Prior -0.2% Looking at the breakdown, there was an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.1%), energy (+1.6%), capital goods (+0.1%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). The price for durable consumer goods was stable on the month. If you strip out energy prices though, the prices for the total industry would’ve only reflected a 0.1% […]

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The pair traded to a low of 0.9210 earlier, before catching a bounce to 0.9310-20 levels currently. The jump in the past two hours is also perhaps why the euro is more resilient today, with EUR/USD up 0.5% to 1.0960 now. That is being helped by a rebound in EUR/CHF after meeting its lowest levels

The pair has just hit the lows for the day at 143.55, threatening an over 2% drop today alone already. This comes as traders are sticking with the flight to safety as markets have gone into full blown panic mode. It’s a bloodbath in the equities space with the Nikkei down over 7% currently, with

China Caixin Services PMI rises to 52.1 in July, beats expectations of 51.4 Services PMI increases to 52.1 from 51.2 in JuneNew business growth accelerates to solid paceEmployment growth fastest in nearly a yearPrices charged unchanged despite rising input costsComposite PMI dips to 51.2 from 52.8, 9-month lowManufacturing sector facing greater pressure than services The

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs. 52.4 prelim and 52.1 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.8 vs. 52.7 prelim and 52.3 prior. Key findings: Demand for UK services rises at fastest pace since May 2023. Business confidence rebounds to five-month high. Price pressures remain strong. Comment: Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “With the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headline via Reuters: South Korean Finance Ministry said it will take measures to respond to heightened market volatility if needed As an example of how global market volatility is hitting South Korea, here an hourly USD/KRW chart: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The global rout has hit crypto as well. ETH/USD is now just above where to was to begin 2024: ps. ETH above 2300 now as I post This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -7.3 Investor morale slumped further in August, with the headline reading dropping to its lowest since January now. The expectations index also fell from 1.5 in July to -8.8 in August, highlighting worries over the economy in the next six months. Sentix noted that investors were concerned about geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the

In terms of daily points fall, this is a record decline for the Nikkei. This even exceeds the drop from Black Monday in 1987. Talk about pain. The thing when you view the chart above is that there are plenty of margin calls surely amid the declines in the last three days. And that is

We went from pricing in six rate cuts in November last year, to delaying the first rate cut from March to May. And then to pricing in just one rate cut by the time May arrived. We then bounced between that and two rate cuts over the last few months, before suddenly going back to

Wow, what a brutal day we are having in the markets. On the data front, we don’t have much on the agenda as we will just get the final European and UK Services PMI readings in the European session, and the US ISM Services PMI in the American session. I don’t think the market will

Bank of Japan June meeting minutes A few members said import prices rising due to recent yen fall, creating upside inflation riskOne member said cost-push inflation could heighten underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations, wage increasesOne member said pass-through of higher labour costs accelerating, could appear in consumer inflationOne member said BOJ

Prior 56.8Composite PMI 53.4Prior 55.8 It’s not a major data release but it won’t help to calm market fears on the day. The euro area economy is seen stuttering to start Q3 and that could well pressure the ECB into cutting in September. For now, traders have fully priced that in with the odds of

The index tracks the prices of 17 of New Zealand’s major commodity exports, including dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 0.2% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index fell 1.9% in July. As part of the report are comments from ANZ on shipping prices: Global

The Nikkei 225 futures have now been suspended amid triggering the circuit breaker. Talk about carnage. In just three days, the Nikkei itself has erased its gains for the entire year-to-date. It was less than four weeks ago that the index hit a record high above 42,000. Pain. The selling has been quite relentless not

The ‘sidecar’ is a rule that lets the Korea Exchange (KRX, the operator of SK’s bourse) halt futures trading of equities during periods of extreme market volatility. Triggered when the benchmark KOSPI futures contract moves more than 5% from the previous close. The KRX limits program trading for five minutes as a ‘circuit breaker’ Rushing

USD/JPY fell to just under 146.00 earlier on the gap lower for US equity indexes: US equity findex futures have opened sharply lower for the new week Tit recovered but has since lost it all and is now lower, circa 145.83 or so as I update. There is no fresh news nor data. None is

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi Won’t comment on daily share movesClosely watching market moves with a sense of urgencyShare prices determined by various factors including economic situation, corporate activity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The ‘Sahm Rule’ was developed by noted economist Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. There is an explanation of it below (scroll down). Sahm was interviewed (Fortune) on it after the July employment report (Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 2 Aug: Bond market cuts rate for Fed after weak jobs data) triggered it:

Yen strength, equities weakness. Last week’s play book continuing. Mix in escalating tensions in the Middle East: Sec State Blinken said on Sunday that Iran & Hezbollah attack on Israel could start Monday TV show later Monday? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Which is the tail, which is the dog? It varies. Futures open for the week: US equity index futures have opened sharply lower for the new week USD/JPY marked lower, a tic under 146.00 seen via EBS: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US National Hurricane Center has issued the warning: Tropical Storm Debby expected to become a hurricane tonight and make landfall in the Florida big bend area on MondayWill bring a major flood threat to the southeastern US Oil traders will want to watch developments for the Gulf. For those likely to be impacted, take

The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is Monday and Tuesday (August 5 and 6). The basically unanimous expectation is for a hold for the cash rate, a ‘hawkish’ hold. The RBA policy announcement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, August 6, 2024: 0430 GMT, and 0030 US Eastern timethis will be accompanied by

Ugly. Nasdaq futures, NQ, -1.28%, down more than 260 pointsS&P 500 futures, ES, -0.85%, down more than 50 pointsOil, CL, up more than 1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A stock index circuit breaker is a mechanism used in stock markets to temporarily halt trading when an index experiences a significant drop in value. The purpose of this system is to prevent panic selling and allow time for investors to process information and make rational decisions. circuit breaker triggered for Topixalso for government bond

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the June meeting. The Bank of Japan meeting in June produced the commitment to trim back JGB buying from the following, July, meeting: Will decide on specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at next policy meeting.BOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, with a larger 50 basis point cut possible if the August employment report is as weak as July’s. has increased its estimated probability of a US recession within the next year to 25%, up from 15%, GS

Forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from Westpac in New Zealand. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ISM Services PMI, Fed’s SLOOS.Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Policy Decision, Swiss Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales, Eurozone Retail Sales, Canada Services PMI. Wednesday: New Zealand Labour Market report, BoC Minutes.Thursday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, US Jobless Claims.Friday: China CPI, Canada Labour Market report.

This is a good spot for a bounce in many things. There are many times when the strong hands in the market would step in here; the economy isn’t that bad, there’s no financial crisis and companies are still making money. Yes, the Fed is behind the curve but they have more ammunition than they’ve

How reflexive is the economy to the stock market?What will be the main earnings releases for the week starting August 5Goolsbee: If inflation and the job market continue cool, the Fed should cutKamala Harris crosses threshold to become Democratic nomineeBaker Hughes US oil rig count unchangedFed’s Goolsbee: The job of a central bank is to

In this video, I take a technical look at the major currency pairs vs the USD. As a bonus, I also take a look at the 2 major stock indices as traders prepare for the new week. Including (along with the time on the video): EURUSD 0:15USDJPY 2:15GBPUSD 3:38USDCHF 5:25USDCAD 6:37AUDUSD 7:47NZDUSD 9:18S&P 10:21NASDAQ 11:39

The commodity currencies are in an interesting spot right now. The US dollar is falling on a few fronts because the market is re-thinking the path of Fed funds. But they’re re-thinking it due to slower growth and inflation. Rates are also relatively high in the commodity block, currently at: 4.50% in Canada4.35% in Australia5.50%

The Nasdaq is down 10.4% from the high just three weeks ago but when you zoom out, it’s more of a minor correction after an incredible rally. If stocks can steady here, this episode will be quickly forgotten. The problem is that we could see more selling and here is the case for it: AI

It was a wild week in stock markets as a huge post-FOMC jump turned into a crash lower. The Nasdaq is now down 10% from the highs, matching the mark for a technical correction. On the day: S&P 500 -1.8%Nasdaq -2.4%DJIA -1.5%Russell 2000 -3.6% On the week: S&P 500 -2.1%Nasdaq -3.3%DJIA -2.1%Russell 2000 -6.7% If

Goolsbee continues to do the media rounds: “It’s one month’s number, it’s a negative number,” Austan Goolsbee told Sirius XM, later adding: “This negative number fits into the through-line of — hey, better be careful, if you’re going to be as restrictive as we’ve been.” If inflation and the job market continue cool, the Fed

Admittedly, this week was the biggest of the quarter with 4 of 7 “Magnificent 7” announcing including Meta, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. How did those stocks do this week? 2 up and 2 down, with Amazon the worst performer as they missed on revenues (first miss in over 2 year). They also see less robust

PBOC adviser Huang Yiping has made a break from the usual restrained tone at the upper echelons of Chinese authority, with a call for bolder stimulus and a lower inflation target Urges more fiscal stimulus and consumption boostWarns of “low inflation trap” risk for Chinese economySuggests lowering CPI target to 2%-3% from current 3%Rare public

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

The July employment report is due from the US on Friday 2 August 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT Adam had a preview posted earlier: Preview: July non-farm payrolls lands in a worried market You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’

The problem with gold is that it’s a good asset to hold with things are moderately bad in markets. But when things get really bad, it gets sucked into the financial vortex. That’s what happened early in covid and that’s what is happening now (to a lesser extent). It was trading as high as $2477

Oil rigs unchanged at 482Natural gas rigs -3 to 98 Overlooked in all the drama in markets this week was the EIA report massively revising lower US oil production. It’s barely risen in the past year now, highlighting some risks going forward to supply. That said, the market is totally focused on demand at the

The GBPUSD is higher on the day in sympathy with the dollar selling after the weaker US jobs report. However, the move to the upside did find willing sellers near a swing area target area between 1.2644 and 1.2667. That area did stall earlier rallies this week ahead of the interest cut by the BOE

Overview of Sector Performance The latest stock market heatmap reveals a day marked by significant volatility across various sectors, particularly within the technology and consumer cyclical segments. Today’s trading sees tech giants Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) experiencing sharp declines of 5.48% and 3.66% respectively, underscoring broader concerns within the semiconductor industry. In contrast, Apple

It’s not a surprise but Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for President. She has played her cards right during the downfall of Biden and didn’t face any real challenges. She crossed the threshold for delegate supporters this week so the convention will be a coronation. PredictIt has Harris slightly favored over Trump right

Here’s a snapshot of things as a whole: Eurostoxx -1.6%Germany DAX -1.5%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE -0.6%S&P 500 futures -1.1%Nasdaq futures -1.8%Dow futures -0.8%Russell 2000 futures -2.2% The selling is pretty much broad-based as seen above, so it’s not quite just limited to tech. In FX, the dollar is slightly weaker across the board today

Info via Reuters Polling on the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, showing that the RBA is expected to keep cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday, August 6 No rate cuts seen until Q1 2025 despite inflation easing32 out of 33 economists predict no change at the August meetingMarket pricing shows 55% chance of a

Japan finance minister Suzuki Will analyze impact of forex volatility on economy, respond appropriatelyWill continue to closely monitor forex movementsStock prices are determined in the market based on various factors such as economic conditionsClosely watching stock movements with a sense of urgencyDesirable for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Suzuki is going to

Prior was +206 (revised to +179K) Details of the July 2024 jobs report: Two-month net revision -29K vs -111K priorUnemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.1% expected (unrounded 4.252%)Prior unemployment rate 4.1%Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.6% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.8% vs 7.4% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/mAverage hourly earnings

The weaker US data has the AUDUSD and NZDUSD moving higher (lower USD). For the AUDUSD it has moved in between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 0.6527 and 0.6549. The price needs to get outside of that range to either increase the bullish bias or increase the bearish bias. For the NZDUSD,

The USDCHF has moved sharply lower today on the back of the weaker US jobs report, sharply lower yields, and lower stocks. The CHF tends to be a safe-haven currency in times of trouble, and that is what we are seeing in the fair today as it races away from its 100 hour moving average.

A key line from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday was this: “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond.” Today, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% from 4.1% and non-farm payrolls growth of 144K disappointed the 175K economist consensus.

