Oil falls after Trump says his preference is for a deal with Iran Bank of Canada minutes: Agreed they would need to maintain optionality in setting rates US sells 10-year notes at 4.177% vs 4.163% WI EIA weekly crude oil inventories +8530K vs +793K expected Mexican President Sheinbaum: I do not believe the US will […]

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Michele Bullock is appearing before the Senate Economics Committee amid fresh scrutiny of monetary policy after the RBA raised rates. The RBA recently lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%, the first hike in more than two years, citing persistent inflation pressures. Inflation remains above target, and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has

Washington signals credible military escalation risk as Iran nuclear talks hang in the balance. There has been plenty of chatter about on this, firming up now. Wall Street Journal reporting. Summary Pentagon orders a second carrier strike group to prepare for possible Middle East deployment. Donald Trump weighing move as pressure builds on Iran nuclear

Silver’s explosive rally lifts 2026 targets, but substitution risks loom. Summary: J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts silver to average $81/oz in 2026. Silver surged nearly 130% in 2025, from $29 to above $70/oz. Industrial demand and tariff uncertainty were major drivers. Warsh Fed nomination triggered sharp precious metals pullback. Substitution risk in solar could cap

There were a lot of positive takeaways from the US jobs report yesterday here. That at least if you’re a dollar bull, with the numbers offering plenty in terms of reaffirming steadier labour market conditions to start the new year. That being said, I would be remiss not to point out that one data point

Summary: Gold and silver dip. Strong January US jobs data dents near-term rate cut hopes. Spot gold near $5,060; silver slips after sharp prior rally. Markets eye jobless claims and US inflation data next. Iran diplomacy headlines linger in background. Gold prices are rangebound in early Asia trade, as a firmer U.S. dollar capped momentum

A light data agenda for the session today. Japan’s January wholesale inflation data will be of some interest. Higher than expected should be yen supportive and vice versa. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed near neutral, staying patient — but watching inflation and debt risks. Summary: Beth Hammack says fed funds rate is “right around neutral.” Labour market broadly balanced; unemployment stabilising. Fed well positioned to stay on hold — no need to fine-tune policy. Local contacts report growth picking up. Warns US government debt is on an

Bullock: higher AUD and rates doing the work — but more hikes still possible Summary: Governor Bullock says a higher Australian dollar and higher interest rates will help cool demand back into balance. Australia may struggle to grow above ~2% sustainably without a lift in productivity. Further rate rises are not pre-committed: getting inflation down

Japan’s PPI is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index. Its an indicator to ‘wholesale’ inflation. Data post earlier is here ICYMI: Japan January 2026 wholesale inflation. PPI 2.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.3%) Japan wholesale inflation slows, but yen import prices edge higher Japan’s January CGPI rises 2.3% y/y, slowing from 2.4%. In line

House votes 219–211 to terminate Trump’s Canada tariffs Summary: House passes resolution 219–211 to terminate Trump’s tariffs on Canada. Measure led by Gregory Meeks. Six Republicans joined Democrats; one Democrat voted no. Resolution targets the national emergency underpinning the tariffs. Must pass the Senate and survive a likely presidential veto. The U.S. House of Representatives

UK housing downturn eases as January RICS balance improves Summary: UK January RICS house price balance rises to -10 from revised -13. Beat Reuters poll expectation of -11. New buyer enquiries improve to highest since July. 12-month sales expectations jump to strongest since Dec 2024. Early signs of stabilisation, though activity remains subdued. Britain’s housing

Trump posted this on Truth Social: I have just finished meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, of Israel, and various of his Representatives. It was a very good meeting, the tremendous relationship between our two Countries continues. There was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not

ING sees the yen strengthening as Japan pairs looser fiscal policy with tighter BOJ settings while the Fed moves toward further easing. I’m a little wary of this, the current signalling out of the Fed seems to be on hold: ICYMI – Fed officials signal patience as rates seen near neutral and inflation lingers Summary:

Prior was 4.173% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It is a tough time to be a public software company. Stocks are getting punished again today: PLTR -4.2% APP -6.2% INTU -5.6% ADBE -2.2% ADSK -5.5% WDAY -6.5% ZM -5.8% U -28% (!) The flashpoint was Claude releasing a series of plugins. It has the market re-evaluating the moats and pricing power around software

What’s expected: Consensus estimate +70K (range -10K to +135K) December +37K Private consensus estimate +70K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior Participation rate consensus 62.4% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior 8.4% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.6% y/y vs +3.8% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior Avg weekly hours

It’s not Friday yet but if it feels that way, it’s because we’re minutes away from the non-farm payrolls report. It’s a big one as the Federal Reserve circles the jobs market as a key metric in whether it will cut rates further or hold them here. The data over the past week hasn’t been

This comes in response to the French government strategy report earlier this week which floated the idea of either 30% blanket tariffs on Chinese goods or 30% outright depreciation of the euro against the yuan (à la Plaza Accord style). I posted the details of the story earlier here: France lands in hot water with

Yuan eases (just a little bit) on soft inflation despite firm PBOC guidance House vote failure opens door to Trump tariff repeal efforts ING sees yen recovery as BOJ tightening contrasts with Fed cuts China inflation misses forecasts as producer deflation persists RBA’s Hauser says inflation too high, vows action to return to target. AUD

Further rate cuts could allow higher inflation to persist for longer. Not seeing evidence current level of interest rates is restraining economy. Appropriate to keep restrictive monetary policy with inflation close to 3%. Productivity improvements could allow faster growth without inflation, but ‘we are not there yet’. Current inflation rate indicates still-strong demand is outpacing

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For some context, the French government released a strategy report this week and is one that is meant to be part of an advice to the prime minister as well as to help guide long-term policy setting. Included in that report is a call for the EU to consider either a 30% blanket tariffs on

An interview yesterday on CNBC with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour laid bare the truth. He was grilled by Becky Quick about insider trading on the platform. Mansour highlighted how they investigate suspicious bets but he also seemed to struggle with the difference between the legal obligations that CEOs have in protecting market-moving information and the

This is a notable comment from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum who said she does not believe that Trump with withdraw the US from the USMCA trade agreement. Earlier today, a report from Bloomberg said Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, citing problems with Canada in particular. The president has asked

Prior was +50K November was +56K Two-month net revision -17K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.4% Unrounded unemployment 4.283% vs 4.375% prior Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 8.4% prior Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings 3.7% y/y vs +3.6% expected

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

US jobs report build up: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? What to watch out for in the US labour market report later? Goldman flags substantial downside risk to January jobs report Headlines: USD/JPY continues to unwind the run up

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Italian Industrial Production data which is never a market-moving release and won’t change anything for the ECB anyway. The price action might remain rangebound into the US NFP report later in the day, but I also wouldn’t be surprised

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar came under some more pressure yesterday following soft US Retail Sales and US ECI data. We got a slightly dovish repricing on the back of the weaker data with the market now pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end compared to 58 bps before the data release. The focus

The December non-farm payrolls report was very strong and led to the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% from 4.4% in a surprise twist. Here is WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos after the release: The January jobs report cements the Fed’s extended pause on interest rates. Powell on Jan. 28: “The economy has, once again, surprised us

Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a diverse picture, driven by distinct performances across sectors. Leading the pack is the semiconductor sector, showcasing substantial gains, while the home improvement sector faces headwinds. This dichotomy underlines the varied investor sentiment and sector-specific dynamics at play. 🚀 Semiconductor Surge: A noteworthy rise is seen in

US December retail sales 0.0% vs +0.4% expected Fed’s Logan: If inflation falls and labor market stays stable, no further cuts needed Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is ‘still too high’ and tariff issues still in play US November business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expected US import prices for December 0.1% vs 0.1% expected US employment cost

House Republicans failed to block tariff repeal votes, reopening debate over Trump-era trade measures. Summary: House procedural vote fails 217–214 Johnson effort to block tariff votes collapses Three Republicans break ranks Democrats poised to advance tariff repeal bills Trade policy debate reopens A key procedural vote in the United States House of Representatives failed on

Westpac expects the RBNZ to hold rates steady while modestly bringing forward its first projected hike, without signalling a more aggressive tightening path. Summary: RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% at its February 18 meeting First hike forecast brought forward to Dec 2026 Inflation acknowledged as too high Forecasts still point to gradual disinflation

Prior was -3455K Gasoline+1160K vs -362K Distillates -2703K Refinery utilization -1.1% There were some waves late yesterday when the API survey showed this: Crude +13.4M Gasoline +3.3M Distillates -2.0M There have been some big swings in these numbers lately and I have to assume it’s because some Venezuelan crude is coming into the visible market

Last month, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker was as high as 5.41% and that caused the usual pundits in Washington to declare that growth was running that hot. In fact, it was goosed due to a one-off super-strong October trade balance report. That was followed by a sharp correction lower in November trade and a

Ford’s Q4 earnings missed sharply on tariffs and supply issues, but management sees 2026 as a rebound year driven by Ford Pro and Blue strength. Summary: Ford posts biggest earnings miss in four years Tariffs and supply disruptions hit Q4 results Revenue beats but margins disappoint Model e losses persist despite slight improvement 2026 framed

The dollar is weaker across the board today, extending losses from Monday with USD/JPY eyeing a third consecutive daily decline. It’s a bit of a mixed bag this week with precious metals taking a breather, while stocks and bond yields were dragged down by the softer US retail sales data yesterday here. In continuing with

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is still stuck in a tight consolidation just above the 5000 level as traders await the US NFP and CPI reports. Nothing has changed since Monday. The fundamentals are still skewed against rising prices due to improving US data (not considering the December reports) and easing geopolitical tensions. Today, we will get

As per usual, the three main components will be the headline non-farm payrolls number, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. And typically, we will also get the two-month revision to the payrolls figure. However, this time around will feature the annual adjustments from the benchmark revision up to March 2025. On the latter component,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar came under some more pressure yesterday following soft US Retail Sales and US ECI data. We got a slightly dovish repricing on the back of the weaker data with the market now pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end compared to 58 bps before the data release. The focus

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been slowly recovering the losses in the past days helped by the lack of bearish catalysts, but a crucial US NFP report today could hurt the bulls. In fact, the market is pricing 60 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing

After the more volatile start to the year, the past three days have been extremely calm for precious metals. Gold has been keeping within a $100 range this week while silver is only kept in a $5 horizon. That’s quite something after all the recent volatility spikes and corrective selling since the end of January.

Inflation data from China for January 2025. Preview here. I’ll have more to come on this, analysis and implications, separately. PPI m/m is +0.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Housing finance accelerated into Q4, supporting the “still-warm” domestic demand narrative, but the RBA’s next hike is still more likely May than March. Summary: Q4 housing finance strengthened across owner-occupiers, investors and first-home buyers Value growth outpaced volumes, pointing to larger average loan sizes Investor value growth cooled sharply from Q3’s surge RBA hiked to

Summary: White House revises US-India trade factsheet Reference to pulse tariff cuts removed Digital services language softened Commitment wording adjusted Negotiations appear ongoing The White House has revised its official factsheet outlining U.S.–India trade discussions, quietly removing references to agricultural tariff cuts and softening language around digital trade commitments. In an updated version of the

The yuan eased slightly after weak inflation data, even as the PBOC set a firm midpoint and signalled continued managed currency stability. Summary: Yuan edges lower after soft inflation PBOC sets strongest midpoint since 2023 Loose policy stance reaffirmed Seasonal corporate demand supported currency Exchange-rate stability remains priority China’s yuan edged lower on Wednesday following

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9140 PBOC inject 78.5bn yuan via 7-day RRs @1.4% and 400bn yuan via 14-dayers @1.65% Earlier: ICYMI – PBOC pledges loose policy, ample liquidity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s January inflation data missed expectations and showed persistent producer-price deflation, reinforcing pressure for further policy support. Summary: January CPI +0.2% y/y, below expectations Core inflation eased to 0.8% PPI -1.4% y/y, deflation persists Industrial profitability still pressured PBOC maintains loose policy bias China’s inflation data for January underscored persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. Of course, yen trade continues in other centres. but its thnnier than normal. There is no fresh news. NFP ahead: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high Goldman flags substantial downside risk to January jobs report This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Goldman Sachs expects January U.S. payrolls to undershoot forecasts, citing model effects and subdued hiring signals despite limited layoff pressure. Earlier: Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high Summary: Goldman sees January payrolls at +45k Forecast below market consensus Birth-death model a key downside risk Layoff indicators relatively supportive Labour market

The bitcoin price action is uninspiring and the chart is even worse. The last two weeks has been a disaster in the crypto market and it might not be over yet. Friday’s big bounce from $60,000 was impressive and it came with talk about some kind of idiosyncratic liquidation, with eyes focused on Asia. Yet

There aren’t any major expiries that will factor into play before the US labour market report, with the full list seen below. But if we do get a softer set of jobs data later, that could drag the dollar down further and see the larger one for EUR/USD at 1.2000 potentially factor in. It will

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Limassol, Cyprus – January 2026, The final quarter of 2025 brought a clear shift in market conditions. After a relatively calm Q3, volatility returned in force, and easyMarkets clients responded by increasing activity, particularly in precious metals. According to the broker’s Q4 2025 Market Recap, gold was the most traded instrument of the quarter, with

Fireside chat with Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) Business Leaders’ Series, Sydney. – RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned inflation remains too high and signalled the Bank will tighten further if required to return it to target. Earlier: Australia housing finance jumps in Q4 as markets weigh May

A case of buy the rumour, sell the fact? That seems to be the most plausible explanation, with traders also arguably feeling heavily guarded amid intervention risks. Japan prime minister Takaichi solidified her position with the snap election now giving her a powerful mandate to push forward with her fiscal plans. The Takaichi trade remains

There are reports of a massive US military build up in the Middle East and now this: The WSJ reports that the White House is considering rolling out the Venezuela playbook on Iran. US officials have discussed whether to seize additional tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil to pressure Tehran but have held off so

China’s central bank reiterated a loose policy stance, pledging ample liquidity and stronger support for domestic demand while guarding against financial and currency risks. Summary: PBOC pledges appropriately loose policy Liquidity to remain ample RRR and rate cuts remain options Focus on domestic demand support Yuan flexibility reaffirmed China’s central bank struck a firmly supportive

China’s headline inflation readings for January 2026, the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), will be published today by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These monthly indicators will be closely watched for fresh signals on underlying price trends, demand strength ahead of the Lunar New Year and industrial inflation pressures.

