The ECB is still in good place We will be ready to act if needed There’s no reason to act at the next meeting I have no reservations to hike without new forecasts Upside inflation risks clearly dominate A rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought The euro caught a bid on that […]
ECB’s Kazimir: Rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Spanish retail sales data which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. In fact, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war because that’s going to influence
What are the main events for today? Read More »
Japan’s wholesale inflation cooled in February but rising oil prices from the Iran conflict threaten to push price pressures higher again. Summary: Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.0% y/y in February, below the 2.1% forecast. Wholesale inflation slowed from January’s 2.3% rise, marking a third straight month of easing. Government fuel subsidies helped
Weak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook — PPI recap Read More »
Prior +2.1% HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.1% The drop in the headline reading owes much to lower energy prices mostly. So when you take a look at core annual inflation instead, that is seen at 2.5% – the same as in January. As such, this is still one stubborn area that is
Germany February final CPI +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y prelim Read More »
The major U.S. stock indices closed the session with mixed results. The NASDAQ edged slightly higher, finishing nearly unchanged with a gain of 0.01%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.21% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07%. The small-cap Russell 2000 also moved lower, falling 0.22%, reflecting a somewhat cautious tone in the broader
US stocks mixed. NASDAQ closes marginally higher. The S&P marginally lower. Read More »
<html> <body> <!–StartFragment–>Trump announced a major refinery project in Texas backed by India’s Reliance, describing it as a historic investment aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance.<!–EndFragment–> </body> </html> Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new oil refinery project in Brownsville, Texas. Trump said the facility would be the first new U.S. refinery built in
Trump thanks India Reliance for investment in new Texas refinery project Read More »
Container ship damaged off UAE, hit by suspected projectile near Strait of Hormuz Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and May Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week Weak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook — PPI recap
Do you ever get the sense that someone is playing games? CNN reported just minutes ago that Iran has placed a few dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. They cited “according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue”, who were unnamed but they were no doubt sourced (and not made
Trump: We have no reports of Iran placing mines in the Hormuz Strait Read More »
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. That keeps near key near-term levels, with the 200-hour moving average seen at 1.1645 currently. As mentioned yesterday, the currency pair is now caught in between that and its 100-hour moving
FX option expiries for 11 March 10am New York cut Read More »
CBS reports: U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval
US intel sees signs that Iran is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz – report Read More »
Japan PPI for February 2026, AKA corporate goods price index (CGPI), measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services: -0.1% m/m expected 0.2%, prior 0.2% 2.0% y/y expected 2.1%, prior 2.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Japanese wholesale prices +2.0% y/y in February (2.1% expected) Read More »
A container ship was damaged by a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz as regional conflict raises risks to global shipping. Summary: A container vessel reported damage from a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred 25 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Khaimah in the UAE, according to UKMTO. The
Container ship damaged off UAE, hit by suspected projectile near Strait of Hormuz Read More »
The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after the Strait of Hormuz disruption sent crude prices sharply higher. Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting. ps. G7 discussion on oil scheduled for 1400 GMT on Wednesday, March 11, 2026: G7 to discuss energy coordination as Mid East tensions lift oil prices: 1400
The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after Hormuz disruption Read More »
RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned oil-driven inflation risks could intensify policy debate ahead of the next interest rate decision. Justin had his comments posted here yesterday: RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a “genuine challenge” Pricing for a March 17 RBA rate hike has jumped above 50% on the back
Goldman Sachs expects February CPI to show easing core inflation as autos and shelter moderate. Data due at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 11, 2026. Summary: Goldman Sachs expects February core CPI to rise 0.17% m/m, below the 0.2% consensus. The forecast implies 2.42% year-on-year core inflation, versus 2.5% consensus. Headline CPI is
Iran has laid ‘a few dozen’ mines in the Strait of Hormuz – report Trump: We have no reports of Iran placing mines in the Hormuz Strait US intel sees signs that Iran is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz – report US Energy Sec removes video saying the US Navy escorted a tanker
investingLive Americas market news wrap: A complete mess in oil. Other markets tune out Read More »
North Korea tested a cruise missile designed for naval deployment while backing Iran and condemning U.S. and Israeli military actions. Summary: North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile test on Tuesday, according to state media KCNA. The missile was designed for deployment on a naval destroyer, highlighting Pyongyang’s expanding naval strike capability. Leader Kim Jong
North Korea tests cruise missile for destroyer and backs Iran (KJU attention seeking) Read More »
Oracle beat Q3 estimates and lifted its revenue outlook as cloud demand drove strong growth and a surge in backlog. Summary: Oracle reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $17.19B, beating estimates of $16.89B. Adjusted operating margin reached 43%, slightly ahead of the expected 42.7%. Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS) totaled $8.9B, narrowly topping forecasts. Software
Oracle beats Q3 estimates as cloud revenue growth drives $90B outlook (shares jump) Read More »
On Tuesday the USD/CNY reference rate was set at a 35 month low (ie a 35 month high for CNY). That could be surpassed today as the PBoC allows a stronger yuan again. — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8824 – Reuters estimate Read More »
ECB President Lagarde pushed back against stagflation concerns but said elevated uncertainty prevents clear guidance on the next interest rate decision. Summary: ECB President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy is not in a stagflationary environment. She noted the economy has greater capacity to absorb shocks than in 2022, though uncertainty is currently higher. Lagarde
Lagarde says eurozone not in stagflation as ECB keeps rate path uncertain Read More »
Japan wholesale level inflation indicator, the PPI, is due today. Expected just a loittle softer. Still, the most focus for markets will be on the war makers. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US intelligence reports that Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil higher, stocks lower and the USD higher. If they are successful, it would keep the Strait unpassable. If successful, it could be the next wave of mass destruction for the US. The S&P moved from 6831
Markets react to reports that Iran taking steps to deploy mines Read More »
Ethereum futures analysis today points to a constructive 4-hour recovery, with ETH rebuilding fair value higher after earlier selling pressure. The latest structure favors the bulls, but traders still need stronger follow-through above $2,085 before calling it a clean breakout. Bias score: +3.5 bullish On investingLive’s scale, a +3.5 score means the market has a
Ethereum futures analysis today: ETH builds higher value as bulls defend key support Read More »
The AUDUSD has pushed to a new high for 2026, breaking above the February peak at 0.7146 and reaching a session high of 0.7155. However, after the breakout, the price has rotated back lower and is now trading just below that prior high, creating the risk of a failed breakout if buyers cannot maintain momentum.
AUDUSD stretches to a new high for 2026. Can the buyers keep the momentum going? Read More »
China exports surge at start of 2026 as trade surplus widens sharply. Summary: China’s exports surged 21.8% y/y in January–February, far exceeding expectations and accelerating sharply from December’s 6.6% growth. The country recorded a $213.6B trade surplus, well above forecasts and last year’s level. Imports also jumped 19.8% y/y, suggesting stronger trade flows despite weak
China exports surge 21.8% as trade surplus widens at start of 2026 – more detail Read More »
WTI crude fell below Friday’s low and through $80 after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. He’s now removed that post and oil is bouncing. This was the post: This isn’t a good look for the Secretary and White House communications. This
ICYMI: Goldman Sachs & Barclays warn sustained oil surge could push US inflation toward 3% Trump advisers urge Iran war exit plan amid epic oil price surge. Epic Blunder? Recap – Japan upgrades Q4 GDP to 1.3% on strong investment, Iran war clouds outlook PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8982 (vs.
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump’s mixed messages on his war Read More »
High Yield: 3.579% vs 6-month avg. 3.563% WI level at the time of the auction 3.568% Tail 1.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.6 bps Bid-to-Cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.69x Dealers 19.5% vs 6 month average of 10.5% Directs 20.7% versus 6 month average of 25.3% Indirects: 59.8% versus 6 month
The U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.579% Read More »
Nasdaq rebounds as oil prices ease and Trump suggests the war could end soon. What’s next? US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected ECB policymakers stress patience, assess if energy price shock is temporary or not French finance minister says “not there yet” with regards to release of oil reserves The
investingLive European FX news wrap: Markets in a cautiously optimistic mood Read More »
A quick snapshot of the markets today shows a somewhat cautious tone across asset classes. Crude oil is trading higher on the day but is struggling to stay below the $90 level, an area that traders continue to watch as an important psychological and technical threshold. U.S. yields are modestly lower. The 2-year yield is
The USD is little changed vs the major currency pairs after the ups and downs yesterday Read More »
Shares of Canadian subprime lender Goeasy are down 60% today on guidance regarding surging loan defaults and write downs. It comes ahead of the March 25 earnings report. The company announced a $331mm charge to reflect weaker-than-expected recoveries on loans and will breach leverage covenants as a result. They have secured accommodation agreements but this
Canary in the coal mine: Shares of a large Canadian subprime lender are down 60% today Read More »
Summary of weekend notes ICYMI: Higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions could lift U.S. inflation if the increase persists for several months. Goldman Sachs estimates a sustained 10% rise in oil prices could add about 0.28 percentage points to headline CPI. In one scenario, U.S. inflation could rise from 2.4% to around 3% if
Prior 99.3 Full report here This is a minor setback but the index remains above its 52-year average of 98. This is not a market moving report and it certainly won’t be now that the focus is solely on the US-Iran war. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report
US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq nearly tested its November low yesterday as markets kicked off the week in a strong risk-off mood. Sentiment improved later in the day as oil prices fell sharply following the G7’s indication that it may release emergency oil reserves. In the evening, Trump told CBS that the war could be over
The Australian dollar has extended its gain to 77 pips on the day to 0.7150. That’s the best level since 2023 and only a handful of pips away from the best levels since June 2022. I have been beating this drum for awhile but there continues to be much to like about the Australian dollar:
Australian dollar rises to the best levels since 2023. Four reasons why it’s climbing Read More »
Iran signals shipping pressure in Gulf while Trump warns of massive retaliation if oil flows are disrupted. Summary: Iran is reportedly preparing “security duties” on ships linked to U.S.-allied countries in the Persian Gulf, signalling potential leverage over oil flows. Iranian sources claim Tehran holds influence over global oil prices through its position around the
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French trade balance and the Italian PPI report. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB or the market, so the reaction will be muted. The market focus
What are the main events for today? Read More »
Summary: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says Arab or European countries that expel Israeli and U.S. ambassadors will be granted full freedom to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The statement was carried by Iranian state media and appears aimed at rallying diplomatic support for Tehran amid its war with the United States and Israel.
Iran signals Hormuz safe passage to countries expelling U.S. and Israeli diplomats Read More »
Sector Overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag of performance with significant movements across various sectors. Let’s dissect the big winners and losers illuminating today’s trading landscape. 📊 Technology Sector: This sector showcases a dichotomy. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed up by 0.91%, showing bullish momentum within semiconductors, complemented by Micron Technology (MU) soaring 5.68%. However,
Tech giants fluctuate, industrials gain: Analyzing today’s stock market movement Read More »
Japan’s GDP growth revised sharply higher as investment strengthens, but energy risks cloud outlook. Summary: Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply higher to 1.3% annualised, far above the preliminary estimate of 0.2%. The upgrade was driven by strong capital expenditure, which rose 1.3%, the fastest increase in a year. Private consumption also improved, revised
Recap – Japan upgrades Q4 GDP to 1.3% on strong investment, Iran war clouds outlook Read More »
As access to trading platforms and financial education expands, more women are turning to financial markets to diversify income beyond traditional careers. Participation in financial markets is evolving. For decades, investing and trading were often perceived as male-dominated arenas. But the rapid expansion of digital trading platforms, financial education, and global market access is reshaping
The Rise of Female Market Participants: Why More Women Build Multiple Income Streams Read More »
Iran war-driven energy surge sparks fresh rate hike bets across Europe. Via Reuters reporting. Summary: The war involving Iran has pushed crude prices above $119 a barrel, triggering renewed fears of another global inflation shock. Markets have increased bets that several European central banks may need to raise interest rates later this year. The European
Iran war-driven oil surge pushes markets to price in new European rate hikes Read More »
The dollar is trading back down across the board today as its fate remains tightly correlated to oil prices at this stage. After jumping to a high of $119.50 yesterday, WTI crude oil has seen quite the reversal in falling back to $87.10 today. That as the roller coaster ride continues with market players now
AUD/USD already looking to eye the highs for the year as the market mood picks up Read More »
Prior was 3.91m (worst reading since 2024 but revised to 4.02m) Home sales change +1.7% vs -8.4% prior Days on the market 47 vs 46 prior Inventory at months 3.8 vs 3.7 months prior Median prices $398,000 vs $396,800 prior US existing home sales, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), measure completed
US February existing home sales 4.09m vs 3.89m expected Read More »
Crude oil is racing to the downside, pressured by both fresh fundamental developments and increasingly bearish technical signals. On the fundamental side, reports indicate that the IEA is meeting with government representatives on Tuesday to discuss supply conditions, with the purpose of determining whether a coordinated release of oil stocks may be necessary. That headline
Crude oil is lower and the sellers are taking back control technically Read More »
Yesterday, the USDCAD had a down-and-up day that largely mirrored the moves in crude oil. Earlier in the session, the pair moved lower as oil prices surged, strengthening the Canadian dollar. Later, as oil began to come off the boil, USDCAD rebounded, reflecting a softer CAD. Today, oil is again trading higher, and USDCAD is
Summary: Donald Trump said the U.S. is waiving certain oil-related sanctions to help ensure adequate global supply and lower prices during the Middle East conflict. He pointed to additional crude supplies coming from Venezuela, including roughly 100 million barrels already delivered to U.S. refineries and another 100 million reportedly on the way. Trump argued the
Trump says Strait of Hormuz does not matter to the US Read More »
Gold is near the highs of the day, up $80 to $5214 as investors pile back in. Last week, we saw gold sold on the war as huge uncertainty hit everything. I believe that led to a de-leveraging trade even as China added to its gold reserves for a 16th month. As I wrote early
Gold rises to a one-week high as it jumps after breaking $5200 Read More »
The USDCHF spent much of yesterday’s trading session moving between its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, a sign of a market caught in a short-term battle between buyers and sellers. Late in the day, however, sellers gained the upper hand and pushed the pair below both moving averages, shifting the short-term bias to the downside.
USDCHF Technicals: The USDCHF tilted the bias back to the downside late yesterday Read More »
Trump was asked if the war will be over this week: “No”. Summary: Donald Trump said U.S. forces have destroyed much of Iran’s naval capability and are heavily degrading its drone and missile production. Trump claimed the campaign is ahead of the administration’s original timeline and suggested the conflict could soon conclude. He warned Iran
Trump says again Iran war will end soon, but says not this week Read More »
ECB’s Simkus: Important to stay calm for next policy meeting, don’t overreact Deeper crisis may have price and growth implications We need to take the next decision based on the best information on the day of the meeting ECB’s Muller: We need to see if the energy price surge is transitory or not We shouldn’t
ECB policymakers stress patience, assess if energy price shock is temporary or not Read More »
It is likely that they still need time to work out the details and nuances of the plan. But in the meantime, the threat has basically worked as oil prices have come off the boil. To some argument and extent, the “signal” that they are going to do so is in itself a tool that
French finance minister says “not there yet” with regards to release of oil reserves Read More »
Australian business conditions hold steady while confidence slips into negative territory. Note – this survey was taken before the war. With the surge in energy prices confidence will not have improved. Summary: Australian business conditions held steady in February, while confidence slipped into negative territory. The NAB business conditions index remained at +7, around its
Australian business confidence turns negative as conditions hold steady (pre war survey) Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been trading in a tight range for about a week now, as tighter financial conditions outweighed stagflation risks. The hawkish expectations around interest rates eased yesterday after Trump told CBS that the war could be over soon. Following the comment, Treasury yields and the US dollar weakened as traders started to
Gold remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to trigger a breakout Read More »
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth held a briefing at the Pentagon today and said: Today will be the hardest day of strikes yet Iran yesterday fired its lowest amount of missiles Iran made a big mistake by targeting neighbours Objectives are to destroy Iran’s navy and defense industrial base Iran stands alone and is
US stock futures sag as Hegseth emphasizes heavy attacks on Iran Read More »
A full-length interview with Stelios Pallis, Chief Technology Officer of XS.com As global financial markets evolve faster than ever, technology has become the key driver of growth and competitive advantage. At XS.com, 2025 was a transformative year, strengthening digital infrastructure, integrating AI across core systems, and reinforcing cybersecurity measures worldwide. These efforts culminate in the
Stelios Pallis on Building XS.com as a Technology-Led Global Trading Company Read More »
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8891 – Reuters estimate Read More »
Summary: UK consumer spending grew modestly in February, rising 1.1% year-on-year, highlighting fragile household demand. Sentiment weakened as the Middle East conflict raised fears of higher fuel prices, energy bills and inflation. Retail sales growth slowed sharply, with wet weather and cautious spending weighing on the high street. Meanwhile, private sector pay awards accelerated to
UK consumer spending remains subdued as inflation fears rise and wage growth firms Read More »
Our response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock For now, that is all very uncertain There will be very genuine policy debate at the board meeting with arguments on both sides Rise in oil prices clearly an upside risk to our inflation projection, but still in a state of flux A
Major indices in Europe are eyeing roughly 2% gains and a little more to start the session now. That as oil prices come off the boil from yesterday with markets eyeing the IEA emergency oil reserves release and potential US SPR selling too. Adding to that, US president Trump has also said that the war
The risk mood continues to perk up as we get into European trading Read More »
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1640-50 levels. After the drop since the start of last week, we’re finally seeing the pair move back above its 100-hour moving average (seen at 1.1597 currently). However, price action continues to
FX option expiries for 10 March 10am New York cut Read More »
There is a significant amount of supply disruption to the market Almost 17% of total supply from the region goes through the Strait of Hormuz, so it is significant We are bringing the East-West pipeline to full capacity in the next couple of days We can speed it up but the issue was re-routing some
There is 180 million barrels of disruption so far, says Saudi Aramco CEO Read More »
Major US stock indices are rebounding after Trump said that the war could be over soon. He also said that he may look to lower sanctions on Russian oil. He said he is thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz and he has someone in mind to replace the Supreme Leader. Pres. Trump will
US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon Read More »
China’s trade data for January–February came in much stronger than expected. Exports (USD terms) rose 21.8% y/y (expected 7.1%, previous 6.6%). Imports (USD terms) increased 19.8% y/y (expected 6.3%, previous 5.7%). Trade balance printed at $213.62B, well above the $179.6B forecast (previous $114.10B). — Added, more detail here: China exports surge 21.8% as trade surplus
China’s trade data for January–February came in much stronger than expected Read More »
Japanese GDP Q4 2025, final. 0.3% q/q expected 0.3%, prior -0.6% Annualized 1.3% expected 1.2%, prior -2.3% GDP inflation measure 3.4% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.5% — External Demand 0% q/q expected 0.0%, prior -0.2% Capital Expenditure 1.3% q/q expected 1.1%, prior -0.2% Private Consumption 0.3% q/q expected 0.1%, prior 0.2% — I’ll have more
Japan Q4 GDP final revision improves from a porr preliminary result Read More »
Australian consumer sentiment edges higher but households remain pessimistic as inflation fears rise. Summary: Australian consumer sentiment rose modestly in March, breaking a three-month run of declines. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute index increased 1.2% to 91.6, though pessimists still outnumber optimists. Sentiment deteriorated later in the survey period as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran intensified. Inflation
Australian consumer sentiment rebounds slightly but inflation fears surge Read More »
Trump faces pressure from advisers to outline Iran war exit plan as oil prices surge. This is via the Wall Street Journal (gated), in brief below: Summary: Some advisers to Donald Trump are urging him to outline a path to exit the war with Iran amid rising oil prices and fears of political backlash. Trump
Trump advisers urge Iran war exit plan amid epic oil price surge. Epic Blunder? Read More »
It feels like the market sentiment has just been reset in the last 24 hours, which started after the G7 and IEA said that they were going to coordinate a joint release of emergency oil reserves. That adds to the story that the US might be pursuing a hefty SPR release as well. And then
The wild ride continues in the oil market Read More »
Summary: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded sharply to recent comments from Donald Trump, saying Tehran, not Washington, will determine when the war ends. The IRGC warned that if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, Iran could block regional oil exports. Iranian officials dismissed Trump’s remarks about Iran as “nonsense” and warned regional security would
Iran rejects Trump’s claims of progress in war, warns regional oil exports could halt Read More »
Earlier on Monday Trump did a TACO for the benefit of markets, sending oil down from its highs and boosting stocks: US Trump: The war could be over soon He has since spoken at a Republican conference where he has delivered much more mixed messaging. Summary: Donald Trump delivered hawkish remarks on the war with
Trump spoke with Republicans, still talking tough Read More »
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 39.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8982 (vs. estimate at 6.8891) Read More »
US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon US Trump: The war could be over soon Crude oil futures settle up $3.87 and $94.77 The good news? Crude oil is -16% off the high.The bad news? It is 10% higher on the day Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 9 Mar:M arkets rebound as oil slides on SPR hopes Read More »
Japanese Household Spending January 2026 -2.5% m/m expected +0.8%, prior -2.9% -1.0% y/y expected +2.5%, prior -2.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Japan January household spending unexpectedly falls 1.0% vs year ago Read More »
The AUDUSD moved lower earlier in the session, extending toward support before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. The bounce has helped stabilize price action after the earlier downside pressure, but the broader technical picture still leaves the pair battling between key levels. On the downside, the pair tested support near [insert
AUDUSD Technicals: AUDUSD rebounds but key resistance still ahead Read More »
Crude oil surged higher over the weekend as geopolitical tensions continued to threaten supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets. However, the rally lost momentum after G7 finance ministers met to discuss the situation and postponed any decision on releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) until tomorrow,
Crude oil futures settle up $3.87 and $94.77 Read More »
Just recapping this ICYMI. The main impact on the oil price was the news earlier re: US Trump: The war could be over soon But, this info is impactful at the margin. Like I said, ICYMI, see below. Summary: The U.S. is considering easing sanctions on Russian oil to stabilise global energy prices amid Middle
Announcement could be soon (ICYMI: US considers easing Russian oil sanctions) Read More »
The focus is of course the warmongers, not the data. Nevertheless it’s a busy data agenda. We’ll get revised GDP from Japan, for Q4 2025. The preliminary reading for this was disappointing. In brief, from the day of the flash data: Japan eked out weak Q4 growth, but momentum remained weak: Q4 GDP barely positive,
Economic and event calendar in Asia 10 March 2026 Read More »
Pres. Trump has told CBS news: “The war could be over soon” He says that the Iran War is very complete, pretty much” They have no Navy, no communications, they got no Air Force. The US is very far ahead of his initial 4 – 5 week estimated timeframe. Says that ships are moving through
US Trump: The war could be over soon Read More »
The USDCHF gapped higher at the start of trading, pushing the pair above the 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart). However, the upside momentum quickly stalled. The pair was unable to extend beyond Friday’s high near 0.7828, and sellers stepped in. The failure above that high led to a move back below the
USDCHF Technicals: USDCHF trapped between 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages Read More »
The USDJPY moved higher earlier today, testing a swing area near 158.89, a level that capped rallies on January 15 and January 22. Sellers leaned against that resistance, and the pair has since rotated lower. The move down has now brought the price toward the top of a key swing area between 157.65 and 157.97,
USDJPY technicals: USDJPY backs off 158.89 resistance. What next? Read More »
The USD is marginally lower against the CAD today, while the greenback is generally higher against most other major currencies. Earlier in the session, the USDCAD bottomed during the late European morning, reaching a low of 1.35242. That move tested a modest support zone between 1.35219 and 1.35316, where buyers stepped in and pushed the
USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD sellers lean against key short-term resistance Read More »
Prior -1.9%; revised to -1.0% The drag here also comes after a more positive revision to the December numbers, so keep that in mind. Still, German industrial output was much weaker in January amid a steeper drop in production in the manufacture of metal products (-12.4%). Looking at the breakdown, the production of consumer goods
Germany January industrial production -0.5% vs +1.0% m/m expected Read More »
Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while energy sees a surge The US stock market is experiencing a volatile session today, marked by significant sectoral shifts and investor uncertainty. The day’s trading has highlighted the tumult in the tech and financial sectors, while energy stocks display unexpected gains. 📉 Technology Sector Technology is under pressure today,
Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while energy sees a surge Read More »
The GBPUSD fell sharply at the open, extending below a key swing area between 1.3298 and 1.3305. The downside momentum pushed the pair to a session low at 1.3282 before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound. That recovery gathered momentum as the price moved back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3347, where it
GBPUSD Technicals: GBPUSD rebounds but tests key resistance Read More »
Crude oil prices have eased, trading below $100 at $96.72 after earlier reaching a low of $94.65. The move lower comes as markets speculate that G7 energy ministers may release strategic petroleum reserves when they meet tomorrow, which has helped calm some of the earlier inflation and risk concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. yields are slightly lower,
EURUSD Tecnicals: EURUSD rebounds as oil eases and markets stabilize Read More »
Prior was +2.4% Real cash earnings +1.4% vs +0.9% expected Overtime pay vs +1.5% prior Japan’s Monthly Labour Survey, published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), is one of the country’s most closely watched economic indicators. The report tracks average monthly cash earnings across establishments with five or more employees, encompassing contractual
Japanese January labour cash earnings +3.0% vs +2.4% prior Read More »
It’s a tough one, not least when the euro is also under heavy pressure amid surging gas prices. That as the energy disruption continues to permeate, with Iran striking key energy facilities across Gulf nations still. The latest being Bahrain as seen here earlier. The SNB seemed like they were comfortable enough to want to
EUR/CHF falls through 0.90, SNB to redraw the line in the sand? Read More »
High oil prices hit Japan harder than anywhere and its going to be an ugly one in stock markets today. Nikkei 225 futures are trading down 7.3% ahead of the cash open. The index tried to stage a rally on Friday, finishing up 0.6% to wrap up a bruising week but it’s going to get
Nikkei futures are down a whopping 7.3% Read More »
G7 finance ministers met in their statement said that they will continue to closely monitoring the markets, and stand ready to take necessary measures possibly including the release of strategic petroleum reserves. They said that they would meet again tomorrow. The price of crude oil stored earlier today to a high of $119.48. Since then,
The good news? Crude oil is -16% off the high.The bad news? It is 10% higher on the day Read More »
Here are the levels/net change from Friday’s close /percentage change: Euro: 1.1546 | -0.0072 | -0.62% Japanese yen: 158.04 | 0.25 | 0.16% British pound: 1.3339 | -0.0072 | -0.54% Swiss franc: 0.7787 | 0.0030 | 0.39% Canadian dollar: 1.3600 | 0.0033 | 0.24% Australian dollar: 0.6982 | -0.0048 | -0.68% New Zealand dollar: 0.5864
Monday morning early forex indications: USD broadly stronger as the war picture worsens Read More »
Prior 4.2 No surprises there as the index drops off amid the initial impact of the US-Iran conflict. I would expect investor sentiment to worsen further if given the chance to see another survey after the latest surge in oil and gas prices. For some context, the survey here was conducted from 5 March to
Eurozone March Sentix investor confidence -3.1 vs -5.0 expected Read More »
Shares of Aureus Greenway Holdings (NASDAQ: AUGS) surged roughly 55% after the Wall Street Journalreported that the company will merge with Powerus, a drone manufacturer backed by the sons of President Trump. According to the report, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. support Powerus through their investment vehicle American Ventures. The deal will take place
Aureus Greenway shares soar on Trump-backed drone merger Read More »
There is a report that the White House is mulling releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), but no formal decision has been made. According to Politico there is fierce opposition to tapping the SPR. Those who oppose tapping the reserve say a release would solve what they consider the underlying problem (war?). The
White House is mulling releasing oil from the SPR, but no formal decision has been made. Read More »
Crude oil is higher to start the day, and that shift is weighing on broader risk sentiment. US stocks are lower, US yields are higher, and the USD is firmer, reflecting the market’s reaction to rising energy prices and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. At the bottom of the hour, G7 officials are scheduled to meet to
The USD is higher but off the highs for the day. What next technically? Read More »
Ethereum analysis today Ethereum futures are trading near $1,986, stabilizing after the recent pullback from the $2,100 area. This stabilization is happening under a very unusual macro backdrop. The futures market opened less than six hours ago to start the new trading week on March 9, 2026, and global markets immediately reacted to the ongoing
Ethereum analysis: crypto remains resilient despite global risk-off shock Read More »
Well, if there was any question about whether Trump was watching the oil futures open, it’s been laid to rest. He wrote on Truth Social: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety
Trump: Oil will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over Read More »
Axios reports that Trump is unhappy that Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday. From the report: Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according
Trump unhappy about Israel’s Iran fuel strikes – report Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak
Indian Rupee hits fresh record low despite RBI intervention amid continuing US-Iran war Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices jumped above 100$ per barrel today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and the market feared that the conflict could extend beyond what was previously expected. The momentum picked up already on Friday after Qatar’s Energy Minister warned that prices could surge to 150$ on a prolonged war.
Today is now the largest one-day percentage gain in oil futures history, or it will be if it holds. The April contract just crossed a 25% gain. That breaks the record on April 2, 2020. On that day, WTI jumped 24.7% to $25.32 in anticipation of significant production cuts after Trump said Saudi Arabia and
Today is now the largest one-day percentage gain for crude oil ever Read More »
The FX market offered an early indication of a strong risk-off move in early trading this week and the futures market paints that much more clearly. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday and futures are down another 1.4% at the open. Gold initially rallied at the open but is now down $25 in a
Futures open: Oil jumps $10 and US crude rises above $100 (Now to $111) Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been surprisingly resilient last week despite the surging oil prices and the global risk aversion. That resilience seems to have finally waned after oil prices surged into triple digit territory and the prospects of a quick end to the war dimmed. The S&P 500 broke below the December lows
S&P 500 falls below December lows, opening the door for a retest of November’s trough Read More »
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.7000 level. The pair managed to stave off a daily close below the figure level last week but the pressure is mounting amid an even bigger spike in oil prices to start
FX option expiries for 9 March 10am New York cut Read More »
Headlines: G7 members, IEA reportedly to discuss on joint release of emergency oil reserves Oil price surge relents as G7 mulls coordination with IEA to release emergency oil reserves Oil prices ease after record jump as G7 considers emergency reserve release. Is it enough? Everything that Trump hates is what is happening in markets Japan
investingLive European markets wrap: Oil prices come off the boil, eyes on G7/IEA action Read More »
Hard to say how the conflict in the Middle East could affect Japan’s economy Many citizens are worried about rising gasoline prices The government is scrutinising to see what steps it can take Any steps taken to mitigate the impact won’t likely involve changes to the fiscal year 2026 budget In just a week, Japan
Japan prime minister Takaichi: Hard to say how Middle East conflict could affect economy Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak
USDJPY back at the “intervention” level as the US-Iran war keeps the US Dollar supported Read More »
Before the war started, I mentioned that a US-Iran conflict would likely have disastrous effects on the markets and the global economy due to stagflation risks. The reason is simple: severe oil supply disruptions raise costs across the economy, reduce consumer spending and business investment, create inflation, and slow economic growth. Central banks cannot fix
Rate cut bets evaporate amid surging oil prices but rate hike expectations are overblown Read More »
The bleeding continues after a terrible period last week, which saw major indices in Europe wipe out their year-to-date gains in just a matter of days. That even after having hit fresh record highs in the week before the US-Iran conflict starting up. Here’s a snapshot for the day and how it all factors in
European indices continue to tumble as Middle East conflict weighs further Read More »
Monday begins quietly, with no significant events scheduled for the FX market, though geopolitical developments in the Middle East could influence USD movements. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index, Japan will publish final GDP q/q, and the U.S. will report the ADP weekly employment change. While this release is usually not
Market outlook for the week of 9th-13th March Read More »
Prior was +0.2% y/y CPI m/m +1.0% vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m CPI was +0.2% PPI y/y -0.9% vs -1.2% expected Prior y/y PPI was -1.4% This is a hot reading and will be even hotter with the energy price rise in March. This is the highest reading in three years. China’s Consumer Price Index,
China February CPI +1.3% vs +0.8% expected Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. In fact, the focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war and surging oil
What are the main events for today? Read More »
It is being reported by Reuters that there is thick smoke rising from the direction of Bahrain’s Bapco oil refinery. This is one of the oldest and most strategic energy hubs in the region, with Bahrain even investing heavily to modernise the facility and infrastructure. For some context, the energy accounts for roughly 70% of
Bahrain’s major oil refinery also reportedly struck by Iranian drone attack Read More »
Today is now worse than Liberation Day for Australian stock markets. The ASX 200 is down 4.3%, breaking the April 7, 2025 drop of 4.2%. In March 2020, it had drops of 9.7% and 7.4% which were the worst this decade. With today’s drop, the index is back to November levels and it it falls
It’s the worst day for Australian stock markets since 2020 Read More »
Even with the decline, oil prices are still some 14% higher on the day so far. It underscores the fact that that the roughly $12 drop is just a minor knock. And that typically is what the IEA reserves release tends to suggest in extraordinary circumstances. It was the same back in 2022 amid the
Oil prices ease as G7 mulls coordination with IEA to release emergency oil reserves Read More »
Gold opened higher on the day and touched $5196 in a quick spike to start the day. It barely lasted a minute though and it’s been straight lower since then with gold now down $102 to $5066, about a 2% decline. Silver is 3% lower. Last week, gold was lower overall but it rallied in
Gold extends drop to $100 as the Asia bid fails to emerge Read More »
It’s always darkest just before dawn. We’re one TACO away from a massive reversal in sentiment. The question is: Will Iran (and Israel) agree to stop the bombs if Trump asks? That would be a huge climbdown from the President but he’s not going to like headlines about oil going up the most in one-day
Australian dollar reccovers somewhat. What we’re watching. Read More »
What a scintillating start to the new week this is. Oil prices have surged by well over 20%, poised for its largest one-day gain on record. And we’re talking about prices near $120 again after having initially hesitated to get above $80 last week. I mentioned last week already that the $80 mark was the
Everything that Trump hates is what is happening in markets Read More »
The euro is coming under increasing strain as the depth of the energy shortage from the Iran war comes into clearer focus. European countries are highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and — particularly — natural gas from Qatar as vital energy sources. Prices of benchmark European gas have surged and that will
Euro nears the November lows as energy crisis looms Read More »
The Financial Times is reporting that G7 finance ministers will be discussing a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by the IEA later today. That in accordance to their meeting set up from last week here. I guess this meeting just went from one that was rather lame to become quite an important
G7 members, IEA reportedly to discuss on joint release of emergency oil reserves Read More »
Mon: Eurogroup Meeting, Chinese Inflation (Feb), Japanese GDP Final (Q4),Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Jan) Tue: EIA STEO, Chinese Trade Balance (Jan-Feb), German Trade Balance (Jan) Wed: OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Feb) Thu: CBRT Policy Announcement, IEA OMR,US PPI (Feb) Fri: UK GDP (Jan), US PCE (Jan), US GDP 2nd Est (Q4), US JOLTS (Jan), Fitch
Newsquawk Week In Focus: US and China inflation, UK GDP, China Trade and CBRT Read More »
Prior +7.8%; revised to +6.4% When you exclude large orders, overall factory orders in Germany were just 0.4% lower than in December last year. Once again, it reflects the volatile swings in large orders mostly with December recording a major jump – its highest level since February 2022. The less volatile three-month comparison for new
Germany January industrial orders -11.1% vs -4.5% m/m expected Read More »
Trump unhappy about Israel’s Iran fuel strikes – report Iran chooses Khamenei’s son as new Supreme Leader China February CPI +1.3% vs +0.8% expected Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected Japanese January labour cash earnings +3.0% vs +2.4% prior Trump: Oil will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat
investingLive Asia-Pacific market news wrap: It’s the largest one-day rise in oil, ever Read More »
USD/JPY is closing in on the highest levels of the year. The pair is up 80 pips so far today to 158.59, breaking above last week’s peak and trading at the best levels since January 22. That was the day of the widely-publicized Ministry of Finance rate check via US banks late on a Friday.
