We are monitoring actual inflation data, in particular for servicesMonthly figures will be volatile due to base effects on energyThis “noise” is not very meaningfulWe are still more outlook drivenRemains confident that inflation will be back to 2% target next yearWill reach inflation target along with a soft landing The point they are trying to […]

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher with declines only vs the GBP but gains are relatively modest with changes vs the JPY, CHF and NZD 0.05% to 0.08% from yesterday’s closing level. The GBP is stronger despite higher unemployment

Headlines: The waiting game continuesECB’s Lane: We are not pre-committing to a particular rate pathECB’s Lane: We will be agile on interest ratesECB’s Rehn: Monetary policy has dampened price pressuresECB’s Villeroy: We have leeway to lower rates before exiting restrictive stanceBOJ to begin tapering bond purchases at this week’s meeting – pollUK April ILO unemployment

In response to increasing investor demand for more cost-effective trading solutions, FP Markets, a global multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, has further reduced its spreads across various trading instruments. Christodoulos Psomas, Head of Risk at FP Markets, expressed his enthusiasm for the move and commented: ‘Through the continuous optimisation of our trading infrastructure, we have

Rates are to stay sufficiently restrictive for as long as neededThere is still high level of uncertaintyPrice pressures are still elevated and is evident in indicators for domestic inflationEconomic activity is recovering This is mainly a rehash of Lagarde’s remarks from last week. Don’t expect anything different from the ECB until we get to the

Fundamental Overview The strong US NFP report last Friday led to some defensive risk sentiment in the S&P 500 as we head into the US CPI and FOMC decision tomorrow. In the big picture, the data didn’t change much but it added a bit of uncertainty into the market which is now waiting for the

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% For French stocks, it isn’t too much comfort but at least the gap lower from yesterday is being cut by quite a bit. The CAC 40 opened the week closer towards 7,800 but is already up 1.4% from its lows yesterday.

Today the main event was the UK jobs data. We got another mixed bag with a further uptick in the unemployment rate but wage growth remaining sticky at elevated levels. This hasn’t changed much for the market as it continues to fully price the first 25 bps cut in November with a total of 35

There has been considerable progress in bringing inflation down to target These are still largely remarks to justify their rate cut from last week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I’m not uncomfortable with little more than market pricing of one rate cut this year and 90 bps by the end of 2025Future rate decisions no just all about wages, need to keep close eye on particular risks from global and European conflicts This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the info: Vietnam is expected to allow companies to import gold for the first time in over a decade, as it aims to bridge the widening gap between local prices and international benchmarks, an industry official told Reuters The Vietnam Gold Traders Association (VGTA) has been in protracted talks with the government over

Hunter Biden faces up to 10 years for the first felony, five for the second and another 10 for the third, along with fines of up to $250,000 for each of them and up to three years of supervised release. A first time offender hardly ever receives the maximum sentence but Joe Biden says he

20 of 32 (~63%) economists project the BOJ would make a decision on bond buying5 of 32 (~16%) economists project the BOJ would decide in July instead3 of 32 (~9%) economists project the BOJ would decide in September instead49 of 53 (~92%) economists anticipate that the BOJ would hike rates to at least 0.20% by

During his trip, Li will be visiting Adelaide, Canberra, and Western Australia. He will be meeting with Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, as well. I guess that’s a sign of improving relations between the two and they could do with leaning more on one another at this point. For some context, China is still Australia’s

After months of anticipation, the final countdown towards one of the most hyped events of the year, iFX EXPO International 2024, is officially underway in Limassol, Cyprus. This landmark B2B event has established itself as an annual tradition for the online trading industry, attracting thousands of attendees, leading brands, and a wide range of participants.

The market is having second thoughts about Apple’s AI strategy. Early reviews of yesterday’s Apple event that released an OpenAI integration were poor, with the stock falling 2%. Analysts weighed in though and now the market is thinking this could lead to an upgrade cycle and the shares are up more than 5% to an

To balance their outlook, they raised to Q2 2024 forecast by 50k bpd instead. That sees the total 2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25 mil bpd. For 2025, that figure is also left unchanged at 1.85 mil bpd. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The sellers in the EURUSD has extended to a new session low, and the price has now moved below the low of a swing area between 1.0722 and 1.07346. Sellers are taking more control. Key break. Can the the sellers keep the momentum going. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

