “greater confidence” inflation moving sustainably toward 2% goalRisks to employment and inflation goals now seen as “roughly in balance”Economic activity expanding at “solid pace”, job gains slowed but unemployment remains lowInflation made “further progress” but still “somewhat elevated”Most participants see balanced risks to inflation outlookSome members would have preferred

So, what’d I miss? The dollar is keeping in good stead over the last week as traders have conceded to pricing in a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed for November now. A soft landing scenario looks more and more certain each day. The odds of a 25 bps rate cut for next month

Analsysts at JP Morgan are still forecasting a 25bp Fed Funds rate cut at the November 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. But, they point to stronger data since the September meeting as a reason why debate at that meeting will raise the question of whether or not be leave the rate unchanged, on

1. A Few A few participants suggested that firms remained reluctant to lay off workers after having difficulty obtaining employees earlier in the post-pandemic period.A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather

Ahead of the CPI data tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM, US stocks closed higher with the S&P and the Dow industrial average both closing at record levels. The NASDAQ index closed higher as well and is now around 1.9% from it’s all time high closing level at 18467.58. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

Record close on the S&P and the Dow.Eyes on the Middle East and weather in the hours aheadCrude oil futures settled at $73.24In the age of AI, here’s an old reminder that technology can advance at lightning speedWhat did a few, some, several, many, a substantial majority of Fed officials agree onFOMC Minutes: A substantial

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Yields in the US have moved higher with the 10-year yield now up 2.8 basis points and the 2-year yield up 3.2 basis points. In addition, the chance of no change in policy in November reached close to 25% today before rotating back down to 20%. It wasn’t long ago that the market was pricing

Info comes via the UK’s Adam Smith Institute (ASI) on the exodus of high net worth individuals from the UK: Today, 4.55% of British residents are millionaires, but the ASI has forecast that this will fall to 3.62% by 2028;The fact that the UK is losing proportionately more millionaires than China or Russia is a

The election in Japan is coming up on Sunday 27 October 2024⁩ Voting will take place for seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Currently the LDP rule in coalition with junior coalition partner Komeito. The leader of Komeito says fuel and utility subsidies should continue ‘for a while’.

more to come September 2024 PPI 0.0% m/m, while its zero that’s higher than August and than the expected expected -0.3%, prior -0.2% +2.8% y/y, a clear beat of the consensus estimate and August expected +2.3%, prior +2.5% Higher than expected is a yen positive at the margin — — The Producer Price Index (PPI)

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins is speaking Reiterates her support for more US rate cuts This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly Fully supported half-point rate cutQuite confident we are on path to 2% inflationWe are at full employmentWith policy rate steady, real rate was risingRising real rate was a recipe for overtightening and injuring the labor marketRate cut was a recalibration, to rightsize rates for the economySize

People’s Bank of China will establish a SFISE (security, funds and insurance companies swap facility) for 500bn yuan. To build capital market stability. At the margin a positive for stocks and markets in the country more generally. Pan Gongsheng, People’s Bank of China governor This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $73.24. That is down -$0.33 or -0.45%. The low price today reached $71.58. The high price extended to $74.41. Technically, looking at the daily chart, the price today fell below its 50 day moving average and the broken 38.2% retracement near $72.60, and rotated to the low of the

IN the kickstart video above for October 9, I take a look at three the major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. As a bonus today, I also take a technical look at the NZDUSD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points. EURUSD: The EURUSD yesterday moved up

MUFG anticipates that the minutes from the September FOMC meeting will provide insights into the level of support for the 50bps rate cut and the current sentiment regarding inflation and the dual mandate. Key Points: Support for the Rate Cut: Market participants will be keen to understand how strong the support was for the 50bps

PiQ on Twitter China’s Finance Ministry to hold fiscal policy briefing on October 12, detailing intensified adjustment China’s Finance Ministry will hold a press briefing on October 12th to provide insights into fiscal policy and economic development. The briefing, scheduled for 10:00 local time, will introduce details on China’s intensified fiscal policy adjustments aimed at

How does 4.06% for ten years sound? That’s what markets will be grappling with as we count down to the results of the 10-year sale at the top of the hour. I thought we would see more bids as 10s crossed 4% the the sellers continue to have the upper hand as US economic data

Bibi will speak with Biden at 10:30 pm ET. That’s an odd time to schedule a call, given that it will be 5:30 am in Tel Aviv. Does that late time hint at something happening today? Netanhayu delivered an ominous speech yesterday, saying “You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 is unchanged at 3.2%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on October 9, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US

Another day of losses for Chinese equities this morning, with the HK50 down close to 3% and the CN50 down close to 8% at the time of writing. In broader equity futures, we are trading marginally lower (apart from the FTSE100). The push lower in volatility yesterday is a slightly better sign, but we’ll need

Upside risks to inflation mean Fed should not rush to reduce ratesI continue to see a meaningful risk inflation could get stuck above targetLowering policy rate gradually would allow time to judge how restrictive monetary policy may or may not beNormalizing policy gradually also allows Fed to ‘best balance’ labor market risksLess restrictive policy will

📈 Technology Sector: Leading the Charge The technology sector is standing out today, driven by significant gains in semiconductor stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) is up 1.01%, underscoring investor confidence in the sector. This momentum is further supported by positive moves from AMD (+0.45%) and ADI (+0.14%). 🚀 Mixed Performance in Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services Amazon

Closing changes for the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +1.0%France CAC +0.6%UK FTSE 100 +0.6%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB +0.5% The DAX has been one of the leaders in the broader rally in global stocks. It gathered bids in the past two hours and finished at the highs of the day. This article

Seven straight days of USD/CAD gains speaks to a strong rejection of what looked like it could be a breakdown in August and September. The chart is a big of a nightmare for technical analysis as it had a break, then a lower low then a snap-back rally into the middle of the old range.

High yield vs 3.648% priorBid to cover 2.48 vs 2.64 prior This isn’t a great result given the climb in yields lately. It’s feast or famine in fixed income as the market tries to sort out whether the US is headed towards recession or reflation. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China’s new yuan loans likely surged in September as stimulus ramps up Full Story on PiQ Suite A Reuters poll suggests that China’s new yuan loans jumped to 1.87 trillion yuan ($264.75 billion) in September, more than doubling August’s total, as the central bank ramps up stimulus to boost the struggling economy. Despite this increase,

The USDCAD extended above its 100-day moving average yesterday, but by the end of the day was trading back below that he moving average level at 1.36513. In the early Asian session, traders took the price even a lower and back below the high price from September at 1.36467. Those breaks should have disappointed the

The EURUSD has moved to a new session low, and in the process, the pair moved to a new low going back to August 13 and through the 61.8% of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0944, and a swing area between 1.09419 to 1.0949. The low reached 1.09388. However, what looms

US mortgage applications -5.1% vs -1.3% priorMorgan Stanley expecting slight deceleration in tomorrow’s CPIECB’s Patsalides says room for rate cut but Middle East implications need assessmentInterest rate expectations for upcoming policy decisionsIsraeli PM Netanyahu held extensive talks with senior officials on response to IranViews on major FX from UBSECB’s Kazaks: Rate cuts are necessary as

As I outlined yesterday, China hasn’t done enough to crank up its real economy and that’s led to some heavy selling in Chinese equities. The question is: Will more fiscal stimulus come? The answer might come Saturday. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference on Saturday at 10 am local

Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. 📆 Every Weekday ⏰ 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST 🔊 LINK 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

The NHC is out with the latest forecast for Milton, some highlights Milton’s structure changing due to strong 30-35 kt southwesterly shearCloud canopy asymmetric, dry air infiltrating western circulationMinimum pressure up to 931 mb, intensity now 125 ktExpected to be major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4) at landfall tonight (forecast now says at the top

Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes later it’s afternoon at 2 PM, Richard Fed Pres. Barkin was scheduled to give the opening remarks at an event in Chicago at 12:15 PM ET. Meanwhile feds Jefferson is due to speak on the discount window at 12:30 PM ET. Nothing has been heard from Fed’s Barkin so

The NASDAQ index is now trading up over 113 points or 0.62% at 18295.69. The high price reached 18299.22. That has taken the price within 2% of it’s all time high closing level at 18647.45. The intraday high close level came in at 18671.07. The next target comes against the high price from September at

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate dropped to 4.75% from 5.25%, The 50bp cut was widely expected. — Statement summary points: New Zealand is now in a position of excess capacity.Low import prices have assisted disinflation.The committee assesses annual consumer price inflation within its 1-3% target.It is appropriate to cut the OCR by 50

Full Note 🌏 APAC stocks traded mixed, initially benefiting from Wall Street’s tech-led rally, while China’s upcoming fiscal policy briefing looms. 💼 Key Developments: China’s Finance Ministry will hold a press briefing on October 12th to outline fiscal policy adjustments.RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bps to 4.75%, while the RBI kept its Repurchase

BofA believes the ECB will cut rates more aggressively than currently priced in by the market, citing four key reasons for this outlook. Key Points: Economic Stimulus Needs: There are reasonable scenarios where the Euro Area economy may require additional stimulus, suggesting that rates may need to fall well below the neutral level to support

Morgan Stanley are forecasting ECB rate cuts of 25bp at the next four meetings: October 17, 2024December 12. 2024January 30. 2025March 6, 2025 MS say this’ll take the ECB rate to 2.5% and close to neutral. Being close to neutral will then slow the next serious of rate cuts from the Bank. MS forecasts 25bp

Fed’s Jeffereson did NOT FAIL to disappoint, when the only headline from his speaking engagment was a remark repeated from Tuesday: Fed decisions will be meeting by meeting. Meanwhile there is nothing from Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There hasn’t been a clear catalyst for the turnaround in risk sentiment in the past two hours but it’s real and widespread. The S&P 500 just touched a record high and Treasury yields are inching up. The FX market is also validating the move with risk trades improving. USD/JPY is up 104 pips to 149.24,

As the North American session is started the USD is the strongest of the major currencies and the NZD is the weakest. Overnight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its cash rate by 50 basis points, reducing it from 5.25% to 4.75% in a widely expected move. The decision reflects the current state

The USDCHF broke higher after the stronger than expected US jobs report on Friday. The break took the price above the high of the “Red Box” that had confined the pair going back to August 20. On Monday and into yesterday, the price rotated back to the downside and in the process reentered that”Red Box”.

Not as convinced as media reports on October cut.We can’t rule out a rate cut at the next meeting.I’m not currently worried about the ECB undershooting 2% target.We’ll only get key data in December.Not convinced that we should decide on the basis of one good inflation figure.It’s important for us to have certainty that we

Hitting social media outlets, seems legit, trying to confirm: Tesla offering a record low loan rate of 0% APR for new Model 3 and Model Y finance orders in the U.S. loan terms up to 72 monthsa minimum down payment of 15%$7,500 Federal tax credit will be applied, if eligible Other terms and conditions of

The S&P 500 just touched a fresh record at 5773. It’s up 22 points today or 0.4% and has broken the Sept 26 high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Q&A now: Fed has not changed its approach to monetary policyFed is always thinking about the balance of risksOur goal has been to bring inflation down without causing undue or a disorderly increase in the unemployment rate Performance of labour market gave us headroom to keep policy restrictive for

As meetings are held and diplomatic solutions are debated with regard to retaliation against the Iran’s missile attack last week, Sky news Arabia is reporting from Lebanese sources that an Israeli warship was spotted at sea off the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon as Isreal continues its assault on Hezbollah militants in that region.

