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Reuters covered the report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), with such news as: global growth will slow in 2025offshore investors are set to cut the cash they send to emerging markets by nearly a quarter A little further into the piece is this stark news from China: shift is hitting China the hardestemerging

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% It’s a decent start but it is very much early in the day. The ECB decision might be a straightforward one but investors will still look to that for some assertion later in the day. Elsewhere, US futures are a little

Exports are also weekFirms are holding back investmentSurveys point to fewer jobs being created in the current quarterThe economy should strengthen over time, though slower than previously assumedProvided trade tensions do not escalate, exports should support the recoveryIt is crucial to swiftly follow up with concrete proposals to enhance competitivenessUnderlying inflation is overall developing in

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.00% vs 3.00% expectedPrior 3.25%Main refinancing rate 3.15% vs 3.15% expectedPrior 3.40%Marginal lending facility %Prior 3.65%Disinflation process is well on trackMost measures of underlying inflation suggest that it will settle at around 2% target on a sustained basisDomestic inflation has edged down but remains high, mostly due to wages and prices

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report yesterday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities standing around 97%. Overall, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This contributed to some US Dollar weakness although we are still consolidating around

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) monthly house price gauge to +25 in November, its highest level since September 2022from +16 in October Reuters add comments: “Although the latest survey results continue to signal a steady improvement in buyer demand across the residential market, the broader macro environment is likely to pose additional headwinds moving

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision: Selic Interest Rate hiked to 12.25% prior 11.25%expected hike was to 12.0%The decision was unanimous.In light of a more adverse scenario for inflation convergence, the committee anticipates further adjustments of the same magnitude in the next two meetings.The total magnitude of the tightening cycle will be

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the technical levels that are driving the three major currency pairs and explain, and show why. In the video I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today is likely to be the busiest day of the month as we have two central bank decisions and a couple of top tier US data releases. After today, we will conclude with the FOMC rate decision next Wednesday and then we go into the Christmas holidays lull. 08:30 GMT – SNB Policy Decision The

SNB doesn’t like negative rates but they do work.SNB will use negative rates again if it has to.Negative rates did lessen the franc’s attractiveness. SNB looks at the whole franc situation, not just the euro. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The European Central Bank has trimmed its inflation forecasts while maintaining a cautious outlook on growth, according to its latest economic projections released today. The latest projections suggest the ECB’s fight against inflation is making progress, though the path to its 2% target remains gradual. The muted growth outlook could add pressure for rate cuts

I tend to think that China is underestimated, both in the short and long term. There is a narrative out there that China is ‘struggling’ and that stimulus is long overdue but the facts don’t exactly bear that out. Chinese GDP is still growing at a nearly 5% pace, which is the envy of the

Chinese economy still faces many difficulties and challengesNeed to treat difficulties properly and affirm confidenceUnfavourable impact brought by external environment has become severeWill deepen reforms and pursue high quality development in 2025Will expand domestic demandMust coordinate relationship between overall supply and demandWill implement more proactive macro policiesWill implement cuts to interest rates and reserve requirement

Pantheon is seeing the Core PCE data to show a rise of 0.13% (rounded to 0.1%) from 0.2% last month. The YoY is probably unchanged at 2.8%. However, they say it will plummet in the 1Q of next year. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level. That should help to keep price action more limited ahead of the ECB policy decision later in the day. But from a technical perspective, the pair is pinned

The price of gold is moving higher and near highs for the day. The price is up $24.61 or 0.92% at $2718.36. The high for the day has reached $2721.16. The move higher is up testing the high from November 25 which peaked at $2721.41 jut above the high for the day. Get above that

Inflation has converged toward 2% for six projections in a row, at some point in the course of 2025Past shocks have pushed inflation downProductivity we are seeing more-promising signsWe have not discussed neutral rate level in meetingI don’t think about market pricing of rate hikesRisk to inflation is now two-sidedThe direction of travel (on rates)

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report yesterday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities standing around 97%. The S&P 500 rallied strongly as there were fears of potentially higher than expected data and the hedges into the CPI release got unwound. Overall, the market’s pricing remains

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +2.4% (revised to +2.6%)PPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% expectedPPI ex food and energy +3.4% y/y vs +3.2% expected (3.1% prior revised to +3.4%)PPI ex food and energy +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (+0.3% prior)Ex food, energy and trade +3.5% y/y vs +3.5% prior This is one of the 5 reports that Fed Governor

All 71 economists poll expect BOE to keep bank rate unchanged at 4.75% next weekBOE expected to cut bank rate by 100 bps in 2025, likely by 25 bps each quarter19 of 23 economists expect US to put less than 10% tariffs on UK imports20 of 25 economists note that tariffs will have an insignificant

With that we can influence the economy and exchange rateThere is still room for further rate cutsWe are also ready to intervene in the FX market if necessaryThis step is intended to stabilise inflation between 0% and 2% Schlegel is mainly clarifying that the change in wording today doesn’t mean that rate cuts are off

The USDCAD moved lower after the Bank of Canada rate decision as the reaction was it was more of a hawkish cut. BOCs Macklem during his press conference said that they discussed both 25 and 50 basis point rate cuts before ultimately deciding on a 50 bps reduction. That the decision was driven by two

A note from BMO on the US CPI data, with analysts there saying the November core CPI gain of 0.308% has solidified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but persistent inflationary pressures suggest a slower pace of easing in 2025. Four consecutive monthly gains of 0.3% in the core index have driven

Prior month +11.5Building permits -3.1% vs -5.0% est Further details Total value of building permits in Canada decreased by $399.1 million (-3.1%) to $12.6 billion in October.Despite the decline, the October’s total value was the fourth-highest level in the series.September saw a $1.3 billion rise in construction intentions, the second-highest level in the series.Ontario’s construction

🚀 Crypto Market Soars as Bitcoin Breaches $100K. Again 🌟 The cryptocurrency market has seen a powerful surge in the past 24 hours, leaving traders and investors buzzing with excitement. With several major coins making strong moves, the momentum feels unstoppable. Let’s dive into the key highlights: 🏆 Bitcoin (BTC): Still Strong. Still 6 Digits.

BofA expects the ECB to cut rates by 25bps at its December meeting, fully in line with market pricing, and to continue easing until the deposit rate reaches 1.5% by September 2025. Despite a meeting-by-meeting approach, BofA foresees a directional bias toward further easing. The EUR faces modest downside risks, particularly against the JPY, USD,

A snippet only from Deutsche Bank, remaining bullish on the US dollar: dollar likely to remain strong versus the euroFed faces a tougher battle against inflation than the ECBforward-looking US indicators point to lasting inflationary pressuresimmigration to the US is falling, even before Trump policies, choking a “positive supply shock [that] played a dominant role

The wide range reflects the major uncertainty surrounding Germany at the moment, not least with the recent political issues. Ifo notes that if Germany fails to overcome structural challenges, then the economy will grow by only 0.4% next year. But if the right economic policy is adopted, then it can achieve growth of up to

Reuters published a piece on China is allowing the yuan to weaken next year to address higher tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. The article is gated, but this snippet from HSBC sounds warning bells. Currency adjustments are on the table as a tool to be used to mitigate the effects of tariffs.It’s tempting to

Prior 1.00%Prepared to intervene in FX market as necessaryUnderlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarterUncertainty on the economic outlook has increased in recent monthsForecast for Switzerland and global economy is subject to significant uncertaintyWill continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust monetary policy as necessarySees 2024 Swiss economic growth at around 1.0% (unchanged)Sees

ForexLive.com’s AI predictor, renowned for its order flow analysis and ongoing machine learning, provides a scoring system designed to simplify market interpretation for traders and investors. Scores range from -10 (extremely bearish) to +10 (extremely bullish), with zero indicating a market that is neutral or indecisive. Currently, the AI has assigned a score of +1

Data post is here: Australia November unemployment rate 3.9% (vs. 4.2% expected)… did a double take on that it took me a few moments to slot that 3.9 figure into the headline and then to actually hit ‘publish’ … I was not expecting such a strong surprise (yeah, I know … if I was expecting

KAST, a financial technology platform built on stablecoins to deliver a neobank-style experience, has raised US$10 million in seed funding. The round is led by HSG (HongShan Capital Group) and Peak XV Partners. A number of high-profile angels, partners of DST Global, and Goodwater Capital also joined the round. “For most countries and over half

French President Emmanuel Macron is set to appoint a new prime minister on Thursday according to government sources and reported by Bloombert. Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s was ousted last Wednesday. The discussions have excluded the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, and the hard-left France Unbowed, headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, as Macron has

If there’s any consolation to the Swiss franc, it is that while analysts were expecting a 25 bps rate cut, it wasn’t so much so the case with market pricing. The rates market showed that traders were anticipating a ~58% probability of a 50 bps rate cut with the remainder tied to a 25 bps

The likelihood of negative interest rates has become smallIf required, we will adjust rates at the March meeting Well, maybe not quite NIRP but they’re pretty much just a couple of steps away from ZIRP at the very least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures marginally lower by 0.1% currently. Equities had a good showing yesterday after the US CPI report vindicated a Fed rate cut for next week. Next up today, we’ll have the SNB and ECB. The latter is likely

Fundamental Overview The US CPI report yesterday came in line with expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities standing around 97%. Overall, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This contributed to some US Dollar weakness although we are still consolidating around

This is from Reuters, citing five sources familiar with the Japanese central bank’s thinking. The sources said that there is no clear consensus yet on the decision for December. That considering some policymakers feel that the conditions are right to continue with another rate hike. But at the balance, many policymakers are thinking that they

CBS with the report that Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration next month Trump said he communicated with XI recently Bloomberg add some opinion: The invitation signals an effort by Trump to court his Chinese counterpart on the heels of threats of fresh tariffs against the world’s second-largest economy AUD/USD

A Fed rate cut next week is all but a given now after the US CPI report here. But before we get to that, the central bank bonanza will be making a couple of stops in Europe following the Bank of Canada decision yesterday. The SNB and ECB are the two main events to watch

We get the data for Australia’s jobs markets for November 2024 today. Due at 11.30 am Sydney time 0030 GMT and 1930 US Eastern time Australia’s labour report improved in October. The report showed signs of job market resilience amid a gradual economic slowdown. Employment increased by 15,900 positions, predominantly in full-time roles, marking a

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), speaking at the University of Adelaide (SACES) Luncheon, Adelaide on Friday, December 13, 2024’at 12.30 pm Sydney time 0130 GMT2030 US Eastern time (on Thursday) I haven’t got a topic for this. It’ll be helpful if Hunter has anything to say on today’s shoch jobs report: Australia November unemployment rate

US rates much higher than those in China. Outlooks for the two economies differ markedly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China to expand its private pension plan nationwide – from Monday December 15. Caixin had a heads up on this: China is poised to roll out a private retirement account program nationwide after nearly two years of trials in select cities and regions. The move comes as the country intensifies efforts to establish a personal

Goldman Sachs: We think the Bank of Japan has not yet reached a situation where it can judge that it has sufficient confidence in the outlookUnder these circumstances, we expect the BoJ to maintain its policy rate at 0.25% at the December 18 – 19 Monetary Policy meeting GS’s base case is for a January

Earlier re China: In 2024, China saw its first outflow of foreign direct investment in decades What the market misunderstands about China *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also

Summarising the findings. Concerns About Trump Presidency: Nearly 75% of Japanese companies expect Donald Trump’s next term as U.S. president to negatively impact the business environment.Key concerns include planned tariff hikes and heightened U.S.-China trade tensions. Impact of Tariff Hikes: Trump has threatened tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports, with initial tariffs projected to range

Huge improvement in the Australian jobs data may be a ‘head fake’Fed faces a tougher battle against inflation than the ECB: US$ to stay stronger than EURGoldman Sachs expect the Bank of Japan to remain on hold at 0.25% at the December meetingChina to expand its private pension plan nationwide – from Monday December 15PBoC-backed

CBA: The labour market data, coupled with the decline in wages growth,supports ourview that the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is comfortably below the RBA’s implied estimate of 4.5%.But the labour market data today does not strengthen the case for a February RBA rate cut(indeed it weakens it). Notwithstanding we stick with our call

In Chinese financial media, the PBOC-affiliated Financial News, a report saying: says that the yuan is on solid footing and will stay balancedunnamed experts are cited for the opinion Further said the possibility of the dollar weakening is increasing in line with the odds of the Fed cutting rates in Decemberyuan exchange rate will most

There is plenty of seasonality in monthly budget numbers but this is the largest deficit since August and compares to a deficit of $314 billion last November. The Treasury said calendar adjustments for benefit payments boosted outlays by some $80B compared to the same month in 2023 There are no easy fixes here but Americans

In-line CPI report leads to a blockbuster day for US stock marketsWhat the market misunderstands about ChinaGold moves up to test swing level from last week of November. Crude oil higher as well.US November federal budget deficit 367B vs 353B expectedBofA: What we expect from the November ECB meeting and the EUR reactionUS sells 10-year

