There’s a chance if we can open up trade to China, we could have more fair trade towards the US China has not yet rebalanced towards a consumption-oriented economy And that’s the end of the press conference. S&P 500 futures are up 2.8% on the day, up from around 1.5% gains before the joint statement […]

The de minimis exemption is a rule which allowed for certain e-commerce shipments of goods at $800 or less to enter duty-free. The $800 is the threshold amount so to speak. Any shipments below that will not incur import charges basically. This allowed a supposed “loophole” for online retailers – particularly fast fashion from China

This agreement is about reciprocal tariffs, which are now at 10% each We ended up with a result that is very good for the US and China There was no discussion on currency (Bessent) It is the first time that the Chinese understood the US’ position on fentanyl (Bessent) We are leaving with a very

South Korean initial exports data for May This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The times listed below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0800/0400 Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli delivers speech at King’s Business School 1030/0630 Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaks on a panel at the BoE’s Bank Watchers’ conference 2025 at King’s College Business School 0850 /1250 Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Both the US and China are making upbeat comments on trade talk progress, but details are sparse of course. Its not bad

When Trump talks something up, you can bet that there’s always going to be exaggeration to the story. Not least with talks with China, we’ve already gotten a precedent for that back in 2019. This time around is no different of course as he said that both sides “had a very good meeting” over the

Trump teasing a big tweet to come on his own social media app: We can only guess what this might be about. Some sort of ****coin launch? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan PM Ishiba: Autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters Economy minister Akazawa chimes in similarly: Security and forex are not part of trade discussions This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crypto media with the report: Goldman Sachs is now the largest holder of shares of IBIT, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, after boosting its holdings by 28% over the course of 2025’s first quarter. IBIT’s 20-day streak of net inflows is the longest such streak for any spot bitcoin ETF in 2025, drawing in over $5

Place your bets! US equity futures re-open. ES indication: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin Analysis for Today: tradeCompass Highlights Critical Levels Near $104,265 Today’s Bitcoin Futures (BTC) are trading at approximately $104,265, slightly below today’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at $104,530, signaling mild intraday bearish momentum. However, since the trading session is still developing, this early bearish signal remains tentative. tradeCompass Levels for May 12, 2025 Bullish

The US dollar is higher against both yen and euro in early FX trading (its VERY early, just after 5.20am in Tokyo and 4.20 in Singapore and Hong Kong). The US and China met in talks over the weekend in Switzerland. Nothing of substance has been announced by either side. They’ve said they’ll have announcements

Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng said a joint statement would be released in Geneva on Monday. Vice-Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said it would contain “good news for the world”. As yet I haven’t found a scheduled time for the release of this expected joint statement. What we have had so far from official statements has been

UK data – The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) employment intentions gauge fell from +13 to +8, the lowest level on record excluding the COVID-19 period Large private-sector employers were the main contributors to the decline, reflecting broader uncertainty. CIPD’s economist says hiring reluctance reflects weak business confidence amid rising costs and global

April 2025 inflation data from China was slipped out over the weekend while everyone was looking at Geneva (US-China initial trade talks) CPI: -0.1% y/y (expected -0.1%, prior -0.1%) +0.1% m/m (prior -0.4%) Core (ex food and energy) unchanged at +0.5% y/y PPI -2.7% y/y (expected -2.8%, prior -2.5%) PPI has been in deflation for

ICYMI, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson announcement on Sunday: Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend and deliver a speech at the opening ceremony of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in Beijing on May 13 Xi doesn’t speak publicly as often as Trump. This article was

“Hope”. That four-letter word. Globex is reopening soon, at the top of the hour. While its still very early the US dollar has been marked generally higher higher: There is still some time for a pre-open pump though: Trump says he is about to make “one of the most important and impactful” tweet ever! This

TRADER-UPDATE: Trump Tweets “Great Progress” in U.S.-China Trade Talks – But Final Deal Remains Uncertain Donald Trump has tweeted enthusiastically about recent trade discussions with China in Switzerland, calling them “friendly but constructive” and indicating that “great progress” has been made. While such optimism from Trump could be viewed positively, prompting market participants to anticipate

This sounds pretty good. US and Chinese negotiators are meeting again tomorrow so we’re likely to get some details before the weekly open. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier today there was a concerning escalation with Indian cruise missiles hitting Pakistan’s Nur Khan Airbase. Earlier, there was also an Indian military facility in Beas hit by Pakistan, supposedly destroying a storage facility for Brahmos missiles. I can’t confirm any of those reports but it looks like cooler heads have prevailed with both nuclear

The key events releases for next week include US CPI and PPI data, US retail sales: Australian employment data and UK GDP: Tuesday, May 13 GBP: Claimant Count Change (Forecast: 22.3K; Prev: 18.7K) USD: Core CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.3%; Prev: 0.1%) USD: CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.3%; Prev: -0.1%) USD: CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.4%; Prev: 2.4%)

According to Reuters,: Iran is preparing to send Russia launchers for short range ballistic missiles. That is a negative for two reasons. For one, the US is trying to put a governor on Iran and have them get more in line. The second isssue is the US and Trump administration is getting increasingly frustrated with

Canada April employment change +7.4K versus +2.5K expected Fed’s Williams: Expect growth to slow considerably, inflation and unemployment higher Fed’s Williams: Now is a time of great uncertainty and change Williams: Policy is in a good place and the Fed has time Trump says ‘many trade deals in the hopper’ Hassett: The UK trade deal

US yields moved modestly higher for the 2nd consecutive week. 2-year yield 3.883%, up 6.1 basis points for the week. That comes after a 6.6 basis point gain last week. 5-year yield 3.994%, up 7.7 basis points for the week. Last week yields rose 4.0 basis points. 10-year yield 4.382% up 7.4 basis points for

Some will be higher than 10% Could be exceptions We have to make a great deal with China He’s given a number to Bessent on how low he is willing to go Trump has front-run his own negotiation here to some extent. We’ll just have to see how it goes on the weekend and what

Polls have shown that Greenlanders are dead-against joining the USA but the Trump administration is looking to find another way to pull the island closer, according to a Reuters report. While the precise details of COFA agreements – which have only ever been extended to the small island nations of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and

Oil rig count -5 at 474 Nat Gas rig count unchanged at 101 Total rig count -6 at 578 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US crude oil futures are settling the day at $61.02. That’s $1.11 or 1.85%. For the trading day. The high was at $61.42. The low was at $59.92. The price moved up $3.07 or 4.46% for the trading week but it wasn’t until after reaching a low of $55.39 which was just above the low

The major indices closed mixed of the day and modestly lower for the week. A snapshot of the closing levels it shows: Dow industrial average fell -119.07 points or -0.29% at 41249.38. S&P index fell -4.03 points or -0.07% at 5659.91. NASDAQ index rose 0.78 points or 0.0% at 17928 .92. Russell 2000 fell-3.34 points

In the European session, we have a pretty empty agenda with just a couple of low tier data releases that won’t be market-moving. In the American session, we get the Canadian Employment report which is expected to show 2.5K jobs added in April and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.8% vs. 6.7% prior.

Nasdaq Futures Analysis for Today – May 9, 2025 Current Price: 20,200 Bias: Range-bound, with key reversal levels to monitor Today’s session is shaped by caution ahead of this weekend’s expected developments in U.S.–China trade negotiations. With uncertainty in the air and Friday’s typical low-volatility tone, the Nasdaq futures are likely to remain range-bound unless

Credit Agricole maintains an above-consensus medium-term bullish outlook on the USD, expecting a recovery in H2 2025 and 2026 driven by supportive fiscal policy, easing financial conditions, and sticky inflation. While some investors argue structural headwinds could undermine the dollar, the bank sees these risks as overstated. Key Points: Near-Term Recovery Drivers: Credit Agricole sees

Earlier this week, AUDUSD broke above a key swing area and the upper boundary of a consolidation range dating back to April 15, moving as high as 0.65135. The bullish breakout included a move above the 200-day moving average at 0.64587, signaling strong buying interest. However, momentum faded. Following the Fed rate decision on Wednesday,

Tariffs to lead to higher inflation and lower growth in US and abroad. Trump tariffs are without modern precedent. Given economic strength, monetayr policy is in a good position. I’m concerned that tariffs will lead to higher unemployment. Economic outlook clouded by trade policies that have increased uncertainty, hurt consumers and business sentiment. These are

At least one person got a new job in Canada in April — Mark Carney — today we will get a better sense of the economy he inherited with the April jobs report. There are clear signs of a slowdown in the Canadian economy with a drop in confidence and I’m particularly worried about falling

ICYMI, on Thursday the U.S. Treasury announced it will launch a fast track process to encourage investment from allied and partner nations. A “Known Investor” portal will be introduced to allow foreign investors to submit information to CFIUS in advance of a formal filing. The initiative will begin as a pilot program and expand over

NZDUSD attempted a downside break today, falling below key swing support and the 200-day moving average 0.58836, but after reaching a low of 0.5869, the price quickly rebounded, disappointing the sellers. The price is now showing signs of stabilization with the buyers pushing back higher. Sellers had their shot below 0..5883 to 0.58927. They missed.

Fed’s Barkin is starting to speak and says: Consumer spending and business investment still very solid Barkin is not a voting member until 2027 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The German DAX has completed its lap from the March 6 high to the April 7 low and back to the March 6 high. We run to the downside was a -21.245% decline The pair moved above that high at 23475, and in trading today reached a new intraday high price of 23543.27. The price

In the video above, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to kickstart the US forex trading day. What levels are in play and why. The Fed officials can now speak after the Fed decision on Wednesday: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said first-quarter growth data reflected frontloading of activity ahead of

Hassett is on TV at the same time saying there are 24 deals that are close. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Via Reuters polling expectations China’s export growth likely slowed to 1.9% y/y in April, sharply down from 12.4% in March (the March export surge was partly due to exporters rushing shipments ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes), as Trump’s new tariffs took effect. The range of expectations varied from down 3.5% to a rise of 7.0%.

German DAX futures +0.3% UK FTSE futures +0.4% S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.1% following the gains yesterday, though the run higher in Wall Street was rather middling in the end. Looking to the day ahead, all eyes will be on any headlines in the build up to US-China talks over the weekend. You

The Canada’s April 2025 jobs report showed a modest employment gain of 7.4K, beating the 2.5K forecast but coming off a sharp decline of 32.6K the prior month. The headline unemployment rate rose to 6.9%—above the 6.8% expected and the highest since 2021—partly due to a slight rise in labor force participation. Full-time employment rebounded

Wages data from Japan for March 2025 showed overtime salaries fell at the fastest pace in almost a year. total earnings +2.1% y/y (expected +2.3%, prior +3.1%) overtime pay -1.1% y/y (prior +2.4%) (overtime pay is often seen as an indicator of business actiivty, ie weakening in this case) inflation adjusted, ‘real’ wages -2.1% y/y

Trump will not unilaterally bring down tariffs on China 80% was a number Trump threw out there 10% baseline tariff will remain for UK 145% was a “thrown out” number too. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The labor market has proved to be resilient We want to get an idea of what the tariff policies will be Things are in a good place It’s hard to speculate what the Fed will do If the economy weakens more than expected it would call for deeper rate cuts The details on tariffs do

Markets on Edge as U.S.-China Tariff Talks Loom — and Limited Progress May Disappoint Investors Investors are entering the weekend with caution as U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled, with expectations centered around potential tariff reductions. Markets have partially priced in a move from the current 145% peak tariff rate on Chinese imports to something in

White House Navarro is saying: UK deal offers template on how they are going to proceed. Going to take good care of Boeing US – UK digital services terms still in negotiations. They will have an alternative arrangement with the UK on steel Asked about the EU says retaliation is a mistake The EU negotiations

It is being reported that India is offering to slash its tariffs gap with the US to below 4% (currently 13%) in exchange for an exemption to Trump’s tariffs. To achieve that, India is said to be offering to reduce duties to zero on 60% of tariff lines in the first phase of the deal.

