The Indian rupee weakened to a fresh record low on Monday despite apparent intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), underscoring persistent pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and adverse global financial conditions. The rupee fell as far as 90.56 per dollar, its weakest level on record, before paring some losses to trade around […]

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Swiss PPI and the Eurozone Industrial Production. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted. As a reminder, the

UK home asking prices fell by more than is typical for the time of year in early December, according to property website Rightmove, highlighting a subdued housing market around last month’s government budget. Rightmove said average asking prices for newly listed homes dropped 1.8% month-on-month in the four weeks to December 6, a steeper fall

KEY POINTS: Japanese Yen is the strongest major currency today Better than expected Tankan data added support for the rate hike BoJ wage growth assessment was positive The market is pricing an 83% probability of a BoJ rate hike on Friday US NFP and CPI likely to steal the show FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The USD

OPTION EXPIRIES: EUR/USD 1.1600 (EUR 6.15 bn) USD/JPY 156.50 (US$ 1.54 bn) 156.00 (US$ 1.06 bn) 155.00 (US$ 914.02 mn) GBP/USD 1.3500 (GBP 1.14 bn) 1.3150 (GBP 1.03 bn) USD/CHF 0.8100 (US$ 890.42 mn) 0.8000 (US$ 355.00 mn) 0.7950 (US$ 410.69 mn) USD/CAD 1.4010 (US$ 515.94 mn) AUD/USD 0.6650 (AUD 1.06 bn) 0.6565 (AUD 843.74

Key Takeaways for S&P 500 Prop Traders Today Market Context: S&P 500 futures (ES) and Micro E-minis (MES) are stabilizing following the high-volume selloff on December 12. orderFlow Intel: On the bigger view of the daily timeframe, our proprietary sentiment score currently sits at -3 (Mild Bearish), suggesting the market has accepted lower prices rather

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Australia’s Fortescue has agreed to acquire the remaining 64% stake in Alta Copper, valuing the Toronto-listed copper developer at C$139 million (US$101 million), as it steps up its exposure to the copper market. Fortescue, via its Nascent Exploration unit, is offering C$1.40 per share in cash, representing a 14.8% premium to Alta Copper’s last closing

China’s economy showed signs of stabilisation and gradual improvement in November, but authorities warned that external headwinds and persistent domestic imbalances continue to weigh on the outlook, signalling a readiness to step up policy support. Speaking after the release of November activity data, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said economic conditions

Over the weekend two assholes shot and killed 16 people at Bondi Beach in Sydney. The beach is a source of joy and celebration for Australians. Not this weekend though. Sydney’s Jewish community were celebrating the first day of Hanukkah. Peacefully. A father and son pair of terrorists then shot and killed at least 16

China’s onshore yuan strengthened to its firmest level in more than a year on Monday, even as fresh economic data underscored the challenge policymakers face in reviving domestic demand and rebalancing the world’s second-largest economy. The yuan rose (USD/CNY lower) to 7.0510 per dollar, its strongest level since October 8, 2024, supported by steady official

China Vanke fails to win approval to delay $284 million bond payment. China Vanke, one of the country’s largest state-backed property developers, said in a Hong Kong stock exchange filing on Monday that it failed to secure bondholder approval to delay a bond payment due the same day. The rejection followed a three-day vote that

Ukraine has signalled a major shift in its war aims, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offering to abandon Kyiv’s long-held ambition of joining NATO as peace talks with U.S. envoys showed signs of progress in Berlin. Zelenskiy held more than five hours of discussions on Sunday with U.S. representatives, including Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared

Japanese firms cited easing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and resilient demand in high-tech sectors as key factors supporting business sentiment, according to comments from a senior Bank of Japan official on the December Tankan survey. The BOJ official said companies pointed to a smaller-than-feared impact from U.S. tariffs, improved cost pass-through, and robust demand

iRobot, the maker of Roomba robot vacuums, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after reaching a restructuring agreement that hands control of the company to its main supplier and lender, Shenzhen Picea Robotics. The Massachusetts-based company filed in Delaware on December 14. Under the plan, Shenzhen Picea will receive 100% of the equity in the

The Japanese yen has begun to recover from initial post-data weakness following the release of the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan survey and subsequent comments from a BOJ official, as markets increasingly lean toward the possibility of a policy rate hike later this week. The Tankan survey showed corporate sentiment holding up better than expected,

Kevin Hassett, President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, pushed back on concerns that he would compromise Federal Reserve independence if appointed as the next Fed chair. Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Hassett said the president would exert no influence over interest-rate decisions under his leadership, stressing that policy would remain driven by

China’s finance ministry said it plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds next year, with proceeds earmarked to support key national strategies and security-related initiatives. In a statement released on Saturday, the ministry said funds will also be used to finance large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs, following a meeting to implement decisions

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has filed civil proceedings in the High Court against ASB Bank, alleging breaches of core obligations under the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Act. The RBNZ said the breaches date back to at least December 2019 and relate to failures to meet fundamental compliance requirements under

South Korea will extend its bond market stabilisation programmes through next year, as authorities seek to contain financial market risks stemming from shifting monetary policy conditions at home and abroad, as well as rising government bond issuance. The Financial Services Commission (FSC) said on Monday that bond and short-term money market stabilisation funds totalling 37.6

It’s a very active session on the event calendar, notably: Bank of Japan Tankan Economic activity data from China for November, including industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate a senior Reserve Bank of Australia official is speaking You can see in the screenshot below what is expected for the releases. Taking what I have

Weekly Price Action Crude oil futures settled the week on a soft note, closing at $57.44, down $0.16 or -0.28% for the day. For the week, the commodity saw significant selling pressure: Weekly Change: Down -4.54%, a decline of $3.12. The Highs: The week’s high was reached on Monday at $60.30. The Lows: Sellers pushed

Bullish Momentum Extends for a Third Week The AUDUSD moved higher for the third consecutive week, extending to its highest level since September 17th. This upside momentum began after the pair bottomed on November 21 near the high of a swing area between 0.6407 and 0.6424. During this run, the pair successfully cleared a series

Stock Market Wrap-Up: Tech Sector Tumbles, Dow Hangs On WSJ: Trump leaning toward Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed Crude oil settling lower by 0.28% European indices close lower but not bad relatively speaking Tech Wreck: Stocks continue to tumble with the NASDAQ now down -1.78% Fed’s Hammack: Balancing both sides of

A Week of Two Halves The USDJPY has settled the North American session marginally higher on the day, capping off a week defined by up-and-down volatility. The Lows: Sellers controlled the early action, pushing the price to a weekly low of 154.89 during Monday’s session. The Highs: Buyers fought back mid-week, driving the pair to

End of Day Market Summary: Tech Sector Weighs on Wall Street US stocks closed lower to end the trading week, as a sharp selloff in the technology sector dragged down the broader market. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to secure a gain for the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq succumbed to profit-taking

In an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal, President Trump revealed he is leaning toward nominating either former Fed governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that his choice must be willing to lower interest rates and consult with him on monetary policy.

A Strong 3-Week Recovery The NZDUSD is up for the third week in a row after bottoming on November 21 at 0.55758. The move to the upside has taken the pair to a high this week of 0.5830, representing a significant recovery over the last 16 trading days: Price Change: +254 pips Percentage Change: +4.56%

SNB Policy: Rates on Hold, “Expansive” Stance Remains The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept rates unchanged earlier this week at 0.0%. Following the decision, comments from SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel—combined with technical resistance—helped push the USDCHF lower (strengthening the CHF). Key Takeaways from Chairman Schlegel: Policy Stance: Schlegel stressed that the current stance remains “expansive”

Leaked internal benchmarks for GPT-5.2 “Thinking” have been posted by Sam Altman, and quite frankly, the numbers are ridiculous. We aren’t talking about incremental gains here. For some reference: AIME 2025: 100.0%. It solved it. This is a big math test and it means that competition math is effectively “completed” for this model. ARC-AGI-2: This

Rate cuts by year-end Fed 2026: 54 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE 2026: 61 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC 2026: 25 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB 2026: 10 bps (100% probability of no

With the Dow industrial average down -0.47%, the S&P down -1.36% and the NASDAQ index down -2.0%, the European declines today are modest. The UK’s FTSE 100 led the declines, likely weighed down by earlier reports that the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in October. A snapshot of the closing levels shows the: European Market Close

Here is a snapshot of the US stock market today, Friday, December 12, 2025, highlighting the “Tech Wreck” narrative driving the major declines you are seeing. Market Summary: The Great Rotation Intensifies The divergence in the market has widened significantly today. Investors are aggressively rotating out of high-flying technology and AI stocks—sparked by disappointments from

An earthquake shook up the Pacific coast of Japan approximately 130 km NE of Kuji. There is no damage expected but a tsunami warning has been issued. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The stock market today paints a diverse picture, with tech giants and semiconductor players experiencing contrasting fates. While stalwart technology names remain largely stable, the semiconductor sector displays a mixed performance, suggesting a fluctuating narrative within a crucial industry. 🔍 Sector Overview Technology & Software: Leading tech stock Microsoft (MSFT) modestly declined by 0.30%, maintaining

The price of silver is sprinting to yet another record, surging approximately $2.00 (3.40%) on the day. This latest move caps a historic run for the metal, which is now up over 120% year-to-date. Silver’s explosive move to over $64.00 per ounce in 2025 is being driven by a “perfect storm” of five fundamental factors:

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is giving her perspective this morning following Wednesday’s split FOMC decision. While the committee voted to lower rates by 25 basis points, the decision was far from unanimous, highlighting a deepening divide among policymakers regarding the path forward for inflation and the labor market. The Split Decision: A Rare 9-to-3

KEY POINTS: The Fed delivered on expectations, but Powell sounded dovish US-India trade talks concluded on a positive note, although there wasn’t any major breakthrough India’s Chief Economic Adviser sees a deal now closer than ever and could be reached by March Nifty 50 rises back above the key 25,900 level, shifting the short-term bias

Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed President) Summary: Schmid, another dissenter, takes a hawkish stance driven by persistent inflation concerns. He views the economy as having momentum and the job market as balanced, which contrasts with the idea that employment is at risk. His primary worry is that inflation remains “too hot,” and he questions whether

Order flow perspective as price tests a key downside level As market rotation may be intensifying and silver, the new black in metals (for quite some time now) skyrockets to a new high (don’t forget my long term target for silver), I wanted to access investingLive’s orderFlow Intel to see if the early selling today

Fed’s Goolsbee is speaking on CNBC and further explaining his decision to keep rates unchanged at the reason FOMC rate decision where the Fed decided to cut rates by 25 basis points.. He was 1 of 2 dissenters who voted for no change in policy. Fed’s Miran voted for a larger 50 basis point cut.

The Great Rotation Continues The rotation in the US stock market is gaining momentum today, creating a tale of two markets. On one side, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading higher, finding support from major industrial and cyclical stocks that are attracting fresh capital. On the other side, the big technology heavyweights that have

The USDCAD saw a slew of economic data come out earlier today, painting a stronger-than-expected picture for the Canadian economy. Building permits for October were much stronger than expectations, surging 14.9% versus the forecasted -0.9% decline. Additionally, Capacity Utilization for the 3rd quarter came in at 78.5% (versus 77.6% revised from the last quarter), and

In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK GDP, although we will also get the final inflation readings for Germany, France and Spain. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. The UK October GDP is expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% prior, while the Y/Y estimate

Currency and Bond Market Overview The US Dollar is trading marginally higher today, stabilizing after two days of declines. Treasury yields have also ticked up to start the North American session, with the 10-year yield rising 3.7 basis points, retracing a similar fall from last week. The Japanese Yen and Central Bank Watch USD/JPY: The

KEY POINTS: India’s inflation rate Y/Y increased to 0.71% vs 0.70% expected in November The prior release saw inflation falling to a record low of 0.25% The RBI’s inflation target is 4% with a +/-2% tolerance band Inflation remains far below the central bank’s target INFLATION REPORT: India’s inflation rate increased to 0.71% in November

KEY POINTS: The Fed delivered on expectations cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cuts Fed Chair Powell sounded dovish by downplaying inflation risk and emphasising labour market weakness Gold broke out of the two-week long consolidation and extended the gains as momentum increased FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold finally broke out

After the fireworks from the Australian jobs report yesterday, the schedule for the Friday Asian session (Thursday evening US time) is looking decidedly thin. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel for data, so don’t expect too many idiosyncratic catalysts to drive the majors. The action kicks off early in the session at 02:00

India’s inflation rate increases to 0.71% in November, but the Rupee continues to bleed Interest rate expectations turn more hawkish for most major central banks except the Fed Gold extends gains after key technical breakout, putting all-time highs in sight Nifty 50 recovers some losses on dovish Powell, but it’s not out of the woods

KEY POINTS: UK GDP fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 The 0.1% fall in the three months to October 2025 was the first three monthly fall in real GDP since December 2023 GDP in October is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% British Pound weakened following the GDP release GDP REPORT:

OPTION EXPIRIES: EUR/USD 1.1800 (EUR 737.28 mn) 1.1755 (EUR 565.70 mn) 1.1700 (EUR 664.57 mn) 1.1600 (EUR 935.93 mn) USD/JPY 155.00 (US$ 1.52 bn) GBP/USD 1.3415 (GBP 421.17 mn) 1.3250 (GBP 781.13 mn) USD/CHF 0.8000 (US$ 350.67 mn) 0.7700 (US$ 300.00 mn) USD/CAD 1.3940 (US$ 600.00 mn) 1.3800 (US$ 652.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.6650 (AUD 643.09

It is two days after the FOMC rate decision where the voting members decided by a 9-3 vote to cut rates by 25 basis points with 2 voting to keep rates unchanged and 1 (Miran) voted for a 50 basis point cut. Miran. Fed’s Goolsbee and Paulson are out with comments as to their choices

