Some headlines from the White House press briefing: Iran can no longer distribute weapons to its proxies Iran asked for an agreed to a ceasefire Iran has agreed to open Hormuz Iran’s original plan was discarded Iran then put forward a more-reasonable plan Trump’s red lines have not changed We’ve seen an uptick in Strait […]

The broader US stock indices remain solidly higher on the day, with the S&P up 2.10% and the NASDAQ up 2.54%, but the tone has shifted as upside momentum stalls and a tug-of-war develops between buyers and sellers. The rally ran into a technical ceiling ahead of the 100-day moving average in both indices, and

Fed’s Jefferson signals policy patience as oil-driven inflation risks rise and labour market fragility builds. Full text is here. Summary: Jefferson flags downside risks to employment, upside risks to inflation Fed policy seen as appropriately positioned and near neutral Labour market balanced but vulnerable to negative shocks Inflation still above target, with oil shock pushing

Lebanon is quickly becoming the biggest problem in ceasefire talks. Israeli top officials today said the ceasefire doesn’t apply to Lebanon and backed that up with a huge wave of strikes, including targeting 100 locations in Beirut. Both France and Pakistan have said that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire but the US hasn’t weighed

A regional source tells CNN that a deal between the US and Iran is expected to be closed tonight. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD surged higher following the cease-fire announcement after the close yesterday, but the bullish move was already taking shape earlier in the session. The pair found support against an upward-sloping trendline, which gave buyers the foundation to push higher. That momentum carried the price above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, and through

Crude oil prices are down sharply today with the front contract trading at $94.40. That is down 16.43%. The low for the day reached $91.05. The high was $109.19. The markets are reacting to the “cease-fire” deal, but the price is still remains well above the pre-war levels near $61.45. Technically, the tumble to the

Hezbollah is a saying that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon affirms its right for a response, and only strengthens the groups determination to resist and confront the enemy. Israel is saying that they confirm the attack of a Hezbollah commander in Beirut Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based Shiite political and militant group that operates as one of

Toward the end of day yesterday, the NZDUSD wsa coiling near low levels (see post here). The price was above a lower upward sloping trend line, and below a downward sloping trend line. The subsequent move higher on the ceasefire headlines said the price above the swing low from March 23 at 0.5760, and above

Sector Overview The technology sector emerged as a standout today, driven by impressive performances in semiconductor stocks. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 2.07%, while Intel (INTC) outperformed with an impressive 6.43% jump. Another notable performer, Broadcom (AVGO), surged by 3.60%. This upward momentum suggests renewed investor confidence in tech’s growth potential.Meanwhile, the energy sector faced

The US Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1 PM ET, with the long-end coming into the sale after a sharp rally in bonds that has pushed yields lower toward the 4.25% area. That move lower in yields—helped by easing geopolitical tensions and softer inflation expectations—could support demand, but traders will be

US treasury auctioned off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.282% High-yield 4.282% WI level at the time of the auction 4.280% Tail 0.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of 0.3 basis points. Bid to cover 2.43X versus average 2.49X Directs 23.9% versus average 19.2%. Indirect 65.3% versus average

There is a big uncertainty about whether Lebanon is involved in the ceasefire and if Iran will accept it if not. There is a report that a ship was turned around due to strikes on Lebanon. At the same time, Iran itself seems to be violating the agreement as it has sent drone strikes today.

The big news so far today: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Iran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal — Meanwhile, other news continues. The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a

It’s not at all clear what the basis for the ceasefire is and what are the points that will lead to a lasting agreement. That seems to be angering Trump, who is lashing out at the media again. More importantly, he said that the peace will be discussed behind closed doors. Numerous Agreements, Lists, and

The U.S. dollar has been under pressure for a while now. For starters, the country’s fiscal situation just keeps getting worse — national debt has shot past $39 trillion, even though the original plan was to bring it down. So far, strong demand for U.S. Treasuries has kept things from spiraling, but investors are already

The major US indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower, the S&P and NASDAQ index are marginally higher. The declines for the day were you raised after reports that Pakistan was brokering a cease fire deal. Pres. Trump said that negotiations were heated. The proposed deal calls for 2 weeks of kicking

The focus is hopefully going to shift back to the real economy now and that will include tomorrow’s PCE report and Friday’s CPI. During the time when the war dominated headlines, the news on the US economy was mostly good, highlighting that the economy was improving in February before bombs started falling. The big news

Prior 44.5 The downturn in the UK construction sector continues in March, even if at a less marked pace than in February. Of note, residential work remained by far the weakest-performing category. However, the standout in the report was a rapid acceleration in input cost inflation. That is leading to companies seeing their operating margins

In February 2026, the French trade balance showed a sharp decline of €3.8 billion to reflect a deficit of €5.8 billion. That owes to a significant increase in imports by €2.6 billion and a decrease in exports of only €1.2 billion. Looking at the details, the increase in imports was driven by higher imports of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

RBNZ expands media outreach after hold decision amid uncertain outlook – Breman schedule Reports that Iran will allow only 10-15 ships / day to pass through Strait of Hormuz Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected Bank of Korea seen holding rates on April 10 as oil shock

The war market is unwinding as the hopes for the Strait of Hormuz opening and hopes for denuclearization propelling the moves. The price of oil is down -17%. The 10 year yield is down -10.7 basis points to 4.235%, the US stock indices are sharply higher with Dow up 1310 points , the Nasdaq is

8pm US Eastern time is the time to watch, an extension is expected then or before. Oil is down equites up gold up This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3% UK house prices dipped a little in March, with the average property price now seen at £299,677. That also sees the annual house price growth slow to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in February. That shows the market has long some bounce going into the spring season but perhaps relative economic uncertainty from the

The USDCHF is extending to the downside, with price action breaking through a series of key technical levels that had previously acted as support. The pair has now moved below the 200-day moving average at 0.79428, the swing low from last week at 0.7903, and the 100-day moving average at 0.7888, and is probing below

Headlines: Risk-on wave tides over markets as US, Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire US president Trump says will work closely with Iran amid “very productive” regime change Oil prices dive after US-Iran ceasefire agreement; focus turns to Friday’s negotiations The US Dollar sinks on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement The S&P 500 almost erases March

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 surged into new highs today and basically erased all the March losses after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties

From the man himself: “The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.”

Bank of Korea set to hold on April 10 as oil shock clouds inflation and growth outlook. Summary: Bank of Korea expected to hold rates at 2.50% on April 10 Reuters poll shows unanimous no-change expectation Rates seen on hold through 2026 amid uncertainty Oil prices surge over 50%, lifting inflation risks Korea highly exposed

There are good developments about Iran They have agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz US and allies have agreed to stop attacking Iran That’s the basis of the “fragile truce” currently Some people within Iran have responded very favourably to the truce US negotiating team to work in good faith to get to an

Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.8% This is very much lagging data as the whole picture will change once we get to the March report. That as we will see a surge in energy inflation especially, which will translate to higher price pressures here and eventually make its way into consumer prices too. The picture before

Prior -11.1% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: Nothing in Federal Reserve act says the Fed should make the stock and Pres. happy. If actively talking about taking away the independence of the Fed, that is a bad idea. Inflation could come roaring back. Oil prices rising is a stagflationary shock. Fed is now in

Iran’s top joint military command Says it will deal with infrastructure of U.S. and its allies in the region in a way that will deprive them from the region’s oil and gas for years Says it will continue attacks on military, security and economic infrastructure of Israel and U.S. in the region with greater intensity

Trump: A whole civilization will die tonight Trump says in ‘heated negotiations’ with Iran Report: Iran ‘positively reviewing’ the request for a ceasefire Pakistan asks Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks and Iran to open Hormuz for 2 weeks Iranian media warns residents to stay off bridges in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE Vance

Trump announced a ceasefire: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Note this though, from Trump’s statement (a ‘truth’ tweet): subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz The White House adds that Israel has agreed to the temporary ceasefire.

The obvious target of such an attack would be the King Fahd Causeway, which is the main artery between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with millions of crossings each year. Bahrain’s hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment sectors are heavily dependent on visits from Saudi Arabia, along with many jobs that rely on cross-border commuting. The series of

Eyes are once again on the war makers. The current state of play is Pakistan has proposed a 2 week ceasefire to them both. Under consideration is the word from both. Trump’s deadline is 8pm US Eastern time, 0000 GMT. Apart from that the RBNZ is expected on hold today. I’ll have more to come

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices dived today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The ceasefire included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as condition. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

There are some positive ticks on this., which cites a senior official from Iran talking to Reuters. In terms of the two week proposal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavit tells Axios: The President has been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come This article was written by Adam Button at

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The risk-on wave across broader markets is helping to see a strong bounce in precious metals today. That as hope springs eternal after the US and Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire in trying to work out a more lasting peace in the region. Typically, fading geopolitical tensions tend to be a negative for the

Situation in the Middle East is still severely disrupting shipping and supply chains Hopefully the Strait of Hormuz will reopen About 1,000 ships are still stuck in the region, six of which are from Hapag-Llyod None of our ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz The extra costs per week due to the crisis

While overall business activity picked up in March, it belies the underlying mood in the sector as input cost inflation posts a record rise on the month. The pick up is helped by an improved mood in housing activity, posting its shallowest decline so far this year. In turn, that makes commercial activity the weakest-performing

Shariff: Says diplomatic efforts are progressing steadily Requests Trump extend the deadline for two weeks Requests Iran open the Strait for two weeks as a goodwill gesture Urges all sides to observe a ceasefire for two weeks to allow diplomacy and achieve a conclusive termination of the war Some positive movements in markets on this

High-yield 3.897% WI level at the time of the auction 3.909% Tail of -1.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of -0.3 basis points . Bid to cover 2.68X vs 6 auction average of 2.66X Dealers 13.28% versus 6 auction average of 12.3%. Directs 11.9% versus 6 auction average of 25.8%. Indirects 74.8% versus 6

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the

Iran’s biggest aluminium producer, Iranian Aluminium Company, located in Arak, has been hit. . The city of Arak is highly sensitive, as it is home to the IR-40 heavy water reactor, a key part of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure . IRALCO manufactures aluminium products that can be used in military and nuclear-related applications, including missile casings,