Hurricane forecaster Tomer Burg notes that the path of Hurricane Milton over the past few hours has been tracking consistently south of most models and forecasts. The storm was last a Category 5 hurricane but is expected to weaken somewhat over the next 14-18 hours to a Cat-4 or Cat-3 before landfall. However this track

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold dropped during the American session without any clear catalyst. Real yields rose following the US NFP report and that weighed on the market. After some resistance, the price eventually caught up with higher real yields dropping to a new two-weeks low. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report and that could

Morgan Stanley has bumped its forecast for Brent crude oil in the final quarter of 2024 to $80 / Barrel up from its previous forecast of $75 MS cite heightened geopolitical risk. MS are wary though, saying demand is weaker than expected and supply has been robust. And thus warn of a widening surplus in

Prior was +1.1%Inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expFull report That should lead to some Q3 GDP estimate downgrades. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD: Bias: Weakness anticipated, but with temporary support.Rationale: The USD decline has stalled due to geopolitical risks (e.g., Middle East conflict) and weaker macroeconomic data from Europe. However, strong US rate-cut expectations and inflation readings leaning to the downside should limit gains.Targets: DXY should ultimately fall below 100, with EUR/USD forecasted to reach 1.15, GBP/USD

The major indices are trading mixed in early US trading: A snapshot of the market nine minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average cost 65.73 points or 0.16% at 42146.10S&P index up 1.04 points or 0.02% at 5752.17NASDAQ index -25.79 points or -0.14% at 18157.13 The small-cap Russell 2000 Sam -3.52 points or

The AUDUSD is moving lower after testing a key resistance area between 0.67429 and 0.6760. Sellers leaned against the high of that swing area and pushed prices back to the downside. On the downside, earlier this week the price found support buyers against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at

Implied rate expectations for the upcoming policy decisions for major central banks: ECB: -25 basis points of easing implied for October 17th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut) BoC: -32 basis points of easing implied for October 23rd meeting (100% probability implied for a cut) BoJ: 1 basis point of tightening implied for the

The main event for today was the RBNZ rate decision. The central bank cut rates by 50 bps as expected and there was nothing to suggest that they won’t deliver a similar cut in November. The market sees an 80% probability of a 50 bps cut in November and 166 bps of easing by the

This chart from Deutsche Bank is getting some love out there, showing that US benchmark index “is still experiencing its strongest YTD performance of the 21st century so far, having risen by +19.4% since the start of the year.” Of more interest though is what DB analysts see for the next few months: Looking forward,

Crude oil inventories +5810vs +2048K expGasoline inventories –6304K vs -1123K expDistillates inventories -3124K vs -1865K expRefinery utilization -0.9% versus expectations of -0.1% exp Private oil inventory data from late yesterday: Crude +10900K (huge build)Gasoline -557KDistillates -2590K WTI crude oil was trading down $1.71 to $71.87 ahead of the release. The moves immediately following the release

The picture continues to dim in Germany and the economy ministry is out with lower forecasts, something that was hinted at earlier this week. GDP seen -0.2% in 2024 vs +0.3% priorExpects +1.1% in 2025 vs +1.0% priorSees 1.6% growth in 2026Sees 2024 inflation at 2.2% vs 2.4% priorSees 2.0% inflation in 2025 and 1.9%

Defensive sectors prop up Europe’s STOXX 600 as China uncertainty lingers Full Story on PiQ Suite European stocks gained slightly, with defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and real estate supporting the STOXX 600 amid ongoing concerns about China’s stimulus plans. Mining and luxury sectors linked to China struggled, while Rio Tinto slipped 0.7% following its

ECB’s Patsalides: There seems to be room for a rate cut.ECB’s Patsalides: But we should discuss all new data as usual.ECB’s Patsalides: Middle East implications should be assessed. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Global economy could face losses of $14.5 trillion over 5 years from potential geopolitical conflict, according to Lloyd’s of London Lloyd’s of London warns that a hypothetical geopolitical conflict could cost the global economy $14.5 trillion over a five-year period. The forecast highlights the significant risks posed by escalating geopolitical tensions, with potential widespread economic

ECB remains on track to hit 2% inflation in Q4 2025Services inflation and wage growth present some uncertainty There isn’t much here, the market is 98% priced for an Oct 17 rate cut of 25 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Last night PM Netanyahu met for over five hours with a group of senior ministers and senior IDF and intelligence community officials to try to reach a decision regarding the scope and timing of the Israeli response against Iran. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley expects a slight deceleration in tomorrow’s headline inflation data. Core CPI is projected at 0.26% MM and 3.2% YY Headline CPI is projected at of 0.09% MM and 2.3 YY The main components to watch for tomorrow: Housing inflation is expected to soften, with rents anticipated to decelerate, particularly due to adjustments in

NHC says Milton remains a catastrophic category 5 hurricane, forecast to make landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast late tonight as a dangerous major hurricane.NHC says Hurricane Milton about 300 mi (485 km) southwest of Tampa Florida; maximum sustained winds 160 mph (260 km/h).NHC says a turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on

It’s mid-week and eyes remain on China as it sorts itself out following the holiday ramp. Shanghai shares fell 6.6% but officials teased a weekend announcement: Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference on Saturday at 10 am local time to discuss the country’s plans for intensifying countercyclical adjustments to

British Foreign Secretary Lammy to visit China in bid to reset strained ties Full Story on PiQ Suite Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy is set to visit China next week, aiming to reset relations strained by issues surrounding Hong Kong, rights abuses, and espionage accusations. The new Labour government seeks to adopt a less confrontational

US mortgage applications -5.1% vs -1.3% prior US mortgage market index 277.5vs 292.3 prior US mortgage purchase index 149.2 vs 149.3 prior US MBA 30-year mortgage rate 6.36% vs 6.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format – 1200/8 AM: Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speaks – 1315/9:15 AM: Dallas Fed’s Logan speaks – 1430/10:30 AM: Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee speaks – 1615/12:15 PM Richmon Fed’s Barkin speaks – 1630/12:30 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks – 1800/2 PM: FOMC, September minutes release – 2100/5

Coming up from the ECB today: 0530 GMT/0140 US Eastern time: Bank of France head of ECB policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks to Franceinfo radio 0800 GMT/0400 US Eastern time: ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir will present the Slovak National Bank’s updated economic outlook 0830 GMT /0430 US Eastern time: Participation by ECB board

Rate cuts are necessary as the economy is weak. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is one of the most crucial economic indicators that affect currency exchange rates. CPI measures the average price change consumers pay for goods and services over time and is a critical indicator of inflation. Here’s a detailed look at how CPI data influences currency pairs in the foreign exchange market.

China’s finance ministry to detail fiscal stimulus plans on Saturday Full Story on PiQ Suite China’s finance ministry will hold a news conference on Saturday to provide details on fiscal stimulus measures aimed at reviving the faltering economy. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an will lead the session, where the ministry is expected to outline countercyclical fiscal

India cenbank holds rates at 6.50%, shifts stance to ‘neutral,’ signaling potential rate cuts Full Story on PiQ The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% but shifted its stance to “neutral,” signaling the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. T his marks a shift from the

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. The next key event to watch will be the US CPI report

Geopolitical risk premium in oil market eases slightly, says Goldman Sachs Full Story on PiQ Suite Goldman Sachs reported that the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has slightly decreased this week, following sharp increases in Brent crude implied volatility and call options implied volatility skew last week. Oil prices steadied, with Brent crude

At 2330/1930 Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson participates in “The Discount Window, 1913-2000” conversation hosted by Davidson College You’ll see listed on the calendar consumer confidence for Australia next. This was published yesterday. it improved to a 2.5 year high. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the focus. The Bank is widely expected

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Sep) Actual: -6.5% Previous: -3.5% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

This info comes via eFX. **** Synopsis: BofA anticipates a modest rise in both headline and core CPI for September, indicating firm core inflation without immediate cause for concern. Key Points: CPI Forecasts: BofA predicts a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and a 0.3% m/m rise in core CPI. The anticipated decline in energy

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. The next key event to watch will be the US CPI report

Full Story on PiQ Suite German Imports (Aug) Actual: -3.4% 🔴 Expected: -2.5% Previous: 5.4% German Exports (MoM) Actual: 1.3% 🟢 Expected: -1.0% Previous: 1.7% German Trade Balance Actual: 22.5B 🟢 Expected: 18.9B Previous: 16.8B This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Seven Fed speakers + September minutes on the Federal Reserve agenda Wednesday, October 9Morgan Stanley raised its Brent price forecast to $80 a barrel (from $75) for Q4 2024US inflation data due this week: BofA predicts a +0.1% m/m headline CPI, +0.3% m/m coreEuropean Central Bank speakers Wednesday include Villeroy and KazimirMorgan Stanley sees a

ECB ‘very likely’ to reduce interest rates next week, says Villeroy Full Story on PiQ Suite European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled that the ECB is “very likely” to cut interest rates next week due to weak economic growth. As head of the French central bank, Villeroy’s comments add weight to growing

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey: October manufacturers sentiment +7, September was a 7-month low of +4September non-manufacturers sentiment +20 (falling for the fourth month in a row to its lowest since February 2023) vs +23 in September January manufacturers index seen at +9, non-manufacturers at

Axios citing sources says: Advanced talks are underway to hold a phone call between US present Biden and Israel’s PM Netanyahu. Is it theatre to make it appear diplomatic efforts have been made before the attack? Will it even take place? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

SocGen anticipates a temporary pullback in USD/JPY towards 145, followed by a potential rally towards the significant resistance level near 152. Key Points: Recent Performance: USD/JPY has formed a higher trough at 141.60 and is currently in a short-term rebound, having surpassed its 50-day moving average (DMA) at 145 and recently tested the pivot high

The major US indices are in a saw-tooth pattern over the last 3 days. Looking at the major indices, the changes showed: Dow Industrial Average: Up 341 points. Down -398. Up 126.13.S&P: Up 51 points. Down 55.13 points . Up 55.21 pointsNasdaq. Up 219 points. Down -213.95 points. Up 259.01 points. The percentage changes today

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson: FED rate cut ‘recalibrated’ policy to maintain strength of labor market.Economic growth is ‘solid,’ inflation has ‘eased substantially,’ labor market has ‘noticeably’ cooled.Inflation is much closer to 2% goal, expect to continue to make progress.Balance of risks to FED’s two mandates have been brought roughly into balance.Will watch incoming

This is via the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos. Scanning some research notes I see Bank of America is reporting client conversations saying there has been a shift from the question of 25bp vs. 50bp in November to does the Fed even need to cut at all at that meeting? Yikes. This article was written

Dollar holds steady ahead of Fed minutes, kiwi drops after sharp rate cut Full Story on PiQ Suite The U.S. dollar remained stable ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, while the New Zealand dollar dropped to a near two-month low following a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bloomberg on Bank of Japan former executive director in charge of monetary policy Eiji Maeda, who spoke in an interview Tuesday. In summary: “January has the highest probability … when the bank releases its latest economic projections.” BOJ will be watching three critical developments: the US presidential election, the trend in service prices this autumn

China Growth Set to Slow Further in 2025, World Bank Says World Bank forecasts China’s GDP growth to drop to 4.3% in 2025 from 4.8% in 20242024 estimate revised up 0.3% on stimulus measures, but 2025 projection unchangedWeak consumer spending, property market woes, aging population cited as challengesRecent stimulus focused on supply side, may not

