National Australia Bank (NAB) has revised its year-end AUD/USD forecast higher to 0.70, citing a prolonged bear market for the US dollar. The bank’s FX strategy team expects the pair to stabilise around 0.65 through mid-year, before gradually rising toward 0.67 by December. NAB highlighted the shifting interest rate differential between Australia and the United […]

This isn’t a promising start but it’s the same thing he’s said forever. We don’t need Canada’s cars, energy or lumber I look forward to meeting Carney Carney is due to arrive at the White House any minute. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices came under modest selling pressure today, but buyers stepped in near key technical support, helping to stabilize the declines. S&P 500 Index The index dipped to an intraday low of 5586.04, just above the 50-hour moving average at 5583.09 The MA held as support, keeping the short-term bullish

The AUDUSD continues to exhibit a bullish bias after climbing to its highest level since early December 2024. Buyers have kept the pair supported above the key swing area between 0.6429 and 0.6444 as well as the 100-hour moving average, currently near 0.6430. That swing area, which previously acted as strong resistance (see green numbered

Prior 54.7 Composite PMI Prior 54.0 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Germany’s AfD backs new vote for chancellor on Wednesday after Merz failed to win the majority today. AfD is the second biggest party in the Bundestag lower house. Earlier: Merz falls short of majority needed to become German chancellor in first voting round German parliament reportedly won’t be going ahead with another chancellor vote today

Beyonce is on tour but no one seems to care. The tickets are going for $25 and there are plenty of empty seats. At some point, people don’t want to see the same old song and dance anymore. That’s increasingly the case with Trump’s trade team talking up trade deals that never seem to materialize.

The USDCHF has been trading in a sideways range for the past 10 days, confined within a Red Box defined by support at 0.8195 and resistance at 0.8333. This consolidation reflects market indecision, as traders await a breakout for directional clues. The latest price action shows the pair testing the 100- and 200-hour moving averages,

Proposed 0 for 0 tariffs on industrial goods. Accelerating trade talks with India among others. Another €170B US-exports may be impacted by tariffs. Ready to use all available tools in trade defence. There’s nothing new here as we’ve been aware of the 0 for 0 offer for weeks. The problem is that we still haven’t

Fundamental Overview Gold erased last week’s losses in just a couple of days. It’s unclear what was the catalyst though. I can cite the usual “dollar weakness, safe haven demand” reasons but those don’t help with market timing. The most plausible explanation could be the recent volatility in some Asian currencies which would explain the

Prior was 51.3 Non-seasonally adjusted 52.3 vs 55.6 prior This is a poor economic indicator but there is no doubt that the Canadian economy is feeling the tariff war, among other things. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude Oil Futures Analysis for Today: Sellers Taking Control Bearish Momentum IntensifiesCrude oil futures are showing increased bearish momentum today after clear rejection at yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH) of 58.86. Order flow data indicates significant weakening of buyer strength and increasing seller pressure, particularly noted by negative delta shifts in recent trading sessions. Key

Goldman Sachs expects USD/CNY to decline further, citing growing optimism around U.S.-China trade talks shift from short to long CNY positions The move lower could be swift and event-driven in the near term, while the PBOC may guide a more gradual adjustment over time. — The People’s Bank of China will welcome back yuan strength.

China and EU should oppose unilateral bullying. Ready to work with EU leaders to expand mutual openness, properly handle frictions and differences. Calls for China, EU to safeguard fairness and justice. Stands ready to work with European Council, European commission to deepen strategic communication, enhance understanding and mutual trust. These are not new comments. We’ve

The problem with a secret ballot is that it is as the name implies, a secret. That means as things stand, Merz wouldn’t even know who he has to talk to in order to turn the votes around unless those who opposed owns up to it. And let’s face it, that never happens in politics.

Prior -$1.52B Trade Balance for March C$-0.51B vs C$-1.56B est. Exports C$69.90 billion versus C$70.04B last month Imports C$70.40 billion versus C$71.44B last month The modest decline is still a drag on the Canadian growth, but it was still better than expectations and something closer to 0 is better for US/Canada relations. PM Carney will

The State Council Information Office is reporting that Chinese officials including the PBoC will hold a press conference tomorrow on financial policy package to stabilise market and expectations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The German political drama of the day is over as Merz was confirmed as Chancellor in the second anonymous vote. His coalition held a 12-seat majority in the first vote but a dozen parliamentarians decided to cast protest votes before falling in line. The euro touched the highs of the day but it was fleeting

We feel the market has returned to a more stable situation today Expectations of the Taiwanese dollar appreciating have mostly gone USD/TWD has been more well behaved today after all the warnings since yesterday. But when you have officials put in place and scrutinising every move, that sort of helps I guess. This calls for

Mentions of “recession” on S&P 500 earnings calls have surged to their highest level since 2023, according to company transcripts tracked by analysts. The spike in recession rhetoric comes despite generally solid earnings and resilient consumer data, highlighting mounting corporate unease over the broader macro backdrop. Executives are increasingly citing risks tied to inflation, higher-for-longer

EU doesn’t feel weak or under pressure to accept unfair deal with the US. The US tariffs are unfair. Everyone wants to accelerate free trade agreements with EU. We also need to look at what we can do better inside the single market. As a reminder, Sefkovic indicated last week that the EU would not

No one likes negative rates But if we have to, we are prepared to do it again We expected Swiss inflation to come down And there we go. From yesterday: A return to negative rates looks to be a given now for the SNB This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is broadly higher against Asian FX despite the People’s Bank of China setting USD/CNY at its strongest (for the CNY) since April 7. USD/JPY has added to its earlier gains: I posted earlier: Hong Kong central bank intervenes in the Hong Kong dollar And last week conveyed the analysis of Goldman Sachs

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX +0.3% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% It’s a slower start to proceedings as broader markets are mainly waiting on further trade developments for the most part. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% after the overnight drop but again as a reminder, it

Timiraos argues that the chaotic implementation of President Trump’s tariff policy is creating a difficult dilemma for the Federal Reserve: either risk a recession or grapple with stagflation. This policy bind will be a central focus at the Fed’s upcoming two-day meeting, where officials are expected to maintain their cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

Vitesse Energy Inc is a US independent energy company: engaged in the acquisition, development, and production of non-operated oil and natural gas properties in the United States that are generally operated by oil companies and are in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana The company also have properties in the Central Rockies, including

There is just one to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1325 level. The expiries match up with the 100-hour moving average, which alongside the 200-hour moving average at 1.1347 might help to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead.

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices never got out of negative territory. The S&P snapped its nine-day win streak. The Dow industrial average trade above and below unchanged but is closing lower on the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average fell

Prior 2.8% The Swiss jobless rate holds steady with the number of registered unemployed persons falling slightly in April to 130,101 – down from 132,569 in March. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Services PMI 52.9 vs. 51.5 expected Prior 52.0 Composite PMI 52.1 vs. 50.5 prior. Key findings: Output and new orders up at sharper rates in April Cost pressures at their lowest in 2025 so far Business confidence drops to weakest level in four-and-a-half years Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia,

EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.13 expected Revenue: $884 million vs. $861 million expected Q2 Guidance: $934–$938 million vs. $898 million expected FY 2025 Revenue Guidance: $3.89–$3.90 billion vs. $3.75 billion expected Shares of Palantir are trading down -1.50% in after-hours trading Meanwhile, Ford Motor came in with EPS of $0.14 versus unchanged expected. Revenues came in

U.S. Representative Bill Foster, a Democrat from Illinois, once worked as a particle physicist. He plans to introduce legislation in coming weeks to verify the location of artificial-intelligence chips like those made by Nvidia (NVDA) after they are sold. The aim is to address reports of widespread smuggling of Nvidia’s chips into China in violation

Goldman Sachs on gold: reiterated its structural bullish gold view base case price of $3,700 an ounce by year-end 2025 but in the event of a recession, the acceleration in ETF inflows could drive the gold price to $3,880 GS say in the case of extreme risk scenarios – such as heightened concerns over Federal

Prior +0.2% PPI +1.9% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +3.0% The drop here owes largely to a decline in prices for energy (-5.8%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually up 0.1% on the month. There were increases in prices for capital goods (+0.1%), durable consumer goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.5%).

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Final Services PMI 49.0 vs. 48.8 preliminary Prior 50.9 Final Composite PMI 50.1 vs. 49.7 preliminary Prior 51.3 Key findings: Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 14-month low. Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 4-month low. Optimism towards year-ahead outlook wanes. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist

It’s been a nice day for DAX traders as political volatility provided some nice opportunities. Below you can see the 5 minute chart of the DAX where I marked the two main headlines that triggered the biggest moves. I thought this was a great example for new traders on being open minded and nimble when

Well, that didn’t go according to plan. The expectation was that Merz would’ve been elected upon the first round of voting and then the Bundestag session will be adjourned as he travels to meet with the German president to formalise his appointment. Now, all of that is put on hold. He needed 316 votes to

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Swiss franc has really appreciated a lot We have said we are ready to intervene in the FX market as necessary After the latest inflation numbers here, the pressure is on for the SNB to go big. 50 bps rate cut incoming next? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Offshore Account Security: Frequently Asked Questions Why is transparency important in offshore accounts? Transparency is essential because it allows traders to fully understand where their account is regulated, how their funds are handled, and what protections are in place. At EBC, we clearly inform clients about the regulatory jurisdiction of each account, whether it is

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick spoke on Fox Business: Trade with Canada is really complex Doesn’t see how a Trump-Carney meeting works out perfectly Trade deal with Canada is possible, its really complex Lutnick laying the foundation for no trade deal announcement with Canada. Kudos to him, a bit of honesty instead of stringing everyone along

China Caixin Services PMI for April 2025: Services PMI 50.7, slowest since September 2024 expected 51.7, prior 51.9 Composite 51.1 prior 51.8 Commentary/analysis, summarised from the report: Growth in business activity and new orders slowed, with the latter rising at its weakest pace since December 2022. Employment contracted for the second month, as firms cut

Prior 51.0 Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.1 prelim Prior 50.9 The reading reaffirms stagnation in the euro area economy to start Q2, with the services sector experiencing a stall. Demand conditions continue to suffer and that’s not a good look amid a more challenging economic backdrop in the months ahead. The good news at least

Hong Kong’s shipping sector is reeling from the fallout of the intensifying U.S.-China trade war, with 41% of container capacity to North America’s west coast scrapped for mid-May. The surge in tariffs and disruption to global supply chains are delivering a heavy blow to the city’s re-export-driven economy. • 41% of Hong Kong’s container shipments

Prior 47.9 Composite PMI 47.8 vs 47.3 prelim Prior 48.0 The slight revision higher doesn’t take away from the fact that French business activity has now contracted for eight straight months. Demand conditions remain subdued and that’s troubling amid a more challenging outlook in the months ahead. HCOB notes that: “April marked another month of

Coinbase with the mic drop: Every day, the Fed prints an average of $465 million. That’s 26,000 shipping containers a year, created out of thin air. Maybe that’s why the dollar loses value over time. And, there’s more: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian March 2025 Building Permits -8.8% m/m expected -0.6%, prior -0.3% For the y/y +13.4% prior +25.7% Also out were data for Australian Household Spending in March: -0.3% m/m, its slowest in 6 months +0.2% expected and +0.2% prior +3.5% y/y vs. expected 3.9%, prior 3.3% AUD/USD little changed, circa 0.6450 This article was written

It was supposed to be a straightforward appointment for Friedrich Merz to be German chancellor today. But when push comes to shove, it turned out to be anything but that. It’s a big and embarrassing setback for Merz and his coalition, who by the way commands 328 votes in the Bundestag, yet he only managed

OpenAI has abandoned a plan to convert to a for-profit company, according to the WSJ. OpenAI is going to be an interesting case, as there is a fair argument it could one day be the most-valuable company in the world. Yet now it’s going to remain a non-profit and seems it’s stuck that way. Now

China says 314 million domestic trips made during May holiday, +6.4% y/y domestic tourism spending up 8% year on year (credit card data.) A solid jump more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Taiwan dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar after Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-Long sought to calm markets following a sharp two-day rally in the local currency. Yang urged restraint from market commentators and warned manufacturers not to be swayed by exaggerated or misleading exchange rate analyses. According to DBS strategist Philip Wee, the currency’s

U.S. lawmaker targets Nvidia chip smuggling to China with new bill Taiwan dollar has dropped some of its gains today after Friday and Monday’s surge 41% of Hong Kong’s container shipments to North America cancelled for the week of May 12 Coinbase slams the Federal Reserve in its new TV ad for Bitcoin FOMC preview

It has been a bit of a recurring theme in the past few weeks, as noted before here. And today, we are once again seeing gold push up after another round of bids earlier in Asia trading. On the week itself, the precious metal is finding itself in a good position as price climbs back

Data from the UK, Australia and China today. And, China is back from holidays – Chinese markets have been closed on Thursday, Friday (last week) and Monday. They reopen today The focus of the data agenda is the second of China’s Services PMIs for April. Its expected to have subsided just a little. This snapshot

The USDJPY moved lower in early U.S. trading, finding support near the bottom of a swing area between 143.57 and 143.84, while also holding just above the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at 143.44. The price has since been oscillating around the 100-hour moving average at 143.93, but remains below the 38.2% retracement of the

Hong Kong central bank intervention HKMA sells HK$ 60.543 bln into market as Hong Kong dollar hits strong end of trading range *** Since 1983, the HKD has been pegged to the U.S. dollar under a Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS), ensuring exchange rate stability and promoting investor confidence. The peg ties the HKD at

EUR, AUD, GBP. JPY, NZD, CAD, CHF … the USD is up across the majors board. Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh nows . This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS says the medium-term outlook for U.S. equities is turning more constructive, even as market volatility is expected to persist in the near term. Via a note from analysts at the firm on Monday: “[W]e believe the medium-term outlook is positive for US stocks, supported by likely tariff moderation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and structural

Lutnick gave a preview earlier, not bullish: Lutnick says a trade deal with Canada is possible, but its ‘really complex’ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump signs order to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing -White House statement Trump order directs the U.S. FDA to reduce the amount of time it takes to approve domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing plants directs the FDA to improve enforcement of active pharmaceutical ingredient source reporting by foreign drug producers and consider publicly displaying a

ANZ World Commodity Price Index for April 2025, unchanged m/m In NZD terms the index fell 1% m/m – As part of this report each month ANZ comment on shipping costs: Global shipping prices were generally down slightly in April, although exporters expect costs to ease in the coming months due to reduced global demand.

