Given the state of play and the “leaks” since last week, it looks like a BOJ rate hike is imminent. The question is, how are they going to follow that up ahead of the spring wage negotiations in March? As things stand, traders are pricing in ~94% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for […]

We need to move to a neutral stance This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

6:50 PM JPY: Trade balance. Forecast: -0.51T, Previous -0.38T 6:00am GBP: CBI Industrial Order Expectations, Forecast: -35, Previous: -40 8:30am CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m, Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.1% 8:30am CAD: Retail Sales m/m, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.6% 8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims, Forecast: 221K, Previous: 217K 10:00am EUR: Consumer Confidence, Forecast: -14, Previous: -15 11:00am

Prior was 4.686% Bid to cover at 2.75 vs 2.50 prior This is a strong auction on part of the curve that’s tough to predict. Because of that, I wouldn’t necessarily extrapolate it to 10s or 30s but it’s certainly better than the alternative. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I posted this earlier: Has the US dollar topped, or is it just resting? Battle of the trend lines. I you are interested … The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. The index was established in 1973 with a base

South Korean Q4 2024 economic growth has come in weaker than expected The lacklustre GDP numbers are in that post. The Wall Street Journal (gated) has followed up with a summary. High(low)lights: weak consumer spending weak business spending political turmoil … martial-law attempt sluggish domestic demand private consumption weakened construction investment remained in contraction exports

The price of crude oil has settled at $75.44. That is down -$0.39 or -0.51% on the day. The price is now down -6.60% from the high on January 15 at $80.73. The low price today reached $75.31. The high was at $76.42. Looking at the daily chart below, the price is approaching the 200

Eurostoxx flat Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are a touch softer though but that follows from the solid gains yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% as tech shares are the laggards on the day. Nasdaq futures are down 0.4% currently.

Japanese inflation data is due at 2330 GMT (1830 US Eastern time) on Thursday, January 23, 2025 (which is Friday morning, Japan time). Japan experienced a more or less steady increase in consumer prices over H2 of 2024, with a notable uptick in November. July 2024: The core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, increased

The announcement is here from earlier: China to boost long-term funds for equity markets Press conference now. The head of China’s securities regulator (Chairman of the CSRC Wu Qing) says there will be at least hundreds of billions of yuan in new long-term capital for A-shares every year from state-owned insurance companies. A pilot scheme

Today we don’t have much on the agenda as the only highlights are the US Jobless Claims and the Canadian Retail Sales. In the FX market, the price action is mostly rangebound as we await new catalysts. As always, keep an eye on Trump as he’s been the main driver of price swings this week.

Bank of Japan meet on Friday – will it be the fifth rate hike in 20 years? Ahead of the Bank of Japan decision on Friday are CPI data for December 2024 It appears NASDAQ’s Twitter (X) account was hacked and used to promote memecoin ‘STONKS’ The BOJ meet today and tomorrow and is unlikely

Trump won’t be there himself but he will be engaging with world leaders at the forum via a video dialogue/conference. The event itself is slated for 1600 GMT but the topics that he will be discussing aren’t made clear. As such, one can really expect everything and anything to potentially come up. Even though he’s

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This follows from the gains yesterday but the more tentative mood today is also reflected in US futures. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% now as the more optimistic mood settles down. It’s looking to be a quiet one in Europe today, so there might not be

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been keeping the bid since last week as the softer than expected US inflation data gave the market a boost. We haven’t got any key economic report since then and no comment from Fed speakers given that they are in the blackout period. The main driver of the price

1030 GMT / 0530 US Eastern time will bring a speech from Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva. As a governor of member back he is also a Governing Council member at the ECB. There was a cascade of ECB speakers on Wednesday: ECB’s Lagarde: No US tariff is what I expected ECB’s Lagarde:

S&P cannot close at a new high. New intraday high reached. What economic releases and events will highlight trading in the new trading day The CME will launch Ripple and Solana futures Gary Cohn says Trump doesn’t believe that tariffs will cause higher prices Crude oil settles at $75.44. Tests 200 day MA at session

A bit of a lower tier data day today. Japanese trade data for December 2024 is due but I suspect it won’t move the JPY needle too much. The Bank of Japan begin their two-day meeting today. The statement is due tomorrow, Friday Japan time, and a rate hike is widely expected. I mentioned yesterday

The dollar eased off gains early yesterday only to claw some of that back late on in US trading. The move was helped by a slight bounce in Treasury yields, though stocks were upbeat as usual. Overall, this puts EUR/USD back close to 1.0400 and GBP/USD snapping its recent bounce back towards 1.2300. Meanwhile, USD/JPY

China has unveiled a major initiative to channel hundreds of billions of yuan annually from state-owned insurers into equities, marking the latest effort by authorities to stabilize and support the country’s stock markets. Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), announced that in the first half of 2025, insurers will be required

The preliminary reading for 2024 Q4 GDP from South Korea is not as strong as was expected. +0.1% q/q expected +0.2%, prior +0.1% +1.2% y/y is a big tumble from Q3 expected +1.4%, prior +1.5% The Bank of Korea estimates that GDP growth over 2024 as a whole will be +2% y/y. This article was

The market is fully priced for a 25 bps rate cut next week with another cut nearly fully priced in for March. Holzmann is a hawk, so these comments aren’t a surprise, but they’re not market moving. He said inflation gauges are still very strong and a danger of cutting rates and then having to

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tariff measures are not good for China, US, and the rest of the world China willing to work with US to promote stable and healthy development of economic, trade ties They’re commenting in response to Trump’s tariff threats and the remarks are what you would expect mostly. No real tit-for-tat response yet until the tariffs

Prior 94 Manufacturing confidence Prior 97 Services confidence Prior 96 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ signals January rate hike amid strong wage growth and yen speculation. That would seem to be a decent one-sentence summary of what’s to come from the Bank of Japan statement due on Friday, January 24, 2025 Scouring around various notes on what to expect from the BoJ and the consensus that has emerged is

China has introduced several measures to stabilize its stock markets, including allowing pension funds to increase investments in domestic equities. Chinese state carried the report ICYMI. In summary: A directive from the central government, released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), emphasizes efforts to bolster market confidence. Key officials, including CSRC Chairman Wu Qing,

1000 GMT / 0500 US Eastern time – Bank of England Financial Policy Committee External Member Carolyn Wilkins will give speech at Fitch Ratings ‘Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan’ Note: The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) was established in 2013 to improve financial stability after the financial crisis leads

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Gary Cohn was a moderating influence in Trump’s first term and was his chief economic advisor. He’s no longer working with Trump but he can speak to the President’s thinking around tariffs as they surely discussed them many times. “I think he fundamentally understands, he just doesn’t believe, and he can believe this — I

A report on Bloomberg TV claimed that car maker Stellantis will move 1,500 jobs from Canada to the US Stellantis in both Canada and the US have said this is not correct. *** Careful with this one, who knows where the truth lies. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the video above, I take a look at Oracle the day after running higher on fundamental news of a joint venture took the price above the 100 day MA and the 200 hour MA. Both breaks to the upside were bullish technically. Those levels also helped to define risk for traders looking for more

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures: January 22-23, 2025 – Bitcoin Price Prediction and Analysis This TradeCompass provides a comprehensive roadmap for Bitcoin Futures trading, covering both bullish and bearish setups for January 22 and January 23, 2025. Designed for traders seeking disciplined strategies and actionable insights, it includes critical price levels, profit-taking targets, and explanations of

Here is the summary of reports coming out: Nasdaq’s official X (formerly Twitter) account was hacked and used to promote a fraudulent memecoin called STONKS. The hacker falsely linked a fake X account as a Nasdaq affiliate and retweeted a post about the token, which had been created the same day. The misleading post has

Via social media reports: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.2 mn barrels Distillates no change mn bbls Gasoline +2.3 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning

Chinese authorities on pumping money into stocks from pension funds etc, ICYMI: China to boost long-term funds for equity markets Chinese official says 100s of bns of yuan to flow into shares every year from pensions China official says insurance firms still have room to increase their market investment Equities in China (mainland and Hong

The major US stock indices closed higher on the day. The broader indices are up for the 3rd day in a row. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 130.92 points or 0.30% at 44156.73. S&P index rose 37.13 points or 0.61% at 6086.3 index needs to close7. The record high close is

New Zealand will loosen foreign investment regulations to attract international capital, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced on Thursday (New Zealand time). The move is part of his government’s strategy to stimulate economic growth and create jobs amid a weakened economy. The country slipped into recession in the third quarter of 2024, with economic activity contracting

Comments are via J.P. Morgan Asset Management. While the managers remain bullish, and indeed are ‘overweight’, on stocks they say Number one risk heading into 2025 valuations JPM feels very strongly in the need for earnings to back up valuations JPM says they are not saying we’re underweight stocks because valuations are too expensive But

Aluminum giant Alcoa is a good barometer for the industrial economy and global growth. The company will report today after the bell and I will highlight any comments about the health of the world economy. Overall, it’s a quieter day of reporting than yesterday, which featured Netflix and a 10% gain in those shares. Other

Saudi Crown Prince Discusses Trade Expansion with President Trump Saudi Arabia Aims to Boost U.S. Investments by $600 Billion Crown Prince Sees Trump-Era Reforms Driving Economic Growth Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump via phone, expressing the Kingdom’s intention to significantly increase its investments and trade relations with the

The steep up trend line for the USD appears to have been broken. The caveat, for me, is the approach to that horizontal one: I am sure readers of ForexLive can do better than me, let me know in the comments! FWIW I am suspecting that while the steep uptrend is over, it’ll faf around

Justin had the news item overnight: ECB’s Nagel says confident inflation will return to 2% target by mid-year The ECB is widely expected to cut rates at its meeting next week: 7 days, 4 major central bank decisions (BoJ, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BoC) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG warns that a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports by the US could push USD/CAD into a 1.50-1.60 range. While markets remain optimistic that negotiations will dilute or avert the tariff threat, escalation risks loom as the 1st February deadline approaches. Key Points: Recent USD/CAD Moves: USD/CAD hit a high of 1.4516, breaking 1.4500

The S&P index is trading at 6093.40 up 44.13 points or 0.73%. At current levels, it would be high enough for a new record close. The old record close is at 6090.27. Today the price did move above its intraday record level at 6099.97. The high price today was just above that level at 6100.81.

There is some head-scratching about yesterday’s $500 billion investment in data centers that was touted at the White House. The big question is: whose money is it? The announcement was led by Softbank’s Masayoshi Son and that firm only has $134 billion under management. He was flanked by Oracle, which has a market cap of

One year ago today, Asia Genesis Asset Management announced it was shutting down. The decision came after a ‘disastrous’ January of trading that followed several tough months and destroyed the confidence of CIO Chua Soon Hock. Every trader has gone through struggles and the feeling of losing his edge. This is a raw example of

It was a strong start for the UK FTSE 100 but it gave back the gains and then finished lower, breaking a five-day winning streak. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.4% German DAX +1.0% Francis CAC +0.9% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.1% Spain’s IBEX -0.5% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6% This article was written by Adam Button

The dollar is marginally higher on the day but the changes are relatively light overall. The euro is down slightly as Trump threatens tariffs but on the week itself, the single currency is holding up rather nicely. A case of Trump’s bark being more scary than his bite at the moment? That is one way

USD/JPY is at the highest levels of the day and testing the top of the recent range. The pair is up 85 pips to 156.34. The high last week was 156.58 and that will be in focus through the Bank of Japan decision, which is coming up in Tokyo trade. The market is 88% priced

High levels of uncertainty in global macrofinancial environment calls for prudence in monetary policy decisions It’s hard to tell which way to take this. He’s obviously talking about tariffs and whatnot but does prudence mean using your ammo or saving it? In any case, the market is pretty much fully priced for 25 bps at

The S&P index moved to a high today of 6092.82. That move took the price of the index above the highest closing level at 6090.27. The all-time high price was not breached at 6099.98. Technically speaking the price has gapped on the opening for the 3rd consecutive day. On Friday, the price gapped and broke

The USDCAD stretched higher and in doing so, reached the 100/200 hour MA target at 1.4385 to 1.43918 (see earlier video HERE). Sellers leaned at the risk-defining level on the first test, and the price has backed off. If the buyers are to take more control, getting and staying above those MAs is needed to

That’s the smart approach It doesn’t mean to say it won’t happen but will be more selective Not surprised by Trump’s tariff threats Europe must be prepared and anticipate what will happen in order to respond Well, she’s not the only one to believe that Trump’s bark will be worse than his bite. Markets are

Morgan Stanley anticipates the Fed will hold rates steady at the January meeting while upgrading its assessment of the labor market. Chair Powell is expected to emphasize data dependence and policy uncertainty, leaving the door open for a potential rate cut in March. Key Points: Labor Market Upgrade: The Fed is likely to revise its

It is too early to tell but we could expect inflationary effects from new US policies There could be decoupling between ECB and Fed on rates, but it is a non-issue ECB policymakers are out in droves today and they have been consistent with their remarks. All of it points to rate cuts in January

