While the US-Iran conflict is still the main event for markets, this week will feature a bit of a sideshow and distraction. That as US president Trump is to make a trip to China from 13 to 15 May, at the invitation of China president Xi Jinping. The trip will mark the first visit to […]

Japan’s petrol subsidies are draining funds at 300bn yen a month while yen intervention nears IMF limits, putting Tokyo’s fiscal and currency strategy on a collision course, Reuters Breakingviews argues. Summary: A Reuters column by Hudson Lockett argues that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces a fundamental contradiction between her energy subsidy programme and her

China’s April exports jumped 14.1% year-on-year to $359.4bn, smashing forecasts of 7.9%, while imports surged 25.3% to a record $274.6bn, lifting the trade surplus to $84.8bn. Summary: China’s April trade surplus came in at $84.82 billion, up sharply from $51.13 billion in March and above market expectations of $83.3 billion, according to customs data Exports

Iran is said to have proposed a text demanding U.S. sanctions relief, an end to its naval blockade, war-end guarantees and removal of OFAC oil sanctions within 30 days, per Tasnim citing an “informed source”. Summary: Iran’s proposed negotiating text is said to underline the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions as a condition of any

EUR down, AUD down, NZD down as examples. Yen hanging in there. Earlier: Iran state media says Iran wants sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz Iran demand Trump says no Iran rejects Trump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil is higher. Up more than 3%. ES and NQ are a touch lower. Barely off at all. Globex open now. Catch up on the news from here if you need: Futures aren’t open yet, but early FX is pointing to risk off gap This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier: Iran said to table broad demands covering sanctions, war and security in U.S. talks The usual process is tantrum first, taco later This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sat: Chinese Trade Mon: Chinese Inflation (Apr), Norwegian Inflation (Apr) Tue: BoJ SOO (Apr), IEA STEO (May), EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Japanese Household Spending (Mar), German HICP Final (Apr), Italian Industrial Production (Mar), German ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr) Wed: BoC Minutes (Apr), EIA OMR (May), OPEC MOMR (May), Riksbank Minutes

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Bulls Repair the 80K Zone, But 82.8K Remains the Key Breakout Gate Last updated: May 9, 2026 Market bias: Mildly bullish repair, not confirmed bullish expansion Bitcoin is trading with a constructive short-term bias after buyers defended the repaired value area near 80,000. The current BTC price forecast improves while price

US April non-farm payrolls +115K vs +62K expected Canada employment change -17.7K vs 15.0K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% expected US and Iran could resume talks next week — report ECB’s Nagel: ECB will do whatever necessary to him he energy price surge Iran: From now on actions of the US maritime blockade will

The WSJ is out with the latest leak on US-Iran negotiations: Talks could resume as early as next week Iran remains against transferring nuclear material Iran and the US working with mediators to formulate a 14-point MOU that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the war The US would ‘wind

On the day: S&P 500 +0.85% Nasdaq Comp +1.7% DJIA flat Russell 2000 +0.75% Toronto TSX Comp +0.6% On the week: S&P 500 +2.3% Nasdaq Comp +4.5% DJIA +0.2% Russell 2000 +1.7% Toronto TSX Comp +0.5% The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh all-time highs today. A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report—adding 115,000 jobs

Soon after the better-than-expected US jobs report in the worse than expected Canadian jobs report, I posted the following brief commentary and chart: The key resistance zone overhead was defined by the 38.2% retracement level, the swing area between 1.37089 and 1.37149, and the 100-day moving average near 1.3720. The price pushed higher into that

There’s not too much happening on the session as markets are largely waiting on fresh leads from the US-Iran conflict. So far, there’s nothing new as we continue to wait on the supposed framework deal to at least free up the Strait of Hormuz. It still remains to be seen how such an agreement will

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground yesterday following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, The US and Iran exchanged fire in the most serious test of their month-long ceasefire, with Iranian forces attacking three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz using missiles, drones and small boats, and

The AUDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking back below a key ceiling/floor zone between 0.7221 and 0.7227. That bearish break helped push the pair down toward the next swing area support between 0.7193 and 0.7200. In early Asian-Pacific trading, buyers leaned against that support zone for several hours, helping stabilize the price before the pair rotated

Prior was +178K (revised to +185K) Two-month net revision -16K February was -133K (revised to -156K). January was +160K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.3% Unrounded unemployment 4.337% vs 4.256% prior Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.9% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.2% vs 8.0% prior Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3%

Japan’s services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4, an 11-month low, as Middle East war costs drove input inflation to a 42-month high and business confidence hit its lowest since the pandemic. Summary: The S&P Global Japan Services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4 in March, marking the softest rate of

Overall imports increased by 5.1% on the month while exports were only seen up 0.5% on the month. And when compared to the same month a year ago, imports were markedly higher by 7.2% with exports only up by 1.9% relative to March 2025. While Destatis does not provide a detailed breakdown, it is safe

Crude oil is settling at $94.81, down $0.27 or -0.28% on the day, after another volatile trading session driven by geopolitical headlines and shifting risk sentiment. Technically, the market is closing just below a key technical level — the 50% midpoint of the rally from the April 17 low — which comes in at $94.95.

It’s jobs day in the US and while markets are still fixated on US-Iran developments, the non-farm payrolls data will be a key risk event to look out for in wrapping up the week. The consensus is for a +62k headline print with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. That will continue to keep things

ECBs Nagel; Will do whatever is needed to contain energy price jumps ECB is highly alert to increasing inflation risks. ECB will do whatever necessary to curb energy price surge. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed policy is holding back the jobs market Thinks that the Fed should provide less forward guidance Less forward guidance will make policy options more flexible Fed should look through energy price shock Neither the jobs market nor inflation expectations point to higher inflation The comments are not surprising as Miran was planted at the

The USD moved briefly higher following the better-than-expected U.S. jobs report, but the broader market reaction has since turned more risk-positive than dollar-supportive. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115K versus expectations of 62K, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as expected. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year — a mixed outcome

ECBs Legarde is speaking and says: climbing energy costs will push up input prices. Price increases may then be passed to consumer. We should be well-placed to react, when needed Current rates: The ECB at their last meeting last week held rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at

More from Cleveland Fed Pres. Hammack: I need to keep an open mind about next policy move given the uncertainty I hear concerns among businesses that an inflationary mindset is starting to become entrenched in people’s minds This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japan intervened repeatedly in forex markets during May holidays, source says UAE says it is responding again to a missile threat Goldman says Trump tariff ruling near-term impact limited as appeal looms PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8502 (vs. estimate at 6.8138) Trump gives EU until July 4 to implement Turnberry

Prior month 49.8 Sentiment index 48.2 versus 49.5 estimate Current conditions 47.8 versus 52.0 estimate expectations index 48.5 versus 48.1 estimate 1-year inflation expectations 4.5% versus 4.7% last month. 5-year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.5% last month The numbers are at multi-decade lows and reflective of the economic issues caused by the Iran/US war. From

It was always going to be a tough one. Japan’s ministry of finance (MOF) know very well that they are going up against a striking fundamental backdrop that dictates the yen to be lower. With the US-Iran war still ongoing, there is no change to the fact that all the factors in play are pointing

The US jobs report is expected to show a meaningful slowdown in hiring momentum, but not enough deterioration to immediately force the Fed into an easing cycle. Consensus forecasts call for headline nonfarm payrolls to rise by 62K, down sharply from 178K last month, while private payrolls are expected at 75K versus 186K previously. The

Goldman Sachs expects the Trump administration to appeal the CIT’s tariff ruling before May 12 and a higher court to stay it, leaving the 10% duties likely intact until their July 24 expiry. Summary: Goldman Sachs expects the Trump administration to appeal the Court of International Trade’s ruling against the 10% Section 122 tariffs before

Technology sector climbs as healthcare stumbles Today’s stock market is witnessing a noteworthy divergence as tech giants lead a rally, while healthcare stocks slump. A closer look at the heatmap reveals dynamic shifts across various sectors, providing insightful takeaways for investors seeking to navigate these changes. 📈 Tech sector resurgence: Leading the charge The technology

Prior month 14.1K Employment change -17.7K vs 15.0 estimate Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% estimate Full time employment -46.7K vs -1.1K last month Part-time employment 29.0K vs 15.2K last month Participation rate 65.0% vs 64.9% last month. Details from Statistics Canada: Employment changed little across major age groups in April. The unemployment rate for youth

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices remain mostly rangebound, but there’s been more bearish pressure since Wednesday following several positive news on the US-Iran front. In fact, oil prices sold off after Trump paused Project Freedom so that the US could work to finalise a deal with Iran. The pause was of course interpreted as another step

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Iran fired missiles, drones and small boats at three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz; no US assets were hit; Centcom struck Iranian launch sites, command posts and surveillance nodes in response. Summary: US Central Command confirmed Iranian forces launched missiles, drones and small boat attacks against USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta and

Morgan Stanley targets $5,200 gold this year, driven by ETF buying, China accumulation and 2027 Fed cuts, but warns the Iran conflict has exposed gold as a rates trade, not a safe haven. Summary: Morgan Stanley has set a gold price target of $5,200 per ounce for later this year, driven by resumed central bank

Two reports just crossed on Iran: 1) A Fox News reporter says the US military carried out airstrikes today, hitting several empty tankers trying to break the US blockade of Iran. “These were Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) …. massive, empty ships trying to make it back to Iran … attempted to run the blockde…”

Headlines: The constant push for diplomatic resolution continues to cap the upside in oil prices Japanese yen slowly erases intervention-driven gains as macro backdrop remains negative How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? What are the analyst calls ahead of the US

A US trade court struck down Trump’s 10% global tariffs 2-1, ruling the duties were not justified under a 1970s trade law; the White House had cited a $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit as grounds. Summary: The US Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 against President Trump’s 10% global tariffs, finding they were not justified

Japan’s real wages rose 1.0% in March, a third straight monthly gain; total cash earnings rose 2.7% against a 3.2% consensus and prior; BOJ rate decision due June 15-16. Summary: Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages rose 1.0% year on year in March, a third consecutive month of gains, according to government data released Friday Total cash

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so I would expect the impact to be relatively muted; all else being equal. Trading sentiment remains largely tied to the broader

The good vibes are continuing to deteriorate. Reports out of the Middle East are that Iran attacked US missile destroyers after the US attacked Iranian tankers. Additionally, Iranian TV is reporting anti aircraft activity in Northwest Tehran, but also explosions due to air defense system tests. Fog of war! This article was written by Eamonn

Cyprus’s leading real estate event, REALTYon 2026, officially opened yesterday at the City of Dreams Mediterranean, welcoming thousands of visitors and bringing together some of the biggest names in the property industry under one roof. Bringing together more than 80 exhibitors, sponsors, and leading real estate brands — including Limassol Greens, Imperio, Green Properties, bbf,

Iran and the US exchanged missiles and more: Reports filtering in that Iran launched missiles at US Navy ships US strikes Bandar Abbas and Qeshm as Gulf tensions surge past ceasefire US CENTCOM says US destroyers repelled Iranian attack in Strait of Hormuz Separate reports out of Israel and Iran says hostilities have ceased. For

