The signs were already building yesterday, with sellers testing the waters below the 200-day moving average (blue line). That is eventually leading to a break of the May low today and the momentum continues to run. Well, it’s definitely not looking pretty on the charts. In terms of catalysts, people are pointing to Mt. Gox […]

It’s jobs day! Be sure to read: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blow The market is antsy about a softening economy so I don’t think a weak report will goose risk assets the way it used to, but that remains to be seen. A strong report would likely

We have to return politics to public servicesWe must show that politics can be a force for goodOur task is nothing less than renewing the ideas that hold the country togetherVows a transformed Labour party, pledges to govern for the whole country It’s pretty much his winning speech, so it’s mostly just rousing remarks. Sunak

Coincident index 116.5 vs 115.2 prior The assessment of the coincident index has been changed as being from “signaling a possible turning point” previously to now “halting to fall”. That comes amid the uptick in recent sentiment as evident by the improvement in the readings above. The leading index is also seen at the highest

I posted on this earlier: The PBOC is preparing capacity for large scale yuan bond sales Bloomberg (gated) had the report. The PBOC is preparing to step into the Chinese government bond market in a larger way, seeking to stem the bond rally by selling medium- and long-term bonds it plans to borrow from the

Victor Orban met with Putin today and now we get comments from the Russian President: We are grateful for the visit to MoscowOrban relayed to us the western point of viewRelations with the EU are at their lowest pointOrban called for ceasefireKyiv does not want to stop the war until it’s wonWe discussed possible ways

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The GBP,

Prior was +272K (revised to +218K) Details of the May 2024 jobs report: Two-month net revision -111K vs -15K priorUnemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.0% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.0%Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.5% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.4% vs 7.4% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/mAverage hourly earnings +3.9% y/y

The long-term, secular case for gold is that Russia, China, India and the Middle East are buying in increasing amounts. However the gold rally stalled after data revealed that Chinese official gold buying paused in May. There’s also some thing of a mania around gold in Chinese retail circles that argues for caution. However the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

0940 GMT / 0540 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives keynote before the 4th Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture event organized by the Reserve Bank of India I don’t expect him to drop any clues on the NFP, if he even has any. But still, Williams is always worth

Fundamental Overview After a couple of weeks of consolidation, the S&P 500 this week found some footing and eventually extended the rally into a new all-time high following the soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view

We still have a way to go to reach our 2% target on a sustained basis. We are committed to getting the job done.Uncertainty will continue to be the defining characteristic of the monetary policy landscape for the foreseeable future. There’s nothing new here that he hasn’t already said recently. This article was written by

Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.2% The reading is marginally off estimates but a better revision is seen for April at least. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY tells a story of a market that isn’t sure what it wants to do with the non-farm payrolls data. The headline beat estimates but it’s clearly a dovish report with large downward revisions, higher unemployment and weak private payrolls. “Overall, it was a softer read on the labor market, albeit not dramatically weaker,” writes

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The AUD,

Discover how to accurately spot and trade the inverted hammer across different markets and timeframes The post The Inverted Hammer (A Definitive Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The broad TOPIX index of Japanese stocks hit a record high on Thursday, finally surpassing the high set in December of 1989. Comments via an analyst at Swiss private bank Julius Baer, in summary indicate further upside ahead, citing: corporate reformscurrency and flowspay hikesearnings revisionsgeopoliticslarge market caps are adding to the positive outlook for Japanese

In the Asian session, Eamonn published a nice article on the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction. Here’s what Eamonn wrote on this topic: WHY THE RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS IMPORTANT Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to

European Central Bank President Lagarde spoke with Portuguese TV, RTP on Thursday: “We have to remain vigilant and we have to be confident that inflation is continuously down and that the data that we receive on wages, on profit, on activity, reinforce our confidence that we are on a path to win the fight,” More:

What a mauling. Among the big names on the list are Penny Mordaunt, leader of the House of Commons, and Grant Shapps, defence minister. The eleven in total now surpasses the previous record of seven Cabinet ministers losing their seats in 1997, when Tony Blair brought the Labour party to power at the time. The

There’s not much in it among major currencies but the dollar is continuing to hold more sluggish on the week. EUR/USD is holding within a 20 pips range today, up 0.1% to 1.0825 while USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 160.73. The latter started to lose some steam in trading yesterday and the near-term chart reflects

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The CAC 40 index has bounced back quite well this week, up around 3% and erasing the losses from the week before. Still, we’re not out of the tunnel yet. The second round of the French elections is coming up later

It’s ok to fall. It’s not ok to stay there. Perhaps that’s the new motto at Elon Musk’s Tesla. The company has erased its year-to-date losses by adding a remarkable $150 billion in market value in just three days. Just a few months ago, Tesla was a laughingstock on Wall Street. Wells Fargo famously called

Prior -€7.58 billion; revised to -€7.56 billion Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

● The US Department of Labor will release its report on Friday, the 5th of July. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have declined to 190,000 in June. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.0%. ● Since the beginning of the year, the interest of financial market participants has increasingly shifted towards data

Via The Block: Collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Mt Gox moved over 47,000 BTC -6.22% to another wallet late evening on Thursdaycomes ahead of its impending $9 billion worth of bitcoin repayment to creditors, “This significant payout, amounting to US$9 billion, is expected to add substantial selling pressure as the market absorbs the additional supply,” CoinDesk adds:

Mt Gox and German cops hit Bitcoin lower, under US$56KEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking again on FridayJapan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is pushing up import costsNew York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks on Friday, pre NFPMore on the People’s Bank of China move to stabilize government bond yeildsPBOC sets USD/

Today is an important day for financial markets as we will get to see the latest US NFP report. The Fed is now more focused on the labour market than inflation, and an unexpected deterioration might force their hand to cut rates. The European session is pretty empty on the data front as we will

Via CNBC: Disney heiress, wealthy Democratic donors say they won’t finance the party until Joe Biden drops out Abigail Disney: “I intend to stop any contributions to the party unless and until they replace Biden at the top of the ticket. This is realism, not disrespect. Biden is a good man and has served his

French poll puts National Rally well short of absolute majorityA Fed official highlighted ‘some warning signs the real economy is weakening’ Here are twoPreview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blowECB accounts show some mixed views on confidence towards inflation outlook Markets: US equities and fixed income closedWTI crude

The data we just had was very disappointing indeed: Japan data – May household spending -1.8% y/y (expected +0.1%) A Japanese government official: higher food prices pushed down spendingweaker yen pushed down overseas package tour spending The thing about the weaker yen is its also contributed to a massive surge of inbound tourism into Japan,

USD/JPY had popped earlier on the poor spending data: Japan data – May household spending -1.8% y/y (expected +0.1%) After highs circa 161.40 USD/JPY gave it all back. The momentum was added to by a little more aggression in the comments from Japan’s finance minister Suzuki earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD and a rather large one at that at the 1.0800 mark. However, the US holiday yesterday and dollar sluggishness on the week has seen price action move beyond the range of what I would’ve expected to be the upper

The UK election came in pretty much as expected: UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incomingGBP is little changed after the UK election exit pollUK political stability (relative to elsewhere) will support UK markets aheadElection result gives green light to August BoE rate cut – GBP

GBP is little changed. *** Joint exit poll from BBC, ITV and Sky News show a huge landslide to the Labour Party. Labour to win 410 seats, the most by any party since 2001Conservatives routed with 131 seats, the fewest since the party was founded in 1834 The others: Liberal Democrats on 61Reform UK on

A note from Bank of America prior to the election said that it appeared to be a non-event for UK markets. Which was correct given the opinion polls overwhelmingly favouring the new government. UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incomingGBP is little changed after the UK

1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time: Introductory remarks followed by Q&A by ECB board member Frank Elderson in panel “Embedding data culture in supervision” at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conference organised by the Financial Conduct Authority 17515 GMT / 1315 US Eastern time: On-stage conversation with ECB President Christine Lagarde and

People’s Bank of China said to be readying capacity for ‘hundreds of billions’ in yuan bond sales. Aimed at tempering the bond rally by creating a multibillion-yuan pool of bonds it’ll borrow from major banks, then sell themWill buy and sell bonds ‘based on market conditions.to borrow bonds on an open-ended unsecured basisPBOC has signed

You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the

Exit poll here: UK exit poll tips a solid win to Labour, 410 seats – new UK government incoming GBP/USD is around 1.2759, barely changed EUR/GBP also little changed around 0.8473 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

None of the data from Japan today is likely to impact major FX rates (yen specifically) upon release. Traders will be biding their time, waiting for the NFP: Preview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers — the headwinds are starting to blow This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times

I say ‘near certain’ to be conservative, but to find another election that’s so clear cut as this you’d have to head to Russia or China and the ilk. Anyway, the exit poll is are due, from the BBC, Sky, and ITV, at 10pm London time, which is 5pm US Eastern time (and 2100 GMT

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +190K (Goldman Sachs at the low at +140K, FAO Economics at the high at +250K)May +272K vs +185K expectedPrivate +160K estimate vs +229K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.0% vs 4.0% priorParticipation rate: 62.5% priorPrior underemployment U6 7.4%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% y/y vs +4.1% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3%

ETH has been losing ground since early last month. Its extended the loss a little more today: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1% With it being a US holiday today, the market mood is looking rather subdued. Major currencies also aren’t up to much with narrow ranges still holding for the most part. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Some members felt that the data available since the last meeting had not increased their confidence that inflation would converge to the 2% target by 2025These members also viewed risks to the inflation outlook as being tilted to the upsideWage growth had surprised to the upside and inflation seemed to be stickierServices inflation momentum was

The main line of thinking on bitcoin is that the recent round of selling pressure is related to the distribution of the 141,000 bitcoin from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy. It’s hard to imagine that was 10 years ago but at the time bitcoin was trading at around $600. It will likely turn out that holding

I spoke with Andy Bell at BNNBloomberg yesterday in a wide-ranging interview about the state of global markets and what’s coming in a cyclical slowdown. I also got to touch on the disruption coming from AI and why central bankers are wrong about inflation. Some highlights: Canadian Dollar and Interest Rates: “Canada is a country

Australia – trade balance for May 2024 The rise in exports is the best in 9 months, but this was overshadowed by the rise in imports. A huge turnaround in imports from the -7% drop in April. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I have a hard time imagining the UK election will be much of a market mover, given that the results have been a foregone conclusion since the start of the campaign. It will be a Labour majority, and a large one. How large? We will get a good idea at 10 pm London time, which

On Tuesday, comments from Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee got my attention. He took a more cautious stance on the economy and said he sees “some warning signs the real economy is weakening.” He also spent the past year talking about the potential for a ‘golden path’ or soft landing but sounded more cautious, saying

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.8%French CAC +0.8%Italy MIB +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.1% I have a longstanding belief that you should always buy equity indexes ahead of election results. They create so much angst but very little change and the market generally breathes a sigh of relief, no matter the results. This

Prior 2.4% The Swiss jobless rate remains table in June, with the number of registered unemployed persons falling to 104,518 from 105,465 in May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Yesterday we got some notable misses in the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI. Intial Claims remain pretty much stable around cycle lows and inside the 200K-250K range created since 2022. This shows that layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels, which is also something that we’ve seen from the

Prior 54.7 Overall activity continues to expand in the UK construction sector, although the rise has cooled since the month before. That owes to a renewed downturn in housing activity. Meanwhile, commercial activity continues to expand at a sharp rate and that is helped by a modest rise in civil engineering activity as well. S&P

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke with UK media, BBC radio: getting inflation back to 2% will take time still much data to be had on the economywarns against prolonged high interest rates This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a US holiday so I’m taking all the market moves today with a grain of salt but the general theme is US dollar selling, perhaps in a delayed reaction to yesterday’s weak ISM services reading (it fell to a four-year low). In the past few hours, the euro has taken advantage and is now

Firms are telling us that wage pressures are coming down In other words, he’s trying to maintain the narrative that they believe inflation will continue to ease going into next year. And more importantly, that price pressures will continue to converge towards their 2% target. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There is an increasingly-clear picture of a French parliament with a hard split between the left and right, leaving the centrists as the kingmakers. it takes 289 seats to achieve an absolute majority and the latest poll from IFOP projects: Far right National Rally at 210-240 seatsLeft wing New Popular Front at 170-200 seatsMacron’s centrists

Trading conditions today will be marred by the US holiday, so there might not be much in it. Major currencies are holding in tight ranges so far today after having seen the dollar ease slightly yesterday on the back of a softer US ISM services PMI here. Meanwhile, equities continue to rip higher and that’s

