I posted earlier on the big change from the PBOC: The People’s Bank of China has switched up its main policy rate to watch — But, back to today … the People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for […]

Small business defaults are up, now it’s getting a little cautionaryUnemployment is up and that’s a caution sign I don’t think it will surprise anyone when Goolsbee is banging the table for a rate cut and dovish statement in September but it’s certainly not clear that others are ready to line up behind him yet.

Daily stock market review: mixed trends and sector performances highlight cautious investor sentiment Today’s U.S. stock market shows a diverse panorama, exhibiting a mixture of trends and sentiment across various sectors. The heatmap provides a clear snapshot of today’s market dynamics, with significant movements in technology, healthcare, and financial sectors catching most of the investor’s

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced a trip to Israel earlier this week, then postponed it, raising some questions about what was happening with ceasefire negotiations. Now an Axios reporter reveals he will visit Israel on Sunday as part of a regional visit that will include Egypt and Qatar. This article was written by

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

We started the week at 2.9% and finish at 2.0%. I would be worried about that if we were anywhere close to Q3 GDP numbers but the prelim estimate is still months away and vol early in the cycle is normal. “After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of

Prior was +0.4%Sales at $69.6 billion in June on declines in 17 of 21 subsectorsDeclines led by the transportation equipment (-2.9%), chemical product (-5.8%) and primary metal (-2.7%) subsectorsTotal sales fell 0.3% in the second quarter of 2024 in third consecutive quarterly declineSales down 1.8% y/yTotal inventory levels +0.1%Unfilled orders -0.8% Retooling at auto factories

Israeli intelligence now assesses that Hezbollah and Iran have lowered the level of alertness in their rocket and missile units and that the response will take place at a later date, according to five Israeli officials, cited by the New York Times. “By Friday, Israeli intelligence had assessed that Hezbollah and Iran had lowered the

Mt. Gox fund liquidation weighed heavily on bitcoin yesterday in what was an otherwise-strong environment for risk assets. It’s been a tricky run for bitcoin as it disconnects from the tight correlation to the Nasdaq. I think that connection is ultimately restored and it climbs back into the $64,000 range but I also think the

Vice President Kamala Harris will call for the construction of 3 million new housing units in her first four years in office, as well as a new tax incentive for builders that construct properties for first-time home buyers The Wall Street Journal with the report. The housing plan is part of Harris’ economic plan, which

Rabobank analysts on oil: “The concerns of an escalation in the Middle East between Iran and Israel again remain overblown with regard to elevated crude oil prices” “Only direct action between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United States toward some kind of blockade or closure of the Strait of Hormuz will materially affect the global

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.8%Francis CAC +0.4%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.4%Spain’s Ibex +0.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.0% Italy posted some strong outperformance today while the UK struggled. On the week: Stoxx 600 +2.4%German DAX +3.4%Francis CAC +2.7%UK’s FTSE 100 +5.0%Spain’s Ibex +2.9%Italy’s FTSE MIB +4.0% The STOXX 600 is up 6.4% from the lows

The rally in gold earlier today may have been underpinned by the issue of new gold import quotas to Chinese banks. Reuters is now reporting about the new quotas, citing four sources. “The quotas have been issued but the local premium to offshore is low so there is no guarantee that the quotas will be

Goldman Sachs discusses their outlook for USD/JPY, emphasizing the role of US rates and real rate differentials in determining the pair’s future performance. Key Points: Dominance of US Rates: Return to Fundamentals: Goldman Sachs expects USD/JPY to align more closely with fundamentals, particularly US interest rates, following recent dislocations driven by carry trade unwinds.Constructive US

US President Joe Biden says “we’re not there yet but we’re closer than three days ago”. I don’t think many traders are trying to predict the outcome of this but Iran seems to have backed off in its planned attack. Here is what Israeli geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz said: US has put forth a bridging

July final was 66.4Current conditions 60.9 vs 62.7 priorExpectations 72.1 vs 68.8 prior1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.9% prior5-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% priorOverall, expectations strengthened for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook (highest reading in four months) Yesterday’s retail sales report was strong and Walmart executives repeatedly described a stable and resilient

Prior was 241.7K (revised to 241.6K)Multi-unit starts +21% vs -12% priorSingle-detached +2% vs -2% prior This is a strong reading as the inventory of pre-sold homes and condos continues to be worked through. The problem is that the front of the pipeline has completely dried up. The CMHC cited strong gains in Calgary and Ottawa

It could be a big day for gold as it nears the July record high of $2483. It just crossed through the July high of $2484 in a strong rebound from yesterday’s decline. The next level to watch is $2500. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s going to be another empty European session on the data front. We will get two notable releases in the US session though, but they shouldn’t be market moving unless we see big deviations from the expected numbers. The first one will be the US Housing Starts and Building Permits, and then we conclude with

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.1% This carries over the positive mood after the US retail sales data yesterday, in which Wall Street also rallied to close near the highs. S&P 500 futures are also up another 0.3% currently, with Nasdaq futures up 0.4% and Dow futures up 0.2%. With yesterday’s rally, the S&P

The live link to proceedings is here. Or, here: Bullock opening statement summary is here: RBA’s Bullock says underlying inflation remains too high AUD/USD is circa 0.6612 and barely moving This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is a bit of a flag pattern forming in gold as price action continues to sit near fresh record highs this week. There was an attempt to breach the key resistance region around $2,475-80 on Wednesday but buyers cooled off after. And after a slight setback, they are quickly turning things around again as

This is not what an overheating economy looks like to me Given the latest jobs report earlier this month, I don’t think anyone thinks that the economy is overheating. But from the retail sales data yesterday, it’s not that bad either. Anyway, this just reaffirms that the Fed is trying to ease into a pivot

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +2.0% Italian stocks are leading the way as they have some catching up to do amid a market holiday yesterday. As a whole, European indices were looking quite bad after the drop at the end of July and the start of August.

Prior -1.2%UK retail sales +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior -0.2%; revised to -0.3%UK retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.7% vs +0.8% m/m expectedPrior -1.5%; revised to -1.3%UK retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior -0.8% It’s one of those few times that UK retail sales does meet estimates, reaffirming a slight bounce

Reuters poll of economists show expectations for further rising inflation in Japan. The next batch of CPI data from Japan is due on August 23 8.30am Tokyo time2330 GMT on August 221930 US Eastern time on August 22 In brief: Expectations from the survey are that core CPI is forecast to rise 2.7% y/y in

There are a couple to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0960 and 1.1000 levels. The latter is the bigger one and arguably of more interest, given similar expiries in the past few days as well. Following the reaction to the US retail

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

RBC continues to see the Bank of Canada lowering rates by 25 basis points on Sept 4 and again on Oct 23. The market sees a very small chance of 50 bps at one of those meetings but this forecast is generally in line with what’s expected. The highlight next week is Canada’s CPI report

The dollar is now ceding quite a bit of ground in trading today, reversing the nudge higher after the US retail sales yesterday. It comes alongside a shove lower in Treasury yields. 10-year yields are now down 5.5 bps to 3.871% and that is weighing on the greenback. At the same time, US futures are

Via EMSC (pic below) on the Taiwan earthquake: Magnitude 6.1Depth 15 km Distance 117 km E of Taichung, Taiwan 27 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk speaking in an interview: Bank is taking a measured approach to rate cutsits uncertain how quickly inflation will fallthe behaviour of price inflation is crucial for the cash rate path ahead NZD/USD little changed around 0.5984 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate by 25bp on Wednesday This

I’m hosting a special free webinar on Monday at 9 am ET (1300 GMT) on ‘7 Common Trading Traps and How to Avoid Them’ It’s an especially notable topic right now given the moves in the yen and equities this month. The best way to make it in markets is to stay in markets. I’m

The Nikkei is also benefitting from the sharply weaker yen overnight, with USD/JPY leaping to highs circa 149.25. It a little lower today but is still assisting Japanese stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng strong also. Mainland Chinese stocks not so much. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

Headlines: USD/JPY eases lower alongside bond yields on the dayGold takes aim at key resistance as the weekend approachesWhat are the main events for today?Fed’s Goolsbee: You don’t want to tighten any longer than you have toUK July retail sales +0.5% vs +0.5% m/m expectedEurozone June trade balance €22.3 billion vs €13.9 billion priorNever underestimate

Consumers still have money to fill their tanks or fly away. That’s the message from today’s US retail sales report and commentary from executives at Walmart. Both emphasized a strong US consumer and WMT said the global consumer was also fine. If so, spending at gasoline stations is likely to remain solid, underpinning gasoline demand.

The market flirted with trading a recession at the start of the month but has decided against it. Today’s data underscored why with better retail sales and initial jobless claims leading to the sixth day of gains in the Nasdaq. That 9% rally is the best six-day run since November 2022. The index is now

Will make great efforts to enhance the sustained upward trend of the economyIt is necessary to stick to goals and not to take a relaxed approachNeed to expand domestic demand more vigorously, focus on boosting consumptionWill explore new growth points for foreign tradeTo make differentiated policy support based on the needs of different groups of

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some strong US data as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. All the major currencies gained against the Yen for two main reasons. The first is that yields rose across the board as the market continues to price out the aggressive rate cuts

There is no better feeling than standing out from the crowd with an award voted for by industry peers. Winning a UF Award represents one of the crowning achievements of any forex brokerage or fintech provider. As the Nomination Round reaches its final stages, numerous nominees are continuing to pour in. Don’t worry though, there

JPMorgan chair of global research Joyce Chang, spoke on Bloomberg TV Thursdauy. Says despite the strong retail sales report on in the US she still sees the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting rates by 100bp over the course of the rest of this year. the path is clearer now for the next 6 monthsdisinflation

Nikkei and Hang Seng the stars in regional equities todayRBA Governor Bullock’s comment that its ‘premature’ to think about rate cuts helping AUDJP Morgan still tipping 100bp of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts in 2024China to toughen rules monitoring movement of people and goods from regions with monkeypoxReserve Bank New Zealand Governor Orr:

Few assets have had as wild of a journey over the past decade as Bitcoin, with the leading crypto poised to make further waves in 2024. Despite all its ups and downs, Bitcoin still reigns supreme with the largest cap of any crypto and unquestionable dominance amongst retail traders and adoption. With this in mind,

A note from analysts at a European-based bank on Thursday said Powell will signal at his speech at Jackson Hole that the inflow of data supports beginning the Fed’s rate cut cycle at the September 17-18 meeting. Yeah, I think there is no doubt about that. Maybe a super high CPI will halt it but

Prior €13.9 billion Looking at the first half of the year, euro area exports totaled to €1,430.1 billion from January to June this year. That is down by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, imports during that period totaled to €1,322.6 billion. And that is down 8.4% compared to the same period

It’s pretty much a broad based move with lower yields weighing slightly on the session. USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 148.75 while GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.2885 currently. Even with equities holding a little firmer, USD/CHF is also down 0.5% to 0.8688 as it succumbs to a push back against a recent key technical

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday rejected comments from U.S. and Brazilian leaders about his country’s contested July presidential election. “I reject absolutely that the United States is trying to become Venezuela’s electoral authority,” We keep an eye on Venezuela because it is an oil producer. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up from 9.30 am Sydney time, which is 2330 GMT and 1930 US Eastern time Appearing in Australia’s parliament, before the the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics are a plethora of Reserve Bank of Australia big wigs: Michele Bullock, Governor, Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), Christopher Kent, Assistant

Quite the jump for these! The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate on Wednesday. While consumer inflation has been drifting down this data has gone in the opposite direction. Earlier from New Zealand today: New Zealand July Manufacturing PMI 44.0 (prior 41.1) — The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got two strong US data releases as the Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures came out much better than expected. The initial reaction was US Dollar bullish, but after a while the market started to fade the move. The reason is that the risk-on sentiment is generally negative for the greenback

The overblown panic on Monday last week suddenly looks quite silly now, doesn’t it? Yes, the labour market did show further signs of softening in July. Perhaps Hurricane Beryl had something to do with it, even if the BLS said that it had “no discernable effect”. However, the US economy as a whole is not

Crypto markets have often been front-runners of market sentiment but it’s not unfolding that way today. Bitcoin is down 3.6% but stocks are at the highs of the day, with the Nasdaq up 2.5%. The divergence is likely related to worries in the crypto market about Mt. Gox liquidation and distribution. In any case, the

Business NZ Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 records its 17th consecutive month of contraction. some small signs of improvementstill significantly below its long-term average of 52.6 BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: sector continuing to strugglee BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: manufacturing activity will turn when the broader economy turnsEasing monetary conditions will help in this