EU and France unveil €500 million incentive package to attract scientists amid U.S. funding cuts under Trump. French President Macron urged global researchers to join Europe in a rallying call for academic freedom and innovation: “We call on researchers worldwide to unite and join us … If you love freedom, come and help us stay

Major US indices close lower. S&P and NASDAQ indices never get out of negative territory OpenAI abandons plan to become a ‘for profit’ company Crude oil futures settle at $57.13 Trump says he bets Canada’s Carney wants to make a deal in Tuesday visit US treasury auctions off $58 billion of three year notes at

WTI crude oil settled lower by $1.16 to $57.13 per barrel. That’s another down day for crude but oil companies are probably feeling a sigh of relief given that OPEC+ raised production on the weekend and there was a report saying they would continue to add barrels until there was cooperation from Kazakhstan and Iraq

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Westpac CEO says the ‘Worst is behind us’ across consumer and business stress also: Finance demand for M&A pipeline is stronger than expected I’m not sure what precipitated these remarks. Oh, here we go – at the Macquarie Australia conference. — ps. WPAC are tipping a 25bp cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at

Retail investors poured a record $40 billion into equities in April, according to JP Morgan, marking the largest monthly inflow on record. The surge underscores a renewed wave of optimism among individual traders, even as institutional investors tread cautiously amid macroeconomic uncertainties and volatile rate expectations. Analysts say the buying spree was concentrated in technology

Financial Times is gated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The high water mark for the S&P index for today was -3.29 points. Getting into positive territory has been a challenge with the current price down -23 points are -0.42% at 5662.5. At session lows, the index was down -52.19 point. There is still 15 minutes to go in trading but traders seem to be

Crude oil futures are settling down $1.16 or -1.99% and $57.13. The low price today reached $55.39. That was just short of the low price from April 9 $55.15. It was the lowest close since February 10, 2021. The daily chart, the next major target below $55.15 is the 61.8% retracement of the move up

It was another good day for the US stock markets last Friday as the S&P 500 index extended the gains following the positive NFP report and managed to erase the entire drop since “Liberation Day”. The question now is how much further this rally can go. The answer revolves around the first trade deal. We

Prior +0.3% Core CPI +0.6% y/y Prior +0.9% Swiss inflation comes in lower than estimated with the headline reading touching 0% for the first time since March 2021. Meanwhile, core inflation is also seen slowing further and that will add worry for the SNB amid a stronger franc currency in the past month or so.

Morgan Stanley expects no changes at the May FOMC meeting on Wednesday, while forecasting the Bank of England to cut by 25bps on Thursday, with signs of further easing to come despite internal dissent. Key Points: FOMC (Wed): No rate change expected. Balance sheet policy also likely to remain unchanged. Focus will be on forward

Pres. Trump will make a sports announcement shortly. Axios reports: President Trump plans to announce Monday that Washington, D.C., will host the 2027 NFL Draft, likely on the National Mall. The announcement is expected to include NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and Commanders owner Josh Harris at the White House. The decision follows a recent plan

Trump plans 100% tariff on all movies produced overseas. Via his own social media app. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil Futures Analysis Today with orderFlow Intel Time of Analysis: Monday, May 5, 2025, 9:36 AM (Central European Summer Time, GMT+2) Current Order Flow Overview for Crude Oil Futures: Crude Oil futures exhibit a clear bullish momentum supported by robust buyer activity and delta strength, based on comprehensive order flow intel. Persistent positive cumulative delta

The USD is lower to kickstart the new trading day. US stocks are lower. Yields are lower as well. EURUSD: Last week, the EURUSD fell below key daily support between 1.1271 and 1.12754, but the April 15 low at 1.12657 provided a firm floor, preventing further downside. The pair rebounded, and Friday’s price action confirmed

The EURUSD attempted to break above its 200-hour moving average at 1.13510 in early U.S. trading, but—just like on Friday—buyers lacked follow-through and momentum quickly faded. The failed breakout attracted fresh selling interest, and the price has since rotated lower, falling back below both the 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages (the latter at 1.13354), shifting

The major US indices are remaining in negative territory although they are off their lowest levels and trading near their highest levels. Nevertheless the S&P index is in jeopardy of snapping it nine-day win streak. The NASDAQ index is the weakest today but only by -0.37%. Since bottoming on April 21 at 4835.04, the S&P

I strongly suspect, the tone of the meeting and comments afterwards will be market moving for the loonie. I don’t think anyone is expecting any kind of deal or short-term changes in tariff rates. Also from Trump: China wants to make a deal very badly This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says he will meet with film industry officials Says he wants to make sure industry is happy with the tariff idea This all sounds like a slow walkdown after a wild tweet late last night. I don’t think this matters at all for markets as even NFLX is barely down but it speaks to

In March this index fell to 41.2 from 46.6, which was the lowest reading since June 2020. It bounced slightly here but that’s hardly reassuring. Composite index 41.7 vs 42.0 Job losses were recorded for a fourth successive month A lack of present incoming new work meant firms were generally willing to let employees leave

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a distinct downturn in tech and energy sectors, leading to widespread volatility across the board. The technology sector, notably the consumer electronics and semiconductors segments, displays significant declines, with major players like Apple (AAPL) down by a steep 3.12% and Nvidia (NVDA) dipping 1.14%. Meanwhile, AMD bucks the

Reminder, on Thursday, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said “I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day” on a tariff deal. We’re still waiting. Bessent: Trading deals maybe as early as this week I’m highly confident that 17 trading partners excluding China have presented with very good trade proposals We

How one picture has come to define the nature of the relationship between the two. Poetic. But essentially, it does sum up the situation as we look towards the FOMC meeting this week. The Fed, staying as independent as they are, will most certainly keep interest rates unchanged. The economy is no doubt softening but

In the European session, the main highlight is the Swiss CPI which is expected at 0.2% Y/Y. The data is unlikely to change much interest rates expectations as the market is already pricing in a pretty dovish path with a return to negative rates. We will likely need a big deviation from the expected numbers

High yield 3.824% WI level at the time of the auction 3.86% Tail -0.2 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Treas Sec. Bessent is saying: Fed’s favorite inflation measure is down Market isn”;t pricing in inflation Hard data is still resilient The Fed meets on Wednesday with the expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The market is pricing in a 28% chance for a 25 basis point cut in June. This article was

The GBPUSD buyers had their opportunity to reclaim control with a move above the converged 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (at 1.33238), but momentum stalled, and the price has since rotated back lower. The failure to stay above those key MAs has shifted short-term control back to the sellers. Support continues to hold above a

Finance Magnates Africa Summit, the biggest event in Africa for the online trading industry, has found a new home in Cape Town. On the 29th & 30th of May, FMAS:25 will welcome the local and international attendees to Cape Town International Convention Centre (CTICC). As the financial hub of South Africa, Cape Town offers the

Leading CFD Broker, easyMarkets, released its Q1 2025 market recap, revealing key trends in global trading behaviours and highlighting significant developments across various sectors. · Gold, Nasdaq, and EURUSD remain the top assets for the third consecutive quarter, with gold reaching near-record highs, closing in on $3,000. · The crypto market saw a decline in

Brent and WTI both slammed lower to open the new week’s trade. Brent down over 3%. News here posted earlier: OPEC+ to accelerate oil output hikes, warns of ending voluntary cuts if compliance lags While we’re here, US equity index futures trade has also reopend for the week. ES and NQ down around 0.2%. This

Trump has ruled out removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026, despite continuing to criticise him and urge for rate cuts. Speaking to NBC’s Meet the Press, Trump said, “No, no, no. That was a total – why would I do that? I get to replace the person in

Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation +0.6% m.m prior +0.7% +3.3% y/y prior +2.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Hollywood Reporter spoke with a White House spokesman who said that Trump’s talk about tariffs may get walked back. “Although no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made, the Administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump’s directive to safeguard our country’s national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great

Protectionism threatens to weaken prosperity. All economists agree that free trade is much better for economic growth than protectionism. With free trade you have better efficiency through comparative advantage, access to larger markets, increased competition, lower inflation, more foreign investment and so on. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

A Wall Street Journal op-ed from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. It ostensibly outlines the economic vision as a revival plan for America’s working class but reads more like campaign rhetoric than grounded policy. Framed as a moral reckoning with the past failures of globalization, it blames neoliberal trade policies—particularly China’s WTO entry—for decades of American

The USDCHF continues to struggle with upside momentum after repeated failures near key technical resistance levels last week. Last week, the pair attempted to break above the high extreme at 0.8333 and move toward the 38.2% retracement of the March–April decline at 0.83505, but sellers held firm. That resistance zone has capped gains on multiple

Prelim was 51.4 Prior was 54.4 Composite PMI 50.6 vs 51.2 prelim and 53.5 prior — weakest since Sept 2023 Slower activity growth was linked to similarly weaker gains in new work during April Expansion in staffing was ‘marginal’ The rate of inflation eased considerably from March’s one-and-a-half year high to its weakest of 2025

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures flat It’s still early in the day and there will be bigger fish to fry later in the week with more trade headlines surely and the Fed decision (or should I say Trump’s reaction to it). US futures are holding lower though but that is perhaps some

All last week there were reports that the US was close to a deal with India on tariffs and trade. Now, Bloomberg is reporting that India offered the USA rates of 0% of auto parts and steel so long as the US did the same. If the US takes that deal it would be very

Prior was 50.8 Data: Prices paid: 65.1 vs. 60.9 prior New orders: 52.3 vs. 50.4 prior Employment: 49.0 vs. 46.2 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

You can’t keep the gold bugs down for too long it would seem. The drop last week was a testing one but the 50.0 Fib retracement level held, at least on the daily chart as seen above. That is leading to a solid rebound this week with price now looking for a firm run back

I’ve posted a little on the Australian election, in summary: governing Labor Party won with an increased majority won 85 seats (76 required for a majority) compared with 77 in 2022 opposition centre-right coalition at least 39 seats, 18 fewer than in 2022 – Opposition leader Peter Dutton lost his seat 16 seats still too

We have intervened appropriately But degree of intervention in FX market is smaller than usual Have warned those who are trying to speculate in the market Small and medium-sized exporters joined larger firms in selling US dollar positions today They don’t manipulate but they do intervene. Same difference, no? In any case, this will be

The NZDUSD is trading with a bullish tilt after bouncing from its 100-hour moving average, which successfully stalled declines both on Friday and earlier today. That MA, currently near 0.5938, acted as a technical floor, helping buyers regain control. The price ultimately moved above its 200 hour moving average at 0.59515 and found more buyers

Tax legislation will prevent main street tax hike by making small business deduction permanent Legislation will restore 100% expensing for equipment, expand full expensing to factory construction, provide tax credits and deductions for R&D US markets are ‘antifragile’ over a long-term horizon, it’s never a bad time to invest in America There is some real

They are part of the six countries that the US had shortlisted to be a priority for trade negotiations. So, yeah. The first round of talks is expected on 7 May. For some context, the other countries on that list are India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and the UK. So, let’s see how things go

Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh says Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are negatively affecting the global economy. Chinh says the tariffs are threatening global supply chains Said Vietnam’s export-reliant economy is facing a “challenging and complicated situation.” Trump’s tariffs include a 46% levy on Vietnamese goods This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The evidence is mounting that the US isn’t interested in getting to 0% tariffs. Kyodo reported about 3 hours ago: US rejects request for full exemption from reciprocal tariffs US would consider lowering 14% tariff rate due to resume on July 9 US side stressed that it will only consider extending 10% tariffs or lowering

Fed: 80 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 60 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 90 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 45 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 108 bps (98% probability of rate

Investor Alert: 100% Tariff on Foreign Movies Announced Former President Donald Trump has announced intentions to impose a 100% tariff on movies produced abroad entering the United States. Trump cited significant incentives offered by other countries to attract American filmmakers and studios, describing this as a threat to national security and domestic industry. The Department

The AUDUSD is surging higher today and has convincingly broken above its 200-day moving average at 0.6461—a key technical milestone. On Friday, the pair briefly traded above this level for the first time since November 8, 2024, but bullish momentum faded, and the price settled back into a familiar swing area between 0.6427 and 0.6441.

