German DAX futures -0.6%UK FTSE futures -0.6% This follows from the solid showing yesterday as well for European indices. US futures are also holding lower, so that’s weighing on the mood a fair bit. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% after Wall Street managed to salvage a more positive close overnight. This article was written […]

Via a note from Commerzbank, in summary: forecasts the euro could climb to $1.15 by the middle of next yearforecast hinges on the European Central Bank reducing interest rates more cautiously than anticipated, especially compared to the Federal Reserve And cautions that regardless, EUR gains may not last: ECB’s long-term policies could be overly accommodative

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.6%France CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.5%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes with US futures also keeping lower so far today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% with Nasdaq futures down 0.5%. Wall Street did well to salvage some gains yesterday but the mood does look increasingly toppish. Then, there’s also

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

Prior +14.2%Market index 296.1 vs 266.8 priorPurchase index 148.2 vs 146.1 priorRefinance index 1,132.9 vs 941.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.13% vs 6.15% prior Mortgage applications continue to see a solid rebound in the past few weeks with yet another jump in the past week. That comes as rates continue to ease further, stirring another surge

The People’s Bank of China and other authorities in China announced multiple stimulus measures on Tuesday, including: People’s Bank of China to cut its benchmark interest ratePBOC to lower the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve (this would free up more yuan for lending)will cut the interest rate payable on existing

Caroline Ellison is Sam Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend. She’s copped the jail time for helping Sam steal $8 billion in customer funds Ellison ran the hedge fund tied to the digital currency trading platform FTXShe pleaded guilty to seven counts of fraud and conspiracy.She testified against Bankman-Fried, which appears to have lightened her sentence. SBF has been

The greenback fell sharply in trading yesterday, not helped by some softer data out of the US. In case you missed it: Richmond Fed Composite index for September -21 vs. -13 estimateUS Conference Board consumer confidence for September 98.7 vs 104.0 estimate These aren’t major releases but little by little, it all starts to point

Via a note from Goldman Sachs on global equities, they see CTA systematic traders as net buyers for the next 2 weeks. GS says CTA traders are net long equities, around the 65th percentile, but nevertheless they will continue to be buyers “in every scenario” GS model. GS says this buying will offset a dearth

I had this on Tuesday but am only posting it now. Yes, it would have been much more helpful for me to post it yesterday. I have no excuse. But … if I did it was that I was snowed under by the news from those scoundrels in China! This is via KiwiBank in New

Australian August CPI 2.7% y/y, lower than expected and under the top end of the Reserve Bank of Australia 2 – 3% target band. Good news. expected 2.8%, prior 3.5% Trimmed mean 3.4% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.8%this above 3% rate for underlying inflation is still a throny issue for the Reserve Bank of Australia,

Cautious approach to easing monetary policy is appropriateLooking for incoming data to provide evidence that risk of persistent inflation is diminishingWage growth has fallen but remains above what our suite of models can explainRisks to activity are to the upside, which could suggest long run neutral rate is higher This just reaffirms their stance from

This via Wall Street Journal journalist and noted Fed watcher Nick Timiraos: If this is a sign of a deteriorating jobs market (its probably not a sign of a strengthening one!) It’ll file further pricing of 50bp rate cuts to come from the Federal Reserve. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin has been the king of cryptocurrencies since its launch in 2009. However, as the crypto world continues to evolve, Bitcoin faces competition from more technologically advanced cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana. And now people are beginning to wonder if it will remain on top. Well, many pointers show that Bitcoin will remain one of

That sees the pair erase losses on the week itself as well, moving back to the opening levels this week. The franc is also pushed lower against the dollar, with USD/CHF itself now up 0.6% as well to 0.8485 on the day. All this comes as market players are eyeing the SNB policy decision tomorrow.

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Governor KuglerBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene speaks on WednesdayChina – top government economic adviser disappears after crticism of Xi JinpingWall Street Journal Fed watcher Timiraos on sign of a weaker jobs marketFed SOMA Manager says markets see 50bp rate cut as good news, not badAustralian dollar

Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate c This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, that’ll have to wait for the quarterly data release. The monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62

The New York Federal Reserve branch’s Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account SOMA). He spoke in a speech on Tuesday, saying that markets are not viewing the FOMC 50bp rate cut as an indication of stress in the economy. Reuters with the info: market intelligence collected by the New York

In the US stock market today, the S&P and Dow closed at new record levels once again. The NASDAQ was the biggest gainer with a gain of 0.56%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average, + 0.20%S&P, +0.25%Nasdaq, +56%Russell 2000 +0.17% Some winners today include Alibaba, +7.91%Tencent, +7.00%Beyond Meat +6.59%Trump Media, +5.27%Taiwan Semiconduction, +4.13%Caterpaillar,

Via a note from JP Morgan on the China stimulus proposals that hit the headlines on Tuesday: The US has been the anchor for global growth, but a China reboot will also benefit the globeIt may create another inflationary pressure, so keep an eye on commodities and bond yields over the coming weeks — JPM

Zhu Hengpeng was deputy director of the Institute of Economics at the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ()CASS). CASS is China’s pre-eminent thinktanks. He lost his job and was detained after he allegedly made some remarks in a private group chat on the WeChat mobile-messaging app that were critical of President Xi’s economic management:

Here’s a snapshot of the month-to-date (MTD) changes among major currencies against the dollar as a benchmark. That and how things have played out after the Fed last week, alongside what other major central banks did during the month. Outside of the yen, the dollar has weakened significantly against the rest of the major currencies

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan services PPI for August 2024 comes in at 2.7% y/y expected 2.6%, prior 2.8% The Bank of Japan (BOJ) closely monitors inflation in the service sector. This is to gauge whether increasing wages are prompting businesses to raise prices, which could signal more widespread consumer-level inflation. Inflation rates are a key factor in deciding

Earlier, a People’s Bank of China rate cut: PBOC 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), rate cut to 2% (2.3% previously) *** The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference

Klaas Knot is President of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) – the central bank of the Netherlands – and thus a European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member. He spoke with Dutch TV programme Nieuwsuur: “I would expect us to continue to gradually reduce interest rates in the coming time, also in the first half of

Via oil price dot com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.4 mn barrelsDistillates -1.1 mn bblsGasoline -0.02 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US

Major indices close higher. S&P and Dow new records once again.The USD continues its move lower.Friday has PCE data in the US, but Thursday is full of FedspeakIs a new banking crisis looming in the United States?More from Macklem: We would like to see growth pick up to above 2%Trump: We will put a 100%

The USD is continuing its run to the downside with the greenback trading at new lows for the day vs ALL the major currencies. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading to a new intraday high of 1.11661. That is just short of the high from yesterday at 1.11665. Move above and the high from Friday at

The inflation data from Australia due today is not the official, complete reading. But, it’s a guide, and its expected to show a fall back into the Reserve Bank of Australia target band of 2 – 3%: Australia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”Australian August Monthly CPI preview

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Friday, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation PCE will be released with expectations of: Core PCE, est 0.2% vs 0.2% last monthPCE headline, Est 0.1% vs 0.2% last monthCore PCE YoY, Est 2.7% vs 2.6% last montPCE headline, Est. 2.3% vs 2.5% last month That will be important as the Fed members and the

BOC Macklem is speaking and says: It is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rateThe timing and pace will be determined by incoming data and our assessment of what those data mean for future inflation More: Bank of Canada is pleased to see inflation at 2%, now needs to stick the landing. Continued

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a sustained bid after the latest Fed’s decision as real yields fell further due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. There hasn’t been a bearish catalyst in the meantime to stop the bullish momentum, but watch out for strong US data this and the next week as

While Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank’s failures may seem like old news, concerns about deeper problems in the banking sector that could harm the overall economy and S&P 500 are still alive. Despite the growth in the sector’s stocks following last week’s Federal Reserve decision, experts warn that one move will not solve all

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This follows up on the gains from yesterday, in part helped by softer PMI readings driving up ECB rate cut odds. As things stand, interest rate futures are showing traders pricing in ~82% odds of a rate cut in October. Looking elsewhere, US futures are more muted despite

Axios: Hezbollah has urged Iran to launch an attack on Isreal.Iran has so far refrained the overtures. Accordng to Axioa, two Israeli officials said Iranian officials told their Hezbollah counterparts that “the timing isn’t right” for launching an attack against Israel because the Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian is currently in New York for the UN

ECB’s Nagel is on the wires saying that: We assume German economy will slowly pick up some momentum again.The main factors behind Germany’s growth has been the energy crisis, weak foreign demand and high inflationThe consequences of high inflation have depressed economic activity.Many consumers have held back on spending. The tight monetary policy is dampening

The major European indices are ending the day with gains. The gains are not on par with the China and Hong Kong gains of 4% but German Dax up 0.75% and France’s CAC up 1.28% is not bad. The closing levels show: German DAX, +0.75%France’s CAC +1.28%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.28%Spain’s Ibex +0.33%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.60%

More from BOC Macklem: We would like to see growth pickup above the 2%If there is further adjustment in the labor market it would probably be more unemployment The USDCAD has not gotten any boost from comments from BOC Macklem. The price in fact is trading to new lows (higher CAD) and is pips away

Earlier today, I discussed the latest market moves and economic trends with Dale Pintert at Forex Analytix. We dive into today’s China’s stimulus, its impact on commodities, and what it means for global marketsI share my thoughts on the “soft landing” narrative and why it’s currently driving marketsWe explore geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions

FOMC board member Michelle Bowman is speaking and says: Dissent to half-point cut warranted by inflation still above target, “measured pace of cuts more appropriate” Core inflation remains uncomfortably above 2% target with upside risks given ongoing growth in spending, wages Recalibrating policy appropriate given progress on inflation, but should not declare victory yet Upside

Geopolitics from the Sky News: Israel Army is reporting the killing of Ibrahim al-Qubaisi, Hezbollah rocket and missile commander.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is moving lower after the weaker than expected economic data. Richmond had composite index came in at -21 verses -19 last month. The consumer confidence came in at 98.7 versus 105.6 last month and 104.0 estimate. With the election forthcoming, it might not be that surprising that there is weakness in survey’s from

That’s a pretty big comment from Trump. It would go directly against the new NAFTA deal — or USMCA — that he negotiated. In that deal, 75% of the value of a vehicle must come from North America, a certain percentage of employees need to earn at least $16/hour and 70% of the steel and

High yield: 3.52%WI level at the time of the auction: 3.520%Tail: 0.0% vs 6 month average of -0.3 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.59X vs 6 month average at 2.66XDirects (domestic demand): 19.6% vs 6 month average of 19.9%Indirects (international demand): 67.8% vs 6 month average of 66.8%Dealers 12.8% vs 6 month average of 13.2% Auction

For what it is worth (which when talking about 2050, I find it worth little): OPEC extends oil demand outlook to 2050 and says there is no peak demand on the horizon. OPEC raises oil demand forecasts for medium term to 2028 and long term to 2045 – 2024 World Oil Outlook. OPEC puts total

The AUDUSD is moving higher today. The RBA kept rates unchanged: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was the latest central bank to announce its policy objective when it left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in September 2024, as expected. The central bank noted that current policy remains restrictive and is working as anticipated,

Here’s a recap on the month of major central bank policy decisions so far: Bank of Canada interest rate decision: Rates lowered by 25 basis pointsECB cuts deposit rate by 25 bps in September monetary policy decision, as expectedFederal Reserve September interest rate decision: 50 basis point cutBOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as

Prior month 103.3Consumer confidence xxx.x vs 104.0 estimatePresent Situation Index vs. 134.4 last monthExpectations Index vs 82.5 last month. In August, the expectations index was above 80 for the second consecutive month. Costco shares are trading down -1.23% had $905.39 on a downgrade ahead of earnings on Thursday after the close. Truist downgraded the company

An October cut isn’t totally excluded.Too early to have strong view on October meeting.It will be easier to decide on cut in December.Services inflation needs to slow further. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD is also moving lower and following the USD bias. The price is trading at the lowest level since September 6 when the price bottomed at 1.3465. That level was just above the August 30 low price reached at 1.34643 (double bottom). The low price today has reached 1.3474 so far. Buyers looking to

The NASDAQ index is now trading up 107 points or 0.60% at 18082. The rise takes the price within 3.25% of it’s all time high reached at 18671.07. Both the Dow and the S&P are higher as well and on pace for another record high close. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD is following the US dollar lower and in the process has moved up to test the 2024 high price which was reached on the first day of the trading year (January 2, 2024). That high price was at 0.63248. The high price today has reached 0.6325 – a fraction of a PIP above

