The AUDUSD rebound found resistance at the 100-hour moving average, which once again proved to be a reliable technical barrier for buyers. After the rejection, price action has turned lower, with the pair now trading below a critical confluence of moving averages. Specifically, the pair is holding below the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart […]

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 growth falls to 2.2% from 2.4% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.2 percent on May 27, down from 2.4 percent on May 16. After recent releases from the

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Lane in a Faz interview says: No one is talking about dramatic rate cuts We are in a zone of normal central banking ECB task is to bring inflation back to 2% That task is mostly completed and inflation to remain close to 2% in the coming months Service inflation still too high The

The crazy, aggressiveness from Russia’s Putin continues. Air raid sirens are blaring in Kiev as a threat ballistic missile strike. This is according to the Kiev Post. Pres. Trump has been increasingly more critical of Russias Putin, threatening additional sanctions, and added a warning that Putin is playing with fire. Putin seems to be unfazed

The GBPUSD is under pressure after failing to hold gains above the 1.3532 to 1.3541 resistance level for a second time. Sellers stepped in, leading to a reversal that has pushed the pair back toward a key technical zone. Immediate support is found near the 100-hour moving average at 1.3495 and the swing area around

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.6% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.9% That’s a softer set of readings than expected, with services inflation in particular seen easing. That dropped from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May and that will feed into the core estimate further. Although, core annual inflation was already on the lower side for

Two sources told Reuters that Japan will consider trimming issuance of super-long bonds in response to the recent sharp rise in yields. The report weighed on yields and the Japanese Yen as the market started to expect government intervention on the matter. BoJ officials recently didn’t provide anything to calm the surge in yields, but

The USDCHF continued to respect key technical levels in early Tuesday trading, as the pair once again found support at the 0.8193–0.8212 swing area. The zone, which had provided a base earlier this month (and into the end of April), attracted buyers again after a brief dip below it during the Asian session quickly reversed—similar

Agustín Carstens (head of the Bank for International Settlements): Essential for fiscal authorities to curb relentless rise in public debt With days of ultra-low rates over, fiscal authorities have narrow window to put their house in order before public trust in their commitments starts to fray Central banks should not be expected to stabilise inflation

The major European indices are closing mostly higher. France’s CAC is marginally lower. The German DAX leading the way with a gain of 0.83% and closing at a new all-time record high.. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German Dax rose 198.84 points or 0.83% at 24226.50. France’s CAC -1.34.points or -0.02% at 7826.80.

Today’s MGC Futures Trading Plan: Market Context and Levels MGC Futures Trading Plan Today for Traders Q: “What’s today’s trading plan for Micro Gold (MGC) futures based on VWAP and volume profile?” A: Bullish Bias: To turn bullish, MGC futures must regain today’s VWAP at 3,318.8. Above this level, upside targets include yesterday’s POC (3,338),

Fundamental Overview As the market finished to reprice the interest rates expectations for the Fed and got back in line with the central bank’s baseline scenario of two rate cuts in 2025, the pressure on gold waned and the precious metal started to climb up again. Last Friday, Trump’s threat of imposing a 50% tariff

In the coming months we cannot rule out negative inflation in Switzerland Price stability is essential contribution a central bank can make. Trade uncertainties are currently enormous, related to the tariffs from the United States. Yeah or so was yada yada sed you see him go check it maybe is with her daddy in the

Economic confidence 94.8 Prior 93.6; revised to 93.8 Services confidence 1.5 Prior 1.4; revised to 1.6 Industrial confidence -10.3 Prior -11.2; revised to -11.0 It’s a slight improvement in the euro area economic sentiment but the estimate continues to range thereabouts since the turn of the year. With Trump’s latest tariffs threat, there’s still much

U.S. session traders are pushing the dollar lower as risk sentiment improves ahead of the stock market open. Equity futures are pointing to strong gains, with the S&P 500 up 78 points (+1.33%), Dow futures higher by 487 points, and NASDAQ futures up 318 points. In the EURUSD, an early dip tested the rising 100-hour

The EURUSD rally stalled just ahead of the 61.8% retracement level at 1.13781, with the high price reaching 1.1375 before rotating lower. Sellers stepped in at this key technical level, and the pair has since dipped back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.13451—a line that had previously supported the bullish bias (or at least

High yield 3.955% WI level at the time of the auction 3.965%. Tail -1.0 basis points versus six-month average of -0.4 basis points. Bid to cover 2.57X vs average of 2.65X Directs 26.2% versus six-month average of 16.4% Indirects 63.3% versus six-month average of 72.7% Dealers 10.5% versus six-month average of 10.9% Auction Grade: B-

Chinese state media talking up the solid rise for April industrial profits China April Industrial Profits +3% y/y (prior +2.6%) Goldman Sachs sees lower oil prices in 2025-2026 Japanfinmin Kato: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamental PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1876 (vs. estimate at 7.1842) Japan fin min

Optionality remains essential. Inflation undershoot would only be temporary. A bigger rate cut would certainly see European long term yields surging as it would be seen as a mistake in the current context. He’s taking a more neutral view on rates here and he’s not worried of undershooting the inflation target. He’s likely for a

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

. Feds Barkin on Bloomberg says: Data shows economy on same trajectory as last year or two Low unemployment and inflation moving towards target. Will have to see how consumers react to price changes. Seeing lots of hiring freezes. Businesses are still largely pulling to the sidelines. People are patient on investment, does not see

Pres. Trump is mulling increased sanctions on Russia in coming days as a result of frustration with Russia’s Pres. Putin after the drone strikes over the weekend. US trade with Russia represents less than 0.3% of total U.S. international trade from most recent data, making Russia a very minor trading partner for the United States.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1380 and 1.1400 level. The expiries should act as a magnet, especially the latter, in keeping price action in a stickier spot in the session ahead. That especially with a lack of

Prior CHF 6.35 billion; revised to CHF 6.29 billion The Swiss trade surplus was little changed in April with exports falling from CHF 30.3 billion in March to CHF 25.4 billion in April. Meanwhile, imports were seen down from CHF 24.0 billion in March to CHF 19.1 billion in April. This article was written by

We are likely to see that to be the case at our meeting next week French inflation is a positive indicator This follows the French inflation report earlier here. And his remarks pretty much reaffirms a rate cut for next week as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD peaked yesterday at 0.6030, just above the previous 2025 high at 0.6028, but quickly reversed as sellers leaned into that resistance. The decline has since pushed the pair back toward a critical confluence support zone that will be key in determining the next directional move. This support area centers around the 100- and

Barclays notes that the shift in portfolios by global investors during the month could invite more dollar selling to take place this week. That as trade tensions eased significantly since April, which led to a broader rally in stocks in May. Their month-end rebalancing model predicts that the dollar will face moderate selling against other

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.8% This of course follows the more solid gains from yesterday. UK stocks will have some catching up to do after the extended weekend. Hence, the gains in the futures there. As for the US, we’re seeing S&P 500 futures up 1.0% awaiting the return of Wall Street.

Greg had the breaking headline on this: OPEC+ meeting was brought forward to May 31st from June 1st A little more detail now: eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 31, a day earlier than previously planned Reuters with the info, citing three unnamed sources meeting will likely decide on July output sources previously told

The ECB should pause further interest rate cuts until at least September. We should keep out powder dry given the US-EU trade war. No reason to lower rates in June and July. Cutting further would be more risky than staying where we are now. Further rate cut would likely have no effect on economic activity.

The very soft French inflation figures released this morning are weighing on the euro as the market might be starting to look for a stronger divergence between the Fed and the ECB. The ECB policymakers also continue to blame the stronger euro for the downside risks for inflation. This might eventually force them to cut

Hope that by the beginning of July, we will have a result from discussions with the US Need to diversify; important not to depend on single trading partner As a reminder, Switzerland was slapped with 31% tariffs from the initial announcement in April as they are being treated separately from the EU. However, now the

The data from Japan is here: Japan Services Producer Price Index (April 2025) +3.1% (expected +3.0%, prior +3.1%) And Ueda here: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda – close to inflation target but not quite there Ueda’s remarks were not overly hawkish (see that link above) but nevertheless the yen has gained ground sharply: This article

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a resounding triumph for the technology sector, led by impressive gains across key players. Both semiconductor and software segments are exhibiting strong upward momentum. Nvidia (NVDA) shines with a remarkable 3.03% increase, while AVGO closely follows at 2.23%. Microsoft (MSFT) adds significant weight with a gain of 1.78%.

The USDJPY is gaining bullish traction after breaking above a key confluence zone that included the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the May decline, between 144.124 and 144.257. This area had capped the pair earlier, but today’s rally clears that hurdle and shifts near-term bias to the upside. On the downside, buyers

NVIDIA Earnings Technical Analysis with tradeCompass (May 27, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for Today Bearish below: $145.50 Bullish only on reclaim: $122.25 (after breakdown) Primary Bias: Sit out the initial volatility, then fade or follow confirmation Partial Targets (Bearish): $142.65, $139.21, $130.55, $124.57 Partial Targets (Bullish): $125.88, $127.31, $138.86, $145.15 NVDA Earnings Context & tradeCompass Strategic

The trade negotiations with the EU were not going well before Friday We could see a few more deals as soon as this week We are trying to unshore as much as we can and trying to not be so reliant on China I think you will be astonished how fast manufacturing onshores. We don’t

The USDCAD is testing a key technical area after rebounding from its lowest level of the year at 1.36841 yesterday, a low not seen since October. The pair had extended its slide last week after finding sellers near the 100-hour moving average at 1.3960 on May 20, eventually reaching the recent bottom yesterday. Today, the

The major US stock indices are moving sharply higher in reaction to the more favorable EU tariff situation. Trump on Truth Social today posted: The US trade policy is a “page-turner” with every page (i.e., day) telling a different story. A snapshot of the markets shows: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): ↑ 477.50 points (+1.15%)

The UK government has announced a £3 billion investment aimed at creating 120,000 new training places in sectors like construction, healthcare, engineering, and digital technology. The goal is to tackle workforce shortages and reduce dependence on migrant labour. The move follows increased political pressure to curb immigration, especially after the rise of the anti-immigration Reform

Prior month 0.4% Home price data for 20 markets in the month of March fell -0.1% versus 0.3% estimate YoY 20 market home price index 4.1% vs 4.5% estimate. Last month 4.5% Nicholas Godec Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices “Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual

Prior month 86.0 Index Value: The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.0 in May 2025, up from 86.0 in April 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of 87.0. Present Situation Index: Declined to 135.9 from 133.5 in April 2025, indicating a slightly less optimistic view of current business and labor market conditions. Best since February Expectations

Chinese state media outlet Global Times cites positive developments helping drive industrial profits in April: +3.0% year-on-year in April, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March GT says that new driving force sectors like equipment and high-tech manufacturing saw rapid profit growth, highlighting industrial resilience From January to April, high-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0%

Prior -20.6; revised to -20.8 That’s a slight improvement in consumer morale going into next month but there’s still some reservations. There continues to be a decline in the willingness to spend among households alongside an increase in the willingness to save. The better headline reading is largely helped by an improvement in economic expectations

B2BROKER, a global fintech solutions provider, proudly announces its participation in the Forex Traders Summit Dubai 2025, where the company was honoured with the prestigious “Best Liquidity Provider” award. This recognition further amplifies B2BROKER’s influence as a top-tier provider of institutional liquidity and advanced trading infrastructure across global financial markets. The award was presented live

ECB’s Patsalides: A bigger rate cut is unwarranted now ECB’s Holzmann: The ECB should pause further interest rate cuts until at least September UK May CBI retailing reported sales -27 vs -8 prior Eurozone May final consumer confidence -15.2 vs -15.2 prelim Switzerland says hopes for trade talks with the US to yield a result

The “dollar smile” is an economic theory that describes the behavior of the U.S. dollar in different phases of the economic cycle. It suggests that the dollar strengthens during periods of strong economic growth (when investors become optimistic and buy U.S. assets) and during recessions (when investors flee for safety). However, it tends to weaken

Eurostoxx flat Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 -0.2% UK FTSE +0.8% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy FTSE MIB flat UK stocks have some catching up to do after the holiday break yesterday. And the same will be the case for Wall Street later, with S&P 500 futures seen up 1.2% currently. Looking to the days

X Open Hub, a multiregulated and Warsaw exchange-listed OTC liquidity provider, just announced its attendance at iFX EXPO International 2025, taking place between 17-19 June. Over 6,000 attendees will gather under the roof of City of Dreams Mediterranean Integrated Resort in Limassol to network, engage with existing and potential clients and partners in search of

Prior month +7.6% Durable good orders advanced -6.3% versus -7.8% expected Ex transportation 0.2% versus -0.1% estimate. Last month -0.2% Ex defnse for April -7.5% versus 9.0% last month Non defense capital good ex air -1.3% versus -0.1%. Last month 0.3% The durable goods orders can be quite volatile impacted by aircraft. If you look

But compared to last week, the dollar is still in a vulnerable spot. So far today though, we’re seeing the greenback recover from being lower in Asia trading at least as well. USD/JPY was down to a low of 142.10 earlier but is now up to 142.93 – roughly flat on the day. Meanwhile, EUR/USD

The USD is hgher to start the trading day – and week for North American traders – after the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. The move to the upside is being helped by the flow of funds back into the US after the weekend news that Pres. Trump would not start the “recommended” tariffs on

The association now sees the German economy contracting by 0.3% this year, compared with their previous forecast of a 0.5% decline. Their forecast for overall exports is for a decline of 2.5% through the course of 2025. Meanwhile, they see German inflation holding at 2.1% this year and that’s just marginally lower from the 2.2%

Discover proven methods on how to almost eliminate overtrading while at the same time making profits in the forex markets The post How To Avoid Overtrading appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

MES Futures Trading Plan Today: Important Levels and Context Q: “What’s the MES futures trading plan based on today’s volume profile and key VWAP zones?” A: Bullish Scenario: Price holding above today’s POC (5,903.75) signals short-term bullish momentum, targeting recent highs (5,912.25) and potentially the confluence zone at 5,930 (3rd upper STD + naked POC).