January forecast was +2.4%US growth seen at 2.5% vs 1.6% in JanChina seen at 4.8% vs 4.5%India seen at 6.6% vs 6.4% priorSees 2.7% global growth in 2025 and 2026World Banks says that if interest rates stay higher for longer, then global growth could be 2.4% next yearFull report This is all about the US,

The AUDUSD sellers had their shot yesterday with the brakes below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 19 low. That level came in at 0.6579. The low prices yesterday fell to 0.6575 but stalled. Sellers turn to buyers and pushed the price higher. The sellers had their shot and missed. The

Buyers in the USDCAD are making a play with a move to new highs in early North American trading. Last week the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points. The Federal Reserve starts there today meeting today and is expected to keep rates unchanged. Stronger jobs on Friday helped to push the USDCAD

The reading represents the highest for the year so far, though it remains below the 50-year average of 98 for the 29th month running. For some context, the last time the reading was at or above the average was all the way back in December 2021. Looking at the details, the uncertainty index rose up

In Europe, politics continue to steal the show with rumours circulating on French president Macron’s potential resignation. Those murmurs have since been denied but it speaks to the delicate situation in the room at the moment. The euro is down again slightly on the day, with EUR/USD lower by 0.2% to 1.0737. EUR/GBP is also

The USDCHF trade in a narrow range to start the North American session (only about 24 pips which is less than half of what is normal) however the price is back above its 200 hour moving out at 0.89641. If the price can stay above that level and then extend above the 38.2% retracement of

The major US stock indices opening a lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 is leading the way with a decline of near 1%. The S&P and NASDAQ indices both closed at record levels yesterday, and both are trading lower in early US trading. A snapshot five minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average was

The kickstart video takes a look at three the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – at the start of the North American session. The EURUSD is moving lower and is testing a key swing area between 1.0722 and 1.07346 at the start of the North American session. That level will be

Both the S&P index and the NASDAQ index are on pace for record closes. For the NASDAQ index the high closing level is at 17187.90. The current price is trading at 17195.90 up 62.55 points or 0.37%.For the S&P index it high closing level comes in at 5354.04. The current price is trading at 5360.19

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s good to be back. I dealt with a family matter for the past week or so but all is well now and I have one day to get back into the full swing of things ahead of tomorrow’s huge day: CPI and the FOMC. The highlight today is a $39 billion 10-year reopening. There

China’s major state-owned banks seen selling dollars for yuan in onshore spot FX. Reuters report, citing four people with knowledge of the matter. Earlier: Onshore yuan (CNY) has dropped to its weakest since mid-November 2023 Giving the bid This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

Prior was -11.7%Residential +21.0% vs -8.3% priorNon-residential +19.6% vs -16.7% priorTotal permit value at $12.8% billion On a constant-dollar basis, permits are at the highest since June 2023. British Columbia rose 75.2% and posted a record high monthly total value of building permits ($3.1 billion), leading the monthly increases in both residential and non-residential sectors

ICYMI, French President Macron called a snap election just in time for the opening of Asian FX in super-ultra-thin liquidity on Monday: Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 10 June 2024EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower.Projections have centrist parties retaining majority in the

National Australia Bank Business Survey for May 2024 Business Confidence -3 prior revised to 2 Business Conditions 6 prior 7conditions tends to be a more objective measure than the confidence (sentiment) measure Ugly. Inflation indications are not encouraging: Quarterly growth in retail prices jumped to 1.6% from 1.0%Increases in labour costs and purchasing costs up

Prior 4.3%Employment change -140k vs -100k expectedPrior -177kAverage weekly earnings +5.9% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.7%; revised to +5.9%Average weekly earnings +6.0% vs +6.1% 3m/y expectedPrior +6.0%May payrolls change -3kPrior -85k; revised to -36k The jobless rate creeps up further to its highest since September 2021. It reaffirms that labour market conditions in the UK

A snippet from Bank of Montreal on the new widening monetary policy divergence, addressing “how long Powell can retain terminal as the ECB and Bank of Canada have started normalizing rates lower’. There are a few conceivable outcomes assuming that global central banks aren’t comfortable with an ever-widening divergence of policy rates 1. FOMC could

The US dollar has been supported against the yuan by interest rate differentials, US Treasury yields have firmed again since the very strong jobs data (NFP headline +272K) at the end of last week. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan reference rate at its weakest since January 19 today: PBOC sets USD/