USD/JPY: 144.75 ($1.42b), 147.00 ($960m) EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR790m), 1.0900 (EUR482m), 1.1275 (EU3R95m) USD/CAD: 1.3535 ($420m), 1.3550 ($301m) AUD/USD: 0.6625 (AUD648.5m) NZD/USD: 0.6050 (NZD751m), 0.6250 (NZD666m) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build much larger than expectedMore from Fed’s Collins: Labor markets are in a good place overallRebound. Major indices close higher.Fed’s Collins says Fed predicts 50bp of cuts into year endAdvanced talks are underway to hold a phone call between Biden and Israel’s NetanyahuCrude oil settles at

Trading successfully needs to focus on risks and putting the odds of success in your favor. That can manifest in different ways but one way is recognizing a pattern by traders. When I look at the EURGBP, the pattern on the 4-hour chart is simple. In trading today: The 200-bar MA stalled the rally today

The headlines from her earlier speech are here: Fed’s Collins says Fed predicts 50bp of cuts into year end Q&A now: Fed is focusing on both sides of its mandatelabor markets are in a good place overallsees 2% inflation achieved by late next year or soHigh price levels are a challenge for manyThe optimistic path

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate by half a percent, headlines here: RBNZ cuts cash rate by 50bp, as widely expected From the minutes to the RBNZ meeting: The committee confirmed that future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy.The committee agreed that excess capacity

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), discusses the review the RBA has just published on the Term Funding Facility (TFF) The TFF was one of the unconventional policy tools the RBA used during the COVID-19 pandemic. Headlines via Reuters: The TFF delivered on its goals set at the start of the pandemic.Total cost of the

Bloomberg (gated) carries remarks from Guggenheim Partners Investment Management chief investment officer Anne Walsh, who spoke at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut on Tuesday. In very brief: “We’re in a reflationary world for the first time in a while” when inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers “should probably take that ridiculous collar

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by and at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Headlines summary via Reuters: Further rate cuts likely needed, future action to be data driven.Notes September Fed forecasts predicted 50 bp cuts into year end.Is more confident

Huge build — — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2.0 mn barrelsDistillates -1.9 mn bblsGasoline -1.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Crude oil futures are settling down $73.57. That’s down $3.57 or -4.63%. The high price today reached $78.42. The low price extended to $72.73. Looking at the daily chart, the low price stalled right at its 50 day moving average (at $72.73), and also just above its broken 38.2% retracement at $72.62. There is a

Buckle up. Israel has informed the Pentagon that Israeli Defense Minister Gallant will not be traveling to Washington. Earlier today there was a report that the US was concerned that Israel would attack Iran while Israel defense minister Gallant was visiting in Washington. The US wants to paint a picture of not being involved in

Oil prices are bouncing back on an NBC report citing US officials who say that Israel is considering striking energy facilities in Iran. An earlier report from the Jerusalem Post said they were only looking at military targets. The NBC report says: US officials said they do not believe Israel has made a final decision

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser not adding a lot what the minutes said earlier, no sign of an imminent rate cut from the RBA: when inflation stops being high and sticky the Bank will act AUD/USD is falling on the disappointing NDRC press conference in China. Markets had high hopes of more

Data points to October interest rate cut.Rates will fall and that will support the economy.Inflation is not fully defeated, especially services inflation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

High yield 3.878%WI level at the time of the auction 3.871%Tail: 0.7 bps vs six-month average of 0.0 bpsBid to cover: 2.44X versus six-month average of 3.57XDirects (domestic demand): 23.97% versus six-month average of 18.1%Indirects (international demand): 56.87% versus six-month average of 66.1%Dealer: 19.17% versus six-month average of 15.8% Auction Grade: D The bad: The

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler noted that while the U.S. labor market is cooling, it remains resilient. Full Story on PiQ Suite Speaking at a European Central Bank conference, Kugler highlighted the Fed’s aim to avoid a significant slowdown in employment, welcoming the recent drop in unemployment. Several indicators suggest the job market is normalizing,

Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic is speaking and says: Labor market has slowed down, but is not slow or weak.Monthly job creation above what is needed to account for population growth.Economy is close to the Fed targets and moving closer.Inflation rate is still quite a ways above 2%.A risk that the economy is too strong, and

The US treasury will auction off the $58 billion of 3-year notes at the top of the hour. At the auction last month, the high yield came in at 3.44%. The current 3 year yield is up at 3.871% despite a 50 basis point from the federal reserve after last interest-rate decision. With yields sharply

The NZDUSD has been trending lower over the last 7 days of trading. That has helped to push the price down from a high of 0.6378 to a low of 0.6106 today. That is 272 pips in 7 trading days, which is a pretty good move. Today there is some up and down stall. Why?

After the week long break Chinese equity marekts are opening super-strong. Shanghai Composite is up over 8%. – ADDED – as I post further gains making a liar out of me. Add another1 or more percent to those numbers above. Hong Kong is trading lower. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month $-78.8 billion revised to $-78.9 billiontrade balance $-70.4 billion versus $-70.6 billion estimate.good trade balance -$94.22 pain dollars versus $-102.8 billion last monthservices surplus $24.4 billion versus $24.3 billion last month Details: exports +2% versus July’s +0.5%imports -0.9% versus July +2.1%exports $271.76 billion versus $266.48 billion last monthimports $342.1 billion versus $345.4 billion

Risk sentiment has been fairly sour across major asset classes this morning. • In FX we can see the AUD, CAD and NZD (high beta currencies) are the weakest, while the JPY is the strongest, with the USD a surprising rangebound today. • In equities, the talk of the town is China where the HK50

Chinese equities have seen better Mondays… The CN50 was down close to 14% a bit earlier in the session, after the NDRC presser left markets feeling uninspired. Many were looking for the presser to include a new batch of additional stimulus measures. However markets didn’t get that, and Chinese equities were taken to the woodshed

As the North American session begins the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is in the middle of the table with gains vs the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) and CHF, and losses vs the EUR, GBP and JPY. There was a number of comments from bankers overnight.

US officials fear that Israel will implement its response to Iran when Israel defense minister Gallant is on his visit to Washington. Do not believe that Israel has made a final decision on the details of the response to IranDiscussions with Tel Aviv included US providing intelligence support or even launching airstrikesDespite its intention to

Good news for FTX customers as they will be fully repaid as nearly $16 billion in assets have been recovered. That’s also great news for vulture funds that were buying up bankruptcy claims for around 10-cents on the dollar. That has to sting with around $425m in claims changing hands. Bitcoin was trading at about

Riksbank’s Bunge says more confident that high inflation is behind usChina’s Premier Li vows stronger policy coordination with timely implementationPepsiCo expect higher borrowing costs to impact consumer spendingECB’s Centeno: Inflation in the Euro Area converged towards goalUS September NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 91.2 priorJapan’s Akazawa says wage-price cycle progressing but full shift

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic landscape with notable movements across various sectors. The technology sector showed impressive resilience, led by standout gains in the semiconductor and automotive segments. 📈 Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) surged by 1.60%, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector. Meanwhile, AMD posted a gain of 0.98%, further emphasizing

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech, “Financial Conditions, the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” at a Money Marketeers of New York University Inc. event: Fed’s Musalem: Costs of easing too much outwiegh easing too little Q&A now: The September jobs report was very strong.The labor market is strong; it is healthy.There is no emergency

As the North American session begins, what are the technical levels in play for the three major currency pairs? A written summary: EURUSD: The EURUSD on Friday fell to test a high of a swing area between 1.09419 and 1.09490. In between that level is a 61.8% retracement of the move up from the August

US stock markets are cruising today as tech rips but it was a different story in Europe as optimism about exports to China ebbed. Stoxx 600 -0.5%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -1.4%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB -0.3% The FTSE 100 has been too quiet for too long. This article was written by Adam

USD/CAD is an interesting chart at the moment as it attempts to break clear of the September high. So far, it’s edged just one pip above the Sept high of 1.3647 in the fifth day of gains. The pair had looked like it was breaking down in August as US economic data sagged and then

Kinder Morgan says that it Shutdown pipelines that are part of Central Florida pipeline systemHas shutdown all terminals in Tampa Florida Citgo is also shutting down its Tampa terminals as well. The oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are not impacted by the storm. Crude oil is down sharply today. The price is currently

Hurricane Milton is expected to be a devastating hurricane along the west coast of Florida and land late on Wednesday evening. The latest advisory from the NHC says Milton is forecast to retain major hurricane status and expand in size as it approaches the coast of Florida. In NHC parlance, a ‘major hurricane’ is Category-3

France French Trade Balance (Aug) Actual: -7.4B 🔴 Expected: -5.5B Previous: -6.0B French Imports Actual: 57.0B Previous: 55.5B French Exports Actual: 49.7B Previous: 49.5B Current Account Actual: -0.60B Previous: 0.00B This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Japan making steadily progress toward achieving a cycle of rising wages and prices.Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Japan on cusp of shifting to economy where prices rise accompanied by wage hikes, but not quite there yet.Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Specific monetary policy up to BOJ to decide.Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Confirmed with

The USDCAD is continuing the move to the upside after bottoming last Wednesday near 1.3472. Since then the price has risen for five consecutive days taking the price to a high of 1.3660 in trading today. In the process today, the price has been able to extend above the September high at 1.36467. That is

If our projections that inflation will converge towards 2% target in the second half of 2025 continue to be confirmed, we will continue to gradually ease our restrictive stance.The ECB will have an open mind in the October meeting even as downside risks to growth might already be materialising.Many recent data suggested that downside risks

Germany’s industrial production for August surpassed expectations with a 2.9% increase, showing strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Germany German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) Actual: 2.9% 🟢 Expected: 0.8% Previous: -2.4% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF moved lower off of a spike high after the US jobs report on Friday. The price backed off into the close and move lower in trading yesterday. That move took the price to the high of the “Red Box” (see chart below) that confined the pair going back to August 20. Support buyers

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. If we keep getting strong US data, then USDJPY will likely continue to drift

Brent crude is down $4 today as the squeeze abruptly ends. The US has been leaning on Israel to avoid attacking energy and it looks like it worked. Biden/Harris don’t want a spike in energy prices just before the election. I wouldn’t believe anything that’s leaking in the press but the market clearly does. This

It’s time to start paying closer attention to this indicator as we count down to the October 30 release of advance GDP for Q3. This is a nice bump and comes after some upbeat economic data. “After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,

The AUDUSD fell below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% retracement of the move up from the September low at 0.67813. That ignited more selling that has continued today with the price moving and staying below the 61.8% of the move up from the September low at 0.67436. That is

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s Bloomberg Interview Highlights: Sees deficits as inflationary, and they ‘need to be dealt with’Fed’s 50 bps cut was appropriate; longer rates may tick up slightlyMidsize US bank mergers should be allowedAI is “real” and transformative; JPM added 1,000 AI workersIPO backlog exists but execution uncertainPublic markets high, but IPO activity remains

As a dust settles from the open, the major indices are mixed after 20 minutes of trading. The Dow industrial average and Russell 2000 up small-cap stocks is lower. The S&P and NASDAQ indices are higher. A snapshot of the market shows: Dow industrial average -37.85 points or -0.09% at 41916.39.S&P index up 22.23 points

Nomura with a wary note on US equities. Analysts at the bank said a strong September jobs report last Friday highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, raising hopes for a smooth economic transition and driving stock prices higher. However, Nomura warns that U.S. stocks may face challenges in continuing their upward trend. US equities

BNP like the euro but ahead of the US election assess that its prudent to add USD hedges: risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East, geopolitical risk underpricedahead of US electionsinvestors positioned short USD BNP like the USD, especially against currencies with weaker fundamentals. Room to run higher for the US dollar? This article

Libya’s NOC says daily production reached 1,133,133 BPD of crude oil and condensate in the last 24 hours – Statement.Libya’s NOC says recovery comes just days after the lifting of the force majeure – Statement. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Justin will be back tomorrow. I know that’ll be a relief for many of you options guys – I feel the same. USD/JPY: 150.00 (US$951m), 145.45 (US$750.1m) EUR/USD: 1.1085 (EUR1.11b), 1.1250 (EUR1.03b), 1.1000 (EUR1.01b) AUD/USD: 0.6800 (AUD781m), 0.6740 (AUD554m), 0.6825 (AUD505m) USD/CNY: 7.1600 ($444m), 7.0500 ($400m)as an aside, Chinese re open today, Tuesday, October 8,

PepsiCo says inflation and higher borrowing costs over the last few years continue to impact consumer spending – Prepared Remarks.PepsiCo – Expect 2024 inflationary pressures to moderate vs prior year, but some commodity costs to remain elevated.PepsiCo: “Believe our snack categories remain attractive.”PepsiCo – Continue to see long runway of profitable growth for international business.PepsiCo:

China’s stock market has experienced a meteoric rise, with the Shanghai Composite surging by as much as 36% from the September low at one point today. However the profit-taking started immediately, with the opening print today as the high. The problem with this rally is that it’s been built on a shaky foundation and looks

I will support additional rate cuts if progress on inflation continues as expected.I want a balanced approach to make progress on inflation and avoid an undesireable slowdown in jobs and economic growth.Our approach to any policy decision will continue to be data dependent.If downside risks to employment escalates, cutting rates more quickly may be appropriate.If

The major US stock indices retraced their gains from Friday’s trade. On Friday, Dow rose 341 pointsS&P index rose 51.13 pointsNASDAQ rose 219.37 point. In trading today, Dow industrial average fell -398.51 points or -0.94% at 41954.24S&P index fell -55.13 points or -0.96% at 5695.94.NASDAQ index fell minus 2.3.95 points or -1.18% at 17923.90. The

National Australia Bank business survey September 2024 Business confidence -2 prior -5 Business conditions +7 prior +4 NAB commentary: “Some of last month’s fall in confidence was reversed in September but confidence remains well below average,” “Interestingly, as we think we are passing through the weakest point in economic growth for this cycle, business conditions

Riksbank’s Bunge: We are more confident that the period of high inflation is behind us.Riksbank’s Bunge: At the same time, we are in a mild downturn and it is important that the Swedish economy now recovers. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.68 billion (revised to -$0.29 billion)Exports $64.31 billion vs $65.66 billion prior (revised to $64.94 billion)Imports $65.41 billion vs $64.97 billion prior (revised to $65.22 billion) This data was delayed but has now crossed and points to some modest further downside risks to Q3 Canadian growth. This article was written by Adam Button

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. The next key event to watch will be the US CPI report on Thursday.

Iran’s foreign minister to visit Saudi Arabia and regional nations to address escalating tensions Full Story on PiQ Suite Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other regional countries to discuss stopping what he described as Israel’s “crimes” in Gaza and Lebanon. Gulf Arab states, while neutral in the Iran-Israel conflict, continue

Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment for October 2024, up 6.2% m/m from September, to 89.8. Below 100 is net negative, but its not as bad as it was at least. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: China’s NDRC press conference met with disappointment, several Fed speakers due FULL NOTE APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the negative lead from Wall St; China’s NDRC press conference was met with disappointment.European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.8% after

Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday include Kugler, Bostic, Collins, JeffersonECB board member Isabel Schnabel will be speaking TuesdayRBA’s Hauser says Bank must remain strong in fight against inflationChina NDRC conference continues, AUD slips a little furtherAUD/USD dipping as China’s NDRC press conference gets underwayBank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking on TuesdayChina stockmarkets leaping higher

Iran Warns Israel of Stronger Retaliation if Attacked Amid Rising Tensions Full Story on PiQ Suite Iran has issued a warning to Israel, stating that any attack on its infrastructure will be met with stronger retaliation. Following a missile strike on Israel last week and the threat of further escalation, tensions in the region are

China’s top economic planner expressed confidence in meeting its 2024 economic and social development targets, supported by accelerated fiscal spending and the early release of funds from the 2025 budget. Full Story on PiQ Suite While stimulus measures initially boosted market sentiment, challenges persist due to global trade volatility, rising protectionism, and internal economic pressures,

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Inflation in the Euro Area converged towards goal. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Chief Economist at Westpac NZ, Kelly Eckhold, says there is some commentary about that a 75bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could happen at the Bank’s meeting tomorrow, Wednesday, October 9, 2024. Eckhold sees a 75bp rate cut as not very likely, and not appropriate right now. The WPAC analysis

It’s another empty day in terms of data releases with just the US NFIB Small Business Optimism index on the agenda. The consensus sees an uptick to 91.7 vs. 91.2 prior. This is not a market moving report in general. It will likely be another day of choppy price action in FX as the markets

ECB’s Vasle: Inflation risks are abating but there is still some uncertainty.ECB’s Vasle: An October cut doesn’t necessarily mean another in December. ECB’s Vasle: An interest-rate cut in October is an option. I’d say it’s more than just an option looking at the deceleration in EU CPI as well as the dismal growth numbers we’ve

NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 91.2 prior The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in

China’s State Council held special study session on economic policies on Tuesday – State media.China’s Premier Li: Will strengthen policy coordination – State media.China’s Premier Li: Policy implementation should reflect good timing, strength, and pace – State media This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

These explosions could be what’s weighing on sentiment at the moment. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Open to October rate cut. The comments around an October cut are not market moving anymore as the market has already fully priced in such a move weeks ago. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data – Household spending for August 2024 +2.0% m/m expected +0.5%, prior -1.7% -1.9% y/y expected -2.6%, prior +0.1% A decent improvement m/m and not as bad y/y. A yen positive at the margin. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan analysts suggest that U.S. stocks appear overextended following a recent rally, which may increase the risk of market concentration and the chance of a momentum shift. The bank noted that while the U.S. has generally performed better than other regions during market downturns, the fact that U.S. stocks are trading at high price-to-earnings

1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden takes part in a panel discussion on “The changing market environment and shifting global dynamics” at London’s International Capital Markets Conference — The Bank of England is on a rate cutting cycle, the next meeting is November 7, with expectations of

ECB’s Frank Elderson highlighted growing concerns about weakening economic growth, suggesting that several indicators are pointing to risks becoming a reality. Full Native Story With the European Central Bank remaining open-minded ahead of the October 17th meeting, Elderson emphasized that policy decisions are being made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. This cautious approach reflects the ECB’s

A social media outlet is posting a comment : JEROME POWELL: PENCILS IN POLICY PATH “SLIGHTLY ABOVE” THE MEDIAN I have no information that Powell is speaking. I have not seen any other source reporting such a comment. I suggest it is an error. But, still, ES dropped … bouncing back now: This article was

Wages data Japan for August 2024. Total cash earnings +3.0% y/y expected +3.1%, prior +3.6% Inflation adjusted real wages -0.6% y/y Overtime pay +2.6% y/y Disappointing data on wages on balance and not as yen positive as it could be, at the margin (BOJ wants higher wagers to drive inflation) This article was written by

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech, “Financial Conditions, the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” at a Money Marketeers of New York University Inc. event. More rate cuts likely given economic outlook.Won’t predict timing or size of future Fed easings.Personal rate outlook is above Fed’s median view.Costs of easing too much outweigh easing too little.Supported

Nasdaq Forecast: Key Levels to Watch as Bear Flag Forms The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is currently showing signs of a potential breakdown from its ascending channel, a pattern commonly associated with bearish price movement. As traders and investors closely monitor this development, understanding the technical setup and market drivers is essential. Below, we highlight the

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams suggested that further rate cuts will be appropriate over time, aligning with Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook for gradual reductions. Full Story on PiQ Suite Williams told the FT: “I personally expect that it will be appropriate again to bring interest rates down over time,” “Right now,

Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting minutes Board discussed scenarios for lowering and raising interest rates in the future.Board members felt not enough had changed from previous meetings, and that the current cash rate best balanced risks to inflation and the labor market.Future financial conditions might need to be tighter or looser than at present

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s ‘state planner’. The press conference was much hyped for another big dose of stimulus. So far there has been nothing of note. AUD and other FX is drifting off a bit on the disappointment. Chinese markets are coming back from

Global Times with the info: China’s total cross-regional flow of people during the weeklong National Day holidays from October 1 to 7 is estimated to be about 2.008 billion trips, with an average daily year-on-year growth of 4.1%, preliminary statistics from the Ministry of Transport show on Tuesday. ps. markets in China are opening: China’s

The ECB next meet on October 17. A 25bp rate cut is expected. 0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: Chairing of keynote session by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice 1015 GMT / 0615 US Eastern time: Keynote speech and fireside chat by ECB board

Unconfirmed reports of explosions in Iran, Isfahan. Isfahan is the site of key Iranian nuclear facilities Iranian Media and Channels are continuing to deny any attack /incident in the Isfahan Province This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Times listed are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0700/0300 Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Global Inflation” before hybrid European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 20241645/1245 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon2000/1600 Federal

So far at the press conference its upbeat comments about how great the economy is. NDRC Chairman says China’s economy is largely stableChina’s economy is facing a more complex internal and external environmentsnew policies will improve health of economic actorsFully confident of achieving 2024 economic growth goals This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan economy minister Akazawa: Decrease in real wages for first time in three months is not a good newsGovt will create environment where real wages continue to rise Referring to the data earlier: Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August (expected +3.1%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, the European Central Bank provided a transcript of remarks from Executive Board member Piero Cipollone made in an interview with Austrian public broadcaster ORF conducted back on September 27. Sheesh, took ’em a while! In summary, Cipollone’s comments point to a rate cut at the Bank’s October 17 meeting, a result widely expected in

ICYMI, via a Goldman Sachs note on Friday, the firm raised its targets for the US benchmark S&P 500 index: 6000 by end 2024 (their prior forecast was 5600)6300 within 12 months (prior 6000)add that these targets may be ‘too low’ GS cite: “our economists’ forecast for U.S. GDP growth is above consensus”higher margin growth

From the Federal Reserve: 2200 GMT /1800 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic moderates “Dynamic Business of Professional Sports” conversation before the Atlanta Fed’s Leading Voice Series, in Atlanta, Ga2230 GMT /1830 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and

I posted info on this yesterday. ICYMI: A press conference has been scheduled for Tuesday (when mainland Chinese markets reopen after the week-long holiday) by the state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC). It’ll cover the topic of “systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies, the

The USDCAD has broken above the swing area between 1.3615 and 1.3622 (see earlier video). Earlier today, the price extended above its 200-day moving average at 1.36012, and then based against the moving average before moving higher. The buyers continue to push and are now looking toward the high price from September which came in

Credit Agricole reports that the Australian dollar (AUD) has become the largest long position in G10 FX, while the Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to hold the largest short position, according to their latest FX positioning model. Key Points: AUD Positioning: The AUD has overtaken other currencies to become the largest long position in G10 FX,

Balance of risks have shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher inflationOverall the US economy is resilientNot seeing signs of resurgent inflationReduction in new rents gives us confidence that housing inflation will come down More to come as he participates in a moderated discussion. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Kashkari: The balance of risks has shifted towards higher employmentUS September employment trends 108.48 vs 109.04 priorBank of Italy: Small deviations in gov’t budget could jeopardize deficit plansHurricane Milton rapidly intensifies into Category 5 hurricaneECB’s Holzman: Inflation fight is far from overFTX liquidation plan receives court approvalReports of explosions in central IsraelUS offered Israel