There is a healthy debate among Fed policymakers on whether to look through inflationary effects of tariffs It may take months or years for trade negotiations to fully conclude And there could also be tit-for-tat tariff increases throughout the whole ordeal It will take time for the full effect of tariffs to pass through to

GBPUSD extends above 2024 highs & highest levels since 2022; new weekly swing target eyed Trump Media plans to raise $3B to spend on cryptocurrency. European indices close mostly higher OPEC+ meeting was brought forward to May 31st from June 1st FoxBusiness Gasparino: India trade deal is almost complete. Apple is a potential issue Bloomberg:

Prior -8 This is a very volatile data set and not a market moving release. That’s the lowest reading since March as UK retail sales balance pulls back in May. The expectations balance for June is even worse, falling to -37 and that is down from -33 previously, which would be the lowest since February

I see scope for an interest rate reduction in June. Balance of risks for inflation is to the downside due to trade friction with the US and stronger euro. Borrowing costs are currently at the upper end of the neutral range. The risks that inflation will be below the goal in the future have increased.

In the European session, the main highlight is the French CPI report. The data might not change the June cut probabilities that much, but a pick up in inflation in the next months could keep the ECB on hold for the rest of the year. In the American session, we have the US Durable Goods

A two-day Bank of Japan-hosted conference, likened to the Fed’s Jackson Hole, begins Tuesday in Tokyo. Central bankers and academics from the U.S., Europe, and Asia will tackle complex issues such as slowing global growth, persistent inflation, and volatile markets—much of it driven by U.S. trade policy under Trump. Key topics include interest rate control,

S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (May 27, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for ES Futures Traders S&P 500 Futures (Ticker: ES1!) at time of update: 5,895 Bullish above: 5,866 Bearish below: 5,835 Primary Bias: Bullish Partial Targets (Already Active): • 5,883 – Hit • 5,904 – In progress Extended Bullish Target: 5,924, 5,968.5,

Adam Button, before setting off for the FMAS:25 was able to stop in the studio of BNN Bloomberg and give his view on the CAD and more. To watch the segment click on the link: A bullish case for the Canadian dollar – BNN Bloomberg This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Well, at least for the time being. With there being heavy focus on the US deficit and Trump’s warpath on trade, bonds won’t be able to rest too easily. That especially with worries still permeating on the inflation front in particular. The Fed looks to be put off until at least Q3 despite constant pressure

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China April 2025 Industrial Profits +3% y/y (prior +2.6%), best since December +1.4% YTD (prior +0.8%) The rebound is a sign of some recovery for China’s manufacturing sector and stabilisation for factory activity. It’s a little encouragement for demand recovery also, but headwinds remain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato: Important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals Generally speaking, higher yen could push down import costs and prices Nothing new or surprising from Kato here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: While many of my G7 colleagues looked relieved by progress made in fight against inflation, they also acknowledged new challenges such as heightened trade policy uncertainty and dealing with more frequent supply side shocks In Japan we are still grappling with longstanding challenge of achieving our 2% inflation target in

Goldman Sachs says “oil production growth from non-OPEC ex Russia ex shale top projects will likely accelerate to 1MB/d over next two years” “wave of new natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may lift OPEC NGL production growth to a 0.2MB/d annual average over next two years” lower oil prices in 2025–2026 (i.e.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

UK BRC Shop Price Index for May 2025 barely changed at -0.1% y/y expected –0.1%, prior –0.1% While this is not official data it was being eyed given the jump higher for the official data revealed last week: UK April CPI +3.5% vs +3.3% y/y expected Expectations for Bank of England rate cuts have been

Japan finance minister Kato: interest rates reflect various factors, but market sees rising rates as reflecting concerns about state finances Will closely monitor bond market situation including super long sector Will continue close dialogue with bond investors, market participants Not aware of any details about Softbank CEO’s idea of creating joint Japan-US sovereign wealth fund

Japan services PPI for April 2025 from the Bank of Japan: +3.1% expected +3.0%, prior +3.1% Also referred to as the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI). No sign of an inflation slowdown here. This is wholesale level inflation. Last week we got the latest consumer price reading and that’s remaining above BoJ target also: Japan

It’s a quiet calendar for Tuesday in Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking. I have clashing times for this. The calendar lists Ueda at 0000 GMT (2000 US Eastern time on Monday), but elsewhere I have seen the time listed at 0630 GMT (0230 US Eastern time on Tuesday). Ueda will be making

The People’s Bank of China requested its biggest banks to increase the use of the yuan in trade with foreign partners raising the required ratio to 40% from 25% intention is to push yuan deeper into global markets, providing an alternative to dependence on the US dollar The PBoC request is not legally binding, but

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp on Wednesday, local time 2pm which is 0200 GMT and 2200 US Eastern time (Tuesday) Governor Hawkesby’s press conference will follow an hour later Earlier previews here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut its cash rate by

All major banks in New Zealand are expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its cash rate by 25bp at its meeting on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank and Westpac are all previewing a 25 basis point cut to take the cash rate to 3.25% (currently 3.5%) ANZ comment: “I

Reports of a likely trade deal between South Africa and the US top include: South Africa plans to buy liquefied natural gas from the US, around US$1 bn/year In return, South Africa would avoid paying duty on exports of 40,000 vehicles a year to the US This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD extended higher last week, breaking above the 2024 high at 1.3433 and clearing a key swing area between 1.3411 and 1.3513 (see red circles on the chart above). That zone had previously acted as both support and resistance on the weekly chart, with historical relevance dating back to 2018. The breakout now shifts focus

I posted earlier on US stock markets closed Monday, but futures open for trade Sunday evening (US time): Stand by for Globex opening at the top of the hour ES and NQ are popping higher on the Trump tariff pause to July 9 for 50% on the EU: Trump says had some good talks with

Affiliates now drive up to 40% of revenue for top Forex brokers and retain users longer than paid ads. But many marketers are stuck in 2013, pushing flat payouts and generic links while treating affiliates like middlemen. That outdated mindset is costing them entire markets. Platforms like RevenueLab lead this shift, curating the best affiliate

Trump Media plans to raise $3B to buy cryptocurrency. The Chief Executive Officer of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG)—the parent company of Truth Social—is Devin Nunes. A former U.S. Representative from California and Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Nunes resigned from Congress in January 2022 to assume leadership of TMTG. In addition to

FoxBusiness Gasparino is tweeting that US India trade deal is almost complete. However, there may be an issue if Apple’s decision to move plants to India is not resolved. On Friday, Trump threatened a 25% tariff on Apple products if they are not manufactured in the US. Apple meanwhile was looking to move more manufacturing

According to Bloomberg, EU plans to fast track trade talks with the US There is a new impetus for the negotiations Both Trump and Ursula von der Leyen agree to fast track and keep in close contact. Pres Trump over the weekend extended the threat of 50% tariffs from June 1 to July 9. This

The European indices are closing mostly higher on the day. Even though the UK Stock Exchange is closed the derivatives point to a lower close today. The final numbers are showing: German Dax, +1.68% France’s CAC, +1.21% UK FTSE 100, -0.24% Spain’s Ibex, +0.83%. Italy’s FSE MIB 1.20% This article was written by Greg Michalowski

Wants to get to lowest tariffs possible For now, markets are buying into the idea of a reprieve until the next deadline. But zooming out, it is just 44 days left to accomplish something. Thus far, we haven’t gotten any meaningful progress throughout April and May. So, can they really find a breakthrough in just

AUD/USD has its highest since December 2, 2024. EUR, GBP (highest since February of 2022!), NZD, CAD, CNH all rising also. My headline remark about the People’s Bank of China ‘propping up’ the dollar is a jest. BUT … the PBoC didi flip its damping today to slow the rise of the CNY against the

As the European traders look to exit for the day, technically today, the EURUSD rallied modestly on the day, but stalled just ahead of a key resistance zone near 1.14238, with the high reaching 1.14181 before retreating. That swing level remains a critical barrier, and price action has turned choppy as the pair hovers around

Headlines: European indices jump at the open as Trump delays EU tariffs Macron says there was a good exchange between Trump and von der Leyen EU says ‘zero-for-zero’ proposal is still on table in trade talks with the US EU spokesperson says call with Trump was initiated by von der Leyen German economy minister says

The OPEC+ countries will bring forward the June 1 meeting to May 31. This is according to Reuters citing three sources. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A couple of snippets from analysts on Friday, that have proved prescient, comments indicating Trump’s tariff threats being viewed as hollow. Vanguard: investors expect the steep 50% tariff proposal on imports from the E.U. to be negotiated down, similarly to what happened with China market has slowed down now because it’s happened before, and we

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The move matches up with the change in risk flows after Trump agreed to delay the 50% tariffs on the EU to 9 July. His initial decision on Friday to press for the tariffs to go into effect on 1 June helped gold to move up at the end of last week. The drop today

S&P 500 Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (May 26, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for ES Futures Traders Today S&P 500 Futures (Ticker: ES1!) at time of analysis: 5,890 Bullish above: 5,866 Bearish below: 5,835 Primary Bias: Bullish (but extended) Partial Targets (Longs): 5,883, 5,904, 5,924 Partial Targets (Shorts): 5,826, 5,817, 5,794, 5,768 Extended Runner Target

Not sure if the picture will be “clear enough by September” Have to see what the data says, and also how trade negotiations progress If US can strike trade deals in the coming months, that should “provide a lot of clarity” Immigration policy is also causing businesses to rethink investment plans In other words, he’s

The two sides had a meeting last week as noted here at the time. There’s no other detail in the headline, so it’s hard to see how else the discussion went. But in any case, we’ll likely only see higher-level meetings between the two later next month after the South Korean presidential election (which will

Eurostoxx +1.5% Germany DAX +1.8% France CAC 40 +1.4% Spain IBEX +1.1% Italy FTSE MIB +1.5% The hope now is that Trump is really just threatening with the 50% tariffs in order to get a deal at the end of it all. It’s sort of his go to negotiating tactic it would seem when it

Hamas has agreed to a Gaza ceasefire proposal from U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, according to a Palestinian official speaking to Reuters. The agreement marks a potential turning point in the ongoing conflict, with conditions including a temporary truce and hostage release. Negotiations are set to continue during the ceasefire to work toward a lasting

However, when asked about the details the spokesperson declined to provide any details on what was discussed. Besides that, EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is to have a call with US trade representative Howard Lutnick later today. So, we’ll have to wait and see if that will offer any headlines after. This article was written

It is Spring Bank Holiday in the UK and Memorial Day holiday in the US. Peace to those that died in the fight for freedom and to their families. Today, the USD moved lower but has since retraced the declines to start the NA session.. The US banks, stock and bond markets are closed but

German DAX futures +1.4% The early moves are pointing to a solid bounce back from the Friday drop, which was also triggered by Trump. At the time, he said he was going to press the EU with 50% tariffs on 1 June. And earlier today, he said that he is now going to delay that

Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (May 26, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for Bitcoin Traders Today Bitcoin Futures (Ticker: MBT1!) at the time of this analysis: $110,180 Bullish above: $108,800 Bearish below: $108,500 Primary Bias: Bullish (but stretched) Partial Targets (Longs): $110,970, $111,250, $111,900 Partial Targets (Shorts): $107,790, $107,550, $106,435, $105,555 Extended Targets: Long runner:

Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke in a symposium with Chinese firms in Jakarta over the weekend. Info from state news agency Xinhua, via Reuters:. China is weighing new policy tools in the face of an international economic and trade order that is “under severe impact” “The fragmentation of industrial and supply chains has deepened, and

This week there are a number of retailers reporting earnings which will be scrutinized for impacts from tariffs. However, the biggest release will be on Wednesday after the close when Nvidia will announce their earnings. Below is a look at some of the companies reporting: Wednesday Before Open: Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) Abercrombie & Fitch

Its Spring Bank holiday in the UK and Memorial Day in the US. Markets are closed in those countries. Although the CME will offer limited hours for Globex. Its open now, for example, with equity index futures supported by Trump’s backing away from his June 1 imposition of 50% tariffs on the European Union, giving

ECBs Lagarde from the text from a speech to be delivered in Germany Current ECB Policy Lagarde did not directly address ECB interest rate policy or inflation in this speech. Economic Outlook for Europe Global fragmentation and the shift away from multilateralism pose risks to Europe’s export-dependent economy: Warned that protectionism and dollar instability could

With it being a UK and US holiday, it is akin to an extended weekend for markets in general. As such, there aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. That said, the big news over the weekend comes from Trump’s flipping and flopping over EU tariffs. On Friday, he said that

FX option expiries for 26 May 10am New York cut China mulling new economic policy tools says Chinese Premier Li Qiang Goldman Sachs: Chinese stocks are likely to gain further support from a strengthening yuan Citi 0 – 3 month price target for gold back to $3,500/oz Fed’s Kashkari – Uncertainty top of mind for

Domestic sight deposits CHF 435.7 bn vs CHF 434.8 bn prior There’s little change in the overall sight deposits in the past week. However, this will be an interesting spot to watch in the weeks/months ahead as the franc continues to keep stronger. And that’s a conundrum for the SNB as they face a battle

