Tesla beat adjusted EPS and delivered a sizeable gross margin upside in Q4, but a revenue miss and softer free cash flow kept the overall result mixed. Summary: Tesla beat on adjusted EPS and key profitability metrics, but missed revenue and came in light on free cash flow, keeping the quarter “mixed” overall. Adjusted EPS […]

MAS kept policy unchanged, signalling confidence in resilient growth while keeping a close watch on inflation risks in 2026. Summary: Singapore’s MAS kept monetary policy unchanged, maintaining the prevailing rate of appreciation for the S$NEER policy band, with no change to its width or centre. The decision was widely expected and follows MAS keeping the

As intervention risks continue to stay heightened, there is plenty of uncertainty with regards to the USD/JPY outlook in the short-term. What is the trigger point for the ministry of finance (MOF) to take action? At what levels will they be comfortable with USD/JPY trading in the aftermath? Without any real change to the fundamental

S&P 500 Trader Update. Grinding Higher, But Momentum Is Selective The S&P 500 continues to trade constructively, but recent price action suggests the market is grinding rather than accelerating. Earlier buying pressure has cooled, and order flow now reflects more two-sided trade near recent highs. This is typical behavior when markets approach important reference levels

Economists expect the RBI to stay on hold in February, with policy focus shifting to transmission and currency stability. Summary: A Reuters poll shows the Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25% at its February 4-6 policy meeting. Most economists also see rates staying unchanged through 2026, after cumulative

There are no major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. It’s the same scenario that we’ve been facing for the past few days now. Trading sentiment is going to be all about the other key drivers more so than anything else. That being the prevailing weakness in

Germany’s chancellor warned a weak dollar and strong euro are squeezing exporters, reviving calls to strengthen the euro’s global role via a digital currency. Summary: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the weakening U.S. dollar is becoming a material burden for Germany’s export-driven economy. Merz said the euro’s strength against the dollar is raising costs for

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar remains on the backfoot as the bearish momentum set by the USD/JPY intervention risks kept weighing on the greenback. US Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday said that they are not intervening in dollar-yen now and that gave the dollar a bit of a boost although it didn’t last long. The

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low tier releases that won’t change anything for the ECB or the market. Policymakers are now focused on the euro strength and how that is going to impact inflation going forward. We already had a softer than expected

Microsoft beat Q2 expectations with Intelligent Cloud strength and a $625B commercial backlog, while Azure’s +38% ex-FX growth stayed steady and in line. Summary: Microsoft beat Q2 FY2026 expectations on both adjusted EPS and revenue, signalling resilient demand across its core franchise. Adjusted EPS was $4.14 vs $3.92 expected, while revenue came in at $81.27B

investingLive will take part in iFX EXPO Dubai 2026, where traders will have the opportunity to attend live trading sessions led by Greg Michalowski, our Director of Client Education and Technical Analysis. Taking place from 10–12 February 2026 at the Dubai World Trade Centre, iFX EXPO Dubai will host the Trading Festival, featuring a six-hour

Consumer spending has been resilient Government shutdown effects should be reversed this quarter Activity in housing sector weak A good part of slowing in jobs market represents declining workforce, though hiring demand has clearly slowed as well Inflation has eased significantly but remains somewhat elevated Inflation should trend towards 2% once tariff inflation has passed

Summary: All four major Australian banks now expect a 25bp RBA rate hike next Tuesday, following a stronger-than-expected Q4 inflation outcome. The shift contrasts with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, which continue to call for a hold. The debate centres on whether the 0.9% q/q rise in trimmed mean inflation is sufficient to justify near-term

Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to Fed funds, as expected Powell: The economy is coming into 2026 on a firm footing ECB’s Schnabel says rates expected to remain at current levels for an extended period Bank of Canada rate decision: No change to the overnight rate, as expected BOC’s Macklem: There’s a clear consensus

Business confidence remains exceptionally strong despite a pullback, but rising inflation and wage signals are emerging as a key risk. Summary: New Zealand business confidence eased in January but remains at extremely elevated levels, according to ANZ’s latest survey. Activity indicators point to a solid Q4 GDP outcome, with experienced activity and employment improving across

Australia’s Q4 trade prices point to improving terms of trade, offering modest support for national income and the AUD. Summary: Australian export prices rebounded strongly in Q4, rising 3.2% q/q after a sharp decline in the prior quarter. Import prices rose 0.9% q/q, defying expectations for a decline and marking a clear turnaround from Q3.

Gold rising in leaps and bounds. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Major banks are lifting gold price forecasts, with several now flagging $6,000/oz scenarios for 2026. Deutsche Bank sees persistent investment and central bank demand driving further upside, with an upside scenario near $6,900/oz. Societe Generale also targets $6,000/oz, warning its forecast may prove conservative. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citi all see material upside

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Stronger inflation has locked in February RBA hike expectations, supporting the AUD but leaving risks of further tightening alive. Summary: MUFG and CBA both say persistent inflation and tight labour conditions have strengthened the case for a February RBA rate hike. Australia’s latest CPI showed headline inflation rising to 3.8% y/y, while trimmed mean inflation

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” The rate set under 7 today for the first time since May 2023. Previous close 6.9475. Injects 354bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%:

Summary: Meta beat Q4 expectations on EPS and revenue, driven by strong advertising and Family of Apps performance. Reality Labs losses widened, while Q1 revenue guidance surprised to the upside. A higher 2026 capex outlook flags heavier long-term investment. – Meta delivered a solid set of Q4 2025 earnings, beating expectations across headline earnings, revenue

The FOMC decision is coming up at the top of the hour. Here was what it said in December. Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments.

Vote was 10-2 with Waller and Miran voting for cuts Prior Fed funds target range was 3.50-3.75% Statement saw growth at a ‘solid pace’ vs ‘moderate pace’ previously Statement sees inflation as ‘somewhat elevated’, same as before Says unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization vs ‘edged up’ previously The line about “downside risks

The US has outlined a number of demands to Iran but the NYT reports that there is no indication from Iran that they’re giving into any of them, or even willing to negotiate them. US President ⁠Donald Trump is once again threatening that the United States is ready to launch a military attack against Iran

If an accumulation of evidence or a shock comes, we’re prepared to change our stance if something crystallizes, we will assess Canadian firms’ adjustments to US tariffs will last at least through end-2027 I hope the Fed retains its independence The USD safe haven status has been dented Recent USD weakness is largely driven by

This comment is no surprise to the market, which is pricing in about a 20% chance of a rate cut this year. However I think it’s the first time a top ECB official has said the “extended period” line. Rates are right in the middle of the range of the past decade and that gives

Overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% BOC says The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed vs Oct forecast the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period Prior statement said “current policy rate at about the right level” and the new one says “Governing Council judges

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar continued to weaken yesterday as the bearish momentum set by the USD/JPY intervention risk remained intact. Late in the day, we got one final spike lower as Trump kind of endorsed a weak dollar by saying that he wasn’t concerned with the decline at all. The selloff in the

That marks a notable drop from the 6.2 estimate in December last year, with the index returning into negative territory. The current conditions index also fell back from 16.6 to 0.0 on the month, suggesting some headwinds for the economy at present. UBS notes that: “The survey was conducted during the escalation of tensions over

Well this is going to be a boring post given the big news is the President of the United States endorses trashing the US dollar and thereby ramping up inflation and interest rates. Clown show. For the session ahead here in Asia-Pac we’ll have Bank of Japan December meeting minutes. The December BoJ meeting was

The ONS says that it plans to introduce “improved data and methods” for groceries in their consumer price inflation (CPI) statistics. And that this will take effect from February 2026. So, just be wary of that. The impact of the change is minimal but not entirely inconsequential with the UK stats office noting that past

The weakness in crude oil prices over the past year have been a big reason why US inflation has diminished but so far this year it’s been a reversal. Crude has risen from $56 at the turn of the year to $62 on the April contract. It’s up $1.77 today or nearly 3%. It’s testing

Early this morning, ECB’s Kocher said that if the euro were to appreciate further and further, at some stage that might create a certain necessity to react in terms of monetary policy. Not because of the exchange rate itself, but because the exchange rate translates into less inflation, and this becomes a monetary policy issue.

The “AI infrastructure” trade has moved from chips to storage, and the moves are becoming meme-like. We have seen a historic repricing in the memory and storage sector in the past few months. If you thought the semiconductor rally was tired, look at the hardware board today. Money is rotating aggressively into legacy storage names

Sector Overview: Technology and Healthcare in the Spotlight The US stock market today presents a patchwork of mixed performances, with technology and healthcare sectors standing out as the key players. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, showcases impressive gains. Nvidia (NVDA) gains 1.19%, while Broadcom (AVGO) leads the pack with a rise of 1.41%, driven by

Gold is breaking out of the recent range and surging to a fresh high at $5122. It’s a fresh all-time high that’s come even with silver consolidating after blasting above $100 on Friday. The strong late buying is a good sign that the bulls aren’t yet exhausted, or at least that they’re rotating into more

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold broke through a key technical level yesterday and extended the gains into new record highs. We had a weak US Consumer Confidence report that provided support to the market, but the momentum increased when talking to the press Trump suggested that he wasn’t concerned with the decline in the dollar at all.

Prior was +3602K Gasoline +223K vs 1009K exp Distillates +329K vs -583K exp Refinery utilization -2.4% vs -2.0% prior The private data from late yesterday showed: Crude -247K Gasoline -415K Distillates +2000K As of late January 2026, the market has focused heavily on a series of significant gasoline supply builds. Recent data shows: Inventory Surges:

US January consumer confidence plunges to the lowest since 2014 US home price data from CaseShiller shows a 1.4% yearly gain in November vs 1.2% expected US sells 5-year notes 3.823% vs 3.820% WI RBC: Gold rally has ‘room to run’; sees potential for $7,100 Richmond Fed composite index -6 vs -7 prior ADP weekly

Strap in for a big day in financial markets as we get two central bank decisions and a trio of major earnings reports. The day kicked off with big bids in gold that saw a rally as high as $5311. It’s currently pared back to $5275 but is still up $86 on the day, or

S&P 500 Technical Analysis Today Order Flow Highlights the Key Levels Buyers and Sellers Are Watching Date: January 28, 2026 Market focus: S&P 500 futures (ES) Framework: orderFlow Intel by investingLive.com Key takeaways for traders and investors The S&P 500 remains structurally supported, but upside momentum has slowed. VWAP and POC clustering near 5,229 to

Prior -26.9 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The US dollar jumped, particularly against the yen after comments from the Treasury Secretary: We have a strong dollar policy US not intervening in the currency market to support the Japanese yen On the Fed, hope they have an open mind Miron’s term could continue Have not narrowed or expanded list of 4 Fed candidates

Tether has emerged as one of the world’s largest private gold holders with approximately 140 tons of physical bullion worth around $24 billion, according to new reports. The stablecoin issuer has been quietly accumulating 1-2 tons per week and storing the metal in a former Swiss nuclear fallout bunker. To put that in perspective: 140

Every major institution in Canada is expecting the BOC to be on hold today and that is no surprise. Market pricing is for the central bank to stay on hold with a ~92% probability and pretty much no clear cut rate moves whatsoever all through this year. Most analysts are sharing that view but how

From the man himself: “A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed

Former European Commission President José Manuel Barroso recently claimed that relations between Europe and the United States are at their lowest point since NATO’s founding. It’s hard to disagree, especially in light of former President Donald Trump’s recent remarks, such as that “Europe was created to harm the United States” and that the U.S. has

Summary: Members saw wage gains and pass-through supporting a durable wage–price cycle Real rates still negative; credit growth and easy conditions viewed as increasingly stimulative Neutral rate highly uncertain; preference for flexible, meeting-by-meeting adjustments Yen weakness and long-end moves discussed via inflation channel, not as a policy target The Bank of Japan’s December meeting minutes

Trump may move early on naming the next Fed chair, potentially aligning the announcement with this week’s policy decision. Summary: Trump may announce Fed chair nominee as soon as this week Timing could coincide with the January FOMC decision Powell’s term runs until May, but Trump appears keen to move early Analysts see political incentive

Once again, there aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day with the full list seen below. There are some large ones for EUR/USD but they are too far away to be of any impact. The central bank bonanza is back in town with the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decisions

This is just a quick update, I’ll be back with more to come on this separately. Data here: Australian Trimmed Mean CPI quarterly 3.8% y/y (expected 3.6) The other readings mainly also stronger than expected. Reserve Bank of Australia meet February 2 and 3. A 25bp rate hike now the baseline expected. This article was

Introduction: What Is a Regulated Broker? A regulated broker is a company that provides financial services and has received a license from a recognized financial authority. Examples of these authorities include the FCA in the UK, ASIC in Australia, CySEC in Cyprus, and the NFA in the US. To obtain this license, brokers must follow

Central banks: Fed preview: forget about the decision, focus on Powell No Fed rate cut expected today but what about in the months ahead? BoC preview: An uneventful decision with focus on the new projections No surprises expected from the BOC today but what are analysts saying about the next move? Headlines: Gold surges into

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and maintain the neutral stance. There should be limited changes to the statement as the central bank awaits more data before considering further rate adjustments. Note, that we won’t get the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) at this meeting, so the focus will be

The S&P 500 posted a record high close yesterday and is looking to build on that in the day ahead. Tech shares are the ones leading the charge, helping to keep sentiment buoyed. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% with Nasdaq futures up 1.0% on the day currently. Dow futures are only seen up 0.1%