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Must watch market developments with strong sense of urgencyIt would be desirable for exchange rate to move stably reflecting fundamentals He’s more or less been saying the same thing since Friday last week from his press conference. So, nothing new here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

That is tight. An average of polls published by fivethirtyeight.com shows Harris at 48.3% vs Trump 45.6% FYI: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It is important to understand what is driving market from a technical perspective. Technical levels give traders bias defining levels, risk defining levels and targets. Kickstart video I take a look at three of the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective and explain why the levels are

The NZDUSD is moving higher today after the dip lower in the Asian/early European session found willing buyers near the 100 hour MA. Buyers have been leaning near that MA over the last 6 or so trading days. There have been some small break (on Friday and also on Thursday), but not for long. Today’s

Did not explicitly consider a rate hike at this meetingFormat of discussion has changedBut recent data has not materially affected policy outlookProgress on underlying inflation likely remained slow in Q3Monthly inflation data is quite volatile (when asked about the data tomorrow)Headline CPI could come in within 2% to 3% target bandBut that is not really

As the North American session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the day with US stocks marginally higher and yields continuing their run to the upside despite the Fed rate cut of 50 basis points last week to recalibrate rates given the inflation

If anything is likely to prompt further stimulus in China this is probably it. Youth unemployment in China can have unwanted political repercussions for the Chinese Communist Party. China’s youth unemployment rate in August, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data released Friday: ages 16 to 24, and not in school,18.8%from 17.1% in July

Earthquake with a preliminary magnitude 5.9 hit near Torishima Islands tsunami warning issued for Izu islands Torishima Islands are remote volcanic islands This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It is hard for the Fed to measure impact of immigration on the labor market This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 4.35%Latest data does not change previous assessment that policy is restrictive and working as anticipatedThe outlook remains highly uncertainInflation is still some way above the midpoint of the 2% to 3% target rangeReturning inflation to target is the priorityUnderlying inflation remains too highPolicy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until confidence returns that inflation

Prior month -19Services index -1 vs -11 last monthManufacturing shipments -18 vs -15 last month. Other details: Employment -22 versus -15 last monthWages 15 versus +14 last monthPrices paid 3.36 versus 2.45 last monthPrices received 1.57 versus 1.87 last monthNew orders -23 versus -26 last monthBacklog of orders -16 versus -27 last monthCapacity utilization -20

The USDCHF on Friday and again yesterday stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid-August high at 0.85172. The inability to get above that level gave the sellers a go-ahead to push lower. That downside momentum continued through support near 0.8475 where a cluster of moving averages were near converged. Today

For all the talk about not commenting on the exchange rate, he is definitely touching on a bit of a sensitive topic here. I wouldn’t mind him saying that speculative positioning being what led to the surging run higher in USD/JPY until July. But to say that the unwinding has run its course? Hmm. Is

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng says will cut RRR by 50bp will cut mortgage rates also This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.5% revised from 0.4%Home prices MoM 0.3% versus 0.4% expectedHome prices YoY 5.9% versus 5.9% expected (prior month 6.5%). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 103.3 revised to 105.6Consumer confidence 98.7 vs 104.0 estimatePresent Situation Index 124.3 vs. 134.4 last monthExpectations Index 81.7 vs 82.5 last month. In August, the expectations index was above 80 for the second consecutive month. This month’s expectations at 81.7 makes it three months in a row about the 80 level. Generally speaking

The price of crude oil has extended to a gain of two dollars at $72.36. That’s up 2.77% on the day. The low price was at $70.47. J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jaime DImon overnight reiterated his concerns about the growing risks of global instability, emphasizing that geopolitics remains the most significant threat to the world

Sector Overview The US stock market exhibits diverse performance today, with notable stability in technology and gains in consumer electronics and cyclicals. The semiconductor segment, spearheaded by Nvidia (NVDA), shows a positive trend, climbing 0.83%. Meanwhile, the consumer electronics giant, Apple (AAPL), rejoices in a healthy boost of 1.18%, making it one of the day’s

The European session is pretty empty on the data front with just the German IFO as the main highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn’t be a big deal. In the American session, the focus will be on the US Consumer Confidence report as

The US stocks are higher in early US trading, but gains are relatively modest: Dow industrial average +76 points or 0.17% 42196.68S&P up 4.85 points or 0.09% at 5723NASDAQ index up 33 points or 0.19% at 18008 The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 7.72 points or 0.35% at 2227.96. This article was written by Greg

I’m very encouraged that the path of inflation is downwardsHence, I do think the path for interest rates will be downwards as well, but graduallyMy best guess is interest rates will settle at a “neutral rate” Bailey adds to the mix of central bank heads with some commentary already so far today. The headline is

But without a pre-set schedule and taking into account various uncertaintiesAppropriate to raise rates if trend inflation heightens in line with forecastMarket developments are still unstableWatching US and overseas economic outlook with strong sense of urgencyCan afford to spend some time in scrutinising market moves and recent developmentsConsumption activity likely to increase moderately as household

Despite all the ups and downs this year, the pair had been mostly trading within a band of roughly 300-400 pips in 2024. But with the latest upside move since two weeks ago, buyers might be eyeing a stronger breakout here. That especially with the dollar keeping more sluggish amid the diverging stance between the

Prior 86.6Current conditions 84.4 vs 86.0 expectedPrior 86.5Expectations 86.3 vs 86.4 expectedPrior 86.8 Slight delay in the release by the source. The German business climate declined further in September, with the current conditions reading also highlighting continued pressures on the economy presently. The outlook reading is also dropping further, down to its lowest since February

Eurostoxx +1.0%Germany DAX +0.8%France CAC 40 +1.3%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This comes with US futures also nudging a little higher in the past hour, now seen up 0.2%. The positive mood in Europe comes after the better start to the week yesterday, as investors react to heightened odds of an ECB

ECB’s Muller: An October cut isn’t totally excludedThe central bank bonanza wraps up with the SNB later this weekGermany September Ifo business climate index 85.4 vs 86.0 expectedBOJ governor Ueda says unwinding of speculative yen positions has likely run its courseEuropean equities open higher as the positive mood keeps upWhat are the main events for

We are not thinking of what size we might eventually cut rates byWill only discuss how big those moves will be when the time comesIf our rates are steady while others cut, it supports the Australian dollarNot discussed possibility of government overruling RBA on policy decisionsEven if headline inflation returns to 2% figure, it does

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey for the week +0.8pts to 84.9 highest since January 2023 ANZ say the jump might be due to last week’s better than expected jobs data. As I noted at the time: The headline jobless rate has not disappointed. And the headline employment addition appears very strong indeed, once again.

Fundamental Overview Last week, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of a risk management move with the dot plot showing two more

The Reserve Bank of Australia (due at 0030 US Eastern time) is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged today: I posted last week on expectations for slowing inflation: Australia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”Australian August Monthly CPI preview – Westpac expect 2.7% y/y for the monthly

Fundamental Overview Tonight, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates. This was the catalyst for the copper rally. Things are looking better and better for the market as we’ve also got a 50 bps cut from the Fed last week. Central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing

Imagine if the RBA did actually look like that. Sadly, the iconic signage area has even been converted to a bus stop and covered in scaffolding. Le sigh. Anyway, the Australian central bank is going to be announcing its latest policy decision later. But barring any major surprises, it should be a non-event. Inflation continues

Both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices are up 2.4% on the day while the Hang Seng is up by 3.3% ahead of the lunch break later. That comes as the PBOC unveiled more easing measures earlier, after not doing so at the end of last week. However, the key caveat here is that

Japan preliminary PMIs, manufacturing slipping deeper into contraction, services improving a little. Manufacturing PMI 49.6 prior 49.8 Services 53.9 prior 53.7 Composite 52.5 prior 52.9 Snippet from the report commentary, price pressures will be welcomed by the Bank of Japan: expansion in business activity remained services-led in September, where the rate of increase strengthened to

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng: must coordinate monetary and fiscal policiesmust support steady recovery of prices in the economyby year end we might cut RRR rate furtherafter RRR cut financial weighted ratio for large banks will be reduced to 8%MLF will be lowered by 0.3%LPR will be lowered by 0.2 to 0.25% Earlier:

Al Jazeera is reporting that: Iran Pres. says US policy support and encourage Israel its open war Iran reaffirms that an open regional war will not be in the interest of anyone in the region and in the world Iran has sufficient capacity to strike IsraelReady to work to reduce tensions in the region, but

Fundamental Overview Tonight, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates. This was the catalyst for the copper rally. Things are starting to look better for the market as we’ve also got a 50 bps cut from the Fed last week. Central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing

Morgan Stanley has recommended that investors rethink their preference for Chinese stocks listed on the mainland in favor of those traded internationally. According to a Bloomberg (gate) report, this change in outlook is driven by shifts in the key factors that have traditionally made onshore Chinese shares attractive. Morgan Stanley says “The two biggest supporting

There is a press conference underway re support for the economy: PBOC and other senior economic officials press briefing underway PBOC Gov has announced the Bank will cut RRR and mortgage rates: People’s Bank of China will soon cut reserve requirement ratio by 50bp Also announcing now that the 7-day RR will be cut to

The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.0%. Reuters poll shows: 30 of 32 economists expect a 25 bp cut1 expect a 50 bp cut1 expects no changefurther ahead, 18 of 32 expect a hold in December Factors cited include: SNB

There have been stimulus announcements made: PBOC and other senior economic officials press briefing underwayPeople’s Bank of China will soon cut reserve requirement ratio by 50bpPeople’s Bank of China will soon cut 7-day reverse repo to 1.5% from 1.7% Multiple rate cuts said to be on the way, which is good news. The attendees at

The USDJPY has had its share of ups and downs in trading today. In the NY session the high reached up toward resistance at 144.58.That level represents the 50% of the pair trading range from the January 2023 low (see the chart above). The high price in the Asian session reached 144.45 which also was

People’s Bank of China Governor says yuan has a relatively solid and stable foundationICYMI – PBoC says it will cut rates, but gave no indication of a timeline for whenPeople’s Bank of China Governor says must support steady recovery of prices, economyPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0510 (vs. estimate at 7.0495)People’s Bank of

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng was remarking on the yuan re the Fed rate cut. Fed rate cut eased external pressure on the yuan exchange rate yuan has a relatively solid, stable foundation It was only a few weeks ago that the PBOC was terrified of excessive weakening of the yuan. The Bank managed the currency

The USDCHF has extended to the downside after holding the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August high at 0.85172. As outlined in the video from earlier today, if the price could get below the cluster of MAs defined by the 100/200 hour MAs and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart between

Financial Times (gated) in brief on what PM Staremr will be saying in his speech Tuesday: tough decisions are needed for UK national renewalthere are no easy answerswill warn of more pain to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

S&P and Dow industrial average close at record levelsCrude oil futures is settling $70.37More Geopolitics: Iran Pres says US policies support & encourage IsraelGeopolitics: Israeli military is now targeting BeirutEuropean equities end mixed, US shares edge higherMore from Goolsbee: Until the rate, falling inflation has meant Fed has been tighteningFed’s Goolsbee: ‘Many more cuts’ likely

Australian Treasurer Chalmers will hold a press conference after the RBA statement later today. Chalmers at 3pm Sydney time 0100 US Eastern time0500 GMT Chalmers has previously criticised the central bank as having smashed the economy with high interest rates. I suspect he’ll be deflecting more blame today. — On the Reserve Bank of Australia:

Top Chinese financial officials PBOC governor Pan GongshengNFRA director Li YunzeCSRC president Wu Qing Press conference underway. Related to financial support for economic development. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan remark on US stock market strength, with the view that stocks will continue to find support from the macroeconomic environment. While there may be short-term volatility their expectations is for stocks to move higher still. JPM cite: US consumer is in a strong positionsome individuals are feeling the effects of accumulated inflation, but

The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is coming at 0030 US Eastern time, 0430 GMT. Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later. Expectations are unanimous for an on hold decision. ANZ, in its preview, say they expect the RBA Board to consider hiking the cash rate today, but to settle with an

I posted earlier on what the PBoC says they are going to do: People’s Bank of China will soon cut reserve requirement ratio by 50bpPeople’s Bank of China will soon cut 7-day reverse repo to 1.5% from 1.7% In brief: will cut reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50bpwill cut 7-day reverse repurchase rate from