Senior Fed policymakers signalled rates may already be near neutral, favouring patience as inflation remains elevated and labour markets stay resilient. Summary: Fed officials signal patience on rates Policy seen near neutral levels Inflation still the primary concern Labour market holding up so far No rush for further cuts Two senior Federal Reserve policymakers on

JPMorgan sketched out an $8,000 decade-end gold scenario in a late January note as big banks lift targets and WGC data show record 2025 demand. Summary: JPMorgan mapped out a decade-end US$8,000 scenario Upside hinges on private allocation rise Goldman lifted its end-2026 target to US$5,400 WGC flags record 2025 demand 5,002t Macro hedging bid

Via oilprice.com — Oil prices remain firm, though rangebound, so far this week on heightened geopolitical risk and supply-demand signals. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil flows, are keeping risk premiums elevated, with advisories for vessels in the region pushing crude

In coming months if inflation falls, labor market stays stable, no further rate cuts will be needed. More worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high. If see further material cooling in labor market, cutting rates could be appropriate. Current policy stance may be very close to neutral, providing little restraint. Cautiously optimistic current policy stance will

There’s a risk inflation could stick at 3% this year, needs to come down Job market stabilized into low hire, low fire landscape Both sides of Fed’s mandate have been under pressure Expects inflation to ease as year moves forward, but that’s just a forecast Is ‘cautiously optimistic’ about economic outlook Inflation is ‘still too

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1910 level. The expiries are not ones to tie to any technical significance, so the impact might be a bit more limited. The dollar was weaker yesterday and we’re now

Prior was +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Total inventories at $2,678.3 billion Inventory to sales ratio at 1.37 vs 1.40 prior Previously, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in October. The thinking around tariffs and the shifts in the trade balance is that it should ultimately be a drag on inventories,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil continues to consolidate between key technical levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran negotiations. Yesterday, Iran’s atomic energy chief said that Iran would be open to dilute its highly enriched uranium if the United States lifted all sanctions. The rangebound price action is clearly showing indecision in the market

Euro appreciation deserves attention but I do not see it as dramatic at all We do not target the exchange rate but we monitor it closely There was a brief uptick in EUR/USD exchange rate recently But we are now back to the range around 1.16 to 1.18, which is fully consistent with the assumptions

NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ) are currently rotating near the 25,330–25,350 area, a zone that has acted as the market’s balance point so far today. While price has moved both higher and lower intraday, neither buyers nor sellers have been able to force lasting acceptance outside this range. This makes 25,365 on the upside and 25,310

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a diverse landscape with notable performances in the technology, automotive, and entertainment sectors. Leading the way, the software & infrastructure segment within the technology sector is outperforming, with Microsoft (MSFT) climbing 1.06% and Oracle (ORCL) surging by 2.19%. Semiconductor companies also show resilience with Nvidia (NVDA) up 0.85%,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board yesterday despite the lack of catalysts. Most analysts blamed the report saying that China urged its banks to cut their exposure to US Treasuries. In such a case you would expect a negative reaction in bonds, but they finished the day higher. We did see

None of this lot is likely to move around markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior quarter was 0.8% Employment benefits 0.7% vs 0.8% prior quarter Employment wages 0.7% vs 0.8% prior quarter The easing in wage growth supports the rate cutting cycle. Powell has mentioned many times that he doesn’t see inflationary pressure coming from wage growth given the easing in labour market conditions. The ECI is now back

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The dollar eased broadly, but Goldman Sachs says Japan’s post-election fiscal outlook keeps USD/JPY upside risks alive, with volatility and intervention risk set to rise. Summary: The US dollar softened overall, but analysts see Japan’s election outcome reinforcing upside risks for USD/JPY via higher fiscal spending expectations. Goldman Sachs expects implied volatility in USD/JPY to

For a company to successfully go public, it may seem essential to have solid finances, but in reality, what matters most is that market conditions are not just favorable, but bullish. While this did not appear to be an issue at the start of the year, confidence has started to fade as concerns have grown

After the modest gains yesterday, we’re seeing precious metals cool off a little in trading so far today. After a setback late last week, there was a notable bounce from the lows especially in silver. The precious metal itself is up 27% from its Friday low near $64 but the bounce we’re seeing since remains

Oil prices are stuck in a consolidation as US-Iran negotiations keep the market on edge US January NFIB small business optimism index 99.3 vs 99.8 expected The Nasdaq is stuck in a range as traders await key US data releases this week NASDAQ Futures Technical Analysis Today: Key Price Levels That Will Decide Direction ECB

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq continues to erase the losses experienced last week as we approach the key US data releases. It’s going to be a big week as we get the US NFP report tomorrow and the US CPI on Friday. The main risk is that hot data triggers a hawkish repricing which could weigh

The US and India struck a sweeping trade deal covering $500bn of purchases, tariff cuts and digital trade, reshaping bilateral commercial ties. Summary: The White House said India will purchase more than $500bn of US goods across energy, technology, agriculture and coal. India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and a broad

Prior 99.5 Full report here The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by 6 points. The Uncertainty Index

Australian business activity cooled slightly in January, but easing cost pressures offered fresh encouragement on the inflation outlook. Earlier: Weak Australian consumer sentiment backs March RBA pause, Westpac still sees May hike Summary: Australian business confidence edged higher in January, while business conditions eased modestly from December. Sales and profits slowed slightly but remain around

Justin posted yesterday on: China calls on banks to reduce US Treasuries exposure amid “market volatility” – report I added a little more: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves China is letting the yuan rise at the same time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 0.4% Export prices M/M 0.3% vs 0.1% expected Prior 0.5% Import prices Y/Y 0.0% vs 0.1% prior Export prices Y/Y 3.1% vs 3.3% prior The US Import and Export Price Indexes are monthly reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that track the change in prices for goods and services traded

The Japan snap election result was expected, with Takaichi and the ruling LDP party picking up a landslide victory. Takaichi has more than solidified her mandate and power positioning, with a ‘supermajority’ also being achieved. That being said, the reaction in the Japanese yen currency hasn’t quite reflected that for now. The yen is sitting

S&P 500 futures are flat just ahead of the open. Here are some of the stocks on the move. The Big Movers (>5%) S&P Global (SPGI) -15.9%: The biggest mover on the board, and not in a good way. Weak profit and a disappointing full-year outlook are hammering the stock. Datadog (DDOG) +14%: A double-digit

Japan prime minister Takaichi solidified her standing in the snap election over the weekend, with her ruling LDP party claiming a landslide victory and securing a ‘supermajority’ mandate. That allows her to proceed with her fiscal expansion, spreading her dovish wings in pushing for a suspension of food sales tax for two years. The Takaichi

Prior was +0.6% Details: Ex-autos 0.0% vs +0.3% expected Prior ex autos +0.5% (revised to +0.4%) Ex autos and gas 0.0% vs +0.4% prior(revised to +0.3%) Control group -0.1%% vs +0.4% expected Prior control +0.4% Retail sales y/y % vs +3.33% prior USD/JPY was trading down 72 pips to 155.13 prior to this report and

Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet in the first week of April, according to Politico. The pair spoke last week and that may have helped to finalize the agenda for the meeting. They previously held a high-profile bilateral meeting on October 30, 2025, in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC (Asia-Pacific

Alphabet is set to test investor appetite with a rare 100-year bond, reviving a structure unseen in tech since the dot-com era. Summary: Alphabet is planning to issue a rare 100-year bond as part of a large multi-tranche debt sale. The century bond will be denominated in sterling, marking Alphabet’s debut in the UK bond

For some context, the BOJ board nominee here will be one to replace Asahi Noguchi – whose term will end on 31 March. Noguchi was a former economics professor at Senshu University and joined to BOJ board in April 2021. He has always been one of the more dovish members, advocating for a more “measured”

Singapore’s economy finished 2025 on a stronger footing than expected, prompting authorities to lift 2026 growth and export forecasts. Summary: Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4, beating official advance estimates on both annual and quarterly measures. Full-year 2025 growth was revised higher, confirming strong momentum into year-end. Authorities upgraded the 2026 GDP growth

Australian consumer confidence slumped again in February, strengthening the case for an RBA pause in March, though analysts still see a May rate hike if inflation stays sticky. Summary: Australian consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month in February, sinking deeper into pessimistic territory. Higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures are weighing heavily on

A report that China is nudging banks to trim US Treasury exposure added to “sell-America” nerves, but markets still assume any shift would be gradual, not a disorderly dump. Justin had the breaking on this here yesterday: China calls on banks to reduce US Treasuries exposure amid “market volatility” – report but I wanted to

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Japanese equities surged to record highs as strong earnings and post-election fiscal optimism fuelled a powerful rally in both the Nikkei and Topix. Info via Reuters reporting. Earlier: Japan election clears path for fiscal push, analysts see equity upside but debt risks Summary: Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix both hit record highs as earnings optimism

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda. The markets might just chop around amid lack of catalysts. There’s a lot of noise at the moment as we approach the US NFP report tomorrow, so be careful out there. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, the highlights will be the

Japan’s new government is pushing to fast-track its budget and tax agenda, with food tax cuts and funding options now under active discussion. Summary: Japan’s finance minister said the government aims to pass next year’s budget and tax reform as quickly as possible. Officials pledged to limit the impact of any budget delays on households.

BoE’s Mann warned US tariffs are lifting UK inflation, as China pushes higher export prices onto Britain rather than the United States. Summary: Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said US tariffs are feeding into higher UK inflation via Chinese export pricing. China has cut prices for exports to the US but raised prices to

The Trump administration is preparing a sweeping rollback of US climate regulation, upending emissions rules and reshaping the outlook for energy, autos and clean-tech markets. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Summary: The Trump administration plans to repeal the 2009 “endangerment finding,” the legal foundation for US greenhouse-gas regulation. The move would remove federal

Trump has posted a bit of a rant to his social media app. The main gist seems to be about a bridge. Anyway, USD/CAD is up a few tics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NY Fed January survey: One-year inflation expectations fall to 3.1% from 3.4% Trump and Xi will meet in the first week of April ECB’s Lagarde: We expect inflation to stabilize at our 2% medium term target ECB unlikely to react to a temporary dip below 2% inflation – Nagel Bank of France Governor Villeroy announces

The People’s Bank of China is still letting the CNY climb higher. Along with this news I think this is all very significant: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves As Trump fumbles the ball, China is picking it up and running hard with it. — The People’s Bank of

South Korea is moving to screen US investment projects ahead of parliamentary approval, signalling a more cautious approach amid trade tensions and tariff risks. Summary: South Korea plans to introduce a system to preliminarily review US investment projects before related legislation is passed. The move is aimed at managing risks and avoiding misunderstandings amid renewed

UK retail sales started 2026 on a strong footing, with January marking the fastest growth since August as food spending and in-store activity rebounded. Earlier: BoE’s Mann says US Trump tariffs are pushing Chinese export prices higher for UK Summary: UK retailers reported their strongest sales growth since August, pointing to a solid start to

US-India trade deal targets $500bn in purchases, slashes tariffs WSJ: Trump to scrap landmark climate finding in sweeping regulatory rollback China’s onshore yuan, CNY, hits its highest since 10 May 2023 Japan pushes fast budget passage as food tax cuts, funding debated Vitol lifts long-term oil demand outlook, sees peak delayed to mid-2030s Japan stocks

Vitol has pushed global oil demand higher and further into the future, citing slower EV uptake and resilient transport fuel use. Summary: Vitol has lifted its long-term oil demand outlook, with global consumption now seen peaking at around 112 million barrels per day. Peak demand is pushed back to the mid-2030s, driven mainly by slower