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

Fundamental Overview The strong US NFP report last Friday triggered some defensive positioning in Bitcoin as we head into the US CPI and FOMC decision tomorrow. In the big picture, the data didn’t change much but it added a bit of uncertainty into the market which is now waiting for the US CPI to clear

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% European indices were marked down by political angst over the weekend to start the week. But the mood music is looking calmer today at least, with a light bounce observed in early trade. US futures remain more muted, with S&P 500 futures looking flat. There’s not much to

We’ve had May Money Suppy data from Japan. This is not a market mover but FWIW its come in at +1.9% y/y vs. +2.1% expected and +2.6% in April The Bank of Japan meet this week and yen traders are on edge over the question of further tightening from the Bank. If we get anhy

Yuan intervention – China’s major state-owned banks seen selling USD/CNYEuropean Commission expected to announce Chinese electric vehicle (EV) tariffs this weekOnshore yuan (CNY) has dropped to its weakest since mid-November 2023Bloomberg: Chinese Builder Dexin Receives Liquidation Order From Hong Kong CourtToyota’s vehicle certification misconduct may violate UN standardsChina doing a Chuck Norris on gold –

[Key takeaways] ● At its May meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, marking the sixth consecutive time it has remained unchanged. ● The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, rising from 50% to 70% during the first week of June due

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

JP Morgan says a Labour win in the UK election would be a net positive for UK markets: Labour party is occupying a centrist platformperception of policy paralysis is set to move behind usLabour agenda is modestly pro-growthwith a likely cautious fiscal approach Much of the note is picking apart impacts on various sectors of

The US has already done so: tariffs on Chinese EVs roughly quadrupled The European Commission will announce their tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) this week. Info via Reuters, more there. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Apple stock technical analysis following AI strategy launch event 🤖 Hello, this is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, providing a detailed technical analysis of Apple stock after the company unveiled its Apple Intelligence (AI) strategy. This analysis examines the market’s reaction and the implications for investors and traders. 📈📉 Event overview and market reaction 🌟 Apple’s

It’s been a slower start to proceedings as markets are on edge ahead of the main events coming up later in the week. The euro fell yesterday but it owed to political angst over the weekend. Besides that, major currencies saw no follow through to the US jobs report from Friday last week. It means

Another one bites the dust in China’s drowning- in-debt property sector. Bloomberg is gated. Dexin is not a huge developer, described as ‘medium sized’. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. That speaks to the lack of interest in price levels for today mostly. The main events in markets will only kick off tomorrow, so there is not much appetite to really chase anything until then. And that is exemplified by the expiries board

Coming up today: 0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: ECB Governing Council policymaker and French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau is due to speak at a Europlace financial conference in Paris 1100 GMT / 0700 US Eastern time: Fireside chat with ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane at the Banking and Payments

China is the world’s biggest official sector buyer of gold. In May the People’s Bank of China ‘paused’ buying, higher prices cited: GOLD ICYMI: People’s Bank of China completely stopped buying last month Gold folks expect the buying to resume soon. “China’s data did show a pause,” David Tait, CEO of the World Gold Council

UBS raised the question … sometimes just raising the question is worrying enough. To cut to the chase UBS says a rate hike won’t happen. “Overall, we keep our view that the U.S. economy is slowing”Rate hikes are unlikely, while the report was stronger than expected but is still not enough to warrant any rate

This has been ongoing for some time, irregularities in applications to certify certain models of vehicles. I posted here for background: Japan’s transport ministry ordered Toyota, Mazda,Yamaha to suspend some vehicle shipments Reuters conveying the latest info reported by Japanese media, Yomiri: Japan’s transport ministry has concluded that six cases of irregularities in vehicle certifications

Thisnkg heating up on the Korean peninsula. Yonhap with the info on the border crossing. Says it was brief. Getting shot at would keep it brief, yeah. South Korean military says the intrusion was unintentional. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a light data calendar today. National Australia Bank Business Survey for May and Money Supply for May from Japan are of only lower-tier importance. Hong Kong, China and Australia are all back from a Monday holiday long weekend. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column

S&P and NASDAQ indices close at record levels. Dow pushes into positive territory at closeCrude oil futures settle at $77.74The EURUSD bounced off a swing area support and is back testing retracement targetsU.S. Treasury sells $53 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 4.659%ECB Pres. Lagarde: Rates not necessarily on a linear