Trump announces AI project – says will help out through emergency declarations. Oracle Chairman Ellison at the announcement: data centers are under construction in texas expansion to other locations as well *** More breaking on AI here: China’s DeepSeek may have just upended the economics of AI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

In the kickstart video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is trading higher on the day, but respecting a key technical target on the topside between 1.0448 and 1.0461.That is tough resistance on the topside that needs to be broken to

Headlines: Dollar pares gains on the day in European morning trade Trump making sure that Wall Street stays more upbeat in general ECB’s Lagarde: No US tariff is what I expected ECB’s Lagarde: We’re not overly concerned about export of inflation to Europe ECB’s Knot sees little obstacle to another rate cut next week ECB’s

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve also got lots of whipsaws in the last couple of

Trump posted about Russia just now and said: I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin – and this despite the Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost

Sector overview Today’s US stock market heatmap paints a vibrant picture of the technology sector, which is experiencing a significant upswing. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) is soaring with a remarkable increase of 10.05%, making it one of the day’s standout performers. This surge reflects strong investor confidence, possibly due to recent advancements or earnings surprises. Nvidia

The AUDUSD has exhibited heightened volatility during the US election period. Despite the fluctuations, buyers have consistently stepped in near the rising 100-hour moving average, maintaining their presence in the market. On the flip side, recent highs from Monday and Tuesday encountered resistance from sellers near the 38.2% retracement level at 0.62902 and a swing

Official data for Q4 CPI from New Zealand shows inflation firmly in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1 to 3% band. The RBNZ has a focus on keeping inflation around the 2% midpoint over the medium term. This target is set in the Remit for Monetary Policy, agreed upon between the RBNZ and the

TradeCompass: DAX Futures Analysis and Price Prediction Current Price OverviewDAX futures are trading at 21,377, positioned just above critical levels that dictate today’s price action: Point of Control (POC): The day’s primary volume concentration. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects market equilibrium. Value Area Low (VAL): The lower boundary of the fair value range. The

US stocks are set for another gain today with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% on strong earnings from Netflix and United Airlines along with the big datacenter announcement boosting AI trades. But there was a warning from Interactive Brokers today as they said: “Today is the highest level of margin we’ve ever had in our

Chinese stocks were lower today by around 1% after Trump floated a 10% tariffs based on drug exports. I tend to think of the drug/immigration line as a cover for something else because it opens up certain sanctions avenues that moaning about a trade deficit wouldn’t. In any case, the temperature around a China trade

The NZDUSD has not been without it’s volatility since the US inauguration on Monday. However, the highs reached on Monday, and Tuesday and again today, stalled near the earlier January highs and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end of November high. That “ceiling” has gotten stronger. Buyers would need to get

Deutche Bank believes that trade war risks are higher than markets are pricing and is out with a note saying the loonie is “out of the most under-priced” currencies around trade war risks. Deutche Bank that Trump does have the legal authority to impose 25% tariffs but they expect that Canada would retaliate with tariffs

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will emphasize strong wage growth surpassing inflation as a key element of his economic revival strategy in an upcoming policy speech to parliament, according to government sources. Ishiba plans to challenge Japan’s historically low wage growth expectations and encourage businesses to continue the pay raise momentum seen last year. His

The USDCAD has experienced significant volatility during the election period. Yesterday, the pair reached a new high of 1.4514, the highest level since 2020, while the previous day saw a new low near 1.42899, the lowest since mid-December. These moves briefly broke out of the “Red Box” range, which has defined trading between 1.42899 and

Inflation is well inside our target range and over our forecast cycle Not uncomfortable with inflation at the moment But cannot exclude possibility of negative interest rates If we have to do it, we will Swiss franc is traditionally treated as a safe haven Trade conflicts are not beneficial for Switzerland Ready to intervene in

Prior was +0.3% This is a composite index of data already released so it’s not a market mover but it’s a decent broad view of the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.6% PPI y/y +4.1% vs +2.2% prior Raw materials price index +1.3% m/m vs -0.5% expected Raw materials price index +9.1% m/m vs +2.0% expected The headline here is deceptive as there are some big year-over-year declines. Much of that is base effects with last December’s reading of -1.6% m/m rolling off but

Infor via Reuters, Trump: we are talking about a 10% tariff on China b/c they sell fentanyl February 1 date for tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Netflix will report their earnings after the close. Expectations are for: EPS $4.20 per share revenues $10.11 billion The company is expected to add 9 million subscribers Shares of Netflix are trading at up $13 or 1.51% at $871 United AIrlines EPS $3.02 Revenues $14.4B Shares of United are trading near record levels at $110.22.

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The GBP/USD moved lower during the Asian and European sessions but found support near the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs). Sellers turned into buyers at this critical area, and the pair began to rotate back to the upside. The upward momentum has now pushed the price toward the 50% retracement level of the

Trump: open to Elon Musk buying TikTok Trump says he met with TikTok owners is thinking of saying to someone to buy TikTok and give half to the United States This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data is encouraging, confirms that we’ll return to target Hopes to see recovery in economy, then we’ll take it from there There is new downside risk from trade policy on growth, impact on inflation not so clear But pretty comfortable with market expectations for the next two meetings But if recovery continues, not too convinced

The financial world is consistently evolving in a manner that reflects innovation-driven progress. Innovations are adopted to enhance operational streamlining, increase accessibility, and maximize returns for participants. Within this context, tokenization emerges as a transformative mechanism with the potential to significantly alter the structure and operation of index and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Understanding tokenization’s principles,

UBS CEO Ermotti spoke with CNBC on Tuesday, saying he sees rates not coming down as quickly as the market is expecting: “inflation is much more sticky than we have been saying,” “we need to see also how tariffs will play a role in inflation. Tariffs will probably not really help inflation to come down.

CBS is reporting that Pres. Trump is settling out billions of dollars in a private sector investment focused on building AI infrastructure. THe president will the speaking to it at 4 PM ET. OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle are planning a joint ventrue called Stargate Oracle shares are trading up $3.50 or 5.69% on the news

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q4 2024 CPI slightly higher than expected From the Reserve Bank of New Zealand now, its model falling well below Q3 and nearly to the top of its 3% band: The CPI result earlier supported expectations for another 50bp rate cut from the

He had previously say that the ECB should continue with “a series of rate cuts” last week. So, the remark above is consistent with that. The current deposit rate is 3.00%, so he is pretty much touting four more 25 bps rate cuts essentially. As for market pricing, traders are seeing ~96 bps of rate

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve also got lots of whipsaws in the last couple of

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.7% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE +0.1% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% Even with Lagarde saying she doesn’t expect Trump’s tariffs to be that bad, the ECB is still primed to cut rates in January and March to begin with. Right on. US futures are also on the

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

Monetary policy will stop being restrictive in the near future Again, all of the commentary today has been to sell the story of rate cuts coming in January and March. So, this is consistent with that theme. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0900/0400 ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau to speak on Davos panel about interest rates 1030/0530 ECB policymaker Klaas Knot speaks in Davos 1515/1015 Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde in Stakeholder Dialogue ‘Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe’s Potential’ during World

TradeCompass for Nasdaq Futures – January 22, 2025 Current Price of Nasdaq Futures: Approximately 21,843 Key Thresholds Within Today’s Nasdaq Futures Analysis Bullish above 21,880 Bearish below 21,827 Nasdaq Futures Bearish Scenario Why 21,827?Crossing below 21,827 signals bearish momentum, as the price moves beneath key intraday support levels, potentially triggering selling pressure. Nasdaq Bearish Targets:

Prior +33.3% Market index 224.6 vs 224.4 prior Purchase index 163.0 vs 162.0 prior Refinance index 558.8 vs 575.6 prior 30-year mortgage rate 7.02% vs 7.09% prior After the rebound in activity in the previous reporting week following the holiday period, mortgage applications were little changed in the past week. It comes as purchases activity

● The U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly since late September, primarily due to widening interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other major economies. ● The U.S. economy’s resilience, strong labour market, and consumer spending contribute to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut rates as aggressively as other central banks in 2025.

CNBC conducted the poll, the main points: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate this week by 25 basis points. A hike will put the BOJ’s key rate at 0.5%, its highest level since 2008. Public comments by Governor Kazuo Ueda and a speech by the Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino

TradeCompass for Dow Jones Futures – January 22, 2025 At the time of this analysis, Dow Jones Futures (YM) are trading at 44,239, which places the market below the key bearish threshold of 44,243. This supports a bearish outlook for the day. Below is a detailed Dow Jones Futures analysis and price prediction outlining key

US futures are sitting higher on the day after the stronger gains yesterday. One of the main spectacles of Trump’s inauguration was the lineup of the front row seats and it was clear what his priorities were. This picture says a lot without saying much at all. S&P 500 futures are up another 0.3% today

It’s not the first time this week and it sure looks like traders are starting to come around to the idea that Trump’s bark is going to be worse than his bite, at least when it comes to tariffs. His earlier threat against the EU briefly sent EUR/USD lower to just under 1.0400 but the

Inflation data is due from New Zealand today, for Q4 2024. Its expected to have dribbled just a touch lower, which should keep the Reserve Bank of New Zealand easing cycle on track. If it surprises to the topside its likely to provide a tailwind for the kiwi $. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic

After a slow start, there has been steady buying in US equities today. That’s continued to session highs despite Treasury yields climbing off the lows. The S&P 500 is now up 0.8%. Apple continues to be a laggard as it declines 4.3% (and is near a session low) as Chinese demand for iPhones declines. It’s

Japan’s largest business lobby, Keidanren, and trade unions began their annual labor negotiations today, Wednesday. Expectations are for another round of significant wage increases. Japanese policymakers are particularly focused on whether these pay hikes will extend to smaller businesses. Major companies have already committed to substantial salary increases, strengthening the case for the Bank of

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Dogecoin and XRP, two of the most popular altcoins, have been bought over three days in large numbers. Now residing in the wallets of whale investors, it has been seen as a positive outcome for the pair. We discuss this in the article below. In just a few short days, around $2.5 billion in Dogecoin

Wall Street Journal (gated) on the US – Mexico – Canada (USMCA) trade deal: isn’t up for review until 2026, but Trump’s advisers want to open it up quickly President Trump is using the threat of imposing stiff tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico as soon as next week to pressure the two nations

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0400 level. That may very well keep price action stickier in the session ahead or at least keep any downside in the euro more limited amid the fresh tariffs threat from Trump. Then,

We’re confident inflation will be at target over the course of 2025 We’ll see if the early stages of this year will deliver a reduction in services inflation We don’t see ourselves as being behind the curve Euro exchange rate will be of interest, may have consequences Gradual moves in rates come to mind at

China’s will roll out a new round of growth initiatives for 10 key industries New Zealand inflation data today has pricing for an RBNZ 50bp rate cut at around 67% Poll shows 18 out of 19 economists expect a Bank of Japan rate hike on Friday Japanese Labor Talks Forecast Big Wage Hikes; BOJ Interest

Trade tensions between China and the US are inevitable. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang warning of the cost. To everyone. He was speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Remember when we could all pay out on the elites gathered in Davos each year? Then we see the inauguration and this lot: This

A 25 bps cut next week is a likely scenario. ECB needs to wait for hard data to confirm forecasts. Incoming information points towards converging to 2% inflation goal. It is unclear whether there will be inflation spillovers from US policy. To retain full optionality is more important than ever. This article was written by

TradeCompass for Euro Futures (6E) – January 22, 2025 At the time of this analysis, Euro Futures (6E) are trading at 1.04385, placing the market near the key bearish threshold of 1.04365. Below is a detailed Euro Futures analysis and price prediction for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Bearish Bias (Below 1.04365) If the price

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.2% Trump warned that the EU is going to be in for tariffs in saying that “they treat us very, very badly”. Adding that “you can’t get fairness unless you do that (tariffs)”. And that’s a striking remark that is going to reverberate

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures Analysis – January 22, 2025 Current Price of Bitcoin Futures: 106,200 Key Thresholds Within Today’s Bitcoin Futures Analysis Bullish above 106,840 Bearish below 105,450 Bitcoin Bullish Scenario Why 106,840?Crossing 106,840 signals bullish momentum in Bitcoin futures because: The price moves above yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH). It surpasses the VAH from

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve also got lots of whipsaws in the last couple of

I spoke with BNNBloomberg on Monday about the early takeaways of the Trump administration and his first executive orders. The news so far made me slightly more optimistic that we will get a repeat of Trump 1.0 and not some new President hell-bent on growth-destroying tariffs. BNN got my title wrong but I managed to

It’s going to be a boring day in terms of data releases as we don’t have anything on the calendar for today. The price action might be more rangebound after two days of volatility caused by Trump’s headlines (can’t get your guard down with him though). We got the news that Trump is considering a

The official inflation data for Q4 is published already: New Zealand Q4 2024 CPI slightly higher than expected Coming up later today (0200 GMT / 2100 US Eastern time) we’ll get the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s sectoral factor model of inflation, its preferred measure. The model is based on the idea that inflation in

