Relative monetary policy drives currencies’ exchange rates. Therefore, the market pays close attention whenever a central bank holds a meeting and updates its monetary policy stance. This week, three major central banks—the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)—will announce their verdicts on interest rates on Wednesday, […]

What a run in stock markets. The S&P 500 is up 35 points today, or 0.6%, in what’s on track to be the seventh day of gains and is only a fraction away from taking out the July all-time high of 5669. So it’s a seven-day winning streak and running into major resistance. That’s a

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Bitcoin has climbed above the September high in a strong turnaround from yesterday’s selloff. It’s up 5.3% or $3000 in the best gain in a week. Bitcoin has struggled to keep pace with the improving risk appetite in September and is well-below the summer highs as US stocks flirt with records. Bitcoin has had a

This one isn’t going to make life easier for the Fed doves. The Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow tracker rose to 3.0% today from 2.5%. After recent releases from the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of

The Dow is still on pace for record high levels today, but the S&P backed off after trading to a new intraday high today. The old high was at 5669.67 from back on July 16. The high price today extended to 5670.82 before backing off. The current price is trading at 5655.43. That is stil

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Prior -0.2%Retail sales $710.8 billion versus $709.7 billion priorRetail sales +0.1% versus -0.2% expectedPrior m/m sales +1.0% (revised to +1.1%)Retail sales YoY +2.1% versus +2.7% priorEx autos +0.1% versus +0.2% expectedPrior ex autos +0.4% priorControl group +0.3% versus +0.3% expectedEx autos and gas +0.2% versus +0.4% priorFull report Heading into the report, market was putting

On the day: STOXX 600 +0.7%German DAX +0.5%Francis CAC +0.6%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% Those are some decent gains, though I would have liked to have seen a better finish as a good portion of the gains evaporated late. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The WSJ is reporting that JPM is in talks with Apple to take over credit card business from Golman. The program has over 12 million users and roughly $17 billion in outstanding balances. Apple has been seeking a new issuer after deciding to part ways with Goldman Sachs, the current issuer, last year. JPMorgan is

Price index at $3883Whole milk powder +1.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The changes among the day remain light, with dollar pairs all holding within 10 pips change currently. It’s just one of those days where even if there are any moves, one shouldn’t look too much into it. At this point, it’s all about the Fed tomorrow. USD/JPY was a bit more volatile in Asia, trading

Last month, July retail sales nudged up by 1.0% and beat estimates here. Ten out of the thirteen categories showed an increase, so that helped. But this time around, the estimate is for headline retail sales to show a 0.2% decline. That said, ex-autos is estimated to increase by 0.2% and the more important control

An incredible attack occurred in Lebanon today with 2800 members of Hezbollah and other Iranian-linked individuals wounded and 200 in critical condition. The pagers they were using exploded at the same time in what was surely some kind of long-planned attack. Hezbollah had been using cell phones to coordinate but evidently switched to pagers due

The US data this morning came in better than expected which has softened the Fed expectations for tomorrow a bit, but it is still leaning toward 50 bps. The retail sales data today has GDP looking toward 3% for the 3Q. That is pretty good. The question is “Has inflation – and expectations for inflation

Today we have quite a few top-tier economic releases. In the European session we just have the German ZEW which is expected at 17.1 vs. 19.2 prior. The most important releases will be in the American session when we will get the Canadian CPI, the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production. The US

The major US indices are trading higher at the start of the trading day. Retail sales were better than expectations. That might mean the Fed might lean toward a 25 basis points but it also means that the economy is not as bad as hoped. The Dow industrial average closed at a record level yesterday

Prior was -0.6% (revised to -0.9%)Capacity utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% expectedPrior utilization 77.8% (revised to 77.4%)Manufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expectedPrior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.7%) The negative revisions take some of the shine off this report but it’s still a a good one. In July, Hurricane Beryl likely depressed production and this is

The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos is out with a tweet that references his earlier Fed preview. There is no leak here. “The Fed faces a finely balanced set of considerations over whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting that begins today,” he writes. The argument for cutting 50 is based on

Sector Overview The US stock market is seeing significant gains today, with a notable emphasis on the technology sector. Microsoft (MSFT) is up by 1.74%, while Amazon (AMZN) shows the most remarkable increase in consumer cyclicals, soaring by 1.32%. Nvidia (NVDA) adds to the momentum with a rise of 1.68% in the semiconductor space, marking

Major currencies aren’t up to much today, with the dollar keeping steadier after its fall yesterday. USD/JPY did bounce back from lows under 140.00 to around 140.70 now, with the high earlier touching 141.25. There’s still much volatility in the pair compared to the others but this week, it’s all about the Fed. The bond

Eyes are on the US retail sales report today, and the ‘control group’ in particular that excludes the volatile components on food, energy and building materials. The consensus is for a +0.3% reading to match the prior month. Going into the data, the market is pricing in a 67% probability of a 50 basis point

I’ve noted this already, but ICYMI. China and South Korea are out againJapan is open after its holiday on Monday. As an aside, Hong Kong will be closed tomorrow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Canadian CPI report highlights how far the Bank of Canada has fallen behind the curve. Virtually the lone sources of inflation are mortgage interest and shelter, which is due to laggy rent calculations. Overall inflation is at 2.0%, hitting the target for the first time since 2021 but a deeper dive shows a weaker

That is one of the key charts to watch in markets at the moment. 2-year yields remain heavy close to the 3.55% mark but bond players will have to wait for vindication from the Fed tomorrow still. Besides that, 10-year yields are seen around 3.62% at roughly its lowest levels this year currently. In FX,

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.7%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% The risk mood today is also in a decent spot, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.15%. Nasdaq futures are up 0.27% while Dow futures are up 0.11% currently. In FX, major currencies are still not up to much with dollar

Will the US retail sales later mess up the Fed odds even more?Dollar holds lightly changed on the dayGold rally stalls as traders wait on Fed decisionGermany September ZEW survey current conditions -84.5 vs -80.0 expectedEuropean indices hold higher to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European tradingFX

The US retail sales report wasn’t a game-changer for tomorrow’s FOMC decision but it offers some angst for those who are expecting a 50 basis point cut. Sales rose 0.1% compared to -0.2% expected in a sign that the consumer is just fine. The control group, which excludes volatile components on gasoline, autos and building

Following recent success at the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit in Australia earlier this month, multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets, was presented with three coveted Global Forex Awards at a ceremony held at the La Caleta in Limassol on Thursday 12 September. FP Markets was voted ‘Best Value Broker – Global’ for the sixth

Kickstart the FX trading day for September 17 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Included today is a bonus look at the USDCAD after Canada released lower-than-expected CPI data, and the US reported better-than-expected retail sales data. The EURUSD has moved down and away from a swing area between 1.1131 and

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. Having said that, the top to bottom ranking is scrunched together with little separating the winners and losers. The market is awaiting key data is my guess. Today, the FOMC meeting starts, but it won’t end (well they

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.6% Apple shares weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq in Wall Street trading but the Dow closed at a fresh record high. The breakdown for the latter can be found below (h/t @ Yahoo Finance). So, European equities just have some catching up to do. That as the mood music

Gold jumped higher in trading last week to fresh record highs but the latest leg is falling just shy of the $2,600 mark. Buyers are still in control but it looks like we might have to wait until the Fed tomorrow before deciding on where to go from here. As traders step up bets for

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -77.3Economic sentiment 3.6 vs 17.0 expectedPrior 19.2 German investor sentiment dropped in September with the outlook also tumbling lower on the month. It’s a setback to hopes for a recovery in the economic situation. ZEW notes that there is now a noticeable decline in economic expectations. And that most respondents have already factored the

More from Japan Finance Minister Suzuki – analysing the impact of the strengthening yenBlackRock is wary on Chinese equities – measured policy support is not enoughUBS says a Fed rate cut is ‘long overdue’, but a 50bp cut might be taken as panicIs the bond market going to strong arm the Fed into a 50bp

Japan finance minister Suzuki Forex fluctuations have both merits and demerits on the Japanese economyWill respond appropriately after analyzing impact of forex movesRapid fx moves undesirableImportant for currencies to move a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals USD/JPY is up from lows around 139.60 on Monday. It hit above 141.20 earlier in the session here. Suzuki’s cage

Blackrock comments on China echoing broader market views: The People’s Bank of China has been cutting rates but it’s not in the same boat as the Fed. It’s facing weak consumer demand, excess production capacity and deflation – based on broad measures of inflation – that could become entrenched. The lack of fiscal and other

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

UBS make the case that a Fed rate cut is anticipated, and has been for some time, given the ongoing decline in inflation pressures in the US. However, say analysts at the bank, a reduction of more than 25 basis points appears unlikely. Although the Fed is behind the curve in lowering rates, a more

New Zealand Treasury report, in summary: Indicators for June quarter GDP point to a drop in economic activity. We anticipate the economy contracted by 0.4% in the quarter, down from a forecast of 0.2% growth at our Budget Update. Economic data has been weak despite a period of record migrationled population growth. However, with migration

Via the latest weekly note from BlackRock Investment Institute, says markets overly excited about Fed rate cuts: Markets expect the Fed to cut rates sharply – and we think this pricing is overdone. U.S. inflation has slowed as pandemic disruptions have faded and due to a temporary immigration boost to the workforce. We see inflation

This is a political call, nothing else. The three: Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. “It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. In fact, it may be too late: your delays have threatened the economy and left the Fed behind

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1125 level. It rests at the 38.2/61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower since August, so there’s that. But if anything else, the expiries could just keep price action stickier until we get to

Empire Fed Sept manufacturing survey +11.5 vs -4.75 expectedCanada July manufacturing sales +1.4% vs +1.1% expectedECB’s Lane: Incoming data on wages and profits have been in line with expectationsECB’s Kazaks: Interest rates will continue to be loweredWH Brainard: It is now important to safeguard progress in US labor marketFormer NY Fed Pres Dudley says it’s

It’s a very sparse data agenda. China and South Korea remain closedJapan reopens after its holiday Monday As a ps. Hong Kong will be closed tomorrow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters reporting on Goldman Sachs reiterating its optimistic outlook on gold prices. GS cite: central bank demandimminent interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve “While we see some tactical downside to gold prices under our economists’ base case of a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday, we reiterate our long gold trading recommendation and our

UBS are arguing the retail sales data could tip the balance between a 25bp and 50bp rate cut: retail sales and industrial production data … weakness in these could potentially influence the Fed decision to cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp instead of 25bp I am not so sure that one data point (or

Goldman Sachs’ projections, citing Fed rate cuts as a key driver: end 2024 target 5600 points6-month target 570012-month target 6000 points GS expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut by 200 basis points by the end of 2025 – Last I have from GS is expecting a 25bp cut this week. This article

Headline is here from earlier: Microsoft (MSFT) has announced a new US$60bn share repurchase program More detail now, via MarketWatch. In brief: increase in quarterly dividend by 8 cents, or 10% @ 83 cents a shareto shareholders of record as of November 21new $60 billion buyback programs the third largest among all U.S. companies this

Before Nick Timiraos, the WSJ Fedwatcher was Jon Hilsenrath. He left the WSJ last year but is still watching the Federal Reserve and weighed in today, saying the Fed will cut by 50 basis points on Wednesday. The Fed is on what I call an “Express Train” to a neutral interest rate. I expect it

I’ve posted on this earlier, but ICYMI and have rocked up for the daily mid-rate setting from the People’s Bank of China, I have some bad news. China is out on holiday today, there will be no mid-rate set for USD/CNY.South Korea is also on holidays today. Hong Kong will be on holidays tomorrow. Offshore

Comments from Suzuki are here from earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable Reuters adds a little more: government will continue to analyse the impact of the strengthening yen on the economy and respond appropriatelysaid the stronger yen could affect the economy both positively and negatively through various channels, such as

The Bank of Japan are meeting on September 19 and 20. The announcement will be some time in the 0230 GMT to 0330 GMT time window on Friday (they’re is no firmly set time): 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time The latest rhetoric we have heard from the BoJ has been hawkish (well, relatively, hawkish

Markets are now pricing an above 50% probability (well above) for a 50bp FOMC rate cut on Wednesday. Consider: 1. Is the FOMC going to think that if they don’t cut by 50bp it’ll trigger huge financial market volatility? 2. Or is the FOMC behind it all, drip feeding info to bond insiders to provide

Morgan Stanley analysts on the balancing act at the Fed: In the very short-term, we think the best case scenario for equities this week is that the Fed can deliver a 50bp rate cut without triggering either growth concerns or any remnants of the yen carry trade unwind—i.e., purely an “insurance cut” ahead of macro

