There is an interesting war of words unfolding between OPEC and the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ today published an article saying that Saudi’s oil minister warned of $50 oil if cheaters within OPEC don’t stick to limits. They cited delegates who were on the call. The Saudi message was “there is no point in […]

The buying in the USDJPY has pushed the price through targets at 146.204 and 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August 16 high at 145.639 (see the earlier video on the USDJPY – GO to 4:08 on the video for the start of the analysis of the USDJPY). The price is approaching the

Several reports say OPEC is likely to change compensation cut schedules but that’s hardly a market mover. All eyes are on Israel and Iran at the moment and the potential for an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. Looking at the closing levels; German DAX, -0.33% France’s CAC +0.05%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.17%Spain’s Ibex -0.55%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.28% As London/European traders exit for the day, the US stock indices are in positive territory and trading near highs for the day: Dow industrial average

The USDCAD is waffling up and down in trading today with the current price trading near lows. Yesterday, the price closed below its 100 hour moving average (blue line) and 200 hour MA (green line). That is a bearish tilt technically. Today the 100-hour moving average and 200 hour moving average are near converged at

Inflation has converge closely to ECB’s targetEuro area inflation has been anchored This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Fed Speaker Schedule via @NewsquawkUK Financial System Faces Growing Concerns Amid Global Economic Downturn FearsUnited States MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate – Actual: 6.14% Previous: 6.13%Japan’s PM Ishiba: Not in an environment for additional rate hikeOPEC+ Panel Meeting: No Surprise, Gradual Output Increase ExpectedUS Futures Lower, Dollar Retreats – @Newsquawk Market UpdateAUDUSD Technical Analysis –

I wrote about the main factors driving USD/JPY higher earlier but the move has now extended to 200 pips, including about 80 since the ADP data. Treasury yields are up 3-6 bps across the curve and some are saying that’s because of diminishing fears of Middle East war. I’m not so sure that’s the case.

Richmond Fed Pres. Barton is a speaking The Fed’s 50 basis point cut was warranted as rates were at of St. with declines inflation and unemployment rate near its sustainable levelFed cannot declare inflation battle is overExpect little further drop in core PCE until next yearWatching closely how lower interest rates influence home and auto

ECB’s Schanbel is speaking. Some highlights from her speech: Monetary policy cannot solve structural problemsReturn to 2% target in a timely manner is becoming more and more likely despite elevated services inflation and strong wage growthGrowth in the euro area has become increasingly uneven in recent years.Monetary policy may contribute to rising heterogeneity, but it

The NZDUSD is moving lower, hitting fresh lows for the day, and once again testing yesterday’s low near 0.6263. This level sits below the 38.2% retracement of September’s trading range at 0.62727. Earlier in the day, the price briefly climbed above the 200-hour moving average (at 0.6299), but it couldn’t hold, and sellers took control,

A report says that Israel’s cabinet has decided on a harsh response to Iran’s attack, but it also said the response will not lead to a regional war. That’s a fine line to walk. It also notes that the full decision hasn’t been made yet and that US political considerations will be part of the

ECB cannot exclude or commit to a rate cut in October,There will be more cut, but will depend on the dataDownward trend in inflation is sustainable and will continue This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Full Story on PiQ Suite OPEC+ set to keep output policy unchanged at panel meeting An OPEC+ ministerial panel scheduled to meet on Wednesday is unlikely to recommend any changes to policy, allowing the group to start gradually increasing production from December, two sources from told Reuters. The two sources, who declined to be identified,

Morning Blast with @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Daily – 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Listen via X here This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

There is an interesting risk/reward setup in oil at the moment as it looks like Israel will hit back against Iran. Axios reports: “Israeli officials tell Axios it will launch a “significant retaliation” within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic site” The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been spreading

US TV show “60 Minutes” will air a primetime election special on Monday, October 7, at 8 p.m. US Eastern time. For over 50 years, the program has offered both Democratic and Republican candidates the opportunity to appear as Americans prepare to cast their votes. This year, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President

Wards outlined softer US auto sales in September and Q3. Q3 2024 Highlights: Q3 sales: 3.88M units, down 1.9% from 3.96M in Q3 2023Q3 SAAR: 15.6M units, flat y/y and down from 15.7M in Q2Year-to-date sales through September: 11.69M units, up 1% y/y Hurricane Helene may have cut sales by 100-200K units. I’d also note

Full Story via Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness seen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran conducted a missile attack on Israel.Israeli officials cited by Axios said Israel will launch a strong response within days, which could target oil production facilities inside Iran.European equity futures are indicative of a positive

USD/JPY rose to the best levels of the day after the US ADP employment report beat estimates. Jobs rose by 143K in the month of September compared to 120K expected. USD/JPY broke 145 on the report and is now up 162 pip to 145.18. The broader moves are coming on both sides of the trade.

Full Story on PiQ Suite BoJ’s Ueda has been the wires, with the following headlines landing on the terminal. JAPAN’S ECONOMY RECOVERING MODERATELY ALBEIT WITH SOME WEAK SIGNSTREND INFLATION, WHICH IS LIKELY STILL BELOW 2%, LIKELY TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATEOUTLOOK FOR OVERSEAS ECONOMIES, INCLUDING U.S. ECONOMY, REMAINS UNCERTAINUNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING JAPAN’S ECONOMY, PRICES REMAIN HIGHMUST BE VIGILANT

I’ll monitor for any kind of Q&A. Barkin is scheduled to speak at 12:15 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected and 6.4% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Fed Speaker Schedule via Newsquawk SCHEDULE (BST / EDT) 14:00 / 09:00: Fed’s Hammack (2024 voter, Neutral) to speak at the 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum Text: no, Q&A: no. 15:05 / 10:05: Fed’s Musalem (2025 Voter, Neutral) to speak on “Where Research and Policy Meet”. Text: yes. Q&A: no. 16:00 / 11:00: Fed’s

For a rundown of geopolitical developments on Tuesday: Forexlive European FX news wrap: The US Dollar adds to yesterday’s gainsForexlive Americas FX news wrap: Iran hits Israel with missile attack The significant escalation sent oil prices higher. Brent has traded up near $74.50 during Asia time. Its going on towards 5 am in Israel and

Prior was +99K (revised to +103K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.7% vs 4.8% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 6.6% vs 7.3% priorServices +101K vs +72K priorGoods +42K vs +27K priorThere was strength in construction, education and leisure/hospitality USD/JPY is at the highs of the day after this report, breaking 145.00 and up nearly 150 pips on the

The major US stock indices are lower in early US trading as the markets digest geopolitical risks (Iran and Isreal), the US port strike and the implications, stronger ADP employment, and Fed policy. Israel and Iran are on the precipice of a bigger conflict with some saying this is the opportunity to take out some

The analysts consensus for Q3 deliveries was 463,310 but the whisper number was 472K based on VIN numbers. Tesla reported deliveries of 443,956 and production of 410,831 for Q2. The likely bigger market mover for Tesla will be the robotaxi event on October 10 and shares have risen 20% in the past month in anticipation.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap highlights a pronounced divergence in sector performance. The energy sector stands out, exhibiting robust gains, driven by Exxon Mobil (XOM), which is up by 1.53%. This surge is likely attributed to rising oil prices and increased demand expectations. On the contrary, the healthcare sector is under pressure, with major

The kickstart video for October 2, takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The ADP jobs report came in stronger than expected and that has the USD moving a touch although the EURUSD and GBPUSD is consolidating and looking for the next shove. The USDJPY is moving higher. EURUSD: The EURUSD fell

Crude oil inventories +3889K vs -1250K expGasoline inventories +1119K vs +450K expDistillates inventories -1284K vs -1400K expRefinery utilization -3.3% versus expectations of -0.5%. Previously -1.2% I wonder if there isn’t some kind of skew here due to hurricane preparations. The private oil data showed a decent draw and a bigger draw in distillates. This article

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed to start the day. The newest “day after” is the day after the Iran attack on Isreal. The question now is what, if any, is the response? Will Isreal target more important Iranian strategic sites?

Full Story on PiQ Suite Worries about risks to the UK financial system posed by a global economic downturn have risen sharply to their highest level since the second half of 2019, a Bank of England (BOE) survey showed on Wednesday. The Bank’s twice-yearly systemic risk survey polled 55 financial firms between July 23 and

The USDCHF has broken to the upside today at 18 price moved above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart had 0.8486. Recall from last week the high price for the week stalled right near that moving average and found willing sellers. Breaking above today is a technical shift to the upside. It

Full Story via EMW on PiQ Suite South Korean CPI inflation eases to 1.6% y/y in September on falling transport prices Core CPI rises by 1.8% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y in August Fresh food prices stabilize at low 3% y/y growth CPI print increases odds that BOK will ease in October meeting CPI inflation

Full story via PiQ Suite President Joe Biden’s administration heaped pressure on U.S. port employers to raise their offer to secure a labor deal with dockworkers on strike for a second day on Wednesday, choking half the country’s ocean shipping. The strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) union has blocked everything from food to

Risks to growth are still tilted to the downside.Economic recovery is to strengthen over time. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Not in an environment for additional rate hike.I want to coordinate with the BoJ on the economy.I want to make the economy strong with an economic package.We will do all we can to overcome deflation.I expect the BoJ to conduct policy to exit from deflation based on 2013 accords.I expect the monetary easing trend to

Federal Reserve speakers Wednesday include Barkin, Hammack, Musalem and BowmanANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest rate cut next weekJapan’s Eco Min says not necessarily correct that Ishiba positive about further rate hikesMainland China is on holiday, leaves Hong Kong to ramp shares even higherSouth Korea promises bold,

Looking at the S&P 500 index, it is down by -59.03 pointer -1.02% at 5702.88 . The low price for the day extended to 5681.28. The high price is at 5757.73. On the downside, the rising 100-hour moving average comes in at 5675.06. So the low price at 5681.28, got within about six points of

via the ECB’s website – ECB’s Lane has released a slide deck titled “Expectations and Monetary Policy” LINK As the the fine fellas at Newsquawk have noted, it’s very hard to infer much here given we are yet to hear any comment from Lane on this.All a bit random. This article was written by Ryan

Full Story on PiQ Suite The idea of an “Asian NATO” floated by Japan’s new prime minister is one to consider in the mid- to long-term but not imminent, the new foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, said on Wednesday. Asian nations have expressed skepticism and reticence in response to the call from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba,

The runway at Miyazaki airport in southwest Japan was closed Wednesday after an explosion was reported, local authorities said. The runway closure has led to the suspension of all Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways flights to and from the airport, according to the airlines. Local firefighters said they received a report at around 8:10

via PiQ Suite Citi has joined a growing number of banks in expecting the ECB to cut policy rates by 25 bps in OctoberExpects ECB to cut rates in October, December and through the start of 2025, to reach a deposit rate of 1.5% by September 2025Given recent comms from Lagarde, a 25 bps cut

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Latest U.S. Mortgage Data: 30-Year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.14% Previous: 6.13%Mortgage Applications (WoW) Actual: -1.3% Previous: 11.0%Mortgage Market IndexActual: 292.3 Previous: 296.1Purchase Index Actual: 149.3 Previous: 148.2Mortgage Refinance IndexActual: 1,099.5 Previous: 1,132.9 This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Not a lot of substance on the economy from either of these two. My expectation of anything substantive was basically zdero. That was delivered. I posted a bit of a preview via BMO here: the market appears more focused on the immediate implications of the Middle Eastern conflict and the upcoming employment data Yep. This

OPEC+ members not sticking to their agreed quotas??? No Sh*t!!A story as old as the cartel itself. Kingdom called out members for overproducing, in what was seen as a veiled threat of a price war The Saudi oil minister has said that prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if so-called cheaters

Always a ‘must read’ from the lads at Newsquawk LINK TO FULL NOTE Summary – European bourses are generally on a firmer footing whilst US futures are modestly lower with slight underperformance in the RTYDollar is flat unable to continue the prior day’s geopolitical-indued gains, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY around 144.25USTs are flat and Bunds

South Korean Vice Finance Minister: Will take immediate, bold measures if market volatility heightens excessively No further details at this stage. Earlier in the session were encouraging inflation data from South Korea: South Korean September consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since February 2021 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Info comes via Reuters report. South Korea September consumer price index +1.6% y/y (Reuters poll +1.9%) +0.1% m/m (Reuters poll +0.3%)Core CPI +2.0% y/y vs +2.1% in AugustSeptember consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since February 2021Core CPI marks slowest rise y/y since November 2021 South Korean finance minister remarkson the lower inflation data,

Full Story on PiQ Suite Global asset prices remain stretched and are vulnerable to a big fall as investors grow more concerned about geopolitical risks, the Bank of England said on Wednesday. The BoE said overall risks to British financial stability were unchanged compared with its last assessment in June, but that it would be

Full Story on PiQ SuiteJapan’s central bank must be vigilant to fallout from unstable markets and global uncertainties, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, sharpening the focus on the need to bolster economic recovery and for caution on raising rates. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Tuesday urged the BOJ to maintain loose

Full Story on PiQ Suite The dollar held onto its biggest gains in a week on Wednesday after an Iranian missile attack on Israel drove the buying of safe haven assets as investors fretted about the widening of conflict in the Middle East. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.1069, following its

Full Story on Newsquawk IRAN’S MISSILE ATTACK ON ISRAEL: Iran’s IRGC launched nearly 200 missiles towards Israel, targeting military bases and civilians. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they targeted three Israeli military bases in a missile attack and used hypersonic ‘Fattah’ missiles in the Israeli attack, according to state TV. The attack was in retaliation for

Japan’s newly appointed Economy Minister Akazawa hasn’t learnt about FX volatility yet! Says not necessarily correct that Prime Minister Ishiba positive about further rate hikes complete exit from deflation is top prioritysays Bank of Japan should be careful about raising rates given it takes time to completely exit deflationIshiba’s comments on need for monetary policy

Crude oil futures are settling at $69.83. That’s up $1.66 or 2.44%. The high price extended to $71.91. The low price that $66.36. Iran launched missiles at Israel, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Israel intercepted most of the missiles, easing immediate concerns. Meanwhile, Israel intensified airstrikes on Hezbollah, killing its leader, and

A BMO note previews the debate coming up between Vance and Walz. I popped this up earlier: Tune in for the Vance vs. Walz debate at 2100 US Eastern time (0100 GMT) In the note BMO say that given the unpredictability of this election cycle, the debate is expected to draw significant attention, and that

Full Story via PiQ Suite Futures in Japan face hangover from BoJ’s bond-buying binge Japan’s $9 trillion bond market is bracing for disruption as a shortage of paper caused by the central bank’s massive buying is expected to hit the settlement of derivatives used by investors and the dealers who underwrite the nation’s debt sales.