Urges market commentators not to speculate on Taiwan dollar situation Urges companies not to listen to untrue analysis, sell US dollar positions Taiwan does not manipulate exchange rate Volatility of Taiwan dollar against US dollar has spiked That as foreign fund inflows to Taiwan stocks and firms’ expectations of currency appreciating Central bank not involved

Happy Monday, unless you’re part of the foreign film industry. The US dollar is sliding today as we’re reminded that the Commander in Chief is making it up as he goes along. EUR/USD is at he best levels of the day, up 60 pips to 1.1355 while USD/JPY edges below Friday’s low and is down

The USDCAD continues to trade with a bearish tilt as the 100-hour (1.38197) and 200-hour (1.38394) moving averages act as a ceiling for price action. Each of the last three upside attempts has stalled near these levels, reinforcing their role as risk-defining resistance. While lows have edged slightly lower, downside momentum has been limited. Still,

The data from Australia and Singapore is marked as lower-tier only. Note that the Australian PMIs are not sponsored by Judo Bank any more, they are the S&P Global PMIs for now. Last week we got the final manufacturing PMI for April: Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing April 2025, final 51.7 (prior 52.1) Today it’s

Trump’s weekend interview . I posted summary comments from this earlier: Trump said he won’t remove Powell before his term ends in May 2026 Trump’s retreat on China tariffs ICYMI – lower tariffs “At some point” And more: Trump announces more tariffs – plans 100% tariff on all movies produced overseas Trump says he has

This comment shows why it’s so hard to make a deal. It’s so tough for Iran to trust that the US isn’t trying to disarm them as a first step towards regime change. But the US can’t trust Iran because it’s building a nuclear weapon. Ultimately what happens probably comes down to one person —

If you’ve ever wondered why I publish the interest rates expectations for major central banks so regularly, then this article will clear things up. The main thing driving market prices is expectations. The market’s ebb and flow is guided by the pricing and repricing of future expectations. This doesn’t mean it’s always right, in fact,

Domestic sight deposits CHF 443.1 bn vs CHF 442.6 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Gold pushes back above $3,300 on the day Oil struggle continues as OPEC+ moves to further boost production How have interest rate expectations changed after the US NFP report? Vietnam says first tariffs negotiation with the US to take place this week Switzerland April CPI 0.0% vs +0.2% y/y expected Eurozone May Sentix investor

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has warned that the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence in financial services poses emerging risks to financial stability. In a report released Monday ahead of its biannual Financial Stability Report, the central bank highlighted concerns around system errors, data privacy, and market distortions. “Errors in AI systems, data

It’s a brand new week but we’re seeing the same old story play out as it has been in the past few weeks. The dollar is once again on the backfoot as risk sentiment cools off as well on the day. S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% but it’s a mere breather after nine straight

Trump says he has no plans to speak with Xi this week. Says talking about other matters with China Trump avoids answering question if there will be trade deals this week, says there ‘could’ be This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Global economic uncertainties are rising. Calls on Asian countries to work together to deal with tariffs. These are just token remarks. There have been some positive signs on US-China tariff talks but more concrete resolutions would be welcomed. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -19.5 That’s a modest bounce after the plunge in the previous month, owing to fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs. That said, investor sentiment remains at a low level but at least the outsized fears have diminished. The expectations index also jumped up to 19.6, up from 3.8 in April previously. Sentix notes that: “This is

In case you missed the weekend news: OPEC+ to accelerate oil output hikes, warns of ending voluntary cuts if compliance lags Amid worries of tariffs weighing on global growth and the US-China trade war still not seeing much progress, the decision by OPEC+ is not doing oil prices any favours at the moment. The bloc

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported in the short-term as we head into the FOMC decision and the first trade deal. This has most likely to do with positioning rather than fundamentals. The short dollar trade got very overstretched so positive news on the tariff front and good economic data is providing a

Goldman Sachs expects China’s export volumes to contract by 5% in both 2025 and 2026, citing mounting U.S. tariffs and strained trade relations. In a recent note, the bank’s analysts said, “Reaching a near-term deal is very difficult, and the substantial increase in U.S. tariffs on China is expected to significantly weigh on Chinese exports.”

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 -0.3% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% The changes are light with the overall market mood looking fairly more tentative. S&P 500 futures are down 0.7% but the drop comes after a nine-day win streak for US stocks. So, it feels like it’s just a bit

US firms thinking of buliding in the US to replace imports from China will need to reconsider their plans in light of another retreat from Trump on tariffs. Speaking over the weekend on the tariffs he has placed on China: “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business

The Financial Times reports that Chinese exporters are ‘washing’ their products by shipping them via third countries to ‘conceal their true origin’ and avoid tariffs imposed by Trump. This is a well-known practice, but the FT is bringing it more mainstream notice. Financial Times front page report: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Trump has refused to rule out the use of military force to take control of Greenland, calling the territory vital for American security interests. “I don’t rule it out. I don’t say I’m going to do it, but I don’t rule out anything,” Trump said in an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday.

All of the above will re-open on Tuesday. ** China has been closed since Thursday: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

With the latest inflation reading here, it looks like the SNB will have little choice but to mark a return back to negative rates. Headline annual inflation is back to zero for the first time since March 2021 while core annual inflation is also slowly nudging lower. If you strip out rent from the price

That will see some reduced flows in Europe to start the week, especially after a handful of holidays in Asia as well. However, other major European hubs are all open in the region. In terms of data releases, there won’t be too much on the agenda though. We have Swiss inflation data for April at

Gold Futures Analysis Today with tradeCompass Current Price at the time of this analysis: $3,268.2 Market Bias: Bullish tradeCompass Key Levels for Gold Futures Today At the time of this analysis, gold futures are trading at $3,268.2, slightly above today’s VWAP of $3,264.5, reinforcing the bullish scenario according to tradeCompass methodology. Moreover, gold futures remain

OIL: Barclays cut Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+ Oil price futures gap lower to open the week’s trade – OPEC+ supply hike cited OPEC+ to accelerate oil output hikes, warns of ending voluntary cuts if compliance lags An impossible move for the Taiwan dollar, that happened anyway! MUFG on the

It’s going to be a light week for economic events, as is usually the case following the release of the U.S. non-farm employment change data. On Monday, the U.S. will publish the ISM services PMI, and on Tuesday, its trade balance data which typically doesn’t attract much attention but is worth watching given the current

Barclays has cut its Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+. The bank now sees Brent averaging $66 per barrel in 2025 (down $4) and $60 in 2026 (down $2). Key takeaways: OPEC+ ramped up output by 411,000 bpd in June, its second consecutive month of aggressive supply increases. Saudi Arabia is

A note from MUFG says the Taiwanese dollar posted its largest single-day gain since at least 1983—possibly in its history—on Friday, May 2, soaring 3.8% in a single session and 5.5% over the week. The broader Asian FX complex also rallied, led by gains in the Korean won (+1.7%), Malaysian ringgit (+1.4%), Singapore dollar (+1%),

The Taiwanewse dollar has rocketed higher. This is reigniting specualtion that some Asian countries are planning to revaule their currencies as a move to gain concession from the US on tariffs (a higher currency makes a country’s exports more expensive, at the margin). The USD is lower across the board today. Incluidng against the Chinese

I posted the threat from Japan’s finance minister Kato back on Friday. Kato had raised eyebrows by suggesting that Japan’s massive holdings — more than $1 trillion and the largest globally — could be “a card” in trade talks: Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings among tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US,

There are just a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1300 and 1.1400 levels, with price action sitting right in between the expiries at the moment. They are notable but not likely to offer much impact though, as they don’t tie in to

Following his election win Australian PM Albanese says he spoke to Trump discussed tariffs discussed AUKUS (AUKUS is a defence agreement re submarines) Says Trump expressed a desire to work together Albanese This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements for April 2025 +0.5% m/m prior +0.4% ANZ says in the remarks to their report that this series: “continues to point to a resilient labour market.” — The main news from Australia today was the landslide win for the incumbent government in Saturday’s election. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Trading has been thinned out in Asia today with multiple market holidays: Japanese, South Korean, Hong Kong and Chinese markets are closed today for holidays Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. Its been an active session for news, with multiple comments from Trump on all sorts of topics. Of

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Services PMI April 2025, 51.0 preliminary reading was 51.4 prior 51.6 Composite Last week week had the final for manufacturing, 51.7 (prior 52.1) * Over the weekend Australia reelected the incumbent government with an increased majority, a ‘landslide’ victory. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters conveying the information that OPEC+ is preparing to fast-track oil output hikes through October and may scrap 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary production cuts by November if member compliance does not improve. Reuters cite according to five sources. The decision follows April’s surprise move to raise output faster than expected, a

Buffett confirms CEO handover: Greg Abel will take over as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year. Buffett said he’ll still “hang around” to help, especially during times of major opportunity, but Abel will have final authority over operations and capital decisions. Buffett is Berkshire’s largest shareholder with over $160 billion

Romanian “hard-right” (pundit desciption) candidate George Simion is leading the presidential election with 40% of the vote after 95% of ballots were counted, excluding those from the diaspora, according to official data released Sunday. Centrists Nicușor Dan and Crin Antonescu had been running neck and neck, but Dan has now edged into second place, setting

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, only a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1293 USD/JPY 144.88 GBP/USD 1.3275 USD/CHF 0.8270 USD/CAD 1.3808 AUD/USD 0.6440 …

Sat: Australian Election Mon: Hong Kong Holiday (Buddha’s Birth), Japanese Holiday (Children’s Day), UK Holiday (Bank Holiday); Swiss CPI (Apr), EZ Sentix (May), US ISM Services PMI (Apr), Turkish CPI (Apr) Tue: Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Apr), EZ Composite/Services Final PMI (Apr), Producer Prices (Mar), US International Trade (Mar), New Zealand Unemployment (Q1) Wed: FOMC,

S&P index closes up for the 9th day. Goldman expects OPEC plus to announce 0.41M BPD increase for June ANZ: Gold pullback creates attractive re-entry opportunity towards $3,600/oz It’s been a long time since the S&P 500 was up this many days in a row OPEC+ discussing a production increase of 400K barrels per day

The S&P is closing higher for the ninth consecutive day. Since bottoming on April 21, the index is up 11.48%. Looking at the other major indices, the NASDAQ index is up 14.61%, and the Dow is up 9.22% over the same period. For the day, the: Dow industrial average rose 564 points or 1.39% at

The AUDUSD made a strong push higher this week, breaking above a key swing area between 0.6429 and 0.64419, and stretching to test the 200-day moving average near 0.64614. The bullish momentum even briefly took the price above 0.64687, but buyers could not sustain the move, and the breakout failed. The pair is now backing

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to announce a second consecutive 0.41M BPD increase in supply for June See Brent averaging $63 in 2025. Crude $59 Sees Brent averaging $58 in 2026. Crude $55 Crude oil is trading at $58.30 down $-0.95 or -1.60%. For the trading week, the price is down $-4.75 or -7.53%. This article

Here is a great chart from Brett Donnelly highlighting today’s 9-day winning streak in the S&P 500 (which is likely to hold given the 1.6% gain so far). It’s the first 9-day run since 2005 and another day of gains would take us back to 1996. The record was a 14-day winning streak that ended

Axios is reporting that Stephen Miller is gaining momentum as a top contender to become President Trump’s next national security adviser (NSA). Miller is currently the Homeland Security adviser and a key architect of Trump’s immigration crackdown. The position opened after Mike Waltz was removed as NSA and nominated to be the next U.N. ambassador.