Earlier : Ongoing Washington machinations – Biden and Harris to meet with Democrat Governors.Kamala Harris memecoin KAMA has rocketed higherTrump says Biden is quitting the race, “that means we have Kamala.”Biden met with Democrat state governors – Biden determined to beat Trump at ballot box Reuters with more info on Wednesday evening (US time) developments:

Yesterday, I spoke with Kitco News in a great interview with Jeremy Szafron that focused on the US dollar and the macro outlook. Some highlights: Federal Reserve’s Strategy: “I think in this instance it’s going to be especially damaging for the Federal Reserve because they…always fight the last war. They’re fighting inflation and the market

It’s election day in the UK but there is no mystery about what is going to happen. The Conservatives are going down in flames with YouGov’s MRP poll forecasting Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. That would leave

Headlines: The UK heads to the polls todayWhat has changed after yesterday’s US data?Bitcoin drops again, faces mounting technical pressureECB’s Lane: Wage tracker shows much lower wage growth in 2025 and 2026ECB accounts show some mixed views on confidence towards inflation outlookGermany May industrial orders -1.6% vs +0.5% m/m expectedGermany June construction PMI 39.7 vs

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan earthquake – M5.4, off Chiba prefectureJapan stocks – Topix index, and Nikkei have each hit a record highECB speakers on Thursday, 4 July 2024 include Lane, McCaul and CipolloneBiden: “No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end”Ether has dipped to its lowest since May 20Australian May

Today the US is on holiday for Independence Day and the calendar is pretty much empty. The main event was the Swiss CPI which missed expectations and should raise a bit more the chances of another rate cut in September. We will also have the UK general election where the Labour party is expected to

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

The UK election is today, Thursday, 4 July 2024. The Labour Party is set to win in a landslide. This via Goldman Sachs, in summary (from a much longer piece) of the economic outlook under the new government: Taken together, we would look for slightly stronger near-term growth and slightly higher inflation under a Labour

Here is the link for the video, may be gated: Trump Caught on Video Claiming ‘Broken-Down’ Biden Has Quit: ‘It’s Kamala’ Trump called US President Biden a “broken-down pile of crap” “He just quit, you know—he’s quitting the race,” Trump says, sitting in a golf cart. “I got him out of the—and that means we

After what looked to be a hold of the $60,000 mark has quickly turned ugly for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency dipped in trading yesterday and is continuing that drop today under the figure level. Of note, the low earlier even briefly touched below $57,000 and is threatening a bigger break on the charts. The 200-day moving

If you’re American, the bad news is that US markets are closed today. The good news is that your local furniture retailer is having their ‘biggest sale of the year’. It’s a strange week in trading that’s generally followed the script. The week of July 4th is seasonally one of the strongest of the year

Japan’s Topix hit a record high on Thursday rose to as high as 2,890.52, breaking a high of 2,885.50 set in December 1989also beat a record closing high of 2,884.80 on the same day *** TOPIX is the Tokyo Price Index covers all domestic companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

J.​P. Morgan says the rally in crypto/​bitcoin so far this year has fueled much of the growth in stablecoins: In contrast to last year when market participants were still reeling from the collapses of several high-​profile crypto entities, the regional banking crisis, and of course, the Fed’​s tightening campaign, the stablecoin market is growing once

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold broke out of the recent range and extended the rally following some weak US data. In fact, the Continuing Claims rose to a new high and the ISM Services PMI hit a new cycle low. That made the real yields to drop and gold to accelerate to the upside. This has

It’s not much but the dollar is looking a little sluggish, keeping with the drop from yesterday. EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.0800 still, holding at the upper bound for the week. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is now down 0.4% and dipping just under the 161.00 mark: What is notable in the chart above is that buyers

Fundamental Overview The USD yesterday weakened across the board following soft US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The

0900 GMT / 0500 US Eastern time: Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture by ECB board member Philip Lane at the University of Naples Federico II Lane spoke earlier this week:ECB’s Lane: June inflation data seems in line with our assessment 05:35 Participation by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul in 28th Annual Economist

Major currencies are already largely lacking appetite, with small changes and tight ranges holding. The dollar was weaker yesterday, following the softer US ISM services PMI here. The moves were decent with EUR/USD pushing the boundaries near 1.0800 but is holding just below the figure level for now. But with it being the 4th of

I’m not sure how heavily you weigh this because I believe you talk like you’re going to stay in until it becomes hopeless. Very few people in history have given up power gracefully, that’s just the nature of power. Here is what Biden told the campaign call, according to a Politico reporter: “Let me say

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for NZD/USD at the 0.6130 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance but could play a role in keeping a lid on price action amid holiday-thin trading today. The overnight high hit 0.6129 in trading yesterday,

Epicenter: Off Chiba Prefecture. N 35.2 , E 140.5 Depth: 50 kilometers Preliminary magnitude: 5.4 Seismic intensity scale: 4 out of maximum 7 (this is the Japanese scale) Note: No tsunami warning issued Yen unmoved This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.4%Core CPI +1.1% y/yPrior +1.2% If the SNB needs a reason to pause on rate cuts, they certainly can point to this. At the same time, the inflation trend here fits with the change in their decision to go from FX sales to FX purchases in Q1 this year. That considering core inflation has

After a bit of a stutter following the opening gap higher on Monday, the pair is making up for that now in a push towards 1.0800. The high yesterday briefly broke the figure level but the close ultimately settled below that. And more importantly, sellers maintained a close below the confluence of the 100 (red

Prior -0.2%; revised to -0.6% That’s not a pretty number with a softer revision in April to boot. If you strip out large orders, incoming orders in May were down 2.2% relative to the month before. Looking at the details, the drop owes much to a decline in foreign orders (2.8%) while domestic orders were

I thought KAMA was the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average. I need to get with the times! KAMA meme coin chart via Coingecko” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The early results will only start to trickle in late in the day (or should I say night), so just be wary of that. The pound will stay in focus as such but much of the results should already be priced in. Labour is expected to sweep the elections comfortably, so we’ll see by what

Prior 38.5 Though an improvement, the reading is still a very poor one and reflects the massive struggle in Germany’s construction sector. Total activity is still seen contracting but at the slowest pace in 10 months while new orders saw its softest drop in 16 months at least. While housing activity is continuing to pick

It’s a subdued data agenda ahead for today, Japan weekly flows and Australian May trade data is about it. Speaking of Japan, trading of US Treasuries (physical) will be closed for the 04 July 2024 US holiday. The UK election voting kicks off in a few hours time. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data

Standard Chartered analysts on BTC: if Biden drops out, the price of bitcoin could drop to $50,000bitcoin prices will stay soft if Biden is supplanted by alternative candidates But, otherwise: BTC to 100K USD by election day (Trump favours crypto over Biden) *** Previously Barclays had an end-2024 price estimate to $150,000 This article was

Adam spoke in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, on CAD and also the UK election and what it means for GBP Video link is here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had the heads up yesterday that US President Biden would be meeting with Democrat Governors at the White House Thursday evening scheduled for 6.30 pm US Eastern time Vice President Harris will be there also. Via Political Campaign Reporter @CBSNews: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Journal (may be gated) with a piece on a barely concealed network of buyers, sellers and couriers bypassing the Biden administration’s restrictions aimed at denying China access to Nvidia’s advanced AI chips. More than 70 distributors are openly advertising online what they purport to be Nvidia’s restricted chips, This is an interesting read. Its

The FOMC meeting minutes have been released from the June meeting: Vast majority of participants at Fed’s June 11-12 meeting assessed U.S. economic growth appeared to be gradually cooling, minutes showMost participants saw current policy stance as restrictiveA number of participants said policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weaknessSeveral specifically emphasized further

Biden-Harris campaign issues readout with democratic govs. Biden determined to beat Trump at ballot box, campaign says Minnesota Governor Walz says had a good conversation with US President Biden and that Biden is fit for office Maryland Governor Moore says Democratic Governors announced they will support Biden in the election – I’ve always thought that

All US stock and bond markets are closed US Bond markets closedFX desks will be skeleton staff, if any At the CME, the major venue for popular products such as ES and NQ, equity index futures trade: Currently open, Globex tradeThursday, July 4th 12:00pm trade halts, then at 5:00pm it re-opens Friday, July 5th Regular

The news of Marko Kolanovic leaving JP Morgan is all over the place. While details are thin (basically non-existent) the speculation is his departure comes due to being bearish during the enormous surge for US stocks. Dow Jones/Market Watch with the background: Kolanovic’s departure from the bank follows a two-year stretch of disappointing market calls

New Zealand updates its budget deficit 11 months into its financial year. deficit is NZD 7.75bn for the 11 months, which is 1bn lower than was forecast. One of the bear arguments for NZ is its fiscal woes. At the margin, then, this is a bit of encouraging news. This article was written by Eamonn

The USDCAD has continued its move to the downside today on the back of lower rates and the weaker US data, Technically, the price moved below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday, and remained below those MAs in the early Asian session today, before moving lower on the data. The

Oil finishes the day strong to end $1 higher as it caps fourth straight week of gainsBiden says on campaign call that he’s not dropping out – reportFOMC meeting minutes: vast majority saw the growth gradually coolingECBs Stournaras: Two more rate cuts in 2024 seems reasonableAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q falls to 1.5%

There are strong signs of travel demand in the US this 4th long weekend, with air bookings setting records. Combine that with a big draw in US inventories in today’s report and a hurricane in the Atlantic and gold finished the week strong. There was something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade immediately after the

ECBs Stournaras is saying: Two more rate cuts this year it seems reasonableRecent data strengthens the case for more cuts a littleRates will still be restrictive, after two more cutsService inflation shouldn’t be over-interpreted A bit more dovish than others. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It remains to me a mystery how Marko Kolanovic became chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan. He was famous as an expert on market plumbing, particularly in fixed income. He had never been someone who people turned to for macro views. But he got headlines and evidently that was enough for him to get the

European major indices are closing the day with solid gains. The advances are led by the Spain’s Ibex which rose 1.32%. Other major indices increased by 1% or more with the exception of the UK FTSE 100 ahead of its elections tomorrow. The final numbers show: German DAX, +1.16%France CAC, +1.24%UK FTSE 100, +0.61%Spain’s Ibex

Bloomberg is reporting that dozens of U.S. House Democratic lawmakers are considering sending Pres. Biden a letter demanding that he withdraw from the race. There were reports that Biden spoke with key Democratic leader Schumer. The New York Times reported that an ally of Biden told them that the president was considering dropping out if

Final Services PMI 52.1 vs. 51.2 prelim and 52.9 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.3 vs. 51.7 prelim and 53.0 prior. Key findings: UK Services Business Activity Index falls to seven- month low. Demand for services improves, but at relatively soft pace.Confidence dips slightly amid general election uncertainty. Comment: Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market

Prior week 233K revised to 234Kinitial jobless claims 238K versus 235K estimate4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 238.5K vs 236.25K last weekContinuing jobless claims 1.858M versus 1.840M estimateContinue claims last week 1.839M revised to 1.832M4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.831M versus 1.814M . This is the highest level since December 4, 2021 This

DB on key risks ahead for the second half of 2024, with a more general warning mixed in that “surprises can be just around the corner” Economic data has been surprising on the downside over recent weeks Investors are becoming more nervous about fiscal policy given higher levels of debt and interest rates Inflation lingering

More record closes for the S&P and Nasdaq indices with the Nasdaq leading the way. Lower yields and talk that Biden would look to step down, seemed to give investor some confidence. Tomorrow the US stocks will be closed in observance of the July 4 holiday. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average

Retail Sales come in stronger than expected. Comments from the Australian Bureau of Statistics playing down the strong results: “Retail turnover was boosted this month by watchful shoppers taking advantage of early end-of-financial year promotions and sales events. “Retail businesses continue to rely on discounting and sales events to stimulate discretionary spending, following restrained spending

Pres. Biden reportedly told an ally that he is weighing whether to continue in the race. That is according to the New York Times: President Biden acknowledges his candidacy may be at risk if he cannot convince the public of his capability after a poor debate performance.He understands that his upcoming appearances, including an interview

AP had the report: Taiwan said the Chinese coast guard boarded a Taiwanese fishing boat Tuesday before steering it to a port in mainland China, and demanded that Beijing release the vessel.boat had six crew onboardvessel was just over 20 kilometers (12 miles) away from Jinjiang in mainland China when it was boarded, Taiwanese authorities