Microsoft (MSFT) has announced a new USD 60bln share repurchase program also, quarterly dividend increase of 10% to US$0.83/share This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The investing world has largely given up on China as a growth driver this year and the outlook for 2025 continues to dim, with officials showing no urgency to turn the tide. On the weekend, new house prices fell for the 15th consecutive month. And not y/y drop but monthly. The last three months of

The US major stock indices are closing mixed. The Dow industrial average and closing at a record closing level. The S&P index is closing around 0.6% from a record closing level and is now up 6 consecutive days. The NASDAQ index is closing lower and snapped a 5-day winning streak. Shares of Apple led the

The ECB cut rates last week but the market sees them holding steady in October with just a 28% implied probability of a cut. I think that would be a mistake. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8 pts to an 8 week high.ANZ says it was a broad based rise. 84.1 is still deep in pessimism but I guess we’ll take it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $70.09. The low for the day reached $68.68. The high for the day extended up to $70.66. Technically, the price low today stalled right near its 200-hour moving average. That moving average is currently at $68.62. The subsequent move to the upside also moved back above

The days of high yielding safe investments may be over for a generation. Jamie Dimon is continuing to warn about inflation but the bond market has moved on. Breakeven rates are below 2%, implying that the Fed is more likely to undershoot its target and nominal rates continue to fall, despite swelling deficits. US 10-year

Sector Overview The stock market today presents a mixed bag with distinct sector performances as reflected on the heatmap. Technology is facing challenges while healthcare and energy sectors are showing resilience. Technology: Sectors within tech are under pressure. Microsoft (MSFT) is down slightly by 0.12%, and major setbacks are seen with Apple (AAPL), dropping 2.75%,

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.4%Francis CAC -0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 flatSpain’s IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB flat This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Negotiated wage growth will remain high and volatile over the remainder of the yearA gradual approach to dialing back restrictiveness will be appropriate if the incoming data are in line with the baseline projectionWe should retain optionality about the speed of adjustment Lane is putting 50 bps on the table here but it will take

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, we finally got the breakout in gold after a softer than expected US PPI report. That was kind of a strange move but eventually the momentum picked up and we got the rally into new all-time highs. Late Thursday we have also got WSJ’s Timiraos publishing an article suggesting that a

BofA advises against reacting to any initial hawkish market responses following the September FOMC meeting. They anticipate a 25bps rate cut and expect the Fed’s dot plot to exceed market expectations, but expect Powell’s tone to remain dovish. Key Points: Market Uncertainty: High Uncertainty: The market is highly uncertain about the September FOMC meeting, reflecting

WH economic advisor Lael Brainard is no the news wires saying: It is now important to safeguard progress in US labor market.US economy has reached important turning point in fight against inflation.Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels.It is critical to continue work to address affordability challenges and create opportunities for working families.

I could probably count a dozen instances in the past week or so of economists I respect saying the Fed should cut 50 basis points but probably will only cut 25 bps. At some point, that chorus grows so loud that it tips the balance. We’re likely at that point now with the Fed funds

The USDJPY moved to the lowest level since July 31 2023 after falling below the end of December low at 140.248. The low price extended to a somewhat random level at 139.570 before rotating back to the upside. That move has now taken the price back above the end of December low at 140.248. It

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 118 bps (59% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 250 bps ECB: 39 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 157 bps BoE: 54 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 172 bps BoC: 67 bps (76%

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest followed closely by the GBP, and the USD is the weakest. The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday and again on Wednesday before announcing their rate decision on Tuesday at 2 PM ET. A press conference will commence at 2:30 with Fed Chair Powell.

Earlier news: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmed The key headline news is that Trump is unhurt, thankfully. There are conflicting reports re the shooting: CNN reports that the gunfire at Trump’s golf club were intended to hit TrumpNY Post reports the shots were fired in relation to an ‘outside

The Canadian housing market is not looking healthy, particularly the Toronto condo market. The government is reacting with finance minister Chrystia Freeland extending 30-year loan amortization to all first-time home buyers and buyers of newly-built homes, all with CMHC insurance. Canada has gone back-and-forth on 30-year mortgages since the financial crisis. 2008: The government reduced

We’ve seen this pattern a few times recently: Positioning data released late on Friday shows extremely negative positioning in oil and on Monday there is a squeeze higher. Unfortunately, the gains haven’t lasted, at least not recently. There are already signs of that with WTI rising as high as $70.70 but now pulling back to

The USDCAD has been consolidating over the last 4-5 trading days. After reaching the high on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, the price has seen lower highs including today’s high (so far at least). However, the lows since midday Tuesday has bottomed near 1.3564. That is now just above the rising 200 hour MA at

The AUDUSD on Friday, found support buyers at the 200-hour MA (currently at 0.66949). Earlier on Friday, sellers leaned against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6733. Today, the buyers took control once again near the 200 bar MA in the early Asian session, and pushed the price higher.. IN the early

Prior +1.3%HICP +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y prelimPrior +1.6% Core annual inflation is seen stable at 1.9% and it has been relatively steady over the last few months. That’s a somewhat positive takeaway but this trend is still not yet observed in Europe’s largest economy i.e. Germany. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The strongest NY Fed manufacturing PMI since April 2022 helped to lift USD/JPY off the floor. The pair touched as low as 139.59 today but rose around 40 pips on the PMI and has continued to track higher, rising to 140.55. Aside from JPY, the US dollar is broadly lower with the euro, pound and

Greg Ip is the chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal (gated). He has weighed in on the FOMC decision coming up on Wednesday, September 18: The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision this week looks more difficult than it should be. The real question isn’t how much to cut, but where rates ought to be.

The last two trading days in the NZDUSD have developed a pattern. That pattern is to ping-pong between the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart on the topside (currently at 0.61967), and the 100-hour moving average on the downside at 0.61565. In between sits the 200-hour moving average at 0.61698. Traders are leaning on

F In the kickstart video for September 16, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pair vs the USD – the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. This week, the US Fed, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will all meet. At their last meetings the BOE cut rates by 25

Services inflation is still resisting for nowOur main concern is services inflation as suchWe don’t have a pre-determined path for ratesWe will decide on a meeting by meeting basis These aren’t anything new and it just reaffirms the policy path that the ECB is on currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been quite a turn for former New York Fed President Bill Dudley. Back in late May, he was calling for the Federal Reserve to hike rates further but now he’s saying they should be cutting by 50 basis points. The two objectives of the Fed’s dual mandate — price stability and maximum sustainable employment

This will keep market players on their toes in the days ahead, especially the Fed decision. USD/JPY is on the brink of a break under 140.00 and 2-year Treasury yields might be threatening a fall to its lowest in two years. Meanwhile, gold is surging to fresh record highs as broader markets are still taking

US stocks are mixed to start the trading week. The Dow is higher (and trading at a new all-time high), but the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are lower. Recall that last week both of those indices rose each of the trading days for the week. That came after sharp declines the prior week. The

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published a new ‘Analytical Note’ that seeks to assess monetary policy surprises and how they impact on financial market instruments. Material monetary policy surprises are defined as instances where market pricing for the OCR immediately prior to an announcement is more than 5 basis points different from the

A busy week lies ahead in terms of economic events, but Monday kicks off slowly with no significant scheduled releases. On Tuesday, the highlight will be the Canadian inflation data, followed by the U.S. retail sales m/m figures. Wednesday brings inflation data from the U.K., alongside building permits, housing starts, and the most anticipated event

Headlines: Dollar remains pinned down to start the new weekMajor central bank decisions to dominate the agenda in trading this weekECB’s de Guindos: Our projections show inflation will hover around 2% by end of 2025ECB’s Kažimír: Will almost surely wait until December for next rate cutEurozone July trade balance €21.2 billion vs €22.3 billion priorItaly

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

Japanese markets are closed today for Respect for the Aged Day. Chinese markets are closed today, and tomorrow, for the Mid-Autumn Festival. New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore markets remain open. – Even with Japan closed the yen is likely to sweing around This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

Prior 0.0% Looking at the breakdown, producer prices rose by 0.6% on the month but was offset by a 0.5% drop in import prices. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -2.1%Manufacturing sales ex-autos +1.6% vs -1.6% priorSales at $71.0 billion vs $69.6 billion priorSales -1.1% y/y vs -1.8% y/y priorTotal inventory levels +0.9% vs +0.1% priorInventory to sales 1.73Unfilled orders +0.6% vs -0.8% prior This is a good number and a nice rebound but inventories are swelling. This article was written by Adam

Japan is on holiday today, but that is irrelevant to yen buyers. USD/JPY to its lowest in 12 months, without fresh news nor data to drive it (none is needed, as I’ve been saying for a while now): The USD is lower pretty much across the board also. Even AUD, which had been troubled by

Prior €22.3 billion Comparing to last year, the euro area trade balance is showing a surplus of roughly €128 billion from January to July. And that compares to the roughly €4 billion surplus only in the same period last year. Energy price developments are of course a big factor, leading to a drop in imports.

Analysts at Bank of America are not expecting clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate path ahead from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEthat’ll be published on Wednesday alongside the rate cut decision. Nor are they expecting much guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s pres conference. BoA say that there is much uncertainty over the outlook

General business conditions 11.5 versus -4.7 priorBest reading since April 2022New orders 9.4 versus -7.9 priorShipments 17.9 versus 0.3 priorUnfilled orders 2.1 versus -7.4 priorDelivery times -1.1 versus -3.2 priorInventories 0.0 versus -10.6 priorPrices paid 23.2 versus 23.4 priorPrices received 7.4 versus 8.5 priorNumber of employees -5.7 versus -6.7 priorAverage employee workweek 2.9 versus -17.8

It may be a holiday in Japan and China but that hasn’t dampened the trading mood to start the week so far. The dollar is pushed lower as we look towards European trading, with USD/JPY in particular testing the 140.00 mark. The low earlier touched 139.94 and marks the lowest level since July last year.

The greenback is the laggard in trading today and is being pushed lower in European morning trade. USD/JPY is the standout as it nudges under the 140.00 mark but it’s not the only pair on the move. GBP/USD is up 0.5% to near 1.3200 and AUD/USD also up 0.5% to 0.6740 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is

There aren’t really any to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely more on the positioning flows in the run up to the FOMC meeting later in the week. The dollar is under pressure now with yields pinned lower and that will continue to be the key drivers in play

UBS analysts have reaffirm their bullish outlook on gold, pointing to its value as a hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties: maintains a target price of $2,700/oz by mid-2025 In brief from the UBS report: Gold has jumped by 23% in 2024, to its highest ever price, due to lower US yield expectations and diversification

Domestic sight deposits CHF 458.2 bn vs CHF 447.3 bn prior That’s the highest reading for total sight deposits since the middle of May this year. And that perhaps suggest the SNB might be in the market to rein in the strength in the franc. That would not be too surprising as they have dubbed

It would take a significant shift in the outlook for the ECB to cut in OctoberVery little new information in the pipeline before October meetingThere is no rush to cut ratesThe safest approach is to wait for the outlook to become clearer All this is very much a given now and they have guided markets

UBS says gold is its “Most Preferred” in its global asset allocationWSJ opinion piece argues the Fed should cut by a 50bp, not 25BoA analysts are not expecting much clarity from the FOMC this weekICYMI – China quietly slipped out very weak data over the weekendReminder – there is no reference rate setting for the

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures flat US futures aren’t up to much as well, keeping flattish overall to start the session. The risk mood is more tentative as market players are eyeing the Fed decision later this week as the main event. But even so, the dollar is holding softer in the major currencies

Data from China for August economic activity was terrible. Weak consumption was reflected in very slow retail sales growth. A previous bright spot, industrial production, decelerated also. Youth unemployment remained wedged at 17.1% Home prices slumped at their sharpest rate in a year. My post from the weekend included bizarrely upbeat comments from China’s National

Gold keeps on rising, no end in sight – especially with ongoing central bank rate cuts. I posted this earlier, with other factors supportive for the metal: UBS says gold is its “Most Preferred” in its global asset allocation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is testing waters last seen back in July last year. The dip below 140.00 today is threatening to firmly take out the low from December last year on the daily chart. And from a psychological perspective, a firm break below 140.00 itself will keep sellers very much in control to start the new

We had terrible data out of China over the weekend: China August: Retail sales +2.1% y/y (expected +2.5) Industrial production +4.5% y/y (4.8) There won’t be a response from Chinese stocks as markets are closed there today and tomorrow: Chinese and Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024, for holidays As for today’s

