The Fed delivered a big cut but it was a case of ‘sell the fact’ as equities couldn’t keep the winning streak going. I think at the end of the day, you have a ‘Fed put’ now and that wins out but we could see a squeeze tomorrow. S&P 500 -0.2%Nasdaq Comp -0.2%DJIA -0.2%Russell 2000 […]

The European session is empty on the data front with just a low tier release like the Eurozone current account. Just before the start of the American session, we have the BoE rate decision which is going to be one of the main events for today coupled with the US jobless claims figures. 11:00 GMT/07:00

The dollar is lower in European morning trade, as the post-Fed reaction is starting to weigh more heavily now. USD/JPY traded to a high of 143.94 in Asia but has been dragged all the way back down now to roughly flat levels on the day at 143.18. Looking at broader markets, equities are running higher

The EURUSD moved higher (lower USD) after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. The price extended higher and toward swing highs for the year. The 2nd to last swing high target was at 1.11897, and that level was reached. What wasn’t reached was the double top at 1.12009 from August 23 and August 26..

You’ll notice that the HKMA base rate is slightly above the Fed Funds rate. The HKD trades in a band linked to the US dollar prescribed by the HKMA. You can see the limits of the band in the chart below. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) adjusts its interest rates in line with the

New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) I posted the summary take from ANZ New Zealand here: expect the RBNZ to deliver 25bp cuts at each meeting More now, via Reuters. This from ASB, who stick to their call for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut by another 50 basis points by the

German DAX futures +0.7%UK FTSE futures +0.8% US futures are also on the up with tech shares leading the charge. S&P 500 futures are now up 1.0% while Nasdaq futures are up by 1.5% on the day. Dow futures meanwhile are up by 0.6% currently. Fresh highs are beckoning for US equities again after the

New Zealand remains in a prolonged recession. RBNZ needs to get cash rate below 4%, asap.Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Analysts Predict No Change in RatesAustralian August unemployment rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0983 (vs. estimate at 7.0924)What’s coming up from the Reserve Bank of New

The firm is changing up their call after the Fed moved more aggressively to start things off with a 50 bps rate cut here. Their previous call was for the Fed to only perform quarterly cuts in 2025. But now, they are expecting the Fed to go with 25 bps rate cuts at each of

Prior CHF 4.89 billion; revised to CHF 4.88 billion The Swiss trade surplus narrowed in August with the breakdown seen below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The jobs market report for August is due today from the Australian Bureau of Statistics: 11.30 am Sydney time0130 GMT2130 US Eastern time As you’ll see in the screenshot below, the previous month’s report, July, showed another huge gain in jobs, carrying on the trend of strong employment growth over the past year. Note also

The USD is trading higher across the major FX board. Its particularly notable against the JPY. USD/JPY is around 143.90, from lows in the session earlier aroudn142.00! The dollar weakened in the lead up to the FOMC and has strengthened since. ‘Buy the fact’ indeed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The bill was to fund the government for 6 months. Its failed. There are 12 days until the government shuts down. Reuters: The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday voted to defeat a stopgap government funding bill brought forward by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, as some members of his own party opposed the measure.

The data from NZ earlier is here: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) Via ANZ New Zealand, their take (in summary): The New Zealand economy contracted 0.2% q/q in Q2 on a seasonally adjusted basis … above the RBNZ’s forecast of -0.5% q/q.Despite an upward surprise for the RBNZ, overall economic momentum remains

The latest from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the Labour Force report, August 2024. Employment +47.5k expected +25.0k, prior +58.2k Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Participation Rate 67.1% expected 67.1%, prior 67.1% Full Time Employment -3.1k prior + 60.5k The headline jobless rate has not disappointed. And the headline employment addition appears

The focus of the Wednesday session was, of course, on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). But, ICYMI, a development for stock exchanges of note. The share market top regulator, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC),has voted to allow stock exchanges to price many shares in increments of half a cent, rather than the

The only news of note has been the rate cut from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday: Just waking up? Here’s the short summary of Wednesday’s FOMC rate cutForexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Sep: Fed starts rate cuts with a 50 bp cut Lower US rates mean a lower USD, right?

August National CPI data from Japan is due on Friday. We have had the Tokyo CPI data for August, which came in higher vs. July: Tokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%) The Bank of Japan statement follows a few hours later. There is no rate change expected: Bank of Japan meeting

US equity close: Big Fed cut can’t fuel an 8th day of gainsThe ‘ole FOMC ‘sell the fact’ hits againCrude oil settles down eight cents at $69.88Powell Q&A: We concluded that 50 basis point cut was the right thingPowell opening statement: We’re committed to preserving our economy’s strengthGold rallies to a record high after the

FOMC cut policy rates by 50 bp target range is now 4.75-5.00%2024 dot down to 4.4%, indicating another 50 bp by year-end (it was line ball, the difference between year end 25bp and 50bp was only one dot) … expectations are currently 25 bp in November and 25 bp in December.longer-run dot was revised higher

Here is the dot plot from June 2024: Here is the dot plot from September 2024: Below is the table economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation. Summary of the eocnomic projections: GDP steadyUnemployment rate moved higher with 4.4% the peakPCE inflation lower. To 2.1% by end of 2025 and 2.0%

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the razzle dazzle on Wednesday with a 50 basis point cut to start the rate-lowering cycle. Economists didn’t expect the move but markets had sniffed it out with Fed funds futures pricing in a 55% chance of a larger cut. The immediate reaction was a ‘risk on’ one that

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision 25bp SELIC rate hike more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The initial reaction on the 50 basis point rate Is for the US dollar to move lower: USDJPY. The USDJPY moved to a low of 140.76. That was within five pips of the swing low from last Wednesday’s trading day. The price is currently trading below its 100-hour moving average above at 141.09 at 140.98.

Powell will begin speaking at 2:30 pm ET. He will deliver an opening statement and then take questions. The press conference usually lasts an hour, or slightly less. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We’ve seen this one before. You can game out the Fed decision as much as possible but the market loves to punish both sides of the trade. That’s exactly what we’re getting at the moment as the US dollar recoups all its FOMC losses, and in some cases more than that. I think the bond

The USDJPY has announced higher after all and below the low from last Wednesday at 140.71 but stalling ahead of the December 2023 low price at 140.248. The low price reached 140.43. With the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 141.07, it keeps the buyers in play. However, they will still need to

The full statement from the September 2024 rate decision: September 18, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Share Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made

Decision reflects our growing confidence that strength in our labor market can be maintainedConsumer spending has remained resilientEconomy is strong overallLabor market has continued to coolIf inflation were to fall more quickly, we are prepared to respondWe will adjust policy as necessary Quoteable: “This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of

We had 2 jobs and 2 employment reports since last meeting and jobs data revisionsCites Beige BookA good place to start on what’s coming next is the SEPWe will take it meeting by meetingWe’re in the process of re-calibrating our policy stance, that will take place over timeThere is nothing in the SEP that suggests

Bowman dissents in 11-1 voteNo change to QE, as expectedEconomists widely expected a 25 bps cutFed funds futures priced the likelihood of 50 bps at 59%Fed funds were in range of 5.25% to 5.50% before the decisionNow says: The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that

The GBPUSD did make a run to the upside in the early US session and in the process extended above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3230. I talked about that area in the earlier video starting at the 7-minute mark. The move above that level extended the price of the GBPUSD toward the high

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In this video, I take a look at the technical roadmap for traders through the FOMC rate decision. What would increase the bearish bias and why? What would shift the bias more to the bullish side – at least in the short term. With the price lower and trading near 2024 lows, and the price

It’s wild that in 2027 — seven years after the pandemic emergency — governments will still be breaking eurozone deficit rules. This obviously doesn’t end well. In the long analysis, I think it will show that the optimum path for politicians trying to win the next election is to spend more, in part because the

The Atlanta Fed GDPnow growth estimate for Q3 falls to 2.9% from 3.0% last. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on September 18, down from 3.0 percent on September 17. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census

The major US stock indices are trading within 0.03% of unchanged as the market calmly wait for the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The S&P index reached a high price today of 5642.84. Yesterday, a new all-time high price was reached intraday at 5670.82. The high closing level is up 5669.67. The Dow

The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is lower (and the weakest) ahead of the FOMC rate decision which will take place at 2 PM today. At that time, the Fed will not only decide on whether it is 25 or 50 basis

Some Governing Council members were more concerned about downside risks to inflationConcern about downside risks was linked to potential further weakening of economy and labor marketOther members took the view that risks to inflation outlook were balancedMembers discussed whether weakness in Canadian consumption and housing could partly be due to caution on the part of

The People’s Bank of China will set Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Friday September 20: these benchmark lending rates remained unchanged in Augustone-year loan prime rate stayed at 3.35%the five-year rate was maintained at 3.85% In July China’s central bank confirmed several reforms to its interest rate framework, shifting from using the previous LPR precursor

Crude oil inventories -1.630M vs -0.500M estGasoline inventories +0.069M vs +0.240M estimateDistillates inventories +0.125M vs +0.551M estimateCushing -1.979M vs -1.704M last weekrefining utilization -0.7% versus expectations of -1.0%. Previously -0.5% The private inventory data yesterday showed yields of around 2M for crude, gasoline and distillates. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

This data point tends not to shift NZD/USD around much at all upon release. More data yet to come from NZ: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has been trading in a sideways pattern even though CPI data out of a Canada yesterday was weaker than expected. The unemployment rate is also moving higher with that at the highest level since 2017 (if you take out the spike from 2020 to 2021). The fundamentals are probably weaker in Canada which

Treasury yields are up 4 basis points across the curve in a sign of either: The market over-pricing a dovish FedAngst ahead of the Fed decision I tend to think it’s the latter as bond buyers have flooded in over the past two months. US 10s highlight just how far the move has come and

I had a chance to speak with TradeGateHub earlier today about the FOMC decision, how to trade it and what I’m thinking about in terms of global growth. We also touched on CAD, precious metals, energy and the outlook for stock markets. The main takeaway for today is something I touch in within the first

This is via Westpac’s preview of the inflation data due from Australia on Wendesday 25 September at 11.30 am Sydney time 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time In brief: WPAC near-cast for the August Monthly CPI Indicator is –0.2%mth/2.7%yr. For the September quarter CPI our near-cast is 0.3%qtr/2.9%yr. …. Our near-cast for the Trimmed Mean

Oksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, spoke with CNBC on Tuesday. Says a rate cut is not needed, citing: historically low unemploymenta normal rate environment that markets are no longer used to current 4.3% unemployment rate is “certainly well within” the Fed’s 5% target, and that any recent

NZD/USD not showing much response. Currently up a few wee tics around 0.6189. The data focus for the week is Q2 GDP due Thursday local NZ time. The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from

There are days when you REALLY need to know the roadmap technically. For me, knowing the roadmap daily is important. The roadmap tells you the targets. The roadmap tells you the risk. The roadmap keeps you in trend moves. The roadmap prevents you from riding a trend the wrong way. Today, the FOMC rate decision

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rebounded from the lows as the buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason which could drive oil prices higher

US housing starts are due at the bottom of the hour and forecast to rebound to 1.310m after falling to a post-pandemic low last month. The long-term chart highlights the problem: US housing starts are significantly lower than they were in 1980 despite a 47% increase in US population. The housing crash led to a

What a day this is turning out to be. The implied odds of a 50 bps were almost 70% yesterday but have slipped back to 55% in a steady grind. The market just doesn’t know what’s coming but there is clearly some anxiety today about under-delivering. That’s led to a dollar rally and a selloff

No one cared about Bullard when he was at the Fed and no one cares about him now. He says the Fed couldn’t defend 50 bps. “It seems to me the Fed will coalesce around three 25 basis point cuts this year and keep a deeper cut in their pocket,” he said. This article was

Prior was 1.238m (revised to 1.237m)Starts +9.6% vs -6.8% priorBuilding permits 1.475mM vs 1.396M expectedPermits +4.9% vs -4.0% prior Starts hit a post-pandemic low last month but rebounded nicely here. They’re still far too low for population growth but rate This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices are little changed to start the trading day. Of course, the FOMC rate decision will be key at 2 PM ET where the Fed is expected to cut by 50 basis points but the decision can go either way. What the Fed chair says, what the Dot plot and the projections for

USD/JPY has extended to the highs of the day, up 154 pips to 142.15. It’s been a strong reversal after the pair touched a 2024 low of 139.59 yesterday. I’m kicking myself a bit because the doji reversal yesterday was a sign of a turn and with the Fed coming up, there was some incentive

