December trade data from China headlines the economic and event calendar in Asia today. A couple of things to keep in mind: The time of release is scheduled for 0300 GMT, which is 2200 US Eastern time. The trade data does not necessarily get published on time, so if you are awaiting it it’ll pay […]

U.S. December budget deficit was $145B, versus $150B expected and $87B in December 2024 U.S. December budget outlays were $629B, up from $541B in December 2024 – Treasury U.S. December budget receipts were $484B, down from $454B in December 2024 U.S. December net customs receipts were $27.89B U.S. fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit is $602B, compared

Summary: Japan stocks extend rally on snap election speculation Nikkei breaks above 54,000 for first time Markets price fiscal stimulus and stopgap budget risk Yen weakens past 159, lowest since July 2024 FX jawboning fails to slow equity-yen dynamic Japanese equities extended their rally on Wednesday, pushing further into record territory as speculation mounted that

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The U.S. dollar is pushing higher, led by USDJPY, which is up 0.55% and once again setting the tone for the broader FX market. In the video above, I walk through the technical picture for USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and AUDUSD, focusing on bias, risk, and targets. USDJPY USDJPY is making another run above the January

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to consolidate inside a rising wedge as traders await new catalysts and a breakout on either side. The market maintains a bullish bias amid strengthening US economy and the Fed’s dovish reaction function. Yesterday, we got a brief drop following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the

Prior was +2.7% CPI M/M +0.3% vs 0.3% expected Prior +0.3% Core CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.7% expected Prior +2.6% Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% US Supercore CPI M/M +0.29% vs +0.35% prior We have a dovish surprise here as Core CPI figures came on the lower end of the forecasts.

The EURUSD ended last week leaning against an important swing area between 1.16125 and 1.1615, closing Friday near 1.1633, just above that support zone. That close left the pair sitting in a technically sensitive area — not broken lower, but not yet strong enough to confirm a sustained upside breakout either. In early Asia-Pacific trading,

Trump said on Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran’s officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on its way. For some context, the protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic’s authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by

August New Home sales 0.800M October New home sales 0.737M vs 0.7200 estimate September new home sales was 0.738M The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months. Median new-home price: $392,300, down 3.3% from September

Summary: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams says no urgency to change Fed rates Describes policy stance as “in a good place” Says calm markets reflect uncertainty, not complacency Economic conditions seen as quite favorable Emphasises continuity regardless of Fed leadership Earlier: Fed’s Williams says policy near neutral, sees inflation back at 2%

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem has laid out his baseline scenario for 2026: the U.S. economy could grow at or above-potential, the labor market should stabilise around current levels, and the central bank has likely reached the neutral level. Musalem’s comments suggests that he’s satisfied with the current restrictive-to-neutral policy and doesn’t see the

The USD higher vs the JPY (+0.46%) and little changed vs the EUR and GBP to start the US session. The CPI data will take focus when it is released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for the headline to rise by 0.3% versus 0.3% last month. The core is also expected to rise

USD/JPY is surging still. Do we pencil in January 19 for Bank of Japan intervention? Japan steps up FX warnings, Tokyo jawboning returns, but yen reaction limited Japan govmt spokesperson says ready to respond on sharp, one-sided yen weakness Oil rises as geopolitics clash with new supply; Iran tensions vs. Venezuela exports Nikkei hits record

The US stock market unveiled a mixed tapestry today, with significant variances across sectors driving market dynamics. As financial giants felt the heat, the technology sector, led by AMD and Google, displayed notable resilience. Sector Overview Financial Sector: The financial sector experienced pressure, especially in credit services. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) fell significantly, down

USDCAD moved lower today after the U.S. CPI report came in slightly softer than expected, adding pressure to the dollar and reinforcing the short-term downside bias in the pair. From a technical perspective, the pair fell back below its 100-hour moving average at 1.38706, giving sellers another modest but important victory in the near term.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After some weakness following the US capture of President Maduro, crude oil rose to new highs as the market focus switched quickly from Venezuela to Iran. The protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic’s authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by a catastrophic currency collapse,

This is just a data post, I’ll have the details in a separate post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US NFIB 99.5 vs 99.2 expected Prior 99.0 Full report here The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52-year average of 98, as reported by the agency. The Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024. NFIB Chief

Summary: US convenes finance ministerial on critical minerals Focus on rare earths and supply chain vulnerabilities Allies back diversification and resilience push Emphasis on derisking rather than decoupling Signals coordinated policy and investment approach The United States stepped up its push to secure global supplies of critical minerals on Monday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott

The US Core CPI surprised to the downside today giving silver another boost as the market firmed up rate cuts expectations. Last month’s report was taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues, but today’s report confirmed the easing seen in the prior month. Silver continues to benefit from strong tailwinds like

It is reported that she has conveyed to a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house, which could set up for a snap election in either early or the middle of February. The next ordinary Diet session is scheduled for 23 January and that is the timing in which Takaichi is

U.S. private employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week The pace of job gains edged up from the prior week (revised to 11.K from 11.0K last week) . These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data are added. Below is a look at the trend since October. The values are near

Summary: Williams says Fed policy now closer to neutral Inflation risks easing; job market downside risks rising US growth seen at 2.5%–2.75% in 2026 Inflation expected to return to 2% in 2027 No near-term urgency for further rate cuts New York Fed President John Williams signalled a steady hand on policy, saying rates are near

Summary: Japan spokesperson warns of “one-sided” sharp FX moves Repeats readiness to act against excessive volatility Follows Katayama’s earlier Washington jawboning Yen response limited; USD/JPY remains elevated Weak yen still supports record-high Nikkei Japanese officials renewed verbal warnings over yen weakness late Monday (US time), but the market reaction was limited, with traders largely keeping

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The US CPI report might be the main event on the agenda today. But for stocks, keep a close watch on key earnings releases this week as we get into that time of the quarter once again. The big banks will kick things off and for today, we’ll have JP Morgan and Bank of New

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

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Nasdaq Technical Analysis: The compression points to big moves once we get a breakout US small business optimism rises to a 3-month high on expected better economic conditions What is the distribution of institutional forecasts for the US CPI? What Is MT4 – A Beginner’s Guide to MetaTrader 4 Trading Crude oil extends gains as

KEY POINTS: Japanese PM Takaichi weighs calling snap election to restore LDP majority US DOJ subpoena renewed Fed independence worries and weighed on the dollar Japanese data not pointing to any urgent action on monetary policy US CPI in focus today USDJPY rises to the highest level since July 2024 FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US

We had some earlier too: Japan’s Katayama warns on weak yen in talks with US Treasury, invokes Bessent’s name I’ll come back with more detail on a separate post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10 year note of the top of the hour. The six-month average as of the major components will be compared to the actual results to determine relative strength or weakness of the auction. The 6 month averages shows: Tail 0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.51X Directs

Well, if something can’t go up on good news.. there’s bound to be trouble up ahead. And the Japanese yen is quickly finding that out already with another drop today that sends it to a one-year low against the US dollar. I warned about the situation yesterday already here: The dollar isn’t the only major

Morgan Stanley forecasts headline inflation to come in at 0.37% m/m and 2.7% y/y as we look to the US December CPI report later today. The former is a little hotter than the 0.3% expected estimate with headline annual inflation matching estimates and the November reading at 2.7%. As for core inflation though, the firm

The firm notes that the dollar’s safe haven status in the short-term has been undermined by a myriad of factors as we get into the new year. Of note, a steady flow of US-initiated geopolitical surprises as well as Trump’s clear preference for wanting lower interest rates are creating a major headwind for the currency.

Trump: Effective immediately, any country doing business with Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with United States of America Just the headline at this stage, I’ll post more detail separately. Iran’s biggest trading partners: China (imports a great deal of oil from Iran) UAE

Gold and silver surge as Fed uncertainty ignites safe-haven demand US Treas Sec Bessent: Federal investigation made a mess, and could be bad for markets EURUSD Technical Analysis: Key moving averages define the next breakout U.S. Treasury auctions off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.173% U.S. Treasury will auction

Summary: Nikkei and Topix surge to record highs Markets play catch-up with Wall Street rally Early election speculation boosts fiscal hopes Weak yen lifts exporters; Katayama comments fade Global risk appetite outweighs Fed concerns Japanese equities surged to record highs on Tuesday as markets played catch-up with Wall Street’s recent rally and investors leaned into

Gold and silver are surging in dramatic fashion today, fueled by a powerful mix of political uncertainty, central-bank demand, and technical momentum. Gold is currently up $94, or 2.09%, at $4,603, while silver has jumped $5.15, or 6.44%, to $85.04. Both metals are on pace for record closes, reflecting an aggressive wave of safe-haven buying

Takaichi administration’s responsible, proactive fiscal policy takes into account fiscal discipline It does not mean reckless spending Cannot say that fiscal policy alone is what determines market developments Forex rates are determined by various factors Long-term interest rates are also determined by various factors in the market Need to carefully see various factors including sustainability

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. The pair is not up to much today, with the dollar steadying now after a slight drop in the day before. The drag from Trump’s attack on Fed independence isn’t

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of central bank speakers. The session will likely be characterised by a rangebound price action as the market awaits the US CPI release. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we get the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Summary: Trump announces 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran Measure declared effective immediately, with no details provided China, UAE, India and Turkey among Iran’s key partners Raises risk of higher costs for Chinese goods entering US Adds fresh uncertainty to global trade and geopolitics Trump unveiled a sweeping 25% tariff threat on countries trading

Summary: Fitch flags Fed independence as key U.S. rating support Agency monitoring governance and institutional checks closely Comments follow Trump administration pressure on Powell S&P also warns Fed credibility underpins U.S. rating Central bank independence seen as systemic credit anchor Ratings agencies have drawn a clear line around Federal Reserve independence, warning it remains central

Eyes and ears open for New York Fed President John Williams speaking. Williams is perceived as a close ally of Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Scheduled to give keynote remarks at a Council on Foreign Relations event starting at 6 p.m. US Eastern time. Japanese markets reopen today after a long weekend. The latest news from

Silver Technical Analysis: orderFlow Intel Signals Early Bearish Continuation After Failed Rally Silver futures delivered a dramatic upside move earlier this week, but recent price behavior suggests the market has shifted into a more cautious phase. This silver technical analysis breaks down what changed, why it matters, and how traders can frame a silver price

Summary: Katayama raises concerns over weak yen with Washington Says one-sided FX moves unacceptable Confirms bilateral meeting with US Treasury’s Bessent Yen strengthens following verbal intervention Officials signal tolerance for weakness is limited The yen strengthened after Finance Minister Katayama signalled renewed concern over the currency’s weakness, confirming she had raised the issue directly with

Summary: USD/JPY extends gains despite repeated jawboning Katayama and government warnings fail to shift FX Record Nikkei boosts tolerance for weak yen Intervention risk tied to disorderly moves, not levels Thin-liquidity periods seen as risk windows … I’m eyeing January 19 for direct intervention risk The continued surge in USD/JPY despite multiple rounds of official

Summary: Oil settles at seven-week highs, extending mid-January rally Iran export risks support prices amid protest crackdown Venezuela supply return caps upside Russia, Azerbaijan add background supply risk Volatility dominates despite surplus outlook Oil climbed as Iran-related supply risks outweighed expectations of returning Venezuelan barrels, gains seen since mid-last week. Oil prices climbed to their

Summary: Williams declines comment on Fed investigations Describes Powell as leader of “impeccable integrity” Warns eroding Fed independence leads to bad outcomes Reaffirms confidence inflation will return to 2% Fed officials close ranks amid political pressure New York Fed President John Williams forcefully defended Fed independence, backing Chair Powell and warning political interference would damage

Summary: UK consumer spending fell sharply in December Barclays card data shows biggest drop since 2021 Retail sales growth slows to weakest pace since May Shoppers delayed purchases awaiting discounts Outlook hinges on inflation easing and BoE cuts UK consumers pulled back sharply on spending in December, adding to signs that household caution intensified into

Summary: Bank of Korea (BoK) seen holding base rate at 2.50% on January 15 Won weakness and inflation risks limit easing scope Central bank signals end of easing cycle Seoul housing prices complicate policy outlook Next rate cut pushed back to 2027 South Korea’s central bank is expected to extend its policy pause this week,

Silver Futures Surge 8%+, But Key Levels Now Matter More Than Momentum Silver futures delivered a powerful upside session, opening with a clear gap higher and extending the rally throughout the day. At the time of writing, silver is trading near 85.93, up roughly 8.3% on the session, making this one of the strongest daily

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. The previous close was 6.9733 more to come Injects 358.6bn yuan, 7-day RRs, @1.4% This article was written

Summary: Business confidence jumps to highest level since 2014 Firms’ own activity stabilises as recovery takes shape Hiring and investment intentions turn decisively positive Manufacturing leads rebound; construction remains weakest Inflation pressures contained despite improving demand Business confidence in New Zealand has jumped to its strongest level in more than a decade, according to the

Summary: Consumer sentiment slips further into pessimistic territory Rate expectations jump, weighing on confidence Near-term economic outlook deteriorates most sharply Job confidence softens, housing sentiment steadier Mixed backdrop for upcoming RBA decision Australian consumer confidence slipped further into pessimistic territory at the start of 2026, with the latest Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey showing households growing more

Summary: Williams highlights resilience of New York and US economy Reaffirms dollar’s role as global reserve currency Says global finance requires some coordination Defends Fed’s rate-control and reserve framework Confident inflation can return to 2% Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams struck an upbeat tone on the strength of the U.S. economy

The S&P and Dow are both closing at record levels despite concerns of Fed independence and geopolitical concerns with Iran increasing. The Dow is closing the day up 86.13 points or0.17% at 48590.20. The S&P is up 10.99 points or0.16% at 6977.27. The Nasdaq is closing up 62.56 points or 0.26% at 23733.90. The all-time

Axios is reporting that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent privately warned President Trump that the federal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell had “made a mess” and risked destabilizing financial markets. According to the report, Bessent did not challenge the need for a full investigation, but he made clear that the timing and political optics were

The U.S. Treasury auctions off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of High yield 4.173% vs 4.169% last WI level at the time of the auction 4.181% Tail -0.7 basis points vs 6 month average of 0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.51X Directs 24.5%

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The greenback weakened across the board today following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalates the ongoing conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates faster. The official reason is that the DOJ is focusing on

The December payrolls number was on the softer side but the unemployment rate dropped back a little to 4.4% (unrounded 4.375%). The latter seems to be enough to convince some market analysts that the labour market is at least holding up as we get into the new year, with the Fed likely not too much

S&P 500 down -0.43% Nasdaq down -0.39% Dow Jones down -0.62% Russell down -0.56% The US Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalated the ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve. The DOJ is trying to find whether Powell made misleading or false statements to the

CNBC reported that Apple entered into a multi-year partnership with Google’s Gemini to power its AI features like Siri. “After careful evaluation, we determined that Google’s technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and we’re excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for our users” Apple wrote. Google’s Gemini became

In a report on Monday, Goldman Sachs is expecting 10-year Treasury yields to rise to 4.40% by the end of 2026 citing a US economy which will continue to stay underpinned. The firm anticipates US economic growth to hit 2.3% and that will see it keep above the 2% long-term trend. Adding that more robust

There are just a couple to take note of on the list for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered from 1.1650 through to 1.1700. The pair remains on a descending trend since the turn of the year and the expiries will add a layer to keep price

Summary: UK and Germany are leading talks on boosting European and NATO military presence in Greenland. Germany plans to propose a NATO Arctic mission, Arctic Sentry, modelled on Baltic Sentry. Move aims to undercut Trump’s argument that the US must control Greenland for security. European concern has intensified after recent US military action in Venezuela.

