Prior 57.1 The good news is that Spain’s services sector continues to maintain growth conditions to start the year. However, there is a notable downshift with the reading here well missing on estimates. Sluggish demand was to blame with an easing of new business growth, the weakest since June last year. That aside, employment growth […]

Breaking. The talks were reportedly cancelled because Iran refused to engage in non-nuclear issues, according to Axios. We heard earlier that talks wouldn’t be about ballistic missile stockpiles but the US seemed to accept that at the time. Evidently, they’ve had a change of heart or the reporting was wrong. I flagged a few weeks

Prior was -2295K This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke with China’s President today on the phone and the readout from the call from Trump is positive. That’s led to some small ticks in equity markets. I have just completed an excellent telephone conversation with President Xi, of China. It was a long and thorough call, where many important subjects were discussed, including

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continues to rebound after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data with the recent US ISM Manufacturing PMI potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will

Even though Donald Trump became U.S. president, which analysts considered the most favorable option for Elon Musk and his companies, 2025 was a poor year for Tesla, with annual revenue falling 3% to $94.8 billion and fourth-quarter car sales dropping 11% year-on-year. That said, the numbers were better than market expectations: Quarterly earnings per share

Business activity index 57.4 vs 54.4 prior Employment 50.3 vs 52.0 prior New orders 53.1 vs 57.9 prior Prices paid 66.6 vs 64.3 prior Supplier deliveries 54.2 vs 51.8 prior Inventories 45.1 vs 54.1 prior Backlog of orders 44.0 vs 42.6 prior New export orders 45.0 vs 54.2 prior Imports 48.2 vs 50.3 prior Inventory

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we will get the final services PMI for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The market reacts the most to new information, so the Flash data is more important than the final PMIs. Therefore, unless we get big deviations, the market reaction will likely be muted. The main

Prior was +41K (revised to +37K) Goods +1K versus -3K last month Service +21K versus +44K last month small business 0K vs +9K prior medium businesses +41K vs +34K last month large businesses -18K vs +2K last month Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.4% last month Wages for job changers 6.4% vs 6.6% last

The won steadied as plans for NPS dollar bond issuance raised hopes of reduced FX pressure. Summary: South Korea’s won pared losses after reports the NPS may issue dollar bonds Pension fund aims to diversify funding amid FX volatility Dollar bond issuance could ease pressure on the won Review of FX hedging strategy now under

Headlines: Decisive moment for gold as the recovery continues Gold remains in recovery mode as it halves the losses; risk of another flush still high USD/JPY continues to test the limits of Japan’s patience this week GBPUSD trades near the 2025 highs as the focus turns to the US data and the BoE decision Eurozone

Prior +1.9%; revised to +2.0% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.3% The headline reading meets estimates with core annual inflation easing slightly in January. That being said, just be wary that Eurostat has introduced some methodological changes to the inflation estimates as of this report, as seen here. Overall, the changes in

Prior 51.4 Final Composite PMI 53.7 vs 53.9 prelim Prior 51.4 Key findings: Output growth rebounds to a five-month high Solid increase in new work Job losses continue, despite improved business optimism Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The latest survey revealed an encouraging start to 2026 for the UK

Nomura sees Japan’s rate cycle extending into 2027, with risks tilted toward a higher terminal rate. Summary: Nomura sees a high probability of further BoJ tightening through 2027 Base case assigns 60% odds to three rate hikes by mid-2027 Policy rate would rise to 1.50%, the highest level since 1995 A hawkish scenario sees four

China’s services sector started 2026 on firmer footing, though confidence remains cautious despite easing cost pressures. Via private survey RatingDog / S&P Global. Summary: China’s services sector accelerated to a three-month growth high in January New business and export orders strengthened at the start of 2026 Employment rose for the first time in six months

New Zealand Q4 2025 employment report and China’s private survey services PMI feature on the calendar today. New Zealand’s labour market is expected to show signs of stabilisation in the December quarter, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain steady at 5.3%. Recent higher-frequency indicators suggest a modest pickup in employment growth over recent months,

China’s export-driven yuan gains are set to continue in 2026, but policymakers are poised to cap the pace of appreciation. Summary: Analysts expect the yuan to strengthen further in 2026, but policy resistance remains Export inflows and FX conversions have surged to record levels Consensus forecasts cluster near 6.9 per dollar, with upside risks flagged

A Powell pardon would not break the Senate logjam, with Tillis holding firm until the Fed probe concludes. Summary: Senator Tillis says a Powell pardon would not lift his Fed nominee blockade He insists the Justice Department investigation must conclude first Tillis’ stance continues to stall Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process Republicans lack the votes to

The pair is quietly one of the more notable movers in the major currencies space today, with USD/JPY up over 100 pips to 156.70 levels now. After the speculated ‘rate checks’ on 23 and 27 January, it has been a quick recovery as the yen fails to hold onto gains. As a reminder, Japan authorities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been in recovery mode in this first half of the week after experiencing one of the worst drawdowns in decades. The fundamentals are still against rising prices, so we either get stuck in a wide range below the January’s high or will see another flush lower in the next weeks or

The sharp pullback since last week is not deterring gold buyers whatsoever and we’re already seeing that in the price action over the past two days. The recovery is looking solid and we’re now approaching a decisive moment on the charts for the precious metal as outlined here. As the parabolic surge higher cools and

The over 2% gains so far today brings gold back above the crucial $5,000 mark. That’s a big psychological win for dip buyers but even more so when you look at the charts. After the sharp pullback from Thursday last week to Monday this week, we are seeing a solid recovery in precious metals in

US House votes to end government shutdown Fed’s Barkin: Inflation remains above target, expect more progress Fed’s Miran: I think we need to cut rates by about a percentage point this year US military shot down Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier – report BoA: global equity ‘risk-love’ metric hits euphoria levels Markets: Gold

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for EUR/USD and currently sandwiching the current spot price, with the expiries resting at 1.1800 and 1.1850. They’re not ones that tie to any technical significance but could act as bookends for price action in

Via oil price dot com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.5 mn barrels Distillates -2.3 mn bbls Gasoline +1.4 mn — The inventory data referenced here comes from a privately conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which polls oil storage facilities, refiners, and other industry participants on a voluntary

Earlier: Yuan seen rising in 2026, but China signals resistance to rapid gains The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed

South Korea’s won firms as pension fund weighs dollar bond issuance Bank of England set to hold rates February 5 as inflation cools but wage risks linger Markets cautious on Warsh-led Fed outlook as rate pricing holds steady China services PMI rises to three-month high as demand and hiring improve Nomura sees BoJ rates rising

Australia’s services sector surged to a near four-year growth high in January, but softer confidence signals caution beneath the strong activity rebound. Summary: Australia’s services sector posted its strongest growth in nearly four years in January New business rose at the fastest pace since April 2022, including stronger export demand Hiring accelerated for a second

New Zealand Q4 2025 employment report. This is just the data post. I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s Q4 jobs data showed improving labour momentum beneath a higher jobless rate, leaving policy expectations largely unchanged. Unemployment rate hit a decade high at: 5.4% (prior 5.3%; exp 5.3%; RBNZ forecast 5.3%) Employment change: +0.5% q/q (prior 0.0%; exp +0.3%; RBNZ forecast +0.2%) Participation rate: 70.5% (prior 70.3%; exp 70.3%; RBNZ forecast 70.3%)

China’s central bank said it will inject 800 billion yuan via a three-month outright reverse repo, using a tool introduced in late 2024 to keep banking system liquidity ample without changing benchmark interest rates. Summary: PBOC announced a large three-month liquidity injection Operation uses outright reverse repos introduced in late 2024 Move aims to keep

It was a poor day for US equities in general, with tech shares leading the declines. The S&P 500 closed down by 0.8% with the Nasdaq down by 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Dow fared better in closing down by just 0.3%. What is interesting about the selloff yesterday is how tech-heavy they were for the most

Rose 2.0% m/m in January prior -2.1% In NZD terms the index rose 1.3% m/m stronger NZD offsetting higher commodity prices overseas Earlier: New Zealand jobs report shows firmer hiring but unemployment edges to a 10 year high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

AMD beat Q4 forecasts but cautious guidance dented confidence as investors pushed for faster AI upside. Summary: AMD beat Q4 earnings and revenue expectations Guidance disappointed, triggering a sharp after-hours sell-off AI revenue momentum lagged high-end investor expectations China demand contributed materially to AI chip sales Management reaffirmed ambitious long-term AI growth targets Advanced Micro

The BoE is set to hold rates steady, with messaging and the vote split key to near-term market reaction. Summary: Bank of England expected to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% Inflation set to fall sharply, but wage growth remains a concern Guidance likely to stay vague and data-dependent Vote split and tone seen as

Views are mixed on a Warsh-led Fed, with rate pricing steady but conviction limited. Summary: Investor views on a Warsh-led Fed remain mixed rather than uniform Some participants see scope for a dovish narrative centred on productivity gains Fed funds futures continue to imply two cuts this year, though conviction appears limited Warsh is widely

It’s never a dull moment in these markets. Bitcoin fell to the lowest since Trump was re-elected earlier today, touching $72,903. That was below the Liberation Day low and painted an ugly potential candle on the chart. But it may have been a trap. After the weak hands were shaken out, the buyers stepped in

Earlier: PBOC to inject 800 billion yuan via three-month reverse repo operation Yuan seen rising in 2026, but China signals resistance to rapid gains The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9397 Injects 75bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% This article was written

Japan’s services-led recovery gained pace in January, though confidence remains cautious despite easing cost pressures. Summary Japan’s services sector growth accelerated to an 11-month high in January New orders and export demand strengthened alongside rising backlogs Employment continued to expand as firms responded to higher workloads Input cost inflation eased to its softest pace in

It’s getting uglier by the moment in US stock markets. The S&P 500 is down 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite is down 2.2%. The big drags are software stocks and Some notable declines: Paypal -20% Shopify -11% Accenture -10% Qualcomm -5% Oracle -4.6% Nvidia -3.6% Microsoft -3% Amazon -3% Meta -2.6% Google -1.5% Tesla -1.2%

Non-farm payrolls and JOLTS were delayed this week but they will soon be rescheduled. The House ended the US government shutdown and surely the Senate will now follow. The vote was 217-214. I don’t think this will lead to much relief in the market as the deal was flagged on the weekend. Trump on Friday

Bitcoin is being sucked lower in a broad risk-off trade that’s also hammering the Nasdaq. Bitcoin is down 4.4% now to $74,969. On the breaks the big figure, it could quickly test the weekly low of $74,564. A fall below that would be the lowest since November 2024, just before the US election. The Trump

According to a note from Bank of America, their proprietary Global Equity Risk-Love indicator just surged to the 95th percentile last week. It’s an indicator that indicator tracks a basket of sentiment drivers including positioning, put-call ratios, investor surveys, price technicals, volatility, spreads, and correlation measures. Right now, the reading is screaming “Euphoria.” As you

US January ISM manufacturing index 52.6 vs 48.5 expected January final US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.9 prelim Fed’s Bostic: Inflation is to stay high and is a source of concern Non-farm payrolls delayed: US won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday Trump: I’m reducing tariffs on India to 18%

OpenAI’s reported chip review highlights mounting pressure on AI hardware vendors as inference speed and efficiency become critical competitive battlegrounds. Summary: OpenAI is assessing alternatives to Nvidia’s latest AI chips for some workloads Review has been underway since last year, according to sources Focus is on inference speed for complex ChatGPT queries Reflects rising pressure

Warsh is a fantastic choice to lead the Fed Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year Underlying inflation is not a problem Market yields haven’t gone up by that much Better growth in the future doesn’t need higher interest rates Not reading a lot into metal market volatility In the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong

Oil prices have jumped on this headline and stocks are at the lows of the day. The latter was already underway but the oil price jump was more noticeable. The market is acting like this was some kind of averted Pearl Harbor when it was probably a drone miles away. I wouldn’t get too excited

I’ve been mulling the real US economy all day because with all the hoopla around gold, Trump and a war with Iran, the market is losing focus on the power of interest rates and the mountains of cash that Congress have shovelled towards the real economy. One notable barometer is the Dow Jones Transportation Average,

📊 Tech sector dips while semiconductors and Amazon soar: A market snapshot Sector Overview Today, the technology sector is facing a challenging landscape, marked by declines in major stocks like Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT), each dropping by 1.24% and 1.14% respectively. However, the semiconductor industry offers a more optimistic picture with Broadcom (AVGO) emerging

HFM begins 2026 by announcing the release of its latest Trading Courses and a new eBook. HFM aims to reinforce the company’s commitment to empowering traders through high-quality education. Products have been put together for both beginners and experienced traders. The new Trading Courses cover essential market concepts, practical trading strategies, and risk management techniques.