Sector Overview The current US stock market snapshot reveals a blend of vibrant highs and subdued lows across various sectors. One standout is the automotive sector, spearheaded by Tesla (TSLA), which boasts an impressive gain of 1.44%. In contrast, the healthcare sector appears sluggish, with companies like UnitedHealth (UNH) facing a decline of 0.84%. On

A miss for the data – but do note this is a choppy data series. — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Former Fed Mester on CNBC says” 25 or 50 bp in cuts is really a close call. Good case for series of 25 basis points cutsThe Fed is starting a series of cuts to bring restrictiveness back downIt is time to start a new phase of bringing rates lowerThe Fed will stay on the job

That is down from ~37% previously coming into today. That means traders are seeing some ~74% odds of the BOE keeping rates unchanged tomorrow. And that is pretty much the consensus expectation in any case. From earlier: UK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expected This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the day: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX flatFrancis CAC -0.5%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.7%Spain’s Ibex -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.4% There was a nice run-up into the Fed decision but there is some angst ahead of today’s announcement in many markets. That’s usually a good thing as the Fed often delivers dovish surprises (though the bar for

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers: Sees ongoing work to do on inflationCore measures of CPI should decline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% No changes to the initial estimates for the August readings. It just reaffirms the slow path of the disinflation process in recent months, keeping the ECB on their toes. The central bank has said that they will pause rate cuts in October, while gauging the anticipated

Repositioning looks to be the theme in global markets today. Treasury yields are rising, which indicates worry about the Fed cutting 25 bps instead of 50 bps. However the US dollar is weakening, which indicates the opposite. It all points to more of a position squaring trade. On top of that, today’s UK core CPI

Asia-Pacific (APAC)’s online trading and fintech industry elites congregated at the iconic Centara Grand & Bangkok Convention Centre at Central World in Bangkok on 17 September, to honour the most innovative and truly the best Brokers and Technology Providers in an official ceremony organised by Ultimate Fintech. The UF AWARDS APAC Ceremony marked the conclusion

FBS, a leading global broker, presents an overview of financial market trends in the context of the 2024 US presidential elections. FBS financial market analysts particularly underscore the rising investment potential of Bitcoin in the context of Harris-Trump uncertainty. FBS analysts highlight that financial markets are experiencing turbulent times and investors are looking for safe-haven

Every forex broker must grapple with brand development, while maintaining a level of quality and service that sets it apart from competitors. Of course, countless strategies exist to achieve this goal, however the best way to showcase one’s brand is securing the Finance Magnates Annual Awards (FMAA). After much anticipation surrounding the nominations, voting is

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some more positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July. Despite that, the market is still pricing a 63% probability for a 50 bps cut at today’s decision.

The major indices are closing with mixed but modest changes. The S&P did trade to a new record intraday high level, above 5669,. but stalled just above that level at 5670.81. The buyers turned to sellers. After trading negative into the last hour of trading, buying at the close pushed the index higher. The index

Fundamental Overview Copper has been on a sustained downtrend since reaching its peak in May. A lot of the weakness has been attributed to the struggling economic recovery in China. Copper is sensitive to the manufacturing cycle, and after a pickup in the first half of the year, we’ve been seeing a notable pullback as

The AUDUSD has been stepping higher over the last five or so trading days and in the process has used a series of key moving averages that have increased the bullish bias and provided the roadmap for the move to the upside. 5 days ago, the price based against the 200-day moving average and moved

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Cable nudges up to 1.3200 after sticky UK inflation dataUK inflation data bolsters odds of BOE keeping bank rate unchanged tomorrowWhat are the main events for today?There will be disappointment one way or another come the end of todayECB’s Villeroy says likely to continue with rate cutsUK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expectedEurozone

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The Fed has a very, very big decision to make today. A rate cut is all but confirmed but the major question is by how much? They’ve been suggesting a likelihood of moving by 25 bps since Jackson Hole but market players aren’t listening all too intently.

Prior +1.4%Market index 266.8 vs 233.7 priorPurchase index 146.1 vs 138.6 priorRefinance index 941.4 vs 757.8 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.15% vs 6.29% prior A further drop in the average rate of the most popular US home loan sparked a big jump in refinancing activity in the past week. And that led to the surge in

The USDJPY is ticking above the 200-hour MA at 141.988. The next target comes in at 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high. That level comes in at 142.485. Move above that, and the door opens for a move toward 143.38 to 143.67 where the 50% is found. , This article was

A JP Morgan strategist says a Federal Reserve rate cut is not neededAustralia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”FOMC forecasts from 28 bank analysts. Forecasts for today’s cut, dot plots, 2024 and 2025People’s Bank of China will be setting interest rates this week and nextAustralian August Monthly CPI

A lot of Hezballah pagers blew up yesterday but what will it do to the oil market? Some people thought oil might surge but the chart and price action does not care about what we think. Here is oil technical analysis I see but please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.2% European equities will have to fend for themselves today, after the gains from yesterday were followed up by a more tepid session in US trading. The S&P 500 and Dow both closed flat while US futures today are also not hinting at much thus far. It’s all about

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +3.6% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.3% Coming into today, traders had been pricing in ~63% odds of the BOE keeping the bank rate unchanged tomorrow. And the inflation numbers here pretty much solidifies the notion that they will keep rates unchanged in September. That especially since services inflation ticked back higher from

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A couple of details from the report for September: Private consumption shows movements of picking up recentlyBusiness investment shows movements of picking upIndustrial production shows movements of picking upThe employment situation shows movements of improvementExports are almost flatConsumer prices have been rising moderately This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, Wednesday, September 18, 2024. at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time Earlier: Most analysts expect a 25bp interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve todayA 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut coming today? History says ‘No’. – Now, check this out. This is amazing work, collating comprehensive forecasts

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, Wednesday, September 18, 2024. at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time El Erain with the tweet suggesting pricing for the Fed cuts are too extreme. Earlier: Most analysts expect a 25bp interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve todayA 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut coming today? History

RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Jones is speaking at 9.20am Melbourne time: 2320 GMT1920 US Eastern time He is speaking at a Fintech event. I don’t expect much, if anything, on his views on the economy or monetary policy, but a heads up on the off chance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

A preview of the August CPI data due from Australia on September 25 from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. We expect the monthly CPI indicator to show inflation eased to 2.7%/yr in August, within the RBA’s headline inflation target. A large 16% /mth fall in electricity prices is the key expected driver. But disinflation in other

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon was speaking at a conference on Tuesday. I didn’t hear a specific 25 or 50 from him, but he did say that the cut is “not going to be earth-shattering.” I guess that’s a tip for 25? Although 50 ain’t gonna shatter the earth either come to think of it. More

The pair was trading around 1.3160 prior to the UK CPI report here. But it is trading to fresh session highs of 1.3205 currently. Looking at the near-term chart above, it’s still not indicative of much. Buyers are in near-term control but there is some daily resistance around 1.3200 with the August high at 1.3266

The only notable event in the European session was the UK CPI report which came out basically in line with expectations across the board, although the Core Y/Y figure was a touch higher than forecasts. We will also have the Eurozone CPI, but given that it’s the Final reading, the market won’t care about it.

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are also only up slightly around 0.1%, so it’s really not indicative of much. In FX, the pound is up slightly after the UK CPI report earlier here. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping thereabouts at 141.70 since Asia trading mostly

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.5 mn barrelsDistillates +0.6 mn bblsGasoline +0.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

But the key focus in markets today is of course the FOMC meeting decision. Will it be a 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut? That is the question. As things stand, traders are still pricing in ~65% odds of a 50 bps rate cut for today. And therein lies the balance of risks ahead

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July. The data put some pressure on gold and we might see some profit-taking given that it’s unlikely that the

The US has been slowly refilling the strategic petroleum reserve but will look to accelerate that with a purchase of 6 million barrels, according to a Reuters report. The administration will announce the solicitation as soon as tomorrow, according to the report and it will be for delivery in early 2025. In 2022, the US

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Israeli military officials via various Hebrew news channels stating full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah appears imminent. That shouldn’t surprise anyone as the pager explosions were basically a declaration of war by Israel on Lebanon/Hezbollah. The thing is, I wonder if Hezbollah is so crippled that it’s not ready to fight and/or if Israel is

It’s all about the Fed today, and there isn’t anything too significant on the option expiries board to really influence price action in the meantime. There is a decent sized one for USD/JPY at 141.00 but we might not really revisit that level until we get to the FOMC meeting later. The pair is down

Japan trade data for August 2024 … dreadful misses for both exports and imports. The ‘adjusted’ trade balance (not shown in the screen shot above) is -0.6tln yen expected -0.96tlnprior -0.76tln yen Exports to: China +5.2% y/ythe EU -8.1% y/ythe US -0.7% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A snippet via Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management: “Since the late 1980s…25-basis-point cuts have become the norm, and 50 basis points have been the exception.” Only two rate-cutting cycles have begun with cuts greater than 25 basis points: January 2001, amid the dot-com bubble, and September 2007 during the sub-prime mortgage

There is plenty top come on the data agenda but none of it is higher-tier. Note that mainland Chinese markets reopen today after holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Hong Kong is closed today. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in

The Bank of Japan meet this week, announcement due on Friday September 20. The Bank is not expected to hike rates again: Bank of Japan meeting this week – preview (no rate change expected) Ueda and his colleagues will be eyeing the data showing slowing export growth: Japan August exports +5.6% y/y (expected +10.0%) &

The Japanese Coast Guard give an alert to North Korea firing what could be a ballistic missile. In the olden days news like this would prompt rapid flows into USD and JPY. Now it’s pretty much ignored. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Westpac Leading Index for August 2024 -0.05% m/m prior –0.03% Westpac note, in summary: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, declined from +0.04% in July to -0.27% in August. Commodity price

Not so long ago, Germany was considered the engine of the EU economy. When things went wrong for other countries in the bloc, there was always the hope that Berlin would come to the rescue. But now, it seems that the safety net is slowly deflating: the country’s industrial production has fallen below 2017 levels,

This summary screenshot is via Reuters, showing the latest forecasts for the headline Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision due on Wednesday, September 18, 2024 (at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time) The latest from ‘FedWatch’ (market pricing) show 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing favours a 50bp rate cut: 63% @ 50bp37% @ 25bp I’ve

US August retail sales control group +0.3% versus +0.3% expectedCanada August CPI 2.0% vs 2.1% expectedUS September NAHB home builder sentiment 41 vs 40 expectedUS July business inventories 0.4% versus 0.3% expectedUS August industrial production +0.8% vs +0.2% expectedUS treasury auctions off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.039%Canada August

It’s a Hong Kong public holiday for the day following the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival Hong Kong Market is closed Both Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect trading is closed — China / Hong Kong Stock Connect is a mutual market access program that allows investors in mainland China and Hong Kong to trade and invest in

Reuters citing an unnamed source: US administration will seek up to 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reservewill announce the solicitation as soon as Wednesday to buy oil for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw site in Louisianafor delivery in the first few months of 2025 Department of Energy target price is $79.99

What do we make of the new dot plot on Wednesday? The Federal Reserve is due to release another edition of its forecasts around growth, inflation and — most importantly — where Fed funds are headed. At times, the market takes the dot plot as guidance on what the FOMC will do at future meetings,

Goldman Sachs anticipates the FOMC will implement a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, viewing recent comments from Fed officials as indicative of a preference for this move over a larger cut. The focus will shift towards labor market risks, and the firm expects to see a median dot plot implying three

Prior was 279.5K (revised to 279.8K) There is some measure of give-back here after a strong July number but I can confidently say that the pipeline in Canada is drying up as the investor class has abandoned Canadian real estate. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 39Current sales 45 vs 44 priorProspective sales 27 vs 25 prior This is a sign that lower rates are starting to have some effect. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

At the top of the hour, the US treasury will auction off their billion dollars of 20 year bonds. High Yield: Last: 4.16% Six-auction average: 4.512% Tail: The difference between the WI level and the high yield Last: -0.1bps Six-auction average: -1.3bps Bid-to-Cover: Last: 2.54x Six-auction average: 2.68x Dealer Participation: Last: 9.7% Six-auction average: 8.7%

Prior 0.3%Business inventories 0.4% vs 0.3% expectedRetail inventories ex-autos 0.5% vs 0.2% last month Sales: July distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments: $1,880.7 billionIncrease from June 2024: 1.1%Increase from July 2023: 2.9% Inventories: July manufacturers’ and trade inventories: $2,574.9 billionIncrease from June 2024: 0.4%Increase from July 2023: 2.5% Inventories/Sales Ratio: July 2024 ratio: 1.37July 2023