Rough day in Japan as the yen falls and the Nikkei plunges Read More »
United States Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is a strong Trump supporter and he was on Fox News on the weekend and had this to say: “If we get in a fight, I want to win it quick. I’m in Miami. You see this hat? ‘Free Cuba.’ Stay tuned. The liberation of Cuba is
Lindsey Graham: The liberation of Cuba is upon us Read More »
Prior was 728.8B yen Current account in goods vs 134.9B prior Japan’s current account balance, published monthly by the Ministry of Finance, is one of the broadest measures of the country’s international transactions. It captures the trade balance in goods and services, primary income (mainly investment returns from overseas assets), and secondary income (transfers). As
Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected Read More »
Nonfarm payrolls came in at -92K in February, a massive miss against the +55K consensus. To add insult to injury, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 69K. The three-month average pace of job growth is now running at a paltry 6K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Not
Recap of non-farm payrolls: -92K and revisions make it worse Read More »
The major US stock indices are closing lower with the broader indices down over 1.3% and the Dow 30, down -0.95%. Looking at the closing levels: Dow industrial average -453.19 points or -0.95% at 47501.55 S&P index -90.69 points or -1.33% at 6740.02. NASDAQ index -361.31 points or -1.59% at 22387.68. Russell 2000 of small-cap
US stocks close sharply lower. Indices are down for the week. Read More »
U.S. officials are set to launch a $20 billion reinsurance facility designed to support Gulf shipping and help restart maritime cargo coverage. The program is expected to be unveiled on Friday by DFC Chief Executive Ben Black and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. According to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the initiative will partner with
U.S. to launch $20B reinsurance facility for Gulf shipping Read More »
China gold reserves at the end of February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces In January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of February 2026: $387.59 billion In January 2026: $369.58 billion Is anyone really surprised? China has arguably the biggest buyer out there for a while now. And that
China’s gold buying spree continues as reserves climb for a 16th straight month Read More »
EURUSD: GBPUSD: GBPUSD held support at an upward-sloping trendline on the hourly chart earlier today and then pushed higher, breaking above the 100-hour moving average and holding above it into the New York afternoon session. That move gives buyers something to build on in the near term. However, there is still work to be done
A technical look at the major currency pairs going into the new trading week Read More »
US stocks close sharply lower. Indices are down for the week. Fed’s Hammack: Dollar dominance remains intact as Fed stays patient Fed’s Collins: Expects the Fed rate target to hold steady for some time U.S. to launch $20B reinsurance facility for Gulf shipping Iran launches attack on US forces in Bahrain, and in Baghdad. ECB
It is Fed Collins turn to speak aa the clock ticks to the blackout period ahead of the Fed decision on March 18 starting after the close. Expects theFed rate target to hold steady for some time Now is time for the Fed to be patient and deliberative with rate policy To cut rates again,
Fed’s Collins: Expects the Fed rate target to hold steady for some time Read More »
Inflation is “too high” and price pressures are broad based Rate policy likely to remain on hold for quite some time Fed policy is in a good position to navigate inflation and labor challenges Remains committed to meeting the Fed’s inflation mandate The inflation problem extends beyond tariffs It would take a lot to dethrone
Fed’s Hammack: Dollar dominance remains intact as Fed stays patient Read More »
ECB’s Isabel Schnabel is is speaking and says: Temporary inflation overshoot is of little relevance if expectations remain anchored. ECB is still in a good place Iran war creates upside inflation risks. Central bank must monitor persistence of energy price shock Post-pandemic lessons suggest ECB must tread carefully. With inflation projected to be at our
ECB Schnabel: ECB is still in a good place, but war increases upside inflation risks Read More »
Today’s stock market revealed a turbulent yet dynamic trading environment, as the tech sector faltered while energy stocks outperformed. The trading landscape was riddled with red, except for a few bright spots in specific sectors, reflecting broader market uncertainty. 📉 Technology and Semiconductor Struggles Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is experiencing considerable pressure. Key players such
Market turbulence: Tech stocks falter as energy sector shines Read More »
Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeffrey Schmid is speaking and says: Businesses are pausing on hiring. Labor market is under a structural not cyclical strain Jeffrey Schmid leans to the hawkish side on the Federal Reserve. In his most recent public appearance on March 3, 2026, he signaled his continued opposition to further interest-rate cuts, stating
Kansas City Fed Pres. Schmid: Businesses are pausing on hiring Read More »
Prior 130K revise to 126K nonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimate December was 48K. November was 41K Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%. Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4% average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%. Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from
US January non-farm payrolls -92K vs +59K expected Read More »
Reports that Iran is launching attacks on US forces in Bahrain, and also attacking military base housing US diplomatic centered near Baghdad international airport. The price of crude oil is extending above the $92 level. The high price of just reached $92.61. The current price is trading at $92.20. That’s up $11.19 or 13.81% on
Iran launches attack on US forces in Bahrain, and in Baghdad. Read More »
The situation in the Middle East remains the main story, as it has been in markets all week long. The optimists are looking for signs of de-escalation but so far, the actions on the ground continue to tell the story that the military conflict is carrying on. The latest developments since overnight trading did at
Oil prices stay in focus as traders look to position themselves into the weekend Read More »
Fed Miran on CNBC is saying: Hesitant to read too much into one month jobs report. Policy is mis-calibrated monetary policy is too tight. Fed typically does not respond to oil prices. If anything biases me toward even more dovish policy. Hesitant to respond to oil prices until we know more It is hard to
Fed Gov. Miran: Hesitant to read too much into one month job report Read More »
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level once more. It’s the same approach as it has been all week with the expiries once again sitting at the figure level. The key driver of trading sentiment in FX
FX option expiries for 6 March 10am New York cut Read More »
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 has declined to 2.1% from 3.2%. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 2.1 percent on March 6, down from 3.0 percent on March 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate 2.1% versus 3.2% previously Read More »
At some point we will all regret the “I did my own research” and “don’t trust the media” stances. We certainly need more-professional media but something about social media broke everything to do with the consumption of information and we are headed towards a dark place because of it. The algo amplifies the worst stuff
Fed’s Goolsbee: Institutions are facing a crisis of trust Read More »
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Read More »
Major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off the lowest levels. A late day fall in crude oil from a high of $82.16 down to the current level is $79.65 helped to shift the bias on hopes the worst has passed. Looking at the major indices: Dow industrial average fell
US stocks close lower but rebound into the close Read More »
The initial reaction to the February U.S. nonfarm payroll report saw the dollar move lower after the headline employment figure came in weaker than expected. Job growth slowed and several sectors posted declines, including construction, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality. The report was also weighed down by a sharp drop in private education and health
The USD moved lower but has since bounce back after the weaker than expected jobs report Read More »
The price of crude oil has continued its sharp move to the upside. The current price is trading at $88.74. For the trading day versus the settle price from yesterday at $81.01: Price change: $88.74 − $81.01 = +$7.73 Percent gain: (7.73 ÷ 81.01) × 100 = +9.54% The high price extended to $89.62 just
Crude oil futures stretch toward $90 a barrel Read More »
For what it is worth, the US business and retail inventories for the month of December was released: Business inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month was revised lower to 0.0% from 0.1%. Retail inventories rose 0.4% versus 0.2% last month. It is early March, so the data is old. This article was written
US business inventories for December 0.1% versus 0.1% expected Read More »
The jobs report was a tough mess. It is just one month but it was not a good month. If we get several months like this data, it would be of concern. It is hopeful that we see continued progress on inflation. Hopeful that we can resume the rate cuts by the end of the
Fed’s Goolsbee: The jobs report was a tough miss. It was not a good month. Read More »
We’re starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it’s been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week. Right
Oil prices resume climb to start European morning trade Read More »
The mood is improving in Asia. The steady selling of risk assets and flight to the US dollar has given way to some optimism in Asia and that’s reflected in decent bids in the Australian dollar and broad USD weakness. That’s come with some oil selling as the US floats more measures to stop the
Australian dollar climbs as a positive risk mood leads to US dollar selling Read More »
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 35 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 13 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 8 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end RBA: 55 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and
High energy prices and ECB rate hike bets weigh on the euro as growth outlook worsens Read More »
Fed Pres. Mary Daly (2027 voting member) on CNBC and says: One month of data is decisional right now inflation is above target. It’s a balance of risks calculation. Hope last year’s rate cuts would put a floor under job market, but this report has my attention. With oil prices increasing the question is how
San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly: No one month of data is decisional Read More »
The report notes that Tokyo is considering to release its national oil stockpile, even without coordinated international action. The headline sounds convoluted but there’s more nuance to it when you put things into context. Now, Japan is not an oil exporter and in fact relies heavily on oil imports – one of the biggest economies
Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves amid Middle East conflict Read More »
Headlines: Oil prices resume climb to start European morning trade Qatar warns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy exports for weeks to months Qatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shut What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got stuck in a consolidation after the selloff experienced at the beginning of the week. We saw mixed and confusing moves across different markets with crude oil being the only one making sense. The focus is of course on the US-Iran war and especially on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains virtually
Gold consolidates around key levels ahead of NFP as we enter the 7th day of US-Iran war Read More »
Prior was 0.0% Details: Ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.0% expected Prior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.3% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%) Control group +0.3%% vs +0.2% expected Prior control -0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs +2.4% prior This is January data, so it’s old news and it’s not going
US January retail sales -0.2% vs -0.3% expected Read More »
The clock is ticking on the USMCA joint review and Scotiabank just released a comprehensive report that’s worth a read. “The future of [USMCA] is the single most consequential macro uncertainty facing the Canadian economy this year,” the report says. The good news first: Scotiabank’s baseline is that USMCA gets ratified or extended with limited
Scotiabank’s base case is USMCA renewal — but the tail risks are worth pricing Read More »
Prior +0.3% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Eurozone Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q second estimate Read More »
The FT reports that pressure on the Arab Gulf states’ finances could cause them to review their overseas investments and commitments. The cost of the war is beginning to mount as Iran strikes at US allies and US bases in the region. This report is undoubtedly aimed at putting pressure on the US to either
Gulf states could review overseas investments – report Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been surprisingly resilient this week even though the US-Iran war kept a lid on the market. The conflict entered its 7th day today and the risk of things deteriorating further and eventually dragging the stock market to new lows remains high. In fact, the longer this war drags on,
The upside in the S&P 500 remains limited despite resilience amid the US-Iran war Read More »
Will find out today if the labour market is turning a corner January job gains were concentrated, did not give comfort that economy as a whole was doing well Expect January jobs number to be revised down Could see the March meeting going either way depending on the data Don’t see a lot of tariff
A coming hot PCE and a solid jobs report would signal the Fed should wait, says Waller Read More »
In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as the price action defines the bias, the risk and targets during the news driven market. That news will shift – at least temporarily to the US jobs report and the
US Non-farm Payroll takes center stage. What are the technicals telling traders? Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final Eurozone Q4 GDP report. This is very old data by now, so the market reaction will be muted. In fact, we are almost at the end of Q1 2026 and what happens next with the US-Iran war will
What are the main events for today? Read More »
The Ras Laffan plant was already shut down earlier this week, after it was targeted by Iranian drone attacks. The plant covers about a fifth of the world’s LNG supply and is the world’s largest export facility in that regard. The latest report from Bloomberg states that as the plant remains shut down, Qatar is
Qatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shut Read More »
Prediction Score: +2 / +10 Primary bias right now: neutral to slightly bullish repair, but still inside a decision zone. I would change that view if price close below the Value Area Low. What’s that? You will learn about that here. Looking only at this daily chart for NVDA, the biggest message from the two
NVDA Technical Analysis Read More »
Japan has not fully exited from deflation Compiling extra budget would of course be an option as said before Government ready to take steps in a timely manner to combat economic impact from US-Iran conflict Markets are making big moves so we will respond nimbly while closely communicating with peers With all the focus on
Japan finance minister says will respond nimbly to latest market movements Read More »
China hopes to convince Iran to allow LNG to pass through Hormuz Gulf states could review overseas investments – report Fed’s Goolsbee: Institutions are facing a crisis of trust US admiral: Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% Trump says Iran is contacting them seeking guidance on negotiating a deal Costco beats on earnings
investingLive Asia-Pacific market news wrap: The mood improves modestly Read More »
Prior +0.7% Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continue to edge up in February, with the average property price now touching £301,151 – marking a new record high. The annual growth for house prices also accelerated further to 1.3%, its strongest in four months. Halifax notes that: “The housing market
UK February Halifax house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected Read More »
Just like the case of undershooting, we can also tolerate a small inflation overshoot I haven’t dramatically changed my view on policy outlook We are still in a good place We have learnt lessons from 2021/22 but comparisons with the current situation are not entirely valid Comfortable holding gold reserves at the Fed, confident in
ECB policymaker Sleijpen: We can tolerate a small inflation overshoot Read More »
BOJ keeping monetary conditions accommodative Gradually adjusting degree of monetary accommodation Japan is seeing inflation in the sense that consumer prices are rising But it is up to the government to decide whether Japan is out of deflation BOJ does not directly target exchange rate Will continue to scrutinise market moves, impact on the economy
BOJ policymaker Himino: Underlying inflation gradually accelerating to 2% target Read More »
Reuters is reporting that China is in direct talks with Iran to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for crude and Qatari LNG vessels. They cited three three diplomatic sources who are unnamed. We’re on day six of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the Strait is effectively closed for business, with about
China hopes to convince Iran to allow LNG to pass through Hormuz Read More »
The headlines here are starting to weigh on the market mood once again now as Kaabi warns that this could even drive oil prices up to $150 a barrel. He warns that while not all parties in the region have called for a force majeure yet, in which QatarEnergy has already done so, it will
US stocks close lower but rebound into the close Crude oil settles at $6.35 higher or 8.51% at $81.01 Kristi Noem is replaced as Homeland Security Secretary. Pres. Trump not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) European indices close sharply lower after reversing earlier gains Oil jumps above $78 helped by reported
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 5 Mar: Geopolitics continue to drive the markets Read More »
The Kospi opened down just over 1% after some utterly crazy moves this week. The Korean index had been swinging upwards of 10% daily, and this looks like a much more ‘normal’ day. Note though that the open breaks yesterday’s low, which isn’t a good sign. In Japan, the Nikkei opened down 1.1%. Asia stocks
Nikkei and Kospi both open more than 1% lower Read More »
Costco came in ahead on the top and bottom line in the after-hours report today. EPS landed at $4.58 vs. the $4.55 estimate, while total revenue hit $69.60B against the $69.27B consensus. Net income rose to $2.035B from $1.788B a year ago — a 13.8% jump. The comp sales numbers are where it gets interesting
Costco beats on earnings but little reaction from shares Read More »
CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is highlighting something that markets should keep in mind: “If I just look back over the last 24 hours of the operation compared to the where we were to start, ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90%… Drone attacks have decreased by 83%… we’re now up over 30 ships [destroyed].”
US admiral: Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% Read More »
US stocks are bouncing higher after a report that China is in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil moved lower off of the news, and stocks have rallied off of lows. The S&P index moved up from a low of 6771 or
Stocks move higher after report that China in talks with Iran to get oil Read More »
Gold is on track to finish the week about $45 lower but you wouldn’t know it from Asia-Pacific trading this week. Every day since the start of the war we’ve seen significant gains in Asian trading, often fading later in the day. That strength is a hint at where the bids are coming from: China.
The bid for gold in Asia has been relentless thsi week Read More »
Crude oil prices are expecting higher and trading above the $80 level. The current price is trading at $80.67 up $4.57 or 6.02%. The high price just spiked to $81. That move took the price above the high price reached in January 2025 at the start of the Trump term. That high in January 2025
Crude oil spikes up to $81. The highest level since January 2025 Read More »
Is this the start of the end? Trump also said that further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent. Trump talked about a 4-5 week schedule but he hates: High oil prices Falling stock prices The market pricing out rate cuts (down to 36 bps from 60 bps before war) War in general In
Trump says Iran is contacting them seeking guidance on negotiating a deal Read More »
Crude oil crude oil futures settle at $81.01. That’s up $6.35 or 8.51%. The gain is the largest since April 9, 2025. The high price reached $81.64. The low price was at $74.97. The price is trading at its highest level going back to July 2024. Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma’amir
Crude oil settles at $6.35 higher or 8.51% at $81.01 Read More »
Pres. Trump has replaced Homeland security Sec. Kristi Noem with Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullen. Kristi Noem has been under political pressure due to several controversies involving immigration enforcement, spending decisions, and congressional scrutiny. Immigration enforcement incident A fatal incident involving immigration enforcement agents triggered protests and raised questions from lawmakers about the use of force
Kristi Noem is replaced as Homeland Security Secretary. Read More »
Pres. Trump is saying that he is not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve or SPR. Trump was critical about the SPR reduction during the Biden Presidency. However, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently estimated to hold around 415 million barrels of crude oil, which is modestly higher than the level near
Pres. Trump not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) Read More »
The NZDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking below a lower channel trendline that had defined the pair’s trading range since early February. That break triggered a momentum move toward a key support target at 0.5834, though the path there was anything but clean — price action was choppy, with notable two-way volatility along the way. The
NZDUSD finding support against a familiar channel trend line Read More »
The major European indices tried to continue the rebound to the upside early in the session, but stalled and reversed the sharply to the downside. German Dax was up 161.44 points at session highs. It is closing down -431.29 points or -1.78%. France’s CAC was up 47.28 points at session highs, is closing down -121.93
European indices close sharply lower after reversing earlier gains Read More »
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 750 points, or 1.54%. The S&P 500 is down by 54 points, or 0.78%, while the NASDAQ index is the least affected, with a decline of 112.5 points, or 0.49%. Concerns over escalating oil prices are starting to take a toll on stock prices. Crude oil has
Stocks moving lower. NASDAQ index back below its 100 hour moving average. Read More »
Below is a summary of the Beige Book from a national ad regional perspective: National Perspective Overall Economic Activity Economic activity rose at a slight to moderate pace in 7 of 12 districts, while 5 districts reported flat or declining activity, an increase from four previously. Consumer spending increased slightly overall, but two districts reported
Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity increased at a slight/ moderate pace Read More »
Well, this is moving faster than anyone expected. A federal trade court judge just told the Trump administration to start cutting checks — ordering refunds on the massive pile of tariffs the Supreme Court struck down last month. This is a significant potential bit of stimulus for the US economy as it relates to $130
A federal trade-court judge ordered a swift repayment of tariffs. Why it matters Read More »
Shifting focus to crypto, Bitcoin’s breakout earlier this week has paused near $69K as short-term pressure builds and traders digest the prior upside push. But underneath the headline move in BTC, the broader digital asset complex was showing a more nuanced recovery very early yesterday, with Ether quietly looking stronger on the margin. Then as
ETH analysis: Order flow hints post-breakout rotation past $2,000 (Score: +3/10) Read More »
Sky News Arabia reported that Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said “Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that the United States presents a satisfactory alternative offer”. Yesterday, we got the news that Iran has been secretly contacting the US to reach a deal and end the conflict, although Iran dismissed those reports
Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US makes a satisfactory offer Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and
Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma’amir area was attacked, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets. Recently, crude oil prices showed some disconnect with the headlines. The market was less concerned thinking that damage would be minimal. However, as trading progressed – and more reports about disruptions surfaced – the
Oil jumps above $78 helped by reported attack on Bahrain facility Read More »
The USD/CHF is currently locked in a confined 40-pip trading range as the market searches for a definitive catalyst. Buyers and sellers are battling for control, with price action oscillating between key technical “swing areas.” Key Technical Levels to Watch 1. The Resistance (The Ceiling): 0.7812 – 0.7821 The topside of the current range is
USDCHF Technical Analysis: “Swissie” grinds within tight 40-Pip range Read More »
Sector Overview The US stock market paints a mixed picture today as sectors vie for dominance. Notably, the energy sector is leading the charge with key players like ExxonMobil and Chevron posting significant gains of 1.37% and 1.36% respectively. In contrast, the communication services sector sees declines, with major stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) down by
Energy and tech sectors drive mixed market movements Read More »
Prior 46.4 Residential building was the main reason for the drag in overall construction activity in February, being the weakest-performing segment (37.0) once again. That being said, there were also contractions in both commercial construction activity (46.5) and civil engineering work (41.0) with the latter slumping to its softest since September last year. S&P Global
UK February construction PMI 44.5 vs 47.0 expected Read More »
Import Prices: Prior month import prices 0.1% revised higher to 0.2% Import prices MoM for January 0.2% vs 0.2% expected Import Prices YoY x.x% vs 0.0% last month Export Prices: Prior month export prices 0.3% revised higher to 0.6% Export prices MoM 0.6% vs 0.3%. The U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes are released monthly
US import prices for January 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected. Export prices 0.6% vs 0.3% expected Read More »
This isn’t a change but it’s worth monitoring as we get inundated with headlines from the National People’s Congress today. It’s also worth watching Chinese stock markets today with gains of around 1% led by AI and chip makers. Consumer stocks are up about 0.5%, which shows that the pledge to boost the consumer isn’t
China to continue ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy Read More »
US-based employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February 2026, and that is down ~72% compared to the same month last year. Some good news is that through February, employers announced 156,742 job cuts in total. That marks the lowest January-to-February total since 2022. But when you put things into better context, it is the fifth-highest
US February Challenger layoffs 48.307k vs 108.435k prior Read More »
The consensus is for a softer reading in the headline non-farm payrolls figure, following the strong showing in January. The first month of the year typically has seasonal factors imbued and this time, we are expected to see job gains of 59k. One known downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health
A friendly reminder that we do have the US non-farm payrolls tomorrow Read More »
Headlines: Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US makes a satisfactory offer Is this a hint that the US-Iran conflict might stretch on for much longer? ECB’s de Guindos: Baseline scenario is that US-Iran will be a short conflict ECB policymaker Villeroy: I do not see reason today why we should
investingLive European markets wrap: Caution holds as focus stays on US-Iran conflict Read More »
Prior 44.7 This marks back-to-back decreases in German construction activity to start the new year, following a brief return to growth at the end of 2025. The civil engineering sub-sector recorded growth but that is in contrast to the sharp declines in work in both the housing and commercial segments. On the price front, average
Germany February construction PMI 43.7 vs 44.7 prior Read More »
Gold prices have seen a sharp intraday reversal, erasing early gains to trade firmly in the red. The turnaround followed reports that central bank reserves might be sold to fund defense spending. Currently, Gold is trading at $5,105, down $35 (-0.65%) on the day. Technical Breakdown: The Resistance Wall The early session rally hit a
Market Update: Gold reverses gains amid central-bank selling chatter Read More »
The main issue that market players are struggling to grasp right now is the relative uncertainty with regards to the duration of the US-Iran conflict. That mainly affects the energy security in the region, especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz and threats to other oil and gas facilities in Gulf nations. In turn,
Is this a hint that the US-Iran conflict might stretch on for much longer? Read More »
Prior was 212K (revised to 213K) Continuing claims 1868K vs 1850K expected Prior 1833K (revised to 1822K) Initial claims beat, while continuing claims miss. They are both in the range of estimates though and not showing any material change. The market reaction has been minimal as the focus remains on the US-Iran war. Tomorrow, we
US initial jobless claims 213K vs 215K expected Read More »
Prior -0.5%; revised to +0.2% The breakdown shows an increase in retail sales for food, drinks, tobacco (+0.3%), offset by a decline in sales for non-food products (-0.2%) and automotive fuel in specialised stores (-1.1%). But relative to the same month last year, euro area retail sales is at least seen up 2.0%. The monthly
Eurozone January retail sales -0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected Read More »
Fed’s Barkin is on Bloomberg TV and says: Productivity and corporate margins 2.8% productivity growth is still a solid number. Strong productivity is helping firms maintain steady margins, allowing companies to absorb some tariff-related costs. Geopolitics and energy prices Too early to assess the economic implications of the Iran war. Gas prices still matter for
Feds Barkin: Recent inflation data does raise doubts about whether the fight is over Read More »
TMGM, Official Regional Partner of Chelsea Football Club, successfully presented the highly anticipated “The Famous CFC” Bangkok fan experience event on 1 March, bringing together hundreds of fans from across the Asia-Pacific region for an unforgettable night of football passion and exclusive experiences. Chelsea legend and former captain John Terry made a special appearance at
TMGM Joins Forces with Chelsea to Successfully Present “The Famous CFC” Bangkok Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the construction PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks or the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and
What are the main events for today? Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and
Unit labor costs for Q4 Prior quarter -1.9% revised to -1.8% Unit Labor costs for Q4 2.8% vs 2.0% expected More details on Unit Labor costs from the BLS: Hourly compensation rose 5.7%, partly offset by 2.8% productivity growth. Year-over-year: Unit labor costs increased 1.3% over the past four quarters. Real hourly compensation: +3.1% in
US unit labor costs for Q4 2.8% versus 2.0% expected. Productivity 2.8% vs 1.9% expected Read More »
The US Dollar is trading higher heading into the North American session. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of a 8:30 AM ET data dump, which includes Weekly Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, and Q4 Unit Labor Cost/Productivity data. Key Economic Forecasts: Jobless Claims: 215K expected (vs. 212K previously). Import/Export Prices: Expected to rise 0.2% and 0.3%,
The USD is higher to start the North American session Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices remain supported amid the US-Iran war and the virtually closed Strait of Hormuz. The bullish momentum has waned though due to some de-escalatory signals in the past couple of days. Just this morning, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran was ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that
The upside momentum in oil prices is waning amid tentative signs of de-escalation Read More »
The volatile trading continues on the week and it’s tough to hold any intraday convictions. S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 0.5% earlier on but have now climbed back up to pare losses to be up 0.1% on the day. The only plausible headline I’m seeing that ties closely is one reported
US futures bounce back up again, dollar pares gains on the day too Read More »
The China National People’s Congress kicks off today and the five-year growth targets and plan are out, with Reuters obtaining a copy. 2026 GDP target set at 4.5% to 5% CPI target set at around 2% Growth rate set for ‘reasonable rate’ for the next five years Will set 2026 budget deficit at 4% of
China five-year plan calls for more proactive fiscal policy Read More »
The Asia-Pacific economic calendar has only one highlight today and that’s the Australian January trade balance in goods report. The consensus is a surplus of A$3.9 billion, in a solid improvement from +$3.337 billion in December. Yesterday’s price action in AUD was strange as it was a laggard despite the stronger GDP number. I tend
Australian trade balance highlights a light Asia-Pacific calendar. Eyes on Korea Read More »
We have to use different scenarios after Iran attacks Baseline scenario is that it will be a short conflict Other scenario is that it will be more protracted Market reaction has been orderly ECB should change its policy stance if inflation expectations change as a result of the Iran war To look out for any
ECB’s de Guindos: Baseline scenario is that US-Iran will be a short conflict Read More »
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It’s the same story as yesterday as the expiries here also intersect at the same level. The dollar is once again stronger today as markets are feeling a bit more
FX option expiries for 5 March 10am New York cut Read More »
The NZD/USD is trending higher today, but the recovery is now facing its most significant test of the week. The pair is currently squeezing into a dense pocket of overhead resistance that will determine if this move has “legs” or if it is simply a dead-cat bounce. The Topside Hurdle: 0.5927 – 0.5940 The Kiwi
NZDUSD higher on the day and testing topside resistance targets Read More »
Conflict may have upward effect on inflation and downward effect on growth The proportion of which will depend on the length of the situation I do not see reason today why the ECB should raise interest rates I would say the fact that he has to mention it already shows how the conversation has shifted.
ECB policymaker Villeroy: I do not see reason today why we should raise interest rates Read More »
The major indices close higher for the second of three days this week. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which rose by 1.29%. The S&P index rose by 0.78%, and the Dow Industrial Average rose 0.49%. With the week now half over, the S&P index is down -0.14%, the NASDAQ index is up
Major US stock indices close higher as the market discounts the geopolitical risks Read More »
The price of crude oil has moved higher and moves back above $76. Iran’s strikes will intensify and expand in coming days Thousands of Iraqi Kurds have launched a ground offensive in Iran Iran says it hit a US warship with missiles 600 km away. It is reported that the missile 7000 km range and
Crude oil catching a bid. Price moves back toward $76 Read More »
It’s only been a little over three trading days but markets are evidently fearful of inflation pressures returning to major economies. Even if not fully reflected in central bank pricing, in which the needle has definitely moved, then at least take caution from the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields are up 16 bps since the
No inflation shock to come from US-Iran conflict – Danske Read More »
Major US stock indices close higher as the market discounts the geopolitical risks Bitcoin blasts through Key resistance. 38.2% retracement at $74,400 in sight Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity increased at a slight/ moderate pace European indices rebound after two days of sharp declines White House submits nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair
Will enhance the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy To optimise the structure of fiscal expenditure Will keep liquidity ample, improve sustainability of government finances To keep exchange rate basically stable, enhance flexibility of the yuan Will release the full potential of services consumption Will boost effective investment, balance attraction of foreign investment To greatly
China further outlines five-year plan, says to implement more proactive macro policies Read More »
Well, they’re not going off into the wild in calling for triple-digit oil prices at least. The firm is offering a bit more of a measured take to start with as they see “mixed signals” from the US-Iran conflict. That especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz, which is what market players are heavily
Goldman Sachs bumps up oil price forecast amid Middle East conflict Read More »
This was out a few hours ago but it’s important context in why oil prices are back near the post-war highs. Previously on Wednesday, a report said that Iran had reached out the US about negotiations. They were Axios reports saying that Iranians had sent messages over the last few days but that the US
Iran denies that messages were sent to the US about negotiations Read More »
Chinese stocks are up more than 1% today after the National People’s Congress revealed growth targets and some government priorities but now we’re getting some details. Chinese consumer stocks are laggards so far, up around 0.5% but we’re getting some notable headlines from the state planner now: Will improve the local tax system Will better
China floats some tax changes Read More »
China five-year plan calls for more proactive fiscal policy China to continue ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy Iran denies that messages were sent to the US about negotiations China floats some tax changes A federal trade-court judge ordered a swift repayment of tariffs. Why it matters Australian January goods trade balance +2.631B vs +3.90B expected Markets:
We are going to get a bounce in Asian stock markets today but the question is: How high. Nikkei futures are trading at 56,310 versus the close yesterday of 54,245 in the cash market. That’s a healthy 3.8% rally following a 3.6% decline yesterday. I should warn that cash prices don’t always follow futures and
Nikkei futures are up 3.8% Read More »
I can’t remember a time when the national stock market of a large, developed country traded like this. The Kospi rose 12% at the open today and is still up 11.4%. That’s after an 11% decline yesterday. If this were a time of covid or there was a war in the Korean peninsula, these moves
The Korean stock market is a meme stock Read More »
Bitcoin is back in the driver’s seat today, surging over 7.5%—its strongest single-day performance since early February and the second-largest gain since April 2025. The Technical Setup: The spark for this rally was a successful defense of the 100- and 200-hour moving averages yesterday. Once the price reclaimed the channel trendline near $67,400, the short-term
Bitcoin blasts through Key resistance. 38.2% retracement at $74,400 in sight Read More »
The AUD/USD experienced a volatile 24-hour cycle, driven by shifting equity market sentiment. After a sharp decline yesterday fueled by a sell-off in stocks, the “Aussie” found its footing. As risk appetite returned to the broader market, the pair staged a resilient rebound, setting up a critical technical confrontation today. A Significant moving average Breach
AUDUSD Analysis: Risk appetite returns as AUDUSD test major moving average cluster Read More »
After most of the major European indices stretch to new cycle Heisler record highs at the end of last week, the today selloff on the back of the Iranian war was harsh. Looking at the percentage changes from the highs to the low prices reach yesterday shows: German DAX -7.10% France’s CAC -6.43% UKs FTSE
European indices rebound after two days of sharp declines Read More »
The White House has submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair to the Senate Recall, it was announced on January 30, 2026 that Kevin Warsh would be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair. January 30, 2026: President Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell when Powell’s
White House submits nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair to Senate Read More »
Bitcoin Futures Breakout: Why Stubborn Traders Often Miss the Market’s Message There’s some short sellers on some social groups that keep on raising their stops and getting humiliated. But they can’t stop. They’re stubborn. They feel they must be strong. They chose ego over profit, and so be it. “It’s going down on the next
Stubborn bitcoin traders should watch the bigger picture Read More »
Prior 51.6 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.9 prelim Prior 51.3 The euro area economy is seen holding up well to start the year amid improved demand conditions. In particular, Germany looks to be one to help shoulder the economic burden after having been the main drag for a long time. The only troubling spot is
Eurozone February final services PMI 51.9 vs 51.8 prelim Read More »
The New York Times reports that despite publicly refusing to negotiate with President Trump over the ongoing U.S. and Israeli military campaign, Iran appears to have quietly explored the possibility of ending the conflict. According to officials familiar with the matter, operatives from Iran’s intelligence services reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. shortly after the
Iran operatives have secretly made offer to discuss terms for ending the war – NYT Read More »
The conflict in the Middle East continues to captivate markets and risk assets stumbled in trading yesterday. However, it could’ve been a lot worse but for a bounce in Wall Street after the much weaker open. The S&P 500 fell by 2.5% at one point in the opening hour before dip buyers stepped in to
Wall Street braces for more trouble up ahead Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has given back all the gains it made during the US–Iran-driven rally, which might seem surprising at first. But this kind of move isn’t unusual. In periods of intense risk aversion, gold often falls alongside equities as financial conditions tighten, and traders are forced to deleverage to meet margin calls. It looks
I kinda got tired of people arguing if bitoin and ethereum “must still go down” or not so I turned to orderFlow Intel by investingLive.com Crypto futures are starting the session with a constructive tone, though the picture remains more nuanced than a simple breakout story. Bitcoin is once again probing the upper edge of
Crypto futures update: Bitcoin tests range highs while Ether quietly builds strength Read More »
The USD/JPY is under renewed selling pressure today, emerging as one of the market’s biggest movers with a decline of nearly 0.50%. As broad USD strength wanes, the pair has retreated to a “make-or-break” technical junction that has defined the trend for nearly a month. The 100-Hour Moving Average: A Line in the Sand Since
USDJPY Price Analysis: Yen gains as pair tests critical 100-hour moving average Read More »
The USDCAD saw an attempted breakout earlier this week fueled by broad USD strength. Remarkably, this move higher occurred despite rising oil prices—which typically support the Loonie (lower USDCAD)—highlighting just how dominant the USD bid was. However, the rally hit a wall at the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 range (1.3757). Since then, momentum has
USDCAD Technical Outlook: Bulls lose grip as dip below MAs tilt bias to the downside Read More »
Prior estimate 52.3. Prior month 53.0 S&P global composite index 51.9 S&P Global services PMI final 51.7 versus 52.3 preliminary and 52.7 last Details from S&P Global Overall Activity Five of seven US sectors expanded in February, down from six sectors expanding in January. Consumer Services returned to contraction, weighing on the overall sector performance.