Bullock spoke earlier saying inflation is still high and persistent and its too early to be thinking about rate cuts: RBA’s Bullock says underlying inflation remains too high The RBA left its cash rate unchanged at its meeting on August 5 and 6 and meets again on 23 and 24 September. AUD has rallied …

Yesterday the People’s Bank of China declined to conduct a new Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF): No Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation from the People’s Bank of China today It’ll conduct the MLF on August 26. This is after the setting of Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) due on the 20th. The PBOC did similar last month.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak during his regular time slot on Friday morning at Jackson Hole. The Aug 22-24 Jackson Hole conference ids centred on the effectiveness of policy and its implementation – an especially topical subject at the moment. It has also been a venue that has been used to offer a fuller

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Info incoming from around the place re a Chinese customs announcement: China to intensify monitoring of individuals and goods coming from monkeypox-affected regionsnew measures mandate that travellers from outbreak regions must declare any contact with symptomatic individuals and report any symptoms they have The initiatives aim to curb the spread of monkeypox within China. Extended

China has built the world’s largest offshore oil platform that will be used at the Marjan field in Saudi Arabia. More info here at the link Its an interesting read and also has other information including: Chevron company announced last week it had successfully tested a new high-pressure extraction technology at a deepwater well in

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak during his regular time slot at Jackson Hole, Friday morning of the event at 10am: Federal Reserve Chair Powell to speak at 10am US Eastern time on August 23 Bank of America say that Powell’s speech is unlikely to have much impact on the US dollar. Analysts at the

The dollar is slightly lower on the day, giving back some of the gains from yesterday. The more solid US retail sales data helped to give the greenback a lift, alongside risk trades. It’s a repeat lesson to the old saying: Never underestimate the power of US the consumer Looking to the session ahead, we’ll

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock opening statement: Board is of the view that it currently has the balance right between reducing inflation in a reasonable timeframeOur full employment goal is not served by letting inflation stay above target indefinitely.The board remains focused on the potential upside risks to inflation.Board is trying to bring inflation

Orr is speaking in Wellington, New Zealand. Says the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has achieved a very strong level of confidence that low and stable inflation is back within 1 – 3 % rangeI want to see inflation expectations and pricing intentions continue to remain anchored NZD/USD is around 0.5986 This article was written by

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for July 2024 +12.2% m/m vs. +2.2% expected and -0.4% in June +15.7% y/y expected +1.2%, prior -8.7% Electronics and non-electronics exports growing. Non-oil exports to the United States +28.9% y/y to China +21.1% y/yto the European Union, Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea fell — Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports

US July retail sales +1.0% versus +0.3% expectedWalmart offered six endorsements on the health of the US and global consumerUS initial jobless claims 227K vs 235K expectedUS July Philly Fed -7.0 vs +6.0 expectedAugust Empire Fed -4.7 vs -6.0 expectedUS July import prices 0.1% vs -0.1% expectedUS August NAHB home builder sentiment survey 39 vs

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. And happy Friday to all! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Volatility in in August markets led to something of a reset in markets, with high-conviction trades being tested by rapid drawdowns. Zooming out though, fund managers have a relatively consistent view of a soft landing scenario. “Core optimism on soft landing (76%) & US large cap growth stocks [is] unbowed,” Bank of America analysts write.

Featuring on the agenda for the session ahead: Michele Bullock, RBA Governor, Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), and Brad Jones, Assistant Governor (Financial System) are all appearing before Australia’s parliament. The House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian

Bitcoin has fallen nearly $2000 in the last 30 minutes, dropping to $57,600. The low so far matches the one from earlier in the week and that should provide some support. A break lower could complete the round trip to $55,000 and wouldn’t bode well for the broader risk trade. As for the catalyst, it

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Barclays has moved up its forecast for the next Bank of Japan rate hike to January 2025, citing anticipated labor cost pass-through to service prices and a clearer outlook on wage hikes for FY25. Key Points: Revised Forecast: Barclays now expects the next BoJ rate hike to occur in January 2025, with a possibility of

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

It looked like the pair was on for a break yesterday after the US CPI report but the dollar didn’t end up weakening too significantly. Since then, price action has been a little tight for EUR/USD, with today’s range a measly 12 pips so far between 1.1003 to 1.1015. The reaction to the main event

Will focus on striking a balance between short-term and long-term objectives, between growth stabilization and risk preventionChina will improve the mechanism for forestalling and defusing systemic risksChina will place greater emphasis on the use of price-based tools such as interest ratesWill gradually shift away from a focus on quantitative targetsChina will adhere to supportive monetary

Prior was +0.5%Retail inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% prior No surprises here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: EUR/USD eyes firmer break above 1.1000 but still anchored for nowGold Technical Analysis – Struggling to break a key resistanceWeekly update on interest rates expectationsFed’s Bostic says open to a rate cut in September as inflation coolsRBNZ expected to cut cash rate by at least another 50 bps before year-end – pollUK Q2 preliminary

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady rise recently due to a geopolitical driver coming from the Middle East and a fall in real yields. Yesterday, we saw a drop after a benign US CPI report which might have been due just to technicals as we were at a key resistance level or a

Stock markets are saying the growth scare of August is over. US retail sales beat estimates today and Walmart executives offered a strong endorsement of the health of the consumer. Shares of WMT are up 8% in the premarket. S&P 500 futures are up 1% and have now cleared the 61.8% retracement of the July-August

Prior month: 0.0% Retail sales came in at $709.7 billion vs $704.3 billion in the month before Details: Retail sales: +1.0 vs 0.0% prior Retail sales YoY: +2.7 vs +2.3% priorEx Autos: +0.4 vs 0.4% prior (estimate was +0.1%)Prior ex autos: 0.4% Control group: +0.3 vs 0.9% prior (estimate was 0.1%)Prior month control group: 0.9%

Prior was 42Current sales 44 vs 47 priorProspective sales 25 vs 27 prior I would expect to see builder sentiment ticking up on lower market rates and expectations for Fed rate cuts. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s still very early in the quarter to be forecasting GDP. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on August 15, down from 2.9 percent on August 8. After recent releases from the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US

USD/JPY soared after stronger US retail sales but stalled right at a key level. It rose to 149.32, just two pips shy of the 38.2% retracement of the swan dive from 161.80 to 141.67. It’s stalled there and backed off to 148.96. The Fibonnaci level is a classic barrier in a bounce from a quick

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a steady rise ever since the last week’s US Jobless Claims as the data quelled the fears around the labour market following the weak NFP report. The “growth scare” triggered by the ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak NFP report looks to be behind us for

It’s been a bit of a back and forth week for the pair but price action is ultimately looking to settle higher. The pair nudged higher on Tuesday but was dragged back down yesterday despite some dollar softness in play. But after the more solid employment figures earlier here, we are seeing the aussie pull

Monetary policy is moderately restrictiveLabor market is no longer overheatedLabor market no longer clear upside risk to inflationRecent data have bolstered my confidence on inflationRisk to both sides seem more balancedTime may be nearing for a change in policySees GDP growth 1.5% to 2.0% in H2 It doesn’t get any clearer than this, he’s ready

Producer prices were flat on the month while import prices were up marginally by 0.1%. Relative to the same month a year ago, Swiss producer and import prices are seen down 1.7%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After the release of “Ready Player One” in 2018, which illuminated the possibilities of VR, the idea that virtual reality would become a breakthrough in progress soon really caught on. Companies jumped on the bandwagon, investing tons of money in developing this futuristic technology. Unfortunately for their stakeholders, however, not much profit has been seen.

Wholesale sales m/m -0.6% vs -0.6% expected and -0.8% prior.New motor vehicle sales m/m 168.0K vs 184.7K prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Yoshitaka Shindo, Japan’s Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy: On GDP data: govt will work closely with BOJ to carry out flexible macroeconomic policy managementGovt will closely monitor, economic, price situations and financial marketsThe economy expected to gradually recover as wages, income improveNeed to be mindful of downside risks in overseas economy, market

The European session is empty today. We will get lots of data in the American session beginning with the US Jobless Claims and Retail Sales and then concluding with the US Industrial Production and the NAHB Housing Market Index a bit later. The focus will likely be on the US Jobless Claims. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET

Prior +13.9 Details: New orders: 14.6 vs 20.7 priorShipments: 8.5 vs 27.8 priorUnfilled orders: 3.2 vs 9.1 priorDelivery times: 14.1 vs 8.5 priorInventories: -4.8 vs -9.4 priorPrices paid: 24.0 vs 19.8 priorPrices received: 13.7 vs 24.2 priorEmployment: -5.7 vs 15.2 priorAverage workweek: -2.3 vs -1.6 prior Six-month ahead expectations: General business conditions: 15.4 vs 38.7

The early-August rout continues to be erased from every market in Europe with today being the biggest bounce-back day so far: On the day: Stoxx 600 +1.2%German DAX +1.7%Francis CAC +1.2%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.8%Spain’s Ibex +1.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The currency market is in a tug-of-war today. The US dollar is getting help from rising Treasury yields but is under pressure from improving risk appetite. That’s created a bifurcation trade as USD/JPY holds onto its gains while the US dollar gives back post-data gains against the pound and commodity currencies. GBP/USD dropped on better

Empire Fed -4.7 vs -6.0 prior Details New orders: -7.9 vs -0.6 priorShipments: 0.3 vs 3.9 priorUnfilled orders: -7.4 vs -11.2 priorDelivery times: -3.2 vs -9.2 priorInventories: -10.6 vs -6.1 priorPrices paid: 23.4 vs 26.5 priorPrices received: 8.5 vs 6.1 priorEmployment: -6.7 vs -7.9 priorAverage employee workweek: -17.8 vs -0.1 priorSupply availability: -2.1 vs 0.0

Introduction Today’s trading session showcased a notable shift towards the tech sector, with substantial gains marking the progress of major players like Apple and Amazon. A closer look at today’s stock market heatmap reveals intricate patterns of performance across various sectors, providing valuable insights for investors keen on refining their strategies. Dynamic Growth in Tech

The combination of the US retail sales report for July and comments from Walmart executives are a strong endorsement on the health of the US and global consumer. It’s a company with better data than any US statistics agency and is often candid on what it’s seeing. Here are some quotes from the now-completed conference

Import prices m/m 0.1% vs -0.1% expected and 0.0% prior.Import prices y/y xx% vs 1.6% prior.Export prices m/m 0.7% vs 0.0% expected and -0.5% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Australian labour market report is due at 11.30 am Sydney time 0130 GMT2130 US Eastern time (on Wednesday) The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%. Yesterday a private survey from, Roy Morgan, published their July unemployment report: ‘Real’ unemployment rate surges to 10.1% (up 1.8 percentage points)Total unemployed reaches 1,597,000 (highest

Five economic data reports were released at the same time on Thursday and the picture convincingly showed a healthy consumer and jobs market, with only modest weakening in manufacturing. The main release was the July US retail sales report and it was up 1.0% compared to +0.3% expected. There was a modest 0.2 pp revision

US July CPI +2.9% vs +3.0% y/y expectedEIA weekly crude oil inventories +1357K vs -2200K expectedUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 9 August +16.8% vs +6.9% priorEyes on the whales with 13F filings due Markets: S&P 500 up 0.4%WTI crude oil down $1.19 to $77.16US 10-year yields down 2.1 bps to 3.83% Gold down $18 to

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr spoke in a TV interview, basically repeating what he has been saying since the meeting yesterday. In a nutshell: to proceed with caution in adjusting interest ratesprice behaviour is in line with low inflationremoving monetary policy restraint is appropriate for the time being Earlier today: Reserve Bank New

Prior was +0.6% (revised to +0.3%)Manufacturing output -0.3% vs -0.2% expectedPrior manufacturing output +0.4% (revised to 0.0%)Capacity utilization 77.8% vs 78.5% expected (78.8% prior) This is on the cool side and combined with the Philly Fed today raises some questions about the industrial side of the economy, though I’m reminded that hurricane effects could be

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady rise ever since the last week’s US Jobless Claims as the data quelled the fears around the labour market following the weak NFP report. The “growth scare” triggered by the ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak NFP report looks to be behind us for now.