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The interest rate decision today will be a straightforward one, with the Fed set to leave policy unchanged. There might be slight tweaks to the statement, with focus on the risks to the economy especially the labour market. As for forward guidance, that is likely to be maintained as per December. That leaves us with

China approves first imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips Goldman Sachs: investor risk appetite remains elevated despite geopolitical risks BoJ minutes recap: weak yen and labour crunch shape rate hike debate Trump may time Fed chair pick with ‘on hold’ January FOMC policy meeting Westpac: inflation delivers casting vote for February RBA hike ECB’s Cipollone

The IMF says it is stress-testing scenarios that include a run on dollar assets as investor unease over US policy deepens, even as it acknowledges the greenback’s dominance is unlikely to vanish suddenly. Summary: IMF is modelling scenarios including a rapid sell-off of US dollar assets Comments reflect rising unease over tariffs, Fed independence, and

The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the policy rate steady at 2.25% while maintaining the neutral stance amid trade uncertainty and risks to the economic outlook. Since the last meeting in December, Canada’s economic data has softened a bit. The December Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y eased to 2.7% from 2.9% in November, and the

Discover what it takes to quit your job and trade full-time The post Should You Quit Your Job To Trade Full-Time? appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Swiss ZEW and the Italian Consumer Confidence. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted. The price action throughout

China’s approval of Nvidia’s H200 AI chip imports signals a pragmatic shift as Beijing prioritises domestic AI development. Summary: China approved first imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips Initial allocation covers several hundred thousand units Chips reportedly earmarked for three major tech firms Move aligns with China’s push to accelerate AI development Approval seen as

Trump’s promise to quickly sign a year-round E15 bill puts biofuels back in focus as Congress struggles to deliver a permanent fix. Summary: Trump signals fast sign-off for year-round E15 gasoline legislation E15 (15% ethanol) faces summer sales limits under fuel-volatility rules Funding-bill effort failed; lawmakers pivoted to a task force plan Farm and ethanol

ECB’s Cipollone says Europe’s economic resilience is holding, but geopolitical risks threaten growth and strengthen the case for financial autonomy. Summary: ECB sees geopolitical risks reinforcing case for European payments autonomy Euro-area economy remains resilient, with data potentially beating forecasts Investment strength supports growth without undermining price stability Persistent geopolitical uncertainty risks weighing on investment

This is just a data post, I’ll be back with detail and analysis separately. In brief, nearly all the readings are higher than expected. Its increasingly looking like a February 3rd rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD/USD jumped to its highest since February 2023 above 0.7022. This article was written by Eamonn

Goldman says investors remain firmly risk-on, brushing aside rising geopolitical uncertainty. Summary: Goldman says investor risk appetite remains elevated Sentiment sits around the 67th percentile Risk appetite index at highest level since April 2021 Equity positioning remains broadly bullish Flows expanding into Europe, Japan and EM Goldman Sachs says investor risk appetite remains elevated despite

Late in the day we’re getting a headline from Trump who says “the dollar is doing great”. He went on to say “I don’t think the dollar has declined too much” and that he’s not concerned about the decline and that it’s finding a fair level. The market is taking that all as an endorsement

Westpac says persistent core inflation leaves the RBA little choice but to hike in February, while favouring a cautious wait-and-see stance thereafter. Summary: Westpac now expects a 25bp RBA hike in February Trimmed mean inflation seen as delivering the “casting vote” Underlying inflation momentum still uncomfortably high February move framed as likely one-off, not a

Prior to the hot Australian CPI data earlier here, the odds of a 25 bps rate hike next week were ~61%. And now after the dust has settled, they have increased to a ~72% probability. It’s not a slam dunk as market players are still reserving some caution just in case the RBA continues to

With all else that is happening in the major currencies space with regards to the US dollar and Japanese yen, the Swiss franc is quietly making waves since the start of the year. As the safe haven status of the dollar and yen both crumble, traders are finding safety and comfort in the franc amid

Kocher is arguing his standpoint based on the impact of a stronger euro on inflation pressures. He says that: “If the euro appreciates further and further, at some stage this might create of course a certain necessity to react in terms of monetary policy. But not because of the exchange rate itself, but because the

Wednesday is the Federal Reserve decision and the US dollar is quickly becoming a topic of conversation. The FOMC is highly unlikely to cut rates or signal another imminent move but even the hint of a dovish inflation forecast is likely to weigh on the US dollar. That will be enough to push the euro

BoJ minutes show yen weakness and labour tightness are key inputs into the timing of further rate hikes. Summary: BoJ debated yen weakness and labour shortages as inflation drivers December rate hike lifted policy rate to 0.75% Some members see inflation becoming more entrenched Weak yen viewed as feeding underlying inflation pressures No preset hiking

The Bank of England Governor Bailey writes that stronger banks are only part of the stability story as risks increasingly migrate beyond the traditional financial system. Summary: Bailey links past crises to today’s need for vigilance and resilience Post-GFC reforms have materially strengthened bank stability UK regulatory tweaks aim to support growth without weakening safeguards

Australia’s December CPI reinforces the case for an RBA rate hike as underlying inflation re-accelerates and services pressures intensify. Summary: Australian CPI surprised higher across headline and core measures Trimmed mean inflation rose to 0.9% q/q and 3.4% y/y Six-month annualised core inflation sits near 3.9% Services inflation accelerated sharply, led by travel and rents

The dollar slid to multi-year lows as political uncertainty, tariff threats and concerns over Fed independence deepened the market’s “sell America” trade. Summary: U.S. dollar hits four-year low as losses extend for fourth session Trump comments reinforce perception Washington tolerates weaker dollar Trade threats and shutdown risks add to U.S. policy uncertainty USD/JPY slips below

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.8 mn barrels Distillates -0.6 mn bbls Gasoline +1.0 mn — The inventory data referenced here comes from a privately conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which polls oil storage facilities, refiners, and other industry participants on a voluntary basis. The API report

Silver is up 2% today to $106.37 but it’s down intraday from a high of $113 and hasn’t challenged yesterday’s high near $118. It’s been a magical run for silver but there are red flags and signs of exhaustion emerging. For one, it looks like retail traders piled in. That’s usually a sign of a

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3.747% prior Bid to cover vs 2.35 prior Here was a preview from BMO: Today’s $70 bn 5-year auction comes after the strong reception to yesterday’s 2-year offering, which stopped-through by 1.5 bp with aggressive end-user bidding. With every nominal coupon auction stopping through so far in 2026, it’s become increasingly difficult to imagine that

CaseShiller data for the 20-largest metropolitan areas: Prior annual price rise 1.3% Monthly November price +0.5% vs +0.3% prior Non-seasonally adjusted 0.0% vs -0.3% November national numbers Annually 1.9% vs +1.7% prior (revised to +1.8%) Monthly +0.6% vs +0.4% prior Index 439.3 vs 436.7 prior Is the US housing market coming to life? It’s take

UK shop price inflation surged in January, driven by food and cost pressures, complicating the outlook for a smooth fall in headline inflation. Summary: UK shop price inflation jumped to 1.5% y/y in January Fastest pace since February 2024, BRC data shows Food inflation accelerated to 3.9%, led by meat and produce Higher energy costs

Prior was 89.1 Details: Present situation 113.7 vs 116.8 prior Expectations vs 70.7 prior Jobs plentiful vs 26.7% prior Jobs hard to get vs 20.8% prior Separately, the Richmond Fed manufacturing and services numbers were released at the same time. Manufacturing shipments vs -11 prior Services index vs -6 prior Composite index vs -7 prior

Metal are melting up at a breathtaking pace, but the miners haven’t priced it in yet. Gold just printed $5,075 and Silver is tearing the roof off at $112. We are in uncharted territory for the metals, but if you look at the equity side, the miners are still trading like gold is stuck back

Gold prices have shattered the $5,000/oz barrier, and according to the latest analysis from RBC Capital Markets, the momentum behind the precious metal shows no signs of exhaustion. Gold is up $66 today to $5080 as it consolidates above the big figure. While the bank’s high-scenario forecast had anticipated gold reaching the $5,200 region later

I’ve been thinking about this Pan Am advertisement from 1963, and it strikes me that we don’t talk enough about what an absolute miracle modern aviation represents. Not just as a technological achievement, but as perhaps the single greatest example of what happens when you get the regulatory framework right and let competitive capitalism do

Medicare spending is skyrocketing, but the government just decided that insurers aren’t getting a cut of it. Today was a rude awakening for US healthcare providers. The chart above shows the “inevitable” doubling of Medicare spending from 2023 to $1.9 trillion, which is the entire bull thesis for the sector. The Trump administration just flipped

Important for the ECB to have full optionality ECB must be able to act quickly and decisively ECB wants optionality in any direction Sentiment indicators suggest slightly upward bias Downside risks are quite substantial ECB is fine as long as deviations from 2% target are modest German stimulus and savings rate support growth forecast Right

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Australian markets reopened today after a long weekend with the ASX 200 up 0.9%. Naturally the gains were led by by miners, including Capstone Copper, which was up 7.7%. BNP also jumped 3.1% to pass Commonwealth Bank and become the country’s largest company for the first time since October 2024. I made the case for

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer heads to China to mend ties and diversify Britain’s economic partnerships as relations with the U.S. grow more uncertain. Summary: Starmer makes first UK PM visit to China since 2018 Trip aims to reset ties and boost trade and investment Visit comes amid strains with the U.S. under Trump UK–China

US health insurers fell after hours after the Trump administration proposed a near-flat 2027 Medicare Advantage rate increase, far below expectations and coupled with tighter billing rules. Summary: US health-insurer stocks fell sharply after hours on news of weaker-than-expected Medicare Advantage rates. The Trump administration proposed just a 0.09% average increase for 2027, far below

ECB’s Kocher sees inflation risks in both directions, stresses full optionality Gold analysis for today show profit takers coming at gold futures price $5094 The S&P 500 remains on track to reach new record highs amid positive risk sentiment The Indian Rupee stalls around record lows as the EU and India sign a historic trade

In today’s trading landscape, tech giants like Microsoft and Apple rallied strongly, while the healthcare sector faced significant declines, reflecting a diverse market performance. 📈 Tech Sector Strengthens: A Glance at Today’s Movers Microsoft (MSFT): Exhibiting a solid gain of 1.24%, as investor confidence bolsters tech’s backbone. Apple (AAPL): Leading the consumer electronics space with

For the full year 2025 +0.6% y/y (prior +0.1%). I’ll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Micron is poised to expand memory chip production in Singapore as global shortages intensify amid surging AI-driven demand. Summary: Micron plans new memory chip investment in Singapore Expansion driven by global memory shortage and AI demand Singapore already produces most of Micron’s flash memory Rivals Samsung and SK Hynix also accelerating capacity Supply shortfall may

BoA highlights that US tax payers are set for big refunds this year in light of the latest tax cuts. It’s an 18% increase from the prior three years it will almost all come from Feb-April. Consumers should get about $65bn in the form of larger-than-usual tax refunds due to favorable treatment of tips and

Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI), AKA services producer price index, captures service-sector price pressures that can be a leading signal for consumer inflation and broader cost dynamics in a service-driven economy. not likely to move yen too much upon release. Similarly, Australian business confidence/conditions not likely to impact AUD too much upon release either.

Stock Market Premarket Insights and Sector Rotation Deep Dive January 27 Market Open Prep for Investors and Traders The U.S. equity market is sending a very clear message heading into today’s session. This is not a random stock picking environment. This is a capital rotation market. When investors look at premarket trading volume, relative strength,

Australian business conditions improved in December as sales and profits strengthened, while elevated capacity utilisation suggests limited spare capacity. Summary: NAB business conditions rose to +9 in December Business confidence edged higher to +3 Sales and profits strengthened, employment steady Capacity utilisation remains elevated at 83.2% Data point to improved Q4 economic momentum Australian business

Earlier: Japan December 2025 PPI +2.4% y/y (expected +2.4%, prior +2.7% Nothing in these data to contradict the BOJ rate hike path. Data post only, more detail to follow separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 opened lower yesterday but eventually erased all the losses and reached new weekly highs. The sentiment changed last Wednesday when Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. That was the TACO trade that everyone was waiting for.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The day itself doesn’t contain any large expiries whatsoever, so that is quite straightforward. But in any case, there are bigger drivers of trading sentiment at play at the moment. So even if there are any large

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The January FOMC meeting is expected to pass quietly, with rates on hold and markets focused on Powell’s tone rather than policy action. January FOMC meeting, Fed widely seen holding rates unchanged Powell comments on labour market and neutral rate in focus Political context may overshadow policy guidance Goldman sees two Fed cuts in 2026,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

China is preparing targeted policies to manage AI-driven labour disruption while promoting job creation and employment stability. Chinese state media, Xinhua, with the info. Summary: China to issue policy on AI’s impact on employment Focus on job creation and managing labour disruption Graduate and youth employment prioritised Urban–rural employment systems to be unified Long-term safeguards

This February, something new is coming to Dubai. The Trading Festival, an event powered by iFX EXPO, will make its debut in the heart of the burgeoning emirate and key fintech hub. Running alongside and under the same roof with iFX EXPO Dubai 2026 at the Dubai World Trade Centre (Za’abeel, Halls 5 & 6),

Morgan Stanley doesn’t expect the Fed to pull off any surprises this week, keeping monetary policy unchanged. However, there could be some light changes to the statement but overall the firm expects the central bank to reaffirm a more easing bias. For some context, their call fits very well with market expectations as Fed funds

