Footage from Trump’s Fox interveiw to air Wednesday morning US time, his remarks are that he had intervene, and if he hadn’t done so, Iran would now possess a nuclear weapon. And: “I view it as very close to over. If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild […]

Summary: Reopening Hormuz is necessary but not sufficient to fix oil supply Market split: shipping flows vs actual production shut-ins Over 500mn barrels potentially lost due to halted output Restarting production likely delayed weeks to months Near-term optimism tempered by persistent structural supply tightness The oil market may be underestimating the depth of the current

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar extended the losses yesterday as the unwinding of the war-led positions on positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations are expected to start tomorrow. Trump delivered some upbeat remarks tonight mentioning that we’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead.

There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 and 1.1800 levels. The fact of the matter is that markets are looking to turn the page on the US-Iran conflict. And that means running with the optimism so far

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Iran is rebuilding access to underground missile bases during the ceasefire, highlighting the temporary nature of the pause and the risk of renewed conflict. Summary: Iran clearing debris from underground missile bases during ceasefire US–Israel strikes targeted tunnel entrances to disable launchers Around half of Iran’s missile launchers assessed still intact “Missile cities” designed to

Yellen sees one Fed rate cut still possible this year, despite inflation risks from the Iran war shifting market expectations away from easing. Summary: Janet Yellen sees one Fed cut still possible this year Iran war driving broad supply shock, lifting inflation pressures Markets have priced out cuts despite earlier expectations Fed remains data-dependent with

tradeCompass Summary Map for today’s ETH futures day traders Bullish threshold: $2425Bearish threshold: $2230 ETH has clearly improved from the February low and the chart now shows a decent repair phase with higher lows and a healthier short-term trend. But price is also nearing an important upper band and prior reaction area. So the market

In her teaser video Maria Bartiromo says Trump told her the war is over. Which is what he’s been saying for weeks. “He said, its over.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Bessent signals tariffs could return to prior levels by July Treasury still sees strong US growth, potentially above 3–3.5% Policy stance framed as “de-risking,” not full China decoupling Tariff threat adds to global risks alongside ongoing Iran war Markets face rising stagflation and trade fragmentation concerns US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that tariffs

Positive sentiment continues here in Asia with goose comments from Vance and Trump: Vance signals US–Iran progress, pushes ‘grand bargain’ as ceasefire holds Heads up for Trump interview. “He said, its over.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Blockade compliance and improved Hormuz flows support cautious optimism, as talks resume and ceasefire extension is discussed. Summary: US blockade of Iranian ports sees compliance, no interdictions in first 24h Tanker flows through Hormuz improving, with 20+ vessels transiting US–Iran talks likely to resume, per UN’s António Guterres Regional diplomacy ramps up with multiple foreign

Hope springs eternal. And so far this week, markets are running with the optimism that there will be something done when we get to the second round of US-Iran talks. The next round of negotiations are set to take on Thursday, with plenty of upbeat commentary ahead of it. US president Trump is the main

RBNZ Governor Breman and SNB Chair Schlegel will discuss how open economies navigate a shifting global landscape, focusing on trade fragmentation, capital flows, and inflation challenges amid rising geopolitical tensions and a more uncertain international financial environment. 15 April 2026, 1:00pm to 2:00pm US Eastern time (1700 – 1800 GMT) This article was written by

Vance signals progress in US–Iran talks and a potential “grand bargain,” but key gaps remain despite a holding ceasefire. Summary: Vance signals continued US–Iran negotiations, ceasefire holding ~7 days “Grand bargain” aims to integrate Iran into global economy Clear red line: Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons Talks progressing in Pakistan, but gaps remain Markets cautiously

Deutsche Bank turns bearish on the dollar, expecting EUR/USD to break 1.20 as Fed policy lags more hawkish ECB and BoE amid easing Iran risk and shifting energy dynamics. Summary: Deutsche Bank sees broad USD weakness, EUR/USD targeting a break above 1.20 Fed expected to stay on hold while ECB/BoE lean more hawkish Iran war

Trump: Iran talks ‘could be happening over next two days’ in Pakistan IMF lowers 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% prior US March PPI final demand 4.0% y/y vs +4.7% expected Lebanon ambassador: The preliminary meeting with Israel was good Bessent: Trump hasn’t opted to raise 10% tariff to 15% “at this

Japan’s manufacturers see the sharpest confidence drop in three years as oil shocks and supply disruptions bite, while domestic sectors remain more resilient. Summary: apan manufacturers’ sentiment posts biggest drop in over three years Oil shock and supply disruptions from Iran war hit confidence Chemicals sector flips negative as input costs surge Non-manufacturers remain resilient

US stocks continue to make fresh daily highs and have erased the Iran war decline. It’s an impressive turnaround given that just three days ago, JD Vance was walking away from negotiations in Pakistan. The market quickly realized that was more of a stunt than a sign of the way that things are going. The

US Treasury’s Bessent backs “wait and see” on rates China exports miss, imports surge as trade surplus shrinks sharply Some China trade data dribbling out. Q1 trade data shows imports surge, exports stay firm HSBC warns peace deal needed to restore energy flows and curb inflation Australia business confidence plunges to -29 as Iran war

When US tariffs were struck down by a 6-3 decision in the Supreme Court, the President announced a 10% global tariff under a different authority immediately. This was done under Section 122, which has a 150-day limit and a cap of 15%. Initially the rate of 10% rather than 15% was framed as an administrative

Bloomberg reports: Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks They cited a person familiar with Iran’s deliberations. At this point, I don’t think we need a headline to tell us the state of play. The

It’s not impossible to see the Fed and ECB take different paths in the short term We are absolutely focused on delivering on inflation target If shocks take inflation off target but not persistently, we should be measured in our response How measured of a response is the question? Does that mean not moving rates

China exports miss sharply as imports surge, narrowing trade surplus. Summary: Exports +2.5% y/y (vs +8.6% expected) Imports +27.8% y/y (vs +11.2% expected) Trade surplus $51.1bn (vs $108.2bn expected) Yuan exports stronger due to FX effects Strong domestic demand, weaker external demand China’s March trade data showed a sharp divergence between imports and exports, with

The ECB needs to take a medium-term view Need to keep eyes on the medium term while checking data daily We have to be completely agile We have to be data dependent The captain won’t leave the ship with clouds on the horizon This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview The stock market today painted a green picture for the Technology sector, with notable performances from major tech giants driving market sentiment up. Microsoft (MSFT) grew by an impressive 2.11%, indicating continued investor confidence. In the semiconductor space, Nvidia (NVDA) leaping 1.88% and Micron (MU) soaring 3.06% highlights a bullish stance among investors,

The S&P 500 has completely retraced the Iran war move; the euro is back to pre-war levels; but gold isn’t. There may be an opportunity there. Gold has come to life during US trading today and is up 2% to $4831. That’s still $440 below pre-war levels, or about 9%. Silver is even stronger today,

WTI crude is down a little over 2% today to just below $97 now, effectively closing the Monday gap higher. This comes after some positive headlines yesterday, with reports of a second round of talks later this week. For the most part, markets seem to be taking their cue from what US president Trump has

The euro is back to where it was when the Iran war began. That’s a good sign for peace but also for resilience. The energy shock is a big hit for Europe but the market is pricing in a transitory effect. Notably, the IMF is out with its latest growth forecasts and sees GDP this

Nothing is authentic on the internet and you’re likely a target of stock-market boosting campaigns. Wired is out with an interesting article about a Brooklyn rock band called Geese that had a monster 2025. Their album Getting Killed landed on every year-end list that mattered. They booked Saturday Night Live. They sold out a fall

Yesterday, there was an Atlantic report that said talks were coming on Thursday, citing sources from Tehran. Now Trump says they’re more ‘inclined’ to go to Pakistan for Iran talks. There was a quick uptick in stocks on this and the S&P 500 is now at the highs of the day, up 0.8%. This article

The euro is one of the most-straightforward Iran war trades, albeit not one with the highest torque. The reasoning is simple: Much of the oil and the refined products shipped through the Strait of Hormuz ends up in Europe, fuelling autos and airplanes. The cut off of those supplies endangers the European economy more than

US March NFIB small business optimism index 95.8 vs 97.9 expected A tricky time for the oil market as the “smart money” has moved on Investors surveyed in early April were most bearish in 10 months – BofA ECB’s Rehn: Interest rate decisions are not locked in beforehand Three tankers were said to pass through

The report is from earlier today with it noting that there were three tankers that entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on the first day of the US naval blockade. It is believed that the three vessels were not heading to Iranian ports, so they were not stopped by the blockade that was

Prior was 3.4% y/y PPI M/M +0.5% vs +1.1% expected Prior +0.7% Core PPI Core PPI Y/Y +3.8% vs +4.2% expected Prior +3.9% Core PPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.5% expected Prior Core PPI MoM +0.5%(revised to +0.3%) PPI Ex Foor/Energy/Trade YoY 3.6% vs 3.5% last month PPI Ex Food/Energy/Trader MoM +0.2% vs +0.5% last month

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The market mood has swung around since this same time yesterday, with optimism bouncing back after US president Trump talked up hopes for a deal with Iran. Adding to that is reports that we are likely to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened the week higher yesterday following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. The gains didn’t extend further though as the ceasefire remained intact and we got reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels. There were still risks of another escalation after Trump

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% in January on Middle East conflict United States 2026 growth trimmed to 2.3% vs 2.4% prior; 2027 ticks up to 2.1% vs 2.0% Euro area forecast slashed to 1.1% vs 1.3% in January as energy headwinds deepen India growth upgraded to 6.5% vs 6.4% prior

IEA flags readiness for further oil releases as war deepens supply shock. Summary: IEA signals readiness for further oil reserve releases Record 400m barrel release already deployed Additional supply could be mobilised if shock worsens War driving worst-ever global energy disruption Reserve releases seen as stabilisation, not solution The International Energy Agency has made clear

Its difficult not to read nefarious motives into comments from senior US officials given the stink of insider trading within the administration. Vance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader deal But, leaving that aside for now, Vance has been a tailwind for risk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

This via a Reuters piece. US-Iran talks end without deal but leave door open for further dialogue. Summary: US-Iran talks end without agreement Sides reportedly “close” before breakdown Key disputes: nuclear programme, Hormuz, sanctions Talks described as tense but ongoing Dialogue continues via intermediaries De-escalation incentives remain for both sides Earlier: Vance says progress made

UK retail boosted by Easter, but underlying spending weakens as fuel shock bites. Summary: UK retail sales jump on Easter timing effect BRC like-for-like +3.1% y/y vs +0.7% prior Total sales +3.6% y/y vs +1.1% prior Barclays spending softer at +0.9% vs +1.0% Travel spending drops 3.3% y/y Consumers delaying purchases, building savings UK consumer

Prior 98.8 Full report here The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average

Trump: We were called this morning by the right people from Iran Iran thought they were close to an agreement on Sunday morning – report Fed’s Goolsbee: Oil futures show this will be a short-run problem (why he’s wrong) US March existing home sales 3.98m vs 4.06m expected Iran officials are studying abandoning enrichment –

The US-Iran war has made things very complicated for the oil market, not least needing to balance out supply and demand dynamics. But from a financial perspective, it is also getting a bit dicey in trying to price out the difference between paper oil and physical oil. I talked a bit about the massive $30

