There is another excess supply in the economy to bring inflation back down toward 2% targetWe need to be more symmetric in our policyindicators are suggesting that broad base price pressures are easingIf inflation continues to move down as we expect, it is reasonable to expect lower rates. We don’t want to predetermine policy This […]

The decision on whether to hike rates will be a “close call” and a “hard one to make”, according to one of the sources. Another said that it will be more of a “judgment call” in terms of whether to act this month or wait until later in the year. But one thing is for

The Bank of Canada will announce her interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET (CLICK HERE). The tilt is for a 25 basis point cut to 4.5% from 4.75%. However, a survey 30 economists and Reuters puts the average rate at 4.57%. So there is some dissension. The press conference will begin at 10:30 AM

The BOC press conference will begin at 10:30 AM. The prepared text from BOCs Tiff Macklem has already been released. You can read his full statement (which he will read at 10:30 AM) is below. July 24, 2024 Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss the July

The USDJPY continues its run to the downside and trades to the lowest levels since May 16. In the process, the price is moving below the 50% of the move up from the March low. That level comes in at 154.209 and is now close resistance. The low from May 16 comes in at 154.57.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. However, they may not feature too much into play given the state of play in major currencies this week. The first one being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark but the pair is feeling rather heavy already in the handover from Asia to

Reuters with the info, on a survey covering wage negotiations: data based on 145 pay settlements covering 370,000 employeesemployers offered average annual pay settlements of 4.9% in the three months to June, unchanged from the previous month The implication: strong wage growth that may sustain the Bank of England’s inflation worries More here: Official data

Headlines: USD/JPY drops below 155.00 mark for the first time in seven weeksUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – The sellers remain in controlEurozone July flash services PMI 51.9 vs 53.0 expectedFrance July flash services PMI 50.7 vs 49.8 expectedGermany July flash services PMI 52.0 vs. 53.1 expectedGermany August GfK consumer sentiment -18.4 vs -21.0 expectedUK July flash

Prior +3.9%Market index 209.3 vs 214.1 priorPurchase index 134.8 vs 140.4 priorRefinance index 614.9 vs 613.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.82% vs 6.87% prior Mortgage applications fell back in the past week with a drop in purchases activity offsetting a marginal increase in refinancing activity. Overall, it still points to a more subdued sentiment in the

Jibun Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for July 2024 for Japan Manufacturing PMI 49.2, first time under 50 (and into contraction) in 3 month expected 50.5, prior 50.0sub indexes show that output and new orders fell slightly, higher prices weigh on margins (input cost inflation to the highest since April 2023)new orders weakest

Prior 52.8Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 46.1 expectedPrior 45.8Composite PMI 50.1 vs 51.1 expectedPrior 50.9 The growth in the Eurozone economy has stalled in July, with services activity growing at a slower pace and manufacturing conditions continuing to dawdle. The former reading is a 4-month lower while the latter reading is a 7-month low. That suggests

Bloomberg (gated) gathered together views on the USD from Deutsche, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley. Deutsche Bank say that tarriffs & associated stronger implications for the USD are significantly more likely to be dominant than stated polices to seek a weaker USDBarclays say in isolation the tariff risk is enough to support a rally for the

The AUDUSD has continued its run to the downside in trading today, and in the process broke below a 100-day moving average of 0.6607, and moved down to test the 200-day moving average at 0.6582. Also in play on the downside is the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low. That level

Key levels and market trends for S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) 📈 Current market trend for S&P 500 e-mini futures: The S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) have been in a strong upward trend within a well-defined ascending channel since October.The chart shows consistent higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish market sentiment. 📉 Recent

Oil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw larger than expectedEarnings after the close led by Alphabet and Tesla. Tesla misses. Alphabet beatsUS stocks close lower ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earningsGOP Nominee Trump: I will go ahead and debate Harris. Happy to do more.Crude oil futures settle at $76.96Macron:Outgoing majority has lost

Trump supports crypto, attracting votes from the sector Bitcoin (BTC) is on the cusp of significant price movements due to two major catalysts: the launch of new Ethereum ETFs and the evolving political landscape with Donald Trump’s increased engagement in the crypto space. Ethereum ETF Approval, Trump’s Crypto Endorsement, and Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook Recently, the

Services PMI 52.0 vs. 53.1 expected and 53.1 prior.Manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs. 44.0 expected and 43.5 prior.Composite PMI 48.7 vs. 50.7 expected and 50.4 prior. Key Findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 48.7 (June: 50.4). 4-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 52.0 (June: 53.1). 4-month low. HCOB

Services PMI 52.4 vs. 52.5 expected and 52.1 prior.Manufacturing PMI 51.8 vs. 51.1 expected and 50.9 prior.Composite PMI 52.7 vs. 52.6 expected and 52.3 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 52.7 (Jun: 52.3). 2-month high. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 52.4 (Jun: 52.1). 2-month high. Flash UK Manufacturing

Prior month was 0.6%Wholesale inventories advanced for June 0.2% versus 0.5% estimate.Retail inventories ex auto 0.2% versus revised -0.1% last month (from 0.0%) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

JPY lower, AUD & NZD too. Not helped by a weak fix for CNY (lowest from the onshore yuan since November 21 last year). The outlook for the NZD includes the potential for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut by perhaps the end of this year. New Zealand’s economy has slumped badly and

Last week the Wall Street Journal reported on the claim that Musk was to donate USD45mn a month to Trump. The Journal cited, sources “familiar with the matter.” Musk says its b/s: “What’s been reported in the media is simply not true,” “I am not donating $45 million a month to Trump.”Musk has created a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

But alas, the ECB has to keep their focus on inflation pressures first and foremost. If growth expectations were the main argument, there would be a strong reason to push with a rate cut in September after the PMI data earlier. Instead, the situation now presents a bit of a headache for the central bank.

EUR/USD is now down 0.2% on the day to 1.0832 and looks poised for a further decline, at least from the charts. The dollar has been holding up better this week and the more sluggish risk mood is also helping with that in trading today. Looking at the chart above, EUR/USD now looks on course

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against the major currencies since last Wednesday, although it’s unclear what has been behind the move. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The theme among major currencies recently has been a stronger yen, with USD/JPY continuing to drop. But the dollar itself is also seen advancing against the rest of the major currencies bloc. In particular, the antipodeans have been softer this week amid ongoing weakness with the Chinese yuan as well. Here’s a snapshot of things

Today, we will finally get some notable releases. It’s the PMIs Day, so we will see how economic activity fared in July for the major economies and especially the US. We have also a central bank decision on the agenda as the Bank of Canada will release its policy setting with a rate cut widely

German DAX futures -0.4%French CAC 40 futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.2% It’s a bit of a rough one with US futures also holding lower, mostly from tech shares. Tesla’s earnings underwhelmed and while Alphabet’s was a bit, there are some warning signals for the coming quarters. That is weighing on the overall mood currently. S&P

Main points made by Westpac in thier CPI preview, saying “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”: Westpac confirms its June quarter CPI forecast of 1.0%qtr/3.8%yr which we first released on June 18 and left unchanged at our July 2 update. Our Trimmed Mean forecast is also unchanged at 0.9%qtr/4.0%yr. For

Visa Inc (V) Q3 2024 (USD): Shares are trading down -2.11% after the close. Adj. EPS: $2.51 (exp. $2.43) BEATRevenue: $8.9B (exp. $8.89B) BEA Tesla Inc (TSLA) Q2 2024 (USD): Shares are trading down -5.22% after trading down -2.04% during the day today Adj. EPS: $0.52 (exp. $0.62) MISSRevenue: $25.5B (exp. $24.77B) BEAT Tesla’s focus

155.25 and thereabouts the low, a very sharp drop from its high a few minutes ago just under 156.00. Fears of intervention reignited. The drop took it to its lowest since June 7. NZD/USD has fallen also, to its lowest since May 2, circa 0.5943 Not so dramatic for AUD/USD, but its to a one-month

Former Pres. Trump and GOP nominee Trump initially said he would not debate Harris but has changed his mind. Says that he will be happy to do more. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

JPY has been the outperformer, surging against the USD. Analysts at MUFG Bank are a little wary though: Japanese politicians are nervous about the snail’s pace of monetary policy normalizationyen’s weakness, along with Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in September are factors favouring a rate rise next week, not waiting until laterMUFG expect

Snippet via HSBC on likely potential tailwinds for stockmarkets globally in this second half the year. Analysts at the bank say their discussion with clients indicate to much attention being paid to downside risks, and overlooking 5 key potential triggers for higher prices yet to come: Earnings reports remain positiveThe ‘Goldilocks macroeconomic landscape to underpin

Judo Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for July 2024 While manufacturing is up a touch, services is down. Composite (reflecting both) is down. Not a great report. Comments from the report, Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank, in brief: Flash PMI report is an early read on Australia’s economy in July

USD/JPY is up from its late US/early Asia lows under 155.60. We haven’t seen news headlines out of Japan apart from the data: Japan flash PMIs (July): Manufacturing 49.2 (prior 50.0) Services 53.9 (prior 49.4) This data is not usually much of a yen mover, and today is no different. The bounce back happened well

Based on the earnings results of companies reporting on 23 July 2024 (AMC), here’s a summary focusing on the moves made by these companies and their possible impact on the overall market indices such as SPX and NDX. Emphasis is placed on the most popular companies and brands that are likely to influence market sentiment.

Crude oil futures are settling at $76.96. That is down $-1.44 or -1.84%. The price moved to a 6-week low (lowest since June 7)and fell for the 4th consecutive day. The price moved down close to 8% from the high last Wednesday. Later today, the private oil inventory data will be released ahead of the

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: – Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.6mn barrelsDistillates +0.2mn bblsGasoline -0.4mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD trended lower after tries above the 200-hour MA earlier in the session and yesterday could not sustain upside momentum.Buyers turned to sellers. The move lower took the price from near 1.0900 to a low today of 1.0843. That low got within 4 pip of the key 38.2% retracement. After a trend move higher

Russian news outlet Interfax had the comments from Novak on Tuesday: “We have nearly reached it [the required level of oil output within OPEC+]. We are close to it. We have somewhat ‘underperformed’ the target at full volume, so to speak,” said that the Energy Ministry would send the OPEC Secretariat a schedule for offsetting

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

France President Macron: The outgoing majority has lost elections, but the French wanted non-far right to work togetherWhen asked about left-wing alliance PM candidate, Macron says issue of the moment is not about names.Neither left-wing alliance nor outgoing majority can apply their program.Urges political parties in parliament to work together to reach compromises during the

As expected, Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Jeffries officially endorse VP Harris as the Democratic nominee for President. The money has been flowing into the Harris coffers with $140M raised since Sunday. As a comparison Biden raised $96M up until July. Meanwhile, over at Trump headquarters, after the assassination attempt, it was

Politico is reporting that Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Jeffries are to officially endorse Harris for president at a 1 PM press conference: Late yesterday Harris secured the necessary delegates for the Democratic nomination. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US treasury auctions off $69 billion at a high yield of 4.434% High yield 4.434%Tail -2.3 basis points vs six month average of 0.2 basis pointsBid to cover 2.81X vs six month average of 2.58X. Best since August 2023Direct (a measure o domestic demand) 14.42% versus six month average of 21.0%. Weakest since Jan of

The US stocks are open and the major indices are modest the lower/higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average -56 points or -0.15% at 40352S&P index -4.42 points or -0.07% at 5560.30nanoseconds -36 points or -0.20% at 17971 The RUSSELL 2000 is down -12.08 points are -0.54% at 2208.51 After

Crude oil continues its run to the downside. The price is now down for the 4th consecutive days. Since reaching a high price of $83.10 on Wednesday of last week, the price has moved down nearly 8%. Technically, the price fell below its 200-day moving average on Friday. Today the high corrective price reached $78.73.