When Mark Carney pulled off an improbable election win this year, he didn’t earn a majority in parliament. That means his government could fall at any time, but he came very close. The Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a 172 seat majority. In early November, Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor

Trump on Venezuela: It’s going to be starting on land pretty soon Trump: Probably only one winner in AI, China or the USA Japan October industrial production +1.5% y/y vs +1.6% prelim Canada’s Carney inches closer to a majority as Conservative switches parties Magnitude 6.7 earthquake leads to 1m tsunami in Japan GPT-5.2 is looking

The major U.S. equity indices finished the session mixed, reflecting a sharp divergence between traditional blue-chip strength and renewed anxiety in high-growth technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed at fresh record highs, supported by strength in industrials, financials, and defensive sectors. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the

This is something of a formality but the Federal Reserve board of governors has input on the regional Presidents. In any case, there was unanimous approval of all of them for five year terms. Now this could have been more contentions if Trump was able to stack the governors, who then could have stacked the

Will make a signing related to AI Forget trying to get approval for 50 different states Sacks: Order gives tools to push back on most onerous state regulations We are taking steps for a single national standard on AI The idea of dominance is that AI will be iterative, so the latest generation of AI

Prior was +2.0% Prelim was +1.6% Capacity utilization +3.3% vs +2.5% prelim Japanese factory data this week has been firm, showing that the trade war isn’t a problem so far. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi see exploded volumes on everything from Fed rates to geopolitical conflicts, a recent incident involving the Ukraine war highlights a critical vulnerability in the system. On November 15, a niche market on Polymarket regarding the Russian advance on the town of Myrnohrad exposed the pitfalls of relying on

The US dollar is down on most fronts this year but it came after years of gains. The team at Scotiabank says don’t get too comfortable with USD longs as the worst is yet to come. In their Focus On 2026 outlook, Scotia’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret are sticking to their guns: they see

Major stock indices end mixed as Dow and S&P hit new records.NASDAQ falls on tech weakness Federal Reserve announces reappointment of regional Presidents Silver Skyrockets to Record Highs Over $64; Gold Chases $4,300 WH Trump on Fed: More should be done. The US treasury auctioned $22B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of

It’s a strong day for Japanese stocks as they ratchet higher to close out the week. The Nikkei 225 is up 1.5% and threatening the December high. It’s a quick bounce back after the risk rout in Asia yesterday. The market has been trading sideways for the past six weeks after a sharp rise in

The US is clearly trying to provoke some kind of conflict, if not a war. Trump wants regime change in Venezuela for some reason. That said, Trump likes to make threats so he could be trying to bluff Maduro into leaving the country. Yesterday, the US seized an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude. On Ukraine,

Trump news today: Administration sanctions Maduro’s nephews and 6 ships carrying Venezuelan oil Bessent commented that Maduro group in criminal associations are flooding the US with drugs that is poisoning the American people Maduro and cronies have a choice: stop the drug trafficking stop the corruption, stop the dictatorship and leave the country. ON Ukraine:

The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773% The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774% The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time “report card” on the market’s appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free

Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%. Current Market Snapshot The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve

Key Takeaways: GDPNow Upgrade: The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 2025 GDP estimate to 3.6% (up from 3.5%). Trade to the Rescue: A surge in net exports offset weaker government spending and private investment numbers. Fed Optimism: Federal Reserve officials revised their 2026 GDP growth projections sharply higher to 2.3%. Productivity Boom: Chair Powell points

The calendar is looking a bit top-heavy for the Thursday session in Asia. While we have some Japanese flow data and a check-in on the UK housing market, the main event is inarguable — the Australian labor market report. We kick things off at 2145 GMT with New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for Q3. The prior

As expected, the FOMC pulled the trigger on a 25 basis point cut today, bringing the Fed Funds target range down to 3.50% – 3.75%. Looking ahead, the market sees a pause in January followed by a slow grind lower. Here is the clean breakdown of the implied probabilities: January 28 meeting Pricing: -5.5 bps

Sector Overview The US stock market painted a mixed picture today. Leading the charge was the financial sector, with notable gains seen in Visa, up by 1.42%, and JPMorgan Chase holding steady. Meanwhile, the technology sector faced headwinds, particularly within semiconductors. Stocks like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices plunged by 2.15% and 2.63% respectively, contributing

SNB Holds Rates at 0.00% as Inflation Forecasts Edge Lower Key Takeaways (Neutral to Dovish Tilt): Policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, with the SNB reiterating readiness to intervene in FX markets when necessary. Inflation forecasts trimmed across 2026–2027, reinforcing subdued price pressures and a low-inflation environment. Economic outlook improves slightly, supported by lower U.S. tariffs

Key Takeaways U.S. yields continue to fall after the Fed’s rate cut, reinforcing a dovish market tone and weighing heavily on the USD. EURUSD extends higher, breaking multiple technical resistance levels, including the Oct. 17 swing high and the 61.8% retracement. USD broadly weaker, down against every major currency except AUD; EUR is one of

Australia November employment -21.3K vs +20.0K expected Mexico approves tariffs as high as 50% taiff on Chinese and Asian imports UK RICS house price survey -16 vs -21 expected New Zealand Q3 manufacturing sales +1.1% vs -2.9% prior Japan Q4 business survey index +4.7% vs +3.8% RBC forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and

CentFX (https://centfx.com/), a fast-growing provider of digital trading and financial technology solutions, is pleased to announce its participation in the upcoming iFX Expo, taking place on February 11–12, 2026, in Dubai. As a Silver-level exhibitor, CentFX will be present at Booths 26 and 27, where the company will unveil its latest advancements aimed at redefining

KEY POINTS Indian Rupee fell to a new record low US-India trade talks ongoing India inflation data to be released tomorrow FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The USD weakened across all the major currencies following the Fed’s decision as the central bank communicated a higher bar for further rate cuts, but Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish

A line by line comparison of the October FOMC statement to the December statement. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting as expected. The vote was 9-3 with 2 members voting to keep rates unchanged, and 1 voting to cut by 50 basis points. Below is a line-by -line

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.25%. Key points from the Bank of Canada statement: BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady stance as inflation remains near target and the economy continues to adjust to global trade disruptions. Global conditions remain mixed: major economies are resilient despite US trade

STATEMENT Prior 0.00% Willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary Sees 2025 inflation at 0.2% (0.2% prior) Sees 2026 inflation at 0.3% (0.5% prior) Sees 2027 inflation at 0.6% (0.7% prior) Sees 2025 GDP at around 1.5% ( 1.0-1.5% prior) Sees 2026 GDP at around 1.0% (1.0% prior) Inflationary pressure is

KEY POINTS The SNB is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.00% FX communication to remain unchanged To downplay the recent miss in inflation data To upgrade future outlook due to lower US tariffs and less uncertainty The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.00%. The recent inflation

The U.S. dollar is moving lower at the start of the North American session after early-session gains were fully erased. As U.S. traders entered, the tone shifted decisively, with downward pressure on yields helping to weigh on the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 3.3 basis points at 4.131%, a notable pullback considering

Powell signals neutral policy stance as non tariff driven inflation fades Fed Powell:Layoffs, hiring remain low. Rates are now in a plausible range of neutral. The line-by-line comparison of the October and the December FOMC statements The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50% to 3.75% White House economic advisor Hassett: Fed

Overview The Federal Reserve will release its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, with markets broadly expecting a 25-basis-point cut. While a cut is anticipated, the real market-moving impact will come from the wording of the statement and Chair Powell’s press conference, which traders will analyze as a proxy for the stance of the full

In 2025, the Trump administration took on the world with its trade but 2026 will be about its neighbors. There is a sense that the trade war has stabilized and hopefully it has but the year ahead will be all about the USMCA trade agreement. Mexico and Canada represent nearly 30% of US imports and

U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound, but Holiday Distortions Cloud the Picture U.S. initial jobless claims rebounded to 236K, above the 220K expected by economists. The prior week was also revised higher to 192K from 191K, though that earlier reading remains unusually low. It’s important to recall that last week’s sharp drop to 191K was widely viewed

In the European session, we have the Swiss National Bank (SNB) releasing its monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.00% and not signal anything in terms of forward guidance. Despite the disappointing inflation data in the recent months, SNB members reiterated that the bar for negative

SNB Chairman Schlegel: SNB policy to stoke inflation slowly in the next quarters SNB leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected in December FX option expiries for 11 December 10am New York cut What are the main events for today? It’s been an empty session in terms of data releases and notable newsflow. The

Dow Jones Technical Analysis Video My technical analysis video comes before the quick FOMC review for some of the readers that may be interesting in that. Those that have already seen my videos on investingLive.com may know that I like to try to keep the charts real simple, yet effective. This means that I do

It was a fun rid but S&P 500 futures are now back where they were before the FOMC decision. It was a 50-point rise and fall, or about 0.7% in each direction. If you want to blame anyone, blame Oracle for the decline as Nasdaq futures are underperforming down 1.1% on an 11% share price

KEY POINTS Stuck in a range between 4250 resistance and 4150 support Medium-term bias remains bullish, short-term bias to be decided by NFP/CPI Fed’s decision mostly as expected, Fed Chair Powell a bit dovish FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold remains stuck in a range between the 4250 resistance and the 4150 support as market participants continue to

Prior was -19 If you squint, you can start to see a turn upward. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We will continue to observe the situation and adjust monetary policy where necessary to keep price stability Low interest rate is effective through the exchange rate Midterm inflation pressure is practically unchanged since the previous quarter We remain ready to intervene in the currency market as necessary Our monetary policy remains expansive Monetary policy also

Speaking on Fox News: Fed has plenty of room to cut rates. Probably will need to do some more. Data could support 50 basis point cut You could definitely get to 50 or even more. The president will make his decision on Fed chair in a week or so. He is honored to be a

Introduction: What Is Crypto Trading? Crypto trading involves buying and selling digital currencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, to profit from their price fluctuations. Unlike traditional markets like shares or foreign exchange (forex), the cryptocurrency market operates on blockchain technology and is open all the time, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. In

The U.S. market isn’t in a panic, and there are no immediate strategic threats, aside from concerns about a potential AI bubble, but several restraining factors remain. Beyond broader systemic issues, such as the country’s rapidly growing debt and the rising cost of servicing it, the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on the

he numbers are out for Oracle’s Q2 fiscal 2026, and the market reaction is ugly. Shares are down more than 10% in after-hours trading and still struggling to find a base as $200 gave way. Here is the data: EPS: $2.26 vs $1.64 expected Revenue: $16.06bn vs $16.19bn expected Cloud Infrastructure Revenue: +68% y/y Software

It’s all one trade at the moment. AUD/USD is unwinding the post-Fed gains, just like stocks. Asia tried to push the moves further but soon ran out of gas. That led to profit taking and was helped along by the usual AI-overspend theme as Oracle shares were wrecked after earnings. The Australian dollar is particularly

Prior was 42.2K Full time -56.5K vs +55.3K prior Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected (prior 4.3%) Participation rate 66.7% vs 67.0% prior The RBA decision was yesterday but Bullard tipped a more-hawkish stance and the market saw a 33% chance of rate hike as soon as March but we will need to mark that

Mexico’s Senate has approved tariffs of 5-50% on imports from China and other parts of Asia. The duties will hit Asian countries that don’t have trade deals with Mexico, including China, India, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. Automobiles (Light Vehicles): 50% (up from 20%) Textiles and Clothing generallly 35% (this was a big focus of

Prior was +3.8% The trade war isn’t hurting manufacturing and the latest yen weakness won’t hurt as well (at least on the export side, it’s not so great for importers). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD 1.1800 (EUR 2.20 bn) 1.1710 (EUR 1.39 bn) 1.1610 (EUR 4.59 bn) USD/JPY 158.00 (US$ 919.98 mn) 156.00 (US$ 1.24 bn) 155.00 (US$ 876.98 mn) GBP/USD 1.3250 (GBP 325.77 mn) USD/CHF 0.7960 (US$ 650.00 mn) 0.7900 (US$ 653.00 mn) 0.7800 (US$ 451.26 mn) USD/CAD 1.4000 (US$ 1.05 bn) 1.3950 (US$ 1.18 bn) AUD/USD 0.6750

The precious metals analysts at RBC Capital Markets are out with a massive call, forecasting more upside for gold over the next two years. Despite gold already ripping 60% higher year-to-date in 2025, RBC believes the rally has continued legs. They argue that central bank buying and investment demand have fundamentally reinforced gold’s value as

Fed Chair Powell tapped the brakes on expectations for continued easing, noting that the policy rate is now within a plausible range of neutral. Throughout the press conference, he repeatedly emphasized that the Fed is “well-positioned” on policy, inflation, and the labor market—language suggesting confidence in the current stance. While Powell acknowledged that upside risks

Fed Powell is giving his opening remarks and says: Purchase of shorter-term securities to support effective control of policy rates. Consumer spending solid, business fixed investment expanding. Housing sector remains week effects of the shutdown should be offset by higher growth next quarter from reopening. Layoffs, hiring remain low September labor market releases showed unemployment

Prior was -2.9% This is a nice rebound after poor Q2 reading. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is “well-positioned” on inflation, growth, employment, and overall policy—language that markets interpreted as a signal of confidence in the current stance. While acknowledging that inflation remains elevated, Powell noted that underlying inflation would already be near 2% were it not for tariff effects, which he described as

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. The full statement from the Fed. Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has

US indices close mixed. Russell 2000 rates to new intraday record level US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Highlights Trump’s commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine Crude oil futures settle at $58.25 RBNZ signals updated – driven approach as policy Path remains uncertain U.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of

5 key bullet points: BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, judging it appropriate to keep inflation near 2% during a period of structural trade adjustment. US tariffs are hitting key sectors, but the overall Canadian economy remains more resilient than expected. CPI inflation stays contained near 2%, with core around 2½–3%, and temporary near-term

