Japanese Yen extends losses as Takaichi’s opposition to rate hikes weighs on the currency Renewed uncertainty around tariffs weighs on the Indian Rupee amid Trump threats Eurozone January final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelim The Australian dollar weakens as RBA’s Bullock signals patience on judging policy Gold’s momentum wanes as focus turns to US-Iran […]

We recognized in February that inflation was too high The economy is in quite a good position, policy judgments are difficult Have to be patient in judging policy There’s been some weakness in the Australian dollar after her comments. It looks like she doesn’t want to overreact to near-term data and take a more patient

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 409.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump says Iran advancing missile, nuclear programs despite negotiations Japan govmt nominates new BOJ board members as rate-hike path comes into focus SOTU Trump: Says tariffs stay despite Supreme Court loss, pivots to new global levy Nikkei hits record high as AI fears fade and yen weakens Oil holds near seven-month highs ahead of US-Iran

I find David Tepper’s investment in Whirlpool to be an interesting one and I’ve written about it before. He’s a macro investor who has done it better than almost anyone at Appaloosa . In Q3, he disclosed a nearly 10% stake in the appliance maker but so far it hasn’t proven to be a great

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlights are the final German Q4 GDP and the final Eurozone CPI report. The preliminary German Q4 GDP report beat expectations showing a 0.3% Q/Q growth. The preliminary Eurozone CPI figures saw headline CPI Y/Y coming at 1.7%, while the core CPI Y/Y printed at 2.2%. The

The Japanese yen has been declining against most major currencies throughout the entire session as Takaichi’s opposition for further rate hikes put downward pressure on the currency. There’s nothing in the near-term that could support the yen, unless we get a very hot Tokyo CPI report on Friday. As things stand, the yen should continue

FX Kickstart: Major Pairs Stalled in “Non-Trending” Ranges The US Dollar is starting the North American session on a mixed note. While the Greenback is lower against the Yen, it has found some footing against the Euro and Pound. Greg Michalowski highlights a market currently lacking a clear trend, with price action largely dictated by

OPEC meets this weekend and Reuters sources say they will consider a 137K bpd oil output hike. OPEC had paused production hikes in the first quarter of the year after a series of boosts last year. The report says OPEC is preparing for peak summer demand and that the hike will come from the eight

In an exclusive interview with Reuters, former Bank of Japan chief, Haruhiko Kuroda expressed concerns about potential inflationary upswing coming from Takaichi’s big spending plans and a weak yen. Kuroda is famous for leading the BoJ during the Abenomics era. He launched a massive monetary stimulus in 2013 in an attempt to bring Japan out

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed to a new record high on Wednesday, buoyed by a rebound in technology shares as concerns about artificial intelligence disruption eased and the yen weakened. The benchmark Nikkei rose 1.4% in early trade to 58,100 and above, surpassing its previous peak set earlier this month following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s

EUR/USD 1.1900 (EUR 5.09 bn) 1.1850 (EUR 2.19 bn) 1.1800 (EUR 3.91 bn) 1.1750 (EUR 1.82 bn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 2.92 bn) 155.00 (US$ 1.80 bn) GBP/USD 1.3550 (GBP 552.83 mn) 1.3475 (GBP 448.12 mn) USD/CHF 0.7790 (US$ 560.71 mn) 0.7725 (US$ 787.67 mn) USD/CAD 1.3650 (US$ 646.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.7150 (AUD 1.45 bn) 0.7100

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold pared back Monday’s gains yesterday as the price pulled back to retest the broken 5100 level. The bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned, which is something we expected given no changes to the big picture. In fact, Trump has already imposed new tariffs under

Prior +2.0% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.3% No changes to the preliminary estimates. Compared with December 2025, annual inflation fell in twenty-three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in three. In January 2026, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+1.45%), followed by

Firm January inflation keeps the RBA on a tightening footing, lifting May hike expectations and supporting the Australian dollar. Summary: Headline CPI 0.4% m/m; 3.8% y/y Trimmed mean 3.4% y/y, above forecasts Goods inflation firm; services still elevated Housing major contributor May hike odds increased Separately, construction data weak Australia’s January inflation data came in

Via oilprice.com: — Oil markets swung in both directions on Tuesday but ultimately closed lower as signs of improving US-Iran relations weighed on prices. WTI and Brent futures were volatile overnight, briefly edging higher during the European session amid limited oil-specific headlines. Sentiment shifted sharply, however, after Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Tehran is

Harvard-led research suggests AI can replicate most active-fund trading patterns, leaving true alpha concentrated in a smaller set of non-routine decisions. Summary: AI model predicted 71% of fund trades Neural network trained on 1990–2023 data Unpredictable trades linked to outperformance Routine activity appears systematic Larger, competitive funds less predictable Active-fee justification under scrutiny (ps. I

Japan’s latest BOJ nominations highlight how board composition could shape the pace of future rate hikes under Takaichi’s administration. Summary: Government nominates Toichiro Asada, Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan monetary policy board Both appointments subject to parliamentary approval Changes come amid gradual BOJ tightening Board balance key to future rate path Market wary

Japan’s services inflation stayed sticky at 2.6%, reinforcing wage pass-through risks and keeping the BOJ on a tightening bias. Summary: Corporate services prices +2.6% y/y in January, unchanged from December’s 2.6% Construction and temp staffing drove increases Gauge supports view of wage-driven inflation persistence BOJ ended stimulus in 2024 Policy rate lifted to 0.75% in

Oil is pinned near seven-month highs as traders weigh US-Iran diplomacy against conflict risk and a potentially heavy US crude stock build. Summary: Brent/WTI hover near seven-month highs US-Iran talks slated Thursday in Geneva Conflict risk sustains a risk premium Iran remains key OPEC producer API shows big crude build Gasoline/distillates reportedly declined EIA data

Martin Schlegel is the Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). He took over as chairman in 2024 and leads the SNB’s three-member Governing Board, which sets Switzerland’s monetary policy. He spoke Tuesday. Schlegel downplayed short-term deflation risks, keeps medium-term inflation focus, and leaves FX intervention on the table. Summary: SNB

Trump warned Iran is advancing missile and nuclear ambitions despite negotiations, demanding a clear pledge against nuclear weapons in a record-length State of the Union. Summary: Trump accuses Iran of advancing missile capabilities Claims Tehran pursuing longer-range systems Says negotiations ongoing but incomplete Says he prefers diplomacy towards a solution Seeks explicit renunciation of nuclear

Trump is reframing the Supreme Court tariff loss as a detour, not a derailment, as his team shifts the broad tariff base to Section 122 while keeping key sector and China-related tariffs intact. Summary: Trump addressed tariffs during his SOTU address Supreme Court ruled IEEPA doesn’t authorise tariffs (Feb 20, 2026) White House pivoted to

Strategists see near-term consolidation for the Nikkei before earnings growth and foreign inflows drive a break above 60,000 by 2027. Summary: Nikkei seen at 57,500 by mid-2026 Forecast lifted from November poll 60,750 projected by mid-2027 Foreign inflows accelerating AI theme supportive but selective Correction risk viewed as limited Japan’s Nikkei 225 is expected to

Goldman sees Japan’s rally extending on political stability and reform momentum — but sustainable gains hinge on ROE delivery. Summary: Takaichi’s landslide boosts political stability History suggests post-election multiple expansion Governance reform key to next leg ROE improvement central to re-rating Fiscal concerns easing post-election Foreign positioning improving, not stretched Reform delivery now critical Japanese

USD/CAD momentarily touched the highest level since January 26 today before fading back to unchanged on the day. The pair has been climbing for the past two weeks as the US dollar recovers. This is an interesting level for the pair as it tests resistance from the Feb 5 high of 1.3724. Some things to

This is just a post for data, I’ll have details and analysis posted separately. Here we go, added: Australia CPI beats estimates, lifting RBA hike odds and boosting Aussie dollar Background: Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The focus is the Australian CPI data for January: Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline Trump will speak later. State of the Union speech. His centrepiece economic policy has completely collapsed. He’s scrambling to recover: Trump considers new Section 232 tariffs after Supreme Court ruling This article was written by Eamonn

The NZDUSD has rebounded in the North American session after sellers failed to sustain a break below the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.5945. The pair briefly dipped to 0.5943, but the move lacked follow-through, triggering a bounce that shifted short-term momentum back toward the buyers. That recovery gathered pace once price

High-yield 3.455% WI level at the time of the auction Tail 0.1 basis points versus 6 month average of -0.5 basis points Bid to cover 2.63X vs 6 mother average of 2.63X Dealers 9.81% versus 6 month average of 10.7% Directs 34.3% versus 6 month average of 32.0% Indirects 55.9% versus 6 month average of

The GBPUSD continues to trade within a relatively tight consolidation range. Yesterday, the pair reached a high of 1.35344 and a low of 1.3474. Today’s price action marginally extended beyond both extremes, with the low dipping to 1.3471 and the high pushing to 1.3536. However, despite those slight breaks, the overall 65-pip range remains narrow

Goods price inflation was lower than expected, possibly reflecting China exports Last week’s headline inflation was pretty much where we thought we’d be Pill: Bearing down on inflationary pressures remains necessary This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Globally renowned broker XM, with over 15 million clients worldwide, has officially obtained a license from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya. This achievement marks a significant milestone in XM’s strategic expansion across Africa and reinforces its commitment to providing a secure and regulated trading environment for local investors. The granting of the CMA

The US Treasury will auction 2 year notes. Below is some color from BMO: Today’s $69 bn 2-year auction comes amid the bond-bullish tone-shift that has defined the last several weeks of price action in the Treasury market. While there isn’t a compelling outright discount with WI 2-year rates at 3.45%, there is a sizable

The USDCAD is pushing higher in early North American trading and is now testing the February high at 1.37241. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the late-January high at 1.37383, followed by the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.37572. Yesterday, the pair

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are rebounding today after yesterday’s declines of -1.04% and -1.13%, respectively. However, the recovery rally is already running into technical resistance, keeping the broader bias in question. For the NASDAQ, the 100-hour moving average — currently near 22,848 — is acting as a near-term ceiling. Price briefly pushed

Prior month -6 Details: Composite manufacturing index fell to -10 in February from -6 in January. Estimate was -8 Shipments dropped to -13 from -5 last month New orders decreased to -9 from -6 lat month Employment edged down to -7 from -6 last month Local business conditions index declined to -15 from -8 last

The USDCHF is trading in a tight consolidation today, confined to a modest 35-pip range as the market searches for its next directional catalyst. On the topside, price action has respected the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7769, with today’s high stalling just shy of that level at 0.7765. Sellers continue to

The US may be heading towards structurally higher unemployment, something the central bank cannot offset The Fed has maintained focus on economic outcomes across groups; this data is important in understanding labour market slack Hope that guardrails protecting Fed independence will be maintained Even with rising productivity, Fed needs to keep focus on inflation; responding

Prior was +1.4% House price index +0.5% m/m vs 0.0% prior Home price data from the FHFA: Prices +1.8% y/y vs +1.9% prior (revised to +2.1%) Prices 0.1% m/m vs +0.6% prior The US housing market’s deceleration has been the story for months now, and the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite continues to tell it clearly. The

The Swiss franc is not one that is talked about too often but as mentioned last week, it is certainly one key spot to take note of in the major currencies space. If not for geopolitical tensions, then at least in terms of added trade uncertainty now. That will just pile on the negativity to