Economist at Citigroup are now forecasting a 50 basis point cut from the Fed in September and another one in November. That’s a big call and it’s likely adding to the downward pressure on Treasury yields and in stock markets. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economists at Goldman Sachs now see the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at all three remaining meetings this year. Previously they forecast two cuts. “Today’s report indicates that the softening in labor market conditions has now gone beyond the amount that was welcome,” Goldman writes. Additionally, economists there see a likelihood of a

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday following an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI as the markets went into risk-off. Overall, we had goldilocks data releases until now with an economy that’s been slowing but still growing. So, one bad report might not be a gamechanger, but the markets are increasingly sensitive to bad

Jeanna Smialek from the New York Times is out with some comments from the Fed’s Barkin, who is also set to speak on TV shortly. “More significant reductions typically would be associated with an economy that feels like it’s deteriorating rapidly. And again, 114,000 jobs, while not as good as we’ve been running, on a

If we stay restrictive for too long, we have to think about the employment mandateIf unemployment is going to go up higher than 4.1%, that’s the kind of thing the Fed has to respond toThe through-line of the data doesn’t change based on one month’s numberWe have been seeing the improvement we’ve wanted on inflationWe

Australian Q2 PPI +1.0% q/q prior +0.9% +4.8% y/y prior +4.3% Lucky this isn’t CPI, a rise to 4.8% y/y from 4.3% would be a worry for the Reserve Bank of Australia. And hopefully it doesn’t get passed on to consumers ’cause then it could well pressure CPI higher. — The Producer Price Index (PPI)

A major deleveraging event is intensifying as bonds are aggressively bought and equities are hammered. The message from the market is that the Fed is behind the curve in an economy that’s sputtering. Citigroup was just out with a call for two 50 bps cuts to start the cycle while the market is pricing in

The major indices are opening lower with the NASDAQ leading the way. Yesterday the: S&P fell -1.37% Dow industrial average fell -1.21%. NASDAQ -2.3% Russell 2000 index fell -3.03% A snapshot of the major indices shows:. Dow Industrial Average average is down -511.4-1.27% at 39850S&P index is down -89.0-1.64% at 5356NASDAQ index is down -450

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has recently highlighted his belief that inflation is still problematic but his economics team disagrees. They’ve now joined Citigroup in calling for back-to-back 50 basis points cuts in September and November to kick off the rate-cutting cycle. “So we now think the FOMC cuts by 50bp at both the September and

The Fed blackout is over and (for once) the market wants to hear what everyone has to say. The game has changed since Wednesday with the market now contemplating half-point cuts starting in September. The Fed’s Goolsbee (dove) and Barkin (middle of the road) are expect on business TV at the top of the hour.

The Nasdaq index opened lower, rallied up and briefly moved above the 100-day MA at 16876.83 Just above that sits at the 50% of the move up from the May low to the July high. That level came in at 16946.92. THe high price today reached 16920.63 between the two levels. Buyers turned to sellers.

There isn’t anything too significant on the board for today but there are some to be wary about. The first one is for USD/CAD at 1.3900, where the expiries are decent in size. It coincides with key resistance around the 2022 and 2023 highs, so the expiries could help to keep a lid on things

Bad news is bad news in the equity market, particularly small caps. S&P 500 futures are down 1.5% ahead of the open while Nasdaq futures are down 2.2% and the Russell 2000 is down 3%. There was time when hopes for Fed cuts could buoy the market but it increasingly looks like the Fed is

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: Stock prices are determined in the market based on various factors such as economic conditions and corporate activitiesWill continue to pay close attention to markets with sense of urgencyImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsClosely watching fx movesWon’t comment on forex levels USD/JPY update, swings are not

The decline in the US stock market and the fall in yield has the USDJPY moving below are as well. However, it has now reached a key swing area target. That level comes between 145.90 and 146.514. The low price just reached 146.53. The area will test the seller’s conviction. Can they get below the

A storm is tracking across Cuba over the next 24 hours but then it will quickly turn north and track along the Florida west coast. “The system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore,” the NHC says. “The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with

Inflation data from South Korea for July 2024: CPI +0.3% m/m expected +0.25%, prior -0.2% CPI +2.6% y/y expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% The ‘last mile’ thing is still threatening. This slight rise from the previous month is, well, a slight rise, but if its repeated in other economies (looking at you USA) it could complicate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The heavy selloff came quite suddenly in US trading yesterday and that is carrying over to sentiment today as well. In Asia, Japanese stocks are facing a rout with the Nikkei down 4.5% and Topix down 4.7% currently. As Eamonn said, absolute carnage. The Hang Seng index is also down 2% at the break as

The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has fallen. This is not due to the market thinking the Fed won’t cut, but because the chance of a 50-basis point cut has entered the conversation in a big way. Deteriorating economic data is driving speculation of

Prior was -0.5Factory orders ex transportation +0.1 vs +0.5% priorShipments +0.5% Revisions to durable goods orders June durable goods -6.7% versus a -6.6% preliminary. Prior month +0.1%Durable goods ex transportation +0.4% versus +0.5% preliminaryDurable goods non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.9% versus +1.0% preliminary The factory orders number is a slight miss but the change is

USD/JPY is down 217 pips on the day to 147.22. It fell as low as 147.03 in the aftermath of the non-farm payrolls report compared to 149.00 just before the data. It’s the lowest since March and erases a huge runup in the pair that caused considerable angst for Japanese policymakers. The reversal in fortunes

US 10-year yields fell as low as 3.79% in the aftermath of non-farm payrolls but have since seen a retracement to 3.86%. The bottom was just above the December low of 3.78%, a time that also saw considerable angst about a looming recession and rapid Fed rate cuts. The bond market has been at the

The People’s Bank of China uses its black-box “Counter-Cyclical Factor” to prop up its currency, when needed. Like now, its been doing so for many, many months. I posted some info on what we know about (not much!) the CCF yesterday: forthright explanation is the CCF allows the PBOC to manipulate the yuan — People’s

The EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is weaker ahead of the US jobs report.Yields continue its fall as it does the Fed’s work for them now as data keeps coming in weaker and weaker. Stocks continue its slide as the biggest consumer retailer

Fundamental Overview The JPY eventually increased the gains following the BoJ rate hike as Governor Ueda delivered some hawkish comments during the press conference. On Wednesday, we had the FOMC rate decision and as expected it was a dovish one. Fed Chair Powell hinted to a September rate cut and didn’t even close the door

Discover time-tested trading strategies for beginners to get you started on trading bull and bear markets with confidence The post Trading Strategies for Beginners (The Complete Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The USD is lower. Yields are lower with the 2-year down -28 basis points. The 10 year yield is down -18 basis points. Stocks are moving lower from already depressed levels after the weaker US jobs report. S&P index is down -101 points. Dow Industrial Average was -575 points. NASDAQ index -476 point. The market

The USD is lower after the US jobs report which came in weaker than expectations with non-farm payroll rising just 114K versus 175K estimate. The unemployment rate pushed up to 4.3% from 4.1% estimate and 4.1% last month. Average earnings were weaker at 0.2% versus 0.3%. Finally, the average workweek fell from 34.2 hours from

Headlines: Preview: July non-farm payrolls lands in a worried marketWhat are the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Equities stay pressured so far in European morning tradeA couple of August trends to watch out for in FXSwitzerland July CPI +1.3% vs +1.3% y/y expectedSwitzerland July manufacturing PMI 43.5 vs 43.8 expected Markets: EUR leads, USD

Happy jobs Friday. In the bigger picture, this isn’t a pivotal jobs report for the economy. There’s some slowing baked in and the Fed will get another non-farm payrolls report before the September FOMC decision. What’s changed the game is the market — specifically the bond market — shooting higher in a pure flight to

Major currencies are keeping steadier so far today, with light changes overall. Even USD/JPY is “only” seeing a roughly 100 pips range, keeping flattish now near 149.40. The pair continues to see volatile swings in the last few sessions, not least with 10-year yields in the US falling below 4%. The bigger story is the

Nikkei 225 and Topix are down circa 5% from yesterday’s close. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday following an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI as the markets went into risk-off. Overall, we had goldilocks data releases until now with an economy that’s been slowing but still growing. So, one bad report might not be a gamechanger, but the markets are increasingly sensitive to bad

The July employment report is due from the US on Friday 02 August 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT Adam had a preview posted earlier: Preview: July non-farm payrolls lands in a worried market You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’

Prior 43.9 Swiss manufacturing conditions continue to suffer and overall, it points to some weakness in the economy with the services sector also seeing a print below 50 in July. Here is the breakdown for the manufacturing report: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday following an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI as the markets went into risk-off. Overall, we had goldilocks data releases until now with an economy that’s been slowing but still growing. So, one bad report might not be a gamechanger, but the markets are increasingly sensitive to bad

Let’s get straight to it. On paper, August is the worst month for AUD/USD and pretty much the aussie in general. Over the last 20 years, the pair has fallen in 16 out of the last 20 August months. It’s almost the polar opposite of what February typically is for AUD/USD. If you look at

German DAX futures -0.8%French CAC 40 futures -0.8%UK FTSE futures -0.4% After salvaging some pride towards the end of July, European indices are being caught in another downdraft again now to start August trading. France’s CAC 40 index looks poised now to fall back towards its lowest levels since November last year. The overall mood

Today all eyes will be on the US NFP report. There is some fear in the markets following yesterday’s ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI, so if we get an ugly NFP report we might see widespread risk-off. The market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the end of the year with chances of a

The US National Hurricane Center warns of a tropical depression likely to form over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida this weekend. Something for oil & product traders to be aware of: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US non-farm payrolls data – the key ranges for estimates to watchJapan Industry Minister Saito says economic fundamentals aren’t badUS equity index futures continue their slide, NQ has lost over 1% in evening tradeMore from Japan finance minister Suzuki: Need conviction Japan won’t go back to deflationJapan finance minister Suzuki closely watching stock prices, FX

I think there can be something of a sigh of relief on this as Hezbollah launching ‘dozens’ of rockets isn’t exactly new. That said, you have to keep a close eye on what’s coming from Iran so there is no sleeping easy on Middle East trades. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD is now extending higher and in the process is moving above the highs from earlier this week at 1.38652. Earlier today, the pair went to the edge of the abyss near the low of the swing area between 1.3784 and 1.3803. The inability to push below that area both yesterday and today, gave

The data is here from earlier in the session: South Korean July CPI rises more than expected, and more than in June The Bank of Korea have made a statement, not worried: Slight rise in inflation was in line with earlier projectionInflation to continue easing from August Will make quarterly inflation projection from august given

Eurostoxx -1.2%Germany DAX -1.0%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -1.6% S&P 500 futures are at the lows for the day seen down 1.1%, Nasdaq futures down 1.8%, and Dow futures down 0.7%. Meanwhile, bond yields look poised for another down day with 10-year Treasury yields lower by around 3 bps to

UBS says to shake off short term volatility and not miss out on rebounds: Market sentiment and positioning had become extended — making a pullback more likely. But market fundamentals remain positive, and we continue to expect the S&P 500 to recover and end the year higher at 5,900 UBS still like prospects for long-term

Justin brought us up to speed on the latest from the Bank of Japan: a supporting document to their rate hike yesterday and reaffirms the current policy path they are on. Via a snippet from Commerzbank, analysts there also see the Bank of Japan adopting a stance that favours further interest-rate rises, and is thus

Prior +1.3%Core CPI +1.1% y/yPrior +1.1% Slight delay in the release by the source. This matches with the readings from June, so that will keep the status quo for the SNB. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The latest JPM Global Manufacturing PMI was published on Thursday, it dipped below 50 in July, signaling a slump back into contraction J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July from 50.8 in JuneFirst contraction in 2024 so far, ending 6-month expansion streakOutput growth slowed significantly, new orders declined for first time since JanuaryUS

It wasn’t just four weeks ago that the Nikkei scaled to fresh record highs above 42,000 and yet here we are. What a rout. This takes the drop in the last two days to over 8% already. And the daily drop today is the largest since March 2020, when the Covid pandemic struck. The mood

Intel earnings missed on the top and bottom line. EPS $0.02 vs $0.10Revenues $12.83 billion versus $12.94 billion expected Suspend dividend starting in a Q4 of 2024 Announces a $10 billion cost reduction plan. Company is announcing a 15% headcount reduction Shares after the close are trading down -10.12% at $26.10 This article was written

Global equites being slammed. ES and NQ off heavily in US Thursday evening trade on Globex. Nasdaq: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Industry Minister Saito adding some verbal support to equities, tor at least trying to: Says economic fundamentals aren’t bad, when asked about sharp fall in stock marketSays strong movement seen in investment and wage hike continuing This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eyes are on Israel’s northern border and whether we will see Hezbollah launch attacks. Israel’s military says warning sirens are sounding in northern Israel. The Middle East factor is certainly part of the risk aversion trade today but my guess is that it’s a small part. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian June home loans value +1.3% m/m expected +0.1%, prior -1.7% Owner occupied housing finance +0.5% m/m prior -2.0% Investor housing finance +2.7% m/m prior -1.3% AUD/USD is a little higher after this data and the PPI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Important to keep proper debt management through close dialogue with marketsReduction in BOJ’s JGB purchases would increase need for financial institutions to buy JGBs, raising importance of dialogue with marketsCorrection in yen’s weakness could push down import prices, tame consumer pricesNeed conviction that Japan won’t go back to deflation before announcing

The market has gone from euphoria to fear in a heartbeat. There was a ‘buy everything’ mode yesterday as the market pushed to price in more Fed rate cuts due to a weakening economy. Now, the market is starting to sense too much economic weakness is coming and that the Fed is behind the curve.

