US stock markets opened higher but have quickly been hit by heavy profit taking. The S&P 500 is now down 45 points, or 0.7%. The big drag is coming from Nvidia, which was trading higher by 3% in the pre-market and opened at a record high following a keynote speech from CEO Jensen Huang yesterday. […]

Prior month 7.744M revised to 7.839M JOLTs job openings for November 8.098M vs 7.770M estimate. Details Vacancy rate 4.8% versus 4.6% last month Quits rate 1.9% versus 1.8% last month. Hires 3.3% versus 3.3% last month Separations rate 3.2% versus 3.3% last month Looking at the trend from the chart above, the JOLTS were probably

The PBOC bought gold for the second consecutive month, data released earlier today showed. Reserves rose to 73.29 million fine troy ounces from 72.96 million fine troy ounces last month. The pace of buying roughly doubled as the increase of 0.33m oz compares to the rise of 0.16m oz in November. The value of Chinese

Prior was -0.92B (revised to -0.54B) Exports rise 2.2% to $66.1B vs $64.22B prior imports up 1.8% to $66.4B vs $65.14B prior Trade surplus with US C$8.2B vs C$6.2B prior as pharmaceutical exports to US jump 11.9% Gold exports hit record C$4.9B Consumer goods imports rise 3.8% Service exports dip 0.2% to C$18.2B This article

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +2.7% No changes to the core estimate as euro area inflation continues to hold stubborn in between 2% to 3% to end last year. Of note, services inflation remains an issue as it ticks a little higher to 4.0% on the month, up from 3.9%

S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% shortly before the open. The main driver of the gains is Nvidia, which is set to be the world’s largest company (once again) at the open. Shares are up 2.6% in the pre-market after unveiling a series of products late yesterday. One drag is Tesla, with shares down 1.6%

German DAX futures -0.5% UK FTSE futures -0.6% The late selling in Wall Street overnight is to blame, with only tech shares left to keep things afloat by the end of yesterday. US futures are also keeping more tentative, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% currently. So, that is keeping the overall mood in a

The USD/CAD has declined in today’s trading, breaking below the lower boundary of the swing area between 1.4334 and 1.4348. For a bullish bias to emerge, the pair would need to climb back above this zone, signaling a potential failure of the break outside the “Red Box” that has defined recent trading ranges over the

The US dollar rose across the board after a pair of upbeat economic data releases. The main driver was JOLTS, with job openings climbing to 8.098 million from 7.700 million in what could be the start of a pickup in jobs. Secondarily, the ISM services report rose to 54.1 from 53.3 with an uncomfortable rise

Prior 1.3% HICP 1.4% vs 1.6% y/y expected Prior 1.5% Core CPI Y/Y 1.8% vs. 1.9% prior Core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) was +1.8% (from +1.9% in the previous month) and inflation excluding energy was +1.7% (from +2.0% in November). In 2024, the average annual rate of change of consumer prices, measured by

That compares with their November holdings of 72.96 million fine troy ounces. In terms of reserves value though, that has fallen from $193.43 billion in November to $191.34 billion as of December. As a side note, do be mindful that these are the numbers that China wants you to see. There was a period last

📈 Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a vibrant picture of mixed fortunes across sectors, with semiconductors driving significant gains thanks to standout performances from Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU). Meanwhile, the consumer electronic sector sees a dip with Apple (AAPL) struggling, highlighting sector-specific challenges. 🔋 Semiconductors: Nvidia leads the charge with

Trudeau gone, Carney says he thinking about stepping up to be PM: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.7% Core CPI +0.7% y/y Prior +0.9% Swiss inflation continues to stay at manageable levels but at some point, the worry might be that price pressures could become too depressed. The SNB has to remain steadfast in managing the franc in that respect as such. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ remarks on the result: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 3.6pts in the first week of 2025, reaching a top-three result since the start of 2023. We expect more upward momentum this year as tax cuts, rising real wages and rate cuts support households. 87.5 is still very pessimistic (100 is the neutral level). This

Goldman Sachs headline is here from Monday: Goldman Sachs trim its gold forecasts, gold not to reach US$3000 in 2025 Adding in a little more now: GS cite a slower expected pace of central bank monetary easing policy in 2025 This will trim back demand for gold a little, GS noting the impact will hit

The USD is mixed today with the greenback lower vs the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD and higher vs the JPY and CHF. The biggest movers are the AUD (USD -0.53%) and the NZD (USD -0.57%). Yesterday, the USD was mostly lower after the market reacted to a report that Trump tariffs would be

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 55.2 UK construction activity slows to six-month low as house building keeps a drag on the overall sector. Total new work was seen rising at its slowest pace since June but at least business optimism picked up after hitting a 13-month low in November. S&P Global notes that: “December data highlighted a loss of

Tesla Stock Pre-Market Analysis Price at the Time of Analysis: $402.77 Key Levels to Watch for Tesla Bullish Above $416.50 Why Bullish Above?A move above $416.50 puts the price above the Value Area Highs of today (so far), yesterday, and two days ago. This clearly marks the top of the range, and a breakout above

Inflation expectations for the year ahead rose from 2.5% in October to 2.6% in November, with inflation expectations for 3 years ahead also rising to 2.4% – up from 2.1% in the month before. Meanwhile, growth expectations have turned more negative with the year ahead seen at -1.3% as opposed to -1.1% in October. It’s

Russian data shows it cut December oil output below OPEC+ target. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain supported since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. After the rally during the low volume Christmas holidays, we are now seeing a pullback pretty much across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much with roughly two rate cuts priced

FULL REPORT Prior month $-73.8 billion international trade balance for November $-78.2 billion versus $-73.8 billion last month. Vegas since September Goods trade balance for November $-103.5B versus preliminary $-102.8 billion. Prior month $-98.26 billion. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than

The dollar is keeping steadier in trading today after a mixed showing yesterday. Trump denied softening his stance on tariffs but while yields rebounded, the dollar was still left to lick its wounds from earlier. USD/JPY though is a standout as it snapped back hard, now rising above 158.00 before a couple of verbal interventions

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Analysis and Key Levels Financial Instrument: S&P 500 E-mini FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 6014 The S&P 500 E-mini Futures are currently trading near 6014, reflecting a pivotal moment in the market as price hovers between critical levels. This analysis highlights key bullish and bearish zones, along with profit-taking strategies

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain supported since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. After the rally during the low volume Christmas holidays, we are seeing a pullback pretty much across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much with roughly two rate cuts priced in

Crude oil futures are settling at $73.56 which is down -$0.40 or -0.54%. The high price today reached $74.96. That high was within shouting distance of the falling 200-day moving average is $75.34 ($0.38). The price has not traded above the 200-day average since October 8 (the break above that MA failed on that day).

It’s a mixed start to the new year for gold but yesterday’s drop was not too bad overall. The precious metal fell as the dollar recovered back some ground alongside bond yields, as Trump denied going soft on tariffs. The good news for gold buyers is that from a technical standpoint, the drop did not

Russian data shows it cut December oil output below OPEC+ target Italy December preliminary CPI 1.3% vs 1.5% y/y expected Eurozone November unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Eurozone December preliminary CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected UK December construction PMI 53.3 vs 54.4 expected Inflation expectations over the next year rose in November –

FX option expiries for 7 January 10am New York cut Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a new series of gaming chips The PBoC is steadfast in not allowing further yuan weakness – here’s why Recap – Japan’s Finance Minister warns against speculative yen selling Fed’s Barkin speaking on Economic Forecast on Tuesday Japan verbal intervention

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain supported since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. After the rally during the low volume Christmas holidays, we are now seeing a pullback pretty much across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much with roughly two rate cuts priced

NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Nasdaq 100 E-mini FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 21,725 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 21,760 Why Bullish Above?A move above 21,760 indicates price is surpassing yesterday’s VWAP and today’s developing Value Area High (VAH). This suggests buyers are gaining control, as price trades above

Prior 6.3% The jobless rate in the euro area holds steady but this will be one spot to watch in the months ahead in case labour market conditions in Germany and France start to weigh more heavily amid their stuttering economies. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia’s Digits: A game-changer for AI accessibility and stock investors Nvidia’s unveiling of the Digits personal AI supercomputer at CES 2025 marks a transformative moment in the democratization of artificial intelligence. Priced at $3,000 and slated for release in May 2025, Digits offers unparalleled AI capabilities in a compact, desktop-sized device. For Nvidia stock investors,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Ethereum Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Ethereum FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 3,690 Key Levels to Watch in ETH Futures Bullish Above 3,733 Why Bullish Above?A move above 3,733 signals that the price has surpassed yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH), a critical resistance level. This breakout could indicate buyer strength and open the

Australian November 2024 Building Permits -3.6% m/m expected -1.0%, prior +4.2% +3.2% y/y prior +6.1% Private sector houses fell 1.7% (prior -5.2%), to 9,028, while private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 10.8%, to 5,285. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI – reports Monday US time on OPEC oil supply dipping a touch in December. Info via Bloomberg (gated). OPEC’s crude oil production declined in December, driven primarily by the UAE’s efforts to implement supply cuts aimed at stabilizing global oil markets. Output fell by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.05 million bpd, with

Bank of America writes about its China outlook for the year ahead and says: “We advise investors to stay vigilant, start defensive (high yield value) in early 2025, and add quality beta on major corrections and/or strong stimulus. If credit growth accelerates notably in 1Q25, China market could potentially see a more sustained rally in

US stocks close mixed. Dow down modestly. Nasdaq leads. Crude oil settles at $73.56 How Bank of America sees the China trade unfolding in 2025 Bitcoin back above $100,000. What next technically speaking? The gloomy start to the year for China continues with today’s reversal US sells 3-year notes at 4.332% vs 4.320% WI Deutsche

Dow Jones Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Dow Jones Futures / E-mini Dow JonesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 42,960 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 43,040 Why Bullish Above?A move above 43,040 indicates price is surpassing the Value Area High (VAH) from two days ago, signaling buyer strength. This level represents a critical

Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Bitcoin FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 102,690 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 103,600 Why Bullish Above?A move above 103,600 signals that the price has surpassed the Value Area High (VAH) of yesterday. This level acts as a key resistance zone; breaking above it suggests buyers are

The Treasury department is out with a statement saying that Yellen raised the matter of “malicious” cyber activity carried out by Chinese state-sponsored actors in said meeting. Adding that there was an unspecified amount of computers at the Treasury that had been compromised by Chinese hackers last month. That occurred after a breach of its

Russell 2000 Index Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Russell 2000 Index FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 2,280 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 2,290 Why Bullish Above?A move above 2,290 indicates price has surpassed the Value Area High (VAH) of the last two days. This signals a potential shift in market sentiment, with

In the European session, the focus will be on the Swiss CPI and especially on the Eurozone CPI as the market’s pricing for the ECB remains very dovish. In the American session, the attention will switch to the ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings. 07:30 GMT – Switzerland December CPI The Swiss CPI

The price of Bitcoin fell below a swing area and 38.2% retracement between $92,092 and $92,442 and did the same thing on December 31. Both breaks failed. The inability to extend and stay below that level gave buyers a reason to buy technically. The price started to extend higher. That move saw the price move

Takeshi Niinami is the CEO of Suntory but he also serves as the head of the Keizai Doyukai business lobby – one for leading executives – and also the head for Japan’s chamber of commerce and industry. He is out saying that wage growth this year at big firms will likely match levels similar to

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for December 2024: Total sales +3.2% y/y, biggest jump since March 2024 November was -3.3% Note, Black Friday fell in the BRC’s December period in 2024 and in November in 2023, distorting year-on-year comparisons Like-for-like sales +3.1% y/y November -3.4% Summary: Black Friday boosted retail sales in late 2024, with

Not seeing much news on the yen at all, apart from what has already been posted. There is some news about on Nippon Steel: The firm’s CEO says we believe a fresh review by new CFIUS members under the incoming US administration could lead to a better understanding Background to this is US President Biden

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan finance minister Kato: Won’t comment on forex levels. Recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves. Important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Alarmed over FX moves, including those driven by speculators. Will take appropriate action against excessive moves. I bolded some of those words, these are the signals used to convey concern

FX analysts at Deutsche Bank today highlight three political developments: The WaPo article highlighting a narrowing of tariffs (and Trump’s denial) Trump’s preference for “one big beautiful bill” Trump’s plan to finance tax cuts with tariffs This year will defined in large part by the policy mix that is delivered by President-elect Trump, DB writes

1300 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025 Barkin spoke on Friday: Inflation still not back to target, more work to do US debt is large and growing and puts pressure on long rates Says he is in

There isn’t much on the option expiries board for today. As such, trading sentiment will continue to focus on the early positioning plays to start the week. The dollar was a little weaker on tariff hopes but then Trump came out to deny that here. The bond market continues to stutter though, with yields moving

USD/JPY has dribbled off its session high after verbal intervention remarks. Japan verbal intervention to support the yen – Fin Min Kato will take action Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated concerns about speculative yen selling as the currency hit 158.40 per dollar. This is not far from 160, a level that triggered intervention six

USD/JPY has hit highs above 158.40. I don’t know how effective verbal intervention will be, but Japanese authorities will give it a shot regardless. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At CES 2025, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a new series of gaming chips, the RTX 50 series, based on the company’s advanced ‘Blackwell’ AI technology. Designed to enhance graphics realism, the chips improve visual details such as shaders, adding lifelike imperfections to objects, and generate more realistic human faces in games. The chips range

The major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average down marginally while the NASDAQ index leads the advances. A look at the numbers shows: Dow industrial average -25.57 points or -0.06% at 42706.56. S&P index +32.91 points or 0.55% at 5975.38. NASDAQ index +243.30 points or 1.24% at 19864.98 Russell 2000-1.82