Home Depot’s fiscal fourth quarter results paint a familiar picture: the American homeowner remains cautious, selective, and increasingly uncertain about the macro backdrop. The retailer posted $38.2 billion in revenue for the quarter ended February 1, a 3.8% decline year-over-year — though roughly $2.5 billion of that gap is explained by a missing 14th week

The AUDUSD ran into willing sellers earlier in the session at the 200-hour moving average currently at 0.70681, with bears leaning against that level on three separate tests. That repeated rejection kept sellers firmly in short-term control and helped fuel a downside extension into the European session early US session. The move lower pushed the

Prior was the lowest reading since 2014 at 84.5 Details: Present situation 120.0 vs 113.7 prior Expectations 72.0 vs 65.1 prior Jobs plentiful % vs 23.1% prior Jobs hard to get vs 20.8% prior The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index traced a dramatic arc through 2025, defined by a steep erosion of sentiment tied to

Tech stocks wobble while consumer electronics thrive The US stock market showcases a mix of performances today, with notable fluctuations in the technology and consumer electronics sectors. Investors at InvestingLive.com should remain astute as dynamic market forces present both opportunities and risks. 📊 Technology Sector: Struggling for Stability Software and Semiconductors: A difficult day for

Reserve Bank of Australia economist Plumb Will continue to focus on quarterly CPI data for forecasting Have also been analysing underlying inflation measures using monthly CPI Remain focused on quarterly trimmed mean, any change some way off Aim to assess which underlying inflation measures from monthly data will be preferred in a post-quarterly CPI world

Well, you can certainly bet that Beijing is smirking and if not laughing with glee over the whole situation. Their hard line stance against Trump looks to be paying off now as the US administration is forced to back down on the high tariffs applied against China. And one can reasonably assume that this will

Gold and silver are both pushing higher today, moving above and away from their key short-term moving averages. Of the two, gold is showing the stronger technical profile. Gold reclaimed its 100-hour moving average last Wednesday and, importantly, has held above it since. Friday’s trade brought renewed upside momentum, and that strength has extended into

AI could trigger most significant reorganization of work in generations Rise in unemployment from AI may not indicate increased slack Current neutral rate possibly higher than pre-pandemic amid soaring AI investment Job displacement may precede job creation as AI transition unfolds Standard monetary policy may not address AI-driven unemployment without stoking inflation Overall unemployment still

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped below 6%, and to the lowest level since September 2025. The break marks a meaningful psychological and financial shift for the housing market. Not long ago, rates were pressing toward 7%, and just one year ago the same rate stood at 6.89%. That’s nearly a full percentage

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer

Major US stock indices close lower as markets ponder uncertainty from tariffs RBA Economist Plumb Focuses on CPI for Forecasting Crude oil futures settle at $66.31. Buyers failed to keep momentum going. Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since September 2025 ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation in policy are in a good place Gold.

The dollar is having a bit of a choppy last few sessions, having to deal with geopolitical risks and the Supreme Court decision in shooting down Trump’s tariffs. The former is mostly centering around tensions between US and Iran right now. And despite uncertain and erratic policy handling by the US administration, the dollar isn’t

French business confidence fell roughly two points in February to 97 (unrounded 97.4) after the 99 (unrounded 99.3) reading in January. This puts a dent in the recovery optimism with this being the weakest estimate since October last year. Of note, the business climate continues to hold below the long-term average of 100 still. The

China’s central bank kept benchmark rates unchanged for a ninth month, balancing growth support with yuan stability. Summary: PBOC keeps 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5% Ninth consecutive month of unchanged benchmark rates Growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4, weakest since post-Covid reopening Yuan appreciation adds currency-stability considerations Policymakers balancing stimulus needs with

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being a modest-sized one for EUR/USD at the 1.1765 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance, so the impact of the expiries is likely to be less pronounced. If anything, it could just act

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to consolidate near monthly lows as weakness in software stocks has been putting a lid on the index. There’s also been lots of uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical side that’s been keeping the market on edge. The risks we had were the US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, the

Summary: Apple to begin assembling some Mac mini units in Houston in 2026 Production to take place at a Foxconn facility Move aimed at meeting local U.S. demand Majority of Mac mini output to remain in Asia Part of broader supply-chain diversification trend Apple plans to shift part of its Mac mini production to the

The ninth consecutive month without a change. More on the LPRs, and why they don’t matter so much any more, here: Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – China and Japan return This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The onshore yuan hit a 2½-year high as USD/CNY fell below 6.90, with the PBOC signalling greater tolerance for strength. Summary: USD/CNY falls to 6.8954, lowest in 2½ years (since May 2023, so a bit longer) Onshore yuan (CNY) hits fresh multi-year high Shanghai Composite rises 0.8% on market reopen PBOC sets firmer fix at

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer

This relates to their meeting last week here: BOJ governor Ueda says had regular information exchange with Japan prime minister Takaichi It was a short and quick meeting, with it lasting for less than 20 minutes at the time. Yet, it’s still enough for Takaichi to voice her concerns with Ueda on the matter. However,

Rabobank and UBS see the Swiss franc staying firm as safe-haven demand outweighs intervention risks. Summary: Rabobank and UBS expect CHF to stay well supported Safe-haven flows underpinned by strong Swiss fundamentals SNB easing or FX intervention seen as limited in impact EUR/CHF forecast trimmed to 0.91 (3-month, Rabobank), from 0.92 Strong franc a headwind

China’s CSI300 and Shanghai Composite rallied on reopen as investors cheered the U.S. tariff ruling’s potential export relief. Summary: CSI300 +1.4%, Shanghai Composite +1.2% at open Rally follows nine-day mainland holiday Investors cite U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling as positive for exports Hang Seng reverses after Monday’s 2.5% surge Analysts see potential easing of U.S.–China

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the French business confidence data which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US Consumer

It’s a near empty economic calendar today. I was expecting the People’s Bank of China to set its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) yesterday but I was out by 24 hours. Its today. Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 526bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. after maturities net drain is 926.4bn yuan, largest in more than 4 months This

The report says that Japan’s ministry of finance is considering revisions to the framework of its existing liquidity-enhancement auctions for JGBs. This is a move that is said to be intended to ease supply pressures on the super-long end of the curve in the bond market. For some context, the liquidity-enhancement auctions are ones that

Apple to move some Mac mini production to Houston in 2026 – WSJ China adds 20 Japanese firms to export control list, tightening dual-use trade China stocks jump as U.S. tariff ruling boosts export hopes USD/CNY drops to 2½-year low as onshore yuan surges China holds loan prime rates steady as growth slows and yuan

China moved to restrict dual-use exports to 20 Japanese entities, a fresh escalation in trade frictions amid already strained bilateral ties. Summary: China’s Commerce Ministry adds 20 Japanese entities to an export control “watch list” Measures ban exports of dual-use items to listed entities without licences Overseas parties also barred from re-transferring China-origin dual-use items

Crude oil futures are settling down $0.17 (-0.26%), but the broader technical picture remains constructive. Earlier today, price pushed to $67.28, the highest level since August 2025, before rotating lower into the close. Even with the pullback, crude is still up roughly 21% from the December low at $55.08, underscoring the strength of the recent

UBS sees gold climbing to USD 6,200 as geopolitics, Fed cuts and tight supply reinforce the bull case. Summary: UBS lifts conviction on gold, targets USD 6,200/oz in coming months Geopolitical risks seen staying elevated amid US–Iran tensions Fed easing cycle expected to continue, pressuring real yields Global gold demand tops 5,000 tonnes in 2025;

After the Supreme Court curtailed key second-term tariffs, the Trump administration is turning to Section 232 to pursue new national security levies. Summary: Administration considering new Section 232 tariffs on six industries Follows 6–3 Supreme Court ruling striking down many levies New 232 tariffs separate from recently announced global 15% levy Steel and aluminium 232

January CPI is set to show electricity-driven headline strength and still-firm core inflation, keeping a May RBA hike in play. Summary: Headline CPI seen at 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in January Annual inflation forecast at 3.6–3.7% y/y Electricity prices a key upside driver; fuel partly offsets Trimmed mean seen at 0.3% m/m, annual pace steady

The major US stock indices are closing down over 1% with the Dow industrial average down -1.66%. Shares of IBM tumbled -13.13% (that is a bad luck number). Shares of American Express were down -7.21%, and Visa fell -4.57%. Other big losers for the day with declines of over 5% include: CrowdStrike Holdings: -9.88% Snowflake:

ECBs Lagarde: Inflation and policy are in a good place She adds: Completing her term is my baseline. Lagarde’s current term as President of the European Central Bank runs through October 2027. Last week, she said her baseline intention is to complete her full term and remain focused on delivering price stability and policy continuity

Business confidence in Belgium dropped significantly in February, erasing the modest gains seen in January and falling back to levels last seen in May 2025, according to the National Bank of Belgium’s latest survey released today. The overall synthetic curve fell to -13.7 from -8.8 in January, a 4.9-point decline that underscores the fragile nature

The code word for the day is “Uncertainty.” Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs — their scope, timing, and impact on countries, industries, and index components — continues to weigh on markets. With little clarity on what policy will look like today or tomorrow, investors are de-risking. That uncertainty has pushed the broader indices sharply lower, with

USDCAD moved lower alongside the broader USD in the early Asian-Pacific session, extending the decline toward the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.36517. That level — previously broken to the upside — acted as a key technical support zone. Sellers pushed into it, but downside momentum began to stall, signaling profit-taking and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices rallied all the way back to the resistance around the 66.50 level after a report from Axios suggested that a war between the U.S. and Iran appeared increasingly likely. Traders hedged into the weekend risk driving prices higher. There was no escalation over the weekend, on the contrary, we got some

After the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s sweeping IEEPA tariffs on Friday, the White House immediately fired back, slapping a 15% global tariff on imports using Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Global Trade Alert took a look at US tariff rate changes based on a 15% universal tariff (with some exemptions)

General business activity: +0.2 (prev. -1.2) Production: 12.5 (prev. 12.2) New orders: 11.1 (unchanged) Capacity utilization: 11.8 (prev. 6.8) Employment: 7.5 (unchanged) Hours worked: 6.1 (prev. 0.7) Finished goods prices paid: 17.9 (unchanged) Raw materials prices paid: 31.7 (prev. 36.7) Wages and benefits: 31.9 (prev. 17.4) Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, with

Well, the timing of this is quite uncanny. Amid all the speculation surrounding Lagarde’s future, this leak is now popping up and Lagarde is being placed under scrutiny for receiving about €140,000 a year from the BIS as her role as a board member. The Financial Times reports that some ECB employees have voiced their

The USD is lower but off the lowest level. EURUSD Technicals EURUSD moved higher in the Asian session, reclaiming the 100-hour MA at 1.1799, but the rally stalled near strong resistance at 1.1830–1.1832 — the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range (1.1830) and the falling 200-hour MA (1.1832). The failure to break that ceiling shifted

Jan jobs data was a surprise and may be appropriate to hold rates if it continues in Feb Also possible that Jan jobs data was noise and would still argue for a cut in March if Feb jobs data is weak It is possible labor market has pivoted to a more sound footing after a

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1845 level. It isn’t one that holds too much technical significance but could act as a bit of a light ceiling to price action for the session ahead. That as it keeps

Everything about how Europe has negotiated tariffs has been a disaster. They were the one jurisdiction with the market size and diversification to stand up to US tariffs and they folded in pathetic fashion despite the likelihood — now proven — that the US Supreme Court would strike down tariffs. Now they want a do-over