The UAE says its air defences are engaging at present with missiles and drone threats. Earlier: Iran launched missiles at US Navy ships US destroyers repelled Iranian attack in Strait of Hormuz This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Paul Tudor Jones says the AI bull market has one to two years left, likens the moment to 1999, and warns the eventual correction could be breathtaking; he has added to AI stock positions. Info via CNBC. Summary: Paul Tudor Jones said the AI-driven bull market still has one to two years to run and

Gold Analysis Today: Mild Bullish Bias, but Bulls Still Need Confirmation Above $4,775 Gold futures are showing a mildly bullish recovery today, with the latest structure pointing to higher value acceptance after the May 4 low. The current gold analysis score is +3.0 / +10, which means the market has improved, but the setup is

Industrial production -0.7% vs +0.5% m/m expected Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.5% That’s a big miss on factory output on the month, even with a negative revision to the February numbers. The decline in March compared to the previous month is attributable to production decreases in energy generation (-4.0%) and mechanical engineering (-2.7%) for the

House prices -0.1% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.5% Average property price £299,313 Prior £299,609 The more cautious undertone stems from the relative uncertainty from the Middle East conflict but all else being equal, the UK housing market continues to show much resilience so far this year. Halifax notes that: “After a strong start to

Deutsche Bank warns markets are pricing the Iran conflict inconsistently across equities, rates and credit, with long-run inflation faith looking increasingly difficult to sustain. Summary: Deutsche Bank notes a clear repricing across markets since the Iran conflict began, but identifies significant inconsistencies across asset classes and regions, according to the bank’s research note US Treasury

Japan intervened in forex markets during early May holidays in addition to April 30 operations; BOJ data suggests total spending of around $67 billion across both periods to support the yen. Info via Reuters. Summary: Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market during the early May holiday period as well as on April 30, in

A couple of lower tier items due from Japan is about it. Asia markets will likely be contyent to await the US jobs data. Trump has already given us a clue: investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump has seen the NFP number and he is happy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Banxico lowered the Benchmark interest rate to 6.5% from 6.75% as expected. Board members Heath and Borja voted to hold rates steady. Board members Rodriguez, Mejia, and Cuadra voted to cut rates. The board was not unanimous on the rate decision. Benchmark interest rate lowered to 6.50% from 6.75%. Headline inflation is projected to converge

Trump has given the EU until July 4 to implement the Turnberry trade deal or face much higher tariffs; car tariff hikes are on hold after Trump spoke with von der Leyen. Summary: US President Donald Trump has given the European Union until July 4 to implement its side of last year’s Turnberry trade agreement

The major US stock indices are closing lower today. The S&P and NASDAQ indices closed higher two straight days and closed at record levels as well. Although the S&P and NASDAQ indices both made new all-time intraday highs at 7385.02 and 26036.38 respectively, the gains cannot be sustained. Dow industrial average fell -314.04 points or

NY Fed Pres John Williams is speaking (voter) and says: There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now Economy perform better last year than many expected. Economy has shown a lot of resilience, amid stable job market. The data support idea of K shaped economy, lower income families under pressure. Interest rates

Trump: Had a great call with the president of European commission Von Der Leyen says that Europe and US are completely united that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Agreed to give EU until July 4 to fulffill trade agreements or unfortunately there tariffs would immediately jump to much higher levels Recall, on May

The Wall Street Journal is reporting Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of bases and airspace tied to operations around the Strait of Hormuz. The move clears a key obstacle for the U.S. effort to restart escorted commercial shipping operations through the strait. The U.S. had paused the mission, called Project

San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly his is speaking and says: Committed to bring inflation back to Fed’s 2% target. Monetary policy is slightly restrictive, and would put downward pressure on inflation should US war in Iran resolve. Said no indication yet that the energy prices surge is driving medium or longer-term inflation expectations higher.

ECBs Schanabel is speaking and says: My view is that some damage done from Iran war will be hard to reverse There seems to be a disconnect between the stock market and the global situation. Earlier, Schnabel said: Signs of supply chain disruptions are reemerging. Rapidly growing shares of European manufacturing firms are planning to

Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD are giving back earlier gains as broader market sentiment turns more cautious. The EURUSD is still modestly higher on the day by 0.08%, while the GBPUSD has slipped back to unchanged levels after failing to sustain upside momentum. Meanwhile, crude oil has rebounded sharply back above $95 after earlier trading

Al Jazeera is saying a US official told them that reports about preparation to resume Operation Freedom to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect “Operation Freedom” (sometimes also referred to in reports as “Project Freedom”) is the Trump administration’s military-backed effort to reopen and protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran

Sector Overview The US stock market today presents a compelling dichotomy with technology stocks surging, while the energy sector grapples with significant declines. The heatmap reveals that the technology sector is leading the market, buoyed by gains in major players like Microsoft (MSFT), which is up by a noteworthy 2.52%. In the software infrastructure segment,

Trump advisers fear political price of Iran war fuel costs ahead of midterms China loan curbs, yuan surge and holiday spending in focus as Beijing juggles pressures ICYMI – Saudi base ban forced Trump to pause Strait of Hormuz shipping operation Australian March 2026 trade balance -1840mn (expected 4.250mn suprlus) PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

I preferred to adjust wording that signals cutting bias I still expect rate cuts down the road Rates will likely remain on hold for a longer period The odds of worse inflation scenario have increased Alternative scenario could make the Fed consider a hike Fed’s Collins is not a voter this year, so we haven’t

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: BTC Tests Key Support After Failed Breakout Attempt Bitcoin futures are trading at an important decision area today, with BTC MAY26 currently near 81,160 on the 200 Range Volumetric chart. The broader structure is no longer cleanly bullish after price failed to sustain above the upper value area, but bears have

April one-year-ahead expected inflation: 3.6% versus March’s 3.4% April three-year-ahead expected inflation: Unchanged at 3.1% April five-year-ahead expected inflation: Unchanged at 3.0% April year-ahead home price rise expected: 3.0% versus March’s 3.3% April year-ahead gasoline price expectations: Dropped “sharply” Current and future access to credit views: Deteriorated versus March April expectations for higher future unemployment:

Intense communications to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz Reaching understandings regarding easing the siege in exchange for the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz The coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait more to come This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Around $1.7 billion in U.S. crude futures changed hands in the hour before an Axios report on a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal sent oil prices lower, with multiple experts calling the activity suspicious, MarketWatch reports. Summary: Roughly 17,300 front-month WTI crude futures contracts valued at more than $1.7 billion changed hands in the hour before

China gold reserves at the end of April 2026: 74.64 million troy ounces In March 2026: 74.38 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of April 2026: $344.17 billion In March 2026: $342.76 billion The reserves quantity shows another month of increase, with this being the 18th straight month of buying by

Given the fallout from the Middle East conflict, this isn’t surprising. We’ve seen a similar episode before during the Russia-Ukraine war, so this will very much follow the same path. As energy prices keep higher, expect that to have a more significant toll on the French trade balance in the months to come. For some

China’s financial regulator has quietly told major banks to suspend new loans to five U.S.-sanctioned Iranian oil refiners, while the yuan surged to its strongest PBOC fixing since March 2023 amid easing Middle East tensions. Summary: China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration verbally instructed the country’s largest lenders to suspend new yuan-denominated loans to five refineries

If there’s one thing that we know about Trump from his first term as president, it is that he really does weigh his achievements based on how the stock market performs. And this time around is no different. The US-Iran war put him in a tough spot in March but since April, it has been

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

NASDAQ and S&P close at record levels. Dow breaks 50 K but backs off into the close. Fed’s Goolsbee warns Iran war turning into an inflationary shock for U.S. economy Dow reaches 50,000. There have been 4 closes above the 50K level Fed’s Goolsbee: Impact of rising productivity on inflation remains active topic of debate

The ECB is likely to hike rates unless the outlook improves markedly This is the exact same thing he said on Monday, so there’s nothing to see here. The ECB has already signalled that a rate hike in June is coming unless the war ends and oil prices fall significantly before then. The market is

As a reminder, US president Trump is scheduled to meet with China president Xi Jinping next week on 14-15 May. The meeting will take place in Beijing and will mark the first time since a US president has travelled to China since 2017. There will be a lot of things to talk about and we’re

Construction PMI 42.1 Prior 48.0 That’s a rough one as the German construction sector slides deeper into contraction territory amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Surging energy prices is translating to higher price pressures and that in turn is weighing on overall activity on the month. The steep fall in total activity at

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee says the U.S.-Iran war is acting as an inflationary shock, warning prolonged high oil prices risk embedding expectations and would be “extremely problematic” for the central bank. Summary: The U.S.-Iran conflict is increasingly resembling an inflationary shock, with limited impact so far on employment and growth but rising concerns about supply chains

Headlines: Gold rebounds strongly as hope for the end of the war returns. What’s next? US president Trump continues to gas up the stock market, posts Dow snapshot The Bank of Japan is back in the yen market China keeps up with the gold buying spree as reserves climb for a 18th straight month ECB’s

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold rallied strongly yesterday following several positive developments on the US-Iran front. In fact, the bullish momentum got triggered by Trump pausing Project Freedom so that the US could work to finalise a deal with Iran. The pause was of course interpreted as another step towards a deal. Later in the European session,

ECB’s François Villeroy, Governor of the Banque de France, cautioned against premature speculation regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes. Villeroy has been emphasising that the ECB must remain “data-driven, not date-driven”. He recently said that the ECB needs “critical mass of data” before considering rate hikes and added that any tightening would depend

RBNZ Governor Breman: Expect New Zealand house prices to remain flat, increase a “little bit” over time Expect somewhat higher near term inflation Expect somewhat weaker growth but we still expect growth this year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump advisers are privately worried the Iran war’s fuel cost surge will cost Republicans at November’s midterms, as U.S. airlines face a 30% jump in fuel bills and airfares hit $570 for a domestic round trip, the Wall Street Journal (gated) reports. Summary: Trump administration advisers are privately concerned that surging fuel costs stemming from

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite closed at fresh record highs today, while the Russell 2000 also ended at a new closing peak as investors embraced a stronger risk-on tone. The rally was fueled in part by growing hopes for a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Reports circulated that a proposed one-page

Japan’s suspected JPY5-6 trillion yen intervention may prove its least successful yet as the Iran war leaves authorities at the mercy of unpredictable geopolitical factors, MUFG warns. Summary: Japanese authorities are suspected to have intervened in foreign exchange markets as dollar-yen fell from near 160 to below 157, with market estimates based on Bank of

Axios cites unnamed US officials on the somewhat of a deadline. Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14–15, 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Mimura yen verbal intervention again – says closely watching FX. Earlier: Bessent to raise weak yen with Japanese officials in Tokyo meetings next week While Mimura’s comments are nothing out of the ordinary, he’s said such things countless times in the past, the bouts of intervention from the BoJ than began late last week

Iran is expected to deliver its response Thursday to a U.S. proposal for ending the war, with Trump citing “very good talks” and Pakistan actively mediating toward a permanent peace agreement. Summary: Iran is expected to hand over its formal reply Thursday to Pakistani mediators regarding a U.S. proposal to end the war, according to