Press conference following the Bank of Canada rate decision has started. BOC Gov. TIff Macklem and Senior Deputy Gov. are answering the questions from the press: Markets can count on us taking decisions one at a time. We will be assessing data relative to our outlook. Asked about statistics, Canada revisions to GDP says that

Key Takeaways Bank of Canada expected to hold rates at 2.25%, maintaining a steady easing path after multiple cuts since mid-2024. USDCAD sits right on the pivotal 50% retracement (1.38394) after a sharp jobs-driven selloff and a two-day rebound. Midpoint level sets a perfect launch point: dovish BoC = upside toward major MAs; hawkish tone

Below is the comparison of the October rates decision to the December rate decision: The Bank of Canada today reducedheld its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points toat 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and

The major US stock indices are trading mixed with the NASDAQ index lower. The S&P and Dow industrial average or higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also higher in on pace for a record close (above 2531.13). A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average up 241 points or 0.51% at 47801.63. S&P

No need to change rates with inflation at target Data suggests inflation and GDP risks are fairly balanced I feel December rate decision won’t be difficult This has been the core ECB message for a long time now. The central bank is not expected to cut at all for years, on the contrary, the market

China November CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% expected China likely to cut RRR rate next year – report Japan PM Takaichi asked about rising yields, says closely watching market moves Zelensky signals Ukaine’s answer to Trumps peace plan will come Wednesday Trump: I hear that autopen might have signed the appointments of Fed board governors Japan

Prior was +0.2% m/m CPI -0.1% vs +0.2% exp PPI -2.2% vs -2.0% y/y This is a step in the right direction but the PPI still shows falling prices and the m/m CPI. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices have been struggling in part due to hopes for peace. Indications from Trump and Russia were that sanctions relief would come with any deal and that would allow Russian crude to flow more freely. As for the chances of a deal, they’re low but peace after a long war always seems impossible until

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 2.25%. Key points from the statement: BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady stance as inflation remains near target and the economy continues to adjust to global trade disruptions. Global conditions remain mixed: major economies are resilient despite US trade protectionism, with strong US

Prior quarter of 0.9% Employment cost index 0.8% versus 0.9% estimate. Employment benefits 0.8% versus 0.7% prior quarter Wages 0.8% versus 1.0% per quarter YoY data shows: Civilian worker compensation: +3.5% Wages & salaries: +3.5% Benefits: +3.5% Private industry compensation: +3.5% Wages & salaries: +3.6% Benefits: +3.5% Real (inflation-adjusted) wages: +0.6% State & local government

Yesterday, the RBA held rates steady, but Governor Bullock delivered a hawkish-leaning message, lifting rate-hike odds into early 2026. AUDUSD tested multi-day resistance near 0.6648–0.6654, but sellers repeatedly capped gains. The rising 100-hour moving average at 0.6632 remains the key near-term support, repeatedly attracting dip buyers. Range remains tight, with buyers and sellers battling between

Sector Overview Technology Sector: The technology sector displayed mixed performance today. Microsoft (MSFT) experienced a significant dip of 1.82%, hinting at possible investor concerns in software infrastructure. Meanwhile, Palantir (PLTR) surged by 1.93%, indicating strong investor confidence in AI-driven solutions. Semiconductor Sector: There’s light at the end of the tunnel for semiconductors. Nvidia (NVDA) managed

Key Data Summary (Actual vs. Estimate vs. Prior) Crude Stock: -1.812M vs -2.310M est. (Prior +0.574M) Distillate Stock: +2.502M vs +1.943M est. (Prior +2.059M) Gasoline Stock: +6.397M vs +2.764M est. (Prior +4.518M) Crude Imports: +0.212M vs Prior -0.470M (no estimate) Refinery Utilization: +0.4% vs 0.3% est. (Prior +1.8%) Crude Cushing Stocks: +0.308M vs Prior -0.457M

Fed preview: a “hawkish cut” is expected but here’s what could surprise the market FX option expiries for 10 December 10am New York cut ECB’s Villeroy: the wise thing would be to maintain ECB rates at current level ECB’s Simkus: rates can probably stay at 2% at further meetings BoC preview: the central bank is

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda. Given the looming Fed’s decision, the price action today will likely be rangebound into the event. In the American session, we have the BoC and FOMC monetary policy decisions. The BoC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the caveats to further

KEY POINTS: All eyes on the Fed’s decision today More hawkish than expected decision is likely to trigger a selloff More dovish than expected one should support silver further Key near-term support around the 59.00 level FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver continues to break records as Fed rate cut bets after Fed’s Williams comments on November 21

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, but with a hawkish tilt. That stance reflects lingering uncertainty in the data — uncertainty that should begin to resolve next week

KEY POINTS: Fed’s decision could weigh on global risk sentiment The price is trading below the key 25,900 resistance zone Near-term technical outlook more bearish FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nifty 50 recently erased all the gains triggered by the RBI’s rate cut and extended the losses further after some key technical breaks. Famous investor, Stanley Druckemiller,

Crude oil settles lower, slipping over 1% as sellers defend key technical resistance. 200-hour moving average caps the rally, reinforcing downside momentum. Swing-area support tested, raising the risk of further declines if broken. Crude oil futures finished the session at $58.25, a decline of $0.63 or -1.07%. The market briefly pushed higher early in the

We’ve got a bit of data to chew on to kick off the Tuesday session, with the focus squarely on Japan early on and China a bit later. It’s going to be an interesting start to the day. First up at the top of the hour, we get the Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index. It’s a

He’s been talking mostly about the French economy but touched on the ECB policy too now. Goes without saying that this is no news for the market as no rate cut is expected. The market has been actually starting to look for signs that the ECB could hike rates in 2026 or 2027. Right now,

Someone told me that Etheruem rally had no volume so I had to go and check that deeply. His claim? Some flashy instagram post. So I had to deep dive with orderFlow Intel. Ethereum futures exploded higher on December 9, pushing from the low 3,100s into the 3,409 zone before pulling back into the mid-3,300s.

Who is it going to be? The ‘couple’ number probably isn’t literal but it might suggest that not all 5 finalists get a crack. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump may be looking to stack the Fed. If Trump goes down this path it would be bearish for the US dollar and wildly bullish for precious metals and hard assets. The long end would hate it and there would be a big steepener. Biden appointed: Jefferson Barr Cook Kugler Kugler has already resigned and

KEY POINTS: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 3.50-3.75% The tone is expected to be more “hawkish” with clear signal of a pause and the bar for further cuts being higher We will get the Summary of Economic Projections and the Dot Plot at this decision

Silver continues to rally, it’s up 68-cents in Asia to $61.36, which is a fresh record high. Silver is turning into a retail fomo trade if it hasn’t already. And the thing about silver is that when it rallies, it can really rally. Trump talking (joking?) about vetoing Fed Governors due to Biden’s autopen certainly

USDINR slips below the 100-hour moving average, signaling early signs of weakening bullish momentum. Key support sits at the 89.7900 swing area, with sellers needing a break below to extend downside pressure. A move under the 200-hour moving average (89.7560) would mark a major shift, giving sellers clearer control for the first time since November

Fresh remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Breman highlight a continued emphasis on data dependency and policy flexibility as the economy evolves. • Important to look at all incoming data ahead of the next monetary policy meeting. • Will maintain a laser focus on the core mandate. • There is no preset course

KEY POINTS: BoC is expected to hold interest rates steady at 2.25% The central bank will likely scrap the caveats for further easing effectively marking the end of the easing cycle The market has fully priced in a rate hike in 2026, but the BoC is unlikely to validate that just yet Given the caveats

Important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflective fundamentals Will take appropriate action of excessive, disorderly moves At what point does some serious worry hit the Japanese debt market? It’s no fun losing money on 10-year notes day after day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Crude -4800K Prior was +2480K Gasoline +7000K Distillates +1000K Expectations for tomorrow’s EIA report Crude -2310K Gasoline +4518K Distillates +1943K WTI is struggling this week and finished lower by 49-cents on Tuesday. The crude number here is nice but that’s a fat build in gasoline and comes after a 4.5mb build in last week’s EIA

Donald Trump will kick off his final round of Fed chair interviews this week, according to the FT. The sources cited in the report — unnamed ‘senior administration officials’ — said Kevin Hassett remains the favorite. The gold and silver rally today was certainly helped out by the sentiment that a dovish Fed chair is

Prior was +2.7% m/m reading vs +0.3% exp Prior m/m reading was +0.4% The pricing on next week’s BOJ decision is 77% for a cut, that’s risen since last week when it was 66%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The yen is the top performer so far in Asian trading as it undoes some of yesterday’s damage. USD/JPY is down 30 pips to 156.57 and it was helped along by Japanese PM Takaichi who said they were closely watching market moves. She was mostly talking about rising yields but effectively, it’s two sides of

Ext migration and visitors +9.4% vs +9.6% prior Estimated migrant arrivals 2400 vs 1800 prior Not exactly blowing the doors off but the population is steadily rising and tourists continue to love New Zealand, aside from the long travel times. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We get Chinese CPI data later but the high estimate is +1.1% and the consensus is +0.7% so rate cuts shouldn’t be a surprise. The December Politburo meeting continued with the text on a “more proactive” fiscal policy and a “moderately loose” monetary policy. The newswire report says the report is from the local press.

It was a mixed day for the US equities with the Dow and S&P indices moving lower. The NASDAQ in the small-cap Russell 2000 moved marginally higher. For the Russell 2000, it traded intraday at a new record high, but closed about 4 point below its record high close reached last week. A snapshot of

Prior manufacturing +17 Non-manufacturing vs +27 prior This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Appreciated the opportunity to speak this morning with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko Discussion highlighted Trumps commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine. Discussed treasuries sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. Earlier today, Zelenskyy spoke and said: Wants to discuss restoration of Ukraine as part of peace plan preparation with US. Is ready to hold elections US

The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175% WI level at the time of the auction 4.175% Tail 0.0 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis points Bid to cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of2.51X DIrects 20.96% vs 6 month average of 20.5% Indirects

The White House economic advisor Hassett is speaking and says: Plenty of room for the Fed to cut rates Says that there is a play room to cut more than 25 basis points. Pres. Trump will make a choice but could change his mind Says that it’s important for the Fed chair to look at

Prior month 7.227M JOLTs job openings 7.670M vs 7.150M estimate October hires were little changed, holding at 5.1 million. The hire rate remained steady at 3.2%. No significant hiring shifts occurred across any major industries In October, total separations were little changed at 5.1 million and a 3.2% rate. Total separations fell in health care

Government data releases are catching up following the 46-day shutdown. November CPI arrives December 18, while December CPI and real earnings will be released on January 13. January jobs report shifts to January 9, restoring a near-normal schedule for labor-market data. As the government works its way out of the 46-day shutdown, the economic data

Artificial intelligence that sharpens your decision-making in the markets Financial service providers have been using algorithmic trading and automation tools for decades. Artificial intelligence (AI), with its capability to process large amounts of data and provide actionable insights, is likely to take trading to a whole new level. Although generative AI and LLMs are gaining

The latest yuan fix is out. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

European Indices End Mixed as Trading Winds Down The major European stock indices closed the session mixed, with performance varying across the region. Germany’s DEU40 led to the upside, gaining 0.49% at 24,162.66, while France’s CAC40 lagged, falling 0.69% to 8,052.52. The UK’s FTSE 100 (UKX) hovered near unchanged levels, slipping just 0.03% to 9,642.00.

The USD is mostly little changed to start the North American session. Looking at the changes vs the USD, the. EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF are all within a pip or so of unchanged on the day. The USDJPY is higher by 0.22% as the market continues its move to the upside after rebounding on Friday

NZDUSD Rides Risk Momentum After Hawkish RBA Decision The NZDUSD is trading higher today, supported in part by strength in its sister currency, AUDUSD, which surged after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a more hawkish-leaning decision. While the overall tone is bullish, the upside move has not been a straight line. Early in the

The Financial Times reports that Chinese regulators have been discussing ways to permit limited access to H200 chips. No final decision had been made yet. For context, Trump yesterday announced that the US will allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China. I don’t see this as something new as China has been implementing restrictions

Monthly ADP -32k Last weekly report -13.5K. The weekly 4-week average is 4.75K From ADP: For the four weeks ending November 22, 2025, U.S. private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER). Three times a month, ADP

EUR/USD 1.1760 (EUR 1.62 bn) 1.1600 (EUR 1.20 bn) 1.1500 (EUR 1.21 bn) USD/JPY 157.00 (US$ 325.47 mn) 155.50 (US$ 319.96 mn) GBP/USD 1.3400 (GBP 291.94 mn) 1.3250 (GBP 209.81 mn) USD/CHF 0.8040 (US$ 249.85 mn) USD/CAD 1.3950 (US$ 633.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.6635 (AUD 949.50 mn) 0.6500 (AUD 524.35 mn) NZD/USD 0.5775 (NZD 148.91 mn)

RBA holds rates but signals a hawkish shift, boosting expectations for a potential February rate hike if inflation stays elevated. AUDUSD breaks to multi-month highs, clearing key resistance at 0.6648 as bullish momentum accelerates after Governor Bullock’s comments. Next major upside targets sit at 0.66817–0.6706, with hourly support at the 100-hour moving average guiding short-term

Trump News: Taking action to protect farmers US will take small portion of tariff revenues to give it to farmers We will provide $12 billion in aid to farmers He spoke with Xi and he thinks China will buy even more soybeans than promised. He added: We willl take off a lot of environment rules

Trump: Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have to US Treasury Secretary Bessent We are still working on a trade deal with India: Crude oil futures settle at $58.88 Trump news: WIll provide 12 billion in aid to farmers AUDUSD Technicals: The AUDUSD is correcting lower ahead of the

Prior was +1.5% Total sales +1.4% y/y vs +1.6% prior A separate survey from Barclays put UK consumer spending down 1.1% in November, worse than -0.8% in October. It was also the worst y/y reading since Feb 2021. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Silver is on the run again with a gain of $1.50 or 2.57% and $59.64. The high price reached $59.74 so far. What are the technicals telling traders? A look at the daily chart. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows the price pressing up against a key topside trendline drawn from the October

In the lead-up to a major Federal Reserve decision, markets often display volatile behavior designed to shake out weak hands. Yesterday, Gold futures gave us a textbook example of this phenomenon around the psychological $4,200 level. Gold technical analysis: Were the bears just trapped? Seems so! In today’s gold technical analysis video, I take a

If data suggests inflation not slowing, that will be considered at February board meeting Board wants to give signal that risks have tilted to the upside The RBA has officially turned hawkish today and opened the door for rate hikes. That is of course conditional to the data with Governor Bullock stressing the January quarterly

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than the German trade balance report. Goes without saying that the data won’t matter at all for the market or the ECB. In the American session, the highlights include the weekly ADP data and the US Job Openings report. We had three negative

Energy sector surges while tech hits resistance: A look into today’s market dynamics The stock market presented a mixed yet intriguing picture today, with notable variation across sectors. While the energy sector soared based on robust performances, the technology sector confronted some challenges, reflecting diverse investor sentiments and wider economic influences. 🌟 Sector Overview: Energy:

We are seeing the JPY free-falling again across the board today. The Japanese long-term yields continue to hit record highs and that is of course drawing attention from Japanese officials as borrowing costs rise. Governor Ueda this morning noted that long-term rates have been rising rather rapidly recently and added that the BoJ would increase

The USDCAD rebounds after sharp fall from the stronger jobs report last week. The USDCAD saw an aggressive move lower last Friday after Canada delivered a second straight month of stronger-than-expected employment gains. That upside surprise for the Canadian economy produced a decisive shift in sentiment and triggered a sharp downside push in the pair.

