No economist predict the BOJ would raise rates in September28 of 52 economists (~54%) expect the BOJ to raise rates by year-endMedian prediction for year-end interest rate is 25 bps higher at 0.50%Of those expecting a rate hike, 18 of 23 economists anticipate it to be in DecemberThe remaining 5 economists expect a hike in […]

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is mixed to lower. TGIF to all traders. The USDJPY is reacting to the BOJ not raising and the Fed perhaps going 50 bps. The day after the ECB cut, a number of ECB officials are

Broader US stock indices up for the fourth consecutive dayCPI and PPI data point to a tame ore PCE next monthWas the CItigroup trader the best trader in the world? He thinks so.WSJ Timiraos: Fed has a rate cut dilemma. Go big or go smallReuters IPSOS poll: Harris 47%. Trump 42%US Treasury auctions off $58

We should continue to reduce gradually and as appropriate the degree of monetary restriction.ECB must be attentive to risk of undershooting target.Market inflation expectations well below the ECB forecasts.The latest activity data have been somewhat disappointing.Pace of easing has to be highly pragmatic, we keep our full optionality for the next meetings.The ECB must be

Monetary policy is now on a good trajectoryInflation is much less worrisome than when ECB first started cutting rates in June”I am not per se against lowering rates, I only object when the timing does not look right”Headline inflation expected to rise temporarily in the coming months due to base effectsOctober might not be the

Will raise the retirement age for men to 63 – effective January 1, 2025.Will raise retirement age for white collar female workers to 58 – effective January 1, 2025.Will raise retirement age for blue collar female workers to 55 – effective January 1, 2025.From January 2030 the minimum period for employees to receive basic pension

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 43% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

The strike will begin at midnight Pacific Time or in just under two-and-a-half hours from now. Boeing’s US factory workers have rejected the company’s plea deal from earlier this week, which includes a 25% pay rise over four years. The union had previously targeted a 40% pay rise, so there is quite a discrepancy there.

Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television on the global bond market: sale of $39 billion 10-year US Treasury notes Wednesday had “massive indirect demand” “I can only reconcile it by the ton of cash that’s on the sideline, and the fear that if you don’t lock in interest rates now, you will lose interest income

We are not committed to any predetermined rate path.Inflation to be largely steered by core and services. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Reuters polling of 65 analysts. All 65 economists in a Reuters poll said the BoE will likely hold rates at 5.0% on September 19News on price pressures has been mixed. Wage growth cooled as members of the Monetary Policy Committee expected last month and the economy failed to grow in July. the BoE could announce

I posted earlier this week on Ftich analysts on the FOMC: Fitch says the coming Federal Reserve easing cycle will be mild and slow Fitch now on the Bank of Japan: BOJ “is bucking the global trend of policy easing and hiked rates more aggressively than we had anticipated in July. This reflects its growing

NZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). Still in contraction at 45.8 prior revised to 44 .4, from 44.0long term average is 52.6has been in contraction for 18 consecutive months BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: sub-index results for Production (46.3) and New Orders (46.8) were both the strongest they have been in a few

Eurostoxx +0.42%Germany DAX +0.27%France CAC 40 +0.29%UK FTSE +0.14%Spain IBEX +0.33%Italy FTSE MIB +0.14% The mood in the market remains broadly positive. ICYMI yesterday around 18:53 Central European Time, WSJ’s Timiraos came out with a piece which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50

ECB rate cuts are supportive of growthCurrent uncertainties emphasise the dependence on fresh data on the economyWill base decisions on assessment of inflation outlook, dynamics of core inflation, and also the strength of monetary policy transmission To sum up, he’s just saying that the ECB is on the right path in cutting rates. And that

There are venues for betting on the US election but this is seen as a big deal because IB has around 3 million customers. IB will open betting from Monday, September 16. bets on Trump or Harrisalso bets on swing-state Senate races Info via Wall Street Journal (gated) – In other political news, Trump has

The Financial Times has published a fascinating article about Gary Stevenson, a former Citibank trader who boldly claims to have been the best trader in the world. The piece, titled “Gary Stevenson claims to have been the best trader in the world. His old colleagues disagree”, is available to read in full without a paywall

After a sharp declines last week when they NASDAQ index fell by -5.77% and the S&P fell by -4.25%, each of those indices are up for four consecutive days this week. The NASDAQ index is now up 5.27%, while the S&P index as rebounded by 3.46% this week. Looking at the major indices today: Dow

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6740 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance though, so there might not be much in it. But if anything else, the expiries could keep price action locked in a little

China data this weekend: Will housing prices show signs of stabilization?Former New York Fed President Dudley sees a strong case for 50bp interest rate cutPricing for a 50bp FOMC rate cut has firmed in just a few hours, 41% nowChina’s 10 year government bond yield has fallen to a record low of 2.0775%Fitch are forecasting

Analysts at PIMCO have issued a note with what’s ahead for the US dollar as the US Federal Reserve begins it rate cut cycle. They highlight that since the 1990s, the dollar has typically weakened, albeit temporarily, following initial rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. And add that during previous cycles of monetary easing, whether

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period, which means no communication from Fed officials on their outlook for monetary policy. Going into the blackout Fed officials very much played won anything other than 25bp. And now this, the probability of a 50bp hik has surged. Its not unusual for ‘leaks’ to come though, if

Expects to reach inflation goal at the end of next year Just some token remarks there by Nagel. It just reaffirms the path that the ECB is on at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Dudley was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from January 27, 2009, through to 2018. He also served as the vice chairman and was a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). “I think there’s a strong case for 50, whether they’re going to do it

I posted earlier on the data coming from China this weekend: Critical data coming for AUD/USD … this weekend! (Spoiler – China data) All of the three major indicators are expected to show slower growth than they did in July. Via ING, more: We are generally looking for another month of sluggish growth data this

Updating USD/JPY in the abscense of any news nor data out of Japan. Just continued JPY volatility (buying really!). We visited under 141.00 eaeleir this week on BoJ comments: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This via Deutsche Bank was ahead of the rate cut (a precap?), that admittedly everyone was expecting. What makes this ECB rate cut cycle unusual is that it’s happening against the backdrop of fairly buoyant equity markets. this is the first time since 1960 that ECB or Bundesbank rate cuts have started when the DAX

Nick Timiraos at the Journal (gated) writes on the Federal Reserve questioning if it should cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point at next week’s meeting. Says: Powell kept all his options openFed nervous about keeping interest rates too high for too longfirmer housing costs in the consumer-price index

Goldman Sachs expect the Bank of England to move to consecutive cuts starting at the November meeting GS expect a terminall rate of 3% Goldman analysts cite: UK wage growth to slow down – “While the level of pay growth remains high, the sequential pace of pay rises has slowed and important forward-looking indicators have

The EURUSD is running to a new high for the day up to 1.10597. That has now taken the price of the pair above its 200-hour MA at 1.10563. Traders will be looking for more upside momentum on the break. The price is also moving away from the 100-hour MA AND the broken 38.2% of

The price of gold has been trading between $2471 and $2531 since August 16. There have been a number of different times the price low has been tested and a number different times the price high has been tested. Today, however, the price made a break for it above the topside swing area and we

Underscoring some analysts view that the US economy will not go in to a prolonged recession and may continue to have the soft landing. The Federal Reserve is reporting that US household net worth rose to a record $163.8 trillion in Q2 2024. Stock market values rose by $0.7 trillion in Q2Real estate values rose

The USDCAD is finding buyers against its rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.35756 (see rising blue line on the chart below). Stay above that moving average will keep the buyers more in control. Also in play is a 200 day moving average at 1.35889. On the topside, there is work to do to

Headlines: Euro remains boxed in ahead of the ECB laterGold Technical Analysis – Can’t get out of this rangeWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ’s Tamura says pace of rate hikes is likely to be slowBOJ’s Tamura: Cannot say whether we could raise rates by year-endSpain August final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelimChina reportedly to

The US treasury auctioned off $58 billion of the 30 year bonds. High yield: 4.015% Previous 4.314%six-month average 4.460% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.001% Tail: 1.4 bps Previous: 3.1 basis points6-month average: 0.3 basis points Bid to Cover: 2.38X Previous: 2.31X6-month average: 2.39X Dealers: 15.7% Previous: 19.2%6-month average: 15.9% Directs: 15.7%

The data shows that real median rental costs increased by 3.8% last year while real median home values rose by 1.8%, via data released as part of the American Community Survey. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau data itself shows that renter households spent 31.0% of their income on housing costs at the median last year. And

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The shelter component re-accelerated and that’s something to keep an eye on given the imminent rate cut cycle as we might get a reacceleration

The major European indices are closing higher in the day led by Spain’s Ibex which is higher by 1.08% today: German DAX, +0.97%France’s CAC +0.52%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.57%Spain’s Ibex +1.08%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.84% As London/European traders head for the exits, US indices are mixed: The Dow industrial average is down -42.3 points or -0.10% and

A Reuters/IPSOS poll after the debate shows: Harris 47% . Trump 42%Among registered voters who heard at least something about Tuesday’s presidential debate, 53% said Harris won, while 24% said Trump wonAsked which of the two stumbled and it didn’t appear sharp, Trump was the pick of 52% percent of voters familiar with the debate

The WSJ Timiraos is out with an analysis of the upcoming Fed rate decision. The title of the article says it all with the author calling the decision a dilemma. That is does the Fed go big or small (or by 25 basis points or 50 basis points). Some of the highlights; Fed set to

Yesterday, the USDCHF moved above its 100 hour moving average, eight 200 hour moving average, and its 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart. All those breaks help the pair move up toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid August high. That level came in at 0.85172. Initially, sellers

The Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations for Australia shows a drop to 4.4% in September prior 4.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia target band is 2 to 3% for inflation. Expectations are well above official CPI rates (quarterly and monthly) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB sources via Bloomberg reports: Given the downside risk in economic growth in the EU, ECB officials are keeping the door open for a cut at the October meeting Reuters is now reporting: Policymakers see an interest rate cut in October as unlikely, unless there’s a major downturn in growth The ECB cut borrowing costs

The European Central Bank meet on Thursday, September 12. A rate cut is widely expected. I posted a preview here earlier this week: ECB eyes rate cut amid weakening outlook – preview of the September 12 meeting The announcement is coming up at 1215 GMT, 0815 US Eastern time with the presser following a half

A former Reserve Bank of Australia Governor, Bernie Fraser, says the current RBA board is excessively focused on inflation: Fraser says the Board should cut the cash rateFraser cited looming “recessionary risks”, that would be devastating for the jobs market — Fraser was Governor from September 1989 to September 1996. Fraser (arrow points to him)

📊 Sector Overview The US stock market showcased a mixed bag today, with a notable divergence across sectors. A close look reveals that communication services led the charge with robust performances, while the semiconductor sector struggled amid widespread declines. Semiconductors: Major names like Nvidia (NVDA) slipped by 0.85% and AMD by 0.91%, reflecting cautious sentiment.