S&P Global composite PMI final 51.9 versus 52.3 preliminary Read More »
Prior 48.4 Composite PMI 49.9 vs 49.9 prelim Prior 49.1 No changes to the initial estimates as France’s services sector registers a second successive month of falling business activity. The survey highlights that panelists attributed the decline in output to a mix of harsh weather conditions, project delays and elevated uncertainty. In terms of price
France February final services PMI 49.6 vs 49.6 prelim Read More »
Prior month 53.8 ISM non- manufacturing PMI for February 56.1 versus 53.5 estimate. Nonmanufacturing business activity 59.9 vs 57.4 last month employment index 51.8 vs 50.3 last month. New orders 58.6 vs 53.1 last month. Prices paid 63.0 vs 66.6 last month. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 15 straight months, but February’s reading
ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February 56.1 versus 53.5 estimate Read More »
The USD/CHF rally has finally “come off the boil” following two days of aggressive, war-driven safe-haven buying. After a sharp breakout above its recent trading range and the 50% retracement level (0.78206), the pair surged toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.78726. However, that momentum stalled at a high of 0.7878, leading to a rotation back
USDCHF comes off the boil, but prior swing area support is stalling the fall. What next? Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is the Swiss CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.0% vs 0.1% prior. The data isn’t going to change anything for the SNB as policymakers have repeatedly stated that the bar for negative interest rates remains very high and they won’t move even if
What are the main events for today? Read More »
Crude oil 3.475M vs 2.305M estimate. Last 15.989M Distillates 0.429M vs -2.596M estimate. Last 0.252M Gasoline -1.704M vs 0.784M last week. Cushing 1.564M vs 0.881M last week. The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude +5.6M Distillates +0.5M. Gasoline -3.3 million Cushing +1.5 million Crude oil is trading lower on the day after failing to
EIA Crude oil inventories 3.475M vs 2.305M estimate Read More »
Prior 52.4 Final Composite PMI 53.2 vs 53.1 prelim Prior 52.1 Key findings: Employment falls again despite positive business expectations Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This is pretty robust growth from the service sector in February. The prospects for continued expansion are good,
Germany February final services PMI 53.5 vs 53.4 prelim Read More »
Monetary policy / interest rates We are probably about 1% away from neutral. Around 1% of rate cuts are appropriate this year. It is appropriate to cut rates at the March meeting. Would prefer continuing quarter-point cuts until the Fed reaches neutral, then reassess policy. The Fed should accommodate the AI-driven jobs transition with easier
Fed’s Miran: Too early to have firm use about impact from Iran conflict Read More »
Prior 54.0 Final Composite PMI 53.7 vs 53.9 prelim Prior 53.7 Key findings: Business activity rises for tenth month running in February New order growth loses momentum Job cuts persist amid pressure on margins from rising costs Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Business activity continued to pick up across
UK February final services PMI 53.9 vs 53.9 prelim Read More »
The USD is modestly lower at the start of the North American session, with the move representing a corrective pullback after two days of strong dollar gains. Those gains pushed EURUSD and GBPUSD to new lows for 2026, while USDJPY climbed to its highest level since January 22. For EURUSD, the pair has rebounded modestly
The USD is modestly lower to kickstart the US session. What next for the major pairs? Read More »
To be fair, this is a call that many analysts were priming since the weekend already. So, UBS is very much just piling on top of that in arguing for strong upside risks to the oil market if the Middle East conflict carries on for much longer. Of note, the firm is now raising its
Brent crude oil could exceed $100 if Strait of Hormuz closure persists – UBS Read More »
For some context: Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attack Even if Iran’s offensive threats appear to be diminishing, they are trying to make the most out of it by hitting back at where it hurts most. As a reminder, Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery is the largest oil refinery
Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery struck again by unknown projectile – report Read More »
Prior was +22K (revised to +11K) Goods +16K versus +1K last month Service +47K versus +21K last month Small business +60K vs 0K prior Medium businesses -7K vs +41K last month Large businesses +10K vs -18K last month Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% last month Wages for job changers 6.3% vs 6.4% last
US February ADP employment +63K vs +50K expected Read More »
Sector Overview: Technology and Consumer Sectors Outperform The US stock market today shows a mixed picture, with some clear sector standouts. The technology sector is seeing positive momentum, particularly in the semiconductor niche. Meanwhile, giants in consumer cyclical and electronics are helping uplift market sentiment. 📈 Technology & Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector shines today, with
Tech and consumer sectors lead gains: Insights into today’s market movements Read More »
Upcoming events traders and investors may want to look at, in a nutshell Several scheduled market events line up over the next few sessions. Oil inventories, Treasury auctions, and weekly options expiration often affect liquidity and short-term volatility. Energy markets could react quickly to the EIA petroleum report. Treasury bill auctions may nudge short-term yields
Prior quarter 0.9% revised to 1.1% Labor productivity rate for Q4 -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate Details of the report: Canadian business labour productivity fell -0.1% in Q4, as real GDP declined -0.2% while hours worked fell -0.1%. This follows a +1.1% productivity gain in Q3, when output rose while hours worked declined. The Q4 drop
Canada Labor Productivity rate for Q4 -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate Read More »
It’s been a steady ride up the escalator and now it’s straight down the escalator as the Korean Kospi has fallen as much as 10%. What a chart. Korea has been a red-hot market for the past year and was up 40% year-to-date at one point this year but this is a big drop. The
Korean stocks melt down Read More »
If anything, Wall Street can take heart in the bounce from yesterday even if dip buyers fell short of a stronger recovery momentum. As highlighted earlier, the fall yesterday looked to be teeing up a firmer break of the 100-day moving average for the S&P 500. However, we’re seeing some pushback now as US futures
US futures pare losses, turn positive on the day Read More »
Headlines: Iran operatives have secretly made offer to discuss terms for ending the war – NYT US futures pare losses, turn positive on the day Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery struck again by unknown projectile – report Switzerland February CPI +0.1% vs -0.1% y/y expected Eurozone January PPI +0.7% vs +0.2% m/m expected Eurozone February
investingLive European markets wrap: A bit of a breather as dollar, oil prices cool Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied across the board on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and Monday’s ISM Manufacturing
Indian Rupee tumbles to a new record low amid the US-Iran war. What’s next? Read More »
Prior 52.9 Composite PMI 52.1 vs 51.4 prior Key findings: Weaker rise in new business volumes, despite fresh increase in exports Job creation hits seven-month high as outlook brightens Inflationary pressures increase Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Overall, the latest PMI figures paint an encouraging
Italy February services PMI 52.3 vs 52.0 expected Read More »
The price of crude oil has moved lower trading to $72.39. That was just below the 38.2% of the move up from the low last week at $72.49. Staying below that level would open the door to more downside momentum. US stocks are edging higher as well. The NASDAQ index is trading at to a
Trump: DFC to provide political risk insurance and guarantees to all Maritime Trade Read More »
The main purpose of the meeting is to assess the implications of the US-Iran conflict, with Lescure revealing that he had already spoken to US Treasury secretary Bessent and other counterparts. After which, all parties agreed on the necessity of convening next week to “fully understand” the situation in the Middle East. I wouldn’t expect
G7 finance ministers and central bankers to meet early next week Read More »
China official manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs 49.1 expected Japan finance minister steps in with some added verbal intervention on the yen Australian Q4 GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% expected New Zealand Q4 terms of trade +3.7% q/q vs -0.7% expected Markets: Korean Kospi down 9.1% Nikkei 225 down 3.9% Gold up $76 to $5163 US 10-year
investingLive Asia-pacific market news wrap: Korean stock market crushed Read More »
Prior -0.3% That’s a notable bump to start the year and even if you exclude energy prices (+1.3%) from the equation, euro area producer prices were still up 0.6% in January. The breakdown shows increases across the board in the likes of intermediate goods (+1.0%), capital goods (+0.6%), and durable consumer goods (+0.8%). That is
Eurozone January PPI +0.7% vs +0.2% m/m expected Read More »
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The expiries might just help to keep price action more restricted in the session ahead but as is the case in the days before, expect the impact to be rather
FX option expiries for 4 March 10am New York cut Read More »
Japanese stocks are under pressure, opening 2.3% lower as they follow the lead of global stocks. It’s been a one-way trade lower since the Iran war in large part due to the inflationary spike in oil and LNG prices. Japan is more vulnerable than just about any country to oil and gas import prices and
Nikkei opens 2.3% lower Read More »
Prior +0.1% Core CPI +0.4% y/y Prior +0.5% Headline annual inflation remains unchanged and continues to border on deflation territory. The bad news for the SNB is that core annual inflation is seen trickling lower to 0.4%. For some context, core annual inflation was still hovering at 0.9% in February 2025. It’s a slow descend
Switzerland February CPI +0.1% vs -0.1% y/y expected Read More »
Prior was 49.3 Non-manufacturing 49.5 vs 49.4 prior Composite 49.5 vs 49.8 prior The malaise in the Chinese economy continues. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
China official manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs 49.1 expected Read More »
WTI crude oil came close to hitting $78 yesterday before falling back after Trump gave his assurance, at least financially, on passage through the Strait of Hormuz here. But even so, it seems that no company is willing to take on that promise and risk getting their tankers shot down by the IRGC. Again, the
Oil prices resume climb despite Trump’s assurance on Strait of Hormuz Read More »
Wages need to increase significantly for Japan to sustainably, stably achieve BOJ price target Mechanism in which wages, prices rise in tandem needs to become embedded in the economy What is most important in raising real wages is to increase labour productivity It is hard to directly influence real wages with monetary policy It is
BOJ governor Ueda says wage increases much needed to get inflation to price target Read More »
Prior 53.5 The headline estimate misses on expectations but still reaffirms an expansion in Spain’s services sector to start the year. That being said, the rate of growth is the weakest since June last year. That amid reports of softer demand and cooler market conditions. Adding to that, employment also rose to a lesser degree,
Spain February services PMI 51.9 vs 52.8 expected Read More »
Discover how to handle drawdowns in bear markets long enough for you to see through profits during bull markets The post How To Handle Drawdowns appeared first on TradingwithRayner.
How To Handle Drawdowns Read More »
The best-case scenario in this war (for markets at least) is that Iran quickly folds. Here are some estimates about how many missiles Iran has launched each day of this campaign. Day 1 (Feb 28) — ~350 Ballistic Missiles: Open-source intelligence confirms that on the first day alone, Iran fired at least 247 ballistic missiles
Here is the good news on the Iran war Read More »
China willing to work with the US to promote communication on all levels Willing to maintain exchanges with the US Congress Hopes that the US Congress views China in an objective manner China has its own principles and red lines As always, will resolutely defend its sovereignty, security, and development interests Ties with the US
China’s top legislature says willing to work with the US but will hold its ‘red lines’ Read More »
Katayama says that: It would be desirable for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals We are watching market developments closely, prepared to take various measures if needed Intervention could be included in various measures as agreed under US-Japan joint statement Will keep an eye on any increase in bond yields The comments above
Japan finance minister steps in with some added verbal intervention on the yen Read More »
Prior was -2.1% Import prices vs +0.8% expected Prior import prices +0.5% Export prices vs +0.5% expected Prior export prices -1.6% New Zealand’s terms of trade measure the ratio of the country’s export prices to its import prices, serving as a key indicator of the nation’s purchasing power in international markets. This metric is particularly
New Zealand Q4 terms of trade +3.7% q/q vs -0.7% expected Read More »
The EURUSD extended its downside momentum, accelerating away from the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.1694 and 1.1664. That rejection of key longer-term levels reinforced the bearish bias and opened the door for a deeper move lower. Sellers pushed the pair through the 2026 low at 1.1576, triggering additional downside pressure. The decline did
EURUSD rebounding, but buyers have more to prove Read More »
Prior quarter was +0.4% Real GDP y/y +2.6% vs +2.2% expected Prior y/y GDP was +2.1% Final consumption expenditure +0.5% vs +0.6% prior GDP chain price index +1.4% vs +0.8% prior Gross fixed capital expenditure +0.7% vs +3.0% prior This is a good report, though there has been little reaction from AUD. Australia just dropped
Australian Q4 GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% expected Read More »
Tuesday was a bruising day for gold but let’s try to keep it in perspective. It was caught up in a ‘sell everything’ deleveraging market as all the weak hands regarding the Iran war got shaken out. In all likelihood, this will go just as the US expects, with a 4-5 week bombing campaign that’s
The Asian gold bid returns. What to look for Read More »
The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off their session lows after buyers stepped in during the latter part of trading. Concerns about the Iranian war, sharply higher oil prices and yields initially pushed the indices lower, but a reversal in the US session helped to retrace some of
S&P and NASDAQ index close down near 1% Read More »
The USDCHF moved higher earlier in the day, breaking above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 0.78208. That break helped ignite additional buying momentum, pushing the pair up toward — and briefly through — the 61.8% retracement level at 0.78726. The rally ultimately stalled after reaching a high of 0.7878. However, as
USDCHF retraces some of the gains today and settles near the 50% midpoint of 2026 range Read More »
S&P and NASDAQ index close down near 1% Trump: DFC to provide political risk insurance and guarantees to all Maritime Trade Pres. Trump speaking from the White House: Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first Feds Kashkari: Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact ECB’s Kazaks: Current rates are appropriate based on what
Oil prices have pulled back from session highs after reports that the US may provide military protection for vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier fears that tankers would be unable to offload cargo — potentially filling storage capacity and forcing production cuts — helped fuel a sharp rally in crude. WTI climbed to
US could provide military protection to ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz Read More »
We are now into Day 2 of fully open trading since the war in Iran began, and the tone remains decisively risk-off. US equities are under heavy pressure: Nasdaq: -474 points S&P 500: -103 points Dow: -719 points At the same time, classic defensive flows are in play: Crude oil +6.3% 10-year yield +3.4 bps
What now? A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to kickstart the NA session Read More »
We’re talking about some very big trade deals. We’re doing very well. Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first. Based on the way the talks were going. If anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand. Iran attacking countries that had nothing to do with what’s going on. Iran hitting only civilian places. Iran no
Pres. Trump speaking from the White House: Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first Read More »
When I survey the scene in markets after one day of post-Iran war trading, there isn’t much surprising given the news. Naturally, oil rallied and the 8% climb is about what I would have expected given the broad attack and retaliation. A critical detail shortly after the war yesterday was Trump touting a 4-5 week
After the first day of trading the Iran war, bonds are the big surprise Read More »
ECB’s Kazaks: Current rates are appropriate based on what I am seeing. There is no need to rush a hike. There are opposing forces coming from Iran shock and it depends on which one is a stronger. February inflation readings will keep us in cautious mode. The overall tone of the Kazaks comments are neutral
ECB’s Kazaks: Current rates are appropriate based on what I am seeing Read More »
Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation. Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact. Elevated headline inflation bears watching given recent inflation path. Had thought monetary policy was in a good place. Fed need to see how big and longer-range shock will be. Uncertainty about tariff outlook has increased. Doesn’t think
Feds Kashkari: Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact Read More »
If inflation ebbs, “further reductions” in policy rate target “eventually” warranted Central bank’s rate policy stance currently “well positioned” Eventual rate cuts aimed at keeping policy from being too restrictive Expects the unemployment rate to edge down this year and next Sees 2.5% GDP growth in 2026 on array of supporting factors Expects inflation to
Fed’s Williams: If inflation ebbs, further reduction in policy rate would be warranted Read More »
While gold traditionally serves as a “flight-to-safety” asset during crises, the current price action is defying that playbook. After failing to clear key overhead resistance yesterday at the topside channel trendline (see video from yesterday), a breakdown at the $5,240–$5,250 confluence zone triggered significant selling momentum. This bearish move has systematically cleared several critical support
Gold Technicals: In a surprise move, gold is racing to the downside. What next? Read More »
Prior was 2.6% Jobs-to-applicants ratio 1.18 vs 1.19 expected Prior ratio 1.19 Japan’s unemployment rate held at 2.6% for four consecutive months through December, up from 2.4% in June and a cycle low of 2.2% in mid-2024. While 2.6% remains low by international standards, the gradual upward drift represents a notable shift in a labour
Japan January unemployment rate 2.7% vs 2.6% prior Read More »
The escalating blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered significant supply concerns, sending crude oil prices on a vertical tear. Prices have surged over 8.5% in today’s session, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-2025 as the market tests the critical $77.57 resistance zone. While sellers have initially defended this level, a clean break above
Crude oil is a surging. What needs to happen to give the sellers control? Read More »
The S&P and NASDAQ indices are under pressure, with volatile two-way price action dominating the session. Sellers have regained control intraday, pushing both indices lower and forcing traders to reassess key technical levels. In the video above, I break down what the move to the downside means from a technical perspective, highlighting the support zones
The USD/CAD is currently locked in a tug-of-war as technical support meets a sharp fundamental shift in energy markets. While broad US Dollar strength provided an early lift, the pair has encountered a significant “ceiling” that remains unbroken. The Fundamental Context: Oil vs. Greenback The primary catalyst for the recent reversal is a 7.3% surge
The impact of the Iran conflict currently would be transmitted through oil prices, financial market conditions, and asset prices. The market reaction to the Iran conflict has been muted so far. Increased uncertainty may also have an impact. While movements in oil prices do not fundamentally shift the U.S. economy as they did 50 years
Feds Williams: Long-term inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable Read More »
AI will change productivity growth, demand for labor. Only seen the beginning of how AI will change the economy. Higher productivity should mean higher real earnings over time. Size of AI impact is the question and is still to be determined. Do not believe AI will shift to structural unemployment, new technologies create more jobs
More from Feds Williams: AI will change productivity growth, demand for labor Read More »
Sector overview The US stock market today paints a picture of volatility, with a pronounced downturn in the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. The semiconductor industry has taken a significant hit, while the energy sector shows resilience amidst widespread selling. 📉 Semiconductor Struggles: The semiconductor industry is experiencing sharp declines, with Micron Technology (MU) sinking
Tech sector turbulence: Semiconductors dive, while energy stocks resist market slump Read More »
S&P and NASDAQ indices erase war declines and close higher on the day Reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices back higher Trump; US continues to carry out large scale combat operations in Iran Gold’s “Blow-off Top”: Geopolitical Spike Meets Technical Resistance ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 52.4 versus 51.8
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq opened lower yesterday after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack over the weekend against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and many other regime officials. Iran responded with broad attacks against Israel and US bases in
Nasdaq stays under pressure amid lower growth and higher inflation fears on US-Iran war Read More »
No room to be complacent on inflation Inflation is hot, demand is outpacing supply No mention of Iran conflict in prepared remarks I hear optimism from contacts about the year ahead; I share it Growth trajectory remains strong, helped by fiscal policy Labor market is in balance Services inflation strong and faster than consistent with
Feds Schmid: No room to be complacent on inflation Read More »
The precious metal tends to move in tandem with gold prices when it comes to such situations but after the volatile selling at the end of January, the landscape has changed quite a lot. Despite the recovery momentum in recent weeks and also at the start of this week, the volatility bouts are still running
Silver slammed back down as bids from US-Iran conflict fade Read More »
Nasdaq stays under pressure amid lower growth and higher inflation fears on US-Iran war Inflation fears reemerge as markets digest higher energy prices from US-Iran conflict Will Iran really manage to fully block the Strait of Hormuz? EURUSD falls back to January lows despite ECB rate hike bets as US Dollar surges Eurozone February preliminary
investingLive European FX news wrap: Day 4 of US-Iran war keeps markets in risk-off Read More »
Oil prices are surging again today with WTI crude now bordering on 5% gains near $74.65 on the day. The resurgence of the petrodollar trade is one argument as to why the dollar is managing to come out on top this week, after having been shunned as a safe haven asset in previous occasions since
Dollar continues to go from strength to strength to start the week Read More »
On Monday evening, a commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed” and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through would be attacked. As expected, on Tuesday oil, gas, and gold prices all jumped higher, while shipping traffic in the region only worsened. Yet there’s still no sign
Will Iran really manage to fully block the Strait of Hormuz? Read More »
French economic exposure to Mideast tensions are limited The ECB won’t decide on interest rates only on the basis of energy prices It would be a mistake to predict rate move in a hurry European gas prices have surged on Monday after Qatar announced it was halting LNG production following an Iranian drone attack. Oil
ECB’s Villeroy: It would be a mistake to predict rate move in a hurry Read More »
The sources mentioned that the market volatility triggered by the US-Iran conflict has now raised the odds of the BOJ holding off on raising interest rates later this month. Adding that the only real factor that could see policymakers lean towards a rate hike would be to address the sharp decline in the Japanese yen
BOJ might have to put off March rate hike amid US-Iran conflict – report Read More »
The reaction in the bond market to the US-Iran conflict is something that should warrant more attention. While traders are focused on the risk side of things and safety flows, it’d be easy to miss that Treasury yields have actually gone up since the end of last week. 10-year yields are up another 5 bps
Inflation fears reemerge as markets digest higher energy prices from US-Iran conflict Read More »
The AUD/USD is staging a resilient intraday recovery, climbing back toward session highs as the initial wave of market fear dissipates. The primary catalyst is a broad rebound in U.S. equities, with all three major indices now trading in positive territory. The Macro Backdrop: Stocks Lead the Way As the “risk-on” sentiment returns, the Australian
AUDUSD Technical Update: Bears Falter as Risk Appetite Returns Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied across the board yesterday on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and yesterday’s ISM
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the Eurozone Flash CPI. The Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.7% vs 1.7% prior, while the Core Y/Y is seen at 2.2% vs 2.2% prior. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB as central banks are trying to assess the
What are the main events for today? Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied across the board yesterday on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and yesterday’s ISM
EURUSD falls back to January lows despite ECB rate hike bets as US Dollar surges Read More »
It’s looking rough out there at the open again as equities are being hammered lower. Investors are seeking shelter amid the US-Iran conflict and the favoured play right now looks to be the dollar. The greenback is once again higher across the board with European currencies in particular struggling. In Europe, natural gas prices are
Another rough day beckons for major indices in Europe Read More »
Expected was +5.0% (some at 5.5%) Prior was -14.9% Private house approvals +1.1% vs +0.4% prior Building approvals +8.7% y/y vs +13.3% prior This is a sharp two-month drop in construction activity but think of it more as a normalization. Australian dwelling approvals were characterised by significant monthly volatility through 2025, driven almost entirely by
Australian January building approvals -7.2% m/m vs +5.0% expected Read More »
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 157.00 level. However, the expiries don’t tie to any technical significance and may not have too much impact considering prevailing trading sentiment in broader markets. As traders digest the US-Iran conflict and
FX option expiries for 3 March 10am New York cut Read More »
There was a bit of profit-taking at the onset yesterday but given time to digest the Middle East situation, we’re starting to see oil prices surge higher again today. The jump on the day now sees prices move back up to contest the highs from the opening gap higher yesterday. WTI crude oil is now
Oil prices surge higher, looks to eclipse the opening gap up from yesterday Read More »
The firm argues that but for plausible intervention by the SNB yesterday, the Swiss franc would’ve recorded better gains in reaction to the US-Iran conflict thus far. The key line in the sand that they’re highlighting is the obvious one at 0.90 for EUR/CHF. That is one that has become quite evident after the break
SNB might have stepped in yesterday to limit Swiss franc advance – Credit Agricole Read More »
The latest update from the US Central Command: “US forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime.” At first read, this should
US Central Command confirms strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites Read More »
Board uncertain if financial conditions sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to midpoint of target in reasonable timeframe Range of indicators tell us that labour market conditions are tight Economic data since Feb rate hike support that move Underlying demand in economy further from supply potential than we had assessed Large part of unexpected increase in
RBC’s Bullock: An oil supply shock could add to inflation pressures Read More »
With all that is happening in the Middle East, let’s not forget that there is also an ongoing trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The Supreme Court shooting down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs has changed the landscape here dramatically. And that is making for a bit of an awkward setting ahead
New Zealand building consents rose 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, clawing back some of December’s 4.5% decline. The monthly number is fine but the real story here is in the annual figures — and for the first time in a while, there’s something constructive to talk about. In the year ended January
New Zealand January building consents +1.9% vs -4.6% prior Read More »
Prolonged conflict could lead to a “substantial spike” in inflation At the same time, it could also cause a “sharp drop in output” in the euro area Directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation especially in the near-term The magnitude of the shock heavily depends on “the breadth and duration of
ECB chief economist Lane warns of inflation spike from US-Iran conflict Read More »
Crude oil prices have pushed back above the $72.50 level, with WTI now trading roughly 7.8% higher on the day, as geopolitical risk continues to dominate price action. The latest advance follows a corrective pullback earlier in the North American session that saw prices dip toward the $70 area before buyers stepped back in and
Reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices back higher Read More »
Gold jumped at the weekly open due to uncertainty around the Iran war but that quickly gave way to profit taking and it sagged down to $5300. Then a second and third wave of bids arrived in Europe and the US leading to a session high of $5419 before selling into the US close and
Gold and silver find renewed bids in Asia but sellers quickly arrive Read More »
It’s been a challenge for traders and investors seeking a ‘back to risk-on sentiment’ vibe with all the action around. The market landscape remains highly sensitive to headlines, as evidenced by reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz which once again sent oil prices climbing. This volatility initially pressured equities, yet the S&P and
Bitcoin analysis today shows breakout pauses near 69K as short-term pressure builds Read More »
The market is trying to suss out what the plan is for Iran. Yesterday there was an interview with John Bolton that emphasized that Trump is impulsive and likes to improvise. Trump himself also outlined a 4-5 week timeline, which suggests there is a plan. What’s less clear are the goals of the mission, which
Trump says he doesn’t think boots on the ground will be necessary in Iran Read More »
The broader S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices closed higher on the day after staging an impressive rebound from sharp losses seen shortly after the open. Early selling pressure faded as buyers stepped back in, allowing equities to recover into the close. The S&P 500 fell as much as 72 points at session lows before reversing
S&P and NASDAQ indices erase war declines and close higher on the day Read More »
The USD/CAD has undergone a decisive shift during the North American session. As the recent surge in oil prices began to lose steam, the pair found the momentum needed to snap higher, fundamentally altering the short-term technical landscape. The Bullish Breakout: Reclaiming the Moving Averages The initial spark for this move was a successful breach
The USD/JPY bulls made a massive power play in today’s session, but the momentum has hit a significant wall. While the morning was defined by aggressive buying, the failure to sustain the breakout has handed the “short-term steering wheel” back to the sellers. The Rise: Clearing the 100-Hour MA and Last Week’s High The day
USDJPY Technicals: Buyers had their shot. They missed. Read More »
Choosing a forex broker can be confusing. One site advertises “low spreads,” another emphasises “fast execution,” and a third promotes a bonus while hiding real costs in the fine print. Most traders end up doing the same thing: opening 10 tabs, taking notes, and still feeling unsure. That’s why here at investingLive, we have launched
Best Forex Brokers Comparison 2026: Compare Brokers Side by Side Read More »
The EUR/USD experienced a sharp sell-off today, cascading from a high near the converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages (1.1786) down to a session low of 1.1671. While fundamental drivers sparked the volatility, the price action is currently being defined by a high-stakes tug-of-war between two major technical levels. The Support Zone: 200-Day Moving Average
EURUSD Technical Analysis: The Battle of the MAs Read More »
Iran refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons Regime ballistic missile program was growing rapidly Would have soon had missiles capable of reaching America Ensuring they cannot obtain nuclear weapon Ensuring cannot fund or direct armies outside their borders We are ahead of our time projections An Iran with nuclear weapons would be intolerable
Trump; US continues to carry out large scale combat operations in Iran Read More »
Prior month 52.6 ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.8 estimate Prices paid 70.5 versus 60.0 estimate. Last month 59.0. Highest level since June 2022 Employment 48.8 versus 48.1 last month New orders 55.8 versus 57.1 last month. Weakest since December 2025 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 52.4 versus 51.8 estimate Read More »
Even when markets are volatile and there is a lot of uncertainty, we would still make necessary decision At times, we might need to shift policy precisely because markets are volatile It’s not as if we would hold off on changing policy just because markets are volatile Appropriate to keep monetary conditions accommodative and gradually
BOJ policymaker Himino: We’d still make necessary decision even if markets are volatile Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil opened with a big positive gap today after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack over the weekend against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and many other regime officials. Iran responded with broad attacks against Israel
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ initially buckled under the weight of escalating tensions in Iran, but the “first move” once again proved to be an overreaction. After a steep premarket slide, buyers stepped in during early U.S. trading, sparking a sharp recovery and stabilizing risk sentiment. The NASDAQ’s intraday journey was particularly telling: after plunging
Market Resilience: Indices Bounce Off Key Technical Floors Read More »
The escalation of the conflict in Iran sent gold prices on a vertical trajectory, with the metal surging $140.71 to hit a session high of $5,419.32. However, the rally proved short-lived. Since that peak, the market has undergone a violent reversal, erasing all gains to trade slightly into the red (down ~$18.00 from the previous
Gold’s “Blow-off Top”: Geopolitical Spike Meets Technical Resistance Read More »
Sector Overview: Technology Decline and Financial Fluctuations The US stock market is witnessing a significant downturn in the technology sector today, with key players such as Microsoft (MSFT) barely breaking even at +0.07% and Oracle (ORCL) dropping by 2.21%. Notably, semiconductor giants like Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron (MU) are down 3.43% and 3.53% respectively, indicating
Technology tumbles as financials waver: Today’s market insights Read More »
Prior +0.3% UK house prices were seen steady, growing slightly again in February. That brings the average price of a dwelling in the UK to £273,176. The annual house price growth keeps unchanged as in January at +1.0%. Nationwide notes that: “This reinforces the view of a modest recovery after a dip at the end
UK February Nationwide house prices +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected Read More »
The USD is higher vs the major currencies as the market digests the war in Iran. A snapshot shows: Swiss Franc (CHF): +1.08% Euro (EUR): +0.77% New Zealand Dollar (NZD): +0.77% Japanese Yen (JPY): +0.72% British Pound (GBP): +0.58% Australian Dollar (AUD): +0.55% Canadian Dollar (CAD): +0.12% In the video above, I take a technical
The USD is higher to kickstart the NA session. What are the technicals telling traders? Read More »
It looks like we’re finally getting a feel of where the SNB wants to draw the line next in EUR/CHF. This has been a key debate since the start of the year and especially more so after the pair fell below the previous line in the sand around 0.9200. That led to the hot question
Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier Read More »
Central Banker Comments Bank of Canada — Kozicki Key Messages Monetary policy may need tightening even during economic weakness. Supply-side developments are increasingly important in fighting inflation. Policy Bias: Hawkish bias — willingness to prioritize inflation control even if growth softens. European Central Bank (ECB) Kocher Key Messages ECB should be ready to move rates
What are the central bankers talking about as war rages Read More »
Since last year, the dollar hasn’t been the favoured haven currency in most negative risk events. In fact, it’s also not the yen but instead the franc took over the mantle. That amid the own problems brought about by the US administration and Tokyo’s policy directive change after Takaichi took over as prime minister. But
Dollar holds firmer across the board as markets digest US-Iran conflict Read More »
Some of you have already seen this bull flag in oil in my previous oil technical analysis article, well before the war started over the weekend. But here it is again with a detailed technical explanation. Remember, there is no “one single way” to do “technical analysis”. I use broad perspectives such as the ones
This Technical Map Shows Oil’s Technical Analysis Before and After the War Read More »
Real interest rates still significantly negative; policy remains accommodative following December’s hike to 0.75% Natural rate of interest estimated between -1% and +0.5%, wide range makes precise policy calibration difficult Food price inflation primarily supply-side shock, not demand driven; expects deceleration below 2% in H1 2026 US economy resilience surprised to upside; AI-related investment spillover
BOJ’s Himino: GDP is tracking okay Read More »
The early stages of the US-Iran conflict is seeing the US dollar and the Swiss franc among the more favoured currencies so far today. The Japanese yen typically has safen haven traits but has lost a lot of that allure in recent months. And now with oil prices swinging higher, that’s compounding woes as energy
USD/JPY hits three-week high, clips the 157.00 mark Read More »
Prior month 51.2 revise from 52.4 S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.6 versus 51.2 expected Chris Williamson (S&P Global Market Intelligence) signaled that US manufacturing momentum softened in February, reflecting slower demand, tariff uncertainty, and weather disruptions. While inflation pressures are easing and optimism has improved somewhat, businesses remain cautious on hiring and investment amid ongoing
S&P Global manufacturing PMI for February 51.7 versus 52.0 estimate Read More »
Comments from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth U.S. will conclude operations under “America First” conditions. Iran was building a shield for nuclear ambition This is not an endless war. Iran operation will include casualties. Operation is not directed at Iraq and is not an endless war. U.S. mission in Iran is to destroy Iran’s missiles,
US Sec of War Hegseth: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and takes guts to enforce that Read More »
In view of the current international situation, we are more prepared to intervene in currency markets We are ready to intervene in the FX market to dampen any rapid, excessive appreciation of the franc More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
We are more prepared to intervene in FX market in view of international situation – SNB Read More »
Crypto futures are navigating a heavy geopolitical backdrop, but the price response so far has been more controlled than many would have expected after an intense weekend. Rather than a straight-line liquidation, both Bitcoin and Ether are showing two-way trade with clear areas where participation has concentrated and where follow-through has repeatedly stalled. This write-up
Crypto technical analysis today Read More »
Monday begins with the release of manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. On Tuesday, the euro area will publish flash estimates for CPI y/y and core CPI y/y, while in the U.K., attention will focus on the annual budget release. Wednesday brings GDP q/q data from Australia and the CPI
Market outlook for the week of 2nd-6th March Read More »
The European Commission is said to have sent an email to EU governments, in noting that it sees no immediate impact on the bloc’s security of oil supply from the situation in the Middle East. That according to Reuters, who has glanced over the email details with it stating that: “At this stage, we do
There is just one to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. But on a day like this, the impact of any larger option expiries should be negated. This one keeps near to the current spot price but I would say that it
FX option expiries for 2 March 10am New York cut Read More »
There’s plenty to digest as we get the new week/month underway in trading today. The main story is that the US, alongside Israel, finally decided to launch military attacks against Iran. Reports are saying that the strikes were supposed to be carried out last week but were delayed due to operational and intelligence reasons. Nonetheless,
All eyes stay on the Middle East to start the week Read More »
Prior 49.2 That’s a slight improvement to the January estimate, as production levels were seen broadly stable in February. That being said, the order books declined for a third straight month albeit at a slower rate at least. On the price front, Spanish manufacturers saw another steep rise in input prices with the rate of
Spain February manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 50.1 expected Read More »
Prior was 49.1 Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Germany February final manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs 50.7 prelim Read More »
Oil futures opened for the week in what will surely be the most-closely followed market today and for the next few weeks. WTI crude jumped 11% to $74.57 ($75.33 was the high print). Brent is trading up about 8% after briefly touching $82.37. It’s taken only seconds for some selling to kick in. The war
Oil futures open: WTI jumps 11% to $74.57 Read More »
Crude oil futures opened the new week with a sharp gap higher, reflecting a renewed geopolitical risk premium following weekend developments in the Middle East. Early trade has been volatile and two‑sided, with price discovery stretching across a wide intraday range (roughly $69.20 to $75.33 on the session data shown), before settling back into the
Crude oil gaps higher on weekend risk premium Read More »
Things are just getting messier by the hour. QatarEnergy is the state-owned integrated energy company of Qatar. And they have just announced a stop to its LNG production and associated products. That follows attacks on its operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. For some context, Qatar ranks as among the
QatarEnergy halts LNG production after military attacks on its facilities Read More »
Headlines: Gold prices surge as US-Iran conflict triggers a flight to safety: Record highs in sight This Technical Map Shows Oil’s Technical Analysis Before and After the War Dollar holds firmer across the board as markets digest US-Iran conflict Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier We are more prepared to intervene in FX market
investingLive European markets wrap: Oil stays bid, dollar firms on US-Iran conflict Read More »
A Reuters source is reporting that Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, which is the largest oil refinery in the Middle East, was hit by a drone attack and forced to shut down as a precautionary measure. The source did note that the “situation is under control” though. However, the strike continues to highlight the kind
Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery forced to shut down after reported drone attack Read More »
Prior 51.2 The final estimate is a slight nudge up to the initial reading, so it at least sees back-to-back months of increase in French manufacturing activity at the start of 2026. That being said, the February reading is rather marginal as production expanded in the absence of new order growth. On the price front,
France February final manufacturing PMI 50.1 vs 49.9 prelim Read More »
I just finished writing up an interview with former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton and he talked about how Trump “doesn’t do strategic thinking” and his latest comments to the New York Times underscore that. “The president offered a variety of often inconsistent visions of how a new government could take shape after the
Trump floats lifting sanctions against a new Iranian regime Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold started to rally steadily on Friday after we got various reports of evacuations that indicated a possible strike to follow over the weekend. Sure enough, the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader
Gold prices surge as US-Iran conflict triggers a flight to safety: Record highs in sight Read More »
PEC+ agreed a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day on Sunday. The initial expectations were for no change but last week a leak said they were considering an additional 137K bpd. Ultimately, they decided on even more — likely due to the US strikes on Iran. The crude won’t be produced until
OPEC+ hiked oil production by 206,000 bpd in Sunday’s meeting Read More »
All eyes are on Iran at the moment but let’s change gears for a moment and have a look at the US earnings calendar. The last few weeks have been dominated by mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure, this week provides the a read-through on the global consumer. We have major discount retailers, big-box tech stores,
US earnings week ahead: The state of the consumer and the next wave of AI networking Read More »
Prior +0.1%; revised to +1.2% The drop here needs to be put into context a little more, as it comes after a major bump up in the December 2025 retail sales jump. That figure was seen revised from +0.1% to +1.2% on the month. So, the miss on estimates in the headline isn’t as bad
Germany January retail sales -0.9% vs -0.2% m/m expected Read More »
Prior 49.5 Germany’s improvement is the main story driving the recovery in the euro area manufacturing sector to start the new year. Hopes of a sustained return to growth is making for a more optimistic picture at the moment. The headline reading is a 44-month high with the manufacturing output index also moving up to
Eurozone February final manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.8 prelim Read More »
Prior 48.1 Key findings: Fresh growth in output and new orders, ending two-month run of decline Brightest 12-month outlook in just over five years Intensification of cost and charge inflation Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “In February, we saw tentative signs of improvement in Italy’s
Italy February manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs 49.5 expected Read More »
Prior 48.8 Hopes for a recovery in the Swiss industry were dashed with this being another contractionary reading in February. This marks a 38th straight month that Switzerland’s manufacturing sector recorded below the 50-point growth threshold. Of note, production slumped back lower with new orders also softening once again. The details: It reaffirms that the
Switzerland February manufacturing PMI 47.4 vs 50.0 expected Read More »
Prior 51.8 Key findings: New export orders rise at quickest pace in four and-a-half years Business sentiment stays close to January’s recent high Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing has made an encouraging start to 2026. Output rose at the quickest pace in 17 months during February, building on a
UK February final manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 52.0 prelim Read More »
BOJ’s Himino: GDP is tracking okay Trump floats lifting sanctions against a new Iranian regime Bolton warns Trump may not have thought past the trigger on Iran OPEC+ hiked oil production by 206,000 bpd in Sunday’s meeting Trump: We have hit hundreds of targets Markets: WTI crude oil up $3.74 to $5.6% US 10-year yields
investingLive Asia-Pacific market news wrap: Oil up 5% with eyes on Iran Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn’t going to change anything for the respective central banks and will certainly be overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East. In fact, depending on the length of the conflict, all the data
What are the main events for today? Read More »
The Cashback Forex platform “UTSPAY” is now offering a special $40 Migration Bonus for traders who move their current cashback connection to the platform. In addition to this bonus, traders also earn cashback on every trade through a fxrebate system that returns part of the trading commission back to the user. This promotion gives traders
UTSPAY Triple Special : Upgrade Your Cashback Experience and Claim a $40 Bonus Read More »
John Bolton gave a candid interview to Politico and it’s worth reading carefully if you’re trying to figure out what comes next for oil markets and geopolitical risk. The former National Security Adviser praised the strikes as the “most consequential decision” of Trump’s presidency, but his warnings were pointed. Bolton said he’s “very worried” that
Bolton warns Trump may not have thought past the trigger on Iran Read More »
It’s going to be a dramatic day in markets as we reprice everything based on the war in Iran. Oil is obviously the big asset to watch but I’d warn that there was heavy front-running in the lead-up to the war. I’d estimate a premium of $5-8 so there is an incentive for the people
Monday morning early forex indications: Some US dollar buying but nothing dramatic Read More »
When the market hears bombs, it buys bonds. Or at least that’s usually the case. This time, the market is weighing whether the war in Iran is inflationary due to the 4.5% rise in oil prices so far. Notably, the gains in the oil market have been halved since the open but yields are at
Treasury yields are higher as the safety trade clashes with higher oil prices Read More »
By now, everyone knows what’s happening as the US and Israel strike Iran. Here is the state of play one hour into futures trading: WTI crude up $5.37 to $72.40 (about 8%) Gold up 2% to $5385 The US dollar leads in FX, narrowly ahead of CHF AUD/USD is the biggest mover, down 60 pips
A look at markets as the opening dust settles Read More »
Comments from Trump in a newly-released video: On Iran: We have hit hundreds of targets including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defense systems and nine ships plus naval building On Iran: Combat operations continue On Iran: Military operations will continue until all of our objectives are achieved There will likely be more U.S. casualties Iranian regime
Trump: We have hit hundreds of targets Read More »
Highlights include US NFP, Retail Sales, ISM PMIs, OPEC, EZ Flash HICP, ECB Minutes and Australian GDP Sun: OPEC Meeting Mon: German Retail Sales (Jan), Final Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Tue: Japanese Unemployment (Jan), EZ Flash HICP (Feb), US RCM/TIPP (Mar), UK Spring Statement Wed: Australian GDP (Q4), Chinese NBS PMIs
As the Israel-Iran war moves into its second day, the story is escalating fast, and markets are already treating it as a week-level event rather than a one-night shock. Reuters reported that Iranian state media confirmed the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following US and Israeli strikes. (Reuters) In parallel, U.S. President
US, Israel, Iran War Enters Day 2 After Trump Declares Khamenei Dead Read More »
Major US stock indices close lower. S&P and NASDAQ index down for the month Why private equity stocks are getting wrecked today Trump: Not happy with Iran but more talks expected on Friday Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 3.0% versus 3.1% last Iran strikes loom large over today’s trade Silver sprints higher, gains
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 dipped to 3.0% from 3.1% last. In their own words The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.0 percent on February 27, down from 3.1 percent on February 24. After this morning’s releases from the
Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 3.0% versus 3.1% last Read More »
According to Israeli Media: A Broad US–Israel Strike Campaign in Iran and Markets May Be Entering a Full Geopolitical Week In the last hour, Israeli media is describing a large-scale, coordinated strike campaign inside Iran, framed not as a limited tactical action but as the opening phase of a broader, multi-day operation. The attack started
US and Israel Launch Broad Strike Wave in Iran Read More »
As the trading week comes to a close, the AUDUSD is higher on the week and continues to trade above a key cluster of moving averages, including the 100-hour moving average at 0.7093, the 200-hour moving average at 0.7078, and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.7070. Holding above this moving average
AUDUSD Technicals: AUDUSD closing with a more bullish bias. What would tarnish the bias? Read More »
US Pres. Trump is speaking on Iran and says: Not happy with Iran, but were talks expected Friday. Has not made a decision on Iran and not happy with how they negotiate. Iran cannot have nuclear weapon. There may or may not be a regime change in Iran. Wants to make a deal with Iran.