ANZ sees the recent retreat in gold prices from record highs as a healthy correction. Despite improved US-China trade sentiment, the medium-term macro backdrop—characterized by persistent tariff risks, rising inflation expectations, and slowing growth—remains supportive for gold. ANZ maintains a year-end target of USD 3,600/oz, with USD 3,000–3,200/oz identified as a potential buy zone. Key

The major US stock indices are extending to new session highs after reports that China is looking to offer to the US a solution for fentanyl as a springboard toward more trade talks. The gains are led by the NASDAQ index which is currently up 323 points or 1.83% at 18034.90. The S&P index is

OPEC+ reportedly discussing a June production increase of approximately 400,000 barrels per day (BPD) according to Bloomberg delegates. The group has moved its meeting forward to May 3 (originally May 5) to discuss June output plans, per Reuters. Market expectations suggest OPEC+ will continue adding supply in June, with a consensus forming around a 411k

The major European indices are closing higher for the day and higher for the week. The indices are now up for the third consecutive week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX rose 2.62%. For the trading week the index was up 3.8% last week the index rose 4.89% Francis CAC rose 2.33%.

The NVIDIA Connection: What Big Tech Earnings Tell Us About AI Demand Recent earnings reports from tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon have not only captured investor attention but also provided crucial insights into the booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Central to this AI wave is NVIDIA, the leading provider of

The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, May 2, 2025, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is

The stock market is showing a vibrant landscape today, with the technology sector leading a healthy upward trend. However, not all is bullish, as major tech player Apple faces significant declines amidst otherwise positive growth. 📈 Technology Sector: A Beacon of Growth The technology sector stands out with remarkable gains. Microsoft (MSFT) is up 2.70%,

Central banks are accelerating their shift away from the US dollar, a move that has gained traction over the past decade and shows no sign of slowing. “We believe the diversification away from dollar should persist, as this trend has been well entrenched for the past decade,” the Goldman Sachs strategists wrote. The momentum intensified

We’ll continue to ask US to reconsider tariffs. Tokyo ready to respond to Chinese import surge. Tokyo’s principle is FX rates should be determined by the market. Plaza accord 2.0 hasn’t come up for discussion with the US. Katsunobu Kato is Japan’s Finance Minister. There’s nothing new here as the Japanese continue to push for

The solid non-farm payrolls print today and rebound in the stock market has pricing for a June cut down to 40% from as high as 75% last week. Goldman Sachs is now piling on and pushing their cut fall to the July 30 meeting from June 18. With today’s jobs report, the Fed won’t get

ECBs deGuindos is on the wires saying: ECB can be optimistic on inflation ECB doesn’t target or exchange rate, but watches are closely Does not think the Eurozone will fall into a recession Economic risks highlighted in March is now materializing This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Japan negotiators reportedly firmly opposed to US tariffs proposal US reluctant to exempt Japan from 10% reciprocal tariff – Kyodo Japan PM Ishiba: US auto tariffs are ‘absolutely unacceptable’ Japan’s Kato: We’ll continue to ask US to reconsider tariffs What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Eurozone April preliminary CPI +2.2%

S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% on the day and that sets up the cash index to eye a potential ninth consecutive day of gains. It’s been an impressive rebound in Wall Street to say the least, on what has been a lot talking the talk but nothing about walking the walk just yet. This

Will name cabinet May 12 Parliament to return May 26 Will deliver Throne Speech May 27 Typically, Parliament has returned around 45 days after an election though in 2008 and 2011 it returned after 35 and 31 days, respectively. This is a relatively quick turnaround by Canadian standards. This article was written by Adam Button

The WSJ is reporting that Beijing weighs Fentanyl offer to US to start the trade talks. The manufacturing and distribution of a drug whose purpose to kill is a good idea. I know the US and China have differences, but to knowingly flood through smuggling a drug that kills indiscriminately is just as evil as

Big Tech Earnings: Separating Headlines from Reality When big tech giants like this week’s Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta report earnings, headlines quickly flood the market. These headlines often shape immediate investor sentiment and trading behavior. However, insightful investors understand a crucial truth: Headlines can mislead, and the actual price action provides the ultimate reality

The USDCHF is trading in a choppy fashion following the U.S. jobs report, moving above and below its converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages, both currently near 0.8254. The pair has traded between a session high of 0.8275 and a low of 0.8226, effectively bracketing those key technical levels. The convergence of the moving averages

The GBPUSD buyers had their opportunity earlier this week, briefly driving the price to the highest level since March 2022 (above 1.3433) — but they couldn’t sustain the breakout. The pair reversed lower after reaching 1.34413, just above the 2024 high of 1.3433, marking a failed upside attempt. Since then, the pair has moved lower

CapEx Surge in AI: Smart Investment or Investor Trap? The latest earnings reports from tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon spotlight a substantial rise in capital expenditures (CapEx), primarily driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. But traders and investors alike are now grappling with a key question: Will this massive spending spree

Amazon’s Cyclical Dilemma: Is AWS at an AI Crossroads? Amazon’s latest earnings report, accompanied by a roughly 2.5% decline in pre-market trading, highlights investor concerns about cyclical pressures and profitability—particularly in its AWS cloud computing division. Amid escalating investments in artificial intelligence (AI), AWS faces critical questions that investors must consider: Will AWS overcome short-term

At this time yesterday on CNBC, here is what White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett said when asked about a trade deal: “If you’d like the person in the middle of all that is Jamieson Greer and Howard Lutnick outside of China. And I’m sure they’re happy to talk to you about it; I’m sure

The market has taken down the implied probability of a June rate cut from upwards of 75% last week down to 42% at present. The latest leg in the shift came after a solid but unspectacular non-farm payrolls report. Nick Timiraos from the WSJ highlights the Fed’s view: The April jobs report makes a June

German DAX futures +1.3% UK FTSE futures +0.6% S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%, so that’s feeding into a more positive mood going into European trading. For European stocks, it’s also a catch up to the overnight gains after the Labor Day holiday yesterday. As things stand, trade headlines remain the main driver but there’s

Happy Friday. Futures are upbeat on the comments from China about trade but I find the comments from Japan to be the story today, as the US appears to be set on leaving the majority of tariffs on permanently, including the 10% floor. In any case, the market can turn away from tariffs for a

Analysts at Macquarie say that even if Trump reverses all his tariffs the US dollar is unlikely to fully recover all of its recent losses. They give three reasons : any capital flight from the U.S. isn’t just about foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, or public pension plans abroad selling their U.S. assets at

Despite a jobs report that means (according to WSJ Timiraos, that the “Fed doesn’t have to say anything on June at next week’s meeting” and “makes a June rate cut less likely”, the USD is moving lower with the USDCAD extending to new lows for the year and the lowest level for the year and

The comments from Trump after Carney’s win sparked some optimism that US-Canada tensions would ebb. “I think we’re going to have a great relationship,” he says. “He was running for office. They both hated Trump — and it was the one that hated Trump the least, I think, that won.” You know what would be

The USD is lower vs the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – ahead of the US jobs report. The expectation is for the jobs shows: Non-farm payroll 130K vs 228K last month Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.2% last month Average hourly earnings 0.3% vs 0.3% last month Average workweek 34.2 hours

The EURUSD moved higher in early U.S. trading on Friday, breaking decisively above both its 100-hour moving average at 1.1356 and 200-hour moving average at 1.1363. This move marks a clear bullish shift in short-term momentum after several days of consolidation. Earlier in the week, the pair found consistent support near the 1.1265–1.1270 area, with

Donald Trump’s rise to the U.S. presidency was marked by a series of bold and unconventional policy proposals that many pundits deemed radical at the time. Given the length of the campaign and the public nature of his platform, one would think that the market had plenty of time to prepare and price in the

There is not much on the data agenda likely to move major FX rates around too much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result.

Meta’s Quiet AI Revolution: More Profitable Than You Think? Meta Platforms’ recent earnings report underscores a crucial narrative investors shouldn’t overlook—the company’s highly effective integration of artificial intelligence (AI). Following the earnings release, Meta shares surged around 4.25% yesterday and continued to show resilience today, up an additional 0.9% pre-market. So, what’s driving investor optimism,

Prior was 46.6 Key findings: Output nearly stabilises, having declined in the 12 months prior to April Softest contraction in new orders in over a year Cost pressures cool further, but charge inflation intensifies Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This appears to

Prior was +0.6% (revised to +0.5%) Ex transport -0.2% vs +0.4% prior Durable goods orders: Durable goods orders +9.2% vs +9.2% preliminary Durable goods ex trans -0.2% vs 0.0% preliminary Durable goods ex defense +10.5% versus 0.8% preliminary Nondefense capital ex air +0.1% versus -0.3% preliminary This was all very close to expectations. This article

Apple’s AI Uncertainty: Opportunity or Risk for Investors? Apple’s latest earnings report presented investors with mixed signals. Despite solid overall performance—revenue up 5% year-over-year and services revenue climbing 12%—Apple’s stock experienced a notable drop, falling approximately 3% in pre-market trading today. What’s behind this market reaction, and why should investors pay close attention to Apple’s

Prior was +228K Unemployment rate: % versus 4.2% expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do with positioning rather than fundamentals. The short dollar trade got very overstretched so positive news on the tariffs front is providing a pullback. In the medium term, the US Dollar should keep on depreciating

It’s a big week for the oil market with the main OPEC+ meeting set for Monday. There have been some conflicting reports about how eager OPEC is to bring back curtailed barrels and how far Saudi Arabia is willing to go to punish cheaters. WTI is struggling today down 95-cents to $58.31. I’m not sure

In the European session, we have the final Manufacturing PMIs for a few European economies and the Eurozone Flash CPI. The data won’t change anything for the ECB so the market reaction will likely be limited. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US NFP report although I continue to think that

Prior 6.1%; revised to 6.2% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Shadow on Big Tech: Assessing Future Earnings Risks Recent earnings reports from major tech giants—Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—have underscored an often-overlooked risk factor: China’s economic influence and the ongoing geopolitical tension affecting these corporations’ financial performance. As traders and investors digest recent stock moves, it’s crucial to understand China’s direct and indirect impacts

Well, this is not going well… The problem here is that the US might want to keep 10% for everyone and sell it as good news, which the market might even like (considering that it’s still much lower than what was announced on April 2), but the Japanese are not budging on it. This article

Prior 48.6 The headline reading is a 32-month high while the output index also improved to 51.5, up from 50.5 in March, and that’s a 37-month high. It’s a positive sign to start Q2 as the euro area industry looks to stabilise, helped by meaningful improvements in France and Germany in particular. That said, the

It is reported that the US proposal was a framework that included reluctance to lowering tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum. This was what is being proposed by the US camp with it being centered on reciprocal tariffs. Considering said proposal, Japan negotiators are firmly opposed to it according to the media outlet. Adding that

The USD moved higher but is retracing some of the moves after the US jobs report which came in with the month revisions last month, about expectations. This month rose 177K vs 130K (+47K), but the prior month was revised to 185K from 228K (-43K). EURUSD: The EURUSD moved to a low of 1.1303 which

Japan Prime Minister Ishiba No change at all to our stance of requesting U.S. to cancel tariffs Not in situation where we have found common ground yet But received report from Akazawa that talks were forward-looking Reaching a deal in haste is not necessarily in the best interest Earlier from Japan on tariffs: Japan eco

A year ago, the old Bond King made a prediction about the path of Treasury yields. At the time, the 10-year was trading at 4.57% and he thought they were going higher. “Those that argue for lower rates have to counter the inexorable upward climb in Treasury supply and the likely Sisyphean decline in bond

Japan finance minister Kato is couching his comments in terms of “FX’ but we all know he is talking about JPY. Did not discuss with US FX target, framework to control FX moves Discussed with US need for constructive discussion on FX No discussion whatsoever with US on where FX levels should be Confirmed with

Round Numbers Matter: Microsoft’s $400 Threshold and What Comes Next Investors in tech stocks often focus intensely on financial statements, earnings calls, and analyst forecasts. However, experienced market participants know there’s another vital aspect of trading and investing—psychological price levels, specifically round numbers. Microsoft’s recent earnings-driven surge past the critical $400 threshold provides a compelling

Japan March unemployment rate 2.5% expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% Jobs to applicant ratio 1.26 expected 1.25, prior 1.24 This is the big news from Japan today, IMO: “Japan’s US Treasury holdings among tools for trade talks, Finance Minister Kato says” 99 problems but a job ain’t one in Japan! This article was written by Eamonn

US auto tariffs are ‘absolutely unacceptable’. The Japanese are drawing some red lines here on auto tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Microsoft’s AI Leap: Why Investors Should Pay Attention Microsoft’s recent earnings report has turned heads in the investing community, as shares surged dramatically by 7.63% yesterday, breaking decisively above the significant psychological threshold of $400 and currently trading around $425 in pre-market. But what specifically is fueling this bullish response, and what does it mean