A strong rise in global equities and the potential for China stimulus in the next 48 hours has lifted oil prices. Today’s US CPI report has led to a 1.8% rally in the Nasdaq as AI fever returns. The potential for Fed and PBOC rate cuts also speaks to improving prospects for global growth and

Bitwise Asset Management has released its 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025. Info CIA CoinDesk. Included in the projections: all major cryptocurrencies will see new record highs (BTC to US$200,000, ETH to $7,000, Solana to $750even bigger ETF inflows for BTC than in 2024potential bitcoin arms race — kicked off by U.S. politicians’ plans to constitute

The latest Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, for November 2024 Just … wow. Employment +35.6k expected +25.0k, prior +15.9.1k Unemployment Rate 3.9% expected 4.2%, prior 4.1% Participation Rate 67.0% expected 67.1%, prior 67.1% Full Time Employment +52.6k (part time is down 17K from October +6.2K) prior +9.7k The October report was

What’s better than a solid economy and a dovish Fed that still has plenty of ammunition to lower rates? Not much, evidently. US stocks powered ahead on Wednesday after CPI inflation data matched estimates. The numbers were good enough to convince the market that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. There may be

New Zealand Card Retail Sales – for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. In November -2.3% y/y prior -1.1% For the mm/m, no change (ie 0% m/m) prior revised to +0.7% m/m (from +0.6) ** Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as

The $39 billion reopening of 10-year notes was a strong one today, stopping through by 1.6 bps. The bid to cover was 2.7x vs 2.54x on average in the past 10 sales. Direct bids were high at 19.5% compared to 15% on average while the dealer bid was light. Yields and the US dollar ticked

The initial reaction after the US CPI data was toward a lower dollar, but we are seeing a rotation back higher. Prices are back near premarket levels currently. US stocks moved to the upside. The futures are now implying: Dow up 86 pointsS&P index of 24 pointsNASDAQ index up 122 points Owners equivalent rent rose

At the top of the hour, the US treasury will auction off $39 billion of 10-year notes. It is the second of three coupon auctions this week. Tomorrow the treasury will auction off 30-year bonds. The three-year note auction yesterday was met with average demand with domestic buyers marginally higher than their six-month average and

Headline CPI: Prior was +2.7% y/ym/m reading at +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded 0.3130% vs 0.2441% prior Core measures: Core CPI 3.3% vs +3.3% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedCore unrounded +0.308% vs +0.2800% m/m priorReal weekly earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Core services ex shelter +0.3% vs +0.3% priorCore-CPI services ex-rent/OER +% vs

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, asked about ongoing Chinese military activities around Taiwan: China’s Taiwan Affairs Office stated that they will take necessary measures to resolutely defend the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and safeguard the peace and stability of the Taiwan Straits.China’s Taiwan Affairs Office stated that they will never take a wait-and-see approach to

Fundamental Overview Gold broke out of the consolidation and rallied into an important resistance around the 2700 level. In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts expectations. Today might be one of those days as we

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

AMD Stock buy the dip plan (this is an opinion for long term investors, do your own research) Key Disclaimers This is not a price projection:The price might not necessarily reach our defined buy zone. This plan outlines a structured approach for buy-and-hold investors if the price does get there. Trade at your own risk:This

Prior +2.8%Market index 225.5 vs 213.9 priorPurchase index 154.9 vs 161.5 priorRefinance index 634.0 vs 498.5 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.67% vs 6.69% prior There’s a bit of a caveat to the latest jump in mortgage applications in the past week. Purchase activity declined but that was more than offset by a huge surge in refinancing

Gold has been valued for its stability when the financial fires are raging. That stable nature was underscored in 2024 when its price shot upward, gaining over $700 per ounce. This amounted to a 34% increase since January. The vibrant price increase has gotten traders and investors all jazzed up again about gold, with the

We discussed both 25 and 50 bpsThere are some mixed signals in the economic dataWe cut by 50 bps for 2 reasons: 1) We no longer need policy that’s clearly in restrictive territory. 2) All the data tilts towards a softer economic outlook for GDP growth compared to October estimates This article was written by

As London/European traders look to exit for the day, the US stock indices are trading higher. The broader S&P and NASDAQ index are making new session high. For the S&P index is up 51.24 points or 0.85% at 6086.27. For the NASDAQ index is up 314 points or 1.60% and breaking through the 20,000 level.

The latest outlook, in brief, from the Asian Development bank. Growth Forecast Downgraded: ADB lowers 2024 growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.9% (from 5.0%).2025 growth forecast reduced to 4.8% (from 4.9%). Key Drivers of Downgrade: Weaker-than-expected economic performance in Q3 across some economies.Softer outlook for consumption in the region. Country-Specific Projections: China: Growth forecasts

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points but the statement no longer contains explicit guidance towards rate cuts. The opening statement from the press conference has already been published but there will be a Q&A afterwards. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Below is the full text of the Bank of Canada interest rate statement: The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is evolving largely

The USDJPY continues to keep both buyers and sellers engaged in a tug-of-war. Following the CPI data release, the price dropped from just above the 200-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart at 153.79 to briefly break below the converged 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 200-day MA. However, neither of these

As the North American session begins, the US indices in pre-market are modestly higher led by the Nasdaq. Dow up 7 piointS&P up 8.59 pointsNasdaq up 43 points Yesterday, the indices all fell. US yields are higher for the 3rd day in a row: 2 year 4.169%, up 2.1 bps5 year 4.119%, up 2.3 bps10

Gasoline +5086K vs +1664K expDistillates +3235K vs +1373K expRefinery utilization -0.9% vs -0.5% exp Don’t led the headline fool you, those product builds are negative. That said, they were flagged in the private inventory data released late yesterday that showed: Crude +499KGasoline +2852KDistillates +2452K WTI was strong ahead of the report, up 99 cents to

The AUDUSD hit a new low today, dipping into a key swing area between 0.6334 and 0.6363 on the daily chart. This zone has been significant since November 2023, marked by three distinct lows. The price reached 0.6336, just above the lower boundary of this floor (see red numbered circles on the chart below). Buyers

Goldman Sachs says the dip for gold was just a blip, its going higher. GS cite: easing monetary policycentral bank buyinginvestor buying More: “Since 2022, gold prices have surged 40% even as US interest rates were climbing … That is very strange. Typically, higher interest rates make gold less attractive – because gold doesn’t pay

Gold is now up $16 on the day to $2710, which is the highest since November 24. It’s also the third day of gains since the PBOC revealed it had resumed buying gold reserves for the first time in six months. Gold is now up $75 since the news of the resumption of purchases. Aiding

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

📈 Technology and Semiconductor Surge: A Market Overview Today’s market paints a mixed picture with standout performances in the technology and semiconductor sectors. Broadcom (AVGO) leads the pack with an impressive gain of 3.26%, and Nvidia (NVDA) follows with a 1.59% increase, suggesting renewed investor confidence in these industries. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: Microsoft (MSFT)

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.4%France CAC +0.4%%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain IBEX -1.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Via Twitter: Expectations for change I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.9 mn barrelsDistillates +1.4 mn bblsGasoline +1.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

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Prior rate was 3.75% after 50 bps on October 23Economists widely expected a 50 basis point rate cutThe market was pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cutPrior statement said ” If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further” USD/CAD was trading at

The EURUSD spiked higher after the CPI data but respected the 200 hour MA for the 2nd time today. In the kickstart video, I outlined how the price needed to get above the cluster of MAs to increase the bullish bias. That was not done. Sellers leaned. The price moved back down. The selling has

The battle over $100,000 continues for bitcoin. Sellers took over yesterday on (irrational?) fears of a quantum computing breakthough that could crack bitcoin’s encryption in the future. However those fears have ebbed today in broad rally in risk assets following a subdued US inflation report. There is a broad rally in risk assets, including a

Crude oil futures are settling at $68.59. That is up $0.22 or 0.32%. The high price for the day extended to $69.02. The low price was at $67.74. Looking at the hourly chart, the price tried to stay below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below), but pushed higher in the US

Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1330 GMT): For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US November CPI data due Wednesday, ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Distribution of forecasts for the US CPI **** But,

The major US stock indices are opening higher with expectations of a 25 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting next Wednesday. CPI data this morning came in as expected for both the headline and the core measures. The A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average up 66.91 points or 0.15%

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The data needs to come in line with our forecasts to change policy He’s not beating the allegations here that they still might move in February. So, this just mainly echoes sentiment from Bullock yesterday. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Details are sparse – Japan media report. Kyodo. This doesn’t sound like a vote winner. Japanese firms looking at: weak yen pushing up imported raw material and energy costshigher PPI more generallywage demandsweak consumer demandlikely rate hikes And now higher tax? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Canada interest rate decision will be announced at 9:45 AM with the expectations of a 50 basis point cut in rates. Adam outlines the fundamental view in his post here: In my video below, I analyze the key technical levels influencing the USDCAD rate decision. With the pair trading near four-year highs

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.61 mil bpd (previously 1.82 mil bpd)2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.45 mil bpd (previously 1.54 mil bpd) On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in Q3 while the projections for next year relate

CNBC with the report: “As the President said on Sunday, and I’m in complete agreement with him, that Jay Powell will serve out his term,” Bessent told CNBC This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here is how it’s looking ahead of the open: S&P 500 futures +0.43% NASDAQ futures +0.67% Russell 2000 futures +0.72% Dow futures +0.21% Virtually all the gains in stock futures came after today’s US CPI report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The main events of the week for both the US and Canada are coming up today. First is the US CPI report at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT) and it comes with the market pricing in an 85% chance of a Fed cut next week and 82 bps in easing in 2025. I wrote a

Later today, Wednesday, 11 December, we get the US consumer inflation data for November 2024 due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Preview posts are here: Preview: What to expect from Wednesday’s US CPI reportGoldman Sachs: What we expect from the November US CPI reportUS November CPI data due Wednesday, December 11

Financial markets are seeing heightened volatility in the aftermath of the coup that fizzled out. The Bank of Korea and Ministry of Finance are holding daily meetings to enact stabilisation measures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: China is considering to allow the yuan to weaken next year as trade risks loom – reportAUD/USD tests the August low as China considers letting the yuan depreciate furtherBOJ reportedly sees little cost to waiting for next rate hikeUSD/JPY sent for a spin but now moving higher as BOJ rate hike odds fadeWhat is

🚀 Crypto Market Comeback: Bulls Are Back in Charge! 🐂 The crypto market is flexing its muscles today, showing a strong rebound that’s got traders buzzing! Bitcoin (BTC) is leading the way, up 1.65% to $98,259.15—just shy of that magical $100K mark. Ethereum (ETH) isn’t slouching either, climbing 2.37% to $3,716.60, while Solana (SOL) is

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

The European session is empty today and we will likely see some choppy price action as we head into the US CPI release. This week is all about the US CPI even though there are other central bank decisions. This report is one of the most important ones in several months and the market’s reaction

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

The US Treasury has auctioned $58B of 3 year notes. Wi level at the time of the auction:4.116%High Yield: 4.117%Bid to cover:2.58X vs 6-month average of 2.56XTail 0.1 bps vs the 6 month average of 0.0 bpsDirects (domestic buyers) 20.7% vs 6 month average of 17.1%Indirect (international buyers) 64.2% vs the 6-month average of 66.4%Dealers

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -1.0%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% US futures are lightly changed and keeping with a more tentative mood after two days of declines this week. Investors are keeping rather cautious after the extended gains since November. And they will be looking to the inflation data later to

The report says that China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering to allow the yuan to weaken in 2025 amid the prospects of trade tariffs from US president Trump. The move is said to be an acknowledgement on China’s end that it needs a bigger economic stimulus to combat the threat of Trump’s tariffs. The

FBS, a leading global broker, highlights the resurgence of alt-season, a phase in the cryptocurrency market characterized by the growing prominence of altcoins. The 2024 alt-season reflects evolving trends in blockchain innovation, with projects like Fetch.ai integrating AI into decentralized applications and Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum enhancing scalability. Additionally, meme coins such as Dogecoin

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0490-00 levels. With sellers back in near-term control again as price action is below both the key hourly moving averages, it puts focus on the figure level – where price was

New Zealand data for manufacturing sales volumes in Q3 2024: fell 1.2% (+0.3% in Q2) Volumes for dairy and meat products, the country’s biggest export earners, rose 0.9% Not a Kiwi $ mover. More here at Stats NZ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It is being reported that the US trade representative’s office will later today announce a doubling of tariff on Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon to 50%, with tungsten products also to be slapped with a 25% levy. This as part of Biden’s final efforts to protect US manufacturing from China’s cleantech industry. The new tariffs

Earlier this year, the BLS reported that a subset of files were released prior to the April CPI report, leading to a premature move in the Treasury market. Previously, a BLS economys shared undisclosed technical calculations with some ‘super-user’ economists, also leading to market moves. Then in August, the annual non-farm payrolls benchmark revision report

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month with this rate of growth. On an annual basis, the CPI rose by 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a 0.3% month-over-month

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.3% Equities are seeing a more sluggish showing in the past few sessions and that is leading to a more tepid mood at the moment. US futures are marginally higher but investors will have to look to the US CPI report later for further clues. This article was written

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged yesterday at 4.35%, its highest in 13 years: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBA on hold, less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke extensively at her press conference following the Statement, links here: Forexlive European FX news wrap: Choppy price action as the

Bitcoin Futures Analysis: AI-Powered Insights for Investors and Traders Bitcoin futures continue to attract significant attention as traders navigate key levels and market shifts. In this report, we bring you our AI-driven analysis, propietary to ForexLive.com, based on advanced order flow mechanics and volumetric data, offering actionable insights into current and historic price dynamics. Key

Bloomberg is reporting that the Japanese central bank is seeing little cost to waiting for the next rate hike. The report does note that some policymakers are not against a rate hike in December if it were to be proposed. Adding that the officials are said to see the next rate hike as a question

This from Citi comes via a Dow Jones / Market Watch piece (may be gated) – in brief: Citigroup forecasts modest gains for the S&P 500 with a base case of 6,500, a bull case of 6,900, and a bear case of 5,100.High trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, at their loftiest levels in 40 years, pose

This isn’t quite the usual lull ahead of any US CPI report. First, we had China news helping to keep things interesting before the latest headlines on the BOJ here. It is being reported that while some policymakers might be in favour of a December rate hike, they see little need to rush things as

Global trade war would hit overall activityBut much depends on how China would reactOur flexible exchange rate and independent monetary policy are powerful shock absorbersImpact on Australian inflation is ambiguous, could move in either directionWill respond in either direction, with force if needed, to meet mandate This just mostly echoes the remarks from Bullock yesterday.