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to push into new highs as the softer US inflation data last week led to a fall in Treasury yields and weakened the US Dollar. The latest rally was triggered by Trump’s threats of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It seems like the uncertainty around tariffs and potentially higher inflationary pressures

Imagine we’re back in 2017 and the iPhone X was just released. It was selling $999 and Apple was crushing sales and building a wide moat around its ecosystem. Now imagine, just days later, another company introduced a phone and platform that was equal in every way if not better and the price was just

Goldman Sachs on US politics: “President Trump’s Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected” “For now … a lower priority than we would have expected” GS do add though that on Canada and Mexico Trump’s words were more hawkish than anticipated. GS conclude that the chance of US universal tariff on

The USD jumped on this from Trump: Trump says European Union will be in for tariffs Which followed on from: Trump says talking about a 10% tariff on China Plenty of talk from Trump. EUR/USD update: The USD is higher against other FX also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index to 0.25% in December from 0.33% in November this measure indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future WPAC key points: Leading Index growth rate dips back to 0.25% but still slightly positive. Growth set

Rengo is Japan’s largest union. The head of the organisation says he agrees with the Bank of Japan that is wage hike momentum in Japan’s regions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CBS: Pres. Trump to announce private sector investment in AI infrasture China’s DeepSeek may have just upended the economics of AI Canada December CPI 1.8% y/y versus 1.9% expected Canada Teranet December house prices +0.8% m/m New Zealand GDT price index +1.4% BOJ moving towards rate hike at this week’s meeting – report Markets: Gold

This from Global Times late on Tuesday ICYMI. In summary: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced plans to introduce new growth initiatives for 10 key industries while expanding support for major industrial provinces and cities, officials stated on Tuesday. The targeted industries include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles,

Netflix been on both EPS and revenues EPS $4.27 versus expected $4.20 revenues $10.25 billion versus $10.11 billion estimate Paid net additions come In At 18.91 million much higher than the 9.6 million estimate revenue guidance for the quarter $10.42 billion versus $10.49 billion estimate Revenue guidance for the Year $43.5 billion – $44.5 billion

The major US stock indices started the week with solid gains. The Dow 30 rose by 1.24%. The Russell 2000 was the biggest gainer with a rise of 1.85%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow rose 537.98 points or 1.24% at 44025.81 S&P index rose 52.58 points or 0.88% at 6049.24. NASDAQ index

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

These Taiwanese islands are super-close to the mainland. Reports that the undersea cables linking the isl This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump threatens the EU with tariffs: EU treats us badly This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand CPI (Q/Q) Q4: 0.5% q/q is inline with the consensus expectation adl a little lower than Q3 expected 0.5%, prior 0.6% 2.2% y/y is a little higher than was expected and is unchanged from Q3 expected 2.1%, prior 2.2% Tradeable +0.3% q/q jumped above estimates and last quarter expected 0.1%, prior -0.2% Non-Tradeables

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Meta Platforms is advancing its wearable technology offerings, including Oakley-branded smart glasses designed for athletes. The company is also exploring AI-integrated smartwatches and camera-equipped earbuds. A premium smart glasses model, “Hypernova,” featuring a display and app functionality, is set to launch in 2025 at an estimated price of $1,000. Additionally, Meta is reviving its smartwatch

The President is announcing an AI infrastructure deal with Oracle part of the JV which includes OpenAI and Softbank. Shares of Orable surged on the deal and in the process made a move technically above the stocks 100 day MA at $170.48. The price also moved above the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The 200-hour

Eamonn highlighted this earlier in the week but here is some more detail on the latest Bank of America fund manager survey. Note that it’s based on opinions of positioning not self-reported positioning but it’s still a good barometer of how market participants are placed. Oftentimes trades flip once they get too crowded. This article

Summary of the video outlining the tech 📈 Swing Area Support and Buyer ConfidenceThe EUR/USD bounced off a critical swing area support, marked by previous highs and lows, signaling strong buyer interest. That area comes between 1.0332 to 1.0343. 📊 50% Retracement Area in FocusThe pair extended higher reached a 50% retracement of its recent

The 2nd week of the earning calendar continues with a mix of companies (the first week is traditionally financials). This week is highlighted by Netflix after the close today, P&G, J&J, Travelers, United and American Airline, Intuitive Surgical, Amex, and Verizon are a sampling of the mix. Below is the major earnings scheduled. After the

The dollar is slightly firmer to start the new day as it bounces back a little following Trump’s inauguration. His comments that “we’re thinking in terms of 25% on Mexico and Canada” on tariffs is causing a bit of a stir in the new day. But overall, the strong rally to start the year has

There are mixed indications in the market around the threat of tariffs. The US dollar jumped earlier in the day after Trump floated tariffs once again but the moves have slowly faded and the euro is now higher on the day. Even the loonie, which was singled out for tariffs is now down only modestly

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. Yesterday, the greenback weakened across the board following a WSJ report

MoF’s Mimura says won’t comment on FX levels MoF’s Mimura speaking, not mentioning FX issues USD/JPY drops back under 155.00 and to a fresh low for the day Trump’s Tik Tok threat to China – no deal could mean tariffs Trump orders suspension of new offshore wind power leasing Australian weekly consumer confidence survey drops

The USD is trending lower in the early U.S. session, and the USD/CHF is no exception. Technical factors are reinforcing this move, with sellers stepping in at the key 100-hour moving average (MA), located at 0.9112. The pair tested this level multiple times on the hourly chart but failed to break above it, prompting a

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.6% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% There was some relief yesterday as Trump’s first orders weren’t too focused on tariffs. Stocks cheered that on but the mood music has now quickly shifted after Trump delivered a fresh warning overnight to Canada and

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey was out earlier, doing a bit of a catch up. Comes in at 85.8 prior 87.1 inflation expectations 5.2% (prior 5%) ANZ comment: positive impact of the new year appears to be waning the series is still up 1.9 points from the end of December *** Below 100

Trump giving a bid to the USD after its huge slump since Sunday (US time): Trump speaking with media, says intends 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week “We’re thinking in terms of 25% on Mexico and Canada.” “I think February 1.” “I think we’ll do it Feb. 1. On each.” This article was

Prior y/y reading was +1.9% CPI m/m -0.4% versus -0.4% expected Prior m/m reading was 0.0% Core CPI m/m +0.3% versus 0.4% last month CPI median 2.4% versus 2.4% expected . Last month 2.6% CPI trim 2.5% versus 2.5% expected . Last month 2.7% CPI common 2.0% versus 2.0% last month CPI BOC core y/y

Tik Tok is still operating in the US pending getting agreement. Trump: signed an executive action that delays enforcement of the TikTok ban for 75 days the delay will help the Trump administration attempt to “determine the appropriate course forward in an orderly way that protects national security while avoiding an abrupt shutdown of a

Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent days as the market reacts to the new Trump administration. On Monday, Bitcoin surged to its highest level ever, breaking above the December high of $108,364 and setting a new record at $109,356. However, the rally was short-lived, with prices retreating just as quickly. Buyers have since stepped

The AUD/USD, like many other currency pairs over the past 24 hours, has experienced significant volatility in response to the transition of power in the U.S. under Trump. Yesterday, the pair dipped to test the 100-hour moving average (MA), briefly breaking below it before quickly rebounding. A similar pattern emerged today with two separate breaks

Sector Overview The US stock market is displaying a predominantly positive sentiment today, with several key sectors witnessing noteworthy movements. The technology sector is at the forefront of today’s rally, highlighted by impressive gains in the communications services and semiconductor segments. 📈 Technology and Semiconductors: The technology sector is experiencing a surge, driven by standout

Europe held firm once again as Trump’s tariff talk focuses elsewhere. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.4% German DAX +0.2% Francis CAC +0.5% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.4% Spain’s IBEX -0.2% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3% US stock markets are also at the highs of the day with the S&P 500 up 0.6%. This article was written

The USD/CAD is heavily influenced by headline news stemming from the new Trump presidency. Yesterday, the pair initially moved lower, tracking the USD’s response to the inauguration address. However, the market reacted sharply as comments and executive orders (EOs) began to surface, particularly the suggestion of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting February 1.

MUFG notes that Trump’s inauguration speech, with a heavier focus on immigration than trade, has reduced immediate risks for EUR/USD to drop below parity in Q1. However, trade-related uncertainties persist, particularly around potential tariff actions later this year. Key Points: Trade Policy Focus and Market Expectations: Trump’s speech emphasized immigration over immediate trade measures, dampening

There is a plausible consensus that we will act at each meeting Among major central banks, ECB has the simplest course Our view on inflation is quite assured Staying vigilant but not worried about inflation Progress towards victory against inflation is on track If we are decisive about the pace of rate cuts, we don’t

Prior was -1.4% Whole milk powder +5.0% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

DAX Futures Analysis: Key Levels and Price Prediction DAX Futures OverviewThe DAX futures market is trading at 21,091, slightly down by 0.15% compared to yesterday’s close. The market sentiment appears neutral to indecisive, as reflected in the AI sentiment score of +1, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. This analysis provides critical levels for

The BOJ decision is on Jan 24 and the market is pricing in about an 85% chance of a hike so this report isn’t a surprise. USD/JPY is modestly lower and at the lows of the day at 155.42. Update: This report was out much earlier today. This article was written by Adam Button at

Trump’s proposed tax, tariff, and immigration policies are basically inflationary Trump administration might revise those policies at some point if inflation accelerates Don’t think there’s any need to change G7 commitment on currencies Closely monitoring FX moves on a daily basis Volatile FX moves are not desirable Just some token remarks there by Mimura. Falling

Teranet HPI shows sixth straight monthly gain on seasonally-adjusted basis Prior was +0.7% Non-seasonally adjusted -0.1% m/m Prices up 3.6% y/y vs 2.4% prior Prices just 0.3% below April 2022 peak Strong showing in Western Canada with Edmonton leading at +1.6% m/m Toronto: +0.8% m/m, Vancouver +0.6% m/m There are signs here that pent-up demand

There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are for EUR/USD, layered in between the 1.0350 to 1.0420 levels. As the dollar is weaker on Trump’s inauguration day, that is pushing EUR/USD back up towards the 1.0400 mark. The expiries above should play a role in

British Pound Futures Price Prediction by AI: Key Levels and Strategies for Today The British Pound Futures (6B) have displayed intriguing price action in today’s 30-minute sessions, as ticker 6B is now at 1.2245 with buyers and sellers battling for control at the 1.2241 Value Area Low (VAL). AI prediction for the British Pound futures

Monday was a roller-coaster for Canadian dollar traders as the loonie jumped to a one-month high at the start of the day on a report that Trump wouldn’t announce any tariffs on Day 1. Instead, he issued a memo asking to study trade deficits, including against Canada. That flipped late in the day (early in

TradeCompass for Euro FX Futures (Ticker: 6E) – January 21, 2025 Current Overview:Euro FX Futures (6E) are trading at 1.0406, slightly below today’s VWAP (1.0412). This places the market in bearish territory based on the TradeCompass. Traders should monitor the outlined key levels for potential breakout or continuation trades. Key Levels to Watch for Euro

During his speech at the presidential parade following Donald Trump’s inauguration, Elon Musk made a suspiciously familiar gesture, which the telecast quickly cut off. But, as always, the Internet never forgets, and the video quickly spread through social media. In the past (under the previous administration), such an incident would probably have sparked a major

Trudeau will remain Prime Minister until a new Liberal leader is chosen in March, so he will be the one dealing with tariffs if they’re imposed on Feb 1. Our government has already acted to address Trump’s concerns about the border Golden age of US will require Canadian resources Trump is a skilled negotiator who

Chinese authorities will be nervously eyeing remarks like this: Trump says thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada If he can shaft countries he has a free trade agreement with, that he negotiated, what will he do to China? That 7.1703 rate is the strongest, for CNY (lowest for USD/CNY) since November

The market is continuing to weigh the first day of Trump’s new term. The latest move in market seems to be that he’s not really serious about putting on 25% tariffs on February 1. His own words weren’t exactly declarative. “We are thinking in terms of 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada because they

Welcome to the Trump Show Part 2. There is going to be non-stop noise but most of what’s really market moving for the economy requires an act of Congress so those discussions will be the big ones. Or at least that and tariffs. This announcement is scheduled for 4 pm ET. This article was written

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. Yesterday, the greenback weakened across the board following a WSJ report

The USD soared earlier on: Trump says thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and is now retracing against most major FX. Trump nominated February 1 for the potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico but the the order he signed requests “a unified report coordinated by the Secretary of Commerce by April

Germany ZEW survey current conditions -90.4 vs -93.0 expeccted US futures creep higher on the session ECB’s Villeroy: We are not on a pre-set course on rates Dollar firms as traders check back on tariffs European indices hold slightly lower at the open today What are the main events for today? Eurostoxx futures -0.3% in