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9208 Earlier: ICYMI bombshell: China tells banks to curb US Treasury exposure, “sell-America” nerves PBOC inject 311.4bn yuan via 7-day RRs @1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The surprise exit of France’s central bank chief is unlikely to shift ECB policy, with analysts pointing to rare unity among euro zone rate setters. Summary: The early departure of Francois Villeroy de Galhau is not expected to alter the ECB’s current policy stance. Villeroy was a prominent policy dove, but analysts say the ECB

Analysts say Japan’s election outcome clears the path for fiscal stimulus under Takaichi, boosting growth and equities but reviving concerns over debt, yields and the yen. I was basically saying all this and more throughout Monday, but recapping some analysts takes yere. Analysts say a single-party Lower House majority strengthens Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ability

The US dollar is the G10 laggard today by a long shot. It’s a sharp move lower after some signs of life last week. What’s behind the dollar selling: 1) Jobs Last week we got five numbers that all pointed to a weakening of the US jobs picture: ADP employment ISM services employment component Initial

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau unexpectedly quit today, citing personal reasons. In a letter to central bank employees, he said he was offered a role to run a foundation for troubled youngsters and couldn’t refuse. “A bit more than a year before the conclusion of my second term, it seems to me

There are some chunky expiries that stand out on the day but none of which are likely to be of any impact. The full list can be seen below. There are some large ones for EUR/USD and AUD/USD in particular, holding at the 1.1900 and 0.6900 levels respectively. The former is the most likely to

One of the themes in markets right now is that the ‘old economy’ stocks are rising while the AI stocks are sliding. It’s something of a mean reversion trade but could also highlight some positive cyclical signs in things like manufacturing and transport. But here is an ‘old economy’ company that I didn’t not expect

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicated that the ECB will likely overlook a temporary dip in inflation below its 2% target, citing forecasts that suggest a medium-term recovery. Despite Eurozone inflation falling to 1.7% in January, the central bank remains steady on its 2% key rate. This stance is bolstered by resilient core inflation and wage

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar had a good run last week on some unwinding of overstretched US Dollar shorts and mostly stronger US data. The bullish momentum eventually faded as we got a very weak US Job Openings report that coupled with the selloff in the stock market weighed on the market pricing. The

We heard from Lagarde last week in the ECB press conference so we’re not breaking any new ground here. The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a cut this year at any point. We expect inflation to stabilize at our 2% medium term target Our data dependent approach serves us well in

Japan’s top officials have stepped up coordinated yen warnings, signalling rising intervention risk as authorities push back against rapid and one-sided FX moves. Summary Japan’s intervention rhetoric has intensified across senior officials Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara flagged concern over one-sided FX moves Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned over the weekend she may engage markets

Gold has broken above the earlier session range and is trading up 2% to $5058. Silver is up 5.7% to $82.46 and also at the best levels of the day. Risk appetite is picking up again in broader markets and the S&P 500 is up 31 points or 0.46%. That’s a nice turnaround after it

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) punched above their weight and the results were one-sided, with the opposition losing roughly half of their pre-election standing. The LDP claimed 316 seats with their coalition partner Nippon Ishin claiming 36 seats, far exceeding the two-thirds (310+) needed for a ‘supermajority’. It’s a landslide victory for Japan prime

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar had a good run last week on some unwinding of overstretched US Dollar shorts and mostly stronger US data. The bullish momentum eventually faded as we got a very weak US Job Openings report that coupled with the selloff in the stock market weighed on the market pricing. The

The kiwi stabilised after early losses, but softer NZ data and Australia’s hawkish shift leave NZD consolidating rather than trending higher. Summary: NZD eased last week as softer labour data pushed out expectations for RBNZ tightening Risk-off tone supported the USD, keeping the kiwi under pressure early NZD/USD stabilised above 0.60 as equities rebounded into

The US dollar is under broad pressure to start the week. Last week saw a series of misses on US jobs data including: ADP ISM services Challenger job cuts Initial jobless claims This week includes an unusual Wednesday non-farm payrolls release and the market looks to be fleeing US dollars ahead of it. The consensus

1 year inflation at 3.1% vs 3.4% in December 3-year inflation unchanged at 3% 5-year inflation unchanged at 3% Expectations for credit availability declined Labor market views mostly improved Home price inflation 2.9% vs 3.0% prior Households less hopeful on current and future financial situation No big surprises here and there was no market reaction.

A group of companies that operated under the Octa brand announced it is opting out of the brand-sharing agreement. Bringing its participation in Octa to a close, it will emerge as Elev8, an independent international brokerage brand, effective 9 February 2026. The changes will affect only the brand identity, while the operational processes remain unchanged.

Over the weekend: China gold reserves climb further, buying continues for a 15th straight month This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Europe must prepare for greater financial safe haven role Risks to growth and inflation are balanced Inflation expectations are fully anchored, and FX movements already factored in Policy stance is appropriate A change in environment is needed to change our policy stance There are no surprises in his remarks, mainly just reaffirming what we know

Headlines: Japan in the spotlight to start the new week Japan PM Takaichi says won’t resort to debt issuance to fund food sales tax suspension US futures dip lower as tech shares wobble again It’s a pivotal week for the US Dollar as traders turn their focus to the US NFP report Is the worst

Sector Overview Today’s stock market landscape reveals a mixture of performance across various sectors, with particular focus on the tech and semiconductor sectors. Analyzing the heatmap, we notice a divergence in performance across these industries as well as significant moves in healthcare. 📉 Technology Sector Oracle (ORCL) emerged as a standout performer with a gain

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than the Swiss Consumer Confidence data which is not going to change anything for the SNB and the market reaction will therefore be muted. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we will just have a few central bank speakers. It’s very

Jimmy Lai’s 20-year sentence risks becoming a new diplomatic flashpoint, sharpening tensions between China and Western governments ahead of key US–China talks. Summary: Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years in prison in Hong Kong Case risks becoming a flashpoint in US–China relations ahead of expected Trump–Xi talks Donald Trump has publicly pressed Xi Jinping to

Will examine the schedule and funding of plan to suspend sales tax on food by two years Will not resort to debt issuance to fund suspension of sales tax on food To seek the such measures at the earliest date possible by securing non-tax revenues, reviews to subsidies Must pull Japan out of excessively tight

A group of companies that operated under the Octa brand announced it is opting out of the brand-sharing agreement. Bringing its participation in Octa to a close, it will emerge as Elev8, an independent international brokerage brand, effective 9 February 2026. The changes will affect only the brand identity, while the operational processes remain unchanged.

The stakes don’t get any higher than this, at least in terms of US economic data releases. In the days ahead, we will be getting the US retail sales, labour market report, and the consumer price inflation report; all within a span of 72 hours. Typically, you’d see all three reports get spread out across

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been in consolidation mode ever since the big crash as the lack of key catalysts kept traders on edge. Much like for gold, the fundamentals are still against rising prices due to improving US data and easing geopolitical tensions. Silver has a high correlation with gold but it’s more volatile being

Prior -1.8 That marks a third straight month of improving sentiment in the euro area, with some good news in the opening two months of 2026 at least. This is the first positive reading since July last year, reaffirming some added optimism as we get into the new year. Of note, the expectations index also

The rebound on Friday was headlined by the Dow crossing the 50,000 mark but tech also managed to bounce back a little at the end of last week. But today, the jitters are creeping back in as we see Nasdaq futures lead the declines now in a notable drop in the past hour. S&P 500

After holding rates last week and stressing caution at his press conference, Bailey’s Sunday AlUla speech reinforced a data-dependent stance, with AI a long-run theme but inflation confidence still the near-term hurdle. Earlier re GBP: UK PM Starmer resignation rumours put Monday in focus as Mandelson scandal deepens Summary: Last week: the Bank of England

BoK governor contender Lee says it’s too early to talk tightening, urging tougher housing taxes while calling USD/KRW’s current range broadly appropriate. Summary: Former Bank of Korea board member Lee Seung-heon, a leading governor contender, says it’s too early to signal policy tightening He argues Korea should lean more on tougher property ownership taxes to

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar had a good run last week on some unwinding of overstretched US Dollar shorts and mostly stronger US data. The bullish momentum eventually faded as we got a very weak US Job Openings report that coupled with the selloff in the stock market weighed on the market pricing. The

Japan’s finance ministry escalated yen warnings over the weekend and into Monday, signalling readiness to intervene as officials stress coordination with the US and vigilance against disorderly FX moves. Summary: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned over the weekend she may engage markets to stabilise the yen Katayama confirmed close coordination with US Treasury Secretary Scott

The yen dropped early: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure But intervention comments from the finance minister, and then her deputy, has seen it rocket higher (USD/JPY lower): Japan steps up yen intervention warnings as officials

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9354 OMOs: PBOC inject 113bn yuan via 7-day RRs @1.4% Earlier: China gold reserves climb further, buying continues for a 15th straight month This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A verbal yen intervention warning issued. The finance minister did give a heads up to the likelihood of this over the weekend: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The report notes that Beijing officials have advised financial institutions to pare down their holdings of US Treasuries, citing worries about “concentration risks” and “market volatility”. The Chinese regulators are said to urge banks to limit purchases of US government bonds while also commanding those with high exposure to cut down on their positions. Naturally,

China’s RWA tokenisation framework is sparking a compliance-driven rush into select names, while keeping onshore token activity banned and offshore issuance tightly vetted. China’s new stance on real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation lifted related stocks in China and Hong Kong on Monday Onshore RWA token business remains not allowed, but regulators will vet offshore issuance backed

Amid all the volatility in markets, precious metals continue to be among those being closely watched still. Both gold and silver are showing lively signs of a better recovery to start the new week, trading higher so far today. But after a setback last week, it’s best to be reminded that we’re still caught in

Bitcoin rebound analysis today – what traders and investors should focus on after a 21% surge Have a good week, crypto traders and investors. I know many of you are wondering if the rebound we started seeing on ate Thursday and Friday is the real thing or not. I will start with my video before

BoK governor contender Lee says too early for tightening, backs higher property taxes China’s RWA tokenisation rules lift related stocks as compliance race begins Jimmy Lai 20 year prison sentence raises new tensions between China and the West Japan escalates yen warnings as Kihara joins Katayama and Mimura. Supportive for JPY. Yen has surged after

The big news is this: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure UK PM Starmer resignation rumours put Monday in focus as Mandelson scandal deepens Calendar … m’eh: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian household spending eased in December after strong sales-driven gains, but solid quarterly volumes underline why the RBA has turned hawkish on inflation. Summary: Australian household spending fell 0.4% m/m in December, after strong gains in October–November Annual spending growth slowed to 5.0%, from 6.3% previously Quarterly sales volumes rose 0.9%, adding an estimated 0.3ppt

Bloomberg have a piece up that is getting some attention. Warsh Call for Fed-Treasury Accord Stirs Debate in $30 Trillion Bond Market (gated) I’ve summarised. — Warsh’s push to rethink the Fed–Treasury relationship has reignited fears that closer coordination could undermine monetary independence and reshape US bond markets. Summary: Kevin Warsh has floated the idea

Oil lower. The big news of course is from Japan: Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure USD/JPY update, a pullback from the thin market opening highs and testing towards them now: This article was written by

Japan’s December wage data showed improving nominal pay but another fall in real wages, keeping pressure on the BoJ to move cautiously after its December hike. Summary: Japan’s real wages fell 0.1% y/y in December, extending a year-long contraction Nominal pay growth improved, but still lagged inflation enough to keep purchasing power negative Overtime pay

Updating major FX. Its still early, just 0630 in Japan and 0530 in Hong Kong and Singapore. Pretty much just New Zealand and Australia active right now. Be wary of low liquidity thin trade until markets thicken up in the hours ahead. Takaichi’s super-majority win clears the way for fiscal expansion, lifting stocks but renewing

Unconfirmed resignation talk has put Monday in focus, with Starmer’s response to the Mandelson fallout now the key driver for near-term GBP and gilt risk. Summary: Resignation talk is unconfirmed; markets watch for a potential Monday statement Pressure on PM Keir Starmer has intensified over the Mandelson–Epstein fallout and party anger Starmer is expected to

Takaichi’s landslide election win revives reflation trades, lifting stocks but renewing pressure on the yen as officials warn intervention remains firmly on the table. Yen is weaker in very early trade: As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are

Sun: Japanese Average Cash Earnings, Japanese Snap Election Mon: Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan), Mexican Inflation (Jan), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), Australian Household Spending (Dec) Tue: EIA STEO; Norwegian prelim. CPI (Jan), US NFIB (Jan), Weekly ADP, ECI (Q4), Export/Import Prices (Dec) Wed: BoC Minutes (Jan), OPEC MOMR; ECB Wage Tracker (post-meeting); Chinese Inflation (Jan),

We are through the biggest market cap names on earnings and it was dramatic, with 10% moves in some of the world’s biggest companies. Next week switches the focus back to some smaller companies but many with good insight on the real economy, which is tough to pin down right now. Monday The week starts