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest decision today at 2.30 pm Sydney time 0430 GMT0030 US Eastern time Expectations are unanimous for ‘on hold’: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today – preview – on hold expectedRBA meeting – preview – to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35% When will the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have issued a list of upcoming speeches by senior official.s A note for the diary! Monday, 14 October at 9.15amGovernor Adrian Orr will speak about improving Māori access to capital Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 11amDeputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will speak about financial stability Wednesday, 16 October 2024 at

The price of gold hit its highest ever on Monday, and UBS is looking for higher to come. Anal 1. The Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut has boosted enthusiasm for gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. This is expected to be the start of a larger easing cycle, with

US stocks are closing with modest gains. Even with the small gains, the S&P and Dow industrial average are closing at record levels. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 61.29 points or 0.15% at 42124.65S&P index rose 16.02 points or 0.28% and 5718.57NASDAQ index rose 25.95 points or 0.14% and

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude oil futures are settling down -$0.63 or -0.89% at $70.37. The low price for the day reached $69.52 while the high price was at $71.78. At session lows, the price is at its rising 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). The price rebound moved up to test its

The USDCAD last week had some buying against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart last week (currently at 1.35548) and also some failed breaks that quickly failed. In trading today, that MA did hold support in the last Asian Pacific/early European market and rallied. However, on the topside, the 100/200 hour MA held

Prior 52.9Manufacturing PMI 44.8 vs 45.6 expectedPrior 45.8Composite PMI 48.9 vs 50.5 expectedPrior 51.0 The euro is meeting fresh lows for the day as this just confirms that Eurozone business activity contracted towards the end of Q3. The one-off boost in France in August has much to do with it but overall, manufacturing conditions also

Earlier today in the kickstart video, I spoke about the GBPUSD price action and the next target. As a review, I said the following: At the time, the price was trading at 1.3324. So what happened? The price did move above the 1.3338 and the price did move to the swing area high going back

The AUDUSD has been trying to extend to the upside over the last few trading days but has seen resistance even thoughnew highs have been made. Today is another try. The price has extended above the high price from last weekend at 0.6838. Also, it has moved above the August high price at 0.6823. Both

We won’t declare mission accomplished on inflation.The labour market is strong, want to keep it that way.Fed policy is still in a net tight position.An uptick in unemployment is a bigger risk than inflation.There is lots of ambiguity around what the neutral rate level is.I expect smaller steps going forward for the Fed.A 50 bps

Services PMI 52.8 vs 53.5 expected and 53.7 prior.Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 52.5 expected and 52.5 prior.Composite PMI 52.9 vs 53.5 expected and 53.8 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 52.9 (Aug: 53.8). 2-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 52.8 (Aug: 53.7). 2-month low. Flash UK Manufacturing

Major European indices closed mostly higher to start the week, but the gains were modest. The gains and mostly indices come despite weaker S&P/Global PMI flash data. A snapshot of the closing levels show: German Dax, +0.58%France’s CAC, +0.06%UK FTSE 100, +0.36%Spain’s Ibex, +0.38%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.24% As European traders look to exit US shares

Geopolitics: Israeli military says it is now targeting BeirutHezbollah also stated it’s top commander Ahmed Wahbi was killed during Israelis strike on Beirut suburbsIsreal attack targeted Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki Iran warned Israel of “dangerous consequences” following the strikes on what Israel said were Hezbollah targets that killed more than 270 people in Lebanon on

Earlier today, the European surveys from S&P Global missed the mark, briefly weighing on the euro and pound. Those have since rebounded as the risk mood improves. Up next is the US version. The services PMI has been flying high lately and rise to a two-year high. This month, the consensus is for a slight

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance, but it could put a bit of a floor to price action during the session ahead at least. That with the 100-hour moving average

UBS says that history shows stocks have performed well in periods when the Fed is cutting rates while the US economy is still growing. UBS says last week’s FOMC 50bp rate cut bolstered market sentiment in two main ways: 1. Powell expressed a desire to “recalibrate” monetary policy while the US economy remains strong, adding

Comfortable with 50 bps, shows fed is focused on risks around employment, not just inflationInflation is way down from peak, labor market is at full employmentKeeping rates at decade-high does not make sense when you want things to stay where they areTo reach a soft landing you can’t be behind the curveRates must come down

I posted a heads up on this earlier but ICYMI. Japan’s absence from Asian markets means no physical trading of US Treaasuries and a reduction in forex liquidity. Other FX trading centres; New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore, remain open. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It reflects progress on inflation, softening of labour marketSees year-end rate at 4.4% and end of 2025 rate at 3.4%; same as median of Fed policymakersBalance of risks have shifted towards risk of further labour market softeningToo soon to declare victory on inflation but disinflation process is on trackPolicy remains tight, though uncertain on how

Fundamental Overview Last week, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of a risk management move with the dot plot showing two more

Sector Overview The US stock market heatmap today highlights mixed performances across various sectors. The technology sector is showing neutral to positive movements with Nvidia (NVDA) gaining 0.30% and Meta (META) rising by 1.33%, indicating some confidence in these tech giants. In contrast, Microsoft (MSFT) saw a slight dip of 0.17%. In the consumer cyclical

1200 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time UK finance minister Rachel Reeves will give a speech to the Labour Party conference Preview of her speech is here: UK Chancellor Reeves says wants to strengthen and deepen trade ties with the US This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD moved higher to test the 100 hour MA, but did find willing sellers. The flash PMI was weaker but the inflation data was higher with S&P Global saying, the “prices charged for goods and services are both rising at the fastest rate support six months”. The US yields have moved higher with the

Consumer sentiment is not a good indicator for spending behaviorUntil the recent rate cut, falling inflation has meant that has been tightening policy.We are shifting back to a normal dual mandate mode.We are 100s of basis points above the neutral rate.If conditions continue like this, there are a lot of cuts to come over the

Prior was 55.7 (best in two years)Manufacturing 47.0 vs 48.5 expectedPrior manufacturing 47.9Composite 54.4 vs 54.6 prioraverage prices charged for goods and services rising at the fastest rate since MarchRates of selling price inflation moved up to six-month highs in both manufacturing and services, in both cases running above pre-pandemic long-run averages to point to

I supported a 50 bps cut as a compromise between remaining uncertainty around inflation and risks to the labour market.The economy is returning to normal faster than expected so policy should as well.Recent data show convincingly that the US economy is on a sustainable path to price stability.A half-point cut at this meeting does not

Prior was +0.2%Prices were unchanged in 13 of the 27 census metropolitan areas Prices increased in 8 Prices declined in the remaining 6The index was unchanged on a year-over-year basis in August following a 0.1% increase in July The Canadian housing market is wilting at the moment and it’s a race to see whether the

Manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expected and 42.4 prior.Services PMI 50.6 vs 51.0 expected and 51.2 prior.Composite PMI 47.2 vs 48.2 expected and 48.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 47.2 (Aug: 48.4). 7-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 50.6 (Aug: 51.2). 6-month low. HCOB

The USDCHF has been consolidating since August 20 or so with most of the price action between 0.8400 and 0.8537. That’s not alot of trading range over that time period. Buyers and sellers are battling it out. In the shorter-term, the price action on Friday and again today stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the

This is just a bit of a heads up as the economic calendar on Thursday will be highlighted by a speech from Fed chair Powell. He will be delivering the opening remarks at the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference. However, his remarks will be ones that are pre-recorded. And based on the agenda, is

Weaker flash PMI data sent the EURUSD and GBPUSD sharply lower in the European session, but while the GBPUSD retraced all this declines, the EURUSD remains lower. Technically,, the EURUSD fell below its 100 hour moving average of 1.11382. Recall on Thursday and Friday of last week, the price based against that moving average and

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, barely changed from late Friday at this stage EUR/USD 1.1161USD/JPY 143.85GBP/USD 1.3318USD/CHF 0.8501USD/CAD 1.3566AUD/USD 0.6806NZD/USD 0.6235 This article was written

Recent dots show a fair amount of dispersion in opinion at the Fed.The range of views about the path forward and debate over neutral is robust.The Fed is not in mad dash to neutral, in favour of not rushing to judgement or assuming the job is done on inflation.As long as consumer spending continues, there

The major indices are trading mixed to start taking new trading day and the new trading week: Dow industrial average -2.89 points or -0.01% at 42060.47S&P index up 5.69 points or 0.10% at 5708.24NASDAQ index up 23.13 points or 0.13% at 17971.45. The small-cap Russell 2000 trading up 5.69 points or 0.26% at 2233.59 Microsoft

Deutsche Bank expects the euro to fall back to 1.08 by year end. They mainly take issue with the dollar side of the trade, noting that most G10 central banks are priced to converge to a terminal rate of around 2-3%. By virtue of the Fed having the most to cut, the dollar is priced

Let’s take a step towards neutral, recognizing that we’re tightLots of ambiguity around what neutral level isFed policy is still in net tight positionLabor market is strong, want to keep it that way50 bps was a meaningful step to get process movingNo one on the committee was saying we should be holding ratesThere’s a lot

The dollar is trading a little mixed on the day, keeping higher against the yen but lower against the aussie. The former continues with the moves from the end of last week, with a slight bounce in bond yields also helping. 10-year Treasury yields are up another 2.6 bps to 3.741% currently. As for the

Headlines: Euro pressured lower as traders step up ECB rate cut odds for OctoberFrance September flash services PMI 48.3 vs 52.5 expectedGermany September flash manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expectedEurozone September flash services PMI 50.5 vs 52.1 expectedUK September flash services PMI 52.8 vs 53.5 expectedUK September CBI trends total orders -35 vs -21 expectedWeekly

Recent dots show a fair amount of dispersion in opinion at the FedFed is not in a ‘mad dash’ to neutral, in favor of not rushing to judgment or assuming job is done on inflationDoes not expect to see unemployment increase much furtherLabor market is ‘not flashing red’, optimistic about the future This article was

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The USD is mostly, but modestly lower. Overnight in China, authorities announced that PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng will hold a press conference on financial support for economic development. Shortly after that announcement, the PBOC cut the 14-day reverse

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% This comes as US futures have also pared its earlier gains, keeping flattish now. USD/JPY has also turned flat as it retreats back to just under 144.00 on the day. The high earlier in Asia touched 144.45 but that wasn’t sustained

Prior -22 UK factory order book balance fell to the lowest since November 2023 as export demand is also seen falling at the fastest pace since December 2020, according to CBI. The export order book balance plunged to a reading of -44, down from -22 in August, highlighting continued woes in the manufacturing sector. This

Monday is a bank holiday in Japan in observance of Autumnal Equinox Day. Later in the day we’ll see the release of flash manufacturing and services PMI data for the eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. On Tuesday, the focus will shift to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., key

France September flash services PMI 48.3 vs 52.5 expectedGermany September flash manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expected For some context, these odds have moved up quite a fair bit from ~35% right after the Fed decision last week. Things are certainly heating up for the ECB despite policymakers saying that they would prefer to skip

Prior 55.0Manufacturing PMI 44.0 vs 44.3 expectedPrior 43.9Composite PMI 47.4 vs 50.6 expectedPrior 53.1 Ouch. The jump in August was largely expected to be a one-off amid the boost in demand from the Paris Olympics. But it has faded off rather quickly with little to no spillover impact to September whatsoever. The headline reading is

I posted earlier on this, repeating it here: PBOC injected 74.5 bn yuan liquidity to banking system via 14-day reverse repo, with rate lowered to 1.85% from 1.95%.also injects 160.1 bn yuan liquidity via 7-day reverse repo, with rate unchanged at 1.7%. There has been ongoing speculation of a rate cut from the Bank, given

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This comes with US futures also sitting just a touch higher on the day, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%. For European indices, this is a mild bounce after the fall on Friday. The drop then put quite a bit of a dent to an otherwise positive week

The euro area economy is facing stagnation at the end of Q3 and that is rebuffing hopes for an October rate cut by the ECB. Market players only priced in a ~35% probability of that on Wednesday last week. But they have gradually stepped that up in the past few sessions, before running with it

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 75 bps (51% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 197 bps ECB: 46 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 165 bps BoE: 40 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 161 bps BoC: 72 bps (58%

Federal Reserve speakers on Monday include Bostic, Goolsbee and KashlkariAustralian authorities legal action on pricing strategies that drove up consumer pricesShell to shut production at two oil facilities in Gulf of MexicoEuropean Central Bank speakers Monday include Elderson and CipolloneUK Chancellor Reeves will be speaking on Monday at Labour Party conferencePeople’s Bank of China rate