Sector Overview The stock market snapshot today shows a divergent trend across sectors with consumer defensive stocks outperforming the rest. Walmart (WMT) surged by 2.05%, leading the pack in the discount stores category. This resilience in consumer staples suggests heightened investor confidence in defensive stocks amidst market uncertainty. On the other hand, the financial sector

Summary: Powell says DOJ threatened criminal indictment Grand jury subpoenas served on Friday Issue linked to Senate testimony on Fed renovation Powell calls move unprecedented and political Raises concerns over Fed independence Powell responding to Trump’s latest slimy attack: NYT: Federal prosecutors open probe into Fed chair Powell amid renovation scrutiny Powell says Justice Department

Summary: UK hiring fell for a 39th straight month in December Permanent placements declined at the fastest pace in four months Starting salaries rose at the strongest rate since May Payroll tax rises continue to weigh on recruitment BoE faces tension between weaker jobs data and wage pressures Britain’s labour market showed further signs of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver extended the gains into a new record high today following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve. This is just another attack on Fed independence as the White House continues to seek pretext to fire Fed Chair Powell. We have already seen this kind of intimidation with

If there’s one other takeaway from the backlash against the dollar amid Trump’s attack against Fed independence, it is that the Japanese yen has all but lost its allure as a haven asset and place of shelter for investors. In any other time when risk aversion hits and the dollar credibility/confidence is shaken, it would

The main news of the day today is the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalates the ongoing conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates faster. The official reason is that the DOJ is focusing on the renovation to see whether Powell

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The greenback weakened across the board today following the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented move that escalates the ongoing conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates faster. The official reason is that the DOJ is focusing on

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

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Headlines: Silver rallies to new all-time highs on renewed Fed independence worries Gold jumps to a new all-time high as the DOJ seeks a pretext to fire Fed Chair Powell Dollar stays on the backfoot amid unease over Fed independence The dollar isn’t the only major currency having a bad day European stocks pushed lower

It’s no wonder why precious metals continue to stay so bullish. Trump is making the headlines again to start the new week and in case you missed it: NYT: Federal prosecutors open probe into Fed chair Powell amid renovation scrutiny Fed Chair Powell calls out Trump on his witch hunt, part of ongoing threats against

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. The previous close was 6.9784. Injects 86.1bn yuan, 7-day RRS, 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The news broke that Trump is escalating his underhanded attacks on the Federal Reserve: NYT: Federal prosecutors open probe into Fed chair Powell amid renovation scrutiny Summary: NYT reports federal prosecutors have opened a probe involving Fed Chair Powell Specific allegations and scope are unclear from the headline alone Context includes intense political attacks over

Here’s a look at the major indices in Europe after the opening tussle: Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 -0.5% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX -1.0% Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% And here’s how US futures are shaping up as we get things going on the session: S&P 500 futures -0.7% Nasdaq futures -1.0%

Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence -1.8 vs -4.9 expected Prior -6.2 That marks the highest reading since July last year with a modest improvement seen especially in Germany. Sentiment towards Europe’s largest economy nudged up by 6.3 points to -16.4, with the expectations component in particular sending a positive signal with an increase of 6.8

Yuan’s rally lacks fundamental support despite 2025 gains, former SAFE regulator says US hosts G7 talks on rare earths to counter China’s supply dominance UK hiring weakens again as wage growth stays firm, complicating BoE outlook Trump threatens to block Exxon from Venezuela after CEO calls country uninvestable PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Eurozone Sentix index and the German Current Account balance. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB or the market, so the reaction will likely be muted. The

Summary: NYT reports federal prosecutors have opened a probe involving Fed Chair Powell Specific allegations and scope are unclear from the headline alone Context includes intense political attacks over Fed HQ renovation costs Powell previously requested an inspector general review of the project Any escalation could raise Fed-independence risk premia into the 2026 chair transition

Summary: Yuan rose 4.5% in 2025, its best year since 2020 Former SAFE official says gains lack fundamental backing Strength driven by weaker dollar demand, not inflows Falling REER does not imply undervaluation Disinflation and output gap argue against stronger yuan Yuan’s rebound lacks fundamental backing despite 2025 gains, former FX regulator warns. Info via

Summary: US hosting G7 ministerial talks on rare earths Aim is to reduce dependence on China-dominated supply chains Treasury Secretary Bessent to lead discussions Japan pushing issue amid China export curbs Focus on defence, tech and clean-energy minerals US to host G7 talks on rare earths as allies seek alternatives to China The United States

Summary: Trump says he may block Exxon from investing in Venezuela CEO Darren Woods called the country “uninvestable” Exxon cited past asset seizures and weak legal protections Tensions complicate US efforts to revive Venezuela’s oil sector Highlights gap between political goals and commercial risk – Trump threatens to block Exxon from Venezuela after CEO brands

Adam had the news on Friday: Japan’s Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-February More on this, summary: LDP lawmakers expect possible Lower House dissolution in late January Snap election could be held as early as February Takaichi citing inflation relief and economic impact as priorities Ruling bloc holds slim Lower House majority, Upper

US equity index futures are opening lower on Globex to begin the week’s trade. I guess I should come up with a narrative to ‘explain’, right? M’eh. The gap is small. If I had to pin it on anything it’d be the ratcheting higher of geopolitical tensions. But, I really wouldn’t bother too much. The

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. EUR/USD 1.1635 USD/JPY 158.09 GBP/USD 1.3398 USD/CHF 0.8011 USD/CAD 1.3911 AUD/USD 0.6681 NZD/USD 0.5731 Not too much movement from Later Friday levels.

Summary: Trump to receive formal briefing on Iran response options Measures include sanctions, cyber tools and possible strikes Pentagon has not repositioned forces yet Starlink internet access under consideration Risk of regional escalation remains high Wall Street Journal with the report, link. The United States is stepping up contingency planning for possible action against Iran,

Summary: France warns 2026 budget may be delayed past March elections Confidence votes next week threaten government survival Possible National Assembly dissolution if government falls Budget talks already late amid deficit concerns Political uncertainty weighs on fiscal credibility France budget risks delay as confidence votes threaten government stability France’s fragile fiscal outlook is back in

The PPI data listed on the calendar from Japan is not due today, its due on Wednesday 14 January 2026. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. The data from Australia is not likely to move Oz markets around much at all upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Japanese Holiday (Coming of Age Day); M2 & New Yuan Loans (Dec) Tue: EIA STEO; US NFIB (Dec), CPI (Dec) Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US PPI (Nov; Oct-cancelled), US Retail Sales (Nov) Thu: UK GDP Estimate (Nov), EZ Trade (Nov), US Export/Import Prices (Dec; Nov-cancelled), NY Fed Mfg survey (Jan), Weekly Claims (w/e 3rd

Summary: Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland. Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing. Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation. British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead

Summary: Trump calls for 10% credit-card APR cap for one year, effective Jan 20, 2026. No enforcement detail: unclear if voluntary or government-mandated. Part of a populist “affordability” burst this week (incl. MBS buying idea and ban on institutional home buyers). Big gap to current pricing: Fed data shows 22.30% (Nov 2025) on the key

US December non-farm payrolls +50K vs +60K expected Canada employment change 8.2K versus -5.0 K estimate Japan’s Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-February US October housing starts 1.246m vs 1.325m expected Fed’s Barkin: Today’s drop in the unemployment rate is welcome Fed’s Bostic says inflation is ‘a lot’ above the 2% target No

The White House is out with damage control after Trump leaked the jobs numbers late yesterday on Truth Social. “Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information. The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding

Friday was about the jobs report but the week ahead will see the market tilt towards earnings.. The S&P 500 is flirting with 7,000, yields are looking for direction, and the solid economy in 2026 narrative is crowded. The bank numbers and commentary will serve as a high-stakes health check on the US consumer—specifically if

Gold and silver have been volatile to start the year so far but the bulls have shown some impressive willingness to buy moderate dips. Now both are flirting with notable closes. Gold is attempting only its second-ever weekly close above $4500 after doing that on December 22 in holiday-thinned trading. Silver is attempting a weekly

Headlines from Barkin: Federal Reserve changes must be finely tuned to incoming data Both sides of central bank mandate face significant risks Unemployment remains at historic lows but has recently ticked up Inflation has decreased but still remains above 2% target Interest rates are now within range of neutral estimates No one wants labor market

The inflation story might have stolen the spotlight for quite a while in the past two years but come what may, there’s nothing quite like the US non-farm payrolls data. And now with the focus on the Fed outlook shifting back to the labour market, the report today will once again draw plenty of eyes

Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0% At the same time, we also have German trade balance data for November out as per below: Trade balance €13.1 billion vs €16.5 billion expected Prior €16.9 billion That’s a solid beat for German industrial output, largely owing to a positive development to growth in the automotive industry (+7.8%). Increases

The non-farm payrolls came in a bit softer than the whisper numbers, giving the “bad news is good news” crowd a reason to cheer. For the ECB, it doesn’t change much, but for equity bulls, it was the green light they needed to keep the momentum going. Here’s the closing scoreboard for the week ending

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

At a glance: Goldman expects ~70k payrolls, in line with consensus Two Fed cuts priced; first expected around late April 70k–100k seen as equity-friendly outcome Sub-50k risks growth scare; >125k may delay easing Volatility expectations remain subdued Goldman Sachs said the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is unlikely to materially shift market expectations for

It’s time for Fed not to lose sight of inflation mission Fed’s job and inflation mandates are somewhat in tension Need to be ‘laser focused’ on lowering inflation Inflation is ‘a lot’ above the 2% target No hire, no fire continues to be key labor market dynamic The job market has been cooler but it’s

Switzerland December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 3.0% vs 3.0% expected Prior 3.0% The reading meets estimates, so there’s nothing all too much to talk about. The number of registered unemployed persons did see a slight rise though to 147,275 people. And that is up from the 138,860 unemployed persons seen in November 2025. As for

Late yesterday, Trump posted this on Truth Social: The problem is, that number didn’t match up with what had been reported in the non-farm payrolls report data that had already been released. It also came after the Council of Economic Advisors was briefed on the jobs report (usually the afternoon before the release). The numbers

Final December reading was 53.3 1-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prior 5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.2% prior Current conditions 52.4 vs 50.7 prior Expectations 55.0 vs 54.6 prior This isn’t a great economic indicator as answers are increasingly politicized and the inflation numbers are volatile. There was a time when this was tier-2 economic

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to clock in at 75k in December, beating estimates with private payrolls hitting 80k. That being said, they estimate the unemployment rate to jump up to 4.7% after having risen to 4.6% (4.56% unrounded) in November. “Just as with the last few months, we would caution that seemingly stronger job

It’s the first ‘big day’ of the year in a year that feels much longer than 9-days already. The non-farm payrolls report is due at the bottom of the hour along with the Canadian jobs report. Before the report is released, read Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fog The

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a contentious battleground across various sectors. Technology sees mixed outcomes, with notable declines and slight advances within sub-sectors. Industrials and Healthcare, however, show promising resilience, driving up overall market sentiment. 📉 Tech Sector: Microsoft (MSFT) dropped by 0.44%, paving a cautious path for the broader tech landscape. Nvidia

Headlines: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Who’s got the most bullish NFP forecast this time around? Non-farm payrolls seen accelerating as unemployment rate holds steady – JP Morgan US payrolls to stay supported but unemployment rate seen increasing further – Citi Trump: I have cancelled previously expected second wave of

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may be looking to capitalize on high personal approval ratings and a honeymoon period to consolidate power in the lower house. A Yomiuri report says she’s mulling dissolving the lower house for a snap election in mid or mid-February. Takaichi became the first woman ever to lead Japan’s dominant ruling party

Key Takeaways for New Traders and Investors Headlines around trade and housing look negative, but markets often move before headlines change. Canada’s economy has shown unexpected resilience, especially consumer spending. Political and institutional stability matters more than most people realize for currencies. A single U.S. Supreme Court ruling could quietly reshape global capital flows in