The USDJPY at the start of the US session needed to get to and through the 100-hour MA to increase. the bullish bias. It did just that after better data gave the buyers to go-ahead to move away from the lows. Yesterday, the price moved to the lowest level going back to July, but moved

Prior month 2.5%(it came in as expected)CPI MoM -0.2% vs 0.0% expected.Prior MoM +0.4% Core measures: CPI Bank of Canada core YoY 1.5% vs 1.7% last monthCPI Bank of Canada core MoM -0.1% versus +0.3% last monthCore CPI MoM SA 0.1% versus 0.1% last monthMedian 2.3% versus 2.2% estimate. Last month 2.4%Trim 2.4% versus 2.5%

High Yield: 4.039% Last month: 4.16% Six-auction average: 4.512% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.019% Tail: +2.0 basis points Last month: -0.1bps Six-auction average: -1.3bps Bid-to-Cover: 2.51X Last month: 2.54x Six-auction average: 2.68x Dealer Participation: 18.6% Last month: 9.7% Six-auction average: 8.7% Direct Bidders: 16.3% Last month: 19.3% Six-auction average: 17.1% Indirect

The below is the eFX summary of a note via Nomura on the Fed and US dollar For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. — Synopsis: Nomura expects a 25

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate was raised to 3% today from 2.5%. Now Goldman is also raising its estimate but only by 0.3% from the same 2.5%. They now see growth for Q3 at 2.8%. 2.8% or 3% and S&P/Dow at new record level, 50 basis points seems a stretch? Meanwhile the 10 year

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

The GBPUSD move higher into the European session. However as the US data came out today, and it was better than expected, yields started to move higher, the dollar started to trade higher as well, and the technicals in the GBPUSD gave the sellers the go-ahead to push lower (higher USD) . That move lower

Relative monetary policy drives currencies’ exchange rates. Therefore, the market pays close attention whenever a central bank holds a meeting and updates its monetary policy stance. This week, three major central banks—the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)—will announce their verdicts on interest rates on Wednesday,

What a run in stock markets. The S&P 500 is up 35 points today, or 0.6%, in what’s on track to be the seventh day of gains and is only a fraction away from taking out the July all-time high of 5669. So it’s a seven-day winning streak and running into major resistance. That’s a

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Bitcoin has climbed above the September high in a strong turnaround from yesterday’s selloff. It’s up 5.3% or $3000 in the best gain in a week. Bitcoin has struggled to keep pace with the improving risk appetite in September and is well-below the summer highs as US stocks flirt with records. Bitcoin has had a

This one isn’t going to make life easier for the Fed doves. The Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow tracker rose to 3.0% today from 2.5%. After recent releases from the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of

The Dow is still on pace for record high levels today, but the S&P backed off after trading to a new intraday high today. The old high was at 5669.67 from back on July 16. The high price today extended to 5670.82 before backing off. The current price is trading at 5655.43. That is stil

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Prior -0.2%Retail sales $710.8 billion versus $709.7 billion priorRetail sales +0.1% versus -0.2% expectedPrior m/m sales +1.0% (revised to +1.1%)Retail sales YoY +2.1% versus +2.7% priorEx autos +0.1% versus +0.2% expectedPrior ex autos +0.4% priorControl group +0.3% versus +0.3% expectedEx autos and gas +0.2% versus +0.4% priorFull report Heading into the report, market was putting

On the day: STOXX 600 +0.7%German DAX +0.5%Francis CAC +0.6%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% Those are some decent gains, though I would have liked to have seen a better finish as a good portion of the gains evaporated late. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The WSJ is reporting that JPM is in talks with Apple to take over credit card business from Golman. The program has over 12 million users and roughly $17 billion in outstanding balances. Apple has been seeking a new issuer after deciding to part ways with Goldman Sachs, the current issuer, last year. JPMorgan is

Price index at $3883Whole milk powder +1.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The changes among the day remain light, with dollar pairs all holding within 10 pips change currently. It’s just one of those days where even if there are any moves, one shouldn’t look too much into it. At this point, it’s all about the Fed tomorrow. USD/JPY was a bit more volatile in Asia, trading

Last month, July retail sales nudged up by 1.0% and beat estimates here. Ten out of the thirteen categories showed an increase, so that helped. But this time around, the estimate is for headline retail sales to show a 0.2% decline. That said, ex-autos is estimated to increase by 0.2% and the more important control

An incredible attack occurred in Lebanon today with 2800 members of Hezbollah and other Iranian-linked individuals wounded and 200 in critical condition. The pagers they were using exploded at the same time in what was surely some kind of long-planned attack. Hezbollah had been using cell phones to coordinate but evidently switched to pagers due

The US data this morning came in better than expected which has softened the Fed expectations for tomorrow a bit, but it is still leaning toward 50 bps. The retail sales data today has GDP looking toward 3% for the 3Q. That is pretty good. The question is “Has inflation – and expectations for inflation

Today we have quite a few top-tier economic releases. In the European session we just have the German ZEW which is expected at 17.1 vs. 19.2 prior. The most important releases will be in the American session when we will get the Canadian CPI, the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production. The US

The major US indices are trading higher at the start of the trading day. Retail sales were better than expectations. That might mean the Fed might lean toward a 25 basis points but it also means that the economy is not as bad as hoped. The Dow industrial average closed at a record level yesterday

Prior was -0.6% (revised to -0.9%)Capacity utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% expectedPrior utilization 77.8% (revised to 77.4%)Manufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expectedPrior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.7%) The negative revisions take some of the shine off this report but it’s still a a good one. In July, Hurricane Beryl likely depressed production and this is

The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos is out with a tweet that references his earlier Fed preview. There is no leak here. “The Fed faces a finely balanced set of considerations over whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting that begins today,” he writes. The argument for cutting 50 is based on

Sector Overview The US stock market is seeing significant gains today, with a notable emphasis on the technology sector. Microsoft (MSFT) is up by 1.74%, while Amazon (AMZN) shows the most remarkable increase in consumer cyclicals, soaring by 1.32%. Nvidia (NVDA) adds to the momentum with a rise of 1.68% in the semiconductor space, marking

Major currencies aren’t up to much today, with the dollar keeping steadier after its fall yesterday. USD/JPY did bounce back from lows under 140.00 to around 140.70 now, with the high earlier touching 141.25. There’s still much volatility in the pair compared to the others but this week, it’s all about the Fed. The bond

Eyes are on the US retail sales report today, and the ‘control group’ in particular that excludes the volatile components on food, energy and building materials. The consensus is for a +0.3% reading to match the prior month. Going into the data, the market is pricing in a 67% probability of a 50 basis point

I’ve noted this already, but ICYMI. China and South Korea are out againJapan is open after its holiday on Monday. As an aside, Hong Kong will be closed tomorrow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Canadian CPI report highlights how far the Bank of Canada has fallen behind the curve. Virtually the lone sources of inflation are mortgage interest and shelter, which is due to laggy rent calculations. Overall inflation is at 2.0%, hitting the target for the first time since 2021 but a deeper dive shows a weaker

That is one of the key charts to watch in markets at the moment. 2-year yields remain heavy close to the 3.55% mark but bond players will have to wait for vindication from the Fed tomorrow still. Besides that, 10-year yields are seen around 3.62% at roughly its lowest levels this year currently. In FX,

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.7%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% The risk mood today is also in a decent spot, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.15%. Nasdaq futures are up 0.27% while Dow futures are up 0.11% currently. In FX, major currencies are still not up to much with dollar

Will the US retail sales later mess up the Fed odds even more?Dollar holds lightly changed on the dayGold rally stalls as traders wait on Fed decisionGermany September ZEW survey current conditions -84.5 vs -80.0 expectedEuropean indices hold higher to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European tradingFX

The US retail sales report wasn’t a game-changer for tomorrow’s FOMC decision but it offers some angst for those who are expecting a 50 basis point cut. Sales rose 0.1% compared to -0.2% expected in a sign that the consumer is just fine. The control group, which excludes volatile components on gasoline, autos and building

Following recent success at the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit in Australia earlier this month, multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets, was presented with three coveted Global Forex Awards at a ceremony held at the La Caleta in Limassol on Thursday 12 September. FP Markets was voted ‘Best Value Broker – Global’ for the sixth

Kickstart the FX trading day for September 17 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Included today is a bonus look at the USDCAD after Canada released lower-than-expected CPI data, and the US reported better-than-expected retail sales data. The EURUSD has moved down and away from a swing area between 1.1131 and

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. Having said that, the top to bottom ranking is scrunched together with little separating the winners and losers. The market is awaiting key data is my guess. Today, the FOMC meeting starts, but it won’t end (well they

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.6% Apple shares weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq in Wall Street trading but the Dow closed at a fresh record high. The breakdown for the latter can be found below (h/t @ Yahoo Finance). So, European equities just have some catching up to do. That as the mood music

Gold jumped higher in trading last week to fresh record highs but the latest leg is falling just shy of the $2,600 mark. Buyers are still in control but it looks like we might have to wait until the Fed tomorrow before deciding on where to go from here. As traders step up bets for

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -77.3Economic sentiment 3.6 vs 17.0 expectedPrior 19.2 German investor sentiment dropped in September with the outlook also tumbling lower on the month. It’s a setback to hopes for a recovery in the economic situation. ZEW notes that there is now a noticeable decline in economic expectations. And that most respondents have already factored the

More from Japan Finance Minister Suzuki – analysing the impact of the strengthening yenBlackRock is wary on Chinese equities – measured policy support is not enoughUBS says a Fed rate cut is ‘long overdue’, but a 50bp cut might be taken as panicIs the bond market going to strong arm the Fed into a 50bp

Japan finance minister Suzuki Forex fluctuations have both merits and demerits on the Japanese economyWill respond appropriately after analyzing impact of forex movesRapid fx moves undesirableImportant for currencies to move a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals USD/JPY is up from lows around 139.60 on Monday. It hit above 141.20 earlier in the session here. Suzuki’s cage

Blackrock comments on China echoing broader market views: The People’s Bank of China has been cutting rates but it’s not in the same boat as the Fed. It’s facing weak consumer demand, excess production capacity and deflation – based on broad measures of inflation – that could become entrenched. The lack of fiscal and other

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

UBS make the case that a Fed rate cut is anticipated, and has been for some time, given the ongoing decline in inflation pressures in the US. However, say analysts at the bank, a reduction of more than 25 basis points appears unlikely. Although the Fed is behind the curve in lowering rates, a more

New Zealand Treasury report, in summary: Indicators for June quarter GDP point to a drop in economic activity. We anticipate the economy contracted by 0.4% in the quarter, down from a forecast of 0.2% growth at our Budget Update. Economic data has been weak despite a period of record migrationled population growth. However, with migration

Via the latest weekly note from BlackRock Investment Institute, says markets overly excited about Fed rate cuts: Markets expect the Fed to cut rates sharply – and we think this pricing is overdone. U.S. inflation has slowed as pandemic disruptions have faded and due to a temporary immigration boost to the workforce. We see inflation

This is a political call, nothing else. The three: Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. “It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. In fact, it may be too late: your delays have threatened the economy and left the Fed behind

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1125 level. It rests at the 38.2/61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower since August, so there’s that. But if anything else, the expiries could just keep price action stickier until we get to

Empire Fed Sept manufacturing survey +11.5 vs -4.75 expectedCanada July manufacturing sales +1.4% vs +1.1% expectedECB’s Lane: Incoming data on wages and profits have been in line with expectationsECB’s Kazaks: Interest rates will continue to be loweredWH Brainard: It is now important to safeguard progress in US labor marketFormer NY Fed Pres Dudley says it’s

It’s a very sparse data agenda. China and South Korea remain closedJapan reopens after its holiday Monday As a ps. Hong Kong will be closed tomorrow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters reporting on Goldman Sachs reiterating its optimistic outlook on gold prices. GS cite: central bank demandimminent interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve “While we see some tactical downside to gold prices under our economists’ base case of a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday, we reiterate our long gold trading recommendation and our

UBS are arguing the retail sales data could tip the balance between a 25bp and 50bp rate cut: retail sales and industrial production data … weakness in these could potentially influence the Fed decision to cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp instead of 25bp I am not so sure that one data point (or

Goldman Sachs’ projections, citing Fed rate cuts as a key driver: end 2024 target 5600 points6-month target 570012-month target 6000 points GS expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut by 200 basis points by the end of 2025 – Last I have from GS is expecting a 25bp cut this week. This article