Goldman Sachs note on the US port strike, in summary: estimate that a 10-day full shutdown of East Coast and Gulf Coast ports would result in a 0.2pp hit to quarterly annualized GDP growth in Q4Most transportation-industry strikes since 2000 have lasted less than 2 weeks. In order to weigh on October payrolls, the strike

Mainland China is off on holiday until Tuesday October 8. Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect is closed until then too. Hong Kong is going it alone though, with stocks ramping stunningly higher yet again today. The moves are in response to all the stimulus announced from China last week. Earlier: China is on holidays –

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Outside of the US these two are little known. On the Democrats side, Kamala Harris’s running mate is Tim Walz former high school teacher and football coachfirst elected to Congress in 2006, representing a rural district in Minnesotaquit Congress in 2019 to become the state’s governorknown as ‘Coach’ Walz On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s

I posted earlier on the cascade of calls coming in for a 50bp interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the meeting on October 9. More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZHere is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ

US east coast port workers are on strike: nearly 45,000 workers are out on strikeas far north as Maine to as far south as Texas However, west coast ports are still open and rockin’ business. Via NBC in LA: Ports in California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and British Columbia are unionized under the “International Longshore and

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus

This comes via Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated). In brief: The mines in Spruce Pine, N.C., about an hour outside of Asheville, produce a unique kind of high-purity quartz used in semiconductor manufacturing. The town is the only place in the world where the uniquely high-quality mineral can be found in such large quantities

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower as geopolitical concerns weigh on the market sentiment. Iran’s missile attack on Israel seemed to be a choreographed theatrical performance but was real and that often leads to a knee-jerk reaction to the downside. Apple expectations for iPhone sales also were a drag. The number of

Forecasts of a 50bp interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on October 9 are piling up: More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ Here is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ next week HSBC, too, are calling for a

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 1300/0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack gives welcome remarks before the 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 1405/1005 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference

The J.P.Morgan / S&P Global Market Global Manufacturing PMI was published overnight Tuesday, coming in at 48.8 in September. Output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases all fell, contributing to the contraction.Suppliers’ delivery times were the only component making a positive contribution.Manufacturing production decreased for the first time in 2024 due to reduced new

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.3 mn barrelsDistillates -1.5 mn bblsGasoline -0.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Justin is off for a few days. I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 For the 10am New York cut today, Wednesday, October 2, 2024: USD/JPY 144.00 (USD832m), 139.00 (USD560m) EUR/USD 1.1025 (EUR2.11b), 1.1125 (EUR1.48b), 1.1100 (EUR1.21b) AUD/USD 0.6950 (AUD495m), 0.6800 (AUD480m) USD/CAD 1.3500 (USD487.8m) NZD/USD 0.6300 (NZD638m), 0.6230 (NZD582m) USD/CNY 7.1100 (USD400m) For more information

Via a Goldman Sachs note, analysts there say all the excitement over Chinese stimulus measures is a tad misplaced, they only expect a 40bp boost to GDP. There is no doubting the impact on sentiment, Chinese equities exploded higher right through until the holidays started on Tuesday (China reopens on October 8 – its long

I posted yesterday on the 50bp rate cut projection from BNZ: More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ Westpac NZ too, has lowered its projections for the Official Cash Rate (OCR), now anticipating 50 basis point cuts in both October and November. According to the latest analysis from

The arrow highlights when the first reports of Iran attacks hit and now AUD/USD has recouped a bit more than half of the drop. There are no reports of casualties in Israel following the attacks, though information is limited. For now, the market is taking a breather. The S&P 500 has trimmed the decline to

Lagarde spoke on Monday, expressing confidence on dropping inflation and that the Bank would not wait until the target is hit before cutting again. The Wall Street Journal (gated) gather together a few analysts now locking in an October 17 rate cut: “Anything other than an October cut will now be difficult to justify,” said

There are post-attack highs ongoing in cable, the euro and commodity currencies. There is less enthusiasm in stocks, with the S&P 500 stalled and still down 38 points. The market is steadily recovering after the attacks and so far the market is tentatively-optimistic that escalation can be contained. Cable is still in a big hole

UBS gold forecasts from a note on rising conflict in the Middle East: end of 2024 forecast is to USD 2,750by Q4 2025 to USD 2,900 In brief from the note: anticipate that global markets will face occasional disruptions but do not foresee a full-scale conflict between Israel and Iranexpect energy flows from the Middle

A second round of Iranian missiles is on the wayIsraeli military says 10M civilians were targeted by the missilesIsraeli finance minister says Iran will regret this moment as it regretted Gaza, Hezbollah, and the state of LebanonHeavy gunfire continues in Beirut Iran says they launched tens of missiles to Israel. Israel will be targeted once

The Iranian bombs have stopped falling and so has the stock indices. The Dow industrial average is trading down as much as -384.52 points. It is currently down only 54 points or -0.12%.The S&P index traded down as much as 81.20 points. Is currently down -38.93 points or -0.67%.The NASDAQ index traded down as much

Missiles have been launched from Iran toward Israel. Missiles entering airspace in TelAvivIran says its response to Israel has been carried outIDF spokesperson: We will respond to Iranian missiles at the appropriate time and placeUS September ISM manufacturing index 47.2 vs 47.5 expectedUS August construction spending -0.1% vs +0.1% expectedUS Sept S&P Global final manufacturing

An Israel Defense Force spokesman says that the Air Force will carry out “powerful airstrikes” tonight, throughout the Middle East I’d be careful with this for now as some of the reports say decisions about such attacks will be taken tonight. Lending credence to the report is that Iran has cancelled all flights until 10

Prior was -7.7Revenue index +10.1 vs +8.7 prior (highest in 13 months)Employment +2.0 vs +0.6 priorCompany outlook +1.2 vs -3.1 priorSix month index +17.4vs +12.4 prior Comments in the report: Utilities I feel the economy is getting better. Professional, scientific and technical services Our employees are very overworked. We have had a very difficult time

Data is here: Australian August retail sales +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4%) The Australian Bureau of Statistics have slotted in a ready made narrative: “Retail spending was boosted this month by warmer-than-usual weather for this time of year. “This year was the warmest August on record since 1910, which saw more spending on items typically purchased

There are no additional threats at this timeMany missiles were intercepted, there were some strikesThis attack was serious and will have consequencesWe are not aware of any casualtiesWe have plans. We will act at the time and place of our choosing There are some reports saying the response will be different to the one in

Iran’s mission to the UN has posted a statement. It’s similar to the one posted after the April attack and appears to be aimed at de-escalation: Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime—which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic

The GBPUSD downside has continued with the price breaking below its 38.2% retracement of the September trading range at 1.3268 and has move down to test the rising 100 bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 1.3243. The low price just reached 1.3244.For the EURUSD, the price is falling below a swing area between

WTI crude is up 5% and flirting with the highest levels in a month after Iranian strikes on Israel. So far there are no reports of casualties (though it’s early) and it appears Iran is done. However there are many videos circulating online of the missiles striking targets. The question now is: How will Israel

As the NA session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is stronger a day after Fed Chair Powell tapped the brakes saying that two 25 basis point cuts were likely if the trends continue. Powell indicated that monetary policy will gradually move toward a neutral stance if

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. Thread to post financial markets trading ideas – Post ’em if ya got ’em! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The yen has a strong bid and risk assets are slumping after an Axios report suggested the White House believes that Iran is preparing to launch missiles at Israel. AUD/JPY highlights the move: The S&P 500 is also down 40 points and Treasury yields are down 10 bps at the long end. More on the

The AUDUSD and the NZDUSD are both lower as risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions hurt what has been a bullish bias in the pairs. The AUDUSD reached the highest level for the year yesterday forming a double top in the process (going back to February 2023). The double top, did give sellers the go-ahead to

There has been another hiccup in risk trades in the past few minutes, though less so in bonds. It could be that some fresh details are crossing on Iran’s plans to strike imminently. The first is from the Israeli media and says: Three Israeli officials quoted anonymously by the NYT say that Iran would likely

The info from the Bank of Japan this morning is here: Bank of Japan September meeting ‘Summary of opinions’ there were signs on the day of the meeting of the Bank being cautious on further rate hikles due to market volatility. So the Summary expressing the same is not fresh news. Its been enough to

Have respect for all exporters, I know the strong Frank makes situation difficult for them.The main problem first was exporters is the lower demand abroad.Last week we did not rule out further interest rate cuts.Cannot rule out any measures, but nobody likes negative interest rates.The SNB cannot rule out negative interest rates. We rule nothing

Israeli military is announcing: Assassinates Mohammed Jaafar Qasir, the commander in charge of weapons transfer from Iran and its affiliates to Hezbollah. The surgically planned weakening of Hezbollah is continuing and will continue. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A difficult start does not always lead to a dismal end, especially in the markets. September started on a bleak note, but by the end of the month, the indices had performed surprisingly well. To clarify, they stumbled after hearing that the manufacturing sector had declined for the fifth month, along with disappointing labor market

Final Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. 51.5 expected and 52.5 prior. Key findings: Growth of output and new orders ease slightly. Business confidence down to nine-month low. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The UK manufacturing sector is still expanding at a solid, albeit slightly slower, pace. Output rose for the fifth successive

Prior month 7.673M revised to 7.711MJob openings 8.040M. Vacancy rate 4.8% versus 4.6% last month Quits rate 1.9% versus 2.0% last month (revised from 2.1%)Separations rate 3.1% versus 3.2% last month Details: 1.3 million fewer openings than the previous year Increases in construction (+138,000) and local government (+78,000) job openings Decrease in other services (-93,000)

ECBs Kazaks says The European Central Bank (ECB) has a “clear-cut” case for cutting interest rates at its next meeting, as the euro zone’s economy nears a tipping pointInvestors have already priced in a rate cut for the ECB’s October 17 meeting, driven by lower-than-expected inflation and growth data, and messaging from ECB officials like

Euro falls to fresh lows on the dayEurozone September preliminary CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expectedUK September final manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. 51.5 prelimECB’s Rehn: The scale is tipping towards a rate cut in OctoberUS, China reportedly set to hold talks on trade and economic tiesECB’s Rehn: Direction of monetary policy is clearEurozone September final

Missiles have been launched from a brand toward Israel.The 2nd wave grants missiles will reach Israel in about 75 minutesIran is expected to launch 242 250 missiles in two ways at four targets in Israel, including Mossad HQ and three airbases (as per ABC News) The script is playing out. The question is how successful

Sky News Arabia is out with a report that Iran informed “international parties” of the scale and timing of its anticipated attack on Israel, citing a US Department of Defense official. Well that pretty much confirms that this is all theatre. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.8%Whole milk prices +3.0% NZD/USD is down 67 pips today or 1.1% to 0.6281. Yesterday it touched the highest in over a year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche is the latest to revise their call and sees the ECB cutting rates in October now. However, they’re going a little further than others in factoring in the potential for a 50 bps rate cut in December. The firm says that it could be a close call if recent weaker growth and inflation trends

Prior 45.8 The manufacturing sector woes continue in the euro area, largely thanks to Germany. The region’s backbone continues to see its industry suffer and that is weighing further on overall sentiment. Both new orders and output were seen declining at their fastest pace for the year, highlighting the issues plaguing the Eurozone at the

Manufacturing PMI 53.0 vs. 50.2 expected and 50.5 prior. Key findings: Solid gains in both output and new orders signalled. Return to growth in employment. First cut in output charges since April. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Spain is and remains the outlier among the