The US treasury will auction off $58B of 3-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the first of three this week. The treasury will auction 10 year notes (well 9 year and 11 month) tomorrow and 30 year bonds on Thursday. After trading above 4.20% for most of November, yields have

The low earlier briefly touched 0.6340, which was the lowest the pair has traded since November 2023. For now, the August low of 0.6347 remains the key support point on the daily/weekly chart. If that breaks, it will put into focus the October 2023 lows at around 0.6270-85 next potentially. With the RBA shifting to

There are some expectations (minority) of policy change from the MAS in JanuaryIntervention – Indian central bank likely selling US dollars to limit rupee depreciationTaiwan says they will take necessary defence measures re Chinese military activitiesSouth Korean police raiding Presidential office re coupReports Japan is considering a 4% corporate tax surcharge – to go toward

Preview: What to expect from Wednesday’s US CPI reportGoldman Sachs: What we expect from the November US CPI report Inflation data is the main focus for today and it don’t come any bigger than one before the Fed meets. That especially with questions surrounding a potential need to pause for the central bank. All that

The EURUSD moved lower and below an upward sloping trend line in the process, but selling stalled and the price rose. The move up has returned to the lower of 3 moving averages starting with the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.0530200-hour MA at 1.05385100-hour mA at 1.05517 Get above that cluster would

Not on this screenshot is a speech coming up at 6pm Sydney time (0700 GMT, 0200 US Eastern time) Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner Yesterday we had the Reserve Bank of Australia December policy decision and a press conference from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX

Central Bank of India supporting the local currency according to trader reports. INR had been one of many currencies dropping against the rampant US dollar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters provides a summary of forecasts of Singapore’s key economic indicators by economists and analysts. The survey is conducted quarterly following the release of economic data for the previous quarter by the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Singapore central bank survey indicates the majority foresee no change in monetary policy

Scholz is widely expected to lose the vote, after having seen his coalition collapse in November. For some context, his government does not command a majority already. The vote is all but a formality to tee up fresh federal elections in Germany. That will happen once Scholz loses the vote and has to dissolve parliament.

Is the Federal Reserve stalling in its battle against inflation? That’s the question the market will be mulling on Wednesday at 8:30 am ET as November inflation numbers are released in the CPI report. The headline inflation number is expected to tick up to 2.7% from 2.6% in what would be the second rise from

The US is considering harsher sanctions on some Russian oil exports fresh sanctions on Russia’s tanker fleet are one of the proposals being considered This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is no reason for the Bank of Canada overnight target rate to be at 3.75% any longer. The economy is sliding and unemployment has risen to 6.8% from a low of 4.8%. The housing market is slumping in much of the country and population growth is slated to go into reverse for the next

A snippet or two from Rabo on the $A and $NZ, analysts at the bank expect AUD is likely to outperform the NZD in the months ahead, citing: New Zealand economy with a lot less momentum than Australia’sweakness of the New Zealand economy and risk for further aggressive rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of

HSBC analysts on the Swiss franc, forecasting a rise for EUR/.CHF to 0.95 by end-2025: Swissy’s recent price action shows a disconnect with interest-rate differentialsHSBC don’t expect this to persistIncreased political and geopolitical tensions have been a more dominant driver for the franc – it strengthens as a safe-haven “Our conviction is that the SNB’s

Japan Producer Prices, also known as Corporate Goods Price Index for November 2024. more to come — The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their outputis calculated

Japan’s latest Business Outlook Survey, for Q4 2024, has been published. The TL;DR is: Large corporations continue to see modest positive sentiment, but the outlook is gradually softening. Small corporations remain under pressure, with persistent pessimism and labor shortages. Growth in non-manufacturing is outpacing manufacturing, with profitability challenges evident for the latter. Investment remains a

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data is here from earlier: Japan November PPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.2%) and +3.7% y/y (expected +3.4%) Recapping the report, and adding more: November Wholesale Inflation: Accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 3.4%, marking the third consecutive month of increase.Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI): Climbed to 124.3, its highest level on record,

The major indices all move lower in trading today with the Russell 2000 fairing the worst with a decline of -0.42%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial averagefell -154.10 points or -0.35% at 44247.83.S&P index fell -17.94 points or -0.30% at 6034.91.NASDAQ index fell -49.45 points or -0.25% and 19687.24Russell 2000 fell

Reuters Tankan report for December 2024, in summary: Manufacturers’ Sentiment Turns Negative: December index fell to -1, down from +5 in November, marking the first negative reading in 10 months.Non-Manufacturers’ Sentiment Improves: Index rose to +30 in December, up from +19 in November, with further improvement to +32 expected in March.Outlook for Improvement: Manufacturers’ sentiment

This comes via eFX. ANZ recommends selling AUD/CAD, expecting the pair to weaken due to AUD’s greater sensitivity to risk sentiment and trade dislocations, while the negative CAD narrative is already priced in. Key Points: AUD Weakness: Trade Risks: Ongoing US-China trade tensions disproportionately impact AUD due to its higher exposure to global risk sentiment.Risk

US Q3 unit labor costs +0.8% vs +1.5% expectedUS November NFIB small business optimism index 101.7 vs 94.2 expectedThe US treasury auctions off $58B of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.117%EIA forecasts global oil production will rise 1.6m bpd in 2025Xi says China will continue to be the biggest enging of world economic

The US dollar has been a strong performer this year and it’s tough to bet against it going forward given the setup for US economic outperformance. That said, it’s clearly a crowded trade and Morgan Stanley’s David Adams thinks it’s too crowded. “Based on our conversations, it seems that consensus has firmly shifted towards a

The USD/JPY rebounded from an earlier dip in the Asian Pacific session, hitting new weekly highs and testing the 38.2% retracement level at 151.736 in the London morning session. Sellers stalled the pair near that MA coming into the US session with the price trading around 151.52 at the start of the US trading. However,

Prelim was +1.9% Prior was +2.4%Productivity +2.2% vs +2.2% expectedPrior was +2.1% US productivity has been impressive and could have implications for monetary policy but it’s not a short-term market mover. The drop in unit labor costs is disinflationary. The market is pricing in an 85% chance of a Fed cut next week but tomorrow’s

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX flatFrance CAC -1.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.9%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.1% It was a tough day in more ways than one in the UK as Ashread Group proposed moving its primary listing from the UK to the US. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Australian dollar is at the lows of the day, down 67 pips to 0.6370. The drop erases a strong gain yesterday that came on optimism about China stimulus. However the Chinese market slumped today on pessimism that Beijing will actually deliver stronger growth. The US-listed China MCHI ETF is down 4.7% today after climbing

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

The price of bitcoin is trading lower with the price now down around -2.7% to $94,700.The low price has reached $94,578. The move lower was foreshadowed by the break and inability to extend back above the broken 200-hour MA at $98244. Buyers turned to sellers. What next? The next target support area comes between $90742

Goldman Sachs forecasts moderate gains in both headline and core US CPI for November, driven by rising used car prices, airfares, and energy costs. The firm expects the core CPI to rise by 0.28% MoM (vs. 0.3% consensus), translating to a 3.27% YoY increase. Headline CPI is projected to increase 0.28% MoM and 2.7% YoY.

The EIA is out with the latest STEO. We expect the Brent crude oil spot price will remain close to its current level in 2025, averaging $74 per barrel for the yearThey see the oil market as ‘relatively balanced’US production seen at 13.52 mbpd vs 13.53 mbpd prior (vs 12.93 mbpd this year)US natural gas

US November NFIB small business optimism index 101.7 vs 94.2 expectedUSD/JPY looks to US CPI report to potentially break ping pong rangeChina shot in the arm already fading away?German engineering body continues to see fall in production for 2025European indices hold slightly lower at the open todayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures -0.5%

Still awaiting the November alone numbers. January – November exports +5.4% y/y (USD denominated)January -November imports +1.2% y/y (USD denominated) OK, here we go with November month alone data: USD denominated exports +6.7% y/yUS dollar denominated imports -3.9% y/ytrade balance US$ +97.44bn China’s trade surplus with the United States in November reached $34.9 billion, widening

JP Morgan on crypto last month, “monumental”. highlights from the note: Donald Trump’s reelection triggered a historic rally across crypto marketsNovember’s market cap growth of 45% was the crypto market’s best monthly return. U.S. spot crypto ETFs posted another record month in NovemberU.S. spot exchange-traded products (ETPs) the bank tracks saw record monthly net sales

The USD/CHF has been testing the downside, with attempts to break below the swing area between 0.8772 and 0.8776 on Friday and Monday. Both breaks failed, and rallies were capped at the swing area between 0.8794 and 0.8799. In today’s trading, the pair initially dipped during the Asian-Pacific session, finding support near the lower end

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Sector Overview The US stock market today is a mosaic of mixed performances across various sectors. Notably, the Technology sector is experiencing significant contrasts. While Google (GOOGL) is making impressive gains at +3.88%, Oracle (ORCL) faces a steep decline of -9.44%. Meanwhile, the Software – Infrastructure components like Microsoft (MSFT) remain relatively stable with a

Cannot describe an exact scenario on what may lead to us cutting rates in FebruaryThere are many configurations in the data that might potentially lead us in that directionBut honestly don’t know if there will be a rate cutHave to look at the data and be data drivenWe are watching for things to move in

This isn’t a market moving comment but it advances the debate around what sort of stimulus is coming from China this week. I think the overall negative sentiment around China — particularly in the long term — is way overdone. Yes, the stock market is weak but a good portion of that is because Chinese

Barak Ravid from Axios reports on a meeting between Israeli and Egyptian intelligence officials but also notes: “Until recently, the thinking in Israel was that Hamas doesn’t want a deal – now it seems that there is a shift and that Hamas may have changed its mind. There is a chance of reaching a deal

Villeroy isn’t really weighing in on monetary policy here as we’re so close to the ECB decision. The market is pricing in a 15% chance of a 50 bps cut with the remainder on 25 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced no change in interest rates as per expectations, but it was considered a more dovish decision. As a result, the price of the AUDUSD moved lower and back toward the lows from Friday’s trading. US yields moving higher has kick started the move higher in the US dollar as

Recent economic indicators have been mixedSome data has been a little softer than expectedThis has given the Board some confidence that inflationary pressures are decliningMonetary policy remains restrictive and is working as anticipatedNeed to see more progress on underlying inflation, some price pressures are still remainingWant to bring inflation down without causing a spike in

Analysts at Bank of America re eyeing ‘two remaining major events’ left for this year, the US CPI report, then the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: “We believe the two remaining major events of the year (CPI and FOMC) can set the near-term direction of the market.”“A softer print can clear the path for

Ethereum Futures forecast For traders and investors seeking strategic entry points, here’s a deep dive into Ethereum’s price action, key support levels, and what lies ahead after last week’s volatile moves. Weekend Recap: Ethereum’s Decline and Key Insights 📉 Ethereum Futures dropped nearly 16% from its recent highs, driven by Bitcoin’s dance around the $100,000

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% with Nasdaq futures doing slightly better. One drag is Oracle, which is down 7.5% in the pre-market after earnings and revenue that missed estimates. Oracle also issued guidance for the current quarter, calling for revenue growth of 7% to 9% and adjusted earnings of $1.50 to $1.54 per share.