The major US stock indices are trading modestly higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average is up 32.49 points or 0.08% at 40894.20S&P index is up 1.49 points or 0.03% at 5555.62NASDAQ index is up 30 points or 0.10% at 17425 The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 11.22 points or

The August US budget deficit data was released early. It was expected later this afternoon. US August 2024 budget deficit $-380 billion versus $-317.3 billion estimateAugust 2023 surplus was $89 billionFiscal 2024 year-to-date deficit $1.897 trillion versus comparable fiscal 2023 of $1.525 billion deficit.US August budget outlays $687 billion versus $194 billion in August 2023.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior month 2.2% YoY. Revised to 2.1%PPI final demand YoY 1.7% vs 1.8% estimatePPI final demand MoM 0.2% vs 0.1% estimate. Prior 0.1% revised to 0.0%PPI Ex food and energy YoY 2.4% vs 2.5% estimate. Prior 2.4% revised to 2.3%PPI Ex food and energy MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate. Prior 0.00% revised to -0.2%PPI food

The IEA kept their forecasts for global oil demand broadly unchanged, seen at 900k bpd this year and 950k bpd for next year. That said, these numbers are way more pessimistic than other forecasters. That especially when you compare to OPEC, as seen here, even with their latest adjustments lower. In keeping with their forecast,

18 July12 September 2024 The Governing Council today decided to keeplower the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information broadly supportsdeposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s previousupdated assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. While some

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the North American session begins. Having said that, the major currencies are also scrunched together. Low to high trading ranges are relatively narrow with the EURUSD only having a 18 pips trading range, the USDCAD only 20 pips and the GBPUSD only 29

To watch the Press conference live, click above. The Full statement: The Governing Council today decided to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and

In FX, the changes are light overall with dollar pairs keeping in relatively narrow ranges thus far today. The euro is in focus amid the ECB later but there shouldn’t be any real surprises from the decision itself. EUR/USD is trapped today in a 17 pips range and understandably so. The pair has very large

German DAX futures +1.0%UK FTSE futures +1.1% European indices observed a mixed close yesterday but are now having to play catch up a little to the gains in Wall Street. Tech shares were the ones leading the charge yesterday, so the gains might not be too prominent in Europe as a whole. But US futures

The EURUSD is trading at 1.1026 as the press conference begins. The high for the day has reached 1.1032 after the decision. The 100 hour MA looms above at 1.10416 Headlines from commentary: Recovery is facing headwindsExpect the recovery to strengthen.Fading monetary policy restrictions should support economy.Labor market remains resilient.Surveys point to further moderation and

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.50% vs 3.50% expectedPrior 3.75%Main refinancing rate 3.65% vs 3.65% expectedPrior 4.25%Marginal lending facility 3.90%Prior 4.50%It is now appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restrictionRecent inflation data have come in broadly as expectedInflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The shelter component re-accelerated and that’s something to keep an eye on given the imminent rate cut cycle. The data triggered a repricing

The US PPI data was more or less as expected. It did not change any projections for Fed policy decision next week which is centered on a 25 basis point cut. Nevertheless, the USDJPY has been moving back to the downside. Helping the bias is the inability to stay above its 100-hour moving average at

The dollar held its ground after the US CPI report yesterday here. It was a bit of a mixed one with some emphasis on the monthly core rising. But again, it just serves to rebuff expectations for a 25 bps rate cut next week. That rather than a 50 bps move and market players had

In the kickstart video for September 12, I take a look at three the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The USD is lower after they PPI data and the ECB rate decision to cut interest rates. All was much as expected so the changes are fairly modest.

When markets are quite fragile, need to set a period to ensure it markets cool downBig and rapid market volatility is undesirableUpside risk to inflation has subsided somewhat when compared to USD/JPY being at 160A weak yen is being reversed somewhatBut rise in import costs seen earlier this year will affect inflation with a lag

Major US stock indices had a snapback day, and what a snapback day it was. The Dow industrial average was lower by 743.89 points, but is closing up 124.75 points or 0.31% at 40861.71. At one point today all the Dow stocks were trading lower.The S&P was down -88.56 points but is closing higher by

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The data triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just a 13% probability of a 50 bps cut

Prior month -13.9% revised to -13.0%Building permits 22.1% vs +7.1% estimate Building permits can swing back and forth. It is hard to make judgments when the changes are double digit one way and the other. The good news is that there does need to be more housing in Canada (Adam harps on that). So the

Dow industrial average futures implying a gain of 28.25S&P futures implying a gain of +3.62 pointsNASDAQ futures implying a decline of -12.1 points. Yesterday the NASDAQ index led the gains with a rise of 2.17%. The S&P index rose 1.07%. Looking at the US debt market, yields are up by about 1 to 2 basis

There are quite a number to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered from 1.1000 through to 1.1050. That sort of keeps a lock on things until we get to the ECB later at least. That especially the extremely large one at the 1.1000 level,

Prior 227K; revised to 228K4-week moving average 231KPrior 230KContinuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expectedPrior 1.838M; revised to 1.845M The headline figure continues to keep somewhat steady but at least down from the high of 250K last month. Continuing claims rose slightly in the latest report but the 4-week moving average there continues to point lower

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 103 bps (87% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 64 bps (100% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today’s meeting) BoE: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 57 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

The GBPUSD moved lower after the US CPI data, and in the process broke below its 38.2% retracement of the August trading range at 1.30363. The next target was at the 1.3000 level followed by the rising 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.2971. The price only got to the 1.3000 level

Eurostoxx +1.2%Germany DAX +1.1%France CAC 40 +1.0%UK FTSE +1.1%Spain IBEX +1.1%Italy FTSE MIB +1.0% This comes with US futures also sitting higher on the day, with S&P 500 future up 0.2% currently. After a bit of a setback so far in September, the bounce today is most welcome for European indices. But we’ll see if

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The data triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just a 13% probability of a 50 bps cut

-0.2% m/m for a miss expected 0.0%, prior 0.3% 2.5% y/y, also a miss expected 2.8%, prior 3.0% Falling m/m wholesale inflation and lower than previous y/y. The rising yen may well have played a role in these results – check out the graph on the right, the import index. At the margin these data

This is different from what majority of economists are expecting, that to be just one more rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs now sees back-to-back moves for the BOE in November and then December. The firm had previously forecast one more rate cut in the final quarter for this year. I’m waiting to see if

US firms optimism in China has fallen to its lowest level everJPMorgan still expects a 50bp Federal Reserve interest rate cut next weekJapan wholesale inflation dipped due to lower commodity prices and a stronger yen – recap250bp of “shock and awe” rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve does not seem warrantedAustralia inflation expectations are

Prior +2.8%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% Core annual inflation is seen easing slightly again to 2.7% at least. That is down from 2.8% in July but still not quite there yet in terms of solidifying a base closer towards the 2% mark. It’s a slow grind and not just for Spain but most

Snapback day. Major indices close higher after trading sharply lower earlier in the day.Crude oil futures settled at $67.31Fed IG said Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostick violated Fed rules on tradingUS 30 year mortgage rates lowest in 20 months at 6.11%The US treasury auctions of $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of

Reuters poll: Three out of 10 firms see rate hike to 0.5% affecting fundraising plansJapan firms want next PM to tackle rising prices, fiscal reform (The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is set to hold an election on September 27 to pick its next leader who will become the prime minister) USD/JPY update, ticking a little

Today is going to be the busiest day of the week in terms of risk events on the agenda. The highlights include the ECB Rate Decision, the US Jobless Claims and the US PPI. 12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – ECB Policy Decision The ECB is expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate

No preset idea on the pace of further rate hikesBut unlike US and Europe, rate hikes are likely to be slow for JapanExact timing on when rates can reach 1% will depend on economic, price conditions at the timeData so far shows economy moving in line with forecast from July meeting Tamura earlier called to

This is mainly to further reduce borrowing costs and to try and bolster consumption activity. Domestic demand conditions in China have suffered greatly ever since the Covid pandemic and there hasn’t been much of a revival in that area despite the world returning back to normal. The report says that some banks are already making

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Citi cited concerns over economic growth: Moving underweight equities as growth dims furtherEconomic growth indicators continue to declineHard-landing fears have set-off rising cross-asset volatilityInflation moves back to long-term targetsOur model moves slightly short equities from max-long and overweight commodities (ex energy) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Info via Bloomberg of jumbo-sized interest rate cuts to come from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Citi were expecting a 50bp Fed Funds cut on September 18 but after the CPI data on Wednesday trimmed that back to now forecasting a 25bp rate cut: maintain their projection for 125bp of rate cuts by year

I posted earlier on Citi dropping its call for a 50bp rate cut next week to 25 bp. Analysts there do expect 50bp in November and December though: Citi are forecasting two 50bp interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve JP Morgan are sticking to its forecast for a 50bp rate cut next week

Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. — Card spending Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. This article was written

None of these releases are likely to shove major FX rates around too much upon release. JPY will swing around regardless, its what it does. Yesterday we had a BoJ official driving yen buying: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments While it isn’t shown on the schedule

Fed IG releases a report on 11 Fed Pres. Bostick and his financial disclosure: Says Bostick violated federal rules on tradingBostick created appearance of acting on confidential informationBostick created appearance of a conflict of interestThe report didn’t find evidence that Bostick traded on confidential information This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura delivers a speech. Japan’s neutral rate is likely to be around 1% at the minimumthe path towards ending easy policy is still very longWill carefully examine the pros and cons of exiting easy policy Must push up short-term rates at least to around 1% by latter half of

UK Incomes Data Research survey of wage growth: median pay settlement awarded by major employers dropped to 4.0% in the three months to July, the lowest since August 2022 and down from 4.8% in the three months to June Subdued wage growth, if a 4& quarterly gain can be so described, keeps the Bank of

This was out earlier, posting here for interest. Political tensions, China’s slowing economic growth, poor domestic demand, deflation, and fierce domestic competition are the backdrop to the results of this survey, Only 47% of US firms optimistic on 5-year outlook US firms profitable in China down to 66% in 2023 Geopolitical tension rated as biggest

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Raphael Bostic is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. A report by the Federal Reserve’s Office of Inspector General has raised suspicions of Bostic’s trading: Bostic “created an ‘appearance of acting on confidential FOMC information’ ‘appearance of a conflict of interest’ that could cause a reasonable person to question his impartiality”breached the FOMC’s

Crude oil prices have been very volatile today with the price first moving higher to a high of $67.58, then moving lower to a low at $65.63 before rotating back to the upside and making new high price up to $67.97. The high price today got within $0.16 of the falling 100 hour moving average

Westpac point out that while major downward revisions to US payrolls estimates have injected a little more urgency into the US situation over the last month, the pricing in of close to 250bps in cuts by this time next year in extreme: that sort of ‘shock and awe’ easing does not seem warranted WPAC is

Japanese ‘wholesale’ inflation levels eased back a little in August: Japan PPI (August) -0.2% m/m (expected +0.0%) and +2.5% y/y (expected +2.8%) The main drivers were lower commodity prices, falling utility prices, and the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Details showed that import prices dropped significantly falling to 2.6% YoY from 10.8% in July While

Earlier this week Arno had the intitial round of numbers showing slipping China car sales: China August passenger car sales down 1.1% y/y to 1.92 mln CPCA reports Follow-up numbers from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAA) were released on Wednesday. These were ven worse, showing that car sales in August dropped by 5.0%

Close to 40% of Gulf of Mexico oil production is shut due to Hurricane Francine. The storm is a category 1 with when so 90 mph and looking to make landfall on the Louisiana coast. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kim Jong Un grabbing the headlines again This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has moved higher today and in the process, has stretched toward the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August swing high. That retracement level comes in at 0.8517, and that is where sellers started to lean against of earlier today and on the most recent hourly bar. Getting above that level would

Japan Business Survey Index for Q3 2024: 4.5% prior -1.0% Earlier data: Japan PPI (August) -0.2% m/m (expected +0.0%) and +2.5% y/y (expected +2.8%) — Japan’s Quarterly Business Survey Index (BSI) measures the sentiment of business executives regarding the economic conditions in their industries. It is compiled by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office

NZD little changed — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealandthe FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items that represent the typical spending patterns of New Zealand

Data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICs) in the UK, its house price balance (this measures the difference between surveyors seeing falls and rises in house prices) for August 2024. Came in at +1, the strongest since January 2020 expected -14prior -18 GBP is little changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

ICYMI, Greg had the details earlier: Goldman Sachs Solomon on CNBC. Sees 2 maybe 3 cuts. Could see possibility of 50 BP cut Soloman said that while there is a case to be made for a 50bp cut, citing more softening in the labor market, he puts the probability of such a cut “in the

The NASDAQ index fell -238.04 point at session lows today. It is now flipped that decline and transact 244.18 points or up 1.43% at 17269.. That is quite a reversal The move back to the upside has taken the price back above its 100- day moving average at 17158.57 (blue line on the chart above).

Major US stock indices have extended the declines to the downside with the S&P index down -1.3%. The NASDAQ index is down -0.85% and the Dow industrial average is down -1.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also lower with a decline of -1.40%. US yields have moved back higher with the two year now down

The AUDUSD moved lower after the stronger core CPI data. On the break lower, the price moved below a cluster of technical levels including the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6653, the 100-day moving average of 0.6648, and the 38.2% retracement at 0.66422. That opened the door for further downward momentum,

Sector Overview The US stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable movements across various sectors. The technology sector showed bright spots, notably with Nvidia (NVDA) rising by an impressive 1.50%, highlighting investor confidence in semiconductors. Similarly, AMD (AMD) boosted the sector’s performance with a climb of 1.49%. Conversely, the automotive sector faced challenges,

There is a report that the US is closer to allowing Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia. Nvidia shares are trading up $4.72 or 4.3% at $112.80. Moreover shares are back above its 100 day moving average at $111.57. Shares of SMC are also rebounding strongly today with a gain of $20.85 or 5.02% to $432.96.