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% European indices ended September trading on a softer note but there is some light optimism early in the day here. The overall risk mood is more mixed though as US futures are down marginally by 0.1% currently. So, the changes are light and there will be US data

The GDP tracker was boosted in the prior release but it’s been reeled back in. “After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth

The pressure is back on the euro now as traders are rebuffing expectations for a rate cut by the ECB in October. That comes after Rehn was out saying that the scale is tipping towards that now, at least in his view. It’s the first sign of any ECB policymaker confirming the recent shift in

Hopes AI will serve as a counterweight to inflationProductivity improvements from AI will come with long and variable lags I think markets continue to underestimate the macro impacts of AI and robotics. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is moving to a new low an din the process is moving further away from swing area above between 1.33308 and 1.33393. On the downside, the 38.2% is the next key target for traders which comes in at 1.32683. Below that and the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.8% The readings are as expected with headline annual inflation ticking below 2% for the first time since 2021. That said, core annual inflation only eased ever so slightly to 2.7%. So, that’s still the bigger focus with services inflation continuing to sit higher mostly. But all

Prior month -0.3%Seasonally adjusted annual rate $2,131.9 billion vs $2,162.7 billion priorConstruction spending +4.1% y/y in AugustPrivate construction -0.2% m/mPublic construction +0.3% m/mResidential -0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/yNonresidential +0.1% m/m, +5.2% y/y Construction spending dipped slightly in August but remains solidly higher compared to last year. The housing sector continues to face headwinds, while nonresidential and

The report is via China’s Xinhua news agency, which says that China commerce minister Wang Wentao will be holding a call with his US counterpart some time in the near future. The call is said to involve discussing trade and economic ties, according to people familiar with the matter. At this stage, any developments regarding

Prior 43.9 There is a slight revision higher to the initial estimate but it still points to a downturn in France’s industrial sector at the end of Q3. Both output and new orders continue to show deep declines but at least the pace of that is easing. HCOB notes that: “The French industrial sector remains

Yeah, that’s usually the reason central banks cut rates. The services sector is solid and the industrial sector subduedExpect Swiss growth to be subdued in coming quarters This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

First reading above 50 since April 2023Prior was 49.5New orders increase slightly, but export orders continue to declineInput cost inflation accelerates to 17-month highOutput nearly stabilizes, employment rises marginallyFirms more optimistic on outlook, citing hopes for post-US election stability and lower interest ratesEmployment increased marginally Commenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director

The USDCAD pair has moved lower during the North American session as declining US yields and rising oil prices weigh on the pair. Technically, the price has fallen below the 200-hour moving average at 1.3509, while finding support near the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3494. Trading between these moving averages reflects a neutral technical

The American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee brings together15 chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks. The Committee chair notes the Fed is close to achieving its dual mandate, but warns the softening labor market needs monitoring Fed seen cutting rates by additional 150bps through end-2025Sees solid 2% growth in H2 2024 and

The U.S. stock market today presents a blend of cautious optimism and sector-specific setbacks, as evidenced by the latest heatmap data. Let’s dive into the details: 📈 Technology Sector: Steady Growth with Highlights The technology sector showcases a mixed but generally positive outlook, with several key players registering gains. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) has climbed by

Comments from Barnier: Will reduce deficit to 3% in 2029First remedy to bring down debt is to reduce spendingIn 2025, two-thirds of effort will focus on cutsBudget situation also requires targeted measures on tax policyWe will ask large companies and richest part of population to contribute to effort around finances It’s going to be a

In April, Iran launched around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles towards Israel. Most were shot down while a few landed near Israeli military facilities. CNN cites a senior White House correspondent saying the attack looks to be a similar size. A separate report from Reuters suggests the attack

Prior was 47.2Prices paid 48.3 vs 54.0 priorEmployment 43.9 vs 46.0 priorNew orders 46.1 vs 44.6 priorProduction 49.8 vs 44.8 priorSupplier deliveries 52.2 vs 50.5 priorInventories 43.9 vs 50.3 priorBacklog of orders 44.1 vs 43.6 priorNew export orders 45.3 vs 48.6 priorImports 48.3 vs 49.6 prior The ISM Manufacturing index remained in contraction territory in

The title of the speech is “Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal”. These are his first comments since the Sept 18 FOMC press conference. More to come Risks are two-sided, decisions will come meeting by meetingWe do not need to see further cooling in the labor market to achieve targetEconomy is

Prelim was 47.0Prior month was 47.9 The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Markets in mainland China are closed today, Tuesday, October 1, 2024. They reopen for trade on Tuesday 8 October. Hong Kong markets are also closed on Tuesday, October 1, 2024 for the National Day holiday. They reopen on Wednesday, October 2, 2024. ‘Stock Connect’, both directions, will be closed as per the mainland China holidays

It’s October and tonight is the Vice-Presidential debate. That means we’re now into the weeds of the election and it’s worth highlighting equity market performance in the past 24 election cycles. Bank of America crunched the numbers and they show a struggle in the first 10 trading days of October. The good news is that

S&P 500 futures are pointing modestly lower today but it’s been the best year-to-date run through three quarters since 1997. That year the market ran up nearly 30% as it was hyped by a technological breakthrough (sound familiar?) and a surprisingly strong economy. What happened next? The market eeked out a Q4 gain but it

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% This comes with US futures also seeing marginal changes, down by 0.1% so far on the day. That is keeping a more tentative mood in markets to start the session, with the dollar holding steadier for the most part. USD/JPY is

From Axios’ Barak Ravid: Senior White House Official tells me: “The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel” He continues: Senior White House Official:“We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry

National Bank highlights the dim prospects in the Canadian jobs market: Private sector job growth anemic at just 0.2% in first 8 months of 2024Labour force grew 2.0% in same period – largest gap outside of recessionPrivate sector job vacancy rate plummets to lowest level since 2016CFIB data shows SMEs less concerned about labour shortagesNBF

In the kickstart video for October 1, take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What are the trading biases? Where are the target? Where are the risks? In the EURUSD, the price moved sharply lower helped by weaker PMI and/CPI data. The next key target area comes between 1.1061 and 1.10678. That

Will consider delivering payouts to low-income households hit by rising living costsWill carry over, steadily push through growth strategy of former PM Kishida to achieve growth driven by higher wages, investmentWill pursue fiscal policy that puts highest priority on ending deflationI hope BOJ maintains easy monetary policy as a trend USD/JPY has ticked higher on

The US stock is taking on some downside heat at the open as Axios reports that Iran is planning an imminent attack on Israel. A snapshot of the market 7-minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average is down -303.11 or -0.72% at 42027.04.S&P is -41.57 points or -0.72% have 5720.57NASDAQ index is down

Bank of American is out with a good note highlighting that ‘markets stop panicking when central bank start panicking’. Now, I’m not sure markets were panicking (especially not outside of China) and I’m not sure central banks are panicking either but they’re cutting rates. In any case, there are many good points here and they

Prior 49.0 The Swiss industrial sector sees a slight improvement in September, now moving to near stabilising levels. The nudge higher in the past month owes to a pick up in new orders and also improving employment conditions. Procure notes that this raises hopes for a recovery in the coming months. This article was written

Japan finance minister Suzuki: FX interventions during term were significant decisions, were meaningfulFX intervention should be infrequentAim is for economic growth combined with fiscal health weak yen has positive and negative impacts on economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZByteDance (TikTok owner) plans new AI model trained with Huawei chipsAustralian dollar a touch higher after better than expected retail sales dataAustralian August retail sales +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4%)BNZ forecast a 50bp interest rate cut from Reserve Bank of New Zealand next

Associated Press with the hopeful report, In brief: strike deadline loomingthe union for 45,000 dockworkers and the group representing East and Gulf Coast ports have exchanged wage offersleaving a ray of hope that a deal can be reached without a major work stoppageU.S. Maritime Alliance, which represents 36 ports from Maine to Texas, said that

Fundamental Overview The USD got a bit of a boost yesterday as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40%. The focus remains on the economic data. If we

Manufacturing PMI 48.3 vs. 49.0 expected and 49.4 prior. Key findings: Sharper decline in production volumes in September. Total new orders down markedly, with exports falling sharply. Cost pressures cool notably, while charges discounted slightly. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The situation in Italy’s manufacturing

In the European session the main event will be the release of the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The market has already fully priced in a back-to-back cut in October, so it’s unlikely that the data will change those expectations unless we get big deviations from the expected numbers. We will also get the final PMI

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost yesterday as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40%. Moreover, overnight the BoJ Summary of Opinions showed

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. The price action since last week shows that it might take a bit to travel there but if it does, the expiries will act as a bit of a defensive layer alongside

The US dollar is at the highs of the day across the board after a pair of important comments from Powell. 1) In the first, he said that GDI revisions last week removed a downside risk for GDP. The fear was that GDP would be revised down to GDI, instead it was GDI revised up

Text is here: Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on September 19 and 20, 2024 In brief, the main piiuntts from what was a bit of a dud meeting: Japan’s economy has been recovering moderately, with steady price rises.Economic activity and prices are generally on track, with moderate growth expected.Concerns exist regarding the

BNZ summarise their reasoing: QSBO just awful CPI headed sub 2.0% Soft labour market to subdue non-tradables Rate settings need to move quickly towards neutral 50 basis point cut at October meeting warranted “In our opinion, we think the disinflationary information that we have received will dominate and that this will, ultimately, encourage the RBNZ

Our monetary policy stance is becoming less restrictivePolicy direction is clear as rate cuts have already begunPace and scale of rate cuts will be decided meeting by meetingSees inflation stabilising at 2% target during 2025 It’s the first chance for the ECB to confirm market expectations of a rate cut later this month but they’re

Final Manufacturing PMI 40.6 vs. 40.3 expected and 42.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 40.6 (Aug: 42.4). 12-month low. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 41.3 (Aug: 42.8). 11-month low. Expectations turn negative as confidence deteriorates sharply. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at

As the Fed looks to cut interest rates further, the general thinking is that it should weigh on the US dollar. But with traders pricing in ~163 bps of rate cuts by June next year, is there really much more to squeeze out of this trade? If the Fed goes by 25 bps every meeting

Crude oil settled today just one cent lower at $68.17. The low price today reached $67.60. The high price reached $69.18. At session lows, the price stayed above a swing area going back to 2023 between $66.76 and $67.51. On both Thursday and Friday of last week, the price stalled within that area and bounced

Retail sales in Australia bouncing in August, well above estimates: Building approvals headline fell further than forecast. The retail sales number is the focus, indicating resilient household spending. This will be an argument against RBA rate cuts any time soon. — This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Slowing inflation means more reasons to justify October rate cut in my viewRecent weakening in growth outlook also tips the scale in the direction of OctoberBut should closely monitor data and perform comprehensive analysis before deciding This is the first sign that any ECB policymaker is explicitly making a call for October. It shows how

Israeli military says it has begun limited, localized and targeted raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon Israeli military says these targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern IsraelSays Israeli air force and IDF artillery are supporting the ground

The US market didn’t like what it heard from Powell but that was overwhelmed by late-quarter buying. S&P 500 +0.4%Nasdaq Comp +0.4%DJIA flatRussell 2000 +0.2%Toronto TSX Comp +0.2% See quarterly performance here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Here is the breakdown of the key positions: Yoshimasa Hayashi remains as chief Cabinet secretaryKatsunobu Kato to undertake finance minister postTakeshi Iwaya to undertake foreign minister postYoji Muto to undertake trade and industry minister postGen Nakatani to undertake defence minister post This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Treasury says that while the June quarter GDP fell, more recent evidence suggests we are at or near the bottom of the economic cycle: June quarter GDP fell by 0.2%, less than expected, with population growth masking economic weakness. But,, its not a lock … Treasury go on to say that while interest rates began

Bank of Japan September quarter 2024 Tankan report, main findings: September big manufacturers index +13 (expected 13)December big manufacturers index seen at +14 (expected 12)September big non-manufacturers index +34 (expected 32)December big non-manufacturers index seen at +28 (expected 30)September small manufacturers index 0 (expected -2)December small manufacturers index seen at 0 (expected -3)September small non-manufacturers

The yen is down on the day as traders are fading the jump following Shigeru Ishiba’s win in the LDP leadership race last week. USD/JPY is up another 0.5% to 144.34, looking to potentially challenge the 145.00 mark on the daily chart again. The dollar rebound yesterday also helped, backed by Fed chair Powell’s remarks.

Japan data: The u/e rate in Japan remains low. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I suspect BNZ is spot on with this: BNZ forecast a 50bp interest rate cut from Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week NZD/USD has dropped to its low of the session so far, around 0.6335 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, the news from Powell on Monday was pushing back against super-sized rate cuts: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 Sep:Fed Powell indicates there should be 2 cuts in 2024 Skimming through the piece on Powell’s speech from the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos, often called ‘Nickileaks’ due to his conveying of messages from the

New Zealand data much improved. Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). Link to more here. In summary: Business confidence comes in at -1% in Q3 prior -44% Net 5% expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming months prior was 40% expecting deterioration Firms’

The pair tried to seek a firm break above 1.1200 three times in September but failed, similar to the previous and first attempt this year back in August. The figure level remains a stubborn point where sellers are leaning on in keeping price action lower for now. The mood music yesterday was not helped by

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence is not generally an AUD mover. It dribbled a little lower in the week, ANZ citing the RBA on hold decision. Inflation expectations eased 0.3ppt to 4.6%, their lowest since September 2021. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It is desirable for currencies to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentalsNo comment on current FX movesHopes that FX will reflect changing phase of Japan economy as it moves out of deflationWill respond appropriately if needed The headline remark is particularly interesting, as it matches up with what BOJ governor Ueda said last week here.