Writing just before the Monday pop higher for crude, Bank of America analysts says oil prices were reflecting any risk premium at all, “zero”. Said it was trading cheap. Ahead: oil the “best upside hedge for pre-US election geopolitical risk”there is “no Goldilocks in Geopolitics as global players not too focused on de-escalation”and that oil

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

MUFG outlook for the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the implications for the US dollar. in brief: “The strong employment report increases the risk of the Fed providing a more hawkish policy update”expects the Fed to signal a delay to rate-cut plans due to inflation staying elevated … “The power of the

Japan finance minister Suzuki says important we continue efforts to achieve fiscal healthusage of frozen Russian assets needs to be in compliance with international law. And that’s it so far. If he says anything on the currency I’ll get it posted. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures settle at $77.74. That is up $2.21 or 2.93%. The high price reached $77.92. The low price reached $75.29. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major stock indices all closed higher today. The Dow Industrial Average which was negative for much of the day rallied into the close and closed in positive territory up 69.05 points or 0.18% at 38868.03. The index is still below its all-time record close of 40,003 reached on May 17. The NASDAQ index and

Snippet from UBS on what’s ahead this week: CPI, FOMC, and more fresh S&P 500 record highs? On the CPI (due Wednesday, 12 June 2024 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT)): A reading around the previous result (April @ 3.4% y/y) is likely to be enough to ensure investors remain confident in the

Japan’s Nikkei (gated) with the report. In brief from the article, comments from Blackstone President Jonathan Gray: “There are a number of factors that have come together that have really accelerated growth in the Japanese economy as well as investment opportunities”“It’s been the return of inflation to the Japanese economy, the strength in the stock

The EURUSD . Swing area support in the early US session between 1.0721 and 1.07346. The buyers stepped in after the sharp fall on Friday and the continuation of fall in trading today. The subsequent rally has now see the price move up to test retracement targets near 1.0759 if the price is able to

ECB Pres. Lagarde in a newspaper interview says: Rates may not necessarily be on a linear declining path, there might be periods when we holdPossible ECB will hold rates for longer than a single meeting.Keen to see evolution of labor costs, corporate profits.Time dependent guidance on rates not helpful. The ECB cut rates by 25

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Sellers had their shot in the AUDUSD in Asian session, but missed. As a result, sellers turned buyers. The price has rotated in the New York session higher but is approaching a moving average resistance level. Find out all about it in the video above. Be aware. Be prepared This article was written by Greg

Prior month 111.25 (lowest level since October 2021) revised to 110.48Employment trends for May 2024 comes in at 111.44 versus 110.48 revised last month Details: May’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from six of its eight components: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”Job OpeningsPercentage

The NY Fed survey showed: 1 year inflation expectations falling to 3.2% from 3.3%3-year inflation expectations remains unchanged at 2.8%5-year inflation expectations rises to 3.0% from 2.8% Other details: Median one-year inflation expectations fell to 3.2% in May from 3.3%, unchanged at 2.8% for three years, and rose to 3.0% from 2.8% for five years.Median

The Apple worldwide developers conference will begin at the top of the hour. The integration of AI is being promised. Will they deliver to the satisfaction of investors? To watch click on the link above. Apple shares are trading at $195.58 down $1.31 or -0.68% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

High yield 4.659%WI level at the time of the auction 4.648%Tail 1.1 basis points vs 0.1 6-month averageBid to cover 2.43X vs 2.57X vs 6-month averageDealer 19.9% vs 18.52% 6-month avereageDirects 15.9% vs 18.7% 6 month averageIndirects 64.14% vs 63.2% 6-month average AUCTION GRADE: D The domestic demand was very small. The international tried to

In terms of central bank decisions, there is the Fed and BOJ to work through. And right before the former, there is the US CPI report for markets to scrutinise. After, there is the PPI data and weekly jobless claims. That aside, we also have the UK and Australian labour market reports on the agenda.

