Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey in late September, with 2,000 consumer respondents. In summary: 49% of consumers expect the Chinese economy to improve in the next six months, down from 55% in June13% to get worse, +1% 38% said they expect the economy to stay the same, +5% Household spending intentions: 25% of consumers […]

Goldman Sachs with a view on the euro, running ‘tariff’ scenarios for the US election outcome: if the Republican party win the presidency and Congress could lead to higher tariffs 10% U.S. tariff on all imports20% on Chinese productstax cutswould likely push up inflationwould likely lead to Federal Reserve interest rate rises, to US rates

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Key Points: Forecasts $76/bbl average for 2025 on moderate surplusMaintains $70-85/bbl range viewRisks skewed to downside due to high spare capacity, potential trade tariffsBrent spreads may be underpricing near-term physical tightness Geopolitical factors: Limited risk premium despite Israel-Iran tensionsHigh OPEC+ spare capacity providing bufferIran oil production remains undisruptedMid East conflict keeps supply risks in play

Oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.3mn barrelsDistillates -1.7 mn bblsGasoline -1.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

UBS are not overly bearish on EUR/USD. Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management expect that while eurozone economic data is likely top be missed, the see stronger data impacting euro more than weak data will. investor sentiment is very downbeat, and thus better data would be the bigger surprise a series of European Central Bank

The major stock indices had another mixed close with the S&P and Dow industrial average lower while the NASDAQ index rose modestly: Dow industrial average -6.71 points or -0.02% and 42924.89S&P index -2.78 points or -0.05% and 5851.20.NASDAQ index up 33.12 points or 0.18% at 18573.13Russell 2000 down -8.18 points or -0.37% at 2231.52 Texas

The central bank talk has been non-stop today and now Rehn is adding a few dovish lines: Rate cuts are coming, speed and scope to be decided later This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s the time in the cycle when everything that happens in markets is tied back to politics. I looked at Trump trades on Thursday and aside from some pockets, it’s tough to make the argument that’s the major driver, let alone in stocks or bonds. But how about the biggest market in the world? One

I am listening to CNBC and the pundits are mostly spewing How the stock market is overbought. How the stock growth rate over the next 10-years will average 3% per year. How Trump winning will be bullish (PS everyone was bearish in 2016 when he was elected and it lasted about 1/2 a day). How

Centeno says he still expects inflation to tick up This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on the way out as Canadian Prime Minister one way or the other. The only question is: When? Canada will hold an election sometime between now and next October as the Federal government’s term runs out and if Trudeau leads the Liberals into that vote he will be decimated.

Massive stimulus measures implemented by governments to support their economies during the pandemic and following supply chain disruptions have led to increased money supply and rising inflation. Over the past two years, central banks have addressed this problem by tightening monetary policy, mainly through interest rate hikes aimed at cooling demand and bringing prices back

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.1%France CAC flatUK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation could be at target in early 2025The ECB is not behind the curve but risk of cutting rates too late is bigger than cutting too earlyNo reason for rates to stay restrictive in 2025 Lagarde was a bit more dovish today and these comments are as well. I don’t think that puts 50 bps

Financial system held up in face of aggressive central bank rate risesFalling interest rates should ease debt burdens There isn’t anything to move the euro here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The forex markets are showing ups and downs after the USD moved higher yesterday helped by rising interest rates . Currently rates are of modestly higher the front end and down modestly near the end of the yield curve. US stocks are lower as geopolitical risks of tensions between Iran and Israel increase. Oil is

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market heatmap reveals a day of mixed movement, with the technology sector facing notable challenges while financials show resilience. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors and consumer electronics, are seeing significant drops, whereas some pockets in finance and energy demonstrate stability. 📉 Tech Sector: Under Pressure The semiconductor space is experiencing

The price of crude oil futures are trading higher by $1.73 or 2.47% at $71.78. The move to the upside has the price testing its 200-hour moving average at $71.76. A move above is needed to increase the bullish bias with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 7 high at $72.10

Nagel spoke about the upcoming strategic review and said the ECB needs to improve how policy intentions are communicated but that a Fed-style dot plot system is not desirable. I tend to agree with him on this, the dot plot has eroded Fed credibility rather than enhancing it. I think Fed forecasts are useful but

1400 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on “Fintech” before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. We had a series of Fed speakers on Monday and into Asia morning on Tuesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Oct; The 10 year

“We are not unhappy with what we have seen,” on inflation.Hopes inflation can get back to target sooner than projectedInflation numbers are relatively reassuringWe “absolutely confident” in hitting inflation target sustainably in the course of 2025 but not sure whenWe have to be very sharp in evaluating services inflationEuropean consumers don’t consumer as much as

Aventus, a leading provider of enterprise blockchain solutions and parachain on Polkadot, today confirms the launch of Aventus 2.0, an evolution of the Aventus Network aimed at establishing a stronger foundation for long-term growth and value capture. The update introduces several strategic initiatives designed to enhance network performance and stakeholder utility, including increasing transaction volume

Earlier today I wrote: AUDUSD: The 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low comes in at 0.6645 and the low reached 0.6650 at the start of the new trading day today. The bounce higher has moved to a swing area between 0.6685 to 0.6695. At the 0.6695 level is also the key

China stimulus measures announced by the PBOC are not sufficient to lift growth in a substantially material way Goldman Sachs and others have been highlighting this as well. There are certainly some things for the stock market but it’s tough to disconnect the stock market from the real economy, especially with the risk of Trump

The dollar is keeping more mixed with light changes being observed overall. There’s not much appetite or follow through, as traders are keeping a watchful eye on the bond market for anything. USD/JPY is one to pay attention to as such but is running up against a key resistance region as outlined here. Besides that,

Global growth 3.2% vs 3.2% in July forecast US growth seen at 2.3% for 2024 vs 2.6% in JulyUS 2025 growth seen at 2.2% for 2025 vs 1.9% in July China growth at 4.8% for 2024 vs 5.0% in JulyEuro Zone growth at 0.8% for 2024 vs 0.9% in July, 1.2% for 2025 vs 1.5%

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Treasury yields are still marginally higher after hitting the highest since late July. US 10s are up 1 basis point to 4.19% now and the stock market doesn’t like it or yesterday’s rise. Breadth was terrible in equities yesterday as Nvidia carried the market and the Russell 2000 fell 1.5% S&P 500 futures are down

The EURUSD sellers are making a play in the US session with the price moving below the low from last week at 1.08103. The price has moved to a low of 1.0800, bounced back to 1.08148 but is back down to 1.0806. Buyers and seller battle. If the sellers play to the downside is for

That comment in quote marks is via Mizuho in their weekly outlook. “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150.” That is pertinent for the session here today for sure, with USD/JPY having gained mover than 150 points since its Asia time low on Monday. Also pertinent from the same analysts is this: Buoyancy

In the above video, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs EURUSD: The EURUSD held below the 200-day MA and 61.8% of the move up from the June low near 1.0874 yesterday (bearish). The price low yesterday and today is pushing toward the low from last week at 1.0810. Move below

Rates cut was appropriate and others will followIt’s possible inflation is coming down faster than expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Decentraland, the first decentralized virtual social world, launched a powerful new desktop client today, signaling a new era for experiencing spatial environments. This beta release enhances performance, delivers a more immersive environment, and introduces new engaging features, setting the stage for future innovations and expanded creator tools. This milestone marks the shift away from a

Stocks dribble lower in European morning tradeMajor currencies not doing much so far on the sessionBonds under the spotlight with little else to focus onEuropean equities mostly a touch softer at the open todayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European tradingFX option expiries for 22 October 10am New York cutBOE

SuiHub Dubai is the first in a global series of hubs designed to support blockchain developers and entrepreneurs.The center is located in Expo City Dubai, a key tech hub in the region, to foster collaboration and innovation.Ghaf Studios and Sui aim to provide resources and funding to local Web3 founders and builders as part of

The USDCAD has been racing to the upside over the last few weeks with the low price at 1.3472 back on October 2. The high price yesterday reached 1.38475 on October 21. That’s a big move in a relatively short amount of time. The price also reached to a new high going back to August

Earlier today in a post I summarized the technical for the USDCHF by writing: USDCHF: The USDCHF remains above the 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 0.86318. Yesterday support buyers came in against the level increasing its importance going forward. Stay above is bullish. Move below and I would expect some

A nonpartisan report compared Harris and Trump policies. In brief: reserve fund for Social Security would run empty by 2031 under Trumpruns empty in 2034 under Harris”Social Security is nine years from insolvency, and neither campaign has a plan to solve it” “But President Trump’s plans would make it much, much worse.” The report is

Risks to growth in the UK are two-wayWouldn’t put too much weight on the latest fall in UK CPI as it may be driven by volatile componentsSigns of inflation persistence are going in the right direction but it’s a question of speed Greene wrote yesterday about a cautious and gradual approach to easing. This article

Services index +3 vs -1 last month Manufacturing shipments -8 vs -18 last month Other details: Employment -17 vs -22 last monthWages 16 vs 15 last monthPrices paid 2.70 vs 3.36 last monthPrices received 1.71 vs 1.57 last monthNew orders -17 vs -23 last monthBacklog of orders -14 vs -16 last monthCapacity utilization -11 vs

Torsten Slok is chief economist at Apollo Management. Voicing what many are seeing is super-obvious but nevertheless ignored in the thirst-trap of seeking lower rates: bottom line is that the expansion continuesAtlanta Fed currently estimates third-quarter (3Q) GDP growth of 3.4%US remaining on a no landing trajectory — economy keeps growing and inflation reignitescontinued support

In most cases, yields will tend to trend lower in the early stages of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle. But this isn’t like those cases, at least for the time being. There is something driving yields back higher and that is catching the market attention again since the start of the month. Is it the

It was a tough one for the bond bulls on Monday as the 10-year ratcheted above the 200-day moving average for the first time since July. I wrote about bonds earlier in the day and the idea that they were pricing out a recession but it’s tough to argue that’s still the trade as the

Aoki is Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary: No comment on FX moves Hayashi adds: yen moves have positive and negative aspects – These are very mild comments. USD/JPY is circa 150.75 and barely off its session high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.8%Producer prices -0.9% y/y vs +0.2% priorRaw materials price index -3.1% vs -3.1% priorRaw materials price index -8.8% y/y This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold rallied to a fresh high yesterday then quickly fell $25 on profit taking. It steadied in Asia and began the climb again and has just broken to a fresh record. I fear there is some pre-election buying of gold that could unwind after the decision, particularly if Congress is split (which should somewhat restrain

The US major indices are all lower at the open with the NASDAQ leading the way to the downside: a snapshot of market currently shows: Dow industrial average down -86 72 points or -0.20% at 42844.88S&P index down -26.09 points or -0.45% at 5827.89NASDAQ index down -90.43 points are -0.49% at 18449.58 the small-cap Russell

As the election approaches, there is concerns about the deficit. Fed’s Kashkari is saying that Rising budget deficit would on the margin mean interest rates would be higher. How all the dust settles is still up in the air as much may also depend on the split in the House and the Senate. Nevertheless, deficits

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

European indices are also all in negative territory, with the DAX also down by 0.1% after a decent open earlier. Other major indices in the region are down some 0.6% to 0.8% with the negative mood also reflected in US futures. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.6% currently. In the

Today we have another slow day on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. We will get the Canadian PPI and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Both of them aren’t market moving releases and they won’t change anything in terms of market pricing. Economic data: 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

A bit of a different take on the ECB rate cut. In a recent note, PIMCO highlighted that while the European macroeconomic outlook is softer than anticipated, risk management continues to drive central bank decisions. The analysts suggested that any unexpected inflationary pressures could lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to slow the pace of

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Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin H. Nasser says the firm is bullish on China’s oil consumption Citing government stimulus measuresjet fuel demand is a bright spotsees global oil demand at more than 100 million barrels per day through 2050 Bloomberg carried his comments, but also poured some cold water on them: other market commentators

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid spoke earlier: Fed’s Schmid calls for cautious, gradual, deliberate approach to rate cuts More now: Very strong commitment at the Fed for 2% inflationFed doesn’t focus too much on anticipated shocksExpect modest cuts in upcoming quartersSays his personal opinion is that crypto is a risk asset,

The GBPUSD is trading near its lows for the day and looks to test: Low from last week at 1.29729100-day MA at 1.296061.8% retracement at 1.2958 As the day comes to a close, those levels will be key targets in the new trading day. If broken – and stays broken – it opens the door