Gold is up $30 today to build on a similar-sized gain yesterday. Both gains come on the heels of the People’s Bank of China resuming gold purchases in November for the first time in six months. China is looking to diversify reserves into gold and away from US dollars in what’s expected to be a

The USDCAD is moving higher and trading at the highest level for the year,and going back to 2020. The buyers are in firm control and that comes ahead of the BOC meeting and interest rate decision scheduled for 9:45 AM ET tomorrow. The BOC is expected to cut rates by 50 basis which is helping

Considering the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany, it’s not too surprising to see it finally hit the labour market. The VDMA expects production in 2025 to decline by 2% in real terms, similar to their previous forecast. As for 2024, they see production falling by 8% in real terms. The body also warns of intensified

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

Prior was 93.7 The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by eight points in November to 101.7, after 34 months of remaining below the 50-year average of 98. This is the highest reading since June 2021. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, nine increased, none decreased, and one was unchanged. Following last month’s record high

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.3%UK FTSE -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% This follows the more cautious mood after the selling in Wall Street overnight. US futures are also keeping a little softer, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% currently. That’s setting up for a more tepid and tentative mood on the day,

CryptoAutos, the world’s first blockchain-powered luxury automotive marketplace, has announced the Token Generation Event (TGE) for its native utility token, $AUTOS, scheduled for 11th December 2024 at 12 PM UTC. This event represents a significant development in CryptoAutos’ efforts to enhance the ownership and interaction of high-value assets through blockchain technology. $AUTOS will launch at

As the U.S. and North American trading session begins, broader indices are positive, and U.S. yields are rising, despite Oracle shares falling sharply in premarket trading. The drop comes after the company narrowly missed earnings expectations by a penny and reported slightly lower-than-expected revenue. Oracle’s quarterly profit rose 24% year-over-year to $3.15 billion ($1.10 per

There are arguably just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0600 levels, sandwiching the current spot price. That should help keep price movements in the pair more limited before the expiries roll off, with larger ones also still in

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The dollar continues to keep steadier in the new week, with a more negative risk mood overnight keeping other major currencies in check. USD/JPY was a modest mover as it climbed back above 151.00, helped by higher Treasury yields. The pair continues to keeps thereabouts, trapped in between its 100 and 200-day moving averages at

China is to continue to play the role of the largest engine of global economic growthThere will be no winners in tariff wars, trade wars, tech wars For some context, China’s 2024 GDP target is for “growth of around 5%”. And most analysts are seeing them clock in growth of 4.8% to 4.9% for this

The pair might be trading a little higher today, up 0.2% to 151.50 but it’s not really saying all too much. Looking at the chart above, the most recent bounce comes amid a defense of the 100-day moving average (red line). And since then, buyers have slowly gathered more conviction but nothing outstanding as of

HSBC analysts have noted that the US dollar’s recent movements are closely mirroring its behaviour eight years ago after Trump’s initial presidential election victory. Following the 2016 election, the dollar experienced a sharp rise, paused briefly, and then regained strength in early 2017. The analysts suggest the current rally appears to be on a similar

The major US indices closed moderately lower across the board. Losses for the major averages were -0.54% to -0.67%. Dow industrial average -240.59 points or -0.54% at 44401.93S&P index -30 7431 points or -0.61% at 6052.96NASDAQ index -123.08 points or -0.62% at 19736.69.Russell 2000-16.15 points or -0.67% at 2392.83. After the close, Oracle announced Q3

German DAX futures -0.4%UK FTSE futures -0.5% The risk mood is keeping more cautious after the selling in the US session yesterday. US futures are also more muted, with S&P 500 futures marginally lower by 0.1%. Overall, that’s leading to a more sluggish tone as we look to get the session underway in Europe. This

FX option expiries for 10 December 10am New York cutRBA leaves its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedChina trade data dribbling out: Jan – Nov exports +5.4% y/y & imports +1.2% y/yYuan update – finding a few bids in the wake of promisesAustralia’s largest fund manager expects RBA hold today, cut in MayJP Morgan

The run higher yesterday after the China news saw AUD/USD briefly move up above its 200-hour moving average (blue line). But ultimately, sellers held the line in pinning the pair down as the euphoria faded amid a more negative mood in equities. That continued into today before the RBA pushed the issue with the pair

Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of Canada to deliver a 50bps rate cut at this week’s policy meeting, though they acknowledge a 25bps cut is a credible alternative. Slowing growth, a rising unemployment rate, and a lower-than-expected Q3 GDP print strengthen the case for more aggressive easing. Key Points: Rate Cut Expectations: Base Case: A

The news here yesterday came after the domestic session closed but the Hang Seng index managed to capitalise and rallied to produce over 2% gains. The optimism was largely expected to carry over to today but the mood music hasn’t quite turned out that way. That despite domestic indices closing higher today. It doesn’t tell

Mandala Chain, an L1 dedicated to connecting government, enterprise, and retail in emerging markets, announces the successful closure of its pre-seed funding round, raising $1 million. The round was led by Harbour Industrial Capital, with additional participation from O-DE Capital, NLS Ventures, and strategic Polkadot ecosystem partners. This milestone marks a pivotal step in Mandala

It is to acknowledge that some of the data has been softer than we expectedWe wanted to convey that our opinions, views are evolvingWe are not saying what we might do but acknowledging that there is some softeningWe are not saying that we have won the battle against inflationBut we are acknowledging that things are

Prior +2.0%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.4% Core annual inflation is seen at 3.0% on the month, and that is slightly higher compared to the 2.9% reading in October. Stagflation much for Europe’s largest economy? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Canada PM Trudeau is saying Canada will respond if Trump imposes a 25% tariff. The comment is not really a surprise. The USDCAD bounced off the support (see earlier post) and is stretching back toward the November high and the high seen just earlier today between 1.41744 and 1.4177. This article was written by Greg

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa was asked about the revised Q3 GDP data: says while Japan has not emerged from deflation, a virtuous cycle of wage hikes and passing-through of prices has begun *** This data was released on Monday, a bit of welcome new for Japan: Japan Q3 Revised GDP +0.3% q/q (prelim was +0.2%)

CoinTelegraph had the news earlier, reporting comments from former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao said China would be one of the countries to adopt a strategic Bitcoin reserve, believed “smaller countries” would likely be the first to adopt a Bitcoin BTC reservecould happen slowlyChina’s position on crypto was “harder to predict” given the lack of

I was the sad sack on China yesterday, posting the data indicating the country slipping back towards consumer price deflation: China November CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.5%) PPI -2.5% y/y (expected -2.8%)China’s Inflation Data: November Trends and Projections But, with a glimmer of hope perhaps this week: China’s annual central economic work conference is set

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement will be released at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time on MondayReserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later I posted a preview yesterday: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10,

RBC expect the Bank of Canada to cut its benchmark rate by another 50bp at its meeting on Wednesday, December 11, 2024: adding to a 50 bps cut in October and 125 bps in total cuts since JuneWe continue to expect that additional interest rate cuts will be needed in the year ahead with the

Today is going to be another empty day in terms of data releases as we will just get low tier data points. The main event today was the RBA rate decision. The central bank kept the cash rate unchanged as expected but toned down once again its language as it nears the start of its

Reserve Bank of Australia December 2024 Statement, in brief: Underlying inflation remains too high.The outlook remains uncertain.Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts, but risks remain.Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.While underlying inflation is

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy Statement due today – what to watchMajor indices close moderately lower across the boardNo surprise. Canada Trudeau says Canada will respond if Trump imposes tariffsCrude oil settles at $68.37Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q remains at a robust 3.3%Goldman Sachs: BOC meeting on Wednesday – Base case and

The polls are dire for the governing Liberal Party in Canada but they’re nearly as bad for the NDP — it’s de facto coalition partner. With that, the government persists despite the domestic hunger for change. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will deliver Canada’s annual fall economic update on Dec 16 and said she will focus

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement will be released at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time on MondayReserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later According to the Bloomberg survey of analysts the Bank is expected to leave its

Analysts at US investment firm Oppenheimer expect much higher for the benchmark US equity indes. In breif: S&P 500 Forecast: Predicted to hit 7,100 by end-2025, driven by sustainable monetary policy, strong economy, and favourable labour markets.Earnings Growth: S&P 500 earnings projected to grow 10% to $275 in 2025 ($250 in 2024), with a forward

While there is no survey of expectations for this report, the October data was improved. The National Australia Bank (NAB) business survey revealed a notable increase in business confidence, reaching its highest level since early 2023. The business confidence index rose by 7 points to +5, while business conditions remained steady at +7 index points.

We looked at what we found since the previous meetingAnd used that to ask the question whether the current policy stance is appropriate or notThe discussion was mostly about the economic changes and the impact on inflationWe have done some scenario analysis on potential Trump policy changesIt depends on what he says he will do

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q remains at 3.3%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on December 9, unchanged from December 5 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the

National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for November 2024 Business Confidence drops to -3 prior was +5 Business Conditions drop to +2, the lowest since the pandemic (worst since late 2020) prior was +7 Some of the sub indexes: sales come in at +5, from +13 in Octoberprofitability -1 (from +5)employment intentions +2 (from

I posted earlier with the info on what was announced from China late on Monday and how it impacted: ICYMI – China opened the taps Monday afternoon Chinese equities jumped at the open today, pulled back, but are net higher on the session. The yuan has found some strength also – here is the offshore

China Xi holding meetings with ‘heads of major international economic organizations’ this morning China announced a ramp up of economic support yesterday, links in the post below to the details: ICYMI – China opened the taps Monday afternoonn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

RBC preview the December 17-18 Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, expecting a 25bp rate cut at this meeting and then again at the January 31-February 1 2025, meeting pace of easing has already slowedrecent communications from Fed speakers continue to hint at further but smaller rate cuts After the February rate cut

I posted a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday. The TL;DR is watch the statement: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – Statement/Bullock focus As for China … sheesh … slipping back towards CPI deflation, PPI has been deflating for 26 months in a row: China November CPI +0.2%

The price of crude oil is settling at $68.37. That is up $1.17 or 1.7%. The high price reached $68.85. The low price was at $67.07. Looking at the hourly chart, the high price today was able to breach the near-converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages at $68.63. However, the price could not sustain momentum

South Korean finance ministry: recent market volatility is a bit excessivewill respond with market stabilising measures Financial markets in South Korea have been tumultuous after last week’s coup/cancelled coup. Monday’s developments: South Korea’s benchmark equity index has fallen to its lowest since late April 2020South Korea to announce measures to improve FX liquidity by end

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey came in at 85.5 prior week was 88.4 A big drop from deeply pessimistic to even more deeply pessimistic! Under 100 is net pessimism. ANZ remarks on the fall: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts after Q3 GDP and the end of Black Friday sales. All subindices

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EUR/USD began the U.S. session near the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the November high, at 1.05628. After an initial reversal to the upside, the pair climbed toward the swing area between 1.05926 and 1.06097, peaking at 1.05937 before sellers regained control. Resistance held firm, and the price has since retreated. The

The major US indices are trading their lows as the day winds down Dow industrial average -175 points or -0.40% of 44464.55. The low price for the day reached 44441.26. S&P index is down -36.78 points or -0.61% at 6053. The low for the day reached 6051.10.NASDAQ index is down -140.26 points or -0.71% at

Stable Diffusion video generation is a killer app that was first teased by OpenAI in February. It’s taken awhile to launch to the public but it looks like it’s here, with ‘plus’ and ‘pro’ users getting the roll-out today. As for Europe and the UK, Altman said he didn’t know when it would be available

Drone manufacturers in China recently began limiting sales to the US and Europe of key components used to build unmanned aerial vehicles, according Bloomberg sources. That’s a pretty strong sign that Beijing won’t be leaning on Moscow to end the war. Meanwhile, after meeting with Zelensky on the weekend Trump said he was actively working

The announcement here is reverberating across broader markets as Beijing promises to step up monetary policy easing even more going into next year, alongside vowing for more fiscal spending. The headline came after the close for Chinese domestic markets but there are spillover trades. The Hang Seng is now up 2% after having been down

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

There is a reflationary impulse from China from today’s shift in tone on monetary and fiscal policy but the Treasury market isn’t fully embracing it. Yields are up 2-3 bps across the curve and that’s despite several auctions on the docket this week. Now some of that may reflect the current reality after today’s China

Prior one-year inflation expectations 2.9% (a four-year low)Three-year inflation expectations 2.6% vs 2.5% priorFive-year inflation expectations 2.9% vs 2.8% prior Other statistics: Current household financial situation perceptions steadyRespondents sharply cut expectations of future government borrowingMean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—ticked up by 0.5

Gold has a seasonal tailwind in Dec-Jan and now it has a fundamental one. China’s central bank resumed buying gold for the first time in six months, weekend data revealed. China had halted purchases in May in a move that signalled price sensitivity above $2400/oz. However it looks like they’ve had a change of heart

NYT reports that Israeli ground forces have crossed into Syria’s territory for the first time since the 1973 October War. This is getting some attention across media. I’d seen similar reports almost 24 hours ago so I am not sure this fresh breaking news. Reports I’d seen over the weekend were that Israel Defense Forces