USDJPY looks poised to revisit the intervention level as US data strengthens Oil prices plunge as US-Iran risks ease; market remains supported amid demand outlook The sharp pullback in precious metal takes a breather for the time being The Indian Rupee surges against the Dollar as Trump announces trade deal and lower tariffs The Australian

US equity markets have quickly turned lower after a positive open and it’s largely being driven by tech. The Nasdaq is now down 1% and some laggards include: PYPL -17.7% INTU -1.8% MU -5.1% ADBE -4.9% NVDA -2.8% MSFT -2.2% ASML -3.6% Those big losers obscure some large gains on the other side of the

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is going to be the French CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.6% vs 0.8% prior, while the HICP Y/Y is seen at 0.6% vs 0.7% prior. Unless we see big deviations, the data is unlikely to change much for the ECB. As a

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. It’s not one that ties too closely to any key technical levels but could help to limit upside extensions later on in the session, if any. The pair has been

RBA unanimous 25bp hike, lifts inflation forecasts and signals more tightening in 2026 RBA raises its cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%, as widely expected China’s NPC Standing Committee to hold meeting on February 4 (ahead of full March 5 meet) Japanese stocks surge as tech rebounds, banks boost risk appetite. KOSPI rockets. ANZ sees

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.4% vs +0.6% y/y expected Prior +0.7% The estimates here are much softer than anticipated, with the headline reading being the weakest since December 2020. As always is the case, core annual inflation matters the most and we’ll get a sense of that in the final reading the next time. But at

German 30-year bund yields just rose to the highest since 2011, at 3.55% in something of a warning sign but let’s keep things in perspective: US 30-year rates are nearly 5%. It’s not a borrowing crisis but it is working against ECB rates, which aren’t likely to be lowered further after a series of cuts

Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US as envoys prepare to meet in Istanbul, even as military tensions and strike risks remain elevated. Summary: Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US amid rising military pressure Senior US and Iranian envoys are expected to meet in Istanbul later this week Talks come

China’s NPC Standing Committee to hold meeting on Feb 4 The NPC Standing Committee meeting on 4 February looks procedural rather than macro-moving, based on the proposed agenda flagged by state media: lawmakers are set to review a report on NPC deputy qualifications. That said, markets still pay attention because “Standing Committee” meetings can sometimes

ANZ expects the RBA to lift rates by 25bp in February, while stressing the move would be framed as cautious and data dependent rather than the start of a tightening cycle. Summary: ANZ expects the RBA to hike rates by 25bp at its February meeting Sticky trimmed mean inflation and a tight labour market underpin

Richmond Fed President Barkin is usually a good barometer on where the core of the FOMC stands. Rate cuts so far have helped insure health of job market while Fed completes “last mile” of returning inflation to target. Economy remains “remarkably resilient.” Given growth, low unemployment rate, hard to imagine either businesses or consumers moving

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong

The Reserve Bank of Australia decision today is the focus, due at 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time: Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decision RBA preview: Focus on the forward guidance RBA tipped to hike – poll Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The volatile moves since the latter stages of last week is cooling but it doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet. For now at least, gold and silver is at least seeing the sharp pullback take a bit of a breather. However, it doesn’t mean that all is good again to resume the

The RBA delivered a unanimous 25bp hike tio take the cash rate back up to 3.85% and upgraded its inflation profile, with the SMP implying further tightening in 2026 even as the Bank kept guidance explicitly data dependent. First rate hike since 2023 and after an easing cycle. Summary: RBA hiked and it was unanimous,

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

From yesterday: Non-farm payrolls delayed: US won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday This will just continue to paint a bad image on the incumbent US administration, with this adding to the delays from the longest federal government shutdown in US history late last year. The BLS has said that the latest

Japan kept intervention ambiguity intact while leaning on US coordination language and downplaying any suggestion the government is cheerleading a weaker yen. Summary: Japan’s finance minister avoided confirming or denying any FX intervention activity She pushed back on the idea that PM Takaichi was “talking up” a weak yen Officials again refused to discuss specific

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices plunged yesterday at the open following a couple of positive developments over the weekend. In fact, a top Iranian security official said that a structure for negotiations with the US was being set up and Trump confirmed later that Iran was seriously talking to US. Moreover, an Iranian official stated that

We are headed towards a surveillance state, simple as that. The combination of cameras and microphones everywhere, combined with AI to parse it all, makes the power of mass surveillance too alluring for the government to ignore. And Palantir is right there to help out. Already, there are reports that ICE is using Palantir technology

NZ data. Excluding apartments, flats, and retirement village units, the number of consents for new houses was down 6%. +26.2% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

We are still looking to bring inflation down without sacrificing much The economy is actually in a really good position The labour market is really strong and domestic demand is recovering But it is just that we’re supply constrained, and it might be more so than what we thought a while back We’re still adopting

The decision to hike the cash rate was unanimous as the RBA produces a more hawkish tilt in their decision today. While the decision to hike in itself isn’t surprising, it is more so the language that is accompanying the decision that is moving markets. The RBA went from trying to sell a narrative of

It will now take longer for inflation to return to the target And this is no longer an acceptable outcome We cannot allow inflation to get away from us again The pickup in inflation is not down to just one factor It is due to a combination of factors across a broad range of components

Reserve Bank of Australia decision. I’ll have more to come on this separately. Background: ANZ sees RBA 25bp rate hike today, but no commitment to further tightening Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decision RBA preview: Focus on the forward guidance RBA tipped to hike – poll Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold

Goldman Sachs says gold’s rally is structurally driven by central bank dollar diversification, not speculative excess, supporting a long-term role for the metal in portfolios. Summary: Goldman Sachs sees gold’s surge as structurally driven, not speculative excess Central bank diversification away from the US dollar is the key catalyst Gold markets are small, amplifying the

Palantir 4Q adj EPS 25C, est. 23C Palantir 4Q Rev. $1.41B, est. $1.33B Palantir Outlook 2026 Rev $7.182 bln – $7.198 bln vs estimate $6.22 bln Positive for Palantir Tech (PLTR) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese and South Korean equities rebounded sharply as tech stocks and bank earnings lifted risk appetite across the region. Summary: Japanese equities rebounded sharply, led by tech and bank stocks Nikkei jumped over 3% as risk appetite improved and AI names rallied Strong bank earnings, including Mizuho, added to upside momentum South Korea’s KOSPI surged

Australian December 2025 building permits: The Reserve Bank of Australia decision today, due at 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time: Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decision RBA preview: Focus on the forward guidance RBA tipped to hike – poll Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold This article was written by Eamonn

The Reserve Bank of Australia could be the first major global central bank to hike rates in this cycle. We are set to get a decision on the cash rate at 10:30 pm ET and the consensus is for a 25 basis point hike to 3.85%. It’s far from a sure thing as economists only

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system. Allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” Previous close 6.9444 Injects 105.5bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pushed back on reports questioning Nvidia’s role, saying the company “loves working with Nvidia” and expects to remain a major customer long term, dismissing speculation around chip dissatisfaction as overblown. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump’s critical mineral reserve plan aims to build an “industrial buffer stock” model, using Exim-linked financing plus private capital to reduce supply-chain shock risk. Summary: Donald Trump announced a US “critical mineral reserve” initiative, aimed at securing supplies for domestic industry. The plan is framed as a strategic stockpile (often reported as “Project Vault”) to

The US-India trade deal cuts tariffs sharply in exchange for India ending Russian oil imports, easing pressure on Indian exports while reshaping energy flows. Summary: US and India reached a trade deal cutting US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% The US will remove a punitive 25% tariff tied to India’s Russian oil purchases India

We are into the swan song phase of Bostic’s term as Atlanta Fed President as he will retire on February 28 so I wouldn’t put too much weight on these comments: Not through with inflation from tariffs It’s a huge undertaking for Warsh, I wish him the best. He’s got a tall task To have

I highlighted the opportunity in the beaten-up US manufacturing economy earlier today and a pair of reports today underscored the green shoots in an area that’s been in recession for years. First, the S&P Global look at US manufacturing was revised in the final report, then the ISM manufacturing survey rose at its fastest pace

Prior was 47.0 Key findings: Input cost inflation ticks up to 37-month high Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This smells a bit like a recovery could be underway. Output has rebounded rather swiftly from the drop in December, optimism about future output has

Prior 47.9 Key findings: Softer falls in output and total new orders Outlook brightens as employment rises for first time in four months Charge inflation returns as cost burdens rise at fastest rate in over three years Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italian manufacturing began

Silver experienced its worst single-day loss in over four decades last Friday, plummeting nearly 30% to settle just below $85/oz. Gold didn’t escape the carnage either, shedding more than $500/oz to close at $4,865/oz. Despite the dramatic selloff, Scotia Capital’s precious metals team is viewing this as a healthy correction rather than a fundamental shift

Summary: China’s official PMI data point to persistent domestic weakness at the start of 2026, according to analysis from ING. The official manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction, reinforcing doubts that December marked a genuine turning point. Price indicators showed tentative improvement, offering some relief from deflation concerns. Private-sector PMI data painted a more constructive

Trump writes on Truth Social that he’s reducing tariffs on India, which should be another positive for risk appetite: Tariffs lowered to 18% from 25% India to halt Russian oil imports in favor of US and potentially Venezuelan supplies to reduce conflict funding. India to “move forward” to reduce their tariffs and non tariff barriers

A snapshot of the closing levels: STOXX 600 +1.0% German DAX +1.0% Frances CAC +0.8% UK FTSE 100 +1.1% Spain’s IBEX +1.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.1% There as a nice turnaround in European stocks today, which traded in lockstep with the improvement in US futures and equity markets. The early poor mood carried over from

Time to revise the US economic calendar as the The Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday because of the government shutdown. Politicians say they will vote to end the shutdown on Tuesday so the market isn’t too fussed but this is annoying. Tuesday’s JOLTS report has also

Prior was 47.9 Prices paid 59.0 vs 59.0 expected (58.5 prior) Employment 48.1 vs 44.9 prior Production 55.9 vs 50.7 prior New orders 57.1 vs 47.7 prior (revised to 47.4) Look at that jump in new orders, which is the biggest jump in a month since 2020. That’s also the best reading since 2022. Comments

Credit Agricole notes that a lot of the negatives surrounding the US dollar are now priced into the currency already. And given the circumstances in play, that provides a scope for the greenback to rebound in perhaps the coming three to six months period. The firm argues that despite upgrading their forecast for gold this

Best reading since May 2022 Prelim was 51.9 Prior was 51.8 Exports remained a source of demand weakness, The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour and is expected to tick up to 48.5 from 47.9. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “News of the joint largest

China’s January PMI data point to a soft start to 2026, with weak domestic demand offsetting pockets of resilience in high-tech manufacturing. Summary: China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction in January, underscoring persistent domestic demand weakness at the start of 2026. Services and construction activity also fell into contraction, marking the weakest non-manufacturing

Oracle plans a $45–50bn capital raise in 2026 to fund cloud infrastructure expansion, splitting funding between equity and a one-off bond issuance. Summary: Oracle plans to raise $45–50bn in 2026 to expand Oracle Cloud Infrastructure capacity. Funding will be split roughly evenly between equity and debt. Equity raising includes mandatory convertibles and up to $20bn

Prior 48.8 Euro area manufacturing activity ticks up in January, moving closer to the growth threshold. Of note, manufacturing output increased in January for the tenth time over the past eleven months. However, the mood was slightly dampened by a fall in new factory orders since December. Overall, job losses also gathered pace but at

Monday kicks off with manufacturing PMI releases for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S., while Tuesday, attention will turn to Australia with the RBA’s monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., Tuesday will bring the JOLTS job openings report and New Zealand will publish its employment change q/q, the unemployment rate, and the labour cost

Prior 49.6 This marks another marginal decline in Spain’s manufacturing activity, with the steepest decline in new orders for nine months seen. That was led in part by an accelerated downturn in export volumes. But overall, at least output conditions are seen stabilising on the month. Besides that, cost pressures were seen intensifying with cuts

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.5% German retail sales closes out the year with a marginal increase, with the December estimate also being 1.5% higher than the same month a year ago. Overall in 2025, retail sales were seen up 2.7% compared to 2024 in real terms. In nominal terms, that figure reflects a 3.8% growth

Prior 50.6 Key details: New export orders rise for first time in four years Business optimism at highest level since before 2024 Autumn budget Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2026, showing encouraging resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions. Rates of output and

Bitcoin Price Prediction Focuses on $70,900 to $72,645 Support Zone Key takeaways for crypto traders and investors Bitcoin futures are down roughly 10%, extending a developing bearish structure Order flow shows sellers in control, with buyers increasingly passive Recent rebounds lacked acceptance and failed to repair market structure Downside risk remains elevated unless behavior changes

I saw some interesting charts last week showing that Florida housing inventory was trending lower. It went against one of the strongest macro trends in the past two years — housing weakness. Now it’s early days but that’s a theme worth exploring as there are some beaten up assets in the housing space and a

Today’s stock market exhibits a mix of excitement and trepidation as major movers and sectors paint a varied picture. While certain stocks encounter challenges, others revel in unexpected gains, crafting an intriguing trading landscape. 🚗 Auto Manufacturer Impact: Tesla Takes a Dive A significant focal point is the 2.95% dive seen in Tesla (TSLA). The

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The final two days of last week will go in the history books. Gold fell by more than 16% in just two days and extended the losses to 21% today. The risks for a correction were everywhere as the conditions didn’t justify the parabolic surge of the last two weeks. The market got

The Friday move was one for the ages and even then, it still hasn’t put a bad mark to gold and silver’s performance to start the year. Even with the drop on Friday and the one today, gold is up some 8% so far in 2026 and silver up a little more closer to 9%.