Headline is here from earlier: Microsoft (MSFT) has announced a new US$60bn share repurchase program More detail now, via MarketWatch. In brief: increase in quarterly dividend by 8 cents, or 10% @ 83 cents a shareto shareholders of record as of November 21new $60 billion buyback programs the third largest among all U.S. companies this

Before Nick Timiraos, the WSJ Fedwatcher was Jon Hilsenrath. He left the WSJ last year but is still watching the Federal Reserve and weighed in today, saying the Fed will cut by 50 basis points on Wednesday. The Fed is on what I call an “Express Train” to a neutral interest rate. I expect it

I’ve posted on this earlier, but ICYMI and have rocked up for the daily mid-rate setting from the People’s Bank of China, I have some bad news. China is out on holiday today, there will be no mid-rate set for USD/CNY.South Korea is also on holidays today. Hong Kong will be on holidays tomorrow. Offshore

Comments from Suzuki are here from earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable Reuters adds a little more: government will continue to analyse the impact of the strengthening yen on the economy and respond appropriatelysaid the stronger yen could affect the economy both positively and negatively through various channels, such as

The Bank of Japan are meeting on September 19 and 20. The announcement will be some time in the 0230 GMT to 0330 GMT time window on Friday (they’re is no firmly set time): 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time The latest rhetoric we have heard from the BoJ has been hawkish (well, relatively, hawkish

Markets are now pricing an above 50% probability (well above) for a 50bp FOMC rate cut on Wednesday. Consider: 1. Is the FOMC going to think that if they don’t cut by 50bp it’ll trigger huge financial market volatility? 2. Or is the FOMC behind it all, drip feeding info to bond insiders to provide

Morgan Stanley analysts on the balancing act at the Fed: In the very short-term, we think the best case scenario for equities this week is that the Fed can deliver a 50bp rate cut without triggering either growth concerns or any remnants of the yen carry trade unwind—i.e., purely an “insurance cut” ahead of macro

Microsoft (MSFT) has announced a new USD 60bln share repurchase program also, quarterly dividend increase of 10% to US$0.83/share This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The investing world has largely given up on China as a growth driver this year and the outlook for 2025 continues to dim, with officials showing no urgency to turn the tide. On the weekend, new house prices fell for the 15th consecutive month. And not y/y drop but monthly. The last three months of

The US major stock indices are closing mixed. The Dow industrial average and closing at a record closing level. The S&P index is closing around 0.6% from a record closing level and is now up 6 consecutive days. The NASDAQ index is closing lower and snapped a 5-day winning streak. Shares of Apple led the

The ECB cut rates last week but the market sees them holding steady in October with just a 28% implied probability of a cut. I think that would be a mistake. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8 pts to an 8 week high.ANZ says it was a broad based rise. 84.1 is still deep in pessimism but I guess we’ll take it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $70.09. The low for the day reached $68.68. The high for the day extended up to $70.66. Technically, the price low today stalled right near its 200-hour moving average. That moving average is currently at $68.62. The subsequent move to the upside also moved back above

The days of high yielding safe investments may be over for a generation. Jamie Dimon is continuing to warn about inflation but the bond market has moved on. Breakeven rates are below 2%, implying that the Fed is more likely to undershoot its target and nominal rates continue to fall, despite swelling deficits. US 10-year

Sector Overview The stock market today presents a mixed bag with distinct sector performances as reflected on the heatmap. Technology is facing challenges while healthcare and energy sectors are showing resilience. Technology: Sectors within tech are under pressure. Microsoft (MSFT) is down slightly by 0.12%, and major setbacks are seen with Apple (AAPL), dropping 2.75%,

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.4%Francis CAC -0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 flatSpain’s IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB flat This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Negotiated wage growth will remain high and volatile over the remainder of the yearA gradual approach to dialing back restrictiveness will be appropriate if the incoming data are in line with the baseline projectionWe should retain optionality about the speed of adjustment Lane is putting 50 bps on the table here but it will take

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, we finally got the breakout in gold after a softer than expected US PPI report. That was kind of a strange move but eventually the momentum picked up and we got the rally into new all-time highs. Late Thursday we have also got WSJ’s Timiraos publishing an article suggesting that a

BofA advises against reacting to any initial hawkish market responses following the September FOMC meeting. They anticipate a 25bps rate cut and expect the Fed’s dot plot to exceed market expectations, but expect Powell’s tone to remain dovish. Key Points: Market Uncertainty: High Uncertainty: The market is highly uncertain about the September FOMC meeting, reflecting

WH economic advisor Lael Brainard is no the news wires saying: It is now important to safeguard progress in US labor market.US economy has reached important turning point in fight against inflation.Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels.It is critical to continue work to address affordability challenges and create opportunities for working families.

I could probably count a dozen instances in the past week or so of economists I respect saying the Fed should cut 50 basis points but probably will only cut 25 bps. At some point, that chorus grows so loud that it tips the balance. We’re likely at that point now with the Fed funds

The USDJPY moved to the lowest level since July 31 2023 after falling below the end of December low at 140.248. The low price extended to a somewhat random level at 139.570 before rotating back to the upside. That move has now taken the price back above the end of December low at 140.248. It

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 118 bps (59% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 250 bps ECB: 39 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 157 bps BoE: 54 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 172 bps BoC: 67 bps (76%

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest followed closely by the GBP, and the USD is the weakest. The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday and again on Wednesday before announcing their rate decision on Tuesday at 2 PM ET. A press conference will commence at 2:30 with Fed Chair Powell.

Earlier news: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmed The key headline news is that Trump is unhurt, thankfully. There are conflicting reports re the shooting: CNN reports that the gunfire at Trump’s golf club were intended to hit TrumpNY Post reports the shots were fired in relation to an ‘outside

The Canadian housing market is not looking healthy, particularly the Toronto condo market. The government is reacting with finance minister Chrystia Freeland extending 30-year loan amortization to all first-time home buyers and buyers of newly-built homes, all with CMHC insurance. Canada has gone back-and-forth on 30-year mortgages since the financial crisis. 2008: The government reduced

We’ve seen this pattern a few times recently: Positioning data released late on Friday shows extremely negative positioning in oil and on Monday there is a squeeze higher. Unfortunately, the gains haven’t lasted, at least not recently. There are already signs of that with WTI rising as high as $70.70 but now pulling back to

The USDCAD has been consolidating over the last 4-5 trading days. After reaching the high on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, the price has seen lower highs including today’s high (so far at least). However, the lows since midday Tuesday has bottomed near 1.3564. That is now just above the rising 200 hour MA at

The AUDUSD on Friday, found support buyers at the 200-hour MA (currently at 0.66949). Earlier on Friday, sellers leaned against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6733. Today, the buyers took control once again near the 200 bar MA in the early Asian session, and pushed the price higher.. IN the early

Prior +1.3%HICP +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y prelimPrior +1.6% Core annual inflation is seen stable at 1.9% and it has been relatively steady over the last few months. That’s a somewhat positive takeaway but this trend is still not yet observed in Europe’s largest economy i.e. Germany. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The strongest NY Fed manufacturing PMI since April 2022 helped to lift USD/JPY off the floor. The pair touched as low as 139.59 today but rose around 40 pips on the PMI and has continued to track higher, rising to 140.55. Aside from JPY, the US dollar is broadly lower with the euro, pound and

Greg Ip is the chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal (gated). He has weighed in on the FOMC decision coming up on Wednesday, September 18: The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision this week looks more difficult than it should be. The real question isn’t how much to cut, but where rates ought to be.

The last two trading days in the NZDUSD have developed a pattern. That pattern is to ping-pong between the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart on the topside (currently at 0.61967), and the 100-hour moving average on the downside at 0.61565. In between sits the 200-hour moving average at 0.61698. Traders are leaning on

F In the kickstart video for September 16, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pair vs the USD – the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. This week, the US Fed, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will all meet. At their last meetings the BOE cut rates by 25

Services inflation is still resisting for nowOur main concern is services inflation as suchWe don’t have a pre-determined path for ratesWe will decide on a meeting by meeting basis These aren’t anything new and it just reaffirms the policy path that the ECB is on currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been quite a turn for former New York Fed President Bill Dudley. Back in late May, he was calling for the Federal Reserve to hike rates further but now he’s saying they should be cutting by 50 basis points. The two objectives of the Fed’s dual mandate — price stability and maximum sustainable employment

This will keep market players on their toes in the days ahead, especially the Fed decision. USD/JPY is on the brink of a break under 140.00 and 2-year Treasury yields might be threatening a fall to its lowest in two years. Meanwhile, gold is surging to fresh record highs as broader markets are still taking

US stocks are mixed to start the trading week. The Dow is higher (and trading at a new all-time high), but the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are lower. Recall that last week both of those indices rose each of the trading days for the week. That came after sharp declines the prior week. The

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published a new ‘Analytical Note’ that seeks to assess monetary policy surprises and how they impact on financial market instruments. Material monetary policy surprises are defined as instances where market pricing for the OCR immediately prior to an announcement is more than 5 basis points different from the

A busy week lies ahead in terms of economic events, but Monday kicks off slowly with no significant scheduled releases. On Tuesday, the highlight will be the Canadian inflation data, followed by the U.S. retail sales m/m figures. Wednesday brings inflation data from the U.K., alongside building permits, housing starts, and the most anticipated event

Headlines: Dollar remains pinned down to start the new weekMajor central bank decisions to dominate the agenda in trading this weekECB’s de Guindos: Our projections show inflation will hover around 2% by end of 2025ECB’s Kažimír: Will almost surely wait until December for next rate cutEurozone July trade balance €21.2 billion vs €22.3 billion priorItaly

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

Japanese markets are closed today for Respect for the Aged Day. Chinese markets are closed today, and tomorrow, for the Mid-Autumn Festival. New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore markets remain open. – Even with Japan closed the yen is likely to sweing around This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

Prior 0.0% Looking at the breakdown, producer prices rose by 0.6% on the month but was offset by a 0.5% drop in import prices. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -2.1%Manufacturing sales ex-autos +1.6% vs -1.6% priorSales at $71.0 billion vs $69.6 billion priorSales -1.1% y/y vs -1.8% y/y priorTotal inventory levels +0.9% vs +0.1% priorInventory to sales 1.73Unfilled orders +0.6% vs -0.8% prior This is a good number and a nice rebound but inventories are swelling. This article was written by Adam

Japan is on holiday today, but that is irrelevant to yen buyers. USD/JPY to its lowest in 12 months, without fresh news nor data to drive it (none is needed, as I’ve been saying for a while now): The USD is lower pretty much across the board also. Even AUD, which had been troubled by

Prior €22.3 billion Comparing to last year, the euro area trade balance is showing a surplus of roughly €128 billion from January to July. And that compares to the roughly €4 billion surplus only in the same period last year. Energy price developments are of course a big factor, leading to a drop in imports.

Analysts at Bank of America are not expecting clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate path ahead from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEthat’ll be published on Wednesday alongside the rate cut decision. Nor are they expecting much guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s pres conference. BoA say that there is much uncertainty over the outlook

General business conditions 11.5 versus -4.7 priorBest reading since April 2022New orders 9.4 versus -7.9 priorShipments 17.9 versus 0.3 priorUnfilled orders 2.1 versus -7.4 priorDelivery times -1.1 versus -3.2 priorInventories 0.0 versus -10.6 priorPrices paid 23.2 versus 23.4 priorPrices received 7.4 versus 8.5 priorNumber of employees -5.7 versus -6.7 priorAverage employee workweek 2.9 versus -17.8

It may be a holiday in Japan and China but that hasn’t dampened the trading mood to start the week so far. The dollar is pushed lower as we look towards European trading, with USD/JPY in particular testing the 140.00 mark. The low earlier touched 139.94 and marks the lowest level since July last year.