The news, ICYMI: TRUMP HAS AGREED TO SUSPEND IRAN BOMBING FOR TWO WEEKS Iran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal Joy for now, with difficult negotiations ahead. How long will this tentative ceasefire last? Some are giving it 48 hours. Don’t touch that dial! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Well, here we go again. Another two-week ceasefire but this time around, it seems like there is a better feeling that the war is slowly winding down. And perhaps more importantly, this time Iran is also agreeing to it and coming to the negotiating table. US president Trump dropped the news overnight and that is

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so I would wager that their relative impact will be minimal to none on a day like this. As things stand, the

Trump proposes two-week Iran ceasefire, signalling progress but leaving high risk of breakdown. Summary: Trump announces two-week ceasefire conditional on Hormuz reopening Claims US and Iran close to broader peace agreement 10-point Iranian proposal seen as workable negotiation basis Pakistan emerges as key intermediary in talks Ceasefire described as “double-sided” but conditional Significant risk remains

Trump was asked about Iran and said he “can’t comment” because he’s in “heated negotiations” with Iran. At this point it’s clear that negotiations are ongoing but we’re only four hours away from a brutal escalation. The market closed with a positive note so hopefully that can continue into tomorrow. More: Trump says he’s about

Israel’s reluctance casts doubt on ceasefire durability despite US-Iran progress. Summary: Israel signals reluctance to fully embrace US-Iran ceasefire, according to CNN Will follow US lead but still has additional military targets Iran demands include limits on Israeli operations against proxies Ceasefire described as tactical, not a final peace deal Talks to continue in Islamabad

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. The rate today at 6.8680 is the strongest for CNY since 17 April 2023. PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 78pday reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will compared to the 6 auction average for the major components. Below are the last values at the last 3 year note auction followed by the 6 auction average. High Yield: 3.579% (6-auction avg.

RBNZ seen holding steady as oil shock lifts inflation but weak growth argues for patience. Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid oil-driven supply shock Inflation seen rising above 4% with upside risks depending on oil path Growth outlook deteriorating, with recovery pushed into 2027 Central bank likely to look through initial inflation

RBNZ seen on hold as it navigates oil-driven inflation shock while signalling patience on policy tightening. Due at 0200 GMT / 2200 US Eastern time Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid energy-driven inflation shock Policymakers likely to look through near-term inflation but watch for persistence Communication to balance avoiding overtightening vs maintaining

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though a deal by Trump’s 8 pm ET deadline remains a “longshot”, Axios writes. This is the latest in the non-stop series of ‘leaks’ on the US/Israel-Iran war and it cites an Israeli official a “two other sources”

The US stocks have erased their declines. The S&P is up 5.02 points or 0.08%. The NASDAQ index is up 21.51 points or 0.10%. Crude oil is now lower with the May contract down -$0.12 or -0.12% at $112.40. The bond yields are also in negative territory with the 10 year down-2.2 basis points in

The NZDUSD is coiling as the clock ticks toward the 8 PM peace deadline, with price action tightening into a classic consolidation pattern. The pair remains capped below a downward-sloping trendline and the 100-hour moving average, and although buyers briefly pushed above both levels today, the move quickly failed—keeping sellers in control for now. At

Prior 51.9 Composite PMI 50.7 vs 50.5 prelim Prior 51.9 The headline estimate is a 10-month low while the composite reading is a 9-month low. All of this now points to the notion that the euro area economic recovery from last year is taking an abrupt knock. That as new orders/business fall hard amid elevated

The USDCHF moved lower yesterday, but importantly, the decline stalled right into a key technical cluster—the 100 and 200 hour moving averages—and the pair ultimately closed near those levels. That set the stage for today’s price action, where sellers made another push lower, but once again found willing buyers leaning against that same moving average

Prior 53.5 Final Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.9 prelim Prior 53.2 Key findings: New business falls for first time since last September Output price inflation eases despite spike in cost pressures Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The war in the Middle East has put the brakes on growth in

Iran’s Kharg Island targeted with several strikes Strike hits railway bridge in Iran’s Kashan killing two Israel: Completed a wave of attacks on Iran a short while ago It looks like we are entering a new phase of escalation as Israel confirmed a wave of airstrikes across Iran, targeting critical economic and transport hubs. Mehr

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating sharply, setting the tone for the trading day—and the clock is now ticking toward President Trump’s 8 PM deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the threat of widespread destruction of Iran’s electrical and bridge infrastructure. Ahead of that deadline, reports indicated that Israel, with

The EURUSD is pushing higher, with buyers taking control after leaning against key support in the European session. The pair held firmly above its 100-hour moving average (1.15447), with the session low reaching 1.15473 just ahead of the North American open. That hold was technically significant—it gave buyers the green light to step back in

Apple foldable iPhone faces delays as engineering issues hit test production phase US doubts Iran deadline extension as tough response seen as negotiating tactic (Axios) New Zealand Commodity prices jump. Middle East conflict drives near-record ANZ index surge Australia spending holds firm as inflation jumps and job ads fall Yuan seen strengthening to 6.8 as

Iran’s Kharg Island targeted with several strikes, Iran’s Kashan railway bridge hit too Senior Iranian source: Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US Gold maintains the bearish bias as Trump’s “final” deadline nears. What’s next? Yen-tervention likely to happen in the 161 to 163 range – Nomura UK March final services PMI 50.5

Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.5%) Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.8% vs +0.4% expected Prior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.3%) Durable goods ex-defense -1.2% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.2%) Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.1% (revised to -0.4%) This is a mixed bag. There are some pockets of strength but

The White House says, only the president knows on Iran negotiations. The Iranian regime has until 8 PM to make a deal. In other news, : The IRGC commander declares new phase of reprisal attacks against aggressors, and warned that if the US crosses redlines, the IRGC’s response will be extend far beyond the region

US signals fading patience on Iran deadline but keeps door open to last-minute deal. Summary: US doubts another deadline extension Iran’s response seen as tough but tactical White House views stance as negotiating posture Trump open to any deal outcome Military action may still be delayed if talks progress Situation remains finely balanced between escalation

Engineering hurdles threaten to delay Apple’s foldable iPhone rollout as EVT issues emerge. Summary: Apple’s foldable iPhone facing engineering delays Issues arise during EVT (test production phase) Suppliers warned of possible schedule shifts April–May key window to resolve challenges Initial production targeted at 7–8M units Premium positioning limits early volume Apple’s long-anticipated entry into the

The major U.S. indices are closing higher, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a resolution to the Iran conflict. The tone was supported by cautious optimism, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated. President Trump set a hard deadline, warning that the U.S. could target bridges and energy infrastructure starting at 8 PM ET

Prior 52.3 Composite PMI 49.2 vs 52.1 prior Key findings: Fresh declines in output and new business Highest rate of cost inflation in over three years, driving a steeper hike in charges Confidence among weakest in more than five years Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The Italian services economy showed signs

Summary: Fire broke out in La Boca near the Bridge of the Americas and fuel-linked facilities Bridge traffic was suspended while authorities assessed structural safety One person was reported missing and two firefighters were injured Preliminary reports indicate the blaze began in a fuel tanker and spread Incident occurred beside the Pacific entrance area of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been consolidating since Thursday’s selloff when Trump disappointed the market in his address to the nation by maintaining the hawkish stance towards Iran and reiterating the 2–3 week timeline for ending the war. We haven’t got any meaningful development in the meantime, although Trump set a “final” deadline for Iran to

It’s a dangerous moment in world history right now as we count down to Trump’s 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to make a deal. So far there is no indication that Trump will move that deadline for the fourth time. On the wires now, a ‘senior Iranian sources’ is out with some comments to

Following a series of successful cashback promotions in 2025, leading broker XM has launched a new cashback promotion that pays clients for their trades. In spring 2026, it amps up its offering rewarding active traders up to $7 back for every lot traded and giving them the option to unlock an unlimited amount of cash.

Trump posts on Truth Social: A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will

Scotiabank is out with a note today on Meta and it highlights a slate of problems in the company’s core business: Advertising. It paints a picture of Meta that should worry bulls more than the macro backdrop does. Scotia said that 25% of the expert’s advertising clients are either pulling back or walking away from

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 and 1.1525 levels. They don’t tie to any technical significance but could play some role in terms of limiting price action in the session ahead, depending on the market

NY Fed Pres. and voting member Willaims is apeaking and says: Iran war impact will drive up headline inflation things that inflation from Iran war will go directly into headline. Inflation given energy. Inflation issue should be around 2.75%. it is very focused on underlying inflation. Story on core inflation hasn’t changed very much. Hasn’t

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday, pushing back above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which had been tightly converged—a signal that momentum was trying to shift back in favor of the buyers. However, the rally ran into a familiar ceiling, with sellers stepping in near 0.6938, the low end of a broader swing area that

We already got a sense of that with the stronger verbal intervention last week, before some market optimism helped to keep further dollar strength in check. But as the volatility swings continue and the Middle East conflict drags on, the risks continue to stay heightened for the dollar to gain and for the yen to

Summary: Israel prepares expanded strike list targeting Iranian energy and infrastructure Plans contingent on U.S. approval, with Trump decision seen as pivotal Israeli officials sceptical diplomacy will succeed Ceasefire demands include full uranium handover and end to enrichment Netanyahu raised concerns directly with Trump in recent talks Military coordination discussed following rescue of U.S. pilots

This is a bizarre communication strategy where you have Vance and Trump saying very different things. Vance is now saying the war could end “very shortly”. The military objectives of the Iran war have been completed, Vance said and added that “we hope Iran is smart.” He reiterated that 8 pm ET is the deadline

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower yesterday, but the price action was more about consolidation than conviction, with the pair trading above and below its 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.3916) and settling into a sideways range. That pause has been important technically, as it has allowed the 200-hour moving average (now at 1.3904) to catch up

Blue Owl shares hit record lows as redemption requests surge, forcing limits on withdrawals and loan sales. The move highlights growing stress in private credit, with liquidity concerns and AI-related risks weighing on sentiment. Summary: Blue Owl shares hit record lows amid sustained selling pressure Redemption limits imposed after surge in withdrawal requests Highlights liquidity

SpaceX gears up for record IPO with massive retail allocation and June roadshow. Summary: SpaceX targets late May prospectus, early June roadshow Plans major global IPO with potential $75bn raise Valuation could reach ~$1.75 trillion Retail investors to play central role in allocation 1,500 retail investors to be invited to dedicated event Broad international retail

Prior 53.9 Final Composite PMI 50.3 vs 51.0 prelim Prior 53.7 Key findings: Output growth eases amid renewed decline in new work Input price inflation highest since April 2025 due to surge in fuel costs Business optimism falls to its lowest for nine months Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