Many traders and investors are looking at Gold and Silver Prices Today The precious metals market has entered a period of historic volatility and “hysteria,” with silver leading a parabolic charge that has seen prices double in just over a month. According to Adam Button, silver’s recent surge to a fresh all-time high of $112

Given the prevailing fundamental backdrop, there’s never going to be a perfect time for Tokyo officials to intervene in the currency market. So if they want to send a message to markets that it isn’t going to be a free ride in driving up USD/JPY, they might think now’s a good time as any to

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” The rate set under 7 today for the first time since May 2023. Previous close 6.9540 PBoC injects 402bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at

It’s crazy to think that at this time last year, silver was trading at $30. And here we are today talking about near $10 price swings in just one day. These are nearly once-in-a-lifetime moves we’re seeing in the commodities space and it’s absolutely wild. Since the start of the year, the run up in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

Brazil’s price advantage and record harvest position it to deepen its dominance of China’s soybean imports in early 2026, despite renewed U.S. supply. Summary: China set to lift Brazilian soybean imports in early 2026 Record South American output keeps Brazilian prices dominant U.S. purchases concentrated among state-owned buyers only Tariffs and pricing sideline private Chinese

US November durable goods orders 5.3% vs 3.2% expected Dallas Fed January manufacturing index improves to -1.2 from -11.3 Trump sends armada to Iran region, says the situation is “in flux” What are the betting odds for various Federal Reserve chairman candidates Why there is upside to US consumer spending in early 2026 Atlanta Fed

China’s industrial profits rebounded sharply in December, beating expectations and offering early signs of easing deflationary pressure. Summary: China industrial profits rose 5.3% y/y in December Growth beat expectations for a sharp decline Producer price deflation eased to a one-year low December rebound snapped a two-month contraction Full-year profits rose for first time since 2021

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. None of the data will change anything for the markets or the ECB, so the reaction will be muted. Traders are now just waiting

Goldman Sachs says that this week’s FOMC meeting is likely to be a boring affair, with the Fed not going to offer any policy changes and only some minor tweaks to their statement language. Overall, that won’t give markets too much to work with about what will come next and Fed chair Powell will also

Japan’s service inflation signal stayed firm in December, underscoring wage-driven price pressure and keeping the BoJ alert to further tightening. Summary: Japan service price indicator rose 2.6% y/y in December Labour-intensive sectors saw the strongest gains Tight job market continues to lift service inflation BoJ sees scope for further rate hikes if trends persist Yen

Major banks see gold pushing toward new highs as central-bank demand, geopolitics and prospective Fed easing reinforce bullion’s appeal. Summary: Morgan Stanley sees gold reaching $5,700/oz in H2 Geopolitical risk and central-bank buying drive demand ETF inflows expected to strengthen as rates ease Fed rate cuts in 2026 seen as supportive tailwind Société Générale forecasts

This via the Financial Times (gated): I’ll post more separately as it becomes available. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Japanese yen remains a key focus in markets this week after having seen Tokyo officials more than likely performed a ‘rate check’ on Friday last week. That was enough to alleviate the pressure on the currency with USD/JPY stumbling down from 159.00 to hit a low of 153.30 yesterday. However, the drop yesterday was

TD Securities says the dollar’s 2025 slide reflects a correction from strength, not a rush to exit, with only modest downside expected in 2026. Summary: Dollar fell 8% trade-weighted in 2025, ~10% versus majors Pullback reverses gains since late 2023 USD remains near long-term averages and multi-decade highs No sign of accelerated flight from dollar

Trump raises South Korea tariffs after accusing Seoul of breaking trade deal Summary: Trump announced a tariff hike on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%. The move targets autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and all reciprocal tariffs. Trump blamed South Korea’s legislature for failing to approve a 2025 trade deal. The agreement was reached with President

January FOMC preview: Fed seen on hold with little new guidance Morgan Stanley sees gold at $5,700 as banks turn even more bullish Japan service inflation holds near highs as wage pressures persist China industrial profits rebound in December as price pressures ease China to roll out policy to manage AI job impact and boost

Axios is out with an interview with Trump and it’s starting to sound like an attack on Iran is getting more likely. Trump came close to ordering a strike on regime targets in Iran earlier this month over the killing of thousands of protesters. Instead he delayed the decision while also moving military assets to

As the January 28 FOMC meeting looms, the race to replace Jerome Powell is nearly done, as Trump promised an announcement this month. We’ve seen a massive shift in the leaderboard over at Kalsh as the media hypes up Rick Rieder’s chances. I think this is overdone but BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed

A weakening dollar creates an opening for the RMB, but Miao Yanliang argues China’s reforms, not US decline, will determine whether the renminbi secures a durable global role. Source here. Summary: Dollar primacy is fraying, loosening barriers in the international monetary system History shows currency transitions require timing and institutional reform Economic scale alone cannot

Silver has further extended gains, hitting $116/oz and up more than $13/oz on the day. To offer a sense of how big a move that is, as recently as 2020, the total price of silver was just $11/oz. This is an unheared of move in terms of magnitude in silver market. It’s reminiscent of the

Tech stocks mixed: Communication services buoy market amid semiconductor struggles The US stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable divergences across sectors. While technology stocks showed varying performance, the communication services sector provided a buoyant force, counterbalancing struggles within semiconductors. 🔍 Sector Overview Technology and Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector faced a challenging day,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

Silver is up 9% or $9.20 to $112, which is a fresh all-time high. Note that it just broke $100 for the first time on Friday and it’s gone straight through the big figure in an incredible parabolic move. This is one for the history books as silver has now doubled since December 15. What

LUGANO, SWITZERLAND – January 26, 2026– Telcoin Association announced today that its TEL token is now listed on Kraken, one of the world’s largest and most established cryptocurrency exchanges. With over 13 million registered users across 190+ countries, Kraken provides TEL with immediate access to a global trading community on regulated infrastructure spanning the United

Prior was -10.9 Production +11.2 vs -3.0 prior New orders +11.8 vs -6.6 prior Capex +7.1 vs -4.6 prior Employment +8.2 vs -1.4 prior Outlook +2.9 vs -12.3 prior This is a nice improvement with rebounds across the main metrics. New orders, in particular, look strong. Comments in the report. I find the one about

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

Headlines: Japanese yen pushes higher as intervention risks mount It’s hysteria in the gold market as prices hit another record high: Is this justified? US futures see nervous start to the week, big tech earnings in focus Oil prices rebound as Trump mentions “massive armada” heading to Iran Another shutdown looms large after Democrats pull

The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking estimate is out for the fourth quarter and the reading was left unchanged after durable goods orders: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 26, unchanged from January 22 after rounding. After this

USD/JPY falls to a fresh low as official sees a “high sense of urgency” Australia is closed today for Australia Day but AUD hits the highest in 15 months Gold blasts through $5000 to all time high. What to look for next Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the largest military purge in years Japan PM

Since the more hawkish than expected October’s FOMC decision, the market got a bit less certain on multiple Fed rate cuts as the division among members became clearer. The Fed eventually delivered one last cut in December but signalled that additional adjustments will be data-dependent. In January, we started to get better and better US

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Today – orderFlow Intel Signals a Late-Stage Intraday Shift Bitcoin futures are trading in a late bullish intraday phase, where price is still supported structurally, but momentum and efficiency are fading. This does not yet qualify as a bearish reversal, but it does mark an important transition zone where traders need to

Just last week, betting odds have a US government shutdown at around 10% only. But after the shooting death of civilian Alex Pretti by federal agents, it has changed things completely. Just days ago, a full-year funding deal seemed within reach. Now, Democrats are vowing to oppose the funding bill for the Department of Homeland

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended the gains into new record highs today following a strong selloff in the US Dollar on yen intervention risks. The narratives underpinning gold continue to be de-dollarisation, geopolitical tensions, and so on. Nothing new really. I would say that this is now more about FOMO rather than something fundamental. I’m not

With all else that is going on in the world, it’s easy to forget that China and Japan are still in the midst of a political spat since the latter stages of last year. As a reminder, all of this came about after Japan prime minister Takaichi took office. And she was quoted in saying

Introduction: What Is a Spread in Trading? In trading, a “spread” is the difference between two prices: the bid price and the ask price. The bid price is the highest amount a buyer is willing to pay for an asset, while the ask price is the lowest amount a seller is willing to accept. This

Prior was -2.2% (revised to -2.1%) Durable goods orders ex-transport 0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior 0.1% Durable goods ex-defense 6.6% vs -1.5% prior (revised to -1.3%) Non-defense capital goods ex-air 0.7% vs 0.3% expected Prior 0.5% (revised to 0.3%) These are very good numbers but the market reaction in the FX market was muted, although

S&P 500 Technical Analysis After the Gap Down at This Week’s Open – Why Traders Needed Patience Near Friday’s Close The S&P 500 opened the new trading week on Monday, January 26, 2026, with what looked like a scary gap down. From Friday’s close near 6,933.75, futures briefly dropped to around 6,879, a move of

The S&P 500 is off to a flyer this year, but beneath the surface of the headline index, a handful of names are absolutely ripping. While the broader market debates the “soft landing” versus “no landing” scenarios, these 25 stocks have already cleared the +20% hurdle less than a month into the year. The clear

Prior 87.6 Current conditions 85.7 vs 86.0 expected Prior 85.6 Expectations 89.5 vs 90.3 expected Prior 89.7 German business sentiment stagnates to start the year with the expectations/outlook index dropping a little. The current conditions shows a marginal improvement but it’s nothing optimistic and doesn’t really suggest a material betterment in business activity. As price

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Last Thursday, Trump spoke to the press about different topics following the meetings in Davos at the World Economic Forum. The comment that caught oil traders’ attention was him saying that a “massive armada” was heading in the direction of Iran. Oil prices started to rise on potential hedges into the weekend risk.

It’s a nervous start to the week in the equities space as risk trades are reserving some caution amid the madness elsewhere. The Japanese yen is a key focus point with intervention risks on the extreme while precious metals continue to fly as the parabolic move continues. All of this with the dollar continuing to

The first supposed ‘rate check’ took place in European trading on Friday and then there was another late on in US trading. Although on the latter, the dollar was already crumbling across the board so USD/JPY traders also took that as a sign to abandon long positions. The nerves are continuing to Asia trading today

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight will be the German IFO index. It’s expected to tick higher to 88.2 vs 87.6 prior, which would mirror the improvements seen with the German ZEW index and the German PMIs. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB though, so the market

USD/JPY is down 167 pips to the lows of the day. It’s been volatile trading so far today as the pair initially traded near these levels befoer bouncing by more than 100 pips. In the past two hours though, it began trending lower and has now taken out the lows. The drop today takes the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar sold off across the board on Friday following rumours of the NY Fed conducting rate ​checks on the USD/JPY pair. The market took that as a signal of a potential intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen and the unwinding of positions weighed on the greenback. This wasn’t a fundamental-driven

The market is warming up for the week and we already have some big moves indicated. Australia is on holiday today but the big notable change is that USD/JPY contionues to sink. The pair rose as high as 159.23 on Friday in the aftermath of the BOJ but it’s now down nearly 500 pips from

Late last year, long-time tech investor and analyst Dan Niles said his best idea for 2026 was cash. So far, that’s proven to be mostly correct as the Mag7 names have been struggling or uneven. On Friday, they got a lift but only Meta (+1.7%) and Alphabet (+7.1%) are higher on the year so far.

Last week’s move in long-dated Japanese bonds was a scary one. 30-year yields jumped more than 25 basis points in a day, a range that was one the hallmark of an entire year in Japanese bond markets. The move came after PM Takaichi called an election and immediately began talking about higher spending. It’s a

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. Trading sentiment continues to revolve around the same factors from Friday last week. The Japanese yen is in its own world, with traders needing to deal with intervention risks bordering on the extreme now. That especially after

The Canadian dollar is flat in early trading but slightly undeperforming in a broad US dollar selloff. The reason is that Trump on the weekend threatened 100% tariffs against Canada. Trump said the tariffs will come if Canada “makes a deal with China.” “China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of

The Australian dollar is up 21 pips to 0.6913 today, which is the highest since October 2024. The Aussie benefited from a strong jobs report on Friday and the market is beginning to sniff out rate hikes. The cash rate right now is 3.60% but the OIS curve prices that at around 4.30% by the

It’s a banner moment for the gold bugs as it hits $5000 per ounce for the first time. It’s a monster rally since August and includes a 17% rally so far this year. Despite how impressive that is, it pales in comparison to silver, which is up 48% year-to-date. It’s all great news if you’re

With all the drama in the United States and Japan at the moment, some massive moves in China are flying under the radar. President Xi Jinping undertook a massive purge of the military. Gen. Zhang Youxia was accused of leaking nuclear-weapons data to the US and accepting bribes for promotions, including of a defense minister,

Mon: Australian Holiday (Australia Day), German Ifo (Jan). Tue: Chinese Industrial Profits (Dec), US Richmond Fed (Jan), US Consumer Confidence (Jan). Wed: Fed Policy Announcement, BoC Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, Australia CPI (Q4), German GfK (Feb), NZ Trade (Dec). Thu: Riksbank Policy Announcement, CBRT Minutes, EZ Money Supply (Dec). Fri: German Import Prices (Dec),

Japan’s intervention risk is back in sharp focus after PM Takaichi warned on Sunday against speculative moves, following a violent yen reversal and rate-check chatter late Friday. Summary: Japan PM Sanae Takaichi warned officials stand ready to act against “speculative and highly abnormal” market moves as the yen weakens and bond yields rise. The remarks

US January S&P Global flash services PMI 52.5 vs 52.8 expected Trump administration weights total blockade of Cuba – report Yen intervention talk sends USD/JPY sharply lower Canada November retail sales +1.3% vs +1.2% expected Markets: WTI crude oil up $1.77 to $61.13 US 10-year yields down 1.6 bps to 4.235% Bitcoin flat at $89K

Politico reports: The Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country, three people familiar with the plan said Thursday. American built up a lot of force in the Caribbean for Venezuela, maybe they redirect it to Cuba, or maybe

We have a massive slate of mega-cap tech, critical industrial bellwethers, and the titans of energy all reporting next week. The key theme will be justification. Valuations are stretched in the tech sector, and the market needs to see not just beat-and-raise quarters, but clear evidence that AI capex is going to translate into revenue.