The greenback is the laggard in trading today and is being pushed lower in European morning trade. USD/JPY is the standout as it nudges under the 140.00 mark but it’s not the only pair on the move. GBP/USD is up 0.5% to near 1.3200 and AUD/USD also up 0.5% to 0.6740 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is

There aren’t really any to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely more on the positioning flows in the run up to the FOMC meeting later in the week. The dollar is under pressure now with yields pinned lower and that will continue to be the key drivers in play

UBS analysts have reaffirm their bullish outlook on gold, pointing to its value as a hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties: maintains a target price of $2,700/oz by mid-2025 In brief from the UBS report: Gold has jumped by 23% in 2024, to its highest ever price, due to lower US yield expectations and diversification

Domestic sight deposits CHF 458.2 bn vs CHF 447.3 bn prior That’s the highest reading for total sight deposits since the middle of May this year. And that perhaps suggest the SNB might be in the market to rein in the strength in the franc. That would not be too surprising as they have dubbed

It would take a significant shift in the outlook for the ECB to cut in OctoberVery little new information in the pipeline before October meetingThere is no rush to cut ratesThe safest approach is to wait for the outlook to become clearer All this is very much a given now and they have guided markets

UBS says gold is its “Most Preferred” in its global asset allocationWSJ opinion piece argues the Fed should cut by a 50bp, not 25BoA analysts are not expecting much clarity from the FOMC this weekICYMI – China quietly slipped out very weak data over the weekendReminder – there is no reference rate setting for the

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures flat US futures aren’t up to much as well, keeping flattish overall to start the session. The risk mood is more tentative as market players are eyeing the Fed decision later this week as the main event. But even so, the dollar is holding softer in the major currencies

Data from China for August economic activity was terrible. Weak consumption was reflected in very slow retail sales growth. A previous bright spot, industrial production, decelerated also. Youth unemployment remained wedged at 17.1% Home prices slumped at their sharpest rate in a year. My post from the weekend included bizarrely upbeat comments from China’s National

Gold keeps on rising, no end in sight – especially with ongoing central bank rate cuts. I posted this earlier, with other factors supportive for the metal: UBS says gold is its “Most Preferred” in its global asset allocation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is testing waters last seen back in July last year. The dip below 140.00 today is threatening to firmly take out the low from December last year on the daily chart. And from a psychological perspective, a firm break below 140.00 itself will keep sellers very much in control to start the new

We had terrible data out of China over the weekend: China August: Retail sales +2.1% y/y (expected +2.5) Industrial production +4.5% y/y (4.8) There won’t be a response from Chinese stocks as markets are closed there today and tomorrow: Chinese and Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024, for holidays As for today’s

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, today is going to be a boring one on the data front as we don’t have anything on the agenda. The main event of the week is of course the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The market pricing is now more in favour of a 50 bps cut with

The key us data this week is on Tuesday, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement following the next day. UBS are eyeing the retail sales and industrial production data, saying that weakness in these could potentially influence the Fe decd to cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp instead of 25bp. UBS says

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% The start of the session is turning interesting with USD/JPY inching back below the 140.00 mark again. That comes as bond yields are staying pressured and the dollar also softening across the board. US futures are also down slightly now, with

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reports surrounding the shooting are still sketchy and we await further information. Was does seem to be clear is that Trump is unhurt, safe and well. Thankfully. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1081USD/JPY 140.75GBP/USD 1.3127USD/CHF 0.8474USD/CAD 1.3596AUD/USD 0.6709NZD/USD 0.6158 Usual warning … on a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until

Data via property website Rightmove in the UK September average asking prices for homes increased by 0.8%, double the average for the time of year in the series and the biggest for the month since 2016. -1.5 August For the y/y +1.2% prior +0.8% Rightmove cited the market getting a boost from a new government

Just a reminder to all that if you are trading emini US equity futures on the CME the September contract expires this week. There is a lot going on so you may (probably not) have been distracted. Firstly, if you are new to all this, check out: Understanding Futures Expiration & Contract Roll Alternatively, if

Both China and Japan are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024: Chinese and Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024, for holidays As a ps. South Korea is closed today also. China will also be closed tomorrow, Tuesday, September 17, 2024. We’ll not be getting a USD/ CNY reference rate setting from the

Trump Media’s stock trades on the Nasdaq Composite. It surged in price on Friday after Trump announced he won’t be selling shares in the company. That spike was so big that it triggered two five-minute trading pauses. Such pauses are routine, and are designed to provide a cooling period. They happen dozens of times a

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for August 2024 is 45.4 prior 45.2remains in contraction, now for 6 months in a row – longest period since the global financial crisis average over the history of the survey is 53.2 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: smoothing through monthly volatility, the PSI’s 3-month average remains

Gunshots were fired “in the vicinity” of former President Donald Trump on Sunday. The shooting took place at Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump International Golf Course, “where former President Trump was golfing”. Trump is unharmed. The last time Trump suffered an injury to his ear. This time nothing, thankfully. This article

The FBI, Secret Service, and local law enforcement will hold a press conference regarding the attempted assassination of former President Trump. Awaiting details. So far: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmedMore on the Trump shooting (Trump is unharmed) – Secret Service returned fireTrump shooting (he’s unharmed) – Checking indicative FX

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke in an interview with the Financial Times. FT is gated, but in very brief Macklem expressed concern about the labor market: “labor market is pointing to some downside risks””As you get closer to the target … You become more concerned about the downside risks” Those snippets via Reuters.

Shots were fired near Trump at his gold course in Florida on Sunday afternoon. Reports are still sketchy. So far: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmedMore on the Trump shooting (Trump is unharmed) – Secret Service returned fireTrump shooting (he’s unharmed) – Checking indicative FX rates – 16 September 2024

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, BoE, US & UK Retail Sales, UK, Canada & Japan CPI, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP Sat: China Activity Data (Aug)Mon: N/ATue: EZ/German ZEW (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug), US Industrial Production & Manufacturing Output (Aug), Business Inventories (Jul), NAHB Housing Index (Sep)Wed: FOMC

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI.Tuesday: Eurozone ZEW, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, US NAHB Housing Market Index.Wednesday: UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, BoC Summary of Deliberations, FOMC Policy Decision.Thursday: New Zealand Q2 GDP, Australia Labour Market report, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Japan

China retail sales, industrial output, investment data for August 2024 – another round of disappointing results. Retail Sales +2.1% (YoY) (Aug) expected 2.5%, prior 2.7% Industrial Production +4.5% (YoY) (Aug) expected 4.8%, prior 5.1% Fixed Asset Investment +3.4$(YTD) (YoY) (Aug) expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% Unemployment 5.3% expected 5.2%, prior 5.2% Also published were home prices

Crude oil futures is settling at $68.65. That is down $0.32 -0.46%. The high price reached $70.32. The low price was at $68.50 THe selling into the settlement took the price below the 200 hour MA at $68.91. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the week, moves to the close, what are the technicals telling traders going into the new trading week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

To cut, or not to cut 50 basis points. As the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaches, JP Morgan reiterates its call for a 50 basis point cut, scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Following Nick Timiraos’ article highlighting the Fed’s predicament, market odds have shifted from 20-80 to a nearly even 50-50 split. Former

Monday, September 16 (ET) 8:30am ET: US Empire State Manufacturing Index (Forecast: -4.1, Previous: -4.70) Tuesday, September 17 (ET) 5:00am ET: German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Forecast: 17.2, Previous: 19.2) 8:30am ET: CAD CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Retail Sales m/m

Goldman Sachs is keeping it 25 basis point cut forecast for the Fed next week. They also see cuts of 25 basis points in both November and December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ and S&P indices end the week with five straight days of gains Goldman Sachs sees a 25 basis point cut from the Fed next weekNext week will be dominated by the FOMC rate decision.Crude oil futures settled at $68.65ECB’s Makhlouf: ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.Go big or go small? JP

The major US stock indices closed the day with gains. The NASDAQ and the S&P had a perfect week with five straight winning days. The NASDAQ index erased it -5.77% decline from last week with a gain of 5.95%. A snapshot of the closing levels today shows: Dow industrial average rose 297.01 points or 0.72%

The comments from Makhlouf are in-line with the views expressed by ECBs Lagarde. The ECB is sittiong on the fence and waiting….even if it might be uncomfortable. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior quarter: 78.5% revised to 78.6% Details: Canadian industries operated at 79.1% capacity in Q2 2024.This is a slight increase from 78.6% in Q1 2024.The Q1 2024 capacity utilization was revised up by 0.1 percentage point. Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Capacity utilization increased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.2% in Q2.Growth driven

The USDCHF is moving lower with the US yields. The price has broken below a cluster of moving averages defined by the 200 hour moving average and the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart at 0.8478, and the 100 hour moving average of 0.84916. Stay below those levels keeps the sellers more

The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above

The Bakers Hughes rig count for the current week shows: Total rig up 8 at 590Oil rigs + 5 at 488NatGas rigs +3 and 97 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move

The CNBC retail monitor sees consumer spending cooling, but still higher: Retail sales ex auto and gas MoM: +0.5% versus +0.7% last month. Retail Sales YoY ex auto and gas: +2.1% versus +0.9% last monthCore Retail Sales MoM: 0.2% versus +1.0% last monthCore Retail Sales YoY: on .9% versus 1.7% last month Looking at the

This will include steep tariff hikes on Chinese EVs, solar cells, semiconductors, and steel among other strategic goods. More specifically, it will be a 100% duty on Chinese EVs, 50% on solar cells, and 25% on steel, aluminum and key minerals. All of which will be going into effect on 27 September. As for a

China’s bonds continue to rally (yields lower) as the economy barely stumbles along. We’ll get an economic data update over the weekend: Critical data coming for AUD/USD … this weekend! (Spoiler – China data) If there is a brgith spot it’s the rally for CNH that has given some breathing apce to the People’s Bank

Boeing machinists went on strike after rejecting a 25% pay raise.That is shuttered the going manufacturing plant Here are the main points from the Boeing CFO’s statement Strike Impact: Strike will jeopardize recovery, impact production and deliveries Cash Conservation: Laser-like focus on actions to conserve cash Union Negotiations: Want to get back to the table

Prior +6.3%New yuan loans ¥900 billionPrior ¥260 billion China’s bank lending tumbled in July to its lowest in almost 15 years but it seen rebounding back a little in August, though estimates were expecting it to climb back up to around ¥1.0 trillion. Looking at the year-to-date figure, China’s new yuan loans is totaling up

That’s a wrap for the European stock indices for the trading week, and then ended the day with gains, and the week with gains as well. For the trading day: German DAX +0.92% France’s CAC, +0.41%.UK’s FTSE 100 +0.39%Spain’s Ibex, +1.23%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.34% For the trading week: German DAX +2.11% France’s CAC +1.54%UK’s FTSE

Import prices prior month: +0.1%Export price prior month: was 0.7% revised to us 0.5%Import prices MoM -0.3% % vs -0.2% estimateExport prices MoM -0.7% vs -0.1% estimateImport prices YoY 0.8% vs 1.6% last monthExport prices YoY -0.7% vs 1.4% last month Details: Overall Imports U.S. import prices fell by 0.3% in August, the largest monthly

John Paulsen made a killing by calling the 2008 housing market bubble. A supporter of GOP candidate Trump, he is on CNBC given an interview. He says it is a good time for investingWe did have a bubble in government debt (negative interest rate times), but does not see it anymoreHe favors a 50 basis

Headlines: USD/JPY stays pressured as lower yields weighECB’s Muller: Temporary acceleration in inflation is likelyECB’s Holzmann: There could be room for another rate cut in DecemberECB’s Villeroy: We should continue to reduce gradually and as appropriateECB’s Rehn says will continue to base policy decisions on assessment of inflation outlookECB’s Vasle: We are not committed to

Prior month 67.9University of Michigan consumer sentiment 69.0 versus 68.5 estimate.Best since May 2024Current conditions 62.9 versus 61.5 estimate. Last month 61.3. Best since June 2024expectations and 73.0 versus 71.0 estimate. Last month 72.1. Best since April 20241-yesr inflation expectations 2.7% versus 2.8% last month.5- year inflation expectations 3.1% versus 3.0% last month The final

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) is the Peruvian central bank: cuts reference rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expectedsays the rate cut does not necessarily mean more rate cuts in the futurey/y inflation expected to stay within the target range on the projected horizoncore inflation expected to have a downward trendindicators and forecasts

German DAX futures +0.4%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat This follows from the gains yesterday and also the positive showing in Wall Street overnight. S&P 500 futures are lightly changed on the day though, so we’re not seeing the optimism get too carried away just yet. Just be mindful that bonds are bid

The AUDUSD is higher for the week after dipping lower earlier in the week where the 200 day moving average stalled the fall. The subsequent move to the upside was able to extend above resistance rotated back down toward support and extend above resistance and and step pattern defined by technical levels. Today the run

What a trend for gold. I posted this geopol stuff earlier, if this isn’t a good case for gold I don;t know what is: Putin warns that lifting Ukraine missile restrictions will put NATO at war with Russia Apart from that gold has plenty going for it, has for a long time: This article was

