It’s a brand new week but the main focus in markets stay on the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict drags on further and the latest development is that US president Trump delivered a warning over the weekend for Iran to “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz. Trump gave a 48-hour ultimatum, which will run its course […]

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for the day, with the full list seen below. There is a large-ish one for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 mark but it likely won’t factor much into play. That as the broader market sentiment right now is more focused on inflation fears as the Middle East

Goldman Sachs raises oil forecasts as extended Hormuz disruption and structural supply risks lift long-term price expectations. Summary: Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on prolonged Hormuz disruption Bank now assumes flows operate at ~5% capacity for six weeks Recovery expected to take an additional month thereafter Structural risks seen driving higher long-term oil prices

IEA warns crisis worse than 1970s shocks as Hormuz disruption drives global energy strain. Summary: IEA warns Middle East crisis is “severe” and escalating Birol says situation worse than both 1970s oil crises combined Reopening Strait of Hormuz seen as the single biggest solution IEA consulting governments on potential further strategic oil releases No fixed

Summary: Saudi Aramco cuts April crude supply to Asian buyers Supplies constrained due to Hormuz disruption from Iran conflict Buyers told to lift only Arab Light crude from Yanbu terminal Shift reflects reliance on Red Sea export route via East-West pipeline Limited pipeline and terminal capacity forcing supply rationing Heavier crude grades likely harder to

Fitch outlook cut puts New Zealand’s fiscal path under scrutiny and lifts yields. Summary: Fitch revises New Zealand outlook to Negative, affirms AA+ rating Concerns centre on delayed fiscal consolidation and rising debt Government debt projected to peak around 56% of GDP by FY27 Timeline for return to surplus pushed out to FY30 Economic recovery

Japan ramps up FX warnings as oil-driven volatility pressures the yen, with authorities signalling readiness to intervene while also deploying fiscal support to offset rising energy costs. Summary: Japan signals readiness to act against FX volatility Top currency diplomat Mimura flags impact of oil-driven speculation on FX Comments reinforce concern over rapid yen moves amid

Summary: Gold is under pressure from a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields Markets are repricing for fewer rate cuts and possible renewed tightening Oil shock is lifting inflation fears, which is pushing real-rate expectations higher Safe-haven demand is rotating partly into the US dollar rather than gold Profit-taking is also likely after gold’s

The USD is a little higher in early indications. Pretty soon wholesale market participants will be getting active and machines will be switched on. Until then, like I said above, its thin and scatty. Take care. I’ll be back with weekend baloney news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump says reopening Hormuz “a simple military manoeuver” with “so little risk” US made detailed preparations for potential ground troops in Iran – report US assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six months Iran unwilling to discuss Hormuz while under attack – report Canada January retail sales +1.1% vs +1.5%

As we head into the close, the major US stock indices are pressing to new lows for the day and the week, with downside momentum building. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1.5%, while the NASDAQ has extended losses to around -2.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure. This week marks an important technical shift, as both

The declines in the major indices were symmetrically worse going from the Dow, to the S&P to the Nasdaq. Rounding, the Dow fell -1.00%, the S&P fell -1.50%, and the Nasdaq fell by -2.00%. All three indices also closed below its 200 day MA this week. The Dow 200 day MA is at 46562. The

At a certain point, the Strait will open itself I think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to end I don’t want to do a ceasefire We can have dialogue but I don’t want to do a ceasefire On Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan

The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it

Here is the latest from Trump: We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS report. The report says Trump is deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region. “No, I’m not putting troops anywhere,” Trump said yesterday but quickly added: “If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.” I wonder why

The USD 10 year yield is trading up to 4.407%. That is the highest level going back to August 1, 2025.. The yield is up over 10 basis points this week. Yields are up around 45 basis points since low of 3.926% on March 2. The move higher has the US dollar moving to the

The USD is pushing higher to kick off the Friday session. Stocks are trading lower, yields remain stubbornly elevated with the 10-year hovering near 4.30%, and oil prices are choppy but modestly lower. In today’s video, I break down the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective—highlighting the bias, key risks, and the levels

Prior was +2.7% (revised to +2.8%) PPI y/y +5.4% vs +5.4% prior Raw materials price index +0.6% m/m vs +7.7% prior Raw materials price index +8.6% y/y vs +8.0% prior Normally, the Bank of Canada would give a lower reading like this some attention but with energy prices spiking, that won’t be the case this

Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences. The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back. The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything

Headlines: Dollar recoups some losses on the day, eyes stay on the Middle East ahead of the weekend US stocks with their backs against the wall in the final stretch of the week Trump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz EU leaders make the rare choice of appointing

U.S. accelerates Middle East troop deployment amid rising Iran tensions. Summary: U.S. accelerating deployment of Marines and naval assets to Middle East Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and 11th MEU deploying ahead of schedule Around 4,000 personnel aboard initial three-ship group Potential expansion to six ships and ~8,000 total service members USS Tripoli already en route;

If oil stays high for months on and at some point it leads into core inflation. A high and persistent oil shock would not have a transitory impact on inflation. Based on the jobs report was planning to dissent, but since then inflation has become more of a concern Zero job growth does not seem

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz: Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay,

Prior was -0.4% Ex autos +0.8% vs +1.2% expected Prior ex autos +0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Advance February sales +0.9% Sales hit $70.7 billion in January Sales ex autos and gas +0.9% The advance reading tends to be the better signal in this report and the number for February is strong. As for January, vehicles

Today’s stock market heatmap paints a vivid picture of a market grappling with varied performance across different sectors. Let’s delve into the dynamics shaping the trading landscape today. 📉 Technology Sector Faces Headwinds The technology sector is currently under significant pressure, marked by notable declines. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.91%, while Oracle (ORCL) has taken

Why is it always the meme stocks where they find the fraud? Supermicro shares are getting absolutely destroyed on Friday, down 27% and hitting fresh 52-week lows after federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging three company associates — including co-founder Wally Liaw — with smuggling $2.5 billion in Nvidia-powered AI servers to China. The stock

The CHF weakened initially (USDCHF moved higher) after the SNB signaled a willingness to intervene following its decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. The pair extended to a high of 0.7957, stalling just ahead of a downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart. However, the upside momentum could not be sustained. Broad-based USD selling during

Gold drops on higher-for-longer repricing; technical bounce seen as corrective. Summary: Gold fell as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher and lifted inflation fears Higher-for-longer rate expectations drove yields and the US dollar up Rising real yields pressured gold despite geopolitical risks Profit-taking amplified the move after a strong prior rally Hourly charts show tentative

One of the ideas that’s been floating around markets is that Trump just wanted to dramatically degrade Iran’s military, it’s nuclear program and its ability to make missiles. Once that was done, he would declare victory and leave it to Europe and gulf states on how to open the Strait of Hormuz. It was never

Goldman Sachs warns oil prices may surge further on prolonged supply risks. Summary: Goldman Sachs sees upside risks to oil prices near term and into 2027 Brent settles at $108.65 after volatile session, earlier above $119 Iran conflict disrupting energy supply and Hormuz shipping routes Bank warns Brent could exceed 2008 all-time high if disruptions

HFM, a leading online trading platform, today announces a new multi-year partnership with Arsenal, becoming an Official Global Partner of the club. The agreement brings together two international brands defined by performance and ambition, united by a shared commitment to long-term success. As HFM continues to expand its global presence, the partnership provides a platform

Nagel said that the central bank will have to consider a rate hike as early as next month, that is if price pressures continue to ramp up further amid the Middle East conflict. Adding that: “As things currently stand, it is conceivable that the medium-term inflation outlook could deteriorate and inflation expectations could rise on

Summary: HSBC stays constructive on markets despite geopolitical volatility. Summary: HSBC Private Bank remains constructive on six-month investment outlook Global growth expected to be led by U.S. and Asia Markets shaped by AI, fiscal concerns and Middle East conflict Bank maintains overweight stance on global equities U.S. seen as resilient despite investor diversification trends Asia

Summary: Powell to deliver brief remarks at award event on Saturday at 1430 GMT/1030 US Eastern time Appearance tied to American Society for Public Administration conference Remarks expected to be non-policy and pre-prepared No press conference or Q&A scheduled Follows Fed decision to hold rates steady this week Powell emphasised need for further inflation progress

Morgan Stanley delays Fed cuts as oil and inflation risks complicate outlook. Summary: Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September and December Previous forecast was June and September easing Fed seen as more cautious following latest policy meeting Powell signals need for clearer progress on inflation Rising oil prices complicating disinflation process Geopolitical

Strong growth will be supported by government’s supply side policies Hearing AI will augment workers, not replace them I am still concerned about the jobs market I always like to highlight the word ‘still’ in central bank speak because it’s almost always a tell that they’re losing faith in a position. Bowman has been a

The bandwagon is starting to grow, with the two latest calls adding to the one from JP Morgan earlier here. And much like JP Morgan, both Barclays and Morgan Stanley had previously forecast no rate changes by the ECB for the year. And amid the latest developments in the Middle East and higher energy prices,

Saudi warns oil could hit $180, supply shock raises recession risks. Summary: Saudi officials see oil potentially reaching $180 if disruptions persist Iran conflict has removed millions of barrels from global supply Oil prices up around 50% since late February Brent recently surged above $119 amid infrastructure attacks Strait of Hormuz disruptions central to supply

Israel’s prime minister is set to hold his first press conference in more than a week at 1830 GMT (2:30 pm ET). There are various reports about a rift between the US and Israel and Trump did not appear to be happy about the attacks (and counter-attacks) on energy infrastructure. Just now a report from

The People’s Bank of China rate setting is a non-event. China’s main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses these open market operations to inject or

German producer prices -0.5% vs +0.3% m/m expected Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.1% This will arguably be the last report before it all changes up due to the Middle East conflict. As such, I wouldn’t look much into this as the data is rather dated at this point in time. The main drag for the

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some holding relatively close by for EUR/USD and AUD/USD at the 1.1500 and 0.7050 levels respectively. However, they aren’t likely to feature much into play. As things stand, dollar sentiment remains the key driver of

JPMorgan cuts S&P 500 target as oil shock raises recession risk. Summary: JPMorgan cuts S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 7,500 Oil surge driven by Iran conflict raises recession risks Bank warns markets underestimating hit to consumer demand Oil shocks above 30% historically linked to recessions S&P 500 breaks below 200-day moving average Further downside

Comments from Israel PM Netanyahu are helping to reverse the trends in oil and stocks and ease some of the wall of worry. Netanyahu is making amends for the bombing of South Pars field yesterday. In retaliation, Iran targeted Qatar’s energy infrastructure—specifically the Ras Laffan Industrial City, which is one of the world’s largest liquefied

Trump: He thought impact of Iran would be worse, will be over with soon Netanyahu: Won’t put a stopwatch, but it will end much sooner than people think BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in March meeting decision ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected US initial jobless claims 205K versus 215K estimate US new-home

The drop in Wall Street yesterday could’ve been so much worse. A late-day rally helped to salvage something towards the end but is it enough to stop the bleeding this week? The only comfort is that some reassurances from US president Trump on the war at least helped to prop up sentiment a little. But

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Comments from Netanyahu: Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles following 20 days of war Iran has few ballistic missiles left It’s too soon to tell if Iranians will take to the streets Will attack Iran’s leaders I pledged to change the Middle East, and we have done so, and Israel

Qatar LNG supply hit by Iranian strikes, tightening global energy markets. Summary: Iranian strikes hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, cutting export capacity ~17% Damage to ExxonMobil-linked LNG trains drives ~$20B annual revenue loss Force majeure likely on long-term contracts affecting Asia and Europe Shell-operated Pearl GTL facility partially offline for at least a year

It took a while for it to really strike deep, but the seeds were already planted in the first week of the Middle East conflict. And now with Iran also trying to disrupt things on a broader scale, we are seeing inflation fears sweep across markets this week. Higher oil prices are the main issue

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 20.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations Earlier the PBOC left Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for a 10th consecutive month at 3.5% for 5 year and 3% for 1 year.