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.4% After the losses yesterday, European indices are looking to bounce back again after the rise in US equities. Although tech shares led gains, the Dow also ended up by 0.4% and that exemplifies the broader market mood. But for Europe, there is still the risk of the French

One for the won traders This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The weekly EIA oil inventory data shows : Crude stocks down 12.157 million barrels to 448.54 million, vs forecast of 0.7 million barrel drawGasoline stocks down 2.214 million barrels to 231.67 million, vs forecast of 1.3 million barrel drawDistillate stocks down 1.535 million barrels to 119.73 million, vs forecast of 1.2 million barrel drawCushing up

The value of R-Star is always highly uncertainBut the case for a sizable increase has yet to meet two important testsRecent data reinforce the continuation of pre-pandemic trends in global demographics and productivity growthOne should not overly rely on estimates of R-Star in determining appropriate monetary policy setting at a given point in time This

Final Services PMI 53.1 vs. 53.5 prelim and 54.2 prior.Final Composite PMI 50.4 vs. 50.6 prelim and 52.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 53.1 (May: 54.2). 3-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 50.4 (May: 52.4). 3-month low. Cost inflation lowest since March 2021. Comment: Commenting on

US-based employers announced 47,786 job cuts in June, which is roughly 20% higher than the same month a year ago. The monthly pace of layoffs has been easing a touch since February, so that’s a slight positive. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

And it is expected to be a rather one-sided affair, with Labour set to claim victory for the first time in 14 years. So, how and what is the impact of this going to be on the pound? The expectation here is that it is going to be a landslide victory for Starmer and his

Prior month 53.8business activity index 49.6 versus 61.2 last monthemployment 46.1 versus 47.1 last monthnew orders 47.3 versus 54.1 last monthprices paid 56.3 versus 58.1 last monthsupplier deliveries 52.2 versus 52.7 last monthinventories 42.9 versus 52.1 last monthbacklog of orders 44.0 versus 50.8 last monthnew export orders 51.7 versus 61.8 last monthimports 44.0 versus 42.8

Prior month 152K revised higher to 157Kgoods +14 Kservices it was 138Ksmall firms +5Kmedian +88Klarge companies +58Kleisure and hospitality 63Kconstruction 27Kprofessional and business services +25Ktrade and transportation/utilities +15Knatural resources/mining -8KThe median wage for job stayers came in at 4.9% YoY versus 5.0% last month. For job changers, the wages rose 7.7% versus 7.8% last month.

Prior month $-74.6BUS international trade $-75.1B vs $-76.2 billion estimate.Goods trade balance $–99.37B vs $-100.68 prior monthservices trade surplus $25.1 billionexport $261.7 billion or -0.7%imports $336.7 billion or -0.3% the US trade data is in reality a trade deficit each and every month. The deficits have been rising of the late (see chart below) but

The USDCHF moved lower after the weaker than expected US data today. However, after breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 0.90134, its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.89972, support buyers came in against the key 100-day moving average at 0.89836. Recall from Friday last week and Monday’s trade this week,

Prior 49.3Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.2 prelimPrior 48.9 The higher revision means that the French services sector only marginally contracted in June, as the sharpest fall in new orders since January weighed on output. Besides that, there’s also softening in sentiment amid the elections with business confidence easing alongside jobs growth. HCOB notes that: “Election

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 2Q falls to 1.5% from 1.7% after recent data. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.5 percent on July 3, down from 1.7 percent on July 1. After this morning’s releases

Bloomberg have the report (may be gated): Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials familiar with the matter said, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that western officials have warned against. For potential investors

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% This follows from the losses yesterday, which tempered with some of the gains on Monday. French politics will remain a focus but there’s a balance to be struck as US stocks continue to rip higher in general. This article was written

Over the weekend we had the official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) China PMIs for June China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole followed on Monday by the Caixin / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 51.8 (expected 51.2, prior 51.7) Today we get the Caixin

NASDAQ and S&P indices close at record levelsCrude oil futures settle at $82.81The NY judge has postponed the sentencing of Donald Trump to September 18Biden to give interview to ABC News with first clip to air on FridayBiden’s odds plummet as Demoratic lawmaker calls for Presidential race withdrawalTesla shares digging itself out of the hole,

The New York Times reports that President Joe Biden told an ally that he is weighing whether to continue in the Presidential race. This is the first concrete sign that he’s considering the exit. “President Biden has told a key ally that he knows he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he

Prior month 0.7%Factory goods orders MoM -0.5% versus 0.2% estimateFactory orders ex transportation MoM -0.7% vs 0.7% last month revised 2+0.5%Durable goods orders +0.1% vs the preliminary 0.1% gain (released six days ago). Prior month 0.2%Durable goods ex- transportation -0.1% vs -0.1% preliminary. Prior month 0.4%Durable goods nondefense capital expenditures/ex air -0.6% vs -0.6% preliminary.

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.7mn barrelsDistillates -1.2mn bblsGasoline -1.3mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The official

Prior +0.8%Market index 206.5 vs 212.0 priorPurchase index 142.9 vs 147.8 priorRefinance index 544.1 vs 552.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.03% vs 6.93% prior Mortgage applications fell in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity also declining. It comes as the average rate of the most popular US home loan rises back above the

Global services PMI last month 54.8S&P global services PMI index for June 55.3 vs 51.1S&P global composite PMI index for June 54.8 versus 54.6 preliminaryPrior month composite index 54.5 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video for July 3, 2024, I take a look at three the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the price action telling traders about the technical bias, the risk, and the targets as the clock ticks toward the early closing stocks and bonds

Today’s stock market overview: Spotlight on healthcare and tech Today’s trading session presents a nuanced landscape, highlighted by disparate sector performances and sizable moves in key tech and healthcare stocks, as observed in the latest stock market heatmap. Let’s dive into the sectors and stocks that have defined the market today. 🔍 Sector Overview Semiconductors:

Services PMI 53.7 vs. 53.7 expected and 54.2 prior.Composite PMI 51.3 vs. 52.3 prior. Key findings: Growth of activity and new business ease, but are solid overall. Cost pressures abate slightly. Strongest optimism towards the year-ahead outlook since early 2022. Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, Economist at Hamburg Commercial

It’s a lively time in markets and opportunity is everywhere. I’m hosting a 30 minute webinar today the five magic words that I often repeat to myself and others that have saved me from trouble and helped me immensely. I’ll tell some stories and take some questions too. Sign up here. This article was written

Prior month C$-1.32 billion revised from C$-1.05 billion. The deficit has been negative for three consecutive monthsTrade balance for May 2024 C$-1.93 billion versus C$-1.20 billionexports Canadian dollars C$62.45 billion versus C$64.11 billion last monthimports C$64.37 billion versus C$65.43 billion last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are implying a mixed opening after record closes in the S&P and NASDAQ indices yesterday. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are looking to open marginal lower. The Dow Industrial Average averages up by a small margin: Dow industrial average futures are implying a 20 point gainS&P futures are implying a

Fundamental Overview Copper has bounced on a key support recently and extended the gains this week following the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI as the survey hit the highest level since May 2021. In the last few weeks, the bearish momentum indeed appeared to be slowing as the lower lows became shallower. All else being equal,

The US dollar has moved sharply lower after the weaker then expected ISM nonmanufacturing data (lowest level since the pandemic): USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved below its 100 hour moving average at 161.211, and approaches it’s 200 hour moving average at 160.512. The price has not traded below its 100-hour moving average since June 13

The major US stock indices are trading mixed in early trading ahead of the early close at 1 PM. Tomorrow the US stock market will be closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday. The bond market today closes at 2 PM ET and will be closed tomorrow as well: Dow Industrial Average average is

ECBs Vasle is speaking and says: ECB must be mindful of inflation risks and not rush into next rate cut.If inflation falls as projected, then market rate cut expectations are broadly in line with my views Tthe market is expecting wanted to cuts between now and the year end. This article was written by Greg

The most-compelling thing I’ve heard about Joe Biden this week is this: If his debate performance as a one-off, he would be scrambling to do interview after interview, press conference after press conference. Instead, he’s done some scripted rallies, reading from a teleprompter. Yes, he sounded a bit better but the unwillingness to put himself

Another strong month for technology majors propelled US stock indices to all-time highs. The outlook remains positive, supported by inflation approaching the 2% target. Specifically, in May 2024, the nation’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index was unchanged from April, while the core PCE index rose by 0.1%. Of course, one swallow does not make

As the North American session begins the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed/little changed with gains vs the JPY and NZD, declines vs the EUR and GBP, and little changed vs the other major currencies. The US will have a data down as different loads economic releases

In the European session, we get the release of the final services PMIs for the major European countries and the UK. The final readings are rarely market moving because the market focuses more on new information. We will also get the Eurozone PPI but that’s a two month old data and remains in negative territory.

An ECB sources report on Reuters is saying: ECB policymakers are urging a review of consequences of QE policiespolicymakers question the commitment to especially forceful or persistent action at the lower boundThe debate is expected be held at the strategy review which is expected to commence soon and and at some point in 2025 This

These are the privately surveyed PMI results from China for June. Caixin PMI Services 51.2 expected 53.4, prior 54.0 Composite 52.8 prior 54.1 The Key points made in the report: Export business growth remains solid despite slowing in line with overall new business Staffing levels fall marginally in June Charges rise only fractionally as input

Closing part of a trade in MT4 isn’t as obvious as it should be. So in this tutorial, I’ll show you exactly how to do it. The process is not hard and once you know how it works, you can take partial profits on your trades at any time. First, let’s take a look at

Headlines: Sterling looks to UK general election as next key risk eventReminder: US markets will be closed tomorrowJapan reportedly to issue new floating-rate bonds to help investors if BOJ hikes ratesFed’s Williams casts doubt over rise in neutral rateEurozone May PPI -0.2% vs -0.1% m/m expectedEurozone June final services PMI 52.8 vs 52.6 prelimUK June

The dollar remains in a decent spot on the week but major currencies are not really doing a whole lot. It is only the Japanese yen that is seen weakening mostly, with USD/JPY keeping at 161.60 levels currently. The pair is up 0.5% on the week thus far and is on course for a fourth

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.0700 through to 1.0800, with another large one sandwiching that at 1.0750. As such, price action is likely to keep more muted once again with more of the same

Fundamental Overview The USD has been overall rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. All else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup

Southeast Asia is popularly known for its rapidly developing economies. This region can host big financial hubs that play crucial roles in the world’s finance system. These financial centers facilitate international trade, attract investors, and serve as a bridge between Southeast Asia and the global market. This article will explore the top five financial centers

The Japan Ministry of Finance is said to be looking to introduce a new type of floating-rate bond in the market, in order to help investors mitigate the risks from rising bond yields. This comes as Japanese officials are gearing up for more rate hikes by the BOJ. A combination of the BOJ tapering bond

The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $82.81. That is down $0.57 or -0.68%. The price moved lower after trading to a two-month high to $84.38 earlier in the day. That was just $0.08 from the April 26 high target at $84.46 (see chart above). On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of

UBS “see gold as an attractive geopolitical hedge and portfolio diversifier, and rate the metal as most preferred.” The comments is from a note that makes three central points. In brief: 1. We continue to see a supportive backdrop for global equities expect … inflation normalizescentral banks embark on an easing cycle 2. We think

First, the non-political bit: A big question for markets right now. If Biden stays on it seems to gift the Presidency to Trump. Most market analysts expect this’ll lead to higher deficits, higher inflation, and a lower US dollar. OK, onto the politics. Axios: A pre-planned meeting of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC)Much

Prior 53.2Composite PMI 50.9 vs 50.8 prelimPrior 52.2 Both the services and composite readings are three-month lows, reaffirming a slowdown in the economy towards the end of Q2. Of note, demand for euro area goods and services decreased for first time since February. The good news is that as a whole, price pressures are seen

China’s ruling party will hold its third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee on 15-18 July. The focus will be on the reform of the economic system. Expectations for additional stimulus measures remains low though. Key areas of focus include: stimulating domestic demandenhancing the efficiency and quality of economic

Fundamental Overview The USD has been overall rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. All else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup

Prior -1.0% If you strip out energy prices, producer prices were actually up 0.1% in May. Here is the breakdown on the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Australia data – Building permits come in better than expected Most of the focus is on the retail sales result, a strong one. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on the line up of European Central Bank speakers: European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks again on Wednesday At 1100 GMT / 0700 US Eastern time Williams participates in “Panel 2: Drivers of Equilibrium Interest Rates” before hybrid European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2024. As head of the NY Fed