From earlier: Far-right movement makes waves in Europe over the weekend That is the main development that is weighing on the euro currency to start the week. In particular, the situation in France and Germany. The former has seen Macron call for a snap election while the latter sees Scholz’s SPD faction suffer a blow

Reuters with the report citing 5 unnamed sources. In brief: Some of the world’s major economies want to finalise a plan ahead of this year’s U.N. climate summit to halt new private sector funding for coal projectsIf approved, the draft proposal by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, would be the first move by

Deriv, a globally recognised online trading company with a 25-year legacy of growth, innovation, and expansion, is pleased to announce its elite sponsorship of iFX EXPO International Conference in June 2024. As an Elite-level sponsor, Deriv will engage with industry leaders, showcase innovative products, and build invaluable partnerships. Aggelos Armenatzoglou, Deriv’s Head of Dealing, commented:

Prior -3.6 That’s the eighth straight month that euro area investor morale sees an improvement. This time, being more than estimated as well. The expectations index also saw a rise, up from 7.8 in May to 10.0 in June. Sentix still singles out Germany as being the one that needs to see more improvement for

Headlines: Far-right movement makes waves in Europe over the weekendItaly-Germany 10-year bond yields spread widens by the most since AprilWas the US NFP a gamechanger?ECB’s Nagel: We must be cautious about future rate movesEurozone June Sentix investor confidence 0.3 vs -1.8 expectedSNB total sight deposits w.e. 7 June CHF 459.8 bn vs CHF 461.9 bn

It’s a big week coming up for oil, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday (FOMC Wednesday too!): The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release their latest monthly oil market reports OPEC on Tuesday June 11IEA on Wednesday June 12 Last week(end), June 2, OPEC said it would

Japan GDP SA Q1 2024 (final) -0.5% q/q prior 0.1% (the prior is Q4 2023) Annualised SA -1.8% q/q prior 0.4% GDP Deflator 3.4% y/y prior 3.9%The GDP Deflator is a measure of inflation Prelim reading is here: Japan’s annualised Q1 GDP -2.0% q/q (vs -1.5% expected) The latest from the Bank of Japan (via

Major US stock indices open lower to start the trading week. Last week the major indices did advance rebounding from the declines in the previous week. Dow Industrial Average average rose 0.29%S&P index rose 1.32%NASDAQ index rose 2.38% The snapshot of the market today shows: Dow Industrial Average average is trading down 80 points or

The economic calendar is light today with US employment trends for May 2 due at 10 AM ET. Last month the index came in at 111.25, which was the lowest level since October 2021. The only other economic event will be the three year note auction at 1 PM ET. The auction is the first

The broader US stock indices are now in positive territory and approaching all-time high closing levels: S&P index is trading at 5349.71 up 2.85 points or 0.08%. The all-time high closing level comes in at 5354.04. NASDAQ index is trading up 41.76 or 0.24% at 17174.84. The all-time high closing level for that index is

European indices are closing lower as yields move higher. Markets are spooked as a result of the election results which shifted more to the right. In the benchmark 10 year sector: Germany 2.676%, +5.2 basis pointsFrance 3.239%, +13.4 basis pointsUK 4.329%, +7.5 basis pointsSpain 3.493%, +9.6 basis pointsItaly 4.08%, was 13.6 basis points Looking at

The USDCAD extended toward the May high at 1.3784. The price of the USDCAD got within about three pips of that high and found willing sellers, the price has rotated modestly to the downside but the inability to move above that level puts a temporary feeling on the pair for now. They move back down

Fundamental Overview Gold had a really bad Friday last week as it suffered one of its worst days in several months. The reason for the selloff was due to two strong catalysts. The first one hit in the European session when we got the headline that China halted its reserve buying. This has been the

In the kickstart FX trading video for June 10, I take a look at 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is sharply lower as the markets reacted negatively to higher rates and the European elections. France’s Macron called a snap election of the parliament on the results which shifted

The USDCHF is consolidating and trading up and down in a relatively narrow trading range between 0.8954 in 0.8982. At session highs, the price fell short of its 38.2% retracement and 200-hour moving average. Those levels dominate 0.8986 and 0.8983 respectively. On the downside, the low price stalled near a corrective low from Friday’s trade

FP Markets continues to solidify its position as a leading force in the Forex and CFDs industry, having recently been awarded ‘Best Trading Experience – Africa’ at this year’s Financial Achievements in Markets Excellency (FAME) Awards. This follows their ‘Best CFD Broker in Africa’ recognition at the 2023 FAME Awards, cementing the broker’s strategic geographical