Prior was +2.7% Factory orders ex-transport +1.0% vs +0.2% prior Revisions to durable goods orders: Orders -1.4% vs -1.4% prelim Ex defense -2.4% vs -2.5% prelim Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.8% vs +0.6% prelim This is mostly in-line but note the small improvement in core US orders. It’s tough to find a signal in

The U.S. stock market today presents a mixed picture, with some sectors surprising investors while others face pressure under unexpected dynamics. By examining a comprehensive heatmap of sectors, we see varying levels of performance impacting trading decisions and sentiments. 📊 Sector Overview Technology Sector: This sector is enduring a challenging day. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) is

It will be a light week in terms of scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Monday, the U.S. will release factory orders m/m and on Tuesday attention will be on the U.K.’s Monetary Policy Report hearings and the U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing figures. Wednesday will bring inflation

The news from Friday was of Trump’s tariffs found illegal: investingLive Americas market news wrap: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs Trump later replaced them with MOAR tariffs: That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The report says that the EU is set to put on hold the ratification process of its trade deal with the US after the latest changes to the US administration’s tariffs policy. Adding that they will be seeking out more details from Washington on what their plans are with the new tariffs in place. I

Headlines: The biggest winners and losers from the latest US tariffs shift US customs say will halt collection of IEEPA tariffs on 24 February US president Trump: The Supreme Court tariffs ruling has given me more power than before EU reportedly to press pause on US trade deal approval amid latest tariffs kerfuffle Is this

To recap, the biggest news hitting markets since Friday is the Supreme Court shooting down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs from April last year. The 6-3 decision now sees those tariffs, enacted under the IEEPA, are deemed unconstitutional/illegal. As such, the US administration has to halt collecting duties related to the tariffs imposed through that. So, what’s

US and Iranian negotiators are poised to meet in Geneva after Tehran submits a detailed nuclear proposal. Officials describe the talks as potentially the last diplomatic window before the Trump administration considers military action, though interim arrangements remain possible. Summary: US and Iranian negotiators expected to meet in Geneva Thursday Trump administration awaiting detailed Iranian

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got a boost on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The initial reaction saw gold coming under pressure but eventually the market turned around, and we reached a new monthly high as Trump imposed new tariffs under a different law. Overall, not much has changed on the

China is back from its week long ‘Spring Break’ Lunar New Year holiday today. The calendar is light. We’ve had some NZ data already. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

From the man himself: “The supreme court (will be using lower case letters for a while based on a complete lack of respect!) of the United States accidentally and unwittingly gave me, as President of the United States, far more powers and strength than I had prior to their ridiculous, dumb, and very internationally divisive

Bitcoin. Not just this though, ETH down 4.5% also, whole crypto complex getting hit. Daily chart looks headed back to the lows: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil opened slightly lower in early trade as markets balanced escalating Iran–US tensions against renewed nuclear talks and rising tariff concerns that threaten global demand. Summary: Oil opens slightly softer in Sunday evening Globex trade Iran–US conflict risk underpins geopolitical risk premium Fresh nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday temper escalation fears Rising tariff concerns weigh

The big news since Friday and over the weekend is of course Trump’s tariffs mess. The Supreme Court ruled against the US president in a landmark 6-3 decision, stating that Trump exceeded his constitutional authority by unilaterally imposing broad global tariffs under the guise of national emergency powers. The tariffs announced in April last year

Prior 87.6 Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.3 expected Prior 85.7 Expectations 90.5 vs 90.3 expected Prior 89.5; revised to 89.6 The headline reading is a six-month high as German business morale picks up in the early stages of the new year. That comes alongside an improvement in both the current conditions and expectations/outlook index. The

Services CPI has been slightly concerning in recent months Services CPI has not fallen as quickly or as far as hoped I am looking for service price inflation to normalise along with wage growth this year I have become more reassured that we are proceeding towards inflation normalisation at a reasonable pace Weaker than expected

Summary: FT reports Iran agreed €500m arms deal with Russia in December Contract covers 500 Verba MANPADS launchers and 2,500 9M336 missiles Deliveries scheduled in tranches from 2027 to 2029 Deal negotiated between Rosoboronexport and Iran’s defence ministry representative Tehran formally requested systems in July Earlier: NYT: Trump weighs limited Iran strikes as nuclear deal

Summary: NYT reports Trump weighing limited US airstrikes on Iran in coming days Potential targets: IRGC, nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure Broader campaign, including pressure on Khamenei, possible if strikes fail Parallel diplomacy continues alongside military planning Proposal from IAEA chief Rafael Grossi could allow limited enrichment for medical fuel Framework would let Iran retain token

The USD is heavy in Asia trade on the new tariff debacle. Japan is closed today for a holiday. China is NOT back from its holiday today. I thought they were but I’ll have to wait until Tuesday, February 24, 2026. HK shares are up, Hang Seng +1.4% or so. This article was written by

Prior +1.2% HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Prior +1.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the details, services inflation is the one that is keeping higher at 2.5% last month. Meanwhile, goods price inflation is actually recording a -0.2% annual change. Overall, that leaves core annual inflation at 1.7% in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is going to be the German IFO survey. The IFO is correlated with the German Composite PMI given that they measure basically the same thing. The Business Climate index is expected to tick higher to 88.3 vs 87.6 prior, but whatever the data, the market reaction

The USD is lower in early Asia trade. Its still VERY early, with thin liquidity, thinner than usual, due to the Japanese marekts being closed today for holiday. China is back, though, returning from their week-long Spring break / Lunar New Year holiday. USD down. – The Supreme Court ruling striking down much of President

Goldman raised its 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI forecasts to $60/$56 on tighter OECD stocks, while maintaining a 2026 surplus assumption. The bank sees firmer prices in 2027 but flags sanctions relief in Iran/Russia as a key downside risk. Summary: Goldman raises 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI by $6 to $60/$56 Assumes no Iran-related supply disruption and still sees

China urges US to drop unilateral tariffs after Supreme Court ruling Ethereum Futures Breakdown Accelerates Here’s why Bitcoin dropped sharply back under US$65K. No, its not a tariff tumble! BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai Goldman Sachs raises 2026 oil forecast, sees Brent at $60 by Q4 Bitcoin smashed lower,

Former BOJ board member Sakurai says a renewed yen slide could trigger a March rate hike, though April remains the more logical timing. He sees the policy rate rising toward 1.75% over coming years but warns against tightening too quickly. Via an interview with Reuters. Summary: Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai says March hike

I’ll have more to come on this separately … ADDED, ok, details here: BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability

Summary: Rolls-Royce is expected to announce a fresh share buyback of up to £1.5bn (~$2bn) with annual results this week, Sky News reported The company has not commented Rolls-Royce already reinstated payouts last year, unveiling a £1bn buyback alongside results Management has been running additional capital returns, including a £200m “interim” buyback ahead of FY25

Well, the news of note, from Friday, is of course: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs Karen was quick to throw a tantrum: That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% Guide to early FX rates, not signficantly changed from late Friday I’ll be back with weekend news soon. This article

ECB’s Lagarde urges clarity as US tariff turmoil returns. Summary: Lagarde warns renewed US tariff uncertainty risks fresh disruption Says businesses need clarity on trade and investment rules Hopes new tariff plans are “sufficiently thought through” and constitutional Notes consumers ultimately bore the cost of prior tariffs Defends central bank independence amid US political backdrop

Ethereum traders are seeing something unusual beneath the surface. On Feb 20, options flow across two Ethereum-linked ETFs told very different stories. One reflected institutional accumulation, the other showed retail caution. When flows diverge like this, it often matters more than the headline sentiment label. Let’s break it down. But first, the backdrop music from

Trump is raising the tariff he just announced yesterday from 10% to 15%. He announced on Truth Social: Based on a thorough, detailed, and complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American decision on Tariffs issued yesterday, after MANY months of contemplation, by the United States Supreme Court, please let this statement serve

The NYT reports: President Trump is planning to invoke new trade authorities in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning his sweeping tariffs, according to two people familiar with his plans, potentially including a new, across-the-board tariff on U.S. trading partners. This is no surprise, many government officials have said this was coming. The report

Fed’s Logan: I’m not fully convinced we are on a path all the way to 2% Policy is well positioned to deal with risks Worried about demand outstripping supply Is cautiously optimistic that economy on path for a return to target One of the biggest uncertainties is the tech sector On the labor side, doesn’t

Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffs US Q4 advance GDP +1.4% vs +3.0% expected US December PCE inflation +2.9% vs +2.8% expected Trump says he will invoke 10% Section 122 global tariff Atlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for the 1st quarter 3.1% University of Michigan sentiment index 56.6 versus 57.3 estimate Manufacturing PMI for

We are stepping into what might be the most consequential week of the Q4 earnings season. The spotlight is squarely on the AI complex, but we also have a massive slate of consumer and enterprise tech names ready to set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Here is the breakdown of the key

I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system. Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about

Comments from Trump and what he’s hinting at: “Proud of the justices that voted in favour” and “no way anyone can argue with those who dissented” The dissent was Kavanaugh, joined by Thomas and Alito. Kavanaugh’s dissent argued for a foreign affairs exception to the major questions doctrine and read IEEPA’s text more broadly. The

Tech struggles as communication services edge up: A mixed market day Today’s US stock market presents a dynamic landscape with tech giants faltering while the communication services sector displays resilience. Here’s a thorough breakdown of sector performances, significant movers, and the overall market mood shaping the day. 📉 Technology Sector: Pulling Back Software and Semiconductors:

The NASDAQ index has rebounded in the wake of the Supreme Court decision, pushing to an intraday high of 22,948.87. That rally brought the index to within roughly 13–14 points of the falling 100-hour moving average (currently at 22,961.75) — a level that has attracted early selling interest. Sellers leaned against the moving average on

The Atlanta Fed’s initial GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth came in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a solid start to the year. At the same time, the advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed growth of just 1.4% — a

Prior was +2.8% PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Core PCE Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.9% expected Prior +2.8% Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Consumer spending and income for December: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.5% (revised

A Supreme Court decision on key Trump tariffs is expected in the current opinion window (with Feb 20 highlighted), and JPMorgan’s trading desk outlines sharply different equity outcomes depending on whether tariffs are upheld, struck down, or swiftly replaced. With ~$124bn in customs duties through January, fiscal incentives may reinforce rapid “replacement” efforts if IEEPA

Market action in the wake of the tariff decision has been choppy. There aren’t many tariff/Supreme Court experts on trading desks, so markets are understandably confused. Trump and other administration officials have said many times that they have other opportunities to reconstitute tariffs. The initial reaction in markets largely suggests they’re taking that at face

The USD initially moved lower following the Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision striking down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariff authority. The greenback sold off in the immediate aftermath as markets reacted to the removal of tariff-related price pressures. However, the reaction has been mixed across asset classes. U.S. yields have pushed higher — with the 10-year

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for

Trump says the Supreme Court decision is a ‘disgrace’ and that he will find other ways to impose them, according to CNN. The thing is, IEEPA tariffs are immediately voided and that’s 60% of tariff revenue. I’d imagine there is rush to get those over the border and that’s going to create a huge trade

There is just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 level. Similar to yesterday, the expiries may factor into play in acting as a magnet for price action during the session ahead. However, the impact of the one for

Manufacturing flash index 51.2 versus 52.6. Prior month 52.4 Services PMI flash for February 52.3 versus 53.0 estimate. Prior 52.7. Composite 52.3 versus 53.0 last month The good news is that each of the a indices were above the 50.0 level indicating growth. The bad news is that each of the estimates were below the