23 of 25 economists forecast a 25 bps rate cut in October nextOf the remaining two, one anticipates a 50 bps rate cut and the other no change23 of 25 economists forecast the RBNZ to cut by at least 50 bps to 4.75% by year-endThe remaining two expect the cash rate to be cut to

Downside risk for US employment, magnitude of September Fed interest rate cut in questionChina’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says PPI deflation will narrow in months aheadUBS says doesn’t see reason for 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in SeptChina July data: Retail sales +2.7% y/y (expected +2.6). Industrial production +5.1% y/yJapan’s Economy

Fundamental Overview The price action in the Russell 2000 has been mostly rangebound in the past couple of weeks although the sentiment continues to favour more upside. The “growth scare” after the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the NFP report looks to be behind us thanks to the US Jobless Claims last week. This week we

Initial jobless claims 227K vs 235K expected and 233K prior.Continuing jobless claims 1864K vs 1875K expected and 1875K prior. This should reinforce further the views that the July NFP report might have been indeed skewed negatively by Hurricane Beryl and that the labour market continues to be resilient. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

The bank injected 577 bn yuan in 7 day reverse repos instead today. The Bank says this is meant to counteract the maturing MLF loans, tax payments, and government bond issuance. 401bn yuan of MLF come due This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Another strong employment report from Australia. Employment +58.2k expected +20.0k, prior +50.2k Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.1%, prior 4.1% Participation Rate 67.1% expected 66.9%, prior 66.9% Full Time Employment +60.5k prior + 43.3k While the unemployment rate rose, so did jobs added – the higher participation rate will be pointed at for the jobless jump.

Nomura on the Bank of Japan: see the December monetary policy meeting as the most likely date for the next interest rate increaseBOJ will hike then even if inflation “trends sideways without rising”, Nomura cite the Bank’s July “Summary of opinions”, saying it signalled a shift among policymakers; that the Board still view monetary conditions

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Bloomberg: says he is growing more concerned about employment — His comments are crossing various news wires, but we had the story earlier: Fed’s Goolsbee: Rising unemployment may indicate worsening job market This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We heard from Goolsbee last week and there isn’t much new here: Would focus much more on employment if job market weakensPolicy is ‘very restrictive’ economy not overheatingEconomic conditions will warrant size of rate cuts This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 mark. That continues from yesterday and there will be large expiries at the figure level in play again tomorrow. As such, the expiries could offer a bit of a pull factor in

I posted earlier on the view from Nomura, looking for a December 2024 rate hike from the Bank of Japan, even if inflation doesn;t rise! Nomura say around 150 is now the ceiling for USD/JPY. Forecast a BOJ rate hike in December Snippet from Barclays, a contrasting view, saying the Bank needs to see higher

Oil was impressive on Monday but it was driven by a few factors: Data showing net positioning extremely bearishMiddle Eastern war worriesOPEC demand data stronger than feared That led to a jump higher in crude to the best levels since July 22 but since then, global growth worries have crept back into crude, sapping it

The employment market in Australia continues its strong trend, with 58K jobs added in July. The jobless rate rose a tick to 4.2%the participation rate hit a new high at 67.2%Underemployment rate 6.3% (prior was 6.4%) Underutilisation rate 10.6% (prior was 10.5%) AUD/USD update: Earlier: HSBC favors long AUD/NZD following RBNZ rate cut This article

There was a bit of a push and pull after the US CPI report yesterday but Wall Street ended up with a positive close. The Nasdaq was flat though and we’re seeing some light struggles in tech now again. On the other hand, Walmart just reported its Q2 earnings and that was a beat on

Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2024 13F filing reveals some shifts in the Oracle’s portfolio. Here’s what changed in that data, which reflects June 30 holdings: New Positions: Buffett initiated stakes in HEIA (1.04 million shares) and ULTA (0.69 million shares), signaling interest in new sectors. Buying Spree: Significantly boosted SIRI holdings to 132.88 million shares from

Chelsea Football Club and TMGM are excited to announce a multi-year extension of their partnership. Having worked together since 2023, TMGM continues its position as the club’s Official Regional Online Forex and Trading Partner in the Asia-Pacific region. As an industry leader with offices on three continents, TMGM is renowned for its reliability in CFD

Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. You’ll note in the screen shot the Food Price Index data also. Earlier we had further comments from RBNZ Governor Orr Reserve Bank New Zealand Governor Orr: Definitely moving the right direction on inflation Now this data and the kiwi $ remains basically

The People’s Bank of China set its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate on the 15th of each month. The rate is currently 2.3%, after the PBoC lobbed in a surprise cut on the 25th of last month! People’s Bank of China reduces 1 year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate to 2.3%“PBOC surprises markets with an

The latest US CPI report was published on Wednesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to cool JP Morgan in response: the CPI is a ‘green light’ for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut in September (the meeting is on Sep 18 and 19)the Fed may cut 50bp, or 25bp JPM on

Reuters survey of Japanese firms, their Japan Corporate Survey. Headlines via Reuters:… China and US politics outranking JPY intervention. Sheesh: 13% of firms considering scaling back China operation vs 3% thinking about expansionJapanese firms believe Kamala Harris better for business as us president43% of firms see Harris as better for business vs 8% favouring Trump24%

The US CPI report was a decent one: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to cool Snippet from MS: CPI data was not ‘as cool as yesterday’s PPI”but the as-expected CPI likely will not rock the boatthe primary question is whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in Septemberif

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2% After a poor start to August trading, European indices are still on the recovery path. And the recent steadiness in the market mood is definitely helping. US futures are also seen a touch higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% currently. It will be

Prior +0.4%Services -0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior +0.3%Industrial output +0.8% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior +0.2%; revised to +0.3%Manufacturing output +1.1% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior +0.4%; revised to +0.3%Construction output +0.5% vs -0.1% m/m expectedPrior +1.9%; revised to +1.7% The monthly reading doesn’t mean much on a day like this, when the focus is more on

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 103 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 71 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 48 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 72 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

German DAX futures +0.3%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This comes with US futures also holding a touch higher on the day. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2%, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%, and Dow futures up 0.2% currently. The reaction to the US CPI report yesterday was a little more subdued given the

RBNZ Governor Orr Current economic environment is weakEconomy weaker than anticipated six months ago We have strong control over the inflation storyNo talk on committee of raising rates againWe are not done yet on inflation but definitely moving in right directionIf inflation expectations well anchored we can look through some noise Kiwi $ is barely

The labour market is weakening “but not weak”As price pressures ease, officials need to be conscious of their mandate of maintaining full employment The narrative now is that the Fed is slowly conforming to market expectations for a rate cut next month. I reckon Powell should reaffirm that at Jackson Hole next week. However, they’re

Prior +0.7%GDP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.3% Looking at the breakdown, household consumption contributed +0.12%, government consumption +0.30%, and gross capital formation +2.38% on the quarter. That is partially offset by a fall in net trade (-2.20%). Overall, it still points to a solid showing in Q2 for the UK economy. And that has

For once, USD/JPY is settling within a 50 pips range so far on the day. Overall, the reaction to the US CPI report yesterday has been rather underwhelming. The dollar did nudge a little lower while stocks climbed but not by a whole lot. Then again, traders are pricing between a 25 bps and 50

The beat for retail sales is going to be read as slightly better news on household consumption/demand. The other two headline data points are both misses though. Industrial output has dribbled lower compared to the previous month for the third consecutive month. A spokesperson for China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says China’s economy was

The US CPI report from Wednesday, ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to cool Earlier: JP Morgan says the Fed has a green light for a 50bp rate cut in Sep. Here’s the trigger.Morgan Stanley flag potential 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Septembr rate cut UBS weigh in: The inflation data has

Hopes are up, again, for stimulus from China after the most recent data, which continues the theme of e=unevenn recovery: China July data: Retail sales +2.7% y/y (expected +2.6). Industrial production +5.1% y/y National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) with remarks: Economic recovery trend needs to be consolidatedExpects recovery in consumption to consolidate as policies gain

The US CPI data is here ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to cool And thoughts of a 50bp interest rate cut are gathering pace (we are a fickle lot aren’t we?): JP Morgan says the Fed has a green light for a 50bp rate cut in Sep. Here’s the trigger.Morgan Stanley flag

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia MI Inflation Expectations for August 2024 come in at 4.5% Previous was 4.3% The focus is on the jpobs data due real soon: Australian jobs report due 15 August 2024, the unemployment rate will not be 10.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese GDP for the April to June quarter of 2024 is better than the contraction in Q1. +0.8% q/q expected 0.5%, prior -0.6% QQ Annualised is +3.1% expected +2.1%, prior -2.3% Private consumption q/q +1.0% … up for the first time in 5 quarters expected +0.5%, prior -0.6% External demand q/q -0.1% expected -0.1%, prior

No end in sight for the woes besetting China’s property market. July house prices -0.7% m/m and -4.9% y/y priors -0.6% and -4.5% respectively Why buy now when they’ll be cheaper later is the vicious circle This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

HSBC recommends going long on AUD/NZD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25 basis point rate cut to 5.25%, citing the central bank’s dovish stance as a key factor. Key Points: RBNZ Rate Cut: The RBNZ cut its rate by 25bps to 5.25%, which was not entirely unexpected given the market

TS on the US dollar, this in summary recent Fed pivot has caused the dollar to depreciate since the start of Julymuch of this has been against the Japanese Yen, which has climbed approximately 10% over the past month, as the BOJ takes a different path of finally raising interest rates We think the greenback

It’s a busy one on the economic calendar. China’s economy is sputtering: the epic property crunch is now in its third year,burned by the property meltdown and lingering trauma of the pandemic, Chinese consumers are keeping a tight grip on their wallets local government finances are under severe strain private-sector confidence is in the doldrums

I very much doubt the speech will move the financial market needle much at all. In summary of the info received so far on what’s to be said: focusing her economic agenda on reducing the cost of groceries, housing, and healthcare, expanding the child tax credit, and differentiating herself from Republican Donald Trump on tariffs

What’s Warren Buffett holding? We will get a much better idea of what the Berkshire Hathaway CEO and other whales are holding as the 13F filing deadline hits. Tomorrow is 45 days following the end of the quarter, which means the forms that show holdings as of June 30 are due today. Expect a wave

On Thursday, the focus of US markets will shift from inflation to the health of the consumer. Interest rates are biting with a smattering of large companies reporting softening spending, including Home Depot and McDonald’s. Spending so far appears to be hurting most in rate-sensitive spaces but could quickly spread if consumers retrench. So far

The yen is liking the news: Japanese PM Kishida will not run for reelection in LDP race in September Kishida is said to be stepping down in response to funding scandals he is taking responsibility for. I’m not totally across Japanese election funding scandals (apart from knowing rule 1 of funding scandals anywhere is “don’t

Earlier: Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce cash rate cut to 5.25%NZD/USD marked lower after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate I’m glad I got my forecast the right way! RBNZ Governor Orr doesn’t wait around for a bazillion confirmations, he just goes and gets it done. A bit like Wheeler

It’s been an uneventful pre-market and relatively steady since the close yesterday. There was a slight ‘sell the fact’ trade after CPI that was met with dip buyers. Futures are now 7 point higher, or 0.1%. One stock in focus is Alphabet after Bloomberg reported that US regulators are considering breaking it up. This article

Gold is down 1% today after a third failure near $2475. It’s still higher on the week after it shot up on Monday but it couldn’t get through the July highs and has since retreated. A big part of that is the market walking back its Fed rate cut expectations. What’s hard to square is

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. For the Fed, the market is split between a 25 and 50 bps cut in September and a total of 107

The market is feeling better and better about a recovery from the August rout. AI stocks are rebounding and the market is confident that the economy isn’t so bad and that if it is, the Fed will be there. I worry that the bond market is sending a different signal but the message could simple

The market continues to ratchet down bets on the Federal Reserve rapidly easing interest rates. September Fed fund futures are now priced for a 56% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut. That’s a far cry from just last week when market watchers were talking about

This piece is from analyst Michael Pascoe here is Australia, arguing that a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut is likely on the horizon despite all the tough tough from Governor Bullock last week. Check it out here: The Reserve Bank fibs and has no idea about wages causing inflation The key points: RBA

The euro is now back to flat on the year. It opened at 1.1036, fell as low as 1.0601 on April 15 and has now climbed all the way back. There is some resistance at the December high of 1.1139 followed by last year’s high at 1.1276. The latest leg of EUR/USD is more about

Major currencies are lightly changed for the most part, with only the New Zealand dollar on the move so far today. That owes to a more dovish RBNZ as they become the sixth central bank among the G10 to cut interest rates in the latest cycle. The Fed looks primed to be the seventh of

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. The UK CPI this morning missed estimates across the board as well and raised the probabilities of a back-to-back cut in

It was around ~36% before that so it is a notable step up in terms of market pricing. And it sounds just about right to be honest. The overall report was a soft one by all means. Core annual inflation eased further, although is still above the 3% mark. But services inflation, one of the

What’s the bond market saying here? The July-August plunge in Treasury yields was understandable enough as the carry trade unwound, AI worries hit and shorts were squeezed. That’s all faded away in other markets this week and yet yields are still falling. Yes, some of that is falling inflation as illustrated by today’s CPI report