Most investors already know: you don’t have to bet your whole life savings on Bitcoin. But you might consider giving it a small corner in your portfolio because it behaves differently from most traditional assets. Bitcoin has evolved into something more than speculative hype. As more institutions adopt it, its role in mainstream finance is

Trump: May make tariff changes to lower some prices US November NFIB small business optimism index 99.0 vs 98.3 expected China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips – FT ECB’s Nagel: AI offers tools to process vast datasets and can improve predictive accuracy The JPY is free-falling again despite incoming BoJ rate hike

Because we are foreseeing convergence to 2% of underlying component, we’ve been adjusting the degree of easing slowly As Japanese automakers have chosen to lower export prices without passing them to US consumers, that has stabilised the volume of auto exports, not creating large negative effects on employment and production here There’s strong enough momentum

Won’t comment on talks with Ueda BoJ needs to communicate with the government, but specifics of monetary policy should be left with BoJ Expects BoJ to carry out appropriate monetary policies to achieve its price target Government bears ultimate responsibility for macroeconomic policy I feel like she wants to calm the markets by stressing that

Would make support for immediately slashing interest rates as a litmus test in the choice of a new Fed chair (well, duh) Ukrain hasn’t had an election in a long time No question Russia has a stronger position On Ukraine: Europe is not handling it well Trump declined to rule out troops in Venezuela Could

Gambling, sports betting, crypto speculation and now online trading are part of a bigger trend of deregulation of vice and the lack of predictable pathways to succeed in the modern world. Here is a great essay from John Ehrett on what has young men struggling so badly and turning towards so many high risk behviours.

The Nikkei is up 0.2% in morning trade in what would be the second day of gains. We are pushing towards the top half of the range over the past month but don’t appear to be in a hurry to get there. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Did not explicitly consider case for a rate hike this meeting Discussed circumstances in which we might have to tighten Did discuss what they might have to do if rates need to go up Need to be cautious on monthly CPI series as yet Inflation and jobs data will be important for February meeting Would

Prior was 3.60% The decision was unanimous The last cut was in August The next decision is Feb 3 Highlights from the statement: Recent data suggests risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take “a little longer” to assesses the persistence of inflation pressures Various indicators suggest that labor market conditions

Prior 98.2 Full report here An increase in those expecting real sales to be higher contributed most to the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from October to 91. An increase in owners reporting uncertainty about capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months was the primary driver

Prior €15.3 billion Exports +0.1% vs -0.5% expected Prior +1.4% Imports -1.2% vs -0.5% expected Prior +3.1% Full report here The German trade surplus expanded in October as exports rose by 0.1% on the month while imports fell by 1.2%. This is not market-moving data and won’t change anything for the ECB. This article was

AI offers tools to process vast datasets. These can help, among other things, detect previously unseen patterns and improve predictive accuracy Machine learning could identify inflationary pressures, labor-market shifts or structural breaks in the economy faster The technology would not substitute for human expertise For more here Nagel didn’t touch on monetary policy, but he

The statement was out earlier and Bullock will speak soon: At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent. While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it has picked up more recently. The Board’s judgement is that some of the recent increase in underlying

It’s hard to believe that Charlie Munger died two years ago but with the passing of time, his advice remains some of the best stuff ever said about investing. Here is a great one: “It’s amazing how intelligent it is to spend some time just sitting. A lot of people are way too active.” Along

Eurostoxx +0.11% Germany DAX +0.21% France CAC 40 +0.13% UK FTSE -0.08% Spain IBEX +0.14% Italy FTSE MIB +0.01% Yesterday’s losses were eventually pared as markets recovered after some brief weakness. What might keep a lid on gains is the risk of a hawkish Fed’s decision tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Same approach will apply to AMD, Intel and others There have been various reports about this for weeks, but earlier today there were stronger signs Shares of Nvidia rose after hours to $187.30 from $185.50. Here is what Trump said on Truth Social: I have informed President Xi, of China, that the United States will

The RBA decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later and that will be critical. I find the RBA to be a critical central bank to watch as it’s at the leading edge of the large group of central

Will make appropriate economic, fiscal decisions at appropriate timing while taking into account interest rates, FX and prices Watching market moves closely Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Difficult to single out impact of fiscal policy on interest rates, FX as they are determined by various factors Feels like Japanese officials

The Japan government has downgraded the tsunami warning to a tsunami advisory after the earthquake. The USDJPY has come off the highs that reached 155.98. The current price is at 155.72. Technically, the price is still above its 200 hour MA at 155.638. If the price can stay above that level, the buyers will remain

Won’t comment on specifics on interest rates Long-term rates are rising rather rapidly recently Will increase JGB purchases if long-term rates make abrupt moves Will pay close attention to market moves Real interest rates are significantly low Will adjust degree of monetary easing if economic, prices trends move in line with forecasts Gathering information on

RBA decision: Case rate set at 3.60% vs 3.60% expected RBA’s Bullock: Discussed circumstances in which we might have to tighten Full text of the RBA decision on Dec 9, 2025 Australian November NAB business conditions +7 vs +9 prior UK BRC November retail sales +1.2% y/y vs +1.5% prior Trump threatens Mexico tariffs due

It’s decision day for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Unfortunately for us, the decision itself will be drama free with no change in the 3.60% case target expected whatsoever. What’s starting to get interesting is 2026 as the market is now fully priced for at least one rate hike. At the March meeting, there is

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $50 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the 1st of 3 coupon auctions this week with the treasury also auctioning $39 billion of 9 year 11 month bonds tomorrow at 1 PM. On Thursday they will complete the auctions with the

When asked about a trade deal with India, US Treasury Secretary Bessent says: We are still working on a India trade Companies like Nike export from India. Their stuff today is down sharply but -3.89% at $63.30. In the tumble, the price has moved back below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $64.06

Trump is busy on Truth Social today: Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years. The U.S needs Mexico to release

Prior business conditions +9 Business confidence +1 vs +6 prior National Australia Bank, one of the country’s “Big Four” banks. This survey combines three components—trading conditions, profitability, and employment—into a single index that shows whether business activity is expanding or contracting. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US is to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China. Some analysts view such a move as a “strategic win-win,” arguing that allowing H200 shipments would sustain China’s reliance on U.S. AI infrastructure — and potentially slow down the adoption of domestic alternatives The H200 is more capable than the chip China is currently allowed

Crude oil futures settle at $58.88. Down $1.20 or -2.0%. The high price reached $60.30. The low price was at $58.68. Technically, the ups and downs continue. The price rallied to a more recent cycle high near $60.50 on Friday. But today the price rotated to the downside falling back below the 100 hour moving

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.6% when it announces its decision at 10:30 PM ET.. We won’t get the economic projections at this meeting, so the focus will be on the statement and the press conference. The expectations are for the central bank to

Pres. Trump on Canada says: Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have to On related trade news, the US ambassador to Canada says: Trump does not want to terminate the USMCA trade deal This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ukraine Zelenskyy is speaking and says: Talks in London were productive. There is a small progress toward peace. Ukraine – Europe plan proposals should be ready by tomorrow to share with the US Ukraine cannot give up land The US is trying to find a compromise on this issue This article was written by Greg

U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.614%. WI level at the time of the auction was 3.622% Tail -0.8 basis points versus -0.2 basis points 6 month average bid to cover 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.63X Directs 19.0% versus 6 month average of 24.5%. Indirects

Prior was +2.1% Overtime pay +1.5% vs +1.0% prior Real cash earnings -0.7% The Bank of Japan still isn’t priced for a hike next week but this is another reason to believe that one is coming. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDINR corrected lower last week, breaking below its 100-hour moving average. However, sellers were unable to extend the decline toward the next key target—the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the mid-November low. That failure allowed buyers to regroup and push the pair higher, lifting it back above the 100-hour MA, where dips

The November New York Fed survey of consumer expectations showed: November three-year-ahead expected inflation rate unchanged at 3% November five-year-ahead expected inflation rate unchanged at 3% U.S. households’ year-ahead expected inflation rate unchanged at 3.2% in November Households more pessimistic on current and future financial situations in November November year-ahead expected rise in medical costs

EUR/USD 1.1800 (EUR 1.99 bn) 1.1650 (EUR 976.48 mn) 1.1575 (EUR 892.51 mn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 1.67 bn) 155.00 (US$ 1.73 bn) 153.00 (US$ 778.82 mn) GBP/USD 1.3500 (GBP 500.00 mn) 1.3050 (GBP 740.00 mn) USD/CHF 0.8020 (US$ 180.00 mn) 0.7975 (US$ 100.00 mn) USD/CAD 1.3940 (US$ 1.12 bn) AUD/USD 0.6665 (AUD 301.57 mn) 0.6595

The major European indices are closing mixed to start the new trading week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.11% France’s CAC, -0.18% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.27% Spain’s Ibex, +0.07% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.08%. As London/European traders come to the conclusion of the trading day, the US major indices are all negative,

Silver continues to command global attention as the metal trades near historic highs and investors position for what may be one of the most important phases of its multiyear uptrend. Strong inflows into silver backed ETFs, persistent industrial demand, and a structural supply deficit have all contributed to the current momentum. At the same time,

In the video above, I take a closer look at the USDCHF, which is stretching higher and testing a key resistance swing area between 0.8066 and 0.8076. A break above that zone — and more importantly, a sustained move above it — would open the door for additional upside momentum. From a broader perspective, the

The BLS is reporting that It will not publish the October PPI report The November report will be published on January 14, 2026 They will also not produce October 2025 import and export price reports The November import export price indices will be published January 15. The BLS announced earlier that the CPI data for

Ethereum has been setting up an increasingly interesting structure on the 4 hour chart, and today we take a closer look at what may be forming. As many readers know from previous InvestingLive analysis, I like to keep chart work simple whenever possible. Clean structures often tell the clearest story, and Ethereum is now giving

The frontrunner for the nomination for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Hassett is speaking on CNBC and says: Powell has done a good job at herding the cats. We should continue to get the rate down some We need to watch the data. We have a lot of missing data The president has a guaranteed

The USDJPY has moved higher after the 7.6 magnitude earthquake struck the East Coast of Aomori Prefecture. Tsunami warnings and advisories are currently in effect (red and yellow areas on the map below). The USDJPY has pushed higher on the news, helped by rising U.S. yields, with the 10-year up roughly 4 basis points. On

Eurostoxx -0.03% Germany DAX -0.11% France CAC 40 -0.07% UK FTSE +0.17% Spain IBEX -0.28% Italy FTSE MIB -0.03 These are very small changes and they are already getting pared. Earlier in the session, we got a Bloomberg article on ECB’s Schnabel recent remarks in which she said that she was comfortable with bets that

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a buoyant performance in the technology sector, with standout gains driven by companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO). ORCL has surged by an impressive 2.00%, reflecting positive investor sentiment and likely fueled by strong earnings forecasts or strategic announcements. AVGO outshines with a remarkable increase of 3.23%,

The USDCAD moved sharply lower on Friday after stronger jobs report. Recall, Unemployment rate 6.5% vs 7.0% expected Participation rate 65.1% vs 65.3% prior Full time -9.4% vs -18.5K prior Part time +63.0K vs 85.1K prior Average hourly wages for permanent employees 4.00% vs 4.00% prior As a reminder, there were a pair of weak

Prior -37 This is not a market moving release. This index has been deeply in the negative since 2022, although it rebounded from the trough made in October 2023 at -52.5. The SNB meanwhile is not expected to do anything in terms of monetary policy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.3% Industrial production Y/Y +0.8% vs -1.0% prior This is not a market-moving release but it’s a nice beat on estimates and another confirmation of a pick up in economic activity. Industrial production has been recovering from the May 2024 trough at -7.7% and it’s now back into positive territory. ECB’s Schnabel has been

According to a filing, the Ellison family (PSKY) and RedBird committed to backstop 100% of the USD 40.7bn equity capital required for the deal. The structure with Ellison family eliminates any potential CFIUS (foreign investment) review risk for the proposed WBD transaction. If the proposed deal is terminated under certain circumstances, Paramount (PSKY) would pay