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Dynamics Investors and traders continue to navigate a patchwork of performance across various sectors in today’s trading session. A look at the latest stock market heatmap provides valuable insights into sector leaders and laggards, informing strategies in a market characterized by mixed sentiments. Technology and Semiconductors: A Mixed Picture Semiconductors

In this video, I take a look at two currency pairs – the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Both are trending lower this week as traders react to slower growth from China. Both countries do rely on China for growth. For the AUDUSD, it is breaking lower but approaching key support against it rising 100-day moving average

As the market awaits the Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow, the USDCAD has moved higher in anticipation of a cut in rates. Also helping the pair is sharply lower oil prices which has take the price down nearly 8% from the high reached last Wednesday (today the price bounced off of $76.40). Technically, the

In the kickstart video for July 23, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it traded up and down yesterday and tried to get back above its 200-hour moving average (green line), but could not find any upside momentum on the breaks above. As a result, buyers turned

Reuters Poll Summary: 70 of 100 economists anticipate a 25 basis points cut in the federal funds rate in both September and December, compared to 58 of 116 in June.73 of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2024. 13 say 25 bps in 2024. 3 see no

Fundamental Overview The USD regained some strength in latter part of last week. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a back-to-back cut in November. The data continues to suggest that the

The closing bell rings, and the tech sector/small cap stocks lead the way higher in tandem with each other today. Last week, the Russell outperformed vs the NASDAQ on a rotation out to high cap tech into the small cap stock sector. . Both the NASDAQ and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose by around 1.6%

Silver hangs on at the June lows for nowDollar keeps on firmer footing following last week’s advanceAUD/USD looks poised for longest losing streak since August last yearJapanese yen continues to find bids in the early stages this weekEuropean equities open in a more mixed mood to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?ECB’s

Tom Lee is Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and head of research. Spoke with CNBC on Monday. He is expecting inflation data from the US due on Friday (PCE) to be cooler. “One print can be uncertain, but I think the forces underway for inflation to fall like a rock are in place”there do not seem

The major European indices are ending the day with mixed results. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.77%France CAC, -0.31%UK FTSE 100 -0.38%Spain’s Ibex, +0.61%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.07% Benchmark 10 year yields or trading modestly lower: As London/European traders had for the exits, the major US stock indices are trading higher: Dow

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Manufacturing index -17 vs. -7 expected and -10 prior.Services index 5 vs. -11 prior.Manufacturing shipments index -21 vs. -9 prior. Fifth District manufacturing activity worsened in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −10 in June to −17 in July. Of its

China’s loan collateral tweak will ease ‘asset famine’US Q2 GDP data is due Thursday – Goldman Sachs expect +2.3%The AUD and the easing from China – given more a nudge lowerUS Vice President Harris has just passed 1,976 Delegates.PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1334 (vs. estimate at 7.2746)Deutsche Bank expect further losses still

Diving into the world of financial markets, investors are often faced with the choice between Forex and Futures trading. Both avenues offer unique opportunities and come with their own sets of risks and rewards. Understanding the key differences between these two types of trading can help investors make more informed decisions. But which trading option

The retreat comes again as we get to the handover from Asia to Europe, somewhat similar to yesterday. Sellers are staying interested with price action keeping below the broken trendline support (white line) as seen below: The 100-day moving average (red line) at 155.31 currently will be a key downside target to watch. Looking at

Ufunded.com has opened its futuristic headquarters in the heart of Dubai, spanning across a third of an entire floor in the prestigious Opus Tower, designed by the legendary Zaha Hadid. The new headquarters reflect Hadid’s futuristic vision and align seamlessly with Ufunded.com’s disruptive ethos. Overlooking the expansive Dubai skyline in 360°, including iconic landmarks such

. 1.32 million units Prior month 4.11Mexisting home sales -5.4% versus -0.7% last monthinventory at 4.1 months vs 3.7 months prior or 1.32 million unitsMedian price $426,900 which is up 4.1% from June 2023 (record high)These are closed sales when rates were above 7%Average days is 22 (down from 24 days) but up from 18

The orchestra arrangement is continuing: Schumer and Jeffries are to meet with Harris shortly. So rather than be the first to endorse, they will do their due diligence with a one-on-one and then come out together and unified. Does Harris come out with them for a photo-op, for the “hand in hand raised” opportunity? I

The PPI data from South Korea is due at 2100 GMT / 1700 GMT and that’s about for the data agenda in the Asian timezone today. Europe time will bring a speech from European Central Bank’s Lane. Nothin’. Nothin’ at all! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -14.0consumer confidence -13 versus -13.4 estimate The confidence levels are moving higher (although still negative), and is also moving closer to the EU long term average (see chart above). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resigns according to sources. The move comes after intense questioning from House Oversight Committee members yesterday harshly criticizing the director related to the recent assassination attempt on former Pres. Donald Trump. During her testimony yesterday, she acknowledged significant and colossal security failures at the rally. One rallygoer died from

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady retreat since hitting a new all-time high last Wednesday. We saw a reversal in many other markets since last Wednesday and it’s not clear what has been behind the move. The data continues to point to a resilient economy with inflation falling slowly back to target. That

The US broader indices are trading at at session highs. The gains are led by the NASDAQ and the switch is currently up 114 points or 0.64%. At session lows, the price approached its rising 200 hour moving average, but found early buyers against at that level. That kept the buyers and control. There is

Amongst concerns TD ennumerate on gold are: discretionary trader positioning “remains bloated” (to the long side), which means positioning risks are now asymmetrically skewed to the downsidefroth above and beyond what is consistent with expectations of Fed cutsAsia on a buyer’s strikenotable long liquidations on Shanghai Futures Exchange TD says a “a liquidity vacuum could

Via CNBC, thoughts from Deutsche Bank on further losses still to come for large cap tech stocks: rotation away from big tech into small caps that happened will be more than a short-term blipmarket is still pricing in too much optimism about the growth areas of the market that have led most of the bull

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.3% This comes as US futures are seen down slightly at the balance as well. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down by 0.3% currently. That is not making much for traders to work with as the session

The USDCHF waffled up and down during yesterday’s trade, but late yesterday early today, the price did find support buyers against its 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement near 0.8883.That was “the tell” for traders, and the buyers entered. The price has since moved higher and extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move

South Korean Producer Price Index for June 2024: -0.1% m/m prior +0.1% +2.5% y/y prior +2.3% The Bank of Korea is eyeing rising inflation but there are signs it’ll begin to fall from August. SK’s finance minister is thinking the same – says inflation may temporarily rebound higher in Julyu, it should stabilise from Augsyt.

After having hit its highest since the opening day in January, the pair has seen quite a pullback in the last week. The drop after nearly touching the 0.6800 mark now sees the pair down 2.5% from its high on 11 July. And the pair looks poised for a seventh straight day of losses now:

On the economic calendar today: Consumer confidence flash estimate for July (10 AM ET): Estimate -13.4 versus -14.0 last month.Existing home sales for June (10 AM ET): Est. 4.00M vs 4.11M last month.Richmond Fed index for July (10 AM ET): Last month -10. Services index -11 last month The U.S. Treasury will auction the 2-year

Media reports that US Vice President Harris has just passed 1,976 Delegates. That’s a magic number, it means she is the Democratic Party’s Presumptive Nominee for November’s Presidential Election. The formalities of a vote are yet to take place of course, but with that number of delegates she appears to have it locked in. This

As the North American session begins, the JPY continues its move to the upside, while the AUD is the weakest of the majors. the USD is higher vs most currency pairs but is lower vs the JPY. The USDJPY corrected higher yesterday in the US session but once the price reached the 100 hour MA,

German DAX futures +0.3%French CAC 40 futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.3% US futures are a touch lower though, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures down 0.3%. That is making for more of a pensive start to European morning trade. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined in July, as reported by the firms in the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Key indicators such as general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues turned negative. The full-time employment index also suggested a decline in employment. Both price indexes showed continued overall price

Analyst says the “forces underway for inflation to fall like a rock are in place”The closing bell rings and the tech sector/small cap stocks lead the way in tandemCrude oil futures settle at $79.78Israel PM Netanyahu and US Pres. Biden meeting postponed until Wednesday/ThursdayMore on Schumer and Jeffries: Are due to meet with Harris shortlyCNN:

The Japanese yen is on its own at the front to start the week but the dollar is also seen holding slightly firmer now as after a short period of consolidation since Friday. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are down 0.3% to 1.0860 and 1.2895 respectively, touching their lowest levels since 11 July. The latter looks

Despite the sharp fall since last week, silver is still hanging in there in July trading. On the month itself, the precious metal is now down by 0.3% after erasing its monthly gains in the last five trading days. Price is now currently trading around $29.05, down 0.4% on the day. Still, buyers are not

There were a string of policy easings from the People’s Bank of China yesterday, summarised here: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China Via UBS on the Bank’s rate cuts: The decision of the People’s Bank of China to cut rates by 0.1 percentage point was perhaps

Will look particularly closely at wage developmentsCurrent level of uncertainty is huge, so have to be prudent when taking decisions The comments don’t add anything to the prevailing outlook. They’ve already said before July that they will defer their next “live” decision to September, so this just continues that. This article was written by Justin

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US CPI report. The goldilocks data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big cap stocks into the small cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their small cap hedges as

Fundamental Overview The USD regained some strength in latter part of last week. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a back-to-back cut in November. The data continues to suggest that the

0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time, European Central Bank chief economist and board member Philip Lane will be giving opening remarks at a joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review “Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy” in Frankfurt, Germany This article was written by

JP Morgan considers the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting to be a close call but leans towards the BoC holding rates steady. Governor Macklem has previously emphasized a gradual easing approach to avoid jeopardizing progress on inflation. Recent data showing reacceleration in core inflation and wage firming, despite some labor market softening, suggests a

Via IONG on the EUR ahead. Not seeing a volatile period for now. euro could fall if European data this week support the case for ECB interest-rate cuts – say to watch of business sentiment is weaker, which would shape a story that policy is too tighteuro falls will be limitedvolatility remains “exceptionally low” a

If yesterday was a boring day on the data front, today is no different. We don’t have any notable event as we will just get some low tier releases like the Eurozone Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Index. As a reminder, we won’t hear from Fed speakers until the FOMC meeting next week as

Yesterday the People’s Bank of China lowered the collateral requirement for medium-term loans: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it would lower the collateral requirement for the medium-term lending facility (MLF) loan to increase the size of tradable bonds

I posted last week on Macquarie pointing to populist economic policies as “inflationary by design“, and that the Fed’s easing cycle may be shallower than presumed: while US inflation may continue to stay low in the next few months and allow the Fed to start easing in September, once ‘popunomics’ is invoked, inflation will be

Amid a lack of events on the economic calendar, the Japanese yen has been a decent mover to start the week thus far. After the gains yesterday, we are seeing a further advance today with USD/JPY now down 0.6% to near 156.00 on the day. AUD/JPY in particular is suffering the most, down another 1%

Scanning here comments there isn’t much of relevance for markets yet: gun laws – universal background checks, assault weapons banwill support Congress passing reproductive freedom laws Yeah, nothing on economic policy in this speech, but a heads up if you are interested. Harris vs. Trump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs have been concerned about the US economy drifting along in H1 but have been encouraged by recent retail sales and industrial production data. GS now expect Q2 GDP growth at 2.3% (annualised) “Our estimate implies that GDP grew at a 1.9% annualized pace in 2024H1 and domestic final sales grew at a 2.3%

Toshimitsu Motegi is Secretary-General of Japan’s ruling party the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Report via the Nikkei that he thinks Bank of Japan policy should be made clearer. I know a couple of thousand traders who agree with him. — The Bank of Japan meet on July 30 and 31 where they are expected to

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment might be more muted in the European session as we await US markets to open again later. In that lieu, even then equities and the broader risk mood might be more cautious today considering that we have Alphabet and

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

It hasn’t been a quiet summer for markets so far but the start of this week sort of embodies the typical summer lull that we have been accustomed to over the years. And we have an empty calendar day, more or less, to thank for that. Similar to yesterday, there won’t be any major releases

A snippet from WPAC on the Australian dollar, in brief for the week ahead: AUD might find support from a likely very benign US June PCE this week, reinforcing September Fed rate cut pricing, while Biden dropping out of the US presidential race likely stymies the rush to bullish-USD Trump trades for the time being.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars have been on the soft side. Yesterday’s easings from the People’s Bank of China not bolstering them either. The summary of the PBOC is here ICYMI: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China NAB comments via Reuters report: “For the Aussie

CNN is now reporting that Sen. Majority leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Jeffries will endorse VP Harris as soon as today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters have the report, citing The U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission has told at least two of the eight firms that have applied to launch the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the price of ether that their products can begin trading on Tuesday. Products from BlackRock, VanEck and six others will begin trading

Crude oil futures settled at $79.78. That’s down $0.35 or -0.44% The low today reached $77.55. The high price was at $79.13. The drop was the third consecutive down day. Political uncertainty following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 election contibuted. The settlement was the lowest since June 14. The declines also

A better showing for this indicator of consumer sentiment in Australia. Comes in this week at 84.4 a 6 month highprior 78.5 The 5.9 point rise is the largest rise in a week since April 2021 ANZ says: Each of the subindices rose by at least 5pts AUD/USD is little changed around 0.6643 This article