High Yield: 3.648% Previous: 3.96% Six-auction average: 4.314% WI level at the time of the Auction: 3.662% Tail: -1.4 basis points Previous: 3.1bps Six-auction average: 0.8bps Bid-to-Cover: 2.64X Previous: 2.32x Six-auction average: 2.48x Dealers: 10.25% Previous: 17.9% Six-auction average: 16.3% Directs: 13.7% Previous: 16.0% Six-auction average: 17.0% Indirects: 76.1% Previous: 66.2% Six-auction average: 66.7% AUCTION

The European indices are closing with mixed results for September 11. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.34%France’s CAC, -0.14%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.15%Spain’s Ibex +0.67%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.12% As London/European traders look to exit, the Dow leads the decline. The NASDAQ is now marginally higher in up and down trading. Dow industrial

Prior +1.6%Market index 233.7 vs 230.5 priorPurchase index 138.6 vs 136.1 priorRefinance index 757.8 vs 751.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.29% vs 6.43% prior The average rate of the most popular US home loan dips further to its lowest since February last year. That comes amid a further drop in rates overall and that is helping

The US treasury will auction off $39 billion a 10 year notes at the top of the hour. Recall from last month this auction was not all that great with a tail of 3.1 basis points and a bid to cover below the six-month average. Yesterday, the 3-year note auction was solid (I gave it

Fundamental Overview The Yen is having another good week as the USDJPY pair dropped to new lows as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the

US mortgage rates have moved to their lowest level in 20 months. The rate today moved to 6.11%. That is down from a high of 7.8% back on October 25, 2023. Today the weekly mortgage data was reported with the 30 year mortgage rate at 6.29% for the week. When applications rose 1.4% with the

The weekly oil inventories data shows: Crude oil 0.833M vs 0.987M estimateGasoline + 2.310M vs -0.109M estimateDistilates 2.308M vs 0.313M estimate Other details: Cushing -1.704M vs -1.142M last weekrefining utilization w/e -0.5% versus expected -0.7%.Crude production 13.3M vs 13.3M previous week Crude oil was trading at $66.69 just before the release. The price is currently

Harris vs. Trump Begins with Vice President Harris walking over to Trump (he does not walk over to her) and shakes his hand. I’ll post anything interesting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.2% Wall Street saw a mixed session with tech shares outperforming yesterday. But the mood music is all around softer today, as bonds are staying further bid. 10-year Treasury yields are down 2.5 bps to 3.62%, its lowest since June last year. S&P 500 futures

Citigroup now sees a 25 basis point rate cut in September down from 50 basis points prior to the CPI (and post the US jobs report last Friday). The CPI data did not do it. Although their expectations for September have been tempered, they still expect 50 basis point cuts in November and December. This

The US CPI data came in a little bit stronger-than-expected especially from the core inflation perspective. Shelter was to blame for most of the upside. Energy prices fell and are expected to fall further in the current month. US yields moved up by are coming off the high levels. The US dollar also moved higher

Headlines: Yields fall reverberates to broader markets to start the dayUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Expectations for a 50 bps cut remain aliveWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?BOJ’s Nakagawa: Hard to comment on timing of next rate hikeFed to cut rates by 25 bps at each of the remaining three policy meetings

A Reuters poll is out and the survey of 65 economist show: 49 of 65 see one more cut between now and year-end. 16 of 65 see 2 rate cutsUK inflation to average 2.6% in 2024inflation to average 2.3% in 2025 (same as August poll). For this month, the expectations is that the central bank

Goldman CEO David Solomon on CNBC says: Environment is actually okay for bank activitythere are places where it’s exhilaratingthe economy is still in great shapeThe likely scenario is that the Fed navigates with a soft landingCOnsumer is still healthy especially in the service sector.I found the CEO sect at consumer seminar is quite positive on

We’re already starting to see some notable market moves on the day ahead of European trading. I would argue the main culprit to be the bond market, after the move there yesterday. 10-year Treasury yields fell below the threshold of what might’ve resembled a short-term bottom around 3.67%. And that is continuing today, with yields

The bulls have been huffing and puffing over the last three weeks but they haven’t blown open the door for a stronger technical breakout yet. Gold price action has been consolidating in a bit of a range recently and the next trade is to arguably go with the break that comes. I’ll continue to point

Markets remain unstable and likely to stay that way for nowNeed to look at what is behind such volatility in marketsJapan economic progress is on track based on recent data as set out in JulyImportant to look at how economy, prices react to changes in short-term rates She is making sure that markets know about

Chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, says the country is definitely in deflation, probably going through the second stage of deflation. “Experience from Japan suggests that the longer deflation drags on, the more stimulus China will eventually need to break the debt-deflation challenge.” Xing citing falling wages. Earlier this week the CPI report

Taylor Swift IG post endorsing Harris ( the sign off is funny) Apologies for all the politics folks. Hopefully we can ignore it now for a few more weeks at least This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD trended higher in August taking the price from a low on August 8 of 1.26649 to a high of 1.32659 on August 28. Since then the price has wandered to the downside with fits of bounces along the way. On Friday, the price spiked back up to 1.32377 after the US jobs report

The US stocks are continuing their decline with the Dow now down 700 points or 1.70%. All the Dow 30 stocks are lower. The S&P index is down -88 points or -1.60% at 5408.87. That is getting closer to this 100 day moving average of 5391.77. The price move below its 100 day moving average

A snapshot of the markets are showing declines across the board. After 25 minutes of trading, Dow industrial average is down -45 to .31 points or -1.11% at 40284.65.S&P index is down -37.49 points or -0.68% at 5458.03.NASDAQ index is down -29.17 points or -0.17% at 16996.71. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -16.19 points

The USDCAD has traded down and back up today. The low price earliers today, moved below the 200-day MA at 1.3589 which was a tilt back to the downside after trading above that level yesterday. However, the price moved back higher in the European session and moved higher after the CPI data today. That move

We’ve had basically zero of substance on economic policies. There was some blather (from both) about tariffs introduced by Trump during his term, and not removed during the Biden admin. But that was about it. No detail. FX not doing much. USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Based on betting markets Harris has won the debate. Screenshot via Bloomberg: Harris wants to do it all again, unsurprisingly. In October. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% It’s a mixed start to the day as risk sentiment is nudging back and forth a little. S&P 500 futures are now down just 0.2% from around 0.5% earlier as well. But bond yields are holding lower, so that is keeping

I moved from New Jersey in August 2001 to Arizona. My work in NY at the time of the move took me to the WTC each day on my commute. My work office was 2 blocks north of the WTC complex. Part of the WTC complex fell into the buildings just south of our building.

The day after the presidential debate in the US, Russia’s Putin is getting his shot in by saying maybe Russia should think about export restrictions like uranium, titanium, and nickel important commodities exported from Russia. Trump said that he would solve the Ukraine- Russia conflict before he took office in January if elected. Harris said

The bond market is in the driver’s seat and traders don’t seem to want to wait around for the Fed next week. 10-year Treasury yields have now dropped to its lowest since June last year and 2-year yields are threatening an even bigger level on the charts now: Things are certainly heating up on the

Prior month 2.9%CPI MoM 0.2% versus 0.2% expectedMonth over Month unrounded 0.187% Core measures: Core CPI YoY 3.2% vs 3.2% expected.Core CPI MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% expectedCore unrounded 0.281%real weekly earnings +0.5% versus -0.2% last monthshelter inflation rose by 0.5%food increase by 0.1% after rising 0.2% in JulytHE index for food away from home rose

The US yields are trading at new session lows. The two-year is trading at 3.598%. That’s the lowest level going back to March 2023. The 10 year yield is an 3.642%. That’s its lowest level going back to June 2023. The low in yields has the USDJPY also extending back toward session lows for the

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the markets on the release, but

Nikkei with the info: Honda Motor will reduce the number of employees at its joint venture with Chinese automaker Dongfeng Motor Group focusing in particular on workers at its three factories that produce gasoline-powered cars. And, via Bloomberg: Honda will suspend production at 3 plants for 2 weeksInventory adjustment This article was written by Eamonn

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa spoke earlier here: BOJ’s Nakagawa speaks on one-sided yen falls He has sent the yen higher. USD/JPY dropped down towards 141.50 and has since bounced back towards 142.00. Nakagawa said, amongst much lease: real interest rates remain deeply negative, accommodative monetary conditions maintainedBOJ likely to adjust degree

The European session is once again empty and all the focus will be on the US CPI report in the American session. Inflation data is now less important than the labour market and growth data, but it could still have a say in the market’s pricing, especially for the next week’s FOMC decision. 12:30 GMT/08:30

Treasuries are keeping strongly bid so far this week and we’re seeing some key levels being challenged. 10-year yields are down to their lowest since June last year, down to 3.61% currently. Meanwhile, 2-year yields are down to their lowest in almost two years as it falls by nearly 5 bps today to 3.56% now:

The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is lower ahead of the US CPI data. Stocks (in premarket trading) and bond yields are also lower to start the US session. The consensus on the headline number is +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y. The

For August, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations are for a Headlined CPI 0.2% month-over-month (M/M) change (previously 0.2%), Annual headline CPI rate expected to ease to 2.6% year-over-year (Y/Y) from 2.9%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is also expected to rise -0.2% M/M (previously 0.2%), The annual core CPI rate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

92 of 101 economists expect a 25 bps rate cut next week65 of 95 economists expect three 25 bps rate cuts for the remainder of the year54 of 71 economists believe that the Fed cutting by 50 bps at any of the meetings as ‘unlikely’ On the final point, five other economists believe that a

Prior 0.0%Services +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -0.1%Industrial output -0.8% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior +0.8%Manufacturing output -1.0% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +1.1%Construction output -0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expectedPrior +0.5% The readings above are all a miss on estimates, as the UK economy stagnated in the month of July. Looking at the breakdown, services contributed 0.11%

In the long-running battle between stocks and bonds, the latter is usually right when it comes to the economy. Given that oil and the yen are also flagging trouble, the signs are hard to ignore. In early August, when US yields fell, it looked like a reaction to a flight-to-safety as some air came out

Goldman Sachs says that the US stock market may fall by the end of the year, citing the drag from: high valuations mixed growth prospects policy uncertainty But, say analysts, the probability of a bear market is low given the support for the economy from a healthy private sector. Also, support from Federal Open Market

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, the Russell 2000 sold off following the weaker than expected NFP report even though the details were better than the prior month. The technical break below the key support around the 2120 level eventually increased the bearish momentum. The market has become very sensitive to soft growth and labour market data.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Posting this as a bit of a catch-up, it seems to have gotten lost somewhere. Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company Saudi Aramco cut prices to Asia, Europe and the US. October pricing for Arab Light crude oil to Asia cut by 70cents / barrel Saudi Aramco also lowered the price of Arab Light to Northwest

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the markets on the release, but

Harris’ performance is being judged favourably my markets: US yields dripping lowerEUR higher Two caveats: we are only half way thoughothers may have a different take This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

OPEC’s monthly oil market report was published on September 10. The cartel slahsed demand estimates again. oil demand will grow by 2 million b/d in 2024this is down 80,000 b/d from the forecast in Augustfor 2025, demand will rise a further 1.7 million b/d, a 40,000 b/d downward revision OPEC has lowered its “call on

The pricing there is reflected in the fall in bond yields this week, with 10-year Treasury yields now hitting its lowest since June last year. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut next week now stands at ~35%, up from around ~25% early Monday. It’s still down from the near coin flip odds prior

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. Again, if anything else, it will help to act as a bit of a floor to price action before rolling off later in the day. That said, just be wary that

Analysts at MUFG say that it will be important that the data remain consistent with slowing inflation to support current Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations. What arguing that one month of stronger inflation data in August would not stop the Fed from cutting rates next week, they say that such a result would cast

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia is speaking at an investment bank, Barrenjoey, event here in Australia. As part of the panel Hunter is speaking on Barrenjoey says its research shows a ‘reasonable’ amount of the government’s stage 3 tax cuts are being saved, not spent. It was feared that

US politics – Taylor Swift says she will be voting for HarrisUS Vice President Harris’ campaign is pushing for a second debate with TrumpBank of Japan Nakagawa says ready to raise rates if inflation on track – recapHalf way through the debate and US Treasuries are rallying. EUR higher alsoUSD/JPY has dropped under 142.00 on

