Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although […]

As the North American session, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The rundown of the expectations shows. Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep): Forecast 140k, Previous 142kUnemployment Rate (Sep): Forecast 4.2%, Previous 3.8%Average Earnings MM (Sep): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%Average Earnings YY

I suspected this would be the case. We’ll hear from Goolsbee later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Decent – and level-headed – read from Reuters on possible ways that Israel could strike back at Iran. Full Story on PiQ Suite GO AFTER IRAN’S MILITARY INSTALLATIONS Some analysts believe Israel is most likely to respond by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in Tuesday’s attacks.

EU governments face pivotal vote on Chinese EV tariffs Full Story on PiQ Suite European Union members face a pivotal vote on Friday on whether to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles in the bloc’s highest profile trade case, which risks retaliation from Beijing. The EU’s proposal can be

Given the momentum, I would expect all the Fed watchers to shift to 25 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economic forecasting isn’t easy. At various points over the last two years it looked like the US was slowing down dramatically. At the start of 2023, a looming recession call was the consensus forecast. This year, as some economic indicators deteriorated, those calls returned. It was understandable — high interest rates hurt the economy. In

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: says PM Ishiba has instructed the compilation of a comprehensive economic packagea supplementary budget will be compiled after the lower house election Perhaps even more stimulus in Japan will feed into higher inflation and higher rates. I guess that’s the hope? Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi This article was written

The US looks like it’s heading for a soft landing. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0510% compared to 4.220% previously and adds downside risks to the Fed’s year-end dot at 4.4%. It also reverses some recent upwards momentum. The rates market is now pricing in just a 9% chance of a 50 basis point cut

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.7%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC +0.9%UK FTSE 100 flatSpain Ibex +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +1.3% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.8%Germany DAX -2.2%France CAC -3.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.5%Spain IBEX -2.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.2% The market wasn’t happy about talk of corporate tax increases in France and Italy. This article was written by

Times are listed GMT/US Eastern time: 0615/0215 Keynote speech by ECB board member Claudia Buch at 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organised by Lithuanian Central Bank 0700/0300 Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva and Bank of Portugal governor Mario Centeno to speak at an event 1000/0600 Remarks by ECB Vice President Luis de

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved down to test the low of what has been a 200 or so pip trading range during yesterday’s trading. MOve below 1.0995 (the 50% of the move up from August 1) and the swing area between 1.1001 to 1.1014 opens the door for more do USDJPY: Has a ceiling This article

The US jobs report has sent the USDCHF, finally outside of the up and down trading range that has mostly confined the pair between 0.8399 and 0.85368. The price was trading near 0.85166 ahead of the report, and has now surged up to 0.8607. At the high, the price has tested the 61.8% retracement of

The market is pricing in just a 6% chance of a cut. Pricing in Fed fund futures shows 25.9%. Is it too early for someone to make the ‘hold’ call? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We haven’t heard from NY Fed President John Williams since the FOMC decision but we will today. Unfortunately, he might not touch on the outlook for rates. He’s delivering opening remarks at a conference about “The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs”. That’s the kind of topic that invites bland throw-away lines. We’ll

EU Moves Forward with Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Member Vote Full Story on PiQ Suite The European Commission announced it has secured enough support to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, marking a significant trade decision that could provoke retaliation from Beijing. The tariffs, aimed at countering what

EU countries do not vote clearly for or against tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, leaving European Commission to decide – EU sources. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are higher in early trading as buyers share the stronger US jobs report and hope that inflation remains contained. A snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average up 253.78 points or 0.66% at 42265.37.S&P index of 41.77 points or 0.73% at 5741.71NASDAQ index

The US jobs report came in much stronger than expected and that has sent the US dollar to the upside as the initial reaction. Yields are higher and the stock markets are higher as well. In this video, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective. We know

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rallied strongly on Tuesday following the first news of an imminent missile attack from Iran against Israel. We had also the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release with the new orders index ticking higher in a potentially first sign of an improvement in demand. Yesterday, crude oil extended the gains as we

Construction PMI 42.1 vs 41.4 prior. Key findings: Construction activity falls across all monitored countries and sectors. Employment and purchases scaled back further.Expectations regarding outlook remain severely downbeat. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Eurozone’s construction sector shows no signs of easing. While the

The end of the port strike is another piece of very good newsThe Fed does not want to react too much to one data pointIf we get more jobs reports like this, we will be more confident we are settling at full employmentStrong jobs report is likely to mean strong GDPWe are still a ways

Sweden to abstain in vote on EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles – Trade Minister.Sweden says has received positive signals from Commission about possibility for special deal for Volvo Cars in EV dispute – Trade Minister. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Goolsbee is now speaking on Yahoo Finance External shocks have derailed a soft landing many timesOur goal is to keep inflation, unemployment almost exactly where they are right nowWe will get a bunch more data before the next Fed meeting This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECB’s De Guindos: By end of 2025 ECB expects inflation and core inflation to hover around 2%, but too early to declare victory in fight against inflation.ECB’s De Guindos: Recent inflation data have been good, represented a positive surprise, but growth still reflects risks to the downside.ECB’s De Guindos: In general ECB is in favour

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals that the technology sector is leading the charge with notable gains. Among the top performers is Broadcom (AVGO) with a significant rise of 2.33%, supported by gains in Nvidia (NVDA) up 1.59%, and AMD (AMD) with an increase of 2.56%. This performance underscores a bullish sentiment within semiconductors, buoyed

0900 US Eastern time (1300 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives opening remarks before conference, “The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs” at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Williams speakls just after the payrolls data: Goldman Sachs preview US nonfarm payroll data Friday, October 4: +165K

We express deep concern over the deteriorating situation in the Middle EastWe condemn in the strongest terms Iran’s direct military attack against Israel, which constitutes a serious threat to regional stabilityWe call on all regional players in the Middle East to act responsiblyWe reiterate our call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and unconditional release

Mainland China remains on holiday, markets there reopen on Tuesday October 8. Hong Kong is, of course, open. The Hang Seng index had a retracement fall yesterday. On the data agenda, Australian housing finance is about it. This is unlikely to move AUD too much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

The September employment report is due from the US on Friday 4 October 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT. Adam had a preview posted earlier: September non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Beware the seasonal pattern And, GS: Goldman Sachs preview US nonfarm payroll data Friday, October 4: +165K /jobless rate 4.2% You

Spain Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) Actual: -0.1% 🔴 Expected: 0.1% Previous: -0.4% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Two-month net revision: +72K vs -86K priorUnemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% priorUnrounded unemployment rate: 4.0510% vs 4.220% priorParticipation rate: 62.7% vs 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +223K vs 118K priorPrior private payrolls +118K revised to +114KU6 underemployment rate: 7.7% vs 7.9% priorAverage hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)Average hourly

Inflation is controlled.Inflation today is very close to 2%. These are token remarks. The market has already fully priced in a 25 bps cut in October, so there’s nothing new the ECB members can say. It’s now about the data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Introduction Blockchain technology has transformed various sectors, from finance to healthcare, by introducing decentralized, transparent, and secure systems. First popularized by Bitcoin, blockchain is now the backbone of numerous applications across industries. Blockchain’s decentralized ledger technology (DLT) enables secure and tamper-proof transactions, making it a game-changer in terms of security and data integrity. This article

Bank of England’s Pill: Current wage and services price inflation are a source of continued concern. This links up with earlier comments from Pill here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU releases statement after EU vote on tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU: Urges EU to act prudently, delay implementation of tariffs, avoid escalation of trade frictions.Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU: Expresses strong dissatisfaction with EU for promoting ‘trade protectionism’ measures. This article was written

Chinese Commerce Ministry releases statement after EU vote on tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV tariffs: China firmly opposes EU’s ‘unfair’, ‘non-compliant’, ‘unreasonable’ protectionist practices.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV tariffs: ‘Protectionist practices’ of EU seriously violate rules of WTO.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV

The Morning Blast @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Friday 4th Oct. 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Set Reminder Here 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Justin is off for a few days. I’ll be posting these for another couple of days before regular (and much better 😉 ) service resumes! EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR2.09b), 1.1100 (EUR1.07b) USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$958m), 146.25 (US$879m) USD/CAD: 1.3350 (US$1.68b), 1.3500 (US$993m), 1.3600 (US$657m) AUD/USD: 0.6850 (AUD813m), 0.6700 (AUD418m), 0.6650 (AUD300m) For more information on how to

US official believe Israel’s retaliation will be measured enough to avoid triggering new rounds of escalationOne official said Israel wants to send a strong signal to Iran while hoping to put a lid on the conflictNo final decisions had been made by IsraelWashington did not expect to participate in strikesThere is growing concern among US

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Sep) Actual: 2.5% 🟢 Expected: 2.4% Previous: 2.4% (s.a.) Actual: 2.6% Expected: 2.6% Previous: 2.5% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs raises its year-end Turkey inflation forecast to 44% from 40% after September CPI data.Goldman Sachs says now expects first Turkey rate cut in January, from November previously. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

French Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) Actual: 1.4% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.2% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Construction PMI 41.7 vs 38.9 prior. Key findings: Further sharp, albeit slower, fall in total industry activity. Rate of job shedding quickens. Input costs continue to fall. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The construction sector is starting to show some faint signs

Standard Chartered say that gold is a hedge against geopolitical risk, whereas Bitcoin is is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues. Analysts at the bank like buying BTC/USD on a dip under USD60K This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of England’s Pill: I do not think the level of interest rates is having more than a marginal impact on UK business investment. This follows on from earlier comments from Pill here and here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The leadership of Israel is being pushed and pulled in both directions. As the FT report highlighted, the US might not feel it has control of Netanyahu. For what it’s worth, former Trump advisor and uberhawk John Bolton is out saying he thinks Israel will hit hard: Israel is not going to heed the Biden

Construction PMI 57.2 vs 53.3 expected and 53.6 prior. Key findings: Output growth led by steepest rise in civil engineering activity since June 2021.New orders grow at strongest pace for two-and-a- half years.Cost pressures intensify in September. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK construction companies indicated a decisive improvement

Iran leader Khamenei says Muslim nations have a common enemy.Iran leader Khamenei says Muslim nations have to strap the belt of defense from Afghanistan to Yemen, from Iran to Gaza and Lebanon.Iran leader Khamenei says every country has the right to defend itself from aggressors.Iran leader Khamenei says Oct. 7 attack was a legitimate act,

The UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has warned targets will be missed on 2024 EV sales: called on the new Labour government to introduce incentives for private buyers to speed up the switch to EVs calls to halve the tax on new EV purchase for three years for private customers and reduce

A note from Commerzbank on what is expected from the European Central Bank on October 17. TLDR is a 25bp rate cut. The analysts argue that the primary driver behind the European Central Bank’s (ECB) current stance is the collapse of eurozone inflation expectations. Market participants recognize that this gives the ECB a solid rationale

Fundamental Overview The JPY lost some more ground this week following Japan’s PM Ishiba’s comments on Wednesday as he delivered dovish remarks. As a reminder, the JPY got a boost last week when he was elected because he was viewed as a hawk and supportive for further rate hikes. It turned out that he’s the

Earlier: Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi – PM Ishiba wants a comprehensive economic packageJapan finance minister Kato wants to boost support for low-income households Japan’s economy minister Akazawa now, says aims to overcome deflation under Ishiba’s leadership says he is carefully considering gas subsidies situationno change in interpretation of govmt – BOJ accord taregetting 2%

NHC says Kirk remains a large and powerful major hurricane, large swells from Kirk could reach the U.S. East Coast by Sunday.NHC says Hurricane Kirk about 1655 mi (2665 km) southwest of the Azores; maximum sustained winds 145 mph (230 km/h). This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

U.S., South Korea tentatively reach deal on defense cost sharing plan – Yonhap.United States and Republic of Korea have reached consensus on proposed text of a new five-year Special Measures Agreement. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Markets trade fairly stable on the risk sentiment side so far today. Usually in the run up to big events like today’s NFP it’s not uncommon to see markets trading more choppy or rangebound or muted. Also, there could be a bunch of different types of flows ranging from profit taking, pre-positioning and hedging flows

Dock workers have agreed to suspend strike activity to January 15 There are conflicting reports but it is clear that workers have returned to their jobs. AP reports that the union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports has reached a deal to suspend their strike until January 15 to provide

Home loans data from Australia more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has been consolidating in up and down trading this week. The high price was reached on Tuesday at $2673.14. That was just above the all-time high close was reached last Thursday at $2672.03. The low price this week was reached on Monday at $2624.82. The current prices trading at $2657.96. Looking at the hourly

Obama to campaign for Harris in month leading up to election – Washington Post. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

A TV documentary maker has said he has found Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, which is the fake name used by the creator of Bitcoin. The name will be revealed in a new HBO documentary, set to air Wednesday October 9 at 9 p.m. US Eastern time Politico with the heads up, adding: Intriguingly, as the date

Japan PM Ishiba on the wires Japanese PM Ishiba says beating deflation is the top economic priority and we will seek economic growth as the basis of fiscal healthWill compile economic package as soon as possible to help cushion blow to households from rising costs.Says will seek ties with like-minded nations to supplement US alliance