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US presidential election, so far, has had significant implications for trade, prompting swings across markets. PIMCO with the timely warning: In what has been a series of stranger than fiction events – from the disaster of the debate to the assassination attempt of former President Trump to the first time an incumbent president is

The meeting between Israeli PM Netanyahu and US Pres. Biden is to be postponed until Wednesday and perhaps Thursday, depending on the president’s health. Biden has Covid and is doing well, but has been absent from the public. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The broader US indices are trading to new at session highs. For the S&P index it just reached a new high of 5569.19. That is just 2-3 points short of the 100-hour moving average at 5571.79.. Getting and staying above that moving average would tilt the technical bias more to the upside. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq

The major stock indices are moving higher at the US open. The gains are led by the NASDAQ with a gain of 1.30%. That has taken the price of the Nasdaq index, back above its 200 hour moving average at 17914.20. If the price can stay above that level, it would be a shift back

Former House Speaker (and stock picker extraordinaire), Nancy Pelosi endorses VP Harris for Presidential nominee. This is according to Punchbowl reporter on X. My enthusiastic support for camel Harris for president is official, personal, and politicalPolitically it makes no mistake: Harris as a woman in politics is brilliantly astute – and I have a full

The major European indices are closing the session with gains. The gains are led by the German DAX which closed up 1.35% on the day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +1.35%France CAC, +1.18%UK FTSE 100 +0.62%Spain’s Ibex +0.59%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.12% As European traders look to end the trading day, US

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 62 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 42 bps (62% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoE: 46 bps (56% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoC: 62 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) RBNZ: 70 bps

In the kickstart video, I outlined how if the USDJPY continued to move higher, the 100 hour MA needs to hold resistance. Looking at the price action on Friday and again today, the ups and downs ignored the MA line. Today’s break lower, did find more selling momentum. Sellers made a stronger play. Now with

The NZDUSD has continued its run lower (SEE CHART ABOVE) started last week after the pair initially found resistance against its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (higher blue line at 0.6082 at the time), 100-day moving average at 0.6060, 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low at 0.60363Downward sloping

The Michigan governor Gretchen Witmer is saying that she will not be the VP nominee. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks are set to open higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way. Recall from last week, the NASDAQ index had its worst training week since April 15, falling by -3.65%. The S&P index fell by -1.97%, but the rotation sent the Dow industrial average up 0.72%. The Russell 2000 also advanced last

Headlines: USD/JPY slides lower ahead of European morning tradeUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Keep an eye on this important resistanceECB’s Kažimír: Market pricing of two rate cuts by year-end is not entirely misplacedBundesbank calls for rate cuts to be “carefully considered” as inflation risk persistsPBOC lowers standing lending facility rates by 10 bpsSNB total sight deposits

Earlier from the People’s Bank of China: PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80% *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi

Today’s US Stock Market Overview Today’s US stock market showcases a robust performance in the tech sector, with noticeable gains from key players. This sturdy performance comes amidst a backdrop of mixed sentiments in other sectors, evidencing a dynamic trading landscape ready for strategic investments. Sector Spotlight Technology Sector: The technology sector is looking particularly

The USDCHF is trading up and down in a confined range. The price action is above and below the low for a swing area at 0.88808 and the 200-day MA at 0.8883. The 38.2% of the move up from the December 2023 low is also in play withing the swing area at 0.8883. Although the

We are Day 1 of the transition to a new Dem candidate for President after Biden stepped down from his run for President yesterday. Assuming VP Kamala Harris is the nominee, who might be her VP running mate? That choice will most likely be from one of the key swing states.. Those key states include,

Biden is feeling betterLegacy of Biden accomplishment is unmatched in modern history Meanwhile, billionaire Michael Bloomberg is putting support behind the Dems and says: Democrats now have a chance for fresh start, have four weeks to take pulse of the voters before the convention starts. Initial thoughts that WV Sen. Manchin would make a run

Reuters with the info, and the worrisome headline: China hedge funds brace for upheaval from tough new rules In brief: China’s $715 billion hedge fund industry is facing renewed pressure from stringent regulations coming into effect next month, forcing some investment firms to seek fresh capital from white knights or even shut shop. New guidelines

This week is going to be pretty boring on the data front as the calendar is kind of bare. Today the only notable event was the PBoC rate decision and the central bank surprised with cuts across many key benchmarks. We won’t hear from Fed speakers until the FOMC meeting next week as they are

The People’s Bank of China has cut one- and five-year loan primce rates. The one-year rate has been cut to 3.35% prior 3.45% The five-year rate has been cut to 3.85% prior 3.95% Earlier: PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80%PBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans

Social media, and traditional media reporting a sum in excess of USD50mn has been donated to the Democrats. One of the key concerns of the party was the drying up donations under an incumbent President deemed unfit to run. That seems to have been reversed now. This election looks like a contest again. This article

New Zealand trade balance for June 2024 NZD/USD little changed on the data. NZD has been bid up early in the week on the political news. ‘Risk’ FX on the move higher now as confidence returns This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The kickstart video each day looks at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective. Those 3 pairs include the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. To start the trading week, the price action is mostly up-and-down in those three major currency pairs. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved higher but fell just short of its resistance target

The calendar for the FX market is light in terms of scheduled events on Monday and Tuesday. On Tuesday, traders will be monitoring the U.S. existing home sales data and the Richmond manufacturing index. On Wednesday, the focus shifts to flash services PMI and flash manufacturing PMI for Australia, Japan, the eurozone, the U.K., and

Fundamental Overview The USD regained some strength in latter part of last week. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a back-to-back cut in November. The data continues to suggest that the

No need to rush decisionsData will set the stage for September decisionThe door remains open to additional easing should conditions warrant it The ECB narrative now is that they would want to cut rates further but are going to let the data in the coming weeks to decide that. Not much of a change to

The People’s Bank of China cut policy rates today: China cuts 1 and 5 year loan prime rates by 10 basis points eachPBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80%the PBOC last lowered the seven-day rate in August 2023, when it cut the MLF also. Noth were cut by 10bp. PBOC

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% This comes as US futures are also holding up, with S&P 500 futures seen higher by 0.2%. Despite the early optimism, US trading is a different ball game though as we saw last week. Besides that, traders will also have to

Some of the factors supporting the economy are making it more difficult to achieve inflation targetThe labour markets is still operating at a high capacityWage growth is brisk and prices are rising strongly, particularly in the services sectorPossible further interest rate cuts should therefore be carefully considered in light of current data Besides that, they

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed after the weekend news of the Pres. Biden stepping down and endorsement of Kamala Harris as the Presidential candidate. Can she turn the Dem story and negative momentum around? Who will be her VP candidate

Domestic sight deposits CHF 452.9 bn vs CHF 450.3 bn prior Swiss sight deposits rose slightly in the past week but is keeping thereabouts within the range in the weeks before. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks will be looking to bounce back after a bit of a hiccup last week. Tech shares saw its worst showing since April with the Nasdaq erasing its monthly gains for July. So far today, we are seeing a calmer mood but it is still early in the day. S&P 500 futures are up

1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time will bring Bank of England’s Executive Director, Markets, Victoria Saporta. Speaking at AFME seminar ‘The future Bank of England balance sheet – managing its transition towards a new system for supplying reserves’ will discuss the Bank’s latest thinking on the future of its balance sheet, and how it

In case you missed it: It’s finally JoeverPBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80%China cuts 1 and 5 year loan prime rates by 10 basis points eachPBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans Joe Biden officially drops out of the presidential race and has endorsed Kamala Harris

Fundamental Overview Copper experienced a strong rout last week with market participants blaming the soft Chinese economic data and the increase in inventories in most global warehouses suggesting some weak demand. The PBoC tonight surprised with rate cuts across many key benchmarks. Moreover, the recent PBoC policy framework reform suggests that the Chinese officials could

The report cites three sources familiar with the matter. And it pertains to Nvidia’s “Blackwell” chip series, which was unveiled during March. The chip is due to be mass produced later this year with the sources saying Nvidia will work with Inspur, who is one of the firm’s major distributors in China, on the launch

The trade for the days ahead looks to be some unwinding of the ‘Trump trade’ we saw since Biden performed poorly in the debate a couple of weeks ago. When the prospect of a Trump second term rose traders and investors focused on: the likely increase in US debt, fiscal and inflationary pressuresstocks benefitting from

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin rallied strongly last week after a failed attempt to assassinate the former US President Trump. The market reacted positively to the event because he’s been a supporter of the crypto industry and Trump’s odds of winning the election soared. Last night, the price of Bitcoin dipped on the news that Biden dropped

Justin was lightning fast with the breaking news on Sunday afternoon US time: It’s finally Joever Major FX rates are little changed on the political news, minor wiggles for major FX only. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices

Fundamental Overview The PBoC tonight surprised with rate cuts across many key benchmarks. It’s no secret that rate cuts are generally positive for stocks, but the question will be if it’s going to be enough for a sustained rally after the big correction from the cycle high set on May 20th. The recent PBoC policy

This continues with their moves from earlier: PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80%China cuts 1 and 5 year loan prime rates by 10 basis points eachPBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China: To lower collateral requirements for medium term lending facility loans from julyThe move is meant to increase the size of tradable bonds in the marketMove is to alleviate pressure on supply and demand of bonds in the market PBOC is wading in to easing, this from earlier: PBoC announces cut to

I posted the bleary-eyed super-early rates here: Monday morning open levels, indicative FX rates 22July2024, little change from late Friday Just updating now after the huge political news on Sunday from the US, Biden has dropped out of the presidential election: It’s finally Joever Its still very early here in Asia, just before 7 am

The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and ends the Thursday following the decision (decisions are always on Wednesdays). That was on the

People’s Bank of China has cut its interest rate for the 7-day reverse report to 1.7% from 1.8% PBOC will strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment to “better support the real economy” The rate cut is, at the margin, a headwind for yuan … but the strengthening of the counter cyclical adjustment is the opposite! The rate

EUR, NZD, GBP, CAD and eyn are all weakening against the USD. AUD takes the cake though, its under its late Friday low. Ranges are not huge but for the Asian time zone are notable: Political news has dominated. However, market news centres on the People’s Bank of China and its easing today: China cuts

As forex markets get a little more liquidity the buying of risk has come in. Its still early, just after: 8.30 am in Sydney10.30 am in New Zealand7.30 am in Tokyo6.30 am in Singapore and Hong Kong Still, Globes is open on the CME so we have futures trade underway. ES and NQ are both

The People’s Bank of China has cut rates: PBoC announces cut to 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80% And have also eased MLF requirements: PBOC to lower collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting is due at 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time). The cuts we have

The People’s Bank of China announces the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday, 22 July 2024. The announcement is usually on the 20th, but since that was on Saturday it’ll be today instead. Last week we had the monthly Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) setting: The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate

The pair had been holding steadier around 157.30-50 levels in Asia before easing slightly to 157.00 just about a half hour ago. The break under the figure level seems to be triggering some stops amid a quick fall to 156.50 on the day. This cuts back some of the bounce last Thursday, with the pair

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% It’s still early in the day and on the week itself, European indices will be eyeing earnings from the big banks. Spain’s Santander and France’s BNP Paribas will be reporting on Wednesday, alongside Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Italy’s UniCredit. US futures are also calmer, with S&P 500 futures

Bank of England Executive Director, Markets, speak Monday on its balance sheetThe money taps have been turned on again for the Democrats since Biden’s announcementPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1335 (vs. estimate at 7.2624)China cuts 1 and 5 year loan prime rates by 10 basis points eachPBOC cut 7-day rates, eased

There are a couple of large ones in the likes of EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. However, they are all unlikely to feature as they are quite a distance away from the spot price currently. As such, the expiries should have no impact on price action with the focus to start the new week being on

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The not unexpected weekend news, a bombshell nonetheless. Justin all over it Sudnay US time: It’s finally Joever Market response has been subdued, the latest: Via twitter, the latest odds: There are over 100 days until the election, and the Democrat convention is a month away, where we will learn who their nominee is. But,

Via Reuters: All 50 Democratic party state chairs have thrown their weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris to be the party’s new presidential nominee, according to sources familiar with the matter. The Democratic nomination is still a month away. *** US President Biden removed himself from the race for the 2024 election. It was not

Globex has opened for trade, brought to you by the CME! The big news markets are responding to is the withdrawal of US President Biden from the 2024 presidential election. Justin was all over the weekend news as it happened! It’s finally Joever The USD is little changed, EUR/USD is circa 1.0886 and USD/JPY circa