I posted yesterday on the Wall Street Journal story leaking details of Trump’s ‘day one’ agenda, noting that he wasn’t going to implement tariffs: Leaks around Trump’s ‘day one’ executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at all While I urged caution, noting that Trump can be mercurial and volatile with policy announcements (that’s what’s Twitter

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. Yesterday, the greenback weakened across the board following a WSJ report

German DAX futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures flat After a brief reprieve on tariffs, Trump warned Canada and Mexico that it is coming late on in the day. And that’s arguably also keeping European investors on their toes at the moment. It is a signal that when Trump turns on the switch, things can move

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

European Union finance ministers reached agreed on Monday to maintain a unified stance toward the new U.S. administration, emphasizing that strengthening the EU’s economic competitiveness is the best way to address potential transatlantic challenges, according to EU diplomats. During an informal dinner, the 27 finance ministers also agreed that fostering deeper economic ties between the

TradeCompass for Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) – January 21, 2025 Current Overview:Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) are trading at 2298, slightly below the psychological 2300 round number, an area that often attracts price fluctuations. With a tight range defined by bullish momentum above 2307 and bearish sentiment below 2301.5, today’s trading session offers clear levels for

WTI crude oil is currently down 2.65% on the day as Trump’s pledge of boosting oil output and imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico is weighing on oil prices. The bigger concern in the market might be a potential trade war. Trade wars aren’t good as they lead to an economic slowdown which depresses

The EU have expressed a desire to work with Trump: European Union finance ministers met Monday, energy prices were a hot topic Buying oil & gas would likely be a nice option for them. Trump market mover earlier: Trump says thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada Slapping a 25% tariff on

In the kickstart video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. On the earnings calendar today 3M Co (MMM) Q4 2024: EPS: $1.68 (STRONGER; exp. $1.66) Revenue: $5.8B (MET; exp. $5.78B) Charles Schwab (SCHW) EPS $1.01 (STRONGER; exp $0.91) Revenues $5.33B (STRONGER, exp $51.9B)

Just out: Trump says thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada In the Wrap yesterday I warned to watch out for a reversal: set up a retrace higher for USD. A sharp one I’d suggest. Something to eye in the hours ahead. It took a while but here we are … and

It’s going to be a somewhat fun but enduring four years, isn’t it? Trump’s inauguration day was loud and you wouldn’t expect anything less. But how did it really impact markets? For one, the dollar felt a pinch early on as he seemed to be building a better rapport with China president Xi. The TikTok

The dollar fell yesterday as traders were hopeful that Trump may not come down hard on the tariffs front. His inauguration speech and first orders were not too forceful on the issue but late on in the day, he delivered a warning here. It’s a check back to reality for markets that things are not

On Monday, Trump rescinded a 2021 executive order issued by President Joe Biden, which aimed to make half of all new vehicle sales electric by 2030 the 50% goal was not legally binding but it had gained backing from both U.S. and international automakers Trump also intends to instruct agencies to review regulations that impose

Several major central banks have scheduled monetary policy meetings before the end of January 2025: Bank of Japan (BoJ): The BoJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting is set for January 23-24, 2025. Federal Reserve (Fed): The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on January 28-29, 2025. European Central Bank (ECB): The ECB’s Governing Council is scheduled

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. Yesterday, the greenback weakened across the board following a WSJ report

Trump speaking: “We’re not going to do the wind thing” wind turbines are ugly reaffirms policy is to “drill baby drill” Oil prices facing some headwind from the expected boost to supply. I posted on this yesterday to give y’all a head start on the week: Trump to declare a National Energy Emergency – will

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would be directing Bank of Japan intervention, should it come

Prior 4.3% Employment change 35k vs 33k expected Prior 173k Average weekly earnings +5.6% vs +5.6% 3m/y expected Prior +5.2% Average weekly earnings ex bonus +5.6% vs +5.5% 3m/y expected Prior +5.2% December payrolls change -47k Prior -35k; revised to -32k The payrolls change continues to point to further softness in the labour market but

Kato expects BOJ to manage monetary policy appropriately Expects BOJ to achieve 2% inflation target with appropriate monetary policies This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The main event in the European session was the UK Employment report which showed once again some softness although wage growth continues to run hot. This shouldn’t change anything for the BoE as a 25 bps cut at the upcoming meeting is mostly priced in. In the American session, the focus will switch to the

A White House press release said Trump issued an executive action suspending offshore wind leasing from all areas of the U.S. outer continental shelf pending an environmental and economic review. order is not expected to impact existing U.S. offshore wind projects Trump says wind mills are ugly, expensive and harm wildlife “We’re not going to

Trump has lifted a moratorium on new US licenses to export liquefied natural gas. Trump whirlwind of orders on day one. He hasn’t done anything on tariffs but dropped this remark into the mix: Trump says thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada Which sent the USD back up again after its

USD/JPY update, no fresh news as yet. The pair dipped under 155.00 in early Tokyo trade: That horizontal line is mine, but I don’t have a lot of faith in it. I am sure traders out there reading ForexLive will have better technical analysis than my precarious line here? This article was written by Eamonn

Dow futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures also seen up 0.4% currently. Tariff fears returning to broader markets? Not to worry. This one picture says a lot about what Trump deems as the most important people during his inauguration yesterday: It’s a mix of fortunes for markets in European trading. In FX, the dollar

Prior -93.1 Economic sentiment 10.3 vs 15.3 expected Prior 15.7 After the fall in German economic sentiment to the lowest since May 2020 last month, we are seeing a marginal improvement this time around. However, that is largely negated by a considerable drop in the outlook reading. And that indicates worsening fears surrounding the prospects

It’s a lower tier data calendar for the Asia time zone. The data from New Zealand is unlikely to shove around the kiwi $ much at all upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are

TradeCompass for Gold Futures Analysis Today – January 21, 2025 Current Overview:Gold Futures are currently trading at 2,740, maintaining a tight range. Traders should closely monitor the key breakout levels: 2,745 for bullish opportunities and 2,735 for bearish setups. These levels align with significant technical indicators, including the VWAP and Value Area boundaries from previous

Donald Trump sworn in as President Trump to lay out trade vision but won’t impose tariffs yet – report Full text: Trump admin circulates document on priorities to Republicans Trump to pardon non-violent Jan 6 defendants, commute the rest – report Trump inauguration speech highlights tariffs. US dollar bounces Five things we learned from Trump’s

This is a social media report originating at Walla News. Walla is described as Israel’s leading news and content website. Maybe take a bit of care with this news. — The previous administration of US President Biden halted the shipment of such weapons. Trump was sworn in on January 20. This article was written by

Trump signed a large package of executive orders, none of them on tariffs hiring freeze in the federal government—excluding defense end work from home for federal employees rescission of 78 Biden era actions orders and memoranda withdrawal from Paris Climate Treaty Revoke revokes Biden Executive Order that set a target of 50% of new vehicle

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures – January 21, 2025 Current Overview:Bitcoin Futures are currently trading at $102,400, remaining within a tight range. Traders should monitor key levels for potential bullish or bearish breakout opportunities. Key Levels to Watch for Bitcoin Futures Today: Bullish Bias Above $102,700 A breakout above this level would put Bitcoin Futures above

Forex payment gateways are flexible and versatile, allowing secure transactions on an international scale in the foreign exchange market. With global Forex trading boasting an average daily volume of over $7.5 trillion, it is evident that a robust payment structure is a prerequisite for carrying out intricate foreign trade operations. These gateways serve as a

Looks like we are in for another four years of wild ride. Thankfully we’ve all experienced it and are ready! The market mover from just earlier: Trump says thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would be directing Bank of Japan intervention, should it come

New Zealand Card Retail Sales – for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. -1.0% y/y in December 2024 prior was -2.3 For the m/m, +2.0% prior 0% (zero) *** Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for

TradeCompass for Nasdaq Futures – January 21, 2025 Current Overview:The Nasdaq Futures (NQ) is trading at 21,623, hovering just above yesterday’s close. With a small movement so far (+0.14%), the market lacks directional bias at this time. Key Levels to Watch for Nasdaq Futures Today: Bullish Bias Above 21,665 This level aligns with: The developing

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade related memo falls short of implementing any solutions. Its going to be a long and hard road this one: draft Trump trade memo directs federal agencies to investigate and remedy persistent U.S. trade deficits that harm U.S. economy draft Trump trade memo seeks to address unfair trade practices and currency manipulation by foreign countries

Sheesh, I posted a ‘precarious’ horizontal support line …. link here ICYMI: And, well, it seems to have worked out OK … thank to Trump’s tariff remark: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand’s services sector PMI from the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for December 2024: 47.9 prior 49.1 New Zealand’s services sector exhibited a faster rate of contraction well below the average of 53.1 over the history of the survey sector has now been in contraction for ten consecutive months Respondents’ comments

The first market move of Trump’s second Presidency was: US dollar weakness. It was a sharp move on a report — later confirmed — that Trump won’t be initiating any tariffs to begin his term. The main lesson in that — and I think we’ve learned this before — is that Trump’s bark is worse

The headline on this yesterday didn’t have any detail: Reports that a Tesla vehicle on autopilot has crashed into a retail store More has emerged: A Tesla crashed into The Mellow SF plant store Elizabeth Creely, a Mission resident, was riding her bike west on 21st Street when she came upon the accident. Creely spoke

CNN, citing sources, reports that Trump will pardon those convicted of non-violent crimes in the Jan 6 attack on the Capitol and those convicted of more-serious crimes will have their sentences commuted. I don’t think is a surprise and it’s certainly no market moving. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There has been considerable hand-wringing about Treasury yields in the run-up to the election. I believe it became increasingly clear that the angst is more about deficits than inflation. Breakevens have remained rangebound even as nominal yields rose. A big part of the move is better growth and expectations of growth as well. Certainly some

One report says that the wallet that bought $1,000,000 worth of $TRUMP at 18-cents has transferred his tokens to other wallets and completely exited his positions following $TRUMP ‘s listing on Robinhood. The buyer netted a profit of over $300 million. The memecoin is now quoted at $36.22, down 29% today as one of the

Ethereum Futures TradeCompass – Updated January 20, 2025 Current Context: Ethereum futures (ETH 01-25) are trading around $3,390, with today’s Value Area High (VAH) recently recalculated to $3,416. The price has broken above the psychological level of $3,400, reaching a high of $3,402.5 in the past half-hour. The VWAP and Point of Control (POC) remain

A Reuters report citing a ‘Trump official’ confirms the earlier WSJ report that the President-elect won’t impose tariffs today and instead will issue a memo to study trade practices. The earlier report sparked some big market moves. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Here is the document’s full text: MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN President Trump will take bold action to secure our border and protect American communities. This includes ending Biden’s catch-and-release policies, reinstating Remain in Mexico, building the wall, ending asylum for illegal border crossers, cracking down on criminal sanctuaries, and enhancing vetting and screening of aliens.

Fundamental Overview Gold finally reached the key resistance zone around the 2721 level following better than expected US inflation data and a surprisingly dovish Fed’s Waller last week. Following those catalysts, the price kept on going higher as real yields moved lower on a potential top in the inflation hysteria and the repricing in rate

No surprise from Trump so far: I was saved by God to Make America Great Again We will drill, baby, drill We will fill strategic reserves again and export American energy all over the world Will begin overhaul of trade system Will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens “It will be massive

The incoming Trump Admin has sent a new document to Republican lawmakers detailing immediate priorities. It doesn’t mention bitcoin or crypto and that’s led to some selling. Hopes were obviously heightened after the latest round of meme coins. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Future Sales Expectations at +31% vs +13%: Improved outlook with stronger demand expected, boosted by interest rate cuts (highest since Q2 2021) More widespread plans to increase investment, well above historical average Recession expectations at 15% vs 16% Further easing in capacity constraints, labor shortages less intense Labor shortages among lowest in survey history (ie,

$TRUMP Meme Coin Dominates Crypto Markets Amid Frenzy and Controversy The cryptocurrency world is abuzz as President-elect Donald Trump makes waves with the surprise launch of his official meme coin, $TRUMP. Announced across social media platforms on Friday night, this token has skyrocketed in popularity, capturing the imagination of supporters while raising concerns among critics.