Prior was +4483B This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A 7.2 magnitude earthquake is reported off of northern Japan. More specifically off of the coast of Aomori Prefecture. There are Tsunami warnings for parts of northern Japan with maximum 3 m high tsunami expected after the earthquake UPDATE. There is no abnormalities at Tohoku Electric nuclear plant in Aomori after earthquake. This article was

Trump and Carney were at the World Cup draw on Friday and were cordial. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Good on anyone who sniffed out the Warner Brothers sale last year as it’s been better than a 3x trade. The upside is now limited to $27.75 per shares, which is what Netflix bid as part of the $72 billion equity deal plus debt. It’s a huge bid in a tough industry as Netflix tries

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.6% tomorrow. We won’t get the economic projections at this meeting, so the focus will be on the statement and the press conference. The expectations are for the central bank to remain cautious and acknowledge the risks around inflation,

The Paramount Skydance (PSKY) launched an all-cash tender offer to acquire Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) for $30 per share. The proposed deal values WBD at $108.4 billion. The offer covers 100% of WBD, including its global networks segment. Paramount has taken the offer directly to WBD shareholders. Equity financing will be backstopped by the Ellison

MoneyGram Haas F1 Team today announced a major new multi-year partnership with IC, one of the world’s leading online trading brands. IC joins the team as the Official FX Trading Partner, with branding debuting on the nose, front wing, halo, and cockpit headrests of the Haas car at this weekend’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. As

It was a rough day for Nifty 50 as the index erased all the post-RBI rate cut gains. The market fell by 0.96% but rebounded late in the session from a key support zone around the 25,900 level. The dip-buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into

The USD is modestly changed vs the major currencies to start the US session and the new trading week. In the video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. This week the expectations is for a 25 basis point cut from

RBA preview: Will the central bank switch to a hawkish stance? ECB’s Kazimir: I see no reason to change rates in the coming months Nifty 50 ends the day lower but rebounds from key support ahead of the close Eurozone December Sentix investor confidence -6.2 vs -7.0 expected ECB’s Rehn: Sticking to full optionality on

Japan Q3 GDP revised -2.3% annualized vs -2.0% expected What’s the big contrarian trade for 2026? Commodities according to BofA China posts another massive trade surplus IBM nears deal to buy Confluent at below the IPO price Macron threatens tariffs on China “in the coming months” due to trade surpluses Japan October current account +2833b

I see no reason to change rates in the coming months, definitely not in December FX pass through to prices may not be as strong as expected Remaining vigilant to upside risks has become more important Overengineering policy around small inflation deviations would introduce unnecessary policy uncertainty That’s been Kazimir’s stance for a while as

Shareholders of Confluent ($CFLT) might be about to have a great start to the week, though it’s a sad end or the highly-touted IPO. The WSJ reports that IBM is near an $11 billion deal to buy the company. On Friday, shares closed at $23.14 with a market cap of $8 billion. That would imply

The trade war isn’t hurting China as it posted another massive trade surplus in November, one of its largest ever. Surplus of USD 111.68 billion vs $90.7 billion prior USD denominated Nov imports +1.9% USD denominated Nov exports +5.9% Nov rare earth exports 5494 tonnes vs 4343 tonnes in Oct Year through Nov surplus of

Prior -7.4 Full report here This is better than expected and continues to point to stabilisation. The agency noted: “While the sentix economic data has improved for the fourth time in a row in some regions, the overall index for the eurozone continues to hover slightly in negative territory. Although it rose by 1.2 points

Sticking to full optionality on rates, full freedom of action and moving forward meeting by meeting Downside inflation risks dominate slightly at the moment, but upside risks are also present Rejected pre-emptive easing on the base of insurance Inflation expectations are well anchored around 2% target Loss of Fed independence would have consequences for ECB

A busy week lies ahead with several key economic events on the calendar, but Monday begins quietly, with no significant releases. On Tuesday, the main focus will be the RBA’s monetary policy announcement and the ADP employment change and JOLTS job openings data in the U.S. BoJ Governor Ueda will take part in a moderated

Happy Monday Asia-Pacific traders. Eamonn is out this week so I will be filling in and having some fun along the way: Here is how each currency is performing on the day so far: Euro: Up by 0.0003 Japanese Yen: Down by 0.13 British Pound: Down by 0.0010 Swiss Franc: Down by 0.0009 Canadian Dollar:

Comfortable with bets that next move will be a rate hike Barring shocks, interest rates are at appropriate levels The economy has been much more resilient than could have been expected ECB can tolerate moderate deviations from the target What matters is the overall macroeconomic narrative Inflation is in good place Services inflation remains the

Futures trading has resumed with some small moves so far. S&P 500 futures up 5 points, or 0.05% Gold futures up $3 WTI futures up 10-cents If spoos finish higher today, it will be the fifth day in a row of gains and 10th in the past 11. This article was written by Adam Button

In the European session, we just have a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. In the American session, we only get the US consumer inflation expectations data from the NY Fed. After

Gold Futures Technical Analysis Today: Key Reversal Zone Emerging on the 4 Hour Chart as Traders Watch 4,210 and the Lower Channel In this Gold futures technical analysis on the 4 hour chart, we explore why gold may be approaching a very interesting spot for a potential bullish reversal. Price is moving toward the lower

It’s easy-come, easy-go in the bitcoin market this weekend. Earlier today it sank all the way to $87,800 and then stormed to a high of $91,700 in a straight-line move. Now though, the bears are back in control and have dragged it down to $89,577. That’s not a great sign for overall risk appetite into

Prelim was -1.8% Prior was +2.3% q/q GDP q/q -0.6% vs -0.5% expected q/q private consumption +0.2% vs +0.1% prelim External demand -0.2% vs -0.2% prelim This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Late last week, I spoke with Dale Pinkert at Forex Analytix about markets. The prior time I spoke with in early Sept, I pushed hard on the idea that gold was going to run and it certainly did. As we head into year-end, the setup for 2026 is getting fascinating. We covered a massive amount

In an interview on Sunday published by Los Echos, French President Emmanuel Macron hinted at a US-style trade war on China. He said he spoke with Chinese officials and warned them what’s coming. “I told them that if they do not react, we Europeans would be forced, in the coming months, to take strong measures

Will not extend electricity rebates Decision on Austal is imminent The electricity comment is inflationary and the RBA should look through it but there are inflationary pressures building in 2026 and a rate hike late in the year is increasingly the base case This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Concerned about FX moves Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Will take appropriate action on FX if necessary The market got used to these kind of comments by now. I guess the lack of meaningful JPY strength despite an upcoming BoJ rate hike is making them even more concerned. This article

Gold prices are up 60% year to date and Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett is out with a bold call on hard assets, tagging energy as the ultimate contrarian play. Hartnett, the Chief Investment Strategist at BofA, is looking past the current tech euphoria and digging into the beaten-down sectors. In his latest note, he

Gold is up $14.40 to $4210 in early Asian trading to start the week. The main driver of gold this week will be the FOMC decision and how dovish/hawkish the messages from Powell are and the dots. A cut is all-but assured. Zooming out, the last week of low gold volatility is a real outlier

The new week is underway and the early FX moves are minimal. I haven’t seen any economic data or news that’s particularly notable, so we will take the market moves as they come. The big data drop today comes at 2350 GMT with the result of Japanese Q3 GDP. This is the second revision and

Indian Rupee Technical Analysis Today: USDINR Bounce From 110 to 110.5 Plays Out, What Comes Next for the Rupee Price Prediction INR Price Prediction via the Following Technical Analysis Video In today’s Indian Rupee technical analysis, we revisit the USDINR 4 hour chart after last week’s prediction. The Indian rupee futures moved exactly into our

Many traders and investors saw the seemingly aggressive bearish reversal for gold on Friday and are wondering if we have a double top. Perhaps a start of a major bearish reversal? Gold has been one of the most followed markets this quarter, and for two years now, actually, and many new traders are asking the

Mon: Chinese Trade Balance (Nov) Tue: RBA Announcement, EIA STEO, German Trade Balance (Oct), US JOLTS (Oct) Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, Chinese Inflation (Nov), Swedish GDP (Oct), Norwegian CPI (Nov), US Employment Cost Index (Q3) Thu: SNB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR, IEA OMR, Australian Jobs Report (Nov), Swedish CPIF (Nov) Fri: UK GDP

U.S. stocks ended the day modestly higher, supported by steady gains in large-caps and renewed strength in several growth names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 104.05 points (+0.22%) to 47,954.99, while the S&P 500 added 13.28 points (+0.19%) to 6,870.40. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, climbing 72.99 points (+0.31%) to 23,578.13. Sector performance was mixed,

Tech and consumer lead US stocks higher; Utilities and energy drag down market The US Federal Reserve rate decision the highlight next week US consumer credit for October $9.18 billion versus $10.50 billion estimate The World Cup of foreign exchange begins Baker Hughes oil rig count +6 to 413 Most major European indices close lower

Adobe reports earnings next Wednesday, with expectations calling for EPS of $5.39 on $6.11 billion in revenue. That compares with $4.81 and $5.61 billion a year ago—an increase of 12% in EPS and 8.9% in revenue. Those are solid year-over-year gains, especially given the stock’s performance this year. Shares jumped 5.67% today (up $18.64 to

The Federal Reserve will announce or interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Fed chair Powell will speak at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed decision is 1 of 4 central bank decisions next week. The reserve Bank of Australia will announce their rate decision on Monday night in the US (10:30 PM ET)

The World Cup is in the USA, Canada and Mexico this year. The World Cup draw is underway now and the first three matchups drawn are: Mexico-Korea Canada-Switzerland USA-Australia Those are fairly good draws for the hosts in what’s sure to be a fun summer. But while countries compete on the football pitch, they also

The USDCHF is trading higher and has stretched to a new high for the week in the last hour or so of trading. Earlier this week, the price moved below the 50% of the move down from the November high at 0.8000, but could not sustain momentum below that level. The sellers had their shot.

Prior month $11.01 billion revised from $13.09 billion Consumer credit for the month of October $9.18 billion versus $10.50 billion expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Recall last week, Baker Hughes oil rig count fell -12. Today they rose by half of that with a gain of 6 to 413. The natural gas rates fell -1 to 129. The total rigs for the week rose 5 to 549. Crude oil is trading near highs for the day up $0.60 41% at

Treasury Secretary Bessent is out with a good review of the China trade detente. He said the had a constructive call with He Lifeng today about the implementation of the agreement between Xi and Trump. He said it is “going well”. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Most of the major European indices are closing lower. The exception is the German DAX. The other indices are closing near lows for the day after giving up gains: German DAX rose 156.68 points or 0.66% at 24038.72. At session highs the index was up 249 points. France’s CAC fell -7.3 points or -0.09% and

The USDINR sellers had their chance – at least in the short term. The price moved below a swing level at 89.7830. The price moved below the rising 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 89.8838. The price moved below a rising trend line. However, the price could not extend below the 38.2% target at

Earlier reports said Trump wouldn’t be talking trade with his North American counterparts but now that doesn’t seem to be the case: Have meetings set up after FIFA event, will discuss trade Will meet with Canada and Mexico Getting along very well That’s more good news or CAD but Trump is so vague and temperamental,

The AUDUSD has moved sharply higher this week with a gain of 1.44% for the week.Today the pair is up around 0.45%. The move to the upside is now extended above a swing area going back to the end of July between 0.66247 to 0.6635. That is now a close risk area for the pair.

Gold is one of several assets that have seen heavy selling in the past half-hour. Gold has quickly turned a $50 gain into a small loss in a near-vertical drop. Elsewhere, strong gains in US equities have faded as well with a 0.5% rally in the S&P 500 fading to 2%. Bitcoin is also being

Oil prices will like this: The EU and G7 in talks on imposing a full ban on accessing maritime services by Russia to disrupt oil exports Would scrap oil price cap system The oil price cap system has been a failure and this would probably be a failure too but there’s a chance it could

The USDCAD continued its move to the downside today, extending the sharp reaction that followed the stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report. The data gave traders a clear fundamental reason to sell the pair, and that sentiment has carried through the session. As a result, the currency is now down roughly -0.75% on the day, marking one

The US dollar is at its lowest levels against the Canadian dollar in ten weeks, following a blockbuster Canadian jobs report. USD/CAD is down 70 pips on the day to 1.3886, which narrowly breaks the October low. It’s the lowest levels since September 23. The question is whether this is a gamechanger for the Canadian

The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 25bps on Friday, delivering the widely expected move as record-low retail inflation and a benign price outlook gave policymakers space to extend support for growth. Reserve Bank of India rate cut by 25bp The decision brings the total easing since February to 125bps, taking the

Personal income 0.4% versus 0.3% personal consumption 0.3% versus 0.3% as expected PCE for September 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. YoY 2.8% versus 2.8% expected Core PCE for September 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. YoY 2.8% versus 2.9% expected PCE Ex food energy, and housing 0.2% MoM versus 0.2% last month PCE Ex energy and housing 0.2%

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian Retail Sales and the final Eurozone Q3 GDP. None of the data will change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted. In the American session, the main highlight

Will step up efforts to expand imports To also expand services consumption Will increase implementation of inclusive policies that directly reach households/consumers To eliminate restrictive measures and promote renewal consumption of home appliances It’s all about trying to revive domestic demand conditions in China and it comes with trying to promote a better environment for

There are two things that the market considers with economic data: What the Fed will do What the Fed should do Now those two things are usually aligned but not always. The heavy politicization of the Fed has the market worried about unwise rate cuts now and into next year. Today’s UMich consumer sentiment and

Japan’s household spending fell at its fastest pace in nearly two years in October, raising fresh concerns about the resilience of consumer demand just as the Bank of Japan prepares for a potential rate hike this month. Government data showed spending fell 3.0% y/y, the first drop in six months and far worse than the

Prior +1.1%; revised to +2.0% German factory orders came in with a beat in October, even with the more positive revision to the September figures as well. That’s a positive and even when you exclude large orders from the equation, new orders were 0.5% higher than in the previous month. However, the less volatile three-month