We have Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia speaking today. I’ve added it to the screenshot below, and I posted a little on what to listen out for earlier: AUD traders heads up – RBA (Hunter) speaking on Wednesday After Hunter the calendar gets very bleak … why do I

BOC’s Macklem: Bigger cuts are possile if economy and CPI weakerMacklem Q&A: Employment is not negative but is well below population growthBOC’s Macklem: Trade disruptions may mean larger deviations from our targetBank of Japan officials see little need to hike ratesUS Treasury auctions $58B of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.440%Fed’s Barr

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia spoke earlier: RBA’s Hunter says the Australian labour market is still tight relative to full employment Q&A now (part of a panel discussion): Australia’s economy heading into turning pointTurning points are inherently challenging and difficultHouseholds are certainly being squeezed This article was written by

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa: One-sided yen falls subsided somewhat but rising import prices could affect consumer inflation with a lag Prolonged inflation overseas could put upward pressure on Japan’s import prices Must be mindful of impact of overseas, domestic market moves on Japan’s inflation Japan’s exports, output likely to resume uptrend

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Wall Street Journal Fed watcher Nick Timiraos collated the forecasts. Very handy indeed: Previews: US CPI preview: Inflation expected to fall to the lowest since 2021MUFG expect a higher US dollar if CPI shows an unexpected rise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The broader stock indices closed higher for the second consecutive day this week. The gains were led by the Nasdaq index which tumbled -5.77% last week. After 2-days this week, the index is up 2.01%. The S&P which fell -4.25% last week, is up 1.61% after Monday and Tuesday. The Dow industrial average fell today

As inflation in the US ramped and then rolled over, it was typical to get massive market moves on CPI data but as prices have cooled, so has the market reaction. Unfortunately, the magic is gone — and now rests with non-farm payrolls as the Fed focuses on its employment mandate — but it’s still

Adam posted on this during the US session: Bank of Japan officials see little need to hike rates The report comes via Bloomberg (gated) who say: Bank of Japan officials see little need to raise the benchmark rate when board members gather next weekthey’re still monitoring lingering volatility in financial markets and the impact of

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.0 mn barrelsDistillates +0.3 mn bblsGasoline -0.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Nakagawa is a member of the Bank of Japan monetary policy board. Nakagawa spoke earlier, clearly indicating the rate hikes are not done: BOJ’s Nakagawa speaks on one-sided yen fallsUSD/JPY has dropped under 142.00 on BOJ Nakagawa comments Main points, in summary: Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if inflation moves in

The Canadian dollar is the weakest performer today and if you read between the lines in Tiff Macklem’s comments, the Bank of Canada is trying to put the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in October on the table, particularly if upcoming GDP reports highlight ongoing weakness. A big reason that they need to

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia Labour market still tight relative to full employment Labour market has moved towards better balance since late 2022 Easing in labour market similar to past mild downturns Some slowing in labour demand to occur via drop in average hours Expect employment to continue to

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey: September manufacturers sentiment +4, August was +10September non-manufacturers sentiment +23 vs +24 in AugustDecember manufacturers index seen at +3, non-manufacturers at +27 Sentiment at non-manufacturers fell for the third consecutive month to its lowest in a year Business confidence at

On what to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): “The long-awaited Fed easing cycle is upon us, but the FOMC will be cautious after the inflation challenges of the past few years. The pace of rate cuts will be gentle and monetary easing won’t do much to boost growth next year”We expect 25bp

Dr. Copper hasn’t been in a good mood since May, when a speculative squeeze drove it to $5 followed by a sharp turn lower. It’s currently flirting with $4 as the market frets about a global growth slowdown. Given the price action in bonds, JPY and oil, I think a further slowdown is a material

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The first of 3 coupon auctions for the week will start today at 1 PM when the US treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3-year notes. The treasury will auction off 10-year notes tomorrow and 30-year bonds on Thursday. The note auction success (or failure) will be judged by the results vs the 6 month

High Yield:3.440% Previous: 3.81% WI Level at the time of the auction: 3.457% Tail: -1.7 bs Previous: -0.2bps Six-auction average: 0.1bps Bid-to-Cover: 2.66X Previous: 2.55x Six-auction average: 2.56x Dealers:10.45% Previous: 15.4% Six-auction average: 16.4% Directs (a measure of domestic demand):11.3% Previous: 20.3% Six-auction average: 18.8% Indirects (a measure of international demand):78.24% Previous: 64.4% Six-auction average:

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Prior +2.3%HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelimPrior +2.6% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.8% year-on-year in August, so there is still some work to do to get that down. But overall, this still will give the ECB some room to work with in arguing for a rate cut once every quarter. At least for

After a trend-like move like we saw to the upside in August, the price of the NZDUSD has been correcting lower over the last 9 or so trading days. The price action on Friday after the US jobs report saw a spike higher to swing area resistance at 0.6253, but then reversed lower, and fell

It wasn’t a pretty one for European stock markets today: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.9%Francis CAC -0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.7%Spain’s IBEX -0.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.0% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It is not too uncommon to see the ECB not hog the spotlight during policy decision weeks. But when it is accompanied by a change in rates, that is a bit uncommon. This week though will be one of those weeks, as the ECB has already well telegraphed a 25 bps rate cut for this

The Fed is in the blackout period but Barr is commenting on Basel capital rules for banks. Earlier this week it was reported that the rules will be watered down after donations lobbying from big banks. New Basel draft will revise all major areas of original plans following industry criticismFed will propose updating G-sib surcharge

The US economic calendar is bare today save for a three-year auction but China released import data earlier today and it showed growth of just 0.5% y/y compared to 2.0% expected. That’s a sharp slowdown from the +7.2% y/y rise in July. The global manufacturing cycle starts in China and orders for imports are based

WTI now has a $65 handle. It’s down 4% on the day or $2.75 to $65.96, which is the worst level since May 2023. It’s traded down here on a handful of days in 2023 but if it finishes here it would be the worst close since December 2021. Needless to day, it’s not a

In the kickstart video for September 10, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, the price action has been up-and-down with the low prices from the Asian and early US session testing the low price from last week

On the day: S&P 500 +1.2%Nasdaq Comp +1.1%DJIA +1.2%Russell 2000 +0.4%Toronto TSX Comp +1.1% These gains aren’t enough to recoup Friday’s losses and last week’s big decline but it’s a good start. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF moved above the 100 and 200 hour MAs yesterday tilting the short term bias to the upside. The modest upside momentum, took the price up toward the next target – the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (see higher blue line on the chart below). What happened? Sellers leaned against that MA

Bank of Japan officials see little need to raise the benchmark rate at the Sept 20 meeting, according to people familiar cited by Bloomberg. The report was out earlier and comes as no surprise given the market is pricing in virtually no chance of a move in Sept or October. “The bank needs to carefully

US equities are back to flat and the dollar and yen are broadly bid on rising risk aversion. The worst victim at the moment is oil, which is down $2.44 to $66.26 as the bulls throw in the towel after OPEC cut demand forecasts today. Bonds are bid despite a three-year sale today that will

Does not believe that private consumption has recovered strongly yetWill aim to achieve conditions where wages grow sustainably so can fully exit from deflation The leadership race should likely come down to a battle between Ishiba and current digital minister, Tara Kono. For some context, Kono also ran for the post back in 2021 but

Fed Governor Barr is expected to announce the new measures in a speech on September 10: Fed to halve biggest banks’ capital hike in latest Basel planFED, FDIC, OCC poised to unveil changes as soon as September 19Top banks face 9% increase in revised plan from 19% earlier Headlines come via Bloomberg — At 1400

Fundamental Overview The markets have been waiting for the US NFP to provide a clear signal for either a 25 or 50 bps cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but instead we got a mixed report with some better details under the hood. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and

The major US stock indices have seen a run lower over the last hour or so of trading. The move lower now has the Dow down around -400 points or 1%. It was up 134 points at session highs. The S&P is down -23.36 points or -0.42%. At highs the index was up 24.08 pointsThe

Chinese trade data is usually of interest. Expectations for the data today are for lower y/y result for both exports and imports. If exports come in as expected it’ll be the slowest growth in 4 months. There was a narrative about that exports would surge ahead of increased trade barriers, which has not turned out

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% UK stocks are the ones lagging as the labour market data affirms that at the balance, the BOE can keep policy steady next week. That despite wages continuing to cool, both in nominal and real terms. Anyway, equities are keeping more

The USDCAD is tilting higher technically even though a lot of the price action on Monday and agains today, is more up and down. WHat is encouraging for the buyers – at least in the short term – is the low prices yesterday, held support against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (see

The US stock market is buzzing today with impressive gains, particularly in the technology sector, as software and internet giants drive the rally. A closer inspection of the heatmap reveals interesting dynamics across various sectors. 📈 Technology Sector: Leading the Charge Microsoft (MSFT) is up by 0.69%, reflecting robust investor confidence in software infrastructure.Nvidia (NVDA)

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. If anything else, it will just act as a slight magnet or at most a floor for price action before rolling off in the session ahead. But given the

Today, the only notable event in the European session was the UK Labour Market report. The next notable data point will be the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index which is released a couple of hours before the start of the American session. 10:00 GMT/06:00 ET – US August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The

Businesses are hiring much more slowly than people are entering the work forceYouth unemployment has gone up a lotWe have very high rates of immigrationIf we were to see a rise in unemployment, that would be a concernIt’s reasonable to expect further rate cuts This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The street-low year-end forecast for the euro is 1.02 from Morgan Stanley. G10 FX strategist David Adams spoke in an interview with Bloomberg today highlighting the call. “There is plenty of scope for the market to refocus on the fact that the ECB could be cutting deeper and faster than what is currently priced,” said

The AUDUSD yesterday moved down to test a cluster of support defined by the 200 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart,100 day moving average, and the 38.2% retracement of the August trading range All those levels come between 0.6642 and 0.66499 (call it 0.6650). Getting below that level would have traders looking down

As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest . The USD is mostly, but modestly lower. Stocks are little changed after gains yesterday clawed back some of Friday’s declines. European shares are mixed/little changed. The US yields to start the US session are up by above

The Canadian housing market is struggling and the economy was flat in June and July. The market is fully priced for a 25 bps cut at the Oct 23 meeting with virtually no chance of 50 bps but that could swing with some softer data. For the subsequent meeting, there is 61 bps priced in,

The dollar has seen some steadier tones in the last few sessions but USD/JPY endured a bit more of a mix of fortunes. The pair was down on Friday as bond yields fell but rebounded in trading yesterday. The bounce is keeping up somewhat today, with the pair now up 0.2% to just above 143.50.