Closing changes for the day: Stoxx 600 +0.1% German DAX +0.5% France CAC +0.3% UK FTSE 100 +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.2% The moves today were relatively modest but highlight optimism that Trump won’t impose tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian dollar has been a big mover today, trading in a 220 pip range. The pair rose to the highest of the year earlier at 1.4485 on fears that Trump would enact Day 1 tariffs on Canada of up to 25%, sparking retaliation and a trade war. However a WSJ report highlighted that Trump

Donald Trump has officially become President of the United States for the second time, after taking the oath of office. He is the 47th President. Punchbowl News is also reporting that Trump will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord as one of his first acts. That’s no surprise. This article was written by Adam Button

Ed O’Keefe at CBS News obtained excerpts from Trump’s inaugural address, though I don’t see anything surprising here it sets the table for what comes after he’s sworn in. “I return to the presidency confident and optimistic that we are at the start of a thrilling new era of national success. A tide of change

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass for January 20, 2025: Crude Oil Futures (CL) Analysis Crude oil futures (CL) are currently trading at $77.14, with the following thresholds: Bullish Above: $77.54 – Signaling upside momentum if crossed. Bearish Below: $76.97 – Indicating a bearish stage if breached. Why These Thresholds Matter Bullish Above $77.54: This price is above today’s VWAP,

US equity markets won’t open today due to the MLK holiday but indications are good for tomorrow with S&P 500 futures up 29 points. Futures were lower before the report saying that Trump won’t impose tariffs today but instead will issue a memo to study trade practices. If anything, I suspect this 0.5% move is

Says he’s fine with the current policy stance Data broadly in line with our forecasts The market is pricing in a 92% chance of an ECB rate cut on Jan 30 and almost fully priced for another one at the subsequent meeting on March 6. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Stanley Druckenmiller is on CNBC at the moment saying he doesn’t have a strong opinion on the direction of the market but with innovation surging he said it’s time to focus on individual stocks. The economy is ‘very interesting’ We’re going from the most anti-business administration to the opposite CEO’s are somewhere between ‘relieved and

Fundamental Overview Copper has been rallying steadily since the start of the month as the market is looking forward to improving global growth in 2025. As a reminder, the Chinese Politburo announced last year that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025 and will seek a “more proactive” fiscal policy.

Headlines: Reminder: US markets will be closed today Weekly update on interest rate expectations Bitcoin at fresh record highs as Trump meme coin sparks buying fever ECB’s Holzmann: A rate cut is not a foregone conclusion for me at all China reportedly set to promote Zou Lan to PBOC deputy governor Germany December PPI -0.1%

Vivek Ramaswamy to depart DOGE amid friction with staff; one person close to Trump says, “Vivek has worn out his welcome”. CBS with the report. No one is equal to Musk is the clear message here. Trump will have to throw him under a bus soon 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

News like this can impact the price of TSLA. Awaiting any further detail / denials. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass for January 20, 2025: Bitcoin Futures Analysis Bitcoin futures (BTC) are currently trading at $101,925. Today’s key thresholds for determining market sentiment are: Bullish Above: $103,260 – Signaling upside momentum if the price moves above Friday’s Value Area High. Bearish Below: $101,215 – Indicating bearish sentiment if the price drops below today’s developing VWAP.

I’ve been writing about this since the election and it’s worth repeating now. Trump’s economic campaign was on three things: Boosting the stock market Narrowing trade deficits via tariffs Narrowing fiscal deficits Those three goals are incompatible. I have emphasized that the way to trade Trump is to believe that the stock market (and GDP

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Note also that today, Monday, January 20, 2025, is a US market holiday. Guide: EUR/USD 1.0280 USD/JPY 156.27 GBP/USD 1.2165 USD/CHF 0.9140

Japan’s core machinery orders rose 3.4% in November, exceeding expectations and signaling a recovery in capital expenditure ahead of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate review. Bank of Japan expected to raise rates this week – but there is a hurdle to overcome first Orders from manufacturers jumped 6.0% non-manufacturers saw a 1.2% increase Analysts

On Monday will be a slow day with the Presidential Inauguration taking center stage in the U.S. On Tuesday, key labor market data will be released in the U.K., including the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Additionally, inflation data will be published for both Canada and New Zealand.

Is the Stock Market Open Today? Comprehensive Guide for January 20, 2025 If you’re planning your trades or investments and wondering whether the U.S. stock market is open today, the answer is no. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq are both closed on Monday, January 20, 2025, in observance of Martin Luther King,

Barcl;ayus says there is a risk of renewed yen weakness. Barclays’ analysts cite factors contributing to this risk include: Trump’s trade policies U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials capital outflows from Japan The analysts caution that policy announcements or statements made around Trump’s inauguration could strengthen the USD. Additionally, any BOJ rate hike next week is largely

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB flat Not a whole lot going on as the session gets underway. It’s a quiet one with US on holiday but there is Trump’s inauguration to look forward to later at 1700 GMT. US futures are also

X Open Hub, an enterprise-grade liquidity and technology provider for the brokerage industry listed by the Warsaw Stock Exchange, envisions an exciting 2025 marked by continued success building on a previous award-winning streak. Between 14-16 January, the company attended iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, held at the Dubai World Trade Centre. A landmark event for online

USD/JPY is notably lower, from an early high above 156.50 its fallen to lows under 155.75. Major FX elsewhere has outperformed the USD also, EUR, AUD, CAD, GBP, NZDf …. all are higher against the big dollar. Apart from what has been posted there is nothing fresh or new. USD index (DXY) 30 minute candles

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 level again. Amid some slight dollar weakness ahead of Trump’s inauguration, the expiries here should act as a magnet to keep price action more contained near the figure level in European trading at least. Also, do

The first market-moving headline of the day is out with the WSJ reporting that Trump will lay out a trade vision but won’t impose new tariffs yet. The US dollar is down 50-100 pips across the board on the headlines. President-elect Donald Trump is planning to issue a broad memorandum Monday that directs federal agencies

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 39 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 97 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 64 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 58 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 70 bps

US poltics – Vivek Ramaswamy to depart DOGE Is the Stock Market Open Today? Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Nov) -0.3% (expected 0.1%, prior 0.1%) Japan data – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)-2.2% (expected -2.3%, prior -2.3%) The USD has begun the week very soft Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today Trump to declare a National Energy

I went away for a week to Dubai and it feels like I’m coming back to a different world. The incoming US President launched a memecoin that ballooned his net worth by around $30 billion. That was followed by a similar coin launch from First Lady Malania Trump. CoinTelegraph reports that Trump’s World Liberty Financial

Prior +0.5% The marginal decline owes to a fall in energy prices (-0.4%) as PPI was flat if you strip that out from the calculations. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is a US holiday in conjunction with Martin Luther King Day. That means markets will be closed in what is a long weekend of sorts. If you’re looking for CME hours, you can check out Eamonn’s post earlier here. Anyway, even with it being a holiday there will be something for market players to

A brief summary of a note from Nomura re their outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy: foresee a single 25 basis point rate cut occurring in March 2025, after which the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady for an extended period due to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs. In the early stages of

Rightmove House Price Index for January indicates that UK home asking prices have shown their biggest early-year rise since 2020. average price of properties coming to market rose by 1.7% between Dec. 8 and Jan. 11 to 366,189 pounds ($445,944), 9,000 pounds below a peak hit in May last year, Rightmove said (December figure was

Print this out an stick it on your fridge! From our glossary; The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This article was written

The Reuters report, citing sources with knowledge of the matter, says that the appointment will be announced as soon as this week. Once made, Zou is to be the youngest deputy governor at the PBOC. For some context, Zou has a decent history at the central bank having been promoted to director of financial markets

According to a Bank of America survey on FX and rates sentiment, the long dollar trade is now considered the most crowded, with positioning emerging as the primary obstacle for the currency. Analysts note that dollar positioning presents a significant challenge, a concern they also share. They highlight that long dollar positions are notably elevated

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Nov) -0.3% expected 0.1%, prior 0.1% — Tertiary Industry Index released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry indicates the domestic service sector in Japan such as information and communication, electricity, gas heat and water,services, transport, wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance, and welfare. Generally, a high reading

TradeCompass for January 20, 2025: Japanese Yen Futures (6J) Analysis The Japanese yen futures (6J) are currently trading at 0.0064570, placing the market in bullish territory, as the price has moved above the January 15th Value Area High (0.0064530). This level serves as a critical threshold for determining potential upside momentum in today’s trading session.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 436.7 bn vs CHF 437.1 bn prior It’s just a marginal change in sight deposits in the past week, following a slight bounce after the start of the new year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Love him. Hate him. He certainly does live up to the memes and this time, quite literally. Trump launched his own cryptocurrency over the weekend, dubbed $TRUMP and it has already generated roughly $12 billion in market cap (the high was $14 billion overnight). It is sparking a buying frenzy in the crypto space and

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been rallying steadily since the breakout of the range as the improving US manufacturing activity and the tougher US sanctions on Russian crude triggered a 12% squeeze in a heavily shorted market. The focus now switched to Trump as he’s expected to sign executive orders on energy and potential declaring

J.P. Morgan Asset Management with the projection: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rate after the Lunar New Year holiday National People’s Congress (this takes place in early March) to announce a series of fiscal support policies ps. I just posted a contrasting forecast hereL PBOC may

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, we don’t have much on the agenda today. The European session is pretty much empty with no market moving releases. In the American session, we have the BoC Business Outlook Survey and the New Zealand Services PMI, which aren’t market moving in general. The main event is of

Market expectations are high for a Bank of Japan rate hike at their January 23 and 24 meeting this week. Check out this graph from Reuters on inflation sitting above target since late 2022: The hurdle to a rate hike this week is any unexpected market volatility following Trump’s swearing in later today, January 20.

Repeating what I posted last week as a heads up to this. Monday January 20 is the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the US: The two major stock markets – the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2025 Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures -0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures seen flat for the time being. There is an air of optimism in FX at least amid “positive talks” between Trump and Xi. But so far, equities are yet to pick up on that for now.

The dollar is down as markets are bracing for Trump’s inauguration later in the day. The early signals is that there won’t be anything too significant on the tariffs front and that is putting the dollar off slightly. Trump and Xi also had positive talks over the weekend with the former tweeting this: “I just

Trump will take office at noon, US Eastern time, on January 20. he says he’ll sign close to 100 executive orders within a few hours of being sworn in. Earlier we had a guide to what he’ll be addressing with his EOs: Leaks around Trump’s ‘day one’ executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at all

Compared to the previous December in 2023, producer and import prices were seen down 0.9% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump spoke on Sunday at a rally in Washinton: going to stop the invasion of our borders going to unlock the liquid gold under our feet will act tomorrow with historic speed and strength spoke with Apple’s Cook, he said they’d make massive investment in the US Earlier: Trump to issue executive orders on immigration,

Latest data shows inflation well above 2% in December That will likely also be the case for January ECB risks hurting its credibility if it cuts rates when inflation rises faster than initially thought It’s a slight suggestion that the pathway isn’t going to be as straightforward. But it’s pretty much a given that they

Apple has cut prices on several iPhone models in China prices under CNY 6,000 This follows China’s government’s latest subsidy announcement. Apple’s phones are at the upper end of the pricing spectrum in China (and elsewhere!) and lose out to much more price-competivie Chinese brands (running different o/s and hardware, of course). This article was

People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting. 1-year set at 3.1% expected 3.1% and prior 3.1% 5-year set at 3.6% expected 3.6%, prior 3.6% *** As I posted earlier: Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. The one-year

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Extract: Trump is readying a blitz of executive orders that he plans to issue just hours after he is sworn into office orders, which would make major changes to immigration, energy and government hiring policies Stephen Miller, Trump’s incoming White House deputy chief of staff for policy, briefed

Any rapid imposition of tariffs would be viewed in market as a negative for risk at this stage. As an update to this earlier: Trump to issue executive orders on immigration, energy, government hiring policies soon in reports on these leaks there is no mention of tariffs. To conclude ‘no tariffs to be announced today’,

Earlier: Japan Industrial Production for November (preliminary) Final readings now: Industrial Production Final (MoM) (Nov) -2.2% Forecast -2.3%, Previous -2.3% And -2.7% y/y prior -2.8% — Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major

more to come No further details at this time. *** In general, when a U.S. president declares a national emergency, they gain access to broad executive powers that allow them to bypass certain legal and regulatory restrictions. These powers, derived from over 100 special statutory provisions, enable the president to reallocate military funds, impose economic

China’s Vice President Han Zheng met soon to be VP Vance in Washington, according to state media: Han says he is willing to work with the US to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US relations. says US-China shared interests and cooperation potential remain vast despite disagreements; dialogue and consultation can be strengthened. says

Core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months The Bank of Japan is meeting this week, on January 23 and 24. A rate hike is widely expected and data such as this, which is admittedly a volatile data

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The 2025 Chinese New Year holiday, also known as the Spring Festival, will be on Wednesday, January 29, and last until Tuesday, February 4. It celebrates Lunar New Year. Chinese media reported last week that the People’s Bank of China may cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) prior to the holiday to alleviate the pressure

The People’s Bank of China is the focus today, with LPR settings. These are not as critical as they once were. In June 2024, Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a strategic shift, designating the 7-day reverse repurchase (repo) rate as the primary short-term policy rate. However, most new and outstanding loans in China are based on

Mon: US Presidential Inauguration, PBoC LPR, Eurogroup Meeting; German Producer Prices (Dec) Tue: UK Unemployment/Wages (Nov), German ZEW (Jan), Canadian CPI (Dec), New Zealand CPI (Q4) Wed: South African CPI (Dec), Japanese Trade Balance (Dec) Thu: Norges Bank & CBRT Policy Announcements; US Jobless Claims (w/e 18th), Canadian Retail Sales (Nov), Japanese CPI (Dec), Swiss