China is resisting market pressures to allow the yuan to weaken, viewing the potential downsides as outweighing the benefits. While the yuan depreciated 2.8% against the dollar in 2024, its trade-weighted renminbi index rose 4.2%, suggesting it remains relatively strong compared to other currencies that have fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar. The People’s Bank

TD Securities with a controversial view: “We don’t think that local politics are driving CAD all too much.” Sheesh … the jump for CAD was pretty clearly related to the news of Trudeau to resign. Anyway. More. TD says it remains bearish on CAD, despite Trudeau leaving office: “For CAD to benefit from any change

Justin had the bombshell German CPI data on Monday: Germany December preliminary CPI +2.6% vs +2.4% y/y expected For some context, it was at 2.7% back in September. Stagflation much? Ugh. To emphasize the jump in inflation, Spain’s December CPI also came in faster-than-expected price at 2.8% (2.6% expected) This is going to cast doubt

Snippet of info from Goldman Sachs. Their projection for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts this year: now expect 75 basis points of cuts in 2025 down from projecting 100 GS say they see underlying inflation trending lower GS add that they are skeptical that Trump’s likely policy change will lead to higher interest

The week started strong for the oil market on global growth hopes after the WaPo report downplayed Trump’s tariff ambitions. But crude ran into sellers right at the $75.00 level and then Trump denied the report. That meant that $74.99 marked the high for the day for oil and it’s reversed lower to $73.25. At

This auction was moved up by a day because of Jimmy Carter’s funeral. Prior was 4.117% Bid to cover vs 2.58 prior All three auctions of threes tailed in Q4 and we start off Q1 with another one. The market might forgive this one given the scheduling but that raises the stakes for sales later

Officials from: the People’s Bank of China the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) China’s Ministry of Finance Will hold a briefing at 10 am Beijing time on Wednesday, January 8, 2025 0200 GMT 2100 US Eastern time Topics will include: expansion of consumer goods trade-in program This article

North Korea launched a missile yesterday: North Korea has fired another ballistic missile South Korea media reporting today that another is planned ahead of January 20. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD moved sharply higher earlier today helped by the Washington Post article on the Trump tariffs. The news was more dovish and less inflationary and the USD and yields moved lower. For the EURUSD the pair extended above the 100 hour MA (at 1.03403), 200 hour MA at 1.0374, 38.2% at 1.03783 50% of

Its going to be a light data agenda during the Asian session for today. I’ve stuck a box around one thing that’ll come later from China. Justin will pick it up. FX reserves data include data on gold purchases, which is much awaited. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) typically publishes updates on its gold

There has been a round trip in a number of risk assets on the Trump tariff story and the subsequent denial. Stock markets have largely held up but that could be changing as we enter the latter parts of the day. The S&P 500 is up 33 points to 5975 after rising as high as

US-listed China ETFs are struggling today, erasing earlier gains. There was some optimism on the report about Trump softening tariffs but the President-elect later denied that report and China is back in the doldrums. The MCHI ETF is now 2% lower and at the worst levels since late September. There are some FX impacts in

Is Crude Oil Futures a Buy or Sell today (06 Jan, 2025)? Is Gold Futures a Buy or Sell Today (06 Jan, 2025)? Bank of America see potential for a strong China equity rally in H2 2025 PBOC is set to issue a record volume of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month Goldman

Prior was +0.2% Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.2% vs +0.2% prior Durable goods orders -1.2% vs -1.1% preliminary. Last month was +0.8% Durable goods ex transportation -0.2% vs -0.1% preliminary. Last month +0.2% Durable goods ex defense -0.4% versus -0.3% prior Durable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.4% versus +0.7% preliminary. Last month

German DAX futures +0.2% French CAC 40 futures +0.3% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This comes with US futures also seen marginally higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%. This of course follows from the stronger gains in Wall Street at the end of last week, largely led by tech shares though. This article was written

The USDCAD has had a volatile trading today as tariff news from Pres.-elect Trump sent the dollar lower and then higher, and word of the resignation of Canada PM Trudeau also contributed. Technically, the price moved lower on the tariff news taking the pair below a “Red Box” (see chart below) that has defined the

Canada’s Prime Minister announced that he intends to step down, as previously reported. Highlights: Says Governor General agreed House of Parliament will be prorogued until March 24 Process will begin to select a new Liberal leader Removing me should decrease the level of polarization and allow people in the House to focus on serving Canadians

The USD/CHF pair experienced a sharp drop following a Washington Post article reporting that Trump is considering global tariffs targeting only “critical materials.” This news pushed the pair below its 100-hour moving average at 0.9072 and its 200-hour moving average at 0.90354, reaching a low of 0.90077, within a swing zone between 0.8997 and 0.9011.

I wrote about the Trump tariffs report earlier and it’s been weighing on the US dollar. That’s reversed now as Trump writes: The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it’s wrong. It’s

Trump denied the Washington Post report on tariffs but the market believes the reporting, not the President-election. European stocks posted a strong day: Stoxx 600 +0.9% German DAX +1.5% France CAC +2.3% UK FTSE 100 +0.2% Spain IBEX +1.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.9% The STOXX 600 is at the best levels since Dec 18. This

The US dollar is softening today in part due to a Washington Post report that says Trump is considering putting on global tariffs but only on ‘critical materials’. The report includes a relatively short list that highlights three areas and 11 specific things: Defense industrial supply chain: Steel Iron Aluminum Copper Critical medical supplies: Syringes

In the video above, I take a look at both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Both pairs moved lower into the yearend reaching new lows for the year on the very last day of the calendar year. In the first few days of 2025, the price has moved higher with strong gains earlier today coming with

US 10-year yields are up 3.5 bps to 4.63% and verging on the highest levels since April. I’m watching the signals coming out of Congress very closely and gauging the market’s reaction. As I’ve long written, the three economic priorities of Trump have been: Stock market gains/GDP growth Bringing down the trade deficit Bringing down

Bernanke said that the policies set out by Trump may not necessarily cause a major shift in inflation dynamics. He argued that: “I agree Trump policies, whatever their merits on public-finance grounds, probably will be modest in terms of their effect on the inflation rate. Barring some very unusual situation, including geopolitical risks, it doesn’t

Activity in China’s services sector expanded at a faster pace in December, buoyed by accelerated growth in demand, Services PMI 52.2 in December 2024 expected 51.7 prior 51.5 Activity Growth: Driven by stronger domestic demand and promotional efforts, new business inflows grew at the quickest pace in five months. Challenges: Export business declined for the

CTV News reports that Trudeau will seek to prorogue parliament until March 24 as he tries to avoid a general election while Liberals select a new leader. That’s not much time to run a leadership campaign. It’s also not clear if the Governor General will allow him to prorogue at all. This article was written

On the weekend, the rumours continued that Trudeau was on the way out. Now it’s virtually confirmed as the CBC reports that Trudeau will hold a press conference at 5:45 pm ET (2245 GMT) (Update: They now say it will be at 10:45 am ET) and announce he intends to step down as party leader,

The first lawsuit will be to challenge unlawful political influence, asking the courts to set aside the CFIUS review process and US president Biden’s blocking order. Nippon Steel claims that its legal actions are necessary and they are confident that they have a strong case to rightfully close out the proposed transaction to acquire US

Australia Judo Bank / S&P Global data for December 2024. Services PMI comes in at 50.8, 11th consecutive month of growth November was 50.5 flash was 50.4 (more on the preliminary reading is here) From the report, in summary: Services activity growth aligned with stronger new business, supported by rising market demand. Export orders increased

NASDAQ Price Prediction and Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Today. Do not short yet… The NASDAQ 100 E-mini futures were up already by over 1.5% today, its high so far near 21,850 at the time of this analysis. This strong performance reflects growing optimism in the broader market and positions the NASDAQ as a critical

Fundamental Overview Despite the spike lower triggered by the last FOMC decision, gold didn’t extend the fall and remained confined in the range between the 2600 support and the 2721 resistance. The FOMC decision was perceived as more hawkish than expected but apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed just met the market’s pricing. The

A new week begins with the US and Canadian jobs report the highlight.For today, stocks are higher, US yields are lower and the USD is falling vs all the major currencies with the greenback moving the most vs the AUD (down -1.11%) and the NZD (-1.09%). It is also lower by about -0.85% vs the

Background expectations to this today: All eyes on the PBoC yuan reference rate today – will it be above 7.20? The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that

Jibun Bank / S&P Global PMIs from Japan for December 2024 Services: 50.9, strongest new business inflows in four months Flash reading was 51.4 (more on this preliminary reading is here) November was 50.5 More: Activity Growth: Modest expansion, supported by domestic demand, though export sales continued to decline. Employment: Payroll numbers increased for the

Prior -17.5 Despite being a little better than estimated, the reading is the lowest since November 2023. Euro area investor morale continues to stay more subdued upon the turn of the year with Germany being the biggest cause of concern. Sentix notes that “the economic engine is threatening to freeze up for the long-term” as

The Fed’s top bank regulator will leave his post on Feb 28, rather than fighting to keep his position, as he previously indicated. In a statement, he said that a ‘dispute’ over his position could be a distraction. However Barr says that he will remain as a Fed Governor through his full term. This article

Technology and Semiconductor Stocks Soar, Telecom Faces Pressure The U.S. stock market today highlighted a robust performance in technology and semiconductor sectors, while telecom stocks faced notable declines. Investors are navigating this mixed landscape, adjusting their strategies to capitalize on emerging trends and safeguard against potential downswings. 📈 Sector Overview: Winners and Losers Technology: A

Prelim was 58.5 Prior was 56.1 Composite 55.4 vs 56.6 prelim Prior composite was 54.9 Details: Employment increases for first time in 5 months Business confidence at 18-month high Cost inflation eases to 11-month low This is still the best reading since March 2022, though not as good as it initially looked. Chris Williamson, Chief

Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) Analysis: Key Levels and Market Dynamics Current Price: $99,665 (+0.44%) Resistance and Liquidity Area: $102,000 to $102,500 Price Magnet: This area acts as a magnet due to its high liquidity. Many participants and algorithmic strategies are expecting the price to reach this level. Market makers are incentivized to move the price toward

The labor market has cooled in the past year but remains solid Risks to inflation and employment are roughly on balance Labor market is not a source of inflation I see private credit and AI among financial stability risks The Fed can proceed more cautiously in cutting rates These comments were released slightly early. This

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 40 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 97 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 55 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 65 bps (68% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 72 bps

President elect Trump is saying that the Washington Post article on tariffs is wrong and that has led to a quick move to the upside in the USD, a quick move higher in yields (2 YEAR back to unchanged/10 year up 2.5 bps to 4.62%) and a rotation lower in stocks. The major indices are

Headlines: Trump aides reportedly exploring tariff plans to only cover critical imports The loonie is in focus on potential Trudeau resignation Weekly update on interest rate expectations Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence -17.7 vs -18.0 expected Eurozone December final services PMI 51.6 vs 51.4 prelim UK December final services PMI 51.1 vs 51.4 prelim SNB

Bitcoin last week held the critical support zone at $92,000 and now it’s retaken $100,000. It’s an impressive start to the year for bitcoin and is coming with broadly-positive risk appetite. It’s a good sign for stocks and the Nasdaq and will be even better if it can hold above the big figure and eventually

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.9% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +2.4% That’s a much higher reading than estimated as German monthly inflation climbs by 0.4%, compared to 0.3% expected in December. The more pressing concern is that core annual inflation is seen moving up for yet another month, now up to 3.1%. For some context, it

Is AMD Stock a Buy? A Strategic Buy-the-Dip Plan for Swing Traders If you’re asking, “Is AMD stock a buy?”, the answer depends on your strategy and market outlook. With AMD’s stock price currently sitting at $129.01, it recently dipped to $115.91 during premarket trading on December 24th, showcasing the importance of setting buy orders

Well, that perhaps explains the marginal decline today as opposed to the ugly start to the new year from last week. It is being reported that at least four large mutual funds have received calls from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges since Thursday and Friday last week, asking them to buy more stocks than

This feels more like the actual start to the new year, so welcome back one and all. The dollar continues to sit in a good spot, largely holding gains from the turn of the year. EUR/USD is hovering near 1.0300 while USD/JPY is racing up and taking aim at 158.00 today. Elsewhere, USD/CNY is also

British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey of more than 4,800 firms in the UK. Not pleasant reading. In brief: UK business confidence has plummeted to its lowest level in two years due to rising costs and taxes 63% of firms are worried about taxes, the highest since 2017, driven by national insurance hikes and a

Monday is expected to be a relatively quiet day for the FX market, with few economic events scheduled. On Tuesday, attention will shift to Switzerland’s CPI data and the eurozone flash CPI. In the U.S., the focus will be on the ISM services PMI and the JOLTS job openings. Wednesday will bring Australia’s inflation data,

The Biden administration plans to impose new sanctions targeting tankers carrying Russian oil sold above the $60 per barrel price cap, aiming to curtail Russia’s oil revenue used to fund its war in Ukraine. These measures will focus on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of aging vessels, which are often unsafe and prone to oil spills. Since

The news out of Canada is what appears to be the looming resignation of Prime minister Trudeau. Adam had the breaking over the weekend: Trudeau expected to resign ‘by Monday’ – report I caught a little more earlier here: CAD PM Trudeau expected to announce resignation before national caucus meeting Wednesday Apparently writer Mark Twain

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) are bearish on GBP, citing Bank of England interest rate cuts to come: We see the pricing for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts this year as too cautious and expect the BoE to cut by more which will likely see the pound underperform non-dollar currencies later in the year