A new Pope has been elected. Let me guess…Pres. Trump will make a joke, and JD Vance and Howard Lutnick will laugh. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

US VP Vance: US would walk away from Russia/Ukraine talks if Russia not engage in good faith Trump is right about Jerome Powell. Powell way too late in helping fight back against some trade deals Meanwhile, German PM Merz and Trump agree in phone call on the need to quickly resolve trade disputes. This according

Talks with Americans encouraging Have the impression the US is looking for tailor-made solutions with countries Pause on tariffs not to be lifted during negotiations Today the American side ‘clearly committed’ to accelerating talks Switzerland does not subsidize industry, but other countries may, these are the points the US is interested in Switzerland is now

Amritsar is a city of 1.4 million in the north of the country close to Pakistan. Reuters reports hearing four blasts in the city in a sign of the escalating conflict. Gold prices are up $37 to $3342 today in what’s been a very volatile week for the precious metal. This article was written by

Westpac forecast RBNZ rate cut of 25bp in May and 25bp cut in July NZD/USD barely changed, circa 0.5902. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US-UK trade deal agreement stole the spotlight yesterday but it hardly was what led Wall Street to rally. The framework for the deal lacked meaningful details but is at least a step in the right direction. Instead, the most important headline was arguably these remarks by Trump: TRUMP: BETTER GO OUT AND BUY STOCKS

Unclear how tariffs policy will shake out See some upside risk to inflation from tariffs Economy has been resilient so far Economic health gives Fed time to make progress on inflation On the headline remark, she’s referring to this here. However, this frontloading hasn’t really shown up in other forms of data surprisingly. So, that

USDCHF remains confined within a well-defined trading range after failed breakout attempts on both sides of a trading range going back April 23rd this week. On Wednesday, the pair dipped below the range floor at 0.8195, reaching a low of 0.8185, but momentum quickly faded and the move was reversed. Today, the price pushed above

I’ve been briefed on about 24 other deals that are close Markets will see that the new rules aren’t horribly disruptive Everything that’s been going on in Switzerland is positive for us, we’re seeing respect on both sides The UK model is the one everyone is shooting for I think you’re going to see a

Limited economic reaction to tariffs partly reflects expectations of looser BOE policy Should not neglect longer-term upward pressures on inflation from wages “Careful” rate cuts should be understood to represent being alert, agile to economic changes There is still some way to go on disinflation This is a rather soft defense of his position to

Coincident index 116.0 Prior 117.3 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like negotiations to end the Ukraine war are slowly falling apart but that could be an illusion as negotiations are always the toughest at the end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Expect growth to slow considerably, inflation and unemployment higher. We are focused on keeping inflation as close to target as possible. Key to think in scenarios in times of uncertainty. Factors keeping the long-run neutral rate low are still in place. I still see the long-run neutral rate as quite low. The markets are very

Fair to say that uncertainty around tariffs have raised risks to higher inflation, lower growth Growth has been strong over the last year and remains so today This just continues from his earlier remarks here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Now is a time of great uncertainty and change. Central bank independence delivers better outcomes. No comments on monetary policy or economic outlook. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview The stock market today presents a mixed tableau of sector performances, with electric vehicles taking center stage. Tesla (TSLA) leads the charge in the auto manufacturer space with a robust gain of 6.40%. This significant upswing is indicative of bullish sentiment surrounding the company, possibly fueled by positive sales figures or advancements in

EURUSD broke below a key floor area yesterday near 1.1256–1.1265 and is now retesting that level from the underside (see red numbered circles).This area is also where the 61.8% of the range since 2020 high is found (at 1.1271) and the July 2023 high is at 1.12754). More recently, this zone, acted as a support

The GBPUSD is extending higher as dollar selling gathers momentum. Stocks are lower with the S&P and Nasdaq indices now down -0.10%. The US yields are lower with the 10-year now down -2.0 basis points. The 2 year is down -5.0 basis points. The GBPUSD broke below a consolidation zone between 1.3232 and 1.3241 earlier

The Fed blackout is over and the floodgates have opened but Waller is apring us. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Trump says that 80% tariffs on China “seems right” Trump says that China should open up its market to the US India reportedly offers to cut tariffs gap by two-thirds to seal trade deal with the US How have interest rates expectations changed after the first trade deal? Fed’s Barr: Monetary policy is in

That’s a different tone than we heard from Powell. Bostic has been a hawk but he’s shifting here, evidently. It’s not prudent to adjust policy amid uncertainty I’ll keep an eye out for more headlines. The US dollar is rebounding after an earlier dip. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs now expects BoE to hold interest rates at the June meeting (Thursday, 19 June) vs prior forecast of a 25 bp cut. Expects BoE to cut rates at every meeting from August 2025 and reach 2.75% terminal rate in March 2026 The Bank cut yesterday: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to

“80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US labour market is stable, close to maximum employment. Past two recoveries suggest 3.5% unemployment sustainable. She delivered a very comprehensive speech on the topic of “Assessing Maximum Employment” here. Such speeches are always a learning experience for the newcomers. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks are set to open higher. Shares of banking on trade deals to come. US and China will meet in Switzerland. Pres. Trump said that 80% tariff seems about right (down from 145%). Realistically, 80% is still too high and will likely lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment as small businesses go out

The USDJPY is pushing higher today, supported by rising U.S. yields and a broader move higher in equities. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 6.2 basis points to 4.339%, providing a tailwind for the pair. From a technical perspective, the price has now moved above its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, which comes

AUD popped above 0.6400 after better than expected China exports data … be careful folks China January – April yuan denominated exports +7.5% y/y Goldman Sachs expects Bank of England hold at the June meeting China Vice Foreign Minister Hua: On US trade talks … ‘come on. We have no fear.’ US Treasury to establish

Crude oil futures are settling at $59.91, up $1.84 or 3.17%. The low price today reached $57.77. The high reached $60.02. Technically, the price is closing above the 100/200 hour MAs at $58.30 and $59.15. Getting and staying above those MAs gives the buyers some hope with the 38.2% of the move down from the

“CHINA SHOULD OPEN UP ITS MARKET TO USA — WOULD BE SO GOOD FOR THEM!!! CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!” Is this perhaps a hint of what he is going to put his focus on today? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Our commitment to the 2% inflation target is unwavering. It is good we have a diversity of views on MPC. We will use scenarios as vehicles for exploring risks around the baseline and accomodating differences of views on the committee. The latest choice of BoE scenarios does not mean inflation risk skewed in one direction.

Fed: 68 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 56 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 56 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (54% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 100 bps (99% probability of rate

Taking all stake continues to be the starting point for negotiations with the US government We are presenting a range of proposals in talks with the US government CFIUS expected to make a recommendation to US Steel deal to Trump by 21 May A decision by Trump is expected by 5 June At least now

Our policy right now is moderately restrictive. The labour market is stable and has been resilient. Q1 GDP showed the real side of the economy is resilient. Scenarios are important amid high degrees of uncertainty. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The funny thing about wonk economists is that they rarely look past the math. With 145% tariffs on China (or today’s Trump-floated number of 80%), they crunch the numbers and trade with China essentially stops. They run that through their models and that spits out assumptions around economic growth and inflation. It was the same

Prior was -32.6K Unemployment rate +6.9% vs. 6.8% expected Prior unemployment 6.7%. Full-time employment +31.5K vs -32.6K last month part-time employment -24.2K vs. +29.5k last month. Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.2% last month. Average hourly wages permanent employees 3.5% vs 3.5% y/ last month Unrounded unemployment 6.875% vs 6.715% prior Manufacturing employment -31K Total hours

On Thursday: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, as expected BOE governor Bailey: Interest rates are not on auto-pilot BOE governor Bailey: Don’t know what to expect from UK-US trade deal for now Coming up at 0840 GMT / 0440 US Eastern time on Fridat #dat: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey

US Commerce Sec Lutnick was speaking in a Fox interview: We want a trade deal from a big country from Asia I am focused on big countries for the next trade deals The UK deal helps ease reliance on the China supply chain a bit Earlier from the Com Sec: Lutnick says the best any

It will be an interesting weekend for the markets. Japan is most clever at protecting its own markets. Countries lining up to talk trade with the US. The EU very high on the priority list in trade talks. VAT tax in Europe is a problem for the US. The weekend risk here is high for

China’s semiconductor foundry, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), will closely monitor the impact of tariffs on demand warned of uncertain demand and trade-related risks projecting a potential Q2 revenue decline of up to 6% While U.S. tariffs provided a modest lift in orders, Co-CEO Zhao Haijun noted the overall effect was limited. The company remains

Japan finance minister Kato headline crossing: Not appropriate to lower consumption tax This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Will expand domestic demand, stabilise expectations Will maintain ample liquidity To grasp the strength and pace of policy implementation with flexibility Will keep prices at reasonable levels Will further improve framework of interest rate adjustment To maintain yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable, balanced level These are the usual volley of comments by the

80% tariff on China seems right. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China is considering banning pre-sales of homes, requiring developers to sell only completed properties to reduce risks and stabilise the housing market. The proposed reform is part of a “new model” of real estate development being formulated by the central government, though details are still being finalised. The rule would apply only to future land

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 mark. Amid a firmer dollar, the expiries here could help to act as a bit of a floor for price action before we get to US trading. That is considering the

The Catholic Church has elected American Robert Prevost, 69, as its new leader. He is the first American and the first native-English speaker to be named Pope but also speaks Spanish, Italian, French and Portuguese and can read Latin and German. He has taken the name Leo. Prevost headed the Vatican Dicastery for Bishops, which

Fed’s Kugler Flags Diverging Forces: Tariffs May Fuel Inflation While Weak Demand Slows Growth Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler highlighted the complex economic picture facing policymakers, noting that while headline GDP contracted by 0.3%, private domestic final purchases (PDFP) — a key gauge of consumer and business activity — grew at a solid 3%, signaling

A UK Official is commenting on the US/UK trade deal: Deal with the US is not a finished trade agreement, but it is substantive We have got more serious work to do. On sectorial up front, there are vital winds for UK on steel, autos, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace. Got some reassurance on movie tariffs. There

But if I go to the White House, I want to have a package, solution In other words, there’s really not much to talk about for now between the EU and the US on any deal. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In overall terms, the numbers here were much better than expected as China exports in particular held up. However, the devil is always in the details. China’s exports to the US actually fell by nearly 18% on the month from March to April. So, what gives? It is basically this: How China has been preparing

The numbers are here, exports did not plunge as feared. They were lower than in March, but the pipelines were jammed full in March ahead of more Trump tariffs. April figures, in US dollar terms: exports +8.1% y/y Putting on my sceptical hat for a minute …. There are sometimes questions about the veracity of

Standard Chartered is reconsidering its US$120,000 BTC forecast for Q2 2025: “I apologise that my USD120k Q2 target may be too low,” Stan Chart see the crypto heading higher, citing: strategic asset reallocation away from US assets accumulation by whales dominant story for Bitcoin has changed … it was correlation to risk assets … It

The times listed below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 0955/0555 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market” before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland 1045/0645 Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Maximum Employment” before the Reykjavik Economic Conference 1230/0830 Federal

Economic outlook clouded by trade politics that have increased uncertainty Tariffs to lead to higher US inflation, lower growth starting later this year Fed may be in a difficult position if both inflation and unemployment rise Equally concerned tariffs will lead to higher unemployment as economy slows Tariffs could create persistent upward pressure on inflation

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost across the board yesterday on positive expectations about the first trade deal that eventually was revealed to be with the UK. Trump announced that tariffs on cars and steel will be lowered but the most important part was that the 10% “global tariff” will remain in place. The

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.6% France CAC 40 +0.6% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% US futures are also keeping steadier, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.1%. The US-UK trade deal agreement yesterday helped to steady the ship but it was mostly comments from Trump that caused markets to rally.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

If this trade deal with the UK was announced two or three weeks ago, I would have said that it’s really good for the markets and would have been very upbeat on risk sentiment. The context is a bit different now, in my opinion. Recall back in the middle of April, Fed’s Waller outlined his

Crypto is adding to its gains. Its been sideways since January but the news for it has improved since April. Reports just now of fresh Bitcoin buying from El Salvador by the folks at Zero Hedge, the country is a keen adopter of BTC. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is as what you’d expect from China ahead of the talks tomorrow. The question now is, are we going to see the US drop its tariff levels before both sides sit down at the table over the weekend? It’s certainly a consideration, particularly after this report here. That will help to at least try

Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US. Geopolitics since the starts of the year is bad news for the economy. There is downward pressure on inflation. Need to watch for China goods rerouting to Europe. ECB June projections may be a little bit worse. June ECB cut is needed. There is no central

The usual commentary is continuing by the ECB for the time being. Traders are pricing in a ~90% probability of a rate cut for their next policy decision in June. So, there’s not much change to the rhetoric and narrative for now. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China Vice Foreign Minister Hua: United States cannot ‘sustain what it is doing’ in trade policy China has ‘full confidence’ in its ability to manage US trade issues China does not want a ‘war of any kind with any other country’ China has ‘full capability to overcome difficulties’ amid trade war ‘Ordinary people’ in China