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on TuesdayEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaks twice on Tuesday, Lane *2 alsoBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking Tuesday, Greene and Breeden alsoJapan government Aoki says no comment on FX movesChina’s $120bn effort to prop up the yuanICYMI – Saudi Aramco CEO is bullish on

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.3% US futures are down around 0.2% after a more mixed showing yesterday and that’s weighing slightly on the mood today. The bond market is one to watch out for in case of anything but later in the week, we’ll have earnings from Tesla and Amazon to set the

BOJ Executive Director Kato says want to extremely thoroughly gauge US economy, US elections, Fed policy we are not targeting fx levels but are carefully looking at upside risks from rising import prices Once again, meek comments. I posted on the earlier ones: USD/JPY above 150.90 again after meek comments from Japan This article was

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the key near-term level there should limit any

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

The European Central Bank appear on track for another 25bp rate cut at their next meeting on December 12. They seem to be behind the curve. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 1400/1000 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in conversation with Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg1500/1100 European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane takes part in

If anything, the chart shows that the mood music is more pensive as investors are likely waiting on more action by Beijing. That especially a follow through on the fiscal side of things. The CSI 300 index is up 0.5% today but it’s not really noticeable from the charts. It seems to be that investors

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% SAP announced a better outlook at its earnings report after the close yesterday and that’s helping to lift the DAX a little. Besides that, the overall mood is a little on the softer side with US futures also keeping lower. S&P

I gave an alert for comments today: Eyes and ears open today – “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150” What we got was meek indeed, barely anything: Japan government Aoki says no comment on FX moves Will there be anything else? USD/JPY is nearly at 151.00 and I’m surprised we’ve heard so

The major US stock indices are closing with mixed results. The Dow industrial average was the biggest loser with a decline of -0.80%. The NASDAQ index rose by 0.27% and the S&P was in between with a decline of -0.18%. Looking at the losers in the Dow, there were 12 of the 30 with declines

This is something I’ve highlighted with each and every UK labour market report, as seen with the latest one here. And it is something that has persisted for a year already now. In case you missed some of the posts about that: Heads up: UK labour market data later this month will have a similar

Fundamental Overview In recent days, gold has been making new highs despite the lack of bullish catalysts. Moreover, the latest leg higher diverged with real yields which climbed to new highs since last week. This divergence could point to a pullback in gold ahead of the Flash US PMIs on Thursday, and if we get

New Zealand trade data not moving NZ dollar upon release, around 0.6030 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s FX regulator is the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). They’ve published data for year-to-date sales of foreign currency by commercial banks 121.3bn net FX sold January – September SAFE adds: yuan exchange is basiclly stable at reasonable and balanced levels FX mkt shows relatively strong resilience This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

US Social Security to run dry in 2031 under Trump and 2034 under HarrisMixed bag for the major US indices. Nasdaq up, but S&P and Dow downUS 10-year yields rise above the 200-day moving averageCrude oil futures settle at $70.56Even more from Kashkari: Excess savings have been spent downCiti upgrades 0 to 3-month-old forecast for

I posted earlier to expect verbal intervention today: Eyes and ears open today – “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150” Its just after 10am in Tokyo. Maybe officials aren’t out of bed yet. Or they’ve given up 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

10-year Treasury yields have now climbed back up to 4.20% and looking to push past its own 200-day moving average. Is it the economy trade? The inflation trade? Or perhaps the election trade? I’m quite sympathetic to the final reasoning to be honest. And that sort of ties in with inflation, should Trump come out

In a recent note, Franklin Templeton commented on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 25 basis point rate cut, attributing the move to weak economic data and inflation falling below the 2% target. As sluggish growth persists across Europe, the firm expects the ECB to continue its rate-cutting cycle, potentially dropping rates below 2% by mid-2025.

The EURUSD is testing the low price from last Thursday at 1.08103. The low price just reached 1.08104. A break below the level will have traders looking toward the low price going back to August 1. That level comes in at 1.0777. Earlier today, the price tested the 200-day moving average in the early Asian

Excess consumer savings have been spent down.Lower credit score borrowers delinquencies are climbing.On average consumers seem like they are doing fine.Monetary policies role in bringing down inflation was probably mainly in anchoring inflation expectations, not on reducing demand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed speakers coming up in the US afternoon/evening: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas CityFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a moderated question-and-answer session at the 2024 WSJ

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a moderated question-and-answer session at the 2024 WSJ Tech Live: Says Fed will continue to adjust policy50 bps cut was meant to right-size policy, expect additional cuts going forwardRecent fed rate cut a ‘close call’I came down strongly in favor of 50 bps cut50

The Bank of England appear to be on track for further rate cuts. The times below are GBP/US Eastern time format: 1315/0915 Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene speaks at Atlantic Council 1325/0925 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at financial regulation event hosted in New York by Bloomberg 1915/1515 Bank of England

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid Calls for cautious, gradual, deliberate approach to rate cutsSays he prefers to avoid outsized rate cuts’reasonably confident’ inflation heading in right directionWe are seeing a normalization of labor market, not a deteriorationCurrent policy is restrictive, but not very restrictiveInterest rates will settle well above levels seen

UBS on the US election result: The election outcome may not be known for several weeks after the ballot closes on 5 November. The prospect of recounts and legal contests means that the winner might not be known before 11 December, the deadline for states to declare their electoral college votes. And even that date

Reuters report, citing unnamed sources on Fidelity International (investment management services including mutual funds, pension management and fund platforms) is cutting around 500 jobs in China: largest downsizing in recent yearscuts seem mainly in Dalian tech/operations centre This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Monday the People’s Bank of China lowered rates: China cuts 1 and 5 year rates by 25bp each, as expected China’s central bank lowered the reference rates for personal and business mortgages, a move that was widely anticipated. On the positive side, this highlights the government’s commitment to providing substantial economic support. However, a

Citi has upgraded its: 0 to 3 month forecast for gold to $2800 from $2700. Sets 6-12 month target to $3000 an ounce.Increases 6– 12 month target for silver from $38 an ounce to $40 an ounce Gold is currently trading near unchanged at $2720.60 Looking at the daily chart below, the price of gold

Goldman Sachs’ latest report (David Kostin, Goldman’s chief US equity strategist) on the S&P 500, in brief:Predict a 3% annualized return for the S&P 500 index over the next decade, real increase of 1%significantly lower than the index’s 13% annualized total return over the past ten yearsConsensus is around 6%, so GS is only half

More from Fed’s Kashkari: It was not the labor market that caused inflationVery few transactions happened on crypto, unless it’s drugs or illegal activityImmigration policy will affect our reading of the labor market Tariffs shouldn’t be themselves leading to ongoing inflation probably a one-time change in price levelDefinitely want to avoid a recesion.Saw signs of

Crude oil futures are settling at $70.56. That’s up $1.34 or 1.94% on the day. The low for the day reached $68.50. The high for the day reached $70.36. Looking at the daily chart, support comes and $66.76 – $67.69. Resistance between $71.44 and $72.43. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar keeps steadier so far on the sessionGold remains undaunted as the run higher continuesWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Šimkus says lower rates possible if disinflation gets entrenchedECB’s Šimkus: Policy will clearly become less restrictive from hereECB’s Kažimír says all options are on the table for December meetingGermany September PPI -0.5% vs -0.2%

Treasury yields are creeping above the top of the recent range in an unsettling move today. That’s weighed on stock futures, which are down 0.2%, and helped to lift USD/JPY by 40 pips. The question remains: How much of this is pricing out a recession and how much of it is pricing in inflation? I’m

Tech and energy sectors lead gains as semiconductors stumble Today’s US stock market displayed a mixed bag of performances, with notable strength emerging in technology and energy. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector continued to experience turbulence. 📈 Sector Overview Technology: The technology sector showed resilience with Microsoft (MSFT) slightly down by 0.27%, while Nvidia (NVDA) rose

Chinese markets are rallying as the country’s economy demonstrates signs of improvement. While the latest data offers some optimism, significant hurdles persist. Octa Broker analyses the situation and discusses the potential implications for the People’s Bank of China’s upcoming interest rate decision. China has just released a slew of macroeconomic statistics. Although it generally looks

$DOG of Bitcoin announces the release of its limited-edition $DOG Plushie, which launched on October 19, 2024, an occasion now being called “$DOGTOBER 19.” These collectible plush toys provide fans and newcomers with a tangible connection to the $DOG ecosystem, bridging the digital world of cryptocurrency with a physical collectible designed for both enjoyment and

The USDCAD is pushing to the upside (with the broader USD advances today) and in the process is stretching toward the high from last week at 1.3837. A move above that level would have traders targeting a swing area off the daily chart point back to 2022 between 1.3859 and 1.3898. Move above that level

The German Dax closed at record highs on Monday, Thursday and Friday last week, moving above the high close going back to September 27. Today, however, the index fell by around 1% leading the way lower for the major European indices. A snapshot of the Europe closes fo the day are showing: German Dax, -1.02%France’s

The USD is moving higher. Looking at the dollar index (DXY) the price is testing the 200 day MA at 103.79. The price moved above that level on Friday reaching a high of 103.88, before failing and rotating lower. The high has just extended to 103.803. Get and stay above to 200 day MA, and

The major US indices moved higher last week and in doing so extended they went straight 26 consecutive weeks. That’s the longest streak in 2024. To start the new trading week, stock are marginally lower with declines around -0.10% in the three major indices: Dow industrial average -54 points or -0.13% at 43220S&P index -5.4

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The US dollar is at the best levels of the day across the board as US 10-year yields extend their gain to 8 bps and 4.15%, which is also the highest since late July. USD/JPY is approaching last week’s high and a break of it would be the best level since late July. This article

The USD continues to move higher today, and the NZDUSD is not missing out on the run higher. A chief fundamental catalysts is the the 10-year note yield which is up 10.5 basis points on the day and now up around 55 basis points since the Fed cut. The 2-year yield is up 45 basis

Its another day of a multitude of Federal Reserve speakers. I expect all of these four to give indications of the policy views. I posted this earlier, thoughts of a November and/or December pause are not going away: Will the Federal Reserve pause in November and (or) December – Citi with the heads up Times

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it could play a role in limiting any

The AUDUSD traded above and below the 100-day MA last week at 0.9695. The price moved above the MA on Thursday/Friday and closed above that MA tilting the bias in the buyers favor. However, today, the price moved below the MA in the European session and stayed below in the US session. What I like

Domestic sight deposits CHF 454.1 bn vs CHF 459.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell again in the past week, continuing to keep within levels seen in the last few months after a slight rise towards the end of September. Here’s a look at the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.2%Six-month decline accelerates to 2.6%, worse than previous 2.2% fall This index isn’t a market mover but it’s a decent 10,000 ft view on the economy and shows why the Fed is in an easing cycle. “Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September

Cannot predict outcome of December’s meetingRisks to economic growth are skewed to the downsideServices inflation remains highBut disinflation trend is on a stable track Nothing that hasn’t already been said since the policy decision last week. But as things stand, traders have fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut for December with ~118 bps

December meeting is wide openWill be in a strong position to ease further if accelerated pace of disinflation continuesIncreasingly confident that disinflation path is on solid footingBut still need more evidence, especially on services inflation Well, unless the economy miraculously bounces back in the final quarter of the year, it will be tough for the

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The ranges for the day aren’t overly interesting but the dollar is seen holding a slight edge in European morning trade. It comes as Treasury yields are pushing higher as well, allowing for some light action on the session. USD/JPY is now marked up by 0.3% to 149.95 from a low of 149.10 in Asia

This is via eFX: *** Synopsis: MUFG discusses the increasing likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) implementing another rate hike before the end of the year, driven by recent economic indicators and financial market performance. Key Points: • Yen Weakness and USD/JPY Levels: The Japanese yen has given back nearly 50% of the gains

Comments from Logan: Fed will need to be nimble with mon pol choicesEconomy is strong and stableSees downside risk to job market, ongoing risks to inflation goalBalance sheet cuts and rate cuts working in same directionLiquidity still abundant in money marketsOver time wants ‘negligible’ balances in reverse repo facilityFed could change reverse repo rate if

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps ECB: 30 bps (81% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoE: 44 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoC: 81 bps (99%

Business contacts are optimistic, aware of risksI pay a lot of attention to financial conditions indexes Financial conditions are easing in stocks but tightening in bonds but when the Fed says ‘financial conditions’, it’s 90% weighted to bonds. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The BOE’s Megan Greene wrote a column in the FT. UK consumption recovery lags behind other developed economiesUK savings rate high at 10% vs 5% in the USThree factors damping UK consumption: Precautionary savings due to cost of living crisisRestrictive monetary policyInterest rate changes impacting household incomesDiscretionary spending remains below pre-pandemic levelsHigher interest rates incentivize