Amazon shares are down 7.9% after earnings. Amazon (AMZN) reported its Q2 2023 earnings after the bell on Thursday and they’re a mixed bag: EPS: $1.26 vs $1.04 expectedRevenue: $147.98B vs $148.78B expectedAWS net sales: $26.28B vs $25.98B expected Key takeaways: Strong bottom line performance with EPS beating estimates by $0.22Revenue slightly missed expectations, coming

Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) . Shares are trading unchanged EPS: 0.53 exp. 0.52 – BEATRevenue: 1.24 billion exp. 1.24 billion – MET Block Inc (SQ) : Shares are trading up 4.51% EPS: 0.93 exp. 0.85 – BEATRevenue: 6.16 billion exp. 6.28 billion – MISSED Roku Inc (ROKU) : SHares are trading up 5.61% Revenue: 968

The most recent congressional trading form filed shows that US congresswoman Nancy Pelosi bought more $NVDA shares and sold some $MSFT shares. bought 10,000 shares worth of Nvidiasold 5,000 shares of Microsoft You know what to do. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. And Happy Friday all! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The old adage is that if the US catches a cold, Canada gets the flu. The market is certainly sending warning signals about the US economy as yields plunge but USD/CAD hasn’t made a decisive move yet. But that moment might not be far off as the pair threatens a trio of highs from the

US July ISM manufacturing index 46.8 vs 48.8 expectedUS initial jobless claims 249K vs 236K estimateJuly US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.6 vs 49.5 prelimAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 estimate to 2.5% vs 2.8% priorBank of England Bailey: Would caution against you that BOE would cut rates continuallyBOE Pill: We are not committing to further interest

Apple earnings: EPS $1.40 versus $1.34 expected: BEAT Revenues $85.78 billion versus 84.44B expected: BEAT Other details: China Revenue: actual $14.73 billion (-3% on a constant currency basis) Expected to be $15.2 billion, down 3.1% from $15.7 billion last year. MISSiPhone Actual $39.3 billion. Sales are expected to be $38.9 billion, down 1.8% year over

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower with the small-cap Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ index leading the way a lower. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average felt -496.00 points or -1.21% at 40346.78S&P index fell -75.69 points or -1.37% at 5446.60NASDAQ index fell -405.25 points or -2.30% at 17194.15

The data today are not expected to move major FX much upon release. Keep an eye on USD/JPY, if anyone in Asia so much as looks at it sideways, it’ll swing wildly. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +175K (LBBW at the low at +70K, Bank of American at the high at +225K)June +206K vs +190K expectedPrivate +148K estimate vs +136K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% priorParticipation rate: 62.6% priorPrior underemployment U6 7.4%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% y/y vs +3.9% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3%

The NASDAQ index is now down -520 points or -2.94% at 17081.20. The low price just reached 17075.97. There is a swing area between 16996.39 and 17057.34. That area is home to different swing highs and lows going back to June. Move below that area and traders will next target the 50% midpoint of the

The Fed funds market is now pricing in a 13.5% chance of a 50 basis point Fed cut in September. Many market participants are focused on Powell’s comments about the labor market. “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond,” he

More from BOEs Bailey with Sky News: Would caution against view that BOE would cut rates continually at successive meetings from here This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s still very, very early in the Q3 GDP forecasting game so I wouldn’t get excited about the moves in this indicator for at least a month. “After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.6% Even though it may not feel like it, European indices still managed to squeeze in a round of gains in July trading last month. That includes the CAC 40 index, which ended higher by 0.7%, despite all of its travails. For

The USDCHF is trading back to the low from earlier today at 0.87277. That level corresponds to the low from March 8 at 0.8728 (see red circle 3) and a swing high going back to January 23 at the same level. (see red circle 1). So far support is holding. The topside resistance now is

Fundamental Overview Gold got a boost recently on renewed tensions in the Middle East. In fact, on Tuesday, Israel struck Beirut (Lebanon) targeting the Hezbollah commander that launched a recent missile attack against Israel. Just some hours later, Israel managed to kill the top Hamas leader in Teheran (Iran). Moreover, we had the FOMC rate

Treasury yields made a decisive move lower yesterday in a sign that the market is seeing a break lower in inflation, and perhaps growth. However that came with a flurry of moves into month-end along with the turmoil in the Middle East that could be sending a false signal. Today we put the focus back

Prelim was 49.5Prior was 51.6Full report Details: New orders decline for first time in 3 monthsOutput growth slows to marginal paceEmployment rises at softest rate since JanuarySelling price inflation eases to one-year lowThe ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

The AUDUSD has been moving up and down, with the pair moving up to test the 200 hour MA. However, seller leaned early against that level and the price has since stepped back down to low for the day. On the way lower, the price broken back below the 100-hour MA at 0.65378. A catalyst?

Final Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs. 42.6 expected and 43.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 43.2 (Jun: 43.5). 3-month low. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 42.5 (Jun: 45.1). 5-month low. Decline in input prices eases amid pressure from shipping costs. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia,

S&P Global / Judo Bank Australian Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 prior 47.2, preliminary 47.4 From the report, key findings: Manufacturing output decline accelerates amid falling new orders Export orders contract at fastest pace in four years Job shedding unfolds at quickest rate since June 2020 In summary: Output and new orders are at cyclical

MUFG revises its outlook on the Bank of Japan, now anticipating two additional rate hikes within the fiscal year. This shift comes in response to the BoJ’s recent hawkish policy update, which has accelerated yen gains and could push USD/JPY towards the mid-140s. Key Points: Revised BoJ Rate Outlook: Two Additional Hikes: MUFG now forecasts

OPEC is in a bit of a tizzy with oil prices falling at the peak of summer driving season. The JMMC monitoring committee met today and reiterated that the planned gradual phase-out of the voluntary cuts could be paused or reversed if necessary. The next planned JMMC meeting isn’t until Oct 2. WTI crude is

Prior month -0.1% revised to -0.4%Construction spending for June -0.3% versus 0.2% expected Total Construction: June 2024 construction spending: $2,148.4 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate)Decrease from May 2024: -0.3% Increase from June 2023 YoY: +6.2% First six months of 2024 spending: $1,034.8 billionIncrease from first six months of 2023: 8.6%. The same 6-month period in

I did a double take on that result, back into contraction again after a good June. A huge miss on expectations. This is its first contraction in 9 months and points to embedded trouble in the Chinese economy. This PMI has been outperforming the official PMI and offered a sliver of hope, but now both

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 came in at 2.5% from 2.8% previously. It is early in the quarter, so the growth will evolve. However, the first move is lower: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on August

The dollar is still reeling from the more dovish Fed yesterday, especially Powell’s press conference. September looks to be a done deal barring any major surprises in the economy in the next six weeks. USD/JPY in particular is feeling the pinch after the BOJ hiked rates yesterday, with the pair settling below 150.00 currently. The

Headlines: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 5.00% in knife-edge callBOE governor Bailey: This was a finely balanced decisionBailey Q&A: We will make our judgements based on evidence from meeting to meetingUSD/JPY catches a bounce back above 150.00 for now10-year Treasury yields eye 4% mark next following post-Fed dropNasdaq Technical Analysis – Road

The market isn’t holding back. Bonds are rampaging higher and the Fed funds futures market is sensing deeper and quicker cuts. September Fed funds now price in a 16% chance of a 50 bps cut and cuts are nearly fully priced in at the next five meetings, running through March 2025. Pricing for June 2025

Yesterday we had disappointing PMIs from China: China July 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (expected 49.4) China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.

BOEs Pill: We are not committing to further interest rate cutsThere will be bumps in the road on inflation ahead Comments are consistent from comments from BOEs Bailey. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks open with gains in the major indices. Meta Platforms beat and gave positive guidance as well. Shares are trading up over 9% at the open. A snapshot of the market is currently showing: Dow Industrial Average average is trading up 227.75 points or 0.54% at 41065.58S&P index is up 23.16 points or 0.42%

The BoE statement is due at 1100 GMT / 0700 US Eastern time. A 25bp rate cut is the consensus estimate. Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks at 1130 GMT / 0730 US Eastern time. Communications from the Bak have been light, but the cut is expected to win by a small majority of votes

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the carry trades impacted

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could help to draw in price action with the 200-hour moving average seen nearby at 1.0847 currently. But if anything else, it should keep things more contained at least until

The figures are from Japan’s Ministry of Finance for the June 27-July 29. You’ll recall highs for USD/JPY over 161.75 during that period. I’m not sure its correct to say ‘spent’ … given USD/JPY is now under 150 I’d say ‘shrewd investment’ 😉 What a load of malarkey it all was. Why didn’t the Bank

That is to be expected as the bloc is set to continue with the current policy stance before unwinding some of the production cuts later in October. Carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

o Families have spoken to loved ones after release from Russia16 prisoners have been released. 4 American, 5 Germans and 7 Russian citizens held wrongly Allies made bold and brace decisions as part of this dealsAllies matter.Russian political prisoners included in the deal stood up for democracy and human rights. Other details: Russia frees Wall

This is 15 straight months of contraction. Prior was 49.3Canadian manufacturing sector deteriorates at fastest pace in 7 monthsBusiness confidence hits lowest level since May 2020Input cost inflation remains solid but below trendSupply chain delays worsen, especially for sea freightNew orders fell sharply, with exports down the most since May 2020 Commenting on the latest

Today’s Market Overview The stock market today presents a varied landscape with noticeable leadership from the healthcare and technology sectors. Let’s delve into the sectors, big movers, and the macro trends influencing investor sentiment and strategies. Healthcare Sector Takes the Lead Marked by Eli Lilly’s impressive jump of 3.75%, the healthcare sector shines brightly in

Prior 52.3 A sign of change for the Spanish manufacturing sector? Perhaps. Output was higher on the month but orders declined, leading to just a marginal growth in July. But at least employment conditions are holding up well and the outlook remains fairly optimistic. HCOB notes that: “The wind in Spain’s manufacturing sector appears to

Prior month 48.5Prices paid 52.9 versus 52.1 priorEmployment 43.4 versus 49.3 last monthNew orders 47.4 versus 49.3 last monthProduction 45.9 versus 48.5 last monthSupplier deliveries 52.6 versus 49.8 last monthInventories 44.5 versus 45.4 last month.Backlog of orders 41.7 versus 41.7 last monthNew export orders 49.0 versus 48.8 last monthImports 48.6 versus 48.5 last month This

The market is getting a dose of bad (weak) economic data today. In the past when inflation was higher, bad was good as traders saw it as a slowing of the economy and with it inflation. WIth inflation more tame / lower, and the Fed more focused on both jobs AND inflation, the deluge of

In particular, EUR/USD is starting to invite a technical break to the downside now: The pair is down 0.4% to 1.0785 currently, threatening a break under 1.0800 and more notably its 100-day moving average (red line) of 1.0792. The drop today sees price now touch fresh lows in four weeks. Besides that, we’ve also seen

Prior 45.8 The revision to the headline reading sees it unchanged for the month of July, even as the output index declines to a seven-month low. Employment conditions also experienced a decline and there were further drops in purchasing activity and inventories, while business confidence weakened to a four-month low. HCOB notes that: “The widely

The dips in the USDCAD continue to hold support in the 1.3784 to 1.3803 area, but overhead resistance near the April high at 1.38448 is now an upside hurdle to get to and through. If the support is broken, I would expect the buyers to turn to sellers as they give up on the upside

Prior was +4.0% (revised to +3.8%)Productivity +2.3% vs +1.7% expectedPrior productivity +0.2% (revised to +0.4%) These numbers are so hard to calculate. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There were worries about too much of a good thing yesterday as everything shot higher. Those worries are looking well-founded as markets turn lower in a big way. The Nasdaq is down 1% and the Russell 2000 down 3% as early gains reverse. Treasury yields are down 13-8 bps led by the front end. Today’s

Services price inflation and domestic inflation pressures remain elevatedThere might be a slight rise in services price inflation in August, before easing for the rest of the yearWatching services prices very carefullyShould not adjust our course with every data surprise that comes inThere is still a question on whether persistent component of inflation can return

It was a tough start to the new month in Europe, similar to heavy selling in Japan. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.3%German DAX +2.3%UK FTSE 100 +1.1%French CAC +2.2%Italy MIB -2.6%Spain IBEX -2.0% BMW shares were beaten up today after earnings and German stocks are now testing the July lows. This article was written by