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, today is going to be a boring one on the data front as we don’t have anything on the agenda. The main event of the week is of course the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The market pricing is now more in favour of a 50 bps cut with

The key us data this week is on Tuesday, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement following the next day. UBS are eyeing the retail sales and industrial production data, saying that weakness in these could potentially influence the Fe decd to cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp instead of 25bp. UBS says

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% The start of the session is turning interesting with USD/JPY inching back below the 140.00 mark again. That comes as bond yields are staying pressured and the dollar also softening across the board. US futures are also down slightly now, with

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reports surrounding the shooting are still sketchy and we await further information. Was does seem to be clear is that Trump is unhurt, safe and well. Thankfully. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1081USD/JPY 140.75GBP/USD 1.3127USD/CHF 0.8474USD/CAD 1.3596AUD/USD 0.6709NZD/USD 0.6158 Usual warning … on a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until

Data via property website Rightmove in the UK September average asking prices for homes increased by 0.8%, double the average for the time of year in the series and the biggest for the month since 2016. -1.5 August For the y/y +1.2% prior +0.8% Rightmove cited the market getting a boost from a new government

Just a reminder to all that if you are trading emini US equity futures on the CME the September contract expires this week. There is a lot going on so you may (probably not) have been distracted. Firstly, if you are new to all this, check out: Understanding Futures Expiration & Contract Roll Alternatively, if

Both China and Japan are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024: Chinese and Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024, for holidays As a ps. South Korea is closed today also. China will also be closed tomorrow, Tuesday, September 17, 2024. We’ll not be getting a USD/ CNY reference rate setting from the

Trump Media’s stock trades on the Nasdaq Composite. It surged in price on Friday after Trump announced he won’t be selling shares in the company. That spike was so big that it triggered two five-minute trading pauses. Such pauses are routine, and are designed to provide a cooling period. They happen dozens of times a

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for August 2024 is 45.4 prior 45.2remains in contraction, now for 6 months in a row – longest period since the global financial crisis average over the history of the survey is 53.2 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: smoothing through monthly volatility, the PSI’s 3-month average remains

Gunshots were fired “in the vicinity” of former President Donald Trump on Sunday. The shooting took place at Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump International Golf Course, “where former President Trump was golfing”. Trump is unharmed. The last time Trump suffered an injury to his ear. This time nothing, thankfully. This article

The FBI, Secret Service, and local law enforcement will hold a press conference regarding the attempted assassination of former President Trump. Awaiting details. So far: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmedMore on the Trump shooting (Trump is unharmed) – Secret Service returned fireTrump shooting (he’s unharmed) – Checking indicative FX

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke in an interview with the Financial Times. FT is gated, but in very brief Macklem expressed concern about the labor market: “labor market is pointing to some downside risks””As you get closer to the target … You become more concerned about the downside risks” Those snippets via Reuters.

Shots were fired near Trump at his gold course in Florida on Sunday afternoon. Reports are still sketchy. So far: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmedMore on the Trump shooting (Trump is unharmed) – Secret Service returned fireTrump shooting (he’s unharmed) – Checking indicative FX rates – 16 September 2024

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, BoE, US & UK Retail Sales, UK, Canada & Japan CPI, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP Sat: China Activity Data (Aug)Mon: N/ATue: EZ/German ZEW (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug), US Industrial Production & Manufacturing Output (Aug), Business Inventories (Jul), NAHB Housing Index (Sep)Wed: FOMC

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI.Tuesday: Eurozone ZEW, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, US NAHB Housing Market Index.Wednesday: UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, BoC Summary of Deliberations, FOMC Policy Decision.Thursday: New Zealand Q2 GDP, Australia Labour Market report, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Japan

China retail sales, industrial output, investment data for August 2024 – another round of disappointing results. Retail Sales +2.1% (YoY) (Aug) expected 2.5%, prior 2.7% Industrial Production +4.5% (YoY) (Aug) expected 4.8%, prior 5.1% Fixed Asset Investment +3.4$(YTD) (YoY) (Aug) expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% Unemployment 5.3% expected 5.2%, prior 5.2% Also published were home prices

Crude oil futures is settling at $68.65. That is down $0.32 -0.46%. The high price reached $70.32. The low price was at $68.50 THe selling into the settlement took the price below the 200 hour MA at $68.91. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the week, moves to the close, what are the technicals telling traders going into the new trading week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

To cut, or not to cut 50 basis points. As the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaches, JP Morgan reiterates its call for a 50 basis point cut, scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Following Nick Timiraos’ article highlighting the Fed’s predicament, market odds have shifted from 20-80 to a nearly even 50-50 split. Former

Monday, September 16 (ET) 8:30am ET: US Empire State Manufacturing Index (Forecast: -4.1, Previous: -4.70) Tuesday, September 17 (ET) 5:00am ET: German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Forecast: 17.2, Previous: 19.2) 8:30am ET: CAD CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Retail Sales m/m

Goldman Sachs is keeping it 25 basis point cut forecast for the Fed next week. They also see cuts of 25 basis points in both November and December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ and S&P indices end the week with five straight days of gains Goldman Sachs sees a 25 basis point cut from the Fed next weekNext week will be dominated by the FOMC rate decision.Crude oil futures settled at $68.65ECB’s Makhlouf: ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.Go big or go small? JP

The major US stock indices closed the day with gains. The NASDAQ and the S&P had a perfect week with five straight winning days. The NASDAQ index erased it -5.77% decline from last week with a gain of 5.95%. A snapshot of the closing levels today shows: Dow industrial average rose 297.01 points or 0.72%

The comments from Makhlouf are in-line with the views expressed by ECBs Lagarde. The ECB is sittiong on the fence and waiting….even if it might be uncomfortable. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior quarter: 78.5% revised to 78.6% Details: Canadian industries operated at 79.1% capacity in Q2 2024.This is a slight increase from 78.6% in Q1 2024.The Q1 2024 capacity utilization was revised up by 0.1 percentage point. Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Capacity utilization increased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.2% in Q2.Growth driven

The USDCHF is moving lower with the US yields. The price has broken below a cluster of moving averages defined by the 200 hour moving average and the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart at 0.8478, and the 100 hour moving average of 0.84916. Stay below those levels keeps the sellers more

The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above

The Bakers Hughes rig count for the current week shows: Total rig up 8 at 590Oil rigs + 5 at 488NatGas rigs +3 and 97 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move

The CNBC retail monitor sees consumer spending cooling, but still higher: Retail sales ex auto and gas MoM: +0.5% versus +0.7% last month. Retail Sales YoY ex auto and gas: +2.1% versus +0.9% last monthCore Retail Sales MoM: 0.2% versus +1.0% last monthCore Retail Sales YoY: on .9% versus 1.7% last month Looking at the

This will include steep tariff hikes on Chinese EVs, solar cells, semiconductors, and steel among other strategic goods. More specifically, it will be a 100% duty on Chinese EVs, 50% on solar cells, and 25% on steel, aluminum and key minerals. All of which will be going into effect on 27 September. As for a

China’s bonds continue to rally (yields lower) as the economy barely stumbles along. We’ll get an economic data update over the weekend: Critical data coming for AUD/USD … this weekend! (Spoiler – China data) If there is a brgith spot it’s the rally for CNH that has given some breathing apce to the People’s Bank

Boeing machinists went on strike after rejecting a 25% pay raise.That is shuttered the going manufacturing plant Here are the main points from the Boeing CFO’s statement Strike Impact: Strike will jeopardize recovery, impact production and deliveries Cash Conservation: Laser-like focus on actions to conserve cash Union Negotiations: Want to get back to the table

Prior +6.3%New yuan loans ¥900 billionPrior ¥260 billion China’s bank lending tumbled in July to its lowest in almost 15 years but it seen rebounding back a little in August, though estimates were expecting it to climb back up to around ¥1.0 trillion. Looking at the year-to-date figure, China’s new yuan loans is totaling up

That’s a wrap for the European stock indices for the trading week, and then ended the day with gains, and the week with gains as well. For the trading day: German DAX +0.92% France’s CAC, +0.41%.UK’s FTSE 100 +0.39%Spain’s Ibex, +1.23%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.34% For the trading week: German DAX +2.11% France’s CAC +1.54%UK’s FTSE

Import prices prior month: +0.1%Export price prior month: was 0.7% revised to us 0.5%Import prices MoM -0.3% % vs -0.2% estimateExport prices MoM -0.7% vs -0.1% estimateImport prices YoY 0.8% vs 1.6% last monthExport prices YoY -0.7% vs 1.4% last month Details: Overall Imports U.S. import prices fell by 0.3% in August, the largest monthly

John Paulsen made a killing by calling the 2008 housing market bubble. A supporter of GOP candidate Trump, he is on CNBC given an interview. He says it is a good time for investingWe did have a bubble in government debt (negative interest rate times), but does not see it anymoreHe favors a 50 basis

Headlines: USD/JPY stays pressured as lower yields weighECB’s Muller: Temporary acceleration in inflation is likelyECB’s Holzmann: There could be room for another rate cut in DecemberECB’s Villeroy: We should continue to reduce gradually and as appropriateECB’s Rehn says will continue to base policy decisions on assessment of inflation outlookECB’s Vasle: We are not committed to

Prior month 67.9University of Michigan consumer sentiment 69.0 versus 68.5 estimate.Best since May 2024Current conditions 62.9 versus 61.5 estimate. Last month 61.3. Best since June 2024expectations and 73.0 versus 71.0 estimate. Last month 72.1. Best since April 20241-yesr inflation expectations 2.7% versus 2.8% last month.5- year inflation expectations 3.1% versus 3.0% last month The final

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) is the Peruvian central bank: cuts reference rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expectedsays the rate cut does not necessarily mean more rate cuts in the futurey/y inflation expected to stay within the target range on the projected horizoncore inflation expected to have a downward trendindicators and forecasts

German DAX futures +0.4%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat This follows from the gains yesterday and also the positive showing in Wall Street overnight. S&P 500 futures are lightly changed on the day though, so we’re not seeing the optimism get too carried away just yet. Just be mindful that bonds are bid

The AUDUSD is higher for the week after dipping lower earlier in the week where the 200 day moving average stalled the fall. The subsequent move to the upside was able to extend above resistance rotated back down toward support and extend above resistance and and step pattern defined by technical levels. Today the run

What a trend for gold. I posted this geopol stuff earlier, if this isn’t a good case for gold I don;t know what is: Putin warns that lifting Ukraine missile restrictions will put NATO at war with Russia Apart from that gold has plenty going for it, has for a long time: This article was

If the Fed wants to organise things in an orderly manner, the market sure isn’t letting them do so. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut dwindled after the US CPI report earlier this week but were reignited again in trading yesterday. The odds of that have moved back up to ~45% now. There

Nick Timiraos from the WSJ has tweeted that economists who map the CPI and PPI to the core PCE, are forecasting a rise of 0.13% to 0.17% for the August PCE. A reading of 0.13% would round to 0.1%, while 0.17% would round up to 0.2%. In either case (0.1% or 0.2%), it extends a

The major US stock indices are opening with modest changes. Coming into the day the S&P and NASDAQ indices are working on a four day winning streak trying to extend that to five for five this week. It is Friday the 13th. Can the markets rise above that jinx? A snapshot of the market currently

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% The drop here fits with the continued softness in the euro area industrial sector, led by the struggles in Germany especially. Looking at the breakdown, intermediate goods dropped by 1.3%, capital goods by 1.6%, durable consumer goods by 2.8%. That was slightly offset by an increase in energy by 0.3%

📈 Technology Sector: A day of gains The technology sector is experiencing notable gains today, buoyed by positive investor sentiment. Oracle (ORCL) leads the charge with an impressive rise of 7.24%, signaling robust performance in software infrastructure. However, Adobe (ADBE) is down 9.50%, suggesting possible challenges or profit-taking occurring in this stock. 📊 Sector Overview:

Fundamental Overview Crude oil is finally finding some footing this week as the dip-buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at a record 13 years low and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason

In the kickstart video, for September 13, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USJDPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it moved to a swing area between 1.10976 and 1.11042 and found willing sellers. That area will be a key resistance level today and going forward. Move above

On the economic calendar today: Canada Capacity Utilization Rate for Q2: Forecast: 78.5%, Previous: 78.5Canada Wholesale Sales m/m: Forecast: -1.1%, Previous -0.6%, US Import Prices m/m: Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: +0.1. US export prices MoM Forecast -0.1%. Previous +0.7%US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 68.5, Previous: 67.9. Current conditions Forecast 61.5, Previous 61.3. Expectations. Forecast 71.0.