The price of crude oil is trading at $77.22 that’s up $2.83 or 3.81%. The high price reached $77.36. The low price was at $73.65. Crude oil futures settled at $77.14 up $2.76 or 3.71%. Expectations of a retaliatory strike against Iran is leading to the surge. Today was the first anniversary of the terrorist

The major US stock indices are trading to lows for the day. The Dow industrial average is leading with a decline of -1%. The declines are led by Travelers, Amazon, Walt Disney. The low for the tail reached 41891.81. Earlier, the price fell below its 100 hour moving average of 42071.77. The low price from

Aside from the usual geopolitical headaches-especially in the Middle East, which appears to be on the brink of a major war, investors last week kept a close eye on the dockers’ strike at several U.S. ports. The problem arose over a six-year contract that was due to expire on September 30. However, the port owners

The S&P index is trading near lows for the day at their -27.7 points or -0.47% have 5723.90. The low price has reached 5722.27. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is currently testing its 50 hour moving average at 5722.42 (black moving average line in the chart above). A move below that level would

Western Japan Firms Expect China Slowdown to Persist, Says BOJ Official Full Story on PiQ Suite Many companies in western Japan, particularly in electronics, are adjusting their business plans to account for a prolonged slowdown in exports to China, according to Bank of Japan’s Osaka branch. These firms also prefer stable exchange rate movements, given

The moves were mostly minor to start the week but generally to the upside after a poor week last week. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.2%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report has some people rethinking the path of rates but this chart is a reminder that jobs data is undoubtedly slacking. The employment trends data is a composite of already-released data and it’s now slightly below pre-pandemic levels. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US jobs report on Friday showed much stronger than expected job growth. Stocks moved higher. Yields moved higher. The market adjusted for the potential for no rate hike in November. The expectation is now up to 14.5% (with 85% for a cut of 25 basis points). A couple weeks ago the markets were preparing

No surprise here but this kind of talk won’t stop the ECB from continuing in an easing cycle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the September CPI report will show core inflation rising by 0.26%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. While goods inflation is expected to improve due to used cars and airfares, services inflation is projected to decelerate. The report’s implications for headline and core inflation will guide expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

The AUDUSD has fallen below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.67813 and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September low (also at that level). The fall below that level has led to more selling with the pair moving toward a swing area between 0.67487 and 0.67604. Getting

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, the calendar today is a bit dull with the Eurozone retail sales as the only economic release. The focus today will likely be on the Fedspeak following the surprisingly strong NFP report last Friday. Overall, the market is either going to go with the recent US jobs data

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rallied strongly last week following the tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. We also got some key technical breakouts that increased the bullish momentum. Last Friday, we also got a strong US NFP report which cast aside recessionary fears and strengthened the case for a future pick up

Hurricane Milton is now blowing at 135 kt, which is a Categoy-5 storm, according to the US NHC and has flight-level wind peaks at 146 kt. It has intensified faster than expected and a small eye has now developed. “By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause

Via the latest Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG survey growth in starting pay for permanent roles was the lowest since February 2021.monthly index of permanent job placements continued a two-year decline, though the hiring drop was less severe than in August.increase in available candidates for rolesvacancies dropped for the 11th consecutive month at

HSBC expect a 25bp rate cut at the November 6 – 7 meeting, followed by another at the December 17 – 18 meeting, then in January, March, May and June, for a total of six consecutive 25 rate cuts. The calendar for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2025: The forecast comes HSBC Global

The reports are continuing of an ‘imminent’ Israel attack on Iran and no one is willing to fade oil until it’s clear what is being hit. In all likelihood there will be a further spike if/when the strikes start followed by a ‘sell the fact’ trade so long as the damage to export facilities isn’t

Goldman Sachs has exited its long GBP/CHF position with a small profit last week, noting that Sterling has underperformed its usual risk beta. Despite recent tactical setbacks influenced by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey’s comments and geopolitical developments, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on the British pound, supported by structural drivers and a

Some headlines from the Bank of Italy ISTAT revision implies downward mechanical correction of 0.2 pp of GDP from estimate of 1.0%Small deviations from govt’ budget plans could make it difficult to bring deficit below EU’s 3% of GDP limit in 2026Sees slight GDP expansion in Q3 Do European budget rules even matter anymore? They

The NZDUSD has been moving steadily to the downside after peaking at the start of last week near 0.63778. The low price today has reached 0.6116 so far – 262 pips in a relatively short period of time. In doing so the price has started to extend into a cluster of technical levels including the:

FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new analysis exploring how anticipated U.S. interest rate adjustments could influence the cryptocurrency market, with a particular focus on Bitcoin. According to FBS analysts, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies play a significant role in shaping market dynamics, including investor behavior toward digital assets. FBS analysts reference the

The USDCAD is running to the upside in the early North American session to start the week, and in the process is ticking above the 200 day moving average 1.3601. Getting and staying above that moving average will be a shift more in favor of the buyers. For the pair, the price in September based

It’s not everyday that major equity benchmarks move like meme stocks. Chinese equities have been an a rip since the country came out with their new stimulus plans, and there has been numerous articles of big players rushing in and desperately trying to get some China exposure. The HK50 below is up nearly 40% since

Market expects a 25bp rate cut from the ECB next week, driven by weak economic sentiment and inflation falling below 2%.Arguments for a cut include worsening growth and inflation outlooks, with disinflationary trends and some ECB officials showing support for a cut.But the bank says there are valid arguments against a cut and point to

The week is off and running. What technical levels are in play for the 3 major currency pairs for today/for the trading week? In this video, I outline and explain where traders should focus not only today, but also as the week progresses. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved sharply lower last week and culminated with the

Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved in October after months of decline, driven by higher expectations despite ongoing dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. Full Story on PiQ Suite The Sentix index rose more than expected, reflecting optimism about potential economic recovery in the region, with rate cuts from the European Central Bank and

Eurozone retail sales YY 0.8% vs 1.0% expected Eurozone retail sales MM 0.2% vs 0.2% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. If we keep getting strong US data, then USDCHF will likely continue to drift

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 52 bps (94% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 142 bps ECB: 50 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 148 bps BoE: 36 bps (93% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 118 bps

The latest data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen and has now become a Category-3 hurricane. “The radar analysis below shows a very strong, compact inner core that continues to intensify quickly,” the NHC said in its latest forecast discussion. That forecast now shows a

If you are a buyer of the USD – of the USDCHF – this is the place to buy. Why? The old “Red Box” (see chart below) that confined the trading range going back to August 20, peaked at 0.85368. The price is down testing that area and also the 38.2% retracement of the move

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India’s central bank has instructed both state-run and private banks to refrain from taking significant short positions against the rupee as it approaches record-low levels. Full Story on PiQ Suite The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened via informal communications to stabilize the currency, which has been under pressure for several trading sessions. This article

The reports of an ‘imminent’ attack from Israel on Iran have been doing the rounds for days now but they’re coming even faster today. That could be because it’s Monday and everyone is back watching or it could be enough smoke to signal fire. Today is also the one-year anniversary of the Oct 7 music

Sector Overview and Performance The U.S. stock market today is a mix of contrasting fortunes, with the healthcare sector showing solid gains, while consumer cyclical encounters significant setbacks. Notably, Pfizer (PFE) stands out with a remarkable rise of 2.48%, leading the healthcare charge alongside other contributors. However, Amazon (AMZN) struggles in the consumer sector, posting

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the new trading week. Stocks are lower/US yields are higher the day after the better than expected jobs report on Friday. The expectations for a 25 bp cut at the next meeting

Fundamental Overview Gold lost some momentum recently following better than expected US data. Real yields rose and started to put some pressure on gold. This week we have the US CPI report on Thursday, and we might see some hedging into a potentially higher than expected Core measure given the commentary in the latest US

The US and Canadian economies appear to be heading in the opposite directions and that’s lifted USD/CAD to a three-week high. The pair is up 30 pips to 1.3601 today in the fifth day of gains. The latest push saw the pair edge above offers at 1.3600 that restrained the pair in early European trade.

US economic data is nil today but we will get a chance to hear from Fed speakers as the market has pared November rate cut pricing down to just 88% for 25 bps and a 12% chance of no change. First up is the Fed hawk and dissenter Bowman at 1 pm ET. She is

I posted over the weekend on Saudi Aramco raising the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmarkvs. expected 65 cents / bbl. On the other hand, the Saudi the state owned oil producer cut prices to

Coming up from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, October 8, 2024 are September meeting minutes: at 11.30am Sydney time, which is 0030 GMT and 2030 US Eastern time (Tuesday evening)the details of the Bank’s September 2024 monetary policy decision Following at midday Sydney time (0100 GMT / 2100 US Eastern time) is a

United Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Sep)Actual: 0.3% 🟢 Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.3% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Hurricane hunters sees hurricane Milton as a major hurricaneING says an October ECB cut is not guaranteedAll eyes on Chinese equities after last week’s bank holidaysUS 10-year treasury yields back above 4%Risk is trading mostly cautious so far across major asset classesEurozone retail sales YY 0.8% vs 1.0% expectedReserve Bank of India Urges Banks to

Japan Leading Index (Aug) Actual: 106.7 🔴 Expected: 107.2 Previous: 109.3 Leading Index Actual: -2.6% Previous: 0.2% Coincident Indicator (MoM) Actual: -3.7% Previous: 3.1% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 15% after better-than-expected jobs report Full Story on PiQ Suite Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15%, following the latest employment report that showed better-than-expected data. The Wall Street

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ruled out raising the capital gains tax, affirming his government’s commitment to maintain the current 20% flat rate on investment income. Full Story on PiQ Suite This move is aimed at encouraging investment and reducing the tax burden on high-income earners, especially those who gain significantly from stock and

Markets are trading with a negative bias so far this morning, with a lot for markets to think about. Equity futures have taken a push lower this morning with major benchmarks trading lower apart from CN50 and HK50 which is trading higher (all eyes on China markets opening up tomorrow after the bank holiday).On the

The major centres in Australia, Sydney and Melbourne, along with some other areas, moved clocks forward one hour over the weekend to adjust for daylight saving time. If you are trading Australian markets you may need to adjust your trading times. Via the Reserve Bank of Australia website: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

A very light data agenda ahead for Monday, October 7, 2024. A couple of Asia time zone holidays to note: Mainland China remains on holiday today, markets reopen Tuesday, local timeit’s a partial holiday in Australia (Sydney is out) Note also, Australia switched to daylight saving time over the weekend, local clocks in the two

This week is light in terms of economic events, which is typical for the period following the release of the U.S. NFP report. Much of the market activity this week is expected to be influenced by geopolitical events such as the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Australia will release the minutes from its

NHC says NOAA Hurricane Hunters find Milton a major hurricane.NHC says Hurricane Milton about 750 mi (1210 km) west-southwest of Tampa Florida; maximum sustained winds 120 mph (195 km/h). This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

10-year treasury yields are back above 4% in early Monday trading. It’s been a bit of a perfect storm for bonds: Inflation expectations jolting higher alongside oil pricesBetter than expected US data pushing back against recession fears (this shouldn’t have been a fear but anyway)Big repricing in unrealistic expectations for aggressive cuts Even though all

Goldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight, due to optimism over Beijing’s stimulus measures. Bloomberg (gated) with the report. In (very) brief: Chinese equities could rise another 15%-20% if authorities deliver on policy promises.Valuations are below historical averages, earnings could improve, and global investor interest remains low.Recent stimulus measures have bolstered confidence