The losses are coming in fast in the last one hour, with GBP/USD falling from 1.2845 to a low of 1.2790 on the day. This is a move tied mostly to the pound, with EUR/GBP also now up 0.4% to 0.8450. It’s all about the BOE decision later in the day and this seems to

Prior +0.2% House price growth continues to push up slightly after the rebound since May with annual house prices now seen up 2.1% compared to the same month a year ago. That said, overall housing market activity remains on the mend as higher borrowing costs are still weighing. This article was written by Justin Low

Prior 45.4 It is a marginal revision lower as the French manufacturing sector slumped further in July. Of note, production, new orders and employment all decreased at faster rates. Besides that, input cost inflation accelerated further to its highest in a year-and-a-half. HCOB notes that: “French manufacturing isn’t recovering soon. In July, the headline HCOB

July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent

Labor market is ‘strong but not overheated’ and about where it was pre-pandemicLonger-term inflation expectations appear to be well anchoredUnemployment rate remains lowLabor market has cooled, inflation has declined and risks have moved into better balanceAttentive to both sides of dual mandateQ2 inflation readings have added to confidence on inflationNeed greater confidence on inflationWe will

The Kickstart video for August 1 take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD moved lower in sympathy with the GBPUSD before the BOE rate decision. THe BOE did cut rates by 25 basis points by the smallest of margins (5 for, and 4 against

As the North American session begins, the CHF is a stronger and the GBP is the weakest. The Bank of England (BOE) became the latest central bank to cut rates after reducing its bank rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% in a decision marked by close voting, with the vote split at 4-0-5. The

Slightly better than expected trade surplus. AUD/USD is around 0.6545 and not a lot changed on the session. USD/JPY is now under 149.00! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July, which is roughly a little over 9% higher compared to the same month a year ago. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOE will decide appropriate degree of restrictiveness at each meetingNot giving any view on the path of rates to come (when asked about a “one and done”)We will go from meeting to meeting, making judgement based on evidenceDoes not want to comment on market curve on rate cuts It doesn’t look like he will want

The FOMC statement didn’t offer up too much but the minor changes are still a small step towards making a change on rates. The most notable thing was highlighting “risks to both sides of the dual mandate”. It doesn’t sound exactly dovish but it is consistent with the Fed’s motives of starting to change things

Reuters with the headline, citing sources familiar with the matter. That said, no policy change is still expected from the meeting so the reason for the delay is not believed to be anything untoward. From earlier: OPEC+ reportedly to stick with output policy in latest meeting today This article was written by Justin Low at

Prior week 235Kinitial jobless claims 249K versus 236K estimate. Highest level since last year this time4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 238K vs 235.50K last week.Continuing claims 1.877M versus 1.856M estimate. Prior week continuing jobless claims 1.851M revised to 1.844M4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.857M vs 1.852M last week WIth both the initial

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up and

Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaks on ThursdayMarubeni CFO says expects a limited impact from the Bank of Japan rate hikeChina’s State Planner Vice Head says will actively expand domestic demandJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says important for FX to more in stable mannerBank of England meet Thursday, rate cut expected, but a ‘hawkish’

Marubeni CFO: Expect limited impact on financing costs from BOJ’s rate hikeThe yen’s depreciation turning to appreciation due to monetary policies in Japan and US was as we had expectedWeaker yen against US Dollar and Australian dollar in April-June period contributed about 9 bln yen to profit USD/JPY update, another volatile day: Marubeni Corporation is

Prior 5.25%Bank rate vote 4-0-5 vs 4-0-5 expected (Pill, Mann, Haskel, Greene dissented to keep rates on hold)Decision was “finely balanced”Domestic inflationary persistence is expected to fade away over the next few yearsThere is a risk that inflationary pressures from second-round effects will be more enduring in the medium-termNeed to be careful not to cut

Prior 6.4% The jobless rate in the euro area ticks a little higher again at the end of Q2, matching the figure back in March and in the same month a year ago. As a whole, labour market conditions are still holding up but there have been tentative signs of softness creeping in. This article

Analysts at JPM were tipping a September rate cut, and still do. They expect cuts each quarter to follow. But … they add that there is a risk of a rate cut at every meeting “if the unemployment situation continues to deteriorate”. —- Sheesh, how bad do they expect it to get??? This article was

Oil surged in the hours following the news yesterday: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in TehranHamas says that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is a dangerous escalation Eyes are on the Middle East in the wake of this news, and oil gained ground. Separately, a report from Bank of America says: “Oil prices have

There are no notable releases in the European session as we just get the Final readings of the PMIs. The focus will be mainly on the BoE Policy Decision where the expectations are skewed for a rate cut. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims, the Canadian Manufacturing PMI and the US

Underlying inflation is expected to increase graduallyFirms’ behavior has shifted more toward raising wages and prices, as per the spring wage negotiationsBaseline scenario is that virtuous cycle between wages and prices is projected to keep intensifyingBut there remain uncertainties regarding this outlookNeed to carefully monitor factors such as firms’ wage and price-setting behaviourMoves to reflect

The Bank of England meeting precedes Pill: Bank of England meet Thursday, rate cut expected, but a ‘hawkish’ cut Pill is speaking from 1615 GMT / 1215 US Eastern time: takes part in an online Q&A about the central bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report, released earlier in the day This article was written by Eamonn

Manufacturing PMI 47.4 vs. 46.1 expected and 45.7 prior. Key findings: Softer contractions recorded for new orders and production. Strongest input price inflation since late 2022. Lowest confidence levels this year so far. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Italian industry is on a

Scanning for news – not seeing anything of note. Is this politics related? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The March low at 4.038% is holding somewhat for now. But looking at things, it’s all about the 4% mark from a psychological perspective when it comes to 10-year yields. That especially after the Fed more or less sealed the deal for a September rate cut yesterday. The move lower over the last few months

The big week of earnings continues today with Meta reporting after the bell. We will also get results from Arm, Qualcomm, Carvana, Lam Research, Western Digital and more. Tomorrow after the close we get Amazon, Apple and Intel. Tech stocks rallied massively today including: NVDA +12.5%AVGO +11.3%TSLA +4%META +2.3% Microsoft also trimmed a 7% loss

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs. 51.8 expected and 50.9 prior. Key findings: Production growth fastest since February 2022. Input price inflation rises to 18-month high. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK manufacturing has started the second half of 2024 on an encouragingly solid footing. July saw growth of production and new

FOMC interest rate decision: Rates unchanged but statement highlights dual risksFull statement from July 2024 FOMC rate decisionPowell: We have made no decisions about September but broad sense is we’re moving closerPowell opening statement: Labor market is ‘strong but not overheated’ADP July employment 122K vs 150K expectedUS Q2 employment cost index +0.9% vs +1.0% expectedCanada

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.3% European indices ended more mixed though but the general mood in equities is a better one after the Wall Street rally. That owed much to tech stocks though, as the Dow was only up by 0.2% to close out July trading. But so far, US futures are also

Headline via Reuters: Ukraine’s government invokes moratorium law, will suspend foreign debt payments starting August 1 – resolution This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s State Planner Vice Head: There is ‘sufficient’ room for counter-cyclical policy adjustmentsChina has conditions, ability and confidence to achieve full-year growth targetWill actively expand domestic demand, putting consumption boost in a more striking positionwill promote effective investment – I think the reference to “counter-cyclical policy adjustments” is about the economy as a whole, Keynesian

The info comes from noted China analyst Michael Pettis via twitter: Henan province announced its consolidation plans on Sunday, naming 25 institutions to be merged into a provincial-level rural commercial bank. And goes on: This of course was inevitable. That its taken so long is a negative. That its finally happening is a positive. This

Gundlach spoke in an interview with US media, CNBC. Headlines via Reuters: Says a lot of room for the fed to cut short term interest rates Fed should have cut todayThink we have a 150 bp of cuts coming, certainly in a year from nowSays still believe 2 yr, 3 yr, 5 yr Treasuries are

For some context, OPEC+ will be holding an online JMMC meeting later today at 1000 GMT. According to the report, no changes to the current plan is likely. That means the bloc will continue its current deal and only start unwinding some of the output cuts starting from October. This article was written by Justin

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Qualcomm reported strong earnings and Meta boosted its capex estimate this year. Meta followed that up by saying it expects ‘significant’ capex growth in 2025. The gold rush mentality in the AI race is unrelenting. We heard the same from Microsoft yesterday and that’s eased fears of a pullback in chip spending and led to

The volatility swings are continuing in the pair and the latest move here is part of that. Treasury yields remain on the softer side with 10-year yields at 4.058%, so this isn’t really tied to that. Looking at the chart, the bounce does come after price tested the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing

The USDJPY is moving back toward its low for the day as yields move lower. The 2-year is now down -7.3 basis points at 4.286%. The 10 year yield is down -6.9 basis points at 4.072%. Looking at the 4- hour chart, the move lower has price testing the high of a swing area at

The tensions in the Middle East have been escalating significantly in the past week. And that is seeing the situation involving Israel and Hamas moving into unprecedented territory. In response, the geopolitical uncertainty finally caught up with markets yesterday. Oil had a standout day in particular, with WTI crude rising by over 4%. That helped

Terms of trade data from Australia for Q2 2024 Import Prices +1.0% q/q expected -0.7%, prior -1.8% Export Prices -5.9% q/q expected -5.3%, prior -2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Iran has more leaks than the Bank of Japan. I’m not sure how they expect to get anything done when they’re letting people get assassinated in a military compound and leaking military orders to the New York Times. That said, this might be another one of those ‘face saving’ drills where they lob some drones

The Bank of Japan hiked yesterday: ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen surges as BOJ hikes policy rate to 0.25% And the Federal Reserve gave hints a rate cut was coming in September: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: What a day, it had everything USD/JPY tumbled (it did so prior to the BoJ on the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fed says it’s attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate, a change from previous text that said it was highly attentive to inflation risksIn recent moths there has been ‘some’ further progress to 2% inflation goal vs ‘modest’ further progress previouslySays inflation remains ‘somewhat elevated’Economy continues to expand at ‘solid’ pace, job gains

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: Japan appoints former top fx diplomat Masato Kanda to special advisor to cabinetKanda tasked to advise Japan PM Kishida on international financial trends Hayashi adds: Won’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Closely watching fx moves thoroughly Meanwhile USD/JPY is around 149.20, after

There were 68.4 basis points of cuts priced in for the Fed this year ahead of the FOMC decision. That’s risen to 72.4 bps since, likely in response to Powell saying that he could envisions anything from ‘several’ rate cuts this year to zero. Pricing for June 2025 has also moved up to 157 bps

What a day in equity markets. Nvidia climbed 14% (and is up further after hours) in the largest one-day gain in market cap in history. Beyond that, it was a huge day in general and particularly for chipmakers after Microsoft said it would spend more in capex next year than this year (and Meta said

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korean finance minister Says will swiftly act according to contingency plans to stabilize financial markets if neededMonitoring Middle East tensions, US electionSays will focus on risk management related to household debt, project financeWill devise more liquidity support measures for online commerce platforms if needed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I find it hard to believe that it’s truly possible to keep chips out of China. Reports out of Russia suggest you can still get anything there despite extremely harsh sanctions. The opportunities to smuggle and trans-ship are too high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

June 12July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strongmoderated, and the unemployment rate has remainedmoved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated.

S&P Global / Jibun Bank Japanese Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 comes in at 49.1 first time under 50 (and into contraction) in 3 monthsprior 50.0, preliminary 49.2 In summary: There was a significant reduction in new orders, leading to a sharp decline in production levels.Input price inflation reached its highest since April 2023, driven

The Wall Street Journal is gated, but here is the link of you can access it: Fed Clears Path for September Interest Rate Cut Officials held rates steady, but made an important pivot by highlighting a more equal focus on employment and inflation goals The gist of it is: While Powell and his colleagues didn’t

The NASDAQ index is up over 520 points. The price is currently up 520 points or 3.04% at 17667. The NASDAQ is above its 50-hour moving average and also stretching above the 38.2% retracement of the last move lower at 17647.85. On the topside, the 100-hour moving average and 50% retracement are near 17840. Meanwhile,

Before and After the FOMC decision (2:08 PM ET): US yields have moved marginally higher: 2-year yield went from 4.367% to 4.379%, +1.2 basement5-year yield went from 4.021% to 4.034%, +1.3 basis points10 year yield went from 4.112% to 4.127%, +1.5 basis points30-year yield one from 4.361% to 4.373%, +1.2 basis points US stocks are

A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as our next meetingIf we were to see inflation moving down quickly or more-or-less in-line with expectations then I would think a rate cut could be on the table in SeptIf inflation were to prove stickier, then we would weigh that along

In the kickstart video for July 31, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The USDJPY is down sharply after the Bank of Japan did raise rates by 50 basis points to 0.25% and decreased the bond buying to ¥3 trillion.