Full Story on PiQ Suite Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba formally instructed his ministers on Friday to compile a fresh economic package to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs, as the new government makes its top priority an exit from deflation. “We would need to support people suffering from rising costs right

The @Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks Mixed Ahead of US NFP, US Dock Workers End Strike APAC stocks traded mixed amid light pertinent catalysts for the region ahead of the latest US NFP report.US dock workers have agreed a deal to end their current strike action.European equity futures are indicative of a marginally positive

Bank of England’s Pill says ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence.Bank of England’s Pill says need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction.BOE’s Pill says further cuts in bank rate remain in prospect but it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting

The major indices are closing lower on the day with the Dow and the Russell 2000 doing the worst ahead of the US jobs report tomorrow. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -184.73 points or -0.44% at 42011.59S&P index -9.60 points or -0.17% and 5699.94NASDAQ index -6.65 points or -0.04% and 17918.48 The

While the USDCHF pushes the topside of the “Red Box” today that has confined the pair going back to August 20, the EURCHF is mired within its own confined range. Apart for a time period between April 10 and April 11, the price of the EURCHF has been confined to a range between 0.9332 and

The European session today is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. The main event will be the US NFP report in the American session. We will also hear from Fed’s Williams after the US jobs report, so that’s going to be interesting. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US

JPMorgan analysts see gold and Bitcoin as beneficiaries of uncertainty in regular financial markets, citing rising geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming U.S. election. JPMorgan say gold and BTC will benefit from this “debasement trade”. On gold, JPM says the price move has already “gone well beyond the moves implied by dollar and real bond yield

My earlier post is here, while the news was not overly clear – trying to get the info out quick: US dock workers agree to return to work – postpone strike action Adding in some more detail now via various news outlets dock workers and port operators have reached a tentative deal ending a three-day

US non-farm payrolls data – the critical key ranges for estimates to watchJP Morgan favour gold and Bitcoin – the “debasement” tradeHeads up for ECB speakers on Friday – Buch, Escriva, Centeno, de GuindosStandard Chartered says Bitcoin not a safe haven against geopolitical risk – gold isBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak

Earlier: Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi – PM Ishiba wants a comprehensive economic package Japan’s new finance minister is given a heads up outline on some of the measures that’ll be included: focus on price reliefmeasures to boost economic growthassistance for low income households JPY is catching a bit of a bid on this, the

All the previews I have been posting of the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, on October 9, are exp[ecting a 50bp rate cut: RBNZ preview – most likely cut the cash rate by 50bps next week, and again in NovemberANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest

Wall Street Journal with the update, citing “people familiar with the matter”. In brief: U.S. port employers are preparing an almost 62% pay increase to get striking dockworkers back to workoffer is an increase from an earlier proposed raise of 50%offer would raise the base hourly rate for ILA port workers from $39 to $63

Goldman Sachs are estimating that headline nonfarm payrolls rose 165k in September. From the note, in brief: On net, Big Data indicators indicate a pace of job creation above the recent payrolls trend. We assume above-trend (albeit moderating) contributions from the recent surge in immigration and catch-up hiring. We suspect August payroll growth will be

This info comes via eFX. **** Synopsis: CIBC projects the Australian dollar (AUD) to strengthen against the US dollar (USD) and face limited upside against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the fourth quarter. This outlook is influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) shift to a more neutral stance, stronger AUD performance due

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

More on the big reveal is here: Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified – will be revealed in a TV show! Checking out BTC/USD, not a lot changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

0755 GMT / 0355 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speech at the annual conference of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales Topic will be of interest to traders: What’s next for the UK economy? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US September ISM services 54.9 vs 51.7 expectedUS factory orders for August -0.2% versus 0.0% expectedUS September final S&P Global Services PMI 55.2 vs 55.4 prelimCanada S&P Global services PMI falls to six-month low, employment dropsG7 statement: We unequivocally reiterate our commitment to security of IsraelIsraeli media & Sky New Arabia is repeating that an

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $73.71. That is up $3.61 or 5.15%. The high price reached $73.92. The low price today reached $70.56. Looking at the daily chart above, the price is trading at the highest level since September 3, and above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the

The EURUSD has been trending to the downside this wee. Recall from Monday trade, the high price extended above Friday’s high but not Wednesday’s high. It did move above the double top going back to August 23 and August 26 (see red numbered circles and topside yellow area). Since then the price has been stepping

Consensus estimate +140K Estimate range +70K (Citi) to +220K (Jeffries)August was +142K Private consensus +125K versus +118K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% versus 4.2% priorPrior participation rate 62.7%Prior underemployment U6 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.8% versus +3.8% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus 34.3 prior

Some analysis by my dear friend, ForexLive contributor and all-round gent, Arno Venter… GBP post-Bailey’s comments LINK – Bank of England Governor talks “bit more aggressive” interest rate cuts BoE comments from today playing catch up with the overall trend in economic data surprises over the past few weeks? Sizeable reaction in Sterling compared to

Prior week 218K (revised to 219K)I4- week moving average initial jobless 224.5K vs 224.75KContinuing claims 1.826M vs 1.832M expected. Prior continuing claims 1.834M (revised to 1.827M)4-week moving average continuing claims 1.829M versus 1.836M last week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Final Services PMI 52.4 vs. 52.8 expected and 53.7 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.6 vs. 52.9 expected and 53.8 prior. Key findings: Business activity growth eases to three-month low in September. Robust order books underpin positive business expectations for the year ahead. Prices charged inflation slows for third month in a row. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics

This is an odd thing to say because Israel isn’t likely to pre-announce an attack like Iran did. But I think you have to take him at his word because Israel now going and attacking today would make Biden look foolish. Oil is up $1.92 to $72.03 today as the market worries that Israel will

Eyes are on the US jobs market as the Fed tries to keep unemployment from rising above 4.4%. Some highlights of the Challenger report: September job cuts up 53% y/y, but down slightly from AugustLayoffs 69% above pre-COVID average in September, improving from 81% in AugustRegional shifts: West cools, East surges in job cutsTech sector

Dockworkers strike was predicted, retailers have been stockpilingRetailers have about two weeks of extra inventory, there will be an effect afterwardsDockworkers strike could have supply-chain effects, that could mean some increase in pricesWe’ve largely gotten inflation downThe new inflation numbers are at the Fed’s target, the labor market is at full employment25 vs 50 bps

In this video, I take a look at 2 of the commodity pairs from the Asia-Pacific area. Both the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD are trading lower today breaking support targets on the way, but each is also reaching support targets and finding some buyers against the levels. What next for each? NZDUSD: The downside in

The preliminary readings for September are here: Australia preliminary Sept PMI: Manufacturing 46.7 (prior 48.5) Services 50.6 (prior 52.5) Finals are, services 50.5 composite 49.6 In brief from the report: Final September PMI confirms sluggish economic growth, similar to Flash release.Services sector continues expanding, increasing staffing, but at a slower pace than early 2024.Business cost

Final Services PMI 50.6 vs. 50.6 expected and 51.2 prior.Final Composite PMI 47.5 vs. 47.2 expected and 48.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 50.6 (Aug: 51.2). 6-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 47.5 (Aug: 48.4). 7-month low. Growth expectations slump to lowest in a year. Comment:

Reuters is out with its latest secondary sources survey of OPEC oil output and it has production down 290k barrels per day in the month to 26.14 mbpd. Libyan output was down 300k bpd with the remainder of the bloc producing an additional 10k bpd. The survey also found that Iraq was still pumping 90k

Services 53.1 (prior was 53.7) Composite 52.0 (prior 52.9) Preliminary is here: Japan Jibun preliminary Sep PMIs: Manufacturing 49.6 (prior 49.8) Services 53.9 (53.7) The key points from the report: Business activity and new order growth sustained Outstanding business rises for second time in three months Confidence remains strong but eases to 20-month low In

Business activity index 59.9 vs 53.3 priorEmployment 48.1 vs 50.2 prior (lowest since June)New orders 59.4 vs 53.0 prior (highest since Feb 2023)Prices paid 59.4 vs 57.3 prior (highest since Jan)Supplier deliveries 52.1 vs 49.6 priorInventories 58.1 vs 52.9 priorBacklog of orders 48.3 vs 43.7 priorNew export orders 56.7 vs 50.9 priorImports 52.7 vs 50.3

US major indices close marginally higherGoldman Sachs: Be careful with USD shorts, EUR/USD could head to 1.0950Barkin Q&A: ‘Last mile’ of inflation may still take longer than expectedUS crude oil futures settles at $70.10Ray Dalio: China policy makers need to do a lot more than what was announcedOPEC calls out the Wall Street JournalECB’s De

Prior was 55.7 (best in two years)Prelim was 55.4Composite vs 54.4 prelim This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US did not urge Israel to not retaliate like they did no April. but the US did say that they did not condone a strike of Iranian nuclear facilities as a caveat. Meanwhile Isreal is continuing their assault in Beirut, Lebanon and targetting Hezbollah strongholds and leadership. The Pentagon is saying that Israeli preparations

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian – Bailey held out the prospect of the Bank becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good. Full Story He also hit back at claims by the former prime minister Liz Truss that the Bank of England was

The price of crude oil has moved higher today and is breaking above a double top on the hourly chart as well as the 50% midpoint of the move down from the August 13 high. Those levels come in at $72.36 and $72.67 respectively. The break higher took the price up toward the $74 level

MUFG has revised its outlook for the Bank of England (BoE), now expecting back-to-back rate cuts before year-end. This adjustment reflects growing evidence of decelerating economic growth in the UK. Key Points: Recent sentiment indicators, including the GfK consumer confidence index, PMIs, CBI Orders index, and the Lloyds Business Barometer, are showing a downward trend,

Italy to ask companies, including defense companies to contribute to budgetSays will require sacrifice from all Italy is trying to tax its way to prosperity. We’ll wait for details but that’s not a good sign for Italian stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

An ICYMI from Axios: Israeli officials staring down all-out regional war tell Axios Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Tuesday’s massive missile attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites. Here is the link for more. We had the heads up on all this way back earlier

As the US session gets started the EURUSD and USDJPY are consolidating the recent moves (lower for the EURUSD and higher for the USDJPY). The GBPUSD is sharply lower after BOE’s Bailey signalled the central bank may be more aggressive with easing. In the kickstart video, I take a look at each of those currency

If you have been reading or watching my videos, I have been harping on the up-and-down trading range in the USDCHF with 0.83996 as the floor and 0.85368 as the ceiling. Today, the price moved higher after weaker CPI data in Switzerland. The price high reached up to your .85371 just above the upside target

Japan’s Finance Minister Kato has been on the wires.. Specifics Of Monetary Policy Should Be Left To BoJ Ishiba’s Comments Are Based On BoJ’s Explanation Important That FX Moves In Stable Manner, Reflecting Fundamentals Watching Currency Moves With Sense Of UrgencyWill Communicate Thoroughly With Markets via LiveSquawk This article was written by Ryan Paisey at

The President said the the US is discussing Israel striking Iran oil facilities, according to Bloomberg. There is some important nuance in this statement: Biden was asked if he would support the US supporting Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities. Biden responded: We are discussing that. So it sounds to me like they are discussing whether

Headlines via the terminal LIBYA TO RESUME OIL PRODUCTION TODAY SAYS OIL MINISTER LIBYA’S LARGEST OIL FIELD TO TO RESUME OUTPUT THURSDAY Kneejerk lower in crude.As always with Libya info – it’s rarely straightforward, and rarely stays that way for long. This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month: 5.0%Factory orders -0.2% versus 0.0% expectedFactory goods orders ex transportation -0.1% versus +0.4% preliminary. Last month +0.3%Durable Goods orders 0.0% vs 0.0% preliminary. Last month was 9.9%. Durable goods have been up six of the last seven monthsDurable Goods ex transportation 0.5% vs 0.5% preliminary. Last month -0.1%Durable Good ex defense -0.2% versus

S&P 500 futures are down 17 points shortly before today’s open. One stock in focus is Nvidia, which is up 1.8% pre-market. Late yesterday, CEO Jensen Huang said on CNBC that demand for its next-generation Blackwell chips is “insane”. “Everybody wants to be first and everybody wants to have the most,” he said. The company

A report suggested that Italy will bring in a corporate windfall tax, though it’s not yet clear how targeted it will be. Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -1.0%German DAX -0.9%Francis CAC -1.4%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain’s IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -1.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Turkish CPI inflation declines to 49.4% y/y in September Full Story via EmergingMarketWatch PiQ Suite Prices rise by 3% m/m, showing underlying pressuresEducation costs surge due to a spike in tertiary feesHousing costs climb, driven by 7.6% increase in rentsading base effects challenge CBT reaching the inflation target This article was written by Ryan Paisey

The Canadian dollar is forecast to extend its recovery against its U.S. counterpart in the coming year as lower borrowing costs bolster economic growth in Canada and increase investor appetite for risk, a Reuters poll found. Full Story on PiQ Suite Canada’s loonie has rallied by 3.3% since hitting a near two-year low of 1.3946