Headlines on this are here from earlier: The changes proposed for the Board of the RBA have failed Adding a little more detail, this via Reuters reporting: The reforms, which were recommended by an independent review last year, included setting up a separate governance board to complement the current monetary policy board. The nine-member rate-setting

As a reminder, the debate will take place later in the day at 9pm EDT (or 0100 GMT the next day). I shared some thoughts previously in this post here: Just a week to go until the next US presidential debate As with these things, it often comes down to how things are said rather

US major indices are mixed in early trading. The Dow industrial average is mostly lower, but the S&P and NASDAQ indices are higher. The Russell 2000 is also trading lower in the first few minutes of trading. A snapshot of the market seven minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average, -41.52 points or

New York Fed: 1 year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.0%.3-year up to 2.5% from 2.3%US wholesale sales +1.1% vs +0.2% expectedUS August employment trends 109.04 vs 109.61 priorCitigroup CFO Mason: Feels good about consumer and corporate balance sheetsAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 comes in at 2.5%Mark Carney will head Liberal advisory task forceUS

New Zealand manufacturing sales rose in second quarter: +0.6% q/q vs the -0.4% in Q1 NZD/USD little changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Two weeks ago Morgan Stanley lowered their Brent crude oil forecast to $80 / barrel. Now they’ve cut it even further: now expecting an average $75 a barrel in Q4 of 2024 Citing demand headwinds: “considerable demand weakness”signals are of “recession-like inventory builds” On supply: oil market to remain tight through Q3potential move into surplus

The key change for the Board of the RBA was the proposal to split the existing RBA board into separate groups for interest rate-setting and governance. The board split was supposed to come into effect on July 1 Australian Treasurer Chalmers was driving the proposed changes but has said he wanted bipartisan support. The measure

Trade disruptions also increase variability of inflationWe have to focus on risk management, balancing upside risks to inflation with downside risks to economic growthCost of global goods many not fall as fast as globalization, and that could put more upward pressure on inflationGlobal trade has slowed and that is a big concern for CanadaThe growth

Prior 4.2%Employment change 265k vs 123k expectedPrior 97kAverage weekly earnings +4.0% vs +4.1% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.5%; revised to +4.6%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.1% vs +5.1% 3m/yexpectedPrior +5.4%August payrolls change -59kPrior 24k; revised to -6k The jobless rate ticks a little lower with employment change beating estimates in July. However, payrolls for August declined further

Fundamental Overview The NFP report on Friday gave the USD a boost as the data under the hood was better than feared. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and they are now standing around 27%. A soft US CPI report tomorrow might increase those probabilities a little bit, but we

This erases the jump from the previous month and is the 32nd straight month that the index remains below its 50-year average of 98. Looking at the details, the most notable is a jump in the uncertainty index to 92 – up 2 points from July. That’s the highest reading since October 2020. It is

An interesting snippet from Deutsche Bank, expecting 25bp rate cuts ahead, but read on for the “however”. DB say that while Friday’s … payrolls report was disappointing: the data did not rise to the “significant deterioration” Waller noted was needed for larger (50bp) rate cuts. So our economists keep to their expectations for a 25bps

Fundamental Overview It’s been a brutal month for crude oil as renewed growth fears pushed the market into new lows. The negative supply news from Libya and Iraq, and the delay by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t help much to slow down the bearish momentum. The markets have been waiting for the US

Given Hunter’s role at the Reserve Bank of Australia I expect there will be comments of pertinence to traders. The RBA is focusing on bringing inflation back to target. The target band is 2-3% and 2.5% is the aim. The flip side of the mandate is to try to preserve as much of the gain

The ECB meets later this week, what to expect?US August NFIB small business optimism index 91.2 vs 93.7 priorIt’s debate night in the USA short-term bottom for USD/JPY?European equities open slightly lower to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures -0.3% in early European tradingUK July ILO unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.1%

Fundamental Overview The NFP report on Friday gave the USD a boost as the data under the hood was better than feared. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and they are now standing around 27%. A soft US CPI report tomorrow might increase those probabilities a little bit, but we

National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for August 2024 Business Confidence -4, lowest for the year so far prior +1 Business Conditions +3 prior +6conditions to the lowest in 2-1/2 yearsemployment index came in at +1, sharply down from +7 in July Inflation indicators: growth in labour costs quarterly rate of +1.7% (from July’s

Bloomberg (gated) carried info on the note from Morgan Stanley an initial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut of more than 25 basis points could support the yenwould fuel further pulling out of US assets by Japan, ie. “The yen carry-trade unwind may still be a risk factor behind the scenes”“A quick drop in US

Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell from August to September, to 84.6 prior 85.0 WPAC comment: “The pessimism that has dominated for over two years now is still showing no real signs of lifting””While cost-of-living pressures are becoming a little less intense and fears of further interest rate rises have eased, consumers are becoming

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The European Central Bank meet on Thursday, September 12. A rate cut is widely expected. inflation is nearing 2%, and longer-term forecasts stable around 2%the recent flow of data is showing the economic outlook weakening The meeting will bring updated European Central Bank macroeconomic forecasts downward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.4% It’s still early in the day but equities are cooling off after the better start to the week yesterday. S&P 500 futures are also down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.4% and Dow futures also down 0.2% currently. There won’t be much to shake things up in the

Eyes remain on the bond market this week as strengthening demand for safety runs into rising supply. The ability of the market to digest rates at the lowest levels of the year will be tested again this week with elections coming up over the next three days: Tuesday – $58 billion of 3sWednesday $39 billion

South Korea has designated October 1 as ‘Armed Forces Day’, and a temporary holiday. The move is intended to boost domestic consumption, and troop morale. Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) KOSDAQETF, derivatives markets and commodity markets will all be closed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CNBC refer to a note from Barclays. Analysts at the bank assert that the US jobs markets is “showing no sign of the rapid deterioration that would call for a 50bp Fed cut this month”. The forecast is for FOMC rate cuts of 25bp at the next three meetings: September 17 and 18November 6 and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

After the US jobs report last week, the big picture focus in markets is now on major central bank decisions. In particular, the Fed next week will be the most anticipated one. The odds for a 50 bps rate cut are now at ~29% and down from roughly a coin flip at one point last

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England leader Mark Carney is wading into politics. He’s been rumored to be circling Justin Trudeau’s Liberals for awhile and now he will chair a Liberal Party task force advising the government. He will advise on how to “develop and shape ideas for the next phase of Canada’s

The greenback held its ground somewhat on Friday last week as risk sentiment retreated. But as the latter recovered a little yesterday, the dollar also managed to squeeze in some gains to start the week. USD/JPY is back up above 143.00 as 10-year Treasury yields continue to stay afloat just above the 3.70% mark. That

In dollar terms, China saw exports grew at a pace of 8.7% year-on-year in August. That’s the quickest since March last year. However, imports remain depressing and that arguably owes to a continued poor state in terms of domestic demand. Anyway, here’s the breakdown for those interested (h/t @ Reuters): This article was written by

A snippet preview from ING on what to watch for the Chinese trade data due today: We are looking for trade growth to continue to slow on the month, and we are forecasting export growth of around 5% YoY and import growth of around 3% YoY for a trade balance of USD 74.9 bn. This

Bitcoin was looking ugly on Friday as it broke down to $52,500 but the dip buyers stepped up on the weekend and are continuing to buy today as the risk trade improves. The rally to $56,700 is nearly back to Friday’s high of $56,995 and that’s going to offer some resistance here. Zooming out, the

Big promises from one of the runners to be new Prime Minister: Kato: sees exit from deflation on horizonmust compile stimulus package backed by a bold supplementary budget at an early datestimulus package should include spending for reconstruction from the Noto earthquake and typhoonpackage should contain to prompt higher wage Kato talks of doubling wages.

AUD traders heads up – RBA (Hunter) speaking on WednesdaySouth Korean stock markets to close for a temporary holiday (October 1)Two items to watch in China’s trade balance data due soonAustralian August business confidence -4 vs. prior +1South Korea warn that rapid pick-up in household debt may turn into systemic risk.PBOC sets USD/ CNY central

Yuan-denominated exports +8.4% y/yYuan-denominated imports 0% y/yDollar-denominated exports +8.7% y/yDollar-denominated imports +0.5% y/y This compares to the July figures here. Looking to the specifics, China recorded a $33.8 billion surplus with the US for the month of August. As for year-to-date, that figure stands at $224.6 billion. Meanwhile, steel products exports were seen at 9.5

Info via Reuters: South Korea’s financial watchdog chief on Tuesday expressed concern about a rapid pick-up in household debt and said such financial imbalance may turn into systemic risk. “There are concerns that it may turn into a systemic risk, as financial imbalances accumulate and soundness deteriorates should home prices undergo correction” South Korea has

Analysts at BCA are expecting a recession for Europe early in 2025: “Our conviction that a recession will engulf Europe early next year is strengthening.” Citing: Leading global growth indicators continue to deteriorateweakening economic activity aheadsteepening of the yield curve, the rebound in the VIX, the continued weakening of carry trades, and the relapse of

Prior was +8.93B (revised to +5.23B) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs on China’s (improving) economy, citing 3 stronger signs: fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks 1. Fiscal easing – GS see signs this has recommenced in recent weeks 2. Export momentum is strong (an interesting point, it’ll be tested today: Economic calendar in Asia 10 September 2024 – Chinese trade data

· Why have Gold prices risen to record highs? · Federal Reserve rate cut expectations · Safe haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty · Central bank buying · Trading Gold with PXBT Gold prices have been on a tear this year, rising for seven straight months. The precious metal trades 21% higher year to date, reaching

Goldman Sachs expresses caution on holding tactical long positions in the Japanese yen (ie short USD/JPY) in the near term, despite its attractiveness as a hedge against a slowing US economy and potential recession risks. Key Points: Economic Context: US Economy: Slowing economic conditions and increased recession risks make the Yen a favorable hedge.Macro Forecasts:

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 growth rises to 2.5% from 2.1% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on September 9, up from 2.1 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the

The AUDUSD moved lower on Friday helped by risk-off sentiment from the tumble in US stocks. In trading today, selling has continued after a rise in the early Asian session. The fall has taken the price of the AUDUSD to a key technical support level defined by three separate technical tools: The 38.2% retracement of

BofA anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement a 25 basis point (bp) cut to the deposit rate at its September meeting, with a modestly negative impact on the EUR due to unchanged guidance and weaker growth outlook. Key Points: Rate Cut Expectation: Deposit Rate: Expected to be reduced by 25bp.Other Policy Rates: Likely

RoboMarkets group is announcing strategic changes to its European business model, which are planned to be implemented by the end of 2024. In a press release, the group stated: “Given the conditions of the European market, we have decided to focus our European operations and expertise on serving primarily stock investors and traders.” As part

Crude oil futures are trading to new session high, up $1.20 or 1.77% at $68.87. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is moving back toward the falling 100 hour moving average. That level comes in at $69.43. The price fell below that moving average on Friday, August 30, and has trended to the downside

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 111 bps (75% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 61 bps (97% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 44 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 59 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming

The Fed is in the blackout period until after the FOMC decision and the US economic calendar is light today, featuring only wholesale inventories and employment trends. That will give the market a chance to catch its breath after a hectic week to start the month. It’s also a chance to look abroad and digest

Dynamic Gains in Technology and Consumer Cyclicals Diving into today’s market activity reveals a robust uptrend led by the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. Powered by standout performances from tech giant Nvidia and retail behemoth Amazon, investors are witnessing a wave of optimism across these key areas. 📈 Technology Sector: Tech Titans Take Charge Nvidia

The USDCAD moved higher on Friday helped by weaker Canadian jobs report. The unemployment rate rose from 6.4% to 6.6%. That took the rate to the highest level since 2017 if you exclude the Covid spike from 2020/2021. Looking at the USDCAD, it moved above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart on

The data is here: China August 2024 CPI +0.6% y/y (expected +0.7%) As a recap: consumer inflation picked up, rose for a seventh consecutive monthCPI was below expectationsthe month saw supply constraints caused by abnormal weatherbut concern persists over limp demand Core CPI (strips out food and energy prices) rose 0.3% y/y, a second consecutive

Citigroup CFO Mark Mason is speaking on the state of banking and with it the economy. He says: Feels good about consumer corporate balance sheetsExpect a soft landing with the decline in rates consumer payment rates are coming downHave seen a pickup and revolving credit and credit card customersCredit card customers are moving from discretionary

The NZDUSD continued its run to the downside in trading today after sharp declines on Friday helped by the risk-off sentiment on stock selling, and lower commodities. The down momentum continued today and carried the price down toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low to the August high. That level

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius spoke on CNBC after the jobs report on Friday. said “there is a rationale” for a 50bp rate cutbut 25bp is more likelyforecasts three consecutive cuts beginning this month One caveat: “the Fed leadership is open to 50bp cuts at subsequent meetings if the labor market continues to deteriorate.”

Sentiment has continued to improve the deeper we’ve gone through the early EU session. Equity futures have built on their early morning gains, and commodities like copper continue to grind higher. News flow has been very light on the fundamental side, but markets are still digesting Friday’s data and what it means for the Fed.

Chinese inflation data, both CPI and PPI, for August 2024. The m/m PPI is -0.7% (prior -0.2%) The CPI is a slight miss on both the y/y and m/m. But the PPI is a shocker of a miss on both. Real rates in China re weighing on demand. And yet the People’s Bank of China

This isn’t a market moving report because it’s a composite of data that’s already released but it’s a good view of how the labor market has returned to 2019 levels. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing the day higher, led by the UK’s FTSE 100. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.71%France’s CAC +0.99%UK’s FTSE 100 +1.09%Spain’s Ibex +0.89%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.90% last week, major indices closed lower: German DAX -3.0%France’s CAC -3.65%UK’s FTSE 100 -2.33%Spain’s Ibex, -2.01%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -3.15% This article

New York Fed survey shows Inflation Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% (one-year) and 2.8% (five-year).Three-year median inflation expectations increased from 2.3% in July to 2.5%.Disagreement among respondents on inflation expectations widened at all three horizons.Inflation uncertainty remained unchanged for one-year and declined for three- and five-year horizons.Median home price growth expectations increased to

A broad consensus in Canada has emerged and it’s inevitably going to wipe on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party: Canada is bringing in far too many people and can’t build the housing or infrastructure to support them. Young people are brutally feeling the squeeze with Friday’s jobs report showing the unemployment rate

Prior was -0.6% (revised to -0.3%)Inventories +0.2% vs +0.3% expectedPrior inventories -0.6% This is a good number and points to some decent growth still ongoing in the US, note the revision higher as well. Inventories are a slight drag but if sales keep up, they will improve later. Overall though, this is a low-tier indicator.