Prior 1.3% revised to 1.2% Retail sales ex auto – +0.1% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised to 1.6% from 1.7% Sales C$70.0b Advance retail sale for January is expected at 1.5% Details: Retail sales fell -0.4% to $70.0B in December 3 of 9 subsectors declined, led by motor vehicle & parts dealers Core retail

Key Points for crude oil traders and investors: Crude oil futures have broken out of a classic daily bull flag pattern. The $65 area on crude is now a key line that separates strength from failure. UCO is forming higher lows near $25, showing buyers are stepping in on dips. As long as support holds,

Summary: Westpac says January’s jobs data show a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, but participation declines are doing most of the work. Underlying hiring remains subdued, and a rebound in participation could lift unemployment back toward 4.5% in coming months. — Westpac says Australia’s January labour force report paints a steadier picture than the volatility

Final Q3 GDP was +4.4% Consumer spending (PCE):+2.4% GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.2% vs +2.6% expected GDP price index (GDP deflator): vs +2.9% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +2.7% vs +2.6% expected Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): 2025 annual GDP at about 2.23% Contributions to GDP in percentage points: Government -0.9 vs

The group is the one managing the infamous Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), which provides fiscal budget projections and economic analysis of major US legislation without advocacy. And by their estimates, the US could owe over $175 billion in tariff refunds should the Supreme Court rule against Trump’s broad emergency tariffs. As a reminder, the

The major US indices are opening mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.37%. The S&P index trading above and below unchanged, and the NASDAQ index up around 0.20%. As a reminder The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to release opinions this morning, with announcements typically issued at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on scheduled opinion

In a 6-3 decision, the US Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. “The Government thus concedes, as it must, that the President enjoys no inherent authority to impose tariffs during peacetime,” the Supreme Court ruled. “If Congress were to relinquish that weapon

Blue Owl permanently restricted withdrawals from its $1.6bn private-debt fund, selling $1.4bn of loans at 99.7% of par and planning a 30% NAV distribution in Q1. El-Erian questioned whether it’s an early warning sign for private credit, though not a 2008-scale threat. Summary: $1.6bn Blue Owl Capital Corp. II fund permanently restricts investor withdrawals. Blue

Japan’s February flash PMIs strengthened across the board, with composite output rising to 53.8 and manufacturing gaining momentum. Export demand surged, backlogs hit record highs and price pressures firmed, while business confidence improved. Summary: Composite PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.1), fastest growth since May 2023. Services PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.7), quickest pace since May 2024. Manufacturing

University of Michigan sentiment index for February final: Sentiment 56.6 versus 57.3 current conditions 56.6 versus 57.7 expectations 56.6 versus 56 6 preliminary 5 year inflation 3.3% versus 3.4% preliminary 1 year inflation 3.4% versus 3.5% preliminary From Consumer Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment stagnated this month with very little change, just 0.2 index points higher

The bounce here sees silver trade up by over 3% today to now above $81. It’s a solid recovery from the lows on Tuesday, which saw a dip just under the $72 level at the time. The price swings this week are not as volatile as what we’ve seen in late January to early February

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for

Prior 49.1 Services PMI 53.4 vs 52.4 expected Prior 52.4 Composite PMI 53.1 vs 52.3 expected Prior 52.1 Key Points: Business activity growth ticks up to four-month high in February Comment: Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Hurray, German industry is growing again.

Prior +0.4% Retail sales +4.5% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.5%; revised to +1.9% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +2.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +5.5% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.1%; revised to +2.5% That’s an impressive beat in terms of the monthly figure, with the headline being

Prior 51.6 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.5 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.3 The most notable thing here is the rebound in the manufacturing sector, with the reading there being a 44-month high. That is largely led by the recovery in Germany, which saw its industry return to expansion territory

MUFG says recent dollar gains driven by stronger U.S. data and cautious Fed minutes are unlikely to last. Political uncertainty and concerns about Fed independence under President Trump may keep investor sentiment toward the greenback fragile. Summary: MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says recent U.S. dollar strength is unlikely to be sustained. Durable goods, housing and industrial

Despite the Fed staying in pause mode to start the year, market expectations are still leaning towards more rate cuts down the road. And that is reflected by the pricing in Fed funds futures as well. Currently, we’re still seeing traders price in ~57 bps of rate cuts by year-end. The recent solid US economic

Will not pursue reckless fiscal policy that undermines market confidence To push bold investment through multi-year budgets and long-term funds The necessary spending will be funded through the initial budget as much as possible Will steadily lower the debt-to-GDP ratio and restore fiscal sustainability To maintain market trust and clarify concrete fiscal indicators Will ensure

Prior 54.0 Manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.8 Composite PMI 53.9 vs 53.2 expected Prior 53.7 Key Findings: Rebound in UK private sector business activity continues in February, but job losses persist Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The early PMI data for February bring further signs of

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Given the market pricing, we will likely need surprisingly soft data for the Eurozone to trigger a decent market reaction as traders could start betting on rate cuts. Better than expected data is

Prior 48.4 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.2 Composite PMI 49.9 vs 49.7 expected Prior 49.1 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.2% The much softer reading here owes a lot to base effects, in particular the impact of energy prices. That is also the main reason for the drag on the year-on-year reading, which was 3.0% lower than January 2025. When energy prices are excluded, producer prices in January 2026 rose by 0.6% compared with

INR tests 91 but steadies as suspected RBI selling checks holiday-thinned, NDF-led pressure. Summary: INR last: 90.9450 on the interbank matching system after briefly slipping past 91. Traders said the Reserve Bank of India likely sold U.S. dollars before the local spot open to prevent a cleaner break above 91/$. Offshore 1-month NDF had pointed

Lagarde signals intent to finish ECB term, amid politically sensitive succession chatter. Westpac warns Australia’s unemployment rate masks soft demand and falling participation FX INTERVENTION: Reports the Reserve Bank of India is selling USD/INR to support the rupee Goldman: Gold to grind higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026 on strong demand NZD, AUD fall as RBNZ

Japan inflation cools sharply in January, easing near-term pressure on the BoJ. Summary: Headline CPI y/y: 1.5% (exp. 1.6%, prev. 2.1%) — lowest since March 2022. Core CPI (ex fresh food) y/y: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.4%). Core-core CPI (ex food & energy) y/y: 2.6% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.9%). National CPI ex fresh food &

Ether futures analysis: medium-term structure stabilizing after heavy two-sided trade Ether futures are trading near $1,960 after a volatile stretch that saw sharp downside pressure followed by responsive buying. The broader crypto space remains sensitive to macro headlines and equity sentiment, but ETH is currently attempting to stabilize rather than extend lower. What underlying crypto

For months on end, it has been hard to ignore the political side of things when viewing the Japanese yen outlook. The snap election results earlier this month continued to put the focus on that, with intervention risks as high as ever at the moment. The general feeling is that the yen is ready to

RBNZ signals steady hand on rates, nudging NZD lower and dragging AUD with it. Summary: NZD and AUD both fall, with Kiwi leading declines during Asian trade. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr (Breman remarks cited) says inflation likely already back inside target band in Q1. RBNZ confident inflation will return to the 2% midpoint within 12

Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal she expects to complete her term as ECB president through October 2027, dampening speculation of an early departure that could allow France to influence the succession before its 2027 election. Summary: Christine Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal (gated) she expects to serve as ECB president until October 2027.

This is just a post with the data. I’ll have more, analysis and implications posted separately. Note that the 1.5% overall pace is below 2% for the first time since March 2022. The latest on the BoJ: BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY JBA chief says

Goldman sees gold grinding higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026, with upside skew from diversification. Summary: Goldman expects central bank gold buying to re-accelerate in 2026 at the pace seen in 2025. This is in a conservative base case that assumes no additional private-sector diversification beyond current trends. Goldman’s core view: central bank demand plus private

The oil market continues to signal a rising chance of US military intervention in Iran. Oil had been bouncing around in a range of $62-$66 as headlines around Iran shifted the narrative but today crude broke out. It’s up $1.34 to $66.53 and has simultaneously broke above the October high. Oil briefly bounced around today

NQ (Nasdaq Futures) analysis: Energy heats up, Tech cools down as rotation pressure builds Nasdaq futures (NQ) are trading around 24,844, modestly lower on the session. The broader S&P 500 heatmap shows internal divergence rather than broad liquidation, while crude oil futures (CL) are trading near $66.46, up about +2.17% on the day, confirming renewed

Canadian Tire reported Q4 numbers today and the read-through on the Canadian consumer is clear: they’re still spending and there are no indications of weakness. Comp sales came in at +4.2% across all banners, with SportChek ripping at +9.5% and Mark’s up 7.2%. Normalized EPS jumped 38% to $4.47. What’s interesting from the call this

Prior was +8530K Gasoline -3213K vs -284K exp Distillates -4566K vs -1440K exp Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.4% exp The huge swings in this report continue. The API data from late yesterday showed: Crude -609K Gasoline -312K Distillates -1560K WTI crude oil was up $1.46 to $66.65 per barrel. The market is focused on the

The Minneapolis Fed President is something of a hawk lately and is out with some comments: Fed is close on both mandates Crypto is “utterly useless” AI could be a boost to productivity in the next 5-10 years Fed is cautious about using AI internally Fed is committed to making the best decisions based on

Walmart shares are indicated flat in the pre-market despite what looks like a solid beat on the top and bottom line. The quarter itself was strong — but the guidance is pointing to a deceleration. Shares initially fell on the weaker guidance but the CFO said it’s prudent to start the year with conservative guidance

There were weeks of breathless commentary about 5% GDP growth in the US in the fourth quarter and now here we are — less than 24 hours from the release — and the tracker has been revised all the way down to 3.0%. The quarter started off with a super-strong trade balance reading for October

Trump says: We have to make a meaningful deal with Iran It has to be a meaningful deal or something bad will happen Confirms he ordered 22 more B2 bombers ordered to Middle East We will find out about Iran in about 10 days We may have to take it a step further on Iran

Prior was -9.3% Pending sales index vs 71.8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq failed to rally on the slightly soft US CPI report last Friday and continued to range. We now have another major risk for the market as a potential US-Iran war could trigger a big selloff. In fact, we got a report from Axios yesterday suggesting that a war between the U.S.

Tech giants falter while consumer defensive stocks rally Sector Overview The US stock market is encountering a mixed session today, as tech giants experience downturns, while consumer defensive stocks shine brightly. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, is facing challenges with widespread declines, heavily impacting market stalwarts. 📉 Semiconductors: Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold started to find some footing yesterday as risks of a US-Iran conflict increased. In fact, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.

