Eyes will once again be on China and its annual parliament. We had a barrage of announcements yesterday: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China’s sets GDP growth target for 2025 “around 5%” It should be lighter today. All the better to buckle up ahead of the European Central Bank today: ECB to cut by 25bp […]

Closing changes: S&P 500 +1.2% Nasdaq Comp +1.5% DJIA +1.1% Russell 2000 +1.0% Toronto TSX Comp +1.1% Mexican Bolsa flat It was another lively day in the market as the market opened flat and then sold off before embarking on an afternoon rally, in part due to the confirmation that auto tariffs were ‘delayed’ by

BofA notes a significant shift in FX positioning this year, with USD longs being reduced by 40%, while JPY and EUR positions have increased. The market remains net long USD but with less extreme positioning, while EUR/USD shorts have moderated to post-COVID averages. Key Points: 1️⃣ USD Longs Reduced, but Still Present 💵 The year

Canada’s Foreign Minister Joly: Canada could potentially use oil and gas exports as a lever if US tariffs continue. Did this minister not get the memo? This was floated within a nanosecond or so of Trump’s first attack on Canada. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Says he thinks Trump will meet Mexico and Canada in the middle on tariffs We’re going to probably be announcing that tomorrow If USMCA rules are followed, Trump is considering relief We’ll see tariff changes on April 2 with Mexico and Canada Canadians like to cheat Does he think that some kind of 12.5% tariff

Germany will set up €500 billion infrastructure fund and a special defense fund Trump tells advisors he wants to announce Ukraine minerals deal during Congress speech Hassett: If the fentanyl emergency were to be ended, then so would these tariffs Fed’s Williams: There is a lot of uncertainty on how tariffs will play out Trump

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking today. Given the way Japanese economic data, including inflation, is moving, Ueda is like;ly to be coming more confident on near term rate hikes. He may also be coming under some pressure to do just that: Japanese media says the BoJ could face US pressure to hike rates

Bitcoin is up $6000 from the intrday low as it traded as high as $88,465. That move has come in less than three hours but what’s particularly incredible is that if you zoom this chart out, it doesn’t even look like that big of a move in light of the $10,000 moves on Sunday and

Scott Bessent had floated monetizing federal assets and people had speculated about a lot of things. It sounds it’s more of a privatizing real estate move. This will raise some money but it’s a small number compared to the trillions the US needs to cut to balance the budget or cut taxes. This article was

There was nothing in particular to spur the huge turnaround in markets. Sentiment bottomed right at the close of European stock markets at 11:30 am ET. Since then we’ve seen an impressive rally in everything and the S&P 500 is back to flat and the Nasdaq is up 1%. It started with short-covering in some

S&P 500 -1.2% Nasdaq Comp -0.35% Russell 2000-0.4% Dow Jones Industrial Average-1.6% Toronto TSX Composite -1.3% There was a big rally after the European close and it looked like a nice reversal but sellers returned in the final 30 minutes of trading. Intel and Tesla had rough days while Google made some solid gains. This

Hassett was trotted out to lay the groundwork for delaying the tariffs in February. I don’t see much new in this comment yet but it’s notable that all of the focus is on fentanyl and none of it on immigration or the border. Earlier though, Lutnick highlighted fentanyl deaths as the key measure and those

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams spoke on Tuesday, ICYMI headlines here: Fed’s Williams: There is a lot of uncertainty on how tariffs will play out As befits a central banker Williams was cautious, saying there is a lot of uncertainty about how the ec onomy will respond to Trump’s tariffs. Williams

The data agenda coming up for those interested. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting in February are the focus. At that meeting the Bank cut rates for the first time since November 2020. The rate hiking cycle began in May 2022 with a move to 0.35%, and the Bank had been on hold

TSMC to build five additional chip factories in the US Total investment will be at least $165 billion $100 billion in addition to $65 billion already pledged Will also build an R&D center This is the $100 billion investment that leaked out earlier today. At some point, people thought that would be related to crypto

Friday’s big rally in US stock markets has been completely erased. S&P 500 down 113 points, or 1.9% Nasdaq Comp down 493 points, or 2.6% The Nasdaq has completely erased the entire post-election rally. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US 10-year yields are down 7 bps to 4.16% today. That’s the lowest so far this year and within striking distance of the December intraday low of 4.126%. Beyond that, 4.00% and the September low of 3.60%. That low came on big concerns about a slowing US economy and with the Fed rapidly cutting rates

China watchers are highlighting this article. It’s called “The Basic Understanding of China’s Current Fiscal Deficit Issue” and was written in the state-sponsored China State Finance publication. It comes at at time when the market and many economists are begging for heavy government borrowing and spending, with the National People’s Congress ongoing this week. “There

Trump earlier said Canada and Mexico tariffs would go into effect tomorrow. Later in the press conference he was asked if there was any room for negotiation before the tariffs went on and he said there wasn’t. “The tariffs, you know, they’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” he said. USD/CAD has jumped to

“Tomorrow – 25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico,” Trump said. USD/CAD jumped about 60 pips on the comment and US equities slumped. We will see what happens by the deadline. He also reiterated the April 2 reciprocal tariffs. Zelensky should be more appreciative Doesn’t think Ukraine minerals deal is dead Says they will make deals

The White House says that Trump signed the order to raise China tariffs to 20%. That’s notable partly because he hasn’t signed the orders on Mexico and Canada, or at least they haven’t announced it. CNBC in their reporting touched on that. They asked the White House about that order and it hasn’t been signed,

Trump signed the order to increase tariffs on China to 20% from 10% but didn’t yet sign them on Canada. That last-minute note led to some last-second buying that lifted stocks from the lows. Despite that, it was a rough day for stocks, with tech and small caps hit particularly hard. S&P 500 down 1.75%

Trump posted on his own social media app (bolding below is mine): A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Is PayPal Stock a Buy? Swing Trade Setup for PYPL Amid Oversold Conditions Is PayPal Stock a Buy or Sell? Market Context and Trade Setup PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) has recently seen a significant decline, pushing it into oversold territory based on technical indicators. With the stock approaching a key support level, swing traders

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday: Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada-Mexico-China Tariffs Deadline, Trump Congress Speech. Wednesday: China Two-Sessions, Australia Q4 GDP, China Caixin Services PMI, Switzerland CPI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI. Thursday: China

When you KNOW a major catalyst is coming you need to get on with as much as you can. Details: The $123 mn buying on Bitcoin was filled around $85,908 The $75mn buying on Ethereum filled around $2,197 Liquidation levels to the two fills (BTC and ETH didn’t even get close to dipping LOL) BTC

We had the official PMIs from China over the weekend: China February PMIs: Manufacturing 50.2 (expected 50.0) Services 50.4 (expected 50.3) I was happy to grab that info and post it, I thought it was the major event of the weekend. Boy was I wrong, LOL: A US$195mn buy order was placed & filled on

Official February 2025 PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Both the January and February data are impacted this time of year by the Lunar New Year holidays. These were Jan. 29 to Feb. 12 in 2025. March will provide a clearer reading. Manufacturing 50.2, beating the median consensus estimate and back into expansion

What a fiasco this has turned into. Trump is out with a statement: “We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not

It’s a real mess out there many fronts right now and that makes it a good time to look at the charts. Cable has my attention with the three-candle reversal that was completed yesterday. It was further validated by today’s decline, which is 40 pips to a 10-day low of 1.2560. The pair is trading

The FX market closes in three hours but there will be plenty of intrigue in the 48 hours before it ramps back up. That will start with an interview that’s scheduled for 6 pm ET between Ukraine President Zelensky and Bret Baier at Fox News. The interview is touted as ‘live’ and Baier says it’s

The EURUSD fell after comments from Trump (and the U.S.), suggesting Ukraine—and by extension, the EU—may have to fend for themselves if peace is not reached through compromise rather than victory. That did not sit well with Zelenskiy who see Russia as the aggressor and wants guaranteed security from the US. Trump does not want

It’s getting easier to connect the dots on the North American trade fight. Trump has scheduled 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for Tuesday at midnight but the market doesn’t really think it’s going to happen. The Trump admin has repeatedly said it’s about fentanyl but that’s obviously a canard. The question has always been:

Trump: Zelensky disrespected Oval Office and he can come back when he’s ready for peace More from Trump to Zelenskyy: You either make a deal or we are out Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker swan dives into recessionary territory US January PCE core +2.6% vs +2.6% expected US advance goods trade balance for January -$153.26 billion

Trump to Zelenskyy: You have to be thankful… You don’t have the cards right now,and it is going to be very hard to do business like this. You either make a deal or we are out Your comments were very disrespectful. You’ve talked too much VP JD Vance told Zelenskyy that he has not once

I think this is a big tell on the North American front. Bloomberg reports that Mexico is open to new tariffs on China to avoid Trump duties. I don’t think anyone really believed this was all about fentanyl, given Trump’s words. Now we get some confirmation of that with the aim shifting towards blocking China

I don’t know if we’ve ever seen anything like this before. Zelensky, Trump and Vance descended into open argument in the White House. It was one of the most extraordinary things you will ever see in diplomacy (or lack thereof). The minerals deal was left unsigned and the Ukrainians have now left the White House.

Taking its cue from the book “It can’t get any worse?”, the US stock market is closing higher despite the Trump vs Zelenskiy brouhaha in the Oval Office. Despite the rebound, the broader S&P and Nasdaq indices are closing lower for the 2nd consecutive week. The final nmbers for the day are showing: Dow industrial

The AUD, NZD and CAD remain the weakest of the major currencies vs the USD (along with the EUR). Versus the USD, the % changes for those currencies now shows: AUD -1.10% NZD -1.07% CAD -0.73% Technically the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are moving below the 50% retracement levels and look toward the swing level next

North Korea has test fired a strategic cruise missile to test nuclear deterrence Back in the day this headline would have prompted a move into yen and the USD. Not so much any more. Besides, the USD is already up on the tariff talk that keeps on flowing out of Trump’s mouth: Forexlive Americas FX

The S&P 500 opened at 5864 on the morning after the US election, it’s now trading at 5880. That’s just a few points higher on what was a surprisingly strong Republican sweep. In the aftermath of the election, the market was enthralled with the idea of extending the Trump tax cuts, deregulation and a pickup

In late November, I made the case for buying gold. At the time, we got data that China’s central bank had resumed gold purchases. We were also dealing with US election uncertainty and — most importantly — the strong seasonal trend in gold. Gold was trading at $2620 since then and it caught a remarkable

OpenAI is hosting a livestream of the release of ChatGPT 4.5 right now. It’s going to be rolled out for Pro users this week and Plus users next week. Deep Research has earned some rave reviews. At the same time, today feels like a telling day. Nvidia beat on earnings, rose after hours and is

We are going to have a deal done with UK on trade rather quickly Tariffs are not about inflation but about fairness It’s been impressive how the UK has managed to avoid any threats from Trump. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices close lower in trading here today with the NASDAQ index getting hammered and having its worst trading day since January 27 (DeepSeek day). The NASDAQ index is now down -3.97% on the year. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -193.62 points or -0.45% at 43239.50. S&P index -94.49

Trump pledges an additional 10% tariff next week. Says Canada/Mexico tariffs still on White House confirms additional 10% on China for a 20% total US initial jobless claims 242K versus 221K estimate US January durable goods orders +3.1% vs +2.0% expected US Q4 GDP second reading +2.3% vs +2.3% expected Trump: Tariffs are are going

Harker is retiring in June so I don’t know how much we should be listening to him. Policy rate remains restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation Fed watches the data, then reacts if we must Progress towards 2% inflation target has slowed Should not move to act on policy in either direction based

Federal Reserve more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

President Biden gave Venezuela something of an olive branch in an effort to get free elections but it hasn’t gone to plan and now Trump says he’s ending it. He also cited that Venezuela isn’t taking back illegal immigrants. The deal had eased sanctions on oil, gas and gold but a portion of that had

Nvidia is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings report after the market closes today. Analysts project record revenue of approximately $38.1 billion, marking a 70% increase from the same period last year. Net income is expected to reach around $19.6 billion, or $0.85 per share. Year ago levels were: Revenues: $22.1 billion EPS: $0.51 The

US stocks were flying higher earlier today after Congress took a step towards passing a massive corporate tax cut but that’s quickly turned around with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 now both flat. The drop may reflect high anxiety about Nvidia earnings today but it’s hard to pin it on that given that shares of

Goldman Sachs analyzes the impact of anticipated Japanese repatriation flows, particularly from major institutions like GPIF and financial firms shifting allocations away from foreign bonds. While expectations lean toward a domestic stock and bond reallocation, there is little evidence yet of substantial foreign bond repatriation, making JPY strength potentially premature. Key Insights: 1️⃣ Major Institutional