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.5% This follows the more solid showing by US indices yesterday, ending roughly at the highs for the day. So, European equities look buoyed as well coming into today and UK stocks will be happy with the latest inflation numbers here. US futures are more muted though, keeping flattish

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is at 0200 GMT Wednesday, which is 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday evening. Earlier previews: RBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cutANZ forecast the RBNZ to remain on hold next week, signal a rate cut later in

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.9% That’s a miss alongside a negative revision to boot. But at least it doesn’t take away from the Q2 GDP number released at the same time. Here is the breakdown for those interested: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: UK July CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expectedTraders now see BOE decision in September to be a coin flipThe kiwi is the main mover today amid dovish RBNZWhat are the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)What is the market

Final numbers for today: German DAX, +0.4%France CAC +0.6%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%Spain’s Ibex +0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.9% The recovery from the early-August rout continues. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his take on today’s CPI and he says: September rate cut from the Fed as close to a lock as these things getThis report makes it easier at the margin to avoid dissents on the first cutTo get 50 bps, you’d probably need to see something bad

Prior was -3728KGasoline -2894K vs -1434K expectedDistillates -1673K vs -636K expectedRefinery utilization +1.0% vs +0.1% expectedProduction mbpd 13.3mbpd vs 13.4mbpd prior API data late yesterday showed: Crude -5205KGasoline -3689KDistillates +612K Oil ticked lower on the EIA headlines, which are certainly a twist after the bullish private numbers yesterday. WTI was flat at $78.17 just before

Announcement is here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce cash rate cut to 5.25% NZD/USD lower: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +6.9%Market index 251.3 vs 215.1 priorPurchase index 137.7 vs 133.9 priorRefinance index 889.3 vs 661.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.54% vs 6.55% prior The big jump in the past week comes as we see a spike in refinancing activity in particular. That comes as the average rate of the most popular US home loan came

Prior was +3.0% y/ym/m reading at +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded +0.1549% Core measures: Core CPI +3.2 vs +3.2% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedCore unrounded +0.166%Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs +0.3% prior Supercore m/m +0.205% vs +0.054% priorSupercore y/y +4.468% vs +4.651% prior Key Details: Shelter index rose 0.4%, accounting for nearly 90%

Today’s stock market offers a vibrant tapestry of performances, with notable advancements in technology stocks counterbalanced by slight retreats in various other sectors. This heatmap snapshot provides actionable insights into the nuanced dynamics dominating today’s trading landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin continues to be a solid pre-cursor to the broader risk trade. And if you’re long stocks, that’s not a good thing at the moment. BTC has turned lower after an initial pop following CPI and is now just above $60,000. US equities are flat after giving up some modest early gains. This article was

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.2 mn barrelsDistillates -0.6 mn bblsGasoline -1.4 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The days of CPI as a major market mover are over. As I suspected, there was something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade on the numbers. The headlines were lower than the consensus but the dollar didn’t fall, nor did Treasury yields. Instead, they both rose, though modestly. The move in bonds has stuck but

No changes to the initial estimate as the euro area economy is seen expanding slightly in Q2. The economic challenge has become tougher in Q3 though, with fears surrounding a contraction or at least stagnation continuing to build. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Bostic is speaking and says: Balance of risks in economy is getting back to levelOur rate posture is restrictiveThat’s not where we want it to be foreverRecent inflation data give me more confidence we can get back to 2%. We need to see a little more data We need to make sure inflation trend

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a larger headline crude oil draw than was expectedIt is a solid day for US indices. Indices close the day near highs with PPI the catalyst.Rick Reider: Market cleaned out a lot of leveraged positionsCrude oil futures settled at $78.35Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic: Balance of risks and economy

The consensus on today’s CPI is 3.0% y/y with core at 3.2% but I suspect it’s going to have to be well-below that to keep yields falling and stocks going up. The market front-run a soft (or at least in-line) CPI when yesterday’s PPI was released and has continued to pile in after UK CPI.

Whether just starting a trading journey or being a veteran of twenty years, everybody has something to learn as an investor. Knowledge is always at a premium, and this is why its developed into such a strong area of focus at the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS), coming this August 27-29 in Sydney, Australia.

Prior +2.0%Core CPI +3.3% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.5% The standout detail here is a further drop in core annual inflation in July. The headline reading is also lower than estimated but is a slight increase to June. But as core prices are seen easing further, that’s a vote of confidence for the BOE to

We went from pricing a soft landing to a crash landing and then back to something in between that now. Traders were pretty sure the Fed needed to cut by 50 bps and perhaps even via an emergency meeting on Monday last week. Yes, that was just a little over a week ago. Talk about

Prime Minister Kishida press conference. He is announcing he won’t be running to stay on as PM. To make full exit from deflation-prone economy, we must promote wage, investment growth and achieve target to expand size of Japan’s GDP to 600 trln yenImportant to show new face of LDP in leadership raceFirst step to do

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. That led to a key breakout in the NZDUSD pair which didn’t last as the RBNZ tonight cut rates by 25

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prelimPrior +2.5% The good news is that core annual inflation is seen slowing further to 1.5%, down from 1.8% in June. That will give the ECB more confidence at least in chasing the next rate cut. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US CPI report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

Later today, Wednesday, 14 August, we get the US consumer inflation data. for July 2024due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Here’s what investment banks expect. This via the Wall Street Journal, posted here earlier. — Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in

There are a couple of expiries to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0925 and 1.1035 levels. They former lies near the 200-hour moving average, so there is some technical significance there. However, price action today is largely going to be dictated by the reaction to the US

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr is scheduled to speak at 0000 GMT (this is 1900 US Eastern time on Thursday) at the Wellington Chamber of Commerce in New Zealand The RBNZ decision is due at the top of the hour. Earlier previews: Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision due soon. Which will

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% For UK stocks, investors are also cheering on the softer inflation numbers earlier here. Despite the more optimistic picture above, US futures are more muted on the day thus far. S&P 500 futures are flat as there is a more tentative

Fundamental Overview The Yen continues to struggle despite the dovish expectations around the Fed’s interest rates path. Yesterday, we got a big downside surprise in the US PPI report and although the USD weakened heavily against the other major currencies, the JPY failed to sustain the gains. One of the main reasons is that the

Nomura with remarks on the US equity markets and the Federal Reserve. On equities: downside risk has dropped, says Nomura cite macro hedge funds buying into the pullback … if not for these the softness would have been prolongedAlso, “We think the downside risk posed to U.S. equities by systematic investors is much less serious

Chief operating officer of Balckstone spoke on CNBC on TRuesday: US economy has been resilient but now there are signs of a slow downpointed specifically to weaker consumer sectorsays with inflation coming down, including in rental housing, the Federal Reserve could help the economy with rate cuts”… as this slowdown continues it gives the Fed

Market pricing is for a 29bp cut at the next RBNZ meeting, on October 9 and 67bp of cuts by November (meeting is Nov. 6) That is, a 25 bp rate cut is priced for the each of the next two meetings. NZD/USD update: Earlier: ICYMI – RBNZ cut its cash rate by 25bp, market

The main event in the European session was the UK CPI report which missed expectations across the board and incresed the probability of a back-to-back cut in September. There’s not much else for the rest of the session as we will just get the Eurozone industrial production and the second estimate of the Q2 GDP.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Orr: confident inflation back in its target band can commence re-normalising rateswe considered a range of moves and consensus was for 25bpsprojections are NZ is headed towards a period of low and stable inflationbroad range of indicators are consistently soft Reasonable first step for monetary easing, in strong position to

Here is what the investment bank economists and analysts are expecting for the July inflation, CPI, data from the US due on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) Info via a tweet from Nick Timiraoos at the Wall Street Journal: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seem on a

Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its Offical Cash Rate by 25 bps. Market pricing had tipped this, while most analyst did not. Added – a few tech gremlins have beset me … I’ve posted all the statement and minutes main points separately, here: ICYMI – RBNZ cut its cash rate by 25bp, market

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey: August manufacturers sentiment +10, July was +11May non-manufacturers sentiment +24 vs +26 in JulyNovember manufacturers index seen at +5, non-manufacturers at +26 Japanese manufacturers’ confidence slightly dipped in August. Its expected to dip further in the months ahead. This sentiment

US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)RBNZ Governor Orr: Confident inflation back in its target bandJapan Kishida: Must promote wage, investment growth for full exit deflation-prone economyMarket pricing is for an Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut at its next meeting tooICYMI – RBNZ cut its

That is putting a major drag on NZD/USD, which is down over 1% to near 0.6000 currently. Given the more dovish signals, traders are now pricing in ~107 bps of rate cuts by year-end. There’s still just three meetings to go, in September, November, and December. While the “expectation” is for the RBNZ to stay

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Media in Japan with the political bombshell news that Japanese PM Kishida will not run for re-election in the ruling party leadership race in September. By dropping out of the race to remain leader of his party he will step down as premier, local media reported. The JPY is strengthening a little on the news.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is at 0200 GMT Wednesday, which is 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday evening. Earlier previews: Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet today – BNZ calls for an immediate rate cutRBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cutANZ forecast

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices got a boost from lower-than-expected PPI data. Tomorrow the CPI will be released. The PPI data does not necessarily translate into the CPI, but there is some crossover to the PCE data that will be released later this month. Tomorrow, CPI is expected to show a 0.2% gain after a -0.1%

Still like equities , but we have come a long way pretty quicklyCan evolve the portfolio and have a bit less equities at these multiplesYou can get a lot of yield without going out on the yield curveThinks the Fed cuts rates at September meetingPersonally I think the fed funds rate is priced wrongI would

1310 GMT, which is 0910 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy 1710 GMT, which is 1310 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker The docket of Fed speakers has been light, and it’ll continue to be light

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Goldman Sachs just a little wary over some of the weaker economic data. Says a US recession is not priced in and there are signs of a slowdown in Europe and Chinaadd the recent softening in the US labor market But, says GS, equity markets are still positioned optimistically: cyclical stocks have underperformed during the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is at 0200 GMT Wednesday, which is 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday evening. Earlier previews: RBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cutANZ forecast the RBNZ to remain on hold next week, signal a rate cut later in

Sec. of State Blinkin has postponed his trip he Middle East. He was expected to leave for the region tonight, but postponed due to the uncertainty about the situation. This news is according to Axios citing sources. There is also increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $78.35, which is down -$1.71 or -2.14%. The high price today reached $80.11 which was just short of the 100-day MA (blue line on the chart below). Yesterday, the price approached that MA and found willing sellers as well. On the downside, the 200-day MA (green line) looms at

The NZDUSD is on a run. Today, the price moved above and away from the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6020. It moved above the 100 day MA and the 61.8% retracement at 0.6036 area, and more recently, a swing level going back to early July at 0.60627. The next key target

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures also a touch higher on the day. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with Nasdaq futures up 0.3% and Dow futures up 0.2%. The litmus test for broader market sentiment will come later today in the form of the US PPI data. So,

The European indices are dragged higher by the US stocks, but gains are more subdued. While the S&P index is up 1.33% and the NASDAQ is now up 2.0%, the biggest gain in Europe was Spain’s Ibex which increased by 0.73%. The other indices were more subdued. The final numbers are showing: German DAX, +0.48%

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Today’s trading session showcased a dynamic performance across various sectors, with a notable surge in technology stocks leading the way. The market heatmap reveals a robust advancement in semiconductor and key tech players, fostering a buoyant sentiment among investors. As sectors vary in performance, understanding these dynamics can provide key

The AUDUSD has stretched higher today on the USD selling and risk on flows, and in the price is moving away from the 100 and 200 day MAs. Over the last 3-days, the price has been briefly moving above those MAs and backing off. The market has not been ready. Finally, the price has been

The sabers are rattling… Iran is said to be holding military drills in the northern part of the country, and on the sea holding Navy drills in the Caspian Sea near Azerbaijan. Earlier today, Hezbollah lobbed some bombs from Gaza that were ineffective. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady rise since the latter part of last week alongside crude oil which suggests that the price action might have been driven more by the tensions in the Middle East. That became even more evident yesterday as we got a Fox report saying that Iran could have attacked

The USDCAD has found support buyers near 1.3717 and resistance sellers near the 50% of the move up from the July low to the August high. That level comes in at 1.3766. The price has been between those extremes since middday on August 7th (4 trading days). The range is only around 50 pips. At

The USDJPY stalled the rally near a swing area earlier today near 147.886. The subsequent fall helped by the tamer US PPI data took the price toward the rising 100 hour MA (blue line at 147.037). The move below that level, opened the door for the lower 200 hour MA at 146.67. The low just