Eyes are on the yen on a big move lower in USD/JPY ahead of the weekend. The pair is down 202 pips on the day now to 156.40, which is a sharp reversal after rising to 159.22 when the Bank of Japan left rates on hold. There is some chatter that’s unconfirmed that Japan’s Ministry

The US dollar is coming under some broad pressure ahead of the weekend, particularly in USD/JPY. There could be fears of intervention in the thin liquidity at the open on Sunday or it could reflect the record highs in precious metals and increasing talk of de-dollarization. Another curious move today is the rally in oil

The latest reports we got on the Federal Reserve Chairman decision were last week and suggested that Trump would make a decision either just before or just after going to Davos. He left Davos yesterday and is now back in Washington so it could be on the agenda for today or this weekend. It seems

Japan’s flash PMI data point to a strong start to 2026, with growth broadening beyond services into manufacturing. Summary: Composite PMI hit a 17-month high in January Services activity led gains, manufacturing returned to growth Export orders rose for first time in years Backlogs surged, lifting hiring to a multi-year high Cost pressures and price

Declines to respond when asked about talk of ‘rate checks’ Says watching forex moves with a sense of urgency The silence and lack of follow through remarks says a lot considering how she would normally like to interject and try and jawbone the USD/JPY currency pair lower. It leans towards the tone of action speaks

US railway CSX isn’t seeing a macro rescue in 2026. Management is planning for flat industrial production, modest GDP growth and sticky inflation within the firm above 3%, with customers cautious under tariff pressure. Housing and autos remain headwinds, trucking is soft, and there’s no near-term catalyst—leaving infrastructure spending and power demand as the lone

Oil Technical Analysis Today: Crude Oil Bears Stay in Control Below $60, but Here Is Exactly When the Bias Changes Date: January 23, 2026 Market: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) | Micro Crude Oil (MCL) Author: Itai Levitan, investingLive.com As I show in my video above, this oil technical analysis for today focuses on the

Trade Wars vs Tech Profits: Why Gold is Overshadowing S&P 500 Traditionally, earnings season makes the S&P 500 the centre of the financial universe. However, as of today, markets are grappling with a rare collision of geopolitical and institutional shocks. Between President Trump’s tariff threats over the Greenland dispute and a Department of Justice (DOJ)

New Zealand inflation edged above target in Q4, reinforcing the RBNZ’s decision to pause further rate cuts. Summary: Q4 CPI rose 0.6%, lifting annual inflation to 3.1% Outcome exceeded market and RBNZ expectations Domestic costs led gains, including power, rents and rates Non-tradeable inflation remained elevated at 3.5% Data supports RBNZ’s signal that easing cycle

Silver has a long history of making incredible moves and this one is certainly on that list. It’s been a one-way parabolic move since $50 in late-November. Before then it was a steady climb higher and was just at $23 of the time of Trump’s second election. The combination of industrial demand, low mining supply

INTC stock has been the best performer on the S&P 500 so far this year. It’s become a market darling after the US government took a 10% stake in the company and ramped up subsidies. The China-style stake backing is suddenly a trading theme but it couldn’t survive Thursday’s earnings report. Shares fell 14% after

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left monetary policy unchanged earlier today in a 8-1 vote. The only dissenter was Takata once again as he proposed raising the policy rate to 1.00% instead. The details from earlier as covered by Eamonn: Bank of Japan leaves short term rate on hold, as expected BOJ holds rates at

Prior 47.0 Services PMI 53.3 vs 52.5 expected Prior 52.7 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.6 expected Prior 51.3 Full report here Key Points: Business activity growth quickens in January, but labour market conditions deteriorate Comment: Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The data

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 44 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 38 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 1 bps (100% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC: 13 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The dollar continues to struggle even in the aftermath of a cooler geopolitical climate as Trump backs down from his Greenland threats. The risk mood is better but the greenback falls further with precious metals surging even

EC Markets has announced the launch of its new flagship campaign, “Hold or Trade”, an innovative storytelling experience designed to connect the worlds of football and trading through real decisions, real emotion, and real human instinct. Inspired by the choices players make on the pitch, and the choices traders make in the markets, Hold or

Prior was 51.8 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.1 Manufacturing PMI 51.0 vs 50.5 expected Prior 50.7 Composite PMI 48.6 vs 50.0 expected Prior 50.0 With a start to the year like this, France is not beating the allegations that it will be the main drag of the euro area for 2026. While political woes are a key issue, the French economy

Headlines: Japanese yen jumps across the board on suspected intervention USD/JPY with a sharp drop lower after crossing the 159.00 mark earlier Japan finance minister Katayama declines to say if they intervened in the FX market BOJ governor Ueda says will place larger focus on inflation in making policy decisions BOJ governor Ueda says will

Prior was -0.2% Retail sales ex-autos vs +1.2% expected Prior ex-autos -0.6% Sales of $70.4 billion in November Core sales +1.6% vs -0.5% prior December advance sales -0.5% The core sales number is a strong one but part of that was the reopening of liquor stores in British Columbia after a strike. One sign of

Sector Overview The stock market presented a mixed bag of performances today, with noteworthy activity across several key sectors. The technology sector stood out with striking contrasts: while Nvidia (NVDA) surged by 1.98% amid high investor interest, Intel (INTC) faced a steep decline of 12.93%, reflecting challenges or unfavorable news impacting the semiconductor space. Notably,

The BOJ held rates steady but highlighted firmer underlying inflation and rising internal debate over the pace of tightening. Summary: BOJ kept policy rate at 0.75% by 8–1 vote Takata dissented, calling for an immediate hike to 1.0% Core-core inflation forecasts revised higher across years Growth outlook upgraded for FY25 and FY26 FX volatility and

Goldman Sachs is arguing this point from the perspective of central bank subordination risks, and notes that the Swiss franc is the “best placed global FX hedge” for that. But the firm also adds in other factors as to why the currency is a solid pick amid the macroeconomic backdrop that is at play currently.

It may not seem like it, but the headline remark is arguably the key takeaway from his press conference so far. I mean, he was not expected to be explicit about taking action to defend the sliding Japanese yen currency. But at the balance, he’s reflecting no urgency to participate in this matter and leaving

China’s central bank signalled sustained policy support into 2026, reinforcing expectations of further easing to stabilise growth. Summary: PBOC confirms moderately loose policy stance for 2026 Further RRR and interest rate cuts remain on the table Policy framework to shift toward expectation-driven indicators Structural tools to support innovation and SMEs Commitment to currency flexibility and

67 of 79 (~85%) of economists said rates would remain unchanged through 2026 All 83 economists expect no change to the deposit rate for the 5 February policy decision The poll numbers sum up very well the market expectations currently towards the ECB. And the ~85% share of opinion of no change in rates for

UK consumer morale improved slightly in January, but confidence in the broader economy remains deeply negative. Summary: UK consumer confidence rose to a five-month high in January Households more positive on personal finances Economic outlook confidence deteriorated further Growth sluggish as inflation and wage trends remain mixed Consumers remain cautious on spending UK consumer confidence

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board again yesterday despite stronger than expected US jobless claims and lack of any other meaningful catalyst. We got a brief rally in the greenback after Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs,

Rising focus on funding flows highlights deeper risks to US fiscal sustainability than headline “sell US” trades suggest. Summary: PBOC adviser flagged risks around US fiscal sustainability UBS says “sell US” narratives miss the real issue Fiscal crises stem from lost funding inflows, not mass selling US more exposed due to reliance on foreign capital

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights will be the release of the Flash PMIs for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. We’ve been seeing a re-acceleration in activity to start the year for other advanced countries like Australia, New Zealand and Japan, which could be the case for everyone as business

Strong Q4 execution was overshadowed by cautious Q1 guidance, tempering the near-term earnings outlook. Summary Q4 EPS and revenue beat expectations, driven by Datacenter & AI and Foundry Gross and operating margins surprised meaningfully to the upside in Q4 Client Computing revenue slightly missed estimates Q1 EPS and revenue guidance fell short of consensus Margin

Seems like the Japanese officials are drawing a line at 159.00 on USD/JPY. That’s also where we got an intensification of verbal intervention last week that helped to ease the pressure on the Japanese Yen. The pair fell from 159.22 to 157.32 in a matter of seconds. Looks like an intervention but some are saying

New research shows Warren Buffett’s success stemmed from investing in quality businesses with strong intangible moats, not from buying cheap stocks. The full article is here, a great read: Warren Buffett Was Never Just a Value Investor. Here’s the Real Secret to His Investing Success Data shows Buffett beat markets by investing in quality, not

The Australian dollar is endorsing a positive view on global growth this year. It’s made a strong move higher against the US dollar today, gaining 83 pips to 0.6843. That’s the best level since October 2024, a month when AUD/USD touched 0.6942 before failing to truly challenge the 70-cent figure. From there it sank as

RBNZ reiterated its 2% inflation goal after CPI rose above target, stressing vigilance while noting spare capacity should help cool pressures. Summary: RBNZ says it remains committed to returning inflation to 2% midpoint Q4 annual CPI accelerated to 3.1%, slightly above the 1%–3% band Governor says core inflation still appears within target range Bank to

Japan’s inflation cooled in December but remained well above target, keeping expectations of further BOJ tightening alive. Summary: Core CPI slowed to 2.4% y/y in December, in line with forecasts Base effects from energy prices drove the deceleration Core-core inflation held firm at 2.9% y/y BOJ expected to keep rates steady at 0.75% Inflation backdrop

Prior 51.4 Manufacturing PMI 51.6 vs 50.6 expected Prior 50.6 Composite PMI 53.9 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.4 Full report here Key Findings: Strongest upturn in UK private sector business activity since April 2024 Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK businesses kicked up a gear in January, showing encouraging

China likely to lower 2026 growth target as global slowdown weighs BOJ holds rates at 0.75%, Lifts core inflation outlook. Dissent highlights inflation risk Bank of Japan leaves short term rate on hold, as expected RBNZ Governor Breman vows to return inflation to 2% after CPI edges above target band Japan says bond market stress

New Zealand inflation data: Analysts expect New Zealand consumer prices to have increased by around 0.5% in the December quarter, leaving annual inflation steady at 3.0%. The quarterly rise is largely attributed to higher petrol prices and seasonal increases in travel and accommodation costs over the holiday period. These pressures were partly offset by a

Bank of Japan (BoJ) on hold, as expected. I’ll post more detail on this separately. … Here we go, the full report is here: BOJ holds rates at 0.75%, Lifts core inflation outlook. Dissent highlights inflation risk – The prospect of an April rate hike has gained. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Prior 52.4 Manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs 49.1 expected Prior 48.8 Composite PMI 51.5 vs 51.8 expected Prior 51.5 The end of last year was filled with optimism on the recovery but the start of the year dealt a bit of a reality check. The contrast between France and Germany again is for all to see.