I posted very early this morning on the warning issued by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC): Oil traders heads up – NHC issues forecast Gulf of Mexico hurricane That’s being cited in various reports for the oil price jump we’ve had since: I’m not going betting the farm on hits, as I said in

Fundamental Overview The USDJPY pair eventually dropped back to the August low as a series of soft US data pushed Treasury yields lower giving the JPY a boost. The NFP report on Friday wasn’t bad, on the contrary, the data under the hood was better than the prior month. Nevertheless, the trend in the labour

Russia coal exports to China down 8% y/y to 45 million tons in H1 2024, no sharp growth expected, TASS cites Russia Energy Minister saying.Russian Energy Ministry expects coal exports to China to increase to at least 100 million tons starting 2025, TASS reports. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

A few equity indexes are starting to look like this chart, from 2007. Back then the problems in US housing were starting to mount and in July/August we got a sharp selloff in stocks, including 7% in the S&P 500. Then, it recovered to touch a marginal new record high that autumn, and ultimately the

NHC says increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

NHC says disturbance expected to become a tropical storm later today, risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week.NHC says risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week. This article was written by Arno V Venter at

Jim Reid at Deutschebank makes a great point in a note today. He illustrates that US unemployment has risen to 4.2% from 3.4% almost entirely due to people entering or re-entering the labor force. Then goes on to warn that it can quickly change to something problematic. A look at the past 13 recessions shows

U.S. Equity Strategy: BofA Global Research cuts energy sector to market weight from overweight. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Swedish housing price: 47% vs 43% prior Swedish housing price increase: 58% vs 55% prior Swedish housing price decrease: 11% vs 12% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The USD/CHF is trending higher today after hitting its lowest level of 2024 on Friday, followed by a strong rebound. The price action has seen the pair move above the 100-hour moving average at 0.8464 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.8470. Staying above these levels would give buyers some control, at least in the

Markets are attempting to make a bit of a recovery in risk following Friday’s NFP. However, it seems like markets have a lot to digest right now, and even though the data should have been enough to convince markets that 50bp cuts are not necessary (in my opinion at least), money markets are sticking to

Russian forces attacked energy facilities in 7 regions in the past day, Ukraine’s Energy Ministry says. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan LDP’s Takaichi: Japan’s inflation, when excluding external factors, still weak.Japan LDP’s Takaichi: Cannot say Japan has stably achieved BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Follows on from earlier comments from Takaichi earlier in the session. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

S&P Global expects OPEC+ to start oil output increases next year This’ll be the first time in a couple of years. Reuters rep[orting on comments from Jim Burkhard, vice president of research at S&P Global Commodity Insights. He was speaking at the APPEC conference: “There’s a lot of pressure in some of these countries to

The CAD is the strongest (closely followed by the USD) and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. Stocks are higher and yields are also higher, reversing some of the declines from Friday (last week). It is the day after the US jobs report which showed a gain of 114K jobs

China’s Xi urges stronger ties and fair business environment with SpainGerman Finance Minister backs Draghi’s growth focus but not joint EU borrowingSentiment continues to improve through the sessionDraghi urges EU to boost spending by €750B and calls for joint debt issuanceChina seeks public input on carbon trading plan for cement steel and aluminium sectorsNHC warns

EU Sentix Index: -15.4 vs 12.5 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Dutch Economic Affairs Ministry will have to study Draghi report.Dutch Economic Affairs Ministry says extra public investments should not be an end in itself.Dutch Economic Affairs Ministry says agrees with Draghi on reducing regulatory burden. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Mario Draghi: The EU must spend an additional €750B/year to compete globally. Mario Draghi calls for the EU to move towards regular joint debt issuance. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are off to a solid start to the trading week after the declines last week. The NASDAQ index tumbled -5.77% which was at a worst trading week since January 2022. The S&P index fell -4.25% it was the week since March 2023. They Dow industrial average fell -2.93% which was

Friday employment day in the US, led to volatile up and down price action in the major currency pairs. Today, the USD is trading higher (EURUSD and GBPUSD are lower while the USDJPY is higher) but the greenback is coming off highs. In this video, I look at the technicals that are driving those 3

JP Morgan’s Chief US Economist Michael Feroli on the US consumer: slower income growth could prove a headwind to consumer spending growththis has been the engine powering the economy in recent quarterspolicy is restrictive downside employment risks are growing upside inflation risks are ebbing Recommends a 50bp Fed Funds rate cut: we still think cutting

China’s Finance Ministry: Will issue up to 2 bln euros of euro sovereign bonds in Paris on Sept 23. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan ruling LDP lawmaker Takaichi: Strategic deployment of fiscal spending will increase jobs, household income, and boost tax revenue without raising tax rate. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

German Finance Minister Lindner on Draghi report: We need to work on mobilizing the growth forces of the private sector.German Finance Minister Lindner on Draghi report: Welcome all of Mr. Draghi’s proposals that point in this direction.German Finance Minister Lindner on Draghi report: However, joint borrowing by the EU will not solve the structural problems.

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, we have a pretty empty calendar today. We’ll just get the NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations in the American session but that’s not a market moving event, and in any case not only the data normalised to pre-pandemic levels but the Fed is not even focused on inflation

Today’s FX option expiries via Newsquawk: This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

CBS had this news, of geopolitical concern. In summary: Two NATO members, Romania and Latvia, reported Russian drones violating their airspace.A drone entered Romania early Sunday during Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets and port infrastructure near the Danube.In Latvia, a Russian drone crashed near the town of Rezekne, possibly straying from Belarus, the day

Fundamental Overview The USDCHF pair eventually dropped to a new low as a series of soft US data pushed Treasury yields lower giving the CHF a boost. The NFP report on Friday wasn’t bad, on the contrary, the data under the hood was better than the prior month. Nevertheless, the trend in the labour market

Fundamental Overview The USD last week came under some more pressure as a series of soft US data pushed Treasury yields lower. The NFP report on Friday wasn’t bad though, on the contrary, the data under the hood was better than the prior month. That helped the greenback to erase the weekly losses. Nevertheless, the

APPEC-Trafigura exec says oil market is more concerned about foreign policies under next US president.APPEC-Trafigura exec says no secret Trump is not a fan of Iran.APPEC-Trafigura exec says oil market likely to be more volatile if Trump was to become president.APPEC-Trafigura exec says shadow fleet still moves large amounts of Russian oil, while Iranian oil

China’s Xi meets with Spanish Prime Minister in Beijing – Chinese state media.China’s President Xi, in talks with Prime Minister of Spain: China and Spain should build long-term and stable relationship full of strategic determination, and push bilateral relations to a higher level – state media.China’s President Xi: Hopes Spain will continue to pay interest

The calendar is extremely light on the first trading day of the new week. EU Session: The only data point that is remotely noticeable is the EU Sentix Index, but unlikely to get any attention from markets. US Session: For the US session we have employment trends and consumer credit. For the macro focused traders

China’s consumer inflation picked up but was below expectations … limp demandOil prices up since opening for the week – potential hurricane getting narrative loveChina August 2024 CPI +0.6% y/y (expected +0.7%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0989 (vs. estimate at 7.0951)Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi cites BOJ’s Ueda saying more rate

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Solicits public opinion on work plan for national carbon emission trading market covering cement, iron and steel, electrolytic aluminium sectors. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Russian military to join China’s drills in sea and airspace in Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk in September – Xinhua. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy watchers poll: 49.0 vs 47.5 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

BofA Global Research expects U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver 25bps rate cut in each meeting starting September 2024, slowing to 25bps per quarter in March 2025. This follows on from the earlier post by Eamonn about Goldman who also thinks a 25bp is now the more likely size of the September cut. In my view

Japan govt to back former top FX diplomat Masato Kanda as candidate for next ADB President – Yomiuri. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

NHC says disturbance expected to become a strengthening tropical storm today, increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB: 100% probability of a 25bp cut Fed: 100% probability of a 25bp cut BoE: 80% probability of a hold (20% chance of a cut) BoJ: 99% probability of a hold (1% chance of a cut) RBA: 92% probability of a hold (8% chance of a cut) SNB: 100% probability of a cut Out of

The advance reading is here: Japan Q2 GDP +0.8% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected) The updated result has trimmed growth back a little: Buried in the details is a little further discouragement. The contribution from domestic demand was trimmed to +0.8%q/q vs. the +0.9% in the preliminary release: private consumption similarly trimmed, +0.9% q/q vs. +1.0%

RBC has been looking for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at the May 2025 meeting, citing: inflation in Australia remaining elevated, above RBA targetslower growth not a reason for the RBA to cut this yearRBA didn’t hike as much as the Fed or ECB so the RBA easing path is going

Greece to raise 8 billion to 10 billion euros from bond markets in 2025, sources say.Greece will pay ahead of schedule 8 billion euros of first bailout loans in December, say sources.Greece to continue early repayments of first bailout loans in 2025, sources say. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Swiss sight deposits of domestic banks at 447.258 bln SFR in week ending September 6 versus 448.564 bln SFR a week earlier.Swiss total sight deposits at 455.903 bln SFR in week ending September 6 versus 456.724 bln SFR a week earlier. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

It’s a quiet day on Monday in terms of scheduled economic events, which is typical for the week following the release of the U.S. NFP data. On Tuesday, attention will shift to Australia with the release of the Westpac consumer sentiment and NAB business confidence data. In the U.K., key labor market data will be

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1084USD/JPY 142.34GBP/USD 1.3124USD/CHF 0.8439USD/CAD 1.3576AUD/USD 0.6668NZD/USD 0.6176 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China Auto Industry Body CPCA: China sold 1.92 mln passenger cars in Aug, down 1.1% y/y. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

German domestic intelligence agency warns against Russian cyber group of GRU Unit 29155.German domestic intelligence agency says group carried out cyber attacks, other reconnaissance against targets in NATO and EU countries. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

An update from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), on potential Tropical Cyclone Six: The system in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern US Gulf CoastSystem in Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

APPEC-Goldman Sachs says OPEC will go ahead in next few quarters (not Q4) with gradual and moderate production increases.APPEC-Goldman Sachs says 7 million BPD of financial demand was lost over the last two months, with positioning at an all-time low. WTI is currently trading just below $69. With oil prices continuing to fall it seems

North Korea state medai, KCNA report on Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin sent greetings to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. On the occasion of North Korea’s founding anniversaryPutin: “I am sure that the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and the DPRK will be strengthened in a planned way thanks to

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Monetary policy should be considered, judged by BOJ, when asked about market expectations of further rate hikes by BOJI remember BOJ governor Ueda has already said, with some conditions, BOJ is ready to go in that direction If economic situation requires stimulus, I would prefer increasing expenditure, payouts rather than

Info comes via the monthly Report on Jobs, produced by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG in the UK. survey reported a significant slowdown in the labour market in Augustjob placements declining sharply – permanent job placements dropped at their fastest rate in five monthswage growth easing – wage growth for new permanent employees

BlackRock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg spoke with Bloomberg TV (gated) in response to Friday’s August jobs report. He made a cautionary note on the upcoming meeting. Rosenberg expressed concern should the Federal Reserve choose to cut the Fed Funds rate by 50bp: that might signal that the FOMC has worries over the state of the economya 25bp

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Analysts at Bank of America see a huge flip to dovish for the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada: Forecast a 25bp rate cut at the next five Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 17-18, 2024 November 6-7, 2024 December 17-18, 2024January/February 31-1, 2025March 21-22, 2025 And, for the Bank of Canada:

US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen spoke over the weekend at on Saturday at the Texas Tribune Festival. Bloomberg (gated) summarised her comments: “For the US, the kinds of metrics that we would monitor that would summarize risks — whether it’s asset valuations or a good degree of leverage — things look good, I