Semiconductors Surge Ahead in Today’s Trading Session Today’s stock market is a vibrant canvas of greens with semiconductor stocks and major tech companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG) charting notable gains. In an impressive show, Nvidia is currently up by 8.27%, demonstrating investor confidence and perhaps response to recent positive industry developments or financial

The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside and currently is printing new session lows for the day and testing the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June 26 low. Earlier today, the low price reached 1.08059. The 50% midpoint comes in 1.08061. The price just reached a new day low of

Bibi is on the wires: Israel has delivered a crushing blow to Iranian proxiesIsrael will exact a heavy price for any aggression towards it from anywhereIsrael faces challenging days Ismail Haniyeh’s most likely successor is Khaled Mashal, his deputy-in-exile who lives in Qatar, analysts and Hamas officials told Reuters. Mashal narrowly survived an attempt on

Risk assets and commodities in general are doing well today so that’s a portion of the $3 gain in crude today but it’s certainly not the whole story. WTI crude oil is up 3.9% to $77.64 in its best day in six weeks. What’s driving it? The Israel assassination of the Hamas political leader in

Looking at the details: Overall livelihood: 34.5 (previously 33.8)Income growth: 40.4 (previously 40.6) Employment: 42.0 (previously 41.7) Willingness to buy durable goods: 30.0 (previously 29.6) This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that recent trends in economic data will lead the FOMC to revise its statement in ways that suggest a rate cut in September is becoming more likely. Key Points: Acknowledgement of Unemployment: Expected Change: The statement may acknowledge the recent increase in the unemployment rate while continuing to note that it remains

I find it’s always a good idea to re-read the prior FOMC statement just before the new one is released. From June 12: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past

The NASDAQ index has surged to the upside today ahead of the FOMC rate decision. However there has been a slowing of the run higher near the 50 day moving average at 17581.79. The last two tests of that moving average over the last five trading days have also found willing sellers near the level.

China’s central bank is set to move its one-year liquidity injection date to the 25th of each month, starting as early as August, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. This change, part of a broader policy framework overhaul, aims to decouple the Medium-term Lending Facility from the Loan Prime Rates. Highlights of the article: MLF

The Australia Q2 CPI report and BOJ monetary policy decision are already some big events for traders to work with. But there’s still much more to follow in the sessions ahead. In Europe, there will be the Eurozone July flash CPI report although it might not be that big a deal. But in US trading

The AUDUSD moved lower in the Asia-Pacific session after weaker core inflation in Australia tamed some of the fears of a rate hike next week when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets. The subsequent low price extended to a swing area between 0.6475 and 0.6486 where buyers entered (see red number circles on the chart

New Zealand Building Consents slump -13.8% m/m (prior -1.7% )-24% y/y Stats NZ today: “The number of homes consented in the year ended June 2024 has fallen to levels last seen five years ago” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan statement is expected sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window this is 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time The Bank don’t have a firmly scheduled time for their policy announcements. Overnight was a leak: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is

Prior was -2.1%Index at 74.3 vs 70.8 prior (revised to 70.9) Strength was broad-based with the midwest, south and west all growing strongly. It’s a rare recent sign of life in the housing market, though the chart highlights how far the index has fallen. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Mastercard are 2.7% higher pre-market after reporting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. More importantly, the company highlighted that it wasn’t seeing a slowdown from consumers. Revenues of 7.00 billion compared to 6.85 billion expected and earnings were $3.59 vs $3.51 expected. We delivered another strong quarter across all aspects of our business

Happy Fed day. We’re just two hours from the rate decision but the market isn’t expecting any big drama. The derivatives market is 97% priced for no change from the 5.25-5.50% Fed funds target rate. Eyes are on September, where 27.6 basis points of cuts are priced in, or a full rate cut with a

It’s a huge day coming up in Asia. The big focus is the Bank of Japan, the latest scuttlebutt shoved ‘risk’ lower and yen higher on Tuesday: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is under considerationNikkei reiterates the worst kept secret. BOJ considering hike to 0.25%Forexlive Americas

It’s a blockbuster day in the US but more of a mixed picture in Europe. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +1.0%French CAC +0.75%Italy MIB -0.5%Spain IBEX -1.2% Those are some big divergences in Europe and are particularly stark with the S&P 500 up 1.7%. Chalk it up to month-end. This article

A quick round of selling pressure has hit the euro ahead of the month-end London fix. In general, these moves fade after the turn of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters have a piece posted that is a pretty good run down if you want another preview. Earlier: Bank of America expect a Bank of Japan rate hike today … see USD/JPY to (eventually) 145Bank of Japan Decision Day: Will Rates Rise or Hold Steady? Overnight was leaky: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% –

The USDCHF did move lower and to a new low going back to March today after the lower Employment Cost data. The move lower did fall below the 50% of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8777. Recall from last week, the price based against that level and bounced. Today, the sellers

That is very much expected and it reflects the 15 bps increase by the BOJ on their policy rate earlier here. But it is of course the first time they’re raising the rate in 17 years. So, a significant moment perhaps. Meanwhile, MUFG as a whole are only going to be raising the rates of

The USDCAD moved lower in the early US session today, helped by lower employment cost data. The pair may also shift the focus to the FOMC from the BOC. Recall, the BOC did cut for the 2nd consecutive meeting last week. Oil price are also higher today after persistent weakness. Technically, the pair moved back

The Canadian dollar is strengthening today with the help of a few tailwinds: WTI crude oil is up $2.43 to $77.17, largely on geopolitical tailwinds but US inventories also tightenedUS equities are ripping higher in a pro-risk move, with the Nasdaq up 2.5% as we near month endThe Fed decision today is likely to signal

The period between New York close and Tokyo open is the thinnest period of the 24 hour FX cycle. USD/JPY has kept up its swings. OVernight we had leak news: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike Since then there is nothing fresh news nor data wise.

The Bank of Japan have already told us they’ll be announcing plans to cut back on Japanese Government Bond buying. The question is if they’ll hike rates again. The chatter overnight centred on a 15bp hike: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike Bank of Japan Governor

Prior was 150K (revised to 155K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers slowed to 4.8%, lowest in 3 years, down from 5.0% priorJob-changers’ pay gains dropped to 7.2% from 7.7% More details: Goods-producing sectors added 37K jobs, with construction leading at +39KServices sectors added 85K, led by trade/transportation/utilities at +61KProfessional/business services saw notable job losses of -37K

The main event in the European session will be the release of the Eurozone July Flash CPI report. In the American session, we will get the US ADP, the Canadian GDP, the US Q2 Employment Cost Index, the Treasury Refunding Announcement and finally the FOMC Policy Decision. 09:00 GMT – Eurozone July Flash CPI The

Business confidence has a huge jump to 27.1% prior 6.1 Activity outlook 16.3%, also higher prior 12.2 ANZ’s Key points Business confidence jumped 21 points to +27 in July, and expected own activity lifted 4 points to +16. To be fair, these up/down responses are relative to an ever-weaker starting point (past own activity dropped

The major US stock indices are opening higher ahead of the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The employment cost data came in a little bit weaker than expectations at 0.9% versus 1.0%. The market is shrugging off the so-so earnings from Microsoft although it started is down -1.4%. Meta Platforms is on deck

Better than expected retail trade results for the y/y. The m/m is lower than the prior. Mixed results for this data following recent wage gains. I doubt the BoJ is paying too much attention to today’s data but this is probably indicative of on hold given its mixed nature. This article was written by Eamonn

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.5% The readings are a marginal miss on estimates but are a touch higher compared to June. Services inflation are still a sticky point at 2.5% but at least much lower than in June, seen at 2.9% last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The BOJ did hike rates to 0.25% as leaked yesterday. Meanwhile Australia’s trimmed mean CPI was weaker than expected helping to weaken the AUD. The Fed rate decision is later today as is earnings from Meta. After the

Prior -2.2%Market index 201.2 vs 209.3 priorPurchase index 132.8 vs 134.8 priorRefinance index 570.7 vs 614.9 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.82% vs 6.82% prior The drop in the past week owes much to a decline in refinancing activity but purchases activity also fell slightly. It continues to suggest a more subdued mood in the housing market

Private consumption remains solid despite inflation impact weighingWage hikes are becoming more widespreadRising wages will continue to support private consumptionDoesn’t believe rate hike will have significant negative impact on the economyDoes not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceilingWill analyse impact of rate hikes up until now when considering additional rate hikes to

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up

Prior was -3741KGasoline -3665K vs -1043K expDistillates +1534K vs -1242K expRefinery utilization -1.5% vs +0.7% expectedProduction unchanged at 13.3 mbpd API data late yesterday showed: Crude -4495KGasoline -1917KDistillates -322K Crude is mostly moving on geopolitical risks today after the assassination of Hamas’ top political leader and the bombing attack in Beirut. This article was written

Prior +2.5%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.9% The more important statistic is the core reading, and that is unchanged from June. The disinflation process in the euro area is still taking some time to progress further and that’s not helping the ECB to gain more confidence for now. We’ll see what August has

Prior month 0.3%May GDP 0.2 % vs 0.1% estimate. The Advanced GDP released with the April report was 0.1%June advanced GDP 0.1%. Construction, real estate, and rental and leasing and finance and insurance increased, with manufacturing and wholesale trade fallingServices producing industries 0.1%Good producing industries 0.4%total of 15 of 20 sectors increased in May Details

Prior was +1.2%Wages q/q +0.9% vs +1.1% priorBenefits +1.0% vs +1.1% prior This data is a bit lagged but highlights the slow softening in wages and should give the Fed more confidence that a wage-price spiral isn’t a risk. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This week is essential not only because of the central bank meetings (from the US, UK, and Japan) but also because of the quarterly earnings reports of the major technology companies. Results from Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft will be released, and there is always room for surprise. Investors expect these reports to exceed revenue and

The Dow rose with 10 names rising over 1.5% or more led by Travelers with a gain of 3.10%: Travelers (TRV): +3.10%Goldman Sachs (GS): +2.64%JPMorgan (JPM): +2.03%McDonald’s (MCD): +1.95%Chevron (CVX): +1.90%American Express (AXP): +1.84%Walt Disney (DIS): +1.80%UnitedHealth (UNH): +1.75%J&J (JNJ): +1.73%Dow (DOW): +1.57% But the Nasdaq was a different story ahead of some major large-

ING responding to the inflation data from Australia today: If you wanted to find a reason to leave rates unchanged at the 6 August meeting, there is some support in the core numbers published today to say, “Let’s give the economy the benefit of the doubt”. The August decision is certainly more finely balanced today

Headlines: BOJ raises policy rate to 0.25% in July monetary policy meetingBOJ governor Ueda: Weak yen was not necessarily the biggest reason for rate hikeBOJ governor Ueda says does not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceilingBOJ governor Ueda: Hard to tell when the next rate hike may beUSD/JPY extends fall as downside

USD/JPY has extended today’s decline to 280 pips and more than 450 pips since the Bank of Japan floated a series of leaks about a 15 bps hike. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8%HICP +1.7% vs +1.2% y/y expectedPrior +0.9% A bit of an early release with the headlines from Reuters and confirmed here. While the headline readings are higher relative to June, core annual inflation did ease a little from 2.0% in the month before to 1.9% in July. This article was written by Justin Low

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been under sustained pressure since the beginning of July. Analysts have been pointing to potential demand weakness under the surface and economic slack in China. The increase in Trump’s winning odds after the failed assassination attempt might have also contributed to some weakness as he’s a great supporter of the

It was the CPI that was the focus: Australian Q2 core inflation +0.8% q/q (expected 1.0%)AUD/USD has dropped under 0.6500 after core inflation comes in lower than expected The RBA will not raise its cash rate at the meeting next week, August 5 and 6. * As for the credit data, stronger on the month

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the carry trades impacted

Fundamental Overview The BoJ eventually decided to hike rates by 15 bps bringing the policy rate to 0.25%. This move was expected given that the day earlier we got lots of leaks. Governor Ueda in the press conference didn’t say too much but it looks like the weak Yen was the main reason for the

more to come Manufacturing PMI 49.4 expected 49.3, prior 49.5 Services PMI 50.2 expected 50.2, prior 50.5 The Composite comes in at 50.2 prior 51.0 more to come — China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI

China Vice Finance Minister: Will strengthen fiscal policy adjustments, deepen fiscal and tax reformsWill steadily implement consumption tax reform in step-by-step wayWill standardise management of local govts’ non-tax revenues The data from China today did not inspire confidence: China June 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (expected 49.4) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