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Will have a private lunch with Vice President Harris on Wednesday It’d be great to be a fly on the wall at this. will be meeting in the Roosevelt Room at 6:30pm with Democratic governors. Given all the pressure on Biden to bow out of the Presidential contest this meeting is going to fuel intense

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 56.9Composite PMI 55.8Prior 56.6 The reading is just marginally softer than the 13-month high in May, reaffirming that business activity remains robust in Spain’s services sector. The only downside is that the trend in prices is still strong, so that’s not too comforting on the inflation front. HCOB notes that: “The Spanish services sector

The better data points are here: Australia data – Building permits, May 2024: +5.5% m/m (expected +1.6%)Australia data – Retail Sales May 2024: +0.6% m/m (exp +0.2%) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The private survey of oil stocks is out, and its a monster draw: Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a much larger headline crude oil draw than expected The official government data is due tomorrow morning out of the US. Oil has been well supported: Analysts at Standard Chartered have a US$90 target, and beyond,

New York Fed President Williams is speaking on WednesdayEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaks again on WednesdaySouth Korea’s PM says the interest rate path to head downwardsUS President Biden will have a private lunch with Vice President Harris on WednesdayChina Caixin June services PMI 51.2 (expected 53.4, prior 54.0)AUD/USD pops a little on better than

As an aside, do be aware that it also means that US markets will close early today as well. All of this makes for another awkward week of sorts with a break in the middle again. That being said, there is the US non-farm payrolls report still to come on Friday. So, it isn’t going

de Guindos at 0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time Cippollone at 0900 GMT / 0500 uset Lane at 1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time (you’ll notice the NY Fed’s Williams is on the panel with Lane) Knot at 1230 GMT / 0830 US Eastern time Lagarde at 1415 GMT / 1015 US Eastern

Synopsis: SocGen anticipates USD/JPY to continue its upward trajectory, targeting 161.80 initially and 163.75 subsequently. The pair has broken above an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a resumption of the uptrend, supported by strong momentum. Key Points: Technical Breakout: USD/JPY defended the 50-DMA last month and broke above an ascending triangle, confirming an uptrend.Momentum Indicators: Daily

The NY Judge has postponed the sentencing of Donald Trump after his felony conviction on paying hush money until September 18. The ruling comes after the Supreme Court ruled that former Pres. Trump does retain immunity from his time as President. The question is, does that ruling apply to this specific case? The Pres. was

In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 0.3% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index rose 1.4% in June. As part of the report are comments from ANZ on shipping prices: Global shipping prices continued to firm over the month, particularly impacting bulky low-value goods such as logs. Global shipping routes remain subject to

Australian Judo Bank PMI, the final readings for June 2024: Australian final manufacturing PMI for June plunges further into contraction @ 47.2Services 51.2 (prior 52.5)Composite 50.7 (prior 52.1) These are disappointing results. While Services has remained in expansion, holding the Composite in expansion also, allthree are lower than in May. AUD doesn’t usually respond on

Japan June Services PMI 49.4, first contraction for nearly two years flash 49.8, prior 53.8 Composite 49.7 flash was 50.0 prior 52.6 Earlier: Japan final manufacturing PMI for June 50.0 (prior 50.4) Commentary from the report: The Japanese service sector’s recent strong upturn in business activity ended abruptly in JuneBusiness Activity Index fell by 4.4

A super-strong USD is not new news, but the Brazilian Real has been on the receiving end more than most: Fiscal issues and also tensions between the President and the central bank governor have been amongst the factors weighing on the BRL. Short-term rates surging higher have done little to support the currency. Speculation on

The AUDUSD buyers remain in control with the price above the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Both those MAs come in at 0.6644. The price is currently near 0.6662. Going into the close – and into the new trading day – those MA will be the key barometer for the pair. Staying above

Lloyd Doggett is first Democrat to publicly call for Biden to step down as party’s nominee. “I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same. While much of his work has been transformational, he

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day with both the S&P and NASDAQ index closing a record levels. The Dow Industrial Average would also move higher and closer to it all time record high close at 40003.02. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average rose 162.33 point or 0.41%

Pres. Biden is to give an interview with ABC News with the first clip airing on Friday. The question is will it be live? Will it be unedited? Will the questions be telegraphed before the interview? The American people and the world want to see live, in the moment. There needs to be more transparency

Euro’s lack of faith highlights risks surrounding French electionsStocks stay pressured in European morning tradeEurozone May unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expectedEurozone June preliminary CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expectedECB’s Vasle: We can cut rates further if things go as expectedFed’s Goolsbee: Interest rates are restrictive nowECB’s Centeno: Every meeting is open for us to

The S&P index extended to a new session high at 5489.60, and in the process extended above the highest closing level at 5487.02 from June 18. The high intraday level was at 5523.64 reached on June 28. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 49.3 Commenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The performance of the Canadian manufacturing economy remained subdued in June, with output, new orders, employment and purchasing all falling since the previous month. Panellists noted that underlying market demand remained soft, whilst also commenting that

Fundamental Overview The price action in gold continues to be rangebound amid some mixed drivers. The real yields rose recently and that kept a lid on the upside, but there was no signal of inflationary pressures in the economic data and interest rates expectations remained unchanged. There is a compelling narrative emerging since the Trump-Biden

Tesla reported better deliveries today but are still down on the year: Deliveries 444K vs 387K in Q1Deliveries down 5% y/y The numbers today have Tesla shares trading up $18.41 or 8.78% at $228.27. That comes after a gain of 6.08% yesterday. Since the most recent low on June 11 at $167.41 the price has

Reserve Bank of Australia June meeting minutes. Headlines via Reuters: The RBA Board judged the case for holding rates steady stronger than for hikingNeeded to be vigilant to upside risks to inflation, data suggested upside risk for May CPIEconomic uncertainty meant it was difficult to rule in or out future changes in policyRecent data not

US broader indices are moving higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 0.31% at 17934.70. The high price reached earlier today extended up to 17950.82. Recall yesterday the NASDAQ index closed at a record level. At session lows, the NASDAQ index was down -77.06 points Meanwhile the S&P is back

ECB speakers on Tuesday include Schnabel, de Guindos and President LagardeIncreasing speculation of a PBOC RRR cut this month or nextJapan finance minister Suzuki make some yen commentsFederal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on TuesdayRBA – a material rise in inflation expectations could require significantly higher ratesPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at

On Monday the US Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trump has some immunity from prosecution in his federal election interference case. More here: This case is the first criminal prosecution in our Nation’s history of a former President for actions taken during his Presidency. The decision is what Biden intends to address in

ECBs Makhlouf is getting in line with many other ECB officials saying: I am comfortable with expectations of another interest rate cut 2 cuts is probably going a little bit too far, but wouldn’t rule it out The market is pricing in 1 to 2 interest-rate cuts before the end of the year This article

Two strategists are out with their projections for FOMC rate cuts in 2024: Lazards strategists Temple still sees three cuts by the end of the yearGoldman Sachs expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, followed by quarterly cuts to a terminal rate of 3.25% – 3.5%. Fed’s Powell today passed

Prior month revised to 7.919M from 8.059M previously reportedJOLTs job openings moves higher to 8.140M which is higher than the 7.910M estimate.Vacancy rate 4.9% versus 4.8% last month.Quits rate 2.2% versus 2.2% last month Details of the job openings: Job openings on the last business day of May: 8.1 million (little changed)Year-over-year decrease in job

The US dollar initially rose on the release of the JOLTS data but has since given most of it back. Job openings were at 8.14 million compared to 7.91m expected in May. There were two caveats though: 1) The prior was revised lower. April job openings were trimmed to 7.919m from 8.059m. That April reading

The USDCHF has pushed higher extending modestly the gains seen from yesterday’s trading. That move took the price further into the swing area that was tested yesterday between 0.90449 and 0.90565. If the buyers are to take more control going forward, they need to get and stay above that area. It would then next target

As the North American session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger – but modestly – with gains vs all the major currencies with the exception of the CAD and GBP (which are virtually unchanged). Overnight, ECB core CPI came in stronger at 2.9% versus

Whole milk powder -4.3%Average price $ 3,782 That’s a hit to New Zealand terms of trade but NZD is unmoved. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are opening lower but off their lows from premarket trading. Dow Industrial Average was is trading down -8.9 points or -0.03% at 39149.60S&P index is down -11.33 points despite -0.21% at 5463.90NASDAQ index is down -55 points or -0.30% at 17827.70 The small-cap Russell 2000’s is reacting to lower rates

ECBs Wunsch is on the newswires and says: The first two breakouts are relatively easyThe markets pricing on rate path is reasonableThe ECB would need convincing to cut more than twice this year.A July cut is an option in theory, but in practice ECB must be cautiousECB won’t solve fiscal problems with the use of

The leaders of the Fed and ECB participate in the policy panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra starting at 9:30 am ET. They will be joined by the leader of Brazil’s central bank. No doubt that inflation will be a topic of discussion. CBNC’s Sara Eisen is hosting. This article was

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin suffered a notable correction in June despite a generally positive risk sentiment. Last week, we got a quick drop into a key support zone on the news that Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in July 2024 after years of postponed deadlines. Crypto traders have

But we need more data to confirm inflation trajectoryMust be careful not to declare victory too soonLabour market is very important for next stepsLabour market is still tight, causing wage pressure More of the same stuff as the ECB communique today is very much in sync. The gist of it is that they would like

I still think the ‘golden path’ is possibleHigher inflation this year has mostly looked like a blip, or a bump in the roadIf you take a step back, the arc of inflation is clearly downGoods are basically back to pre-pandemic inflation, services are a bit higher ‘but within shooting distance’, the whole puzzle is housing,

Everyone in the economy can decide our reaction function This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved lower today after breaking above resistance early in the session and failing (at 1.3743/1.37475). The subsequent fall has taken the price back down to tested 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.37145. At session lows, the price is also testing the 50% of the range since the mid

Sector Overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed canvas, particularly emphasizing a tough day for semiconductors contrasted by resilience in other tech entities. Nvidia (NVDA) leads the losses within the semiconductor industry with a significant drop of 2.47%, suggesting investor skepticism or reaction to recent industry news. In contrast, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shows modest

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.4%German DAX -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.6%French CAC -0.3%Italy MIB -0.75%Spain IBEX -1.4% French stocks challenged the June lows today but held and bounced. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s a snapshot of things currently: Eurostoxx -0.9%Germany DAX -1.1%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE -0.3%S&P 500 futures -0.4%Nasdaq futures -0.4%Dow futures -0.3% In Europe, French political worries remain a concern and the inflation data here also continues to keep the ECB from feeling too confident in wanting to cut interest rates further. So, that is

Related to this: “Roaring Kitty” sued for Securities Fraud The case has been dismissed. Thats the latest scuttlebutt on the saga. Source here. Some other confirmation would be great if anyone has it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We want to see more progress on inflationThe latest data shows we’re on a better path on wagesWe would like to see more data like we’ve seeingThe latest PCE at 2.6% shows ‘really significant progress’”We just want to understand that the levels we’re seeing are a true reading on what’s happening in underlying inflation”We have

Some JPY verbal intervention attempts from Japan’s finance minister Suzuki Won’t comment on FX levelsNo change in the government’s stance on FXThe market has been driven by various factors, including sentiment, speculationClosely watching FX moves with vigilance more to come This is mild stuff from Suzuki, but I’ll just point out that the ‘speculation’ word

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Shares of Tesla were lower in the pre-market but rebounded into positive territory on this headline, up 4%. Q2 production 410.8K vs 433.3K in Q1Deliveries 444K vs 387K in Q1Deliveries down 5% y/y There were whisper numbers as low as 423K that got louder after reporting 71K deliveries in China in June. That was down

Fundamental Overview Crude oil extended the gains after breaking above the key $80 resistance as the market eventually caught up to the positive drivers. In fact, we got the OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, and we’ve been seeing a pickup in economic activity. We have also some major central banks beginning to ease their

New Zealand Building Consents for May 2024 come in at -1.7% m/m the prior revised to -2.1% More here at the report from Stats NZ: Annual number of homes consented down 23 percent Earlier from NZ: New Zealand Q2 business confidence collapses further, to -44% (prior -25%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The initial comments from Fed’s Powell has helped to push yields lower with the 10 year yield now down -6.1 basis points. That has also led to a decline in the US dollar: EURUSD is moved above it swing area between 1.07208 to 1.07346. The price high just reached 1.07462. The 50% of the range