Yuan seen strengthening despite seasonal headwinds as fundamentals and flows dominate. Earlier: PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8854, the strongest, for CNY, in nearly 3 years. Summary: Strategists see yuan strengthening to ~6.8/USD in Q2 Defies typical seasonal weakness from tourism and dividends Currency up ~3% in Q1 vs peers Strong

Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US Tehran has set preconditions for talks with the US on a lasting peace Preconditions include an immediate halt to strikes, guarantees strikes will not be repeated and compensation for damages Under a permanent peace deal, Tehran demands fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz

Japanese Household Spending February 2026 Japan’s households reduced spending for a third straight month -1.7% y/y vs. expected -0.7%, prior -1% +1.5% m/m vs. expected 2.6%, prior -2.5% —- Also … Summary: Katayama declines to comment on JGB yield levels Flags G7 concern over oil-driven market volatility Notes close coordination with G7 finance ministers and

China gold reserves at the end of March 2026: 74.38 million troy ounces In February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of March 2026: $342.76 billion In February 2026: $387.59 billion In terms of value, China’s reserves in gold declined on the month but that is to be expected

Prior 49.6 Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.3 prelim Prior 49.9 The readings might be revised higher in the final report but they are still much softer than in February. A sharper decline in new business weighed on business activity with the war in the Middle East also reportedly hit order books. As such, it is

Prior -3.1 That’s the softest reading since April 2025 as euro area investor sentiment plunges amid the US-Iran conflict. The surge higher in energy prices and supply chain disruptions are two major factors in dragging down investor morale with Sentix noting that “investors realise that recession is once again on the table”. Adding that “the

Australia data show resilient spending but rising inflation and softer labour demand. Summary: Household spending +0.3% m/m in Feb, ahead of expectations Annual spending growth steady at 4.6% Services spending strong, goods modest Data predates energy-driven inflation shock TD-MI inflation gauge surges 1.3% m/m in March Signals renewed inflation pressures, likely fuel-driven Job ads fall

Summary: Services PMI falls to 46.3, back into contraction after 26 months Composite PMI fell to 46.6 in March, down from 52.4 in February Sharp drop from 52.8, weakest since November 2023 New orders decline, with exports hit by Middle East conflict Broad-based weakness, led by finance & insurance Input costs surge to multi-year highs

Middle East supply shock drives broad commodity surge, pushing ANZ index near record highs. Summary: Commodity prices surged in March amid Middle East conflict ANZ index rose 4.1% m/m, near record highs Gains broad-based; dairy, aluminium led Supply fears triggered precautionary buying UAE smelter damage tightened aluminium supply NZD weakness boosted local price index to

Summary: Anthropic plans ~$200m investment in AI-focused PE venture Total raise could reach ~$1bn with major buyout firms involved Platform aims to deploy AI tools across PE portfolio companies Focus on automation and enterprise-scale integration Competes with similar initiative being explored by OpenAI PE firms seen as ideal channel for scaling AI adoption Signals shift

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The likelihood of adverse inflation scenario is increasing Inflation expectations may shift faster due to memory of price surge after the Russia-Ukraine conflict ECB must be ready to act if signs of inflation persistence emerge But it is too early to say if a rate hike is needed on 30 April for now Inflation expectations

Saudi defence ministry Says it has intercepted and destroyed 7 ballistic missiles targeting Eastern Region Says missile debris fell near energy facilities, damage being assessed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A low-key sort of session ahead for incoming data. None of this is likely to move markets too much upon release. Asia will be holding its breath ahead of the latest Trump war deadline: Trump extends Iran deadline to Tuesday, aggressively threatens power grid destruction Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is ‘final deadline’ This article was

It’s been the case for a few weeks now. We start the week with some sense of renewed optimism only for it to be dashed through the coming days and then markets choosing to de-risk into the weekend. Will this week be the same? There’s certainly an air of familiarity to it. US president Trump

Summary: Negotiators see low odds of Iran meeting Trump’s Hormuz deadline U.S. may target bridges and power plants if talks fail Pattern of ultimatum → strikes or extensions seen in past Iranian officials expect continued military pressure regardless of talks Ceasefire efforts ongoing but limited progress Trump signalling both openness to talks and readiness to

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said on Monday that the US stock market correction is largely done, with rates, not war, the final hurdle before equities resume higher. Summary: Wilson sees current weakness as a late-stage correction within an ongoing bull market S&P 500 forward P/E down ~18%, a rare reset outside recession/tightening cycles Earnings growth accelerating,

Major US stock indices close today with gains to start the new trading week Trump Press Conference: The entire country can be taken out in one night Netanyahu urged Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire – report Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is ‘final deadline’ Iran rejects ceasefire in reply

HSBC’s Kettner says markets have triggered a buy signal after a sharp positioning reset, but warns a hot CPI could push yields toward 4.5%, a “danger zone” that risks broad pressure across equities, credit and EM assets. Earlier: Morgan Stanley says US stock correction largely done. Rates the final hurdle before higher But: ICYMI: Fed’s

The EURUSD moved higher during the Asian and early European sessions, breaking above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages—a shift that tilted the short-term bias more bullish. The pair extended to a high near 1.15549, pushing above a key swing area before encountering sellers. Since that high, the corrective move lower has been orderly,

Sector Overview The US stock market saw a vibrant momentum today, largely driven by robust performances in the technology and financial sectors. The technology sector showed remarkable resilience with notable gains from giants like Apple (AAPL), which soared by an impressive 2.41%. Supported by consistent demand for hardware innovations, Apple demonstrated its market dominance and

As the Pres. starts the press conference: 2 year yield 3.852% 10 year yield 4.332% S&P up 14.25 points or 0.21% Nasdaq up 47 points or 0.23% Dow +61 points Crude oil $112.76 Gold $4658 Silver $72.55 Bitcoin $69,647 EURUSD 1.1538 USDJPY 159.76 GBPUSD 1.3222 Headlines from the Press conference: The entire country can be

The US stock market is higher today but there’s one major exception: Tesla shares are down 2.6% in the second day of selling. Shares sank 5% on Thursday after the company reported Q1 deliveries of 358K compared to 372K expected. There was a moderate rebound at the open today but that reversed despite a positive

Axios reporter Barak Ravid said Trump on and Netanyahu held a call on Sunday night: Israeli prime minister Netanyahu urged Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire at the moment and expressed concern about the riskes of such a move, an Israeli official said Trump reportedly circled the importance of

A proposed 45-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is currently being discussed but remains one of several options under consideration, with no formal approval from President Trump. A White House official emphasized that the President has not signed off on the plan, and that military operations (“Operation Epic Fury”) are ongoing. Attention now turns

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD often move together, but technically they are telling different stories right now. For the AUDUSD, the pair moved lower at the end of March and approached its rising 100-day moving average (0.6833), but held above that level and rebounded. Last week, price action was choppy, trading above and below the 100-

Trump has extended the deadline to strike Iran’s infrastructure three times and now he says the Tuesday at 8 pm ET deadline is the final one. I’m not sure that statement carries much credibility in markets but time will tell. Trump also said that the war could end ‘very quickly’ if if Iran “does the

The USD is trading lower to kickstart the new trading week on this Easter Monday, although liquidity is thinner with the UK and much of Europe out for the holiday. Even with lighter participation, the market is being driven by weekend headlines, keeping traders cautious and reactive to geopolitical developments. Over the weekend, President Trump

Canada is closed today for the Easter Monday holiday, but U.S. markets remain open and active. Equity futures are pointing to a mixed start, with the Dow modestly lower, the S&P 500 slightly higher, and the NASDAQ leading the way with gains of around 100 points. Meanwhile, U.S. yields have rotated lower after an early

Business activity index 53.9 vs 59.9 prior Employment 45.2 vs 51.8 prior New orders 60.6 vs 58.6 prior– two year high Prices paid 70.7 vs 63.0 prior — highest in three-and-a-half years Supplier deliveries 56.2 vs 53.9 prior Inventories 54.8 vs 56.4 prior Backlog of orders 53.6 vs 55.9 prior New export orders 50.7 vs

Services activity declined, with the PMI at 47.2 (below 50 = contraction), though slightly improved from February at 46.5 New business fell again, but the pace of decline eased to a 5-month low Geopolitical uncertainty (Middle East war) weighed heavily on demand, with clients delaying or pausing projects Input costs surged to a 9-month high,

IRNA reports that Iran has relayed its rejection of a ceasefire plan. The message from Tehran has been consistent, they want a permanent end to the war with security guarantees and compensation, not a temporary ceasefire. They say they’ve been attacked during negotiations before and want everything settled before unblocking Hormuz. “That’s not surprising,” said

For some context, the report from Friday: US March non-farm payrolls +178K vs +60K expected The jobs data was much stronger than anticipated and certainly might have shut the door on talk of rate cuts, if not already because of the US-Iran conflict in the past month. CIBC weighs in by saying that: “Payroll employment

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading higher to start the new week, with the S&P up 0.36% and the NASDAQ up 0.50%. The early gains are helping both indices move back above their 100-hour moving averages, which were broken late Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Those levels—6563.31 for the S&P and

The world is dangerously close to a massive escalation in the Iran war, as Trump has threatened to strike Iran’s infrastructure, including energy, power and bridges. Iran has pledged to attack the energy infrastructure and possibly desalization infrastructure of gulf neighbors in response. Trump set a deadline for 8 pm ET on Tuesday to open

The headline comes from Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson in saying that Tehran has formulated its diplomatic response to the US but will only announce it in due time. We have to wait and see but there is a mixed reception towards all the headlines from the rumour mill in the past 24 hours. For now,

Nasdaq Futures Hold Key Support – Can Bulls Maintain Control Above 23,100? Start with my Nasdaq tecnical analysis video from today Key Takeaways Nasdaq futures remain resilient despite macro noise, holding above critical support A double rejection at resistance earlier set the tone for the current structure The 23,100-23,120 zone acts as the key “line

Tehran has received Pakistan’s proposal, it is being reviewed Will not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decision Iran will not reopen Strait of Hormuz Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ‘temporary ceasefire’ Believes that US lacks readiness for a permanent ceasefire If there’s any question that Iran might want to strike a

Bitcoin futures price prediction today: BTC reclaims post-roll value area, but bullish repair still needs acceptance above $69,320 Prediction Score: +4.0 (The prediction score ranges from -10 (extreme bearish control) through 0 (neutral or indecisive conditions) to +10 (extreme bullish control), combining both direction and confidence into a single scale. Short-term bias: moderately bullishConfidence: medium

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. With it being Easter Monday and all, expect it to be a quieter session in European morning trade today. With no major expiries in play, price action is likely to stay more muted amid a lack of

Trump extends Hormuz deadline to Tuesday while escalating threats to destroy Iran’s core infrastructure, keeping pressure high but leaving a narrow diplomatic window. Summary: Trump sets Tuesday 8pm USET deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz (WSJ reporting, gated)) Deadline effectively extended from Monday Threat escalates to full power grid + bridge destruction Tone extremely aggressive,

Mon: Holiday: Easter Monday, Canadian Services/Composite PMI (Mar), US ISM Services (Mar), Australian Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), Japanese Household Spending (Feb) Tue: EIA STEO (Apr), EZ/UK Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods Orders (Feb), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar) Wed: FOMC Minutes (Mar),

This is not a one-sided war. Iran has shown it can still hit back. Iranian fire brought down a U.S. F-15E, an A-10 was also hit during the rescue effort, and the wider conflict has now wounded 365 U.S. service members and killed 13, according to Pentagon data reported by AP. Iran is also still

Intel stock analysis today: INTC reclaims 48.50 support, shifts the next upside level to 53.50, and heads into April 23 earnings with improving momentum Prediction score: +5.7 Bias: Moderately bullish Outlook: Bullish repair in progress, but not a fully proven breakout yet INTC is an interesting stock. Some think it’s up for some wrong reasons.