The present situation catch up is that Switzerland is squaring off against deflationary pressures once again. While not quite yet reaching deflation territory, the worries are mounting as inflation pressures have fallen off dramatically in the second half of last year. Core prices are still hanging in there but it feels like only a matter

We are getting close to some sense of where monetary policy is balanced between the inflation objective and full employment The unemployment rate has gone up and that’s very much of a concern On January inflation data: these are good numbers from headline perspective and also from core With respect to core inflation, not quite

Japanese firms remain wary of fiscal discipline under Takaichi, even as concerns over China tensions ease. Summary: Two-thirds of Japanese firms express concern about PM Takaichi’s fiscal discipline Markets rattled by proposed temporary food tax suspension IMF urges fiscal restraint to maintain bond market stability Fewer firms now fear business fallout from China tensions Weaker

The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes quietly remove December’s “2% in 2028” timing, underscoring uncertainty. Summary: January minutes drop the explicit “2% by 2028” timing that appeared in December Staff now say inflation is “slightly higher, on balance” than the December forecast Tariff effects are expected to wane around mid-year, with inflation then

RBNZ sees the cutting cycle as done, but weak consumption and sticky inflation keep risks two-sided. Summary: RBNZ’s Silk says the central scenario is the easing cycle is over, with risks both ways Downside risk: weak consumption and a softer household recovery Upside risk: sticky inflation, meaning tightening remains possible if pressures persist RBNZ says

The FOMC minutes stated that Jerome Powell was selected to serve as Chair for 2026, with the appointment lasting until a successor is formally chosen. In practical terms, that means Powell would continue to preside over the FOMC, including at meetings later than May, provided he remains a Federal Reserve Governor and the incoming Chair

The report mostly highlights how the US has been pressuring Canada on multiple fronts to get what they want out of any deal. And the crux of it mostly underscores the notion that the US administration currently views that the USMCA pact is not one that is set in stone. That being it is a

BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY NVDA Stock Analysis Shows It Is Stronger Than You Might Think RBNZ to increase monetary policy decisions to eight per year from 2027 Mega-cap tech most under-owned in 17 years, says Morgan Stanley South Korea KOSPI hits record high as

The rising tensions and expectations of a potential military conflict over the weekend is now keeping markets on edge. Oil prices rallied yesterday, with WTI crude moving up by over 4% to $65 levels now. The jump also coincides with a solid rebound off the 200-day moving average once more, holding since the start of

Summary: JPMorgan says renewed FX hedging by foreign investors could add fresh pressure on the US dollar Stronger non-US currencies are increasing incentives to hedge US equity exposure Fed rate hikes are seen as off the table, reducing yield support for the dollar AUD and NZD forecasts upgraded; upside risks flagged for EUR Bank remains

If there was a fight on the street between two strangers would you join in? That’s the analogy that traders would consider when there is high drama in a particular stock or sector. Right now it’s software stocks as their being slammed lower on fears that AI will disrupt the sector. Unless you already had

Hanzawa says that: “There is a reasonable possibility that the BOJ will raise interest rates as early as in March or April.” For now, markets are not really expecting one to come next month at least. That as the Japanese central bank will still have to wait on how the spring wage negotiations play out.

Headlines: Geopolitics in focus in the second half of the week Oil prices surge amid US-Iran war risks: a conflict could trigger a massive spike Renewed US-Iran tensions lift gold prices as traders hedge into the weekend risk Trump reportedly mulls shaking up North American trade pact, leaving Canada on the outs Foreign holdings of

Economists bring forward BOJ hike expectations and see yen intervention risk near 160. Summary: All 76 economists expect the BOJ to hold rates steady in March Majority now see policy rate at 1% by end-June, earlier than pre-election view Growing concern about fiscal expansion and yen weakness 69% expect currency intervention if USD/JPY nears 160

Here are a couple of views from market analysts on the EUR/USD currency pair, with it hovering around the “sweet spot” for the ECB. As we know, the central bank is viewing it as being “complicated” if price does move towards the 1.20 level. So, keeping as it is now would be somewhat comfortable for

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market is still pricing 58 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for the

This builds on the headlines from yesterday: ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires ECB says Lagarde remains committed to her role as president The latest report here cites four sources in saying that Lagarde told colleagues in a private message that she remains focused on her job

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices recouped all last week’s losses as risks of a US-Iran conflict increased. In fact, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran

If the outlook for inflation changes, committee will adjust policy stance to ensure inflation returns to target Wage growth is modest, we do have spare capacity There are uncertainties about how firms adjust pricing behaviour as the economy recovers Seeing consumption starting to increase, stabilizing job market and falling inflation provide support Household consumption starting

This is a day later than normal this week due to the US holiday on Monday. — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The

The Aussie jobs data (preview here) is the focus of the data calendar here today. Note that while Singapore is back from holiday today mainland China and Hong Kong are still out. Liquididity in markets will be somewhat thinner than usual. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year notes at a high yield of 4.664%, which tailed the when-issued level (4.644%) by 2.0 basis points — a sign of softer demand. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.36X, below the 6-month average of 2.66X, reflecting weaker overall participation. Dealers were forced to take down 17.6%

The Dow and S&P rose for the 3rd straight session while of the NASDAQ index increase for the 2nd in a row. Although higher, the major indices are closing near the middle of the data trading range. Yields moving higher and they slightly more hawkish Fed led to a rotation off of the highs for

There are a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1790-00 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could play a key role in terms of limiting price action on the day. The expiries are

The USDCAD is pushing to fresh highs for the day — and the week — as broad USD strength drives the pair higher. What makes the move notable is that it’s occurring despite a sharp rally in crude oil, which is up 4.59% on heightened geopolitical tensions following a reported U.S. strike on Iran. Normally,

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. The focus remains on the US-Iran tensions as risks of a military conflict increased following yesterday’s Axios report saying that a war was looking increasingly

NVIDIA stock analysis: underlying activity suggests cautious bullish bias as NVDA outperforms NDX and peers NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading near ~$188 after rebounding sharply from the ~$170 area, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) remains in a broader repair phase below recent highs near ~$26,000. Technology shares have experienced volatility, but NVDA has shown relative resilience

In wrapping up the 2025 year, foreign holdings of US Treasuries dropped slightly in December to $9.27 trillion. That compares with the peak seen in November at $9.36 trillion. The $88.4 billion drop might not seem much but it still represents the largest monthly decline since late 2022. But after hitting a record high in

Japan’s machinery orders rebound sharply, reinforcing capex strength despite fiscal caution. Summary: Core machinery orders surged 19.1% m/m in December vs 4.5% expected Annual growth jumped to 16.8% y/y vs 3.9% forecast Rebound follows sharp November declines Data support the BOJ’s outlook for continued economic expansion Corporate survey (report earlier) shows ongoing fiscal caution despite

S&P and Dow industrial average closehigher for the 3rd consecutive day RBNZ Governor Breman: Not at all comfortable with having inflation at 3.1% FOMC Minutes: Almost all Fed officials favored holding rates steady Fed’s Bowman still concerned about labor market, says recent jobs report ‘a bit strange’ Bitcoin Technicals:The price of bitcoin is consolidating in

Netflix stock analysis: buyers quietly rebuilding control on the medium-term structure NFLX is trading near $78, rebounding from the $75 area and approaching resistance at $79-$80. Performance has been weak across multiple timeframes, with the stock down apx. 30% over 3 months and 35% over 6 months, highlighting the broader corrective backdrop. Two major points

Summary: Analysts expect a moderation in employment growth in January following December’s outsized gain, with the unemployment rate seen ticking slightly higher. The labour market is viewed as broadly steady rather than re-tightening, though January’s seasonal volatility adds uncertainty. — Australia’s January labour force survey will be closely watched as policymakers assess whether the recent

Two officials dissented in favor of 25 basis point rate cut at Jan. meeting (Waller and Miran) Almost all participants supported maintaining rates at 3.5%-3.75% Several participants open to ‘two-sided’ guidance including possible rate hikes Vast majority judged downside risks to employment had diminished Most officials saw risk of inflation stalling above 2% target Staff

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with price action compressing after the prior directional move. On the hourly chart, the market has been tracking along an upward-sloping trendline that connects the February 12 low to the February 17 low. That trendline has quietly acted as near-term support, helping to steady price during recent pullbacks. Today,

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is an interesting case as she turned dovish last year as she as being considered for Fed Chair. She hasn’t abandoned that position but highlighted something that many in the market are puzzled by. A number of US labor market indicators have shown weakness lately but then last Wednesday there was

Iran foreign minister: There have been good developments compared to last round of talks US February NAHB housing market index 36 vs 38 expected February Empire Fed manufacturing survey +7.1 vs +6.98 expected Canada January CPI +2.3% y/y vs +2.4% expected Fed’s Goolsbee: Servies inflation is not tame Fed’s Barr: Prudent for Fed to take

The ECB has won the battle against inflation Inflation is not too low in France French inflation undershooting on temporary factors Decision to leave early is personal Villeroy is the governor of the French central bank and he’s generally considered a dove, although he changed his stance to neutral several months ago like most other

Yesterday oil and gold prices sank after Iran’s foreign minister had an upbeat take following meetings with US officials but today a leak is sending the opposite signal. WTI crude oil is up $2.18 to $64.51 Gold is up $121 to $4998 The gains — and a US dollar rally — have been driven in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett crossed a line today when he said the authors of a paper who said US companies were paying tariffs should be ‘disciplined’. The paper in question concluded that 90% of the tariff burden is being shouldered domestically and he called the “the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the

Prior was +0.4% Capacity utilization 76.2% vs 76.5% expected Manufacturing output +0.6% vs +0.4% expected The Federal Reserve’s industrial production data for the fall was complicated by delayed releases stemming from the government shutdown, with October and November figures published jointly on December 23 and December data following on January 16. Despite the reporting disruptions,

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are posting solid gains today, with the S&P up 0.85% and the NASDAQ higher by 1.25%. After recent consolidation and downside probes, buyers are stepping back in — but key technical levels will determine whether this bounce turns into something more durable. NASDAQ: Key Levels Define Control The

Doesn’t comment on meeting with Ueda or FX Hopes BOJ works closely with the government Wants to durably achieve 2% inflation target accompanied by wage grains No change to our stance to seek market confidence in Japan’s finances by achieving fiscal stability, stably lowering debt-to-GDP ratio The start of this year looked like 2026 could

It’s rather common to see former BOJ policymakers deliver bold remarks after they have left the central bank. And this time is no different, with Yamamoto offering up some comments in an interview with MNI. He is one to have spent 36 years at the BOJ, before leaving to head the Office KY Initiative. His

Prior month housing starts 1.246M Prior month building permits 1.411M Housing Starts (December SAAR) 1,404,000 total starts vs estimate of 1.309M +6.2% m/m (vs. 1,322,000 in November). Last month -4.6% -7.3% y/y (vs. 1,514,000 in Dec 2024) Single-family: 981,000 (+4.1% m/m) 5+ units: 402,000 2025 total starts: 1,358,700 (-0.6% vs. 2024) Building Permits (December SAAR)

This relates to the earlier story here: ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires The central bank refuting the report isn’t surprising and with things like this, it will never be confirmed until it is officially announced. So, don’t expect any real confirmation by the ECB on this

Prior was +5.3% Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.3% expected Prior ex-transport +0.4% Durable goods ex-defense -2.5% vs +6.5% prior Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% Shipments +1.0% vs -0.2% prior (revised to -0.3%) USD/JPY was trading at 153.66 ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 60 bps

Prior +3.4% Core CPI +3.1% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.2% The inflation picture continues to point to some softening, but not to the degree to make the BOE feel comfortable enough. The drop in headline annual inflation is largely due to base effects, with energy prices being the main factor. Overall prices for motor

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The

The showing yesterday was a bit of a mixed one but it continues to highlight some resilience in dip buying in US equities for now. That despite all the concerns on the AI trade and software stocks in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1% overnight but rallied in

Headlines: The New Zealand Dollar drops across the board as RBNZ disappoints the hawks The risk mood picks up in European morning trade A major war between US and Iran looks imminent – report ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires ECB’s Villeroy: The ECB has won the

Sector Overview The technology sector is making significant strides today, led by semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA), which has soared by 2.01%. The semiconductor segment, despite some declines such as AMD dipping 2.70%, is buoyed by positive performances from companies like Texas Instruments (TXN) and Analog Devices (ADI), which are up 0.45% and 3.48% respectively. Meanwhile,