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher with the gains vs the EUR of 0.50% being most of the gain. The USD is lower vs the AUD (by -0.17%). It is less about today and more about the week ahead,

US political news with perhaps some relevance for traders given Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee despite his felony convictions. The US has not had a convicted criminal as President, if Trump wins it’ll be a first for markets. Trump is scheduled to sit for a virtual interview on Monday with a New

This has been the key indicator in measuring risk in the euro area, especially for political matters. It was the same back in 2019 when we had all the risk involving Italian politics. So, this time will be no different. In trying to weigh up the impact on the euro, this will be a good

French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election on Sunday. His decision came after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party polled very strongly in European elections held on Sudnay. Le Pen made the largest gains in European Parliament electionsGreens and liberals lost ground Macron has announced that he is dissolving the national assemblyHas called

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 level. It’s not one that holds any technical significance, so I wouldn’t attach too much importance to the expiry level. The pair opened today with a gap lower below the 1.0800 level, falling

Nvidia will start trading today around 120$ after the 10:1 stock split. Let’s see what is a stock split and how it works. In order to increase the share’s liquidity and make it more affordable, a corporation may split its existing shares into many shares, a move known as a stock split. Because the split

Eurostoxx -1.3%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -2.2%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -0.8% The political angst from the European parliamentary election over the weekend is weighing on regional stocks today. US futures are also more subdued, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1%. For French stocks, this would mark the biggest daily drop since November

Japan’s Nikkei (gated) cites unnamed sources for its assertion that the Bank of Japan will consider whether to scale back its roughly 6 trillion yen ($38 billion) in monthly Japanese Government Bond purchases. ‘Consider’ whether to scale back is not the same as ‘will’ scale back, of course. I’m not sure that ‘consider’ is that

Goldman Sachs on oil, in brief: Sees a $90/bbl ceiling in their base case of no geopolitical supply hits, and the risks to their $75-$90 range as modestly to the downside for oil pricesWe expect that healthy consumers and solid summer demand for transportation and cooling will push the oil market in a sizable Q3

Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.1 bn vs CHF 452.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits declined further in the past week but it isn’t anything out of line with what we have seen in the last few months: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

UK Times (gated) with the report: Volvo cars has started to shift production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Belgium in the expectation that the EU will drive ahead with a crackdown on Beijing-subsidised imports Volvo is majority-owned by China’s Geelymoving production of Volvo’s EX30 and EX90 models from China to Belgium to avoid EU tariffs

This week presents a relatively light calendar in terms of economic events, which is typical for the period following the NFP report. However, there are some very significant events to watch for. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. These figures will provide

Rates are on a mountain ridge, not a peakWe still have to find the right point for a further descentWe must remain cautiousUncertainty about future economic and price trend remains high The language continues to suggest that they will be pausing in July, as per what is expected at the moment. This article was written

Weekend news reports say that U.S. officials expect the Group of Seven (G7) to warn smaller Chinese banks to stop assisting Russia in evading Western sanctions. Reuters cite two people familiar with the matter. G7 leaders are meeting on June 13-15 in Italy. Reuters report is here for more The G7 are Canada France, Germany,

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Statement due at 2pm US Eastern time, with Powell’s press conference following a half hour later: Pretty much the unanimous expectations out there is for no rate cut. As for the dot plot, consensus is it’ll show two rate cuts

The US NFP on Friday surprised the markets as the data came out much better than expected. I would argue that the part that weighed the most was the strong average hourly earnings figures. Now, I’m not an economist, so I try to look at it from a market participant’s perspective gathering analyses from the

Via a note from JP Morgan chief US economist Michael Feroli on Friday: On the ‘dot plot: he expects the Fed to project a median of two interest rate cuts to come in 2024 The dots showed three in their most recent update, at the March meeting. At Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference expects:

This is weighing on the euro: EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower. Its not as if its collapsing, its off 20 points or so from late Friday, circa 1.0775 or so. As I say EVERY SINGLE WEEK: As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity

European political analysts’ assessment of the European Union elections, in a nutshell: mainstream parties looked set to keep a majority in the EU parliamentbut far-right parties are on course to boost presence There has been much hand wringing over high-profile gains by far-right parties, none more so than Macron: EU politics – French President Macron

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.6% That alongside the more sluggish end to last week seen in Wall Street. In Europe, this is the main story over the weekend. S&P 500 futures are also marginally lower by 0.1%, in keeping with the more subdued mood to start the week. This article was written by

The French president decided to call a snap election in a last ditch effort to try and salvage the situation. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally faction looks set to win 33% of the vote – more than doubling Macron’s 15%. Without a majority, Macron would be in a tough spot in trying to push forward

There’s absolutely nothing on the agenda today, so the markets will be mostly dominated by flows set in motion by the hot US NFP report last Friday and the European elections over the weekend. We have a negative risk sentiment as the markets trade more cautiously into the US CPI and FOMC decision on Wednesday.