Trump: Not happy with Iran but more talks expected on Friday Read More »
Both the S&P index only NASDAQ index closed lower for the month. The S&P fell -0.87% after a gain of 1.37% in the month of January. The NASDAQ index-3.38%. That was its worst month since March 2025. The Dow industrial average rose by a modest 0.17%. For the trading day, the major indices are all
Major US stock indices close lower. S&P and NASDAQ index down for the month Read More »
In the video above, I take a deep dive into some of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective as the week comes to a close and the new week and month starts. In the video, I take a look at the: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD and AUDUSD Prepare for the new week
A technical look at some of the major currency pairs heading into the new trading week Read More »
I don’t think anyone will be shedding a tear for the declines in private equity stocks but Blue Owl (which is notorious for software loans): -6% Jefferies -10.3% Apollo -8.4% KKR -7.3% Ares -7.1% Goldman Sachs -7% Morgan Stanley 6.6% The fundamental pitch of private equity is leveraged lending and buyouts. There were buyouts of
Why private equity stocks are getting wrecked today Read More »
Prior +2.1% HICP +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +2.1% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% prior We have slight misses here but that was pretty much expected after the softer German states readings here. Having said that, the core measure matched the prior reading. The data won’t change anything for the ECB. The market
Germany February preliminary CPI +1.9% vs +2.0% y/y expected Read More »
Silver is up nearly 6% as it looks to break out of a recent range. These are the best levels since the crushing rout on January 30. Notably, that was the final trading day of January and this is the final trading day of February. The chart suddenly looks more promising as it breaks above
Silver sprints higher, gains more than 5% Read More »
Prior YoY was +3.0% PPI M/M +0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior +0.5% (revised to 0.4%) Core PPI Core PPI Y/Y +3.6% vs +3.0% expected Prior +3.3% Core PPI M/M +0.8% vs +0.3% expected Prior Core PPI MoM +0.7% (revised to 0.6%) WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES? The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator
US January PPI final demand Y/Y +2.9% vs +2.6% expected Read More »
The NASDAQ index pushed to a high on Monday but failed to extend above its falling 100-hour moving average, a rejection that triggered a sharp move lower. The decline reached Tuesday’s weekly low near 22,193, aligning with the top of a key swing support area. A subsequent rebound carried the index back above the 100-hour
Nasdaq Technicals: Nasdaq index failed to extend above key MAs. Bias is lower. Read More »
Headlines: Gold remains supported amid US-Iran uncertainty, but downside risks linger with NFP next Oil prices remain supported amid US-Iran uncertainty; traders likely to hedge into weekend Major currencies not up to much as we get into the final stretch of the week Bavaria February CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior France February preliminary CPI
German inflation remains one of, if not the key sticking point for the ECB in trying to sort out monetary policy setting. Price pressures in Europe’s largest economy hasn’t dropped off enough to allow for the central bank to take more steps in lowering interest rates further. And late last year, there were still stagflation
Heads up: Germany states’ CPI readings due later today Read More »
There is no sense over-analyzing price action today across markets. Yes, there is the usual software anxiety in stock markets but the overarching theme across bonds, FX, commodities and precious metals is simple — angst about US strikes on Iran. That thinking has US 10-year yields below 4% for the first time since November while
Iran strikes loom large over today’s trade Read More »
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come – Earlier, PBOC trimming some support for the yuan: PBOC cuts FX risk reserve ratio to 0%, slowing yuan appreciation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9228 (vs. estimate at 6.8428) Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to bounce around as macro and geopolitical uncertainty is keeping the market rangebound. The greenback strengthened yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had
USDCAD consolidates around monthly highs as traders await US NFP and USMCA news Read More »
The broader market sentiment is one that looks to be more cautious, especially with the sudden hit in Wall Street overnight. In the end, US stocks ended lower but it could’ve been worse. Tech shares led the declines as the S&P 500 fell by 0.5% and Nasdaq by 1.0%, while the Dow closed flat. That’s
Major currencies not up to much as we get into the final stretch of the week Read More »
The USDCHF is moving lower in North American trading, pressured by a softer US dollar backdrop as risk sentiment deteriorates. US equities opened sharply lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.78% and the NASDAQ falling 1.08%. At the same time, US yields are declining despite higher-than-expected PPI data, signaling markets are looking past inflation strength
USDCHF Technicals: USDCHF moves lower to a new low for the week Read More »
Shares jumped on the news. The vibe here is a slashing of back office costs, replacement with AI tools. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
UK confidence slips as unemployment rises and car output weakens, clouding the early-year growth outlook. Summary: UK consumer confidence fell to -19 in February, a three-month low Unemployment rose to 5.2%, highest since early 2021 Car production dropped 8.2% y/y in January; exports down 10.1% Commercial vehicle output plunged 68.6% amid restructuring Savings rate remains
UK consumer confidence falls to three-month low and car production drops 8% Read More »
The USDCAD moved lower in the latest hourly bar, testing Monday’s low near 1.3649. The break lower has been modest so far, but sellers remain in control as downside pressure persists. Earlier in the session, the pair briefly moved higher following the PPI release, but that rally quickly faded after the price tested the 100-hour
USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD extends to new lows for the day and tests the low for the week Read More »
Sector Overview The stock market today showcases a complex tapestry of trends and fluctuations. The technology sector is under significant pressure, with major players like Microsoft (MSFT) down by 2.63% and Nvidia (NVDA) witnessing a 2.24% decline. Notably, Broadcom (AVGO) is also down by 3.11%, pointing towards a widespread downturn within the tech space. On
Tech sector under pressure: Energy and healthcare offer a safe haven Read More »
Major banks reaffirm confidence in NVIDIA’s AI growth runway, lifting targets and flagging multi-year demand visibility. Summary: JPMorgan maintains Buy, lifts price target to $265 from $250 UBS reiterates Buy, keeps $245 target UBS says it’s “hard to see” why shares remain rangebound Analysts point to stronger guidance, demand visibility, backlog into 2027 Street sees
NVIDIA gets fresh Wall Street backing. JPMorgan lifts target to 265, UBS flags AI upside Read More »
The broader US stock market snapped a two-day win streak, leaving the major indices modestly lower for the week with one session remaining. The Dow is down -0.26%, the S&P is down -0.01% and the Nasdaq is down -0.03%. For the day: Dow industrial average rose 17.05 points or +0.03% S&P fell -37.27 points or
US stocks indices snap 2-day up streak. Nvidia/chip stocks tumble Read More »
While a lot of focus on the BOJ is turning to the outcome of the spring wage negotiations in the weeks ahead, ANZ is one to argue that the bigger picture outlook might be one that limits the scope for the central bank to stay on the tightening path. And the firm argues that it
BOJ will only have little room to raise interest rates further – ANZ Read More »
Development process during the 14th ‘five-year plan’ period is “extremely unusual and extraordinary” China’s economic strength and comprehensive national strength has jumped to a whole new level To make greater efforts to protect and improve people’s livelihood To continue to expand domestic demand, optimise supply conditions Will implement more active and promising macro policies And
China’s Politburo: Development process of latest ‘five-year plan’ is “extremely unusual” Read More »
Prior was +0.5% Private construction +0.5% Residential construction +1.5% Non-residential construction -0.7% Public construction -0.5% m/m Public construction +3.6% y/y Given the jumps in shares of CAT and DE, there better be some construction spending in the pipeline. The annualized rate in the report is $2,168.8 billion, which is down 0.4% from last December. Private
US December construction spending +0.3% vs +0.3% expected Read More »
Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.4% Swiss economic output bounces back in the final quarter of last year, after a drag in the third quarter. The decline was largely due to a big fall in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, but that has now rebounded (+1.9%) in Q4 2025. Domestic demand conditions (+0.5%) held up and
Switzerland Q4 GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expected Read More »
UK political developments are looking set to return into the picture, especially with the latest happening in Manchester. The Gorton and Denton by-election saw a rather seismic result, with Labour losing a seat that they have held for nearly a century. For some context, the by-election was triggered after MP Andrew Gwynne resigned due to
Sterling set to be haunted by the political ghost Read More »
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 59 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 52 bps (84% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 9 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 8 bps
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices surged yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. The prices pulled back on
Prior was +2.6% GDP -0.2% q/q vs +0.6% prior Real GDP increased 1.7% in 2025 The number might not be as bad as it looks as the fourth quarter decrease was largely due to withdrawals of business inventories following inventory accumulations in the third quarter. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Canada Q4 GDP -0.6% vs 0.0% expected Read More »
U.S. equity futures are under pressure this morning, with the Nasdaq (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES) both down 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 (RTY) is lagging further with a 1.3% drop. While the “Magnificent 7” are seeing modest declines led by Microsoft (-2.5%), the real story is a violent resumption of selling in the software
Software slump leads pre-market retreat Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the German inflation data both the state readings and the national CPI. We will also get the French and Spanish inflation figures, but the German data is generally more market-moving because it carries more weight in the Eurozone CPI calculations. The German
What are the main events for today? Read More »
TGIF. The USD is little changed to start the North American session as traders await the US January PPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are for a +0.3% MoM increase, while the YoY rate is forecast to ease to 2.6% from 3.0%. The dollar is trading mixed against the major currency pairs — EURUSD,
The USD is little changed to start the NA session. What next technically? Read More »
Block’s AI-explicit workforce reset, rewarded with a ~25% after-hours pop. May WILL become the template other CEOs copy next. Block will cut 4,000+ roles, taking headcount from 10k+ to just under 6k (nearly half). Management framed the move explicitly as an AI-enabled operating model: smaller, higher-talent teams using AI to automate more work. The market
Block shares jump ~25% after AI-driven layoffs; Job loss floodgates to open wide Read More »
Japan’s Katayama flags FX “urgency” as Takaichi fiscal push keeps yen pressured USD/CNY rebounds as PBOC scraps FX risk reserve ratio to cool yuan rally – recap Japan capital CPI slips under BOJ target in policy test USD/CNY & USD/CNH jump as PBoC cuts FX RRR to zero, cooling yuan gains PBOC sets USD/ CNY
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: PBoC cools yuan gains Read More »
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8428 – Reuters estimate Read More »
Summary: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan is watching the yen’s slide “with a strong sense of urgency” and is in close communication with the US. The warning lands as PM Sanae Takaichi pushes a more expansionary fiscal stance that markets see as yen-negative at the margin. Takaichi has also nominated two dovish-leaning BOJ board
Japan’s Katayama flags FX “urgency” as Takaichi fiscal push keeps yen pressured Read More »
Tokyo core inflation dips below 2%, but firm underlying prices keep BOJ tightening bias intact. Summary: Tokyo February headline CPI: 1.6% y/y (exp 1.4%) Core (ex fresh food): 1.8% y/y (exp 1.7%, prior 2.0%) Core-core (ex fresh food & energy): 2.5% y/y (exp 2.3%, prior 2.4%) Core inflation slips below BOJ’s 2% target for first
Japan capital CPI slips under BOJ target in policy test Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got stuck in another consolidation as the bullish momentum remains weak amid conflicting signals. Yesterday, it looked like the third round of US-Iran talks went bad as we got reports of Iran rejecting US demands. The markets went into risk-off, eventually supporting gold prices. Later on, we got reports that the talks
Gold remains supported amid US-Iran uncertainty, but downside risks linger with NFP next Read More »
Prior +2.3% HICP +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The main thing to watch is core annual inflation and that is seen at 2.7%, a step up from the 2.6% reading in January. The trend for core prices is looking rather dicey for Spain as it is moving upwards since the middle of last
Spain February preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y expected Read More »
This snapshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. The focus on
Prior +0.5% French Q4 GDP is confirmed at +0.2% q/q, reflecting slight growth in the final quarter of last year. This leads to overall GDP being 0.9% for the year 2025, which is slightly softer than the 1.1% growth in 2024. Looking at the overall breakdown for the year, domestic demand conditions held up well
France Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q prelim Read More »
Prior +0.3% HICP +1.1% vs +0.7% y/y expected Prior +0.4% The bigger jump in the annual estimates is largely tied to base effects, as electricity prices had fallen more sharply in February 2025. That being said, the monthly estimates also show a rebound in prices with headline inflation up 0.8% in February. That follows the
France February preliminary CPI +1.0% vs +0.8% y/y expected Read More »
Netflix has opted not to increase its bid for Warner Bros., stepping away from the deal. Shares of Netflix surged as much as 13% in after-hours trading, while the company will receive a $2.8 billion breakup fee following its withdrawal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Netflix shares just jumped circa 13%, just scored a free US$2.8bn payout Read More »
German import prices rose strongly in January, reflecting the strongest monthly jump since January last year. But compared to the same month a year ago, import prices are seen down 2.3%. Once again, that is largely due to a drag in energy prices – down by over 21% in that period. If you strip that
Germany January import price index +1.1% vs -0.1% m/m prior Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq sold off yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. This kind of back-and-forth
Weekend risk could keep a lid on the Nasdaq as US-Iran tensions persist. What’s next? Read More »
The other readings released around the same time (updated on the go): North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.8% vs +2.0% y/y prior Saxony CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI +1.8% vs +2.1% y/y prior The early indications point to headline annual inflation softening by a bit more than the January readings. At the balance,
Bavaria February CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior Read More »
Summary: PBOC will cut FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20%, effective March 2 Move reverses a September 2022 tightening aimed at curbing yuan losses Lower ratio reduces cost of USD buying via forwards USD/CNH jumped to 6.8599 (+0.3%) after the announcement Seen as a step to slow recent yuan strength after sharp gains
USD/CNY & USD/CNH jump as PBoC cuts FX RRR to zero, cooling yuan gains Read More »
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. The expiries keep nearby the confluence of the key hourly moving averages, seen at 1.1795-00 currently. As such, that might at least help to keep price action more locked in around
FX option expiries for 27 February 10am New York cut Read More »
Dominic LeBlanc, who is the Canadian minister responsible for US-Canada trade, says that private government to government conversations on USMCA are “not discouraging”. Regarding separate bi-lateral deals, he said there have always been bilateral arrangements between the three countries. Sticking with the double negatives, he said he’s “not pessimistic” about eventual bilateral sectoral arrangements with
Canadian minister: Gov’t to gov’t conversations on USMCA are “not discouraging” Read More »
Summary: PBOC cut FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20%, effective March 2 Move reduces cost of betting against yuan via forwards USD/CNY midpoint held at 6.9228, defying expectations for fresh lows USD/CNH rebounded as traders pared yuan-long positions Analysts see USD/CNY stabilising in 6.90–6.95 range China’s central bank has signalled that the rapid
USD/CNY rebounds as PBOC scraps FX risk reserve ratio to cool yuan rally – recap Read More »
Oman foreign min: There was significant progres in negotiations, talks will resume US initial jobless claims 212K vs 215K estimate Canada Q4 current account deficit $0.71B vs $7.71B expected Jack Dorsey’s Block cutting 4,000 employees, reducing workforce by nearly 50%. Shares jump Canadian minister: Gov’t to gov’t conversations on USMCA are “not discouraging” U.S. Treasury
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nvidia shares sink after earnings Read More »
Data only, I’ll have more to come on this, details and analysis, separately. Japan January: Retail Sales +1.8% y/y expected -0.4%, prior -0.9% Industrial Production +2.2% m.m expected 5.3%, prior -0.1% Manufacturers see: February output -0.5% m/m prior forecast -4.3% March output -2.6% m/m This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
More Japan data: January retail sales beat and industrial production miss Read More »
China’s central bank will cut the foreign-exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2, 2026, aiming to enhance currency market development and support companies’ exchange-rate hedging needs. The PBOC said it will continue encouraging financial institutions to strengthen hedging services while maintaining the renminbi broadly stable at a
PBOC cuts FX risk reserve ratio to 0%, slowing yuan appreciation Read More »
This is just the data, I’ll have more, details and analysis, to come on this separately. Tokyo February 2026 CPI y/y Headline 1.6% expected 1.4%, prior Excluding fresh food 1.8% expected 1.7%, prior 2.0%) Excluding Fresh Food & Energy 2.5% expected 2.3%, prior 2.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The GBPUSD dipped below its 200-hour moving average during the European session but rebounded into the US morning. That recovery, however, ran out of steam ahead of the session highs. When price rolled back below the 200-hour MA (1.3521) and then the 100-hour MA (1.35125), sellers reasserted control and downside momentum accelerated. The pair extended
GBPUSD Technicals: GBPUSD tumbles but finds support near a familiar MA level Read More »
Oil is quickly lower by $1 on these headlines and now flat on the day. The minister said talks with resume soon after consultations in the respective capitals. A separate CNN report said Iran affirmed it will never have nuclear weapons. Update: A report on Iranian TV says signs indicate than an agreement is imminent.
Oman foreign min: There was significant progres in negotiations, talks will resume Read More »
The AUDUSD is one of the larger movers today, down -0.46%, pressured by a broader risk-off tone as US equities slide. Nvidia’s earnings failed to extend yesterday’s upside momentum, and that weighed on commodity-linked and higher-beta currencies like the Aussie. Technically, the pair also failed where it mattered most. The Asian session high stalled below
We can now see that our efforts to bring inflation down have been effective We continue to expect inflation to stabilise at our 2% target in the medium-term We therefore decided to keep key ECB interest rates unchanged at our monetary policy meeting earlier this month We will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting
Bitcoin surged roughly 6% yesterday, but today the tone has shifted. The price is currently down about -1.75%, giving back a portion of those gains as sellers lean against key resistance. The turning point came right where it mattered. On the hourly chart, yesterday’s rally stalled at the February 16 high, a clear resistance level.
Bitcoin: The price of bitcoin falls back to the the 200 hour MA after run higher stalls Read More »
High-yield 3.790% WI level at the time of the auction 3.790% Tail 0.0 basis points vs 0.4 basis point six-month averages Bid to cover 2.50X vs 6 month average of 2.46X Dealers 10.4% versus 11.4% six-month average Directs 26% versus 26.0% six-month average Indirects 63.6% vs 62.6% six-month average This article was written by Greg
U.S. Treasury sellers 44 billion of the 7 year notes a high yield of 3.790% Read More »
Nvidia put its best foot forward with a big earnings beat but it isn’t enough for the market. Shares were up around 1% in the pre-market but opened lower and are now down almost 5%. The drop is spreading beyond the company and the Nasdaq is down 1.7% and it’s now even hitting FX with
Nvidia shares fall nearly 5% and risk trades roll over Read More »
Japanese media with the news drop. I’ll have more to come on this separately. Under some pressure: The Japanese Yen sinks as PM Takaichi signals opposition to further BoJ rate hikes This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will examine the impact of rate hikes so far Read More »
It’s nice to wrap up the trading week with it being the final day of the month. And interestingly enough, did you realise that the March calendar is a repeat of February (only with the additional 3 days). In February trading, the dollar has been rather resilient after struggling towards the end of last year.
Dollar on the rocks but may stay supported through month-end – Credit Agricole Read More »
If you want to know how talks are going between Iran and the USA then you don’t need to look any further than the intraday WTI crude oil chart. It was lower earlier on some profit taking ahead of talks but since the talks ended, it’s been one-way traffic higher. Reports continue to highlight that
The oil market isn’t exactly signaling peace in the Middle East Read More »
The problem with being all show is that eventually you have to deliver real results. Earlier today there was a Politico report about Howard Lutnick and how the vast majority of his $18 trillion in touted investment deals into the US is basically smoke-and-mirrors, AI investment, or a repackaging of things that were already announced.
Beijing uneasy as Trump–Xi summit preparations lose momentum – report Read More »
Takata says Japan is near 2% inflation “mission accomplished,” backing further gradual BoJ normalisation. — In summary, BoJ Policy Board member Hajime Takata argues Japan is close to meeting the 2% price-stability goal, with the deflationary “norm” largely broken. He sees the global backdrop shifting in 2026 toward stronger growth as monetary and fiscal settings
BoJ’s Takata says Japan is near 2% target, backs further gradual rate hikes Read More »
The U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.615%: WI level at the time of the auction 3.608% Tail 0.7 basis points v 6 month average up 0.3 basis pointss Bid to cover 2.32X versus 6 month average of 2.36X Dealers 12.8% versus 6 month average of 10.1%
U.S. Treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.615% Read More »
NVIDIA delivered a monster Q4, posting record revenue of $68.1 billion — comfortably ahead of the $66.2 billion consensus estimate — with earnings of $1.62 per share (non-GAAP). Revenue surged 73% year-over-year, driven almost entirely by the data center juggernaut, which pulled in $62.3 billion and now accounts for 91% of total sales. But the
NVDA stock treads water after earnings. Why buyers are cautious despite a huge beat Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver pulled all the way back into a key swing level around the 92.00 handle as some renewed tariff uncertainty and the risk of a military escalation between US and Iran has kept the market supported. Nonetheless, the bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned given
Silver retreats from a key level as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices stabilized after last week’s sharp surge, which was driven by fears of a possible military escalation over the weekend. Attention is now turning to the third round of US–Iran nuclear talks taking place in Geneva today. Based on the developments so far, the prospects for an agreement appear slim. In fact,
Crude oil in the spotlight as the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks begins in Geneva Read More »
Reuters report that Toyota prepares potential $19bn share unwind in major governance reform signal. Summary: Toyota is preparing a potential ¥3 trillion (~$19bn) share sale via financial institutions to unwind cross-shareholdings, sources told Reuters. The plan could take place as early as 2026 but remains subject to change. Toyota may use buybacks to absorb shares;
Toyota plans $19bn share unwind in landmark governance reform move – Reuters Read More »
Prior was 206K (revised to 208K) Four-week moving average 220.25K vs 219.50K last week Continuing claims 1.833M vs 1,858M expected Prior continuing claims 1.864M revised from 1.869M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 14 were in Iowa (+377), Michigan (+105), Florida (+84), and Nevada (+1). The largest decreases were in
US initial jobless claims 212K vs 215K estimate Read More »
Prior -12.4 Economic confidence 98.3 vs 99.8 expected Prior 99.4; revised to 99.3 Industrial confidence -7.1 vs -6.1 expected Prior -6.8 Services confidence 5.0 vs 7.5 expected Prior 7.2 Slight delay in the release by the source. Euro area economic sentiment drops slightly in February, keeping below the long-term average score of 100 still. The
Eurozone February final consumer confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 prelim Read More »
Takata warns of inflation overshoot, reinforcing expectations of further BOJ tightening and lifting the yen. Summary: BOJ board member Hajime Takata warned of inflation overshoot risks. Repeated call for gradual further rate hikes. Said Japan has effectively achieved the 2% inflation target. Flagged rising medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Remarks came after PM Sanae Takaichi
Recap – BOJ hawk Takata flags inflation overshoot risk, yen strengthened on hike signals Read More »
Bitcoin and Ether futures cool off after the rebound as traders watch key acceptance zones Bitcoin futures (BTC1!) and Ether futures (ETH1!) are both in a “pause after the push” phase. The daily charts still reflect a rebound attempt that is stalling under overhead supply, while the 4H footprint view adds an important layer: the
Crypto today and what to watch after yesterday’s massive rebound Read More »
Sector Overview: Mixed Movements Across Key Sectors Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a mixed picture across sectors, with distinct movements shaping the day’s trading landscape. The technology sector demonstrates resilience, while semiconductors experience notable declines. Let’s delve into the details. 📈 Technology Sector: A Bright SpotThe technology sector shines brightly today. Microsoft (MSFT) gains 0.86%
Technology rallies, semiconductors falter: Today’s market dynamics Read More »
The USDCAD is pushing higher after a move lower in the Asian Pacific session stalled ahead of this week’s low near 1.3649. Sellers had an opportunity to press the pair to new weekly lows but failed to generate follow-through. That inability to extend lower invited buyers back in. The bounce has now carried the price
USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD rebounds after failed downside extension in Asia Read More »
Prior was -$9.68 (revised to -$5.27B) 14th consecutive quarter of current account deficits Trade in goods and services balance posted a $3.1 billion deficit in the fourth quarter vs $4.4 billion in Q3 Goods deficit $4.5B vs $9.5B prior Foreign investors acquired a record $33.6 billion of federal government bonds Canadian investors acquired $18.5 billion
Canada Q4 current account deficit $0.71B vs $7.71B expected Read More »
To be fair, she could use better choice of words here if she wants to sound more assuring. But in all likelihood, it looks like she wants to maintain optionality in her decision. How typical of a central banker these days, eh? The key word in her answer that is baseline. As we all know,
ECB president Lagarde: My baseline is that I will stay until the end of my term Read More »
The US dollar is kicking off the session mixed. EURUSD and GBPUSD are lower (firmer USD), while USDJPY is also lower (softer USD vs JPY). As we head toward the North American session and the end of the week, the focus shifts to whether these pairs can break out of tight ranges and establish clearer
EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY technical outlook: Key levels as the USD starts mixed Read More »
The bar was already set incredibly high for Nvidia going into this week’s earnings call, as it has been for many quarters now. And once again, the chip giant defies concerns to the AI trade with a strong triple beat so to speak. All three of revenue, earnings, and guidance hit their market and then
Early market reaction shows that the bar for Nvidia may have gotten even higher Read More »
Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will examine the impact of rate hikes so far Bitcoin Technicals: Bitcoin is up sharply today. What did the rally do to the technicals? Israeli press: There is a high chance of an attack on Iran Fed’s Musalem: Inflation
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 25 Feb: The USD moves lower ahead of Nvidia earnings Read More »
The S&P 500 remains supported by positive macro backdrop, but downside risks linger US futures hold caution ahead of the open later Silver retreats from a key level as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report Eurozone February final consumer confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 prelim ECB president Lagarde: My baseline is that I
investingLive European FX news wrap: Oil prices drop amid ongoing US-Iran talks Read More »
The big story in the equities market came after the close yesterday, with Nvidia delivering a major beat in their earnings report across the board. That saw shares of the tech giant rose by over 3% for a brief period in after-hours trading before settling with more modest gains. In turn, broader market sentiment also
US futures hold caution ahead of the open later Read More »
Does not think that the BOJ is behind the curve for now But want to ensure BOJ doesn’t fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks Difficult to determine the desirable pace of rate hikes and also the terminal rate Pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price, market developments at the time
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to bounce around potentially due to some uncertainty around tariffs after the US Supreme Court ruled against the previous levies. It’s pretty clear at this point that tariffs are here to stay as Trump reimposed them using different laws. Overall, not much has changed. The price action remains
EURUSD stays rangebound as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report Read More »
Singapore MAS survey: 2026 GDP seen at 3.6%, April tightening odds rise China Two Sessions 2026: growth target, fiscal stance and 15th plan signals in focus Toyota plans $19bn share unwind in landmark governance reform move – Reuters Recap – BOJ hawk Takata flags inflation overshoot risk, yen strengthened on hike signals Bank of Korea
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Hawkish BoJ (Ueda & Takata) boost JPY Read More »
Israel’s Ynet reports that US strikes on Iran are increasingly likely. The report citing Israeli diplomatic sources estimates that the new Iranian proposals do not meet the American threshold conditions. One of the sources estimated there is a high chance the US will launch an attack. “It’s hard for us to see the Americans walking
Israeli press: There is a high chance of an attack on Iran Read More »
BOJ governor Ueda came out today with a bold statement, at least by his standards, in saying that their upcoming policy meetings in March and April will be live. The timing of that remark says a lot as it comes after his meeting with prime minister Takaichi, as well as the report yesterday that Takaichi
BOJ up against the clock in delivering the next rate hike? Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t change anything for the market. The focus today will likely be on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, which are seen as the last-ditch effort to prevent a conflict.
What are the main events for today? Read More »
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 320.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9228 (vs. estimate at 6.8605) Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 rebounded from the monthly lows as risk sentiment improved. There was no real catalyst for the move as the market continues to trade in a range amid uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical fronts. The short-term uncertainty caused by the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs might have weighed on
The S&P 500 remains supported by positive macro backdrop, but downside risks linger Read More »
There are just a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD lined up in between the 1.1800 to 1.1825 level. Given the lack of key catalysts in the session ahead, the expiries could act as bookends for price action in European
FX option expiries for 26 February 10am New York cut Read More »
The ANZ Business Outlook survey is a well-regarded monthly survey tracking the sentiment of hundreds of New Zealand businesses concerning the economy’s future. It measures confidence, hiring, investment, and inflation expectations, with findings recently showing, for instance, a 30-year high in December 2025. From the Reserve Bank of Australia we get its ‘Bulletin’. The Reserve
Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, February 26, 2026 Read More »
Summary: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says markets are misjudging AI’s impact on software firms. Huang argues AI will enhance, not replace, companies like ServiceNow. Q4 revenue surged 73% y/y to $68.13bn, beating estimates. Q1 guidance of $78bn ±2% significantly topped expectations. Strong outlook counters concerns of an AI hardware spending bubble Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
Nvidia’s Huang says markets misjudge AI threat as revenue and guidance smash forecasts Read More »
This is ‘just the data’ post. Australian Private Capital Expenditure Q4 2025 +0.4% q/q expected 0%, prior +6.4% CapExp for 2025-26, estimate 5 is AUD199.3bn prior 191.3bn Plant Machinery CapEx -1.7% q.q prior +11.5% Building CapExp +2.3% q/q prior +2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Australian Q4 2025 business capex has fallen from Q3 but has beaten expectations Read More »
BOK’s new dot plot reinforces a 2.50% hold bias, with only a small minority pricing a cut. Summary: More from the Bank of Korea’s Feb 26 decision: the hold at 2.50% was unanimous. The new six-month “dot plot” shows the board’s centre of gravity is a prolonged hold. 16 of 21 dots sit at 2.50%,
Bank of Korea dot plot points to prolonged 2.50% hold as chip exports support growth Read More »
China’s Two Sessions (4–11 March) is shaping up as a “targets + 15th plan signalling” event, more about direction and policy bias than a single mega-stimulus headline. Summary: China’s “Two Sessions” will open in Beijing on 4 March (CPPCC) and 5 March 2026 (NPC), with the headline policy statement coming via the Government Work Report
China Two Sessions 2026: growth target, fiscal stance and 15th plan signals in focus Read More »
BOK holds at 2.50% and unveils Fed-style dot plot as policy pause deepens. Summary: Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate at 2.50%, as expected. Decision unanimous among seven-member board. 2026 GDP forecast at 2.0%; 2027 growth seen at 1.8%. 2025 inflation forecast at 2.2%; 2027 inflation at 2.0%. BOK introduces quarterly “dot plot”-style forward
Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.50%, introduces Fed-style dot plot guidance Read More »
With gold now angling for a renewed push above $5,200, ANZ continues to argue for a more bullish rhetoric for the precious metal amid recent developments. Most of the overarching themes underpinning gold have been the same since last year, but ANZ is adding one more to the list. That being a “less crowded” investor
Gold outlook remains bullish with more room for fresh long positions now – ANZ Read More »
IMF sees solid US growth but warns rising deficits and debt heighten vulnerabilities. Summary: IMF completes US Article IV review 2026 growth seen at 2.4% Employment growth to slow structurally Unemployment near 4% in 2026–27 Core PCE at 2% by early 2027 Deficits seen at 7–8% of GDP Debt projected at 140% of GDP by
IMF sees US growth at 2.4% in 2026, urges deficit cuts as debt heads to 140% GDP Read More »
US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran is pursuing intercontinental ballistic missiles and called Tehran’s refusal to discuss them a “big, big problem.” Talks Thursday will focus on the nuclear programme, though he stressed diplomacy remains on the table. Summary: Rubio calls Iran a “very grave” US threat Says Iran not enriching currently Warns Tehran
Rubio says Iran pursuing ICBMs, missile issue a “big problem” before talks Read More »
Ueda keeps tightening bias intact, flags further hikes if outlook firms. Summary: Ueda reiterates conditional tightening bias Rates to rise if outlook materialises Underlying inflation still below 2% Policy aimed at preventing overshoot BoJ says not “behind the curve” Inflation expected to re-accelerate No change to January projections Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced
BOJ’s Ueda says rates will rise if outlook strengthens, inflation to re-accelerate Read More »
Summary: Q1 revenue guidance $76.44B–$79.56B vs $72.78B est Q4 revenue $68.13B, +73% y/y, beat vs $65.91B Data centre revenue $62.3B, +75% y/y, ahead of estimates Gaming revenue $3.7B, below consensus Gross margin 75.2%, remains exceptionally strong Adjusted operating income $46.11B, +81% y/y Free cash flow $34.9B vs $15.5B y/y FY27 tax rate seen 17%–19% Nvidia
Nvidia Q4 crushes, Q1 guide tops Street as AI engine roars Read More »
IMF’s Georgieva says tariffs lifted goods inflation, backs gradual Fed easing and deficit action. Summary: Goods inflation partly tariff-driven Fed funds at 3.25%–3.5% consistent with full employment US debt requires determined fiscal action IMF shares concern on trade deficits Current account deficit “too big” No formal view yet on tariff court ruling Court implications to
IMF’s Georgieva says tariffs lifted US goods inflation, backs Fed rate at 3.25%–3.5% Read More »
Confidence remains high, but rising cost and wage pressures keep inflation risks alive. Summary: Business confidence fell 5 points to 59.2 but remains elevated. Own-activity outlook improved slightly to 52.6. Pricing intentions eased marginally but remain high at 53%. Cost expectations rose to 79.4% — highest since mid-2023. Wage expectations lifted to 3.01%, highest since
NZ business confidence eases but inflation pressures build – ANZ survey Read More »
Economists upgrade Singapore’s 2026 growth outlook and are increasingly split on whether the MAS will tighten policy at its April 2026 review. Summary: Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Q1 survey (released 25 February 2026) shows economists lift 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% (prev. 2.3%). Nearly 47.4% now expect a policy tightening at the April
Singapore MAS survey: 2026 GDP seen at 3.6%, April tightening odds rise Read More »
Ueda keeps March and April rate-hike window open, says wage gains could speed target timing. Earlier here, recapping now ICYMI. Summary: Ueda keeps tightening bias intact March and April meetings live Target timing could be brought forward Strong wage talks key upside risk No need to wait for April Tankan BOJ says not behind curve
BOJ’s Ueda flags March, April hike chance, says wage gains could hasten 2% target Read More »
Australian business investment edges higher as renewables drive capex upgrade. Summary: Q4 private capex +0.4% q/q (0% exp), prior +6.4 (data post here) Annual growth accelerated to +7.8% y/y. Buildings & structures +2.3%; equipment -1.7%. Non-mining investment at record high in real terms. 2025/26 capex estimate lifted to A$199.3bn (+4.3% revision). First 2026/27 estimate A$158.4bn
Australia Q4 capex beats expectations as renewable investment lifts outlook Read More »
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8605 – Reuters estimate Read More »
The price of Bitcoin is staging an aggressive rebound today after sliding to its lowest level since February 6 just yesterday. The low reached $62,525, marking a key test of channel support. Since then, buyers have stepped in decisively. Bitcoin is currently higher by roughly $5,000, a gain of 7.8% on the day. That is
Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index with a rise of 1.26%. The S&P index rose by 0.81% and the Dow industrial average rose by 0.63%. The Russell 2000 rose by 0.41%. The gains come ahead of the earnings from Salesforce, and Nvidia after
Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day Read More »
My baseline outlook is economy grows at or above 2% Financial conditions are accommodative, there is deregulation and fiscal tailwinds Half of excess inflation comes from tariffs, this will fade as the year progresses Job market is vulnerable to an increase in layoffs Inflation could stay higher for longer but that’s not my baseline Policy
Fed’s Musalem: Inflation is almost a full percentage point above target Read More »
AUDUSD rebounds as buyers reclaim key moving averages The AUDUSD has shifted tone over the past 24 hours, transitioning from defensive trade below resistance to a more constructive technical posture. After spending much of yesterday pinned beneath its 200-hour moving average, the pair has now forced its way back above both the 100- and 200-hour
AUDUSD Technicals: Buyers in the AUDUSD are taking more control, but there is work to do Read More »
President Trump gets all the attention on trade but if you want a better idea of what’s really happening — or the important details — you need to listen to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. He spoke with the media today and clarified a few things. Most notably is clarification around tariff rates. On Friday,
USTR’s Greer drops some hints about what’s coming on trade Read More »
The USDCHF continues to trade in choppy, two-way price action, reflecting broader indecision across the FX space. Today’s session has once again turned into a tug-of-war centered around one key technical barometer — the rising 200-hour moving average. That level is not just another line on the chart. It has become the dividing line between
USDCHF Technicals: The USDCHF is back down testing the 200 hour MA for the 4th time. Read More »
I expect China tariff level to remain in place We don’t intend to escalate tariffs on China Trade law on discrimination against US could be helpful in some situations New trade investigations will look at excess industrial capacity, forced labour in supply chains Tariffs will go up to 15% for some countries There will be
USTR Greer: We intend to stick to the China deal we had before Read More »
The average tariff rate on U.S. imports jumped from 2.6% to 13% over the course of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. On paper, that kind of increase should have pushed inflation higher. Instead, headline inflation actually eased from 2.9% year over year in December 2024 to 2.7% in December 2025.