China gold reserves at the end of January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces In December 2025: 74.15 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of January 2026: $369.58 billion In December 2025: $319.45 billion Amid the surging run higher in prices to start the year, the value of China’s gold reserves have

UMich February consumer sentiment 57.3 vs 55.0 expected Canada January employment report -24.8K vs +7.0K expected Jensen Huang: This is a once-in-a-generation infrastructure build out Fed’s Jefferson says jobs market is stabilizing and inflation should moderate Fed’s Daly: Must watch both sides of mandate, situation feels precarious Fed’s Daly says she leans towards more cuts

Leans towards more cuts in 2026, hard to say if it’s one or two Says she keeps an open mind on rates To cut, you’d need to be more confident on inflation or see labor market as more challenged that currently Workers feel they are on the knife’s edge If job market goes from ‘no

Two weeks ago the world was abuzz with precious metals bullish talk. Gold had rallied that week to $4982 from $4629 in the third straight week of gains. It was a near-euphoric time for the gold bulls, nearly hitting the once-dreamlike level of $5000. If you were to ask the bulls then, if they would

There’s a moment in every drawdown, every flash crash, every this time is different panic where something shifts inside you. It’s not just fear — it’s the desperate need for someone, anyone, to tell you what’s going to happen next. Every trader wants certainty in a world that just reminded you it offers none. I’ve

RBI holds rates at 5.25% as inflation stays low and growth outlook remains steady Reserve Bank of India unchanged, as widely expected Reserve Bank India monetary policy decision due 10am local (0430 GMT/2330 US Eastern time) Recap: BoJ policymaker flags need for further hikes as inflation nears target India eyes up to $80bn in Boeing

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is on CNBC: The hyperscalers are so constrained by chips All of these companies cash flows are going to start rising We are addressing the largest opportunity in history Nobody uses AI better than META and they see a much large future potential for it Every company is seeing the same

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off 2026 by raising the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent at its first Board meeting of the year on Tuesday 3 February, marking the first rate increase in over two years. The decision reversed part of the easing cycle seen during 2025

Comments from a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry: US-Iran talks are over “for now” A reporter from State TV says unsure when talks might restart Keep an eye out for Iran headlines. Oil is current nearly flat, down 13 cents to $63.16. I’d estimate there’s at least at $3 gepolitical premium in oil at the

The Fed’s Jefferson is cautiously optimistic about the economy but isn’t tipping anything in terms of rate cuts or hikes. U.S. central bank’s current monetary policy ‘well positioned’ to deal with what likely lies ahead. Future moves to be driven by data and views on outlook. Stance allows ‘leeway’ for supply side of economy to

You can always count on the big, round numbers. We’ve seen it before in bitcoin where it’s all about the numbers with lots of zeros behind them. That was the case again today as bitcoin reached a low of $60,017 before embarking on an impressive rebound to $69,000, or 15%. The round numbers seem to

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low tier releases that won’t change anything for the market or the central banks. Expect to hear a lot of ECB speakers throughout the session as it’s usually the case after an ECB policy meeting. They are unlikely

Prior was 56.4 Conditions 58.3 vs 54.9 expected Expectations 56.6 vs 56.7 expected Inflation numbers 1-year inflation 3.5% vs 4.0% prior 5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.3% prior I don’t know if this survey tells us anything about consumer spending anymore. It’s got a long tradition but everything’s been so deeply politicized that people just

Gold and silver heavy again in Asia morning trade. Earlier … not bullish: More on CME raises margins on COMEX gold and silver futures after extreme volatility Hang on,. I gotta get this …. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Low-hiring, low firing environment may persist or may quickly change to a no-hiring, more-firing labor market Businesses are cautiously optimistic, workers are not so sure. The signal here — I think — is that the Fed could pivot quickly. The comments are from a short LinkedIn post. Here’s the full text: Is the economic outlook

Renewed attention on US advice to leave Iran reflects old guidance, but it reinforces lingering geopolitical risks rather than signalling a new escalation. Summary: Renewed social-media attention on US advice to “leave Iran now” reflects recycled guidance from mid-January, not new escalation. The warning stems from widespread anti-government protests, crackdowns and detention risks, not a

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We’ve had a rough three-day losing streak for the Nasdaq and other major stock market indices. It’s not clear what was the catalyst although it coincided with the release of Anthropic’s new AI tool called Claude Plugins. It basically demonstrated that a large portion of software could be obsolete and weighed on tech

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.5% House price index +1.0% y/y Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.4% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan’s megabanks see higher yields restoring the appeal of JGBs, even as near-term losses and policy risks argue for a cautious rebuild. In brief, via Reuters report. Summary: Japan’s biggest banks say they are ready to rebuild JGB holdings as higher yields improve returns, despite rising unrealised losses. MUFG and SMFG see long-term yields stabilising,

It’s been a day of mixed fortunes for US futures so far today. Tech shares were battered in Wall Street yesterday and that continued after Amazon faced a backlash on their earnings reporting. Big tech continues to try and justify their increased AI infrastructure spending but investors are slowly but surely moving on to the

There was no government shutdown to delay the Canadian employment data so it gets the Friday morning spotlight all to itself. Prior was +8.2K Employment change: -24.8K vs -5.0K estimate, +8.2K prior Unemployment rate: 6.5% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.8% prior Full-time employment change: +44.9K vs +50.2 last month Part-time employment change: -69.7K vs -42.0K last

The mood in markets is improving prior to the US open with S&P 500 futures up 0.5%. That’s a turnaround from earlier losses and may reflect a re-evaluation on the disruption to software and AI capex. Here are some pre-market movers: AMZN (-8.9%): Amazon shares tumbled after the company missed profit expectations and alarmed investors

Have a look at the IGV ETF, which has become the poster child for the latest market selloff. It’s down 4.9% today and 32% since October. The thinking is clear: AI agents are going to rule the internet. You won’t go to websites anymore, you’ll ask AI to do things and everything will happen in

As we track today’s market movements from investinglive.com, it’s clear the tech sector is experiencing a remarkable day led by notable gains in the semiconductor industry, contrasting with a notable dip in Amazon’s performance. Let’s dive into the dynamics driving these shifts. 🌟 Sector Overview The technology sector stands out, particularly the semiconductor industry, showcasing

Bullock framed the rate hike as a response to renewed, broad-based inflation and tighter capacity constraints, with the RBA now focused on whether price pressures prove persistent. Summary: Bullock said the board lifted the cash rate because the economy is more capacity constrained than previously judged, meaning policy needed to be tighter. She said the

There’s a risk that we draw too much comfort from dip in inflation in April Inflation falling to target earlier is good news Policy must address any remaining persistence Private sector growth is subdued but positive The labor market has eased quite significantly We should not overinterpret changes to growth outlook in February BoE forecasts

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is now consolidating between major technical levels as traders await new catalysts before picking a direction. The fundamentals are still against rising prices, so we either get stuck in a wide range below the January’s high or will see another flush lower in the next weeks or months. Next week is going

With the absence of the US jobs report today, it is leaving markets to fend for themselves in closing out the week. And so far, the more nervous and jittery mood all around is still permeating as we look to the session ahead. In particular, risk trades are being shaken up hard amid a combination

RBI leaves repo rate at 5.25%, and SDF (standing facility rate) rate, which is the floor of the monetary policy corridor, at 5.00% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan markets are watching whether Takaichi’s likely election win delivers political stability without reigniting fiscal fears that pressure the yen and JGBs. Summary: Japan heads into a national election with polls pointing to a strong mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, potentially reshaping the policy and market backdrop. A decisive win could stabilise politics, but

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 58 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 45 bps (49% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 6 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 5 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by

Earlier today, we had Germany and France release their latest trade figures for December and in summary the whole of 2025. There were quite a few things to note but a couple of standout points were: China once again overtaking the US as being Germany’s top trade partner German exports to the US declined by

Headlines: US equities look to recover a little after a rough few days How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Oil prices in the spotlight as focus remains on US-Iran negotiations in Oman ECB policymakers repeat policy is in “good place”; ease tone on euro’s strength BOJ policymaker Masu says not thinking

A potential $70–80bn Boeing order pipeline would be a headline boost for US aerospace, but markets still need detail on timing, funding and how much of the wider US–India trade package is binding. Summary: India is ready to place up to US$80bn of Boeing aircraft orders as part of a broader push to expand US–India

As it’s usually the case after an ECB policy meeting, policymakers are out in full force sharing their views about monetary policy and the economy. As a reminder, the ECB yesterday held interest rates steady as widely expected and kept everything unchanged. It was a non-event basically. The focus was mainly on President Lagarde and

There is just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. Similar to the day before, this isn’t one that ties too closely to any technical significance. However, we are seeing price action weave in and around the figure

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices are consolidating between key levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran negotiations. On Wednesday, prices surged after reports suggested that US-Iran talks scheduled for today were called off. The gains were eventually erased after Iran’s foreign minister said the talks were still on. Given the low probabilities of a

JOLTS job openings 6.542m vs 7.200m expected US weekly initial jobless claims 231K vs 212K expected US January Challenger layoffs 108.435k vs 35.553k prior ECB leaves deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% as widely expected in February decision ECB’s Lagarde: Stronger euro adds to external challenges Anthropic releases Opus 4.6, highlights financial analyses ability, software stocks

Summary: The RBI is expected to hold rates steady at its 10:00 a.m. IST decision, with inflation pressures contained and tariff risks easing. Recent budget measures to support manufacturing and exports, alongside a trade deal with the US, have improved the policy backdrop. Attention is shifting from rates to liquidity conditions, with banks pushing for

Modern traders face rising costs and tighter capital demands, so many now turn to performance-based funding. These evaluation models reward discipline, reduce personal risk and offer a clearer path for anyone aiming to trade at a professional level. Traders have seen the limits of relying on personal savings or bank loans, especially when markets move

The RBI held rates and its neutral stance as expected, signalling confidence in domestic growth while flagging rising external headwinds. The Reserve Bank of India held policy steady as expected, with the MPC unanimously keeping the repo rate at 5.25%. SDF (standing facility rate) rate, which is the floor of the monetary policy corridor, unchanged

For some context, the French trade deficit is still on recovery mode after having hit its highest point in 2022 amid the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict. That drove up import prices for energy by almost double compared to 2021, resulting in a trade deficit of €161.7. As such, the narrowing to a deficit of €69.2 billion

Prior +0.8% At the same time, we’re getting German trade figures released as per the following: December trade balance €17.1 billion vs €14.1 billion expected Prior €13.1 billion Exports +4.0% m/m Prior -2.5% Imports +1.4% m/m Prior +0.8% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan Household Spending -2.9% m/m (expected -1.9%, prior +6.2%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kazaks is one to say that a “big and rapid” strengthening in the euro could warrant a policy response by the ECB. And that is something that will stand out among the recent remarks, which includes ECB president Lagarde’s one yesterday. In her press conference, Lagarde mentioned that “a stronger euro could bring inflation down

Masu’s comments reinforce a more hawkish tilt at the BoJ, keeping April hike expectations alive as yen weakness sharpens inflation risks. Summary: BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu called for timely rate hikes to prevent underlying inflation from overshooting the 2% target. Masu said underlying inflation is still below target but “drawing very close”, with deflationary

Russian crude discounts to China have hit record levels as sellers chase demand amid uncertainty over India’s future imports. Summary: Discounts on Russian crude exports to China have widened to record levels as sellers cut prices to retain demand amid the risk of losing Indian buyers. The move follows a US–India trade agreement that includes

CME raises initial margin on its Comex 100 Gold futures to 9% from 8% CME raises initial margin on its Comex 5000 silver futures to 18% from 15% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOJ is not behind the curve in dealing with inflation It is obvious that we should not raise rates too quickly in a way that derails the economic recovery I’m not saying that food prices are rising in a way that warrants immediate policy action Not thinking of a particular pace in raising rates Don’t

At a glance: Amazon Q4 2026 results were mixed but solid, with a slight EPS miss offset by a clear top-line beat. EPS came in at $1.95 vs $1.96 expected, while net sales rose to $213.39bn, ahead of the $211.49bn consensus. Operating income ($24.98bn) and margin (11.7%) were effectively in line with expectations, signalling continued

BTC up around 4% while ETH up just a little more that that. Crypto has seen epic selling. BTC was circa 125K in October 2025. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I think the important thing to remember about the White House is that the Secretary of State is Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a Floridian. There is absolutely no love for Communist Cuba in Florida or the diaspora. In all likelihood, the Venezuelan regime was likely allowed to hold onto power in

CME’s margin hike is the latest sign volatility is still driving the metals tape, lifting the cost of leverage just as positioning is being forced lighter. Summary: CME has lifted initial margin requirements again for key precious metals contracts, raising the cash required to hold positions. COMEX 100 gold futures initial margin is set to

Analysts say gold’s pullback has not shaken its structural support, with central bank demand and macro fundamentals still underpinning the medium-term outlook. The note this is all from (in summary) is from earlier this week. Gold has since dropped more but the points made are still well worth reading. Summary: Analysts argue the latest pullback