Inflation in Australia is, at best, steady and sticky. But, there are indications that its climbing again; last week’s (admittedly partial) CPI data: 4.1% vs 3.8% prior And, a response: The surprising uptick in inflation, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures and the RBA’s current policy bias, strengthens the case Yesterday was more (partial) inflation data:

In the kickstart video for July 2, 2024, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the bias? What are the risk? What are targets? All will be discussed in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

After a brief attempt to hold a firm break above $2,400 in May, gold has settled down to rest in more of a consolidation range since. The technical writing on the wall was a forming head-and-shoulders pattern. But the current shoulder formation is one that is still playing out a fair bit. So, what’s next

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.9%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes despite a modest showing in US stocks yesterday, though largely led by tech shares. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% today, so that isn’t helping with the mood. But in Europe, the relief bounce in French stocks is looking

ECB Pres. Lagarde: It will take time to be certain that inflation is on trackstrong labor market means we have time to gather information. Speaking to the economic uncertainties: Soft landing for euro zone economy not guaranteed.We also need to be mindful of the fact that the growth outlook remains uncertain. Speaking to future uncertainties:

The pair opened with a gap higher to start the week, following the first round of French elections over the weekend. Le Pen’s far-right faction won out, as expected, on course for a relative majority at least. That said, there remains much uncertainty surrounding the final outcome. Even if the National Rally party gains a

Today is going to be a more lively day as we get a couple of market moving data and we will hear from Fed Chair Powell in the US session. Overall, the data will likely keep things unchanged on the interest rates expectations front but should further reaffirm the disinflationary trend. 09:00 GMT – Eurozone

Greg had the news from the Governor of the Nationale Bank van België / Banque Nationale de Belgique and hence European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch: ECBs Wunsch: The markets pricing on rate cuts reasonable Wunsch said the first two European Central Bank rate cuts are relatively easy. Plenty of ECB officials have

I posted earlier on Powell speaking at the ECB forum later today: Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Tuesday In the screenshot below you’ll note plenty of other big wigs on the agenda: de Guindos at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern timeSchnabel at 1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern timejoined by the chief

The euro might have looked fairly optimistic early yesterday but is getting a reality check today. The first round of the French elections showed a clear win for Le Pen’s far-right faction. Although the margin of victory was a little less than expected, it also reaffirmed a failure on Macron’s government in appeasing the people.

Last week Bloomberg posted some views looking for USD/JPY to 170. Sumitomo says 150 could come if the BoJ intervened, but “in the long term, the yen will continue to weaken toward 170” Mizuho “It’s really tempting fate to say ‘you can’t do 170’,”“Is it desirable? No. Is it ruled out as a possibility? Unfortunately

It’s a busy week on the economic calendar but today is quieter, with only the US job openings report. We get non-farm payrolls on Friday and some other high-tier data this week but job openings have been consistently cited by Fed officials as a reason to maintain a dovish bias. Ahead of that report, we

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar showed much resilience in trading yesterday, despite a softer US ISM manufacturing report here. One of the reasons for that has been the continued climb in bond yields, with 10-year yields in the US rising to 4.49% overnight. It is settling around 4.45% so far today but that is still up 26 bps

Fundamental Overview The USD has been overall rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, all else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a

There are some expectations about of a People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut this month, or in August, to boost long term liquidity and support bond buying. Chinese state media, Securities Daily, cite the chief economist at CITIC Securities, saying that the PBOC may adopt measures such as lowering the reserve

The data earlier from New Zealand: New Zealand Q2 business confidence collapses further, to -44% (prior -25%) KiwiBank note, these the main points: Business confidence deteriorated in the June quarter. High interest rates are weighing on demand, with more businesses seeing a decline in trading activity. Weak-to-miserable growth remains the outlook. The most important read

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for today. However, just be wary that there are some big ones layered for EUR/USD especially between 1.0700 to 1.0800 during the week. There will also be ones for Friday as outlined here. That is likely to lock price action in the pair until we get

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for June 2024 0.2% m/m vs. 0.6%in Maythe smallest increase since October 2021 Comment from the report: “This will be of help to shoppers as they plan their household budgets for essential goods and services,” said Mike Watson, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, which provides data for

But should not rush in doing soWe can cut more if baseline projections holdMust be patient with further rate cutsThere is a risk of underestimating inflation stickiness More of the same stuff from the ECB today. They are putting out the narrative that they are ready to cut but that will be subject to inflation

Prior 6.4% The jobless rate in the euro area holds steady at 6.4% and continues to stay thereabouts since last year. So, this isn’t quite a pressing area of concern for the ECB just yet. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.9% Lane tried to play the report down earlier here. But the details certainly isn’t too encouraging for the ECB. Headline annual inflation eased to 2.5% as expected but core annual inflation remains stubborn at 2.9%, unchanged from May. That owes much to services inflation, which remains

As confidence builds, ECB can look at every meeting in making a decisionThere is confidence that inflation will hit 2% target next yearOur baseline projections have proved to be quite solidWe must be prudent on ratesStill hesitant on growth assessmentMonetary policy must aid with economic recovery As much as they’d like to think so, July

A small deviation from the projections would not change this view dramaticallyThere is probably a premium in waiting for a meeting with new forecasts i.e. SeptemberBut I would not make that a conditionDecision to cut rates one more time is a relatively easy oneBut subsequent moves should only come once inflation is closer towards the

But restrictive rates for too long is a problemThere are some warning signs in the jobs marketWe are putting emphasis on jobs reports and price dataThere has been a string of improved inflation readings in the USIt feels like the path back towards 2%If inflation returns to normal, rates will too The part in bold

Biden is delivering remarks on the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, I posted a bit of a heads up here: US President Biden is scheduled to speak at 7.45pm US Eastern time Biden: no Kings in Americano one is above the lawdecision means there are virtually no limits on what a president can do and it

Services inflation remains essentialNeed to take a little bit of time to assess inflation Well, it seems like someone got the June report a little earlier than everyone else. In any case, the individual major country readings did not produce much surprises. It should fit with a mild moderation in price pressures, with headline annual

Uncertainty remains highWe have to be very prudentInflation will have its ups and downs this yearEconomy is to be stronger in 2H than it was in 1H He’s not really giving anything away and the remarks echo what his peers have been saying since last month already. This article was written by Justin Low at

That should roughly translate to monthly purchases of around ¥4.65 trillion, down from the current pace of around ¥6 trillion. As for the second year, the survey respondents expect the monthly purchases to fall further to average around ¥3.55 trillion. Putting everything together, that should translate to a reduction of around ¥45 trillion over a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

US bonds with the sad performance: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 1 Jul; US yields continue to rise w/longer end up the most The Wall Street Journal has a piece up on the higher bond yields. I’ll just add a trigger alert for the politically motivated. The piece needs careful reading. The Journal says yields

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) quarterly survey of business opinion 44% of firms surveyed expected general business conditions to deteriorate compared with 25% pessimism in the previous quarternet pessimism has been shown in the results of this survey since the third quarter of 2021 High interest rates in NZ continue to dampen demand.

The weekly ANZ / Roy Morgan survey of consumer confidnece tends not to move the Australian dollar upon release, so it pretty much drifts by more or less unmentioned. However, it also includes measure of inflation expectations. And, given the sticky, high nature of Australian inflation, check this out from the ANZ report: Inflation expectations

There is a report that the Democrats are waiting in early nomination for Pres. Biden. That nomination could be as early as July 21. The Trump camp must be “licking its chops” at that prospects of that idea. The Supreme Court ruling today was favorable for former Pres. Trump as it may keep him out

Comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams were published on Monday: said he continues to believe price pressures are moderating”I’m confident that we at the Fed are on a path to achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis,” Williams spoke in a video made on Sunday for a Bank

Powell is speaking at 1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time at the ECB forum in Sintra. You’ll note below that European Central Bank President Lagarde is on the same panel with him. There are a number of ECB speakers on the day’s agenda, but I’ll post on them separately. This article was written by

NASDAQ index off to a strong start. Closes at a record level.Former Fed Gov. Clarida: Sees one Fed rate cut in DecemberDemocrats weighing early nomination for Pres. BidenECB Pres. Lagarde: it will take time to be certain that inflation is on trackCrude oil futures and settle at $83.38ECBs Wunsch: The markets pricing on rate cuts

The NASDAQ index is starting the 2H of the year with a solid gain after rising by 18.13% in the first half of 2024. The index is closing near highs for the day up 0.84% and at a new record closing level. Both the Dow industrial average and the S&P also rose to start the

A snippet this morning from ING: The minutes of the June RBA meeting need scrutinizing for any talk of rate hikes. We know they were talked about, the question is, what is the trigger? We are leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting. *** I posted a bit of a preview earlier. Since

Former Fed Gov. and PIMCO global economic advisor Richard Clarida is on CNBC says: Feds stance is dovish despite perceived hawkishness Earliest practical time for rate cut is September.PIMCO’s base case is for one cut this year in December Characterizes the May inflation data as welcome news for the Fed Says that Fed officials need

Inflation data from South Korea. Like the sub heading says, the y/y result is the lowest since July of 2023. The core measure came in at +2.2% y/y. The May data is here for comparison: South Korea May Consumer Price Index This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS with a not very uplifting view on the outcome of the French election for investment certainty. In brief: large number of second-round votes could be three-way contestsmakes the final outcome harder to predictits not clear how many third-placed moderate candidates will withdraw to form a “front républicain” to increase the chances of defeating a

The NZDUSD is trading near session lows and in the process is testing its converged 100 and 200-day moving averages near 0.6068. When both the 100 and 200 day moving averages are converged, it represents a key risk/bias defining level for both buyers and sellers. Moving below with momentum and traders will target the 50%

Say the same thing over and over and over and one day you are bound to be right. A note from JP Morgan warns that US stocks are frothy. But that’s what they’ve been saving for a thousand points and more now. Anyway: There is no safety net anymoremarket is positioned longVix is at lows,

Crude oil futures are settling at $83.38. That is up $1.84 or 2.26% on the day. The gain is the largest one day gain since June 10 when the index rose 2.93% and driven by expectations of higher summer demand and concerns over potential supply shortages due to OPEC+ production cuts. Oil prices increased by

The European traders have come and gone, but it isn’t too late to review the day. To start the new week, month, quarter and the 2nd half of the year, the major European indices are closed higher. A snapshot of closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.30%France CAC +1.09%UK FTSE 100 +0.03%Spain’s Ibex, +1.04%Italy’s FTSE MIB

Bank of Japan Tankan for the April to June quarter of 2024. Headlines via Reuters: June big manufacturers index +13 (Reuters poll: 12), this is a 2 year highSeptember big manufacturers index seen at +14 (Reuters poll: 13)June big non-manufacturers index +33 (Reuters poll: 33)September big non-manufacturers index seen at +27 (Reuters poll: 31)June small

Today the main event will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI but we will get some minor economic releases before that. In fact, in the European session we have the Swiss Retail Sales, the Final S&P Global PMIs and the German inflation readings. These are low tier releases and shouldn’t be market moving. 14:00 GMT/10:00

Prior +0.4% A delay in the release by the source. House prices in the UK continue to hold up but Nationwide argues that activity in the market remains fairly subdued despite that. The firm notes that: “Housing market activity has been broadly flat over the last year, with the total number of transactions down by

Prior month +0.3% versus -0.1% previously reportedConstruction spending -0.1% versus 0.2% expected Total Construction: May 2024 construction spending was $2,139.8 billion, -0.1% below April’s revised $2,142.1 billion.6.4% higher than May 2023’s $2,011.8 billion.First five months of 2024: $836.3 billion, +8.8% above the same period in 2023 ($768.6 billion). Private Construction: Spending was $1,652.1 billion, -0.3%

Prelim was 51.7Prior was 51.3 The ISM survey is due at the top of the hour and the consensus is 49.1, up from 48.7 last month. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The S&P Global PMI survey shows US manufacturers struggling to achieve strong production growth in June, hamstrung by

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 falls to 1.7% from 2.2% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.7 percent on July 1, down from 2.2 percent on June 28. After this morning’s releases from the

Goldman Sachs observes another indicator that the US dollar remains robust against its challengers. The broad dollar index has surpassed the October 2023 highs, with recent strength attributed to a lack of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong US real rate advantages, making the dollar a formidable currency. Key Points: Broad-Based Strength: The broad dollar