Japan’s economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weakness Underlying inflation will continue rising moderately Underlying inflation, rate of increase in core inflation likely to increase gradually They will be at a level in line with BOJ price target in the second half of the projection period Easy monetary conditions will continue to support the

The Japanese yen currency just spiked higher across the board after stumbling following BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference. The price movement has similar characteristics to a “rate check” call from the MOF, similar to previous episodes we have seen back in 2024 and 2022. For some context, the last reported “rate check” was back in

May conduct market operations to encourage stability in bond market May do so in response to irregular market moves and exceptional cases Won’t specifically comment on forex levels Forex determined by various factors, not just interest rate gap Weak yen could inflate import costs and be passed on to domestic prices Have to be mindful

Prior -0.1% Retail sales +2.5% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +0.6%; revised to +1.8% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.3% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.2% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +3.1% vs +1.7% y/y expected Prior +1.2% The beat in UK retail sales here comes mainly from a surge in sales from non-store retailers

Japan signalled heightened market vigilance while playing down recent bond market stress. Summary: Japan monitoring markets closely amid ongoing volatility Finance minister says bond market rout has eased Details of proposed sales tax cut not yet decided Ongoing communication with US Treasury officials Authorities stress importance of market dialogue Japan’s government signalled heightened vigilance over

Data only on this post. I’ll post more detail separately. Preview is here from earlier. Non-tradeables +0.6% q/q and +3.5% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China is expected to lower its 2026 growth target, signalling tolerance for slower expansion amid global and domestic headwinds. Summary: China likely to set 2026 growth target at 4.5%–5% 2025 growth met target but relied heavily on exports Global slowdown weighing on future prospects Policymakers shifting focus to “high-quality” growth Domestic demand and investment remain

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” The rate set under 7 today for the first time since May 2023. Previous close 6.9672 PBoC injects 125bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at

US November PCE inflation 2.8% vs 2.7% expected US initial jobless claims 200K vs 210K expected US final Q3 GDP +4.4% vs +4.3% expected Oil: EIA weekly US crude inventories +3602K vs +1131K expected Earnings Preview: Intel and Alcoa headline a heavy Thursday after-hours slate ECB in no rush to shift monetary policy stance, accounts

Australia’s flash PMIs point to a strong start to 2026, with growth accelerating while price pressures ease. Summary: Composite PMI surged to a joint-highest level since April 2022 Manufacturing and services both recorded faster growth Export demand strengthened, led by manufactured goods Input and output price inflation eased further Business optimism dipped despite strong activity

US House Speaker Johnson said Republicans remain divided over whether tariff revenues should be used to fund $2,000 payments to households. Such payments tend to act as stimulus and give stocks a boost. Heads up, that expected boost is unlikely now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EU signalled progress on a Ukraine recovery framework while flagging greater Arctic security investment and readiness for potential trade tensions. Summary: EU close to unified prosperity framework with US and Ukraine Deal aims to coordinate funding for Ukraine’s recovery Europe to step up focus on Arctic security and cooperation Defence spending surge to support

Data only on this post. I’ll post more detail separately. Preview is here from earlier. more to come Still ahead, BoJ: BOJ signals readiness for more rate hikes as yen weakness fuels inflation risks BoJ preview: Will the central bank intervene in the bond market and sink the yen? This article was written by Eamonn

The S&P 500 already closed the gap but with earnings, you know… you never know. It’s always a tricky event with risk, everyone’s got an opinion, especially us with ourself, and everyone’s got good explanations about why it should go up. Or why it would go down. Then when the report is out, it gets

TikTok secured its US future by restructuring ownership and control to satisfy national security concerns. Summary: TikTok creates new US venture to avoid nationwide ban Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX to manage the US entity Deal resolves years of national security scrutiny Follows 2024 US law mandating divestment or ban Removes major uncertainty over TikTok’s

Before we get on with explaining the fixing, check this out: ICYMI – PBOC Governor signals further rate and RRR cuts as China keeps loose policy stance — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one

The Thursday after-hours calendar has a few notable names across semiconductors, financials, and industrials. While the earlier sessions this week gave us a taste of the bank earnings, tonight we get a look at credit card spending, the industrial economy via rails, and the latest chapter in the Intel saga. Here is what’s on the

Gold sold off after the de-escalation over Greenland but bidders were waiting in the wings and waiting at $4772, which was the session low. We’re now more than $100 above that level and threatening $4900 for the first time. Similarly, silver touched $96 for the first time, rising 3% on the day. The $5000 level

TD Cowen is out with a bullish report on the metals complex, arguing the macroeconomic setup for the next several years is the strongest in years. The core thesis rests on chronic underinvestment colliding with supply deficits, creating a particularly favorable environment for copper and uranium. The supply side of the copper equation is tightening

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is preparing for an IPO, according to the Financial Times. The report says the company has lined up Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley for the IPO, which could be the largest in history. Shares have recently been sold at an $800 billion valuation. It’s unclear what portion of

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar recovered a little yesterday as Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. Moreover, we got Fed’s Cook hearing yesterday and the Supreme Court appeared likely to deny Trump’s request to immediately fire her. Barring another geopolitical

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75%. The central bank will also release its Outlook Report, which is expected to show an upgrade to growth given the expansionary fiscal policy and potentially a slightly upward revision to inflation. The focus will be on Governor Ueda’s forward guidance, but

Highlights of Today’s Market Performance The US stock market is abuzz as technology and communication services sectors dominate the trading landscape, signaling a robust market sentiment. Investors are eyeing opportunities as semiconductor giants and communication services anchor the day’s gains. 📈 Technology and Communication in the Green Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is experiencing a notable

Prior was +3391K Gasoline +5977K vs +1705K exp Distillates +3349K vs -162K exp Refinery utilization -2.0% Oil is at the lows of the day following this report, with WTI crude oil down $1.30 to $59.31. Private inventories late yesterday: Crude: +3.04 million Gasoline: +6.2 million Distillates: -33,000 There have been a number of large builds

National Bank points out a glaring inconsistency in this week’s Canadian inflation report: Every component rose less than the headline. How can the sum be more than the parts? They explain that it’s a quirk from the way Statistics Canada seasonally adjusts the data but that it argues inflation is near-flat rather than above target.

Headlines: Gold’s record rally comes to a halt as Trump folds on tariffs. Signs of weakness emerge. European indices rebound after Trump walks back on Greenland threats The Australian Dollar surges on a blockbuster jobs report as rate hike bets increase Trump’s Board of Peace is now formally established The TACO shells are on the

Stock futures are ripping higher and at the session highs after this post from Trump: Based upon a very productive meeting that I have had with the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region. This solution,

In the fast-paced world of investing, the temptation to chase quick gains or flee sudden losses often leads traders to overreact. Yet, evidence from markets shows that the most effective approach is frequently the simplest: holding quality assets over the long term. This strategy isn’t about being lazy or inaction—it’s about disciplined patience. As a

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlights include the emergency EU leaders summit and Trump signing the Gaza peace charter in Davos. The EU leaders emergency summit was planned before Trump defused the tariffs bomb yesterday, so that shouldn’t result in anything of note. We also have Trump leading the signing of the

New Zealand electronic retail card spending data covers about 68% of core retail sales in the country. It’s the main measure of monthly retail activity. NZD/USD is barely changed on the data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ray Dalio on Money: Why “The Value of Money” Could Matter More Than Tech Stocks, and Why Japan’s Bond Vigilantes Just Woke Traders Up Ray Dalio was interviewd on Bloomberg today (see also another good interview at the bottom of this page) that I would like to reak down for our new investors and traders

Japan’s bond market is testing the credibility of fiscal policy as election-driven tax promises collide with rising yields. Reuters have a good piece up I’ve summarised here. In brief: Takaichi’s food tax pledge has shaken Japan’s bond market Investors fear erosion of long-standing fiscal discipline JGB yields surged to multi-decade highs Debt servicing and ageing

A senior China central bank adviser warned that the rising US debt burden looks unsustainable, as concerns mount over America’s fiscal outlook. Summary: SCMP reports China adviser flags US debt concerns Huang Yiping questions sustainability of US debt path Fiscal discipline seen as unlikely near term Jason Furman echoes deficit worries US debt hits US$38.4

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 mark. As Trump drops TACO shells all over the floor, the dollar bounced back a little after a retreat from earlier in the week. That put EUR/USD back under the figure

Prior was +2.8% y/y Core PCE 2.8% vs 2.8% expected Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% exp Unrounded core PCE +0.160% was vs +0.274% m/m prior Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected Unrounded +0.207% vs +0.238% m/m prior Consumer spending and income for November : Personal income +0.3% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.6% Personal spending

President Donald Trump used his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos to deliver a message markets were primed to hear: de-escalation geopolitically, and acceleration economically. On Greenland, he was firm on strategic necessity but explicit in ruling out the use of force, which helped strip out immediate geopolitical tail risk while keeping negotiations

Prior was 198K (revised to 199K) Continuing claims 1849K vs 1900K expected Prior 1884K (revised to 1875K) This is another stronger than expected report. The US jobless claims have been pointing to a “low hire, low fire” labour market in 2025 as initial claims remained stable, while continuing claims reached new cycle highs. More recently,

The Board of Peace is one that is described as an “international organisation” meant to promote stability, peace, and governance of “areas affected or threatened by conflict”. The idea first came about as part of Trump’s second phase in having brokered the ceasefire plan in Gaza during September last year. Obviously, Trump will serve as

Second reading was 4.3% The final Q2 reading was 3.8% Consumer spending final 3.5% vs 2.5% prior Q3 corporate profits after tax +4.7% GDP final sales +4.5% vs +4.6% expected Inflation metrics GDP deflator vs 3.8% expected Core PCE final vs 2.9% expected PCE prices final vs 2.8% expected Real GDP for the third quarter

The key details and excerpts to note from the accounts: Members broadly agreed with the assessment on the economy That being indicators of underlying inflation had changed little over recent months And for now, they remain consistent with the 2% medium-term target The euro area economy had been resilient alongside global economic activity Geopolitical risks

Despite renewed trade tensions with the U.S. following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, China posted a record trade surplus in 2025: exports rose to $3.77 trillion (+5.5% year on year), while imports remained stable at $2.58 trillion, resulting in a positive trade balance of $1.19 trillion, the highest ever recorded. But how is this

Video: Gold technical analysis on the 4-hour chart Gold prices saw heightened volatility following Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, with risk sentiment briefly shifting toward risk-on after Trump explicitly ruled out the use of military force in the Greenland discussion. This article is a follow-up to our previous gold technical

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold came under some pressure yesterday as Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. Moreover, we got Fed’s Cook hearing yesterday and the Supreme Court appeared likely to deny Trump’s request to immediately fire her. These catalysts removed two of

Goldman lifted its end-2026 gold target to $5,400/oz, from $4,900, arguing private allocations are building and central banks will keep adding to reserves. Summary: Goldman raises Dec 2026 gold forecast to $5,400/oz Bank cites stronger private investor diversification Central-bank buying seen averaging 60 tonnes in 2026 EM reserve diversification viewed as structural Call implies stronger

Bridgewater said Chinese equities remain attractive after a strong rally helped its onshore fund deliver its best performance in at least five years. Summary: Bridgewater remains constructive on China equities Onshore fund gains about 45% in 2025 Performance far outpaces CSI 300 Policy support and sentiment key drivers Modest increase in China exposure planned Bridgewater

It’s all looking fine and dandy with the TACO shells all over the floor. Trump walked back on his threats on Greenland as well as tariffs, allowing for the market mood to be lifted after the European close yesterday. Wall Street rebounded strongly and we’re seeing major indices in Europe stick with that at the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 rallied hard yesterday as Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. This is the classic TACO trade we’ve been all waiting for. Now that this risk is out of the way, and barring new geopolitical escalations, we

The greenback has had a tough two weeks as Trump is back with a bang to start the new year with all his shenanigans. Erratic geopolitical risk management and attack on the Fed independence are two main issues that have hurt the dollar in the past week especially. And HSBC notes that this could just

Japan’s Nikkei is rebounding as JGBs extend gains and global risk sentiment improved after Trump softened tariff and Greenland rhetoric. Summary: Nikkei rebounds after five straight declines Topix also higher as sentiment improves JGB rally extends after super-long rout Fiscal jitters remain ahead of election Trump comments ease tariff risks Japan’s equity market looked set

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar recovered a little yesterday as Trump announced that he reached a “framework” of a deal for Greenland and that he won’t go ahead with tariffs. Moreover, we got Fed’s Cook hearing yesterday and the Supreme Court appeared likely to deny Trump’s request to immediately fire her. Barring another geopolitical

A theoretical estimate of jet-engine power capacity has revived interest in the US aircraft “Boneyard,” though real-world hurdles remain formidable. Summary: Retired US military aircraft engines flagged as power source Theoretical capacity estimated near 40,000 MW Turbofan engines offer most potential Conversion costs and logistics remain prohibitive Concept highlights data-centre power constraints The vast “Boneyard”

Both exports and imports solid in the month, although exports did miss expectations. Exports to: EU +2.6% y/y Asia +10.2% y/y US -11.1% y/y China +5.6% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs argues that the Japanese yen currency will continue to stay weak amid the latest economic and political developments domestically. The snap election called by Japan prime minister Takaichi is one key driver dragging down the currency, as she looks odds on to consolidate power to pursue her fiscal expansion further. The focus on

With all the headlines centering around Greenland, it’s easy to overlook this bit involving the US Supreme Court yesterday. The court justices were involved in hearing arguments over US president Trump’s efforts to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. And some of the comments made were worth taking note of. To provide some backdrop, solicitor general

PBOC adviser publicly questions sustainability of US fiscal trajectory Goldman raises gold forecast to $5,400 (up $500) as private and central-bank demand builds Nikkei set to snap long losing streak as JGBs rally and tariff fears ease Here we go again … WSJ: US seeks Cuba regime change after Venezuela precedent China silver exports hit

VT Markets today announced the release of its 2026 Global Market Outlook, titled “Steady Growth, Balanced Inflation: Navigating a Regime of Structural Opportunity.” The report delivers a forward-looking, multi-asset assessment of the trends and opportunities expected to shape global markets in 2026, drawing on in-depth analysis across equities, foreign exchange, crypto assets, and commodities. As

A sharp rebound in Australian employment sent the jobless rate lower and pushed markets to price a growing chance of an RBA hike as soon as February. Data post earlier: Australian December 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.3%) Summary: December jobs surge far exceeds expectations Full-time employment drives rebound Unemployment rate drops to

Japan’s exports extended their recent run in December, but a sharp fall in US-bound shipments and stronger imports narrowed the trade surplus. The data is here: Japan data: December trade surplus smaller than expected (import jump, export growth slow) Adding more now. Summary: Japan exports rise for fourth straight month December growth misses forecasts at

South Korea’s economy unexpectedly shrank in Q4 as weak investment and exports overwhelmed modest gains in consumption. Summary: South Korea GDP contracts 0.3% q/q in Q4 Biggest quarterly contraction since late 2022 Investment and exports drag heavily on growth Consumption offers only modest support Full-year growth slows to 1.0% in 2025 South Korea’s economy unexpectedly