Temporary acceleration in inflation is likely.Services inflation is still a concern.The Eurozone economy is awaiting moderate recovery.Confidence is growing that inflation is on the right track. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The only highlight in the European session will be the Industrial Production data, which is rarely a market moving release though. The main event for today will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report but it’s unlikely to change anything in terms of market pricing unless we get huge deviations. 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET –

The day might be spent digesting the European Central Bank decision and spitballing the FOMC one. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in

The UK and the US meet on Friday to discuss plans to allow Kyiv to strike targets inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned he would regard such an agreement as tantamount to NATO directly entering the war. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting

Both the S&P index in the NASDAQ index have been higher on each of the trading days this week. That comes after the NASDAQ index fell by -5.77% last week, and the S&P index fell by -4.25% as well. This week with a 1-day to go: S&P index is up 3.46%NASDAQ index is up 5.27%

The chance for a 50 basis point cut next week by the Fed is now up to 50-50 in volatile trading this morning. At this time yesterday the chance of a 50 basis point cut was only about 20 – 25%. Then comments from Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos where he talked about the dilemma

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) with the info, citing unnamed sources: China poised to cut interest rates on more than $5 trillion of outstanding mortgages as early as this monthSome banks are making final preparations to get ready for the upcoming adjustments on mortgage ratesSome homeowners may enjoy up to 50 basis points of immediate rate reductionTimeline has

Via Westpac on the Australian dollar: AUD/USD is showing some tentative signs of shaking off its lacklustre price action linked to iron ore prices hitting 22mth lows and rocky global market conditions. But AUD must still navigate August China activity data this weekend. August China imports, PMIs and recent credit trends, anecdotally, do not auger

Prior month -0.6% Details of wholesale sales which rose 0.4% versus -1.1% expected: Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed, and grain) grew by 0.4% to $82.7 billion in July.Sales increased in four of the seven subsectors.Growth was led by the agriculture supplies industry group (miscellaneous subsector) and the food, beverage, and tobacco

10-year yields in the US are now down by 5.5 bps to 3.625% and that is weighing further on USD/JPY today. The pair is now down 1% to fresh lows at 140.43 and that is bringing closer the December 2023 low at 140.24 as well as the 140.00 mark. The bounce early yesterday was certainly

No economist predict the BOJ would raise rates in September28 of 52 economists (~54%) expect the BOJ to raise rates by year-endMedian prediction for year-end interest rate is 25 bps higher at 0.50%Of those expecting a rate hike, 18 of 23 economists anticipate it to be in DecemberThe remaining 5 economists expect a hike in

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is mixed to lower. TGIF to all traders. The USDJPY is reacting to the BOJ not raising and the Fed perhaps going 50 bps. The day after the ECB cut, a number of ECB officials are

Broader US stock indices up for the fourth consecutive dayCPI and PPI data point to a tame ore PCE next monthWas the CItigroup trader the best trader in the world? He thinks so.WSJ Timiraos: Fed has a rate cut dilemma. Go big or go smallReuters IPSOS poll: Harris 47%. Trump 42%US Treasury auctions off $58

We should continue to reduce gradually and as appropriate the degree of monetary restriction.ECB must be attentive to risk of undershooting target.Market inflation expectations well below the ECB forecasts.The latest activity data have been somewhat disappointing.Pace of easing has to be highly pragmatic, we keep our full optionality for the next meetings.The ECB must be

Monetary policy is now on a good trajectoryInflation is much less worrisome than when ECB first started cutting rates in June”I am not per se against lowering rates, I only object when the timing does not look right”Headline inflation expected to rise temporarily in the coming months due to base effectsOctober might not be the

Will raise the retirement age for men to 63 – effective January 1, 2025.Will raise retirement age for white collar female workers to 58 – effective January 1, 2025.Will raise retirement age for blue collar female workers to 55 – effective January 1, 2025.From January 2030 the minimum period for employees to receive basic pension

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 43% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

The strike will begin at midnight Pacific Time or in just under two-and-a-half hours from now. Boeing’s US factory workers have rejected the company’s plea deal from earlier this week, which includes a 25% pay rise over four years. The union had previously targeted a 40% pay rise, so there is quite a discrepancy there.

Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television on the global bond market: sale of $39 billion 10-year US Treasury notes Wednesday had “massive indirect demand” “I can only reconcile it by the ton of cash that’s on the sideline, and the fear that if you don’t lock in interest rates now, you will lose interest income

We are not committed to any predetermined rate path.Inflation to be largely steered by core and services. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Reuters polling of 65 analysts. All 65 economists in a Reuters poll said the BoE will likely hold rates at 5.0% on September 19News on price pressures has been mixed. Wage growth cooled as members of the Monetary Policy Committee expected last month and the economy failed to grow in July. the BoE could announce

I posted earlier this week on Ftich analysts on the FOMC: Fitch says the coming Federal Reserve easing cycle will be mild and slow Fitch now on the Bank of Japan: BOJ “is bucking the global trend of policy easing and hiked rates more aggressively than we had anticipated in July. This reflects its growing

NZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). Still in contraction at 45.8 prior revised to 44 .4, from 44.0long term average is 52.6has been in contraction for 18 consecutive months BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: sub-index results for Production (46.3) and New Orders (46.8) were both the strongest they have been in a few

Eurostoxx +0.42%Germany DAX +0.27%France CAC 40 +0.29%UK FTSE +0.14%Spain IBEX +0.33%Italy FTSE MIB +0.14% The mood in the market remains broadly positive. ICYMI yesterday around 18:53 Central European Time, WSJ’s Timiraos came out with a piece which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50

ECB rate cuts are supportive of growthCurrent uncertainties emphasise the dependence on fresh data on the economyWill base decisions on assessment of inflation outlook, dynamics of core inflation, and also the strength of monetary policy transmission To sum up, he’s just saying that the ECB is on the right path in cutting rates. And that

There are venues for betting on the US election but this is seen as a big deal because IB has around 3 million customers. IB will open betting from Monday, September 16. bets on Trump or Harrisalso bets on swing-state Senate races Info via Wall Street Journal (gated) – In other political news, Trump has

The Financial Times has published a fascinating article about Gary Stevenson, a former Citibank trader who boldly claims to have been the best trader in the world. The piece, titled “Gary Stevenson claims to have been the best trader in the world. His old colleagues disagree”, is available to read in full without a paywall

After a sharp declines last week when they NASDAQ index fell by -5.77% and the S&P fell by -4.25%, each of those indices are up for four consecutive days this week. The NASDAQ index is now up 5.27%, while the S&P index as rebounded by 3.46% this week. Looking at the major indices today: Dow

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6740 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance though, so there might not be much in it. But if anything else, the expiries could keep price action locked in a little

China data this weekend: Will housing prices show signs of stabilization?Former New York Fed President Dudley sees a strong case for 50bp interest rate cutPricing for a 50bp FOMC rate cut has firmed in just a few hours, 41% nowChina’s 10 year government bond yield has fallen to a record low of 2.0775%Fitch are forecasting

Analysts at PIMCO have issued a note with what’s ahead for the US dollar as the US Federal Reserve begins it rate cut cycle. They highlight that since the 1990s, the dollar has typically weakened, albeit temporarily, following initial rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. And add that during previous cycles of monetary easing, whether

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period, which means no communication from Fed officials on their outlook for monetary policy. Going into the blackout Fed officials very much played won anything other than 25bp. And now this, the probability of a 50bp hik has surged. Its not unusual for ‘leaks’ to come though, if

Expects to reach inflation goal at the end of next year Just some token remarks there by Nagel. It just reaffirms the path that the ECB is on at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Dudley was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from January 27, 2009, through to 2018. He also served as the vice chairman and was a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). “I think there’s a strong case for 50, whether they’re going to do it

I posted earlier on the data coming from China this weekend: Critical data coming for AUD/USD … this weekend! (Spoiler – China data) All of the three major indicators are expected to show slower growth than they did in July. Via ING, more: We are generally looking for another month of sluggish growth data this

Updating USD/JPY in the abscense of any news nor data out of Japan. Just continued JPY volatility (buying really!). We visited under 141.00 eaeleir this week on BoJ comments: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This via Deutsche Bank was ahead of the rate cut (a precap?), that admittedly everyone was expecting. What makes this ECB rate cut cycle unusual is that it’s happening against the backdrop of fairly buoyant equity markets. this is the first time since 1960 that ECB or Bundesbank rate cuts have started when the DAX

Nick Timiraos at the Journal (gated) writes on the Federal Reserve questioning if it should cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point at next week’s meeting. Says: Powell kept all his options openFed nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too longfirmer housing costs in the consumer-price index

Goldman Sachs expect the Bank of England to move to consecutive cuts starting at the November meeting GS expect a terminall rate of 3% Goldman analysts cite: UK wage growth to slow down – “While the level of pay growth remains high, the sequential pace of pay rises has slowed and important forward-looking indicators have

The EURUSD is running to a new high for the day up to 1.10597. That has now taken the price of the pair above its 200-hour MA at 1.10563. Traders will be looking for more upside momentum on the break. The price is also moving away from the 100-hour MA AND the broken 38.2% of

The price of gold has been trading between $2471 and $2531 since August 16. There have been a number of different times the price low has been tested and a number different times the price high has been tested. Today, however, the price made a break for it above the topside swing area and we

Underscoring some analysts view that the US economy will not go in to a prolonged recession and may continue to have the soft landing. The Federal Reserve is reporting that US household net worth rose to a record $163.8 trillion in Q2 2024. Stock market values rose by $0.7 trillion in Q2Real estate values rose

The USDCAD is finding buyers against its rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.35756 (see rising blue line on the chart below). Stay above that moving average will keep the buyers more in control. Also in play is a 200 day moving average at 1.35889. On the topside, there is work to do to

Headlines: Euro remains boxed in ahead of the ECB laterGold Technical Analysis – Can’t get out of this rangeWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ’s Tamura says pace of rate hikes is likely to be slowBOJ’s Tamura: Cannot say whether we could raise rates by year-endSpain August final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelimChina reportedly to

The US treasury auctioned off $58 billion of the 30 year bonds. High yield: 4.015% Previous 4.314%six-month average 4.460% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.001% Tail: 1.4 bps Previous: 3.1 basis points6-month average: 0.3 basis points Bid to Cover: 2.38X Previous: 2.31X6-month average: 2.39X Dealers: 15.7% Previous: 19.2%6-month average: 15.9% Directs: 15.7%

The data shows that real median rental costs increased by 3.8% last year while real median home values rose by 1.8%, via data released as part of the American Community Survey. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau data itself shows that renter households spent 31.0% of their income on housing costs at the median last year. And

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The shelter component re-accelerated and that’s something to keep an eye on given the imminent rate cut cycle as we might get a reacceleration

The major European indices are closing higher in the day led by Spain’s Ibex which is higher by 1.08% today: German DAX, +0.97%France’s CAC +0.52%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.57%Spain’s Ibex +1.08%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.84% As London/European traders head for the exits, US indices are mixed: The Dow industrial average is down -42.3 points or -0.10% and

A Reuters/IPSOS poll after the debate shows: Harris 47% . Trump 42%Among registered voters who heard at least something about Tuesday’s presidential debate, 53% said Harris won, while 24% said Trump wonAsked which of the two stumbled and it didn’t appear sharp, Trump was the pick of 52% percent of voters familiar with the debate

The WSJ Timiraos is out with an analysis of the upcoming Fed rate decision. The title of the article says it all with the author calling the decision a dilemma. That is does the Fed go big or small (or by 25 basis points or 50 basis points). Some of the highlights; Fed set to

Yesterday, the USDCHF moved above its 100 hour moving average, eight 200 hour moving average, and its 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart. All those breaks help the pair move up toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid August high. That level came in at 0.85172. Initially, sellers

The Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations for Australia shows a drop to 4.4% in September prior 4.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia target band is 2 to 3% for inflation. Expectations are well above official CPI rates (quarterly and monthly) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB sources via Bloomberg reports: Given the downside risk in economic growth in the EU, ECB officials are keeping the door open for a cut at the October meeting Reuters is now reporting: Policymakers see an interest rate cut in October as unlikely, unless there’s a major downturn in growth The ECB cut borrowing costs

The European Central Bank meet on Thursday, September 12. A rate cut is widely expected. I posted a preview here earlier this week: ECB eyes rate cut amid weakening outlook – preview of the September 12 meeting The announcement is coming up at 1215 GMT, 0815 US Eastern time with the presser following a half

A former Reserve Bank of Australia Governor, Bernie Fraser, says the current RBA board is excessively focused on inflation: Fraser says the Board should cut the cash rateFraser cited looming “recessionary risks”, that would be devastating for the jobs market — Fraser was Governor from September 1989 to September 1996. Fraser (arrow points to him)

📊 Sector Overview The US stock market showcased a mixed bag today, with a notable divergence across sectors. A close look reveals that communication services led the charge with robust performances, while the semiconductor sector struggled amid widespread declines. Semiconductors: Major names like Nvidia (NVDA) slipped by 0.85% and AMD by 0.91%, reflecting cautious sentiment.