Japan Finance Minister Kato: Stated that a weak yen has both merits and demerits.Said there is a need to monitor how excessive forex movements will affect corporate activities and households.Emphasized that action must be taken if necessary, while monitoring the impacts of forex movements on economic and household activities.Indicated that specific policy steps would be

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. will monitor FX moves including speculative movement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Business climate in German retail clouds over, Ifo says Full Story on PiQ Suite The business climate in the German retail sector clouded over in September, according to an Ifo survey published on Monday. “Consumers are unsettled about the economic policy environment. That means that no further dynamic growth in private consumer spending can be

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks began on the front foot following last Friday’s gains on Wall Street; eyes remain on geopolitics LINK APAC stocks began the week on the front foot following last Friday’s gains on Wall St owing to the blockbuster jobs report.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open

Last week I posted a glowing assessment of the US economy from Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics: US economy – “There is no denying it: among the best performing economies in 35+ years” In that post I warned: perhaps the FOMC should take the foot off the accelerator, or least lighten its touch

Full Story on PiQ Suite The Bank of Japan said on Monday price hikes were broadening, as many companies saw the need to keep raising wages due to structural labour shortages. In a quarterly report, the BOJ revised up its assessment for two of nine regional areas in Japan. It left the assessment for the

China’s gold reserves sat at 72.8 million fine troy ounces at the end of September, for a fifth straight month Data via the People’s Bank of China released on Monday. In USD terms 191.47bn in September vs. 182.98bn in August FX reserves 3.316tln USD vs. 3.288 tln end-August. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Melbourne Institute Inflation in September 2024 0.1% m/m prior -0.1% 2.6% y/y, almost to the mid point of the Reserve Bank of Australia 2 – 3% target band prior 2.5% Core (trimmed mean) 0.1% m/m prior 0% Official inflation data from Australia will be published on October 30 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This

Trump spoke on Sunday, said he would place up to 200% tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico. The big 3 US auto makers all have plants building cars for the US market in Mexico. Trump had previously promised 100% tariffs on imported cars and trucks. But on Sunday ratcheted this up to 200%: “We’ll put

Japan finance minister Kato says there are pros and cons to the weak yenFederal Reserve speakers Monday include Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic and MusalemGoldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweightEuropean Central Bank speakers on Monday include chief economist Philip LaneChina gold reserves in September unchanged from August, 5th month in a rowAUD traders

Mon: Mainland China market holidayTue: RBA Minutes, EIA STEOWed: RBNZ Announcement, RBI Announcement, Bank of Israel Announcement, German Trade Balance (Aug), FOMC MinutesThu: ECB Minutes, Norwegian CPI (Sep), US CPI (Sep), French BudgetFri: BoC Business Outlook Survey & Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Canadian Jobs Report (Sep), BoK Announcement, UK GDP (Aug), US PPI Final

Full Story on PiQ Suite BP drops oil output target in strategy reset BP has abandoned a target to cut oil and gas output by 2030 as CEO Murray Auchincloss scales back the firm’s energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. BP is currently in talks to

Germany German Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) Actual: -5.8% 🔴 Expected: -1.9% Previous: 2.9% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: Speech by ECB board member Piero Cipollone at Deutsche Bundesbank’s symposium “Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe” 0735 GMT / 0345 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane at ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice 1345

European Central Bank Governing Council policymaker and French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau, in an interview with an Italian newspaper, La Repubblica. ECB will probably cut interest rates on October 17economic growth is weak, bringing the risk that inflation will undershoot its 2% target”In the last two years our main risk was to

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research report on the views on their Reserve Bank of New Zealand “Shadow Board’. The NZIER Shadow Board remains split over the extent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) next move on the Official Cash Rate (OCR) ahead of the upcoming October Monetary Policy Review. Half of

It’s a packed agenda of Fed speakers this week. Getting us started Monday are: 1700/1300 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman participates in conversation before the Independent Bankers Association of Texas Annual Convention1750/1350 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall

We’ve been following along with the political machinations in Japan that, net, are pushing back against BOJ rate hike plans. Reuters posted this piece late last week, ICYMI, and have updated it today. Worth a read for a summary of where the politics of rate hikes in Japan is at: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benchmark index is up more than 2% on the session so far. Its hitting 31 month highs. the tech index is +3% There are expectations of more stimulus announcements tomorrow: Senior Chinese officials briefing Tuesday, steps to implement economic growth policies Mainland Chinese markets reopen after the week long holiday tomorrow,

Senior officials from China’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a press briefing on Tuesday regarding measures to implement policies aimed at boosting economic growth. The news comes via a notice from the State Council Information Office. five officials, including NDRC chair Zheng Shanjie will participate in the press

An early update for USD/JPY, which caught another substantial bid after the blockbuster US jobs report on Froday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs report is strong. USD, yields and stocks rise I had an outlook from Standard Chartered to post, analysts there were looking for 149 … and here we are. had expected

German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported over the weekend on a dour forecast from German’s economy ministry, planning a downgrade to its 2024 economic growth forecast. The new forecast will be for negative 0.2% growth, i.e. a shrinking economy, for 2024 prior forecast was for +0.3%2023 recorded a 0.3% contraction For 2025, the forecast will be:

Via Iran’s state media, citing a spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation. flights from all Iran’s airports will be cancelled until 6 a.m. local time (0230 GMT) on Monday from 9 p.m. on Sundayflights cancelled due to ‘operational restrictions’, no further detail was given Perhaps indicative of further missile launches to come? Whatever it is,

The data is linked from here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs report is strong. USD, yields and stocks rise The jobs report came in super-string, smashing above even the highest estimates: US non-farm payrolls data due imminently – the critical key ranges for estimates to watchWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0970USD/JPY 148.77GBP/USD 1.3114USD/CHF 0.8589USD/CAD 1.3570AUD/USD 0.6789NZD/USD 0.6158 A couple of items

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Eurozone Retail Sales. (China on holiday)Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Meeting Minutes, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: Japan PPI, ECB Meeting Minutes, US CPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.Friday: UK GDP, Canada Labour Market report, US PPI, US University of Michigan Consumer

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Navigating the Next Moves 🛢️📈 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan, an experienced market analyst at ForexLive.com, tracking crude oil for you today as well as what I am looking at. Let’s dive into the insights you need to make informed trading decisions. 🌊 Recent Rally Highlights 🚀 Strong

Mixed news out of Saudi Arabia, info comes via Bloomberg citing a pricing list they’ve seen: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmarkvs. expected 65 cents / bblcut the price of all

China began its week-long National Day holiday on Tuesday October 1. In the week leading up to the holiday beginning Chinese authorities announced an array of economic stimulus measures. SOme of the measures were aimed specifically at the property sector, such as: reductions in down-payment ratiosreductions in mortgage ratesan easing in property buying restrictions China’s

Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos is out with a tweet saying: A very solid September payroll report probably takes a lot of the drama out of the November Fed meeting Likely leaves officials on course for a 25 basis point cut. Looking at the probability of a 25 basis point cut, that is now at

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority is Preparing to expand its operation in southern Lebanon, The Army will send to additional brigades to southern LebanonIsrael is still preparing to strike IranIt did not specify the place and time for that invasion.Will make a decision to respond to Orion independently without any relationship with third partiesIsraeli seeks to

The RBNZ will meet next week and expectations are a 50 basis point cut (they meet on Wednesday in NZ). The fall today and the price below a swing area between 0.6167 and 0.61796. That area will now be close resistance. On the downside the 100 day moving average comes in at 0.6121. The 50%

Geopolitics in the middle east: US military carries out strikes against multiple Houthi targets in Yemen From US Pres. Biden HE would think about alternatives to striking oil fieldsIsraelis have not concluded about what they are going to do about Iran’s strikeUS and Israeli teams are constantly in contactNot going to make a decision immediately,

As we head into the close, the EURUSD is trading near lows for the week. The strong US jobs data today helped to push the pair below a swing area between 1.1001 and 1.1014, and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0995. That area will now be

US stocks moved higher despite yields moving higher as US jobs showed strength and the striking dockworkers reached a tentative agreement averting a prolonged closure of key port’s A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 341.16 points or 0.81% at 42352.75 S&P index rose 51.13 points or 0.90% at 5751.07 NASDAQ

WSJs Timiraos: A solid September payroll takes a lot of November Fed meetingUS major indices close the day higher helped by strong jobsWhite House economic advisor Brainerd expects impact on employment from hurricane HeleneOil prices move lower after present Biden says he woul not support striking an oilfieldREUTERS: US military carries out strikes against multiple

Crude price have moved lower after Pres. Biden said that he would think about other alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields. The high price of oil reached $75.53. It is currently trading at $74.22. That’s still up around $0.50 on the day. Crude oil is now settling the day up $0.67 or 0.91% at $74.38.

As the week comes to a close, the USDJPY is trading near the highs for the day and the week. The move to the upside today off the unexpected US jobs report, was able to take the price above a key swing area ceiling around the 147.33 level and also above the 38.2% retracement of

White House economic advisor anticipates that the hurricane aniline impact will be felt in the employment statistics for that month, and continue to expect that in the US, will continue to see low gas prices. According to AAA: National average for a gallon of gas fell by three cents to $3.19 despite challenges like Hurricane

China firmly opposes EU EV tariffs calls them unfair and WTO rule violationsChina urges EU to delay EV tariffs and avoid trade tensionsECB’s De Guindos says inflation to near 2% by 2025 but too early for victory lapsEU Moves Forward with Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Member VoteObama to campaign for Harris in final month

The USDCAD is higher after the shorter than expected US jobs report, but what are the technicals telling traders. In this video I take a look at the key levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A note from JPM US chief economist Michael Feroli, his take on Federal Reserve independence under a second Trump term. As well as existing features that can help insulate the Fed from political pressure, for example: firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell would be difficult JPM point to financial markets: “Another possible check on an attempted

It looks like Treasuries want to test 4%. Back-tracking a few weeks, the 3.6% level was a recession trade but with the US economy looking stronger now, it’s safer to price the bottom of Fed funds at 3% or 3.50%. Add in some term premium and 4% makes sense. I expect some strong bids if

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower in US trading today on the back of the stronger US jobs report. The move lower took the price below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 11 low at 0.6819 and also the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6823. On the

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count shows: Oil rigs -5 at 479 Natural gas rigs +3 at 102 Total rigs -2 at 585 The price of crude oil is trading up $1.65 at $75.36. That is near session highs This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

I posted this info earlier, during the Asian timezone. But now its getting close to data time! Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time, which is 1230 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result.The number in the column next

The US dollar has moved to the upside after the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The nonfarm payroll was much stronger than expected at 250 4K versus 140 K estimate. That’s a highest level since March when nonfarm payrolls rose by 310K and is the third highest for the year

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

As the North American session, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The rundown of the expectations shows. Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep): Forecast 140k, Previous 142kUnemployment Rate (Sep): Forecast 4.2%, Previous 3.8%Average Earnings MM (Sep): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%Average Earnings YY

I suspected this would be the case. We’ll hear from Goolsbee later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Decent – and level-headed – read from Reuters on possible ways that Israel could strike back at Iran. Full Story on PiQ Suite GO AFTER IRAN’S MILITARY INSTALLATIONS Some analysts believe Israel is most likely to respond by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in Tuesday’s attacks.