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC LPR,US Presidential Inauguration Day, BoC Business Outlook Survey, New Zealand Services PMI. Tuesday: UK Employment report, German ZEW, Canada CPI, New Zealand Q4 CPI. Thursday: Canada Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims. Friday: Japan CPI, BoJ Policy Decision, Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs. Monday The PBoC is expected to keep the LPR rates unchanged

Here is my base case. Greenland: This is a real pet project of Trump’s. He’s a real estate guy, it’s the biggest island in the world and there are only 56,000 people there. Denmark is weak, there is already a US base on the island and there are probably a lot of natural resources waiting

EURUSD: USDJPY: GBPUSD: USDCHF: USDCAD: AUDUSD: NZDUSD: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD bottomed this week on Monday after falling below the 61.8% of the move up from the 2022 low to the 2023 high at 1.0200. That break could not be sustained. The seller had their shot. They missed. The subsequent move higher saw the pair peak near the 38.2% of the move down from

Total rig count down -4 to 580 Oil rig count -2 to 478 Gas rig count -2 to 98 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In the above video, I take a look at the technical levels in play for the AUDUSD heading into the new trading week. For the week, the low on Monday traded to a new low going back to 2020, but could not sustain the bearish momentum. The subsequent rise saw a double top established at

US stock indice close higher on the day and have positive returns for the week Baker Hughes oil rig count down -2 to 468 European indices close higher. Record closing levels for some of the indices. Bitcoin jumps to $105,000 Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 unchanged at 3.0% Bank of Canada releases what

The major US stock indices are closing higher for the day and for the week. The week gain, is the first for the new trading year for the broader indices. For the day: Dow industrial average rose 334.70 points or 0.78% at 43487.83 S&P index rose 59.32 points or 1.00% at 5996.66 NASDAQ index rose

In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the NZDUSD as we look toward the new trading week. The sellers are more in control below a cluster of MA with a high at 0.5612. If the price cannot get above those MAs, the sellers are in full control A move above

The GBPUSD traded to new lows going back to November 2023 on Monday, but fell short of downside targets on the daily chart at 1.2039 to 1.20686. The low reached just below the 1.2100 level at 1.20989. The price bounced but quite frankly the price action was sloppy and misbehaving to the technicals for the

The USDJPY last week, moved up to test a key target on the daily chart near 158.88. Sellers leaned and pushed the price off those levels into the close a week ago today. This week, the price of the USDJPY has stepped lower after peaking on Tuesday near the high of a swing area at

More from China’s Xi: There are inevitable differences between China and US, the key is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns, and find proper ways to resolve issues . China a US shares broad common interests and broader space for cooperation. Can be partners and friends. Question of Taiwan concerns China’s national

New Zealand manufacturing pmi from BusinessNZ. Comes in at 45.9 for December 2024 prior 45.2 in contraction for 22 consecutive months BusinessNZ says 2024 was the first time in the survey’s history that all 12 months were in contraction BNZ: “the PMI is yet another New Zealand economic indicator that suggests parts of the economy

The Congressional Budget Office is out with their forecast for the US deficit and also the benchmark for the new presidents term. Congressional Budget Office forecasts FY 2025 U.S. budget deficit at $1.865 trillion vs $1.832 trillion FY 2024 deficit. CBO forecasts FY 2025 deficit at 6.2% of GDP vs 6.4% in FY 2024, with

TradeCompass: January 17, 2025Financial Instrument: Japanese Yen FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 0.006457 Bullish Case Bullish Above: 0.00647 Why Bullish Above: This level is above today’s VWAP and Point of Control (POC), signaling potential buyer dominance if price sustains above this threshold. Profit Targets for Long Positions: 0.0064780 0.006495 0.006500 Bearish Case Bearish Below:

Getting old before getting rich? That could be the new stigma that China finds itself in as its population fell for a third straight year in 2024. Xi Jinping tried to persuade the nation with a shift towards “common prosperity”, hoping to drive a change in social thinking that arguably reached peak angst during Beijing’s

With President Trump signaling support for cryptocurrency ahead of his inauguration on Monday, Bitcoin is rallying in anticipation. The price recently surged to $105,001, its highest level since December 18. On December 17, Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $108,364. Today, Bitcoin is up nearly $5,000, or 5.0%, and has gained over 11% for the

The main event in the European session was the release of the UK Retail Sales data which missed expectations across the board by a big margin. The GBP is currently under pressure as a result. We will also have the Eurozone CPI report but it’s the final reading, so it’s unlikely to be market moving.

The major European indices closed solidly higher not only for the day but also the week. The gains have led to record closes for the German DAX, the UK’s FTSE 100 and Italy’s FTSE MIB. The final numbers for the day show: German DAX, +1.20%. For the week the index rose 3.41%. A new record

President-elect Trump will be inaugurated on Monday and you can expect on Tuesday he will hit the ground running with calls to global leaders. It is being reported by Xinhua that Trump has already in contact with Xi via a phone call. Of extreme interest will be China’s intentions for Taiwan. Trump has promised that

Pres. elect Trump in an interview on CNN said: it is ultimately up to me He did not specify what he wants to do, but he has said/implied he wants TikTok to be Amerian owned and operated within the United States.. Trump benefited from TikTok in the election. He does not want to alienate the

China Q4 GDP +1.6% q/q expected: 1.6% previous: 0.9% For the y/y +5.4% in Q4 China GDP for 2024 as a whole is 5.0% y/y. Easily hitting target. Par for the course for China isn’t it? Also, December 2024 data: Industrial Production +6.2% y/y, a strong beat expected: 5.4%, previous: 5.4% the manufacturing sector is

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 42 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 98 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 65 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 58 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 71 bps

Bitcoin CME Futures Analysis: Potential Bull Flag Breakout and Key Scenarios Bitcoin CME futures are currently trading within a descending channel on the daily chart, a pattern often recognized as a potential bull flag. This setup is catching the attention of traders and investors, as it may signal a continuation of the broader bullish trend.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 remains unchanged at 3.0% after data today. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s releases from the

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Retail sales +3.6% vs +4.2% y/y expected Prior +0.5%; revised to 0.0% Retail sales ex autos, fuel -0.6% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.1% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +2.9% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +0.1%; revised to -0.5% Ouch. And to think that the November report

Prior month US industrial production -0.1%. Revised to +0.2% US industrial production 0.9% versus 0.3% expected Prior capacity utilization 76.8%. Revised higher 277.0% Capacity realization for December 77.6% versus 77.0% expected. Best since August of 2024 Manufacturing output MoM 0.6% versus 0.2% estimate. Prior month revised higher to 0.4% from 0.2% good data for the

Sector Overview Today, the U.S. stock market showcases a remarkable resurgence in the technology sector, juxtaposed against a noticeable pullback in healthcare. Leading the tech charge are giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), which have posted gains of 1.93% and 1.76% respectively. Meanwhile, healthcare stocks are under pressure, with Lilly (LLY) down by 1.24%.

The USDCAD moved higher in the North American session and in doing so, stretched to the high of a “Red Box”: that has confined the pair going back to mid-December (see chart below). That level comes in at 1.44666. The high price stalled just short of that level at 1.44635. Conversely, earlier this week, the

The US Supreme Court rules against TikToks challenge to law that would force a sale or ban the app in United States. Does TikTok get banned on Sunday. The Biden Administration said they would not let it go black on Sunday (i.e. enforce the law). They are passing the buck to the Trump administration. Trump

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The BOC has released a review of exceptional policy actions taken during the pandemic and what it has learned for the futureThey concluded: In the future, it could be clearer about limited circumstances under which it would conduct large-scale asset purchases during a crisis. This would guard against moral hazard, when market participants take bigger

Fundamental Overview The USD has been unusually resilient this week despite lots of negative catalysts. The US PPI and Core CPI came in on the softer side which saw the market increasing the easing expectations from 24 bps before the data to 37 bps after. Moreover, yesterday Fed’s Waller delivered some surprisingly dovish comments saying

China has recorded its third consecutive year of population decline. end of 2024 population 1.408 billion, down 1.39 million from the previous year It’s a similar trend more broadly in the region: Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong are all seeing falling birth rates Japan’s population fall began in 2021 Limited immigration policies make it

Prior month 1.289M revised to 1.294M Housing starts 1.499M vs 1.320M est Housing starts +15.8% versus -3.7% last month Building permit prior month 1.505M Building permits 1.483M vs 1.460M Building permits, -0.7% month on month versus +6.1% last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF is lower on the week after reaching the highest level going back to May 2024 on Monday. The low for the week was reached on Wednesday after the US CPI data, but that decline was quickly rejected. The rebound after the CPI took the price up to its 100-hour moving average where sellers

Slight delay in the release by the source. The breakdown shows surpluses for goods (€35 billion) and services (€12 billion). Meanwhile, deficits were recorded for secondary income (€14 billion) and primary income (€6 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is a down day for the major US indices. The declines were led by the NASDAQ index which felt -0.89%. The Russell 2000 was actually higher on the day. The snapshot of the major indices closing levels shows: Dow industrial average fell -68.42 points or -0.16% 43153.13 S&P index fell -12.57 points or -0.21%

There remains a high level of uncertainty on the inflation outlook We should not rush into anything on the path to monetary policy normalisation No issues with discussing a bigger rate cut in December, “that’s part of it” From a German standpoint, you can understand the angle he is trying to work with his comments

In addition to TikTok, Pres. Trump is saying that he is planning a flood of immigration executive orders on day one. However, Politico reports, that Trump is unlikely to fulfill key Day One promises, including: Large-scale deportation efforts. Ending birthright citizenship quickly. Challenges include legal, logistical hurdles, and the need for congressional approval. Instead, his

The kickstart video above gets the US session going by taking a technical look at the 3 -major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Technically: The EURUSD found support near its 100 hour MA for the 3rd day in a row. That keeps the buyers in play and control in the short term,

Bloomberg (gated)with the info. In brief: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s computer was infiltrated by Chinese state-sponsored hackers, who accessed unclassified files. fewer than 50 files accessed the hackers also breached the computers of two of Yellen’s top aides I(Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Acting Under Secretary Brad Smith), and accessed employee usernames and passwords,

The US Presidential inauguration will take place on Monday (as will the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday). Ahead of that event in transition to the 2nd term, Pres electr Trump talked to China’s Xi. Here is what he said about that call: ….and he’s off. Expect ALOT of news and actions next week. Our fingers

ECB’s Elderson is lamenting and saying: If we lower the interest rate to quickly, darling down services inflation sufficiently could become complicated. If we keep interest rates too high for too long, then we risk undershooting our target. What do we do? ECB is expected to cut rates at its next meeting This article was

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.5% France CAC 40 +0.5% UK FTSE +0.9% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% The DAX is at fresh record highs while the CAC 40 runs up above its 200-day moving average for the first time since September last year. The good times continue to roll for European stocks with

The major US stock indices are on pace to have their first positive week. Coming into the day: Dow industrial average up 2.90% S&P index up 1.89% NASDAQ index is up 0.92%. in premarket trading futures implying: S&P index 52.66 points Dow industrial average 274 points NASDAQ index up 342 points Intel shares are up

Trade Compass: Apple Stock (January 17, 2025) Apple is currently trading at $230.11 in the pre-market, and we’re watching key levels that could guide today’s price action. Here’s a breakdown of the key zones and possible scenarios: Key Levels to Watch Yesterday’s VWAP (Resistance): $230.57 Yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH): $230.96 January 13th Value Area

The World Bank forecasts global growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2.7% in 2024. Developing economies are expected to grow by 4% in 2025-2026, but face the lowest long-term growth since 2000. The global economy is facing headwinds from trade policy shifts, heightened uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and inflation. Simulations show

TD say the U.S. dollar is expected to maintain a strong performance through the first half of the year, supported by a favorable macroeconomic backdrop. The bank’s quantitative and macroeconomic framework remains bullish on the dollar relative to G10 currencies, even as short-term positioning and valuations appear stretched. The analysts say that their outlook is

Japan finance minister Kato up to the BoJ to decide monetary policy expects the Bank of Japan to conduct monetary policy appropriately to achieve 2% inflation target *** The Bank of Japan meet next week, on January 23 and 24. Markets are expecting a rate hike. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Economists at Bank of America forecast the yield on US 10 years to 4.75% this year, but concede it could rise higher: could get above 5% depending on the Federal Reserve but unlikely to rise above 5.25% Wow. BoA see a strong macro economy and a hawkish Fed. Says the bar to a Fed rate

Russell 2000 Index Futures: Trade Compass – January 17, 2025 Current Price: 2290 The TradeCompass simplifies decision-making by mapping out key bullish and bearish thresholds for the Russell 2000 Index Futures. Today’s analysis highlights the index breaking above the value area high of the last three sessions, suggesting bullish momentum as long as price sustains