Prior 48.5 That’s a modest revision higher with output rising for the first time in nearly three years. Overall, industry activity is still seen contracting but there is some underlying improvement at least. That said, there are softness in the data with employment, purchasing, and stocks all declining on the month. HCOB notes that: “Since

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Rubio is US Secretary of State and will soon also be US National Security Adviser after incumbent Waltz was fired. says Ukraine and Russia positions are still a little far apart it’s going to take a breakthrough soon on Ukraine to make this possible Trump have to decide how much time to dedicate to this

Prior was 48.3 Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 32-month high. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 37-month high. Business expectations ease to weakest in four months. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “With the headline PMI moving closer to the

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The core reading is the standout here and that will add some challenge for the ECB in trying to communicate a rate cut for next month. Traders are pricing in ~86% odds of that currently, largely due to a softening economic backdrop. But with

Rubio says Ukraine and Russia positions are still a little far apart A big turn around for US equity index trade – higher on Globex on China comments China says the US has sought to begin trade talks, China says its thinking about it … Its not just gold – Goldman Sachs says Asian currencies

Revenues $155.7 billion which is higher than the $154.889 billion estimate. EPS $1.59 versus $1.36 expected. AWS +17% to $29.3 million AWS operating income $11.5 billion versus $9.4 billion previous Forward guidance for Q2 Q2 operating income guidance 13 – $17.5 billion which is lower than expected $17.82 billion expected. Q2 revenue view $159 billion-$164

Prior was 49.5 Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Hassett on tariffs: I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day US April ISM manufacturing 48.7 vs 48.0 expected US initial jobless claims 241K vs 224K expected April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50.7 prelim Canada April S&P Global manfuacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.3 prior Amazon revenues $155.7B vs

Trump on Truth Social: ALERT: All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions. They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape,

Prior 48.9 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Ahead of last Monday’s Canadian election Adam posted on the risk for CAD – minority government: There is one Canadian election outcome that could hurt the loonie That is also a risk for this weekend’s election in Australia. Polling is currently favouring the incumbent Prime Minister Albanese, but its very close. The very real risk

Australian March retail sales +0.3% m/m, improved from February but not by as much as was expect expected +0.4%, prior +0.2% 0.0% q.q in Q1 2025, no change during the quarter is a very soft reading prior +1.0% — Data also for PPI, Q1 2025: +0.9% q/q prior +0.8% +3.7% y/y prior +3.7% also PPI

It’s the May Day holiday in much of the world today and it’s generally a great month for workers getting in paid in US dollars. May tends to be strong for the dollar. Strongest month of the year for the Dollar Index Weakest month for EUR/USD Second-worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY AUD/CAD is particularly

As we look to close out the week, there isn’t too much on the expiries list to take note of. There is perhaps arguably just one for USD/JPY at 146.00 but it doesn’t tie to any technical significance. As such, I wouldn’t expect the expiries to have much impact. The market at the moment is

Politico with the report that might have an impact on the US labour market in the weeks and months to come. Trump’s admin asked the US Supreme Court to allow rolling back immigration protections for about 600,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S. the latest of about a dozen expedited requests the Trump administration has brought

The USDCAD extended its decline yesterday’s’s, breaking below the April 21 low of 1.3781 and reaching a new low going back to October 2024 at 1.3769, before quickly snapping back higher. In today’s session, the pair once again tested the 1.3781 level, reaching 1.3783 before bouncing. Sellers turned to buyers, and the price has since

Comments from China’s Commerce Ministry began with MofCom being couy: “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” “China is currently evaluating this.” But turned confronting very quickly after: In any possible dialogue, meeting, if US does not correct its ‘unilateral’ tariff measures, US has no

Bloomberg have the info on China considering trade talks. China Commerce Ministry says the US has taken the initiative to convey to China that the US is hoping to talk on trade China said to be conducting assessment on US trade negotiations Also wants the US to correct its tariff mistakes, says the US unilaterally

Apple announced EPS and revenues that th modestly beat expectations: Revenue: $95.36 billion vs. estimate: $94.59 billion → BEAT vs. Q2 2024: $90.75 billion → +5.1% Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.65 vs. estimate: $1.63 → BEAT vs. Q2 2024: $1.52 → +8.6% Revenue by Product Segment iPhone: $46.84 billion vs. estimate: $46.17 billion → BEAT

South Korea April CPI more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That headline is via Reuters, recapping the bombshell remark from Kato earlier. Kato made the comments while appearing on a television program. Kato is Japan’s Finance Minister. He said the country’s massive holdings of U.S. Treasuries could serve as a potential bargaining tool in trade negotiations with Washington — though he emphasized there’s no commitment

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will announce earnings after the close. Investors are closely monitoring the results amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, potential tariff impacts, and shifting consumer demand. Expectations are for: Revenues of $94.54 billion versus $90.75 billion in the same quarter last year. That represents an increase of 4.17%. EPS are expected at $1.62 up

New Zealand March 2025 Building Permits +9.6% m/m +0.8% prior and +15.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy minister Akazawa said that FX was not discussed. Negotiation lasted for 130 minutes Able to have thorough discussions Again requested review of tariffs on Japan No comment on specific negotiations Talked how Japan can expand trade, non-tariff measures, economic security with US Told US that tariff measures regrettable Did not discuss forex Want

U.S. Vice President Vance: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon. up to the Russians and Ukrainians now that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are its going to be up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict “Its not going

Apple Q2 25 earnings, revenue and EPS beats: revenue: $95.36B (est. $94.59B) EPS: $1.65 (est. $1.62) dividend per share: $0.26 (est. $0.26) announces $100B share buyback More, services revenue miss a worrying point: iPhone revenue: $46.84B (est. $45.94B) greater China revenue: $16.00B (est. $16.83B) … miss services revenue: $23.87B (est. $26.72B) … a disappointment Mac

The major US indices are closing higher. The S&P index is up for the eighth consecutive day. The NASDAQ index is the biggest gainer for the day: Dow industrial average rose 83.60 points or 0.21% at 40752.96 S&P index rose 35.08 points or 0.63% at 5604.14 NASDAQ index rose 264.40 points or 1.52% in 17710.74

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Other earnings after the close showed: Motorola Solutions (MSI): MIXED EPS: $3.18 vs. $3.01 → BEAT Revenue: $2.5B vs. $2.52B → MISS Reddit (RDDT): BEAT EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.01 → BEAT Revenue: $392.4M vs. $369.0M → BEAT Shares are up around 17% in after-hours trading Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): MIXED EPS: -$0.32 vs. -$0.38 →

A new report says that Europe is arguing that when services are considered that the trade deficit with the US is only €50 billion and they could bridge that by purchasing more natural gas and agricultural products. Sefkovic indicated the EU would not accept a deal that kept tariffs at 10%, which is a critical

The news broke earlier that Tesla is replacing Elon Musk as CEO: Tesla board begins quiet search for possible Musk successor – more on this The data release from France earlier gives an indication to the urgency of this. While new car registrations in France fell 5.64% in April from a year earlier the figure

Pres. Trump says that anyone who takes oil from Iran cannot do business with the US. Oil has ticked up on the headline but is still down modestly on the day. The current prices trading at $58.11 that’s down around $0.06 on the day. The high price reached $59.01 the low price was down at

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America highlights that EUR positioning is broadly long, but notes Real Money investors are still underexposed, leaving room for further upside—particularly as equity flows and FX hedge adjustments shift in the euro’s favor. Key Points: EUR Positioning: Markets are net long EUR, but Real Money investors (e.g., pensions, insurers, asset managers) still have

The JPY complex are all higher (lower JPY) after BOJ Ueda gave a more dovish take after the rate decision today and risk on flows into US stocks after Microsoft and Meta beat expectations. The move has the USDJPY sharply higher, but also the EURJPY which is stretching higher to a key 2025 ceiling defined

Pres. Trump is speaking and says: He just received an update from congressional leaders on the tax bill Things are moving right on schedule This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Consensus estimate +130K Estimate range +25K to +195K March was +228K Private consensus +125K versus +209K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1519% Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396% Prior participation rate 62.5% Prior underemployment U6 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +3.8% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior Avg weekly

Sector Overview: Tech Sector Shines Today’s stock market is dominated by a strong performance in the technology sector. Behemoths like Microsoft (MSFT) are experiencing significant gains, up by an impressive 8.86%. This rally is fueled by investor optimism and strong earnings reports. Oracle (ORCL) also sees a notable rise of 5.17%, affirming robust confidence in

I have been speaking loud about the 1.1271 – 1.1275 area in the EURUSD as a key level for the buyers and sellers (see post here). The level corresponds with the swing high from 2023, and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2020 high to the 2022 low (not shown). Move below

Hopeful for progress with China on trade. We are very close to making progress with China. Have hard offers from more than 20 countries. Trump doesn’t support a tax increase on the wealthy. Asked about tariffs: I think you’ll see news by the end of the day. There’s been lots of de-escalating comments in the

The first report about Waltz came out a few hours ago and now CBS is reporting that he’s out along with deputy Alex Wong. The initial report says US Special Envoy to the Middle East could be Steve Witkoff who has been negotiating with Russia and Iran. The again, there was a hit on Witkoff

We expect to see GDP revised. GDP decline may have been due to inventory stocking of imports. US households consumption is strong. 2 year yields below Federal Funds Rate is signal that the Fed should cut rates. Our policies will bring down inflation. The bolded comment is a classic “rule of thumb” in the markets.

The Q1 GDP was released this week, leading to new estimates for Q2 from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth model. In its first estimate yesterday, it forecasts a 2.4% growth rate. Today, that story is different with the estimate now at 1.1%. As the data releases happen, volatility in the index can be quite substantial

US stocks have moved higher led by sharp gains in Meta and Microsoft after the close yesterday. That has the USDJPY moving higher with a bit of risk on and dovish comments from BOJ Ueda. The EURUSD and GBPUSD have seen down and up price action today. IN this video, I take a technical look

China is out for a 5-day holiday, beginning today, Thursday, May 1, 2025. Markets are closed. There will be no PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading sessions ahead. Chinese markets reopen on Tuesday, May 6. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ press conference: USD/JPY extends gains as Ueda delivers more dovish messaging BOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainty stemming from trade policies have heightened sharply BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation to cool down due to tariffs, slower global growth BOJ governor Ueda: Timing of next rate hike could be swayed a lot depending on tariffs BOJ governor

US & Ukraine have signed the closely watched minerals deal – Bloomberg cite a person familiar with the matter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

All three documents were signed General partnership overseeing the group located in Delaware 50% of royalties will come from new natural resource projects in Ukraine Ukraine deal can be a model for similar international deals It doesn’t sound like they’re anticipating any problems with Ukraine’s parliament. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil futures settled at $58.21. That’s down -$2.21 or -3.7%. The low price today reached $57.94. The high price was at $60.39. The price traded to the lowest level: back to April 9. The settlement is the first below 60 since April 8. The lowest close this year was at

The USDCHF continued its move to the upside after breaking above the 100-hour moving average at 0.82556. That level became a springboard for buyers, who stepped in and pushed the pair higher during the session. Earlier in the week, the 200-hour moving average (green line) provided support, helping to form a base for the current

Prior month 0.7% revised to 0.6% Construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate Details from the Census Bureau: Total Construction March 2025 spending: $2,196.1B, down -0.5% (±0.8%) from February’s $2,206.9B Up 2.8% (±1.2%) from March 2024’s $2,135.8B Year-to-date (Jan–Mar 2025): $485.7B, up 2.9% (±1.0%) from $472.2B in same period 2024 Private Construction Total private spending: $1,688.0B,

EV sales down 39% Hybrids up 29.6% ICE up 17.5% This is an interesting number because it shows that the race to beat the tariffs was real. That’s going to create a bullwhip effect down the line and it shows a real effect on consumer behaviour. That’s going to lead to a blockbuster April retail

In the European session we don’t have much on the agenda given that it’s a holiday in Europe and therefore we should have a quiet session. There’s just the final UK Manufacturing PMI, which is most likely going to be ignored. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM

‘Buy America’ is the theme as the market anticipates some kind of trade deal to be announced later today. That’s led to strong US dollar bids across the board that have accelerated in the last hour. In addition, stock markets are at the highs of the day with the S&P 500 up 1.4% and the

This is it? Are they going to unveil the first trade deal or at least the details? If that’s the case, make sure to follow the news until the US market close as that would be HUGE for the markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The near 3% drop today sees oil poised for a potential decline of over 10% this week with not much reprieve in sight. The previous low in April this year touched $55.15 before a bounce on the tariffs pause. But even then, it hardly resulted in a change in confidence in the oil market. In

It’s an impressive day for the US dollar as the Dollar Index breaks above 100 with a broad bid. The chart here looks like something of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern that targets a rise to 102.00. The market is beginning to shift away from recessionary pricing and Fed cuts. A June cut is still high