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: At midday Sydney time, which is 0100 GMT and 2100 US Eastern time I haven’t got a topic for the chat. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

To start the new trading week, the buyers are holding onto control, but for the EURCHF, the sellers are holding the stronger hand (and in control). USDCHF: Last week, the USDCHF moved above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the September low at 0.86318. Midweek, the price tested that

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% It’s all to play for in the new week with the DAX in particular hoping to keep at fresh record highs. US futures are more muted today, keeping relatively flattish currently. Key earnings releases are back on the cards with Tesla, Boeing, and Amazon to watch out for

Major currencies are more muted in general to start the day, with only the yen sitting slightly higher. USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 149.23 as the pair starts to show some signs of exhaustion after testing waters above 150.00 last week. Price action is now sitting under both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at

The week starts quietly on Monday with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Richmond manufacturing index, offering some early insights into the country’s industrial performance. Wednesday’s focus will be on Canada, where the BoC is set to announce its monetary policy decision. In the U.S.,

I posted this on gold a little earlier: UBS like gold higher, point to history indicating up to a further 10% rise UBS riding the trend. Gold has just hit a fresh record high: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the new trading week begins, the USD buyers are exerting their control. EURUSD: The EURUSD sellers (USD buyers) are moving away from the 100 hour MA at 1.08623, the 200 day MA at 1.0871, the 61.8% of the move up from the end of June low at 1.08746. The current prices trading at 1.08539.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and we’re on a six-week winning streak. In that time, the index has gained 8.45% despite the election uncertainty. If you read Friday’s Goldman Sachs note, then that is as good as it will get for a long time. “We estimate the S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal

People’s Bank of China sets Loan Prime Rates (LPR), a rate cut as expected 1 year to 3.10% from 3.35% 5 year to 3.6% from 3.85% —- Preview of this was here: Heads up for a rate cut from China expected on Monday, October 21, 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, the PBoC announced new easing measures which included further rate cuts and stock buyback funding. Moreover, we got some positive economic data with Retail Sales and Industrial Production beating expectations by a big margin. These catalysts provided support for copper which erased most of last week’s losses. Copper Technical Analysis –

Today marks the official launch of KERORO, a new meme coin built on the Solana blockchain, which has debuted with a market cap of $4.5 million. Positioned within the meme coin market, KERORO draws on Solana’s high-speed, low-cost transaction capabilities to establish itself as a community-driven project. KERORO’s Vision and Mission KERORO, inspired by the

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

He is saying that interest rates could be lowered to below the “natural level” in the latest cycle, that is if disinflation becomes more entrenched in the euro area. I reckon that goes without saying but we’re not quite pushing the boundaries of that narrative for now at least. This article was written by Justin

The push higher on Friday reaffirms the continued positive momentum in gold, one that has been quite unrelenting in 2024. That has also helped to turn a recovery in silver in the last two months, with the precious metal itself rising to $34 today. As for gold, it is looking to extend to fresh record

This week is pretty empty on the data front and today we have absolutely nothing on the calendar. Kind of a synthetic Sunday if you will. We will just hear from some Fed speakers but it’s unlikely that they will tell us something new. Central bank speakers: 12:55 GMT/08:55 ET – Fed’s Logan (neutral –

In a note last week from Standard Chartered analysts at the bank said oil market sentiment, especially among speculative traders, is highly bearish, similar to levels seen in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Concerns centre on expectations of macroeconomic hard landings, weak oil demand, fears of oversupply in 2025 Stan Chart say that the

Prior +0.2%PPI -1.4% vs -1.0% y/y expectedPrior -0.8% A fall in energy prices was the main drag as if you exclude that, producer prices were seen down just 0.1% on the month. Looking at the details, there were declines for prices for intermediate goods (-0.2%) while capital goods and durable consumer goods were unchanged. Meanwhile,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, a sneak peek early look at PCE inflation forecasts. Timiraos adds: Economists who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE think core inflation for the Fed’s preferred gauge will be around 0.26% in September, a touch below the Sept CPI (which was 0.31%) but the highest

UBS raised its 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts for China, citing faster-than-expected GDP growth in 3Q, and recent government policy support announcements Forecasts now: GDP growth for 4Q to rise to 6.5% q/qGDP growth for 4Q to rise to remain at 4.6% y/yFull-year 2024 real GDP growth raised to 4.8% (prior forecast 4.6%)2025 real

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s a more pensive start overall with US futures also keeping little changed. That is not giving traders much to work with with changes in FX also relatively light currently. The DAX is down slightly but still within touching distance of

South Korea 1 – 20 October trade data: Exports -2.9% y/y semiconductor exports +36.1%cars -3.3%to China + 1.2%to the United States -2.6% to the European Union -8.9% Import -10.1% y/y Info via Reuters. – While exports declined y/y in October this comes after the September data showed exports rose for the 12th month in a

New Zealand credit card spending for September 2024 -3.2% y/y prior -3.1% -0.4% m/m prior -0.4% NZD/USD is not a lot changed in a small range only for the session so far. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The next European Central Bank monetary policy meeting is on December 12. TD are expecting another rate cut (the ECB cut by 25bp last week). TD cites: ECB officials (members of the Bank’s rate setting committee, the Governing Council) have opened up the door sidely to cutsthe data-dependent ‘one meeting at a time’ messaging is

Fuji News Network (FNN) says Japan’s LDP is unlikely to win a governing majority in Japan’s 27 October election. Japan Times does not, though, that PM Ishiba only has a low support rate. The LDP and its coalition partner are likely to remain in power. USD/JPY has lost some ground today in a small range

UBS raised its 2024 forecast for China’s full-year real GDP growth to 4.8% (from 4.6%)MUFG sees a growing case for the BoJ to raise rates again before year-endJapan election – LDP likely to remain in government with support of coalition partnerMonday will bring Federal Reserve speakers including Logan, Kashkari, Schmidt, DalyNew Zealand credit card spending

Citi comments reported by Bloomberg (gated) flah the possibility of no more rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the rest of this year Citigroup Inc.’s Akshay Singal, global head of short-term interest-rate trading, told Bloomberg TV that the Fed is likely to cut rates by just 25 basis points, or even

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts oil prices to US$25 / barrel … read on: IF the world reaches net zero emissions mid-century targets in a way that limits global warmingAND its by 2050 I don’t think oil markets, when they open, will be bothered paying too much attention to this. So, if you hear

Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and European Central Bank Governing Council policymaker. He spoke in an interview with French radio on Saturday, flagging falling inflation: and further rate cuts ahead: we’re on a good way to defeat inflationthis is actually good newsmay be some temporary rebounds in coming months, but that’s a

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser spoke in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: RBA dep Gov Hauser says surprised employment growth has been so strong More from RBA’s Hauser – monetary policy is ready to respond in either direction Hauser’s comments once again pointed to an

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: slightly surprised employment growth has been so stronglabour participation rate is strikingly highRBA is data dependent but not data obsessedwill take into account Q3 CPI, other data, to form a view on policy

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: acutely conscious that the outlook is uncertainpolicy is ready to respond in either directionwe are alert and ready to act Earlier: RBA dep Gov Hauser says surprised employment growth has been so strong

UBS Global Wealth Management like both oil and gold, citing market uncertainty and the Fed easing. UBS point ut that markets are trimming expectations of further Fed easings , but nevertheless see more cuts ahead. Analysts highlight gold historically rising by up to 10% following the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut. UBS

A rate cut from the People’s Bank of China is expected (2115 US Eastern time). Preview: Heads up for a rate cut from China expected on Monday, October 21, 2024 And, more on the agenda for the week ahead: Weekly Market Outlook (21-25 October)Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include PBoC LPR, BoC, EZ & UK PMIThis

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0861USD/JPY 149.55USD/CHF 0.8650USD/CAD 1.3804AUD/USD 0.6708NZD/USD 0.6076 This article was written by

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC LPR.Tuesday: Canada PPI.Wednesday: BoC Policy Decision.Thursday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, US Jobless Claims.Friday: PBoC MLF, Tokyo CPI, German IFO, Canada Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders. Monday The PBoC is expected to cut the LPR rates by 20 bps bringing the 1-year rate to 3.15% and the 5-year rate to 3.65%. This

aCrude Oil Futures Weekly Forecast: Bears in Control, Watching Key Support Levels 📉 Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) are showing clear signs of bearish momentum, with prices falling sharply in recent weeks. This is reflected in the weekly chart, where the market has consistently respected a long-term descending resistance line (marked in red as the bottom

China sets loan prime rate (LPRs) on Monday, October 21, 2024. Last month the PBoC cut the 7-day reverse repo rate, and the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate: PBOC 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), rate cut to 2% (2.3% previously) and a matching cut to LPRs is expected tomorrow. Indeed, on Friday PBoC Governor Pan

Mon: PBoC LPRTue: NBH Announcement, IMF World Economic OutlookWed: BoC AnnouncementThu: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Oct)Fri: PBoC MLF (TBC), CBR Announcement, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct), German Ifo (Oct), US Durable Goods (Sep), US University of Michigan Final (Oct) PBoC LPR (Mon): PBoC will announce the latest Loan Prime Rates next week in which Chinese banks are

Magazine covers are notorious signs of a top. The meme stocks are flying once again. Do we ride this to 85 at least? I don’t think we’re necessarily in the final inning but I suspect the market will need a red sweep to keep the party going. This article was written by Adam Button at

The earnings season heats up a bit next week with Tesla, Boeing, AT&T, and Coca-Cola leading the way. Monday After Close: SAP (SAP)Nucor (NUE)Logitech (LOGI)Zions Bancorporation (ZION) Tuesday Before Open: Verizon (VZ)General Motors (GM)3M (MMM)RTX (RTX)Freeport McMoRan (FCX)GE Aerospace (GE)Lockheed Martin (LMT)Sherwin-Williams (SHW) After Close: Enphase Energy (ENPH)Baker Hughes (BKR)Seagate Technology (STX)Texas Instruments (TXN) Wednesday

US Sept housing starts 1.354m vs 1.350m expectedBostic: Neutral policy rate is in the 3-3.50% rangeFed’s Bostic: We may see a lull in activity and spending around the electionBaker Hughes US oil rig count +1Fed’s Waller does not comment on monetary policy or the economic outlookBiden: Understands how and when Isreal will respond to Iran

The major indices are closing higher for the day with the Nasdaq leading the way. The Dow and the S&P are also higher. The small cap Russell 2000 is closing lower but is higher on the week. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average rose 36.86 points or 0.09% at 43275.91S&P rose 23.20 points

There are some small wins for seller in the USDJPY from a technical perspective: The price stalled ahead of a topside trend line yesterday on the hourly chart (see chart above) . The inability to get to the level is a small negative.The price fell below an upward-sloping trend line on the hourly chart above

I just posted about the signs of euphoria that are building in markets. And why wouldn’t they be, the market has rallied six weeks in a row. Here is a reminder from two years ago what the other side of that trade looks like. In October 2022, the gilt market blew up and that led

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectationsGold Technical Analysis – Yet another all-time highUSD/JPY lower on the day but buyers stay in control for nowJapan’s largest union group Rengo targets wage hikes of at least 5% for next yearBOJ governor Ueda remarks that Japanese economy is recovering moderatelyUK September retail sales +0.3% vs -0.3% m/m

Oil rigs +1Natural gas rigs -2 The economic momentum and optimism has left the oil market behind. It’s 2025 budget-setting season right now though and I’d imagine capital discipline will be the theme next year so that may start to help. The worries are OPEC and China though. WTI was last down $1 to $69.71.