Domestic sight deposits CHF 457.2 bn vs CHF 458.2 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Plenty of open mouths coming up during US time. The times listed below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 1200/0800 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks virtually on the economic outlook before the Distinguished Speakers Seminar convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre at the University of London1415/1015 Federal Reserve Bank

The U.S. presidential elections are arguably the most significant political event globally. Analysts are nervously monitoring the campaign, trying to figure out the possible implications for global risk assets. In this article, Octa aims to investigate how the result of the U.S. elections can impact crypto prices and the industry in general. Another exciting year

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Vice President Kamala Harris spoke in New York City on Sunday, raising funds. She did make a pledge on crypto though. “We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors.” Bloomberg (gated) carried the report, noting that Harris’ comments mark the first time she has commented on cryptocurrencies

I guess the interest in this for traders of Australian financial markets (not to mention those trashing the share price of the two supermarket chains) is it may end up trimming inflation. That’s me thinking out loud, we’ll see. Australia’s consumer watchdog, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), has accused Australia’s two largest (by

Shell will shut production at its Stones and Appomattox facilities in the Gulf of Mexico precautionary measure in response to a tropical disturbancehas begun evacuating non-essential personnel from its assets in the Mars Corridor The latest from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is that they expect the system located near the Gulf of Mexico has

Today it’s the Flash PMIs Day for Eurozone, UK and US. We will also hear from several Fed speakers as they will share their views about the latest policy decision. 08:00 GMT – Eurozone September Flash PMIs Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 45.6 expected vs. 45.8 prior.Eurozone Services PMI: 52.1 expected vs. 52.9 prior. 08:30 GMT –

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, the JPY weakened across the board following the BoJ policy decision as Governor Ueda made a surprisingly dovish turn by saying that “there is some time to make a decision on monetary policy because upside price risks have decreased given the recent FX moves”. He also mentioned that it’s important for

US politics site, Politico, with the news: House Republicans unveiled a stopgap spending bill to fund the government through Dec. 20short-term funding bill is expected to get a vote on the House floor by mid-week Last week a funding bill failed. Politico add: Congress races against a Sept. 30 government shutdown deadline More at the

Happy Monday to all! Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I am not expecting any comments on the economy nor monetary policy from these two. Of course, you never know, so here they are with timings. 0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time Opening remarks by ECB board member Frank Elderson at summit on Real estate climate data industry good practices organised by the European

Preliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI slips deeper into contraction at 46.7 prior 48.5 Services slips lower but remains in expansion at 50.6 prior 52.5 Composite dragged into contraction by the sliding manufacturing PMI, composite comes in at 49.8 prior 51.7 In summary from the report commentary: manufacturing sector contracted, posting its lowest index

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would be directing Bank of Japan intervention, should it come

The Australia ‘Greens’ party want RBA independence ended. The Greens said they’ll support changes at the RBA only if interest rates are cut. Australian Treasurer Chalmers is trying to create a new monetary policy board at the RBA, but do so he needs support of the Greens Party. The Greens preface their demands with the

Ladt week the Bank of England left rates unchanged: ForexLive European FX news wrap: BOE hold rates Nomura says GBP could rise even further now: “There appears to be little appetite on the Monetary Policy Committee to rush into rate cuts,” rate-cut expectations appear excessive and are likely to be unwoundthis should benefit sterling GBP

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will speak on Monday. will say “There will be no return to austerity. Conservative austerity was a destructive choice for our public services – and for investment and growth too” Reeves says there will be “tough decisions. But we won’t let that dim our ambition for Britain.” will

The latest from the US presidential campaign is that US Vice President Harris is set to release new economic proposals this week: expected midweeknew set of economic policies would aim to help Americans build wealth and set economic incentives for businesses to aid that goal Info via Reuters citing “three sources with knowledge of the

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese markets are closed today for observation of the Autumnal Equinox holiday that fell on Sunday. On the data agenda we have items from New Zealand and Australia. None of these are likely to shove around major FX too much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report on chip-makers TSMC and Samsung mulling building factory complexes in the UAE: on par with some of the company’s largest and most advanced facilities in Taiwan, according to people familiar with the interactionsdiscussions are still in the early phasescould be a cornerstone for artificial-intelligence investments in the

German leader Scholz’s centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) won Sunday’s regional election in stronghold Brandenburg. It was a very narrow win, by just one or two percentage points, according to exit polls. exit poll projections have SPD on 31 to 32%with far-right AfD on 29 to 30% If there is an FX implication it’ll be

Mon: Market Holiday: Japan (Autumnal Equinox); EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Sep), US National Activity Index (Aug)Tue: RBA Policy Announcement; German Ifo (Sep), US Consumer Confidence (Sep), Richmond Fed (Sep)Wed: Riksbank & CNB Policy Announcements; Australian CPI (Aug), US Building Permits Revision (Aug), New Home Sales (Aug), UK CBI Trends (Sep)Thu: SNB & Banxico

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan on Holiday, Australia/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs.Tuesday: Japan Flash PMI, RBA Policy Decision, German IFO, US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI.Thursday: SNB Policy Decision, US Durable Goods Orders, US Q2 Final GDP, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Tokyo CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE. Monday Monday will be the Flash PMIs Day for many major economies

The price of the WTI crude oil futures are settling up $0.16 and $71 a barrel. The high price today reached $71.41. The low price was at $70.40. Oil prices rebounded above $70.00, a level that has largely held sway over the past month, driven by tight supply and short covering by institutional investors. While

There is nothing here on the current outlook in the speech. He’s giving a lecture at Tulane University. It’s not clear if he will take questions. Monetary policy likened to driving a bus – need to balance speedMaximum employment involves job quality, not just quantityPhiladelphia Fed conducts research beyond monetary policyImportance of both “hard” and

Mixed end to the day for the major indicesQualcomm has approached Intel about a takeover in recent daysFed Harker: There is a risk that inflation decline could stallCrude oil futures settled up $0.16 at $71 a barrelFed’s Harker: The Fed has done a good job in navigating the economyBaker Hughes US oil rig count: Unchanged

Earlier today, in the kickstart video, I outlined the following key support level for the EURUSD. That level was shown and outlined between 1.1131 and 1.11399. Here is that clip…. So what happened? Below is the chart of the price action today. Of not is the low price stalled between the level outlined in the

In the kickstart video from earlier today, I highlighted the key levels in the GBPUSD. On the downside the 1.3265 was key support. Looking at the GBPUSD price action since then (see chart below), the low price for the day came in at 1.32676, just 2 pips short of the targeted support. So the buyers

Shares of Intel are trading up 5.82% after reports from the WSJ that Qualcomm approached the company about a takeover in recent days. The shares of Intel are down in 2024 from an end of year closing level of $50.25. The current price is up $1.23 or 5.82% at $22.37 in volatile trading . The

The major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results. It was triple witching hour so there was some end-of-day volatility, that could have impacted the price action. At the ending bell, the Dow industrial average is closing higher. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing lower. They small-cap Russell 2000 was

Fed’s Harker who has already spoken earlier today, is back on the wires saying: There is a risk that inflation decline could stallThere is a risk that labor market could soften This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is down -100 points or -0.55%. The prices back down testing the low price from yesterday near 17909.75. Early today, the price fell below that level on its way to fill the gap from Wednesday to Thursday ( i.e the high from Wednesday). Buyers came in near the level and pushed the

In the kickstart video for September 20, 2024, I take a look at three the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The EURUSD has traded up and down today but stayed below the 1.1184 – 1.11897 area. The 1.1184 level was initiated as a technical level going

Morgan Stanley anticipates a series of 25bp cuts from the Federal Reserve through mid-2025 and recommends maintaining short positions on USD/JPY, targeting a move towards 138. Key Points: FOMC Rate Decision: The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 50bp to 4.875%, reflecting ongoing progress on inflation and concerns regarding the labor market. Economic Projections

Sees progress on inflation and labor market cooling since mid-2023Believes smaller initial move preferable to avoid premature victory declaration I see the risk that the Committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price stability mandate Although hiring appears to have softened, layoffs remain lowConsumer spending reflects a

The Canadian dollar is in an interesting spot at the moment. Domestically, real estate markets are clearly hurting and it’s going to take at least 200 bps of rate cuts to fix it. But that’s coming. The government is also extremely unpopular but a change is coming there too, in no more than 13 months.

The recent drop in oil prices hasn’t curbed drilling yet but could hurt budgets for 2025. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD moved up and tested a swing level near 0.6823 in the Asian and European session. The price then moved lower as stocks fell in the early US trading. However, as the price of the AUDUSD approached its rising 100 hour moving average at 0.6778, the buyers have returned, and stalled the fall. Why

The NZDUSD continues to experience volatile price action following the FOMC rate decision, with today’s trading seeing an initial move to the downside. The fall took the price briefly below its 100-hour moving average, marking a departure from the recent trend. However, this break was short-lived, and the price has since reversed sharply to the

Aware of criticism on communication being insufficient, with regards to post-July meeting market routWould be good to have communicate more frequently on our view on price outlookMarket rout in early August was temporaryThe impact on consumption and financial system is negligibleSome evident in CPI data today that wage hikes are reflected in services pricesBut impact

The US stocks are moving a little higher on the Fed Waller comments. The Nasdaq index moved to a low of 17835.64. That got close to filling the gap from yesterday’s trading which had a gap down to 17832.70 (so got within 3 points of that level). The price has moved back toward the low

The economy is strong and inflation is coming downI was open to the idea that we could front-load and the inflation data during blackout pushed me in that directionCPI and PPI will feed into core PCE; which will be somewhere around 0.14%Over the last four months, core PCE running at 1.8% with very high housing-services

And they’re off…. The US stock market is open and the major indices are marginally lower to start the trading day after sharp gains yesterday. They snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average -113.26 points or -0.27% at 41911.93. Yesterday they Dow closed at a new record level.S&P index -12.8% points or -0.22%

German DAX futures -0.4%UK FTSE futures -0.5% This comes with US futures also marginally lower by around 0.1% currently. Equities enjoyed some post-Fed euphoria in trading yesterday but the party is meeting a bit of a pause as we turn over to the new day. That is keeping the dollar more muted in general as

Fundamental Overview On Wednesday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

The US stocks have started to weaken with the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices now down around -0.45%. The Dow industrial average is down -0.35%. For the NASDAQ index it has moved back below the swing high price from August 22. Yesterday the price moved above that level at 18014.24, but closed just below it

China state banks buying USD/CNY (selling onshore yuan) according to unnamed sources This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the clock ticks toward the weekend, a look at the USDCAD with a look toward next week is important. This week, the price action got more volatile on Wednesday helped by the FOMC rate decision. The initial move was to the downside, but the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour charts stalled the fall

📊 Sector Overview: Divergent Performances Across Markets Today’s US stock market presents a mixed bag of performances across various sectors. While some giants show resilience, others endure noticeable declines, painting a complex picture for investors. 📉 Semiconductor Sector: Declines Cast a Shadow The semiconductor sector is struggling, with big names showcasing a downturn. Nvidia (NVDA)

Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.7%Retail sales +2.5% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior +1.4%; revised to +1.5%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.1% vs +0.5% m/m expectedPrior +0.7%; revised to +1.0%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.3% vs +1.1% y/y expectedPrior +1.4% UK retail sales beat on estimates again in August with a rise in almost all categories. Some

Prelim was +0.6%August preliminary +0.5%Ex-autos +0.4% vs +0.3% expectedPrior ex-autos +0.3%Sales were up in seven of nine subsectorsEx-autos and gas +0.6% These numbers are a surprise, especially the August preliminary data, which runs opposite to what RBC cardholder data has been showing. For July, new car sales rose 2.2% and that drove much of the

The major stock indices moved sharply higher overnight in the Asian and European sessions after the FOMC rate decision gave foreign buyers a nudge to plow back in the US stocks. In the US session the day momentum continued with the NASDAQ index leading the way The NASDAQ index had its best day since August

In the morning video, I spoke about the 50% midpoint of the move up from the January 2023 low at 144.581. The price has been trading above and below that level over the last 1-2 months, but the run higher this week has returned back to the level, and that gives traders an option: Lean