Prior was 4.457% Bid to cover vs 2.64 prior This is the final Treasury auction of the week and the month. The yield is nicely below last months sale (by about a quarter point) following the broad rally in the bond market. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is talking about DOGE, tariffs and the usual stuff in the Oval office. There isn’t anything market moving in what he’s said already but he said this on China: We’re going to get along very well with China China is a competitor US descriptions of China range from “competitor” to “adversary” to “enemy”. There

This week Deutsche Bank shifted its view on the euro in a shift to neutral. It’s been a nice ride down to 1.0480 from 1.09 at this time last year but they are seeing changes in the political winds on both sides of the trade. The three German centrist parties are likely to opt into

Once again, the bluff has been called. Earlier this week, Trump said the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go ahead and now he has pushed them back another month. The tell was yesterday when Mexico’s Cheinbaum didn’t sound the least bit concerned. Trump made the announcement about 45 minutes ago in the Oval Office

The White House still plans to implement the 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico next week. This is despite the comments from Pres. Trump earlier today that those tariffs would start in April. The USDCAD has seen a modest bounce to 1.4335. The high for the day reached 1.4366. The pair is back

In volatile up and down trading, the major indices are closing the session with mixed results. Dow industrial average fell -186.87 points or -0.43% at 43434.29. S&P index closed near unchanged. The index rose 0.92 points or 0.02% at 5956.17. NASDAQ index rose modestly by 48.88 points or 0.26% at 19075.26 The small-cap Russell 2000

The 3 major US stock indices traded below the 100-day moving averages intraday, but for the Dow industrial average and the S&P index, the price closed back above that key technical barometer. For the NASDAQ index it closed below its 100-day moving average at 19211.55 for the first time since September 10th. The S&P index

Trump signed an executive order directing the Commerce Department to examine possible copper tariffs. US commerce secretary Lutnick says will investigate possible imposition of tariffs to rebuild US copper industry. Lutnick: No exemptions, no exceptions; it’s time for copper to come home. White House official: Trump will recognize copper sector as a national security issue,

The market is struggling to read through mixed signals on inflation and growth in the US. Today’s consumer confidence number plunged in a sign that retail won’t be as strong as believed. I also wonder if all the turmoil coming out of DOGE might normalize broad layoffs as well. That’s come alongside some threats around

BofA remains structurally bearish on JPY, raising their USD/JPY forecast to 165 (previously 160) and expecting the 10-year JGB yield to reach 1.65%. They see continued JPY weakness driven by accelerating Japanese outward investment, as households shift wealth away from yen deposits into foreign assets amid persistent inflation. Key Points: 1️⃣ Higher USD/JPY Forecast 📈

Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino is repeating some of the earlier reporting about an investment fund and minerals deal with the US. His report also has this interesting tidbit: “They expect Zelenskyy also to agree to concessions in terms of ceding control of some land for peace.” Now that could just refer to the small

Many reports today say a deal is coming between the US and Ukraine on creating an investment fund with the US to invest in natural resources in the country. The details of that are still sketchy but it looks like it’s basically done and Zelensky will fly to the US on Friday to sign it

China’s stock market has been a darling lately, something I suspected was coming a month ago. What wasn’t clear was who was doing the buying — domestic or foreign investors — and how much conviction they have. In October, we got a taste of this dynamic as the rest of the world briefly fell in

The NZDUSD has seen the price move lower in trading today as risk-off sentiment led to declines. Having said that, the fall was not without it’s ups and downs intraday. Nevertheless, technically speaking, the first corrective high in the Asia-Pacific session stalled against the 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below). The rest

The price of crude oil fell -$1.77 or -2.5% to settle at $68.93. The declines today have been driven by economic concerns after a sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence to an 8-month low of 98.3. That mirrored the Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment released last week. Oil also declined alongside stocks and cryptocurrencies, with

Trump speaking: says Europe uses digital taxes to penalize US businesses says I hear that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is coming to visit on Friday some form of peacekeeping troops will be needed for Ukraine Perhaps the troops will come from Europe and not the US? Dunno. Maybe Trump is not just a trade war guy?

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump My people are dealing with Putin’s people constantly ONe of the first calls I made was to Putin We are working on transactions no, in particular to end the war Goal is to get war stopped with ceasefire or directly with agreement. We are on time with tariffs Tariffs are going forward Found hundreds

Trump press conference with Macron. My people are dealing with Putin constantly Russia’s Putin on US/Ukraine rare earth metals: It’s none of our business Germany is discussing EUR$200B in emegency defense spending Crude oil futures settled $0.30 higher at $70.70 JPM Dimon: We see consumers are kind of back, almost going to normal. BOE Dhingra:

Crude oil futures are settling up $0.30 and $70.70. The low for the day reached $69.80. The high was at $70.88. The low price was the lowest level going back to December 27. The price remains comfortably below its 200-hour moving average at $71.48 and its 100 hour moving average of $71.65. Getting back above

We get Japan’s services PPI (also known as the Corporate Services Price Index) for January today The January goods PPI from Japan (also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index) showed a solid rise: Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y (expected +4.0% prior +3.8%) While there is no number for expectations printed on the calendar

Last week, NZDUSD found support at the rising 200-hour moving average, holding its low before rebounding. The pair then broke above a key swing area (0.5683–0.5694), which acted as support on a corrective move Thursday before pushing higher. That day, the price also broke above the 100-hour moving average (near 0.5715), consolidated at that level,

Russia’s Putin is on the wires saying that the US-Ukraine rare earth metals negotiations are none of our business. Huh? He adds: On rare earth metals cooperation with US, Russia would be ready to offer joint work to US public and private entities. Huh? Trump want to improve political situation in Ukraine, to create conditions

We see consumers are kind of back, almost going to normal If terms are used to protect national security that is paramount government is inefficient, not very competent. Needs lots of work. It’s not just about the deficit, it is about building the government we deserve I do not see deflationary forces I am not

Germany is considering a EUR 200Billion in emergency defense spending to rebuild its military Germany is considering EUR 200 billion ($210 billion) in emergency defense spending to rebuild its military. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is in talks with the Social Democrats (SPD) to bypass borrowing restrictions. Plan to push a vote before March 24, before the

Bank of America on just one of the inflation impacts US consumers can expect: “If tariffs of 10–25% are imposed, PC makers like Dell, HP, and Apple will likely pass the added costs onto buyers, raising prices by at least 10% in the US or raise prices across more geos by a lower magnitude,” The

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Various news sources have extensive coverage of the outcome of Germany’s Federal election. This is a summary, in very brief: CDU/CSU secures 28.7% of votes, with far-right AfD at 19.8%, per ZDF projection. Markets await coalition formation to gauge fiscal reform prospects. Market-friendly coalitions possible, including CDU-SPD-Greens. AfD’s weaker-than-expected result. Key focus on Germany’s “debt

AI hype and data-center capex have been major market drivers in the past year but there is some angst lately about how much is being spent and whether there is a real business case for it all. That really kicked off with DeepSeek undercutting cost assumptions and now there is a TD note doing the

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, but not as much as we’ve come to expect over these past few weeks:

New Zealand retail sales for Q4 will be eyed. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand seems well set on a further easing course, with two or three 25 bp cuts expected in the months ahead through July. A beat on sales might edge pricing toward two rather than three, and a is vice versa. This

The European Central Bank (ECB) may reduce its deposit rate to 2% by summer, according to Francois Villeroy de Galhau, head of the Bank of France and an ECB Governing Council member. In an interview with Alternatives Economiques, Villeroy stated that based on the current outlook, a 2% rate could be reached by mid-year. He

It was a tough day in the market but that’s nothing compared to what crypto exchange Bybit faced today. The company confirmed that a wallet it was holding was drained of the equivalent of $1.5 billion in ethereum. It may be the largest theft of any kind, ever, at least in nominal terms. “Bybit is

UMich final February consumer sentiment 64.7 versus 67.8 expected US long-term inflation expectations hit a 30-year high in the UMich survey Canada December retail sales +2.5% vs +1.6% expected US existing home sales for January. 4.08 million versus 4.12 million estimate Fed’s Goolsbee: Steel tariffs will raise production costs in region Baker Hughes oil rig

On Sunday, German voters go to the polls in a high-contested election. The first exit polls will land Sunday at 6 pm CET (noon in New York) and the first results will be from 30 minutes later with continued updates from there. The conservative CDU/CSU is leading the polls with 31%, followed by the far-right

The Canadian dollar is facing risks from tariffs, trade, global growth, domestic housing, politics and energy. Plenty could go wrong but there is a brighter path that’s possible too. On Friday I spoke in an interview with BNNBloomberg about what has to happen to lift the loonie. For a deeper looking into these drivers and

Bitcoin or Ethereum: Which Crypto is the Better Investment in 2025? The Crypto Battle Between Bitcoin and Ethereum For crypto investors, the debate between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remains one of the most important decisions in portfolio allocation. Over the past two years, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed Ethereum, as seen in the BTC/ETH ratio,

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: German IFO. Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI. Thursday: Switzerland Q4 GDP, US Durable Goods Orders, US Q4 GDP (2nd estimate), US Jobless Claims. Friday: Tokyo CPI, France CPI, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 103.0 vs. 104.1 prior. The last report

How DeepSeek is Changing the AI Game and Its Potential Impact on NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, has quickly gained attention in the AI world. While most discussions have been dominated by big names like OpenAI and Google, DeepSeek has emerged as a fresh competitor with an emphasis on efficiency and open-source

The USDJPY has moved below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September 2024 low at 149.22. The low just reached 148.98. The price is also below a swing area between 149.078 and 149.39. Sellers looking for more downside could now use the 149.39 as the close risk level. Stay below is more

Fed’s Goolsbee is lurking around saying that: Steel tariffs will raise production costs in the region. He has spoken a few times this week. As a result, what he says will likely not impact the markets. Yesterday, Goolsbee commented on inflation and economic conditions, stating that the upcoming PCE report is unlikely to be as

BOC Macklem is speaking and says: 2026 monetary policy framework renewal should leave 2% inflation target unchanged “Now is not the time to question the anchor that has proven so effective,” says Macklem BOC’s focus will be on how it can improve the framework and its implementation to best address structural changes BOC wants to

Comments from Trump: Russia wants to do a deal Putin and Zelensky need to work together Thinking about merging the US postal service with Commerce Dept US will soon impose reciprocal tariffs I think that comment on Europe is another sign that Trump isn’t planning to use tariffs to raise (much) money but to extract

Baker Hughes rig count for the week shows: Oil rigs up 7 at 488 Natural gas rigs down -2 at 99 Total rigs +4 at 592 Crude oil is down -1 dollar anyone cents or -2.5% at $70.67. For the trading week, the high this week reached $73.11. The low was $70.16. Last Friday, the

Discover how to set and achieve your trading goals realistically The post How To Achieve Your Trading Goals appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The US yields are trading at session lows with the 10-year yield now down -6.8 basis points. The 2 year is down -3.8 basis points. The fall in yields is being impacted by lower stocks (flight to safety) as Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment fell while inflation expectations moved higher. That is not a good

Pres. Trump is saying that is Isreal’s Netanyahu is “not torn” about the way forward in Gaza war. He “wants to go in” Asked if he prefers the 2nd phase of hostage release or go after Hamas, Trump said “I can go either way” Yesterday Hamas returned the remains of 2 children and a mother.

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday as the USD weakened, bringing the pair within 5 pips of the 38.2% retracement level from the September 2024 high. Just above that, the falling 100-day moving average (MA) also acted as resistance. Sellers leaned into these levels, leading to a technical rotation lower. As the session progressed, US equity

Discover the ins and outs of what it really takes to develop consistency in trading The post How To Develop Consistency in Trading appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

US stock markets are under some heavy pressure today with the S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Russell 2000 down 2.5%. Some worries have been building for awhile and at the moment I don’t think it’s one single thing. It’s a collection of things in an over-leveraged, overcrowded market that’s led to some (overdue?) profit

The major US indices are closing sharply lower with the NASDAQ index down -2.20% and the Russell 2000 index down close to 3%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -748.63 points or -1.69% at 43428.02. For the trading week, the Dow fell -2.51% – the weakest since October 2024. S&P index fell -104.39

MUFG highlights the JPY as the best-performing G10 currency in 2025, driven by narrowing yield differentials and stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP growth. They maintain a short EUR/JPY position, targeting 150. Key Points: 1️⃣ JPY is the Best-Performing G10 Currency in 2025 JPY has strengthened by 4.8% vs. USD and 4.0% vs. EUR YTD. USD/JPY has fallen

The US dollar is broadly softer today and falling yields have contributed to that. Prior was 2.055% Bid to cover 2.48 vs 2.61 prior There hasn’t been much of a market reaction to this but yields have been creeping up from the lows in the last hour or so. That could put a floor under

USDJPY broke below its yearly low and February low at 150.943, accelerating downside momentum. The decline extended to 149.39, aligning with the upper boundary of a key swing area dating back to mid-August 2024 (149.08 – 149.39). This level also coincides with the 50% retracement of the September-to-January uptrend at 149.221, making it a crucial

The GBPUSD is trading to a new high and in the process is testing a key swing area up to 1.2670 and the 100-day MA at 1.2666. The high price just reached 1.2670. This is a key technical level for both buyers and sellers. Move above and stay above and traders will start to look

GEOPOLITICS: Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says Ukraine is ready for strong and useful agreement with US on investments and security. Ukraine offered the fastest and constructive way for this. Ukraine is ready for 24/7 work on this Trump and Zelenskiy have been squabbling with Trump calling Zelenskiy a dictator and saying Ukraine owes $500B. Zelenskiy says he

Morgan Stanley maintains its broader G10 FX outlook, favoring AUD and JPY as top performers, GBP resilience, and NZD gains trailing AUD. They see CAD and CHF as underperformers due to trade risks and funding flows. Key Points: 1️⃣ Top Performers: AUD & JPY AUD: Gains supported by positive local factors and global risk appetite.