ICYMI: JP Morgan shifted their forecast for the first FOMC rate cut from July to NovemberGoldman Sachs preview the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week – no cut, but …Volvo shifting production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Europe, to avoid tariffsIt’s a big week coming up for oil, we hear again from OPEC plus

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. It’ll be ‘thinner for longer’ here this morning with Australian markets closed for a holiday. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0790 … A touch

I posted earlier on Goldman Sachs’ Fed preview: Goldman Sachs preview the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week – no cut, but … ps. The ‘but’ is GS expect a rate cut from the FOMC in September and then again in December with a barrage of more to follow in 2025 and 2026. As

PIMCO says the next moves from the ECB will be decided by data flow over the coming months. In brief: we envision the ECB to keep cutting rates at staff projection meetings market pricing seems reasonable and broadly in line with our long-held baseline of three cuts for this year we expect additional cuts in

Q1 GDP data from Japan confirmed the enormous contraction: Japan’s Q1 GDP (revised) -1.8% (annualized) – massive economic slump Almost as if in response the draft of the Jap[anese government’s annual economic blueprint has once again been sighted by Reuters. This happened last week too: Japan’s government to warn of weak yen This time around:

more to come The Wall Street Journal report on a major highway linking Idaho to Jackson, Wyo., near Grand Teton National Park, closed indefinitely, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is the location of the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium. This seminar is a big deal, attracting leading central bankers from across the globe. Thankfully there

Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and China are closed for holidays today, Monday, 10 June 2024. This will thin out liquidity during the Asian timezone a little. New Zealand, Japan, Singapore all remain open. The holidays are for Tuen Ng Festival (Dragon Boat Festival) and the King’s Birthday. I’ll leave you to figure out who

Euro/USD technical analysis: Video for currency investors and traders Potential Bull Flag Formation 🏳️ Second touch point on June 3rd 📅Potential breakout identified but not confirmed yet 🚩 Job Report Impact 📉 Tight stop hit after the job report release on Friday 📊Importance of maintaining stops due to new market events 🛑 Daily Time Frame

Before we look at the data agenda, ICYMI this is weighing on EUR early: EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower.Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 10 June 2024 Its not the end of the world for the EUR, but it’s a few points

Crude oil is closing near unchanged on the day. The settlement price is $75.53. That’s down to cents or -0.03%. For the week, the price is down -$0.38 or -0.50%. The prices also settling below its 200 week moving average for the first time since January 2021. That 200 week moving average comes in at

Major indices close lower on the day/higher for the weekCrude oil settles at $75.53US consumer credit for April rises by $6.40B versus $11.0B increase estimateWith the Bank of Canada, ECB and jobs in the rear view mirror, the Fed is aheadECB Pres. Lagarde: Still a long way to go until inflation is defeatedBaker Hughes oil

The 50-200 Moving Average Crossover is an easy concept to build a trading strategy around because the inputs are simple and the potential optimizations are straightforward. So it’s perfect if you’re just getting started with trading strategy development. Many trading websites will give you what they say is the “best” 50-200 crossover strategy. Interestingly, most

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but higher for the week. This week, both the S&P and NASDAQ indices traded to the new all-time high levels. The S&P index reached a site today of 5375.08. That is its new all-time record high. The gains could not be maintained and the

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: Japan PPI, China CPI, UK GDP, US CPI, FOMC Policy Decision.Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, Swiss PPI, Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoJ Policy Decision, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Tuesday The UK unemployment

This week the Bank of Canada and the ECB cut rates each by 25 basis points. For each, it was the central banks initial cut. The Bank of Canada announced their interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank cut from what is restrictive policy, but acknowledge further cuts are dependent on upcoming data. BANK

The AUD is one of the weakets of the major currencies (along with the NZD). Commodities are sharply lower on the back of the higher dollar/higher rates/a more stubborn Fed. Technically, the price has moved lower to test a cluster of support including the 38.2% retracement at 0.6579, a swing area between 0.6579 to 0.6585.