Japan’s weak December household spending underscores inflation’s bite on consumers but is unlikely to derail expectations for BOJ tightening later this year. Summary: Japan’s December household spending fell sharply, badly undershooting expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year. The data suggest inflation pressure is biting into real household incomes, weighing on consumption late in 2025. Analysts see

Anthropic is on a roll this month. Their plug-ins look like a major disruption to software stocks and now they’re out with an update as Opus 4.5 gets updated to 4.6. The first thing they highlighted was its ability to do financial analysis. “Opus 4.6 can also apply its improved abilities to a range of

Everyone who has been in markets long enough has held an asset that looks like this. It’s not fun. Maybe you’re an autistic, unfeeling robot but if you’re not, it’s brutal. Losing money in financial markets is a sure way to make you feel like an idiot. As the losses mount, you lose sleep and

Sector Overview The stock market is displaying a vivid patchwork of reds and greens today, signaling mixed performances across various sectors. Technology, notably, is experiencing substantial fluctuations. Big names like Google (GOOG) have taken a hit, decreasing by a significant 7.24%. Similarly, Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) have suffered declines of 4.39% and 2.20% respectively,

Growth driven by services, notably in IT and communications Manufacturing is resilient Food inflation increased Construction momentum picking up Government spending should strengthen demand Indications of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months and remain consistent with costs Forward looking indicators and surveys point to a continued moderation in labor costs Most measures of

China’s central bank leaned on longer-dated liquidity tools to smooth funding conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Summary: PBoC injected liquidity via both 7-day and 14-day reverse repos Use of 14-day RRs is unusual (not too unusual though!) and notable Move likely linked to upcoming Lunar New Year holiday cash demand Signals focus

Headlines: Precious metals hold losses after the plunge in Asia trading earlier BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in February meeting decision BOE governor Bailey says there should be scope for some further easing of policy USDJPY continues to surge towards the intervention level; Japanese officials look hopeless Bitcoin teeters towards $70,000 mark as

We last heard from Macklem in the BOC decision last Wednesday. Here are his latest comments: Restructuring of the Canadian economy and pick-up in productivity will take years Transition to new economy could be more painful than we’d like Canada needs to lean into structural change to avoid worst-case scenario It is hard to differentiate

Deposit rate left at 2.00% Main refinancing rate left at 2.15% Marginal lending facility left at 2.40% Rate decision statement here The market was pricing 99% probability of no change, so there’s nothing surprising here. There is just 6 bps of easing priced in by year-end, so the ECB is expected to remain on hold

The headline here is from a Scotia report on Google’s earnings. “If Google’s stock can’t rally on this print, it’s tough to see any other names working in this tape.” GOOG stock is down 2.7% at the moment, albeit that’s a nice improvement from the 5% decline earlier. There is some improvement elsewhere but I’m

Bitcoin is at the worst levels in 15 months as it breaks below $67K for the first time since October 2024. It’s part of a swan dive since $90K on January 28. That’s a harsh fall in a very short period of time. Since October 6 when Bitcoin hit $126K, it’s down 48% in the

The precious metal has plunged by over 12% on the day and well off the highs from the bounce in the past two days of around $92. The drop now sees silver drop back to around $76 and the technicals highlight the move rather well. After the sharp pullback from last week, it was always

Prior +5.6%; revised to +5.7% That’s a huge beat on estimates as German manufacturing orders surged once again in December, after a big jump in November last year as well. A lot of that is to do with a massive increase in large orders though. If you strip that out of the report, new orders

That will at least keep things interesting on the economic calendar in the session ahead. The BOE decision will be up first at 1200 GMT with a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% expected. That will be followed up by BOE governor Bailey’s press conference at 1230 GMT. The

Prior was 7.146 million (revised to 6.928m) Hires 5,293K vs 5,144K prior Separations 5,251K vs 5,144K prior Quits 3,248K vs 3,193K prior Layoffs and discharges 1,775K vs 1,701K prior This is a terrible reading along with a bad revision. Couple it with ISM employment, ADP, initial jobless claims and Challenger layoffs and it’s a consistently

Everyone loves the AI productivity narrative, but Goldman Sachs is asking the tough question: when does this become a labor market problem? According to a note from strategist Lee Coppersmith, the transition from a productivity story to a labor story is now underway. While the headline jobs numbers have held up so far, the underlying

Sydney, Australia, 5 February 2026 —Amid heightened volatility in global precious metals markets ,VT Markets has proven the strength of its trading infrastructure, maintaining stable execution and uninterrupted access during periods of intense market stress. During the recent market volatility, VT Markets recorded USD1.5 trillion in gold trading volume in January, underscoring strong client engagement

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold interest rates steady today with the policy rate to remain at 2.00%. The central bank is seen maintaining the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in the statement. We won’t get macroeconomic projections at this meeting, so the focus will be on the press conference and Lagarde’s comments

I think the moves were just the new volatility in fearful, thin markets. But, if you want some news, this earlier: China’s gold consumption in 2025 fell 3.57% to 950.096 metric tons, the state-backed gold association said on Thursday. Gold output using domestic raw materials climbed 1.09% year on year to 381.339 metric tons, the

The meeting decision today is likely to be a non-event. And if so, the ECB will have done their job well. The central bank won’t be making any changes to key interest rates and the statement language should be left untouched as well. As such, that leaves just ECB president Lagarde’s press conference as the

Prior 40.1 That’s a modest uptick in UK construction activity, with this being the slowest reduction in seven months. All three sub-sectors recorded weaker rates of contraction than those seen in December, helped by a more stable demand environment and reports of a gradual turnaround in sales pipelines. House building (39.3) was the weakest-performing segment

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. The pair continues to weave in and out of the figure level, so the expiries will provide some interest to keep price action close by once again. That being said, the

Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China remain in limbo as Washington weighs national security safeguards against the risk of pushing buyers toward foreign rivals. Summary: Nvidia’s proposed AI chip sales to China face fresh licensing conditions ByteDance deal hinges on US national security safeguards Nvidia pushing back on commercially impractical KYC requirements Trump administration broadly

The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to hold the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split (Dhingra and Taylor to dissent in favour of a 25 bps cut). The guidance is expected to remain mostly unchanged and the focus will be mainly on individual members’ views and the agents’ pay

Prior was 209K Four week moving average 212K vs 206.2K prior Continuing claims 1844K vs 1847K expected This report wasn’t delayed by the US government shutdown but the JOLTS report was. It was initially scheduled for Tuesday but has been rescheduled for 10 am ET today. Non-farm payrolls was pushed back until next Wednesday, Feb

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will be speaking in Miami on her economic and policy outlook. Cook has tended to align with the Fed’s consensus, data-dependent approach rather than staking out an overtly hawkish or dovish position. On rate decisions, she has usually voted with the centre of the Committee. Cook has been firm

Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 5-4 vs 7-2 expected Breeden, Dhingra, Ramsden, Taylor voted for a 25 bps rate cut “All is going well, there should be scope for some further reduction in the bank rate this year” But this does not mean that there is expectation to cut the bank rate at any particular

The main message today is one of good news Disinflation is on track and ahead of schedule compared to what we expected in November Not currently facing a situation in which monetary policy is being hit by big new shocks The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced Upside risk to inflation has

Oil prices swung sharply as Iran and the US played diplomatic phone tag, with reports of cancelled talks driving gains before confirmation of Friday talks in Oman sent crude back down. Posting this a catch up! Summary: Oil prices whipsawed on conflicting signals around Iran–US talks Crude jumped on reports Friday talks were off, then

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continues to rebound after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data and strong PMIs potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will have to pare back

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continues to rebound against the major currencies after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data and strong PMIs potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will

US-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January 2026, and that is up ~118% compared to the same month last year. Similar to how 2025 reflected a trend of softening labour market conditions and increasing layoffs, expect more of the same in 2026. That especially with the tech sector also likely to come under pressure

The rollercoaster ride continues as the volatile selling is not quite over yet. Precious metals looked on course for a modest recovery in the past few sessions before being dealt a slight setback in US trading the day before. Gold failed to hold a firm break above $5,000 while silver dipped back under $90 to

It’s rough out there for cryptocurrencies as the drop this week is made to look worse on the charts. Bitcoin already broke below its 100-week moving average last week, the first time that has happened since 2023. And adding insult to injury yesterday is when the selloff also took out key support from the March

The German construction PMI records 44.7 in January, significantly lower from the 50.3 print in December last year. The fall marks a solid drop in activity, which follows the first growth in almost four years in the month before. As such, that’s a major setback to the hopeful showing in December. A further decrease in

11.5x More Interest in ‘Why Is Bitcoin Crashing?’ Search interest around ‘why is Bitcoin crashing’ has surged by 11.5x in just a week, again as crypto market continues to slide and those that have tried to buy the dip, get stopped out again, or worse – liquadated. Why is bitcoin crashing then? While headlines often

Fed Governor Cook signalled a clear bias against near-term rate cuts, saying inflation risks remain skewed to the upside despite a stabilised labour market. Summary: Fed Governor Cook says inflation risks remain skewed to the upside Signals no support for near-term rate cuts without clearer disinflation Labour market seen as stable and broadly balanced Tariff-driven

Anthropic is out with a quartet of ads that they’re planning to air for the Superbowl and they’re devastating. The four themes are: deception, violation, trechery and betrayal but they all speak to the same thing: OpenAI launching ads. Or maybe not just OpenAI but other LLMs as well. There’s no doubt the world’s biggest

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Retail sales +1.3% vs +1.6% y/y expected Prior +2.3%; revised to +2.4% That’s a slightly more disappointing end to the year for euro area retail sales activity. But overall in 2025, the annual average level of retail trade volume is seen increasing by 2.3% compared with 2024. As for the

Fed Governor Cook Q&A now, signalled patience is warranted, saying policy is mildly restrictive and inflation progress remains insufficient to justify any near-term move. Earlier from Cook, from prepared remarks: Fed’s Cook warns inflation risks remain tilted higher Summary: Cook reinforces “wait and see” stance amid inflation uncertainty Says policy is mildly restrictive and appropriate

Standard Chartered trimmed its 2026 Solana target but kept a bullish long-term view, arguing the network is shifting from memecoin speculation toward stablecoin-driven micropayments. The BTC plunge may mess with this forecasts: Bitcoin wipes out all the gains from the Trump election win, falls below $75,000 It’s the worst day of the year in the

Bloomberg says China’s “national team” is increasingly used to manage equity volatility as Beijing leans on stocks to support confidence, fund tech and offset property weakness. Bloomberg outlined how China’s “national team” is used to smooth equity swings Beijing wants a steadier “slow bull” to support confidence and fund tech The state can lean on

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the BoE and ECB rate decisions. The Bank of England is expected to hold the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote split (although there’s also a strong consensus for a 7-2 split). The guidance in the statement will likely remain unchanged

Earlier: China targets unified domestic market to boost consumption and services demand The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9450 Injects 118.5bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% and also 300 bn yuan via 14day (Lunar New Year holidays begin February 15) This article

January US ISM services index 53.8 vs 53.5 expected January US ADP employment +22K vs +48K expected Plans for US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman on Friday are back on US reschedules non-farm payrolls for Wednesday Trump glows about his relationship with China and Xi EIA weekly crude oil inventories -3455K vs +489K expected Markets: Gold

The meeting decision today is widely expected to be an uneventful one. So if the ECB plays their cards right, that is precisely what is going to happen. And that can be viewed as a successful outcome in terms of managing market expectations and any reactions for today. The bottom line is that the central

Oil prices are falling after Iran’s foreign minister said talks will take place in Oman. That was followed by confirmation from Axios, which said that talks were put back on “after several Arab and Muslim leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away,” A US

Sterling is firmer into Thursday’s BoE decision as stronger UK data nudges markets to delay rate-cut bets, with the vote split and guidance the key tells. Summary: Sterling firmed to a five-month high vs the euro as markets lean toward a BoE hold BoE is widely expected to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% Stronger

Crypto ICYMI – Standard Chartered cuts Solana 2026 target but keeps bullish long view Why Is Bitcoin Crashing? Technical Analysis Shows Sellers Still in Control Precious metals slammed, silver plummeted. Was it this news out of China? Silver takes a nosedive as dip buyers are dealt a setback India shares seen higher on trade deal

I’m not sure why the calendar is not updating, I’ve popped in the numbers: Trade data is not too much of a focus right now. Imports lower is not a positive sign for the economy. Exports up is! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac’s Ellis says a second RBA rate hike in March is possible if data momentum builds, though May remains the central case. Summary: Westpac’s Ellis says a second RBA hike as early as March cannot be ruled out May remains the central case, but data momentum is key RBA seen unhappy with current inflation trajectory

Indian shares are poised for a firmer open on trade deal optimism, though IT sector weakness and earnings risk may temper gains. Summary: Indian equities seen opening modestly higher on trade deal optimism Recent US–India agreement lifts hopes of renewed foreign inflows IT stocks remain a key downside risk after global tech sell-off RBI decision