The Chinese inflation data are the focus of the data agenda. The y/y CPI is expected to have increased from July. If the 0.7% consensus median is hit it’ll be the fastest rate of increase since February this year, which counts as progress for China. On Friday ex-PBOC Governor Yi Gang emphasised the importance of

On Sunday China’s ‘state planer’, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), issued a joint statement with the Ministry of Commerce (MOC). In a nutshell, the bombshell announcement is of the complete removal of restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector. This will happen on November 1, in the form of the release of

Mon: Apple iPhone Event; Japanese GDP Revised (Q2),Chinese CPI (Aug), EZ Sentix Index (Sep), US Employment Trends (Aug)Tue: EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR; Australian Business Confidence (Aug), German Final CPI (Aug),UK Unemployment/Wages (Jul), Swedish GDP (Jul), Norwegian CPI (Aug), US NFIB (Aug), Chinese Trade Balance, M2 & New Yuan Loans (Aug)Wed: UK GDP Estimate (Jul), US

China’s central bank didn’t report any gold purchases in August, saying that reserves remain at 72.80 million troy ounces. Reported buying halted in May after many months of accumulation. Reports afterwards suggested the PBOC had grown price sensitive. in February the PBOC bought 390,000 ounces in March, 160,000in April, 60,000 A few things: Buying tapered

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China CPI.Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, US NFIB Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: UK GDP, US CPI.Thursday: Japan PPI, ECB Policy Decision, US PPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Monday The Chinese CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.7% vs. 0.5% prior, while the M/M measure is

On Friday, shares of Nvidia fell 4% and chipmakers dragged the Nasdaq to its lowest in the three weeks. One reason for the sell-off was a Goldman Sachs note from Peter Oppenheimer arguing that traffic to ChatGPT was plunging. Goldman published this chart, which was later widely circulated (including in the Financial Times). It showed

The good news is that the garrulous Federal Reserve speakers will be restrained over the next fortnight, the bad news is that the talk and speculation about the FOMC won’t stop. It looks like we’ve heard the final word from the FOMC and the backout starts at midnight ET. We’re left with a market pricing

US August non-farm payrolls +142K vs +160K expectedCanada August employment change +22.1 versus +25.0K estimateFOMC Waller : Time has come to begin reducing. Labor market softening/not deterioratingWaller Q&A: Forecasts could be wrong, must be nimble as data comes inFed’s Goolsbee: Critical challenge is not letting things turn into something worseFed’s Williams: Unemployment rate still low

WTI crude is still clinging to support but the picture is looking increasingly dire for brent. The global benchmark closed today at the lowest since December 2021. There have been a series of daily lows right around these levels and there are intraday lows that are worse since 2021 but this is the lowest daily

None of how the market is acting today in reaction to the lack of a strong 50 basis point signal from Waller should be a surprise. Here is what I wrote back in June: It’s been awhile since we’ve had a ‘normal’ rate cutting cycle so it’s worth a reminder about what happens and what

This looks like a double top in the S&P 500 and now you have to ask if we will go down and test the August low or consolidate here. The chipmakers certainly aren’t sending a great signal with NVDA down to $102. On the day: S&P 500 -1.7%Nasdaq Comp -2.5%DJIA -1.0%Russell 2000 -1.7%Toronto TSX Comp

There aren’t many charts more technical than bitcoin and with today’s 4.5% decline, it’s sending all the wrong signals. It’s only been below these levels for a few hours over the past six months and the last time it was here it was flushed down to $50,000 in something of a flash crash. At the

The USDJPY has seen up and down volatility after the US jobs report and subsequent market volatility. The tumble in US stocks and move lower in yields may have an influence as well as sellers pushed the price lower. Technically however, the low price today at 141.75, 10 apex of the low price from August

Prior -€6.09 billion; revised to -€5.98 billion The French trade deficit more or less held steady on the month, with exports falling by 3.3% and imports falling by 3.1% in July. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a ride today between a mixed non-farm payrolls report and Fed commentary. With the cards now all on the table, the market is shifting away from 50 basis points. Odds are down to 23% from as high as 57% in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report. At the same time, there are

WSJ Nick Timiraos is out with his view of the Waller comments in a tweet: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is an undercurrent in economic circles right now and it basically boils down to: The Fed should cut 50 bps but it will probably cut 25 bps. Rick Rieder from BlackRock was on Bloomberg earlier today making that point and CIBC touches on it in their review of the non-farm payrolls report, which they

Some of the increase in unemployment reflects a cool-down in the labor market from an overheated stateThe labor market is now roughly in balance and therefore unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressures going forwardIs ready to start the process of rate cutsMonetary policy can be moved to a more neutral stance depending on

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Both the US and Canadian jobs report will released today. In the US, the market is breathing a little sigh of relief in that the numbers weren’t as weak as last month. The unemployment rate did tick down to 4.2% from 4.3%. In Canada, the unemployment rate moved higher 26.6% which was a highest level

ADP August employment +99K vs +145K expectedUS August ISM services 51.5 vs 51.1 expectedUS August final S&P Global Services PMI Aug 55.7 vs 55.2 prelimUS initial jobless claims 227K vs 230K estimateUS Q2 unit labor costs +0.4% vs +0.8% expectedOPEC+ agrees to delay October oil output increase – reportGOP nominee Trump to propose a 15%

At 8:45 am ET, we will hear from NY Fed President John Williams and then at 11 am ET, we will hear from Fed Governor Chris Waller. Those are two heavyweights at the Fed and they were no-doubt scheduled to give the market a nudge on the FOMC’s thinking ahead of the Sept 18 meeting.

The oil market hasn’t spent much time under $70 in the post-pandemic period but after five days of heavy selling, it’s now at $67.29, which is the lowest since June of 2023. Last year we saw several dips down into this range that were all bought, including two intraday falls below $65. The low close

Critical challenge is: Not letting things turn into something worseIf you look at the Beige Book, you can’t look at it as exciting, if anything it was a fair bit downbeatIt suggests there are warning signs on the economyYou only want rates to be this high as long as you have toWe will get a

Feds Waller is speaking and says: Believe maintaining the economy’s forward momentum means time has come to begin reducing policy rate at upcoming meeting Data in past three days indicates labor market is softening but not deteriorating; this judgment important to upcoming policy decision It is likely a series of reductions in policy rate will

The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and ends the Thursday following the decision (decisions are always on Wednesdays). NY Fed president Williams

The Australian dollar chart has caught my attention today as it falls 76 pips, or 1.1%. It’s the underperformer today as the US dollar strengthens broadly and risk trades are beaten up. A week ago, it looked like it could be breaking out as it touched the highest since January but the market is having

USD/JPY is on the move to start the day, down another 0.5% to 142.70 currently. The pair is trickling lower, vying for a stronger technical breakdown as yields are also pressured lower on the week. That follows from the mix of US data yesterday. Besides that, the dollar is sitting in narrower ranges against the

Headlines: USD/JPY extends fall alongside bond yields to start the sessionRisk on the retreat as bond yields fallPreview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?We’ve seen the flop and the turn, it is now on to the riverWhat are the distribution of forecasts

The USDCAD has moved to a new high and reach the next technical target at 1.35535 (see, mom months absent concepts and). THe price has not been above that moving average since August 7 nearly one month ago. A break above that level would have traders looking toward its 200-day moving average of 1.35880. Earlier

This update from FedWatch heading into the NFP report later today. The NFP data is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 pm GMT). Earlier posts: Goldman Sachs on what its gonna take from NFP for a 50bp interest rate cut from the FOMCOptions are pricing in big stock swings on NFP FridayPreview: Why

More to come, I’ll update live. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD has moved higher. It is now moving lower in volatile trading as it digests the US jobs report and comments from Fed officials this morning including Feds Waller, Feds Goolsby, and Feds Williams. Stocks are moving lower which is leading to some risk off in the NZDUSD as well. Technically, the pair is

New York Fed Pres. Williams is answering reporters questions after his speech at the New York economics club and says: Not ready to say how big first rate cut should beit’s clear labor market imbalances have eased.Jobs market more consistent with pre-pandemic environment.Clear rates should fall, but pace, destination last clear The initial reaction was

As the market digests the US jobs report, the stock market is casting its vote. The major indices were much lower in premarket ahead of the jobs report. Since then, all of those declines have been retraced. The major indices are opening marginally higher. The NASDAQ was down over -200 points in premarket trading. So

The data from earlier is here: Japan data – July household spending +0.1% y/y (expected +1.2%)Consumer spending +0.1% in July y/y compared with the median market forecast for 1.2%month-on-month saw it slump 1.7% against the -0.2% expected Admittedly other data points are more encouraging for the Bank of Japan, notable wages from earlier this week:’

Former People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang Overall China has weak domestic demand, especially on consumption and investment sideHopes in near future china’s GDP deflator will turn slightly positiveHopes producer price industry will improve to about zero by the end of this yearShould go back to proactive fiscal policy in China and accommodative monetary

The US jobs report was a bit weaker than expectations especially when you consider the -86,000 revision to the prior month’s. Nonfarm payroll rose by 142K lower than the 161K estimate but the unemployment rate did fall to 4.2% from 4.3%. The USD dollar had an up-and-down reaction sending the three major currency pairs to

Fundamental Overview Gold has been rallying steadily this week since bouncing from the bottom of the recent range. The soft US Job Openings on Wednesday gave it the tailwind to push into the key resistance around the 2530 level. This move has been driven by falling real yields as the softer US data caused the

Prior was +114K Details of the August 2024 jobs report: Two-month net revision: -86K versus -29K priorUnemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected (prior was 4.3%)Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.220% vs 4.252% priorParticipation rate: 62.7% versus 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +118K vs +139K expectedPrior private payrolls 97K (revised to 74K)U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 7.8% priorAverage hourly earnings:

The market has taken a long look at the August non-farm payrolls and decided it’s not weak enough to pricing in a 50 basis point Fed cut this month. Initially, the softer headline number and downward revision caused a spike in 50 bps odds to 57% and a drop in the US dollar, however that

Prior was 57.6Non-seasonally adjusted vs 55.3 prior This is a low-level indicator. It’s a poor reading but it’s very volatile and rarely offers a useful signal for the Canadian economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NFP is at 1230 GMT / 0830 US Eastern time: Goldman Sachs on what its gonna take from NFP for a 50bp interest rate cut from the FOMCWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?Preview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to

Overall for the week, the USDCHF is little changed with highs on Monday and Tuesday and the low for the week reached today on the US jobs volatility. After trading to a new low for the week (and a new low for the year too), the price of the USDCHF has snapped back higher with

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed ahead of the US (and Canada) jobs report(s). The US stocks are not looking good ahead of the report after Broadcom earnings failed to impress after the close yesterday. It’s shares are down -7.6%.