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 bounced strongly from the lows last week following the good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report. That’s been also evident from the market pricing for rate cuts as expectations for a 50 bps cut

From major financial institutions to individual investors, participants in the $7.5 trillion per day forex market rely on dedicated intermediaries to access this vast and complex ecosystem. Operating behind the scenes but fulfilling a vital role, forex brokers have become the crucial conduit between regular traders across the world and the fluid currency markets they

The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed with gains vs the CHF and JPY balanced by declines vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The EURUSD and USDCAD are little changed. The US PPI data will be reported today at 8:30 AM ET

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo pushed back against the narrative that the US economy is slowing. “.. there are still no signs of a US recession, and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in .. restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data,” he wrote. “In short, Fed pricing

Besides the classic “as expected,” one of the analysts’ favorite phrases is “markets are talking.” This means that significant price changes could indicate that something major is coming. For example, if investors anticipate an increase in geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains or oil or gas production, the dollar index, gold, and even Treasury

In the kickstart video earlier today, the 38.2% and the falling 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart was holding resistance at 1.2810. Getting above that level and the 200 bar MA at 1.2819 would open the door, and that is what happened. The move has taken the price to 1.2829. The 50% of the

A market leader in providing liquidity solutions, X Open Hub, has confirmed its involvement in one of the largest online trading, fintech and crypto events in Asia-Pacific (APAC), announcing its role as an official exhibitor at the inaugural FMPS:24. The company will have a strong presence at the expo, shining a spotlight on its innovative

Prior was 1410 (revised to 3430)Overseas visitors change y/y +3.8% vs +12.1% prior NZD was trading at 0.6587 ahead of the data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD broke above targeted swing area between 10949 and 1.09477, and extended to the next target near 1.0963. Sellers leaned on the first look of that level. The short term support is now between 1.0942 and 1.09477. I would expect buyers to lean against that level. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

I’m cautious on risk assets at the moment but I can see the case for optimism: 1) The Fed put is there. It worked last week. 2) The recessionary winds are blowing but you can’t underestimate the US consumer 3) Certainly a better entry point than it’s been 4) AI has run a long way

This will go down as one of the all-time crazy headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 2.6% YoY revised to 2.7%Ex Food and energy MoM 0.0% vs 0.2% estimateEx Food and energy YoY 2.4% vs 2.7% estimate. Prior month 3.0%Ex Food and Energy/Trade 3.3% vs 3.2% (revised from 3.1%Ex Food and Energy/Trade MoM 0.3% vs 0.1% last month (revised from 0.0%) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

The USDCHF moved above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the August low both yesterday and again today. The US PPI data came in weaker pushing the price back to the downside, but support nearly 100 hour moving average at 0.8646 currently did attract some buying. In the short-term,

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading sharply higher and in the process making technical brakes to the upside. What are the next key targets? What are the close risks for each. I will go through each in this short video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

That’s the highest reading since February 2022 but it still sits below the 50-year average of 98. That’s the 31st straight month that it holds below said threshold now. Looking at the details, much of the improvement owes to a jump in the Expected Business Conditions component (+1.8) though while most other components were relatively

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark again. So, that will help to keep a floor on price action at least until we get to the US PPI data later in the day. Similarly, the ones for AUD/USD

Prior was +0.8%Wage price index y/y +4.1% vs +4.0% expectedPrior was +4.1% y/y The numbers are a tad cooler than expected, which should continue to tilt the market towards a rate cut. The first one is nearly fully priced now for December. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 970k bpd2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 950k bpd (previously 980k bpd)Chinese oil demand has contracted for third consecutive monthWeak growth in China now significantly dragging on global gainsOPEC+ cuts are tightening physical marketsCould see a supply deficit as US summer driving season is set

In the kickstart video for August 13, I take a look at through the major currency pairs – the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The US PPI data came in tamer than expectations thanks to a fall in service prices. That helped to send the USD lower. What did it

In a Reuters poll: The US 10-year yield to rise to 4.03% in three months. At the last poll the expectation was 4.25% (rates were higher at the time). The current 10 year yield is at 3.861%US 2-year yield to rise to 4.20% in 3 months. Last month, the expectation was for the yield to

US stocks close mixed. Dow down. S&P unchanged. Nasdaq higher.Crude oil futures settle at $80.06, up $3.22 or 4.19%US federal budget deficit for July -$244.00 billion versus -$242.00 billion estimateUS yields are trading lower (at new lows for the day)Crude trade above $79. Highest level since July 19Latest election poll: Harris 47.6% vs Trump 47.1%Geopolitics:

The major US stock indices are opening higher led by the NASDAQ index. A snapshot of the market 4 minutes into the open is currently shows: Dow Industrial Average 195.31 points or 0.50% at 39552.33S&P index is trading up 43.85 points or 0.82% at 5388.23. NASDAQ index of 205.59 points or 1.23% at 16986.20 The

US July NFIB small business optimism index 93.7 vs 91.5 priorThe risk mood continues to hold up, eyes on US PPI data laterGermany August ZEW survey current conditions -77.3 vs -75.0 expectedIEA makes no change to 2024 world oil demand growth forecast in latest reportEuropean equities open on a more positive note as risk mood

Israel media is reporting of explosions heard in Tel Aviv. Hamas armed wing is also saying that it has targeted Tel Aviv with two rockets.A Gaza rocket landed off Tel Aviv coast. There are no casualties reported Crude oil is trading at $79.60 which is down $0.46 on the day. The high price today reached

Prior +3.4%HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +3.6% The good news is that core annual inflation is seen easing further to 2.8%, down from 3.0% in June. But it is still taking a while to recede towards the 2% mark, so there’s that. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

August 5 was the worst day in the history of the Nikkei 225 index as it cratered 12%. Just over one week later, that decline is now fully erased. The index is up 2.5% today as Japan returns from a long weekend. That puts it back at the closing level on August 4. The bad

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows last week following the good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report. That’s been also evident from the market pricing for rate cuts as expectations for a 50 bps cut in

Prior was -1.1%Index rises to 85 “Consumers breathed a small sign of relief in August as the RBA Board left interest rates unchanged and the support coming from tax cuts and otehr fiscal measures became more apparent,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. Particular strength came in the ‘family finances’ section, which jumped 11.7%. This

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.2% It’s a positive start to proceedings, with USD/JPY also trading up to fresh highs for the day at around 147.90 currently. It’s more of the same flows that we saw from yesterday, with markets continuing to breathe easier for now. The

The EURUSD and the GBPUSD both bounced off key hourly moving averages on the US session dip. The EURUSD bounced off its 100-hour MA at 1.0920. The 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the August low is also near that level. Staying above is more bullish going forward.The GBPSD and soffits 200-hour moving average at

Eamonn is off today so I’m on the Asia-Pacific shift. Japan is back today from a long weekend and hopefully the extra day of rest will keep Tokyo from coming unnerved again. Broader sentiment has been ok in US trading, save for Middle East war worries. In terms of economic data we start with: New

The major US stock indices are ending the day mixed with the Dow down, the S&P near unchanged and the Nasdaq index modestly higher. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average -140.55 points or -0.36% at 39357.00S&P index rose 0.23 points or -0.0% at 5344.38NASDAQ index rose 35.31 points or 0.21% at 16780.61

It is pretty much the case of markets just letting out a sigh of relief. That after all the overblown panic in calling for emergency rate cuts on Monday last week. It’s a meme market these days. When things are going their way, it’s all bullish and life is good. But when a retracement or

Prior -68.9Outlook 19.2 vs 32.0 expectedPrior 41.8 The reading marks a setback to the slight German economic recovery earlier in the year. Meanwhile, the outlook is also worsening with ZEW noting that expectations for export-intensive German sectors are on the decline. That is not helped by worsening climates for the euro area, US, and also

The Japanese Lower House will hold a special session and likely ask BOJ Governor Ueda to attend, according to sources cited by Reuters. No doubt he will be grilled on the unexpected 15 bps hike and the turmoil that followed. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The question for the gold market is: How much of today’s rally close to a record high was fear of a Middle East war and how much was other fundamentals? So far in Asia, the ‘other’ category is winning. An Axios report said an attack was unlikely tonight and we’ve seen no pullback in gold.

The USDJPY has moved lower as the day comes to a close and in the process is moving closer to near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages. In the new trading day, if the price can stay above those moving averages, the bias would remain more positive. Conversely, break below and look for more

Fitch lowered Israel’s credit rating to ‘A’ from ‘A+’ on Monday, citing worsening geopolitical risks. It continues to hold a negative outlook. “In our view, the conflict in Gaza could last well into 2025 and ther are risks of it broadening to other fronts,” Fitch said in a statement. Fitch expects Israel to permanently increase

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its forecast for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike rates in January 2025, aligning with their broader strategy that includes expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. They emphasize that the recent yen appreciation aligns with their projections based on interest rate differentials. Key Points: BoJ Hike Expected in January: Morgan Stanley

Fundamental Overview As many other markets, crude oil bottomed out around last Monday as growth fears abated and started to slowly gain ground following catalysts like the appointment of the new Hamas leader and good US jobless claims. Yesterday we got another strong wave of buying as we got a Fox report saying that Iran

The main event in the European session was the UK labour market report which surprised to the upside although there’s the usual reliability issue. Next, we will have the Eurozone ZEW which is expected to dip to 38.0 vs. 43.7 prior. In the American session, we will get the US NFIB Small Business Optimism index

Prior 4.4%Employment change 97k vs 3k expectedPrior 19kAverage weekly earnings +4.5% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.7%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.4% vs +5.4% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.7%July payrolls change 24kPrior 16k; revised to 14k The headline statistic is quite bewildering and it paints a stronger labour market than in the months before. That being said, ONS

It’s coming up on midnight in Israel so if we’re likely to see an Iranian attack, it should come in the next six hours. Fox reported earlier that an attack was expected within 24 hours and that led to spikes in gold and oil. If/when the attacks happen, look for more of that along with

If you need a sign of how market players are feeling after the carry trade angst, the Nikkei is a pretty good gauge. The index closes up by 3.5% today to above 36,000. But the real test this week is still to come, with the US CPI report due tomorrow. This article was written by

The overnight high touched 148.22 for a brief moment but price action is settling back under the 148.00 level for now. The rebound in the pair since the middle of last week comes as the unwinding of carry trades have eased. The overall risk mood in broader markets also improved concurrently, allowing for USD/JPY buyers

Bitcoin is up about 1% in early trade today at $59,500. That’s just normal volatility for crypto but there could also be a premium in it with Elon Musk set to interview Donald Trump any time now. The conversation could shift to crypto and some could be trying to front-run that momentum. In any case,

Prior was +2.9%Prices +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior m/m +0.2% No surprise here but it will be interesting to see how the rapid jump in the yen will filter through to prices in the month’s ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +4Business confidence +1 vs +4 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are keeping lightly changed overall, with smaller ranges still holding so far today. It will be another placeholder session in Europe more or less, as market players are eyeing key US data this week. Here’s a look at dollar pairs and their daily ranges for now: Looking to the session ahead, UK labour

It’s tough to say why exactly he’s headed to the Middle East but he could know that some kind of Iranian strike is planned. He could also be getting involved in Israel-Hamas negotiations. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan is back from a holiday today and with Nikkei 225 futures up 1.2%, it looks like the index will head into the gap down from early August. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Q2 wage price index +0.8% vs +0.9% expectedJapanese June PPI +3.0% y/y vs +3.0% expectedJuly Australia NAB business conditions +6 vs +4 priorGoldman Sachs sees July US core CPI slightly below estimatesJapan parliament to hold a special session to discuss Bank of Japan rate hikePBOC sets yuan midpoint at 7.1479 vs 7.1744 at the

“U.S. & Israeli officials tell me their assessment is that the Iranian attack isn’t happening tonight,” Axios reporter Barak Ravid reports. h/t @newsquawk This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. July budget deficit: $244 billion, up 10% from a year earlier.Adjusted deficit would be $45 billion narrower due to calendar differences.Deficit increase mainly due to lower benefits outlays last July. Receipts and outlays July receipts: $330 billion, up 20% year-over-year; adjusted increase: 12%.July outlays: $574 billion, up 16%; adjusted outlays would be 1% lower.Interest

The US CPI report is due out on Wednesday and it should add to the case that price pressures are no longer a market preoccupation. Goldman Sachs is out with its estimate of core CPI, which they peg at 0.16%, below the 0.2% unrounded consensus. They continue to see a decline in core goods, which

7.1479 versus the previous fix at 7.1458 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US yields are moving lower and trades at the lowest levels for the day. 2-year yield 4.021%, -3.2 basis points5-year yield 3.751%, -4.5 basis points10 year yield 3.905%, -3.7 basis points30-year yield 4.192%, -3.2 basis points. Flight to safety flows may are contributing to the declines today as chatter about Iran attacking Israel are louder.