Croatian central bank governor, Boris Vujčić, is the name confirmed to be appointed as the next ECB vice president. He will be presiding over a non-negotiable 8-year term, taking over from Spain’s Luis de Guindos starting 1 June. There’s no drama or controversy with this one as de Guindos is ending his own 8-year term

Goldman Sachs expect Bank of England on hold for the rest of 2026 Powell to speak Saturday after Fed held rates. This is not a policy related speech. Tesla plans major solar expansion with Chinese equipment suppliers, eyes $2.9B deal Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September, December (from June, September) PBOC sets

After a rally that saw both the S&P index and the NASDAQ index earlier declines, selling returned and the prices of the major indices are closing lower on the day. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq index are closing below its 200 day MAs for the first time since May 2025. That is the bad

Goldman Sachs Expects BoE to remain on hold throughout 2026 vs prior forecast of quarterly cuts from July Expect that the MPC will gradually lower bank rate in 2027 to a terminal rate of 3% (Reuters headlines) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand February trade data: balance -NZ$257M vs -NZ$740M expected (prev. -NZ$519M) imports NZ$6.89B vs NZ$6.20B expected (prev. NZ$6.73B) exports NZ$6.63B vs NZ$6.60B expected (prev. NZ$6.21B) Statistics New Zealand reported the annual trade deficit stood at NZ$3B. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tesla looks to China for solar buildout despite U.S. supply chain push. Summary Tesla in talks to buy $2.9B of solar manufacturing equipment from China Aims to build 100 GW of U.S. solar production capacity by 2028 Suzhou Maxwell among leading suppliers; others also in discussions Some equipment requires Chinese export approval Highlights reliance on

WTO cuts trade and growth outlook as Middle East conflict lifts energy risks. Summary: WTO cuts global trade and growth forecasts due to Middle East conflict Goods trade growth seen at 1.4% vs 1.9% previously Global GDP forecast lowered to 2.5% from 2.8% Energy disruptions via Strait of Hormuz driving outlook downgrade Higher oil and

EU urges halt to energy strikes as Middle East tensions threaten supply. Summary: EU leaders call for moratorium on strikes targeting energy and water facilities Move aimed at de-escalation amid Iran conflict and rising global risks Leaders stress protection of civilian infrastructure and international law Concerns growing over impact on global energy supply and economy

RBNZ to expand communication, adding briefings after every policy decision. Summary: RBNZ to introduce post-decision media briefings from April April 8 meeting will be first under new format Governor Anna Breman to speak after every policy review Previously, press conferences only followed quarterly MPS meetings Interim reviews previously limited to written statements only New format

If you’re looking to trade up-and-down volatility, the AUDUSD has been a prime candidate. Going back to early February, the pair has been characterized by sharp, two-way price action, with rallies quickly reversing into selloffs—and vice versa. There have been brief periods where the market trends in one direction, but those moves have struggled to

What’s the diagnosis of Dr. Copper? It’s not a good one at the moment as the industrial metal sinks today. The price action in copper and other assets today suggests a shift away from an inflationary price shock and towards the risk of central banks raising rates and causing a global recession, or at least

The price of gold has pulled back sharply from its record highs, correcting meaningfully after an extended run to the upside. Since peaking near $5,416 at the end of February, the metal has declined roughly 16.5%, marking a notable shift in momentum after a powerful rally throughout 2025 and into early 2026. What makes the

Prior month 0.2% wholesale inventories -0.5% versus 0.2% expected. Wholesale sales 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised higher to 1.3% from 1.0% previously reported This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 futures have extended declines to 0.8% in a broad selloff in global markets, including precious metals and fixed income. It’s a ‘sell everything’ day as the market senses central banks running out of patience with inflation and high oil prices. This isn’t a great look but you can see the support down at

The EURUSD pushed higher following the rate decision and Lagarde’s press conference, but the upside momentum has remained contained, suggesting buyers are still cautious at higher levels. From a fundamental perspective, Lagarde reinforced that inflation remains the primary concern, with risks tilted to the upside—largely driven by energy prices, while growth risks are shifting to

The pace of inflation rise is expected to see upward pressure from higher oil prices Global markets are volatile with oil prices jumping significantly Risk factors now include Middle East conflict, oil prices, financial and also FX market developments Need to pay attention to those risks and how they affect Japan’s economy, prices Will continue

The euro is up 75 pips to 1.1525 today in a big rebound and a spike from earlier. The market may be sensing a big TACO trade as the war looks like something Trump doesn’t really want, especially with energy as the stakes. Headlines from Lagarde: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside The pop

I’m on board with the reversal in markets today. I think there is something of a news overload that the market is dealing with. Obviously, there were parts of the market that didn’t like what Powell said yesterday but it shouldn’t have been a surprise. If anything, the dots should matter and they still show

The USD is mixed but modestly lower against the major pairs, with gains in EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, while the greenback is firmer vs CHF and flat vs CAD. It is also softer against AUD and NZD, even as US equity futures point lower. US yields are pushing higher, with the 10-year at 4.29% (near

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Summary: Bank of England expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% Middle East conflict-driven energy shock complicates outlook Inflation risks rising again, potentially above 3% Markets shift from rate cuts to pricing possible hikes UK economy remains fragile with elevated unemployment BoE likely to deliver cautious, non-committal guidance Focus turns to timing of next move

The USDJPY is trading lower and is now pressing into a critical technical zone, where the 200-hour moving average and a rising channel trendline converge near 158.88. This area is shaping up to be a key short-term barometer for both buyers and sellers, with price action here likely to dictate the next directional move. The

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come PBOC injects 13bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia February jobs beat expectations but unemployment rises to 4.3% Summary: Employment rises strongly: +48.9K vs +20.3K expected Unemployment rate jumps to 4.3% vs 4.1% expected Participation lifts to 66.9%, driving labour supply higher Part-time jobs surge (+79.4K), while full-time falls (-30.5K) Third straight upside surprise in headline jobs growth Report signals labour market loosening

Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 9-0 vs 7-2 expected Conflict in the Middle East has caused a significant increase in global energy and other commodity prices, which will affect households’ fuel and utility prices and have indirect effects via businesses’ costs CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the

Yesterday, Iran struck Qatar’s crown jewels — it’s massive LNG and refining complex called Ras Laffan. Reuters spoke with the QatarEnergy CEO: For production to restart, first we need hostilities to cease These facilities, which cost about $26 billion to build many years ago, should not be attacked The annual revenue lost from the three

European Central Bank preview via Reuters, in breif: Summary: ECB widely expected to hold rates at 2% amid heightened uncertainty Iran war-driven energy shock revives upside inflation risks Markets pricing potential hikes despite economist consensus for hold Lagarde likely to emphasise vigilance and optionality 2022 energy crisis still shaping policy sensitivity Scenario analysis to guide

ECB President Christine Lagarde earlier highlighted ECB March staff projections and the baseline showed growth revised down to 0.9% for 2026, headline inflation revised up to 2.6% on the back of the energy shock. But the baseline isn’t where the most important information lies. The alternative scenarios were just released and offer some insight on

I’ll have details and analysis posted separately. Mixed report this one, big number of jobs added, unemployment rate jumps, more job seekers in the market, full time jobs collapse. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview The stock market is experiencing a diversified landscape today, with distinct sector dynamics influencing overall performance. The technology sector is seeing significant declines, primarily led by the semiconductor industry. NVIDIA (NVDA) has dropped by 1.52% and Micron Technology (MU) by a notable 2.77%, reflecting ongoing concerns or developments specific to chipmakers. This downturn

Well, US president Trump continued to say that the war is very much following a timely schedule. And that this will all be over in a matter of “weeks”. Yet, the escalation in the conflict this week suggests that we’re still not really seeing things wind down. That especially as Iran continues to have the

Prior week 213K Initial jobs claims 205K vs 215K estimate 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 210.75K versus 211.50K last week. Continuing claims 1.857M vs 1.850M estimate. Prior week 1.850M 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.850M versus 1.852M last week The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March

The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.00% and retire the “good place” language amid the US-Iran war and the energy price shock. The central bank is expected to use a more hawkish tone to keep inflation expectations in check. The “meeting-by-meeting” and “data-dependent” approach will likely be maintained but

Main refi rate unchanged at 2.15% Deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% War poses upside risks to inflation, downside risks to growth Determined to ensure inflation reaches target Implications for medium-term inflation depend crucially on the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects The market is now pricing in 64 bps in rate hikes this year for

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower after Fed chair Powell was a bit more hawkish than the markets like. Yields moved higher with the 10 year yield back above 4.25%. U.S. stocks closed broadly lower , with all four major indices falling between 1.4% and 1.6% following the FOMC’s decision to hold

Before the Middle East conflict, underlying data showed that we are “on track” All things being equal, surging oil prices can push up inflation and curb economic output A rate hike is still possible if economic downturn proves to be temporary, doesn’t affect underlying inflation We held rates steady this month since we put emphasis

Preliminary data shows wage momentum at small, medium-sized firms could be better than past years Will still turn to Rengo’s first round survey There is no gap in understanding on inflation between government and BOJ The headline remark is modestly hawkish and if not for the US-Iran conflict, it could easily be used to tee

Prior month 0.745 million revised to 0.712M New Home sales for the month of January 0.587M vs 0.720M estimate. Further details from the report shows: Inventory (Jan 2026): 476K homes (+0.4% m/m, -4.0% y/y) Months’ supply: 9.7 months (up from 8.0 prior, +21.3% m/m, +7.8% y/y) Median price: $400.5K (-4.5% m/m, -6.8% y/y) Average price:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariff investigations will wrap up just in time for the 150 day deadline in the current tariff regime, which could also be ruled illegal (though that would be retroactive). Normally, this kind of investigation takes 12-18 months but despite a much larger scope of countries, this version will be