Long positions pile on Chinese yuan, Asian FX bulls maintain momentum: Reuters poll Full Story Bullish bets on the Chinese yuan strengthened after a bazooka of stimulus measures led to global investors reallocating funds to Asia’s largest economy, while long positions in most other emerging Asian currencies were largely steady, a Reuters poll showed on

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 69 bps (65% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 182 bps ECB: 53 bps (97% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 171 bps BoE: 42 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 155 bps

Mixed signals: Tech edges up while consumer sectors falter The US stock market is sending mixed signals today, with technology stocks finding some traction while consumer sectors face headwinds. Investors navigate a challenging landscape as varied performances emerge across different sectors. 📊 Sector Overview: Technology Gains While Consumer Confidence Dips 🏆 Technology: The technology sector

This is an interesting read from an extended Reuters report on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s home town, Makinohara, struggling with economic disparities, depopulation, rising interest rates, wage increases … and being at risk from vanishing. In Makinohara, the conundrum the BOJ faces in setting policy for a two-speed economy is clear, according to Reuters

The major US stock indices are trading lower at the start of the trading day. Just ahead of the PMI nonmanufacturing data, the: Dow industrial average is down -254.84 points or -0.60% at 41941.68S&P index -13.29 points or -0.23% at 5696.25.NASDAQ index -7.63 points or -0.04% at 17917.49. The Russell 2000 is down -12.54 points

We got the ball rolling on this during Asia yesterday with the new economy minister pressing the dove button: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen loses support from new Japanese economy minister The BOJ and Prime Minister Ishida himself jumped in later: Forexlive European FX news wrap 2 Oct USD/JPY rocketed higher: Wednesday marked one

Snippets from Barclays, in summary: Shorter term we worry the ECB will need to cut more than expected to stabilise the economyseeing only slow growth in the European Union And, not just the ECB that’ll keep cutting, Barclays is bullish US equities despite stocks being near record highs: path of least resistance remains to trade

Tesla to recall over 27,000 Cybertruck vehicles, NHTSA says Full Story on PiQ Suite Tesla is recalling 27,185 Cybertruck vehicles in the U.S. as a delayed rear view image reduces visibility behind the vehicle, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Thursday. This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

THE CATALYST This early morning, in an exclusive interview with The Guardian, BoE’s Governor Bailey said that the central bank could become “a bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good. That was the catalyst for GBP weakness across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much

As the North American session begins the USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. In an interview with the Guardian, BOE Bailey held out the prospect of the Bank becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good. Bailey also talked to the

Fed Speak Primer: Schmid, Bostic and Kashkari scheduled Full Primer via Newssquawk SCHEDULE (BST / EDT) 15:00 / 10:00: Fed’s Schmid (2025 Voter, Neutral) to give opening remarks at a conference 15:40 / 10:40: Fed’s Bostic (2024 Voter, Hawk) and Kashkari (2026 Voter, Hawkish) to speak on “Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and

Services PMI drops to 46.4 from 47.8, signaling accelerating contractionNew business falls at fastest clip since December 2020Employment declines sharply, most since July 2020Inflation pressures ease, but remain elevatedFirms pin hopes on future rate cuts to boost growth Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Canada’s service sector endured a challenging month

Challenger layoffs 72.821K vs 75.891K prior. U.S.-based employers announced 72,821 cuts in September, a 4% decrease from the 75,891 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 53% from the 47,457 cuts announced in the same month in 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger,

BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – September 2024 via Newsquawk Expectations for CPI inflation a year ahead declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations was also 2.6% in the three months to September, and 0.1 percentage points lower than

The AUDUSD moved above a ceiling from June and July 2023 near 0.6900 last week on it’s way to a high near 0.6941. After trying to hold support near the 0.6900 level on Friday, Monday and part of Tuesday, the sellers started to exert more downside momentum falling to a low of 0.68557 in the

Goldman Sachs now sees the SNB delivering more easing following today’s lower than expected inflation data Full Story via Newsquawk on PiQ Suite GS writes given the SNB’s dovish guidance at its September meeting, benign inflation developments, a rise in geopolitical tensions adding further upward pressure to the currency, and Chairman Schlegel’s recent comments emphasizing

Services PMI 57.0 vs 54.0 expected and 54.6 priorComposite PMI 56.3 vs 53.5 prior. Key findings: Uplifts in new business and activity growth signalled. Employment levels raised markedly. Cost inflation down to three-and-a-half year low. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The summer is coming to

The @Newsquawk Fed Speak Primer: Schmid, Bostic and Kashkari scheduledLibya set to restart production from largest oil fieldUS September Challenger layoffs 72.821K vs 75.891K priorCanadian dollar expected to strengthen in 2025 as rate cuts boost economyGoldman Sachs now sees the SNB delivering more easingTesla to recall over 27,000 Cybertruck vehiclesWhy GBP/USD sold off so much

Switzerland CPI (MoM) (Sep) Actual: -0.3% 🔴 Expected: -0.1% Previous: 0.0% (YoY) Actual: 0.8% 🔴 Expected: 1.1% Previous: 1.1% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Eurozone PPI M/M 0.6% vs 0.3% expected and 0.8% prior (revised to 0.7%)Eurozone PPI Y/Y -2.3% vs -2.4% expected and -2.1% prior (revised to -2.2%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Justin is off for a few days. Apparently he is in Tokyo. Like I said yesterday, I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 USD/JPY: 145.00 (US$2.12b), 150.00 (US$1.4b), 144.35 (US$1.2b) EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR2.54b), 1.0550 (EUR1.94b), 1.1060 (EUR1.61b) AUD/USD: 0.6650 (AUD1.11b), 0.6785 (AUD808.9m) USD/CAD: 1.3550 (US$972.6m), 1.3555 (US$359m), 1.3500 (US$330.7m) NZD/USD: 0.6310 (NZD1.4b) GBP/USD: 1.3130 (GBP449.8m), 1.2830

Services PMI 50.5 vs. 51.0 expected and 51.4 prior.Composite PMI 49.7 vs. 50.8 prior. Key findings: Services activity rises marginally and at slowest pace seen in 2024 so far. New business volumes down for second month in a row. Jobs growth sustained. Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg

Deutsche Bank with a note arguing that September marked a significant shift in the global rate-cutting cycle, highlighting the importance of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. With the Federal Reserve now joining the trend, it was expected that other countries would follow suit, reflecting the influence of U.S. monetary policy. DB go on to

Goldman Sachs notes a notable shift in market sentiment regarding widespread short positions in the USD, suggesting caution over how much further USD weakness can persist. Key Points: There is growing caution about the extent of USD weakness driven solely by a reevaluation of Fed and US exceptionalism.The market is currently heavily short on USDs,

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $70.10. That is up $0.27 or 0.39%. The high price today reached $72.45. The low price was at $69.90 Technically, looking at the hourly chart, the high price tested the high price going back to September 24 and rotated back to the downside. That is now

Services PMI 51.4 vs 50.5 expected and 52.9 prior. Composite PMI 49.6 vs 48.9 expected and 51.0 prior. Key findings: HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index at 49.6 (Aug: 51.0). 7-month low. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.4 (Aug: 52.9). 7-month low. First month since December 2023 that contraction is seen in

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Noguchi BOJ board member Noguchi said they must patiently maintain loose monetary conditions.BOJ’s Noguchi stated it will take considerable time for the public to shift to a mindset where inflation can sustainably reach 2%.Noguchi personally believes that the uptrend in consumption is likely to become clearer.Cost pressure from

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks traded mixed, BoE Bailey’s comments move cable lower Full Note APAC stocks traded mixed amid the backdrop of several holiday closures and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while Hong Kong participants booked profits.Fed’s Barkin (2024 voter) said he sees two 25bps cuts this year as “a reasonable path” if the

Services PMI 49.6 vs 48.3 expected and 55.0 prior.Composite PMI 48.6 vs 47.4 expected and 53.1 prior. Key findings: French services economy ends third quarter with marginal contraction. New orders fall slightly and firms make strong dent to backlogs of work. Input cost inflation sinks to 42-month low; output prices unchanged. Comment: Commenting on the

Full Story on PiQ Suite Business activity in Russia’s services sector grew at a slower pace in September amid a weaker rise in demand, a business survey showed on Thursday, with firms also moderating their hiring efforts. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for Russian services fell to 50.5 in September from 52.3 in August,

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY is trading to a new high at 146.47. In doing so, the pair is up testing the high from last Friday at 146.465. Technically, a move above that high with momentum would have traders targeting the tabletop near 147.189 from September 2 and September 3 The move was largely driven earlier in the

MORNING BLAST WITH @PiQSuite AND @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Thurs 3rd Oct. 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Set Reminder Here 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Discover how to apply risk management in forex even as a complete beginner so that you’ll never blow a trading account ever again The post How To Apply Risk Management In Forex (The Complete Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Asia market FX interventionGlobal Rate-Cutting Cycle Shift in September: What Comes Next?Nomura urge a ‘more sober assessment’ on China stimulus rallyVanishing town highlights the challenges faced by famous son, Bank of Japan Governor UedaUSD/JPY off its highs after the latest headline out of JapanJapan PM Ishiba didn’t request any special policy from BOJ Gov Ueda

Australian August trade surplus larger than expected Just posting these numbers, the focus is on comments out the Bank of Japan and the Japanese leadership pertinent to the yen and Nikkie This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$1.74b), 145.75 (US$1.15b) EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR4.06b), 1.1060 (EUR2.37b), 1.1000 (EUR2.04b) AUD/USD: 0.6950 (AUD739.5m), 0.6785 (AUD1.16b) USD/CAD: 1.3550 (US$1.09b) NZD/USD: 0.6310 (NZD1.4b) GBP/USD: 1.3130 (GBP479.8m), 1.3300 (GBP381.1m) USD/CHF: 0.8500 (US$788.6m) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Commerzbank is forecasting USD/JPY bak up to 150. If you are a raging bull on USD/JPY the bad news is analysts at the bank say it’ll hit 150 by the end of 2025. Commerzbank say that the Bank of Japan will complete rate hikes by the end of 2024, and that Japanese inflation will hold

The main event in the European session was the Switzerland CPI which missed expectations by a big margin once again. We will also get the final PMI readings but those are generally not market moving. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Services PMI which are gonna

At 1040 US Eastern time / 1440 GMT, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will moderate a discussion with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Topic will be on an inclusive economyIts at an event organized by the Minneapolis Fed. A Q&A is expected to follow. Kashkari spoke on September 23: Fed’s Kashkari: 50 bps rate cut

Headlines that crossed: BOJ’s Noguchi says must patiently maintain loose monetary conditionsJapan PM Ishiba didn’t request any special policy from BOJ Gov Ueda at Wednesday meeting USD/JPY off its earlier highs: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is down 3% on the session so far, pulling back after its blistering rally in the wake of stimulus announcement s from China last week. Nomura is sounding a note of caution in a note today: “What has happened in the past week has already reminded us about the epic

The September ANZ Commodity Price Index for New Zealand: +1.8% m/m in September In New Zealand dollar terms, the index fell 0.2% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index lifted 1.0%. The index tracks the prices of 17 of New Zealand’s major commodity exports, including dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood. *** As

This is from the comments at this post here: Here’s a forecast for USD/JPY back to 150 – stick a fork in the BOJ, they’re (nearly) done Nice work! ps. The 1980s had loads of the biggest moves ever, if I’m reading the above correctly. They were wild times. This article was written by Eamonn

Bank Indonesia, the Indonesian central bank, has intervened in the forex market to support the rupiah: to ensure the balance of supply and demandsays IDR weakened due to rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East USD/IDR seen around 15,395 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is a cascade of 50bp rate cut calls for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting next week: ANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest rate cut next weekMore on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZHere is another forecast for a

US major indices are closing the day higher with modest changes. The indices moved lower at the start of the trading day with lows reached in the 1st hour of trading. At session lows: Dow industrial average was down 188.18 pointsS&P index was down -34.75 pointsNASDAQ index was down -142.57 points. Highs were reached near

S&P Global Market Intelligence comments were reported in the Wall Street Journal (gated). In brief: many importers and manufacturers pulled forward orders to try to get ahead of the looming East Coast port strike now under way if not resolved soon, the strike could eventually affect the shipping of 40% to 50% of U.S. importsdisruptions

Analysts at KiwiBank title their note: The RBNZ will most likely cut 50bps next week, and again in November. It’s the easiest thing to do. KiwiBank have been well ahead of the curve on projecting 50bpo rate cuts in October and November from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. From their latest: now that a

A snippet via UBS, info conveyed by Reuters overnight. Analysts at the bank are eyeing very weak European Union economic growth data. They say if growth doesn’t pick up the ECB could cut rates to 1 to 1.5%. I posted yesterday on the gaining confidence in the market for an October 17 cut from the

MUFG on GBP, up against the Fed-weakened USD but down against the EUR …. citing quicker Bank of England interest rate cuts as economic growth slows in the UK“Previously we had assumed the first quarter next year would be when the pace of cuts picked up but we have now moved that forward to the