The schedule for the Jackson Hole symposium is yet to be published but we now know at least one event. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on Aug 23. The text of the speech will be released at 2000 GMT, according to the BOE. The title and topic are yet to be released

The price of crude oil futures are settling above $80 for the first time since July 18. The price settled at $80.06 up $3.22 or 4.19%. Geopolitical risks are helping to support the price of crude oil as Iran is threatening to retaliate against Israel. Technically, the price moved above its 200-day moving average (green

Level of returns, coupled with flexibility, has been the main reasons driving the ever-growing interest in forex trading. However, one of the most critical decisions a trader must make is picking the right trading platform since it will significantly determine how effective and successful your trading is going to be. The article tends to go

The major US stock indices are opening today mixed. The Dow Industrial Average versus lower. The S&P index is marginally higher while the NASDAQ index is a little better than marginally higher. A snapshot of the major indices nine minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average and is down -79.25 points or -0.20%

As chatter for a retaliatory strike by Iran on Israel get louder, the price of crude oil is stepping higher. The current price is trading at $79.13 up $2.29 or 2.98%. That is the highest level since July 19. Technically, earlier today, the price moved about its 200-day moving average (green line on the chart

Market Overview: Tech’s Prominent Rebound Today’s trading session witnessed a noteworthy rebound in the technology sector, with notable gains in semiconductor and software companies. A glance at the stock market heatmap showcased a diverse performance across other sectors, highlighting the dynamic nature of current market trends. 📈 Semiconductor & Software Giants Lead the Charge The

The NZDUSD moved lower in the early Asian session and in the process found support buyers against its 100 hour moving average. The price bounced and moved toward the high from last Friday’s trade. That high stalled just ahead of its 100 day moving average and 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July

A RCP US election poll sees: Harris 47.6%Trump 47.1% A virtual dead heat. Polls are nice, but it will be the swing states that will likely determine the next president. Key swing states include: WisconsinMichiganOhio PennsylvaniaGeorgiaArizona Both candidates have the potential to win the popular vote but lose election because they lose the swing states

Domestic sight deposits CHF 455.5 bn vs CHF 445.5 bn prior Swiss sight deposits rose in the past week but nothing out of the ordinary from the last few months. Here is the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD is trading to a new high after a test of Friday;s low finds buyers. The price – in the process – has moved back above the 61.8% of the move up from the July low and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.37247 and 1.37287 respectively. The next upside target

As the NA session begins the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains and losses vs the major currencies. It is a bank holiday in Japan today. It is Monday in the rest of the world, and the economic calendar is light. In the US and

US State Department is out saying: Deeply concerned by reports that Iran is planning to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia Such a move would represent a dramatic escalation.We fully expect God is at peace talks to move forward as planned We believe that a cease-fire agreement is still possible Meanwhile Axios is reporting

A looming, or in some cases an apparent economic downturn, combined with a shifting banking atmosphere, underscores the need for a new approach to business banking. What exactly a new era of banking looks like is of course a matter for debate, one that will be on full display at the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific

Fundamental Overview The losses peaked for the Canadian Dollar last Monday as the volatility normalised, and we got some good US data throughout the week. That helped to turn around the risk sentiment and give the Loonie a boost. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as

All the focus and attention this week is on the US CPI report on Wednesday. But just before that, we will be getting the same report from the UK as well. The thing is given base effects, it is estimated that headline annual inflation in the UK is going to increase from 2.0% in June

The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations for July 2024 showed Inflation: Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively.Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply by 0.6 percentage points to 2.3%, the lowest since the survey’s inception in June 2013.Decline in three-year inflation expectations was most significant among respondents

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not too much changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0914USD/JPY 146.56GBP/USD 1.2760USD/CHF 0.8644USD/CAD 1.3727AUD/USD 0.6576NZD/USD 0.5999 This article was written

German DAX futures +0.5%French CAC 40 futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.4% The mood music is helped by the slight gains in US indices at the end of last week too, which nearly saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fully erase losses for the week. For now, the steadier risk mood overall is also helping. S&P

In geopolitical news, Fox news is reporting that Iran could attack Israel in less than 24 hours. The attack is in retaliation for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran late last month. As Western allies in France, Germany and the United Kingdom call on Israel and Hamas to show “no further

The AUDUSD moved higher last week, but after reaching the 100-day moving rigid 0.66018, the buyers and sellers started a battle that has been confined to the following 100 bar moving out on the 4- our chart below (currently at 0.6561), and the 100 day moving average above and 0.66018. The price today is back

Goods and services prices set to rise againWage growth also still a concern for inflationWage pressures could take years to dissipate That said, she mentions that she has personally toned down her own hawkishness from a 10 to a 7 currently. That since the start of the year as price pressures have eased so far

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The moves point to a further relaxing to the carry trade unwind as risk sentiment is keeping steadier. USD/JPY in particular is up 0.5% to 147.30 levels now but is keeping just near the topside of the recent bounce from last week: It’s not much of a suggestion that we are due a stronger retracement

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan spoke on US TV over the weekend. He had a warning for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): the Fed is in a position they have to be careful that they don’t slow down too much He was referring to sowing spending amongst consumers: Well, in our consumer base

As London/European traders look to exit for the day, stocks have turned back to the downside. The S&P is now trading in negative territory by -4.25 points or -0.06%. The NASDAQ index is still higher but only by 21.24 points or 0.12% at 16766. The high price reached 16895 on the last hourly bar.. There

A Japanese market holiday isn’t making it too exciting to start the new week. Overall market action is much calmer, though USD/JPY is creeping a little higher to 147.15 currently. Still, the pair is “only” sitting in a 50 pips range so it pales in comparison to the swings from last week. Besides that, other

Fundamental Overview The Swiss Franc lost some more ground against the USD last Thursday as the US Jobless Claims figures came out better than expected. That helped ease the fears around the US labour market triggered by the weak NFP report and improved the risk sentiment. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive

As the week gets started, the three major currency pairs are getting their feet under them. For the EURUSD and GBPUSD, they are both trading up and down. Meanwhile, buyers in the USDJPY are pushing to the upside and extending above the key 200 hour MA at 147.07. The EURUSD is trading above and below

Tuesday’s key events include several important economic indicators from Australia, such as the Westpac consumer sentiment report, the wage price index q/q, and the NAB business confidence. In the U.K., we’ll see the release of the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the market will

It’s a steady and quiet start to trading this week and understandably so. Market players will be rather pensive, waiting on some big US data in the days ahead. We’ll get a bit of a teaser tomorrow from the PPI report but the big one to watch this week will be the CPI report on

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Saudi crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September by about 3 mn barrelsRBA’s Hauser says there is a risk the unemployment rate could rise faster than assumedChina’s struggling economy overly reliant on exports, 2nd trade war with Trump a nightmareChina doubling down on its overcapacity strategy, digging the economy into a

Fundamental Overview The Yen lost some more ground last Thursday as the US Jobless Claims figures came out better than expected. That helped ease the fears around the US labour market triggered by the weak NFP report and improved the risk sentiment. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to release its latest monthly report on Monday August 12. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. The report provides a detailed analysis of

The market is fighting something of a hangover today after all the drama of the past two weeks. Japan was out for holiday today and the US economic calendar is empty, so it’s a good moment for markets to catch a breather. What’s notable though is that the yen is broadly weaker with USD/JPY up

The USDCHF is stretching to the upside as the market continues to unwind the flight to safety flows that helped to push the USDCHF lower in July. The price bottomed last Monday after the Nikkei fell -12.4%, and the S&P and Nasdaq indices moved down -3.0% and 3.4% respectively. The price has been stepping higher

Headlines: USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout of the rangeDollar trades more mixed as risk sentiment holds up for nowBOE’s Mann says still concerned about upside risks to inflationUS data will keep markets in check for nowOPEC slashes 2024 oil demand growth forecast on softer China outlookGermany July wholesale price index +0.3% vs

I posted a little while back on this forecast from BCA Research: Canada-based BCA Research recently warned that the S&P 500 could fall to 3,750 by early 2025 The firm reiterated this forecast in a report published late lat week: expects stocks to stabilize in the near termsays though that the medium-term direction is to

Hedge funds have been safeguarding against a global economic slowdown via commodity shorts in all likelihood. Bloomberg data showed a net short of 153K contracts across 20 raw-materials markets in the latest week, that’s the most since at least 2011. The positioning is particularly stark in oil, where the net was cut by 110 million

Slight delay in the release by the source. Relative to the same month a year ago, wholesale prices are seen down 0.1%. But the decline has eased compared to June, when prices were down 0.6% compared to the same month in 2023. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters conveying the info, citing several trade sources Saudi crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September to about 43 million barrels, citing monthly allocations for term buyers. September exports to China are estimated to slip about 3 million barrels from about 46 million barrels in August 3 mn barrels over a

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, we don’t have any notable event today. There’s the US consumer inflation expectations survey from the NY Fed in the American session, but that’s not a market moving release. The sentiment in the markets is generally positive as the last Monday’s rout is now in the rear-view mirror

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 99 bps (53% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 72 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Prior was -12.2% (revised to -12.7%)Permits at $9.9 billion vs $11.6 billion priorresidential permits decreased 11.5% to $6.5 billion, led by multi-unitsingle-family homes +4.0% m/mnon-residential sector permits decreased 18.1% following a 21.3% increase in May These are back-to-back monthly drops of 12.7% and 13.9% in Canadian building permits. The condo boom is certainly over with

Last week Jeremy Seigel was lambasted for screaming for a 75bp Federal Reserve emergency rate cut. About that 75 basis point emergency cut… As you’ll see from that linked post, he did pull his head in. I’m not sure what the point of screaming for such a panic move was. unless it was the publicity.

The Wall Street Journal (gated) says Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on imports from China would cause much steeper economic damage to China because the tariffs would be higher and China’s economy is much more vulnerable. The Journal makes the point that China’s export surge is a bright spot for an otherwise struggling economy. (ps. I

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 2.11 mil bpd (previously 2.25 mil bpd)2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.78 mil bpd (previously 1.85 mil bpd) On the change, OPEC says that softening expectations for China’s oil demand is the main reason for that. But the bloc maintains that despite a slow

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. With price action also keeping in between its key hourly moving averages of 1.0890-22 currently, the expiries are likely to help play a role in keeping price movement more limited before rolling

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% The make or break this week will be on the inflation data on Wednesday. While market players will be honed in on the US numbers, I want to say that one shouldn’t underestimate the potential for early shockwaves from the UK

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will

Westpac’s 1 – 3 month view on the Australian dollar, in very brief. This is a great summary of where we are at where we are going: Conditions remain very unsettled, and AUD/USD looks set to remain choppy and challenging. Further “volatility shocks” can’t be ruled out, which would see a retest of the 0.63-0.64

Oil futures markets are about to open. The Israeli Air Force and Military Intelligence Directorate have been placed on High Alert. This follows observations in Western Iran suggesting an imminent attack. Assessments include: Hezbollah will startIran will attack a few hours later Rising tensions in the Middle East are supportive for oil prices at the

Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management spoke on Friday, says upside ahead for equities. Citing: Federal interest-rate cut aheadsolid growth backdrop“Because of this, I think the markets can be supported” “There are also some contrarian buy signals that are emerging.””With economic and earnings fundamentals still good and the

Makoto Sakurai is a former Bank of Japan monetary board member. says the Bank of Japan will not be able to hike again in 2024predicts a rate hike by March 2025 If he is right it’ll be a positive for calming markets and the Nikkei. ps. Today is a market holiday in Japan – closed

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governot Hauser, speaking at an Economic Society of Australia (QLD) event: Economic forecasts are subject to huge uncertainty.Assume inflation stickiness due to weaker supply, labour market tightness.But spare capacity could easily be much higher, or much lower than we assume.Assume unemployment will rise only slowly, but risk of faster increase.Assume

This article is concerning, titled: China’s Real Economic Crisis – Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model Here is the link. It’s a long, long piece, but, in summary: China’s economy is struggling despite the end of zero-COVID policies, with sluggish GDP growth and sagging consumer confidence.The main issue is structural overcapacity in

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

US Defense Secretary Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart Gallant in a call Austin said he has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to accelerate its transit to the Middle EastAustin has also ordered the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Central Command region Earlier: Oil traders – Israel placed on High

ING previewing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on Wednesday 14 August, this the bottom line: It is a very close call, and consensus is split between a 25bp cut and a hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on 14 August. However, we are inclined to think the RBNZ may still prefer