The deal between Meta and Oklo Inc. aims at securing a massive supply of carbon-free energy to power Meta’s artificial intelligence infrastructure. The agreement centers on the development of a large-scale nuclear power campus in Pike County, Ohio. The project targets a total capacity of 1.2 gigawatts (GW). Meta will prepay for power and provide

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 54 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 1 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC: 13 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming

Prior was +64K (revised to +56K) October was -105K (revised to -173K) Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.5% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.6% Unrounded unemployment 4.375% vs 4.564% prior Participation rate 62.4% vs 62.5% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.4% vs 8.7% prior Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs

Before we go into the expected scenarios and what you may consider trading, here’s where you can watch it live when it starts! Supreme Court & Trump Tariffs: Watch Live Before it starts, here is a glimpse of the wisdom of the crowd and what the supreme court, in its view, will decide. Event Risk

KEY POINTS: Nasdaq price action remains rangebound but with a bullish bias Pullback in Fed support turned the focus heavily towards data Reaction to negative labour market data likely to reverse in 2026 as inflation remains a constraint for the Fed FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Since the peak in late October, the Nasdaq has been bouncing around

Oil has steadily climbed today, though not enough to recoup the losses on Tuesday and Wednesday. WTI crude is up $1.60 to $57.60, which is a nearly 3% gain and comes after yesterday’s decline to the lowest since December 17 and a threat of the five-year low set in December. It’s been a lively week

For InvestingLive.com Traders and Investors Date: January 9, 2026 Session: Pre-Market / Early US Session Asset: Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ) Nasdaq Futures Today: From Apparent Weakness to Structural Strength Earlier in the session, Nasdaq futures appeared vulnerable. Price briefly pushed below recent value, creating the impression that a bearish breakdown might be developing. That initial read,

At a glance: Goldman stays modestly pro-risk for 2026, but expects lower returns than recent years Tailwinds shift: less monetary impulse, more fiscal/regulatory support AI seen moving from capex to adoption/monetisation phase Valuations/risk premia look late-cycle, so earnings matter most Prefers equities over credit; OW Asia ex-Japan, UW Europe Goldman Sachs says global equities should

The waiting continues. The US Supreme Court works in mysterious ways. The announced on Tuesday that this would be a ‘decision day’ but the court always has a large number of decisions to make and they don’t pre-announce which one it will be. They technically have until June to make the tariff decision but because

The distribution of forecasts this time around has the headline number in a range of 19k to 155k. The most bullish end of the range comes from Jefferies, who forecast non-farm payrolls at 155k with private payrolls at 90k. At the same time, the firm also sees the unemployment rate dropping back down to 4.3%

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We got a small pullback in gold in the final part of the week following a couple of good US data. Overall, the market pricing didn’t change much but the chances for a cut in January fell further. The bullish momentum remains intact for now, but the US NFP report today could challenge

From the man himself: “Venezuela is releasing large numbers of political prisoners as a sign of “Seeking Peace.” This is a very important and smart gesture. The U.S.A. and Venezuela are working well together, especially as it pertains to rebuilding, in a much bigger, better, and more modern form, their oil and gas infrastructure. Because

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As such, that will keep market players focused on the main event later today. That being the US labour market report. It’s the first one for the new year and one that will be watched carefully as

The Canada December jobs statistics show: Employment change: 8.2 K vs -5.0K estimate, +53.6K prior Unemployment rate: 6.8% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.5% prior Full-time employment change: 50.2K vs -9.4k last month Part-time employment change: -42.0K vs 63.0K last momth Participation rate: 65.4% vs 65.1% last month Avg hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 3.7% vs 4.0% last

At a glance: Goldman survey shows 59% bearish on crude Most negative sentiment since April 2025 Oil seen as preferred short by record number Supply glut driven by OPEC+, US, Brazil, Guyana Geopolitics failing to offset oversupply concerns Goldman Sachs said institutional investor sentiment toward crude oil has turned sharply bearish, with positioning now close

At a glance: Commerzbank says UK-EU rapprochement optimism is premature Single-market access would require slow, conditional concessions Danske Bank sees sterling’s recent gains as overdone Weak UK growth may prompt further BoE easing Relative UK-eurozone outlook favours EUR over GBP Sterling’s recent gains may be running ahead of fundamentals, with analysts warning that optimism around

Key Takeaways for AMD Stock Investors (watch my video) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is trading below a broken multi-month channel, keeping the medium-term technical bias bearish. A confirmed bear flag breakdown from December remains active after a clean retest failure. AMD is showing relative weakness versus major indices, despite occasional short-term bounces. With earnings approaching

The U.S. dollar is moving to the upside, with the Dollar Index climbing to its highest level in about a month and notable strength against the JPY (up 0.45%). The greenback is also higher vs the other major currency pairs with USD up 0.11% vs the EUR and 0.19% vs the GBP. The AUDUSD is

Summary: China restricts rare-earth and magnet exports to Japan Move linked to Japan PM’s Taiwan-related remarks Restrictions extend beyond defence sector Nomura estimates $17bn potential annual impact Japan raises issue with G7, Washington meetings planned Flagged this earlier in the weeK China escalated tensions with Japan, bans exports of goods with potential military uses Updating

Prior 1.307m Building permits 1.412m vs 1.350m expected Prior 1.330m This is still old data as government shutdown in October delayed many key economic reports. The last report was in September where it showed housing starts falling to the lowest level since May 2025. There’s been persistent housing market weakness due to high mortgage rates

The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to show a growth of 75k in December, with private payrolls also matching that figure at 75k. Much like what Citi noted, JP Morgan also points to seasonal factors as underpinning the headline payrolls number: “The summer deceleration and subsequent acceleration bears some resemblance to last year, so there could

At a glance: Musk says China will dominate AI compute via power scale Electricity, not chips, seen as key AI bottleneck China cites infrastructure and energy advantages Domestic chip capabilities accelerating Beijing targets AI self-reliance by 2027 ICYMI, Elon Musk said China is on track to surpass all other countries in artificial-intelligence computing power, arguing

Just a post noting this data release. I’ll be back with detail in a separate post. Link here (added). China December 2025: CPI 0.8% y/y, close to a 3-year high expected 0.9%, prior 0.7% +0.2% m/m vs. expected 0%, prior -0.1% PPI -1.9% y/y expected -2.0%, prior -2.2% +0.2% m/m vs. expected +0.1%, prior 0.1%

China and economic data numbers. It always just tends to play out nicely for Beijing’s narrative and this is one of those times. Say what you want about the December CPI report earlier in the day but it kept the 2025 full-year CPI at 0%. As such, lawmakers and policymakers can attest to the claim

There was a distinct air of rotation in US stock markets on Thursday as chipmakers struggled and dragged down the Nasdaq while most other stocks were higher, some strongly so. This highlights the divergence: Within IT, the losers were some of the chip and memory names that rallied big earlier in the week. Western Digital

The overall market mood remains more pensive with investors keeping a close watch on the US jobs report later and potential court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. However, the mood in Europe this week has largely been more positive – not least being shielded from the tech slump yesterday as well. European stocks are pushing slight

Summary: Centeno highlights Europe’s structural uncertainty ECB seen as stabilising institutional anchor Risks shifting outside traditional banking system Emphasis on discipline, independence and consensus Interview avoids near-term policy guidance Mario Centeno, governor of Banco de Portugal (the country’s central bank) said Europe has entered a period of “structural uncertainty” marked by trade tensions, elevated sovereign

Summary: China CPI rose 0.8% y/y in December, a 34-month high Full-year CPI at 0.0%, avoiding outright deflation Food prices driving gains; pork drag easing Core inflation steady, property prices still deflationary Further monetary easing seen as likely China narrowly avoided outright deflation in 2025, with consumer inflation ending the year at its highest level

China avoids deflation in 2025 as inflation edges higher, easing still likely ECB vice-presidential hopeful Centeno flags “structural uncertainty” facing Europe Goldman says NFP unlikely to shift April Fed cut unless data sharply surprises China curbs rare-earth exports to Japan, Tokyo raises concerns with G7 and US China inflation hits near three-year high, but producer

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we the main highlights are the Swiss Unemployment Rate and the Eurozone Retail Sales data. These releases won’t change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted. Traders will also tread carefully into the American session where we will get the most important

Summary: China CPI rose 0.8% y/y, fastest since Feb 2023 Monthly CPI beat expectations at +0.2% PPI fell 1.9% y/y, easing but still deflationary Core inflation steady at 1.2% Weak demand and property stress remain key drags China’s consumer inflation accelerated in December to its fastest pace in nearly three years, while factory-gate prices remained

US posts smallest trade deficit since 2009 Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 5.4% vs 2.7% prior New York Fed survey sees rising one-year consumer inflation expectations, jobs angst US October wholesale inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expected US initial jobless claims 208K versus 210K estimate. Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fog

At a glance: Japan household spending rose 2.9% y/y in November Far above expectations for a decline Monthly spending jumped 6.2% m/m BOJ recently lifted rates to 30-year high Real wages still falling sharply Japanese household spending unexpectedly rebounded in November, offering a tentative sign of resilience in domestic demand even as real income pressures

Summary: Trump says he has ordered $200 bn in MBS purchases to lower mortgage rates Plan aims to compress mortgage spreads and reduce monthly payments Purchases would be linked to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac resources Proposal revives state-led intervention in housing finance markets Markets may view comments as political pressure on long-term rates Donald

Just a post noting this data release. Japanese Household Spending +6.2% m/m expected +2.7%, prior -3.5% I’ll be back with detail in a separate post. ADDED, here it is to check out: Japan household spending rebounds while real wages still lag, complicates BOJ outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: HSBC sees gold hitting $5,000/oz in H1 2026 on geopolitical and debt risks Bank cuts 2026 average forecast slightly to $4,587/oz Warns of deeper correction if Fed halts easing or risks fade Forecast range for 2026 seen at $3,950–$5,050 Longer-term forecasts raised for 2027, 2028, and 2029 HSBC said gold prices could surge as

The market focus for the data agenda ahead here in Asia – Pacific today, Friday, January 9, 2026, is the December inflation data due from China: due at 0130 GMT, which is 2030 US Eastern time The December inflation data will be closely watched for signs of whether the modest recovery in prices seen late

If the Supreme Court limits the President’s use of IEEPA in the Learning Resources case, the administration will certainly pivot to other legislative tools, as Bessent references here. But if those tools were as good as the IEEPA, they would have used them already. While IEEPA offers the broadest authority, the executive branch has several

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +60K (range +19K to +155K) November +64K Private consensus estimate +64K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.5% vs 4.6% prior Participation rate consensus 62.5% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 8.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.6% y/y vs +3.5% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior Avg weekly hours

Prior 0.0% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.4% Swiss inflation continues to hold rather flattish with there being no growth on the month-on-month reading as well. That continues to underscore a lack of any momentum in price pressures. The script has flipped on the SNB for quite a while now as the battle is now

Headlines: An early test for gold and silver ahead of the main event tomorrow US non-farm payrolls distortion to carry over to December report tomorrow? USDJPY remains confined in a range: traders eye US NFP tomorrow for key breakouts Trump says that US oversight of Venezuela could stay on for years Nvidia to require full

Summary: Goldman sees Chinese equities rising further in 2026 MSCI China +20%, CSI 300 +12% targeted Returns expected to be earnings-driven AI, exports and policy support key pillars Valuations seen as reasonable, flows supportive Goldman Sachs expects Chinese equities to continue rising through 2026, supported by artificial intelligence adoption, policy support and improving earnings momentum,

One year inflation expectations +3.4% vs +3.2% Three-year inflation unchanged at 3.0% Five year inflation unchanged at 3.0% Job-finding expectations hit record low Expectations of home price growth unchanged at 3% Perception of credit access fell Expectations of losing a job rose Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6% in November The mean

Sector Overview Today’s market landscape reveals a mixed bag of performances across various sectors. The technology sector, led by giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL), showed slight losses, with MSFT down 0.23% and ORCL slipping by 1.33%. In contrast, the semiconductor industry also faced a challenging day, highlighted by a 0.10% decline in Nvidia

Prior was +0.5% Wholesale trade sales -0.4% vs -0.2% exp It’s not clear whether we will get the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker but there should be a big rise in the Q4 data due to strong trade numbers earlier. This reading will be a small drag but it was mostly priced in. The US wholesale

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have a few important data releases although they most likely won’t be market-moving given the limited impact on monetary policy. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.0% prior. Inflation has been missing the SNB’s forecasts recently but the central bank continues to push back on

From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 8, up from 2.7 percent on January 5. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management,

80% of your job is to follow the central banks. They have an enormous influence on financial markets, and I would say they are responsible for most of market moves. A central bank can single handedly trigger or end a recession. When trying to know how an economy is performing, lots of new traders immediately

The US dollar reaction immediately after the October trade data was tepid, with about 10 pips of gains in USD/JPY but that’s since stretched to 35 pips. As I highlighted with the data, the trade beat will lead directly to higher GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter. The clearest example of that will be in

As a reminder, we are moving back to the regular scheduled programming in which the US non-farm payrolls data is released on the first real Friday of the month. The November report was plagued by data quality issues amid the longest US government shutdown, which eventually saw the report delayed to the middle of December.

Summary: Barclays urges selectivity in Chinese tech for 2026 Broad stimulus-driven gains seen in 2025 unlikely to repeat EV sector faces rising headwinds as tax incentives fade Preference for resilient revenue and AI-linked names Tencent, Trip.com and Alibaba cited as selective plays Barclays is urging investors to adopt a more selective approach to Chinese technology

USD trading quietly as FX volatility compresses sharply The USD is little changed on the day, with price action defined by very narrow, two-way trading ranges across the major currency pairs. Volatility has been squeezed to unusually low levels. The EURUSD is confined to just a 14-pip range, the GBPUSD has traded only 33 pips,

Prior was a deficit of $52.8B (revised to -48.1B) Goods trade balance -58.57B vs -77.69B prior You will see some big Q3 GDP forecast upgrades with this data. This is the payback from the front-run early in the year and it came in stronger than economists forecast. That led to about a 10 pip rise

Summary: PBOC rolls CNY 1.1tn via three-month outright reverse repos Structure uses fixed quantity, multi-price bidding Signals liquidity stability, not necessarily new net easing Supports early-year bond issuance and credit supply narrative Aligns with broader 2026 stance: keep liquidity ample — The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1-trillion-yuan (about 157 billion U.S.

If there’s one spot that investors should look to amid all the fiscal risks in most major economies and the de-dollarisation narrative, it’s Asia ex-Japan (AxJ). The US has its own set of issues and so does Europe, and with Japan also facing a power struggle between the government and central bank, there are clear

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past few days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report. The US data this week has been mixed. We got a soft ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday but a strong Services PMI yesterday. The ADP was good despite a slight

Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Jan 3) Initial claims: 208K, +8K vs last week (prior week revised up to 200K) Weekly revision: Last week revised +1K (199K → 200K) 4-week moving average: 211.8K, -7.3K vs prior week Notable: Lowest 4-week average since April 27, 2024, reinforcing underlying labor-market firmness Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending Dec

KEY POINTS: US dollar remains supported despite mixed US data Traders turn their focus to the US NFP report for the next direction Swiss CPI matches estimates, SNB seen on hold for a long time USD/CHF rises into a key resistance near the 0.80 handle FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been bouncing around

Summary: Rubio to meet Danish officials next week over Greenland tensions Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland alarms allies U.S. military option not ruled out, raising NATO concerns European leaders reaffirm Greenland’s sovereignty Greenland’s strategic value intensifies geopolitical fault lines U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed he will meet with Danish officials next

There’s always that certain sense of danger when it comes to consensus trades. And this one here to start the new year is no different. Everyone’s talking about commodities as we get into 2026 trading with plenty of focus and attention on gold and silver, especially after the surging rally in December. And after a

KEY POINTS: US dollar continues to bounce around as traders await the NFP report US data this week came out mixed Japanese wage data disappointed with traders slightly paring back rate hike bets USDJPY price action remains rangebound as we await new catalysts FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been bouncing around in the

Prior +0.1% PPI -1.7% vs -1.9% y/y expected Prior -0.5% It’s a beat on estimates but this is very much a lagging data point at best. The consumer price index (CPI) precedes this and outweighs this on inflation trends, so just take this as a supportive or secondary data. If excluding energy, producer prices were

Today, I’m taking a fresh look at Bitcoin futures as we move deeper into the start of year 2026. After two weeks where bulls briefly reclaimed control and enjoyed what I would call their moment of fame, the technical picture has shifted again. Bears are back in control, and the structure that is developing deserves

Summary: Japan real wages fell 2.8% y/y in November Sharp drop in bonus payments weighed on incomes Nominal wage growth slowed to 0.5% y/y Inflation stayed elevated at 3.3% Wage-inflation gap remains a key challenge complicating the Bank of Japan’s tightening path. Japan’s real wages fell sharply in November, marking the steepest decline since January

Introduction: What Is Options Trading? Options trading involves buying and selling contracts called options. These contracts give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset, such as shares, an index, or an ETF, at a specific price before a set date. Unlike just buying a stock or cryptocurrency, options

KEY POINTS: USD continues to bounce around as traders await the US NFP report US data has been mixed, macro outlook remains unchanged NZD bias still neutral given the lack of key economic reports RBNZ expected to deliver a rate hike by the end of the year FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been

There is arguably just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being a large one for USD/JPY at the 156.15 level. The pair has been seeing a lot of pushing and pulling all through the week, largely holding between 156 to 157 since Tuesday. The

It seems like Challenger published the report early again with job cuts in December 2025 totaling to 35,553, down 50% from the 71,321 layoffs announced in November. Compared to the previous December in 2024 (38,792), job cuts were down 8%. The total for December last year is the lowest monthly total since 25,885 cuts were

Data post only, I’ll have more detail in a separate post. Australia November 2025: Trade Balance +2,936mn expected +4900mn, prior +4,385mn Exports -2.9% m/m prior +3.4% Imports +0.2% m/m prior +2.0% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China warns battery makers on overcapacity risks in EV and energy storage sectors Japan 30-year JGB auction weakens as bid-to-cover drops and tail widens Trump wants strategic control of Venezuela oil industry to reshape markets, send oil to 50 Barclays urges selective approach to Chinese tech stocks in 2026 Goldman Sachs sees further China equities

Summary: China warns battery sector of rising overcapacity risks Industry ministry urges capacity optimisation and supervision EV and energy storage batteries under closer scrutiny Data-centre buildout has boosted demand but fuelled oversupply Solar sector cited as cautionary example China’s industry ministry has issued a fresh warning to battery manufacturers, urging firms to rein in capacity

Summary: U.S. considering plan to control Venezuelan state oil output and sales. Aim to influence global oil prices and curb Russia/China leverage. Strategy includes partnerships with majors like Chevron. Substantial investment needed to revive decayed oil infrastructure. Plan faces domestic political pushback and geopolitical risk. The U.S. administration under President Donald Trump is reportedly exploring

Summary: China’s FX reserves rose USD 11.5 bn in December to USD 3.36 trn Record near-USD 1 trn trade surplus has renewed yuan valuation debate Headline yuan strength masks deep real-exchange-rate undervaluation Weak domestic demand and deflation underpin export competitiveness Analysts see limited scope for yuan appreciation without policy risks China’s foreign-exchange reserves edged higher

“Only time will tell” how long direct oversight is demanded on Venezuela We will rebuild it in a very profitable way The oil will take a while; but we’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil We’re getting oil prices down, and we’re going to be giving money to Venezuela,

Summary: Trump administration urges U.S. oil majors to invest in Venezuela Executives demand strong legal/financial guarantees before committing Policy uncertainty and past expropriation risks remain key hurdles Any output rebound likely slow and capex-heavy, not immediate U.S. aims to steer oil sales/revenue, raising political complexity The Trump administration is pressing major U.S. oil companies to

It’s a rare report in which the Japanese central bank makes no changes to any of their economic assessment of the 9 Japanese regions covered. For the most part, they see regional economies as “recovering moderately” or “picking up moderately”. And that fits with their main messaging in their view towards the Japanese economy as

The sources mentioned that Nvidia is requiring full upfront payment from Chinese customers who are seeking its H200 artificial intelligence chips, which is a rather unusual and stringent term compared to standard industry practice. This looks to be a move by Nvidia to hedge against the relative uncertainty of whether Beijing will approve of the

Summary: 30-year auction demand softened: bid-to-cover 3.14 vs 4.04 Tail widened 0.15 vs 0.09, needing more concession Highest yield 3.457%, reflecting elevated long-end rates Reinforces super-long supply/demand concerns Keeps curve-steepening and term-premium risk in focus Japan’s latest 30-year JGB auction showed a clear softening in demand, reinforcing the message that the market is still uneasy

Date: January 8, 2026 (23:23, Wednesday, 7 January 2026, Eastern Time (ET)) By investingLive.com Head of Strategy and analyst, Itai Levitan, using orderFlow Intel Market Focus: Gold Futures (GC), February 2026 Contract Gold Technical Analysis Summary (Key Takeaways) Gold technical analysis confirms a trend day down after failure above key value levels. A clear look-above-and-fail

Prior 0.0%; revised to -0.1% House prices +0.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6% UK house prices dropped unexpectedly at the end of last year but managed to still round off the year slightly higher compared to where it was in December the previous year. Overall, it’s much like what other housing

Summary: China allegedly hacked emails of U.S. congressional staff Targeted committees include China, intelligence, defence and foreign affairs Linked to cyber campaign known as “Salt Typhoon” U.S. officials warn of risks to critical infrastructure Incident adds strain to already tense U.S.–China relations U.S. concerns over Chinese cyber espionage intensified today following reports that email systems

Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.6% That’s a surprising beat, with the jump owing to a spike in large orders in the manufacture of metal products (+25.3%) and in other vehicle construction i.e. aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles (+12.3%). That adds to moderate increases in several other sectors too, helping to underscore a strong reading for

Summary: Finance ministry flags heightened FX volatility and readiness to act Officials argue won moves don’t reflect fundamentals Verbal intervention aims to deter one-way/speculative momentum Equity-inflow measures flagged to improve capital flow balance Structural flow pressures mean rhetoric may limit swings, not “fix” KRW South Korea’s finance ministry has stepped up its verbal warning on

It’s been a quiet start to the year in the bond market but that won’t last. There are some major events coming that could spark a rethink about the current consensus outlook, which is something like: A moderate acceleration in growth Steady to slightly worsening jobs market 2-3 Fed rate cuts in 2026 Declining inflation

December trade data from China headlines the economic and event calendar in Asia today, Thursday, January 8, 2026. I have not seen this listed on any other calendar, so I’m thinking perhaps it will not be published today. Trade data from China is often more towards the middle of the month. I’ll keep an eye

Summary: RBA says November CPI largely as expected, “not a lot of news” Inflation above target, with core still sticky at 3.2% Deputy governor reiterates rate cuts unlikely anytime soon Black Friday sales helped headline CPI, housing costs firm February meeting remains live, with hike risk still priced Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Data post only, I’ll be back with details separately. Real Cash Earnings -2.8% y/y expected -1.2%, prior -0.8% Overtime Pay +1.20% y/y expected +1.4%, prior +1.5% Average Cash Earnings +0.5% y/y expected +2.3%, prior +2.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC, will carry an interview with RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser “later this morning”. There is no further indication re the time of this, so I guess we all just stay tuned. As you’ll see in the screenshot, Hauser will be speaking after yesterday’s inflation data and ahead of the Reserve

Summary: Goldman expects silver volatility to remain extreme Thin London inventories amplifying price moves Pre-positioning drained liquidity despite tariff exemptions Demand sensitivity has risen sharply amid tight supply China export controls risk further market fragmentation Goldman Sachs expects extreme volatility in silver prices to persist after the metal posted an extraordinary rally in 2025, warning

December ISM services 54.5 vs 52.3 expected JOLTS job openings for November 7.146M vs 7.600M estimate. ADP December national employment +41K vs +47K expected US October factory orders -1.3% vs -1.2% expected EIA weekly crude oil inventories -3832K vs +447K expected Blackstone shares fall after Trump says to ban corporate ownership of homes (but he

The S&P 500 hit a record at midday but profit taking in meme stocks hit from there and then slowly spread into broader selling. Among the bigger names, Lockheed Martin was a loser after Trump threatened defense companies with blocking buybacks unless they increase production. Shares of Caterpillar fell 4% after strengthening earlier this week.

US President Donald Trump has been talking about improving housing affordability for awhile and he might finally be taking steps in that direction. He wrote on Truth Social: For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing

Germany December construction PMI 50.3 Prior 45.2 That’s some positive news at least for the German economy, with the jump higher here driven by a further increase in civil engineering activity. Of note, activity in this segment registered its strongest rate of expansion since March 2011. Besides that, the drag on total activity from the

A middling start for US stock markets has turned into a solid gain, with the S&P 500 up 0.25% to a record 6964. The Nasdaq is leading the way today, up 0.7% to 23718, which is still shy of November’s record at just above 24,000. The Russell 2000 has been the standout performer so far

It’s the start of the year and that means index rebalancing flows. A big one on the radar right now is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), and the flows this year are large. Scotiabank is out with a note breaking down the flows, which start tomorrow and run through Jan 14, with 20% of the

The estimate is for the headline PMI reading to drop to 52.3, down from 52.6 in November. That will point to a further moderation in business activity to round up the year, as reflected in the S&P Global PMI report yesterday here. If the ISM print matches the estimate, that will be the softest reading

Prior -0.3%; revised to +0.3% Retail sales +1.1% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.9%; revised to +1.6% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Summary: Trump says Venezuela will send 30–50m barrels of oil to the U.S. Proceeds from sales to be controlled by the U.S. administration Move follows U.S. capture of Maduro and international backlash Talks underway to redirect Venezuelan crude exports into U.S. markets Oil companies may be tapped to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector President Donald Trump

KEY POINTS: DAX 40 rises above the 25,000 level Softer Eurozone inflation eases ECB tightening risks Positive risk sentiment keeps the bulls in charge US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs could spark a rally in risk assets FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The German DAX has finally broken out of the 2025 range and extended the gains

Highest reading since October 2024 Business activity index 54.4 vs 52.6 prior Employment 52.0 vs 48.9 New orders57.9 vs 52.9 prior Prices paid 64.3 vs 65.4 prior Supplier deliveries51.8 vs 54.1 prior Inventories54.1 vs 54.8 prior Backlog of orders 42.6 vs 49.1 prior New export orders 54.2 vs 48.7 prior Imports 50.3 vs 48.9 prior

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Earlier: China flags rate and RRR cuts in 2026 as PBoC leans dovish China operates a managed

RBI reported to be selling USD/INR ‘heavily’ to support/smooth the rupee (INR) Westpac: softer November CPI reassures RBA, lowers risk of further rate hikes Goldman Sachs sees China equities rising up to 20% by end-2026, earnings-led Bitcoin, solana ETFs planned as Wall Street leans into crypto, Morgan Stanley joins race China escalated tensions with Japan,

Prior was -1934K Gasoline +7702K vs +3186K exp Distillates +5594K vs +2109K exp The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude -2.8m Gasoline +4.4m Distillates +4.9m Given the private numbers, the official report isn’t a big surprise but it’s still bearish. Yes, there was a headline draw in crude but those are big builds in

Summary: China reviewing Meta’s $2bn acquisition of AI firm Manus Focus on whether technology transfer required export licence Review is preliminary, not yet a formal investigation Manus gained attention for autonomous AI agent technology Case highlights rising geopolitical risk around AI deals Chinese authorities are reviewing Meta’s roughly $2 billion acquisition of AI start-up Manus

It would be unprecedented if it were to happen, but the same can be said for a lot of things during Trump’s presidency. As a reminder, Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark and part of the NATO alliance. So if the US tries to pull off something, expect there to be a lot of

In case you missed the release and the earlier headlines: DATA: Australian CPI November 2024 3.4% y/y Australian CPI slows to 3.4% in November, core inflation still firmly above target Just a quick caveat to the latest inflation data here is that this is still a relatively new release. For some context, the October reading

Market Focus: Gold Futures (GC) – February 2026 Contract at 01/07/2026 @ 3:08pm UTC Key Takeaways for Gold Traders Now Institutional selling dominates as rallies are consistently faded below VWAP. Opportunity Score: -6 (Bearish) with a clear lower-highs structure and value migration lower. 4430 remains the primary downside magnet if the current consolidation breaks. 4454–4460

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the Eurozone Flash CPI report. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs 2.1% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.4% vs 2.4% prior. Yesterday, we got some soft figures out of France and especially Germany. The expectations are

Summary: Morgan Stanley forecasts gold at $4,800/oz by Q4 2026 Falling rates and Fed leadership change seen as key drivers Central-bank and fund buying expected to remain strong Geopolitical risk adds to gold’s safe-haven appeal Silver outlook supported by supply deficits and China export controls Gold could extend its historic rally well into 2026, with

Prior was +0.2% This is a badly dated report due to the US government shutdown. The US factory orders report (officially “manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders”) is a monthly census bureau release that tracks how much US manufacturers receive in new orders, ship out, and hold in inventories. markets watch it as a pulse on

Prior month revised: Job openings 7.449M (revised down -221K from 7.670M) JOLTS job openings: 7.145M, that is down -885K YoY Job openings rate: 4.3%, little changed November hires were little changed, holding at 5.1M The hires rate remained steady at 3.2% Hires decreased in: State & local government ex-education (-39K) State & local government education

Summary: Rubio says U.S. threats against Greenland do not signal an imminent invasion. (Wall Street Journal, gated) Administration still discusses buying the island from Denmark. European leaders warn force would imperil NATO. Greenland officials reject being sold or taken. Arctic competition with Russia and China underpins strategic interest. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sought

In 2025, the most important event was Trump’s “Liberation Day” in April where he announced the reciprocal tariff rates for pretty much all the countries in the world. The tariffs were set so high that they surprised everyone and led to risk aversion in the markets. Given the strong selloff in the US dollar in

KEY POINTS: Gold remains supported amid geopolitical tensions and weak US data Risks in the short-term include the US NFP report on Friday and potential US Supreme Court decision on tariffs Big picture uptrend should remain intact amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold continues to be supported by the geopolitical tensions and

The forex market is waffling in narrow trading ranges for the major currency pairs. Looking at the low to high ranges shows: EURUSD 30 pips GBPUSD 35 pips USDJPY 50 pips USDCHF 24 pips USDCAD 26 pips AUDUSD 50 pips NZDUSD 22 pips. That is not a lot of price action to trade. Buyers and

KEY POINTS: Silver remains supported amid geopolitical tensions, weak US data and dovish Fed expectations Risks in the short-term include the US NFP report on Friday and potential US Supreme Court decision on tariffs Big picture uptrend should remain intact amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function Price chart shows a possible double top in the

Prior 39.4 The decline in UK construction activity was less pronounced in December but it’s still a terrible end to the year for the sector. There were sharp falls once again in housing, commercial and civil engineering activity as incoming new work remains subdued. Civil engineering (32.9) was the weakest-performing category of construction activity in

Via oilprice.com — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.5 mn barrels Distillates +2.1 mn bbls Gasoline +3.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut

Headlines: Friday could be an important day for silver: double top or new record highs? Big risks for gold on Friday with US NFP and US Supreme Court on the agenda Dollar hangs in the balance as Trump obsesses over Greenland next DAX 40 rises to new record highs amid positive risk sentiment, softer inflation

Summary: MSCI halts plans to exclude crypto treasury firms from indexes Immediate forced selling risk for crypto-linked stocks avoided Bitcoin proxies retain benchmark inclusion for now Broader review of non-operating firms still coming Longer-term index treatment of crypto exposure remains uncertain Earlier: Bitcoin rises as PwC leans into crypto on US regulatory shift Global index

Not even a week into 2026, and things are already getting lively, especially in geopolitics. In the early hours of January 3, the United States launched a swift military operation in Venezuela aimed at capturing and extracting President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, both accused by Washington of narcoterrorism. But the motivations likely go beyond

Summary: PBoC signals rate cuts and RRR reductions in 2026 Monetary policy to remain “appropriately loose” Focus on boosting demand and stabilising growth December LPR left unchanged for seventh straight month Yuan stability remains a key policy constraint China’s central bank has reinforced expectations for easier monetary policy in 2026, signalling that both interest-rate cuts

Prior was -32K Goods-3K versus -19K last month Service +44K versus -13K last month small business +9K vs -120K prior (6 of the last 7 months have been negative) medium businesses +34K vs +51K last month large businesses +2K vs +39K last month Wages for job stayers +4.4% vs +4.5% last month Wages for job

France December consumer confidence 90 vs 90 expected Prior 89 The reading marks a slight improvement in household sentiment, though continuing to rest well below the long-term average of 100. For some context, the last time that French consumer confidence hit that mark was all the way back in October 2021. Looking at the details,

KEY POINTS: Suspected RBI intervention boosted the Indian Rupee India’s central bank actions not enough to stop the INR depreciation Renewed tensions on the tariffs front remain a negative for the Rupee US dollar bounces around as traders await the US NFP report on Friday FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been bouncing around

Prior +2.1% Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expected Prior +2.4% Headline annual inflation eased slightly to hit the 2% mark with core annual inflation also easing marginally. Still, it’s no time to celebrate just yet and the ECB knows that very well. Services inflation remains the key sticking point, coming in at 3.4% in

Summary: China bans exports of dual-use goods to Japan Move follows Taiwan-related remarks by Japan’s prime minister Restrictions take effect immediately Rare earths, electronics and machine tools among potential targets Highlights China’s use of trade as geopolitical leverage Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said China’s export curbs aimed solely at Japan were regrettable, adding

There are some large expiries on the board for the day but they may not have all too much impact on price action. Let’s take a look with the full list seen below. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1725 level but the pair looks to be consolidating closer to 1.1700 after the

Summary: Morgan Stanley files for bitcoin and solana ETFs Applications submitted to the U.S. SEC Bitcoin ETFs now manage over $120bn in assets Non-bitcoin crypto ETFs have seen weaker inflows Move highlights growing institutional adoption Earlier: MSCI delays crypto treasury index shake-up , supportive for BTC and other crypto Bitcoin rises as PwC leans into

Senior US official: US acquisition of Greenland is “not going away” US final S&P Global Services PMI 52.5 vs 52.9 prelim Fed’s Barkin: Tax changes, deregulation and rate cuts should add stimulus this year Germany December preliminary CPI +1.8% vs +2.1% y/y expected So many false starts but peace looks increasingly possible in Ukraine Markets:

Summary: Japan services PMI slowed to 51.6, weakest since May New order growth softened despite renewed export demand Employment rose at fastest pace since mid-2023 Input costs and selling prices accelerated sharply Business confidence remains historically strong Japan’s service sector continued to expand in December, but at its slowest pace in seven months, signalling a

Australian CPI November 2024 Headline y/y 3.4% expected 3.7%, prior 3.8% Headline m/m 0.0% prior 0% Trimmed Mean y/y 3.2% expected 3.2%, prior 3.3% Trimmed Mean m/m 0.3% prior 0.3% Posting the data here for quick access, detail on a separate post soon. Summary: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China gold reserves at the end of December: 74.15 million troy ounces ↑ In November: 74.12 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of December: $319.45 billion ↑ In November: 310.65 billion The streak continues with this being a cycle that started all the way back in November 2024. Central bank buying

The Reserve Bank of India have stepped into the FX market with intervention so support the rupee. Yesterday I reported on four consecutive days of INR weakness, the RBI acting to avoid a fifth today. The rupee’s recent slide has been driven mainly by early-year importer hedging demand, compounded by a lack of strong foreign

The forex market, once driven mainly by interest rates and GDP figures, has reached a turning point as it is now increasingly influenced by sustainability considerations. To this point, an estimated $30 trillion is currently held in assets aligned with ESG criteria globally, signalling a structural shift in how capital is allocated. Therefore, countries demonstrating

Summary: November CPI flat m/m, softer than Westpac expected Annual CPI eased to 3.4%, below forecasts Downside risk to December-quarter inflation outlook Energy rebates again distorted electricity prices Westpac sees RBA holding rates in February Australia’s inflation pulse cooled more sharply than expected in November, a result that Westpac says should provide reassurance to the

Summary: Russia sent a submarine to escort a tanker the U.S. is trying to seize. Bella 1 reflagged itself with a Russian flag and renamed to Marinera amid pursuit. Moscow has formally protested U.S. pursuit and called for it to stop. U.S. blockade is part of sanctions enforcement on Venezuelan and other sanctioned oil flows.

Summary: Goldman targets MSCI China 100 and CSI 300 5,200 by end-2026 Upside case hinges on earnings acceleration aided by AI and policy Profit growth seen improving sharply versus 2025 pace 2026 starts strong after solid 2025 gains Key risks: demand, property, geopolitics/trade shocks Goldman Sachs is forecasting further gains for Chinese equities in 2026,

Summary: Headline CPI slowed to 3.4% y/y, below expectations (more data here) Monthly inflation flat at 0.0% Trimmed mean eased to 3.2% y/y, still above target Housing, food and transport remain key inflation drivers Data supports RBA hold, not an imminent pivot to rate hikes (IMHO anyway) Australia’s inflation pulse softened in November, with headline

Some time in the not-too-distant future, markets are going to be hit with headlines about the US Supreme Court on tariffs. Technically, they have until late-June to rule but because this was an expedited hearing, that’s likely to come much sooner. It was looking like the earliest option would be the week of January 19

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Its an active data agenda from Australia due today. First listed are the S&P Global PMIs for December, the final readings for services and composite.However, let me save you some time … these were out yesterday: Australia services PMI shows slower growth but rising price pressures in December As I noted with this data: Sticky

Summary: China extends policy allowing disposal of bad personal loans Aim is to support banks amid rising defaults and weak margins Transfers of bad personal loans surged sharply last year Credit card loan stress remains a key concern Regulators prioritising balance-sheet stability China’s financial regulators have moved to extend a key policy allowing banks and

Two things are hitting at once and they’re surely related. The first is from an unnamed US official quoted by Reuters but it came simultaneously with a White House statement saying: Trump has made clear that acquiring Greenland is a ‘national security priority’ Trump would like to acquire Greenland during his term Trump and advisors

Could today be the pivot we’ve been waiting for? The big news out of Ukraine meetings in Paris is that the US appears to be supporting security guarantees for Ukraine with its military. The four-year anniversary of the war is Feb 24 and hopefully we can get a ceasefire before then. The headlines crossing the

If you felt like a genius trader between 2020 and 2025, Rick Rieder has a reality check: You were walking through a casino where every table was paying out. In his latest note looking ahead to 2026, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income (and Fed chair candidate) argues that the “set it and forget it”

Silver was the commodity darling of 2025 and the squeeze higher is continuing this year. Prices are up 5% today and above $80 for only the second time ever. The first rise above $80 came on Boxing Day in low liquidity and quickly faded. This foray higher is coming in New York/European hours with desks

US December ISM manufacturing index 47.9 vs 48.4 expected Fed’s Kashkari: My guess is we’re close to neutral now London copper prices hit a fresh record, touching $13,000 for the first time Novo Nordisk launches first oral Wegovy weight-loss pill in the US MicroStrategy purchases an additional $116 million in Bitcoin, expanding reserves Goldman Sachs

KEY POINTS: Australia inflation data in focus tomorrow The market is pricing 32% probability of a rate hike in February Total tightening expected in 2026 is around 42 bps ASX 200 is trading inside a rising channel Soft data is expected to trigger a rally, while hot figures will likely add more pressure FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Current rate within the range of neutral Upcoming rate decisions will need to be ‘finely tuned’ given risks to both unemployment and inflation goals Both sides of the mandate ‘bear watching’ Inflation has come down but remains above target Unemployment remains low but do not want the job market to deteriorate much further Last year

Amazon frustrated investors last year. There are obvious synergies between Amazon and AI and AWS is also a big beneficiary of AI spending. Despite that, shares were virtually flat in 2025. That could be changing. Shares are up 3.49% today and more than 4% this year. That’s bumped them to the highest since November 11

The US stock market displayed a mixed yet intriguing performance today, as reflected in the heatmap. Notable movements include the technology and healthcare sectors climbing, while consumer cyclicals faced setbacks. 📈 Tech and Semiconductor Gains NVIDIA (NVDA) leads the technology sector with a robust 1.20% increase, bolstered by optimism around AI advancements. Micron Technology (MU)

I was in the studio at BNN Bloomberg to kick off the first trading week of 2026 to discuss the outlook for the Canadian dollar, the surprising resilience of the Canadian consumer, and the massive political risks lurking in the US. The loonie managed a 5% gain in 2025 despite terrible sentiment, but looking ahead,

The memes are sending a signal. And it turns out, it’s a massive fade. Just when you thought you’d seen every possible sentiment indicator—from the AAII survey (which I like) to counting the word “recession” in the WSJ—along comes a team of researchers from Hong Kong and USC with a metric that actually sounds like