Japan’s 30-year bond yields eased ahead of an auction, but fiscal uncertainty linked to Sunday’s snap election continues to cap any sustained rally. Summary: Japan’s 30-year JGB yield edged lower ahead of Thursday’s auction Super-long bonds remain sensitive to fiscal election risk Snap election keeps focus on potential tax cuts and stimulus Elevated yields may

The ECB is set to stay firmly on hold this week, with Deutsche Bank expecting domestic resilience to keep policy unchanged through 2026. Summary: ECB widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday Policymakers seen comfortable with policy “in a good place” Euro strength not yet a trigger for action, despite inflation undershoot Deutsche Bank

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

China is pushing domestic market integration to lift consumption and support a shift toward higher-quality growth. Summary: China is pushing to build a unified domestic market to lift consumption Services consumption is a key focus of the strategy Authorities aim to dismantle local protectionism and internal barriers Openness and regional cooperation remain central policy pillars

Barclays warns the US dollar faces growing downside risks as markets price a rising risk premium despite US economic strength. Summary: Barclays sees a rising risk premium weighing on the US dollar Dollar weakness persists despite US economic outperformance Yen seen as having more scope to strengthen than the euro Asian currencies may benefit from

Alphabet beat revenue expectations on Search, Ads and Cloud strength, but massive capex plans for 2026 overshadowed a modest operating income miss. Summary: Revenue beat expectations, driven by Search, Ads and Cloud strength Advertising broadly solid, though YouTube Ads slightly missed Cloud revenue comfortably exceeded estimates, reinforcing growth narrative Operating income missed marginally as costs

“I would say he should be very worried, yeah. He should be.” “Not much” doubt that interest rates will be lowered Warsh wouldn’t have gotten the job if he favored hikes Says his administration could use “a softer touch” in its immigration enforcement operations Trump is speaking in an interview on NBC. Oil is up

Sometimes you stumble across a chart that completely recalibrates your perspective on human advancement, and here is one. Flipping on a light switch is something almost everyone alive takes for granted and yet to our ancestors it was a magical, awe-inspiring event. So cheap is lighting now that people don’t bother to turn off the

Everything software and SAAS is suddenly toxic. The release of Anthropic’s new AI tool called Claude Plugins raised the stakes. It demonstrated that a large portion of software could be obsolete. It’s a new phase in AI. We’re through the creative phase, now it’s the creative-destruction phase. The company released 11 open-source plugins that were

Sector Overview: Mixed Day for Technology, Healthcare Shines The stock market today presented an intriguing tableau of contrasts, with technology stocks experiencing turbulence, particularly within the semiconductor sector, and the healthcare sector shining brightly. While many tech giants faced downward pressure, there were distinct areas of resilience worth noting. 📉 Semiconductor Sector Struggles: The semiconductor

Update your economic calendars. Non-farm payrolls will now be released Wednesday, Nov 11 and CPI will be released Friday, Nov 13. The JOLTS report will be released tomorrow, Feb 5. The US government shutdown ended yesterday afternoon but not before delaying some economic data that was due this month. The early indications on the upcoming

Prior 57.1 The good news is that Spain’s services sector continues to maintain growth conditions to start the year. However, there is a notable downshift with the reading here well missing on estimates. Sluggish demand was to blame with an easing of new business growth, the weakest since June last year. That aside, employment growth

Breaking. The talks were reportedly cancelled because Iran refused to engage in non-nuclear issues, according to Axios. We heard earlier that talks wouldn’t be about ballistic missile stockpiles but the US seemed to accept that at the time. Evidently, they’ve had a change of heart or the reporting was wrong. I flagged a few weeks

Prior was -2295K This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke with China’s President today on the phone and the readout from the call from Trump is positive. That’s led to some small ticks in equity markets. I have just completed an excellent telephone conversation with President Xi, of China. It was a long and thorough call, where many important subjects were discussed, including

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continues to rebound after the strong selloff experienced in the last couple of weeks of January. The greenback remains supported by improving US data with the recent US ISM Manufacturing PMI potentially hinting to stronger economic activity going forward. If the data continues to come out strong, traders will

Even though Donald Trump became U.S. president, which analysts considered the most favorable option for Elon Musk and his companies, 2025 was a poor year for Tesla, with annual revenue falling 3% to $94.8 billion and fourth-quarter car sales dropping 11% year-on-year. That said, the numbers were better than market expectations: Quarterly earnings per share

Business activity index 57.4 vs 54.4 prior Employment 50.3 vs 52.0 prior New orders 53.1 vs 57.9 prior Prices paid 66.6 vs 64.3 prior Supplier deliveries 54.2 vs 51.8 prior Inventories 45.1 vs 54.1 prior Backlog of orders 44.0 vs 42.6 prior New export orders 45.0 vs 54.2 prior Imports 48.2 vs 50.3 prior Inventory

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we will get the final services PMI for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The market reacts the most to new information, so the Flash data is more important than the final PMIs. Therefore, unless we get big deviations, the market reaction will likely be muted. The main

Prior was +41K (revised to +37K) Goods +1K versus -3K last month Service +21K versus +44K last month small business 0K vs +9K prior medium businesses +41K vs +34K last month large businesses -18K vs +2K last month Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.4% last month Wages for job changers 6.4% vs 6.6% last

The won steadied as plans for NPS dollar bond issuance raised hopes of reduced FX pressure. Summary: South Korea’s won pared losses after reports the NPS may issue dollar bonds Pension fund aims to diversify funding amid FX volatility Dollar bond issuance could ease pressure on the won Review of FX hedging strategy now under

Headlines: Decisive moment for gold as the recovery continues Gold remains in recovery mode as it halves the losses; risk of another flush still high USD/JPY continues to test the limits of Japan’s patience this week GBPUSD trades near the 2025 highs as the focus turns to the US data and the BoE decision Eurozone

Prior +1.9%; revised to +2.0% Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.3% The headline reading meets estimates with core annual inflation easing slightly in January. That being said, just be wary that Eurostat has introduced some methodological changes to the inflation estimates as of this report, as seen here. Overall, the changes in

Prior 51.4 Final Composite PMI 53.7 vs 53.9 prelim Prior 51.4 Key findings: Output growth rebounds to a five-month high Solid increase in new work Job losses continue, despite improved business optimism Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The latest survey revealed an encouraging start to 2026 for the UK

Nomura sees Japan’s rate cycle extending into 2027, with risks tilted toward a higher terminal rate. Summary: Nomura sees a high probability of further BoJ tightening through 2027 Base case assigns 60% odds to three rate hikes by mid-2027 Policy rate would rise to 1.50%, the highest level since 1995 A hawkish scenario sees four

China’s services sector started 2026 on firmer footing, though confidence remains cautious despite easing cost pressures. Via private survey RatingDog / S&P Global. Summary: China’s services sector accelerated to a three-month growth high in January New business and export orders strengthened at the start of 2026 Employment rose for the first time in six months

New Zealand Q4 2025 employment report and China’s private survey services PMI feature on the calendar today. New Zealand’s labour market is expected to show signs of stabilisation in the December quarter, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain steady at 5.3%. Recent higher-frequency indicators suggest a modest pickup in employment growth over recent months,

China’s export-driven yuan gains are set to continue in 2026, but policymakers are poised to cap the pace of appreciation. Summary: Analysts expect the yuan to strengthen further in 2026, but policy resistance remains Export inflows and FX conversions have surged to record levels Consensus forecasts cluster near 6.9 per dollar, with upside risks flagged

A Powell pardon would not break the Senate logjam, with Tillis holding firm until the Fed probe concludes. Summary: Senator Tillis says a Powell pardon would not lift his Fed nominee blockade He insists the Justice Department investigation must conclude first Tillis’ stance continues to stall Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process Republicans lack the votes to

The pair is quietly one of the more notable movers in the major currencies space today, with USD/JPY up over 100 pips to 156.70 levels now. After the speculated ‘rate checks’ on 23 and 27 January, it has been a quick recovery as the yen fails to hold onto gains. As a reminder, Japan authorities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been in recovery mode in this first half of the week after experiencing one of the worst drawdowns in decades. The fundamentals are still against rising prices, so we either get stuck in a wide range below the January’s high or will see another flush lower in the next weeks or

The sharp pullback since last week is not deterring gold buyers whatsoever and we’re already seeing that in the price action over the past two days. The recovery is looking solid and we’re now approaching a decisive moment on the charts for the precious metal as outlined here. As the parabolic surge higher cools and

The over 2% gains so far today brings gold back above the crucial $5,000 mark. That’s a big psychological win for dip buyers but even more so when you look at the charts. After the sharp pullback from Thursday last week to Monday this week, we are seeing a solid recovery in precious metals in

US House votes to end government shutdown Fed’s Barkin: Inflation remains above target, expect more progress Fed’s Miran: I think we need to cut rates by about a percentage point this year US military shot down Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier – report BoA: global equity ‘risk-love’ metric hits euphoria levels Markets: Gold

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for EUR/USD and currently sandwiching the current spot price, with the expiries resting at 1.1800 and 1.1850. They’re not ones that tie to any technical significance but could act as bookends for price action in

Via oil price dot com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.5 mn barrels Distillates -2.3 mn bbls Gasoline +1.4 mn — The inventory data referenced here comes from a privately conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which polls oil storage facilities, refiners, and other industry participants on a voluntary

Earlier: Yuan seen rising in 2026, but China signals resistance to rapid gains The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed

South Korea’s won firms as pension fund weighs dollar bond issuance Bank of England set to hold rates February 5 as inflation cools but wage risks linger Markets cautious on Warsh-led Fed outlook as rate pricing holds steady China services PMI rises to three-month high as demand and hiring improve Nomura sees BoJ rates rising

Australia’s services sector surged to a near four-year growth high in January, but softer confidence signals caution beneath the strong activity rebound. Summary: Australia’s services sector posted its strongest growth in nearly four years in January New business rose at the fastest pace since April 2022, including stronger export demand Hiring accelerated for a second

New Zealand Q4 2025 employment report. This is just the data post. I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s Q4 jobs data showed improving labour momentum beneath a higher jobless rate, leaving policy expectations largely unchanged. Unemployment rate hit a decade high at: 5.4% (prior 5.3%; exp 5.3%; RBNZ forecast 5.3%) Employment change: +0.5% q/q (prior 0.0%; exp +0.3%; RBNZ forecast +0.2%) Participation rate: 70.5% (prior 70.3%; exp 70.3%; RBNZ forecast 70.3%)

China’s central bank said it will inject 800 billion yuan via a three-month outright reverse repo, using a tool introduced in late 2024 to keep banking system liquidity ample without changing benchmark interest rates. Summary: PBOC announced a large three-month liquidity injection Operation uses outright reverse repos introduced in late 2024 Move aims to keep

It was a poor day for US equities in general, with tech shares leading the declines. The S&P 500 closed down by 0.8% with the Nasdaq down by 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Dow fared better in closing down by just 0.3%. What is interesting about the selloff yesterday is how tech-heavy they were for the most

Rose 2.0% m/m in January prior -2.1% In NZD terms the index rose 1.3% m/m stronger NZD offsetting higher commodity prices overseas Earlier: New Zealand jobs report shows firmer hiring but unemployment edges to a 10 year high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

AMD beat Q4 forecasts but cautious guidance dented confidence as investors pushed for faster AI upside. Summary: AMD beat Q4 earnings and revenue expectations Guidance disappointed, triggering a sharp after-hours sell-off AI revenue momentum lagged high-end investor expectations China demand contributed materially to AI chip sales Management reaffirmed ambitious long-term AI growth targets Advanced Micro

The BoE is set to hold rates steady, with messaging and the vote split key to near-term market reaction. Summary: Bank of England expected to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% Inflation set to fall sharply, but wage growth remains a concern Guidance likely to stay vague and data-dependent Vote split and tone seen as

Views are mixed on a Warsh-led Fed, with rate pricing steady but conviction limited. Summary: Investor views on a Warsh-led Fed remain mixed rather than uniform Some participants see scope for a dovish narrative centred on productivity gains Fed funds futures continue to imply two cuts this year, though conviction appears limited Warsh is widely

It’s never a dull moment in these markets. Bitcoin fell to the lowest since Trump was re-elected earlier today, touching $72,903. That was below the Liberation Day low and painted an ugly potential candle on the chart. But it may have been a trap. After the weak hands were shaken out, the buyers stepped in

Earlier: PBOC to inject 800 billion yuan via three-month reverse repo operation Yuan seen rising in 2026, but China signals resistance to rapid gains The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9397 Injects 75bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% This article was written

Japan’s services-led recovery gained pace in January, though confidence remains cautious despite easing cost pressures. Summary Japan’s services sector growth accelerated to an 11-month high in January New orders and export demand strengthened alongside rising backlogs Employment continued to expand as firms responded to higher workloads Input cost inflation eased to its softest pace in