It was a poor finish to Friday for European stocks and that led to a negative week. On the day: Stoxx 600 -1.5%German DAX -1.4%France’s CAC -1.5%UK’s FTSE 100 -1.2%Spain’s IBEX -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.8% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China’s power consumption is regularly used as a gauge of economic activity. It rose 8.8% y/y in August power consumption in primary industry and secondary industry rose 8.7% & 8.9% y/y respectivelyservice sector +10.8% (was +11.2 in July) For the first eight months of the year, China’s power consumption rose 9% y/y, unchanged from the

Goldman Sachs anticipates the Bank of England will implement a 25bp cut at the November meeting, following the recent decision to maintain the Bank Rate. Key Points: BoE Decision Details: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged and will maintain gilt stock reductions at £100 billion. Gradual Approach Signaled:

The People’s Bank of China is expected to cut its main policy reverse repo rate, along with its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) today. The rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week is expected ease the way for cuts from the PBOC. The PBOC has shifted to the 7 day repo rate as being the

Analysts at BlackRock are wary of Wednesday’s move from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), describing the extent of the rate cut as unexpected. They say that while the 50bp cut might benefit the markets in the short term, they believe it also increases the likelihood of more volatility, especially if growth and inflation don’t

Fundamental Overview Crude oil continues to remain supported as the buyers might be looking forward to the consequences of the Fed’s easing cycle on economic activity. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason

Bloomberg carry the report saying that China is considering removing some of the largest remaining restrictions on home purchases. Add that ‘after previous measures failed to revive a moribund housing market’ Bloomberg citing unnamed sources ‘familiar with the matter’. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I saw this nostalgic photo of the IBM office in Toronto in 1963 yesterday and it’s a good one to share ahead of today’s economic calendar, which is heavy on Canada. Canadian retail sales and PPI are due at the bottom of the in what’s an otherwise-quiet day on the data calendar. Yesterday, RBC’s Canadian

Following the Bank of England’s decision to maintain policy rates, Credit Agricole highlights the GBP’s emerging status as a high-yield currency, supported by the potential for future easing. Key Points: BoE Decision and Forward Guidance: The BoE kept rates unchanged in September while signaling future gradual easing. Only one member dissented for a 25bp cut,

It is better to remain restrictive for longerWe can cut more aggressively later once inflation risk is containedThere appears to be more upside risks to inflation in the UKUK has seen more of an impact on services pricesContemplated to vote to cut rates in August but wanted to avoid “boogie-dance” on rates She also adds

Fed Governor Chris Waller scheduled for an 11:30 a.m. ET appearance on CNBC. It will be the first set of Fed comments since the decision as the blackout lifts. He could start to frame how the FOMC will think about the November meeting. At the moment, the market is pricing in a 59% chance of

The dollar fell in trading yesterday as the post-Fed digestion continues to play out. Equities ripped higher but so far today, there hasn’t been much follow through. USD/JPY is down slightly as the BOJ keeps monetary policy unchanged but dollar pairs in general are holding on to narrow ranges thus far. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures

Prior +0.2% The slight bump in August owes mostly to energy prices (+0.8%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually flat on the month in Germany. Looking at the other individual breakdowns, intermediate goods prices fell by 0.3%, capital goods prices rose by 0.1%, durable consumer goods rose by 0.2%, and non-durable consumer

Fundamental Overview On Wednesday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

Up, up and away for gold? The bulls are certainly looking poised and are angling for the next leg higher now as we approach European trading. Price is running above the $2,600 mark to fresh all-time highs as the post-Fed musings continue to play out. Traders are starting to push odds of another 50 bps

1800 GMT / 1400 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speakingtopic is “The Federal Reserve: It’s More Than Just Interest Rates” before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview On Wednesday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

Prior was -13.5 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: BOJ governor Ueda: Japan economy is recovering moderately, although there is some weaknessBOJ governor Ueda: Recent data confirms economy is moving in line with our outlookBOJ governor Ueda: Will carefully communicate thinking behind policy decision with marketsBOJ governor Ueda: Easy monetary conditions are in place as real rates remain negativeGold tops $2,600 as the

The USDCHF continues to trade within a narrow range, fluctuating between 0.8400 and 0.85368 since August 20 (a month ago now). The majority of price action has been contained within this range, with brief extremes on either side that quickly fizzled out. Key technical levels include the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at

Prior 97Manufacturing confidence 99Prior 99Services confidence 98Prior 98 Sentiment for the industry and services remains unchanged from the month before. But the good news at least is that the employment climate has returned back to its long-term average of 100, up from 98 previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

1230 GMT / 0830 Eastern time: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is giving a speech at the National Bureau of Economic ResearchEconomics of Artificial Intelligence Conference BoC is on a rate cutting cycle. Earlier in the week we heard from: Bank of Canada Rogers still sees work to do on inflation, but core should

Uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain highMust pay due attention to financial markets and impact on the economy, pricesWill keep adjusting degree of easing if outlook on economy, prices is to be realisedWill monitor economic, market trends with extremely high sense of urgencyMarkets remain unstable (referring to Uchida’s take of not raising rates when it

Eurostoxx -0.4%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.5%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% This comes as S&P 500 futures are also seen down 0.1% with Nasdaq futures down 0.2% currently. Overall, it’s just a minor check back for stocks on the week. Investors are still contemplating some post-Fed musings and we’ll see what Wall

Prior IPPI MoM 0.0% Prior raw material price (RMPI) MoM 0.7%IPPI YoY 0.2% vs 2.9% last month revised to 2.8%RMPI MoM -3.1% vs -2.0% estimateRMPI YoY -2.5% vs 4.1% last month Much lower than expectations. For the IPPI Lower prices for energy and petroleum products were mainly responsible for the decline. Excluding energy and petroleum

Fundamental Overview The Fed this week finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

The Fed might be signaling that they intend to cut by just 25 bps each in November and December. However, they’ve shown this week that they can be bullied into a decision by markets. The onus now lies on economic data in the weeks ahead to vindicate the Fed’s outlook. So, if we are to

The dollar fell in trading yesterday but there’s no extension to that so far today. Besides USD/JPY, other dollar pairs remain relatively muted after some light extension to the ranges earlier. Here’s a snapshot of things currently: GBP/USD did nudge up to a high of 1.3340 after the upbeat UK retail sales data but has

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Inflation could be more-prone than it was in the past 25 years in a shock-prone worldCentral banks need to be closely attuned to how AI is affecting inflation, both indirectly and directlyAI is expected to boost productivity, when labor productivity is rising, economy can grow more quickly without causing inflationAI could destroy more jobs than

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is stronger. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates unchanged at 0.25% during its September 2024 monetary policy meeting. This was as expected. The BOJ noted that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, though some weaknesses

Discover how to perform volume analysis with deadly accuracy to spot and trade reversals in the market The post The Essential Guide To Volume Analysis appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by Catherine L Mann, external member of the monetary policy committee for Bank of Englandvenue is the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland and Bank of Lithuania 5th biennial conferencethe conference title is “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” – Also speaking is David

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and layered between 1.1150 and 1.1200. Given the more muted action so far, the expiries could keep price action in check before rolling off later in the day. If the dollar does weaken further,

We raised assessment on private consumption as wages are growingRecent data suggests we may be able to raise outlook on underlying inflationHowever, overseas trends raise uncertainties on thatBut there is no change to our thinking that will keep raising rates if economy moves in line with outlookNot yet able to narrow down Japan’s estimated neutral

CBA have moved their expected timing of the first Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut from November 2024 to December 2024 expect a 25bp cutrecent strength in employment growth coupled with still relatively hawkish rhetoric from the RBA Governor means we now see December as the more likely month for the start of normalising the

Bank of Japan current short-term rate is 0.25% Japan’s economy recovering moderately, albeit with some weaknessesInflation expectations heightening moderatelyInflation likely to be at level generally consistent with BOJ’s price target in second half of our 3-year projection period through fiscal 2026Consumption rising moderately as a trendJapan’s economy likely to achieve growth above potentialMust be vigilant

Reuters poll of economists on what they expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on September 24: all 45 surveyed expect the cash rate to remain at 4.35%40 expect that rate to persist through 2024the median expectation is for a 25bp rate cut in Q1 of 2025 Reasoning is, in a nutshell, that while

US initial jobless claims 219K vs 230K estimateSeptember Philly Fed +1.7 vs -1.0 expectedUS August existing home sales 3.86m vs 3.90m expectedECB’s Schnabel: Inflation outlook remains challenging, policy vigilance neededCanadian consumer spending struggled in August – RBC trackerBOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as expectedBOE’s Bailey: Optimisitic UK rates will fall further, need more

US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke at en event in Washinton DC on Thursday. Yellen was Chair of the Federal Reserve System before Powell, and is now a political appointee. On the rate cut: “It reflects confidence on the part of the Fed that inflation has come way down and is on the path back to

US economy achieving soft landing is our main scenarioIf US economy achieves soft landing, negative impact on Japan economy would be smallJapan interest rate is probably still lower than neutral rate despite rate hikesWe don’t react directly to forex rates but their impact on inflation outlookWe will not use monetary policy to control forex rates

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg: China Weighs Removing Major Homebuying Curbs to Boost DemandFederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker speaking on FridayChina’s electricity consumption rose 8.9% year on year in AugustRBA meting next week – preview – to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35%Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expectedEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde

It wasn’t just the BOJ that was the only Asian central bank in focus today. The PBOC was also on the agenda but left the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged, even though there were some expectations for a cut. Here’s the round up of the week in central banks so far: Federal Reserve September interest

We have left the door totally open The headline rebuffs the narrative that they are set to keep rates unchanged next month. They may be “open” to moving at any meeting but it is clear that they are comfortable with leaving things as they are for October, at least for now. This article was written

In the European session, the only highlight was the UK Retail Sales report which surprised to the upside across the board. In the American session, we have the Canadian Retail Sales and PPI data. Downside surprises will likely reinforce the markets expectations for a 50 bps cut from the BoC at the upcoming meeting with

Earlier in the US session, I posted: The price did bounce off the 100-hour MA, and after getting above the 1.1140 level, has extended up to a corrective high of 1.1167. The next target comes in at the high for the day at 1.1178. Above that and the high from yesterday and from August 28

HSBC is eyeing the RBA higher for longer vs. an easing Federal Reserve. Various reports from analysts at the bank cite the strong labour market report yesterday alongside sticky high inflation as helping to bolster both: market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates unchangedand for AUD/USD Conclusions of the reports include

The market is frothy at the thought of a soft landing today after Powell pledged to preserve the strength of the economy yesterday and delivered a half-point cut. Fed projections are for 4.4% unemployment through next year and — presumably — anything higher than that would bring more-aggressive cuts. That’s a strong put on growth

Christopher Luxon is Prime Minister of New Zealand Speaking in a TV interview. Luxon says has limited fiscal space to stimulate the economy. tighter fiscal policy helps in the fight on inflation – Yesterday data confirmed the NZ economy shrunk in Q2: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) This article was written by

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is the ‘state planner’. From a news conference held late on Thursday: Approved 83 fixed-asset investment projects worth a total of 673.1 billion yuan in January-August.We are capable and confident of achieving full-year economic and social development goals.Will roll out a batch

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

People’s Bank of China leaves 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.35% and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85%. The five-year rate is used as a reference for long-term credit including mortgages. Polling had shown expectations for a rate cut: People’s Bank of China rate cuts are expected today: LPRs, repo —

Japanese CPI Overall 3.0% y/y expected 3.0%, prior 2.8% Core CPI (excluding fresh food) 2.8% y/y expected 2.8%, prior 2.7% Core-core 2.0% y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 1.9%excluding fresh food and energy, this is the closest to US core inflation All three CPI data points are higher than in the previous month. While the BoJ is

UK GfK Consumer Confidence September 2024 is disappointing, turns even more deeply pessimistic. Comes in at a six-month low of -20 in September, a seven point drop from August expected -13, prior -13August’s -13 was the (joint) best in nearly three years GfK comments: households appeared to be responding to the messages from PM Starmer

The head of US fixed income from Wells Fargo was on CNBC today and he made the point that sub-3.5% in US 10s is too low for the environment we’re in. The Fed is now cutting and prepared to cut aggressively to preserve US economic strength. Sub-3.5% with Fed funds at 4.75-5.00% is a recession

1500 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture by ECB President Christine Lagarde organised by the IMF 1530 GMT / 1130 US Eastern time Conversation between ECB President Christine Lagarde and Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director IMF, at 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organised by the IMF in Washington, USA