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will visit Japan next week for talks covering the weak yen, rare earths and energy procurement, with individual meetings scheduled with the PM, finance minister and Bank of Japan governor, the Nikkei reports. Summary: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to travel to Japan next week to discuss the weak

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that if high oil prices begin feeding into broader inflation, the central bank may need to deliver consecutive increases to its policy rate. Summary: The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25% at last week’s meeting, with Governor Tiff Macklem telling the Senate Standing Committee

Although Australia’s March trade balance is marked as high impact its not likely to move around financial markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is extending higher after recovering from earlier weakness at the start of the trading day. As outlined in an earlier post, the pair first moved back above its 100-hour moving average near 1.3600, but buyers have now taken the next important technical step with a break above the 200-hour moving average at 1.3631

The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday, but upside momentum stalled near the lower end of a key swing area resistance zone between 1.3574 and 1.3602. The rally peaked at 1.3577 before sellers leaned against the resistance area and pushed the pair lower into the new trading day, sending the price back toward its 100- and 200-hour

The NASDAQ index continues to lead the rally, surging more than 400 points, or 1.58%, to 25,726 after reaching an intraday high of 25,741.14. The broader market is participating in the move as well, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 1% on the day. The Dow is up

The weekly crude oil inventory data is showing Crude oil -2.313M versus estimate of -3.291 million Gasoline -2.504M versus estimate of -2.107 million Distillates -1.294M versus estimate of -2.352 million The private data last night showed larger drawdowns: Crude oil is currently trading at $95. The price was trading at $95.20 just before the report.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Iran and US mediators are hammering out a one-page 14 point memorandum of understanding to end the war. The memorandum would layout a framework for a month-long period of talks. Talks would resume as early as next week in Pakistan. Says that Iran has expressed openness to

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: Impact of rising productivity on inflation remains active topic of debate. Activities impact on inflation and interest rates could go in either direction. If households anticipate future income, wealth gains from higher productivity, they could produce spending inflation. If people pull forward future expected earnings for spending

US Secretary of State Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire intact, even as the UAE reported a second day of Iranian missile and drone strikes. Summary: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and characterised ongoing tanker escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as

The USDCAD moved lower earlier in the day as broad-based dollar selling pressure pushed the pair down, but buyers found support and helped drive the price back toward unchanged levels on the session. In the rebound, the pair climbed back above its 100-hour moving average, which currently comes in at 1.3600 — a key technical

The AUDUSD extended higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, effectively reversing the rate cuts seen earlier in 2025. The move marked the central bank’s third consecutive hike as policymakers continue their fight against stubborn inflation pressures. Technically, the bullish momentum gained traction yesterday when the pair moved

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There’s not much to pick up on when looking at the option expiries board for today. As such, trading sentiment will continue to ride more heavily on the risk mood among other things. But amid another round

Trump speaking at a Mother’s Day event at the White House says: Iran wants to make a deal Dealing with people who want to make a deal. We will see whether or not they agree. The blockade is unbelievable Will not let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile Israel’s Netanyahu is also speaking and says:

Australia will spend more than A$10bn to establish a permanent government fuel reserve of around one billion litres and lift minimum stockpiles across all fuel types by approximately ten days. Summary: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Australia would lift minimum stockpiles on every type of fuel by around ten days, according to the announcement A

China is back from an extended holiday today. The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under

The USDJPY moved sharply lower earlier today, breaking below both its 100-day moving average at 157.316 and the falling 100-hour moving average at 156.90 — a bearish technical development that shifted momentum firmly in favor of the sellers. The decline also pushed the pair below the 50% retracement of the rally from the February 12

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. The 6.8562 is the strongest since March 24, 2023. The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this rate. PBOC injects 26bn yuan through 7 day reverse repos at unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The pair is down over 90 pips in a drop back to just below the 157.00 level. The timing seems to fit, with it being a Japanese market holiday and the last two attempts also came as we got into the period between Asia to the start of European trading. That said, the previous attempts

Prior 50.9 Final Composite PMI 48.4 vs 48.3 prelim Prior 51.9 Key findings: Business activity falls at quickest rate for nearly three and-a-half years Confidence slumps amid deepening downturn in demand Output price inflation jumps to 26-month high Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The chances of the German economy

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board again today following several positive news on the US-Iran front. Late yesterday, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and its objectives achieved. That was followed by Trump tonight pausing Project Freedom so that the US could work to finalise

Secretary of State Rubio: Iran is creating long range missiles that could reach parts of Europe Witkopf and Kushner working on diplomatic path Iran must come to the table and except terms. US will continue to clear the passageway through the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation US have destroyed 7 Iranian and

AMD beats Q1 earnings estimates with revenue of $10.25bn and strong Q2 outlook NASDAQ and S&P index close at record levels Crude oil trades between 100/200 hour MAs. Neutral bias. Rubio: Iran creating long range missiles that could reach parts of Europe Bitcoin buyers push to the highest level since the end of January Atlanta

US Treasury announces $125 bln refunding through July 2026, to raise new cash of $41.7 bln US Treasury to keep coupon, floating rate note auction sizes unchanged for the next several quarters U.S. to sell $25 bln 30-year bonds on May 13, to settle on May 15 U.S. to sell $58 bln 3-year notes on

Gold tops $4,650 as weaker dollar and Iran peace hopes lift precious metals NAB calls June RBA hike to 4.60% as Middle East inflation compounds domestic pressures ING sees AUD rebound ahead as RBA signals pause but stands ready to act China private survey Rating Dog Services PMI 52.6 in April (up from 52.1 in

Headlines: US, Iran reportedly getting close to a framework deal to end the war Iranian navy talks up possible safe transit through Strait of Hormuz as US threats recede The S&P 500 extends gains into new record highs as US, Iran close in on a deal to end war USD/JPY sees a quick knock down

On peace negotiations, reaction from Israel is conflicting: Israel was reportedly unaware that the US was nearing a deal with Iran had been preparing for an escalation. Israel security/military officials reportedly believe negotiations are a waste of time and conveyed to the US a desire to resume attacks on Iran. However, in recent hours Israel

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 extended the gains into new record highs today following several positive news on the US-Iran front. Late yesterday, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and its objectives achieved. That was followed by Trump tonight pausing Project Freedom so that the US could work to

Sector overview The US stock market today presents a diverse landscape, highlighted by the impressive performance of the technology sector, driven primarily by semiconductors. On the other hand, the energy sector faces significant declines, illustrating a divergent market scenario. Semiconductors: NVDA emerges as the standout performer with a substantial gain of 3.98%. This surge underscores

New Zealand’s central bank says its financial system is resilient and banks can withstand significant shocks, but warns the Middle East conflict will slow the country’s economic recovery. Summary: The RBNZ’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report found the financial system resilient and well positioned to support households and businesses even if conditions soften, according to

Super Micro Computer beat Q3 adjusted EPS estimates at $0.84 vs $0.63 but missed revenue at $10.24bn against the $12.45bn forecast, while guiding Q4 EPS above consensus. Summary: SMCI reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.84, well ahead of the $0.63 estimate, according to the company’s earnings release Third-quarter revenue came in at $10.24bn, missing the

The S&P and NASDAQ indices close at record levels. The gains were led by the NASDAQ which rose by 1.03%. The S&P rose by 0.81%.. The Dow industrial average rose by 0.73%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was also a beneficiary of risk on sentiment. 2 closed at a new record with a gain of 1.75%.

Prior 50.5 Final Composite PMI 52.6 vs 52.0 prelim Prior 50.3 Key findings: Higher fuel prices lead to intensifying inflationary pressures across the service economy Business activity growth picks up from March’s 11-month low Lower export sales weigh on order books during April Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “April

Services PMI 47.6 vs 47.4 prelim Prior 50.2 Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.6 prelim Prior 50.7 Trouble, trouble. The services PMI was the lowest in 62 months while the composite PMI was the lowest in 17 months as the euro area economy is hit hard from the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. The

Prior was +62K (revised to +61K) Details: Goods +15K versus +30K last month Service +94K versus +32K last month Small business +65K vs +85K prior Medium businesses +2K vs -20K last month Large businesses +42K vs -4K last month Wages: Wages for job stayers 4.4% vs 4.5% last month Wages for job changers 6.6% vs

The early reports this morning suggest that the U.S. and Iran are moving closer to a one-page memorandum aimed at ending the war — or at least establishing another ceasefire framework. The agreement would reportedly serve as the foundation for more detailed nuclear negotiations going forward, including discussions surrounding future uranium enrichment limits, which was

Trump’s post on Truth Social: “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts,

The report says that Washington is of the belief that an agreement is within reach as they are moving close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. Just take note though that the agreement here will be separate to nuclear talks, as it will also attach a framework for more detailed negotiations

The confluence of a weaker dollar, retreating oil prices and ceasefire optimism has created a near-ideal short-term environment for gold, but the rally carries an inherent fragility: any re-escalation between the US and Iran could trigger rapid profit-taking and force short-term speculators to unwind net long positions quickly. The relationship between oil and gold remains

Services PMI 47.6 vs 47.6 prelim Prior 48.8 Composite PMI 47.6 vs 47.6 prelim Prior 48.8 The readings were not changed from the initial estimates, reaffirming a further decline in French services and overall business activity in April. Of note, new orders were seen falling at the fastest rate since November 2023. The survey revealed

New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in Q1, beating the 5.4% forecast, but economists warn the labour market impact of the Middle East conflict is still six to twelve months away. Summary: New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in Q1, below the 5.4% forecast and prior reading of 5.4%, according to Statistics New

National Australia Bank now expects the RBA to hike again in June to 4.60%, arguing the central bank faces a compounding inflation shock it cannot afford to let run, with cuts pencilled in for H2 2027. Earlier: ING sees AUD rebound ahead as RBA signals pause but stands ready to act Westpac sees upside inflation

Their previous attempts since last week were thwarted by buying closer to the 155.50-70 region. But after a push towards the 158.00 mark yesterday, Tokyo officials look to be saying enough is enough and are going hard on the intervention push today. The latest round of yen buying support from the MOF now sees USD/JPY

The EU has urged the US to swiftly restore the 15% Turnberry tariff terms agreed last year, ahead of the deal’s one-year anniversary in July, following talks between Sefcovic and Greer in Paris. Info via Reuters report. Summary: EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris for a ninety-minute discussion

The RBA raised its cash rate 25bps to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote, citing Middle East inflation pressures, but Westpac sees the June move as more finely balanced after Governor Bullock’s dovish tone. Summary: The RBA Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May 2026 meeting in

ING expects the Australian dollar to recover after post-RBA weakness, saying the central bank retains its hawkish credentials and stands ready to hike again if inflation data materially surprises. Earlier: Westpac sees upside inflation risks after RBA lifts cash rate to 4.35% in 8-1 vote AUD faces headwinds above 0.72 as RBA signals pause, TD

Crude oil is under pressure, trading down $3.80 (-3.57%) at $102.62, after a volatile session that saw a high of $105.48 and a low of $101.08. From a technical perspective, the price has fallen back below the 100-hour moving average at $104.60, shifting near-term control back toward sellers. However, the decline found support just ahead