Expectations are for improved retail sales data from Australia today: Commnets from CBA’s preview: Retail sales flatlined in July, the first official read on consumer spending since the Stage 3 tax cuts. We anticipate there was a small rise in August, in part owing to the early timing of Father’s Day (1 September) that saw

Judo Bank / S&P Global for September 2024 46.7 prior 48.7flash was 46.7 In summary from the report: Manufacturing sector weakened to cyclical lows through September.Demand is soft, with elevated business cost pressures.Manufacturing PMI index at lowest since 2016, excluding the pandemic start.Output and new orders are significantly below the neutral level of 50.Sector has

Manufacturing PMI from Japan for September 2024, the final from S&P Global / Jibun Bank. Another contraction result. Preliminary is here: Japan Jibun preliminary Sep PMIs: Manufacturing 49.6 (prior 49.8) Services 53.9 (53.7) The key points in the report: Output levels fall for second time in three months Slowest rise in employment levels in current

An interesting snippet from Reuters ICYMI: TikTok’s Chinese parent ByteDance plans to develop an AI model trained primarily with chips from compatriot Huawei Technologies ByteDance has diversified to domestic suppliers of chips used in artificial intelligence and accelerated development of its own since the U.S. in 2022 started restricting exports of advanced AI chips such

British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Shop Price Index in September -0.6% y/y expected -0.3%, prior -0.3%shop prices fall by the most since August 2021seventh time in nine months that the pace of price growth has weakened The report adds that services inflation, a closely watched indicator of underlying inflation pressure by the Bank of England,

No sooner did I post this: Late “ray of hope” in US port strike – deadline looms though Than news crosses that the Union says ‘Nope’. Says the wage offer was not acceptable. * The strike begins at 12.01 am if no agreement is reached. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US equity close: A surge in buying lateMarkets stop panicking when central bank start panickingHow major market indexes performed in the third quarterWTI crude oil futures settled $68.17USD moving higher as Powell taps the brakes on cutsPowell Q&A: A downside risk in GDP was a revision to GDI, but GDI was revised higherPowell: Policy will

Notes that a downside risk in GDP was a revision to GDIInstead, GDI was revised higherFed not in a hurry to cut rates quickly, will be guided by dataRate cut process will play out ‘over some time’ with no need to go fastFed will take everything into account at Nov meetingIf economy evolves as expected,

The title of the speech is “Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal”. These are his first comments since the Sept 18 FOMC press conference. The title suggests he’s going to wade into the outlook. The market is pricing a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in October and 43% of

The Bank of Japan polls firms as part of its quarterly Tankan survey. The Price Expectations survey shows: Japan firms expect CPI to rise 2.4% a year from now, the same rate as the survey 3 months ago. expect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.3% three years from now and an annual 2.2% five

Bank of America say that with EUR/USD on approach to their year-end target of 1.12 the pair has limited upside: market expectations for Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest-rate cuts are fully priced now for 2024 ( I’ll just pop in that after Powell spoke on Monday those expectations looked to have been overpriced

abrdn is an Asset Management firm. Funny spelling, short for ‘a burden’ I think, but could be wrong. We see prime minister Ishiba’s appointment as a positive. Endorsement of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy normalisation is a key benefit for markets, in addition to a pro competition and reduced fiscal stance. “Together, this should

The quarter is winding down and here is how various markets have done: S&P 500 +4.9%Nasdaq +1.9%Russell 2000 +8.3%TSX Comp +9.3%FTSE 100 +0.9%CAC 40 +6.0%Nikkei +8.5%Shanghai Comp +12.5% Those are some nice numbers and it marks four straight quarters of gains for the S&P 500. The US dollar index was down 4.7% in the quarter.

First off, there are market closures in Asia today for holidays. Mainland China is closed Hong Kong is closedSouth Korea is closed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene is up soon. Greene spoke last week: BOE’s Greene: Appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing policy restrictiveness The data agenda that follows is

The Fed Chair has tapped the brakes after saying if things go as planned, there will be 2 more cuts in 2024. The expectations for a 50 bp cut is down to 36%. At one point last week, the expectation was around 60%. USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved up to test, and move above, the

Both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD have made new highs for the year today. For the AUSUSD it has traded to a new high of 0.6941. That is the highest level since February 2023. The price of the pair is also running away from the June and July highs from the same year between 0.69947

The softer French and Spanish inflation numbers from last week have only served to rebuff market expectations for an ECB rate cut in October. And if things play out accordingly today, the German inflation numbers will reaffirm those odds. The estimate is for headline annual inflation to ease further to 1.7%, down from 1.9% in

The EURUSD up and down volatility continues. After trading near the 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) in the Asian/Pacific session, the price moved sharply higher. In the process the pair moved above the swing level from Friday’s trade just above the 1.1200 level, but fell short of a high price from

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee (2025 voting member and dove) speaking on FOXBusiness news says He is worried about the possible continued port shutdownThe Fed is cutting rates because the economy has normalizeThe jobs market is sustainableInterest rates coming down is the order the day.Cautionary indicators on the job marketThe most important thing about rate cuts

There are reports of long lines as Chinese brokerages as stock market fever quickly grabs China. The moves have been epic, including another 8% rally in the Shanghai Composite today. The early verdict from the stock market reaction seems to say that the government has found the right combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus. With

Goldman Sachs is out with a note today highlighting downside inflation pressures from oil. I’ve been writing about this for awhile, noting that oil is trading more than $20 below where it was at this time last year, adding a powerful drag for crude. Looking out further, Goldman Sachs sees continued low prints and heading

Bostic Is open to another 50 basis point cut of labor market shows continued weakness.Baseline cases for an orderly easing with inflation and expected to continue slowing and job market to hold up.He does not want to get overconfident on inflation given core personal consumption expenditures price index remains at 2.7%.He will be watching incoming

The USDCAD moved up on Friday and stalled at the falling 200-hour MA. Today, the price did move above that falling MA (it was lower today), but stalled near the high from Friday, and below the 50% midpoint of the September trading range (at 1.35328). Those are the topside targets to get to and through

As promised last week, China has lowered the downpayment ratio for first-time home buyers to 15% while the ratio for second homes has been lowered to 20%. This isn’t a new announcement, it’s the confirmation of government reports from last week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As it’s usually the case, the week starts with very few notable events. The main highlight in the European session will be the German inflation figures although given that the market has already priced in a rate cut in October, the data shouldn’t have too much of an impact. In the American session, we have

Prior -0.4% Looking at the details, the main drag was from energy prices which were down 4.8% compared to July. If you strip that out, import prices were only down by 0.2% on the month with the main drag being from prices for intermediate goods (-0.6%). Comparing to a year ago though, import prices were

Japan August Retail Sales surprise to the topside. Industrial output balanced it out by surprising to the downside. – Earlier re Japan: Talk of a Japanese election October 27 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 101.6; revised to 105.0 It’s a modest bump higher after the revision to the August reading. It indicates some optimism to the Swiss economic outlook but nothing too major when you look at the trend as a whole. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 75 bps (53% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 193 bps ECB: 50 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 175 bps BoE: 38 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 155 bps BoC: 75 bps (51%

Headlines: EUR/USD runs up to test the 1.1200 mark againChinese stocks stay hot ahead of the holiday breakWeekly update on interest rate expectationsSNB data shows Swiss central bank was hardly active in FX markets in Q2SNB total sight deposits w.e. 27 September CHF 472.2 bn vs CHF 465.3 bn priorGermany August import price index -0.4%

Kickstart the FX trading day with a technical look at the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD has been trading up and down over the last few trading days. What is somewhat unique to today’s price action, is that the price is trying to stay above its 100 hour moving

Prior was -9.7Output (production) -3.2 vs +1.6 priorNew orders -5.2 vs -4.2 priorEmployment +2.9 vs -0.7 priorOutlook -6.4 vs -9.6 priorPrices paid for raw materials +18.2 vs +28.2 priorPrices received +8.4 vs +8.5 priorWages +18.5 vs +22.0 prior This is a neutral reading overall. There are some positive indications on the outlook and inflation but

The Japanese political situation has been high drama in the past week. On Friday, Japan’s LDP opted not to pick a dovish leader of their party, causing a big drop in USD/JPY. That was followed by a snap-election call from incoming PM Ishiba. The vote will take place on October 27 as he tries to

Prior +0.7%GDP +0.7% vs +0.9% y/y prelimPrior +0.3% It’s a slight revision lower with the quarterly breakdown as per the following compared to the preliminary estimate: Household consumption +0.11% (previously +0.12%)Government consumption +0.23% (previously +0.30%)Gross fixed capital formation +0.10% (previously +0.08%)Gross capital formation: other +2.25% (previously +2.30%)Net trade -2.20% (unchanged) This article was written by

Fed’s Bowman and Powell will both speak on Monday. Let the 25 vs. 50 battle (re) commence!US politics – US Vice President Harris raises $55 million in California fundraisersChinese stocks continue to surgeBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene speaks on Monday, late NY timeJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says no comment on daily

Prior +1.1%HICP +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expectedPrior +1.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. This matches up with the softer headline figures from France and Spain last week. Then again, Italian headline inflation has been on the lower side for a while now. Nonetheless, it still reaffirms the latest calls for the ECB

Gold is a laggard today, falling $27 to $2630. It’s only a 1% drop and comes after a massive rally but it’s worth considering gold right now in light of what’s happening in China. I’ve made this point a couple times in the past week or so: China has been the big buyer of gold

Oil has been ratcheting up today but it’s not clear if that’s China or war worries, though it’s certainly not hurting crude. Just now Hezbollah also claimed an attack on Israel using a ballistic missile for the first time. It’s a ‘nour missile’. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

CNN reports that Israel could imminently launch a ground incursion into Lebanon. However the report says that following discussions with the US, the incursion could be more-limited than what Israel initially planned. I would take this all with a grain of salt as many of these headlines have proven false in the past and very

Will increase loan placement for ‘white list’ projects, met reasonable financing needs of real estate projects This isn’t much but it’s another note highlighting that China is trying to turn on the growth taps. It’s another excuse to look at the insane chart of the Shanghai Composite, which rose another 8% today. This article was

The USDCHF moved down on Friday and once again moved closer to the low of the up and down swing area that has confined most of the trading going back to around August 20. The low for that swing area comes in near 0.8400, and on Friday and again today, that area was tested and

Note, New Zealand switched to daylight saving time over the weekend as summer approaches. Speaking of New Zealand, there is the ANZ New Zealand Business Survey for September 2024 due today. The August data improved from July but was still awful: New Zealand business confidence in August -47.8% vs. prior -56.7% But, the focus will

As the NA session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the new trading week. Last week, was filled with China stimulus announcements from both a fiscal and monetary policy. The stock market soared in response with the Shanghai composite index rising 12.81%. The

This just confirms the date as previously reported from quite a number of media outlets earlier in Asia trading. Ishiba will be sworn in as prime minister tomorrow and is expected to revamp the Cabinet positions ahead of the snap election. Yoshimasa Hayashi is expected to stay on as chief Cabinet secretary while Katsunobu Kato

The data shows that they have clearly moved away from having to sell foreign currencies in 2023 to manage imported inflation. Now that they’re over the hill, it’s time to focus on the other side. They recently changed their thoughts on the franc back in August, saying that it is becoming a “problem” – especially

🔥 Chinese stocks are sizzling and it has been a while since we’ve seen such an upturn in sentiment in the region. After the over 15% gains last week, the CSI 300 index is up over 6% now at the lunch break. As seen with the chart above, the run higher already broke the downtrend

ChiNext is up 11% Beijing 50 i sup 14% Shanghai Composite +4% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1% A blistering day of rallies in China. Stimulus efforts were rolled about last week, and continued over the weekend: More stimulus from China over the weekend – banks instructed to cut mortgage rates Earlier today we had disappointing

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% This comes with US futures showing a more muted tone today, keeping flattish at the moment. It’s been another good month for European indices, having clawed their way back after the early August blip. But with month-end and quarter-end in focus

Wake me up when September.. oh, it’s already ending. The month has certainly flew by. So far today, the dollar is keeping steadier for the most part. The yen remains volatile with USD/JPY up earlier in Asia to 142.95 but is now near unchanged levels on the day. Instead, it is the antipodeans which are

Info comes via a (gated) Bloomberg report. It reports that the Shanghai Stock Exchange conducted weekend stress tests, requesting brokerages take part in these tests after its systems faced difficulties handling a surge in trading activity on Friday. Weekend simulations included processing 270 million transactions according to a statement from the exchange. This is twice