ICYMI, Justin ahd the headline on this Thursday: Goldman Sachs now sees Fed cutting by 25 bps at each meeting until June next year Adding in a little more now: from the GS note. Analsyst at the bank argue that the main reason for the larger rate cut, and the key takeaway from the meeting,

The Bank of Japan policy statement is due sometime in 0230 – 0330 GMT time slot (2230 – 2330 US Eastern time) The BoJ is likely to hold monetary policy steady, the current short-term rate is 0.25%, and maintain its view the economy will continue to recover moderately as rising wages underpin consumption. Signalling from

UBS on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut and outlook for US equities. In summary: With signs that inflation is being brought under control, the Federal Reserve can now shift its focus to fostering job growth and economic expansion while managing the risk of a recession. UBS continue to expect 100 basis points

Morgan Stanley shifts its risk outlook on the USD to neutral and recommends going long on JPY against the USD and other risk-sensitive currencies amid heightened concerns of a hard landing. Key Points: Risk Skew Adjustment: Morgan Stanley adjusts its risk skew on the USD to neutral in light of ongoing market turbulence and hard-landing

The GBPUSD experienced a volatile session today, similar to many other pairs. Following the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the price surged to a high of 1.33132. However, the momentum reversed after the US weekly jobless claims report came in better than expected, prompting a rotation lower. The price tested a

August National CPI data from Japan is due on Friday Japan time. We have had the Tokyo CPI data for August, which came in higher vs. July: Tokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%) The Bank of Japan statement follows a few hours later. There is no set time for the BoJ

The bulls aren’t letting off the gas pedal today with the S&P 500 now at the highs of the day, rising 2% or 114 points to 5732. The Nasdaq is also up 3%. Some of the leaders are AMD (+7%), Tesla (+7%), ABNB (+6.6%) and NVDA (+5.5%). This article was written by Adam Button at

The AUDUSD is trading higher today, boosted by risk-on sentiment as US stocks surge. The Dow is up 633 points (1.52%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 2.00% and 2.95%, respectively. In the European session, the AUDUSD reached a new high, but struggled to sustain momentum above a key resistance zone between 0.6818

The Bank of England meets today, Thursday, September 19, 2024. Decision due at 1100 GMT 0700 US Eastern time I posted a preview earlier here: BoA anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain Bank Rate at 5.0% at meeting today TD is also tipping an on hold result: 7-2 vote expected TD outline 3

This is obviously some kind of act of war but the attacks have likely been so effective that the war is over before it even began. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points yesterday, but since then, the US 30 year mortgage rate has moved up six basis points to 6.17%. Of course the Fed funds rate is a shorter-term overnight lending rate that the Fed targets in its monetary policy. Meanwhile, mortgage rates are more closely tied to

Prior was 3.95m (revised to 3.96m)Sales -2.5% vs +1.3% prior Sales -4.2% vs -2.5% y/y priorInventory 4.2 vs 4.0 months priorMedian prices $416,700 vs $422,600 priorPrices +3.1% vs +4.2% y/y prior These are closings for contracts signed in June and July. This is a two-tier market with high-end homes (above $700K) selling and everything below

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

RBC’s Canadian consumer spending tracker is a good measure of real-time spending based on credit card data. Usually it’s released around the 10th of the month and I’ve been checking it daily, wondering why the long wait. It’s finally out and shows that August retail sales ex-autos, likely declined on a month-over-month basis both before

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as expectedDollar struggles on the session, equities ramp higher as wellWeekly update on interest rate expectationsFed still on track to cut rates by 125 bps in total for 2024 – CitiGoldman Sachs now sees Fed cutting by 25 bps at each meeting until June next yearECB’s Schnabel:

New Zealand economic growth data for the April to June quarter of 2024 NZD/USD is around 0.6219, not a lot of change on this result. – New Zealand’s economy contracted in Q2 retail trade and accommodation, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and wholesale trade slowed The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had forecast the economy contracted

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The USDCAD price action is experiencing high volatility in today’s trading, following yesterday’s bounce between support and resistance levels. Initially, the price moved upward, breaking above the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the August high, which stood at 1.3633. However, after reaching a peak of 1.3647 in the Asian session, the momentum shifted,

Since its launch in April 2024, mobile-first trading platform 50K.Trade has revolutionized personal finance and investing for Europeans. With its user-friendly interface, commission-free trading, and high interest rates on unused cash, it is creating a buzz, particularly among millennials and first-time investors. If you’re considering using 50K.Trade or are curious about its features, here are

As such, they are maintaining their outlook for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November before closing things out with a 25 bps cut in December. The latter is changed as Citi did previously expect the Fed to go by 25 bps yesterday before moving by 50 bps in November and December. But

New Zealand economc growth data leads off the calendar. Another contraction for the economy is expected. I posted earlier in the week in the view from NZ Treasury: New Zealand Treasury see more positive data, but no firm sign of a recovery just yet Australian labour market data follows. I’ll have more to come on

The Bank of England held rates at 5.00% today in a move that wasn’t certain but wasn’t entirely expected. Economists at Deutsche Bank forecast no change and after the announcement spike, the pound gave back gains. DB highlighted three takeaways from the decision: 1)There was only one dissent in the 8-1 vote. They thought there

The NASDAQ index is leading the way to the upside today with a gain of 490 points or 2.8% at 18064. The high price reached 18078.20. That took the index up 504.90 points on the day. At session lows today the price was still up 336.45 points. Although surging, the price is still 3.29% away

The kneejerk reaction was for a weaker dollar as yields came off slightly as well. But all that didn’t last too long as the yields bounced back alongside the dollar. Equities raced higher initially too before falling back to close lower by the end of the day. The sell the fact trade prevailed, or at

It is the day after…. The day after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. US stocks are sharply higher as a Fed initiated a floor at all-time highs in the Dow and S&P. HMMMM. However, the Fed sees it as a “recalibration” of rates after restrictive policy that helped to lower inflation over the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 has extended gains to 103 points, or 1.8%. The Nasdaq is up 2.8%. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 is looking awfully good if it can get through Friday at these levels. The FX market isn’t quite as enthusiastic but that’s because the bond market is looking further out and pricing

The USDCHF continues to experience volatile price action, with the current move testing a crucial downside target. After failing to break above the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the mid-August high to the September low, the price has rotated back to the downside. The 38.2% retracement level was situated at 0.85172, with the

Prior was -237.6B (revised to -241.0B) This will be a drag on growth but it’s inevitable in an outperforming economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s finance minister Choi Sang-mok said the government will closely coordinate with the central bank and regulators to deploy contingency plans for financial markets if needed as external uncertainties persist after the Fed lowered interest ratesalso said he expects South Korea’s household debt growth to gradually easebut stands ready to swiftly announce additional measures

For newcomers to the world of foreign exchange trading, one of the most crucial decisions is determining the optimal time to engage in the forex market. Unlike traditional stock markets, the forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, presenting both opportunities and challenges for beginners. This article will explore the best

Prior week initial jobless claims 230K revised to 231K Prior week continuing claims 1.850M revised to 1.843M Initial jobless claims comes in strong and expected at 219K versus 230K estimate. Smallest sincethird week in May when it was at 216KThe 4-week moving average was 227,5K a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average.

Eurostoxx +1.0%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +1.3%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.9%Italy FTSE MIB +0.8% S&P 500 futures are up 1.1%, Nasdaq futures up 1.6%, and Dow futures up 0.7% currently. There was a bit of a hiccup right after the Fed decision yesterday but equities are looking to bounce back stronger today. It looks like

The ECB’s Schnabel published a series of slides on the ECB website. She highlights sticky services inflation. Services inflation remains sticky, keeping headline inflation elevatedPrice pressures in services sector are broad-based and globalMedium-term inflation projections often clustered around 2% target, but risks remainWage growth expected to slow, but real wage catch-up still incomplete in parts

The economic woes for Germany are coming from every direction. High energy prices and competition from China are undermining its manufacturing and export-oriented economy. The problems at Volkswagen are apparently worse than previously assumed, according to Manager-Magazine. In the medium term, the number of employees in Germany alone could be reduced by 30,000 to 100,000,

Largest Gathering with 20000+ Visitors and 200+ Exhibitors marking it as one of the largest Expo in the world with just 2 Weeks remaining the excitement is building to date. Forex Expo Dubai 2024 will bring together Top Industry Leaders, renowned guest speakers, and a myriad of experiences designed to engage and inspire attendees. Forex

July 31September 18, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT ShareShare Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderatedslowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated.

Sector Overview The US stock market is experiencing a strong upward momentum today, with significant gains across major sectors. Notably, the technology and consumer cyclical sectors are posting impressive results. Key players like Microsoft (MSFT) are up by 2.23%, and Nvidia (NVDA) is surging with a remarkable 3.70% increase. Consumer cyclical stocks are also enjoying

Forex trading is a profitable business but at the same time, it is not an easy business. As there are so many courses out there, it is helpful to know what to consider in order to avoid wasting time, money and energy. To ensure that you get the best forex trading course here is a

The volatility in the EURUSD continues as the price has rotated back down after a spike lower in the Asian session, and a spike higher in the European session. The price is currently testing its 100-hour moving average of 1.1117. This represents a target on the downside that if broken would then have traders looking

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is lower but with gains vs the JPY and the CHF. The USD is lower by 0.60% vs the GBP after the BOE kept rates unchanged a meeting after cutting by 25 basis points. The bullet

China took action against nine U.S. military-affiliated companies on Wednesday in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, freezing their assets within China. This move is the latest effort to increase pressure on the United States to cease its weapons sales to the island. Organisations and individuals within China are prohibited from engaging in transactions

This is a tough stat to ignore from JPMorgan. “.. Over the past 40 years, the Fed has cut rates 12 times with the S&P 500 within 1% of an all-time highs. The market was higher a year later all 12 times with an average return of around 15%.” S&P 500 futures are up 93

The major US stock indices are ripping to the upside after the after the Fed recalibrated rates by 50 basis points and projects two more 25 bp cuts before the end of the year. A snapshot of the market eight minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average up 536.75 points or 1.29% at

The USDCAD moved lower with the dollar but as the comments from the Fed chair were sprinkled with the “economy is not doing badly”, gave the USD a boost. Looking at the USDCAD, moving below the cluster of MAs between 1.3580 to 1.3588 could not be helped but the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour

The Bank of America fund manager survey is always a good read as it offers up some indications on which trades are over-crowded and which ones are under-loved. This week’s survey showed improving global sentiment on soft landing optimism but a big rotation into defensives and things that will benefit from lower rates like utilities

Rates cut to 8.00% from 8.25%Decision was unanimous2025 CPI seen at 4.1% vs 4.4% priorKganyago says hold, 25 and 50 bps were on the table The global disinflationary wave is ongoing. Eight per cent is still a tough pill to swallow but rates should come down. “In the near term, we continue to see a

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

Decision-making process starts a month before announcement with economic projectionsGoverning Council uses consensus approach, not voting system like Fed or BoECurrent focus on sticky inflation in services, including shelter costsIncreased consideration given to risk of inflation falling below 2% targetEmphasizes BOC’s commitment to bringing inflation back to targetFull speech The speech is an interesting one

Need to see residual inflation pressures disappearImperative that UK improves its current potential growth of 1.2-1.3% More to come GBP/USD has slackened to 1.3250 after touching above 1.33 and the highs of the year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 5.00%Bank rate vote 8-0-1 vs 7-0-2 expected (only Dhingra dissented, wanting to cut by 25 bps)Need to be careful not to cut rates too fast or by too muchMost MPC members think in the absence of material developments, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint would be warrantedLabour market continued to loosen but that

Prior was -7.0New orders: -1.5 vs 14.6 priorShipments: -14.3 vs 8.5 priorUnfilled orders: -6.7 vs 3.2 priorDelivery times: -0.7 vs 14.1 priorInventories: 5.0 vs -4.8 priorPrices paid: 34.0 vs 24.0 priorPrices received: 24.6 vs 13.7 priorEmployment: 10.7 vs -5.7 priorAverage workweek: -13.6 vs -2.3 prior The employment metric and most future indicators improved. The manufacturing

It was a cruel, counter-intuitive squeeze in markets in the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision. It was something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade but Asian markets had a look at the state of play and decided that sometimes a cut is just a cut, not a sign of panic. As I wrote late

The price of crude oil is trading lower as the Fed Powell is conference continues. The settlement price came in at $69.88, and the current price is trading at $69.35. The low for the day reached $68.61. The high for the day was at $70.28. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