UK-based Alkimi, the world’s first decentralised ad exchange, is excited to announce the appointment of Robert Bradley as Non-Executive Director. Robert brings over 20 years of experience in the media industry, working for the biggest media brands, and leading digital innovation, commercial strategy, and ad tech operations, driving significant revenue growth across global markets. As

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US debt level is a concern in the long termWorried price pressure could get ‘stuck’ next yearSees two further quarter-point cuts this year as a ‘reasonable path’ if economy evolves as expectedExpects unemployment and inflation to stay roughly stable for the rest of this yearSees renewed tight labor and demand spurred by Fed rate cuts

While the trade data from Australia is marked as high priority its unlikely to shift the AUD too much upon release. A low priority calendar overall. Note that mainland China remains on holiday today. Hong Kong markets are open (Stock Connect is not … what is Stock Connect? Check this post out, scroll down a

Ray Dalio posted on LinkedIn on the weekend regarding the latest stimlus push from China. It’s sparked a massive rally (and likely a short squeeze) in Chinese equities. He’s not convinced it’s enough: China’s leadership announced reflationary policies and support for free markets last weekSees this as potentially historic, comparable to Draghi’s “whatever it takes”

There has been some commentary that the door is open for Isreal to retaliate by focusing on the nuclear sites. Pres.Biden is on the wires saying: Does not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.There will be some sanctions imposed on IranSays “Iran is way off course” This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

I’m not sure if it’s the US inventory data that’s weighing on oil or a giveback from Middle East tensions but crude is struggling. OPEC+ didn’t offer anything at the JMMC meeting today but that’s not a surprise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

All options on the table for October decision The market is almost fully priced for a 25 bps ECB cut this month and continuing at at least that pace until next summer. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today is going to be a bit empty on the data front. The only highlights will be the Eurozone unemployment rate and the US ADP report. The Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%, while the US ADP is seen at 120K jobs added vs. 99K in the prior month. We will

There is an interesting war of words unfolding between OPEC and the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ today published an article saying that Saudi’s oil minister warned of $50 oil if cheaters within OPEC don’t stick to limits. They cited delegates who were on the call. The Saudi message was “there is no point in

The buying in the USDJPY has pushed the price through targets at 146.204 and 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August 16 high at 145.639 (see the earlier video on the USDJPY – GO to 4:08 on the video for the start of the analysis of the USDJPY). The price is approaching the

Several reports say OPEC is likely to change compensation cut schedules but that’s hardly a market mover. All eyes are on Israel and Iran at the moment and the potential for an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. Looking at the closing levels; German DAX, -0.33% France’s CAC +0.05%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.17%Spain’s Ibex -0.55%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.28% As London/European traders exit for the day, the US stock indices are in positive territory and trading near highs for the day: Dow industrial average

The USDCAD is waffling up and down in trading today with the current price trading near lows. Yesterday, the price closed below its 100 hour moving average (blue line) and 200 hour MA (green line). That is a bearish tilt technically. Today the 100-hour moving average and 200 hour moving average are near converged at

Inflation has converge closely to ECB’s targetEuro area inflation has been anchored This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Fed Speaker Schedule via @NewsquawkUK Financial System Faces Growing Concerns Amid Global Economic Downturn FearsUnited States MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate – Actual: 6.14% Previous: 6.13%Japan’s PM Ishiba: Not in an environment for additional rate hikeOPEC+ Panel Meeting: No Surprise, Gradual Output Increase ExpectedUS Futures Lower, Dollar Retreats – @Newsquawk Market UpdateAUDUSD Technical Analysis –

I wrote about the main factors driving USD/JPY higher earlier but the move has now extended to 200 pips, including about 80 since the ADP data. Treasury yields are up 3-6 bps across the curve and some are saying that’s because of diminishing fears of Middle East war. I’m not so sure that’s the case.

Richmond Fed Pres. Barton is a speaking The Fed’s 50 basis point cut was warranted as rates were at of St. with declines inflation and unemployment rate near its sustainable levelFed cannot declare inflation battle is overExpect little further drop in core PCE until next yearWatching closely how lower interest rates influence home and auto

ECB’s Schanbel is speaking. Some highlights from her speech: Monetary policy cannot solve structural problemsReturn to 2% target in a timely manner is becoming more and more likely despite elevated services inflation and strong wage growthGrowth in the euro area has become increasingly uneven in recent years.Monetary policy may contribute to rising heterogeneity, but it

The NZDUSD is moving lower, hitting fresh lows for the day, and once again testing yesterday’s low near 0.6263. This level sits below the 38.2% retracement of September’s trading range at 0.62727. Earlier in the day, the price briefly climbed above the 200-hour moving average (at 0.6299), but it couldn’t hold, and sellers took control,

A report says that Israel’s cabinet has decided on a harsh response to Iran’s attack, but it also said the response will not lead to a regional war. That’s a fine line to walk. It also notes that the full decision hasn’t been made yet and that US political considerations will be part of the

ECB cannot exclude or commit to a rate cut in October,There will be more cut, but will depend on the dataDownward trend in inflation is sustainable and will continue This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Full Story on PiQ Suite OPEC+ set to keep output policy unchanged at panel meeting An OPEC+ ministerial panel scheduled to meet on Wednesday is unlikely to recommend any changes to policy, allowing the group to start gradually increasing production from December, two sources from told Reuters. The two sources, who declined to be identified,

Morning Blast with @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Daily – 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Listen via X here This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

There is an interesting risk/reward setup in oil at the moment as it looks like Israel will hit back against Iran. Axios reports: “Israeli officials tell Axios it will launch a “significant retaliation” within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic site” The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been spreading

US TV show “60 Minutes” will air a primetime election special on Monday, October 7, at 8 p.m. US Eastern time. For over 50 years, the program has offered both Democratic and Republican candidates the opportunity to appear as Americans prepare to cast their votes. This year, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President

Wards outlined softer US auto sales in September and Q3. Q3 2024 Highlights: Q3 sales: 3.88M units, down 1.9% from 3.96M in Q3 2023Q3 SAAR: 15.6M units, flat y/y and down from 15.7M in Q2Year-to-date sales through September: 11.69M units, up 1% y/y Hurricane Helene may have cut sales by 100-200K units. I’d also note

Full Story via Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness seen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran conducted a missile attack on Israel.Israeli officials cited by Axios said Israel will launch a strong response within days, which could target oil production facilities inside Iran.European equity futures are indicative of a positive

USD/JPY rose to the best levels of the day after the US ADP employment report beat estimates. Jobs rose by 143K in the month of September compared to 120K expected. USD/JPY broke 145 on the report and is now up 162 pip to 145.18. The broader moves are coming on both sides of the trade.

Full Story on PiQ Suite BoJ’s Ueda has been the wires, with the following headlines landing on the terminal. JAPAN’S ECONOMY RECOVERING MODERATELY ALBEIT WITH SOME WEAK SIGNSTREND INFLATION, WHICH IS LIKELY STILL BELOW 2%, LIKELY TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATEOUTLOOK FOR OVERSEAS ECONOMIES, INCLUDING U.S. ECONOMY, REMAINS UNCERTAINUNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING JAPAN’S ECONOMY, PRICES REMAIN HIGHMUST BE VIGILANT

I’ll monitor for any kind of Q&A. Barkin is scheduled to speak at 12:15 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected and 6.4% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Fed Speaker Schedule via Newsquawk SCHEDULE (BST / EDT) 14:00 / 09:00: Fed’s Hammack (2024 voter, Neutral) to speak at the 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum Text: no, Q&A: no. 15:05 / 10:05: Fed’s Musalem (2025 Voter, Neutral) to speak on “Where Research and Policy Meet”. Text: yes. Q&A: no. 16:00 / 11:00: Fed’s

For a rundown of geopolitical developments on Tuesday: Forexlive European FX news wrap: The US Dollar adds to yesterday’s gainsForexlive Americas FX news wrap: Iran hits Israel with missile attack The significant escalation sent oil prices higher. Brent has traded up near $74.50 during Asia time. Its going on towards 5 am in Israel and

Prior was +99K (revised to +103K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.7% vs 4.8% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 6.6% vs 7.3% priorServices +101K vs +72K priorGoods +42K vs +27K priorThere was strength in construction, education and leisure/hospitality USD/JPY is at the highs of the day after this report, breaking 145.00 and up nearly 150 pips on the

The major US stock indices are lower in early US trading as the markets digest geopolitical risks (Iran and Isreal), the US port strike and the implications, stronger ADP employment, and Fed policy. Israel and Iran are on the precipice of a bigger conflict with some saying this is the opportunity to take out some

The analysts consensus for Q3 deliveries was 463,310 but the whisper number was 472K based on VIN numbers. Tesla reported deliveries of 443,956 and production of 410,831 for Q2. The likely bigger market mover for Tesla will be the robotaxi event on October 10 and shares have risen 20% in the past month in anticipation.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap highlights a pronounced divergence in sector performance. The energy sector stands out, exhibiting robust gains, driven by Exxon Mobil (XOM), which is up by 1.53%. This surge is likely attributed to rising oil prices and increased demand expectations. On the contrary, the healthcare sector is under pressure, with major

The kickstart video for October 2, takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The ADP jobs report came in stronger than expected and that has the USD moving a touch although the EURUSD and GBPUSD is consolidating and looking for the next shove. The USDJPY is moving higher. EURUSD: The EURUSD fell

Crude oil inventories +3889K vs -1250K expGasoline inventories +1119K vs +450K expDistillates inventories -1284K vs -1400K expRefinery utilization -3.3% versus expectations of -0.5%. Previously -1.2% I wonder if there isn’t some kind of skew here due to hurricane preparations. The private oil data showed a decent draw and a bigger draw in distillates. This article

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed to start the day. The newest “day after” is the day after the Iran attack on Isreal. The question now is what, if any, is the response? Will Isreal target more important Iranian strategic sites?

Full Story on PiQ Suite Worries about risks to the UK financial system posed by a global economic downturn have risen sharply to their highest level since the second half of 2019, a Bank of England (BOE) survey showed on Wednesday. The Bank’s twice-yearly systemic risk survey polled 55 financial firms between July 23 and

The USDCHF has broken to the upside today at 18 price moved above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart had 0.8486. Recall from last week the high price for the week stalled right near that moving average and found willing sellers. Breaking above today is a technical shift to the upside. It

Full Story via EMW on PiQ Suite South Korean CPI inflation eases to 1.6% y/y in September on falling transport prices Core CPI rises by 1.8% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y in August Fresh food prices stabilize at low 3% y/y growth CPI print increases odds that BOK will ease in October meeting CPI inflation

Full story via PiQ Suite President Joe Biden’s administration heaped pressure on U.S. port employers to raise their offer to secure a labor deal with dockworkers on strike for a second day on Wednesday, choking half the country’s ocean shipping. The strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) union has blocked everything from food to

Risks to growth are still tilted to the downside.Economic recovery is to strengthen over time. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Not in an environment for additional rate hike.I want to coordinate with the BoJ on the economy.I want to make the economy strong with an economic package.We will do all we can to overcome deflation.I expect the BoJ to conduct policy to exit from deflation based on 2013 accords.I expect the monetary easing trend to

Federal Reserve speakers Wednesday include Barkin, Hammack, Musalem and BowmanANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest rate cut next weekJapan’s Eco Min says not necessarily correct that Ishiba positive about further rate hikesMainland China is on holiday, leaves Hong Kong to ramp shares even higherSouth Korea promises bold,

Looking at the S&P 500 index, it is down by -59.03 pointer -1.02% at 5702.88 . The low price for the day extended to 5681.28. The high price is at 5757.73. On the downside, the rising 100-hour moving average comes in at 5675.06. So the low price at 5681.28, got within about six points of

via the ECB’s website – ECB’s Lane has released a slide deck titled “Expectations and Monetary Policy” LINK As the the fine fellas at Newsquawk have noted, it’s very hard to infer much here given we are yet to hear any comment from Lane on this.All a bit random. This article was written by Ryan

Full Story on PiQ Suite The idea of an “Asian NATO” floated by Japan’s new prime minister is one to consider in the mid- to long-term but not imminent, the new foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, said on Wednesday. Asian nations have expressed skepticism and reticence in response to the call from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba,

The runway at Miyazaki airport in southwest Japan was closed Wednesday after an explosion was reported, local authorities said. The runway closure has led to the suspension of all Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways flights to and from the airport, according to the airlines. Local firefighters said they received a report at around 8:10

via PiQ Suite Citi has joined a growing number of banks in expecting the ECB to cut policy rates by 25 bps in OctoberExpects ECB to cut rates in October, December and through the start of 2025, to reach a deposit rate of 1.5% by September 2025Given recent comms from Lagarde, a 25 bps cut

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Latest U.S. Mortgage Data: 30-Year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.14% Previous: 6.13%Mortgage Applications (WoW) Actual: -1.3% Previous: 11.0%Mortgage Market IndexActual: 292.3 Previous: 296.1Purchase Index Actual: 149.3 Previous: 148.2Mortgage Refinance IndexActual: 1,099.5 Previous: 1,132.9 This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Not a lot of substance on the economy from either of these two. My expectation of anything substantive was basically zdero. That was delivered. I posted a bit of a preview via BMO here: the market appears more focused on the immediate implications of the Middle Eastern conflict and the upcoming employment data Yep. This