If you follow investingLive.com, then you may have seen our earlier crypto call on Ethereum starting to be posivively bullish 4 days ago. This all happens as oil prices are continuing to surge this week s atraders priced in the real possibility of a prolonged crisis with Iran, which would typically impose a ‘risk off’

Prior -92K (revised to -133K) Two-month net revision -7K January was +126K (revised to +160K). December was -141K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected. Prior unemployment rate 4.4%. Unrounded unemployment 4.256%% vs 4.441% prior Participation rate 61.9% vs 62.0% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 7.9% prior Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected

The July 1 deadline for the USMCA six-year review is approaching and almost nobody in trade circles believes it will be met cleanly. A Scotiabank-hosted event in Mexico City this week with CSIS fellow Diego Marroquín Bitar laid out why, and the takeaway is straightforward: expect a drawn-out, painful process that extends well into 2027,

Trump posted this on Truth Social: With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP Trump initially pitched a 4-6 week timeline for this war and then repeatedly said they were ahead of

It’s the first Friday of the month and that means it’s time for non-farm payrolls. It’s a holiday today in much of the world and US stock and bond markets are closed, so that will make for an interesting released. The FX market has been quiet so far today and S&P 500 futures are down

The markets opened up sharply lower after the Trump news conference yesterday, but rebounded with the broader indices closing in positive territory. At session lows: S&P was down -100.38 points NASDAQ index was down -469.63 points They are closing near the highs: S&P index is up 7.36 points or 0.11% at 6582.68 NASDAQ index is

The AUDUSD slipped below its 100-hour moving average at 0.68846 during the Asian session, and early attempts to hold below that level added a more bearish technical tone. However, downside momentum stalled near 0.6858, signaling a lack of follow-through from sellers. As equities recovered, the pair rebounded and moved back above the 100-hour moving average,

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

One of the first questions you might ask when looking at a new strategy is: “What’s the win rate?” Sounds like a perfectly logical question! After all, winning more often must mean the strategy works… right? Further down the road, this thinking leads to chasing high win-rate setups… perhaps tweaking rules to avoid losses, before abandoning strategies after short

Let’s dig into the non-farm payrolls report and the numbers we have so far. What’s expected: Consensus estimate +60K (range -25K to +125K) January -92K Private payrolls consensus estimate +70K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior Participation rate prior 62.0% Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% y/y vs

Goolsbee warns the oil shock risks derailing disinflation, with duration key. Rising gasoline prices could lift inflation expectations, complicating Fed policy just as inflation was expected to ease. ICYMI, Thursday oil price jump: WTI crude oil up $11.25 to $111.38 Summary: Goolsbee flags oil surge as “pretty serious,” with duration key for inflation outlook Warns

Japan’s services sector remains in expansion but is losing a little momentum, with weaker demand growth, rising energy-driven costs, and sharply lower business confidence signalling a more uncertain outlook. Summary: Japan Services PMI eases to 53.4 (prev 53.8), still solid expansion New orders growth slows to a three-month low Cost pressures intensify, driven by energy

China’s services sector remains in expansion but is slowing, with domestic demand supporting growth while weak exports, falling employment and price discounting point to softer underlying momentum. Summary: China Services PMI eases to 52.1 (prev 56.7), still expansionary Growth slows sharply from February’s 33-month high Domestic demand remains the key driver of activity New export

US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate US February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expected Canada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expected Trump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a deal Iran drafts protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz traffic Fed’s Williams: Monetary

It’s a sparse agenda in Asia. Much of the region is out for the Good Friday holiday. But Japan is open. From Japan and China its Services PMIs. Earlier this week: Japan’s manufacturing in expansion but losing momentum China official March PMIs returned to expansion China private manufacturing PMI in expansion for 4th straight month,

Throughout this conflict, there has been a general alignment in markets. It has led to a sortof ‘war-on’ or ‘war-off’ trade where crude oil would rally on signs of escalation and it would mean stocks and bonds would fall, along with US dollar strength. Today is a big departure from that. WTI crude oil is

Energy prices affect inflation and disposable income Higher energy prices hit both sides of the Fed’s mandate So far the war is showing up in gasoline prices but not yet economic data Uncertainty and risks have increased in both directions It takes months or even years for energy to work its way through Markets are

Comments from the Dallas Fed President: Was quite challenging to do most recent round of Fed forecasts Swift war resolution may mean economic impact might be pretty moderate Policy is positioned to respond to data, Fed prepared to make adjustments as needed US has some buffers to impacts from the war Key question is if

US deploys low-cost ‘Lucas’ drone inspired by Iranian design in war. Wall Street Journal report (gated) Summary: US deploys low-cost “Lucas” drone built from reverse-engineered Iranian tech Rapid development marks shift toward cheaper, scalable warfare systems Drones used in strikes on Iranian military and IRGC infrastructure Cost efficiency contrasts sharply with traditional US munitions Highlights

The NZDUSD has erased the gains from Tuesday and Wednesday, after stalling just ahead of a key resistance zone yesterday. That earlier move higher on Wednesday pushed toward the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 20 high to this week’s low, which comes in at 0.57714. The high price reached 0.5776, but buyers

Baker Hughes weekly rig count data shows: Total rigs 548 vs 543 last Oil rigs 411 vs 409 last week Nat Gas 430 vs 427 last week. The price of crude oil is trading at $110.75. That’s up $10.60. The gain today is the highest since March 6. The high price reached $113.97. The high

Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed. Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It’s the only stock market holiday that isn’t also a federal holiday.

Market Flash: Broad Declines as Semiconductor Stocks Weigh Heavily on Tech Sector The US stock market exhibited a broad downturn today, primarily driven by significant losses in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, while financials gave a mixed performance. Let’s unpack today’s market movements and sentiments. 🖥️ Technology Sector: Struggles Persist Amidst Semiconductor Slumps Semiconductors: Nvidia

Trump is reported to have fired Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi. Fox news reports that he is eyeing Lee Zeldin as a replacement, but Todd Blanche is reportedly the interim AG. Trump has reportedly been frustrated with Bondi’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, and Zeldin’s name has come up most frequently in discussions of potential

Prior was -3.65B (revised to -$4.18B) Exports 66.31B vs 62.488B prior Imports 72.05B vs 66.13B prior Canada’s merchandise trade activity increased sharply, with imports rising 8.4% and exports increasing 6.4%. There were some big swings in gold that made this report look worse than it was. Excluding unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and

The report says that OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further increase in oil production when the bloc convenes on Sunday. That so as to position themselves to add more barrels if and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens for business. As a reminder, the bloc already agreed to a 206k bpd output boost for

In a post and video yesterday on USDCHF, I highlighted a key support zone between 0.7888 and 0.7903 that was being tested—and holding. At the time, I noted that this area had become a critical battleground. Buyers were leaning against it on the first test, helping to stall the decline. Why? Because it offered something

Trump on Truth Social posts: The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — Much more to follow! IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY! President DONALD J. TRUMP Earlier,

The comments are coming from the IRGC in saying that they have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities in Gulf states. Adding that these strikes are just a “warning” for now. And if Iranian facilities and industries are hit again, the IRGC vows that “the next response will be more painful”. Despite what Trump claims

Villeroy is set to retire but he’s out with some fresh comments: It’s far too early to predict a timetable for rate hikes but it’s clear we have the capacity to act whenever it’s necessary As of today, we are closer to the ECB’s adverse scenario than the baseline The ‘far too early’ line excludes

Prior -54.50 billion Exports 314.8 billion vs 302.2 billion prior Imports 372.1 billion vs 356.9 billion prior The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $84.6 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $27.3 billion.Year-to-date, the goods and

Headlines: Oil extends gains, risk slumps further after Trump address Crude oil surges back above $100 after Trump’s speech as traders price out optimism Dollar back in favour as Trump address dims market optimism Gold erases gains as Trump disappoints the market; Downside risks remain Iran claims to have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities

A report that’s getting some of the credit for the bounce in risk assets is from IRNA and says that Iran has drafted a protocol with Oman for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs confirmed the report but framed it more as housekeeping than some kind

Trump reiterates Iran stance with no new signals. Markets tilt cautiously risk-off. Summary: Trump declares Iran operation largely successful Signals potential exit within 2-3 weeks (unchanged) but keeps strike option open No new clarity on Hormuz reopening Ceasefire messaging remains inconsistent No confirmation of ground troop deployment Market reaction reflects mild risk-off tone US President

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices rose back to the weekly highs after Trump disappointed the market in today’s speech. Earlier in the week, crude oil came under pressure after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz

The NZDUSD pushed higher yesterday and extended the move again today, but upside momentum stalled where it matters most technically. On the hourly chart, the pair made three separate attempts to break above the 38.2% retracement at 0.57714 (from the March 20 high). While price briefly traded above that level twice, buyers could not generate

The FT is reporting on this, citing officials and industry executives as saying that the Gulf states are looking to explore new pipelines to reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz in exporting their oil and gas. That as Iran continues to cause a more vulnerable situation amid their open-ended threat and control over

It’s been a tough read on precious metals throughout the whole US-Iran conflict. In more normal circumstances, you would think geopolitical tensions would buff demand for precious metals. Instead, we’re seeing the complete opposite this time around. There are a couple of reasons for that of course. The first of course is the inflation shock.