Summary: Rupee seen opening slightly firmer after dollar pullback Importer hedging and weak inflows driving pressure US–India trade rhetoric adds downside risk RBI intervention expected to smooth volatility Earlier: India likely to retain RBI’s 4% inflation target as framework renewal nears The Indian rupee may see limited near-term relief on Tuesday after a pullback in

ASX 200 braces for impact with Australia’s CPI release: How is the market likely to react? AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Big day for Australia tomorrow with the inflation data release UK December final services PMI 51.4 vs 52.1 prelim German states see softer headline inflation readings in December Eurozone December final services PMI 52.4 vs 52.6

Prior 53.1 Final Composite PMI 51.3 vs 51.5 prelim Prior 52.4 Key findings: Business expectations drop to lowest since last April Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Business activity in the private service sector grew for the fourth month in a row. Although the

The USD is modestly higher as the NA session begins. The biggest movers are the GBPUSD and USDCHF with the USD showing gains of about 0.17% vs each. The EURUSD is lower after weaker inflation and Service PMI data. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a

Prelim was 52.9 Prior was 54.1 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Prior 51.4 Composite PMI 50.0 vs 50.1 prelim Prior 50.4 The French services sector and overall business activity slumped to stagnation towards the end of last year, as demand conditions were more or less static in December. While there were some reports of increased client interest, firms noted that uncertainty led prospects and customers to

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.0% vs +2.2% y/y expected Prior +2.6% Core CPI Y/Y 2.4% vs 2.7% prior Full report here Big downside surprise in German inflation figures. We had the German states readings earlier in the session which pointed to softer national CPI. The Core CPI Y/Y fell to 2.4% in December vs 2.7% in

Summary: US sets conditions for Venezuela’s interim leadership Demands include drug crackdown and foreign expulsions Oil sales to US adversaries targeted Free elections expected eventually, but no timeline Deadlines described as flexible The Trump administration is pressing Venezuela’s interim leadership to adopt a series of pro-US policy shifts, signalling that cooperation with Washington will be

KEY POINTS: US dollar weakened after soft US ISM Manufacturing PMI Market pricing for the Fed remained unchanged around 62 bps of easing expected by year-end US NFP the main event this week Japanese inflation remains above target but not calling for urgent action BoJ still focused on wage growth Traders expect roughly two rate

Prior 55.6 Composite PMI 55.6 Prior 55.1 The headline reading is a 12-month high and reflects a divergence in trend in Spain’s manufacturing and services sectors. The latter continues to post solid growth, with this being the 28th straight month of the PMI estimate keeping above the 50.0 threshold. A solid increase in new business

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the inflation reports for France and Germany. The French HICP Y/Y is expected at 0.8% vs 0.8% prior, while the headline CPI Y/Y is seen at 0.9% vs 0.9% prior. There’s no inflation problem in France, on the contrary, it’s been below target for

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level (yes, 6-7~~~ ¯_(ツ)_/¯). The pair has been flirting with a firmer break above the figure level since the end of December trading. And today, it looks like buyers might be

Summary: White House confirms talks with US oil companies on Venezuela Trump says firms could invest billions to rebuild energy sector Officials declined to name companies or timing of discussions Reuters reports major firms deny talks on Maduro’s overthrow Chevron remains only US major operating in Venezuela The Trump administration has held discussions with multiple

There’s only a couple out for now and I will update the list below as and when the releases come about, which tend to be roughly around the same time. Here’s what we got so far: North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.8% vs +2.3% y/y prior Saxony CPI +1.9% vs +2.2% y/y prior Bavaria CPI +%

Prior 51.3 Final Composite PMI 51.4 vs 52.1 prelim Prior 51.2 Key findings: Business activity expansion remains marginal Renewed upturn in new orders Input cost inflation accelerates to seven-month high Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Lacklustre business activity growth continued across the UK service sector at the end of

KEY POINTS: US dollar weakened after soft US ISM Manufacturing PMI Market pricing for the Fed remained unchanged around 62 bps of easing expected by year-end US NFP the main event this week For the AUD, inflation data tomorrow is key Given the hawkish expectations, a soft report will likely trigger bigger moves Soft data

The 10-year JGB auction earlier today went rather smoothly with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.30. That pointed to some demand from investors likely amid higher yields but the selling looks to be continuing after now. 10-year Japanese government bond yields had hit its highest levels since 1999 earlier this week and are keeping thereabouts around

Summary: Hong Kong PMI remains in expansion for fifth month, 51.9 in December vs. 52.9 in November Output and new orders grow at solid but slower pace Backlogs rise for first time in a year Selling prices increase at fastest rate since 2023 Business confidence improves into 2026 Business conditions across Hong Kong’s private sector

Summary: Tom Lee says Bitcoin has not yet peaked New all-time highs possible as early as January 2026 seen as volatile first half, stronger second half Ethereum described as undervalued entering a supercycle S&P 500 forecast to reach 7,700 by end-2026 Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak and could print a new all-time

Prior 55.0 Composite PMI 50.3 vs 53.8 expected Prior 53.8 Key findings: Activity growth moderates, despite stronger rise in new business Inflationary pressures cool Confidence fades while jobs growth remains slight Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Italian private sector cooled as 2025 drew to

Summary: Morgan Stanley sees equity upside extending into 2026 Six combined catalysts viewed as underpriced by markets Mid-teens EPS growth underpins bullish outlook Easier policy and deregulation support valuations S&P 500 target set at 7,800 Equity markets still have meaningful upside heading into 2026, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley, who argue investors are underestimating

Japan’s monetary base fell in 2025 for first time since 2007 Decline reflects BOJ exit from ultra-loose policy December monetary base dropped below ¥600tn Bond tapering and rate hikes expected to continue BOJ lifted policy rate to 0.75% in December Japan’s monetary base fell in 2025 for the first time in nearly two decades, underscoring

Prior +0.9% HICP +% vs +0.8% y/y expected Prior +0.8% This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 53.6 Composite PMI 51.5 vs 51.9 prelim Prior 52.8 Both the services and composite readings are three-month lows as overall business activity in the euro area eased towards the end of 2025. A slower rise in demand for euro area goods and services was the main headwind on the month. Meanwhile, there were contrasting

Inflation data is back on the menu but in all likelihood, it won’t do much to change the ECB outlook. As things stand, the central bank is left hanging with markets also not anticipating any interest rate moves for the year. Amid stagflation risks that could crop up, particularly in Germany, policymakers are staying vigilant

The Trump administration today said it had no talks with US oil majors about Venezuelan oil before or after the attacks and capture of Maduro (that’s hard to believe) but will speak to them later this week. There has been plenty of breathless commentary about Venezuela’s huge oil reserves but they’re mostly a mirage. Here

Summary: UK shop price inflation rose to 0.7% in December Food inflation accelerated while non-food prices fell Retailers warn higher wages and regulation may keep prices sticky Business confidence improved but remains below average Capex intentions rose to a 2.5-year high UK retailers raised prices at a faster pace in December and warn that further

JPMorgan sees limited near-term oil impact from Venezuela shift, upside hinges on US engagement. Summary: JPMorgan sees limited near-term oil market impact Venezuela transition largely priced by bond markets Oil “quarantine” remains, but licensing could expand Output could rise 250kbpd short term, more later Global oil balance impact seen as incremental JPMorgan expects the immediate

Summary: Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index eased to 51.1 in December from 52.8 in November Flash reading: Australia preliminary December PMI: Manufacturing 52.2 (prior 51.6) services 51.0 (52.8) Services activity expanded for a near two-year stretch Growth slowed to weakest pace since May New business and export demand strengthened Hiring accelerated, reducing outstanding workloads

It was a strong start to the year. In the first week or so of trading, you generally start to see funds put on ‘core’ positions and we saw some of that today, though trading ws generally dominated by a surge in energy stocks on the Venezuela regime change. Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.6% Nasdaq

Summary: NVIDIA launches Rubin platform at CES 2026 Vera Rubin superchip integrates CPU and dual GPUs Platform targets agentic AI and MoE models Designed for training and inference at scale Reinforces NVIDIA’s annual AI hardware cadence AI hardware leader NVIDIA has formally lifted the curtain on its next-generation Rubin platform, announcing the launch of the

Indian rupee eyes modest relief as dollar eases, pressures persist JPMorgan sees limited oil impact from Venezuela shift, upside depends on US role Japan monetary base falls for first time in 18 years as BOJ exits stimulus into new era Magnitude 6.2 earthquake hits western Japan, no tsunami warning issued PBOC sets USD/ CNY central

The data agenda is a bit boring … But, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is about to take the stage at CES in Las Vegas, where markets will be listening closely for signals on the next phase of accelerated computing and artificial intelligence. His keynote follows a one-hour pregame show focused on AI infrastructure, open ecosystems

Summary: ASX 200 flat as investors await CPI data November CPI due Wednesday at 11:30am AEDT Headline inflation seen easing, core pressures persist Markets price ~39% chance of February rate hike Bank stocks lag amid tightening risk Australian equities traded little changed on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of closely watched inflation

Summary: Magnitude ~6.2–6.3 quake hits Shimane Prefecture Epicentre located in eastern Shimane Intensity recorded at upper-5 on Japan scale No tsunami warning issued Authorities monitoring for aftershocks Depth 10km A strong earthquake struck western Japan Tuesday, hitting Shimane Prefecture with a preliminary magnitude of around 6.2–6.3, according to Japanese authorities. The quake was centred in

Summary: India is likely to renew the RBI’s inflation target unchanged in March Current framework anchors inflation at 4% within a 2%–6% band Officials see the system as effective through recent supply shocks Recent inflation remains below the midpoint, easing policy pressure RBI feedback favours maintaining the status quo India is expected to retain its

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

If you look at the rundown of the S&P 500 today, the best performers are energy companies and it’s no surprise why. Many had exposure to Venezuela and many others are likely to be tapped if/when Venezuelan oil is given back to US companies. Here are the nine biggest winners: Slumberger (SLB): +11.97% Valero Energy

Are financials the hidden AI trade? Or maybe not so hidden given the performance in 2025 and so far this year. The XLF financials ETF rose 13.6% led by a 23.2% return from Wells Fargo and a 21.4% return from JPMorgan Chase. A smaller holding in the ETF was Citigroup, which was up more than

At the balance, the dollar is still trading higher on the day in the major currencies space. But against the Japanese yen, the greenback is now trading lower with USD/JPY sliding back from a high of 157.30 earlier in the day to 156.55 currently. The situation is Venezuela prompted some safety flows into the dollar

KEY POINTS: US dollar recovers the Christmas week losses The market is still betting on at least two rate cuts in 2026 from the Fed On Friday, we have the US NFP report Indian Rupee erased half of its gains since the RBI’s intervention Trump threatens more tariffs on India if they don’t help with

Venezuela itself has been largely compartmentalized. The market has been sniffing out attacks in Venezuela and potential regime change for awhile. There are still some really big questions about who is in charge and what the path is going forward but Venezuela itself is a small economy and even the oil impacts are small. What’s

The economic and event calendar in Asia for today is a light one, with the December manufacturing PMI due from Japan and the Rating Dog Services PMI due from China. You’ll also see listed speeches from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. Paulson spoke

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the Trump administration over the weekend has thrown a massive geopolitical wrench into the energy markets. While the knee-jerk reaction for crude traders might be to bid up prices on uncertainty, the analysts at Scotiabank are warning that the trade isn’t that simple. Scotiabank’s Global Equity Research

Expresses grave concern over US seizing Maduro US actions violate international law Calls on US to immediately release Maduro China is closely following the security situation in Venezuela China has always maintained positive communication with Venezuelan government On oil exports, China believes its interest in Venezuela will be protected by law If situation in Venezuela

📊 Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a vibrant display of mixed performances across various sectors. Notably, the technology sector is exhibiting impressive gains, driven in large part by semiconductor stocks. In contrast, the healthcare sector appears to be underperforming, reflecting a downturn in market sentiment within this space. 📈 Semiconductor Surge: Chipmaker Nvidia

Headlines: China and Russia response the next thing to watch on the Venezuela situation Oil prices fall as US captures Maduro, Trump orders companies to restore Venezuela’s oil China responds to Venezuela situation, urges for immediate release of Maduro Gold Technical Analysis: Venezuela events pushed prices up but US NFP the next risk event Dollar

The US Dollar enters the first full trading week of the year with a mixed performance across the major pairs. While the greenback has gained 0.32% against the Euro, it has softened against the Japanese Yen (-0.16%) and the British Pound (-0.06%) as the North American session begins. In the featured video above, Greg Michalowski,

The immediate reaction in markets to the whole Venezuela situation was reflected in oil prices earlier today. But as we have always seen in the past, geopolitical tensions tend to fade and so does the initial market reaction to it. So in looking out to the big picture and what this whole ordeal might entail,

It’s all playing out well for precious metals to start the new year thus far. Gold and silver are once again in the spotlight today with the former posting gains of 2.1% to $4,420 and the latter up 3.7% to $75.46 respectively. This follows from a strong rally early on Friday but one that fizzled

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was on CNBC today with a mix of comments that lean into the soft-landing narrative, though he’s flashing a warning sign on jobs. Inflation is slowly trending down Not concerned about risk of Fed bank presidents being fired Would love to see Powell remain as a colleague for as long

For years, retail traders have faced a fundamental disadvantage that had nothing to do with skill, discipline, or market knowledge. It came down to data. Institutional traders have long operated with dedicated quant teams, proprietary algorithms, and access to historical analysis that most retail traders could only dream of. while hedge funds made decisions backed

Summary: Yen weakened as the dollar opened the first full week of the new year on a firm footing USD/JPY pushed back toward the upper end of recent ranges Rate differentials continue to weigh on the Japanese currency Markets price more Fed cuts than policymakers currently signal US data this week likely to help shape

Prior was 48.2 Prices paid 58.5 vs 57.0 expected (58.5 prior) Employment 44.9 vs 44.0 prior New orders 47.7 vs 47.4 prior A miserable year for US manufacturing ends with some extra disappointment. This is the lowest reading since November 2024. The new orders reading was a slight improvement but still deeply in contractionary territory.

KEY POINTS: US dollar erased the Christmas week losses The Fed is still expected to cut at least twice this year, while the ECB is seen on hold EURUSD pulled back to a key support zone around the 1.1670 level Eurozone CPI and US NFP in focus this week FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The greenback weakened

The long-term copper trade is one I’ve been banging the drum on since at least 2022 and as you look at the longer-term supply gap, this is the year when it really starts to open up and that will be especially true with the massive Grasburg mine mostly curtailed due to last year’s tragic mudslide.

Summary: Bitcoin rose as institutional crypto sentiment improved PwC signalled a strategic shift toward crypto services US regulatory clarity seen as key catalyst GENIUS Act boosted confidence in stablecoins and tokenisation Big-firm engagement reinforces long-term adoption narrative Bitcoin extended gains today as signs of deepening institutional engagement in digital assets reinforced confidence that the US

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for the day but things will slowly pick up as we officially going on the first trading week of the new year. The full list can be seen below. As mentioned last week, start of the year positioning flows will matter more when looking at price

, This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

ICYMI: US attacks Venezuela, captures President Maduro Happy New Year, especially to Venezuelans! Monday early FX rates guide Venezuela – Goldman sees 2026 Brent at $56 & WTI at $52, flags longer-term downside risks And Trump later spoke: Trump claims control of Venezuela, warns Colombia and Mexico could be next – Gold and silver pushed

Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis: Bulls Defend Breakout as 100,000 Comes Back Into Focus Timeframe: 4-hour chart | investingLive.com | January 2026 Bitcoin technical analysis highlights Bitcoin futures are up about 3.3% from Friday’s close, starting 2026 with bullish momentum. BTC has broken above a multi-touch resistance zone dating back to November 2025. A clean breakout

KEY POINTS: DAX touches a new all-time high Breakout of the 2025 range in focus Positive risk sentiment is providing support amid Fed’s easing, neutral ECB FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The German DAX touched a new all-time high today but couldn’t sustain the breakout of the 2025 range. There was strong optimism in the first half of

Summary: China services PMI remained in expansion but slowed further in December New orders grew at the weakest pace in six months Export services demand slipped back into contraction Job shedding continued for a fifth straight month Business confidence rose to a nine-month high China’s services sector continued to expand in December, but the pace

The trading week of January 5, 2026, has begun with significant market movements driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting regulatory landscapes. A primary driver of volatility is the situation in Venezuela, where China has issued a sharp rebuke regarding the reported US seizure of President Maduro, urging his immediate release and condemning the move

Introduction: What Is Stock Trading? Stock trading involves buying and selling shares, which are small ownership pieces of companies listed on the stock market. The main goal is to make money by taking advantage of price changes. When you purchase a share, you own a small portion of that company, and the value of your

KEY POINTS: Oil prices fell following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by US forces Venezuelan interim President offers to collaborate with the US following threats of further strikes White House told US companies they must rebuild Venezuela’s crude-pumping infrastructure OPEC+ keeps output steady through Q1 2026 Bearish positioning very stretched, what could flip the

Mortgage approvals 64,530 vs 65,010 prior Net consumer credit £2.08 billion vs £1.71 billion prior Overall, net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals increased to £4.5 billion in November, following a decrease of £1.0 billion to £4.2 billion in the month of October. Meanwhile, the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending increased slightly to

Monday starts quietly in terms of economic events for the FX market. In the U.S., the focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, the services PMI data will be released for the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. while Wednesday brings inflation data from Australia and the eurozone. In the U.S., attention

As we transitioned into the new year, the narrative for 2026 is that the dollar will continue to soften amid the myriad of same factors that played out in 2025. But for the time being, geopolitical tensions are taking center stage with the situation in Venezuela in particular. And that seems to be helping the

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Euro Weakens Below 1.18 as Bearish Momentum Isn’t Fading EURUSD futures | 4-hour chart | Analyst: Itai Levitan | investingLive.com And it shows that bears continue to be in control. This comes at no surprise to many of us, especially those that got the heads up last week at our Telegram Channel.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases. The Swiss Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.6 vs 49.7 prior, but whatever the data shows, the SNB is not going to do anything in terms of monetary policy. The same goes for the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Summary: Nomura expects China EV demand to cool further in 2026 New subsidy policy signals tighter support for auto sector Mass-market models seen most vulnerable to demand slowdown EV makers likely to prioritise upgrades over price cuts Technology leaders expected to outperform China’s electric-vehicle market is likely to face further demand cooling this year as

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the back from holidays FX week! Some of us will have unpacked the car after a week or so at the beach and what have you. Some of us will have invaded Venezuela. Big news to open the year, summary:

KEY POINTS: Gold rallied overnight on geopolitical news US NFP report on Friday a key risk event Big picture trend remains skewed to the upside Trendline around the 4230 level could act as strong support FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been supported recently by the soft US NFP and CPI reports before the Christmas holidays. That

Recap: BOJ’s Ueda signals more rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthens Bitcoin rises as PwC leans into crypto on US regulatory shift ICYMI: China front-loads 2026 growth with US$42bn infrastructure project rollout Nomura warns China EV demand to cool as subsidy policy tightens BOJ’s Ueda signals further rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthens Economists warn

Summary: BOJ signals further rate hikes are likely this year Ueda confident wage–price cycle is taking hold Policy rate already at a 30-year high Spring wage talks seen as key catalyst Yen weakness and inflation under close watch The Bank of Japan is increasingly signalling that further interest-rate hikes are likely this year, as confidence

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Suymmary: Trump reaffirmed US control over post-Maduro Venezuela US says it is working with newly sworn-in leaders in Caracas Washington will not invest in Venezuela, despite oil company interest Trump floated the idea of an operation in Colombia Mexico also warned, with cartel power cited as justification US President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric across Latin

Summary: China unveiled an early batch of 2026 infrastructure projects worth ~295 bn yuan Funds target transport, water, energy and security-related projects Spending aims to front-load investment ahead of the 15th Five-Year Plan Ecological protection and carbon reduction also receive funding Infrastructure remains central to China’s growth-stabilisation strategy ICYMI: China has moved to front-load infrastructure

Summary: Economists see inflation remaining sticky through 2026 Growing risk of RBA rate hikes, possibly from February Late-2025 inflation rebound shifted policy expectations Housing, services and labour-market tightness key drivers Forecasts now split between hikes, holds and cuts Inflation is expected to remain uncomfortably persistent over the year ahead, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve

Paulson spoke on Saturday in the US, summary: Suggests further rate cuts may be delayed Inflation seen moderating, growth around 2% in 2026 Current policy still slightly restrictive, helping curb inflation Labour market slowing but remains resilient Any further easing likely later in the year, data-dependent Federal Reserve officials may be in no rush to

Summary: Japan’s manufacturing PMI returned to neutral territory in December New orders fell at the slowest pace in 19 months Output stabilised and employment growth accelerated modestly Input prices rose at the fastest rate since April Firms remained cautiously optimistic heading into 2026 Japan’s manufacturing sector showed clear signs of stabilisation at the end of

Summary BOJ’s Ueda signalled readiness to continue raising rates Further tightening depends on growth and inflation tracking forecasts Wage–price cycle seen as increasingly sustainable Monetary adjustment framed as supportive of long-term growth Signals reinforce Japan’s exit from deflation-era policy Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced expectations of further policy normalisation, signalling that the central

Summary: Goldman Sachs left its near-term price forecasts unchanged, projecting average prices of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 for West Texas Intermediate this year. Goldman sees limited near-term impact from Venezuela on oil prices Any production recovery likely to be gradual and partial Infrastructure damage and underinvestment remain major constraints Near-term Brent

US futures trade for the new week has commenced with Globex now open. oil futures have dropped around 1% gold and silver up a touch emini spx and Nasdaq futures are up also The big news from the weekend was of course from Venezuela: US attacks Venezuela, captures President Maduro Happy New Year, especially to

Summary: OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output steady through Q1 2026 Eight producers cited seasonal demand softness and balanced markets Voluntary cuts remain available for gradual reintroduction if needed Decision comes amid Saudi–UAE tensions and Venezuela uncertainty Next OPEC+ policy review scheduled for February 1 OPEC+ moved to reinforce oil market stability over the weekend,

Sun: OPEC+ Mon: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); UK Mortgage Approvals/Lending (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec), Final PMIs (Dec) Tue: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); French & German Prelim HICP (Dec), EZ Final PMIs (Dec), UK Final PMIs (Dec) Wed: Australian CPI (Nov), German Retail Sales (Nov), Unemployment

The US launched military operations in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Images from the country showed multiple strikes and fires. US President Trump announced that Madura was captured. An executive from state oil company PDVSA said the La Guaira port was severely damaged but that oil facilities were unscathed. Trump We

Markets won’t be back in full swing until next week but we’re getting a bit of a teaser of what the focus will be today already. US futures are running higher but it is once again commodities that are hogging the spotlight, in particular precious metals. After melting higher in December, we’re starting to get

Prior 49.6 Euro area manufacturing activity slumped in December with the headline reading being a 9-month low amid a fresh decline in output. Demand conditions are showing renewed weakness with new orders falling at the quickest pace in almost a year. Overall business optimism is still being retained with the contraction here being a relatively

The Canadian manufacturing sector remains stuck in the mud as the final Canadian S&P Global survey of manufacturers was released. It’s another soft reading for the Canadian economy, and the details here are painting a stagflationary picture that the Bank of Canada isn’t going to like. Here are the details from the S&P Global Manufacturing

If you would like to stay in holiday mode again today I’ve good news for you. The vacation mood will carry on for today, Friday, January 2, 2026, with professional activity mainly returning on Monday the 5th. I thought we might have Rating Dog services PMI from China today, after we got official PMIs and

Sector Overview The stock market witnessed a notable rally today, with the semiconductor sector leading the charge. Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged by 2.02% and 3.63% respectively, reflecting robust investor confidence in tech hardware advancements. 🚀 Technology: Broad gains were observed with companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR)

Prior 50.6 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 47.8 The final estimate is little changed from the preliminary reading as France’s manufacturing sector saw a modest jump in activity to round off the 2025 year. A strong rise in new export orders was the key reason in underpinning sentiment while employment conditions also returned to growth on the month. Meanwhile, output volumes

Prior 50.2 There is a slight negative revision but it still marks an improvement to November, as the UK manufacturing recovery continues at end of 2025. Of note, both output and new orders nudged higher in helping to see the headline reading post a 15-month high. So, that’s a positive signal at least. However, there

Prior 48.2 The headline reading is a 10-month low as a drop in demand conditions sees German manufacturing activity slump in the final month of last year. Of note, manufacturing output slid into contraction territory for the first time in ten months amid falling export sales. And that led to deeper cuts to employment, purchasing

The Fed might be headed for a more dovish shift in 2026 but Treasury yields may stay underpinned regardless. And that’s not a good recipe for risk trades, even if the early positioning flows today might point to a more optimistic picture for equities to start the year. As much as stocks are hoping for

Summary: Australia’s manufacturing sector remained in expansion in December, with the PMI holding at 51.6 for a second straight month. New orders and output continued to grow, though momentum eased amid softer foreign demand and tighter competition. Employment rose at the fastest pace in nine months, supported by better candidate availability and rising workloads. Supply

Global broker STARTRADER is unveiling a refreshed look and feel as part of its brand repositioning. Since its establishment, the company has been focused on strengthening the trust it has built with clients, partners, and institutional businesses. The repositioning will be reflected in the brand’s visual identity. To align with the newly introduced tagline, “Built

Prior 51.5 Spain’s manufacturing sector slid back into contraction territory for the first time since April amid falls in both output and new orders. Softer demand conditions are to blame but manufacturers also chose not to renew temporary labour contracts, resulting in the biggest monthly fall in employment for two years. HCOB notes that: “Spain’s

Prior +0.3% House prices +0.6% vs +1.2% y/y expected Prior +1.8% It’s a soft end to the year with the average house price ending at £271,068 for December. But overall, UK housing market activity has remained resilient all through 2025. One has to remember that household and consumer sentiment in the UK has been relatively

Bank of Korea (BOK) warns weak won risks inflation as USD/KRW diverges from fundamentals Trump TACO now with pasta – backtracks on Italian pasta tariffs after industry pushback Australia manufacturing PMI holds 51.6 in December. Hiring accelerates & inflation firms. ICYMI: China slaps 55% tariff on excess beef imports under new three-year safeguard regime Canadian

Happy New Year, everyone! I hope you’re all still enjoying the holiday break as markets are still more or less sidelined until next week. That is when activity and liquidity will slowly pick back up after the rest period from Christmas to the new year. As such, there aren’t any major expiries to take note

Summary: Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the central bank will review its forward guidance framework on the future path of interest rates. Rhee warned that excessive won weakness could harm domestic businesses and add to inflation pressures. He said USD/KRW levels above 1,400 appear disconnected from Korea’s economic fundamentals. The BOK will not

Summary: The U.S. Commerce Department has sharply reduced proposed antidumping duties on Italian pasta imports, stepping back from levels that risked forcing producers out of the U.S. market. Initial duties of up to 92% were revised down to 2.3% for La Molisana and 13.9% for Garofalo, with most other producers facing a 9.1% tariff. Italian

TL;DR summary, and note there is AUD risk in this news: China will impose a 55% tariff on beef imports exceeding newly set quotas from January 1, 2026, under a three-year safeguard regime. The 2026 total import quota is set at 2.7 million tonnes, broadly in line with 2024 imports but below 2025 shipment levels

There are two big events to watch for in 2026 that will swing the outlook for the loonie, including one that could be just days away: 1) Supreme Court decision on tariffs The Supreme Court has until late June to decide on the legality of US tariffs on Canada but because this was an expedited

The euro is proof that once something in financial markets becomes overly hated, it doesn’t take much to lift it. The common currency was the top G10 currency in 2025, rising 13.3% against the US dollar. It was closely followed by the Swiss franc with the Australian dollar and British pound in third and fourth

Prior was 214K (revised to 215K) Continuing claims 1.866M vs 1.923M prior The claims numbers over the holidays are highly volatile and subject to large seasonal revisions so they’re poor numbers to index from. The drop over a number of weeks is notable though and is tracking towards the bottom end of this range again.

Sector Overview The latest stock market heatmap paints a mixed picture for investors, with differing fortunes across various sectors. Technology and healthcare present a standout contrast, marking today’s dynamic landscape. 📈 Semiconductors Surge: Nvidia (NVDA) shines bright, up 1.23%, leading a mild rally in semiconductor stocks such as AMD (+0.49%) and Intel (+0.54%). This uptick

TL;DR summary: OPEC+ is widely expected to reaffirm its planned pause in oil output increases at a meeting this weekend, as evidence builds of a growing global supply surplus and slowing demand growth. With crude prices under sustained pressure, the group appears inclined to prioritise market stability over further production hikes. — OPEC+ is expected

Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in December 2025. – The screenshot adds in the priors, not mentioned in the text. The screenshot does not show the ‘Composite’ which has come in at 50.7, up from 49.7 in November. – China publishes two main PMI

OPEC+ expected to maintain output pause amid growing global oil surplus, January 4 meeting China S&P Global/Rating Dog December 2025 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expect 49.8, prior 49.9) China official December 2025 PMIs: Manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.2) Non-manu 50.2 (exp 49.8) PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0288 (vs. estimate at 6.9945) China

TL;DR summary: China is extending a value-added tax (VAT) exemption on certain residential property sales, adding another incremental policy measure aimed at stabilising its long-running real estate downturn. While the move lowers transaction costs for homeowners, it underscores Beijing’s preference for targeted relief rather than more forceful intervention. — China will extend a policy waiving

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The real estate market, long seen as one of the most traditional, relationship-driven industries, is undergoing a profound technological transformation. In 2025, this shift isn’t just incremental; it’s structural. New technologies from artificial intelligence (AI) to blockchain and immersive reality tools are changing how properties are marketed, bought, financed, and managed, blurring the line between

Introduction: What Is Prop Trading? Prop trading, short for proprietary trading, occurs when a financial firm uses its own money to trade in the market instead of using clients’ funds. Instead of making money by charging fees or commissions to customers, these firms aim to make direct profits from their trading activities. For traders, working

Summary: The December meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee reveal a finely balanced debate over the decision to cut interest rates, with policymakers divided between growing labour-market risks and lingering concerns over inflation credibility. While most participants see scope for further easing if disinflation resumes, several warned against moving too quickly while inflation

China’s manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of stabilisation at the end of 2025, with business conditions edging back into expansion territory, according to the latest S&P Global/Rating Dog Purchasing Managers’ Index data. While the improvement was modest, the rebound marked a welcome shift after months of subdued momentum, driven primarily by stronger domestic demand rather

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

China is set to publish a fresh round of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data later today, Wednesday, December 31, offering another timely snapshot of economic momentum at the end of a difficult year for the world’s second-largest economy. China publishes two main PMI surveys, each capturing different parts of the industrial landscape. The official PMI

Via oilprice.com: While the headline and distillates showed smaller builds than expected the gasoline build was much greater. — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2.39 mn barrels Distillates +1.75 mn bbls Gasoline +1.55 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey

TL;DR summary: China is stepping up efforts to revive household spending, allocating fresh funding from ultra-long special treasury bonds to expand its consumer trade-in subsidy scheme. The programme, first launched in 2024, will be broadened in 2026 to include digital and smart products, as policymakers look to counter weak growth momentum and rebalance the economy

Seems like everyone wants to get in the gold crowded Long. Even Goldman Sachs says to buy gold and sell oil, but what about our Euro traders and investors? EURUSD continues to trade in a technically sensitive zone, where order flow dynamics reveal more than standard price charts alone. While spot price action may appear

TL;DR summary: Trump warned Iran against rebuilding weapons programs, reviving strike risk. Renewed Iran tensions raise the prospect of higher oil risk premiums. Hamas disarmament pressure adds to regional instability concerns. Trump renews Iran strike warning as Gaza disarmament pressure raises oil risk premium US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could back another major

TL;DR summary: China delivered minimal rate cuts despite expectations for aggressive easing. The PBOC has prioritised financial stability and targeted liquidity tools. Fiscal stimulus is expected to carry the bulk of policy support into 2026. China’s central bank has taken a notably restrained approach to monetary easing, defying widespread expectations for aggressive rate cuts as

There has been a lot of talk lately about the rise in U.S. debt, and rightly so. This year alone, it has increased by more than $2 trillion. What is even more worrying is that interest payments on the debt continue to rise. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s summary for fiscal year 2025, net

The latest CaseShiller housing price index of the 20-largest US cities showed prices up 1.3% year-over-year, just a shade above the +1.2% consensus but a deceleration from the +1.4% y/y reading in September. On a monthly basis, home prices rose 0.3%, beating the +0.1% consensus. The September reading was revised to +0.2% from +0.1%. A

The team at Goldman Sachs is out with their big 2026 Commodities Outlook, and they aren’t mincing words. If you’re looking for a theme to hang your hat on next year, Daan Struyven and the team call it: “Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves.” The gist? The US-China fight for AI and geopolitical dominance

Sector Overview The industrials sector is showing notable gains today, with Boeing (BA) leading the pack with a rise of 1.24%. This uptick might be attributed to positive developments in aerospace and defense, providing a lift to the overall sector. Conversely, the consumer cyclical sector appears to be under pressure. Amazon (AMZN) has dipped by

If not for the AI boom and massive government deficits, I suspect the broader US economy would look more like the housing industry. The massive hangover from ultra-low rates during covid continued this year, despite early hope for optimism. The home builders’ ETF ($XHB) tells the story. It was rocked early in the year along

Prior +3.0% HICP +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.2% Spanish headline inflation comes in slightly below the readings in November but more or less within estimates at least. The most important metric though is core annual inflation and that is still seen at 2.6%, similar to the previous month. As such, that continues to

Well, a brand new year will mark the changing of the guard so to speak in terms of voting members at the Fed. And we will get to that in a couple of days’ time, so it is important to understand the dynamics of the situation especially since we’re entering a rather delicate timeline for

It is reported that China is to mandate chipmakers to use at least 50% of domestically made equipment for adding new capacity, as Beijing looks to keep up the push in building a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain. The sources noted however that the rule is not one that will be publicly documented. But should chipmakers

TL;DR summary: Silver steadied after a 9% one-day drop, the largest in over five years. Both gold and silver are on track for their best annual gains since 1979. Central-bank buying, ETF inflows and Fed rate cuts continue to underpin prices. Silver prices stabilised above $73 an ounce after suffering their steepest one-day decline in

TL;DR summary: China shipment data point to a sharp rebound in non-Chinese branded phones, boosting Apple’s implied market share. Premium demand appears resilient despite weak overall growth in China’s handset market. Regulatory risks persist, but brokers see iPhone momentum cushioning near-term pressure. A renewed surge in iPhone demand across China is reinforcing the bullish case

Monday’s close was 7.0056. People’s Bank of China injects 312.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operations, rate remains 1.4%. — The People’s Bank of China daily USD/CNY reference rate is a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange

Oil traders note – Saudi airstrikes in Yemen expose escalating tensions with UAE China defies easing calls as PBOC keeps rates steady and shifts focus to fiscal support Silver steadies after sharpest sell-off in 5 years as metals head for best year since 1979 PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0348 (vs. estimate at

TL;DR summary: Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes in southern Yemen, indirectly confronting the UAE. Riyadh accused UAE-linked channels of supplying weapons to southern separatists. The episode exposes a widening Saudi–UAE rift with potential oil-market implications. Quiet but long-simmering tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) moved into the open after Saudi airstrikes

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

TL;DR summary: South Korea will publish a roadmap early next year for MSCI index upgrade. The move targets long-standing accessibility gaps that currently keep Korea as an emerging market. Inclusion could attract substantial foreign capital and narrow the “Korea discount.” South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance has confirmed it will announce a detailed roadmap

TL;DR summary: EIA data showed unexpected builds across crude, gasoline and distillates. Inventory figures clashed with prior expectations for tightening balances. Oil prices remained supported by geopolitical risk and supply concerns. — US oil inventories surprise to the upside as geopolitical risk lifts crude prices The US Energy Information Administration’s long-delayed weekly inventory report delivered

TL;DR summary: Nvidia has completed a $5bn private placement in Intel, formalising a ~4% equity stake. The deal follows US government and SoftBank funding aimed at supporting Intel’s turnaround. Intel’s recent share rally leaves Nvidia sitting on a sizeable unrealised gain. — Nvidia’s $5bn Intel stake becomes official as partnership shifts from promise to execution

Palladium futures had one of those sessions where the price action alone looks chaotic, but the order flow underneath tells a clearer story. Today’s move was not just a normal pullback. It behaved like a forced unwind that eventually transitioned into stabilization and early recovery, with a credible case that the session low near $1677

Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis Today: Range Pressure Builds Near 91,000 Resistance When I look at the 30-minute time frame since December 11th, the story has been a step-like transition from a higher pricing zone into a more defined trading range. Price rotated around the mid area near 91,750, close to where the December 12 VWAP

Sector Overview: Technology and Finance in Focus The stock market today paints a somewhat mixed picture as observed through the heatmap, with a notable decline in semiconductor stocks. The semiconductor sector is glowing red with significant declines. Nvidia (NVDA) is leading the downturn, falling by 1.96%, while AMD and AVGO are also suffering losses at

As we look to wrap up 2025, the AI bubble just about managed to get away unscathed to end the year. That being said, there were rising concerns to deal with especially that on valuation. And in talking about that, it is fair to say that all of this will be a mainstay in the

TL;DR summary: Drills include blockade-style operations and joint assault scenarios Exercises involve multi-directional air and naval approaches Rhetoric framed as warning against Taiwan independence Markets watch for signs of escalation beyond scheduled drills China’s military has announced a new, larger-scale exercise around Taiwan (earlier info: China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December

Silver certainly got its moment in the spotlight last week as a parabolic move went stratospheric. The put silver on front pages around the world and prompted some hand-wringing from the world’s richest man. There are rumors about squeezes and margin calls prompting the last leg of the move on Friday and now that air

Earlier: China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30 China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demand China industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakens — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115

Here is the expiries board for the remainder of the year. And as you would guess it, overall activity is rather sparse amid the lack of liquidity and interest during the holiday period. The only relevant one today is highlighted in bold below. But on a day like this, I wouldn’t attach much significance –

TL;DR summary: Elon Musk flags concern over potential silver supply restrictions Social media claims point to tighter Chinese export controls from 2026 Silver is critical for EVs, electronics and renewable technologies China dominates global silver supply chains Markets alert to parallels with rare earth export curbs – Silver prices have attracted renewed volatility after comments

TL;DR summary: BoJ says policy rate remains far below neutral despite recent hike Several members favour steady further rate increases Real interest rates seen staying deeply negative even at 0.75% Yen weakness and bond yields partly blamed on overly low rates Stronger wage-price dynamics reinforce tightening case Full text: Summary of Opinions at the Monetary

Friday’s close was 7.0063. Since then: China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills simulating blockade around Taiwan (more info) China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30 China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demand China industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakens Added:

Many thought Donald Trump’s return to the White House would mainly boost cryptocurrencies, sending BTC/USD and the broader market to new highs. However, the reality has been somewhat different. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin prices have declined by more than 7%, although it reached a new all-time high in October. Stocks, meanwhile, have

TL;DR summary: China signals a more proactive fiscal stance for 2026 Policy focus shifts toward consumption, innovation and social support Authorities aim to reduce reliance on exports and lift domestic confidence Growth target around 5% likely to be retained Fiscal policy expected to play a central stabilising role China’s fiscal stance is set to turn

Musk flags silver supply (and price!) risks as China export curbs spark market concern PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0331 (vs. estimate at 7.0057) China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills simulating blockade around Taiwan (more info) BoJ signals more rate hikes ahead as policy seen far from neutral. JPY trades higher. Christmas Day/Boxing

TL;DR summary: Industrial profits fell 13.1% y/y in November, the steepest decline in over a year Weak domestic demand and factory-gate deflation outweighed export resilience Coal sector profits slumped sharply, dragging aggregate performance Autos and high-tech manufacturing remained relative bright spots Markets continue to expect further policy support in 2026 to stabilise growth China’s industrial

TL;DR summary: China announces major PLA drills around Taiwan on December 30 Exercises include live-fire activities in surrounding waters and airspace Drills run from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time Markets view the move as a familiar geopolitical risk signal Focus remains on whether exercises are extended or escalated China announced it will conduct

TL;DR summary: European and US leaders report “good progress” in Ukraine peace discussions Trump reiterates talks are close, but admits key territorial issues remain Security guarantees largely agreed, though not yet finalised Europe stresses need for ironclad guarantees from day one Markets remain cautious about pricing a full peace dividend — Momentum around Ukraine peace

We are all is trying to gauge if this is the “Peace Dividend” moment or just more of the usual negotiation bluster. Trump says they are in the “final stages” of talking and believes both Putin and Zelensky want a deal. Promises a “strong” security agreement is coming. He’s calling European leaders today and plans

Its an almost empty economic and event calendar in the Asia-Pacific timezone today. Well, it is holidays! Professional market traders won’t really fire up again until next Monday, January 5. Nevertheless, we will be getting the Bank of Japan’s ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the December meeting at 2350 GMT which is 1850 US Eastern time