OPEC+ members not sticking to their agreed quotas??? No Sh*t!!A story as old as the cartel itself. Kingdom called out members for overproducing, in what was seen as a veiled threat of a price war The Saudi oil minister has said that prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if so-called cheaters

Always a ‘must read’ from the lads at Newsquawk LINK TO FULL NOTE Summary – European bourses are generally on a firmer footing whilst US futures are modestly lower with slight underperformance in the RTYDollar is flat unable to continue the prior day’s geopolitical-indued gains, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY around 144.25USTs are flat and Bunds

South Korean Vice Finance Minister: Will take immediate, bold measures if market volatility heightens excessively No further details at this stage. Earlier in the session were encouraging inflation data from South Korea: South Korean September consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since February 2021 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Info comes via Reuters report. South Korea September consumer price index +1.6% y/y (Reuters poll +1.9%) +0.1% m/m (Reuters poll +0.3%)Core CPI +2.0% y/y vs +2.1% in AugustSeptember consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since February 2021Core CPI marks slowest rise y/y since November 2021 South Korean finance minister remarkson the lower inflation data,

Full Story on PiQ Suite Global asset prices remain stretched and are vulnerable to a big fall as investors grow more concerned about geopolitical risks, the Bank of England said on Wednesday. The BoE said overall risks to British financial stability were unchanged compared with its last assessment in June, but that it would be

Full Story on PiQ SuiteJapan’s central bank must be vigilant to fallout from unstable markets and global uncertainties, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, sharpening the focus on the need to bolster economic recovery and for caution on raising rates. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Tuesday urged the BOJ to maintain loose

Full Story on PiQ Suite The dollar held onto its biggest gains in a week on Wednesday after an Iranian missile attack on Israel drove the buying of safe haven assets as investors fretted about the widening of conflict in the Middle East. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.1069, following its

Full Story on Newsquawk IRAN’S MISSILE ATTACK ON ISRAEL: Iran’s IRGC launched nearly 200 missiles towards Israel, targeting military bases and civilians. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they targeted three Israeli military bases in a missile attack and used hypersonic ‘Fattah’ missiles in the Israeli attack, according to state TV. The attack was in retaliation for

Japan’s newly appointed Economy Minister Akazawa hasn’t learnt about FX volatility yet! Says not necessarily correct that Prime Minister Ishiba positive about further rate hikes complete exit from deflation is top prioritysays Bank of Japan should be careful about raising rates given it takes time to completely exit deflationIshiba’s comments on need for monetary policy

Crude oil futures are settling at $69.83. That’s up $1.66 or 2.44%. The high price extended to $71.91. The low price that $66.36. Iran launched missiles at Israel, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Israel intercepted most of the missiles, easing immediate concerns. Meanwhile, Israel intensified airstrikes on Hezbollah, killing its leader, and

A BMO note previews the debate coming up between Vance and Walz. I popped this up earlier: Tune in for the Vance vs. Walz debate at 2100 US Eastern time (0100 GMT) In the note BMO say that given the unpredictability of this election cycle, the debate is expected to draw significant attention, and that

Full Story via PiQ Suite Futures in Japan face hangover from BoJ’s bond-buying binge Japan’s $9 trillion bond market is bracing for disruption as a shortage of paper caused by the central bank’s massive buying is expected to hit the settlement of derivatives used by investors and the dealers who underwrite the nation’s debt sales.

Goldman Sachs note on the US port strike, in summary: estimate that a 10-day full shutdown of East Coast and Gulf Coast ports would result in a 0.2pp hit to quarterly annualized GDP growth in Q4Most transportation-industry strikes since 2000 have lasted less than 2 weeks. In order to weigh on October payrolls, the strike

Mainland China is off on holiday until Tuesday October 8. Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect is closed until then too. Hong Kong is going it alone though, with stocks ramping stunningly higher yet again today. The moves are in response to all the stimulus announced from China last week. Earlier: China is on holidays –

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Outside of the US these two are little known. On the Democrats side, Kamala Harris’s running mate is Tim Walz former high school teacher and football coachfirst elected to Congress in 2006, representing a rural district in Minnesotaquit Congress in 2019 to become the state’s governorknown as ‘Coach’ Walz On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s

I posted earlier on the cascade of calls coming in for a 50bp interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the meeting on October 9. More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZHere is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ

US east coast port workers are on strike: nearly 45,000 workers are out on strikeas far north as Maine to as far south as Texas However, west coast ports are still open and rockin’ business. Via NBC in LA: Ports in California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and British Columbia are unionized under the “International Longshore and

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus

This comes via Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated). In brief: The mines in Spruce Pine, N.C., about an hour outside of Asheville, produce a unique kind of high-purity quartz used in semiconductor manufacturing. The town is the only place in the world where the uniquely high-quality mineral can be found in such large quantities

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower as geopolitical concerns weigh on the market sentiment. Iran’s missile attack on Israel seemed to be a choreographed theatrical performance but was real and that often leads to a knee-jerk reaction to the downside. Apple expectations for iPhone sales also were a drag. The number of

Forecasts of a 50bp interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on October 9 are piling up: More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ Here is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ next week HSBC, too, are calling for a

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 1300/0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack gives welcome remarks before the 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 1405/1005 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference

The J.P.Morgan / S&P Global Market Global Manufacturing PMI was published overnight Tuesday, coming in at 48.8 in September. Output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases all fell, contributing to the contraction.Suppliers’ delivery times were the only component making a positive contribution.Manufacturing production decreased for the first time in 2024 due to reduced new

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.3 mn barrelsDistillates -1.5 mn bblsGasoline -0.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Justin is off for a few days. I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 For the 10am New York cut today, Wednesday, October 2, 2024: USD/JPY 144.00 (USD832m), 139.00 (USD560m) EUR/USD 1.1025 (EUR2.11b), 1.1125 (EUR1.48b), 1.1100 (EUR1.21b) AUD/USD 0.6950 (AUD495m), 0.6800 (AUD480m) USD/CAD 1.3500 (USD487.8m) NZD/USD 0.6300 (NZD638m), 0.6230 (NZD582m) USD/CNY 7.1100 (USD400m) For more information

Via a Goldman Sachs note, analysts there say all the excitement over Chinese stimulus measures is a tad misplaced, they only expect a 40bp boost to GDP. There is no doubting the impact on sentiment, Chinese equities exploded higher right through until the holidays started on Tuesday (China reopens on October 8 – its long

I posted yesterday on the 50bp rate cut projection from BNZ: More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ Westpac NZ too, has lowered its projections for the Official Cash Rate (OCR), now anticipating 50 basis point cuts in both October and November. According to the latest analysis from

The arrow highlights when the first reports of Iran attacks hit and now AUD/USD has recouped a bit more than half of the drop. There are no reports of casualties in Israel following the attacks, though information is limited. For now, the market is taking a breather. The S&P 500 has trimmed the decline to

Lagarde spoke on Monday, expressing confidence on dropping inflation and that the Bank would not wait until the target is hit before cutting again. The Wall Street Journal (gated) gather together a few analysts now locking in an October 17 rate cut: “Anything other than an October cut will now be difficult to justify,” said

There are post-attack highs ongoing in cable, the euro and commodity currencies. There is less enthusiasm in stocks, with the S&P 500 stalled and still down 38 points. The market is steadily recovering after the attacks and so far the market is tentatively-optimistic that escalation can be contained. Cable is still in a big hole

UBS gold forecasts from a note on rising conflict in the Middle East: end of 2024 forecast is to USD 2,750by Q4 2025 to USD 2,900 In brief from the note: anticipate that global markets will face occasional disruptions but do not foresee a full-scale conflict between Israel and Iranexpect energy flows from the Middle

A second round of Iranian missiles is on the wayIsraeli military says 10M civilians were targeted by the missilesIsraeli finance minister says Iran will regret this moment as it regretted Gaza, Hezbollah, and the state of LebanonHeavy gunfire continues in Beirut Iran says they launched tens of missiles to Israel. Israel will be targeted once

The Iranian bombs have stopped falling and so has the stock indices. The Dow industrial average is trading down as much as -384.52 points. It is currently down only 54 points or -0.12%.The S&P index traded down as much as 81.20 points. Is currently down -38.93 points or -0.67%.The NASDAQ index traded down as much

Missiles have been launched from Iran toward Israel. Missiles entering airspace in TelAvivIran says its response to Israel has been carried outIDF spokesperson: We will respond to Iranian missiles at the appropriate time and placeUS September ISM manufacturing index 47.2 vs 47.5 expectedUS August construction spending -0.1% vs +0.1% expectedUS Sept S&P Global final manufacturing

An Israel Defense Force spokesman says that the Air Force will carry out “powerful airstrikes” tonight, throughout the Middle East I’d be careful with this for now as some of the reports say decisions about such attacks will be taken tonight. Lending credence to the report is that Iran has cancelled all flights until 10

Prior was -7.7Revenue index +10.1 vs +8.7 prior (highest in 13 months)Employment +2.0 vs +0.6 priorCompany outlook +1.2 vs -3.1 priorSix month index +17.4vs +12.4 prior Comments in the report: Utilities I feel the economy is getting better. Professional, scientific and technical services Our employees are very overworked. We have had a very difficult time

Data is here: Australian August retail sales +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4%) The Australian Bureau of Statistics have slotted in a ready made narrative: “Retail spending was boosted this month by warmer-than-usual weather for this time of year. “This year was the warmest August on record since 1910, which saw more spending on items typically purchased

There are no additional threats at this timeMany missiles were intercepted, there were some strikesThis attack was serious and will have consequencesWe are not aware of any casualtiesWe have plans. We will act at the time and place of our choosing There are some reports saying the response will be different to the one in

Iran’s mission to the UN has posted a statement. It’s similar to the one posted after the April attack and appears to be aimed at de-escalation: Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime—which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic

The GBPUSD downside has continued with the price breaking below its 38.2% retracement of the September trading range at 1.3268 and has move down to test the rising 100 bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 1.3243. The low price just reached 1.3244.For the EURUSD, the price is falling below a swing area between

WTI crude is up 5% and flirting with the highest levels in a month after Iranian strikes on Israel. So far there are no reports of casualties (though it’s early) and it appears Iran is done. However there are many videos circulating online of the missiles striking targets. The question now is: How will Israel

As the NA session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is stronger a day after Fed Chair Powell tapped the brakes saying that two 25 basis point cuts were likely if the trends continue. Powell indicated that monetary policy will gradually move toward a neutral stance if

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. Thread to post financial markets trading ideas – Post ’em if ya got ’em! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The yen has a strong bid and risk assets are slumping after an Axios report suggested the White House believes that Iran is preparing to launch missiles at Israel. AUD/JPY highlights the move: The S&P 500 is also down 40 points and Treasury yields are down 10 bps at the long end. More on the

The AUDUSD and the NZDUSD are both lower as risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions hurt what has been a bullish bias in the pairs. The AUDUSD reached the highest level for the year yesterday forming a double top in the process (going back to February 2023). The double top, did give sellers the go-ahead to

There has been another hiccup in risk trades in the past few minutes, though less so in bonds. It could be that some fresh details are crossing on Iran’s plans to strike imminently. The first is from the Israeli media and says: Three Israeli officials quoted anonymously by the NYT say that Iran would likely

The info from the Bank of Japan this morning is here: Bank of Japan September meeting ‘Summary of opinions’ there were signs on the day of the meeting of the Bank being cautious on further rate hikles due to market volatility. So the Summary expressing the same is not fresh news. Its been enough to

Have respect for all exporters, I know the strong Frank makes situation difficult for them.The main problem first was exporters is the lower demand abroad.Last week we did not rule out further interest rate cuts.Cannot rule out any measures, but nobody likes negative interest rates.The SNB cannot rule out negative interest rates. We rule nothing

Israeli military is announcing: Assassinates Mohammed Jaafar Qasir, the commander in charge of weapons transfer from Iran and its affiliates to Hezbollah. The surgically planned weakening of Hezbollah is continuing and will continue. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A difficult start does not always lead to a dismal end, especially in the markets. September started on a bleak note, but by the end of the month, the indices had performed surprisingly well. To clarify, they stumbled after hearing that the manufacturing sector had declined for the fifth month, along with disappointing labor market

Final Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. 51.5 expected and 52.5 prior. Key findings: Growth of output and new orders ease slightly. Business confidence down to nine-month low. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The UK manufacturing sector is still expanding at a solid, albeit slightly slower, pace. Output rose for the fifth successive

Prior month 7.673M revised to 7.711MJob openings 8.040M. Vacancy rate 4.8% versus 4.6% last month Quits rate 1.9% versus 2.0% last month (revised from 2.1%)Separations rate 3.1% versus 3.2% last month Details: 1.3 million fewer openings than the previous year Increases in construction (+138,000) and local government (+78,000) job openings Decrease in other services (-93,000)