The NASDAQ index closed below its 200-day moving average for the second time in the last four trading days, reinforcing a growing bearish tilt in the broader market. Recall that on Friday, the index dipped below that key level into the weekly close but managed to rebound early in the new week. However, yesterday’s -1.46%

The Bank of England is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote split. The central bank is likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach amid the US-Iran war and the energy price shock, but maintain an easing bias. The extent and timing for further rate cuts will likely

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 11 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 58 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 56 bps (92% probability of no change at today’s decision) RBA: 55 bps (55% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)

Prior 0.00% Our willingness to intervene in the FX market has increased due to the Middle East crisis SNB to counter rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which could jeopardise price stability Economic outlook for Switzerland for the coming months is uncertain Main risk to the Swiss economy is the development of the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold plunged yesterday after breaking out of its recent consolidation range. The move gained momentum following news of an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field. In the days leading up to this, Iran had warned it would respond if its energy infrastructure were targeted. The attack marked a clear escalation for

Prior was +16.3 Details: New orders 8.6 vs 11.7 prior Shipments 22.2 vs 0.3 prior Unfilled orders -4.7 vs -12.9 prior Delivery times 18.9 vs -9.9 prior Inventories 1.4 vs -0.2 prior Prices paid 44.7 vs 38.9 prior Prices received 21.2 vs 16.7 prior Number of employees 0.8 vs -1.3 prior Average employee workweek 2.8

It’s the worst day in the precious metals market since the January 29 rout. Gold is down 5.8%, or $282, to $4537 while silver is down 11% to $66.82. The trigger for the selling was the Federal Reserve decision yesterday and a subsequent repricing of the Treasury curve and expectations of other central banks. The

Headlines: The hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations continues as US-Iran war escalates Gold plunges to new lows as US-Iran war escalates and the Fed considers a rate hike Silver drops by over 5% and the chart shows that there might be more trouble up ahead A quick rundown of how Iran has hit back

The Bank of Japan held its short-term policy rate at 0.75%, as widely expected more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As such, our willingness to intervene has increased The upward pressure on the franc has increased once again The franc is sought after as a safe haven in times of uncertainty It is 2.5% stronger on a trade-weighted basis since the middle of December We are ready to counter a rapid and excessive rise of

The USD is tilting to the upside as the Chair Powell testimony progresses. What has that done to the technicals for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD? I outline the changes and key levels in play. I also take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P indices as they react. In other markets, yields

US major indices closed sharply lower with the Dow and Russell 2000 falling -1.6% Qatar says Ras Laffan Industrial City has sustained “extensive damage” The USD is moving higher as the Fed chair testimony continues Fed’s Powell: Consumer spending has been resilient and business investment has expanded Oil gains fade as Iran’s gas company says

Will continue to communicate closely with the government Need to pay attention to possibility that higher oil prices could affect inflation more than in 2021-22 Cannot say how long it would take to judge whether energy supply shocks affect underlying prices No comment on how Middle East conflict is affecting forex levels But carefully watching

Prior 5.2% Employment change k vs -4k expected Prior 52k Average weekly earnings +% vs +3.9% 3m/y expected Prior +4.2% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +% vs +4.0% 3m/y expected Prior +4.2% February payrolls change k Prior -11k More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

How the mighty have fallen. Silver was the talk of the town as it surged by roughly 60% in January trading, hitting highs of just above $120. That is a far cry from where we are trading now, with the precious metal suffering another 5% drop today and poised for six straight daily losses in

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. It’s not one that ties much to any technical significance but could still help to keep a lid on any upside extension in price action for the session ahead. That

Summary: Japan flags speculative FX moves driving yen volatility Finance Minister Katayama signals readiness to intervene Authorities monitoring markets with “extremely high vigilance” Government reiterates BOJ independence despite geopolitical tensions Kihara stresses inflation should be wage-driven, not cost-push Comments come amid heightened global volatility and weaker yen Reinforces intervention risk without signalling policy shift Japanese

UKMTO reports a vessel hit by an unknown projectile 11NM off Khawr Fakkan, UAE, causing a fire onboard. The incident underscores rising risks to Gulf shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz. Summary: Vessel struck by unknown projectile off UAE coast near Khawr Fakkan Incident occurred around 11 nautical miles east of port Fire reported

RBA warns the Middle East conflict could trigger a severe global shock, with risks of disorderly asset repricing, higher inflation from oil, and rising sovereign debt stress, even as Australia’s financial system remains resilient. Summary: RBA warns Middle East conflict could trigger severe global shock Highlights risk of disorderly repricing across assets and sovereign debt

Summary: Trump says U.S. had no prior knowledge of Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars field Claims Israel will halt further attacks on the critical gas asset Issues stark warning: U.S. could destroy South Pars if Qatar is attacked Seeks to de-escalate while signalling extreme retaliation risk Contradictory reports suggest U.S. may have known or

Info via Reuters, in brief: Summary: U.S. weighing deployment of thousands of troops to Middle East Options include securing Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes Potential ground deployment to Iran’s Kharg Island under discussion Signals possible shift toward direct military involvement Raises risks of escalation across energy infrastructure and trade routes Markets alert to implications for

The USDJPY is ticking up to new highs as yields move higher after the FOMC rate decision and comments Overall, Powell leaned mildly hawkish — not aggressively so, but the weight of his comments tilted that way. The key tells: The hawkish core was his refusal to commit to cuts without inflation progress, the dot

Preview – Bank of England to hold rates as Middle East conflict lifts inflation risks The Bank of Japan held its short-term policy rate at 0.75%, as widely expected Trump warns of massive retaliation tied to South Pars as energy risks escalate Australia jobs surge masks softening as RBA tightening path stays intact PBOC sets

Wall Street Journal: Trump wants no more strikes on Iranian energy sites after Israel’s Wednesday attack on a vital Iranian gas field But Trump could once again be open to targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Tehran’ future actions in strategic waterway The other part of this nonsense is that Trump has very little

S&P warns energy shock from Middle East conflict could hit global growth Summary: S&P flags Middle East conflict as key macro risk to global growth Disruption to oil production and Hormuz flows seen as major downside Energy shock expected to weaken growth and fiscal dynamics in 2026 Base case assumes conflict is temporary, limiting long-term

Housing sector activity has been weak Labor demand has clearly softened Other labor indicators have been little changed Elevated inflation expectations in near term have risen Elevated inflation largely reflects goods, which have been boosted by tariffs Long term inflation expectations consistent with 2% inflation goal Implications of Middle East are uncertain Too soon to

KAN reports that Israel flags U.S. military buildup toward possible Hormuz intervention Summary: Israel sees signs of a U.S. military buildup near the Strait of Hormuz U.S. warship Tripoli reportedly en route as part of preparations Operation aimed at breaking Iran’s blockade of key oil shipping route Campaign could last several weeks depending on Iranian

Its a busy data agenda to follow a very eventful session in the US timezone. Hawkish Fed, escalation in the Middle East taking a toll on risk sentiment. The screen snapshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’

The image shown here was from video (or at least purported video) of the Pars gas processing station in Iran, or something nearby. It’s clearly in flames but earlier there were reports that the fire was brought under control. Now, the Iranian Gas Company is out with an advisory saying the situation is expected to

Qatari Interior Ministry: The security threat level is high, and everyone must adhere to staying in homes and safe places Foreign ministry: Iran targeting it is “irresponsible approach” Ras Laffan attack is “direct threat” to its national security There are videos now showing two strikes on Ras Laffan. There are two fires but keep in

This is from Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence at hearings today: “The IC assesses the regime in Iran appears to be intact, but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership and military capabilities. Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options… Even if the regime remains intact, the

Sector Overview The current stock market heatmap reflects a mixed bag of performance across sectors today. Technology is experiencing notable declines, with giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) down by 1.11% and 1.44% respectively. Apple (AAPL) also sees a drop of 0.74%, pointing towards overall investor hesitation in the consumer electronics space. Contrarily, there

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is at 2 pm ET and the chances of any move on the 3.50-3.75% Fed funds rate is nearly nil. Looking further out, the market is seeing less of a chance of rate cuts than it did a few weeks ago, and that’s despite worsening employment. The market had

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, as expected but the statement highlighted risks to both sides of the mandate. Whether war is net positive (due to oil) or net negative (due to costs), it will shift composition Food inflation remains a problem Uncertainty is high, we’ve seen an evolution of the risks since

This year’s IPO calendar is expected to feature giants like SpaceX and OpenAI. Although there is no talk that either will disappoint, there are still reasons for concern — not so much because SpaceX once insisted it wouldn’t go public until it was flying to Mars regularly, or that OpenAI started as a nonprofit, but

The broader NASDAQ and S&P indices both came under pressure last Friday, with the NASDAQ breaking and closing below its 200-day moving average, while the S&P managed to hold just above its own 200-day MA. That divergence set the stage for a potential shift in bias. On Monday, markets gapped higher as weekend developments helped

A wave of headlines crossed the wires in the final minutes of trading, adding to an already tense backdrop. On the political front, President Trump appears to be distancing himself from rising gasoline prices, instead shifting focus to Vice President Vance, who is set to meet with oil executives as the administration looks to address

Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology, according to the WSJ. The report says “Russia is trying to keep Iran in the fight”. That makes total sense from Russia’s perspective as it: Boosts oil prices Gives the US a taste of its own

Prior +1.7% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% No changes to the initial estimates with the country breakdown seen below. The main sticking point remains services inflation, which is seen at 3.4% in February. That is up slightly from 3.2% in January, reaffirming more stubborn price pressures in general. Food price inflation

Neutral-to-hawkish hold: focus on oil and geopolitics may keep rate-cut expectations contained, supporting USD and front-end yields if inflation risks are seen as skewed higher. Summary: Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged Statement tweaks likely modest, with labour data language smoothed January–February payroll volatility to be downplayed Geopolitical risks expected to

NQ analysis: order flow points to a bullish repair, but not a runaway breakout Nasdaq price prediction today leans bullish, with a market bias score of +5.8 at investingLive.co, as order flow improves and the Point of Control shifts higher. The recovery looks real, but this still needs to prove it can turn into a

Prior was -0.7% January non-defense capital goods orders ex air +0.1% vs 0.0% prelim The Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey tracks the dollar value of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories across the U.S. manufacturing sector. The full factory orders report covers both durable and nondurable goods and is typically

Qatar is a natural gas superpower and it’s sounding the alarm after today’s attack on Iran’s gas field. Last week, the US appear to rebuke Israel after attacks on Tehran’s oil storage facilities but now the US and Israel are striking natural gas facilities and Iran is preparing to respond. The problem here is that