Has U.S. inflation started turning higher again? Read More »
Bitcoin is up 6% today as it accelerates higher in North American trade. The gains have traced out and inverted head and shoulders bottom that targets just above $70,000. I also take this is a good sign for the risk trade, Nasdaq and software stocks. The AI disruption trade got too far ahead of itself
Bitcoin rips to $68,000 in a quick turnaround Read More »
The USDCAD is currently locked in a high-stakes technical battle. While the overall bias has shifted back to the upside, the “bulls” are facing a significant ceiling that must be cleared to sustain a long-term rally. After a roller-coaster week driven by U.S. tariff headlines and legal rulings, the price action has settled into a
Prior 0.0% GDP Y/Y 0.4% vs 0.4% preliminary Prior 0.3% No changes to the preliminary estimates. The German economy has been recovering gradually due to the expansionary fiscal policies and the ECB rate cuts. The momentum should hold in the first quarter given the strong data we had so far, unless there is a major
Germany Q4 final GDP 0.3% vs 0.3% q/q prelim Read More »
Statistics Canada out with the non-residential capital and repair expenditures report for 2026 intentions, and the headline is a deceleration in spending growth. Total capex by businesses, governments and institutions is expected to rise $14.4 billion in 2026, down from the $17.4 billion increase seen in 2025. The composition matters here though — machinery and
Canada capital spending intentions for 2026 come in at 3.7% vs 2025 pace of 4.7% Read More »
While the market has faced significant headwinds recently, there are growing indicators of a serious potential turnaround in crypto as the following analysis of current trends will show. Despite the fact that it is shaping up to be another rough week for cryptocurrencies, much of the downward pressure stems from specific technical liquidations rather than
Some are already buying the contrarian dip in crypto Read More »
Generic and non specific comments on investment and manufacturing (manufacturing jobs are lower so far under Trump!). He does mention lower drug prices. Whole stack of stuff not of relevance to markets. Excerpts provided by WSJ (gated). His central economic policy has collapsed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Advance excerpts of Trump’s speech show its lackluster Read More »
Japanese Yen extends losses as Takaichi’s opposition to rate hikes weighs on the currency Renewed uncertainty around tariffs weighs on the Indian Rupee amid Trump threats Eurozone January final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelim The Australian dollar weakens as RBA’s Bullock signals patience on judging policy Gold’s momentum wanes as focus turns to US-Iran
investingLive European FX news wrap: JPY extends losses, RBA Bullock signals patience Read More »
We recognized in February that inflation was too high The economy is in quite a good position, policy judgments are difficult Have to be patient in judging policy There’s been some weakness in the Australian dollar after her comments. It looks like she doesn’t want to overreact to near-term data and take a more patient
The Australian dollar weakens as RBA’s Bullock signals patience on judging policy Read More »
Sector Overview The stock market displayed a vibrant scene today, with a notable rally in the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. The heatmap shows particularly strong performance in semiconductor stocks and consumer retail giants, contributing to today’s positive market trajectory. 🏆 Technology and Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector shines with impressive gains. Notably, Micron Technology (MU)
Tech sector rallies: Strong gains in semiconductors and consumer cyclicals Read More »
This was hinted at in the API numbers yesterday but it’s still an astonishing build. Gasoline -1011K vs -560K expected Distillates +252K vs -1594K exp There were some waves late yesterday when the API survey showed this: Crude +11.4m Gasoline -1530K Distillates -2770K So even with this tip-off in the API report, this is still
EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +15.989m vs +1.481m expected Read More »
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 409.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9321 (vs. estimate at 6.8824) Read More »
Trump says Iran advancing missile, nuclear programs despite negotiations Japan govmt nominates new BOJ board members as rate-hike path comes into focus SOTU Trump: Says tariffs stay despite Supreme Court loss, pivots to new global levy Nikkei hits record high as AI fears fade and yen weakens Oil holds near seven-month highs ahead of US-Iran
I find David Tepper’s investment in Whirlpool to be an interesting one and I’ve written about it before. He’s a macro investor who has done it better than almost anyone at Appaloosa . In Q3, he disclosed a nearly 10% stake in the appliance maker but so far it hasn’t proven to be a great
David Tepper tells Whirlpool to put itself up for sale Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlights are the final German Q4 GDP and the final Eurozone CPI report. The preliminary German Q4 GDP report beat expectations showing a 0.3% Q/Q growth. The preliminary Eurozone CPI figures saw headline CPI Y/Y coming at 1.7%, while the core CPI Y/Y printed at 2.2%. The
What are the main events for today? Read More »
The Japanese yen has been declining against most major currencies throughout the entire session as Takaichi’s opposition for further rate hikes put downward pressure on the currency. There’s nothing in the near-term that could support the yen, unless we get a very hot Tokyo CPI report on Friday. As things stand, the yen should continue
FX Kickstart: Major Pairs Stalled in “Non-Trending” Ranges The US Dollar is starting the North American session on a mixed note. While the Greenback is lower against the Yen, it has found some footing against the Euro and Pound. Greg Michalowski highlights a market currently lacking a clear trend, with price action largely dictated by
OPEC meets this weekend and Reuters sources say they will consider a 137K bpd oil output hike. OPEC had paused production hikes in the first quarter of the year after a series of boosts last year. The report says OPEC is preparing for peak summer demand and that the hike will come from the eight
OPEC to consider hiking output by 137K bpd in April – report Read More »
In an exclusive interview with Reuters, former Bank of Japan chief, Haruhiko Kuroda expressed concerns about potential inflationary upswing coming from Takaichi’s big spending plans and a weak yen. Kuroda is famous for leading the BoJ during the Abenomics era. He launched a massive monetary stimulus in 2013 in an attempt to bring Japan out
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8824 – Reuters estimate Read More »
Summary: Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed to a new record high on Wednesday, buoyed by a rebound in technology shares as concerns about artificial intelligence disruption eased and the yen weakened. The benchmark Nikkei rose 1.4% in early trade to 58,100 and above, surpassing its previous peak set earlier this month following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s
Nikkei hits record high as AI fears fade and yen weakens Read More »
EUR/USD 1.1900 (EUR 5.09 bn) 1.1850 (EUR 2.19 bn) 1.1800 (EUR 3.91 bn) 1.1750 (EUR 1.82 bn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 2.92 bn) 155.00 (US$ 1.80 bn) GBP/USD 1.3550 (GBP 552.83 mn) 1.3475 (GBP 448.12 mn) USD/CHF 0.7790 (US$ 560.71 mn) 0.7725 (US$ 787.67 mn) USD/CAD 1.3650 (US$ 646.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.7150 (AUD 1.45 bn) 0.7100
FX option expiries for 25 February 10am New York cut Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold pared back Monday’s gains yesterday as the price pulled back to retest the broken 5100 level. The bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned, which is something we expected given no changes to the big picture. In fact, Trump has already imposed new tariffs under
Gold’s momentum wanes as focus turns to US-Iran talks and NFP report next week Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has really changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer
Renewed uncertainty around tariffs weighs on the Indian Rupee amid Trump threats Read More »
Prior +2.0% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.3% No changes to the preliminary estimates. Compared with December 2025, annual inflation fell in twenty-three Member States, remained stable in one and rose in three. In January 2026, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+1.45%), followed by
Eurozone January final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelim Read More »
Firm January inflation keeps the RBA on a tightening footing, lifting May hike expectations and supporting the Australian dollar. Summary: Headline CPI 0.4% m/m; 3.8% y/y Trimmed mean 3.4% y/y, above forecasts Goods inflation firm; services still elevated Housing major contributor May hike odds increased Separately, construction data weak Australia’s January inflation data came in
Australia CPI beats estimates, lifting RBA hike odds and boosting Aussie dollar Read More »
Via oilprice.com: — Oil markets swung in both directions on Tuesday but ultimately closed lower as signs of improving US-Iran relations weighed on prices. WTI and Brent futures were volatile overnight, briefly edging higher during the European session amid limited oil-specific headlines. Sentiment shifted sharply, however, after Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Tehran is
Harvard-led research suggests AI can replicate most active-fund trading patterns, leaving true alpha concentrated in a smaller set of non-routine decisions. Summary: AI model predicted 71% of fund trades Neural network trained on 1990–2023 data Unpredictable trades linked to outperformance Routine activity appears systematic Larger, competitive funds less predictable Active-fee justification under scrutiny (ps. I
Bloomberg: Harvard study finds AI predicts only 71% of active-fund trades Read More »
US February consumer confidence 91.2 vs 87.0 expected Richmond Fed composite index for February -10 versus -8 estimate BOE’s Bailey: Services prices inflation has not eased as much as we thought it would Home Depot’s Q4 earnings tell the story of a “frozen home environment” Fed’s Cook: AI transition could have profound implications but it’s
investingLive Americas market news wrap: US consumer confidence bounces from 11-year low Read More »
Japan’s latest BOJ nominations highlight how board composition could shape the pace of future rate hikes under Takaichi’s administration. Summary: Government nominates Toichiro Asada, Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan monetary policy board Both appointments subject to parliamentary approval Changes come amid gradual BOJ tightening Board balance key to future rate path Market wary
Japan govmt nominates new BOJ board members as rate-hike path comes into focus Read More »
Japan’s services inflation stayed sticky at 2.6%, reinforcing wage pass-through risks and keeping the BOJ on a tightening bias. Summary: Corporate services prices +2.6% y/y in January, unchanged from December’s 2.6% Construction and temp staffing drove increases Gauge supports view of wage-driven inflation persistence BOJ ended stimulus in 2024 Policy rate lifted to 0.75% in
Japan services inflation holds at 2.6%, keeping BOJ hike bias intact Read More »
Oil is pinned near seven-month highs as traders weigh US-Iran diplomacy against conflict risk and a potentially heavy US crude stock build. Summary: Brent/WTI hover near seven-month highs US-Iran talks slated Thursday in Geneva Conflict risk sustains a risk premium Iran remains key OPEC producer API shows big crude build Gasoline/distillates reportedly declined EIA data
Oil holds near seven-month highs ahead of US-Iran Geneva talks, EIA data awaited Read More »
Martin Schlegel is the Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). He took over as chairman in 2024 and leads the SNB’s three-member Governing Board, which sets Switzerland’s monetary policy. He spoke Tuesday. Schlegel downplayed short-term deflation risks, keeps medium-term inflation focus, and leaves FX intervention on the table. Summary: SNB
Trump warned Iran is advancing missile and nuclear ambitions despite negotiations, demanding a clear pledge against nuclear weapons in a record-length State of the Union. Summary: Trump accuses Iran of advancing missile capabilities Claims Tehran pursuing longer-range systems Says negotiations ongoing but incomplete Says he prefers diplomacy towards a solution Seeks explicit renunciation of nuclear
Trump says Iran advancing missile, nuclear programs despite negotiations Read More »
Trump is reframing the Supreme Court tariff loss as a detour, not a derailment, as his team shifts the broad tariff base to Section 122 while keeping key sector and China-related tariffs intact. Summary: Trump addressed tariffs during his SOTU address Supreme Court ruled IEEPA doesn’t authorise tariffs (Feb 20, 2026) White House pivoted to
SOTU Trump: Says tariffs stay despite Supreme Court loss, pivots to new global levy Read More »
Gold prices experienced a notable pullback today, dropping approximately 1.12%. This follows a strong rally that saw the precious metal reach a daily high of $5,249.87 before rotating back toward the midpoint of its trading range at $5,167. Key Technical Levels & Price Action The current market structure is defined by several critical support and
Gold Technicals: The price of gold is lower on the day but keeps its bullish bias. Read More »
Strategists see near-term consolidation for the Nikkei before earnings growth and foreign inflows drive a break above 60,000 by 2027. Summary: Nikkei seen at 57,500 by mid-2026 Forecast lifted from November poll 60,750 projected by mid-2027 Foreign inflows accelerating AI theme supportive but selective Correction risk viewed as limited Japan’s Nikkei 225 is expected to
Japan’s Nikkei seen surging to 60,750, extending historic record-breaking run Read More »
Goldman sees Japan’s rally extending on political stability and reform momentum — but sustainable gains hinge on ROE delivery. Summary: Takaichi’s landslide boosts political stability History suggests post-election multiple expansion Governance reform key to next leg ROE improvement central to re-rating Fiscal concerns easing post-election Foreign positioning improving, not stretched Reform delivery now critical Japanese
Goldman Sachs: Japan rally has further to run after Takaichi victory Read More »
USD/CAD momentarily touched the highest level since January 26 today before fading back to unchanged on the day. The pair has been climbing for the past two weeks as the US dollar recovers. This is an interesting level for the pair as it tests resistance from the Feb 5 high of 1.3724. Some things to
USD/CAD probes for a one-month high, Keystone XL could be revived Read More »
This is just a post for data, I’ll have details and analysis posted separately. Here we go, added: Australia CPI beats estimates, lifting RBA hike odds and boosting Aussie dollar Background: Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Australian January CPI 3.8% y/y (expected 3.7%, prior 3.8%) Read More »
The focus is the Australian CPI data for January: Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline Trump will speak later. State of the Union speech. His centrepiece economic policy has completely collapsed. He’s scrambling to recover: Trump considers new Section 232 tariffs after Supreme Court ruling This article was written by Eamonn
Latest tariff news hasn’t changed outlook much Economy shows benign outlook with focus on inflation and wage growth Fed must maintain independence to reach 2% inflation target Solid economic growth and resilient consumer consumption attributed to healthy household spending Reduced employment growth reflects slow growth in labor supply and demand Expects pace of hiring to
Fed’s Collins: Recent jobs data has been promising Read More »
The NZDUSD has rebounded in the North American session after sellers failed to sustain a break below the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.5945. The pair briefly dipped to 0.5943, but the move lacked follow-through, triggering a bounce that shifted short-term momentum back toward the buyers. That recovery gathered pace once price
The major US stock indices closed solidly higher today, rebounding after yesterday’s sharp declines. The S&P fell -1.04% and the NASDAQ dropped -1.12% in the prior session, but buyers stepped back in today. The S&P rose 0.77%, the NASDAQ gained 1.04%, the Dow advanced 0.76%, and the Russell 2000 led with a 1.12% increase. Risk
Broader US stock indices recover from yesterday’s selloff Read More »
Copper and everything related to it is rallying once again today. It’s a theme I’ve been writing about for years. The Scotiabank metals team put out their latest valuation check on the base metals mining space and the takeaway is that things are starting to look reasonable — but not cheap. Cu miners are now
Scotiabank says copper miners are finally getting interesting on valuation Read More »
High-yield 3.455% WI level at the time of the auction Tail 0.1 basis points versus 6 month average of -0.5 basis points Bid to cover 2.63X vs 6 mother average of 2.63X Dealers 9.81% versus 6 month average of 10.7% Directs 34.3% versus 6 month average of 32.0% Indirects 55.9% versus 6 month average of
U.S. Treasury auctions off $69 billion up to your notes at a high yield of 3.455% Read More »
The GBPUSD continues to trade within a relatively tight consolidation range. Yesterday, the pair reached a high of 1.35344 and a low of 1.3474. Today’s price action marginally extended beyond both extremes, with the low dipping to 1.3471 and the high pushing to 1.3536. However, despite those slight breaks, the overall 65-pip range remains narrow
Goods price inflation was lower than expected, possibly reflecting China exports Last week’s headline inflation was pretty much where we thought we’d be Pill: Bearing down on inflationary pressures remains necessary This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
BOE’s Bailey: Services prices inflation has not eased as much as we thought it would Read More »
Globally renowned broker XM, with over 15 million clients worldwide, has officially obtained a license from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya. This achievement marks a significant milestone in XM’s strategic expansion across Africa and reinforces its commitment to providing a secure and regulated trading environment for local investors. The granting of the CMA
XM Secures CMA License, Strengthening Its Regulatory Footprint in Kenya Read More »
The US Treasury will auction 2 year notes. Below is some color from BMO: Today’s $69 bn 2-year auction comes amid the bond-bullish tone-shift that has defined the last several weeks of price action in the Treasury market. While there isn’t a compelling outright discount with WI 2-year rates at 3.45%, there is a sizable
US Treasury to auction 2 year notes at the top of the hour. Read More »
The USDCAD is pushing higher in early North American trading and is now testing the February high at 1.37241. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the late-January high at 1.37383, followed by the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.37572. Yesterday, the pair
USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD buyers push the pair to the February high. Key target. Read More »
Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are rebounding today after yesterday’s declines of -1.04% and -1.13%, respectively. However, the recovery rally is already running into technical resistance, keeping the broader bias in question. For the NASDAQ, the 100-hour moving average — currently near 22,848 — is acting as a near-term ceiling. Price briefly pushed
Nasdaq and S&P indices higher on the day but both run into moving average resistance Read More »
Prior month -6 Details: Composite manufacturing index fell to -10 in February from -6 in January. Estimate was -8 Shipments dropped to -13 from -5 last month New orders decreased to -9 from -6 lat month Employment edged down to -7 from -6 last month Local business conditions index declined to -15 from -8 last
Richmond Fed composite index for February -10 versus -8 estimate Read More »
The USDCHF is trading in a tight consolidation today, confined to a modest 35-pip range as the market searches for its next directional catalyst. On the topside, price action has respected the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7769, with today’s high stalling just shy of that level at 0.7765. Sellers continue to
The US may be heading towards structurally higher unemployment, something the central bank cannot offset The Fed has maintained focus on economic outcomes across groups; this data is important in understanding labour market slack Hope that guardrails protecting Fed independence will be maintained Even with rising productivity, Fed needs to keep focus on inflation; responding
Fed’s Bostic: even with rising productivity, the Fed needs to keep focus on inflation Read More »
Prior was +1.4% House price index +0.5% m/m vs 0.0% prior Home price data from the FHFA: Prices +1.8% y/y vs +1.9% prior (revised to +2.1%) Prices 0.1% m/m vs +0.6% prior The US housing market’s deceleration has been the story for months now, and the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite continues to tell it clearly. The
US December CaseShiller 20-city house price index +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expected Read More »
The Swiss franc is not one that is talked about too often but as mentioned last week, it is certainly one key spot to take note of in the major currencies space. If not for geopolitical tensions, then at least in terms of added trade uncertainty now. That will just pile on the negativity to
Swiss franc to stay favourable amid safe haven allure Read More »
Home Depot’s fiscal fourth quarter results paint a familiar picture: the American homeowner remains cautious, selective, and increasingly uncertain about the macro backdrop. The retailer posted $38.2 billion in revenue for the quarter ended February 1, a 3.8% decline year-over-year — though roughly $2.5 billion of that gap is explained by a missing 14th week
Home Depot’s Q4 earnings tell the story of a “frozen home environment” Read More »
No Longer Market Complexity, But Solutions xPRO employs modern design philosophies and trading features that make the overall experience feel extremely powerful and intuitive. Instead of layering on more complex features, the system is designed with clarity and ease of use in mind – reimagining what a trading platform can do. Modern Front-End Design Designed
XBTFX Unveils xPRO — Created for Traders, Engineered for the Trading Future Read More »
The AUDUSD ran into willing sellers earlier in the session at the 200-hour moving average currently at 0.70681, with bears leaning against that level on three separate tests. That repeated rejection kept sellers firmly in short-term control and helped fuel a downside extension into the European session early US session. The move lower pushed the
AUDUSD Technicals: AUDUSD gets an intraday boost toward unchanged but remains contained Read More »
Prior was the lowest reading since 2014 at 84.5 Details: Present situation 120.0 vs 113.7 prior Expectations 72.0 vs 65.1 prior Jobs plentiful % vs 23.1% prior Jobs hard to get vs 20.8% prior The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index traced a dramatic arc through 2025, defined by a steep erosion of sentiment tied to
US February consumer confidence 91.2 vs 87.0 expected Read More »
Tech stocks wobble while consumer electronics thrive The US stock market showcases a mix of performances today, with notable fluctuations in the technology and consumer electronics sectors. Investors at InvestingLive.com should remain astute as dynamic market forces present both opportunities and risks. 📊 Technology Sector: Struggling for Stability Software and Semiconductors: A difficult day for
Tech stocks wobble while consumer electronics thrive Read More »
Reserve Bank of Australia economist Plumb Will continue to focus on quarterly CPI data for forecasting Have also been analysing underlying inflation measures using monthly CPI Remain focused on quarterly trimmed mean, any change some way off Aim to assess which underlying inflation measures from monthly data will be preferred in a post-quarterly CPI world
RBA Economist Plumb Focuses on CPI for Forecasting Read More »
Well, you can certainly bet that Beijing is smirking and if not laughing with glee over the whole situation. Their hard line stance against Trump looks to be paying off now as the US administration is forced to back down on the high tariffs applied against China. And one can reasonably assume that this will
China says it expects to hold trade talks with the US in the near future Read More »
The Bank of Korea is set to hold rates at 2.50% this week and through 2026 as FX and housing risks outweigh easing pressures. Summary: All 34 economists see BOK holding at 2.50% on February 26 Rates forecast to remain unchanged through 2026 Won weakness and housing risks curb easing appetite Inflation at 2.0% in
Bank of Korea meet Feb 26 – preview: To hold rates at 2.50% through 2026 (Reuters poll) Read More »
Gold and silver are both pushing higher today, moving above and away from their key short-term moving averages. Of the two, gold is showing the stronger technical profile. Gold reclaimed its 100-hour moving average last Wednesday and, importantly, has held above it since. Friday’s trade brought renewed upside momentum, and that strength has extended into
AI could trigger most significant reorganization of work in generations Rise in unemployment from AI may not indicate increased slack Current neutral rate possibly higher than pre-pandemic amid soaring AI investment Job displacement may precede job creation as AI transition unfolds Standard monetary policy may not address AI-driven unemployment without stoking inflation Overall unemployment still
Fed’s Cook: AI transition could have profound implications but it’s too early to know Read More »
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped below 6%, and to the lowest level since September 2025. The break marks a meaningful psychological and financial shift for the housing market. Not long ago, rates were pressing toward 7%, and just one year ago the same rate stood at 6.89%. That’s nearly a full percentage
Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since September 2025 Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer
The Japanese Yen sinks as PM Takaichi signals opposition to further BoJ rate hikes Read More »
Major US stock indices close lower as markets ponder uncertainty from tariffs RBA Economist Plumb Focuses on CPI for Forecasting Crude oil futures settle at $66.31. Buyers failed to keep momentum going. Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since September 2025 ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation in policy are in a good place Gold.
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 23 Feb: USD is mixed as markets react to tariff news Read More »
Fed’s Bostic: even with rising productivity, the Fed needs to keep focus on inflation Macro and geopolitical risks keep a lid on the Nasdaq: What’s next for the market? Australian Dollar in the spotlight ahead of the monthly CPI report. What’s next? Dollar may yet benefit from further US-Iran geopolitical escalation – BofA The Japanese
investingLive European FX news wrap: JPY down as Takaichi opposes further BoJ rate hikes Read More »
The dollar is having a bit of a choppy last few sessions, having to deal with geopolitical risks and the Supreme Court decision in shooting down Trump’s tariffs. The former is mostly centering around tensions between US and Iran right now. And despite uncertain and erratic policy handling by the US administration, the dollar isn’t
Dollar may yet benefit from further US-Iran geopolitical escalation – BofA Read More »
The dollar is mixed to start the North American session, with USDJPY surging on comments out of Japan while EURUSD and GBPUSD remain trapped in below-average trading ranges. Volatility is compressed in the European pairs, but expansion risk is building as key technical levels come into focus. USDJPY USDJPY is sharply higher after reports that
EURUSD/GBPUSD are little changed and looking for a shove. USDJPY is sharply higher. Why? Read More »
French business confidence fell roughly two points in February to 97 (unrounded 97.4) after the 99 (unrounded 99.3) reading in January. This puts a dent in the recovery optimism with this being the weakest estimate since October last year. Of note, the business climate continues to hold below the long-term average of 100 still. The
French business climate continues to struggle to start the new year Read More »
China’s central bank kept benchmark rates unchanged for a ninth month, balancing growth support with yuan stability. Summary: PBOC keeps 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5% Ninth consecutive month of unchanged benchmark rates Growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4, weakest since post-Covid reopening Yuan appreciation adds currency-stability considerations Policymakers balancing stimulus needs with
China holds loan prime rates steady as growth slows and yuan firms Read More »
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being a modest-sized one for EUR/USD at the 1.1765 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance, so the impact of the expiries is likely to be less pronounced. If anything, it could just act
FX option expiries for 24 February 10am New York cut Read More »
Fed moved too slowly to combat inflation in pandemic There’s a lot of blame to go around for pandemic inflation surge Services inflation not yet under control Best thing about recent inflation data shows possible waning of tariff impact Expects to see Fed rate cuts this year, but needs data to affirm outlook Rates can
Fed’s Goolsbee optimistic there can be more cuts this year but not until inflation lower Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to consolidate near monthly lows as weakness in software stocks has been putting a lid on the index. There’s also been lots of uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical side that’s been keeping the market on edge. The risks we had were the US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, the
Macro and geopolitical risks keep a lid on the Nasdaq: What’s next for the market? Read More »
Summary: Apple to begin assembling some Mac mini units in Houston in 2026 Production to take place at a Foxconn facility Move aimed at meeting local U.S. demand Majority of Mac mini output to remain in Asia Part of broader supply-chain diversification trend Apple plans to shift part of its Mac mini production to the
Apple to move some Mac mini production to Houston in 2026 – WSJ Read More »
The ninth consecutive month without a change. More on the LPRs, and why they don’t matter so much any more, here: Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – China and Japan return This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
People’s Bank of China sets 1 and 5 year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged Read More »
The onshore yuan hit a 2½-year high as USD/CNY fell below 6.90, with the PBOC signalling greater tolerance for strength. Summary: USD/CNY falls to 6.8954, lowest in 2½ years (since May 2023, so a bit longer) Onshore yuan (CNY) hits fresh multi-year high Shanghai Composite rises 0.8% on market reopen PBOC sets firmer fix at
USD/CNY drops to 2½-year low as onshore yuan surges Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer
Australian Dollar in the spotlight ahead of the monthly CPI report. What’s next? Read More »
This relates to their meeting last week here: BOJ governor Ueda says had regular information exchange with Japan prime minister Takaichi It was a short and quick meeting, with it lasting for less than 20 minutes at the time. Yet, it’s still enough for Takaichi to voice her concerns with Ueda on the matter. However,
Japanese yen falls on report that Takaichi voiced concerns to Ueda on BOJ rate hikes Read More »
Rabobank and UBS see the Swiss franc staying firm as safe-haven demand outweighs intervention risks. Summary: Rabobank and UBS expect CHF to stay well supported Safe-haven flows underpinned by strong Swiss fundamentals SNB easing or FX intervention seen as limited in impact EUR/CHF forecast trimmed to 0.91 (3-month, Rabobank), from 0.92 Strong franc a headwind
Swiss franc: Rabobank and UBS see CHF strength persisting (Rabo EUR/CHF 0.91 forecast) Read More »
China’s CSI300 and Shanghai Composite rallied on reopen as investors cheered the U.S. tariff ruling’s potential export relief. Summary: CSI300 +1.4%, Shanghai Composite +1.2% at open Rally follows nine-day mainland holiday Investors cite U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling as positive for exports Hang Seng reverses after Monday’s 2.5% surge Analysts see potential easing of U.S.–China
China stocks jump as U.S. tariff ruling boosts export hopes Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the French business confidence data which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US Consumer
What are the main events for today? Read More »
It’s a near empty economic calendar today. I was expecting the People’s Bank of China to set its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) yesterday but I was out by 24 hours. Its today. Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding
Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – China and Japan return Read More »
PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 526bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. after maturities net drain is 926.4bn yuan, largest in more than 4 months This
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9414 (vs. estimate at 6.9249) Read More »
The report says that Japan’s ministry of finance is considering revisions to the framework of its existing liquidity-enhancement auctions for JGBs. This is a move that is said to be intended to ease supply pressures on the super-long end of the curve in the bond market. For some context, the liquidity-enhancement auctions are ones that
Japan mulls revising liquidity-support JGB auctions to ease market pressure – report Read More »
Apple to move some Mac mini production to Houston in 2026 – WSJ China adds 20 Japanese firms to export control list, tightening dual-use trade China stocks jump as U.S. tariff ruling boosts export hopes USD/CNY drops to 2½-year low as onshore yuan surges China holds loan prime rates steady as growth slows and yuan
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tariff uncertainty persists, China rises Read More »
U.S. Treasury led January yen rate check to steady markets during Japan’s election turmoil, Nikkei reports. Summary: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led January yen “rate check” Action not requested by Japan, according to senior U.S. officials Move aimed at calming instability ahead of Japan’s lower house election Yen rebounded from ~158 to ~155 per
Bessent led yen rate check amid Japan election volatility – Nikkei Read More »
China moved to restrict dual-use exports to 20 Japanese entities, a fresh escalation in trade frictions amid already strained bilateral ties. Summary: China’s Commerce Ministry adds 20 Japanese entities to an export control “watch list” Measures ban exports of dual-use items to listed entities without licences Overseas parties also barred from re-transferring China-origin dual-use items
China adds 20 Japanese firms to export control list, tightening dual-use trade Read More »
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9249 – Reuters estimate Read More »
Crude oil futures are settling down $0.17 (-0.26%), but the broader technical picture remains constructive. Earlier today, price pushed to $67.28, the highest level since August 2025, before rotating lower into the close. Even with the pullback, crude is still up roughly 21% from the December low at $55.08, underscoring the strength of the recent
Crude oil futures settle at $66.31. Buyers failed to keep momentum going. Read More »
UBS sees gold climbing to USD 6,200 as geopolitics, Fed cuts and tight supply reinforce the bull case. Summary: UBS lifts conviction on gold, targets USD 6,200/oz in coming months Geopolitical risks seen staying elevated amid US–Iran tensions Fed easing cycle expected to continue, pressuring real yields Global gold demand tops 5,000 tonnes in 2025;
UBS targets USD 6,200 gold on Fed cuts and elevated geopolitical risk Read More »
After the Supreme Court curtailed key second-term tariffs, the Trump administration is turning to Section 232 to pursue new national security levies. Summary: Administration considering new Section 232 tariffs on six industries Follows 6–3 Supreme Court ruling striking down many levies New 232 tariffs separate from recently announced global 15% levy Steel and aluminium 232
Trump considers new Section 232 tariffs after Supreme Court ruling Read More »
January CPI is set to show electricity-driven headline strength and still-firm core inflation, keeping a May RBA hike in play. Summary: Headline CPI seen at 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted) in January Annual inflation forecast at 3.6–3.7% y/y Electricity prices a key upside driver; fuel partly offsets Trimmed mean seen at 0.3% m/m, annual pace steady
Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline Read More »
Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 gold by year-end, citing central bank buying and Fed cuts, while warning of higher volatility. Summary: Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $5,400 by end-2026 Central bank buying a key structural driver Fed rate cuts expected to spur investor allocations Additional private diversification flows pose upside risk Greater volatility likely as options
Goldman Sachs forecasts $5,400 gold on central bank demand and Fed cuts Read More »
The major US stock indices are closing down over 1% with the Dow industrial average down -1.66%. Shares of IBM tumbled -13.13% (that is a bad luck number). Shares of American Express were down -7.21%, and Visa fell -4.57%. Other big losers for the day with declines of over 5% include: CrowdStrike Holdings: -9.88% Snowflake:
Major US stock indices close lower as markets ponder uncertainty from tariffs Read More »
ECBs Lagarde: Inflation and policy are in a good place She adds: Completing her term is my baseline. Lagarde’s current term as President of the European Central Bank runs through October 2027. Last week, she said her baseline intention is to complete her full term and remain focused on delivering price stability and policy continuity
ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation in policy are in a good place Read More »
Business confidence in Belgium dropped significantly in February, erasing the modest gains seen in January and falling back to levels last seen in May 2025, according to the National Bank of Belgium’s latest survey released today. The overall synthetic curve fell to -13.7 from -8.8 in January, a 4.9-point decline that underscores the fragile nature
February Belgian business sentiment -13.7 vs -8.8 prior Read More »
The code word for the day is “Uncertainty.” Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs — their scope, timing, and impact on countries, industries, and index components — continues to weigh on markets. With little clarity on what policy will look like today or tomorrow, investors are de-risking. That uncertainty has pushed the broader indices sharply lower, with
What technical levels are in play for the broader US stock indices? Read More »
USDCAD moved lower alongside the broader USD in the early Asian-Pacific session, extending the decline toward the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.36517. That level — previously broken to the upside — acted as a key technical support zone. Sellers pushed into it, but downside momentum began to stall, signaling profit-taking and
The USDCAD bias is back to the upside after sellers could not sustain downside momentum Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices rallied all the way back to the resistance around the 66.50 level after a report from Axios suggested that a war between the U.S. and Iran appeared increasingly likely. Traders hedged into the weekend risk driving prices higher. There was no escalation over the weekend, on the contrary, we got some
US-Iran risk keeps oil prices underpinned; third round of talks on Thursday in focus Read More »
After the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s sweeping IEEPA tariffs on Friday, the White House immediately fired back, slapping a 15% global tariff on imports using Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Global Trade Alert took a look at US tariff rate changes based on a 15% universal tariff (with some exemptions)
A look at the winners and losers in the changes to Trump tariff levels Read More »
General business activity: +0.2 (prev. -1.2) Production: 12.5 (prev. 12.2) New orders: 11.1 (unchanged) Capacity utilization: 11.8 (prev. 6.8) Employment: 7.5 (unchanged) Hours worked: 6.1 (prev. 0.7) Finished goods prices paid: 17.9 (unchanged) Raw materials prices paid: 31.7 (prev. 36.7) Wages and benefits: 31.9 (prev. 17.4) Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, with
US February Dallas Fed manufacturing index +0.2 vs -1.2 prior Read More »
Well, the timing of this is quite uncanny. Amid all the speculation surrounding Lagarde’s future, this leak is now popping up and Lagarde is being placed under scrutiny for receiving about €140,000 a year from the BIS as her role as a board member. The Financial Times reports that some ECB employees have voiced their
The USD is lower but off the lowest level. EURUSD Technicals EURUSD moved higher in the Asian session, reclaiming the 100-hour MA at 1.1799, but the rally stalled near strong resistance at 1.1830–1.1832 — the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range (1.1830) and the falling 200-hour MA (1.1832). The failure to break that ceiling shifted
The USD is lower but off the lowest levels. What are the technicals telling traders? Read More »
Jan jobs data was a surprise and may be appropriate to hold rates if it continues in Feb Also possible that Jan jobs data was noise and would still argue for a cut in March if Feb jobs data is weak It is possible labor market has pivoted to a more sound footing after a
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1845 level. It isn’t one that holds too much technical significance but could act as a bit of a light ceiling to price action for the session ahead. That as it keeps
FX option expiries for 23 February 10am New York cut Read More »
Everything about how Europe has negotiated tariffs has been a disaster. They were the one jurisdiction with the market size and diversification to stand up to US tariffs and they folded in pathetic fashion despite the likelihood — now proven — that the US Supreme Court would strike down tariffs. Now they want a do-over
European Parliament postpones vote on EU-US trade deal – report Read More »
Prior was +2.7% Factory orders ex-transport +1.0% vs +0.2% prior Revisions to durable goods orders: Orders -1.4% vs -1.4% prelim Ex defense -2.4% vs -2.5% prelim Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.8% vs +0.6% prelim This is mostly in-line but note the small improvement in core US orders. It’s tough to find a signal in
US December factory orders -0.7% vs -0.6% expected Read More »
The U.S. stock market today presents a mixed picture, with some sectors surprising investors while others face pressure under unexpected dynamics. By examining a comprehensive heatmap of sectors, we see varying levels of performance impacting trading decisions and sentiments. 📊 Sector Overview Technology Sector: This sector is enduring a challenging day. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) is
Market dynamics today: Tech under pressure, healthcare and semiconductors gain traction Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer
GBPUSD rebounds as renewed tariff uncertainty weighs on the USD; Big picture unchanged Read More »
The immediate trigger was large scale liquidation that I noted at the time. But, these don’t occur with no context. SUmmary: Bitcoin drops ~5% in a short window, slipping under US$65,000 Break of key technical support accelerates selling pressure Large holder (“whale”) flows to exchanges increase supply Broader tariff and macro uncertainty weighs on risk
Here’s why Bitcoin dropped sharply back under US$65K. No, its not a tariff tumble! Read More »
It will be a light week in terms of scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Monday, the U.S. will release factory orders m/m and on Tuesday attention will be on the U.K.’s Monetary Policy Report hearings and the U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing figures. Wednesday will bring inflation