ECBs Kazaks says The European Central Bank (ECB) has a “clear-cut” case for cutting interest rates at its next meeting, as the euro zone’s economy nears a tipping pointInvestors have already priced in a rate cut for the ECB’s October 17 meeting, driven by lower-than-expected inflation and growth data, and messaging from ECB officials like

Euro falls to fresh lows on the dayEurozone September preliminary CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expectedUK September final manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. 51.5 prelimECB’s Rehn: The scale is tipping towards a rate cut in OctoberUS, China reportedly set to hold talks on trade and economic tiesECB’s Rehn: Direction of monetary policy is clearEurozone September final

Missiles have been launched from a brand toward Israel.The 2nd wave grants missiles will reach Israel in about 75 minutesIran is expected to launch 242 250 missiles in two ways at four targets in Israel, including Mossad HQ and three airbases (as per ABC News) The script is playing out. The question is how successful

Sky News Arabia is out with a report that Iran informed “international parties” of the scale and timing of its anticipated attack on Israel, citing a US Department of Defense official. Well that pretty much confirms that this is all theatre. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.8%Whole milk prices +3.0% NZD/USD is down 67 pips today or 1.1% to 0.6281. Yesterday it touched the highest in over a year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche is the latest to revise their call and sees the ECB cutting rates in October now. However, they’re going a little further than others in factoring in the potential for a 50 bps rate cut in December. The firm says that it could be a close call if recent weaker growth and inflation trends

Prior 45.8 The manufacturing sector woes continue in the euro area, largely thanks to Germany. The region’s backbone continues to see its industry suffer and that is weighing further on overall sentiment. Both new orders and output were seen declining at their fastest pace for the year, highlighting the issues plaguing the Eurozone at the

Manufacturing PMI 53.0 vs. 50.2 expected and 50.5 prior. Key findings: Solid gains in both output and new orders signalled. Return to growth in employment. First cut in output charges since April. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Spain is and remains the outlier among the

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% European indices ended September trading on a softer note but there is some light optimism early in the day here. The overall risk mood is more mixed though as US futures are down marginally by 0.1% currently. So, the changes are light and there will be US data

The GDP tracker was boosted in the prior release but it’s been reeled back in. “After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth

The pressure is back on the euro now as traders are rebuffing expectations for a rate cut by the ECB in October. That comes after Rehn was out saying that the scale is tipping towards that now, at least in his view. It’s the first sign of any ECB policymaker confirming the recent shift in

Hopes AI will serve as a counterweight to inflationProductivity improvements from AI will come with long and variable lags I think markets continue to underestimate the macro impacts of AI and robotics. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is moving to a new low an din the process is moving further away from swing area above between 1.33308 and 1.33393. On the downside, the 38.2% is the next key target for traders which comes in at 1.32683. Below that and the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.8% The readings are as expected with headline annual inflation ticking below 2% for the first time since 2021. That said, core annual inflation only eased ever so slightly to 2.7%. So, that’s still the bigger focus with services inflation continuing to sit higher mostly. But all

Prior month -0.3%Seasonally adjusted annual rate $2,131.9 billion vs $2,162.7 billion priorConstruction spending +4.1% y/y in AugustPrivate construction -0.2% m/mPublic construction +0.3% m/mResidential -0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/yNonresidential +0.1% m/m, +5.2% y/y Construction spending dipped slightly in August but remains solidly higher compared to last year. The housing sector continues to face headwinds, while nonresidential and

The report is via China’s Xinhua news agency, which says that China commerce minister Wang Wentao will be holding a call with his US counterpart some time in the near future. The call is said to involve discussing trade and economic ties, according to people familiar with the matter. At this stage, any developments regarding

Prior 43.9 There is a slight revision higher to the initial estimate but it still points to a downturn in France’s industrial sector at the end of Q3. Both output and new orders continue to show deep declines but at least the pace of that is easing. HCOB notes that: “The French industrial sector remains

Yeah, that’s usually the reason central banks cut rates. The services sector is solid and the industrial sector subduedExpect Swiss growth to be subdued in coming quarters This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

First reading above 50 since April 2023Prior was 49.5New orders increase slightly, but export orders continue to declineInput cost inflation accelerates to 17-month highOutput nearly stabilizes, employment rises marginallyFirms more optimistic on outlook, citing hopes for post-US election stability and lower interest ratesEmployment increased marginally Commenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director

The USDCAD pair has moved lower during the North American session as declining US yields and rising oil prices weigh on the pair. Technically, the price has fallen below the 200-hour moving average at 1.3509, while finding support near the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3494. Trading between these moving averages reflects a neutral technical

The American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee brings together15 chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks. The Committee chair notes the Fed is close to achieving its dual mandate, but warns the softening labor market needs monitoring Fed seen cutting rates by additional 150bps through end-2025Sees solid 2% growth in H2 2024 and

The U.S. stock market today presents a blend of cautious optimism and sector-specific setbacks, as evidenced by the latest heatmap data. Let’s dive into the details: 📈 Technology Sector: Steady Growth with Highlights The technology sector showcases a mixed but generally positive outlook, with several key players registering gains. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) has climbed by

Comments from Barnier: Will reduce deficit to 3% in 2029First remedy to bring down debt is to reduce spendingIn 2025, two-thirds of effort will focus on cutsBudget situation also requires targeted measures on tax policyWe will ask large companies and richest part of population to contribute to effort around finances It’s going to be a

In April, Iran launched around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles towards Israel. Most were shot down while a few landed near Israeli military facilities. CNN cites a senior White House correspondent saying the attack looks to be a similar size. A separate report from Reuters suggests the attack

Prior was 47.2Prices paid 48.3 vs 54.0 priorEmployment 43.9 vs 46.0 priorNew orders 46.1 vs 44.6 priorProduction 49.8 vs 44.8 priorSupplier deliveries 52.2 vs 50.5 priorInventories 43.9 vs 50.3 priorBacklog of orders 44.1 vs 43.6 priorNew export orders 45.3 vs 48.6 priorImports 48.3 vs 49.6 prior The ISM Manufacturing index remained in contraction territory in

The title of the speech is “Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal”. These are his first comments since the Sept 18 FOMC press conference. More to come Risks are two-sided, decisions will come meeting by meetingWe do not need to see further cooling in the labor market to achieve targetEconomy is

Prelim was 47.0Prior month was 47.9 The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Markets in mainland China are closed today, Tuesday, October 1, 2024. They reopen for trade on Tuesday 8 October. Hong Kong markets are also closed on Tuesday, October 1, 2024 for the National Day holiday. They reopen on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. ‘Stock Connect’, both directions, will be closed as per the mainland China holidays

It’s October and tonight is the Vice-Presidential debate. That means we’re now into the weeds of the election and it’s worth highlighting equity market performance in the past 24 election cycles. Bank of America crunched the numbers and they show a struggle in the first 10 trading days of October. The good news is that

S&P 500 futures are pointing modestly lower today but it’s been the best year-to-date run through three quarters since 1997. That year the market ran up nearly 30% as it was hyped by a technological breakthrough (sound familiar?) and a surprisingly strong economy. What happened next? The market eeked out a Q4 gain but it

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% This comes with US futures also seeing marginal changes, down by 0.1% so far on the day. That is keeping a more tentative mood in markets to start the session, with the dollar holding steadier for the most part. USD/JPY is

From Axios’ Barak Ravid: Senior White House Official tells me: “The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel” He continues: Senior White House Official:“We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry

National Bank highlights the dim prospects in the Canadian jobs market: Private sector job growth anemic at just 0.2% in first 8 months of 2024Labour force grew 2.0% in same period – largest gap outside of recessionPrivate sector job vacancy rate plummets to lowest level since 2016CFIB data shows SMEs less concerned about labour shortagesNBF

In the kickstart video for October 1, take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What are the trading biases? Where are the target? Where are the risks? In the EURUSD, the price moved sharply lower helped by weaker PMI and/CPI data. The next key target area comes between 1.1061 and 1.10678. That

Will consider delivering payouts to low-income households hit by rising living costsWill carry over, steadily push through growth strategy of former PM Kishida to achieve growth driven by higher wages, investmentWill pursue fiscal policy that puts highest priority on ending deflationI hope BOJ maintains easy monetary policy as a trend USD/JPY has ticked higher on

The US stock is taking on some downside heat at the open as Axios reports that Iran is planning an imminent attack on Israel. A snapshot of the market 7-minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average is down -303.11 or -0.72% at 42027.04.S&P is -41.57 points or -0.72% have 5720.57NASDAQ index is down

Bank of American is out with a good note highlighting that ‘markets stop panicking when central bank start panicking’. Now, I’m not sure markets were panicking (especially not outside of China) and I’m not sure central banks are panicking either but they’re cutting rates. In any case, there are many good points here and they

Prior 49.0 The Swiss industrial sector sees a slight improvement in September, now moving to near stabilising levels. The nudge higher in the past month owes to a pick up in new orders and also improving employment conditions. Procure notes that this raises hopes for a recovery in the coming months. This article was written

Japan finance minister Suzuki: FX interventions during term were significant decisions, were meaningfulFX intervention should be infrequentAim is for economic growth combined with fiscal health weak yen has positive and negative impacts on economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZByteDance (TikTok owner) plans new AI model trained with Huawei chipsAustralian dollar a touch higher after better than expected retail sales dataAustralian August retail sales +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4%)BNZ forecast a 50bp interest rate cut from Reserve Bank of New Zealand next

Associated Press with the hopeful report, In brief: strike deadline loomingthe union for 45,000 dockworkers and the group representing East and Gulf Coast ports have exchanged wage offersleaving a ray of hope that a deal can be reached without a major work stoppageU.S. Maritime Alliance, which represents 36 ports from Maine to Texas, said that

Fundamental Overview The USD got a bit of a boost yesterday as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40%. The focus remains on the economic data. If we

Manufacturing PMI 48.3 vs. 49.0 expected and 49.4 prior. Key findings: Sharper decline in production volumes in September. Total new orders down markedly, with exports falling sharply. Cost pressures cool notably, while charges discounted slightly. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The situation in Italy’s manufacturing

In the European session the main event will be the release of the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The market has already fully priced in a back-to-back cut in October, so it’s unlikely that the data will change those expectations unless we get big deviations from the expected numbers. We will also get the final PMI

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost yesterday as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40%. Moreover, overnight the BoJ Summary of Opinions showed

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. The price action since last week shows that it might take a bit to travel there but if it does, the expiries will act as a bit of a defensive layer alongside

The US dollar is at the highs of the day across the board after a pair of important comments from Powell. 1) In the first, he said that GDI revisions last week removed a downside risk for GDP. The fear was that GDP would be revised down to GDI, instead it was GDI revised up

Text is here: Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on September 19 and 20, 2024 In brief, the main piiuntts from what was a bit of a dud meeting: Japan’s economy has been recovering moderately, with steady price rises.Economic activity and prices are generally on track, with moderate growth expected.Concerns exist regarding the

BNZ summarise their reasoing: QSBO just awful CPI headed sub 2.0% Soft labour market to subdue non-tradables Rate settings need to move quickly towards neutral 50 basis point cut at October meeting warranted “In our opinion, we think the disinflationary information that we have received will dominate and that this will, ultimately, encourage the RBNZ

Our monetary policy stance is becoming less restrictivePolicy direction is clear as rate cuts have already begunPace and scale of rate cuts will be decided meeting by meetingSees inflation stabilising at 2% target during 2025 It’s the first chance for the ECB to confirm market expectations of a rate cut later this month but they’re

Final Manufacturing PMI 40.6 vs. 40.3 expected and 42.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 40.6 (Aug: 42.4). 12-month low. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 41.3 (Aug: 42.8). 11-month low. Expectations turn negative as confidence deteriorates sharply. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at

As the Fed looks to cut interest rates further, the general thinking is that it should weigh on the US dollar. But with traders pricing in ~163 bps of rate cuts by June next year, is there really much more to squeeze out of this trade? If the Fed goes by 25 bps every meeting

Crude oil settled today just one cent lower at $68.17. The low price today reached $67.60. The high price reached $69.18. At session lows, the price stayed above a swing area going back to 2023 between $66.76 and $67.51. On both Thursday and Friday of last week, the price stalled within that area and bounced

Retail sales in Australia bouncing in August, well above estimates: Building approvals headline fell further than forecast. The retail sales number is the focus, indicating resilient household spending. This will be an argument against RBA rate cuts any time soon. — This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Slowing inflation means more reasons to justify October rate cut in my viewRecent weakening in growth outlook also tips the scale in the direction of OctoberBut should closely monitor data and perform comprehensive analysis before deciding This is the first sign that any ECB policymaker is explicitly making a call for October. It shows how

Israeli military says it has begun limited, localized and targeted raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon Israeli military says these targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern IsraelSays Israeli air force and IDF artillery are supporting the ground

The US market didn’t like what it heard from Powell but that was overwhelmed by late-quarter buying. S&P 500 +0.4%Nasdaq Comp +0.4%DJIA flatRussell 2000 +0.2%Toronto TSX Comp +0.2% See quarterly performance here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Here is the breakdown of the key positions: Yoshimasa Hayashi remains as chief Cabinet secretaryKatsunobu Kato to undertake finance minister postTakeshi Iwaya to undertake foreign minister postYoji Muto to undertake trade and industry minister postGen Nakatani to undertake defence minister post This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Treasury says that while the June quarter GDP fell, more recent evidence suggests we are at or near the bottom of the economic cycle: June quarter GDP fell by 0.2%, less than expected, with population growth masking economic weakness. But,, its not a lock … Treasury go on to say that while interest rates began

Bank of Japan September quarter 2024 Tankan report, main findings: September big manufacturers index +13 (expected 13)December big manufacturers index seen at +14 (expected 12)September big non-manufacturers index +34 (expected 32)December big non-manufacturers index seen at +28 (expected 30)September small manufacturers index 0 (expected -2)December small manufacturers index seen at 0 (expected -3)September small non-manufacturers

The yen is down on the day as traders are fading the jump following Shigeru Ishiba’s win in the LDP leadership race last week. USD/JPY is up another 0.5% to 144.34, looking to potentially challenge the 145.00 mark on the daily chart again. The dollar rebound yesterday also helped, backed by Fed chair Powell’s remarks.

Japan data: The u/e rate in Japan remains low. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I suspect BNZ is spot on with this: BNZ forecast a 50bp interest rate cut from Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week NZD/USD has dropped to its low of the session so far, around 0.6335 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, the news from Powell on Monday was pushing back against super-sized rate cuts: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 Sep:Fed Powell indicates there should be 2 cuts in 2024 Skimming through the piece on Powell’s speech from the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos, often called ‘Nickileaks’ due to his conveying of messages from the

New Zealand data much improved. Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). Link to more here. In summary: Business confidence comes in at -1% in Q3 prior -44% Net 5% expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months prior was 40% expecting deterioration Firms’

The pair tried to seek a firm break above 1.1200 three times in September but failed, similar to the previous and first attempt this year back in August. The figure level remains a stubborn point where sellers are leaning on in keeping price action lower for now. The mood music yesterday was not helped by

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence is not generally an AUD mover. It dribbled a little lower in the week, ANZ citing the RBA on hold decision. Inflation expectations eased 0.3ppt to 4.6%, their lowest since September 2021. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It is desirable for currencies to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentalsNo comment on current FX movesHopes that FX will reflect changing phase of Japan economy as it moves out of deflationWill respond appropriately if needed The headline remark is particularly interesting, as it matches up with what BOJ governor Ueda said last week here.

Expectations are for improved retail sales data from Australia today: Commnets from CBA’s preview: Retail sales flatlined in July, the first official read on consumer spending since the Stage 3 tax cuts. We anticipate there was a small rise in August, in part owing to the early timing of Father’s Day (1 September) that saw

Judo Bank / S&P Global for September 2024 46.7 prior 48.7flash was 46.7 In summary from the report: Manufacturing sector weakened to cyclical lows through September.Demand is soft, with elevated business cost pressures.Manufacturing PMI index at lowest since 2016, excluding the pandemic start.Output and new orders are significantly below the neutral level of 50.Sector has

Manufacturing PMI from Japan for September 2024, the final from S&P Global / Jibun Bank. Another contraction result. Preliminary is here: Japan Jibun preliminary Sep PMIs: Manufacturing 49.6 (prior 49.8) Services 53.9 (53.7) The key points in the report: Output levels fall for second time in three months Slowest rise in employment levels in current

An interesting snippet from Reuters ICYMI: TikTok’s Chinese parent ByteDance plans to develop an AI model trained primarily with chips from compatriot Huawei Technologies ByteDance has diversified to domestic suppliers of chips used in artificial intelligence and accelerated development of its own since the U.S. in 2022 started restricting exports of advanced AI chips such

British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Shop Price Index in September -0.6% y/y expected -0.3%, prior -0.3%shop prices fall by the most since August 2021seventh time in nine months that the pace of price growth has weakened The report adds that services inflation, a closely watched indicator of underlying inflation pressure by the Bank of England,

No sooner did I post this: Late “ray of hope” in US port strike – deadline looms though Than news crosses that the Union says ‘Nope’. Says the wage offer was not acceptable. * The strike begins at 12.01 am if no agreement is reached. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US equity close: A surge in buying lateMarkets stop panicking when central bank start panickingHow major market indexes performed in the third quarterWTI crude oil futures settled $68.17USD moving higher as Powell taps the brakes on cutsPowell Q&A: A downside risk in GDP was a revision to GDI, but GDI was revised higherPowell: Policy will

Notes that a downside risk in GDP was a revision to GDIInstead, GDI was revised higherFed not in a hurry to cut rates quickly, will be guided by dataRate cut process will play out ‘over some time’ with no need to go fastFed will take everything into account at Nov meetingIf economy evolves as expected,

The title of the speech is “Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal”. These are his first comments since the Sept 18 FOMC press conference. The title suggests he’s going to wade into the outlook. The market is pricing a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in October and 43% of

The Bank of Japan polls firms as part of its quarterly Tankan survey. The Price Expectations survey shows: Japan firms expect CPI to rise 2.4% a year from now, the same rate as the survey 3 months ago. expect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.3% three years from now and an annual 2.2% five

Bank of America say that with EUR/USD on approach to their year-end target of 1.12 the pair has limited upside: market expectations for Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest-rate cuts are fully priced now for 2024 ( I’ll just pop in that after Powell spoke on Monday those expectations looked to have been overpriced

abrdn is an Asset Management firm. Funny spelling, short for ‘a burden’ I think, but could be wrong. We see prime minister Ishiba’s appointment as a positive. Endorsement of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy normalisation is a key benefit for markets, in addition to a pro competition and reduced fiscal stance. “Together, this should

The quarter is winding down and here is how various markets have done: S&P 500 +4.9%Nasdaq +1.9%Russell 2000 +8.3%TSX Comp +9.3%FTSE 100 +0.9%CAC 40 +6.0%Nikkei +8.5%Shanghai Comp +12.5% Those are some nice numbers and it marks four straight quarters of gains for the S&P 500. The US dollar index was down 4.7% in the quarter.

First off, there are market closures in Asia today for holidays. Mainland China is closed Hong Kong is closedSouth Korea is closed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene is up soon. Greene spoke last week: BOE’s Greene: Appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing policy restrictiveness The data agenda that follows is

The Fed Chair has tapped the brakes after saying if things go as planned, there will be 2 more cuts in 2024. The expectations for a 50 bp cut is down to 36%. At one point last week, the expectation was around 60%. USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved up to test, and move above, the

Both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD have made new highs for the year today. For the AUSUSD it has traded to a new high of 0.6941. That is the highest level since February 2023. The price of the pair is also running away from the June and July highs from the same year between 0.69947

The softer French and Spanish inflation numbers from last week have only served to rebuff market expectations for an ECB rate cut in October. And if things play out accordingly today, the German inflation numbers will reaffirm those odds. The estimate is for headline annual inflation to ease further to 1.7%, down from 1.9% in

The EURUSD up and down volatility continues. After trading near the 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) in the Asian/Pacific session, the price moved sharply higher. In the process the pair moved above the swing level from Friday’s trade just above the 1.1200 level, but fell short of a high price from

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee (2025 voting member and dove) speaking on FOXBusiness news says He is worried about the possible continued port shutdownThe Fed is cutting rates because the economy has normalizeThe jobs market is sustainableInterest rates coming down is the order the day.Cautionary indicators on the job marketThe most important thing about rate cuts

There are reports of long lines as Chinese brokerages as stock market fever quickly grabs China. The moves have been epic, including another 8% rally in the Shanghai Composite today. The early verdict from the stock market reaction seems to say that the government has found the right combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus. With

Goldman Sachs is out with a note today highlighting downside inflation pressures from oil. I’ve been writing about this for awhile, noting that oil is trading more than $20 below where it was at this time last year, adding a powerful drag for crude. Looking out further, Goldman Sachs sees continued low prints and heading

Bostic Is open to another 50 basis point cut of labor market shows continued weakness.Baseline cases for an orderly easing with inflation and expected to continue slowing and job market to hold up.He does not want to get overconfident on inflation given core personal consumption expenditures price index remains at 2.7%.He will be watching incoming

The USDCAD moved up on Friday and stalled at the falling 200-hour MA. Today, the price did move above that falling MA (it was lower today), but stalled near the high from Friday, and below the 50% midpoint of the September trading range (at 1.35328). Those are the topside targets to get to and through

As promised last week, China has lowered the downpayment ratio for first-time home buyers to 15% while the ratio for second homes has been lowered to 20%. This isn’t a new announcement, it’s the confirmation of government reports from last week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As it’s usually the case, the week starts with very few notable events. The main highlight in the European session will be the German inflation figures although given that the market has already priced in a rate cut in October, the data shouldn’t have too much of an impact. In the American session, we have

Prior -0.4% Looking at the details, the main drag was from energy prices which were down 4.8% compared to July. If you strip that out, import prices were only down by 0.2% on the month with the main drag being from prices for intermediate goods (-0.6%). Comparing to a year ago though, import prices were

Japan August Retail Sales surprise to the topside. Industrial output balanced it out by surprising to the downside. – Earlier re Japan: Talk of a Japanese election October 27 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 101.6; revised to 105.0 It’s a modest bump higher after the revision to the August reading. It indicates some optimism to the Swiss economic outlook but nothing too major when you look at the trend as a whole. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 75 bps (53% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 193 bps ECB: 50 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 175 bps BoE: 38 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 155 bps BoC: 75 bps (51%

Headlines: EUR/USD runs up to test the 1.1200 mark againChinese stocks stay hot ahead of the holiday breakWeekly update on interest rate expectationsSNB data shows Swiss central bank was hardly active in FX markets in Q2SNB total sight deposits w.e. 27 September CHF 472.2 bn vs CHF 465.3 bn priorGermany August import price index -0.4%

Kickstart the FX trading day with a technical look at the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD has been trading up and down over the last few trading days. What is somewhat unique to today’s price action, is that the price is trying to stay above its 100 hour moving

Prior was -9.7Output (production) -3.2 vs +1.6 priorNew orders -5.2 vs -4.2 priorEmployment +2.9 vs -0.7 priorOutlook -6.4 vs -9.6 priorPrices paid for raw materials +18.2 vs +28.2 priorPrices received +8.4 vs +8.5 priorWages +18.5 vs +22.0 prior This is a neutral reading overall. There are some positive indications on the outlook and inflation but

The Japanese political situation has been high drama in the past week. On Friday, Japan’s LDP opted not to pick a dovish leader of their party, causing a big drop in USD/JPY. That was followed by a snap-election call from incoming PM Ishiba. The vote will take place on October 27 as he tries to

Prior +0.7%GDP +0.7% vs +0.9% y/y prelimPrior +0.3% It’s a slight revision lower with the quarterly breakdown as per the following compared to the preliminary estimate: Household consumption +0.11% (previously +0.12%)Government consumption +0.23% (previously +0.30%)Gross fixed capital formation +0.10% (previously +0.08%)Gross capital formation: other +2.25% (previously +2.30%)Net trade -2.20% (unchanged) This article was written by

Fed’s Bowman and Powell will both speak on Monday. Let the 25 vs. 50 battle (re) commence!US politics – US Vice President Harris raises $55 million in California fundraisersChinese stocks continue to surgeBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene speaks on Monday, late NY timeJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says no comment on daily

Prior +1.1%HICP +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expectedPrior +1.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. This matches up with the softer headline figures from France and Spain last week. Then again, Italian headline inflation has been on the lower side for a while now. Nonetheless, it still reaffirms the latest calls for the ECB

Gold is a laggard today, falling $27 to $2630. It’s only a 1% drop and comes after a massive rally but it’s worth considering gold right now in light of what’s happening in China. I’ve made this point a couple times in the past week or so: China has been the big buyer of gold

Oil has been ratcheting up today but it’s not clear if that’s China or war worries, though it’s certainly not hurting crude. Just now Hezbollah also claimed an attack on Israel using a ballistic missile for the first time. It’s a ‘nour missile’. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

CNN reports that Israel could imminently launch a ground incursion into Lebanon. However the report says that following discussions with the US, the incursion could be more-limited than what Israel initially planned. I would take this all with a grain of salt as many of these headlines have proven false in the past and very

Will increase loan placement for ‘white list’ projects, met reasonable financing needs of real estate projects This isn’t much but it’s another note highlighting that China is trying to turn on the growth taps. It’s another excuse to look at the insane chart of the Shanghai Composite, which rose another 8% today. This article was

The USDCHF moved down on Friday and once again moved closer to the low of the up and down swing area that has confined most of the trading going back to around August 20. The low for that swing area comes in near 0.8400, and on Friday and again today, that area was tested and

Note, New Zealand switched to daylight saving time over the weekend as summer approaches. Speaking of New Zealand, there is the ANZ New Zealand Business Survey for September 2024 due today. The August data improved from July but was still awful: New Zealand business confidence in August -47.8% vs. prior -56.7% But, the focus will

As the NA session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the new trading week. Last week, was filled with China stimulus announcements from both a fiscal and monetary policy. The stock market soared in response with the Shanghai composite index rising 12.81%. The

This just confirms the date as previously reported from quite a number of media outlets earlier in Asia trading. Ishiba will be sworn in as prime minister tomorrow and is expected to revamp the Cabinet positions ahead of the snap election. Yoshimasa Hayashi is expected to stay on as chief Cabinet secretary while Katsunobu Kato

The data shows that they have clearly moved away from having to sell foreign currencies in 2023 to manage imported inflation. Now that they’re over the hill, it’s time to focus on the other side. They recently changed their thoughts on the franc back in August, saying that it is becoming a “problem” – especially

🔥 Chinese stocks are sizzling and it has been a while since we’ve seen such an upturn in sentiment in the region. After the over 15% gains last week, the CSI 300 index is up over 6% now at the lunch break. As seen with the chart above, the run higher already broke the downtrend

ChiNext is up 11% Beijing 50 i sup 14% Shanghai Composite +4% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1% A blistering day of rallies in China. Stimulus efforts were rolled about last week, and continued over the weekend: More stimulus from China over the weekend – banks instructed to cut mortgage rates Earlier today we had disappointing

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% This comes with US futures showing a more muted tone today, keeping flattish at the moment. It’s been another good month for European indices, having clawed their way back after the early August blip. But with month-end and quarter-end in focus

Wake me up when September.. oh, it’s already ending. The month has certainly flew by. So far today, the dollar is keeping steadier for the most part. The yen remains volatile with USD/JPY up earlier in Asia to 142.95 but is now near unchanged levels on the day. Instead, it is the antipodeans which are

Info comes via a (gated) Bloomberg report. It reports that the Shanghai Stock Exchange conducted weekend stress tests, requesting brokerages take part in these tests after its systems faced difficulties handling a surge in trading activity on Friday. Weekend simulations included processing 270 million transactions according to a statement from the exchange. This is twice

The major US stock indices are trading mixed to start the weekend and the third quarter. The snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average -194.71 points or -0.46% at 14 118129S&P index -4.54 points or -0.08% at 5733.63NASDAQ index +27.93 points or 0.15% at 18147.52 The small-cap Russell

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data September PMIs Manufacturing 49.8 expected 49.5, prior 49.1 Non manufacturing 50.0 expected 50.4, prior 50.3 The focus on this data point today is low, its all about stimulus from China now. Its been ramped up and announcements continued over the weekend: More stimulus from China over the weekend

Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic landscape, with notable shifts across key sectors. Despite some pressures, distinct trends are emerging that could shape investment strategies. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: This sector presents a mixed bag. Apple (AAPL) stands out with a gain of 1.44%, buoying investor confidence in consumer electronics. However, semiconductor stocks like

Any attempt to enlarge and strength banks is welcome, bearing in mind liabilitiesCross border mergers have a lot of benefits but aren’t without risksIt’s up to undertakers of mergers to decide if they are worth it Nothing big here and the euro is flat on the day. More: We are not going to wait until

Info comes via a Bloomberg report: Kamala Harris raised about $55 million in high-dollar events in California this weekendfundraiser on Sunday took in about $28 millionSaturday’s about $27 millionHarris began September with $404 million in the bank, compared to $295 million for TrumpHarris campaign spent an average of $7.5 million a day in August, compared

Latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner, we will take that into account at meeting in OctoberEmployment growth slowed to just 0.2% in the second quarter and recent indicators point to a further deceleration in the coming quartersThe labor market remains resilientWe expect the recovery to strengthen

A note from Rabobank argues that Sterling might continue to outperform the euro in coming months Cites due to the Bank of England’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates. Rabo adds that October could prove a rocky month for both currencies U.K. budget on October 30 could present a hurdle for sterling as the prospect

Credit growth steady on the month both m/m and y/y. Business credit expanding nicely. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China PMIs from the private survey Manufacturing Services Composite more to come Earlier: China official PMI data: Manufacturing 49.8 (expected 49.5) — — China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin

Americans are cleaning up from Hurricane Helene and it looks like it will be a long rebuilding effort in some parts of the country. The respite might be short for hurricane watchers as a late-starting hurricane season looks like it stay busy. There are a couple of harmless storms turning north in the mid-atlantic but

Prior +1.9%HICP +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +2.0% The softer headline figure was more or less expected after the state readings earlier here. Core annual inflation is expected to come in at 2.7% though, just marginally lower than the 2.8% reading in August. So, there is still more work to be done there to convince

Fundamental Overview Last week, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates cuts. Copper rallied strongly as China makes up for more than 50% of copper demand. Things are starting to look better for the market as we have also the Fed cutting rates into a resilient economy.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. But just be wary that trading sentiment could be impacted by month-end and quarter-end flows later, especially when we get closer towards the London fix. That might make for a bit of a trickier time in reading into price action on a day

The data is here from earlier: Japan data – August Industrial production -3.3% m/m (expected -0.9%)Japan August Retail Sales 2.8% y/y (expected 2.3%) A Japanese government says output will get better aehaed: Fall in motor vehicle production contributed to the decline in AugustChip-making equipment output also decreased due to weaker overseas demandChip-making machinery exports to

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Domestic sight deposits CHF 463.6 bn vs CHF 457.2 bn prior Swiss sight deposits jumped in the past week, with the total levels rising back up to its highest since early May. That might be indicative of the SNB stepping in a little to intervene with the franc’s strength in the past week. This article

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.1165USD/JPY 142.16GBP/USD 1.3372USD/CHF 0.8415USD/CAD 1.3515AUD/USD 0.6908NZD/USD 0.6339 This article was written

Fundamental Overview In the latter part of last week, crude oil sold off without a clear catalyst. Some people have been citing the FT piece about Saudi Arabia being ready to abandon the $100 target but as Amena Bakr, senior research analyst at Energy Intelligence said, there was never a target and such a high

The euro is sitting higher on the day, with EUR/USD seen up 0.3% to clip the 1.1200 mark. Even EUR/CHF is also driven higher, up 0.6%T to 0.9445 currently. But circling back to EUR/USD, the pair is once again testing key daily resistance at the figure level as buyers are hoping for a breakthrough this

2010 GMT / 1610 US Eastern time Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks as part of a panel discussiontopic is perspectives on global monetary policyvenue is the NABE economics conference in Nashville Greene spoke last week: BOE’s Greene: Appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing policy restrictiveness Bank of England

Japanese industrial output for August 2024 – — Earlier re Japan: Talk of a Japanese election October 27 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 61.99k; revised to 62.50kNet consumer credit £1.3 billion vs £1.4 billion expectedPrior £1.2 billion Mortgage approvals rose in August, moving up to its highest level since August 2022 – largely driven by a surge in purchase activity. On net, individuals borrowed £2.9 billion of mortgage debt in August, compared to £2.8 billion in July.

The yen rocketed higher on Friday on political news: Japanese yen sureges as Ishiba wins PM contest When I say rocketed, I am not exagerrating. USD/JPY was above 146.00 and ended Frdiay down near 142.00. We’ve had a bit of a rebound/retracement in early Monday trade. News and data: Japan data – August Industrial production

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a sustained rally ever since the last Fed’s decision as real yields fell further due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. More recently, real yields pulled back a bit, while gold continued to print new highs. The new driver could be China as last week they started

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Monday, the U.K. will release its final GDP q/q data, while Switzerland will publish the KOF economic barometer. In the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion titled “A View from the Federal Reserve Board” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Nashville. Although audience questions are expected,

Brandenburg CPI +1.4% vs +1.7% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.5% vs +1.7% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y prior The state figures point to softer yearly figures compared to the month before. Based on the estimates, we should see the German national number come in later

ANZ Business Outlook survey September 2024 Business Confidence 60.9% prior 50.6% Activity 45.3% prior 37.1% ANZ comment: first signs of improvement in current activityA sharper rebound in economic activity than generally anticipated would of course be great news – as long as inflation still returns sustainably to target. The proportion of firms intending to raise

Prior -0.2% In annual terms, house prices grew by 3.2% year-on-year and that’s the fastest growth in two years. The average price of a typical dwelling in the UK is at £266,094 as of the month. Nationwide notes that: “Income growth has continued to outstrip house price growth in recent months while borrowing costs have

1250 GMT / 0850 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman discusses the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference Bowman dissented at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. In favour of a 25bp rate cut vs. the 50bp that was passed. Bowman spoke last

Rachel Reeves is the UK government’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. She’ll be attending a meeting of European Union finance ministers according to the Financial Times: Reeves is on record as pushing for an ambitious deal to reduce trade barriers with the EU. FT is gated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan election October 27 rumoured, NHK. Japan’s NKH, Japan Broadcasting Corporation (also known as NHK) is a Japanese public broadcaster. Reporting the new Prime Minister is planning a general election for October 27. Shigeru Ishiba was elected ruling party (LDP) leader and soon-to-be prime minister on Friday. Rep[orts are he has decided to hold a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

German DAX futures -0.3%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures also showing a more muted tone. S&P 500 futures are down marginally by just 0.1% on the day. Just be mindful that we could be dealing with month-end and quarter-end shenanigans later. And that could factor into the flows

Reuters carried the report over the weekend: Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday it was on alert after missiles firing deep in inland Chinadetected “multiple waves of firing” by China’s Rocket Force and army in the provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, which all lie at least 2,000 km (1,200 miles)

The 2024 class of university graduates in China is the largest ever, at 11.8mn. They are entering a labour market showing record youth unemployment. Media reports, in summary, outline the cornering situation facing the oldies clinging on to power in the Politburo. Youth unemployment (16-24) hit 18.8% in August, near all-time highLess than 30% of

Hayashi: No comment on daily share movesContinue to monitor economic and financial situation in Japan and overseas with sense of urgencyContinue to work closely with BOJ Chinese shares are having another strong day as stimulus measures are assessed and new ones get rolled out, the lates being over the weekend – lower mortgage rates and

Mark Zandi is Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He’s posted over the weekend a glowing review of the US economy. I reckon there is a big warning in this … but first, he is what he said (in brief): with last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best

In May the Australian Treasury forecast a budget suplus of A$9.8bn. The final outcome though is way above, at A$15.8bn, which is more than A$6bn better than forecast. Revenue dropped but spending was slashed. It’s the first consecutive year surplus in nearly 20 years. Strong commodity prices were a solid contributing factor. At the margin,

Kristofferson wrote many hits in the 1970s. RIP. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand moved clocks forward an hour to switch to daylight saving time as summer approaches. If you are trading markets in NZ, a heads up. As an early alert, parts of Australia will switch to daylight saving time on the coming weekend, October 6. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Sunday the People’s Bank of China announced it’d be instructing banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before October 31. The PBOC said banks should reduce interest rates on existing mortgages to no less than 30 basis points (bps) below the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) The 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was

Mon: Chinese NBS & Composite PMIs (Sep), Caixin PMIs (Sep), Japanese Retail Sales (Aug), German Retail Sales (Jun), UK GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Sep), German Flash CPI (Sep), UK Mortgage Approvals/Lending (Aug), US Dallas Fed Index (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3) ; Canada Holiday.Tue: Riksbank Minutes, EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), EZ Flash CPI (Sep),

An exit poll following Sunday’s vote by broadcaster ORF showed Austria’s Freedom Party leading with 29.1% compared to 26.2% for Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party and 20.4% for the centre-left Social Democrats. Herbert Kickl, head of the Freedom Party may struggle to put together a governing coalition. Ahead of the vote, the Freedom Party

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Chinese PMIs, German CPI, Fed Chair Powell. (Canada on Holiday)Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, BoJ Summary of Opinions, Australia Retail Sales, Swiss Retail Sales, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings. (China on Holiday)Wednesday: Japan Tankan Index, Eurozone

There will be previews of the week ahead soon to come but the big two events next week are: Federal Reserve Chair Powell discussing the US economic outlook at a National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday. This is at 1300 US Eastern time on Monday, September 30 (1700 GMT).On Friday, October 4, at

BofA recommends selling short gold against silver at a ratio of 83.50, with a target of 78.50/75.00 and a stop at 87.50. Key Points: Gold: The 2024 price targets of 2368, 2538, and 2643 have already been achieved, with the next target at approximately 2733. However, BofA advises against chasing gold at this time due

US August core PCE +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedCanada GDP for July 0.2% versus 0.1% expectedUS Advanced goods trade balance for August $-94.26 billion vs. -100.60B estimateUS September UMich final consumer sentiment 70.1 vs 69.3 expectedUS wholesale inventories advanced for August 0.2% versus 0.3%Baker Hughes US oil rig count 484 vs 488 priorMusalem: Fed should cut

Closing changes in North American equities: S&P 500 -0.1%Nasdaq Comp -0.4%DJIA +0.3%Russell 2000 +0.7%Toronto TSX Comp -0.3% On the week: S&P 500 +0.6%Nasdaq Comp +1.0%DJIA +0.6% US stocks had a strong start and liked the PCE report but the bombing in Beirut along with quarter-end flows added some caution. Nvidia was also weak on a

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council at his home compound, in response to Israel’s strike in Beirut that targeted the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. The latest reports suggest Nasrallah was killed but there have been many conflicting reports for hours. The market seemingly isn’t