The EURUSD has been trending to the downside recently, and in the process has extended toward August low levels. My most recent technical videos on the pair, have been focused on the 4-hour chart as the market trended lower. If you watch the kickstart video from earlier today I also spoke to the 200-day moving

“Premature” is an interesting choice of words. That said, I certainly can’t see it happening in my lifetime. I suspect we’ll see a breakup of the euro before a BRICS currency. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy recovering moderately but some weak moves seenFinancial system remains stable as a wholeMust be vigilant to market, FX moves and impact on economy, prices It’s an odd one as Uchida himself could just easily parroted the above comments. As for Ueda, he is in China amid a trilateral meeting as noted here two

OriginTrail, the ecosystem striving for a safe internet in the age of AI with its decentralized knowledge graph, was named the best project at the prestigious MIT Decentralized AI Summit. Held at the MIT Media Lab, the summit brought together top innovators, researchers, and industry leaders to explore the future of decentralized AI technologies. The

The data is below, but note that Q2 GDP was revised to +0.5% q/q instead of 0.7% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 1.356mStarts -0.5% vs +9.6% priorBuilding permits 1.428m vs 1.460m expectedPermits -2.9% vs +4.9% priorFull report US housing had been on the comeback trail but that may be in jeopardy as 30-year rates have risen 50 basis points from the September low. Starts are down 0.7% y/y. This article was written by Adam Button

The USDCHF this week extended above a swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619, and then the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the September low at 0.86318. Yesterday there was a corrective move that took the price briefly below the 38.2% retracement, but only by a few pips before the

Not in a rush to get to neutralWill be patientWe needed to move policy rate because risks had shifted This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Pres Biden is out saying: He has an understanding of how and when Israel is going to respond to the missile attacks by Iran but declines to give detailsHe also says that there’s the possibility of working for a cease-fire in Lebanon, it’s going to be harder in Gaza The news does not sound very

Shares of Apple are trading at $235 or up $2.85 or 1.22%. Closing this level would suppress the all-time high close level of $234.82 reached on July 16. Wedbush was out with a report today saying Apple’s iPhone 16 sales in China are forecasted to see a significant rebound over the next year. The analysts

The EURUSD is trading higher and is approaching key resistance near 1.0871 to open 08746. Within that area is the 100 hour moving average at 1.087161.8% retracement of 1.08746200 day moving average at 1.0872 The high price yesterday reached 1.0873. The area is key for both buyers and sellers. A move above, gives the buyers

Slight delay in the release by the source. The current account surplus narrowed in August with surpluses recorded for goods (€32 billion) and services (€19 billion) while deficits were recorded for secondary income (€15 billion) and primary income (€4 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD buyers remain in control in what has been an up-and-down trading week that did see the pair move to the highest level since August 6th. At the price high this week, the USDCAD moved into a swing area going back to the end of July early August between 1.38337 and 1.38475. Sellers leaned

The NZDUSD price action this week has been lower, but there also has seen a lot of ups and downs and consolidation after the sharp move lower from the end of September high at 0.6377 to the low this week at 0.6038 (12 days from top to the bottom) Technically, the NZDUSD has been behaving

Feds Waler is speaking but does not comment on monetary policy were economic outlook in his prepared remarks on decentralized finance. There may be a Q&A after his speech that could provide some commentary on each. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX +0.4%France CAC +0.4%UK FTSE 100 -0.3%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% It was a nice finish for everyone outside of the UK, what a baske case that’s been. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese CPI Overall 2.5% y/y expected 2.5%, prior 3.0% Core CPI (excluding fresh food) 2.4% y/y expected 2.3%, prior 2.8% Core-core 2.1% y/y expected 2.0%, prior 1.9%excluding fresh food and energy, this is the closest to US core inflation Two of three lower than in August. All three are at or above the Bank of

Just a bit of a geopolitical update as it looks like North Korea is now getting involved with the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is being reported that North Korean troops have been shipped to Russian bases in the far east for training and adjustment. Following which, they will likely be subsequently “deployed for

Bostic delivered a lecture at a high school on “Economic Education and the Fed 101” in Mississippi. The comments didn’t speak to the outlook. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I believe that the most-underrated source of information on the economy is from corporate conference calls, particularly those that are most-sensitive to macro. I went through the calls of 16 companies that reported this week and found the comments about macro health, consumer demand and the outlook. Here are the highlights. Citi: The US consumer

Chinese state media with comments from Pan Gongsheng, People’s Bank of China governor PBOC provides specific directions for stock buybacks and reloans to increase holdings, and it is the bottom line that credit funds cannot enter stock market in violation of regulationsCentral bank’s provision of stock buyback and additional purchase re-loans has specific directional aims,

Take a look at the state of the crypto industry and one thing quickly stands out; Bitcoin reigns supreme. In terms of market cap, value per token, and sheer popularity, it is clearly leading the pack. In fact, it was declared the best-performing asset of the 2010s, even beating out gold. With all of these

The S&P index has erased it gains and trading into negative territory as the clock ticks toward the close. The NASDAQ index is holding onto a small gain of around 0.10%. The Dow industrial average is up 0.42% and the Russell 2000 is down -0.27%. At session highs, the S&P index is up nearly 36

It’s a bullish case scenario for the BOJ, if and only if this can be pulled off. Newly appointed Japan prime minister Ishiba will be supportive of that but as inflation stabilises, it might be tough to repeat a similar feat seen last year. For some context, Japanese firms agreed to an average 5.1% wage

Fundamental Overview The PBoC tonight announced new easing measures which included further rate cuts and stock buyback funding. Moreover, we got some positive economic data with Retail Sales and Industrial Production beating expectations by a big margin. These catalysts might see dip-buyers piling into the market again after last week’s big correction. Hang Seng Index

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A stronger US retail sales report yesterday helped keep the dollar in a good spot on the week. Meanwhile, the euro was shaky from the ECB policy decision as Lagarde failed to comfort the economy doomsayers. She continued to highlight data dependency but markets might not take too kindly to that if the data continues

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning as GBPUSD couldn’t print a new low despite another set of strong US data. In fact, the US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin and the US Jobless Claims came out much better than expected. One caveat

In the European session, the only notable event was the release of the UK Retail Sales. The data beat expectations across the board by a big margin and gave the GBP a boost. There’s nothing else on the agenda for the current session although we will hear from many ECB members after yesterday’s policy decision.

As the US stock trading gets started, the Dow is lower as Amex (-4.25%)and P&G (-1.75%) weigh on that index after earnings disappointed. The Nasdaq is moving higher led by Netflix after their earnings (+9.5%). A snapshot of the market is showing: Dow down -125.69 points or -0.29% at 43113S&P +14.76 points or +0.25% at

JPY verbal intervention: Japan govmt says closely watching speculative FX movesYen intervention comments out of Japan China: PBOC Governor says 7-day reverse repo rate will be lowered by 0.2%PBOC has officially ramped up support for the stock market, relending facility launchedChina National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) official says economic indicators positve changePBOC Governor provides directions

There sources report yesterday highlighted that there were some on the ECB who wanted to remove references to being restrictive, so there is a dovish push. The market is pricing in a 23% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for the third quarter came in unchanged at 3.4%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report

S&P 500 futures are up 13 points after touching a record high (and then fading) yesterday. Nasdaq future are up 0.3% with some help from Netflix, whose shares are up 6.5% after beating estimates on subscriber growth. Apple shares are also up 1.8% pre-market on a report that China iPhone 16 sales are up 20%

2025 inflation seen at 1.9% (previously 2%)2026 inflation seen at 1.9%Long-term inflation, defined as 2029, seen at 2.0% This is just a tad more optimistic than the ECB’s own projections, which sees inflation only returning back to the 2% target in Q4 2025 and averaging at 2.3% for next year. The central bank does put

I think there is a chance that Lagarde strikes a more-dovish tone than yesterday but in all likelihood we will hear the same things about data dependence. Right now the market is pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 bps cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

When put into context to the near-term chart below, the quick 30 pip drop earlier isn’t that meaningful. As our reader Alex pointed out, there were some headlines noting that the BOJ is said to see “little need to rush an October rate hike” and that they are “mulling a change to their view on

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold managed to rally into a new all-time high despite some strong US data as Retail Sales and Jobless Claims beat expectations across the board. In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle. The pullbacks will likely

As the 16th BRICS summit approaches, the world is watching with anticipation. With the introduction of new members and the ongoing development of a BRICS currency, this gathering could mark a significant turning point in international finance. Will the summit unveil a new era of economic cooperation and bring about a new currency? Octa Broker

Sector Overview The stock market is experiencing varied performances today, with Technology leading the charge. A noticeable upswing is observed particularly in Tech giants, making it a day of wins for some and losses for others in the sector landscape. 📈 Technology: Apple (AAPL) is up by an impressive 1.29%, demonstrating strong investor confidence. Nvidia

TGIF. The USD is trading lower to start the last trading day of the week.The EURUSD and GBPUSD are higher. The USJDPY is lower. What are the technicals are driving each of the major currency pairs. I will outline them in the video above. Below is a written summary: EURUSD: The EURUSD is rebounding after

CPI data in September is expected to be lower than in August. You’d think such an event might count against the Bank of Japan hiking rates, but they seem to be intent on doing so despite the incoming data. It’ll be interesting to see how the yen responds. USD/JPY above 150 and at its highest

China home price data for September 2024: -5.7% y/y prior -5.3% -0.7% m/m prior also -0.7% We’ve been banging on all year (more?) about the vicious cycle of lower home prices breeding buyer reluctance (why buy no when prices fall, get it cheaper later) breeding lower prices. That has not yet gone away. China’s property

Pell Network, an Omnichain Decentralized Validation Services (DVS) network, has successfully raised $3 million in pre-seed funding, as announced on October 16, 2024. This round was co-led by Paper Ventures, Halo Capital, and Mirana Ventures. Incubator D11-Labs and key investor Delta Blockchain Fund, also participated in this round, along with a diverse group of investors

People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng Expected that depending on the market liquidity situation by the end of the year, the reserve requirement ratio could be further reduced to achieve dynamic balance, macroeconomic policy should shift from investment-focused to balancing both investment and consumption monetary policy framework will be further improved, with a focus

Happy Friday. September housing starts are due at the bottom of the hour and they are the only notable economic indicator in today’s North American session. The consensus is a dip to 1.350m from 1.356m but I doubt the report will move the broader market. In terms of Fedpseak, we hear from Bostic (9:30 am

Prior +1.0%Retail sales +3.9% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +2.5%; revised to +2.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expectedPrior +1.1%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +4.0% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +2.3%; revised to +2.2% It’s a welcome sight for the BOE to see UK retail sales hold up for yet another month. That as

Real Madrid football legend Roberto Carlos and trading pioneers easyMarkets announce the return ofthe xBar Cup at the Dubai Expo 2024.This year’s challenge takes a new turn by spotlighting elite football Freestylers with a strong social media presence, a strategic pivot intended to intensify the competition’s caliber. This refined focus promises to provide both highly-skilled

TGIF. As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. China’s economy grew at a slower pace in the third quarter, with GDP expanding by 4.6% year-on-year, down from 4.7% in the previous quarter and marking the lowest reading in 18 months. This slowdown highlights the challenges

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The changes are mostly light, although UK stocks are dragged lower as the pound creeps up following the retail sales data earlier. US futures are more muted though, with S&P 500 futures seen flat currently. In FX, cable is up 0.4%

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning as GBPUSD couldn’t print a new low despite another set of strong US data. In fact, the US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin and the US Jobless Claims came out much better than expected. One caveat

This is via a bipartisan think tank in the US, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. A paper from the centre looks at the proposed 10% tariff on all products and materials imported from abroad … paired with a Trump-proposed 60% tariff on imports from China It concludes the impacts would include: trillions in revenue for the

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.3% This comes with US futures also keeping rather flattish at the moment. It follows from the more muted showing in Wall Street yesterday, with early gains being erased. The Dow did end higher though but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reverted back to square

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 142 bps ECB: 30 bps (80% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 140 bps BoE: 43 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 138 bps BoC: 80 bps (91%

The ECB delivered the widely anticipated 25bp rate cut today, with President Lagarde sticking to her guns on a meeting-by-meeting approach. Despite the ECB’s “no preset path” mantra, markets are already betting on another cut in December and a 22% chance they lower rates by 50 bps. Westpac highlights how Lagarde adopts the stance of

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) deputy chief comments: September economic indicators showed positive changesChina’s foreign trade situation this year better than expectedFoundation for economic recovery not solid yetWill speed up implementation of a basket of policy measures The data from China today began with that showing new home prices fell at the fastest rate

ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in October monetary policy decision, as expectedLagarde opening statement: Economic activity has been somewhat weaker than expectedLagarde Q&A: All the data is headed in the same directionECB sources: Policymakers expect to cut in December unless data shows marked turnaroundUS September retail sales control group +0.7% vs +0.3% expectedUS

People’s Bank of China: Urges financial institutions to act swiftly in implementing expansive financial policiesNecessary to increase credit support for the real economy, maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of money and creditNecessary to also strengthen the implementation and transmission of interest rate policies, and solidly organise the batch adjustment of interest rates

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It isn’t one that ties too much with any key technical levels but the expiries could help to just keep a lid on price action for the session ahead. That considering there