We are now officially back to business in the markets. We have lots of key economic data this week that will culminate with the US NFP report on Friday. Today, the only highlight will be the German inflation data ahead of the Eurozone Flash CPI tomorrow. We will also get the final PMI readings for

It is being reported that the current discussions are for tariffs to be applied to all countries but to only cover critical imports. The tariffs will only be on certain sectors deemed critical to national or economic security, according to the report. The dollar has fallen on the headlines here with USD/JPY stumbling from 157.80

Of the 72 economists in the Eurozone surveyed, roughly 46% are of the opinion that the ECB is “behind the curve” when it comes to cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, around 43% of economists are of the opinion that the ECB is on the right path. The remaining 11% are undecided. Here is the full poll

Prior 49.5 Composite PMI 49.6 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 48.3 The readings are a marginal improvement to the initial estimates but overall, it still marks a slight contraction in euro area business activity in December. A worrying point is that price pressures in the services sector is seen rising at the balance, and that threatens

The latest political developments are certainly adding a lot of intrigue to the USD/CAD chart to start the new year. The pair came close to cracking 1.4500 but is ultimately pulling back now. Does that line up with the potential for a technical pullback as we have seen back in 2016 and 2020 before? The

Key messages from Octa for 2025: ● In 2025, the implications of the U.S. presidential election will play out in full force. ● A full-scale tariff war between the U.S. and the rest of the world is a major global risk. ● An additional headwind is growing fiscal deficits in the U.S. and Europe. ●

Trump on Twitter. Shouting out his tariff and tax cut policies. There are plenty of folks about the place discounting what Trump will do, saying its all for show, all for negotiation purposes. I think that’s an incorrect take. I think Trump is going to do everything he can to implement exactly what he says

A bit more on that earlier report from Financial News in China: China financial media says PBoC statement sends stronger signal on stable yuan FX rate The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is set to issue a record volume of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month, aiming to stabilize the yuan’s exchange rate

Financial News is a People’s Bank of China-backed media outlet in China. reporting on PBoC Q4 meeting statement, saying it sends a strong signal on stabilising the exchange rate: PBoC has ample tools and experience to react to yuan fall has ability to hold yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced level Despite some expectations

This from the Australian public media, ABC, over the weekend: Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There’s a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens Its ungated if you want to read the whole thing, but the piece that’s catching notice is where the writer makes the case that the Reserve Bank of

Australian Dollar Futures (6A), March 2025 Contract: Key Levels, Analysis, and Price Prediction for the Australian Dollar Futures Market Current Price: 0.6245 Market Overview and Key Dynamics in Australian Dollar Futures The Australian dollar futures market, particularly the AUDUSD pair, is showing signs of a continued upward reversal. This Aussie dollar strength is driven by

EUR/USD is trading back up to 1.0365, up 0.5% on the day, and starting to nudge back above its 100-hour moving average of 1.0349. The pair is looking for a second straight day of gains, catching a bounce after a plunge last week to a low of 1.0222. Similarly, GBP/USD is also up 0.5% to

Prior 53.1 Composite PMI 56.8 Prior 53.2 This just reaffirms that the Spanish economy remains one of the few bright lights in the euro area, once again shining brightly. Business activity picked up in December, underpinned by a sharp rise in new business. HCOB notes that: “These are impressive figures for the end of the

Final Services PMI 51.1 vs 51.4 expected and 50.8 prior. Final Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.5 expected and 50.5 prior. Key Findings: Employment declines for the third month in a row. Marginal increase in business activity. Input cost inflation accelerates to an eight-month high. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

Bloomberg (gated) ask the question: The yuan weakening past a level that China had been defending throughout December has returned the spotlight to its daily reference rate for the managed currency to gauge Beijing’s appetite to support it. Currency traders are waiting to see if the People’s Bank of China will set the so-called fixing

Stay Vigilant Amid Macro Uncertainties China’s equity markets rebounded in 2024, driven by domestic policy shifts, but uncertainties in global trade, supply chains, and geopolitical dynamics may affect confidence in 2025. BoA add that the strength and scope of the policies announced are yet to seen , and that impact will lag for quarters. H-shares

Reuters cite “source familiar with Trudeau’s thinking’: T is increasingly likely to announce he intends stepping down T has not made a final decision USD/CAD update, its dropped under 1.4400: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Final Services PMI 51.2 vs. 51.0 expected and 49.3 prior. Final Composite PMI 48.0 vs. 47.8 expected and 47.2 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.2 (Nov: 49.3). 2-month high. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 48.0 (Nov: 47.2). 2-month high. Rates of input cost and output price inflation

Domestic sight deposits CHF 426.6 bn vs CHF 436.4 bn prior This marks another break from the recent norm with total sight deposits falling further to its lowest since 2015. For some backdrop, you can refer to my post last week here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +0.6% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% The gains are also fueled by late gains in Wall Street at the end of last week, which saw the S&P 500 end higher by 1.3%, Nasdaq up by 1.8%, and Dow up by 0.8%. For

In a statement on Saturday China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), announced plans to enhance financial support for technology innovation and consumption stimulation to boost economic growth. The bank also hinted at using new tools to provide liquidity to the stock market and reaffirmed its commitment to lower interest rates and the

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 level. The expiries there might help to keep a bit of a floor on price action in the session ahead, as market players look to get settled into the actual start of the

Prior 46.9 Composite PMI 47.5 vs 46.7 prelim Prior 45.9 The revision marks a slight improvement to November but the French economy is still seen contracting for a fourth month running. Weak demand conditions remain the number one culprit, weighing on both output and new orders. HCOB notes that: “Although the service sector in France

Services PMI 50.7 vs. 50.3 expected and 49.2 prior. Composite PMI 49.7 vs. 47.7 prior. Key findings: Renewed, albeit only marginal rise in services activity. Softer decline in new business signalled. Cost and charge inflation pick up. Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg TV carried an interview with head of China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. Nothing really too new in this, the risks have been well canvassed: consumption remains weak upcoming US tariffs will impact Other points made by UBS in recent reports: China has shown willingness to provide more fiscal stimulus to offset the

North Korea has fired another ballistic missile: launched a ballistic missile towards the East Sea, says South Korea military This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude Oil Futures Trading Map: Key Levels for January 2025 Contract Current Price Analysis: Today’s Crude Oil Futures (CL January 2025) are trading near critical levels, with a clear divide between bearish and bullish scenarios based on key technical zones. Bearish Scenario: Crude Oil Futures Under Today’s Point of Control Key Level for Bears: $74.13:

A stronger fix today here isn’t really too encouraging, with USD/CNY continuing to push higher on the day. The pair is now trading just under 7.33 as it continues to contest a potential breakout to start the year. The story for the yuan currency hasn’t changed too much since the latter stages of last year.

Shanghai Stock Exchange vows to deepen capital markets opening in a meeting with foreign institutions China’s economy has solid fundamentals and shows resilience in complex international environment Headlines via Reuters. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs: no longer see US$3K by 2025 see $3K by mid-2026 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Trading Map: Key Levels for February 2025 Contract Current Price: $2653.3 (at the time of analysis) Today’s analysis for Gold futures (GC February 2025) highlights critical price levels and potential trading scenarios for both bullish and bearish cases. Whether you’re trading Gold futures (GC) or analyzing the precious metal market, these insights can

If you were awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly, nope. No comments on the economy nor policy. Daly spoke earlier alongside Kugler, with some remarks of interest ICYMI: Fed’s Kugler: Job not done on inflation I’m sure she, and other Fed talking heads, will more than make up for

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda comments: virtuous cycle strengthened gradually last year plans to increase interest rates with continued economic improvements timing on adjustment is dependent on economy and inflation momentum for wage increases is key must be vigilant to various risks in deciding timing for adjusting degree of monetary support hopes that wage, prices

Japanese Yen Futures AI Price Prediction: Key Levels, Analysis, and Forecast AI Analysis and Forecast for Japanese Yen Futures The Japanese Yen futures market is displaying mixed signals on the 30-minute timeframe, with recent buying attempts lacking strong follow-through. This suggests a likely consolidation phase, but how the price interacts with key levels will provide

MUFG assess that EUR/USD is likely to fall under parity in the weeks ahead, citing: prospect of Trump trade tariffs soon after January 20 inauguration Trump likely to act quickly to implement tariffs Add in the weaker eurozone economic outlook compared to the US that there was no euro rally into 2024 year-end indicates traders

Adam had the news on this over the weekend: Trudeau expected to resign ‘by Monday’ – report Monday is still a hot pick,. but it could be Wednesday according to the latest. This via Canada media, Globe and Mail: The sources stressed that they don’t know definitely when Mr. Trudeau will announce his plans to

The item of most interest on the data calendar is the Caixin service PMI from China, for December 2024. We had the official PMIs from China last week, where services showed marked improvement: China official December Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.3) Services 52.2 (exp 50.2) China official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) December 2024 PMIs

If its your first day back at the markets after the break, and for many it will be, Happy New Year! As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Guide

The Caixin/S&P Global China General Services PMI is scheduled for release today, January 6, 2025, at 01:45 UTC, which is January 5 2045 US Eastern time: Over the past six months, the Caixin/S&P Global China General Services PMI has indicated consistent expansion in the services sector, with readings above the 50-mark. However, there have been

US economy ended 2024 in a good place Our job on inflation is not done Inflation has been coming down Says she suspects pressures from housing inflation and non-market services inflation are a bump Want to avoid any rapid increase in unemployment They’re in ‘wait-and-see’ mode and will wait for inflation to move or jobs

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Services PMI, German CPI, Canada Services PMI. Tuesday: Switzerland CPI, French CPI, Eurozone CPI, US ISM Services PMI, US Job Openings. Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, FOMC Minutes. Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail Sales, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US Jobless Claims. Friday: Switzerland

The latest poll in Canadian from Angus Reid has the governing Liberals at 16%, in a result that could leave them with as few as 5 seats in parliament. There have been a series of reports on various regional caucus revolts in the past few days and seems as though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has

Mon: EZ, UK & US Final Composite & Services PMIs (Dec), German Prelim. CPI (Dec), US Factory Orders (Nov) Tue: Swiss CPI (Dec), EZ Flash HICP (Dec), Canadian Trade Balance (Nov),US ISM Services PMI (Dec), JOLTS (Nov) Wed: FOMC Minutes (Dec); German Retail Sales (Nov), Swedish CPIF (Dec), Australian CPI (Nov), US ADP (Dec) Thu:

The price of bitcoin is trading to a new session high of $98,374. The current price is trading at $98,010. The run to the upside has taken the price closer to a swing area near $99,800. Just above that is a natural resistance at $100,000. A move above that area would give the buyers more

Crude oil futures are selling and $73.96 up $0.83 or 1.13%. The settlement price is the highest since October 11. Cold weather, and Chinese policy support are being cited as reasons for the rise today and for the trading week. This week the price has risen by $4.13 or 5.5%. Looking at the daily chart,

With 3 voting for “Others”, current House Speaker Johnson came up 2 votes shy of the 216 needed to secure the Speaker position. There will apparently be a 2nd vote shortly. Voting for “others”? Rep Massie (Kentucky) Rep Ralph Norman (South Carolina) Rep Keith Self (Texas) Massie has said that he would rather pull out

Major US indices snap losing streaks Fed Kugler: Economy ended 2024 in a good place. The economy is resilient Judge orders Trump to appear for sentencing on January 10 in hush money criminal case Crude oil futures settles higher at $73.96 Johnson has returned to the House floor. Rep Self and Norman have switched vote

Well this is very interesting. A judge denied a bid to dismiss the conviction due to his election win and told him to appear (in person or virtually) for sentencing on January 10 (next Friday). This will be an interesting one for legal experts. Update: The judge says he is not inclined to impose any

The vote for the Speaker of the House is underway. WIth 434 House members present it will take 218 votes to get elected Speaker. The House speaker election is a crucial test for Donald Trump’s leadership and legislative agenda as he prepares for his second term. Trump’s endorsement of Mike Johnson ties the speaker’s success

House Speaker Mike Johnson and 2 of the “other” votes have returned to the floor. Norman has switched his vote to Johnson and Self has switched to Johnson as well. That takes Rep Johnson to the 218 threshold on the first vote. He will retain the Speaker of the House position.. This article was written

Fed’s Kugler is on CNBC and says: US economy ended 2024 in a good place The economy is resilient Process of disinflation has kept going. Labor market remains resilient The labor market has been cooling gradually. Real wages are still up even with labor market cooling. The key is that job market has cooled gradually.