The major US stock indices are trading modestly higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average is up 32.49 points or 0.08% at 40894.20S&P index is up 1.49 points or 0.03% at 5555.62NASDAQ index is up 30 points or 0.10% at 17425 The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 11.22 points or

The August US budget deficit data was released early. It was expected later this afternoon. US August 2024 budget deficit $-380 billion versus $-317.3 billion estimateAugust 2023 surplus was $89 billionFiscal 2024 year-to-date deficit $1.897 trillion versus comparable fiscal 2023 of $1.525 billion deficit.US August budget outlays $687 billion versus $194 billion in August 2023.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior month 2.2% YoY. Revised to 2.1%PPI final demand YoY 1.7% vs 1.8% estimatePPI final demand MoM 0.2% vs 0.1% estimate. Prior 0.1% revised to 0.0%PPI Ex food and energy YoY 2.4% vs 2.5% estimate. Prior 2.4% revised to 2.3%PPI Ex food and energy MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate. Prior 0.00% revised to -0.2%PPI food

The IEA kept their forecasts for global oil demand broadly unchanged, seen at 900k bpd this year and 950k bpd for next year. That said, these numbers are way more pessimistic than other forecasters. That especially when you compare to OPEC, as seen here, even with their latest adjustments lower. In keeping with their forecast,

18 July12 September 2024 The Governing Council today decided to keeplower the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information broadly supportsdeposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s previousupdated assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. While some

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the North American session begins. Having said that, the major currencies are also scrunched together. Low to high trading ranges are relatively narrow with the EURUSD only having a 18 pips trading range, the USDCAD only 20 pips and the GBPUSD only 29

To watch the Press conference live, click above. The Full statement: The Governing Council today decided to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and

In FX, the changes are light overall with dollar pairs keeping in relatively narrow ranges thus far today. The euro is in focus amid the ECB later but there shouldn’t be any real surprises from the decision itself. EUR/USD is trapped today in a 17 pips range and understandably so. The pair has very large

German DAX futures +1.0%UK FTSE futures +1.1% European indices observed a mixed close yesterday but are now having to play catch up a little to the gains in Wall Street. Tech shares were the ones leading the charge yesterday, so the gains might not be too prominent in Europe as a whole. But US futures

The EURUSD is trading at 1.1026 as the press conference begins. The high for the day has reached 1.1032 after the decision. The 100 hour MA looms above at 1.10416 Headlines from commentary: Recovery is facing headwindsExpect the recovery to strengthen.Fading monetary policy restrictions should support economy.Labor market remains resilient.Surveys point to further moderation and

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.50% vs 3.50% expectedPrior 3.75%Main refinancing rate 3.65% vs 3.65% expectedPrior 4.25%Marginal lending facility 3.90%Prior 4.50%It is now appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restrictionRecent inflation data have come in broadly as expectedInflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The shelter component re-accelerated and that’s something to keep an eye on given the imminent rate cut cycle. The data triggered a repricing

The US PPI data was more or less as expected. It did not change any projections for Fed policy decision next week which is centered on a 25 basis point cut. Nevertheless, the USDJPY has been moving back to the downside. Helping the bias is the inability to stay above its 100-hour moving average at

The dollar held its ground after the US CPI report yesterday here. It was a bit of a mixed one with some emphasis on the monthly core rising. But again, it just serves to rebuff expectations for a 25 bps rate cut next week. That rather than a 50 bps move and market players had

In the kickstart video for September 12, I take a look at three the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The USD is lower after they PPI data and the ECB rate decision to cut interest rates. All was much as expected so the changes are fairly modest.

When markets are quite fragile, need to set a period to ensure it markets cool downBig and rapid market volatility is undesirableUpside risk to inflation has subsided somewhat when compared to USD/JPY being at 160A weak yen is being reversed somewhatBut rise in import costs seen earlier this year will affect inflation with a lag

Major US stock indices had a snapback day, and what a snapback day it was. The Dow industrial average was lower by 743.89 points, but is closing up 124.75 points or 0.31% at 40861.71. At one point today all the Dow stocks were trading lower.The S&P was down -88.56 points but is closing higher by

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The data triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just a 13% probability of a 50 bps cut

Prior month -13.9% revised to -13.0%Building permits 22.1% vs +7.1% estimate Building permits can swing back and forth. It is hard to make judgments when the changes are double digit one way and the other. The good news is that there does need to be more housing in Canada (Adam harps on that). So the

Dow industrial average futures implying a gain of 28.25S&P futures implying a gain of +3.62 pointsNASDAQ futures implying a decline of -12.1 points. Yesterday the NASDAQ index led the gains with a rise of 2.17%. The S&P index rose 1.07%. Looking at the US debt market, yields are up by about 1 to 2 basis

There are quite a number to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered from 1.1000 through to 1.1050. That sort of keeps a lock on things until we get to the ECB later at least. That especially the extremely large one at the 1.1000 level,

Prior 227K; revised to 228K4-week moving average 231KPrior 230KContinuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expectedPrior 1.838M; revised to 1.845M The headline figure continues to keep somewhat steady but at least down from the high of 250K last month. Continuing claims rose slightly in the latest report but the 4-week moving average there continues to point lower

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 103 bps (87% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 64 bps (100% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today’s meeting) BoE: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 57 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

The GBPUSD moved lower after the US CPI data, and in the process broke below its 38.2% retracement of the August trading range at 1.30363. The next target was at the 1.3000 level followed by the rising 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.2971. The price only got to the 1.3000 level

Eurostoxx +1.2%Germany DAX +1.1%France CAC 40 +1.0%UK FTSE +1.1%Spain IBEX +1.1%Italy FTSE MIB +1.0% This comes with US futures also sitting higher on the day, with S&P 500 future up 0.2% currently. After a bit of a setback so far in September, the bounce today is most welcome for European indices. But we’ll see if

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The data triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just a 13% probability of a 50 bps cut

-0.2% m/m for a miss expected 0.0%, prior 0.3% 2.5% y/y, also a miss expected 2.8%, prior 3.0% Falling m/m wholesale inflation and lower than previous y/y. The rising yen may well have played a role in these results – check out the graph on the right, the import index. At the margin these data

This is different from what majority of economists are expecting, that to be just one more rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs now sees back-to-back moves for the BOE in November and then December. The firm had previously forecast one more rate cut in the final quarter for this year. I’m waiting to see if

US firms optimism in China has fallen to its lowest level everJPMorgan still expects a 50bp Federal Reserve interest rate cut next weekJapan wholesale inflation dipped due to lower commodity prices and a stronger yen – recap250bp of “shock and awe” rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve does not seem warrantedAustralia inflation expectations are

Prior +2.8%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% Core annual inflation is seen easing slightly again to 2.7% at least. That is down from 2.8% in July but still not quite there yet in terms of solidifying a base closer towards the 2% mark. It’s a slow grind and not just for Spain but most

Snapback day. Major indices close higher after trading sharply lower earlier in the day.Crude oil futures settled at $67.31Fed IG said Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostick violated Fed rules on tradingUS 30 year mortgage rates lowest in 20 months at 6.11%The US treasury auctions of $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of

Reuters poll: Three out of 10 firms see rate hike to 0.5% affecting fundraising plansJapan firms want next PM to tackle rising prices, fiscal reform (The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is set to hold an election on September 27 to pick its next leader who will become the prime minister) USD/JPY update, ticking a little

Today is going to be the busiest day of the week in terms of risk events on the agenda. The highlights include the ECB Rate Decision, the US Jobless Claims and the US PPI. 12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – ECB Policy Decision The ECB is expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate

No preset idea on the pace of further rate hikesBut unlike US and Europe, rate hikes are likely to be slow for JapanExact timing on when rates can reach 1% will depend on economic, price conditions at the timeData so far shows economy moving in line with forecast from July meeting Tamura earlier called to

This is mainly to further reduce borrowing costs and to try and bolster consumption activity. Domestic demand conditions in China have suffered greatly ever since the Covid pandemic and there hasn’t been much of a revival in that area despite the world returning back to normal. The report says that some banks are already making

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Citi cited concerns over economic growth: Moving underweight equities as growth dims furtherEconomic growth indicators continue to declineHard-landing fears have set-off rising cross-asset volatilityInflation moves back to long-term targetsOur model moves slightly short equities from max-long and overweight commodities (ex energy) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Info via Bloomberg of jumbo-sized interest rate cuts to come from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Citi were expecting a 50bp Fed Funds cut on September 18 but after the CPI data on Wednesday trimmed that back to now forecasting a 25bp rate cut: maintain their projection for 125bp of rate cuts by year

I posted earlier on Citi dropping its call for a 50bp rate cut next week to 25 bp. Analysts there do expect 50bp in November and December though: Citi are forecasting two 50bp interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve JP Morgan are sticking to its forecast for a 50bp rate cut next week

Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. — Card spending Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. This article was written

None of these releases are likely to shove major FX rates around too much upon release. JPY will swing around regardless, its what it does. Yesterday we had a BoJ official driving yen buying: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments While it isn’t shown on the schedule

Fed IG releases a report on 11 Fed Pres. Bostick and his financial disclosure: Says Bostick violated federal rules on tradingBostick created appearance of acting on confidential informationBostick created appearance of a conflict of interestThe report didn’t find evidence that Bostick traded on confidential information This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura delivers a speech. Japan’s neutral rate is likely to be around 1% at the minimumthe path towards ending easy policy is still very longWill carefully examine the pros and cons of exiting easy policy Must push up short-term rates at least to around 1% by latter half of

UK Incomes Data Research survey of wage growth: median pay settlement awarded by major employers dropped to 4.0% in the three months to July, the lowest since August 2022 and down from 4.8% in the three months to June Subdued wage growth, if a 4& quarterly gain can be so described, keeps the Bank of

This was out earlier, posting here for interest. Political tensions, China’s slowing economic growth, poor domestic demand, deflation, and fierce domestic competition are the backdrop to the results of this survey, Only 47% of US firms optimistic on 5-year outlook US firms profitable in China down to 66% in 2023 Geopolitical tension rated as biggest

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Raphael Bostic is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. A report by the Federal Reserve’s Office of Inspector General has raised suspicions of Bostic’s trading: Bostic “created an ‘appearance of acting on confidential FOMC information’ ‘appearance of a conflict of interest’ that could cause a reasonable person to question his impartiality”breached the FOMC’s

Crude oil prices have been very volatile today with the price first moving higher to a high of $67.58, then moving lower to a low at $65.63 before rotating back to the upside and making new high price up to $67.97. The high price today got within $0.16 of the falling 100 hour moving average

Westpac point out that while major downward revisions to US payrolls estimates have injected a little more urgency into the US situation over the last month, the pricing in of close to 250bps in cuts by this time next year in extreme: that sort of ‘shock and awe’ easing does not seem warranted WPAC is

Japanese ‘wholesale’ inflation levels eased back a little in August: Japan PPI (August) -0.2% m/m (expected +0.0%) and +2.5% y/y (expected +2.8%) The main drivers were lower commodity prices, falling utility prices, and the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Details showed that import prices dropped significantly falling to 2.6% YoY from 10.8% in July While

Earlier this week Arno had the intitial round of numbers showing slipping China car sales: China August passenger car sales down 1.1% y/y to 1.92 mln CPCA reports Follow-up numbers from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAA) were released on Wednesday. These were ven worse, showing that car sales in August dropped by 5.0%

Close to 40% of Gulf of Mexico oil production is shut due to Hurricane Francine. The storm is a category 1 with when so 90 mph and looking to make landfall on the Louisiana coast. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kim Jong Un grabbing the headlines again This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has moved higher today and in the process, has stretched toward the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August swing high. That retracement level comes in at 0.8517, and that is where sellers started to lean against of earlier today and on the most recent hourly bar. Getting above that level would

Japan Business Survey Index for Q3 2024: 4.5% prior -1.0% Earlier data: Japan PPI (August) -0.2% m/m (expected +0.0%) and +2.5% y/y (expected +2.8%) — Japan’s Quarterly Business Survey Index (BSI) measures the sentiment of business executives regarding the economic conditions in their industries. It is compiled by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office

NZD little changed — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealandthe FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items that represent the typical spending patterns of New Zealand

Data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICs) in the UK, its house price balance (this measures the difference between surveyors seeing falls and rises in house prices) for August 2024. Came in at +1, the strongest since January 2020 expected -14prior -18 GBP is little changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

ICYMI, Greg had the details earlier: Goldman Sachs Solomon on CNBC. Sees 2 maybe 3 cuts. Could see possibility of 50 BP cut Soloman said that while there is a case to be made for a 50bp cut, citing more softening in the labor market, he puts the probability of such a cut “in the

The NASDAQ index fell -238.04 point at session lows today. It is now flipped that decline and transact 244.18 points or up 1.43% at 17269.. That is quite a reversal The move back to the upside has taken the price back above its 100- day moving average at 17158.57 (blue line on the chart above).