Fundamental Overview The USD has been unusually resilient this week despite lots of negative catalysts. The US PPI and Core CPI came in on the softer side which saw the market increasing the easing expectations from 24 bps before the data to 37 bps after. Moreover, yesterday Fed’s Waller delivered some surprisingly dovish comments saying

The survey finds little change in the percentage of Japanese households expecting prices to rise a year from now 85.7% of Japanese households expect prices to rise a year from now, compared with 85.6% in the previous survey. But … check out the surge in CPI expected! Japanese households expect inflation to rise by an

Prior month C$-2.65 billion This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The economic calendar is fairly light in the North American session: US housing starts for December are expected to come in at 1.320M versus 1.289M last month. 8:30 AM ET US building permits for December are expected to come in at 1.460M versus 1.505M last month. 8:30 AM ET Canada securities purchases for November will

China Vanke’s Hong Kong-listed shares fell over 8% on Friday following reports that its CEO, Zhu Jiusheng, has been detained by authorities. A Shenzhen government task force has taken control of the state-backed developer’s operations, with reports suggesting a possible government takeover and restructuring. Vanke is grappling with a deepening bond selloff, as concerns grow

Nasdaq Futures Market Analysis – January 17, 2025 Current Price: 21,345 (as of this analysis)Trade Compass Orientation: Bullish above 21,387 | Bearish below 21,265 The TradeCompass remains a key resource for mapping the Nasdaq futures market, simplifying navigation for traders by outlining bullish and bearish thresholds. While the tool offers guidance, every trader should adapt

Breathe easy TikTokers. The Chinese social media site will reportedly NOT go dark for US users on Sunday, ABC news is reporting. That can will be kicked down the road to the new administration next week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.6% UK stocks look poised for a stronger open as the pound falls amid a softer retail sales report here. That surely raises odds of a BOE rate cut for next month. As for overall equities sentiment, we’re in a more tepid phase now with S&P 500 futures

Monetary policy is only moderately restrictive There has been amazing progress on inflation but it remains a problem Restrictive policy is still needed for some period of time to control inflation We also still have a rate-of-change problem that needs to be addressed Thought that 75 bps rate cut for 2024 was appropriate back in

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectations Majority of BOJ policymakers are reportedly likely to approve a rate hike next week Fed’s Hammack: We can be very patient in considering future rate cuts ECB’s Nagel calls for a more cautious approach to rate cuts ECB’s Stournaras: Rate cuts should still continue in the coming meetings

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) spokesman: China’s economic operations were generally steady in 2024 the impact from the external environment changes is deepening domestic demand is insufficient economic operations still face many difficulties and challenges The comments follow the release of the latest Chinese data that confirms the 5% economic growth goal was achieved.

In a research note UOB Global Economics & Markets Research says USD/JPY may fall to 151.80, the bottom of their weekly Ichimoku cloud. Also: daily moving average convergence divergence indicator shows clear bearish divergence, similar to the divergence seen during the pullback to 148.63 last year weekly stochastics indicating a crossover in overbought territory nominates

Cable is now down on the week as sellers are looking to take a crack at a firmer break under 1.2200 today. The catalyst? A softer UK retail sales report in December during the run up to the Christmas holiday period, even when accounting for the Black Friday sales from November. That is seeing the

Fundamental Overview The USD has been unusually resilient this week despite lots of negative catalysts. The US PPI and Core CPI came in on the softer side which saw the market increasing the easing expectations from 24 bps before the data to 37 bps after. Moreover, yesterday Fed’s Waller delivered some surprisingly dovish comments saying

Policy should continue with a series of rate cuts at the next meetings Our moves should be gradual and cautious based on the available data Larger rate cuts should not be ruled out if incoming data warrants it to be the case Latest forecasts show inflation reaching 2% target in a sustainable manner from Q2

European Central Bank speakers Friday include Escriva and Cipollone China’s population fell in 2024 for the third straight year China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says domestic demand is insufficient China property developer Vanke shares plunged – report chief executive has been detained Yuan strengthens after the Chinese data came in strong UOB on what

Here we go. BOJ “leaks” are coming into the picture now and Nikkei is reporting that while some policymakers remain cautious of a rate hike, the majority is still likely to approve one at next week’s policy meeting. The yen reaction has been relatively calm by all means. USD/JPY is still up on the day

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelim Prior +2.7% No changes to the initial estimates as core inflation remains stubborn and caught in between the 2% to 3% mark for now. Services inflation remains the key issue, seen at 4.0% in December. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

0930 GMT/0430 US Eastern time Bank of Spain’s Governor Jose Luis Escriva speaks at the event “The independence of central banks in the face of present and future challenges”, organized by Bank of Spain 1100 GMT/0600 US Eastern time Virtual keynote lecture by ECB board member Piero Cipollone at Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organised

There are quite a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered between 1.0275 through to the 1.0300 level. That is likely to help lock price action in between that range with a limitation closer to the figure level once again before rolling off

Fundamental Overview The USD has been unusually resilient this week despite lots of negative catalysts. The US PPI and Core CPI came in on the softer side which saw the market increasing the easing expectations from 24 bps before the data to 37 bps after. Moreover, yesterday Fed’s Waller delivered some surprisingly dovish comments saying

From China today are Q4 GDP and December 2024 economic indicators (retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment). In November 2024, China’s economic indicators presented a mixed picture: Retail Sales: Increased by 3% year-on-year, a slowdown from October’s 4.8% growth and below the anticipated 4.6%. This deceleration suggests that consumer demand remains subdued, despite

An extended note from Luci Ellis, Chief Economist Westpac Group, Westpac. In brief: A depreciating exchange rate sometimes gets interpreted as a ‘vote of no confidence’ in that economy or currency. In fact, it is often a necessary and welcome shock absorber. future growth in export volumes is mostly going to have to come from

Little joy for China’s housing sector in these figures. Zero percent m/m in December is not a fall though. So there is that. Still to come is December economic data and Q4 GDP: Economic calendar in Asia 17 January 2025 – December and Q4 data due from China This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) +1.7% m/m in December 2024 expected -1.2%, prior +14.7% +9.0% y/y expected +7.8%, prior+3.4% Non-oil domestic exports to the United Sates, Taiwan, Malaysia and Japan increased in annual terms in December, while shipments declined to China and the European Union *** Singapore’s Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) are a key indicator

Monday January 20 is the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the US: The two major stock markets – the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be closed on Monday, November 11, 2024. Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed (SIFMA is the

China’s Q4 economic growth data is due today, along with December economic activity data. I posted a preview here: Economic calendar in Asia 17 January 2025 – December and Q4 data due from China due at 0200 GMT, which is 2100 US Eastern time Reuters have posted a heads up also. In summary: Key Takeaways:

A down day for the major US indices Biden Administration does not plan to take action on TikTok on Sunday Crude oil settled at $78.68 Fed’s Goolsbee: Has grown less concerned about labor market slowdown BOC Granvelle:A Trump tariff on exports would have big negative impact on economic growth The World Bank forecasts global growth

Info via politics website Axios: The deal between Israel and Hamas to release hostages being held in Gaza and begin a ceasefire was officially signed by negotiators in Doha on Thursday, according to two sources familiar with the issue. But the Israeli government isn’t expected to vote on it until Saturday night. The delay in

Market pricing has a rate hike from the Bank of Japan at pretty much a lock. Goldman Sachs Asset Management bullish on the yen sees support for the currency from a potential Bank of Japan move in January Quick interview with Co-CIO of multi-asset solutions Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo on Bloomberg is here This article was written

TD expects the Federal Reserve to remian on hold through H1 of this year, but to resume rate cuts in H2. terminal rate will be in the low 3% region economy need to digest Trump’s policies, especially tariffs and immigration This may be many of us as 2025 unfolds 😉 This article was written by

Crude oil is settling the day at $78.68 on the day. That is down $-1.36 or -1.70%. Looking at the daily chart, the low price held above the 38.2% retracement of the range since the September 2023 high. On the top side the 50% midpoint of that same move comes in at $80.15. In trading

US Senate Leader Schumer is on the wires saying: TikTok has too many security risks that cannot be ignored. More times the defined an American buyer. Will continue to find a responsible solution to keep TikTok going, it should survive new ownership. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Chinese data is here: China December: Retail sales +3.7% y/y (exp +3.5%) Industrial output +6.2% y/y (exp +5.4%) The yuan has gained ground against the USD: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD started the day today testing the high from yesterday at 0.6257 and finding willing selllers. The double-top increases the levels importance today and going forward. If the buyers are to take more control, getting and staying above that level is required. Meanwhile, seller may continue to look to keep a lid on the

Microsoft says it is upping US cosumer Office by $3/month. Looking at the current pricing of $9.99 per month for Microsoft 365 (which, that is a pretty hefty increase. Shares are This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A Bloomberg (gated) report. The main points are Trump plans to designate cryotpcurrency as a national priority an “executive order expected to create a crypto advisory council” “stopping federal crypto litigation” Its no secret that Trump is seen as a positive for crypto. Prices surged after the election. BTC has since gyrated around $100K: This

THe USDCHF felll sharply after yesterday’s US CPI and in the process fell below its 200 hour moving average (green line on the chart below currently at 0.9119). However, the momentum could not be sustained, and a snapback rally ensued with the price moving back to and through the 200-hour moving average and up to

We get the 2024 Q4 data today: Economic calendar in Asia 17 January 2025 – December and Q4 data due from China Meanwhile, China Securities Times has surveyed economists: forecast 2025 GDP growth of at least 4.8% Of course, if you are an economist in China you have to be careful not to offend, Via

Says that over the last several months become more comfortable that this is a stabilization of the job market at a full-employment-like level, as opposed to something that was crashing through normal and turning into something worse Sees less deterioration in a broad basket of labor-market indicators. Thinks the trends from last summer look less

Wells Fargo has adjusted its outlook for Federal Reserve policy, citing stronger-than-expected labor market data in recent months. Analysts at the bank now anticipate two 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2025 one in September and another in December down from its previous projection of three cuts at the start

BOC Deputy Gov. Gravelle is speaking and says: A Trump tariff on exports would have a big negative impact on economic growth. There would likely be an inflation impact at the same time that we have a slowdown in the economy, so that puts a central bank in a very complicated space. We’ve lost roughly

The latest Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Another blockbuster Employment 56.3k !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! expected +15.0k, prior +35.6.1k Unemployment Rate 4.0% expected 4.0%, prior 3.9% Participation Rate 67.1% expected 67.0%, prior 67.0% Full Time Employment -23.7k (part time 80K (prior -17K) ) prior +52.6k A huge headline number for the jobs added of

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong is set to hold a press conference at approximately 0210 GMT. The backdrop to this: South Korea’s central bank surprised markets on Thursday by keeping its policy interest rate steady, as it assessed the effects of last year’s consecutive rate cuts and aimed to bolster the won, which has

US treasury secretary nominee Bessent is speaking at the US confirmation hearing and says: US government has significant spending problem Will revive the American economy through progrowth regulatory policies, reducing taxes, unleashing American energy. If Trump 2017 tax cuts are not renewed, US will face economic calamity We will see a gigantic middle-class tax increases

Japan: BoJ Gov Ueda says will raise policy rate if economic, price conditions continue to improve Expectations are that Japan will intervene in the currency market if the yen falls to 165 Recapping Japan’s wholesale inflation data earlier – helping to fuel rate hike chatter USD/JPY back under 156.00 Japan December PPI +0.3% m/m (expected

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 increases to 3.0% from 2.7% in its last report. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 16, up from 2.7 percent on January 9. After recent releases

The US futures are implying a mixed open for the major indices. A snapshot currently shows: Dow industrial average -5.55 points S&P index up 13.59 points NASDAQ index +91 points Looking at some of the earnings releases this morning showed: Morgan Stanley (MS) Q4 2024: EPS $2.22 (BEAT; exp. $1.70), Revenue $16.2B (BEAT; exp. $15.03B).