The major US stock indices are not been impacted by the voting for the Speaker of the House. The major indices are trading to new session highs in the currency hourly bar. Dow industrial average is up 333 points or 0.79% at 42726. For the week, the index is down -0.62% currently S&P index is

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count shows: Oil rigs -1 at 482 Gas rigs +1 at 103 Total rigs unchanged at 589 Crude oil is trading at $74.13. That is one dollar on the day. For the trading week, the price is up 5.65% with a gain of $3.97. This article was written by Greg

Major US indices are closing solidly higher and in doing so are snapping multi-day losing streaks. For the Dow Industrial average it snapped its 4-day losing streak. For the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices,. they both snapped 5-day losing streaks. For the trading week, the indices are closing lower. A snapshot of the closing levels

Things are not looking good for the Speaker of the House Johnson on the first vote. Three have voted for “Others”. Johnson could only afford 1 “other” vote assuming members vote along party lines. What next? There can be a 2nd vote taken or they can go back and try to solicit support from those

Earlier: Biden to announce Friday on whether he’ll approve Japanese acquisition of U.S. Steel That report is challenged now by a piece in the Washington Post reporting that Biden will block sale of US Steel to Japanese buyer. WaPo is gated, but here is the link: Biden decides to block U.S. Steel sale to Japanese

Mixed market signals: Tech stocks rally as NVIDIA and Amazon lead gains Today’s stock market heatmap showcases a notable rally in the technology and consumer cyclical sectors, with standout performances from NVIDIA and Amazon, while other sectors show mixed results. Here’s what you need to know about the dynamics shaping today’s trading landscape. 🌟 Technology

Headlines: USD/CNY pushes above 7.30 for the first time since late 2023 It’s been a real rough week for Chinese stocks Trump: Tariffs will make America wealthy again Germany December unemployment change 10k vs 15k expected UK November mortgage approvals 65.72k vs 68.50k expected Switzerland December manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs 48.3 expected China vows to

The concerns are certainly mounting as doubt continues to be cast on Beijing’s ability to stem the economic decline. Domestic demand being dead in the water and weakening consumption remain the biggest issues that needs to be addressed. And investors don’t appear all too optimistic to start the new year. The CSI 300 index has

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are all for EUR/USD, layered in between the 1.0200 to 1.0300 levels. After the steeper decline overnight thanks to a stronger dollar, the pair is now at its lowest since November 2022. And what is troubling is that

The Nasdaq indices run to the upside is continuing with the price currently up 279 points or 1.45% at 19558.42. The high price reached 19560.11. Looking at the hourly chart above, the price is also approaching its 200-hour moving average at 19571.58. The price fell below that moving average on December 30 and reached a

The major European indices fell in trading today after corrective moves to the upside stalled today. There also is a shift out of the European stocks and back into the US indices The S&P index is up around 1% while the NASDAQ index is up around 1.4%. A snapshot of the European closes shows: France’s

President Biden to announce his decision as soon as Friday on whether he’ll approve proposed Japanese buyer Nippon Steel’s multi-billion-dollar acquisition of U.S. Steel Via CBS reporter: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

More from Fed’s Barkin: Still perceive core underlying inflation is coming down nicely Message from businesses is loud and clear that consumers are becoming more price sensitive Expect 12-month inflation to decline in coming months, particularly given base effects over prior year Pass through from tariffs to prices is not straightforward, depends on multiple factors

Fed’s Barkin is on the wires saying: Baseline outlook for 2025 is positive, with more upside than downside risk to growth As long as employment and asset values remain strong, consumers will spend Inflation still not back to target, more work to do Story of 2025 will be less about monetary policy, more about economic

Friday at 11 am US Eastern time (1600 GMT) Participation by ECB board member Philip Lane in a panel on “Geopolitical Fragmentation”, hosted by the American Finance Association (AFA) at annual meeting of American Economic Association (AEA)/Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) Saturday at 11 am US Eastern time (1600 GMT) Lane is chairing a panel

The USDCAD moved lower during the Asia-Pacific session, breaking below the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, which are positioned between 1.4389 and 1.4386. The decline reached a low of 1.43824 but lacked momentum to push further downward. In the early European session, the price started to stabilize near these moving average levels, and by the

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 2024 falls to 2.4% versus 2.6% on January 2. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on January 3, down from 2.6 percent on January 2. After this morning’s Manufacturing

The decline in the USD today, has seen a reversal with the better US ISM manufacturing PMI data : EURUSD. The EURUSD peaked at 1.0305 just before the data was released. That was just short of the 38.2% retracement of the weeks trading range at 1.03128. Stay below the 38.2% retracement today and going forwar

Prior month 48.4 PMI manufacturing index register the price level since March 2024. Manufacturing PMI: December: 49.3, November: 48.4 (+0.9) – HIGHER New Orders: December: 52.5, November: 50.4 (+2.1) – HIGHER Production: December: 50.3, November: 46.8 (+3.5) – HIGHER Employment: December: 45.3, November: 48.1 (-2.8) – LOWER Supplier Deliveries: December: 50.1, November: 48.7 (+1.4) –

TGIF! Yes it is Friday. I know I have to source my calendar as the markets continue the reheat after the Holiday season. The USD is trading modestly lower today after the rise seen yesterday. The US initial claims came in better than expected at 211K vs 222K estimate. The S&P Global PMI data was

Russell 2000 Futures Trading Map: Key Levels for the March 2025 Contract Current Price Analysis for E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures (RTY) The E-mini Russell 2000 index futures (RTY) are trading at 2253.3, with a defined range between 2265.9 (top) and 2234.3 (bottom). For traders navigating the Russell 2000 futures market, the following key levels

Bitcoin Futures Trading Map: Key Levels for January 2025 Contract Current Price: $97,530 (BTC/USD, just before the U.S. market open) Today’s analysis for Bitcoin futures (BTC January 2025) highlights key levels to watch as the market prepares for potential moves. Whether you’re trading Bitcoin against the USD or speculating on BTC futures, these insights can

Euro Futures (6E Mar 2025): Day Trading Analysis and Key Levels [Jan 03, 2025] The Euro Futures (6E March 2025) are currently trading at 1.03145, rising from yesterday’s low near 1.02565, which is today’s Value Area Low (VAL) and remains a naked level. Below is a detailed breakdown of key levels and examples of how

More from Richard Fed Pres. Barkin: US debt is large and growing and puts pressure on long rates US housing demand still very healthy compared to supply This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The pound is the weakest performer today, falling 1.15% on the first real trading day of the year. Deutsche Bank notes that there is a pattern here: Remarkably, this extends sterling’s losing run on the first day of the trading year to seven years (i.e. performance on the first trading day after New Year’s Day).

The futures of the major US stock indices are tilted toward a positive open. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are looking to snap 5-day losing streaks. The Dow industrial average has been down for 4 consecutive days. In premarket trading, the futures are implying: . The Dow industrial average is up 197 points S&P

US manufacturing sentiment has been poor but plenty of comments in reports have highlighted the election as a potential catalyst. The November ISM manufacturing report saw some improvement but it’s still below 50 and expected to stay that way in the December data with the consensus at 48.4. Even if there is some improvement, there

The USDCHF is lower on the day and testing a swing area going back to April and June 2024 between 0.9086 and 0.90978. If the sellers are to keep pushing, getting and staying below the high of that swing area (up to 0.9100 level) is required. On the downside, the rising 100-hour moving average comes

NASDAQ Futures Trading Map: Key Price Levels for Today This analysis provides a detailed trading map for NASDAQ futures on the March contract, highlighting critical levels to monitor. These key price levels can guide traders in evaluating price action and identifying attractive reward-to-risk opportunities. No specific trade predictions or calls are provided—this is a guide

Japanese Yen Futures (6J Mar 2025): Day Trading Analysis and Key Levels [Jan 03, 2025] The Japanese Yen Futures (6J March 2025) are trading at 0.0064125, sitting just above today’s developing VWAP and slightly below yesterday’s VWAP, which closed at 0.0064152. Current price action is within a range defined by yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH)

The broker LiteFinance has announced the launch of a large-scale trading contest to celebrate its 20th anniversary. From January 1 to December 31, 2025, participants from around the world will have the opportunity to showcase their skills and compete for cash prizes, with a total prize pool more than $1,000,000. About the Contest The competition

Rachel Reeves is the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. The UK TImes (gated) reports that Reeves has warned ministers to consider cuts to frontline services they will have to consider cuts to frontline services if they want to fund above-inflation pay rises for public-sector workers Treasury has taken a hardline stance told ministers that there

Yoon protection detail is not allowing police to serve the arrest warrant. Background to this is here: Arrest of South Korean President Yoon being attempted, mkt stabilization measures promised Since that post police encountered the military guarding Yoon’s residence blocking attempts to enter. Police have since gained permission from the military to enter the premises.

People’s Bank of China says an interest rate cut this year is likely at an appropriate time. The main policy rate in China is the OMO reverse repo. This is currently at 1.5% and its this the PBoC says it’ll be cutting. FT is gated, headlines via Reuters: Chinese central bank said it was likely

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s State planner. China’s stock markets plunged in the first session of the new year. It seems to have prompted attempts at official support. NDRC official: China plans to increase issuance of special treasury bonds with longer maturity in 2025 –

None of this lot is likely to move around major FX at all upon release. As an aside, Japanese markets remain closed for Friday, another holiday. That GDP data is coming from South Korea if you are unfamiliar with the little flag. South Korea is battling to preserve some of the value of the won

The NDRC mentions that “the size of ultra-long special government bond funds will be sharply increased this year to intensify and expand the implementation of two new initiatives”. That being a subsidy programme where consumers can trade in old durable goods and buy new ones at a discount, as well as a subsidy programme allowing

British Pound Futures (6B Mar 2025): Day Trading Analysis and Key Levels [Jan 03, 2025] The British Pound Futures (6B March 2025) have continued their bearish trend, as highlighted in our analysis yesterday, reaching a low of 1.2347 (yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL)) before rebounding slightly. Below is an updated analysis of key levels and

Prior 6k Unemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.2% expected Prior 6.1% German unemployment rises by less than expected last month while the jobless rate remains steady at 6.1%. Amid the continued manufacturing recession, this will be one spot to be mindful about in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 Futures Analysis and ES Trading Map for Today This detailed S&P 500 futures analysis focuses on the March contract for ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures), evaluating key levels, market trends, and potential price movements. The analysis covers critical resistance and support areas, a price prediction map for bearish and bullish scenarios, and actionable

China’s central bank is reported as saying its likely to cut this year: PBOC says interest rate cuts are likely in 2025 “at an appropriate time” Given the opening session of Chinese stock markets this year: A rough start for Chinese stocks to start the new year I’m guessing the PBoC is trying to support

Australian Dollar Futures (6A Mar 2025): Day Trading Analysis and Key Levels [Jan 03, 2025] The Australian Dollar Futures (6A March 2025) are consolidating after bottoming near 0.618 two days ago. Currently, price is trading just above today’s developing VWAP at 0.62125 and yesterday’s VWAP at 0.62080. Below is a breakdown of key levels and

US weekly initial jobless claims 211K vs 222K expected US December S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs 49.7 prior US November construction spending 0.0% vs +0.3% expected Canada December S&P Global PMI 52.2 vs 52.0 prior Biden discussed plans for striking Iran if it moves towards building a nuclear bomb US 30-year fixed mortgage rate

On Saturday at 1730 US Eastern time (2230 GMT), Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler participate in “Monetary Policy” panel before the American Economic Association/ASSA annual meeting. Kugler is a Board Governor and therefore is a permanent voter at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

HSBC’s head multi-asset strategist has highlighted the Federal Reserve’s hawkish messaging at its December meeting as a cause for concern: the hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve has led to higher yields this has triggered the “Danger Zone”, meaning that January will likely be volatile across most asset classes On the more encouraging side, this

If you’ve been following this for some time, this is no surprise. But this puts to an end the drawn out and contentious proposal involving $14.9 billion. For some context, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) deferred their decision on the approving the acquisition to Joe Biden. Hence, the president has the

Canadian Dollar Futures (6C Mar 2025): Day Trading Analysis and Key Levels [Jan 03, 2025] The Canadian Dollar Futures (6C March 2025) are currently trading at 0.69610, testing yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH) at 0.69605, which may act as a temporary support level. Below is an analysis of key levels for today and possible scenarios

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is the state planner. An official says: To boost employment, income growth, and social security. To stabilize the property market, boost capital markets, and address risks facing local financial institutions. Has allocated 100 billion yuan in 2025 for two “new” and two

With Trump continuing to threaten tariffs, one can reasonably expect the yuan to be China’s first line of defense against that. From last month: Is this Beijing’s first line of defense against Trump? China is considering to allow the yuan to weaken next year as trade risks loom – report The case is certainly building

Prior 68.30k; revised to 68.13k Net consumer credit £0.9 billion Prior £1.1 billion; revised to £1.0 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. Net mortgage approvals fell in November, as net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals also fell to £2.5 billion during the month. That follows from an increase in net borrowing

Eurostoxx -0.2% Germany DAX -0.1% France CAC 40 -0.5% UK FTSE +0.1% Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% European indices fought saw a push and pull start to the year yesterday before closing things out on a more positive note. However, some late selling in Wall Street is a reminder that the mood music

From his Twitter page: “The Tariffs, and Tariffs alone, created this vast wealth for our Country. Then we switched over to Income Tax. We were never so wealthy as during this period. Tariffs will pay off our debt and, MAKE AMERICA WEALTHY AGAIN!” Tariff man is back at it again as he continues to reaffirm

11:00 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum scheduled for 11 am US Eastern time (1600 GMT) Barkin tends to lean hawkish. This is a handy cheat sheet via itcmarkets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 48.5 That marks more than two years now that Swiss manufacturing activity is stuck in contraction mode. Things did improve somewhat during Q3 but not quite enough. The only bright side is that Switzerland relies more on its services sector, so there’s that. Looking at the details here, employment conditions remain a problem as

Earlier from the Bank, signalling the likelihood of interest rate cut or cuts this year: PBOC says interest rate cuts are likely in 2025 “at an appropriate time” *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the

Axios reports that US President Biden was presented with options for a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if Tehran moves towards a nuclear weapon before Jan 20. The meeting took place ‘several weeks ago’ and Biden “did not green light a strike during the meeting and has not done so since, the sources said.”