The PBOC is China’s central bank and the biggest buyer of gold in the world. Data hit on Friday that the Bank bought zero gold in May: ForexLive European FX news wrap: ECB tries to justify rate cut, gold dips on China In May 2024 gold prices hit a record high, and it looks like

Path to 2% inflation won’t be entirely smooth.Made major progress, but inflation fight is not overRates to remain restrictive for as long as necessary.ECB still needs vigilance or commitment, perseverance.Still a long way to go until inflation defeated. The ECB cut rates yesterday, with one dissenter, but since then there seems to be more regret

Backtesting is the best way to verify that a trading strategy has an edge and optimize that strategy to meet your goals. Despite its importance, backtesting does have its limitations. The primary constraints of manual backtesting are that it requires discretionary input from the trader and is not highly scalable. Automated backtesting is limited by

In trading, backtesting and forward testing are essential methods for evaluating the potential success of trading strategies. Backtesting allows traders to assess how a strategy would have performed in the past by simulating trades with historical data. Unlike backtesting, forward testing involves trading a strategy in real-time with live data in a demo account, without

OK I tried it.. and it is garbage. Over and out…. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

? When you buy something through one of the links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Are you tired of losing money on trading robots that promise you profits, but never deliver? Look no further than this article, where I will share the truth about which trading bots actually work and how

Robert Holzmann is Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member, billed by many pundits as the A1 hawk at the table. Holzmann spoke in a radio interview on Saturday with public broadcaster ORF (Österreichischer Rundfunk, ‘Austrian Broadcasting’). He said further European Central Bank rate cuts in the abscence of

Baker Hughes rig count for the week shows: Oil rigs -4 to 496Gas rigs -2 to 98Total rigs -6 to 594 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In a previous article, I showed you how to create a fully automated 50-200 moving average crossover trading strategy, without coding. Now I’m going to show you the backtesting results of that strategy for every market that I’ve tested. I’ll show you both the good and bad. You have to backtest this strategy yourself to

Prior month $6.27 billion revised down to $-1.10 billionConsumer credit $6.4 billion vs $11.0 billion estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Backtesting is the systematic process of finding out if a trading strategy has worked in the past and therefore will be very likely to work in the future.  This is the most important step that a trader can go through to prove that their trading strategy actually works. Yet, so many aspiring traders miss this

In this tutorial, I’ll show you how I backtest multiple timeframes at the same time. You’ll learn how to setup multiple charts and have them all run at the same speed while you backtest. This is easy to do. There are many software solutions that can do it, but it may not be obvious how

Today, we have Oliver Kell on the show. What’s interesting about Oliver is he took part in the US investing championship in 2020—and came in first place! Achieving a staggering return of 941.1%! That’s like having $10,000 in your account in January and seeing it become $100k in December. The post The Stock Trader Who

Thank you for your interest!You’ll be the first to know when enrollment for the Forex Trading Income (FTFI) is open. The post Thank You for Signing Up appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Today we have Jack Schwager on the show! I believe he needs no introduction but I’ll do it anyway…He is the author of the Market Wizards book series and has inspired a generation of traders (me included). The post Market Wizards: Behind The Scenes (With Jack Schwager) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

When you’re testing trading strategies to gauge their profit potential, backtesting is a crucial step. But it’s not enough to just stop at the total return of a strategy in backtesting. There are many metrics that should be studied to assess the viability of a strategy, and if it will meet your goals. A Monte

In my experience, backtesting a trading strategy is an essential step before deploying it in the market. It allows me to assess how the strategy would have performed in the past, giving me a clearer idea of its potential success in the future. Manual backtesting is great, but automated backtesting speeds up the process considerably.

Easy Forex Builder (EFB) is a no-code, online tool for building automated Forex trading strategies. Once a strategy is built in this software, it can be exported to MetaTrader or Forex Tester for backtesting or even live trading. I reviewed EFB when it first came out and I was not impressed. It was not able

Discover the ins and outs of forex lot size to trade with confidence and precision in the forex markets, never doubting your decisions again The post The Essential Guide To Forex Lot Size appeared first on TradingwithRayner.