2345 GMT / 1945 US Eastern time: Participation by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel in panel discussion at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference – Finishing the Job and New Challenges’ at Harvard University This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Lost amid the noise on tariffs was the news from TSLA that its officially canning the Cybertruck range extender battery. Tesla confirmed to Cybertruck owners that it’s “no longer planning to sell” the $16,000 battery pack Tesla will issue refunds for any deposit put down by customers The range extender was problematic from the get-go:

The New York Post reports that the US is weighing a plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% next week from 145%. “US officials are discussing a proposal to lower President Trump’s punishing levy on China goods to between 50% and 54% as they begin what promise to be lengthy talks to

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: if a country opens its markets the best it can hope for is a 10% US tariff Deescalation with China is Bessent’s goal in talks says favours Trumps plan for raising the tax rate on high earners WH Trade Adviser Navarro says: US is not getting rid of the tariffs on

Japan March 2025 household spending +2.1% y/y (expected +0.2%, prior -0.5%) +0.4% m/m (expected -0.5%) Improvement in this data point. Comments from a Japan govt official: See some signs of consumption recovering Consumers still being frugal on food spending We also had wages data from Japan, not so hot: Japan data – March Labor Cash

April trade data from China should begin to show tariff impacts. Eyes will be on Switzerland this weekend for the first tentative steps towards a trade deal between the US and China. The latest: White House weighing plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% – report This snapshot from the ForexLive economic

Major US indices close higher for the second consecutive day VP Vance:US would walk away from Russia/Ukraine talks if Russia not engaging in good faith White House weighing plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% – report White House Navarro: To the EU, retaliation is a mistake Crude oil futures settle at

Bloomberg (gated) report on China buying nearly US$1bn in agricultural product from Argentina instead of the US: China agreement with exporters in Argentina non-binding letter of intent signed Bloomberg cite two people familiar with the matter China is already Argentina’s biggest buyer of unprocessed soybeans. Some Friday muzak: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China January – April yuan-denominated exports +7.5% y/y, imports -4.2% y/y ** For April alone, yuan-denominated exports +9.3% (prior +13.5%) … this is a good result given the tariff impact, if the data is correct imports +0.8% y/y (prior -3.5%) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD has also broke to the downside as focus turns to the EU as a potential whipping dog for Trump. Technically, the prices also making a key break below support. The low price going back to April 15 and May 1 at 1.1265 was broken. Before that, the 61.8% retracement of the trading range

High yield 4.819% WI level at the time of the auction 4.812% Tail +0.7 bps vs 6 month average of -0.3 bps Bid to cover 2.31X vs 6 -month avg. of 2.45X DIrects 27.21% vs 6 month average of 22.3% Indirects 58.88% vs 6 month average of 63.9% AUCTION GRADE: D+ Domestic demand is higher.

The major US stock indices are closing the day higher but well off their high levels of the day. Dow industrial average rose to 54.48 points or 0.62% at 41368.45. At session highs, the index was up 659.25 points S&P index rose 32.66 points or 0.58% at 5663.94. At session highs, the index is up

The US dollar stormed ahead today, particularly USD/JPY which is now up 210 pips to 145.93. Some thoughts on what’s driving the move: 1) A delayed reaction to the Fed Powell was hawkish yesterday and the market has priced out about 40 basis points in Fed rate cuts in the past two weeks. 2) The

The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but the surprise came in the vote split. The decision passed with a 7-2-0 vote, falling short of the anticipated unanimous 9-0-0. Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden pushed for a deeper 50 basis point cut, while Catherine Mann and Huw

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the key components shows: Tail -0.3 basis points Bid to Cover 2.45X Directs (domestic buyers) 22.3% Indirects (international buyers) 63.9% Dealers 13.8% The last auction had a high yield of 4.813%. The current

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

“The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other

Donald Trump is not known for underselling. Here are some of the details: UK has committed to fast-tracking US goods imports Agreement increases access for beef and ethanol UK will reduce non-tariff barriers Final details will be written up in the coming weeks I think China wants to make a deal very badly too We’re

Well there it is. Trump is talking like 10% is the floor, answering a big question in the markets. Now Trump often says one thing and does another but that doesn’t bode well for making many deals. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

“Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and “eggs”) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF “TOO LATE!” ENJOY!” We all expected Trump to be

Similar to February, it’s a case of focusing on voting intentions when it comes to the BOE reaction. The central bank moved to cut the bank rate by 25 bps to 4.25% as expected. However, the vote split is what is raising eyebrows as we look to digest the situation. Dhingra and Taylor voting for

Today’s Market Overview The US stock market presents a mixed picture today, with notable performances in the consumer cyclical and communication services sectors. Giants like Tesla and Google are emerging as the day’s winners, while the healthcare sector faces significant setbacks. 📈 Consumer Cyclical & Communication Services Tesla (TSLA) shines: Tesla has surged by 1.97%,

The market is waiting for the announcement of a UK-US trade deal at 10 am ET but the details so far leaving the market disappointed. The UK FTSE 100 has fallen into negative territory after earlier trading higher. A report from CNN indicated this is a vague ‘deal’ that leaves on the 10% US tariffs

The USDCAD is moving higher after a week or so of gradually lower lows, all of which were quickly reversed, signaling that sellers lacked conviction (see lows on the chart above). That dynamic shifted more definitively after the FOMC rate decision, which fueled broad USD buying and helped push the pair above the 100- and

I posted a summary of the Bank of Japan March meeting minutes here earlier: BoJ minutes: Bank will raise rates if economic and price projections realised In that post you’ll find some points being made in favour of staying on hold, and other points being made saying the Bank needs to able to respond quickly

The dollar is gaining some slight ground but gold is among the more noticeable movers to start the session. The precious metal is now down 0.7% on the day and touching a low of $3,336. That is running close to the 100-hour moving average (red line) of $3,330. Keep above and the near-term bias stays

The USDCHF continues to consolidate between clearly defined range extremes with resistance near 0.8333 and support at 0.81952. Yesterday’s price action briefly pushed below that lower boundary, reaching a low of 0.8185 during the FOMC-related volatility, but buyers quickly stepped in, rejecting the downside break. Currently, the pair is rotating around its 100- and 200-hour

From the day before: China president Xi to visit Moscow later today This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters (may be gated) with the report: Ukraine is starting to consider a shift away from the U.S. dollar, possibly linking its currency more closely to the euro amid the splintering of global trade and its growing ties to Europe, Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi told Reuters. Potential accession to the European Union, a “strengthening

The UK is now offering up its spin on the deal: Aluminum and steel tariffs reduced to zero US deal gives unprecedented access for British farmers to US market Will remove UK tariffs of US ethanol UK has market access on beef with a tariff-free quota of 13,000 metric tonnes UK and US have agreed

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1300 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance though, so the impact might not be too striking. But amid a bit of a wait until we get to Trump’s trade deal

Disinflation in domestic prices, wage pressures is continuing Expect gradual easing of inflation pressure Overall impact of tariffs on inflation is still uncertain Following developments of UK-US trade deal closely I haven’t been briefed about the details of the matter however Hopes for the trade deal to reduce uncertainty Need to watch carefully for second-round

The EURUSD is trading back to the downsideas sellers leaned early against key resistance levels (near 100 and 200 hour MA) and instead pushed toward a critical support zone. The price has now returned to a key support area between 1.1265 and 1.12754, a zone that previously acted as a springboard for upside moves. This

A note from economists at Goldman Sachs, via a Bloomberg (gated) article. In summary: Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast for US core PCE inflation (the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy): 3.8% at the end of 2025 (from their previous estimate of 3.5%) 2.7% at the end of 2026 (previous estimate 2.3%)

Important to not just look at the trade impact But important to also look at how financial markets have reacted to trade developments This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -1.3% German industrial output bounced back after the drop in February, with increases seen across all main groups. The production of consumer goods and capital goods each rose by 4.9%, and production of intermediate goods by 1.1%. That if offset by a drop in energy production of 1.8% on the month. This article was

Would like to see China opened up. Expects a friendly meeting with China Says he believes discussions will be substantive with China China wants to do something, they have to We will see where this goes but it sounds like tariffs could be lowered this weekend. How much though? “Well, it could be. I mean,

Risk assets are running today and crypto is flying. Bitcoin is up 4.7% to $101K in the first break above that level since early February. Ethereum is up nearly 15%. The market likes what it heard about Trump’s trade deal with the UK. The President was also upbeat on talks with China and said they

Report from the Telegraph: This will be part of a 12-month temporary deal ahead of what sides hope is a comprehensive deal Will cut beef tariffs close to zero Tariff on UK steel exports will also be lowered, but rate not finalized The announcement is running late but it looks like these are the important

Fundamental Overview The Fed yesterday kept its usual neutral stance and Fed Chair Powell didn’t offer anything in terms of forward guidance citing elevated uncertainty. The event didn’t move gold since there wasn’t anything new. What impacted gold negatively was Trump saying that he would make a big announcement concerning a major trade deal today.

year-head at 3.63% vs 3.58% prior Three-year inflation +3.2% vs 3.0% prior Five-year inflation +2.7% vs 2.9% prior Three-year ahead expected inflation highest since July 2022 Measures of labor market, income and earnings expectations all declined That last bullet point is worrisome. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower yesterday and moved back below the 200 day MA (currently at 0.64608) and the rising 100 hour MA (blue line currently at the same 0.64608 level). The fall stalled near the 200 hour MA into the close and rebounced in the early Asian Pacific session. The price move higher earlier in

Prior was +0.5% Wholesale sales +0.6% vs +1.9% prior (revised to +2.0%) Something isn’t adding up with the huge surge in US imports. They’re not showing up in consumption, re-export or inventories. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Trump trade deal with the UK is igniting stocks with the major indices all up by over 1.4%. The snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average is trading up 576 points or 1.40% at 41688.78. S&P index is up 78.23 points or 1.40% at 5709. NASDAQ index is trading up 317 points

Prior was +2.2% (revised to 2.0%) Productivity prelim -0.8% vs -0.7% expected Prior productivity +1.5% (revised to +1.7%) There is an inflationary impulse in these numbers but it’s a tough report to extrapolate from because it’s choppy and more of a lagging indicator than a leading one. This article was written by Adam Button at

Prior €17.7 billion The German trade surplus expanded slightly in March as exports were seen up 1.1% on the month while imports fell by 1.4% on the month. Overall, the foreign trade balance closed with a surplus of €21.1 billion and that is roughly the same as in March last year (a surplus of €20.5

Space and Time, the Microsoft-backed blockchain for zero-knowledge (ZK)-proven data, is live on its public, permissionless mainnet. Space and Time is designed to deliver ZK-proven data to smart contracts to power a new generation of data-driven crypto applications. It indexes data from other major blockchains, including Ethereum, and stores it across a decentralized network of

But as per the latest report here, it seems that the so-called deal is just an agreement for negotiations to begin. It will just involve a framework for discussions over the coming weeks/months. So, we’ll see about that. But as always, one can expect Trump to talk up a big game and that is keeping

A reporter asked Trump: “Are you open to pulling back your tariffs in order to get China to the negotiating table?” Trump replied : “No.” I wouldn’t take this at face value. What’s he going to say? Yes he is? Before the meeting in Switzerland on the weekend? You don’t have to have studied The

“This should be a very big and exciting day for the United States of America and the United Kingdom. Press Conference at The Oval Office, 10A.M. Thank you!” Again, that will be at 1400 GMT. We all already know now that it will be an agreement to the terms for a trade deal i.e. framework

US needs to be prepared to revoke unilateral tariffs. As a reminder, US and China will hold talks on trade this weekend in Switzerland although the expectations have been set low by the US Treasury Secretary Bessent as he said that it’s more about de-escalation than negotiations for a trade deal. Trump said that he

Russia and China have released a joint statement: Intend to ramp up cooperation in order to decisively counter US efforts to contain them both Will continue to strengthen military cooperation That’s a powerful moment in geopolitics. This pair pledged ‘friendship without limits’ years ago and have backed it up. This article was written by Adam

The Bank of Canada is out with its latest Financial Stability report. It’s mostly a risk-highlighting exercise that has little impact on financial markets but I do want to highlight one part of the report because I believe that housing market risks are mounting and prices are falling. Among households with a mortgage, 60% are

Rate Cuts & Monetary Policy Can’t make a projection now, have to wait until June. Will have to see how things play out. Not at all clear what appropriate monetary policy response would be. Time to wait before adjusting policy. There are cases in which rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and also cases

This is a bad sign for hopes that we could get back to 0%. It indicates that 10% is a floor and I don’t think many countries are going to go for that. From the White House CNN reporter: Trump’s trade announcement with the UK will be limited in scope, heavy on future commitments &