In today’s Kickstart video, I break down the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. The dollar is modestly stronger overall, up about 0.23% vs JPY, barely higher by 0.08% vs EUR, and slightly lower by 0.05% vs GBP. So while the USD tone is firmer against the yen, it’s more mixed elsewhere. Technically,

Westpac’s Leading Index slowed to near-flat in January, signalling growth momentum has slipped back to trend. Consumer and housing weakness offset commodity support, with GDP still seen at 2.5% in 2026. Summary: Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slows to +0.02% in January (from +0.44%). Growth momentum shifts from slightly above trend to broadly in line with

The FOMC meeting minutes won’t be the only standout event on the economic calendar today. This is one that will also be heavily watched by traders and investors, that especially since the US dollar has been heavily scrutinised in recent months. For all the talk about de-dollarisation and market players selling US assets, it hasn’t

AI may not yet have boosted corporate profits or enhanced employee productivity, but it has already created a shortage of memory chips, critical components in the technology industry, as manufacturers prioritize supply for hyperscalers over the chips used in laptops and smartphones. Tesla, Apple, and other big companies have already warned that DRAM shortages, the

Earlier, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. They also noted that, given Trump’s recent military build-up and escalated rhetoric, it may be difficult for

There are earnings weeks where volatility is isolated. And then there are weeks where positioning across multiple sectors is already stretched, and earnings become the release valve. This one feels like the latter. Walmart, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Analog Devices, and Deere do not share business models. What they share right now is elevated options pricing

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The

Wall Street showed much resilience yesterday, with the S&P 500 once again hanging on a key technical support level. That’s leading to a further bounce today with US futures now sitting up 0.6%. In Europe, that’s also translating to more solid gains across the board as the risk mood perks up. DAX +0.8% CAC 40

The S&P 500 looked like it would continue its malaise this week but after a poor start, it’s turned around nicely. The index is now at a session high, up 20 points, or 0.3% to 6858. That’s 70 points above the session low from the mid-morning. Lately we’ve seen some late selloffs so I don’t

The latest FT report says that Lagarde is expected to depart from the ECB well before her term as president expires, according to a person familiar with her thinking. It is said that ideally she wants to make an exit before the French presidential election in April next year. In doing so, it will allow

The sources cited note that there is currently no evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran on the horizon. At this stage, the report says that Trump’s military and rhetorical build-ups is going to prove tough to back down from, especially if without any major concessions from Iran regarding its nuclear program.

5PAY had an exciting 2025, and it’s kicking off 2026 with even more exciting news. After taking home an award for offering the best payment gateway APAC, the company is very proud to announce its new award win, but this time in the MEA region – ‘Best Payment Gateway MEA’ at the prestigious UF AWARDS

Japan’s manufacturers rebounded in February to +13, but services sentiment eased to +25, highlighting an uneven recovery. Forward indicators point to modest softening into May. Summary: Reuters Tankan: manufacturers index +13 in Feb (vs +7 Jan), highest since November. Non-manufacturers slip to +25 (vs +32 Jan), signalling softer services momentum. Machinery strongest; transport machinery weaker

USD/INR is expected to open flat as mildly firmer US front-end yields support the dollar, while persistent RBI offers around 90.70–90.80 cap upside and keep the pair range-bound. Summary: USD/INR seen opening largely flat around 90.66–90.70, with push-pull forces intact. Mild hawkish repricing in the US (front-end yields firmer) is supporting the dollar. Dollar index

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.4% vs +0.4% y/y prelim Prior +0.7% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The IMF urged Japan to continue gradual rate hikes toward neutral by 2027 and warned against cutting the consumption tax, highlighting fiscal risks as Takaichi’s government pushes ahead with tax relief plans. Summary: International Monetary Fund urges Japan to keep raising rates gradually to neutral by 2027. Warns against cutting the consumption tax, saying it

The Scotiabank Global Equity Research team dropped a meaty note this morning breaking down six major gold bull cycles over the past 50 years, and the conclusion is pretty straightforward: this one isn’t over. Gold is sitting around $5,025/oz right now, up 209% from the October 2022 low of $1,628. That’s a heck of a

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data came mostly in line with expectations, so it didn’t change anything in terms of market pricing. The BoE is still expected to cut rates at the next meeting. Looking ahead, we don’t have much on the agenda other than

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision and press conference is the focus for the session here. RBNZ statement due 18 February at 2pm New Zealand time (0100 GMT / 2000 US Eastern time on Tuesday 17 February). Previews: RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Likely RBNZ on

Goldman raises its AUD/USD path to 0.72–0.74 over 12 months, citing RBA hawkishness, relative policy divergence and valuation support, while flagging commodity and global risk risks. Summary: Goldman Sachs lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.72 (3m), 0.73 (6m), 0.74 (12m). Upgrade driven by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and expectation of another May hike. AUD

RBNZ sees inflation falling toward target as recovery slowly builds, stays dovish USD/INR steady as US yields support dollar, RBI offers cap upside Japan outlines US investment projects, including $33bn gas power for data centres RBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodative Recap – RBNZ holds at 2.25% but brings forward

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, signalling inflation is returning to target while revising its future rate path slightly higher. Policy remains accommodative for now, but gradual normalisation is expected. Summary: Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves OCR unchanged at 2.25%. Inflation slightly above 1–3% band at end-2025 but expected back inside target this

This post is just for getting the decision out quickly. Added – MUCH more here, details analysis etc: RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higher NZD/USD has been marked a little lower on the announcement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held rates at 2.25% but brought forward the implied timing of its first hike, signalling a slightly firmer outlook than in November while maintaining that policy will remain accommodative for now. Summary: Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, as expected. Policy still described as accommodative for some time. OCR

A new CIBC equity research note caught my eye this week. It’s about the waste industry — not exactly the sexiest corner of the market — but it lays out a framework that I think applies to a much broader set of companies. The core idea: AI can add 130 to 270 basis points of

Governor Breman reinforced the RBNZ’s “accommodative for some time” stance while acknowledging a possible year-end hike, stressing any move depends on stronger growth and inflation pressure and that normalisation would be gradual. Summary Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman reinforced the post-decision message: policy stays accommodative, with only gradual normalisation ahead. Breman said

In line data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, reiterated that policy will stay accommodative while inflation returns toward target, and brought forward its projections for a potential first hike, reinforcing a data-dependent, gradual normalisation path. Summary: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, reinforcing that policy remains supportive. The updated OCR track

Japan’s trade minister outlined three US investment projects worth $600m, $2.1bn and $33.3bn, spanning artificial diamonds and energy infrastructure for data centres, and said Tokyo is coordinating with Washington while preparing a second batch of deals. Japan’s trade minister Akazawa outlined three US investment projects: $600m artificial diamond, $2.1bn crude oil, $33.3bn gas-fired thermal power

China achieved 5% growth in 2025 on export strength, but analysts warn that sustaining momentum in 2026 will require a proactive shift toward boosting domestic demand and stabilising housing. Summary: China met its 5.0% GDP growth target in 2025, supported heavily by net exports. Export gains to Asia, Europe and Latin America offset US trade

Exports to the US -5% y/y to EU +29.6% to China +32% y/y I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr in a speech: Prudent for Fed to take time, look at data, before changing policy again. Wants to see more evidence inflation ebbing to 2% target. Still sees ‘significant risk’ inflation will stay over 2%. Reasonable to think price pressures will further cool. Job market in balance but vulnerable

The GBPUSD has now made two clear downside runs beginning from yesterday’s session high at 1.3661 — and that sequencing matters. The first leg lower took the pair from 1.3661 down to 1.3550 during the late Asian / early European session. That move had momentum behind it. Sellers were in control, pushing price through intraday

Dollar positioning has reached its most negative level on record in Bank of America’s survey, reflecting broad expectations of US softness and potential Fed easing, with labour market risks seen as the main catalyst for further weakness. Summary: Investor positioning in the US dollar has fallen to its most negative level since at least January

Sentiment is one of the best market indicators out there. In fact, I’d argue that the only reason to be on the stock market internet is to get news and — perhaps more importantly — to gauge sentiment. I don’t think I’ve ever felt it was so tough to figure out where sentiment really lies.

Gold stays rangebound amid Chinese holiday and lack of catalysts. What’s next? Germany February ZEW economic sentiment index 58.3 vs 65.2 expected RBNZ preview: risk of disappointment given the high expectations AI bubble top tail risk, long gold most crowded trade according to BofA survey Germany January final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim UK

Japan’s 5-year JGB auction drew steady demand with a 3.10 bid-to-cover ratio and a modestly tighter tail, though participation was slightly softer compared with stronger sales last year. Japan sold ¥1.89 trillion of 5-year JGBs with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.10 (vs 3.08 prior). Stop rate (highest accepted yield) came in at 1.646%, average yield

The USDJPY has spent the last four trading days rotating in a defined up-and-down range, reflecting a market that is consolidating rather than trending. The low for the move was established last Thursday, and since that time the pair has carved out a pattern of progressively higher lows. That subtle shift in structure suggests that

The price of Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since rebounding from the February 6th low near $59,930. After the sharp decline from the January 28th high near $90,352, the market managed to recover approximately 38.2% of that prior drop — a key Fibonacci retracement level that often acts as resistance in corrective bounces.

ING expects the RBNZ to hold in February 18 but signal a more hawkish stance as inflation surprises to the upside, forecasting two hikes from 3Q and medium-term NZD strength. Summary of their views below. Earlier: RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Likely RBNZ on hold decision February

Prior was 37 Current single-family home sales 41 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 22 vs 23 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 46 vs 49 prior It’s curious that home builder stocks hit a record on Friday via the XHB ETF. The market is looking way ahead towards a lowering of interest

The two parties will work on potential agreement documents and exchange them Two parties still have topics on which they still need to work This does not mean that we will reach an agreement soon but the path was started Oil is down $1 on the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at

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EUR/USD 1.2000 (EUR 940.83 mn) 1.1900 (EUR 1.34 bn) 1.1700 (EUR 975.72 mn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 1.95 bn) 151.00 (US$ 1.09 bn) GBP/USD 1.3560 (GBP 766.08 mn) USD/CHF 0.7730 (US$ 694.69 mn) USD/CAD 1.3600 (US$ 1.02 bn) 1.3500 (US$ 973.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.7025 (AUD 449.18 mn) NZD/USD 0.6100 (NZD 140.98 mn) 0.5975 (NZD 196.92 mn)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% tomorrow. Alongside the decision, we’ll also get the latest Monetary Policy Statement and updated economic projections. Analysts expect the central bank to signal an earlier start to rate hikes, with the first increase seen in

Today’s stock market reflects a volatile landscape with a notable downturn in the technology sector, highlighted by declines in major companies and mixed results across various industries. 🔍 Sector Overview The technology sector is experiencing a challenging day, with software and semiconductor giants facing significant declines. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) decreased by 1.85% and Microsoft (MSFT)

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Oil prices remain steady as Iran’s Strait of Hormuz drills heighten supply risk ahead of US nuclear talks, while OPEC+ output decisions and prospects for diplomatic progress temper upside. Summary: Oil prices steady as Iran conducts naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of US nuclear talks. President Donald Trump signals indirect involvement in

In EURUSD last week, sellers leaned against the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-January high to the early-February low at 1.19230. The high on Tuesday reached 1.1928, with additional swing highs at 1.1926–1.1925, effectively stalling upside momentum. Buyers had their opportunity — and they failed. That rejection set the tone for Wednesday’s slide,