The USDJPY is pushing higher and in-the-process has stretched to – and now through – a swing area between 151.198 to 151.27 area. Earlier today, the price moved above the 200-hour MA at 150.336 increasing the bullish bias. That got the ball running. With the price moving above the swing area now, the next target

Pepeto has captured the crypto community’s attention with its compelling story and utility. Currently priced at just $0.000000096, Pepeto offers an affordable entry point, with five days left in its current presale stage. Pepeto has also teased major upcoming announcements, further fueling speculation and interest. Its combination of narrative-driven appeal, advanced utilities like a cross-chain

The French stock market hasn’t been bothered by the political turmoil at home. Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.1%German DAX -0.1%France CAC +0.8%UK FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain IBEX -0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD moved higher in the Asian-Pacific session today and in the process got within 3 pips of the 2024 high at 1.4177 and the highest level going back to May 2020. Finding sellers against that level increases that level importance today and going forward. Getting above that level might be more difficult with the

The USD/CHF pair moved higher during the Asian-Pacific session, briefly breaking above a key swing area between 0.8794 and 0.87995 (rounded to 0.8800). The high of the day reached 0.88035 before reversing to the downside. The failure to sustain momentum above 0.8800 triggered a move lower, with the price retesting the 200-bar moving average on

South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok released a join statement with economy-related ministers on Sunday. The meeting was held in the aftermath of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief declaration of martial law Tuesday. “The government will mobilize all resources available in accordance with contingency plans and take bold and swift measures, if necessary” “We have

Prior was 107.66 (revised to 108.25)Jobs hard-to-get 15.2% vs 17.6% priorFirms reporting unfilled positions rose for second straight monthJob openings rebounded from September’s post-pandemic lowIndustrial production and manufacturing/trade sales increasedInvoluntary part-time work declined for fourth straight month “The ETI rose again in November, marking consecutive monthly gains for the first time in 2024,” said Mitchell

Some of the highest-flying stocks are being hit by a round of profit taking to start the week. There were positive opens in some of the stocks but that’s been followed up by steady selling that now has the Nasdaq down 0.8%. NVDA -3.5% on Chinese anti-monopoly investigationSHOP -3.1%META -2.6%TSLA -2.0% (after opening at a

Prior month 0.2%Wholesale inventories 0.2% versus 0.2% estimateTotal inventories were up 0.9 percent from the revised October 2023 level YoY.Wholesale sales -0.1% versus 0.5% last month (revised from 0.3%). Wholesale sales were up 0.9% from October 2023 YoY. The October inventories/sales 1.34. The October 2023 ratio was the same at 1.34. Looking at the inventory

Headlines: China’s Politburo says will implement a more moderately loose monetary policyChina president Xi: We must be fully prepared to achieve next year’s economic targetsChina promise for even bigger easing lifts risk sentimentWeekly update on interest rate expectationsSNB total sight deposits w.e. 6 December CHF 458.8 bn vs CHF 458.9 bn priorEurozone December Sentix investor

Political turmoil in South Korea is adding to the weights on South Korea equities. Earlier: South Korean Finance Minister vows bold and swift measures to address financial mkt swings South Korea to announce measures to improve FX liquidity by end of year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data, improved economic growth data from the preliminary reading. USD/JPY little changed. Private consumption came in at +0.7% q/q from +0.9% in the prelim, so that’s not a good result. Capex not as bad at prelim at -0.1% q/q from -0.2%Domestic demand +0.5% q/q from +0.6% The better headline will be some encouragement for

The AUDUSD buyers are making a play today with a bounce away from support on the daily chart. The move to the upside has taken the pair above a swing area between 0.6433 and 0.64419 and also above the 100 hour MA at 0.6433. That area will now be risk-defining level for buyers looking for

The US stocks are mixed with the S&P and Nasdaq marginally lower while the Dow is marginally higher. European shares are mixed as well. US yields are higher by close to 2 basis points (2 year up 1.8 bps at 4.116% and 10 year up 1.9 bps at 4.174%. Gold is higher by $23 or

Will implement more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policyTo enrich and improve policy toolboxMust expand domestic demand in all directionsMust vigorously boost consumptionTo expand opening up to the outside world, stabilise foreign trade and investmentWill step up “unconventional” counter-cyclical adjustmentsWill enhance support to improve people’s livelihoodsTo stablise property and stock markets The big

🔍 Stock Market Snapshot Today’s stock market paints a mixed picture, with significant fluctuations across various sectors. While some technology giants face pressure, the automotive industry shows promising gains. 📉 Semiconductor Struggles: Nvidia Leads the Decline Semiconductors are seeing a harsh downturn today, notably with Nvidia (NVDA) plummeting by 3.14%. This decline reflects investor caution

Comparatively calmer market conditions of this year could lead to greater risk-taking in the futureWe must continue to be vigilant in light of increasing uncertainty around the outlookWe should monitor and assess risks in UK financial markets, and utilize our balance sheet when it is appropriate to do soGilt markets continue to function in an

Fundamental Overview The Chinese Politburo announced that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025, which marked the first major shift in stance since 2011. Moreover, the language around fiscal policy was stepped up to “more proactive” from just “proactive” in another sign that Chinese officials intend to ease policies more

There are three China stories you need to know today: 1) China says it will implement a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy In terms of monetary policy signals, this is as good as it gets. It came with pledges for a ‘more proactive’ fiscal policy as well. All systems go as US-listed China ETFs up 6%.

There are some reportsa about that Amazon shareholders have proposed that the company explore adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet as a strategy to hedge against inflation. This request aligns with a broader trend among major corporations, such as Microsoft and Tesla, which are evaluating Bitcoin as a potential asset to safeguard value and enhance

This is an interesting piece from Finance Magnates (good buddies of ForexLive!), it examines FX Market Reactions to Key Economic Events: focus on Federal Reserve meetings, NFP releases, and CPI announcementsusing high-frequency data to analyze millisecond-level price changes The report highlights the speed of price movements. It shows that 60% of price changes within an

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement will be released at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time on MondayReserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later According to the Bloomberg survey of analysts the unanimous expectations os for the cash

Bitrue crypto exchange has partnered with Babylon Labs to launch a brand new dual rewards program for Bitcoin staking today. According to the official announcement shared with Forexlive, this dual rewards program will provide multiple ways for long term BTC holders to leverage their current holdings to maximize their earnings. Users will be able to

Chinese inflation data for November 2024 Consumer Price Index once again flirting with deflation. +0.2% y/y (slowest in 5 months) vs. +0.5% expected and down from +0.3% in October. the m/m is worse, +0.6% (expected -0.4%) If there is something more positive it’s the PPI, that didn’t fall as sharply as expected or by as

Today is going to be a synthetic Sunday as we have basically nothing on the agenda. The main event for today was the Chinese CPI report which showed once again that deflationary forces remain in place and if the Chinese officials don’t keep on easing aggressively, they risk Japanification as real rates remain too high.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior -12.8 That’s the weakest reading since November 2023 and it highlights the pessimistic outlook towards the euro area economy to wrap up the year and also towards next year. With political uncertainty rising and Trump tariffs on the horizon, it’s not a good look for the Eurozone ahead of what will be a very

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to consolidate in a tight range as the markets await the US CPI report due on Wednesday. Overall, nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals. The Fed is expected to cut by 25 bps next week and deliver at least two more rate cuts in 2025. In the bigger picture,

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will start to move towards focusing on the US inflation data later this week as well as key central bank meetings over coming two weeks. The dollar remains vulnerable after the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which served to

Fundamental Overview The Chinese Politburo announced that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025, which marked the first major shift in stance since 2011. Moreover, the language around fiscal policy was stepped up to “more proactive” from just “proactive” in another sign that Chinese officials intend to ease policies more

It’s been a surging run up for the pair, gaining 0.9% from around 0.6385 before the headlines to 0.6447 currently. That comes after testing levels under 0.6400, which were the lowest since August. The nudge higher today now sees buyers recover back some near-term control as well. That as price action climbs above its 100-hour

Oil ICYMI – Saudi Aramco reduced January 2025 pricing for Arab Light crude oil for AsiaReserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – Statement/Bullock focusBank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden is speaking on MondayNew Zealand PM Luxon says committed to continuing efforts to lower inflation and ratesSouth Korea’s benchmark equity index

Fitch analysts on China: China 2025 GDP growth forecast has been revised to 4.3% from 4.5%.China 2026 GDP growth has been revised to 4.0% from 4.3% in September.There are tentative signs of stabilization in the real estate sector, but a prolonged downturn in the property market remains a risk.The effective tariff rate on US imports

Info comes via AP, here is the link to keep up with ongoing developments. In brief: rebel advance reached the capital, ending the Assad family’s 50 years of iron ruleRussian state news agencies were reporting that President Bashar Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow and were given asylumAbu Mohammed al-Golani, a former al-Qaida

I posted this from South Korea’s Finance Ministry over the weekend: South Korean Finance Minister vows bold and swift measures to address financial mkt swings More now from South Korea’s finance ministry and regulators Monday statement, will make all-out efforts to stabilise financial markets by deploying contingency plans announced earlier and preparing fresh measures to

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% It’s all looking positive for stocks now as the mood music has turned up after China’s announcement earlier. S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.1% as risk trades are rallying to start the session. In FX, the biggest beneficiary is

China’s annual central economic work conference is set to convene this week Chinese leaders will convene for up to three daysits a closed-door conference will set out next year’s major policy goals and concrete tasks during the central economic work conference.its attended by hundreds of high-ranking officials, including ministers, the central bank governor, provincial governors

New Zealand PM Luxon: Our commitment is to energize the economy by continuing efforts to lower living costs, inflation, and interest rates. Luxon is speaking mainly on the enhancing competition in the country’s banking sector but hid remark on rates. NZD/USD a few tics lower, circa 0.5828. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 22 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 88 bps ECB: 29 bps (83% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 148 bps BoE: 3 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 76 bps BoC: 47 bps (88%

Info from Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade body and accountants KPMG survey comes via Reuters: Demand for workers in Britain fell sharply after the Labour government’s first budget. REC/KPMG’s staff demand index dropping to 43.9 in November, the lowest since August 2020. Permanent staff placements saw the fastest decline since August 2023, while temporary hiring

Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.5 bn vs CHF 450.9 bn prior Swiss sight deposits were little changed in the past week, continuing to keep at recent levels in the last few months. That isn’t much of a suggestion of the SNB interfering all too much as of late. This article was written by Justin Low

🚀 Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Levels and Strategies for This Week Hello, crypto traders and investors! 👋 If you’ve opened the charts this week, you’ve probably noticed a sea of red across the crypto market: BTC: Down 2.5%ETH: Down 3.5%BNB: Over 4% downDOGE: A significant 7.5% dip (Elon’s favorite is struggling a bit)SHIBA: Nearing a

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures flat It’s still early in the day and we’ll see if European indices can keep up the good mood from the start of December last week. Elsewhere, US futures are also holding more cautious today with S&P 500 futures down 0.1%. The big event for broader markets will come

This week’s economic calendar kicks off on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivering its monetary policy announcement, setting the tone for market sentiment in the region. On Wednesday, the spotlight shifts to the U.S., where inflation data will be released marking the most anticipated event of the week. This will be accompanied

We must affirm the confidence to win while doing next year’s economic workMust maintain strategic focus and actively create an external environment that is favourableCurrent development faces many uncertainties and challenges, must be given high attention The communique from Xi here is mainly to amplify the message set out from the Politburo earlier here. This

There isn’t too much happening in the major currencies space to start the new week. The US jobs report on Friday here served to reaffirm a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed this month. And that’s basically the signal that market players are having to work with right now. The odds of such a

Saudi Aramco Price Adjustments: January 2025 official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude in Asia cut by 80 cents to $0.90 per barrel above the regional benchmark.Arab Extra Light and Super Light OSPs reduced by 60 cents and 70 cents per barrel, respectively.Arab Medium and Heavy OSPs reduced by 70 cents per barrel each.

A Taiwan security source has informed Reuters that China has nearly 90 navy and coast guard ships in waters near Taiwan and the surrounding region. In terms of warships, the number is reportedly nearly doubled from 8 to 14 over the weekend. For some context, China has again stepped up activity surrounding Taiwan over the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

M 6.4 85 km SW of Adak, AlaskaDepth 43km (about 27 miles) Not seeing any tsunami alert at this stage. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump spoke in a Sunday interview. Said that he has no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” with Kristen Welker, Trump was asked whether he would seek to replace Powell. “No, I don’t think so. I don’t see it,” Trump replied”I think if I told

1300 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time – Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on financial stability and the central bank’s toolkit for markets This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

HSBC are forecasting the US benchmark S&P 500 index to hit 6,700 by year-end 2025. HSBC says the 2024 gains were driven by a mix of earnings growth and a valuation re-ratingand that the further gains they expect in 2025 will be driven by 9% earnings growth, “incorporating a slower but still resilient US economy

We had soft inflation figures from China for November out an hour or ago: China November CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.5%) PPI -2.5% y/y (expected -2.8%)China’s Inflation Data: November Trends and Projections Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs’ inflation projections for China in 2025 are significantly lower than the consensus among economists, according to a research note.