The Federal Reserve cutting rates sucks up all the oxygen in the central bank conversation but elsewhere there are brewing worries about inflation that Villeroy is hinting at here. Current ECB good position on policy does not mean it’s a comfortable one, nor a fixed one The market is pricing in a 25% chance of

The Canada jobs report came in stronger than expectations with employment change at 53.6 thousand and the unemployment rate falling sharply to 6.5% from 7.0%. The participation rate did fall which probably helped push down the unemployment rate. That rate fell to 65.1% from 65.3%. The other caveat is for the 2nd month in the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 22 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 84 bps ECB: 1 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 7 bps BoE: 23 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 64 bps BoC: 1 bps (93% probability of

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a consolidation below the 4245 level recently as the focus turned to the looming FOMC decision on Wednesday. The precious metal has been keeping a bullish bias ever since Fed’s Williams endorsed a December rate cut. The higher rate cut odds have been a tailwind for precious metals. There’s

JP Morgan’s headline call that bitcoin could reach $170,000 within a year if it continues to “trade like gold” grabbed attention, but the bank’s deeper analysis points to a far more immediate driver: Strategy’s (MicroStrategy’s) influence on market stability. The note from the bank needs some reading between the lines. The gold comparison is a

The EURUSD is trading to new session lows and in the process is breaking below 3 technical levels: 100 day moving average at 1.1644 100 hour moving average at 1.1641 The broken 38.2% retracement at 1.16398 The combination of those 3 now set a ceiling level (risk level) for traders looking for more downside. Stay

Prior was +66.6K Unemployment rate 6.5% vs 7.0% expected Participation rate 65.1% vs 65.3% prior Full time -9.4% vs -18.5K prior Part time +63.0K vs 85.1K prior Average hourly wages for permanent employees 4.00% vs 4.00% prior There were a pair of weak reports in July/August followed by a pair of strong ones in Sept/Oct,

Prior was 50.3 Current conditions vs 51.3 expected (52.3 prior) Expectations vs 51.2 expected (49.0 prior) One-year inflation 4.1% vs 4.7% prior Five-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.6% prior The UMich survey is flawed but the Fed still looks at it. Those inflation numbers are a real green light to cut rates. The stock market should

USD/INR opened slightly lower on Friday at 89.84, easing from Thursday’s record high of 90.42 as traders position ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision. Market chatter suggests that if the RBI cuts rates, the pair could retest the 90 handle, with policymakers’ comments on the rupee’s recent weakness seen as the key

Just remember though that when viewing the expiries below that they will be subject to change as more orders are put through during the day/week up until the expiry date/time itself. So, expect there to be changes to the sizes and perhaps significance depending on where the spot trades next week and if there are

US initial jobless claims 191K versus 220K estimate Jobs survey from Revelio Labs sees 9K US job losses in November Freddie Mac: The 30 year mortgage rate falls to 6.19% from 6.23% last week The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker edges lower but it still shouldn’t be trusted US September factory orders +0.2% vs +0.5% expected

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prepared to consider further tariff concessions on products originating in the US That only provided that the US is also willing to grant more concessions Committed to further improve access to the US market It’s not the first time that they adopted a draft mandate in dealing with US tariffs in this whole saga. As

The U.S. stock market is buzzing with activity today, showcasing a fascinating mix of gains and losses as different sectors react to varying market pressures. Here’s your detailed snapshot of sector performances, market mood, and strategic recommendations for savvy investors. Sector Overview 📈 Semiconductors Surge: Leading the charge is the semiconductor sector, with Broadcom (AVGO)

Prior +0.1% GDP +1.4% y/y Prior +1.5% Looking at the breakdown, household consumption contributed 0.1% to GDP growth on the quarter with government expenditure (+0.1%) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2%) also seen increasing. Changes in inventories were also positive (+0.1%) and the only offsetting factor was exports less imports (-0.2%). This article was written

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark. Sellers tried to make a play once again yesterday in trying for a firm break below the figure level but ultimately failed as the daily close held at 155.05. So,

I believe markets in the long run are very efficient Fluctuations can happen, effort is to reduce undue volatility We have sufficient reserves, current account mangeable Should get good capital flows going forward due to good fundamentals We don’t target any particular growth rate in credit Expect policy rates to be low as inflation will

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s a steadier start to the day with US futures also holding just a little higher for now. The mood music in stocks look to be one that is calmer, with less volatility and drama so

A Reuters opinion piece is bullish gold. It’s a long and detailed piece, I’ve summarised below: Gold’s Surge: Bubble or Paradigm Shift? Gold is up more than 60% this year — its strongest gain in nearly 50 years — raising the question of bubble vs. structural repricing. Inflation-adjusted, gold is at its most expensive ever,

The firm previously saw no rate cut by the Fed for December but now revises that call to a 25 bps rate cut for next week. Adding to that, they also see another 25 bps rate cut in April 2026. And that will take the Fed funds rate to their terminal target range of 3.00%

Meanwhile, the stats office expects the Italian economy to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and that reaffirms their previous estimate. So, no change on that front to the outlook for next year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps as expected today leaving the door open for further easing amid record low inflation. In the press conference, Governor Malhotra signalled the intention to diminish the central bank’s intervention in the market to stop the rupee depreciation. History teaches that it’s useless for a central bank

The USD has seen moves lower today and than back higher in trading today. The moves have tested some key technical levels in the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD in the process. In this video, I kickstart the North American session by breaking down those technicals that are in play in the consolidation trading seen today.

Government will not comment on that Hopes that BOJ will guide monetary policy appropriately to stably achieve 2% inflation target Hopes for BOJ to work closely in line with the government on principles stipulated in joint agreement Important for stock, FX, bond market to move stably reflecting fundamnetals Government will watch market moves with high

The People’s Bank of China appears to be pushing back against market expectations for the yuan to strengthen beyond the 7.00 psychological level, signalling that authorities are now more comfortable with stability than further appreciation. After weeks of guiding the currency stronger, the PBOC abruptly shifted tone: Thursday’s USD/CNY fixing widened to a +150-pip adjustment

U.S. equities finished little changed on Thursday as investors balanced a soft batch of economic updates against rising confidence the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. Gains in the broader market were capped by a drop in Amazon shares, which weighed on the S&P 500. S&P 500 gained 0.11% Nasdaq +0.23% Dow slipped 0.07%

Major indices in the US had a mixed showing yesterday, mostly keeping little changed. Tech shares squeezed out slight gains but it wasn’t all too convincing of a more positive undertone even if European equities also managed to grind higher yesterday. At the balance, investors seem a bit nervous still in trying to manage the

The Canada jobs report will be released at 830 with the employment change expected at -5.0 K versus 66.6 K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 7.0% from 6.9%. The full-time employment last month came in at -18.5 K. The part-time employment search by 85.1 K. Finally the participation rate

Headlines: The risk mood keeps steadier and more boxed in going into the final stretch of the week How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? The Indian Rupee falls again following the RBI’s rate cut: the trend remains negative Japan economy minister says specific monetary policy is up to the BOJ to

It’s been a bit of a running theme to start the new month, hasn’t it? That being firms expecting further dollar weakness in December. Credit Agricole is the latest to pile in on the greenback in arguing that EUR/USD is “looking undervalued according to our FAST FX model”. Adding that the pair has yet to

The Bank of Japan is said to be leaning toward a rate hike at its December meeting, while keeping the option open for further tightening, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with internal discussions. Policymakers will continue monitoring incoming economic data and market conditions right up to the final decision. The headline immediately

The Reserve Bank of Australia is unanimously expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% on 9 December according to the latest Reuters poll: all 38 economists forecasting no move; survey also marks a notable shift in the outlook: the median now expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, compared with expectations for cuts as

Despite the spectacular diversification that the financial markets have witnessed since the emergence of Bitcoin and altcoins, and more recently, with EV and AI stocks, no other asset class has proved its durability, particularly under conditions of market duress, more than precious metals. Whether they’re traded on the spot or futures markets, or as part

Gold is trading just under US$4,210/oz on Friday morning Asia time, with traders turning cautious ahead of a cluster of delayed U.S. data and the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, December 9 and 10. Spot prices slipped around 0.5% overnight to roughly US$4,180, before grinding back higher. The immediate focus is on today’s U.S. Personal

Fundamental Overview The Nifty 50 bounced around a key support recently and extended the gains today following the RBI’s rate cut. The central bank’s support is certainly a good thing for the stock market. The aggressive US tariffs have been one of the main negative factors for India this year. The tariffs haven’t stopped the

German DAX futures +0.1% French CAC 40 futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures flat After a bit of a setback on Monday, European indices have recovered well and are hoping to stick the landing in rounding off the first week of December. So far today, the mood music is helped by a steadier tone in US

India’s equity benchmarks are poised to open higher on Friday as investors await the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision, with markets split on whether strong GDP growth and a weakening rupee argue against a widely expected rate cut. Nifty futures were trading higher than Thursday’s close. The RBI decision, due at 0400 GMT/ 2300

Repo rate cut to 5.25% from 5.5% Marginal Lending Facility Rate lowered by 25bps to 5.50% Standing Deposit Facility Rate to 5.00% Governor Malhotra of the RBI says the vote to cut was unanimous: maintains neutral stance banking system further consolidated since the October policy meeting, the economy has witnessed rapid disinflation it’s a rare

Prior +0.6%; revised to +0.5% House prices +0.7% y/y Prior +1.9% UK house prices were steady in November as the yearly growth slows, though the average property price is seen inching up to a new record high of £299,892. Resilient. Halifax notes that: “This consistency in average prices reflects what has been one of the

Reserve Bank of India rate cut by 25bp BOJ likely to hike in December, Bloomberg says; yen jumps on report PBOC reins in yuan strength, signalling comfort with current level before key policy event USD/INR eases from record highs as markets await RBI decision and guidance Chinese GPU makr surges 400% amid booming demand for

Prior -€6.58 billion; revised to -€6.35 billion The French trade deficit narrowed modestly in October, as exports were seen down 0.5% on the month while imports slumped by 4.6% on the month. The less volatile three-month moving average trade balance though was -€5.2 billion, just marginally changed from the -€5.1 billion in September. This article

The scramble for copper assets is being driven by a powerful demand outlook for a metal that already underpins construction, transport and electronics—and is now becoming essential to electrification and the soaring power needs of AI data centres. Info collated in a Forbes piece, more here (may be gated). Copper has surged 30% this year

Government taking appropriate steps on excessive, disorderly moves in FX market if necessary Expect BOJ to conduct monetary policy appropriately Important for FX market to move steadily and stably It’s just some added verbal intervention, though they can be a little bit happier surely that the Japanese yen didn’t tumble further this week. It’ll be

U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Washington aims to maintain a stable but recalibrated relationship with China, stressing that bilateral trade must become more balanced, and likely smaller, over time. Greer noted the U.S. goods trade deficit with China has already fallen by about 25%, calling the shift “the right direction.” Greer also flagged ongoing issues

PM Sanae Takaichi is attempting to calm markets after unveiling a $137bn stimulus plan that raised concerns about fiscal sustainability. Japan faces rising long-end bond yields, a weak yen, and doubts about who will absorb sharply increasing JGB supply. I’ve summarised a long piece via Reuters. And also taken issue with a key conclusion (see

Shares of Moore Threads, the Beijing-based GPU designer dubbed “China’s Nvidia”, surged more than 400% on their Shanghai debut after the company raised $1.1 billion in its IPO. The stock jumped to 584.98 yuan, more than five times its offer price of 114.28 yuan, underscoring intense investor appetite for domestic AI chipmakers as U.S. export

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son is finalising plans with the White House and the U.S. Commerce Department for a sweeping industrial project that could channel hundreds of billions of dollars into building Trump-branded technology manufacturing parks across the United States, according to people familiar with the talks. The Wall Street Journal (gated) has the info. The

India’s central bank is allowing the rupee to weaken as deteriorating external conditions strain the currency, according to Reuters sources familiar with the Reserve Bank of India’s thinking. A key takeaway from the Reuters reports is: “It doesn’t make sense to spend reserves when fundamentally everything is against the currency,” one of the sources said,

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline while signalling continued coordination with the Bank of Japan ahead of its pivotal December policy meeting. Katayama said interest rates are shaped by “various factors” and stressed that the government will closely monitor market developments, pursue appropriate debt-management policies, and craft budgets with

China’s crackdown on local-government borrowing is pushing even wealthy provinces back into the shadow-banking market, where state-run entities are taking on high-cost loans to plug funding gaps. Bloomberg carried the info: Since September, local-government investment arms and financing platforms in regions have borrowed billions of dollars from trust companies and leasing firms at 8%+ rates,

Japan’s wage momentum looks set to continue into next year as one of the country’s most influential labour unions prepares to demand salary increases that exceed this year’s record gains. ICYMI, info publised late Thursday. The Japan Council of Metalworkers’ Unions (JCM) said it will seek a monthly base-pay hike of at least ¥12,000 in

The Bank of Japan appears to have won its first major policy test with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, securing tacit government approval for a December rate hike to 0.75%. Reuters have the opinion piece, I’ve summarised into a much more concise quick read. BoJ Governor Ueda effectively pre-signalled the move in a recent speech, and

The ‘will they or won’t they?’ December Bank of Japan rate hike question continues to dominate Japanese financial markets. Mix in a little bit of fiscal sustainability concern to make it more interesting too. On that fiscal sustainability question you’d never know it given the very, very successful 30-year JGB auction yesterday: Japan’s 30-yr JGB

AMD chief executive Lisa Su says the company is authorised to ship certain MI308 artificial-intelligence chips to China and is ready to pay a 15% fee to the U.S. government should those exports move ahead. Speaking at a Wired event in San Francisco, Su confirmed AMD holds the required licenses under the Biden-era export controls