Major US stock indices have extended the declines to the downside with the S&P index down -1.3%. The NASDAQ index is down -0.85% and the Dow industrial average is down -1.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also lower with a decline of -1.40%. US yields have moved back higher with the two year now down

The AUDUSD moved lower after the stronger core CPI data. On the break lower, the price moved below a cluster of technical levels including the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6653, the 100-day moving average of 0.6648, and the 38.2% retracement at 0.66422. That opened the door for further downward momentum,

Sector Overview The US stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable movements across various sectors. The technology sector showed bright spots, notably with Nvidia (NVDA) rising by an impressive 1.50%, highlighting investor confidence in semiconductors. Similarly, AMD (AMD) boosted the sector’s performance with a climb of 1.49%. Conversely, the automotive sector faced challenges,

There is a report that the US is closer to allowing Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia. Nvidia shares are trading up $4.72 or 4.3% at $112.80. Moreover shares are back above its 100 day moving average at $111.57. Shares of SMC are also rebounding strongly today with a gain of $20.85 or 5.02% to $432.96.

High Yield: 3.648% Previous: 3.96% Six-auction average: 4.314% WI level at the time of the Auction: 3.662% Tail: -1.4 basis points Previous: 3.1bps Six-auction average: 0.8bps Bid-to-Cover: 2.64X Previous: 2.32x Six-auction average: 2.48x Dealers: 10.25% Previous: 17.9% Six-auction average: 16.3% Directs: 13.7% Previous: 16.0% Six-auction average: 17.0% Indirects: 76.1% Previous: 66.2% Six-auction average: 66.7% AUCTION

The European indices are closing with mixed results for September 11. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.34%France’s CAC, -0.14%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.15%Spain’s Ibex +0.67%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.12% As London/European traders look to exit, the Dow leads the decline. The NASDAQ is now marginally higher in up and down trading. Dow industrial

Prior +1.6%Market index 233.7 vs 230.5 priorPurchase index 138.6 vs 136.1 priorRefinance index 757.8 vs 751.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.29% vs 6.43% prior The average rate of the most popular US home loan dips further to its lowest since February last year. That comes amid a further drop in rates overall and that is helping

The US treasury will auction off $39 billion a 10 year notes at the top of the hour. Recall from last month this auction was not all that great with a tail of 3.1 basis points and a bid to cover below the six-month average. Yesterday, the 3-year note auction was solid (I gave it

Fundamental Overview The Yen is having another good week as the USDJPY pair dropped to new lows as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the

US mortgage rates have moved to their lowest level in 20 months. The rate today moved to 6.11%. That is down from a high of 7.8% back on October 25, 2023. Today the weekly mortgage data was reported with the 30 year mortgage rate at 6.29% for the week. When applications rose 1.4% with the

The weekly oil inventories data shows: Crude oil 0.833M vs 0.987M estimateGasoline + 2.310M vs -0.109M estimateDistilates 2.308M vs 0.313M estimate Other details: Cushing -1.704M vs -1.142M last weekrefining utilization w/e -0.5% versus expected -0.7%.Crude production 13.3M vs 13.3M previous week Crude oil was trading at $66.69 just before the release. The price is currently

Harris vs. Trump Begins with Vice President Harris walking over to Trump (he does not walk over to her) and shakes his hand. I’ll post anything interesting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.2% Wall Street saw a mixed session with tech shares outperforming yesterday. But the mood music is all around softer today, as bonds are staying further bid. 10-year Treasury yields are down 2.5 bps to 3.62%, its lowest since June last year. S&P 500 futures

Citigroup now sees a 25 basis point rate cut in September down from 50 basis points prior to the CPI (and post the US jobs report last Friday). The CPI data did not do it. Although their expectations for September have been tempered, they still expect 50 basis point cuts in November and December. This

The US CPI data came in a little bit stronger-than-expected especially from the core inflation perspective. Shelter was to blame for most of the upside. Energy prices fell and are expected to fall further in the current month. US yields moved up by are coming off the high levels. The US dollar also moved higher

Headlines: Yields fall reverberates to broader markets to start the dayUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Expectations for a 50 bps cut remain aliveWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?BOJ’s Nakagawa: Hard to comment on timing of next rate hikeFed to cut rates by 25 bps at each of the remaining three policy meetings

A Reuters poll is out and the survey of 65 economist show: 49 of 65 see one more cut between now and year-end. 16 of 65 see 2 rate cutsUK inflation to average 2.6% in 2024inflation to average 2.3% in 2025 (same as August poll). For this month, the expectations is that the central bank

Goldman CEO David Solomon on CNBC says: Environment is actually okay for bank activitythere are places where it’s exhilaratingthe economy is still in great shapeThe likely scenario is that the Fed navigates with a soft landingCOnsumer is still healthy especially in the service sector.I found the CEO sect at consumer seminar is quite positive on

We’re already starting to see some notable market moves on the day ahead of European trading. I would argue the main culprit to be the bond market, after the move there yesterday. 10-year Treasury yields fell below the threshold of what might’ve resembled a short-term bottom around 3.67%. And that is continuing today, with yields

The bulls have been huffing and puffing over the last three weeks but they haven’t blown open the door for a stronger technical breakout yet. Gold price action has been consolidating in a bit of a range recently and the next trade is to arguably go with the break that comes. I’ll continue to point

Markets remain unstable and likely to stay that way for nowNeed to look at what is behind such volatility in marketsJapan economic progress is on track based on recent data as set out in JulyImportant to look at how economy, prices react to changes in short-term rates She is making sure that markets know about

Chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, says the country is definitely in deflation, probably going through the second stage of deflation. “Experience from Japan suggests that the longer deflation drags on, the more stimulus China will eventually need to break the debt-deflation challenge.” Xing citing falling wages. Earlier this week the CPI report

Taylor Swift IG post endorsing Harris ( the sign off is funny) Apologies for all the politics folks. Hopefully we can ignore it now for a few more weeks at least This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD trended higher in August taking the price from a low on August 8 of 1.26649 to a high of 1.32659 on August 28. Since then the price has wandered to the downside with fits of bounces along the way. On Friday, the price spiked back up to 1.32377 after the US jobs report

The US stocks are continuing their decline with the Dow now down 700 points or 1.70%. All the Dow 30 stocks are lower. The S&P index is down -88 points or -1.60% at 5408.87. That is getting closer to this 100 day moving average of 5391.77. The price move below its 100 day moving average

A snapshot of the markets are showing declines across the board. After 25 minutes of trading, Dow industrial average is down -45 to .31 points or -1.11% at 40284.65.S&P index is down -37.49 points or -0.68% at 5458.03.NASDAQ index is down -29.17 points or -0.17% at 16996.71. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -16.19 points

The USDCAD has traded down and back up today. The low price earliers today, moved below the 200-day MA at 1.3589 which was a tilt back to the downside after trading above that level yesterday. However, the price moved back higher in the European session and moved higher after the CPI data today. That move

We’ve had basically zero of substance on economic policies. There was some blather (from both) about tariffs introduced by Trump during his term, and not removed during the Biden admin. But that was about it. No detail. FX not doing much. USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Based on betting markets Harris has won the debate. Screenshot via Bloomberg: Harris wants to do it all again, unsurprisingly. In October. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% It’s a mixed start to the day as risk sentiment is nudging back and forth a little. S&P 500 futures are now down just 0.2% from around 0.5% earlier as well. But bond yields are holding lower, so that is keeping

I moved from New Jersey in August 2001 to Arizona. My work in NY at the time of the move took me to the WTC each day on my commute. My work office was 2 blocks north of the WTC complex. Part of the WTC complex fell into the buildings just south of our building.

The day after the presidential debate in the US, Russia’s Putin is getting his shot in by saying maybe Russia should think about export restrictions like uranium, titanium, and nickel important commodities exported from Russia. Trump said that he would solve the Ukraine- Russia conflict before he took office in January if elected. Harris said

The bond market is in the driver’s seat and traders don’t seem to want to wait around for the Fed next week. 10-year Treasury yields have now dropped to its lowest since June last year and 2-year yields are threatening an even bigger level on the charts now: Things are certainly heating up on the

Prior month 2.9%CPI MoM 0.2% versus 0.2% expectedMonth over Month unrounded 0.187% Core measures: Core CPI YoY 3.2% vs 3.2% expected.Core CPI MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% expectedCore unrounded 0.281%real weekly earnings +0.5% versus -0.2% last monthshelter inflation rose by 0.5%food increase by 0.1% after rising 0.2% in JulytHE index for food away from home rose

The US yields are trading at new session lows. The two-year is trading at 3.598%. That’s the lowest level going back to March 2023. The 10 year yield is an 3.642%. That’s its lowest level going back to June 2023. The low in yields has the USDJPY also extending back toward session lows for the

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the markets on the release, but

Nikkei with the info: Honda Motor will reduce the number of employees at its joint venture with Chinese automaker Dongfeng Motor Group focusing in particular on workers at its three factories that produce gasoline-powered cars. And, via Bloomberg: Honda will suspend production at 3 plants for 2 weeksInventory adjustment This article was written by Eamonn

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa spoke earlier here: BOJ’s Nakagawa speaks on one-sided yen falls He has sent the yen higher. USD/JPY dropped down towards 141.50 and has since bounced back towards 142.00. Nakagawa said, amongst much lease: real interest rates remain deeply negative, accommodative monetary conditions maintainedBOJ likely to adjust degree

The European session is once again empty and all the focus will be on the US CPI report in the American session. Inflation data is now less important than the labour market and growth data, but it could still have a say in the market’s pricing, especially for the next week’s FOMC decision. 12:30 GMT/08:30

Treasuries are keeping strongly bid so far this week and we’re seeing some key levels being challenged. 10-year yields are down to their lowest since June last year, down to 3.61% currently. Meanwhile, 2-year yields are down to their lowest in almost two years as it falls by nearly 5 bps today to 3.56% now:

The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is lower ahead of the US CPI data. Stocks (in premarket trading) and bond yields are also lower to start the US session. The consensus on the headline number is +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y. The

For August, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations are for a Headlined CPI 0.2% month-over-month (M/M) change (previously 0.2%), Annual headline CPI rate expected to ease to 2.6% year-over-year (Y/Y) from 2.9%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is also expected to rise -0.2% M/M (previously 0.2%), The annual core CPI rate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

92 of 101 economists expect a 25 bps rate cut next week65 of 95 economists expect three 25 bps rate cuts for the remainder of the year54 of 71 economists believe that the Fed cutting by 50 bps at any of the meetings as ‘unlikely’ On the final point, five other economists believe that a

Prior 0.0%Services +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -0.1%Industrial output -0.8% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior +0.8%Manufacturing output -1.0% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +1.1%Construction output -0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expectedPrior +0.5% The readings above are all a miss on estimates, as the UK economy stagnated in the month of July. Looking at the breakdown, services contributed 0.11%

In the long-running battle between stocks and bonds, the latter is usually right when it comes to the economy. Given that oil and the yen are also flagging trouble, the signs are hard to ignore. In early August, when US yields fell, it looked like a reaction to a flight-to-safety as some air came out

Goldman Sachs says that the US stock market may fall by the end of the year, citing the drag from: high valuations mixed growth prospects policy uncertainty But, say analysts, the probability of a bear market is low given the support for the economy from a healthy private sector. Also, support from Federal Open Market

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, the Russell 2000 sold off following the weaker than expected NFP report even though the details were better than the prior month. The technical break below the key support around the 2120 level eventually increased the bearish momentum. The market has become very sensitive to soft growth and labour market data.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Posting this as a bit of a catch-up, it seems to have gotten lost somewhere. Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company Saudi Aramco cut prices to Asia, Europe and the US. October pricing for Arab Light crude oil to Asia cut by 70cents / barrel Saudi Aramco also lowered the price of Arab Light to Northwest