The major US stock indices are trading mixed to start the weekend and the third quarter. The snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average -194.71 points or -0.46% at 14 118129S&P index -4.54 points or -0.08% at 5733.63NASDAQ index +27.93 points or 0.15% at 18147.52 The small-cap Russell

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data September PMIs Manufacturing 49.8 expected 49.5, prior 49.1 Non manufacturing 50.0 expected 50.4, prior 50.3 The focus on this data point today is low, its all about stimulus from China now. Its been ramped up and announcements continued over the weekend: More stimulus from China over the weekend

Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic landscape, with notable shifts across key sectors. Despite some pressures, distinct trends are emerging that could shape investment strategies. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: This sector presents a mixed bag. Apple (AAPL) stands out with a gain of 1.44%, buoying investor confidence in consumer electronics. However, semiconductor stocks like

Any attempt to enlarge and strength banks is welcome, bearing in mind liabilitiesCross border mergers have a lot of benefits but aren’t without risksIt’s up to undertakers of mergers to decide if they are worth it Nothing big here and the euro is flat on the day. More: We are not going to wait until

Info comes via a Bloomberg report: Kamala Harris raised about $55 million in high-dollar events in California this weekendfundraiser on Sunday took in about $28 millionSaturday’s about $27 millionHarris began September with $404 million in the bank, compared to $295 million for TrumpHarris campaign spent an average of $7.5 million a day in August, compared

Latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner, we will take that into account at meeting in OctoberEmployment growth slowed to just 0.2% in the second quarter and recent indicators point to a further deceleration in the coming quartersThe labor market remains resilientWe expect the recovery to strengthen

A note from Rabobank argues that Sterling might continue to outperform the euro in coming months Cites due to the Bank of England’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates. Rabo adds that October could prove a rocky month for both currencies U.K. budget on October 30 could present a hurdle for sterling as the prospect

Credit growth steady on the month both m/m and y/y. Business credit expanding nicely. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China PMIs from the private survey Manufacturing Services Composite more to come Earlier: China official PMI data: Manufacturing 49.8 (expected 49.5) — — China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin

Americans are cleaning up from Hurricane Helene and it looks like it will be a long rebuilding effort in some parts of the country. The respite might be short for hurricane watchers as a late-starting hurricane season looks like it stay busy. There are a couple of harmless storms turning north in the mid-atlantic but

Prior +1.9%HICP +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +2.0% The softer headline figure was more or less expected after the state readings earlier here. Core annual inflation is expected to come in at 2.7% though, just marginally lower than the 2.8% reading in August. So, there is still more work to be done there to convince

Fundamental Overview Last week, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates cuts. Copper rallied strongly as China makes up for more than 50% of copper demand. Things are starting to look better for the market as we have also the Fed cutting rates into a resilient economy.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. But just be wary that trading sentiment could be impacted by month-end and quarter-end flows later, especially when we get closer towards the London fix. That might make for a bit of a trickier time in reading into price action on a day

The data is here from earlier: Japan data – August Industrial production -3.3% m/m (expected -0.9%)Japan August Retail Sales 2.8% y/y (expected 2.3%) A Japanese government says output will get better aehaed: Fall in motor vehicle production contributed to the decline in AugustChip-making equipment output also decreased due to weaker overseas demandChip-making machinery exports to

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Domestic sight deposits CHF 463.6 bn vs CHF 457.2 bn prior Swiss sight deposits jumped in the past week, with the total levels rising back up to its highest since early May. That might be indicative of the SNB stepping in a little to intervene with the franc’s strength in the past week. This article

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.1165USD/JPY 142.16GBP/USD 1.3372USD/CHF 0.8415USD/CAD 1.3515AUD/USD 0.6908NZD/USD 0.6339 This article was written

Fundamental Overview In the latter part of last week, crude oil sold off without a clear catalyst. Some people have been citing the FT piece about Saudi Arabia being ready to abandon the $100 target but as Amena Bakr, senior research analyst at Energy Intelligence said, there was never a target and such a high

The euro is sitting higher on the day, with EUR/USD seen up 0.3% to clip the 1.1200 mark. Even EUR/CHF is also driven higher, up 0.6%T to 0.9445 currently. But circling back to EUR/USD, the pair is once again testing key daily resistance at the figure level as buyers are hoping for a breakthrough this

2010 GMT / 1610 US Eastern time Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks as part of a panel discussiontopic is perspectives on global monetary policyvenue is the NABE economics conference in Nashville Greene spoke last week: BOE’s Greene: Appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing policy restrictiveness Bank of England

Japanese industrial output for August 2024 – — Earlier re Japan: Talk of a Japanese election October 27 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 61.99k; revised to 62.50kNet consumer credit £1.3 billion vs £1.4 billion expectedPrior £1.2 billion Mortgage approvals rose in August, moving up to its highest level since August 2022 – largely driven by a surge in purchase activity. On net, individuals borrowed £2.9 billion of mortgage debt in August, compared to £2.8 billion in July.

The yen rocketed higher on Friday on political news: Japanese yen sureges as Ishiba wins PM contest When I say rocketed, I am not exagerrating. USD/JPY was above 146.00 and ended Frdiay down near 142.00. We’ve had a bit of a rebound/retracement in early Monday trade. News and data: Japan data – August Industrial production

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a sustained rally ever since the last Fed’s decision as real yields fell further due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. More recently, real yields pulled back a bit, while gold continued to print new highs. The new driver could be China as last week they started

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Monday, the U.K. will release its final GDP q/q data, while Switzerland will publish the KOF economic barometer. In the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion titled “A View from the Federal Reserve Board” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Nashville. Although audience questions are expected,

Brandenburg CPI +1.4% vs +1.7% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.5% vs +1.7% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y prior The state figures point to softer yearly figures compared to the month before. Based on the estimates, we should see the German national number come in later

ANZ Business Outlook survey September 2024 Business Confidence 60.9% prior 50.6% Activity 45.3% prior 37.1% ANZ comment: first signs of improvement in current activityA sharper rebound in economic activity than generally anticipated would of course be great news – as long as inflation still returns sustainably to target. The proportion of firms intending to raise

Prior -0.2% In annual terms, house prices grew by 3.2% year-on-year and that’s the fastest growth in two years. The average price of a typical dwelling in the UK is at £266,094 as of the month. Nationwide notes that: “Income growth has continued to outstrip house price growth in recent months while borrowing costs have

1250 GMT / 0850 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman discusses the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference Bowman dissented at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. In favour of a 25bp rate cut vs. the 50bp that was passed. Bowman spoke last

Rachel Reeves is the UK government’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. She’ll be attending a meeting of European Union finance ministers according to the Financial Times: Reeves is on record as pushing for an ambitious deal to reduce trade barriers with the EU. FT is gated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan election October 27 rumoured, NHK. Japan’s NKH, Japan Broadcasting Corporation (also known as NHK) is a Japanese public broadcaster. Reporting the new Prime Minister is planning a general election for October 27. Shigeru Ishiba was elected ruling party (LDP) leader and soon-to-be prime minister on Friday. Rep[orts are he has decided to hold a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

German DAX futures -0.3%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures also showing a more muted tone. S&P 500 futures are down marginally by just 0.1% on the day. Just be mindful that we could be dealing with month-end and quarter-end shenanigans later. And that could factor into the flows

Reuters carried the report over the weekend: Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday it was on alert after missiles firing deep in inland Chinadetected “multiple waves of firing” by China’s Rocket Force and army in the provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, which all lie at least 2,000 km (1,200 miles)

The 2024 class of university graduates in China is the largest ever, at 11.8mn. They are entering a labour market showing record youth unemployment. Media reports, in summary, outline the cornering situation facing the oldies clinging on to power in the Politburo. Youth unemployment (16-24) hit 18.8% in August, near all-time highLess than 30% of

Hayashi: No comment on daily share movesContinue to monitor economic and financial situation in Japan and overseas with sense of urgencyContinue to work closely with BOJ Chinese shares are having another strong day as stimulus measures are assessed and new ones get rolled out, the lates being over the weekend – lower mortgage rates and

Mark Zandi is Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He’s posted over the weekend a glowing review of the US economy. I reckon there is a big warning in this … but first, he is what he said (in brief): with last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best

In May the Australian Treasury forecast a budget suplus of A$9.8bn. The final outcome though is way above, at A$15.8bn, which is more than A$6bn better than forecast. Revenue dropped but spending was slashed. It’s the first consecutive year surplus in nearly 20 years. Strong commodity prices were a solid contributing factor. At the margin,

Kristofferson wrote many hits in the 1970s. RIP. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand moved clocks forward an hour to switch to daylight saving time as summer approaches. If you are trading markets in NZ, a heads up. As an early alert, parts of Australia will switch to daylight saving time on the coming weekend, October 6. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Sunday the People’s Bank of China announced it’d be instructing banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before October 31. The PBOC said banks should reduce interest rates on existing mortgages to no less than 30 basis points (bps) below the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) The 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was

Mon: Chinese NBS & Composite PMIs (Sep), Caixin PMIs (Sep), Japanese Retail Sales (Aug), German Retail Sales (Jun), UK GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Sep), German Flash CPI (Sep), UK Mortgage Approvals/Lending (Aug), US Dallas Fed Index (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3) ; Canada Holiday.Tue: Riksbank Minutes, EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), EZ Flash CPI (Sep),

An exit poll following Sunday’s vote by broadcaster ORF showed Austria’s Freedom Party leading with 29.1% compared to 26.2% for Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party and 20.4% for the centre-left Social Democrats. Herbert Kickl, head of the Freedom Party may struggle to put together a governing coalition. Ahead of the vote, the Freedom Party

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Chinese PMIs, German CPI, Fed Chair Powell. (Canada on Holiday)Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, BoJ Summary of Opinions, Australia Retail Sales, Swiss Retail Sales, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings. (China on Holiday)Wednesday: Japan Tankan Index, Eurozone

There will be previews of the week ahead soon to come but the big two events next week are: Federal Reserve Chair Powell discussing the US economic outlook at a National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday. This is at 1300 US Eastern time on Monday, September 30 (1700 GMT).On Friday, October 4, at

BofA recommends selling short gold against silver at a ratio of 83.50, with a target of 78.50/75.00 and a stop at 87.50. Key Points: Gold: The 2024 price targets of 2368, 2538, and 2643 have already been achieved, with the next target at approximately 2733. However, BofA advises against chasing gold at this time due

US August core PCE +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedCanada GDP for July 0.2% versus 0.1% expectedUS Advanced goods trade balance for August $-94.26 billion vs. -100.60B estimateUS September UMich final consumer sentiment 70.1 vs 69.3 expectedUS wholesale inventories advanced for August 0.2% versus 0.3%Baker Hughes US oil rig count 484 vs 488 priorMusalem: Fed should cut

Closing changes in North American equities: S&P 500 -0.1%Nasdaq Comp -0.4%DJIA +0.3%Russell 2000 +0.7%Toronto TSX Comp -0.3% On the week: S&P 500 +0.6%Nasdaq Comp +1.0%DJIA +0.6% US stocks had a strong start and liked the PCE report but the bombing in Beirut along with quarter-end flows added some caution. Nvidia was also weak on a

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council at his home compound, in response to Israel’s strike in Beirut that targeted the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. The latest reports suggest Nasrallah was killed but there have been many conflicting reports for hours. The market seemingly isn’t

The FT interviewed St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and he said that future cuts should come gradually but that if there’s further weakness, a faster pace could be appropriate. That’s hardly a departure from Powell. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters reports: The US government is “studying very closely” the possibility of additional sanctions on individuals as well as the potential revocation of licenses for oil companies working in Venezuela, a senior official said on Friday. This isn’t a big surprise but it could reverse some of the recent progress in bringing back oil supply

This is all so far from Bowman. I’ll monitor for anything that could be potentially market moving. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg is out with a report saying China is ramping up pressure on domestic companies to use domestic chip products rather than Nvidia chips. Shares of Nvidia are down 3.5% and at a session low and weighing on the broader market. The Nasdaq is now down 0.6%. The thing is, this exact same story was

The GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed is rising after today’s round of data. It’s up to 3.1% from 2.9%. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decline in the nowcast of real personal consumption expenditures growth was more than offset

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a diverse landscape of sector performances. Notably, the healthcare sector is struggling, with Eli Lilly (LLY) leading the drop at -2.29%. Meanwhile, technology and industrials show promising resilience, counterbalancing the broader market’s mixed signals. Semiconductors: Both Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) faced losses, down 0.77% and 0.81% respectively,

Prior month 0.0%Real GDP increased by 0.2% in July, following no change in June.Services-producing industries grew 0.2%, led by retail trade, public sector, and finance and insurance.Goods-producing industries edged up 0.1%, with utilities and manufacturing driving growth.13 of 20 sectors expanded in July, despite negative impacts from wildfires on transportation, warehousing, and accommodation services. For