November 2024 inflation data is due from China today, and it comes in the context of weak Consumer Price Index (CPI) and deflationary Producer Price Index (PPI). In October, China’s CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly down from September’s 0.4% rise. This marked the ninth consecutive month of consumer inflation (rather than deflation), with October’s

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) statement on the inflation data: In November, policy measures boosted industrial demand, reversing the PPI’s month-on-month decline and narrowing its year-on-year drop.China’s November CPI year-on-year increase hits a five-month low, PPI year-on-year decline smallest in three months.In November, core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise, with

If you have been on holidays and missed this (… cough), Japan’s biggest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) leader Yoshihiko Noda spoke in an interview with Reuters on Friday. in brief: Noda says wrong for BOJ to focus on keeping ultra-easy policy BOJ should raise rates gradually without committing to set pace Weak

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not too much change since late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0560USD/JPY 149.88GBP/USD 1.2734USD/CHF 0.8789USD/CAD 1.4155AUD/USD 0.6391NZD/USD 0.5841 This article was written by

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China CPI.Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: Japan Tankan Index, Japan PPI, US CPI, BoC Policy Decision.Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, SNB Policy Decision, ECB Policy Decision, US PPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.Friday: BoJ Tankan Index, UK GDP. Monday The Chinese CPI Y/Y is expected

Data released Saturday by the People’s Bank of China revealed that it has resumed buying gold. It was the largest official buyer in the world in 2023 as it looked to be headed on a multi-year effort to diversify out of US dollars. That changed this year as officials seemingly became price sensitive as buying

Mon: Eurogroup Meeting; Chinese CPI & PPI (Nov), EZ Sentix (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov)Tue: RBA Policy Announcement, EIA STEO; German Final CPI (Nov), Norwegian CPI (Nov), US NFIB (Nov), Chinese Trade Balance (Nov), Chinese Central Economic Work ConferenceWed: BoC & BCB Policy Announcement, OPEC MOMR; South African CPI (Nov), US CPI (Nov)Thu: ECB &

Morgan Stanley shares a tactically bullish stance on the USD, citing strong US data and trade policy risks. The EUR faces headwinds from weak domestic growth and tariff-related risks, while the GBP benefits from fiscal-driven growth and high rate differentials. Key Points: USD: View: Bullish.Rationale: Strong US data and potential repricing of trade policy risks

These are a couple of spicy candles. A finish above $100,000 would be good for bitcoin and risk trades in general. Let’s bring back some Friday tunes to get to the finish line. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve officials are barred from commenting on monetary policy from midnight Friday until after the December 18 FOMC decision. Given the late date for the final FOMC meeting, it could be quiet for the remainder of the month as the Christmas doldrums will kick-off soon afterwards. There is a risk of some kind of

US November non-farm payrolls +227K vs +200K expectedCanada November employment change +50.5K vs +25.0K expectedUMich December prelim consumer sentiment 74.0 vs 73.0 expectedFed’s Bowman says she does not take a dissenting vote on policy lightlyFed’s Goolsbee: Hope the Fed will get the to range of neutral by the end of 2025Fed’s Goolsbee: On average it

More to come This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

On the day: S&P 500: +0.3%Nasdaq Comp: +0.8%DJIA: +0.3%Russell 2000: +0.4%Toronto TSX Comp: +0.1% On the week: S&P 500: +1.0%Nasdaq Comp: +3.4%DJIA: -0.6%Russell 2000: -1.1% Toronto TSX Comp: +0.2% This week was all about the mega-cap tech names playing some catch-up. Amazon has been particularly strong lately. This article was written by Adam Button at

WTI crude oil settled lower by $1.10 to $67.20 in the second day of selling following the OPEC+ decision to delay barrels through Q1 and bring them on more-slowly afterwards. Oil is still within the range of the past month but is dangerously close to a test of the 2024 lows. There are signs that

This week ahead includes CPI and PPI and with some notable Treasury auctions. The Fed goes into blackout at midnight on Friday so it will be considerably quieter on that front. The FOMC decision is December 18. Here’s a day-by-day preview of next week’s U.S. economic data releases: Monday, December 9 10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories

CIBC is out with a review of today’s Canadian jobs report: Despite strong headline job numbers, the underlying details were mostly negativeThey cite: Largely public sector job gains, highest unemployment rate since 2016, wage growth lowest since June 2023The weakening labor market, combined with slow GDP growth, indicates growing economic slackPrivate sector employment grew only

A single month’s data is not reliable but if the household survey were to show steady deterioration, the Fed would have to look at it more closelyIt’s likely that goods prices will return to deflation, services continues in the right direction, market data on housing suggests coming improvement thereWill be watching rate-sensitive sectors, lagged impact

MUFG Research added a long USD/CAD position to its ToTW portfolio targeting a move towards 1.4550, with a stop at 1.3850. “We are recommending a new long USD/CAD trade idea. We still see room for the CAD to weaken further against the USD heading into next year,” MUFG notes. “Additionally, we expect the BoC to

The dollar is keeping steadier across the board with light changes for the most part. The only standout among major currencies is the more sluggish showing from the aussie and kiwi. They were already down since Asia trading and remain that way to start the session here in Europe. AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6525

US initial jobless claims 224K vs 215K expectedUS October trade balance -73.8 billion vs -75.0 billion expectedCanada October trade balance -$0.92 vs -$0.79 billion expectedMacron: From now on, a new era must start with new compromisesBOE’s Greene: We cannot work out yet what direction US tariffs would push UK inflationAtlanta Fed GDPNow +3.3% vs +3.2%

🌟 Big Money Moves: What It Means for You 🌟 Sovereign and public funds managing a staggering $6.5 trillion are making bold investment moves! 🤑 Here’s what’s happening: 🌍 Emerging Markets in Focus: These funds are pouring money into rapidly growing markets like India, betting on its booming economy for long-term gains. 📈🌱 Going Green:

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The European session is pretty empty on the data front as we will just get low tier releases and the final Eurozone GDP report. The main events will be in the American session as we get the US NFP and the Canadian labour market report. We will also have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

💡 Czech Republic’s Strategic Move to Attract Young Entrepreneurs and Drive the Digital Economy 🚀 By exempting Bitcoin held for over three years from capital gains tax, the Czech Republic is sending a clear signal: it aims to be a leader in the digital age. This bold and forward-thinking policy is designed to: 🎯 Appeal

Comments from Beth Hammack from Cleveland: Says she has an ‘open mind’ about December meeting, more data is comingMarket view of one cut between now and late January is reasonableSlowing pace of rate cuts allows Fed time to sound economyData will drive what the Fed does with mon polFed has more work to do to

The US dollar has recouped the non-farm payrolls declines and — in most cases — even more. EUR/USD is down to 1.0560 from a high of 1.0630. I think — or at least hope — that most of this is on a deeper dive into non-farm payrolls. You essentially have two surveys and the establishment

S&P 500 futures are up 8 points, or 0.1% ahead of the open. The larger move is in Russell 2000 futures, which are up 0.8%. The gains come after non-farm payrolls beat estimates slightly but saw the unemployment rate rise. That’s enough to maintain confidence that the economy is solid but also nudge the Federal

Sector Overview: A Mixed Bag with Tech Taking the Lead The US stock market today presents a dynamic picture, highlighted by notable movements across various sectors. The technology sector shines, driven by gains in key stocks, while semiconductors face mild declines. Let’s delve into the major sectoral performances. 📈 Technology & Consumer Cyclical: Leading the

Headlines: Welcome to NFP dayWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?European stocks look to continue winning streak to wrap up the weekBOE’s Dhingra: We should be easing policy moreEurozone Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q second estimateGermany October industrial production -1.0% vs +1.2% m/m expectedFrance October trade balance -€7.67 billion vs

Prior was 71.8Current conditions 77.7 vs 63.9 priorExpectations 71.6 vs 76.9 prior1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.6% prior 5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.2% prior This report isn’t about consumer spending, it’s about politics. Act accordingly: Republican sentiment up to 81.6 from 53.6 in OctoberDemocrats down to 70.9 from 91.4 in October This isn’t a serious survey.

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.1%German DAX +0.1%France CAC +1.3%UK FTSE 100 -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3% On the week: Stoxx 600 +1.9%German DAX +3.8%France CAC +2.7%UK FTSE 100 +0.25%Spain IBEX +3.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.9% That’s a great week for European stocks, despite all the headwinds around energy and autos. Is that a signal

As the US futures re-open the indices are little changed NASDAQ and e-mini S&P futures are down -0.1% Dow industrial average is unchanged This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar fell to the lows of the day immediately after the November non-farm payrolls report. The headline jobs gain was slightly better than expected at +227K compared to +200K and there was an upward revisions to the past two months of data but the market instead focused on the unemployment rate, which rose

As such, that will likely make for a quieter session in Europe with traders waiting in anticipation of the main event. The headline estimate is for non-farm payrolls to rebound to +200K, with the bounce owing to a recovery from Hurricane Milton and the end of the Boeing strike among other things. But no matter

💡 Volatility Insights: What Liquidations Tell Us About Crypto Market Conditions 📉 Bitcoin and Ethereum Dominate Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, BTC saw $416M liquidated in long positions, followed by ETH at $68M. Heavy liquidation pressure suggests markets are volatile and overleveraged. 💥 Market Sentiment: Longs are getting hit hard, signaling potential bearish trends.

227K is a big number but need to look at averagesJobs market cooling to something like sustainable full employment, want to keep it thereLast few months, jobs number feels like a sustainable, full employment pace This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.2% Looking at the breakdown, there were GDP contributions from household consumption (+0.4%), government expenditure (+0.1%), gross fixed capital formation (+0.4%), and changes in inventories (+0.4%). That is partially offset by a decline in growth for trade i.e. exports less imports (-0.9%) on the quarter. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +12KTwo-month net revision: +56KUnemployment rate: 4.2% vs 4.2% expectedUnrounded unemployment rate: 4.215% vs 4.145% priorParticipation rate: 62.5% vs 62.6% priorPrivate payrolls +194K vs +200K expectedPrior private payrolls +36K (revised from +12K)U6 underemployment rate: 7.8% vs 7.7% priorAverage hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (unrevised)Average hourly earnings y/y: 4.0% vs

The EUR/USD moved higher on Thursday after buyers leaned against the 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs), supported by weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims, which triggered USD selling. This upward move comes ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, a key event that could either confirm or challenge the narrative of a weakening labor market. Non-farm payrolls

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 managed to extend the rally into a new all-time high recently. The conditions for further upside in the index remain in place. In fact, Trump’s policies will be a positive driver for growth in 2025 and with the Fed remaining in an easing cycle, growth should remain positive and might

The headline Canadian jobs gain was a positive surprise today but digging into the details tells a different story. Virtually all the job gains were in government jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% from 6.6% in another jump in population estimates. The jobless rate at 6.8% is now the highest since September 2021

Fed still has not achieved its 2% inflation targetEconomic conditions are very strongThe Fed has made progress in lowering inflation and cooling the labor market.Unemployment rate still well-below ‘full employment’ levelCore inflation ‘uncomfortably’ above targetUpside risks to inflation remain prominentLowering policy rate too quickly could ignite inflation Bowman is a hawk so it wouldn’t be

The South Korean Kospi index is up 0.40%. The Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is opening down -0.06 at 39,371.56. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +14.5KUnemployment rate 6.8% vs 6.6% expected (prior 6.5%)Full-time employment +54.2K vs +25.6K priorPart-time employment -3.6K vs -11.2K priorParticipation rate 65.1% vs 64.8% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 4.1% vs 4.9% priorPrivate sector employment +6.3K vs +20.5K priorPublic sector employment +45K vs -17.2K prior Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in a 56%

Prior -2.5%; revised to -2.0% German factory output declined to start Q4 and is a notable miss on estimates. It reaffirms the dire state of the manufacturing sector, with it still being in recession towards the closing stages of the year. Even if you strip out energy and construction, industrial output was still seen down

Prior month -1.1%Household spending YoY -1.3% vs -2.6% estimateHousehold spending MoM 2.9% vs 0.4% expectedOvertime pay 1.4% vs -0.9% last monthOverall Labor cash earnings 2.6% vs 2.6% est. Last Better than expected data. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A Reuters poll of 44 economist shows: Reserve Bank of Australia to keep cash rate unchanged at 4.35%Expect the RBA to cut rate by 25 bps to 4.10% in Q2 2025 (vs Q1 in the November poll). The AUDUSD remains below the 100-hour MA at 0.64592. If the buyers are to take more control, they

Fundamental Overview Nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals this week as the market awaits the US NFP and the US CPI data. The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out