It’s getting uglier by the moment in US stock markets. The S&P 500 is down 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite is down 2.2%. The big drags are software stocks and Some notable declines: Paypal -20% Shopify -11% Accenture -10% Qualcomm -5% Oracle -4.6% Nvidia -3.6% Microsoft -3% Amazon -3% Meta -2.6% Google -1.5% Tesla -1.2%

Non-farm payrolls and JOLTS were delayed this week but they will soon be rescheduled. The House ended the US government shutdown and surely the Senate will now follow. The vote was 217-214. I don’t think this will lead to much relief in the market as the deal was flagged on the weekend. Trump on Friday

Bitcoin is being sucked lower in a broad risk-off trade that’s also hammering the Nasdaq. Bitcoin is down 4.4% now to $74,969. On the breaks the big figure, it could quickly test the weekly low of $74,564. A fall below that would be the lowest since November 2024, just before the US election. The Trump

According to a note from Bank of America, their proprietary Global Equity Risk-Love indicator just surged to the 95th percentile last week. It’s an indicator that indicator tracks a basket of sentiment drivers including positioning, put-call ratios, investor surveys, price technicals, volatility, spreads, and correlation measures. Right now, the reading is screaming “Euphoria.” As you

US January ISM manufacturing index 52.6 vs 48.5 expected January final US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.9 prelim Fed’s Bostic: Inflation is to stay high and is a source of concern Non-farm payrolls delayed: US won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday Trump: I’m reducing tariffs on India to 18%

OpenAI’s reported chip review highlights mounting pressure on AI hardware vendors as inference speed and efficiency become critical competitive battlegrounds. Summary: OpenAI is assessing alternatives to Nvidia’s latest AI chips for some workloads Review has been underway since last year, according to sources Focus is on inference speed for complex ChatGPT queries Reflects rising pressure

Warsh is a fantastic choice to lead the Fed Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year Underlying inflation is not a problem Market yields haven’t gone up by that much Better growth in the future doesn’t need higher interest rates Not reading a lot into metal market volatility In the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong

Oil prices have jumped on this headline and stocks are at the lows of the day. The latter was already underway but the oil price jump was more noticeable. The market is acting like this was some kind of averted Pearl Harbor when it was probably a drone miles away. I wouldn’t get too excited

I’ve been mulling the real US economy all day because with all the hoopla around gold, Trump and a war with Iran, the market is losing focus on the power of interest rates and the mountains of cash that Congress have shovelled towards the real economy. One notable barometer is the Dow Jones Transportation Average,

📊 Tech sector dips while semiconductors and Amazon soar: A market snapshot Sector Overview Today, the technology sector is facing a challenging landscape, marked by declines in major stocks like Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT), each dropping by 1.24% and 1.14% respectively. However, the semiconductor industry offers a more optimistic picture with Broadcom (AVGO) emerging

HFM begins 2026 by announcing the release of its latest Trading Courses and a new eBook. HFM aims to reinforce the company’s commitment to empowering traders through high-quality education. Products have been put together for both beginners and experienced traders. The new Trading Courses cover essential market concepts, practical trading strategies, and risk management techniques.

USDJPY looks poised to revisit the intervention level as US data strengthens Oil prices plunge as US-Iran risks ease; market remains supported amid demand outlook The sharp pullback in precious metal takes a breather for the time being The Indian Rupee surges against the Dollar as Trump announces trade deal and lower tariffs The Australian

US equity markets have quickly turned lower after a positive open and it’s largely being driven by tech. The Nasdaq is now down 1% and some laggards include: PYPL -17.7% INTU -1.8% MU -5.1% ADBE -4.9% NVDA -2.8% MSFT -2.2% ASML -3.6% Those big losers obscure some large gains on the other side of the

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is going to be the French CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.6% vs 0.8% prior, while the HICP Y/Y is seen at 0.6% vs 0.7% prior. Unless we see big deviations, the data is unlikely to change much for the ECB. As a

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. It’s not one that ties too closely to any key technical levels but could help to limit upside extensions later on in the session, if any. The pair has been

RBA unanimous 25bp hike, lifts inflation forecasts and signals more tightening in 2026 RBA raises its cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%, as widely expected China’s NPC Standing Committee to hold meeting on February 4 (ahead of full March 5 meet) Japanese stocks surge as tech rebounds, banks boost risk appetite. KOSPI rockets. ANZ sees

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.4% vs +0.6% y/y expected Prior +0.7% The estimates here are much softer than anticipated, with the headline reading being the weakest since December 2020. As always is the case, core annual inflation matters the most and we’ll get a sense of that in the final reading the next time. But at

German 30-year bund yields just rose to the highest since 2011, at 3.55% in something of a warning sign but let’s keep things in perspective: US 30-year rates are nearly 5%. It’s not a borrowing crisis but it is working against ECB rates, which aren’t likely to be lowered further after a series of cuts

Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US as envoys prepare to meet in Istanbul, even as military tensions and strike risks remain elevated. Summary: Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US amid rising military pressure Senior US and Iranian envoys are expected to meet in Istanbul later this week Talks come

China’s NPC Standing Committee to hold meeting on Feb 4 The NPC Standing Committee meeting on 4 February looks procedural rather than macro-moving, based on the proposed agenda flagged by state media: lawmakers are set to review a report on NPC deputy qualifications. That said, markets still pay attention because “Standing Committee” meetings can sometimes

ANZ expects the RBA to lift rates by 25bp in February, while stressing the move would be framed as cautious and data dependent rather than the start of a tightening cycle. Summary: ANZ expects the RBA to hike rates by 25bp at its February meeting Sticky trimmed mean inflation and a tight labour market underpin

Richmond Fed President Barkin is usually a good barometer on where the core of the FOMC stands. Rate cuts so far have helped insure health of job market while Fed completes “last mile” of returning inflation to target. Economy remains “remarkably resilient.” Given growth, low unemployment rate, hard to imagine either businesses or consumers moving

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong

The Reserve Bank of Australia decision today is the focus, due at 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time: Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decision RBA preview: Focus on the forward guidance RBA tipped to hike – poll Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The volatile moves since the latter stages of last week is cooling but it doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet. For now at least, gold and silver is at least seeing the sharp pullback take a bit of a breather. However, it doesn’t mean that all is good again to resume the

The RBA delivered a unanimous 25bp hike tio take the cash rate back up to 3.85% and upgraded its inflation profile, with the SMP implying further tightening in 2026 even as the Bank kept guidance explicitly data dependent. First rate hike since 2023 and after an easing cycle. Summary: RBA hiked and it was unanimous,

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

From yesterday: Non-farm payrolls delayed: US won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday This will just continue to paint a bad image on the incumbent US administration, with this adding to the delays from the longest federal government shutdown in US history late last year. The BLS has said that the latest

Japan kept intervention ambiguity intact while leaning on US coordination language and downplaying any suggestion the government is cheerleading a weaker yen. Summary: Japan’s finance minister avoided confirming or denying any FX intervention activity She pushed back on the idea that PM Takaichi was “talking up” a weak yen Officials again refused to discuss specific

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices plunged yesterday at the open following a couple of positive developments over the weekend. In fact, a top Iranian security official said that a structure for negotiations with the US was being set up and Trump confirmed later that Iran was seriously talking to US. Moreover, an Iranian official stated that

We are headed towards a surveillance state, simple as that. The combination of cameras and microphones everywhere, combined with AI to parse it all, makes the power of mass surveillance too alluring for the government to ignore. And Palantir is right there to help out. Already, there are reports that ICE is using Palantir technology

NZ data. Excluding apartments, flats, and retirement village units, the number of consents for new houses was down 6%. +26.2% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

We are still looking to bring inflation down without sacrificing much The economy is actually in a really good position The labour market is really strong and domestic demand is recovering But it is just that we’re supply constrained, and it might be more so than what we thought a while back We’re still adopting

The decision to hike the cash rate was unanimous as the RBA produces a more hawkish tilt in their decision today. While the decision to hike in itself isn’t surprising, it is more so the language that is accompanying the decision that is moving markets. The RBA went from trying to sell a narrative of

It will now take longer for inflation to return to the target And this is no longer an acceptable outcome We cannot allow inflation to get away from us again The pickup in inflation is not down to just one factor It is due to a combination of factors across a broad range of components

Reserve Bank of Australia decision. I’ll have more to come on this separately. Background: ANZ sees RBA 25bp rate hike today, but no commitment to further tightening Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decision RBA preview: Focus on the forward guidance RBA tipped to hike – poll Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold

Goldman Sachs says gold’s rally is structurally driven by central bank dollar diversification, not speculative excess, supporting a long-term role for the metal in portfolios. Summary: Goldman Sachs sees gold’s surge as structurally driven, not speculative excess Central bank diversification away from the US dollar is the key catalyst Gold markets are small, amplifying the

Palantir 4Q adj EPS 25C, est. 23C Palantir 4Q Rev. $1.41B, est. $1.33B Palantir Outlook 2026 Rev $7.182 bln – $7.198 bln vs estimate $6.22 bln Positive for Palantir Tech (PLTR) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese and South Korean equities rebounded sharply as tech stocks and bank earnings lifted risk appetite across the region. Summary: Japanese equities rebounded sharply, led by tech and bank stocks Nikkei jumped over 3% as risk appetite improved and AI names rallied Strong bank earnings, including Mizuho, added to upside momentum South Korea’s KOSPI surged

Australian December 2025 building permits: The Reserve Bank of Australia decision today, due at 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time: Australian dollar chops, await pivotal RBA decision RBA preview: Focus on the forward guidance RBA tipped to hike – poll Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast RBA hold This article was written by Eamonn

The Reserve Bank of Australia could be the first major global central bank to hike rates in this cycle. We are set to get a decision on the cash rate at 10:30 pm ET and the consensus is for a 25 basis point hike to 3.85%. It’s far from a sure thing as economists only

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system. Allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” Previous close 6.9444 Injects 105.5bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pushed back on reports questioning Nvidia’s role, saying the company “loves working with Nvidia” and expects to remain a major customer long term, dismissing speculation around chip dissatisfaction as overblown. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump’s critical mineral reserve plan aims to build an “industrial buffer stock” model, using Exim-linked financing plus private capital to reduce supply-chain shock risk. Summary: Donald Trump announced a US “critical mineral reserve” initiative, aimed at securing supplies for domestic industry. The plan is framed as a strategic stockpile (often reported as “Project Vault”) to

The US-India trade deal cuts tariffs sharply in exchange for India ending Russian oil imports, easing pressure on Indian exports while reshaping energy flows. Summary: US and India reached a trade deal cutting US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% The US will remove a punitive 25% tariff tied to India’s Russian oil purchases India

We are into the swan song phase of Bostic’s term as Atlanta Fed President as he will retire on February 28 so I wouldn’t put too much weight on these comments: Not through with inflation from tariffs It’s a huge undertaking for Warsh, I wish him the best. He’s got a tall task To have

I highlighted the opportunity in the beaten-up US manufacturing economy earlier today and a pair of reports today underscored the green shoots in an area that’s been in recession for years. First, the S&P Global look at US manufacturing was revised in the final report, then the ISM manufacturing survey rose at its fastest pace

Prior was 47.0 Key findings: Input cost inflation ticks up to 37-month high Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This smells a bit like a recovery could be underway. Output has rebounded rather swiftly from the drop in December, optimism about future output has

Prior 47.9 Key findings: Softer falls in output and total new orders Outlook brightens as employment rises for first time in four months Charge inflation returns as cost burdens rise at fastest rate in over three years Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italian manufacturing began

Silver experienced its worst single-day loss in over four decades last Friday, plummeting nearly 30% to settle just below $85/oz. Gold didn’t escape the carnage either, shedding more than $500/oz to close at $4,865/oz. Despite the dramatic selloff, Scotia Capital’s precious metals team is viewing this as a healthy correction rather than a fundamental shift

Summary: China’s official PMI data point to persistent domestic weakness at the start of 2026, according to analysis from ING. The official manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction, reinforcing doubts that December marked a genuine turning point. Price indicators showed tentative improvement, offering some relief from deflation concerns. Private-sector PMI data painted a more constructive

Trump writes on Truth Social that he’s reducing tariffs on India, which should be another positive for risk appetite: Tariffs lowered to 18% from 25% India to halt Russian oil imports in favor of US and potentially Venezuelan supplies to reduce conflict funding. India to “move forward” to reduce their tariffs and non tariff barriers

A snapshot of the closing levels: STOXX 600 +1.0% German DAX +1.0% Frances CAC +0.8% UK FTSE 100 +1.1% Spain’s IBEX +1.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.1% There as a nice turnaround in European stocks today, which traded in lockstep with the improvement in US futures and equity markets. The early poor mood carried over from

Time to revise the US economic calendar as the The Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday because of the government shutdown. Politicians say they will vote to end the shutdown on Tuesday so the market isn’t too fussed but this is annoying. Tuesday’s JOLTS report has also