Risk-on or risk-off, the dollar is failing to find much confidence in this market. The lack of faith in the dollar continues to underscore a confidence issue and lack of stability. The latter in particular is a concern, with bigger funds rotating out of US assets amid Trump’s policy incoherence. The greenback continues to struggle

Chinese equities are likely to gain further support from a strengthening yuan, which has remained resilient despite ongoing trade tensions with the US, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. They noted that for every 1% rise in the yuan against the US dollar, Chinese stocks could climb about 3%, driven by improved earnings prospects and increased

Country Garden Holdings, formerly China’s top property developer by contracted sales, will appear in a Hong Kong court on Monday to request more time to progress its $14.1 billion offshore debt restructuring. The company has reportedly gained backing from creditors representing over 70% of its debt. However, as of May 22, key bank lenders had

Japanese Prime Minister spoke on Sunday: aims to advance tariff talks with the US goal of achieving an outcome during the Group of Seven summit in June said there has been progress in negotiations willingness to cooperate in shipbuilding Japan Prime Minister Ishiba held phone talks with Trump on Friday, a 45 minute call. Also

In the evolving world of prop trading, trust isn’t optional — it’s essential. That’s why Funded Trading Plus (FT+) being named Most Trusted Online Trading Firm UK 2025 by International Business Magazine is a big deal. This award marks FT+ as a standout in a competitive field where transparency can be hard to find. Founded

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This was the exact same line put out in the weeks prior, all before we got Trump’s 50% tariffs threat on Friday last week. The other parts of the proposal that was reportedly rejected by Trump were to jointly remove tariffs on industrial goods, to boost access for some US agricultural products and to co-develop

Citi 0 – 3 month price target for gold back to $3,500/oz expect price to consolidate between $3,100/oz and $3,500/oz Citi cite the latest tariff escalation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was definitely a hectic weekend surely in Europe after Trump threatened 50% tariffs for 1 June on Friday. The good news now is that the decision is delayed to 9 July but that’s still not a lot of breathing room. That especially when you consider that the US and EU have failed to really

CNH is rising still, hitting highs not since early November 2024: This further extension for the yuan comes as the PBoC ‘flips’ its damping in the CNY from support for the CNY to an effort to slow its rise: PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1833 (vs. estimate at 7.1737) This article

A slow start to the week is expected, with a bank holiday in the U.K. for the observance of Spring Bank Holiday, and in the U.S. for Memorial Day. On Tuesday, Japan will release the BoJ Core CPI y/y, while in the U.S., we will get the durable goods orders m/m and CB consumer confidence.

Trump says had some good talks with Iran, says had some real progress. I posted on this earlier: Update – Iran and US wrapped up a fifth round of nuclear talks – “constructive” While soothing noisec are being made the two sides didn’t agree a date to meet again. — More from Trump: thinks the

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke with the New York Times. The Times is gated, but in brief: Trump’s tariffs the “biggest headwind” for the country the “most important imperative” is for Canada to reach a new trade deal with the US impact of the tariffs isn’t showing up yet in economic data, policymakers will

On Monday, May 26th, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq (and other equity exchanges) markets will be closed for Memorial Day. However, CME Globex futures will have extended trading hours from Sunday, May 25th, at 6:00 PM (ET), and again from 6:00 PM (ET) on Monday, May 26th: This includes the E-mini S&P

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari is in Tokyo: Uncertainty top of mind for Fed, US businesses In waiting to observe mode Tariffs shock is stagflationary Extended tariffs raise risk of stagflation Question now is scale of stagflation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump recommends a 50% tariff on EU starting on June 1 (Friday) Trump agrees to extend EU tariff deadline to July 9 (Monday) So, what’d I miss? Well, definitely just in time for more Trump shenanigans it seems. His flip flopping isn’t new and is the same tactic he deployed when announcing the reciprocal tariffs

EU’s von der Leyen says she had a call with Trump, discussed trade. Von der Leyen said the EU needs time until July 9 to reach a good deal. Trump had a tariff tantrum over the EU on Friday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 May: Pres. Trump is not partial to who he tariffs

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis spoke with CNN on Sunday: “My primary focus now is spending. This is completely unacceptable. Current projections are $2.2 trillion per year deficit,” he said. “There should be a goal of this Republican Senate to reduce the deficit, not increase it. We’re increasing it.” “I think we have enough to stop

The nuclear talks between Iran and the US were preceded by blunt remarks from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday: The talks concluded with no deal, of course, but were described as constructive, Via various media reports: Iran: “We have just completed one of the most professional rounds of talks… We firmly stated Iran‘s

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, a little strength for the USD and JPY EUR/USD 1.1361 USD/JPY 142.45, yen a few tics to the better to open the week after its strong Friday GBP/USD

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China’s ambassador to Australia has criticised Canberra’s plan to return Darwin Port to local ownership, arguing the Chinese firm running it, Landbridge, should not be penalised. Prime Minister Albanese said in April the government would force a sale on national interest grounds. The port was leased to Chinese company Landbridge in 2015 for 99 years.

Trump’s comments are here, wide-ranging (Iran, wants a list of student names, tax bill): Trump says had some good talks with Iran, says had some real progress EU head von der Leyen requested the extension: EU’s Von der Leyen spoke with Trump, said EU needs time until July 9 to reach a good deal Trump

Allianz Global Investors, USD650bn under management, is wary of US investment: “For investors, the message is clear: The US may no longer offer the reliable investment runway it did just months ago.” “Project economics, supply-chain commitments, and capital flows may now pivot toward more stable jurisdictions like Canada or the EU, unless clarity is quickly

It’s a sparse data agenda to kick off the new week in Asia. The data due from Japan is lower-tier only and unlikely to move JPY too much upon release. Note the holidays on the calendar today include the UK and US. Markets will be closed in the these countries. For SGD traders there is

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave Baccalaureate remarks before the Princeton University Baccalaureate Ceremony. I gave the heads up for this speech on Friday but noted it seemed unlikely to be pertinent to traders: Given the venue and event, perhaps he won’t be making comments on his outlook for the economy nor monetary policy. There

I’m thrilled to be headed to Cape Town, South Africa next week for the Finance Magnates Africa Summit. If you’re in the area, I’d love to see you there. It’s a great conference for both people working in the industry and traders. I’ll be on panels on gold/oil plus one where I will shares some

Mon: US Holiday (Memorial Day), UK Holiday (Bank Holiday) Tue: NBH Policy Announcement; German GfK (Jun), French Prelim. CPI (May), EZ Consumer Confidence (May), US Durable Goods (Apr), Dallas Fed (May) Wed: RBNZ Policy Announcement, FOMC Minutes (May), Riksbank Financial Stability Report, OPEC JMMC; Australian CPI (Apr), German Unemployment (May), US MBA (w/e 19th May),

US President Trump appears to have green-lighted the Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel. It’s a deal that he opposed on the campaign trail and was killed by President Biden after the election. However Nippon and US Steel sued to keep the deal alive and more-recently sweetened the pot. The rejection of the deal was

It doesn’t sound like the US and EU make a quick deal on trade that will drop the 50% tariffs that Trump recommended today and to go into effect on June 1. The US is fully engaged and committed to securing a deal that works for both EU commission remains ready to work in good

Closing changes on the day: S&P 500 -0.7% Nasdaq Comp -1.0% DJIA -0.6% Russell 2000 -0.3% Toronto TSX Comp +0.1% On the week: S&P 500 -2.6% Nasdaq -2.5% DJIA -2.5% TSX -0.4% Russell -3.5% For a week that began with a US debt downgrade and ended with a fresh trade war with the EU, a

Crude oil is settling the day up $0.33 on the day at $61.53. The high today reached $61.84. The low was at $60.06. For the trading week, the price is closing down marginally by about – $0.34 or -0.54%. The high for the week was at $64.14. The low was at $60.06. The decline this

Bank of America maintains a bullish USD/JPY outlook, projecting the pair to rise to 155 by end-2025, citing a mix of domestic political, fiscal, and trade-related risks in Japan. They expect JPY and JGBs to weaken over the summer as structural pressures mount. Key Points: Japan-US Trade Talks Stalled:Lack of progress in bilateral trade negotiations

Trump appears to approve the Nippon takeover of US Steel — with a healthy dose of spin Crude oil settles up $0.33 at $61.53 Trump: I’m not looking for a deal with EU, it’s set at 50% Baker Hughes oil rig count -8 to 465 More Bessent: Sovereign Wealth Fund is on pause Fed’s Cook:

Could talk about delays to EU tariffs if they start moving to the US Talks with EU are slow moving I’m not looking for a deal, it’s set at 50% Numerous other deals ready to be signed Would also tariff Samsung and others who make iPhones Cook said he would go to India but there

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) has warned that proposed U.S. tariffs on foreign-made chips could jeopardize its massive US$165 billion investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Arizona. In a public comment submitted to the U.S. Commerce Department, the company cautioned that reduced demand resulting from the tariffs could impact the viability of its U.S.

Credit Agricole sees the return of the “USD frown”—the relationship between USD and US equity/FI performance—driving near-term USD weakness. But they dismiss fears of a full-blown crisis akin to the UK’s “Truss moment,” citing continued global demand for Treasuries and the USD’s reserve status. Key Points: USD Selling on Risk Aversion:Investors are selling USD as

The USDCAD remains under selling pressure after failing to sustain gains above key resistance near 1.4009–1.4026 and the 200-day MA last week. This week, the price on Wednesday fell below a swing area between 1.38917 to 1.3904. The break and hold below this zone gave sellers the green light to drive the pair even lower

Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (May 23, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for Bitcoin Futures Today Current Price (MBT) at the time of this analysis: $110,970 Intraday Bias: Bearish below $111,383 (today’s VWAP) Bullish Threshold: $111,800 and above Bearish Threshold: Below today’s VWAP of $111,383 Key Bearish Targets: $110,470 → $109,715 → $108,750 → $106,875

More from Treasury Secretary Bessent: US Sovereign Wealth Fund is on pause. I may be wrong but the idea stemmed from the receipts from the External Revenue Service and perhaps from the savings from DOGE. IN reality, if tariffs are too high, they won’t provide any revenue as they become embargos instead. Moreover, if the

European Central Bank Lagarde is attending the meeting in Banff with finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 countries. The full official summit is in June. Lagarde calling for the full implementation of the free trade agreement between Canada and the European Union (EU), Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) warned that international

Prior 92 (revised to 91) Consumer confidence has been falling steadily since the start of the year amid the trade war. We haven’t reached the trough yet but things could start to reverse in the next months. We’ll see. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

B2BROKER, a leading global fintech solutions provider, has announced the launch of Liquidity Provider Turnkey, a comprehensive solution designed to help financial institutions seamlessly enter the Prime-of-Prime (PoP) space. The product arrives at a time when market activity in both forex and digital assets continues to rise, the financial market becomes more inclusive, and brokers

Oil rig count: -8 to 465 (4th straight weekly decline) Natural gas:-2 to 98 Total rigs -10 to 566 Drill. Drill. Drill has not exactly been happening. Yet oil prices are still down on the year with the price down -14.51% or -$10.42 from the closing level at the end of 2024 ($71.81). The current

The AUDUSD is pushing higher today, extending above Wednesday’s high of 0.6469 and reaching a session peak of 0.6494. The pair is up 1.26% on the day, with an 87-pip trading range, well above the 22-day average of 72 pips—highlighting strong momentum in favor of buyers. Technically, the rally began in the early Asian session

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The trade war was never going to be one-and-done. Trump loves tariffs too much and has too long of a list of grievances. The lack of progress on trade deals over the past two weeks was a red flag and the 90-day deadline was ticking ever closer. He’s left himself an ‘out’ here by delaying

The EURUSD moved lower on the back of the post from Pres.Trump at the start of the US session that he was proposing a 50% tariff on EU imports. Later the administration started to walk that idea back as it “just a suggestion” (i.e. part of the art of the deal). Technically, the price moved

USD/CAD is flirting with a break of the lows of the year. The US dollar is sliding broadly today but the Canadian dollar is getting an extra lift from March and April retail sales data. The numbers were solid and come on the heels of a hotter CPI. Combined, that has the odds of a

I have a close eye on USD/CAD today as the pair steadily slides as part of the broader US dollar selloff. The loonie is so far underperforming the AUD and NZD today in percentage terms but it’s also brushing up against an important level. Moreover, the market may be hesitant to push though with US

Fed’s Cook is out saying: Seeing some signs of stress among low – moderate income households Sufficiently large income shock could push up defaults, lead to losses for lenders. Treasury market function orderly during April volatility. Watching commercial real estate market closely. Comments are not anything new This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Musalem: Inflation is stills above target Today’s world is very different from the pandemic, one in five chance at most that Fed Schmid: Will lean very much on hard data in making interest rates decisions, allows for less focus on forecasts Fed needs to be careful how much emphasis it puts on soft data The

If you missed it, Trump earlier ‘recommended’ a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1. Trump believes EU proposals have not been of good quality Would like to have Apple help US to make semiconductor supply chain better Trump trying to bring back precision manufacturing to the US Says US is ‘far along’ with

The NZDUSD is stretching to new highs for the day and also new highs for the week (highest level since May 8). That move has taken the price above the 0.59664 from Wednesday, which also was near the high price going back to last week on May 14. Getting above that level is a bullish

In the European session, the main highlight is the UK April Retail Sales report. Retail Sales ex-Fuel Y/Y is expected at 4.4% vs. 3.3% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior. Retail sales rose for the third consecutive month in March and the data has been generally good. This is