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the markets on the release, but

Harris’ performance is being judged favourably my markets: US yields dripping lowerEUR higher Two caveats: we are only half way thoughothers may have a different take This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

OPEC’s monthly oil market report was published on September 10. The cartel slahsed demand estimates again. oil demand will grow by 2 million b/d in 2024this is down 80,000 b/d from the forecast in Augustfor 2025, demand will rise a further 1.7 million b/d, a 40,000 b/d downward revision OPEC has lowered its “call on

The pricing there is reflected in the fall in bond yields this week, with 10-year Treasury yields now hitting its lowest since June last year. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut next week now stands at ~35%, up from around ~25% early Monday. It’s still down from the near coin flip odds prior

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. Again, if anything else, it will help to act as a bit of a floor to price action before rolling off later in the day. That said, just be wary that

Analysts at MUFG say that it will be important that the data remain consistent with slowing inflation to support current Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations. What arguing that one month of stronger inflation data in August would not stop the Fed from cutting rates next week, they say that such a result would cast

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia is speaking at an investment bank, Barrenjoey, event here in Australia. As part of the panel Hunter is speaking on Barrenjoey says its research shows a ‘reasonable’ amount of the government’s stage 3 tax cuts are being saved, not spent. It was feared that

US politics – Taylor Swift says she will be voting for HarrisUS Vice President Harris’ campaign is pushing for a second debate with TrumpBank of Japan Nakagawa says ready to raise rates if inflation on track – recapHalf way through the debate and US Treasuries are rallying. EUR higher alsoUSD/JPY has dropped under 142.00 on

We have Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia speaking today. I’ve added it to the screenshot below, and I posted a little on what to listen out for earlier: AUD traders heads up – RBA (Hunter) speaking on Wednesday After Hunter the calendar gets very bleak … why do I

BOC’s Macklem: Bigger cuts are possile if economy and CPI weakerMacklem Q&A: Employment is not negative but is well below population growthBOC’s Macklem: Trade disruptions may mean larger deviations from our targetBank of Japan officials see little need to hike ratesUS Treasury auctions $58B of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.440%Fed’s Barr

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia spoke earlier: RBA’s Hunter says the Australian labour market is still tight relative to full employment Q&A now (part of a panel discussion): Australia’s economy heading into turning pointTurning points are inherently challenging and difficultHouseholds are certainly being squeezed This article was written by

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa: One-sided yen falls subsided somewhat but rising import prices could affect consumer inflation with a lag Prolonged inflation overseas could put upward pressure on Japan’s import prices Must be mindful of impact of overseas, domestic market moves on Japan’s inflation Japan’s exports, output likely to resume uptrend

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Wall Street Journal Fed watcher Nick Timiraos collated the forecasts. Very handy indeed: Previews: US CPI preview: Inflation expected to fall to the lowest since 2021MUFG expect a higher US dollar if CPI shows an unexpected rise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The broader stock indices closed higher for the second consecutive day this week. The gains were led by the Nasdaq index which tumbled -5.77% last week. After 2-days this week, the index is up 2.01%. The S&P which fell -4.25% last week, is up 1.61% after Monday and Tuesday. The Dow industrial average fell today

As inflation in the US ramped and then rolled over, it was typical to get massive market moves on CPI data but as prices have cooled, so has the market reaction. Unfortunately, the magic is gone — and now rests with non-farm payrolls as the Fed focuses on its employment mandate — but it’s still

Adam posted on this during the US session: Bank of Japan officials see little need to hike rates The report comes via Bloomberg (gated) who say: Bank of Japan officials see little need to raise the benchmark rate when board members gather next weekthey’re still monitoring lingering volatility in financial markets and the impact of

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.0 mn barrelsDistillates +0.3 mn bblsGasoline -0.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Nakagawa is a member of the Bank of Japan monetary policy board. Nakagawa spoke earlier, clearly indicating the rate hikes are not done: BOJ’s Nakagawa speaks on one-sided yen fallsUSD/JPY has dropped under 142.00 on BOJ Nakagawa comments Main points, in summary: Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if inflation moves in

The Canadian dollar is the weakest performer today and if you read between the lines in Tiff Macklem’s comments, the Bank of Canada is trying to put the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in October on the table, particularly if upcoming GDP reports highlight ongoing weakness. A big reason that they need to

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia Labour market still tight relative to full employment Labour market has moved towards better balance since late 2022 Easing in labour market similar to past mild downturns Some slowing in labour demand to occur via drop in average hours Expect employment to continue to

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey: September manufacturers sentiment +4, August was +10September non-manufacturers sentiment +23 vs +24 in AugustDecember manufacturers index seen at +3, non-manufacturers at +27 Sentiment at non-manufacturers fell for the third consecutive month to its lowest in a year Business confidence at

On what to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): “The long-awaited Fed easing cycle is upon us, but the FOMC will be cautious after the inflation challenges of the past few years. The pace of rate cuts will be gentle and monetary easing won’t do much to boost growth next year”We expect 25bp

Dr. Copper hasn’t been in a good mood since May, when a speculative squeeze drove it to $5 followed by a sharp turn lower. It’s currently flirting with $4 as the market frets about a global growth slowdown. Given the price action in bonds, JPY and oil, I think a further slowdown is a material

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The first of 3 coupon auctions for the week will start today at 1 PM when the US treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3-year notes. The treasury will auction off 10-year notes tomorrow and 30-year bonds on Thursday. The note auction success (or failure) will be judged by the results vs the 6 month

High Yield:3.440% Previous: 3.81% WI Level at the time of the auction: 3.457% Tail: -1.7 bs Previous: -0.2bps Six-auction average: 0.1bps Bid-to-Cover: 2.66X Previous: 2.55x Six-auction average: 2.56x Dealers:10.45% Previous: 15.4% Six-auction average: 16.4% Directs (a measure of domestic demand):11.3% Previous: 20.3% Six-auction average: 18.8% Indirects (a measure of international demand):78.24% Previous: 64.4% Six-auction average:

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Prior +2.3%HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelimPrior +2.6% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.8% year-on-year in August, so there is still some work to do to get that down. But overall, this still will give the ECB some room to work with in arguing for a rate cut once every quarter. At least for

After a trend-like move like we saw to the upside in August, the price of the NZDUSD has been correcting lower over the last 9 or so trading days. The price action on Friday after the US jobs report saw a spike higher to swing area resistance at 0.6253, but then reversed lower, and fell

It wasn’t a pretty one for European stock markets today: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.9%Francis CAC -0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.7%Spain’s IBEX -0.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.0% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It is not too uncommon to see the ECB not hog the spotlight during policy decision weeks. But when it is accompanied by a change in rates, that is a bit uncommon. This week though will be one of those weeks, as the ECB has already well telegraphed a 25 bps rate cut for this

The Fed is in the blackout period but Barr is commenting on Basel capital rules for banks. Earlier this week it was reported that the rules will be watered down after donations lobbying from big banks. New Basel draft will revise all major areas of original plans following industry criticismFed will propose updating G-sib surcharge

The US economic calendar is bare today save for a three-year auction but China released import data earlier today and it showed growth of just 0.5% y/y compared to 2.0% expected. That’s a sharp slowdown from the +7.2% y/y rise in July. The global manufacturing cycle starts in China and orders for imports are based

WTI now has a $65 handle. It’s down 4% on the day or $2.75 to $65.96, which is the worst level since May 2023. It’s traded down here on a handful of days in 2023 but if it finishes here it would be the worst close since December 2021. Needless to day, it’s not a

In the kickstart video for September 10, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, the price action has been up-and-down with the low prices from the Asian and early US session testing the low price from last week

On the day: S&P 500 +1.2%Nasdaq Comp +1.1%DJIA +1.2%Russell 2000 +0.4%Toronto TSX Comp +1.1% These gains aren’t enough to recoup Friday’s losses and last week’s big decline but it’s a good start. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF moved above the 100 and 200 hour MAs yesterday tilting the short term bias to the upside. The modest upside momentum, took the price up toward the next target – the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (see higher blue line on the chart below). What happened? Sellers leaned against that MA

Bank of Japan officials see little need to raise the benchmark rate at the Sept 20 meeting, according to people familiar cited by Bloomberg. The report was out earlier and comes as no surprise given the market is pricing in virtually no chance of a move in Sept or October. “The bank needs to carefully

US equities are back to flat and the dollar and yen are broadly bid on rising risk aversion. The worst victim at the moment is oil, which is down $2.44 to $66.26 as the bulls throw in the towel after OPEC cut demand forecasts today. Bonds are bid despite a three-year sale today that will

Does not believe that private consumption has recovered strongly yetWill aim to achieve conditions where wages grow sustainably so can fully exit from deflation The leadership race should likely come down to a battle between Ishiba and current digital minister, Tara Kono. For some context, Kono also ran for the post back in 2021 but

Fed Governor Barr is expected to announce the new measures in a speech on September 10: Fed to halve biggest banks’ capital hike in latest Basel planFED, FDIC, OCC poised to unveil changes as soon as September 19Top banks face 9% increase in revised plan from 19% earlier Headlines come via Bloomberg — At 1400

Fundamental Overview The markets have been waiting for the US NFP to provide a clear signal for either a 25 or 50 bps cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but instead we got a mixed report with some better details under the hood. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and

The major US stock indices have seen a run lower over the last hour or so of trading. The move lower now has the Dow down around -400 points or 1%. It was up 134 points at session highs. The S&P is down -23.36 points or -0.42%. At highs the index was up 24.08 pointsThe

Chinese trade data is usually of interest. Expectations for the data today are for lower y/y result for both exports and imports. If exports come in as expected it’ll be the slowest growth in 4 months. There was a narrative about that exports would surge ahead of increased trade barriers, which has not turned out

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% UK stocks are the ones lagging as the labour market data affirms that at the balance, the BOE can keep policy steady next week. That despite wages continuing to cool, both in nominal and real terms. Anyway, equities are keeping more

The USDCAD is tilting higher technically even though a lot of the price action on Monday and agains today, is more up and down. WHat is encouraging for the buyers – at least in the short term – is the low prices yesterday, held support against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (see

The US stock market is buzzing today with impressive gains, particularly in the technology sector, as software and internet giants drive the rally. A closer inspection of the heatmap reveals interesting dynamics across various sectors. 📈 Technology Sector: Leading the Charge Microsoft (MSFT) is up by 0.69%, reflecting robust investor confidence in software infrastructure.Nvidia (NVDA)

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. If anything else, it will just act as a slight magnet or at most a floor for price action before rolling off in the session ahead. But given the

Today, the only notable event in the European session was the UK Labour Market report. The next notable data point will be the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index which is released a couple of hours before the start of the American session. 10:00 GMT/06:00 ET – US August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The

Businesses are hiring much more slowly than people are entering the work forceYouth unemployment has gone up a lotWe have very high rates of immigrationIf we were to see a rise in unemployment, that would be a concernIt’s reasonable to expect further rate cuts This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The street-low year-end forecast for the euro is 1.02 from Morgan Stanley. G10 FX strategist David Adams spoke in an interview with Bloomberg today highlighting the call. “There is plenty of scope for the market to refocus on the fact that the ECB could be cutting deeper and faster than what is currently priced,” said

The AUDUSD yesterday moved down to test a cluster of support defined by the 200 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart,100 day moving average, and the 38.2% retracement of the August trading range All those levels come between 0.6642 and 0.66499 (call it 0.6650). Getting below that level would have traders looking down

As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest . The USD is mostly, but modestly lower. Stocks are little changed after gains yesterday clawed back some of Friday’s declines. European shares are mixed/little changed. The US yields to start the US session are up by above

The Canadian housing market is struggling and the economy was flat in June and July. The market is fully priced for a 25 bps cut at the Oct 23 meeting with virtually no chance of 50 bps but that could swing with some softer data. For the subsequent meeting, there is 61 bps priced in,

The dollar has seen some steadier tones in the last few sessions but USD/JPY endured a bit more of a mix of fortunes. The pair was down on Friday as bond yields fell but rebounded in trading yesterday. The bounce is keeping up somewhat today, with the pair now up 0.2% to just above 143.50.