UBS Global Wealth Management mull the wild swings in markets last week, noting only a mild impact on EUR/USD. expect the rate to rise graduallysays US exceptionalism (the US economy outperforms the rest of the world) was key to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holding higher (than other global central banks) for longerexceptionalism will

The latest survey from the UK’s Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development shows that the country’s employers plan lowest pay rises in two years. Info comes via Reuters. UK employers are planning to raise wages by just 3% over the coming year the lowest planned increase in two yearsa significant drop from the 4% expected

Its an empty data calendar with regards to major FX. It’s a market holiday in Japan today. Apart from a speech from Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. at midday Sydney timewhich is 0200 GMTand 2200 US Eastern time (Sunday evening)at the Economic Society of Australia (QLD)I haven’t seen a topic

Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, August 12, 2024 local time, for observance of the Mountain Day holiday. The holiday will mean no physical trade of US Treasuries. it’ll also thin out liquidity across other markets, notably yen crosses. Mountain Day fell on the 11th but is being observed today. Mt. Fuji is the biggie

CIBC now expects both the Fed and Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25bps at each of their next three meetingsThis represents a 25bp lower endpoint for rates in 2024 and 2025 compared to previous forecastsDisinflation appears entrenched, allowing central banks to focus on downside economic risksHowever, CIBC doesn’t see an imminent recession despite

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: Australia Wage Price Index, UK Labour Market report, Eurozone ZEW, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US PPI.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, UK CPI, US CPI.Thursday: Japan Q2 GDP, Australia Labour Market report, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Q2 GDP, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production and Capacity

12th-16th August 2024 Mon: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report; Japanese Market Holiday (Mountain Day), German Retail Sales (May), Indian Trade Balance (Jul)Tue: IEA Oil Market Report, Australian Wage Price Index (Q2), UK Jobs (Jun/Jul), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US PPI (Jul)Wed: RBNZ Announcement and Quarterly MPS, Bank of Israel Announcement, UK Inflation (Jul), Swedish CPIF

“I am not confident that inflation will decline in the same way as in the second half of last year.”Inflation still “uncomfortably above” 2% targetLabor market showing signs of cooling, but uncertainties remainUpside risks to inflation persist, including housing and geopolitical factorsCalls for patience in monetary policy decisionsCritical of rapid regulatory changes in banking sectorAdvocates

With less than an hour left to go in trading, the broader stock indices are trying to fight its way to a positive close for the trading week. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are currently on pace for a negative close. If it remains that way, it would represent the fourth consecutive down week

Crude oil futures are settling the day and $76.84 that is up $0.65 or 0.85%. For the trading week, the prices closing up $3.32 or 4.51%. The gain this week comes after four straight weeks of declines. The low price it this week reached $71.67 which was the lowest level since February 5. The price

Broader US stock indices fight for a positive week with less than an hour to goCrude oil futures and settle at $76.84Key events and releases for next week’s tradingIn the future you will vote for who can keep the lights onBaker Hughes US oil rig count +3European equity close: The week finishes much better than

The US CPI and Retail sales will dominate the economic releases next week. The RBNZ will announce their interest rate decision on Wednesday in NZ. Tuesday August 13 9:30 PM ET: AUD Wage Price Index q/q (Estimate: 0.9%, Prior: 0.8%)2 AM ET: GBP Claimant Count Change (Estimate: 14.5K, Prior: 32.3K), GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y

Oil rigs at 485 vs 482 priorGas rigs 97 vs 98 prior There is a leveling-off of US drilling activity that partly reflects poor natural gas prices. Much of that market hinges on how could this winter is. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

IN the kickstart video for August 9, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective FOr the EURUSD it is trading up and down in trading today but did find resistance sellers against its 100 hour moving average at 1.09283. That remains to

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.1%Francis CAC +0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.2% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.3%Francis CAC +0.1%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain’s IBEX -0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.7% The STOXX 600 was down by as much as 3.6% early in the week but clawed it all back

These comments from Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt caught my attention: The next 20 years will be an unprecedented period for electricity build-out. The electrification of industrial capacity, automobiles, heating for houses, and other uses is driving unprecedented growth in the demand for electricity. On top of that, the world is adding data centers for Al

The major US stock indices are trading mixed in early action. The NASDAQ and the S&P are little changed. The Dow industrial average is lower. A snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open and showing: Dow industrial average -125.70 points or -0.32% at 39320.80.S&P index -2.89 points or -0.05% at 5316.41.NASDAQ and X

Fundamental Overview Gold erased most of the losses from the Monday’s global stock market rout as the ISM Services PMI and especially the US Jobless Claims yesterday improved the risk sentiment. This might be just a retracement of the liquidations experienced on Monday as it doesn’t look like there are strong reasons for a rally

What’s in a 19-pip move? That’s the total change in USD/JPY on the weekly chart. Of course it doesn’t tell the whole story, not even close. The pair cratered after hitting a 34-year high last month and had fallen more than 20 big figures by Monday. The drop came as the carry trade collapsed and

The USDCAD is little changed after the Canadian jobs report. Although the employment change was lower by -2.8K versus +22.5 estimate, the full-time jobs increased by 61.6K. The part-time jobs fell by -64.4K offsetting those gains. Stronger full-time is better than the declines in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate also remained steady at 6.4% versus

Prior +0.8%HICP +1.6% vs +1.7% y/y prelimPrior +0.9% Core annual inflation remained steady at 1.9%, so that’s at least a positive as price pressures in general hold just below the 2% mark in the Italian economy last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is under mild selling pressure across the board as the trading week winds down in London. The dollar benefited from the safe haven trade early in the week but markets have calmed and that’s led to the unwind of some safe haven flows. At the same time, the Treasury market has also

At one point on Monday this week, some market players were calling for emergency rate cuts by the Fed. To them, the US jobs report on Friday was enough to signal doom and gloom in the economy. But let’s be honest, it was more to do with them crying over carry trade losses and wanting

The AUD/USD is reaching new session highs, breaking above two of four key technical levels: the 50% retracement of the move down from July at 0.6473 and the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 0.6577. The current price is trading at 0.6586. The next targets are the 200-day moving average at 0.6592 and

JP Morgan Asset Management (info comes via a Bloomberg report, gated) says the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates again soon. JPAM say further tightening hinges on the US economy’s performance: BOJ may move again only if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and stabilizes the US economy.believes any further tightening by the

The Canada jobs data had something for everyone today. The unemployment rate was steady vs. last month at 6.4%, but lower than the estimate of 6.5%. The employment data showed a decline of -2.8K for the 2nd consecutive month decline, but there was 61K of full time jobs but -64K of part time jobs. So

The seeds of what would become a tumultuous Monday for Asian markets were sown during the previous Friday’s U.S. trading session. A seismic shift in investor sentiment was triggered by a far weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which painted a less rosy picture of the U.S. economy than anticipated. This unexpected economic data sent shockwaves

🚀 Today’s Stock Market Overview This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. Today at 8:30 AM ET, Canada will release its July jobs report. The expectation are for: Employment Change (Jul): Estimate 22.5k, Prior -1.4kUnemployment Rate (Jul): Estimate 6.5%, Prior 6.4%Full-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior -3.4kPart-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior 1.9kParticipation

The Nikkei is ending the day up by 0.56% and on the week itself, it is down 2.46%. The latter sounds bad but it really looked like it was going to be much worse after the Monday close: Japan’s Nikkei closes down by a whopping 12% to its lowest since November last year But a

The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since November 2023 on Monday as Japan stocks plummeted. However, after breaking below the low from 2024 at 0.63614, the price could only make it to 0.6348 before it snapped back to the upside and started to start the recovery. Although that recovery had its fits and starts

Gold has perked up in the past few minutes, rising a few dollars to $2430. That comes after a large gain yesterday and a series of higher lows over the past month. Those are reasons for optimism. However the main feature on the daily chart is a double top near $2475. So higher lows vs

Fed’s Barkin is scheduled to speak at 3 PM ET. ON Friday after the US jobs report he said: Not ready to embrace the 50 bp cut debateThat 114K jobs is reasonable.We’re going to get a lot of data between now and September. There will be two whole rounds of jobs reports two whole rounds

On Wednesday, the USDCHF moved back above its 100-hour moving average and although the price corrected lower into yesterday’s Asian and early European session, the downside momentum found willing buyers near that moving average level. The subsequent rise on the back of higher US stocks yesterday (and the unwinding of the flight to safety flows

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB flat S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are flat, so that’s not leaving all too much to work with. The market mood is steadier following the gains yesterday but that owed much to better US data. Today, traders will have to fend

The NZDUSD fell to a new low for the year on Monday on the back of the sharp fall in the Nikkei 225 (-12.4%). However, that new low only took out the April 2024 low by a few pips, and the price snapped higher. The momentum stalled near highs from last week nearly 0.5982 and

ANZ provides insights into the outlook for the USD and GBP in the upcoming week, focusing on the impact of recent macroeconomic data and positioning trends. Key Points: USD Outlook: Macroeconomic Stability: Despite market reactions suggesting otherwise, ANZ believes the US macroeconomic backdrop is not as dire. The labor market is easing but trending towards

The scare for lower growth and increasing unemployment was lessened today after initial jobless claims came in lower-than-expected 233K versus 250K last week. Maybe the employment picture is not so alarming after all. If bad data is bad for the market, good data has to be good for the market, and that is what we

Inflation, both CPI and PPI, data from China for July 2024 The m/m PPI is -0.2% This data comes in higher than expected for CPI, and also (not as negative as expected) for PPI. The pick up in consumer inflation moves the danger of deflation in China little further away. It also suggest some improvement

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of

Former ECB Vice President Vitor Constâncio on Thursday, tips a 25bp rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September but the same from the European Central Bank is a coin toss: — Note that final line from Constancio on ‘normative’ terms. He draws a clear distinction between what he thinks will happen

A note from LPL, the largest independent broker-dealer in the United States on using the stock market as a prediction tool for the US election. The S&P 500 index has historically been a strong predictor of U.S. presidential election outcomes, with an 83% accuracy rate since 1928. The indication comes from the stock market’s performance

BofA anticipates a partial reversal of June’s downside inflation surprise in the upcoming July CPI report, projecting modest increases in both headline and core CPI, which could influence the Fed’s decision-making for rate cuts in September. Key Points: Forecasted Headline CPI: Monthly Increase: BofA forecasts a 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) rise in headline CPI, with an

Wharton professor and frequent market commentator Jeremy Siegel caused a stir on Monday by calling for an emergency 75 basis point rate cut as markets melted down. He doubled down by calling for another 75 bps in September “at minimum.” Skip ahead a few days and he has had a change of heart. “I no

Prior month -1.4KEmployment change -2.8K vs +22.5K expectedUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected (up 0.9% y/y)Prior month employment rate 6.4%Full-time employment +62.0K vs -3.4K priorPart-time employment -64.4K vs +1.9K priorParticipation rate 65.0% vs 65.3% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 5.2% vs 5.4% last month These are back-to-back negative numbers, though they’re mitigated somewhat by the gain

Prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective.Will guide reasonable creditr growth.Will lower firms’ financing and household credit costs steadily.Will promote the steady decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing.Will maintain fundamental stability of Yuan exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.Will implement measures to prevent and resolve risks in key aread

Timing and pace of rate cuts will be based on the data The narrative surrounding Fedspeak at the moment is that they are gearing towards a September rate cut. All the kicking and screaming from earlier this Monday hasn’t changed that whatsoever. And if another bout of volatility hits markets, I would expect policymakers to

The good news on the hurricane front is that a formation that was tracking similarly to Beryl fizzled this week but the bad news is that it’s still early in hurricane season and another one has formed in the mid-Atlantic. The NHC says a tropical depression could form by early next week and the chance

China treasuries fall after state media says trading accounts must not be borrowedHow the S&P 500 predicts the winner of the US Presidential electionSociete Generale says its too early to call a US recessionICYMI – Ex-ECB Constancio says September rate cut only a 50-50 chance – inflation concern“No need for the Bank of Japan to

Signs mount that the Canadian consumer is slowing with jobs report due todayPBoC: Will guide reasonable credit growthFed’s Collins: It will be appropriate to ease soon if data aligns with expectationsWhat to watch out for on the economic calendar next week?US futures stick with the bounce from yesterday so far on the sessionWeekly update on

The highlight on the North American economic calendar today is the Canadian July employment report but it comes amidst sign that consumer spending is slowing down. RBC is out with its latest consumer spending tracker based on credit card data and Canada’s largest bank saw a 0.6% decline in July. “Canadian consumers are pulling back

Via Reuters, another move from Chinese authorities to fight the surge in bonds in the country: Chinese treasuries fell on Friday after state media said trading accounts must not be borrowed or transferred, following the launch of a probe by regulators into suspected misbehaviour in the country’s red-hot bond market. Borrowed or transferred interbank bond

Gold and the USD are often intertwined. Amid the recent drama surrounding the US Federal Reserve and its indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts, this topic is more poignant and relevant than ever. This saga provides the perfect segue to the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS), taking place in just a few weeks on August

The Mexico central bank lowered their benchmark interest rate to 10.75% from 11%. The expectations were split between unchanged and a 25 basis point cut. Banco de México’s Governing Board lowered the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75%, effective August 9, 2024.Economic activity remained heterogeneous across countries in

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid, speaking with the Kansas Bankers Association’s annual meeting in Colorado Springs, Colorado: If inflation continues to come in low, it will be appropriate to adjust policy. Current stance of Fed policy is ‘not that restrictive.’ Financial conditions can impact real economy, but Fed must remain focused on

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark. That should help to keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, with the pair itself settling just above the figure level following yesterday’s push and pull. Then,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG on the Bank of Japan outlook, a conditional view: “If financial markets stabilize and the pace of yen gains slows, then at least one more BOJ hike still appears likely in the current fiscal year.” MUFG cite the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (published yesterday): summary sent a clear signal for further interest-rate

There was a bit of a brief hiccup in the handover from Asia to Europe but the mood music is starting to feel better again now. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.7% so far on the session. And that is also keeping European indices in good spirits, with the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on August 14 is very much ‘live’. decision due at 2pm New Zealand time which is 0200 GMT which is 2200 US Eastern time on the 13th The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep its key cash rate at 5.50% at next Wednesday’s meeting.