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a striking contrast in sector performances. The technology sector shows signs of strength, with notable gains, while the auto manufacturing sector experiences marked declines. 📈 Technology: Leading the charge in technology is Broadcom (AVGO), boasting a significant rise of 3.93%. Key players like Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA)

BOC expects to announce and of quantitative tightening in first half of 2025 we will need to restart our normal course of asset purchases gradually and well before September. We will not be ending QT out of any concern about functioning of rebar markets. We will not be buying assets on any active basis to

Short Trade Idea for Micro Gold Futures (MGC) – January 16, 2025 Trade Setup: This short trade idea on Micro Gold Futures (MGC), curently trading at apx $2740 anticipates a reversal in the range of $2,748-$2,760, a key psychological resistance area, with a total of 30 contracts distributed across three scaling sell orders. The trade

The New York Times reporting that President-elect Trump is considering an executive order to circumvent the TIcTok ban. The order would allow TicTok to continue to operate until a new owner is found. The Supreme Court is poised to decide on a federal law mandating TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app by

December inflation data was very good looking at 12 month indicators it does not look like we’ve made a lot of progress on inflation if numbers continue like this is reasonable to think rate cuts could come in H1 6 of 8 months have been on target and reasonable to think that trend will continue

The major European indices are closing the day mostly higher. The exception is Spain’s Ibex. France’s CAC have performed with a gain over 2%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX +0.29% France’s CAC +2.14% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.09% Spain’s Ibex -0.49% As London/European traders look toward the exits, US stocks are trading

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures Analysis (BTC1!) – January 16, 2025 Current Context: Current Price: $99,860 Bearish Threshold: $100,415 Bitcoin is trading below this level, confirming a bearish bias. Bullish Threshold: $100,910 If the price rises above this level, the bias will turn bullish. Trade Scenarios for Bitcoin Futures: Bearish Setup: Entry Points: Traders seeking short

Japan’s wholesale inflation remained at 3.8% in December 2024, driven primarily by high food prices, particularly a 31.8% increase in agricultural goods costs. Japan December PPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.4%) 3.8% y/y (expected 3.8%) The steady inflation rate, which matched market expectations, was also influenced by rising fuel costs due to the removal of government

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been rallying steadily this week thanks to positive news both on the tariffs and inflation front. On Monday, we got a news from Bloomberg that the Trump’s team was studying gradual tariffs hikes. On Tuesday, we got a very soft US PPI report and yesterday lower than expected US Core

Prior -0.1% Services +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior 0.0%; revised to -0.1% Industrial output -0.4% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.6% Manufacturing output -0.3% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.6% Construction output +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.3% The marginal growth was led by a slight growth in the services

More from the Bank of Korea after the surprise rate decision earlier: Bank of Korea leaves rate unchanged at 3% vs. cut to 2.75% expected BOK plans to expand the cap on temporary special loans for small and medium businesses to 14 trillion won.BOK will determine the timing and pace of further base rate cuts

TradeCompass for Ethereum Futures Analysis (January 2025 Contract) – January 16, 2025 Current Context: Current Price: $3,376.5 Bullish Threshold: $3,395 Aligned with today’s developing VWAP; price above this level signals bullish momentum. Bearish Threshold: $3,363.5 Aligned with yesterday’s VWAP; price below this level indicates bearish sentiment. Trade Scenarios for Ethereum Futures: Bearish Setup: Stop-Loss: Place

The USDCAD moved lower again yesterday but when the price tested a swing area between 1.42969 and 1.4304, sellers turned the buyers once again and the price bounced higher (see renumbered circles and low of red box on the chart below). In trading today, the price has continued its move to the upside and has

Prior month import prices 0.1% US import prices Y/Y 2.2% vs 1.3% prior US export prices M/M 0.3% vs 0.2% expected and 0.0% prior US export prices Y/Y 1.8% vs 0.8% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is posting a slight double-top from the overnight high around 0.6245 and that is leading to a reversal in the past few hours. The fall now threatens a break below its 200-hour moving average (blue line). And in doing so, that will see the near-term bias switch back to being more neutral again.

Prior month 0.1% Business inventories for November 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate Sales: Combined distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November were $1,893.1 billion, up 0.5% (±0.2%) from October 2024 and 2.5% (±0.4%) from November 2023. Inventories/Sales Ratio: The inventories/sales ratio for November was 1.37, unchanged from November 2023. This article was written by Greg

European Central Bank governing council member and Portugal central bank governor Mario Centeno: says interest rate will continue on a trajectory ideally towards values close to 2% Not sure where he is speaking, info via Reuters. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar keeps more mixed on the session thus far AUD/USD erases post-CPI advance as sellers wrestle back some near-term control What are the main events for today? Germany December final CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/ prelim Italy December final CPI +1.3% vs +1.4% y/y prelim UK November monthly GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected

Japan Producer Prices, December 2024 +0.3% m/m expected +0.4%, prior 0.3% 3.8% y/y expected 3.8%, prior 3.7% — USD/JPY has dribbled off a few tics. The data is not unsupportive of a rate hike from the BoJ next week (January 23 and 24 meeting). Earlier: ICYMI: Nomura are now forecasting a Bank of Japan (BoJ)

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to rely on the same factors from yesterday with a keen focus towards US data once again. Coming up later today, we will have the retail sales data and weekly jobless claims to work with. That will

German DAX futures flat French CAC 40 futures +0.5% UK FTSE futures +0.3% This comes with US futures also marked higher after the gains yesterday. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with Nasdaq futures up 0.3% currently. The S&P 500 index itself was called into question on Monday but dip buyers looked to have survived

Prior month 0.7% revised to 0.8% Retail sales headline 0.4% versus 0.6% estimate Control group 0.7% vs 0.4% estimate. Prior month 0.4% Core retail sales ex auto 0.4% vs 0.5% estimate. Last month 0.2% Ex auto and gas 0.3% vs 0.2% last month. More details from the Census Total sales in December 2024 were $729.2

US retail sales will be released with the initial jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing at the bottom of the hour. Retail sales are expected to show a 0.6% gain vs 0.7% last month. The core is expected at 0.5% vs 0.2 % last month. Initial jobless claims are expected at 210K vs 201K last

Fundamental Overview Gold is slowly edging towards the key 2721 resistance as the softer than expected US inflation data this week gave the necessary support to push into new highs. Following the slightly lower than expected US Core CPI yesterday, we saw a big fall in real yields which should support gold for further upside

Prior month 46 NAHB housing market index 47 versus 45 estimate Robert Diaz, Chief economist said: “While ongoing, but slower easing from the Federal Reserve should help financing for private builders currently squeezed out of some local markets, builders report cancellations are climbing as a direct result of mortgage rates rising back up near 7%.”

TradeCompass for Nasdaq Futures (NQ, March 2025 Contract) – January 16, 2025 Current Context: Current Price: 21,4492 (1 minute before the market opens). Activation Level: 21,640 This TradeCompass becomes active only if NQ reaches 21,640. Below this level, no directional bias is established. Defined Range: Bullish Threshold: 21,681 Above this level, the bias turns bullish.

Members were increasingly confident that inflation would return to target in 1H 2025 A gradual dialing back of policy restrictiveness would be appropriate if baseline projection for inflation is confirmed over the next few months and quarters There are still many upside and downside risks to inflation outlook, so should not let its guard down

For oil traders, keeping track of the ebbs and flows on this ceasefire is important. It looks like some back tracking going on, which should be a tailwind for oil, at the margin. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Hamas opposed a clause that would allow Israel to block the release of certain Palestinian prisoners,

Bank of Korea leaves rate unchanged at 3% vs. cut to 2.75% expected more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been rallying steadily this week thanks to positive news both on the tariffs and inflation front. On Monday, we got a news from Bloomberg that the Trump’s team was studying gradual tariffs hikes. On Tuesday, we got a very soft US PPI report and yesterday lower than expected US

TradeCompass: Canadian Dollar Futures (6C, March 2025 Contract) – 16 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Canadian Dollar Futures (6C, March 2025) Price at the Time of Analysis: 0.69740 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Canadian Dollar Futures Today Bullish Above: 0.69935 Why Bullish Above:A move above 0.69935 would place the price above yesterday’s Point of Control

Prior month -16.4 Manufacturing index for the month of December 44.3 vs -5.2 estimate. The highest level since April 2021 Details: The diffusion index for current general activity rose from -10.9 in December to 44.3 in January, the highest since April 2021, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2020. 51% of firms reported increased

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The main concern here is that core annual inflation crept higher to 3.3% in December, up from 3.0% in November. That raises stagflation worries for the German economy at the turn of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda BOJ would raise the policy rate this year if economic and price conditions continue to improve. He also noted that the approach to monetary policy adjustments will depend on prevailing economic, price, and financial conditions at the time. Ueda highlighted that the policy outlook of the new U.S. administration and

The retail sales control group (feeds into GDP) and Philly Fed Manufacturing index were stronger than expected and that helped to push the EURUSD and the GBPUSD lower (higher USD) but only modestly.The US initial jobless claims saw rebounded higher but remains close to the lower end of the recent range. The EURUSD moved down

Initial Jobless Claims 217K vs 210K expected and 201K prior (revised to 203K) Continuing Claims 1859M vs 1.871M expected and 1.867M prior (revised to 1.877M) The labour market remains in good shape based on weekly claims data which has been a great barometer for the past two years. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

Info via Reuters citing an unnamed source: Canada could impose countermeasures on up to C$150 billion worth of imports from the U.S. if the Trump administration imposes tariffs on Canadian imports. It won’t necessarily impose the countermeasures; it would carry out public consultations first. Proposed Canadian countermeasures would be divided into three groups; Florida orange

The major stock indices cheered on the combined PPI and CPI data with sharp gains in the major indices. The NASDAQ index snapped its five day losing streak (-4.13%). The gain today retraced over half of that decline and had its best day since November 6 (post election day). The S&P index also had its

The Australian labour market has been resilient and growth in jobs is expected in the December data due today. I’ll have more to come on this separately. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’

TradeCompass for AUD Futures Analysis (6A, March 2025 Contract) – January 17, 2025 Current Context: Current Price: 0.6213 Bullish Threshold: 0.62370 This level is just above today’s highest VWAP point and slightly above the 1st upper standard deviation of yesterday’s VWAP. Bearish Threshold: 0.62175 The price is currently trading just below this level, confirming a

Below is a summary of the Overall activity and by district. A key and oft repeated word is “slight” or “moderate”. Not to hot. Not to cold. There were 23 mentions of tariffs and 9 mentions of immigration. Overall Economic Activity: Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late

Earlier: Bank of Korea leaves rate unchanged at 3% vs. cut to 2.75% expected BOK plans to expand the cap on temporary special loans for small and medium businesses Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong press conference no: decision was not unanimous need for further rate cuts is higher now that the downside risk to

Prior €6.8 billion Here’s the breakdown of the non-seasonally adjusted trade data: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is reported that Chinese officials are trying to pave the way for local automakers to purchase German factories that are slated for closure. In particular, they are rather interested in Volkswagen’s sites and another source said that the German automaker would be open to selling its Osnabrück factory to a Chinese buyer. The move

1745 GMT/1245 Eastern time Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle Will speak on the Bank’s balance sheet normalization process and how it will manage its balance sheet once normalization ends *** The Bank of Canada began cutting rates in 2024, beginning in June. Read from the bottom up for the progression of cuts December

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been rallying steadily this week thanks to positive news both on the tariffs and inflation front. On Monday, we got a news from Bloomberg that the Trump’s team was studying gradual tariffs hikes. On Tuesday, we got a very soft US PPI report and yesterday lower than expected US

The European session is going to be pretty empty on the data front with no market moving releases. The main events will be all in the American session when we will get a few US economic indicators and Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing before Senate at 15:30 GMT/10:30 ET. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US Jobless Claims

Via Rabobanbk analyst Foley on the Australian dollar, in brief. AUD could weaken a little in the months ahead, Rabo says the risk is AUD/USD dropping to 0.60 by the the middle of this year. Citing: a firm US dollar headwinds due to China’s economy Also notes potentially rising political uncertainty ahead of Australia’s federal

A Reuters poll shows that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise the key interest rate to 0.50% by the end of March, with 59 out of 61 economists in agreement. nearly two-thirds of 32 economists believe the BOJ will hike interest rates on January 24 with the remainder expecting a hike later Two-thirds

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board yesterday following the softer than expected US Core CPI data as Treasury yields fell aggressively in what could be the peak in inflation hysteria and repricing in rate cuts expectations. Strangely enough, the US Dollar eventually erased all the losses and ended the day pretty much flat

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The latest employment report just published in Australia: Australia December 2024 unemployment rate 4.0% (vs. 4.0% expected) continued to show a resilient and tight labour market. Interest rate trading is now pricing around a 75% chance of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on February 18. All eyes will be on

Nomura assessed Ueda’s comments from Wednesday as being enough to shift their forecast for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike from March to January. The BoJ meet on January 23 and 24. Nomura also shifted its forecast for the following BoJ rate hike to July, from ocot previously. ICYMI, Ueda’s comments sent the yen

The dollar is keeping steadier and a little firmer against the major currencies bloc but only with one exception again. And that is against the Japanese yen. Falling Treasury yields in response to the US CPI report yesterday drove USD/JPY lower but also as traders look to be stepping up expectations for a BOJ rate

UBS forecast USD/CNY to reach 7.5 by June this year: while growth is expected to accelerate in China, effective tariff rates could rise dramatically and be a headwind CNY has only partially priced in this On the other side, UBS see continued US dollar strength. US activity likely to stay robust, economic data is likely

This anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe is at the request of China’s mature node chip industry. It’s a slight retaliation against the recent measures by the US in trying to further curb China’s access to chips here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass: Russell 2000 Index Futures Analysis – 16 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Russell 2000 Index Futures (RUT Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 2279.3 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Russell 2000 Futures Today Bullish Above: 2291.3 Why Bullish Above:If Russell 2000 Futures rise above 2291.3, the price will surpass yesterday’s Value Area High