Reuters with the info from Citi following the OPEc announcement earlier: “We see the OPEC+ unwind delay and ongoing geopolitics and financial positioning providing price support at $70-72 Brent”We recommend selling on a bounce toward $80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus

Prior month -2.8K Employment change 22.1K vs 25.0 K estimateUnemployment rate 6.6% vs 6.5% estimate.HIGHEST since May 2017 outside of 2020 and 2021 Covid periodPrior month unemployment rate 6.4% Full-time employment -43.6K vs 61.6 K last month.Part-time employment 65.7K vs -64.4K last monthParticipation rate 65.1% vs 65.0 K last monthAverage hourly wages YoY 4.9% vs

Fundamental Overview This week the growth fears came back as the we got a couple of soft US data. Most of the weakness can be attributed to the ISM Manufacturing PMI which disappointed as it missed expectations, and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. Overall, the report was much better than the prior

The Apple’s iPhone 16 event is scheduled for 10 September at 1pm US Eastern time Goldman is bullish on the stock, and has increased its Apple price target to $276 GS lists four surprises could drive the stock price higher: announcing a price increase for the new iPhones (“AAPL’s investments in iPhone hardware and across

Jobs data consistent with a cooling economySays he would like to see the jobs data more closelyMore focus now on balancing Fed’s jobs and inflation mandatesElections don’t make the Fed’s job more difficultIndependent central banks achieve goals betterWe’re moving in the right direction on 2% inflation but not there yetPath on rate cuts will be

The market is now at 51% for 50 bps and 49% for 25 bps — almost as close as possible. Nick Timiraos from the WSJ highlights what the jobs report means: There was a chance the jobs report would provide an obvious signal on the size of the first cut, and futures-market pricing would move

HKEX will not trade this morning. Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing is the operator of the city’s stock exchange. Its cancelled morning trade in the securities and derivatives market after the city issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning Latest reports are that the warning will be lowered from 8 to 3 around 12.40 pm Hong Kong

The angst in markets is certainly showing up early today. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. This comes as bond yields are dipping, with 10-year yields in the US falling to below 3.70% – down 3.8 bps on the day. It’s all positioning flows ahead of the US jobs

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 and 1.1150 levels. They are likely to help sandwich price action as traders wait on the US jobs report later in the day. And that is just that, markets are all fixated on the

Welcome to the main event of the week. The non-farm payrolls report for August is due at the bottom of the hour and Canada will be releasing its jobs report at the same time. The market is pricing in a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut from the Fed this month and that will

Prior 108.6; revised to 109.1Coincident index 117.1Prior 113.7; revised to 114.1 The assessment of the coincident index is maintained as “halting to fall”, with both that and the leading index seen rebounding back a little in July. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.9% House prices in the UK continue to nudge higher, with the latest seeing a typical property now costing £292,505 – its highest since August 2022. Halifax notes that: “Recent price rises build on a largely positive summer for the UK housing market. Prospective homebuyers are feeling more confident thanks to

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Forecast makes a surprising argument. Researchers there are looking for a series of mini rate cuts from the Bank of England. In the note, the BCC says that after the first interest rate cut in over four years in August, the Bank of England is predicted to

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% S&P 500 futures are down by 0.1%, Nasdaq futures down by 0.4%, while Dow futures are up by 0.1%. At the balance, risk is a little softer with bond yields holding lower today. That is helping to pin USD/JPY down as well at 142.55

The US jobs report is due at 8.30am US Eastern time on Friday, September 6, 2024 (1230 GMT): Preview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?Goldman Sachs NFP preview, say that August payrolls often have a negative bias initiallyFriday’s NFP result could prompt

Fundamental Overview It’s been a rough week for crude oil as the price dropped more than 6% on renewed growth fears amid a couple of soft US data. The delay by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t spark a rally but it helped to slow down the bearish momentum. A lot now hinges on

Crude oil futures is settling at $69.15 after trying to rebound for the first time in four trading days. It was not meant to be. The price is closing lower for the fourth consecutive day. The high for the day reached $70.78. The low for the day reached $68.79. What is not logical is that

In the European session, we won’t have market moving releases as we just get low tier data points and the 3rd estimate of the Eurozone Q2 GDP (old news). The focus of course will be on the US NFP report in the American session with the Canadian labour market report being released at the same

The plunge in early August when markets were throwing a tantrum was held by the December 2023 lows, at least on the daily chart. But even so, the pair has been trending in a lower highs, lower lows pattern ever since June this year. The trend speaks to a check back in optimism in European

Housing finance has been on an up trend. AUD/USD little changed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

With so much scrutiny on the US labour market at the moment, it doesn’t come any bigger than jobs Friday. The non-farm payrolls data is going to be key in deciding how markets end the week. And it won’t be just the headline number, the details are going to matter too – especially the unemployment

This is a bit of a placeholder session ahead as we await you-know-what: Preview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?Goldman Sachs NFP preview, say that August payrolls often have a negative bias initiallyFriday’s NFP result could prompt a 50bp rate cut by

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Prior +0.3% Looking at the breakdown, household consumption was more or less negligible on the quarter and that is the same for changes in inventories. Government expenditure contributed 0.1% while gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.5%. The latter was offset by trade i.e. exports less imports, which contributed 0.5% on the quarter. Anyway, this

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% S&P 500 futures are now down 0.3%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% and Dow futures down 0.1%. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are down 3.3 bps to 3.700% and that’s weighing further on USD/JPY as well. The pair is now down 0.8%

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 111 bps (57% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 63 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 58 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming

The major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results. On a top side, the NASDAQ index is closing higher with a gain of 43.37 points or 0.25% at 17127.66.On the downside, the Dow industrial average felt -219.22 points or -0.54% at 40,755.74. The S&P index also fell by -16.66 points or -0.30%

Prior €20.4 billion The German trade surplus narrowed in July as exports grew by 1.7% but that was outpaced by imports, which grew by 5.4% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

An ugly miss for this data point. At the margin its not yen supportive. July household spending +0.1% y/y expected +1.2%, prior -1.4% -1.7% m/m expected -0.2%, prior +0.1% USD/JPY update. Looks like its going to be a long wait until NFP. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) carry the report on exposures of Chinase state-owned banks. In summary: State run Chinese banks have used FX swaps to prop up the yuanBloomberg cites estimates that the banks have built short positions in the USD of over USD100bnWhich has created “virtually risk-free returns of about 6% as recently as July for traders

The pair is down another 0.3% today to just under 143.00 now, revisiting the overnight lows right after the US ADP employment change here. The thing is, the bond market is now convinced of a softer turn in the labour market and is pricing in more downside. In that lieu, traders are trying to skew

10-year Treasury yields are now down nearly 4 bps to under 3.70% and that is adding some weight to USD/JPY. The pair is now dragged down by 0.9% to near 142.00 with the 5 August low of 141.68 in focus. Equities are also not spared to further breakdown in yields, with S&P 500 futures now

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japanese household spending rose less than expected in July – recapFed speakers today include Williams and Waller – then the ‘blackout’ period beginsChinese banks used swaps to build short positions in the dollar of around US$100 billionFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period begins on the weekendAustralian July home loans +2.9% m/m (expected +1.0%)Friday morning

Ian Lyngen is a great fixed income strategist and today he weighs in on the huge bid in bonds and what it would take to make a 50 basis point cut as the baseline: “The Treasury market is pricing in a weaker employment report than we’re likely to see,” he writes. “To be fair, we

Prior +1.4%; revised to +1.7% Factory orders may have gotten a boost amid a one-off nature yesterday here. But industrial output continues to slump hard and that adds to the worrying outlook for the German manufacturing sector. If you exclude energy and construction, the drop on the month is even more profound i.e. -3.2%. The

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated), published only minutes ago: “The long arc shows inflation is coming down very significantly, and the unemployment rate is rising faster” than Fed officials had expected in June Given the more favorable inflation data and the less favorable unemployment

BofA expects additional USD weakness following the August sell-off, citing historical patterns, valuation concerns, and shifting global financial conditions. Key Points: Historical Patterns: DXY Downtrend: After similar bearish breakouts in the past, the DXY index has typically continued its decline, averaging an additional 4% drop. This trend suggests further USD weakness, particularly against EUR, GBP,

JP Morgan projections come via Reuters oil reporting: With the window of opportunity to phase out production cuts now closed, OPEC+ will maintain current production levels at least for another year”Under this scenario, our price outlook calls for Brent to average $75 in 2025, with prices dipping into low-$60s by year-end”For oil, “$60 is not

The pound has made steady progress today and is now at the best levels of the week, despite a mixed picture for risk assets overall. It’s up 36 pips to 1.3180, which is the best since Friday and would be the best closing level since last Wednesday. Much of the move is being driven by

The us jobs report is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) on Friday, September 6, 2024. The focus on this is intense ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It’s a bit of a toss up right now for a 25bp oir 50bp rate cut. Earlier: What would it

Discover how to apply risk management in stocks so that you’ll never blow any trading account again The post Risk Management For Stock Trading (The Complete Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Broadcom earnings are showing: EPS comes in at $1.24 versus expected $1.20. BEATRevenues come in at $13.07 billion versus expected $12.96 billion BEATAdjusted EBITDA came in at $8.22 billion versus expected $7.89 billion. BEAT Forward guidance comes in at $14 billion which is marginally lower than the 14.1 billion estimate. Other details Semiconductor Solutions Revenue:

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s ‘state planner’. The NDRC has announced a measure that should serve as a form of stimulus: Gasoline and diesel prices will both be reduced by 100 yuan per tonne This is not a surprise from the NDRC, under the current

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Broadcom will announce earnings after the close. What is expected? EPS $1.22Revenues $12.979 THe price of Broadcom – like other chip stocks – has been hit over the last few weeks of trading. From the high on August 22 and $172.42, the price has move down to a low of $149.15 reached just yesterday. That

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that GOP nominee and former president Trump is to propose a 15% corporate tax rate for companies that make products in the US. The current low tax rate is 21%. Trump will be speaking in front of the New York economic club shortly. The proposal according to Goldman Sachs

Crude oil prices are trying to rebound today with the price currently trading at $70 up $0.80 or 1.15%. The high price extended to $70.54. The low price was at $69.17. OPEC+ decided to delay the October output increase which was rumored yesterday. At the TOP of the hour, the weekly EIA and oil inventory

This is the lowest reading since January 2021, albeit barely. Prior was +122K (revised to +111K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.8% vs 4.8% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 7.3% vs 7.2% priorService-providing sector added 72K jobs, goods-producing sector up 27KConstruction (+27K) and education/health services (+29K) led gainsProfessional/business services saw largest decline (-16K) The evidence is beginning to

Treasury Secretary Yellen is making some comments on the economy and says: US labor market has become a less tight, but continues to create jobsWe have a good strong the job market. Growth continues at a rapid pace Commenting on US Steel/Nippon Steel merger says US has a rigorous process of looking at national security

Via a note from Goldman Sachs’ managing director for global markets and tactical specialist Scott Rubner on Wednesday. “A market correction may start to get traction if payrolls are weak on Friday,” Expects selling to pick up from September 16. GS estimates about US$6.6 billion of passive demand until company earnings buyback blackout period begins

Futures have roamed back and forth today but are flat ahead of the equity open. Eyes have turned towards Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and I’d expect to see some position squaring ahead of that. There is clearly a tailwind from Treasuries with yields down another 3-5 across the curve to cycle lows. Lower borrowing costs

In the Kickstart video for September 5, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The dump of data this morning gave a mixed picture with the ADP employment change coming in below 100K the first time three years (weak). On the other

Some bullets from GOP nominee Trump: Will easily end 10 regulations for every new oneUS will be the leader for cryptoSays that there will be no tax on Social Security BenefitsWill lower corporate tax rate to 15% for good manufactured in the USWill increase tariffs on products coming in from different countriesSays tarriffs in the

Prelim was +0.9% Prior was +3.8%Productivity +2.5% vs +2.5% expectedPrelim productivity was +2.3% I wouldn’t take too much from this report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Uh-Oh! The rise in the NASDAQ index today took the price to a high of 17295. That also extended briefly above its 200-hour moving average at 17284.26 (at the time – the current level is a little lower at 17281.12), but the momentum quickly reversed and traders started to use that moving average line as

Consensus estimate +160K versus +175K prior (range +100K to +246K)July was +114K Private consensus +139K versus +148K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% versus 4.3% priorPrior participation rate 62.6%Prior underemployment U6 7.8% vAvg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% versus +3.7% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus 34.2 prior

Crude drawdown of -6.873 million vs expected drawdown -0.993M barrelsDistillates drawdown of -0.371 million vs. expected build of 0.481M barrelsGasoline build of +0.848 million vs expected drawdown of -0.730M barrelsCushing drawdown of -1.142M vs last week drawdown of -0.668M The private data released late yesterday showed a large drawdown in Crude stocks which seems to

Business activity index 53.3 versus 54.5 priorEmployment 50.2 versus 51.1 priorNew orders 53.0 versus 52.4 priorPrices paid 57.3 versus 57.0 priorSupplier deliveries 49.6 versus 47.6 priorInventories 52.9 versus 49.8 priorBacklog of orders 43.7 versus 50.6 priorNew export orders 50.9 versus 58.5 priorImports 50.3 versus 53.3 priorInventory sentiment 54.9 versus 63.2 prior I used to love

No preset idea on pace of rate hikesAlso none on whether we will hike rates several more timesIf economy, prices move in line with forecast, then we will adjust policy in stagesHave to scrutinise market moves at each policy meetingNo preset idea on whether there is a ceiling on how much we could raise rates

Investment mistakes are always expensive, which is why it’s best to learn from the experiences of others. With that in mind, here are the top ten tips that most investors really wish they had heard (and believed) sooner. 1. Start Early The power of compounding means that the sooner you start investing, the more time

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, but despite that cut, the CAD strengthened vs the USD (USDCAD lower). The move lower in the USDCAD cracked below the 100-hour moving average currently at 1.35136, but could not sustain downside momentum to the 200-hour moving average at 1.34926. IN trading today, the