We’re seeing fresh highs now for the euro, pound, and the commodity currencies against the dollar. EUR/USD is up 0.5% to 1.1170 with GBP/USD also up 0.5% to 1.3280 currently. AUD/USD in particular is seeing a strong jump to its highest levels for the year, up 1% to 0.6835. The pair had struggled to clear

Bank of England meets today, Thursday, September 19, 2024: 1100 GMT is 0700 US Eastern time — The below is the eFX summary of a note via Bank of America on the Bank of England and GBP For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial,

Looking at the breakdown, surpluses were recorded for goods (€35 billion) and services (€19 billion). Meanwhile, deficits were recorded for secondary income (€13 billion) and primary income (€1 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on the data from New Zealand showing not quite as bad economic contraction as expected. But, still contraction: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) Responses: What’s coming up from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after the weak NZ GDP dataNew Zealand GDP data showed a contraction, not as bad

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are all for EUR/USD, layered in between 1.1100 through to 1.1150. Traders are still largely digesting the Fed decision from yesterday but the expiries above could play a role in locking price action in and around the range

The Fed gave market players what they wanted with a 50 bps rate cut yesterday. And the aftermath so far has been… fairly calm to be fair. The dollar did drop on the kneejerk reaction yesterday but that didn’t last too long. Treasury yields are bouncing back up and that’s creating for some mixed moves

0xProcessing, a crypto payment gateway with its own proprietary blockchain infrastructure and high level of security, today announced that it now supports Base, an Ethereum Layer-2 blockchain network, with ETH and USDC being the first coins to be supported by the service. The expansion of 0xProcessing capabilities is aimed at offering its customers an improved

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 72 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 196 bps ECB: 38 bps (65% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 152 bps BoE: 50 bps (79% probability of no change at today’s meeting) 2025: 161 bps BoC: 75 bps (58% probability

Price pressures in the services sector are broad-based and globalPass-through of higher wages to producer prices is stronger in the services sectorMomentum in services remains high and above levels consistent with price stabilityMedium-term inflation projections often clustered around 2% targetWage growth expected to slow down as past price shocks unwindPrivate sector forecasts suggest conditions for

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

Everything has aligned for gold in the past six months with Chinese investors looking for something new, Russia diversifying and the Fed getting on top of inflation. Eyes are on $2600 now but it’s all blue skies from a technical perspective now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

The Fed delivered a big cut but it was a case of ‘sell the fact’ as equities couldn’t keep the winning streak going. I think at the end of the day, you have a ‘Fed put’ now and that wins out but we could see a squeeze tomorrow. S&P 500 -0.2%Nasdaq Comp -0.2%DJIA -0.2%Russell 2000

The European session is empty on the data front with just a low tier release like the Eurozone current account. Just before the start of the American session, we have the BoE rate decision which is going to be one of the main events for today coupled with the US jobless claims figures. 11:00 GMT/07:00

The dollar is lower in European morning trade, as the post-Fed reaction is starting to weigh more heavily now. USD/JPY traded to a high of 143.94 in Asia but has been dragged all the way back down now to roughly flat levels on the day at 143.18. Looking at broader markets, equities are running higher

The EURUSD moved higher (lower USD) after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. The price extended higher and toward swing highs for the year. The 2nd to last swing high target was at 1.11897, and that level was reached. What wasn’t reached was the double top at 1.12009 from August 23 and August 26..

You’ll notice that the HKMA base rate is slightly above the Fed Funds rate. The HKD trades in a band linked to the US dollar prescribed by the HKMA. You can see the limits of the band in the chart below. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) adjusts its interest rates in line with the

New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) I posted the summary take from ANZ New Zealand here: expect the RBNZ to deliver 25bp cuts at each meeting More now, via Reuters. This from ASB, who stick to their call for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut by another 50 basis points by the

German DAX futures +0.7%UK FTSE futures +0.8% US futures are also on the up with tech shares leading the charge. S&P 500 futures are now up 1.0% while Nasdaq futures are up by 1.5% on the day. Dow futures meanwhile are up by 0.6% currently. Fresh highs are beckoning for US equities again after the

New Zealand remains in a prolonged recession. RBNZ needs to get cash rate below 4%, asap.Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Analysts Predict No Change in RatesAustralian August unemployment rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0983 (vs. estimate at 7.0924)What’s coming up from the Reserve Bank of New

The firm is changing up their call after the Fed moved more aggressively to start things off with a 50 bps rate cut here. Their previous call was for the Fed to only perform quarterly cuts in 2025. But now, they are expecting the Fed to go with 25 bps rate cuts at each of

Prior CHF 4.89 billion; revised to CHF 4.88 billion The Swiss trade surplus narrowed in August with the breakdown seen below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The jobs market report for August is due today from the Australian Bureau of Statistics: 11.30 am Sydney time0130 GMT2130 US Eastern time As you’ll see in the screenshot below, the previous month’s report, July, showed another huge gain in jobs, carrying on the trend of strong employment growth over the past year. Note also

The USD is trading higher across the major FX board. Its particularly notable against the JPY. USD/JPY is around 143.90, from lows in the session earlier aroudn142.00! The dollar weakened in the lead up to the FOMC and has strengthened since. ‘Buy the fact’ indeed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The bill was to fund the government for 6 months. Its failed. There are 12 days until the government shuts down. Reuters: The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday voted to defeat a stopgap government funding bill brought forward by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, as some members of his own party opposed the measure.

The data from NZ earlier is here: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) Via ANZ New Zealand, their take (in summary): The New Zealand economy contracted 0.2% q/q in Q2 on a seasonally adjusted basis … above the RBNZ’s forecast of -0.5% q/q.Despite an upward surprise for the RBNZ, overall economic momentum remains

The latest from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the Labour Force report, August 2024. Employment +47.5k expected +25.0k, prior +58.2k Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Participation Rate 67.1% expected 67.1%, prior 67.1% Full Time Employment -3.1k prior + 60.5k The headline jobless rate has not disappointed. And the headline employment addition appears

The focus of the Wednesday session was, of course, on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). But, ICYMI, a development for stock exchanges of note. The share market top regulator, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC),has voted to allow stock exchanges to price many shares in increments of half a cent, rather than the

The only news of note has been the rate cut from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday: Just waking up? Here’s the short summary of Wednesday’s FOMC rate cutForexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Sep: Fed starts rate cuts with a 50 bp cut Lower US rates mean a lower USD, right?

August National CPI data from Japan is due on Friday. We have had the Tokyo CPI data for August, which came in higher vs. July: Tokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%) The Bank of Japan statement follows a few hours later. There is no rate change expected: Bank of Japan meeting

US equity close: Big Fed cut can’t fuel an 8th day of gainsThe ‘ole FOMC ‘sell the fact’ hits againCrude oil settles down eight cents at $69.88Powell Q&A: We concluded that 50 basis point cut was the right thingPowell opening statement: We’re committed to preserving our economy’s strengthGold rallies to a record high after the

FOMC cut policy rates by 50 bp target range is now 4.75-5.00%2024 dot down to 4.4%, indicating another 50 bp by year-end (it was line ball, the difference between year end 25bp and 50bp was only one dot) … expectations are currently 25 bp in November and 25 bp in December.longer-run dot was revised higher

Here is the dot plot from June 2024: Here is the dot plot from September 2024: Below is the table economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation. Summary of the eocnomic projections: GDP steadyUnemployment rate moved higher with 4.4% the peakPCE inflation lower. To 2.1% by end of 2025 and 2.0%

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the razzle dazzle on Wednesday with a 50 basis point cut to start the rate-lowering cycle. Economists didn’t expect the move but markets had sniffed it out with Fed funds futures pricing in a 55% chance of a larger cut. The immediate reaction was a ‘risk on’ one that

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision 25bp SELIC rate hike more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The initial reaction on the 50 basis point rate Is for the US dollar to move lower: USDJPY. The USDJPY moved to a low of 140.76. That was within five pips of the swing low from last Wednesday’s trading day. The price is currently trading below its 100-hour moving average above at 141.09 at 140.98.

Powell will begin speaking at 2:30 pm ET. He will deliver an opening statement and then take questions. The press conference usually lasts an hour, or slightly less. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We’ve seen this one before. You can game out the Fed decision as much as possible but the market loves to punish both sides of the trade. That’s exactly what we’re getting at the moment as the US dollar recoups all its FOMC losses, and in some cases more than that. I think the bond

The USDJPY has announced higher after all and below the low from last Wednesday at 140.71 but stalling ahead of the December 2023 low price at 140.248. The low price reached 140.43. With the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 141.07, it keeps the buyers in play. However, they will still need to

The full statement from the September 2024 rate decision: September 18, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Share Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made

Decision reflects our growing confidence that strength in our labor market can be maintainedConsumer spending has remained resilientEconomy is strong overallLabor market has continued to coolIf inflation were to fall more quickly, we are prepared to respondWe will adjust policy as necessary Quoteable: “This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of

We had 2 jobs and 2 employment reports since last meeting and jobs data revisionsCites Beige BookA good place to start on what’s coming next is the SEPWe will take it meeting by meetingWe’re in the process of re-calibrating our policy stance, that will take place over timeThere is nothing in the SEP that suggests

Bowman dissents in 11-1 voteNo change to QE, as expectedEconomists widely expected a 25 bps cutFed funds futures priced the likelihood of 50 bps at 59%Fed funds were in range of 5.25% to 5.50% before the decisionNow says: The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that

The GBPUSD did make a run to the upside in the early US session and in the process extended above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3230. I talked about that area in the earlier video starting at the 7-minute mark. The move above that level extended the price of the GBPUSD toward the high

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In this video, I take a look at the technical roadmap for traders through the FOMC rate decision. What would increase the bearish bias and why? What would shift the bias more to the bullish side – at least in the short term. With the price lower and trading near 2024 lows, and the price

It’s wild that in 2027 — seven years after the pandemic emergency — governments will still be breaking eurozone deficit rules. This obviously doesn’t end well. In the long analysis, I think it will show that the optimum path for politicians trying to win the next election is to spend more, in part because the

The Atlanta Fed GDPnow growth estimate for Q3 falls to 2.9% from 3.0% last. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on September 18, down from 3.0 percent on September 17. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census

The major US stock indices are trading within 0.03% of unchanged as the market calmly wait for the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The S&P index reached a high price today of 5642.84. Yesterday, a new all-time high price was reached intraday at 5670.82. The high closing level is up 5669.67. The Dow

The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is lower (and the weakest) ahead of the FOMC rate decision which will take place at 2 PM today. At that time, the Fed will not only decide on whether it is 25 or 50 basis

Some Governing Council members were more concerned about downside risks to inflationConcern about downside risks was linked to potential further weakening of economy and labor marketOther members took the view that risks to inflation outlook were balancedMembers discussed whether weakness in Canadian consumption and housing could partly be due to caution on the part of

The People’s Bank of China will set Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Friday September 20: these benchmark lending rates remained unchanged in Augustone-year loan prime rate stayed at 3.35%the five-year rate was maintained at 3.85% In July China’s central bank confirmed several reforms to its interest rate framework, shifting from using the previous LPR precursor

Crude oil inventories -1.630M vs -0.500M estGasoline inventories +0.069M vs +0.240M estimateDistillates inventories +0.125M vs +0.551M estimateCushing -1.979M vs -1.704M last weekrefining utilization -0.7% versus expectations of -1.0%. Previously -0.5% The private inventory data yesterday showed yields of around 2M for crude, gasoline and distillates. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

This data point tends not to shift NZD/USD around much at all upon release. More data yet to come from NZ: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has been trading in a sideways pattern even though CPI data out of a Canada yesterday was weaker than expected. The unemployment rate is also moving higher with that at the highest level since 2017 (if you take out the spike from 2020 to 2021). The fundamentals are probably weaker in Canada which

Treasury yields are up 4 basis points across the curve in a sign of either: The market over-pricing a dovish FedAngst ahead of the Fed decision I tend to think it’s the latter as bond buyers have flooded in over the past two months. US 10s highlight just how far the move has come and

I had a chance to speak with TradeGateHub earlier today about the FOMC decision, how to trade it and what I’m thinking about in terms of global growth. We also touched on CAD, precious metals, energy and the outlook for stock markets. The main takeaway for today is something I touch in within the first