Headlines: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, as expected BOE governor Bailey: Interest rates are not on auto-pilot BOE governor Bailey: Don’t know what to expect from UK-US trade deal for now Trump says agreement with UK is a full and comprehensive one UK believed to have made concessions on food, agriculture

The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, sending GBPUSD initially lower to the session’s low and briefly breaking below the recent support floor near 1.1254—an area that had held over the past week. However, the move quickly reversed as traders digested the mixed vote, which included dissenters on both sides of the

The two-minute delay is to commemorate VE Day, so just be wary of that. As for what to expect, here is what analysts are saying ahead of the decision (h/t @ MNI Markets): HSBC- 25 bps rate cut (8-1 vote, Dhingra to vote for 50 bps)- “There are a number of on-off doves who could

It is reported that the UK has agreed to give some concessions on food and agriculture imports from the US in exchange for lower tariffs on autos. More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

“In light of the national two minutes of silence to commemorate the 80th anniversary of VE day, the Monetary Policy Report and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published at 12.02pm (BST) on Thursday 8 May 2025, instead of the regular time of 12pm (BST).” Just a heads up ahead of the

The visit will be in conjunction with the 2nd ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit that will take place on 27 May. The sources say that Chinese premier Li Qiang will be a high-profile attendee as Beijing hopes to rally more allies in fighting back against US tariffs. Li’s visit will follow up on China president

Xi: China, Russia should make greater contributions to safeguard international fairness and justice Should deepen political mutual trust, strengthen strategic coordination Should push bilateral relations to be more mature and resilient Putin: Talks were warm and sensitive Russia-China relations are self-sufficient Will continue to increase the share of our national currencies in settlements As mentioned

The source here is ‘Wall Street Execs’ so take it with a grain of salt but this isn’t a good sign: BREAKING: Wall Street execs with contracts in the White House say the plan for trade deals on tap — India, Japan, South Korea and Australia— is to have tariffs at or around 10 per

Prior week 241K Initial jobless claims 228K versus 230K estimate (for March 3 week) 4-week moving average 227.0 K versus 226.0 K last week Continuing claims 1.879M versus 1886M estimate Prior week continuing claims 1.908M revised lower from 1.916M last week 4- week continuing claims 1.875M vs 1.866M last week These are the one-week delayed

German DAX futures +0.6% UK FTSE futures +0.7% The optimism comes as Trump touts a “major” trade deal announcement later in the day, in which he will be speaking about at 1400 GMT. The reports are suggesting this to be with the UK but the devil is in the details. As mentioned here, it might

The countdown to FMAS:25 has begun. With just less than a month left until Africa’s largest trading summit kicks off, this year’s event is shaping up to be a massive opportunity for traders eager to sharpen their strategies and walk away with exclusive knowledge from the best. From expert masterclasses to hands-on workshops and access

The US stocks are heading lower after the Fed decision. The big part of the statement was that “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen”. A snapshot of the market shows: Dow up 41 points

The EU is deeming this to be a part of a “mutually beneficial and balanced solution” as both sides are seeking negotiations on trade. The €95 billion will cover a broad range of industrial and agricultural products. And adding to that, the EU is also seeking possible restrictions on certain exports of steel scrap and

The report pretty much confirms that this is a “heads of terms” agreement. In other words, it is a preliminary agreement and a “substantive” step towards a full deal. As for the details, it is all still rather lacking at the moment. Sky’s deputy political editor, Sam Coates, added that this is also a positive

Details to come… This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Info via Reuters report: The U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments are drafting plans for a sovereign wealth fund, though no final decisions have been made, according to the White House. The initiative, ordered by Trump in February, would aim to monetise government-held assets for public benefit and bolster economic security. A central feature under consideration

The EU is considering imposing tariffs on €95bn of US imports. Tariff proposal include meat, fish and agricultural products. Also chemicals, metal goods, wine and beer. The EU will launch WTO complaint against US tariffs. This proposal was expected so don’t fret about it. The EU continues to repeat that it prioritises finding mutually beneficial

South Korean media (Yonhap) reporting that North Korea has fired off a ballistic missile. fires off North Korea’s east coast This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Over the weekend, Reuters reported that OPEC+ was considering to further speed up oil production hikes as Saudi Arabia signalled it was unwilling to prop up the market any longer amid poor compliance with production quotas from Iraq and Kazakhstan. The market opened with a big negative gap, but there was no follow through, in

Most of the market’s focus will be on today’s initial jobless claims report at the bottom of the hour (along with Q1 productivity data) but the report I’m watching for is the March wholesale inventory report. The consensus is for a 0.5% rise but I’m looking for a higher number or a revision higher in

Trump’s announcement: Trump spruiks a major trade deal announcement Thursday morning in Washington As expected, markets react by bidding up stocks. This is Globex S&P 500 (it’s a CFD that tracks ES): Overnight trade is thinner than in regular trading hours, so don’t go betting the farm, OK? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

You will hear more from me later today on US economic deal. I will always act in national interest. Well, now we just wait for the details… This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Former Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda urged calm in response to Trump’s tariffs, saying Japan should “sit down and respond” rather than overreact to frequent U.S. policy shifts. He criticised the tariffs as inflationary and self-defeating, warning they could hurt U.S. consumption and growth and lead to 4–5% inflation by early autumn. Kuroda noted that

Prior 4.50% Bank rate vote 7-2-0 vs 9-0-0 expected (Dhingra, Taylor voted to cut by 50 bps while Mann, Pill voted to keep bank rate unchanged at 4.50%) There has been substantial progress on disinflation over the past two years That progress has allowed the BOE to withdraw gradually some degree of policy restraint Bank

UK official confirms Trump expected to announce US deal outline. The official added that the two countries had made good progress that would likely include lower tariff quotas on steel and cars. As a reminder, the US imposed the baseline 10% global tariff rate on UK. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

New Zealand PM Luxon: Budget 2025 net capital allowance is NZ$4 bln vs prior estimate of NZ$3.6 bln Total capital expenditure allocation in Budget 2025 is NZ$6.8 bln Sharp deterioration of financial markets in early April have somewhat recovered but markets remain volatile International environment clearly matters a lot but I remain confident about our

Trump said he will announce a “major” trade deal on Thursday: WSJ – Trump is expected to announce a framework of a trade deal with the U.K. New York Times says Trump will announce a trade deal with the UK Trump spruiks a major trade deal announcement Thursday morning in Washington Other Chinese Embassy in

Eurostoxx +0.7% Germany DAX +0.7% France CAC 40 +0.5% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% The positive mood holds up as we get into European trading, with market players eyeing Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with the UK later. Or at least the agreement of the framework of a deal,

Uh-oh. The Wall Street Journal is pouring some cold water on the earlier headlines: The announcement, which Trump teased late Wednesday on Truth Social as being with a “big, and highly respected country,” is expected to be a framework of an announcement with tariff adjustments. “This announcement is likely just an agreement to start the

The US dollar caught a solid bid in the back half of the press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and I’m not quite sure why. The moves aren’t huge but in the 20-30 pip range including a 70 pip bounce in USD/JPY from an initial dip. The overwhelming message from the FOMC was that

Trump: Big news conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m., the Oval Office, Concerning a major trade deal with representatives of a big, and highly respected, country. The first of many. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The minutes from the Bank of Japan due today are for the March meeting. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column

The seller of the USDJPY tried, but the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart found support buyers. The low reached 142.89. The inability to move lower, gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher, and they did. The price moved up toward the 100-bar MA at 143.953 on the 4-hour chart after moving through

It’s almost showtime. The initial FOMC statement was hawkish in my reading as it conceded nothing on a softening economy or jobs market while noting higher risks on both sides of its mandate. It also explained away the GDP report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, the only highlight is the BoE policy decision. The central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the bank rate to 4.25% with a 9-0 vote split (although Dhingra could vote for a 50 bps cut). This is widely expected as the BoE has been repeating that cutting once

The positive news on trade deals continue to boost the US Dollar. This has more to do with positioning rather than fundamentals for now. In fact, the short dollar trade has been one of the most crowded ones and therefore it’s at risk of unwindings on positive news on the trade front. USDJPY is now

The dollar is trading higher now to start European trading as the UK confirms that Trump’s announcement later will be an agreement to a framework for a trade deal. This means laying out the groundwork and discussion points for negotiations over the next few weeks/months, but at least there is some progress. USD/JPY has raced

Here’s Trump’s announcement post: Trump spruiks a major trade deal announcement Thursday morning in Washington The New York Times says now it’ll be with the UK. The U.S. and Britain have been in talks over lowering British tariffs on American cars and agricultural products, as well as removing UK digital taxes on U.S. tech firms.

China is not going into the talks in Switterland without making its position crystal clear. The Global Time convert the message from the Chinese Embassy in the US: Chinese embassy in the United States: US reaches out via multiple channels for tariff talks; China agrees after evaluation at US request China’s consistent stand against US

Crypto-media reporting: Arizona passes bill to establish Bitcoin reserve after vetoing separate crypto legislation Arizona has joined New Hampshire in embracing Bitcoin Governor Hobbs signed a bill creating a Bitcoin and Digital Assets Reserve Fund The reserve fund will oversee digital assets, preventing Bitcoin from being used for general fund transfers. — Bitcoin has hit

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Ken Griffin is founder and CEO of the Citadel hedge fund, he spoke in an interview with CNBC. In summary: Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned that Trump’s tariffs act like a “sales tax,” disproportionately hurting working-class Americans trying to make ends meet. Griffin said Trump must focus on managing inflation, which he called the “primary

Prior -0.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices beat estimates to climb in April, with the average property price moving up to £297,781. Halifax notes that: “We know the stamp duty changes prompted a surge in transactions in the early part of this year, as buyers rushed to beat the

Rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace Highlights that swings in net exports affected GDP data Labor market conditions remain solid FOMC judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen No dissents This is a hawkish statement and doesn’t tee

March 19May 07, 2025 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Share RecentShare Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is answering questions in parliament: Uncertainties over rice and other food prices remain high, but prices likely to settle down eventually Mindful of impact of rising food prices on underlying inflation Will closely monitor price situations as uncertainties over global economy remain high Earlier: BoJ minutes: Bank will raise rates

Banco Central do Brasil summary headlines via Reuters: The decision was unanimous. Additional caution is needed for the next meeting. The scenario also demands flexibility to incorporate data that impact the inflation outlook. The Bank will remain vigilant, and the calibration of monetary policy tightening will continue to be guided by the objective of bringing

US stocks close higher thanks to late comments on chips from Trump Trump will not enforce the AI diffusion rule on chip exports – report Some bucketing of the Fed chair comments. Powell Q&A: I don’t think we can say which way this will shake out Powell: Economy is solid, our policy is well positioned

South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves fell by nearly $5 billion in April to $404.67 billion — the lowest level since April 2020 — as authorities intervened to stabilise currency markets amid trade tensions. The Bank of Korea cited FX swap operations with the national pension fund as a key factor behind the drop, aimed at

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby warned that U.S. tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and impact New Zealand’s economy, with some local industries more exposed than others. Hawkesby told a parliamentary committee: “We know from our experience, from the COVID experience, that supply side impacts are significant, and that are

Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the Federal Reserve to remain on pause for the time being, citing recent labour market strength that has helped justify the central bank’s cautious stance. “The Fed remains in a holding pattern as it waits for uncertainty to clear,” the firm said in a note. While job data has come

Major U.S. equity indices ended the day in positive territory after a choppy session marked by sharp swings in tech stocks and shifting investor sentiment around trade and Fed policy. Early pressure came from weakness in Alphabet and Apple shares, following comments from Apple’s VP of Services indicating that search and browser usage declined in

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

RBNZ governor Hawkesby: Strained functioning of global markets create significant problems Supply-side impacts from tariffs could impact New Zealand significantly A lot of uncertainty about how structural framework of global economy realigns itself due to tariffs Most immediate impact is on confidence Labour market data highlighted the subdued nature of New Zealand’s economy RBNZ will

May 07, 2025 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid.