If the Fed wants to organise things in an orderly manner, the market sure isn’t letting them do so. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut dwindled after the US CPI report earlier this week but were reignited again in trading yesterday. The odds of that have moved back up to ~45% now. There

Nick Timiraos from the WSJ has tweeted that economists who map the CPI and PPI to the core PCE, are forecasting a rise of 0.13% to 0.17% for the August PCE. A reading of 0.13% would round to 0.1%, while 0.17% would round up to 0.2%. In either case (0.1% or 0.2%), it extends a

The major US stock indices are opening with modest changes. Coming into the day the S&P and NASDAQ indices are working on a four day winning streak trying to extend that to five for five this week. It is Friday the 13th. Can the markets rise above that jinx? A snapshot of the market currently

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% The drop here fits with the continued softness in the euro area industrial sector, led by the struggles in Germany especially. Looking at the breakdown, intermediate goods dropped by 1.3%, capital goods by 1.6%, durable consumer goods by 2.8%. That was slightly offset by an increase in energy by 0.3%

📈 Technology Sector: A day of gains The technology sector is experiencing notable gains today, buoyed by positive investor sentiment. Oracle (ORCL) leads the charge with an impressive rise of 7.24%, signaling robust performance in software infrastructure. However, Adobe (ADBE) is down 9.50%, suggesting possible challenges or profit-taking occurring in this stock. 📊 Sector Overview:

Fundamental Overview Crude oil is finally finding some footing this week as the dip-buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at a record 13 years low and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason

In the kickstart video, for September 13, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USJDPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it moved to a swing area between 1.10976 and 1.11042 and found willing sellers. That area will be a key resistance level today and going forward. Move above

On the economic calendar today: Canada Capacity Utilization Rate for Q2: Forecast: 78.5%, Previous: 78.5Canada Wholesale Sales m/m: Forecast: -1.1%, Previous -0.6%, US Import Prices m/m: Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: +0.1. US export prices MoM Forecast -0.1%. Previous +0.7%US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 68.5, Previous: 67.9. Current conditions Forecast 61.5, Previous 61.3. Expectations. Forecast 71.0.

Temporary acceleration in inflation is likely.Services inflation is still a concern.The Eurozone economy is awaiting moderate recovery.Confidence is growing that inflation is on the right track. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The only highlight in the European session will be the Industrial Production data, which is rarely a market moving release though. The main event for today will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report but it’s unlikely to change anything in terms of market pricing unless we get huge deviations. 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET –

The day might be spent digesting the European Central Bank decision and spitballing the FOMC one. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in

The UK and the US meet on Friday to discuss plans to allow Kyiv to strike targets inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned he would regard such an agreement as tantamount to NATO directly entering the war. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting

Both the S&P index in the NASDAQ index have been higher on each of the trading days this week. That comes after the NASDAQ index fell by -5.77% last week, and the S&P index fell by -4.25% as well. This week with a 1-day to go: S&P index is up 3.46%NASDAQ index is up 5.27%

The chance for a 50 basis point cut next week by the Fed is now up to 50-50 in volatile trading this morning. At this time yesterday the chance of a 50 basis point cut was only about 20 – 25%. Then comments from Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos where he talked about the dilemma

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) with the info, citing unnamed sources: China poised to cut interest rates on more than $5 trillion of outstanding mortgages as early as this monthSome banks are making final preparations to get ready for the upcoming adjustments on mortgage ratesSome homeowners may enjoy up to 50 basis points of immediate rate reductionTimeline has

Via Westpac on the Australian dollar: AUD/USD is showing some tentative signs of shaking off its lacklustre price action linked to iron ore prices hitting 22mth lows and rocky global market conditions. But AUD must still navigate August China activity data this weekend. August China imports, PMIs and recent credit trends, anecdotally, do not auger

Prior month -0.6% Details of wholesale sales which rose 0.4% versus -1.1% expected: Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed, and grain) grew by 0.4% to $82.7 billion in July.Sales increased in four of the seven subsectors.Growth was led by the agriculture supplies industry group (miscellaneous subsector) and the food, beverage, and tobacco

10-year yields in the US are now down by 5.5 bps to 3.625% and that is weighing further on USD/JPY today. The pair is now down 1% to fresh lows at 140.43 and that is bringing closer the December 2023 low at 140.24 as well as the 140.00 mark. The bounce early yesterday was certainly

No economist predict the BOJ would raise rates in September28 of 52 economists (~54%) expect the BOJ to raise rates by year-endMedian prediction for year-end interest rate is 25 bps higher at 0.50%Of those expecting a rate hike, 18 of 23 economists anticipate it to be in DecemberThe remaining 5 economists expect a hike in

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is mixed to lower. TGIF to all traders. The USDJPY is reacting to the BOJ not raising and the Fed perhaps going 50 bps. The day after the ECB cut, a number of ECB officials are

Broader US stock indices up for the fourth consecutive dayCPI and PPI data point to a tame ore PCE next monthWas the CItigroup trader the best trader in the world? He thinks so.WSJ Timiraos: Fed has a rate cut dilemma. Go big or go smallReuters IPSOS poll: Harris 47%. Trump 42%US Treasury auctions off $58

We should continue to reduce gradually and as appropriate the degree of monetary restriction.ECB must be attentive to risk of undershooting target.Market inflation expectations well below the ECB forecasts.The latest activity data have been somewhat disappointing.Pace of easing has to be highly pragmatic, we keep our full optionality for the next meetings.The ECB must be

Monetary policy is now on a good trajectoryInflation is much less worrisome than when ECB first started cutting rates in June”I am not per se against lowering rates, I only object when the timing does not look right”Headline inflation expected to rise temporarily in the coming months due to base effectsOctober might not be the

Will raise the retirement age for men to 63 – effective January 1, 2025.Will raise retirement age for white collar female workers to 58 – effective January 1, 2025.Will raise retirement age for blue collar female workers to 55 – effective January 1, 2025.From January 2030 the minimum period for employees to receive basic pension

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 43% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

The strike will begin at midnight Pacific Time or in just under two-and-a-half hours from now. Boeing’s US factory workers have rejected the company’s plea deal from earlier this week, which includes a 25% pay rise over four years. The union had previously targeted a 40% pay rise, so there is quite a discrepancy there.

Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television on the global bond market: sale of $39 billion 10-year US Treasury notes Wednesday had “massive indirect demand” “I can only reconcile it by the ton of cash that’s on the sideline, and the fear that if you don’t lock in interest rates now, you will lose interest income

We are not committed to any predetermined rate path.Inflation to be largely steered by core and services. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Reuters polling of 65 analysts. All 65 economists in a Reuters poll said the BoE will likely hold rates at 5.0% on September 19News on price pressures has been mixed. Wage growth cooled as members of the Monetary Policy Committee expected last month and the economy failed to grow in July. the BoE could announce

I posted earlier this week on Ftich analysts on the FOMC: Fitch says the coming Federal Reserve easing cycle will be mild and slow Fitch now on the Bank of Japan: BOJ “is bucking the global trend of policy easing and hiked rates more aggressively than we had anticipated in July. This reflects its growing

NZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). Still in contraction at 45.8 prior revised to 44 .4, from 44.0long term average is 52.6has been in contraction for 18 consecutive months BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: sub-index results for Production (46.3) and New Orders (46.8) were both the strongest they have been in a few

Eurostoxx +0.42%Germany DAX +0.27%France CAC 40 +0.29%UK FTSE +0.14%Spain IBEX +0.33%Italy FTSE MIB +0.14% The mood in the market remains broadly positive. ICYMI yesterday around 18:53 Central European Time, WSJ’s Timiraos came out with a piece which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50

ECB rate cuts are supportive of growthCurrent uncertainties emphasise the dependence on fresh data on the economyWill base decisions on assessment of inflation outlook, dynamics of core inflation, and also the strength of monetary policy transmission To sum up, he’s just saying that the ECB is on the right path in cutting rates. And that

There are venues for betting on the US election but this is seen as a big deal because IB has around 3 million customers. IB will open betting from Monday, September 16. bets on Trump or Harrisalso bets on swing-state Senate races Info via Wall Street Journal (gated) – In other political news, Trump has

The Financial Times has published a fascinating article about Gary Stevenson, a former Citibank trader who boldly claims to have been the best trader in the world. The piece, titled “Gary Stevenson claims to have been the best trader in the world. His old colleagues disagree”, is available to read in full without a paywall

After a sharp declines last week when they NASDAQ index fell by -5.77% and the S&P fell by -4.25%, each of those indices are up for four consecutive days this week. The NASDAQ index is now up 5.27%, while the S&P index as rebounded by 3.46% this week. Looking at the major indices today: Dow

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6740 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance though, so there might not be much in it. But if anything else, the expiries could keep price action locked in a little

China data this weekend: Will housing prices show signs of stabilization?Former New York Fed President Dudley sees a strong case for 50bp interest rate cutPricing for a 50bp FOMC rate cut has firmed in just a few hours, 41% nowChina’s 10 year government bond yield has fallen to a record low of 2.0775%Fitch are forecasting

Analysts at PIMCO have issued a note with what’s ahead for the US dollar as the US Federal Reserve begins it rate cut cycle. They highlight that since the 1990s, the dollar has typically weakened, albeit temporarily, following initial rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. And add that during previous cycles of monetary easing, whether

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period, which means no communication from Fed officials on their outlook for monetary policy. Going into the blackout Fed officials very much played won anything other than 25bp. And now this, the probability of a 50bp hik has surged. Its not unusual for ‘leaks’ to come though, if

Expects to reach inflation goal at the end of next year Just some token remarks there by Nagel. It just reaffirms the path that the ECB is on at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Dudley was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from January 27, 2009, through to 2018. He also served as the vice chairman and was a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). “I think there’s a strong case for 50, whether they’re going to do it

I posted earlier on the data coming from China this weekend: Critical data coming for AUD/USD … this weekend! (Spoiler – China data) All of the three major indicators are expected to show slower growth than they did in July. Via ING, more: We are generally looking for another month of sluggish growth data this

Updating USD/JPY in the abscense of any news nor data out of Japan. Just continued JPY volatility (buying really!). We visited under 141.00 eaeleir this week on BoJ comments: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This via Deutsche Bank was ahead of the rate cut (a precap?), that admittedly everyone was expecting. What makes this ECB rate cut cycle unusual is that it’s happening against the backdrop of fairly buoyant equity markets. this is the first time since 1960 that ECB or Bundesbank rate cuts have started when the DAX

Nick Timiraos at the Journal (gated) writes on the Federal Reserve questioning if it should cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point at next week’s meeting. Says: Powell kept all his options openFed nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too longfirmer housing costs in the consumer-price index

Goldman Sachs expect the Bank of England to move to consecutive cuts starting at the November meeting GS expect a terminall rate of 3% Goldman analysts cite: UK wage growth to slow down – “While the level of pay growth remains high, the sequential pace of pay rises has slowed and important forward-looking indicators have

The EURUSD is running to a new high for the day up to 1.10597. That has now taken the price of the pair above its 200-hour MA at 1.10563. Traders will be looking for more upside momentum on the break. The price is also moving away from the 100-hour MA AND the broken 38.2% of

The price of gold has been trading between $2471 and $2531 since August 16. There have been a number of different times the price low has been tested and a number different times the price high has been tested. Today, however, the price made a break for it above the topside swing area and we

Underscoring some analysts view that the US economy will not go in to a prolonged recession and may continue to have the soft landing. The Federal Reserve is reporting that US household net worth rose to a record $163.8 trillion in Q2 2024. Stock market values rose by $0.7 trillion in Q2Real estate values rose

The USDCAD is finding buyers against its rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.35756 (see rising blue line on the chart below). Stay above that moving average will keep the buyers more in control. Also in play is a 200 day moving average at 1.35889. On the topside, there is work to do to

Headlines: Euro remains boxed in ahead of the ECB laterGold Technical Analysis – Can’t get out of this rangeWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ’s Tamura says pace of rate hikes is likely to be slowBOJ’s Tamura: Cannot say whether we could raise rates by year-endSpain August final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelimChina reportedly to

The US treasury auctioned off $58 billion of the 30 year bonds. High yield: 4.015% Previous 4.314%six-month average 4.460% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.001% Tail: 1.4 bps Previous: 3.1 basis points6-month average: 0.3 basis points Bid to Cover: 2.38X Previous: 2.31X6-month average: 2.39X Dealers: 15.7% Previous: 19.2%6-month average: 15.9% Directs: 15.7%