It is still a volatile environment with the heavy selling hitting earlier just now at the tail end of Asia trading. But as we shift to European morning trade, we’re seeing buying appetite return so far on the session. Gold is up over $350 from its lows, cutting losses to “only” 2.6% on the day

Headlines: Precious metals bounce back to trim losses on the day Has the bull market in gold ended? History suggests yes European stocks turn things around after a rough start to the new week USD/JPY inches up to start the day after Takaichi kerfuffle What’s at stake now as the US partial shutdown drags to

Prior 50.7 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we will get the final PMIs for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. The market reacts the most to new information, so the Flash data is more important than the final PMIs. Therefore, unless we get big deviations, the market reaction will likely be muted. The data is

Australian job ads surged in January, signalling renewed labour demand and reinforcing expectations the RBA may need to tighten policy. Summary: Australian job advertisements surged 4.4% m/m in January, snapping a six-month run of declines and marking the strongest monthly gain in four years. The rebound adds to evidence the labour market remains resilient despite

The start of the day was a rather poor one for major indices in Europe. That as risk sentiment was on the rocks after some heavy selling in Asian equities as well. The turbulent environment across broader markets didn’t help with Nvidia pulling investment on OpenAI, volatile selling in precious metals, cryptocurrencies coming under pressure,

Nasdaq futures have staged a rebound from the lows, but broader orderFlow context suggests this move remains corrective inside a bearish auction, rather than the start of a sustained bullish phase. But first, I dive into the bigger picture of the Nasdaq futures in my video below, enjpy: Video walkthrough: Key Nasdaq futures levels and

The mood in the air this time around is vastly different to the shutdown we saw at the end of last year. That is because this latest episode is widely expected to end swiftly and also it does not include the whole of the US government. For some context, the funding process had been moving

Prior 45.8 Swiss manufacturing activity continues to bounce back modestly but still continues to be in contraction territory for now. That being said, the output component is at least seen improving to 50.8 in January. And that marks the first return to the growth threshold for production since August last year. Procure does not that

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons

Earlier: China Pres Xi revive push for yuan as reserve currency The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system. Allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” Previous close 6.9566 Injects 75bn yuan in 7 RRs @ 1.4% (net 75.5bn drain after maturities today) This

Japan’s election-driven fiscal debate is keeping bond and FX markets on edge, with any hint of looser policy risking renewed volatility. Summary: Japanese markets remain highly sensitive to fiscal policy signals ahead of the February 8 snap election, according to a former senior currency official. Any expansion of tax relief risks renewed selling pressure in

Over the weekend, Japan prime minister Takaichi spoke about the yen currency’s weakness in saying that it has been beneficial for exporters. It’s not the kind of bias you would want to hear from her especially in such a sensitive time. For one, it comes off as tone deaf amid households grappling with higher living

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to hike the Cash Rate by 25 bps and bring it to 3.85% following hot employment and inflation data. In fact, the latest jobs report showed a much bigger than expected gain in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% vs 4.3% prior. That’s when

Fitch sees India budget as growth-neutral as fiscal consolidation slows Bitcoin dip puts Strategy marginally underwater, but balance-sheet risks remain limited China PMI setback underscores fragile domestic demand at start of 2026 – ING Japan govmt walk back Takaichi yen remarks as election nears and intervention risk lingers China private manufacturing PMI rises in January,

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance but the expiries could provide a bit of a floor for price action on any downside extensions later in the day.

Campaign comments on the weak yen have exposed the political and market tightrope Japan is walking ahead of its snap election. Summary: Japan’s prime minister highlighted the benefits of a weak yen during the election campaign, creating tension with official efforts to curb excessive FX moves. Subsequent clarifications sought to neutralise market reaction, stressing neutrality

Prior -0.4% UK house prices inched a little higher to start the year after a bit of a drop at the tail end of 2025. The house price index (seasonally adjusted) moved up in January but the average house price (non-seasonally adjusted) was seen down slightly from £271,068 to £270,873. Again, that is to do

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

BoJ policymakers signalled moderate economic momentum and stickier inflation trends, endorsing careful future rate increases if forecasts unfold as expected. Summary: BOJ policymakers agreed the Japanese economy has recovered moderately but noted uneven momentum in parts of the economy. Inflation is projected to continue rising moderately, underpinned by wage and price interactions and import pass-through.

Data due from Australia, Japan and China today. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is

Summary: Bitcoin’s pullback into the mid-$75,000s has pushed Michael Saylor’s Strategy marginally below its average bitcoin cost base. While the firm is technically “underwater” on paper, analysts see no balance-sheet stress or forced-selling risk. Strategy’s bitcoin holdings are unencumbered, and its debt structure allows significant flexibility. The main impact of lower bitcoin prices is on

Fitch said India’s budget underscores macro stability and fiscal credibility, with growth seen steady. Summary: Fitch Ratings said India’s latest budget reinforces its commitment to macro stability, even as fiscal consolidation slows. The agency views the FY27 deficit target of 4.3% of GDP as modest progress, reflecting the growing difficulty of further consolidation. Fitch described

Summary: Japan’s government is trying to walk back and “de-risk” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s weekend remarks that were widely interpreted as being comfortable with a weak yen. And also insensitive to Japanese people grappling with higher cost of living brought on somewhat by the lower yen driving up the JPY cost of imports. A government

China’s private manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, but rising costs and weak confidence point to a fragile and uneven recovery. Summary: China’s private-sector manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, signalling a second straight month of modest expansion. Output and new orders improved, with overseas demand—particularly from Southeast Asia—providing support. Employment rose slightly and backlogs

Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in January, posting its strongest improvement since 2022 as demand, output and hiring all rebounded. Summary: Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion in January, recording its strongest improvement since August 2022. Output and new orders rose for the first time in well over a year, signalling a broad-based recovery

India’s budget-driven derivatives tax hike is seen as a near-term equity headwind, with investors also disappointed by the lack of immediate measures to stem foreign outflows. Summary: India’s budget proposal to raise taxes on equity derivatives trading is being flagged by analysts and fund managers as a near-term headwind for domestic equities, mainly via higher

Australia’s manufacturing sector started 2026 with stronger growth momentum, supported by rising orders, hiring, and improved confidence. Summary: Australia’s manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in January, marking a third consecutive month above the growth threshold. New orders strengthened sharply, including the first rise in export demand in five months, lifting production momentum. Employment

Australia’s Inflation Gauge cooled on the month but edged higher on the year, keeping inflation worries, and RBA hike risk,front and centre. Summary: The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge rose 0.2% m/m in January, a sharp slowdown from 1.0% in December. The annual pace edged up to 3.6% y/y from 3.5%, keeping the signal consistent

China is doubling down on its long-term push to internationalise the yuan, but structural and policy constraints still limit its reserve-currency appeal. Summary: President Xi Jinping, in an article published on Saturday in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal, has renewed calls for the yuan to evolve into a global reserve currency, underscoring Beijing’s

Oil opens softer as traders fade some geopolitical premium, while OPEC+ keeps March output unchanged and leaves the post-March path deliberately open. Summary: Oil is starting the week on the back foot after a strong run-up, as traders reassess how much geopolitical risk is already priced in. OPEC+ agreed to hold output policy steady for

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Not too much change from late Friday, USD mostly a tiny bit higher: I’ll be back with some weekend news soon …

Mon: US Holiday (MLK Day), Eurogroup Summit; EZ Final HICP (Dec), Canadian CPI (Dec), Chinese GDP (Q4), US Leading index (Oct), Housing Starts/Building Permits (Oct), Philadelphia Fed (Jan), New Home Sales (Nov), Australian Flash PMIs (Jan) Tue: PBoC LPR, EU Economic & Financial Affairs Council, UK Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings (Nov), Swiss Producer Prices

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve Fed’s Musalem: Further interest rate cuts not advisable Eyes on Iran this weekend as Trump talks about ships heading there once again Fed’s Waller: Dissented in favour of rate cut because policy remains too much restrictive Fed’s Bostic: I want clear evidence

The earnings calendar stays busy next week with major implications for the Nasdaq, the consumer outlook, and the AI trade. This week was a major mixed bag with Meta and Microsoft going in opposite directions. The AI narrative faces another major test next week as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) will drive sentiment for the

The Canadian dollar is down against the US dollar but it’s actually outperforming every currency aside from the dollar. That’s a better read on how the loonie has reacted to the latest Trump tariff threats than USD/CAD alone, which is up 105 pips to 1.3594. Even with that pair, if you zoom out over a

Rates are now at neutral rate Economy doesn’t need stimulus Expects economy to continue growing above trend, boosted by fiscal policy Expects inflation to decline to 2% but sees risk it could remain above Further cuts only needed if jobs market were to decay or inflation falls Hawkish stuff from Musalem and the market thinks

Thankfully, there’s no triple-levered silver ETF, or at least one with any trading volume. With silver down 33% today, that would be an extinction-level event. We saw something similar in the VIX ETF implosion a few years ago as it was liquidated. This time, there’s only a twice-levered ETF to worry about. That’s the AGQ

Oil prices are marginally higher today as we watch and wait on Iran. Trump is out once again reminding everyone that an ‘armada’ is heading towards Iran and it’s even bigger than the one that went to Venezuela. That’s obviously a threat and will hang over any negotiation. This is the kind of thing that

Gold experienced sharp intraday fluctuations following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, trimming earlier losses on Thursday after peaking near $5,600. XAUUSD was trading around $5,315, down 1.83%, underscoring just how quickly price action can accelerate and reverse in volatile conditions. In markets like these, the difference between brokers is no longer theoretical. When prices

Prior +0.6% As has been the case for quite some time now, Spain continues to be one of the bright spots in the euro area economy. Quarterly growth outperformed estimates at the end of last year, reaffirming more robust growth overall. As a whole, Spain’s full year 2025 GDP is seen growing by 2.8% based

Headlines: Silver sinks below $100, gold tumbles below $5,000 Precious metals continue to tumble as the heavy selling continues Silver dropped by more than 20% in just two days amid massive profit-taking. What’s next? Have we reached a short-term top in gold after the sharp swing lower? US futures push lower as the risk mood

Sector Overview The U.S. stock market presents a diverse range of performances today, with notable swings across sectors. Technology is painting a mixed picture; software infrastructure like Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.59%, whereas semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) remains almost flat at -0.06%. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) struggles, plunging by 4.84%. Telecommunications emerge as the

Kevin Warsh was a Fed Governor during the financials crisis and thanks to rules that release transcripts six years after the meetings, we can see exactly what he argued for and why. They highlight an overly-hawkish plicymaker that was flat-out wrong about the inflation risks. It’s also in stark contrast to his recent turn towards

These are some breathtaking moves in precious metals today. Gold is now at the session low, down 10.0%, or $837, to $4855. It’s an incredible reversal on the daily chart and a textbook three-candle top. As amazing as that is, silver is something else. It’s down 26%, or $29 to $86.57. Note that less than

Summary: The US Treasury said the Chinese yuan is “substantially undervalued” and called for a timely, orderly appreciation. Treasury again stopped short of naming any country a currency manipulator. China’s large and rising external surpluses were cited as a key concern. Thailand was added to the Treasury’s FX monitoring list. Goldman Sachs and the IMF

Inflation expectations: 1-year ahead 2.8% vs 2.8% prior 3-year ahead 2.6% vs 2.5% prior 5-year ahead 2.4% vs 2.2% prior – the highest since the survey began Full report here “Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we will get lots of tier one data points including GDP for France, Spain, Germany, Eurozone and CPI for Spain and Germany. The most important one will likely be the German inflation data as it’s the most influential for the Eurozone CPI calculation and because inflation is what the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 50 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 37 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 5 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 5 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by

Prior +1.8% HICP +2.1% vs +2.0% y/y expected Prior +2.0% Core CPI Y/Y +xx% vs +2.4% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3% It’s a story of resilience in the euro area and that is reaffirmed by the headline estimate above. The economy has proved the naysayers wrong in 2025, holding firmer as a whole with Germany not succumbing to the manufacturing recession and France able to steer clear of troubled waters from political instability. According

Prior 3k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.0% As a whole, the German economy also posted 0.3% growth in GDP for the year 2025. That as private and government consumption expenditures, in particular, increased. Meanwhile, it was a very turbulent year for foreign trade – not least due to Trump’s tariffs surely. So, that definitely presented a more challenging environment for

More data from Japan (below). I’ll have more to come on this separately. Earlier: Tokyo inflation cools in January, reducing BoJ rate hike urgency. Weight on yen. Japan manufacturers see January output +9.3% m/m (prev forecast: +8.0%) see February output -4.3% m/m This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.3% December preliminary GDP +0.1% StatCan notes that Real GDP was essentially unchanged in November following a 0.3% decline in October, as contractions in goods-producing industries offset expansions in services-producing industries. Goods-producing industries declined 0.3% in November, down for the third time in four months, driven by contractions in the manufacturing and agriculture, forestry,