Market outlook for the week of 23rd-27th February Read More »
The news from Friday was of Trump’s tariffs found illegal: investingLive Americas market news wrap: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs Trump later replaced them with MOAR tariffs: That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US equities are dropping, hard, in Sunday evening trade Read More »
The report says that the EU is set to put on hold the ratification process of its trade deal with the US after the latest changes to the US administration’s tariffs policy. Adding that they will be seeking out more details from Washington on what their plans are with the new tariffs in place. I
EU reportedly to press pause on US trade deal approval amid latest tariffs kerfuffle Read More »
Headlines: The biggest winners and losers from the latest US tariffs shift US customs say will halt collection of IEEPA tariffs on 24 February US president Trump: The Supreme Court tariffs ruling has given me more power than before EU reportedly to press pause on US trade deal approval amid latest tariffs kerfuffle Is this
To recap, the biggest news hitting markets since Friday is the Supreme Court shooting down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs from April last year. The 6-3 decision now sees those tariffs, enacted under the IEEPA, are deemed unconstitutional/illegal. As such, the US administration has to halt collecting duties related to the tariffs imposed through that. So, what’s
The biggest winners and losers from the latest US tariffs shift Read More »
US and Iranian negotiators are poised to meet in Geneva after Tehran submits a detailed nuclear proposal. Officials describe the talks as potentially the last diplomatic window before the Trump administration considers military action, though interim arrangements remain possible. Summary: US and Iranian negotiators expected to meet in Geneva Thursday Trump administration awaiting detailed Iranian
Update: US-Iran nuclear talks set for Thursday as Trump weighs military option Read More »
Structural ias Turns Bearish as Volatility Expands. Key Reaction Levels to Watch for are at $1,525 and $1,455 Ethereum futures have shifted from digestion to expansion, and the structure has weakened meaningfully across multiple timeframes. After a sharp downside impulse on the 4-hour chart and visible pressure on the daily footprint, the broader weekly structure
Ethereum Futures Breakdown Accelerates Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got a boost on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The initial reaction saw gold coming under pressure but eventually the market turned around, and we reached a new monthly high as Trump imposed new tariffs under a different law. Overall, not much has changed on the
Is this finally the time for gold to reach new record highs after the tariffs ruling? Read More »
China is back from its week long ‘Spring Break’ Lunar New Year holiday today. The calendar is light. We’ve had some NZ data already. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Economic and event calendar in Asia 23 February 2026 – Japanese markets are closed today Read More »
From the man himself: “The supreme court (will be using lower case letters for a while based on a complete lack of respect!) of the United States accidentally and unwittingly gave me, as President of the United States, far more powers and strength than I had prior to their ridiculous, dumb, and very internationally divisive
US president Trump: The Supreme Court tariffs ruling has given me more power than before Read More »
At the balance and at first glance, the latest developments should see a greater reduction in the overall average tariffs rate in the US. If so, that should eventually have a negative impact on price pressures and helps with the narrative of softening inflation and more Fed rate cuts. But again, it’s a lot to
US futures hold caution as market players digest tariffs mess Read More »
Bitcoin. Not just this though, ETH down 4.5% also, whole crypto complex getting hit. Daily chart looks headed back to the lows: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Bitcoin smashed lower, huge liquidations reported Read More »
Oil opened slightly lower in early trade as markets balanced escalating Iran–US tensions against renewed nuclear talks and rising tariff concerns that threaten global demand. Summary: Oil opens slightly softer in Sunday evening Globex trade Iran–US conflict risk underpins geopolitical risk premium Fresh nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday temper escalation fears Rising tariff concerns weigh
The big news since Friday and over the weekend is of course Trump’s tariffs mess. The Supreme Court ruled against the US president in a landmark 6-3 decision, stating that Trump exceeded his constitutional authority by unilaterally imposing broad global tariffs under the guise of national emergency powers. The tariffs announced in April last year
US customs say will halt collection of IEEPA tariffs on 24 February Read More »
Prior 87.6 Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.3 expected Prior 85.7 Expectations 90.5 vs 90.3 expected Prior 89.5; revised to 89.6 The headline reading is a six-month high as German business morale picks up in the early stages of the new year. That comes alongside an improvement in both the current conditions and expectations/outlook index. The
Germany February Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 88.4 expected Read More »
Services CPI has been slightly concerning in recent months Services CPI has not fallen as quickly or as far as hoped I am looking for service price inflation to normalise along with wage growth this year I have become more reassured that we are proceeding towards inflation normalisation at a reasonable pace Weaker than expected
Summary: FT reports Iran agreed €500m arms deal with Russia in December Contract covers 500 Verba MANPADS launchers and 2,500 9M336 missiles Deliveries scheduled in tranches from 2027 to 2029 Deal negotiated between Rosoboronexport and Iran’s defence ministry representative Tehran formally requested systems in July Earlier: NYT: Trump weighs limited Iran strikes as nuclear deal
Summary: NYT reports Trump weighing limited US airstrikes on Iran in coming days Potential targets: IRGC, nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure Broader campaign, including pressure on Khamenei, possible if strikes fail Parallel diplomacy continues alongside military planning Proposal from IAEA chief Rafael Grossi could allow limited enrichment for medical fuel Framework would let Iran retain token
NYT: Trump weighs limited Iran strikes as nuclear deal talks continue. In coming days. Read More »
The USD is heavy in Asia trade on the new tariff debacle. Japan is closed today for a holiday. China is NOT back from its holiday today. I thought they were but I’ll have to wait until Tuesday, February 24, 2026. HK shares are up, Hang Seng +1.4% or so. This article was written by
The USD has continued its slide in Asia trade. USD/JPY is down a big figure. Read More »
Prior +1.2% HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Prior +1.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the details, services inflation is the one that is keeping higher at 2.5% last month. Meanwhile, goods price inflation is actually recording a -0.2% annual change. Overall, that leaves core annual inflation at 1.7% in
Italy January final CPI +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer
EURUSD jumps above 1.18 as latest tariff woes weigh on the US Dollar. What’s next? Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is going to be the German IFO survey. The IFO is correlated with the German Composite PMI given that they measure basically the same thing. The Business Climate index is expected to tick higher to 88.3 vs 87.6 prior, but whatever the data, the market reaction
What are the main events for today? Read More »
The USD is lower in early Asia trade. Its still VERY early, with thin liquidity, thinner than usual, due to the Japanese marekts being closed today for holiday. China is back, though, returning from their week-long Spring break / Lunar New Year holiday. USD down. – The Supreme Court ruling striking down much of President
USD trading lower across major FX Read More »
China’s commerce ministry says it is assessing the Supreme Court tariff ruling and urges the US to lift unilateral tariffs, arguing measures like reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs violate trade rules and US law. The statement lands ahead of an early-April Trump–Xi meeting window. Summary: China’s commerce ministry says it is conducting a “full assessment” of
China urges US to drop unilateral tariffs after Supreme Court ruling Read More »
Goldman raised its 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI forecasts to $60/$56 on tighter OECD stocks, while maintaining a 2026 surplus assumption. The bank sees firmer prices in 2027 but flags sanctions relief in Iran/Russia as a key downside risk. Summary: Goldman raises 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI by $6 to $60/$56 Assumes no Iran-related supply disruption and still sees
Goldman Sachs raises 2026 oil forecast, sees Brent at $60 by Q4 Read More »
China urges US to drop unilateral tariffs after Supreme Court ruling Ethereum Futures Breakdown Accelerates Here’s why Bitcoin dropped sharply back under US$65K. No, its not a tariff tumble! BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai Goldman Sachs raises 2026 oil forecast, sees Brent at $60 by Q4 Bitcoin smashed lower,
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD and crypto slammed lower Read More »
Former BOJ board member Sakurai says a renewed yen slide could trigger a March rate hike, though April remains the more logical timing. He sees the policy rate rising toward 1.75% over coming years but warns against tightening too quickly. Via an interview with Reuters. Summary: Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai says March hike
BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai Read More »
I’ll have more to come on this separately … ADDED, ok, details here: BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability
Summary: Rolls-Royce is expected to announce a fresh share buyback of up to £1.5bn (~$2bn) with annual results this week, Sky News reported The company has not commented Rolls-Royce already reinstated payouts last year, unveiling a £1bn buyback alongside results Management has been running additional capital returns, including a £200m “interim” buyback ahead of FY25
Report: Rolls-Royce to return up to $2bn via new share repurchase Read More »
Well, the news of note, from Friday, is of course: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs Karen was quick to throw a tantrum: That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% Guide to early FX rates, not signficantly changed from late Friday I’ll be back with weekend news soon. This article
Monday open indicative forex prices, 23 February 2026 Read More »
ECB’s Lagarde urges clarity as US tariff turmoil returns. Summary: Lagarde warns renewed US tariff uncertainty risks fresh disruption Says businesses need clarity on trade and investment rules Hopes new tariff plans are “sufficiently thought through” and constitutional Notes consumers ultimately bore the cost of prior tariffs Defends central bank independence amid US political backdrop
Lagarde warns new US tariffs risk renewed disruption to global trade Read More »
Ethereum traders are seeing something unusual beneath the surface. On Feb 20, options flow across two Ethereum-linked ETFs told very different stories. One reflected institutional accumulation, the other showed retail caution. When flows diverge like this, it often matters more than the headline sentiment label. Let’s break it down. But first, the backdrop music from
Trump is raising the tariff he just announced yesterday from 10% to 15%. He announced on Truth Social: Based on a thorough, detailed, and complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American decision on Tariffs issued yesterday, after MANY months of contemplation, by the United States Supreme Court, please let this statement serve
That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% Read More »
The NYT reports: President Trump is planning to invoke new trade authorities in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning his sweeping tariffs, according to two people familiar with his plans, potentially including a new, across-the-board tariff on U.S. trading partners. This is no surprise, many government officials have said this was coming. The report
Trump planning to invoke new authorities Read More »
Fed’s Logan: I’m not fully convinced we are on a path all the way to 2% Policy is well positioned to deal with risks Worried about demand outstripping supply Is cautiously optimistic that economy on path for a return to target One of the biggest uncertainties is the tech sector On the labor side, doesn’t
Fed’s Logan: There is now more inflation uncertainty due to tariff decision Read More »
Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffs US Q4 advance GDP +1.4% vs +3.0% expected US December PCE inflation +2.9% vs +2.8% expected Trump says he will invoke 10% Section 122 global tariff Atlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for the 1st quarter 3.1% University of Michigan sentiment index 56.6 versus 57.3 estimate Manufacturing PMI for
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs Read More »
We are stepping into what might be the most consequential week of the Q4 earnings season. The spotlight is squarely on the AI complex, but we also have a massive slate of consumer and enterprise tech names ready to set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Here is the breakdown of the key
Huge earnings week ahead: NVIDIA’s moment of truth, eyes on beaten up software stocks Read More »
I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system. Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about
Gold is set for its highest-ever weekly close Read More »
Comments from Trump and what he’s hinting at: “Proud of the justices that voted in favour” and “no way anyone can argue with those who dissented” The dissent was Kavanaugh, joined by Thomas and Alito. Kavanaugh’s dissent argued for a foreign affairs exception to the major questions doctrine and read IEEPA’s text more broadly. The
Trump says “ashamed of certain members of the court” Read More »
Tech struggles as communication services edge up: A mixed market day Today’s US stock market presents a dynamic landscape with tech giants faltering while the communication services sector displays resilience. Here’s a thorough breakdown of sector performances, significant movers, and the overall market mood shaping the day. 📉 Technology Sector: Pulling Back Software and Semiconductors:
Tech struggles as communication services edge up: A mixed market day Read More »
The NASDAQ index has rebounded in the wake of the Supreme Court decision, pushing to an intraday high of 22,948.87. That rally brought the index to within roughly 13–14 points of the falling 100-hour moving average (currently at 22,961.75) — a level that has attracted early selling interest. Sellers leaned against the moving average on
Nasdaq Technical: Nasdaq stalls at the falling 100 hour MA Read More »
The Atlanta Fed’s initial GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth came in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a solid start to the year. At the same time, the advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed growth of just 1.4% — a
Atlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for the 1st quarter 3.1% Read More »
Prior was +2.8% PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Core PCE Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.9% expected Prior +2.8% Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Consumer spending and income for December: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.5% (revised
US December PCE inflation +2.9% vs +2.8% expected Read More »
A Supreme Court decision on key Trump tariffs is expected in the current opinion window (with Feb 20 highlighted), and JPMorgan’s trading desk outlines sharply different equity outcomes depending on whether tariffs are upheld, struck down, or swiftly replaced. With ~$124bn in customs duties through January, fiscal incentives may reinforce rapid “replacement” efforts if IEEPA
Supreme Court tariff ruling nears; JPM maps S&P 500 swings across four scenarios Read More »
Market action in the wake of the tariff decision has been choppy. There aren’t many tariff/Supreme Court experts on trading desks, so markets are understandably confused. Trump and other administration officials have said many times that they have other opportunities to reconstitute tariffs. The initial reaction in markets largely suggests they’re taking that at face
Markets struggle to make sense of the tariff news, Trump to speak soon Read More »
The USD initially moved lower following the Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision striking down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariff authority. The greenback sold off in the immediate aftermath as markets reacted to the removal of tariff-related price pressures. However, the reaction has been mixed across asset classes. U.S. yields have pushed higher — with the 10-year
The USD has moved marginally lower after the Supreme Court decision Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for
Indian Rupee weakness looks to be resuming after a key technical breakout. What’s next? Read More »
Trump says the Supreme Court decision is a ‘disgrace’ and that he will find other ways to impose them, according to CNN. The thing is, IEEPA tariffs are immediately voided and that’s 60% of tariff revenue. I’d imagine there is rush to get those over the border and that’s going to create a huge trade
Trump says he has a backup plan for tariffs Read More »
There is just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 level. Similar to yesterday, the expiries may factor into play in acting as a magnet for price action during the session ahead. However, the impact of the one for
FX option expiries for 20 February 10am New York cut Read More »
The EURUSD is keeping the bias lean to the downside ahead of the US GDP which will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The Q4 GDP is expected to show a rise of 3.0% with the following details: GDP Sales Advance 2.6% vs 4.5% prior Deflator 2.9% Core PCE price advances: 2.6% PCE Advanced 2.8%
EURUSD Technicals: The EURUSD leans to the downside ahead of GDP Read More »
Manufacturing flash index 51.2 versus 52.6. Prior month 52.4 Services PMI flash for February 52.3 versus 53.0 estimate. Prior 52.7. Composite 52.3 versus 53.0 last month The good news is that each of the a indices were above the 50.0 level indicating growth. The bad news is that each of the estimates were below the
Manufacturing PMI for February 51.2 vs 52.6 estimate Read More »
Prior 1.3% revised to 1.2% Retail sales ex auto – +0.1% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month revised to 1.6% from 1.7% Sales C$70.0b Advance retail sale for January is expected at 1.5% Details: Retail sales fell -0.4% to $70.0B in December 3 of 9 subsectors declined, led by motor vehicle & parts dealers Core retail
Canada retail sales for December -0.4% versus -0.5% expected Read More »
Key Points for crude oil traders and investors: Crude oil futures have broken out of a classic daily bull flag pattern. The $65 area on crude is now a key line that separates strength from failure. UCO is forming higher lows near $25, showing buyers are stepping in on dips. As long as support holds,
Crude Oil Breakout: What the Bull Flag Means for Oil Traders and UCO Buyers Read More »
Summary: Westpac says January’s jobs data show a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, but participation declines are doing most of the work. Underlying hiring remains subdued, and a rebound in participation could lift unemployment back toward 4.5% in coming months. — Westpac says Australia’s January labour force report paints a steadier picture than the volatility
Westpac warns Australia’s unemployment rate masks soft demand and falling participation Read More »
New Zealand January 2026 international trade data. NZD/USD not a lot changed on this, around 0.5975. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
New Zealand January 2026 trade data, exports and imports not as large as in December Read More »
Final Q3 GDP was +4.4% Consumer spending (PCE):+2.4% GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.2% vs +2.6% expected GDP price index (GDP deflator): vs +2.9% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +2.7% vs +2.6% expected Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): 2025 annual GDP at about 2.23% Contributions to GDP in percentage points: Government -0.9 vs
US Q4 advance GDP +1.4% vs +3.0% expected Read More »
The group is the one managing the infamous Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), which provides fiscal budget projections and economic analysis of major US legislation without advocacy. And by their estimates, the US could owe over $175 billion in tariff refunds should the Supreme Court rule against Trump’s broad emergency tariffs. As a reminder, the
US tariffs refund could top $175 billion if the Supreme Court rules against Trump Read More »
The major US indices are opening mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.37%. The S&P index trading above and below unchanged, and the NASDAQ index up around 0.20%. As a reminder The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to release opinions this morning, with announcements typically issued at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on scheduled opinion
US stocks mixed in early trading Read More »
In a 6-3 decision, the US Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. “The Government thus concedes, as it must, that the President enjoys no inherent authority to impose tariffs during peacetime,” the Supreme Court ruled. “If Congress were to relinquish that weapon
Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffs Read More »
Blue Owl permanently restricted withdrawals from its $1.6bn private-debt fund, selling $1.4bn of loans at 99.7% of par and planning a 30% NAV distribution in Q1. El-Erian questioned whether it’s an early warning sign for private credit, though not a 2008-scale threat. Summary: $1.6bn Blue Owl Capital Corp. II fund permanently restricts investor withdrawals. Blue
El-Erian flags private credit ‘canary in the coal mine’ as fund freezes redemptions Read More »
Japan’s February flash PMIs strengthened across the board, with composite output rising to 53.8 and manufacturing gaining momentum. Export demand surged, backlogs hit record highs and price pressures firmed, while business confidence improved. Summary: Composite PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.1), fastest growth since May 2023. Services PMI: 53.8 (Jan 53.7), quickest pace since May 2024. Manufacturing
Japan flash PMIs rise in February; composite hits 53.8, exports surge Read More »
University of Michigan sentiment index for February final: Sentiment 56.6 versus 57.3 current conditions 56.6 versus 57.7 expectations 56.6 versus 56 6 preliminary 5 year inflation 3.3% versus 3.4% preliminary 1 year inflation 3.4% versus 3.5% preliminary From Consumer Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment stagnated this month with very little change, just 0.2 index points higher
University of Michigan sentiment index 56.6 versus 57.3 estimate Read More »
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 57 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 49 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 7 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 8 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 8 bps
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Read More »
The bounce here sees silver trade up by over 3% today to now above $81. It’s a solid recovery from the lows on Tuesday, which saw a dip just under the $72 level at the time. The price swings this week are not as volatile as what we’ve seen in late January to early February
Silver climbs back up to one-week highs but dip buyers still have work to do Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after another slate of strong US data this week and the US-Iran tensions potentially supporting the greenback. The market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for
Headlines: USDJPY on track to revisit the intervention level as Japanese Yen lacks bullish catalysts Silver climbs back up to one-week highs but dip buyers still have work to do Crude Oil Breakout: What the Bull Flag Means for Oil Traders and UCO Buyers US tariffs refund could top $175 billion if the Supreme Court
investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steady on mixed markets, EU and UK PMI beat Read More »
Prior 49.1 Services PMI 53.4 vs 52.4 expected Prior 52.4 Composite PMI 53.1 vs 52.3 expected Prior 52.1 Key Points: Business activity growth ticks up to four-month high in February Comment: Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Hurray, German industry is growing again.
Germany February flash manufacturing PMI 50.7 vs 49.5 expected Read More »
Prior +0.4% Retail sales +4.5% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.5%; revised to +1.9% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +2.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +5.5% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.1%; revised to +2.5% That’s an impressive beat in terms of the monthly figure, with the headline being
UK January retail sales +1.8% vs +0.2% m/m expected Read More »
Prior 51.6 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.5 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.3 The most notable thing here is the rebound in the manufacturing sector, with the reading there being a 44-month high. That is largely led by the recovery in Germany, which saw its industry return to expansion territory
Eurozone February flash services PMI 51.8 vs 51.9 expected Read More »
MUFG says recent dollar gains driven by stronger U.S. data and cautious Fed minutes are unlikely to last. Political uncertainty and concerns about Fed independence under President Trump may keep investor sentiment toward the greenback fragile. Summary: MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says recent U.S. dollar strength is unlikely to be sustained. Durable goods, housing and industrial
USD gains on strong US data unlikely to last; policy uncertainty, political risks to cap Read More »
Despite the Fed staying in pause mode to start the year, market expectations are still leaning towards more rate cuts down the road. And that is reflected by the pricing in Fed funds futures as well. Currently, we’re still seeing traders price in ~57 bps of rate cuts by year-end. The recent solid US economic
Fed to resume rate cuts probably in June with more later in the year – ANZ Read More »
Will not pursue reckless fiscal policy that undermines market confidence To push bold investment through multi-year budgets and long-term funds The necessary spending will be funded through the initial budget as much as possible Will steadily lower the debt-to-GDP ratio and restore fiscal sustainability To maintain market trust and clarify concrete fiscal indicators Will ensure
Japan prime minister Takaichi says will steadily restore fiscal sustainability Read More »
Prior 54.0 Manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.8 Composite PMI 53.9 vs 53.2 expected Prior 53.7 Key Findings: Rebound in UK private sector business activity continues in February, but job losses persist Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The early PMI data for February bring further signs of
UK February flash services PMI 53.9 vs 53.5 expected Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Given the market pricing, we will likely need surprisingly soft data for the Eurozone to trigger a decent market reaction as traders could start betting on rate cuts. Better than expected data is
What are the main events for today? Read More »
Prior 48.4 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 51.0 expected Prior 51.2 Composite PMI 49.9 vs 49.7 expected Prior 49.1 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
France February flash services PMI 49.6 vs 49.2 expected Read More »
Prior -0.2% The much softer reading here owes a lot to base effects, in particular the impact of energy prices. That is also the main reason for the drag on the year-on-year reading, which was 3.0% lower than January 2025. When energy prices are excluded, producer prices in January 2026 rose by 0.6% compared with
Germany January PPI -0.6% vs +0.3% m/m expected Read More »
INR tests 91 but steadies as suspected RBI selling checks holiday-thinned, NDF-led pressure. Summary: INR last: 90.9450 on the interbank matching system after briefly slipping past 91. Traders said the Reserve Bank of India likely sold U.S. dollars before the local spot open to prevent a cleaner break above 91/$. Offshore 1-month NDF had pointed
Lagarde signals intent to finish ECB term, amid politically sensitive succession chatter. Westpac warns Australia’s unemployment rate masks soft demand and falling participation FX INTERVENTION: Reports the Reserve Bank of India is selling USD/INR to support the rupee Goldman: Gold to grind higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026 on strong demand NZD, AUD fall as RBNZ
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD and NZD down, INR up Read More »
Japan inflation cools sharply in January, easing near-term pressure on the BoJ. Summary: Headline CPI y/y: 1.5% (exp. 1.6%, prev. 2.1%) — lowest since March 2022. Core CPI (ex fresh food) y/y: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.4%). Core-core CPI (ex food & energy) y/y: 2.6% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.9%). National CPI ex fresh food &
Japan inflation slows to 1.5% in January, core measures ease. What will the BoJ think? Read More »
Ether futures analysis: medium-term structure stabilizing after heavy two-sided trade Ether futures are trading near $1,960 after a volatile stretch that saw sharp downside pressure followed by responsive buying. The broader crypto space remains sensitive to macro headlines and equity sentiment, but ETH is currently attempting to stabilize rather than extend lower. What underlying crypto
Ethereum Analysis Today Read More »
For months on end, it has been hard to ignore the political side of things when viewing the Japanese yen outlook. The snap election results earlier this month continued to put the focus on that, with intervention risks as high as ever at the moment. The general feeling is that the yen is ready to
It turns out not everyone has a bearish view on the Japanese yen Read More »
RBNZ signals steady hand on rates, nudging NZD lower and dragging AUD with it. Summary: NZD and AUD both fall, with Kiwi leading declines during Asian trade. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr (Breman remarks cited) says inflation likely already back inside target band in Q1. RBNZ confident inflation will return to the 2% midpoint within 12
NZD, AUD fall as RBNZ says inflation returning to target, no preset path Read More »
Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal she expects to complete her term as ECB president through October 2027, dampening speculation of an early departure that could allow France to influence the succession before its 2027 election. Summary: Christine Lagarde told The Wall Street Journal (gated) she expects to serve as ECB president until October 2027.
This is just a post with the data. I’ll have more, analysis and implications posted separately. Note that the 1.5% overall pace is below 2% for the first time since March 2022. The latest on the BoJ: BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY JBA chief says
Goldman sees gold grinding higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026, with upside skew from diversification. Summary: Goldman expects central bank gold buying to re-accelerate in 2026 at the pace seen in 2025. This is in a conservative base case that assumes no additional private-sector diversification beyond current trends. Goldman’s core view: central bank demand plus private
Goldman: Gold to grind higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026 on strong demand Read More »
US December trade balance -70.3B vs -55.5B expected Initial jobless claims 206K vs 225K estimate US February Philly Fed Business Index +16.3 vs +8.5 expected Atlanta Fed GDPNow final reading 3.0% vs 3.6% prior EIA weekly crude oil inventories -9014K vs +2149K expected Trump: Good talks being had with Iran US January pending home sales
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Rising US trade deficit dims GDP forecast Read More »
It’s a busy session ahead with central bank speakers scheduled. We’ll also get inflation data from Japan. Expectations are rising for a near term rate hike: BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY JBA chief says reasonable chance of BOJ rate hike to come in March or
Trump is weighing a limited strike on Iran as leverage for a nuclear deal, with escalation options on the table. Summary: The Wall Street Journal (gated) reports President Trump is weighing an initial limited strike on Iran. The opening assault could target select military or government sites within days. The aim would be to pressure
Here are some numbers to consider: Shares of Deere & Company are up 12% today and 44% so far this year Shares of CAT rose 60% last year and are up 31% year-to-date. Caterpillar and Deere don’t rally on order books. The jump in DE stock today came on a quarterly earnings beat on basically
What are the heavy-equipment maker stocks telling us? Read More »
The oil market continues to signal a rising chance of US military intervention in Iran. Oil had been bouncing around in a range of $62-$66 as headlines around Iran shifted the narrative but today crude broke out. It’s up $1.34 to $66.53 and has simultaneously broke above the October high. Oil briefly bounced around today
WTI crude oil settles at the highest since August on Iran war fears Read More »
NQ (Nasdaq Futures) analysis: Energy heats up, Tech cools down as rotation pressure builds Nasdaq futures (NQ) are trading around 24,844, modestly lower on the session. The broader S&P 500 heatmap shows internal divergence rather than broad liquidation, while crude oil futures (CL) are trading near $66.46, up about +2.17% on the day, confirming renewed
Nasdaq Today (Now) Read More »
Canadian Tire reported Q4 numbers today and the read-through on the Canadian consumer is clear: they’re still spending and there are no indications of weakness. Comp sales came in at +4.2% across all banners, with SportChek ripping at +9.5% and Mark’s up 7.2%. Normalized EPS jumped 38% to $4.47. What’s interesting from the call this
Canadian consumer still spending — Canadian Tire Q4 confirms resilience Read More »
Prior was +8530K Gasoline -3213K vs -284K exp Distillates -4566K vs -1440K exp Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.4% exp The huge swings in this report continue. The API data from late yesterday showed: Crude -609K Gasoline -312K Distillates -1560K WTI crude oil was up $1.46 to $66.65 per barrel. The market is focused on the
EIA weekly crude oil inventories -9014K vs +2149K expected Read More »
The Minneapolis Fed President is something of a hawk lately and is out with some comments: Fed is close on both mandates Crypto is “utterly useless” AI could be a boost to productivity in the next 5-10 years Fed is cautious about using AI internally Fed is committed to making the best decisions based on
Fed’s Kashkari: Labor market is softer but still “decent to pretty good” Read More »
Walmart shares are indicated flat in the pre-market despite what looks like a solid beat on the top and bottom line. The quarter itself was strong — but the guidance is pointing to a deceleration. Shares initially fell on the weaker guidance but the CFO said it’s prudent to start the year with conservative guidance
Walmart Q4: Consumer still spending but the guidance is the story for the Fed Read More »
There were weeks of breathless commentary about 5% GDP growth in the US in the fourth quarter and now here we are — less than 24 hours from the release — and the tracker has been revised all the way down to 3.0%. The quarter started off with a super-strong trade balance reading for October
Atlanta Fed GDPNow final reading 3.0% vs 3.6% prior Read More »
Prior week 229K versus 227K previously reported Initial jobless claims (Feb 14): 206K vs 225K estimate (down 23K vs prior week revised 229K; prior revised up 2K from 227K) 4-week avg initial claims: 219K (Down↓1K; prior week revised up 500 from 219.5K to 220K) Continuing claims (Feb 7): 1.869M vs 1.860M (up 17K vs prior
Initial jobless claims 206K vs 225K estimate Read More »
Prior was -56.8B Goods trade balance -86.04B This is a big part of tomorrow’s GDP release and we will see updated trackers later today. Due to the recent lapse in federal funding, both the Advance Economic Indicators Report (which includes the advance goods trade balance, originally scheduled for January 28) and the full U.S. International
US December trade balance -70.3B vs -55.5B expected Read More »
Trump says: We have to make a meaningful deal with Iran It has to be a meaningful deal or something bad will happen Confirms he ordered 22 more B2 bombers ordered to Middle East We will find out about Iran in about 10 days We may have to take it a step further on Iran
Trump: Good talks being had with Iran Read More »
Prior was -9.3% Pending sales index vs 71.8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
US January pending home sales -0.8% vs +1.3% expected Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq failed to rally on the slightly soft US CPI report last Friday and continued to range. We now have another major risk for the market as a potential US-Iran war could trigger a big selloff. In fact, we got a report from Axios yesterday suggesting that a war between the U.S.
The potential US-Iran war is a major risk for the Nasdaq; weekend risk to cap gains Read More »
Tech giants falter while consumer defensive stocks rally Sector Overview The US stock market is encountering a mixed session today, as tech giants experience downturns, while consumer defensive stocks shine brightly. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, is facing challenges with widespread declines, heavily impacting market stalwarts. 📉 Semiconductors: Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel
Tech giants falter while consumer defensive stocks rally Read More »
Prior was -2.59 Exports 65.63B vs 63.95B prior Imports 66.93B vs 66.53B prior In December, Canada’s merchandise exports increased 2.6%, while imports were up 0.6%. That led to a halving of Canada’s trade deficit in the month. StatsCAn noted that the 1.3 cent increase in the loonie in December was the largest in 11 months
Canada December trade balance -1.31B vs -2.59B prior Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold started to find some footing yesterday as risks of a US-Iran conflict increased. In fact, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.
Renewed US-Iran tensions lift gold prices as traders hedge into the weekend risk Read More »
The present situation catch up is that Switzerland is squaring off against deflationary pressures once again. While not quite yet reaching deflation territory, the worries are mounting as inflation pressures have fallen off dramatically in the second half of last year. Core prices are still hanging in there but it feels like only a matter
US-Iran tensions most untimely for the SNB Read More »
We are getting close to some sense of where monetary policy is balanced between the inflation objective and full employment The unemployment rate has gone up and that’s very much of a concern On January inflation data: these are good numbers from headline perspective and also from core With respect to core inflation, not quite
BoE’s Mann: The unemployment rate has gone up and that’s very much of a concern Read More »
Japanese firms remain wary of fiscal discipline under Takaichi, even as concerns over China tensions ease. Summary: Two-thirds of Japanese firms express concern about PM Takaichi’s fiscal discipline Markets rattled by proposed temporary food tax suspension IMF urges fiscal restraint to maintain bond market stability Fewer firms now fear business fallout from China tensions Weaker
Two-thirds of Japanese firms concerned about Takaichi fiscal discipline Read More »
The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes quietly remove December’s “2% in 2028” timing, underscoring uncertainty. Summary: January minutes drop the explicit “2% by 2028” timing that appeared in December Staff now say inflation is “slightly higher, on balance” than the December forecast Tariff effects are expected to wane around mid-year, with inflation then
What the Fed didn’t say: January minutes omit the date inflation returns to 2% Read More »
RBNZ sees the cutting cycle as done, but weak consumption and sticky inflation keep risks two-sided. Summary: RBNZ’s Silk says the central scenario is the easing cycle is over, with risks both ways Downside risk: weak consumption and a softer household recovery Upside risk: sticky inflation, meaning tightening remains possible if pressures persist RBNZ says
RBNZ’s Silk: easing cycle over, but weak demand and sticky inflation pose two-way risks Read More »
The FOMC minutes stated that Jerome Powell was selected to serve as Chair for 2026, with the appointment lasting until a successor is formally chosen. In practical terms, that means Powell would continue to preside over the FOMC, including at meetings later than May, provided he remains a Federal Reserve Governor and the incoming Chair
FOMC minutes showed Powell to remain as Chair for all of 2026. Gridlock, here’s why. Read More »
A steady 4.1% jobless rate and another fall in total unemployment should keep rate hike risk priced, supporting AUD and holding front-end yields firm. It doesn’t force a March move, but it keeps the RBA’s finger on the trigger. Summary: Employment rose 17.8k in January, broadly in line with expectations Full-time jobs surged 50.5k, offset
The report mostly highlights how the US has been pressuring Canada on multiple fronts to get what they want out of any deal. And the crux of it mostly underscores the notion that the US administration currently views that the USMCA pact is not one that is set in stone. That being it is a
Trump reportedly mulls shaking up North American trade pact, leaving Canada on the outs Read More »
BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY NVDA Stock Analysis Shows It Is Stronger Than You Might Think RBNZ to increase monetary policy decisions to eight per year from 2027 Mega-cap tech most under-owned in 17 years, says Morgan Stanley South Korea KOSPI hits record high as
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tight Australian job market lifts AUD Read More »
Prior was +12.6 Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall this month, according to the firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity and new orders indexes remained somewhat elevated; however, the shipments index declined to a near-zero reading. The employment index suggests mostly steady employment overall but dipped into
US February Philly Fed Business Index +16.3 vs +8.5 expected Read More »
The rising tensions and expectations of a potential military conflict over the weekend is now keeping markets on edge. Oil prices rallied yesterday, with WTI crude moving up by over 4% to $65 levels now. The jump also coincides with a solid rebound off the 200-day moving average once more, holding since the start of
Geopolitics in focus in the second half of the week Read More »
Summary: JPMorgan says renewed FX hedging by foreign investors could add fresh pressure on the US dollar Stronger non-US currencies are increasing incentives to hedge US equity exposure Fed rate hikes are seen as off the table, reducing yield support for the dollar AUD and NZD forecasts upgraded; upside risks flagged for EUR Bank remains
JP Morgan raise their forecasts for AUD, NZD and for USD/JPY (EUR/USD unchanged) Read More »
If there was a fight on the street between two strangers would you join in? That’s the analogy that traders would consider when there is high drama in a particular stock or sector. Right now it’s software stocks as their being slammed lower on fears that AI will disrupt the sector. Unless you already had
You don’t need to wade into the battleground stocks Read More »
Hanzawa says that: “There is a reasonable possibility that the BOJ will raise interest rates as early as in March or April.” For now, markets are not really expecting one to come next month at least. That as the Japanese central bank will still have to wait on how the spring wage negotiations play out.
JBA chief says reasonable chance of BOJ rate hike to come in March or April Read More »
Headlines: Geopolitics in focus in the second half of the week Oil prices surge amid US-Iran war risks: a conflict could trigger a massive spike Renewed US-Iran tensions lift gold prices as traders hedge into the weekend risk Trump reportedly mulls shaking up North American trade pact, leaving Canada on the outs Foreign holdings of
investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar holds steady, oil climbs on US-Iran tensions Read More »
Economists bring forward BOJ hike expectations and see yen intervention risk near 160. Summary: All 76 economists expect the BOJ to hold rates steady in March Majority now see policy rate at 1% by end-June, earlier than pre-election view Growing concern about fiscal expansion and yen weakness 69% expect currency intervention if USD/JPY nears 160
BOJ expected to reach 1% by mid-year as yen intervention risks rise near 160 USD/JPY Read More »
Here are a couple of views from market analysts on the EUR/USD currency pair, with it hovering around the “sweet spot” for the ECB. As we know, the central bank is viewing it as being “complicated” if price does move towards the 1.20 level. So, keeping as it is now would be somewhat comfortable for
EUR/USD upside remains more likely amid weaker dollar, analysts say Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar is now trading higher against most major currencies after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market is still pricing 58 bps of easing by year-end but the crowded bearish positioning on the US dollar requires strong reasons for the
Australian dollar struggles despite strong jobs report: time for a major pullback? Read More »
This builds on the headlines from yesterday: ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires ECB says Lagarde remains committed to her role as president The latest report here cites four sources in saying that Lagarde told colleagues in a private message that she remains focused on her job
ECB Lagarde reportedly told colleagues that she remains focused on her job Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices recouped all last week’s losses as risks of a US-Iran conflict increased. In fact, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran
Oil prices surge amid US-Iran war risks: a conflict could trigger a massive spike Read More »
I posted a preview of the jobs data here: Australia’s January labour force data due today – preview Posting the data now, and I’ll have more to come on separately, analysis and implications etc. Added – Here is more: Australia unemployment total falls for fourth straight month. RBA March rate hike prospect Wow … this
Australian January jobs data, Unemployment rate 4.1% (expected 4.2%, prior 4.1% Read More »
If the outlook for inflation changes, committee will adjust policy stance to ensure inflation returns to target Wage growth is modest, we do have spare capacity There are uncertainties about how firms adjust pricing behaviour as the economy recovers Seeing consumption starting to increase, stabilizing job market and falling inflation provide support Household consumption starting
RBNZ Governor Breman: Not at all comfortable with having inflation at 3.1% Read More »
This is a day later than normal this week due to the US holiday on Monday. — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different.The
Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw Read More »
The Aussie jobs data (preview here) is the focus of the data calendar here today. Note that while Singapore is back from holiday today mainland China and Hong Kong are still out. Liquididity in markets will be somewhat thinner than usual. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, February 19, 2026 – Australian jobs data Read More »
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year notes at a high yield of 4.664%, which tailed the when-issued level (4.644%) by 2.0 basis points — a sign of softer demand. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.36X, below the 6-month average of 2.66X, reflecting weaker overall participation. Dealers were forced to take down 17.6%
EURUSD Technicals: The EURUSD is running to a new low as the USD moves higher Read More »
The Dow and S&P rose for the 3rd straight session while of the NASDAQ index increase for the 2nd in a row. Although higher, the major indices are closing near the middle of the data trading range. Yields moving higher and they slightly more hawkish Fed led to a rotation off of the highs for
S&P and Dow industrial average closehigher for the 3rd consecutive day Read More »
There are a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1790-00 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could play a key role in terms of limiting price action on the day. The expiries are
FX option expiries for 19 February 10am New York cut Read More »
The USDCAD is pushing to fresh highs for the day — and the week — as broad USD strength drives the pair higher. What makes the move notable is that it’s occurring despite a sharp rally in crude oil, which is up 4.59% on heightened geopolitical tensions following a reported U.S. strike on Iran. Normally,
USDCAD Technicals: The USDCAD has pushed to new highs for the day/week Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. The focus remains on the US-Iran tensions as risks of a military conflict increased following yesterday’s Axios report saying that a war was looking increasingly
What are the main events for today? Read More »
NVIDIA stock analysis: underlying activity suggests cautious bullish bias as NVDA outperforms NDX and peers NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading near ~$188 after rebounding sharply from the ~$170 area, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) remains in a broader repair phase below recent highs near ~$26,000. Technology shares have experienced volatility, but NVDA has shown relative resilience
NVDA Stock Analysis Shows It Is Stronger Than You Might Think Read More »
In wrapping up the 2025 year, foreign holdings of US Treasuries dropped slightly in December to $9.27 trillion. That compares with the peak seen in November at $9.36 trillion. The $88.4 billion drop might not seem much but it still represents the largest monthly decline since late 2022. But after hitting a record high in
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries cool slightly after peaking in November Read More »
Japan’s machinery orders rebound sharply, reinforcing capex strength despite fiscal caution. Summary: Core machinery orders surged 19.1% m/m in December vs 4.5% expected Annual growth jumped to 16.8% y/y vs 3.9% forecast Rebound follows sharp November declines Data support the BOJ’s outlook for continued economic expansion Corporate survey (report earlier) shows ongoing fiscal caution despite
Japan machinery orders surge 19.1% in December, smashing forecasts Read More »
S&P and Dow industrial average closehigher for the 3rd consecutive day RBNZ Governor Breman: Not at all comfortable with having inflation at 3.1% FOMC Minutes: Almost all Fed officials favored holding rates steady Fed’s Bowman still concerned about labor market, says recent jobs report ‘a bit strange’ Bitcoin Technicals:The price of bitcoin is consolidating in
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 Feb: USD higher with yields, commodities leading Read More »
Netflix stock analysis: buyers quietly rebuilding control on the medium-term structure NFLX is trading near $78, rebounding from the $75 area and approaching resistance at $79-$80. Performance has been weak across multiple timeframes, with the stock down apx. 30% over 3 months and 35% over 6 months, highlighting the broader corrective backdrop. Two major points
Netflix stock analysis shows buyers quietly regaining control Read More »
Summary: Analysts expect a moderation in employment growth in January following December’s outsized gain, with the unemployment rate seen ticking slightly higher. The labour market is viewed as broadly steady rather than re-tightening, though January’s seasonal volatility adds uncertainty. — Australia’s January labour force survey will be closely watched as policymakers assess whether the recent
Australia’s January labour force data due today – preview Read More »
Two officials dissented in favor of 25 basis point rate cut at Jan. meeting (Waller and Miran) Almost all participants supported maintaining rates at 3.5%-3.75% Several participants open to ‘two-sided’ guidance including possible rate hikes Vast majority judged downside risks to employment had diminished Most officials saw risk of inflation stalling above 2% target Staff
FOMC Minutes: Almost all Fed officials favored holding rates steady Read More »
Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with price action compressing after the prior directional move. On the hourly chart, the market has been tracking along an upward-sloping trendline that connects the February 12 low to the February 17 low. That trendline has quietly acted as near-term support, helping to steady price during recent pullbacks. Today,
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is an interesting case as she turned dovish last year as she as being considered for Fed Chair. She hasn’t abandoned that position but highlighted something that many in the market are puzzled by. A number of US labor market indicators have shown weakness lately but then last Wednesday there was
Fed’s Bowman still concerned about labor market, says recent jobs report ‘a bit strange’ Read More »
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux has opted to join the Liberals. In last year’s Federal election, the Liberals won 169 seats, which is just shy of the 172 needed for a majority. In the time since, we’ve seen Conservatives Chris d’Entremont and Michael Ma switch parties to join the
Another Conservative defection effectively gives Mark Carney’s Liberals a majority Read More »
Iran foreign minister: There have been good developments compared to last round of talks US February NAHB housing market index 36 vs 38 expected February Empire Fed manufacturing survey +7.1 vs +6.98 expected Canada January CPI +2.3% y/y vs +2.4% expected Fed’s Goolsbee: Servies inflation is not tame Fed’s Barr: Prudent for Fed to take
The ECB has won the battle against inflation Inflation is not too low in France French inflation undershooting on temporary factors Decision to leave early is personal Villeroy is the governor of the French central bank and he’s generally considered a dove, although he changed his stance to neutral several months ago like most other
ECB’s Villeroy: The ECB has won the battle against inflation Read More »
Yesterday oil and gold prices sank after Iran’s foreign minister had an upbeat take following meetings with US officials but today a leak is sending the opposite signal. WTI crude oil is up $2.18 to $64.51 Gold is up $121 to $4998 The gains — and a US dollar rally — have been driven in
The drums of war are sounding for oil and gold today Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The
White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett crossed a line today when he said the authors of a paper who said US companies were paying tariffs should be ‘disciplined’. The paper in question concluded that 90% of the tariff burden is being shouldered domestically and he called the “the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the
NY Fed in the White House crosshairs, also says inflation is accelerating Read More »
Prior was +0.4% Capacity utilization 76.2% vs 76.5% expected Manufacturing output +0.6% vs +0.4% expected The Federal Reserve’s industrial production data for the fall was complicated by delayed releases stemming from the government shutdown, with October and November figures published jointly on December 23 and December data following on January 16. Despite the reporting disruptions,
US January industrial production +0.7 vs +0.4% expected Read More »
Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are posting solid gains today, with the S&P up 0.85% and the NASDAQ higher by 1.25%. After recent consolidation and downside probes, buyers are stepping back in — but key technical levels will determine whether this bounce turns into something more durable. NASDAQ: Key Levels Define Control The
Doesn’t comment on meeting with Ueda or FX Hopes BOJ works closely with the government Wants to durably achieve 2% inflation target accompanied by wage grains No change to our stance to seek market confidence in Japan’s finances by achieving fiscal stability, stably lowering debt-to-GDP ratio The start of this year looked like 2026 could
Takaichi: Looking carefully at day-to-day market moves Read More »
Global digital asset markets saw a distinct change in capital behavior throughout 2025. While JPMorgan data tracks nearly $130 billion in inflows for the year, the capital allocation did not follow the pattern of previous bull cycles. Liquidity refused to trickle down into broader speculative markets. Instead, flows remained stubbornly concentrated in major caps like
How Binance’s ADGM Licensing Reshapes Institutional Crypto Access Read More »
It’s rather common to see former BOJ policymakers deliver bold remarks after they have left the central bank. And this time is no different, with Yamamoto offering up some comments in an interview with MNI. He is one to have spent 36 years at the BOJ, before leaving to head the Office KY Initiative. His
BOJ now paying the price for not hiking rates in a timely manner, says ex-policymaker Read More »
The GDPNow reading has slowly been sliding after getting much fanfare from politicians when it was above 5% on shutdown-affected data. The latest reading trims another 0.1 pp from the reading as we near the first official reading (which of course is revised several times itself). Tomorrow we get another update on the GDPNow forecast
Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 3.6% vs 3.7% prior Read More »
Prior month housing starts 1.246M Prior month building permits 1.411M Housing Starts (December SAAR) 1,404,000 total starts vs estimate of 1.309M +6.2% m/m (vs. 1,322,000 in November). Last month -4.6% -7.3% y/y (vs. 1,514,000 in Dec 2024) Single-family: 981,000 (+4.1% m/m) 5+ units: 402,000 2025 total starts: 1,358,700 (-0.6% vs. 2024) Building Permits (December SAAR)
US housing starts for December 1.404M vs 1.309M estimate Read More »
This relates to the earlier story here: ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires The central bank refuting the report isn’t surprising and with things like this, it will never be confirmed until it is officially announced. So, don’t expect any real confirmation by the ECB on this
ECB says Lagarde remains committed to her role as president Read More »
Prior was +5.3% Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.3% expected Prior ex-transport +0.4% Durable goods ex-defense -2.5% vs +6.5% prior Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% Shipments +1.0% vs -0.2% prior (revised to -0.3%) USD/JPY was trading at 153.66 ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 60 bps
US December durable goods orders -1.4% vs -2.0% expected Read More »
The USDCHF has been stuck in a relatively tight 80-pip trading range over the last five to six trading days. For a full week of activity, that’s fairly compressed price action. When volatility contracts like this, it often precedes expansion — meaning at some point the pair is likely to break and run. The key
USDCHF Technicals: The USDCHF is showing modest bullish buying. Awaits the shove. Read More »
Prior +3.4% Core CPI +3.1% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.2% The inflation picture continues to point to some softening, but not to the degree to make the BOE feel comfortable enough. The drop in headline annual inflation is largely due to base effects, with energy prices being the main factor. Overall prices for motor
UK January CPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expected Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The
The New Zealand Dollar drops across the board as RBNZ disappoints the hawks Read More »
The showing yesterday was a bit of a mixed one but it continues to highlight some resilience in dip buying in US equities for now. That despite all the concerns on the AI trade and software stocks in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1% overnight but rallied in
S&P 500 continues to bend but don’t break for now Read More »
Headlines: The New Zealand Dollar drops across the board as RBNZ disappoints the hawks The risk mood picks up in European morning trade A major war between US and Iran looks imminent – report ECB president Lagarde reportedly poised to leave the central bank before her term expires ECB’s Villeroy: The ECB has won the
investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steadies, oil jumps on US-Iran tensions Read More »
Sector Overview The technology sector is making significant strides today, led by semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA), which has soared by 2.01%. The semiconductor segment, despite some declines such as AMD dipping 2.70%, is buoyed by positive performances from companies like Texas Instruments (TXN) and Analog Devices (ADI), which are up 0.45% and 3.48% respectively. Meanwhile,
Tech sector powers ahead: Nvidia surges while financials stabilize Read More »
In today’s Kickstart video, I break down the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. The dollar is modestly stronger overall, up about 0.23% vs JPY, barely higher by 0.08% vs EUR, and slightly lower by 0.05% vs GBP. So while the USD tone is firmer against the yen, it’s more mixed elsewhere. Technically,
Westpac’s Leading Index slowed to near-flat in January, signalling growth momentum has slipped back to trend. Consumer and housing weakness offset commodity support, with GDP still seen at 2.5% in 2026. Summary: Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slows to +0.02% in January (from +0.44%). Growth momentum shifts from slightly above trend to broadly in line with
Westpac Leading Index slows to near-flat, signals cooling growth momentum Read More »
The FOMC meeting minutes won’t be the only standout event on the economic calendar today. This is one that will also be heavily watched by traders and investors, that especially since the US dollar has been heavily scrutinised in recent months. For all the talk about de-dollarisation and market players selling US assets, it hasn’t
Heads up: US Treasury to release TIC data later today Read More »
AI may not yet have boosted corporate profits or enhanced employee productivity, but it has already created a shortage of memory chips, critical components in the technology industry, as manufacturers prioritize supply for hyperscalers over the chips used in laptops and smartphones. Tesla, Apple, and other big companies have already warned that DRAM shortages, the
How much more expensive could hardware get? Read More »
Earlier, we got a report from Axios suggesting that a war between the U.S. and Iran now appears increasingly likely. According to the sources cited, there is currently no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. They also noted that, given Trump’s recent military build-up and escalated rhetoric, it may be difficult for
A war between US and Iran would have disastrous effects on the market and the economy Read More »
There are earnings weeks where volatility is isolated. And then there are weeks where positioning across multiple sectors is already stretched, and earnings become the release valve. This one feels like the latter. Walmart, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Analog Devices, and Deere do not share business models. What they share right now is elevated options pricing
Interesting earnings this week Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The
USDJPY remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to pick a direction Read More »
After the fall since the Japan snap election result last week, the pair is caught in a bit of a tight spot with price action ranging in between 152.50 to 153.80 for the most part. While intervention risks remain heightened, there’s still no strong conviction to be turning bullish on the Japanese yen at this
Where to now for USD/JPY? Read More »
Wall Street showed much resilience yesterday, with the S&P 500 once again hanging on a key technical support level. That’s leading to a further bounce today with US futures now sitting up 0.6%. In Europe, that’s also translating to more solid gains across the board as the risk mood perks up. DAX +0.8% CAC 40
The risk mood picks up in European morning trade Read More »
PPI Outputs: The PPI Outputs measure the average prices received by New Zealand producers for goods and services they produce and sell. This could be to other businesses (intermediate consumption) or to final consumers. cover various industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and services, among others rising PPI Outputs index can indicate increasing inflationary pressure
NZ data: Q4 PPI output +0.1% q/q (exp +0.7%, prior +0.6%) & inputs -0.5% (+0.5%, +0.2%) Read More »
The S&P 500 looked like it would continue its malaise this week but after a poor start, it’s turned around nicely. The index is now at a session high, up 20 points, or 0.3% to 6858. That’s 70 points above the session low from the mid-morning. Lately we’ve seen some late selloffs so I don’t
Apple, airlines and banks lead a turnaround in US equity markets Read More »
The latest FT report says that Lagarde is expected to depart from the ECB well before her term as president expires, according to a person familiar with her thinking. It is said that ideally she wants to make an exit before the French presidential election in April next year. In doing so, it will allow
The sources cited note that there is currently no evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran on the horizon. At this stage, the report says that Trump’s military and rhetorical build-ups is going to prove tough to back down from, especially if without any major concessions from Iran regarding its nuclear program.
A major war between US and Iran looks imminent – report Read More »
5PAY had an exciting 2025, and it’s kicking off 2026 with even more exciting news. After taking home an award for offering the best payment gateway APAC, the company is very proud to announce its new award win, but this time in the MEA region – ‘Best Payment Gateway MEA’ at the prestigious UF AWARDS
5PAY 2025 Best Payment Gateway Winner in APAC, Secures UF AWARDS MEA 2026 Title Read More »
Japan’s manufacturers rebounded in February to +13, but services sentiment eased to +25, highlighting an uneven recovery. Forward indicators point to modest softening into May. Summary: Reuters Tankan: manufacturers index +13 in Feb (vs +7 Jan), highest since November. Non-manufacturers slip to +25 (vs +32 Jan), signalling softer services momentum. Machinery strongest; transport machinery weaker
Japan manufacturers rebound in February Reuters Tankan, services sentiment slips Read More »
USD/INR is expected to open flat as mildly firmer US front-end yields support the dollar, while persistent RBI offers around 90.70–90.80 cap upside and keep the pair range-bound. Summary: USD/INR seen opening largely flat around 90.66–90.70, with push-pull forces intact. Mild hawkish repricing in the US (front-end yields firmer) is supporting the dollar. Dollar index
USD/INR steady as US yields support dollar, RBI offers cap upside Read More »
Prior +0.8% HICP +0.4% vs +0.4% y/y prelim Prior +0.7% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
France January final CPI +0.3% vs +0.3% y/y prelim Read More »
The IMF urged Japan to continue gradual rate hikes toward neutral by 2027 and warned against cutting the consumption tax, highlighting fiscal risks as Takaichi’s government pushes ahead with tax relief plans. Summary: International Monetary Fund urges Japan to keep raising rates gradually to neutral by 2027. Warns against cutting the consumption tax, saying it
IMF urges Japan to keep raising rates, warns against sales tax cuts Read More »
The Scotiabank Global Equity Research team dropped a meaty note this morning breaking down six major gold bull cycles over the past 50 years, and the conclusion is pretty straightforward: this one isn’t over. Gold is sitting around $5,025/oz right now, up 209% from the October 2022 low of $1,628. That’s a heck of a
Scotiabank says the gold bull market has more room to run — and the numbers back it up Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data came mostly in line with expectations, so it didn’t change anything in terms of market pricing. The BoE is still expected to cut rates at the next meeting. Looking ahead, we don’t have much on the agenda other than
What are the main events for today? Read More »
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision and press conference is the focus for the session here. RBNZ statement due 18 February at 2pm New Zealand time (0100 GMT / 2000 US Eastern time on Tuesday 17 February). Previews: RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Likely RBNZ on
Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, February 18, 2026 – RBNZ rate setting day Read More »
Goldman raises its AUD/USD path to 0.72–0.74 over 12 months, citing RBA hawkishness, relative policy divergence and valuation support, while flagging commodity and global risk risks. Summary: Goldman Sachs lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.72 (3m), 0.73 (6m), 0.74 (12m). Upgrade driven by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and expectation of another May hike. AUD
Goldman lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.74 as RBA hawkish stance supports outlook Read More »
RBNZ sees inflation falling toward target as recovery slowly builds, stays dovish USD/INR steady as US yields support dollar, RBI offers cap upside Japan outlines US investment projects, including $33bn gas power for data centres RBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodative Recap – RBNZ holds at 2.25% but brings forward
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: NZD/USD lower on a dovish RBNZ Read More »
The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, signalling inflation is returning to target while revising its future rate path slightly higher. Policy remains accommodative for now, but gradual normalisation is expected. Summary: Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves OCR unchanged at 2.25%. Inflation slightly above 1–3% band at end-2025 but expected back inside target this
RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higher Read More »
This post is just for getting the decision out quickly. Added – MUCH more here, details analysis etc: RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higher NZD/USD has been marked a little lower on the announcement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
RBNZ leave cash rate on hold, as expected Read More »
The RBNZ held rates at 2.25% but brought forward the implied timing of its first hike, signalling a slightly firmer outlook than in November while maintaining that policy will remain accommodative for now. Summary: Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, as expected. Policy still described as accommodative for some time. OCR
Recap – RBNZ holds at 2.25% but brings forward implied timing of first rate hike Read More »
A new CIBC equity research note caught my eye this week. It’s about the waste industry — not exactly the sexiest corner of the market — but it lays out a framework that I think applies to a much broader set of companies. The core idea: AI can add 130 to 270 basis points of
Governor Breman reinforced the RBNZ’s “accommodative for some time” stance while acknowledging a possible year-end hike, stressing any move depends on stronger growth and inflation pressure and that normalisation would be gradual. Summary Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman reinforced the post-decision message: policy stays accommodative, with only gradual normalisation ahead. Breman said
RBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodative Read More »
In line data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Australian wage growth as expected and the same as prior quarter Read More »
The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, reiterated that policy will stay accommodative while inflation returns toward target, and brought forward its projections for a potential first hike, reinforcing a data-dependent, gradual normalisation path. Summary: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, reinforcing that policy remains supportive. The updated OCR track
RBNZ sees inflation falling toward target as recovery slowly builds, stays dovish Read More »
Japan’s trade minister outlined three US investment projects worth $600m, $2.1bn and $33.3bn, spanning artificial diamonds and energy infrastructure for data centres, and said Tokyo is coordinating with Washington while preparing a second batch of deals. Japan’s trade minister Akazawa outlined three US investment projects: $600m artificial diamond, $2.1bn crude oil, $33.3bn gas-fired thermal power
Japan outlines US investment projects, including $33bn gas power for data centres Read More »
China achieved 5% growth in 2025 on export strength, but analysts warn that sustaining momentum in 2026 will require a proactive shift toward boosting domestic demand and stabilising housing. Summary: China met its 5.0% GDP growth target in 2025, supported heavily by net exports. Export gains to Asia, Europe and Latin America offset US trade
Westpac: China must shift to proactive policy in 2026 to sustain growth Read More »
Exports to the US -5% y/y to EU +29.6% to China +32% y/y I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Japan January exports surge much higher than expected Read More »
Goldman upgrades Japan to overweight and lifts its TOPIX target to 4,300, arguing political stability under Takaichi and structural governance reforms can drive further foreign inflows and valuation expansion. Summary: Goldman Sachs upgrades Japanese equities to overweight from neutral. 12-month TOPIX target raised to 4,300 (from 3,900). Call anchored in stronger mandate for PM Sanae
Goldman upgrades Japan to overweight, lifts TOPIX target to 4,300 Read More »
Comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr in a speech: Prudent for Fed to take time, look at data, before changing policy again. Wants to see more evidence inflation ebbing to 2% target. Still sees ‘significant risk’ inflation will stay over 2%. Reasonable to think price pressures will further cool. Job market in balance but vulnerable
Fed’s Barr: Prudent for Fed to take time before changing policy again Read More »
The GBPUSD has now made two clear downside runs beginning from yesterday’s session high at 1.3661 — and that sequencing matters. The first leg lower took the pair from 1.3661 down to 1.3550 during the late Asian / early European session. That move had momentum behind it. Sellers were in control, pushing price through intraday
GBPUSD Technicals: GBPUSD tests key retracement ceiling after two-leg decline Read More »
The RBA’s February minutes are expected to reinforce the case for its return to tightening, highlighting persistent inflation, firm demand and ongoing capacity pressures, without signalling any major shift from the guidance already provided. Summary: RBA to publish minutes from February meeting that lifted the cash rate to 3.85%. Due at 11.30am Sydney time, which
RBA February minutes to detail case for rate hike, set to reinforce tightening bias Read More »
Dollar positioning has reached its most negative level on record in Bank of America’s survey, reflecting broad expectations of US softness and potential Fed easing, with labour market risks seen as the main catalyst for further weakness. Summary: Investor positioning in the US dollar has fallen to its most negative level since at least January
US dollar positioning hits record underweight in Bank of America survey Read More »
Sentiment is one of the best market indicators out there. In fact, I’d argue that the only reason to be on the stock market internet is to get news and — perhaps more importantly — to gauge sentiment. I don’t think I’ve ever felt it was so tough to figure out where sentiment really lies.
Gold stays rangebound amid Chinese holiday and lack of catalysts. What’s next? Germany February ZEW economic sentiment index 58.3 vs 65.2 expected RBNZ preview: risk of disappointment given the high expectations AI bubble top tail risk, long gold most crowded trade according to BofA survey Germany January final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim UK
Japan’s 5-year JGB auction drew steady demand with a 3.10 bid-to-cover ratio and a modestly tighter tail, though participation was slightly softer compared with stronger sales last year. Japan sold ¥1.89 trillion of 5-year JGBs with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.10 (vs 3.08 prior). Stop rate (highest accepted yield) came in at 1.646%, average yield
Japan 5-year JGB auction sees steady demand, bid-to-cover at 3.10 Read More »
The USDJPY has spent the last four trading days rotating in a defined up-and-down range, reflecting a market that is consolidating rather than trending. The low for the move was established last Thursday, and since that time the pair has carved out a pattern of progressively higher lows. That subtle shift in structure suggests that
USDJPY Technicals: The buyers are looking to take more control in the short term Read More »
The price of Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since rebounding from the February 6th low near $59,930. After the sharp decline from the January 28th high near $90,352, the market managed to recover approximately 38.2% of that prior drop — a key Fibonacci retracement level that often acts as resistance in corrective bounces.
Bitcoin compresses below key resistance. Looking for a move away from consolidation soon Read More »
ING expects the RBNZ to hold in February 18 but signal a more hawkish stance as inflation surprises to the upside, forecasting two hikes from 3Q and medium-term NZD strength. Summary of their views below. Earlier: RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Likely RBNZ on hold decision February
Prior was 37 Current single-family home sales 41 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 22 vs 23 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 46 vs 49 prior It’s curious that home builder stocks hit a record on Friday via the XHB ETF. The market is looking way ahead towards a lowering of interest
US February NAHB housing market index 36 vs 38 expected Read More »
The two parties will work on potential agreement documents and exchange them Two parties still have topics on which they still need to work This does not mean that we will reach an agreement soon but the path was started Oil is down $1 on the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at
Iran foreign minister: There have been good developments compared to last round of talks Read More »
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This Ramadan, Versus Trade Presents Its 100% Deposit Bonus Campaign Read More »
EUR/USD 1.2000 (EUR 940.83 mn) 1.1900 (EUR 1.34 bn) 1.1700 (EUR 975.72 mn) USD/JPY 156.00 (US$ 1.95 bn) 151.00 (US$ 1.09 bn) GBP/USD 1.3560 (GBP 766.08 mn) USD/CHF 0.7730 (US$ 694.69 mn) USD/CAD 1.3600 (US$ 1.02 bn) 1.3500 (US$ 973.00 mn) AUD/USD 0.7025 (AUD 449.18 mn) NZD/USD 0.6100 (NZD 140.98 mn) 0.5975 (NZD 196.92 mn)
FX option expiries for 17 February 10am New York cut Read More »
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% tomorrow. Alongside the decision, we’ll also get the latest Monetary Policy Statement and updated economic projections. Analysts expect the central bank to signal an earlier start to rate hikes, with the first increase seen in
RBNZ preview: risk of disappointment given the high expectations Read More »
Today’s stock market reflects a volatile landscape with a notable downturn in the technology sector, highlighted by declines in major companies and mixed results across various industries. 🔍 Sector Overview The technology sector is experiencing a challenging day, with software and semiconductor giants facing significant declines. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) decreased by 1.85% and Microsoft (MSFT)
Tech heavyweights stumble: Dynamics shaping today’s market Read More »
easyMarkets has been awarded Customer Support Excellence by TradingView, as the global CFD broker marks 25 Years at Your Service. The recognition from TradingView, highlights easyMarkets’ long-standing commitment to delivering reliable, human customer support in an increasingly complex and fast-moving trading environment. Customer support has been a core part of the easyMarkets offering since the
easyMarkets Honored by TradingView for Customer Support Excellence at 25 Years Read More »
Oil prices remain steady as Iran’s Strait of Hormuz drills heighten supply risk ahead of US nuclear talks, while OPEC+ output decisions and prospects for diplomatic progress temper upside. Summary: Oil prices steady as Iran conducts naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of US nuclear talks. President Donald Trump signals indirect involvement in
Oil steady as Iran drills near Strait of Hormuz ahead of US talks Read More »
In EURUSD last week, sellers leaned against the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-January high to the early-February low at 1.19230. The high on Tuesday reached 1.1928, with additional swing highs at 1.1926–1.1925, effectively stalling upside momentum. Buyers had their opportunity — and they failed. That rejection set the tone for Wednesday’s slide,
EURUSD Technicals: The EURUSD is lower as sellers stay in control Read More »
Details: New orders 5.8 vs 6.6 prior Shipments -1.0 vs 16.3 prior Employment 4.0 vs -9.0 prior Average employee workweek 2.1 versus -5.4 prior Prices paid 49.1 vs 42.8 prior Prices received 22.2 vs 14.4 prior Unfilled orders 9.1 vs -8.2 prior Delivery times 4.0 vs 0.0 prior Inventories 7.1 vs -2.1 prior Supply availability
February Empire Fed manufacturing survey +7.1 vs +6.98 expected Read More »
Wants some evididence that inflation is headed back to 2% Considers a 3% policy rate a ‘loose’ estimate of neutral There are potentially ‘several’ more rate cuts if progress on inflation resumes Goods with higher tariffed content have tended to see larger price increases Recent headline inflation was partly pulled down due to base effects
Fed’s Goolsbee: Servies inflation is not tame Read More »
Prior was +2.4% CPM m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Prior CPI m/m -0.2% Core measures: BOC core 2.6% vs 2.8% prior BOC core m/m +0.2% vs -0.4% prior Core CPI % m/m +0.1% vs +0.3% prior CPI median +2.5% vs 2.5% expected (prior was 2.6%) CPI trim +2.4% vs 2.6% expected (prior was 2.7%) CPI
Canada January CPI +2.3% y/y vs +2.4% expected Read More »
Japan 5-year JGB auction sees steady demand, bid-to-cover at 3.10 RBNZ to hold, signal rate hikes ahead, ING. Upside risks for NZ/US toward 0.62 by year-end India central bank finalises easier foreign borrowing rules for corporates Oil steady as Iran drills near Strait of Hormuz ahead of US talks US dollar positioning hits record underweight
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY sharp drop Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold found some support from the benign US CPI report on Friday where headline inflation eased slightly, while the core measure remained unchanged. We saw a small dovish repricing although the data didn’t change anything in the bigger picture. Yesterday, gold dropped again and eventually erased all the post-CPI gains. There was no
Gold stays rangebound amid Chinese holiday and lack of catalysts. What’s next? Read More »
A former BOJ board member says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike, as policymakers await wage data and updated forecasts, signaling a cautious but ongoing normalization process. This comes via Bloomberg (gated) Former BOJ board member Seiji Adachi says April is the most likely timing for the next rate hike.
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK employment report. The consensus is for 94K jobs added in the three months to December 2025 vs 82K in the prior month, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%. The Average Earnings incl. Bonus is expected at at 4.6%
What are the main events for today? Read More »
Global investors stay “uber-bullish” but asset price upside in Q1 is harder Commodity overweight at highest since May 2022 Equity overweight at highest since December 2024 Most optimistic on earnings since August 2021, but investors saying companies are “overinvesting” at new record AI bubble is top tail risk Long gold is the most crowded trade
AI bubble top tail risk, long gold most crowded trade according to BofA survey Read More »
Prior 59.6 Current conditions -65.9 vs – 65.9 expected Prior -72.7 Expectations eased slightly from the prior reading but the current conditions improved further. There’s been some minor downside in the euro after the release but the data isn’t going to change anything for the ECB as it focuses more on inflation. The reaction will
Germany February ZEW economic sentiment index 58.3 vs 65.2 expected Read More »
I’ve been posting this information late last week and earlier this week, but ICYMi. Summary: Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb. Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24. Hong Kong is closed Feb 17–19, and reopens Fri Feb 20. Singapore (SGX)
Prior +1.8% HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% Core CPI 2.5% y/y No changes to the preliminary estimates here. The reaction to the data was muted as expected given no surprises and no influence on ECB’s policy outlook. The agency notes: “The rise in overall consumer prices intensified at the start of the
Germany January final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Read More »
Reserve Bank of Australia minutes feature on the event agenda, preview here. Otherwise it could well be a bit dreary here today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The RBNZ is expected to hold rates steady, but a recent lift in food price inflation adds nuance. Markets will focus on the tone of the statement, with the NZD at risk if policymakers sound more relaxed about inflation. Summary Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets Wednesday, 18 February 2026; policy widely expected to remain
RBNZ expected to hold rates as higher food price inflation adds limited pressure Read More »
An update on these two losing ground. There is no fresh news driving price. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Gold and silver both lower into thin Asia trade Read More »
Prior 5.1% Employment change 52k vs 94k expected Prior 82k Average weekly earnings +4.2% vs +4.6% 3m/y expected Prior +4.7% (revised to 4.6%) Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.2% vs +4.2% 3m/y expected Prior +4.5% (revised to 4.4%) January payrolls change -11k Prior -43k (revised to -6k) As a general reminder, the UK labour market
UK December ILO unemployment rate 5.2% vs 5.1% expected Read More »
Soft landing looks more plausible, but the Fed isn’t ready to call it done. This is via the Wall Street Journal (gated), I’ve summarised. Summary: Key US macro “vital signs” are aligned: inflation is easing, jobs are holding up, and growth remains solid. Core CPI slowed to 2.5% y/y in January, while unemployment edged down
Soft landing looks more plausible, but the Fed isn’t ready to call it done. Read More »
China will implement zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries from May 1, broadening earlier waivers and deepening economic ties, in contrast to the US administration’s more protectionist tariff stance. Summary: China to eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations from May 1, 2026. Policy applies to all countries with diplomatic ties to
ICYMI: China to remove tariffs on imports from 53 African nations from May 1 Read More »
India’s ECB rule changes widen offshore funding options for corporates, with a mild positive read-through for risk. Info via Reuters reporting. Summary: RBI finalised easier rules for external commercial borrowings (ECBs), expanding flexibility for corporates raising overseas debt. Eligible firms can borrow up to $1bn or 300% of net worth, in foreign currency or rupees.
India central bank finalises easier foreign borrowing rules for corporates Read More »
RBA minutes show the February rate hike was driven by stronger-than-expected data, persistent broad-based inflation and easing financial conditions, with policymakers emphasising data dependence and no preset rate path. Board judged risks to inflation and employment had “shifted materially”, strengthening case for February hike. Members agreed inflation would likely stay above target too long without
RBA minutes show inflation risks ‘shifted materially’ behind February rate hike Read More »
EUR/USD: 1.1900 (EUR1.22bn), 1.2000 (EUR769.2mn), 1.2025 (EUR615.4mn) USD/JPY: 156.00 (US$1.87bn), 151.00 (US$986.2mn) USD/CAD: 1.3600 (US$1.11bn), 1.3625 (US$980.7mn), 1.3500 (US$943mn) AUD/USD: 0.7025 (AUD429.2mn), 0.6750 (AUD399.3mn) GBP/USD: 1.3560 (GBP317mn) More information here. Justin posted this yesterday: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
FX option expiries for 17 February 10am New York cut Read More »
Canada January housing starts 238.0K vs 257.5K expected Canada December manufacturing sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expected The EU and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc are opening talks Four charts that highlight the worries that are driving markets right now The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the AI company a supply
investingLive Americas market news wrap: US holiday keeps a lid on markets Read More »
I’ve got four charts crossing the desk today that paint a complicated picture for the Fed and the USD. We have a specific sector falling off a cliff, broader resilience, a sentiment reset, and the one thing Jay Powell doesn’t want to see: inflation ticking back up. 1. The Tech Sector is falling off a
Four charts that highlight the worries that are driving markets right now Read More »
USD/JPY has been the most-interesting forex pair of the past couple years as volatility remains elevated and a pair of 18-big figure trends have unfolded. More recently, we’ve seen a sharp move down to 152.00 from 159.00 following the latest Japanese election. In it, Senae Takaichi’s LDP party won a super majority in the Lower
USD/JPY attemps to form a double bottom Read More »
Ethereum is frozen as the crypto winter continues. And it’s not frozen in a great spot as it carves out a range near the lows of the year. I would have liked to have seen a stronger bounce after the drop since late January but so far it hasn’t materialized. Instead, it’s stuck near $2000
Ethereum chops at the bottom of the range as we await a move. The chart is ominous Read More »
That will make for a quieter start to the new week, not least with Chinese markets also out today. As a reminder, it will be a one week break for China in conjunction with the Lunar New Year holidays. So, that will sap out a chunk of liquidity in Asia trading at least for the
Reminder: US markets are closed today Read More »
Westpac says global growth rotation may weigh on the dollar. Summary: Westpac sees dollar drifting lower, with risks skewed to the downside. US growth expected above trend in 2026, driven by consumers and tech investment. Inflation pressures likely to persist, limiting Fed rate cuts to one more move. Euro and sterling forecast to outperform, reaching
Westpac targets 1.22 for EUR/USD and $1.41 GBP/USD (long horizon) Read More »
The currency pair had a bit of a mixed showing last week, with the early Monday move seeing price climb back above 1.1900 before stalling closer to 1.1920. After that, the hotter-than-expected US jobs report here sent the pair back down below the figure level. And since then, the pair has been meandering just under
EUR/USD still caught meandering after post-payrolls drop last week Read More »
Prior was -1.2% Sales of C$71.0 billion Gains in 12 of 21 subsectors led by motor vehicles +12.0% Sales down 1.1% y/y Sales up 0.2% q/q Inventories -1.2% Unfilled orders +0.4% The drop in inventories is going to be a drag on Q4 GDP and the sales numbers in the quarter aren’t particularly inspiring either.