China’s RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, with domestic demand driving a fortieth successive month of new order growth, while the composite PMI climbed to 53.1 Summary: The RatingDog China General Services Business Activity Index rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, signalling a faster rate of

Results via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen: headline crude oil -2.8mn barrels distillates -2mn bbls gasolina -1.7mn bbls This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TD Securities has shifted its RBA call to a final 25bps hike in August to 4.60%, citing dovish May messaging and Middle East income shock risks, while warning AUD faces near-term headwinds above 0.72. Summary: The RBA hiked the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote at its May meeting, with

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to hold rates at 4.35% for the rest of 2026 before cutting in 2027, though an August hike remains possible if Q2 trimmed mean CPI surprises to the upside. Earlier: Westpac sees upside inflation risks after RBA lifts cash rate to 4.35% in 8-1 vote AUD faces headwinds above 0.72

Trump: Iran, U.S. have mutually agreed that, while blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (movement of ships through Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not agreement can be finalized and signed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I posted earlier on Trump trying to hold together the ceasefire: Trump seeks to preserve Iran ceasefire as UAE says missile and drone attacks continue More positively now. Trump posting on “great success” towards agreement, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand jobs report more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s labour market looked set to show continued slack heading into the first quarter of the year, with economists flagging that upcoming survey data would paint a picture of restrained hiring and subdued wage growth before the Middle East conflict began to weigh on the economy. Westpac economists expected the unemployment rate to hold

Advanced Micro Devices posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37 vs est. $1.28 on revenue of $10.25bn, beating the $9.89bn consensus, and guided Q2 revenue to $10.9bn-$11.5bn. Summary: AMD reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37, ahead of the $1.28 estimate, according to the company’s earnings release First-quarter revenue came in at $10.25bn, topping the consensus estimate

The USDCHF found support late last week after testing a key swing area floor between 0.7774 and 0.7782, a level that has held multiple times since April. Friday’s low at 0.77782 attracted buyers, sparking a rebound that carried into Monday. That upside momentum extended through a nearby resistance zone between 0.78309 and 0.7840, but the

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for the 2nd quarter rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2026 is 3.7 percent on May 5, up from 3.5 percent on May 1. After recent releases from the

Bitcoin dipped yesterday and used the rising 100-hour moving average as a springboard. Buyers leaned against that level, defended it, and turned price action higher—a move that has extended into today’s session. Importantly, the rally has pushed—and held—the price above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at $78,978, marking a clear shift in

The technical landscape for Ethereum (ETH) as of May 5, 2026, reveals a pivotal shift in momentum based on the daily chart above. This internal strength is developing alongside a broader market recovery where tech shares are leading a rebound and US futures remain steady despite geopolitical tensions. As I also wrote this morning, Nasdaq

Prior 6.882M JOLTs job openings 6.866M vs 6.835M estimate Quits 2.0%vs 1.9% prior . 3.17 billion versus 2.974 million last month Vacancy rate 4.1% versus 4.2% last month Details from the BLS: Openings decreased in professional and business services (-318K) and increased in finance and insurance (+98K) Hires: Hires: 5.6 million (+655K) – rebounded after

The translated message: “The new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is in the process of being solidified. The security of shipping and energy transit has been jeopardized by the United States and its allies through the violation of the ceasefire and the imposition of a blockade; of course, their evil will diminish. We know

The EURUSD and GBPUSD have both pushed to fresh session highs in the North American session, but the technical story diverges beneath the surface. For EURUSD, the move higher ran into a key confluence—a trifecta of resistance defined by the 100-hour, 200-hour, and 100-day moving averages, all clustered near 1.17078. The pair briefly extended to

Prior month 0.587M New Home Sales Summary – March 2026 Sales Activity March 2026 new single-family home sales: 682,000 seasonally-adjusted annual rate Up 7.4% from February 2026 (635,000) versus -17.4 last month Up 3.3% from March 2025 (660,000) February 2026 sales of 635,000 were up 8.9% from January 2026 (583,000) For Sale Inventory & Months’

Sector Overview The US stock market today presented a diverse picture with mixed performances across sectors. Notably, the technology sector faced challenges, marked by declines in major players, while semiconductor stocks witnessed a boost. Technology: Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) experienced dips, down 0.75% and 0.99% respectively. This decline reflects investor caution in the

NASDAQ futures are trying to shift from recovery mode into bullish control, but the market still needs to prove acceptance above the upper value zone. For today’s NQ futures tradeCompass, the main decision area is clear: Bullish above: 27942.50 Bearish below: 27828.00 Main balance zone: 27828.00 to 27942.50 Key intraday magnet: 27890.00 At the time

Prior month 47.2 Services PMI (Business Activity): 49.2 (prev. 47.2) → 6th month below 50 (contraction) Composite PMI: 49.9 → just below expansion threshold New Orders: Increased (first rise since Nov 2024) Employment: Increased (first gain since Aug 2025) Selling Prices: Highest increase in 2 years Input Costs: Remain elevated (unchanged vs prior month) Confidence:

The USDJPY tumbled sharply last week after intervention fears out of Japan surfaced as the pair pushed above the 160.00 level. That warning triggered aggressive selling, driving the price down to 155.46—just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the February 12 low (155.505). Buyers leaned against that level, and the pair

NQ futures trader update Score: -2.5 / +10Bias: Mild bearish pressure, but not full bearish controlConfidence: Medium-low NQ is pulling back after failing to sustain trade near the upper value zone at 28097 to 28111.50. The morning structure was constructive, but the latest sequence shows sellers gaining short-term control as price rotates away from the

The USDCAD is down modestly on the day, slipping -0.07% after an early push higher failed to gain traction above key resistance. The pair briefly moved above its 100-hour moving average and into a swing area between 1.3620 and 1.36305, but the lack of follow-through opened the door for sellers to reassert control into the

ECB’s Villeroy is saying that: Not seeing sufficient signs yet to raise rates Will raise rates if second-round effects are seen The European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged at last week’s April 30 meeting, maintaining the deposit rate at 2.00% while emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach amid heightened uncertainty. Policymakers acknowledged that

Sec of War Pete Hegseth spoke on the latest from Iran. Mission focus: Project Freedom is temporary and separate from broader operations of Epic Fury Objective is protecting shipping, not escalating conflict “The world” has expressed a desire to be a part of Project Freedom Stance on Iran: Iran labeled as the clear aggressor Warns

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar started the week on a positive note following rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, we got reports and denials about Iran firing on US ships in the Strait which gave the greenback a boost. Trump said the US sank 6 Iranian fast boats while Iran denied it.

Pres. Trump is speaking and says: Iran plays games but they do want to make a deal We have total control. If there is no Iran deal, it will go quickly and methodically. Iran did not shoot ships guarded by the US. Iran’s economy is crashing. I hope Iran’s economy fails because I want to

prior month -$5.11B revised from -$5.74B Details: Canada swung to a trade surplus of $1.8B in March (from a $5.1B deficit in February) — first surplus since Sept 2025 Exports surged +8.5% to $72.8B, driven by gold and crude oil (price-driven gains; volumes slightly lower) Imports fell -1.6%, led by declines in consumer goods and

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told parliament he expects the Federal Reserve’s culture and conduct to continue unchanged under its incoming chairman, dismissing concerns about Fed independence post-Powell. Macklem was speaking Monday afternoon Canada time. Summary: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said he believes the culture and conduct of the US Federal Reserve

Prior month 54.0 Non-manufacturing PMI 53.6 vs 53.7 estimate Business activity 55.9 vs 53.9 last month Employment 48.0 versus 45 point to last month New Orders 53.5 vs 60.6 last month Prices paid 70.7 vs 70.7 last month Supplier deliveries 56.8 versus 56.2 last month. Inventories 53.1 versus 54.8 last month. Backlog of orders 53.0

Australia’s services PMI rose to 50.7 in April from 46.3 in March, but new orders fell for a second month and input price inflation hit its fastest pace since August 2022, driven by Middle East fuel costs. Summary: The S&P Global Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 50.7 in April from 46.3 in

Goldman Sachs strategist Tony Pasquariello says the US equity bull market primary trend remains higher but flags energy prices as a clear danger and warns risk-reward has deteriorated after a historic Nasdaq rally. Summary: Goldman Sachs strategist Tony Pasquariello told clients on Monday that the primary trend in US equities remains higher, supported by five

The trading industry doesn’t reward hesitation. While some brokers have already submitted their nominations for The Trading Awards, the window remains open, but not indefinitely. If your brand hasn’t moved yet, now is the moment to act before competitors lock in their advantage. The difference between noise and signal Every brokerage claims superior execution. Every

Prior month $-57.3B Current month -$60.1B vs -$83.49 last month. Estimate -$60.9B Good trade balance -$88.7B increasing the deficit by $4.1 billion from the prior month Services surplus $28.4 billion up $1.6 billion from the prior month Exports $320.9 billion, +2.0% or +$6.2 billion imports $381.2 billion, +2.3% or + $8.7 billion A larger (wider)

Australian data, March 2026 household spending +1.6% m/m (prior +0.3%) +0.7% q/q +6.3% y/y (prior +4.3%) Still to come, due 2.30pm Sydney time (0430 GMT/ 0030 US Eastern time): CBA tips RBA rate hike tomorrow but warns Iran war makes it a close call. Split RBA board May meeting, RBA set for third straight hike

The broader market mood continues to be driven by US-Iran developments and after the he said, she said episode yesterday, we’re seeing a rather quiet period today. The US continues to reaffirm that it is establishing some presence in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran is maintaining that they are the ones still in control.

AUD/USD remains stuck in a range as RBA signals a pause and US-Iran stalemate extends US futures keep steadier after the drop yesterday Indian Rupee flirts with new record lows as US-Iran stalemate extends, tensions rise USD/JPY treads with caution amid fear of incurring another intervention hit Oil prices stay elevated amid rising tensions in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices remain in triple digit territory amid the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, we got reports and denials about Iran firing on US ships in the Strait which brought some volatility. It looks like there were some warning shots but it’s not clear what happened

Prior month 49.8 preliminary 51.3 S&P Global services 51.0 versus 51.3 preliminary. S&P Global composite 51.7 versus 52.0 preliminary. Last month 50.3. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar started the week on a positive note following rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, we got reports and denials about Iran firing on US ships in the Strait which gave the greenback a boost. Trump said the US sank 6 Iranian fast boats while Iran denied it.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its latest meeting, reversing the three rate cuts seen in 2025. The central bank signaled that, after recent tightening, policy is now well-positioned to respond to incoming data, with the Board focused on its mandate of price stability and

Rabobank is maintaining its forecast for USDJPY to end the year at lower levels, citing Japan’s structural shifts, while flagging the Strait of Hormuz timeline as a key assumption underpinning the call. Summary: Rabobank has maintained its forecast for USDJPY to finish the year at lower levels, based primarily on structural changes underway within Japan,

June WTI crude oil futures today settled higher by $4.48 to $106.42 but I’m more interested in longer-dated contracts that continue to creep up. That’s arguably where bonds and equities have traded off since the conflict. Early on, the market mostly took Trump at his word that oil would come down after the conflict. There

It’s a tricky moment for USD/JPY as traders adopting a more cautious approach so far today. While the yen continues to be punished by the US-Iran conflict, the dollar side of the equation is also keeping firmer as the war drags on. Adding to that now is the bond market starting to ring the alarm

The US is closer to resuming major combat operations against Iran than it was 24 hours ago after Iranian forces fired on US vessels and struck UAE targets, senior officials told Fox News, as the ceasefire holds but frays. Senior US officials told Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin that the US is

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Bank of Canada’s Macklem backs Fed independence ahead of Powell departure RBA set to hike to 4.35% today. NAB sees cash rate peaking near 4.6%. Rabobank holds yen bull view despite poor run, eyes Hormuz as key risk Australian data: March household spending +1.6% m/m (prior +0.3%) Iran launches boats, missiles and drones at US

Thin trading in the yen makes it more responsive to intervention efforts. Its has some spikey movies. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3% Core CPI +0.3% y/y Prior +0.4% Even with price pressures set to rise in the months ahead, the Swiss economy now feels like it has a bit of a buffer to work with. But in the bigger picture, it’s not exactly a good thing if the Swiss franc continues to stay at more

Prior 4.10% Cash rate vote was 8-1 Middle East conflict has resulted in sharply higher fuel and commodity prices, which are already adding to inflation There are early signs that many firms are looking to increase prices of their goods and services There are materially heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and

The USS Truxtun and USS Mason transited the Strait of Hormuz under a sustained Iranian barrage of small boats, missiles and drones, entering the Persian Gulf without either vessel being struck, per US defense officials. Summary: Two US Navy destroyers, the USS Truxtun and USS Mason, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the

ECB professional forecasters have raised eurozone inflation expectations to 2.7% for 2026 while cutting growth forecasts to 1.0%, with energy costs from the Middle East war cited as the primary driver. Summary: The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2 2026 showed headline inflation expectations revised sharply upward to 2.7% for 2026, up from a

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The only real mover so far on the day is the Australian dollar, being dragged down slightly amid RBA governor Bullock’s press conference – which is still ongoing. She’s making it clear that the central bank has

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned Monday that physical oil shortages will begin appearing globally due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, with Asian economies first to shrink as supply buffers are exhausted. Summary: Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said physical shortages in oil supply would begin appearing around the world as a result of

US Customs and Border Protection says the first electronic refunds from tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court will begin as early as May 12, with up to $166bn in collected duties subject to repayment. Summary: US Customs and Border Protection said on Monday that the first electronic refunds from tariffs ruled illegal by the

In bringing the cash rate back to 4.35%, the RBA will have essentially reversed its brief easing cycle in 2025. This will then bring interest rates back to the recent peak levels seen during 2024, which followed from rate hikes during 2022 to 2023. So much for being done with the battle against inflation, eh?

I’m so jaded at this point in the conflict that I don’t believe anything. The UAE initially said it shot down everything but it’s clear they didn’t. They noted they’d hit 3 loitering munitions, which were presumably drones. Obviously, they didn’t hit everything or we wouldn’t have seen the fires. What’s less clear is why

New York Fed President John Williams spoke before the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium: US monetary policy remains well positioned for uncertain economy No way to know yet how Iran war impact will play out for U.S. economy Risks to both sides of Fed’s mandates have increased Economy is presenting ‘unusual set of circumstances’ Market energy

Bank of Korea deputy chief Ryoo Sang-dai says it is time to consider rate hikes, with forward guidance set to turn hawkish at the May 28 meeting under new governor Shin Hyun-song. Summary: Bank of Korea senior deputy governor Ryoo Sang-dai said forward guidance would become more hawkish at the next policy meeting and that

Earlier: Tokyo’s $35bn intervention The intervention was last week, and Japanese authorities did caution there would be more if needed, saying Japan remains in close contact with US authorities on currency matters and they continues to view recent yen moves as speculative in nature. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first few being for EUR/USD, layered in between the current price at the 1.1700 and 1.1750 levels. Recent price action would suggest that the expiries may not have much impact though. The floor price remains closer to

A short time ago, there were unconfirmed reports of Iranian ballistic missile launches from Isafan province. The speculation at the time is that they were maritime targets. Iran’s Press also published videos of Iran firing ‘warning shots’ at US Destroyers near the Strait of Hormuz earlier today. There are now explosions reported in the Dubai

It’s all coming undone today. It looks like Iran sensed that something was coming and decided to strike first. The UAE’s oil export facilities were its first target as it tries to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. There are also videos of a cargo ship on fire. The US attempted to break the

Trump speaking to Fox News said Iran will be ‘blown off the face of the earth’ if the Islamic republic attacks US ships guiding vessels through Strait of Hormuz. A US official cited by Al Jazeera said that Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz is a defensive operation and we do not want to

The UAE is out with a statement condemning the attack as one of its ADNOC crude oil tanker was targeted by two Iranian drones off the coast of Oman. It is reported that no crew members were injured and that the vessel was not carrying any cargo at the time. This follows the he said,

Sector Overview The technology sector is experiencing a significant upward momentum with notable gains, particularly in software and infrastructure. Microsoft (MSFT) leads with a noticeable increase of 1.26%, while Oracle (ORCL) impressively surges ahead by 5.54%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor space presents a mixed picture; Micron Technology (MU) leaps by 7.29%, countered by declines in Broadcom

Opec+ will raise output by 188,000 bpd in June, but the move is largely symbolic while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed following the US-Israel attack on Iran in late February. Summary: Opec+ nations including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed to raise crude output by 188,000 bpd in June The

Ok, so now we know why Iran fired missiles and drones. A US Admiral via CENTCOM reports that the US destroyed six Iranian small boats that were approaching commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. There is also a headline saying citing a senior Iranian military official saying Iran has no plan to target the

I would be interested to see the math on Bessent’s calculation on how many barrels are missing. The outlines of it are usually that 20 mbpd goes through the Strait of Hormuz daily under normal conditions. Now that’s down to virtually zero, however Saudi Arabia fired up an east-west pipeline to the Red Sea and

US CENTCOM says military support for Project Freedom begins May 4, deploying guided-missile destroyers, 100-plus aircraft, unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members to the Strait of Hormuz. Summary: US Central Command announced it will begin supporting Project Freedom from May 4, per the CENTCOM post Military assets committed include guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land

The y/y was steady at 4.3% in April from 4.3% in March. Still rising inflation in Australia, just a littel more slowly according to the m/m figures. Earlier: CBA tips RBA rate hike tomorrow but warns Iran war makes it a close call. Split RBA board A third consecutive RBA rate hike tomorrow This article

ANZ sees Brent above $90 for 2026 with risk of $100-plus into 2027 South Korea’s central bank ready to turn hawkish as chip boom masks inflation pressure RBNZ board member Gai says Hormuz shock does not warrant reflexive rate hikes US Navy to shadow Hormuz convoys but stop short of direct escorts (Avios, echoing WSJ)

US-Iran news: Two missiles hit a US warship near Jask Island after it ignored Iran’s warnings – Fars Senior US official denies a US ship was hit by Iranian missiles – Axios UAE says its oil tanker was fired at by Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz Iran says will “respond harshly”, warns the

Manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 52.2 prelim Prior 51.6 Much like the country-level reports would suggest, it is all about stockpiling here. That is the main reason boosting euro area manufacturing activity in April as both output and new orders pick up, but arguably for the wrong reason. Of note, it is the first time since

Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 52.8 prelim Prior 50.0 The final report reaffirms a pick up in both output and new orders, increasing at the fastest pace since 1H 2022. All of this of course is linked to stockpiling as clients are rushing with advanced ordering in anticipation of price increases and availability issues. So again,

Japan likely spent up to $35bn intervening to support the yen, but Barclays warns depreciation pressure will persist over the medium term as Iran war energy costs weigh. Summary: The dollar had its largest weekly loss against the yen since February after Japan was reported to have intervened in foreign exchange markets, according to Reuters

A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared that any vessel violating the Islamic Republic’s maritime rules will be stopped by force. The warning, delivered through the state-linked Fars News Agency, serves as a direct challenge to a newly unveiled American initiative designed to break the maritime deadlock in the region. This comes

Trump: U.S. efforts to free the ships in the Strait of Hormuz will begin Monday morning Middle East time US will begin escorting ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. If this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Monday starts off quietly with no significant scheduled economic events, but the FX market will watch for any new developments regarding the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the RBA monetary policy announcement in Australia, while in the U.S., key releases will include the ISM services PMI, JOLTS job

Global Affairs Correspondent for Axios, Barack Ravid, said on X that a senior US official denied Iranian missiles hit a US warship. This has triggered a quick reversal in earlier moves after Fars News Agency reported that two missiles struck a US warship near Jask Island after it allegedly ignored repeated warnings to exit Iranian

Higher energy prices bound to spread to the rest of the economy Policy tightening in June is all but inevitable Increasingly likely that Europe is facing a prolonged period of broad-based price increases It is a slight contrast to what Villeroy said moments earlier in that the ECB needs “critical mass of data” before beginning

If you weren’t looking at your chart today, I would not blame you for missing this event from earlier. USD/JPY saw a quick dump from 157.20 to 155.69 in less than ten minutes as it appears to be another potential intervention play by Tokyo officials. The move seems consistent with the action that we’ve been

President Trump announced on Sunday that the United States would begin coordinating the movement of commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, launching an initiative he called Project Freedom and describing it as a humanitarian gesture toward neutral countries whose ships have been stranded by the conflict between Washington and Tehran. Wall Street Journal

Iran’s Fars News Agency reports that two missiles struck a US warship near Jask Island after it allegedly ignored repeated warnings to exit Iranian territorial waters. The incident marks a fracture in the fragile ceasefire that has been in place since early April and occurs just as the Trump administration launched Operation Project Freedom. The

This impacting opening prices in futures: Trump: US Navy will make effort to free up ships in Hormuz beginning Monday Mid East time Trump launches Project Freedom to escort ships out of Hormuz. Leaves Iran stranded. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 52.2 Key findings: April sees further, albeit slower, increases in output and new orders Business expectations turn negative for first time in 18 months Cost pressures and supply delays worst since 2022 Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The growth we’re seeing in the manufacturing sector appears to

Full report here The latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) showed a complex environment for the Eurozone economy in the short-term, characterized by higher inflationary pressures and softening growth. Professional forecasters have adjusted their expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), projecting a rate of 2.7% for

Prior 53.3 Swiss manufacturing activity shows a notable pick up in April but it could be a similar case to that in Spain here. That as clients pushed up activity in order to rush to secure stock, amid fears of supply shortages. That led to a notable increase in both output and new orders, which

For the y/y +12% prior +0.2% Other data, ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements for April -0.8% m/m prior –3.1% Earlier: Australia Monthly Inflation Gauge showed “Monthly inflation rose again in April” CBA tips RBA rate hike tomorrow but warns Iran war makes it a close call. Split RBA board A third consecutive RBA rate hike tomorrow This

Key takeaways for Today’s Bitcoin Analysis Bitcoin is trading near $80,328, up about 2.25% on the session. The daily read has turned meaningfully bullish, but the current daily candle is still early. The most important signal is the higher POC migration toward 80,150. The key support zone to watch is now 78,750 to 80,150. A

Prior -19.2 Euro area investor morale surprisingly picks up in May, indicating that investors do not expect a further escalation to the US-Iran conflict. There was one notable exception though, being Germany, with the index there falling further to -30.9 from -27.7 in April. Of note, the expectations index also showed an improvement as it

Japan holidays this week: May 4 (Monday) Greenery Day May 5 (Tuesday) Children’s Day May 6 (Wednesday) Constitution Memorial Day (May 3) observed China holidays this week: May 4 May 5 Data from Australia only today: The RBA is expected to raise its cash rate tomorrow, May 5. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Iran’s parliament security chief has rejected Trump’s Project Freedom plan for the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any US interference in the waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation. Summary: Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, issued a formal warning that any US interference in the emerging maritime framework of the Strait

ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027. A US-Iran peace deal could push Brent to $83-87. Summary: ANZ forecasts Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and in the range of $80

Inflation to accelerate in the coming months EBC’s Governing Council member Madis Muller expects inflation to accelerate in the coming months due to the US-Iran war. On Friday, Muller said in a blog post that a rate hike is now increasingly likely unless the conflict in the Middle East ends before the next meeting and

Prior 51.3 Key findings: Output rises at strongest rate in over three years, but demand softens Purchasing activity growth hits four-year record Delivery delays and cost inflation their greatest in nearly four years Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “On the surface, the Italian manufacturing sector signalled its best improvement in

RBNZ board member Professor Prasanna Gai says the Hormuz supply shock does not imply reflexive tightening, but has raised the neutral rate. Pre-emptive hikes are only warranted when synchronisation is high. Summary: RBNZ board member Gai said the model of the Strait of Hormuz shock does not imply a reflexive tightening bias, per remarks attributed

US officials say Navy ships will not formally escort commercial vessels through Hormuz but will remain nearby and share data on mine-free maritime lanes, according to two officials cited by Axios. Summary: The new US Hormuz initiative will not necessarily include Navy ships formally escorting commercial vessels, according to two US officials cited by an

Prior 48.7 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

All commercial ships and oil tankers must refrain from any movement along Strait of Hormuz without coordination with Iranian military Aggressive actions by the US will only “complicate current situation”, further endanger security of vessels Warns US navy to to approach or even consider entering Strait of Hormuz Will “respond harshly” to any threat of

UKMTO says it has received a report of an incident 78nm north of UAE’s Fujairah says a tanker has reported being hit by unknown projectiles, all crew are reported safe This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp to 4.35% in May 5, but warns the decision is line ball given Iran war inflation pressures and softening consumer sentiment. Summary: Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists forecast the RBA will raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May board meeting,

Trump is taking action: Trump: US Navy will make effort to free up ships in Hormuz beginning Monday Mid East time Over the weekend the news of a confrontation on a bulk carrier. A bulk carrier was attacked by multiple small craft 11NM west of Iran’s Sirik on Sunday, UKMTO said. All crew are safe.

Fed’s Kashkari says the Iran war raises inflation risks and may force rate hikes, adding the Fed cannot signal cuts are coming while the Hormuz strait remains closed. Summary: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage, limiting the Fed’s ability to provide clear rate

USD marked down a little. Weekend war news (in VERY brief), the two sides work towards an end: Iranpeace proposal, including a one-month deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end US naval blockade, end fighting in Iran and Lebanon Trump suggested it might not be enough I’ll have more to come on this separately

Sun: OPEC+ Mon: Holiday: UK May Bank Holiday, Holiday: Japan’s Greenery Day, Turkish Inflation (Apr), Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr), US Factory Orders (Mar) Tue: RBA Policy Announcement (May), BCB Minutes (Apr), Holiday: Japan’s Children’s Day, Swiss Inflation (Apr), US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr),

Trump: Tariffs on European cars and trucks coming into the US will increase to 25% Trump: Not satisfied with the latest Iran proposal, not sure we’re going to get a deal S&P Global Canada manufacturing PMI 53.3 vs 50.0 prior ISM Manufacturing index for April 52,7 vs 53.0 estimate Trump notified Congressional leaders today that

On the day: S&P 500 +0.3% Nasdaq Comp +0.9% DJIA +0.3% Russell 2000 +0.5% Toronto TSX Comp -0.2% On the week: S&P 500 +0.9% Nasdaq Comp +1.1% DJIA +0.5% Russell 2000 +0.9% Toronto TSX Comp flat Here is a look at the heat map for the week: This article was written by Adam Button at

Semafor reports: President Donald Trump notified Hill leaders on Friday, the 60th day of the Iran war, that US hostilities with Tehran are over — for now — and thus don’t need congressional authorization. There is some confusion about what the War Powers Act as it says the president needs to seek authorization from Congress

Well this is worrisome: Not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal Not sure we’re going to get a deal We’re negotiating by phone I just had a conversation with Iran We now have talks going on, they’re not getting there options: either blast them away or make a deal, when this war ends oil, gas and

We have a fresh report from the WSJ on the latest Iran proposal, which Trump already said he’s not happy with. The market is taking it positively as it says Iran is “offering hints of compromise in a bid to revive talks.” That’s clouded because it says the sides remain far apart on Hormuz and

Trump announced that he’s raising EU auto tariffs to 25% from 15% “next week” in a surprise move. “I am pleased to announce that, based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars

Iranian state media reports that Iran has submitted its latest peace proposal to the US via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices fell on this headline and S&P 500 futures are now up 23 points to 7268. The virtually identical report was also picked up by Axios’ US war mouthpiece Barak Ravid who writes: Iran delivered on

Pres. Trump on a Truth Social post says he will increase tariffs on European cars and trucks next week to 25% citing that they are not fully agreeing to the trade deal. Stocks have come off a bit on the news but they still remain in positive territory. The US dollar has also moved modestly

Highest since June 2022 New orders rise at fastest pace in over four years Output growth strongest since May 2022 as stockpiling drives demand Input cost inflation hits 3.5-year high on Middle East war, fuel and freight Output prices rise at fastest pace since late 2022 as firms pass through costs Vendor delivery times lengthen

The closure will be in observance of Labor Day and extends to all major European markets. Even the ECB’s payment and securities settlement systems will be down. As such, that will impact liquidity conditions as well. So, don’t expect any leading direction from Europe in driving broader markets for the session ahead. London will still

Bitcoin is pushing higher today, with price action gaining momentum as it breaks above both key short-term barometers—the 100-hour moving average at $76,638 and the 200-hour moving average at $77,267. That upside extension has carried the price to a session high of $78,924, bringing it right up against a critical technical level: the 50% retracement

Oil prices fell yesterday while stocks rallied in what may be attributed in part to month-end flows. But as we get into the new day, we’re still seeing equities hold steadier so far on the day. It may a more muted session with European markets closed, but US futures are holding the gains from yesterday

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. With European markets closed in observance of Labor Day, traders will be left to their own devices for the most part in the session ahead. As things stand, headline risks remain paramount with the US-Iran conflict continuing

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were two of the three dissenters to the Fed statement in a rare move. They’re both out with their reasoning. Kashkari: Pre-Iran: easing inflation and steady jobs pointed to gradual cuts Iran shock adds stagflation risk via oil and supply disruption Hammack: uncertainty up,

Now, this is more like it. In essence, the second round should be more effective given that speculators who have been burned will stay out of the way now. This is a quick 130-150 pips drop now in USD/JPY as the pair falls back to near yesterday’s lows. The low in the day before was

Prior month 52.3 last month. Summary of the details from the report PMI (Headline): 54.5 (vs 52.3 prior) → strongest expansion since May 2022 New Orders: Strong increase (4-year high) Driven mainly by domestic demand Exports weak (down for 11 straight months; tariffs + geopolitics) Output (Production): Sharp rise (strongest since April 2022) Largely tied

Prior month 52.7 manufacturing index 52.7 versus 53.0 estimate. Prices paid 84.6 versus 80.0 estimate and 78.3 last month. Employment index up 46.4 versus 49.0 estimate. Last month 48.7. New orders 54.1 versus 53.5 last month. Production 53.4 versus 55.1 last month. Supplier deliveries 60.6 versus 58.9 last month. Inventories 49.0 versus 47.1 last month.

Tokyo CPI, April 2026 is not going to rush the BoJ into rate hikes! Headline is 1.5% y/y expected 1.6%, prior 1.4% Core CPI (ex Food) 1.5% y/y, slowest since March 2022 expected 1.8%, prior1.7% Core-core (ex Food and Energy) 1.9% y/y expected 2.3%, prior 2.3% Just the data post. I’ll have more to come

Dallas Federal Reserve Pres. Lori Logan is exploiting her dissent at the FOMC meeting this week. The vote to keep rates unchanged was 8 to 4 with Fed Miran voting to cut rates while Fed’s Kashkari, Logan and voted to keep rates unchanged but to take out the easing bias from the official statement. Logan

The video above takes a detailed look of the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. On Wednesday, the Fed kept rates unchanged, but the decision revealed a notable divide beneath the surface. There were four dissenters in what was likely Powell’s final meeting as Chair. Hammack, Logan,

Tech stocks surge as healthcare faces setbacks The US stock market today painted a vibrant picture, with technology stocks roaring ahead, while the healthcare sector struggled to keep pace. Investors witnessed a mixed landscape where strategic choices may dictate future gains. 📈 Technology Sector: Leading the charge The tech sector stood out, bolstered primarily by

The USD is trading lower today as oil slips back below $100 and Treasury yields edge down. The 10-year yield is off -2.2 bps at 4.367%, while the 2-year is also down -2.2 bps at 3.865%. On the data front, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected but held above the 50 level—keeping the

Headlines: USD/JPY tumbles again after early bounce, Japan MOF back in the market? USD/JPY wipes out a chunk of the likely intervention play earlier, so what’s next? US futures keep steadier for now even as oil prices hold at the highs ECB policymaker Nagel says more appropriate to respond in June if outlook does not

Should not forget that baseline scenario already entails a more restrictive monetary policy It would be more appropriate to respond in June if outlook does not improve markedly Well, this just reaffirms the report from yesterday that policymakers were converging towards a June rate hike. The report even suggested that some policymakers were already on

Japan intervenes to defend yen and warns of further action over Golden Week Axios:Trump received briefing on plans for possible military action against Iran ASEAN ministers warn Middle East war threatens energy security and regional growth May meeting, RBA set for third straight hike as Hormuz closure drives inflation surge Japan manufacturing PMI hits 4-year

Inflation expectations need to be closely monitored for signs of de-anchoring Worried that energy prices may stay higher for longer without a clear timeline for end to Middle East conflict Will be paying close attention to indirect effects of higher energy prices That being how it contributes to cost-push inflation in production, transportation, services Potential

The major U.S. equity indices extended their rally into the close, capping off an impressive session—and an even more remarkable month. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite finished at fresh record closing highs, underscoring the strength of the broader market despite some notable weakness beneath the surface. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also

Axios reporter Barak Ravid: CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper and the chairman of the joint chiefs General Dan Caine briefed President Trump for 45 minutes today (Thursday US time) on new plans for possible military action against Iran, two U.S. officials said This is not really fresh news, we knew this was happening. This article

Choosing to keep the bank rate unchanged is not a passive choice It is a deliberate action in deciding to maintain interest rates as it is BOE does not want to lock itself in on interest rates, need to remain flexible Have stressed that we are ready to act if necessary The board has varied

When the drop happened yesterday, I wasn’t convinced that it was actual intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance. I’m sure I was not the only one who felt that way. After Katayama delivered her final warning, we saw USD/JPY initially fall from 160.50 to around 159.30 before tumbling quickly to around 158.00. It took over

Reuters poll: RBA to hike 25bps to 4.35% on May 5, say 30 of 33 economists. Over a third now see rates at 4.60%+ by year-end vs none in March. Strait of Hormuz closure keeps oil above $100; CPI at 4.1%. Summary: A Reuters poll of 33 economists conducted April 27 to 30 found 30

The price movements in USD/JPY in the past two days have been rather interesting. It has a certain feel that Tokyo is intervening but they don’t seem to be going as hard as they did before during previous episodes. That considering the fact we’re seeing USD/JPY bounce back quite “easily” yesterday and then now as

Japan intervened in the FX market — report Trump: Iran is dying to make a deal with us US initial jobless claims 189K vs 215K estimate US Q1 advance GDP +2.0% vs +2.3% expected US March PCE inflation +3.5% y/y vs +3.5% expected Canada February GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% expected ECB rate decision: No change,

Japan April manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs 51.6 in March, best since January 2022. Output fastest since Feb 2014 but driven by stockpiling. Supply delays worst in 15 years. Input costs at 3.5-year high. Business confidence near 5-year low. Summary: The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in April from 51.6 in March, its

Prior +0.9% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Apple Q2 EPS $2.01 vs est. $1.95; revenue $111.2B vs est. $109.5B. iPhone $57.0B misses on supply; Mac $8.4B beats; Services $30.98B beats. China $20.5B. $100B buyback. Summary: Apple reported Q2 fiscal 2026 EPS of $2.01, beating the $1.95 consensus, on revenue of $111.2 billion against estimates of $109.45-109.66 billion Net income came in at

Japan basically confirmed FX intervention for first time in nearly two years after yen breached 160/USD, sending it 3% higher to 155.5. Mimura warns further action possible during Golden Week. US and Japan in extremely close contact on markets. Summary: As flagged in our earlier coverage, Japan has now all but confirmed it intervened in

ECB holds rates as expected; June hike fully priced by markets. Deutsche Bank flags upside inflation risk and downside growth risk. Eurozone 1yr inflation expectations jump to 4.0%, highest since 2023. Credit conditions tightest since early 2024. Summary: The ECB kept policy rates unchanged at its latest meeting, a decision in line with market expectations,

Australia April manufacturing PMI 51.3 vs 49.8 in March, but headline flatters. Input costs fastest in 4 years, supply delays worst since July 2022. Output, new orders and employment all fell. Middle East war cited. Summary: The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in April from 49.8 in March, moving back above the

Japan’s senior currency official Atsushi Mimura refused to confirm or deny reports of yen intervention after the currency breached 160 per dollar, as the BoJ’s cautious stance, $120 oil and thin Golden Week liquidity keep the pressure firmly on. Summary: Atsushi Mimura, the Ministry of Finance’s top official responsible for international finance and currency policy,

This is a yen-negative, JGB-positive print in the near term. The magnitude of the miss on core-core, coming in at 1.9% against a 2.3% expectation and prior, is significant enough to give the BoJ genuine cover to delay a June hike despite the hawkish signals delivered at the April meeting. Rate markets will likely push

I don’t know how seriously you can take these kinds of comments. Iran in very bad shape Reiterates that they obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities Iran cannot be nuclear Iran drone and missile factories are down significantly Touts new stock market highs The blockade is incredible, Iran is now not getting any money from oil No

The $8,000 price target is conceptual rather than a formal forecast, but the structural argument underpinning it is difficult to dismiss. Central bank buying has been the dominant driver of gold demand since 2008, and the broadening of that buying beyond the major accumulators to include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Egypt suggests the

China begins 5 days of holidays today, back on May 6. From Japan we get Tokyo area CPI for April. I’ll have more to come on this separately. Yen traders will be grappling with the echoes of the intervention (1, 2) that drove USD/JPY down from 160. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Morgan Stanley pushes Fed cut forecast to Jan/March 2027, citing sticky inflation and hawkish FOMC drift. Euro seen decoupled from rate differentials on Middle East risk; dollar safe-haven bid dominates. Terminal rate seen at 3.0-3.25% Justin had the breaking on this yesterday: Morgan Stanley scraps call for Fed rate cuts this year More detail now:

The USDJPY moved sharply lower today, driven by renewed concerns over potential Bank of Japan intervention as the pair pushed above the 160.00 level. That warning was enough to trigger aggressive selling. The decline stalled just ahead of a key technical target—the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the February 12 low. That level

The stock market is a momentum-chasers’ dream right now. It’s increasingly clear that the backbone of the market rally is AI and nothing to do with the Iran war. Coming into this year there was a big fear about AI capex slowing down or a wall in AI models. Instead, we’re seeing some impressive rollouts,

The GBPUSD moved lower in the early European session, testing a key swing area between 1.3446 and 1.3465. That move also dipped below the key 100-day moving average at 1.3465, but sellers couldn’t sustain momentum. The low reached 1.3455 before buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher. Part of the reversal came as sharp

The Pakistani leaks are starting again and say they expect a revised Iranian proposal to end the war by the end of the week. We’ve certainly heard that kind of thing before but let’s hope it’s for real this time. That’s from MS Now who reports this: Two Pakistani officials in Islamabad with direct knowledge

Prior 0k Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3%; revised to 6.4% The struggle continues as the jobless figure rose by 20,000 on the month. So, that brings the overall number of unemployed persons to above 3 million now (3.006 million to be exact). Meanwhile, the jobless rate is keeping steady at 6.4% after

EPS 2.82 (exp. 2.63), Raises dividend +5% to 0.22/shr Total revenue came in at $109.90bn, beating the $107.1bn consensus estimate and representing approximately 22% growth year-on-year from $90.2bn in Q1 2025 Revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs reached $94.67bn versus a $91.57bn estimate Operating income of $39.70bn significantly exceeded the $36.19bn consensus forecast, pointing to margin

The S&P 500 has extended today’s gain to 38 points, or 0.5%. It has been 13 points lower at the lows as the market digests five big earnings reports from late yesterday and one from this morning. The reactions in those names: MSFT -5.5% META -8.9% GOOGL +7.7% AMZN -1.4% QCOM +16%. CAT +10.1% The

There is a good deal of space available to accommodate inflation pressures by not cutting interest rates as had been previously expected The necessary response by not cutting interest rates as was expected has largely achieved what is necessary under Scenarios A and B, without the need for further rate increases The sheer volatility of

The mega-cap technology trade is becoming more selective. GOOG/GOOGL is showing clear relative strength, while META is under pressure. MSFT has weakened across several timeframes, despite still being a core AI and cloud name. AMZN looks mixed rather than clearly bearish, with softness in the short term but strength over longer windows. For stock investors,

The Bank of England is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% today with one or two hawkish dissenters. At the last meeting, the BoE delivered a hawkish hold with unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged and the removal of the easing bias. Moreover, in the minutes, policymakers made it clear that they

Japan data, March 2026: Industrial Production (preliminary) -0.5% m/m expected +1.1%, prior -2.0% and +2.3% y/y prior +0.4% Manufacturers see April output -0.5% m.m (prior -2.6%) and May output +2.2% m/m – Retail Sales YoY +1.7% y/y expected +0.8%, prior -0.2% and +1.3% m/m prior -2.0% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I often write that the industrial revolution was the biggest thing to happen in human history but we might be re-writing history right now. I want to underscore the amount of spending that’s going into AI right now because the numbers are almost unfathomable, something I touched on yesterday. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta collectively

Nothing propping up JPY so far today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Wage tracker indicates easing labor costs Surveys indicate a rise in other costs Indicators of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months Short-term inflation expectations have moved up High energy costs make firms and households reluctant to invest Supply chains coming under pressure Economy was showing momentum before current turbulence The headlines from Lagarde’s

Prior +0.2% That’s a solid showing even as March data is likely weakened by the impact of the Middle East conflict. Relative to the same quarter a year ago, the quarterly performance here shows a 0.5% increase in GDP as well. The German stats office notes that both household and government final consumption expenditure expanded

BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in April meeting, as expected Dollar slides across the board after USD/JPY selling hits USD/JPY tumbles further after intervention warning earlier Tokyo officials give currency traders one final offramp BoE preview: will the central bank make another step towards a rate hike? Italy April preliminary CPI +2.8% vs

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic and contrasting performance across various sectors. Notably, healthcare and communication services are spearheading the market upswing. Lilly (LLY) bursts forward with a substantial 8.82% gain, establishing itself as a decisive leader in the healthcare sector. Similarly, Google (GOOGL) ascends 5.52%, fortifying investor confidence in communication services.

Prior +0.8% While still relatively impressive, the quarterly growth estimate marks a slight slowdown compared to Q4 2025. That being said, it’s not all too bad considering how economic activity in March is already starting to take a hit from rising energy prices. The pain spread in Spain perhaps is not as significant but still,

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Prior +0.3% The headline reading marks the biggest monthly jump in import prices since March 2022. And no surprises, it is largely due to a massive surge in energy prices (+33.6% on the month). The annual jump shows a 13.2% increase compared to March last year. And to put things into perspective, the last time

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 126.2bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The setup tonight is unusual. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet all report after the close within roughly the same five-minute window — and the options market is pricing meaningful, but uneven, dispersion across the three names. The straddles are sending mixed signals about where the real risk is hiding. Microsoft The implied move sits at 7.4%,

The euro is rising after ECB sources cited by Reuters said: June hike “very likely” and policymakers were in broad agreement Some already advocated for a hike (Lagarde hinted at this) Several Governors think at least two hikes will be needed unless the war ends and Brent quickly drops Governors discussed the required amount of

Powell said he will stay on as Governor for a period of time yet to be determined. He said he intends to keep a low profile. Powell said the decision was due to ‘unprecedented’ legal attacks and ‘ongoing threats’. This is a big move and it takes away a potential opportunity for Trump to install

Final Q4 GDP was +0.5% Consumer spending (PCE): +1.6% GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.6% vs +0.3% prior GDP price index (GDP deflator): +3.6% vs +3.8% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +4.3% vs +4.1% expected Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): Contributions to GDP in percentage points: Government +0.30 vs -1.03 prior Net exports

The White House is preparing markets for a prolonged squeeze on Iran. Under the plan being weighed, the US would maintain its naval blockade on Iranian ports while leaning on allies to raise the cost of Tehran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a senior administration official told the AP. Trump is reviewing multiple diplomatic

So there was a question about whether the move in the yen was due to the strong verbal intervention today, a rate check or actual intervention and it looks like we got our answer. A report in Nikkei says the Ministry of Finance intervened in the FX market to buy the yen (presumably via selling

Prior +0.2% GDP Y/Y +0.8% vs +0.9% expected Prior +1.2% These lower than expected figures further complicate ECB’s decision but points more towards a neutral stance with a slightly hawkish bias in case the war drags on for several more months. Bear in mind that GDP is expected to contract further in Q2 if the

ANZ NZ business survey, April 2026 Business Confidence is -10.6% prior +32.5% Activity outlook +19.5 prior +39.3 I’ll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 2.8% PCE m/m +0.7% vs +0.7% expected Prior +0.4% Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Core y/y +3.2% vs +3.2% expected Prior was +3.0% Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior +0.4% Consumer spending and income for February: Personal income +0.6% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month -0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Personal spending +0.9%

New Zealand business confidence collapsed from +32.5 to -10.6 in April as cost expectations hit a three-year high, though wage and pricing intentions were steadier, offering the RBNZ limited reassurance. ( Summary: ANZ’s business confidence index fell from +32.5 in March to -10.6 in April, a swing of 43 points, though ANZ noted late-March responses

The AUDUSD—like the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD—is trading right at a key technical crossroads, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages converged near 0.7159. That level is acting as the barometer for buyers and sellers. Over the last several hours, price action has chopped above and below that area—classic behavior for a market lacking directional

CPI +2.2% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +1.7% HICP +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.0% Food price inflation eased to 1.3% from 1.8% in March but services inflation picked up to 1.9% from 1.7% previously. The main culprit for the surge in inflation though remains energy prices, which are seen up 14.2% year-on-year. That

The JPY is the currency of the day after Japanese officials, including the finance minister, signaled they are closely monitoring FX moves for potential intervention. That came as the USDJPY pushed to new 2026 highs above 160.00—approaching levels last seen in 2024 and, before that, the 1980s. That warning shot mattered. After briefly breaking above

The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.00% today and keep the non-committal forward guidance by following a “data-dependent” and “meeting-by-meeting” approach. The focus will be mainly on the press conference where market participants will look for clues on the next ECB’s move, what the ECB’s reaction function will be

No comment on FX level In close contact with our US counterpart Closely coordinating with US based on our FX agreement in September last year This is my final warning before action The Japanese yen extended the gains following these comments from Mimura. Earlier we got a verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. This

Prior was +0.1% Canada’s economy expanded 0.2% in February, matching expectations and extending the goods-side rebound that has now driven growth for two consecutive months. The headline masks a more interesting story underneath: manufacturing roared back to life with its biggest monthly gain since January 2023. Manufacturing jumped 1.8% in February, with durable goods leading

Prior week 214K revised to 215K Iniital jobless claims 189K vs 215K estimate 4 week moving average 207.5K vs 211.00 last week Continuing claims 1.785M vs 1.815M estimate. Prior 1.808M 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.797M vs 1.809M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 18 were in New

Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 0-8-1 vs 0-8-1 expected (Pill voted to raise bank rate by 25 bps) Reasonable to hold bank rate at 3.75% given UK economic situation and Middle East uncertainty CPI likely to be higher this year as effect of higher energy prices passes through Our job is to make sure inflation

It’s about a 100+ pips drop in around ten minutes. I wouldn’t pin this as actual intervention but it might be another case of a ‘rate check’ being performed by Tokyo. The pair already dropped to around 159.20 from 160.50 levels earlier in the day, before a sharp drop now to test waters below the

China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in April from 50.8 in March, the strongest reading since late 2020, beating the 51.0 forecast, as output and new orders surged and input costs hit a four-year high. Earlier: China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 50.1) Non-manuf. 49.4 (exp 49.9) Summary: The RatingDog China General Manufacturing

Sees core PCE at 3.2% for March Sees PCE at 3.5% Near term inflation expectations have risen Jobs growth slowing reflects slower labor force growth Consumer spending is resilient Inflation elevated, in part reflecting energy price increase Every new Fed chair takes a look at communication I don’t know if the easing bias will be

Stronger verbal intervention sends the JPY higher. The 160.00 handle on USD/JPY is definitely the line in the sand for Japanese officials but we’ve seen time and time again that their interventions are useless given the negative macro backdrop. The BoJ this week left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected. The quarterly outlook

USD/JPY is now down 1.6% to 157.60 and that marks about a 300 pips decline from when Japan finance minister Katayama came out earlier to deliver one final intervention warning to markets. Of note, the pair is seeing a sharper decline in the past half-hour with that accounting for about half of the drop. But

Main refi rate unchanged at 2.15%, deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% Rates held steady as policymakers flag rising energy-driven inflation risks Middle East tensions push energy prices higher, complicating disinflation outlook No pre-commitment on rate path as data-dependent stance remains intact Short-term inflation expectations rise while longer-term views stay anchored Says ypside inflation risks and

The longer the Middle East conflict continues, the worse the impact will become Where we go from here will depend on the size and duration of energy price shock Monetary policy cannot stop higher energy prices from affecting UK economy, inflation More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

GOOG, MSFT, META: Options market braced for $1 trillion market cap swing after the bell Trump: It is a good time to cut rates Powell says he will remain as a Federal Reserve Governor Powell: Labor demand has softened clearly So long JPOW and thanks for all the memes What are the changes in the

In yesterday’s post, I flagged the 1.3709–1.3715 area as a key upside target (see: USDCAD moves to new session highs. Extends above 1.3700 and looks toward 1.3715), and the market delivered—but only partially. The high reached 1.3710, right into the lower end of that swing area, before sellers leaned and pushed the price back lower.

Central banks bought a net 244 tons of gold in Q1 2026, the fastest pace in over a year, as the March price slump drew in buyers led by Poland, Uzbekistan and China, World Gold Council data shows. Summary: Net official sector gold purchases totalled 244 tons in the first quarter of 2026, up from

Every beginner trader goes through the same cycle. If you’ve spent any time learning to trade, you’ve probably done this: you opened your charting platform, added a moving average, then a second one, then an RSI, a MACD, maybe some Bollinger Bands for good measure, and ended up staring at a chart that told you

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 161.00 level. It doesn’t tie to any technical significance and now with the pair breaking the 160.00 mark, it’s clear skies up ahead; barring Tokyo intervention that is. That is the only

New Zealand’s Finance Minister has overhauled the RBNZ’s MPC charter, making individual member votes public when consensus is not reached and requiring meeting records to attribute material differences in view, effective immediately. Summary: Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced that from today, individual MPC member votes will be published whenever the committee does not reach consensus,

I don’t envy being in the ECB’s position right now. The central bank already had to pause on rate cuts during the summer last year as inflation pressures stopped easing, especially in Germany. A modest economic rebound in the final quarter of last year helped to vindicate their decision to do so but now, everything

China’s official manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 50.1 in April from 50.4 in March, as Iran war-driven energy costs pressure factory margins, a Reuters poll of 27 economists shows. Summary: The official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 for April, down from 50.4 in March, according to the median estimate from a Reuters

Prior +2.6% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2 y/y expected Prior +2.3% Well, the headline reading is the highest since September 2023 and it reaffirms the impact of surging energy prices. When looking at core annual inflation, we’re still not seeing any spillovers yet as the reading there is softer than it was in March even.

S&P Global Rating Dog PMI April 2026 manufacturing PMI improves and beats at 52.2 expected 51.0, prior 50.8 Earlier: China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 50.1) Non-manuf. 49.4 (exp 49.9) I’ll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This follows from the Fed decision yesterday, which reflected a bit of an atypical dissent from a few policymakers. Of note, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan were vocal about not wanting to stick with a more easing bias at this stage. In case you missed it: FOMC decision: No change in rates as expected Besides that,

China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 expected 50.1, prior 50.4 Non-manufacturing 49.4 expected 49.9, prior 50.1 Composite 50.1 I’ll have more to come on this separately. — Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI still to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A note from ING with a take on China’s data today. China’s official manufacturing PMI held at 50.3 in April as export orders returned to growth for the first time since 2024, but the non-manufacturing PMI fell to a 40-month low of 49.4, exposing the weakness in domestic demand. Summary: China’s official manufacturing PMI edged

EPS 4.27 (exp. 4.05) Revenue of $82.89bn beat the $81.46bn consensus estimate, implying approximately 18% year-on-year growth from $70.06bn in Q3 FY2025 EPS of $4.27 exceeded the $4.03 estimate; operating income of $38.40bn cleared the $36.9bn forecast Azure and other cloud services grew 39% in constant currency, beating management’s own 37-38% guidance and reversing a

Prior -0.1%; revised to -0.3% Death, taxes, and German retail sales disappointing estimates. It’s almost the case every time, innit? This is a very, very poor reading with the annual estimate also now falling into negative territory (-2.0%) in real terms. This reflects the pessimism tied to the situation in the Middle East, with surging

From earlier: Japan’s Katayama: We are getting closer to taking decisive step in FX market Japan’s top currency diplomat issues final warning before action in FX market This time, they’re not beating around the bush and being very explicit about it. Essentially, they’re giving currency traders one final offramp to get out of the way

The Trump administration is seeking international partners for a “Maritime Freedom Construct” coalition to restore Hormuz navigation, a State Department cable shows, as peace talks stall and Trump signals the blockade could be extended indefinitely. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the info. Summary: A State Department cable sent to US embassies on Tuesday revealed plans

Prior +1.7% HICP +2.9% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +1.6% Headline annual inflation continues to run up as a result of surging energy prices and that is the case across every country at the moment. Of note, there is a sharp rise in the prices of unregulated energy products (+9.9%) and regulated energy products (+5.7%)

The above image is nearly three years old and — for me — it will be one of the defining images of covering Powell. It was the first time I made an AI image of someone that could be mistaken for a proper news photo. It’s virtually indistinguishable from a proper likeness, especially without knowing

Brazil’s Copom unanimously cut the Selic 25bp to 14.50% but offered no forward guidance, warning that future moves depend on the depth and duration of the Middle East conflict and that inflation projections are moving further from target. Summary: Copom cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% on Wednesday in a unanimous

Highlights of the Q1 report from Meta: Sees $58-61 billion next quarter vs $59 billion consensus Expects capex spend of $125-145B vs $115-135B previously The capex continues to go up, which is great news if you’re in the chip-making or data-center building business. The release specifically cited data center spending. That’s not so great for

The ECB is expected to hold rates at 2% on Thursday. Markets price a 10% chance of a hike today but look to June for the first move. Lagarde’s tone on inflation and the Middle East conflict will drive the euro’s reaction. Summary: The ECB is widely expected to hold its key deposit facility rate

The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on Thursday in an 8-1 vote, with new forecasts set to show higher inflation and weaker growth as the MPC assesses the Iran war’s economic fallout. Earlier: Bank of England rate decision may spring a split vote surprise, HSBC warns Summary: All 62

Prior +0.3% More to come… This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.2% The French economy stagnates in the first quarter of the year and that’s not a great sign, even if conditions in March was weakened by the Middle East conflict. Surging energy prices will continue to have a stronger impact in April and that will leave a bigger market on the economy in Q2.

Goldman Sachs says the UAE’s OPEC exit poses greater medium-term than short-term oil supply upside risk, with UAE crude production potential estimated at just over 4.5 million bpd, constrained near-term by Hormuz closure. Summary: Goldman Sachs said the UAE’s OPEC exit, effective May 1, poses a greater upside risk to oil supply over the medium