UBS raised its gold targets and flagged a $7,200 upside case, citing powerful demand tailwinds and elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Summary: UBS lifted its gold price targets sharply, citing heavy investment flows, central bank demand and elevated geopolitical risk. The bank now targets $6,200/oz for March, June and September 2026, up from $5,000 previously.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller maintains his dovish stance, explaining why he dissented in favor of a 25 bps cut at the latest policy meeting. Waller’s stance underscores a growing concern that the central bank’s current restrictive policy is stifling economic activity despite superficially solid growth figures. Waller’s primary concern lies in a unhealty labor

Markets are on edge ahead of Trump’s Fed chair announcement, with Kevin Warsh emerging as the frontrunner and betting odds shifting sharply in his favour. Summary President Donald Trump said he will announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair on the morning of Friday, January 30. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh is increasingly

Economists now expect the RBA to hike rates to 3.85% in February after inflation surprised to the upside, though most see only limited further tightening. Via Reuters polling. Summary: A strong majority of economists now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% on February 3. The shift follows hotter-than-expected Q4

Apple beat Q1 expectations on a big iPhone quarter and a Greater China upside surprise, while services held steady and cash flow stayed strong. Summary: Apple delivered a clear beat on EPS and revenue, led by a standout iPhone quarter (“staggering demand”). iPhone revenue materially outperformed expectations, driving a strong products result overall. Services was

Prior +0.1% The Italian economy continues to hold up modestly and reaffirm more resilience to end the final quarter of last year. Overall, the economy expanded by 0.7% in 2025 and that’s a positive showing in keeping with the tone of more solid growth conditions in the periphery nations. Italian inflation pressures are also kept

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic signaled a firm stance on monetary policy, suggesting the central bank should remain patient and restrictive as the path to 2% inflation remains clouded by potential price shocks. Despite market hopes for a faster easing cycle, Bostic’s recent commentary paints a picture of a cautious central bank

As we get into the session, everyone is keeping a watchful eye on precious metals at the moment. The parabolic surge higher was what captivated markets all through this month. However, is it finally running out of steam now as we are in the final stretch of January trading? It would be quite a timely

The simple theory is that the bigger they are, the harder they fall. And with silver’s parabolic rise being way more outrageous than gold, it stands to reason that any pullback or correction will be just as rough on the former than the latter. That despite the fact that there are some differences to the

Prior was +3.0% PPI M/M +0.5% vs 0.2% expected Prior +0.2% Core PPI Y/Y +3.3% vs +2.9% expected Prior +3.0% (revised to 3.1%) Core PPI M/M +0.7% vs +0.2% expected Prior +0.0% These are much higher than expected figures and we’re seeing a hawkish reaction in the markets with upside in the dollar and Treasury

Gold just ripped to a new all‑time high above 5,500 as volatility went from “interesting” to “historic” in a single session. For traders, this is exactly the kind of market they dream about – and the kind of moment where many brokers quietly move the goalposts. When volatility spikes, the playbook at a lot of

US November trade balance -56.8B vs -40.5B expected US initial jobless claims 209K vs 205K expected Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4.2% vs 5.4% previously Trump says he will work in a bipartisan way to avoid US government shutdown Trump says Fed chair decision coming next week It’s the seventh-worst day in MSFT stock history US November

Morgan Stanley sticks with Nvidia, says underperformance is overblown Trump warns UK over China ties as Starmer hails diplomatic reset USD higher everywhere. Crypto particularly hard hit. BTC/USD lows circa $81K. London Metal Exchange resumed trading at 0200 GMT after a one-hour delay RBA tipped to hike to 3.85% in February after inflation surprise –

What a time to be alive. Precious metals are once again stealing the spotlight today but the past two days have not been about the surging gains and parabolic run higher. Instead, it’s all about the dangers of a quick and sharp correction lower now. With any move that has gone too far, too fast,

UK business confidence dipped in January as global economic worries deepened, even as firms grew more optimistic about their own activity. Summary: UK business confidence eased in January, reflecting a sharp deterioration in views on the global economy. Lloyds’ business barometer slipped to +44%, driven by a one-year low in economic optimism. Firms remained more

Prior +2.9% HICP +2.5% vs +2.4% y/y expected Prior +3.0% Headline annual inflation shows some added volatility, with it reflecting a marked drop in January. That said, core annual inflation is what remains the more important statistic and that is seen steady at 2.6%. As such, this continues the narrative from the end of last

Market players will be watching precious metals closely as we look to wrap up January trading. That will not only have an impact in the commodities space but there will be broader spillovers to the likes of the dollar and risk sentiment as well. As we see the profit-taking and volatility swings accelerate, it could

Trump post on Truth Social: “I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Kevin currently serves as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, and Lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong bullish momentum seems to have waned for precious metals and silver is getting hit the most given its smaller market compared to gold. It’s not clear what caused yesterday’s drop as pretty much all markets went down at the same time. There were only talks of multiple US warships arriving in

WSJ (gated) reported Trump and Senate Democrats struck a shutdown-avoidance deal that funds most agencies long-term while giving DHS a two-week stopgap to extend immigration talks. Summary The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump and Senate Democrats say they’ve reached a deal to avert a partial US government shutdown by splitting off Homeland Security

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong bullish momentum seems to have waned for the time being as we enter a potential pivotal month for gold. It’s not clear what caused yesterday’s drop as pretty much all markets went down at the same time. There were only talks of multiple US warships arriving in the Middle East but

Morgan Stanley says Nvidia’s recent share lag is overdone, backing the stock to outperform as AI demand stays strong and the Vera Rubin platform reinforces its dominance. Summary: Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $250 price target on Nvidia, arguing recent share underperformance is overdone. The bank says market checks across AI infrastructure remain

Prior +0.5% GDP +1.1% vs +1.2% y/y expected Prior +0.9% The headline reading meets estimates as the French economy grew slightly in the final quarter of last year. Overall, French GDP expanded by 0.9% in 2025 and that’s a slight decline from the 1.1% growth seen in 2024. Looking at the breakdown for the year,

Things are certainly heating up as we clock into the final trading day of January. Precious metals were hit by a quick bout of profit-taking in US trading yesterday, which briefly sent gold down to a low of $5,097. Dip buyers didn’t take long to step in but since then, the volatility swings are very

Trump warned Britain against deepening China ties just as Starmer hailed progress from a rare UK prime ministerial visit to Beijing. Summary: President Donald Trump warned Britain against deepening economic ties with China as Prime Minister Keir Starmer pursued a reset in relations during a high-profile visit to Beijing. Starmer held extended talks with Xi

Visa beat Q1 expectations as resilient payment volumes and strong cross-border growth offset a maturing global spending cycle. Summary: Visa beat expectations on earnings and revenue, driven by resilient global payment activity. Cross-border volumes rose strongly, highlighting continued recovery in travel and international spending. Payment volumes and processed transactions broadly met or slightly trailed consensus

What a wild ride this is all becoming. Silver is now down 16% to $97 levels while gold is down some 7% to $4,984 on the day. The $100 mark and the $5,000 mark have both respectfully been breached. Those are some big, big psychological levels to be mindful of. The pullback/correction is in full

One of the hardest decisions a company can make is to wind down its operations. It’s not just emotional and complex but also often misunderstood from the outside. And while closures are hard, they don’t have to be chaotic, unfair or damaging to the people who trusted the brand. FundingTicks is a strong example of

S&P 500 futures are now down 0.9% on the day as losses continue to build to start European morning trade. Tech shares are leading declines once more with Nasdaq futures down 1.1% currently. Meanwhile in Europe, major indices are holding slight gains after the more sluggish showing late yesterday. Germany’s benchmark DAX index is at

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1900 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but are resting just under the 100-hour moving average of 1.1935 currently. The pair is finding a bit of a push and

The other German state releases around the same time as per the following: Hesse CPI +% vs +2.2% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.1% vs +1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +1.9% y/y prior The annual figures here are all higher than seen in December,

Prior +0.5% The year-on-year reading for December was for a decline of 2.3%, marking the sharpest year-on-year drop since March 2024. And overall in 2025, the annual average for German import prices showed a decrease of 0.3% compared to 2024. The breakdown shows the same story that it has been all year, that being the

I have been writing about the case for buying copper for years and it’s borne fruit in the last year in a big way. Physical copper is staring into a yawning supply gap and it will take a decade of higher investment (and higher prices to fix). Those prices are coming quickly with copper rising

The USD rose broadly on this: USD has jumped on rumors Kevin Warsh will be new Fed Chair, announcement due Friday As the hours have passed folks are becoming more confident it Warsh. They say he’s a hawk. I’m skeptical. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The snapshot above is from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. Of most

We’ve been waiting for a decision ‘next week’ for several weeks now but Trump is kicking back the goalposts further: “We’re going to be announcing next week … we’re going to be announcing the head of the Fed, who that will be, and it’ll be a person that will, I think, do a good job.”

The London Metal Exchange resumed trading at 0200 GMT after a one-hour delay caused by technical issues on its LMEselect platform. LME usually operates LMEselect from 1 a.m. to 7 p.m. London time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tokyo area CPI data for January 2026. I’ll have more to come on this separately. For now, though, the dip back in headline and core inflation takes some of the steam out of the Bank of Japan argument to hike rates soon. It doesn’t negate, just dials back a little. This article was written by

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system. Allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” Previous close 6.9506 Injects 477.5bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at 1.40% Earlier: US Treasury says yuan undervalued, urges China to allow appreciation This article was written by Eamonn

Trump said he plans to talk to Iran, pairing diplomatic signals with warnings over US military deploymen Summary: President Donald Trump said he plans to talk to Iran as tensions escalate. Trump referenced US naval deployments toward the region, underscoring the seriousness of the situation. The comments combine a warning with an opening for diplomacy.

Sandisk crushed Q2 expectations and delivered a blockbuster Q3 guide that resets near-term earnings and revenue assumptions. Summary: Sandisk delivered a major beat on both earnings and revenue versus consensus. Guidance for Q3 was the big shock: management sees a step-change higher on both EPS and sales. The outlook implies strong pricing and/or mix, plus

The huge moves today in Meta (+10.3%) and Microsoft (-11.9%) highlight the stakes in earnings season. The calendar hardly slows down today with some other major companies and high flyers reporting. The big one is Apple, which is off to a tough start this year after climbing nicely in the second half of 2025 as

Earlier: US Treasury says yuan undervalued, urges China to allow appreciation — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating

US lawmakers agreed to split DHS funding from other bills and use a two-week stopgap, easing near-term shutdown risks while immigration disputes remain unresolved. Senate GOP and Democrats agreed to separate five bipartisan spending bills from DHS funding, easing immediate shutdown risks. A two-week continuing resolution (CR) will fund the Department of Homeland Security, buying

Softer January Tokyo inflation data eases pressure on the BoJ to hike rates again soon, despite a still-tight labour market. Summary: Tokyo inflation slowed across headline, core and underlying measures in January, undershooting expectations. Core CPI eased back to 2.0%, while the ex-food-and-energy gauge also moderated, signalling softer demand-driven price pressure. The data reduces urgency

NZ consumer confidence hit a four-year high as the key “big ticket purchase” gauge turned positive, but ANZ still sees only “par” growth amid offsetting headwinds and tailwinds. Summary: ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose to 107.2 in January from 101.5, the highest since August 2021. The “good time to buy a major household item” gauge

Trump threatened to decertify Canadian aircraft and impose a 50% tariff, accusing Canada of unfairly blocking certification of Gulfstream business jets. Summary: President Donald Trump accused Canada of unfairly blocking certification of Gulfstream jets. Trump said the US would decertify Canadian-made aircraft, including Bombardier models, in response. He threatened a 50% tariff on all aircraft

Westpac’s dealing desk is pressing three interconnected bets that all point to the same theme: the US dollar’s dominance is cracking, and antipodean currencies are ready to capitalize. This is a theme that I’ve also been writing about. Trade #1: The Aussie Juggernaut The headline trade is a long AUD basket launched at 100.0 on

Sector Overview: Mixed Signals Across Key Sectors The tech sector witnessed significant turbulence today, highlighted by Microsoft (MSFT) dropping sharply by 9.40%. This decline underscores a challenging environment for software infrastructure players. On the flip side, Meta (META) surged by 10.00%, buoying the communication services sector. Semiconductor stocks remained relatively stable with Nvidia (NVDA) inching

ING says persistent services inflation and resilient labour data have put the RBA on track for a cautious February rate hike. Summary: ING says Australia’s stronger-than-expected Q4 CPI has reinforced the case for a 25bp RBA rate hike in February. Trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.4% y/y, above consensus, with housing and services price pressures

Some of the dumbest people in the world have been running around touting the 5.4% forecast from the Atlanta Fed as if it was a real economic number. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to throw cold water on it yesterday, highlighting that Q1 GDP was negative and that the US was on track for

Prior was 200K (revised to 210K) Continuing claims 1827K vs 1860K expected Prior 1849K (revised to 1865K) It’s another great report, especially on the continuing claims side which could point to lower unemployment rate. The US jobless claims have been pointing to a “low hire, low fire” labour market in 2025 as initial claims remained