Oil rigs 484 vs 488 priorNatural gas rigs 99 vs 96 prior A bit of life in natural gas and they fire up the rigs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 2kUnemployment rate 6.0% vs 6.0% expectedPrior 6.0% German unemployment rose by a little more than expected in September, with the total figure seen at 2.82 million after adjusting for seasonal patterns. The jobless rate remained stable at 6.0% at least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Jamie McGeever at Reuters is out with a good column on the conundrum for China as it looks to stimulate the economy. He highlights that the moves could spark a rally in the yuan and that USD/CNY could also fall as the US stimulates. He cites Stephen Jen — who is a great FX analyst

The top three candidates are former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, ex-environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and economic security minister Sanae Takaichi. They are expected to come out ahead but there might not be a clear winner with a majority. As such, a run-off is a distinct possibility. If so, the results will be delayed further due

When Takaichi won the first round of votes, it led USD/JPY to leg up higher to above 146.00. But in the head-to-head vote against Ishiba, she lost out and that’s resulting in a massive turnaround in USD/JPY now. The pair has tumbled from around 146.20 to 143.80 levels currently. Takaichi was the most vocal among

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +1.3%Francis CAC +0.8%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.9% Closing changes on the week: Stoxx 600 +2.7%German DAX +4.0%Francis CAC +4.0%UK’s FTSE 100 +1.1%Spain’s IBEX +2.0%Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.9% What’s not to like about this chart? European stocks have a lot of leverage to

Prelim was 69.0Prior was 67.9Current conditions 63.3 vs 62.9 prelim (61.3 prior)Expectations 74.4 vs 73.0 prelim (72.1 prior)1-year inflation 2.7% vs 2.7% prelim5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% prelim The final revisions are rarely a market mover but the chart illustrates how this is a different picture than consumer confidence, which is nearing a breakdown. A

Latitude Media today talked to Peter Freed, Meta’s former director of energy strategy (he left in April) and he talked about the massive amount of energy that’s going to be needed for data centers. That’s on top of green transition energy and chronic under-investment in the grid. “Most of the data center announcements that have

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.3% European indices can take comfort from the softer inflation readings from France and Spain. But the overall market mood is more tentative, with US futures sitting 0.1% lower currently. In FX, the dollar is keeping just a little higher across the

They had previously penciled in a 25 bps rate cut for December instead. So, they’re changing to October now. BNP and HSBC are the other two names on the list but I’d expect the rest of the houses to change up their calls in the next week or so as well. From earlier: BNP Paribas

The Australian dollar is at the highest levels since February 2023 as part of a broad selloff in the US dollar following softer US inflation data and China cutting lending rates. The definitive break above 0.6900 in AUD/USD cracks the June 2023 high and a series of highs in that range. It’s accelerated higher since.

Reported heavy strikes in Beirut have put a risk-off mood into markets and the S&P 500 has hit a session low, falling into slightly negative territory. The market doesn’t like war but it has mostly ignored the latest Middle East drama. This strike was said to target top Hezbollah leadership though, so if there was

The JPY is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed to modestly lower mainly because of the -1.02 decline in the JPY. The other changes vs the major currencies are showing modest changes on the day with the USD higher vs the EUR, GBP, CAD,

Headlines: Japanese yen surges as Ishiba wins leadership race to become next Japan prime ministerShigeru Ishiba wins LDP leadership race run-off, will be Japan’s next prime ministerWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBNP Paribas revises call and sees the ECB cutting rates in October nowGoldman Sachs the latest to change their call on the ECB, now

The Primary Target of the latest Israeli Airstrike on Beirut is said to be Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The HQ is said to be located beneath residential buildings. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said: “Moments ago, the Israel Defense Forces carried out a precise strike on the central headquarters of the Hezbollah terror organization

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are trading it to new highs. For the AUDUSD, it is breaking to the highest level since February 2023.For the NZDU it is trading to the highest level of the year but his just short of the end of December high at 0.63684. For the USDCAD, it has traded mostly between

The USDCHF is moved lower on the back of the PCE data today and that move has now taken the price of the USDCHF to 0.8400 target. Remember, that area is a low of an up-and-down trading range that has confined the pair going back to August 20. The high of the area comes in

The PBOC continues to deliver on easing. The SLF cuts are to the overnight, seven-day and one-month facility to 2.35%, 2.50% and 2.85%, respectively. Between this and the PCE report, risk assets are jumping. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Aims to accelerate incumbent prime minister Kishida’s new capitalism pledgeWill consider appropriate timing for lower house electionRevitalising consumption is key for Japan to emerge from deflationary spiralMust scrutinise what will be the most effective step to cushion blow from rising inflationThere is a time lag for wage growth to exceed inflation He hasn’t been too

The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos gets a bit into the weeds today in a column that highlights how borrowers might be reluctant to tap lower rates. That could make it more difficult for the Fed to generate an uplift in economic activity or stall the rise in unemployment. For me, the most important part of the

The yen is higher today after Ishiba beat out a dovish rival to win the top job at the LDP. Says BOJ should decide monetary policyAccommodative monetary policy won’t changeWill not make any requests to the BOJ on monetary policy USD/JPY has ticked higher on these comments but only modestly This article was written by

United Overseas Bank (UOB) in Singapore are maintaining a ‘base case’ forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate by 25bp at its next meeting, on November 5. OUB say the cut is a “close call’ and “very much dependent on upcoming data releases” ahead of the meeting date: labour market

A US security official is saying that the US approach to finding a diplomatic solution to the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict no longer has a chance of success at least for now. Earlier Israel’s PM Netanyahu said that Israel is forced to defend itself on war front organized by Iran. He stated that “If you strike us,we

A snippet from UBS on Pacific Rim central banks: Fed’s easing cycle is just getting started, UBS see another 50 bp of cuts this year and 100 in 2025Bank of Japan to raise short term rates by 25 basis points by the middle of 2025see the most aggressive easing moves from the Reserve Bank of

The rates market is evenly-divided on whether the Bank of Canada will cut by 50 or 25 basis points on October 23. Today’s GDP report was slightly better than forecast at +0.2% versus +0.1% expected but the advance August reading was flat. That has RBC estimating Q3 GDP at 1.0% annualized, well below the Bank

The headline reading is the highest since May, so that’s a welcome rebound in retail sales balance. At the same time, expected retail sales for October also moved higher to 5 and that is up from -17 in September. It is the highest reading for the expectations balance since April 2023. That’s a positive signal

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US PCE data was better than expected but the market is having trouble rallying hard. Is it a movement out of the US into China. Europe and strong gains this week as well. Is it sell the news? Having said that, the S&P and Dow indices are trading at new all-time highs. They just

The US PCE data was lower than expectations and it helped to push the USD lower. For the EURUSD, the price has moved above a swing area between 1.1181 and 1.11897. The next targets are at 1.1200 and the high for the week at 1.12130. Getting above those levels will have traders targeting the 61.8%

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and guide monetary policy. You can

The main focus this week has been on China and the dollar fell yesterday as risk trades legged higher. The greenback is keeping steadier today but it really has been a bit of a push and pull week for the dollar. USD/JPY is extending higher though, climbing above 145.00 as we await the results of

Since July of this year, the oil market has struggled to regain momentum. It has even reached a point where the price of WTI crude oil fell below $68, a level we have not seen since March 2023. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and XAUUSD have all experienced a remarkable upward surge. It didn’t

Prior +2.3%HICP +1.7% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +2.4% This adds to the French data from earlier and reaffirms softer price pressures towards the end of Q3. Core inflation is also seen easing further to 2.4%, so that’s another positive development. And all of this just rebuffs expectations that the ECB might indeed cut rates by

Fundamental Overview The USD remains under pressure amid the aggressive market pricing for rate cuts and better global growth expectations following the recent huge Chinese easing measures. It’s now a battle between global growth supporting the risk sentiment and weighing on the greenback and the aggressive rates pricing which could be scaled back if the

Barclays is out with a note forecasting the ECB to cut by 25 basis points on October 17. They’re behind the curve on that one as the market shifted dramatically in the past two weeks and is now pricing in a 94% chance of a cut. That’s despite what prior ECB hints had been. Barclays

Prior month -102.6BInternational trade deficit in August: $94.3 billion (down $8.6 billion from July’s $102.8 billion)August exports of goods: $177.0 billion (up $4.1 billion from July)August imports of goods: $271.3 billion (down $4.5 billion from July) Less trade balance which is good. Looking at the mix of exports and imports, they are also mixed with

Prior month 0.3%Wholesale inventories for August 2024 were $905.7 billion, up 0.2% from July 2024 and up 0.7% from August 2023.The June to July 2024 wholesale inventories change was revised from 0.2% to 0.3%.Retail inventories for August 2024 were $816.0 billion, up 0.5% from July 2024 and up 6.3% from August 2023.The June to July

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3500 level. It isn’t one that ties to a technical level, so it isn’t too significant. But if anything else, it could just draw and keep a lid on price action until we get

Prior +1.8%HICP +1.5% vs +2.0% y/y expectedPrior +2.2% A marked fall in energy prices is said to be driving the lower inflation pressures in France in September. But in any case, market players will take in comfort from this as it just increases the odds of a rate cut by the ECB next month. EUR/USD

Tokyo area inflation data is due today: National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPIIt measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan areaIts considered a leading indicator

Prior m/m +0.2%Headline inflation PCE +2.2% y/y vs +2.3% expected (Prior +2.5%)Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% expected (prior was +0.2%)Unrounded +0.0907% m/m vs +0.155% prior Consumer spending and income for August: Personal income +0.2% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2%Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.5%Real personal spending +0.1% vs +0.4% prior Core

US initial jobless claims 218K versus 225K estimateUS Q2 final GDP +3.0% vs +3.0% expectedUS August durable goods orders 0.0% vs -2.6% expectedUS pending home sales for August 0.6% versus 1.0% expectedOPEC+ likely to go ahead with planned Dec oil output increase – reportKansas City Fed manufacturing index for September -18 versus +6 last monthUS

By cutting rates 50 basis points, the Fed has declared something of a victory over inflation but there is still some problematic inflation, particularly around insurance, healthcare and housing. With China stimulating this week, next year might not be as smooth sailing on prices as hoped. That said, the bond market is still seeing sub-2%

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% This comes as Chinese equities continue to stay more buoyed to end the week. The CSI 300 index is up another 3.6% today and poised to end the week with near 15% gains. Yowza. US futures are more muted today though, with S&P 500 futures keeping flat. Wall

Due on Friday, September 27, 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, the Core PCE data is the focus. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and

Fundamental Overview The USD remains under pressure amid the aggressive market pricing for rate cuts and better global growth expectations following the recent huge Chinese easing measures. It’s now a battle between global growth supporting the risk sentiment and weighing on the greenback and the aggressive rates pricing which could be scaled back if the

The US National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Warning for North central Charlotte County in southwestern Florida and Central DeSoto County in south central Florida. Along with multiple other warnings, including: Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles

Fundamental Overview The USD remains under pressure amid the aggressive market pricing for rate cuts and better global growth expectations following the recent huge Chinese easing measures. It’s now a battle between global growth supporting the risk sentiment and weighing on the greenback and the aggressive rates pricing which could be scaled back if the

The results of the run-off vote should be in the next hour and it’s still a close call now, with ex-environment minister Koizumi bowing out. The Nikkei is happy with the results so far at least, rallying further on the day. And that is weighing on the yen a little, with USD/JPY now inching back

The pair is now down 0.4% on the day to 1.1135 after the softer inflation numbers for France and Spain earlier. That is seeing traders step up ECB rate cut odds for October, with the futures market pricing in a ~91% probability for a 25 bps rate cut. Meanwhile, the OIS market is pricing in

Fundamental Overview The USDJPY pair this morning has been on a rollercoaster. Initially, we got a rally following the soft Tokyo CPI numbers and then Takaichi winning the first round of votes in the Japanese election. Things turned around quickly in the run-off as Ishiba won triggering a selloff in the pair. Takaichi was the

Australian Treasurer Chalmers is in China for meetings re economic relations with China. had frank and fruitful tasks with NDRC (China’s state planner)will have annual talks, strategic economic dialogueChina slowdown a crucial factor in weaker growh globally sees China stimulus as a “really welcome development” – This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No changes to the initial estimate as the Spanish economy remains one of the bright spots in the euro area so far this year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is of Category 4 intensity and is the third hurricane to slam Florida’s Big Bend region in under 13 months. Of note, three of the last five hurricanes to have struck the mainland in the US have also landed in this region. Going back to Helene, it is reportedly sustaining winds of around 130

Poor data again from China but it may well be shrugged off given the stimulus announcements so far this week and the expectation there may be more (fiscal) to follow. China January – August industrial profits +0.5% y/y prior +3.6% August industrial profits are down 17.8% y/y prior +4.1% This article was written by Eamonn

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 74 bps (51% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 190 bps ECB: 49 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 171 bps BoE: 37 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 152 bps BoC: 73 bps (52%

They are the next one to shift towards this call, following from HSBC before this. Both had previously expected the ECB to cut rates in December instead. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank was also out in saying that the ECB needs to step up their pace of rate cuts here. But their call came right before this

USD/JPY has popped well above its Thursday high, to a 3 week high around 145.50 and change. We had data earlier from Japan: Tokyo area September inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%)USD/JPY sitting around its recent high circa 145.05 after the Tokyo inflation data And rate cuts from China: PBOC cuts 7 day reverse