RBC projects the USD/CNY exchange rate to rise to 7.55 by year-end. Analysts at the bank cite: weak economic prospects for China, the economy remains burdened by the real estate slump and sluggish consumer spending, with no clear resolution in sight for these issues the likelihood of another US-China trade war following Trump’s win yield

Yonhap (South Korean media) is reporting that around 2,700 police officers are deployed to ensure that the arrest of impeached South Korean President Yoon Seok-yoel goes without incident. Yoon’s December 3rd Emergency Martial Rule declaration has triggered the order for his arrest. Its uncertain if Yoon’s Protection Detachment will allow authorities to serve the arrest

Stocks started strong, with futures particularly high, but there was some profit-taking right out of the gate, especially in high flyers like Tesla and Apple. For tax reasons, many investors were to waiting for the new year to take profits, and some high flyers struggled today. Tesla’s delivery numbers were soft, and Apple faced demand

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is the state planner. An official says: Will sharply increase funding from ultra-long treasury bonds this year to support “two new” programs. Says expects consumption to maintain steady growth in 2025. Says China’s economy is facing many new difficulties and challenges in

Washington Post reports that Biden will block sale of US Steel to Japanese buyer Fed’s Daly and Kugler are speaking on Saturday, January 4, 2025 – topic is monetary policy China state planner official says to boost employment, income growth, and social security China’s state planner official says ample room for macro policies in 2025

Post up any trade ideas if you’d like to. Or, alternatively, take this final day of silly season to chill a little. From Monday it’s all go again! (not) My local beach! 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier from the Bank, signalling the likelihood of interest rate cut or cuts this year: PBOC says interest rate cuts are likely in 2025 “at an appropriate time” More: RBC forecasts a much weaker yuan in 2025, project USD/CNY to 7.55 by year end *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around

The early optimism in US stock markets has faded. The S&P 500 is down 35 points, or 0.6% with all the selling coming in the past hour. Particularly notable are the declines in Tesla (6.8%) and Apple (-3.1%). Tesla had poor sales numbers while Apple is discounting prices in China. I don’t think that tells

Optimism is high for many sectors of the US economy in 2025 but one area that’s slumped since the election is home builders. That’s co-incided with better economic data since September and rising 30-year bond yields. There is a psychological barrier at 7% that scares away US home buyers and we’re perilously close to that

Shares of Tesla have been a big post-election winner as Elon Musk cozies up to the President-elect. There has been some selling of TSLA in the past week, in part because of angst about auto sales. The Q4 number will be released around the top of the hour and the consensus is 506,763. I’m tempted

Prior 53.1 Spain’s manufacturing activity accelerated slightly in December, helped by a rise in both output and new orders. Employment conditions also held up while inflationary pressures were deemed as “broadly contained”. All of this just continues to reaffirm that the Spanish economy is still one of the few bright spots in Europe at the

Europe has been a dog for a long time compared to the US but the scoreboard reset on Wednesday. Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 +0.6% German DAX +0.5% France CAC +0.1% UK FTSE 100 +1.0% Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% Through two hours of 2025 trading, Europe is beating the US.

The US dollar as the top performer in 2023 and 2024. So far, 2025 is much the same as the US dollar surges to start the year. It’s up more than 1% against the euro and pound and is outshining every other major currency. In terms of economic news, there wasn’t much today aside from

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.5%) Construction spending at $2.152T annual rate, unchanged from October Private construction +0.1% m/m to $1.651T Public construction -0.1% m/m to $501.9B YoY growth +3.0% vs +6.5% prior Segments: Residential: +0.1% m/m, up 3.1% y/y Nonresidential: flat m/m, +2.8% y/y Manufacturing: -0.2% m/m but still strong at +11.3% y/y Construction

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The best thing you can say about the euro is that it’s so hated that sentiment can hardly get worse. Then again, you could have said that on New Years Eve and it’s down 100 pips to start the year. As they say, it’s always darkest…before it goes completely black. There isn’t much support on

The Japanese Yen Futures (6J March 2025) are trading at 0.006438, while the USD/JPY pair on FXCM is at 156.64. It’s important to remember that rising Japanese Yen Futures correlate with a declining USD/JPY pair. Below are the key price levels and major events that could shape the Japanese yen market today and in the

A technically-driven move is undoing the pound on the first real trading day of 2025. 2024 wasn’t a great year for the pound but it mostly kept pace with the US dollar due to a hawkish stance at the Bank of England relative to other developed market central banks. But it’s not exactly gangbusters for

December is historically a very strong seasonal time for gold but prices fell in the month for the first time in eight years. The December decline was mild from $2653 to $2623 but it was a disappointment after the month began with China’s central bank announcing that it resumed gold purchases for the first time

Prior -12.6% Market index 174.9 vs 224.0 prior Purchase index 136.7 vs 157.1 prior Refinance index 395.1 vs 617.5 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.97% vs 6.75% prior Just be mindful that this accounts for two weeks of changes, that being in the week to 20 December and also the week to 27 December. The benchmark

Prior 43.0 No change to the initial estimate with the reading being a 3-month low. The same goes for the output index, which closes the year at 41.7 and down from 43.1 in November. This just stresses on the narrative that the German manufacturing sector is still in recession territory with little optimism in sight.

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.3% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% It’s a decent start to proceedings as equities are keeping with a slight optimism to start the new year. The DAX did peel back off the 20,000 mark at the end of last month but will

In case you missed the post here last week: What’s the next step for major central banks in 2025? January will feature a couple of major central bank decisions, namely the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOC. As things stand, traders are pricing in no change for the Fed while the ECB and BOC are expected

Prior was -4237 Gasoline +7717K vs +314K expected Distillates +6406K vs -52K expected Refinery utilization +0.2% vs +0.2% expected These are some bearish numbers, particularly on the product side. WTI crude oil was at the highs of the day ahead of the report at $73.53, up $1.79. This article was written by Adam Button at

Today’s stock market reveals significant activity in the technology sector, with notable gains among major players like Amazon and Google. Meanwhile, the auto manufacturer sector faces challenges, led by a decline in Tesla. 📈 Tech Sector: Rising Momentum The technology sector is experiencing robust growth, highlighted by an impressive 1.56% gain in Nvidia (NVDA) and

Prior 48.0 The slight revision lower marks an 11-month low for the headline reading. That comes as the rates of contraction for output, new orders, and employment all gathered pace in December. While the UK economy does rely more on services, this still isn’t a good sign as the plague from Europe starts to spread

On January 20, the new (or old) President of the U.S., Donald Trump, will be inaugurated, and the big question on the minds of private investors and governments alike is: what now? Throughout his campaign, Trump made numerous promises, including tackling the US national debt, ending the Ukraine conflict in one day, and, of course,

Prior was 49.7 Mid-month reading was 48.3 Output falls to 18 month low New orders decline accelerates after near-stabilization in November Export orders fall more than domestic orders, weakness in Europe and Australia Employment continues modest growth for second month Input cost inflation jumps to highest since August Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P

Japanese markets are closed today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday). There is no fresh news nor data out of Japan, but USD/JPY has moved a little higher, back above 157.70. Meanwhile, on Globex, S&P 500 futures opened with a gap higher after the Wednesday holiday but subsequently filled it in and is barely changed. Update:

Prior week 220K 4-week moving average 223.25K vs 226.5 prior Continuing claims 1.844M vs 1.890M expected Prior week continuing claims 1.910M At this time of year, it’s not a good idea to make any conclusions about the economy based on initial jobless claims. There are some heavy seasonal adjustments around the holidays. This article was

Deliveries vs 506,763 expected (though some surveys were near 512K) Production 459,445 vs 460,705 expected Model 3/Y deliveries at 471,930 Other models (mostly Cybertruck) 23,640 Press release Shares of Tesla were trading at $409.60 in the premarket before the release and are quickly down to $387. The miss looks like it was mostly on the

The S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES March 2025) are trading at 5969.75 at the time of this analysis. Below is a breakdown of the key levels and the broader market outlook for both S&P 500 intraday traders and swing traders. S&P 500 E-mini Futures Levels for Traders Today Bullish Bias Levels for ES 5952.95: Today’s

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is down more than 2%. Apart from what has been posted there is nothing fresh. The Nikkei is closed today (Japan markets holidays today and tomorrow) but I’ve left it in … if the global slide continues it’ll be very ugly for Japan on Monday. This article was written by

Headlines: Euro, sterling in retreat mode to start the new year What will major central banks be up to in January? ICYMI: China has adjusted its yuan basket weightings for this year Eurozone November M3 money supply +3.8% vs +3.5% y/y expected Eurozone December final manufacturing PMI 45.1 vs 45.2 prelim UK December final manufacturing

It’s a slow and steady start to the new year, with the dollar keeping a little mixed but marginally lower at the balance on the day. It is still a holiday in some parts of the world but US markets are open so we might get some early action already later on. For now, major

Prior was 52.0 This is the best reading since February 2023. Output and new orders show solid growth Some US clients stockpiling ahead of expected Trump tariffs in 2025 Port and postal strikes causing supply chain disruptions Input cost inflation highest since April 2023 The Canadian manufacturing sector ended 2024 on a positive note, with

Happy new year, everyone! I hope you enjoyed the holiday break and some of you might still are until next week. If so, definitely rest up well and hope the new year will be a good one for all of us. To kick things off, let’s start with the good ol’ option expiries routine. There

This builds from Eamonn’s post earlier: The yuan has hit its highest since mid-October 2022 (using its trade-weighted value) According to the CFETS, which is overseen by the PBOC, the dollar’s weighting in the yuan currency basket has been adjusted to 18.903%. That is down from 19.46% previously with the change having gone into effect

A very ugly result, comes in at 47.8 slumping further from November’s awful 49.4 and below the flash estimate of 48.2 The flash reading for this can be found here: Australia preliminary manufacturing PMI December slumps to 48.2 (prior 49.4 ) In summary: Deterioration in Conditions: Manufacturing conditions declined at a faster pace in December,

Tesla (TSLA) is currently trading above its developing value area low (VAL) at $401.91 of today, a critical support level that aligns closely with key levels from December 10th at $400.39 and $400.99. These levels, along with the psychological $400 round number, mark a significant support zone where the market recently reversed upward after an

Prior +1.2% That’s a strong end to the year for UK house prices, with the annual gain for 2024 seen at 4.7% compared to the same period a year ago. The average price of a UK dwelling is now estimated at £269,426. Looking to this year, Nationwide notes that: “Upcoming changes to stamp duty are

Japan is closed today and tomorrow: Thursday, January 2, 2025 Friday, January 3, 2025 The Tokyo Exchange is closed, as are bond markets. From the SIFMA site, Japan bond markets are closed for 8 days in January and February … This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea trade data were released on Wednesday: Exports in December +6.6% y/y expected +4%, previous +1.4% When exports are adjusted for the working-day differences they increased 4.3% y/y in December vs. +3.7% in November Some of the reports I am seeing cite the improvement on “demand from China increased while semiconductor sales stayed resilient”.

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ March 2025) are trading at 21,474 at the time of this analysis, continuing a bullish move. Below is a breakdown of key price levels and what traders should watch as the market progresses. Bullish Bias Levels for NQ Today 21,438: A potential cooling-off level where price may pause. If

January is already promising some big moves in the major currencies space and we’re off to a rather decent start. The euro and sterling are being offered in European morning trade, both stumbling lower across the board. Of note, EUR/USD is now down to its lowest since November 2022 while GBP/USD is down to its

The CFETS RMB Index (often referred to as the “yuan CFETS Index”) is a trade-weighted currency index published by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS). It measures the value of the Chinese yuan (CNY) against a basket of currencies from China’s major trading partners. While the USD is appreciating globally, weakening the yuan in

South Korea’s finance ministry announced that starting mid-January, registered foreign financial institutions (RFIs) will be permitted to conduct foreign exchange (FX) trading for current transactions, such as export and import settlements. This policy is part of South Korea’s efforts to boost the international use of the won and follows previous measures allowing foreign institutions to

Introduction to Bitcoin Futures Bitcoin futures provide a regulated and centralized environment for traders to speculate on the price movements of Bitcoin, offering transparency and reduced counterparty risk compared to the spot market. These contracts are widely traded on exchanges like CME Group, known for their liquidity and accessibility. With Bitcoin Futures, traders can gain

Prior 45.2 It’s a marginal revision lower with the reading being the lowest in 3 months. The output index falls further to 44.3 though, down from 45.1 in November. And that marks its lowest reading in 14 months. Pain. Overall, it reaffirms further struggles in Germany and France mostly with the former still weighing heavily

German DAX futures +0.5% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures as equities look to be off to a more optimistic start to the new year. S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% with Nasdaq futures up 0.8% and Dow futures up 0.5% on the day. It’s still early though with Wall

Prior 43.1 No change to the initial estimate with the headline reading being a 55-month low. Ouch. The worry here besides the very soft demand environment is that employment conditions are also starting to be hit. The pace of job shedding was the sharpest in five months and accelerated markedly since November. HCOB notes that:

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The British Pound Futures (6B March 2025) are trading at 1.2482, correlating closely with the GBP/USD Forex pair at 1.24877. The British Pound appears bearish in the broader context, with key levels pointing to further downside potential. Below is a detailed breakdown for both swing traders and day traders. GBPUSD Swing Traders: Broader Bearish Trend

The Australian Dollar Futures (6A March 2025) are trading at 0.62150, closely aligned with the AUD/USD Forex pair on FXCM at 0.62140. Below are the key levels and signals to guide your trading decisions for today and the days ahead. Bullish Map: Key Levels for Australian Dollar Futures 0.62086: Today’s developing VWAP. Price holding above

The CSI 300 index closed down by 2.9% today while the Shanghai Composite has closed down by 2.7%. The softer PMI data from earlier here certainly did not help with the mood. But when it comes to China now, there are storm clouds brewing over its economy for the year ahead. And that’s the bigger

Prior +3.4% Broad money growth expanded quite decently in November compared to the same period a year ago, up from the 3.4% year-on-year estimate in October. Looking at the details, adjusted loans to households also grew to 0.9% but adjusted loans to non-financial corporations did ease to 1.0% on the month. This article was written

Prior 44.5 It’s an improvement to the month before but remains in contraction territory, with both output and new orders also slipping in December. HCOB notes that: “The Italian manufacturing sector remains in a challenging situation at the end of the year. The sector continues to struggle with weak demand from the eurozone, high energy