The decision has been coming for a few weeks already and Biden has now made it official. There was a sense that he could’ve stuck in there until the Democratic National Convention in August. But alas, the sense of realism has finally taken over Biden and his camp. This was his statement on Twitter/X: “My

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC LPR.Wednesday: Japan/Australia/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, BoC Policy Decision.Thursday: US Durable Goods Orders, US Jobless Claims, US Q2 Advance GDP.Friday: Tokyo CPI, US PCE. Monday The PBoC is expected to keep the LPR rates unchanged at 3.45% for the 1-year and 3.95% for the 5-year. The central bank left the MLF rate unchanged

Week Ahead 22nd-26th July: Mon: PBoC LPRTue: NBH Policy Announcement; US Existing Home Sales (Jun), Richmond Fed (Jul), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul)Wed: BoC Policy Announcement & MPR; Japanese Flash PMIs (Jul), German GfK (Aug), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Jul)Thu: CBR Announcement, CBRT Announcement; EZ M3 (Jun), German Ifo (Jul), US Durable Goods

The oil market has been in a tough spot. The macro is deteriorating and hopes for Chinese stimulus are fading. At the same time, all the data out of Russian and OPEC show a surprising drop in exports. That’s led to a real push-and-pull in the market including a big jump on Wednesday and a

Canada May retail sales -0.8% vs -0.6% expectedBiden’s family has started discussing his exit plan – reportCanada industrial product prices for June 0.0% vs 0.2% expectedFed’s Williams: Central banks must own the inflation-control missionAdd Dem Senator Heinrich to the ranks of “It is time to quit Joe”… and more.Crowdstrike CEO: Many customers rebooting systems, could

The bond market is usually the first to figure things out but even it’s struggling with the political turmoil and economic uncertainty right now. Notably, long dated Treasury yields jumped in the immediate aftermath of the debate on June 28 in a signal about a Republican sweep coupled with further tax cut and a deficit

FTSE China A50 Index Futures: A practical guide for investors The FTSE China A50 Index Futures (ticker: XIN9) are a vital tool for international investors aiming to tap into China’s vibrant A-share market. Traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), these futures mirror the performance of the 50 largest A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and

The People’s Bank of China announces the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday, The announcement is usually on the 20th, but since that’s Saturday it’ll be on Monday instead. Earlier this week we had the monthly Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) setting: The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%,

The bad news is that it was the worst week for the Nasdaq since April. The good news is that after the sharp correction in April, the market recovered quickly. Today’s price action was influenced by $2.7 trillion in options expiring including $555 billion in single stocks. It was the largest-ever July month expiration and

Credit Agricole sees GBP as one of the best-performing G10 currencies, despite recent setbacks due to returning risk aversion and stickier-than-expected UK inflation. The GBP’s relative strength is attributed to expectations that the BoE will maintain rates, reinforcing its status as a top performer in the G10 FX space. Key Points: Recent Performance: End of

Where do you hide today? Bonds are downMegacap tech is downStocks are down across the boardGold is downCommodities are all down, including 3% in oil Full credit to anyone who bought bitcoin, which is up 4.6% today and has had a nice rally from the Mt. Gox headlines early this month. But for 95% of

Late selling led to the STOXX 600 closing near the session lows and also at the lowest closing level since May 6. It was five straight days of declines in a 2.9% decline on the week. Closing changes on the day: German DAX -1.0%France CAC -0.8%UK FTSE 100 -0.7%Spain’s IBEX -0.8%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.0% This

Overnight Crowdstrike uploaded an update that crashed Microsoft products and in turn many businesses. I am still having some issues with my technology. Crowdstrike shares are down -10.60% at $306.40. At least the stock is off the low at $290.10. Meanwhile, the major indices have moved to new lows in the current hourly bar. Dow

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely on the same key drivers from the day before mostly. The dollar saw recovery flows yesterday with yields pushing higher, so that will remain in contention in the session ahead. Besides that, the overall risk mood is

The selling in US equities were more widespread today and came with a healthy bit of intrigue about President Biden’s future. Dow Industrial Average average -1.3%S&P 500 index -0.8%NASDAQ Comp -0.7%Russell 2000 -1.9%Toronto TSX Comp -0.5% The numbers aren’t pretty but all indexes closed modestly above the session lows, in part due to some late

The AUDUSD is lower this week, but as the week works toward the close, the AUDUSD is running into a cluster of support as the week moves toward the close. The area comes in between 0.6676 and 0.6689. I targeted this area in the post from Wednesday saying: A break… could lead to another multi-technical

Market mosaic: Navigating through a mixed performance landscape Today’s stock market presents a vibrant tapestry of performances across various sectors, illustrated vividly in the latest heatmap snapshot. As markets oscillate, understanding sectoral dynamics becomes crucial for informed investment strategies. 📉 Technology Sector: A close scrutiny The technology sector shows a divergent performance with Microsoft (MSFT)

NBC reports that Biden’s family has specifically discussed how he wants to end his campaign, including the timing. They cite sources. Biden’s family members have specifically discussed how he would want to end his re-election bid on his own timing and with a carefully calculated plan in place. Considerations about the impact of the campaign

I’m curious to hear exact what this ‘new era’ looks like because I strongly suspect it will be just like the old era where central banks are behind the curve and forecast poorly. Fingers crossed that the ‘new era’ isn’t the same old talking points about high and sticky inflation. In terms of monetary policy,

It is just about everywhere and the Australian government has even called an emergency meeting amid the whole fiasco. Trading brokerages are also impacted but that hasn’t stopped the selling in the meantime. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.3% on the day with Nasdaq futures down 0.5%. Microsoft shares in Frankfurt are also down

At some point on Wednesday, it looked like the dollar was bound to break down further. But a strong reversal yesterday is setting up for a continued move today, with the greenback keeping steadier across the board thus far. Of note, GBP/USD is facing a strong rejection after a brief push above the 1.3000 mark

The USDCAD has climbed higher during the North American session following weaker-than-expected retail sales earlier today. This, coupled with a weaker CPI earlier this week, sets the stage for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada next week (Wednesday). Technically, the price has broken above a downward sloping trendline, maintaining the bullish trend established

Chinese Communist Party Third Plenum has concluded. The news conference with some details, I don’t expect too many, is due at 10am Beijing time 0200 GMT2200 US Eastern time The property sector has been a huge, and prolonged, drag on the economy. More support measures are likely. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Headlines: Global tech outages impact markets at the European openTech shares fall as global IT outage greets Europe in the morningMicrosoft says underlying issue causing the tech outage has been resolvedECB’s Villeroy: market expectations on rates seem rather reasonableECB’s Muller: It’s important not to pre-commit on SeptemberECB’s Šimkus: I agree with markets which sees two

Via analysts at JP Morgan Private Bank, an outlook for the BoJ and yen. The TL;DR version is: A July hike from the BoJ is not our base case, nor do we expect a hike for the rest of 2024.Its too early to turn bullish on the yen More: JPMy can see arguments the BoJ

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a notable upward price trend, fueled by significant exchange outflows and bullish sentiment, with many eyeing the $72,000 mark as a potential target. This article focuses on the technical factors driving this trend and explores emerging opportunities in the crypto market such as the Minotaurus ($MTAUR) presale. Bitcoin (BTC) on the

The “calls to quit” line gets longer with Dem Senator Heinrich, and then you watch GOP Nominee Trump ramble and ramble in his acceptance speech when he had a chance to unite. SMH. Anyone one candidate is nominated. The Dems convention is not until August 19-22. Will Biden step down this weekend? PS Meanwhile, Biden

You would expect gold to benefit with global computers crashing but that’s not the case today. Commodities are struggling across the board as profit taking hits hard. Gold is down nearly 2% and silver is down 3.3% as this week’s breakout fails. It’s now down on the week and if we finish like this then

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. UK retail sales was weaker overnight (-1.2% versus -0.6% estimate) The big news is the global downage as a result of a software update at Crowdstrike that then impacted Microsoft (and others) grounded airlines and impacted many businesses

Representatives Jared Huffman of California, Marc Veasey of Texas, Mark Pocan of Wisconsin and Jesus “Chuy” Garcia of Illinois issued a joint letter to Mr. Biden on Friday morning saying: “It is now time for you to pass the torch to a new generation of Democratic leaders… “We must face the reality that widespread public

The major US indices continue to see changes in flows. Today, the Dow and the Russell 2000 are down. The S&P and NASDAQ indices are higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average -240 points or -0.58% at 40425S&P index up 3.14 points or 0.05% at 5547.70NASDAQ up +38.83 points or

Fed remains committed to achieving the 2% inflation targetPrice stability is key to financial stabilityLonger run trends affecting R-star are still in place The comments are slowly rolling out, it doesn’t appear there is a text of the speech released. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

BNP Paribas says its remaining bearish on EUR” ‘prior to the French parliamentary election being called we held a bearish view on the EUR’says that the outcome of the French election reinforces the case for EURUSD to drop ‘towards our year-end target of 1.06’see 1.10 in 2025 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The USDCHF has continued to rebound from its session lows earlier this week, and in doing so, it has moved back above the 200-day moving average (MA) and the broken 38.2% retracement level. However, it is currently encountering resistance around the falling 100-hour MA near 0.8900, which aligns closely with the high of a recent

Prior was +0.7% (revised to +0.6%)Ex autos -1.3% vs -0.5% expectedPrior ex-autos +1.8% (revised to +1.7%)Ex autos and gasoline -1.4% vs +1.4% prior Largest decrease in sales was at food and beverage retailers (-1.9%)Lower sales in May were also reported at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-2.7%) and general merchandise retailers (-1.0%)Preliminary

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data led to a strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general weakness across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a soft landing. The

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data led to a strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general weakness across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a soft landing.

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US CPI report as the index had its best 5 days streak in 24 years. The goldilocks data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big cap stocks into the small cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated

Major US exchanges are set to open normally today and say they’re not affected by the Crowdstrike outage. I fear secondary effects. So much of the liquidity in global markets is powered by algos and if those are affected or shut off as a precaution today then bid-ask spreads could blow out. ZeroHedge reports that

Fed emergency lending programs have been effectiveAll eligible banks should be prepared for the discount window This doesn’t relate to monetary policy and isn’t a market mover but it’s critical that the Fed gets this right ahead of the next crisis (whenever it is). This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The cause pointed out by Microsoft was that there was a flawed update of CrowdStrike program that took down its systems. That has resulted in massive IT failures and outages across the globe, hindering services and businesses all around. CrowdStrike did also earlier say that they had deployed a fix to the issue while confirming

In the kickstart video for July 19th, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD has moved down continuing the decline from yesterday, and in the process tested its rising 200 hour moving average at 1.08794. That moving average will be a key barometer on

The Crowdstrike outage is continuing and we have some details from the CEO who spoke with NBC: Says only Microsoft operating system is affectedWe are working with every customer to bring them back onlineIssue has been resolved, now issue is recovering systemsFull interview This is a real mess. Crowdstrike shares have been a market darling

The US dollar has popped. But gold has dropped. Correlation is not necessarily causation. There is no other fresh news about. The reports are not on mainstream media, only social sources for now. Added: Initial reports suggest a car bombin the Ben Yehuda area of Tel Avivnear several embassies and diplomatic sites including the US

After the Japanese CPI and the UK Retail Sales, there’s not much left for the rest of the day. The only notable economic release is the Canadian Retail Sales report in the American session and a few Fed speakers before the blackout period starts tomorrow. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada May Retail Sales The Retail

more to come Japan’s government cut growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2025 to a 0.9% expansion from a 1.3% gain projected in January expects the economy to grow 1.2% in fiscal 2025consumption took a hit from rising import costs due to a weak yenprojected growth to accelerate next year on

For this year, inflation is projected to average at 2.4%, which is similar to the last survey three months ago. Then, inflation is expected to slow to 2.0% next year and then potentially falling to 1.9% by 2026. As for the long-term, defined as 2028, inflation is seen being at exactly the 2% mark. A

Will Biden go or stay is the hot topic on media, social and otherwise. WSJ latest headline. Let’s see if there is more to come. Hope not 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Also will attend G7 meetings to be held on the sidelines of g20 meetingsPlan to discuss various topics including world economy and currency at g20Hope that politicians should be mindful about commenting on market-related comments due to their impact It looks like Suzuki is responding to Kono earlier: Japan government minister

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.3%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% US futures have also erased earlier gains, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.1%. It is being reported that a major outage by Microsoft is also impacting banks, media outlets, and several other platforms. Of note, Sky News is down in