AMD earnings: EPS $0.69 versus $0.68 estimateRevenues $5.835 billion versus $5.72 billion23 Gross margin 53.5% versus 53.85% estimatesees Q3 revenues at $6.4 billion – $7.0 billion versus $6.62 billion estimate AMD shares are currently trading up 3.16% in volatile trading This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The index eased further on the month but keeps in positive territory, suggesting that the outlook is still moderately optimistic. UBS also noted that analysts were forming a larger consensus on the view that lower short-term rates are coming in Switzerland, the Eurozone, and the US. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Expects BOJ to conduct policy towards realising sustainable, stable 2% inflation targetExpects BOJ to be in close coordination with government in achieving that goal Nothing out of the ordinary there. But it seems like this latest rate hike is in part to do with trying to keep the yen in a better spot at least,

It’s make or break time for USD/JPY as sellers continue to stay in charge. The pair is now treading water below its 200-day moving average (blue line) of 151.63 and that could set up for a steeper fall to come next. The 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing higher this year is seen at

Prior 0.0%Import prices +0.7% vs +0.5% y/y expectedPrior -0.4% The increase on the month owes much to a jump in energy prices. If yo u strip that out, import prices were actually flat in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Paris, an iconic city-break location brimming with culture, haute couture, and gourmet cuisine has grabbed the headlines as the French capital is also the world’s capital of sports this year. Hosting the 2024 Olympic Games, the capital of France is the place to be for competing athletes and global brands sponsoring the largest sporting event

Starbucks earnings: EPS $0.93 versus $0.93 expected Revenues $9.11 billion versus 9.24 pain dollars expected Starbucks CEO says three-part plan is starting to work. Despite the missed shares are still up 1% in after-hours trading Pinterest also announced earnings: EPS $0.29 versus $0.28 expectedrevenues $853.7 million versus $848.2 million The company guided lower with Q3

Well, but is he saying that it sort of did play a role in the decision today? Personally, I would think so. If they didn’t go with a rate hike today, the backlash after their intervention from earlier this month might have been quite brutal. The volatility in the yen continues to play out with

The EURJPY moved higher earlier today, breaking above the 100-hour MA (blue solid line on the chart below) in the process (currently at 166.679. The subsequent move higher extended toward the 100-day MA (step blue line on the chart below) in the Asian and early European session, but fell short of that target at 167.98.

The Japanese yen and Australian dollar have been the main movers in Asia Pacific trading today. The former owes to the BOJ decision, with the central bank hiking rates to 0.25% as expected after yesterday’s leak. Meanwhile, the latter owes to a much softer inflation report earlier – which tempers with expectations for a rate

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the carry trades impacted

Major issue is where to stop raising rates when getting closer to neutral rateBut Japan is definitely far below the uncertain levels of neutral rate nowEconomic indicators to be watched include wages, inflation, service prices, GDP output gapHard to comment on FX impact of stronger yen on economy, pricesThe impact of a stronger yen compared

Prior 19kUnemployment rate 6.0% vs 6.0% expectedPrior 6.0% German unemployment rose this month but at least the jobless rate held steady. Still, it points to some added softness in the labour market as recent negative economic developments seem to be weighing. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Harris is the Democratic Party’s candidate for the US Presidential election. She hasn’t been confirmed as the nominee yet but its all but locked in. says will take on price gougingwill being down costs Inflation is still a focus in the US, despite its decline. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for USD/JPY and in a wider range, considering the volatility in the pair as we digest the BOJ decision. There is one at 152.50 which doesn’t hold much technical significance. But it could hold price from moving too much to

German DAX futures +0.5%French CAC 40 futures +1.0%UK FTSE futures +0.5% This comes after the more positive rotation from tech to value shares in Wall Street yesterday. While the Nasdaq ended lower by 1.3%, the Dow ended higher by 0.5%. And the rebound in tech shares this morning is arguably also helping with the overall

The BOJ usually announce decisions between 0230 and 0330 GMT. Under Bank of Japan Governor Ueda its been usually earlier in that window than later. Today we’ve just ticked past 0330 GMT. The perception on this is that the longer they take, the more they have to dscisuss and the chance of a more significant

Must pay due attention to financial, FX markets and its impact on the economy, pricesUpside risks to prices require attentionJudged it to be appropriate to adjust degree of easingReal rates likely remain significantly negative, so easy conditions will keep supporting economyAppropriate to taper JGB purchases in predictable manner while ensuring stabilityWill keep raising rates, adjust

Prior 0.10%Nakamura, Noguchi dissented to decision on ratesTo taper bond purchases to ¥3 trillion as of Q1 2026That means to reduce scheduled monthly bond buying by around ¥400 billion each quarterBond tapering vote was unanimousTo review bond tapering plan in June next year via midterm reviewUnderlying inflation expected to increase graduallyJapan economy recovering moderately although

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in TehranHere’s a forecast for a 25bp RBA rate hike next week – citing inflation not fallingChina Vice Finance Minister says will strengthen fiscal policy adjustmentsOther Australian data: Retail sales for June 0.5% m/m (expected +0.2%)Other Australian data: Private sector credit (June) 0.6% m/m (expected +0.4%)AUD/USD has dropped under

The leak overnight definitely raises the proposition of a buy the rumour, sell the fact play. But we’ll still have to let the dust settle first to be sure of anything like that. The whipsaw on the decision saw the pair fall to a low of 151.59 with the jump back hitting a high of

Eurostoxx +1.1%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +1.2%UK FTSE +1.2%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.4% Despite a couple of stutters in the last two weeks, even the CAC 40 looks poised to end the month with gains. That speaks to the resilience in equities despite the “correction” talks as of late. S&P 500 futures are up

Earlier news was that Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Iran Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran Oil is trading higher: Middle East pundits are suggesting the days ahead will see Iran-led reprisals. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This takes a potential Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike at the August 5 and 6 meeting of The other measure of core inflation is ‘weighted median’: 0.8% q/q expected 1.0%, prior 1.0% 4.1% y/y expected 4.3%, prior 4.4% This takes a potential Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike at the August 5 and 6

Microsoft: Earnings-per-share comes in at $2.95 versus $2.93Revenues $64.7 billion versus $64.39 billionAzure cloud 29% versus 30.2% estimateIntelligent cloud $28.52 billion versus $28.72 billion expectedProductivity and business processes $20.32 billion versus $20.21 billion estimate The stock is moving lower as it’s just not good enough: Shares are down -7% in after-hours trading Amazon shares down

The data is due at 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time. Sandwiched between a heap of other top-tier info releases. I posted previews of the OZ data earlier ICYMI: Three scenarios to watch for the Reserve Bank of Australia outcomeAustralia Q2 CPI preview – “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”

It depends on economic indicators0.25% policy rate is still extremely lowIf you think of real rates, it’s profoundly negativeWeak yen did not move our central price outlook but we recognised its as an important risk Is it really a case that the BOJ has officially moved to a phase of data dependency? I’m still doubtful

The OPEC+ meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will be held via videoconference on Thursday. The JMMC’s primary role is to monitor compliance with production agreements among OPEC+ members and assess market conditions. This includes reviewing monthly production levels, ensuring that member countries adhere to agreed production cuts or increases, and making recommendations

Sachs CEO David Solomon spoke in an interview with CNBC: he is forecasting one or two cuts Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “I’ve been more cautious about interest-rate cuts all year than the general consensus” “When I now look at the data and the way things are setting up, I think the perspective of one

AUD shunted lower: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Via Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.1mn barrelsDistillates -1.2 mn bblsGasoline -1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Hamas statement conveyed on media outlets: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran’s Tehran Oil is higher. No further details. He was in Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President and to meet Iranian officials. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note conveyed via CNBC from Deutsche Bank, analysts there say the average run higher for VIX is highest in Q3 compared with any other quarter. I wonder if the Bank of Japan doesn’t hike rate today if the SPX will snap back? I’d be a yes on that. The latest chatter is a 15bp

I’m hesitant to read too much into this rally for NQ, given it’s a thin liquidity time. It does appear though that large sell orders haven’t been resting in the range we’ve seen so far. Quite the sell off on Tuesday, thanks NHK: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of

Reuters is out with a new poll of the Presidential election that has Harris leading 43% to 42% over Trump. It’s similar to others that now show a tight race. Betting markets also show a close race. Harris is in a honeymoon period as Republicans re-frame their attacks and Democrats shake off the Biden rust.

Slumping factory output Japanese manufacturers’ outlooks: see August output +0.7% m/m see July output +6.5% m/m I doubt the BoJ is paying too much attention to today’s data but this is probably indicative of on hold given the weakness. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The focus was the inflation data: Australian Q2 core inflation +0.8% q/q (expected 1.0%)AUD/USD has dropped under 0.6500 after core inflation comes in lower than expected The lower than expected core reading removes the prospect of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its meeting next week on August 5 and 6.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar has strengthened against the euro due to slowing growth momentum outside the US, with key economic indicators from China and the euro-zone showing signs of weakening. This has contributed to the USD’s recent rebound. Key Points: USD Strengthening: Euro Weakness: The euro has weakened against the USD, approaching the 200-day moving average

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

From the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos, what he duns a ‘cheat sheet’ for today’s meeting. There is more at his thread on Twitter. And his article, which is gated, but if you can cess: new risks to the labor market have helped rebuild the groundwork for cuts ps. My trimmed down version of a

BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is under considerationNikkei reiterates the worst kept secret. BOJ considering hike to 0.25%US JOLTS job openings 8.184M vs 8.000M estimateUS July consumer confidence 100.3 vs 99.7 expectedUS May CaseShiller 20-city house price index +6.8% y/y vs +6.7% expectedJapan new to FX

Gold prices erased earlier losses, jumping more than $20 to $2405 after Israel’s defense minister said Hezbollah crossed red lines with a missile attack that killed 12 children. The response was a missile attack that the IDF said targeted the commander responsible for the attack. However two security sources cited by Reuters said the commander

The USDCHF stretched higher yesterday to start the trading week, and in doing so moved toward the key 200-day MA/38.2% of the move up from the December 2023 low. Those levels came in near 0.8879 to 0.8883 respectively. The high price reached 0.8867 today (close but still a safe distance from the 200-day MA). Staying

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady decline since hitting a new all-time high on the 17th of July. We saw a reversal in many other markets on that day and although the catalyst hasn’t been clear it seems like it’s all been connected to deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the

Germany Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y -0.1% vs. 0.0% expected and -0.2% prior.Germany Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q -0.1% vs. 0.1% expected and 0.2% prior. The German economy contracted in the second quarter. This adds to many other negative economic releases for the largest European economy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

They say competition is key. In business, it certainly leads to quicker innovation and more refined product offering. The cryptocurrency world is no different, with the dominant Bitcoin battling runner-up Ethereum for market share. Regardless of whose corner you stand in, cryptocurrencies are here, tradeable and making the news. If you bought Bitcoin at a

Prior was 100.4Expectations 78.2 vs 72.8 priorPresent situation 133.6 vs 135.3 prior16.0% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” from 15.7%.12 month inflation expectations 5.4% vs 5.4% priorOn a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes fell to a 12-year low. “Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the

Elon Musk took part in an ‘X Takeover’ podcast hosted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account. was held on Musk’s X social media platformtook place on Monday You may be seeing headlines (and I quote): Elon Musk says he doesn’t like crypto all that much – not even Bitcoin Musk did not say that.