Earlier this week we had the official PMIs from China for December: China official December Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expectedd 50.3) Services 52.2 (exp 50.2) The manufacturing PMI disappointed, but non-manufacturing jumped solidly higher: China official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) December 2024 PMIs – why the long face? Today we get the second of China’s

South Korea to ease FX trading rules, trying to attract further fund inflows China mainland and Hong Kong equites have traded much lower to start 2025 The yuan has hit its highest since mid-October 2022 (using its trade-weighted value) Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (December 2024) 50.5 vs. expected 51.7 ICYMI – Why does China have

Today’s Trading Compass for Euro Forex Futures (6E) Euro forex (FX) futures allow traders to speculate on the price changes in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Unlike the decentralized forex cash market, futures trading offers a regulated, centralized environment, reducing counterparty risks. Together with the USD and Japanese yen, euro FX futures form the backbone of

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (December 2024) is a disappointment at 50.5 vs. expected 51.7 and prior of 51.5 In really brief, some highlights lowlights: New orders and output growth both slow from November Employment down marginally Average selling prices decline despite rising input prices *** From the report, in summary. Overall Expansion: The manufacturing sector

Markets in New Zealand are closed for the ‘Day after New Year’ holiday today, Thursday, January 2, 2025. What a great idea for another holiday! Meanwhile, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, China will all be on today, although much of the wholesale market won;t really return until Monday January 6. This article was written by

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX year! Market liquidity is very thin. It’ll it improves as Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Of course, its even more precarious than usual with all the

Today we get the second of China’s monthly manufacturing PMIs, from Caixin/S&P Global, due at 0145 GMT, which is 2045 US Eastern time: Earlier this week I posted on the difference between the official and the Caixin PMIs. ICYMI … The PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Caixin/S&P Global

Singapore GDP Q4 2024 +4.3% y/y expected +3.3%, previous +5.4% +0.1% q/q expected -0.4%, prior +3.2% Economic Growth: Singapore’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2024, a significant increase from the 1.1% growth in 2023, according to preliminary government data. In the fourth quarter, GDP expanded by 4.3% year-on-year, surpassing economists’ median forecast of 3.3%. This

The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas. Liquidity and interest are going to remain thin. It’ll pick up a little today and tomorrow but will approach normal from the 6th. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

European Central Bank President Lagarde posted a video to Twitter on January 1, with some comments on eurozone inflation: “We have made significant progress in 2024 in bringing down inflation and hopefully 2025 is the year when we are on target as expected and as planned in our strategy,” “Of course we will continue our

Awful news from the US over the new year holiday: New Orleans shaken by deadly car attack: Dozens killed and injured Its unclear if the explosion of the Tesla vehicle is related, but one person is dead and seven injured: A Tesla Cybertruck exploded outside Trump International Hotel Las Vegas’ entrance Link to (not very

A devastating attack in New Orleans A horrific act of violence has shaken the heart of New Orleans, leaving a trail of unimaginable grief and sorrow. A man deliberately drove his car into a crowd, transforming a scene of normalcy into one of chaos and terror. At least 10 lives were tragically cut short, leaving

It was a great year for the bulls as every dip was bought. It was a tougher scenario globally but the US market was a big winner. On the day: S&P 500 -0.4% Nasdaq -0.9% DJIA -0.1% Russell 2000 +0.1% Toronto TSX Comp +0.4% On the month: S&P 500 -2.5% Nasdaq +0.5% DJIA +0.5% Russell

Welcome to 2025! The clock has turned on the foreign exchange market and we’re onto the new charts. Here are the final closing levels for 2024 for the major pairs Euro: 1.0354 Japanese Yen: 157.21 British Pound: 1.2524 Swiss Franc: 0.9072 Canadian Dollar: 1.4380 Australian Dollar: 0.6188 New Zealand Dollar: 0.5582 US Dollar Index: 1.0380

The New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen are the two-worst performing major currencies of 2024. That’s an odd occurrence as they often find themselves on the opposite sides of the spectrum as a traditional high yielder (NZD) and low yielder (JPY). This year, the US dollar took an 11.6% bite out of both. It certainly

The strength of the US dollar was the story of the year in the forex market once again in 2024 and it’s finishing strong today. The dollar slumped late in 2023 as the market saw rate cuts but they didn’t start until late in 2024 and now some analysts think they’re already done, while the

Prices up 4.2% y/y vs +4.6% prior Prices down 0.2% m/m vs -0.4% prior non-seasonally adjusted Prices up 0.3% vs +0.2% expected, seasonally adjusted Separate housing data from the FHFA: Prices +0.4% m/m vs +0.7% prior Prices +4.5% y/y vs +4.5% prior Home builders have been one of the worst-performing sectors in Q4 as rates

Sector Overview: Winners and Losers in Focus The US stock market is presenting a mixed bag of performances today, where certain sectors and key players are standing out. 🚗 Consumer Cyclical: Tesla (TSLA) steals the spotlight with a significant rise of 1.89%. This surge highlights investor optimism in the auto manufacturers’ space, potentially driven by

Xinhua with the info (via Reuters headlines): China’s President Xi and Russia’s Putin exchange New Year greetings Xi, to Putin: China and Russia always move forward hand in hand along the right path of non-alliance, non-confrontation, and not targeting any third party Xi, to Putin: China-Russia political mutual trust and strategic coordination are continuously marching

Clyde Russell at Reuters takes a look at a few scenarios for global markets in 2025 and how they will play out. It’s a good time to think through some different ideas, even if you disagree with some of the takes here. Not surprisingly, the list is dominated by the uncertainty of how Trump and

With only one day left to go, let’s take a look and what were the best and worst performers in each asset class during the year. Were there any standouts and/or surprises that might catch your eye? Here’s a look at the major currencies space with the dollar as a benchmark: GBP -1.4% CNY -2.8%

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate. CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range. A significantly stronger or weaker rate

The official PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will be published today. I’ve referred to ‘green shoots’ beginning, tentatively, to show for the Chinese economy. PMIs have been key to this. In H2 of 2024 manufacturing has improved, slowly, while services have held in expansion. Manufacturing PMI: July 2024: 49.4, indicating contraction in

Is Tesla Stock a Buy or Sell? Analyzing the Technical and Fundamental Signals Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is at a pivotal point, with its stock showing significant technical bearish signals and soaring valuation ratios. Investors are keen to understand whether Tesla represents a prudent investment opportunity. Here’s an in-depth look at both the technical patterns

Axios with the info (may be gated): Hackers connected to China’s government successfully breached several Treasury Department workstations and accessed unclassified documents, according to a letter to Congress on Monday. The hackers, which Treasury has linked to an unspecified Chinese state-sponsored hacking group, gained access to Treasury’s networks via software service provider BeyondTrust Chinese hackers

It’s another patchy week of holidays, official and unofficial. The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas. Liquidity and interest is going to remain thin. It’ll pick up a little from January 2 and 3 but will approach normal from the 6th. This article was written

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin spoke – Xi says two will move forward hand in hand Is Tesla Stock a Buy or Sell? China official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) December 2024 PMIs – why the long face? USD/JPY under 156.50 China official December Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.3) Services 52.2 (exp 50.2) PBOC sets

For the record I’m not buying that reason I cited in the sub heading. Yes, equities weakened in the US … but AUD and EUR have been stable to up in Asia so far. Still, there is some demand for JPY. Be cautious of reading too much for too long into moves in these thin

December Manufacturing PMI drops from November and comes in not as strong as expected at 50.1 expected 50.3, prior 50.3 more positively manufacturing now in expansion for three months Non-Manufacturing PMI more than makes up for it, jumping well over November and the median estimate to 52.2 expected 50.2, prior 50.0 Composite 52.2 prior 50.8

The data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is here: China official December Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.3) Services 52.2 (exp 50.2) In brief: Manufacturing PMI 50.1 slightly down from 50.3 in November third consecutive month of expansion fell short of the median forecast of 50.3 Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.2 from 50.0 in

South Korean inflation data for December 2024 Headline CPI +1.9% y/y, the most rapid rise in 4 months but below the central bank’s 2% target expected +1.7%, prior +1.5% Headline CPI +0.4% m/m expected +0.2%, prior -0.3% Core +1.8% y/y prior +1.9% For the year 2024, inflation came in at +2.3% y/y well down on

Today’s we’ll get the official, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), PMIs for December from China. Preview here: Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, December 31, 2024 – China official December PMIs due On Thursday (January 2) we’ll get the other manufacturing PMI, from Caixin/ S&P Global: The two PMIs are quite different. If you are unfamiliar

A dark day is looming. Some time in the coming week, US President Joe Biden will reject a $14.9 billion takeover of US Steel by Nippon Steel on unconscionably shaky grounds. It will mark the end of the era of American free-market capitalism that has brought so much prosperity to the United States and the

One of the global secular trends unfolding right now is an anti-immigration streak in politics. It’s winning elections and that looks set to continue in Germany and Canada in 2025, among elsewhere. For the US, Goldman Sachs notes that net US immigration has already fallen from 3 million in 2023 to a 1.75 million pace

The polar vortex is pushing south and east in what could be a record-breaking cold snap in parts of the United States. Several models are converging around cold weather in the eastern half of the US in the second week of January. The peak of the cold looks to be around January 12 but some

The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up

US equities have had a decent bounce off the lows but are still deeply in negative territory. The S&P 500 is down 57 points to 5913 after falling as low as 5869. If the index falls 1% it would be the first time since 1952 that it’s had two 1% (or more) declines in the

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close on January 9 to observe the national day of morning for former US President Jimmy Carter, who died yesterday. This follows the normal tradition of stock markets closing for the funerals of former Presidents. It came as something of a surprise that the bond market will

Xinhua with the heads up: China’s President Xi will deliver a New Year’s message Scheduled for 7 pm Beijing time on Tuesday 2300 GMT and 0600 US Eastern time on Monday, December 30, 2024 I wonder if he’ll have anything to say on economic stimulus? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY is trading in a modest range today at 59 pips vs the 22 day average (about a month of trading) at 139 pips. The price high came in at 158.064. That was just short of the high price from last week at 158.080. Sellers leaned and pushed the price mostly lower. The low

Sector Overview The US stock market is experiencing significant turndowns, especially within the tech sector. A pervasive wave of red in the heatmap underscores a day of declines: 📉 Technology: Leading the downward trend, technology giants Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) are down by 1.23% and 1.54% respectively. The decline in this sector may stem

In the past, SIFMA has recommended a full closure on the day of the funerals of former Presidents — including for George H.W. Bush in 2018 and Ronald Reagan in 2004. For Carter, they’re only recommending an early close on January 9 at 2 pm ET. This could be because there is a scheduled 30-year

Former US President Jimmy Carter died yesterday. The funeral has now been announced for January 9. Historically, US markets close for a national day of mourning on the day of a former President’s funeral and I expect that will be the case this time around. Federal non-essential employees are also given the day off and

It’s an ugly day for risk assets and bitcoin is no exception. What I think is happening is that many in markets are anticipating profit taking in high-flying assets early in the new year as that pushes capital gains taxes out until 2026. There is a front-run of that selling in markets now, including in

Austrian National Bank governor and ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann spoke in an interview with the Kurier newspaper published on Saturday. “It could be the case that we take more time before lowering rates again,” “It’s true, some energy prices are trending upwards again. But there are also other scenarios for how inflation could

Prior was -2.7 Production +3.9 vs -0.9 prior New orders -0.9 vs -11.9 prior Capex +11.2 vs +7.8 prior Employment +0.3 vs +4.9 prior Outlook +8.0 vs +5.8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +2.0% (revised to +1.8%) Details Home sales index 79.0 versus 77.4 last month (revised to 77.3) Sales 6.9% vs 5.4% year on year prior This is the fourth-consecutive month of increases and buyers give up waiting for lower rates. In December though, US 30-year fixed rates rose above 7% and that’s been a

Prior +2.4% HICP +2.8% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The concern for the ECB is that core annual inflation here is seen ticking higher to 2.6%, up from 2.4% in November. Here’s a look at the inflation trend in Spain: The disinflation path looks to have stalled as we close out the 2024 year.

The new week is underway and it will be dissected on Wednesday by New Years Day holiday on January 1. The US stock market will have a full day on New Years Eve (closing at 4 PM ET), but the US bond market will close early at 2 PM ET to start the festivities. Some

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bearish Currents Still Underway and Predicting Key Price Movements In this bitcoin analysis on the Binance BTCUSDT 4 hourly chart on Binance, we delve into the current bearish trend in Bitcoin prices and explore the conditions necessary for a bullish reversal. This update focuses on the significant pitchfork patterns and key price

Barring a miracle turnaround in the final two trading days of the month, gold will finish lower in December. That’s unusual because there has been a strong seasonal tailwind for gold in December forever and it’s risen in the month in every year since 2016. Now, it’s not hard to understand why gold is lower

FOMC 2025: The Key Players and Hidden Signals Every Investor Needs to Know As the Federal Reserve prepares for a critical year of decision-making, the 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lineup has the potential to shape markets in significant ways. A mix of fresh perspectives and steady voices raises both questions and opportunities for

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1889 People’s Bank of China Governor says room for lower rate Japan final manufacturing PMI (December 2024 ): 49.6 (prior 49.0) China’s efforts to prop up its flagging stock market has made yuan a casualty Holzmann says European Central Bank could consider waiting longer before its

The EURUSD is trading the key technical levels to start the trading week. The initial move in the early European session saw the price moved down to test its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the hourly chart above). Buyers leaned against the level and pushed the price back higher. Recall, the 100 hour

PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng statement: monetary policy adjustments should be intensified average deposit reserve ratio for Chinese banks is around 6.6% compared to central banks in other major economies, this level still leaves room for adjustment The PBOC won’t ber trimming rates too much, too soon as a falling yuan is still a concern for

Happy Monday in a stunted week that will be the final one of 2024 and the first one of 2025. It’s the final full trading day of the year and it’s been quiet so far in FX. That’s not the case in equities where S&P 500 futures are down nearly 1%. It’s all about positioning

If US imposes tariffs, China could look to send cheap goods to the EU That may see China exporting deflation to Europe Wage demands of 7% are not aligned with return to 2% inflation target It’s all conjecture at this point but the damage to the economic outlook is already evident in the market pricing.