Israel launched an attack that struck the South Pars petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh in southern Iran. A report from Axios said it was coordinated and approved by the US. In response, Iran said it will warn Gulf allies that a response is coming. A Fars report said “Iran will hit enemy sites that were previously

The price of oil is stretching to the upside on headline news. Qatari Foreign Minister is saying that Israel’s targeting of facilities 12 Aransas South pars gas field is dangerous and irresponsible The IRGC is issued an evacuation warning for several energy facilities across the golf An Iranian military source says that Iran will strike

Prior was 2.25% BOC says risks to growth are to the downside while inflation risks have gone up As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as neede Recent data suggest that near-term economic growth will be weaker than anticipated in January The labour market remains soft Recent data also suggest ongoing weakness in

Prior was +3842K Gasoline -5436K vs -1607K exp Distillates -2527K vs -1525K exp Refinery utilization +0.6% vs +0.4% The API data from late yesterday: Crude +6600K Gasoline -4600K Distillates +1400K Given the API data, this isn’t a huge surprise but it’s still bearish. Of course, the oil market is worried about much bigger things that

Producer prices came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the recent shift toward a more inflation-conscious narrative. Headline PPI rose 0.7% MoM versus 0.3% expected, while the year-over-year rate accelerated to 3.4% (vs 2.9% expected). Core measures told a similar story, with PPI ex-food and energy up 0.5% MoM (vs 0.3% expected) and the annual rate

Headlines: Oil price surge sees momentum being tested, are markets too complacent? Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) to resume at a rate of 250,000 barrels to start with Equities continue to put up a strong front this week, at least for now Fed preview: the central bank will avoid scaring markets and keep the status quo BoC

EURUSD Pushes Above the 200-Hour Moving Average — Then Reverses The EURUSD moved higher during the European morning session, briefly extending above the 200-hour moving average at 1.15416. In doing so, the pair entered a significant swing area between 1.15420 and 1.15549 — a zone defined by a series of recent highs and lows from

Trump has been unleashing something of a tweetstorm today. He started with this: About an hour later, he reposted this with the correct spelling of “strait”. This has been an idea that’s been floated for awhile and it’s completely plausible that the US does it. However there could be long-ranging consequences, particularly if Iran can

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and take a “wait and see” approach amid the US-Iran war. At this meeting, we will also get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot Plot. Inflation and unemployment will likely be revised upwards, while growth forecasts might be downgraded. The

The USD is little changed as markets grow increasingly comfortable with developments in the Middle East. At the same time, attention is shifting toward a heavy slate of central bank decisions, highlighted by today’s Fed announcement. As North American traders enter, the dollar is mixed against the major currency pairs, with price action—rather than direction—telling

Prior was 2.9% PPI final demand +0.7% vs +0.3% expected (prior was +0.5%) PPI ex-food and energy +3.9% y/y vs +3.7% expected Ex-food and energy +0.5% vs +0.3% expected PPI Ex Food/Energy/trade +3.5%% m/m vs +0.3% prior PPI Ex Foor/Energy/trade +0.5% y/y vs +3.4% prior This will be the last clean read before the Iran

It’s FOMC day but somehow it does not really feel like that. Or at least not in the typical sense I would say. The Middle East conflict continues to take center stage and even with the central bank bonanza in town this week, markets will stay fixated on US-Iran developments for the most part. Still,

Shares of Amazon are higher by about $3.50, or 1.66%, at $215.25. The upside momentum was kickstarted by bullish comments from CEO Andy Jassy, who said AI could drive AWS revenue to $600 billion by 2036, doubling the prior $300 billion target. The remarks have helped re-ignite the AI narrative and underpin today’s bid. From

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar pulled back across the board in the first part of the week on what looks like profit-taking from extreme levels rather than a change in fundamentals as we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst to trigger a reversal yet. The focus remains on the US-Iran war as a prolonged conflict

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy. The breadth and duration of

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, as there’s still limited progress on inflation and growing downside risks to the economy linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. The latest Tokyo CPI report showed inflation easing further in February, with core inflation slipping below the BoJ’s 2% target.

Bullish tactical signal: light positioning and washed-out sentiment raise the risk of a sharp upside squeeze in equities, potentially lifting the S&P 500 despite ongoing macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Summary: Barclays signals strongest equity buy opportunity in ~1 year Equity Timing Indicator drops to -8.3, “highly attractive” zone Historically linked to strong short-term equity returns

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.0%. The focus will be on central bank’s signals about potential intervention in the currency market after EUR/CHF fell to 0.90 recently amid the US-Iran conflict. The central bank has repeatedly said that the bar for a return to negative interest rates

RBA delivers second straight hike as inflation risks dominate, with May move finely balanced. Recap via Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts, in brief. Summary: RBA raised cash rate 25bp to 4.10% for a second straight meeting Decision was narrowly split 5–4, highlighting a finely balanced call Debate centred on timing, not direction, of further tightening

Amid a better risk mood so far this week, the dollar has also struggled a fair bit. The fate of the currency seems tied to oil prices, which are also losing a bit of traction despite WTI crude keeping above $90 levels. Likewise, the dollar might still be trading well higher compared to where we

Australia’s leading index holds just above trend, but momentum is fading as headwinds build. Summary: Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index held at +0.08% in February (unchanged from January) Down from +0.13% in September, signalling moderating momentum Growth remains slightly above trend but losing pace Financial components (ASX cooling) offset by commodities and hours worked RBA rate

U.S. stocks closed higher, with broad-based gains across the major indices signaling a constructive tone into the end of the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the gains with a gain of 0.67%. The rise is indicative of investors willingness to take on riskier assets. The NASDAQ led the major index move move, rising 0.47%,

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 159.00 level. The drop yesterday owes much to a loss in momentum for the dollar, as broader risk sentiment picked up across markets. That is continuing today but the major currencies space

US stocks posted back-to-back daily gains in trading yesterday for the first time since the end of February. And S&P 500 futures are looking poised again, up another 0.4% today. The better market mood yesterday came despite oil prices holding higher but today, we are starting to see a drop in oil after this headline

China clears Nvidia H200 chip sales, signalling tentative thaw in tech restrictions. Summary: China approves purchases of Nvidia H200 AI chips Licences granted for multiple Chinese customers, per source (Reuters) CEO Jensen Huang confirms orders and regulatory clearance Nvidia had awaited approvals from both US and Chinese authorities Production of H200 chips set to restart

At some point last week, US stocks were pushed to the limit. But once again, it is a case of bend but don’t break as key technical levels hold. And even as oil prices are holding up, we’re starting to see dip buyers come in to push equities back up this week. With S&P 500

Japan wage growth remains strong, but Middle East risks cloud sustainability. Info via Reuters. Summary: Major Japanese firms set to deliver strong pay hikes in annual wage talks Wage growth momentum extends into a fourth consecutive year Early deals include Mitsubishi Motors agreeing to +5.1% pay rise Rengo unions seeking +5.94% vs +6.09% last year

Barclays flags strongest stock buy signal in a year as sentiment resets Fed set to hold as Deutsche Bank flags geopolitics clouding outlook China approves Nvidia H200 AI chip sales as licences granted to multiple firms China firms ramp up FX hedging as yuan strength threatens export earnings PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at

Japan factory sentiment jumps to four-year high, but outlook softens on geopolitical risks. Summary: Japan Reuters Tankan: manufacturers sentiment +18 (prior +13) — highest since Dec 2021 Non-manufacturers steady at +25 (prior +25) June outlook: manufacturers seen at +14, non-manufacturers +21 Strength driven by semiconductors, chemicals, and transport machinery Weak spots include steel (still negative)

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 20.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data releases today are unlikely to have much of an immediate impact on financial markets. I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The pound is trading at the highs of the day as the US dollar gives back most of the big rally on Friday. The market is beginning to take a more-constructive view on the duration and impact of the Iran war, though it’s certainly a subject to change on any given headline. In the past

Iraq restarts Ceyhan pipeline exports, offering rare supply relief amid Hormuz disruption. Summary: Iraq and KRG agree to resume oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline Flows expected to restart with initial volumes from Kirkuk fields Deal includes joint coordination and enhanced security measures Comes as Iraq’s southern output plunges ~70% due to Hormuz disruption Restart

Japan swings to trade surplus as exports beat expectations despite weak China demand. Summary: Japan February exports +4.2% y/y (exp. +1.6%, prior +16.8%) Imports +10.2% y/y (exp. +11.5%, prior -2.5%) Trade balance +¥57.3bn (exp. -¥483.2bn, prior -¥1.15tn) Exports to China -10.9% y/y, US -8% y/y Exports to EU +14% y/y, Asia +2.8% y/y Data shows

India scrambles to secure LPG shipments through Hormuz as energy shortages intensify. Summary: India prioritising safe passage for 6 LPG tankers and 2 crude tankers via Strait of Hormuz Ships carry ~270,000 tonnes of LPG, critical amid domestic shortages 22 India-flagged vessels remain stranded in the Gulf Includes LPG, crude oil, and LNG carriers India

Chinese firms boost FX hedging to record levels as yuan strength pressures exporters. Summary: Chinese firms ramp up FX hedging as yuan strengthens Net forward settlement contracts hit record $107bn in February Hedging surge reflects concern over export competitiveness Yuan strength driven by dollar weakness, firm PBoC fixing, and improved US-China ties Strong export performance

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump was informed most “allies” won’t help with Hormoz. Says US doesn’t need help anyway Trump on the war: A couple of weeks, not much longer Trump: NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there. U.S. Treasury auctions of $13 billion of 20 year notes at a high yield of 4.817% US

Projectile hits near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, raising risks without immediate damage. Summary: IAEA says a projectile struck the Bushehr nuclear power plant site No damage to the facility and no injuries reported Strike occurred near, not within, critical nuclear infrastructure Bushehr is Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant Incident highlights rising risk to nuclear

BOJ Governor Ueda says inflation is gradually moving toward target ahead of the March 19 policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the BOJ’s 2% target. He reiterated the central bank will adjust policy as needed to achieve stable and durable inflation at the target

Trump on his visit to China to see Xi: “I’d love to go, but I have to be here because of the war.” “We asked to delay it a month.” Was scheduled for March 31-April 2. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian consumer confidence hits pandemic-era lows while inflation expectations surge ahead of an expected RBA rate hike: Australian dollar supported as markets bet on RBA rate hikes – preview of today’s decision Economic & event calendar Asia 17 March 2026, Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike expected Summary: ANZ–Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell to

Prior 58.3 Current conditions -62.9 vs – 67.3 expected Prior -65.9 I had to double check the number because of the huge deviation. This is much lower than expected as the lowest forecast was 30.0. The US-Iran war and the surge in energy prices have certainly played a major role here. ZEW President Professor Achim