Headlines on this are here from earlier: The changes proposed for the Board of the RBA have failed Adding a little more detail, this via Reuters reporting: The reforms, which were recommended by an independent review last year, included setting up a separate governance board to complement the current monetary policy board. The nine-member rate-setting

As a reminder, the debate will take place later in the day at 9pm EDT (or 0100 GMT the next day). I shared some thoughts previously in this post here: Just a week to go until the next US presidential debate As with these things, it often comes down to how things are said rather

US major indices are mixed in early trading. The Dow industrial average is mostly lower, but the S&P and NASDAQ indices are higher. The Russell 2000 is also trading lower in the first few minutes of trading. A snapshot of the market seven minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average, -41.52 points or

New York Fed: 1 year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.0%.3-year up to 2.5% from 2.3%US wholesale sales +1.1% vs +0.2% expectedUS August employment trends 109.04 vs 109.61 priorCitigroup CFO Mason: Feels good about consumer and corporate balance sheetsAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 comes in at 2.5%Mark Carney will head Liberal advisory task forceUS

New Zealand manufacturing sales rose in second quarter: +0.6% q/q vs the -0.4% in Q1 NZD/USD little changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Two weeks ago Morgan Stanley lowered their Brent crude oil forecast to $80 / barrel. Now they’ve cut it even further: now expecting an average $75 a barrel in Q4 of 2024 Citing demand headwinds: “considerable demand weakness”signals are of “recession-like inventory builds” On supply: oil market to remain tight through Q3potential move into surplus

The key change for the Board of the RBA was the proposal to split the existing RBA board into separate groups for interest rate-setting and governance. The board split was supposed to come into effect on July 1 Australian Treasurer Chalmers was driving the proposed changes but has said he wanted bipartisan support. The measure

Trade disruptions also increase variability of inflationWe have to focus on risk management, balancing upside risks to inflation with downside risks to economic growthCost of global goods many not fall as fast as globalization, and that could put more upward pressure on inflationGlobal trade has slowed and that is a big concern for CanadaThe growth

Prior 4.2%Employment change 265k vs 123k expectedPrior 97kAverage weekly earnings +4.0% vs +4.1% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.5%; revised to +4.6%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.1% vs +5.1% 3m/yexpectedPrior +5.4%August payrolls change -59kPrior 24k; revised to -6k The jobless rate ticks a little lower with employment change beating estimates in July. However, payrolls for August declined further

Fundamental Overview The NFP report on Friday gave the USD a boost as the data under the hood was better than feared. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and they are now standing around 27%. A soft US CPI report tomorrow might increase those probabilities a little bit, but we

This erases the jump from the previous month and is the 32nd straight month that the index remains below its 50-year average of 98. Looking at the details, the most notable is a jump in the uncertainty index to 92 – up 2 points from July. That’s the highest reading since October 2020. It is

An interesting snippet from Deutsche Bank, expecting 25bp rate cuts ahead, but read on for the “however”. DB say that while Friday’s … payrolls report was disappointing: the data did not rise to the “significant deterioration” Waller noted was needed for larger (50bp) rate cuts. So our economists keep to their expectations for a 25bps

Fundamental Overview It’s been a brutal month for crude oil as renewed growth fears pushed the market into new lows. The negative supply news from Libya and Iraq, and the delay by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t help much to slow down the bearish momentum. The markets have been waiting for the US

Given Hunter’s role at the Reserve Bank of Australia I expect there will be comments of pertinence to traders. The RBA is focusing on bringing inflation back to target. The target band is 2-3% and 2.5% is the aim. The flip side of the mandate is to try to preserve as much of the gain

The ECB meets later this week, what to expect?US August NFIB small business optimism index 91.2 vs 93.7 priorIt’s debate night in the USA short-term bottom for USD/JPY?European equities open slightly lower to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures -0.3% in early European tradingUK July ILO unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.1%

Fundamental Overview The NFP report on Friday gave the USD a boost as the data under the hood was better than feared. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and they are now standing around 27%. A soft US CPI report tomorrow might increase those probabilities a little bit, but we

National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for August 2024 Business Confidence -4, lowest for the year so far prior +1 Business Conditions +3 prior +6conditions to the lowest in 2-1/2 yearsemployment index came in at +1, sharply down from +7 in July Inflation indicators: growth in labour costs quarterly rate of +1.7% (from July’s

Bloomberg (gated) carried info on the note from Morgan Stanley an initial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut of more than 25 basis points could support the yenwould fuel further pulling out of US assets by Japan, ie. “The yen carry-trade unwind may still be a risk factor behind the scenes”“A quick drop in US

Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell from August to September, to 84.6 prior 85.0 WPAC comment: “The pessimism that has dominated for over two years now is still showing no real signs of lifting””While cost-of-living pressures are becoming a little less intense and fears of further interest rate rises have eased, consumers are becoming

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The European Central Bank meet on Thursday, September 12. A rate cut is widely expected. inflation is nearing 2%, and longer-term forecasts stable around 2%the recent flow of data is showing the economic outlook weakening The meeting will bring updated European Central Bank macroeconomic forecasts downward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.4% It’s still early in the day but equities are cooling off after the better start to the week yesterday. S&P 500 futures are also down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.4% and Dow futures also down 0.2% currently. There won’t be much to shake things up in the

Eyes remain on the bond market this week as strengthening demand for safety runs into rising supply. The ability of the market to digest rates at the lowest levels of the year will be tested again this week with elections coming up over the next three days: Tuesday – $58 billion of 3sWednesday $39 billion

South Korea has designated October 1 as ‘Armed Forces Day’, and a temporary holiday. The move is intended to boost domestic consumption, and troop morale. Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) KOSDAQETF, derivatives markets and commodity markets will all be closed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CNBC refer to a note from Barclays. Analysts at the bank assert that the US jobs markets is “showing no sign of the rapid deterioration that would call for a 50bp Fed cut this month”. The forecast is for FOMC rate cuts of 25bp at the next three meetings: September 17 and 18November 6 and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

After the US jobs report last week, the big picture focus in markets is now on major central bank decisions. In particular, the Fed next week will be the most anticipated one. The odds for a 50 bps rate cut are now at ~29% and down from roughly a coin flip at one point last

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England leader Mark Carney is wading into politics. He’s been rumored to be circling Justin Trudeau’s Liberals for awhile and now he will chair a Liberal Party task force advising the government. He will advise on how to “develop and shape ideas for the next phase of Canada’s

The greenback held its ground somewhat on Friday last week as risk sentiment retreated. But as the latter recovered a little yesterday, the dollar also managed to squeeze in some gains to start the week. USD/JPY is back up above 143.00 as 10-year Treasury yields continue to stay afloat just above the 3.70% mark. That

In dollar terms, China saw exports grew at a pace of 8.7% year-on-year in August. That’s the quickest since March last year. However, imports remain depressing and that arguably owes to a continued poor state in terms of domestic demand. Anyway, here’s the breakdown for those interested (h/t @ Reuters): This article was written by

A snippet preview from ING on what to watch for the Chinese trade data due today: We are looking for trade growth to continue to slow on the month, and we are forecasting export growth of around 5% YoY and import growth of around 3% YoY for a trade balance of USD 74.9 bn. This

Bitcoin was looking ugly on Friday as it broke down to $52,500 but the dip buyers stepped up on the weekend and are continuing to buy today as the risk trade improves. The rally to $56,700 is nearly back to Friday’s high of $56,995 and that’s going to offer some resistance here. Zooming out, the

Big promises from one of the runners to be new Prime Minister: Kato: sees exit from deflation on horizonmust compile stimulus package backed by a bold supplementary budget at an early datestimulus package should include spending for reconstruction from the Noto earthquake and typhoonpackage should contain to prompt higher wage Kato talks of doubling wages.

AUD traders heads up – RBA (Hunter) speaking on WednesdaySouth Korean stock markets to close for a temporary holiday (October 1)Two items to watch in China’s trade balance data due soonAustralian August business confidence -4 vs. prior +1South Korea warn that rapid pick-up in household debt may turn into systemic risk.PBOC sets USD/ CNY central

Yuan-denominated exports +8.4% y/yYuan-denominated imports 0% y/yDollar-denominated exports +8.7% y/yDollar-denominated imports +0.5% y/y This compares to the July figures here. Looking to the specifics, China recorded a $33.8 billion surplus with the US for the month of August. As for year-to-date, that figure stands at $224.6 billion. Meanwhile, steel products exports were seen at 9.5

Info via Reuters: South Korea’s financial watchdog chief on Tuesday expressed concern about a rapid pick-up in household debt and said such financial imbalance may turn into systemic risk. “There are concerns that it may turn into a systemic risk, as financial imbalances accumulate and soundness deteriorates should home prices undergo correction” South Korea has

Analysts at BCA are expecting a recession for Europe early in 2025: “Our conviction that a recession will engulf Europe early next year is strengthening.” Citing: Leading global growth indicators continue to deteriorateweakening economic activity aheadsteepening of the yield curve, the rebound in the VIX, the continued weakening of carry trades, and the relapse of

Prior was +8.93B (revised to +5.23B) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs on China’s (improving) economy, citing 3 stronger signs: fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks 1. Fiscal easing – GS see signs this has recommenced in recent weeks 2. Export momentum is strong (an interesting point, it’ll be tested today: Economic calendar in Asia 10 September 2024 – Chinese trade data

· Why have Gold prices risen to record highs? · Federal Reserve rate cut expectations · Safe haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty · Central bank buying · Trading Gold with PXBT Gold prices have been on a tear this year, rising for seven straight months. The precious metal trades 21% higher year to date, reaching

Goldman Sachs expresses caution on holding tactical long positions in the Japanese yen (ie short USD/JPY) in the near term, despite its attractiveness as a hedge against a slowing US economy and potential recession risks. Key Points: Economic Context: US Economy: Slowing economic conditions and increased recession risks make the Yen a favorable hedge.Macro Forecasts:

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 growth rises to 2.5% from 2.1% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on September 9, up from 2.1 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the

The AUDUSD moved lower on Friday helped by risk-off sentiment from the tumble in US stocks. In trading today, selling has continued after a rise in the early Asian session. The fall has taken the price of the AUDUSD to a key technical support level defined by three separate technical tools: The 38.2% retracement of

BofA anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement a 25 basis point (bp) cut to the deposit rate at its September meeting, with a modestly negative impact on the EUR due to unchanged guidance and weaker growth outlook. Key Points: Rate Cut Expectation: Deposit Rate: Expected to be reduced by 25bp.Other Policy Rates: Likely

RoboMarkets group is announcing strategic changes to its European business model, which are planned to be implemented by the end of 2024. In a press release, the group stated: “Given the conditions of the European market, we have decided to focus our European operations and expertise on serving primarily stock investors and traders.” As part

Crude oil futures are trading to new session high, up $1.20 or 1.77% at $68.87. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is moving back toward the falling 100 hour moving average. That level comes in at $69.43. The price fell below that moving average on Friday, August 30, and has trended to the downside

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 111 bps (75% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 61 bps (97% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 44 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 59 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming

The Fed is in the blackout period until after the FOMC decision and the US economic calendar is light today, featuring only wholesale inventories and employment trends. That will give the market a chance to catch its breath after a hectic week to start the month. It’s also a chance to look abroad and digest

Dynamic Gains in Technology and Consumer Cyclicals Diving into today’s market activity reveals a robust uptrend led by the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. Powered by standout performances from tech giant Nvidia and retail behemoth Amazon, investors are witnessing a wave of optimism across these key areas. 📈 Technology Sector: Tech Titans Take Charge Nvidia

The USDCAD moved higher on Friday helped by weaker Canadian jobs report. The unemployment rate rose from 6.4% to 6.6%. That took the rate to the highest level since 2017 if you exclude the Covid spike from 2020/2021. Looking at the USDCAD, it moved above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart on

The data is here: China August 2024 CPI +0.6% y/y (expected +0.7%) As a recap: consumer inflation picked up, rose for a seventh consecutive monthCPI was below expectationsthe month saw supply constraints caused by abnormal weatherbut concern persists over limp demand Core CPI (strips out food and energy prices) rose 0.3% y/y, a second consecutive

Citigroup CFO Mark Mason is speaking on the state of banking and with it the economy. He says: Feels good about consumer corporate balance sheetsExpect a soft landing with the decline in rates consumer payment rates are coming downHave seen a pickup and revolving credit and credit card customersCredit card customers are moving from discretionary

The NZDUSD continued its run to the downside in trading today after sharp declines on Friday helped by the risk-off sentiment on stock selling, and lower commodities. The down momentum continued today and carried the price down toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low to the August high. That level

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius spoke on CNBC after the jobs report on Friday. said “there is a rationale” for a 50bp rate cutbut 25bp is more likelyforecasts three consecutive cuts beginning this month One caveat: “the Fed leadership is open to 50bp cuts at subsequent meetings if the labor market continues to deteriorate.”