Manufacturing PMI from Japan, final for December 2024 improves from the flash reading, and from November to 49.6, still in contraction: preliminary (flash report is here) was 49.4 prior 49.0 From the report (in brief): Manufacturing Economy: Japan’s manufacturing economy showed signs of stabilisation towards the end of 2024, with softer declines in new orders

Let’s get straight into it, shall we? Here is a look at the voting committee for the current year that has gone by: Jerome Powell (Fed chair) John Williams (Fed vice chair, New York Fed) Michael Barr (Board of Governors) Michelle Bowman (Board of Governors) Lisa Cook (Board of Governors) Philip Jefferson (Board of Governors)

An interesting item from Bloomberg (gated) discussing how Chinese authorities have propped up the country’s equity markets but slammed the yuan as an unintended consequence: record dividend payouts (“dividend bonanza”) lead to currency outflows Between January and March, interim dividends from Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies are expected to hit a record level for the first

Well, you definitely won’t hear central bankers admitting or acknowledging it. However, you’ll most certainly hear plenty of whispers or even loud conversations in the background on this. The UK looks to be leading the stagflation charge but there are other major economies also staring down the same path. Germany and Australia are among the

Bitcoin Analysis: Navigating the Key Levels and Patterns As the year comes to a close, Bitcoin’s price action presents a mixed narrative, leaning bearish in the near term. Traders and investors are closely monitoring critical levels and chart patterns to anticipate Bitcoin’s next significant move. Below, we analyze the key features shaping the current outlook.

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for Guidance 🌍🔍📊 The EURUSD pair remains a focal point for traders and investors due to its volatility and importance in global markets. In this EURUSD technical analysis, we explore crucial support and resistance levels, as well as trends shaping the currency pair’s behavior in the near term.

Adam had the news earlier: Former US President Jimmy Carter dies US President Biden has announced that Thursday 9 January 2025 will be the US National Day of Mourning for Carter: non-essential Federal workers are given the day off and stock and bond markets are closed Link to the full proclamation is above. This article

It’s another patchy week of holidays, official and unofficial. The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas. Liquidity and interest is going to remain thin. It’ll pick up a little from January 2 and 3 but will approach normal from the 6th. I’ll be posting this

Domestic sight deposits CHF 436.4 bn vs CHF 448.0 bn prior It’s an interesting drop in sight deposits, with the headline number being the lowest since 2015. The swing could also be impacted by thinner liquidity conditions but also perhaps after the tiered remuneration changes by the SNB this month. After the 50 bps rate

Former US President Jimmy Carter died today, he was 100. Chip Carter, a son of the former president, said his father died about 3:40 p.m. on Sunday in his Plains home. Carter had been in declining health for some time. He was US President from January 20, 1977 – January 20, 1981. Typically, a sitting

Jibun Bank Final PMI from Japan for December is due today. Flash Manufacturing December: 49.4 (in contraction for 6 straight months.) November Final 49.2 Background to this is that Japan’s manufacturing sector experienced a consistent contraction over the previous three months, as indicated by the Jibun Bank / S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI):

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

China’s central government has urged local authorities to provide financial aid to people facing high living costs, particularly in the lead-up to the New Year and Lunar New Year festivals. Municipalities that can afford it are encouraged to offer subsidies, temporarily reduce prices, and link social assistance to price levels, according to the Ministry of

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Of course, its even more precarious than usual with all the holidays around the pace. It’ll be another patchy holiday week to

SPX outlook: critical levels to watch for traders and investors The SPX price index is navigating a crucial technical landscape, with several key levels and indicators shaping its trajectory. A closer look reveals resistance at 6,200, support near the anchored VWAP, and the unclosed Trump Gap at 5,780, offering actionable insights for traders and in

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen fired off a warning shot to Congress today, flagging a critical debt ceiling timeline that could rattle markets in early 2025. Debt ceiling reinstates Jan 2 Default risk window: Jan 14-23 Treasury to deploy ‘extraordinary measures’ if needed The timing adds another layer of complexity to an already heated political environment

Closing changes: S&P 500 -1.1% Nasdaq Comp -1.5% DJIA -0.8% Russell 2000 -1.6% Toronto TSX Comp -0.2% On the week: S&P 500 +0.7% Nasdaq Comp +0.8% DJIA +0.4% Russell 2000 +0.1% Toronto TSX Comp +0.8% We get two more days of trading before the scoreboard resets at zero. This article was written by Adam Button

CFD broker Investizo has announced an improvement in trading conditions: now the company’s clients can trade cryptocurrencies with 1:200 leverage. This is one of the first offerings of its kind in the industry. The updated leverage is available for more than 30 popular cryptocurrency pairs such as BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, LTCUSDT, XRPUSDT and others. This offering

WTI crude oil settled 98-cents higher today to $70.43. Oil traded up to $88 early last year but has been treading water near $70 for months. The opening level of the year was $71.65 so it’s on track for a small decline this year. Today’s EIA US oil inventory data: Crude -4237K vs -1867K expected

The USDJPY moved lower in the US session but after getting within 11 pips of the rising 100 hour MA. THe price has since bounced back to 157.84 currently as the buyers remain in firm control. THe last time the price tested the 100 hour MA was back on December 17 adn Deceember 18 before

The major US stock indices are opening lower with the Nasdaq index trading down near 1% on the day. A snapshot of the market 5 minutes into the open : Dow industrial average -200.03 points or 0.45% at 43125.77 S&P -43.20 points or -0.72% at 5994.39 Nasdaq -200.68 points or -1.00% at 19819.68 Russell 2000

The major US stock indices are continuing their slide with NASDAQ now down -2.10% at 19,600. S&P is down -1.40% at 5952.00 Dow industrial average is down -0.98% at 42900.29 The Russell 2000 is down -40 24 points or -1.85% at 2239.20 US yields have started to move back to the lower after the sharp

The European major indices are closing higher on the day. That runs counter to the moves seen in the US stock indices which are down sharply as money rebalances out of US and into Europe (at least today). The final numbers are showing: German DAX, +0.68% France’s CAC, +1.0% UK’s FTSE 100, +0.16% Spain’s Ibex,

The EURUSD moved higher in the early European market and in doing so, extended above the falling 200-hour MA (green line currently at 1.04286). The high price reached 1.04433 which was short of the highs from earlier this week and the high from last Friday near 1.0448. Those highs stalled ahead of a swing area

At the end of the day, policymakers can and will spin the narrative to however they see fit with their decision. And with the BOJ these days, the leaked reports leading up to their meeting seem to be the more important part of the narrative. The latest inflation numbers from Japan’s capital here today might

Tech and Consumer Cyclicals Lead Today’s Market Declines Today’s market landscape saw notable declines in tech and consumer cyclical sectors, with significant drops across major stocks. Investors appear cautious as uncertainties loom across various sectors. 📉 Technology Sector: Under Significant Pressure Across the technology sector, widespread declines were observed. Key players such as Microsoft (MSFT)

Industrial profit Year to Date (YTD) -4.7% y/y prior -4.3% For November alone a -7.3% y/y slump prior -10% *** China’s industrial sector has experienced fluctuating profitability throughout 2024, influenced by various economic challenges and policy interventions, including but not limited to: insufficient effective demand declining industrial product prices (PPI deflation) October month alone 2024:

Natural gas prices have been a recent winner and there is talk of longer-range forecasts showing a particularly-cold January in the northeastern United States. Today’s number is something of a disappointment though after last week’s 125 bcf draw. As for oil, it’s holding up today despite the ugly mood in markets and the EIA weekly

Jobless rate steady at 2.5% expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job to applicant ratio steady also at 1.25% expectedd 1.25, prior 1.25% Nothing to see here … Inflation data out at the same time: Tokyo area December inflation data: Headline 3.0% y/y (expected 2.9%) Still to come, the BoJ! Economic calendar in Asia 27 December 2024

CNBC carried an interview with oil market analyst Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights. Video is here. In summary: Limited Influence of U.S. Leadership: Despite former President Trump’s pro-drilling rhetoric, U.S. oil producers prioritize technological advancements over expanding drilling activities. U.S. Production Trends: U.S. oil production grew by approximately 300,000 barrels per day in 2024,

It’s a bit of a tricky one this time around with gold prices rising by over 27% already in 2024. Things have cooled off in November and December so far but that arguably owes much to the US election result, which in turn has also impacted the Fed outlook somewhat for next year. A surging

US equities battled back after a slump at the open yesterday and they will have to do it again today. S&P 500 futures are down 33 points, or 0.6% in the premarket. Today is the third-last trading day of the year but and it’s notable that settlement changes now make Monday as the final day

TGIF in what is a holiday-shortened week. What is moving the markets. In Europe there was no economic data out of Europe today and traders are reluctantly back from the Christmas and Boxing day holiday. In the US there will be some modest data out at 8:30 AM ET with: Good trade balance for November,

Prior month wholesale inventories +0.1% revised from 0.2% Wholesale Inventories November Level: Estimated at $901.6 billion, a 0.2% decrease from October and a 0.9% increase from November 2023. October Revision: Growth revised down from +0.2% to +0.1%. Retail Inventories November Level: Estimated at $827.5 billion, a 0.3% increase from October and a 7.2% increase from

Prior month -99.08B Goods trade deficit -102.86B vs -$100.6B estimate A few months ago, the deficit increased due to port strikes coming into the Christmas season. The move higher this month, may have been influenced by the expected Trump tariffs. Pres. Elect Trump will be focused on bringing more manufacturing back to the US with

AltimaCRM by Intivion Technologies, one of the most innovative Forex CRM solutions on the market, will be attending the upcoming iFX EXPO Dubai 2025. Held on January 14-16 at the Dubai World Trade Centre, AltimaCRM will be showcasing its cutting-edge management tools to a global audience of brokers, prop firms, trading platform providers, and more.

This in reference to the data from China earlier: China November Industrial profit Year to Date (YTD) -4.7% y/y (prior -4.3%) The move month alone m/m was -7.3%, extending its decline to a fourth straight month. But, October was -10% ,so a slower pace of fall in November. The data comes via China’s National Bureau

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts a 5.7% year-on-year growth in industrial output for the January to December period. Which seems optimistic based on the data today and prior for 2024: China’s industrial profits decline four straight months, but at a slower rate More: is committed to ensuring steady growth in the industrial

The AUDUSD moved higher in the early Asian trading after the Christmas hiatus and the move higher took the price above the 100 hour MA (blu e line currently at 0.6239). The break gave buyers some hope in the short term, but the high price ended up stalling at the underside of the broken trend

WTI crude oil settled lower by 48-cents after trading higher earlier in the day. There are some positive signs that China will stimulate demand in the year ahead and that should improve supply/demand balances but the oil market is in a wait-and-see mode. Technically, the range trade continues. This article was written by Adam Button

At this stage last year, we were talking about how the Fed might cut rates by around six times in 2024. This time around, we’re talking about how they might not even get to two rate cuts in 2025. As thing stand, traders are pricing in just ~36 bps of rate cuts for next year

China Construction News with the report, citing a work conference held by the housing regulator on Tuesday and Wednesday. In summary from the report, overblown adjectives included … Efforts to stabilize and prevent further declines in China’s real estate market will continue into 2025. Plans to reform the commercial housing sales system vigorously. Expansion of

It’s a patchy week of holidays, official and unofficial. Today definitely falls into the unofficial holiday category. I won’t be around much (but that’s just between you and me, K?) The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas. If you would like to share trade ideas,

Bank of Japan ‘Summary of Opinions’, in brief I. Economic and Financial Developments Japan’s Economy: Moderate recovery with some weakness; expected to grow above potential rate due to a virtuous income-to-spending cycle. Wage and price dynamics show positive signs but need further examination, especially in next year’s wage negotiations. Consumer attitudes toward price increases remain

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced the revision on Thursday, following the completion of the fifth National Economic Census: Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 was raised by 3.4 trillion yuan to 129.4 trillion (US$17.73 trillion) said the change would have little impact on growth this year China’s National Economic Census is a comprehensive

Japan Retail sales Solid beats both m/m and y/y. USD/JPY update, around 157.80, down from highs just over 158.00 during US trade. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

During US time on Thursday USD/JPY rose above 158.00 and to its highest level since the middle of July this year. Since then we’ve had inflation data from Japan (Tokyo) and the ‘Summary’ of the Bank of Japan December meeting, which combined have seen USD/JPY drible a little lower. Inflation in Tokyo picked up speed

China’s MIIT predicts a 5.7% y/y growth in industrial output for the January to December China’s industrial profits decline four straight months, but at a slower rate Japan finance minister Kato – alarmed by FX moves, driven by speculators South Korea says it has a North Korean soldier in custody China November Industrial profit Year

Its all go in Japan today, with a long list of releases scheduled for the morning at 8.30 am Japan time (2330 GMT, 1830 US Eastern time) and 8.50 am (2350 GMT, 1850 US Eastern time): As background to the two releases of note: Tokyo area inflation data: National-level CPI data for this month will

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate. CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range. A significantly stronger or weaker rate

Japan finance minister Kato Decline to comment on the possibility of meeting the government’s target of achieving a primary budget surplus by next fiscal year.Recently seeing one-sided, sharp FX moves.Important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Alarmed over FX moves, including those driven by speculators.Will take appropriate action against excessive moves. Those

Japan Industrial Production for November 2024, preliminary reading -2.3% m/m expected -3.4%, prior 2.8% -2.8% y/y prior 1.4% Japanese manufacturers expect dec output to be +2.1% m/m (vs. -0.5% expected previously) and January +1.3% m/m ** Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines.

South Korea’s intelligence agency says it has an injured North Korean soldier in custody. No further details as yet. As I said above, tensions on the Korean peninsula will, at the margin, be a yen positive (flight to safety/liquidity … so USD positive also). The moves used to be intense on such news that has

The World Bank raised its 2024 China growth forecast to 4.9%, from 4.8% previously. In summary from the Bank’s report: Economic Growth Performance: China’s economic growth was robust at 4.8% during the first three quarters of 2024. Growth has slowed since Q2 2024 due to subdued domestic demand and a prolonged property sector downturn. 2024

Tokyo area inflation for December 2024. Headline 3.0% y/y expected 2.9%, prior 2.6% Core (excluding fresh food) +2.4% expected 2.5%, prior 2.2% Core-core (excluding food and energy) 2.4% y/y prior 2.2% *** I’d think this will keep the Bank of Japan on track for a January interest rate hike. Ueda spoke earlier this week: BOJ

4.532% is the high-yield at the auction This is the final auction of the year and it’s a strong one. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The EUR/USD is edging higher, reaching a new daily high while breaking above the 50% midpoint of the trading range since the September 2022 low, which stands at 1.04053 (see daily chart). On the hourly chart, the pair has been oscillating above and below this midpoint over the past five trading days. Following the FOMC

While UK traders celebrate Boxing Day, the GBP/USD is under pressure, falling to new session lows and extending its decline further away from the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average. The pair opened the post-Christmas trading day just below the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.25365, and remained below it during the Asian Pacific session. As the

It’s a “quiet” news day today—the day after Christmas (and Boxing Day in many parts of the world). On this “all is calm” day, I wanted to share something you might not know: I’ve written a book that complements my technical analysis work on Forexlive.com. Inspired by Sara Eisen’s “shameless” (her words!) promotion of her

The USD/JPY is trading at a new high for the day, reaching last week’s peak of 157.918—the highest level since July 18. The day began near session lows at 157.122 but saw an acceleration during the early U.S. session, coinciding with the opening of the U.S. debt market. U.S. Treasury yields are also moving higher,

The US stocks are opening lower, but not as bad as the pre-market levels implied by the futures. A snapshot of the market is showing: Dow -115 point Friday points or -0.27% at 43181.45 S&P -15.0 points or -0.25% at 6025.04 NASDAQ -48.01 points or -0.24% at 19983.11. The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading down

Prior week 220K Initial jobless claims 219K vs 224k estimate 4-week moving average 226.5K vs 225.5K estimate Prior week continuing claims 1.874M revised to 1.864M Continuing claims 1.910M vs 1.880M estimate 4- week moving average of continuing claims 1.878M vs 1.880M last week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview: Tech and Healthcare Show Resilience Today’s stock market heatmap reveals stability in the technology and healthcare sectors amidst broader market fluctuations. While major tech players like Microsoft (MSFT) remain relatively unchanged at -0.05%, Apple (AAPL) edges upward by 0.29%. In healthcare, Lilly (LLY) stays almost flat at -0.09%, reflecting sector stability. Semiconductors and

Boxing Day in Europe and Canada, and the hangover day after the Christmas Day holiday in the US. Nevertheless, the US stock market and bond markets will be open all day. The USD is higher vs the major currencies: EUR +0.05% JPY +0.15% GBP +0.27% CHF +0.13% CAD +0.22% AUD +0.21% NZD +0.21% US stocks

This according to the NPC Standing Committee, as announced yesterday. For now, the agenda is said to encompass “reviewing the government work report, and examining the report on the implementation of the annual plan on national economic and social development for 2024 and the draft plan on national economic and social development for 2025”. Adding

S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% with Nasdaq futures down 0.5% and Dow futures down 0.4% as well. Trading conditions are mired by thin liquidity as we are still in the holiday period for markets. Europe is out for the day and so will Canada, leaving only US markets to open later. But during a

Bitcoin Price Update and Forecast: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) appears poised to cross the $100,000 mark again as current price action aligns with bullish technical indicators on the daily chart. Here’s a quick breakdown: Donchian Channel Basis Acting as a Magnet:The basis of the Donchian Channel sits at $100,252, which is currently acting as a price magnet.

Expects Japan to further progress towards 2% inflation in stable, sustainable manner Uncertainty surrounding economy, price outlook is high Must avoid returning to deflation or low inflation environment As Japan transitions towards sustained achievement of 2% inflation, BOJ will support the economy by keeping rates below the neutral level But as economic, price developments continue

In other China news: China has passed a law introducing a value added tax. Will take effect on January 1 2026 according to Xinhua …. another year away Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 4 China’s National People’s Congress will be held March 5, 2025 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

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The shortened US equity market session on Christmas Eve is often a formality but Santa Claus delivered this year. The 0.7% rally yesterday in the S&P 500 was followed with 0.8% today and the post-Fed rout has now been largely erased. S&P 500 +1.1% Nasdaq Comp +1.4% (led by +6% for TSLA) Russell 2000 +0.8%

I posted a recap of this meeting as a bit of a preview of this. Its here: the BOJ adopted a cautious stance, indicating that any future rate hikes would be contingent upon increased confidence in economic and price forecasts A couple of weeks after the meeting the Bank published its ‘summary’, acknowledging it was

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 growth comes in unchanged at 3.1%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on December 24, unchanged from December 20 after rounding. After both the advance durable manufacturing report

UBS analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its cautious stance, holding off on further rate cuts until core inflation declines further. The bank forecasts that core inflation will slow to below 2.5% by the time of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could provide the Fed with the

Goldman Sachs from earlier this week (Bloomberg TV interview) on Chinese equities. Analysts at GS say stocks in China are supported on a dip in price next year. Chinese stocks face limited downside in 2025. GS cite: market has factored in trade tension risks already domestic stimulus measures offer a buffer against any further selloff

📈 Semiconductor Surge: Avago Shines Bright The semiconductor sector is experiencing a strong upswing today, with Avago (AVGO) soaring by 2.99%. This boost contributes to a positive outlook within the sector, as other major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) show modest gains of 0.19% and 0.95%, respectively. The presence of green across major

Prior month -14 Manufacturing Activity: Remained in contractionary territory; composite index rose to -10 in December (from -14 in November). Est. -10 Component Indexes: Shipments: -11 vs -12 last month Employment: -8 vs -10 last month New Orders: Improved to -11 vs -19 last month Local Business Conditions: Index improved to 0 (from -14); future

Prior month -5.9 Philly Fed non-manufacturing index for December -6. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stocks are trading higher in early US trading: Dow Industrial Average: 42,923.11, up 16.16 points (+0.04%) S&P index: 5,987.45, up 13.38 points (+0.22%) Nasdaq index: 19,840.36, up 75.47 points (+0.38%) Rusell 2000 index: 2,236.7892, down 0.6471 points (-0.03%) In specific stock news: Apple has traded at a new record high at $257.00

Christmas Eve in the US will include a shorten day in the US. The stocks will close early at 1 PM, the US bond market will close at 2 PM. The USD is mixed vs the major currencies: EUR +0.12% JPY -0.04% GBP-0.15% CHF +0.18% CAD +0.32% AUD +0.27% NZD +0.23% US stocks are mixed

UBS has reiterated its recommendation for investors to capitalize on further dollar strength by diversifying into other currencies. Despite recent gains in the US dollar, driven by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and US government policy, the bank maintains that the dollar remains overvalued. While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the greenback

With China, it’s always hard to tell. But the big question is, are things really different for China this time around as compared to all their promises over the last few years? They’ve definitely stepped up the rhetoric but I want to say that actions speak louder than words at the end of the day.

Ministry of Finance statement, in brief: Will step up fiscal spending, accelerate spending in 2025 China plans to intensify efforts to mitigate risks in key sectors, according to the Ministry of Finance. China will expand the issuance of government bonds to bolster economic stability. China aims to strengthen international financial collaboration. China is committed to

Let’s dive straight into it with the first meeting date and what market players are pricing in for that. Fed: 29 January (~91% probability of no change, ~9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut) ECB: 30 January (~99% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, ~1% probability of no change) BOJ: 24 January (~54%

For the longest of time now, the pair has been caught within a 1,000 pips range over the last eight years. And that’s just the extremes in certain years. Most of the time, the pair has nestled within a much tighter range during this period. But with the over 4% decline this year, there is

The stock market will close at 1pm ET (1800 GMT) while the bond market will close at 2pm ET (1900 GMT) later today. It’s the festive period after all and holiday thin liquidity just means it is tough to make sense of price movements during this time. For those interested, here’s how the S&P 500

MUFG Bank see potential for the euro to parity against the US dollar in the next 3 months UBS halved its expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, to 50bp only (from 100) Japan Finance Minister Kato verbal intervention effort trying to support the yen PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at

The bond market got a reprieve on Friday with the cooler PCE report. You would think today’s soft consumer confidence data would also help bring down yields but that’s not the case. Instead, US 30-year bond yields are up 6.3 bps to 4.78%, which is the highest since May. The late-April high of 4.85% is

US December consumer confidence 104.7 vs 113.3 expected US November new home sales +5.9% vs -14.8% prior US November durable goods orders -1.1% vs -0.4% expected Canada GDP for October 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected Canada November PPI +2.2% vs +1.1% y/y prior Markets: Gold down $10 to $2610 Bitcoin down 3% to $93,800 US

This is via Tortsten Sløk, Apollo Chief Economist (Apollo is a US asset management firm). Also, from the firm’s 2025 outlook, some reasoning (in very brief) why Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rates could rise: It is too early to assess the impact of potential new policies following Donald Trump’s election as US president. That

MUFG Bank expects the euro to weaken against the dollar, potentially approaching parity in the first quarter of 2025, before stabilizing and staging a moderate recovery in the second half of the year. The forecast reflects the persistence of macroeconomic divergence early in the year, a dynamic the bank sees as a key driver of

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate. CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range. A significantly stronger or weaker rate

There are a couple of meeting minutes scheduled for the Asia session: for the Bank of Japan meeting on October 30 and 31 for the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on December 9 and 10 Bank of Japan: At its meeting on October 30-31, 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its ultra-low interest rates,

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has a third, unofficial, mandate. Its financial stability. This is in addition to their oft-stated official mandates of price stability (in a nutshell, controlling the inflation rate) and full employment. Indeed from the RBA website: Maintaining the stability of the financial system is a longstanding responsibility of the Reserve

The post on the Bank of Japan October meeting minutes is here: BoJ Oct minutes: If inflation trends align with expectations, gradual rate hikes possible Adding a little more detail now, these Headlines via Reuters: A few members said must scrutinize the impact of past interest rate hikes on the economy and prices when deciding

I posted a recap of this meeting as a bit of a preview of this. Its here: RBA’s (slightly) softened tone Headlines via Reuters: Policy needed to be “sufficiently restrictive” until confident on inflation. The board had minimal tolerance for inflation remaining above target for too long. The board had gained confidence on inflation since

Japan Finance Minister Kato with some typical verbal intervention efforts: Says it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals Recently seeing one-sided, sharp FX moves Concerned about recent FX moves Will continue to coordinate with overseas authorities on forex policies Will take appropriate action against excessive moves Kato’s comments on

It’s a patchy week of holidays, official and unofficial. The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas. If you would like to share trade ideas, this is the thread for you! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Bank of Canada meeting minutes were released. Some of the highlights Bank of Canada decision to cut rates by 50 BPS on Dec 11 was a close call – minutes of Governing Council meeting. Members discussed arguments both for cutting by 25 BPS and 50 BPS. Those in favor of a 50 BPS cut

Domestic sight deposits CHF 448.0 bn vs CHF 448.2 bn prior Swiss sight deposits are little changed in the past week, holding at levels seen in the past few months still. That doesn’t suggest any major signs of intervention on the part of the SNB at least. Here’s the trend: This article was written by

This was released earlier: Prior was +0.8% Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.7% vs -0.1% prior Ex transport -0.1% vs +0.3% The core orders number is the important one and it showed a nice rebound is November. The problem I’m seeing is that industrial company stocks have been plunging lately. Here’s Nucor, which is the

Prior was +1.1% Monthly PPI +0.6% vs +1.2% prior Raw materials price index +2.0% vs -2.8% y/y prior Raw materials price index -0.5% vs +3.8% m/m prior (revised to -2.6%) The falling Canadian dollar is a big reason why this report as been climbing in the past two months as most commodities are priced in

Qatar warns it will halt gas supplies to Europe if fined under EU due diligence law HSBC still sees Fed rate cuts ahead, another 75bp next year. Higher stocks & USD also. China hints at further measures to support the recovery of its property market. US PCE data – “core inflation didn’t print low enough

Bitcoin is struggling today and threatening a re-test of Friday’s spike low of $92,115. A break of that level would crack something of a double bottom and could clear the way for a deeper retracement, particularly if $90,000 also gives way. Bitcoin has declined by nearly 14% since hitting a record of $108,379 on December

The highly anticipated Amega App was met with universal acclaim upon its release on Android devices just a few months ago. Now, iOS users can also benefit from the unparalleled functionality and accessibility of the Amega App, as it was recently released on the App Store. The Amega App is a groundbreaking tool full of