To remove curbs on non-local residents from purchasing homesTo scrap limits on number of homes that residents can buyBeijing to also consider limiting similar restrictions but in key districts The changes are expected to be announced in the “coming weeks”. This just piles on top of all of the measures announced this week and is

People’s Bank of China trims the required minimum capital banks much hold in reserve. The PBOC announced they’d be doping this earlier in the week. They’ce come through today. RRR cut by 50bp. — The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) is a central bank regulation that sets the minimum amount of reserves each bank must hold

I’ve been focused on China all week and thinking about how the stimulus will play out. So far so good with Chinese equities up a sparkling 10% as we head into the final trading day of the week. ZeroHedge has a great recap of the latest note from Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets

Economic confidence 96.2 vs 96.5 expectedPrior 96.6; revised to 96.5Industrial confidence -10.9 vs -9.9 expectedPrior -9.7; revised to -9.9Services confidence 6.7 vs 5.9 expectedPrior 6.3; revised to 6.4 Euro area economic confidence tilts a little lower towards the end of Q3, as we are starting to see softer signals surrounding the outlook. It has been

Earlier: PBOC cuts 7 day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (prior 1.7%)People’s Bank of China cuts RRR by 50bp *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi

0815 GMT / 0415 US Eastern time – European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane delivers opening remarks at a conference about Fiscal Policy, Financial Sector Policy and Economic Growth 0940 GMT / 0540 US Eastern time – Keynote speech by ECB board member Piero Cipollone at “Economics of Payments XIII” conference organised by the

Ishiba received 215 votes in the run-off while Takaichi only got 194 votes. That’s good news for yen bulls, as Takaichi was the one who had been vocal in scrutnising the BOJ for hiking rates too fast. So, Ishiba winning at least takes some of that pressure away. This article was written by Justin Low

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), which initiated the global trend of monetary easing in March, made its third rate cut on Thursday, lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%. Switzerland has largely sidestepped the inflation surge seen in much of the developed world, with consumer prices rising by just 1.1% in August,

Here is the breakdown of the results for the top candidates: Ishiba – 154 votesKoizumi – 136 votesTakaichi – 181 votes The needed majority was supposed to be 368 votes. This means that Ishiba and Takaichi will now face off in the run-off vote. The result should come in the next hour or so. This

The European session will see the release of low-tier indicators which shouldn’t matter much. In the American session, we get the Canadian GDP, the US PCE and final UMich Consumer Sentiment report. These releases shouldn’t change the markets expectations. The real action will be the next week with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI

US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – here are the critical ranges to watchBOJ hiking (slowly), RBA cutting (slowly), Fed, BoC, RBNZ all cuttingFederal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman is speaking again on FridayEuropean Central Bank speakers on Friday include Lane and CipolloneChina YTD industrial profits +0.5% y/y (prior +3.6%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook is speaking at 2200 GMT, which is 1800 GMT. gives lecture, “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force” before the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series Cook spoke earlier at the same event: Fed’s Cook: Optimistic AI can boost productivity Did not speak on

When markets open up on Monday, it will be October. Notably, Chinese markets will be open Monday as the Chinese Communist Party celebrates 75 years in power. From there, Chinese equity markets will be closed for the remainder of the week. That’s an important detail because China has been rolling out stimulus measures and leaks

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman voted for a 25bp rate cut last week, dissenting from the majority 50bp cut vote. 1715 GMT / 1315 US Eastern time – Bowman participates in a conversation before the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting. Bowman spoke on Thursday Fed’s Bowman repeats speech from earlier this week. No

Here’s something else to worry about. A speaker at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference 2024 in London said “Central banks are not ready to deal with an AI-driven crisis in the banking industry”. The comment is from Jon Danielsson, director of the Systemic Risk Centre and reader in finance at the London

The S&P index is closing at another record high. The index is up 23.11 points or 0.40% at 5745.37. The new intraday all-time high comes in at 5767.37. The Dow industrial average also rose 5 260.36 points or 0.62% at 42175.11, and the NASDAQ index gained 108.09 points or 0.60% at 18190.29. The small-cap Russell

The EURUSD started the day with volatile up-and-down price action. The price was trading above and below 100/200 hour MAs indicative of uncertainty from buyers and sellers. IN the morning video, I talked about this dynamic. I gave the small nod to the buyers on the back of higher lows, the price was above the

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for September 2024 comes in at 95.1, its highest level since January 2022 prior 92.2third straight month of improvementstill well below 100, and thus still net pessimistic ANZ comment: lift was driven by expectations about the future, rather than views of the here and nowinflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8% From

Headline CPI 2.2% y/y, in line with expectations but down from August expected 2.2%, prior 2.6% Core 2.0% y/y, and ditto, in line with expectations but down from August expected 2.0%, prior 2.4%this is ex food Core-core 1.6% y/y, in line with expectations and an unchanged rate from August expected 1.6%, prior 1.6%this is ex

Here is the data: Tokyo area September inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%) Headline and core were well behaved, but it’s the core-core 9excluding food and energy and the closest to US core inflation) that might be beading some sweat on brows at the Bank of Japan: Core-core 1.6% y/y, in line with expectations

The People’s Bank of China announced they’d be doing this earlier in the week. Reverse repo rate cut delivered now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier: PBOC cuts 7 day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (prior 1.7%)People’s Bank of China cuts RRR by 50bp Also, as you’ll note below, the 14-day reverse repo rate has been cut to 1.65%, from 1.85%. The cuts were promised earlier this week. I’m wary of a ‘sell the fact’ response today, *** The People’s

Deutsche Bank has revised its expectations for the European Central Bank rate cutting cycle … its going to be faster: DB see consecutive ECB 25bp rate cuts, beginning from the 12 December meetingDB don’t rule out a 50bp cut in December Terminal rate of 2 – 2.5% seen mid-2025 This compares to DB’s prior forecast

State TV in China reported that Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Civil Affairs will issue living subsidies to disadvantaged groups before the National Day holiday next week. local authorities should ensure the funds reach their target recipients before October 1 (Oct 1 is the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China)to

Goldman Sachs have ramped up their forecasts for GBP: their end of 2024 GBP/USD forecast is 1.34 (from 1.27)GS target 0.82 for EUR/GBP Analysts at the bank have a supportive list for sterling: Resilient risk:”Markets have priced out US recession risk, benefiting risky assets and pro-cyclical currencies like Sterling”Ongoing Fed easing and US growthRate cut

More from Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaking on policy and the economy this time: Wholeheartedly supported 50 bps rate cut.On path of policy, will look carefully at data, outlook, balance of risks.Normalization of economy, particularly of inflation, ‘quite welcome.’Labor market ‘solid’ but has cooled noticeably; may become more difficult for some to find employment.Sees significant

Hurricane Helene rapidly intensified into a potentially catastrophic 130 mph Category 4 storm. If it makes landfall at that intensity it’d be the first Cat 4+ hurricane since the mid 1800s. nearly 5 feet of storm surge being observed along the western Florida Peninsula tides rising over the next several hours could surge these levels

In this video, I take a look at the three major commodity currency pairs vs the USD: The AUDUSD, USDCAD and NZDUSD. The AUDUSD has been testing swing highs going back to June and July 2023 both yesterday and today. Yesterday the price moved above does highs between 0.68947 and 0.68997, but could not sustain

We’re sorting through some quarter-end flows at the moment so I’m suspicious of FX moves but the euro, pound and antipodeans in particularly are climbing on this move in the dollar. China didn’t offer a full picture on fiscal support today but said it would offer the “necessary spending” to meet this year’s 5% target.

Prior month -5.5% Pending home sales for August 0.6% versus 1.0% expectedIndex comes in at 70.6 versus 70.2 last monthMonth over month, contract signings rose in the Midwest, South and West but dropped in the Northeast.Compared to one year ago, pending home sales decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South but increased in the West.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a sustained rally ever since the last Fed’s decision as real yields fell further due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. More recently, real yields pulled back a bit, while gold continued to print new highs. The new driver could be China as this week they started

The US Treasury will auction $44B of 7-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the 6-month averages of the major components. One component is the Tail The tail is the difference between the WI level (when issued level) at the time of the auction and the actually

The report says that the doves at the ECB are preparing to fight for a rate cut next month after weighing up the softer economic data as of late. The sources say that the poor PMI data and a slowdown in wages are stirring up confidence among those who are in favour of lower rates.

Japan’s ruling party will vote for a new leader on Friday who will almost-surely be the country’s Prime Minister shortly afterwards. Current PM Fumio Kishida has stepped down and the new leader may take a more-active role in directing the Bank of Japan. There are nine candidates but three seen as leading candidates. Sanae TakaichiShinjiro

In the Kickstart video from earlier this morning, I highlighted the 1.3348 as the key barometer on the downside for the GBPUSD today. Move below it would be more bearish. Stay above it would be more bullish. This is the reference to that level: Looking at the current hourly chart below, the 100 hour MA

High yield 3.668% WI level at the time of the auction 3.675%Tail -0.7 basis points six-month average of 0.1 basis points. Last month the tail was 0.9 bpsBid to cover:, 2.63X versus six-month average of 2.54X. Last month it was 2.5XDirects (the % of domestic buyers) 20.26% versus six-month average of 16.8%Indirects (the % of

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Prior month +6KC Fed manufacturing index -18 versus +/monthComposite index is -8 versus -3 last month The manufacturing index is at its lowest level since July 2023. The index does move up and down a lot. Last month it went from -12 to +6. The +6 was the highest since August 2023 when it reached

The gains picked up during the handover from Asia to Europe, following comments from China’s Politburo here. That amplified Beijing’s commitment from all of the measures announced this week and also drove Chinese equities to surging gains on the day. S&P 500 futures were already up 0.3% at the time but extended that to 0.8%

In the post yesterday on the USDCAD, I spoke of support on the daily chart going all the way back to February 2024 and March 2024. Those lows came in at 1.3412 and 1.3419. Yesterday the low price reached 1.34189, and started to bounce. In that same post I talked about target levels at 1.3465

German DAX futures +0.8%UK FTSE futures +0.5% US futures were already a little higher earlier but overall risk sentiment is getting an added boost as China is coming out with force to amplify their measures to bolster the economy this week. The Politburo announcement here is triggering strong gains in domestic equities and is pushing

In the kickstart video for September 26, I take a look at 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, the price action today and over the last few trading days, has been up and down volatile. On most days, there are technical levels that the “market” pays attention to.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a sustained rally ever since the last FOMC decision with the market continuing to price in a back-to-back 50 bps cut in November. More recently, the PBoC surprised with strong easing measures as Chinese officials seem to have finally decided to go bigger. The market might now

Oil was roiled earlier today by an FT report saying Saudi Arabia was no longer targeting $100 oil. Now we’re getting more leaks with a Reuters sources report saying that the planned Dec output hike is still going ahead but will have a small impact given planned compensation cuts from some members. This article was

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.1%German DAX +1.6%France’s CAC +2.2%UK’s FTSE 100 flatSpain’s IBEX +1.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.5% Europe is a heavy exporter to China and some stimulus from Beijing is certainly welcome. The euro has been slow to respond but is also ticking higher now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

They are sticking with the view that the ECB will begin delivering back-to-back rate cuts, but starting from December. A further weakening in the economic outlook is the main cause for the shift in their call, after having previously forecasting the ECB to deliver on 25 bps rate cuts every quarter until a terminal rate

The vote will take place Friday afternoon, with results of the first round scheduled to be announced at 2:20 p.m. There will be a runoff if the top candidate fails to win a majority, with the results to be announced at 3:30 p.m. Tokyo time. MUFG highlights the potential for investors to offload some of

Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will cut rates in this week’s meeting, likely opting for a smaller cut (25bp) rather than a more substantial 50bp reduction. The decision follows softer-than-expected inflation data and aims to preserve room for future adjustments if necessary. Key Points: Inflation and Rate Cut Expectations: Recent inflation

The former Fed chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is speaking on CNBC and says: Banking system is well-capitalized.A good deal of thought is going into how to shore up liquidity, access to Fed’s discount window. US labor market, inflation suggests were on a path to a soft landing.There is a bit more slack

The Bank of Japan will be watching on as Japan braces for another round of price hikes in October. In addition to price increases, wages are set to rise. The minimum wage to increase by 51 yen to 1,055 yen (national average). Postal rates to jump ~30%, first increase in 30 years excluding tax hikes

David Tepper was on CNBC and made some very bullish comments on China. HE said he has gone over his usual limits. He said he bought more on the PBOC announcements this week and even more overnight today on the fiscal announcements. “This is incredible stuff for that country,” he said of the stimulus. “This

But sees no risk of deflationFurther rate cuts might be necessary to ensure price stabilityPrimary tool for the SNB will be interest rates but FX intervention could be used if necessary The language is not much changed to that in June really. Back then, they noted about how “further policy adjustments” might be necessary. Now,