The NZDUSD is currently trading near a critical technical zone defined by a convergence of major moving averages. The 100-hour MA, 200-hour MA, and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart are tightly grouped between 0.5956 and 0.5965, creating a key barometer area for traders. This cluster has acted as a pivot in recent sessions,

Surveys of households and businesses show a sharp decline It remains to be seen how these developments will reflect consumers and investment Labor market is broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment Inflation remains somewhat elevated Administration doing policy changes in: Trade, immigration, regulation cited Tariffs so far have been significantly larger than anticipated

When tariff policies settle out, it’s too early to say what will be the implications for the economy Says “I don’t think we know” how long it will take to understand risks Economy has been resilient and is in good shape We don’t think we need to be in a hurry, the data may move

MUFG argues that despite a possible hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell at today’s FOMC meeting, market dynamics suggest the USD is unlikely to benefit meaningfully. Structural uncertainty and expectations of economic slowdown continue to weigh on the dollar, even as rate differentials have shifted modestly in its favor. Key Points: No policy change expected:The

The S&P index is closing lower for the second consecutive day. That comes after nine straight days of gains. The NASDAQ and Dow industrial average also fell. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -390.83 or -0.95% at 40829.00. S&P index -43.52 points or -0.77% at 5606.86 NASDAQ index -154.58 points or

Over the past six trading days, USDCAD has followed a pattern of making new lows every other day—last Wednesday, last Friday, and again yesterday (Tuesday). If that pattern continues, it would suggest that today will not see a new low. Time will tell. Interestingly, each of these new lows has been quickly reversed, indicating a

Apple VP of services Eddie Cue is saying that Apple is exploring adding AI to search browsers. The comments seem to have turned the stock market. The NASDAQ is now down around -59 points or -0.33% at 17631. The S&P is also dipping into negative territory.. Shares of Google have been impacted by the announcement.

They are saying that if the US wants a deal, then they would have to stop threatening China. These are all fighting words but the bottom line is that we are at least taking a step towards de-escalation as both sides are set to sit down for initial talks. However, whether or not that step

Apple’s SVP of Services, Eddy Cue, revealed that search and browser usage declined for the first time in April. In response, Apple is reportedly exploring the integration of AI-powered search capabilities into its browsers—a potential shift that poses a direct threat to Alphabet, which benefits from a lucrative revenue-sharing agreement with Apple for default Google

Prior -4.2% Market index 248.4 vs 223.7 prior Purchase index 162.8 vs 146.6 prior Refinance index 721.0 vs 649.0 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.84% vs 6.89% prior That’s a modest rebound in mortgage applications as both purchases and refinancing activity jumped in the past week. The average rate of the most popular US home loan

Trump has a long wish list for tax cuts in Congress this year and GOP leaders are aiming to pass the bill by July 4 but it won’t be easy. The deficit is already at 7% of GDP and growth is slowing. In addition, the tax cuts will slash government revenue as interest payments continue

TMGM, a global leader in online trading and investment services, proudly stood at the forefront of Vanuatu’s economic dialogue as the Gold Sponsor of the highly anticipated #YumiStanap Vanuatu event. This TEDx-inspired conference, which took place on Thursday, April 24, 2025, at Farea Pacifik, Le Lagon, united a powerhouse lineup of experts, government leaders, and

The Fed today is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50% and overall maintain a neutral stance given the uncertainty around tariffs and inflation expectations. The market is pricing around 80 bps of easing by year-end but Fed Chair Powell could push back against such dovish expectations triggering a repricing to around 50 bps,

Yesterday, AUDUSD briefly pushed above the 0.6504 swing high from early December 2024, but the breakout failed to gain traction, and the pair has since reversed lower (see 4-hour chart above). The inability to hold above that key resistance level suggests buyers lacked the momentum to drive the next leg higher and has helped lead

Fed: 78 bps (99% probability of no change at today’s announcement) ECB: 62 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 94 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 48 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 110 bps (97% probability of rate cut

PrimeXBT, a regulated multi-asset broker, has significantly broadened its instrument lineup on MetaTrader 5 (MT5), adding over 100 new assets and trading pairs across all key markets. This major update strengthens the broker’s cross-asset range and provides traders with expanded access to global financial markets through an all-in-one trading experience. The newly added instruments include

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a vibrant rally, particularly in the consumer cyclical sector, with Amazon (AMZN) leading the way with an impressive gain of 3.11%. The sector showcases robust investor sentiment, driven by optimistic forecasts and strong consumer demand. Meanwhile, the technology sector shows moderate yet consistent gains, with Microsoft (MSFT) up

Eurostoxx -0.2% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.2% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% German stocks were the highlight yesterday as it did recover with Merz securing the chancellor seat in the second time of asking. But looking to the overall mood today, things are looking fairly tentative. And that

Prior 46.4 The downturn in UK construction is seen easing a little, with house building showing some resilience. However, commercial work continues to decline and this time at its quickest pace since May 2020. So, that remains a drag. The overall sector is still in a challenging spot but at least there are some green

China will allow an additional 60 billion yuan (US$8.3 billion) from long-term insurance funds to be invested in equities as part of an expanded pilot program aimed at deepening capital market participation. The move is part of Beijing’s broader efforts to shore up financial stability and revive confidence across key sectors. Li Yunze, head of

USDCHF continues to trade within a defined range, with price action over the past 11 days capped by a ceiling near 0.8265–0.8277. Momentum above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages has repeatedly faded, highlighting persistent selling pressure. Since mid-late April, price action has carved out a sideways range, with the support zone between 0.8195 and

Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.2% Looking at the breakdown, there was a decrease in volume of retail trade for food, drinks, tobacco (-0.1%) and non-food products (-0.1%). That is slightly offset by an increase for automotive fuel (+0.4%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bessent is out saying: Believes the debt to GDP ratio will drop next year. The key word is “believes”. The Trump administration has been focused on cutting costs and reducing the government deficits. DOGE efforts which were at first targeting $2T of cuts has been slashed to $1T and lower. As of May 2025, the

Headlines: China says meeting with the US on trade is at the US’ request China reaffirms that its position on talks has not changed EU reportedly eyes tariffs on Boeing if trade talks with US go south What are the interest rate expectations for the major central banks? Reminder: China president Xi to visit Moscow

Merz confirmed in second parliamentary vote Trump and Carney talk to the press: We will possibly start to renegotiate USMCA USD/CAD takes the first Trump-Carney meeting in stride. Discussions were ‘constructive’ Trump: The only question for Carney is why the US is subsidizing Canada US March international trade balance -140.5B vs -137.0B expected US treasury

XM, an industry-leading broker, announced a year-long celebration to mark 15 years of award-winning trading, with exclusive promotions, events, and product releases, for their existing and new clients. “At XM, our mission has always been to empower traders by delivering a seamless and rewarding trading experience,” said Menelaos Menelaou, Co-CEO at XM. “Reaching this 15-year

The major European indices are shutting down for the day, and closing lower for the day. A snapshot of the markets currently shows: German DAX, -0.57%. Frances CAC, -0.98% UK’s FTSE 100, -0.53% Spain’s Ibex, -0.37% Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.46%. The Euro Stoxx index is down -0.50%. As European traders had for the exits, US

The economic calendar in the North American session is void of economic releases. The only release will be by the EE IA with their weekly while inventory data. The expectations are for: Crude oil -0.833M Gasoline -1.6000M Distilates -1.271M The private data released late yesterday showed: As for the Fed, the decision will be announced

The major US indices are trading higher in early US trading. The gains were helped by the US/China meeting news, but the levels are lower than premarket levels implied by the futures. The Dow industrial average is leading the way with a gain of 0.56%. The S&P index is up 0.47% and the NASDAQ index

More from People’s Bank of China Governor Pan: will lower interest rates on structural policy tools by 25 bps will guide banks in reducing deposit rates Earlier: PBOC Governor Pan says world is full of uncertainties – cuts rates PBOC rate cuts: 7-day RR to 1.4% (from 1.5%), LPR 10bp cut also, RRR 50 bp

VP Vance is speaking and says: Security posture of last 20 years is not adequate for the next 20 years We think Russians are asking for too much Would like Russians and Ukrainians to agree to guidelines for talking to each other. There is a big gulf between where Ukrainians and Russians are. Probably impossible

The WSJ is reporting that tariffs could lift laptop and phone prices by some 30% according to some forecasts. I don’t know…. Rising prices by 30% is still a threat to cost-push inflationinfluences. The line that inflation from tariffs will only be a one time price increase may not be that. This article was written

US’ Bessent and Greer to meet with China rep on Economic Matters this week Bessent with juicy China trade talk details – we’ll decide what we are going to talk about China’ s Ministry of Commerce says is has “decided to agree to engage with the US” China confirms Vice Premier He Lifeng to talk

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) head: To support Central Huijin to bolster markets. Central Huijin, PBOC acting as quasi-stabilization fund. China will roll out reform measures for tech boards. Ample preparations made for dealing with external shocks. Will forcefully promote long-term capital into the stock market. Confident to achieve stable development of China’s stock market.

Reserve Bank of NZ Financial Stability Report: Risks to the financial system have increased over the past six months While global economic environment has become more volatile, our financial institutions are in a strong position to support the economy Banks have strong capital and liquidity buffers in place to maintain credit flows even if conditions

Reports on intense shelling between Indian and Pakistani troops. Update: India says all air defence units have been activated all along the India-Pakistan border Follows this: India Launches Missile Strikes on Alleged Terror Camps in Pakistan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The news is here: “Sources” say US’ Bessent and Greer to meet with China rep on Economic Matters this week The details are in the post. A meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Trade Representative Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng. AUD likes news that could ease trade tensions and give China a boost:

Crude oil inventories -2.032 million versus estimate -0.833 million. The private API data released late yesterday showed a draw of -4.49 million Gasoline inventories build of +0.188 million versus drawdown of -1.600 million estimate. Distillates inventories draw of-1.107 million versus estimate of -1.271 million. Below are the weekly API inventory data released late yesterday: This

China, Russia have always firmly supported each other Should jointly resist any attempt to disrupt the friendship and mutual trust China, Russia are both major powers with important influence in maintaining global strategic stability No matter how the situation in Taiwan changes, China will eventually ‘reunify’ with Taiwan Well, speak of the devil. Reminder: China

In the European session, we have a few low tier releases and the Eurozone Retail Sales report, but it’s unlikely to see the market reacting to the data given that it won’t change anything in terms of expectations. In the American session, we’ll have the main event of the day, which is the FOMC Policy

This adds to the slew of rate cuts and other measures from earlier. In case you missed it, Eamonn’s got you covered here. The relending facility is one that is mainly used to bolster the stock market, allowing for low-cost funding for specific purposes such as share buybacks and shareholding increases by firms. This article

The news is out already: “Sources” say US’ Bessent and Greer to meet with China rep on Economic Matters this week Australian dollar higher on talk of Bessent/Greer/ China Vice Premier He Lifeng meeting An official statement out of China now confirms the meeting: China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9–12

China’s Ministry of Commerce: China has carefully evaluated the information provided by the United States. After fully considering global expectations, China’s interests, and the appeals of the U.S. industry and consumers, China has decided to agree to engage with the United States. These guys sound, to use an Australian term, a bit up themselves. Whatever,

Fujifilm to build a semiconductor materials facility in India to cater to the growing Indian semiconductor industry, with the goal of tapping into a supply chain that is shifting away from China. the semiconductor materials factory in India is to supply a chip project backed by the country’s government the Japanese company will acquire land

Time is ticking, but the tariff war remains unclear with Donald Trump suddenly declaring that he does not plan to talk to Xi Jinping this week, and adding that China is “stealing” from the U.S. In short, there is still no trade deal in sight between the two world powers, which is not good news

US Treasury Sec Bessent is speaking on Capitol Hill in front of the US House financial services committee US is looking to expand leadership in IMF/World Bank as IMF SDR process should serve US interests IMF should not help large, well-financed countries through SDR allocations US should have a red light or greenlight rules for

As the Nomination Round for the online trading and fintech industry’s most credible awards – UF AWARDS Global 2025 – is now open, excitement is reaching all-time highs. Some of the biggest names in fintech and FX are vying for global recognition. Every nomination counts. If you haven’t yet nominated your favourite and most deserving

Gold Futures Analysis – May 7, 2025 What Is Gold About to Do Ahead of (or After) the Federal Reserve Decision? Current Price: $3,397.5 Key Focus: Tight-range activity near $3,400 as markets await the Fed’s interest rate announcement Overview: Gold Futures at a Crossroads Gold futures are stabilizing near $3,397 as traders brace for today’s

China securities regulator head: Says US tariffs will have bigger impact on A-share listed companies with bigger share of exports to US Will help a-share listed companies affected by tariffs to cope with difficulties Says will support mergers and acquisitions among listed companies Earlier: PBOC Governor Pan says world is full of uncertainties – cuts

Bessent will meet with China’s vice premier in Switzerland to break the ice on trade talks. Reading these comments from Bessent you get the sense he is trying to lower our expectations. I don’t think that’s necessary. Anyone with half a brain knows this upcoming talk fest will achieve very, very little. Its just a

The euro had a great performance year to date mainly due to the increased German fiscal spending expectations and Trump’s tariffs. In the last four weeks though, the EURUSD pair hasn’t done much due to the lack of key developments on the trade and interest rates front. The ECB continues to cut rates amid economic

Trump is expected to announce during his upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia that the United States will begin referring to the Persian Gulf as the “Arabian Gulf” or “Gulf of Arabia,” according to two U.S. officials who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The move aligns with longstanding demands from Arab nations

Bloomberg is reporting that: EU is to announce provisional list of tariffs against the US on Thursday EU tariffs to be enforced if talks with the US fail The headlines mirror an earlier report that indicated the EU is reportedly preparing a list of roughly €100 billion in annual U.S. imports—including Boeing aircraft—that could face

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD came under pressure again this week as some disappointing headlines on the tariffs front hit the sentiment. The de-escalation continues though and tonight we got the news that the US and Chinese representatives will meet in Switzerland in the coming days to start engaging in discussions. Today, we also have the

The USD is higher vs the 3 major currency pairs to start the US session (by differing amounts of course). Overnight, it was announced that the US and China would meet in Switzerland to break the ice on trade. It is a step in the right direction but as many have stressed, the negotiations with

At EBC Financial Group, we see firsthand how rapidly evolving markets test the resolve and skill of traders. Week 9 of EBC’s Million Dollar Trading Challenge II was a vivid example: gold and forex pairs swung sharply, leaderboards shifted overnight, and traders faced a landscape where yesterday’s strategies no longer guaranteed tomorrow’s results. In such

It shouldn’t be surprising that as the stock market rebounded on positive expectations for trade deals, so did Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is driven by the same macro factors that influence the stock market. The market is now in a bit of a consolidation as we await the next key catalyst which will likely be the

We have always been open to dialogue with the US We will safeguard our interests in talks with the US Egos aside, it is still a positive development no matter who decided to take the first step to engage. The question though is, will it eventually lead to anything? As much as this first step

Prior 40.3 The downturn in Germany’s construction sector is continuing to ease, with improvements seen across all sectors at least. The pace of declines in overall activity and new orders were much slower, so that’s at least a positive takeaway despite the continued struggle. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -€7.87 billion; revised to -€7.70 billion The French trade deficit narrowed in March as exports grew by 5.6% on the month while imports only grew by 2.3% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.2% French CAC 40 futures flat UK FTSE futures -0.1% The more enthusiastic news involving US and China is being contained as we look towards the start of European trading at least. S&P 500 futures have also halved gains to be up just 0.5% currently. Meanwhile, the dollar has also pared the

Ethereum Futures (Micro ETH – MET) Analysis for May 7, 2025 Ethereum futures have been consolidating within a clearly defined range over the past few days, bounded by key price levels established earlier in the month. Since May 1 and May 2, we’ve seen Ethereum trade predominantly between the lower boundary set around $1780 and

We had a good run in the S&P 500 as the market continued to rally on de-escalation expectations. There’s an old adage saying that “bull markets climb a wall of worry” and that’s exactly what happened in the last weeks. We went pretty quickly from strong pessimism to optimism and the positioning got a bit

Prior 0.0% There were increases across the board with orders for capital goods (+3.7%), intermediate goods (+2.5%), and consumer goods (+8.7%) all seen higher on the month. Even if you strip out large orders, new orders were 3.2% higher compared to February. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s no doubt a symbolic show of support for Putin with Xi set to also attend a parade on Friday, one that commemorates the 80th anniversary of the World War II victory over Germany by Russia and its allies. The solidarity on the military front will also strike back home, with Taiwan and Vietnam in

The latest data shows that China’s gold reserves at the end of April were at 73.77 million ounces, up from 73.70 million ounces at the end of March. In value terms, the reserves at the end of April amount to $243.59 billion compared to $229.59 billion at the end of March. It’s the sixth consecutive

News from Tuesday, US time, ICYMI: Trade negotiations between the United States and the United Kingdom are moving forward, with progress reported on reducing tariff quotas for steel and automobiles. However, uncertainty remains over when a final agreement will be reached. Conflicting signals from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have clouded the outlook.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Back in December last year, we already saw how Beijing opted for the Chinese yuan as its first line of defense in the trade war against the US. But since then, they’ve also been taking other measures in safeguarding its interests. One of the more common trade practices to circumvent tariffs has been to resort

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As things stand, trade headlines remain the biggest driver of price action and we got a taste of that earlier with some positive news on US-China talks. That is keeping the risk mood underpinned with the dollar also catching a slight bid across

The Wall Street Journal is gated, key points of the article: The U.S. is increasing intelligence efforts in Greenland as President Trump has expressed interest in the island. Intelligence agencies are to identify Greenland and Denmark residents who support U.S. objectives. Trump has said he wants to take over Greenland for security purposes. “Step Up

China economy briefing with People’s Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Financial Regulatory Authority. PBOC Governor Pan says world is full or uncertainties China financial system remains robust despite shocks yuan rebounds against dollar after depreciation will cut policy rate by 10bp will cut RRR by 50bp 7-day RR to be cut to

January – March employment data from New Zealand Unemployment Rate 5.1% expected 5.3%, prior 5.1% Employment Change +0.1% q/q expected +0.1%, prior –0.1% Employment Change -0.7% y/y expected –0.5%, prior –1.1% Participation Rate 70.8% expected 71.0%, prior 71.0% Private Wages excluding overtime +0.4% q/q expected +0.5%, prior +0.6% Private wages including overtime +0.4% q/q expected

Reuters with the news item. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is coming up at 9am China time: ICYMI – China press conference Wednesday – PBOC, securities regulator, financial regulator 0100 GMT and 2100 US Eastern time (Tuesday evening) A PBOC representative was expected, but I’m surprised it’s the chief. I’ll have pertinent headlines if and as they come. Pan Gongsheng is People’s Bank of

The reports say that Bessent will travel to Swizertland on May 8 will meet with the Swiss President while there he will meet with ‘the lead representative on economic matters from China’ ie to meet with China Vice Premier He Lifeng The USD is gaining on this. US equity index futures reopened for evening trade

Via twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.5mn barrels Distillates -2.7mn bbls Gasoline -1.5 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

India has confirmed carrying out missile strikes on what it described as terrorist camps across the border in Pakistan, including areas in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. According to the Indian government, the operation targeted nine sites and was executed with “considerable restraint” in both target selection and method. Pakistani security officials reported that missiles were

All of these are in the posts earlier, but collating them here in brief. Equity Market Stabilisation: Central Huijin, along with the PBOC, will step in as a quasi-stabilisation fund to help maintain stock market confidence. An additional 60 billion yuan (US$8.3 billion) from long-term insurance funds will be channelled into equities under an expanded

US/China trade talks to begin: US’ Bessent and Greer to meet with China rep on Economic Matters this week Bessent with juicy China trade talk details – we’ll decide what we are going to talk about China’ s Ministry of Commerce says is has “decided to agree to engage with the US” China confirms Vice

The cut announcement from PBOC Governor Pan have lent a bid to the China proxy trade, AUD/USD above 0.6510, for example. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold wobbled near its high on the news of India’s attack on terrorist sites in Pakistan: India Launches Missile Strikes on Alleged Terror Camps in Pakistan But it dropped hard after the US/China trade talks news broker: “Sources” say US’ Bessent and Greer to meet with China rep on Economic Matters this week Its down

This info via a CNBC report: 58 wallets have made over $10 million each from President Donald Trump’s meme coin, totaling $1.1 billion in profits, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said. 764,000 wallets of mostly small holders have lost money on $TRUMP, according to the firm. Good work from the snake oil salesman. This article was

On Tuesday, New Hampshire governor Ayotte igned the state’s crypto reserve bill into law. New Hampshire is the first US state to allow its government to invest in crypto will allow the state’s treasury to use funds to invest in cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of more than $500 billion, eliminating many tokens and memecoins

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan announced this cut, and others, earlier: PBOC Governor Pan says world is full of uncertainties – cuts rates PBOC rate cuts: 7-day RR to 1.4% (from 1.5%), LPR 10bp cut also, RRR 50 bp cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China to cut Standing Lending Facility rate by 10bp from May 8 The RRR cut referred to earlier will be cut from May 15 Earlier: PBOC Governor Pan says world is full of uncertainties – cuts rates PBOC rate cuts: 7-day RR to 1.4% (from 1.5%), LPR 10bp cut also, RRR 50

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan Jibun / S&P Global Services PMI for April 52.4 flash was 52.2, prior 50.0 Composite PMI 51.2 prior 51.1 Annabel Fiddes, Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, comments in the report on the latest Japan PMI survey: Japan’s private sector returned to expansion in April, driven solely by a rebound in services activity.

The AUDUSD found support today at 0.6437, holding within a key swing area between 0.6427 and 0.6442. The rebound during the early U.S. session lifted the pair back above its 200-day moving average at 0.64608. The price is now testing the psychologically important and natural resistance target at the 0.6500 level, with additional resistance at

Carney didn’t get “Zelensky’d”. That bar for today’s meeting between the North American leaders was to avoid a meltdown and as the picture above shows, it went well enough. The Canadian PM is out with a readout now and said discussions were ‘constructive’ and ‘wide ranging’ and agreed to discuss more and have a meeting

ForexLive had the news of the China government notice issued Tuesday post earlier. A reminder or an ICYMI: Officials from the People’s Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will speak at 9 am local time about “a financial policy package to stabilize market and expectations” 9 am

The major US indices remain in negative territory for the second consecutive day. The S&P snapped its nine day win streak yesterday. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average -296.55 points or -0.72% at 40922.98. S&P index -25.78 points or -0.46% at 5624.64. NASDAQ index -92.57 points or -0.52% at 17752.38. Both

The employment data from New Zealand is for the January – March quarter. The unemployment rate is expected to have risen. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on a likely continued rate cut course. Prior to the data the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its Financial Stabilty Report – there will be

Crude oil futures are settling at $59.09. That’s up $1.96 or 3.43%. On the hourly chart, today’s rally stalled at $59.79—just shy of the falling 200-hour moving average at $60.01 and the 50% retracement of the April 23 to May 4 decline at $60.08. A break above both those levels is needed to strengthen the

Chris Lunday, a reporter for Politico, is saying that the Bundestag will hold a second Merz vote today at 15:15 Berlin time. He adds “all factions have been summoned and full attendence is expected. This is the make or break moment for Merz.” Link to his post on X here This article was written by

The FT reports that the US and UK are close to a trade agreement that would lower UK quotas on cars and steel. The agreement would include lower-tariff quotas for UK steel and car exports to the US The UK is hoping to secure reductions in the sector specific 25% tariffs that Trump has levied

Where are the US red lines on trade? This is the big question that needs an answer for me to have any kind of conviction in the macro outlook. Yesterday Kyodo reported this: U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japan’s top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa in their meeting in Washington last week that the

The US continues to tease a big trade deal and it’s likely with India, but after saying on Thursday that it was coming later that day, the deal still hasn’t been struck. Meanwhile, the UK just appears to have concluded negotiations with India at the same time. India Prime Minister Modi said they have successfully

China will hold press conference on Wednesday on financial policy package EU’s Sefcovic: EU doesn’t feel weak or under pressure to accept unfair deal with the US Taiwan central bank says will visit FX custodian banks to carry out inspections Germany’s AfD backs new vote for chancellor on Wednesday Eurozone March PPI -1.6% vs -1.6%

The GDPNow growht estimate for the Q2 rose to 2.2% from 1.1% prior. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.2 percent on May 6, up from 1.1 percent on May 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau

Oil has closed the opening gap for the week and is now up $2.01 to $59.13. It’s an unlikely rebound after OPEC+ added barrels once again on the weekend and a leak said they will continue to do so until Kazakhstan and Iraq meet their pledges to pay back overproduction. I think there is an

High yield 4.342% WI yield before the auction 4.354% Tail -1.2 basis points vs six-month average of 0.7 basis points Bid to cover 2.60x versus the six-month average of 2.59X Direct 19.88% vs the six-month average of 16.8% Indirects 71.2% vs six-month average of 70.0% Dealers 8.93% versus the six-month average of 13.2% AUCTION GRADE:

Sector Overview The tech sector is navigating choppy waters today, with major players showing mixed results. Microsoft (MSFT) slipped slightly at -0.34%, while Nvidia (NVDA), a significant semiconductor stock, declined by 1.01%. The semiconductor segment overall continues to struggle, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropping 1.64%. The technology sector’s volatility suggests cautious investor sentiment towards

The gold buyers are back in a big way following the holiday in China and other parts of Asia. Gold surged yesterday and traced out an outside bullish reversal. That pattern extended today in a powerful signal for gold buyers. If we close here it will be the second-best closing level ever and just $10

Canada chose a talented person Oval office improved with the help of gold ; ) Houthis don’t want to fight anymore We will stop bombing We will discuss Ukraine We will have a very big announcement before middle east trip Announcement will be made Thursday, Friday or Monday before we leave. USMCA is still very

Today we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low tier data releases. In the European session, we get the final PMI readings for the UK and Eurozone economy, while in the American session we don’t have anything excepts the 10 year auction for those following it. The main event will be

When Trump was elected, one of the most-predictable outcomes was a resumption of steel and aluminum tariffs. This chart shows imports of ‘finished metal shapes’, which is the official way of saying ‘things made out of metal’. That points to a $78 billion excess build-up in US metals imports that will slowly be exhausted. How

Bloomber is reporting the news. This is likely an algo driven reaction to the headline but it’s not something new. The EU has been threatening retaliation in case trade negotiations were to fail for a long time. I wouldn’t be surprised if the moves get faded shortly. Click here for the full article This article

Final Services PMI 49.0 vs 48.9 preliminary Prior 52.5 Final Composite PMI 48.5 vs 48.2 preliminary Prior 51.5 Key findings: Renewed downturn in new work weighs on service sector output Fastest decline in export sales since February 2021 Business activity expectations slump to a two-and- a-half year low Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P

USD/CAD has been in a 150-pip range since April 15 but it’s near the low end of that range at the moment. I expect the loonie to move on the tone and comments from today’s Trump-Carney meeting but at the end of the day, it’s just one meeting in what will be a long relationship

Prior was -122.7B Goods trade balance -163.17B vs -161.9B prior Prior goods trade balance was -147.85B This is the largest US trade deficit on record but it should improve in April/May once the front-run of tariffs is done. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is showing signs of bullish revival after holding firm against a key support zone. Over the past several trading days, the pair repeatedly tested the 1.3259–1.32735 region (marked with red numbered circles on the chart) and held, forming a solid floor Today’s price action shows a decisive rebound above the 100-bar moving average

The EURUSD is trading above its 200-hour moving average (currently at 1.1347) for the third consecutive day. In the previous two attempts, the pair posted modest gains before retreating, so a sustained move above this level would be a more convincing bullish signal from a technical standpoint. If the pair fails to hold above the

Trump says he’ll announce pharmaceutical tariffs over the next two weeks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD continues to grind lower, posting a series of lower lows over the last 13 days, but downside momentum remains limited. The pair has been largely contained within a broad consolidation range, with the lower boundary near 1.3759 and resistance capped near 1.3904. More recent attempts by buyers to push the price above the

The NZDUSD is pushing toward the top of a key swing area, testing resistance near 0.6000, which sits just below the 2024 high. This marks the 11th test of this zone, and the pair continues to find sellers on approaches, keeping the ceiling well-defined. Nevertheless, a break above would target the high from 2025 at

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.1% UK stocks will have to balance out the mood after the long weekend but overall risk sentiment is a little on the softer side today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.35% following the drop yesterday, with investors still waiting on more concrete trade developments to work with.

The USD is moving lower vs. the major currencies. The FOMC rate decision is still one day away where they market traders will be interested in what the Fed has to say about future policy action. For today what technical levels are being broken from the USD selling? EURUSD: Sellers emerged early in the Asian

National Australia Bank (NAB) has revised its year-end AUD/USD forecast higher to 0.70, citing a prolonged bear market for the US dollar. The bank’s FX strategy team expects the pair to stabilise around 0.65 through mid-year, before gradually rising toward 0.67 by December. NAB highlighted the shifting interest rate differential between Australia and the United

This isn’t a promising start but it’s the same thing he’s said forever. We don’t need Canada’s cars, energy or lumber I look forward to meeting Carney Carney is due to arrive at the White House any minute. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices came under modest selling pressure today, but buyers stepped in near key technical support, helping to stabilize the declines. S&P 500 Index The index dipped to an intraday low of 5586.04, just above the 50-hour moving average at 5583.09 The MA held as support, keeping the short-term bullish

The AUDUSD continues to exhibit a bullish bias after climbing to its highest level since early December 2024. Buyers have kept the pair supported above the key swing area between 0.6429 and 0.6444 as well as the 100-hour moving average, currently near 0.6430. That swing area, which previously acted as strong resistance (see green numbered

Prior 54.7 Composite PMI Prior 54.0 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Germany’s AfD backs new vote for chancellor on Wednesday after Merz failed to win the majority today. AfD is the second biggest party in the Bundestag lower house. Earlier: Merz falls short of majority needed to become German chancellor in first voting round German parliament reportedly won’t be going ahead with another chancellor vote today

Beyonce is on tour but no one seems to care. The tickets are going for $25 and there are plenty of empty seats. At some point, people don’t want to see the same old song and dance anymore. That’s increasingly the case with Trump’s trade team talking up trade deals that never seem to materialize.

The USDCHF has been trading in a sideways range for the past 10 days, confined within a Red Box defined by support at 0.8195 and resistance at 0.8333. This consolidation reflects market indecision, as traders await a breakout for directional clues. The latest price action shows the pair testing the 100- and 200-hour moving averages,

Proposed 0 for 0 tariffs on industrial goods. Accelerating trade talks with India among others. Another €170B US-exports may be impacted by tariffs. Ready to use all available tools in trade defence. There’s nothing new here as we’ve been aware of the 0 for 0 offer for weeks. The problem is that we still haven’t

Fundamental Overview Gold erased last week’s losses in just a couple of days. It’s unclear what was the catalyst though. I can cite the usual “dollar weakness, safe haven demand” reasons but those don’t help with market timing. The most plausible explanation could be the recent volatility in some Asian currencies which would explain the

Prior was 51.3 Non-seasonally adjusted 52.3 vs 55.6 prior This is a poor economic indicator but there is no doubt that the Canadian economy is feeling the tariff war, among other things. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude Oil Futures Analysis for Today: Sellers Taking Control Bearish Momentum IntensifiesCrude oil futures are showing increased bearish momentum today after clear rejection at yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH) of 58.86. Order flow data indicates significant weakening of buyer strength and increasing seller pressure, particularly noted by negative delta shifts in recent trading sessions. Key

Goldman Sachs expects USD/CNY to decline further, citing growing optimism around U.S.-China trade talks shift from short to long CNY positions The move lower could be swift and event-driven in the near term, while the PBOC may guide a more gradual adjustment over time. — The People’s Bank of China will welcome back yuan strength.

China and EU should oppose unilateral bullying. Ready to work with EU leaders to expand mutual openness, properly handle frictions and differences. Calls for China, EU to safeguard fairness and justice. Stands ready to work with European Council, European commission to deepen strategic communication, enhance understanding and mutual trust. These are not new comments. We’ve

The problem with a secret ballot is that it is as the name implies, a secret. That means as things stand, Merz wouldn’t even know who he has to talk to in order to turn the votes around unless those who opposed owns up to it. And let’s face it, that never happens in politics.

Prior -$1.52B Trade Balance for March C$-0.51B vs C$-1.56B est. Exports C$69.90 billion versus C$70.04B last month Imports C$70.40 billion versus C$71.44B last month The modest decline is still a drag on the Canadian growth, but it was still better than expectations and something closer to 0 is better for US/Canada relations. PM Carney will

The State Council Information Office is reporting that Chinese officials including the PBoC will hold a press conference tomorrow on financial policy package to stabilise market and expectations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The German political drama of the day is over as Merz was confirmed as Chancellor in the second anonymous vote. His coalition held a 12-seat majority in the first vote but a dozen parliamentarians decided to cast protest votes before falling in line. The euro touched the highs of the day but it was fleeting

We feel the market has returned to a more stable situation today Expectations of the Taiwanese dollar appreciating have mostly gone USD/TWD has been more well behaved today after all the warnings since yesterday. But when you have officials put in place and scrutinising every move, that sort of helps I guess. This calls for

Mentions of “recession” on S&P 500 earnings calls have surged to their highest level since 2023, according to company transcripts tracked by analysts. The spike in recession rhetoric comes despite generally solid earnings and resilient consumer data, highlighting mounting corporate unease over the broader macro backdrop. Executives are increasingly citing risks tied to inflation, higher-for-longer

EU doesn’t feel weak or under pressure to accept unfair deal with the US. The US tariffs are unfair. Everyone wants to accelerate free trade agreements with EU. We also need to look at what we can do better inside the single market. As a reminder, Sefkovic indicated last week that the EU would not

No one likes negative rates But if we have to, we are prepared to do it again We expected Swiss inflation to come down And there we go. From yesterday: A return to negative rates looks to be a given now for the SNB This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is broadly higher against Asian FX despite the People’s Bank of China setting USD/CNY at its strongest (for the CNY) since April 7. USD/JPY has added to its earlier gains: I posted earlier: Hong Kong central bank intervenes in the Hong Kong dollar And last week conveyed the analysis of Goldman Sachs

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX +0.3% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% It’s a slower start to proceedings as broader markets are mainly waiting on further trade developments for the most part. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% after the overnight drop but again as a reminder, it

Timiraos argues that the chaotic implementation of President Trump’s tariff policy is creating a difficult dilemma for the Federal Reserve: either risk a recession or grapple with stagflation. This policy bind will be a central focus at the Fed’s upcoming two-day meeting, where officials are expected to maintain their cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

Vitesse Energy Inc is a US independent energy company: engaged in the acquisition, development, and production of non-operated oil and natural gas properties in the United States that are generally operated by oil companies and are in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana The company also have properties in the Central Rockies, including

There is just one to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1325 level. The expiries match up with the 100-hour moving average, which alongside the 200-hour moving average at 1.1347 might help to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead.

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices never got out of negative territory. The S&P snapped its nine-day win streak. The Dow industrial average trade above and below unchanged but is closing lower on the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average fell

Prior 2.8% The Swiss jobless rate holds steady with the number of registered unemployed persons falling slightly in April to 130,101 – down from 132,569 in March. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Services PMI 52.9 vs. 51.5 expected Prior 52.0 Composite PMI 52.1 vs. 50.5 prior. Key findings: Output and new orders up at sharper rates in April Cost pressures at their lowest in 2025 so far Business confidence drops to weakest level in four-and-a-half years Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia,

EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.13 expected Revenue: $884 million vs. $861 million expected Q2 Guidance: $934–$938 million vs. $898 million expected FY 2025 Revenue Guidance: $3.89–$3.90 billion vs. $3.75 billion expected Shares of Palantir are trading down -1.50% in after-hours trading Meanwhile, Ford Motor came in with EPS of $0.14 versus unchanged expected. Revenues came in

U.S. Representative Bill Foster, a Democrat from Illinois, once worked as a particle physicist. He plans to introduce legislation in coming weeks to verify the location of artificial-intelligence chips like those made by Nvidia (NVDA) after they are sold. The aim is to address reports of widespread smuggling of Nvidia’s chips into China in violation

Goldman Sachs on gold: reiterated its structural bullish gold view base case price of $3,700 an ounce by year-end 2025 but in the event of a recession, the acceleration in ETF inflows could drive the gold price to $3,880 GS say in the case of extreme risk scenarios – such as heightened concerns over Federal

Prior +0.2% PPI +1.9% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +3.0% The drop here owes largely to a decline in prices for energy (-5.8%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually up 0.1% on the month. There were increases in prices for capital goods (+0.1%), durable consumer goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.5%).