A jarring comment from NATO secretary general, Mark Rutte, is doing the rounds this morning where it is said he did not discuss with Trump on whether Greenland would remain part of Denmark under a newly announced framework for a future deal. In other words, there was no proposal of the sovereignty of Greenland in

The Trump administration is quietly pressing for regime change in Cuba, betting economic fragility and internal pressure can succeed where decades of US coercion failed. Summary: WSJ reports US seeking Cuba regime change by year-end Strategy follows Venezuela leadership removal Focus on economic pressure and internal defections Oil supply and medical missions targeted Transition risks

Posting this very solid jobs data, I’ll be back with more on this separately. More: Australia jobs surge in December, lifting AUD and RBA rate hike expectations For background, preview is here: Economic and event calendar in Asia: Australian jobs report, unemployment expected to rise From a now unemployed graphic artiste 😉 This article was

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” Previous close 6.9640 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The indications from the Supreme Court today were that Fed Governor Lisa Cook will stay in her job, at least until the case can be fully decided at some point by July. And it’s increasing looking like she will be able to stay on the job for her full 14-year term, which runs until 2038,

Trump cancels the Greenland tariffs: Says they have the framework of a future deal Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker climbs to 5.4% from 5.3% but there are skeptics More signs of the K-shaped economy, this time from United Airlines US December pending home sales -9.3% vs +0.4% expected Trump in Davos: No nation can secure Greenland

Australia’s December labour force report is expected to show a rebound in employment after a surprisingly weak November, but the broader picture remains one of a labour market that is gradually cooling rather than sharply deteriorating. Economists at Westpac note that employment fell by 21.3k in November, extending a run of softer outcomes in recent

China’s silver exports hit a 16-year high in 2025, casting doubt on fears that tighter export controls are constraining global supply. Summary: China silver exports reach 16-year high Volumes rise despite export-control fears No major disruption reported by exporters Processing trade rules underpin shipments Refining capacity expansion key driver China’s silver exports climbed to a

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The IEA lifted its oil demand outlook but warned supply growth continues to overwhelm consumption, keeping surplus risks firmly in place. Summary: IEA raises 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 930k bpd Supply growth still far exceeds demand at 2.5mbpd December output fell, but surplus remains intact Refinery maintenance risks renewed oversupply in 1Q Inventories

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.7 mn barrels Distillates -0.15 mn bbls Gasoline +2.5 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two

Shares of United Airlines are up 1.8% today after earnings. UAL stock of off the record high set earlier this month by about 8% but airlines continue to offer an interesting window into the real economy. Similar to Delta Airlines (who reported last week), virtually all the growth was in the premium end of the

Air Force 1 has had to return to the US soon after leaving due to a fault Risk-off Tuesday hit US assets, raising Trump Davos de-escalation probability (TACO, yum!) South Korea warns US chip tariffs would push up prices for US consumers (d’uh) PBOC sets firm yuan fix to slow gains despite weak dollar (leans

Proprietary AI Systems Outperform Major Hedge Funds with Superior Risk-Adjusted Returns. Vertus, a frontier artificial intelligence company, today announced two major milestones demonstrating the advancement of machine reasoning in financial markets: surpassing $1 billion in daily AI-driven transactions and delivering 51.15% returns for 2025 with a Sharpe ratio of 2.13-figures independently audited by Alpha Performance

The curtain is coming up on new world order The US is behaving very strangely for an ally European countries would be much stronger if they scrapped non-tariff trade barriers We can do better on growth, productivity and debt Eurozone inflation is under control Tariffs would cause a very small upward inflation effect The German

The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker is out and it’s up to 5.4% annualized in the fourth quarter from 5.3% previously. It’s a tough quarter to track because so much of the data has been screwed up by the long US government shutdown. Today’s construction spending numbers along with some recent data has been led

We are ‘very much into’ nuclear energy We will double domestic steel production over the next four months Venezuela will do fantastically well I want Europe to do great, I want the UK to do great Europe needs to get out of the culture war Energy, trade and immigration They had no idea what happened

Trump has officially arrived in Zurich now and is headed to Davos next for the World Economic Forum (WEF). As a reminder, his special address is still scheduled for 1330 GMT. So, it won’t be long now and media opportunities will have to be brief if Trump is to stick with the agenda today. As

Trump made the trip to Davos and spoke for nearly and hour-and-a-half and it was the usual song and dance. It was more of a campaign speech for a domestic audience than focused on the global order. It was all comments you’ve heard before with the usual “the likes of which you’ve never seen.” He

What to watch in this Trump speech at Davos Live Now Live updates – key remarks and market context “Our fourth quarter growth is projected to be 5.4%, far greater than anybody other than myself and a few others had predicted.” What he said Trump opens by framing US economic growth as significantly stronger than

Prior was +6.1% Prices m/m -0.6% vs +0.3% expected Prior m/m +0.9% Raw materials price index: Prices y/y +6.4% vs +6.4% prior Prices m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% prior This is a nice dip and adds to the Canadian inflation mystery. Earlier this week, December Canadian CPI ran hot on the headline but the core number

Today marks a fascinating day in the US stock market, with diverging fortunes across various sectors. While energy stocks are riding high on the crest of a wave, the tech sector isn’t having its best day, showing a mixture of gains and losses. 📈 Energy Sector: On the upswing Energy stocks, led by giants like

Pending home sales Pending home sales -9.3% vs +0.4% expected The index 71.8 vs 79.2 prior US October construction spending +0.5% vs +0.1% expected Prior was +0.2% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

South Korea signalled tolerance for FX volatility, saying the won should strengthen toward 1,400 as authorities work to stabilise markets. Summary: South Korea says it lacks immediate FX stabilisation tools. Lee stresses FX markets are driven by supply and demand. Won moves broadly aligned with yen, but has weakened less. Authorities see the won strengthening

US is the premier destination for global capital US trade deficit is narrowing with an unprecedented pace Free trade should be fair trade, rebalancing must continue Frustrated with the Fed for refusing to do an internal investigation Asking European allies to understand that Greenland needs to be part of the US “Why don’t European countries

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar has been weakening across the board in this first part of the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. The main narrative for the greenback’s weakness is once again de-dollarisation due to the messy and aggressive US policies. The squeeze on recent dollar longs might be more about positioning though.

Netflix beat Q4 estimates but warned higher content spend and acquisition costs will weigh on margins before growth re-accelerates. Summary: Q4 earnings and revenue modestly beat expectations, with strong free cash flow. Q1 operating income and margin guidance missed consensus. Netflix plans a 10% increase in 2026 content spending, pressuring margins. Warner deal adds $275m

Berkshire Hathaway may exit Kraft Heinz after a decade, signalling the end of a high-profile but underperforming investment. Summary: Berkshire may sell its entire 27.5% stake in Kraft Heinz. Kraft Heinz filed a prospectus enabling a potential resale. Shares fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading. Berkshire has written down the investment twice since 2019. A

Tomoko Yoshino is the chair of Japan’s largest trade union group, Rengo, and she’s offering up some remarks on the situation ahead of the spring wage negotiations this year. Much like Takaichi, she is also the first female chief in the organisation’s history. For some context, Rengo’s estimated wage hikes are typically a bellwether for

Headlines: Heads up: US president Trump due to speak in Davos later today US stocks extend losses as traders stay on the defensive ahead of Trump’s speech in Davos US futures pare slight gains awaiting Trump address in Davos Bessent says not concerned at all about any Treasuries selloff over Greenland ECB’s President Lagarde: The

The major US stock indices are hitting new lows in the European session as risk aversion continues to dominate the price action. As a reminder, the global risk sentiment was hit at the beginning of the trading week following Trump’s escalation over the weekend where he threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1

The monthly order book balance rose to -30 in January, which marks a slight improvement from the -32 estimate in December. That’s the best reading since September but it still points to extended weakness in the industrial sector. For some context, the index remains well below its long-run average of -14. The only bright side

A violent JGB sell-off driven by election-linked fiscal fears jolted global rates before a tentative Wednesday rebound eased worst-case worries. Summary: Japan’s long-end yields surged Tuesday as snap-election fiscal plans spooked markets. The 40-year yield broke above 4%, tightening global financial conditions via spillovers. S&P warned tax cuts risk a lasting hit to revenues and

Negative inflation prints are well possible this year A few months of negative inflation wouldn’t be a problem The SNB left everything unchanged at the last policy decision and sounded a bit more positive on the future outlook given the lower US tariff rate. SNB’s members continue to repeat that the bar for going back

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at around the 158.00 and 158.50 levels. The pair continues to seem to be content to weave in and out around the 158.00 mark, that as traders continue to flirt with further upside potential

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Markets are waiting with bated breath for his special address at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos later today. He was supposed to have arrived already for the event but encountered a delay after Air Force One had a “minor electrical issue”. From earlier: Air Force One has had to return to the US

No tariff decision from the US Supreme Court today. It could be a long wait now Trump press conference as it happens: Playing the greatest hits so far Mark Carney lays bare the rupture in the world order, says it will mean a poorer world Markets: Gold up $80 to $4749 US 10-year yields up

China is lining up a five-year consumption drive, pairing near-term loan subsidies and credit guarantees with a strategic shift toward services-led demand growth. Summary: China plans new 2026–30 policies to lift consumption and address supply-demand imbalances. Officials highlight strong supply but weak demand as a “prominent” issue. Finance ministry extends interest subsidies for consumption and

Amid the geopolitical risks and negative risk mood, the Swiss franc is one of the better performers in the major currencies space this week. The flows are also helped by the fact that the US dollar and Japanese yen have their own set of problems of course. The former is dealing with outflows amid more

Prior +3.2% Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.3% y/y expected Prior +3.2% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Guggenheim sees positive but lower US asset returns in 2026 as heavier supply and weaker foreign inflows weigh on bonds, equities and the dollar. Info via a Reuters interview. Summary: Guggenheim expects softer returns across US assets in 2026. Rising credit issuance may widen US bond spreads modestly. Higher rates allow opportunistic borrowing, boosting supply.

New Zealand has pencilled in 7 November 2026 for the election, extending the campaign runway while the formal legal timetable remains much shorter. Summary: Luxon set New Zealand’s election for Saturday, 7 November 2026. The long lead time reflects early announcement convention, not a long legal notice period. Formal election machinery begins later; writ must

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar has been weakening across the board in the first half of the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. The main narrative for the greenback’s weakness is once again de-dollarisation due to the messy and aggressive US policies. The squeeze on recent dollar longs might be more about positioning though.

Barclays sees Greenland-related geopolitical risks as a bigger long-term threat to the euro than the dollar despite near-term USD weakness. Summary: The dollar weakened as Greenland tensions and tariff threats escalated. Barclays warns euro faces greater risk in a severe US–EU fallout. NATO cohesion and European defence spending are key concerns. Export-heavy economies like Germany

Japan’s DPP called for decisive steps to calm bond and FX markets, warning ultra-long yield volatility risks destabilising broader financial conditions. Summary: DPP says market volatility has become “somewhat abnormal.” Tamaki urges decisive government and BOJ action. Proposals include bond buybacks and reduced 40-year JGB issuance. FX intervention should not be ruled out if yen

Administration officials handed out a packet to the press at the event on “365 Wins in 365 Days”. This has started out with the usual greatest hits Sleepy Joe Biden Greatest stock market in the world Stolen election We could have 20% GDP growth Hottest country in the world He went on a long rant

In case you missed out on this, it’s not just all about Trump and his shenanigans this week: Japan bond yields continue to surge higher on the week This is the scariest chart I’ve seen in years JGB sell-off jars global rates as election fiscal fears flare, but some respite today Japan opposition urges bond

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight was the UK CPI report. The data was mixed with headline inflation beating expectations, while core inflation missed forecasts. Nonetheless, it was skewed slightly more to the upside as both goods and services inflation ticked higher. Overall, it won’t change anything for the BoE at this

A policy-driven “sell America” shock hit stocks, the dollar and volatility gauges on Tuesday, increasing the odds Trump softens his stance in coming days to calm markets. Summary: US stocks suffered their worst session since October, pushing key indexes negative for 2026. VIX spiked toward 21 as investors scrambled for protection. Dollar weakened and gold

China’s central bank leaned against yuan strength with a firm fix, signalling a desire to slow appreciation rather than block it outright. Summary: PBOC set the daily yuan fix at 7.0014 per dollar. Reuters model estimate stood at 6.9578, a large gap. Fix signals resistance to rapid yuan appreciation. Authorities appear focused on pace management,

South Korea’s president warned that US chip tariffs would mainly drive up American prices, as Asia’s semiconductor dominance limits Washington’s leverage. Summary: Lee says US chip tariffs would raise US prices, not hurt Asian producers. Proposed duties could reach 100% without new US manufacturing commitments. Korea and Taiwan dominate global chip supply, limiting tariff effectiveness.