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing in the past 10 trading days were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the

The EURUSD has fallen below the 200-day MA at 1.08173, and preceded to extend lower on the technical break. However, once the price reached the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 100-day MA between 1.07946 and 1.07994, the buyers have stalled the fall, and there is a modest bounce higher. That bounce

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures flat S&P 500 futures are also seen flat now, after having been slightly down earlier in the day. It’s all still a very pensive mood in equities, especially for tech shares. Microsoft will be reporting earnings after the close today, so that is the big one to watch. The

The kickstart video takes a look at three other major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. As a bonus, I also take a look at the EURJPY after a view of the pair yesterday outlining a potential trading opportunity (see post here). What is the bias for each pair,

Prior month 8.140M revised to 8.23MJob openings 8.184M. That is down -941,000 over the year. The job opening rate held at 4.9% in Juneaccommodations and food services +120Kstate and local government excluding education +94K. Durable goods manufacturing -88Kfederal government -62KVacancy rate of 4.9% versus 4.9% previouslyQuits rate 2.1% versus 2.1% previously (revised from 2.2%). The

o Eaelier today, the USDJPY moved up to test the 200 hour moving average at 155.191, and found willing sellers. The price in the early New York session moved back below a swing area between 154.52 and 154.878, and has now gotten another push lower on reports that the BOJ board members are to discuss

The earlier leak was from NHK and this time it’s from Jiji. The content is the same: That the BOJ is considering a 15 bps hike rather than the 10 bps the market was mulling over. The decision is due in about 12 hours. USD/JPY is near the lows of the day, down 28 pips

Nikkei is now getting in on the worst kept secret. They say that the DOJ is reportedly considering a rate hike to 0.25%. They also add that the central bank is looking to decide by how much and how fast to reduce its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds. Meanwhile, the Nikkei reports that Japan’s

Atsushi Mimura takes over at the end of the month and the market is unsure of what changes are coming. His hints in today’s comments don’t suggest a big splash. Will act under internationally agreed commitments on foreign exchangeIt has been internationally agreed that measures including intervention are allowed when necessaryA change in Vice Finance

Prior -14.0Economic confidence 95.8 vs 95.4 expectedPrior 95.9Industrial confidence -10.5 vs -10.7 expectedPrior -10.1; revised to -10.2Services confidence 4.8 vs 5.5 expectedPrior 6.5; revised to 6.2 Of note, the employment expectations indicator dipped below its long-term average of 100 for the first time since April 2021. That suggests some softness to the labour market outlook

What’s this chart saying? UK 2-year yields are down 3.3 basis points today in the sixth consecutive day of declines. The move comes ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate decision, with the rates market pricing in a 60% chance of a cut. The Bank Rate is currently 5.25% so to get to 3.85% over

Today’s Market Overview The broader market showed divergent trends today, with Healthcare leading the gains while the Technology sector displayed mixed results. Notably, major tech players like Nvidia (NVDA) saw a slight dip, while Apple (AAPL) incrementally rose, exemplifying a nuanced tech landscape. Healthcare Ascends Standing out in today’s market is the Healthcare sector, which

The price of crude oil is settling at $75.81. That is down $-1.35 or -1.75%. The high-priced today reached $77.69. The low price was at $75.35. The low was the lowest since June 7. Fundamentally, summer doldrums with weak demand from China is being offset by Middle East violence. Technically looking at the daily chart,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD is extending higher, but the falling 100 are moving averages on each is getting in the way of any upside momentum. For the AUDUSD the price extended briefly above that moving average but quickly rotated back to the downside. That moving average comes in at 0.65539. Getting above that level would

Synopsis: BofA anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged in July, signaling progress in reducing inflation while maintaining a data-dependent approach for future rate cuts. The USD’s reaction will hinge on Chair Powell’s tone and any hints about a September rate cut. Key Points: Policy Rate and Inflation: Unchanged Policy Rate: BofA

The fall in the USDJPY has had a negative impact on US stocks recently with the thought that the carry trade would lead to the unwind of funding stocks with JPY. Whether true or not, it can be the “story” that causes a reaction. The USDJPY has moved lower on the report that the Bank

As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. We are still a day away from the FOMC rate decision where the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged with a tilt to an ease in September. The Fed will NOT release the dot-plot of rate forecast

Prior was +1.9Service sector outlook -0.1 vs -4.1 priorThe employment index -0.2 vs +1.8 priorThe input price index fell from 24.7 to 21.8 and the wages and benefits index moved down from 16.4 to 13.4Retail sales outlook -18.1 vs -18.1 prior Comments in the report: Utilities It feels like the economy is getting better. Pipeline

Prior was +7.2%Prices m/m +0.3% vs +0.4% expected National house price data from the FHFA: Prices up 5.7% y/y vs 6.3% priorPrices m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% prior The creeping weakness is more-evident in the national numbers, rather than in the 20-largest cities. Long-dated yields are coming down but I doubt there will be a surge

The major indices are higher in early US trade. After the close AMD, Microsoft, Starbucks, and Pinterest report earnings. Microsoft shares are trading up $2.15 or 0.50% in early trading. A snapshot of the market 12 minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average average is up 159.13 points or 0.39% at 40699.07S&P index

It’s a big week on the economic calendar, including the BOJ, Fed and BOE decisions. That kicks off with the Bank of Japan on Wednesday in Tokyo but first we get a decent slate of US economic data, starting at 9 am ET with: CaseShiller US housing pricesMonthly house price data from the FHFA There

The yen jumped on a report that the BOJ will discuss a 15 bps hike rather than the 10 bps hike the market has been contemplating. That would take rates from 0.10% to 0.25%. Here is the report Translation of the key parts: Some board members believe that the risk of yen depreciation pushing up

ING’s latest ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting: We believe that the recently released inflation and labour data continue to justify the Bank of Japan’s rate normalisation. We are expecting a 15bp hike tomorrow, but the decision is still up in the air. Currently, the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a

The USDCAD is pushing higher but continues to find resistance near the-yesterday at 1.3864. The price has rotated down and is currently back down near the-April. Recall last weekthe price did move above that level but quickly rotated to the downside on two separate occasions. Yesterday the price moved above that level in rotated at

The tight range speaks to the lack of appetite among most dollar pairs so far today. The only exception once again is really USD/JPY, with the pair up 0.5% to 154.70 but off earlier highs as the 155.00 mark holds. As an aside, there are large expiries there in play so do be wary of

Prior +3.4%HICP +2.9% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +3.6% The readings are lower than estimated as Spanish headline inflation continues to swing around mostly in the past half-year. As for core annual inflation, it is seen easing further to 2.8% – down from 3.0% in June. That’s comfort for the ECB but still not quite at

It’s still very much to do with the volatility swings since last week. This time, we’re moving in the other direction as the BOJ and Fed meetings are just around the corner. As mentioned earlier, the near-term bias in the pair is now more neutral. That frees up a bit of room to roam for

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: Monetary policy specifics are up to the BOJ to decideExpect the BOJ to closely coordinate with govt, conduct appropriate monetary policy toward inflation target USD/JPY is range bound on the session, roughly 153.63 – 154.24 Currently around 154.05 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Italy Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y 0.9% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.7% prior.Italy Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior. The periphery nations remain the bright spot in Europe as we have also seen with the Spanish release earlier. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data for June 2024 Unemployment rate 2.5% expected 2.6%, prior 2.6% Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.23 vs. expected 1.24, prior 1.24 Plenty of jobs. Need higher wages though. That’s what the BoJ want to see, higher wages to fuel higher spending and to keep inflation stably and sustainably around 2%. This article was written by Eamonn

It will be a busy one on the economic calendar today in Europe. The preliminary Q2 GDP numbers will be key ones to watch but I would wager the inflation numbers from Germany and Spain to be the more crucial element for the ECB to consider at this stage. The estimate is for headline annual

Via Scotia, preview comments on what to expect from the Bank of Japan. Out of 46 forecasters within consensus, only 9 expect a hike. Markets are assigning a higher probability to a 10bps hike that has been floating around 70% odds with about 7bps priced. The case for hiking rests entirely upon gauging the degree

Dallas Fed Prior was -15.1 Details: General business activity -17.5 vs -15.1 priorCompany outlook -18.4 vs -6.9 priorPrices paid +23.1 vs +21.5 priorNew orders -12.8 vs -1.3 priorShipments -16.3 vs +2.8 priorEmployment +7.1 vs -2.9 prior Overall, the details and the commentary are notably worse than the headline. I wonder if Hurricane Beryl affected some

The major stock indices are ending the day mixed. Dow is down marginally. The S&P and Nasdaq closed marginally higher. Russell 2000 is not so lucky as it falls 1% on the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average fell -40.21 points or -0.12% at 40540.12S&P index rose 4.46 points or 0.08% at

The dollar held a touch firmer to start the new week but is keeping little changed overall today. It’s still early of course but in Europe, the euro will be in focus amid a host of data releases to come. We’ll be getting Q2 preliminary GDP across the euro area alongside inflation data from Spain

Temasek is a global investment company headquartered in Singapore. Newswires splashing the headlines on the firm’s investment intentions: Singapore’s state-owned Temasek plans to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five yearsThe firm remains cautious on putting money into China This caution on China is increasing as China appears to be incrementally closing

MUFG are/were expecting a 15bp rate hike from the Bank of Japan this week. But, in a note, they say that the lack of guidance from officials at the Bank is casting doubt on that call. MUFG cite market expectations for a rate hike, and say that if a hike is not forthcoming the yen

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Spain Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y 2.9% vs. 2.5% expected and 2.5% prior.Spain Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.8% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.8% prior. Some nice pickup in the Spain’s economy while inflation continues to abate. GDP growth Y/Y in Spain averaged 2.03% from 1996 until 2024, so this is good news for the soft landing

Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.4% prior.Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior. Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter of 2024, Ireland (+1.2%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Lithuania (+0.9%) and Spain

US futures keep the calm so far on the dayEuro stays little changed after flurry of dataEurozone July final consumer confidence -13.0 vs -13.0 prelimEurozone Q2 preliminary GDP 0.3% vs. 0.2% Q/Q expectedItaly Q2 preliminary GDP 0.2% vs 0.2% Q/Q expectedGermany Q2 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs. 0.1% Q/Q expectedBavaria July CPI +2.5% vs +2.7% y/y

The US Treasury said it expects to borrow $740 billion in Q3, which is much lower than the $847 billion estimate from April. That’s due to a higher cash balance at the beginning of the quarter and lower redemptions in the Fed’s SOMA market. It assumes a cash balance at the end of this quarter

The online trading and fintech space is brimming with excitement as the Nomination Round for the UF AWARDS APAC 2024 is now live. Starting on July 30, the Nomination Round is the first stage that leading businesses must complete in order to be considered for an APAC title. With so many reputable B2B and B2C

Prior 102.7 The reading indicates a more cautious outlook to the Swiss economy in the next six months. And that has been a bit of a trend in recent months as well. If anything, it speaks to the more tentative take on economic conditions in the region as we approach the second half of the

McDonald’s says business slowed ‘meaningfully’ in the majority of marketsDallas Fed July manufacturing survey -17.5 vs -15.1 priorTreasury says it will borrow $740 billion in Q3UK Chancellor: We have inherited overspending of £22 bilion, not to act isn’t an optionHurricane season might pick up later this weekFBI: Motive still not clear in Trump shooting, no

Reaffirms prudent monetary policy approachChinese economy diverges with many risks in key areasStill faces insufficient domestic demandSees increasing negative external impactTo promote stable development of property marketNeed to keep stepping up macroeconomic policiesReiterates proactive fiscal policyFocus of economic policies to shift more to consumption Again, all of these are very on the surface and lacking

In the European session we will get the German CPI readings and the Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP report. Although we might see a market reaction, it shouldn’t be sustained as the market will look towards the more imp Eurozone Flash CPI report tomorrow. In the American session we have the US Consumer Confidence and the

They were down roughly 0.3% earlier in Asia trading but have kept largely steady in European morning trade thus far. Both Nasdaq futures and Dow futures are also up 0.1%, reflecting a more tentative mood overall I would say. There will be a couple of modest earnings releases coming up but all eyes will be

Microsoft will announce earnings after the close tomorrow. EPS is expected to be $2.93 on revenues of $64.39B. That compares to earnings and revenues from a year ago of $2.69 on $56.18B. Earnings are up 8.92%. Revenues are up 14.6%. Of course, price reaction will not only be with regard to the beat or miss

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark. It’s a key area where offers are also lined up, so the expiries will add to a bit of resistance in preventing any major upside extension in the session ahead. Just be wary

HSBC’s Global Private Banking chief investment officer has expressed a positive view on most Asian equities for the balance of the year. Says that Asia remains the most important growth engine of the global economy, citing both GDP and earnings growth for Asia ex-Japan (for 2024): 4.6% and 23% respectiveely Overweight: equities in Japan, India,

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y priorHesse CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y priorSaxony CPI +3.1% vs +2.8% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +1.9% y/y prior It’s a bit of a mixed report but at the balance, it

The data due from Japan and Australia today are not the focus. For Japan its on the Bank of Japan meeting today and tomorrow: Japanese yen stays in the spotlight with the BOJ coming up later this week For Australia it’s the CPI data due on Wednesday, July 31, 2024: Australian CPI data due this

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% It’s a bit of a breather but again, still very much early in the day. Wall Street will have the final say again, so we’ll see how things go when US markets open later. For now, US futures are also keeping

And this will just add to the mix of things amid key central bank meetings, month-end rebalancing, and also the US jobs report on Friday. Here are some of the bigger names on the calendar for the days ahead: Tuesday, 30 July – Microsoft (after hours)- AMD (after hours)- Pfizer (pre-market)- Rio Tinto (after hours)-

Once again, there’s not much in it as the pair continues to stay a little swingy awaiting the BOJ and Fed meetings tomorrow. But looking at price action, the near-term chart shows a push back above the 100-hour moving average (red line) for USD/JPY. That suggests the near-term bias to be more neutral currently. The