Prior +2.3% HICP +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.5% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.9% and that is a step up from the 2.7% reading in February. As higher energy prices bump up headline inflation, it will eventually also spill over to core prices down the road. That even more so the longer

This via a Reuters piece. US-Iran talks end without deal but leave door open for further dialogue. Summary: US-Iran talks end without agreement Sides reportedly “close” before breakdown Key disputes: nuclear programme, Hormuz, sanctions Talks described as tense but ongoing Dialogue continues via intermediaries De-escalation incentives remain for both sides Earlier: Vance says progress made

MAS tightens policy as imported inflation rises, even as growth outlook softens. An expected move. Summary: MAS tightens via steeper S$NEER appreciation slope No change to band width or centre Inflation forecasts raised to 1.5–2.5% (from 1.0–2.0%) Imported energy costs driving price pressures GDP growth seen slowing in 2026 Q1 GDP 4.6% y/y, but -0.3%

Summary: Bessent urges Fed to “wait and see” on rate cuts Sees recent inflation spike as temporary Confident inflation expectations remain anchored Notes strong economic momentum into early 2026 Geopolitical risks complicating policy outlook U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled a cautious approach to monetary policy, arguing that the Federal Reserve should adopt a “wait-and-see”

This is mostly a repeat to what we’ve heard from earlier in the day, that both sides are eyeing talks on Thursday in Islamabad. But as the echo chamber gets louder, we’re seeing market players pick up on the optimism and running with it. It’s a funny thing that even though the latest development is

Summary: Recession risks seen rising if war persists Global trade growth downgraded to 2–5% Growth driven more by prices than volumes Supply chain risks flagged by majority of exporters Firms adapting via stockpiling and diversification Eurozone downside growth seen near 0.2% Recession risks are expected to become more pronounced later this year (US fall season)

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 1bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

HSBC warns energy shock will persist without Middle East peace deal. Summary: HSBC warns peace deal key to restoring energy flows Oil near $100 as Hormuz disruption persists ~10mb/d supply already impacted, more at risk Energy-driven inflation seen rising Growth outlook increasingly uncertain Central banks may stay on hold HSBC Chair Brendan Nelson warned that

Australian business confidence collapses as energy shock crushes outlook. Earlier: RBA’s Hauser warns of stagflation risk as energy shock hits economy. says not sure interest rates are at the right level to tame inflation, adds rates need to bring inflation to the 2-3% target and that Q2 headline inflation is around 5% due to fuel

Summary: Hauser flags stagflation risk as central bank “nightmare” Inflation still too high in Australia Supply capacity described as constrained Energy prices seen as major income shock Focus on preventing rise in inflation expectations RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that Australia is facing a difficult macroeconomic backdrop, with elevated inflation and constrained supply capacity

Earlier here: Top Trump official says gas prices will rise even higher in coming weeks More detail now. Summary: Oil prices seen peaking in coming weeks Peak tied to resumption of Hormuz shipping Prices likely to rise until flows normalise U.S. blockade adding to near-term disruption Venezuela supply ramp offers partial offset U.S. Energy Secretary

China’s yuan-denominated imports rose 19.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, while exports increased 11.9%, according to customs data. Total trade (imports + exports) exceeded CNY 11 trillion for the first time on record, with growth marking the strongest pace in five years. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Vance says talks made “a lot of progress” U.S. gained insight into Iran’s negotiating stance No deal yet, but framework for “grand deal” exists Iran seen as not fully authorised to agree Hormuz reopening and uranium key U.S. demands Ball now “in Iran’s court” U.S. Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone

Japan’s Katayama outlines global meeting agenda, offers no new policy signals. Summary: Katayama to attend G7, G20, IMF, World Bank meetings Talks to cover financial markets and energy situation Japan signals readiness to support Asian economies Monitoring JGB yields, maintaining market dialogue Monetary policy decisions left to BoJ Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama outlined her

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Miran is speaking soon. He is a political appointee and a motivated speaker for rate cuts. His views are irrelevant and he is ignored by sober members of the FOMC. Chinese trade data the focus otherwise today. China’s export momentum is expected to have eased in March as the boost from AI-driven demand runs into

Trump officials are weighing another possible face-to-face with Iranian leadership, according to CNN. That’s likely a soft float towards an earlier report that cited Iranian sources and said a meeting would take place on Thursday. In any case, the oil market is speaking much louder than the headlines. WTI is now trading at $97.19 from

The next round of talks is scheduled for Thursday in Islamabad, according to a source from Iran cited by the Atlantic. That’s another positive sign. It seems highly likely that the US thinks it can get a deal on nuclear material in exchange for whatever Iran is reasonably asking for (sanctions relief +). Next round

Anyone in the oil market would tear that argument apart: The backwardated curve (front at $100, December at $77) doesn’t mean “the market thinks prices will fall to $77.” It means holders of physical oil are demanding a large premium for near-term delivery relative to deferred delivery. That’s a statement about current scarcity and inventory

Prior was +4.8% Non-residential -24.0% Residential +1.7% This drop was mostly the result of quirks as institutional permits were halved in the month. Often times these are lumpy things like hospitals. When you look at commercial alone, it fell 8%, which also isn’t great. The surprise is that residential continues to hold up despite high

A new report from Axios’ Barak Ravid says Iran was caught off guard by JD Vance leaving talks in Pakistan. Iran thought they were close to an agreement on Sunday morning, he says. The main sticking points were differences over Iran’s nuclear program and whether Iran will agree not to enrich uranium at all and

Tech Giants Propel Amid Semiconductor Strains Sector Overview Today’s stock market demonstrates a divergent landscape, heavily influenced by movements within the technology sector. The software-infrastructure segment shines with notable gains, spearheaded by Microsoft (MSFT), up 1.76%, and Oracle (ORCL), leaping by an impressive 7.25%. In contrast, the semiconductor sector faces challenges, with Micron Technology (MU)

Summary: ANZ expects the RBNZ to begin hiking earlier and more aggressively, driven by rising inflation risks from energy and persistent price pressures, even as the domestic economy remains uneven. ANZ has revised its outlook for New Zealand monetary policy, now expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to begin a tightening cycle earlier

Vance has done a good job on Iran talks, they want to make a deal badly Says sticking point is on nuclear Iran didn’t agree not to have a nuclear weapon Thinks Iran will now agree on nuclear We’ll get nuclear material back If Iran doesn’t agree to no nuclear weapons, there will be no

US stock markets are showing incredible resilience, even as the US starts squeezing off the only traffic hauling oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade went into effect at 10 am ET. The market is sensing this is all theatre in the lead up to some kind of deal where Iran gives up nuclear

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold opened lower today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. I don’t think anybody sane expected them to reach an agreement on the first round given the strong divergence in proposals. There have been reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels, but for now we

The blockade will be enforced in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, east of the Strait of Hormuz It will apply to all vessel traffic regardless of flag However, it will not impede neutral transit through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations But neutral vessels may still be subject to the

Summary: Japan 10-year JGB yield hits 29-year high (2.49%) as oil shock builds US–Iran talks collapse and Hormuz blockade fears lift inflation expectations Energy-driven inflation risks push yields higher across the curve Highlights Japan’s sensitivity to imported energy shocks Reinforces BoJ policy dilemma amid rising global inflation pressures Japan’s government bond market came under renewed

Prior was 4.09m Sales -3.6% vs +2.7% prior Median price $408,800, up 1.4% y/y Inventory 4.1 months The National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales series measures the annualized transaction volume of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, based on closing data from multiple listing services. Because closings typically lag contract signings by

The market is sensing a deal where Iran gives up nuclear and gets basically everything else it’s asking for. The thinking is that Trump wants a way out and can’t have the Strait closed for much longer. The latest report is from the New York Post and said that Iranian officials are studying abandoning uranium

This is a micro signal of macro stress in oil markets. While global supply hasn’t collapsed, downstream rationing behaviour suggests tightening logistics and precautionary inventory control. For oil, it reinforces a bullish risk premium narrative. For India, it raises concerns about inflation and growth via transport costs. Broader EM sentiment could be pressured if similar

Recapping this ICYMI earlier. Hungary’s election removes a key EU disruptor, signalling a shift toward greater integration, policy alignment, and potential economic support flows from Brussels. Summary: Hungary delivers political shock with Orbán ousted after 16 years Centre-right Tisza party wins decisive majority amid record turnout Outcome signals shift back toward EU alignment and policy

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 and 1.1700 levels. The dollar has opened with a gap higher today after US-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend. So, that is still going to be the key driver

A sharp drop in floating storage reflects Middle East tankers restarting movement after ceasefire news, signalling easing disruption. Its already dated data given weekend developments and the renenewed underlying geopolitical risk. Massive w/w draw in floating storage (-47.2mmb) as Middle East flows restart (data via Vortexa) Ceasefire and US–Iran talks triggered movement of previously stranded

New Zealand’s services sector is contracting more deeply, with broad-based weakness and falling confidence driven by geopolitical uncertainty. The data point to slowing growth and rising downside risks to the economic outlook. New Zealand Services PMI for March 2026 46.0 prior 48 Composite 48.8 prior 50.5 Summary: New Zealand services sector contracts further in March

Headlines: A softer risk mood to start the new week but the feeling is that it could’ve been worse US president Trump reaffirms blockade on Iranian ports starting from later today Iran: No security for Persian Gulf ports if own is threatened Oil prices surge after US-Iran talks collapse over the weekend Oil prices jump

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Japanese economy, prices moving roughly in line with BOJ forecasts Financial markets are seeing unstable movements due to conflict in the Middle East Rising oil prices are weighing on Japan’s economy due to worsening terms of trade If the conflict is prolonged, it could weigh on corporate activity Should it also push up inflation expectations,

From his Truth Social post: “The United States to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports on April 13 at 10:00 A.M. ET. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT” That means the blockade will officially begin at 1400 GMT later today. As a reminder, the blockade that Trump is referring to

The negotiations between the US and Iran over the weekend failed to produce a deal. In the end, trying to come to a nuclear agreement proved to be a bridge too far. Even though it might just be a singular point, it is one massive gap that both sides are unable to compromise on. So,

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Scanning some of the futures opening prices (earlier FX gave indications of the trouble): S&P500 and Nasdaq futures down more than 1% Oil up, brent above $102.50 and US crude (CL) above %105.20 Weekend: US-Iran talks break down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices opened higher today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. This shouldn’t be a surprise though given the strong divergence in stances ahead of the talks. There have been reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels, but for now we don’t have any official

You can check out market charts free here: Live Charts In a nutshell, oil is not even approaching its gap, but FX and equities are faring a little (a very little) better. The news: the collapse of recent US–Iran talks US Navy would implement a blockade targeting vessels interacting with Iranian ports, focusing on Iranian-linked

The BOK is signalling readiness to respond to excessive won weakness as geopolitical risks drive FX volatility, while inflation concerns rise and growth remains uneven. Summary: BOK governor nominee flags readiness to act against excessive won weakness FX volatility driven by Middle East tensions and failed US–Iran talks Inflation risks rising, now key factor for

BOK nominee flags intervention action on won weakness as inflation risks rise China still has room to ease as inflation remains below target, BofA says Some retracement gap filling happening in Asia trade. But not for oil. Recap – Orbán ousted as Hungary shifts toward EU alignment in election shock PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