It is a new trading week, month and quarter. The EURUSD and GBPUSD are higher (lower USD) as the market reacts to elections in France and prepares for the UK election on Thursday. The USDJPY continues its run to the upside with the pair reaching the highest level since 1986. In the Kickstart video for

The USDCHF is being helped by weaker Swiss retail sales/higher US yields. However the ISM data in the US did come out weaker than expectations with prices and employment components also lower. That combination helped to push price down toward an old floor level (broken earlier today), and the 200 bar moving average on the

One thing I didn’t highlight in my post on bonds is that some input prices are rising, particularly oil. Now cracks have faltered so gasoline hasn’t moved up much but with oil prices up here, they eventually will. Especially with WTI crude oil up $1.30 to $82.83, the highest since April 30. The reasons for

The USDCAD have been able to run higher yesterday helped by higher US rates. The run higher has taken the price above its 100 bar moving out on a 4-hour chart and 50% midpoint of the trading range since mid April near 1.3716, and up toward a swing area and 61.8% retracement of the same

As the NA session begins the GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The UK election is approaching on July 4 with Labour expected to win the majority. An exit poll will be released at 22:00 BST/5 PM EST, with expectations of a strong Labour majority. The outcome is largely priced in,

Introduction: A snapshot of today’s market dynamics Today’s stock market presents a vibrant tapestry of gains and losses across various sectors, as depicted in the latest heatmap analysis. While certain areas like consumer electronics and communication services showcase promising upticks, others such as semiconductors reflect minor dips, shaping a mixed economic narrative for investors and

The AUDUSD traded to the high from last week, and the high of swing area near 0.66896. Sellers lead against that level stalling the rally. The higher US rates today have helped to push the AUDUSD price lower (the USD higher). The move has now pushed the price toward the 200 and 100 bar moving

Roaring Kitty, Keith Gill, has been sued for securities fraud in the US District Court Eastern District of New York Source here: The Complaint alleges that during the Class Period, Defendant engaged in a pump-and-dump scheme, *** I remember when Greg watched the live stream … so we didn’t have to. I am surprised Gill

Prior 51.2 It’s a slight revision lower to the initial reading but still reaffirms a marginal growth in UK’s manufacturing sector. Both output and new orders continued to expand for a second successive month. However, price pressures remain stubborn with input cost inflation rising to a 17-month high. That’s a troubling sign for the BOE.

Prior 46.4 This is the 18th straight month that the Swiss manufacturing sector remains in contraction. Softer readings across the region continue to indicate that a rebound in conditions for Switzerland also remains unlikely. Here is the breakdown for the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Sinkus is on the wires saying: Two more cuts are possible in a 2024 if data is as expectedECB should not limit rate moves to projection meetingsAdds that a case before a July interest rate cut has gone ECBs Lagarde and other members implied after the last decision that July was likely not going

Prior month 48.7Prices paid 52.1 versus 57.0 priorEmployment 49.3 versus 51.1 last monthNew orders 49.3 versus 45.4 last monthProduction 48.5 versus 50.2 last month.Supplier deliveries 49.8 versus 48.9 last monthInventories 45.4 versus 47.9 last month.Backlog of orders 41.7 versus 42.4 last monthNew export orders 48.8 versus 50.6 last monthImports 48.5 versus 51.1 last month The

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y priorHesse CPI +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.8% vs +3.1% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.2% vs +2.5% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior At the balance, it shows that annual inflation in German states did

If you look at the daily averages, the first four trading days of July are among the best days on the calendar over the past 50 years. The average gain on July 1 is +0.27% and the average on July 3 is +0.31% (a top-ten day on the calendar). There are also moderate historical gains

It’s a strong start of the US dollar today and it has picked up further along with New York trade. The catalyst is the bond market with Treasury yields up 6-10 bps across the curve. Tens are up 9.6 bps to 4.44%, which is the highest since June 11. USD/JPY has tracked that, rising 51

US 10-year Treasury yields are now up 21 basis points from the PCE lows and you have to wonder: What would it look like if Friday’s inflation data had been bad instead of good? Yields are now at a one-month high and rising across the curve; which is helping to boost the US dollar. Why?

The EURUSD has rotated back to the downside as yields continue to run higher with the 10 year now up 14 basis points. That comes despite weaker ISM data. The US Supreme Court did rule in favor of Donald Trump regarding presidential immunity which makes prosecution for January 6th a hard hurdle. Whether that is

French antitrust regulators are preparing to charge Nvidia with anti-competitive practises, according to Reuters. This isn’t wholly a surprise as back in September, France raided the offices of Nvidia. Shares haven’t been hurt since the report and are down 1.3%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Worse economic contraction than was thought for Japan in Q1 2024. The government has revisited construction orders data and cut the GDP result even further. January – March real GDP annualised -2.9% vs previously revised -1.8%October -December 2023 real GDP revised to annualised +0.1% from previous +0.4%July September 2023 real GDP revised to annualised -4.0%

Bitcoin had a quiet weekend but its jumped higher in the past hours. There are no obvious fresh catalysts. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one on the board to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The size of the expiry is a big one so that could keep a floor under the pair in terms of price action for the session ahead. There won’t be much on

US stocks are off to a positive start to start the new week, new month, new quarter, second half of 2024. The gains are led by the Dow Industrial Average average. The NASDAQ is the laggard. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average up 198.2 points or 0.51% at 39317.08S&P index

Prior 45.4 The reading is more or less the same as the initial estimate, reaffirming a slight setback for Germany’s manufacturing sector at the end of Q2. Weak demand conditions is still the main culprit in all this but at least that is helping to pin down price pressures slightly. HCOB notes that: “Will this

The Swiss franc stuck to its June seasonal pattern here, with USD/CHF posting another decline again last month. The early gains helped to offset the change in narrative from the SNB late on in June, so that changes up the dynamic for the pair coming into July. In FX, it’s hard to make out any

The US dollar dipped on a softer ISM manufacturing index but it has stormed right back. The fuel is coming from the bond market where 10-year Treasury yields are now up 12 bps on the day and more than 20 bps since the post-PCE lows on Friday. USD/JPY is at a fresh 34-year high, up

Happy Canada Day. Canadian markets are closed today as we kick off the second half of the year. US markets are open and the theme so far is Treasury selling. US 10s are up 7.8 bps to 4.42% and USD/JPY is at a session high up 34 pips to 161.17. Flows are always a big

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs Weekend data – China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole The Caixin / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI out now is the second Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 . Comes in at 51.8, the highest since May of 2021 and the eighth consecutive reading

Prior 61.14k; revised to 60.82kNet consumer credit £1.5 billionPrior £0.7 billion; revised to £0.8 billion Individuals borrowed, on net, £1.2 billion of mortgage debt in May – down from £2.2 billion in April. That sees the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending rising to 0.3% in May, up from 0.2% in April – which

The yen continues to wobble, with USD/JPY bid back above 161.00 as I update. The Tankan wasn’t too bad., The GDP revision was super-ugly. EUR/USD is adding to its earlier gap higher, just a little off 1.0750. Speaking of USD/JPY, check out the FX dealing in this old clip, from around the 1:56 mark. If

Prior +2.4%CPI +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.1%HICP +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.8%HICP +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. This fits with estimates from the state readings earlier here. Core annual inflation is seen easing a touch to 2.9%, after having held at 3.0% in April

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 45 bps (90% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 44 bps (61% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 44 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 46 bps (58% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBNZ: 36 bps

Says ING: Japanese authorities are allowing USD/JPY to trade above the April FX intervention levelsPrevious comments from the top currency official hint the new line in the sand may be close to 165 Bank of America also nominate 165 as the new level for Japanese authorities to step in. BoA argue that if the Bank

Where we are at: Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party has taken the lead in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, Earlier post on this: First round of French election – “Macron’s centrist alliance suffered staggering losses” EUR/USD has popped: EUR/USD has popped a little higher A higher EUR seems

Over the weekend were the official PMIs from China for June: Weekend data – China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole Today we get the privately-surveyed Caixin manufacturing PMI. This remained in expansion in May despite the NBS Manufacturing PMI dropping into contraction. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

Prior 45.6 The downturn continues in Italy’s manufacturing sector, with it staying in contraction territory for a third straight month. Weaker demand conditions continue to be the bane for most of the euro area at the moment. This led to a decline in production volumes, with the pace of the drop being the quickest in

The final June reading is 47.2, the lowest in 3 months and the fifth month in a row in contraction the preliminary was 47.5May was 49.7 Some of the comments from the report: manufacturing sector’s key activity indicators have softened to the cyclical lows seen earlier in the yearManufacturers are marginally scaling back production through

Domestic sight deposits CHF 443.0 bn vs CHF 443.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits were little changed in the past week, following a bit of a noticeable drop in the weeks prior. That said, the latest foreign reserves data shows that the SNB switched from FX sales to FX purchases in Q1 having bought foreign

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: Euro holds higher as France’s far-right sweep first round of electionsUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intactBavaria June CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y priorEurozone June final manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs. 45.6 prelimUK June final manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs 51.4 prelimUK May mortgage approvals 59.99k vs 59.90k expectedUK June Nationwide house prices +0.2%

Manufacturing PMI (final) 45.4 vs. 45.3 prelim and 46.4 prior. Key findings: New orders decrease at quicker pace, weighing on production. Accelerated declines seen for purchasing activity and employment. Price pressures intensify, with output charge inflation at 15-month high. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Norman Liebke, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Not only

Chinese state media reporting comments from Communist Party Chair Xi Jinping: A healthy and stable development of China-Australia relations is in the fundamental and long-term interests of the two countries and peoplesA healthy, stable development of China-Australia relations is also conducive to regional and world peace, stability, development and prosperityWilling to work with Australia to

It’s tough to see this bounce as being any more than a slight relief for now. There were no major surprises to the outcome of the first round of votes in the French elections. And I reckon that’s what markets are responding to mostly, alongside the fact that the worst-case scenario of there being a

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +1.5%Germany DAX +1.3%France CAC 40 +2.6%UK FTSE +0.7%Spain IBEX +1.7%Italy FTSE MIB +2.0% The first round of voting is going more or less expected and perhaps the lack of surprise elements is helping to calm the nerves of investors. That said, there’s still plenty of uncertainty lingering before the second round of votes on

Fundamental Overview The USD started the week on the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data continues to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without

Fundamental Overview The USD started the week on the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth

On Friday we had further encouraging data on inflation from the US: US May core PCE +0.1% vs 0.1% expected HSBS, though, in their most recent ‘global outlook’ note are more circumspect: We still expect the pace of improvement in inflation from here to be only gradual and uneven given the ongoing stickiness in service

Various media outlets are reporting that U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekend. CNBC, Fox, ABC are amongst the outlets with the report. Stars and Stripes had this to say: U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekendAt

A paper published on Sunday by the Bank for International Settlements. This might make some interesting weekend reading. Or not. Some of the stuff on FX interventions is of interest right now, looking at you Bank of Japan! Monetary policy in the 21st century: lessons learned and challenges ahead Key takeaways Since the turn of

German DAX futures +0.9%French CAC 40 futures +2.3%UK FTSE futures +0.3% This comes after the far-right is seen sweeping the first round of the French elections over the weekend. That said, I wouldn’t get too carried away by the manner of victory just yet. A lot can change in the days ahead and there are

The estimate is for headline annual inflation to come in at 2.3% in Germany for the month of June. While that looks encouraging, the ECB still can’t relax just yet. In May, core annual inflation is still seen at 3.0% and that remains the key spot to watch in all this. The data today won’t

On Monday, the most significant event will be the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing prices for the U.S. On Tuesday, the eurozone will publish the core CPI flash estimate y/y and the CPI flash estimate y/y. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled

Manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs. 53.0 expected and 54.0 prior. Key findings: Production and new orders rise again, but at slower rates. Weaker growth in employment as confidence softens. Input cost inflation accelerates to highest since November 2022. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Uncertainty following European

Manufacturing PMI (final) 45.8 vs. 45.6 prelim and 47.3 prior. Key findings: HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 45.8 (May: 47.3). 2-month low. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 46.1 (May: 49.3). 6-month low. Sharper decline in new orders and costs increase, but outlook remains upbeat. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de

Private survey of inflation from the Melbourne Institute Inflation for June 2024 comes in at +0.3% m/m prior +0.3% For the y/y, +3.2% prior 3.1% (lowest in 21 months) — From last week’s CPI from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for May: 4.1% vs 3.8% prior the prospects of another Reserve Bank of Australia interest