EU governments face pivotal vote on Chinese EV tariffs Full Story on PiQ Suite European Union members face a pivotal vote on Friday on whether to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles in the bloc’s highest profile trade case, which risks retaliation from Beijing. The EU’s proposal can be

Given the momentum, I would expect all the Fed watchers to shift to 25 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economic forecasting isn’t easy. At various points over the last two years it looked like the US was slowing down dramatically. At the start of 2023, a looming recession call was the consensus forecast. This year, as some economic indicators deteriorated, those calls returned. It was understandable — high interest rates hurt the economy. In

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: says PM Ishiba has instructed the compilation of a comprehensive economic packagea supplementary budget will be compiled after the lower house election Perhaps even more stimulus in Japan will feed into higher inflation and higher rates. I guess that’s the hope? Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi This article was written

The US looks like it’s heading for a soft landing. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0510% compared to 4.220% previously and adds downside risks to the Fed’s year-end dot at 4.4%. It also reverses some recent upwards momentum. The rates market is now pricing in just a 9% chance of a 50 basis point cut

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.7%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC +0.9%UK FTSE 100 flatSpain Ibex +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +1.3% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.8%Germany DAX -2.2%France CAC -3.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.5%Spain IBEX -2.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.2% The market wasn’t happy about talk of corporate tax increases in France and Italy. This article was written by

Times are listed GMT/US Eastern time: 0615/0215 Keynote speech by ECB board member Claudia Buch at 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organised by Lithuanian Central Bank 0700/0300 Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva and Bank of Portugal governor Mario Centeno to speak at an event 1000/0600 Remarks by ECB Vice President Luis de

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved down to test the low of what has been a 200 or so pip trading range during yesterday’s trading. MOve below 1.0995 (the 50% of the move up from August 1) and the swing area between 1.1001 to 1.1014 opens the door for more do USDJPY: Has a ceiling This article

The US jobs report has sent the USDCHF, finally outside of the up and down trading range that has mostly confined the pair between 0.8399 and 0.85368. The price was trading near 0.85166 ahead of the report, and has now surged up to 0.8607. At the high, the price has tested the 61.8% retracement of

The market is pricing in just a 6% chance of a cut. Pricing in Fed fund futures shows 25.9%. Is it too early for someone to make the ‘hold’ call? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We haven’t heard from NY Fed President John Williams since the FOMC decision but we will today. Unfortunately, he might not touch on the outlook for rates. He’s delivering opening remarks at a conference about “The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs”. That’s the kind of topic that invites bland throw-away lines. We’ll

EU Moves Forward with Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Member Vote Full Story on PiQ Suite The European Commission announced it has secured enough support to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, marking a significant trade decision that could provoke retaliation from Beijing. The tariffs, aimed at countering what

EU countries do not vote clearly for or against tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, leaving European Commission to decide – EU sources. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are higher in early trading as buyers share the stronger US jobs report and hope that inflation remains contained. A snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average up 253.78 points or 0.66% at 42265.37.S&P index of 41.77 points or 0.73% at 5741.71NASDAQ index

The US jobs report came in much stronger than expected and that has sent the US dollar to the upside as the initial reaction. Yields are higher and the stock markets are higher as well. In this video, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective. We know

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rallied strongly on Tuesday following the first news of an imminent missile attack from Iran against Israel. We had also the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release with the new orders index ticking higher in a potentially first sign of an improvement in demand. Yesterday, crude oil extended the gains as we

Construction PMI 42.1 vs 41.4 prior. Key findings: Construction activity falls across all monitored countries and sectors. Employment and purchases scaled back further.Expectations regarding outlook remain severely downbeat. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Eurozone’s construction sector shows no signs of easing. While the

The end of the port strike is another piece of very good newsThe Fed does not want to react too much to one data pointIf we get more jobs reports like this, we will be more confident we are settling at full employmentStrong jobs report is likely to mean strong GDPWe are still a ways

Sweden to abstain in vote on EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles – Trade Minister.Sweden says has received positive signals from Commission about possibility for special deal for Volvo Cars in EV dispute – Trade Minister. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Goolsbee is now speaking on Yahoo Finance External shocks have derailed a soft landing many timesOur goal is to keep inflation, unemployment almost exactly where they are right nowWe will get a bunch more data before the next Fed meeting This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECB’s De Guindos: By end of 2025 ECB expects inflation and core inflation to hover around 2%, but too early to declare victory in fight against inflation.ECB’s De Guindos: Recent inflation data have been good, represented a positive surprise, but growth still reflects risks to the downside.ECB’s De Guindos: In general ECB is in favour

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals that the technology sector is leading the charge with notable gains. Among the top performers is Broadcom (AVGO) with a significant rise of 2.33%, supported by gains in Nvidia (NVDA) up 1.59%, and AMD (AMD) with an increase of 2.56%. This performance underscores a bullish sentiment within semiconductors, buoyed

0900 US Eastern time (1300 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives opening remarks before conference, “The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs” at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Williams speakls just after the payrolls data: Goldman Sachs preview US nonfarm payroll data Friday, October 4: +165K

We express deep concern over the deteriorating situation in the Middle EastWe condemn in the strongest terms Iran’s direct military attack against Israel, which constitutes a serious threat to regional stabilityWe call on all regional players in the Middle East to act responsiblyWe reiterate our call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and unconditional release

Mainland China remains on holiday, markets there reopen on Tuesday October 8. Hong Kong is, of course, open. The Hang Seng index had a retracement fall yesterday. On the data agenda, Australian housing finance is about it. This is unlikely to move AUD too much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

The September employment report is due from the US on Friday 4 October 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT. Adam had a preview posted earlier: September non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Beware the seasonal pattern And, GS: Goldman Sachs preview US nonfarm payroll data Friday, October 4: +165K /jobless rate 4.2% You

Spain Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) Actual: -0.1% 🔴 Expected: 0.1% Previous: -0.4% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Two-month net revision: +72K vs -86K priorUnemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% priorUnrounded unemployment rate: 4.0510% vs 4.220% priorParticipation rate: 62.7% vs 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +223K vs 118K priorPrior private payrolls +118K revised to +114KU6 underemployment rate: 7.7% vs 7.9% priorAverage hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)Average hourly

Inflation is controlled.Inflation today is very close to 2%. These are token remarks. The market has already fully priced in a 25 bps cut in October, so there’s nothing new the ECB members can say. It’s now about the data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Introduction Blockchain technology has transformed various sectors, from finance to healthcare, by introducing decentralized, transparent, and secure systems. First popularized by Bitcoin, blockchain is now the backbone of numerous applications across industries. Blockchain’s decentralized ledger technology (DLT) enables secure and tamper-proof transactions, making it a game-changer in terms of security and data integrity. This article

Bank of England’s Pill: Current wage and services price inflation are a source of continued concern. This links up with earlier comments from Pill here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU releases statement after EU vote on tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU: Urges EU to act prudently, delay implementation of tariffs, avoid escalation of trade frictions.Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU: Expresses strong dissatisfaction with EU for promoting ‘trade protectionism’ measures. This article was written

Chinese Commerce Ministry releases statement after EU vote on tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV tariffs: China firmly opposes EU’s ‘unfair’, ‘non-compliant’, ‘unreasonable’ protectionist practices.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV tariffs: ‘Protectionist practices’ of EU seriously violate rules of WTO.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV

The Morning Blast @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Friday 4th Oct. 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Set Reminder Here 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Justin is off for a few days. I’ll be posting these for another couple of days before regular (and much better 😉 ) service resumes! EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR2.09b), 1.1100 (EUR1.07b) USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$958m), 146.25 (US$879m) USD/CAD: 1.3350 (US$1.68b), 1.3500 (US$993m), 1.3600 (US$657m) AUD/USD: 0.6850 (AUD813m), 0.6700 (AUD418m), 0.6650 (AUD300m) For more information on how to

US official believe Israel’s retaliation will be measured enough to avoid triggering new rounds of escalationOne official said Israel wants to send a strong signal to Iran while hoping to put a lid on the conflictNo final decisions had been made by IsraelWashington did not expect to participate in strikesThere is growing concern among US

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Sep) Actual: 2.5% 🟢 Expected: 2.4% Previous: 2.4% (s.a.) Actual: 2.6% Expected: 2.6% Previous: 2.5% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs raises its year-end Turkey inflation forecast to 44% from 40% after September CPI data.Goldman Sachs says now expects first Turkey rate cut in January, from November previously. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

French Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) Actual: 1.4% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.2% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Construction PMI 41.7 vs 38.9 prior. Key findings: Further sharp, albeit slower, fall in total industry activity. Rate of job shedding quickens. Input costs continue to fall. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The construction sector is starting to show some faint signs

Standard Chartered say that gold is a hedge against geopolitical risk, whereas Bitcoin is is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues. Analysts at the bank like buying BTC/USD on a dip under USD60K This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of England’s Pill: I do not think the level of interest rates is having more than a marginal impact on UK business investment. This follows on from earlier comments from Pill here and here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The leadership of Israel is being pushed and pulled in both directions. As the FT report highlighted, the US might not feel it has control of Netanyahu. For what it’s worth, former Trump advisor and uberhawk John Bolton is out saying he thinks Israel will hit hard: Israel is not going to heed the Biden

Construction PMI 57.2 vs 53.3 expected and 53.6 prior. Key findings: Output growth led by steepest rise in civil engineering activity since June 2021.New orders grow at strongest pace for two-and-a- half years.Cost pressures intensify in September. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK construction companies indicated a decisive improvement

Iran leader Khamenei says Muslim nations have a common enemy.Iran leader Khamenei says Muslim nations have to strap the belt of defense from Afghanistan to Yemen, from Iran to Gaza and Lebanon.Iran leader Khamenei says every country has the right to defend itself from aggressors.Iran leader Khamenei says Oct. 7 attack was a legitimate act,

The UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has warned targets will be missed on 2024 EV sales: called on the new Labour government to introduce incentives for private buyers to speed up the switch to EVs calls to halve the tax on new EV purchase for three years for private customers and reduce

A note from Commerzbank on what is expected from the European Central Bank on October 17. TLDR is a 25bp rate cut. The analysts argue that the primary driver behind the European Central Bank’s (ECB) current stance is the collapse of eurozone inflation expectations. Market participants recognize that this gives the ECB a solid rationale

Fundamental Overview The JPY lost some more ground this week following Japan’s PM Ishiba’s comments on Wednesday as he delivered dovish remarks. As a reminder, the JPY got a boost last week when he was elected because he was viewed as a hawk and supportive for further rate hikes. It turned out that he’s the

Earlier: Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi – PM Ishiba wants a comprehensive economic packageJapan finance minister Kato wants to boost support for low-income households Japan’s economy minister Akazawa now, says aims to overcome deflation under Ishiba’s leadership says he is carefully considering gas subsidies situationno change in interpretation of govmt – BOJ accord taregetting 2%

NHC says Kirk remains a large and powerful major hurricane, large swells from Kirk could reach the U.S. East Coast by Sunday.NHC says Hurricane Kirk about 1655 mi (2665 km) southwest of the Azores; maximum sustained winds 145 mph (230 km/h). This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

U.S., South Korea tentatively reach deal on defense cost sharing plan – Yonhap.United States and Republic of Korea have reached consensus on proposed text of a new five-year Special Measures Agreement. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Markets trade fairly stable on the risk sentiment side so far today. Usually in the run up to big events like today’s NFP it’s not uncommon to see markets trading more choppy or rangebound or muted. Also, there could be a bunch of different types of flows ranging from profit taking, pre-positioning and hedging flows

Dock workers have agreed to suspend strike activity to January 15 There are conflicting reports but it is clear that workers have returned to their jobs. AP reports that the union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports has reached a deal to suspend their strike until January 15 to provide