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3% The French economy continues to hold up in Q2, keeping a more resilient tone. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Via a note from Deutsche Bank, urging everyone to chill out on the level of Federal Reserve easing they expect: As we approach this week’s FOMC (DB preview here), optimism has again been building that we’re about to embark on a notable Fed easing cycle.For the 8th time in this rate cycle, the market has

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index ANZ comment on the result: The fact that consumer confidence held onto most of last week’s sizeable 5.9pt gain suggests households may be seeing the benefits of the Stage 3 tax cut Yes, tax cuts and an expected further boost yet to come from various ‘cost of living’ support

5 reasons the Bank of Japan should be wary of hiking rates this weekJapan’s Hayashi says Bank of Japan and government to closely coordinate📉 Chart of the day: Failed breakout in S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) 4-hourBank of Japan Decision Day: Will Rates Rise or Hold Steady?Australia data – June Building approvals -6.5% m/m (expected

Australian building approvals for June 2024 come in at -6.5% m/m expected -1.5%, prior +5.7% For the y/y, comes in at -3.7% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Snippet summary from BMO on opportunities ahead for the Federal Reserve to signal a September rate cut: the verdict is still out on the amount of signalling Powell is willing to provide on Wednesdaythere is enough uncertainty that we suspect there will be meaningful and tangible price action – most likely on the constructive side

📉 Chart of the day: The simple S&P 500 technical analysis Today’s chart analysis focuses on a significant event in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) on a 4-hour timeframe. 🕒 The market has been trading within a descending channel, initially appearing as a potential bull flag—a pattern often signaling a bullish continuation. However, the

This comes via a Bloomberg report (gated): Beijing says it will stop publishing daily flows data.The decision follows a move in May to end data on intraday flows through trading links with Hong Kong. Investors will lose the ability to calculate net flows at the end of each trading day from August 18. The only

The news from Maccas was … good news for shareholders! Anyway, this isn’t a hindsight post. The news on Monday: Global comp sales were down 1% in Q2 compared to +0.5% expected by analysts. US sales fell 0.7% in Q2. Why could this be good news? Well, its all about ‘inferior goods’. No judgement! …

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is due at 1400 US Eastern time on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference follows a half hour later. Via Scotia The FOMC should tentatively have greater confidence that this isn’t quite another one of those prior false hope periods for low inflation. US

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At the start of the US trading day, the price was trading near the 200-day MA at 1.08162 (green step line on the chart above). The price action moved through that level in the morning session, and in doing so, moved toward the next in what was a cluster of technical targets. The second target

The USDCHF buyers are continuing what they started last week when they moved away from the 50% midpoint of the move up from the December 2023 low (at 0.8777). The move higher has now taken the price closer to the broken 200 day MA at 0.8880. Also near that level is the broken 38.2% of

When technical levels overlap and find sellers (or buyers) leaning against that level, it should raise an antenna for traders as a “key risk focused level”. That is, if the price cannot get back above that level, the sellers (or buyers) are in control. Moreover, if multi-time frames (i.e. daily, or 4-hour , hourly, etc)

Today’s stock market overview Today’s trading session paints a diverse picture across different market sectors, highlighted by Tesla’s notable gain and a mixed performance in technology and healthcare sectors. This article delves into these developments, providing a snapshot for traders and investors looking to navigate the complexities of today’s market. 🚀 Auto Manufacturing: Tesla at

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing in the past 10 trading days were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the

It’s a big week for central banks as decisions from the BOJ, Fed and BOE come back-to-back-to-back in a 32-hour span starting early Wednesday in Japan (late Tuesday in the US). Mechanically, the most-uncertain is the Bank of Japan, which hasn’t clearly signaled what it will do. The market is pricing in a 61% chance

Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are continuing their downward momentum with each trading at new lows for the cycle. The AUDUSD is approaching its 61.8% retracement of its move up from the April low. That level comes in at 0.65283. Last week the price fell below that level but we bounced back. However the high

The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside today, and in the process is now breaking below its 200-day moving average at 1.08162 and moving into a cluster of technical levels. Staying below that MA keep the sellers more in control with more work to do to increase the bearish bias. The next target

There are rumours of a capital gains tax. Disaster of Truss’ mini-budget shows what happens if you don’t take actionWe will cut spending projects worth £8 billion next yearWe will be taking immediate actionIf left unaddressed, this would result in a 25% increase in the budget deficit this year Cable is under some pressure today

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC -0.9%Italy MIB -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.4% European stocks opened at the best levels of the day but steadily deteriorated, particularly in the final 90 minutes of trading. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar on steadier footing to kick start what will be a big week for marketsJapanese yen stays in the spotlight with the BOJ coming up later this weekUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – The pair bounced on the key 152.00 supportUK June mortgage approvals 59.98k vs 60.40k expectedUK July CBI retailing reported sales -43 vs -24

Main points from UBS on their outlook for the US Federal Reserve: policy pivot on the horizon, UBS base case is a September 25bp rate cut Citing: UBS expect the US continues to head toward a soft economic landingeconomy has entered a period of below-trend growth, growth has slowed to a modest pacesteadily rising unemployment

The risk mood is deteriorating across the board, leading to some US dollar bids, though some of that has reversed into the London fix. In the bigger picture, the mood is darkening with the S&P 500 now slightly negative after rising by 1% earlier. European stocks are also on the low, bitcoin is under pressure

Amid all the focus on the Fed, let’s also not forget that it is NFP week in markets. Not only that, the BOJ and BOE are also on the agenda in adding to Australia and Eurozone CPI data. And to top all of that off, there is also plenty of major earnings releases on the

Gold is at the lows of the day in a worsening selloff that has it down $14 to $2372. It was trading higher on the day until about an hour ago when the broader risk trade began to deteriorate. Zooming out, gold’s run above $2450 increasingly looks like a failure as a series of lower

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The recovery from Friday in stocks is continuing ahead of a busy week. US yields are lower ahead of the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday (no change expected). The BOE (chance for a cut at 60%), and the

Prior 59.99k; revised to 60.13kNet consumer credit £1.2 billionPrior £1.5 billion On net, UK individuals borrowed £2.7 billion of mortgage debt in June. Meanwhile, the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending rose to 0.5% in June – keeping the positive trend in the last few months. This article was written by Justin Low at

The USDCAD is extending higher and in the process is moving above the highs from last week and the high going back to April 2024 at 1.38448. The price is also extending above the high of a swing area going back to 2023 at 1.3855. Going forward, staying above 1.38448 would keep the buyers in

The euro is floundering near the lowest since July 8 as the US dollar broadly strengthens. It’s tough to say what’s driving the moves at the moment but Thursday’s stronger US GDP numbers and Friday’s hotter PCE inflation are tailwinds for the dollar. That said, Fed pricing hasn’t moved much and Treasury yields are lower

McDonald’s is out with a warning on the health of consumers, and not just the physical health. The fast food sector is first to feel the pinch when money is tight and that’s what is happening now, according to an exec on today’s post-earnings call. An exec said that the quick-serve sector ‘meaningfully’ slowed in

The main events for the week ahead are as follows: On Tuesday, Switzerland will release the KOF economic barometer, and the U.S. will publish the CB consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings data. Wednesday will bring inflation data for Australia and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcement. Additionally, the eurozone will release its inflation

Comments from the FBI deputy director: Motive still not clearTrump agreed to participate in an interviewNo evidence of co-conspiratorsSuspect’s search history showed power plants, mass shooting events, bombs and attempted assassination of Slovakian PMShooter made more than 25 different firearms-related purchases online using an aliasWas identified as a suspicious person and police took a photo

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up

German DAX futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.4% S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.5% following the rebound in Wall Street towards the end of last week. But for this week, it’s too soon for investors to be getting too excited. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are all going to be reporting earnings after hours

In the Kickstart video for July 29, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – to start the trading week. IN the weekend video posted on Friday, I spoke to key levels in the EURUSD (and the USDJPY, GBPUSD and other major pairs vs the USD).

Synopsis: Goldman Sachs analyzes the recent sharp decline in USD/JPY and outlines a cautious approach to reengaging in long positions, anticipating potential stabilization around the 150 level. Key Points: Recent USD/JPY Movement: Decline: USD/JPY has dropped nearly 10 big figures from its early July peak of almost 162.Factors: A combination of JPY-positive factors has driven

And for now, the volatility in the yen continues to persist as such. USD/JPY itself touched a low of 153.01 earlier before keeping around 153.40 levels now. And the high in Asia trading was at 154.35, so that is a wide range already seen on the day. But the technical picture remains little changed overall:

This week is going to be one of the busiest weeks of the year in terms of the numbers of events. Unfortunately, today the calendar is empty, so we might see some consolidation ahead of the key events. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

There is some low-impact data from Singapore: business confidenceexport and import pricesPPI But nothing for major FX. I’m sure we’ll get something to shift major FX rates around, perhaps a headline or two. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the trading week gets started in the US, the premarket gains seen in the Dow have been reversed. The NASDAQ and S&P are still up. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average is down -90 points or -0.22% at 40499.37S&P index up 9.15.20.16 percent of 5468NASDAQ index is up 80

It’s good to be back after a week away. The economic calendar and earnings calendar is very busy this week and it looks like the hurricane season will pick up as well. An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/JPY at the 154.00 mark. Amid the bigger swings in the past two weeks, the expiry level might be one to watch in terms of keeping a lid on price action in the session ahead. It

Trump spoke at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee, making a number of promises re crypto: He said he would not sell any of Federal government bitcoin holdings, creating the core of a “strategic national bitcoin stockpile” “If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration to keep 100% of all the bitcoin

The decision is likely to be a finely balanced one though, with expectations of the bank rate vote being 6-3 or 5-4 in favour of a rate cut. But what are traders pricing in for the decision currently? The OIS market shows that there is a ~61% probability priced in, with roughly 55 bps of

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin eventually managed to break above the key 67275 resistance as the risk mood improved in the latter part of last week. From a macro perspective, nothing has changed as the Fed is going to cut into resilient growth, which should ultimately be a strong bullish driver for the market. Over the weekend,

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up and

UK retailers look to have endured another rough month as the retail sales balance slumps further in July. The headline reading is the weakest since April, with CBI noting that poor weather and softer demand conditions weighing on the retail sales. The outlook index for August is seen at -32, which is a mild improvement

Cannot simply overlook the impact a weak yen and rising prices are having on consumptionImportant for government, BOJ to guide policy with a close eye on recent yen declines Is this a bit of a suggestion of what they want the BOJ to be doing later this week? This article was written by Justin Low

Domestic sight deposits CHF 449.5 bn vs CHF 452.9 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell in the past week but remains in the range of what we have been seeing in the last few months. So, nothing quite out of the ordinary here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A snippet from the Morgan Stanley Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) preview. MS cite ‘considerable progress on inflation’ will allow the Federal Reserve to inch closer to rate cuts. Morgan Stanley are expecting three cuts this year, beginning at the September FOMC meeting. MS are expecting Powell to indicate that the Fed is

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0866USD/JPY 153.85GBP/USD 1.2865USD/CHF 0.8833USD/CAD 1.3836AUD/USD 0.6550NZD/USD 0.5898 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

National Australia Bank, from their latest NAB Business Pulse: August 2024: The cash rate is likely to remain stable at 4.35% out to May 2025, according to a recent NAB Economics outlook. Looking ahead, the NAB Economics team forecasts a drop to 3.6% by December 2025, falling still further in 2026. — The Reserve Bank

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 70 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 50 bps (67% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoE: 55 bps (60% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 48 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) RBNZ: 67 bps

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet on August 5 and 6. Ahead of that, on July 31, are inflation data for Q2 2024 and June 2024. Both are due at 11.30 am Sydney time on Wednesday, July 31 (0130 GMT and 2130 US Eastern time on Tuesday). Snippet preview points via Commonwealth Bank of Australia:

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% French stocks are the ones lagging, keeping with a more cautious mood after last weeks’ drop. US futures are keeping higher though, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.4% on the day. So, the overall risk mood is in a better

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so. Post ’em if ya got ’em! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank are forecasting a close call at the Bank of England meeting this week: 5-4 vote in favour of a 25bp cutexpect the Monetary Policy Committee to deliver its first rate cut of the cyclethis will lower the Bank Rate to 5%think the case for a rate cut rests on a shifting reaction function

Deutsche Bank expect a line ball Bank of England rate cut this week, 5-4 vote in favourOil markets awaiting the results of Venezuela’s presidential electionDeutsche Bank expect 3 Fed rate cuts in 2024. BoA says just 1PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1316 (vs. estimate at 7.2522)Brent crude oil has jumped higher

Reuters have a long piece up on a major Bank of Japan review of past policy that “will present a paradigm shift for the central bank’s ideas around inflation”. Summary points: Comprehensive review to help BOJ make case for future rate hikes Key message of review is that Japan is ‘ready for higher rates’ Deputy