Details: New orders 5.8 vs 6.6 prior Shipments -1.0 vs 16.3 prior Employment 4.0 vs -9.0 prior Average employee workweek 2.1 versus -5.4 prior Prices paid 49.1 vs 42.8 prior Prices received 22.2 vs 14.4 prior Unfilled orders 9.1 vs -8.2 prior Delivery times 4.0 vs 0.0 prior Inventories 7.1 vs -2.1 prior Supply availability

Wants some evididence that inflation is headed back to 2% Considers a 3% policy rate a ‘loose’ estimate of neutral There are potentially ‘several’ more rate cuts if progress on inflation resumes Goods with higher tariffed content have tended to see larger price increases Recent headline inflation was partly pulled down due to base effects

Prior was +2.4% CPM m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior CPI m/m -0.2% Core measures: BOC core 2.6% vs 2.8% prior BOC core m/m +0.2% vs -0.4% prior Core CPI % m/m +0.1% vs +0.3% prior CPI median +2.5% vs 2.5% expected (prior was 2.6%) CPI trim +2.4% vs 2.6% expected (prior was 2.7%) CPI

Japan 5-year JGB auction sees steady demand, bid-to-cover at 3.10 RBNZ to hold, signal rate hikes ahead, ING. Upside risks for NZ/US toward 0.62 by year-end India central bank finalises easier foreign borrowing rules for corporates Oil steady as Iran drills near Strait of Hormuz ahead of US talks US dollar positioning hits record underweight

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold found some support from the benign US CPI report on Friday where headline inflation eased slightly, while the core measure remained unchanged. We saw a small dovish repricing although the data didn’t change anything in the bigger picture. Yesterday, gold dropped again and eventually erased all the post-CPI gains. There was no

A former BOJ board member says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike, as policymakers await wage data and updated forecasts, signaling a cautious but ongoing normalization process. This comes via Bloomberg (gated) Former BOJ board member Seiji Adachi says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK employment report. The consensus is for 94K jobs added in the three months to December 2025 vs 82K in the prior month, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%. The Average Earnings incl. Bonus is expected at at 4.6%

Global investors stay “uber-bullish” but asset price upside in Q1 is harder Commodity overweight at highest since May 2022 Equity overweight at highest since December 2024 Most optimistic on earnings since August 2021, but investors saying companies are “overinvesting” at new record AI bubble is top tail risk Long gold is the most crowded trade

I’ve been posting this information late last week and earlier this week, but ICYMi. Summary: Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb. Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24. Hong Kong is closed Feb 17–19, and reopens Fri Feb 20. Singapore (SGX)

Prior +1.8% HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% Core CPI 2.5% y/y No changes to the preliminary estimates here. The reaction to the data was muted as expected given no surprises and no influence on ECB’s policy outlook. The agency notes: “The rise in overall consumer prices intensified at the start of the

An update on these two losing ground. There is no fresh news driving price. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior 5.1% Employment change 52k vs 94k expected Prior 82k Average weekly earnings +4.2% vs +4.6% 3m/y expected Prior +4.7% (revised to 4.6%) Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.2% vs +4.2% 3m/y expected Prior +4.5% (revised to 4.4%) January payrolls change -11k Prior -43k (revised to -6k) As a general reminder, the UK labour market

Soft landing looks more plausible, but the Fed isn’t ready to call it done. This is via the Wall Street Journal (gated), I’ve summarised. Summary: Key US macro “vital signs” are aligned: inflation is easing, jobs are holding up, and growth remains solid. Core CPI slowed to 2.5% y/y in January, while unemployment edged down

China will implement zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries from May 1, broadening earlier waivers and deepening economic ties, in contrast to the US administration’s more protectionist tariff stance. Summary: China to eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations from May 1, 2026. Policy applies to all countries with diplomatic ties to

India’s ECB rule changes widen offshore funding options for corporates, with a mild positive read-through for risk. Info via Reuters reporting. Summary: RBI finalised easier rules for external commercial borrowings (ECBs), expanding flexibility for corporates raising overseas debt. Eligible firms can borrow up to $1bn or 300% of net worth, in foreign currency or rupees.

RBA minutes show the February rate hike was driven by stronger-than-expected data, persistent broad-based inflation and easing financial conditions, with policymakers emphasising data dependence and no preset rate path. Board judged risks to inflation and employment had “shifted materially”, strengthening case for February hike. Members agreed inflation would likely stay above target too long without

EUR/USD: 1.1900 (EUR1.22bn), 1.2000 (EUR769.2mn), 1.2025 (EUR615.4mn) USD/JPY: 156.00 (US$1.87bn), 151.00 (US$986.2mn) USD/CAD: 1.3600 (US$1.11bn), 1.3625 (US$980.7mn), 1.3500 (US$943mn) AUD/USD: 0.7025 (AUD429.2mn), 0.6750 (AUD399.3mn) GBP/USD: 1.3560 (GBP317mn) More information here. Justin posted this yesterday: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada January housing starts 238.0K vs 257.5K expected Canada December manufacturing sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expected The EU and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc are opening talks Four charts that highlight the worries that are driving markets right now The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the AI company a supply

I’ve got four charts crossing the desk today that paint a complicated picture for the Fed and the USD. We have a specific sector falling off a cliff, broader resilience, a sentiment reset, and the one thing Jay Powell doesn’t want to see: inflation ticking back up. 1. The Tech Sector is falling off a

USD/JPY has been the most-interesting forex pair of the past couple years as volatility remains elevated and a pair of 18-big figure trends have unfolded. More recently, we’ve seen a sharp move down to 152.00 from 159.00 following the latest Japanese election. In it, Senae Takaichi’s LDP party won a super majority in the Lower

Ethereum is frozen as the crypto winter continues. And it’s not frozen in a great spot as it carves out a range near the lows of the year. I would have liked to have seen a stronger bounce after the drop since late January but so far it hasn’t materialized. Instead, it’s stuck near $2000

That will make for a quieter start to the new week, not least with Chinese markets also out today. As a reminder, it will be a one week break for China in conjunction with the Lunar New Year holidays. So, that will sap out a chunk of liquidity in Asia trading at least for the

Westpac says global growth rotation may weigh on the dollar. Summary: Westpac sees dollar drifting lower, with risks skewed to the downside. US growth expected above trend in 2026, driven by consumers and tech investment. Inflation pressures likely to persist, limiting Fed rate cuts to one more move. Euro and sterling forecast to outperform, reaching

The currency pair had a bit of a mixed showing last week, with the early Monday move seeing price climb back above 1.1900 before stalling closer to 1.1920. After that, the hotter-than-expected US jobs report here sent the pair back down below the figure level. And since then, the pair has been meandering just under

Prior was -1.2% Sales of C$71.0 billion Gains in 12 of 21 subsectors led by motor vehicles +12.0% Sales down 1.1% y/y Sales up 0.2% q/q Inventories -1.2% Unfilled orders +0.4% The drop in inventories is going to be a drag on Q4 GDP and the sales numbers in the quarter aren’t particularly inspiring either.

NZDUSD stays rangebound ahead of the RBNZ decision: traders expect no change to the OCR Oil prices in the spotlight ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva Silver’s faltering recovery last week not a good early sign It’s a big week for the British Pound as major UK economic data loom

Well, that seems to have been quite a short meeting. For some context, they were scheduled to meet at 0800 GMT (5pm Tokyo time) and it’s over and done with in less than 20 minutes. This is their first meeting since the snap election results, which resulted in a landslide victory for Takaichi and her

Prior was 282.4K Starts down 15% m/m Non-seasonally adjusted starts -3.5% m/m Canada’s housing construction picture in Q4 2025 told a story of fading momentum punctuated by a strong December finish. For the full year, CMHC reported total housing starts of 259,028 units across all areas, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 — the fifth-highest

Japan bear flips & now bets on yen strength vs dollar, sterling & franc (sees +8% vs. CHF) Japan PM and BOJ chief Ueda will meet today at 5pm Tokyo time Westpac targets 1.22 for EUR/USD and $1.41 GBP/USD (long horizon) China deploys ‘national team’ investors to cool AI stock surge, selling intervention Japan junior

GDP growth fell well short of estimates. Preview is here I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and analysis. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil prices came under some pressure in the final part of last week as we got a couple of bearish catalysts. On the US-Iran negotiations front, there have been many mixed signals, but it looks like the Iranians are willing to compromise given the bleak consequences that a no-deal could have. In

NZ services expand modestly, but confidence and hiring remain subdued. Summary: PSI slips but stays in expansion, easing to 50.9 from 51.5 and remaining above the 50 threshold. Growth below long-run average, with January’s reading under the historical norm of 52.8. Activity and new orders positive, signalling ongoing turnover and forward demand support. Employment and

It’s a holiday in the US today and markets are closed but it’s also a holiday in China as lunar new year celebrations back up. The most-watched TV show in China annually is the CCTV Spring Festival gala and in the past few years, it’s turned into a demostration of the cutting edge of humanoid

Sometimes in life, we always go by the principle of using Occam’s razor to work things out. It’s not so much the best thing to abide by when trading, but one of the best principles I find in trading is to always keep things simple. That is also in part what Greg tends to preach

BofA argues that the dollar remains in a precarious spot and while there is plenty of focus on China diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets, it is Europe that should be watched more closely instead. As a reminder, the US Treasury will be releasing its TIC report for December 2025 later this week on 18 February.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Eurozone industrial production data. This is rarely a market-moving report and in any case, it’s not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we just have

Monday begins quietly, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In China, markets will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, the focus will be on inflation data. Wednesday brings the RBNZ monetary

Credit Agricole is out with a note at the end of last week saying that the dollar will remain in the crosshairs for trading this week. That as traders will have plenty to look forward to this week as well, following the key economic data trifecta last week. The firm argues that all things considered,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny

Singapore exports grow solidly but miss forecasts as electronics outpace other sectors. Summary: January NODX rose 9.3% y/y, below expectations of 12.1%. Electronics led gains, driven by integrated circuits and disk media. Non-electronics exports declined, highlighting uneven sector performance. Exports to China, Hong Kong and EU rose, while US and Indonesia shipments fell. Forecasts recently

This follows from the 1.2% growth in 2024 and the 1.3% growth posted in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in 2025. And just for a bit more of a benchmark, the GDP per capita has expanded by 4.8% since 2019. Looking at the details, the industrial sector

Summary: Takaichi and Ueda meet for first time since election win, amid rate-hike speculation. Previous November meeting preceded December hike to 0.75%. Yen has rebounded nearly 3%, after earlier weakness near 160 per dollar. Markets price ~80% chance of April hike, as inflation stays above target. Two BOJ board seats opening, giving Takaichi potential influence

Optimism builds for Chinese equities as policy support and tech innovation offset lingering risks. Summary: Chinese equities rallied strongly in 2025, supported by exports, AI advances and policy easing. Technology and housing stabilisation policies are key areas of investor optimism. Corporate governance and capital returns improving, with rising dividends and buybacks. Earnings growth expected to

Beijing deploys state-linked investors to moderate AI-driven stock speculation. ps. Chinese markets are closed this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: China’s “national team” selling equities, aiming to cool AI-driven speculation. Shift from traditional buyer role, previously used to stabilise markets during downturns. ~US$110bn ETF