Thursday: Some major Chinese banks are to lower deposit rates from Friday – report Cuts of 25bp confirmed now from China’s Industrial Commercial Bank, Communications Bank, China Merchants Bank This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a speech on Thursday, warning about the impact of massive tariff hikes on inflation. Candidate for President Trump is proposing a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, along with tariffs of 60% or higher on imports from China. Economists expect that such imposts would be inflationary. In her

North Korea has cut ties with South Korea. Highways, etc. KJU on the blower now says South Korea is a foreign country and apparent hostile country. changed nature of the South Korean-US alliance, different military manoeuvre highlights the importance of stronger North Korean nuclear deterrent road closure means end of ‘evil’ relationship with Seoul Escalating

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva: China’s stimulus measures are ‘in the right direction’ but structural reforms are needed to drive domestic consumption.China should not ‘rely on some miracle’ that would allow exports to keep driving growth with its massive size.China faces ‘trouble’ if it tries to stick to an export-led growth model, with

I posted the news earlier, but the long story short is this is the People’s Bank of China officially launching its relending facility to help listed firms stock repurchases and increasing shareholdings: PBOC Governor provides directions for stock buybacks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US website politico with the news: big Jack Smith document dump coming Friday before the election Trump had asked the judge in the case to delay the release of the special counsel’s evidence until after the election Pertinent details: U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has agreed to release a dossier of evidence amassed by special

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The broader S&P and NASDAQ index snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The S&P index is closing marginally lower. The NASDAQ index is closing marginally higher after earlier gains are erased. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average +161.35 points or 0.37% at 43239.05.S&P index -1.00 points or -0.02% at 5841.46.NASDAQ

USD/JPY rising above 150 ahead of the inflation data – what could possibly go wrong? Regardless of what the data says the Bank of Japan seems hell bent on jacking up rates. The market consensus is for a rate hike in December. Also on the agenda for the session ahead, economic activity data from China

The data is in the screen shot below. More: the unemployment rate in 31 cities was 5.1%January – September property investment was down 10.1% y/yJanuary – September infrastructure investment was +4.1% Offshore yuen is up a little after the data. All three of the major activity indicators were above expectations, with retail sales and industrial

The big shift in betting odds in Polymarket has people intrigued about what is happening under the surface that has some people more-confident that Trump will win the Presidency. He’s at 61% now and that’s spawned all kinds of conspiracy theories as the polls haven’t moved much. But I’m less interested in the Presidency for

USD/JPY is down, just above 150.00 as I update. Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would

The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, as anticipated: ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in October monetary policy decision, as expected Deutsche Bank with a quickie on what’s to come, saying that the ECB cited progress in the disinflation process and recent weaker-than-expected economic data. While the cut is notable

The ECB cut rates on Thursday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB cuts rates, US retail sales beat estimates Given the state of the EU economy analysts are piling in projecting further rate cuts: RBC expect a cascade of European Central Bank rate cuts for the next six months+Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB cuts

A spokesman for the Japanese government with verbal intervention to prop up the yen: Won’t comment on FX levelsimportant for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentalsclosely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency, including speculative moves. ‘Speculative’ is code for they are not happy. These comments follow similar earlier today:

A note this week from National Australia Bank shifting forward their projection for the RBA: We have brought forward our expectations for the timing of rate cuts, now seeing a first cut in February 2025 (previously May)we continue to see a gradual pace of cuts back to 3.10% by early 2026 Main points from the

The data is here: Japan data – September CPI Headline +2.5% y/y (vs. +2.5% expected) USD/JPY is not doing much in response, hovering near 150.20: USD/JPY seems to get up again everytime it takes a hit lower. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Analysts at TD are, pretty much like the market, shrugging off the European Central Bank on Thursday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB cuts rates, US retail sales beat estimates TD says there was no surprise from the ECB and that it took US data move the euro. TD add, though, they cannot be optimistic

RBC analysts are looking for a long series of European Central Bank rate cuts ahead: We expect both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 bps at every meeting until May 2025, contingent on domestic inflation pressures continuing to slow. The thing is, that forecast was written

It’s tough to gauge exactly what the bond market is saying but US 10-year yields have risen 9 bps today and are trading at 4.10% from a low of 3.60% a month ago. A portion of that — for sure — is pricing out a recession. A month ago, non-farm payrolls were deteriorating and there

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.8% The core estimate is unchanged from the initial reading, so it just reaffirms that the ECB can still get away with sneaking in a rate cut later in the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The euro fell to a two-month low of 1.0812 during the ECB press conference. Some of that was on the US dollar side as retail sales beat expectations but the bulk of today’s 40 pip decline in domestically driven. The ECB just doesn’t seem to get it. Lagarde repeatedly highlighted downside risks to growth and

We’re ticking down to the first release of Q3 GDP and so these numbers are worth tuning into and so far, they’re impressive. The latest shift is to 3.4% from 3.2%. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of

The USDJPY is extending above the high from earlier this week at 149.974 for the 2nd time today, but is finding more upside momentum on this break.. The price just reached 150.29. The price of the USDJPY has traders now focused on other targets above including the 50% midpoint of the move down from the

National Australia Bank outlook for the US Federal Reserve, in brief: US economy remains resilientsubstantial progress made in reducing inflation, well anchored inflation expectations and a better supply and demand balance (particularly in the labour market) means less restrictive interest rate settings are needed Fed is expected to cut rates (and our central case is

Crude oil inventories -2191K vs +1835K expGasoline inventories -2201K vs -1471K expDistillates inventories -3543K vs -2181K expRefinery utilization +1.0% versus expectations of -0.6% Private oil inventories released late yesterday: Crude -1580KGasoline -5926KDistillates -2672K WTI crude oil was trading up by 40-cents to $70.80 ahead of the report and these numbers should add to that. This

USDCHF: The USDCHF moved lower from earlier highs but found support buyer near the 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 0.86318. The inability to move and stay below that level increases the levels importance going forward technically. If that level hold, the buyers remain in control. If the price moves below

Goldman Sachs on the European Central Bank, projecting 25bp rate cuts at the meetings in October (later today, 17 October 2024)DecemberJanuaryMarchAprilJune Down to 2% Goldman Sachs have a similar outlook for the US Federal Reserve: Goldman Sachs forecast a long series of consecutive FOMC 25bp rate cuts ahead This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Policymakers expect to cut in December unless there is an economic turnaround, according to Reuters sources. This is no surprise to the market, which is full priced for 25 bps and 15% priced for 50 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.7%German DAX +0.7%France CAC +1.3%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0% European stock markets peaked at the time of the US open but sagged alongside US stocks after the open. The DAX touched a record but then gave much of it back. This article was written by

The major US stock indices are moving higher in early trading led by the NASDAQ index. Better economic data is fueling the gains with retail sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, and initial jobless claims all better than expected. TSMC earnings were higher than expectations overnight. Their shares are currently up over 8%. Nvidia shares are also

The Australia jobs report is due at 11.30 am Sydney time: 0030 GMT2030 US Eastern time I posted earlier on how the performance of the employment markets is giving the Reserve Bank of Australia the space to hold its cash rate high. More of the same expected today. CBA is forecasting a tick higher in

Nvidia is the most-important stock market chart today. The chipmaker took a hit earlier this week on a slowdown at ASML but that weakness was related to non-AI chips and they said that AI-demand was unblemished. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also said that Blackwell chip demand is “insane”. The market found the dip this week

I don’t expect comments on the economy or monetary policy. Famous last words? We’ll soon find out! 2000 GMT / 1600 US Eastern time: Sam Woods deputy governor of Prudential Regulation and CEO of Prudential Regulation Authority of Bank of England delivers speech at Annual City Banquet at Mansion House This article was written by

Ahead of each European Central Bank meeting ING distribute their awesome ‘cheat sheet’. Preamble: ECB widely expected to cut by 25bpafter the recent inflation slowdownWe explore how a market positioned for a predictable outcome could react to a surprise hold or more dovish guidance. We retain a bias for higher front-end EUR rates, and further

The NZDUSD has been consolidating over the last week or so of trading with the 61.8% of the move up from the August low. That level comes in at 0.60509. Last week, the price held that level, bounced, and then broke below the level but quickly rebounded. This week the price returned to the 61.8%

The data is here, very, very strong. Unemployment down despite the participation rate rising. Australian September unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected) I posted earlier that the continued strong jobs numbers in Australia is giving the RBA space to hold its cash rate high to fight stick inflation. Thats still the case after this report.

Prior was 41Current sales 47 vs 45 priorProspective sales 29 vs 27 priorHome sales over the next six months 57 vs 53 prior I’m surprised at the improvement given rising yields and mortgage rates but this is another sign of the strength of the US economy and an impressive one. US 30-year yields are up

Prior month business inventories 0.4%Prior month retail inventories ex auto 0.5%Business inventories for August 0.3% versus 0.3% expectedRetail inventories ex autos 0.5% versus 0.5% last month Sales: The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,876.8

A US official cited by Reuters says: Watching outcome of upcoming Putin-Xi meeting in RussiaExpects trend of deepening support between China and Russia to continueSees indications that China and Russia are feeling the pressure of sanctions and trying to circumvent themUS issues new sanctions on two Chinese entities that help produce military goods for Russia

Prior week 258K revised to 260KInitial jobless claims 241K vs 260K est4-week moving average initial jobless claims 236.25K vs 231.5K priorContinuing Claims 1.867M vs 1.865M estimate. Prior week of continuing claims revised to 1.858M versus 1.861M previously reported4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.843M vs 1.831M prior week (revised) Looking at the largest increases

The USDCAD moved up for 9 consecutive days and was on its way to 10 straight on Tuesday before hitting a resistance target area near 1.3833 to 1.3847 and finding sellers/profit takers. The move back to the downside saw the price move down for 2 days and back to a low today of 1.3743 –

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia. Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.25% vs 3.25% expectedPrior 3.50%Main refinancing rate 3.40% vs 3.40% expectedPrior 3.65%Marginal lending facility 3.65%Prior 3.90%Incoming information shows that the disinflationary process is well on trackThe inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activityInflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to

Gold is up $22 to $2695 today and threatening to touch $2700 for the first time. I’m watching China as a catalyst. Chinese stocks are lower again today as they continue to retrace the big October rally. Earlier today, Chinese officials touted a big announcement to support real estate but then actual announcement was less-than-impressive

Trudeau and the ruling Liberal Party are polling terribly in Canada so the knives are out. Yesterday, the Globe and Mail reported that a backbench revolt is brewing and that he could face a demand from 20 MPs to give up party leadership. Now, four cabinet ministers say they wont’ seek relection. National Revenue Minister

The idea of lowering deposit rates is that it pushes savers into other instruments like stocks. I’d expect some to gravitate towards gold but these are marginal moves at best and certainly not the types of game-changers that China bulls would like to see. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sweeping, untargeted tariffs would raise prices for US householdsThere is a growing international consensus that China must shift its economic practicesChina policies are leading to industrial overcapacity, threatening US firms and workers All I see there is that if Trump wins the election and locks horns with China, it is likely to stoke inflation pressures.