From earlier: Air Force 1 has had to return to the US soon after leaving due to a fault Plane issues and air safety incidents involving the US president is quite rare. And the White House is chalking this one up to a “minor electrical issue”. That caused Air Force One to turn back with

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” Previous close 6.9598 PBoC injects 363.5b yuan through 7-day reverse repos at 1.40% net injects net 122.7b yuan Earlier: PBOC expected to set USD/CNY reference

The aircraft (AF1) carrying President Trump to the World Economic Forum in Davos changed course sharply off the East Coast and is tracking back toward Joint Base Andrews. White House says minor electrical fault. White House said “minor electrical issue”. Trump will board a different aircraft and continue on to Switzerland. Another u-turn coming in

Goldman expects global equities to post solid but slower gains in 2026, led by earnings growth and a broadening market rally. This is from earlier in January, posting ICYMI (like I did!). Summary: Goldman forecasts 11% global equity returns over the next 12 months. Gains are expected to be earnings-driven rather than valuation-led. Global growth

The US plans modest but symbolic cuts to NATO command staffing, fuelling fresh unease in Europe over Washington’s strategic priorities. Washington Post had the info. Summary: US plans to cut around 200 positions from NATO command and intelligence bodies. Intelligence, special operations and maritime centres are among those affected. Reductions will mainly occur through attrition

Wells Fargo sees limited global easing, with early Fed cuts driving near-term USD weakness before a second-half rebound. Summary: Wells Fargo expects two Fed rate cuts in March and June. Fed funds seen settling at 3.00%–3.25% before an extended hold. USD weakness expected early 2026, followed by H2 recovery. EM currencies likely to underperform during

Well, this is what you call an empty data calendar, nothing listed from APac at all. That API data listed will not be released until 24 hours later given the US holiday on Monday. The Bloomberg calendar does list minor items, unlikely to shift around markets much: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Shares of Nvidia are down 3.8% as the Nasdaq falls to the lows of the day. The index is down nearly 2% as some of its largest members come under pressure: AVGO -5.1% AMZN -3.3% TSLA -3.0% META -2.3% GOOG -1.7% Some of the selling is in anticipation of Trump’s press conference today. It’s running

At the top of the hour (1 pm ET), US President Trump is set to join Karoline Leavitt at the podium for the White House press conference. These things rarely run on time so standby for a bit. The S&P 500 is at the lows of the day, down 1.6%, or 109 points, to 6831.

It’s a light data agenda for the session here in Asia-Pacific on Tuesday, January 20, 2026. Kicking it off is the services PMI from New Zealand, the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for December 2025. Last week we had the December manufacturing PMI (BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index): New Zealand December 2025 Manufacturing PMI 56.1

Former Bank of England/Bank of Canada Governor and now Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney laid bare his view of the breakdown in the global order at Davos today. The comments are intense, if not frightening. “It seems that every day, we’re remind that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules

It’s been a rough start to the year for natural gas as prices have fallen back to October levels but help is on the way with a cold forecast for the eastern USA. That has February natural gas up 15% today, through only to a one-week high. The strong start to the gas withdrawal season

Sector Overview: Gainers and Losers The stock market painted a predominantly red picture today, with technology and consumer cyclical sectors bearing the brunt of investor skittishness. Notably, semiconductors were hit hard, showcasing widespread declines which highlight concerns about future demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions. 📉 Technology Sector: Heavy hitters like Microsoft (MSFT) plummeted by

Precious metals are not the only thing that is melting up this week. Global bonds yields are also surging higher but the standout is the Japan government bond (JGB) market once more. Yields in Japan are soaring today after prime minister Takaichi confirmed a snap election for 8 February, with the lower house of parliament

KEY POINTS: Gold reached new record highs following Trump’s escalation over Greenland Main bullish trend remains supported amid geopolitical tensions and Fed’s dovish reaction function Downside risks include Trump’s de-escalation, US Supreme Court decision on tariffs and hot US data FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended the gains into new all-time highs today as the recent Trump’s

Bitcoin CME futures are having a clearly bearish session, down close to 5% on the day, and the broader structure shows a market that has shifted from “rally continuation” into “value repair.” In plain English: after strong upside days earlier this month, the market stopped rewarding buyers, rolled over, and is now spending time building

BoE Governor Bailey warns that the loss of Fed independence risks spillover effects The S&P 500 falls to new lows as risk aversion dominates: Will we get another TACO trade? The Swiss Franc surges on risk-off flows as US Dollar longs get squeezed. What’s next? Japan bond yields continue to surge higher on the week

Beijing is signalling tougher oversight of price wars and fresh support for consolidation as it reshapes industrial competition. Summary: NDRC vows crackdown on “disorderly” low-price competition Focus on curbing industrial “involution” and price wars Authorities want competition based on quality and branding China studying a national-level M&A fund Aim is to accelerate innovation and industrial

Bloomberg reports that the Danish pension fund AkademikerPension will unload its $100 million position in US Treasuries by the end of the month. The fund managers about $25 billion in savings for teachers and the fund manager cited Trump’s attempt to take over Greenland as one of the reasons to drop the holdings but also

What Trump is threatening on Greenland is very different than the other trade deals The worst thing other countries can do is to escalate trade tensions against the US We’ll see a strong economy this year US to have real GDP growth of around 4% to 5% Fed chair announcement could be as early as

The market is voting that Trump has misplayed his hand on Greenland. Opposition is lining up in a strong way, including in the United States. It’s not clear if there is any plan here but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told everyone to calm down and that’s being taken as a sign that Trump might not

The waiting game continues as the US Supreme Court released two decisions today but neither were on tariffs. This means it could be until at least Feb 20 before we get a decision. For the legal fans out there, here is an LLM-generated review of the two decisions today. Berk v. Choy The Court held

German producer prices saw an average annual decline of 1.2% in 2025, once again exhibiting a decline for a second year running. However, there is a caveat to that figure with it being a case largely owing to a steep decline in energy prices. Of note, energy prices showed a drop of 6.2% compared to

New Zealand’s services sector has emerged from a prolonged slump, adding to signs that domestic growth momentum is rebuilding into 2026. Summary: Services sector expanded for the first time since February 2024 PSI rose to 51.5, a 4.3-point lift from November New orders and activity drove the improvement Employment remained in mild contraction Combined with

It’s another Decision Day at the US Supreme Court. The first two this year have seen the Supreme Court rule on things that weren’t tariffs but today is another opportunity for them to decide if tariffs are illegal without Congressional approval. If that’s the case, they will also have to decide on whether or not

Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez plans to boost mining (gold and iron ore specifically) output and attract foreign metals investment to help earn foreign exchange. She is also promoting broader resource-sector reforms amid U.S. pressure following the dramatic political shift. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Boris Vujcic selected as ECB Vice President Canada December CPI 2.4% y/y vs 2.2% expected Deutsche Bank sees US dollar risks around the Greenland noise Markets: Gold up $75 to $4669 Silver up 5% to $94.68 Bitcoin down 2.3% S&P 500 futures down 0.9% NZD leads, JPY lags It was a holiday in the USA

Here is what I wrote at the start of the year: The number one risk I see in the foreign exchange market in 2026 is Japan. The yen has been struggling for the past six months and it’s close to a boiling point in Tokyo. There were some stronger warnings about FX intervention late in

China’s steady LPR decision underscores a cautious, targeted easing approach as policymakers weigh domestic weakness against financial stability. Summary: China left LPRs unchanged for an eighth month One-year LPR at 3.00%, five-year at 3.50% Move aligns fully with market expectations Policy focus remains on targeted easing tools Broader rate cuts seen later in Q1–Q2 China

Threat to the Federal Reserve risks spillover effects There is a very substantial scope for spillover Fed Chair Powell is a friend of mine and a man of the utmost intergrity Don’t see the same threats to the BoE So far, we have seen more hedging of Dollar positions rather than investors saying they don’t

Citi flags risk of three BOJ hikes if yen stays weak. Citi puts USD/JPY at the centre of the BOJ reaction function, with 160+ the level that could drag rate hikes forward. Summary: Citi’s Hoshino sees risk of three BOJ hikes if yen stays weak USD/JPY > 160 could bring an April move to 1%

Rising bond yields and fresh trade tensions are cited as dragging Japanese equities lower as investors brace for election-driven volatility. Summary: Nikkei fell for a fourth straight session Bond yields jumped to record highs on fiscal concerns Snap election call unsettled markets Trump tariff threats hit global sentiment Election outcome seen as key catalyst Japanese

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. It’s not one that ties to any technical significance, so the impact of the expiries may be more limited. The dollar remains weak overall amid the whole Greenland situation, with

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 futures opened lower yesterday following Trump’s escalation over Greenland over the weekend. As a reminder, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise

China’s rapid US soybean buying meets a near-term trade goal, but future demand hinges on price, politics and Brazilian supply. Summary: China bought about 12m tonnes of US soybeans in three months Purchases met a key trade pledge made in November Buying largely by state firms for strategic reserves Tariff cuts and eased restrictions enabled

BOJ signals readiness for more rate hikes as yen weakness fuels inflation risks Citi downgrades European stocks on Greenland tariff tension China meets trade pledge with surge in US soybean purchases, but keeps Brazil option open China moves to curb price wars (“involution” again), weighs national M&A fund Morgan Stanley: Trump tariff threat poses limited

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar has been weakening across the board in this first part of the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. As a reminder, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted

Gold Technical Analysis: Gold Futures Today Test Record Levels as Momentum Stretches Date: August 20, 2026Asset: Gold Futures (GC1!)Market: COMEXAnalyst: Itai Levitan, InvestingLive.com, see my gold futures technical analysis video, for today and this week, below: This gold technical analysis focuses on a critical moment for gold futures today, as prices surge +2.84% to trade

Citi cuts Europe to neutral as Greenland-linked tariff risks cloud the outlook, while Japan emerges as the regional preference. Summary: Citi downgrades European equities to neutral Decision driven by US–EU tension over Greenland Tariff uncertainty weighs on earnings outlook EU considers retaliation on $108bn of US goods Japanese stocks upgraded to overweight Citigroup has downgraded

Prior 5.1% Employment change 82k vs 30k expected Prior -16k Average weekly earnings +4.7% vs +4.6% 3m/y expected Prior +4.7%; revised to +4.8% Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.5% vs +4.5% 3m/y expected Prior +4.6% December payrolls change -43k Prior -38k; revised to -33k As a general reminder, the UK labour market report is still

Cryptocurrency payments have long been discussed as an alternative to traditional financial systems, but their adoption in everyday B2B operations remains limited. While many businesses experiment with accepting crypto for single transactions, structured use cases such as invoicing, subscriptions, and recurring billing have proven far more difficult to implement. Finunion aims to address this gap

The chaotic and erratic policy setting nature of the US administration continues to bite at the dollar to start the year. After a bit of a better showing in the early stages in 2026, the dollar is now trading down to fresh two-week lows. So much for a change in avenue, eh? As Trump steps

Putin has been invited to join ‘Board of Peace’ I will impose a 200% tariff on French wines and champagne; Macron will join ‘Board of Peace’ I know who I want to be the Fed chair For some context, this whole ‘Board of Peace’ thing is something that Trump is trying to create as part

Up, up, and away! Gold bulls really couldn’t wish for a better start to the new year. And it’s all thanks to one man. The first week was filled with geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela. The next was an attack on Fed independence and added geopolitical risks with Iran. This week, it’s a combo of geopolitical

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data came mostly in line with expectations, so the reaction was muted. Looking ahead, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the German ZEW index. It’s expected to improve to 50.0 vs 45.8 prior but it’s not going

PBOC set 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.5% 3.5% expected, 3.5% prior 1-year LPR 3.0% 3.0% expected, 3.0 prior The eighth consecutive month without a change. More info here. Coming up soon: PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9576 – Reuters estimate This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The BOJ looks set to keep rates steady for now while signalling a tightening bias as yen weakness and fiscal uncertainty lift inflation risks. Reuters preview summarised. Summary: BOJ expected to hold policy rate at 0.75% Growth outlook for fiscal 2026 likely revised higher Yen weakness and wage gains keep inflation risks alive Snap election

Coming up from China today is the monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting. Which used to be a subject of mareket focus, but not so much any more. Preview and why here: Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, January 20, 2026: China interest rate setting — The People’s Bank of China is due to

Morgan Stanley argues Trump’s Greenland tariff threat is a stock-specific risk, not a systemic shock for European equities. Summary: Morgan Stanley sees tariff impact as concentrated, not broad Only 2.2% of MSCI Europe revenues directly exposed Trump threatens tariffs over Greenland dispute EU weighs retaliation and legal options Defence stocks remain a key beneficiary European

There is a report that Trump concedes ‘bad information’ on Greenland troop moves, opening path to de-escalation. Trump’s concession on Greenland troop deployments hints at de-escalation, but the strategic standoff with Europe remains unresolved. Summary: Trump privately conceded he may have had “bad information” on Greenland troop moves European deployments were pre-briefed and coordinated with

Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront as Trump raised the stakes on the whole Greenland situation over the weekend. In case you missed it, he threatened tariffs on eight European countries over their opposition to US control of Greenland. That being Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, and the UK. The tariffs will come

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. Previous close was 6.9640 PBOC injects 324bn yuan, 7-day reverse repos, unchanged rate 1.4%. Earlier: PBOC set 5-

Here is a massive number: $8 Trillion European countries hold $8 trillion in US bonds and equities. That is almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined. It’s also what’s at stake over Greenland as Europe finds out that Trump plans to conquer Greenland and will put tariffs on seven European countries

Croatian central banker Boris Vujcic was selected as the next Vice President of the European Central Bank. Vujcic is a classic continuity pick. He’s been governor of Croatia’s central bank since 2012 and spent much of that time doing the unglamorous but important work of getting the country ready for the euro. When Croatia finally

Trump’s letter to Norway pretty much sums it up: “Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace…” The US President sent that out along with several ultimatums demanding the US annex Greenland. Europe is

The current Vice President of the European Central Bank is Luis de Guindos of Spain, who has been serving in the role since June 2018 but will step down in May and the political wrangling for a replacement is ongoing. A Eurogroup meeting is underway and some reports say the next ECB vie president is

Headlines: Silver jumps to a new all-time high as Trump threatens tariffs over Greenland Nasdaq futures extend losses as Trump declares trade war over Greenland. What’s next? Another start to the week, another one with Trump making the headlines Trump and TACO: Will it be different this time? One last chance to preserve the old

Monday starts quietly, with the U.S. observing a bank holiday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day but Canada will get its inflation data prints. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. Wednesday brings inflation data from the U.K. while Thursday Australia will publish

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver jumped into a new all-time high today following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from

We may not see the same people in the classic photo above, but the situation speaks to the same kind of mood as we approach perhaps the biggest WEF event ever. Yes, it is that time of the year again. Global politics will take center stage and all eyes are on Davos as US president

Trump on Greenland, the bluster continues: says “now is the time, it will be done” South Korea banks signal modest credit easing as debt curbs persist China factory output accelerates as retail sales and investment lag – recap China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth target China home prices fall again

Globex has reopened for trade for the (holiday impacted) week: ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures) gapped 0.8% lower NQ (Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures) gapped lower by 1.1% US Fed Fund futures are up a couple of ticks As I am sure you know by know if you follow along with us here each Monday, early

Over the weekend, Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. Trump is obsessed with Greenland citing national security reasons. According to him, if the US

KEY POINTS: US Dollar weakened across the board on the latest Trump’s trade war Japanese Yen found support from more intense verbal intervention and rate hike expectations USD/JPY bounced from a major trendline, now at crossroads. FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board to start the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland.