Europe needs to step up for their own defense as a NATO partner Calls for allies to pay up by June NATO summit Zelensky needs to come back to the table on critical minerals Trump is obviously very frustrated with Zelensky right now It sounds like Zelensky has already tried to tone it down. This

US crude oil futures settled at $72.57, gaining $0.32 (+0.44%) on the day. Prices ranged between a low of $71.76 and a high of $73.10. On the hourly chart, today’s low found support near the 200-hour moving average, reinforcing its importance as a key level for buyers in the short term. The 100-hour moving average

Modestly restrictive policy is key to getting inflation back to target It will take time to get inflation to 2% Uncertainty is not yet a major restraint on the economy Gaining confidence that inflation is moving back towards target is key to support for more cuts Consumers and the labor market are healthy The Fed

As the trading day nears its close, USDCHF is testing the lower boundary of its multi-week trading range, which has been in place since mid-December. On the 4-hour chart, the pair formed a double top at the January high two weeks ago before reversing lower. Last week, the price found buyers at range support (0.8965

It’s not often that you see the United States cutting military spending. I don’t think too many people had that as a baseline scenario to pay for corporate tax cuts, but it would go a long way. Trump certainly didn’t campaign on it but he may be trying to keep the hawks happy by shifting

The price of Palantir is trading down $-15 or -12% at $109.48 after Pres. Trump ordered the Pentagon to cut budget by 8%. The price of Palantir reached a new all-time high of $125.41 in trading today before rotating to the downside. You can argue that the software that Palantir provides might be what the

Major stock indices are closing higher with the S&P index closing at another record level. Shares of Palantir did not fare as well as it tumbled -10.08% after present from said that the Pentagon should look to cut spending by 8%. With the price at the highs today up nearly 100% from the January low,

Expects very dampened and subdued business investment ahead This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P and NASDAQ indices are positive on the day and trading near session highs. S&P index is up 14.15 points or 0.23% at 6143.79. Yesterday index closed at a record high. Anything positive today would be a another record high NASDAQ index is up 40 points or 0.20% at 20081 The Dow industrial average

USDCAD fell earlier in the session, testing the 100-hour moving average (1.4195), a key short-term pivot. As noted earlier, holding above this level would indicate continued bullish momentum, while a break below would shift control back to sellers. The support held, leading to a rotation higher toward the next key resistance. The upside move pushed

Trump attacks Zelensky in a post, calls him a dictator FOMC Minutes: The vast majority of participants judged risks to mandate roughly balanced US January housing starts 1.366M versus 1.39M expected Fed’s Bostic: Did not expect inflation to go in a straight line Trump admin orders Pentagon to prepare for 8% budget cuts – report

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Difficult to factor all potential policy changes into the economic outlook The question now is whether January CPI was a bump in the road or a new trend The confidence around the 2025 outlook has diminished Some proposals could add to inflation, others could boost productivity or lower price pressures Many business leaders are optimistic

You’ll note that the People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting is due today. Its not as relevant as it once was. I’ve posted on this before, but ICYMI. ps. The TL;DR on this (below) is that in June 2024 the PBoC designated the 7-day reverse repurchase (repo) rate as the primary policy

There were several reports over the long weekend suggesting that Intel could be split up and sold off. That has fresh traction with a report from Bloomberg that Silver Lake is near a deal for a stake in Intel’s Altera. Intel bought Altera in an all-cash deal in 2015 worth $16.7 billion. Currently, Intel’s market

One thing that’s been floating around in my head in a comment that President Trump said two weeks ago when he signed the fresh ‘maximum pressure’ executive order to halt Iran oil exports. “This is one that I’m torn about,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “Everybody wants me sign it. I’ll do that.

NBC: Putin is not interested in a peace deal US February Empire Fed 5.7 vs -1.0 expected US NAHB housing market index for February 42 versus 47 estimate Canada CPI inflation YoY 1.9% vs 1.9% estimate. MoM 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate SF Fed Pres. Daly: US economy is in a good place Silver Lake is

US equities are under some mild selling pressure at the moment as the S&P 500 erased a small gain and is now down 10 points to 6104. A test of the 6100 barrier held and this looks like moderate back-and-fill price action. Zooming out, the daily chart shows consolidation just below the January record high.

The EURUSD has moved to a new low on the day after breaking below the rising 100 hour MA for the 2nd time today. The first saw the price move back up to retest a swing area and found sellers keeping the downside potential in play at least in the short term. Move below the

Six weeks ago it was a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives would win the 2025 election (it’s due in October or earlier) and Pierre Poilievre would become the next Prime Minister. Then three big things happened: Trudeau resigned Mark Carney ran for leadership Trump threatened Canadian sovereignty Trudeau was way past his best-before date and

USDCHF buyers defended key support near 0.8965 – 0.8974 last week, leading to a price stall and a subsequent rebound. Monday’s low also held near this area before a modest upside move, reinforcing its significance as a key support zone. Today, the pair broke above a higher swing area (0.8997 – 0.9011), with a corrective

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BofA maintains a EUR/USD outlook of short-term weakness but a medium-term recovery. They do not expect parity, but the pair could drift lower before rallying to 1.10 by year-end—well above consensus. With EUR/USD already at their mid-year forecast of 1.05 ahead of schedule, their broader view remains intact: USD strength persists in Q1, but fades

The focus is on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. A 50bp rate cut is widely expected although 25 can’t be entirely ruled out. I’ll pick 50. Earlier: NZIER RBNZ Shadow Board recommends OCR cut by 50bp on February 19 Newsquawk Week Ahead: RBA, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Canada, UK and Japan inflation Reserve Bank

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to cut interest rates for the first time in four years when it announces its decision later today at 10:30 PM ET. The benchmark rate has remained at 4.35% for 10 consecutive meetings, and with inflation easing, the RBA is now positioned to begin a rate-cutting cycle.

Trade Compass – NASDAQ Futures (February 17, 2025, and perhaps for this week, depending on how NQ price develops… Check out these key price levels on the map) NASDAQ Futures is currently trading at 22,230, sitting just slightly below today’s VWAP, which is around 22,233. At this moment, the market is neutral, and Trade Compass

The USDJPY has completed an up-and-down lap that took the pair from the close on Friday Feb 7 at 151.39 to a high last week at 154.79 and back down to the 151.39 level. The price is stalling at a swing area between 151.20 to 151.40 which is ahead of the double bottom from the

European indices closed higher to kick off the new trading week, with Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB leading the gains. The snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +1.26% to a new all-time high closing level France’s CAC, +0.03%. Highest close since May 2024. UK FTSE 100, +0.41% Spain’s Ibex, +0.47%. Highest closing

, Or about Europe without euro UK PM Starmer: Future of Ukraine is an existential issue for Europe It is pressing that they now share the burden. Europe must play its role There must be a US backstop He concludes by saying it is the only way to deter Russia. Meanwhlle Danish PM says: We

ECBs Holzmann: There is some probability of a March rate cut He adds that decisions in favor of more cuts getting harder The ECB has coverage from 4.4% to the current 2.9%. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points on January 30. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters is reporting that Taiwan is considering a $7– $10 billion arms purchase from the US. IN the Trump administration, the theme so far is defense is available for sale, not just given away to maintain democracy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trump outlines the recipricol tariff plan on X The “Big Balls” from the Trump presidency are all in the air: Cut out government waste and make government efficient from a technological perspective Get paid back for the defense of other nations Get countries to foot their own defense (BTW the US has some defense contractors

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller is speaking on the economic outlook at an event in Australia before the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Macroeconomic Workshop There are widespread expectations of a 25bp rate cut from the RBA today. It is not a unanimous expectation., The meeting is live. RBA Poised to Reduce Cash

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan GDP. Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, UK Employment report, German ZEW, Canada CPI, US NAHB Housing Market Index, New Zealand PPI. Wednesday: Australia Wage Price Index, RBNZ Policy Decision, UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, FOMC Minutes. Thursday: Australia Employment report, PBoC LPR, Canada PPI, US Jobless Claims. Friday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, but not as much as we’ve come to expect over these past three weeks:

Mon: N/A Tue: RBA Announcement & SoMP, UK Jobs (Dec), Swedish CPIF (Jan), German ZEW (Feb), Canadian CPI (Jan), Japanese Trade Balance (Jan) Wed: FOMC Minutes, RBNZ Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, Chinese House Prices (Jan), UK CPI (Jan) Thu: PBoC LPR, Australian Jobs (Jan), EZ Consumer Confidence (Feb), Japanese CPI (Jan) Fri: UK Retail

A look at the data agenda ahead of US holidays today, Monday, February 17, 2025. The focus for the session is on Japan’s GDP data, for the final quarter of 2024: the expected 0.3% q/q rise is based on the recovery of private spending and exports wages and retail sales improved on exports, a positive

Trump comments crossing the wires, make of these what you will: says he is working very hard to make peace sees Zelinskiy involved Putin want to end it soon his meeting with Putin could be very soon This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

S&P misses on a record close. Nasdaq closes higher Key economic releases scheduled for next week’s trading. Fed Logan (voting in 26): Next couple of months of inflation will be pretty important Trump: Working on pipeline held up by New York to bring down energy prices TSMC is receptive to Intel factory deal Baker Hughes

Bloomberg is reporting that: Dell is near deal to sell $5B of AI servers to Musks xAI. The servers are to include Nvidia Blackwell chips Shares of Dell spike higher to $116.88 up over 5% on the day. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high comes in at $117.80. Getting above

The NASDAQ index has moved back above the 20,000 level reaching a high of 20,006.26. The last time the price was above 20,000 was back on February 24. The high price that day reached 20,118.61 before rotating lower and closing below the 20,000 level at 19,954.30. At the same time, the S&P is back above

The next couple of points of inflation will be pretty important. Even if get better data on inflation, should be cautious on rates if labor market stays stronger, better inflation data doesn’t necessarily mean Fed can cut. Also focused on geopolitical, policy changes. We are taking our time to see how these affect economy. There

President Trump from says that he is working on pipeline held up by New York to bring down energy prices. 625 million acres of offshore that have been banned under Biden, will now be unmanned I don’t know but 625 million acres seems like a lot…..The all of US is 2.26B acres. Trump also signed

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count data showed small increases in oil and gas rigs: Oil rigs rose 1 to 481. Natural gas rose 1 to 101 Total rigs up 2 at 588 Crude oil is trading down -$0.58 and $70.72. For the trading week, the price of oil is down $-0.24 or -0.36% This

What classifies a AI supercomputer and it’s scope for managing the tax collectors, but my guess is that it has something to do with DOGE and Elon Musk initiative and if it levels the playing field, increasing revenues, eliminating tax fraud, etc. go for it. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

TSMC is reportedly interested in an Intel factory deal. The company is weighing taking a controlling stake in partnership and considering operating US Inte factories after a request from US Pres. Trump. Other tech firms may also take a stake in possible deal. Intel is currently without a CEO after the former CEO Pat Gelsinger

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy is addiing more color after meeting with US VP Vance: Had a good meeting with the US VP Vance. US and Ukraine teams will continue to work on critical minerals deal. Ready to move as fast as possible towards real peace This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Monday, February 16 10:30pm – AUD: Cash Rate (Forecast: 4.10%, Previous: 4.35%) AUD: RBA Monetary Policy Statement AUD: RBA Rate Statement Tuesday, February 18 2:00am – GBP: Claimant Count Change (Forecast: 10.0K, Previous: 0.7K) GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 8:30am – CAD: CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -0.4%) CAD: Median CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.4%, Previous:

Major US stock indices are closing mixed to end the trading week. The Dow industrial average closed lower. The S&P closed unchanged while the NASDAQ index closed higher. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average fell -165.35 points or -0.37% at 44546.08 S&P index felt -0.44 points or -0.01% at 6114.63. That was around

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump announces reciprocal tariffs: Could begin to impose some tariffs “within weeks” US January PPI +3.5% vs +3.2% y/y expected US initial jobless claims 213K versus 215K estimate Trump expressed support in the call for a European peacekeeping force in Zelensky call US treasury sells $25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield

The market reaction to today’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement from the White House revealed one of two things: Sell-the-fact (on the dollar) as this has been telegraphed for a week It’s a toothless threat aimed at getting negotiating leverage I’m biased towards the second explanation for the price action as we’ve continually seen tariff threats faded

Trump decides to go ahead with the Memorandum to introduce recipricol tariff plan. The USD moved higher and then it moved back down. The US stocks dipped a little and then rebounded. The US yields moved around as well but is now trading at session lows. The 10 year is down -11.5 basis points. In

None of the releases today are likely to move major FX around too much. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column

The AUDUSD is pushing the upper limit – well breaking through as I type . The next target comes in at 0.6331. Admittedly, the price has been in a volatile up and down range over the last 7 or so days. The low of the range comes in at 0.62348. The high at 0.63016. With

MUFG expects further JPY strength and downside risks for USD/JPY, driven by reversing global inflation trends, declining US yields, and BoJ rate hikes. While USD/CNY upside could exert short-term pressure on JPY, JPY is likely to weaken less than other G10 currencies due to its safe-haven status. Key Points: JPY Strength Driven by BoJ Policy

Meta shares were down as much of -$7.34 today. However, selling could be sustained and the price has pushed back to the upside. The current price is up $2.33 or 0.32% at $727.71. Looking at the daily chart, the price is tracking and skimming along the broken upside channel trendline. Each day is hard to

What’s left to say about gold at this point? It’s seemingly hit some kind of escape velocity as the momentum trade carries it daily despite varying risk trades, interest rate environments and tariff risks. It’s rallied nearly non-stop since the turn of the year. I tend to think that the catalyst was China restarting official

The major stock indices are closing higher, with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 1.5%. Meta shares closed higher for the 19th consecutive day after trading down over seven dollars at session lows. Shares of Meta shares are up some 18.6% over the streak and over 24% for the year. If

Credit Agricole acknowledges the bearish sentiment surrounding EUR/USD due to Eurozone underperformance, political risks, and US-EU trade tensions. However, they maintain a neutral EUR/USD outlook in the next three to six months, expecting a recovery toward 1.10 in the longer term. Key Points: Bearish EUR/USD Drivers in the Near Term: Cyclical Divergence → The Eurozone

The indications from the White House today suggest the Ukraine war is on the road to peace. I don’t find that to be a big surprise as Zelensky has talked about negotiations and Trump long campaigned for it. There have been reports it would be a multi-year process to remove Russian sanctions so the market

There is some mainstream optimism about DOGE but the savings and waste they’re finding is minuscule compared to the size of the deficit and one-third of spending is about to start going to interest costs. The Republican House proposed budget today has a deficit of $1.9 trillion and that’s after finding about $200 billion in

Shares of Tesla rebounded by 4% today after a string of selloffs uncluding a 6% drop yesterday. However in just the past few minutes, shares have given up some of today’s gain on a report from Fox’s Charlie Gasparino. Musk has told people he plans to spend the next four months working on DOGE; he’s

US stock indices close mixed on the day Reuters: Trump says will meet Putin probably in Saudi Arabia WTI crude settles nearly $2 lower on speculation the Russian crude will soon flow again US January Federal budget deficit $129.0B vs $95.5B expected The market is overlooking the most-important news of the day Trump is expected

The USDJPY stretched to a swing high of 154.79. Earlier today in a post, I wrote: The next key target lies in the 154.77–154.967 zone, where the 50% midpoint of the 2025 trading range sits at 154.897. This level, situated within the swing area (see red numbered circles), could act as a resistance zone where

More from Pres. Trump on call with Russia’s Putin: He and Putin ultimately expect to meet, probably in Saudi Arabia Call with Russia’s Putin lasted over one hour. Meeting with Putin will involve Saudi Crown Prince. Don’t think it’s practical for Ukraine to have NATO membership Haven’t committed to going to Ukraine. Putin says he

Given all the tariff uncertainty, I feel the need to highlight the first section of the United States constitution: The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States In all of Trump’s bluster

The major US stock indices are closing mixed on the day. The NASDAQ index squeaked out a small gain but erased a -228 point decline. The Dow industrial average and S&P index recovered off low levels, but still closed lower on the session. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -225.03 points or -0.50%

Wednesday or Thursday, does it matter? They are on the way is the key takeaway. Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs would match the import duties that other countries impose on U.S. goods. The goal is to reduce trade imbalances and protect American industries by ensuring that if a country charges a tariff on U.S. products, the

A report is out saying: Russian military jet intrudes on Polish airspace With Gaza and Ukraine/Russia still not pointing toward peace, the geopolitical risks are heating up a bit The price of gold today did extend to a new all-time high at $2942.71 (up $35.16), but then tumbled to a low of $2881.89. That took

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato says will assess the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy and respond appropriately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on the not very promising outlook for exemptions from tariffs on Australian steel & aluminium: Trump trade adviser: Australia ‘killing aluminium market’ – blow to tariff exemption hope This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The risk mood is improving once again and the S&P 500 is higher in what’s been a choppy day. The comments from Powell were a non-factor as he reiterated a wait-and-see attitude that’s nearly unanimous at the Fed. I noted a comment from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin who said that Trump’s bombastic tariff rhetoric is

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will monitor the impact of US tariff and immigration policies very interested in the new US administration’s policies USD/JPY not moving too much, circa 153.42. Ueda speaking in parliament. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A few points made by MUFG in a note, in summary. 1. BoJ Rate Hikes in September and December May Be Justified on Wages The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may find justification for interest rate hikes in both September and December if wage growth continues to show resilience, according to analysts at MUFG. With inflationary

USD/JPY has risen as more liquidity enters Asian morning trade. There is no fresh yen related news apart what has already been posted. Just crossing now: Japan industry minister Muto requested the US eclude Japan from steel and aluminium tariffs Current indications from Trump are ‘no exclusions’. Also, 2 year JGB yields are hitting their

Ueda to speak: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be speaking Wednesday, February 12, 2025 I don’t think he’ll be too dovish so he might stabilise the yen. We’ll see. USD/JPY has surged: Sheesh …. I popped up this hourly chart looking for some USD/JPY resistance. I am not seeing much until around 153.90, where

Crude oil futures are settling up one dollar at $73.32. The price rallied to one-week highs, supported by a weaker dollar and supply concerns stemming from U.S. sanctions on Russian crude production. Additional support came from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which raised crude selling prices for Asian buyers in March. On the downside,

Powell: We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust policy Powell Q&A: Don’t see any reason to be in a hurry to lower rates ECB Schnabel: Uncertainty in trade has risen dramatically Fed’s Williams: US to grow by around 2% this year and next Trump sends Bessent to Ukraine, says the war

1700 GMT/1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic a moderated discussion on the financial outlook for 2025 will examine the economic trends and uncertainties shaping the global economy. before the Atlanta chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I wrote yesterday about the big seasonal adjustments in the January CPI report. Today, Nick Timiraos at the WSJ expands on the same theme, noting that the January report is particularly impactful because of price resets at the turn of the year and that we’ve had particularly-large jumps in January in the past three years.

0900 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge will visit London and will discuss the economic situation and current monetary policy at JP Morgan — Sveriges Riksbank is the central bank of Sweden, and it operates independently from the European Central Bank (ECB). Sweden is a member of the European Union

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be in the Japanese parliament This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity: trend remains up for US equities this cyclical bull market remains in place at 28 months old only 62% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average the chart below shows a series of negative divergences, the likes of which tend to happen in the more

Earlier from the head of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, John Williams: Fed’s Williams: US to grow by around 2% this year and next He’s still going. If he has anything interesting to add I’ll post it up. He says he has no comment on policies set by elected officials. Says he

Major indices are closing with mixed results: Dow industrial average rose 123.24 points or 0.28% at 44593.65 S&P index rose 2.07 points or 0.03% at 6068.51 NASDAQ index fell -70.41 points or -0.36% at 19643.86 The small-cap Russell 2000 was also lower on the day with a decline of -12.23 points or -0.53% at 2275.70.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

NVDA Stock Technical Analysis: Important Junction to Watch After a 19%+ Rally After a massive rally of over 19%, NVIDIA (NVDA) stock is at a crucial technical juncture. In this comprehensive technical analysis, we dive deep into the key chart patterns, pivot points, and potential scenarios using advanced technical tools—most notably, the modified Schiff pitchfork.

Australian Q4 2024 data: New housing finance +1.4% q/q There was a 4.2% q/q rise in owner occupier loans investor lending -2.9% q/q overall loan volumes -0.4% q/q (investors -4.5%, own-occupiers +2.2%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal piece is gated: What We Know About Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Senior aide Peter Navarro is a major driver of the idea inside the White House In very brief: Trump’s team is working on reciprocal tariffs this week via executive action, bypassing Congress. Peter Navarro, a key Trump trade adviser, has long

Shares of Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta are on an all-time heater right now. They erased a morning selloff and are up for the 17th consecutive day in an incredible run that’s even more incredible given turmoil in other Mag 7 stocks. The market has come around to a few views: Zuckerberg will pivot the entire organization

Lawrence Summers is an American economist who served as the 71st United States Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001 director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010 Summers is hated by the righties. It’d be nice to focus on debating his ideas rather than hearing endless ad hominem attacks. But, yeah,

Earlier previews of the PCI data due today are here: More on what to watch for in Wednesday’s US CPI report USDJPY Technical Analysis – Focus on the US CPI report Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to

Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD tested key resistance levels toward the end of the U.S. session. NZDUSD: The pair reached a high of 0.56597, aligning with the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average, which now serves as a key resistance level. A breakout above this level would signal further bullish momentum. On the downside, the 200-hour moving average

1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Bank of England Policymaker and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Megan Greene, gives a speech at the UK’s Institute of Directors Topic is “Impact of global developments on the UK economy” The discussion will cover: The various channels for spillover from global developments, including trade, foreign exchange and markets

ECB’s Schnabel says: Uncertainty in trade has risen dramatically With the tariffs on steel and aluminum and threats of tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, and chips, the risks are indeed higher and not in a good way. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier from the head of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, John Williams: Fed’s Williams: US to grow by around 2% this year and next More from Fed’s Williams: The longer run trends are more neutral for inflation Adding more now: Hard to say if uncertainty issues are weighing on economyMonetary policy is

A piece from Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated) seeks to bury Federal Reserve Chair Powell: Trump’s best pick to succeed Powell at the Fed is this ‘battle-tested’ market expert It’s a litany of wrong: U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is now a lame duck. Wrong. Powell has lost control of the Federal Open

ANZ have published their forecast for the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday 19 February 2025. In brief: We expect a 50bp cut in the OCR to 3.75% next Wednesday. That would be consistent with RBNZ November messaging, economists’ forecasts, and market pricing. Data since the November Monetary Policy Review has been mixed, but overall consistent with

Trump comment comes at an event to welcome home a hostage released by Putin. More added in a separate post, but not on timings: Wall Street Journal on ‘what we know’ about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s government plans to hold an export strategy meeting next week to address the impact of recent U.S. tariff increases, according to acting President Choi Sang-mok on Wednesday. Choi acknowledged rising global trade uncertainties stressed the need for a thorough assessment of potential impacts on various industries indicated that the government would take necessary

The US dollar has taken a quick move lower and it’s not clear why. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier: White House says 25% steel tariffs would stack on top of other levies Reuters adding a little more now: Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports would be added onto other levies on Canadian goods, resulting in a total 50% tariff, a White House official said on Tuesday. Canada

I posted headline comment earlier: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will conduct monetary policy appropriately So far, that’s it from him, Reuters have a recap up, this is it, In full! Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday the central bank will continue to conduct its monetary policy with the aim of

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will conduct monetary policy appropriately in order to achieve the 2% inflation target stay tuned for more to come *** Ueda is answering questions in the Japanese parliament. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin Futures Analysis and Price Prediction for February 12, 2025 Bitcoin Futures (BTC) is currently trading at 96,165, and today’s analysis focuses on key technical levels, VWAP strategies, and volume profile insights to guide both bullish and bearish trade scenarios. 📈 Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bullish Trade Plan We turn bullish above 96,250, a key threshold

Japan’s Foreign Trade Council Chairman says Japan’s USD 1tln investment plan in the US is challenging. But achievable if public and private sectors work together in a strategic manner. Japan-US summit was an excellent start for the first meeting *** Of more importance today: Will Bank of Japan Governor Ueda rescue the JPY? Speaking at

High yield 4.300% WI level at the time of the auction 4.313% Tail -1.3 basis points vs six-month average of 0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.79Xvs. six-month average of 2.58X Directs (domestic buyers) 15.8% vs six-month averages 17.6% Indirects (international buyers) 74.0% vs six with average of 65.9%. Dealers 10.18% versus six-month average of

There isn’t much from Japan or Australia to move around the yen or AUD too much upone release. The data listed from China may or may not be today. It doesn’t have a scheduled time, either. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT.

Media reports on comments from Trump’s trade adviser Navarro are weighing on Australian hopes for an exemption on tariffs: Navarro spoke with CNN: “Australia is just killing our aluminium market,” (on exemptions_ “President Trump says no, no, we’re not, we’re not doing that anymore.” “What they do is they just flood our markets” “That’s what

Monetary policy well-positioned to achieve Fed goals Modestly restrictive policy should return inflation to 2% Inflation to hang around 2.5% this year and fall to 2% next year Fed has made significant progress lowering inflation Inflation expectations are well anchored US economy is in a good place Economic outlook is highly uncertain due to government

Elon Musk’s net worth has dropped below $400 billion for the first time in two months, driven by a sharp decline in Tesla stock price. Tesla shares and options account for more than 60% of Musk’s wealth, which peaked at $486.4 billion on December 17 following Trump’s election. However, since then, the automaker’s stock has

Reuters is reporting from a letter from Iran to UN Security Council Iran alerts UN Security Council to ‘deeply alarming and irresponsible’ remarks by Trump threatening use of force – Letter seen by Reuters. Iran says Trump’s reckless, inflammatory statements flagrantly violate international law – Letter. Iran firmly rejects and condemns Trump’s threat, says UN

The AUDUSD began the week with choppy, up-and-down price action, fluctuating around the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.62759. In both the Asian and European sessions, the pair attempted to break below this level but failed to sustain downside momentum. Each dip was met with buying interest, keeping the pair in a volatile range. In

So far any relationship hasn’t counted for much: Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others – no exception tariffs Key take away – Trump’s 25% steel and aluminium tariffs – NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries March 4 is the date due for

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just hinted at possible changes in how banks are regulated, and that could have big implications for crypto traders and investors. What Did Powell Say? Powell acknowledged that banking regulations might be too harsh, especially for smaller banks. He also admitted that some businesses and individuals are being debanked—losing access

It’s odd to send the Treasury Secretary rather than the Secretary of State to end a war but Trump seems to be angling towards some kind of rare earths deal, even though most of the rare earths are in the part of Ukraine that Russia has already won. In any case, here is Trump’s post:

The USD/CHF continues its upward momentum in the U.S. session, reaching a key swing area between 0.9128 and 0.91368. A decisive break above this level could open the door for a move toward the 2025 highs, with resistance near 0.9200, a level tested in both January (0.9200) and early February (0.91965). This swing area serves

Powell will begin speaking in Congress at 10 am ET but the Fed pre-released his opening statement. The US economy is strong overall Policy is well-positioned to deal with risks and uncertainties Can maintain policy for longer if economy remains strong and inflation does not move towards 2% Can ease if labor market unexpectedly weakens

We want to make more progress on inflation We are in a pretty good place with this economy We cannot control long rates (what about that decade of QE?) Higher mortgage rates are less related to Fed policy and more to Treasury yields View of risks on budget deficit, inflation expectations are among drivers of

The US stock have taken a turn to the downside with the NASDAQ index leading the way. The NASDAQ index is now down -0.64% at 19590. The low price just reached 19579.77. On the downside, the price of the NASDAQ is approaching its 200 hour moving average at 19569.54. (Green line on the chart below).

Trump’s latest tariff measures could have impact on French industry Europe should respond in a united and firm manner to Trump’s tariffs Hopes that the response will happen soon Any retaliation should likely come after Trump enacts reciprocal tariffs, if it happens. But on metal tariffs, Germany will be the one to feel the pinch

Sector Overview The US stock market is displaying a mixed bag today, with notable declines in the technology and semiconductor sectors, while consumer electronics sees positive movements. Let’s delve into the details: 📉 Technology & Semiconductors: The technology sector is struggling, marked by declines in major players like Microsoft (MSFT), down 0.52%, and Nvidia (NVDA),

Tarriff news is not encouraging: Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others – no exception tariffs Key take away – Trump’s 25% steel and aluminium tariffs – NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries The USD is inching a little higher, AUD/USD as an

Major currencies are little changed, with the dollar keeping steadier in general as Trump pushes forward with steel and aluminum tariffs. The 25% tariffs tears apart all existing deals and will go into effect on 4 March. But with a month to go, is there really going to be no exceptions? The market response has

The major European indices are closing higher. The German DAX and the Italy’s FTSE MIB are leading the way. For the German DAX, it is closing at a new all-time record level of 22034.14. The index reached a intraday record at 22046.41. For Italy’s FTSE MIB, it surged by 0.91% closing at 37582.04. That was

PU Prime has unveiled its newly redesigned website, offering an intuitive, seamless, and dynamic experience for both traders and investors. This upgrade focuses on more than just a fresh look, emphasizing enhanced accessibility and improved navigation across PU Prime’s extensive range of services, making it easier for users to engage with the platform. What’s New

. The GBPUSD has continued its upward momentum in early U.S. trading, breaking above the key swing area between 1.2351 and 1.2375. The pair is now pushing past the 1.2400 level, setting its sights on yesterday’s high of 1.24214. This resistance zone aligns with the 200-hour moving average at 1.24185 and the 100-hour moving average

Euro vs. USD: Weighing the Pros and Cons of the Euro’s Strength As of February 11, 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate of just shy of 1.032 with quite tight EURUSD spreads according to Bybit is shaped by a mix of economic trends, policy decisions, and global events. Some forces support a stronger euro, while others

Israel’s Netanyahu says that if it, it does not return averages by Saturday noo, intent fighting will resume until, as is finally defeated. Pres. Trump reiterated that response. He also says: Palestinians will live safely in another location that is not Gaza know we will be able to work out something he believes 99% that

The EURUSD is trading at new session highs and in the process has extended to the falling 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Both those moving averages come in near 1.03504. The level becomes a risk-defining level for traders. What that means is that sellers can lean against the level with a close stop on

Prior was -5.9% (revised to -5.6%) The increase was led by a 21.2% increase in the residential sector, largely due to gains in Ontario and British Columbia. Multi-unit residential +33.3% Single-family homes +1.8% Non-residential permits fell 5.9% for third consecutive decline The Canadian construction pipeline continues to churn out construction though much of it was

Will begin term on March 17 Alexopoulos will work with the Bank of Canada in a part-time capacity and will maintain her affiliation with the University of Toronto, where she is a professor of economics The BOC on Alexopoulos: Dr. Alexopoulos’ research focuses on the business cycle as well as the effects of technical change

The market isn’t fully priced for a cut until September, which is certainly ‘some time’ so I don’t see this kind of signalling as material. Patient approach to rates will give the Fed some time to assess the economy Fed is well-positioned to respond to changes in the economy Risks to inflation are now skewed

1350 GMT/0850 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack speaks on the economic outlook venue is the University of Kentucky Gatton School of Business and Economics 2025 Economic Outlook Conference 2030 GMT/ 1530 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams keynote remarks before the Pace University

Info is here: Trump and Australian PM Albanese have spoken (probably on steel tariffs) Key takeaway so far is that Trump will consider an exemption for tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium. “It was a very constructive and warm discussion” Albanese said during a news conference. after his phone conversation with Trump. This is in

Yesterday, influential Senator Lindsey Graham said that the ‘reality’ is that the US needs border, immigration and military funding now because “the money is drying up”. That led to him to call for an immediate bill on that and a later one on tax reform. In the House, Speaker Johnson yesterday indicated in a private

As the North American session starts yields are higher, stocks are lower, the USD is mixed but little changed. All the major currency pairs are within 0.22% of the closing level from yesterday. The dollar is lower vs the EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD and higher vs the JPY, CHF and CAD. Pres. Trump made

The White House said March 4 would be the date of tariffs but the text of the executive order on steel and aluminum says the new tariff rates will be effective from March 12. That leaves plenty of time for negotiations. Meanwhile, the Mexican economy minister is on the wires: Mexico is the main destination

The WSJ reports, citing ‘a US administration official’ that US 10% tariffs on China ‘could be paused’ if “serious headway” is made on fentanyl when Trump and Xi next speak. The pair were supposed to speak last week but the call was delayed and hasn’t been rescheduled. The WSJ says that’s because China hasn’t yet

This will be related to the last time Trump tried to stick tariffs on Oz steel the OZ PM at the time (Turnbull) explained to him it would push up the price of steel in the US b/c its cheaper to ship OZ steel to the US than make it there in the US. This

The snapshot above shows the small changes and tight ranges that dollar pairs are holding so far today. The dollar is keeping steadier as a whole from yesterday, as traders are still digesting Trump’s tariffs since the weekend. He announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum as expected but now we’ll have to wait and

President Trump officially announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., despite granting a 30-day reprieve for Canadian exports last week. Canada, a major exporter of these metals to the U.S., is directly impacted. Trump also talked of tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and chips Following the announcement, USDCAD initially tested

We will evaluate Trump economic and trade policies as they come in It’s unclear how much last year’s rate cuts have factored into the economy We may be close to the neutral rate Housing has been a stickier part of the inflation equation Housing inflation pressure may be set to ease Comments from Powell are

Prior was 105.1 The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.3 points in January to 102.8. This is the third consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100 – the third highest recorded reading – after two months of decline (tariffs?) NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking on Tuesday: 1515 GMT/0715 US Eastern time speech at Chicago Booth’s London campus title is “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets” The Bank cut its main rate last week ForexLive European FX news wrap: BOE cuts bank rate as expected but surprise Mann vote (Mann the dove

As an activist policymaker, I chose 50 bps now, along with continued restrictiveness in the future, and a higher long-term bank rate to “cut through the noise” Notwithstanding the 50 bps cut now, structural impediments to achieve inflation target on a sustained basis are not yet fully purged Current and likely continued weak demand conditions

Will work to ensure that American AI is the gold standard Trump administration will ensure that most powerful AI systems are built in the US US wants to partner with the world on AI as well Excessive regulation could kill transformative AI industry There’s going to be a lot of conversation about inclusivity and open/shared

Trump says: no exceptions or exemptions we are doing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium Trump signs two proclamations that extend the original 2018 Section 232 investigation. Aluminum tariffs are being raised to 25% from 10%. Proclamations will reinstate a 25% tariff on steel imports for all countries. Capacity utilization in the steel industry

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann in the Financial Times, Reuters with the main points: UK inflation is becoming less of a threat as corporate pricing power weakens, says a Bank of England official. Bank of England’s Catherine Mann: “I can see pricing coming very close to [2 percent] target-consistent [levels] in the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

PU Prime is launching Feather Your Trades, a promotion aimed at supporting traders in managing losses and maintaining confidence in their trading activities. Running from 15 January to 15 February 2025, clients can redeem up to $30 in Trade Loss Vouchers to offset losses on eligible closed trades. How It Works · Clients can access

Gold hit a record high above USD 2940. It hasn’t held there: There is no fresh news. Like, has everyone just realized its an expensive paperweight? (Gold bugs, I’m sorry, only joking) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Presidents Speak at Kentucky and New York Events Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking on Tuesday Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking again later on Tuesday Fed expected to delay rate cuts as

“If they charge us, we charge them.” That is the premise that Trump is going with in wanting to impose reciprocal tariffs, in particular the US’ main trading partners with those that have “relatively large trade deficits with the US and apply relatively high tariffs”. The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum was largely anticipated

Another day, another life lost in a US aviation incident. Video of the collision is here: officials say it appears the left main landing gear failed upon landing, causing the collision This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday as Trump floated reciprocal tariffs. That came after a good US NFP report where the data was mixed at best but still pointing to strength. The jump in average hourly earnings caught the eye but that might have been distorted by the drop in average

US January NFIB small business optimism index 102.8 vs 104.6 expected US vice president Vance: US laws will keep big tech on a level playing field FX continues to hold little changed on the session BOE’s Mann says sided with 50 bps rate cut to “cut through the noise” EU trade commissioner says US will

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday as Trump floated reciprocal tariffs. That came after a good US NFP report where the data was mixed at best but still pointing to strength. The jump in average hourly earnings caught the eye but that might have been distorted by the drop in average

Deeply regrets tariffs by Trump administration Latest tariffs are a lose-lose scenario Trade thrives on predictability and fair rules EU prepared to face up to any challenges in this new era Meanwhile, von der Leyen is also out saying that “unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered”. Adding that the EU will trigger

Earlier re the UK: BoE’s Mann says UK inflation is less of a threat, prices coming close to 2% target *** British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for January 2025:Like for like sales +2.5% y/y prior +3.1% Total sales +2.6% y/y, partly inflated by weak year-ago data and a December boost from Black Friday timing differences.

Tariffs are taxes They are bad for business and worse for consumers US will be taxing its own citizens by imposing tariffs It will raise costs for its own businesses and fuel inflation He’s not wrong there as households will be the ones feeling the pinch in all of this. Higher tariffs means higher prices

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

NY Fed Jan. survey of consumer expectations shows one year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% last ECB’s Lagarde: The conditions for a recovery remain in place Elon Musk tries to buy OpenAI – report David Tepper put his money behind his mouth Israel’s Netanyahu to hold security cabinet meeting to discuss Hamas hostage release delay France’s

It’s going to be another dull day in terms of data releases with just the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index on the agenda. The focus will be on Fed Chair Powell Testimony and a potential announcement of reciprocal tariffs by Trump (today or tomorrow). Fed Chair Powell is unlikely to offer anything new since

France’s finance minister Lombard: Europe will answer to US tariff moves as strongly as the position of the United States We are prepared to do whatever is necessary to be balanced, we are ready Digital tax is unrelated to the trade war and will not be changed This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

During Trump’s first term, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull successfully convinced Trump to exempt Australia from the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. This was in March 2018. Here’s how it happened: Key Points of How Turnbull Secured the Exemption: Economic Arguments Turnbull Used: Higher Costs for U.S. Businesses and Consumers Turnbull and Australian

Credit to David Tepper. Whenever someone goes on TV like he did in late September to pump stocks it raises some red flags. We are seeing some very dubious promotions in crypto lately and the stock market has a long history of the same. He went on CNBC on September 26 and talked about Chinese

The uptrend remains in place for gold, jumping nearly 1% today: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.1% The market mood is a little more subdued on the day, with S&P 500 futures also seen down 0.3%. It’s still early and the focus right now will be on Trump’s supposed reciprocal tariffs after the metal tariffs announced overnight. This article was written by Justin Low

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger since last Friday as Trump floated reciprocal tariffs. That came after a good US NFP report where the data was mixed at best but still pointing to strength. The jump in average hourly earnings caught the eye but that might have been distorted by the drop in average

Trump extended steel and aluminum tariffs to apply to all imports, effectively ending agreements with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, and other countries. The new executive order strengthens the original 2018 tariffs—set at 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum—by increasing duties, closing loopholes, and removing exemptions, according to a White House official.

Australia February Consumer Sentiment +0.1% to 92.2 prior -0.7% (92.1) Westpac monthly survey. Wait until the headlines hit the mass media in Australia about Trump’s ‘no exemption’ steel and aluminium tariffs. Australian media are very keen to stir up panic. Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others – no exception tariffs Key

Via Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, collecting estimates: If the consensus proves correct this is on the money: Fed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll) Funny thing is, I guess, that the folksin that Reuters poll are include the folks in the above table. This article

The US data is due on Wednesday, February 12, 2025 for CPI and Thursday for PPI. both at 8.30 am US Eastern time (0130 GMT) Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline CPI, but core inflation to pick up Deutsche Bank economists expect U.S. consumer price growth to slow in January, with headline CPI rising 0.22% month-over-month,

The highlight of this week on the economic calendar is the January US CPI report. It will likely be a market mover and could change the narrative around the pace of Fed easing. Consensus estimates: CPI m/m +0.3% CPI y/y +2.9% Core CPI m/m +0.3% Core CPI y/y +3.1% Now it’s tough to say what

McDonald’s Stock (MCD): Buy the Dip or Chase the Rally? Post-Earnings Setup for MCD McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) reported earnings on February 10th before the market opened, and the options market had priced in a 3.7% expected move. However, the actual reaction was stronger, with the stock jumping approximately 4.8%. So far, MCD is holding onto

The U.S. Federal Reserve is now expected to hold off on cutting interest rates until next quarter, as concerns over inflation grow, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Many who previously anticipated a March rate cut have now pushed back their forecasts. A majority of economists surveyed between February 4-10 expect at least one

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0275 through to 1.0320. The expiries don’t tie it with any major technical levels, so they’re going to function on their own today. As things stand, Trump headlines are still driving markets

Catherine Mann, Bank of England policymaker and member of the Monetary Policy Committee is hitting the speaking circuit today: 0845 GMT/0345 US Eastern time, gives a lecture on Britain’s economic prospects at Leeds Beckett University 1730 GMT/1230 US Eastern time, speaks at central bank event in Sheffield Mann spoke earlier, I don’t expect she stray

Here’s a new report from the WSJ: A consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI, upping the stakes in his battle with Sam Altman over the company behind ChatGPT. Musk’s attorney, Marc Toberoff, said he submitted the bid to OpenAI’s board of directors Monday.

Up until the 2000s, the US was the biggest producer of aluminum globally but since then it’s all about China. For some context, the US now produces nearly ten times less than what China is doing. And in terms of imports, the US roughly imports 50% of its aluminum from other countries as of the

Trump threatens to cancel ceasefire if Hamas does not release all hostages: Trump has warned that if Hamas does not release all Israeli hostages by midday Saturday, he will push to cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and allow military action to resume “If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I’d say

There are two big things to watch this week: 1) Trump’s next tariffs Trump has promised ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday but they won’t go into effect immediately. It’s not clear exactly what he’s after here but the market reaction has been telling. Spoos gapped down 30 points at the open but were immediately

Canada’s industry minister says U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are “totally unjustified.” says he is consulting with international partners on the US steel and aluminum tariffs and that Canada’s response will be “clear and calibrated.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Exporters of steel to the US will be slammed hard. Details are here: White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries Key takeaway is “no exceptions, no exemptions”. More: Trump says also looking at tariffs on cars, chips and pharmaceuticals does not mind if other countries retaliate Trump has said, though, that

None of these data points are likely to move major FX around too much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in

The AUD/USD pair experienced a decline in early Asian Pacific trading as markets reacted to the looming threat of tariffs on steel and aluminum. The drop brought the pair close to the rising 200-hour moving average, which served as a critical support level. This is not the first time this level has been tested recently;

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley saiy the euro may gain strength against the dollar if the EU manages to avoid heavy tariffs from Trump. They anticipated that in late 2025, the U.S. will introduce gradual and targeted tariffs on the EU, following the reinstatement of Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, they believe these targeted measures

National Australia Bank business survey, for January 2025: Business Confidence +4, improved on expectations of lower interest rates prior -2.0 Business Conditions +3 prior 6.0 sales (down 4 to 6) and profits (down 6 to -2) declined margin pressures, particularly in retail Alan Oster, NAB’s chief economist says “Cost pressures remain high for businesses, but

Mike Simonsen at Altos is out with a great report today highlighting some of the weakness in the US housing market. That’s not a huge surprise because US 30-year fixed rates remain around 6.9% but it’s an under-appreciated risk in the US economy. Some stats: Immediate sales down 30%y/y 27.8% more homes available now than

Israel’s Netanyahu is to hold a security cabinet meeting to discuss Hamas hostage release delay. Meanwhile, Egyptian security force mediator fears a breakdown in the peace agreement. Hamas told mediators that Israel was not serious about carrying out phased cease-fire Hamas told mediators that US guarantees for the cease-fire are no longer in place given

Here is a telling chart from Scotia highlighting gold year-end targets from Wall Street for 2025-2027. It shows nearly no one at or above spot and the consensus way below the current price of $2905. As for Scotia, they highlight a handful of drivers and potential drivers for gold in the year ahead: In 2025,

The major European indices are starting the week with gains across the board. The UK FTSE 100 led the charge with a gain of 0.77%. Spain’s Ibex was the laggard with a rise of 0.16%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.57% France’s CAC +0.42% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.77% Spain’s Ibex +0.16%

I don’t even know whether to address this one because the details are so thin but I expect we will hear more about it. “There could be a problem, we’ve been reading about that, with Treasuries,” Trump told reporters Sunday on Air Force One. “That could be an interesting problem because it could be that

Trump: I will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tues or Wed China Consumer Price inflation picked up in January, accelerated faster than expected Russia throws cold water on peace talks Trump says it’s time to get rid of the penny China may target US tech firms as a trade war strategy Politico report indicates that Republican

The USDCAD is trading to a new session low despite the threat of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. Last week, Pres. Trump announced that they would impose a tariff of 25% on Mexico and Canada, but then gave a 30 day reprieve if they shored up the border. Each country pledged manpower

Prior month one year inflation expectations 3.0% one year and three year inflation expectations remain unchanged at 3.0% five year inflation expectations 3% up from 2.7% prior month January saw larger expected rise for food, gas, rent, college, medical prices. January expected spending levels decline to lowest level since January 2021. Labor market expectations were

Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% That is what’s at stake for this week but so far, the early signs are optimistic. Investors are shrugging off Trump’s tariff threats with US futures also sitting higher. S&P 500 futures opened with a gap

S&P 500 futures opened 30 points lower but the dip was bought almost immediately, and aggressively. The loss was halved in a minute and the bids have been steady since. Futures are now up 15 points, chewing into Friday’s cash loss of 57 points. I think a big part of that reversal is that ‘reciprocal’

Technology surges while Tesla stumbles: Navigating today’s mixed market Sector Overview: Tech Triumphs, Auto Struggles Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a robust performance in the technology sector, marked by notable gains in key companies. Microsoft (MSFT) rises by 0.71%, and Nvidia (NVDA) increases by 0.72%. Most remarkably, Broadcom (AVGO) leads with an impressive gain of

Ukraine President Zielinski this to me US VP Vance before the Munich security conference. It was reported that Pres. Trump talked with Russia’s Pution over the weekend. Last week solidity said it was imperative that Trump speaks to him before speaking to Putin. Trump promised in his election campaign that he would end the war

I find it odd that CAD is under-performing in the early going. USD/CAD is up 70 pips or 0.5% to 1.4360. The loonie is the weakest currency among all the majors. The trigger was Trump talking about reciprocal tariffs along with steel/aluminum tariffs. The steel/aluminum tariffs are a factor for the loonie but I wouldn’t

ECBs Lagarde is on the wires saying: The conditions for recovery remain in place Inflation is a set to return to our 2% medium-term target in the course of this year, with risks on both the upside and the downside The ECB is not pre-committed to a particular rate path . Frequency of shocks likely

Pres. Trump has ordered the stopping of penny production from the US Treasury. It is unsure whether or not the president has the authority to stop production, but citing the high cost of production and the DOGE initiative to cut costs, the order has been made. The production of the penny cost the US Mint

This as confirmed by the EU side. For some context, US vice president Vance is flying over for the Paris AI Action Summit with a meeting with China also on the cards. It’s going to be quite a high-profile week in terms of politics as such with trade and AI all on the agenda in

Domestic sight deposits CHF 428.1 bn vs CHF 432.9 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There is one more economic released today. The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations will be released at the top of the hour. Last month showed: Inflation Expectations: 1-year horizon: Unchanged at 3.0%. 3-year horizon: Increased to 3.0% (from 2.6%). 5-year horizon: Declined to 2.7% (from 2.9%). Job Turnover Expectations: Probability of losing one’s

The major US stock indices are higher. The Dow industrial average is the laggard with a gain of 0.26%. The broader S&P index is up 0.62%, and the NASDAQ index is up 1.15%. The economic calendar is like with the employment trends index the only release today. It dipped to 108.35 from 109.23 last month.

Bitcoin Futures Trade Compass – February 10, 2025 Current Price: $98,295Bias: Bullish Above $99,120, Bearish Below $97,850 Today’s Bitcoin Futures Trade Plan Overview Bitcoin Futures is up 2.4% from Friday’s close, currently trading at $98,295. The Trade Compass today signals a bullish breakout above $99,120, as this level surpasses Friday’s highest VWAP level and last

EURUSD: The EURUSD gapped marginally lower (in relation to the previous week) as tariff fear continue to increase inflation fears, However, prices rebounded higher only to find resistance sellers within a swing area between 1.0330 and 1.0343. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from January 24 high is also in play at 1.03329. Staying

With the US jobs report behind us, the employment trend index for January is now out: prior month 109.70 revised to 109.23 Employment trends for January 108.35 On Friday, nonfarm payrolls rose by 143K which was lower than the 170K estimate. The unemployment rate however dipped to 4.0% from an expected 4.1%. The market pays

The day after….no not the Super Bowl,..the US jobs report which had mostly strong. The Unemployment rate fell to 4%. The number of jobs added was less than expectations but the revisions were higher. However, benchmark revisions were lower for 2024. The earnings were higher but it could have been influenced by Wall Street bonuses.

There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 and 1.0350 levels. The pair opened with a gap lower today amid a stronger dollar from tariff fears, again. But we’re seeing price action slowly eat into the gap

USD/CHF buyers attempted to break above a key swing area earlier today, defined between 0.9108 and 0.9115, but failed to hold above this resistance zone. This swing area remains a critical technical level, and a decisive break above it would signal increased bullish momentum for the pair. The inability to sustain above this zone suggests

Fundamental Overview Gold jumped to yet another all-time high today following renewed tariffs fears. In fact, over the weekend, Trump talked about imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium on all countries on Monday and that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday. This is giving gold a boost not only from

Chinese stocks are on a roll, particularly tech stocks. That’s helped the Hang Seng to the best levels since October, breaking the November and December highs today. That’s a nice looking chart that points to a re-test of the October highs. That said, China stocks look to be inching towards a main-stream trade which is

The major US stock indices are struggling off the weekend US tariff news. Pres. Trump is looking to impose a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imports. He is looking to enact reciprocal tariffs on all countries by Tuesday or Wednesday. The markets are getting used to the rhythm of the US president or

The threat of a trade war, escalating geopolitical tensions, and just the right amount of uncertainty has been a good recipe for gold to surge higher since the turn of the year. In January, the challenge was about staying above the 100-day moving average (red line) but with Treasury yields falling now the focus turns

Prior was +¥3352.5 billion Separately, January bank lending rose 3.0% y/y vs +3.1% previously. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trade Compass for Nasdaq Futures – February 10, 2025 Current Price: 21,690Bias: Short (Fade the Move)Short Activation Level: 21,708Bullish Activation Level: 21,780 Trade Plan Overview for Nasdaq Futures Today The Trade Compass today is, as usual, bullish above a key level and bearish below another. BUT… there is a condition for the bearish scenation whereby

German DAX futures +0.1% French CAC 40 futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.1% Trump threatened with more tariffs over the weekend and that led to a bit of a scare in the early hours today. S&P 500 futures were down by over 30 points but are now up 16 points (+0.3%) ahead of European trading.

This is already what Trump did in 2018 and we responded So, we will again respond Ready to push the trigger when the time has come and now it has It is in nobody’s interest to start a commercial war with the EU Trump is threatening with fresh 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum

The dollar might have surrendered gains elsewhere on the session but USD/JPY is proving to be an exception to that at least for now. The pair is up 0.5% to 152.15 currently and is keeping underpinned in European trading. There’s not much of a catalyst but Treasury yields also holding a touch higher is perhaps

On Air Force One, the US President told reporters that more tariffs are coming. He said he will announce 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum on Monday. That’s a legitimate threat and something he has the power to do under current investigations/statues under Section 232. I don’t doubt that’s coming. He also

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectations Gold Technical Analysis – Tariffs are back on the menu Can gold extend its winning streak to seven weeks? ECB’s de Guindos: It is very important to avoid a trade war Eurozone February Sentix investor confidence -12.7 vs -16.3 expected SNB total sight deposits w.e. 7 February CHF

So much for that. Lately there has been some buzz that Russia and Ukraine were headed towards peace talks. There was some detail to go with the talk too as Easter was floated as a deadline and JD Vance is supposedly headed to Germany this week to lay out some details of the US proposal.

To increases residents’ income, promote reasonable wage growth To increases support for consumer goods trade-in program Will better meet housing consumption needs, support new forms of consumption To introduce more practical and effective measures to stabilise foreign investment Again, these are all on the surface comments for the most part. There needs to be more

White House advisor Hassett on CNBC says: Trump will stop waivers and steel at a time of his own choosing India has enormously high tariff rates This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil eventually fell below the key 72.00 support zone and kept the bearish trend intact. The bulls will now need to see the price rising back above that level to regain some conviction. The latest moves came from the tariffs fears at the beginning of last week which gave the crude oil

Chinese officials are building a list of U.S. technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust probes and other tools, the WSJ reports. It says the strategy is to “collect as many cards” to play as possible in negotiations and highlights Apple, Broadcom and Synopsys. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Last week, copper had a great performance following the easing in trade war fears. In fact, we tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China weighed on the market initially but as we got the pause in tariffs for Canada and Mexico following positive talks, the market bounced back strongly. The positive sentiment continued throughout

Today is going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday as we have a pretty empty day in terms of data releases. The only notable release could be the NYFed Inflaiton Expectations survey as it comes after the jump in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey. The long term expectations remain pretty anchored

This is a straight win and should have been done long ago. We did it in Canada a decade ago and prices are rounded up or down to the nearest nickel if you’re paying cash. If you pay by card, you pay the exact price. No one misses pennies here and it’s the same in

Euro Analysis for Today: Order Flow Signals Bearish Pressure in 6E Futures Euro traders are closely watching EUR/USD futures (6E), now trading at 1.035 as order flow data reveals a shift in market momentum. While the Euro initially saw bullish attempts, renewed selling pressure has started to take control, raising questions about whether the market

Japanese 10-year yields are only up a single basis point today but it’s instructive to take a look at the long-term monthly chart of Japanese yields as they show a worrisome trajectory, even if the absolute level is still low. I wouldn’t expect the FX market to get too excited until 2% but that would

We need a prudent and intelligent approach regarding latest tariffs announcement Need to keep a clear head Our analysis on tariffs is that it leads to impact on supply The impact on inflation is less clear Have to take into account all factors on monetary policy He’s mostly reaffirming a meeting-by-meeting approach as they are

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 36 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 86 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 61 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 55 bps (67% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 80 bps

Prior -17.7 Euro area investor morale picked up in February, with the reading being the highest since July last year. It still sits in negative territory but at least there’s a slight improvement in the outlook for Germany. Sentix notes that “Germany’s recessionary economy is hanging like a lead weight” but “there is now hope

NASDAQ Monthly Analysis: Order Flow Signals a Weakening Bullish Trend The Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) have been on an impressive five-month bullish run, posting consecutive gains and reaching new highs. However, a closer look at order flow dynamics suggests that momentum may be slowing down, raising the question: Is a pullback on the horizon? While

The US dollar has been range-bound against the yuan so far this year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Monday starts slow, with no significant economic data scheduled for the FX market. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence data. Fed Chair Powell is set to testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington, D.C. On Wednesday, the key event will be

Our friend Neil Sethi from Sethi Associates brings us a note from Bank of America today that highlights some potential CTA buying: BoA sees a notable amount of likely CTA buying in the SPX on Monday with vol control funds also adding, perhaps giving a boost to markets Monday, he writes. S&P 500 futures are

The dollar opened with a gap higher today but has largely gave back those gains, keeping just marginally higher on the day for the most part. USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 152.00 and USD/CAD up 0.3% to 1.4340 but besides that, the changes among other dollar pairs are minimal currently. Trump’s tariff threats are once

S&P 500 futures opened for the week down just 28 points and quickly pared that to 15 points. There will be some twists and turns but the market is sensing that Trump doesn’t actually want a trade war. It took the market one minute to buy-the-dip. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German Chancellor Scholz — who isn’t long for government — was asked if the EU is prepared for possible US tariffs and said “yes, we can act in an hour.” In reality, they will have a summit or two and make a mess of it. He was asked about tariffs because Trump said something about

Politco reports on the latest state of play as Republicans try to use a razor-thin majority in the House to cobble together a plan to deliver on Trump’s tax agenda. They highlight a fight between the bill writers and budget hawks led by Chip Roy. The report says that the latest costing on promises they’re

There was some (slim?) hope last week that the US and China would negotiate a way to avoid tariffs when there were reports about a phone call between the two. That call was evidently called off, though there is still hope the call will occur. The US additional tariff on China went into effect last

Capitalism is working as intended in the Chinese automotive market. A surge of competitors into the country is leading to intense competition that’s driving down prices and/or boosting incentives. CNBC today writes about the flurry of companies offer 0% interest loans for five years, some without even a downpayment. In addition, some are offering insurance

Happy Monday. Eamonn is off today so I’ll be sitting in. Here are the early price levels: Euro: 1.0305 (-0.0022, -0.21% change) Japanese Yen: 151.33 (-0.07, -0.05% change) British Pound: 1.2393 (-0.0016, -0.13% change) Swiss Franc: 0.9089 (-0.0005, -0.08% change) U.S. Dollar: 1.4294 (0, 0% change) Australian Dollar: 0.6262 (-0.0009, -0.14% change) New Zealand Dollar:

Reciprocal tariffs will go into effect almost immediately Trump says he will announce 25% steel and aluminum tariffs on Monday Steel and aluminum tariffs to apply to all countries Nippon Steel can’t have a majority stake in US Steel There is usually a process for this so we will see how it actually shakes down.

Does Trump want tariffs to raise revenue or does he want foreign countries to lower barriers? His comments and actions indicate he wants it both ways. On Friday, the market was concerned about the latest comments from Trump. “I’ll be announcing that next week — on reciprocal trade — so that we’re treated evenly with

China January CPI 0.5% y/y, highest level in five months expected 0.4%, prior 0.1% core was 0.6% y/y, from 0.4% in December the m/m was 0.7% (expected 0.8%, prior 0.0%) PPI -2.3% y/y, deflation continued expected -2.1%, prior -2.3% *** China’s consumer inflation accelerated in January, reaching its highest level in five months, while producer

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: NYFed Inflation Expectations. Tuesday: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed Chair Powell Testimony. Wednesday: US CPI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, BoC Meeting Minutes. Thursday: Japan PPI, UK GDP, Switzerland CPI, US PPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI. Friday: US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Wednesday The

Two weeks ago, I made the case for Chinese equities in the fallout from DeepSeek. Since then, we’ve seen Goldman Sachs write that breakthroughs in AI development and application “could materially alter” the Chinese stock market trajectory. This week, Deutsche Bank also came out with a extremely bullish note, highlighting the upside of Chinese stocks

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower for the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -444.23 points, or -0.90% at 44303.40 S&P index -57.58 points or -0.95% at 6025.99 NASDAQ index -268.59 points or -1.36% at 19523.40 Russell 2000-27.41 points or -1.19% at 2279.70 For the trading week, the declines

Prior month -$7.49 B revised to -$5.37% US consumer credit for December came in higher than expected at $40.85B vs $12.35 B est. Revolving credit +$22.9B vs -$13.9B last month Nonrevolving credit +$18.0B vs +$8.5 B last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Here is the stream for the Trump-Ishida press conference: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump comments Prepared to double defense spending by 2027 Approved $1B in foreign military sales for Japan Discussed how our two nations can stay on the cutting edge of artificial intelligence Japan assumed beginning 40 new shipments of American liquefied natural gas We are going to work on trade deficit with Japan We can

Fed Governor Kugler: Stable labor market gives the Fed time to make decisions Not at 2% inflation makes sense to hold rates steady Wants to make sure inflation progress continues The economy is resilient and the labor market is healthy INflation rate has gone sideways and firmed Watching money markets closely as the balance sheet

The USD moved sharply higher at the start of the week on the Canada and Mexico tariff news. Those tariffs got a reprieve and the USD moved lower. Today, the greenback was mixed after the jobs report and the Michigan consumer sentiment but for the week, the greenback was mostly lower. The only currency that

In a joint statement, Reiterate opposition by China to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea. Opposition to Chinese militarization in the South China Sea was expressed, calling for a peaceful resolution of Taiwan Strait issues. Intention was confirmed to upgrade command and control frameworks of U.S. and Japanese forces, increasing

Major US stock indices close sharply lower. US consumer credit for December $40.85B vs $12.35B estimate Details of the joint statement from Pres. Trump and Japan PM Ishiba Crude oil futures settled at $71 a barrel Trump: Japan to double defense spending by 2027. US committed to the defense of Japan Ukraine Zelenskiy to Trump:

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy is on the wires saying: Russia controls half of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, less than 20% of Ukraine’s mineral wealth. On Trump’s call for Kyiv to supply rare earths: “Let’s do a deal,” but stresses the need for security guarantees. It is “very important” to meet U.S. President Trump in person before Trump

Crude oil futures settled $71 a barrel, up $0.39 or 0.55%. For the week, the price of crude oil has moved down -2.12% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trudeau’s remarks: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion of absorbing Canada is “a real thing” and linked to Canada’s rich natural resources. Context: Trudeau made the comments during a closed-door meeting with business and labor leaders discussing Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian imports. Accidental report: The remarks were mistakenly broadcast

Joe Biden rejecting the Nippon Steel bid for US Steel based on ‘national security’ concerns marks one of the low points of his Presidency. It was a non-sensical decision at the same time as the administration was paying foreign companies to build and own chip fabs in the USA. Trump also spoke out against it,

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright was recently confirmed and spoke with CNBC just now. He was asked about oil coming in from Canada. Wright: Obviously the Canadian energy system is integrated with the US system. I don’t think we’re going to see that change. As the President has said, this is a drug war, this

Jobs report shows neither weakening nor overheating Recent progress on inflation is slow and uneven Sees considerable uncertainty on economic effects of new policy proposals Continued productivity gains would help Fed attain goals, Will watch developments closely and assess data This is yet-another victory lap and pledge to ‘wait and see’ from a Fed official.

Japan PM Ishiba and Pres. Trump are meeting in Washington. Trump says: We want to work on deficit with Japan Want to get it down to even He will make an announcement next week on recipricol trade. There are many countries that tariffs will apply Tariiffs on Japan are an option to address the deficit

Amazon shares are in focus today and are down 2.9% after reporting earnings late yesterday. Neither that, nor the 5-6 bps rise in yields across the curve is weighing too heavily on the market. S&P 500 futures are fractionally higher ahead of the open. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

More from Pres. Trump: Says that there is no rush on Gaza Want to speak to Putin Expect to talk to Zelenskiy next week. Want to discuss security of their assets like rare earths Calls Deep Seek a good development Says auto tariffs are on the table with Japan Meanwhile, as Trump talks of tariffs,

Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.3% The drop in December owes much to a decline in production in the automotive industry, which was down 10.0% compared to the month before. Excluding energy and construction, the headline reading is much worse with the decline being 3.3% compared to November. As a whole last year, German industrial production

Lowest reading since July 2024 Prior was 71.1 Current conditions 68.7 vs 73.0 expected Expectations 67.3 vs 70.0 expected 1-year inflation 4.3% vs 3.3% prior 5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.2% prior One-year inflation expectations jumped in January to the highest since Nov 2023. That’s obviously tariff fears but the fed might take some comfort in

The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, February 7, 2025, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. Adam had a preview posted earlier: January non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Positive signs abound This also: Goldman Sachs non-farm payroll preview – the underlying labor market remains solid You can see

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance.

It’s been a week! I can’t believe the Mexico/Canada tariff war was at the start of the week. In any case, the first week of February ends today with non-farm payrolls. The consensus is +170K in a decline from +256K in December but there are some indications of a stronger number. That said, eyes will

Reuters tossed a hand grenade into markets today with a report that Trump could announce reciprocal tariffs as soon as today. Let’s sort this out. … The US has low tariffs rates and most other countries have higher rates. The idea is that the US would put tariffs on those countries equal to what they

With Amazon reporting after the close yesterday, the only Magnificent 7 name left to report is Nvidia. They won’t announce earnings until February 26. Next week the earnings will be highlighted by the likes of McDonald’s, Shopify, Coca-Cola, and Moderna. Below is a scheduled list of earnings from some of the large-cap names: Monday: Before

The NZD/USD fell sharply on Monday, reaching its lowest level since October 2022, following tariff news. However, the pair rebounded after tariffs on Mexico and Canada were delayed by 30 days. The price spiked higher, retraced into a key swing area between 0.5581 and 0.5592, then bounced to extend even higher. On Wednesday, the pair

CNBC reports ‘timing of reciprocal tariffs is premature’ for today but could be on the agenda next week. The idea is some kind of order that would put tariffs of foreign countries that equal their tariffs on US goods. That said, it’s very unlikely that he has that power. This article was written by Adam

Bernd Lange, who heads the trade committee in the European parliament spoke with the Financial Times and said the bloc was willing to lower its 10% import tax on cars “closer” to the 2.5% charged by the US in an effort to avoid a trade war. “We can try to have a deal before escalating

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance.

EURUSD: In the first minute of trading after the US jobs report, the EURUSD traded a range of 1.0362 up to 1.0411. Since then, the price moved to a low of 1.0348, and then bounced to a corrective high at 1.0376 and volatile trading. Of significance technically in that corrective move higher is that 200-hour

The US dollar rose on this and stock markets fell. There are any details in the report that cites two unnamed sources saying Trump told Republican lawmakers he plans to issue reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday (today). It’s not clear who these are aimed at and the report doesn’t say. Trump has talked about

Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a mixed picture with technology stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) up by 0.14% and a surge in semiconductors as Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 0.42% and Broadcom (AVGO) shoots up by 1.60%. However, consumer cyclical sectors like Amazon (AMZN) have taken a hit, dropping by 2.99%. Technology: Boosted by gains

The US dollar is steadily bleeding lower in the aftermath of the non-farm payrolls report. The data was mixed with a softer headline but lower unemployment. Wages rose but it was due to benchmark revisions and fewer hours worked, suggesting a one-off effect. The bond market took it all as bearish, with US yields up

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance.

Reuters is talking about ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on European countries but a separate interview with White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett might offer a clearer picture of the agenda. In an interview with Bloomberg, Hassett said Trump was “reciprocity” in how firms are taxed Hassett said that in 2023, US firms paid $370 billion abroad in

Don’t see a recession right now, sees a gradual recovery Expects inflation, including services, to come down Already have wage moderation, expect that to continue March and April will be key for a clearer picture on rate path Tariff threats are a great source of uncertainty But US tariffs won’t immediately trigger a 50 bps

owe AUD/USD has experienced volatile price swings today, with the upside move testing a key swing area between 0.6287 and 0.6301—a zone where price highs have repeatedly stalled on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. A sustained break above this level is needed to strengthen the bullish bias. Conversely, if the pair remains below, focus shifts to

Ackman runs a super-concentrated fund and rarely takes new positions. This one would be worth about $2.25 for the Fund that has somewhere around $20 billion under management. Uber shares dumped on earnings earlier this week but stormed back the following day and continued higher today. This certainly won’t hurt. I can make a pretty

US stocks have moved lower after the University of Michigan preliminary estimates for consumer sentiment came in weaker at 67.8 vs 71.1 estimate. The expectations, and current conditions both fell as well. The bigggest surprise was 1- year inflation expectations surged to 4.3% from 3.3%. Worries about tariffs and the expectations for inflation from them?

Swing Trade Plan for NVDA on NFP Friday Fading the Up Move – A Short-Term Short Strategy Trade Thesis for NVDA Today NVIDIA (NVDA) has delivered its rebound after the noisy DeepSeek saga, and with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) hitting the markets today, we anticipate increased volatility. If NVDA rallies just a little more to fill

Nissan is exploring new partnership opportunities following the collapse of merger discussions with Honda, with Taiwan’s Foxconn emerging as a potential candidate. The automaker walked away from talks after Honda proposed making Nissan a subsidiary—a move CEO Makoto Uchida opposed. Now, Nissan is seeking collaborations, particularly with technology firms, as it navigates challenges from electric

Goolsbee has been relentlessly hitting the news circuit lately. I think it will take longer than year-end to get to neutral level As inflation comes down we can commensurately cut the policy rate We will feel our way down to neutral Over the next 12-18 months, the policy rate will be ‘a fair bit below’

But we cannot declare that the job is done Need to maintain some degree of policy restriction to squeeze out price pressures Other measures of pay growth are easing but still a bit too high This is a reason for caution and carefulness in loosening policy Pill adds that they are optimistic that the upwards

Just a heads up, no word on who he met with and why. Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg was at the White House on Thursday for meetings This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading between their 100- and 200-hour moving averages and near 50% retracement levels—technically a neutral stance. Markets await the report as a catalyst. A stronger-than-expected print (above 170K jobs, 4.1% unemployment) could trigger downside moves, while a weaker outcome may

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is in Washington today to meet with US President Trump. The countries had good relations under Trump 1.0 as Abe forged a strong relationship. This time around ,there is no strong indication that Japan is under consideration for special tariffs but there is some tension on a few fronts. Biden

I would be curious about the structure of any USD stablecoin. One of the things the US loves to do is sanction. If you have some kind of open stablecoin, it would take that power away. So instead you would have a stabelcoin that could be confiscated, which would still have a great utility, just

The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is

Headlines: US jobs report the main event on the agenda today What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? USD/JPY holds the bounce from earlier but the coast isn’t clear yet ECB’s de Guindos: Inflation to start converging to 2% target in the spring Germany December industrial production -2.4% vs -0.6% m/m expected

Oil started US trading higher after Saudi Arabia raised prices on its barrels but talk of peace in Ukraine and Trump touting lower oil prices as a way to ease inflation has weighed on crude. That has WTI crude oil trading 56-cents lower to $70.47 and at the lowest levels since December 30. We could

Freedom Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: FRHC), a U.S.- based financial services company, has announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. The holding company reported a 57% increase in total revenue, with revenues reaching $655.2 million compared to $418.6 million in the same quarter of 2023. Total assets increased to $9.1 billion from

Moderate gains in US stocks earlier today have turned to losses as some selling creeps in. I wouldn’t say there is too much angst ahead of non-farm payrolls as there are plenty of disinflationary signals even if Friday’s report is strong. A bigger source of concern might be Amazon earnings after the bell. The company

Prior -€7.1 billion The trade deficit narrowed slightly at the end of last year as exports fell by 0.4% while imports grew slightly by 0.1% on the month. Overall, the French trade balance stood at -€81.0 billion in 2024 and that’s a good progression after having touched a record deficit level of -€162.6 billion in

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.3% This comes after the stronger gains yesterday with Wall Street also salvaging a slight advance at the end of it all. That said, US stocks were largely carried by tech shares as the S&P 500 ended up 0.3% higher but the Dow fell by 0.3%. For today,

I posted yesterday on Bank of America’s view that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut three times in 2025: BoA expect just 3 RBA interest cuts in 2025, terminal rate of 3.6% Via a note from TD Securities (from a few days ago ICYMIO), analysts there suggest that recent activity data does not indicate

Gita Gopinath is the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF): We support the Bank of Japan’s approach of moving gradually and being data-dependent in raising interest rates. There are positive signs that Japan’s inflation is moving durably toward the 2% target. Japan’s services inflation remains below the 2% target, which is

Around 40% of the move higher in 10s since Sept is inflation compensation Around 60% is real rates The market may be taking the signal that the neutral rate is higher Could also be because of fiscal deficits The most important number in the jobs report is 4.0% unemployment rate The feedback that I’m getting

Prior month 90.9K (was expecting 25.0 K). Revised to 179.1 K Employment change 76.0K vs 25.0 K estimate. This is the 3rd consecutive monthly gain following increases in December (+91,000; +0.4%) and November (+44,000; +0.2%). Unemployment rate 6.6% versus 6.8% estimate. Last month 6.7% Full time employment 35.2K vs 57.5K last month. Revised to 171.8K

US stocks are marginally higher as implied by the futures in premarket trading. The small gains are not being hurt by higher yields, but being helped by the prospects of a solid economy. Inflation concerns are there, but not a worry just yet: Dow industrial average of 43 points S&P index up 3 points NASDAQ

In the European session we have just a few low tier indicators that won’t influence interest rates expectations. The focus today is of course on the US NFP report but there’s also the Canadian employment data being released at the same time. We then conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET

Two-month net revision: +100K versus -8K prior Unemployment rate: 4.0% versus 4.1% expected Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.0085% versus 4.0855% prior Prior unemployment rate: 4.1% Participation rate: 62.6% versus 62.5% prior U6 underemployment rate: 7.5% versus 7.5% prior Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.5% versus +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.3% Average hourly

1215 GMT/0715 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a presentation to businesses on yesterday’s interest rate decision and economic outlook Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Pound bounces back after rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Treasury staff have not tried to block federal payments DOGE programs are an important audit of the government We want to have the best policies to create the conditions for a strong dollar China is the most-imbalanced economy in the history of the world China is trying to export their way out of a depression

Services inflation remains the top concern A prudent approach to monetary policy is needed Meanwhile, ECB chief economist Lane is also out with some comments as per below: 2% inflation target is to be achieved fairly soon January services inflation was softer than expected It is best not to focus too much on neutral rate

The sort of news we do not want to hear. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At the end of January, China gold reserves was seen at 73.45 million million fine troy ounces. That is a step up from December, where it held 73.29 million fine troy ounces in gold reserves. In terms of value, the January reserves stood at $206.53 billion as compared to $191.34 billion in December. Liquid metal.

Given the subject matter for these two, we may not get much of interest on the economy or policy. 1425 GMT/0925 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on bank regulation 1700 GMT/1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” before the 2025 Miami

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, the first cut since May 2020. The move aims to stimulate the sluggish economy, which is projected to grow at its slowest pace in four years. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – The six-member panel (three RBI officials, three

Given the backdrop, it will be a placeholder session in European morning trade today. The bond market has already looked to have made up its mind on the week here. And it’s now time to look to the US jobs report for vindication. The dollar is still in a vulnerable spot as such, especially with

Amazon Stock Earnings Trade Idea: Post-Earnings Playbook Key Concept: For day and swing traders looking to capitalize on Amazon stock earnings volatility, fading an earnings move based on institutional participation and historical liquidity zones presents a high-probability opportunity. This trade plan for Amazon (AMZN) stock is designed to either short the stock if it spikes

0845 GMT/ 0345 US Eastern time: ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will speak in conference “VI Economic-Insurance Meeting” 2000 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time: Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva to speak at an event in Chapultepec, Mexico Escriva speaking in … Mexico! I wonder if he’ll have much to say on

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking: The world looks increasingly shock-prone. As 2025 begins, we are facing new uncertainty with a shift in policy direction in the United States. President Donald Trump’s threats of new tariffs are already affecting business and household confidence, particularly in Canada and Mexico. The longer this uncertainty persists, the more

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