Prior €38.6 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the details, surpluses were recorded for goods (€33 billion), services (€15 billion) and primary income (€4 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€14 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior IPPI prices 0.0% revised to 0.2%IPPI prices 0.0% versus 0.2% expectedIPPI prices YoY 2.8% Raw material price index -1.4% versus -0.7% expected. Prior month -1.5%RMPI YoY +7.5% for the 4th consecutive year-over-year increase. Base executed the level year-over-year increase as the RMPI fell -5.4% in May. THe June 2023 number showed at -2.0% decline

The GfK consumer confidence survey hit -13 in July expected -12, prior -14highest since September 2021subindex measuring consumers’ willingness to make major purchases jumped 7 points, an encouraging result Joe Staton, GfK’s client strategy director: “July’s consumer confidence poll suggests a note of caution as people wait to see exactly how the UK’s new government

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady retreat since hitting a new all-time high on Wednesday. The price tonight fell below the previous key resistance at 2430 level, and some might start questioning if this is just a pullback or the breakout was in reality a fakeout. As of now, it looks like gold

Only 24% of economists see a July rate hike (76% see no change to rates this month)30% of economists see a rate hike in September instead, with 43% anticipating it in October59% of economists see the BOJ tapering monthly bond purchases to around ¥5 trillion to start52% of economists see those monthly purchases cut to

There is a wild story about China published by Newsweek today. It University of Wisconsin-Madison researcher Yi Fuxian who says China’s official population numbers are wrong and that the 1.41 billion population estimate is off by nearly 10%. Citing births and deaths data, he says the true figure is about 130 million people smaller. “Economically,

China’s senior party official for economic affairs: China’s economic recovery is not strong enoughNeed to implement macro policies more effectivelyShould speed up the issuance and use of special bondsShould give full play to the role of fiscal funds in leveraging economic growth and structural adjustmentMonetary policy should be flexible, moderate, accurate and effectiveMaintain reasonable and

Will improve macroprudential policy framework and systemic financial risk prevention and disposal mechanismWill always maintain prudency of mon pol, enrich mon pol toolkit These are vague comments. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 0.0% Producer prices crept a little higher in June and if you exclude energy prices, the figure would’ve been up 0.3% instead. This comes as there were increases in prices for intermediate goods (+0.1%), capital goods (+0.2%), and consumer goods (+0.3%). Meanwhile, energy prices were seen down 0.1% on the month. This article was

Newswires conveying the latest scuttlebutt, citing unnamed “sources familiar with the matter” Biden is taking calls to step aside as the Democratic presidential candidate seriouslymultiple Democratic officials think an exit is a matter of time “His soul searching is actually happening, I know that for a fact,” said one of the sources, who requested anonymity.

UBS increasing their year-end price target to 5,900 for the S&P 500. previously at 5,600And their June 2025 target to 6,200 Trying to dig up a little more on this. UBS seemingly unfazed by the sliding action the past few days. Here’s a daily chart … for some perspective on the ‘slide’ I refer to

It’s important that we wouldn’t promise too much in advance.It’s true that at least one more cut is expected by the market but I personally wouldn’t comment. There are still fluctuations on inflation. Wage growth is not in line with the 2% target.It’s realistic that in next 12 months inflation will keep to decelerate.The Eurozone

Reuters is citing six industry sources as saying that several oil and gas trading desks are struggling to execute trades to start European trading. Meanwhile, some Indian brokerages are also out of commission amid tech outages. This started with Microsoft reporting that their cloud services were down just about an hour ago. But it looks

Careful on this folks. Kishida sounds like he is not happy with the weak yen. Reuters conveying report in Kyodo news: Govt must be vigilant about impact of rising prices, driven in part by weak yen, on economy to achieve domestic-demand driven recoverySays need to be cautious about effects of rising prices due to weak

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Traders and investors are not known for being timid. With mental and emotional toughness as a natural trait, few things can truly unsettle them. However, comments by former President Donald Trump have shaken their confidence. Shares of some of the world’s largest chipmakers have dropped following Trump’s statement that Taiwan, a key player in the

The US dollar has further strengthened as stocks continued to sag. The Russell 2000 is at the lows of the day, down 1% while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are modestly above the lows and under some pressure. There isn’t a clear catalyst for the dollar strength with yields in the middle of today’s session.

The ‘core-core’ rate of inflation in May (core-core is that excluding food and energy, it’s the closest to the US measure of core inflation) inched up on the month. Expectations I had seen for this were for a 2.2% rise, which is the result. As I posted earlier: the BoJ is dissatisfied with the nature

It is highly uncertain to what extent financial firms can bear interest rate risk (1)BOJ should proceed cautiously with reduction of bond purchases (1)In order to stimulate demand, BOJ should swiftly reduce purchases to target level originally set to be achieved in over around two years’ time (2)Even if BOJ reduces amount significantly to start,

Interest rates will keep getting lower, and quite significantly This is slightly different to the headline from a report yesterday here. But perhaps it speaks to his own position and not one that is shared among his peers. It seems that there are a mix of views in the ECB at the moment. And that

Disinflation is happening as predicted.Inflation will continue to decline a bit slower.We are watching services inflation carefully.Rate decisions will depend on data.There is more uncertainty on growth than a few months ago. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participating in a ‘fireside chat’ at a conference: Recent data has been really goodEconomy is not there yet on inflationLabor market is coming back into balanceRisks on both side for monetary policy choicesFed remains data dependant for monetary policyPreemptive or urgent policy actions risk making mistakesWe

The Japanese inflation data is here from earlier: Japan data – June CPI Headline 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.9% expected) The BoJ meet on July 30 and 31 and this data will go into the mix for their decision. The Bank is widely expected to leave its short term rate unchanged but trim JGB buy plans

A summary of a note from WPAC on inflation in Australia and the RBA: Recent inflation data overseas has reminded market participants that sticky inflation need not imply stuck inflation. After a few wobbles, disinflation has resumed in the United States, Canada and New Zealand. Expectations of near-term cuts in policy rates have therefore come

China’s senior party official says China’s economic recovery is not strong enoughJapan PM Kishida says need to be cautious about effect of rising prices due to weak yenJapan finance minister Suzuki scolds government minister speaking about marketsChina says it will encourage the development and expansion of private economyJapan private sector economic council members say cant

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.4% After the mixed showing yesterday, European indices are still trying to find their way towards the end of the week. US futures are steadier with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.2%. However, it is still early in the day to be drawing any conclusions for how the week

This might be the end of the line for Joe Biden’s bid to remain as President. “We’re close to the end,” a person close to Biden told NBC News. A person who spoke with a senior campaign official said a sense of a new reality has fallen over the campaign. “They’re finally realizing: It’s a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japanese media, Jiji, reporting – conveyed via Reuters: Japan digital minister Kono says he is not directly requesting BOJ to raise rates nowSays monetary policy decision is up to BOJ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.9%Retail sales -0.2% vs +0.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.3%; revised to +1.7%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -1.5% vs -0.5% m/m expectedPrior +2.9%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.8% vs +0.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.2%; revised to +1.6% That’s a disappointing reading and once again reaffirms that household spending continues to suffer amid higher prices in the UK.

After the drop on Wednesday, the dollar pushed back in trading yesterday as it gained decent ground to be up on the week now. EUR/USD fell back below 1.0900 while GBP/USD saw a stronger rejection at the 1.3000 mark. Meanwhile, USD/JPY also rebounded back above 157.00 and is up over 200 pips from the lows

On the agenda today we have Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participating in a ‘fireside chat’ at a conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the same event later, on “Accountability and Reform”. Also

ECB leaves key rates unchanged in July monetary policy decision, as expectedLagarde opening statement: Q2 growth was likely slower than Q1Lagarde Q&A: Question of what we do in September is wide open, will be data dependentECB sources: Officials consider if only one more cut is feasible in 2024Biden may be about to drop out –

China’s Senior Party Official For Policy Research: Promoting Chinese-style modernisation faces many complex contradictions and problems, but it is necessary China’s senior party official for deepening reform: We have consolidated and developed the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristicsWe will continue to improve and develop the socialist systemWe will inject strong impetus into

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

AP reporting. No more details. The gossip mill keeps on churning. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Macquarie analysts cited in a Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated) piece: US “neoliberal vision” of economic policy management may be fading outTaken over by a “populist economic vision” Macquarie analysts refer to the new populism as “popunomics” and say its “inflationary by design”: while US inflation may continue to stay low in the next

Discover the essential guide to understanding candlesticks so that you can accurately identify and trade them across different markets and timeframes The post The Essential Guide To Understanding Candlesticks appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Info via Reuters: Several people close to President Biden say that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race- New York Times Surely it must be time to just rip the band aid off and

Liz Truss rose to the top of UK politics. Unfortunately, all she will be remembered for is being the shortest-serving UK Prime Minister ever, in large part due to a budget drafted by her Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. On September 23, 2022 Kwarteng announced a mini-budget that proposed abolishing the 45% rate of

The euro has climbed a few pips on a report citing ‘ECB sources’ saying that officials considered at today’s meeting if only one more cut was feasible this year. ECB pricing is currently for 44 bps in easing this year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

More jobs were likely created in Q2, mainly in servicesLabour market is more resilientExpect recovery to be supported by consumptionMost inflation measures were either stable or edged down in JuneWages are still rising at an elevated rateLatest surveys indicate that wages will moderate over the next yearInflation expected to fluctuate around current levels for the

Closing changes: German DAX -0.4%.France CAC +0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% French stocks are trying to recover from the election but aren’t finding it easy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The traditional ECBs sources leak is out saying: ECB hawks open to September rate Provided upcoming data confirms disinflation underway Going back to the cut in June,, from the get-go, the ECB members felt uneasy about the cut. Since then, they seem to have been influenced by talking too much about a bias. Lagarde gave

It would be prudent for the Fed to wait for clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%US should consider scaling back tax exemptions for employer-paid health care, capital gains on the sale of primary residencesUS has a pressing need to reverse ongoing increase in public debtUS should consider progressively raising income tax rates,

There were some interesting moves in markets yesterday and they were very much all over the place. It’s been a tough week to try and paint a coherent picture to say the least. The dollar weakened at the balance, with USD/JPY continuing to steal the spotlight for the most part. Meanwhile, tech shares endured a

Crude oil futures is settling the day at $82.85. That’s up $2.09 or 2.59%. Yesterday, the price fell below its 100-day moving average currently at $80.61, but closed back above the moving average level. Today the price did drift back below the moving average to a low of $80.45, but reversed, and is closing near

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

Prior decisionMain refinancing rate 4.25% vs 4.25% expectedPrior 4.25%Deposit facility rate 3.75% vs 3.75% expectedPrior 3.75%Marginal lending facility 4.50%Prior 4.50%Incoming information broadly supports previous assessment of inflation outlookNot pre-committing to a particular rate pathDetermined to ensure inflation returns to 2% target in a timely mannerWill keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary

The Nasdaq index moved higher in the first few minutes of trading today, giving buyers some hope after the sharp move lower. Recall from yesterday (see post here and here), the Nasdaq moved down by over 500 points. In the post, I started to talk about the 200 hour MA as the next target. Today,

For what it is worth, the Washington Post is putting that former Pres. Obama tell allies that Biden needs to seriously consider his viability. The article adds that Biden’s path to victory has significantly shrunk. The sentiment is not unusual of late. Biden has even opened the door, saying in a new BET interview that

Axios reports: Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend. There have been fresh calls for Biden to drop out today along with reports that Jeffries, Pelosi and Schumer

The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday, reaching its highest level since July 18, 2023, with a peak at 1.3043 before slowing. This move pushed the price above the July 28 high of 1.2995 and the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Today, however, the price has rotated lower, falling back below both the 1.3000 and 1.2995 levels, indicating

It’s very clear that inflation has come way down in 12-18 monthsThis is about as fast as inflation has ever fallenInflation path isn’t done but it makes me feel a lot better to see components decline, including housing The labor market has been cooling to a position of better balanceSo far this doesn’t look like

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq posted its biggest daily decline since December 2022 yesterday as the rotation out of big tech stocks into more rate sensitive names continues. We can clearly see this internal market dynamic unfolding as the Russell 2000 and the Dow keep on gaining. In the big picture, the fundamentals did not change,

Yesterday at this time, the USDCAD was basing at the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart and moving above the 200-bar MA on the same chart. I noted that this price action tilted the technical bias to the upside (see my post by clicking HERE). However, the price couldn’t sustain the upward momentum and fell