We are now in the fifth week of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Although the U.S. president has repeatedly stated that victory is near and that the situation will be resolved soon, tensions remain high and could escalate further, hurting the Dow Jones index and XAGUSD in the process. On the one

There is a bounce in the war trade after the market open. It’s a tough one because it’s a long weekend and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report is also a tricky one (though I don’t think it matters that much). The big question is: Will Trump escalate or cut-and-run? For most of this week, the market

The USD is moving higher today as the “good times” tone from the last two sessions reverses to the downside. Risk sentiment has shifted, and the flows are reflecting that change. US yields are back on the rise, with the 10-year now up to 4.355% after testing the 4.25% level yesterday. That move higher in

The dollar dropped yesterday as the anticipation ahead of US president Trump’s address fueled market optimism. There was some expectation that Trump would see this as an opportunity to hang a “mission accomplished” banner on the war. But alas, it wasn’t exactly the case when the time came. There was plenty of speculation on what

Too early to say what we’ll need to do in April Caution needed on interest rates as situation is changing We see rising consumer inflation expectations, but I wouldn’t overplay that It’s important to maintain credibility ECB has shown it’s an institution that can deal with an inflation shock with decisive action ECB’s Simkus has

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 gave back most of the gains accumulated since Tuesday when Trump said that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. Later that day we also had the Iranian President saying that they were ready to end the war but wanted

The weekly initial and continuing claims shows: Initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate. Prior week revised to 211K from 210K 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 207.75K versus 210.75K last week. Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.839M estimate. 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.839M vs 1.846M last week. The dominant theme

US-based employers announced 60,602 job cuts in March, some 25% higher than what was seen in February. That being said, it is down roughly 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year. But as you can remember, that owed much to Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative at the time. “Removing

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 500mn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations. Another tiny injection. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TMGM today announced its role as an emergency contribution supporter for UNICEF Australia, providing a donation to support urgent humanitarian needs in the Gaza Strip. This contribution is a key element of TMGM’s global Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) strategy, aiming to provide substantial assistance to children affected by the ongoing conflict. Addressing a Critical Crisis

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.” In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning

Tsunami threat issued: M 7.8 119 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia Depth 10.0 km Impacts could extend to shores of Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The market is pricing in hope for the end of the war and the blockade of Hormuz and that led to a second day of gains for equities. Early in the day, it looked like the same kind of powerful strength that we saw yesterday but the enthusiasm faded later in the day Closing changes:

The main focal point today will, of course, be Trump speaking: Trump will say the Iran war is “winding down” in address, will criticize NATO There is still US troop movement to the Middle East so regardless of what he says he might sneak in a ground assault some time over the weekend. This article

South Korea scrambles for oil supply as Hormuz disruption forces sourcing shift. Summary: South Korea secures ~50m barrels of alternative oil for April Hormuz disruption cuts access to Middle East crude flows Government taps multiple suppliers and manages demand Shortfall remains versus normal import levels Australia LNG curbs seen as limited impact South Korea has

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. Well, the dollar sentiment has shifted around as US president Trump didn’t offer much of anything new in his address towards the Iran situation earlier. He reaffirmed that it will

Remarks here, distilled from a long rambling speech. Trump address: Going to hit Iran very hard over the next 2-3weeks Market movement over the previous 2 days were hinged on an announcement of him pulling out. Not yet though. Oil popped a little: Gold, AUD down … markets a risk off response, but not an

South Korea secures alternative oil as Hormuz disruption hits supplies AUD, NZD fall as oil surge and ongoing war risks lift stagflation fears PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8880 (vs. estimate at 6.8764) Trump offers no new Iran signals; markets turn cautious after speech Trump spoke without adding new info, still

Exports surged while imports fell very sharply: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump speaking, says: Iran’s navy is gone Air Force is in ruins Most of Iran’s leaders are dead Situation has been ongoing for 47 years, too long Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism Getting close to finishing the job Allies should take the lead in protecting Hormuz, US will help When conflict is over

AUD and NZD slide as oil shock fuels stagflation fears and rate hike expectations. Summary: AUD and NZD fall as oil surge and war risks weigh on growth outlook Hormuz disruption fuels stagflation concerns across global markets Trump signals conflict may end but keeps near-term military pressure Markets price higher inflation and further RBA tightening

Hedge funds hit by worst drawdown in years as volatility forces de-risking. Summary: Hedge funds suffer worst monthly drawdown since January 2022 Fundamental long/short strategies hit hardest across all regions Asia-focused funds lead losses, followed by Europe and US Volatility from Iran war and cross-asset moves drove de-risking Systematic strategies outperform as discretionary funds struggle

This chatter doing the rounds: Unconfirmed reports (Fautuks Network on twitter / X being cited) citing Fox News suggest Trump may signal the possible use of ground troops to secure Iranian uranium in an upcoming speech, a scenario analysts say would involve complex and high-risk operations. *** Update: Faytuks Network deletes earlier post on this.

Trump yesterday announced that he will deliver a speech at 9 pm today. There have been hints and leaks about it all day and now we have another one from Politico that says: Trump will declare the war is “winding down” He’s expected to claim that all military objectives have been met He intends to

The FT reports that Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined a Hormuz coalition to break the blockade. That’s using one geopolitical crisis as a bargaining chip in another — and evidently it worked. The Europeans had been saying the strait situation was “not our war,” but after Trump went — reportedly

Yesterday, Pres Trump posted on Truth Social: Today, the French Navy Chief is speaking and saying: Number of Chinese vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz not enough to restore normal traffic flows China will probably need to engage more directly in the debate and show its impatience on closure of Strait of Hormuz. France’s

Prior month 0.0% revised from +0.1% Details Sales: $1.9746T in January; +0.3% m/m (vs Dec 2025), +4.5% y/y Inventories: $2.6750T; -0.1% m/m vs 0.1 estimate, +1.0% y/y Inventories/Sales Ratio: 1.35, down from 1.40 in Jan 2025 At its core, the Census Business Inventories report is a pulse check on demand vs. supply across the U.S.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have come under some pressure yesterday after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. The losses extended further later in the day when the Iranian President said that they

The broader market is optimistic about a resolution in Hormuz and Iran despite mediocre and mixed signals from Washington and Tehran. The S&P 500 is up 1.2% in a continued rally from yesterday and it’s tough to hang it on any headline. Trump has repeatedly indicate that the US is ready to declare ‘mission accomplished’

Prior 47.4 Swiss manufacturing activity was surprisingly more robust in March, despite the impact of the Middle East conflict already starting to show up. Of note, production levels returned to expansion territory with it rising by 3.6 points to 50.6 in March. Meanwhile, the manufacturing orderbook also rose strongly by 7.3 points to 54.2 on

Prior 50.1 It’s just a minor downgrade to the final estimate as France’s manufacturing sector continues to stagnate in light of the Middle East conflict. The two biggest things to note are that suppliers’ delivery times and input cost inflation both surged significantly on the month. The former lengthened to its greatest degree since January

The AUDUSD moved higher with the risk-on flows yesterday. However, the price did run into some topside resistance that stalled the pair. IN the post and video, I referenced that area: …the real test was just ahead. The price remains below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 – a prior support zone that

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate from their model has dipped to 1.9% from 2.0%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.9 percent on April 1, down from 2.0 percent on March 23. After this morning’s retail sales

If we have prolonged high energy prices and supply disruption, it will strain many countries quite seriously We will have to act if appropriate, but tackling the source of the energy price shock is most important I’m very clear we need to return inflation to target in a way that causes the least damage to

Prior was 50.9 Key findings: Cost pressures intensify in March alongside notable supply chain delays Output and new orders buoyed as customers react to disruption Business expectations retreat sharply to four month low Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The immediate impacts of the war in the Middle East on

The White House is saying that Pres. Trump is to reiterate 2 – 3 week timetable for the end of the Iran operations. The president is to address the nation at 9 PM ET. Course how all this ends is anyone’s guess. Israel if it had it’s way would want it to go on until

War shocks have increased risks to economy and inflation He can see scenarios of both hiking and cutting rates Mon pol currently at the low end of neutral (I think he means top of neutral range) Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in current environment Tariffs are still inflation driver but should wane Says he’s

Prior was 51.0 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bank of England Governor Bailey struck a cautious tone, emphasizing risks around inflation, financial stability, and growth, while signaling the need to stay flexible on policy as conditions evolve. We will have to act if appropriate, but tackling source of energy price shock is most important If high energy prices and supply disruptions persist, it

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reuters is citing a source briefed on the matter: The VP has been talking to ‘intermediaries’ about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday Trump directed Vance to communicate privately that he is open to a ceasefire as long as certain US demands met including reopening Hormuz Vance delivered a ‘stern’ message that Trump was

Trump spoke with Reuters in an interview: Does not care about nuclear material, will watch via satellite Will express ‘my disgust’ with NATO in speech and says he is absolutely considering withdrawing Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, nor do they want one We have some more targets left. If we have to, we

This crisis is worse than the two in the 1970s and Russia-related in 2022 put together Some 40 key energy assets have been damaged in the Middle East More than 12 million bpd of oil supply has been lost so far to the Middle East crisis The oil loss in April is expected to be

Sector Overview 📈 Technology & Semiconductors: The technology sector, especially semiconductors, led today’s market rally. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) showed brisk gains of 1.03% and 3.65%, respectively. Intel (INTC) stood out with an impressive rise of 8.59%, bolstering investor confidence in the semiconductor space. 📉 Energy Sector: Struggling to keep up, the

Prior was +6926K Gasoline -586K vs -1876K exp Distillates -2111K vs -586K exp Refinery utilization -0.8% vs +1.5% exp The API data from late yesterday: Crude +10263K Gasoline -3209K Distillates -1040K The big build is negative for oil and it’s the second one in a row.That’s hard to believe given what’s happening in the Middle

It’s an up day! The major stock indices moved sharply to the upside in hopes that the into the Iranian war will be over sooner rather than later. That is still open for debate, but with the major indices down sharply for the month, the market was in the mood to push to the upside.