Trump recommends a 50% tariff on EU. Says EU has been hard to deal with. Tariff would start on June 1st. No tariff if product is built or manufactured in US. Our discussion with them going nowhere. It’s not been a secret that the EU would have been harder to deal with and Trump seems

Japan inflation readings for April 2025: Headline rate is 3.6% y/y expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% CPI excluding Fresh Food 3.5% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.2% CPI excluding Fresh Food, Energy 3.0% y/y expected 3.0%, prior 2.9% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The advanced March report was +0.7% Prior was -0.4% (revised to -0.5%) Ex-autos -0.7% vs 0.0% expected Prior ex-autos +0.5% (revised to +0.6%) Advance April report +0.5% The RBC survey on Canadian consumers last week hinted at a resilient consumer in April and that’s what the advance number shows. On the flipside, that core number

Expect we will be negotiating with China in person again There is a Laffer Curve for tariffs A lot of these non-tariff barriers are coming down We don’t know where Sees ‘several hundred billion’ per year in tariff revenue my sense is that int he next several weeks we will have several large deals announced

Musalem: Businesses expect higher prices for inputs and outputs, Fed is watching that carefully Business executives are trying to figure out how to manager uncertainty Schmid: Uncertainty is being driven by the tariff conversation We’ve heard similar comments from the Fed over and over. Nothing is changing. This article was written by Adam Button at

EUR/USD 1.1400 (EUR 1.25bn) 1.1345 (EUR 882mn) 1.1330 (EUR 964mn) 1.1300 (EUR 1.84bn) 1.1275 (EUR 1.50 bn) USD/JPY 145.00 (US$ 2.81bn) 144.00 (US$ 2.37bn) 143.00 (US$ 1.76bn) GBP/USD 1.3600 (GBP 379mn) 1.3500 (GBP 227mn) 1.3400 (GBP 298mn) USD/CHF 0.8300 (CHF 285mn) 0.8250 (CHF 494mn) USD/CAD 1.4015 (US$ 1.67bn) 1.3870 (US$ 575mn) 1.3565 (US$ 795mn) AUD/USD

Prior was 724K (revised to 670K) Sales monthly change 10.9% vs +7.4% prior (revised to +2.6%) Rising long-term yields and borrowing costs aren’t helping the housing market. Shares of home builders have struggled badly this year. This is a surprising number but it looks like some sales have simply been shifted by a month as

The USDCHF continues to trade with a bearish tilt after a series of failed upside attempts near key technical levels. The 100-hour moving average (currently near 0.8284) served as strong resistance earlier this week, capping rallies yesterday most recently, and helping to turn buyers into sellers into the day close. The recent decline seen today,

Today’s stock market reveals a challenging environment for technology stocks, with mixed outcomes across financial and healthcare sectors. Investors witness a dynamic trading landscape, highlighting the need for keen strategy and portfolio management. 🏛️ 📉 Tech Sector: Widespread Declines The technology sector is leading today’s downturn, with Microsoft (MSFT) experiencing a drop of 0.73% and

Investor Update: Bulgaria Advances Toward Euro Adoption – Symbolic but Limited Impact on Euro Currency Core News: Bulgaria is making steady progress toward adopting the euro by January 1, 2026. The country has met most Maastricht criteria, including public debt limits, fiscal discipline, and exchange rate stability. The main remaining challenge is elevated inflation, while

Japan PM Ishiba on his call with Trump No change to our stance on U.S. tariffs Discussed U.S. tariffs with President Trump Discussed diplomacy, security with Trump as well There might be occasion where I’ll visit U.S. for in-person talks with President Trump No change to our stance of demanding elimination of tariffs No change

S&P 500 futures are down 1.5% shortly before the open while Nasdaq futures are down 1.8% as Apple falls 3.5% on Trump tariff threats on iPhones. It’s a long weekend in the US so trade could taper off into the weekend but a big question will be: When to buy the dip? The lesson of

Companies want some consistency Leaders have to put pencils down because of so much change A 50% EU tariff is an order of magnitude different from current situation Tariff rates that high would be scary for the suppl;y chain There is anxiety among firms that continued tariff announcements would disrupt the supply chain and lead

The EURUSD is moving to the downside reversing the gains from earlier today after Pres. Trump said he would impose a 50% tariff on EU imports into the US starting June 1. He also said he would impose a 25% tariff on Apple iPhones not manufactured in the US. The climb down the mountain restarts(and

The USD is slipping vs. other major FX in Asia trade. Apart from what has been posted there isn’t any fresh news. EUR, AUD, CAD, GBP, NZD all higher. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are losing a few tics also. EUR/USD: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing the day mixed with the Dow and S&P little changed (down marginally) and the Nasdaq index higher. A snapshoe of the closing levels shows: Dow Industiral Average fell -1.35 points or 0.0% at 41859.09 S&P -2.6 points or -0.04% at 5842.01 Nasdaq index rose 53.09 points or 0.28%

I don’t think there is any secret on what’s happening between the US and EU at the moment; Bessent spelled it out. He said the EU has been moving too slowly on trade and Trump wants to ‘light a fire’ under the EU. The message was strategically timed ahead of a call today that was

The knee-jerk reaction to Trump threatening tariffs on the EU was to buy the US dollar on a number of fronts but that’s quickly faded. Cable is now trading near the highs, AUD has bounced all the way back and the loonie is at its best levels. Even the euro — which is the target

ICYMI (’cause I did!) – Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 to reach 6,500 by mid-2026. Morgan Stanley has lifted its forecast for the S&P 500, projecting the index will climb to 6,500 by mid-2026. However, the bank cautions that investors may need to remain patient, as near-term gains are likely to be held back

Iran’s Foreign Minister announced via social media that he is heading to Rome for a fifth round of indirect talks with the United States, underscoring the urgency and clarity of Tehran’s negotiating stance. In the message, he framed the path to a potential agreement in blunt terms: “Zero nuclear weapons = we DO have a

Trump threatens tariffs on Apple if products not made in US ECB’s Lane: Confident services inflation will come down How have interest rates expectations changed after this week’s data? Bulgaria Advances Toward Euro Adoption ECB Q1 2025 negotiated wage indicator +2.38% vs +4.12% in Q4 2024 ECB’s Rehn: June cut ‘appropriate’ if data confirm stabilisation

Fed: 51 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 52 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 39 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 34 bps (70% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 68 bps (57% probability of rate

S&P 500 Futures Analysis – tradeCompass for May 23, 2025 Current price at the time of this analysis: $5,857 Bearish Below: $5,860 Bullish Above: $5,865 Bias: Bearish at current level The S&P 500 futures are trading in bearish territory today, just under the $5,860 key threshold. According to the Trade Compass methodology, we maintain a

UBS has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,000 and now sees the index reaching 6,400 by mid-2026, citing stronger-than-expected first quarter earnings and an improving U.S. economic outlook. boosted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the benchmark index to $260 in 2025 and $280 in 2026. The upward revision underscores

iPhone’s that will be sold in the US will be manufactured and built in US, not India or anyplace else. If that’s not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the US. AAPL stock is down on the news. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

ECB Q1 2025 negotiated wage indicator +2.38% Prior +4.12% in Q4 2024 Wage growth is a lagging indicator but will keep the policymakers’ conviction on a return to target high. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato with the remarks. Yesterday the reasonably unremarkable news that Kato had met with Bessent kicked the legs out from under the yen for an hour or so, As I said in the wrap: But, that’s all it took for USD/JPY to race from around 143.60 to highs above 144.30 in just

June cut ‘appropriate’ if data confirm stabilisation of inflation, weak growth. Given the uncertain environment, the ECB should stick to its data-dependent approach. The next inflation data for the Eurozone should be key but I still think that a cut in June would be taken as a mistake by the market and lead to further

Discussions focused on improving dialogue on tariffs, fixing problems in global grading system IMF, with G7 encouragement, agreed to take on more work on global imblances Also from the Canadian finance minister: G7 on good track to reduce instability and uncertainty G7 ministers have more work to do on supply chains, financial crimes, growth policies

Wall Street Journal (gated) report. Major U.S. banks are exploring a joint stablecoin to compete with the crypto industry. Banks see an opportunity in using stablecoins for faster transactions, like in cross-border payments, but there are still security and regulatory concerns. One possible model discussed would allow other banks to use the stablecoin. The bank

Confident services inflation will come down. Services inflation in the Eurozone has been stuck around 4% for well over a year. You can see it in the chart below. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.4% (revised to +0.1%) Retail sales +5.0% vs +4.5% y/y expected Prior +2.6% (revised to +1.9%) Retail sales ex autos, fuel +1.3% vs 0.3% m/m expected Prior +0.5% (revised to +0.2%) Retail sales ex autos, fuel +5.3% vs +4.4% y/y expected Prior +3.3% (revised to +2.6%) These are very strong numbers. Not sure why

Gold Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (May 23, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for Gold Futures Traders As of this analysis, Gold Futures (GC) is trading between $3,325–$3,326. Today’s strategy prioritizes reversal trading setups over breakout momentum plays. That means we expect gold price action to respect its recent range, offering better opportunities for fade trades—long

JPMorgan is noting a broad-based recovery in China, with encouraging signs of renewed momentum in markets and rising foreign investor interest in diversification, according to Rita Chan, the bank’s co-senior country officer for China. Speaking at the Global China Summit in Shanghai, Chan pointed to a pickup in foreign direct investment and a rebound in

New Zealand Retail Sales Q1 2025 Retail Sales +0.8% q.q expected +0.1%, prior +0.9% +0.7% y/y expected +0.1%, prior +0.2% Core Retail Sales +0.4% q/q expected +0.7%, prior +1.4% NZD unmoved: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.2% That’s even better than the preliminary estimates and makes sense given the ECB rate cuts and fiscal boost. We should see even better figures going forward. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan tariff negotiator Akazawa is heading to the US for a fourth round: Japan economy minister Akazawa heading back to the US around May 30 for more trade talks Says today: no change to Japan’s stance to request elimination of US tariffs but want to reach agreement Japan has its own interests to protect This

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump does not have to reinstate two senior labor agency officials he fired, dealing a blow to their legal efforts to reverse the terminations. The decision, though temporary, signals support for Trump’s broad claims of presidential authority over federal appointments. The officials led agencies meant to operate independently from

US Deputy Secretary of State spoke with Chinese counterpart on Thursday Acknowledged the importance of the bilateral relationship to the people of both countries Discussed a wide range of issues of mutual interest, and agreed on the importance of keeping open lines of communication Bland sort of readout. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Japan Prime Minister Ishiba, Trump held phone talks, a 45 minute conversation. Jiji with the report. This is ahead of the next round of talks stating next week: Japan economy minister Akazawa heading back to the US around May 30 for more trade talks He is sticking to his guns: Japan Akazawa: Japan to request

I see a June rate cut and then pause. After June, the next fully priced in cut is in December. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut cash rate by 25 bps to 3.25% on May 28, said 29 of 30 economists RBNZ to cut cash rate to 2.75% in Q4 2025, median forecast shows RBNZ to cut cash rate to 3.00% in Q3 2025, say 18 of 27 economists This via Reuters latest polling.

China Council for Promotion of International Trade president met with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on May 22 exchanged views on promoting exchanges between China, U.S. business communities and deepening cooperation in financial investment I posted earlier on JP Morgan ramping up their view on China: JP Morgan highlights signs of recovery and renewed foreign interest

A research note from Citi, via a CNBC report, paints a bleak picture for the economy in the months ahead: economy to worsen in H2 2025 “As the full effects of the tariffs come online — likely over the next few months — demand could face a double blow. The tariffs could reduce real purchasing

We had some mixed data from Japan yesterday. From back in March, a nice positive surprise: Japan machinery orders surge, +13% m/m (expected -1.6%) And as an early sign for May, not so good, it’ll be the 11th consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing PMI if the final reading confirms: Japan flash May manufacturing

GfK’s consumer confidence for May 2025 is -20 expected -22, and -23 in April survey long-run average is -11 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan tariff negotiator Akazawa intends to visit the US around May 30 for fourth round of talks Reuters with the info citing unnamed sources This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump pushes EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties. US trade representative Greer preparing to tell EU counterpart Sefcovic that recent “explanatory note” falls short of US expectations. US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions. Well, it’s been pretty clear that trade deals with EU and Japan were going to be harder

Japan PM Ishiba: No change to our stance on U.S. tariffs Japan Prime Minister Ishiba held phone talks with Trump China Council for Promotion of International Trade president met with JP Morgan CEO Dimon Iran’s Foreign Minister lays down conditions for a deal with the US ahead of weekend talks S&P 500 Futures Analysis Today

US May S&P Global flash services PMI 52.3 vs 50.8 expected US initial jobless claims 227K vs 230k estimate US April existing home sales 4.00m vs 4.10m expected Canada April producer price index -0.8% m/m vs -0.5% expected Fed’s Waller: If tariffs are closer to 10%, then economy is good shape for 2H BOC’s Macklem:

Japan’s new Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said on Friday he aimed to get rice on store shelves for under 3,000 yen for a 5-kg bag Report via Japanese media, Jiji. plans to bypass auctions, selling stockpiled rice directly to retailers to curb inflation I think the price at present is north of 4000 yen for

A statement from the US Department of State: Deputy Secretary Landau’s Call with Chinese Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau spoke today with Chinese Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu. They acknowledged the importance of the bilateral relationship to the people of both countries and the world, discussed a

On Sunday at 1940 GMT / 1440 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gives Baccalaureate remarks before the Princeton University Baccalaureate Ceremony, in Princeton, N.J Given the venue and event, perhaps he won’t be making comments on his outlook for the economy nor monetary policy. But, if he does, that time is well

The price of crude oil is settling down -0.37 at $61.20. The price was pressured today helped by a report that OPEC+ members are considering a potential output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. While this is one of the options on the table, no agreement has been finalized. Looking at the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The US VP JD Vance will be speaking at the Bitcoin 2025 convention in Las Vegas on May 28. In March, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, marking a significant shift in U.S. digital asset policy. The establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is trading in a tight 50-pip range today—well below the 21-day average range of 101 pips. That puts today’s action at less than half of the typical daily volatility, suggesting a market waiting for a catalyst. The high for the day reached 1.3440, just shy of the April swing high at 1.3441 (and

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Shared with G7 that we should be highly committed with price stability Yeah, right. As if anyone amongst the G7 is going to say they are not committed to price stability. More interestingly from Ueda: Won’t comment on interest rate situation, will closely monitor market Yesterday we had a Bank

Everything is going right for bitcoin at the moment. The US dollar is weakening on questions about unsustainable debt There is wide and broad political instability, with the US and China in a trade war Risk appetite is good with the Nasdaq steadily recovering from Liberation Day What I really want to highlight though are

Yesterday’s soft 20-year auction and the resulting rout in equities has everyone watching bonds a bit more closely. The front end of the curve is more-sensitive to the Fed and less sensitive to government debt but given the circumstances, next week’s slate will still be watched closely: Tuesday, $69 billion of 2s Wednesday $70 billion

European official: US was not convinced about lowering G7 oil price During G7 finance meeting. US position was that oil prices are going down, and already hurting Russia. US does not exclude idea of lowering price Level, discussions will continue. Crude oil prices are trading down $0.42 at $61.16. The low price today reached $60.27.