The prior US government shutdown was a disaster and I’m getting the sense that it didn’t poll great with Republicans either because Trump is now changing up his rhetoric. He says he will work in a bipartisan way to avoid a shutdown. During the last shutdown he wouldn’t even meet with Democrats so this is

You’ll note below that the data agenda is lower-tier only. None of this lot is likely to move around financial markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 continues to print new all-time highs as risk sentiment remains positive amid lower geopolitical tensions, a neutral Fed and improving US growth. These drivers are supportive for the stock market and will likely keep underpinning prices to new record highs unless we get a hawkish repricing in the next couple

Is OpenAI suddenly toxic? The market is sensing that ChatGPT is going to lose the generative AI race because they can’t keep up with the spending of Google and others. Plus they don’t have the data and integration of their megacap competitors. Microsoft posted a 24% rise in y/y earnings today but shares are down

The gold market has never seen anything like this. The moves over the past hour or so are historic as we’ve seen a nearly $500 intraday swing. There is no real catalyst here and that’s what makes the gold market so dangerous right now. Volatility cuts both ways and when you get unprecedented moves to

“I think the market is underpricing the risks here,” I wrote yesterday, regarding oil prices, Iran and the United States. Today, WTI crude oil is up more than 5% to $66.39 as it surges to the highest since August. Yesterday we got a sense of what the US was demanding from Iran and it hardly

Headlines: Dollar recovers some poise on the day, some light profit-taking in precious metals It’s not just Trump’s hawkish rhetoric against Iran pushing up oil prices European stocks rebound but DAX dragged down by SAP, Deutsche Plenty still to come for markets in wrapping up January BOC governor Macklem says there is no easy way

Prior was -29.4B Goods trade vs -56.57B prior The big improvement in October data led to a jump in Q4 GDP forecasts. Separately, the Q3 productivity report was released: Productivity vs 4.9% expected Unit labor costs vs -1.9% expected The US International Trade in Goods and Services report, commonly known as the trade balance report,

Prior was -1.3% Ex transport +0.2% vs -0.2% prior Revisions to November durable goods orders: Durable goods +5.3% vs 5.3% prelim Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.4% vs +0.7% prelim The factory orders report is good news but much of the gain disappears when you strip out transportation, which is volatile. The downgrade to November

European equities had a poor showing yesterday with France’s benchmark CAC 40 index leading the drop. Luxury stocks were the main culprits after LVMH disappointed on earnings with a reported 13.3% drop in profit last year. Things are looking better today with most major indices recovering a chunk of the declines already. The only exception

UBS says further Fed easing, resilient growth and broadening sector support should keep U.S. equities on track for an S&P 500 move to 7,700. Summary: UBS reaffirmed its 7,700 year-end target for the S&P 500, maintaining a constructive outlook for U.S. equities. The bank expects Federal Reserve rate cuts to remain a tailwind, even as

New Zealand trade data December 2025. Just a data post. Not moving NZ markets too much. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reports that Trump and Schumer are approaching a possible deal to avert shut down Xi and Starmer signal thaw as China and UK seek steadier bilateral ties China property shares jump on report of easing “three red lines” rules Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast Reserve Bank of Australia on hold next week Reuters poll:

David Tepper is one of the great hedge fund managers and made a killing last year in China stocks. In November, filings revealed he to a huge stake in appliance-maker Whirlpool Corp, buying a position worth $432 million at a reported price of $76.60. That’s about 10% of the company, which makes brands like Maytag,

China and the UK struck a conciliatory tone in Beijing, hinting at a cautious reset after years of strained ties. Info via Reuters. Summary: China’s President Xi Jinping met UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Beijing, signalling a bid to stabilise bilateral ties. Starmer said the UK wants a “more sophisticated” relationship with China and

Tesla will phase out the Model S and X as it pivots toward robotaxis and humanoid robots, marking a major strategic shift. Summary: Elon Musk said Tesla will phase out Model S and Model X production, ending two of its longest-running vehicle lines. Production is expected to wind down next quarter, with full cessation planned

The full quote from Trump himself: “Jerome “Too Late” Powell again refused to cut interest rates, even though he has absolutely no reason to keep them so high. He is hurting our Country, and its National Security. We should have a substantially lower rate now that even this moron admits inflation is no longer a

There is unusual potential for a new shock, a new disruption due to Trump policies Geopolitical risks are elevated and attacks on the Fed’s independence is another key risk There is no easy way to manage this uncertainty A Fed that is not delivering predictability is not going to be good for anybody Unpredictability of

It was quite a day of events yesterday, not least with the central bank bonanza in having the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy decisions. In any case, both went pretty much straightforward with Fed chair Powell also not really offering much and markets are already looking ready to phase him out it seems.

Reports of easing China’s property leverage rules sparked a sector rally and lifted China-linked risk assets, including the AUD. Summary: Chinese property shares surged after reports that regulators have eased enforcement of the “three red lines” leverage rules. Sunac China led gains, jumping as much as 25% in Hong Kong, lifting broader sector sentiment. Local

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq is approaching new all-time highs as risk sentiment remains positive amid lower geopolitical tensions, a neutral Fed and improving US growth. These drivers are supportive for the stock market and will likely take us to new record highs unless we get a hawkish repricing in the next couple of weeks. In

New York Times (gated): Trump, Schumer move toward possible deal to avert shutdown Trump, Schumer deal sees DHS funding split from package Democrats have objected to funding DHS due to the murders of US citizens by ICE, amongst other crimes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The dollar started the day relatively poorly but is now bouncing back modestly in European morning trade. The greenback has pared declines across the board and is keeping near unchanged levels on the day now. EUR/USD traded to as high as 1.1996 earlier but is now back down to 1.1950 levels while AUD/USD is back

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar remains on the backfoot as the bearish momentum set by the USD/JPY intervention risks kept weighing on the greenback. US Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday said that they are not intervening in dollar-yen now and that gave the dollar a bit of a boost although it didn’t last long. The

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices are now at the highest levels since September 2025 as Trump’s hawkish rhetoric against Iran continues to underpin the market. Yesterday, Trump said on his Truth Social account that time was running out for Iran and that the next attack would be far worse “that last year’s). Trump has been threatening

It’s tough luck for the dollar as it got kicked when it is down, after US president Trump said earlier this week that the currency is “doing great” and that “I don’t think the dollar has declined too much”. That kind of endorsement speaks volumes and it won’t help to turn around the deteriorating sentiment

Tesla beat adjusted EPS and delivered a sizeable gross margin upside in Q4, but a revenue miss and softer free cash flow kept the overall result mixed. Summary: Tesla beat on adjusted EPS and key profitability metrics, but missed revenue and came in light on free cash flow, keeping the quarter “mixed” overall. Adjusted EPS

MAS kept policy unchanged, signalling confidence in resilient growth while keeping a close watch on inflation risks in 2026. Summary: Singapore’s MAS kept monetary policy unchanged, maintaining the prevailing rate of appreciation for the S$NEER policy band, with no change to its width or centre. The decision was widely expected and follows MAS keeping the

As intervention risks continue to stay heightened, there is plenty of uncertainty with regards to the USD/JPY outlook in the short-term. What is the trigger point for the ministry of finance (MOF) to take action? At what levels will they be comfortable with USD/JPY trading in the aftermath? Without any real change to the fundamental

S&P 500 Trader Update. Grinding Higher, But Momentum Is Selective The S&P 500 continues to trade constructively, but recent price action suggests the market is grinding rather than accelerating. Earlier buying pressure has cooled, and order flow now reflects more two-sided trade near recent highs. This is typical behavior when markets approach important reference levels

Economists expect the RBI to stay on hold in February, with policy focus shifting to transmission and currency stability. Summary: A Reuters poll shows the Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25% at its February 4-6 policy meeting. Most economists also see rates staying unchanged through 2026, after cumulative

There are no major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. It’s the same scenario that we’ve been facing for the past few days now. Trading sentiment is going to be all about the other key drivers more so than anything else. That being the prevailing weakness in

Germany’s chancellor warned a weak dollar and strong euro are squeezing exporters, reviving calls to strengthen the euro’s global role via a digital currency. Summary: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the weakening U.S. dollar is becoming a material burden for Germany’s export-driven economy. Merz said the euro’s strength against the dollar is raising costs for

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar remains on the backfoot as the bearish momentum set by the USD/JPY intervention risks kept weighing on the greenback. US Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday said that they are not intervening in dollar-yen now and that gave the dollar a bit of a boost although it didn’t last long. The

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low tier releases that won’t change anything for the ECB or the market. Policymakers are now focused on the euro strength and how that is going to impact inflation going forward. We already had a softer than expected

Microsoft beat Q2 expectations with Intelligent Cloud strength and a $625B commercial backlog, while Azure’s +38% ex-FX growth stayed steady and in line. Summary: Microsoft beat Q2 FY2026 expectations on both adjusted EPS and revenue, signalling resilient demand across its core franchise. Adjusted EPS was $4.14 vs $3.92 expected, while revenue came in at $81.27B

investingLive will take part in iFX EXPO Dubai 2026, where traders will have the opportunity to attend live trading sessions led by Greg Michalowski, our Director of Client Education and Technical Analysis. Taking place from 10–12 February 2026 at the Dubai World Trade Centre, iFX EXPO Dubai will host the Trading Festival, featuring a six-hour

Consumer spending has been resilient Government shutdown effects should be reversed this quarter Activity in housing sector weak A good part of slowing in jobs market represents declining workforce, though hiring demand has clearly slowed as well Inflation has eased significantly but remains somewhat elevated Inflation should trend towards 2% once tariff inflation has passed

Summary: All four major Australian banks now expect a 25bp RBA rate hike next Tuesday, following a stronger-than-expected Q4 inflation outcome. The shift contrasts with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, which continue to call for a hold. The debate centres on whether the 0.9% q/q rise in trimmed mean inflation is sufficient to justify near-term

Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to Fed funds, as expected Powell: The economy is coming into 2026 on a firm footing ECB’s Schnabel says rates expected to remain at current levels for an extended period Bank of Canada rate decision: No change to the overnight rate, as expected BOC’s Macklem: There’s a clear consensus

Business confidence remains exceptionally strong despite a pullback, but rising inflation and wage signals are emerging as a key risk. Summary: New Zealand business confidence eased in January but remains at extremely elevated levels, according to ANZ’s latest survey. Activity indicators point to a solid Q4 GDP outcome, with experienced activity and employment improving across

Australia’s Q4 trade prices point to improving terms of trade, offering modest support for national income and the AUD. Summary: Australian export prices rebounded strongly in Q4, rising 3.2% q/q after a sharp decline in the prior quarter. Import prices rose 0.9% q/q, defying expectations for a decline and marking a clear turnaround from Q3.

Gold rising in leaps and bounds. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Major banks are lifting gold price forecasts, with several now flagging $6,000/oz scenarios for 2026. Deutsche Bank sees persistent investment and central bank demand driving further upside, with an upside scenario near $6,900/oz. Societe Generale also targets $6,000/oz, warning its forecast may prove conservative. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citi all see material upside

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Stronger inflation has locked in February RBA hike expectations, supporting the AUD but leaving risks of further tightening alive. Summary: MUFG and CBA both say persistent inflation and tight labour conditions have strengthened the case for a February RBA rate hike. Australia’s latest CPI showed headline inflation rising to 3.8% y/y, while trimmed mean inflation

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” The rate set under 7 today for the first time since May 2023. Previous close 6.9475. Injects 354bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%:

Summary: Meta beat Q4 expectations on EPS and revenue, driven by strong advertising and Family of Apps performance. Reality Labs losses widened, while Q1 revenue guidance surprised to the upside. A higher 2026 capex outlook flags heavier long-term investment. – Meta delivered a solid set of Q4 2025 earnings, beating expectations across headline earnings, revenue

The FOMC decision is coming up at the top of the hour. Here was what it said in December. Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments.