This is via Westpac’s preview of the inflation data due from Australia on Wendesday 25 September at 11.30 am Sydney time 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time In brief: WPAC near-cast for the August Monthly CPI Indicator is –0.2%mth/2.7%yr. For the September quarter CPI our near-cast is 0.3%qtr/2.9%yr. …. Our near-cast for the Trimmed Mean

Oksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, spoke with CNBC on Tuesday. Says a rate cut is not needed, citing: historically low unemploymenta normal rate environment that markets are no longer used to current 4.3% unemployment rate is “certainly well within” the Fed’s 5% target, and that any recent

NZD/USD not showing much response. Currently up a few wee tics around 0.6189. The data focus for the week is Q2 GDP due Thursday local NZ time. The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from

There are days when you REALLY need to know the roadmap technically. For me, knowing the roadmap daily is important. The roadmap tells you the targets. The roadmap tells you the risk. The roadmap keeps you in trend moves. The roadmap prevents you from riding a trend the wrong way. Today, the FOMC rate decision

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rebounded from the lows as the buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason which could drive oil prices higher

US housing starts are due at the bottom of the hour and forecast to rebound to 1.310m after falling to a post-pandemic low last month. The long-term chart highlights the problem: US housing starts are significantly lower than they were in 1980 despite a 47% increase in US population. The housing crash led to a

What a day this is turning out to be. The implied odds of a 50 bps were almost 70% yesterday but have slipped back to 55% in a steady grind. The market just doesn’t know what’s coming but there is clearly some anxiety today about under-delivering. That’s led to a dollar rally and a selloff

No one cared about Bullard when he was at the Fed and no one cares about him now. He says the Fed couldn’t defend 50 bps. “It seems to me the Fed will coalesce around three 25 basis point cuts this year and keep a deeper cut in their pocket,” he said. This article was

Prior was 1.238m (revised to 1.237m)Starts +9.6% vs -6.8% priorBuilding permits 1.475mM vs 1.396M expectedPermits +4.9% vs -4.0% prior Starts hit a post-pandemic low last month but rebounded nicely here. They’re still far too low for population growth but rate This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices are little changed to start the trading day. Of course, the FOMC rate decision will be key at 2 PM ET where the Fed is expected to cut by 50 basis points but the decision can go either way. What the Fed chair says, what the Dot plot and the projections for

USD/JPY has extended to the highs of the day, up 154 pips to 142.15. It’s been a strong reversal after the pair touched a 2024 low of 139.59 yesterday. I’m kicking myself a bit because the doji reversal yesterday was a sign of a turn and with the Fed coming up, there was some incentive

Sector Overview The current US stock market snapshot reveals a blend of vibrant highs and subdued lows across various sectors. One standout is the automotive sector, spearheaded by Tesla (TSLA), which boasts an impressive gain of 1.44%. In contrast, the healthcare sector appears sluggish, with companies like UnitedHealth (UNH) facing a decline of 0.84%. On

A miss for the data – but do note this is a choppy data series. — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Former Fed Mester on CNBC says” 25 or 50 bp in cuts is really a close call. Good case for series of 25 basis points cutsThe Fed is starting a series of cuts to bring restrictiveness back downIt is time to start a new phase of bringing rates lowerThe Fed will stay on the job

That is down from ~37% previously coming into today. That means traders are seeing some ~74% odds of the BOE keeping rates unchanged tomorrow. And that is pretty much the consensus expectation in any case. From earlier: UK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expected This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the day: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX flatFrancis CAC -0.5%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.7%Spain’s Ibex -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.4% There was a nice run-up into the Fed decision but there is some angst ahead of today’s announcement in many markets. That’s usually a good thing as the Fed often delivers dovish surprises (though the bar for

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers: Sees ongoing work to do on inflationCore measures of CPI should decline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% No changes to the initial estimates for the August readings. It just reaffirms the slow path of the disinflation process in recent months, keeping the ECB on their toes. The central bank has said that they will pause rate cuts in October, while gauging the anticipated

Repositioning looks to be the theme in global markets today. Treasury yields are rising, which indicates worry about the Fed cutting 25 bps instead of 50 bps. However the US dollar is weakening, which indicates the opposite. It all points to more of a position squaring trade. On top of that, today’s UK core CPI

Asia-Pacific (APAC)’s online trading and fintech industry elites congregated at the iconic Centara Grand & Bangkok Convention Centre at Central World in Bangkok on 17 September, to honour the most innovative and truly the best Brokers and Technology Providers in an official ceremony organised by Ultimate Fintech. The UF AWARDS APAC Ceremony marked the conclusion

FBS, a leading global broker, presents an overview of financial market trends in the context of the 2024 US presidential elections. FBS financial market analysts particularly underscore the rising investment potential of Bitcoin in the context of Harris-Trump uncertainty. FBS analysts highlight that financial markets are experiencing turbulent times and investors are looking for safe-haven

Every forex broker must grapple with brand development, while maintaining a level of quality and service that sets it apart from competitors. Of course, countless strategies exist to achieve this goal, however the best way to showcase one’s brand is securing the Finance Magnates Annual Awards (FMAA). After much anticipation surrounding the nominations, voting is

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some more positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July. Despite that, the market is still pricing a 63% probability for a 50 bps cut at today’s decision.

The major indices are closing with mixed but modest changes. The S&P did trade to a new record intraday high level, above 5669,. but stalled just above that level at 5670.81. The buyers turned to sellers. After trading negative into the last hour of trading, buying at the close pushed the index higher. The index

Fundamental Overview Copper has been on a sustained downtrend since reaching its peak in May. A lot of the weakness has been attributed to the struggling economic recovery in China. Copper is sensitive to the manufacturing cycle, and after a pickup in the first half of the year, we’ve been seeing a notable pullback as

The AUDUSD has been stepping higher over the last five or so trading days and in the process has used a series of key moving averages that have increased the bullish bias and provided the roadmap for the move to the upside. 5 days ago, the price based against the 200-day moving average and moved

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Cable nudges up to 1.3200 after sticky UK inflation dataUK inflation data bolsters odds of BOE keeping bank rate unchanged tomorrowWhat are the main events for today?There will be disappointment one way or another come the end of todayECB’s Villeroy says likely to continue with rate cutsUK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expectedEurozone

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The Fed has a very, very big decision to make today. A rate cut is all but confirmed but the major question is by how much? They’ve been suggesting a likelihood of moving by 25 bps since Jackson Hole but market players aren’t listening all too intently.

Prior +1.4%Market index 266.8 vs 233.7 priorPurchase index 146.1 vs 138.6 priorRefinance index 941.4 vs 757.8 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.15% vs 6.29% prior A further drop in the average rate of the most popular US home loan sparked a big jump in refinancing activity in the past week. And that led to the surge in

The USDJPY is ticking above the 200-hour MA at 141.988. The next target comes in at 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high. That level comes in at 142.485. Move above that, and the door opens for a move toward 143.38 to 143.67 where the 50% is found. , This article was

A JP Morgan strategist says a Federal Reserve rate cut is not neededAustralia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”FOMC forecasts from 28 bank analysts. Forecasts for today’s cut, dot plots, 2024 and 2025People’s Bank of China will be setting interest rates this week and nextAustralian August Monthly CPI

A lot of Hezballah pagers blew up yesterday but what will it do to the oil market? Some people thought oil might surge but the chart and price action does not care about what we think. Here is oil technical analysis I see but please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.2% European equities will have to fend for themselves today, after the gains from yesterday were followed up by a more tepid session in US trading. The S&P 500 and Dow both closed flat while US futures today are also not hinting at much thus far. It’s all about

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +3.6% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.3% Coming into today, traders had been pricing in ~63% odds of the BOE keeping the bank rate unchanged tomorrow. And the inflation numbers here pretty much solidifies the notion that they will keep rates unchanged in September. That especially since services inflation ticked back higher from

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A couple of details from the report for September: Private consumption shows movements of picking up recentlyBusiness investment shows movements of picking upIndustrial production shows movements of picking upThe employment situation shows movements of improvementExports are almost flatConsumer prices have been rising moderately This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, Wednesday, September 18, 2024. at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time Earlier: Most analysts expect a 25bp interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve todayA 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut coming today? History says ‘No’. – Now, check this out. This is amazing work, collating comprehensive forecasts

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, Wednesday, September 18, 2024. at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time El Erain with the tweet suggesting pricing for the Fed cuts are too extreme. Earlier: Most analysts expect a 25bp interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve todayA 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut coming today? History

RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Jones is speaking at 9.20am Melbourne time: 2320 GMT1920 US Eastern time He is speaking at a Fintech event. I don’t expect much, if anything, on his views on the economy or monetary policy, but a heads up on the off chance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

A preview of the August CPI data due from Australia on September 25 from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. We expect the monthly CPI indicator to show inflation eased to 2.7%/yr in August, within the RBA’s headline inflation target. A large 16% /mth fall in electricity prices is the key expected driver. But disinflation in other

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon was speaking at a conference on Tuesday. I didn’t hear a specific 25 or 50 from him, but he did say that the cut is “not going to be earth-shattering.” I guess that’s a tip for 25? Although 50 ain’t gonna shatter the earth either come to think of it. More

The pair was trading around 1.3160 prior to the UK CPI report here. But it is trading to fresh session highs of 1.3205 currently. Looking at the near-term chart above, it’s still not indicative of much. Buyers are in near-term control but there is some daily resistance around 1.3200 with the August high at 1.3266

The only notable event in the European session was the UK CPI report which came out basically in line with expectations across the board, although the Core Y/Y figure was a touch higher than forecasts. We will also have the Eurozone CPI, but given that it’s the Final reading, the market won’t care about it.

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are also only up slightly around 0.1%, so it’s really not indicative of much. In FX, the pound is up slightly after the UK CPI report earlier here. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping thereabouts at 141.70 since Asia trading mostly

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.5 mn barrelsDistillates +0.6 mn bblsGasoline +0.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

But the key focus in markets today is of course the FOMC meeting decision. Will it be a 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut? That is the question. As things stand, traders are still pricing in ~65% odds of a 50 bps rate cut for today. And therein lies the balance of risks ahead

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July. The data put some pressure on gold and we might see some profit-taking given that it’s unlikely that the

The US has been slowly refilling the strategic petroleum reserve but will look to accelerate that with a purchase of 6 million barrels, according to a Reuters report. The administration will announce the solicitation as soon as tomorrow, according to the report and it will be for delivery in early 2025. In 2022, the US

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Israeli military officials via various Hebrew news channels stating full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah appears imminent. That shouldn’t surprise anyone as the pager explosions were basically a declaration of war by Israel on Lebanon/Hezbollah. The thing is, I wonder if Hezbollah is so crippled that it’s not ready to fight and/or if Israel is

It’s all about the Fed today, and there isn’t anything too significant on the option expiries board to really influence price action in the meantime. There is a decent sized one for USD/JPY at 141.00 but we might not really revisit that level until we get to the FOMC meeting later. The pair is down

Japan trade data for August 2024 … dreadful misses for both exports and imports. The ‘adjusted’ trade balance (not shown in the screen shot above) is -0.6tln yen expected -0.96tlnprior -0.76tln yen Exports to: China +5.2% y/ythe EU -8.1% y/ythe US -0.7% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A snippet via Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management: “Since the late 1980s…25-basis-point cuts have become the norm, and 50 basis points have been the exception.” Only two rate-cutting cycles have begun with cuts greater than 25 basis points: January 2001, amid the dot-com bubble, and September 2007 during the sub-prime mortgage

There is plenty top come on the data agenda but none of it is higher-tier. Note that mainland Chinese markets reopen today after holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Hong Kong is closed today. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in

The Bank of Japan meet this week, announcement due on Friday September 20. The Bank is not expected to hike rates again: Bank of Japan meeting this week – preview (no rate change expected) Ueda and his colleagues will be eyeing the data showing slowing export growth: Japan August exports +5.6% y/y (expected +10.0%) &

The Japanese Coast Guard give an alert to North Korea firing what could be a ballistic missile. In the olden days news like this would prompt rapid flows into USD and JPY. Now it’s pretty much ignored. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Westpac Leading Index for August 2024 -0.05% m/m prior –0.03% Westpac note, in summary: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, declined from +0.04% in July to -0.27% in August. Commodity price

Not so long ago, Germany was considered the engine of the EU economy. When things went wrong for other countries in the bloc, there was always the hope that Berlin would come to the rescue. But now, it seems that the safety net is slowly deflating: the country’s industrial production has fallen below 2017 levels,