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The far-right National Rally party looks set to claim victory in the first round, with the left-wing New Popular Front coalition expected to win about 29% of the votes and Macron’s faction sitting in third with about 20% of the votes. So, what’s next? The euro is sitting higher with EUR/CHF up 0.5% to 0.9675

The euro is the main mover so far today, sitting higher after the first round of the French elections. I detailed more on that here. Besides that, USD/JPY remains in focus too with the pair inching just above 161.00 on the day. As bond yields trace higher, it continues to keep the dollar in a

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0725USD/JPY 160.80GBP/USD 1.2638USD/CHF 0.8987USD/CAD 1.3679AUD/USD 0.6677NZD/USD 0.6099 Great to be back – huge thanks to Arno for covering for

1900 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time Introductory speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 “Monetary policy in an era of transformation” The bigger events at this conference happen on Tuesday. Powell, Schnabel, De Guindos This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan Corporate Price Expectations survey is part of the Tankan Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% a year from now vs +2.4% in the previous surveyExpect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.3% three years from now vs +2.2% in the previous surveyFirms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.2%

The euro has left a wee gap behind to open the new week: The results of the first round of the election in France are being cited. First round of French election – “Macron’s centrist alliance suffered staggering losses” The takes I’ve seen (apart from the politically biased ones that are best ignored) range across

Jibun S&P Global June 2024 Manufacturing PMI comes in at 50.0 prior 50.4preliminary was 50.1 From the commentary to the report: “Notably, the latest PMI data revealed the first rise in Japanese factory production for over a year, and a rebound in business confidence. Although employment continued to be impacted by retirements, there was another

China’s Xi says willing to work with AustraliaEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking MondayBitcoin back above US$63500China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 51.8 (expected 51.2, prior 51.7)Australian private survey of inflation, June 2024: +0.3% m/m (prior +0.3%)“Roaring Kitty” sued for Securities FraudPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1265 (vs. estimate at

I’m sure you’ll find this plastered all over the place, but ICYMI, the first round of the election in France has seen gains for the far-roght party led by Marine Le Pen. Politico have a good summary: According to early estimates by pollsters Ipsos, the far-right National Rally is on course to win 34 percent

Via Nikkei today (gtaed): Chinese national security authorities will have greater power to inspect smartphones and other electronic devices beginning MondayThe new powers are part of stronger anti-espionage laws that took effect,. The power of inspection extends to the phones of foreigners in the country. The new espionage law broadens the information covered to anything

China’s manufacturing PMI contracted for a second consecutive month in June. The non-manufacturing PMI expanded, but a slower pace than in May. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activities, dropped from 51 in May to 50.5 in June Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics. These are not going to

The launch is towards the East Sea (AKA Sea of Japan). North Korea has been very busy developing missile tech and nukes. The country got a big boost during the previous US administration and has made the most of it. Back in the day a show of aggression like this from NK would tend to

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Swiss Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell.Wednesday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, US Jobless Claims, US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday:

Week Ahead 1st-5th July: Sun: French Parliamentary ElectionMon: Canada Day; Japanese Tankan (Q2), Japanese, Chinese Caixin, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI (June), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)Tue: RBA Minutes (June), Australian & Canadian Manufacturing PMI Final (June), EZ Flash CPI (June), Unemployment Rate (May), US JOLTS Job Openings (May)Wed:

MUFG discusses the potential impact of the French elections and the June NFP print on EUR/USD. The focus is on the risk premium already priced into EUR/USD and how the election results could influence further movements. Key Points: Current Situation: Stabilization: EUR/USD has stabilized around the 1.0700 level after initially dropping by two big figures

Biden tweets: Folks, I might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to. I might not debate as well as I used to. But what I do know is how to tell the truth. He said something along the same lines at a campaign stop in North Carolina. I don’t put

Closing changes: S&P 500 down 0.4%Nasdaq down 0.7%Russell 2000 +0.1%DJIA -0.1%Toronto TSX Comp -0.5% The S&P 500 closed the half-year up a tidy 14% but today’s reversal from an all-time high is somewhat ominous. However against that backdrop note that the first three trading days of July are traditionally three of the strongest ones of

When I look at the July seasonals, there isn’t much in the FX market. The patterns are minor and the moves small as the summer complacency sets in. One thing stands out though: US equities. The S&P 500 has climbed for eight straight years in July with an average gain of more than 3%. Stretching

US May core PCE +0.1% vs 0.1% expectedUMich June final consumer sentiment 68.2 vs 65.6 prelimCanada April GDP M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expectedJoe Biden says he isn’t going anywhereDallas Fed May PCE price index +1.4% m/m annualized vs +2.7% priorFed’s Daly: The PCE data is ‘good news’ but the Fed is not done yetFed’s Bowman:

The future isn’t a mystery. Generative AI is coming for almost everything. Why? Machines will soon be able to see and hear in real time and interact with the world. That will unlock robotics. That’s why Elon Musk is pivoting Tesla to a robotics company. He sees the writing on the wall and realizes that

There were some larger individual movers, including a 2.2% drop in Nvidia shares and a 7% decline in Micron but that was balanced by a 2% rise in Amazon and a 3.5% rise in Adobe. Financials were modestly lower after the bank stress tests. On net, the moves were small but keep a three-day winning

Headlines: Major currencies move back to little changed on the dayJapan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX movesLatest poll sees Le Pen’s faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French electionWhat are the main events for today?ECB’s Villeroy: Disinflation process is on trackFed’s Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy furtherFed’s

According to NBS the US is preparing to evacuate Americans from Lebanon should the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel intensify. The increased military activity and the rhetoric suggest a risk of escalation, potentially opening up another front. The Pentagon is repositioning U.S. military assets closer to Israel and Lebanon.USS Wasp and Marines from the 24th

Prelim was 65.6Prior was 67.4Current conditions 65.9 vs 62.5 prelim (68.8 prior)Expectations 69.6 vs 67.6 prelim (66.5 prior)1-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.3% prelim5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim The stock market is at the highs of the day on this in part due to the drop in these inflation expectations number, which are closing in

Well, the Biden-Trump debate has come and gone and it was rather uninspiring to say the least. Amid Biden’s incoherent responses and Trump’s falsehoods, it is another reminder of the sad reality that these are two best presidential candidates set to lead the US. It’s definitely a question to the world, how did we end

Oil -6 to 478Gas -1 to 97Total 581 US production is much higher than 2021/22 because of much longer laterals an efficiency but there is a limit and this argues that production could slump by year end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US National Hurricane Center now sees a 100% chance of a tropical depression forming in the next 48 horus in the central Atlantic. Three storms are in the mix with one expect to cross the Yucatan peninsula on the weekend. The others should head in a westerly direction, aimed just south of Haiti, which

The S&P 500 touched a fresh all-time high today at 5523 (and counting). That marks the 32nd day with the index hitting a record high in the first half of the year. Today, Deutsche Bank compares the number of ATHs this year compared to historical norms. In short, it’s been one of the best years

It’s taking longer for policy to work, but it’s workingI’m looking at scenarios, we will react. It’s too early to tell what we will doInflation data shows it’s cooling, policy is working as expectedAnticipate generative AI will boost productivity, but it’s too early to speculate on”I think we’ll continue to see inflation printing above 2%,

The Dallas and Cleveland PCE remix data illustrates why Fed officials and markets are feeling better about the pricing picture. One month annualized trimmed mean 1.4% vs 2.7% prior (lowest this year)Six month annualized 3.0% vs 3.1% prior12-month 2.8% vs 2.9% prior Digging through the numbers, some drivers of inflation: Prescription drugsTobaccoSpectator sportsHospitalsUsed trucks Some

You know the drill by now. USDJPY hits a new 4-decade high, so pay attention to the price action in case the move sees push back from Japanese officials. Remember, they don’t target specific levels, they usually target volatility of the moves. At this stage the verbal jawboning is ignored, so if they really are

Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Atsushi Mimura as top currency diplomat, replacing Masato Kanda – Nikkei.Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Hirotsugu Shinkawa as Vice-Minister of Finance, replacing Eiji Chatani – Nikkei. The USDJPY saw some marginal downside after the news. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The EIA is out with its month report today, which is much more accurate than the weekly data. This is for April and it showed a 72,000 barrel per day increase to 13.248 million barrels per day, which is the highest since December. There has clearly been a stall in momentum since this time last

Bowman is a hawk so ‘haven’t quite’ isn’t a exactly banging the table for more hikes. We will continue to work toward Fed’s inflation goal ‘on our pace’There doesn’t seem to be a lot of appetite for a central bank digital currency in Congress This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We are gaining more confidence in the forecastAnd there is more scope to disregard the smaller bumps in the disinflation processBeing “data-driven” currently does not mean being “flash-driven”Data is inherently noisy and there is a risk of overreacting to volatile newsShould refrain from changing 2% inflation target He’s taking heart in the better headline reading

Happy Friday, unless you’re a Democratic Presidential candidate and the knives are coming from all directions. It will be interesting to see where this is going because the status quo doesn’t look tenable. The market is going to have to deal with that but here’s a spoiler: Politics (and especially the President) is the most-overrated

The S&P 500 has given back an early 40-point gain to a record 5523 and is now trading flat on the day at 5484. Once again, I think bitcoin was the tell here as it sagged before stocks. It’s since stabiliize though, down around 1%. I have a real hard time parsing here what’s inflation,

Median inflation +3.3% y/y vs +3.3% prior If you don’t know what it is, median PCE inflation is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes. According to the Cleveland Fed: By omitting outliers (small and large price changes) and focusing on the interior of

Prior +0.8%HICP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.8% Slight delay in the release by the source. The headline reading is softer than estimated but keeps unchanged from May. On the one hand, inflation in Italy looks to be holding at a comfortable level for the ECB. However, core prices were still seen closer to 2%

EBC Financial Group (EBC) is proud to announce that it has been honoured with two prestigious awards at the World Finance Awards 2024: Most Trusted FX Broker and Best CFD Broker. These accolades reflect EBC’s unwavering commitment to transparency, regulatory compliance, and exceptional customer service. This double recognition highlights global investors’ trust in EBC’s top-tier

The US political landscape could look far different when markets re-open on Monday. There are all kinds of rumors and reporting after Biden’s disastrous debate performance. The main ones indicate that Biden and his team plan to continue but I don’t really see those as insightful — people always want to continue. The question is

Overview of Today’s Market Dynamics The US stock market displayed varied performances across different sectors, with notable gains in healthcare driven by UnitedHealth (UNH) and a mixed sentiment in the technology sector. Here is a deep dive into the sectors, highlighting significant movers and the overall market sentiments that could help shape your investment decisions.

I’m not sure how many times we’ve heard these comments before, but here we go: Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Rapid FX moves undesirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Deeply concerned about excessive, one-sided moves on forex.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Closely watching

Australia private sector credit 0.4% vs 0.5% priorHousing credit 0.4% vs 0.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The odds of a Trump Presidency skyrocketed yesterday after a poor performance in the debate from Joe Biden. CNBC’s Jim Cramer showed up with the right attitude today, looking for concrete winners and losers if Trump takes power in November, particularly if there is a Republican sweep of the House and Senate. Cramer said he

The latest IFOP polling data: Far right 36.5%Left popular front 29.0%Macron’s centrist camp 20.5% The poll sees Le Pen’s National Rally getting 225-265 seats with the left wing getting 170-200 and Macron’s camp getting 70-100 seats. It takes 289 seats to get a majority so the politics — assuming these ranges are right — the

In this post, I wanted to give a recent example on how to select the best forex pairs to trade. This is an important topic which is not talked about often enough in the retail trading industry. As I explained already in a previous post, when you trade forex, you want to buy the currency

Real time consumer demand indicators still seem solid, not frothyI’m still hearing good solid demand growth in conversations with contactsCompanies have cut back on their hiring but they have also cut back on firing On the headline remark, he’s responding to the outlook for rate cuts. Once again, it just reaffirms that they’re not looking

The euro isn’t concerned today about the French election but equities are. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX +0.1%UK FTSE 100 flatFrench CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2% French stocks tried to rebound last week but it all evaporated late this week and we’re trading at the lowest since January. This article was written by

Prior 25kUnemployment rate 6.0% vs 5.9% expectedPrior 5.9% German unemployment rose more than expected in June, with the jobless rate also ticking a little higher back to 6.0%. On the latter, that is the highest reading since May 2021. This is an added sign that the slump in the manufacturing sector is starting to bite

CNBC reported early today: Not only does Biden not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, citing an advisor. Other reports say that there is no pressure coming from his cabinet to resign. To be clear, the decision is his alone and to get a viable candidate, VP Kamala

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

There are still lags to policy transmission that are playing outOpen to the idea that rate hikes are not constraining the economy as much as the Fed thinksThat is given the ‘remarkable’ strength in the economy that they are seeingServices, shelter price-setters still have room to push prices higherWill proceed ‘deliberately’ on policy He definitely

The big 7 finished mostly higher across the board (apart from Nvidia which was down 1.9%) with Amazon finishing up over 2% on the day with Meta in second place at 1.2%. However, the chart of intraday performance tells us everything we need to know. Messy and rangebound price action across the board. Not too

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Today we get lots of economic data although the focus will be mainly on the US PCE report. In the European session we get the preliminary inflation data for France, Spain and Italy and while it could have a slight impact on the EUR, it shouldn’t change the market’s pricing. Moving on to the American

Prior was +0.2%Prior core m/m +0.2% (revised to +0.3%)Core y/y +2.6% vs +2.6% expected Headline PCE 0.0% m/m vs 0.0% expectedHeadline PCE +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expectedPersonal income +0.5% vs +0.4% expectedPersonal spending +0.2% vs +0.3% expectedPrior personal spending +0.2% (revised to +0.1%)PCE services excluding energy +0.1% vs +0.3% prior There are no big surprises

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell raised serious concerns regarding China’s destabilizing actions in the South Sea in a call with China Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu – State Department. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +3.6%HICP +3.5% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.8% Spanish annual inflation continues to hover just above 3%, despite it being a slight fall compared to May. Core annual inflation remains at 3.0%, unchanged from the previous month. Sticky. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BDSwiss continues to take 2024 by storm, with the brokerage once again standing out from the competition thanks to another successful performance, this time at UF AWARDS Global 2024. The company picked up two prestigious trophies, receiving the “Best Research and Education Provider – Global” and “Best Trade Execution – Global” awards in a glittering

French stocks are trading at the lowest since January and are down year-to-date. They’re off 0.85% and at the lows of the day. The first round of the French vote is on Sunday and the second round is July 7. The polls show Marine Le Pen’s party getting about 36% of the vote in the

April GDP 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.0% prior.May Advance GDP 0.1% vs. 0.3% prior.Services producing industries +0.3%.Goods producing industries +0.3%.15 of 20 sectors increasing in the month. Wholesale trade, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and manufacturing were the largest contributors to growth in April after recording declines in the previous month. Following

Well done we made it through the presidential debate. There were plenty of takeaways you can derive on the political side, but this didn’t mean much for markets. We saw some initial upside in the USD (downside in Antipodean currencies) but the moves pulled back the deeper we went into the debate. The most noticeable

The US PCE inflation numbers were mostly in line with estimates but there were some signs of cooling inflation and that led to some dollar selling. There was also some angst about a hot number in the report in light of higher Canadian and Australian data this week. The main headline was 0.0% m/m but

It’s been another mixed session for commodities. Energy: oil saw decent upside trading higher by over 1% while natgas was down by about the same percentage. Precious metals: saw gold and silver put in a decent bounce while platinum trades lower by over 2%. It’s been a challenge getting a solid read on commodities in

Fundamental Overview This was a messy week for many markets, including gold. After some up and downs, we are ending the week basically flat. There was no real change in the fundamentals this week as the data just showed some more rebalancing in the US labour market but didn’t signal any material weakness. As of

Prior 100.3; revised to 102.2 The beat here isn’t as strong at first glance, amid a revision to the May reading. Still, it points to a better outlook on the Swiss economy in six months’ time. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

Japan Tokyo Core CPI YY: 2.1 vs 2.0% expectedJobs/Applications ratio: 1.24 vs 1.26 expectedUnemployment Rate: 2.6% vs 2.6% expected Worth keeping in mind that the Tokyo Core CPI is seen as a leading indicator for the regular national core CPI YY number (see below), and we get the Tokyo numbers well in advance of the

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

The AUD got a decent boost this week after hotter-than-expected CPI data for May which showed the weighted YY measure print at 4.0% and the CPI YY SA gauge jump to 4.1%. As a result of the beat markets repriced quite aggressively on the rate expectations side, with probabilities for a hike in one of

Equity futures trades mostly green across the board. The outperformers are the Hang Seng and the A50, at the same time we are starting to see some of the earlier USD strength soften a bit and some of the earlier weakness in the Antipodean currencies recover as the presidential debate carries on. For those who

It was a relatively quiet Asia-Pac session for markets. The presidential debate saw mostly muted market reactions as we didn’t really learn much from it. The USD saw some initial upside at the start of the debate, but some of the move moderated as the debate drew to a close. Equity markets are well supported

Dollar pairs are sitting near flattish levels on the day now, and that includes USD/JPY too. The pair was up earlier at around 161.00 but is now trading back to flat levels around 160.75 on the day. Other dollar pairs are also not doing a whole lot, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD sitting roughly flat as

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% On the week itself, the CAC 40 is down roughly 1.5% currently to its lowest since last Monday. The jitters are still up in the air as we await the first round of the French election this weekend. From earlier this

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior +2.6% The good news is that headline annual inflation continues to moderate and inch closer towards the desired 2% mark. But as is the case with the rest of the region, services inflation remains a key sticking point. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.3% As we have seen during the week, any early optimism can easily be faded when it comes to European equities. French stocks will remain in focus after the CAC 40 fell by 1% yesterday ahead of the first round of elections this weekend. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are

Rapid FX moves are undesirableImportant for currency to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentalsWill take appropriate actions on excessive FX moves They don’t seem tired of working the same copy pasta over and over again. USD/JPY continues to keep at it on the day, weaving in and around the 161 level over the past

Compared to the last publication of the poll, National Rally is now seen winning as much as 37% of the popular vote. That is up 2% from previously. Meanwhile, Macron’s Together ensemble is seen garnering just 20% of the vote – down 2% from previously. As an aside, just be wary that this does not

Another busy day on the economic calendar, but just like yesterday I’m not sure whether what we have today will move the needle in any significant way. Japanese inflation data during Asia-Pac was a nothing burger (as it usually is) and won’t be enough to sway the BoJ’s decision making.Later in the EU session we

No major surprises in terms of the upcoming meeting expectations for the major central banks. Markets are leaning towards a 66% chance of a hike for the BoJ, but with them also planning to announce bond tapering at the meeting, maybe they leave off the hikes for now. I don’t think the bank has in

There are a couple of large ones to take note of, as highlighted in bold. And they are all for EUR/USD, layered between 1.0650 through to 1.0725. That is likely to help lock price action in European trading, before the expiries roll off later in the day. If anything, it suggests the same kind of

Prior +0.7% On an annual basis, import prices were seen down 0.4% compared to May last year. If you strip out energy prices, import prices were up 0.1% on the month compared to April. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Although gold prices set a new high earlier in the year, the momentum of the rally has diminished.Traditional relationships between gold prices and other factors such as US real yields and the US dollar have broken down. Historically, higher US real yields and a stronger US dollar would suppress gold prices, but this year, both

We are bound to hear a ton of updates as the debate plays out, so I’ll update highlights and comments below as it plays out, I’ll be sticking to things that are more specific to markets as much as possible (sigh): Trump says planned tariffs will decrease deficits and won’t increase problematic inflationTrump says China

The USD leads the other majors this morning by quite a decent margin, while the two antipodeans (AUD and NZD) are pushing lower. The reaction in FX suggests markets think Trump is leading the debate (with broad consensus viewing a Trump victory as a positive for the USD and negative for the CNY and AUD).

PBoC injects 50 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is holding slightly higher across the board so far today, as we head into the final stretch of June and Q2 trading. The main pair to watch is still USD/JPY, with price now testing waters above the 161 mark. Where art thou Tokyo? As a reminder, the pace of the weakness in the

EU leaders agree on top EU jobs, giving Ursula von der Leyen a second term as head of the European Commission – diplomats.EU leaders agree on Portugal’s Antonio Costa as the new chairman of EU summits – diplomats.EU leaders agree on Estonia’s Kaja Kallas for the job of EU top diplomat – diplomats. This article

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Industrial Production: 2.8% vs 2.0 expectedProduction forecast 1 month ahead: -4.8% vs prior 6.9%Production forecast 2 month ahead: 3.6% vs -5.6% This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US May durable goods orders +0.1% vs -0.1% expectedUS Q1 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 233K vs. 236K expectedUS May goods trade balance (advance) -100.62B vs. -97.95B priorUS May wholesale inventories +0.6% vs +0.1% priorUS sells 7-year notes at 4.276% vs 4.279% WIFed’s Bostic: Sees a cut this year and 4

Deutsche Bank is out with a new set of FX forecasts and has this to say: “We have been bullish on the USD throughout the year on the premise that the Fed will cut slower than other central banks and that the dollar was under-pricing the US election. The dollar’s rally in recent days is

Hope you have your popcorn ready for the upcoming presidential debate between Biden and Trump (due at 9PM NY time). Bloomberg was out with some helpful thoughts on what type of topics could be important for markets: Topics like taxes, tariffs, electric cars, semiconductors, and cryptocurrencies could be focal points in the debate.Stocks with high

Friday’s May US PCE market has been circled on everyone’s economic calendar all week long but I tend to thing it’s overhyped. We got a blockbuster CPI report for May already and it certainly delivered with prices well-below the consensus. The thing is, the market didn’t really run with it. US 2-year yields are down

If inflation moves towards 2%, eventually a rate cut is on the tableMonetary policy is currently restrictiveInflation should ease with current policy settingUpside risks to inflation persistEconomy strong but activity has moderatedStill willing to raise rates again if inflation doesn’t rise Bowman is a hawk so her comments aren’t a surprise. This article was written

Oil has bounced back nicely from the post-OPEC dip. I think there was some short covering after shorts hit a record into the meeting. In the bigger picture, US demand hasn’t been good to start the driving season and there is some global cyclical angst creeping into many markets. OPEC looks to be holding the

Overview of Today’s US Stock Market Today’s stock market presented a mixed picture highlighted by strong performances in technology and communication services, contrasted with difficulties in the semiconductor and financial sectors. The market’s divergent path showcases the unfolding dynamics in investor sentiments and their strategic impact on portfolio management. 📈 Technology & Communication: A Beacon

Prior was 4.650%Bid to cover 2.58 vs 2.43 prior Yields steadily fell today ahead of the auction after a grind higher yesterday. We haven’t seen a coupon auction tail since the 3-year offering on June 10th. Since then, 2s, 3s (just now) 5s, 10s, 20s, 30s, and 5-year TIPS all stopped-through. I wouldn’t expect much

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB flat The CAC 40 index is pretty much flat on the week when accounting for the opening moves here. The DAX is seen up just 0.1% on the week when taking in the slight gains above. So, that speaks to the lack

Bank of America anticipates that an imbalance in the demand and supply of the Japanese yen (JPY) this summer will contribute to USD/JPY reaching 163 by September 2024. Various factors, including increased investments in foreign equities, trade balance struggles, and political risks, are expected to exert downward pressure on the yen. Key Points: Imbalance in

Look out for the results just after the top of the hour. Here are some pros and cons from BMO: Pros We haven’t seen a coupon auction tail since the 3-year offering on June 10th. Since then, 2s, 5s, 10s, 20s, 30s, and 5-year TIPS all stopped-through with above-average non-dealer allocations driven by elevated indirect

Prior was -1Composite index -8 vs -2 prior Selected Manufacturing Comments “It is clear inflation has forced the customer to make ‘either/or’ decisions on how they spend their money. We see value added items in the food sector being affected strongly. Our business is not bad per se, but not as robust as we would

North Korea says it has successfully conducted an important test in advancing missile technology – KCNA.North Korea says test aimed at developing multiple warhead missile – KCNA. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Won’t comment on forex levels, potential FX intervention.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Will take appropriate steps on excessive FX moves.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Rapid FX moves undesirable. This article was written by Arno V Venter

We don’t do that (setting policy based on one data point)Inflation has picked up a little bitBut it could just be that monetary policy is taking longer to feed through to the services sectorThe right policy response to that, clearly, would be to hold your nerveWe’re coming down in a slightly bumpy way, but we

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are sandwiching the current spot price at 1.0650 and 1.0700. That is likely to help lock price action at the current levels before we get to US trading later. There will be

Prior was -7.7%Index at vs 72.3 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.