What I am hearing from people on the ground is that in the labor market, people are cutting back on hiring, but not firing.Job growth has settled down, but still adding jobsTheis is a lot more labor supply than thought a year or two ago.The math of that suggests unemployment rate goes up. What would

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of a

The US Jobless Claims yesterday came out much better than expected. This is the most timely indicator we have on the labour market.The market reacted strongly, with the S&P 500 (chart below) rallying by 2.4% in a single day, which was the best one day gain since November 2022. WHY THE MARKET REACTED LIKE THAT?

The low around 15 minutes earlier saw the index down by around 0.9% as price volatility continues to stick around. The selling pressure coincides with the index failing to push up against the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the plunge since July. Besides that, the drop here matches up with a fall in US futures

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 102 bps (54% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 65 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 42 bps (67% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 73 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelimPrior +2.5% Core annual inflation remains at 2.9% so the ECB will definitely be hoping for more progress in the coming months to keep up with their rate cut cycle. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Via a note from Rabobank in London: AUD … wild ride in the past few weeksbetween mid-July and the start of this week, AUD/USD retraced all of the gains that it had made since late April, before showing signs of recoveryreasons for the swings are linked both to a change in expectations regarding RBA policy

The CPI from China for July is expected to tick a little higher m/m and jump y/y. At the wholesale price level the PPI is expected to remain in deflation. Not on the calendar screenshot but I expect Australian business confidence for July at 0130 GMT (9.30 pm US Eastern time). This the National Australia

Clearer lines are being drawn between the two major parties in the US presidential election. Republican nominee Trump spoke on CNBC: “I feel the president should have at least (a) say in there,” Trump said during a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. “Yeah, I feel that strongly. I think that in my

Earlier this week Westpac pushed back their RBA rate cut call to February 2025, from previously in November 2024 Expects a conservative pace of 25bp cuts per quarterNew terminal rate forecast of 3.35%, up from 3.10% previouslyRBA seen as more cautious, requiring stronger evidence before easingBank cites RBA’s new analytical tools and focus on full

The European session is once again empty as we will just get the final inflation readings for Germany and Italy. Moving on to the American session, we will get the Canadian jobs report which is the only notable event for today. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada July Labour Market report The Canadian Labour Market report

After the better showing in risk sentiment yesterday and the steadier tone earlier today, it looked like we were set for a calmer approach to European trading. That is until the last half hour or so, where US futures have turned lower and Japanese stocks also took a quick dip. It’s still early in the

Major currencies are seeing light changes for the most part, with even USD/JPY keeping under a 100 pips range for once in Asia this week. Overall, the dollar is marginally softer but the changes for the day are leaving a lot to be desired. Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs currently: The US weekly initial

Societe Generale says it too soon to call a US recession despite the concern in markets this week over a hard landing. “The largest moves of the last week happened in Japan and Technology, suggesting that Tech valuation and carry-trade reversals are a more convincing explanation for the volatility than the rising probability of a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee: The Fed watches the markets, but they don’t drive policy.The question is if the job market will hold, or keep worsening. We need to see more than payrolls and more than one month.We are getting back to more normal conditions in the US economyPolicy is tightWhatever the

Richmond Fed Pres Barkin:Hearing from people, that companies are not hiring but not firingS&P index has its best day since November 2022. Happy days are here again.Mexico cuts rates by 25 basis points vs expectations of a splitThe US Treasury auctions off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.314Bitcoin is

Julius Baer analyst on the BOJ, JPY and Japnese equities. no need for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates much more than it has doneonce markets settle 500-odd basis point interest rate differential between JPY and USD will once again be primarydo not see the yen appreciating from here The supports for Japan’s

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management (SuMi TRUST) on Japanese equities – looking for a bounce back after the sharp sell-off: Japanese equity market dropped sharply in early August on weak US data and yen strengthSuMi TRUST strategist Hiroyuki Ueno sees this as temporary correctionYen appreciation driven by diverging Fed/BOJ policy expectationsUeno: Market should return to

US CPI data is due on Wednesday August 14 at 0830 US Eastern time: Via Bank of America economists, they expect that U.S. inflation in July will show a slight uptick. Nevertheless, it’ll remain supportive of a potential Fed rate cut in September. BoA notes that June’s CPI figures came in lower than anticipatedexpects some

It will be good to HEAR what Dem nominee Harris will do in a debate situation, and also what policies she will pursue. The Dem convention is coming up and that should give her a boost (as a convention normally does). However, those are largely canned speeches (unless going off the screen). How well does

The US Treasury is set to auction $25 billion in 30-year bonds today, following yesterday’s 10-year auction that saw a substantial 3.0 bp tail. Analysts at BMO suggest caution as the last four instances of a 10-year auction tailing by at least two basis points were followed by tails in the subsequent 30-year auctions. Since

Last weekend earlier this week, bad news was bad news. Today there was good news in the form of initial jobless claims ticking back to 233K from 250K last week. The expectations was for 240K. That has helped to push stocks higher as good news is good news. A snapshot of the market is showing:

The weekly US initial jobless claims report is due out today and expected to decline to 240K from 249K. Last week, claims jumped to the highest in a year but there was a skew from Hurricane Beryl that may reverse this week. If so, it could signal ongoing strength in the economy. But if claims

Once again, the European session is going to be empty on the data front and the focus will be on the American session when we will get the latest US jobless claims figures. We will also hear from Fed’s Barkin late in the day and the market will likely be attentive to comments regarding the

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the six month averages of the major components. Those six month averages show Tail: -0.5 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.41XDealers: 15.2%Directs: 18.4%Indirects 66.4% The high yield last month came in

High yield 4.314%WI Level at the time of the auction 4.283%Tail 3.1 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.5 basis pointsBid to cover 2.31X vs 6 month average of: 2.41XDealers 19.18% vs 6 month average of 15.2%Directs 15.5% vs 6-month average of 18.4%Indirects 65.32% vs 6-month average of 66.4% AUCTION GRADE: F Sorry it

The bad 30 year bond auction did not deter the buyers in the stocks today. There is too much momentum today. The major indices are trading to new highs: Dow industrial average is currently up in 635 points or 1.64% at 39398.23. The high Price reached 39433.52.S&P index is up 117.5 points or 2.225% at

Its heading towards 8.30am in Tokyo and USD/JPY is already on the move. Its been as low as 146….. 146.23 (but I can’t keep up!) …. nope 146.21 …. Nope …. Well, you get the idea. Get ready for another wild session: Yen & Nikkei traders alert warning – more coming from the Bank of

Fundamental Overview The surprisingly weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Interestingly, while many major currencies weakened against the USD, the Euro strengthened a lot which reminded the famous words from former ECB’s President Draghi when he said “The Euro is like a Bumblebee. This is a mystery of nature because it shouldn’t

What a day Wednesday was in Japan: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ’s Uchida triggered a sharp yen declineThe Bank of Japan is in no mood to tangle with equity markets and it’s safe to re-enter the carry trade. We will be hearing more from the Bank of Japan today, with its ‘Summary of Opinions’

The USDCAD shifted its technical bias to the downside yesterday after re-entering the “red box” and breaking below a swing area near the top of this range (between 1.3784 and 1.3803). The “red box” largely defined the trading range from mid-April to mid-July, before the price broke higher, reaching the year’s high at 1.39458. Yesterday’s

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remained unchanged at 2.9%. It is still early in the quarter but grow remains solid: In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 8, unchanged from August 6

Bitcoin’s price surged over 8% today, marking its largest gain since March 2023. Currently trading at $59,819, up $4,666 for the day, the digital currency has experienced significant volatility over the past 10 trading days. It reached a high of $70,016 on July 29 and a low of $49,577 on Monday, a 29.19% decline over

Politico with the update: US officials say Iran may be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on IsraelWhile they do anticipate an Iranian response to the Haniyeh killing, think Tehran seems to have recalibratedUS does not expect an imminent attack “U.S. officials have sent messages to Tehran through various intermediaries that if the blast that killed

It is already August which means the final countdown to the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS) is now officially underway. The biggest event in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) is slated to be held in Sydney, Australia on August 27-29, drawing the industry’s elite, as well as thousands of attendees, traders, and more. Prospective attendees can expect

The risk mood continues to improve in US markets with the S&P 500 extending gains to 1.6%. In turn, that’s helped to boost AUD/USD to the best levels of the day. The pair is now up 55 pips and threatening the weekly high and the best levels since July 24. A break higher could catalyze

Asia-Pacific (APAC) is one of the world’s fastest growing online trading markets. As it continues to grow, Asia’s trading software market is expected to hit a staggering $19.68 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR 7.84% between 2024 – 2031. In this context, iFX EXPO Asia 2024 presents itself as a launching board for industry

Today, European stock markets showed mixed results today: German (DAX): Closed at 17,680.41, up by 65.25 points or +0.37%).France CAC: Ended at 7,247.46, down by 18.56 points or -0.26%).UK FTSE 100: Finished at 8,144.98, decreasing by 21.91 points or -0.27%).Spain’s Ibex: Ended at 10,557.99, down by 41.02 points or -0.39%).Italy’s FTSE MIB: Finished at 31,741.92,

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)Inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedPrior inventories +0.2% This is a lower tier indicator but it’s a poor number and could sap some USD strength in a market that is very sensitive to data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior week 249K (revised to 250K)initial jobless claims 233K versus 240K estimate. 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 240,750 vs 238,250 last weekContinuing claims 1.875M versus 1.870M expectedPrior week continuing jobless claims 1.877M (revised to 1.869m)4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.862M vs 1.855M last week There was a decrease of 17K from the

Speech by Michele Bullock, RBAGovernor: Economic Conditions in Post-Pandemic Australia with a Regional Lens Live link here On Tuesday we got the latest decision from the RBA (on hold) and a press conference from Bullock. She, and the Board, are perceived as hawkish. Its doubtful there will be another rate hike, but a cut appears

Today’s vibrant market landscape: An overview The stock market today tells a tale of contrasting sectors with standout performances particularly noted in the pharmaceutical industry. As observed from today’s stock heatmap, while some sectors witnessed modest gains, others struggled to keep pace. Notably, Lilly (LLY) rocketed up by 13.24%, shining brightly as today’s star performer.

Fundamental Overview The market is still licking its wounds as the price action remains tentative ahead of the US Jobless Claims today. The ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak US NFP report of last week are still fresh in everyone’s mind. At the moment the market is expecting the Fed to cut rates

The US dollar has extended further following the initial jobless claims report. The big winner is USD/JPY, which is now nearly 150 pips higher as yields rise. US 10-year yields are up 4 basis points and trading just above 4% after falling as low as 3.67% on Monday. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan retreated from

It is not a good close for the major indices today. The major indices are all closing near the lows for the day. A look at the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average fell -234.17 points or -0.60% at 38763.52S&P index fell minus 40.54 points or -0.77% at 5199.51NASDAQ index fell -171.05 points or -1.05%