China’s inflation outlook has been nudged higher, but externally driven price pressures and weak domestic demand mean policymakers still have room to ease further. Summary: BofA lifts China inflation forecasts but sees pressures externally driven CPI seen at 1.0%, PPI at 1.2% for 2026 Inflation remains below PBoC comfort levels Weak domestic demand keeps easing

Energy shock meets politics: Trump braces for high fuel prices as Iran pressure ramps up. Summary: Trump flags gasoline prices likely to stay elevated into November midterms US announces targeted Hormuz blockade focused on Iranian-linked shipping Clarification: transit to non-Iranian ports still allowed War-driven energy shock feeds into domestic political pressure Opposition questions strategy; approval

Iran’s foreign minister: In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad Mou’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade ‘Zero lessons learned’ Dude is just having a bitch. Posting these if of interest to anyone. This article

WSJ (gated) report that Trump is weighing limited strikes alongside a Hormuz blockade after talks failed, keeping diplomacy alive but shifting toward pressure tactics. The policy path remains uncertain, with escalation and restraint both carrying significant risks. Summary: Trump weighing limited strikes alongside Hormuz blockade after talks collapse Full-scale war seen as less likely but

The unsurprising news from the weekend: US-Iran talks break down. Trump announces blockade of the Strait of Hormuz As I said on Friday, prior US administrations had extensive talks with Iran over years and years, occasionally achieving an incremental agreement on an issue. The goal of this admin was to get a wide ranging agreement

Sat: US/Iran Talks Sun: Hungary Election Mon: OPEC MOMR (Apr), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Mar), US Existing Home Sales (Mar), US Monthly Budget Statement (Mar) Tue: IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr), Chinese Balance of Trade (Mar), Japanese Industrial Production Final (Feb), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US

Fars is reporting that Israel will announce it’s commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut). The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend… WHat to expect? The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability.

The GBPUSD is heading into the close trading near the lower end of a well-defined swing-area ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). This zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts over the past six or so weeks, making it a key barometer for buyer conviction. Each test has attracted

The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides. Notably, Iran has said it can’t open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as ‘several’ US navy ships passed through. Trump said “We’re now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz”. I wonder if

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averages Isreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time Crude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the week US March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimate Israeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S. Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media

The major stock indices were mixed in trading today with the Dow industrial average and S&P index falling, but the NASDAQ index rising. While the indices were higher on the week with the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closing above their 100 day moving averages. The Dow industrial average trading above its 100 day moving

The price of crude oil is settling at $96.57. That is down $-1.30 or -1.33% on the day. For the week, the price is down $-16 or -14.29%. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $102.87 and $103.57. The big catalyst was the announcement of a cease-fire and the

US February PCE inflation 2.8% y/y vs 2.8% expected US initial jobless claims 219K vs 210K estimate US final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Netanyahu opens up direct negotiations with Lebanon Trump will ask Netanyahu to reduce bombing in Lebanon to help negotiations Iran wants a complete ceasefire in Lebanon before negotiations Statement from

Prior was +0.1% Ex-transport +1.2% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.5%) Revisions to durable goods orders: Orders -1.3% vs -1.4% prelim Ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.8% prelim Capital goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.7% vs +0.6% prelim Capital goods shipments nondefense ex-air +1.4% vs +1.3% prelim This is a solid report with the ex-transport number looking particularly

In an unusual post on TruthSocial, Pres. Trump says: Shares of Palantir reached a new low going back to June 2025 today at $122.68. The price is now trading at $128.20. The high reached $129.17. It is great Trump has the time to post on his stock picks, with all the other stuff going. Amazing.

There is the Strait of Hormuz and then there is domestic production. In the current week, the Baker Hughes rig count fell -3 at 545. Looking at the pieces: Oil rigs aree unchanged at 411 Natural Gas is down -3 at 127. Total rigs -3 at 545. Crude oil is is trading up $0.57 at

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Earlier: ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05 Yuan seen strengthening to

The S&P index has dipped into negative territory with the price is now down 5 points or -0.08% at 6819.25. The low price reached 6818.42. The NASDAQ index is still higher by 66 points or 0.29% but trading at session lows. The Dow industrial average is down 223 points or -0.47%. The S&P index is

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The gains were led by Italy’s FTSE MIB which is closing just below its all-time high price reached back to 2000 at 48909.04. Spain’s Ibex close at 18204.31, which is getting close to its all-time high close of 18573.83. A look at the daily

In an interview with the New York Post President Donald Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” in case strikes on Iran resume Warned military action will follow if peace talks fail Said outcome of negotiations should be known within ~24 hours Peace talks taking place in Pakistan (Islamabad) following a

Prior month 53.3 Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8% Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2% Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5% 1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month 5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last month

The Fed nominee Kevin Warsh nomination hearing scheduled for next week is to be delayed. This is according to the New York Post. No new hearing date scheduled yet Delay due to Senate Banking Committee awaiting required paperwork Committee must give at least one week’s notice before holding the hearing Deadline to proceed as planned

The geopolitical tension continues with reports that Trump had a tense call with Israel Netanyahu on Lebanon. Trump wants Israel to slow down its bombings on Lebanon while negotiations for a cease-fire continue with Iran. Netanyahu does not want to stop the bombing. In other geopolitical news: Iran also wants the release of blocked assets

The USDCHF is trading to fresh session lows heading into the weekend, reaching its lowest level since March 24. The downside momentum is gaining traction as the price continues to move further away from the 100-day moving average at 0.7886. Earlier this week, the pair dipped below that moving average on Wednesday and again yesterday,

The EURUSD is pushing to a new session high following weaker-than-expected data from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped to a fresh record low at 47.6 (vs 52.0 expected), while 1-year inflation expectations jumped sharply to 4.8% from 3.8%. Ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict are clearly weighing on consumer confidence and shaping the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been

China exits factory-gate deflation, but weak consumer demand and rising energy costs highlight an uneven and fragile inflation backdrop. Summary: China PPI turns positive at +0.5% y/y, ending multi-year deflation CPI soft at +1.0% y/y, below expectations and slowing from prior Confirms earlier theme: imported energy inflation vs weak domestic demand Oil shock from Iran

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a notable upswing in the semiconductor sector, with major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) leading the charge. Nvidia is up by 2.22% and Broadcom by an impressive 5.45%, signaling strong investor confidence in this high-tech segment. Meanwhile, consumer cyclicals also see gains, particularly with Amazon (AMZN)

Japan March PPI 2.6% y/y expected 2.4%, prior 2% and 0.8% m/m expected 0.9%, prior -0.1% I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and implications. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fars is out with the following report: An informed source, in an interview with Fars reporter following up on the negotiation axes, stated: Tehran considers the option of negotiating with Washington off the table until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and it has strongly asserted this position. According to this informed source, one

ADB warns prolonged Middle East disruptions could significantly slow Asia growth and drive a sharp rise in inflation. Summary: ADB warns Asia-Pacific growth could slow sharply if Middle East disruptions persist Growth seen at 4.7% in 2026 under prolonged disruption vs ~5.1% baseline Region could lose 1.3pp of growth over 2026–27 if conflict drags on

The broader US stock indices are set to open modestly higher with the NASDAQ up 60 points in premarket trading and the S&P index up around 10 points. Yesterday, the S&P closed above its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since March 4. That moving average currently comes in at 6804.01. The closing

Japan expands oil reserve releases and diversifies supply routes to mitigate Middle East disruption risks. Summary: Japan to release an additional 20 days of oil reserves from May Follows earlier 50-day release initiated in March Total reserves remain substantial at ~230 days Tokyo aims to source over 50% of imports outside Hormuz routes Diversifying supply

Headlines: Oil prices consolidate ahead of the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad. What’s next? The oil market faces a major reckoning if US-Iran peace talks fail Iran does not offer any goodwill gestures on Strait of Hormuz crossing ahead of talks After talking the talk, it is time for US (and Iran) to walk the

Japan’s wholesale inflation surge highlights rising cost pressures, with the BoJ warning of potential stagflation risks amid the Iran-driven energy shock. Summary: Japan wholesale inflation (CGPI) rises 2.6% y/y, above expectations Input costs surge, with import prices jumping 7.9% y/y Broad-based price pressures driven by oil, metals, chemicals BOJ flags vigilance on stagflation risk but

It all comes down to this. After agreeing on a two-week ceasefire, it now boils down to negotiations between the US and Iran to see what becomes of this temporary truce. There have been a lot of mixed messages since the start of the week but all of that won’t matter if we get positive

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 2bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As we count down to negotiations in Islamabad, it looks like Iran continues to want to hold its leverage ahead of talks with the US. According to the latest shipping data from Reuters, there’s still very minimal and restricted activity along the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. The data shows that only

Summary: New Zealand manufacturing PMI eased to 53.2 in March (from 54.8 prior) Sector remains in expansion but momentum is slowing New orders strongest component; deliveries weakest at neutral Negative sentiment among firms jumped sharply to 62% Iran war cited as a key source of uncertainty and concern Data suggests solid Q1 growth, but rising

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices dived on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been saying was part of the ceasefire

Summary: Japan FinMin Katayama downplays immediate oil shortage risks despite war backdrop Signals limited urgency on energy contingency measures for now G7 aligned that Middle East conflict must not be prolonged Highlights upcoming focus on critical minerals at G7 Plays down risks from private credit, no signs of systemic stress Uncertainty remains on domestic policy

While the data is not really the focus there is some big news expected from Chinese wholesale inflation data for March. China’s prolonged battle with deflation may be nearing a turning point, with early signs suggesting a return to positive price growth across key indicators. Rising global energy costs and base effects are expected to

Suspiciously timed trades and prediction market gains during the Iran conflict have sparked ethics concerns, prompting a White House warning and calls for tighter regulation. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carries the report. Summary: White House warned staff against betting on markets amid Iran war developments Warning followed suspiciously timed surge in oil futures trading

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The price for oil that you’re seeing on the screen is nothing more than a mirage. That is where markets are currently sitting at. WTI crude is sitting under $100 and even though it has been climbing a little since the Wednesday plunge, it belies the fact that prices in the physical market are much

Summary: BoJ’s Himino says Japan not currently in stagflation Warns prolonged Middle East conflict could create stagflation-like conditions Highlights policy dilemma: weaker growth vs rising inflation BoJ to assess scale and duration of shock before adjusting policy Reaffirms data-dependent approach at each meeting Signals flexibility, but no shift away from inflation target Bank of Japan

Mixed signals dominate as Trump talks up oil flows while diplomacy remains unclear. Summary: Trump claims oil will “very quickly” start flowing again Comment clashes with ongoing shipping disruption and weak Hormuz traffic Reports of US–Iran talks in Pakistan emerge, then are denied by Iranian state-linked media Conflicting signals highlight lack of coordinated diplomacy Iran-linked

Bank of Korea, the South Korean central bank, kept its policy interest rate steady at 2.5%, as expected. Eyeing fuel and domestic inflation, growth risks. Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finmin Katayama: Govt ready to take action on all fronts vs markets We are of the view that speculative action is heightening in crude oil, futures and FX markets I have been saying govt ready to take decisive action but won’t elaborate on future response Verbal intervention effort. This article was written by Eamonn

Dos Bocas matters less as a global crude-supply swing factor than as a refining and fuel-security risk. In today’s market, that still matters. Summary: Dos Bocas is Mexico’s flagship new refinery and a core part of Pemex’s energy self-sufficiency push. Nameplate capacity is about 340,000 bpd, but recent runs have been closer to roughly 205,000