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. The US data dump at 8:30 AM ET was stronger than expected with retail sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, and initial jobless claims all better than expected. In this video take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective. EURUSD is bearish

Prior CHF 4.58 billion; revised to CHF 4.74 billion The Swiss trade surplus grew slightly in September with the breakdown as per below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks rebound and retrace some of the declines from yesterday’s tradeCanadian cardholder spending data “nothing short of abysmal” in latest RBC reportCrude oil settled at $70.39The euro slumps to a two-month low ahead of Thursday’s ECB decisionRBC: Job market poses bigger risk to Canadian economy than mortgage renewalsIsrael assure US that they will act

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia. Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for

After declines of -324.80 points in the Dow yesterday, it retraced all those declines and closed higher by 337.28 points or 0.79% at 43077.70. The S&P and Nasdaq indices were not as robust in their retracement gains today: S&P index fell -44.59 points or -0.76% at 5815.26 yesterday. Today the index rose 27.21 points or

Fundamental Overview Copper erased most of the gains from last month’s strong Chinese easing measures as the market got disappointed on the lack of follow through. In fact, this is something we’ve seen also in the Chinese equity markets with the Hang Seng index being down 14%. There’s a strong correlation between the Chinese stock

The disinflation process is well on trackThis decision is an example of data dependenceEconomic activity has come in below what we anticipatedDecember will be another opportunity to put the information in our modelWhat was debated was 25 basis points, end of story (not 50 bps)Decision to cut 25 bps was unanimous I didn’t open the

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a vibrant day for the semiconductor sector, with key players like Nvidia (NVDA) jumping 2.85% and Broadcom (AVGO) skyrocketing 3.13%. These gains underline strong investor confidence and sector momentum, possibly fueled by demand forecasts or innovation announcements. Meanwhile, the technology sector overall is enjoying a positive trajectory, driven by

The ECB did cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. A summary shows: Interest Rate Changes: Lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points Decreased the interest rates on main refinancing operations to 3.65% Decreased the marginal lending facility rate to 3.90% Changes took effect on September 18, 2024 Inflation Projections: Headline inflation

The latest from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the Labour Force report, September 2024. This is a smashingly good jobs report, AUD/USD has Employment +64.1k expected +25.0k, prior +47.5k Unemployment Rate 4.1% expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Participation Rate 67.2% expected 67.1%, prior 67.1% Full Time Employment +51.6k prior -3.1k I posted earlier that robust

Goldman Sachs on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), are projecting 25bp rate cuts at the meetings in November DecemberJanuaryMarchMayJune “To a terminal rate of 3.25 – 3.5%” The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next meet on November 6 and 7, then December 17 and 18. After that: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

In the European session, the main event will be the ECB rate decision where the central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps. In the American session, we will get lots of US data including Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The focus though will be on the US

The disinflationary process is well on trackManufacturing has continued to contractServices activity showed an uptick in August but latest data is more sluggishBusiness are increasing investment slowlyHousing investment continues to fallSavings rate is well above the pre-pandemic period (about 3 percentage points)Labor market remains resilientWe expect the economy to strengthen over timeExports should contribute to

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia. Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for

German DAX futures +0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.2% UK stocks will be looking to keep the bounce from yesterday going later but the overall market mood is more tepid for now. European indices saw a mixed showing yesterday with the DAX easing slightly further after having touched record highs earlier in the

Officials from the Housing Ministry, the People’s Bank of China, the Finance Ministry and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will hold a joint briefing at 10 am Beijing time on Thursday 17 October 2024: 0200 GMT2200 US Eastern time They’ll be providing details (maybe!) on measures to support the property sector. Chinese property-developer stocks rallied

Justin had the news on softer than estimated UK inflation data Wednesday: UK September CPI +1.7% vs +1.9% y/y expected Adding: reaffirming stronger odds for the BOE to cut rates in November. GBP/USD falls HSBC’s report says GBP could extend lower in the months ahead if U.K. services inflation eases further, Analysts at the bank

Prior was +1.7New orders: 14.2 vs -1.5 priorShipments: 7.4 vs -14.3 priorUnfilled orders: -1.5 vs -6.7 priorDelivery times: 10.2 vs -0.7 priorInventories: 0.5 vs +5.0 priorPrices paid: 29.7 vs +34.0 priorPrices received: 17.9 vs +24.6 priorEmployment: -2.2 vs +10.7 priorAverage workweek: -11.8 vs -13.6 priorSix month index +36.7 vs +15.8 prior The future outlook brightened

ECB President Christine Lagarde explains the Governing Council’s monetary policy decisions and will answer questions from journalists at the Governing Council press conference to be held on 17 October 2024 at 14:45 CET in Ljubljana. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +0.8% revised to 0.3%industrial production for September -0.3% vs -0.2% expected Capacity utilization 77.5% versus 77.8% estimate.Prior month capacity utilization 78.0% revised to 77.8%Manufacturing output -0.4% vs -0.1% expectedPrior manufacturing output +0.9% revised to 0.5% Other details For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 0.6

A Reuters poll is showing: 19 of 29 economists see the Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% at their October 23 meeting10 of 29 economists see a 25 basis point cut to 4.0% By the end of 2024 10 of 29 economists see the rate at 3.5%9 of 29 see

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks ThursdayJapan September drop in exports was the first in ten monthsAxios on Trump’s refusal to release medical recordsPeople’s Bank of China dep. governor says rate cut applies to 90% of existing mortgagesChina’s housing minister says will add 1 mn village urbanization projectsBank of England’s Woods speaking

U2U Network, a Layer-1 blockchain pioneer in decentralized infrastructure backed by top investors like KuCoin Ventures, Chain Capital, and IDG Blockchain, is excited to announce the launch of its first-ever DePIN Node Sale. This sale provides an opportunity for participants to acquire decentralized nodes and contribute to U2U’s growing DePIN infrastructure. With this sale, U2U

Most recently from G: Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation came in around expectations, improvement on housingFed’s Goolsbee: Inflation has cooled, labour market remains strong 1500 GMT/1100 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Annual Exploring Career Pathways in Economics and Related Fields Conference This article was written

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia. Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for

Axios is a US politics site and a bit of a go to for info on this election. They’ve posted a background on Trump in the absence of health records being released: There’s no requirement for a presidential candidate to publicly disclose medical information Former White House physician Jeffrey Kuhlman said Wednesday that as “an

Prior control group was +0.3%Headline retail sales +0.4% versus +0.3% expectedRetail sales $714.4 billion versus $711.3 billion priorPrior m/m sales +0.1%Retail sales y/y +1.7% versus +2.2% priorEx autos +0.5% versus +0.1% expectedPrior ex autos +0.1% prior (revised to +0.2%)Ex autos and gas +0.7% versus +0.3% prior After of this report, the market was pricing in

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. The ECB will announce its rate decision at 8:15 AM ET, with the expectation for a 25 basis point decline ECB expected to lower deposit rate by 25 basis points from 3.50% to 3.25%, with markets pricing nearly

Japan trade data misses estimates on both exports and imports. This is not encouraging data. Exports to: China -7.3% y/ythe EU -9% y/ythe US -2.4% y/y USD/JPY is not a lot changed, around 149.59. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data on Japan’s September trade performance is here: Japan data: September exports -1.7% y/y (expected +0.5%) & imports +2.1% (expected +3.2%) That drop in exports was the first in ten months. You’ll note in the linked post that exports fell to China, the EU and US. Weak demand for autos and the stronger JPY

As the US session works to a close and the Asian Pacific looks to restart, the NZDUSD is pushing the 61.8% retracement target at 0.60509. If the price can move back below that retracement, the low from the first hours of the trading day today down at 0.60387, followed by the low of a swing

FP Markets, a global multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, participated in the Forex Expo Dubai 2024 earlier this month. The largest trading event in the Middle East took place in Dubai, UAE, from 7-8 October and drew an impressive 18,000 visitors this year. The FP Markets Team was invited to participate in two segments: ‘Future

Headlines: AUD/USD advance after jobs data held back by key technicals for nowAUDUSD Technical Analysis – Breakout or fakeout?ECB the main event on the agenda in the session aheadChina says have invited EU technical team over for next phase of EV negotiationsUS must have healthy relationship with China based on level playing field – YellenEurozone

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) Technical Analysis and Price Forecast 👋 Hello investors and traders! Today, we’re diving into the technical analysis of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) on the daily timeframe. There’s been a lot of movement since the breakout of a key resistance line that’s held strong for over two years. Let’s

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The tariffs imposed means that EVs built in China will see 45% duties, which will go into effect next month for five years. The vote went through with ten members backing it while five opposed, alongside twelve abstentions. Of those who opposed, the standout of course is Germany. It looks like China and the EU

Prior €21.2 billion Here is the breakdown by the EU’s main trade partners, denoted in billion euros compared to the previous year: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Singapore non-oil domestic exports +2.7% in September y/y expected +9.3%, prior +10.7% for the m/m +1.1% expected +4.9%, prior -4.7% Exports to the European Union, Indonesia and South Korea rose strongly. Those to the US, Japan and Hong Kong fell. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China dep. governor: On existing mortgage rate cuts most stock of existing mortgage loans interest rates will be adjusted October 25Accounts for 90% of existing mortgages On lowering minimum down payment ratios: Have observed market confidence and sales as a result On real estate development loans: Will be extended until end of

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% It’s a mild recovery for French stocks after the decline yesterday as budget concerns cropped up. While the DAX is still lingering near record highs, the CAC 40 is still just hanging in there after the decline in June following the

RBC is out with its latest Canadian consumer spending tracker and the cardholder data from Canada’s largest bank shows a worsening picture. The report says Canadian consumers “are tapped out”: Retail sales likely declined in September, both nominally and after inflation adjustmentQ3 marks first quarter since early 2021 that services sector spending has weakenedPer capita

Another solid Australian labour market report is expected today. The Reserve Bank of Australia is focused on driving down inflation, and the robust jobs market is giving them space to hold rates at highs. We heard from an RBA official yesterday with no hints on an imminent rate cut: RBA’s Hunter says inflation expectations have

China’s housing minister will add 1 mn village urbanization projectswill expand white list of projects, bank lending to 4tln yuanwill adopt monetisation measures for urbanisation projects Other officials speaking also: All commercial housing loans to be included on white listmanagement of real estate projects will be further standardisedfinancing to be quicker, more convenient Commercial banks

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. When paired together with the technical predicament here, the expiries add another layer for buyers to have to chew through in the session ahead. As such, that might help to limit gains

The upside push in the aussie came after the hot jobs report earlier in the day here. With inflation still holding up, it’s not making it easier to buy into the RBA rate cut story as the economy isn’t exactly falling apart. This rebuffs expectations for the RBA to hold the cash rate unchanged in

It wasn’t supposed to be rate cuts in back-to-back months for the ECB when they did so in September. But alas, here we are. Softer economic data gave markets an opportunity to lead the ECB down this path and policymakers look to be embracing that. Hence, expect the rate cut today to be one positioned

HSBC says there are reasons to cautious in the US equity markets, including: seasonalityUS election But: we think the market may have got the order of the positioning the wrong way aroundLow near-term US earnings expectations now set us up for a further squeeze higher in equities After the election it could be a different

US indices are moving higher and trading to new session highs as the market moves toward the end of day. Dow industrial average traded as high as 43,098.14. The index is currently trading up 325 points or 0.76% at 43064.62S&P index traded as high as 5846.52. The current prices trading at up 25.30. or 0.44%at

Legendary investor Stanley Druckmiller spoke in a Bloomberg interview, where he covered diverse topics including selling Nvidia shares, the Federal Reserve cutting rates, tariffs, and who might win the US presidential election. On the Fed: he expressed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, comparing it to

The euro couldn’t hold above 1.12 in September or August and now the market is rethinking the idea of global rates converging at low levels. That’s left the euro in a vulnerable spot with Goldman Sachs saying it should now be the preferred funder. The ECB will almost-surely cut rates tomorrow and the market is

Info via twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.8 mn barrelsDistillates -2.7 mn bblsGasoline -5.9 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThis not the official report. The two reports are quite different.The official

Crude oil futures are settling at $70.39. That’s down $0.19 or -0.27%. The high price today reached $71.31. The low price was at $69.64. Technically, the price will below a swing area between $71.44 and $72.43 yesterday and stayed below that area today. It would take a move above both to disappoint sellers, and potentially

The ECB meets tomorrow with expectations of a 25 basis point cut. Going into that decision, the EURUSD is moving to its lowest level since August 2. In addition, technically the price just broke below its 200-day moving average at 1.08728. The current price trades at 1.08660. Sellers are making a play below that 200-day

USD/CAD ended a nine-day losing streak yesterday but weak housing starts and manufacturing sales data today helped to solidify the case for a 50 basis point cut next week. The Bank of Canada is rightfully worried about the strength of the economy but most of the discourse in the country has been about housing and

Australian data, Westpac Leading Index for September 2024. WPAC comments: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, lifted from -0.26% in August to -0.15% in September. Leading Index pace of decline moderates slightly

Once again, the bullish momentum for gold continues to impress. After a brief retreat back near $2,600, gold is catching a solid bounce since the end of last week to now hit $2,674 levels. That is seeing price action close in on the record high of $2,685 set out at the end of last month.