Trump started a war without consulting any allies and then asked for their help. Evidently, they mostly told him they don’t want to send ships to Hormuz despite his weekend pleas. Now he’s angry but says the US doesn’t need help anyway. The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that

Prior was -0.8% Index vs 70.9 prior This is the lone notable US economic release today and with the Fed in blackout, all eyes are on Iran today. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), published monthly by the National Association of Realtors, tracks signed contracts on existing homes and serves as a leading indicator of

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, as widely expected, but the decision underscored a growing divide within the board, passing by a narrow 5–4 vote. The hike reflects increasing concern that inflation pressures are re-emerging, with policymakers pointing to stronger demand and capacity constraints that have

European indices are higher for the 2nd consecutive day to start the new trading week. This week the SNB, ECB, and BOE announcer interest-rate decisions – all on Thursday. All are expected to keep the rates unchanged. At the close today, the pan-European Euro STOXX 50 gained 0.26%, closing at 5,764.00, setting a constructive tone

Iran / Military stance Views Iran as a long-standing threat, saying it has been destabilizing for decades Frames current actions as purely military, not political Claims the U.S. has the capability to cripple Iran quickly (power grid, oil infrastructure like Kharg Island) Signals operations are ongoing but nearing an end, saying the U.S. is not

High-yield 4.817% WI level at the time of the auction 4.824% Tail -0.7 bps versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis points 2.76X versus 6 month average of 2.63X 9.24% versus 6 month average of 10.9% Directs 21.58 vs 6 month average of 27.0% Indirects 69.18% vs 6 month average of 62.1% AUCTION GRADE: A-

The US stock market is displaying a dynamic landscape today, with technology stocks experiencing mixed results, while financials and consumer cyclical sectors exhibit strength. This sits against a backdrop of varied performances across different industries, shaping a unique investor sentiment. 📊 Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals that the technology sector is sending mixed signals.

Trump yesterday hinted that France would ultimately get involved in a Hormuz operation and now we’re seeing signs that’s true, though with some strange caveats: Once strikes have stopped, we are read to take the responsibility of an escort system in Hormuz Any role in Hormuz would be only if there is an end to

The USDCAD has spent much of the time since January 26 trading within a well-defined range between 1.3522 and 1.3724, with multiple rotations between support and resistance. Last week, sellers pressed the pair down to the lower boundary of that range. However, momentum shifted late in the week, with price breaking above the upper extreme.

Investors are most long commodities since April 2022; stock market sentiment turns bearish Iran’s Supreme Leader says “not the right time for peace”, US and Israel must be defeated Germany March ZEW economic sentiment index -0.5 vs 39.0 expected Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps oil prices supported; de-escalation is the only fix Italy February final

The EURUSD is continuing its push to the upside, with the pair now stretching toward an important technical ceiling defined by the 200-hour moving average at 1.15499. As the price approaches that level, traders are once again faced with a familiar question: can the buyers build enough momentum to break through, or will sellers step

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in June but warns a surge in oil prices could lift U.S. recession risk. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet March 17 and 18. Summary: Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June, with another

We may be seeing the first real signs of opposition to the Iran war, and it’s coming from a Trump-appointed official. National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent — a former Green Beret — announced his resignation today. Before his nomination, he was chief of staff to Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.. What’s notable about

Dominguez spoke to the FT earlier and said that naval escorts are not a “100 percent guarantee” in terms of ship safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding that: “It reduces the risk, but the risk is still there. The merchant ships and seafarers can be affected.” As such, he argues that military intervention to

Inflation was already too high, reflecting the fact that demand was outstripping supply The cash rate was not high enough to bring inflation back to the target Higher petrol prices will add to inflation but they were not the reason for today’s decision The risks to inflation have tilted to the upside We must also

The USDCHF has moved lower today as the market rotates back toward support following last week’s strong rally. The pair began its move higher from 0.7747 on Tuesday and extended to a peak of 0.7922 yesterday, stalling just short of the 61.8% retracement at 0.79242. That failure near a key Fibonacci level helped trigger the

As North American traders enter the session, markets are relatively mixed. U.S. equities are showing modest divergence in pre-market trading, yields are little changed, and oil prices are higher by roughly $3. The USD initially moved higher before giving those gains back, and is now trading near unchanged levels. However, as is often the case

The world economy actually did okay despite tariffs threat last year It is still possible that if Middle East conflict resolves, everything turns out okay But we are alert to the risks and if circumstances change If the world economy is going to be in big trouble, that will have different implications for inflation And

J.P. Morgan is hosting its Industrials Conference today and airlines are at an interesting cross section of competing factors. On the upside, demand appears to be booming. Delta CEO Ed Bastian repeatedly highlighted strength in bookings. “We are seeing strength in every market that we look at,” he said and emphasized that last week’s sales

Iran’s new Supreme Leader in foreign policy session rejects proposals for ‘reducing tensions or seek peace with the US’ Supreme Leader rejected proposals that were sent to Iran’s foreign ministry by two intermediary countries Supreme Leader told foreign policy session ‘not the right time for peace’, US and Israel must be defeated, pay compensation Iran’s

Earlier: Morgan Stanley sees Fed cuts starting June, warns oil at $125–$150 raises recession risk — A new energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict is complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. This via Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal (gated). In brief …. Summary: The Federal Reserve is confronting new inflation risks

Prior +1.0% HICP +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelim Prior +1.0% The most notable thing from the report is that core annual inflation is seen making a big jump, up from 1.7% in January to 2.4% in February. Even if you take inflation excluding energy alone, that shows a material jump from 1.9% in January to

Global investors turn bearish as Iran and private credit concerns end “frothy bull” sentiment Net 45% of investors expect higher global CPI in the next 12 months, up from 9% a month ago Net 17% of investors expect lower short-term rates, lowest since February 2023 and down from 46% a month ago Measure of risk

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold probed below the tight range yesterday as the week started on a negative note, but eventually the price returned inside the range as the sentiment improved in the American session. The focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, but as of now, there was no

It’s a big, big week for major central bank decisions. And as mentioned last week, the RBA is arguably the most interesting of the ones on the agenda this week. And they duly delivered on that earlier by raising the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.10% today. The RBA made it clear that they were

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Singapore’s February exports rose 4.0% y/y, missing expectations as electronics gains were partly offset by weaker non-electronics shipments. Summary: Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 4.0% year-on-year in February, below expectations for a 5.5% increase in a Reuters poll. Export growth was driven by electronics shipments, particularly integrated circuits and disk media products. Non-electronics exports

New Zealand food prices -0.1 percent in February prior +2.5% For the y/y, +4.5% Data from Statistics New Zealand. Food prices make up nearly 19 percent of the consumer price index. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.2% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We saw a classic “sell the fact” reaction last week after the G7 economies and the IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Despite that, oil prices climbed back into triple-digit territory as hopes for a quick end to the war faded and disruptions in the

Japanese officials deliver coordinated policy remarks as markets watch for signs of support amid yen weakness. Summary: Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda issued a series of remarks within minutes of each other, addressing fiscal policy, bond markets and currency dynamics. Katayama stressed that monetary policy tools, including BOJ bond purchases, remain

The BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.75% at its March 18/19 meeting as markets watch for signals on future tightening and bond purchases. Earlier: CBA says rising oil prices from Iran war could weaken yen via trade balance Summary: The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75%

BOJ Governor Ueda reiterates inflation progress and wage growth focus ahead of policy meeting. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the 2% target. He stressed that sustainable inflation must be supported by wage growth, reinforcing the BOJ’s long-standing policy condition. The comments came ahead of the

There’s quite a bit to break down from the decision earlier, with traders still digesting it all ahead of RBA governor Bullock’s press conference at the bottom of the hour. In case you missed it: Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate by 25 bps, as widely expected The key thing is that they

Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate by 25bps, as widely expected BOJ’s Ueda says inflation rising toward 2% ahead of policy meeting – recap Tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz as UK maritime agency warns ships Australian confidence hits pandemic low as inflation expectations surge before RBA hike Fed faces new inflation shock

BIS warns central banks not to overreact to Iran-driven energy price spike unless the shock proves prolonged. Summary: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has urged central banks not to rush policy responses to the recent surge in energy prices driven by the Iran crisis. Officials say a temporary supply shock, such as a short-lived

Rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict may pressure the yen by worsening Japan’s trade balance, CBA says. Summary: Analysts say higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict could pressure the yen by worsening Japan’s trade balance. Japan is heavily dependent on imported energy, making the currency sensitive to rising crude costs. CBA

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 51bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A tanker was struck by a projectile near Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, prompting a shipping warning near the Strait of Hormuz. Summary: A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while at anchor in the Gulf of Oman, near Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The downside push at the end of last week and early this week fell short of critically testing the 1.1400 level. And amid the turn in the risk mood yesterday,

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Reserve Bank of Australia vote was (almost) evenly split at 5-4. Summary: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, delivering a surprise tightening in a narrow 5–4 board vote. Policymakers said inflation had picked up materially in the second half of 2025, reflecting stronger capacity pressures in

Iran’s foreign minister says his last contact with U.S. envoy Witkoff occurred before the latest American strike, downplaying reports of ongoing diplomatic messaging during the conflict. Summary: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says his last contact with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff occurred before the recent U.S. military strike on Iran. The remark follows reports that

US and Iran have been in direct contact in recent days – report NVDA stock chops: Huang sees “at least $1 trillion” in revenue visibility through 2027 Oil settles near the lows of the day, falling $5 One of the greatest oil traders of all-time thinks the Treasury got involved in the market Trump: Not

Expectations for a rate hike today from the Reserve Bank of Australia kicked into high gear on the back of comments last week from Deputy Governor Hauser: ICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live) The cavalcade of rate hike forecasts followed soon after: Australian bank analysts are

Prior was +0.7% Capacity utilization 76.3% vs 76.2% exp Prior utilization 76.2% (revised to 76.3%) Manufacturing output +0.2% vs +0.1% exp This is slightly ahead of expectations but won’t be a market mover. U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, following a strong 0.7% gain in January that was the largest monthly increase in nearly

We had in-depth, candid talks Talked about bilateral tariffs under new circumstances Talked about possible extension of tariff suspensions, other matters Talked about concerns of trade, economic issues U.S. talked about on recent tariff adjustments Chinese side voiced concerns Both sides agreed to maintain stability of tariff levels Discussed mechanisms on trade, investment Both sides

Trump says the U.S. is striking Iranian drone sites and seeking international help to secure the Strait of Hormuz, though details of any coalition remain uncertain. Summary: Trump said Iran wants negotiations but is not yet ready to engage. The U.S. claims it is striking Iranian drone manufacturing facilities. Washington is discussing Hormuz security arrangements