Home loans data from Australia more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has been consolidating in up and down trading this week. The high price was reached on Tuesday at $2673.14. That was just above the all-time high close was reached last Thursday at $2672.03. The low price this week was reached on Monday at $2624.82. The current prices trading at $2657.96. Looking at the hourly

Obama to campaign for Harris in month leading up to election – Washington Post. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

A TV documentary maker has said he has found Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, which is the fake name used by the creator of Bitcoin. The name will be revealed in a new HBO documentary, set to air Wednesday October 9 at 9 p.m. US Eastern time Politico with the heads up, adding: Intriguingly, as the date

Japan PM Ishiba on the wires Japanese PM Ishiba says beating deflation is the top economic priority and we will seek economic growth as the basis of fiscal healthWill compile economic package as soon as possible to help cushion blow to households from rising costs.Says will seek ties with like-minded nations to supplement US alliance

Full Story on PiQ Suite Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba formally instructed his ministers on Friday to compile a fresh economic package to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs, as the new government makes its top priority an exit from deflation. “We would need to support people suffering from rising costs right

The @Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks Mixed Ahead of US NFP, US Dock Workers End Strike APAC stocks traded mixed amid light pertinent catalysts for the region ahead of the latest US NFP report.US dock workers have agreed a deal to end their current strike action.European equity futures are indicative of a marginally positive

Bank of England’s Pill says ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence.Bank of England’s Pill says need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction.BOE’s Pill says further cuts in bank rate remain in prospect but it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting

The major indices are closing lower on the day with the Dow and the Russell 2000 doing the worst ahead of the US jobs report tomorrow. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -184.73 points or -0.44% at 42011.59S&P index -9.60 points or -0.17% and 5699.94NASDAQ index -6.65 points or -0.04% and 17918.48 The

While the USDCHF pushes the topside of the “Red Box” today that has confined the pair going back to August 20, the EURCHF is mired within its own confined range. Apart for a time period between April 10 and April 11, the price of the EURCHF has been confined to a range between 0.9332 and

The European session today is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. The main event will be the US NFP report in the American session. We will also hear from Fed’s Williams after the US jobs report, so that’s going to be interesting. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US

JPMorgan analysts see gold and Bitcoin as beneficiaries of uncertainty in regular financial markets, citing rising geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming U.S. election. JPMorgan say gold and BTC will benefit from this “debasement trade”. On gold, JPM says the price move has already “gone well beyond the moves implied by dollar and real bond yield

My earlier post is here, while the news was not overly clear – trying to get the info out quick: US dock workers agree to return to work – postpone strike action Adding in some more detail now via various news outlets dock workers and port operators have reached a tentative deal ending a three-day

US non-farm payrolls data – the critical key ranges for estimates to watchJP Morgan favour gold and Bitcoin – the “debasement” tradeHeads up for ECB speakers on Friday – Buch, Escriva, Centeno, de GuindosStandard Chartered says Bitcoin not a safe haven against geopolitical risk – gold isBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak

Earlier: Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi – PM Ishiba wants a comprehensive economic package Japan’s new finance minister is given a heads up outline on some of the measures that’ll be included: focus on price reliefmeasures to boost economic growthassistance for low income households JPY is catching a bit of a bid on this, the

All the previews I have been posting of the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, on October 9, are exp[ecting a 50bp rate cut: RBNZ preview – most likely cut the cash rate by 50bps next week, and again in NovemberANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest

Wall Street Journal with the update, citing “people familiar with the matter”. In brief: U.S. port employers are preparing an almost 62% pay increase to get striking dockworkers back to workoffer is an increase from an earlier proposed raise of 50%offer would raise the base hourly rate for ILA port workers from $39 to $63

Goldman Sachs are estimating that headline nonfarm payrolls rose 165k in September. From the note, in brief: On net, Big Data indicators indicate a pace of job creation above the recent payrolls trend. We assume above-trend (albeit moderating) contributions from the recent surge in immigration and catch-up hiring. We suspect August payroll growth will be

This info comes via eFX. **** Synopsis: CIBC projects the Australian dollar (AUD) to strengthen against the US dollar (USD) and face limited upside against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the fourth quarter. This outlook is influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) shift to a more neutral stance, stronger AUD performance due

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

More on the big reveal is here: Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified – will be revealed in a TV show! Checking out BTC/USD, not a lot changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

0755 GMT / 0355 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speech at the annual conference of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales Topic will be of interest to traders: What’s next for the UK economy? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US September ISM services 54.9 vs 51.7 expectedUS factory orders for August -0.2% versus 0.0% expectedUS September final S&P Global Services PMI 55.2 vs 55.4 prelimCanada S&P Global services PMI falls to six-month low, employment dropsG7 statement: We unequivocally reiterate our commitment to security of IsraelIsraeli media & Sky New Arabia is repeating that an

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $73.71. That is up $3.61 or 5.15%. The high price reached $73.92. The low price today reached $70.56. Looking at the daily chart above, the price is trading at the highest level since September 3, and above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the

The EURUSD has been trending to the downside this wee. Recall from Monday trade, the high price extended above Friday’s high but not Wednesday’s high. It did move above the double top going back to August 23 and August 26 (see red numbered circles and topside yellow area). Since then the price has been stepping

Consensus estimate +140K Estimate range +70K (Citi) to +220K (Jeffries)August was +142K Private consensus +125K versus +118K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% versus 4.2% priorPrior participation rate 62.7%Prior underemployment U6 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.8% versus +3.8% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus 34.3 prior

Some analysis by my dear friend, ForexLive contributor and all-round gent, Arno Venter… GBP post-Bailey’s comments LINK – Bank of England Governor talks “bit more aggressive” interest rate cuts BoE comments from today playing catch up with the overall trend in economic data surprises over the past few weeks? Sizeable reaction in Sterling compared to

Prior week 218K (revised to 219K)I4- week moving average initial jobless 224.5K vs 224.75KContinuing claims 1.826M vs 1.832M expected. Prior continuing claims 1.834M (revised to 1.827M)4-week moving average continuing claims 1.829M versus 1.836M last week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Final Services PMI 52.4 vs. 52.8 expected and 53.7 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.6 vs. 52.9 expected and 53.8 prior. Key findings: Business activity growth eases to three-month low in September. Robust order books underpin positive business expectations for the year ahead. Prices charged inflation slows for third month in a row. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics

This is an odd thing to say because Israel isn’t likely to pre-announce an attack like Iran did. But I think you have to take him at his word because Israel now going and attacking today would make Biden look foolish. Oil is up $1.92 to $72.03 today as the market worries that Israel will

Eyes are on the US jobs market as the Fed tries to keep unemployment from rising above 4.4%. Some highlights of the Challenger report: September job cuts up 53% y/y, but down slightly from AugustLayoffs 69% above pre-COVID average in September, improving from 81% in AugustRegional shifts: West cools, East surges in job cutsTech sector

Dockworkers strike was predicted, retailers have been stockpilingRetailers have about two weeks of extra inventory, there will be an effect afterwardsDockworkers strike could have supply-chain effects, that could mean some increase in pricesWe’ve largely gotten inflation downThe new inflation numbers are at the Fed’s target, the labor market is at full employment25 vs 50 bps

In this video, I take a look at 2 of the commodity pairs from the Asia-Pacific area. Both the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD are trading lower today breaking support targets on the way, but each is also reaching support targets and finding some buyers against the levels. What next for each? NZDUSD: The downside in

The preliminary readings for September are here: Australia preliminary Sept PMI: Manufacturing 46.7 (prior 48.5) Services 50.6 (prior 52.5) Finals are, services 50.5 composite 49.6 In brief from the report: Final September PMI confirms sluggish economic growth, similar to Flash release.Services sector continues expanding, increasing staffing, but at a slower pace than early 2024.Business cost

Final Services PMI 50.6 vs. 50.6 expected and 51.2 prior.Final Composite PMI 47.5 vs. 47.2 expected and 48.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 50.6 (Aug: 51.2). 6-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 47.5 (Aug: 48.4). 7-month low. Growth expectations slump to lowest in a year. Comment:

Reuters is out with its latest secondary sources survey of OPEC oil output and it has production down 290k barrels per day in the month to 26.14 mbpd. Libyan output was down 300k bpd with the remainder of the bloc producing an additional 10k bpd. The survey also found that Iraq was still pumping 90k

Services 53.1 (prior was 53.7) Composite 52.0 (prior 52.9) Preliminary is here: Japan Jibun preliminary Sep PMIs: Manufacturing 49.6 (prior 49.8) Services 53.9 (53.7) The key points from the report: Business activity and new order growth sustained Outstanding business rises for second time in three months Confidence remains strong but eases to 20-month low In

Business activity index 59.9 vs 53.3 priorEmployment 48.1 vs 50.2 prior (lowest since June)New orders 59.4 vs 53.0 prior (highest since Feb 2023)Prices paid 59.4 vs 57.3 prior (highest since Jan)Supplier deliveries 52.1 vs 49.6 priorInventories 58.1 vs 52.9 priorBacklog of orders 48.3 vs 43.7 priorNew export orders 56.7 vs 50.9 priorImports 52.7 vs 50.3

US major indices close marginally higherGoldman Sachs: Be careful with USD shorts, EUR/USD could head to 1.0950Barkin Q&A: ‘Last mile’ of inflation may still take longer than expectedUS crude oil futures settles at $70.10Ray Dalio: China policy makers need to do a lot more than what was announcedOPEC calls out the Wall Street JournalECB’s De

Prior was 55.7 (best in two years)Prelim was 55.4Composite vs 54.4 prelim This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US did not urge Israel to not retaliate like they did no April. but the US did say that they did not condone a strike of Iranian nuclear facilities as a caveat. Meanwhile Isreal is continuing their assault in Beirut, Lebanon and targetting Hezbollah strongholds and leadership. The Pentagon is saying that Israeli preparations

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian – Bailey held out the prospect of the Bank becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good. Full Story He also hit back at claims by the former prime minister Liz Truss that the Bank of England was

The price of crude oil has moved higher today and is breaking above a double top on the hourly chart as well as the 50% midpoint of the move down from the August 13 high. Those levels come in at $72.36 and $72.67 respectively. The break higher took the price up toward the $74 level

MUFG has revised its outlook for the Bank of England (BoE), now expecting back-to-back rate cuts before year-end. This adjustment reflects growing evidence of decelerating economic growth in the UK. Key Points: Recent sentiment indicators, including the GfK consumer confidence index, PMIs, CBI Orders index, and the Lloyds Business Barometer, are showing a downward trend,

Italy to ask companies, including defense companies to contribute to budgetSays will require sacrifice from all Italy is trying to tax its way to prosperity. We’ll wait for details but that’s not a good sign for Italian stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

An ICYMI from Axios: Israeli officials staring down all-out regional war tell Axios Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Tuesday’s massive missile attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites. Here is the link for more. We had the heads up on all this way back earlier

As the US session gets started the EURUSD and USDJPY are consolidating the recent moves (lower for the EURUSD and higher for the USDJPY). The GBPUSD is sharply lower after BOE’s Bailey signalled the central bank may be more aggressive with easing. In the kickstart video, I take a look at each of those currency

If you have been reading or watching my videos, I have been harping on the up-and-down trading range in the USDCHF with 0.83996 as the floor and 0.85368 as the ceiling. Today, the price moved higher after weaker CPI data in Switzerland. The price high reached up to your .85371 just above the upside target