The pound is lower owing to the softer UK CPI report earlier here. That rebuffed BOE rate cut expectations for next month, which were already high to begin with. Traders saw ~80% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for November and bolstered that to ~91% now. GBP/USD fell from around 1.3070 to a low

The AUDUSD fell below its 100-day moving average earlier in the Asian session at 0.6694, and after bouncing off a Asian session low of 0.6667, the subsequent corrective high found willing sellers near that moving average level and below the 0.6700 natural resistance level. The last few hours have seen more downside momentum which is

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.1%German DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.4%UK FTSE 100 +1.0%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3% UK stocks are some of the cheapest ones out there but they’ve been rangebound since May. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In reaction to a Biden administration ultimatum, Israel officials assures US, that they will act quickly to improve dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier today, UK September CPI came in at +1.7% year-over-year, below the expected +1.9%, with core CPI at +3.2% versus the forecasted +3.4%. The numbers marked a decline from prior figures of +2.2% and +3.6%, respectively. The softer inflation data led to a drop in GBP/USD from 1.3073 to 1.2981, as it reinforced expectations of

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) have published a piece that is interesting. On the increasing role AI will play in trading. Hedge funds, investment banks, and others have been using quantitative trading strategies for decades. Automated trading algorithms have helped markets move faster and digest large trades more efficiently in major asset classes such as

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. In the European morning session, UK September CPI came in at +1.7% year-over-year, below the expected +1.9%, with core CPI at +3.2% versus the forecasted +3.4%. This marks a decline from prior figures of +2.2% and +3.6%, respectively.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap presents a vivid picture of varying fortunes across different sectors. Notably, semiconductors are surging ahead, with NVDA up by 1.48% and AVGO leading with a 1.68% gain. The sector is buoyed by robust demand prospects and positive industry outlooks. However, the technology sector reveals mixed signals. While major players

The USDCHF is stretching above and away from the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the early July high to the early September low. That level comes in at 0.86318. The price action yesterday also held support at the low of a swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. Staying above those levels gave the

October began strong for the oil market, with WTI crude prices rising 16% in the first week to $78, above the VWAP and indicating an uptrend. Some feared prices could hit $100, raising worries about inflation. Several factors led to this change in sentiment after months of decline. First, China announced its largest stimulus package

Sales at the lowest level since Jan 2022Prior was +1.4%Manufacturing sales dropped 1.3% to C$69.4 billion in AugustPrimary metals (-6.4%) and petroleum/coal products (-3.7%) led declinesSales down 4.4% year-over-yearSales in constant dollars fell 0.8% Key Details: Eighth straight month of y/y declines for manufacturing sectorPrimary metals hit by weaker domestic and international demandPetroleum products affected

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic: US economy performing quite wellFairly confident inflation will get to 2% targetI don’t have a recession in my outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes the need for caution regarding near-term downside for EUR/USD. Despite weak momentum, the European Central Bank is not likely to shift to a more aggressive policy stance, which may help support the euro in the short term. Key Points: Limited ECB Guidance:The ECB is expected to maintain its cautious approach and not

Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi speaking. Conditions are already in place for the BOJ to start normalizing monetary policy.In normalizing monetary policy, the BOJ must take rate hikes in several stages.In normalizing policy, the BOJ must avoid drastic policy change that could stoke fear of a return to deflation.The BOJ will raise rates

Fundamental Overview There hasn’t been any catalyst this week for the rally in gold although we had a key technical breakout which might have increased the bullish momentum. The lack of bearish catalysts though is helping to keep the bid going as the market has finished to reprice the aggressive rate cuts expectations that weighed

The European Central Bank meeting is on Thursday, October 17, 2024, so i don’t expect anything on the economy or policy from this. 1020 GMT/0620 US Eastern time – Speech by ECB Board member Claudia Buch during a lecture at Bocconi University Buch is Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board This article was written by

Prior -5.1%Market index 230.2 vs 277.5 priorPurchase index 138.4 vs 149.2 priorRefinance index 734.6 vs 997.3 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.52% vs 6.36% prior Amid a jump in rates, mortgage applications dropped hard in the past week with both purchase and refinancing activity slumping hard. The latter in particular fell by 26% to its softest number

Prior month import prices -0.3% revised to -0.2%US import prices MoM -0.4% versus -0.2% expectedUS export prices MoM -0.7% versus -0.4% expected Previous export prices revised to -0.9% from -0.7%Import prices year on year -0.1% which was the first 12 month drop since February 2024Export prices fell -2.1% year over year. That was the largest

There are some compelling arguments out there that the disappointing ASML orders don’t have a read-through to AI chipmakers as ASML’s miss is one chips related to the real economy, like autos. We know that’s weak but Nvidia is trading on a different theme and didn’t deserve the 5% decline yesterday. I can see that

Deutsche Bank has released a matrix of potential market reactions to various US election scenarios, while admitting that its own team is divided and the reactions are highly uncertain. “We see the most bullish dollar outcome as a red sweep and the most bearish dollar outcome on a blue sweep, but the magnitude of the

Eurostoxx -0.8%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -1.0%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% It’s a tale of two sides when it comes to the European open today. For UK stocks, they are benefiting from the softer inflation numbers earlier and that has also put a drag on sterling. As for French stocks, there is

Headlines: Sterling the main mover in the FX space on the sessionUK September CPI +1.7% vs +1.9% y/y expectedThe gold train looks to march onThis catalyst could trigger a huge selloff in goldGold and Silver: A Correlated DuoJapan’s largest union group Rengo reportedly eyes wage hike of 5% or more in 2025BOJ’s Adachi says no

In the kickstart video for October 16, I take a look from a technical perspective at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What next? EURUSD: The EURUSD on Monday moved and stayed below its 100-day moving average at 1.0936. The subsequent fall meandered its way down to a low today of 1.08744. That was just above

New Zealand inflation data Before the data, did y’all see the little jump higher for NZD/USD just prior (about a minute) to the data release? Sometimes FX is a dirty game 😉 Data: non-tradable prices +1.3% q/q and +4.9% y/ytradeables -0.2% q/q That y/y result shows for the first time since March 2021, annual inflation

This will be to attend a meeting of central bank governors between Japan, China, and South Korea. This is a common exercise between the three that typically takes place once a year. It is meant as a regular exchange of views on “regional economic and financial developments as well as topics of common interest concerning

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need more strong US

Standard Chartered has released a report predicting a potential rise in bitcoin’s value, could approach its previous high of $73,800 in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election. A few crypto outlets cite the report. First: Several key factors are driving this trend renewed interest in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)Trump’s improving election odds (could

The USDCAD finally fell yesterday after nine straight days to the upside. That move higher took the price from 1.34198 to a high yesterday of 1.38378 (418 pips in nine trading days). The price low yesterday reached 1.3769, which was just short of the rising 100-hour moving average. In trading today, however, the price has

Gold is shining once again today and nearing a record high. It’s up $22 to $2683, just short of the $2686 record set on September 25. I spoke to Kitco last week on the outlook for gold and highlighted the strength on Thursday and Friday and how that was a good sign. “It’s just impressive,

Prior was 217.4 (revised to 213.0K) The investor class has largely abandoned Canadian new home construction and that’s leaving builders scrambling to sell units, especially in condos. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Russell 2000 is threatening to break out to the highest since November 2021 as banks lead a broad rally. The KRE regional bank ETF is up for a fourth straight day and trading above a series of highs from July-Sept to the best levels since February 2023. That’s been driven by better signs on

This is a very interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that the ‘stimulus’ from China has very limited goals: According to officials and government advisers close to decision-making, (Xi) wanted to bail out indebted Chinese municipalities on the brink of collapse and revive the stock market without veering too far from his focus

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The major US indices are opening mixed/little changed. The Russell 2000 is higher and leading the way Yesterday all three major indices fell. Dow Industrial Average fell -324.80 points or -0.85% at 42,740.42S&P fell -44.59 points or -0.76% at 5815.26.Nasdaq fell -187.10 or -1.01% and 18315.59. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial

There were some light moves in Asia but major currencies have reverted back to keep little changed overall. You can check out the summary of the moves here as recapped by Eamonn. And here’s a snapshot of the FX space as we look towards European trading: The dollar remains poised on the week with EUR/USD

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need more strong US

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment might be a bit more muted in the session ahead. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, so that continues to be the running theme since two weeks ago. There’s no significant extension of that this week but

Bitcoin Price Predictions Surging for 2024 Election YearAI adoption in trading applications is acceleratingECB Board member Claudia Buch speaking WednesdayRBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 3.4% y/y for Q3 2024 (prior 3.6%)JPY strengthened a little on comments from BOJ board member AdachiBOJ’s Adachi says conditions are already in place to start normalising policyPBOC sets USD/ CNY

That will be a welcome boost for the BOJ, after the 5.25% wage hike in the spring wage negotiations this year. That was the highest since 2013, following the 3.80% wage hike back in 2023 before that. We’ll only get more clarity on the final figure come March next year, following the shuntō. This article

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need more strong US

Rate hike so far has had intended effectBut must avoid falling back into deflation with premature rate hikesRisk of upward pressure heightening from yen declines has reduced significantly The headline remark takes some of the edge of his earlier comments in the day here. USD/JPY continues to trade little changed on the day, seen at

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fire at an oil refinery in Khuzestan, Iran. Its said to be due to a collision between vehicles, not the result of an attack. Who knows for sure! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canada September CPI 1.6% vs 1.8% expectedSeptember Empire Fed -11.9 vs +3.85 expectedTrump: The most-beautiful word in the dictionary is “tariff”Trump says he would be a better Fed chairman than PowellUS holiday sales are expected to grow at slowest pace in six yearsCanadian Real Estate Association downgrades 2024 forecastFed’s Daly: If forecast met, she sees

The surging optimism from China before the Golden Week holiday gave the aussie a noticeable boost. But that has largely faded as the dollar rebounded and also as investors are coming off cloud nine on the China optimism. Chinese equities have been rather shaky since the return from the holidays and that is continuing to

The UK CPI report was the only highlight of today’s calendar. The data missed expectations across the board by a big margin and prompted the market to price in high chances of another 25 bps cut in December. Looking ahead there’s no notable economic release on the agenda. We can highlight the release of the

With the dollar having rebounded in early October, it is now the pound side of the equation coming into focus for GBP/USD. The pair had retreated back down below 1.3100 since last week but hasn’t really found extra incentive to drive towards a test of 1.3000, at least until today. So, what’s next? The softer

The bullish momentum in gold remains unabated given the lack of bearish catalysts. We did get a pullback in the end of September/start of October as the repricing in the aggressive rate cuts expectations raised real yields and weighed on the market. There’s lots of people shorting this monster at every new high trying to

While gold and silver often move in tandem, their relationship can sometimes be complicated. Despite sharing similar characteristics and applications, differences in underlying demand and supply dynamics can lead to occasional divergences. Octa broker discovers the nuances behind the gold-silver correlation and explores potential trading opportunities with the gold-silver ratio. Over the past 40 years,

The Canadian dollar is on track for a tenth day of declines today and the selling was helped out by CPI at 1.6% y/y compared to 1.8% expected. The market was evenly split on the question of 25 bps vs 50 bps ahead of the data but the probabilities now sit at 73% for a

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Silk: Remain confident that inflation will converge back to the 2% target midpoint in the medium term.We will continue to assess and respond to risks arising from broader economic conditions to manage inflation back to this level.Monetary policy has been sufficiently restrictive to ensure that broader financial conditions

Justin had the info from the International Energy Agency (IEA) here: the oil market is faced with a sizeable surplus in the new year Eyes are on China, and slow growth in demand: Chinese oil demand remains below expectationsChina is expected to account for about 20% of global growth in 2024 and 2025, compared with

Chen Binhua, the spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that: “We are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and endeavour. But we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force.” He does go on to warn against “external forces” in play though and that “if

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.4% UK stocks are poised for a more positive open, cheering on the softer inflation report just moments ago. US futures are keeping quieter though, seen more or less flattish at the moment. So, that’s not giving too much away in terms of overall sentiment

That is a step up from ~80% before the inflation data. Looking at the bigger picture, traders are now pricing in ~117 bps of rate cuts up until June 2025. And that is also a modest step up from ~105 bps before the numbers. As a reminder, there are six policy meetings to go between

Prior +1.1%HICP +0.7% vs +0.8% y/y prelimPrior +1.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. The added good news here is that core annual inflation is seen easing slightly further to 1.8%, down from 1.9% in August. Services inflation remains the sticking point, seen at 2.8% but at least down from 3.2% previously. This

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.6% The pound falls as the numbers here are softer than estimated, reaffirming stronger odds for the BOE to cut rates in November. GBP/USD falls from 1.3070 to a low of 1.3018 as headline annual inflation falls back under the 2% mark for the first time since

The Westpac Leading Index was published earlier: Australia leading index in September shows still very slow growth ahead In their report WPAC conclude with what they expect from the RBA at the final two meetings this year: The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 4–5. We continue to expect no change in the cash

Core machinery orders data from Japan for August 2024, very disappointing indeed. -1.9% m/m expected +0.1%, prior -0.1% -3.4% y/y expected 3.8%, prior 8.7% Really awful data. About the best that can be said is that this is choppy data set. — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as