Vote was 10-2 with Waller and Miran voting for cuts Prior Fed funds target range was 3.50-3.75% Statement saw growth at a ‘solid pace’ vs ‘moderate pace’ previously Statement sees inflation as ‘somewhat elevated’, same as before Says unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization vs ‘edged up’ previously The line about “downside risks

The US has outlined a number of demands to Iran but the NYT reports that there is no indication from Iran that they’re giving into any of them, or even willing to negotiate them. US President ⁠Donald Trump is once again threatening that the United States is ready to launch a military attack against Iran

If an accumulation of evidence or a shock comes, we’re prepared to change our stance if something crystallizes, we will assess Canadian firms’ adjustments to US tariffs will last at least through end-2027 I hope the Fed retains its independence The USD safe haven status has been dented Recent USD weakness is largely driven by

This comment is no surprise to the market, which is pricing in about a 20% chance of a rate cut this year. However I think it’s the first time a top ECB official has said the “extended period” line. Rates are right in the middle of the range of the past decade and that gives

Overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% BOC says The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed vs Oct forecast the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period Prior statement said “current policy rate at about the right level” and the new one says “Governing Council judges

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continued to weaken yesterday as the bearish momentum set by the USD/JPY intervention risk remained intact. Late in the day, we got one final spike lower as Trump kind of endorsed a weak dollar by saying that he wasn’t concerned with the decline at all. The selloff in the

That marks a notable drop from the 6.2 estimate in December last year, with the index returning into negative territory. The current conditions index also fell back from 16.6 to 0.0 on the month, suggesting some headwinds for the economy at present. UBS notes that: “The survey was conducted during the escalation of tensions over

Well this is going to be a boring post given the big news is the President of the United States endorses trashing the US dollar and thereby ramping up inflation and interest rates. Clown show. For the session ahead here in Asia-Pac we’ll have Bank of Japan December meeting minutes. The December BoJ meeting was

The ONS says that it plans to introduce “improved data and methods” for groceries in their consumer price inflation (CPI) statistics. And that this will take effect from February 2026. So, just be wary of that. The impact of the change is minimal but not entirely inconsequential with the UK stats office noting that past

The weakness in crude oil prices over the past year have been a big reason why US inflation has diminished but so far this year it’s been a reversal. Crude has risen from $56 at the turn of the year to $62 on the April contract. It’s up $1.77 today or nearly 3%. It’s testing

Early this morning, ECB’s Kocher said that if the euro were to appreciate further and further, at some stage that might create a certain necessity to react in terms of monetary policy. Not because of the exchange rate itself, but because the exchange rate translates into less inflation, and this becomes a monetary policy issue.

The “AI infrastructure” trade has moved from chips to storage, and the moves are becoming meme-like. We have seen a historic repricing in the memory and storage sector in the past few months. If you thought the semiconductor rally was tired, look at the hardware board today. Money is rotating aggressively into legacy storage names

Sector Overview: Technology and Healthcare in the Spotlight The US stock market today presents a patchwork of mixed performances, with technology and healthcare sectors standing out as the key players. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, showcases impressive gains. Nvidia (NVDA) gains 1.19%, while Broadcom (AVGO) leads the pack with a rise of 1.41%, driven by

Gold is breaking out of the recent range and surging to a fresh high at $5122. It’s a fresh all-time high that’s come even with silver consolidating after blasting above $100 on Friday. The strong late buying is a good sign that the bulls aren’t yet exhausted, or at least that they’re rotating into more

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold broke through a key technical level yesterday and extended the gains into new record highs. We had a weak US Consumer Confidence report that provided support to the market, but the momentum increased when talking to the press Trump suggested that he wasn’t concerned with the decline in the dollar at all.

Prior was +3602K Gasoline +223K vs 1009K exp Distillates +329K vs -583K exp Refinery utilization -2.4% vs -2.0% prior The private data from late yesterday showed: Crude -247K Gasoline -415K Distillates +2000K As of late January 2026, the market has focused heavily on a series of significant gasoline supply builds. Recent data shows: Inventory Surges:

US January consumer confidence plunges to the lowest since 2014 US home price data from CaseShiller shows a 1.4% yearly gain in November vs 1.2% expected US sells 5-year notes 3.823% vs 3.820% WI RBC: Gold rally has ‘room to run’; sees potential for $7,100 Richmond Fed composite index -6 vs -7 prior ADP weekly

Strap in for a big day in financial markets as we get two central bank decisions and a trio of major earnings reports. The day kicked off with big bids in gold that saw a rally as high as $5311. It’s currently pared back to $5275 but is still up $86 on the day, or

S&P 500 Technical Analysis Today Order Flow Highlights the Key Levels Buyers and Sellers Are Watching Date: January 28, 2026 Market focus: S&P 500 futures (ES) Framework: orderFlow Intel by investingLive.com Key takeaways for traders and investors The S&P 500 remains structurally supported, but upside momentum has slowed. VWAP and POC clustering near 5,229 to

Prior -26.9 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The US dollar jumped, particularly against the yen after comments from the Treasury Secretary: We have a strong dollar policy US not intervening in the currency market to support the Japanese yen On the Fed, hope they have an open mind Miron’s term could continue Have not narrowed or expanded list of 4 Fed candidates

Tether has emerged as one of the world’s largest private gold holders with approximately 140 tons of physical bullion worth around $24 billion, according to new reports. The stablecoin issuer has been quietly accumulating 1-2 tons per week and storing the metal in a former Swiss nuclear fallout bunker. To put that in perspective: 140

Every major institution in Canada is expecting the BOC to be on hold today and that is no surprise. Market pricing is for the central bank to stay on hold with a ~92% probability and pretty much no clear cut rate moves whatsoever all through this year. Most analysts are sharing that view but how

From the man himself: “A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed

Former European Commission President José Manuel Barroso recently claimed that relations between Europe and the United States are at their lowest point since NATO’s founding. It’s hard to disagree, especially in light of former President Donald Trump’s recent remarks, such as that “Europe was created to harm the United States” and that the U.S. has

Summary: Members saw wage gains and pass-through supporting a durable wage–price cycle Real rates still negative; credit growth and easy conditions viewed as increasingly stimulative Neutral rate highly uncertain; preference for flexible, meeting-by-meeting adjustments Yen weakness and long-end moves discussed via inflation channel, not as a policy target The Bank of Japan’s December meeting minutes

Trump may move early on naming the next Fed chair, potentially aligning the announcement with this week’s policy decision. Summary: Trump may announce Fed chair nominee as soon as this week Timing could coincide with the January FOMC decision Powell’s term runs until May, but Trump appears keen to move early Analysts see political incentive

Once again, there aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day with the full list seen below. There are some large ones for EUR/USD but they are too far away to be of any impact. The central bank bonanza is back in town with the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decisions

This is just a quick update, I’ll be back with more to come on this separately. Data here: Australian Trimmed Mean CPI quarterly 3.8% y/y (expected 3.6) The other readings mainly also stronger than expected. Reserve Bank of Australia meet February 2 and 3. A 25bp rate hike now the baseline expected. This article was

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Central banks: Fed preview: forget about the decision, focus on Powell No Fed rate cut expected today but what about in the months ahead? BoC preview: An uneventful decision with focus on the new projections No surprises expected from the BOC today but what are analysts saying about the next move? Headlines: Gold surges into

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and maintain the neutral stance. There should be limited changes to the statement as the central bank awaits more data before considering further rate adjustments. Note, that we won’t get the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) at this meeting, so the focus will be

The S&P 500 posted a record high close yesterday and is looking to build on that in the day ahead. Tech shares are the ones leading the charge, helping to keep sentiment buoyed. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% with Nasdaq futures up 1.0% on the day currently. Dow futures are only seen up 0.1%

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The interest rate decision today will be a straightforward one, with the Fed set to leave policy unchanged. There might be slight tweaks to the statement, with focus on the risks to the economy especially the labour market. As for forward guidance, that is likely to be maintained as per December. That leaves us with

China approves first imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips Goldman Sachs: investor risk appetite remains elevated despite geopolitical risks BoJ minutes recap: weak yen and labour crunch shape rate hike debate Trump may time Fed chair pick with ‘on hold’ January FOMC policy meeting Westpac: inflation delivers casting vote for February RBA hike ECB’s Cipollone

The IMF says it is stress-testing scenarios that include a run on dollar assets as investor unease over US policy deepens, even as it acknowledges the greenback’s dominance is unlikely to vanish suddenly. Summary: IMF is modelling scenarios including a rapid sell-off of US dollar assets Comments reflect rising unease over tariffs, Fed independence, and

The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the policy rate steady at 2.25% while maintaining the neutral stance amid trade uncertainty and risks to the economic outlook. Since the last meeting in December, Canada’s economic data has softened a bit. The December Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y eased to 2.7% from 2.9% in November, and the

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EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Swiss ZEW and the Italian Consumer Confidence. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted. The price action throughout

China’s approval of Nvidia’s H200 AI chip imports signals a pragmatic shift as Beijing prioritises domestic AI development. Summary: China approved first imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips Initial allocation covers several hundred thousand units Chips reportedly earmarked for three major tech firms Move aligns with China’s push to accelerate AI development Approval seen as

Trump’s promise to quickly sign a year-round E15 bill puts biofuels back in focus as Congress struggles to deliver a permanent fix. Summary: Trump signals fast sign-off for year-round E15 gasoline legislation E15 (15% ethanol) faces summer sales limits under fuel-volatility rules Funding-bill effort failed; lawmakers pivoted to a task force plan Farm and ethanol

ECB’s Cipollone says Europe’s economic resilience is holding, but geopolitical risks threaten growth and strengthen the case for financial autonomy. Summary: ECB sees geopolitical risks reinforcing case for European payments autonomy Euro-area economy remains resilient, with data potentially beating forecasts Investment strength supports growth without undermining price stability Persistent geopolitical uncertainty risks weighing on investment

This is just a data post, I’ll be back with detail and analysis separately. In brief, nearly all the readings are higher than expected. Its increasingly looking like a February 3rd rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD/USD jumped to its highest since February 2023 above 0.7022. This article was written by Eamonn

Goldman says investors remain firmly risk-on, brushing aside rising geopolitical uncertainty. Summary: Goldman says investor risk appetite remains elevated Sentiment sits around the 67th percentile Risk appetite index at highest level since April 2021 Equity positioning remains broadly bullish Flows expanding into Europe, Japan and EM Goldman Sachs says investor risk appetite remains elevated despite

Late in the day we’re getting a headline from Trump who says “the dollar is doing great”. He went on to say “I don’t think the dollar has declined too much” and that he’s not concerned about the decline and that it’s finding a fair level. The market is taking that all as an endorsement

Westpac says persistent core inflation leaves the RBA little choice but to hike in February, while favouring a cautious wait-and-see stance thereafter. Summary: Westpac now expects a 25bp RBA hike in February Trimmed mean inflation seen as delivering the “casting vote” Underlying inflation momentum still uncomfortably high February move framed as likely one-off, not a

Prior to the hot Australian CPI data earlier here, the odds of a 25 bps rate hike next week were ~61%. And now after the dust has settled, they have increased to a ~72% probability. It’s not a slam dunk as market players are still reserving some caution just in case the RBA continues to

With all else that is happening in the major currencies space with regards to the US dollar and Japanese yen, the Swiss franc is quietly making waves since the start of the year. As the safe haven status of the dollar and yen both crumble, traders are finding safety and comfort in the franc amid

Kocher is arguing his standpoint based on the impact of a stronger euro on inflation pressures. He says that: “If the euro appreciates further and further, at some stage this might create of course a certain necessity to react in terms of monetary policy. But not because of the exchange rate itself, but because the

Wednesday is the Federal Reserve decision and the US dollar is quickly becoming a topic of conversation. The FOMC is highly unlikely to cut rates or signal another imminent move but even the hint of a dovish inflation forecast is likely to weigh on the US dollar. That will be enough to push the euro

BoJ minutes show yen weakness and labour tightness are key inputs into the timing of further rate hikes. Summary: BoJ debated yen weakness and labour shortages as inflation drivers December rate hike lifted policy rate to 0.75% Some members see inflation becoming more entrenched Weak yen viewed as feeding underlying inflation pressures No preset hiking

The Bank of England Governor Bailey writes that stronger banks are only part of the stability story as risks increasingly migrate beyond the traditional financial system. Summary: Bailey links past crises to today’s need for vigilance and resilience Post-GFC reforms have materially strengthened bank stability UK regulatory tweaks aim to support growth without weakening safeguards

Australia’s December CPI reinforces the case for an RBA rate hike as underlying inflation re-accelerates and services pressures intensify. Summary: Australian CPI surprised higher across headline and core measures Trimmed mean inflation rose to 0.9% q/q and 3.4% y/y Six-month annualised core inflation sits near 3.9% Services inflation accelerated sharply, led by travel and rents

The dollar slid to multi-year lows as political uncertainty, tariff threats and concerns over Fed independence deepened the market’s “sell America” trade. Summary: U.S. dollar hits four-year low as losses extend for fourth session Trump comments reinforce perception Washington tolerates weaker dollar Trade threats and shutdown risks add to U.S. policy uncertainty USD/JPY slips below

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.8 mn barrels Distillates -0.6 mn bbls Gasoline +1.0 mn — The inventory data referenced here comes from a privately conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which polls oil storage facilities, refiners, and other industry participants on a voluntary basis. The API report

Silver is up 2% today to $106.37 but it’s down intraday from a high of $113 and hasn’t challenged yesterday’s high near $118. It’s been a magical run for silver but there are red flags and signs of exhaustion emerging. For one, it looks like retail traders piled in. That’s usually a sign of a

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3.747% prior Bid to cover vs 2.35 prior Here was a preview from BMO: Today’s $70 bn 5-year auction comes after the strong reception to yesterday’s 2-year offering, which stopped-through by 1.5 bp with aggressive end-user bidding. With every nominal coupon auction stopping through so far in 2026, it’s become increasingly difficult to imagine that

CaseShiller data for the 20-largest metropolitan areas: Prior annual price rise 1.3% Monthly November price +0.5% vs +0.3% prior Non-seasonally adjusted 0.0% vs -0.3% November national numbers Annually 1.9% vs +1.7% prior (revised to +1.8%) Monthly +0.6% vs +0.4% prior Index 439.3 vs 436.7 prior Is the US housing market coming to life? It’s take