Japan’s household spending slumped sharply in October, underscoring persistent weakness in consumer demand and challenging the view that wage gains are feeding through to consumption. All Household Spending fell 3.0% y/y, badly missing expectations for a 1.0% rise prior +1.8% While month-on-month spending dropped 3.5% far below the forecast 0.7% increase prior -0.7% The declines

A rise in Treasury yields is the dominant feature in markets today. That’s helped to lift the US dollar for its first gain in a week and is weighing on stocks. The S&P 500 is near a session low, down 18 points to 6832. There are conflicting signals on deficit priorities in Washington. Trump has

A Trump official cited by Bloomberg said the President plans to take more stakes in mining companies. That’s good news if you’re on the right side of the picking of winners and losers by the government. Critical Metals Corp is up 10% as the market tries to restart the memes in mining. USA Rare Earth

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is working to narrow its estimate of Japan’s neutral interest rate, the level neither stimulating nor restraining the economy, and will disclose its findings if the assessment becomes sufficiently precise. For now, he said policymakers still rely on a “fairly wide range,” underscoring the uncertainty

The EURUSD has been choppy today, moving up and down within a relatively contained range. In that process, the pair once again pushed above the top of a key swing area at 1.16676. It did the same thing yesterday—breaking above the level—but in both cases, the upside momentum quickly faded. Each break higher stalled, inviting

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Kihara issued some of the strongest verbal warnings on the yen in weeks, signalling rising concern inside the government over the currency’s latest slide. Kihara said authorities are “concerned about forex moves,” adding that recent yen weakness has become “somewhat rapid and one-sided” — language that typically precedes stepped-up monitoring

The Freddie Mac says that the 30 year average mortgage rate fell to 6.19% from 6.23% last week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD pushed higher in early trading after the release of U.S. initial jobless claims, which showed a sharper-than-expected decline. Claims fell to 191K, well below the 220K expected. While the report covers the Thanksgiving week—a period often distorted by seasonal factors—the broader takeaway is that the U.S. labor market continues to reflect a low-hire,

In October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg went all-in on the metaverse. He had a vision of people existing in virtual worlds and he was going to be the one to make it happen. He was so committed that he changed the name of the corporate company from Facebook to Meta Platforms, and his stock ticker to

Prior week 216K initial jobless claims 191K. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 189,000. The claims is for the week of November 29. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up

The proliferation of the GDPNow report has turned into a real test of economists. It’s a semi-useful indicator but really only in the couple weeks before the advance US release, when much of the data has been released. Instead, people quote it throughout the quarter at times when it’s based on vague assumptions and models

There are quite a number to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The big ones are for EUR/USD layered across 1.1600 through to the 1.1700 mark, with larger ones centered around the 1.1650 level. That should at least keep price action more concentrated in the current range,

The major European indices are all closing higher on the day with the gains led by the Spain’s Ibex and Germans DAX indices. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX +0.85% France’s CAC, +0.43% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.19% Spain’s Ibex, +0.97% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.32% As London/European traders head for the exits, the

Prior was +1.4% Durable goods orders unrevised at +0.5% vs +0.5% prelim Non-defense capital goods orders unrevised at +0.9% These are dated numbers because of the US government shutdown and won’t be market movers This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

European equity markets closed with gains of 0.3-0.9% gains today. The winner once again was Spain’s IBEX, which has been a darling this year. It’s up 44% YTD after adding nearly 1% today. It started the year strong, took a dip at Liberation Day to wipe out the gains and has been steadily rising since.

The Atlanta FedGDPNow growth is referred Q3 dipped to 3.8% from 3.9% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent percent on December 4, down from 3.9 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US

The sources say that China’s major state-owned banks were seen buying dollars in the onshore market this week and held on to them in what a not so typical situation in the Chinese market. The dollar buying comes as state banks tried to smooth out the surging rise of the yuan currency. However, this time

Prior 44.1 Ouch, that’s a bummer. The drop in November marks the steepest downturn in UK construction output for five-and-a-half years, with all three subsectors seeing the greatest fall in activity since May 2020. That comes amid a sharp reduction in both new orders and employment. Meanwhile, business optimism also sank to its weakest since

Revelio Labs creates monthly employment estimates from online employment profiles and other information is out with its November estimate and it sees a -9.0K reading in what would be the second consecutive month of jobs losses. Some details: Leisure and hospitality -12K Retail -9K Manufacturing -7K The soft retail number is concerning ahead of the

The Chicago Fed releases a real-time unemployment forecast and sees as slight improvement in November at 4.44% vs 4.46% in October. The survey highlights how they’ve had to adjust due to the lack of non-farm payrolls. “To estimate the November 2025 unemployment rate probabilities, we made an adjustment to account for the cancellation of the

US-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, which marks a 53% decline compared to the previous month at least. But when compared to the same period last year, layoffs were 24% higher and this is the highest November month tally since 2022. So, that puts things into better context at least. As a whole,

The AUDUSD has been trending steadily higher over the past few weeks, with buyers showing a consistent appetite on dips and pushing the pair through a series of technical layers. The rally began from a lower swing area between 0.6407 and 0.6424, and has now extended all the way up toward a major upper swing

We get the first indications of Australian Q4 2025 trade data with the October numbers today. While they are marked as being of high importance I’m not expecting the release to impact too much on the AUD and other Australian markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Limassol, Cyprus – November 2025, Global CFD broker easyMarkets reported a rise in precious metals trading in Q3 2025 as overall market volatility eased to its lowest level in over a year, signaling a shift toward disciplined, short-term trading strategies among retail clients. According to the company’s Q3 2025 Market Recap, gold and silver trading

Headlines: Japanese yen gains pick up as BOJ looks to win first showdown against Takaichi BOJ reportedly likely to raise interest rates later this month China state-owned banks reportedly buying dollars to tame the surging yuan ECB’s Cipollone: Risks around inflation seem balanced Eurozone October retail sales 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected Germany November construction

JPMorgan has upgraded Chinese equities from neutral to overweight, arguing that the chances of a significant rise in 2026 outweigh the risks of a major decline. The bank sees about 19% upside for the MSCI China Index under its base case, with strategists calling current valuations attractive and investor positioning still light after years of

It’s a relatively quiet start to the session with not much for traders and investors to work with. The overall risk mood remains more muted, even if European indices are posting modest gains to follow up the steady showing from yesterday. US futures are flat, so that’s not providing much direction on risk appetite. As

The USD is starting the North American session on the defensive against the JPY, trading lower by roughly 0.40%. Early trading has seen the pair press against—and attempt to move and stay below—the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the mid-October low, a key technical level that comes in near 154.625. A sustained break below

The US stock market today presents a mixed picture, as distinct trends emerge across various sectors. Notably, Meta leads with a robust surge, while semiconductor stocks falter, showcasing the evolving dynamics in the technology sector. 📊 Sector Overview Technology Sector: While some technology stocks are holding firm, semiconductors are struggling. Nvidia (NVDA) rises modestly by

If you’ve been watching my videos on the USDINR over the last few days — including yesterday’s update — you know the focus has been on the pair’s strong bullish run to new record highs and the approach toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. That level has been the logical upside target as momentum continued to

S&P 500 futures are holding flattish with Nasdaq futures marginally lower by 0.1% while Dow futures are just marginally higher by 0.1% on the day. Overall, there’s not much in it as US equities continue to weigh the latest backdrop – mostly concerns surrounding the AI bubble. Still, the rebound from last week keeps building

Prior -0.1%; revised to +0.1% Euro area retail sales held more stable in October, with the breakdown showing an increase in the volume of retail trade for food, drinks, tobacco (+0.3%) and automotive fuel (+0.3%). That is offset by a decline in retail sales for non-food products (-0.2%). This article was written by Justin Low

We are taking decisions meeting by meeting The economy has been resilient There are still many risks in the pipeline We stand ready to act to any shock This is what ECB policymakers have been repeating over and over again for several months. There’s nothing new here. The ECB is comfortably on the sidelines and

Crude oil futures are settling at $58.95. That’s up $0.31 or 0.53%. The high price reached $59.64. The low price was at $58.37. The EIA weekly inventory data showed larger than expected builds: Crude oil 0.574 million versus -0.821 million estimate. Distillates +2.059 million versus +0.707 million estimate. Gasoline 4.518 million versus 1.468 million estimate.

Trump to decide whether to provide licences to allow Nvidia to export the H200 to China ANZ sees oil surplus capping Brent below $65 in early 2026, rising toward $70 later Japan’s 30-yr JGB sale draws highest demand since 2019 as bid-cover surges The headline about what BoJ Ueda said is missing the much bigger

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said on Wednesday that he spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump roughly 10 days ago, describing the exchange as “respectful and cordial.” His comments mark the first confirmation of direct communication between the two leaders in months. Maduro added that both sides have begun taking initial steps toward establishing a more

ANZ expects oil prices to stay capped through the first half of 2026 as supply outpaces demand, before a potential recovery emerges later in the year on improving global growth. The bank says lower refinery run rates and rising OPEC+ output are likely to drive a build-up in global crude inventories, keeping Brent below $65/bbl

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Eurozone Retail Sales and the Swiss unemployment rate that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial

It is being reported that the BOJ would want to push forward with a rate hike to end the year with the government expected to tolerate such a decision, according to the sources. As a reminder, a rate hike here would be the first since January and BOJ governor Ueda certainly alluded to that rather

Positive comments from Xi for the China trade and China proxy trade (eg, a tailwind for AUD). Will expand domestic demand in 15th five-year plan — Headlines via Reuters: China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: Both China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries. China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: China

China has delivered its strongest signal in nearly three years that it wants to moderate the yuan’s appreciation, setting Wednesday’s daily reference rate sharply weaker than market expectations. We gave a heads up earlier: Yuan nears 7 as US–China thaw lifts sentiment, but PBOC slows pace of appreciation The People’s Bank of China fixed the

Tomorrow in the US session, the Challenger job cuts will be released. During most months it is a prelude to the jobs report but because of the shutdown, there will be no jobs report until December 15 after the FOMC rate decision on December 10. Nevertheless like the ADP report, it will give some indication

If done right, affiliate marketing is every prop firm’s golden card to success. Entering the online trading space with a ‘Bang’, prop trading quickly hit a wall. Compliance scrutiny, overtrading due to challenge abuse and equity risks are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the challenges that prop trading firms face.

From earlier: BOJ reportedly likely to raise interest rates later this month The report above looks to seal the deal on a rate hike by the BOJ for December, with policymakers hoping to sneak in one last rate hike before their timing window closes. As mentioned then, the optics would’ve been better had they moved

Singapore Exchange (SGX) is pushing back against a report that it is exploring a takeover of Cboe Global Markets’ Australian business. The Australian Financial Review (AFR) earlier reported that SGX had held preliminary discussions with Cboe and its advisers about a potential bid for the exchange operator’s Australian unit, citing people familiar with the matter.

Judging by media coverage, those paying the highest price so far are recent graduates, whose job search has become much more difficult with the rise of OpenAI. And indeed, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, unemployment among young people aged 20 to 24 with a bachelor’s degree or higher reached 9.5% in

Fundamental Overview The USD has been weakening across the board ever since Fed’s Williams endorsed a December rate cut. The greenback then extended the losses further following a series of soft US data that strengthened the case for a December cut. The probability for a December cut is now at 86%, which makes it a

Japan’s 30-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand in six years on Wednesday, signalling solid investor appetite even as long-term yields hover near multi-decade highs. The Ministry of Finance reported a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.04, sharply higher than 3.12 at the previous auction in November and the highest since 2019. The auction also produced

Trump was asked about exports controls re Nvidia chips to China. He avoided the question, merely saying Nvidia is doing a very good job and that NVDA CEO Huang is a smart fellow. — In the latest quarterly results Nvidia provided solid guidance while not including any expectations re revenue from exporting chips to China.

Morgan Stanley expects a busy year for dealmaking in 2026, with a strong pipeline forming across mergers, acquisitions and IPOs, according to Mo Assomull, the bank’s co-head of investment banking. Speaking at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York, Assomull said activity levels are healthy across most major sectors — particularly technology, healthcare, industrials and

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.8% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE +0.1% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% In particular, German stocks are seeing a solid rebound after stumbling yesterday in closing lower. The mood music in Wall Street holds more positive after the Monday selloff, with gains in US major indices once more

Earlier: Yuan nears 7 as US–China thaw lifts sentiment, but PBOC slows pace of appreciation The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the

Prior 3.0% The Swiss jobless rate holds steady at 3.0%, keeping steadier in November. However, the overall trend continues to point to gradual softening in labour market conditions and that will keep the SNB on their toes especially with the eventual need to pivot to negative interest rates down the road. This article was written

Prior 42.8 This at least marks some improvement in German construction activity, though continuing to keep in contraction territory. That said, civil engineering activity is seen improving for the fourth time in six months and employment conditions actually rose for the first time in over three-and-a-half years. HCOB notes that: “The civil engineering sector is

As mentioned earlier in the week, the most significant point of this ordeal is that it means the Fed will not have an official labour market report to work with before their next policy decision on 10 December. Now, is it just all a ruse by the BLS in timing it so as to not

The major US stock indices are closing higher on the day with the Dow gains outpacing the S&P and the NASDAQ indices Dow industrial average rose 408.44 points or 0.86% at 47,882.90 S&P index rose 20.35 points or 0.30% at 6849.72 NASDAQ index rose 40.42 points or 0.17% at 23454.09. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose

The yuan is edging toward the closely watched 7-per-dollar level, lifted by improving US–China relations and a softer dollar, though the speed of its rise suggests Beijing is carefully managing the appreciation. Info via a (gated) Bloomberg report. In brief. China’s onshore yuan strengthened to around 7.06 on Wednesday, its firmest level in more than

Trump administration is preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licences to allow Nvidia to export the H200 to China – Financial Times with the report. If the controls are watered down it’ll mean a big boost for Nvidia. Earlier: Trump avoids questions about China and Nvidia More: US halted plans