Business conditions +5 index prior +10trading conditions and profitability both fell 6ptsemployment index fell 3ptsforward orders fell 4pts to -6 Business confidence -1 prior-2 NAB comments: “Consistent with our monthly business survey, today’s release shows business conditions eased in Q2 as slow economic growth and soft consumer demand weighed on firms,”“At +5, conditions are still

Fundamental Overview Copper experienced a pretty strong selloff this week with market participants blaming the soft Chinese economic data and the increase in inventories in most global warehouses suggesting some weak demand. In the big picture, stable global growth and major central banks cutting rates into resilient economies should be bullish drivers for the copper

Prior was +1.3Six month index +38.7 vs +13.8 priorCapex +7.4 vs +12.1 priorEmployment: +15.2 vs -2.5 priorNew orders: +20.7 vs -2.2 priorPrices paid: +19.8 vs +22.5 priorPrices received: +24.2 vs +13.7 priorShipments: +27.8 vs -7.2 priorUnfilled orders: +9.1 vs +8.9 priorDelivery times: +8.5 vs -9.4 priorInventories: -9.4 vs -6.4 priorAvg employee workweek: -1.6 vs +4.8

Prior was -0.5% This is a composite index of data that’s already released. It’s never a market mover but it can be a handy reminder of the recent trend in economic data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not clear what’s going on in yen trading today. Justin earlier speculated about intervention but noted that the move didn’t have the usual hallmarks of the Ministry of Finance slamming the bid. What’s tough is that so much that’s happening in markets right now is tough to explain. There is some intense rotation ongoing

Hideo Hayakawa is a former Bank of Japan Executive Director and now a Senior Fellow at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research. He spoke in an interview with Bloomberg, saying “I don’t think there’s a chance of a rate hike in July”: The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates this month Will

Chipmakers and broader tech bounced early today but that move has since reversed and the Nasdaq is under pressure. The index is now at a session low, down 1%. The selling picked up on a report that Biden could drop out this weekend, though I think that’s somewhat correlation than causation. Certainly, all the political

I expect a short one today with Lagarde’s bags packed for vacation. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Not much to get excited about the ECB meeting decision laterMajor currencies slow things down after the action yesterdayBOJ data does not suggest evidence of intervention on 17 JulyJapan chief Cabinet secretary says no comment on FX movesUK May ILO unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.4% expectedSwitzerland June trade balance CHF 6.18 billion vs CHF

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The last few days has seen the Dow industrial average move higher w the S&P and the NASDAQ indices moved lower. Today, the roles are reversed with the Dow lower, while the S&P in the NASDAQ indices or higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also trading a bit lower in trading today after some profit-taking

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is set to speak shortly on Yahoo Finance. I’ll have the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Seem weird: ah, here we go, it’s a thread! I am not sure this will go off as well as Biden expects 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Specifics of monetary policy are up to the BOJ to decideBOJ monetary policy is not aimed at guiding FX levelsClosely monitoring FX market The usual stuff from Japanese officials amid their many verbal jawboning. But no doubt they can be happier a bit with USD/JPY sliding back to 156.00 currently, though off the earlier low

Prior week 222k revised to 223K.Initial jobless claims 243K vs. 230K estimate. Highest since August of last year.4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 234.75K vs 233.75K last weekprior week continuing claims 1.852M revised to 1.847M.Continuing claims 1.867M vs 1.855M estimate. This is the 6th week above 1.800M. Highest since November 2021.4-week moving average of

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. Australia employment change was higher than expectations with a gain of 50.2 K vs 19.9K estimate. That helped to prop up the pair. The USD is mixed with little changes vs all the major currencies. Up-and-done trading has

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.9%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% The selloff in tech shares yesterday weren’t too impactful for European indices, as they are less concentrated in that area in general. And the rotation into the Dow is arguably a net positive reflection for European stocks at the balance. In

All three are speaking before the “Exploring Conventional in an Unconventional World” conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format. 1745/1345 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks2205/1805 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Spotlight on today’s market: Tech Titans Propel Stocks Forward Today’s stock market demonstrates a striking dynamism, particularly led by major technology entities. The prevailing mood among investors accompanies a cautious optimism, influenced notably by how specific sectors are reacting to ongoing economic developments. 🚀 Technology and Communication Services: A Surge of Green Nvidia (NVDA) impressively

In the video and post yesterday, I spoke of the support target between 0.8818 and 0.8825 (see: “USDCHF breaks lower below technical levels, increasing the bearish bias. What next?“). In that post (and in the video), I wrote On the downside, the next target area comes between 0.8818 and 0.8825. Below that is the 50%

There is some speculation of Bank of Japan intervention. I haven’t seen or heard anything of this and it would seem to be not the way the BOJ is operating right now. The BoJ recently slammed yen crosses after US data, at time when it was already fallingthe BoJ tends not to intervene in times

Ursula von der Leyen has been re-elected as the President of the European Commission for a new five-year term but it wasn’t easy. Her re-election was supported by 401 deputies, with 284 voting against and 15 abstaining. It was a secret ballot with no one standing against her. In June, Italy’s Meloni abstained on the

There is no pre-determined path for SeptemberSept projections plus other data will be taken into accountDecision today was unanimousSurveys indicate wage growth will decline in 2025 and 2026Various wage measures point in the direction of rather elevated levelsWe’re data dependent, not data-point dependentWe will stay in restrictive territory as long as is necessaryWe must look

This is due to the fact that the Labour Force Survey (LFS) has been experiencing a fall in response rates and some quality challenges as a result. The idea put out by the ONS is to transition to a Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), in order to improve the quality of the labour market data

In the kickstart video for July 18, 2024, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The key levels are in play? What is the bias? the risk? the targets? for each pair and explain why. For other videos and posts on

Another strong employment report from Australia. Jobs added is more than double the central estimate, most of them full time (over 40K in June and May). A little gloss taken off by the rise in the unemployment rate. Its rising from near 50 year lows, and the participation rate is up, so on the whole

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Logan, Daly, BowmanCanada – Trudeau holds meeting with Mark Carney to join governmentChinese Communist Party news conference called for July 19 – Third Plenum briefingBank of England speaker Thursday on financial stabilityAustralian data: Q2 business survey shows conditions eased and forward indicators softenedAustralian June unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.0%

The Australian Labour market report for June is due at 1130 Sydney time on Thursday, 18 July 2024: 0130 GMT2130 US Eastern time (Wednesday evening)This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case

It is very much a placeholder meeting as the ECB has made it clear that they will not cut rates today. Instead, policymakers have been teeing up the idea of the next move coming in September. So, this will be a slight pause following the rate cut in June. As such, there will be very

The European Central Bank cut rates from a record high in June, but this month they expected to hold. While September is being eyed for the next cut, guidance is likely to be non-committal and contain caveats. Due at 0815 US Eastern time, with Lagarde following a half hour later: Comments via a Reuters report

The background to this is here: Canadian finance minister could walk the plank. Mark Carney could be tapped Canadian media, Globe and Mail (gated) are reporting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has urged Mark Carney to join his Liberal government. Four unnamed sources were quoted, so it appears to be getting closer. This article was

To adopt resolution on further deepening reform comprehensivelyMust consciously place reform in a more prominent positionReform tasks set out in this decision to be completed by 2029Will implement measures to prevent, defuse risks in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutionsWill raise the level of party’s leadership

The swings in USD/JPY persists. While there was no evidence of intervention earlier there is concern amongst traders that it could hit. Increased nerves is seeing these hot potato swings. I posted earlier on the options expires due around 155.50/60 and this seems to have provided some support: Some USD/JPY option expiries to be aware

The NASDAQ tumbled today and had its worst trading day since December 2022 when the index fell -3.23%. The decline today pushed the index down -512.42 points or -2.77% to 17996.92 . Meanwhile, the Dow industrial average rose 243.60 points or 0.59% to 41198.09. That was good enough for another record close for that index.

During Schumer’s one-on-one meeting with Biden on Saturday, “Schumer forcefully made the case that it would be better for Biden, better for the Democratic party, and better for the country if he were to bow out.” How much longer does this charade go on? Biden is under pressure from all over to step aside. The

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.4% For European indices, they are less affected by the selloff in tech shares in Wall Street. Adding to that, the rotation play into the Dow is arguably a net positive for overall sentiment for European stocks too – which ended in a more mixed showing yesterday. US futures

Dollar pairs are lightly changed with narrow ranges returning in trading today. The only exception on the day is USD/JPY. But even then, the pair is also near flat at around 156.20 levels now amid some light pushing and pulling. The low earlier came in Asia, with the pair touching 155.36 before returning above the

Biden was scheduled to speak in Las Vegas. CEO of Unidosus says the Prez has Covid. Biden was to speak at a UnidosUS event. – White House confirms: Biden has tested positivehas mild symptomshas received a dose of Paxlovidwill go to Delaware and self-isolate while WFH Old pic. – UnidosUS is the United States’s largest

0715 GMT / 0315 US Eastern time: Bank of England executive director of financial stability strategy Nat Benjaminspeaking on how margining practices, now under close scrutiny by regulators globally after volatility in markets in recent years, could impact financial stability This doesn’t look like it’ll have anything on the economy or monetary policy. This article

When copper futures eyed a push above $5 per pound in May, it looked like we were starting to witness one of the breakout trades this decade. However, the hype quickly died down as price fell sharply towards the end of May and that led to another 5% drop in June. The slight rebound earlier

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD centered near the 1.0900 level. If anything else, that should help to limit any downside shoves in the session ahead at least before we get to the ECB policy decision later. Besides that, there are a few large

Prior CHF 5.81 billion; revised to CHF 5.79 billion The Swiss trade surplus expanded in June as exports were seen down by 2.5% while imports slumped by 5.3% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

As the US trading session draws to a close, the USD/CHF has reached a key swing target area between 0.8818 and 0.88267. This level is crucial for both buyers and sellers. For dip buyers, it offers a low-risk entry point; if the price falls below this range, exiting is advisable to avoid potential market breaks.

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

I noted at the time that the price action was not as clear cut as what we saw from last week. And the BOJ accounts (as seen below) are now reaffirming that, suggesting that the Japan MOF might not have played a key role in driving USD/JPY lower yesterday. Typically, the circled column should show

The pair fell by roughly 1.3% yesterday, which was the steepest fall since Japan intervened in the market last Thursday. Before that, you’d have to look back to the start of May when Japan stepped in once again at the time. That speaks to the significance of the decline yesterday. Still, it wasn’t one that

A note from Goldman Sachs, info via Reuters, citing GS ‘without providing figures’: value of stocks hedge funds ditched over the last five trading sessions was the biggest since November 2022 and is close to a five-year recordde-risking has been led by the information technology sector, followed by industrial, healthcare, consumer discretionary and communications services

Chinese Communist Party Central Committee will condiuct the press conference: Scheduled for July 19 (I don’t have a time yet)it’s a briefing on the third plenum held this week We may get some info on moves to support the economy. Perhaps. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Waller:Time to cut rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenariosBeige Book: Economic activity maintained a slight to modest paceUS June housing starts 1.353M vs 1.300M expectedUS June industrial production +0.6% vs +0.3% expectedAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 comes in at 2.7% up from 2.5% priorEIA weekly crude oil inventories

Now that the UK labour market report is out of the way, the only notable event left in the European session is the ECB policy decision. Moving on to the American session, the latest US Jobless Claims figures will be the most important release of the day. 12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – ECB Policy Decision The

Overall Economic Activity Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of DistrictsSeven Districts reported some increase in activity, while five noted flat or declining activityPreviously two noted no change in activity Labor Markets Employment rose at a slight pace in most DistrictsMore mentions of flat or declining employmentSeveral Districts

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior 4.4%Employment change 19k v s 18k expectedPrior -140kJune payrolls change 16kPrior -3k; revised to 54kMay average weekly earnings +5.7% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.9%May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.7% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +6.0% The jobless rate held steady in the reported month with nominal earnings also easing slightly in the three months

Rising exports and rising imports but not by as much as was expected, and not as much as in May. Exports to: China +7.2% y/ythe EU -13.4% y/ythe US +11% y/y USD/JPY has been heavy on the session: USD/JPY under 155.50 now Its around 155.60 as I update This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

There are some option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY tome today (Thursday, 18 July 2024): 155.50-60 US$527mn156.00 US$325 mn Those amounts are almost ‘drop in the bucket’ size, but a heads up regardless. There are much larger volumes ones above, but they are so far away: 158.00 3.8bn USD159.00 1.2bn USD161.00 1.2bn