UK shop price inflation surged in January, driven by food and cost pressures, complicating the outlook for a smooth fall in headline inflation. Summary: UK shop price inflation jumped to 1.5% y/y in January Fastest pace since February 2024, BRC data shows Food inflation accelerated to 3.9%, led by meat and produce Higher energy costs

Prior was 89.1 Details: Present situation 113.7 vs 116.8 prior Expectations vs 70.7 prior Jobs plentiful vs 26.7% prior Jobs hard to get vs 20.8% prior Separately, the Richmond Fed manufacturing and services numbers were released at the same time. Manufacturing shipments vs -11 prior Services index vs -6 prior Composite index vs -7 prior

Metal are melting up at a breathtaking pace, but the miners haven’t priced it in yet. Gold just printed $5,075 and Silver is tearing the roof off at $112. We are in uncharted territory for the metals, but if you look at the equity side, the miners are still trading like gold is stuck back

Gold prices have shattered the $5,000/oz barrier, and according to the latest analysis from RBC Capital Markets, the momentum behind the precious metal shows no signs of exhaustion. Gold is up $66 today to $5080 as it consolidates above the big figure. While the bank’s high-scenario forecast had anticipated gold reaching the $5,200 region later

I’ve been thinking about this Pan Am advertisement from 1963, and it strikes me that we don’t talk enough about what an absolute miracle modern aviation represents. Not just as a technological achievement, but as perhaps the single greatest example of what happens when you get the regulatory framework right and let competitive capitalism do

Medicare spending is skyrocketing, but the government just decided that insurers aren’t getting a cut of it. Today was a rude awakening for US healthcare providers. The chart above shows the “inevitable” doubling of Medicare spending from 2023 to $1.9 trillion, which is the entire bull thesis for the sector. The Trump administration just flipped

Important for the ECB to have full optionality ECB must be able to act quickly and decisively ECB wants optionality in any direction Sentiment indicators suggest slightly upward bias Downside risks are quite substantial ECB is fine as long as deviations from 2% target are modest German stimulus and savings rate support growth forecast Right

Introduction: What Is ECN Trading? ECN trading refers to trading through an Electronic Communication Network. It is a system that connects traders directly to liquidity providers, which typically consist of banks, hedge funds, and large financial institutions. Unlike traditional brokers that act as middlemen, ECN trading allows your buy or sell orders to be matched

Australian markets reopened today after a long weekend with the ASX 200 up 0.9%. Naturally the gains were led by by miners, including Capstone Copper, which was up 7.7%. BNP also jumped 3.1% to pass Commonwealth Bank and become the country’s largest company for the first time since October 2024. I made the case for

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer heads to China to mend ties and diversify Britain’s economic partnerships as relations with the U.S. grow more uncertain. Summary: Starmer makes first UK PM visit to China since 2018 Trip aims to reset ties and boost trade and investment Visit comes amid strains with the U.S. under Trump UK–China

US health insurers fell after hours after the Trump administration proposed a near-flat 2027 Medicare Advantage rate increase, far below expectations and coupled with tighter billing rules. Summary: US health-insurer stocks fell sharply after hours on news of weaker-than-expected Medicare Advantage rates. The Trump administration proposed just a 0.09% average increase for 2027, far below

ECB’s Kocher sees inflation risks in both directions, stresses full optionality Gold analysis for today show profit takers coming at gold futures price $5094 The S&P 500 remains on track to reach new record highs amid positive risk sentiment The Indian Rupee stalls around record lows as the EU and India sign a historic trade

In today’s trading landscape, tech giants like Microsoft and Apple rallied strongly, while the healthcare sector faced significant declines, reflecting a diverse market performance. 📈 Tech Sector Strengthens: A Glance at Today’s Movers Microsoft (MSFT): Exhibiting a solid gain of 1.24%, as investor confidence bolsters tech’s backbone. Apple (AAPL): Leading the consumer electronics space with

For the full year 2025 +0.6% y/y (prior +0.1%). I’ll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Micron is poised to expand memory chip production in Singapore as global shortages intensify amid surging AI-driven demand. Summary: Micron plans new memory chip investment in Singapore Expansion driven by global memory shortage and AI demand Singapore already produces most of Micron’s flash memory Rivals Samsung and SK Hynix also accelerating capacity Supply shortfall may

BoA highlights that US tax payers are set for big refunds this year in light of the latest tax cuts. It’s an 18% increase from the prior three years it will almost all come from Feb-April. Consumers should get about $65bn in the form of larger-than-usual tax refunds due to favorable treatment of tips and

Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI), AKA services producer price index, captures service-sector price pressures that can be a leading signal for consumer inflation and broader cost dynamics in a service-driven economy. not likely to move yen too much upon release. Similarly, Australian business confidence/conditions not likely to impact AUD too much upon release either.

Stock Market Premarket Insights and Sector Rotation Deep Dive January 27 Market Open Prep for Investors and Traders The U.S. equity market is sending a very clear message heading into today’s session. This is not a random stock picking environment. This is a capital rotation market. When investors look at premarket trading volume, relative strength,

Australian business conditions improved in December as sales and profits strengthened, while elevated capacity utilisation suggests limited spare capacity. Summary: NAB business conditions rose to +9 in December Business confidence edged higher to +3 Sales and profits strengthened, employment steady Capacity utilisation remains elevated at 83.2% Data point to improved Q4 economic momentum Australian business

Earlier: Japan December 2025 PPI +2.4% y/y (expected +2.4%, prior +2.7% Nothing in these data to contradict the BOJ rate hike path. Data post only, more detail to follow separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 opened lower yesterday but eventually erased all the losses and reached new weekly highs. The sentiment changed last Wednesday when Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. That was the TACO trade that everyone was waiting for.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The day itself doesn’t contain any large expiries whatsoever, so that is quite straightforward. But in any case, there are bigger drivers of trading sentiment at play at the moment. So even if there are any large

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The January FOMC meeting is expected to pass quietly, with rates on hold and markets focused on Powell’s tone rather than policy action. January FOMC meeting, Fed widely seen holding rates unchanged Powell comments on labour market and neutral rate in focus Political context may overshadow policy guidance Goldman sees two Fed cuts in 2026,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

China is preparing targeted policies to manage AI-driven labour disruption while promoting job creation and employment stability. Chinese state media, Xinhua, with the info. Summary: China to issue policy on AI’s impact on employment Focus on job creation and managing labour disruption Graduate and youth employment prioritised Urban–rural employment systems to be unified Long-term safeguards

This February, something new is coming to Dubai. The Trading Festival, an event powered by iFX EXPO, will make its debut in the heart of the burgeoning emirate and key fintech hub. Running alongside and under the same roof with iFX EXPO Dubai 2026 at the Dubai World Trade Centre (Za’abeel, Halls 5 & 6),

Morgan Stanley doesn’t expect the Fed to pull off any surprises this week, keeping monetary policy unchanged. However, there could be some light changes to the statement but overall the firm expects the central bank to reaffirm a more easing bias. For some context, their call fits very well with market expectations as Fed funds

Many traders and investors are looking at Gold and Silver Prices Today The precious metals market has entered a period of historic volatility and “hysteria,” with silver leading a parabolic charge that has seen prices double in just over a month. According to Adam Button, silver’s recent surge to a fresh all-time high of $112

Given the prevailing fundamental backdrop, there’s never going to be a perfect time for Tokyo officials to intervene in the currency market. So if they want to send a message to markets that it isn’t going to be a free ride in driving up USD/JPY, they might think now’s a good time as any to

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” The rate set under 7 today for the first time since May 2023. Previous close 6.9540 PBoC injects 402bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at

It’s crazy to think that at this time last year, silver was trading at $30. And here we are today talking about near $10 price swings in just one day. These are nearly once-in-a-lifetime moves we’re seeing in the commodities space and it’s absolutely wild. Since the start of the year, the run up in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

Brazil’s price advantage and record harvest position it to deepen its dominance of China’s soybean imports in early 2026, despite renewed U.S. supply. Summary: China set to lift Brazilian soybean imports in early 2026 Record South American output keeps Brazilian prices dominant U.S. purchases concentrated among state-owned buyers only Tariffs and pricing sideline private Chinese

US November durable goods orders 5.3% vs 3.2% expected Dallas Fed January manufacturing index improves to -1.2 from -11.3 Trump sends armada to Iran region, says the situation is “in flux” What are the betting odds for various Federal Reserve chairman candidates Why there is upside to US consumer spending in early 2026 Atlanta Fed

China’s industrial profits rebounded sharply in December, beating expectations and offering early signs of easing deflationary pressure. Summary: China industrial profits rose 5.3% y/y in December Growth beat expectations for a sharp decline Producer price deflation eased to a one-year low December rebound snapped a two-month contraction Full-year profits rose for first time since 2021

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. None of the data will change anything for the markets or the ECB, so the reaction will be muted. Traders are now just waiting

Goldman Sachs says that this week’s FOMC meeting is likely to be a boring affair, with the Fed not going to offer any policy changes and only some minor tweaks to their statement language. Overall, that won’t give markets too much to work with about what will come next and Fed chair Powell will also

Japan’s service inflation signal stayed firm in December, underscoring wage-driven price pressure and keeping the BoJ alert to further tightening. Summary: Japan service price indicator rose 2.6% y/y in December Labour-intensive sectors saw the strongest gains Tight job market continues to lift service inflation BoJ sees scope for further rate hikes if trends persist Yen

Major banks see gold pushing toward new highs as central-bank demand, geopolitics and prospective Fed easing reinforce bullion’s appeal. Summary: Morgan Stanley sees gold reaching $5,700/oz in H2 Geopolitical risk and central-bank buying drive demand ETF inflows expected to strengthen as rates ease Fed rate cuts in 2026 seen as supportive tailwind Société Générale forecasts

This via the Financial Times (gated): I’ll post more separately as it becomes available. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Japanese yen remains a key focus in markets this week after having seen Tokyo officials more than likely performed a ‘rate check’ on Friday last week. That was enough to alleviate the pressure on the currency with USD/JPY stumbling down from 159.00 to hit a low of 153.30 yesterday. However, the drop yesterday was

TD Securities says the dollar’s 2025 slide reflects a correction from strength, not a rush to exit, with only modest downside expected in 2026. Summary: Dollar fell 8% trade-weighted in 2025, ~10% versus majors Pullback reverses gains since late 2023 USD remains near long-term averages and multi-decade highs No sign of accelerated flight from dollar

Trump raises South Korea tariffs after accusing Seoul of breaking trade deal Summary: Trump announced a tariff hike on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%. The move targets autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and all reciprocal tariffs. Trump blamed South Korea’s legislature for failing to approve a 2025 trade deal. The agreement was reached with President

January FOMC preview: Fed seen on hold with little new guidance Morgan Stanley sees gold at $5,700 as banks turn even more bullish Japan service inflation holds near highs as wage pressures persist China industrial profits rebound in December as price pressures ease China to roll out policy to manage AI job impact and boost

Axios is out with an interview with Trump and it’s starting to sound like an attack on Iran is getting more likely. Trump came close to ordering a strike on regime targets in Iran earlier this month over the killing of thousands of protesters. Instead he delayed the decision while also moving military assets to

As the January 28 FOMC meeting looms, the race to replace Jerome Powell is nearly done, as Trump promised an announcement this month. We’ve seen a massive shift in the leaderboard over at Kalsh as the media hypes up Rick Rieder’s chances. I think this is overdone but BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed

A weakening dollar creates an opening for the RMB, but Miao Yanliang argues China’s reforms, not US decline, will determine whether the renminbi secures a durable global role. Source here. Summary: Dollar primacy is fraying, loosening barriers in the international monetary system History shows currency transitions require timing and institutional reform Economic scale alone cannot

Silver has further extended gains, hitting $116/oz and up more than $13/oz on the day. To offer a sense of how big a move that is, as recently as 2020, the total price of silver was just $11/oz. This is an unheared of move in terms of magnitude in silver market. It’s reminiscent of the

Tech stocks mixed: Communication services buoy market amid semiconductor struggles The US stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable divergences across sectors. While technology stocks showed varying performance, the communication services sector provided a buoyant force, counterbalancing struggles within semiconductors. 🔍 Sector Overview Technology and Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector faced a challenging day,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

Silver is up 9% or $9.20 to $112, which is a fresh all-time high. Note that it just broke $100 for the first time on Friday and it’s gone straight through the big figure in an incredible parabolic move. This is one for the history books as silver has now doubled since December 15. What

LUGANO, SWITZERLAND – January 26, 2026– Telcoin Association announced today that its TEL token is now listed on Kraken, one of the world’s largest and most established cryptocurrency exchanges. With over 13 million registered users across 190+ countries, Kraken provides TEL with immediate access to a global trading community on regulated infrastructure spanning the United