Prior 51.7 Key findings: Input price inflation hits 41-month high Suppliers’ delivery times lengthen to greatest extent since mid-2022 Production falls for first time in six months as input price inflation spikes and supply chain stress grows Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK manufacturing output contracted for the first time in

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are extending higher today, building on yesterday’s upside momentum that followed the gap open off Friday’s cycle low into the close. The recovery rally has now pushed both indices into a key technical crossroads—testing their respective falling 100-hour moving averages. The bulls and bears are fighting at the key

Prior was 52.5 Prices paid 78.3 vs 73.0 expected (Prior was 70.5) Employment 48.7 vs 48.8 prior New orders 53.5 vs 55.8 prior This prices paid number is worrisome but not surprising. US manufacturing spent most of 2025 in contraction. The ISM PMI slipped to 47.9 in December 2025, its lowest level since October 2024

The USDCAD extended above a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937 (see post yesterday), pushing toward the next upside target zone between 1.3971 and 1.3994. The rally reached a high of 1.3966—just short of that next resistance band—before stalling and rotating back to the downside. By the close, the price had fallen back below

Trump’s latest on Truth Social: Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to

The dollar is dropping in European morning trade as we see risk trades shoot up on the session. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% with the high earlier seeing gains of 0.8% on the day. In Europe itself, major indices are posting over 2% gains in following up the positive momentum from Wall Street yesterday.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. This turned the sentiment around in the markets and the positive mood improved further

Prior was 52.4 Today’s March release showed the PMI rising to 52.3 from 51.6 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold and pointing to a moderate and accelerating pace of expansion. Both output and new orders posted solid gains, supported in part by precautionary safety stock building as firms sought to

Prior was -0.2% (revised to -0.1%) Details: Ex-autos +0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs 0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%) Control group +0.5% vs +0.3% expected Prior control +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs +3.2% prior It’s worth noting that the official Census Bureau advance

The USDCHF has turned sharply lower after failing at a key topside resistance target defined by the upper channel trendline and prior highs from January 15 near 0.8041. That rejection shifted momentum, with the pair rotating back to the downside. In the process, the price has broken back below the 200-day moving average at 0.79438,

Summary: Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar halt after KOSPI futures surged 5% Program trading paused for 5 minutes to cool rapid market moves Move follows strong upside momentum from Wall Street rally Sidecar acts as a temporary circuit breaker for derivatives-driven volatility Highlights risk of momentum-driven dislocations in fast-moving markets South Korea’s stock exchange briefly

In the earlier post and video on the USDCHF, I spoke to the battle going on between the double tops a 0.8012 and the swing area between 0.79778 and 0.7989. The price did hold support near the high of the swing area – keeping the buyers in control. In the prior post, I wrote: A

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The dollar fell off yesterday amid a marked improvement in the risk mood, with talks of US president Trump looking to wrap up the war in Iran and declaring “victory”

Prior 50.6 Key findings: Softer expansions in output and new orders Sharp spike in cost inflation fails to deter growth in purchasing and stocks Supply chains conditions decline at strongest rate since October 2022 Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The impact of war in the Middle East is being felt

Rising oil prices put upwards pressure on inflation That also weighs on growth, creating a stagflationary trend How to deal with stagflation situation is a hard question for monetary policy In general, policymakers can deal with such a situation with a mix of fiscal and monetary policy But it is hard to control the economy

It is a bit of a tricky one as one can argue that investors were feeling more optimistic about the US-Iran conflict. But at the same time, I don’t want to say it but month-end and quarter-end shenanigans might also be a factor in exacerbating the moves from overnight trading. The S&P 500 clocked in

Japan’s Tankan shows improving business sentiment, with large manufacturers at their strongest since 2021, but a softer outlook and falling profit expectations signal growing caution ahead. Summary: Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers sentiment at +17 (vs +16 expected) Marks 4th straight quarterly improvement, highest since Dec 2021 Non-manufacturers strong at +36, beating expectations Outlook softens:

Market signals from insurance, shipping flows and physical oil pricing point to ongoing disruption in Hormuz, despite conflicting narratives. Mid-April looms as a key turning point as temporary supply supports begin to expire. Summary: Headline noise rising, but real signals sit in physical markets Hormuz insurance costs surge to 3.5–10% vs ~0.25% pre-war Shipping volumes

Prior 50.8 It’s a slight upwards nudge to the initial estimate and a minor improvement in manufacturing activity compared to February. That largely thanks to Germany. That saw production and order growth hold steadier in March but there are some key issues to be concerned about. The Middle East conflict is stirring up supply-side disruption

OpenAI’s record $122 billion raise boosts its war chest, widens investor access and sharpens its IPO-era push toward enterprise AI and coding tools. Circa $852 billion valuation. Summary: OpenAI has completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, topping the already huge $110 billion financing it announced on February 27. The

4 Key market signals show deep Hormuz disruption despite mixed MSM headlines China PMI slows to 50.8 as cost pressures hit two-year high UAE push to reopen Hormuz raises prospect of U.S.-Gulf coalition. What’s next to come? PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9025, CNY strongest since 25 March UAE pushes to reopen Hormuz

Prior 50.0 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The UAE is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a major strategic shift and raising the risk of broader regional escalation as Iran warns of further retaliation. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Summary: UAE is pushing to reopen Strait of Hormuz by force, lobbying for UN-backed coalition Would

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump doubles down on rapid Iran exit timeline, signalling shift to mission-complete stance. Summary: Trump reiterates U.S. could end Iran war within 2–3 weeks, signalling accelerated exit timeline Says no deal required with Tehran for withdrawal, marking shift from negotiation-dependent framing Condition for exit: Iran’s nuclear capability must be effectively neutralised Comments reinforce earlier signals

This via Wall Street Journal info. How to turn a $4 bn company into $39 mn. Yikes. Summary: Allbirds has agreed to sell most of its business for $39 million, marking a dramatic collapse from its ~$4 billion peak valuation The deal transfers IP, assets and liabilities to American Exchange Group, subject to shareholder approval

Adding some info on the Tankan to the earlier post, via Reuters recap. Summary: Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers at +17 (vs +16 expected), continuing improvement Large non-manufacturers strong at +36 (vs +33 expected) Firms expect conditions to worsen over next three months Inflation expectations rise to record highs (2.6% 1yr, 2.5% 3–5yr) Middle East/Iran

Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the tax office will offer temporary relief to businesses impacted by the Iran war, including payment deferrals and support measures. Small businesses will gain easier access to credit, with options such as loan restructuring and emergency increases to credit limits to help manage cash flow pressures. This article was written

RatingDog / S&P Global China manufacturing PMI for March 2026. Yesterday we had the official PMIs. Summary: China manufacturing PMI at 50.8 (prev. 52.1), still in expansion for 4th straight month Growth slows but remains second-strongest in six months Output, new orders and employment all continue to rise Input price inflation jumps to highest since

Japan’s manufacturing sector remains in expansion but is losing momentum as cost pressures rise and confidence weakens, with the Middle East conflict feeding through into inflation and uncertainty. Summary: Japan manufacturing PMI eased to 51.6 (prev. 53.0), still in expansion Growth slowed but remains second-strongest since mid-2022 New orders, output and employment all expanded at

Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. Middle East-related supply disruptions and rising input costs weighed on activity, while confidence deteriorated sharply. Summary: Australian manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.8 (prev. 51.0) in March New orders declined for the first time in five months, signalling

Axios reports that Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met today in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. At the end of the meeting they published a joint peace initiative that includes a five-point plan halting the use of force and opening the Strait of Hormuz. There are strong hints the US isn’t opposed but

Gold is at the highs of the day, up $161 to $4670. The 3.5% really is the largest since Feb 5 and brings gold back to March 19 levels. The March 17-22 period saw four days of heavy selling in gold that led to a $900 decline from peak to trough. Since then it has

The EURUSD is seeing a sharp bounce higher, helped by a more supportive macro backdrop. Stocks are moving higher, yields are lower on the day, and oil has come off its highs, all of which are weighing on the USD and giving the pair a lift. From a technical perspective, the move higher has some

Sector Overview: Tech Takes the Lead The stock market is buzzing with activity today, driven by a strong performance in the technology sector. Standout performers include Microsoft (MSFT) at +1.76% and Nvidia (NVDA) soaring by an impressive 3.49%. The semiconductor industry, with AVGO at +3.35% and Intel (INTC) at +3.39%, is particularly vibrant, capturing investor

The USDJPY has rotated lower after failing above the 160.00 level, a key psychological and technical barrier. Recall, the pair broke above that level on Friday, reaching a high of 160.455, but the breakout lacked follow-through. Yesterday, the price moved lower and tested an upward sloping trendline, where buyers stepped in and pushed the pair

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard named 18 companies for retaliation after strikes against its companies: Cisco HP Intel Oracle Microsoft Apple Google Meta IBM DEL Palantir Nvidia JP Morgan Tesla GE Spire Solution G42 Boeing It’s not clear if this is a warning about striking its companies or something else but Iran warned employees and civilians within

Trump is posting about ending the war and leaving the Strait of Hormuz for those impacted by the the closure to figure it out. Trying to solve problems, by creating problems is a theme lately, but we may be entering the blame game phase now. Markets are leaning into the optimism—for now. U.S. equities are

The GBPUSD initially rode the wave of dollar selling into the U.S. session, pushing higher as broader USD weakness helped lift the pair. However, that momentum faded quickly, and buying interest dried up, leading to a reversal. The pair has since rotated back toward unchanged on the day, currently trading near 1.3180 after reaching a

Other nations can reopen the Strait Asked about reopening the Strait said “I do not think about it, to be honest” and that his sole goal was nuclear weapon More work to do in Iran war US doesn’t have to be in Iran much longer Here is the article in the New York Post. “We’re

Fed’s Williams says energy price outlook is driven by market pricing, expecting impact on headline not core inflation. He reiterates a solid economic baseline and a data-dependent stance, reinforcing no urgency for policy changes. Summary: Williams says energy outlook tied closely to market pricing expectations Expects energy shock to lift headline inflation, not core (for

Iran (President Pezeshkian – comments are unconfirmed): Says Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks Accusations against US/Israel: Calls military actions unprecedented crimes and violations of international law Claims Iran engaged in good-faith talks before being attacked Regional criticism: Says countries hosting U.S. bases failed to prevent

This reinforces a higher-for-longer bias in the near term. The Fed is signalling tolerance for energy-driven inflation spikes but remains wary of second-round effects. For markets, that keeps rate cuts uncertain and timing pushed out, particularly if oil remains elevated. USD support should persist on policy divergence, while front-end yields stay sensitive to inflation expectations

Prior 1k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% German unemployment remains unchanged in March with the jobless rate keeping steady on the month as well. The jobless figure overall remains the same as it was in February at 2.977 million. Well, this at least reaffirms the labour market has been holding up in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar remains supported across the board amid the US-Iran war and triple digit oil prices. We are having a pullback today after WSJ reported that Trump would be open to end the war without pushing for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be great news for the

Fed’s Williams speaking: Tariffs and Iran war will push headline inflation higher Gold traders are utilizing retracement and MA levels on the daily and the hourly charts Crude oil futures settles at $102.88 Israel proposes to Trump to strike Iran’s energy to accelerate regime change – report ECB’s Stournaras: ECB would react to a 2nd

The buyers in the major stock indices are stepping in after yesterday’s cycle lows and new lows for the year, sparking a relief rally. The bounce is notable, but let’s be clear—it’s still early, and there is work to do before buyers can claim meaningful control on the upside. From a technical perspective, this move

This keeps geopolitical risk premia elevated in oil. Even isolated incidents reinforce the vulnerability of Hormuz-linked shipping. Markets will watch for confirmation of attribution and whether attacks become more frequent or coordinated. Summary: UKMTO reports tanker struck by unknown projectile near Dubai Incident occurred ~31 nautical miles northwest of Dubai Fire reported onboard after impact

Prior was 91.2 prior (revised to 91.0) Details: Present situation 123.3 vs 120.0 prior Expectations 70.9 vs 72.0 prior Jobs plentiful27.3% vs 26.7% prior Jobs hard to get 21.5% vs 21.0% prior Respondents under 35 remain the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least. Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence was substantially

Prior month 6.946 million revised up to 7.240 million JOLTs job openings for February 6.882M vs 6.918M estimate Hires 4.849M vs 5.347M last month Separations 4.971M versus 5.144M last month Quits 2.974M vs 3.137M last month Layoffs and discharges 1.721M vs 1.660M last month. The JOLTs job openings fell sharply from 7.240M last month to

FX market still has not grasped full impact of energy shock – Goldman Sachs EURUSD keeps the bearish bias intact amid the US-Iran war; Focus stays on negotiations European stocks keep the calm today but set to cap one of the worst months in recent years Eurozone headline inflation picks up in March as energy

Prior -0.9%; revised to -1.1% And once again, German retail sales underwhelms on expectations and this time it is being made to look worse than previous times. For one, it comes alongside a negative revision to the January figure. But more importantly, it paints a negative backdrop in the month before we even see the

German import prices for the month of February showed a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month. But when benchmarked against the same month a year ago, import prices were seen down 2.3%. The latter figure is the same for January and also December last year. The main drag for the year-on-year decline in import

Goldman Sachs is noting that even if the US-Iran conflict were to end soon, there will be lasting impact from the surge in energy prices on markets. And that is something that perhaps currency traders have not quite fully grasped just yet. For some context, the firm is arguing that the latest jump in energy

Trump on Truth Social: All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed

US stock markets are up big today. I laid out the signs of the emerging US strategy lately and it’s something they’ve been tip-toeing towards since the war started. It’s basically a cut-and-run strategy where they blow everything up in Iran and then leave the rest of the world with the job of the hard

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 32.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is reportedly open to ending the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signalling a shift in priorities, though continued U.S. troop build-up suggests mixed messaging and ongoing risks to global energy flows. Wall Street Journal has the article, though (see below) I am wondering ifs its misdirection given the surge in US

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has entered a consolidation phase as the bearish momentum eased somewhat. The fundamentals haven’t changed at all as the US-Iran war is still ongoing and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices around triple digit levels. This should keep the bearish bias intact for now. There has been

There are a couple of important data points coming up; Tokyo CPI and China’s official PMIs. On the central bank front we have the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia March meeting. That meeting produced a back-to back rate hike (following the February hike). Tokyo CPI Tokyo inflation data is closely watched by markets

ECB’s baseline projection could be already too optimistic Interest rates will probably rise in the coming quarters if energy prices stay high for too long ECB policymaker, Madis Müller, suggests that the central bank’s current economic projections may be already too optimistic, warning that rate hikes will probably come in the coming quarters if energy

Prior was +0.2% Q4 GDP was -0.6% Goods-producing industries expanded by 0.2% for the second month in a row Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged in January 9 of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January. Canada’s economy closed out 2025 on shaky ground, and today’s January monthly GDP release arrives at a moment of

The price of gold, on the daily chart, saw a sharp correction after peaking at an all-time high at the end of January. The selloff took the price down to a low near $4,395 in early February before staging a strong rebound into the March 2 high at $5,416. However, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including

The preliminary CPI report for March sees headline annual inflation come in at 2.5%, just a touch softer than the 2.6% estimate. Still, it represents a notable bump to the 1.9% reading in February last month. The main cause for the jump is higher energy prices, as a result of the US-Iran conflict. Of note,

Prior +0.9% HICP +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +1.1% The headline estimate is the highest since August 2024 as French inflation picks up amid higher energy prices as a result of the US-Iran conflict. The monthly reading shows that consumer prices were up 0.9%, the steepest jump since February 2024. The breakdown shows that

Major US stock indices closed mostly lower with the Dow the exception. Looking at the closing levels: Dow rose 49.50 points or 0.11% have 45216.14 S&P index fell -25.13 points or -0.39% at 6343.72 NASDAQ index fell -153.72 points or -0.73% at 20794.64. Russell 2000 fell -35.68 points or -1.46% at 2414.00 Looking at the

Prior +0.1% GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Prior +1.2% No changes to the initial estimates as the UK economy squeezes out marginal growth in the final quarter of last year. In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by an increase of 1.2% in production, while the construction sector fell by 2.1%

Summary: Global equities saw largest net selling since April 2025 Marks sixth consecutive week of equity outflows Selling heavily skewed toward short positions (5.6:1 vs longs) North America and Europe led selling in dollar terms Tech, industrials and healthcare hardest hit Asia saw sharp divergence between EM and DM flows European short exposure hits 10-year

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq is finding some footing today as WSJ reported that Trump would be open to end the war without pushing for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be great news for the markets as the Iranians will likely reopen the Strait as soon as the US forces withdraw. We

The ministry confirms that three Chinese ships have recently sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, adding that “we would like to express our gratitude for the assistance provided by all parties concerned”. They didn’t go so far to name which ships they are referring to but recent reports suggest that it is likely they are

What a difference a month makes. European equities were looking poised to keep up the good momentum since the summer last year but that trajectory has completely changed now amid the US-Iran war. The developments in the Middle East has flipped the script in Europe, with surging energy prices being the main issue. European gas

Still ahead today, RBA March meeting minutes: Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, March 31, 2026: Tokyo CPI, China PMIs, RBA Summary: RBA to ban card surcharges on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa networks Changes take effect October 1, 2026; foreign card caps from April 2027 Interchange fee caps to lower costs for businesses Total

Summary: Tokyo CPI slowed to its weakest pace in four years in March Headline inflation eased to 1.4% (prev. 1.5%) Core CPI (ex-fresh food) slowed to 1.7% (exp. 1.8%) Core-core inflation (ex-food, energy) eased to 2.3% (prev. 2.5%) Government subsidies continue to suppress price pressures Underlying inflation still above 2%, but momentum cooling Inflation in

Prior +0.3% UK house prices unexpectedly rose in March, with the jump being quite a big one at that. The monthly increase in house prices is the most since December 2024. Typically, there is a bit of a “spring bounce” in the market. That being said, it could be a case of home buyers rushing

Global stocks see biggest selling in a year. Hedge funds ramp shorts (Goldman Sachs data) China factory activity hits 1-year high as PMIs return to expansion China March official PMIs: Manufacturing 50.4 (exp 50) Non-manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.9) Tokyo inflation cools further but underlying price pressures remain intact PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at

Crude oil futures settle at $102.88. That is up $3.24 or 3.25%. The close above $100 is the 1st since July 2020 and the highest close since July 11, 2011. Crude oil today is continuing to be driven by escalating geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising

Summary: Netanyahu says Israel has weakened Iran’s missile capabilities and destroyed weapons factories Claims strikes have significantly degraded Iran’s military-industrial base Messaging reinforces narrative of operational success in ongoing campaign Focus remains on dismantling missile production and supply chains Comments align with broader push to curb Iran’s long-range strike capacity Signals continued military pressure rather

This reframes gold as less reliable in acute risk-off events, particularly where USD strength dominates. Near term, gold may remain volatile and more correlated with broader risk sentiment. Longer term, central bank demand and de-dollarisation still provide structural support, but positioning matters more than macro alone. Summary: HSBC says gold’s recent price action has defied

This leans mildly hawkish-neutral. Williams is reinforcing no urgency to cut, with resilience and strong household balance sheets offsetting uncertainty. AI as a growth pillar adds to the “soft landing” narrative. Rates likely stay on hold longer, supporting USD and keeping front-end yields elevated. Summary: Williams reiterates policy is “in the right place” amid high

The NASDAQ index continues to trend lower, extending its decline with the price now down about 1% on the day at 20,737. The selling pressure remains persistent, with buyers unable to generate much of a meaningful rebound, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside. From a technical perspective, the index is now closing in

Tech stocks mixed: Microsoft climbs, semiconductors stumble 📊 Sector Overview Technology Sector: A dynamic session in technology saw Microsoft (MSFT) rise by 1.62%, showing strength in the software-infrastructure space, while the semiconductor industry struggled, with Micron (MU) down 4.38% and Intel (INTC) dropping 1.81%. Consumer Cyclical:Amazon (AMZN) rallied by 1.08%, buoying the internet retail space,

The Nasdaq index is chopping up and down during the Powell speech, reflecting indecision after last week’s sharp selloff. The low for the day reached 20891.96, briefly breaking below a key swing area between 20902.48 and 21033.05, but sellers could not generate follow-through momentum. The price has since bounced and is now trading back within

US markets will offer some pretty interesting stuff on the calendar this week. As we transition from March to April, the labour market data will come back into the picture this week. That will keep markets on edge, having already to watch for the happenings in the Middle East still. But to start things off,

We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a sustained basis There is tension between our two objectives We haven’t really seen the downside risks to a large balance sheet Policy in a good place to wait and see how current situation plays out Tariffs likely a one-time increase adding between 0.5% and

Prior +1.9% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.0% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% prior Full report here Everything as expected with limited market reaction. Destatis notes that energy prices are expected to be up 7.2% on the same month of the previous year. This is the first increase in energy prices since

The WSJ is reporting that diplomats and global leaders are floating a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for fertilizer exports using a model similar to the Ukraine grain corridor established during the Russia-Ukraine war. The idea is to create a protected humanitarian shipping route, allowing critical supplies to move safely despite ongoing tensions.

The price of crude oil pushed to its highest level since March 9, extending to an intraday high of $103.86. In doing so, the price moved above the 61.8% retracement of the sharp move down from the March 9 high to the March 10 low, which comes in at $103.16—tilting the bias more firmly in

ECBs Stournaras is on the wires saying: ECB would react to a 2nd round of price effects from oil shock she conflict in Middle East be protracted, then ECB March baseline scenario is a risk Longer or may mean baseline no longer holds and makes a stagflation more likely. Here’s a roundup of recent ECB

The USD is trading mixed to start the session. The USDJPY is backing off its highs as it approaches the 2024 peak, with Japanese officials — including the Bank of Japan — growing increasingly concerned about currency weakness. That proximity to a key technical level, combined with policy sensitivity, is helping to stall the upside

President Trump spoke with the New York Post in some comments that are hard to interpret. He seemed to indicate that the US was negotiating with Iran’s parliamentary speaker, someone who was reported dead on the weekend but has continued to tweet frequently, including about market moves. Asked about Iran Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,

Prior was +0.2 New orders +6.1 vs +11.8 prior Prices paid 32.7 vs 31.7 prior Employment -1.0 vs +7.5 prior The surging energy market is undoubtedly a boom for Texas, even with the associated inflation headwinds. However it’s going to be tough to pull the trigger on fresh drilling unless executives feel that the war

Trump on Truth Social:The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately

S&P 500 futures were up 50 points shortly before the open, but that’s faded to just +5 shortly after the open. The drop in stocks has come as oil prices have ticked back higher. WTI crude is up $2.96 to $102.56 and that’s now just 80-cents from the session high. Given the threats from Trump,

The mood is positive in US markets so far this week as Trump talks about a de-escalation. The messages are mixed though and that’s leading to some confusion. The oil market remains 1.8% higher but US stock futures are up 0.8% and Treasury yields are down 5-7 bps across the curve. Trump tweeted about negotiations,

USD/JPY began a fall earlier today after Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warned authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. It was the strongest intervention signal yet and led to a quick drop from 160.40 to below the big figure. That decline has continued and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is now

The USD is pushing to new session highs against the EUR, GBP, CHF, and AUD in late-day trading, showing renewed demand even as US yields move lower. The 2-year yield is down -7.4 basis points to 3.840%, while the 10-year is off -8.6 basis points at 4.354%. That divergence—stronger dollar alongside falling yields—suggests flows and

No direct talks with the US took place, only messages via intermediaries Proposals conveyed to Iran have mostly been ‘unrealistic, unreasonable and excessive’ Tehran is dismissing reports of direct negotiations with Washington, clarifying that recent diplomatic exchanges have been limited to messages conveyed through third-party intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, emphasized that these

The study notes that the costs of tariffs enacted by the Trump administration are “falling mostly on domestic importers and consumers”. In putting a number to that, the study reveals that US consumers are bearing around a third of the tariff burden currently. And if the tariffs are going to stay for longer, that cost

Diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war are underway but remain fragmented and uncertain, with the U.S. pursuing a dual-track approach of negotiations and military pressure. Iran has rejected proposed terms, regional players are divided, and troop build-ups suggest escalation risks remain high. Summary: The U.S. has floated a potential multi-point framework to end the

Euro area economic confidence slipped to 96.6 in March, after recording a revised 98.2 reading in February. That’s the lowest estimate since September with consumer confidence (-16.3) also falling back on the month to its lowest since the latter months of 2023. It’s all coming undone as the US-Iran war stirs up inflation fears in

Global leader in the online trading and financial services sector, XM has been awarded the Best Gold Broker and Best Customer Service for2026 by Capital Finance International (CFI.co). This recognition stands as a formal validation of its established institutional strength, operational resilience, and the service standards it has maintained for over 15 years. It also

According to BofA’s month-end fixing model, the dollar is the one favoured as we look to wrap up March and Q1 trading in the coming days. This fits with what was pointed out by both Credit Agricole and Barclays earlier here. Of note, BofA says that: “Our estimates suggest the potential for (1) material inflows

The RBI’s after-hours announcement of FX position caps is being viewed as a form of indirect intervention to support the rupee. While the policy forces short covering and limits speculative pressure, banks warn that rapid implementation could trigger disorderly unwinds and near-term volatility. Summary: The Reserve Bank of India announced new FX position caps after

The USDCAD is pushing higher again today, extending the trend-like rally that began last Monday—and doing so with solid technical backing. Last week’s turning point came when the pair found support near the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, bottoming at 1.3669 (just above the MA at 1.3662). From there, the buyers took control.

Headlines: Iran’s FM spokesperson: US proposals have mostly been ‘unrealistic and excessive’ USDJPY falls below the key 160.00 handle amid intensifying verbal intervention Month-end flows point to dollar buying into the fix – BofA Dollar buying looks to be the flavour this month-end BOJ reaffirms that underlying inflation is rising moderately towards 2% level Bavaria

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 broke through a key support on Friday and extended the losses into new lows as traders hedged into the weekend risk. Those hedges are being unwound today given that nothing happened over the weekend. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed

The other state releases around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +% vs +2.0% y/y prior Hesse CPI +% vs +2.2% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.6% vs +1.9% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia +2.7% vs +1.8% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.5% vs +1.8% y/y prior The readings point to higher headline annual inflation in March

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board heading into the weekend as traders hedged on risks of a potential ground invasion. This morning, we are seeing some weakness as those hedges get unwound. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed that negotiations may

It is that time of the month again and the weekend break sort of splits the momentum in closing out March trading this time around. It leaves the last two days of the month to work with, before we transition to April in the middle of the week. That’s not quite a clean look and

Australian Prime Minister Albanese has announced that the National Cabinet meeting today adopted a National Fuel Security Plan. Among the measures: Government will halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel for three months Will reduce the heavy vehicle road user charge to zero for three months I am probably going to be the most

Brent up around $2.70 to circa 115.30 a barrel US crude up around $2.35 to circa $102 a bbl US equity index futures had a very weak close on Friday, are lower to open the week. Weekend: Yemen attacks Israel again with missiles Pakistan says it will host US-Iran talks Where the warmakers are at:

Summary: Donald Trump claims major military success in Iran, but provides no verifiable detail on targets or impact. Bill Ackman frames the war as one-sided and bullish for equities, urging investors to “buy quality.” Both messages lean heavily on confidence and narrative, not confirmed data. History suggests early war claims are often overstated or incomplete.

The Friday plummet in ‘risk’ is extending in early Asia trade. The higher USD (a little higher) was noticeable earlier and that’s carrying on. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BoJ Summary of Opinions points to a continued tightening bias, with policymakers open to further rate hikes if conditions allow. However, Middle East risks and rising oil prices are prompting caution, with stagflation concerns emerging. Summary: Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions shows a clear tightening bias, conditional on data. Some members support continued

Japan has signalled a higher likelihood of FX intervention, with Mimura’s use of “decisive” marking a clear escalation in rhetoric. Combined with Ueda’s earlier comments, authorities are showing increasing sensitivity to yen weakness. Summary: Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warns authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. Language seen as the

Morgan Stanley sees Australia as highly exposed to a global diesel supply shock, with low inventories raising the risk of shortages rather than just higher prices. The impact is expected to hit key industries, drive earnings volatility, and potentially disrupt export flows if shortages persist. Summary: Morgan Stanley flags Australia at the front line of

I am looking at Etherum via the Ether futures chart looks like a market that is trying to stabilize and mean-revert after a very volatile March. In plain English, ETH had a strong upside push, failed to hold the higher prices, and is now rotating back toward the area where the market has done the

Israel may invite U.S. to relocate Middle East bases after war Trump touts destruction in Iran, Ackman looks forward to a whopping victory dividend Australia to cut taxes on petrol and diesel use as part of National ‘Fuel Security’ plan Reserve Bank of India FX intervention move after hours on Friday. INR chaos day ahead?

BdF’s Villeroy says ECB ready to act, but too early to discuss timing of any rate hike European Central Bank’s François Villeroy says policymakers are ready to act if energy-driven inflation broadens. Emphasises it is too early to discuss timing of any rate hike despite rising market expectations. Iran war-driven energy shock is seen as

I posted the news from the FT here: Trump says US could take the oil in Iran (via Financial Times) In summary: U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a mix of escalation risk and cautious optimism on diplomacy in comments reported by the Financial Times. He suggested the United States could seize Iranian oil assets, including

BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the growing impact of FX on inflation and policy, reinforcing that currency moves are now a key input into decision-making. While not verbal intervention, the comments supported the yen by signalling increased sensitivity to FX-driven inflation. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted FX as a key driver of inflation

China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading

Bond giants see growth shock ahead as markets fixate on inflation Summary: Major bond managers warn markets are underestimating growth risks from the U.S.–Iran war, according to Bloomberg. Oil above $110 has driven a Treasury selloff, with yields surging on inflation fears. Investors expect the Fed to stay tight or even hike, pushing bonds toward

Israel intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, following Houthi missile attacks over the weekend. The developments mark the group’s entry into the conflict and highlight the growing regional spread of hostilities, with implications for security and shipping. Summary: Israel’s military says it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, marking continued spillover from the widening regional

Trump said U.S.-Iran talks are progressing well and could deliver a deal soon, while noting uncertainty remains. He also flagged the potential reopening of limited oil flows through Hormuz, signalling tentative de-escalation. Summary: Donald Trump says the U.S. is negotiating with Iran both directly and indirectly. Claims progress is strong, stating talks are “doing extremely

Via Reuters: Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’ – FT Trump says US could seize the export hub of Kharg Island – FT Trump says number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers Iran had permitted through the Strait of Hormuz had now been doubled to 20 – FT “To be honest with you, my

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. The USD is a little stronger in very early trade. I’ll be back soon with weekend news. This article was written by