Its just on to 8.15am in Tokyo. USD/JPY is making new recent lows after its fall overnight: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nasdaq suffers worst drop since 2022. USD/JPY pressured There is no fresh new catalyst This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via a note from JPM on oil ICYMI: estimate the equilibrium price of WTI oil at around $70/bbleven at $60/bbl, WTI prices are too low to incentivize production, potentially leading to a spike to $100/bbl in following year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Snippet from UBS’ global wealth management division on their outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and investor implications. UBS expects the first rate cut from the FOMC in Septemberinvestors should “act now to put cash to work” as attractive yield from ‘quality fixed income’ is unlikely to persist much longer UBS have caught

Via the Bank of America’s global fund manager survey for July Most investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September56% of responding investors expect a first Fed rate cut at the September 17/18 meeting87% anticipate a first cut in H2 I popped up this from FedWatch (CME) yesterday, the probability

Synopsis: ING believes that EUR/USD is more likely to fall to 1.08 rather than rise to 1.10 after this week’s ECB meeting. The current balance between USD-positive US political developments and USD-negative Fed rate repricing is keeping EUR/USD near 1.09, with minimal contribution from the euro leg. Key Points: Current Trading: EUR/USD remains close to

From the ForexLive glossary: The Beige Book is a report published by the Federal Reserve (Fed) eight times a year, that provides an overview of economic conditions in each of the Fed’s twelve districts. The report is compiled using information from the Fed’s business contacts, economists, and other experts, and covers a wide range of

Australia’s employment report is expected to show a continued rise in employment and a steady unemployment rate. I post a preview separately on this. You’ll also note the RBA Bulletin is due. This is going to be a monetary policy decision, we’ll have to wait for the next meeting (due on August 5 and 6)

In the new trading day in Australia, the employment report will be released.That report will likely have an impact on the prices. Knowing the key technical levels is a way to map out the roadmap for the event. On the downside, the nextkey area comes between 0.6708 and 0.6713. Her level corresponds with the rising

Gold touched a record $2483 but has since reversed lower and is trading down $12 on the day to $2456. Technically, I don’t see this reversal as overly damaging as it doesn’t come close to erasing yesterday’s spike higher. However we could see a retest of the old record high of $2450 set in May

Prior -0.2%Market index 214.1 vs 206.1 priorPurchase index 140.4 vs 144.3 priorRefinance index 613.0 vs 532.3 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.87% vs 7.00% prior The jump in mortgage applications in the past week comes as the average rate of the most popular US home loan drops by some 13 bps back under 7%. The rebound owes

As London/European traders look for the exits, the GBPUSD has backed off highs and is retesting the natural support at 1.3000 as well as the underside of a broken trend line at the same level. The high price going back to July 28, 2023 is also in play at 1.2995. WIll the buyers come in

As London/European traders finish up the day, the major indices are closing the day mixed: German DAX -0.40%.France CAC, -0.12%UK FTSE 100 +0.28%Spain’s Ibex +0.13%Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.03% Looking at US markets as Europe leaves shows a mixed view as well but with more downside momentum for the losers. Both the S&P index and the

The buyers are taking more control in the USDCAD after early declines found support buyers near the 100 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart. The rise has now taken the price above the 200-bar moving average on the 4- hour chart. That moving average comes in at 1.3682 and is now closed support

Prior was 1.277m (revised to 1.314m)Single family -2.2%Multifamily +19.6%Permits 1.446m vs 1.395m prior Yesterday’s NAHB number was a bit better and long end yields fell yesterday near a three-month low. Home builder stocks absolutely shot higher as the market senses a bottom in the cycle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The tides have sure changed. Democratic representative Adam Schiff (California) has called for Pres. Biden to step down as the Democratic candidate for president of the United States. Schiff commented that there are growing concerns within the Democratic Party about President Biden’s ability to defeat former President Trump in the upcoming November election. These concerns

The NASDAQ index continues to get hit with the price now down 500 points or -2.72%. That is its largest decline since December 2022. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price gap lower and immediately moved below its 100-hour moving average (blue line currently at 18194). The next key target area comes between 17820

High yield 4.466% (last month was a little lower at 4.452%)WI level at the time of the auction 4.467%Tail -0.1 basis points vs six-month average of -0.6 basis pointsBid to cover 2.68X vs six-month average of 2.63XDealers 8.47% vs six-month average of 12.1%Directs 14.32% vs six-month average of 18.2%Indirects 77.2% vs six-month average of 69.7%

The weekly oil inventory data will be released at the bottom of the hour. The private data released late yesterday showed a surprise draw down to -4.44M barrels The expectations were for a small change of -0.033M in oil inventories. Gasoline is expected to show a drawdown of -1.600MDistilates are expected to show a draw

Dow and S&P close at recordsI know it is just the Dow 30, but it is on pace for best % move since June 2023Crude oil futures settles at $80.76Fed’s Kugler: Will be appropriate to ease later this year if conditions evolve favorablyThere hasn’t been a better week to own the Russell 2000 in 24

On the point about the consumer, yesterday’s retail sales report was very strong but there was a huge seasonal adjustment that has the usual bears questioning the underlying strength. Other comments from Barkin: Expectation of a recession as needed to slow inflation has not played outFirms are reluctant to let people go, and some sectors

Just a couple weeks ago, the Atlanta Fed GDP growth estimate was near 1.5%. In its most recent calculation just released, the expected growth rate rose to 2.7% from 2.5% last. Growth goes from below trend to above trend in a short period of time. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas spoke on Tuesday (US time). He had remarks on the Fed posted earlier: IMF expect only one Fed rate cut this year and the IMF published its latest growth forecasts on Tuesday: IMF leaves 2024 global growth forecast unchanged, bumps 2025 GDP Gourinchas also spoke on Japan,

We had the news on this posted many hours ago: Trump wants to hold rates high until after the election, no cut until after the election (which is three and half months away); Trump was speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV when he gave, says the FT, the ‘warning’ to Powell not to cut.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold reached a new all-time high as it continues to be supported by the steady fall in real yields. The breakout of the three-month range might now attract momentum players and take us to even higher highs. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as

Latest data getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking forBut would like to see more data to gain further confidence inflation is moving sustainably to 2% goalLast week’s data reflects a broad decline in inflationThings are moving in the right directionEven if Fed begins to cut rates, policy will remain restrictive enough

The NZDUSD fell sharply yesterday and in the process tested the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low and also a trendline support level on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent bounce off of the USD selling has in the price extend above the 100 day moving average at 0.60629, 200 day moving

Crude oil draw of -4.870M vs expected draw of -0.033MGasoline inventories build of 3.328M vs expected draw of -1.600MDIstillates build of 3.454M vs expected draw of -0.833MCushing drawdown of -0.875M vs last week -0.702M drawRefining utilization -1.7% versus expected -0.1%. Previous +1.9% Crude oil is trading at $82.04 up $1.31 after the data. The private

Flight to safety flows into the Swiss franc and movement out of the US dollar has the USDCHF moving sharply lower in trading today. The pair also tumbled below a key technical target defined by the: 200 day moving average at 0.888438.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, and

More from Fed Gov. Waller: Exact timing of rate cut doesn’t matter a lot. Key to easing when conditions just defy itLabor market is in a sweet spot, firms have the workers they wantIt is important for the Fed to maintain current labor market conditions.We have done our job with the high rates, open question

The probability priced in for a rate cut in August is ~49%, according to the OIS market. Meanwhile, there’s roughly 50 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end. It’s definitely a close call and if the BOE doesn’t move in August, traders are still expecting them to at least move in September. The odds

US chip stocks are helping to send the major indices lower with the NASDAQ index down over 1.6%. The snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average minus 47.66.2 or -0.12% at 40,906.83. S&P index -55.50 points or -0.98% at 5611.71NASDAQ index -301.56 points or -1.63% at 18207.78. The RUSSELL 2000 is trading

Prior was +0.2%Prices up 3.6% y/y vs +5.7% prior led by AlbertaPrices in Toronto +0.8% y/yFull report There are some real creaks appearing in the Canadian housing market and that’s a big reason the Bank of Canada will likely ride to the rescue next week with a second consecutive rate cut. This article was written

Reuters Tankan survey for June 2024 Manufacturers sentiment index +11 in July vs +6 in June first gain in four monthsmanufacturers expect the index to fall back to plus 9 over the next three months Service-sector +27, down from June’s +31 Reuters report some comments from the survey: “Domestic price hikes have weakened consumption and

There are unconfirmed rumours on Chinese social media that Chinese leader Xi Jinping suffered a stroke during Third Plenum meetings. These rumors have gotten some traction so keep an eye on them. That said, these kinds of rumours always seem to perk up, including persistent rumours that Vlad Putin has died. These reports, evidently originated

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest. US stocks are getting hit lower with the Nasdaq leading. Former Pres. Trump who is leading the presidential race, said he wanted a 10% tariff on all goods and 60% on Chinese goods. He also said Taiwan should

The low earlier hit 157.70 and that puts it up against a test of key trendline support for the year, seen around 157.75 currently. It’s a big moment for USD/JPY as a break of that will start to chip away at the resolve of dip buyers. And that could lead to a more meaningful retracement

Headlines: Japanese yen surge continues in European morning tradeJapan top currency diplomat Kanda says no choice but to respond to speculatorsUS futures fall further as tech shares feel skittishTraders trim BOE rate cut bets for August after inflation dataUK June CPI +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y expectedEurozone June final CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimFed’s Williams

easyMarkets is proud to announce the conclusion of the Bernabéu Crossbar Championship, an extraordinary event held in partnership with Real Madrid at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. While the contestants were unable to hit the crossbar, the spirit of competition was celebrated, and each participant received $2,500, totaling $10,000 in prizes. Beyond the competition, the

Overview of Today’s Market Today’s stock market presents a mixed but predominantly negative outlook, particularly in the technology sector which shows significant declines. As we dissect the segments of the market, notable trends emerge that could signal key movements for investors and traders. Sector Analysis Technology & Semiconductors: A sea of red dominates the semiconductor

Details: prior month 0.9% Unrevisedindustrial production 0.6% versus 0.3% expected capacity utilization 78.8% versus 78.4% estimate prior month revised to 78.3 from 78.7 last monthmanufacturing output 0.4% versus 0.2% estimate. Prior month revised to 1.0% from 0.9% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Richmond Fed Pres Barkin adds to his comments from earlier saying: He is sure that the US central bank will debate at July policy meeting whether it is still appropriate to describe inflation as elevated Looking for low inflation to sustain and broaden, starting to see the broadening.No one 25 basis point interest rate cut

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q2 CPI 0.4% q/q (expected 0.5%) & 3.3% y/y (expected 3.4%)ANZ forecast an RBNZ interest rate cut in November (previously forecasting February 2025)NZD/USD remains higher after the lower than expected NZ inflaiton data Now this from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: You

Time for cut in rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenariosOptimistic scenario is more good inflation and data, which could mean interest rate cut in not too distant future.Second and probably more likely scenario is uneven inflation data ahead that still shows progress, that would make a rate cut in near future

Info incoming from the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday 17 July 2024: 1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin gives informal remarks on the economy before the Greater Prince George’s Business Roundtable 1335 GMT / 0935 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.3%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% US futures are also being pressured after the better showing in Wall Street yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%, and Dow futures down 0.3% currently. It’s shaping up to be more of a retreat in risk

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% No change to the initial estimates and this doesn’t change anything before we get to the ECB tomorrow. Stick to the status quo is the message that Lagarde & co. will go with. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The latest strategy from Japan is to intervene when there are factors working in their favour in nudging USD/JPY lower. They did it last week after key US data releases and there is a suggestion that they are back at it again today. The drop lower in the pair isn’t quite a sharp one (that’s

The NASDAQ index continues to fall with the index now down 435 points or -2.37% at 18068.83. The NASDAQ is on pace for its worst day of 2024. Back on October 25, the index fell -2.43%. Technically, the NASDAQ gap lower and is trading below its 100 hour moving average. Recall that on July 1,

This is one of the most-unusual periods in markets I can remember. It’s hard to pin down what’s going on but consider this: The Russell 2000 is up 12% in five days. According to John Authers, in the last 30 years that move has only been exceeded by snap-back rallies following major crises: LTCM, Dot

Prior was +0.9%Manufacturing output +0.4% vs +0.2% expectedCapacity utilization 78.8% vs 78.4% prior This should lead to some further bumps in US Q2 GDP forecasts. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Via Oil Markets Editor @OPIS — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1 mn barrelsDistillates -0.5 mn bblsGasoline -1.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

The greenback nudged slightly higher after the more upbeat US retail sales report here. But it gave back those gains late in the day, as stocks continue to rip higher in Wall Street. It’s been a stellar month for equities already, with the S&P 500 up over 3.8% and the Dow up some 4.7% in

There’s no fresh catalyst in terms of headlines as the pair is just being driven lower on the session. But one can argue that it comes amid a break of key trendline support for the year as outlined here. The pair had previously held at the key level (white line) as seen in the chart

In the kickstart video, I look at the 3 major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it based yesterday at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the December 2023 high (see video yesterday “EURUSD bounces off the 50% midpoint, giving the buyers the “go-ahead” to push higher“). That gave

A lower y/y inflation reading is expected from NZ. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will welcome this. The NZ economy is in dire straits. Plummetting PMIs the latest indications of this: New Zealand services PMI for June 2024: 40.2 (prior 43.0)New Zealand June Manufacturing PMI 41.1 (prior 47.2) There are some indications we are

The inflation data from NZ came in lower than the market expected, and lower than the RBNZ had forecast: New Zealand Q2 CPI 0.4% q/q (expected 0.5%) & 3.3% y/y (expected 3.4%) At least one bank has brought forward its forecast for an RBNZ rate cut in response: ANZ forecast an RBNZ interest rate cut

Prior +2.0%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.5% Both the headline and core annual estimates are unchanged compared to May. This comes as services inflation remains sticky, seen at 5.7%, also unchanged on the month. The pound has nudged up from 1.2970 to 1.2985 on the back of this. The report isn’t one to

He makes mention that “if speculators cause excessive moves in FX market, we have no choice but to respond appropriately”. They stepped into the market on Thursday and Friday last week, and that seems to have finally broken the resolve of dip buyers. USD/JPY is markedly lower again today, down by 1% to 156.75 currently.

Fundamental Overview The upward momentum in the S&P 500 has been kept at bay recently as the goldilocks data triggered a strong rotation into small caps stocks with the Russell 2000 having its best week in 24 years. It also looks like the rotation has been driven by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. Yesterday, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending might have been exaggerated. Overall, this should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. Yesterday, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk sentiment.

US data released Tuesday was strong, ICYMI summary here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul. The shift into the Russell 2000 and Dow continues Bank of Montreal cite a less hawkish Powell: A Fed cut in September remains effectively fully priced in even with consumption and imported inflation surprising on the upside. The price

RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 3.6% y/y (prior 4.2%) for Q2 2024Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Barkin, Waller and SchmidHeads up for RBA’s John Simon to speak on WednesdayAustralian June leading index – economy improving but to remain below trend into 2025Financial Times: Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) -0.4% m/m expected +4.1% m/m, prior -0.1% -8.7% y/y expected -1.2% y/y, prior -0.1% Bad misses for this data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been on the backfoot ever since the last US NFP report as the market might have started to question the reasons to push into even higher highs. Things got even murkier as Trump’s odds of winning soared after the failed assassination attempt. He is a great supporter of the “drill,

Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to jobs have become more balancedIf labor market cools too much, it will be appropriate to cut rates sooner rather than laterIt may be appropriate to hold rates steady ‘a little longer’Inflation has continued to trend down despite ‘a few bumps’ at the start of this yearContinued labor

ANZ are forecasting a 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in November 2024: Overall, today’s CPI data adds to the growing body of evidence that the RBNZ has done enough. There are now clear signs that weak demand and increasing spare capacity across the economy are flowing through to lower domestic

Despite a more negative day for equities, the dollar is not getting much love in trading today. Instead, traders are moving to the Japanese yen with USD/JPY itself down 1% to 156.75 currently. That comes amid a break of key trendline support in the pair, exacerbating the downside pressure. As the dollar struggles, GBP/USD is

The main highlight in the European session was the UK CPI, which was a disappointment for the BoE as the data remained unchanged from the prior figures. That ruled out a rate cut in August. For the rest of the session there’s no other notable event (the Eurozone CPI is not going to be a

Going into the report, traders were pricing in a relative coin flip for the BOE meeting in August. And with the headline, core, and services estimates all coming in unchanged, it’s hard to see a meaningful shift in the odds in the aftermath. The disinflation process is gradually playing out and central banks are now

The price of Crude oil fell -$1.15 or -1.30% to $80.76. The decline is attributed to weak growth in China, the world’s No.1 oil importer, raising demand concerns. The expectations that former Pres. Trump will win the November may also be a contributor as he is pro-drill and critical of the Biden administration regarded drilling

A snippet from Société Générale on US equites, looking favourably at the broadening rally: equal-weighted S&P 500 had its biggest one-day outperformance versus its market cap-weighted counterpart since Nov 2020 last week SocGen says this is a boost of confidence for stocks, comparing narrow with broader breadth: narrow breadth often occurs in a bear market

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/JPY at the 158.50 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance but could help to keep price action more contained before we get to US trading. That said, be wary of any surprises from the UK inflation data

It was previously closer to a coin flip at ~49% before the inflation numbers here. At the balance, the report proves inflation might be stickier but I would say the BOE could easily dismiss this as being part of the supposed “bumps in the road”. I mean, that’s the narrative that most central banks are

US futures, with tech in particular, are under a bit of pressure today. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% with Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. The Magnificent Seven is only due to report earnings next week but tech shares appear to be a little skittish already. That said, the drop so far today is a

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.3% French stocks were the laggard yesterday as the mood music in Europe remains a more cautious one. But for today, tech shares are also lagging with Nasdaq futures marked down by 0.5% currently. S&P 500 futures are also down 0.3% as such as we look to the session

There hasn’t been a better time to own the Russell 2000 since the year 2000. The five-day rally from 2029 to 2251 is a whopping 10.9% including 2.9% today. This run is the best five-day run since April 2000, according to Tom Hearden. That period in April/May 2000 was a counter-trend rally after the 1999/2000

The UK release will be the main one to watch, especially since an August rate cut by the BOE remains a near 50-50 call. Headline annual inflation is estimated to ease to 1.9% but core annual inflation is estimated to hold at 3.5%. Services inflation remains sticky and policymakers would like to see more progress

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas says he still expects just the one rate cut from the Federal Reserve in 2024. Gourinchas cites a risk that the slow pace of disinflation could mean that rates stay higher for longer. The IMF published its latest growth forecasts on Tuesday: IMF leaves 2024 global growth

Trump is ahead on the polling to win the presidential election in November, and he has bad news for borrowers. He spoke in an interview with Bloomberg, expressing that he does not want a Fed rate cut in September, as the market is now pricing. Trump says he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve

This data point tends not to be much of an AUD mover upon release. Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for June 2024indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the futurerose from -0.28% in May to -0.13% in June WPAC assessment: Lower commodity prices partially offset by stabilising hours

New Zealand inflation data for the April to June quarter of 2020, lower than expected: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be a little happier with this data, but inflation in NZ is still above target. The target range for consumer inflation is between 1 and 3%. Domestic inflation continues to stay stubbornly high:

Coming up at 6pm Sydney time: 0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time Panel participation by John Simon, Head of Economic Research, at the Macquarie University Business School, Sydney Stay tuned for any news on this at the time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Useful points made by Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Brad Setser. I’d only add that China has already begun to let the yuan drop. We had the heads up on this from HSBC, and they were spot on: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) (USD/CNY chart below)

Bloomberg have snagged the remarks from Trump, interview on Bloomberg TV: Mr T says if he is elected President he would not be looking to remove Powell before Powell’s term endsays Trumponomics is low interest rates and tariffssays the Fed should not cut rates prior to the election *** Wow … I had what I

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Dow 30 does not gather the respect versus the broader indices. Some of the criticisms include: The DJIA tracks only 30 large companies, while the S&P 500 includes 500, leading critics to argue that the DJIA neglects companies of various sizes and doesn’t accurately represent the economy. Being price-weighted, the DJIA gives more weight

The major stock indices all closed higher but it was the Dow and the Russell 2000 which did the best. The Nasdaq lagged. Looking at the closing levels: Dow Industrial Average average soared 742.74 points or 1.85% at 40,954.49. That is the 2nd consecutive record close. S&P index rose 36.40.64 percent at 5667.21. That was

The EURUSD moved lower in the US session and in the process moved down to test the 50% midpoint of the trading range since the December 2023 high. That level comes in at 1.08695. The current price is at 1.0888. The bounce off that support target is a key bounce and bullish signal. Going back

New Zealand global daily trade price rises 0.4%. The average sell price comes in at $3,837/Tonne. The move higher comes after a sharp drop in the last report. The NZDUSD is trading lower today, but is finding a stall on the first test of the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low

SocGen examines historical patterns of the USD’s response to Fed easing cycles, noting that the chances of Fed easing in September have increased. With past easing cycles showing varied impacts on the USD, the overall trend suggests a lagged response rather than an immediate downturn. Key Points: Historical Analysis: Since 1984, there have been 7

The US retail sales came out stronger than expectations with revisions to the prior month. The market likes that dynamic is a key Fed cut in play but everyone likes stronger growth too (as long as it is not inflationary). The major US stock indices are advancing higher once again with the small-cap Russell 2000

I saw on social media some influencers explaining how you should be aware of the news even if you trade using only technical analysis. It’s good that this topic is mentioned, but the problem is that the education provided is at a very basic level and it can set you up for failure. What you

Bank of America observes that GBP/USD is starting to break its secular downtrend, which has been in place since 2008. Recent technical signals suggest a potential rally towards 1.40, contingent on a sustained break above key resistance levels and the 200-week SMA. Key Points: Secular Downtrend: GBP/USD has been in a secular downtrend since 2008,

The US dollar is a touch stronger almost across the major FX board. AUD and NZD are weak, but its JPY the clear weakest of the majors. Apart from what has been posted there is no fresh news. The data agenda is basically empty. USD/JPY hit circa 158.50 and has backed off a few tics:

The USDCHF extended higher after the better than expected retail sales. The move higher took the pair above a number of MAs including the 200 bar moving ever done a 4-hour chart at 0.8956, the 100-day moving average 0.8962, and the 200-hour MA at 0.8970. What the pair could not get through was the highest

Gold is trading at $37 and 74% or 1.57% at $2459.70. The high price today reach $2462.50. The move to the upside today has taken the price above the May 20 all-time high price at $2450.10. It is a new record high for the precious metal. Spot gold is up around 19.25% in 2024. Since

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 growth estimate rises to 2.5% from 2.2% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on July 16, up from 2.0 percent on July 10. After this morning’s retail sales report, the

The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins.The ECB meets on Thursday with the expectation of no change. The AUDUSD fell below its 100-hour MA yesterday and apart from an early blip above in the Asian session, stayed below that MA and then moved below the

The major European indices are closing the day with declines for the second consecutive day to start the new trading week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX -0.35%France CAC, -0.69%UK FTSE 100 -0.22%Spain’s Ibex -0.47%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.02% As London/European traders exit, the US indices are mixed with the small-cap Russell 2000

The Wall Street Journal is gated but if you can access this it paints a dour outlook for China’s economy: Growth is slowing and becoming more unbalanced, propped up by exports and a gusher of investment into factories, while much of the rest of the economy languishes. Consumers are reining in spending, the housing market

France’s President Macron accepts French governments resignation: Current government is to stay on in caretaker capacity until a new cabinet is formed. Via the presidential office, Renaming Attal as caretaker prime ministerCalled on Republican forces (Not the RN or LFI) to work together to form a new government Following the recent legislative elections in which

Prior was 264.5K (revised to 264.9K)Single detached +2% vs +2% priorMulti-urban starts -12% vs +13% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 43Current sales 47 vs 48 priorSix month sales 48 vs 47 prior Lumber prices have been really struggling and that’s not a good sign for any pickup in building this year. A rate cut might start to help in 2025 but I don’t know if 1-2 cuts this year will do it. This

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with an economy

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that spot Ether ETF trading is likely to begin next week. According the story: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has informed several asset managers that the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding ether could launch next Tuesday, July 23.The SEC is expected to declare fund-registration statements effective next

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, the only notable event is the Eurozone ZEW, which has been improving steadily since October 2022 and it recently touched the highest level since 2021. The consensus sees a pullback to 48.1 vs. 51.3 prior, but in the big picture it shouldn’t change anything. The attention will then switch to the

Dollar keeps steadier so far on the day, eyes on US retail sales laterUS retail sales gains more attention as Japan eyes big data to interveneBOJ data suggests Japan also intervened in the FX market on 12 JulyEurozone May trade balance €13.9 billion vs €15.0 billion priorGermany July ZEW survey current conditions -68.9 vs -74.5