Goldman Sachs maintains its bearish outlook on the US dollar for the remainder of 2025, despite a mildly improved US economic outlook. Structural trade policy shifts and global asset reallocation trends continue to weigh on the greenback. Key Points: Trade Policy Still a Drag: Although Goldman has revised its tariff rate assumptions lower, the US

It’s not exactly the most-lively day in stock markets but the bulls will take the win after yesterday’s selloff. The S&P 500 is up 0.4% to the best levels of the day. Leading the way are: TSLA +3.0% UAL +2.9% GOOG +2.4% TGT +2.6% AMZN +1.8% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If he had talked about the outlook, he would have said the same thing as everyone else: That they’re waiting to see what happens with tariffs and economic data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -5 This has bounced around but it’s above the -13 low in February. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa is scheduled to visit the US from Friday-Sunday for tariff negotiations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US House votes to advance revised tax plan in procedural vote. US House votes to open debate on Trump tax bill with vote on passage to follow. Here’s the plan shared by Haley Talbot (CNN) on her X account: At approx 12:45 – 1:45 a.m., vote on the adoption of the rule Next, the House

Stocks appear to be keying off the dip in Treasury yields. S&P 500 futures are now flat after a 30 point round trip in negative territory. The bounce comes after US 30-year yields backed off the 2023 high of 5.17% and are down to 5.11%. One good sign I would note in the pre-market movers

White House comments: Discussed potential deal with Iran Trump believes things are moving in the right direction The week started out with a report saying Israel was preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities but there hasn’t been any follow up to that report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY has rebounded from recent lows and is now stretching toward the first upside target zone — the high of a swing area and the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart near 144.097. This level marks the beginning of a cluster of closely stacked technical resistance levels that could slow or stall further upside

High yield 2.22% WI level at the time of the auction 2.22% Tail 0.0 bps Bid to cover 2.36X vs six month average 2.39X average 16.7% vs six month average of 20.7% 71.4% vs six month average of 68.9% Dealer 11.9% vs six month average of 10.4% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

With all the concern over the negative impact of on-off-on-off- (where are we now?) tariffs the PMIs should, if such concerns are valid, begin to reflect in the flash PMIs due today. We get readings from Australia and Japan. As a side note, coming up into Europe time is speech from Reserve Bank of Australia

Yesterday, the EURUSD saw a bullish attempt as price moved above the 50% retracement level at 1.13183, but buyers failed to hold the break, turning momentum back toward the downside in the short term. That failure gave sellers a renewed edge, at least in the short term. The pair is now approaching a key technical

Closing changes on the day: German DAX, -0.5% France’s CAC -0.7% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.6% Spain’s IBEX -0.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.8% European stock markets sold off early but recovered as yields sagged. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD broke above a key resistance level at 1.3904 on May 8, marking the end of a multi-week consolidation range. Two days later, the pair tested the 200-day moving average near 1.4015, a critical technical barrier. Sellers leaned against that level on back-to-back sessions, preventing a sustained breakout and triggering a reversal. By May

The NZDUSD continues to find solid support near the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.58957. This level has repeatedly attracted buyers, helping to stall the downside and keep the pair within a consolidative range. To turn the tide more clearly in favor of the bulls, price needs to break above a cluster

Prior was 4.02m Sales change vs -5.9% expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rate in the U.S. have edged higher, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising to 6.86% for the week ending May 22, 2025, up from 6.81% the previous week. This marks the highest level since mid-February, reflecting ongoing concerns over inflation and federal debt levels. Although higher it is below the

The US House is voting… First the motion to recommit, then comes passage of the reconciliation package. h/t Jake Sherman on X You can follow live here This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.5%) PPI y/y % vs 4.7% prior Raw materials price index -3.0% m/m vs -1.0% prior Raw materials price index -3.6% y/y vs +3.9% prior The odds of a June Bank of Canada rate cut were at 32% before this report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

North Korea fires multiple cruise missiles toward East Sea Reports from South Korea media, Yonhap. Earlier: Heads to roll in North Korea – Kim sees negligence and irresponsibility This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Members expressed increased confidence that inflation would return to target over the medium term. Members attached a higher probability to the possibility that the trade shock would be inflationary beyond the short term. Increased confidence that inflation would return to target in line with the March baseline projections. This pointed to upside risks to inflation

Schedule per Haley Talbot (CNN) post on X (ET time): Approx 5:30 – 6:00 am, vote on the following: 1) Motion to Recommit 2) Passage of H.R. 1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act 3) H.R. 1701 – Strategic Ports Reporting Act Walk off the floor: 6:00 – 6:30am Recess begins, members return June 3rd

Prior week initial jobless claims 229K Initial jobless claims 227K vs 230K estimate 4 week moving average initial jobless claims 231.5K vs 230.5K last week Prior week continuing claims 1.881M revised to 1.867M Continuing claims 1.903M vs 1.885M estimate 4- week MA 1,887.5 vs 1,870M last week. The largest increases in initial claims for the

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a pronounced upward trend in the technology and communications sectors, with notable performances from key players. Here’s a closer look at the dynamics shaping today’s market landscape. 📈 Technology Sector: Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) are shining, up 1.24% and 1.07% respectively. This surge reflects renewed investor confidence

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing (preliminary) for May 2025 49.0 prior 48.7 if confirmed in the final at 49.0 it’d be the 11th consecutive month of contraction for the sector Some points from the manufacturing PMI: factory output fell at a quicker pace than in April decreases in new orders and new export business, but

A U.S. national security panel (CFIUS) has submitted its recommendation to Trump on Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel, though the content remains undisclosed. Reuters with the info. Trump’s April executive order required CFIUS to assess whether proposed company measures address previously identified national security risks. Trump now has 15 days to make

US natural gas prices are down about 2% today after a bearish inventory report. Stockpiles rose by 120 bcf compared to 115 bpc as we get ready for the summer power burn season. Natty is in an interesting spot at the moment and though prices have corrected since March, January futures remain just shy of

From Dombrovskis: G7 ministers put forth proposals on next package of EU sanctions on Russia oil price cap adjustments There was a suggestion to lower oil price cap to $50/barrel G7 did not go into in-depth discussion on Russian sanctions WTI crude is 71-cents lower today after an earlier report saying that OPEC will accelerate

FXIFY, the oldest broker-backed prop firm, is proud to celebrate its second anniversary, marking two years of industry-defining innovation, trader-first policies, and rapid global growth. Since its inception, FXIFY has paid out over $30 million to its traders and now serves a global community of more than 200,000 active users. In the first quarter of

Morgan Stanley sounding alarm on EV race, China may have already won & Tesla knows it. A US House vote on Trump’s tax cut bill is edging closer – House Rules Committee approves BOJ Noguchi says Bank should only ramp up bond purchases during “severe market disruption” US national security panel has submitted its recommendation

The USDCHF found solid support yesterday at a key swing area near 0.81931 to 0.82120, a zone that had previously acted as a launchpad during the early May rally. Buyers leaned against that level yesterday, halting the recent downside momentum and triggering a bounce. Today, the pair is moving modestly higher and is now testing

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 51.4 Manufacturing 52.3 vs 50.1 expected — best one-month jump since June 2022 Prior manufacturing was 50.7 Composite 52.1 vs 51.2 prior rise in inventories of purchases was the largest recorded in the 18-year survey history. This is a nice rebound into solidly positive territory, no doubt due to lower tariffs and a

The AUDUSD has been confined within a narrow 191-pip range between 0.63216 and 0.6513 over the last 28 trading days. That is a relatively tight range, indicative of a market that is unsure of the next shove. At the center of this range are the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, both of which are now

The US dollar found some modest bids after initial jobless claims edged lower. The reading of 227K was slightly below the 230K consensus and 229K last week. There has been no sign of weakening in the US jobs market in the weekly data and that’s likely to firm the Fed’s resolve to wait before cutting

The Euro’s importance as a global currency is set to increase. Frequent shifts in trade policy have fuelled economic uncertainty, undermining stability and resulting in tangible losses for all parties involved. It makes economic forecasts more complex and policy decision more challenging in an already uncertain environment. These policies certainly lead to volatility in the

Japan’s Mimura says Japan, US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers’ meeting reaffirmed that forex should be determined by the market Do not believe that there is any gap in understanding with the U.S. Finance Minister Kato agreed with Bessent that FX rates should be set by markets Did not discuss current rates

Prior was -14.7 This is a leading indicator. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

In the European session, the focus will be on the Flash PMIs where the market will want to see how business confidence changed since the new developments on the trade front and what’s the sentiment going forward. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs. The Jobless Claims

Crude oil futures settled at $61.57, down $0.46 or -0.74% on the day. The session high reached $64.14, while the low extended to $61.30, putting the market under modest downside pressure. At the session low, prices tested the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at $61.18—a key technical support level. Just below, additional

Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Asahi Noguchi says the central bank should only ramp up bond purchases during “severe market disruption”, signaling no immediate need to counter the recent spike in super-long bond yields. Noguchi believes no major changes are needed to the BOJ’s current bond tapering plan, which runs through March 2026, though

The Wall Street Journal with the report: Walmart plans to cut around 1,500 jobs in a restructuring aimed at trimming its expenses and speeding up decision-making. Walmart and other retailers have been cutting costs, putting pressure on suppliers, shifting production to other countries and increasing prices to offset the cost of tariffs. Last week, Walmart

The US House passes the Trump tax bill and sends it to the Senate This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 47.3 Manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 48.9 expected Prior 48.7 Composite PMI 48.0 vs 48.0 expected Prior 47.8 Key findings: HCOB Flash France Composite PMI Output Index at 2-month high. HCOB Flash France Services PMI Business Activity Index at 2-month high. HCOB Flash France Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 37-month high. HCOB Flash France Manufacturing

KCNA info converyed via Reuters: Accident occured during launch of North Korean warship Leader Kim Jong Un was overseeing launch ceremony when accident occured Kim says accident was unacceptable, a result of negligence and irresponsibility Ordered restoration of the vessel before the June party meeting North Korea says it will convene ruling party Central Committee

Australian exporters upbeat about resilience of China demand. On recent China trip, found confidence Beijing would do what was needed to sustain growth. Found striking confidence that China going into trade war with strong hand. China organizations expected large share of economic costs of tariffs would fall on US. China contacts expressed a determination not

The Head and Shoulders pattern is an important pattern that is frequently used in technical analysis and signals a potential trend change in the market. The head and shoulders pattern appears at the end of an uptrend. This pattern consists of three peaks that form in sequence. The first and third peaks are called the

Australian preliminary PMI from S&P Global for May 2025: Manufacturing 51.7 prior 51.7 Services 50.5 prior 51.0 Composite 50.6 prior 51.0 Two of three slip back a little but all three remain in expansion. If there has been a ‘tariff hit’ its not hefty. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is mixed, but little changed vs the 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the US session . Looking at the major pairs: EURUSD is down -0.16% (higher USD) USDJPY is also down by -0.26% (lower USD) GBPUSD is unchanged. The biggest mover is the NZDUSD which has taken a tumble in the European

Motion to recommit failed, now the House is voting on the tax bill. Follow live here This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Markets are watching fiscal policy and have concerns. Markets are looking for more fiscal discipline. Fed won’t buy bonds in primary auctions. Hard data shows economy doing quite well, scant sign of tariff impact so far. If tariffs are closer to 10%, then economy is good shape for 2H. If tariffs settle down, Fed could

Japan Eco Minister: No change to Japan’s stance of demanding elimination of US tariffs The US House passes the Trump tax bill and sends it to the Senate ECB’s Holzmann: The Euro’s importance as a global currency is set to increase ECB’s Vujcic: Eurozone growth positive but low RBA’s Hauser: Australian exporters upbeat about resilience