ICYMI: Zandi warns the labour market is weaker than payrolls suggest, with his VCI indicator signalling recession risks may already be materialising. Summary: Mark Zandi warns March payrolls overstate labour market strength Job growth weak when stripping out distortions and healthcare hiring Recession risks remain elevated, near “coin flip” odds New “Vicious Cycle Index (VCI)”

China inflation. PPI first positive y/y since September of 2022. I’ll have more to come on this separately, detail, analysis etc. PPI m/m +1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US regulators convene major banks over AI-driven cyber risks, highlighting growing concern over systemic vulnerabilities. Info via Bloomberg (gated). Summary: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held urgent meeting with major banks Focus: cyber risks tied to advanced AI model “Mythos” Model reportedly capable of identifying and exploiting system vulnerabilities Regulators

Warsh hearing delay signals Powell likely to remain in place for now. Summary: Senate Banking Committee drops plans for Warsh hearing next week Delay due to missing nomination paperwork Pushes back timeline for any Fed leadership transition Suggests Jerome Powell likely remains in place for now Adds near-term policy continuity amid elevated macro uncertainty Markets

Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.6% Nasdaq Comp +0.8% Russel 2000 +0.6% DJIA +0.6% Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% There were some large divergences today. Amazon was up 5.5% on a report that it may sell its AI chips to other companies, making it a direct competitor to Nvidia. Meta also continued to gain, climbing 2.7% as

Yesterday’s relief rally in software stocks was quickly crushed and today the war lows were promptly taken out. The IGV software ETF is down 4.6% on the day. While the war was going on, Anthropic released more details on Claude and just yesterday, Meta released a solid model that highlights that scaling laws still apply.

Iran Pres. Pezeshkian is on the wires saying: Cease-fire reflects imposing the will of the Iranian nation on the enemy Iran “is not at war with any nation” Actions described as a response to aggression, not escalation Cease-fire approved unanimously by key pillars of the regime Decision made with guidance and approval from top leadership

Today’s USD 22bln 30-year bond auction will be watched closely after the prior sale stopped at a high yield of 4.871%, which was above the six-auction average of 4.745%. The last auction showed a tail of -0.7bps, better than the -0.3bps six-auction average, while the bid-to-cover came in at 2.45x, a touch above the 2.42x

Second reading was +0.7% The final Q3 reading was +4.4% Consumer spending final 1.9% vs +3.5% prior Q4 corporate profits after tax +5.7% vs +4.7% prior GDP final sales +0.3% vs +4.5% prior Inflation metrics: GDP deflator 3.7% vs 3.8% expected Core PCE final 2.7% vs 2.7% expected PCE prices final 2.9% vs 2.8% prior

High yield 4.876% Level at the time of the auction 4.871% Tail 0.5 basis point versus auction average of -0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.39X versus auction average of 2.42X Directs 24.23% versus auction average of 24.0% Indirects 64.14% versus auction average of 66.0% Dealers 11.62% versus 6 auction average of 9.9% AUCTION GRADE:

I take this as good news that the two issues are being linked by the US. We may be seeing some kind of final flurry of strikes before the Strait is opened and Israel and Lebanon have a ceasefire as well. The market is also taking this as good news as the S&P 500 ticks

The NZDUSD surged higher yesterday, driven by broad USD selling following the cease-fire headlines and supported by a slightly more hawkish tilt from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The combination gave buyers the momentum needed to break through key technical levels. From a technical perspective, the pair pushed above the 100-bar moving average on

There are some real questions about the health of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with some suggesting he’s in a coma but a statement was read on Iran State TV that was attributed to him. Regarding the region, the statement says Iran is still awaiting an appropriate reaction from southern neighbors so that Iran can

Trump in a phone interview with NBC says: He is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach. Iranian leaders speak differently when in a meeting than they do to the press They are much more reasonable They are agreeing to all things that they have to agree to. Remember they been conquered. They

US oil industry warns Hormuz toll plan risks global shipping cost surge and precedent. Summary: US oil industry pushing back on Hormuz toll proposal Lobbying White House, State Department, VP Vance Estimated cost: ~$2.5mn per shipment Would significantly raise transport and insurance costs Major concern over global precedent Risk other chokepoints adopt similar toll systems

The USDJPY is pushing higher, supported by a modest rebound in yields. The 10-year yield is up about 2 basis points—nothing dramatic, but a shift from earlier declines that is helping underpin the pair. From a technical perspective, yesterday’s sharp move lower tested a key swing area between 158.01 and 158.26. Sellers briefly pushed the

Comments from an unnamed senior Lebanon official: Lebanon is advocating for a temporary ceasefire to allow for talks with Israel Any talks would be on a separate track but use the same model as US-Iran truce No date or location set yet Lebanon needs US as guarantor of any deal with Israel Meanwhile, an Axios

Prior was -0.5% Wholesale sales +2.7% vs +0.4% expected Prior sales +1.1% vs +0.5% initially reported This number is a big boost for Q1 GDP trackers and likely indicates a response to the Supreme Court halting tariffs. That positive GDP from inventories — in that case — could be unwound by higher imports in the

There is a nice pop in risk assets after Axios reported that Israel will open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peace. Here is the post from Axios’ Barak Ravid: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations

This is what the estimates are looking for ahead of the March report tomorrow: CPI +0.9% m/m (prior +0.3%) CPI +3.3% y/y (prior +2.4%) Core CPI +0.3% m/m (prior +0.2%) Core CPI +2.7% y/y (prior +2.5%) Even though it will be a case of energy prices boosting headline inflation, core prices are also expected to

As North American trading gets underway on Thursday, markets are grappling with a familiar but critical question: are we moving toward a sustained cease-fire and de-escalation, or is this just a pause before tensions ramp back up? Right now, the answer is anything but clear—and that uncertainty is driving price action across all asset classes.

Our delegation will head to peace talks in Pakistan US must stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon Any peace in the region must include Lebanon, the coming hours are very critical Iran was on the verge of responding to the ceasefire violation last night but Pakistan intervened Meanwhile, Israel just issued an evacuation warning for Beirut’s

The EURUSD is pushing to new session highs, with the move supported by softer oil prices and a modest easing in geopolitical tensions. Headlines out of the Middle East have helped sentiment, after Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu signaled a shift toward diplomacy—directing his cabinet to focus on Hezbollah disarmament and potential normalization talks with Lebanon. This

May WTI crude oil is now up $7.66 to $102.08 on the day. The market is increasingly worried that crude supplies will grow tighter as the Strait remains essentially closed during negotiations. Officials will meet Saturday in Pakistan but in the meantime, the crude isn’t moving and Iran has attached that to potential tolls and

Well, risk trades are on the retreat but it’s not really anything too outstanding after the gains yesterday. Major indices in Europe are down slightly for the most part, with only the DAX lower by a little over 1%. And even then, that is not a whole lot as the German benchmark index posted gains

Trump warns ceasefire conditional, signals escalation risk if Iran deal fails Summary: Trump says US forces will remain deployed around Iran Ceasefire described as conditional, not final Warns of stronger military response if deal breached Reiterates no nuclear weapons condition Emphasises Hormuz must remain open and safe Signals continued military readiness Highlights fragility of current

Gold and the US dollar are sending some positive signals as we carefully watch a delicate ceasefire. Rising gold and a slipping dollar are generally good signs for risk appetite and we’ve also seen US stock markets erase losses. Those moves come despite Israel sending evacuation warnings to southern Beirut and Iran warning it will

Tech struggles, energy surges: Analyzing today’s market shifts Today’s US stock market activity paints a picture of mixed fortunes across sectors. A notable divergence is seen as technology stocks face downward pressure, while energy stocks stand out with strong gains. Here’s a detailed breakdown from today’s heatmap. 📉 Technology Sector: Challenges Continue Microsoft (MSFT) is

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 7 bps (98% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 74 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 59 bps (60% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBA: 50 bps (60% probability of rate hike at the next

Westpac sees AUD capped as Hormuz uncertainty limits upside despite ceasefire Summary: Westpac sees AUD capped at 0.7100–0.7150 near term Break higher requires confirmation of de-escalation Focus on Strait of Hormuz fully reopening Ceasefire seen as uncertain, not yet durable Contradictory narratives weighing on sentiment Technical limits on shipping still in place AUD trading around

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1600-10 region and also the 1.1635 level. Now, the expiries are a little bit further away from the current spot price – especially the larger ones. But with the US-Iran truce

After the more optimistic showing yesterday, markets are not quite following up on that so far today. Traders and investors are looking guarded as the fragile truce between the US and Iran looks like it could fall apart at any time. After the gains yesterday, S&P 500 futures are now down 0.4% while major indices

The USDCAD moved lower in the wake of broad USD selling following the “cease-fire” headlines, with the initial push taking price below an upward sloping trendline. That break had the look of a momentum shift, but follow-through was lacking. Instead, the pair quickly snapped back higher—an early signal that sellers were not yet ready to

Headlines: Iran president reaffirms that ceasefire agreement has been violated Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran deal fails, vows Hormuz must stay open (bluster?) Another case of he said, she said for markets? Dollar holds steadier today as fragile US-Iran truce keeps traders guessing Gold remains supported amid the US-Iran ceasefire as focus turns

The weekly initial and continuing claims shows: Initial jobless claims 219K vs 210K estimate. Prior week 202K revised to 203K 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 209.5K versus 208.0K last week. Continuing claims 1.794M vs 1.840M estimate. Prior week 1.841M revised to 1.832M. 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.823M vs 1.837M

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq surged into new highs yesterday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. However, the market didn’t extend the gains as some negative news weighed a bit on the risk sentiment. The main culprit was Israel launching a large wave of strikes on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran insisting that Lebanon was

Macron tweet backs Iran–U.S. ceasefire but flags Hormuz, nuclear risks as key hurdles to lasting deal. Summary: Macron confirms talks with Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian Strong endorsement of ceasefire as “best possible” outcome Calls for full compliance across all theatres, including Lebanon Ceasefire seen as gateway to broader Middle East negotiations Flags key sticking

The USDCHF fell sharply yesterday on the back of broad USD selling, and in the process broke below a cluster of key technical levels, including: 200-day moving average at 0.7943 Swing level near 0.79235 100-day moving average at 0.78877 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.78735 That sequence of breaks signaled a meaningful

Prior was 2.8% Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Prior was +2.8% Core m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% exp Unrounded core PCE ___% vs +0.285% m/m prior PCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior Supercore (services ex-shelter) +0.2% m/m and +3.2% y/y Headline PCE Headline PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expected

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got a boost yesterday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditions supported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wiped out when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran insisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement. For now, the ceasefire is

Israeli strikes on Lebanon violate ceasefire agreement Attacks on Lebanon would deem ceasefire negotiations meaningless Iran will not abandon the Lebanese people This reaffirms what we already know from yesterday, with Iran already saying that three clauses to the ceasefire agreement have been violated. Besides this, Iran parliament speaker Qalibaf was also out on social

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver prices jumped yesterday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditions supported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wiped out when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran insisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement. For now, the ceasefire is still

Perth Mint sales drop as price volatility cools retail gold and silver demand Summary: Perth Mint gold sales down 35% m/m in March Silver sales nearly halved m/m Gold: 43,656 oz vs 67,249 oz prior Silver: 976k oz vs 1.92mn oz prior Both metals still higher year-on-year Gold +8% y/y, silver +37% y/y March decline

In an interview with Bloomberg former BoJ official says rate hike likely as inflation risks build despite war uncertainty. Summary: Former BoJ official Kaizuka says rate hike likely this month Warns BoJ risks falling behind inflation curve Middle East conflict seen as reinforcing inflation pressures Oil prices easing but expected to remain elevated BoJ data

Short and medium-term real interest rates are clearly negative Japan’s financial conditions remain accommodative Increased fiscal spending could crowd out private investment by pushing up market interest rates Negative interest rates are leading to moderate uptrend in private capital expenditure Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that despite shifts in global policy, Japan’s internal

Prior -0.5%; revised to 0.0% The drop in German industrial output was less than estimated in February, that despite a positive revision to the January estimate too. The less steep decline on the month sees overall production keep flat relative to the same month a year ago. The less volatile three-month comparison also shows a

The main consumer confidence index takes a dive from 39.7 in February to 33.3 in March. And that is the weakest reading since the middle of last year. The US-Iran conflict is threatening to derail the consumer recovery in Japan, not least with higher petrol prices and spillovers to higher inflation. And for the BOJ,

Goldman cuts near-term oil outlook as risk premium fades but keeps longer-term view. Summary: Goldman cuts Q2 oil forecasts Brent/WTI seen at $90/$87 in Q2 Driven by reduced geopolitical risk premium Early signs of Hormuz flows improving Front-end oil curve repricing lower Back-end forecasts unchanged Brent: $82/$80 (Q3/Q4) WTI: $77/$75 (Q3/Q4) Structural supply-demand still supportive

Hormuz remains effectively shut despite ceasefire, with tanker flows still halted. Summary: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed despite ceasefire No oil or gas tankers transiting waterway – NY Times cite Kpler, a global ship-tracking firm. Only limited dry cargo vessels making passage Iranian media says strait “fully closed” Reports of tankers being turned away Ship

Its all about the ceasefire, the ebb and flow of headlines, the cracks and chasms, news around this will be the driver during the session here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia steps in to secure fuel supply as Hormuz disruption exposes import risks Summary: Australia underwriting fuel imports via Export Finance Australia Deals struck with Ampol and Viva Energy Aims to boost supply amid Iran war disruptions Australia imports ~80% of liquid fuel Localised shortages already reported Government can direct distribution of fuel Volatility and

From a little earlier, Goldman says oil shocks lift rates short term but drive cuts as growth weakens Summary: Goldman says rates rising on oil-driven inflation fears Markets pricing tighter policy in near term Supply shocks create inflation vs growth trade-off Higher oil boosts inflation but drags on activity Historical pattern shows two-stage policy response

As global markets navigate a precarious geopolitical landscape, investor sentiment remains highly sensitive to diplomatic developments. Even as Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran deal fails, vows Hormuz must stay open to protect vital commodity supply chains, broader equities have responded favorably to the current pause in hostilities, a relief rally where the S&P

Ceasefire may delay Fed cuts as inflation risks outlast growth concerns Summary: Timiraos: ceasefire shifts Fed risk calculus Markets pricing slightly higher odds of cuts End of conflict removes key growth downside risk Weak growth argument for easing diminished Inflation risks remain elevated Energy and goods prices unlikely to fully reverse Financial conditions easing on

Goldman cuts Q2 oil to $90/$87, keeps $82/$80 Brent and $77/$75 WTI outlook Australia to underwrite fuel imports via Ampol, Viva amid supply risks Perth Mint gold, silver sales drop sharply in March after price slide Ceasefire may reduce case for Fed cuts as inflation risks persist: Timiraos AUD seen capped near 0.7150 as Hormuz

Kevin Hassett is Director of the National Economic Council in Trump’s White House. Says the oil price spike will raise the CPI Tries to soften the blow saying it’ll be a ‘one time’ thing. Yeah, right. Info via Fox. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via Reuters: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy posted a map showing alternative shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz to help transiting ships avoid naval mines, the semi-official Iranian news agency ISNA said early on Thursday A positive for ceasefire vibes. Sure need some! Not the map. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Yuan on the rise: ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05 — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.

There’s not much other detail from the report, besides noting that the Japanese government is said to be mulling over releasing an additional amount of oil from its reserves. The timing could be as early as May, with about 20 days’ worth of oil to be released. That according to sources familiar with the matter.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Earlier: ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05 PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump lashes NATO as alliance fractures widen over Iran conflict response Summary: Trump criticises NATO after meeting with Rutte Accuses allies of failing to support Iran war effort Renews rhetoric on Greenland tensions No clear commitment to remain in NATO Reports of potential US troop redeployments European allies resisting deeper involvement in conflict Spain reportedly

RBNZ sees growth recovery if ceasefire holds, but inflation risks remain elevated. Summary: RBNZ Governor expects economic growth in 2026 High-frequency data shows early-year momentum improving March stable but April likely softer amid geopolitical tensions Growth outlook tied to Middle East ceasefire holding Fuel price decline seen as key support for recovery RBNZ held cash

Cutthroat optimization is the hidden risk in Mythos and future AI models Iran parliamentary speaker says three clauses of the ceasefire agreement already broken Will fighting in Lebanon derail the ceasefire? FOMC Minutes showed a growing openness to rate hikes from some participants White House: Iran put forward a more reasonable and condensed plan Oil

RBNZ says growth hinges on conflict outcome as prior cuts still support economy Summary: Breman says rate cuts still providing economic stimulus Growth outlook tied to Middle East conflict resolution Swift ceasefire could support stronger growth this year Earlier data showed improving momentum pre-conflict March stable, April likely softer Supply disruptions key uncertainty alongside oil

ING turns bullish on yuan, citing policy shift and strong fundamentals. Earlier: Yuan seen strengthening to 6.8 as China resilience offsets seasonal weakness Summary: ING shifts yuan outlook into bullish scenario New USD/CNY forecast range: 6.70–7.05 Yuan up over 2% vs USD this year Outperforming most major and Asian currencies PBoC signalling tolerance for appreciation

Physical crude market signals acute shortage as cargoes price $20 above Brent despite ceasefire Summary: US crude cargoes into Europe priced $18–$20 above Dated Brent Implies outright prices above $150/bbl vs $134 benchmark Signals extreme tightness in physical crude market Occurs despite ceasefire-driven easing in benchmark sentiment Hormuz disruption and shipping risks still constraining flows

US equity markets posted strong gains in the aftermath of the ceasefire announcement. The gains would have been larger if not for lingering uncertainty around the sustainability of a ceasefire given ongoing fighting in Lebanon and unanswered questions about Hormuz tolls and uranium enrichment. For now, the mood is very positive: S&P 500 +2.5% Nasdaq

Highlights of the March 17-18 FOMC Minutes: ‘Vast majority’ saw upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment as elevated ‘Many’ judged it would likely become appropriate to lower rates if inflation declines in line with expectations ‘Some’ saw a ‘strong case’ for a two-sided description of future rate decisions — i.e. acknowledging hikes

It looks like Israel isn’t going to abide by any ceasefire in Lebanon and that seems to be ok with the United States. What’s not clear is whether it’s ok with Iran. The statement from Pakistan’s Prime Minister yesterday said: With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran

Some headlines from the White House press briefing: Iran can no longer distribute weapons to its proxies Iran asked for an agreed to a ceasefire Iran has agreed to open Hormuz Iran’s original plan was discarded Iran then put forward a more-reasonable plan Trump’s red lines have not changed We’ve seen an uptick in Strait

The broader US stock indices remain solidly higher on the day, with the S&P up 2.10% and the NASDAQ up 2.54%, but the tone has shifted as upside momentum stalls and a tug-of-war develops between buyers and sellers. The rally ran into a technical ceiling ahead of the 100-day moving average in both indices, and

Fed’s Jefferson signals policy patience as oil-driven inflation risks rise and labour market fragility builds. Full text is here. Summary: Jefferson flags downside risks to employment, upside risks to inflation Fed policy seen as appropriately positioned and near neutral Labour market balanced but vulnerable to negative shocks Inflation still above target, with oil shock pushing

Lebanon is quickly becoming the biggest problem in ceasefire talks. Israeli top officials today said the ceasefire doesn’t apply to Lebanon and backed that up with a huge wave of strikes, including targeting 100 locations in Beirut. Both France and Pakistan have said that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire but the US hasn’t weighed

A regional source tells CNN that a deal between the US and Iran is expected to be closed tonight. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD surged higher following the cease-fire announcement after the close yesterday, but the bullish move was already taking shape earlier in the session. The pair found support against an upward-sloping trendline, which gave buyers the foundation to push higher. That momentum carried the price above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, and through

Crude oil prices are down sharply today with the front contract trading at $94.40. That is down 16.43%. The low for the day reached $91.05. The high was $109.19. The markets are reacting to the “cease-fire” deal, but the price is still remains well above the pre-war levels near $61.45. Technically, the tumble to the

Hezbollah is a saying that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon affirms its right for a response, and only strengthens the groups determination to resist and confront the enemy. Israel is saying that they confirm the attack of a Hezbollah commander in Beirut Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based Shiite political and militant group that operates as one of

Toward the end of day yesterday, the NZDUSD wsa coiling near low levels (see post here). The price was above a lower upward sloping trend line, and below a downward sloping trend line. The subsequent move higher on the ceasefire headlines said the price above the swing low from March 23 at 0.5760, and above

Sector Overview The technology sector emerged as a standout today, driven by impressive performances in semiconductor stocks. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 2.07%, while Intel (INTC) outperformed with an impressive 6.43% jump. Another notable performer, Broadcom (AVGO), surged by 3.60%. This upward momentum suggests renewed investor confidence in tech’s growth potential.Meanwhile, the energy sector faced

The US Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1 PM ET, with the long-end coming into the sale after a sharp rally in bonds that has pushed yields lower toward the 4.25% area. That move lower in yields—helped by easing geopolitical tensions and softer inflation expectations—could support demand, but traders will be

US treasury auctioned off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.282% High-yield 4.282% WI level at the time of the auction 4.280% Tail 0.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of 0.3 basis points. Bid to cover 2.43X versus average 2.49X Directs 23.9% versus average 19.2%. Indirect 65.3% versus average

There is a big uncertainty about whether Lebanon is involved in the ceasefire and if Iran will accept it if not. There is a report that a ship was turned around due to strikes on Lebanon. At the same time, Iran itself seems to be violating the agreement as it has sent drone strikes today.

The big news so far today: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Iran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal — Meanwhile, other news continues. The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a

It’s not at all clear what the basis for the ceasefire is and what are the points that will lead to a lasting agreement. That seems to be angering Trump, who is lashing out at the media again. More importantly, he said that the peace will be discussed behind closed doors. Numerous Agreements, Lists, and

The U.S. dollar has been under pressure for a while now. For starters, the country’s fiscal situation just keeps getting worse — national debt has shot past $39 trillion, even though the original plan was to bring it down. So far, strong demand for U.S. Treasuries has kept things from spiraling, but investors are already

The major US indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower, the S&P and NASDAQ index are marginally higher. The declines for the day were you raised after reports that Pakistan was brokering a cease fire deal. Pres. Trump said that negotiations were heated. The proposed deal calls for 2 weeks of kicking

The focus is hopefully going to shift back to the real economy now and that will include tomorrow’s PCE report and Friday’s CPI. During the time when the war dominated headlines, the news on the US economy was mostly good, highlighting that the economy was improving in February before bombs started falling. The big news

Prior 44.5 The downturn in the UK construction sector continues in March, even if at a less marked pace than in February. Of note, residential work remained by far the weakest-performing category. However, the standout in the report was a rapid acceleration in input cost inflation. That is leading to companies seeing their operating margins

In February 2026, the French trade balance showed a sharp decline of €3.8 billion to reflect a deficit of €5.8 billion. That owes to a significant increase in imports by €2.6 billion and a decrease in exports of only €1.2 billion. Looking at the details, the increase in imports was driven by higher imports of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

RBNZ expands media outreach after hold decision amid uncertain outlook – Breman schedule Reports that Iran will allow only 10-15 ships / day to pass through Strait of Hormuz Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected Bank of Korea seen holding rates on April 10 as oil shock

The war market is unwinding as the hopes for the Strait of Hormuz opening and hopes for denuclearization propelling the moves. The price of oil is down -17%. The 10 year yield is down -10.7 basis points to 4.235%, the US stock indices are sharply higher with Dow up 1310 points , the Nasdaq is

8pm US Eastern time is the time to watch, an extension is expected then or before. Oil is down equites up gold up This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3% UK house prices dipped a little in March, with the average property price now seen at £299,677. That also sees the annual house price growth slow to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in February. That shows the market has long some bounce going into the spring season but perhaps relative economic uncertainty from the

The USDCHF is extending to the downside, with price action breaking through a series of key technical levels that had previously acted as support. The pair has now moved below the 200-day moving average at 0.79428, the swing low from last week at 0.7903, and the 100-day moving average at 0.7888, and is probing below

Headlines: Risk-on wave tides over markets as US, Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire US president Trump says will work closely with Iran amid “very productive” regime change Oil prices dive after US-Iran ceasefire agreement; focus turns to Friday’s negotiations The US Dollar sinks on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement The S&P 500 almost erases March

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 surged into new highs today and basically erased all the March losses after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties

From the man himself: “The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.”

Bank of Korea set to hold on April 10 as oil shock clouds inflation and growth outlook. Summary: Bank of Korea expected to hold rates at 2.50% on April 10 Reuters poll shows unanimous no-change expectation Rates seen on hold through 2026 amid uncertainty Oil prices surge over 50%, lifting inflation risks Korea highly exposed

There are good developments about Iran They have agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz US and allies have agreed to stop attacking Iran That’s the basis of the “fragile truce” currently Some people within Iran have responded very favourably to the truce US negotiating team to work in good faith to get to an

Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.8% This is very much lagging data as the whole picture will change once we get to the March report. That as we will see a surge in energy inflation especially, which will translate to higher price pressures here and eventually make its way into consumer prices too. The picture before

Prior -11.1% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: Nothing in Federal Reserve act says the Fed should make the stock and Pres. happy. If actively talking about taking away the independence of the Fed, that is a bad idea. Inflation could come roaring back. Oil prices rising is a stagflationary shock. Fed is now in

Iran’s top joint military command Says it will deal with infrastructure of U.S. and its allies in the region in a way that will deprive them from the region’s oil and gas for years Says it will continue attacks on military, security and economic infrastructure of Israel and U.S. in the region with greater intensity

Trump: A whole civilization will die tonight Trump says in ‘heated negotiations’ with Iran Report: Iran ‘positively reviewing’ the request for a ceasefire Pakistan asks Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks and Iran to open Hormuz for 2 weeks Iranian media warns residents to stay off bridges in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE Vance

Trump announced a ceasefire: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Note this though, from Trump’s statement (a ‘truth’ tweet): subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz The White House adds that Israel has agreed to the temporary ceasefire.

The obvious target of such an attack would be the King Fahd Causeway, which is the main artery between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with millions of crossings each year. Bahrain’s hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment sectors are heavily dependent on visits from Saudi Arabia, along with many jobs that rely on cross-border commuting. The series of

Eyes are once again on the war makers. The current state of play is Pakistan has proposed a 2 week ceasefire to them both. Under consideration is the word from both. Trump’s deadline is 8pm US Eastern time, 0000 GMT. Apart from that the RBNZ is expected on hold today. I’ll have more to come

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices dived today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The ceasefire included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as condition. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

There are some positive ticks on this., which cites a senior official from Iran talking to Reuters. In terms of the two week proposal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavit tells Axios: The President has been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come This article was written by Adam Button at

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The risk-on wave across broader markets is helping to see a strong bounce in precious metals today. That as hope springs eternal after the US and Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire in trying to work out a more lasting peace in the region. Typically, fading geopolitical tensions tend to be a negative for the

Situation in the Middle East is still severely disrupting shipping and supply chains Hopefully the Strait of Hormuz will reopen About 1,000 ships are still stuck in the region, six of which are from Hapag-Llyod None of our ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz The extra costs per week due to the crisis

While overall business activity picked up in March, it belies the underlying mood in the sector as input cost inflation posts a record rise on the month. The pick up is helped by an improved mood in housing activity, posting its shallowest decline so far this year. In turn, that makes commercial activity the weakest-performing

Shariff: Says diplomatic efforts are progressing steadily Requests Trump extend the deadline for two weeks Requests Iran open the Strait for two weeks as a goodwill gesture Urges all sides to observe a ceasefire for two weeks to allow diplomacy and achieve a conclusive termination of the war Some positive movements in markets on this

High-yield 3.897% WI level at the time of the auction 3.909% Tail of -1.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of -0.3 basis points . Bid to cover 2.68X vs 6 auction average of 2.66X Dealers 13.28% versus 6 auction average of 12.3%. Directs 11.9% versus 6 auction average of 25.8%. Indirects 74.8% versus 6

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

Iran’s biggest aluminium producer, Iranian Aluminium Company, located in Arak, has been hit. . The city of Arak is highly sensitive, as it is home to the IR-40 heavy water reactor, a key part of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure . IRALCO manufactures aluminium products that can be used in military and nuclear-related applications, including missile casings,

The news, ICYMI: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Iran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal Joy for now, with difficult negotiations ahead. How long will this tentative ceasefire last? Some are giving it 48 hours. Don’t touch that dial! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Well, here we go again. Another two-week ceasefire but this time around, it seems like there is a better feeling that the war is slowly winding down. And perhaps more importantly, this time Iran is also agreeing to it and coming to the negotiating table. US president Trump dropped the news overnight and that is

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so I would wager that their relative impact will be minimal to none on a day like this. As things stand, the

Trump proposes two-week Iran ceasefire, signalling progress but leaving high risk of breakdown. Summary: Trump announces two-week ceasefire conditional on Hormuz reopening Claims US and Iran close to broader peace agreement 10-point Iranian proposal seen as workable negotiation basis Pakistan emerges as key intermediary in talks Ceasefire described as “double-sided” but conditional Significant risk remains

Trump was asked about Iran and said he “can’t comment” because he’s in “heated negotiations” with Iran. At this point it’s clear that negotiations are ongoing but we’re only four hours away from a brutal escalation. The market closed with a positive note so hopefully that can continue into tomorrow. More: Trump says he’s about

Israel’s reluctance casts doubt on ceasefire durability despite US-Iran progress. Summary: Israel signals reluctance to fully embrace US-Iran ceasefire, according to CNN Will follow US lead but still has additional military targets Iran demands include limits on Israeli operations against proxies Ceasefire described as tactical, not a final peace deal Talks to continue in Islamabad

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. The rate today at 6.8680 is the strongest for CNY since 17 April 2023. PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 78pday reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will compared to the 6 auction average for the major components. Below are the last values at the last 3 year note auction followed by the 6 auction average. High Yield: 3.579% (6-auction avg.

RBNZ seen holding steady as oil shock lifts inflation but weak growth argues for patience. Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid oil-driven supply shock Inflation seen rising above 4% with upside risks depending on oil path Growth outlook deteriorating, with recovery pushed into 2027 Central bank likely to look through initial inflation

RBNZ seen on hold as it navigates oil-driven inflation shock while signalling patience on policy tightening. Due at 0200 GMT / 2200 US Eastern time Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid energy-driven inflation shock Policymakers likely to look through near-term inflation but watch for persistence Communication to balance avoiding overtightening vs maintaining

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though a deal by Trump’s 8 pm ET deadline remains a “longshot”, Axios writes. This is the latest in the non-stop series of ‘leaks’ on the US/Israel-Iran war and it cites an Israeli official a “two other sources”

The US stocks have erased their declines. The S&P is up 5.02 points or 0.08%. The NASDAQ index is up 21.51 points or 0.10%. Crude oil is now lower with the May contract down -$0.12 or -0.12% at $112.40. The bond yields are also in negative territory with the 10 year down-2.2 basis points in

The NZDUSD is coiling as the clock ticks toward the 8 PM peace deadline, with price action tightening into a classic consolidation pattern. The pair remains capped below a downward-sloping trendline and the 100-hour moving average, and although buyers briefly pushed above both levels today, the move quickly failed—keeping sellers in control for now. At

Prior 51.9 Composite PMI 50.7 vs 50.5 prelim Prior 51.9 The headline estimate is a 10-month low while the composite reading is a 9-month low. All of this now points to the notion that the euro area economic recovery from last year is taking an abrupt knock. That as new orders/business fall hard amid elevated

The USDCHF moved lower yesterday, but importantly, the decline stalled right into a key technical cluster—the 100 and 200 hour moving averages—and the pair ultimately closed near those levels. That set the stage for today’s price action, where sellers made another push lower, but once again found willing buyers leaning against that same moving average

Prior 53.5 Final Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.9 prelim Prior 53.2 Key findings: New business falls for first time since last September Output price inflation eases despite spike in cost pressures Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The war in the Middle East has put the brakes on growth in

Iran’s Kharg Island targeted with several strikes Strike hits railway bridge in Iran’s Kashan killing two Israel: Completed a wave of attacks on Iran a short while ago It looks like we are entering a new phase of escalation as Israel confirmed a wave of airstrikes across Iran, targeting critical economic and transport hubs. Mehr

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating sharply, setting the tone for the trading day—and the clock is now ticking toward President Trump’s 8 PM deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the threat of widespread destruction of Iran’s electrical and bridge infrastructure. Ahead of that deadline, reports indicated that Israel, with

The EURUSD is pushing higher, with buyers taking control after leaning against key support in the European session. The pair held firmly above its 100-hour moving average (1.15447), with the session low reaching 1.15473 just ahead of the North American open. That hold was technically significant—it gave buyers the green light to step back in

Apple foldable iPhone faces delays as engineering issues hit test production phase US doubts Iran deadline extension as tough response seen as negotiating tactic (Axios) New Zealand Commodity prices jump. Middle East conflict drives near-record ANZ index surge Australia spending holds firm as inflation jumps and job ads fall Yuan seen strengthening to 6.8 as

Iran’s Kharg Island targeted with several strikes, Iran’s Kashan railway bridge hit too Senior Iranian source: Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US Gold maintains the bearish bias as Trump’s “final” deadline nears. What’s next? Yen-tervention likely to happen in the 161 to 163 range – Nomura UK March final services PMI 50.5

Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.5%) Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.8% vs +0.4% expected Prior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.3%) Durable goods ex-defense -1.2% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.2%) Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.1% (revised to -0.4%) This is a mixed bag. There are some pockets of strength but

The White House says, only the president knows on Iran negotiations. The Iranian regime has until 8 PM to make a deal. In other news, : The IRGC commander declares new phase of reprisal attacks against aggressors, and warned that if the US crosses redlines, the IRGC’s response will be extend far beyond the region

US signals fading patience on Iran deadline but keeps door open to last-minute deal. Summary: US doubts another deadline extension Iran’s response seen as tough but tactical White House views stance as negotiating posture Trump open to any deal outcome Military action may still be delayed if talks progress Situation remains finely balanced between escalation

Engineering hurdles threaten to delay Apple’s foldable iPhone rollout as EVT issues emerge. Summary: Apple’s foldable iPhone facing engineering delays Issues arise during EVT (test production phase) Suppliers warned of possible schedule shifts April–May key window to resolve challenges Initial production targeted at 7–8M units Premium positioning limits early volume Apple’s long-anticipated entry into the

The major U.S. indices are closing higher, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a resolution to the Iran conflict. The tone was supported by cautious optimism, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated. President Trump set a hard deadline, warning that the U.S. could target bridges and energy infrastructure starting at 8 PM ET

Prior 52.3 Composite PMI 49.2 vs 52.1 prior Key findings: Fresh declines in output and new business Highest rate of cost inflation in over three years, driving a steeper hike in charges Confidence among weakest in more than five years Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The Italian services economy showed signs

Summary: Fire broke out in La Boca near the Bridge of the Americas and fuel-linked facilities Bridge traffic was suspended while authorities assessed structural safety One person was reported missing and two firefighters were injured Preliminary reports indicate the blaze began in a fuel tanker and spread Incident occurred beside the Pacific entrance area of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been consolidating since Thursday’s selloff when Trump disappointed the market in his address to the nation by maintaining the hawkish stance towards Iran and reiterating the 2–3 week timeline for ending the war. We haven’t got any meaningful development in the meantime, although Trump set a “final” deadline for Iran to

It’s a dangerous moment in world history right now as we count down to Trump’s 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to make a deal. So far there is no indication that Trump will move that deadline for the fourth time. On the wires now, a ‘senior Iranian sources’ is out with some comments to

Following a series of successful cashback promotions in 2025, leading broker XM has launched a new cashback promotion that pays clients for their trades. In spring 2026, it amps up its offering rewarding active traders up to $7 back for every lot traded and giving them the option to unlock an unlimited amount of cash.

Trump posts on Truth Social: A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will

Scotiabank is out with a note today on Meta and it highlights a slate of problems in the company’s core business: Advertising. It paints a picture of Meta that should worry bulls more than the macro backdrop does. Scotia said that 25% of the expert’s advertising clients are either pulling back or walking away from

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 and 1.1525 levels. They don’t tie to any technical significance but could play some role in terms of limiting price action in the session ahead, depending on the market

NY Fed Pres. and voting member Willaims is apeaking and says: Iran war impact will drive up headline inflation things that inflation from Iran war will go directly into headline. Inflation given energy. Inflation issue should be around 2.75%. it is very focused on underlying inflation. Story on core inflation hasn’t changed very much. Hasn’t

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday, pushing back above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which had been tightly converged—a signal that momentum was trying to shift back in favor of the buyers. However, the rally ran into a familiar ceiling, with sellers stepping in near 0.6938, the low end of a broader swing area that

We already got a sense of that with the stronger verbal intervention last week, before some market optimism helped to keep further dollar strength in check. But as the volatility swings continue and the Middle East conflict drags on, the risks continue to stay heightened for the dollar to gain and for the yen to

Summary: Israel prepares expanded strike list targeting Iranian energy and infrastructure Plans contingent on U.S. approval, with Trump decision seen as pivotal Israeli officials sceptical diplomacy will succeed Ceasefire demands include full uranium handover and end to enrichment Netanyahu raised concerns directly with Trump in recent talks Military coordination discussed following rescue of U.S. pilots

This is a bizarre communication strategy where you have Vance and Trump saying very different things. Vance is now saying the war could end “very shortly”. The military objectives of the Iran war have been completed, Vance said and added that “we hope Iran is smart.” He reiterated that 8 pm ET is the deadline

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower yesterday, but the price action was more about consolidation than conviction, with the pair trading above and below its 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.3916) and settling into a sideways range. That pause has been important technically, as it has allowed the 200-hour moving average (now at 1.3904) to catch up

Blue Owl shares hit record lows as redemption requests surge, forcing limits on withdrawals and loan sales. The move highlights growing stress in private credit, with liquidity concerns and AI-related risks weighing on sentiment. Summary: Blue Owl shares hit record lows amid sustained selling pressure Redemption limits imposed after surge in withdrawal requests Highlights liquidity

SpaceX gears up for record IPO with massive retail allocation and June roadshow. Summary: SpaceX targets late May prospectus, early June roadshow Plans major global IPO with potential $75bn raise Valuation could reach ~$1.75 trillion Retail investors to play central role in allocation 1,500 retail investors to be invited to dedicated event Broad international retail

Prior 53.9 Final Composite PMI 50.3 vs 51.0 prelim Prior 53.7 Key findings: Output growth eases amid renewed decline in new work Input price inflation highest since April 2025 due to surge in fuel costs Business optimism falls to its lowest for nine months Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

Yuan seen strengthening despite seasonal headwinds as fundamentals and flows dominate. Earlier: PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8854, the strongest, for CNY, in nearly 3 years. Summary: Strategists see yuan strengthening to ~6.8/USD in Q2 Defies typical seasonal weakness from tourism and dividends Currency up ~3% in Q1 vs peers Strong

Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US Tehran has set preconditions for talks with the US on a lasting peace Preconditions include an immediate halt to strikes, guarantees strikes will not be repeated and compensation for damages Under a permanent peace deal, Tehran demands fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz

Japanese Household Spending February 2026 Japan’s households reduced spending for a third straight month -1.7% y/y vs. expected -0.7%, prior -1% +1.5% m/m vs. expected 2.6%, prior -2.5% —- Also … Summary: Katayama declines to comment on JGB yield levels Flags G7 concern over oil-driven market volatility Notes close coordination with G7 finance ministers and

China gold reserves at the end of March 2026: 74.38 million troy ounces In February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of March 2026: $342.76 billion In February 2026: $387.59 billion In terms of value, China’s reserves in gold declined on the month but that is to be expected

Prior 49.6 Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.3 prelim Prior 49.9 The readings might be revised higher in the final report but they are still much softer than in February. A sharper decline in new business weighed on business activity with the war in the Middle East also reportedly hit order books. As such, it is

Prior -3.1 That’s the softest reading since April 2025 as euro area investor sentiment plunges amid the US-Iran conflict. The surge higher in energy prices and supply chain disruptions are two major factors in dragging down investor morale with Sentix noting that “investors realise that recession is once again on the table”. Adding that “the

Australia data show resilient spending but rising inflation and softer labour demand. Summary: Household spending +0.3% m/m in Feb, ahead of expectations Annual spending growth steady at 4.6% Services spending strong, goods modest Data predates energy-driven inflation shock TD-MI inflation gauge surges 1.3% m/m in March Signals renewed inflation pressures, likely fuel-driven Job ads fall

Summary: Services PMI falls to 46.3, back into contraction after 26 months Composite PMI fell to 46.6 in March, down from 52.4 in February Sharp drop from 52.8, weakest since November 2023 New orders decline, with exports hit by Middle East conflict Broad-based weakness, led by finance & insurance Input costs surge to multi-year highs

Middle East supply shock drives broad commodity surge, pushing ANZ index near record highs. Summary: Commodity prices surged in March amid Middle East conflict ANZ index rose 4.1% m/m, near record highs Gains broad-based; dairy, aluminium led Supply fears triggered precautionary buying UAE smelter damage tightened aluminium supply NZD weakness boosted local price index to

Summary: Anthropic plans ~$200m investment in AI-focused PE venture Total raise could reach ~$1bn with major buyout firms involved Platform aims to deploy AI tools across PE portfolio companies Focus on automation and enterprise-scale integration Competes with similar initiative being explored by OpenAI PE firms seen as ideal channel for scaling AI adoption Signals shift

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The likelihood of adverse inflation scenario is increasing Inflation expectations may shift faster due to memory of price surge after the Russia-Ukraine conflict ECB must be ready to act if signs of inflation persistence emerge But it is too early to say if a rate hike is needed on 30 April for now Inflation expectations

Saudi defence ministry Says it has intercepted and destroyed 7 ballistic missiles targeting Eastern Region Says missile debris fell near energy facilities, damage being assessed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A low-key sort of session ahead for incoming data. None of this is likely to move markets too much upon release. Asia will be holding its breath ahead of the latest Trump war deadline: Trump extends Iran deadline to Tuesday, aggressively threatens power grid destruction Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is ‘final deadline’ This article was

It’s been the case for a few weeks now. We start the week with some sense of renewed optimism only for it to be dashed through the coming days and then markets choosing to de-risk into the weekend. Will this week be the same? There’s certainly an air of familiarity to it. US president Trump

Summary: Negotiators see low odds of Iran meeting Trump’s Hormuz deadline U.S. may target bridges and power plants if talks fail Pattern of ultimatum → strikes or extensions seen in past Iranian officials expect continued military pressure regardless of talks Ceasefire efforts ongoing but limited progress Trump signalling both openness to talks and readiness to

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said on Monday that the US stock market correction is largely done, with rates, not war, the final hurdle before equities resume higher. Summary: Wilson sees current weakness as a late-stage correction within an ongoing bull market S&P 500 forward P/E down ~18%, a rare reset outside recession/tightening cycles Earnings growth accelerating,

Major US stock indices close today with gains to start the new trading week Trump Press Conference: The entire country can be taken out in one night Netanyahu urged Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire – report Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is ‘final deadline’ Iran rejects ceasefire in reply

HSBC’s Kettner says markets have triggered a buy signal after a sharp positioning reset, but warns a hot CPI could push yields toward 4.5%, a “danger zone” that risks broad pressure across equities, credit and EM assets. Earlier: Morgan Stanley says US stock correction largely done. Rates the final hurdle before higher But: ICYMI: Fed’s

The EURUSD moved higher during the Asian and early European sessions, breaking above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages—a shift that tilted the short-term bias more bullish. The pair extended to a high near 1.15549, pushing above a key swing area before encountering sellers. Since that high, the corrective move lower has been orderly,

Sector Overview The US stock market saw a vibrant momentum today, largely driven by robust performances in the technology and financial sectors. The technology sector showed remarkable resilience with notable gains from giants like Apple (AAPL), which soared by an impressive 2.41%. Supported by consistent demand for hardware innovations, Apple demonstrated its market dominance and

As the Pres. starts the press conference: 2 year yield 3.852% 10 year yield 4.332% S&P up 14.25 points or 0.21% Nasdaq up 47 points or 0.23% Dow +61 points Crude oil $112.76 Gold $4658 Silver $72.55 Bitcoin $69,647 EURUSD 1.1538 USDJPY 159.76 GBPUSD 1.3222 Headlines from the Press conference: The entire country can be