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Final Services PMI 49.0 vs. 48.8 preliminary Prior 50.9 Final Composite PMI 50.1 vs. 49.7 preliminary Prior 51.3 Key findings: Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 14-month low. Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 4-month low. Optimism towards year-ahead outlook wanes. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist

It’s been a nice day for DAX traders as political volatility provided some nice opportunities. Below you can see the 5 minute chart of the DAX where I marked the two main headlines that triggered the biggest moves. I thought this was a great example for new traders on being open minded and nimble when

Well, that didn’t go according to plan. The expectation was that Merz would’ve been elected upon the first round of voting and then the Bundestag session will be adjourned as he travels to meet with the German president to formalise his appointment. Now, all of that is put on hold. He needed 316 votes to

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Swiss franc has really appreciated a lot We have said we are ready to intervene in the FX market as necessary After the latest inflation numbers here, the pressure is on for the SNB to go big. 50 bps rate cut incoming next? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Offshore Account Security: Frequently Asked Questions Why is transparency important in offshore accounts? Transparency is essential because it allows traders to fully understand where their account is regulated, how their funds are handled, and what protections are in place. At EBC, we clearly inform clients about the regulatory jurisdiction of each account, whether it is

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick spoke on Fox Business: Trade with Canada is really complex Doesn’t see how a Trump-Carney meeting works out perfectly Trade deal with Canada is possible, its really complex Lutnick laying the foundation for no trade deal announcement with Canada. Kudos to him, a bit of honesty instead of stringing everyone along

China Caixin Services PMI for April 2025: Services PMI 50.7, slowest since September 2024 expected 51.7, prior 51.9 Composite 51.1 prior 51.8 Commentary/analysis, summarised from the report: Growth in business activity and new orders slowed, with the latter rising at its weakest pace since December 2022. Employment contracted for the second month, as firms cut

Prior 51.0 Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.1 prelim Prior 50.9 The reading reaffirms stagnation in the euro area economy to start Q2, with the services sector experiencing a stall. Demand conditions continue to suffer and that’s not a good look amid a more challenging economic backdrop in the months ahead. The good news at least

Hong Kong’s shipping sector is reeling from the fallout of the intensifying U.S.-China trade war, with 41% of container capacity to North America’s west coast scrapped for mid-May. The surge in tariffs and disruption to global supply chains are delivering a heavy blow to the city’s re-export-driven economy. • 41% of Hong Kong’s container shipments

Prior 47.9 Composite PMI 47.8 vs 47.3 prelim Prior 48.0 The slight revision higher doesn’t take away from the fact that French business activity has now contracted for eight straight months. Demand conditions remain subdued and that’s troubling amid a more challenging outlook in the months ahead. HCOB notes that: “April marked another month of

Coinbase with the mic drop: Every day, the Fed prints an average of $465 million. That’s 26,000 shipping containers a year, created out of thin air. Maybe that’s why the dollar loses value over time. And, there’s more: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian March 2025 Building Permits -8.8% m/m expected -0.6%, prior -0.3% For the y/y +13.4% prior +25.7% Also out were data for Australian Household Spending in March: -0.3% m/m, its slowest in 6 months +0.2% expected and +0.2% prior +3.5% y/y vs. expected 3.9%, prior 3.3% AUD/USD little changed, circa 0.6450 This article was written

It was supposed to be a straightforward appointment for Friedrich Merz to be German chancellor today. But when push comes to shove, it turned out to be anything but that. It’s a big and embarrassing setback for Merz and his coalition, who by the way commands 328 votes in the Bundestag, yet he only managed

OpenAI has abandoned a plan to convert to a for-profit company, according to the WSJ. OpenAI is going to be an interesting case, as there is a fair argument it could one day be the most-valuable company in the world. Yet now it’s going to remain a non-profit and seems it’s stuck that way. Now

China says 314 million domestic trips made during May holiday, +6.4% y/y domestic tourism spending up 8% year on year (credit card data.) A solid jump more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Taiwan dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar after Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-Long sought to calm markets following a sharp two-day rally in the local currency. Yang urged restraint from market commentators and warned manufacturers not to be swayed by exaggerated or misleading exchange rate analyses. According to DBS strategist Philip Wee, the currency’s

U.S. lawmaker targets Nvidia chip smuggling to China with new bill Taiwan dollar has dropped some of its gains today after Friday and Monday’s surge 41% of Hong Kong’s container shipments to North America cancelled for the week of May 12 Coinbase slams the Federal Reserve in its new TV ad for Bitcoin FOMC preview

It has been a bit of a recurring theme in the past few weeks, as noted before here. And today, we are once again seeing gold push up after another round of bids earlier in Asia trading. On the week itself, the precious metal is finding itself in a good position as price climbs back

Data from the UK, Australia and China today. And, China is back from holidays – Chinese markets have been closed on Thursday, Friday (last week) and Monday. They reopen today The focus of the data agenda is the second of China’s Services PMIs for April. Its expected to have subsided just a little. This snapshot

The USDJPY moved lower in early U.S. trading, finding support near the bottom of a swing area between 143.57 and 143.84, while also holding just above the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at 143.44. The price has since been oscillating around the 100-hour moving average at 143.93, but remains below the 38.2% retracement of the

Hong Kong central bank intervention HKMA sells HK$ 60.543 bln into market as Hong Kong dollar hits strong end of trading range *** Since 1983, the HKD has been pegged to the U.S. dollar under a Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS), ensuring exchange rate stability and promoting investor confidence. The peg ties the HKD at

EUR, AUD, GBP. JPY, NZD, CAD, CHF … the USD is up across the majors board. Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh nows . This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS says the medium-term outlook for U.S. equities is turning more constructive, even as market volatility is expected to persist in the near term. Via a note from analysts at the firm on Monday: “[W]e believe the medium-term outlook is positive for US stocks, supported by likely tariff moderation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and structural

Lutnick gave a preview earlier, not bullish: Lutnick says a trade deal with Canada is possible, but its ‘really complex’ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump signs order to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing -White House statement Trump order directs the U.S. FDA to reduce the amount of time it takes to approve domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing plants directs the FDA to improve enforcement of active pharmaceutical ingredient source reporting by foreign drug producers and consider publicly displaying a

ANZ World Commodity Price Index for April 2025, unchanged m/m In NZD terms the index fell 1% m/m – As part of this report each month ANZ comment on shipping costs: Global shipping prices were generally down slightly in April, although exporters expect costs to ease in the coming months due to reduced global demand.

EU and France unveil €500 million incentive package to attract scientists amid U.S. funding cuts under Trump. French President Macron urged global researchers to join Europe in a rallying call for academic freedom and innovation: “We call on researchers worldwide to unite and join us … If you love freedom, come and help us stay

Major US indices close lower. S&P and NASDAQ indices never get out of negative territory OpenAI abandons plan to become a ‘for profit’ company Crude oil futures settle at $57.13 Trump says he bets Canada’s Carney wants to make a deal in Tuesday visit US treasury auctions off $58 billion of three year notes at

WTI crude oil settled lower by $1.16 to $57.13 per barrel. That’s another down day for crude but oil companies are probably feeling a sigh of relief given that OPEC+ raised production on the weekend and there was a report saying they would continue to add barrels until there was cooperation from Kazakhstan and Iraq

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Westpac CEO says the ‘Worst is behind us’ across consumer and business stress also: Finance demand for M&A pipeline is stronger than expected I’m not sure what precipitated these remarks. Oh, here we go – at the Macquarie Australia conference. — ps. WPAC are tipping a 25bp cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at

Retail investors poured a record $40 billion into equities in April, according to JP Morgan, marking the largest monthly inflow on record. The surge underscores a renewed wave of optimism among individual traders, even as institutional investors tread cautiously amid macroeconomic uncertainties and volatile rate expectations. Analysts say the buying spree was concentrated in technology

Financial Times is gated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The high water mark for the S&P index for today was -3.29 points. Getting into positive territory has been a challenge with the current price down -23 points are -0.42% at 5662.5. At session lows, the index was down -52.19 point. There is still 15 minutes to go in trading but traders seem to be

Crude oil futures are settling down $1.16 or -1.99% and $57.13. The low price today reached $55.39. That was just short of the low price from April 9 $55.15. It was the lowest close since February 10, 2021. The daily chart, the next major target below $55.15 is the 61.8% retracement of the move up

It was another good day for the US stock markets last Friday as the S&P 500 index extended the gains following the positive NFP report and managed to erase the entire drop since “Liberation Day”. The question now is how much further this rally can go. The answer revolves around the first trade deal. We

Prior +0.3% Core CPI +0.6% y/y Prior +0.9% Swiss inflation comes in lower than estimated with the headline reading touching 0% for the first time since March 2021. Meanwhile, core inflation is also seen slowing further and that will add worry for the SNB amid a stronger franc currency in the past month or so.

Morgan Stanley expects no changes at the May FOMC meeting on Wednesday, while forecasting the Bank of England to cut by 25bps on Thursday, with signs of further easing to come despite internal dissent. Key Points: FOMC (Wed): No rate change expected. Balance sheet policy also likely to remain unchanged. Focus will be on forward

Pres. Trump will make a sports announcement shortly. Axios reports: President Trump plans to announce Monday that Washington, D.C., will host the 2027 NFL Draft, likely on the National Mall. The announcement is expected to include NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and Commanders owner Josh Harris at the White House. The decision follows a recent plan

Trump plans 100% tariff on all movies produced overseas. Via his own social media app. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil Futures Analysis Today with orderFlow Intel Time of Analysis: Monday, May 5, 2025, 9:36 AM (Central European Summer Time, GMT+2) Current Order Flow Overview for Crude Oil Futures: Crude Oil futures exhibit a clear bullish momentum supported by robust buyer activity and delta strength, based on comprehensive order flow intel. Persistent positive cumulative delta

The USD is lower to kickstart the new trading day. US stocks are lower. Yields are lower as well. EURUSD: Last week, the EURUSD fell below key daily support between 1.1271 and 1.12754, but the April 15 low at 1.12657 provided a firm floor, preventing further downside. The pair rebounded, and Friday’s price action confirmed

The EURUSD attempted to break above its 200-hour moving average at 1.13510 in early U.S. trading, but—just like on Friday—buyers lacked follow-through and momentum quickly faded. The failed breakout attracted fresh selling interest, and the price has since rotated lower, falling back below both the 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages (the latter at 1.13354), shifting

The major US indices are remaining in negative territory although they are off their lowest levels and trading near their highest levels. Nevertheless the S&P index is in jeopardy of snapping it nine-day win streak. The NASDAQ index is the weakest today but only by -0.37%. Since bottoming on April 21 at 4835.04, the S&P

I strongly suspect, the tone of the meeting and comments afterwards will be market moving for the loonie. I don’t think anyone is expecting any kind of deal or short-term changes in tariff rates. Also from Trump: China wants to make a deal very badly This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says he will meet with film industry officials Says he wants to make sure industry is happy with the tariff idea This all sounds like a slow walkdown after a wild tweet late last night. I don’t think this matters at all for markets as even NFLX is barely down but it speaks to

In March this index fell to 41.2 from 46.6, which was the lowest reading since June 2020. It bounced slightly here but that’s hardly reassuring. Composite index 41.7 vs 42.0 Job losses were recorded for a fourth successive month A lack of present incoming new work meant firms were generally willing to let employees leave

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a distinct downturn in tech and energy sectors, leading to widespread volatility across the board. The technology sector, notably the consumer electronics and semiconductors segments, displays significant declines, with major players like Apple (AAPL) down by a steep 3.12% and Nvidia (NVDA) dipping 1.14%. Meanwhile, AMD bucks the

Reminder, on Thursday, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said “I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day” on a tariff deal. We’re still waiting. Bessent: Trading deals maybe as early as this week I’m highly confident that 17 trading partners excluding China have presented with very good trade proposals We

How one picture has come to define the nature of the relationship between the two. Poetic. But essentially, it does sum up the situation as we look towards the FOMC meeting this week. The Fed, staying as independent as they are, will most certainly keep interest rates unchanged. The economy is no doubt softening but

In the European session, the main highlight is the Swiss CPI which is expected at 0.2% Y/Y. The data is unlikely to change much interest rates expectations as the market is already pricing in a pretty dovish path with a return to negative rates. We will likely need a big deviation from the expected numbers

High yield 3.824% WI level at the time of the auction 3.86% Tail -0.2 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Treas Sec. Bessent is saying: Fed’s favorite inflation measure is down Market isn”;t pricing in inflation Hard data is still resilient The Fed meets on Wednesday with the expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The market is pricing in a 28% chance for a 25 basis point cut in June. This article was

The GBPUSD buyers had their opportunity to reclaim control with a move above the converged 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (at 1.33238), but momentum stalled, and the price has since rotated back lower. The failure to stay above those key MAs has shifted short-term control back to the sellers. Support continues to hold above a

Finance Magnates Africa Summit, the biggest event in Africa for the online trading industry, has found a new home in Cape Town. On the 29th & 30th of May, FMAS:25 will welcome the local and international attendees to Cape Town International Convention Centre (CTICC). As the financial hub of South Africa, Cape Town offers the

Leading CFD Broker, easyMarkets, released its Q1 2025 market recap, revealing key trends in global trading behaviours and highlighting significant developments across various sectors. · Gold, Nasdaq, and EURUSD remain the top assets for the third consecutive quarter, with gold reaching near-record highs, closing in on $3,000. · The crypto market saw a decline in