Prior was -10.9 Production +11.2 vs -3.0 prior New orders +11.8 vs -6.6 prior Capex +7.1 vs -4.6 prior Employment +8.2 vs -1.4 prior Outlook +2.9 vs -12.3 prior This is a nice improvement with rebounds across the main metrics. New orders, in particular, look strong. Comments in the report. I find the one about

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

Headlines: Japanese yen pushes higher as intervention risks mount It’s hysteria in the gold market as prices hit another record high: Is this justified? US futures see nervous start to the week, big tech earnings in focus Oil prices rebound as Trump mentions “massive armada” heading to Iran Another shutdown looms large after Democrats pull

The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking estimate is out for the fourth quarter and the reading was left unchanged after durable goods orders: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 26, unchanged from January 22 after rounding. After this

USD/JPY falls to a fresh low as official sees a “high sense of urgency” Australia is closed today for Australia Day but AUD hits the highest in 15 months Gold blasts through $5000 to all time high. What to look for next Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the largest military purge in years Japan PM

Since the more hawkish than expected October’s FOMC decision, the market got a bit less certain on multiple Fed rate cuts as the division among members became clearer. The Fed eventually delivered one last cut in December but signalled that additional adjustments will be data-dependent. In January, we started to get better and better US

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Today – orderFlow Intel Signals a Late-Stage Intraday Shift Bitcoin futures are trading in a late bullish intraday phase, where price is still supported structurally, but momentum and efficiency are fading. This does not yet qualify as a bearish reversal, but it does mark an important transition zone where traders need to

Just last week, betting odds have a US government shutdown at around 10% only. But after the shooting death of civilian Alex Pretti by federal agents, it has changed things completely. Just days ago, a full-year funding deal seemed within reach. Now, Democrats are vowing to oppose the funding bill for the Department of Homeland

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended the gains into new record highs today following a strong selloff in the US Dollar on yen intervention risks. The narratives underpinning gold continue to be de-dollarisation, geopolitical tensions, and so on. Nothing new really. I would say that this is now more about FOMO rather than something fundamental. I’m not

With all else that is going on in the world, it’s easy to forget that China and Japan are still in the midst of a political spat since the latter stages of last year. As a reminder, all of this came about after Japan prime minister Takaichi took office. And she was quoted in saying

Introduction: What Is a Spread in Trading? In trading, a “spread” is the difference between two prices: the bid price and the ask price. The bid price is the highest amount a buyer is willing to pay for an asset, while the ask price is the lowest amount a seller is willing to accept. This

Prior was -2.2% (revised to -2.1%) Durable goods orders ex-transport 0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior 0.1% Durable goods ex-defense 6.6% vs -1.5% prior (revised to -1.3%) Non-defense capital goods ex-air 0.7% vs 0.3% expected Prior 0.5% (revised to 0.3%) These are very good numbers but the market reaction in the FX market was muted, although

S&P 500 Technical Analysis After the Gap Down at This Week’s Open – Why Traders Needed Patience Near Friday’s Close The S&P 500 opened the new trading week on Monday, January 26, 2026, with what looked like a scary gap down. From Friday’s close near 6,933.75, futures briefly dropped to around 6,879, a move of

The S&P 500 is off to a flyer this year, but beneath the surface of the headline index, a handful of names are absolutely ripping. While the broader market debates the “soft landing” versus “no landing” scenarios, these 25 stocks have already cleared the +20% hurdle less than a month into the year. The clear

Prior 87.6 Current conditions 85.7 vs 86.0 expected Prior 85.6 Expectations 89.5 vs 90.3 expected Prior 89.7 German business sentiment stagnates to start the year with the expectations/outlook index dropping a little. The current conditions shows a marginal improvement but it’s nothing optimistic and doesn’t really suggest a material betterment in business activity. As price

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Last Thursday, Trump spoke to the press about different topics following the meetings in Davos at the World Economic Forum. The comment that caught oil traders’ attention was him saying that a “massive armada” was heading in the direction of Iran. Oil prices started to rise on potential hedges into the weekend risk.

It’s a nervous start to the week in the equities space as risk trades are reserving some caution amid the madness elsewhere. The Japanese yen is a key focus point with intervention risks on the extreme while precious metals continue to fly as the parabolic move continues. All of this with the dollar continuing to

The first supposed ‘rate check’ took place in European trading on Friday and then there was another late on in US trading. Although on the latter, the dollar was already crumbling across the board so USD/JPY traders also took that as a sign to abandon long positions. The nerves are continuing to Asia trading today

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight will be the German IFO index. It’s expected to tick higher to 88.2 vs 87.6 prior, which would mirror the improvements seen with the German ZEW index and the German PMIs. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB though, so the market

USD/JPY is down 167 pips to the lows of the day. It’s been volatile trading so far today as the pair initially traded near these levels befoer bouncing by more than 100 pips. In the past two hours though, it began trending lower and has now taken out the lows. The drop today takes the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

The market is warming up for the week and we already have some big moves indicated. Australia is on holiday today but the big notable change is that USD/JPY contionues to sink. The pair rose as high as 159.23 on Friday in the aftermath of the BOJ but it’s now down nearly 500 pips from

Late last year, long-time tech investor and analyst Dan Niles said his best idea for 2026 was cash. So far, that’s proven to be mostly correct as the Mag7 names have been struggling or uneven. On Friday, they got a lift but only Meta (+1.7%) and Alphabet (+7.1%) are higher on the year so far.

Last week’s move in long-dated Japanese bonds was a scary one. 30-year yields jumped more than 25 basis points in a day, a range that was one the hallmark of an entire year in Japanese bond markets. The move came after PM Takaichi called an election and immediately began talking about higher spending. It’s a

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. Trading sentiment continues to revolve around the same factors from Friday last week. The Japanese yen is in its own world, with traders needing to deal with intervention risks bordering on the extreme now. That especially after

The Canadian dollar is flat in early trading but slightly undeperforming in a broad US dollar selloff. The reason is that Trump on the weekend threatened 100% tariffs against Canada. Trump said the tariffs will come if Canada “makes a deal with China.” “China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of

The Australian dollar is up 21 pips to 0.6913 today, which is the highest since October 2024. The Aussie benefited from a strong jobs report on Friday and the market is beginning to sniff out rate hikes. The cash rate right now is 3.60% but the OIS curve prices that at around 4.30% by the

It’s a banner moment for the gold bugs as it hits $5000 per ounce for the first time. It’s a monster rally since August and includes a 17% rally so far this year. Despite how impressive that is, it pales in comparison to silver, which is up 48% year-to-date. It’s all great news if you’re

With all the drama in the United States and Japan at the moment, some massive moves in China are flying under the radar. President Xi Jinping undertook a massive purge of the military. Gen. Zhang Youxia was accused of leaking nuclear-weapons data to the US and accepting bribes for promotions, including of a defense minister,

Mon: Australian Holiday (Australia Day), German Ifo (Jan). Tue: Chinese Industrial Profits (Dec), US Richmond Fed (Jan), US Consumer Confidence (Jan). Wed: Fed Policy Announcement, BoC Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, Australia CPI (Q4), German GfK (Feb), NZ Trade (Dec). Thu: Riksbank Policy Announcement, CBRT Minutes, EZ Money Supply (Dec). Fri: German Import Prices (Dec),

Japan’s intervention risk is back in sharp focus after PM Takaichi warned on Sunday against speculative moves, following a violent yen reversal and rate-check chatter late Friday. Summary: Japan PM Sanae Takaichi warned officials stand ready to act against “speculative and highly abnormal” market moves as the yen weakens and bond yields rise. The remarks

US January S&P Global flash services PMI 52.5 vs 52.8 expected Trump administration weights total blockade of Cuba – report Yen intervention talk sends USD/JPY sharply lower Canada November retail sales +1.3% vs +1.2% expected Markets: WTI crude oil up $1.77 to $61.13 US 10-year yields down 1.6 bps to 4.235% Bitcoin flat at $89K

Politico reports: The Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country, three people familiar with the plan said Thursday. American built up a lot of force in the Caribbean for Venezuela, maybe they redirect it to Cuba, or maybe

We have a massive slate of mega-cap tech, critical industrial bellwethers, and the titans of energy all reporting next week. The key theme will be justification. Valuations are stretched in the tech sector, and the market needs to see not just beat-and-raise quarters, but clear evidence that AI capex is going to translate into revenue.

Eyes are on the yen on a big move lower in USD/JPY ahead of the weekend. The pair is down 202 pips on the day now to 156.40, which is a sharp reversal after rising to 159.22 when the Bank of Japan left rates on hold. There is some chatter that’s unconfirmed that Japan’s Ministry

The US dollar is coming under some broad pressure ahead of the weekend, particularly in USD/JPY. There could be fears of intervention in the thin liquidity at the open on Sunday or it could reflect the record highs in precious metals and increasing talk of de-dollarization. Another curious move today is the rally in oil

The latest reports we got on the Federal Reserve Chairman decision were last week and suggested that Trump would make a decision either just before or just after going to Davos. He left Davos yesterday and is now back in Washington so it could be on the agenda for today or this weekend. It seems

Japan’s flash PMI data point to a strong start to 2026, with growth broadening beyond services into manufacturing. Summary: Composite PMI hit a 17-month high in January Services activity led gains, manufacturing returned to growth Export orders rose for first time in years Backlogs surged, lifting hiring to a multi-year high Cost pressures and price

Declines to respond when asked about talk of ‘rate checks’ Says watching forex moves with a sense of urgency The silence and lack of follow through remarks says a lot considering how she would normally like to interject and try and jawbone the USD/JPY currency pair lower. It leans towards the tone of action speaks

US railway CSX isn’t seeing a macro rescue in 2026. Management is planning for flat industrial production, modest GDP growth and sticky inflation within the firm above 3%, with customers cautious under tariff pressure. Housing and autos remain headwinds, trucking is soft, and there’s no near-term catalyst—leaving infrastructure spending and power demand as the lone

Oil Technical Analysis Today: Crude Oil Bears Stay in Control Below $60, but Here Is Exactly When the Bias Changes Date: January 23, 2026 Market: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) | Micro Crude Oil (MCL) Author: Itai Levitan, investingLive.com As I show in my video above, this oil technical analysis for today focuses on the

Trade Wars vs Tech Profits: Why Gold is Overshadowing S&P 500 Traditionally, earnings season makes the S&P 500 the centre of the financial universe. However, as of today, markets are grappling with a rare collision of geopolitical and institutional shocks. Between President Trump’s tariff threats over the Greenland dispute and a Department of Justice (DOJ)

New Zealand inflation edged above target in Q4, reinforcing the RBNZ’s decision to pause further rate cuts. Summary: Q4 CPI rose 0.6%, lifting annual inflation to 3.1% Outcome exceeded market and RBNZ expectations Domestic costs led gains, including power, rents and rates Non-tradeable inflation remained elevated at 3.5% Data supports RBNZ’s signal that easing cycle

Silver has a long history of making incredible moves and this one is certainly on that list. It’s been a one-way parabolic move since $50 in late-November. Before then it was a steady climb higher and was just at $23 of the time of Trump’s second election. The combination of industrial demand, low mining supply

INTC stock has been the best performer on the S&P 500 so far this year. It’s become a market darling after the US government took a 10% stake in the company and ramped up subsidies. The China-style stake backing is suddenly a trading theme but it couldn’t survive Thursday’s earnings report. Shares fell 14% after

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left monetary policy unchanged earlier today in a 8-1 vote. The only dissenter was Takata once again as he proposed raising the policy rate to 1.00% instead. The details from earlier as covered by Eamonn: Bank of Japan leaves short term rate on hold, as expected BOJ holds rates at

Prior 47.0 Services PMI 53.3 vs 52.5 expected Prior 52.7 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.6 expected Prior 51.3 Full report here Key Points: Business activity growth quickens in January, but labour market conditions deteriorate Comment: Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The data

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 44 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 38 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 1 bps (100% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC: 13 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The dollar continues to struggle even in the aftermath of a cooler geopolitical climate as Trump backs down from his Greenland threats. The risk mood is better but the greenback falls further with precious metals surging even

EC Markets has announced the launch of its new flagship campaign, “Hold or Trade”, an innovative storytelling experience designed to connect the worlds of football and trading through real decisions, real emotion, and real human instinct. Inspired by the choices players make on the pitch, and the choices traders make in the markets, Hold or

Prior was 51.8 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.1 Manufacturing PMI 51.0 vs 50.5 expected Prior 50.7 Composite PMI 48.6 vs 50.0 expected Prior 50.0 With a start to the year like this, France is not beating the allegations that it will be the main drag of the euro area for 2026. While political woes are a key issue, the French economy

Headlines: Japanese yen jumps across the board on suspected intervention USD/JPY with a sharp drop lower after crossing the 159.00 mark earlier Japan finance minister Katayama declines to say if they intervened in the FX market BOJ governor Ueda says will place larger focus on inflation in making policy decisions BOJ governor Ueda says will

Prior was -0.2% Retail sales ex-autos vs +1.2% expected Prior ex-autos -0.6% Sales of $70.4 billion in November Core sales +1.6% vs -0.5% prior December advance sales -0.5% The core sales number is a strong one but part of that was the reopening of liquor stores in British Columbia after a strike. One sign of