The US stock market is higher today but there’s one major exception: Tesla shares are down 2.6% in the second day of selling. Shares sank 5% on Thursday after the company reported Q1 deliveries of 358K compared to 372K expected. There was a moderate rebound at the open today but that reversed despite a positive

Axios reporter Barak Ravid said Trump on and Netanyahu held a call on Sunday night: Israeli prime minister Netanyahu urged Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire at the moment and expressed concern about the riskes of such a move, an Israeli official said Trump reportedly circled the importance of

A proposed 45-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is currently being discussed but remains one of several options under consideration, with no formal approval from President Trump. A White House official emphasized that the President has not signed off on the plan, and that military operations (“Operation Epic Fury”) are ongoing. Attention now turns

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD often move together, but technically they are telling different stories right now. For the AUDUSD, the pair moved lower at the end of March and approached its rising 100-day moving average (0.6833), but held above that level and rebounded. Last week, price action was choppy, trading above and below the 100-

Trump has extended the deadline to strike Iran’s infrastructure three times and now he says the Tuesday at 8 pm ET deadline is the final one. I’m not sure that statement carries much credibility in markets but time will tell. Trump also said that the war could end ‘very quickly’ if if Iran “does the

The USD is trading lower to kickstart the new trading week on this Easter Monday, although liquidity is thinner with the UK and much of Europe out for the holiday. Even with lighter participation, the market is being driven by weekend headlines, keeping traders cautious and reactive to geopolitical developments. Over the weekend, President Trump

Canada is closed today for the Easter Monday holiday, but U.S. markets remain open and active. Equity futures are pointing to a mixed start, with the Dow modestly lower, the S&P 500 slightly higher, and the NASDAQ leading the way with gains of around 100 points. Meanwhile, U.S. yields have rotated lower after an early

Business activity index 53.9 vs 59.9 prior Employment 45.2 vs 51.8 prior New orders 60.6 vs 58.6 prior– two year high Prices paid 70.7 vs 63.0 prior — highest in three-and-a-half years Supplier deliveries 56.2 vs 53.9 prior Inventories 54.8 vs 56.4 prior Backlog of orders 53.6 vs 55.9 prior New export orders 50.7 vs

Services activity declined, with the PMI at 47.2 (below 50 = contraction), though slightly improved from February at 46.5 New business fell again, but the pace of decline eased to a 5-month low Geopolitical uncertainty (Middle East war) weighed heavily on demand, with clients delaying or pausing projects Input costs surged to a 9-month high,

IRNA reports that Iran has relayed its rejection of a ceasefire plan. The message from Tehran has been consistent, they want a permanent end to the war with security guarantees and compensation, not a temporary ceasefire. They say they’ve been attacked during negotiations before and want everything settled before unblocking Hormuz. “That’s not surprising,” said

For some context, the report from Friday: US March non-farm payrolls +178K vs +60K expected The jobs data was much stronger than anticipated and certainly might have shut the door on talk of rate cuts, if not already because of the US-Iran conflict in the past month. CIBC weighs in by saying that: “Payroll employment

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading higher to start the new week, with the S&P up 0.36% and the NASDAQ up 0.50%. The early gains are helping both indices move back above their 100-hour moving averages, which were broken late Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Those levels—6563.31 for the S&P and

The world is dangerously close to a massive escalation in the Iran war, as Trump has threatened to strike Iran’s infrastructure, including energy, power and bridges. Iran has pledged to attack the energy infrastructure and possibly desalization infrastructure of gulf neighbors in response. Trump set a deadline for 8 pm ET on Tuesday to open

The headline comes from Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson in saying that Tehran has formulated its diplomatic response to the US but will only announce it in due time. We have to wait and see but there is a mixed reception towards all the headlines from the rumour mill in the past 24 hours. For now,

Nasdaq Futures Hold Key Support – Can Bulls Maintain Control Above 23,100? Start with my Nasdaq tecnical analysis video from today Key Takeaways Nasdaq futures remain resilient despite macro noise, holding above critical support A double rejection at resistance earlier set the tone for the current structure The 23,100-23,120 zone acts as the key “line

Tehran has received Pakistan’s proposal, it is being reviewed Will not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decision Iran will not reopen Strait of Hormuz Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ‘temporary ceasefire’ Believes that US lacks readiness for a permanent ceasefire If there’s any question that Iran might want to strike a

Bitcoin futures price prediction today: BTC reclaims post-roll value area, but bullish repair still needs acceptance above $69,320 Prediction Score: +4.0 (The prediction score ranges from -10 (extreme bearish control) through 0 (neutral or indecisive conditions) to +10 (extreme bullish control), combining both direction and confidence into a single scale. Short-term bias: moderately bullishConfidence: medium

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. With it being Easter Monday and all, expect it to be a quieter session in European morning trade today. With no major expiries in play, price action is likely to stay more muted amid a lack of

Trump extends Hormuz deadline to Tuesday while escalating threats to destroy Iran’s core infrastructure, keeping pressure high but leaving a narrow diplomatic window. Summary: Trump sets Tuesday 8pm USET deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz (WSJ reporting, gated)) Deadline effectively extended from Monday Threat escalates to full power grid + bridge destruction Tone extremely aggressive,

Mon: Holiday: Easter Monday, Canadian Services/Composite PMI (Mar), US ISM Services (Mar), Australian Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), Japanese Household Spending (Feb) Tue: EIA STEO (Apr), EZ/UK Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods Orders (Feb), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar) Wed: FOMC Minutes (Mar),

This is not a one-sided war. Iran has shown it can still hit back. Iranian fire brought down a U.S. F-15E, an A-10 was also hit during the rescue effort, and the wider conflict has now wounded 365 U.S. service members and killed 13, according to Pentagon data reported by AP. Iran is also still

Intel stock analysis today: INTC reclaims 48.50 support, shifts the next upside level to 53.50, and heads into April 23 earnings with improving momentum Prediction score: +5.7 Bias: Moderately bullish Outlook: Bullish repair in progress, but not a fully proven breakout yet INTC is an interesting stock. Some think it’s up for some wrong reasons.

If you follow investingLive.com, then you may have seen our earlier crypto call on Ethereum starting to be posivively bullish 4 days ago. This all happens as oil prices are continuing to surge this week s atraders priced in the real possibility of a prolonged crisis with Iran, which would typically impose a ‘risk off’

Prior -92K (revised to -133K) Two-month net revision -7K January was +126K (revised to +160K). December was -141K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected. Prior unemployment rate 4.4%. Unrounded unemployment 4.256%% vs 4.441% prior Participation rate 61.9% vs 62.0% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 7.9% prior Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected

The July 1 deadline for the USMCA six-year review is approaching and almost nobody in trade circles believes it will be met cleanly. A Scotiabank-hosted event in Mexico City this week with CSIS fellow Diego Marroquín Bitar laid out why, and the takeaway is straightforward: expect a drawn-out, painful process that extends well into 2027,

Trump posted this on Truth Social: With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP Trump initially pitched a 4-6 week timeline for this war and then repeatedly said they were ahead of

It’s the first Friday of the month and that means it’s time for non-farm payrolls. It’s a holiday today in much of the world and US stock and bond markets are closed, so that will make for an interesting released. The FX market has been quiet so far today and S&P 500 futures are down

The markets opened up sharply lower after the Trump news conference yesterday, but rebounded with the broader indices closing in positive territory. At session lows: S&P was down -100.38 points NASDAQ index was down -469.63 points They are closing near the highs: S&P index is up 7.36 points or 0.11% at 6582.68 NASDAQ index is

The AUDUSD slipped below its 100-hour moving average at 0.68846 during the Asian session, and early attempts to hold below that level added a more bearish technical tone. However, downside momentum stalled near 0.6858, signaling a lack of follow-through from sellers. As equities recovered, the pair rebounded and moved back above the 100-hour moving average,

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

One of the first questions you might ask when looking at a new strategy is: “What’s the win rate?” Sounds like a perfectly logical question! After all, winning more often must mean the strategy works… right? Further down the road, this thinking leads to chasing high win-rate setups… perhaps tweaking rules to avoid losses, before abandoning strategies after short

Let’s dig into the non-farm payrolls report and the numbers we have so far. What’s expected: Consensus estimate +60K (range -25K to +125K) January -92K Private payrolls consensus estimate +70K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior Participation rate prior 62.0% Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% y/y vs

Goolsbee warns the oil shock risks derailing disinflation, with duration key. Rising gasoline prices could lift inflation expectations, complicating Fed policy just as inflation was expected to ease. ICYMI, Thursday oil price jump: WTI crude oil up $11.25 to $111.38 Summary: Goolsbee flags oil surge as “pretty serious,” with duration key for inflation outlook Warns

Japan’s services sector remains in expansion but is losing a little momentum, with weaker demand growth, rising energy-driven costs, and sharply lower business confidence signalling a more uncertain outlook. Summary: Japan Services PMI eases to 53.4 (prev 53.8), still solid expansion New orders growth slows to a three-month low Cost pressures intensify, driven by energy

China’s services sector remains in expansion but is slowing, with domestic demand supporting growth while weak exports, falling employment and price discounting point to softer underlying momentum. Summary: China Services PMI eases to 52.1 (prev 56.7), still expansionary Growth slows sharply from February’s 33-month high Domestic demand remains the key driver of activity New export

US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate US February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expected Canada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expected Trump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a deal Iran drafts protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz traffic Fed’s Williams: Monetary

It’s a sparse agenda in Asia. Much of the region is out for the Good Friday holiday. But Japan is open. From Japan and China its Services PMIs. Earlier this week: Japan’s manufacturing in expansion but losing momentum China official March PMIs returned to expansion China private manufacturing PMI in expansion for 4th straight month,

Throughout this conflict, there has been a general alignment in markets. It has led to a sortof ‘war-on’ or ‘war-off’ trade where crude oil would rally on signs of escalation and it would mean stocks and bonds would fall, along with US dollar strength. Today is a big departure from that. WTI crude oil is

Energy prices affect inflation and disposable income Higher energy prices hit both sides of the Fed’s mandate So far the war is showing up in gasoline prices but not yet economic data Uncertainty and risks have increased in both directions It takes months or even years for energy to work its way through Markets are

Comments from the Dallas Fed President: Was quite challenging to do most recent round of Fed forecasts Swift war resolution may mean economic impact might be pretty moderate Policy is positioned to respond to data, Fed prepared to make adjustments as needed US has some buffers to impacts from the war Key question is if

US deploys low-cost ‘Lucas’ drone inspired by Iranian design in war. Wall Street Journal report (gated) Summary: US deploys low-cost “Lucas” drone built from reverse-engineered Iranian tech Rapid development marks shift toward cheaper, scalable warfare systems Drones used in strikes on Iranian military and IRGC infrastructure Cost efficiency contrasts sharply with traditional US munitions Highlights

The NZDUSD has erased the gains from Tuesday and Wednesday, after stalling just ahead of a key resistance zone yesterday. That earlier move higher on Wednesday pushed toward the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 20 high to this week’s low, which comes in at 0.57714. The high price reached 0.5776, but buyers

Baker Hughes weekly rig count data shows: Total rigs 548 vs 543 last Oil rigs 411 vs 409 last week Nat Gas 430 vs 427 last week. The price of crude oil is trading at $110.75. That’s up $10.60. The gain today is the highest since March 6. The high price reached $113.97. The high

Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed. Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It’s the only stock market holiday that isn’t also a federal holiday.