Prior was 47.9 Prices paid 59.0 vs 59.0 expected (58.5 prior) Employment 48.1 vs 44.9 prior Production 55.9 vs 50.7 prior New orders 57.1 vs 47.7 prior (revised to 47.4) Look at that jump in new orders, which is the biggest jump in a month since 2020. That’s also the best reading since 2022. Comments

Credit Agricole notes that a lot of the negatives surrounding the US dollar are now priced into the currency already. And given the circumstances in play, that provides a scope for the greenback to rebound in perhaps the coming three to six months period. The firm argues that despite upgrading their forecast for gold this

Best reading since May 2022 Prelim was 51.9 Prior was 51.8 Exports remained a source of demand weakness, The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour and is expected to tick up to 48.5 from 47.9. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “News of the joint largest

China’s January PMI data point to a soft start to 2026, with weak domestic demand offsetting pockets of resilience in high-tech manufacturing. Summary: China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction in January, underscoring persistent domestic demand weakness at the start of 2026. Services and construction activity also fell into contraction, marking the weakest non-manufacturing

Oracle plans a $45–50bn capital raise in 2026 to fund cloud infrastructure expansion, splitting funding between equity and a one-off bond issuance. Summary: Oracle plans to raise $45–50bn in 2026 to expand Oracle Cloud Infrastructure capacity. Funding will be split roughly evenly between equity and debt. Equity raising includes mandatory convertibles and up to $20bn

Prior 48.8 Euro area manufacturing activity ticks up in January, moving closer to the growth threshold. Of note, manufacturing output increased in January for the tenth time over the past eleven months. However, the mood was slightly dampened by a fall in new factory orders since December. Overall, job losses also gathered pace but at

Monday kicks off with manufacturing PMI releases for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S., while Tuesday, attention will turn to Australia with the RBA’s monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., Tuesday will bring the JOLTS job openings report and New Zealand will publish its employment change q/q, the unemployment rate, and the labour cost

Prior 49.6 This marks another marginal decline in Spain’s manufacturing activity, with the steepest decline in new orders for nine months seen. That was led in part by an accelerated downturn in export volumes. But overall, at least output conditions are seen stabilising on the month. Besides that, cost pressures were seen intensifying with cuts

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.5% German retail sales closes out the year with a marginal increase, with the December estimate also being 1.5% higher than the same month a year ago. Overall in 2025, retail sales were seen up 2.7% compared to 2024 in real terms. In nominal terms, that figure reflects a 3.8% growth

Prior 50.6 Key details: New export orders rise for first time in four years Business optimism at highest level since before 2024 Autumn budget Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2026, showing encouraging resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions. Rates of output and

Bitcoin Price Prediction Focuses on $70,900 to $72,645 Support Zone Key takeaways for crypto traders and investors Bitcoin futures are down roughly 10%, extending a developing bearish structure Order flow shows sellers in control, with buyers increasingly passive Recent rebounds lacked acceptance and failed to repair market structure Downside risk remains elevated unless behavior changes

I saw some interesting charts last week showing that Florida housing inventory was trending lower. It went against one of the strongest macro trends in the past two years — housing weakness. Now it’s early days but that’s a theme worth exploring as there are some beaten up assets in the housing space and a

Today’s stock market exhibits a mix of excitement and trepidation as major movers and sectors paint a varied picture. While certain stocks encounter challenges, others revel in unexpected gains, crafting an intriguing trading landscape. 🚗 Auto Manufacturer Impact: Tesla Takes a Dive A significant focal point is the 2.95% dive seen in Tesla (TSLA). The

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The final two days of last week will go in the history books. Gold fell by more than 16% in just two days and extended the losses to 21% today. The risks for a correction were everywhere as the conditions didn’t justify the parabolic surge of the last two weeks. The market got

The Friday move was one for the ages and even then, it still hasn’t put a bad mark to gold and silver’s performance to start the year. Even with the drop on Friday and the one today, gold is up some 8% so far in 2026 and silver up a little more closer to 9%.

It is still a volatile environment with the heavy selling hitting earlier just now at the tail end of Asia trading. But as we shift to European morning trade, we’re seeing buying appetite return so far on the session. Gold is up over $350 from its lows, cutting losses to “only” 2.6% on the day

Headlines: Precious metals bounce back to trim losses on the day Has the bull market in gold ended? History suggests yes European stocks turn things around after a rough start to the new week USD/JPY inches up to start the day after Takaichi kerfuffle What’s at stake now as the US partial shutdown drags to

Prior 50.7 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we will get the final PMIs for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. The market reacts the most to new information, so the Flash data is more important than the final PMIs. Therefore, unless we get big deviations, the market reaction will likely be muted. The data is

Australian job ads surged in January, signalling renewed labour demand and reinforcing expectations the RBA may need to tighten policy. Summary: Australian job advertisements surged 4.4% m/m in January, snapping a six-month run of declines and marking the strongest monthly gain in four years. The rebound adds to evidence the labour market remains resilient despite

The start of the day was a rather poor one for major indices in Europe. That as risk sentiment was on the rocks after some heavy selling in Asian equities as well. The turbulent environment across broader markets didn’t help with Nvidia pulling investment on OpenAI, volatile selling in precious metals, cryptocurrencies coming under pressure,

Nasdaq futures have staged a rebound from the lows, but broader orderFlow context suggests this move remains corrective inside a bearish auction, rather than the start of a sustained bullish phase. But first, I dive into the bigger picture of the Nasdaq futures in my video below, enjpy: Video walkthrough: Key Nasdaq futures levels and

The mood in the air this time around is vastly different to the shutdown we saw at the end of last year. That is because this latest episode is widely expected to end swiftly and also it does not include the whole of the US government. For some context, the funding process had been moving

Prior 45.8 Swiss manufacturing activity continues to bounce back modestly but still continues to be in contraction territory for now. That being said, the output component is at least seen improving to 50.8 in January. And that marks the first return to the growth threshold for production since August last year. Procure does not that

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons

Earlier: China Pres Xi revive push for yuan as reserve currency The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system. Allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” Previous close 6.9566 Injects 75bn yuan in 7 RRs @ 1.4% (net 75.5bn drain after maturities today) This

Japan’s election-driven fiscal debate is keeping bond and FX markets on edge, with any hint of looser policy risking renewed volatility. Summary: Japanese markets remain highly sensitive to fiscal policy signals ahead of the February 8 snap election, according to a former senior currency official. Any expansion of tax relief risks renewed selling pressure in

Over the weekend, Japan prime minister Takaichi spoke about the yen currency’s weakness in saying that it has been beneficial for exporters. It’s not the kind of bias you would want to hear from her especially in such a sensitive time. For one, it comes off as tone deaf amid households grappling with higher living

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to hike the Cash Rate by 25 bps and bring it to 3.85% following hot employment and inflation data. In fact, the latest jobs report showed a much bigger than expected gain in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% vs 4.3% prior. That’s when

Fitch sees India budget as growth-neutral as fiscal consolidation slows Bitcoin dip puts Strategy marginally underwater, but balance-sheet risks remain limited China PMI setback underscores fragile domestic demand at start of 2026 – ING Japan govmt walk back Takaichi yen remarks as election nears and intervention risk lingers China private manufacturing PMI rises in January,

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance but the expiries could provide a bit of a floor for price action on any downside extensions later in the day.

Campaign comments on the weak yen have exposed the political and market tightrope Japan is walking ahead of its snap election. Summary: Japan’s prime minister highlighted the benefits of a weak yen during the election campaign, creating tension with official efforts to curb excessive FX moves. Subsequent clarifications sought to neutralise market reaction, stressing neutrality

Prior -0.4% UK house prices inched a little higher to start the year after a bit of a drop at the tail end of 2025. The house price index (seasonally adjusted) moved up in January but the average house price (non-seasonally adjusted) was seen down slightly from £271,068 to £270,873. Again, that is to do

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

BoJ policymakers signalled moderate economic momentum and stickier inflation trends, endorsing careful future rate increases if forecasts unfold as expected. Summary: BOJ policymakers agreed the Japanese economy has recovered moderately but noted uneven momentum in parts of the economy. Inflation is projected to continue rising moderately, underpinned by wage and price interactions and import pass-through.

Data due from Australia, Japan and China today. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is

Summary: Bitcoin’s pullback into the mid-$75,000s has pushed Michael Saylor’s Strategy marginally below its average bitcoin cost base. While the firm is technically “underwater” on paper, analysts see no balance-sheet stress or forced-selling risk. Strategy’s bitcoin holdings are unencumbered, and its debt structure allows significant flexibility. The main impact of lower bitcoin prices is on

Fitch said India’s budget underscores macro stability and fiscal credibility, with growth seen steady. Summary: Fitch Ratings said India’s latest budget reinforces its commitment to macro stability, even as fiscal consolidation slows. The agency views the FY27 deficit target of 4.3% of GDP as modest progress, reflecting the growing difficulty of further consolidation. Fitch described

Summary: Japan’s government is trying to walk back and “de-risk” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s weekend remarks that were widely interpreted as being comfortable with a weak yen. And also insensitive to Japanese people grappling with higher cost of living brought on somewhat by the lower yen driving up the JPY cost of imports. A government

China’s private manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, but rising costs and weak confidence point to a fragile and uneven recovery. Summary: China’s private-sector manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, signalling a second straight month of modest expansion. Output and new orders improved, with overseas demand—particularly from Southeast Asia—providing support. Employment rose slightly and backlogs

Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in January, posting its strongest improvement since 2022 as demand, output and hiring all rebounded. Summary: Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion in January, recording its strongest improvement since August 2022. Output and new orders rose for the first time in well over a year, signalling a broad-based recovery

India’s budget-driven derivatives tax hike is seen as a near-term equity headwind, with investors also disappointed by the lack of immediate measures to stem foreign outflows. Summary: India’s budget proposal to raise taxes on equity derivatives trading is being flagged by analysts and fund managers as a near-term headwind for domestic equities, mainly via higher

Australia’s manufacturing sector started 2026 with stronger growth momentum, supported by rising orders, hiring, and improved confidence. Summary: Australia’s manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in January, marking a third consecutive month above the growth threshold. New orders strengthened sharply, including the first rise in export demand in five months, lifting production momentum. Employment

Australia’s Inflation Gauge cooled on the month but edged higher on the year, keeping inflation worries, and RBA hike risk,front and centre. Summary: The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge rose 0.2% m/m in January, a sharp slowdown from 1.0% in December. The annual pace edged up to 3.6% y/y from 3.5%, keeping the signal consistent

China is doubling down on its long-term push to internationalise the yuan, but structural and policy constraints still limit its reserve-currency appeal. Summary: President Xi Jinping, in an article published on Saturday in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal, has renewed calls for the yuan to evolve into a global reserve currency, underscoring Beijing’s

Oil opens softer as traders fade some geopolitical premium, while OPEC+ keeps March output unchanged and leaves the post-March path deliberately open. Summary: Oil is starting the week on the back foot after a strong run-up, as traders reassess how much geopolitical risk is already priced in. OPEC+ agreed to hold output policy steady for

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Not too much change from late Friday, USD mostly a tiny bit higher: I’ll be back with some weekend news soon …

Mon: US Holiday (MLK Day), Eurogroup Summit; EZ Final HICP (Dec), Canadian CPI (Dec), Chinese GDP (Q4), US Leading index (Oct), Housing Starts/Building Permits (Oct), Philadelphia Fed (Jan), New Home Sales (Nov), Australian Flash PMIs (Jan) Tue: PBoC LPR, EU Economic & Financial Affairs Council, UK Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings (Nov), Swiss Producer Prices

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve Fed’s Musalem: Further interest rate cuts not advisable Eyes on Iran this weekend as Trump talks about ships heading there once again Fed’s Waller: Dissented in favour of rate cut because policy remains too much restrictive Fed’s Bostic: I want clear evidence

The earnings calendar stays busy next week with major implications for the Nasdaq, the consumer outlook, and the AI trade. This week was a major mixed bag with Meta and Microsoft going in opposite directions. The AI narrative faces another major test next week as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) will drive sentiment for the

The Canadian dollar is down against the US dollar but it’s actually outperforming every currency aside from the dollar. That’s a better read on how the loonie has reacted to the latest Trump tariff threats than USD/CAD alone, which is up 105 pips to 1.3594. Even with that pair, if you zoom out over a

Rates are now at neutral rate Economy doesn’t need stimulus Expects economy to continue growing above trend, boosted by fiscal policy Expects inflation to decline to 2% but sees risk it could remain above Further cuts only needed if jobs market were to decay or inflation falls Hawkish stuff from Musalem and the market thinks

Thankfully, there’s no triple-levered silver ETF, or at least one with any trading volume. With silver down 33% today, that would be an extinction-level event. We saw something similar in the VIX ETF implosion a few years ago as it was liquidated. This time, there’s only a twice-levered ETF to worry about. That’s the AGQ

Oil prices are marginally higher today as we watch and wait on Iran. Trump is out once again reminding everyone that an ‘armada’ is heading towards Iran and it’s even bigger than the one that went to Venezuela. That’s obviously a threat and will hang over any negotiation. This is the kind of thing that