Recent rise in long-term rates likely won’t have an impact on our new bond taper plan to be decided in June. Most important thing is that things are different now than during period when we had YCC. We don’t look at the size of our JGB buying from standpoint of monetary policy. In tapering bond

Trump Giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. Will be making a decision in near future *** Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) are U.S. government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that play a central role in the housing finance system. They don’t lend money

Bitcoin Price Forecast In short, I am watching $117k – $119k on the Bitcoin futures. Now I apologize for the next video not having audio due to a technical issue being looked into, but I am sure most of you with a will, will find a way, and see why. Now you will note in

Eurozone growth positive but low. I expect to get close to 2% target at the end of 2025. I expect to reach the target in early 2026. Same old stuff from the ECB as they keep their conviction on hitting the target soon and therefore continue with rate cuts. This article was written by Giuseppe

Morgan Stanley note says rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may not begin until September 2025 with more to follow in 2026 Morgan Stanley forecast 10 year yield dropping to 3.45% … by the middle of 2026! Bit more to add, I’ll post separately. FOMC data for this year. This article was

Prior 49.0 Manufacturing PMI 45.1 vs 46.0 expected Prior 45.4 Composite PMI 49.4 vs 49.3 expected Prior 48.5 These are mostly in line figures and nothing to be afraid or cheer about. The agency notes that confidence rebounded and price pressures have moderated after spiking higher. The sentiment about prospects in the year ahead remains

Prior 50.1 Manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs 49.3 expected Prior 49.0 Composite PMI 49.5 vs 50.7 expected Prior 50.4 Key findings: HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index at 6-month low. HCOB Flash Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index at 16-month low. HCOB Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index at Unchanged pace of growth. HCOB Flash

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser has tended to pop up after meetings to give a little more guidance. I am not sure we’ll get much today given his topic: “Open the Door and See the Mountain: Reflections from a Recent Trip to China “ Perhaps in any following Q&A? His speech is scheduled

Reuters Japan Corporate Survey: Two-thirds of Japanese firms want BOJ to pause rate hikes due to Trump’s tariffs More than 80% of Japan firms intend to proceed with wage hikes despite tariff impact More than 60% of Japanese firms expect negative earnings impact from new US tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Gold prices are poised to rise to $3,750 per ounce by the fourth quarter, driven by rising safe-haven demand and a weakening U.S. dollar, according to a new report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). In a note from Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at CBA, the bank highlighted geopolitical tensions—particularly

US Treasury confirm that Sec. Bessent met with Japan finance minister Kato Secretary Bessent met with finance minister Katsunobu Kato of Japan on the margins of the G7 finance ministers Bessent and Kato discussed global security, bilateral trade and currency issues Bessent and Kato reaffirmed shared belief that exchange rates should be market determined Bessent

The latest numbers on American inflation have left the global financial community wondering. How many times will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this year? With inflation at a four-year low, markets are tracking every hint and putting their probabilities together with rising confidence. The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure, released on May

Prior 86.9 Current assessment 86.1 vs. 86.8 expected Prior 86.4 Expectations 88.9 vs. 88.0 expected Prior 87.4 It’s getting tentatively better as we go forward. As seen in the German PMI report, fiscal boost and ECB rate cuts are helping the economy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 48.4 Services PMI 47.2 vs 49.5 expected Prior 49.0 Composite PMI 48.6 vs 50.4 expected Prior 50.1 Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 5-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 30-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 3-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing

Prior 99 (revised to 100) This is not a market moving indicator but it’s a bit of a disappointment. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Award-winning online trading platform IronFX is known for its long list of headlining sports sponsorships, from freediving championships in Korea to world-famous football clubs. Rising to the challenge is clearly a hallmark of this forex trading broker’s ethos. To this end, it also helps vulnerable groups in communities to make their lives better through charitable

sCommerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: “There will be no floor below 10%. 10 is our baseline. No one’s going below 10.” Lutnick also said Trump’s ‘gold card’ will launch within 7 days. Mini me tariff man was speaking at an Axios event This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ethereum Futures Analysis Today – TradeCompass Methodology in Action Hello traders and crypto investors, Today we bring you a fresh Ethereum futures analysis using the TradeCompass methodology—a professional-grade approach that incorporates volume profile, VWAPs, liquidity zones, and key historical levels to help you make more informed decisions. Ethereum (ETH) remains the second-largest crypto asset by

OPEC+ discusses another 411K B/D output hike in July. Crude oil is down on the headline as higher supply expectations continue to keep a lid on further gains. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

March 2025 machine orders data from Japan sky rocket higher. +13.4% m/m expected -1.6%, prior 4.3% +8.4% y/y expected -2.2%, prior 1.5% Core orders jump signals strong capex outlook This is countering recession fears, boosting economic recovery hopes. — These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months.

U.S. House Rules Committee approves Trump’s tax-cut bill Sets stage for full House floor vote on the bill House Speaker Johnson and Trump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand has revised its fiscal outlook, projecting a smaller budget deficit and adjusting bond issuance plans as it navigates a still-challenging economic environment. On Thursday, the government forecast a budget deficit of NZ$14.74 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, a notable improvement from the NZ$17.32 billion shortfall projected in its December

Last year, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, X (formerly Twitter), Spotify, Match Group, and Epic Games, developer of Fortnite, objected to Apple’s plan to charge fees for payments made outside the App Store. Then, in February this year, Beijing suddenly became interested in Apple’s App Store policies. After losing a legal battle against Epic Games, Apple is

Inflation pressures bubbling away. CNBC report that Nike is raising prices as soon as this week: on a wide range of products both on apparel and equipment CNBC cite an unnamed source: prices for Nike apparel and equipment for adults will increase between $2 and $10 footwear priced between $100 and $150 will see a

Morgan Stanley is sounding the alarm on the rapidly intensifying electric vehicle (EV) race, suggesting China may have already clinched victory in the hardware battle—and Tesla knows it. In a recent note, the investment bank argues that the launch of Xiaomi’s new SU7—which it describes as an “electric Ferrari at a Volkswagen price”—is a watershed

EUR/USD 1.1400 (EUR 751mn) 1.1315 (EUR 1.00bn) 1.1300 (EUR 624mn) 1.1175 (EUR 2.13bn) USD/JPY 143.50 (US$ 601mn) GBP/USD 1.3500 (GBP 347mn) 1.3395 (GBP 456mn) 1.3260 (GBP 778mn) USD/CHF 0.8525 (CHF 598mn) USD/CAD 1.4050 (US$ 1.41bn) 1.3700 (US$ 659mn) AUD/USD 0.6700 (AUD 286mn) 0.6100 (AUD 204mn) For more information on how to use this data, you

Singapore Q1 GDP +3.9% y/y vs Reuters poll +3.6% expected 3.6%, prior 3.8% Singapore Q1 GDP -0.6% q/q at seasonally adjusted rate expected -1.0%, prior -0.8% Singapore MTI maintains 2025 GDP growth forecast at 0.0% to +2.0% Singapore MTI says despite recent positive developments, global economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, with risks tilted to

Bank of Japan board member Noguchi: Japan’s economy is growing steadily Japan’s economy is currently shifting to a new phase where sustainable inflation is realized accompanied by wage increases Downside risks to Japan economy stemming from overseas economies have rapidly heightened due to U.S. tariff policies BOJ likely to keep adjusting policy rate while carefully

Japan finance minister Kato: Told G7 meeting that US tariffs are creating uncertainties Discussed overcapacity with G7 Told G7 unsustainable macro-economic imbalance of some countries behind trade imbalance Told G7 each country must take steps to boost domestic demand, cut fiscal deficit Talk with Bessent lasted 30 minutes Met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent today

House Majority Leader Scalise: House will vote on tax bill today House Speaker Johnson: They are trying to meet their deadline to vote on the tax bill. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China and 10 ASEAN countries have concluded negotiations on CAFTA Version 3.0, a major upgrade of their free trade agreement. The deal introduces nine new chapters focused on areas like the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity, aiming to deepen regional integration and economic cooperation. Officials say CAFTA 3.0 will enhance trade stability,

An official of the Monetary Authority of Singapore says current policy stance remains appropriate Meanwhile … Singapore trade ministry official says sees possibility of technical recession but not necessarily a full-blown recession. — Earlier data from Singapore: Singapore Q1 GDP -0.6% q/q (expected -1.0%, prior -0.8%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

WSJ (gated) reports that Trump told EU heads in private Putin isn’t ready to end war. On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning, according to three people familiar with the conversation. Key points in the Journal

As markets react to yields rising. The 10 year is up 10.03 basis points while the thirty-year is up 11.4 basis points. The US stocks are moving lower. The Dow industrial average is now down over 2% (at -2.02%). The S&P is down -1.74% and the NASDAQ is down -1.68%. Looking at the NASDAQ index,

more to come European Central Bank Governing Council member and head of Germany’s Bundesbank Joachim Nagel said there has been progress in resolving the U.S.-EU tariff dispute, but more hurdles remain. Speaking from the G7 meeting in Banff, Canada, Nagel noted a better mutual understanding is developing between the U.S. and Europe. He stressed that

The USDJPY extended its move lower today, breaking decisively below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (currently near 144.86) and staying below that level through the U.S. session. The move marked a key shift in near-term momentum as sellers tightened their grip. The decline accelerated after the pair failed to sustain above the

Via Standard Chartered on gold: Gold remains well supported above its 50-day moving average We expect it to test resistance at US$3,500 3 month forecast is US$3400 12 month forecast is US$3500 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US House Speaker Johnson says the bill is ‘moving forward’ says yet to decide on vote on Trump tax bill, today or tomorrow Timing for votes like this are VERY fluid. If Johnson thinks he has the numbers he’ll call the vote with, perhaps, minimal heads up. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The major US stock indices a closing lower on the day. The Dow industrial average was the worst performer with a decline of -1.91%. The top 10 decliners for the day: UnitedHealth Group (UNH): −5.78% Nike (NKE): −4.12% American Express (AXP): −3.43% IBM (IBM): −2.28% Apple (AAPL): −2.31% Visa (V): −2.33% Salesforce (CRM): −2.01% Goldman

Major US stock indices close today lower as yields rise US House Majority Leader Scalise. House will vote on tax bill today Crude oil futures settle at $61.57 ECB Escriva: EUR recent appreciation was a surprise Is Apple in serious trouble? US Treasury auctions off $16B of 20-year bonds at a high yield of 5.047%

ECB Excriva says: Euro’s recent appreciation was a surprise. More difficult to predict how tariffs impact inflation A stronger currency tends to lower inflation. This happens because imported goods and services become cheaper in local currency terms, which reduces input costs for businesses and lowers prices for consumers. At the same time, the cost of

The GBPUSD moved higher to a new high going back to 2022 after hotter than expected CPI data, but has reversed lower. The pair is back below the 2024 hgh at 1.3433, and the 2025 high from April at 1.3441 after spiking to 1.34695. Staying below those levels will keep the sellers in play. Move

The USDCAD remains under pressure, continuing its slide that began last week after the pair tested and failed at the 200-day moving average on two occasions (higher green line currently at 1.4016). The price traded above and below the 100 and 200 hour MAs over the last two trading days, with the 100 hour MA

The price of bitcoin has moved to a new record high today, rising to an intraday high of $109,732. The current price is at $109,515, up $2700 or 2.55%. The move to new highs surpassed the January 10 high of $109,356. Since the corrective low on May 12th at $100,764, the price has risen 9%.

Reuters Tankan more to come Japan manufacturers index +8 in May vs +9 in April Japan non-manufacturers index +30 in May, unchanged from April Japan manufacturers index seen at +7 in August, non-manufacturers at +28 Tariff uncertainty under Trump’s trade policy is dampening business optimism, particularly in manufacturing. Rising costs, delayed capital spending, and concerns

U.S. equities have reversed sharply into negative territory amid a surge in Treasury yields, following a disappointing 20-year bond auction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 684 points (-1.61%). The S&P 500 has dropped 63 points (-1.07%). The NASDAQ Composite is lower by 139 points (-0.73%). 🔻 Leading laggards for the hard hit Dow:

Germany’s finance minister Klingbeil met with US Treasury Secretary Bessent for a bilateral conversation. The finance ministers of the G7 are meeting in Canada this week. Both leaders agreed to meet again in Washington with Bessent inviting Klingbeil for the meeting. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

High yield: 5.047% WI level at the time of the auction 5.035% Tail 1.2 basis points versus six-month average of -0.4 basis points Bid to cover 2.46X vs six-month average of 2.57X Direct (domestic buyers) 14.1% versus six-month average of 17.1% Inirects (international buyers) 70.7% versus six-month average of 67.2% Dealers 16.9% versus six-month average

The USDCHF has rotated lower today, continuing the decline over the last 6 or so trading days.. The price has returned to a familiar swing area between 0.8193 and 0.8212, which has previously acted as the low of an up-and-down trading range (see Red Box). The pair found buyers on the initial test, with price

The US treasury will auction off $16 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the major components shows: Bid-to-cover 2.57X Tail 0.4 basis points Dealers 15.7% Directs (domestic buyers) 17.1% Indirects (nternational buyers) 67.2% The last auction went off at a high yield of 4.81%. The current

Australian Westpac Leading Index for April 2025 headline is unchanged m/m. But taken to two decimals its -0.01% m/m. WPAC on the data: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2%

The major European indices are closing the day mixed/little changed, erasing earlier declines at the start of the US session. The snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.34% France’s CAC, -0.36% UK FTSE 100, +0.06% Spain’s Ibex, -0.11% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.07% The German DAX closed at a new record level. The DAX’s

Nasdaq Futures Analysis Now – Early Signs of a Possible Bullish Reversal, Using AI and Deep Order Flow Analysis orderFlow Intel Trader Update Prediction Score: +4 (Bullish Bias Confirmed, Increasing Confidence) Recently, price action has consolidated firmly near the psychologically significant level of 21,300. Round numbers like this typically attract substantial liquidity, as market makers

Elevate your trading strategy with precise insights and reliable analysis. Economies.com’s VIP Subscription stands as a beacon for serious traders seeking a competitive edge. Embrace the power of accurate forecasts and expert guidance to navigate volatile markets with confidence. In the dynamic world of forex trading, having access to timely and reliable information is crucial.

US House Speaker Johnson said that they reached an agreement on the $40,000 SALT deduction cap. Hardline conservatives have been resistant to a significant hike to the deduction cap. This should be a big step forward in passing the party’s “big, beautiful bill.” A congressional correspondent with CNN posted on X that the House Speaker

The USDCAD has extended its decline, breaking below a series of key support levels and reinforcing the bearish momentum that has gripped the pair since last week. After failing twice last week at the 200-day moving average near 1.4016 (higher green line), sellers took control, and the break below the 100- and 200-hour MAs with

Pres. Trump is saying he is feeling goog on the bill in Congress. Stocks are reacting positively with the Nasdaq up 0.48% at 19233. The high just reached 19240.53. The S&P is still marginally lower by 9 points or -0.15% at 5931.50 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Says he hears from an increasing number of businesses who say they can no longer delay responding through changes via prices or employment Fed needs to be more certain about the outlook to be comfortable with how policy should shift US economy is going to see a slowdown in activity but how it plays out

The NASDAQ index has moved into positive territory. It currently trades up 49 points or less 0.27% at 19194.50. That erased a decline of -142.20 at session lows. With the week nearly half over, the index is near unchanged at -0.09% 📈 Top Gainers in the Nasdaq-100 Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Gain: +5.14% Closing Price: $172.41

Earlier from China: China’s Commerce Ministry says US measures on China chips are bullying, protectionist The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the

Prepare to be astonished. Google DeepMind just unveiled Veo 3, a video generation model that is, quite literally, mind-blowing. We’ve never seen anything like it. Veo can generate high-definition, 8-second videos complete with incredibly realistic and perfectly synchronized audio. Forget heavily curated demos – here Dr. Furkan Gözükara, a PhD Computer Engineer, gathered 60 un-cherry-picked

House Speaker Johnson and House Freedom Caucus Harris will go meet US Pres. Trump this afternoon at 3 PM ET. Harris earlier today said that they are encouraged by the progress in the last 24 hours, but does not think it can be done today or even this week. He said he is confident he

Analyzing forex market trends is critical for traders aiming to capitalize on currency movements. Accurate data analysis and the use of advanced trading tools empower traders to make informed decisions. Understanding key data sources and trading signals enhances trend analysis, providing a competitive edge in the forex market. In the dynamic world of forex trading,

New Zealand trade data for April 2025 Exports $NZD 7.84bn prior 7.41bn Imports 6.42bn prior 6.61bn Trade Balance $NZD 1,426mn expected 670mn, prior 794mn The annual trade balance remains a deficit at -4.81bn NZD This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Second flagship fund closed above the original hard cap with strong support from existing investors and new investors comprising more than two-thirds of capital ● 83% of completed investments have been sourced with in-house developed AI platform, DIANE ● Invictus empowers previously bootstrapped cloud software, cybersecurity, and fintech companies with dedicated operating and data science

Prior was 0.0% The cracks in the Canadian housing market are growing and help isn’t coming. The latest CPI number drastically cut the odds of a BOC rate cut in June (odds now just 31%) and Canadian yields are following the global trend higher. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Stock Market Guides, a company that offers stock market scanning software, has announced the latest improvement to its proprietary stock scanner technology. Their stock scanner not only finds trade setups in real time that are popular among active traders, but it also now shows how each of those trade setups performed historically according to backtest

The market pricing now sees 34 bps of easing in 2025 compared to 41 bps before the UK CPI release. The next cut is fully priced in for November. This is still a bit high in my opinion and I would expect some more hawkish repricing in the next weeks and months for the BoE

The AUDUSD has experienced a choppy four-day stretch, marked by key technical tests on both ends of the range. After dipping to a low of 0.6391 yesterday—just above the prior support zone near 0.6388 (Thursday/Friday’s lows)—buyers stepped in and defended the level, forming a near-term base. That bounce highlights the 0.6388–0.6391 area as key support,

Sector Overview The US stock market experienced a nuanced day with mixed performances across various sectors. While the technology sector seems to be losing its previous momentum, evidenced by Microsoft (MSFT) declining by 0.44% and Oracle (ORCL) dropping by 0.62%, there is burgeoning resilience in other areas. Consumer cyclical sectors, notably Amazon (AMZN), saw a

Prior crude was +3454K Gasoline +816K vs -524K exp Distillates +579K vs-1398K exp Private data released late yesterday: Crude +2499K Gasoline -3238K Distillates -443K WTI crude oil was trading up 14-cents to $62.17 earlier. It had been up to $64.19 earlier on a report that Israel was considering attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. This data is

The ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds. Interest rate cuts are nearing an end assuming inflation stabilises at 2% over the coming months. It’s important to analise alternative scenarios amid the trade uncertainty. If either inflationary or deflationary risk scenario materialises, monetary policy will react accordingly. The market sees the terminal rate

It’s been a bloodbath in the Japanese super-long bond market recently as yields continue to surge to record highs. Yesterday, the BoJ released briefing material used at its meeting with bond market participants and although there were different opinions, lower liquidity and demand for super-long bonds have been cited. Some market participants urged the BoJ

Different asset classes respond in different ways to various fundamental developments. You can have bonds selling-off because the central bank is tightening monetary policy or you can have an FX pair in an uptrend because the central bank of the currency that is appreciating is raising interest rates, while the central bank of the currency

The GBPUSD surged to its highest level since 2022 earlier today, driven by stronger-than-expected UK CPI data that reinforced hawkish rate expectations. The rally took the pair above both the 2024 high at 1.3433 (not shown) and the 2025 high at 1.34419, with the advance stalling at 1.34695. After peaking, the pair pulled back and

HSBC expects most G10 currency pairs to consolidate in the near term, as global trade uncertainty continues to recede and cyclical dynamics begin to reassert themselves. In a research note, the bank said further progress in trade negotiations could be supportive for the US dollar, even as structural concerns around the greenback persist. “The USD

What is happening with the US consumer? Last week, the market breathed a sigh of relief after Walmart maintained its annual sales forecast. The CFO said February was softer than expected, March was back to normal and April was very strong. But could the signal have been that higher-end consumers who usually shop at Target

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched its new Business Expectations Survey (BES) today with results for the June quarter 2025. BES is a quarterly release will be published ahead of each Monetary Policy Statement Says the Bank explainer:BES includes several hundred businesses from different sectors around the country, from small to large firms It

It’s going to be a boring day on the data front as we just have the UK CPI report on the agenda. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs. 3.4% prior, while the Services CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.8% vs. 4.7% prior. Just by looking at these numbers I really can’t understand

There are plenty of things going on in the economy, trade and politics at the moment that are worth watching closely but I believe the confluence of them all — and the single most important metric to watch — is the yield on long bonds. This year we’ve seen three tests of 5% and they

China commerce ministry: US measures on China’s advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism’ US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain US abuses export controls to contain and suppress China, violates international law and basic norms Suspects US measures constitute discriminatory restrictive measures against

US House Speaker Johnson: We came to $40,000 SALT deduction cap agreement ECB’s de Guindos: 2% price goal to be reached sooner than later US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 16 May -5.1% vs +1.1% prior ECB’s Kazaks: The ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds ECB’s de Guindos: Equity valuations are high, credit

RBNZ inflation expectations survey: 1 yr CPI seen at 2.44% (prior 2.25) 2 yr 2.54% (2.47) Morgan Stanley raises China GDP forecast to 4.5% for 2025 amid easing trade tensions USD weakness extends G7 weighs joint tariffs on low-value Chinese imports amid overcapacity concerns ICYMI – China gold imports surge to 11-month high ICYMI –

Prior +1.1% Market index 238.5 vs 251.2 prior Purchase index 157.8 vs 166.5 prior Refinance index 682.5 vs 718.1 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.92% vs 6.86% prior This is never a market moving release. Of course, as long term interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall. The mortgage market index and the US30Y yield are inversely

Interest rate to prevent inflation from falling under 2% may have to come below the neutral rate between 1.50-2.00% The market is pricing 1.64% as the low for ECB rates which is a bit more than 50 bps fully priced in. Getting helow his neutral range would mean at least one more cut on top

Japan trade data, April 2025 Trade Balance Total -115.8bn JPY expected +227.1bn, prior +559.4bn Imports -2.2% y/y expected -4.5%, prior +1.8% Exports +2.0% y/y expected +2.0%, prior + 4.0% All of the following are y/y for April: Exports to Asia +6% Exports to China -0.6% Exports to EU -5.2% Exports to U.S. -1.8% This article

A low key session ahead for data, but we have four Federal Reserve speakers lined up. 2100 GMT /1700 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives commencement address before the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony 2300 GMT /1900 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Eurostoxx -0.2% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.3% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.0% We’ve seen some downside in stock indices triggered by the hot UK inflation data. European indices have been on an incredible rally since Trump’s tariffs pause on April 9 but inflation concerns could trigger a correction as the market would

2% price goal to be reached sooner than later. We can’t be complacent on fiscal risks for markets. Energy costs and the Euro to push inflation down. Some one-offs boosted Q1 GDP in Eurozone. New projections to go in ‘same direction’ as EU’s. Many risks we’ve flagged have become reality. I don’t have the same

Prior +2.6% Core CPI +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.4% Services CPI +5.4% vs +4.8% y/y expected Prior +4.7% Big upside surprise for UK inflation. The market will certainly reprice the rate cut expectations to something like 25-28 bps of easing by year-end (one rate cut) and even then I’m skeptical the BoE will

EUR/USD 1.1400 (EUR 1.09bn) 1.1390 (EUR 1.83bn) 1.1305 (EUR 1.23bn) 1.1270 (EUR 1.11bn) 1.1250 (EUR 2.02 bn) USD/JPY 144.50 (US$ 940mn) 142.00 (US$ 878mn) GBP/USD 1.3500 (GBP 432mn) 1.3420 (GBP 387mn) 1.3400 (GBP 537mn) 1.3265 (GBP 459mn) USD/CHF 0.8300 (CHF 545mn) 0.8250 (CHF 1.10bn) 0.8200 (CHF 425mn) 0.8100 (CHF 430mn) USD/CAD 1.4270 (US$ 1.12bn) AUD/USD

Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives commencement address before the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony Old pic. – Earlier: Fed’s Bostic: More businesses say they can no longer delay tariff price hikes or job cuts Fed’s Musalem: Hearing that businesses and households are holding back from decisions Fed’s Musalem: Monetary policy currently is

In prop trading, factors like developing a strong psychology and mindset are as important in reaching financial goals as a successful strategy. Award-winning firm Ultimate Traders recognises this and prioritises this within its growing community by providing the education, tools, and technology for each challenge participant to trade at their own pace. This is not

Report is here: CNN is reporting that Israel is planning an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities In the report CNN cites unnamed US officials saying Israel planning an attack on Itanian nuclear facilities This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CNN is reporting that Israel is planning an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities Final decision so far unclear CNN cite unnamed US officials — The yen is getting a wee bid on this news (flight to haven). CHF also. — Here we go, CNN: The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making

Equity valuations are high, credit spreads out of sync with risk. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley has raised its China GDP growth forecast to 4.5% for 2025 (from 4.2%) and 4.2% for 2026 (from 4.0%), Morgan Stanley citing reduced tariff headwinds and an easing in global trade tensions. The analysts assume additional US tariffs will be capped at 30%, allowing Beijing to adopt more measured and delayed stimulus. Q4

In June, EC Markets will undertake initiatives that mark new, decisive steps in its worldwide expansion and consolidation within the financial sector. The company will play a leading role at the now established iFX Expo International 2025, which will be held from 17 to 19 June at the City of Dreams Mediterranean Resort in Limassol.

CNBC reporting on remarks from Musk on Tuesday: said AI data centres could face power capacity issues the middle to end of next year. said his artificial intelligence startup xAI is building a gigawatt-size data center outside Memphis, Tenn (a gigawatt is equivalent to the power capacity of the average nuclear plant in the U.S.)

Canada April CPI +1.7% y/y vs +1.6% expected Eurozone May flash consumer confidence -15.2 vs -16.0 expected Fed’s Musalem: Hearing that businesses and households are holding back from decisions Fed’s Bostic: More busiinesses say they can no longer delay tariff price hikes or job cuts Fed’s Musalem: Monetary policy currently is well positioned Kazakhstan has

Commonwealth Bank of Australia has brought forward its rate cut expectations, now pencilling in reductions in both August and September, as moderating inflation and softening wage growth increase the likelihood of earlier monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. “We continue to expect two further rate cuts this year, but now favour August and

The usual array of suspects is being cited: Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over rising federal debt and persistent fiscal deficits. It may yet have further US bond market implications. Trump’s proposed tax bill. The bill is projected to increase the national debt by $3 to $5

Group of Seven (G7) nations are in discussions over coordinated tariff measures targeting low-value Chinese imports, as Western economies grow increasingly wary of what they describe as Beijing’s non-market practices and industrial overcapacity. Canada’s Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne confirmed that talks are underway among G7 members to address the surge in inexpensive Chinese goods, which

The airport has been beset by issues that haverve raised safety concerns. From the US Federal Aviation Administration statement: ** The FAA issued an interim order reducing the flight arrival and departure rate at Newark Liberty International Airport.Under the interim order issued Tuesday, the maximum hourly rate will be: 28 arrivals and 28 departures until

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard: cars assembled in Mexico and exported to the United States will face an average tariff of 15%, not 25% citing additional discounts that local products benefit from Reuters with the info. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

News out of Hong Kong ICYMI. Hong Kong pension fund managers have warned of potential forced selling of US Treasuries after Moody’s downgraded US debt, leaving only one remaining AAA rating from Japan’s R&I agency. Under Hong Kong’s Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) rules, funds can only allocate more than 10% to Treasuries if the US

Via Politico: House Speaker Mike Johnson and a group of blue-state Republicans have reached a critical but tentative deal to boost the cap on state and local tax deductions to $40,000 in the GOP megabill, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge of the private agreement. However, GOP hard-liners and fiscal hawks who deeply oppose

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack: Sentiment data about the economy concerning If the Fed faces challenges on inflation and unemployment it will be a difficult choice Will take more time to see how business decisions are influenced by trade policy Right now the best action for the Fed is to sit on

Bloomberg had this on Tuesday, citing Chinese customs data. I saw April gold imports data earlier this month, but this is more detailed. In summary: China imported the most gold in nearly a year last month, as strong investor demand and central bank policy shifts pushed bullion inflows sharply higher despite record prices. According to

Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Trump on Tuesday at the White House. Earlier this week Trump said he told Cook not to expand Apple’s manufacturing footprint in India. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.3mn barrels Distillates -1.4mn bbls Gasoline -0.5 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two

JP Morgan’s FX strategy team expects the US dollar to face mild downward pressure in the near term, driven by portfolio rebalancing and increased currency hedging—particularly from countries with large exposure to US equities. In a research note, the bank identified Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, the UK, Australia, and Israel as having the largest US

The EURUSD has made a technical push higher in today’s session, breaking above both the key swing area between 1.12657 and 1.12754, and the 38.2% retracement of the April–May decline at 1.12754. That dual-level break gives buyers added control in the short term and confirms momentum shifting back in favor of the bulls. Yesterday’s high

We are in the midst of one of the all-time great divergences in markets right now. On the one hand, you have the BofA fund manager survey (and many other data points) showing that fund managers have been lightening up on the US and are as close to as bearish as they’ve been. On the

The price of June crude oil futures are settling down -$0.13 or -0.21% at $62.56. The high price reached $63.17. The low price was at $62.19. Looking at the hourly chart, the price on Monday moved back above its 100-hour moving average (the blue line on the chart above), and for most of the trading

The USD is little changed vs the EUR (-0.05%), JPY (-0.17%), and GBP (-0.06%) to start the US trading session. The USD is also marginally lower vs the CHF and the CAD. The biggest move in the US morning snapshot is versus the AUD with the dollar higher vs that currency aftet the RBA cut

If decisions have been somewhat paused I’d expect it to affect the economic outlook The impact of uncertainty on economic activity tends to be pretty meaningful Sides are getting dug in on what the tariff uncertainty really means. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches Expects to reach an interim agreement before July Info comes via Bloomberg No further details as yet This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank’s latest “FX Blueprint” frames the summer narrative around two central calls: a structural turn lower in the US dollar and the re-emergence of the Japanese yen as the counter-punch. The note has 11 themes, including buying gold and EUR/CAD but I’ll highlight the main message. The top theme is titled “Breaking Benjamin” and

BofA highlights that corporate hedging behavior in G10 FX, particularly in EUR/USD, may shift meaningfully if the euro continues to strengthen. Corporates appear underhedged against EUR exposure, and further euro gains could prompt catch-up hedging, influencing spot markets. Key Points: Corporate flows dominate BofA’s proprietary FX flow data, but have been relatively light and directionless

A 25bp cash rate cut is almost unanimously expected. The latest set of forecasts I have seen have all analysts look for 25bp but two, who are looking for a 50bp rate cut. I’m on the 25bp, 50 seems a little extreme for a usually very timid RBA. Earlier: 75bp of Reserve Bank of Australia

We should not be dependent on how data turns out. We can’t assume that inflation pain of new economic shocks will go away. I agree with the MPC view that there is an easing in the labour market, question is about the pace. Some key pay indicators remain quite strong. I think he’s suggesting that

St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem (2025 voter) is speaking and says: Monetary policy is currently well-positioned Balanced response to higher inflation, unemployment feasible if inflation expectations stay anchored. If inflation expectations become unanchor, Fed policy should prioritize price stability. US economy has underlying strength, labor market stable, inflation east but above 2% goal. Economic policy

The NZDUSD is currently caught in a technical stranglehold, with price action confined between a dense cluster of key moving averages across multiple timeframes. On the topside, rallies have repeatedly stalled near the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.59273, a level that has served as firm resistance over the past two days.

The GBPUSD has reestablished a short-term bullish bias after a failed downside break last week. During that break, sellers had their shot as price moved below both the consolidation red box floor (see chart above), and then the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (at 1.31603), but that break quickly reversed. The inability to sustain the move lower

Prior month 2.3% CPI m/m -0.1% versus -0.2% expected. Prior month +0.3% Core CPI m/m +0.5% versus +0.1% last month Core CPI y/y +2.5% versus 2.2% last month CPI Median y/y 3.2% versus 2.9% estimate. Last month 2.9% CPI Trim 3.1% versus 2.9% expected Last month 2.8% CPI Common 2.5% versus 2.3% last month The

The big surprise today wasn’t that the RBA cut rates but that they discussed going with a 50 basis point move. That has the market nearly fully priced for cuts at the next three meetings. In turn, the Australian dollar slumped and is the G10 laggard today. Despite that, the market has been taking a

Sector Overview The technology sector today paints a varied picture. Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) are down 0.71% and 0.67% respectively, reflecting some bearish sentiments. Particularly hit is the semiconductor space, with Nvidia (NVDA) facing a decline of 2.02%, signalling caution from investors about tech valuations. In contrast, the consumer cyclical sector shows some resilience,

I don’t think nuclear talks with the US will be successful. US demand that Iran stops enrichment is outrageous. The US should avoid talking nonsense in talks. This headline gave crude oil prices a boost as the markets continue to bounce around amid the US-Iran nuclear deal. A positive resolution is seen as bearish (at

The US dollar is on the front foot in early New York trade. The pound is at a session low against the dollar, down 14 pips to 1.3343 after rising as high as 1.3394 at the start of European trade. AUD and NZD are also sliding after the RBA cut rates earlier and indicated there

When I analyze a chart, I look for technical levels that “do their job”—levels where the market consistently reacts. On the 10-year yield chart above, the 200-hour moving average has done just that. Over the past three tests, the yield has found reliable support at the 200-hour MA, with each bounce occurring at progressively higher

Fed: 54 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 52 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 45 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 47 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 73 bps (56% probability of rate

Closing changes on the day: German DAX, +0.3% France’s CAC +0.8% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.9% Spain’s IBEX +1.2% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.8% Spanish stocks are up 23% from the Liberation Day low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that growing U.S. financial volatility could spark a sudden scramble for dollars, particularly from non-bank investors holding vast off-balance-sheet FX swap positions. BIS official Hyun-Song Shin said more than $80 trillion in FX swaps—essentially short-term dollar debt—are held by funds and institutions outside the banking system. These

The USDCAD continues to trade in a narrow consolidation range, with price action toggling above and below the 100-hour (1.39607) and 200-hour (1.39501) moving averages — a sign of short-term indecision. In early North American trading, the pair briefly tested the 100-hour MA but failed to sustain gains, attracting sellers and keeping the near-term bias

There was so much noise over the weekend and yesterday about the Moody’s downgrade with even some doomsday scenarios. I’ve argued (here) that it was no big deal and just a symbolic thing. If you look at the US30Y chart now, the market erased the entire rise and we are basically back to where we

The implied odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on June 4 have plunged to 36% from 65% following today’s CPI report. The main problem was that core measures rose 0.2-0.3 pp more than anticipated. “Diverging signals within today’s inflation data produces a real dilemma for the Bank of Canada,” writes CIBC following the

Mid-term inflation outlook too uncertain to say whether we need a June cut. ECB projections likely to show lower inflation this year and the next, but longer term is uncertain. I personally think the ECB shouldn’t cut in June and pause now to see how things evolve. There’s a scenario where they might have already

The PBoC reiterates implementation of loose monetary policy What are the current interest rates expectations for the major central banks? ECB’s Knot: Mid-term inflation outlook too uncertain to say whether we need a June cut More from BoE’s Pill: We should not be dependent on how data turns out Japan mulls accepting US tariff reduction,

South Korea end-March household credit marks fastest growth Y/Y since end-June 2022 Bank of Korea with the data. End-March household credit: +0.1% q/q vs +0.6% at end-Dec 2024 +2.5% y/y vs +2.1% at end-Dec 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No one cares about the deficit. Today, Trump is on Capitol Hill speaking with Republicans and trying to push forward his budget bill. Yet he singled out one single Republican holdout: Thomas Massie and called for him to be voted out of office. Massie’s sin? He wants to see real deficit reduction. Several other reports

The yen is on the slide. Apart from what has been posted there is no fresh news. I’m trying to have a dig around, it’s a sharp move: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Vote against interest rate cut was a ‘skip’ within a continuing withdrawal of monetary policy restriction. Inflation pressure indicators give me cause for concern. Quarterly pace of 25 bps cuts seen since last summer is too rapid given the inflation outlook. My dissenting vote was favouring a ‘skip’ in the quarterly pattern of bank rate

UBS is advising investors to maintain a full strategic allocation to U.S. equities, even after the recent market rally and Friday’s U.S. credit rating downgrade by Moody’s to Aa1. In a note published Monday, the bank clarified that its recent downgrade of U.S. equities from “Attractive” to “Neutral” reflects short-term valuation concerns, not a bearish

The Teranet April Canadian house price index fell 1.5% in April in the fourth consecutive monthly decline, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. In year-over-year terms, prices eked out a 0.2% gain nationally after a 2.3% increase the month before. There is strength in Quebec while the Toronto area is struggling with the city down 3.5% y/y.

The EURUSD continues to trade within a well-defined range, with price action capped once again at the resistance zone between 1.1265 and 1.1275—a level that has repeatedly stalled upside attempts. Buyers briefly pushed through this zone yesterday, reaching a high at 1.1280, but failed to hold above, and the pair has since rotated lower. Despite

The RBA cut rate earlier today and the market is sensing that the Bank of Canada will continue to do the same. Their next meeting is June 4 and market pricing is now at 65% for a cut. A big swing in that could come at the bottom of the hour with Canadian inflation data

Some members said JGB market functionality improving as a trend due to BoJ’s taper. Other participants said there is distortion between super-long yields and yields for other maturities due to dwindling liquidity in super-long JGB market. Some market participants called for faster pace of BoJ taper from fiscal 2026 though others called for maintaining or

Prior was -16.6 This is a decent improvement but it’s still below every level from 2024. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil prices are under pressure after a Reuters reporting saying that Kazakhstan has boosted oil production by 2% so far this month. The country is in a battle with OPEC over compensatory cuts it’s promised but failed to deliver after over-producing quotas. The report cites an industry source. The higher production has led to OPEC

0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at Barclays briefing ‘The monetary policy outlook’ The Bank of England have been cutting its Bank Rate. The next meeting is due 19 June 2025. Perhaps we’ll get some guidance on the next likely move from Pill later.

The USDCHF is trading with a modest bearish tilt in the short term, as price remains capped below a key confluence zone around 0.8363. This level marks the intersection of the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, as well as a downward sloping trend line — making it a clearly defined bias-defining level. As long as

Crude oil futures are settling at $62.69, up $0.20 or 0.32% on the day. WTI and Brent opened lower due to risk-off sentiment after Moody’s downgraded the US However, A Trump-Putin phone call added a positive tone, helping limit downside pressure. Trump described the call as very informative, suggesting Russia and Ukraine will start ceasefire

Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new mill, as part of a last-ditch effort to win U.S. approval for its takeover. The proposed acquisition has drawn bipartisan opposition, with both President Biden and former President Trump arguing U.S. Steel should remain American-owned. A fresh national security

Data on inflation for the March quarter provided further evidence that inflation continues to ease. Staff forecasts released today project that while headline inflation is likely to rise over the coming year to around the top of the band as temporary factors unwind, underlying inflation is now expected to be around the midpoint of the

South Korea and the United States are holding a second round of technical discussions this week in Washington over the U.S.’s reciprocal tariff measures. The three-day session will begin Tuesday (local time) Both sides are working toward a “package” trade agreement, targeted for early July. Talks will cover six key issues — trade imbalances, non-tariff

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Did discuss 25 bps or 50 bps cut. There’s more uncertainty than usual. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Will meet real economy’s financing needs. Will maintain reason growth of financial aggregates. Will increase efforts to support sci-tech innovation, boost consumption. Will support private economy, stabilise foreign trade. Will made good use of existing and incremental policies. Will strengthen monetary policy implmentation and transmission. Will promote international use of yuan. Will ‘resolutely’ safeguard national

Chinese state banks are cutting deposit rates today as previewed earlier: ICYMI – China’s state banks are expected to cut deposit rates today (Tuesday China time) So far we’ve had cuts announced from China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Bank of China. More now, from Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal