I think the change in expectations to the Fed outlook reflects the sort of scramble and divisive uncertainty in markets at the moment. While some are thinking the Fed will cut more, there are some thinking that they will cut less or won’t all this year. Nomura was in the former camp but they are […]

At least it shows he cares about the stock market, though that’s hard to correlate with a 5.3% drop in the Nasdaq today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 2.7% This keeps with the trend of further softening in the labour market after the post-Covid recovery. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan February 2024 household spending data: -0.5% y/y expected was -1.7%, prior +0.8% +3.5% m/m expected +0.5%, prior -4.5% Yen is swinging around so far on the session, traders are jittery after the hug moves in response to Trumpo’s tariffs. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was argued that it was no longer possible to be confident that monetary policy was restrictive It was suggested that the balance was increasingly shifting towards the transmission of rate cuts Replacing “monetary policy remains restrictive” with “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive” was widely seen as a reasonable compromise Likely shocks on

When the two largest economies in the world are set to be hit hard, this is what you get. This just adds to the echo chamber that is keeping the initial reaction in markets focused more on recession risks. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecasts, citing concerns over escalating trade tariffs and a slight increase in supply from OPEC+ producers. Sees Brent crude averaging $69 per barrel and WTI at $66 in 2025, with further declines to $62 and $59, respectively, in 2026. These projections are $4 below the forward-curve implied averages

A reporter for Bloomberg with the info: US officials today told the UK that they’re open to talking about Britain’s proposal to reduce tariffs below 10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fitch picked a heckuva day to downgrade a major economy. We forecast China’s general government deficit to rise to 8.4% of GDP in 2025, from 6.5% in 2024 We forecast China GDP to increase by 4.4% in 2025 from 5.0% in 2024 Tariff rise has been much more drastic and China will still be affected

White House internal talking points say tariffs aren’t open to negotiation – report March non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Sentiment is bad but what about hiring? Trump says stocks will ‘boom’ despite tariffs rout Fed’s Cook sees more emphasis on upside inflation risks More from Fed’s Jefferson: Still substantial uncertainty around the trade Macron:

Prior 41.2 Germany’s construction sector remains largely subdued in Q1 with little signs of optimism in general. All three subsectors continue to reflect declines in activity still. The only saving grace in the plans for infrastructure spending but that will take some time to play out. HCOB notes that: “The sustained decline in activity in

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 102 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 72 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 75 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 69 bps (55% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 99 bps

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That said, I’ll begin with a big caveat in saying that the expiries board don’t matter all too much and won’t have much, if any, impact on days/weeks like these. It’s all market emotion and reaction to key headlines more

BOJ will aim to raise rates to 1% under current rate hike cycle The next rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75% could happen either in May or June That will be followed up with a pause For the time being at least, traders are not anticipating the BOJ to move in May or June. That

With mainland and Hong Kong markets out today, trading linked are also closed. , What are these ‘trading links’? Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is one: a mutual market access program through which investors in each market can trade shares on the other market directly launched in 2014 Northbound Trading allows international and Hong Kong investors

Japan finance minister Kato says has no comment on forex warns tariffs could have a significant impact on trade systems also impact on economies This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA), a conservative legal group, has filed the first lawsuit challenging Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese imports. The suit claims Trump exceeded his legal authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). It was filed in federal court in Florida and targets both the April 2

Eurostoxx -0.8% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.9% UK FTSE -0.7% Spain IBEX -1.5% Italy FTSE MIB -1.8% European equities are poised for their worst weekly showing since the market rout from late July to early August last year. US futures are also keeping lower for now, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5%. As

Stellantis laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities following Trump tariff announcement the firm is also pausing production at one assembly plant each in Mexico and Canada In a letter sent to employees … the firm said its “continuing to assess the medium- and long-term effects of these tariffs on our operations, but also

New York Times reports the EU is considering fining X over $1 billion. NYT is gated. I’ll post more if its of interest. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley has withdrawn its forecast for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in June, citing rising inflation risks stemming from Trump’s newly announced tariffs. The bank now expects the Fed to hold rates steady through to March 2026. Trump announced sweeping tariffs on US imports on Wednesday, higher duties targeting dozens of countries. Morgan

The pair is down 0.2% to 1.1020 levels at the moment after touching a high of just above 1.1100 earlier in the day. The dollar is holding steadier in trading today and that’s helping with the mood somewhat. Still, we are seeing safety bids keep up with USD/CHF down 0.5% to 0.8545 at the moment.

Whirlpool Corp. will lay off 651 workers from its Amana manufacturing facility effective June 1 company cites reduced consumer demand for its refrigeration products More here. ps. this is not breaking, it was out Thursday US time ICYMI. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 44.6 The downturn in the UK construction sector continues but moderated slightly in March. It’s not a good look with all three subsectors (commercial building, residential building, civil engineering) still in decline. Adding to that is a steep decline in employment levels, so that’s something to be wary about. S&P Global notes that: “March

The worse than expected tariffs announcement on Wednesday triggered recessionary fears in the markets. Crude oil was one of the markets most affected by that news as OPEC+ continues to hike supply. So, we have both higher supply and lower demand expectations obviously leading to lower prices. Moreover, OPEC+ yesterday surprised with a bigger boost

It’s hard to find reasons to be optimistic about the oil market at the moment. The macro backdrop is such a tough one to go up against with OPEC+ increasing production in a time when Trump wants lower oil prices and heightened risks of a global economic slowdown. Tariff fears and a risk off mood

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda in the Diet today. Amongst the questions will likely be some on the rapid yen appreciation and the drop in JGB yields since Trump’s tariff announcements. FWIW the speculation is that Trump’s moves may prompt some offshore selling of USTs. JGBs are the logical alternative IMO. Anyway, stay tuned for

IMF chief Georgieva Says U.S. tariff measures represent a ‘significant risk to the global outlook’ at a time of sluggish growth Says it is important to avoid steps that could further harm the world economy We appeal to the U.S. and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce tensions This article was written by

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Will raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against background of continued improvements in economy We will examine, without any preset idea, whether our economic, price forecasts laid out in our quarterly report will be achieved We will scrutinise at each meeting economic, price developments and risks including impact

AUD and NZD losing ground Trump has fired NSA Director Timothy Haugh South Korea Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon Suk Yeolhis impeachment Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs have raised uncertainty Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Friday, Barr and Waller also Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts amid tariff concerns and

Earlier post on this is here: Trump would consider deal where China approves TikTok sale in exchange for tariff relief The Financial Times following up now with similar: This is also relevant: Flip flop time – Trump says he is open to deals on tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda US tariffs likely to exert downward pressure on Japan, global economies Hard to say now how US tariffs will affect Japan’s price moves Will closely monitor US tariff impact on Japan, overseas economic and price developments in deciding monetary policy We will scrutinise data, including from hearings, available at the

The Atlantic leak last week was a sign that the people running foreign policy in the United States were making it up as they go along. The reasoning behind the tariff rates today may be even worse. Here are some examples: These numbers were purported to be some kind of well-thought-out number to represent the

Consensus estimate +135K Estimate range +50K to +185K February was +151K Private consensus +135K versus +151K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396% Prior participation rate 62.4% Prior underemployment U6 8.0% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3%

A key variable in the next leg in markets is how the Federal Reserve reacts to all this. I’ve seen some research today showing this will push US inflation to 5% and that’s a big headache for Powell. The market is pricing in a very high likelihood of a rate cut in June and about

The National Security Agency (NSA) is the preeminent US wiretapping and cyber espionage service. Washington Post reports that its director has been fired. This comes after Trump fired multiple administration officials, including at least three National Security Council staffers, on Thursday. Make of this what you will, and what the market implications, if any, are.

The political turmoil in South Korea casued financail marekt uncertainty. Indeed, South Korea will hold a financial market discussion meeting later today. The Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Korea, and regulatory agencies will meet later. KRW update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs have heightened uncertainty for the global economic outlook BOJ tankan showed some manufacturers saw hit from U.S. tariffs, sluggish Chinese & overseas demand March BOJ tankan also showed improvement in non-manufacturers’ business sentiment reflecting Japan’s moderate economic recovery Taken together, we see Japan business sentiment in good

Headlines: The dollar hemorrhage continues in European trading How have interest rates expectations changed after the tariffs announcement? EU trade commissioner says will talk to US counterparts tomorrow German Chancellor Scholz: Europe will respond appropriately and proportionately “We are ready in this trade war”, says France Japan says have not heard rationale behind reciprocal tariffs

1525/1125 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook before the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, in Arlington, Va 1600/1200 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on “Artificial Intelligence and Banking” before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco State University, and University of California

It’s looking rough out there again for stocks with US futures being hammered after yesterday’s losses. The S&P 500 closed down by nearly 5% and while that looks bad, the chart below still shows that the latest rout isn’t that ugly in the bigger picture. That despite the declines being over 12% from the recent

The AUDUSD made a run higher in early trading, but momentum stalled at a familiar resistance zone — just below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high, and near the swing high from two weeks ago. That ceiling, around 0.6390–0.64136, remains a key upside barrier. Buyers made a push, but the

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for GDP has worsened to -3.8% from -2.8%. Adjusting for imports and exports of gold the growth is forecast at -1.4 percent. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April

Canada was one of the ‘winners’ yesterday but that ignores auto tariffs, steel, aluminum and products not covered under USMCA. So while the news could have been worse, there is still plenty of pain to come. With that in mind, Carney isn’t in the mood to back down: Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all

Forecasts for Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts ramped higher in the wake of Trump’s tariff trade war announcement on Wednesday. ANZ see the RBA cutting by 25bp at the next meeting, in May then further cuts in July and August The current cash rate is 4.1% (was cut from 4.35% in February). Three

Australia ends daylight saving this weekend. Clocks will be turned back an hour on Sunday, April 6. We call it Autumn here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump posted on Truth Social and he seems to think this is the worst of it. We’ll see: THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! Maybe I’m reading too much

SPX daily It was a bloodbath today, particularly for any company that has supply chains in southeast Asia or exposure to the consumer. There was barely a company that was spared. The tariffs certainly aren’t hitting all companies but the market is pricing in a recession risk. How far it needs to tilt towards that

The Washington Post has obtained an internal talking points memo from the White House that says the new tariff regime shouldn’t be characterized as a tarting point for negotiation. Instead, they should be characterized as a response to a national emergency. The report also said Trump himself told advisors that the tariffs are not about

Comments from Cook: Sees growth slowing, inflation progress to stall on tariffs Sees more emphasis on upside inflation risks Appropriate to maintain current policy for now while watching data Now is time for Fed to be patient but attentive Fed policy is well positioned to respond to changes in the economy Inflation data already showing

The USDCHF had been confined in a range within a range (see red boxes on the chart above). The price moved outside the first box at 0.8794 and then got to the low of the 2nd box at 0.8755. There was some stall near that area in the Asian-Pacific session, but then broke lower and

Barclays has flagged downside risks to its $74 per barrel forecast for Brent crude in 2025, citing the escalating global trade war. Analysts at the bank noted that mounting trade tensions are likely to dampen global economic activity and oil demand, tilting the risks to its price outlook to the downside. *** Hard to say

More commentary from Fed Vice chairman Jefferson: still substantial uncertainty around trade uncertainty can weigh on spending, investment decisions. Will be important to take our time and think about impact. When assessing policy changes, I try to focus on collective policies, including physical, immigration, regulation. Net effect of all policies that influence view on monetary

The NASDAQ index is now down -5.42%. That takes the percentage loss to the highest since the 2020 pandemic. In 2022 the index fell -5.16%. In June 2020, the index fell -5.27%. At the start of the pandemic in 2020 the index fell -12.32% on March 16. That decline far outpaced any other daily laws

Understanding the rhythm of financial markets can give traders a significant edge. Seasonalities—lasting trends that repeat themselves during some periods of the year—tend to influence the value of assets and the overall market state. Identifying these cycles allows traders to adapt their strategies better and make more informed decisions. Understanding seasonal patterns Seasonality in the

In the long-term, you need to expect US markets to do really well All the policies of the US were designed to make the world rich and us poor I don’t think there will be exemptions, will not be effective for countries to retaliate against Trump tariffs Countries need to change their rules to allow

S&P 500 future are down 3.7% today. It could be worse. One of the biggest decliners is Nike, which is down 14% after tariffs hit almost every country it manufactures in. The company reportedly has 150 factories in Vietnam and a half-million workers. No one was expecting a 46% tariff on Vietnam and it will

The VIX has risen again, this time to 30, which is a huge number – the highest since August 5 last year. It rises at times of chaos in the stock market, Trump said he expected the collapse. *** Repeating this …. For info on the surge in VIX. So what, you ask? The TL;DR

Republicans mulling the creation of a new tax bracket for those earning US$1 mn or more. talks have included a new top rate that would be around 39% to 40%. Sceptical of this one. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JPM analysts say Trump’s combined tariff hikes amount to a 22% increase—comparable to the largest U.S. tax rise since 1968. As a result, the bank has raised its estimated risk of a global recession to 60%, up from 40%. The note highlights concerns that the economic impact could be worsened by potential retaliation, supply chain

Prior was -$131.4 billion (revised to -$130.7 billion) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior week 224K revised to 225K. Initial jobless claims 219K versus 225K estimate 4- week moving average of initial jobless claims 223K vs 224.25K last week Continuing claims 1.903M vs 1.870M estimate 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.871M vs 1.868M last week Prior week continuing claims 1.847M The largest increases in initial claims for the

No need to be in a hurry on policy rate adjustments Current policy rate well-positioned to deal with risks, uncertainties Could retain current policy restraint for longer, or ease policy, depending on inflation progress and job market Policy rate is now somewhat restrictive Labor market solid, well-balanced Latest data shows inflation moving sideways Longer-term inflation

S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Key Bear Flag Breakdown & Channel Levels to Watch Market: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) Timeframe: 4-Hour Chart Date: April 3, 2025, post Tariff Man Chaos! But this still shows the order. Source: ForexLive.com (to be evolving to investingLive.com later this year) Overview – S&P 500 Technical Analysis Today This S&P

The Fed is in a tough spot. If these tariffs last, it could lead to 5% inflation in the US this year. Now many would argue that’s a temporary shock that policymakers would look thorough but that harkens back to the the ‘Team Temporary’ talk that is a stain on Powell’s legacy. The market is

Perceived trade imbalances do not take into account digital services Indirect consequences of tariffs may lead other countries in Asia to boost exports to Europe The US economy and consumers will become poorer and weaker We will react in organised and unified manner Response to Wednesday’s announcement of US tariffs will be more massive than

French president Macron is on the wires. Calls on all big European businesses to freeze all investments in the US in retaliation for brutal and unjustified import duties imposed by Pres. Trump it’s important that all investment, plan or already announced, should be suspended until we have clarified things with the US. Macrons warns of

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. Take care in equities, especially if you are of a mind to BTD still. We don’t want any of this out there in ForexLive land ….

Trump spoke with media on his plane, AF1: he’s open to deals if countries offer something “so phenomenal” “the tariffs give us great power to negotiate” The background to this is that Trump aides and allies spent the last 24 hours saying the tariffs were non-negotiable. That Trump President was not intending to make deals.

The USDJPY is under pressure after breaking through several critical technical levels, shifting the near-term bias firmly to the downside. The break below the converged 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, along with the 50% retracement of the September low to the March high (149.22–149.30), marked the initial bearish trigger. That

The firm says that should the latest set of tariffs remain in place, it could push the US economy “to the precipice of a recession”. Well, that’s the hot take after Trump’s announcement yesterday it would seem. From earlier: Barclays warns of strong possibility of a US recession this year JP Morgan say Trump tariffs

EURUSD is up 2.38% on the day — its largest single-day percentage gain since December 2015, when the pair rose 3.06%. Technically, the rally is pushing the pair toward key resistance from the 2024 highs, which span from 1.1200 to 1.1213. So far today, the high has reached 1.1144. Looking back to 2024, there’s a

Prior was $3.97 billion (revised to $3.13 billion) Exports $70.11 billion vs $74.21 billion prior Imports $71.63 billion vs $71.08 billion prior That’s a drag on Canadian growth. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was 54.3 Prior was 51.0 The ISM services index is due at the top of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Momma needs a new pair of shoes, but they will probably cost a lot more. Looking at all the prices of the stocks of major shoe manufacturers like Nike, Puma, Adidas, Deckers, Crox, UnderArmour, On Holding. Add in Lulu and Footlocker, you are seeing big price declines. All are exposed to the tariffs with manufacturing

Prior was 53.5 Data: Employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior New orders 50.4 vs 52.2 prior Prices paid 60.9 vs 62.6 prior Business activity 55.9 vs 54.4 prior Supplier deliveries 50.6 vs 53.4 prior Inventories 50.3 vs 50.6 prior Backlog of orders 47.4 vs 51.7 prior New export orders 45.8 vs 52.1 prior Imports 52.6 vs

Eyes are on the yuan for a potential devaluation as a way to retaliate against US tariffs. It’s a major risk that Deutsche Bank has highlighted, with 7.30 as a line in the sand. WSJ China correspondent Lingling Wei writes: Financial officials in Beijing may be positive on deval — which would free up some

As with XAUUSD, April started with optimism for the oil market, as Brent crude oil rose above $75 per barrel for the first time since February 21. The driver remains the same as in recent weeks: rising geopolitical risks. Traders are increasingly hedging against the possibility that Trump will make good on his threats to

The stand out winner across major FX is JPY. USD/JPY is down more than 150 points from earlier highs, dropping under 148.80 as I update. Yen crosses tracing out the same sort of pattern (EUR/JPY is circa 161.00 … massive slump). Yen loving the chaos, standing out as a ‘safe haven’. Sheesh …! This article

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 82 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 70 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 60 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 57 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 83 bps

The latest wave of tariff announcements by Trump is likely to put short-term pressure on risk assets, including equities in both the U.S. and Asia, according to Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist for Asia Pacific at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Hui notes that investor concerns are shifting from inflation to the risk of an economic

The healthcare industry is undergoing a significant transformation, and VSee Health, Inc. (Nasdaq: VSEE) is at the forefront, pioneering AI-driven telehealth solutions that are revolutionizing patient care. As a leader in digital health technology, VSEE is redefining the $787 billion digital healthcare market with cutting-edge innovations, major partnerships, and a rapidly growing client base that

More, this form an unnamed White House official: A 10% baseline tariff will be imposed on all countries, with higher reciprocal tariffs for the worst offenders. Countries will be charged half of the calculated reciprocal tariff rate, which considers both tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Products covered by Section 232 tariffs (autos, steel, aluminum, copper, lumber)

Final Services PMI 52.5 vs 53.2 expected Prior 51.0 Final Composite PMI 51.5 vs 52.0 expected Prior 50.5 Key findings: Modest expansion of service sector business activity New work rises for first time in three months, but job cuts continue Steep increase in input prices, driven by higher payroll costs Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director

Trump has announced a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, along with higher “reciprocal” tariffs on about 60 countries, including key allies and major trade partners like China (34%) and the European Union (20%). Whiter House press sec Leavitt says the 34% rate on China will be added to the current 20% rate for

The moves on the session are turning rather outsized now but they’re all in one direction. And that is the dollar falling out of favour as it continues to be pummeled across the board. EUR/USD is now up 1.9% to 1.1060 and USD/JPY down 1.9% as well to 146.43 on the day, with the latter

A Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Gold — Why It Matters and How to Start A clear, beginner-friendly guide to help young investors understand why gold is still relevant and how to invest in it. “Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years — and it still plays a role in modern

When Trump was set to win the presidential election last October, this is one chart that clearly shows how China chose to respond. The fear was an escalation in trade conflict as he takes office. And when that didn’t turn out too bad in January, the Chinese yuan managed to find some stability. That is

In terms of monetary policy, this uncertainty means we need to be extremely prudent when determining the appropriate stance. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

How to Trade the S&P 500 Today Using tradeCompass Without Chasing Tariff News Current Price at Time of Analysis: 5,542.5 Today’s tradeCompass analysis focuses on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) and offers a clear, technical trading plan — deliberately avoiding the noise and uncertainty around today’s Trump tariff headlines. After last night’s dramatic market

That being said, they are still maintaining their forecast for China’s full year 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%. I’m not sure how their estimate works on that but okay. This was their previous baseline forecast in November last year: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Shares serious concern whether US tariffs are compatible with trade agreements Will continue to demand US to reconsider tariff measures Will not hesitate to directly approach US president Trump if appropriate In other words, they won’t be doing anything and that is as expected considering the nature of their alliance. Japan was slapped with 24%

Trump speech on more tariffs: Trump says he’ll sign an EO applying reciprocal tariffs – what they do to us we’ll do to them Awaiting anything of substance, stay tuned. imposes 10% across the board is the leak (via Wall Street Journal) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian dollar looks like the winner of Trump’s tariff announcement. The announcement was unclear on whether Canada would be included in the 10% baseline but CNBC confirms that both Mexico and Canada have exceptions and will remain under the current regime that allows USMCA-compliant goods to continue to enter the US tariff-free. That’s a

Will respond along with Europe to Trump’s tariffs Could target digital services in reciprocal measures First response likely to be in mid-April, then another one in late April Fairly certain Trump tariffs will have a recessionary impact in certain areas The retaliation is the next thing to watch out for, then any further escalation if

Now is not the time for a backgrounder on the institutional adoption of crypto, such as Bitcoin, and how this has brought it in closer correlation with more established risk assets. But … its been sold off alongside the moves in stocks, risk FX and more: ETH is under US$1800 as I post. If you

US tariffs will impact economic growth US tariffs to negatively impact euro area GDP growth rate by 0.3% to 0.4% in first year The inflation path remains unchanged This seems to be the start of the narrative building towards a rate cut in the next two weeks. But markets are already quite prepared for that

The Trump’s announcement yesterday was without a doubt worse than expected. There were some positive caveats like reciprocal tariffs not coming into effect immediately and so on, but there’s a limit to optimism and hopefulness. Right now, the market is pricing a slowdown in global growth which is generally negative for crude oil prices as

Stock market implosion in response to Trump’s latest economic policy. ES and NQ both lower. Big time. Globex has reopened for ‘overnight’ trade. Here’s the full list tariff war declaration This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian trade data for February 2025 Australia trade balance for February 7.46bn AUD surplus expected surplus 5.6bn AUD prior surplus 5.62bn AUD exports -3.6% m/m prior +1.3% imports +1.6% m/m prior -0.3% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Services PMI 52.0 vs. 52.5 expected Prior 53.0 Composite PMI 50.5 vs. 51.9 prior. Key findings: Business confidence dips amid softer inflows of new work Export conditions near stabilisation Operating expenses rise at sharpest rate for 11 months Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “In

European Commission President von der Leyen US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world All businesses will suffer There seems to be no order in the disorder Agrees with Trump that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules EU

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.7% PPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.7% Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in prices for intermediate goods (+0.4%), energy (+0.2%), capital goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is just marginally offset by a decline in prices for consumer goods (-0.1%). This article

Deutsche is saying that amid the latest developments, there is a risk that major shifts in capital flow allocations take over from currency fundamentals. In turn, that will produce “disorderly” moves in the currencies market and trigger a confidence crisis in the US dollar. I’m guessing what they mean is the sort of thing we’re

US Treasury Secretary Bessent in an interview with CNN: advises other countries to not retaliate to US tariffs to avoid escalation Bessent says he ‘does not know’ how stock markets will react to tariffs Bessent spoke earlier: Bessent: Trump might be to let things settle for awhile rather than negotiate tariffs This article was written

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan Trade Minister Muto: Held online meeting with US Commerce Secretary. Told US Secretary new US tariffs would bring negative impact on US economy as well. Told US counterpart new tariffs announcement is “extremely regrettable.” Need to analyse content and examine impact on Japan economy. Will ask US strongly to exempt Japan from tariff measures.

Prior 50.6 Composite PMI 50.9 vs 50.4 prelim Prior 50.2 The headline continues to point to a marginal growth in the euro area services sector to wrap up Q1. The feeling is that it’s not the best but not the worst either. In other words, the euro area economy continues to stagnate in general. There

US-based employers announced a surge in job cuts last month, with the number of planned layoffs rising by over 60% compared to February to 275,240. That’s the highest level since the recession during the pandemic as the DOGE impact continues to reverberate. Challenger notes that there were 497,052 layoffs in Q1 – the highest since

The supposed countermeasures were initially planned for 1 April but then were delayed. For some context: EU says to respond to US steel, aluminum tariffs with countermeasures EU says considering to delay first set of counter-tariffs against US to mid-April This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Stocks Affected by Trump Tariffs – and What You Can Do President Trump’s surprise announcement of sweeping new tariffs is shaking up global markets and triggering significant moves in key US stocks. The new tariff policy introduces a minimum 10% import tax and much higher tariffs on specific trade partners. China: 34% Japan: 24% Vietnam:

Japan’s services sector stagnated in March, with the Jibun Bank / S&P Global Services PMI falling to 50.0 matching the neutral level that separates growth from contraction from February’s 53.7 better than the earlier flash estimate of 49.5 The data suggests that momentum from earlier in the year has faded, as companies reported weaker market

At the end of last year, they argued for the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025 before scaling that back amid Q1 developments. But now with Trump’s tariffs, they are putting their previous forecast back on the table in expecting Powell & co. to deliver between 75 bps to 100 bps of rate

European Union President von der Leyen to make a statement on US tariffs Thursday morning – 5am Brussels time, 3am GMT Just so long as she knows I already said to kiss your a** goodbye … Its kiss your a** goodbye time for the global economy – massive tariff war declared She’ll be responding to

In adddtion to 10% blanket tariff, Trump has announced “half” tariffs on countries in reaction to tariffs on US goods. Below is the chart of some of the tariffs. He went big. If the products are made the US there will not be any tariffs. Shares which were up have turned lower with the QQQ

China will increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel starting Thursday, following recent rises in international crude oil prices, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The price of gasoline will rise by 230 yuan (approximately USD 32) per tonne, while diesel will increase by 220 yuan per tonne. The NDRC has called

The dollar is falling further in European trading as it fails to find any shelter in the first wave of the market reaction towards Trump’s tariffs. Worries about the tariffs driving the US economy to the brink of a recession are outweighing everything else, with traders clearly not liking the sort of uncertainty that Trump

The ECB will have to reassess the situation. US tariffs threaten global economic stability. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is now up to its highest levels since early October as it breaks the November and March highs. That puts the 1.1000 level in contention as the dollar is slumping across the board currently. As much as Trump’s tariffs are supposedly meant to squeeze other countries, there is growing fear that it is

Exchange rate reaction hard to predict See some risks for Swiss economy due to tariffs As mentioned earlier here, it’s not about tariffs equality or fairness. The reciprocal tariffs formulation is all about addressing the trade deficit. The SNB will have a lot of tinkering to do especially if a stronger Swiss franc is going

U.S. to impose 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports Higher rates to be levied on other nations considered bad actors on trade I haven’t seen the report itself yet but Bloomberg is also confirming it. There are some big moves on this, with the US dollar slumping and the euro, pound and commodity currencies rallying.

Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review: US tariff uncertainty poses substantial headwinds to global growth. Tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending. Risk of disorderly correction in global asset prices, putting pressure on non-bank lenders. Hedge funds particularly vulnerable to repricing of risk due to highly leveraged positions. US

And no change to policy is expected. So, carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As we continue to digest Trump’s tariffs, the dollar looks to be the early onset casualty as it continues to slump across the major currencies board today. But the loonie can also rejoice a bit as Trump didn’t double down on tariffs against Canada in his latest salvo. That makes just the 25% tariffs last

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 54% — a move that combines a newly imposed 34% reciprocal tariff with a prior 20% levy — brings the trade relationship closer to the “worst case scenario” outlined during his campaign, according to analysts at ING. Tariffs on certain goods, including

Europe will respond appropriately and proportionately. Trump’s decision on tariffs is fundamentally wrong. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF as well as the JPY are generally considered as safe havens in the FX space. They appreciate in times of risk-off sentiment and depreciate when the mood is positive. Trump yesterday surprised with worse than expected reciprocal tariffs that triggered a wave of risk-off flows on expectations of a global slowdown. The US

UBS estimates that if the full slate of proposed tariffs is permanently implemented, U.S. inflation could rise to around 5%, as import costs filter through to consumer prices. – I guess if the Fed views the jump as ‘transitory’ they will cut on the growth scare factor. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Final Services PMI 50.9 vs. 50.2 expected Prior 51.1 prior. Final Composite PMI 51.3 vs. 50.9 expected Prior 50.4 Key findings: Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 4-month low. Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 10-month high. Rates of input cost and output price inflation ease to five-month lows Comment: Commenting on the PMI

Well, the USTR published this in terms of how they calculated the tariffs to be applied. And as deciphered by many others by now, it seems to be that the way the tariffs are formulated is that it is a means to balance out the trade deficit. It’s not anything to do with tariffs fairness.

Why Global Investors Care About the US Dollar — And What a Dollar Confidence Crisis Means for You A beginner-friendly guide on why the US dollar matters in investing — and what could happen if trust in it starts to crumble. “The US dollar isn’t just America’s currency — it’s the world’s financial backbone.” Why

Eurostoxx -2.1% Germany DAX -2.2% France CAC 40 -2.1% UK FTSE -1.2% Spain IBEX -1.2% Italy FTSE MIB -1.7% It’s looking rough out there for stocks with US futures also being hammered down. S&P 500 futures are lower by 3.1% as tech shares are leading the declines there. Nasdaq futures are down 3.5% currently. The

I prepared this post earlier but hung off on it awaiting the news from Trump. He didn’t disappoint …. yowza! Anwya, here is what’s ahead on the data agenda if you are interested. The Australian PMIs are done and dusted: services: 51.6, ahead of expected (see screenshot below) composite: 51.6 also This snapshot from the

RBC’s Su-Lin Ong says the direct impact of Trump’s 10% tariff on Australia is likely limited, but broader trade and investment uncertainty could prompt a more dovish stance from the RBA. While the central bank’s cautious tone this week points to a gradual easing cycle, Ong notes that escalating global risks may increase the chances

Barclays is warning that current economic signals are pointing towards serious challenges ahead for the US economy. Adding that all of this makes the risk of a downturn much more likely in the coming months. As such, they are expecting US GDP growth for this year to slow to 0.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This

Reuters reports on some of the details of the auto tariffs from Trump, which go well beyond autos and parts. A big change is that they will include a 25% tariff on all computer imports, including laptops and desktops. That was $138.5 billion in 2024 and was not something that was rumored. Other parts of

Prior 45.3 Composite PMI 48.0 vs 47.0 prelim Prior 45.1 The revisions point to a modest improvement in French business activity towards the end of Q1, though still in contraction territory. That said, one must take into context the disappointing momentum in following up the Olympics boom in Q3 last year. So, there’s that. In

He says that the bloc will act in a “calm and unified” manner but also won’t stand idly by if they are unable to reach a fair deal with the US. As we watch out for retaliatory measures in the days/weeks ahead, negotiations are also an important moving part to be mindful of. From yesterday:

Supports keeping current policy rate in place as long as upside risks to inflation continue Inflation expectations have risen, coming policy changes hold upside risks Takes comfort that increases in long-term inflation have so far been small Recent high inflation, consumer expectations may be more sensitive to further price increases This is obviously being ignored

What Is Currency Risk in Investing — And Why It Matters to Your Portfolio A simple, practical guide for young investors to understand how currencies can impact their investing returns. “When you invest globally, you’re not just betting on stocks — you’re betting on currencies too.” What Is Currency Risk in Investing? Currency risk (also

Crude oil futures settled $71.71. That’s up $0.51 or 0.72%. The gains came despite a surprise jump in U.S. crude inventories, which rose by 6.2 million barrels last week according to the EIA, compared to analyst expectations of a 2.1 million barrel drawdown. The market’s focus appears to be shifting toward geopolitical risks, including new

As things stand, traders are nearly fully pricing in a rate cut for June at the moment. The odds of that are at ~94% currently. As for the year itself, traders are now pricing in ~84 bps of rate cuts and that’s a step up from around ~75 bps yesterday. It’s not a lot but

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The document at Trump’s tariff announcement puts China’s tariff rate at 34%. That’s a sliver of good news in an otherwise negative announcement on tariffs as there was talk it would be 50%. Now what’s not clear is whether this new tariff is on top of tariffs like fentanyl (25%) that are already in place.

China Commerce Ministry: China firmly opposes US tariffs and will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests China urges the US to immediately cancel unilateral tariff measures and properly resolve differences with trading partners through equal dialogue Many trading partners have expressed strong dissatisfaction and clear opposition This article was written by Eamonn

Prior +0.3% Core CPI +0.9% y/y Prior +0.9% Swiss inflation continues to keep thereabouts with core annual inflation hugging near the 1% mark. The market pricing believes that the SNB is done for the year, although Trump’s tariffs might be a threat to that as they are causing the Swiss franc to move higher. That

more to come Yen crosses much lower (higher yen) Gold, too, making gains: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump has scattered tariffs all over the place but many of the losers in this are countries that don’t send much to the US anyway. Some critical partners: China 54% European Union 39% Japan 24% India 26% South Korea 25% Vietnam 49% Now there is an important caveat here in that none of those go

It’s not too much of a change from the previous revision here at the end of March. But as mentioned before, this still marks a second year running that the average wage hike exceeds 5%. And even though it’s not quite the 6% desired, it’s still something that the BOJ can use to push their

JPMorgan economists cautioned on Wednesday that the sweeping tariff measures announced today could significantly disrupt U.S. economic momentum, raising the risk of a near-term recession. On a static basis, the newly unveiled policy is estimated to generate just under $400 billion in revenue — equivalent to roughly 1.3% of GDP — making it the largest

Jens Nordvig from Exante makes a good point today about the tariffs: Strategic events, such as a historical shift in trade policy, will not be digested that quickly. It could take weeks and months and even quarters, before we have their full effects embedded. Even if we were to get some sort of non-negotiable, permanent

Prior 56.2 Composite PMI 54.0 Prior 55.1 The growth in the Spanish economy is starting to moderate towards the end of Q1. The good news is that firms are still retaining a positive outlook but cost pressures are still holding up, even if input prices did ease slightly from February’s one-year high. But in any

In the European session, we will get the Swiss CPI and the final Services PMIs. In the American session, we have the US Challenger Job Cuts, the US Jobless Claims, the Canadian Services PMI and the US ISM Services PMI. The data in unlikely to matter much as the focus is on Trump’s tariffs announcement

German DAX futures -2.0% UK FTSE futures -1.5% Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 3.0% as tech shares lead the downside with Nasdaq futures down 3.4% currently. The risk aversion is translating to bids in the Japanese yen and Swiss franc mostly in FX. USD/JPY is down 1.4% to 147.10 while USD/CHF is down 1.1%

What a difference six months can make in terms of how the market perceives things. Back in October, traders took to the prospect of Trump’s presidency and tariffs in the fear that it will stir up inflation. There weren’t too much concerns about the health of the global economy with the US also looking poised

Spoos are getting beaten up in a 3.5% fall. Nasdaq future are down 4.1%. It’s safe to say the market doesn’t like what its heard on tariffs. I wonder if we get some leaks about negotiations ahead of April 9. Technically, that level is a big one or it takes us to the lowest since

Deutsche Bank is out wit ha quick note on the tariffs: Quick summary of President Trump’s announcements: tariffs on the American continent are lower than expected, European tariffs are as expected, tariffs on Asia significantly higher than expected. There should be a straightforward FX re-adjustment between Asia FX (weak) and Latam FX + CAD (strong)

The major US indices are closing higher ahead of the Pres. Trump tariff news. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which advanced by 0.87%. The S&P index rose by 0.67%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average +235.36 points or 0.56% at 42225.32 S&P index up 37.90 points or 0.67%

China’s services sector activity rose to a three-month high in March, with the Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI climbing to 51.9, up from 51.4 in February. The improvement was driven by stronger domestic demand and a pickup in new business, marking the fastest pace of growth in new orders since December. The data aligns broadly with

The leak from the Journal of 10% across the board prompted selling the USD and buying of risk, but the details now provided have seen such flows reversed. The 10% is a minimum (see table below in pic). more to come Pic via Twitter This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here is a live feed of Trump’s tariff announcement. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Most major FX was slammed lower in the wake of Trump’s announcement of massive increases in tariffs. The moves have been pretty much retraced, FX recovering. EUR has done more than recover, its up above 1.09 as I update. USD/JPY, though, lost ground from above 150.25 (early highs) to below 148.00 and that has continued.

European Commission President von der Leyen says US tariffs a major blow to world economy ICYMI – China will raise the retail prices of gasoline and diesel from today RBC says rising global trade uncertainty may push RBA to turn more dovish UBS warns full tariffs could push US inflation to 5% Trump’s 54% tariffs

I’ve been posting the first page of the list, here is the full thing: Second page: Gotta say I have HATED being the pessimist on this trade war, I took Trump at his word and thought it would be ugly. It is. Risk markets are being offered as I update. This article was written by

I would advise none of the countries to retaliate as these numbers are high-end We can see if there is a different floor (from those announced) The mindset from Trump might be to let things settle for awhile Says he has no plans to travel to China I’m not a part of the negotiations so

ADP March US employment +155K vs +115K expected US February factory orders +0.6% vs +0.5% expected US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% — report Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight Elon Musk is likely to leave DOGE soon – report Mexican Pres.: It will not impose tit-for-tat

Federal Board Governor Kugler in Q&A now: Fed does not comment on administration policies but looks at how it will impact mandates for prices and jobs There may be reasons why tariffs have more prolonged effects Tariffs on aluminum for example effect almost every sector of the economy through supply chains, will take longer to

EURUSD moved higher during the U.S. session, pushing away from the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and briefly breaking above the swing area between 1.0848 and 1.0859. However, the upside momentum fizzled, and the pair has since fallen back within that zone. Despite the pullback, buyers still hold the advantage, with the pair remaining above

Canadian Prime Minister Carney Says Trump’s tariff announcement has preserved a number of important elements of our relationship Says we are going to fight these tariffs with countermeasures Says we will act with purpose and with force Earlier: Canadian dollar jumps as Canada exempted from new US tariffs CAD update: This article was written by

more to come Finally getting some substance from Trump after a long and winding introduction: 34% on imports from China 34% on imports from Taiwan 25% on all imports from South Korea, 26% from India, 20% from EU This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with higher rates for major trading partners, including 34% on China and 20% on the EU. ‘Risk’ was slammed lower, with yen and gold benefitting. EUR/USD trade under 1.0820 and has now recovered to above 1.0910 as I post. This is only going to be a

ES futures update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirms that the 34 percent tariff on China is ON TOP of the previous 20 percent. So that means the rate on China will be *54* percent when these tariffs take effect. This will hugely impact consumers in the US. Imagine a 50% price hike for washing machines and

Here is the table distributed as a summary of the new tariffs, below. baseline 10% tariffs take effect April 5 higher reciprocal rates will take effect April 9 the higher rates apply to about 60 countries Risk FX has been slapped back lower. EUR/USD hit 1.0920 and thereabouts, its back under 1.0820 now This article

Tariffs won’t go away after today but at some point, the market will shift all its attention to taxes and the budget. Trump has made many promises but one of them is to cut the deficit, and many members of Congress have staked their careers on that point. It’s going to be hard. Reuters report

Barclays expects today’s tariff announcement to significantly raise US trade barriers, pushing the average tariff rate to 15%. The bank anticipates global growth to decelerate in 2025 as a result, with consumers likely boosting savings amid higher prices and economic uncertainty. Key Points: Tariff Expectations: 30% tariffs on China, 10% on other countries in baseline

A report from Reuters says: Trump admin is considering revoking China de minimis exemption (it had done this, then delayed it) This was reported on by CNBC earlier The auto tariffs are evidently in the Federal Register. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Early reports (or scoops) said that Pres. Trump has told his inner circle that Elon musk will be stepping back in the coming weeks from his current role. Now White House Press Sec. is saying that the “scoop” is garbage. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican president Sheinbaum: It will not impose tit-for-tat tariffs Mexico will gradually comply with US water treaty after criticism from US State Department This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices are now trading higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,104.87 ▲ 114.91 (+0.27%) S&P 500: 5,647.43 ▲ 14.36 (+0.25%) Nasdaq Composite: 17,499.63 ▲ 49.74 (+0.29%) The small-cap Russell 2000 is also higher by 13.85 points or 0.69% at 2026.09. As a point of comparison, at

The New York Times is reporting that Amazon is said to be making a bid to buy TikTok in the US. TikTok has a Saturday deadline to change its ownership structure (which may have been extended. Trump wants control in the US and certainly does not want it shutdown). Shares of Amazon are now up

A member of the Pres. Trump administration has officially confirmed that Amazon as put in a bid to buy TikTok. Shares of Amazon are currently up $5.39 at $197.52. That is just off the high of $197.64. Amazon’s 200 day moving average is within sites at $200.31. Last week, the price moved above that moving

The USD is steady vs the EUR with only a 28 pip trading range from low to high (vs 83 pip average over the last month). The GBPUSD is higher (lower USD) and in the process moved back above its near converged 100/200 hour MAs. THe USDJPY is lower (lower USD) after a successful test

The forex market is a financial giant with more than $7.5 trillion in daily trading volumes. Though experienced traders navigate this complicated landscape with ease, new players in the market find themselves weighed down by intricacies of market action, liquidity structures, and trading mechanisms. In such a competitive market scenario, access to the best forex

BYD cuts prices in Japan – seeks to gain market share Goldman Sachs sees yen longs as the best hedge against US recession and tariff risks Federal Board Governor Kugler speaks on inflation and monetary policy making on Wednesday Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” unlikely to resolve U.S. tariff uncertainty European Central Bank big wheels Lagarde,

Prior was +77K Goods producing K vs +42K prior Service providing K vs +36K prior Pay gains for job stayers % vs 4.7% prior Pay growth for job changers % vs 6.7% prior This is a nice bounce back from a poor reading in February. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a big day in markets and I would encourage you to read my primer on what is really expected by the market today around tariff numbers. At the same time, I see some clues out there. Let’s dig in. Yesterday, a CNBC report highlighted some strategies: Blanket 20% tariffs Tiered system of three different

Today is ‘Liberation Day’ for Donald Trump and his team but it’s also a big one for Elon Musk and the company that made him famous. The consensus on Q1 deliveries is 377-380K and that will be a decline from 386,810 in the first quarter of 2024. The more-bearish analysts are at 350-355K and I

Inflation data from South Korea for March 2025 +0.2% m/m expected +0.18% (yes, to two decimal places, go figure), prior +0.3% +2.1% y/y +2% expected, prior also +2% The core reading is +1.9% y/y prior +1.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data today showed that Tesla deliveries plunged late in Q1 as Elon Musk hitched himself to Donald Trump and his DOGE campaign. The richest man in the world had said he would stay at the White House for months but now there are indications that he’s become a political liability. He tried to swing yesterday’s

Sky News editor Ed Conway reports — citing a source close to the White House — that there will be three tariff bands: 10%, 15% and 20%. The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade. I think this would be a problematic set of

The Amazon/TikTok news is giving the US stocks a bit of a boost. The S&P is up 24.74 points or 0.44%. The NASDAQ index is up 130 points or 0.74%. Meanwhile, yields have reversed from being down about 4– 6 basis points to now up about 4– 5 basis points. A snapshot of the US

The crypto fuss has been around since 2009, with the creation of the first token, but only started gaining much popularity between 2013 and 2017. By March 2010, the value of Bitcoin was less than $0.01, but by the end of 2013, it had surpassed $1200. When you look at Bitcoin in 2025, the value

Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter, according to a company release. The consensus on deliveries was 377-380K but the whisper number was around 355K. Those compared to 386,810 in the first quarter of 2024, which is a 13% decline. Shares of Tesla were down 2.3% prior to the report and fell further afterwards.

BYD has announced its first price cuts in the Japanese market, slashing the cost of its pure electric vehicles—including the popular Dolphin model—by around 300,000 yen (approximately US$2,000), according to Japanese media reports. The move comes as Japan’s EV market faces stagnant growth. BYD aims to boost its market share through more aggressive pricing, signaling

Holzmann is a hawk but lately he has been going along with the dovish message. Now, he’s taking a more-hawkish line despite the market pricing in an 80% chance of a cut on April 17. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF continues to trade within a well-defined range, with repeated attempts to break above the 0.8840–0.8848 zone (see red-numbered circles on the chart) failing to gain traction. Today’s failed push above resistance has kept sellers active, with the pair drifting back lower while remaining within the broader consolidation area. The downside move has brought

If we were to define the first quarter of 2025 in a single word, it would definitely be uncertainty. David Ingles, Chief Markets Editor at Bloomberg, just published a chart on his X account showing the United States Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index in the last 40 years. The chart speaks for itself. It went

This adds to the remarks from Lagarde and Rehn earlier. For the ECB, it’s now all about watching for Trump’s tariffs and what will take place after. That will shape their expectations for the next policy decision on 17 April. As things stand, traders are pricing in ~79% odds of a rate cut. This article

Major European indices are closing mostly lower, and well off low levels for the day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX -164.90 points or -0.73% at 22375.09. At session lows, the index is down -400.72 points France’s CAC -17.53 points or -0.22% at 7858.84. At session lows, the index is down 83.39

The one thing we all know is that Trump will deliver his big announcement later in what he has been calling as Liberation Day in the US. It will come at 2000 GMT (4pm ET) at the White House, where he will provide an overview of his plans to shake up the global trade regime

Jacqui Heinrich from Fox reports: Trump frustrated with Putin over “slow-rolling” ceasefire talks “Path forward” being discussed in ongoing negotiations Sanctions enforcement currently weak (rated “3 out of 10”) Baltic Sea interdictions of Russia’s shadow fleet (70% of illicit oil sales) seen as potential pressure point This post sort of exposes sanctions overall and how

As the clock ticks toward the stock market open, the EURUSD is breaking to the upside. Major US indices in pre-market trading are showing sharp declines S&P index -59.32 points Dow industrial average -342 points NASDAQ index down -255 points Traders will be nervous once again ahead of the tariff news at 4 PM ET.

Prior was -3341K Gasoline -1551K vs -1720K exp Distillates +264K vs -1013K Refinery utilization -1.0% vs +0.7% exp These are disappointing numbers but not a shock as the API numbers late yesterday showed: Crude +6037K Gasoline -1628K Distillates -11K Crude was flat ahead of the report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tech sector steadies while consumer cyclical stocks show promise The U.S. stock market today presents a stable landscape for tech stocks, while the consumer cyclical sector exhibits notable resilience. Meanwhile, mixed outcomes in financial services continue to highlight diverse market dynamics. 📈 Technology Sector: Stability in Sight The technology sector shows a relatively steady performance

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.3% This comes as US futures are also lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%. That said, we have seen investors fade tariff fears somewhat in the past two days. So, keep that in mind. But do also consider that there is plenty of money sitting on the

Tariffs aren’t good for the global economy. Inflation is very close to target. There is still a bit of work to do on inflation. Predictability is in very short supply at the moment, we simply don’t know what US deal will be with the rest of the world. There is a lot less excitement about

The USD got under some pressure last Friday following the ugly University of Michigan survey where consumer sentiment got revised lower and long-term inflation expectations higher. The market responded by increasing more aggressively the expectations for more easing from the Fed which triggered some short-term weakness in the greenback. That reaction was eventually reversed as

Bloomberg is reporting: EU is reportedly planning emergency measures in reaction to tariffs Working short-term support proposals, alongside plans to advance competitiveness and reforming key sectors Measures will be dependent on US announcement Although they are “emergency” measures, they make sense for the EU. The EU is not competitive. It is good news that they

Headlines: Major currencies see light changes as traders wait on Trump tariffs What are the interest rates expectations ahead of the tariffs announcement It’s the known unknowns that is gripping markets with uncertainty The first quarter depicted in a single chart ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs aren’t good for the global economy ECB’s Rehn: Trade protectionism is

Prior -2.0% Market index 243.6 vs 247.5 prior Purchase index 158.2 vs 155.8 prior Refinance index 710.4 vs 752.4 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.70% vs 6.71% prior Mortgage applications fell slightly again in the past week, owing to a decline in refinancing activity. That offset the slight increase in purchases activity last week, as the

Eurostoxx -0.6% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.6% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes as US futures are also lower as risk sentiment is observing more caution ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement later today. As a reminder, the announcement will be at 2000 GMT (4pm ET) so it

The AUDUSD is trading near a crucial inflection point as price approaches a key resistance zone between 0.6303 and 0.6319. This area hosts a powerful cluster of technical indicators, including the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart and the 100-day moving average. Just above, the swing area extending to 0.6336 serves as

1630 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks virtually on “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking” before the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Students and Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance 2025 Public Talk due at 1630 US Eastern time (2030 GMT) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US equities are down 25 points after the open, which is a halving of futures. The dip buyers have waded in over the past couple trading days as the weak hands are shaken out. I can see the argument for a better or a worse-than-expected announcement today. One thing I’m sure of is that this

Australian February building permits -0.3% m/m expected -1.5%, prior +6.3% +25.7% y/y prior +21.7% *** After some optimism on this earlier: Bessent says Trump will announce a maximum for tariffs, countries can then bring them down that saw AUD trade a little higher, topping just over 0.6290 a few hours after, it has subsided. All

The USDCAD extended higher on Tuesday, briefly breaking above the March 20 high at 1.4403 and reaching a peak of 1.4414. However, the rally was short-lived. Headlines suggesting tariffs would be less severe than expected triggered a sharp reversal, pushing the pair back below key technical levels — namely, the 100-bar (1.4341) and 200-bar (1.4323)

Prior was +1.7% (revised to +1.8%) Factory orders ex transport +0.4% vs +0.3% prior Durable goods orders: Durable goods orders 1.0% vs 0.9% preliminary Durable goods ex trans 0.7% vs 0.7% preliminary. 0.1% last month Durable goods ex defense 0.8% versus 0.8% preliminary. +3.7% last month Nondefense capital ex air for February -0.2% versus -0.3%

There’s been lots of coverage for the US NFP report coming up on Friday but it might not matter much for the market. All the data by definition is backward looking. On the other hand, the market is a forward looking machine. This is something that all the best traders in the world will tell

The noise around tariffs continues as we await the official announcement at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT. The French Government Spokeswoman Primas said that France expects “powerful” tariffs in the range of 20-25%. Although this might not be the catalyst, the USD caught a bid with risk assets turning lower. The EURUSD price action in the past

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook. The ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path. Disinflation is on track and growth outlook has weakened. Rehn spoke already yesterday and he’s not adding anything new here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

There’s not much happening in European morning trade so far as markets are gripped by the prospect of Trump’s big announcement later in the day. The lack of any meaningful data releases on the session isn’t helping either, making for a slower and static day of trading thus far. The dollar is mostly little changed,

The NASDAQ index traded up as high as 207.30 points. He is now around nine points or 0.06% at 17309. The S&P index was up as much is 38.72 points. It is now down -15.04 points or -0.27% at 5596. The NASDAQ index is retesting its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October

Financial regulation provides the ethical and legal framework for financial operations. Regulators act to protect traders’ best interests against bad actors, ensuring they do not risk losing their capital to fraudsters. At the end of 2024, the US Federal Trade Commission pointed out that digital fraud accounted for losses of over $47.8 billion, up 15%.

If we look at the USDCAD daily chart, we can clearly see that uncertainty has been the name of the game. There’s been lots of volatility and short term trading opportunities yeah, but overall, the pair has been stuck in a range since December. Yesterday, we got a report from CNBC citing one official saying

Bloomberg reports that “several branches of China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for firms that are looking to invest in the US, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.” The article adds that

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke in a Fox TV interview: Hard data on US economy still pretty solid If can get past this period of uncertainty, underlying strength of economy is still there Soft data looks very different from hard data Confidence is almost cratering Problem of tariffs is they are

The U.S. 10-year yield is down nearly 10 basis points on the day, trading at 4.148%. Earlier, it dipped to 4.133%, just shy of the 2025 low of 4.108% set in early March. The recent rebound in yields peaked on March 27 at 4.40%, briefly surpassing the 50% retracement level of the February-to-March decline at

Today we don’t have much on the agenda in terms of notable data releases other than the US ADP report. The US ADP is expected at 105K vs. 77K prior. The last report was softer than expected with the agency noting that “policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs

Bloomberg (gated) have the info from Goldman Sachs. In brief: Goldman Sachs expects the Japanese yen to rise to the low 140s against the U.S. dollar this year Says its a prime hedge against growing concerns over U.S. economic weakness and trade tensions Says yen tends to perform well when U.S. equities and real yields

That’s a downgrade to their previous forecast of 0.7%. Meanwhile, they see the economy growing by 1.4% in 2026. Overall, that points to a slower recovery but a better outlook at least considering the government’s spending package. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

tradeCompass – Nasdaq Futures Trade Idea & Analysis Today (Tariff Event Edition) Current Price at Time of Analysis: 19,528 In today’s tradeCompass analysis, we’re taking a more tactical and strategic approach compared to the usual daily map. If you’ve been following our reports, you’re familiar with our standard structure: bullish above, bearish below. However, today’s

Fundamental Overview Gold’s rally stalled this week as the market participants shave been waiting for the US reciprocal tariffs plan announcement due today at 4 pm ET. The precious metal has been on a steady uptrend lately as traders have been finding shelter amid stagflationary risks. Today’s event will trigger huge moves across the board.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 76 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 63 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 53 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 58 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 72 bps

Guidelines were jointly issued by China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission to align financial services with national innovation goals: Targeted financial support: Emphasis on early-stage, long-term, and smaller-scale investments in core and advanced technologies, especially for small and micro-sized tech firms. Five-year goal:

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be answering question in the Diet from 1010 Tokyo time: 0110 GMT 2110 US Eastern time Ueda has not strayed much from his script which is: if BoJ economic and price targets are achieved (higher wages and inflation in a nutshell) then monetary policy will be tightened He is

While broader markets might be distracted by Trump’s tariffs and Liberation Day, it’s good to be reminded that geopolitical tensions are rising involving Taiwan and China. This is the second day of intense military drills and the Chinese military have said that they are simulating strikes on ground and maritime targets towards the east of

US March ISM manufacturing 49.0 vs 49.5 expected JOLTs February job openings 7.568M vs 7.616M estimate US February construction spending +0.7% vs +0.3% expected Trump is evaluating three tariff proposals – report The White House is watching how countries respond to tariff threats – report White House Press Sec.: Trump to take historic action to

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Depending on size of U.S. tariff hikes, it could have big impact on each country’s trade activity U.S. tariffs likely to push up U.S. inflation near-term, but could weigh on U.S. prices longer-term by cooling U.S. economic growth Another big question is how U.S. tariffs could affect household, corporate sentiment,

I think one of the clearer trades on Wednesday after Trump announces tariffs could be gold. If tariffs are lower than expected, then we could see some of the safety bid in gold come out. That said, it’s still tough to evaluate what is priced in and what level of retaliation the US is prepared

It’s finally here. For weeks on end, Trump has called this Liberation Day whereby we’re going a new shift in the global trade paradigm. The main thing to watch is tariffs of course but it is still unclear as to what exactly Trump is planning. Reports are suggesting that Trump and his team are still

I was in Toronto on Monday to speak with BNNBloomberg about the playbook for trading the tariff news on Wednesday. I dove into what’s priced in and how to react to the initial headlines, which are now expected at 4 pm on Wednesday but could leak out sooner. I argued that we are at maximum

GBPUSD has seen choppy, two-way price action today. Earlier in the U.S. session, the pair dipped below yesterday’s low of 1.2885, reaching a session low (and new low for the week) at 1.2878. However, as London and European traders exited for the day and optimism around potential tariff relief emerged, the pair rebounded. That rally,

There is just one to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD closer to the 1.0800 level. The focus in markets today is on Liberation Day in the US, so that should keep trading sentiment on edge until we get to the announcement at 2000 GMT. As such,

Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” may do little to ease the deep uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, warns Ethan Harris, former head of global economics at Bank of America and now an independent Fed watcher. Trump speaks at 4pm US Eastern time (2000gmt) on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. Harris argues that the event is likely to

The Wall Street Journal report that the US Treasury has prepared another option for Trump to consider: across the board tariff increase on a subset of nations would not be as high as 20% The Journal cite “people with knowledge of the plans” for the new info. Pardon my surprise, but a totally new plan

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The European Central Bank meet next week, it appears there are moves towards a pause in their cutting cycle: ECB’s Rehn: An April ECB pause is possible if data indicates something else ECB sources: More members ready to accept an April pause in rates We may get some more hints today: 1030/0630 Keynote speech by

Canada to avoid countertariffs that risk Canadian jobs, price hikes – Globe and Mail, citing two federal trade advisers. Canada won’t impose retaliatory tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley expects a cooling in U.S. job growth for March, with payroll gains softening and layoffs starting to show in federal employment. While wage growth remains steady, the risks are skewed toward a weaker labor market narrative. Key Points: Payrolls: Forecast at 130k, down from 151k in February and well below the 6-month average

Crude oil futures are settling down $0.28 or -0.39% at $71.20. The high for the day reached $72.10. The low was at $71.03. Technically, the price remains between its 100-day moving average below at $70.65 and its 200 day moving average above at $72.69. The 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2025 high

Reports that Bessent told lawmakers today that tomorrow’s tariffs are a “cap” the amounts announced tomorrow are the highest the tariffs will go counties could then take steps to bring the tariffs down US Treasury Secretary Bessent This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Analysts at ING believe markets are underestimating how far the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could eventually raise interest rates, citing signs of structural change in Japan’s economic landscape—including sustained wage growth and rising asset prices. In a note this week, ING argued that while the near-term policy rate may top out around 1.25%, the BoJ’s

Deutsche Bank has cautioned that markets remain in the dark when it comes to assessing the true impact of potential U.S. tariffs. While investors are broadly pricing in 50% tariffs on Chinese goods and just under 10% on imports from other countries, the bank argues that the real consequences will hinge on what happens next.

Christopher Kent is Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) at the Reserve Bank of Australia. he is speaking on: “The RBA’s Monetary Policy Implementation System – Some Important Updates” at the KangaNews Debt Capital Market Summit, Sydney Outlines some changes to repo rates, but assures us that the changes have no implications for the stance of the

In last month’s fresh set of FOMC forecasts, the median on PCE inflation was 2.7% with a range of 2.5-3.4%. They may need a re-think. Ed Bradford highlights that one-year inflation swaps are now above 3.3% and already at the high end of the Fed’s forecasts. Now much of that is pricing in an uncertain

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Christopher Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities: says he remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for equities cautions investors against overlooking the potential fallout from the April 2 tariff announcement He noted: “We remain constructive on equities longer term given: (1) potential monetary stimulus (i.e., 75+ bps of 2025 Fed rate cuts)

Via oilprice.com: That headline is build in stocks is quite something, especially given a draw was expected. Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.1mn barrels Distillates -1.0 mn bbls Gasoline -1.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage

The White House press secretary is saying: Pres. Trump to take historic action to improve American competitiveness On tariffs says president is always open to taking calls from foreign countries Pres. Trump is currently with the tariff team now. Reciprocal terrorist going into effect on April 3 Pres. Trump is made up his mind Trump

The New Zealand dollar is barely moved on the data – the impacts on the currency are mainly coming from Trump tariff developments. We get the next lot of tariffs at 4pm US Eastern time on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The leaders of Mexico and Canada evidently spoke today and it’s not clear they’re teaming up like Japan, South Korea and China but they’re clearly co-ordinating or sharing ideas. The Canadian statement said: They discussed the importance of building investment and trade relationships between the two countries Plan to fight ‘unjustified’ trade action Both are

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 is lower at -3.7% versus -2.8% previously. The gold adjusted rate is down to -1.4% from -0.5% previously. This is the low water mark for the growth. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter

The earlier CNBC report I highlighted appeared to help turn around sentiment in equity markets today in a big way. The bond market has bounced much less but in FX, we’re seeing some strong bids in the Canadian dollar. Deliberations are still ongoing about what path they will take of the three outlined earlier. “One

The data due today relevant to major FX is of lower tier only. The Korean CPI will be of interest to the won traders, its expected to show a small dip m/m and steady for the y/y. As an aside, you’ll see the TD-MI inflation gauge listed for Australia – that data was published earlier

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This is no surprise as it looks like OPEC is on autopilot unless prices drop enough. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview: Tech Soars, Healthcare Stumbles Technology Sector: The technology sector is displaying impressive resilience today. Microsoft (MSFT) has surged by 0.65% and Google (GOOG) by 0.93%, indicating robust investor confidence in tech giants. This momentum could be driven by favorable earnings reports or innovative developments, providing a silver lining in an otherwise mixed market.

Come what may, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing to see some exemptions or delays being made in the weeks ahead. That will likely come from several rounds of negotiations after the announcement from Trump tomorrow, first and foremost. But we’ll see. Staying on the UK, Goldman Sachs just said that it is cutting

Yesterday, USDCHF buyers made a push higher, breaking above the ceiling near 0.8848. However, on two separate occasions, bullish momentum faded just ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (drawn from the February–March decline) at 0.8862. The high reached 0.8855 before stalling, and the inability to extend further prompted a downside rotation. In early trading today,

Reuters reports that eight members of OPEC+ that have been making voluntary oil output cuts will meet on Thursday. That’s a curious one. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reports overnight of the Bank of Japan trimming Japanese Government Bond purchases. In summary …. BOJ to reduce super-long bond purchases under QT plan: First cut to super-long bonds: BOJ will reduce purchases of 10–25-year JGBs for the first time since starting quantitative tightening in 2023. Monthly bond buying cut: April–June purchases will drop by

March final manufacturing was 50.3 Flash manufacturing estimate was 49.8 Confidence in the outlook for business activity softened Employment was unchanged in March, following a four- month run of growth Full report Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The strong start to the year for US manufacturers has faltered in March.

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

We are going to be very deliberate in terms of the measures we take to fight for Canada We will put in place retaliatory measures if there are additional measures against Canada on Wednesday This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China Caixin March Manufacturing PMI solid jump higher than February, and better than expected. 51.2 expected 51.1 and prior 50.8 The official data was an OK result also: China March official Manufacturing PMI 50.5 (expected of 50.5) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Markets are anxious and we just saw a move lower. The CNBC report that a 20% blanket tariff was “less likely” than a tiered system of 3 diffent rates, adn a country by country rate and that chips, pharma and other tariffs would be announced later, seems to have helped. Canada and Mexico tariffs are

Prior was -0.2% (revised to -0.5%) The headline is a bit better here but the beat is virtually erased by the downward revision to the prior. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 47.8 Steepest drop in new orders since May 2020, continuing a sharp fall from February Firms remained outright pessimistic about their expected level of production in 12 months’ time, with output typically forecast to be lower than present in 12 months’ time Production, purchasing and employment were all reduced noticeably Commenting on the

At the start of March, I highlighted the seasonals for the month and one of them was yen weakness. Despite all the turmoil, USD/JPY rose about 200 pips in the month. Even AUD/JPY managed a gain in the month. Another one was oil, and though it started soft, it managed to gain on the month

Fundamental Overview The USD got under some pressure last Friday following the ugly University of Michigan survey where consumer sentiment got revised lower and long-term inflation expectations higher. The market responded by increasing more aggressively the expectations for more easing from the Fed which triggered some short-term weakness in the greenback. Today, we got some

Prior was 46.5 Key findings: Germany Manufacturing PMI at 31-month high. Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 36-month high. Employment, stocks and prices continue falling Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Growth has been a foreign concept for German industry for almost two

The mood in equities is worsening but it’s not helping the US dollar. The market is increasingly concerned that the US administration is shooting itself in the foot with a poor set of tariff policies that will chase money out of the country. Increasingly, market participants are looking for shelter in bonds and that has

The Washington Post now reports that the European Union is weighing whether to hit the big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs. This is weighing a bit on the market and I’m not sure why since it’s an old news. The Financial Times talked about this back in February. It’s clear that you

Hidden in all the other worries, the US has re-positioned air craft carriers in the Middle East and has some bombers in the UAE. Trump gave Iran a 60-day deadline for demands around its nuclear program and reports say Iran didn’t respond positively. Now we have a bit of a standoff. This article was written

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/JPY in the region of 150.00-05. The pair caught a bounce late yesterday on a rebound in the risk mood but that was arrested near the figure level with the 100-hour moving average at 150.21 also limiting

Outlook -11.3 vs +4.6 prior Revenue +1.3 vs +8.2 prior Employment +2.2 vs -0.1 prior Six months outlook -0.6 vs +13.3 prior Six months revenue +30.9 vs +43.9 prior Capex +11.9 vs +20.3 prior Comments in the report: Management of companies and enterprises We are a bank, our net interest margin last year was down

Prior 49.6 That’s a disappointing reading as Swiss manufacturing activity falls yet again in March, marking a 27th straight month of contraction. Procure notes that “more than half of the industrial companies surveyed expect an increase in protectionist measures over the next 12 months”. Here’s the breakdown in activity for last month: This article was

We do not necessarily want to retaliate But if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to do so and we will use it Will assess US announcements carefully to give calibrated response All instruments are on the table for countermeasures We have the power to push back against US tariffs At this stage,

It’s a big day. There were reports last week that the White House would begin informing countries of their tariff rates today, so that could begin to leak out ahead of tomorrow’s big Liberation Day tariff announcement. A report today floated a near-universal 20% rate but hopefully that’s a smokescreen ahead of a much lower

ECB’s Rehn: An April ECB pause is possible if data indicates something else EU weighs targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs – WAPO Trump aides draft tariff plans as some experts warn of economic damage – WAPO ECB’s Escriva: We’re getting closer to the 2% inflation goal The positive risk sentiment

An April ECB pause is possible if data indicates something else. It is important that we do not pre-commit to any rate path. Growth outlook is still subdued, risks are to the downside. Rehn doesn’t have much conviction evidently as he said just a couple of hours ago that if the data were to verify

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged at 4.10% in its April 2025 policy decision, as widely expected. The central bank statement maintained a cautious tone, noting that underlying inflation is moderating but emphasizing that returning inflation to target remains its top priority. Policymakers reiterated that monetary policy remains restrictive and

CNBC’s Megan Cassella said deliberations on exactly what Wednesday’s announcement (scheduled for 4 pm ET) will look like She said there are “three main options” that Trump is looking at: Blanket 20% tariffs Tiered system of three different rates Country-by-country rates One official cited by CNBC said the first option was “less likely than the

Fox reports that Elon Musk plans to step down from Doge at the end of May Japan Prime Minister Ishiba: need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation US Senator to introduce bill allowing Americans to invest their retirement funds in crypto China Caixin March Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (vs. expected 51.1 and prior

Prior month 7.774M revised to 7.762M JOLTs job openings Quits rate vacancy rate 4.5% versus 4.7% last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Tariff concerns tied to tomorrow’s “Liberation Day” are keeping upward pressure on USDCAD, and the technicals are aligning with that narrative. After finding strong support late last week near the 100-day moving average at 1.4269 after breaking below and failing —it is also a key swing area dating back to December—the pair rebounded sharply. That

The major US indices are ending the day with mixed results, but were down for the month of March: A snapshot of the major indices at the end of day shows mixed results: Dow industrial average rose 417.86 points or 1.00% at 42001.76 S&P index rose 30.91 point or 0.55% at 5611.85. NASDAQ index fell

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In case you missed it, Trump said overnight that he’s “going to be nice” on tariffs, adding that in some cases tariffs will be substantially lower. Of course the back and forth of the past weeks can’t give any conviction and this could just be noise ahead of the plan unveiling tomorrow which is scheduled

Prior was 49.5 Prices paid vs 65.0 expected Employment vs 47.6 prior New orders vs 48.6 prior Production vs 50.7 prior Imports vs 52.6 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We’re getting closer to the 2% inflation goal. Recent price data confirms disinflation process. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

These exercises are meant as an intimidation. Indeed, Xinhua reports that they are a ‘warning’ to separatist forces. Starting April 1, China’s PLA Eastern Theater Command will conductt joint military drills around Taiwan island, involving the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force. Exercises focus on combat readiness, sea & air strikes, and strategic blockade

German DAX futures +0.5% UK FTSE futures +0.4% There is some catching up to the late rebound in US stocks yesterday. That as European indices closed down by over 1% for the most part. However, the mood is balanced out slightly by declines in US futures today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% currently as

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Japan’s GPIF (world’s largest government pension investment fund) announcement late Monday: Portfolio composition unchanged: Japan’s GPIF will maintain its current allocation — equally split between domestic stocks, domestic bonds, foreign stocks, and foreign bonds — through 2025 and beyond. Return target raised: The fund increased its mid-term investment return target to 1.9% above nominal wage

Elon Musk plans to step down from Doge at the end of May. There had been hints on this from Trump and Musk. End of May had been mentioned in an interview last week but it appears to have solidified. Musk’s immersion in divisive politics has impacted TSLA, his departure from DOGE will be welcome

MofComm says representatives from Australia New Zealand Brasil Agetine Uruguay USA Chines domestic producers at hearing. Nothing further This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We’re gradually gaining more confidence But we’re not 100% confident, it’s very difficult to feel 100% confident At the moment, it seems prudent to wait for more data to make sure inflation tracks our forecasts This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After being gripped by fear, dip buyers managed to wrestle back some optimism in trading yesterday. Tech shares lagged but it was definitely a win even if the Nasdaq closed down by just 0.1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 caught a bounce once again following a brief test under the 5,500 level. Is it just month-end

Prior +2.3% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.6% The drop in core annual inflation is the main thing here and this definitely bolsters chances for the ECB to cut rates later this month. The market pricing shows a ~76% probability and we’ll just need to wait out the tariffs situation in the

Japan final manufacturing PMI for March 48.4, a one year low: preliminary was 48.3 prior was 49.0 Comments from the report, bolding is mine: “Japan’s manufacturing sector slipped deeper into decline at the end of the first quarter of 2025, with the headline PMI hitting a one-year low. Indices for output and new orders fell

As Liberation Day approaches tomorrow, The Washington Post reports that the White House is floating 20% tariffs in response to similar measures from U.S. trading partners. President Trump is expected to address the matter during a 3 PM ET event in the Rose Garden. While the president is known for shifting positions abruptly, this move

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior +0.4% Slight delay in the release by the source. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 6.2% The resilience that is seen in the euro area jobless rate number has been quite surprising. Not least with the manufacturing recession in Germany over the past year or so. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Washington Post is reporting that White House aides have drafter a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on at least most imports to the US, citing three people familiar with the matter. It adds that White House advisers cautioned that several options are on the table and no final decision has been made.

After a brief moment of panic at yesterday’s market open, the S&P 500 turned around and started to erase the losses accrued since last Friday. There was no clear catalyst for the move other than the usual suspects like quarter-end flows. Anyway, we got some positive news as Trump said overnight that he’s “going to

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Crude oil futures are settling at $71.48. That’s up $2.12 or 3.05%. The high price reached $71.83. The low price extended to $68.81. The move to the upside took the price above its 100-day moving average at $70.66, and also its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2025 high (on January 15 to

UK BRC Shop Price Index for March 2024: -0.4% y/y expected –0.4% and prior –0.7% British Retail Consortium data. via Reuters: BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said the introduction on April 6 of higher social security contributions for employers – which were announced in finance minister Rachel Reeves’ first budget in October – would combine

Have to wait and see what the data says Not just inflation but also other developments like labour market and US tariffs We’re not endorsing the market path on future rate cuts Our job is to be a little more cautious We’re in a position where we can watch and wait to see what happens

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox News confirms the time for Trump’s April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement – 3pm US Eastern time. 1900 GMT This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 47.4 Key findings: Sharper decrease in output volumes Sustained reduction in headcounts amid signs of excess capacity Charges up after six months of discounting and despite softer cost pressures Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italy’s manufacturing sector remains in the grip of crisis,

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Fox with the info, citing two administration sources familiar with the tariff discussions: Trump is still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs. Sources say he has been presented with “multiple” tariff plans. Say also that Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan he takes until right before April 2nd,

Prior 4.10% Underlying inflation is moderating Cautious about the outlook Need to be confident that inflation progress will continue Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced Returning inflation sustainably to target remains the highest priority Monetary policy remains restrictive The continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there

Prior 49.7 A decline in new orders weighed on Spain’s manufacturing sector last month, resulting in a marginal contraction. Output showed an increase though and employment levels also improved. So, there are some positive takeaways. HCOB notes that: “The HCOB PMI slightly deteriorated in March due to decreasing order volumes and the reduction of inventory

Rising inflation expectations are a concern. Inflation expectations remain anchored. Slack is opening in the UK labour market. Disinflation continues to be underway. Wage growth is above what our models can explain. Worried supply is weaker than expected. I am more worried about supply than demand. It’s possible people are now more sensitive to inflation.

It’s going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact. Suppliers are emboldened, say they will have to pass on higher prices. Consumers are frustrated, exhausted, and tired of paying high prices Not convinced higher prices will be passed on, or that there won’t be inflation. To cut rates requires confidence on

Gold Futures Analysis – tradeCompass Levels for Today Gold futures are currently trading at $3,160.2, hovering right around today’s Point of Control (POC) — a key price zone where the most trading volume has occurred so far. This area often acts as a pivot and a battle zone between buyers and sellers. Gold Futures Trade

Pres. Trump on Truth Social: Yemens;s Iran backed Houthis have been decimated by strikes over the past two weeks US attacks will continue until Houthis are no longer threat to freedom of navigation This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave its cash rate on hold today: CBA expects RBA on hold this week, with a more dovish tone Poll shows expectations are for the Reserve Bank of Australia to stay on hold Westpac sees April RBA meeting as ‘dead rubber’, still eyes May rate cut Goldman

Prior was 46.9 Key Findings: Manufacturing PMI falls to 17-month low Business optimism at weakest level since November 2022 Steeper drops in output, new orders and new export business Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “March proved to be another tough month for UK manufacturers. Output contracted at the quickest pace

U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville plans to introduce legislation that would permit Americans to invest their retirement funds in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. proposed bill aims to expand investment options for retirement savings, reflecting growing interest in digital assets Info via Binance This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US major indices close mixed but are down for the month of March/down for the year Fed’s Barkin: Its going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact. Fed’s Williams: Its early days in figuring out impact of tariffs Crude oil settles at $71.48 Trump: Yeman’s Iran backed Houthis have been

Trump is due to announce his next tariff hit on April 2. He is still acting all coy: maybe tomorrow night, Wednesday you will see tariff detail we are going to be nice very comparison to other countries in some cases maybe substantially lower Earlier: Reports that Trump won’t decide on tariffs until the morning

Prior 47.6 It’s a modest improvement amid better fortunes in France and Germany especially. Of note, the manufacturing output index rose to 50.5 – crossing the threshold for growth. The reading is a 34-month high, with this being the first monthly rise in output in two years. That said, it is just a marginal one

In the European session, the focus will be on the Eurozone CPI report. We will also get the final PMI readings but they shouldn’t change much for the market pricing unless we get big revisions. In the American session, the attention will switch to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US Job Openings data.

Eurostoxx +0.9% Germany DAX +1.0% France CAC 40 +0.8% UK FTSE +1.0% Spain IBEX +0.7% Italy FTSE MIB +0.9% This follows the late resurgence in US indices yesterday, which saw the Dow close up by 1% higher and S&P 500 up by 0.5%. For now, US futures are also creeping higher with S&P 500 futures

How to Build a Portfolio That Lasts — The Power of Focus and Balance Creating a portfolio you can trust — one that grows, weathers storms, and doesn’t keep you up at night. “The goal isn’t to own everything — it’s to own enough of the right things.” Why Portfolio Construction Matters A portfolio isn’t

Prior 45.8 It’s a marked improvement but the French industry is still largely struggling since last year. There were still reductions in both output and new orders and until that changes, it will be tough to see things turn around meaningfully. HCOB notes that: “France’s industry is failing to break out of recession. Despite a

How to Build Investing Discipline Over Time — Turning Habits into Wealth Why consistency beats brilliance in investing, and how small, repeatable actions build serious wealth. “Discipline isn’t about motivation. It’s about building habits that make good investing decisions automatic.” Why Investing Discipline Matters More Than Talent You don’t need to be a genius to

Bank of Japan Q1 2025 Tankan report March big manufacturers index +12 (Reuters poll: 12) June big manufacturers index seen at +12 (Reuters poll: 9) March big non-manufacturers index +35 (Reuters poll: 33) June big non-manufacturers index seen at +28 (Reuters poll: 29) March small manufacturers index +2 (Reuters poll: -1) June small manufacturers index

Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4% expected, prior 2.5% Job-to-applicant ratio 1.24 expected 1.26, prior 1.26 Earlier posts on Japan today: ICYMI – Japan’s GPIF will maintain its current allocation ICYMI – BOJ will reduce purchases of 10–25-year JGBs for the first time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

An official from the Bank of Japan commenting on the Tanakn report: major producers sentiment worsened due to increased expenses, declining foreign demand, and consequences of each country’s trade policy broad range of non-manufacturers saw business conditions worsen 3 months ahead due largely to concerns over rising costs Report is here: BoJ Q1 2025 Tankan

Politico reports that Republican senators Collins and Tillis are poised to follow Rand Paul in joining Democrates in a vote to block blanket tariffs on Canada. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Monday that she plans to back the resolution led by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) that would terminate the national emergency Trump declared last month,

Trump is still going on: settled on tariff plan Earlier: Trump says ‘going to be nice’ on tariffs Also comments on: Russia Ukraine North Korea TokTok Le Pen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Why Beginner Real Estate Investors Should Usually Start in Their Own Backyard How knowing your local market gives you an edge — and why proximity often beats complexity in real estate investing. “In real estate investing, what you know and can see often matters more than what looks good on paper.” Rich Snippet Candidate: For

What Makes a Stock Worth Holding for the Long Run How to recognize businesses you can trust to compound wealth — and why most stocks aren’t built that way. “Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.” — Warren Buffett Why Long-Term Stocks Are Rare — But Powerful Not every

There is a lot of uncertainty on the global outlook at the moment Inflation pressures remain, so need to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves Did not explicitly discuss a rate cut today Did talk a little about downside risks, including those globally It was a consensus decision to keep the cash rate

A federal judge in California has agreed to delay the Trump administration’s move to terminate the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of 350,000 Venezuelan migrants in the U.S. migrants were slated to lose their work permits and deportation protections next week judge said the action appeared to be “predicated on negative stereotypes” about Venezuelans and “motivated

Australian retail sales in February +0.2% m/m expected +0.3%, prior +0.3% and for the y/y up 3.6% Retail sales rise in food categories – food and eating out. Demand for household goods falling. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Will compile measures to push up Japan’s minimum wage by May We need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation, which is imminent task and key growth strategy for Japan We will deploy all available means to broaden wage hikes across country Ishiba wants the wage gains to support the Bank of Japan

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump signed an executive order establishing the United States investment accelerator An office within the Department of Commerce will aim to facilitate and accelerate investments above USD 1bln in the US This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Marcah 2025, final: 52.1 preliminary was 52.6 prior was 50.4 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Williams on Yahoo! News says: it’s early days in figuring out impact of tariffs There is still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs, details matter Need to watch data to measure impact of tariffs Full impact of tariffs can play out over long horizon. Tariffs will impact prices Consumers goods should see quick pass

Headlines via Reuters – Reuters citing a letter it has seen: Iran complains to UN about ‘reckless, belligerent’ Trump remarks Iran says Trump remarks a flagrant violation of international law, core principles of UN Charter Iran says deeply regrettable, concerning that US ‘wields military power as its primary tool of coercion to advance political, geopolitical

The major US yields across the curve are trading at session highs. The shorter end is no modestly positive, while the longer end is still down but only modestly. The snapshot currently shows: 2-year yield 3.909%, unchanged 5-year yield 3.982%, +0.4 basis points. 10-year yield 4.249%, -0.6 basis points 30-year yield 4.619%, -1.2 basis points.

US major indices recovered and traded near session highs. The S&P index is now trading in positive territory after trading down as much as 92 points at session lows. The Dow industrial average is trading up 263 points or 0.63% after trading down as much as 435 points. The NASDAQ index is still negative by

German inflation continues to be a bit of a sticking point for the ECB since last year. While headline annual inflation continues to keep closer to 2%, it is still taking some time for core prices to converge towards the target. In February, the latter was seen at 2.7%. That still showed some easing from

The day has been known, but with the so-called “Liberatation Day” ahead on April 2 where Pres. Trump’s administration will “hit essentially all countries with tariffs” in response to their tariffs, the global markets are bracing for slower growth and lower earnings as a result. The futures are implying a lower opening across the board.

Prior +1.1% In annual terms, import prices were seen up 3.6% in February and that’s the highest year-on-year increase since January 2023. Looking at the monthly breakdown, there were increases in prices for consumer goods (+0.3%) and intermediate goods (+0.5%). The prices for capital goods were unchanged compared to January. And excluding energy prices, import

The major US indices struggled with a slow start to the new trading week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows” German DAX, -1.33% France’s CAC -1.58% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.88% Spain’s Ibex -1.31% Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.77% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House press secretary says the Pres. Trump is committed to the tariffs. When asked about tariff exemptions for farmers, the Press Secretary said There are no exemptions at this time Any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff The goal is country based tariffs It matters how countries

Geopolitics: US sanctions six Chinese and Hong Kong officials over actions to road home comes autonomy In other geopoliiical new, the Jerusalem Post is saying that Egypt’s military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula is a potential violation of the peace agreement: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 66.2k Net consumer credit £1.4 billion vs £1.2 billion expected Prior £1.7 billion Individual net borrowing of mortgage debt fell in February by £0.9 billion, down to £3.3 billion. That follows a £0.8 billion increase in January. But the annual growth of net mortgage lending was little changed, seen at 1.9%. Besides that, the

Technology and Semiconductor Sectors Struggle Today’s market heatmap presents a challenging landscape for the technology sector, with significant declines noted. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) tumbles 2.76%, while Nvidia (NVDA) leads a steep dive in semiconductors, plummeting 4.93%. Investors appear cautious, perhaps due to emerging industry-specific concerns or broader market jitters. Consumer Cyclical and Defensive Sectors Show

Blomberg is reporting that ECB sources are saying that more members are ready to accept an April pause in rates. The EURUSD – which fell below it 100 hour MA and below the 1.0800 – is trading back higher. The price reached 1.08158. The 200 hour moving averages just above at 1.08182. This article was

PU Prime, a globally recognized online trading platform, has announced its partnership with the Argentine Football Association as an Official Regional Sponsor. The partnership, commencing on March 17, 2025, underscores PU Prime’s commitment to excellence and innovation, aligning with one of the most iconic institutions in world football. This collaboration reflects the shared values between

Tech shares are leading the declines with Nasdaq futures also marked down by 1.1% currently. In case you missed it: Trump weighs broader, higher tariffs. Across-the-board hike of up to 20% considered The 2 April deadline draws closer and Trump will surely want to make a show of it, having already labelled it as Liberation

The week will begin slowly on Monday, with no significant scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Tuesday, the highlight will be the RBA monetary policy announcement, along with the final manufacturing PMI for both the eurozone and the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. will release the JOLTS job openings report. On Wednesday, the U.S.

The DAX has been under strong selling pressure after Trump placed 25% tariffs on auto imports last week. The index is now down more than 6% from the all-time highs and it’s testing a key trendline. This is where we will likely see some dip-buyers stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline. The

Prior month -8.3 March manufacturing index -16.3 versus -8.3 last month. Lower Output index 6 versus -9.1 in February. Shipments 6.1 versus 5.6 last month New orders -0.1 versus -3.5 last month. Higher Employment -4.6 versus -0.7 last month. Lower Prices paid for raw materials 37.7 versus 35.0 last month. Higher Prices received 6.3 versus

Tesla China’s announcing a three year interest rate loan for their refreshed model why. They also offer five year interest free loans for model 3 Rearwheel Dr., long-range trim before April 30. The company is fighting a tumble in sales in China.In China, where Shenzhen-based BYDis the biggest-selling EV brand, Tesla’s sales have fallen 49%.

The AUDUSD chart is displaying a clear bearish trend, with the pair falling away from the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6388. This indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend, and traders should be aware of the key levels that may influence price action. The price is now below the trend line

Be aware: Pres. Trump will be signing Executive Orders at the top of the hour. The details of the executive orders are unsure but there will be some press there. With tariffs to go into effect on April, if there is Q&A it will be on that. Markets will be focused on any hints of

FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new analysis examining the impact of the US government’s decision to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This move, announced by President Donald Trump in March 2025, officially recognizes Bitcoin as a reserve asset and signals a shift in financial strategy. The FBS analysis explores market reactions, historical

The USDJPY is trading back higher and in the process is retesting its 200 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart at 149.772. The price is finding some selling interest against that level. The price is also testing the underside of a broken channel trendline near the area. It would take a move back

That sees USD/JPY undo its advance from last week as it now falls to below 149.00, down 0.7% on the day. This comes as bonds are keeping bid amid the more defensive risk mood in markets. 10-year Treasury yields are down nearly 7 bps to 4.184%. That is nearly its lowest levels in three weeks.

USDCHF remains caught in a consolidative range after failing to sustain a downside break below the key swing area near 0.8794–0.8800. The pair dipped beneath this support in the Asian Pacific session after a number of tests in the area last week. However, the break quickly rebounded, highlighting the level’s importance as a defensive line

New Zealand ANZ Business survey. Confidence 57.5% prior 58.4% Activity 48.6% prior 45.1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Must carefully monitor all factors that could hinder return to 2% target Weak euro area economy and geopolitical tensions contributing to containing inflation But increased uncertainty, especially contradictory US policy announcements, calls for caution on rates As you would expect, they’re still not giving anything away and not pre-committing to anything before Trump’s tariffs are

Trump is planning to travel to Saudi Arabia in mid-May. This’ll be his first foreign trip since returning to the White House. Info via Axios citing two US officials and a source with knowledge. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Some viral numbers did the rounds this week with data showing a forward year-over-year drop in Canadian air travel to the USA between 75% and 71% for April-September. It was even discussed on CNBC. To illustrate: In April, the forward numbers show 295K passengers compared to 1.2 million a year ago. Those are hard to

The EURUSD has dipped below its 100-hour moving average at 1.07944. Falling below that level tips the technical bias more to the downside. The next target area comes between 1.07609 and 1.07767. Below that and traders will start to look toward the 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement near 1.0726 and 1.0730. Sellers are

The first quarter of 2025 has been defined by a rise in growth fears and inflation expectations leading to hightened stagflationary risks. The culprit is of course Trump’s tariffs policy. Bitcoin has been often cited as a hedge against inflation but the actual drivers of the cryptocurrency show a different perspective. Bitcoin is just another

Prior +1.6% HICP +2.1% vs +1.8% y/y expected Prior +1.7% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation remains unchanged though at 1.7%, so the ECB can take some comfort from that despite a jump in the headline readings. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Tariffs are a big driving influence in the USDCAD. If there is a threat, the USDCAD tends to go higher. If the pressure is off, the price can wander lower. The so-called “Liberation Day” is on April 2 and that has the markets concerned and with it the USDCAD higher. Technically, the USDCAD is showing

China Japan and South Korea will reportedly jointly respond to the US tariffs: Japan and South Korea are seeking to import semi conductor raw materials from China. China is also interested in purchasing chip products from Japan and South Korea. China Japan and South Korea have consensus that they hope to keep the supply chain

Japan February retail sales +1.4% y/y expected +2.0%, prior +4.4% For the m/m, comes in at +0.5% expected -0.2%, prior +0.5% Regional stocks are heavy after Friday hugs slide on Wall Street and ongoing tariff threats from trump. Nikkei is off more than 3%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China March official Manufacturing PMI 50.5 expected 50.5 (I’ve also seen expected at 50.4) prior 50.4 Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.8 expected 50.5, prior 50.4 Composite PMI 51.4 prior 51.1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0821 USD/JPY 149.70 GBP/USD 1.2933 USD/CHF 0.8803 USD/CAD 1.4304 AUD/USD 0.6292 NZD/USD 0.5719

Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate for the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from 20%. The company – not surprisingly – cites risks from escalating trade tensions and weakening consumer and business confidence. They also add that “statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate

Kremlin on Trump saying he was ‘pissed off’ with Putin: we continue to work on building bilateral relations and on Ukraine settlement ideas. Kremlin says president Putin remains open to contacts with Trump. A Putin-Trump conversation can be arrenged as needed. Some American companies have shown interest in rare earth projects in Russia, but this

The USD is mixed to start the US trading day. In the video above I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs to start the day and outline the key levels in play for each. Be aware. Be prepared. The US – all stock markets – are lower to start the day. Pres.

Trump rescinded permits and waivers that had allowed several Western energy firms to operate in Venezuela, further tightening pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Affected companies include U.S.-based Global Oil Terminals—led by energy magnate Harry Sargeant III (a staunch Trump supporter) —as well as Spain’s Repsol and France’s Maurel et Prom, all of which must

It’s a big moment in French politics, so do keep an eye out for this. Le Pen is the far right party leader and is the frontrunner in opinion polls ahead of the next presidential vote. If she is made ineligible, then this would see the far right grasp on the political scene turn into

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.7% That’s a strong beat on estimates with an upwards revision to January to boot. It points to a good start to the new year for German retail spending, after a more disappointing holiday period at the end of last year. Looking at the breakdown, food store sales were seen up

Eurostoxx -1.1% Germany DAX -1.0% France CAC 40 -1.1% UK FTSE -1.0% Spain IBEX -0.8% Italy FTSE MIB -1.4% This comes as US futures are also under heavy pressure, with S&P 500 futures down 0.8% currently. The prospect of Trump tariffs ahead of Liberation Day on 2 April is still the main source of worries

German DAX futures -1.0% UK FTSE futures -0.6% It’s looking rough out there with S&P 500 futures also marked down by 0.8% currently. The big question for investors is whether Trump tariffs will bring about a recession. And right now, fears are definitely running high ahead of the 2 April showdown. USD/JPY is also marked

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the AUDUSD pair just fell below a key support zone around the 0.6260 level which has been holding since March 10th. The sellers are likely to pile in with a defined risk above the broken zone to position for a drop into the March 4th

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As we get into the new day, broader markets are fearing that Trump might not be taking a targeted approach on tariffs come 2 April. That follows from this latest report here. Liberation Day is set to be the most important event in markets this week as we will get an idea of what sort

The screenshot below shows what’s up for the session ahead. I included the notification for much of Europe and the UK switching to daylight saving on Sunday, ICYMI Justin’s heads up: Heads up: The clocks will go forward in Europe this weekend If you trade European and/or UK markets you may need to adjust your

The Japanese Yen rallied across the board last Friday as the final University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment slumping more than expected and the long term inflation expectations got revised even higher. That was the catalyst that reignited stagflationary fears and triggered renewed risk-off flows. The main driver of major FX pairs is yield

“Trump’s tariff regime will be more disruptive to global economy than markets are pricing” China says that it has discovered a major oilfield in the eastern South China Sea Reserve Bank of Australia should cut now – “Global Economic Outlook Goes Into a Tailspin” Nasdaq Futures Analysis by tradeCompass Gold to a record high above

The verdict is that Le Pen will be deemed ineligible to be elected to public office, though the duration is unknown. But if confirmed, I reckon it should be the five-year ban as per what the offense would carry. This means she will be ruled out from running in 2027. Just when you thought the

Trump said he’s “very angry’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would consider imposing additional tariffs on Russian oil if a ceasefire with Ukraine isn’t achieved, according to NBC News. NBC said they spoke with Trump in a phone interview. Trump is “very angry” about Putin’s suggestion to replace Ukraine’s leadership and sideline President Zelenskiy.

Japan’s Finance Minister Kato will communicate closely with US counterparts on FX have agreed with US that excessive moves on forex are undesirable The rapid drop in USD/JPY is a strong candidate for ‘excessive’, but you won’t see any actual intervention from Japan to stem the yen’s rise from such weak levels. These fairly gentle

Headlines: Gold thrives as stagflationary risks continue to increase The gold train marches on for now USD/JPY slides lower as risk aversion grips markets to start the week Traders increase easing expectations for all central banks amid the global growth fears France’s Le Pen found guilty in case over misuse of parliamentary funds France’s Le

Melbourne Institue inflation gauge, March 2025 +0.7% m/m, highest since December 2023 prior -0.2% 2.8% y/y 2.2% prior Trimmed mean +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the focus turns towards Trump tariffs later in the week, the gold train is not stopping to kick start proceedings. The precious metal broke the $3,100 level earlier and is now up over 1% to a fresh record high of $3,121. In a time like this, it’s hard to find reasons not to like

This is fitting as they also see a higher chance of a recession ahead of what’s coming from Trump’s tariffs on 2 April. So, expecting a more dovish Fed in response plays into their overall outlook/narrative. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: German CPI. Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Tankan Index, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, RBA Policy Decision, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings. Wednesday: US ADP, US Tariffs implementation Thursday: China Caixin Services PMI, ECB Meeting Minutes, Swiss CPI, Eurozone PPI, US Challenger Job

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 80 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 64 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 52 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 55 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 74 bps

They’re now expecting another 25 bps rate cut before the summer break kicks in, following the latest developments. Last week, we did get softer inflation readings from France and Spain. That’s helping with the narrative alongside likely a softer growth outlook amid Trump’s tariffs coming up later this week. Goldman also revised their forecast for

Bloomberg (gated) carried the article. In brief: The People’s Bank of China investigated two individuals for allegedly spreading false rumors about interest rate cuts to gain online attention while posing as financial media. The operation was conducted in coordination with the network security department, and the suspects were handled by local law enforcement. In 2024,

Yen on the move higher, along with gold. There has been news also that Japan’s GPIF (world’s largest government pension investment fund) is expected to announce 5-year asset allocation plan today This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s finance ministry will inject 500 billion yuan (around $69 billion) into four of the country’s largest state-owned banks as part of a broader effort to strengthen the financial sector and support economic growth. The Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank plan to raise a combined 520 billion

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is planning to amend the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act to officially recognize crypto assets as financial products, according to the Nikkei business daily. As part of this change, crypto assets would be subject to insider trading rules, banning trades based on non-public information. The FSA is expected to present

Japan February Industrial Output (preliminary) +2.5% m/m expected +2.3%, prior -1.1% For the y/y, +0.3% prior +2.2% One month ahead forecast is +0.6% prior +0.5% 2 month ahead forecast is +0.1% prior -2.0 Productions was stepped up to fill orders front running US tariffs. USD/JPY update … sitting near session low: This article was written

In case you missed it, we had a WSJ report overnight saying the Trump was weighing broader and higher tariffs with hikes potentially as high as 20%. This weighed on an already negative sentiment that was triggered by last Friday’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey where the data showed an even worse picture

The other German state releases around the same time: Hesse CPI +2.4% vs +2.3% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.5% y/y prior The numbers aren’t as soft as expected. At

Nanjing is China’s 2nd-tier Eastern city has lifted home purchase limits starting March 31 Related (news from weekend) China Construction Bank reports strong rebound in home mortgage applications – since Q4. Cite housing policies taking effect. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 441.7 bn vs CHF 440.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits rose back a little in the past week, keeping with a slight bounce in March. But overall, it’s still not all too much changed over the last few months. The trend as per below: This article was written by Justin Low

UK business confidence held steady in March, matching February’s six-month high, according to Lloyds Bank. Lloyds Business Barometer March 2025 came in at 49 vs. expected 50 and February’s 49 Retailers showed strong sentiment, aligning with official data showing a surprise jump in February retail sales. Confidence in own trading prospects hit its highest level

✅ Nasdaq Futures Analysis Today – Trade Compass Levels & Trade Plan (March 31, 2025) Nasdaq Futures (NQ) are trading at 19,222, down 1.21% from Friday’s close. After a sharp move lower in early trading, price action is now approaching key technical zones where a bullish retracement could develop. Our Trade Compass provides the critical

Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts on USD/JPY: “We judge that Trump’s tariff regime will be more disruptive to the global economy than markets are currently pricing” Risks are tilted to a sharp decline in global equities and a weaker USD/JPY USD/JPY could soon sustainably break below support at 148.13 This article was written by Eamonn

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady uptrend lately as traders have been finding shelter in the precious metal amid stagflationary risks. In fact, we are seeing inflation expectations rising while growth forecasts get revised lower. Last Friday, we got some more bad news as the final University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment

Reserve Bank of Australia should cut rates tomorrow, Tuesday, April 1, 2025, says this piece in the Wall Street Journal: RBA Should Cut as Global Economic Outlook Goes Into a Tailspin more to come It’s a detailed, well-argued piece. If you can access the Journal, well worth a read. In really brief: things have changed

Keeping inflation in check is a constant battle Inflation needs to come down in a durable manner To do this, we need to have an interest rate that is carefully set Trump tariffs a chance for Europe to show independence Any ensuing trade war would be a lose-lose scenario She can take some comfort from

A government official in Japan says (if you believe him ….) Haven’t heard from manufacturers that US tariffs had direct impact on production at this point The results are here: Japan February Industrial Output (preliminary) +2.5% m/m (expected +2.3%, prior -1.1%) Market speculation is that front-running tariffs were the reason for the big jump. Yen

Today we don’t have much on the agenda with the German inflation data as the only highlight. As a reminder, the French and Spanish data last Friday missed across the board and firmed up the chances for a 25 bps cut at the upcoming ECB meeting. The news of the day is the WSJ report