Fed’s Lisa Cook is speaking and says: Optimistic AI can boost productivityAI has potential for negative employment impacts Does not address monetary policy or economic outlook at the AI focused event. However, if productivity can be increased, that can help to keep inflation low and growth high. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.1% expectedPrior ex-transport +0.1% (unrevised)Excluding defense, new orders rose -0.2% vs +10.3% priorNondefense capital goods orders (ex-aircraft) +0.2% vs +0.0% expectedPrior nondefense capital goods orders -0.2% (revised from -0.1%)Unfilled orders: +0.4% vs +0.2% priorInventories inched +0.1% vs +0.1% prior This is a decent report with a slight beat on core orders. Headline

Headlines: China’s Politburo reaffirms will lower RRR and implement forceful interest rate cutsAussie bounces back today on upbeat China sentimentIs this the real turning point for Chinese equities?SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.00% from 1.25% previouslySNB chairman Jordan: Swiss franc rise a major factor of inflation declineECB October policy decision reportedly

Tech stocks surge while energy sector slides: Navigating today’s market shifts The U.S. stock market today paints a vibrant picture of sectoral shifts, with technology stocks outperforming while energy stocks face significant declines. Investors have embraced rising tech giants, while concerns over the energy sector loom large. Navigating these dynamics is crucial for strategic portfolio

The NASDAQ index was up 245.13 points at its session highs this morning, and moved to down -10.47 points. It is currently trading up 32 points or 0.18% at 18115.90. Helping to contribute to the declines was a report from the Wall Street Journal that Super Microcomputers was under investigation for accounting irregularities: Super Micro

The joint economic forecasts for the autumn now shows that these institutes are expecting the German economy to shrink by 0.1% in 2024. Their previous forecast was for the German economy to grow by 0.3% this year. The projected drop now will follow from the 0.3% contraction in the economy seen last year. “In addition

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is speaking before the 2024 Treasury Market Conference on Thursday, September 26, 2024. scheduled for 1120 US Eastern time (this is 1520 GMT) The event is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Yellen was Federal Reserve Chair prior to current incumbent Powell. Her comments are often market

The US 10 year yield has risen to its highest level since September 4. The yield is currently at 3.817%. That’s up 3.6 basis points on the day. The low yield for September has reached 3.599% (call it 3.60%). Since then, the yield is up 21.7 basis points. The Fed cut rates on September 18

The speech is a repeat from Tuesday. Dissent to half-point cut warranted by inflation still above target, “measured pace of cuts more appropriate” Core inflation remains uncomfortably above 2% target with upside risks given ongoing growth in spending, wages Recalibrating policy appropriate given progress on inflation, but should not declare victory yet Upside risks to

The main event in the European session will be the SNB Rate Decision. In the American session we will get the final US Q2 GDP, the US Jobless Claims and the US Durable Goods Orders. 07:30 GMT – SNB Rate Decision The SNB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps and bring the policy

The major stock indices are trading higher in early US trading. China’s stimulus measures this week have helped to advance stocks. AliBaba the is trading up 7.44%PDD Holdings is trading up 10.80%JD.com is trading up 12.32%Baidu is up 9.37%iShare MSCI and ETF is trading up 8.09% A snapshot of the US indices is currently showing:

Prior -22.0; revised to -21.9 The reading is an improvement to the month before. However, in the grand scheme of things, German consumer sentiment remains depressed mostly. GfK notes that: “After the sever setback in the previous month, the slight improvement in consumer sentiment can be interpreted as stabilisation at a low level. The consumer

The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins. As traders in the US reach their desks at work or at home, they are met with sharply higher stock futures and modestly lower yields. Optimism surged after China’s politburo announced plans for “necessary fiscal spending” to achieve its

In terms of market pricing, it is literally a 50-50 call at the moment. The OIS market is pricing in an exact split between a 25 bps and 50 bps rate cut currently. So, that’s important to take note of even if the “expectation” is for a 25 bps rate cut. The SNB would prefer

These comments don’t touch on monetary policy. There are downside risks to discount windowYou do need to be signed up for it and you do need to testDon’t necessarily need to preposition collateral at discount windowFixing discount window by modernizing it is importantCould be unintended consequences by forcing banks to use discount window, or hold

The best business to own this year was old-fashioned power generation. It’s poetic how an industry that was seen as the epitome of quiet and predictable has just passed the AI-revolutionary defining company as the best performer in the S&P 500 this year. That’s what Vistra did as it’s now gained 252% year-to-date. Vistra is

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Powell and Williams, dissenter Bowman alsoMore on China considering a 1 trillion yuan injections of capital into banksBank of America say Sterling has more room to riseReports that China is considering injecting US$142bn of capital into top banksRBA says around 2% of owner occupiers in real danger of defaultingPBOC

Since mid-year, any NordFX broker client can take advantage of the automated withdrawal feature. This innovation, among many others, is aimed at further enhancing the quality of service and comfort for the company’s clients. Currently, 84% of withdrawal requests are processed automatically. The service is available 24/7 and is executed almost instantly after a request

Prior 1.25%Prepared to intervene in FX market as necessaryInflation pressures have again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarterThat reflects the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last few monthsStronger franc partly contributed to downward revision in inflation forecastsInflationary pressure abroad is likely to continue to ease gradually over the next quartersFurther rate cuts

Prior +2.3% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a sustained rally ever since the last FOMC decision with the market continuing to price in a back-to-back 50 bps cut in November. More recently, the PBoC surprised with strong easing measures as Chinese officials seem to have finally decided to go bigger. The market might now looking

The times below are listed in US Eastern time / GMT format: 0930/1330 Welcome address ECB President Christine Lagarde at the 8th annual ESRB conference “New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy” in Frankfurt0945/1345 Keynote speech by ECB board member Claudia Buch at the same conference 1015/1415 Participation by ECB board member Luis de Guindos in a

In a note, analysts at Bank Credit Analyst suggest that the monetary easing measures introduced by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) may offer a short-term lift to market sentiment. However, drawing parallels to Japan’s housing crisis of the 1990s, they warn that monetary easing alone is unlikely to halt a deflationary spiral or drive

Prior week 219K revised to 222KInitial jobless claims 218K vs 225K est4- week moving average initial jobless 224.75 vs 228.25 Continuing claims 1.834M vs 1.838M estimate. Prior week revised to 1.821M from 1.829M prior4-week moving average continuing claims 1.836M versus 1.842M last week. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 14

Prelim reading was +3.0%Final Q1 was +1.4% (unrevised) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar came under renewed pressure recently following the surprisingly weak US consumer confidence report on Tuesday. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

That follows from the report here. And the odds of a 25 bps rate cut for next month are now at ~80%. As for the remaining two meetings combined (the other in December), traders are seeing ~48 bps of rate cuts in total now. But to be fair, that is just a mild step up

Ahead of Kugler, the market was pricing in a 62% chance of a 50 bps cut on November 7. Says she will support additional rate cuts going forwardFed should keep focus on reducing inflation and also shift attention to maximum employmentEstimates PCE inflation at 2.2% in August, Core PCE at 2.7% in signs of progress

We get the ‘final’ Q2 US GDP report today but that’s generally not a market mover as now we’re just 4 days away from the end of Q3. More important today are initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. I’d put claims at the top of the list. Here is Parker Ross on claims, as

And on the week itself, the greenback is now trading more mixed heading into the new day in Europe. The changes today are light but here is how things are playing out so far on the week: The commodity currencies are still well ahead, with risk trades continuing to stay more buoyed. Wall Street did

UBS cite various supply and demand factors for their forecast. Beginning with Federal Reserve’s growth-oriented monetary policy contributing to a favourable environment for oil prices. UBS point out that Brent crude often benefits from positive market sentiment, which has improved since the Fed began easing its policies. In the long run, the Fed’s efforts to

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe On the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 got rejected from the cycle highs and pulled back. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high, while the sellers will likely step back in

US sells 5-year notes at 3.519% vs 3.519% WIRussian Putin: Current military – political situation is changing dynamicallyHurricane Helene expected to make landfall in Florida on Thursday eveningUS crude oil inventories for the current week -4.471M versus -1.354M estimateUS new home sales units for August 0.716M vs 0.700M estimate Markets: Gold up $3 to $2659US

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 and 1.1180-90 levels. That could play a role in locking price action a fair bit during the session ahead, amid the lack of other catalysts in driving the currency pair. That at least

Eurostoxx +1.2%Germany DAX +1.1%France CAC 40 +1.2%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.9%Italy FTSE MIB +0.9% This comes as the Shanghai Composite index closes up by 3.6% to close above the 3,000 mark for the first time since June. Meanwhile, the CSI 300 index closes up by a whopping 4.2% on the day. For the week itself,

I posted on the note from UBS briefly yesterday, following the announcements from China on Tuesday. Adding a little more now. The analysis highlights a positive shift toward a more accommodative policy stance, though it falls short of the significant stimulus measures seen in past years that drove sustained market rallies. According to the note,

MUFG note that the euro may continue to rise following a boost from China’s stimulus measures announced on Tuesday “Increased global growth optimism will help and the stimulus measures announced by China will certainly add to dollar selling momentum” MUFG add that especially since the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to hasten interest rate

Earlier headline on this is here: Reports that China is considering injecting US$142bn of capital into top banks A huge injection would be the first since the 2008 global financial crisis. The capital injection would be into China’s biggest state banks, struggling with shrinking margins, faltering profits, rising bad loans. The broader economic picture weighing

Further rate cuts may be necessary in the coming quartersStronger franc, lower oil and electricity prices contributed to lower inflation forecastsSwiss economic growth will be ‘rather modest’ in the coming quarters He’s mainly just repeating the policy statement for the most part. USD/CHF is down 0.1% on the day to 0.8490 but off earlier lows

Listen out for clues about the next rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Expectatins are currently solidifying around a 50bp cut again at the November meeting. The times given below are US Eastern time / GMT: 0910/1310 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins hosts a virtual fireside chat with Federal

The Dow and S&P index felt fell while the NASDAQ index rose in trading today The Dow industrial average closed at record levels for four consecutive days. That string was broken today with a decline of -293.47 points or -0.70% at 41914.75.The S&P index two day string of record closes was also broken when it

The pair suffered a technical rejection from the June and July 2023 highs near 0.6900 yesterday. But it is seen bouncing back today, gaining further after the Politburo sounded a strong message to support the measures undertaken this week to bolster the Chinese economy. Chinese equities are rallying further as a result after the lunch

China news headline from Bloomberg and Reuters. China injected capital into big banks during the global financial crisis back in 2008. That was the last time it did so. Pondering doing it again now. This sort of stuff is very positive for ‘risk’, at least for a trade. Folks will always worry that its not

The NZDUSD has been tracking the 100-hour MA higher There have been some brief moves below the 100 hour MA over the last few weeks, with a few times when the price dipped below the MA but quickly rebounded higher. Today, there has been another dip below the 100 hour MA. Seller are “making a

Will ensure necessary fiscal spendingWill step up force of counter-cyclical adjustments of fiscal, monetary policiesWill strive to achieve full-year economic, social development targetsTo make efforts to stop falls in property market and to get it stabilisedWill increase efforts to attract and stabilise investments The main message here is that they are trying to amplify all

The China stimulus announcement on Tuesday continues to make waves: BCA suggest that the stimulus announced from China is 1990s Japan all over againEyes on China to boost the … euroUBS analysis predicts market support from October stimulus; Renminbi hedging recommendedUBS is forecasting Brent crude oil back to US$87 (by year end) *** People’s Bank

Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review, September 2024. Headlines via Reuters: The Australian financial system is resilient, and risks are contained.Risks include stress in China’s financial sector and a lack of significant response from Beijing.Low global risk premia and high leverage increase the danger of a disorderly downturn in global asset prices.The financial system

Bank of America cite: fading of excessively negative views on the UK economyUK remains a largely underinvested/undervalued sector in the asset allocation spacethe currency remains fundamentally undervaluedthe political backdrop is more favourablethere is a more positive outlook for UK-EU relations GBP/USD fell on Wednesday in line with a surging USD pretty much everywhere. Faster cuts

The index is up 7% on the week currently and looks poised to hold the rallying mood before the Chinese holiday next week. Beijing has made a plethora of announcements and promises this week to try and bolster economic activity. And that is lifting the overall mood, even if it is via the monetary policy

Bank of Japan July meeting minutes, full text here. Headlines via Reuters: Members shared a view over the need for vigilance to the risk of inflation overshoot.Many members said it was appropriate to raise rates to 0.25%, adjusting the degree of monetary support.A few members said it was appropriate to adjust the degree of monetary

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the July 2024 meeting, where short term rates were raised again in a bit of a surprise decision, or would have been if it wasn’t leaked all over the place the day before! BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is

Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler is speaking still. Earlier here: Fed’s Kugler says she strongly supported 50 bps rate cut And: More from Fed’s Kugler – We do not want the labour market to weaken further In that ‘More from’ post are few buried comments on job numbers that’ll get the Federal Open Market

We had the minutes of the Bank of Japan July meeting earlier, confirming board members want to continue along the rate hike path, albeit at a measured pace. JPY found some bids, with useyn dipping to lows around 144.45. Since then its bounced back, highs have been around 144.94. The USD surged on Wednesday: Forexlive