The data shows that real median rental costs increased by 3.8% last year while real median home values rose by 1.8%, via data released as part of the American Community Survey. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau data itself shows that renter households spent 31.0% of their income on housing costs at the median last year. And

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The shelter component re-accelerated and that’s something to keep an eye on given the imminent rate cut cycle as we might get a reacceleration

The major European indices are closing higher in the day led by Spain’s Ibex which is higher by 1.08% today: German DAX, +0.97%France’s CAC +0.52%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.57%Spain’s Ibex +1.08%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.84% As London/European traders head for the exits, US indices are mixed: The Dow industrial average is down -42.3 points or -0.10% and

A Reuters/IPSOS poll after the debate shows: Harris 47% . Trump 42%Among registered voters who heard at least something about Tuesday’s presidential debate, 53% said Harris won, while 24% said Trump wonAsked which of the two stumbled and it didn’t appear sharp, Trump was the pick of 52% percent of voters familiar with the debate

The WSJ Timiraos is out with an analysis of the upcoming Fed rate decision. The title of the article says it all with the author calling the decision a dilemma. That is does the Fed go big or small (or by 25 basis points or 50 basis points). Some of the highlights; Fed set to

Yesterday, the USDCHF moved above its 100 hour moving average, eight 200 hour moving average, and its 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart. All those breaks help the pair move up toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid August high. That level came in at 0.85172. Initially, sellers

The Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations for Australia shows a drop to 4.4% in September prior 4.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia target band is 2 to 3% for inflation. Expectations are well above official CPI rates (quarterly and monthly) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB sources via Bloomberg reports: Given the downside risk in economic growth in the EU, ECB officials are keeping the door open for a cut at the October meeting Reuters is now reporting: Policymakers see an interest rate cut in October as unlikely, unless there’s a major downturn in growth The ECB cut borrowing costs

The European Central Bank meet on Thursday, September 12. A rate cut is widely expected. I posted a preview here earlier this week: ECB eyes rate cut amid weakening outlook – preview of the September 12 meeting The announcement is coming up at 1215 GMT, 0815 US Eastern time with the presser following a half

A former Reserve Bank of Australia Governor, Bernie Fraser, says the current RBA board is excessively focused on inflation: Fraser says the Board should cut the cash rateFraser cited looming “recessionary risks”, that would be devastating for the jobs market — Fraser was Governor from September 1989 to September 1996. Fraser (arrow points to him)

📊 Sector Overview The US stock market showcased a mixed bag today, with a notable divergence across sectors. A close look reveals that communication services led the charge with robust performances, while the semiconductor sector struggled amid widespread declines. Semiconductors: Major names like Nvidia (NVDA) slipped by 0.85% and AMD by 0.91%, reflecting cautious sentiment.

The major US stock indices are trading modestly higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average is up 32.49 points or 0.08% at 40894.20S&P index is up 1.49 points or 0.03% at 5555.62NASDAQ index is up 30 points or 0.10% at 17425 The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 11.22 points or

The August US budget deficit data was released early. It was expected later this afternoon. US August 2024 budget deficit $-380 billion versus $-317.3 billion estimateAugust 2023 surplus was $89 billionFiscal 2024 year-to-date deficit $1.897 trillion versus comparable fiscal 2023 of $1.525 billion deficit.US August budget outlays $687 billion versus $194 billion in August 2023.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior month 2.2% YoY. Revised to 2.1%PPI final demand YoY 1.7% vs 1.8% estimatePPI final demand MoM 0.2% vs 0.1% estimate. Prior 0.1% revised to 0.0%PPI Ex food and energy YoY 2.4% vs 2.5% estimate. Prior 2.4% revised to 2.3%PPI Ex food and energy MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate. Prior 0.00% revised to -0.2%PPI food

The IEA kept their forecasts for global oil demand broadly unchanged, seen at 900k bpd this year and 950k bpd for next year. That said, these numbers are way more pessimistic than other forecasters. That especially when you compare to OPEC, as seen here, even with their latest adjustments lower. In keeping with their forecast,

18 July12 September 2024 The Governing Council today decided to keeplower the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information broadly supportsdeposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s previousupdated assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. While some

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the North American session begins. Having said that, the major currencies are also scrunched together. Low to high trading ranges are relatively narrow with the EURUSD only having a 18 pips trading range, the USDCAD only 20 pips and the GBPUSD only 29

To watch the Press conference live, click above. The Full statement: The Governing Council today decided to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and

In FX, the changes are light overall with dollar pairs keeping in relatively narrow ranges thus far today. The euro is in focus amid the ECB later but there shouldn’t be any real surprises from the decision itself. EUR/USD is trapped today in a 17 pips range and understandably so. The pair has very large

German DAX futures +1.0%UK FTSE futures +1.1% European indices observed a mixed close yesterday but are now having to play catch up a little to the gains in Wall Street. Tech shares were the ones leading the charge yesterday, so the gains might not be too prominent in Europe as a whole. But US futures

The EURUSD is trading at 1.1026 as the press conference begins. The high for the day has reached 1.1032 after the decision. The 100 hour MA looms above at 1.10416 Headlines from commentary: Recovery is facing headwindsExpect the recovery to strengthen.Fading monetary policy restrictions should support economy.Labor market remains resilient.Surveys point to further moderation and

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.50% vs 3.50% expectedPrior 3.75%Main refinancing rate 3.65% vs 3.65% expectedPrior 4.25%Marginal lending facility 3.90%Prior 4.50%It is now appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restrictionRecent inflation data have come in broadly as expectedInflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The shelter component re-accelerated and that’s something to keep an eye on given the imminent rate cut cycle. The data triggered a repricing

The US PPI data was more or less as expected. It did not change any projections for Fed policy decision next week which is centered on a 25 basis point cut. Nevertheless, the USDJPY has been moving back to the downside. Helping the bias is the inability to stay above its 100-hour moving average at

The dollar held its ground after the US CPI report yesterday here. It was a bit of a mixed one with some emphasis on the monthly core rising. But again, it just serves to rebuff expectations for a 25 bps rate cut next week. That rather than a 50 bps move and market players had

In the kickstart video for September 12, I take a look at three the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The USD is lower after they PPI data and the ECB rate decision to cut interest rates. All was much as expected so the changes are fairly modest.

When markets are quite fragile, need to set a period to ensure it markets cool downBig and rapid market volatility is undesirableUpside risk to inflation has subsided somewhat when compared to USD/JPY being at 160A weak yen is being reversed somewhatBut rise in import costs seen earlier this year will affect inflation with a lag

Major US stock indices had a snapback day, and what a snapback day it was. The Dow industrial average was lower by 743.89 points, but is closing up 124.75 points or 0.31% at 40861.71. At one point today all the Dow stocks were trading lower.The S&P was down -88.56 points but is closing higher by

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The data triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just a 13% probability of a 50 bps cut

Prior month -13.9% revised to -13.0%Building permits 22.1% vs +7.1% estimate Building permits can swing back and forth. It is hard to make judgments when the changes are double digit one way and the other. The good news is that there does need to be more housing in Canada (Adam harps on that). So the

Dow industrial average futures implying a gain of 28.25S&P futures implying a gain of +3.62 pointsNASDAQ futures implying a decline of -12.1 points. Yesterday the NASDAQ index led the gains with a rise of 2.17%. The S&P index rose 1.07%. Looking at the US debt market, yields are up by about 1 to 2 basis

There are quite a number to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered from 1.1000 through to 1.1050. That sort of keeps a lock on things until we get to the ECB later at least. That especially the extremely large one at the 1.1000 level,

Prior 227K; revised to 228K4-week moving average 231KPrior 230KContinuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expectedPrior 1.838M; revised to 1.845M The headline figure continues to keep somewhat steady but at least down from the high of 250K last month. Continuing claims rose slightly in the latest report but the 4-week moving average there continues to point lower

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 103 bps (87% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 64 bps (100% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today’s meeting) BoE: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 57 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

The GBPUSD moved lower after the US CPI data, and in the process broke below its 38.2% retracement of the August trading range at 1.30363. The next target was at the 1.3000 level followed by the rising 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.2971. The price only got to the 1.3000 level

Eurostoxx +1.2%Germany DAX +1.1%France CAC 40 +1.0%UK FTSE +1.1%Spain IBEX +1.1%Italy FTSE MIB +1.0% This comes with US futures also sitting higher on the day, with S&P 500 future up 0.2% currently. After a bit of a setback so far in September, the bounce today is most welcome for European indices. But we’ll see if

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The data triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just a 13% probability of a 50 bps cut

-0.2% m/m for a miss expected 0.0%, prior 0.3% 2.5% y/y, also a miss expected 2.8%, prior 3.0% Falling m/m wholesale inflation and lower than previous y/y. The rising yen may well have played a role in these results – check out the graph on the right, the import index. At the margin these data

This is different from what majority of economists are expecting, that to be just one more rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs now sees back-to-back moves for the BOE in November and then December. The firm had previously forecast one more rate cut in the final quarter for this year. I’m waiting to see if

US firms optimism in China has fallen to its lowest level everJPMorgan still expects a 50bp Federal Reserve interest rate cut next weekJapan wholesale inflation dipped due to lower commodity prices and a stronger yen – recap250bp of “shock and awe” rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve does not seem warrantedAustralia inflation expectations are

Prior +2.8%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% Core annual inflation is seen easing slightly again to 2.7% at least. That is down from 2.8% in July but still not quite there yet in terms of solidifying a base closer towards the 2% mark. It’s a slow grind and not just for Spain but most

Snapback day. Major indices close higher after trading sharply lower earlier in the day.Crude oil futures settled at $67.31Fed IG said Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostick violated Fed rules on tradingUS 30 year mortgage rates lowest in 20 months at 6.11%The US treasury auctions of $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of

Reuters poll: Three out of 10 firms see rate hike to 0.5% affecting fundraising plansJapan firms want next PM to tackle rising prices, fiscal reform (The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is set to hold an election on September 27 to pick its next leader who will become the prime minister) USD/JPY update, ticking a little

Today is going to be the busiest day of the week in terms of risk events on the agenda. The highlights include the ECB Rate Decision, the US Jobless Claims and the US PPI. 12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – ECB Policy Decision The ECB is expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate

No preset idea on the pace of further rate hikesBut unlike US and Europe, rate hikes are likely to be slow for JapanExact timing on when rates can reach 1% will depend on economic, price conditions at the timeData so far shows economy moving in line with forecast from July meeting Tamura earlier called to

This is mainly to further reduce borrowing costs and to try and bolster consumption activity. Domestic demand conditions in China have suffered greatly ever since the Covid pandemic and there hasn’t been much of a revival in that area despite the world returning back to normal. The report says that some banks are already making

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Citi cited concerns over economic growth: Moving underweight equities as growth dims furtherEconomic growth indicators continue to declineHard-landing fears have set-off rising cross-asset volatilityInflation moves back to long-term targetsOur model moves slightly short equities from max-long and overweight commodities (ex energy) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Info via Bloomberg of jumbo-sized interest rate cuts to come from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Citi were expecting a 50bp Fed Funds cut on September 18 but after the CPI data on Wednesday trimmed that back to now forecasting a 25bp rate cut: maintain their projection for 125bp of rate cuts by year

I posted earlier on Citi dropping its call for a 50bp rate cut next week to 25 bp. Analysts there do expect 50bp in November and December though: Citi are forecasting two 50bp interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve JP Morgan are sticking to its forecast for a 50bp rate cut next week

Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. — Card spending Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. This article was written

None of these releases are likely to shove major FX rates around too much upon release. JPY will swing around regardless, its what it does. Yesterday we had a BoJ official driving yen buying: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments While it isn’t shown on the schedule

Fed IG releases a report on 11 Fed Pres. Bostick and his financial disclosure: Says Bostick violated federal rules on tradingBostick created appearance of acting on confidential informationBostick created appearance of a conflict of interestThe report didn’t find evidence that Bostick traded on confidential information This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura delivers a speech. Japan’s neutral rate is likely to be around 1% at the minimumthe path towards ending easy policy is still very longWill carefully examine the pros and cons of exiting easy policy Must push up short-term rates at least to around 1% by latter half of

UK Incomes Data Research survey of wage growth: median pay settlement awarded by major employers dropped to 4.0% in the three months to July, the lowest since August 2022 and down from 4.8% in the three months to June Subdued wage growth, if a 4& quarterly gain can be so described, keeps the Bank of

This was out earlier, posting here for interest. Political tensions, China’s slowing economic growth, poor domestic demand, deflation, and fierce domestic competition are the backdrop to the results of this survey, Only 47% of US firms optimistic on 5-year outlook US firms profitable in China down to 66% in 2023 Geopolitical tension rated as biggest

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Raphael Bostic is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. A report by the Federal Reserve’s Office of Inspector General has raised suspicions of Bostic’s trading: Bostic “created an ‘appearance of acting on confidential FOMC information’ ‘appearance of a conflict of interest’ that could cause a reasonable person to question his impartiality”breached the FOMC’s

Crude oil prices have been very volatile today with the price first moving higher to a high of $67.58, then moving lower to a low at $65.63 before rotating back to the upside and making new high price up to $67.97. The high price today got within $0.16 of the falling 100 hour moving average

Westpac point out that while major downward revisions to US payrolls estimates have injected a little more urgency into the US situation over the last month, the pricing in of close to 250bps in cuts by this time next year in extreme: that sort of ‘shock and awe’ easing does not seem warranted WPAC is

Japanese ‘wholesale’ inflation levels eased back a little in August: Japan PPI (August) -0.2% m/m (expected +0.0%) and +2.5% y/y (expected +2.8%) The main drivers were lower commodity prices, falling utility prices, and the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Details showed that import prices dropped significantly falling to 2.6% YoY from 10.8% in July While

Earlier this week Arno had the intitial round of numbers showing slipping China car sales: China August passenger car sales down 1.1% y/y to 1.92 mln CPCA reports Follow-up numbers from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAA) were released on Wednesday. These were ven worse, showing that car sales in August dropped by 5.0%

Close to 40% of Gulf of Mexico oil production is shut due to Hurricane Francine. The storm is a category 1 with when so 90 mph and looking to make landfall on the Louisiana coast. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kim Jong Un grabbing the headlines again This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has moved higher today and in the process, has stretched toward the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August swing high. That retracement level comes in at 0.8517, and that is where sellers started to lean against of earlier today and on the most recent hourly bar. Getting above that level would

Japan Business Survey Index for Q3 2024: 4.5% prior -1.0% Earlier data: Japan PPI (August) -0.2% m/m (expected +0.0%) and +2.5% y/y (expected +2.8%) — Japan’s Quarterly Business Survey Index (BSI) measures the sentiment of business executives regarding the economic conditions in their industries. It is compiled by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office

NZD little changed — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealandthe FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items that represent the typical spending patterns of New Zealand

Data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICs) in the UK, its house price balance (this measures the difference between surveyors seeing falls and rises in house prices) for August 2024. Came in at +1, the strongest since January 2020 expected -14prior -18 GBP is little changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

ICYMI, Greg had the details earlier: Goldman Sachs Solomon on CNBC. Sees 2 maybe 3 cuts. Could see possibility of 50 BP cut Soloman said that while there is a case to be made for a 50bp cut, citing more softening in the labor market, he puts the probability of such a cut “in the

The NASDAQ index fell -238.04 point at session lows today. It is now flipped that decline and transact 244.18 points or up 1.43% at 17269.. That is quite a reversal The move back to the upside has taken the price back above its 100- day moving average at 17158.57 (blue line on the chart above).

Major US stock indices have extended the declines to the downside with the S&P index down -1.3%. The NASDAQ index is down -0.85% and the Dow industrial average is down -1.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also lower with a decline of -1.40%. US yields have moved back higher with the two year now down

The AUDUSD moved lower after the stronger core CPI data. On the break lower, the price moved below a cluster of technical levels including the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6653, the 100-day moving average of 0.6648, and the 38.2% retracement at 0.66422. That opened the door for further downward momentum,

Sector Overview The US stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable movements across various sectors. The technology sector showed bright spots, notably with Nvidia (NVDA) rising by an impressive 1.50%, highlighting investor confidence in semiconductors. Similarly, AMD (AMD) boosted the sector’s performance with a climb of 1.49%. Conversely, the automotive sector faced challenges,

There is a report that the US is closer to allowing Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia. Nvidia shares are trading up $4.72 or 4.3% at $112.80. Moreover shares are back above its 100 day moving average at $111.57. Shares of SMC are also rebounding strongly today with a gain of $20.85 or 5.02% to $432.96.

High Yield: 3.648% Previous: 3.96% Six-auction average: 4.314% WI level at the time of the Auction: 3.662% Tail: -1.4 basis points Previous: 3.1bps Six-auction average: 0.8bps Bid-to-Cover: 2.64X Previous: 2.32x Six-auction average: 2.48x Dealers: 10.25% Previous: 17.9% Six-auction average: 16.3% Directs: 13.7% Previous: 16.0% Six-auction average: 17.0% Indirects: 76.1% Previous: 66.2% Six-auction average: 66.7% AUCTION

The European indices are closing with mixed results for September 11. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.34%France’s CAC, -0.14%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.15%Spain’s Ibex +0.67%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.12% As London/European traders look to exit, the Dow leads the decline. The NASDAQ is now marginally higher in up and down trading. Dow industrial

Prior +1.6%Market index 233.7 vs 230.5 priorPurchase index 138.6 vs 136.1 priorRefinance index 757.8 vs 751.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.29% vs 6.43% prior The average rate of the most popular US home loan dips further to its lowest since February last year. That comes amid a further drop in rates overall and that is helping

The US treasury will auction off $39 billion a 10 year notes at the top of the hour. Recall from last month this auction was not all that great with a tail of 3.1 basis points and a bid to cover below the six-month average. Yesterday, the 3-year note auction was solid (I gave it

Fundamental Overview The Yen is having another good week as the USDJPY pair dropped to new lows as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the

US mortgage rates have moved to their lowest level in 20 months. The rate today moved to 6.11%. That is down from a high of 7.8% back on October 25, 2023. Today the weekly mortgage data was reported with the 30 year mortgage rate at 6.29% for the week. When applications rose 1.4% with the

The weekly oil inventories data shows: Crude oil 0.833M vs 0.987M estimateGasoline + 2.310M vs -0.109M estimateDistilates 2.308M vs 0.313M estimate Other details: Cushing -1.704M vs -1.142M last weekrefining utilization w/e -0.5% versus expected -0.7%.Crude production 13.3M vs 13.3M previous week Crude oil was trading at $66.69 just before the release. The price is currently

Harris vs. Trump Begins with Vice President Harris walking over to Trump (he does not walk over to her) and shakes his hand. I’ll post anything interesting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.2% Wall Street saw a mixed session with tech shares outperforming yesterday. But the mood music is all around softer today, as bonds are staying further bid. 10-year Treasury yields are down 2.5 bps to 3.62%, its lowest since June last year. S&P 500 futures

Citigroup now sees a 25 basis point rate cut in September down from 50 basis points prior to the CPI (and post the US jobs report last Friday). The CPI data did not do it. Although their expectations for September have been tempered, they still expect 50 basis point cuts in November and December. This

The US CPI data came in a little bit stronger-than-expected especially from the core inflation perspective. Shelter was to blame for most of the upside. Energy prices fell and are expected to fall further in the current month. US yields moved up by are coming off the high levels. The US dollar also moved higher

Headlines: Yields fall reverberates to broader markets to start the dayUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Expectations for a 50 bps cut remain aliveWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?BOJ’s Nakagawa: Hard to comment on timing of next rate hikeFed to cut rates by 25 bps at each of the remaining three policy meetings

A Reuters poll is out and the survey of 65 economist show: 49 of 65 see one more cut between now and year-end. 16 of 65 see 2 rate cutsUK inflation to average 2.6% in 2024inflation to average 2.3% in 2025 (same as August poll). For this month, the expectations is that the central bank

Goldman CEO David Solomon on CNBC says: Environment is actually okay for bank activitythere are places where it’s exhilaratingthe economy is still in great shapeThe likely scenario is that the Fed navigates with a soft landingCOnsumer is still healthy especially in the service sector.I found the CEO sect at consumer seminar is quite positive on

We’re already starting to see some notable market moves on the day ahead of European trading. I would argue the main culprit to be the bond market, after the move there yesterday. 10-year Treasury yields fell below the threshold of what might’ve resembled a short-term bottom around 3.67%. And that is continuing today, with yields

The bulls have been huffing and puffing over the last three weeks but they haven’t blown open the door for a stronger technical breakout yet. Gold price action has been consolidating in a bit of a range recently and the next trade is to arguably go with the break that comes. I’ll continue to point

Markets remain unstable and likely to stay that way for nowNeed to look at what is behind such volatility in marketsJapan economic progress is on track based on recent data as set out in JulyImportant to look at how economy, prices react to changes in short-term rates She is making sure that markets know about

Chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, says the country is definitely in deflation, probably going through the second stage of deflation. “Experience from Japan suggests that the longer deflation drags on, the more stimulus China will eventually need to break the debt-deflation challenge.” Xing citing falling wages. Earlier this week the CPI report

Taylor Swift IG post endorsing Harris ( the sign off is funny) Apologies for all the politics folks. Hopefully we can ignore it now for a few more weeks at least This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD trended higher in August taking the price from a low on August 8 of 1.26649 to a high of 1.32659 on August 28. Since then the price has wandered to the downside with fits of bounces along the way. On Friday, the price spiked back up to 1.32377 after the US jobs report

The US stocks are continuing their decline with the Dow now down 700 points or 1.70%. All the Dow 30 stocks are lower. The S&P index is down -88 points or -1.60% at 5408.87. That is getting closer to this 100 day moving average of 5391.77. The price move below its 100 day moving average

A snapshot of the markets are showing declines across the board. After 25 minutes of trading, Dow industrial average is down -45 to .31 points or -1.11% at 40284.65.S&P index is down -37.49 points or -0.68% at 5458.03.NASDAQ index is down -29.17 points or -0.17% at 16996.71. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -16.19 points

The USDCAD has traded down and back up today. The low price earliers today, moved below the 200-day MA at 1.3589 which was a tilt back to the downside after trading above that level yesterday. However, the price moved back higher in the European session and moved higher after the CPI data today. That move

We’ve had basically zero of substance on economic policies. There was some blather (from both) about tariffs introduced by Trump during his term, and not removed during the Biden admin. But that was about it. No detail. FX not doing much. USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Based on betting markets Harris has won the debate. Screenshot via Bloomberg: Harris wants to do it all again, unsurprisingly. In October. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% It’s a mixed start to the day as risk sentiment is nudging back and forth a little. S&P 500 futures are now down just 0.2% from around 0.5% earlier as well. But bond yields are holding lower, so that is keeping

I moved from New Jersey in August 2001 to Arizona. My work in NY at the time of the move took me to the WTC each day on my commute. My work office was 2 blocks north of the WTC complex. Part of the WTC complex fell into the buildings just south of our building.

The day after the presidential debate in the US, Russia’s Putin is getting his shot in by saying maybe Russia should think about export restrictions like uranium, titanium, and nickel important commodities exported from Russia. Trump said that he would solve the Ukraine- Russia conflict before he took office in January if elected. Harris said

The bond market is in the driver’s seat and traders don’t seem to want to wait around for the Fed next week. 10-year Treasury yields have now dropped to its lowest since June last year and 2-year yields are threatening an even bigger level on the charts now: Things are certainly heating up on the

Prior month 2.9%CPI MoM 0.2% versus 0.2% expectedMonth over Month unrounded 0.187% Core measures: Core CPI YoY 3.2% vs 3.2% expected.Core CPI MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% expectedCore unrounded 0.281%real weekly earnings +0.5% versus -0.2% last monthshelter inflation rose by 0.5%food increase by 0.1% after rising 0.2% in JulytHE index for food away from home rose

The US yields are trading at new session lows. The two-year is trading at 3.598%. That’s the lowest level going back to March 2023. The 10 year yield is an 3.642%. That’s its lowest level going back to June 2023. The low in yields has the USDJPY also extending back toward session lows for the

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the markets on the release, but

Nikkei with the info: Honda Motor will reduce the number of employees at its joint venture with Chinese automaker Dongfeng Motor Group focusing in particular on workers at its three factories that produce gasoline-powered cars. And, via Bloomberg: Honda will suspend production at 3 plants for 2 weeksInventory adjustment This article was written by Eamonn

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa spoke earlier here: BOJ’s Nakagawa speaks on one-sided yen falls He has sent the yen higher. USD/JPY dropped down towards 141.50 and has since bounced back towards 142.00. Nakagawa said, amongst much lease: real interest rates remain deeply negative, accommodative monetary conditions maintainedBOJ likely to adjust degree