Trump has covered a number of topics in his comments. Speaks a little on the Witkoff and Kushner meting with Putin: Reasonable good meeting We’ll see what happens What comes out of meeting I can’t tell you Putin wants to end the war Nothing substantive here. I guess there are a number of alternatives: Trump

Chevron has set its 2026 capital-spending budget at $18–19 billion, the low end of its previously guided $18–21 billion range through 2030, as the company focuses on high-return upstream growth in the United States and Guyana. The plan follows last month’s announcement of a multiyear cost-cutting and efficiency drive aimed at boosting returns. CEO Mike

Tesla’s UK sales dropped sharply in November, with registrations falling 19% year-on-year to 3,784 units, according to preliminary data from research group New AutoMotive. The decline follows an even steeper halving of sales in October and reflects Tesla’s continued loss of momentum in Europe as Chinese EV makers, led by BYD, expand rapidly with cheaper,

Wall Street executives and major corporate insiders are making a final push to dissuade President Trump from appointing Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the outreach. The info comes via Charles Gasparione, Greg had the info here earlier: Gasparino: Wall Street does not like Hassett. Their concern centres

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda comments are here from earlier: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says current interest rates are still accommodative Recaps are focusing on his rambling about the neutral rate. Ueda said there is still significant uncertainty about how far the BOJ can ultimately raise interest rates, citing the difficulty of estimating Japan’s

Both the S&P and NASDAQ have swung back into positive territory after starting the session under pressure. At their lows, the NASDAQ was down 141.84 points and the S&P was off 18.94 points, but steady buying has pushed both indices higher. The S&P is now up roughly 26 points (0.38%), while the NASDAQ has gained

JPMorgan says the labour market will dominate Wall Street’s macro focus heading into 2026, with chief US economist Michael Feroli warning that the softening in job conditions is becoming harder to ignore. In a note released Wednesday, he said weakening labour demand is now joining the well-flagged slowdown in labour supply, pointing to several quarters

Australian Household Spending in October 2025 +1.3% m/m expected +0.6%, prior +0.3% +5.6% y/y expected +4.6%, prior +5.1% — Trade Balance in October 2025 AUD4385mn expected 4219mn, prior 3938mn Imports +2.0% m/m prior +1.8% non monetary gold jumped (non-monetary gold is all gold traded or held for jewellery, investment or industry, excluding central-bank reserve holdings;

Earlier: Yuan nears 7 as US–China thaw lifts sentiment, but PBOC slows pace of appreciation — People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC

US stocks close marginally higher Trump says Witkoff meeting with Putin ‘reasonably good’. Trump adds no substantive details Tomorrow in the US the Challenger job cuts and US unemployment claims Crude oil futures settle at $58.95 Gasparino: Wall Street does not like Hassett. Rep Stefanik: Calls House Speaker an ineffective leader who is losing control

Charlie Gasparino is X’ing: Despite the headline, Hassett has extended his lead on Polymarkets. The number was about 67% yesterday. Number 2 on the list is Kevin Warsh. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD is up over 0.6% in trading today, and in the process is moving away from support levels tested earlier today near the 100 hour moving average and swing area at 0.57315, and moving toward key resistance targets near 0.5800. In the video above I talked about the technicals that have been driving this

The USDCAD is trading in an up-and-down trading pattern today. In the process, the price tested a support target at the 50% midpoint of the move up from the mid-September low. That level was also the low price going back to last Friday. The subsequent bounce saw the price move up to test a key

Republican representative Elise Stefanik, an ally to Pres Trump is criticizing House Speaker Mike Johnson: He is an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP conference heading into the midterm elections He certainly wouldn’t have the votes to be speaker if a roll call vote was made tomorrow. Believes that a majority of

The latest crypto market crash, with more than $1.2 trillion erased in the last 6 weeks, is the worst downturn crypto investors have experienced since 2022. Bitcoin, which posted an all-time high just recently, took the brunt of it, shedding more than 30% of its value and falling below $82k. This represents a seven-month low

Japanese stocks are off to a strong start today with the Nikkei 225 up by 1.1%. The climb has put the index back within striking distance of 50K and leaves it up 25.0% year-to-date, as one of the top global performers. That’s a nice gain for international traders given that the yen is flat year

The major European stock indices are closing mixed on the day: German DAX -0.12% France’s CAC, +0416% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.10% Spain’s Ibex +0.68% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.06% As London/European traders head for the exits, the major US stock indices are mixed Dow industrial average is up 191 points or 0.40% at 47667 S&P index

Prior54.6 Final Composite PMI 52.4 vs 52.1 prelim Prior 53.9 Key findings: Further, albeit slower, increases in new work and employment Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The service sector is likely to keep Germany’s growth just above zero in the fourth quarter. However,

The USDINR has continued its move to the upside from a technical perspective. In the video released yesterday, I spoke specifically to the short-term support near the 89.79 level. The subsequent low reached in earlier trading today found willing buyers at 89.835 just above that level . The level remains a risk defining level for

For what it is worth, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang has been seen entering Speaker the house Johnson’s office. Look for those buy orders from Capitol Hill (/S). Shares of Nvidia are down $0.23 or -0.13% at $181.24. The high price today reached $182.45. The low was at $179.11. Nvidia’s 100 hour moving averages at $183.60

Tariffs are not to blame for the jobs number Predicts US GDP growth of over 4% in 2026 Weak jobs number about shutdown, deportations. EU technology rules are costing them big time. European economies are attacking the AI development with rules Europe very much want a steel deal with US I am confident that the

The USDJPY is trading to a new session low in the process is testing a key swing area target near the 1.5500 level. In the forex quick look video above focused on the USDJPY, I talk to the technicals driving this currency pair right now for traders. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 28 November -1.4% vs +0.2% prior ECB’s Lane: Counterproductive to respond to near-term deviations Dollar continues to ease lower to start December trading The INR falls to a new all-time low with RBI expected to cut the repo rate on Friday Eurozone October PPI +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected UK

Maybe it’s time to start pricing in rate hikes in 2026. Here are some comments from Bullock: Inflation has surprised on the upside Output gap has probably closed, but it is uncertain We are likely already at the potential growth limit Labour market still a bit tight These are some of the most-hawkish central bank

Crude oil inventory build of 0.574M versus drawdown of -0.821 million estimate gasoline oil inventory 4.5M barrels versus build of 1.468 million estimate distillates oil inventory 2.1M barrels versus build of 0.707 million estimate. Cushing drawdown of -0.457M vs prev -0.068M The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude +2480K Gasoline +3100K Distillates +2880K. The

Treasury’s Lavorgna is speaking to Reuters and says: Expecting more growth in 2026 driven by measures emerging from the Trump tax act. Already starting to see the capex cycle turn up, signaling improving investment momentum. Full expensing rules for factories expected by year-end, supporting business investment and equipment spending. Trump policies focused more on supply-side

The GBPUSD pushed to a session high of 1.33142 early in North America, coming within five pips of the 200-day moving average at 1.33194. Sellers leaned against that level and forced a retreat to 1.3291, but buyers quickly regrouped and drove the pair back higher. That rebound has now taken the price above the 200-day

The major US indices are higher (Dow up 140 points, S&P up 20 points, and NASDAQ index up 62 points), yields are lower with the two-year down -2.6 basis points and the 10 year down -2.7 basis points, and the US dollar is lower. In this kickstart video for the North American session, I take

The US stock market experienced a captivating day of trading, marked by significant fluctuations across different sectors, highlighted by the contrasting performances of technology and auto manufacturing stocks. 🔍 Sector Overview Technology Sector: The tech sector encountered a tough day, with notable declines in software and semiconductor stocks. Microsoft (MSFT) led the downward trend with

Prior month 54.8. Preliminary 55.0 S&P Global services PMI for November 54.1 versus 55.0 preliminary S&P Global composite final for November 54.2 versus 54.8 preliminary. Last month 54.6. Details from S&P Global US Services & Sector PMI — Key Takeaways All seven U.S. sectors expanded in November, continuing growth seen in October. Most sectors grew

The dollar is down across the board again today and it’s been a tough week so far to start the new month. GBP/USD is leading the charge today, moving up by 0.5% to 1.3285 – its highest in five weeks. But if anything, do keep a close watch on EUR/USD as it nudges back up

The WSJ reports that Trump has cancelled interviews with Fed Chair candidates after homing in on a pick. The Timiraos report said interviews were scheduled for Wednesday with JD Vance were cancelled. No reason was given for the move and it wasn’t clear if the meetings would be rescheduled. There is no clear indication it

Prior month import prices 0.1% revised to 0.3%. Prior month export prices 0.1% revised to 0.3%. Import prices month to month 0.0% versus 0.1% expected export prices month to month 0.0% versus 0.1% expected Trade inflation remains low. The data is from September however This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil settled at $58.64, down $0.68 or –1.15% on the day. The high for the session reached $59.67, while the low dipped to $58.28. The market was driven largely by shifting headlines out of Russia. Early optimism over a potential U.S.-brokered peace proposal involving Envoy Witkopf and Jared Kushner helped push prices higher. But

ECBs Lagarde is speaking: Growth in economic activity should benefit from increased household spending and a resilient, more inclusive labor market. Indicators of underlying inflation remain consistent with the ECB’s 2% inflation medium-term target. They expect inflation to stay around their 2% target in the coming months. ECB will respond to flexibility to new challenges

Trump has normalized the idea of a 15 – 20% tariff. I’ve evolved on the idea of tariffs. Tariffs have not set off any inflationary mindset China has consistently cut prices for exports. I don’t believe tariffs are a tax The Supreme Court need to be prudent about undoing Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. He is optimistic

Canada Services PMI — Key Points Steep downturn: November saw the sharpest decline in service-sector activity since June as demand weakened amid ongoing economic uncertainty. PMI drops to 44.3: Down from 50.5 in October — the lowest since June and the 11th contraction in the past 12 months, signaling a steep contraction in activity. Weak

For those looking for the oil inventory data, there seems to be some technical difficulties in publishing the weekly data. There is some on confirmed reports that the oil inventory grew by 0.574M but that is once again unconfirmed. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 52.4 ISM non- Manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs 52.1 estimate Business activity 54.5 vs 54.3 last month. Employment 48.9 vs 48.2 last month. Best since May. New orders 52.9 vs 56.2 last month. Weakest the since September Prices Paid 65.4 vs 70.0 last month. Other components: Backlog of orders 49.1 versus 40.8 last month.

CNBC reports: The Information report that Microsoft lowered their sales quota is not true Microsoft did lower expectations for how quickly it can get its customers to spend on newer products, specifically agents shares of Microsoft are still down by $-8 or -1.64% at $481.86 The Information has changed the title of the article .

Stocks have taken a turn to the downside after a report from The Information that Microsoft has lowered its AI sales quotas. The company has lowered expectations for how quickly it can get its customers to spend on newer products, specifically agents. Multiple divisions have reduced how much salespeople need to grow sales of certain

Prior month industrial production revised to -0.3% from 0.1% industrial production 0.1% versus 0.0%. Manufacturing output 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate. Prior month 0.1% (revised from 0.2%) Capacity utilization 75.9% versus 77.3% estimate. Prior month 75.9% (revised from 77.4%) For the 3rd quarter IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1%. The month on month data

Fundamental Overview The Nifty 50 recently hit a new all-time high before giving back some of the gains. The Indian stock market, like many others, is driven by global risk sentiment. But idiosyncratic factors can weigh on performance, nonetheless. The aggressive US tariffs have been one of the main negative factors for India this year.

Prior was 52.5 Composite PMI 52.6 vs 52.6 prelim The fastest expansion in new services export business in three-and-a-half years Central to the latest upturn in services activity was rising new business inflows Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “November’s S&P Global Australia Services PMI indicated that growth of services activity

Prior month 42K revised up to 47K Monthly national employment -32K Goods-19 versus +9K last month Service -13K versus +33K last month small business -120 K (6 of the last 7 months have been negative. 1 to 19 employees -46K, 2249 employees -74K) medium businesses +51K large businesses +39K Sector changes. Education +30K Leisure hospitality

Market index 313.0 vs 317.6 prior Purchase index 186.1 vs 181.6 prior Refinance index 1041.9 vs 1090.4 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.32% vs 6.40% prior This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 52.3 Final Composite PMI 51.2 vs 50.5 prelim Prior 52.2 Key findings: Marginal expansion of business activity in November Fastest fall in employment since February Prices charged inflation lowest since January 2021 Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “November data revealed an abrupt end to the steady improvement in

It would be counterproductive to seek to respond to near-term deviations that are solidly expected to be transitory A sufficiently large and persistent deviation from the target requires a monetary policy response, regardless of its origin This is what ECB members have been repeating over and over again. The “sufficiently large and persistent” deviation I

Prior +0.1% Core CPI +0.4% y/y Prior +0.5% The struggle continues for the Swiss economy with headline annual inflation hitting 0% again. Core annual inflation is also seen easing further in November, now down to 0.4%. The clock continues to tick down as the SNB contemplates where they want to draw the line before reintroducing

Prior was 52.6 This is a five-month low as new orders softened. It follows the official PMI falling to 49.5 from 50.2 in October. The slowing data could spark another push for Chinese consumer stimulus. It’s something officials have pledged but haven’t really delivered. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

tradeCompass Summary Map for today’s bitcoin day traders Bullish above: $94,250 (price in bitcoin futures, BTC1!) Bearish below: $93,100 Primary bias right now: Cautious bearish while under $93,100 Key idea: Price is sitting right on the bearish threshold. If Bitcoin futures break back below $93,100 and stay there, tradeCompass favors short setups. If price instead

Prior -0.1% If you take energy prices (+0.1%) out of the equation, then euro area producer prices were stable on the month. The breakdown shows an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.1%), capital goods (+0.1%), and durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is offset by a decline in prices for non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%). This