Canada December manufacturing sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expected Read More »
NZDUSD stays rangebound ahead of the RBNZ decision: traders expect no change to the OCR Oil prices in the spotlight ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva Silver’s faltering recovery last week not a good early sign It’s a big week for the British Pound as major UK economic data loom
investingLive European FX news wrap: Markets rangebound amid US holiday Read More »
Well, that seems to have been quite a short meeting. For some context, they were scheduled to meet at 0800 GMT (5pm Tokyo time) and it’s over and done with in less than 20 minutes. This is their first meeting since the snap election results, which resulted in a landslide victory for Takaichi and her
Prior was 282.4K Starts down 15% m/m Non-seasonally adjusted starts -3.5% m/m Canada’s housing construction picture in Q4 2025 told a story of fading momentum punctuated by a strong December finish. For the full year, CMHC reported total housing starts of 259,028 units across all areas, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 — the fifth-highest
Canada January housing starts 238.0K vs 257.5K expected Read More »
Japan bear flips & now bets on yen strength vs dollar, sterling & franc (sees +8% vs. CHF) Japan PM and BOJ chief Ueda will meet today at 5pm Tokyo time Westpac targets 1.22 for EUR/USD and $1.41 GBP/USD (long horizon) China deploys ‘national team’ investors to cool AI stock surge, selling intervention Japan junior
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen lost ground on poor GDP data Read More »
GDP growth fell well short of estimates. Preview is here I’ll have more to come on this separately, details and analysis. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Japan’s economic growth in Q4 2025 misses estimates Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny
NZDUSD stays rangebound ahead of the RBNZ decision: traders expect no change to the OCR Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil prices came under some pressure in the final part of last week as we got a couple of bearish catalysts. On the US-Iran negotiations front, there have been many mixed signals, but it looks like the Iranians are willing to compromise given the bleak consequences that a no-deal could have. In
Oil prices in the spotlight ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva Read More »
NZ services expand modestly, but confidence and hiring remain subdued. Summary: PSI slips but stays in expansion, easing to 50.9 from 51.5 and remaining above the 50 threshold. Growth below long-run average, with January’s reading under the historical norm of 52.8. Activity and new orders positive, signalling ongoing turnover and forward demand support. Employment and
New Zealand services sector expands in January but momentum eases Read More »
It’s a holiday in the US today and markets are closed but it’s also a holiday in China as lunar new year celebrations back up. The most-watched TV show in China annually is the CCTV Spring Festival gala and in the past few years, it’s turned into a demostration of the cutting edge of humanoid
Watch: China’s most-watched TV program of the year features impressive humanoid robots Read More »
Sometimes in life, we always go by the principle of using Occam’s razor to work things out. It’s not so much the best thing to abide by when trading, but one of the best principles I find in trading is to always keep things simple. That is also in part what Greg tends to preach
Silver’s faltering recovery last week not a good early sign Read More »
BofA argues that the dollar remains in a precarious spot and while there is plenty of focus on China diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets, it is Europe that should be watched more closely instead. As a reminder, the US Treasury will be releasing its TIC report for December 2025 later this week on 18 February.
Structural selling in the dollar more likely to come from Europe – BofA Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Eurozone industrial production data. This is rarely a market-moving report and in any case, it’s not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we just have
What are the main events for today? Read More »
Monday begins quietly, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In China, markets will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, the focus will be on inflation data. Wednesday brings the RBNZ monetary
Market outlook for the week of 16th-20th February Read More »
Credit Agricole is out with a note at the end of last week saying that the dollar will remain in the crosshairs for trading this week. That as traders will have plenty to look forward to this week as well, following the key economic data trifecta last week. The firm argues that all things considered,
Dollar rebalancing theme to remain in focus this week – Credit Agricole Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny
USDJPY consolidates at a major trendline as traders await new catalysts for direction Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny
It’s a big week for the British Pound as major UK economic data loom Read More »
Singapore exports grow solidly but miss forecasts as electronics outpace other sectors. Summary: January NODX rose 9.3% y/y, below expectations of 12.1%. Electronics led gains, driven by integrated circuits and disk media. Non-electronics exports declined, highlighting uneven sector performance. Exports to China, Hong Kong and EU rose, while US and Indonesia shipments fell. Forecasts recently
This follows from the 1.2% growth in 2024 and the 1.3% growth posted in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in 2025. And just for a bit more of a benchmark, the GDP per capita has expanded by 4.8% since 2019. Looking at the details, the industrial sector
Swiss economy estimated to grow by 1.4% overall in 2025 Read More »
Summary: Takaichi and Ueda meet for first time since election win, amid rate-hike speculation. Previous November meeting preceded December hike to 0.75%. Yen has rebounded nearly 3%, after earlier weakness near 160 per dollar. Markets price ~80% chance of April hike, as inflation stays above target. Two BOJ board seats opening, giving Takaichi potential influence
Japan PM and BOJ chief Ueda will meet today at 5pm Tokyo time Read More »
Optimism builds for Chinese equities as policy support and tech innovation offset lingering risks. Summary: Chinese equities rallied strongly in 2025, supported by exports, AI advances and policy easing. Technology and housing stabilisation policies are key areas of investor optimism. Corporate governance and capital returns improving, with rising dividends and buybacks. Earnings growth expected to
Investors turn optimistic on Chinese tech and housing policies into Lunar New Year Read More »
Beijing deploys state-linked investors to moderate AI-driven stock speculation. ps. Chinese markets are closed this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: China’s “national team” selling equities, aiming to cool AI-driven speculation. Shift from traditional buyer role, previously used to stabilise markets during downturns. ~US$110bn ETF
China deploys ‘national team’ investors to cool AI stock surge, selling intervention Read More »
Westpac says US resilience limits scope for further Fed easing. Summary: US growth remains resilient, with activity tracking above trend despite uncertainty. Labour market stable, unemployment steady around 4.3% and wage growth firm. Household balance sheets strong, wealth at record highs supporting consumption. Inflation risks persist, particularly in core services, complicating Fed easing. Westpac delays
Westpac: US resilience may delay final Fed rate cut to June 2026 Read More »
Japan junior coalition partner leader urges tax relief while defending BOJ independence. Summary: Junior coalition leader backs swift food tax suspension, targeting fiscal 2026 rollout. Foreign reserves flagged as funding option, potentially reducing need for new debt issuance. BOJ independence emphasised, with rate decisions left to the central bank. Further rate hikes possible, given weak
Japan junior coalition leader backs food tax suspension, defends BOJ independence Read More »
Investor turns bullish on Japan bonds and yen after election clarity. Summary: Bloomberg reports Nash turns bullish on JGBs, buying 10-year bonds after election clarity. Political stability seen as catalyst, with yields falling sharply since Takaichi’s win. Yen bought versus dollar and sterling, marking strategic FX repositioning. Forecast 8–9% yen appreciation, particularly against the Swiss
Not too much change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1875 USD/JPY 152.66 GBP/USD 1.3641 AUD/USD 0.7072 USD/CAD 1.3609 USD/CHF 0.7685 NZD/USD 0.6033 I’ll be back with weekend news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Monday open indicative forex prices, 16 February 2026 Read More »
New Zealand retail card spending -1.1% m/m in January, reversing December’s +0.1%. Total card spending also declined, -0.7% on the month after a 1.0% fall previously. In annual terms, electronic retail card spending edged up 0.4% y/y. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail
New Zealand January card spending mixed messages Read More »
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. Considering that US markets are closed today, there is a notable lack of interest on the expiries board to start the week. That being said, there is one that could still factor into play. And that is for
FX option expiries for 16 February 10am New York cut Read More »
Beijing pivots toward consumption-led growth as export reliance faces mounting global headwinds. While Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on Sunday, take note that Chinese markets are closed all this week: Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Summary: Xi pivots toward domestic demand, calling consumption and investment the
Xi Jinping pushes domestic demand as China braces for rising global trade uncertainty Read More »
IMF says Australia is landing softly, but inflation and global risks demand policy vigilance. Summary: IMF sees Australia achieving a soft landing, with growth rebounding to around 2% after a weak 2024. Inflation eased then re-accelerated, with underlying price pressures back above 3% in late 2025. Growth expected to hold near 2% in 2026, supported
Washington escalates sanctions enforcement with another long-range tanker interception. Posting this with Globex oil trade about to open for the new week. Summary: US boards second tanker, intercepting the Panama-flagged Veronica III in the Indian Ocean. Operation followed long-distance tracking from the Caribbean amid sanctions enforcement. Vessel carried 1.9 million barrels and is sanctioned by
Weekend – US boards second Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Indian Ocean Read More »
Japan ekes out Q4 growth, but momentum remains weak despite easing tariff drag. Summary Q4 GDP barely positive, rising 0.1% q/q and 0.2% annualised, well below expectations. Private consumption slowed, up 0.1% q/q amid persistent food price pressures. Capex underwhelmed, increasing just 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%. Exports fell 0.3%, with external demand contributing zero
Japan Q4 GDP rises just 0.2% annualised, misses forecasts & keeps BoJ on cautious path Read More »
The key market influence today is the closure of Chinese mainland markets and half days on ly in Hong Kong and Singapore (more detail below the screenshot). The calendar lists China house price data due today. These were published last week: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m Japanese
Sun: Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q4) Mon: US Holiday (Washington’s Birthday/Presidents Day); Eurogroup Meeting; Swedish Unemployment (Jan), EZ Industrial Production (Dec) Tue: RBA Minutes (Feb); UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, Canadian CPI (Jan), NY Fed (Feb), Chinese Lunar New Year (Hong Kong markets closed from 17th-19th Feb) Wed: RBNZ Announcement, FOMC Minutes
Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE and GDP, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, Flash PMIs, UK and Canada CPI Read More »
Bitcoin Futures are hovering near $68,800 in mid-February 2026, attempting to stabilize after a sharp retracement from last year’s surge above $110,000. At the same time, Ethereum Futures are trading close to $2,050, nearly 50% below their prior highs above $4,000. While crypto appears to be “holding,” the broader backdrop tells a more complex story.
Bitcoin Holds $68.8K While Ethereum Slides Toward $2k as Nasdaq Cools in February 2026 Read More »
US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected Fed’s Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI report US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output
investingLive Americas market news wrap: CPI lower but US stock markets fade late Read More »
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments: Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPI We are still seeing pretty high services inflation Hopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffs The job market has been steady, only modest cooling Rates can still go down but need to
Fed’s Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI report Read More »
The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs. The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be ‘decision
US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day Read More »
We are done with the big banks and Big Tech. Now we get the real economy. Next week’s earnings calendar is a tug-of-war between the resilient service-spending consumer and the battered industrial/goods sector. Here is the playbook for the week. Walmart (WMT) Thursday (Before Open) If “General Merch” (electronics, clothes, home goods) is positive, the
The earnings calendar cools next week but we get a look at the consumer giant Read More »
Sector Overview: A Mixed Day Across the Market The stock market today showcases a complex landscape, with varied performances across sectors. Leading the charge, the healthcare sector is basking in green, while technology shows a mix of highs and lows. 📈 Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 1.40%, riding on positive sentiments, while Merck (MRK)
Market struggles with mixed signals: Technology and healthcare sector highlight Read More »
US stocks have turned around nicely today led by the Russell 2000, which is up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and eyes are on software stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% after an utterly bruising performance so far this year. I’m careful not to lean too hard on
The Friday trade returns. US stocks make a recovery Read More »
New yuan loans ¥4.71 trillion vs ¥5.00 trillion expected China’s new bank loans surged in January, as is typical of the new year. Looking back to 2025, this figure was ¥5.13 trillion in January last year. That said, the figure this time around misses on estimates but is still a big one in preparation of
China January M2 money supply +9.0% vs +8.4% y/y expected Read More »
Lagarde to speak at Munich Security Conference: what to watch and how markets may trade it. Summary: ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled for opening remarks at a Munich Security Conference roundtable on trade dependencies and global supply chains. Time: 17:30 CET, Saturday 14 Feb (11:30 US EST). It’s not a formal ECB policy event,
Weekend risk: Lagarde to speak at Munich Security Conference as ECB stays data-dependent Read More »
It’s a mixed up week with non-farm payrolls already passed but CPI scheduled for today. It’s a big one as it could re-frame the debate about how many rate cuts are possible. Notably, despite the strong non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, the market isn’t convinced the Fed will hold. Year-end pricing for rate cuts is up
US consumer price index data coming up next. What to watch for Read More »
It’s not a proper investing theme until there is an acronym. I’ve been writing for a few weeks about old economy stocks making a comeback but it’s been tough to frame exactly the kinds of companies that are best built for what’s coming. The market is frightened by disruption and that’s why software stocks have
The haven from the AI disruption might be a HALO Read More »
Prior +2.9% HICP +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% The numbers here are slightly softer than what the initial estimates indicated. And they reflect a material decline in headline annual inflation to start the new year. That being said, core prices still represent the most important detail in this report and it is the
Spain January final CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Read More »
Prior was +2.7% m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior m/m reading was +0.3% Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%) Core inflation : Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior ex food and energy +2.5% Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior core m/m +0.2% Core goods +1.1%
US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected Read More »
PBOC’s emphasis on overnight repo rate sparks talk of policy framework shift. Summary: PBOC elevates focus on overnight repo rate Monthly report reordered to highlight overnight benchmark Potential shift away from 7-day reverse repo focus Overnight rate already trading close to policy rate Signals possible evolution in policy framework The People’s Bank of China has
PBOC’s focus on overnight rate fuels speculation of policy shift Read More »
US CPI preview: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments? Headlines: US futures drop lower as equities look to end the week with a whimper Gold at risk of another selloff as traders turn their focus to the US CPI
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? Read More »
It might be the result of a brutally cold winter so far but Canadian consumer spending dipped in January, according to the latest spending tracker from RBC. Using cardholder data, Canada’s largest bank indicated that spending fell across discretionary goods, services and essentials in the month. The bank downplayed the decline, noting that it came
Canadian consumer spending dipped in January – RBC cardholder data Read More »
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 58 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 48 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 8 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Read More »
Prior +0.1% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. The monthly estimate points to another negative reading (-0.1%), missing slightly on estimates this time around. That will be a slight concern looking out to the year ahead. This marks a fifth consecutive negative monthly estimate after recording flat
Switzerland January CPI +0.1% vs +0.1% y/y expected Read More »
USS Ford strike group will join USS Lincoln carrier strike group in Persian Gulf PBOC’s focus on overnight rate fuels speculation of policy shift BOJ’s Tamura says inflation sticky, sees scope to judge target met by spring China housing market struggles despite “three red lines” removal. 62/70 cities price falls NZ inflation expectations mixed ahead
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen swings on official remarks Read More »
The story from earlier: Japan seizes Chinese fishing vessel in EEZ, arrests captain amid rising tensions The legality of the situation might not matter all too much. That especially since China and Japan are already in quite the state of conflict since Japan prime minister Takaichi took over. Her remarks on Japan potentially needing to
Another twist to the tale involving China-Japan geopolitical tensions? Read More »
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9033 Injects CNY 145bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate unchnaged at 1.40% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9398 (vs. estimate at 6.9045) Read More »
Japan arrests Chinese fishing skipper inside its EEZ, adding fresh strain to already tense Tokyo–Beijing ties. Summary: Japan seized a Chinese fishing vessel inside its EEZ off Nagasaki 47-year-old Chinese skipper arrested after allegedly fleeing inspection First seizure of a Chinese vessel since 2022 Incident risks further straining Tokyo–Beijing relations Comes amid elevated tensions over
Japan seizes Chinese fishing vessel in EEZ, arrests captain amid rising tensions Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher following the strong US NFP report on Wednesday as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets, but surprisingly gave back all the gains soon after. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for
The process of disinflation is intact and not complete We need to maintain monetary policy restrictiveness Core inflation is falling again after having stalled I hope inflation expectations will fall with slowing inflation Underlying inflation should be the focus of policy Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hoped Underlying inflation looks more like
BoE’s Pill: Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hoped Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Yesterday, out of the blue, we got a quick selloff in gold without any clear catalyst. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Anyway, the focus now is on the US CPI report today. The
Gold at risk of another selloff as traders turn their focus to the US CPI report Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we have the Swiss CPI and the Eurozone Q4 GDP. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.1% prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the SNB though as policymakers have repeatedly said that the bar for negative rates remains very high and that even
What are the main events for today? Read More »
Software stocks have been under heavy pressure as of late amid concerns of AI disruptions to the space. But yesterday, we’re starting to see that spill over to some other parts of the market you’d least expect. It was quite a blowout in Wall Street: Every industry is one AI headline away from a brutal
AI disruption may be exaggerated, but not the time to buy the dip yet – Jefferies Read More »
If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objects Spoke to the USTR this morning, we’ll see if there’s a narrowing He also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump’s pick to replace Powell. We’ll see where the
US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Same as we saw for gold, yesterday we got a quick selloff in silver without any clear catalyst, although half of the losses were eventually pared back. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Today,
It’s another important day for silver as the US CPI remains a big risk event Read More »
This was already evident when we saw the German and French trade data last week. For some context: US tariffs impact show up in German and French trade numbers, but is there a bigger worry? Of note, German exports to the US last year plunged while French exports were steady at the balance after some
US January 2026 CPI When: Friday, 13 Feb 2026, 1230 GMT / 0830 US Eastern Summary Consensus: headline CPI seen +0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y (down from 2.7% y/y). Core CPI: seen +0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y (down from 2.6% y/y). Nowcast check: Cleveland Fed model is notably cooler than consensus (about +0.13% m/m headline,
NZ manufacturing opens 2026 in solid expansion territory, with production and new orders leading, though confidence softens. Summary: January PMI: 55.2 (vs 56.1 prior) Remains well above 50 → solid expansion Production and new orders lead gains Employment expands for third straight month Positive commentary drops sharply Signals economy has likely turned the corner New
Now is not the time for the ECB to move interest rates We are in a good position to move interest rates in any way if needed We have yet to see the full impact of recent euro appreciation Policymakers are on monitoring mode with regards to the euro strength There are concerns that a
ECB policymaker Kazāks: Now is not the time to move interest rates Read More »
Prior +0.3% There’s no change to the initial estimate with the yearly figure confirmed at 1.3% as well. As mentioned before, this mainly reaffirms a more resilient showing by the euro area economy in ending last year. As for annual growth for 2025 as a whole, GDP is seen increasing by 1.5% for the year.
Eurozone Q4 GDP second estimate +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim Read More »
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9045 – Reuters estimate Read More »
The sources are saying that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes starting from April. However, the bloc has not yet made a firm decision on the matter and that talks will continue ahead of their 1 March meeting. The headline is enough to bring about a dip in oil prices, with WTI crude
Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output hikes from April Read More »
Tamura flags sticky inflation and positive output gap, signalling scope for further BOJ rate hikes. Summary: BOJ’s Tamura says inflation becoming “sticky” Price target may be judged achieved as early as spring Output gap already positive Yen weakness a renewed inflation risk Policy still accommodative at 0.75% Neutral rate likely at least around 1% Signals
BOJ’s Tamura says inflation sticky, sees scope to judge target met by spring Read More »
Spotify Stock Analysis After Earnings: Why SPOT’s Post-Earnings Rally Faded and What Technical Structure Suggests Next Spotify (SPOT) delivered a strong earnings reaction, initially triggering a powerful upside move. However, much of that rally has since faded, leaving traders asking an important question: Was this a healthy pullback within a bullish shift, or early evidence
SPOT Stock Analysis After Earnings Read More »
IC Markets Global has been recognised by TradingView as the “Social Champion” at the 2025 TradingView Broker Awards, highlighting the broker’s strong engagement and connection with the global trading community. The Social Champion award recognises brokers that stand out on TradingView through active participation, meaningful interaction, and consistent engagement with traders across the platform’s social
IC Markets Global Named TradingView “Social Champion” at the 2025 Broker Awards Read More »
It’s a light sort of calendar, with the RBNZ info of note. Fed speakers include Miran, who always calls for lower rates. And Logan, we heard from her earlier in the week: ICYMI – Fed officials signal patience as rates seen near neutral and inflation lingers This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Economic and event calendar in Asia Friday, February 13, 2026 – we hear from the RBNZ Read More »
The report says that the US president is planning to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods, largely as a move to bolster his public image ahead of the November midterm elections. As a reminder, Trump slapped steel and aluminium imports with tariffs of up to 50% last year and even expanded that
Trump reportedly weighs up plans to scale back on steel and aluminium tariffs Read More »
The meeting was said to take place in Beijing on Thursday, with representatives from 60 German companies being in attendance. Of note, the list of German firms included the likes of BASF, BMW Group, and Bayer. The commerce ministry then reaffirmed that both China and Germany remain “committed to a fair and stable business environment”.
China holds roundtable meeting with big German companies in Beijing Read More »
China’s housing slump deepens as January prices post steepest annual drop in seven months. Earlier on this here: China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m adding a little more now: Summary: China new home prices fall 0.4% m/m, -3.1% y/y in January Annual decline steepest in seven months 62
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being a rather large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. The expiries hold close to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1846 currently and that together, that could keep a floor on price action in the session ahead.
FX option expiries for 13 February 10am New York cut Read More »
We’re starting to see the pressure build up again as we look to European morning trade today. That after the heavy selling in Wall Street amid continued concerns on the AI trade and potential disruptions surrounding the technology itself. It’s creating quite a vortex of volatility, and it is one that might take some time
US futures drop lower as equities look to end the week with a whimper Read More »
Microsoft is widely (and rightly) seen as a defining company of the past 50 years. It’s changed the world completely, is ubiquitous, highly profitable and among the most-valuable in the world. People also forget that for a decade, it was a joke in the stock market. The Steve Balmer era was a disaster and coincided
Reminder: Multiple compression can happen to any company and to every company Read More »
RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% as inflation expectations send mixed signals and hike bets build for 2026. Summary: RBNZ widely expected to hold OCR at 2.25% on February 18 Inflation at 3.1%, above 1–3% target band Rate cuts since 2024 total 325bp Hike expectations for end-2026 rising Futures price ~60% chance of hike by
NZ inflation expectations mixed ahead of likely RBNZ on hold decision February 18 Read More »
USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group redirected from Caribbean to Middle East, extending deployment into spring. Summary: USS USS Gerald R. Ford and escort ships will be rerouted from the Caribbean to the Middle East, delaying their return home until late April or early May. This redeployment will see the Ford strike group join
USS Ford strike group will join USS Lincoln carrier strike group in Persian Gulf Read More »
UBS: SNB unlikely to resist franc strength; EUR/CHF seen at 0.95 in 12 months. Summary: UBS says SNB unlikely to react forcefully to recent franc rally. Inflation outlook subdued but not deflationary, limiting case for rate cuts. Sporadic FX intervention possible, but not a sustained defence. German fiscal expansion seen supporting euro. UBS forecasts EUR/CHF
UBS: SNB unlikely to fight franc rally, sees EUR/CHF at 0.95 in 12 months Read More »
Takaichi adviser signals no need for reflationist BOJ picks as Japan exits deflation, March hike seen unlikely. Summary: PM adviser Honda says BOJ board picks need not be reflationists Japan described as having exited deflation BOJ may have scope to hike this year March hike seen as unlikely Board nominations due as early as Feb
Bank of Japan (BOJ) likely to avoid March rate hike, Japan PM adviser says Read More »
China’s housing slump deepens as January prices fall 3.1% y/y, extending multi-year downturn. Summary: Deflationary property trend deepens Developer balance sheets remain strained Debt overhang continues to weigh on sector Policy support yet to generate sustained turnaround China’s property downturn showed little sign of stabilising in January, with new home prices falling 3.1% year-on-year, deepening
China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m Read More »
Japan signals steady but hard-fought progress on U.S. investment talks ahead of Takaichi’s Washington visit. Summary: Japan’s trade minister met U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick Discussed progress on Japan’s US-bound investment package Talks described as tough, some distance remains Push to accelerate first batch of projects Promoted Japanese farm exports, including beef Explored joint projects on
Japan advances U.S. investment package talks but negotiations remain tough Read More »
Trump says they could have a deal with Iran over the next month But he will talk with Iran as long as he likes We have to make a deal with Iran This should be a negative for oil, which is already down $2 to $62.64 today. This article was written by Adam Button at
Trump: We have to make a deal with Iran, could come over the next month Read More »
US weekly initial jobless claims 227K vs 222K expected US January existing home sales 3.91m vs 4.18m expected Trump: We have to make a deal with Iran, could come over the next month US sells 30-year bonds at 4.750% vs 4.771% WI Netanyahu says Trump may reach good deal with Iran US January CPI report
investingLive Americas FX news wrap: Big flight to safety on AI disruption worries Read More »
Two industries are getting smoked today that had previously been on the sidelines of the AI trade: Freight brokers/trucking Office real estate Here is a look at CH Robinson, which is one of the largest third-party logistics companies in the world. They arrange transportation between shippers and carriers and take a margin in return. It’s
Every industry is one AI headline away from a brutal rout Read More »
Results of the 30-year Treasury auction. Prior was 4.825% Bid to cover 2.66 vs 2.42 prior Treasuries have been bid today, lowering yields by 4 bps at the long end to 4.77% ahead of the auction. That’s a result of a poor tone in the US stock market. Yields extended their decline following the result
US sells 30-year bonds at 4.750% vs 4.771% WI Read More »
Japan signals vigilance on FX as Mimura issues low-key verbal warning Summary: Japan’s top currency official says authorities are watching FX “with high urgency.” Refuses to comment on specific exchange-rate levels. Says Tokyo is in close contact with US authorities. Emphasises Japan is “not lowering its guard.” Tone measured but US reference notable. Japan’s top
Japan’s Mimura says watching FX with urgency, flags close US contact Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.
USDCAD consolidates at 2025 lows: USMCA risk weighs on the CAD, hot NFP boosts the USD Read More »
There is no letup in the software rout. The question is whether we’ve crossed some kind of rubicon where we are pricing in mass disruption due to AI. The flashpoint seemed to be the release of Claude Plugins but it’s been a long time coming. The simple thesis is that AI makes it much easier
Software stocks continue to take a beating Read More »
Gold was slammed lower in an instant for unclear reasons. The move has come with some broad US dollar bids across the board. Cable underscores the move as it’s fallen back to flat on the day. The drop in gold and rise in the dollar could have been triggered by broader risk aversion. US stocks
Gold takes a $100 dive Read More »
The report says ahead of Trump’s visit to China in April, the US administration is putting on ice a number of key tech security measures that are targeted at Beijing. The sources say that Washington does not want to kick up a fuss, after having already seen a trade detente between Trump and Xi back
US-China trade truce sees a number of key China tech curbs being shelved – report Read More »
Prior was 4.35m Home sales change -8.4% vs +5.1% prior Days on the market 46 vs 41 prior Inventory at 3.7 months Median prices $396,800, up 0.9% y/y This is the worst reading since September 2024 and is a sharp reversal from what looked like a nice recovery. I tend to think this is a
US January existing home sales 3.91m vs 4.18m expected Read More »
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump yesterday, largely about Iran. Since the meeting, oil prices have come under pressure as Trump, and now Netanyahu, have emphasized negotiations. Netanyahu said he was skeptical there would be success but said that Iran likely realized they made a mistake and didn’t reach a deal last time.
Netanyahu says Trump may reach good deal with Iran Read More »
Prior +0.1% GDP +1.0% vs +1.2% y/y expected Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2% The headline figure might point to marginal growth on the quarter, but UK real GDP per capita is now down for two consecutive quarters. So, that is something to take note of. That being said, real GDP per capita is still estimated
UK Q4 preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expected Read More »
Summary: RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter says labour market has stabilised but remains tight. Bank closely assessing capacity pressures and inflation persistence. Inflation expected to remain above 2–3% target for some time. Recent slowdown driven by fewer vacancies and hiring, not higher unemployment. Remarks reinforce Governor Bullock’s warning that further hikes remain possible Reserve Bank
RBA’s Sarah Hunter says labour market tight, inflation to stay above target Read More »
🗂 Sector Overview: Emerging Leaders and Lagging Sectors The semiconductor sector is witnessing a remarkable upswing today, with major players like NVIDIA (NVDA) climbing 1.46% and Micron Technology (MU) surging by 4.32%. These gains underscore a renewed investor confidence amid news of advancements in chip technologies. On the other hand, the consumer cyclicals are facing
Semiconductors surge as healthcare leads gains, consumer stocks face headwinds Read More »
Prior was 231K (revised to 232K) Four-week moving average 219.5K vs 212.5K prior Continuing claims 1862K vs 1850K expected Prior continuing claims 1844K (revised to 1841K) Last week, the market was rattled by the job in initial jobless claims. Prior to that, for the week ending January 17, 2026, initial claims rose slightly by 1,000
US weekly initial jobless claims 227K vs 222K expected Read More »
Rupee firms after suspected RBI FX intervention Hedge funds boost yen bets as buy Japan trade strengthens — Bloomberg Tokyo keeps intervention risk alive as yen swings. Mimura recap. Precious metals retreat after US payroll surprise Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen continued to strengthen Read More »
The dollar is a little lower at the balance in European morning trade, struggling to build on the gains from after the stronger non-farm payrolls data yesterday. The US jobs report was a solid one, reaffirming another strong January print with beats in both payrolls and the unemployment rate. The latter even coming despite a
Dollar struggles to build on post-NFP gains, focus turns to CPI next Read More »
Lunar New Year (LNY) 2026 brings thin liquidity and China-offshore price discovery, with travel/consumption the key narrative. Summary: Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb. Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24. Hong Kong has half-day trading on Mon Feb 16, is
Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23 Read More »
Summary: Traders say RBI likely sold US dollars before local market open. Rupee strengthened. Intervention reportedly conducted via large state-run bank. Move surprised market participants. Action occurred just before 9:00 a.m. IST spot open India’s central bank is believed to have stepped into currency markets ahead of Thursday’s local trading session, helping the rupee open
Rupee firms after suspected RBI FX intervention Read More »
For some context, this relates to the earlier headline: China now tries to play nice with the EU with latest trade rulings As mentioned then, China has moved forward to finalise 11.7% tariffs on EU dairy products starting from 13 February. It sounds bad initially but context matters here. The provisional rates for these tariffs
European Commission responds after China sets duties on EU dairy earlier today Read More »
There were some encouraging signs for precious metals in the run up to the US jobs report yesterday. However, buyers didn’t quite get the right kind of trigger to solidify their conviction and we’re seeing things reset in the aftermath. Gold had nudged above $5,100 briefly while silver also pushed above its 200-hour moving average
Precious metals hold more rangebound again after the US jobs report Read More »
This week is all about key US economic data releases. And after the non-farm payrolls data yesterday, we’re not quite done yet as the consumer price inflation (CPI) report is what will bookend the week tomorrow. It’s a rare week in markets where we get a trifecta of big data from the US, but it
US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments? Read More »
Stable jobs, sticky inflation — the Fed stays cautious and data-dependent. Summary: President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Beth Hammack says unemployment appears to be stabilising. Labour market described as broadly in balance. Inflation remains above target and “still too high.” Consumer spending holding up, led by higher-income households. Fed’s focus
Fed’s Hammack says unemployment stabilising but inflation still too high Read More »
There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some largish ones for EUR/USD at the 1.1750-60 levels but they aren’t likely to feature into play. The dollar is firmer after the stronger US jobs report yesterday but not really enough to set off
FX option expiries for 12 February 10am New York cut Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.
The US Dollar fails to rally on the hot NFP: signal of weakness or caution ahead of CPI? Read More »
Headlines: Dollar struggles to build on post-NFP gains, focus turns to CPI next The US Dollar fails to rally on the hot NFP: signal of weakness or caution ahead of CPI? Precious metals hold more rangebound again after the US jobs report How has the Fed outlook changed after the hot US jobs report yesterday?
investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steady on mixed markets after payrolls Read More »
Funds flip long yen as “buy Japan” momentum builds. Summary: Hedge funds are rebuilding bullish yen positions, per Bloomberg. USD/JPY falls for a third straight session despite strong US jobs data. Options markets show rising demand for downside dollar-yen protection. “Buy Japan” narrative seen supporting yen alongside equities. Election clarity and intervention rhetoric add to
Hedge funds boost yen bets as buy Japan trade strengthens — Bloomberg Read More »
SCMP reports Trump and Xi may meet in Beijing in early April and extend their trade truce by up to a year, including further tariff rollback and new Chinese purchase pledges. China has resumed US soybean buys ahead of the summit. Summary: Trump and Xi are expected to meet in Beijing in early April, per
SCMP: Trump and Xi to extend trade truce at April Beijing summit Read More »
The market isn’t pricing in any more cuts from the Bank of Canada, so they’re data watching and there isn’t much in the commentary that could be market moving. Agreed ahead of Jan 28 decision that the rate was on the stimulative side Uncertainty over the pace and scale of structural adjustment made growth, potential
Bank of Canada minutes: Agreed they would need to maintain optionality in setting rates Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq has been consolidating since Monday as traders awaited the US NFP and CPI reports this week. We got the NFP yesterday and it was a hot one as it beat expectations by a big margin with the unemployment rate falling further to 4.3% despite an increase in participation rate. The market
The Nasdaq remains stuck in consolidation as traders await the US CPI report Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been stuck in a consolidation below the 7K level since Monday as traders awaited the US NFP and CPI reports this week. We got the NFP report yesterday and it was a hot one as it beat expectations by a big margin with the unemployment rate falling further to
Good news is good news for the S&P 500 as long as inflation stays in check Read More »
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK Q4 GDP report. The data was slightly weaker than expected but didn’t change materially the current BoE outlook, so the market reaction was limited. We don’t have much on the agenda for the rest of the session, so the price action will likely
What are the main events for today? Read More »
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9106 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9457 (vs. estimate at 6.9153) Read More »
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar spiked higher yesterday following a strong US NFP report as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets but surprisingly gave back all the gains. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI.
USDJPY fades quickly NFP gains and falls to a key trendline; US CPI in focus now Read More »
The two sides are having to rely on one another in trying to make the best out of a tough situation brought about by US tariffs. France did stir the pot a little with some controversial headlines below but as a reminder, that isn’t the official stance by the French government but mere advice for
China now tries to play nice with the EU with latest trade rulings Read More »
I’ll have more to come on this separately, details, BoJ implications etc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Japan January 2026 wholesale inflation. PPI 2.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.3%) Read More »
SoftBank earnings today showed that the firm swung back into profit in its fiscal third quarter, largely driven by founder Masayoshi Son’s large and growing investment in OpenAI. For some context, SoftBank made a staggering $41 billion investment in OpenAI last year. And that now sees the firm hold approximately 11% stake in OpenAI. It’s
SoftBank says nothing has been decided about additional funding round in OpenAI Read More »
Oil falls after Trump says his preference is for a deal with Iran Bank of Canada minutes: Agreed they would need to maintain optionality in setting rates US sells 10-year notes at 4.177% vs 4.163% WI EIA weekly crude oil inventories +8530K vs +793K expected Mexican President Sheinbaum: I do not believe the US will
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Non-farm payrolls blasts through expectations Read More »
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9153 – Reuters estimate Read More »
Summary: Michele Bullock is appearing before the Senate Economics Committee amid fresh scrutiny of monetary policy after the RBA raised rates. The RBA recently lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%, the first hike in more than two years, citing persistent inflation pressures. Inflation remains above target, and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaking in parliament Read More »
Washington signals credible military escalation risk as Iran nuclear talks hang in the balance. There has been plenty of chatter about on this, firming up now. Wall Street Journal reporting. Summary Pentagon orders a second carrier strike group to prepare for possible Middle East deployment. Donald Trump weighing move as pressure builds on Iran nuclear
Further news of US readying second aircraft carrier as Iran nuclear talks face pressure Read More »
Silver’s explosive rally lifts 2026 targets, but substitution risks loom. Summary: J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts silver to average $81/oz in 2026. Silver surged nearly 130% in 2025, from $29 to above $70/oz. Industrial demand and tariff uncertainty were major drivers. Warsh Fed nomination triggered sharp precious metals pullback. Substitution risk in solar could cap
J.P. Morgan sees silver at $81/oz in 2026 after 130% surge Read More »
Summary: Japan says it has not lowered its guard against FX volatility. Atsushi Mimura reiterates high-urgency monitoring stance. Refuses to comment on speculation of rate checks. Yen rebounds sharply from near 160 per dollar. Close contact with US authorities emphasised. Japan’s top currency official reiterated that authorities remain on high alert over foreign exchange volatility,
Tokyo keeps intervention risk alive as yen swings. Mimura recap. Read More »
There were a lot of positive takeaways from the US jobs report yesterday here. That at least if you’re a dollar bull, with the numbers offering plenty in terms of reaffirming steadier labour market conditions to start the new year. That being said, I would be remiss not to point out that one data point
How has the Fed outlook changed after the hot US jobs report yesterday? Read More »
Summary: Gold and silver dip. Strong January US jobs data dents near-term rate cut hopes. Spot gold near $5,060; silver slips after sharp prior rally. Markets eye jobless claims and US inflation data next. Iran diplomacy headlines linger in background. Gold prices are rangebound in early Asia trade, as a firmer U.S. dollar capped momentum
Precious metals retreat after US payroll surprise Read More »
A light data agenda for the session today. Japan’s January wholesale inflation data will be of some interest. Higher than expected should be yen supportive and vice versa. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, February 12, 2026 – Japan PPI Read More »
Fed near neutral, staying patient — but watching inflation and debt risks. Summary: Beth Hammack says fed funds rate is “right around neutral.” Labour market broadly balanced; unemployment stabilising. Fed well positioned to stay on hold — no need to fine-tune policy. Local contacts report growth picking up. Warns US government debt is on an
Fed’s Hammack says rates near neutral, backs hold stance and flags US debt risks Read More »
Bullock: higher AUD and rates doing the work — but more hikes still possible Summary: Governor Bullock says a higher Australian dollar and higher interest rates will help cool demand back into balance. Australia may struggle to grow above ~2% sustainably without a lift in productivity. Further rate rises are not pre-committed: getting inflation down
Bullock: higher AUD and rates will cool demand, RBA open to more hikes if needed Read More »