Westpac says US resilience limits scope for further Fed easing. Summary: US growth remains resilient, with activity tracking above trend despite uncertainty. Labour market stable, unemployment steady around 4.3% and wage growth firm. Household balance sheets strong, wealth at record highs supporting consumption. Inflation risks persist, particularly in core services, complicating Fed easing. Westpac delays

Japan junior coalition partner leader urges tax relief while defending BOJ independence. Summary: Junior coalition leader backs swift food tax suspension, targeting fiscal 2026 rollout. Foreign reserves flagged as funding option, potentially reducing need for new debt issuance. BOJ independence emphasised, with rate decisions left to the central bank. Further rate hikes possible, given weak

Investor turns bullish on Japan bonds and yen after election clarity. Summary: Bloomberg reports Nash turns bullish on JGBs, buying 10-year bonds after election clarity. Political stability seen as catalyst, with yields falling sharply since Takaichi’s win. Yen bought versus dollar and sterling, marking strategic FX repositioning. Forecast 8–9% yen appreciation, particularly against the Swiss

Not too much change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1875 USD/JPY 152.66 GBP/USD 1.3641 AUD/USD 0.7072 USD/CAD 1.3609 USD/CHF 0.7685 NZD/USD 0.6033 I’ll be back with weekend news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand retail card spending -1.1% m/m in January, reversing December’s +0.1%. Total card spending also declined, -0.7% on the month after a 1.0% fall previously. In annual terms, electronic retail card spending edged up 0.4% y/y. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. Considering that US markets are closed today, there is a notable lack of interest on the expiries board to start the week. That being said, there is one that could still factor into play. And that is for

Beijing pivots toward consumption-led growth as export reliance faces mounting global headwinds. While Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on Sunday, take note that Chinese markets are closed all this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: Xi pivots toward domestic demand, calling consumption and investment the

IMF says Australia is landing softly, but inflation and global risks demand policy vigilance. Summary: IMF sees Australia achieving a soft landing, with growth rebounding to around 2% after a weak 2024. Inflation eased then re-accelerated, with underlying price pressures back above 3% in late 2025. Growth expected to hold near 2% in 2026, supported

Washington escalates sanctions enforcement with another long-range tanker interception. Posting this with Globex oil trade about to open for the new week. Summary: US boards second tanker, intercepting the Panama-flagged Veronica III in the Indian Ocean. Operation followed long-distance tracking from the Caribbean amid sanctions enforcement. Vessel carried 1.9 million barrels and is sanctioned by

Japan ekes out Q4 growth, but momentum remains weak despite easing tariff drag. Summary Q4 GDP barely positive, rising 0.1% q/q and 0.2% annualised, well below expectations. Private consumption slowed, up 0.1% q/q amid persistent food price pressures. Capex underwhelmed, increasing just 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%. Exports fell 0.3%, with external demand contributing zero

The key market influence today is the closure of Chinese mainland markets and half days on ly in Hong Kong and Singapore (more detail below the screenshot). The calendar lists China house price data due today. These were published last week: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m Japanese

Sun: Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q4) Mon: US Holiday (Washington’s Birthday/Presidents Day); Eurogroup Meeting; Swedish Unemployment (Jan), EZ Industrial Production (Dec) Tue: RBA Minutes (Feb); UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, Canadian CPI (Jan), NY Fed (Feb), Chinese Lunar New Year (Hong Kong markets closed from 17th-19th Feb) Wed: RBNZ Announcement, FOMC Minutes

Bitcoin Futures are hovering near $68,800 in mid-February 2026, attempting to stabilize after a sharp retracement from last year’s surge above $110,000. At the same time, Ethereum Futures are trading close to $2,050, nearly 50% below their prior highs above $4,000. While crypto appears to be “holding,” the broader backdrop tells a more complex story.

US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected Fed’s Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI report US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments: Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPI We are still seeing pretty high services inflation Hopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffs The job market has been steady, only modest cooling Rates can still go down but need to

The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs. The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be ‘decision

Sector Overview: A Mixed Day Across the Market The stock market today showcases a complex landscape, with varied performances across sectors. Leading the charge, the healthcare sector is basking in green, while technology shows a mix of highs and lows. 📈 Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 1.40%, riding on positive sentiments, while Merck (MRK)

US stocks have turned around nicely today led by the Russell 2000, which is up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and eyes are on software stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% after an utterly bruising performance so far this year. I’m careful not to lean too hard on

New yuan loans ¥4.71 trillion vs ¥5.00 trillion expected China’s new bank loans surged in January, as is typical of the new year. Looking back to 2025, this figure was ¥5.13 trillion in January last year. That said, the figure this time around misses on estimates but is still a big one in preparation of

It’s a mixed up week with non-farm payrolls already passed but CPI scheduled for today. It’s a big one as it could re-frame the debate about how many rate cuts are possible. Notably, despite the strong non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, the market isn’t convinced the Fed will hold. Year-end pricing for rate cuts is up

Prior +2.9% HICP +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% The numbers here are slightly softer than what the initial estimates indicated. And they reflect a material decline in headline annual inflation to start the new year. That being said, core prices still represent the most important detail in this report and it is the

Prior was +2.7% m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior m/m reading was +0.3% Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%) Core inflation : Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior ex food and energy +2.5% Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior core m/m +0.2% Core goods +1.1%

PBOC’s emphasis on overnight repo rate sparks talk of policy framework shift. Summary: PBOC elevates focus on overnight repo rate Monthly report reordered to highlight overnight benchmark Potential shift away from 7-day reverse repo focus Overnight rate already trading close to policy rate Signals possible evolution in policy framework The People’s Bank of China has

US CPI preview: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments? Headlines: US futures drop lower as equities look to end the week with a whimper Gold at risk of another selloff as traders turn their focus to the US CPI

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

It might be the result of a brutally cold winter so far but Canadian consumer spending dipped in January, according to the latest spending tracker from RBC. Using cardholder data, Canada’s largest bank indicated that spending fell across discretionary goods, services and essentials in the month. The bank downplayed the decline, noting that it came

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 58 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 48 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 8 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by

Prior +0.1% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. The monthly estimate points to another negative reading (-0.1%), missing slightly on estimates this time around. That will be a slight concern looking out to the year ahead. This marks a fifth consecutive negative monthly estimate after recording flat

USS Ford strike group will join USS Lincoln carrier strike group in Persian Gulf PBOC’s focus on overnight rate fuels speculation of policy shift BOJ’s Tamura says inflation sticky, sees scope to judge target met by spring China housing market struggles despite “three red lines” removal. 62/70 cities price falls NZ inflation expectations mixed ahead

The story from earlier: Japan seizes Chinese fishing vessel in EEZ, arrests captain amid rising tensions The legality of the situation might not matter all too much. That especially since China and Japan are already in quite the state of conflict since Japan prime minister Takaichi took over. Her remarks on Japan potentially needing to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher following the strong US NFP report on Wednesday as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets, but surprisingly gave back all the gains soon after. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for

The process of disinflation is intact and not complete We need to maintain monetary policy restrictiveness Core inflation is falling again after having stalled I hope inflation expectations will fall with slowing inflation Underlying inflation should be the focus of policy Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hoped Underlying inflation looks more like

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Yesterday, out of the blue, we got a quick selloff in gold without any clear catalyst. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Anyway, the focus now is on the US CPI report today. The

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have the Swiss CPI and the Eurozone Q4 GDP. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.1% prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the SNB though as policymakers have repeatedly said that the bar for negative rates remains very high and that even

Software stocks have been under heavy pressure as of late amid concerns of AI disruptions to the space. But yesterday, we’re starting to see that spill over to some other parts of the market you’d least expect. It was quite a blowout in Wall Street: Every industry is one AI headline away from a brutal

If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objects Spoke to the USTR this morning, we’ll see if there’s a narrowing He also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump’s pick to replace Powell. We’ll see where the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Same as we saw for gold, yesterday we got a quick selloff in silver without any clear catalyst, although half of the losses were eventually pared back. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Today,

This was already evident when we saw the German and French trade data last week. For some context: US tariffs impact show up in German and French trade numbers, but is there a bigger worry? Of note, German exports to the US last year plunged while French exports were steady at the balance after some

Now is not the time for the ECB to move interest rates We are in a good position to move interest rates in any way if needed We have yet to see the full impact of recent euro appreciation Policymakers are on monitoring mode with regards to the euro strength There are concerns that a

Prior +0.3% There’s no change to the initial estimate with the yearly figure confirmed at 1.3% as well. As mentioned before, this mainly reaffirms a more resilient showing by the euro area economy in ending last year. As for annual growth for 2025 as a whole, GDP is seen increasing by 1.5% for the year.

The sources are saying that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes starting from April. However, the bloc has not yet made a firm decision on the matter and that talks will continue ahead of their 1 March meeting. The headline is enough to bring about a dip in oil prices, with WTI crude

Tamura flags sticky inflation and positive output gap, signalling scope for further BOJ rate hikes. Summary: BOJ’s Tamura says inflation becoming “sticky” Price target may be judged achieved as early as spring Output gap already positive Yen weakness a renewed inflation risk Policy still accommodative at 0.75% Neutral rate likely at least around 1% Signals

Spotify Stock Analysis After Earnings: Why SPOT’s Post-Earnings Rally Faded and What Technical Structure Suggests Next Spotify (SPOT) delivered a strong earnings reaction, initially triggering a powerful upside move. However, much of that rally has since faded, leaving traders asking an important question: Was this a healthy pullback within a bullish shift, or early evidence

IC Markets Global has been recognised by TradingView as the “Social Champion” at the 2025 TradingView Broker Awards, highlighting the broker’s strong engagement and connection with the global trading community. The Social Champion award recognises brokers that stand out on TradingView through active participation, meaningful interaction, and consistent engagement with traders across the platform’s social

The report says that the US president is planning to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods, largely as a move to bolster his public image ahead of the November midterm elections. As a reminder, Trump slapped steel and aluminium imports with tariffs of up to 50% last year and even expanded that

The meeting was said to take place in Beijing on Thursday, with representatives from 60 German companies being in attendance. Of note, the list of German firms included the likes of BASF, BMW Group, and Bayer. The commerce ministry then reaffirmed that both China and Germany remain “committed to a fair and stable business environment”.

China’s housing slump deepens as January prices post steepest annual drop in seven months. Earlier on this here: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m adding a little more now: Summary: China new home prices fall 0.4% m/m, -3.1% y/y in January Annual decline steepest in seven months 62

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being a rather large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. The expiries hold close to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1846 currently and that together, that could keep a floor on price action in the session ahead.

We’re starting to see the pressure build up again as we look to European morning trade today. That after the heavy selling in Wall Street amid continued concerns on the AI trade and potential disruptions surrounding the technology itself. It’s creating quite a vortex of volatility, and it is one that might take some time

Microsoft is widely (and rightly) seen as a defining company of the past 50 years. It’s changed the world completely, is ubiquitous, highly profitable and among the most-valuable in the world. People also forget that for a decade, it was a joke in the stock market. The Steve Balmer era was a disaster and coincided

RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% as inflation expectations send mixed signals and hike bets build for 2026. Summary: RBNZ widely expected to hold OCR at 2.25% on February 18 Inflation at 3.1%, above 1–3% target band Rate cuts since 2024 total 325bp Hike expectations for end-2026 rising Futures price ~60% chance of hike by

USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group redirected from Caribbean to Middle East, extending deployment into spring. Summary: USS USS Gerald R. Ford and escort ships will be rerouted from the Caribbean to the Middle East, delaying their return home until late April or early May. This redeployment will see the Ford strike group join