Happy non-farm payrolls Friday and we get the Canadian employment report at the same time. The consensus on NFP is +200K with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. I wrote a full preview here. Given US hurricane/strike skews, the Canadian report should end up being the bigger market mover. Pricing is almost evenly split between 25

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.4% Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continued to climb in November, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the index. This just reaffirms the positive momentum in the housing market, which wasn’t too badly affected by rate hikes before this anyway. It bolsters the outlook

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq managed to extend the rally into a new all-time high recently. The conditions for further upside in the index remain in place. In fact, Trump’s policies will be a positive driver for growth in 2025 and with the Fed remaining in an easing cycle, growth should remain positive and might even

Romania’s top court annulled the Presidential election results, according to Digi24. The move came after declassified security documents were shown to judges. The court said the election process must be entirely re-run. This is after far-right candidate Calin Georgescu surprisingly won. That’s a strong move. I’m sure they will release the evidence, though it doesn’t

Monetary policy is very restrictive, weighing on supply capacity and investmentNo reason to disagree with market view that neutral rate is around 2.50% to 3.50%Tariffs could lead to a return of supply chain disruption as seen in recent yearsBroadly right to say UK has limited direct exposure to US tariffs Do keep in mind that

The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday helped by the USD selling but once the price stretched to the 50% midpoint of the November trading range, the buyers started to shift to sellers and the price wandered lower into the close. That level comes in at 1.27669. The high price going back to mid-November was just above

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.2% The mood is tempered by the late selling in Wall Street yesterday, leading to a more cautious run up to the US jobs report later. S&P 500 futures are also marginally lower, down by 0.1% but off earlier lows at least. For European equities, a drop today will

Update: The tsunami warning has passed. The location of the earthquake was 40.370°N 125.025°W. Included were a series of smaller earthquakes nearby. It’s well-north of San Francisco and there is a tsunami warning. The nearest city is Eureka, CA, which has a population of 25,000, however it’s in a protected bay that should make it

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been underperforming the other major indices recently and failed to extend into new highs. The conditions for a strong rally into new all-time highs remain in place though. In fact, Trump’s policies will be a positive driver for growth in 2025 and with the Fed remaining in an easing

Hong Kongs Hang Seng index is set to open up 0.3%.The Shanghai composite index is to open up 0.1% and CHina’s CSI300 index is also set to open up 0.1% Meanwhile: Nikkei 225 is trading down -0.65%Australia’s S&P/ASX is down -0.45%S. Koreas Kospi is down -0.40% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

S. Koreas main opposition party says lawmakers are on high alert after many reports of another martial law declaration. This according to Yonhap. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Metaplex, the blockchain protocol used to create virtually every token, memecoin, and NFT on Solana, saw record-breaking protocol fees in November, fueled by a surge in digital asset creation on Solana. Rise in Solana Token Creation Drives Record Protocol Growth As the protocol behind virtually all token creation on Solana, Metaplex has emerged as a

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Prior -€8.27 billion; revised to -€8.42 billion The French trade deficit narrowed slightly in October as exports grew by 0.9% while imports fell by 0.5% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% It’s still early in the day though and the overall mood is more cautious and tentative as we await the US jobs report later. S&P 500 futures are marginally lower by 0.1% for the time being. For European equities though, it

Coincident index 116.5Prior 114.0 The assessment of the coincident index remains as “halting to fall”, keeping with the view over the last few months. The last time this was different was all the way back in April, when it was deemed as “signaling a possible turning point”. This article was written by Justin Low at

Even if Trump slaps UK with tariffs, government has to think very carefully about retaliatingThere’s no political constituency for protectionism in this countryIncreasing costs of goods or food for your constituents is not attractiveA trade war doesn’t benefit anyoneHopes the UK won’t be targeted by TrumpBut if it happens, balanced trade with the US should

ANZ recommends going long AUD/NZD in early 2025, anticipating AUD outperformance driven by diverging monetary policies, growth dynamics, and New Zealand’s diminishing carry advantage. Key Points: Year-End Weakness in AUD/NZD: Seasonal factors and risk sentiment tend to drive AUD/NZD lower into year-end.Strong NZD demand from seasonal exporter flows in November and December typically supports the

Asian Pacific stocks mixing it upS. Korea Joint Chief of Staff: There is no reason to worry about a 2nd martial lawS. Korea’s opposition parties lawmakers on high alert for another martial law declarationPres. Elect Trump picks David Sacks to be WH crypto and AI CzarGeopolitics:S. Korea ruling party leader says Pres. Yoon needs to

The S.Korea Joint chief of staff says there is no need to worry about a 2nd martial law. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In particular, French stocks are shrugging off political concerns and have climbed up to its highest in over three weeks. The CAC 40 index is also targeting a potential technical break higher amid a double bottom pattern off 7,100 at the end of last month: The 100-day moving average (red line) will pose a key

There is arguably just one to take note of in the day ahead, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 mark. The expiries there alongside some short-term resistance around 1.0590 could well help to keep any upside price action more limited, as we gear towards the US jobs report later in

The stock indices in the Asian Pacific market today are mixing it up. ON the topside: Hong Kong Hang Seng, up 1.35%Shanghai composite index +1.23%China’s CSI 300 index +1.57% On the downside: Japan’s Nikkei 225 -0.95%Australia’s S&P/ASX index -0.54% S. Korea’s Kospi index, -0.69% in other markets, Gold is trading up by $9.84 or 0.3%

Australia’s S&P/ASX200 index is trading down -0.31% at 8449.00 in early trading. The major US stock indices moved lower in trading on Thursday. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell by -1.25%. The NASDAQ index declined by -0.18%, the S&P index fell by -0.19% and the Dow industrial average fell by -0.55%. This article was written by

Comments from Macron, who is expected to announce a new PM today: Says he will carry out his full mandate as PresidentSays he will name a new Prime Minister within daysCall for snap elections this summer is a decision that political actors haven’t understoodEarly next year, the new govenment will draft a new budget billNew

Will 2025 look like 2021? Bitcoin broke $100,000, which I think indicates that risk assets are in vogue again. Given the sentiment around the new administration and recent strength in equities, the conditions are falling into place for a bubble. This cryptic tweet is now out from Roaring Kitty, who is the originator of the

The precious metal is up 0.2% to $2,637 on the day but it doesn’t really indicate much, with the low earlier having dipped to $2,613 for a bit in Asia trading. In any case, price action continues to rest mostly in between $2,620 to $2,655 this week and that reflects a more limited range for

Trump has tapped David Sacks to be the White House crypto and AI czar. David Sacks (born May 25, 1972) is a South African-American entrepreneur, author, and investor with a focus on internet technology firms. He is a general partner and co-founder of Craft Ventures, a venture capital fund established in 2017. Sacks also co-hosts

The AUDUSD has seen steady sellers in trading today. The currency pairs now down -0.40%. And extending below what was a floor in the month of November between 0.6433 and 0.64419. That area is now close risk for sellers looking for more downside. Stay below is more bearish. The move to the downside was started

Discover proven MT4 tips and tricks to transform your complicated platform into a simple and efficient platform to enter and exit trades The post MT4 Tips and Tricks (A Definitive Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

This will temper the euphoric mood in bitcoin. It’s given back the $100,000 level, albeit barely. It rose as high as $103,649 today but it seems as though there is some profit taking. It’s all about sentiment from here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Well-known market watcher (and often bear) David Rosenberg appears to have given up on his bearish call on the market. That’s the kind of thing that can often indicate that market sentiment is going into overdrive. He specifically says he “is in no way throwing in any towel” but it sure sounds like he is

18:30 Japan All Household Spending…Oct estimate 0.4%, prior -1.3% 18:30 Japan Overtime Pay Oct. No estimate. Prior. -0.9 18:30 Japan Overall Cash Earnings Oct . Prior 2.5% 18:50 Japan Foreign Reserves | Nov . Prior 1,239.0B 19:30 Australia Owner-Occp’d Hous’g Fi… Oct. Prior 0.10% 19:30 Australia Invest Hous’g Fin MM Oct prior -1.0% 21:00 Australia

We’ve been used to seeing some late-day strength in equities but it’s the opposite today as the S&P 500 turns lower, falling 0.15%. The Nasdaq is also down 0.2%. To be sure, they’re small moves and the market appears to be waiting for non-farm payrolls but the dip has come alongside bitcoin falling through $98K

Nikkei’s 225 futures are down marginally in early trading. The Japan Household spending data came in better than expectations today.. The yield on the 10 year JGB rose Looking at the hourly chart, the price remains above the 100 hour MA at 150.045. Yesterday, the price moved above and below the MA with a late

Geopolitical news: S. Koreas Ruling Party leader Han Dong-Hoon says Pres. Yoon needs to be suspended from his office as soon as possible.Yoon ordered to arrest prominent politicians over grounds they are antistate forces. Yesterday, South Korea’s opposition parties moved to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his brief declaration of martial law, which involved

The U.S. stock indices failed to set any new record closes today, following yesterday’s historic highs for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. All three major indices ended the day lower, with the sharpest decline seen in the small-cap Russell 2000, which fell 1.25%. The Russell 2000 continues to seek a new record close, a

UK services inflation has remained stubbornly high, underpinned by wage growth The Bank of England continues to highlight inflation pressures but growth is also struggling and the honeymoon for Labour was short lived. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Sui Foundation today announced that Phantom Wallet, the leading non-custodial multichain cryptocurrency wallet, is now integrating with the Sui network. At 7 million monthly active users, Phantom has the largest on-chain user base of wallets in the web3 industry. With over 560M total onchain transactions year-to-date, and key features such as staking, in-app token

Pepe Unchained, with 10 days remaining until its official listing, continues to draw attention for its Layer 2 technology designed to improve scalability and transaction speed. Simultaneously, Pepeto is building momentum with its utility-driven approach, offering a cross-chain bridge, zero-fee exchange, and staking features. As both projects progress, Pepeto’s focus on addressing broader challenges in

Prior was 213KContinuing claims 1871K vs 1905K expectedPrior continuing claims 1907K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD and layered in between 1.0500 through to 1.0550. As such, the expiries could play a role in terms of limiting price movements during the session ahead. That at least until we get to the US weekly

Dropping ‘you’re welcome’ is a classic Trump move but him appointing Atkins, along with the comments from Powell and Putin are what did it. More importantly, the comment is as close as you’re going to get of an endorsement of bitcoin from a President (unless we’re talking about the President of El Salvador). That’s a

We don’t get the first look at Q4 GDP until January 30 but the early indications are upbeat and the Beige Book yesterday highlighted improving business sentiment. “. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private

Prior was -84.4 billionGoods trade -98.26 billion vs -99.08 billion priorExports -1.6%Imports -4.0% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Consensus estimate +120K Estimate range +155K to +275KSeptember was +12K Private consensus +200K versus -28K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% versus 4.1% priorPrior unrounded unemployment rate 4.145%Prior participation rate 62.6%Prior underemployment U6 7.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus

After breaking above the 100-hour moving average (red line) in European trading yesterday, buyers tried to take a look above 151.00 for a while. That didn’t last as the dollar sagged following a softer ISM services report here. But still, USD/JPY buyers managed a defense of the key near-term level above coming into today. That

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% This reflects the more tepid mood in US futures as well. S&P 500 futures are seen down 0.1% but it is still early in the day. Equities have been off to a good start in December trading with the DAX up over 3% and CAC 40 nearly 1%.

Headlines: Bitcoin finally hits six figuresOPEC+ to delay oil output hike until AprilWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ’s Nakamura: I am not against rate hikes but decision should be data dependentBOJ’s Nakamura: There should not be a preset idea on when to raise interest ratesBOJ’s Nakamura: I want to make decision based on facts by

The entire crypto market is riding high as we head into 2025. Token prices are heading skywards, a crypto-friendly President-elect has been chosen to take power in the US and institutional investment is heading through the roof. More than 7.5% of the world population has adopted cryptocurrencies, according to a recent report by MatrixPort, with

The US dollar is struggling today, particularly against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar. The pound is at a three-week high and looks to have carved out an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The dollar is weakening after a rise in initial jobless claims today but the bigger focus will be on tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report and

There was a brief spike above $69 in anticipation of the decision but that has quickly turned with oil prices now falling to the lows for the day. OPEC+ decided to extend their planned output hike by another three months to April, as expected. Oil failed to sustain bids in trading yesterday and it might

Stocks aren’t doing anything at the moment and that’s going to allow bitcoin to take the spotlight as it trades to $102,800. One of the headline stories on CNBC is a note from Bernstein saying that bitcoin will replace gold over the next decade. That’s the kind of sentiment that will keep the bulls in

BOJs Nakamura is speaking and says: Personally not confident about sustainability of wage growth.We are at a critical phase where we must check many data, cautiously adjust degree of monetary support in accordance of improvement in economy.Hopes of US soft landing heightening, but there are signs of economic slowdown.Japan’s economy recovering moderately although showing some

$100,000 is a major signpost for bitcoin and we’re seeing some profit taking now as hodlers look for ETF buying as exit liquidity. The broader risk mood is also stumbling slightly, though it’s hardly a notable move. I’m keeping a close eye on rising Treasury yields, particularly at the front end. That could drag sentiment

Prior 55.60k US-based employers announced 57,727 job cuts in the last month and that is ~27% higher compared to the same month a year ago. That is six months in a row now that the 2024 layoffs for the corresponding month has come in higher as compared to that in 2023. It is largely expected

TSLA is now up almost 50% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it. It looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but also re-accelerating

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% The changes are light but the DAX looks poised to keep the run higher after breaking the 20,000 mark this week. Another round of gains today will make it six in a row for the German benchmark index. Elsewhere, S&P 500

New French PM likely to be named Thursday eveningSees no case for Macron to quit under current conditionsNarrowing deficit to 3% by 2029 isn’t credible The expectation is that France will name a technocrat as a caretaker President for a budget and housekeeping until an election can be called for July. Update: Barnier has handed

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals varied performances across different sectors. Financial stocks showed resilience, while the tech sector offered mixed returns. Meanwhile, healthcare stocks dipped, signaling bearish sentiment. 🏦 Financial Sector: With JPMorgan Chase (JPM) climbing by 0.85% and Mastercard (MA) at 0.70%, the financial sector leads the growth trajectory. Investors seem confident

Prior month 4.609BBalance of Trade 5.953B vs 4.550B estGood/Services Import 0.1% vs -3.1% last monthGoods/Services export 3.6% vs -4.3% last month Both imports and exports move back into positive territory after sharp declines last month. Trrade surpluse is stronger than expectations as well. The AUDUS has moved marginally higher from 0.6421 to 0.6429 currently. The

The US stock indices raced higher today with the 3 major indices all closing at record levels led by the Nasdaq. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average rose 308.51 points or 0.69% at 45014.03S&P index rose 36.61 points or 0.61% and 6086.41Nasdaq index rose 254.21 points or 1.30% at 19735.12. The small-cap Russell

The sources say that a delay of 3 months is the focus and that is as per expectations, following the numerous reports since yesterday. That is to delay the planned output hike which was supposed to begin in January through to Q1 next year. WTI crude is seen little changed on the day still, up

San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly is speaking and says: We do not need to be urgent.We need to carefully calibrator policy.Will wait until December meeting to make own decision.There’s a lot more work for us to do to deliver on 2% inflation and durable expansion.Inflation is a still number one challenge people are facing

The euro and pound rose to the best levels of the day after an uptick in US claims for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims hit 224K, reversing a recent slide and touching a six-week high. The rise could be related to post-election layoffs but may also speak to fewer temporarily jobs ahead of Christmas. The

Prior was -1.26BExports $64.22B vs $63.88B priorImports $65.14B vs $65.15B priorFirst increase in exports since June, but gains were concentrated in precious metalsTrade surplus with US shrank to C$6.2B from C$7.9B as exports to US fell 2.8%Gold exports surged, especially to UK and Hong Kong (+20.9%) Key Details: 8 of 11 export sectors declined despite

73 of 75 economists predict a 25 bps rate cut for DecemberThe remaining 2 economists predict a 50 bps rate cut instead51 of 67 economists expected deposit rate to be at 2% or lower by the end of 2025 For some context, the current deposit rate is at 3.25%. So, to expect rates of at

Chinese stock markets were mostly lower today and continue to consolidate after the September jump but there are concerns brewing. A Xinhua commentary on Tuesday appeared to downplay hopes ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, which will take place December 11 and 12. “If we do not get rid of the ‘worship of speed’

Fifteen years after the launch of Bitcoin, we’re actually here. It’s been a wild ride and to think how much those 10,000 Bitcoins will be worth when they were exchanged for two pizzas all the way back in May 2010. Even if you’re not a fan or not a believer, you have to admit that

The USD/CHF remains in a technical stalemate more than halfway through the week. Early today, the pair hit its weekly low before rebounding into a swing area between 0.8880 and 0.8894. However, the momentum faltered, and the price retreated below a cluster of moving averages (MAs) ranging from 0.8845 to 0.8853. This decline extended toward

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

Inflation expectations for the year ahead seen at 2.7% (previously 2.6%)Inflation expectations for three years ahead seen at 2.6% (unchanged)Expected wage growth for the year ahead seen at 4.0% (previously 4.1%)Full survey findings The survey is one conducted on small, medium, and large UK businesses in assessing their perception of prices and wages mostly. Based

From earlier: OPEC+ reportedly have deal in principle to delay output hike This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Social-lifestyle app STEPN GO is thrilled to announce the next milestone in its ongoing partnership with adidas: the launch of the first-ever STEPN GO x adidas co-branded physical running shoes featuring the STEPN GO logo. This exciting development follows a successful year of collaboration between the two brands, which previously saw the release of the

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

Fed’s Powell: US economy is envy of the world, I’m going to do everything to keep it thereUS November ISM services 52.1 vs 55.5 expectedUS November ADP employment +146K vs +150K expectedECB’s Lagarde: Inflation expected to temporarily rise in Q4 and decline next yearBeige Book: Fed districts deport slight growth, rising business optimism for 2025US

Germany’s unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024.The economy remains in crisis. Economy expected to grow by only 0.1% in 2025, following 0.2% contraction in 2024 Not encouraging for the euro zone’s largest economy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the headline, citing a source on the matter. Well, this is as anticipated following the numerous reports since earlier this week and then the supposed agreement here prior to the meeting. WTI crude is up 0.4% to $68.90 but overall movement has been rather minimal so far on the day. Going back to

That’s the weakest reading in seven months and it reaffirms the ongoing recession in the construction sector as well in Germany. The decline in new orders accelerated while there was also a marked deterioration in expectations for the coming year. HCOB notes that: “Against the backdrop of the political crisis, November has been a rough

While all eyes are Bitcoin which broke through the $100K glass ceiling and have since moved to $103,500 area, the major Asian Pacific indices are having a mixed day: Nikkei 225 is up 176 point or 0.45% at 39458Hong Kongs Hang Seng index is down close to 200 pointw or -1.01%ShangHai composite index is up

Prior +0.5% That’s a poor start to the final quarter for euro area retail sales. Here’s the breakdown for the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

IW Institute: German unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024.Mixed picture in the Asian Pacific stock indicesBitcoin $100K. Digital currency reaches the next key milestone.Trump Advisor: Trump wants to implement a Gaza cease-fire deal ASAPBOJs Nakamura: Not confident about sustainability of wage growthAustralia Balance of trade for October 5.953B vs

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 18 bps (71% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 85 bps ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 154 bps BoE: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 78 bps BoC: 36 bps (57%

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

Prior 54.3 The jump last month was driven by the strongest rise in commercial work for two-and-a-half years, as that helped to offset a further decline in home building activity – which saw its sharpest decline since June. Besides that, new order growth also weakened to a five-month low while employment conditions also eased further

2024 GDP growth forecast seen at 0.5% (previously 1.0%)2025 GDP growth forecast seen at 0.8% (previously 1.1%) Their previous forecast was made in June, hence the stark changes here. The euro area economy in general saw a more resilient first half of the year but that has largely faltered in the second half, with Trump

The China stocks are opening weaker: China CSI 300 index expected up-and-down -0.4%, while the Shanghai composite index is expected up-and-down -0.3%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi index is now is also lower by -0.16%, however the Australia’s S&P/ASX is still higher by 0.26%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There’s still plenty of data before December meeting, including Tankan reportNeed to scrutinise those data in deciding whether rate hike would be appropriate Nakamura is one of the more dovish members, so you’d expect a more cautious tone at least. As things stand, traders are pricing in ~38% odds of a 25 bps rate hike

Bitcoin has reached and breached the $100K level for the first time. The prior high reached on November 22 reached $99,800 and backed off. The high price reached $100.293. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The only notable release in the European session will be the Eurozone Retail Sales data. In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. We are so used to good/stable claims that it’s unlikely to be market moving unless we get huge deviations from the expected numbers. We have also the OPEC+

I voted against March, July decisions not because I was opposed to raising ratesBut because such decisions ought to be made after spending sufficient time confirming the data He’s really going out of his way to spell out what his supposed more dovish policy stance means today. If that is any indication, he seems to

Japan foreign bond investment +922.4 billion versus -779.1 billion last weekForeign investment in stocks -607.7B vs -445.8B last weekForeign investment in Japan Bonds 176.1B vs -314.B last weekForeign stock investment -544.7B vs -316.7B This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals this week. In fact, gold continues to consolidate around the major trendline and the 2600 support as the market awaits the US CPI report next week before picking a direction. In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the

It ain’t much, but the EURUSD is stretching higher and has reached the 100 hour MA at 1.05213. Get above and another run to the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 1.05322. Yesterday, buyers had their shot above that MA at highs but once again failed. It failed on the move

Prior +4.2%; revised to +7.2% The surge in September owes to a reportedly large order in shipbuilding and that is now phased out somewhat for the October reading. So, that continues to explain the volatility seen in the last few months. Overall, domestic orders fell by 5.3% while international orders were seen up 0.8% in

Japan economy is still in recovery, not yet at expansionary phaseI seem to be branded as very dovish on monetary policyBut I do see budding signs of a sustained recovery in the economyBOJ haven’t decided on rate hikes in December, January, or beyond thatIt will depend on upcoming data Despite seeding some doubts about a

Prior 2.6% The Swiss jobless rate keeps steady on the month but the unadjusted reading also creeps higher to 2.6%, up from 2.5% previously. The trend since last year has been upwards for Swiss unemployment, reflecting softer labour market conditions. At 2.6%, the seasonally adjusted rate matches that seen during December 2021. This article was

The AUDUSD moved sharply yesterday on the back of weaker Australia GDP data. The price broke below a floor area between 0.6433 and 0.6442 However, a sharp rebound took the price back above the swing area and to a high of 0.6450. The momentum cannot be sustained and when the price low back below the

If anything, Powell was more hawkish today in his interview. He touted an economy that was stronger than thought in September and inflation “a little higher” than anticipated. “The good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious as we try to find neutral,” he said. That points to the Fed

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier negotiated Brexit, now he’s going to negotiate his own exit. Supporting the vote were 331 members out of 574. The move was widely expected but it’s not clear how President Macron will now proceed. An election can’t be called until July so a technocrat might be installed and the budget

A Trump advisor is on the wires saying: Trump wants to implement a cease-fire deal ASAP without delay and before January 20th. Of course Biden would probably want to do the same. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Economic activity rose slightly in most DistrictsThree regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two othersExpectations for growth rose moderately across most geographiesEmployment levels flat to slightly higher, hiring subdued amid low turnoverWage growth softened to modest pace, except robust gains for entry-level and skilled trade positionsPrice increases

The economic calendar is light in the Asian session today: Japan foreign investment flows will be released: foreign bond investment , -773.7 billion lastForeign investment in Japan Stocks, –446.0B lastForeign investment in Japan bonds, -300.7B lastForeign Stock investment, -318.1B last Also Australia balance of goods data for the month of October will be released: balance

On the back of strong gains in the US stock market, Japan’s Nikkei futures are trading higher by close to 1%. The major US stock moved higher with the Dow industrial average, the S&P index, and the NASDAQ index all closing at record levels. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which advance by

The major currency pairs yesterday moved up and down in yesterday’s trading as the markets reacted to weaker PMI data, ADP jobs which wer as expected but lower than last month. Productivity was a disappointment at -0.4% for Q3 vs -0.2% estimateFactory orders came in as expected. The Fed Chair did speak and highlighted the

A report yesterday said Atkins was reluctant to take the job. Coindesk reported that Atkins was hesitant to leave his global consulting firm to clean up what he sees as a bloated agency mismanaged by departing SEC chair Gary Gensler, citing a person familiar. Atkins was SEC Commissioner from 2002-2008 under George W Bush. This

The PBOC is expected to set the Yuan midpoint and 7.2664 per dollar. According to Reuters estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The crypto market appears to be warming up to incoming SEC commissioner Paul Atkins. He was rumored for the pick but was nominated today and is friendly to crypto. That’s helped to lift bitcoin to $98,250 from a low of $94,800 just a few hours ago. Alt coins have been outperforming bitcoin today, including ethereum

There is a positive start to the Asian-Pacific stock indices Nikkei 225 up 0.85%So. Koreas Kospi up 0.30%Australia S&P/ASX index of 0.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Feel very good about where monetary policy isUS economy is in remarkably good shapeThe same institutional relationships between Fed and Treasury will continue under new adminPart of the Fed’s independence is that it’s self fundedEconomy in good shape and no reason that can’t continueOn a path to more-neutral rates over time, though downside risks are

MUFG expects the euro to remain under pressure in 2025, driven by anticipated U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, with EUR/USD potentially testing parity before staging a modest recovery. Key Points: Election Impact: The euro fell sharply following Donald Trump’s election victory, with markets bracing for aggressive trade, immigration, and fiscal policies.Tariff Risks: U.S. trade