The headliners for earnings after the close today are Meta and Microsoft and whatever they deliver on earnings will be critical for those stocks and the Nasdaq. More broadly, I’ll be looking for a few things: 1) Indications on AI capex, including from Qualcomm 2) Any guidance around the strength of the consumer, though we

The 105,441 job cuts last month is 63% higher compared to the same month last year. That brings the year-to-date total to 602,493 layoffs now, which is the highest since 2020. For some context, the figure is some 87% higher compared to the first four months of 2024. It once again underscores the impact of

Prior was 46.3 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is just crossing now, it should be good for risk assets. Yuyuantantian is a Chinese social media account affiliated with China Central Television (CCTV). It operates generally on Weibo and has reported on China’s stance regarding US tariffs before and generally reflects state-sanctioned views. In short, this might be a legitimate sign that real

Bessent sounds like he got a good whipping before coming out with his remarks today. But if the idea is to try and convince that there is a plan, the headline remark doesn’t really help to be honest. The market needs the answer to this question: What are tariffs for? This article was written by

Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 2025 Earnings (USD): Adjusted EPS: $3.46 (BEAT; expected $3.21) Revenue: $70.1 billion (BEAT; expected $68.41 billion) Segment breakdown: Cloud revenue: $42.4 billion (no estimate provided) Productivity revenue: $29.9 billion (no estimate provided) Intelligent Cloud revenue: $26.8 billion (BEAT; expected $25.99 billion) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was 50.7 Prior was 50.2 Panelists noted an increased apprehension in product markets, mainly around the future direction of US trade policy Business confidence at 10 month low stocks of finished goods were reduced for a fifth month in a row, and to the greatest degree of the year so far I’m surprised that

Australian terms of trade data for Q1 2025 AUD barely changed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected — Background to this: Headlines crossing saying the BoJ is likely to slash its GDP forecasts – from 4 days ago Still to come is Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference at 0630 GMT / 0230 US Eastern time. This article was written by Eamonn

Microsoft (MSFT) is set to release its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings after the market closes today, Wednesday, April 30. Expectations are for: Earnings per share (EPS) of $3.22,or a year-over-year increase of 9.52% (from $2.94). Revenue is projected to reach around $68.4 billion, an increase of 10.57% rise from the same period last year ($61.86

Need to see de-escalation with China on tariffs. China needs to rebalance. If US, China can rebalance together, that would be a big deal. Tariffs situation with China will be a multi step process. Chinese economy is slowing down substantially, we will likely revisit Trump’s phase 1 trade deal. If holiday orders not placed, could

Trump tariffs to have ‘tremendously adverse’ impact on the US economy. They ‘hobble’ companies that rely on critical minerals supplies from China. About 40% of goods imported into the country were inputs for domestic production. The odds for a recession have gone up. Tariffs could be particularly problematic for the US clean energy sector. We

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Tesla board has begun a search for a CEO to succeed Elon Musk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 50.7 Prices paid 69.8 vs 70.3 expected Employment 46.5 vs 44.7 prior — New orders 47.2 vs 45.2 prior Production vs 48.3 prior Imports vs 50.1 prior This is a better number than last month and that may highlight a theme from the S&P Global report — that some orders are perking up

Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic shifts in global capital flows away from US assets. The rally is expected to extend through the year, with a target of USD 200,000 by year-end. Key Points: Capital Reallocation: Institutional investors are reallocating away

Japan’s economy is recovery moderately, although some weakness is still seen Economic growth likely to moderate Economic, price projections could change vastly depending on how countries deal with US tariffs Must pay due attention to financial, FX markets and impact to Japan’s economy, prices Expected to keep raising rates if economy, prices move in line

Ford has cancelled its FNV4 software platform, meant to unify vehicle systems across EVs and gas-powered cars. Rising costs and delays prompted the move; lessons from the project will inform future efforts. CEO Jim Farley’s “skunkworks” EV team in California is now the main focus for affordable, software-driven vehicles. Doug Field, a key hire from

Manufacturers are at the heart of the trade war and today’s ISM survey of the industry gave the market some solace: Orders aren’t collapsing. Combine that with largely upbeat commentary from corporates as Q1 earnings roll out and the world is feeling better about the tariff war. I’d caution that could be premature but there

What could’ve been a horrible month for major indices is ending up mixed. For the trading month, the: Dow industrial average still fell -3.18% However, the S&P only declined by -0.77%, while the NASDAQ index rose by 0.85%. For the trading day, the major indices staged a rally into the close. Both the Dow and

Manufacturing PMI 45.4 vs 44.0 prelim Prior 44.9 Key details: New orders and employment all decrease. Input cost inflation at 28-month high. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The start of the second quarter saw UK manufacturing buffeted by adverse global market conditions, rising cost pressures, deteriorating supply chains and increased trade

Prior 65.48k; revised to 65.09k Net consumer credit £0.9 billion vs £1.2 billion expected Prior £1.3 billion After a decrease of £1.0 billion in February, net borrowing of mortgage debt by UK individuals rebounded sharply in March by by £9.7 billion to £13.0 billion. Meanwhile, net consumer credit is seen falling with the annual growth

The market appears to be coming around to the idea that the US economy is fine, or at least that it was fine before April. The combination of upbeat commentary from Visa and the internals of yesterday’s GDP report has the market thinking that the economy is on strong footing. The recent initial jobless claims

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to correct lower as the market unwinds some of the stagflationary risk that was priced in in the past months. The de-escalation trend will likely remain intact until the first trade deal. The stagflationary pricing is what got gold to such high prices, and as we start to price out that

This was an interesting tease from Hassett on tariff deals: If you’d like the person in the middle of all that is Jamieson Greer and Howard Lutnick outside of China. And I’m sure they’re happy to talk to you about it; I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day. CNBC: So

Prior was 241K Continuing claims 1.916m vs 1.864m exp Note that all the claims appeared to be from New York State, which argues this was a quirk rather than a troubling turn in the jobs market. h/t @zerohedge This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Makhlouf is speaking and says: Price risks less clear in he medium term than the near. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the U.S. and China are nearly neck and neck in the race for AI chip leadership. Speaking on Capitol Hill, Huang stated, “China is not behind,” and clarified, “China is right behind us. We’re very, very close.” Huang’s comments come as the Trump administration prepares new restrictions on Nvidia’s chip

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 100 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 64 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 96 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 53 bps (55% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 118 bps

Many individuals and families across the United States face financial hardship, often struggling to cover essential expenses such as rent, utilities, childcare, and medical bills. Navigating the complex landscape of financial assistance programs can be overwhelming, especially for those who are unsure of where to start or what resources are available to them. This is

The Bank of Japan is expected to leave policy ucnahged today. As is always the case with Bank of Japan meetings there is no set time for the statement. Experience suggests 0230 to 0330 GMT ( 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time) is a reasonable time to expect it. What is known re timing is

The stock market bottomed a week after the April 2 announcement when President Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on April 9. That week we reached the peak in trade escalation and from that moment onwards, the risk/reward picture favoured the upside for the de-escalation trend. The negative data continues to be faded

It was a wild month for stock as they were battered in the first week of the month after ‘Liberation Day’ and fell to the lows on April 7. From there it was a choppy path back, culminating in a seven-day rally. How much optimism about a trade deal is built in? We will have

It is mostly tech shares leading the charge though with Nasdaq futures marked up by 1.4% currently. The late rebound yesterday was certainly intriguing but it’s been followed up with some better earnings releases from Meta and Microsoft. Dip buyers are continuing to hold the line with the S&P 500 looking to build on last

Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing April 2025, final 51.7 prior 52.1 the flash was 51.7 also This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The crude oil market experienced a rough month due to Trump’s aggressive tariffs announcement on April 2 that made the market to expect lower demand on the slowdown in the global economy coupled with higher supply as OPEC+ planned to increase production by more than expected. We saw a strong rebound though on April 9

In the bigger picture, the pair is seeing a neat double-bottom bounce off the 140.00 mark. And the jump higher today sees the pair now move to its highest in three weeks. It’s largely a yen move here as the BOJ left interest rates unchanged, before governor Ueda came out to deliver some less hawkish

The outlook could be less accurate than before We can’t ignore US tariffs But also should not overemphasise their impact If US tariffs are zero or at low level, then quicker rate hike could be possible But no need to raise rates hastily when underlying inflation is stalling For not wanting to put too much

This is definitely an interesting comment, especially coming from someone in Ueda’s position. Even if he isn’t in the know, it would be less than prudent to speculate as such though. Or maybe I’m just reading too much into it. But either way, good to keep this in the back of your mind just in

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered in between 1.1250 through to 1.1330. The expiries don’t tie in to any technical significance but could play a part in limiting price action, especially to the downside in the session ahead. That

Bloomberg with the news snippet EU to present new trade proposals to US negotiators next week Bloomberg is gated, but the gist of it is that the European Union is set to unveil fresh trade proposals to U.S. negotiators next week. Although the specifics are still undisclosed, the renewed talks come at a time of

Tariffs could negatively impact corporate profits and wage negotiations next year But it doesn’t mean we have to wait for all of that to make a policy decision Even when US tariffs are decided, the impact would be hard to read This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

But would expect underlying inflation to gradually pick up eventually Expect inflation, wage growth to slow down due to tariffs, slower growth Outlook is not as certain as it was before Timing of underlying inflation to achieve 2% goal will be somewhat delayed Appropriate to support the economy while maintaining easy monetary environment Will guide

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected – Tesla sales fell nearly 60% in April in France Tesla board begins quiet search for possible Musk successor – more on this Tesla has opened a search for a CEO to succeed Elon Musk – Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatens Iran: “You will pay the

US Q1 advance GDP -0.3% vs +0.3% expected ADP April US employment +62K vs +115K expected US March PCE core +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus 0.0% estimate EIA weekly crude oil inventories -2696K vs +429K expected Trump: Carney called yesterday and said ‘let’s make a deal’ Meta EPS $6.43

Japanese media had the reports earlier, in brief: Bank of Japan is likely to revise down GDP forecasts May lower both Fiscal Year 25 and FY26 GDP forecasts to below 1% Nikkei (gated) has more. The Bank of Japan statement is due today. There is no specific time that the Bank announce. Its reasonable to

South Korea April 2025 exports +3.7% vs. expected -2.0% and prior 3.0% imports -2.7% vsl expected -7.0%, prior +2.3% The exports surprise may have been pipeline stuffing ahead of tariffs (Trump paused tariffs only a few days after the announcement disaster). Just a guess. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. Senate narrowly rejects bipartisan measure to block Trump tariffs. This was a symbolic slap-on-the-wrist thng. The House would not have passed the bill. So, interesting, but not market moving. *** Earlier we had an admission of no trade talks with China at all yet from one of Trump’s minions: United States trade representative

United States trade representative Jamieson Greer: initial trade deals to be announced in weeks, not months says he is meeting with Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Guyana on Thursday not close on India trade deal, having calls with India’s trade imnister No further details. Of course. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NQ, ES and the other indices all opened higher. The above is a CFD reflecting ES. It had a huge bounce from lows on Wednesday, carrying on after Globex reopened. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

London markets will be open for trading though but the other major hubs in Europe are all closed in observance of Labor Day. As such, there will be lighter flows in general but that won’t stop an already busy-looking market to start the new month. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, keeping with

NOTE: MY BAD. i HAD THIS WRITTEN BUT DIDN’T REALISE I HAD FORGOTTEN TO PUBLISH THIS EARLIER. APOLOGIES. — Australia Trade Balance for March 2025: AUD6900mn surplus expected +3200mn, prior +2968mn Exports +7.6% m/m prior -3.6% Imports -2.2% m/m prior +1.6% Earlier: Australian Export Q1 price index +2.1% q/q (prior +3.6%) & import +3.3% q/q

Tesla’s board has begun early discussions with executive search firms to explore potential successors to CEO Elon Musk, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. The move reflects growing investor concern over Musk’s demanding schedule across multiple companies: Some directors, including Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, have been meeting with major investors to reassure

United States trade representative Jamieson Greer admits there are no official talks with China on trade. We all know this, but Trump keeps making misleading announcements on China talks. Earlier: US Trade Rep Greer says ‘initial’ trade deals are still weeks away This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking: After a certain amount of time there will be a tariff wall for pharmaceutical companies interest rates should go down he should reduce interest rates I understand interest rates better than him This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted the main points here: Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected In very brief: kept interest rates steady, short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5% by a unanimous vote cut its growth forecasts cited the damage to global demand from higher U.S. tariffs impacting Japan’s nascent economic recovery BOJ Governor Ueda press

Via BNP Paribas analysts, looking for a stronger euro still: “If European investors agree with our view that there could be a rotation out of U.S. assets with the euro a key beneficiary, hedge ratios could rise or dollar asset allocations could be reduced.” could drive a higher EUR/USD the sensitivity of the euro to

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing April 2025 Final prior 48.4, preliminary 48.5 From the report: Commenting on the latest survey results, Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Business conditions continued to weaken across Japan’s manufacturing industry in April, with firms noting steeper falls in both overall new orders and new

The WSJ reports that Republicans are looking at a proposal that the Biden administration had floated: Limiting the deductibility of corporate salaries above $1m. The move would raise around $20 billion per year, which still leaves a huge funding cap. Bessent said this week that Republicans are looking to pass the bill before July 4,

Meta announced better-than-expected earnings and revenues: EPS $6.43 versus $5.21 estimate. Revenues $42.31B versus $41.36B estimate Advertising revenue $41.39 billion versus $40.55 billion Guide 2Q revenues $42.5 billion – $45.5 billion versus $44.41 billion estimate Lower FY total expenses forecast to $113 billion – $118 billion from $114 billion – $119 billion. Shares of Meta

UK business confidence improved to its highest level since September 2023, according to the latest Institute of Directors (IoD) syrvey The IoD’s confidence index rose from -58 in March to -51 in April. Hiring expectations turned positive for the first time since September, while investment intentions also picked up. Chief economist Anna Leach said concerns

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a stern warning to Iran over its support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been targeting Red Sea shipping in support of Palestinians. On social media, Hegseth wrote: “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.” The warning comes just days before U.S. and Iranian

The WSJ reports comments from Senator Lindsay Graham: Says he has 60 co-sponsors of bill to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil Predicts that number will rise to at least 67 “It’s clear to me—and I think it’s becoming clear to President Trump—that the Russians are playing games,” The bill would put 500% sanctions on

U.S. Treasury announces agreement to establish United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund United States and Ukraine signed an agreement on Wednesday to establish United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund Treasury Department and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation will work together with Ukraine to finalize program governance and advance this important partnership Agreement signals clearly to Russia that

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is scheduled to report its Q1 2025 earnings after the market closes today, Wednesday, April 30.​ Earnings Expectations Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts anticipate an EPS of $5.21, representing an 11% increase from $4.71 in Q1 2024. Revenue: Projected at $41.36 billion, marking a 13% year-over-year growth from $36.45 billion Key

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index saw sharp selling in the first hour of trading today, dropping nearly 500 points to a session low of 16,959.53. At the lows, the index was nearing key support from the 200-hour moving average (currently at 16,940) and the rising 50-hour moving average (around 16,959). Buyers stepped in at those levels, halting

Trump will be speaking Wednesday: 11 am Cabinet meeting (1500 GMT) 4 pm ‘Investing in America’ remarks (2000 GMT) 8 pm NewsNation Cuomo Townhall: The First 100 Days (0000 GMT) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

TSLA Short Trade Analysis and Execution Plan Current Price and Key Levels: Current Price: $286.35 Today’s VWAP: $288.51 Today’s VAL: $287.96 April 25th VAH (Key Short Entry Level): $286.87 Entry Strategy: Ideal Short Entry: Near $286.87 (April 25th VAH) Stop Loss Placement: Conservative: $288.92 (Above today’s VWAP) More Protective: $289.78 (Above today’s VAH) Note: Adjust

Treasury Secretary Bessent says Pres. Trump has created negotiating leverage On the verge of becoming an AI superpower The IRS revenue is up One way of collecting additional revenue is to collect capital gains taxes from liquidation of positions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Says Carney will come to the White House That’s tentatively a good sign. USD/CAD is at the lows of the day, down 35 pips to 1.3798. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Does not want China’s products unless they are fair Fairness with China includes IP I want China to do well, I want every country to do well Core GDP was up despite distortions The question is how patient the market can be for some of these deals. I don’t believe anyone really knows what will

Final Q4 GDP was 2.4% annualized Final Q3 reading was +2.8% annualized Consumer spending: +1.8% vs +4.0% prior GDP final sales (excluding inventories): -2.5% vs 3.3% prior GDP price index (GDP deflator): 3.7% vs 3.0% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): 3.5% vs 3.3% expected PCE price index: 3.6% vs 2.4% prior PCE services

New York Post says that Elon Musk is no longer working from White House. Musk’s time working so directly for Trump was always going to be limited so the news shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. The timing was uncertain though. His unpaid special government employee role ends officially in May. Main points: Musk

Major European indices are closing with results. In Germany today, a slew of economic data needed a mixed picture. Preliminary figures from Destatis showed that annual inflation eased slightly to 2.1% in April from 2.2% in March, though it came in just above the consensus estimate of 2.0%. Meanwhile, the economy showed modest signs of

Bloomberg writes “The draft agreement, which envisages creating a joint fund to manage Ukraine’s investment projects, has been finalized and may be signed as soon as Wednesday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.” It further adds “As part of the agreement, the US and Ukraine will seek to

There were rumors yesterday that India was close to the finish line and that makes sense because deals can be passed without parliament there but I don’t know if the market has the patience for what’s shaping up. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

From Reuters: Saudi officials in recent weeks have briefed allies and industry exports, telling they the Kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices. Oil is down on the headline. The context here is that Saudis are trying to threaten countries that aren’t complying with quotas and/or overproduction payback. This could all come

📊 OrderFlow Intel Analysis & Prediction Update on Gold Futures 🔍 1. Key Recent Price Action & Levels: 3280.9 (April 28th VAL): Price showed clear signs of buyer absorption at this crucial support area, marking a potential reversal point. 3295.2 (Current VAL): Now acts as an immediate resistance. Price approaching this level from below signals

Those favoring no change wanted to gain more info on US tariffs, backed a wait-and-see approach Members favoring a cut cited muted near-term inflation risks and signs of economic weakness Those favoring a cut highlighted need for timely action, given lags Everyone agreed there was a great deal of uncertainty and the situation could change

Prior was +244K Gasoline -4003K vs -1031K expected Distillates +937K vs -1566K expected Private inventories from the API late yesterday: Crude +3760K Gasoline -3140K Distillates -2520K This is a good report for the bulls but the oil market is focused on demand months from now due to the trade war. There is also the OPEC

It’s a choppy day in the foreign exchange market, which isn’t unusual at month-end, particularly in a very volatile month. The US dollar had been slackening in the last hour broadly but there is some life in stocks now and the dollar has rebounded. At the same time, the euro is particularly soft. It’s tough

The initial estimate for Q2 growth from the Atlanta Fed GDP model is estimated at 2.4%. The Q1 GDP was released morning with the first Guinness at -0.3%. The gold adjusted estimate from the Atlanta Fed estimate of -1.5%. In their own words: The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual

Crude Oil Futures Order Flow Intel: Bullish Momentum Building (Prediction Score: +6) Crude oil futures (current price: 59.82) are showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The professional order flow intel analysis identifies strong buyer interest emerging at current price levels after sustained earlier selling. Why a Prediction Score of +6? The bullish bias of

German inflation remains a bit of a sticking point for the ECB. But at this point, the central bank can be thankful for a softening economic backdrop to reinforce their position on rate cuts. Core annual inflation in Germany was seen at 2.6% in March, so that will be again the key estimate to watch

Sector Overview The US stock market paints a troubling picture today, with red dominating the heatmap. The technology sector is notably weak, marked by significant losses. Leading the decline is Microsoft (MSFT) at -1.32%, and Oracle (ORCL) sliding by -2.34%. The semiconductor industry is bleeding as well, with Nvidia (NVDA) experiencing a drop of 2.77%,

The Financial Times with the report on Trump’s top economic adviser Stephen Miran addressing investors last Friday. . FT is gated, but in brief: Some participants found Fridays meeting counter-productive two people describing Miran’s comments around tariffs and markets as “incoherent” or incomplete and one of them saying Miran was “out of his depth” “[Miran]

Trump is washing his hands of the stock market. This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.”

Crude oil futures settled down $1.63 at $60.42 today,. That is a decline of -2.63%. Technically, the next key target comes near the $60 level. The 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low comes in at $59.96. Just below that is the swing low from April 16 which comes in at $59.86.

Yesterday, the GBPUSD reached a fresh high of 1.34413—its strongest level since February 2022—but the rally stalled just 7-8 pips above the 2024 high at 1.3433. That failed break marked a turning point, and sellers have since regained control. On the hourly chart, the price action today has shifted more definitively to the downside. After

The EURUSD is pushing to fresh lows for the day—and for the week—after breaking below Monday’s low at 1.3287. With bearish momentum building, the next downside targets include last week’s low at 1.1307, followed by a key support zone on the daily chart between 1.1271 and 1.1275. The 1.1271 level marks the 61.8% retracement of

Gold is back to flat today after falling earlier. The market is now pricing in 131 bps in Fed easing in the coming year, up 6 bps from yesterday following a couple of poor economic data readings today. The view is that the Fed will cut despite rising inflation as the economy slows. Technically, this

Chinese markets will be closed from tomorrow (1 May) until Monday next week (5 May), in observance of Labor Day. However, that won’t halt any plays on US-China trade relations. But as things stand, we’re not seeing either side be willing to pick up the phone. In any case, we should be seeing a bit

The USDCHF is once again testing its 200-hour moving average, currently at 0.8217, after failing to sustain a break above the 100-hour moving average at 0.82626. This marks several days of price action being confined between these two technical levels, keeping traders on watch for a decisive move. The 100-hour MA has repeatedly capped upside

The US and Ukraine ran into last-minute hurdles on Wednesday as they were on the verge of signing a framework minerals deal, according to the FT. The report said that Ukraine had sought to revisit terms agreed on the weekend but it could still be signed if Ukraine returned to the original terms. However Ukraine

Prior +2.3% HICP m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% A touch above expectations but nothing that will change the ECB’s plan of cutting rates in June. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NQ, ES and the other indices all opened lower. The above is a CFD reflecting ES. It had a decent rally on Tuesday, some give back to begin evening trade . Opportunity for the BTD folks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Economy Slips into Negative Growth Amid Tariff Worries The U.S. economy reported negative GDP growth for the first time since 2022, raising concerns among traders and investors. Markets reacted negatively at the open, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.3% and the NASDAQ falling by 1.8%. Although the underlying economic details remain somewhat stable, the

Bloomberg reports that companies from defence, tech, healthcare and consumer products industries as well as investment funds have been invited to attend and have their products on display in the residence’s foyer. As always, watch out for tariff related headlines and trade deals comments. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -10.7 As mentioned for the Swiss KOF Index previously, the consumer and business sentiment indicators are not surprising at all given the uncertainty around US trade policy and the hit to global growth. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, briefly breaking above a key swing area near 0.6430–0.6442. However, the breakout quickly failed, and the price reversed lower—signaling a bull trap and a shift in short-term momentum. The reversal led to a decisive break below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (0.6390–0.6398), a zone that had

Prior +0.2% GDP Q1 Y/Y +1.2% vs +1.1% expected Prior +1.2% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

“I Do as the President Says”: Musk’s Edgy Pulse Check on Federal Employees In a moment dripping with Muskian wit at President Trump’s live Cabinet meeting today, Elon Musk, not shy of controversy, explained the blunt reasoning behind his recent email “pulse check” to the federal workforce. “Do you have a pulse? Do you have

The major US stock indices are except open lower with the NASDAQ index under the most pressure. In premarket trading, the futures are implying: Dow industrial average -350 points. The index rose 300.03 points yesterday S&P index -76 points. The index rose 32 points yesterday NASDAQ index -330 point. The index rose 95.18 points yesterday

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 April -4.2% vs -12.7% prior Reminder: Trump will speak at an “Investing in America” event at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT Italy April preliminary CPI (HICP) +2.1% vs +2.3% y/y expected Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected China’s Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations Switzerland UBS

Prior month +2.0% Pending home sales 6.1 vs 1.0% estimate Index 76.5 vs 72 last month According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates. While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable

The comments from the Visa conference call regarding the consumer and the global macroeconomy were really something. They highlight that consumers are employed and that, as long as they remain that way, they’re going to keep on spending. Some direct quotes from executives on the call: “In Q2 and through April 21, we have not

The other German state releases around the same time: Hesse CPI +xx% vs +2.4% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +xx% vs +2.3% y/y prior Saxony CPI +xx% vs +2.5% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +xx% vs +1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +xx% vs +2.2% y/y prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Trump congratulated PM Carney on his election win the two agreed on the importance of Canada & the US working together as independent, sovereign nations agreed to meet in person in the near future This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

SMCI – which has been criticized for their accounting practices in recent past – preannounced their earnings estimates, and it is not good: Revenues $4.5 – $4.6 billion versus previous estimate of $5.0 – $6.0 billion EPS $0.29 – $0.31 versus previous estimate $0.46 – $0.62. According to the release, during Q3 some delayed customer

Prior was +155K (revised to +147K) Goods producing +26K Service providing +34K Pay gains for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.6% prior Pay growth for job changers 6.9% vs 6.5% prior This is the worst reading since July and adds a downside risk to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. This article was written by Adam Button at

Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Prior was +2.8% (revised to +3.0%) Core m/m +0.0% vs +0.1% exp Unrounded core PCE +% vs +0.38% m/m prior Supercore (services ex-shelter) vs +3.34% y/y prior Services inflation vs +0.375% m/m prior Headline PCE Headline PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.2% expected Deflator +0.0% m/m vs +0.0% expected Unrounded

Will continue to sell $42 billion in 10s This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved higher in today’s trading, pushing up to test both the 200-hour moving average at 1.3845 and the 100-hour moving average just above at 1.3854. These levels now define the near-term technical ceiling. A firm move above both MAs—with momentum—would open the door to further upside targets. The first level to watch

Trump will deliver ‘Investing in America’ remarks on Wednesday afternoon, US Eastern time Chinese markets closed tomorrow, Thursday, through to reopening on Tuesday next week US media report – Elon Musk no longer working from White House Australian Treasurer Chalmers says says the market expects more interest rate cuts * China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for

ANZ business survey, business confidence and activity both lower than in March. April 2 was when Trump announced his huge tariffs, though he did back track on them somewhat. Business confidence fell 9 points to 49.3 Expected own activity fell 1 point to 47.7 ANZ comments: past own activity (the best GDP indicator in the

Prior -12.7% Market index 223.7 vs 233.5 prior Purchase index 146.6 vs 153.4 prior Refinance index 649.0 vs 673.6 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.89% vs 6.90% prior This is never a market moving release. Of course, as long term interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall. The mortgage market index and the US30Y yield are inversely

The previous month’s PMIs, March 2025, showed the fastest in a year ahead of US tariffs. The April results have fallen back, as was expected. There is probably worse to come in the months ahead as the tariff impact bites deeper. China March official Manufacturing PMI 49.0, this is a 16-month low expected 49.8, prior

US March advance goods trade balance -161.99BB vs -147.85B prior US April consumer confidence 86.0 vs 87.5 expected JOLTS March job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M estimate US advanced wholesale inventories for March 0.5% versus 0.5% last month. Estimate 0.0% Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants Trump says he will focus on

When an extraordinary event occurs, the first thing on investors’ minds is how it will affect the markets and, more importantly, how to avoid losses and profit from the situation. The widespread blackout that Spain and Portugal witnessed across the countries on Monday is one such event. The exact cause of the power grid collapse

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

NVDA Stock Alert: Critical Levels Amid New AI Model Developments NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has experienced significant downward pressure, declining over 4% recently and now approaching a critical support level at $103.50. Investors are encouraged to closely monitor this key technical area, as it may indicate whether sufficient buying interest emerges to stabilize the stock and

Prior +0.9% The agency notes “This new rise in prices should be explained by the increase in services prices, in particular transport, and food. Conversely, energy prices should fall again in April, while prices of manufactured products and tobacco should remain virtually unchanged over the month.” Inflation hasn’t been a problem for France for a

The US personal income and consumption report is due at 10 am and the GDP report offers some insights into what is coming. The first hint is on inflation and those numbers were hot in the GDP report, which means upside risks. Guy Lebas from Janney sees that rolling in at +0.4% in light of

Prior month 0.4% Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus expectations of 0.0% Goods producing industries -0.6% versus +1.1% last month last month Services producing industries -0.1% versus +0.1% last month 12 of 20 industries declined in the month of February Advanced estimate for the month of March 0.1% details of the report: Following two consecutive

French Finance Minister Lombard says he discussed idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with Scott Bessent, and Bessent told him this was not unrealistic. This would be great news if we eventually get to such resolution. The market meanwhile continues to rally on positive expectations as the de-escalation remains the trend. This article was written by

Japan March retail sales % y/y expected +3.5%, prior +1.4% and % m/m prior +0.5% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Analysis for Today – TradeCompass Current Price of Gold Futures, at the time of this analysis: 3,316 Market Context: Gold is hovering just above today’s and yesterday’s Value Area Low, and just beneath a cluster of key levels—including the VWAPs of April 27th and 28th (both at 3,317). This confluence is acting as

Prior 103.9 (revised to 103.2) No surprise here as business confidence got hit all over the world after the April 2 announcement. You can see in the chart below how the business confidence just kept on improving steadily with the SNB rate cuts. Now that we have the trade war uncertainty and global growth slowdown

A notable detail from Howard Lutnick’s interview on CNBC today was that the US has a trade deal with one country ready to go — pending ratification from a country’s parliament and leadership. That was followed up by Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino who wrote that “word on Wall Street” was that it was India or

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.2% German retail sales fell back in March and that follows a more negative revision to the February numbers as well. The year-on-year reading at least still shows a 2.2% increase in retail sales compared to March last year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the video above, I kickstart the US day with a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For EURUSD, yesterday’s price action found support at the 100-hour moving average, with several failed attempts to break above the 200-hour moving average. Today, the pair opened between the two

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior 26k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from Australia for the January – March quarter and for March month, 2025. Headline inflation: +2.4% y/y expected 2.2%, prior 2.4% +0.9% q/q expected %, prior 0.2% Trimmed mean (a measure of core, or underlying inflation) 2.9% y/y expected 2.9%, prior 3.2% 0.7% q/q expected 0.7%, prior 0.5% Weighted median (an alternative core

Japan Industrial Production for March 2025, preliminary, % m/m expected -0.4%, prior 2.3% and % y/y prior +0.1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China needs to adapt to changing situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations. China to adjust economic plan based on global change. To promote transformation of traditional industries. There’s nothing new here. Chinese officials continue to repeat the same old stuff but we haven’t really seen any strong action yet. This article was

orderFlow Intel: Nasdaq Futures Analysis Now Nasdaq futures (NQ) are currently trading at a critical juncture around 19560, a key area anchored by yesterday’s VWAP—a crucial dynamic benchmark widely respected by professional traders. The current positioning around this level suggests moderate bullish momentum, though clarity is needed to confirm direction. Today’s price action has been

Japan govt official on factory output: Environment surrounding production remains highly uncertain March motor vehicle production down 5.9%m/m due to lower exports, part supply disruption Some manufacturers expressed concern about U.S. tariffs Not heard directly U.S. tariff measures have forced manufacturers to change production plan CopyThe data is here, its pretty poor: Japan March 2025

Prior +0.3% The bulk of the decline owes to energy prices. If you strip that out, import prices were only seen down 0.3% on the month. Looking at the breakdown, there were also falls in prices for intermediate goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.4%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.1% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 comes in lower than March but better than expected at 50.4 expected 49.9, prior 51.2 more to come Earlier from China, the official PMIs: China April official Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (expected of 49.5) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% GDP Y/Y +0.6% vs +0.4% y/y expected Prior +0.6% The agency notes “The first quarter of 2025 has had one working day less with respect to the previous quarter and two working days less than the same quarter of previous year. The quarter on quarter change is the result of an increase of

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and guide monetary policy. There are

Prior +2.1% Core CPI Y/Y 2.1% vs 1.7% prior The agency notes: “The increase of the growth on annual basis of All-item index was mainly due to the prices of Regulated energy products (from +27.2% to +32.9%), of Services related to transport (from +1.6% to +4.4%), of Unprocessed food (from +3.3% to +4.2%) and of

The euro has fallen out of bed. Apart from what has already been posted there is no obvious smoking gun. Chinese PMIs dropped, indicative of Trump tariffs biting. And it won’t just be China suffering such drops. USD/JPY is a touch better bid also. GBP/USD is a little lower also. US equity index on Globex

Prior 0.0% The average house price in the UK is seen easing a little to £270,752, with Nationwide noting that the market is “likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, we have the French, German and Italian inflation figures, which shouldn’t sway the ECB from cutting in June unless we get a resolution on the trade war front. We will also get the Eurozone Flash Q1 GDP reading but as it’s always the case for the GDP data, it’s old news.

Prior -0.2% GPD Q1 Y/Y -0.2% vs -0.2% prior The agency notes “The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 – following adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations – after decreasing at the end of 2024 (-0.2% in the fourth quarter

A slew of earnings have been released with mixed results. Starbucks was a disappointment. Snap is also lower in despite what seems to be a beat. Snap Inc (SNAP) Q1 2025: Adj. EBITDA 108.4M (BEAT; exp. 65.4M), Revenue 1.36B (MET; exp. 1.35B). The company omits Q2 guidance due to uncertainty. The stock is trading down

There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at 1.1390 and that rests in between the key hourly moving averages of 1.1372 and 1.1401 at the moment. The expiries could help to lock in price action before we get to

The S&P index rose for it 6th consecutive day. Yesterday the NASDAQ index snapped a five day went streak with a modest point. Over all the major indices were up in trading today. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 300.03 points or 0.75% at 40527.62. S&P index up 32.08 points

The market is growing more dovish on the outlook for rates. Two-year yields shown here are on track for the lowest close since September when the market was wrapped up in the idea of rate cuts and job losses. It’s an interesting day to look at the Fed funds curve because there is a meeting

Australian Treasurer Chalmers says the market expects more Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts after today’s inflation figures he doesn’t see anything in the data to substantially alter market expectations Chalmers wants more rate cuts from the RBA, and, more importantly, he wants the voting public to expect the same and to give his

Via twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.5mn barrels Distillates -1.7mn bbls Gasoline -1.2 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Toyota Motor and Alphabet’s Waymo have announced a new partnership to co-develop autonomous driving platforms and explore innovations in next-generation personally owned vehicles (POVs). Toyota and Waymo will jointly create an autonomous driving system for future models. The collaboration will also focus on improving self-driving capabilities in privately owned vehicles. Both companies are looking at

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is speaking in an interview with Fox ‘News’: No trade deal is done until Trump announces it Trump needs to sign off on 18 key trade deals, he is involved in talks There is a plan for changes to auto tariffs The tax deal will make auto loans for US-made cars

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note late last week, htat he is not confident forecasting a level for the dollar: “I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than

Major indices have moved to new session highs. The Dow industrial average leads the chart with the gain of 0.87%. The S&P and NASDAQ are running neck and neck with a rise of 0.68%. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 is which along nicely with a gain 0.80% today. Chatter that there is deals on the

UK Lloyds Business Barometer for April 2025 comes in at a three month low of 39% prior 49% long-run average is 29% gauge of economic optimism fell by 13 points to 28% 70% of businesses expect to raise prices in the coming 12 months Info comes via a Reuters report, which adds in on a

China will be on holidays from May 1 to May 5 (five days in total). This is to celebrate Labour Day. Markets will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, May 1, 2025, and reopen on Tuesday next week. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is speaking at a rally. Trump is speaking across topics. Tariffs, China and what have you. Its no secret he is not a fan of Powell. Trump wants lower rates and so far Powell has not accommodated him. Trump brought Powell on to head the Fed in early 2018. This article was written by

It’s a busy session ahead for data. China’s April PMIs are expected to fall back a little from March, both the official and the unofficial. Trump tariffs should continue to bit in the months ahead. I posted on some analyst takes on jobs and economic activity: Goldman Sachs says Trump tariffs could endanger 16 million

John Paulson is billionaire hedge fund manager who leads his own firm, Paulson & Co. He likes gold a lot higher: near $5,000 an ounce by 2028 … the “high $4,000 range” Paulson says that estimate was put to him, adding that “It’s a well-informed prediction. I think that’s a reasonable number”. Citing: “As central

“If there Is no progress, US will step back as mediators in this process” I pray this war ends but Russia is in an interesting spot here. They can stall and it sounds like Trump would possibly turn to secondary sanctions if it falls apart but at the same time, he would drop military support

If auto makers can’t get parts we don’t want to penalize them There is great support for a tax deal Not at all worried about the auto industry India coming along great, think we have a deal on tariffs He will visit Africa He will speak to Australians More signs point to the first tariff

This isn’t a big surprise given the politics and reality in Europe, along with its clout. The US seems to be trying to use the UK as a wedge but all trade negotiations in the EU are tough. The deadline that matters for Europe is the 90 days after Liberation Day. If the US ramps

All of the deals will be incredibly smart and incredibly thoughtful If we cut our trade deficit in half, that’s 2 percentage points of GDP Americans are going to work in factories as technicians You’re going to see the greatest domestic resurgence in auto manufacturing in the next two years, and I’ll wear it You’re

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to be driven by the same factors over the last two weeks. That being the overall risk mood and potential headline risks. For today though, the loonie is also going to face risks from the Canadian election.

Prior was 4.7% y/y Monthly house price index +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Monthly home price indicators from the FHFA: +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% prior (revised to +0.3%) +3.9% m/m vs +4.8% prior (revised to +5.0%) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.