Lowest reading since Sept 1.6% Prior was +2.3% CPM m/m +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior CPI m/m 0.0% Core measures: BOC core 2.3% vs 2.6% prior BOC core m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% prior Core CPI % m/m % vs +0.1% prior CPI median +2.3% vs +2.4% expected (prior was 2.5%) CPI trim +2.3% vs 2.4%

China’s industrial output, retail sales and investment beat expectations early in 2026, but the property sector remained deeply in contraction. Summary: China’s industrial output rose 6.3% y/y, beating forecasts of 5.0% and accelerating from December’s 5.2%. Retail sales increased 2.8% y/y, above the 2.5% forecast and up from December’s 0.9%. Fixed-asset investment rose 1.8% y/y

As a reminder, US president Trump is scheduled to make a visit to China from 31 March to 2 April. Beijing has not officially confirmed the dates but it seems like the visit will still take place regardless. After all, it’s now a case of Trump needing to do so or risk losing face. That

Ethereum Analysis Today: ETH Futures Lead Crypto Rally as Bitcoin Holds $73K – Crypto Market Predictions Turn Cautiously Bullish If you have been following investingLive Crypto, you’ve already been an early bull 2+ weeks ago but now the other bulls are joining in. Recent analysis from investingLive shows that the current bullish momentum actually began

U.S. oil executives warned the Trump administration that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz could worsen the global energy crisis despite policy efforts to stabilise markets. — Earlier, this empty report: There is a BIG BUT on this: US preparing multinational naval escorts for Strait of Hormuz Summary: U.S. oil executives warned the Trump administration

Nasdaq 100 futures analysis today: NQ jumps as short-term bulls regain control, but the weekly chart still urges caution NQ futures are showing fresh strength again, but this is not yet a full all-clear for the Nasdaq 100. The short-term picture has improved the most, the daily view is stabilizing, and the weekly backdrop still

Trump posted on Truth Social: News Conference today, prior to Trump Kennedy Center Board Meeting. Thank you! I still can’t find a specific start time published for today’s meeting. None of the reporting includes a scheduled time — just that it’s happening today (Monday, March 16) at the White House. The exact time doesn’t appear

The RBNZ says U.S. tariffs may lower inflation in New Zealand in the near term but could push prices higher later as global supply chains adjust. Summary: The RBNZ says U.S. tariffs could reduce inflation in New Zealand in the near term. Trade diversion and a stronger NZ dollar may lower import prices. Long-term supply

The USD is moving lower as risk sentiment improves and recent defensive flows begin to unwind. With some geopolitical tensions easing, capital is rotating back toward risk assets. U.S. stocks are higher, with the S&P 500 up about 72 points, while yields are moving lower, with the 10-year yield down roughly 5 basis points. At

The USDCAD is moving lower on the day as markets react to an improvement in global risk sentiment tied to easing Middle East tensions. The shift in tone has pushed stocks higher, yields higher, oil prices lower, and the USD broadly weaker, helping to weigh on the USDCAD. From a technical perspective, the pair has

Prior was 36 Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 25 vs 22 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 46 prior The headline number has been sliding — the index fell to 36 in February, down from 37 in January, which itself dropped from 39 in December.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has halted for the first time since the conflict began, underscoring the scale of disruption to a key global energy corridor. Summary: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero on Saturday. The shutdown marks the first halt in transits since the war began on February 28.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar skyrocketed in the final part of last week as prospects of a quick end to the war faded and oil resumed the rally towards triple digit levels. Traders continue to price out the rate cut bets amid surging energy prices. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC policy decision where

Trump pressed NATO allies and China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning the alliance faces a bleak future if partners refuse to assist. Earlier, weak stuff this: There is a BIG BUT on this: US preparing multinational naval escorts for Strait of Hormuz EU weighs naval response as Trump’s Strait of Hormuz disruption

Summary: China’s statistics bureau said the economy has made a “sound start” to 2026. Industrial output and retail sales beat expectations earlier in the day. Officials cited technological innovation and AI as supporting growth. Authorities warned the economy still faces “strong supply, weak demand.” Consumption is expected to rise as policy support measures take effect.

China New Home Prices February 2026 -0.28% m/m (prior -0.37%) -3.2% y/y (prior -3.1% Used Home Prices -0.43% m/m (prior –0.54%) Still to come: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Just about everything has gone wrong for Japan ever since the US-Iran conflict started. The war in the Middle East has not only caused a surge in oil prices, hampering supply to the Japanese economy, but also thrown plans by both the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) into disarray. The Japanese

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar skyrocketed in the final part of last week as prospects of a quick end to the war faded and oil resumed the rally towards triple digit levels. Traders continue to price out the rate cut bets amid surging energy prices. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC policy decision where

But no one will answer. In a desperate attempt to try and “fix” this whole mess of a situation, US president Trump has called for allies to step in and help with the Strait of Hormuz de facto closure. His suggestion is for the countries affected to send their own warships to help escort ships

It is reported that a call is being arranged between Japan foreign minister Motegi and US secretary of state Rubio for later today, according to sources familiar with bilateral relations. Among what will be discussed is likely the topic of the Strait of Hormuz, after US president Trump has called for ally countries to dispatch

Prior month 7.1 Details from the NY Fed New orders: 6.4 versus 5.8 last month , little changed, indicating a modest increase in demand. Shipments: -6.9 versus -1.0 last month, down 6 points, showing declining shipments. Unfilled orders: 10.8 versus 9.1 last month, up 2 points, suggesting backlogs increased. Delivery times: 13.7 versus 4.0 last

EU foreign ministers will debate reinforcing the bloc’s naval mission as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz threaten global energy supplies. Summary: EU foreign ministers will discuss strengthening the bloc’s Aspides naval mission. Some officials have suggested extending the mission toward the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway carries about 20% of global oil and LNG

Of note, all but one of 29 economists from major houses expect the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged throughout the year. The lone exception is Barclays, who forecasts that the Swiss central bank is to cut interest rates to -0.25% in Q2 2026 and hold that until year-end. And that means all 29

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar skyrocketed in the final part of last week as prospects of a quick end to the war faded and oil resumed the rally towards triple digit levels. Traders continue to price out the rate cut bets amid surging energy prices. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC policy decision where

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The dollar continues to go from strength to strength, with EUR/USD in particular falling off to its lowest since the summer of 2025. The late July and early August lows from then at 1.1400 will be key

It’s been several years since Binance’s global operation left the US market. But at the WEF this year, Co-CEO Richard Teng implied to CNBC that the company will consider returning under the right conditions. With the global spotlight on the US and its GENIUS Act and the potential for an upcoming Clarity Act advancement, it’s

France’s Macron urged Iran to halt regional attacks and restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during talks with President Pezeshkian. Summary: French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Macron urged Iran to halt attacks against countries in the region. He called for freedom of navigation to be restored in the Strait

The Middle East turmoil continues and Iran is definitely not toning down on its threats and strikes across the region. It is now being reported across multiple sources that UAE’s Fujairah oil port has been attacked again. The damage is now being assessed but Reuters sources are saying that oil loading has been suspended at

US strikes on targets at Iran’s Kharg Island have raised fears of a wider escalation China says economy off to solid start but demand remains weak Trump is weighing a seizure of Iran’s critical oil depot on Kharg Island China industrial output beats forecasts as property slump deepens Strait of Hormuz ship traffic collapses to

U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran’s Kharg Island have raised fears of a wider escalation that could threaten global oil supplies. Summary: The U.S. struck Iranian military facilities on Kharg Island. Trump said oil infrastructure was deliberately spared. Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports. Analysts say a direct strike could halt

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 137.3bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan and South Korea warn they are ready to act against FX volatility as yen and won slide on dollar strength tied to Middle East tensions. Summary: Japan and South Korea voiced concern over sharp depreciation in the yen and won. Officials said they stand ready to respond to excessive foreign-exchange volatility. The currencies have

Trump is pushing to form an international naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while weighing a potential seizure of Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub. Summary: Trump is working to assemble a multinational coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The White House hopes to announce the coalition later this week. Washington has been

U.S. and Chinese officials held what ‘sources’ described as constructive talks in Paris to stabilise trade ties ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in Beijing. Summary: U.S. and Chinese officials held “candid and constructive” trade talks in Paris. Discussions focused on stabilising the bilateral trade relationship. China may consider increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

Chinese military aircraft activity near Taiwan has surged again after an unusual two-week lull that had prompted speculation about Beijing’s intentions. Info via Politico. Summary: Taiwan detected 26 Chinese military aircraft near the island on Saturday. Sixteen aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone across multiple sectors. Seven Chinese naval vessels were also operating near

Global equity funds recorded their biggest outflows in months as oil supply fears and geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safer assets. Reuters had the round up. Summary: Global equity funds saw $7.05 billion in outflows during the week to March 11. The withdrawals were the largest since mid-December 2025. Rising oil prices and supply disruptions

Japan warned it is ready to take decisive action on currency volatility as authorities intensify monitoring of foreign exchange markets. Summary: Japan’s finance minister warned that FX markets are “extremely volatile.” Tokyo declined to comment on specific currency levels. Authorities said they are prepared to take “decisive steps” if needed. The comments follow Japan–South Korea

While there are ‘weekend markets’ these do not show wholesale participation. Only once FX begins to trade for real that wholesale flows can be spotted in major markets. This will be become more relevant as major markets begin to open in the hours ahead. Not a lot of change from late Friday so far, a

New Zealand electronic card retail spending rose in February from the previous month. The electronic card data covers around 68% of core retail sales and serves as the country’s primary monthly gauge of retail activity. Earlier: New Zealand services sector falls back into contraction in February This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. is preparing to unveil a multinational naval coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but with so many caveats at be virtually useless. Summary (check out the bolding, this is all one big conjecture, of little substance). The U.S. is preparing to announce a multinational naval coalition to escort ships through

India says diplomacy with Iran is helping reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as global powers debate military protection for the vital oil route. Summary: India says diplomacy with Iran has helped reopen shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar cited talks with Tehran that allowed two Indian LPG carriers

In markets there is often a ‘risk-off/risk-on’ dynamic around economic news. At the moment, that’s shifted to more of a war-on/war-off footing, or at least a shift in how long the war might take. This view is winning out at the moment: 1) The US tried to talk to Iran but Iran refused and is

Canada just posted its worst jobs report since the pandemic. The 83,900 jobs losses were the worst in a month since 2022 and — worse yet, there were 108K full-time jobs lost. That’s led to a slump in the Canadian dollar and boosted USD/CAD by 90 pips to 1.3728. That’s the highest for the pair

The latest NBC poll shows Trump’s approval among registered voters down 3 points to 44% from 47% in March 2025, with disapproval climbing to 54%. The DDHQ polling average paints a similar picture at 43.1/54.4. What matters for markets here is the midterm setup. Trump himself is flagging the risk, noting the historical pattern of

Trump on Iran: Going to be hitting them very hard over the next week Trump claimed Iran was “about to surrender” a day before the Supreme Leader vowed to fight How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks?

GBPUSD breaks lower as sellers regain momentum The GBPUSD is once again pushing lower and trading to new session lows, extending the bearish momentum seen earlier in the day. The pair had already broken below the previous low for the year at 1.3252, but the initial move lacked follow-through and briefly corrected higher. That corrective

USDCAD extends trend-like rally toward key resistance The USDCAD has been trending steadily higher since midday yesterday, with the pair staging a strong, trend-like move to the upside. The rally began near 1.3575 and has extended to a session high of 1.3715 in trading today. The advance has unfolded in a clear three-leg structure, with

The USD made new highs vs the EUR, JPY and GBP for the year today, but is seeing some corrective action ahead of the dump of data today. At 8:30 AM ET: PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. The core is expected at 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY (vs 3.0%

Prior -24.8K Unemployment rate: 6.7% vs 6.6% expected Prior 6.5% Full-time employment change: -108.4K vs +44.9k last month Part-time employment change: +24.5K vs -69.7K last month Participation rate: 64.9% vs 65.0% last month Average hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 4.2% vs 3.3% last month This is an awful jobs report. The Canadian dollar is selling off

A Reuters poll shows economists expect the RBA to raise rates to 4.10% in March and potentially to 4.35% later this year. Summary: 23 of 30 economists expect the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.10% on March 17. The forecast marks a shift from February’s poll, which expected rates to remain at 3.85%.

EURUSD falls to new 2026 lows before corrective bounce The EURUSD moved sharply lower earlier in the day, extending its bearish momentum and breaking to new lows for 2026. In the process, the pair also traded to its lowest level since August 2025, highlighting the continued downside pressure in the currency pair. The move lower

Mexico’s President said she helped to broker talks between the US and Cuba that are now confirmed. Various reports said the talks have started and today Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration. “These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that

There is one report floating around and it suggests that Marco Rubio reached out to Iran’s leaders this week to open talks on a ceasefire. Iran didn’t even answer. Then the US went through France to try to open up talks and Iran said its goals weren’t achieved yet. What are the goals? A longer-term

Prior +0.1% GDP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.7% The more detailed breakdown as per the following: Services +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Industrial output -0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.9% Manufacturing output +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.5% Construction output +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior

Consumer sentiment preliminary for March 55.5 vs 55.0 estimate. Weakest cents December of last year. prior month 56.6. Current conditions 57.8 vs 56.6 prior month Expectations 54.1 vs 56.6 prior month. Weakest since November of last year. 1 year inflation expectations 3.4% vs 3.4% prior month 5 year inflation expectations 3.2% vs 3.3% prior month

The USDJPY continues to extend to the upside, supported by a combination of higher oil prices and rising U.S. yields. Crude oil settled the day up $8.48, or 9.72%, while U.S. Treasury yields also moved higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.257%, up 5.1 basis points. The rise in yields is helping to underpin the

📈 Technology Sector: A Forward Momentum The tech sector is surging today with an overall positive momentum. Leading the charge, Micron Technology (MU) has seen an impressive rise of 4.77%, while Nvidia (NVDA) increased by 0.56%. This upswing in the semiconductor space reflects growing investor confidence and optimism surrounding technological advancements. 🚀 Communication Services: Riding

Economists at Barclays now see the Fed cutting rates in September of this year and March 2027. Previously, they saw a cut in June of this year and another in September. This shift tracks market pricing, which has shifted substantially since the Iran war and resulting oil price spike. Market pricing now sees just 22.5

The WSJ reports that the US is moving additional warships to the Middle East, citing three US officials. It says that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit. Such

Japan trade minister Akazawa: Will continue to discuss Japan’s allocation and timing of IEA-led coordinated oil reserves release Japanese government, together with private sector operators, will make utmost efforts in securing alternative sources of crude oil. Japanese companies are exploring alternative sources for crude oil procurement, including U.S., Central Asia, and South America This article

Asia’s heavy reliance on medium-sour Gulf crude is making disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz difficult to replace quickly. Summary: Many Asian refineries are configured for medium-sour Gulf crude. Asia imports around 60% of its oil from the Middle East. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are slowing tanker flows. Substituting U.S., African or Brazilian

Trump reportedly told G7 leaders during a virtual summit on Wednesday that Iran was on the verge of a total military and political collapse. According to a report by Axios, which cited three officials from G7 countries briefed on the call, Trump expressed supreme confidence in the outcome of the ongoing conflict, stating that the

We are deep into the improvisation phase of the war with Iran. Donald Trump told The Brian Kilmeade Show he will know the Iran conflict is over “when I feel it in my bones.” On a somewhat more-concrete note, he suggested it may not last much longer. The market doesn’t appear to be shifting in

A handful of pipelines can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but their combined capacity falls far short of replacing the massive volumes of oil normally shipped through the critical Gulf chokepoint. Summary: The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption. A limited number of pipelines allow exporters to bypass the chokepoint. Saudi

Prior month 6.542M revised to 6.550M JOLTs Job openings for January 6.946MM vs 6.700 M estimate. Hires 5.294M vs 5.272M prior (revised) Separations 5.105M vs 5.203M prior (revised) Quits 3.137M vs 3.225M prior (revised) Layoffs and discharges 1.631M vs 1.666M (revised) For 2025 what did the numbers do? Job openings: Annual average 7.1 million in

EUR/USD 1.1700 (EUR 2.89 bn) 1.1600 (EUR 1.00 bn) 1.1500 (EUR 866.36 mn) 1.1400 (EUR 580.00 mn) USD/JPY 160.00 (US$ 464.89 mn) 159.00 (US$ 495.28 mn) 158.50 (US$ 406.68 mn) GBP/USD 1.3450 (GBP 299.62 mn) 1.3300 (GBP 150.00 mn) USD/CHF 0.7780 (US$ 299.10 mn) 0.7700 (US$ 534.13 mn) USD/CAD 1.3835 (US$ 470.70 mn) 1.3700 (US$

US equity futures are flirting with the best levels of the pre-market following a wave of economic data that points to rate cuts if/when the US or Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Notable in the pre-market news was a report saying that Trump told other world leaders earlier this week that he expected Iran

US initial claims 213K vs 215K estimate US January trade balance -54.5B vs -66.6B expected US housing starts for January 1.487M versus 1.348M estimate Israel may launch a ground campaign in Lebanon imminently Netanayu: Iran is no longer the same Iran U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of

EUR/USD 1.1700 – €2.3bn 1.1670 – €1.8bn 1.1600 – €1.4bn USD/JPY 156.00 – $1.01bn AUD/USD 0.7100 – A$896m 0.7000 – A$853m 0.7130 – A$839m GBP/USD 1.3300 – £450m 1.3350 – £409m USD/CAD 1.3835 – $471m 1.3840 – $300m NZD/USD 0.5790 – NZ$310m 0.6200 – NZ$300m Market context:EUR/USD 1.1670–1.1700 and AUD/USD 0.71 could act as short-term

The USDCHF moved to its highest level since January 23 earlier in the session as the U.S. dollar attracted buying interest. Since that high, the pair has retraced part of the advance, but it continues to hold a gain of about 0.19% on the day, keeping the bullish tone intact for now. Key support tested

Prior was +2.9% PCE M/M +% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.4% Core PCE Y/Y +% vs +3.1% expected Prior +3.0% Core PCE M/M +% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% Consumer spending and income for January: Personal income % vs +0.5% expected Prior +0.3% Personal spending % vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.3% Real personal spending %

Prior estimate 1.4% GDP 2nd estimate 0.7% versus 1.4% preliminary. This is well below the expectations going into the 1st cut of the GDP (was expecting 3.0%). GDP Deflator 3.8% vs 3.6% est. and 3.7% preliminary Core PCE 2.7% versus 2.7% estimate and 2.7% preliminary GDP sales preliminary 0.4% versus 1.2% preliminary. Consumer spending 2.0%

On US escorts in Strait of Hormuz: We would do it if we needed to Hopefully, things are going to go very well We’re going to see what happens Trump is clearly vowing to escalate the war further here which should keep the markets in defensive mode, especially heading into the weekend. Oil made headlines

Prior +0.3% HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim Prior +0.4% The HICP is the more important measure as that’s what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there’s nothing to see here. The data hasn’t been much of importance for the market anyway as the focus remains on the US-Iran war

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower today as a surge in oil prices—up roughly 8% on the day—sparked renewed concerns about inflation, economic growth, and rising input costs across large parts of the economy. The spike in crude came amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of potential disruptions to global supply routes.

Japan warns on oil price impact, signals FX action as USD/JPY nears 160 ICYMI – Tesla wins UK licence to supply electricity to households US, EU and Japan advance critical minerals trade deal with price floor plan Poor US decision-making process underestimated Iran’s willingness to disrupt Hormuz PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today

The US dollar started the week on a negative note as the record jump in oil prices got unwound on G7 discussions about emergency oil reserves release and then on Trump’s comment to CBS suggesting that the war could be over soon. The relief rally in risk weighed on the greenback as rate cut bets

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prior No changes to the preliminary estimates here. As mentioned for the French CPI, the data hasn’t been much of importance for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of

Iran’s UN envoy, comments reported via Reuters: We are not going to close Strait of Hormuz but it is our right to preserve ‘peace and security’ in the waterway Oil implications (should be a headwind, a welcome one!) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data from NZ only, unlikely to move markets noticeably upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia will release up to 762 million litres of fuel from reserves after easing stockholding rules to counter supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Summary: Australia will release up to 762 million litres of petrol and diesel from domestic reserves. The government is cutting minimum fuel stockholding obligations by up to 20%. The measure

ICYMI – Tesla receives UK licence to supply electricity to homes, expanding its push into retail energy. Summary: Tesla Energy Ventures has been granted a UK electricity supply licence by regulator Ofgem. The move allows Tesla to sell electricity directly to British households. Tesla aims to combine solar generation, battery storage and energy retail services.

Japan’s finance minister warns high oil prices are hitting markets and signals readiness to act in FX as USD/JPY nears intervention levels. Summary: Japan Finance Minister Seiko Katayama warned high oil prices are impacting financial markets. She said the government will take all possible measures to mitigate the impact. Katayama signalled readiness to act in

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury grants one-month window to sell Russian oil cargoes already loaded before new sanctions. Summary: U.S. Treasury issued a new Russia-related general license. License allows sale of Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded as of March 12. Transactions can continue until 12:01 a.m. ET on April 11. Measure provides a wind-down period for

The EURUSD is trading near the lows for the day, the week, and the year as the session moves toward the close. The selling pressure has pushed the pair close to a key technical level that, if broken, would take the price to its lowest level since November. The low for today reached 1.1511, while

Israeli officials see Iran’s regime holding firm for now, shifting focus toward weakening Tehran’s military rather than expecting imminent political collapse. Info via the Wall Street Journal (gated) Summary: Israeli officials assess Iran’s regime is unlikely to collapse in the near term despite military pressure. Security forces maintain strong control over streets, discouraging protests and

Reports from the Israeli Broadcasting Authority indicate the Security Cabinet is convening this evening to debate a significant expansion of ground operations in Lebanon. The move follows a week of intensifying friction that saw Israel nearly double its evacuation zones in southern Lebanon, now covering roughly 10% of the country’s territory. With Defense Minister Israel

Iran appears to be preparing a ground invasion in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah. Is it possible they want to tone things down with Iran before embarking on it? Comments from Netanyahu in his first press conference since the war: Iran is no longer the same Iran Dealing heavy blows to Iran’s revolutionary guard Speak with

USD/JPY is up 45 pips to a session high at 159.39. The energy crisis is potentially disasterous for the Japanese economy as it imports virutally all of its energy needs. Remember that it’s not just oil that’s being blockaded in the Strait of Hormuz but natural gas as well, which of it heading to Asia.

Sector Overview: Spotting the Market Movers The stock market is experiencing mixed trends today, with notable sectoral shifts highlighted on the heatmap. While technology and healthcare are seeing significant declines, the energy sector is standing out with positive gains. 📉 Technology: Major tech stocks are under pressure. Semiconductor giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD)

There was a time when a $65 drop in gold was blockbuster news for the precious metals market, now it’s the usual daily volatility. That’s in part because the market is more lively but it mostly reflects the law of big numbers in that at $5108, a $65 is just a 1.2% decline. Zooming out,

The U.S. has launched sweeping Section 301 probes into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, opening the door to a new wave of tariffs. Summary: The U.S. has launched a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners over excess manufacturing capacity. Targeted economies include China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan. The probe

Summary: Oracle is reportedly preparing layoffs that could reach as many as 45,000 employees, above the confirmed 20,000–30,000 range. Much of the restructuring is tied to AI automation within Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. AI agents have reportedly been managing database administration tasks for several months. One internal example saw 47 database administrators replaced by three senior

Prior was -1.30B Exports 62.48B vs 65.55B prior Imports 66.13B vs 66.85B prior Canada’s merchandise exports decreased 4.7%, while imports were down 1.1%. The 4.7% decline is the largest percentage decline since April 2025. Exports of motor vehicles and parts fell 21.2% to $5.4 billion in January, the lowest level since September 2021. Changes in

Summary: Drone strikes reportedly linked to Iran triggered fires at Oman’s Mina petroleum facility near Salalah. Authorities evacuated all vessels from the Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal as a precaution. The terminal handles roughly 1 million barrels per day of Omani crude exports. Mina Al Fahal is strategically located outside the Strait of Hormuz,

US stocks increasingly look like the want to go down and test Monday’s lows. The S&P 500 is down 95 points, or 1.3%, to 6690, which still leaves about 50 points of breathing room before we hit the March 9 low. There is a clear inverse correlation between oil and stock markets right now that’s

Comments from Iranian officials appear to be sending mixed signals, but the latest remarks suggest some effort to ease concerns about a full disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that many ships can still pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with the Iranian Navy.

High-yield 4.871% WI level at the time of the auction 4.878% Tail -0.7 basis points versus 6 month average of +0.2 basis points bid to cover 2.45X versus 6 month average of 2.39% Dealer 9.45% versus 6 month average of 11.3% Directs 27.2% versus 6 month average of 23.2% Indirects 63.4% vs 6 month average

European equities finished the session broadly lower, with Spain’s Ibex leading the declines. The selling pressure was fairly widespread across the region as risk sentiment remained cautious. Despite the drop today, the weekly picture remains mixed with some indices still holding gains for the week heading into the final trading day. European closing levels (today):

The The USDCAD is pressing higher in North American trading and once again testing a key topside ceiling that has capped the pair all week. That resistance zone has become increasingly well defined, which makes the current test especially important from a technical perspective. Looking back over the week, the high price on Monday reached

Summary: Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding. The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps. Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market. JPMorgan has marked down loans used as

Bitcoin CME futures are trying to stabilize above the $70,000 area, and the latest order-flow picture suggests buyers have improved their footing in the short term. The move is constructive, but the broader structure still looks more like a recovery phase than a fully established bullish expansion. The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a period

Prior was -72.9B Goods trade -80.8B vs -98.54B The deficit came in at $54.5B compared to $72.9B in December (revised), a swing of $18.4 billion. The consensus was looking for $66.6B so this is a meaningful miss on the deficit side — which is to say, a positive surprise for GDP math. The single biggest

The report says that the Chinese government has effectively banned refined fuel exports for the month of March “with immediate effect”. That as Beijing has ordered refiners to stop such exports for the month. All of this of course is to manage the situation back home, amid fears of domestic fuel shortages due to the

The price of Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined range, mostly bounded between $62,696 and $71,775. There have been a couple of brief extremes outside that range, including a dip to $59,930 in early February that lasted only a few hours, and a short-lived spike to $73,739 that held for roughly 15 hours. Overall,

On both Tuesday and Wednesday, the NASDAQ index stalled right against the 200-hour moving average. That moving average also aligned closely with a downward-sloping trendline, which defines the upper boundary of a trading channel. The index has been trading within this channel since February 5, with multiple tests of both the upper resistance zone and

Iran operations to take weeks, not months Navy escort will happen relatively soon Escorts can’t happen now Hormuz tanker escort likely by the end of the month You will see US working with other countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz Short term disruption is needed for long term security Russia is not getting sanctions

In the opening days of the Iran war, there was something of a shock in markets but then markets settled into the idea that it would be a temporary disruption, with oil prices retreating afterwards. That was exactly what Trump said as he outlined a 4-5 week timeline, and affirmed when he later said the

A container ship near the UAE was hit by an unidentified projectile causing a small fire, adding to rising maritime security incidents in Gulf shipping lanes. Summary: A container ship was struck by an unknown projectile 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in the UAE. The strike caused a small onboard fire. All crew

Prior month housing starts 1.387M Housing starts for January 1.487M vs 1.348M last month Building permits 1.376M vs 1.410M estimate Prior month 1.455M Housing Completions for January: Housing completions (Jan): 1.527M annual rate, +4.8% vs Dec (1.457M) YoY comparison: -7.5% vs Jan 2025 (1.651M) Single-family completions: 970K, -1.0% vs Dec (980K) Multifamily (5+ units): 532K

The AUDUSD is moving lower today as risk-off sentiment spreads across global markets. U.S. stocks and global equities are pushing lower, while oil prices are surging—currently up roughly 8.8% on the day. In that environment, the U.S. dollar is gaining across the board against the major currencies, with the AUDUSD leading the declines, down about

The USD is trading in a mixed and mostly range-bound fashion to start the North American session. The dollar is firmer against the EUR and GBP, with EURUSD and GBPUSD edging lower, while the greenback is softer against the JPY after pushing toward 2026 highs earlier and finding willing sellers on the test. In the

WTI crude oil is now up 10% and has risen above the highs from Asian trading. Britain’s Defence Secretary says “it’s clear Iran is likely laying mines” in the Strait of Hormuz. That’s an odd phrasing that indicates both clarity and uncertainty. I guess we won’t really know if there are mines until: 1) Iran

Trump considers invoking emergency powers to revive offshore oil production in California as the Iran conflict pushes crude prices higher. Summary: President Trump is preparing to invoke the Defense Production Act to revive offshore oil production in southern California. The move would ease permitting and potentially override some state restrictions. Houston-based Sable Offshore Corp. is

Prior was 213K (revised to 214K) initial jobless claims 213K vs vs 215K est 4 week moving average 212K vs 216K last week Continuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expected Prior 1.868M revised to 1.871M Steady. No Hire. No Fire – at least in this series. WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE? The US Jobless Claims indicator

Trump yesterday told tanker operators to “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz. A US-owned and Greek-owned tanker decided to try and they were hit by explosive RC boats and are now in flames. That has renewed talk about naval escorts through the strait but France said yesterday and it will take

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel. Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

India’s inflation rate increases to 3.2% in February, slightly above consensus India reportedly sees first oil vessel reach its port since the US-Iran conflict started US futures step with caution as Middle East conflict drags on The S&P 500 bias turns bearish again as traders don’t buy Trump’s jawboning anymore GBPUSD rejects a major trendline

Says oil will be coming down Says the US has hit 28 mine ships They’ve hit Iran’s leadership twice We’ve heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through. At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates in March and May as rising energy prices and strong domestic data keep inflation risks elevated. Earlier: ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate hike as oil shock lifts inflation risks Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and

Summary: Two oil tankers were attacked in the northern Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait. One vessel near Umm Qasr caught fire following what appears to be a deliberate strike. A second tanker off Kuwait suffered an explosion and onboard fire. Early reports suggest the use of explosive drones or unmanned boats. The incidents highlight rising

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The closest one that could factor into play are the ones for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. That being said, the fact remains that there is a bigger influence on price action currently. And that is oil

Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to safeguard supply as its heavy reliance on imported petroleum leaves the country exposed to global energy disruptions. Summary: Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to ensure adequate supply. The policy allows fuel from more global refineries to enter the market during disruptions. Australia imports

Container ship hit by projectile near UAE port of Jebel Ali Australia allows higher sulphur fuel imports to protect supply security Drone strikes hit Oman energy facility, vessels evacuate Mina Al Fahal terminal Fitch warns rising local government debt could narrow China’s fiscal headroom Reuters says that Global shipper CMA CGM resumes bookings from Gulf

BoJ Governor Ueda warns currency weakness could intensify inflation risks as higher oil prices and a weaker yen threaten to fuel cost-push inflation in Japan. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that foreign exchange movements are increasingly influencing inflation. He said the yen’s impact on prices is larger than in the past, potentially

Expectations for an RBA rate hike on March 17 are strengthening as oil-driven inflation risks grow and major banks including ANZ join forecasts for tighter policy. Summary: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation. He said there will be “genuine policy debate”

Iran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel. Its forces hit merchant shipping / oil tankers: Reports of tanker attack in southern Iraq Oil price leaps higher on news of 2 tankers attacked in the Gulf The oil tanker attacks were carried out by Iranian boats laden with explosives. At

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a global stockpile drawdown. Separately, intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s government remains stable despite weeks of bombardment. Summary: The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move is part of a 400 million barrel coordinated release by the

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 24.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK housing demand weakened in February as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices raised fears mortgage rates could remain elevated. Summary: The RICS house price balance fell to -12 in February, weaker than January’s -10 and the -9 expected by economists. The survey indicates more respondents reporting falling prices than rising ones. New buyer enquiries