She is making it official now as she announces that she will be calling a snap election on 23 January. That is when the next ordinary Diet session takes place, in which she will dissolve the lower house of parliament. Takaichi also adds that she will be asking for a mandate to continue as prime

The US dollar is at the lows of the day across most of the foreign exchange market. The possibility of a fresh trade war is coming into focus as the US President grows increasingly erratic in insisting the US annex Greenland. That’s setting up a battle with the EU and the potential for a financial

As a reminder, the World Economic Forum (WEF) is taking place in Davos this week. The event starts today until Friday but most of what we’ll be seeing on the agenda and on the sidelines are likely to take place from tomorrow onwards. You can check out the highlights of the agenda from earlier here:

Japan household inflation expectations ease slightly but remain elevated, BOJ survey shows Summary: One-year inflation expectations ease but remain very high Households expect prices to rise 11.6% on average over next year Long-term inflation expectations remain elevated Slight softening offers limited reassurance for BOJ Inflation psychology still deeply entrenched Japanese households continue to expect prices

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There are some large ones but nothing that should be too impactful, given how the state of play is developing in the major currencies space. The Japanese yen remains in focus amid intervention risks as traders continue

Summary: UK asking prices rise 2.8% m/m, biggest January jump on record Prices now 0.5% higher y/y after recent weakness Housing supply at highest seasonal level since 2014 Confidence improves after budget uncertainty fades Affordability pressures still limit upside UK asking prices recorded their strongest rise for this time of year on record, signalling a

Will not comment on forex levels But will take appropriate action if needed Still examining source of revenues to fund consumption tax cut Have to be mindful of movements in forex, interest rates in considering revenues to fund consumption tax cut Will keep an eye out on speculative forex moves, ready to take necessary action

I popped up the data earlier: China data: Q4 GDP 4.5% y/y (expected 4.4%), Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (expected 1.2%) See the screenshot above for the short summary of the main headline data points. Follow up on the GDP data is here: China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth target

Prior +2.1% Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The key statistic here is core annual inflation, which continues to hold above the 2% threshold for now. As such, that will keep the ECB sidelined in waiting on their next potential policy move. As mentioned before, the main sticking point at this stage

Summary: New home prices fall 0.4% m/m, 2.7% y/y in December Annual decline fastest in five months Majority of cities continue to record price falls Secondary market weakness persists across all tiers Property investment and sales remain deeply negative China’s December housing data point to a stubborn property slump that continues to weigh on confidence

Prior was 2.2% Inflation m/m -0.2% vs +0.1% prior BOC core 2.8% vs 2.9% prior BOC core m/m -0.4% vs -0.1% prior Core CPI % m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% prior CPI median +2.5% vs +2.8% expected CPI trim +2.7% vs +2.8% expected CPI common +2.8% vs 2.8% prior Ex gasoline +3.0% vs +2.6% prior The

Crypto markets continue to deliver a mix of regulatory developments, institutional experimentation, and long-awaited project launches, highlighting how digital assets are advancing on multiple fronts at once. One of the more notable policy-driven stories comes from South Asia. Pakistan Explores Cross-Border Payments Using World Liberty’s USD1 Pakistan has signed an agreement with a firm connected

Introduction: What Is a Broker? A broker is a person or company that helps traders and investors connect with financial markets. They make it possible for you to buy and sell things like shares, currencies, commodities, or other financial products. Brokers act as intermediaries, helping individual traders access large financial markets and liquidity providers. Today,

This is already shaping up to be Spain’s worst rail crash in more than a decade. For some context, the incident involved carriages on a Madrid-bound train that derailed and crossed over to the opposite tracks, colliding with an oncoming train in Adamuz on Sunday evening. The death toll is “not yet final”, according to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US Dollar weakened across the board to start the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will

US futures trade on Globex will be disrupted for the Martin Luther King Jr. hoiliday on January 19. See the (Partial) Screenshot from the CME holiday calendar. Times are Chicago time. More detail here ALL US stock exchanges, such as the NYSE and NASDAQ are closed. Bond markets will also be closed. This article was

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq futures opened lower today following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1

The latest tariffs threat from US president Trump further exacerbates uncertainty with regards to trade policy. And it also shows that nothing is set in stone when it comes to any “trade deal” that has been struck. As a reminder, Trump threatened the EU with additional tariffs over the weekend unless “a deal is reached

Summary: Q4 GDP slows to 4.5% y/y, weakest in three years Full-year 2025 growth hits 5.0% target Export strength offsets weak domestic demand Property slump and deflation drag on confidence Structural imbalances remain key risk China met its 2025 growth target, but a sharp Q4 slowdown highlights rising dependence on exports amid weak domestic demand.

Just posting this data, I’ll be back with more separately on this. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov) -6.4% expected +4.9%, prior +12.5% (MoM) (Nov) -11.0% expected -5.1%, prior 7.0% — Private sector machinery orders (excluding ship and power equipment) A guide to business investment (capex) for the months ahead (6 to 9 months out) This article

Risk has taken a hit, as has the US dollar after the news over the weekend of Trump promising higher tariffs again and Europe assessing retaliation Earlier: Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. ‘Risk’ lower on Trump’s latest trade war EU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little

Noting the data, I’ll be back separately with more on all this. Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2025 4.5% y/y is a beat y/y and q/q expected 4.4%, prior 4.8% 1.2% q/q expected 1.0%, prior 1.1% December 2025 data: Retail Sales 0.9% y/y expected 1.2%, prior 1.3% Industrial Production 5.2% y/y expected 5.0%, prior 4.8%

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we only have the final Eurozone CPI report. This is not a market-moving release given that the market pays more attention to the Flash report. It’s rare to see big deviations from the preliminary numbers, so the reaction will likely be muted. Today’s session (and the next days really)

Gold has skyrocketed to a new all time high above US$4680. The safe haven bid is in response to Trump announcing his plan for more tariffs as his dispute with the rest of the world over Greenland escalates. ICYMI: The European Union is stepping up efforts to contain a rapidly escalating trade dispute with Washington

The latest post from Trump on his social media app: NATO has been telling Denmark, for 20 years, that “you have to get the Russian threat away from Greenland.” Unfortunately, Denmark has been unable to do anything about it. Now it is time, and it will be done!!! President Donald J. Trump The threats and

It’s looking rough out there as geopolitical tensions now spill over to economic risks. As Trump raises the stakes on Greenland, he is threatening the EU with fresh 10% tariffs that will be enacted on 1 February. And if things keep this way, he will raise them further to 25% starting 1 June. That is

The start of the 2026 has been all about US president Trump’s threats and actions so far. In the first week, it was the invasion of Venezuela. Last week, it was the attack on the Fed’s independence and escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran. This week, tariffs are once again back in the picture as Trump

Summary: Japan election boosts chances of consumption tax cut LDP and opposition back temporary removal of food tax 10-year JGB yield hits highest level since 1999 Inflation pressures intensify political push for relief Fiscal risks worry bond investors Japan election risks revive sales tax cut debate, rattling bond markets Japan’s looming snap general election is

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

South Korean banks are edging toward easier credit in early 2026, but tight household debt controls keep the shift cautious. Summary: Banks’ lending sentiment turns positive for first time in a year Mortgage and corporate lending conditions ease modestly Household debt controls remain firmly in place Potential support for KOSPI financials and cyclicals Won impact

This will be in relation to the snap election expected. Just noting this. Earlier: Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

At least 10 people were killed and more than 25 seriously injured after two high-speed trains derailed near Córdoba, close to Adamuz, on January 18. The collision halted high-speed rail services between Madrid and Andalucía in Spain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China December 2025 new home prices -0.4% m/m prior -0.4% -2.7% y/y prior -2.4% China December 2025 used home prices -0.7% m/m prior -0.7% The falls continue. It’s a vicious circle for home prices in China, why buy now when prices are expected to keep falling. — The main data from China is still to

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. The USD up a little on Trump’s latest tariff trade war escalation. I’ll have more to come on this separately. This article

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

This snapshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. The data of

Summary: Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. EU to convene emergency leaders’ summit amid U.S. tariff threats over Greenland Trump announces 10% tariffs from

Trump: I may want to keep Hassett where he is Canada strikes tariff deal with China on agriculture and electric vehicles Powell will be tempted to stay as a Governor beyond May, former Fed vice chair says Fed’s Bowman: Should be ready to cut rates again amid job market risks US industrial production rises more

The New York Times is out with an article on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell: Powell cultivated deep Congressional ties anticipating political backlash. GOP Senators Tillis and Thune publicly backed the Fed Chair, support went beyond what Powell expected Even critic Kevin Cramer credits Powell’s relationship-building skills Trump may rethink his nominee choice amid Senate pushback

The Fed’s Jefferson is out with a speech late in the day but he isn’t giving much away: Some upside risks remain, but expect inflation to return to path back to 2% Inflation somewhat elevated, rise in core good prices inconsistent with return to 2% inflation Cautiously optimistic for 2026, though face risks to both

Oil prices are under some pressure after Trump writes: I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you! Iran is a brutal regime that’s quickly sentenced people to death for protesting poor economic conditions. It’s

We haven’t heard much from Bowman since she was ruled out as a candidate for Fed Chair. US economy has been resilient Wage growth consistent with 2% inflation Fed has made considerable progress in lowering inflation Underlying inflation levels closer to Fed’s 2% target Says she is concerned about labor market fragility Firms may start

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After Wednesday, it looked like US-Iran tensions were finally subsiding following a comment from Trump where he said that the killing in Iran was stopping and that there were no plans for executions. That triggered a sharp drop in oil prices because Trump threatened “strong actions” in case the Iranian regime killed protestors.

Trump seems to rule out Hassett as Fed chair in comments. Trump said that Hassett was good on TV today and that he “may want to keep him where he is”. He added that “we’ll see how it works out”. Some Republican Senators have expressed reservations about Hassett because he’s so close to Trump, so

ICYMI from yesterday: China new bank lending stumbles once again in 2025 PBOC to cut rates on various structural policy tools by 25 bps The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely

Spot prices for lithium have experienced significant volatility to begin 2026, with Scotiabank analysts characterizing the recent surge as disconnected from underlying market fundamentals. Domestic Chinese lithium carbonate prices have risen 34% year-to-date, while spodumene prices have increased by 46%. The rapid rise has seen lithium carbonate move from approximately $18,000 per metric tonne to

Prior was 39 Current single-family home sales 41 vs 42 prior Prospective buyers 23 vs 26 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 52 prior In the past month, US 30-year yields have ticked 5-7 basis points higher but there have been signs of buyers wading in via the latest existing

Sector Overview Today’s market shows a robust performance in the technology and semiconductor sectors, with companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) leading the gains. Nvidia soared +1.26%, while AMD saw an impressive rise of +2.16%. The semiconductor boom is further bolstered by Micron Technology (MU), climbing +6.55%. On the other side of

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 48 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 1 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC: 10 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 mark. It’s not the largest of expiries on the board for today but it is a decent-sized one at least. That could help to keep price action a bit

Prior +1.1% HICP +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelim Prior +1.1% The changes in headline annual inflation is light with core annual inflation keeping stable at 1.7% in December. On average, Italian consumer price inflation is seen growing by 1.5% in 2025. And that’s a step up from the 1.0% back in 2024. That being said,

Canada & China are moving to rebuild ties, eye closer cooperation in agriculture & energy MUFG sees modest rise in India bond yields as RBI holds rates, near end of easing cycle Yen rose as intervention warnings meet talk of earlier BOJ rate hikes (April hike risk) Japan fin min “Won’t exclude any options” ,

The final candidate for Fed Chairman met with President Trump this week and maybe he still has a chance. The President is notoriously fickle and has a flair for the dramatic so maybe the final impression was the best one. Fox Business reports that the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock had