Ok, so now we know why Iran fired missiles and drones. A US Admiral via CENTCOM reports that the US destroyed six Iranian small boats that were approaching commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. There is also a headline saying citing a senior Iranian military official saying Iran has no plan to target the […]

I would be interested to see the math on Bessent’s calculation on how many barrels are missing. The outlines of it are usually that 20 mbpd goes through the Strait of Hormuz daily under normal conditions. Now that’s down to virtually zero, however Saudi Arabia fired up an east-west pipeline to the Red Sea and

US CENTCOM says military support for Project Freedom begins May 4, deploying guided-missile destroyers, 100-plus aircraft, unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members to the Strait of Hormuz. Summary: US Central Command announced it will begin supporting Project Freedom from May 4, per the CENTCOM post Military assets committed include guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land

The y/y was steady at 4.3% in April from 4.3% in March. Still rising inflation in Australia, just a littel more slowly according to the m/m figures. Earlier: CBA tips RBA rate hike tomorrow but warns Iran war makes it a close call. Split RBA board A third consecutive RBA rate hike tomorrow This article

ANZ sees Brent above $90 for 2026 with risk of $100-plus into 2027 South Korea’s central bank ready to turn hawkish as chip boom masks inflation pressure RBNZ board member Gai says Hormuz shock does not warrant reflexive rate hikes US Navy to shadow Hormuz convoys but stop short of direct escorts (Avios, echoing WSJ)

US-Iran news: Two missiles hit a US warship near Jask Island after it ignored Iran’s warnings – Fars Senior US official denies a US ship was hit by Iranian missiles – Axios UAE says its oil tanker was fired at by Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz Iran says will “respond harshly”, warns the

Manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 52.2 prelim Prior 51.6 Much like the country-level reports would suggest, it is all about stockpiling here. That is the main reason boosting euro area manufacturing activity in April as both output and new orders pick up, but arguably for the wrong reason. Of note, it is the first time since

Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 52.8 prelim Prior 50.0 The final report reaffirms a pick up in both output and new orders, increasing at the fastest pace since 1H 2022. All of this of course is linked to stockpiling as clients are rushing with advanced ordering in anticipation of price increases and availability issues. So again,

Japan likely spent up to $35bn intervening to support the yen, but Barclays warns depreciation pressure will persist over the medium term as Iran war energy costs weigh. Summary: The dollar had its largest weekly loss against the yen since February after Japan was reported to have intervened in foreign exchange markets, according to Reuters

A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared that any vessel violating the Islamic Republic’s maritime rules will be stopped by force. The warning, delivered through the state-linked Fars News Agency, serves as a direct challenge to a newly unveiled American initiative designed to break the maritime deadlock in the region. This comes

Trump: U.S. efforts to free the ships in the Strait of Hormuz will begin Monday morning Middle East time US will begin escorting ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. If this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Monday starts off quietly with no significant scheduled economic events, but the FX market will watch for any new developments regarding the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the RBA monetary policy announcement in Australia, while in the U.S., key releases will include the ISM services PMI, JOLTS job

Global Affairs Correspondent for Axios, Barack Ravid, said on X that a senior US official denied Iranian missiles hit a US warship. This has triggered a quick reversal in earlier moves after Fars News Agency reported that two missiles struck a US warship near Jask Island after it allegedly ignored repeated warnings to exit Iranian

Higher energy prices bound to spread to the rest of the economy Policy tightening in June is all but inevitable Increasingly likely that Europe is facing a prolonged period of broad-based price increases It is a slight contrast to what Villeroy said moments earlier in that the ECB needs “critical mass of data” before beginning

If you weren’t looking at your chart today, I would not blame you for missing this event from earlier. USD/JPY saw a quick dump from 157.20 to 155.69 in less than ten minutes as it appears to be another potential intervention play by Tokyo officials. The move seems consistent with the action that we’ve been

President Trump announced on Sunday that the United States would begin coordinating the movement of commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, launching an initiative he called Project Freedom and describing it as a humanitarian gesture toward neutral countries whose ships have been stranded by the conflict between Washington and Tehran. Wall Street Journal

Iran’s Fars News Agency reports that two missiles struck a US warship near Jask Island after it allegedly ignored repeated warnings to exit Iranian territorial waters. The incident marks a fracture in the fragile ceasefire that has been in place since early April and occurs just as the Trump administration launched Operation Project Freedom. The

This impacting opening prices in futures: Trump: US Navy will make effort to free up ships in Hormuz beginning Monday Mid East time Trump launches Project Freedom to escort ships out of Hormuz. Leaves Iran stranded. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 52.2 Key findings: April sees further, albeit slower, increases in output and new orders Business expectations turn negative for first time in 18 months Cost pressures and supply delays worst since 2022 Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The growth we’re seeing in the manufacturing sector appears to

Full report here The latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) showed a complex environment for the Eurozone economy in the short-term, characterized by higher inflationary pressures and softening growth. Professional forecasters have adjusted their expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), projecting a rate of 2.7% for

Prior 53.3 Swiss manufacturing activity shows a notable pick up in April but it could be a similar case to that in Spain here. That as clients pushed up activity in order to rush to secure stock, amid fears of supply shortages. That led to a notable increase in both output and new orders, which

For the y/y +12% prior +0.2% Other data, ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements for April -0.8% m/m prior –3.1% Earlier: Australia Monthly Inflation Gauge showed “Monthly inflation rose again in April” CBA tips RBA rate hike tomorrow but warns Iran war makes it a close call. Split RBA board A third consecutive RBA rate hike tomorrow This

Key takeaways for Today’s Bitcoin Analysis Bitcoin is trading near $80,328, up about 2.25% on the session. The daily read has turned meaningfully bullish, but the current daily candle is still early. The most important signal is the higher POC migration toward 80,150. The key support zone to watch is now 78,750 to 80,150. A

Prior -19.2 Euro area investor morale surprisingly picks up in May, indicating that investors do not expect a further escalation to the US-Iran conflict. There was one notable exception though, being Germany, with the index there falling further to -30.9 from -27.7 in April. Of note, the expectations index also showed an improvement as it

Japan holidays this week: May 4 (Monday) Greenery Day May 5 (Tuesday) Children’s Day May 6 (Wednesday) Constitution Memorial Day (May 3) observed China holidays this week: May 4 May 5 Data from Australia only today: The RBA is expected to raise its cash rate tomorrow, May 5. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Iran’s parliament security chief has rejected Trump’s Project Freedom plan for the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any US interference in the waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation. Summary: Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, issued a formal warning that any US interference in the emerging maritime framework of the Strait

ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027. A US-Iran peace deal could push Brent to $83-87. Summary: ANZ forecasts Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and in the range of $80

Inflation to accelerate in the coming months EBC’s Governing Council member Madis Muller expects inflation to accelerate in the coming months due to the US-Iran war. On Friday, Muller said in a blog post that a rate hike is now increasingly likely unless the conflict in the Middle East ends before the next meeting and

Prior 51.3 Key findings: Output rises at strongest rate in over three years, but demand softens Purchasing activity growth hits four-year record Delivery delays and cost inflation their greatest in nearly four years Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “On the surface, the Italian manufacturing sector signalled its best improvement in

RBNZ board member Professor Prasanna Gai says the Hormuz supply shock does not imply reflexive tightening, but has raised the neutral rate. Pre-emptive hikes are only warranted when synchronisation is high. Summary: RBNZ board member Gai said the model of the Strait of Hormuz shock does not imply a reflexive tightening bias, per remarks attributed

US officials say Navy ships will not formally escort commercial vessels through Hormuz but will remain nearby and share data on mine-free maritime lanes, according to two officials cited by Axios. Summary: The new US Hormuz initiative will not necessarily include Navy ships formally escorting commercial vessels, according to two US officials cited by an

Prior 48.7 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

All commercial ships and oil tankers must refrain from any movement along Strait of Hormuz without coordination with Iranian military Aggressive actions by the US will only “complicate current situation”, further endanger security of vessels Warns US navy to to approach or even consider entering Strait of Hormuz Will “respond harshly” to any threat of

UKMTO says it has received a report of an incident 78nm north of UAE’s Fujairah says a tanker has reported being hit by unknown projectiles, all crew are reported safe This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp to 4.35% in May 5, but warns the decision is line ball given Iran war inflation pressures and softening consumer sentiment. Summary: Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists forecast the RBA will raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May board meeting,

Trump is taking action: Trump: US Navy will make effort to free up ships in Hormuz beginning Monday Mid East time Over the weekend the news of a confrontation on a bulk carrier. A bulk carrier was attacked by multiple small craft 11NM west of Iran’s Sirik on Sunday, UKMTO said. All crew are safe.

Fed’s Kashkari says the Iran war raises inflation risks and may force rate hikes, adding the Fed cannot signal cuts are coming while the Hormuz strait remains closed. Summary: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage, limiting the Fed’s ability to provide clear rate

USD marked down a little. Weekend war news (in VERY brief), the two sides work towards an end: Iranpeace proposal, including a one-month deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end US naval blockade, end fighting in Iran and Lebanon Trump suggested it might not be enough I’ll have more to come on this separately

Sun: OPEC+ Mon: Holiday: UK May Bank Holiday, Holiday: Japan’s Greenery Day, Turkish Inflation (Apr), Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr), US Factory Orders (Mar) Tue: RBA Policy Announcement (May), BCB Minutes (Apr), Holiday: Japan’s Children’s Day, Swiss Inflation (Apr), US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr),

Trump: Tariffs on European cars and trucks coming into the US will increase to 25% Trump: Not satisfied with the latest Iran proposal, not sure we’re going to get a deal S&P Global Canada manufacturing PMI 53.3 vs 50.0 prior ISM Manufacturing index for April 52,7 vs 53.0 estimate Trump notified Congressional leaders today that

On the day: S&P 500 +0.3% Nasdaq Comp +0.9% DJIA +0.3% Russell 2000 +0.5% Toronto TSX Comp -0.2% On the week: S&P 500 +0.9% Nasdaq Comp +1.1% DJIA +0.5% Russell 2000 +0.9% Toronto TSX Comp flat Here is a look at the heat map for the week: This article was written by Adam Button at

Semafor reports: President Donald Trump notified Hill leaders on Friday, the 60th day of the Iran war, that US hostilities with Tehran are over — for now — and thus don’t need congressional authorization. There is some confusion about what the War Powers Act as it says the president needs to seek authorization from Congress

Well this is worrisome: Not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal Not sure we’re going to get a deal We’re negotiating by phone I just had a conversation with Iran We now have talks going on, they’re not getting there options: either blast them away or make a deal, when this war ends oil, gas and

We have a fresh report from the WSJ on the latest Iran proposal, which Trump already said he’s not happy with. The market is taking it positively as it says Iran is “offering hints of compromise in a bid to revive talks.” That’s clouded because it says the sides remain far apart on Hormuz and

Trump announced that he’s raising EU auto tariffs to 25% from 15% “next week” in a surprise move. “I am pleased to announce that, based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars

Iranian state media reports that Iran has submitted its latest peace proposal to the US via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices fell on this headline and S&P 500 futures are now up 23 points to 7268. The virtually identical report was also picked up by Axios’ US war mouthpiece Barak Ravid who writes: Iran delivered on

Pres. Trump on a Truth Social post says he will increase tariffs on European cars and trucks next week to 25% citing that they are not fully agreeing to the trade deal. Stocks have come off a bit on the news but they still remain in positive territory. The US dollar has also moved modestly

Highest since June 2022 New orders rise at fastest pace in over four years Output growth strongest since May 2022 as stockpiling drives demand Input cost inflation hits 3.5-year high on Middle East war, fuel and freight Output prices rise at fastest pace since late 2022 as firms pass through costs Vendor delivery times lengthen

The closure will be in observance of Labor Day and extends to all major European markets. Even the ECB’s payment and securities settlement systems will be down. As such, that will impact liquidity conditions as well. So, don’t expect any leading direction from Europe in driving broader markets for the session ahead. London will still

Bitcoin is pushing higher today, with price action gaining momentum as it breaks above both key short-term barometers—the 100-hour moving average at $76,638 and the 200-hour moving average at $77,267. That upside extension has carried the price to a session high of $78,924, bringing it right up against a critical technical level: the 50% retracement

Oil prices fell yesterday while stocks rallied in what may be attributed in part to month-end flows. But as we get into the new day, we’re still seeing equities hold steadier so far on the day. It may a more muted session with European markets closed, but US futures are holding the gains from yesterday

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. With European markets closed in observance of Labor Day, traders will be left to their own devices for the most part in the session ahead. As things stand, headline risks remain paramount with the US-Iran conflict continuing

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were two of the three dissenters to the Fed statement in a rare move. They’re both out with their reasoning. Kashkari: Pre-Iran: easing inflation and steady jobs pointed to gradual cuts Iran shock adds stagflation risk via oil and supply disruption Hammack: uncertainty up,

Now, this is more like it. In essence, the second round should be more effective given that speculators who have been burned will stay out of the way now. This is a quick 130-150 pips drop now in USD/JPY as the pair falls back to near yesterday’s lows. The low in the day before was

Prior month 52.3 last month. Summary of the details from the report PMI (Headline): 54.5 (vs 52.3 prior) → strongest expansion since May 2022 New Orders: Strong increase (4-year high) Driven mainly by domestic demand Exports weak (down for 11 straight months; tariffs + geopolitics) Output (Production): Sharp rise (strongest since April 2022) Largely tied

Prior month 52.7 manufacturing index 52.7 versus 53.0 estimate. Prices paid 84.6 versus 80.0 estimate and 78.3 last month. Employment index up 46.4 versus 49.0 estimate. Last month 48.7. New orders 54.1 versus 53.5 last month. Production 53.4 versus 55.1 last month. Supplier deliveries 60.6 versus 58.9 last month. Inventories 49.0 versus 47.1 last month.

Tokyo CPI, April 2026 is not going to rush the BoJ into rate hikes! Headline is 1.5% y/y expected 1.6%, prior 1.4% Core CPI (ex Food) 1.5% y/y, slowest since March 2022 expected 1.8%, prior1.7% Core-core (ex Food and Energy) 1.9% y/y expected 2.3%, prior 2.3% Just the data post. I’ll have more to come

Dallas Federal Reserve Pres. Lori Logan is exploiting her dissent at the FOMC meeting this week. The vote to keep rates unchanged was 8 to 4 with Fed Miran voting to cut rates while Fed’s Kashkari, Logan and voted to keep rates unchanged but to take out the easing bias from the official statement. Logan

The video above takes a detailed look of the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. On Wednesday, the Fed kept rates unchanged, but the decision revealed a notable divide beneath the surface. There were four dissenters in what was likely Powell’s final meeting as Chair. Hammack, Logan,

Tech stocks surge as healthcare faces setbacks The US stock market today painted a vibrant picture, with technology stocks roaring ahead, while the healthcare sector struggled to keep pace. Investors witnessed a mixed landscape where strategic choices may dictate future gains. 📈 Technology Sector: Leading the charge The tech sector stood out, bolstered primarily by

The USD is trading lower today as oil slips back below $100 and Treasury yields edge down. The 10-year yield is off -2.2 bps at 4.367%, while the 2-year is also down -2.2 bps at 3.865%. On the data front, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected but held above the 50 level—keeping the

Headlines: USD/JPY tumbles again after early bounce, Japan MOF back in the market? USD/JPY wipes out a chunk of the likely intervention play earlier, so what’s next? US futures keep steadier for now even as oil prices hold at the highs ECB policymaker Nagel says more appropriate to respond in June if outlook does not

Should not forget that baseline scenario already entails a more restrictive monetary policy It would be more appropriate to respond in June if outlook does not improve markedly Well, this just reaffirms the report from yesterday that policymakers were converging towards a June rate hike. The report even suggested that some policymakers were already on

Japan intervenes to defend yen and warns of further action over Golden Week Axios:Trump received briefing on plans for possible military action against Iran ASEAN ministers warn Middle East war threatens energy security and regional growth May meeting, RBA set for third straight hike as Hormuz closure drives inflation surge Japan manufacturing PMI hits 4-year

Inflation expectations need to be closely monitored for signs of de-anchoring Worried that energy prices may stay higher for longer without a clear timeline for end to Middle East conflict Will be paying close attention to indirect effects of higher energy prices That being how it contributes to cost-push inflation in production, transportation, services Potential

The major U.S. equity indices extended their rally into the close, capping off an impressive session—and an even more remarkable month. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite finished at fresh record closing highs, underscoring the strength of the broader market despite some notable weakness beneath the surface. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also

Axios reporter Barak Ravid: CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper and the chairman of the joint chiefs General Dan Caine briefed President Trump for 45 minutes today (Thursday US time) on new plans for possible military action against Iran, two U.S. officials said This is not really fresh news, we knew this was happening. This article

Choosing to keep the bank rate unchanged is not a passive choice It is a deliberate action in deciding to maintain interest rates as it is BOE does not want to lock itself in on interest rates, need to remain flexible Have stressed that we are ready to act if necessary The board has varied

When the drop happened yesterday, I wasn’t convinced that it was actual intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance. I’m sure I was not the only one who felt that way. After Katayama delivered her final warning, we saw USD/JPY initially fall from 160.50 to around 159.30 before tumbling quickly to around 158.00. It took over

Reuters poll: RBA to hike 25bps to 4.35% on May 5, say 30 of 33 economists. Over a third now see rates at 4.60%+ by year-end vs none in March. Strait of Hormuz closure keeps oil above $100; CPI at 4.1%. Summary: A Reuters poll of 33 economists conducted April 27 to 30 found 30

The price movements in USD/JPY in the past two days have been rather interesting. It has a certain feel that Tokyo is intervening but they don’t seem to be going as hard as they did before during previous episodes. That considering the fact we’re seeing USD/JPY bounce back quite “easily” yesterday and then now as

Japan intervened in the FX market — report Trump: Iran is dying to make a deal with us US initial jobless claims 189K vs 215K estimate US Q1 advance GDP +2.0% vs +2.3% expected US March PCE inflation +3.5% y/y vs +3.5% expected Canada February GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% expected ECB rate decision: No change,

Japan April manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 51.6 in March, best since January 2022. Output fastest since Feb 2014 but driven by stockpiling. Supply delays worst in 15 years. Input costs at 3.5-year high. Business confidence near 5-year low. Summary: The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in April from 51.6 in March, its

Prior +0.9% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Apple Q2 EPS $2.01 vs est. $1.95; revenue $111.2B vs est. $109.5B. iPhone $57.0B misses on supply; Mac $8.4B beats; Services $30.98B beats. China $20.5B. $100B buyback. Summary: Apple reported Q2 fiscal 2026 EPS of $2.01, beating the $1.95 consensus, on revenue of $111.2 billion against estimates of $109.45-109.66 billion Net income came in at

Japan basically confirmed FX intervention for first time in nearly two years after yen breached 160/USD, sending it 3% higher to 155.5. Mimura warns further action possible during Golden Week. US and Japan in extremely close contact on markets. Summary: As flagged in our earlier coverage, Japan has now all but confirmed it intervened in

ECB holds rates as expected; June hike fully priced by markets. Deutsche Bank flags upside inflation risk and downside growth risk. Eurozone 1yr inflation expectations jump to 4.0%, highest since 2023. Credit conditions tightest since early 2024. Summary: The ECB kept policy rates unchanged at its latest meeting, a decision in line with market expectations,

Australia April manufacturing PMI 51.3 vs 49.8 in March, but headline flatters. Input costs fastest in 4 years, supply delays worst since July 2022. Output, new orders and employment all fell. Middle East war cited. Summary: The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in April from 49.8 in March, moving back above the

Japan’s senior currency official Atsushi Mimura refused to confirm or deny reports of yen intervention after the currency breached 160 per dollar, as the BoJ’s cautious stance, $120 oil and thin Golden Week liquidity keep the pressure firmly on. Summary: Atsushi Mimura, the Ministry of Finance’s top official responsible for international finance and currency policy,

This is a yen-negative, JGB-positive print in the near term. The magnitude of the miss on core-core, coming in at 1.9% against a 2.3% expectation and prior, is significant enough to give the BoJ genuine cover to delay a June hike despite the hawkish signals delivered at the April meeting. Rate markets will likely push

I don’t know how seriously you can take these kinds of comments. Iran in very bad shape Reiterates that they obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities Iran cannot be nuclear Iran drone and missile factories are down significantly Touts new stock market highs The blockade is incredible, Iran is now not getting any money from oil No

The $8,000 price target is conceptual rather than a formal forecast, but the structural argument underpinning it is difficult to dismiss. Central bank buying has been the dominant driver of gold demand since 2008, and the broadening of that buying beyond the major accumulators to include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Egypt suggests the

China begins 5 days of holidays today, back on May 6. From Japan we get Tokyo area CPI for April. I’ll have more to come on this separately. Yen traders will be grappling with the echoes of the intervention (1, 2) that drove USD/JPY down from 160. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Morgan Stanley pushes Fed cut forecast to Jan/March 2027, citing sticky inflation and hawkish FOMC drift. Euro seen decoupled from rate differentials on Middle East risk; dollar safe-haven bid dominates. Terminal rate seen at 3.0-3.25% Justin had the breaking on this yesterday: Morgan Stanley scraps call for Fed rate cuts this year More detail now:

The USDJPY moved sharply lower today, driven by renewed concerns over potential Bank of Japan intervention as the pair pushed above the 160.00 level. That warning was enough to trigger aggressive selling. The decline stalled just ahead of a key technical target—the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the February 12 low. That level

The stock market is a momentum-chasers’ dream right now. It’s increasingly clear that the backbone of the market rally is AI and nothing to do with the Iran war. Coming into this year there was a big fear about AI capex slowing down or a wall in AI models. Instead, we’re seeing some impressive rollouts,

The GBPUSD moved lower in the early European session, testing a key swing area between 1.3446 and 1.3465. That move also dipped below the key 100-day moving average at 1.3465, but sellers couldn’t sustain momentum. The low reached 1.3455 before buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher. Part of the reversal came as sharp

The Pakistani leaks are starting again and say they expect a revised Iranian proposal to end the war by the end of the week. We’ve certainly heard that kind of thing before but let’s hope it’s for real this time. That’s from MS Now who reports this: Two Pakistani officials in Islamabad with direct knowledge

Prior 0k Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3%; revised to 6.4% The struggle continues as the jobless figure rose by 20,000 on the month. So, that brings the overall number of unemployed persons to above 3 million now (3.006 million to be exact). Meanwhile, the jobless rate is keeping steady at 6.4% after

EPS 2.82 (exp. 2.63), Raises dividend +5% to 0.22/shr Total revenue came in at $109.90bn, beating the $107.1bn consensus estimate and representing approximately 22% growth year-on-year from $90.2bn in Q1 2025 Revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs reached $94.67bn versus a $91.57bn estimate Operating income of $39.70bn significantly exceeded the $36.19bn consensus forecast, pointing to margin

The S&P 500 has extended today’s gain to 38 points, or 0.5%. It has been 13 points lower at the lows as the market digests five big earnings reports from late yesterday and one from this morning. The reactions in those names: MSFT -5.5% META -8.9% GOOGL +7.7% AMZN -1.4% QCOM +16%. CAT +10.1% The

There is a good deal of space available to accommodate inflation pressures by not cutting interest rates as had been previously expected The necessary response by not cutting interest rates as was expected has largely achieved what is necessary under Scenarios A and B, without the need for further rate increases The sheer volatility of

The mega-cap technology trade is becoming more selective. GOOG/GOOGL is showing clear relative strength, while META is under pressure. MSFT has weakened across several timeframes, despite still being a core AI and cloud name. AMZN looks mixed rather than clearly bearish, with softness in the short term but strength over longer windows. For stock investors,

The Bank of England is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% today with one or two hawkish dissenters. At the last meeting, the BoE delivered a hawkish hold with unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged and the removal of the easing bias. Moreover, in the minutes, policymakers made it clear that they

Japan data, March 2026: Industrial Production (preliminary) -0.5% m/m expected +1.1%, prior -2.0% and +2.3% y/y prior +0.4% Manufacturers see April output -0.5% m.m (prior -2.6%) and May output +2.2% m/m – Retail Sales YoY +1.7% y/y expected +0.8%, prior -0.2% and +1.3% m/m prior -2.0% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I often write that the industrial revolution was the biggest thing to happen in human history but we might be re-writing history right now. I want to underscore the amount of spending that’s going into AI right now because the numbers are almost unfathomable, something I touched on yesterday. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta collectively

Nothing propping up JPY so far today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Wage tracker indicates easing labor costs Surveys indicate a rise in other costs Indicators of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months Short-term inflation expectations have moved up High energy costs make firms and households reluctant to invest Supply chains coming under pressure Economy was showing momentum before current turbulence The headlines from Lagarde’s

Prior +0.2% That’s a solid showing even as March data is likely weakened by the impact of the Middle East conflict. Relative to the same quarter a year ago, the quarterly performance here shows a 0.5% increase in GDP as well. The German stats office notes that both household and government final consumption expenditure expanded

BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in April meeting, as expected Dollar slides across the board after USD/JPY selling hits USD/JPY tumbles further after intervention warning earlier Tokyo officials give currency traders one final offramp BoE preview: will the central bank make another step towards a rate hike? Italy April preliminary CPI +2.8% vs

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic and contrasting performance across various sectors. Notably, healthcare and communication services are spearheading the market upswing. Lilly (LLY) bursts forward with a substantial 8.82% gain, establishing itself as a decisive leader in the healthcare sector. Similarly, Google (GOOGL) ascends 5.52%, fortifying investor confidence in communication services.

Prior +0.8% While still relatively impressive, the quarterly growth estimate marks a slight slowdown compared to Q4 2025. That being said, it’s not all too bad considering how economic activity in March is already starting to take a hit from rising energy prices. The pain spread in Spain perhaps is not as significant but still,

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Prior +0.3% The headline reading marks the biggest monthly jump in import prices since March 2022. And no surprises, it is largely due to a massive surge in energy prices (+33.6% on the month). The annual jump shows a 13.2% increase compared to March last year. And to put things into perspective, the last time

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 126.2bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The setup tonight is unusual. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet all report after the close within roughly the same five-minute window — and the options market is pricing meaningful, but uneven, dispersion across the three names. The straddles are sending mixed signals about where the real risk is hiding. Microsoft The implied move sits at 7.4%,

The euro is rising after ECB sources cited by Reuters said: June hike “very likely” and policymakers were in broad agreement Some already advocated for a hike (Lagarde hinted at this) Several Governors think at least two hikes will be needed unless the war ends and Brent quickly drops Governors discussed the required amount of

Powell said he will stay on as Governor for a period of time yet to be determined. He said he intends to keep a low profile. Powell said the decision was due to ‘unprecedented’ legal attacks and ‘ongoing threats’. This is a big move and it takes away a potential opportunity for Trump to install

Final Q4 GDP was +0.5% Consumer spending (PCE): +1.6% GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.6% vs +0.3% prior GDP price index (GDP deflator): +3.6% vs +3.8% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +4.3% vs +4.1% expected Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): Contributions to GDP in percentage points: Government +0.30 vs -1.03 prior Net exports

The White House is preparing markets for a prolonged squeeze on Iran. Under the plan being weighed, the US would maintain its naval blockade on Iranian ports while leaning on allies to raise the cost of Tehran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a senior administration official told the AP. Trump is reviewing multiple diplomatic

So there was a question about whether the move in the yen was due to the strong verbal intervention today, a rate check or actual intervention and it looks like we got our answer. A report in Nikkei says the Ministry of Finance intervened in the FX market to buy the yen (presumably via selling

Prior +0.2% GDP Y/Y +0.8% vs +0.9% expected Prior +1.2% These lower than expected figures further complicate ECB’s decision but points more towards a neutral stance with a slightly hawkish bias in case the war drags on for several more months. Bear in mind that GDP is expected to contract further in Q2 if the

ANZ NZ business survey, April 2026 Business Confidence is -10.6% prior +32.5% Activity outlook +19.5 prior +39.3 I’ll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 2.8% PCE m/m +0.7% vs +0.7% expected Prior +0.4% Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Core y/y +3.2% vs +3.2% expected Prior was +3.0% Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior +0.4% Consumer spending and income for February: Personal income +0.6% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month -0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Personal spending +0.9%

New Zealand business confidence collapsed from +32.5 to -10.6 in April as cost expectations hit a three-year high, though wage and pricing intentions were steadier, offering the RBNZ limited reassurance. ( Summary: ANZ’s business confidence index fell from +32.5 in March to -10.6 in April, a swing of 43 points, though ANZ noted late-March responses

The AUDUSD—like the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD—is trading right at a key technical crossroads, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages converged near 0.7159. That level is acting as the barometer for buyers and sellers. Over the last several hours, price action has chopped above and below that area—classic behavior for a market lacking directional

CPI +2.2% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +1.7% HICP +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.0% Food price inflation eased to 1.3% from 1.8% in March but services inflation picked up to 1.9% from 1.7% previously. The main culprit for the surge in inflation though remains energy prices, which are seen up 14.2% year-on-year. That

The JPY is the currency of the day after Japanese officials, including the finance minister, signaled they are closely monitoring FX moves for potential intervention. That came as the USDJPY pushed to new 2026 highs above 160.00—approaching levels last seen in 2024 and, before that, the 1980s. That warning shot mattered. After briefly breaking above

The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.00% today and keep the non-committal forward guidance by following a “data-dependent” and “meeting-by-meeting” approach. The focus will be mainly on the press conference where market participants will look for clues on the next ECB’s move, what the ECB’s reaction function will be

No comment on FX level In close contact with our US counterpart Closely coordinating with US based on our FX agreement in September last year This is my final warning before action The Japanese yen extended the gains following these comments from Mimura. Earlier we got a verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. This

Prior was +0.1% Canada’s economy expanded 0.2% in February, matching expectations and extending the goods-side rebound that has now driven growth for two consecutive months. The headline masks a more interesting story underneath: manufacturing roared back to life with its biggest monthly gain since January 2023. Manufacturing jumped 1.8% in February, with durable goods leading

Prior week 214K revised to 215K Iniital jobless claims 189K vs 215K estimate 4 week moving average 207.5K vs 211.00 last week Continuing claims 1.785M vs 1.815M estimate. Prior 1.808M 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.797M vs 1.809M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 18 were in New

Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 0-8-1 vs 0-8-1 expected (Pill voted to raise bank rate by 25 bps) Reasonable to hold bank rate at 3.75% given UK economic situation and Middle East uncertainty CPI likely to be higher this year as effect of higher energy prices passes through Our job is to make sure inflation

It’s about a 100+ pips drop in around ten minutes. I wouldn’t pin this as actual intervention but it might be another case of a ‘rate check’ being performed by Tokyo. The pair already dropped to around 159.20 from 160.50 levels earlier in the day, before a sharp drop now to test waters below the

China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in April from 50.8 in March, the strongest reading since late 2020, beating the 51.0 forecast, as output and new orders surged and input costs hit a four-year high. Earlier: China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 50.1) Non-manuf. 49.4 (exp 49.9) Summary: The RatingDog China General Manufacturing

Sees core PCE at 3.2% for March Sees PCE at 3.5% Near term inflation expectations have risen Jobs growth slowing reflects slower labor force growth Consumer spending is resilient Inflation elevated, in part reflecting energy price increase Every new Fed chair takes a look at communication I don’t know if the easing bias will be

Stronger verbal intervention sends the JPY higher. The 160.00 handle on USD/JPY is definitely the line in the sand for Japanese officials but we’ve seen time and time again that their interventions are useless given the negative macro backdrop. The BoJ this week left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected. The quarterly outlook

USD/JPY is now down 1.6% to 157.60 and that marks about a 300 pips decline from when Japan finance minister Katayama came out earlier to deliver one final intervention warning to markets. Of note, the pair is seeing a sharper decline in the past half-hour with that accounting for about half of the drop. But

Main refi rate unchanged at 2.15%, deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% Rates held steady as policymakers flag rising energy-driven inflation risks Middle East tensions push energy prices higher, complicating disinflation outlook No pre-commitment on rate path as data-dependent stance remains intact Short-term inflation expectations rise while longer-term views stay anchored Says ypside inflation risks and

The longer the Middle East conflict continues, the worse the impact will become Where we go from here will depend on the size and duration of energy price shock Monetary policy cannot stop higher energy prices from affecting UK economy, inflation More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

GOOG, MSFT, META: Options market braced for $1 trillion market cap swing after the bell Trump: It is a good time to cut rates Powell says he will remain as a Federal Reserve Governor Powell: Labor demand has softened clearly So long JPOW and thanks for all the memes What are the changes in the

In yesterday’s post, I flagged the 1.3709–1.3715 area as a key upside target (see: USDCAD moves to new session highs. Extends above 1.3700 and looks toward 1.3715), and the market delivered—but only partially. The high reached 1.3710, right into the lower end of that swing area, before sellers leaned and pushed the price back lower.

Central banks bought a net 244 tons of gold in Q1 2026, the fastest pace in over a year, as the March price slump drew in buyers led by Poland, Uzbekistan and China, World Gold Council data shows. Summary: Net official sector gold purchases totalled 244 tons in the first quarter of 2026, up from

Every beginner trader goes through the same cycle. If you’ve spent any time learning to trade, you’ve probably done this: you opened your charting platform, added a moving average, then a second one, then an RSI, a MACD, maybe some Bollinger Bands for good measure, and ended up staring at a chart that told you

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 161.00 level. It doesn’t tie to any technical significance and now with the pair breaking the 160.00 mark, it’s clear skies up ahead; barring Tokyo intervention that is. That is the only

New Zealand’s Finance Minister has overhauled the RBNZ’s MPC charter, making individual member votes public when consensus is not reached and requiring meeting records to attribute material differences in view, effective immediately. Summary: Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced that from today, individual MPC member votes will be published whenever the committee does not reach consensus,

I don’t envy being in the ECB’s position right now. The central bank already had to pause on rate cuts during the summer last year as inflation pressures stopped easing, especially in Germany. A modest economic rebound in the final quarter of last year helped to vindicate their decision to do so but now, everything

China’s official manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 50.1 in April from 50.4 in March, as Iran war-driven energy costs pressure factory margins, a Reuters poll of 27 economists shows. Summary: The official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 for April, down from 50.4 in March, according to the median estimate from a Reuters

Prior +2.6% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2 y/y expected Prior +2.3% Well, the headline reading is the highest since September 2023 and it reaffirms the impact of surging energy prices. When looking at core annual inflation, we’re still not seeing any spillovers yet as the reading there is softer than it was in March even.

S&P Global Rating Dog PMI April 2026 manufacturing PMI improves and beats at 52.2 expected 51.0, prior 50.8 Earlier: China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 50.1) Non-manuf. 49.4 (exp 49.9) I’ll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This follows from the Fed decision yesterday, which reflected a bit of an atypical dissent from a few policymakers. Of note, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan were vocal about not wanting to stick with a more easing bias at this stage. In case you missed it: FOMC decision: No change in rates as expected Besides that,

China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 expected 50.1, prior 50.4 Non-manufacturing 49.4 expected 49.9, prior 50.1 Composite 50.1 I’ll have more to come on this separately. — Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI still to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A note from ING with a take on China’s data today. China’s official manufacturing PMI held at 50.3 in April as export orders returned to growth for the first time since 2024, but the non-manufacturing PMI fell to a 40-month low of 49.4, exposing the weakness in domestic demand. Summary: China’s official manufacturing PMI edged

EPS 4.27 (exp. 4.05) Revenue of $82.89bn beat the $81.46bn consensus estimate, implying approximately 18% year-on-year growth from $70.06bn in Q3 FY2025 EPS of $4.27 exceeded the $4.03 estimate; operating income of $38.40bn cleared the $36.9bn forecast Azure and other cloud services grew 39% in constant currency, beating management’s own 37-38% guidance and reversing a

Prior -0.1%; revised to -0.3% Death, taxes, and German retail sales disappointing estimates. It’s almost the case every time, innit? This is a very, very poor reading with the annual estimate also now falling into negative territory (-2.0%) in real terms. This reflects the pessimism tied to the situation in the Middle East, with surging

From earlier: Japan’s Katayama: We are getting closer to taking decisive step in FX market Japan’s top currency diplomat issues final warning before action in FX market This time, they’re not beating around the bush and being very explicit about it. Essentially, they’re giving currency traders one final offramp to get out of the way

The Trump administration is seeking international partners for a “Maritime Freedom Construct” coalition to restore Hormuz navigation, a State Department cable shows, as peace talks stall and Trump signals the blockade could be extended indefinitely. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the info. Summary: A State Department cable sent to US embassies on Tuesday revealed plans

Prior +1.7% HICP +2.9% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +1.6% Headline annual inflation continues to run up as a result of surging energy prices and that is the case across every country at the moment. Of note, there is a sharp rise in the prices of unregulated energy products (+9.9%) and regulated energy products (+5.7%)

The above image is nearly three years old and — for me — it will be one of the defining images of covering Powell. It was the first time I made an AI image of someone that could be mistaken for a proper news photo. It’s virtually indistinguishable from a proper likeness, especially without knowing

Brazil’s Copom unanimously cut the Selic 25bp to 14.50% but offered no forward guidance, warning that future moves depend on the depth and duration of the Middle East conflict and that inflation projections are moving further from target. Summary: Copom cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% on Wednesday in a unanimous

Highlights of the Q1 report from Meta: Sees $58-61 billion next quarter vs $59 billion consensus Expects capex spend of $125-145B vs $115-135B previously The capex continues to go up, which is great news if you’re in the chip-making or data-center building business. The release specifically cited data center spending. That’s not so great for

The ECB is expected to hold rates at 2% on Thursday. Markets price a 10% chance of a hike today but look to June for the first move. Lagarde’s tone on inflation and the Middle East conflict will drive the euro’s reaction. Summary: The ECB is widely expected to hold its key deposit facility rate

The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on Thursday in an 8-1 vote, with new forecasts set to show higher inflation and weaker growth as the MPC assesses the Iran war’s economic fallout. Earlier: Bank of England rate decision may spring a split vote surprise, HSBC warns Summary: All 62

Prior +0.3% More to come… This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.2% The French economy stagnates in the first quarter of the year and that’s not a great sign, even if conditions in March was weakened by the Middle East conflict. Surging energy prices will continue to have a stronger impact in April and that will leave a bigger market on the economy in Q2.

Goldman Sachs says the UAE’s OPEC exit poses greater medium-term than short-term oil supply upside risk, with UAE crude production potential estimated at just over 4.5 million bpd, constrained near-term by Hormuz closure. Summary: Goldman Sachs said the UAE’s OPEC exit, effective May 1, poses a greater upside risk to oil supply over the medium

The report says that the government is considering to revive subsidies for electricity and natural gas in the summer months this year. It is likely that said subsidies will cover usage from July through to September, with a budget that could reach around ¥500 billion. For now, the source says that the government is planning

One of the dominant growth stories in global markets over the last ten years has been Big Tech. The need to find scale, earnings momentum and long-term disruption by investors led them to the same destinations: a few, technology giants who appeared to own the future. Their balance sheets were sound, their business models were

US military commanders are set to present President Trump with fresh options for military action against Iran on Thursday, according to Axios. The plans under consideration include a concentrated strike on Iranian infrastructure aimed at breaking the nuclear negotiation deadlock, a potential ground operation to seize part of the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial

Shares of Amazon initially fell but are now 1.7% higher on earnings. (now 3.2% lower). Revenue of $181.5B vs $177.3B exp Q2 revenue guide of $194-199B vs $188.9B exp (but this does include Prime Day in Q2 this year) Capex hit $44.2B, up 77% YoY. TTM capex stands at $147.3B, up 67% from $88.0B a

Japan’s industrial production fell 0.5% in March, missing the +1.1% forecast, as Hormuz-linked disruptions cut chemical and fuel output. Manufacturers see a further decline in April before a 2.2% rebound in May. Summary: Japan’s industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month in March on a preliminary basis, missing the consensus forecast of +1.1% and extending February’s -2.0%

Official Chinese PMIs are expected to have slipped in April. The private survey manufacturing PMI, from Rating Dog (ps there is no better named data provider than this), on the other hand, is expected to have risen. I’ll get a preview of this posted soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The oil market is in a bit of a panic today. The main catalyst is a Politico report saying: White House officials huddled with oil industry executives Tuesday to discuss steps to tamp down the surge in energy prices in the event the U.S. keeps its blockade of Iranian ships in place for months. There

Minutes after the Fed kept rates unchanged and had 3 dissenters to having an easing bias and with oil trading above $107, and with gas prices moving to $4.23 a gallon, Pres Trump is saying “Now is a good time to lower rates” Fed Chair Powell in his press conference says that he will stay

The EURUSD is trading lower as yields push higher following the FOMC rate decision and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The move in rates is keeping the USD bid, with the 2-year yield up 9.3 basis points and approaching the 4.00% level. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has extended further above both 4.25% and 4.00%,

AvailableRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhatis elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at

April 29, 2026 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in

The final FOMC decision with Jerome Powell as chair: Prior was 3.50-3.75% Miran voted to cut Hammack, Kashkari and Logan did not support “inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time” Statement says economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace Job gains have remained low Inflation is elevated, in part

Today is all about AI capex. This is the range to watch: $435–475 billion. That’s estimate capex for this year alone from Microsoft, Meta and Google, who all report after the bell. It’s an astounding number that I want to put into perspective. because even people in markets have no idea how big the AI

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s

Headlines: US futures keep more muted awaiting big day ahead Big day coming up on the earnings calendar in Wall Street Gold extends the losses amid US-Iran stalemate, hawkish central banks. What’s next? Fed preview: focus on Powell’s final press conference as no policy change is expected German states see slight uptick in headline inflation

Via oiprice.com: Expectations I had seen: headline crude oil +0.3mn barrels distillates –2.3mn bbls gasolina -2.1mn bbls This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The

Prior was 2.25% BOC says “the labour market is soft” The Bank’s outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027 China’s economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic

The USDJPY has spent most of its time since March 11 trading within a well-defined range between 158.00 and 160.00. There have been brief breaks outside that band, but for the most part, price action has been contained—making those boundaries a clear barometer for buyers and sellers. Today, the buyers started to take more control.

While US-Iran developments might still be the biggest risk to market sentiment, it isn’t the only game in town this week. As we look to round off April trading, key earnings releases are also part of the picture alongside potential month-end shenanigans. On the former, it is going to be a massive day up ahead

Here is a translated report from Trump, who spoke in an interview with Israel’s N12: U.S. President Donald Trump spoke today (Wednesday) with News 12 and stated: “I will not lift the naval blockade on Iran without reaching a deal regarding the nuclear program.” “The naval blockade is, in some ways, more effective than bombings,”

Dow Jones/Market Watch cite analysts who say Kazakhstan and possibly Iraq could follow the UAE out of OPEC, though Baghdad has denied any plans to leave. Analysts warn a weaker OPEC will struggle to stabilise oil prices long term. Summary: The UAE announced it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May, citing longstanding frustration

NIESR cuts UK 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 1.4%, sees inflation peaking above 4% in 2027 and warns of recession risk if the Iran war worsens. BoE seen hiking once to 4% in July. Summary: NIESR, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, cut its UK GDP growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026

Bitcoin made an early push higher today, extending to a session high of $77,882. That move briefly carried the price above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near $77,400—a key barometer for buyers and sellers. However, the break lacked follow-through. Momentum stalled, and the price has since rotated back to the downside, putting sellers

Data is here: Australia headline and core inflation above RBA target. Trimmed Mean (core) was 0.8% q/q vs. 0.9% expected and prior 0.9%. March month headline 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected. This seems to be the narrative for the drip in the AUD. Australia’s Treasurer Chalmers says the Treasury expects inflation to peak at higher levels.

Brent rose for an eighth day to above $111 and WTI topped $100 on reports Trump will extend the Iran port blockade. The dollar firmed. Earlier, US crude inventories dropped for a second week Summary: Brent crude rose for an eighth consecutive day, gaining above $111.75 a barrel, with the more active July contract at

Looking at the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq performance, and the fact that even the SpaceX IPO plans are still moving ahead, it might seem like the geopolitical noise has faded and everything is back to normal. But in reality, nothing has materially changed over the past couple of weeks. Talks lead to nothing, and

Prior +2.7% HICP +2.9% vs +3.1% y/y expected Prior +2.8% Core CPI Y/Y +2.3% vs +2.5% prior Full report here We’ve got lower than expected figures here but they won’t change anything for the ECB as the central bank has already pre-committed to a rate hold at this week’s meeting as they gather more data

As we hit the final bell, today’s earnings slate offers a diagnostic of the global economy. In today’s group of companies, a few are macro-sensitive, meaning their performance serves as a “canary in the coal mine” for broader economic shifts. At the forefront is Visa, the ultimate barometer for global consumer health; any dip in

Here are the changes in today’s MPR: GDP growth (annual) Essentially a wash on growth. The Bank explicitly states “the impact of higher global oil prices on economic activity is small.” Government spending got revised up (provincial budgets), residential investment got revised down (affordability still biting). Net-zero. CPI inflation (annual) This is where the oil

The Australian Bureau of Statistics publish March month and Q1 inflation data today. The numbers are expected to be horrible and will lock in a May (5th) Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike. I’ll pop up a preview separately. ps. Q1 trimmed mean (core measure) expected are 0.9% q/q and 3.5% y/y. Not quite so

Elev8, a global contract for difference (CFD) broker, has been honoured with two awards by FXDailyInfo, a financial news portal. The company was named the ‘Best Trading Experience Broker’ and the ‘Best Trading Platform Provider’, recognising its success in creating a comprehensive, efficient, and user-centric ecosystem for retail traders with Elev8Trader, a trading platform, at

CBA sees Australian March CPI at 4.6%yr, trimmed mean at 3.5%yr, and calls for a 25bp RBA hike in May. Westpac warns the Iran energy shock will broaden through H2 2026. Summary: CBA forecasts headline CPI rose 1.1% in March, lifting the annual rate to 4.6% CBA expects trimmed mean inflation of 0.9% for Q1

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground to start the week as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate has taken oil prices back into triple digit levels. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with US

The Bank of Canada will announce or constrict decision at 9:45 AM. BoC expected to hold rates at 2.25%, maintaining a cautious, “wait-and-see” stance Policy balance: Weak growth and labor market vs. inflation risks from higher energy prices (US–Iran conflict) Inflation backdrop: Headline CPI rose to 2.4% (energy-driven) Core (Trimmed-Mean) eased to 2.2% (near target)

CME equities options data shows investors are still hedging, even as Nasdaq risk looks more balanced Key takeaways CME equities data around 28 April 2026 shows a market that is active, liquid, and still heavily hedged. S&P 500 options remain strongly put-heavy, suggesting institutions are still carrying downside protection. Nasdaq options are also hedged, but

The USDCAD is pushing to new session highs after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged, with the central bank signaling growing concern over a softening labor market. Inflation is expected to drift toward 3% in the near term before easing back early next year—assuming oil prices cooperate. That assumption on oil is not helping

US intel agencies are studying how Iran would react to the US declaring victory UAE quits OPEC and OPEC+ US April consumer confidence 92.8 vs 89.0 expected US Richmond Fed March composite index +3 vs 0 prior US orders chip equipment companies to stop shipments to China’s second-largest chipmaker EU replaces its top trade official

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +% vs +2.8% y/y prior Saxony CPI +3.0% vs +2.6% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prior Hesse CPI +% vs +2.9% y/y prior More to come.. This article was written by

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has extended the losses yesterday after a technical breakout of the recent consolidation. The main thing that’s been weighing on precious metals has been the hawkish central banks amid the renewed inflation risk. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of

Final consumer confidence -20.6 vs -20.6 prelim Economic confidence 93.0 vs 95.2 expected (Prior 96.2) Industrial confidence -7.7 vs -7.2 expected (Prior -7.0) Services confidence 0.9 vs 3.5 expected (Prior 4.1) Consumer inflation expectations 49.1 vs 43.5 prior Well, that’s not a good look as surging energy prices continue to exert heavy pressure on the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong bullish momentum in the S&P 500 has waned recently as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate brought the attention back to underlying risks. The constant push for a diplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war has been supporting the risk sentiment on expectations that a deal would be reached eventually. Nonetheless, the stalemate

Prior +3.4% HICP +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expected Prior +3.4% There is a little bit of good news here as Spanish headline annual inflation comes in softer than estimated. That being said, the EU-harmonised reading did reflect a jump to 3.5% from 3.4% in the month before. So, one can argue that it is a

The overall market mood remains tense amid a lack of fresh catalysts from the US-Iran conflict. Talks between the US and Iran remain gridlocked, with both sides not able to come to terms on how to get back to the negotiating table. That led to some nervousness in trading yesterday already with the S&P 500

The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with no change to the statement. The base case is that this is going to be a non-event given the uncertainty around the Middle East situation and Powell’s final press conference. The US data since the last FOMC meeting in March has

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground to start the week as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate has taken oil prices back into triple digit levels. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with US

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1695-00 levels. Once again, the expiries here may limit price movements closer to the figure level in the session ahead. However, just be wary that the main driver of trading sentiment

That headline, “BoJ can’t save the yen”, is a cracker from ING, straight to the point. ING warns the BoJ cannot save the yen, sees USD/JPY challenging the 2024 high of 162 and flags an outside risk of authorities holding off intervention until the 165 area. Summary: USD/JPY dipped modestly after hawkish dissent at Tuesday’s

Analysts warn the yuan faces earlier-than-usual seasonal weakness as Chinese firms hedge nearly $70bln in dividends, with June’s $24.1bln peak a record. (pro tip – Much hedging is likely already done). Post from earlier this month: Yuan seen strengthening despite seasonal headwinds as fundamentals and flows dominate. Summary: Mainland Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong

Canada’s 2025/26 deficit came in at C$66.9bln, below the C$78.3bln Nov forecast. GDP growth trimmed to 1.1% for 2026. Tariffs seen keeping output 1.6% below pre-tariff path by 2029. Summary: The 2025/26 federal deficit came in at C$66.9 billion, well below the C$78.3 billion forecast from November 2025 Improvement was driven by spending restraint and

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

US Treasury Secretary Bessent says Kharg Island is nearing storage capacity, costing Iran around $170mn per day in lost revenue and risking permanent damage to its oil infrastructure. Summary: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is approaching storage capacity He warned this will force Iran to reduce oil production,

The decision itself is unlikely to move markets, with the hold unanimous and widely expected. The significance lies in the language. Chile’s explicit warning that the Middle East conflict is evolving more adversely than its March baseline assumed adds to a growing body of central bank commentary flagging that the Iran war is reshaping the

The Iran war has done what months of sticky inflation data couldn’t: it has almost completely erased the market’s remaining expectations for Fed easing. The FOMC is overwhelmingly expected to leave rates unchanged tomorrow, with market pricing near 100% for no move. But the real story is further out the curve. Traders are now pricing

Reuters, citing unnamed sources, says the US intel community is examining how Iran would respond to the US declaring victory in the war. That Trump is even considering this is another sign that he’s done with the war. The ‘examination’ part is whether they would open Hormuz. The result may be that we essentially go

U.S. and Iran are closer to a deal than they appear, with talks focused on a staged process starting with Hormuz reopening, though mediators warn the next few days are critical. (Via CNN) Summary The U.S. and Iran are not as far apart as they seem, according to sources familiar with the mediation process, despite

The OpenAI report today hit chipmakers hard and now there is this: Reuters reports that the US Department of Commerce ordered chip equipment makers, including Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA (KLAC), to halt certain tool shipments to Hua Hong, China’s second-largest chipmaker. Shares came under further modest pressure on the report as

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has come under renewed pressure yesterday despite the lack of progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz closure. What has been weighing on the greenback to start the week was the news saying that Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade

Prior was 0 Services index 9 vs 9 prior Manufacturing shipments -2 vs -2 prior For background, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s monthly Survey of Manufacturing Activity is one of five regional Fed surveys closely watched as early reads on U.S. factory conditions, alongside the Empire State, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Kansas City surveys. Released

Earlier today Politico reported (and now the FT confirms) that Sabine Weyand, the Director-General for Trade at the European Commission has been fired. The big surprise of last year’s trade war to me was how quickly the EU caved. It was the one region with the size and clout to stand up to Trump and

BoC preview: rates to remain unchanged amid US-Iran uncertainty and soft data Strong dollar selling expected for this month-end – Credit Agricole Silver erases all post-ceasefire gains as hawkish central banks weigh on precious metals Euro area inflation expectations for the year ahead jump to highest since October 2023 Latest ECB consumer expectations survey shows

CNN cites “sources close to the mediation process” and the report is from a journalist who is in Pakistan. This is a sign that they’re negotiating. There are quick moves in risk assets higher and oil lower on the headline. The caveat here is that leaks from Pakistan and their officials in the past week

Trump is said to harbour doubts about Iran’s Hormuz proposal even as the White House signals it will keep negotiations alive, according to the Wall Street Journal. Earlier: U.S. and Iran closer to deal than it seems as mediators push for Hormuz agreement first This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tech stocks face turbulence as energy sector surges Today’s stock market scene unveils a dichotomy of fortunes across various sectors, with technology stocks encountering headwinds while the energy sector exhibits notable resilience. The dominating narrative of the day appears to be a mixed market mood, prompting strategic reassessments among investors. 📉 Technology Sector: Under Pressure

Prior was 91.8 The April 2026 release, with a survey cutoff of April 22, came in noticeably stronger than expected. The headline index rose to 92.8, up from 91.8 in March and well ahead of consensus near 89.0 — extending a modest run of monthly gains and setting a new high for the year so

UAE quits OPEC, likely in a protest over the war. They will be leaving May 1. Oil fell on this on what’s assuredly an algo-driven move. It’s quickly reversed. For oil prices for now it’s meaningless, as OPEC will be pumping at full-bore for a long time after the war to rebuild inventories. For what

Prior was 54,750 Report for the four weeks ending April 11 The NER Pulse is a weekly private-sector employment tracker launched in late 2025 by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It serves as a high-frequency companion to the long-running monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER), which has delivered snapshots of

IC (previously IC Markets), a leading global provider of online trading services, has announced a strategic partnership with Guillermo Ochoa, accelerating its expansion across Latin America with a sharp focus on Mexico—one of its fastest-growing markets. An icon of modern football, Ochoa continues to perform at the highest level with AEL Limassol, maintaining his status

Bank of Japan holds rates but sharply upgrades inflation outlook as Iran war bites The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on Tuesday, as widely expected, but delivered a significantly more hawkish inflation outlook alongside the decision, sharply revising up its price forecasts while acknowledging that the Iran war and

Forecasts an economic slowdown for the coming fiscal year as Middle East tensions weigh But overall, economic outlook remains stable although conditional on supply chain situation For now, Japanese economy shows moderate recovery signs despite some weakness That outlook assumes no major supply chain disruption though BOJ will keep raising interest rates while adjusting level

The BOJ has stayed on hold as probability of baseline outlook has decreased Underlying price trend is still below target Prefers utilising more time in evaluating Middle East situation and how it will impact economy, prices Takes seriously the fact that there were three board members who dissented on the decision today The other six

Trump and his national security team are sceptical of Iran’s Hormuz offer, with officials saying he doubts Tehran’s good faith and will not drop his demand for an end to nuclear enrichment. (via WSJ, gated). Not so upbeat as this reported earlier by CNN: U.S. and Iran closer to deal than it seems as mediators

Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused crude storage remaining, with exports down 70% under the U.S. naval blockade and a further 1.5 million bpd output cut possible by mid-May, Kpler says. Bloomberg (gated) carry the report. Summary Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused crude storage capacity remaining, according to

Needs to call for more effective, proactive fiscal policy To continue to expand domestic demand To implement appropriately loose monetary policy Will ensure liquidity conditions remain ample Will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable To improve energy security, stabilise property market and price of agricultural products To orderly resolve risks related to local government debt

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD layered in between the 1.1700 to 1.1750 levels. Given the size of the expiries, we could see more cagey price action in the session ahead in and around the levels noted. That especially if

VP Vance has privately questioned Pentagon briefings on the Iran war and raised concerns about serious U.S. missile shortfalls, with Iran said to retain most of its military capability. Summary Vance has repeatedly questioned the Pentagon’s portrayal of the Iran war in closed-door meetings, raising concerns that U.S. missile stockpiles have been more severely depleted

One year ahead inflation expectations rise to 4.0% in March from 2.5% in February 3 years ahead Inflation expectations rise to 3.0% vs 2.5% prior 5 years ahead rise to 2.4% from 2.3% GDP growth seen at -2.1% in year ahead vs -0.9% seen a month earlier Full report here The latest ECB consumer expectations

The fallout from the Middle East conflict is certainly taking a toll on households and the survey results definitely show it. As mentioned before, the prices we see on our screens reflect those of futures contracts. They are not the same as physical prices and prices at the pump, which have skyrocketed. And the longer

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Foreign automakers including Nissan, Hyundai and Toyota have warned the Trump administration they may pull affordable models from the U.S. market if USMCA is not renewed or is significantly weakened. Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting. Summary Foreign automakers including Nissan, Hyundai and Toyota have privately warned the Trump administration they may withdraw their most affordable

The BOJ policy decision earlier sees USD/JPY drop back from around 159.50 to sit closer to the 159.00 level currently. The central bank opted to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.75%. However, there were three board members who dissented and wanted to push for a 25 bps rate hike today. The members who dissented

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warns of decisive FX action coordinated with the U.S. as crude oil volatility drives yen weakness, with the BOJ rate decision due later in the session. BOJ expected to hold rates steady as Iran conflict complicates tightening path Summary Finance Minister Katayama said crude oil volatility is feeding into FX markets

Dallas Fed April manufacturing index -2.3 vs -0.2 prior Canada to set up $25 bilion sovereign wealth fund Iran says it’s looking into the US request for negotiations US sells 5-year notes at 3.955% vs 3.960% WI A big reason why US stocks have been so strong this year: Earnings are growing Markets: S&P 500

Japan March 2026 jobs data. Unemployment rate 2.7% expected 2.6%, prior 2.6% Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.18 expected 1.19, prior 1.19 Still to come: BOJ expected to hold rates steady as Iran conflict complicates tightening path This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan leaves its short term rate at 0.75%, as expected Bank of England rate decision may spring a split vote surprise, HSBC warns Morgan Stanley sees dollar risks skewed to downside as energy shock sensitivity fades Iran has 22 days of storage left as naval blockade drives exports to near collapse PBOC sets

HSBC warns the Bank of England’s Thursday rate decision could deliver a hawkish split vote, with some members potentially voting for a rise, though sterling upside looks limited with 60bps already priced. Summary HSBC analysts say the Bank of England’s Thursday rate decision could produce a split vote, with some members potentially voting to raise

more to come The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.75% as the Iran war clouds its tightening path, with Governor Ueda’s press conference the key watch for signals on the next hike. Earlier: Do you know what time the BoJ announcement is? Read on! BOJ expected hold but deliver hawkish signal on June move BOJ may

Morgan Stanley says dollar risks are increasingly skewed to the downside as FX markets grow less sensitive to energy war headlines, though refined product shortages remain a key upside risk for the currency. Summary Morgan Stanley analysts say risks for the dollar are increasingly skewed to the downside, with FX markets becoming less sensitive to

The market is pricing in only a tiny chance of a Bank of Japan rate hike today but it’s a central bank that’s notorious for surprises, so we will be keeping a close eye. Excluding that, the market will be tuned into signals for the June 16 meeting, which is priced at roughly 50/50 for

UK shop price inflation eased to 1.0% in April from 1.2% in March as Easter discounts helped retailers stimulate spending, though the BRC warned Middle East cost pressures are fast approaching. Summary The British Retail Consortium said UK shop prices rose 1.0% year on year in April, down from 1.2% in March, as Easter promotions

The copper bull case got a fresh proponent today as Scotiabank’s Orest Wowkodaw is back with a market update barely a month after his last one, and the message is that things are tightening faster than expected. Three major supply blows — Grasberg cuts, Kamoa-Kakula downgrades, and Barrick parking the Reko Diq project — have

Prior was 3.980% 6-auction average of 3.725%. Bid to cover at 2.33 vs 2.29 prior The two-year sale tailed by 0.1 bps and this one by 0.5 bps. Those aren’t big misses but Treasury yields are now at the highs of the day, up 3-4 bps across the curve. We could finally be seeing some

I’d be very careful in trying to read the headlines that are doing the rounds at the moment. There are plenty of sources on social media echoing the same headlines that we’ve seen from earlier here: Iran proposes Hormuz deal without nuclear talks in bid to break US negotiation deadlock The headlines are along the

Trump was unusually quiet on Truth Social today but just tweeted out something about talk show host Jimmy Kimmel, calling for him to be fired. The White House briefing is ongoing and Leavitt would not say that they are considering Iran’s proposal, but it is under discussion. That’s something but might just suggest that Trump’s

The US stock market today presents a mixed landscape, with significant fluctuations across sectors, driven by tech volatility and diverse performance in consumer and industrial sectors. Our analysis of the latest stock market heatmap provides a comprehensive snapshot of these dynamic market conditions. 📊 Sector Overview: Technology Turbulence and Consumer Cyclical Struggles Technology: The tech

On Telegram, Iran’s foreign minister said the US has reached out to request negotiations and that they’re looking into the request. On the weekend, Trump said Iran could call the USA if it wanted talks, now Iran says the opposite is underway. Who knows what the truth is but Trump is holding a meeting today

Trump’s interview on 60 Minutes. Trump says he is unsure he was the target in the Hilton hotel attack. Earlier: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious He’s been saying this for weeks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It will be a busy week for the FX market in terms of economic events, but it will start slow with nothing significant on the calendar for Monday. That said, the market will pay attention to any developments from the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the Bank of

Citi: Raising our base case average Brent crude oil price forecasts to $110/95/80/BBL for 2Q/3Q/4Q 2026 Flows could easily remain disrupted through the end of June, which could see Brent oil reach $150/bbl This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was -0.2 Output +19.0 vs +6.8 prior New orders +9.9 vs +6.1 prior Prices paid 37.0 vs 32.7 prior Employment -0.9 vs -1.0 prior Prices received 14.9 vs 5.9 prior Wages and benefits 14.3 vs 14.6 prior The finished goods prices index jumped nine points to 27.6, its highest level since July 2022 This

Full report here According to the ECB’s latest Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), Eurozone companies faced significantly tighter bank lending conditions and a sharp rise in short-term inflation expectations during the first quarter of 2026. Data revealed that a net 26% of firms reported higher interest rates on bank loans, more

ECB policymakers have made it quite clear that they are valuing optionality as we approach the next policy decision this week. And markets are also listening, paring back on rate hike pricing with odds of such a move now seen at ~20% only. Those odds do jump back up to ~63% by the time we

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices continue to edge higher amid the lack of progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The latest reports say that Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade is lifted and then hold nuclear talks later. Trump has been insisting on reaching a

Earlier: China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge – The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.

The broader market mood remains more cautious so far on the day. European indices are lightly changed while S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% with traders and investors still digesting the latest developments from the Middle East. US-Iran talks continue to stall but there is some hope with reports emerging earlier today that Iran might

This is one of the most-confused and confusing periods in markets that I can ever remember. The leaks out of war are coming from at least four separate directions: The US Iran Israel Pakistan None of it is credible, not even close. It’s like there’s a battle within the war to send out the most

India signs New Zealand free trade deal as Modi accelerates global FTA push Preview: Bank of Japan rate decision knife-edge, Japan inflation runs hotter than expected Citi says oil flow disruption could continue, Brent could hit US$150 / barrel China industrial profits surge at fastest pace since September in boost for economy Iran proposes Hormuz

Headlines: The echo chamber harps on Iran proposing to reopen Strait of Hormuz before nuclear deal Iran foreign minister says to continue talks with Oman on Strait of Hormuz Oil prices continue to rise amid the US-Iran stalemate; Iran awaits US blockade removal Dollar lags even as risk mood keeps more cautious on the day

Very sparse. Not likely to move financial markets the one set of items that is due. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has come under renewed pressure despite the lack of progress in the US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz closure. What has been weighing on the greenback to start the week was the news saying that Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade is

The central bank bonanza returns to town this week and will feature plenty of big names on the agenda. The BOJ, BOC, Fed, BOE, and ECB will be stepping up to the plate but are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The hot topic is the Middle East war and we are now officially

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been stuck in a consolidation for almost a month now despite lower real yields, looser financial conditions and a weaker US dollar. The main thing that’s been capping the bullish momentum has been the more hawkish Fed’s stance. This is unlikely to change anytime soon as even if the US-Iran war

China’s import growth is forecast to hit a five-year high of 5% in 2026, overtaking export growth for the first time since 2021, driven by a surge in AI-related chip purchases. (Info via Bloomberg, gated). Summary China import growth forecast upgraded to 5% in 2026, a five-year high, more than double the 2.4% predicted in

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep the policy rate steady at 0.75% tomorrow. The central bank will also release the quarterly outlook report where inflation is expected to be revised higher, while growth lower due to the US-Iran war. There were some speculations a couple of weeks ago that the BoJ could

ING says Japan’s March CPI beat forecasts and inflation will accelerate further, complicating the BoJ’s rate decision on April 28 and keeping an April hike on the table despite market consensus for a hold. Earlier previews with a conflicting view: Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June

Tomorrow we get the Bank of Japan: Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June move BOJ may lean more hawkishly to ease pressure on the yen – Nomura Holidays follow on Wednesday then Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week (Golden Week). This article was written by Eamonn

India and New Zealand have signed a free trade agreement in Delhi, granting 100% duty-free access for Indian exporters and securing an estimated $20 billion in New Zealand investment commitments. Summary India and New Zealand signed a Free Trade Agreement in Delhi, eliminating and lowering tariffs across a range of goods New Zealand grants 100%

This is the second large commercial vessel in the past week have now been hijacked my Somali pirates. Trump’s assertion that the war is nearly done: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious In a moment of rare candour last week Trump compared it to the decade+ Vietnam war. This

An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.1 hit norther Japan, Hokkaido early on Monday morning local time. depth 81km 2023 GMT on Sunday I haven’t heard of a tsunami alert as yet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war before nuclear talks begin, passing the plan via Pakistani mediators to the White House as negotiations remain deadlocked. (Axios reporting on what I reported on hours ago) Summary Iran passed a new proposal to the White House via Pakistani mediators to reopen the

MInor moves since Friday’s close only so far: As an early heads up, Trump is going to be interviewed on 60 minutes Sunday evening US time (from 7pm US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran Foreign Minister met with Oman: Important discussions … focus included ways to ensure safe transit that is to benefit of all dear neighbors and the world This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, the fastest pace since September, with Q1 profits up 15.5%, beating the prior 15.2% reading. Earlier: China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge Summary China’s industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, fastest

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl, citing 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East output losses driving a record 11-12 mln bpd global inventory draw in April. Summary Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90/bbl, up from prior forecast of $80/bbl Q4 2026 WTI forecast

Talks are stalled. No progress to report. Soon: Trump interview on 60 Minutes, 7pm US Eastern time His recent remarks have been delusional: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious Other: Reports that a cargo ship has been attacked in Bab al-Mandab Strait Iran’s FM discussion with Oman on ways

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 218.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump was his usual delusional self over the weekend: Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious Expect more of the same when he speaks on the telly soon. Still, markets seem to like his reassurance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tehran’s sequenced negotiation plan puts war’s end before nuclear discussion. Mid East media with the report. Summary Iran has submitted a three-phase negotiation framework to mediators, per Al Mayadeen’s Tehran correspondent Phase one: ending the war and securing non-resumption guarantees for both Iran and Lebanon; no other issues on the table at this stage Phase

Iran foreign minister Aragchi travelled to Oman as expected on the weekend but then returned to Pakistan, according to reports. There are also reports that there has been some progress on the nuclear file, with the US accepting a moratorium on the enrichment ban or some kind of phased enrichment after 10 years. The comment

Mon: German GfK Consumer Confidence (May), US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) Tue: BoJ Policy Announcement (Apr), Spanish/Italian Retail Sales (Mar), Italian PPI (Mar), US ADP Weekly Employment Change, US House Price Index (Feb), US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr), US Richmond Fed Index (Apr), US Dallas Fed Index (Apr) Wed: Fed Policy Announcement (Apr), BoC

Donald Trump told Fox News on Saturday that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will no longer travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran. Trump said the trip was not worthwhile, claiming that the United States “holds all the cards” in the war and does not need to send a delegation on an 18-hour

Iranian foreign minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistani officials in Islamabad today in an effort to try to restart talks. A Pakistani source cited by Reuters said that Iran had delivered both their demands and their reservations about US demands. Much of it sounds like the things we’ve already heard before and there are

The NASDAQ and S&P indices close at record levels Meeting between US and Iran may not take place until Monday Global Central Banks decisions highlight next week’s calendar: Market Volatility Ahead Earnings next week: Big Tech takes center stage Trump sends WItkopf and Kushner for talks with Iran. Vance is not going US Dept of

The week ahead is stacked with global central bank decisions and top-tier inflation and growth data, making it one of the most important macro weeks of the month. The Bank of Japan kicks things off, but the focus quickly shifts to a midweek cluster of Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions, followed by a “super

Scott Bessent in a WSJ interview speaks about the key economy and policy goals as he maneuvers through the Iranian war and other global economic hurdles.: Goal: Restore strong U.S. growth following war disruptions while keeping expansion intact Balance inflation vs. growth: Bring inflation down without choking economic expansion Lift real wages: Focus on improving

Earnings season so far has come in better than expected and broadly supportive for equities, helping push major indices back toward record highs despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Early reports show that roughly 80%–85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, a strong beat rate by historical standards, with profits tracking toward double-digit growth of

Via Reuters, ICYMI, the info that Asia crude imports on track for a 22% annual fall to a 10-year low in April as the Hormuz closure forces refinery run cuts. Diesel and jet fuel output losses seen at up to 2 million bpd. Summary Asia’s crude imports on track to fall 22% year-on-year to 20.4

Goldman Sachs estimates 57% of Gulf crude output was offline in April. A Hormuz reopening could restore most supply within months, but tanker shortages and well damage may slow recovery. (Reuters with the info) Summary Goldman Sachs estimates around 14.5 million bpd of Gulf crude output, roughly 57% of pre-war supply, was offline in April

The Department of Justice is expected to drop its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as soon as today, ABC News reports. (Update: It’s now confirmed) Senator Thom Tillis said he wouldn’t advance the nomination of Kevin Warsh so long as the probe remained open. Other Republican Senators were also strongly against it.

Canada retail sales came in a bit softer on the surface, but the underlying details were more constructive. Headline sales rose +0.7% vs +0.9% expected, but the prior month was revised higher to +1.2% from +1.1%. Ex-autos, sales increased +0.5% vs +0.8% expected, with the prior also revised up to +1.0% from +0.8%. So while

CNN is reporting that the special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the US in the talks in Pakistan this weekend. VP Vance is not going because neither is Ghalibaf, but he does remain on stand-by. The X post from CNN’s Alayna Treene Scoop: Trump is sending his special envoy Steve Witkoff and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been gradually strengthening since Tuesday as the US-Iran stalemate led to some profit-taking on bearish dollar bets. There’s still no clear sign of a second round of talks after Iran refused to send a delegation to Islamabad on Tuesday due to the US blockade in the Strait of

There are just a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance and may not feature much into play. That especially if the trading mood in Europe today follows the same theme as

We have said very clearly that, given the situation in the Middle East, we are ready to intervene We have a greater willingness to intervene We have observed since the start of the conflict that the franc has lost value There is no market reaction to this headline, as the Swiss isn’t under any particular

This couple of headlines from a Asia One news correspondent is doing the rounds and giving broader market sentiment a lift at the momen: More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prelim was 47.6 Prior was 53.3 Details: Conditions 52.5 vs 50.1 prelim (55.8 in March) Expectations 48.1 vs 46.1 prelim (51.7 in March) 1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.8% prelim (Prior was 3.8%) 5-year inflation 3.5% vs 3.4% prelim (Prior was 3.2%) This is a modest recovery from the preliminary survey, likely as oil came down

National inflation data from Japan for March 2026 is due. Tokyo’s March consumer price data, released three weeks ago, offers a useful early read on the national figures due today. Headline inflation in the capital came in at 1.4% year-on-year, easing from 1.5% in February and touching its softest level since March 2022. The core

Prior 86.4; revised to 86.3 Current conditions 85.4 vs 86.2 expected Prior 86.7 Outlook 83.3 vs 85.0 expected Prior 86.0; revised to 85.9 That is the lowest such reading since October 2022 as German business sentiment tumbles amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Adding to that, the outlook/expectations index also falls to its

Trump to address top $TRUMP meme coin holders at Mar-a-Lago crypto summit Saturday 25 Apr. Israel UN envoy warns Lebanon ceasefire extension “not 100%” despite White House deal Goldman Sachs: Gulf crude production may mostly rebound quickly after Hormuz opens ICYMI: Iran war forces Asia refiners to slash runs, putting diesel and jet supply at

Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6% Retail sales +1.7% vs +1.3% y/y expected Prior +2.5%; revised to +1.8% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.7% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +3.4%; revised to +2.7% The reading is much better than expected but

The Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) released by the Bank of Japan measures the prices of services traded among companies. It presents price developments that reflect most sensitively the supply and demand conditions in the services market. It is also considered as an indicator for inflationary pressures. — At the margin, yen bullish. This article

US initial jobless claims 214K vs 210K expected US April S&P Global services index 51.3 vs 50.3 expected “Don’t rush me” Trump says when asked about Iran Trump says Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is Trump says he orders attack on any boat placing mines in Strait of

BOJ set to hold at 0.75% on 27-28 April but signal June hike readiness. Growth forecasts to be cut, inflation revised up sharply as Iran war energy shock fans second-round price risks. Summary BOJ widely expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0.75% at the April 27-28 meeting Board set to cut its

Before the Middle East conflict, this April meeting was meant to be one where the BOJ delivers on another rate hike after the outcome of the spring wage negotiations. Instead, the war has complicated things and raised uncertainty to the point where policymakers don’t feel comfortable in rushing a decision – for now at least.

Trump to deliver keynote remarks at a crypto conference at Mar-a-Lago at 12:00 EDT/16:00 GMT Saturday April 26. Attendance strictly limited to top 297 holders of the $TRUMP meme coin. Trump will deliver keynote remarks at a cryptocurrency conference at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida at 12:00 EDT / 16:00 GMT on Saturday April 26 The

For all the noise we’re seeing in the past few days, the fact remains that the US and Iran are unable to arrange a second meeting in Pakistan. Iran continues to maintain a hard line in saying that they will not want to sit down and talk as long as they are being threatened. In

Prior 89 French household sentiment worsened significantly in April with this being the lowest reading since May 2023. Of note, households’ opinion regarding their personal financial situation, both past and future, has clearly deteriorated. The index on the future financial situation fell to -20, marking its lowest estimate since March 2023. Inflation worries are evidently

Israel’s UN Ambassador Danon tells CNN the Lebanon ceasefire extension is “not 100%,” warning Hezbollah is firing rockets to sabotage the truce and the Lebanese government cannot control the group. (CNN/Truth Social). Summary: Trump announced via Truth Social that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has been extended by three weeks following an Oval Office meeting The meeting

Trump announces Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended three weeks (earlier news on this here) after Oval Office talks. Wednesday was a deadly day in Lebanon with five killed including a journalist. This despite the April 16 truce. Summary Ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel extended by three weeks following a White House meeting hosted by Trump Lebanese and

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan core CPI rose 1.8% y/y in March, matching forecasts but staying below BOJ’s 2% target for a second month. Iran war energy shock seen pushing inflation higher in coming months. Summary Japan CPI (March 2026): Headline rate 1.5% y/y (prior 1.3%) Core CPI (Ex-Food) 1.8% y/y (vs. expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%) Core-core CPI (Ex-Food

Japan FinMin Katayama warns of rising oil price speculation and vows decisive action in coordination with the US. Currency swap lines with Washington remain unchanged. Summary FinMin Katayama flagged a visible increase in speculative activity linked to oil prices Vowed decisive action on speculation, citing an existing agreement with the US as the basis Stressed

Japan inflation data for Match 2026. Headline rate 1.5% y/y (prior 1.3%) Core CPI (Ex-Food) 1.8% y/y (vs. expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%) Core-core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy) 2.4% y/y (prior 2.5%), slowest rise since December 2024 I’ll post separately on details and BOJ/yen implications. – A few weeks ago we had March Tokyo CPI: Tokyo

Axios is out with a report saying that Iran has deployed more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “a US official and a source with knowledge of the issue.” That shines some light on Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social that said: I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump threatens fresh UK tariffs unless London drops its 2% digital services tax on large US tech platforms. The levy raises £800m annually and has survived prior UK-US trade talks. Trump has threatened tariffs on the UK unless it scraps its Digital Services Tax The DST is a 2% levy on revenues from large digital

I have no idea whether the US is lying about Iran’s negotiators fracturing or if Iran is lying. Either way, it’s not the kind of thing that should be happening on the way to peace. Here’s the message from the Supreme Leader, who is said to have lost a leg and had his face burned.

Trump’s explicit warning that Americans should brace for higher fuel costs carries meaningful inflationary implications. Energy prices feeding through to transport, logistics and consumer goods risk embedding a fresh layer of inflation at the margin, complicating the Fed’s rate path and pressuring household real incomes. The broader concern for markets is that a prolonged Hormuz

Trump says the Israel – Lebanon ceasefire will be extended by three weeks. Social media post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

“Don’t rush me,” President Trump says when asked about Iran. “So were in Vietnam for 18 years. Iraq, many, many years….I’ve been doing this for…six weeks.” For what it’s worth, this is week nine. Trump says he has been speaking with Iran and they want a deal We got rid of the Iranian leadership.. and

I’m not sure if this is reflective of Trump doing his usual raging at the media or a sign that he’s increasingly hawkish. The market hasn’t taken it badly. For those people, fewer in number now than ever before, that are reading The Failing New York Times, or watching Fake News CNN, that think that

Prior 97 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We are into the heart of earnings season and a few companies reported today that are solid bellwethers for the economy. There are positive signs of momentum so I wanted to highlight a few: Matt Flannery, President & CEO, United Rentals On overall demand and the year ahead: “The momentum we’re carrying into our busy

Trump posts on Truth Social: I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no

The S&P 500 just hit a fresh record high. Futures had been down more than 50 points at one time but the S&P 500 is now up 5 points to 7143 and the Nasdaq is close to unchanged. In Europe, it’s been more of a struggle as oil prices stay elevated (Brent up $1.36 today

Pakistan has proposed opening the Strait in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions on Iran Trump cited Iran’s “fractured” leadership as the reason for extending the ceasefire but yesterday the White House said they knew they were negotiating with the right people. Now there’s this report and it adds up: Iran has insisted on peace

Risk trades are diving on a report from N12 about Ghalibaf leaving the negotiating team. N12 is the digital news brand of Keshet 12, an Israeli free-to-air television channel If anyone in the market was still holding out hope for a diplomatic off-ramp in the Middle East, it might be time to worry. We just

The euro is under broad pressure from geopolitical and growth headwinds, with large option expiry clusters the primary near-term anchor against a sharper selloff. Most EUR pairs trading heavy, weighed by Middle East standoff and growth concerns ECB on hold amid economic uncertainties; Germany has halved its growth forecasts Significant option expiry support: E14.2 billion

Traders ready to jump at shadows. And to hit stops 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The findings underscore the degree to which currency volatility, amplified by the Iran war, has become a primary risk management concern for Australian businesses and institutional investors. The sharp divergence in hedging behaviour between large and small corporates highlights a structural vulnerability, with smaller businesses carrying materially greater exposure to adverse AUD moves. For super

Headlines: The fragile optimism in markets hangs in the balance Gold remains under pressure amid US-Iran stalemate; traders await new catalysts The single chart for bitcoin long term investors shows bulls are fine Japan finance minister Katayama delivers another intervention warning France April flash services PMI 46.5 vs 48.5 expected Germany April flash manufacturing PMI

US crude stocks rose 1.9m barrels vs a 1.0m draw expected, driven by higher imports and weaker exports. However, gasoline (-4.6m) and distillate (-3.4m) draws signal firm demand, keeping the broader oil market backdrop supportive. From data published Wednesday morning US time. Earlier: Commodity traders reap billions as Iran war drives oil market volatility (ps.

Prior was 208K (revised to 207K) 4 week moving average of initial jobless claim 210.75K vs 210.0K last week Continuing claims 1,821M vs 1.820M expected Prior week 1.809M (revised from 1.818M) The data continues to show steady – no hire/no fire? – employment trends. Looking at the continuing claims, the advance number for seasonally adjusted

This from yesterday about US forces taking Itanian tankers in Asia: Maritime crackdown widens against Iran-linked shipping. Oil tanker seized in Indian Ocean Reuters have further now, in brief: Summary: US forces intercept and redirect multiple Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters At least 29 vessels ordered to turn back under expanding maritime blockade Strait

Trump on Truth Social: Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the “Hardliners,” who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the “Moderates,” who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY! We have total control over

Market expectations for BoE interest rate hikes have increased following the release of the latest UK flash PMIs. The survey showed an acceleration in economic activity in April alongside a record-breaking surge in business costs. The agency noted though that “the improved rate of expansion is in part a reflection of a short-term boost from

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has come under renewed pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s refusal to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the losses were then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to

We have a “free hand” in conducting interventions Our deputies in US, Japan are in close contact on forex matters All we can say is that past interventions have made an impact The warning here isn’t anything new and it comes as we see USD/JPY inch closer towards the 160 mark once again this week.

Prior 52.2 Services PMI 46.9 vs 50.4 expected Prior 50.9 Composite PMI 48.3 vs 51.2 expected Prior 51.9 The US-Iran war is clearly weighing on economic activity as growth slows down further while inflation rises. The composite PMI fell into contraction for the first time since May 2025. The agency notes: “The recovery in the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has come under renewed pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s refusal to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the losses were then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to

Australia S&P Global PMI composite (April 2026 preliminary): 50.1 (prior 46.6) Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (prior 49.8) Services PMI: 50.3 (prior 46.3) New orders fall again, highlighting weak domestic demand Cost inflation hits highest since Aug 2022 on fuel, freight surge Australia’s private sector returned to growth at the start of the second quarter, though the

Prior was 49.8 Manufacturing 54.0 vs 52.5 expected – -highest since May 2022 Prior manufacturing 52.4 Composite 52.0 vs 50.5 expected Composite prior was 51.4 Employment basically flat for a second month Input cost inflation at an 11-month high Output prices rising at the fastest pace since July 2022 This is a two-month high in

Tesla just released Q1 results and the headline is a clean beat on the bottom line, with a revenue miss that nobody is going to care about. Here’s the scorecard: Adjusted EPS: $0.41 vs. $0.34 expected — a 21% beat GAAP EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.12 a year ago Revenue: $22.39B vs. $22.64B expected — a

As oil prices continue to move up, there was a surprising rally in US stocks yesterday. But after some fake news chatter overnight, that is putting a dampener on the risk mood as we get into the new day. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% with the cautious optimism this week being uncovered to

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The manufacturing PMI data for April earlier reflected a good uptick in overall business activity. However, it belies the underlying situation as the “better” conditions were largely driven by firms bringing forward orders. The frontloading is mostly due to wanting to obuild safety stocks in anticipation of rising prices and supply constraints. The latest CBI

New Zealand Finance Minister on Iran war, Treasure forecastd: inflation could hit 7.4% in 25/26 under worst case scenario real GDP growth at 0.8% in 2025–26 under worst case scenario forecasts unemployment at 5.7% in 2025/26 under worst case scenario of oil at $180/barrel Adds: New Zealand economic recovery is delayed, not derailed High/y unlikely

Trump has not set a timeline for the extension of the ceasefire – report Iran President: Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to talks Trump touts that Iranian women he asked to be released won’t be executed Iran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: Complete ceasefire only makes sense without blockade US EIA weekly crude

Summary: Gold edges higher after hitting a two-week low, with bargain-hunting emerging Iran tensions persist as maritime incidents and US blockade continue Ceasefire extension tempers immediate escalation and oil shock risks Dollar direction remains key driver, competing with safe-haven demand Prices consolidate below resistance, with downside levels in focus Gold prices edged (barely) higher on

Prior was +0.4% m/m PPI +7.8% y/y vs 5.4% prior Raw materials price index +12.0% m/m vs +0.6% prior Raw materials price index +23.6% y/y vs +8.6% prior That’s not great on the PPI headline but downright scary on the raw materials price index. It’s not a big surprise given gasoline prices but that’s a

AI-linked stocks now account for nearly 45% of the S&P 500, up from ~25% in 2022, per Goldman Sachs. Strong earnings and momentum have driven concentration in mega-cap tech, increasing both upside potential and vulnerability to sentiment shifts. Summary: AI-linked stocks now account for ~45% of S&P 500, per Goldman Sachs Weighting has surged from

Bloomberg reported on commodity trading firms reaping gains. If these firms are not doing so at times like this they are not doing thier jobs. Summary: Major commodity traders post strongest profits since Ukraine war boom Dislocations in physical oil markets drive exceptional margins Reports of $20–$30 per barrel trading profits highlight extreme conditions Near-closure

The PMI data from the euro area today shows a significant contrast. While the industry sector held up in April, albeit with a caveat, the services sector struggled due to softer demand conditions amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Higher energy prices is starting to bite at both the French and German economies

Prior 48.8 Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 49.5 expected Prior 50.0 Composite PMI 47.6 vs 48.6 expected Prior 48.8 French economic activity is seen contracting at its quickest pace in 14 months as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to bite at Europe’s second largest economy. That comes despite some positive news from the

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD with a heavy chunk layered between 1.1650 to 1.1700. As things stand, US-Iran headline risks continue to drive the market mood and dollar/trading sentiment along with it. That is the tail wagging