Commentary from Nomura, a bit of a big picture view. Analysts at the bank are circumspect on what monetary policy can do. Nomura argue that, looking ahead, higher levels of inflation seem inevitable, partly due to inflated asset prices and the limits of efficiency driven by globalization. If, they add, we shift to a more

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic spoke earlier, headline comments here: Fed’s Bostic: US economy performing quite well, confident inflation will get to 2% target In that post you’ll note he sees another 25bp cut this year and that’s all. He was speaking on his updated projections for last month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

The comments from Adachi are here, he sounded hawkish (for the BoJ): BOJ’s Adachi says conditions are already in place to start normalising policy While he flagged higher rates to come, there were a few caveats, USD/JPY fell under 149.00 and isn’t much above as I post: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

We had NZ data earlier, pointing to continued RBNZ rate cuts: New Zealand Q3 CPI 0.6% q/q (expected 0.7%) & 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%)RBNZ’s Silk says confident inflation will converge to 2% target midpoint in medium term NZD/USD has continued to slide after that data. AUD dropping also. Am I going to get sent to

Nomura on Japan’s economy and the BOJ: Japan’s economy is expected to continue its recovery and surpass its potential starting in the second quarter of 2024. The newly formed Ishiba cabinet is focused on completely lifting Japan out of deflation, aligning with the Bank of Japan’s policy approach. Discussions on wages and prices will resume

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q3 CPI 0.6% q/q (expected 0.7%) & 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%)RBNZ’s Silk says confident inflation will converge to 2% target midpoint in medium term You can see in the screenshot from the RBNZ below that their own model of inflation is not low

UBS advice to clients is that the contest for President remains very close indeed, and to anticipate both volatility and uncertainty to increase until the winner is decided, UBS cites ABC News/Ipsos polling showing a small 20 to 3 point lead for Harris cites CBS News/YouGov showing pretty much the samecites NBC News as showing

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic) Hunter: monitoring data to see if inflation will remain stickythere are risks both ways current policy is restrictive This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hunter is speaking at the Citi Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference, Sydney Hunter says the Reserve Bank of Australia is not concerned inflation expectations getting de-anchored in the near-term policymakers remained alert to such a riskhouseholds appear to have looked through the recent spike in inflation more than the central bank might have expectedrelationship

At 1900 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation on the economic outlook and impact on small business Bostic last week: Bostic is at it again – suggests ‘totally comfortable’ with a November Fed pause As I said on Bostic last week, he was the first

Chipmakers and China are weighing on US equity markets. The main catalyst for the selloff was a soft guide from ASML in results that were accidentally released early. Shares of the company are down 17% and have led to 5% declines in Nvidia and AMD among other chip names. Other laggards are China stocks with

The big turn in tech shares today was largely due to a disappointing guide from Dutch fab-builder ASML. The company accidentally posted results early due to a technical glitch and shares have fallen 17%. ASML said it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros, that’s at

Various reports suggest that Israel won’t strike Iran’s oil infrastructure in retaliation for recent strikes. The latest report cited officials from the Biden administration, speaking anonymously to the Associated Press, was said that Israel has pledged not to attack Iranian oil and nuclear sites. However, these officials express skepticism about the reliability of Israel’s commitment,

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.7%German DAX flatFrance CAC -0.9%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%Spain IBEX +0.9%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.1% The German DAX touched a record high but wasn’t able to hold onto the gains and finished flat. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need more strong US

This comment is surprising as it validates fears of a Fed pause. The market is pricing in 45 bps in cuts this year so the two cuts are nearly priced in. Daly is a dove and can be a mouthpiece for Powell. I’d take this as hawkish. More: “Las Vegas is a very good bellwether

Christmas shopping will start soon after Halloween in the US and the National Retail Federation isn’t overly optimistic. Their latest forecast is for a nominal 2.5-3.5% rise in spending, the slowest pace in six years. They see sales between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, up from $955.6 billion a year ago. They also see less

Must watch markets carefully for signs balance sheet wind down should stopKeeping a large balance sheet has costsIt’s good for the Fed to be gradual with policy when times are uncertain There’s nothing big here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the USDJPY pair seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need more strong US

Trump, asked if he would replace Powell, didn’t offer a hint and instead responded: “I think I’m better than he would be. I think I’m better than most people in that position.” On changing rates, he did concede that he couldn’t dictate them: “I don’t think I should be allowed to order it. I should

The main highlight in the European session was the release of the UK Labour Market report. The data was better than expected but there’s the usual caveat of unreliability. We will also see the German ZEW but it’s not going to change anything in terms of market pricing. The next important releases will be the

Five reasons why US inflation risks are still risingFederal Reserve speakers today include Daly, Kugler and BosticPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0830 (vs. estimate at 7.0840)BBG: US weighs capping AI chip sales from Nvidia, AMD, other US firms to some countriesICYMI – China’s exports grow at their slowest pace in 5

I hadn’t even started yet with tariffs yet in first termMexico auto plants will be the end of MichiganOur country is being threatened by Mexico Trump is at 58% on Polymarket. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is in New York today and speaking at the Stern School of Business. She will deliver remarks and then participate in a moderate conversation. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a cut in November with a 10% chance of a hold. This article was written by

Profit-taking is hitting the broader US equity market with the S&P 500 down 21 points or 0.3% following yesterday’s record high. The signal to sell may have been triggered by Nvidia shares. The company failed to break the June record yesterday and is down more than 5% today. A report yesterday suggested the US was

Is cautiously optimistic about growthFed has been able to get inflation down without a major disruptionInflation retreat has been broad-basedFed funds rate is a long way from where it’s likely to settle3% rate may be around neutralNeutral rate is higher than what it once wasLack of dissents don’t mean Fed officials fully agreeInflation points are

Mon pol is still restrictive and working to lower inflationContinued progress on Fed goals not assured, Fed must remain vigilantFed must deliver on 2% inflation while keeping job market at full employmentA continued expansion remains very possibleLabor market has cooled, largely normalizedEconomy is clearly in a better place, inflation has eased a lotFully expects economy

Can the bulls do it again? S&P 500 futures are up 4 points today despite the rout in China. There is some help from lower bond yields and the 4% decline in oil prices but overall resilience in equities has been remarkable. For the past week, we’ve seen a consistent pattern of softish futures followed

Equities keep more tentative so far in the new dayEurozone August industrial production +1.8% vs +1.7% m/m expectedGermany October ZEW survey current conditions -86.9 vs -84.5 expectedUSD/JPY wrestles with near-term support after nearing 150.00 yesterdayIEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast amid China dragChina economy set to miss growth target in 2024 – pollChinese stocks

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan was on CNBC talking about his bank and the economy. He warned the external shocks could hit the US economy but said that overall demand from clients was ‘solid’. He initially started to say ‘strong’ then corrected himself. He outlined an outlook where US growth sags to below 2%

CREA now expects 468,900 properties to change hands in 2024 That’s up 5.2% from 2023But down from July forecast of 6.1% increaseand way down from April forecast of 10.5% increaseAverage home price forecast for 2024: Now expecting 0.9% annual increase to $683,200Previous outlook was 2.5% annual increaseSeptember data: Average home price: $669,630 (up 2.1% y/y)Sales

The dollar is trading more mixed on the day, keeping steadier against the rest of the major currencies bloc but down against the yen. I would say there’s not too much in that as the USD/JPY retreat looks more like a fall after having nearly clipped the 150.00 mark yesterday. With that, it now draws

GDT price index -0.3%Whole milk powder 0.0% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated) have a good piece up citing Capital Economics on why the Saudis could flood the market with cheap oil, and to watch for the signs of this happening. In summary Saudi Arabia may increase oil production due to deteriorating cohesion among OPEC+ membersOPEC+ producers have been overproducing by up

I stumbled across this Goldman Sachs chart that highlights global equity valuations. Most of the world is in the middle of the range but US stocks are above the top of the 90th percentile. I’m glad they stripped out mega-cap tech as well because it highlights that it’s not just a few names driving it

Netanyahu won’t strike Iraian oil or nuclear targetsS&P index closes at a new record for the 46th time in the year. Dow at a new recordEconomic calendar in Asia – Fed’s Kashkari speakingMore from Waller: Right now a lot of recent high productivity growth is rebound from lowsFed’s Waller. Fed should proceed with more caution

25 of 49 (51%) economists expect the BOJ to keep rates unchanged through year-endThe previous poll showed 46% of economists expecting rates to be unchanged39 of 45 (87%) economists expect the BOJ to raise rates by 25 bps by end of March 2025 It is interesting to see the perception starting to shift. Of those

A note for AUD traders. Sarah Hunter, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic), will be speaking at the Citi Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference, Sydney on Wednesday, October 16, 2024 scheduled for 9 am Sydney time2200 GMT and 1800 US Eastern time on Tuesday, October 15, 2024 This article was written by Eamonn

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic landscape with distinct sector performances. The technology sector is showing promising strength, driven by gains in software and infrastructure stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), which is up by 0.42%. Meanwhile, the energy sector is facing challenges, with notable declines in key players such as Exxon Mobil (XOM),

Over the weekend the bull market turned two years old, and it started the new year with gains once again. The S&P index closed higher for the 46th time this year. The Dow industrial average also closed at a new record level. The NASDAQ index is still off of its all-time high reached in the

Bitcoin is showing fresh signs of life as it climbs $1600 to $67,500. That’s the best since late-July and breaks a pair of highs in August and September, indicating some growing optimism about crypto and improving risk appetite (the S&P 500 is at a record). There is something strange going on in shares of MSTR

A surprise drop in Canadian inflation to just 1.6% y/y has reignited bets that the Bank of Canada will lower rates by 50 basis points later this month. Canadian September CPI was expected to fall to 1.8% from 2.0% but tumbled further below the central bank’s target. USD/CAD rose about 15 pips in the aftermath

The September retail sales report is due on Thursday at 8.30 am US Eastern time: This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. Snippet from Bank of America’s preview: could strengthen the ‘no landing’ narrative, which would be bullish for equities (a “no landing”

One year inflation unchanged at 3.0%Three-year inflation 2.7% vs 2.5% prior Five year inflation 2.9% vs 2.8% Credit delinquency expectations rise to highest since April 2020Perceived probability of losing job unchanged at 13%Median home price rise 3.0% vs 3.1% priorExpected year-ahead spending and income growth unchangedExpected earnings growth dipped to 2.8% from 2.9% There isn’t

Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.5% Looking at the details, there were increases in production for energy (+0.4%), capital goods (+3.7%), durable consumer goods (+1.7%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.2%). The only decrease was for the production of intermediate goods (-0.3%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 2.0%CPI m/m -0.4 vs -0.2% expectedPrior m/m +0.4% Core measures CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.6% vs 1.5% priorCPI Bank of Canada core m/m 0.0% versus -0.1% priorCore CPI m/m SA +0.1% vs +0.1% prior (revised to +0.2%)Median 2.3% versus 2.3% priorTrim 2.4% versus 2.5% priorCommon 2.1% versus 2.0% prior This really

The Wall Street Journal is gated, but here is the link if you can access it: Citi Sees Possibility of $120 Oil if Supplies Are Disrupted The bull-case scenario is based on the risk of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran In (very brief) summary: base case is for Brent to average

Prior 4.1%Employment change 373k vs 250k expectedPrior 265kAverage weekly earnings +3.8% vs +3.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.0%; revised to +4.1%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.9% vs +4.9% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.1%September payrolls change -15kPrior -59k; revised to -35k The UK jobless rate ticks lower again but in terms of payrolls, it’s yet another month of declines although

Empire Fed -11.9 vs +11.5 prior Details: New orders: -10.2 vs +9.4 priorShipments: -2.7 vs +17.9 priorUnfilled orders: -2.2 vs +2.1 priorDelivery times: -3.2 vs -1.1 priorInventories: -7.5 vs 0.0 priorPrices paid: 29.0 vs 23.2 priorPrices received: 10.8 vs 7.4 priorEmployment: 4.1 vs -5.7 priorAverage employee workweek: 4.7 vs 2.9 priorSupply availability: -7.5 vs -2.1

German wholesale prices fell once more as prices in wholesale trade in mineral oil products declined sharply again, down 4.5% on the month. At the balance, wholesale prices are down 1.6% relative to a year ago but owes much to the above development as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China to hold press conference on promoting steady and healthy development of property sector on October 17 at 10 am Beijing time. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.