British employers expect to raise pay by around 3% over the next year, but growing use of artificial intelligence could reduce headcount, according to a new survey that also highlighted weaker hiring intentions and concern over government tax policy. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said overall recruitment plans are among the weakest […]

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates only: EUR/USD 1.1560 USD/JPY 153.81, yen weaker in the early hours GBP/USD 1.3146 USD/CHF 0.8051 USD/CAD 1.4053 AUD/USD 0.6498 NZD/USD

Bank of Japan policymakers discussed the likelihood of a near-term rate hike at their October meeting, with most members leaning toward tightening if wage momentum and economic conditions stay supportive, according to a summary released Monday. I put up a piece on the Summary earlier: BoJ Summary of Oct meeting highlights the importance of wages

You note the Chinese inflation data was published over the weekend, post is here ICYMI: China October inflation data: CPI 0.2% y/y (expected 0%), PPI -2.1% y/y (expected -2.2%) The highlight of the event calendar today in Asia-Pacific is the Bank of Japan ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the October meeting. From the day: Bank of

The US economy is shrinking according to comments from these two senior Trump officials. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: the impact of the government shut down on the economy is getting worse and worse expects prices to come down over the months ahead (note, in a recession prices will tend to fall, or at least not

Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions (Oct); Norwegian CPI (Oct), EZ Sentix (Nov), Chinese M2 & New Yuan Loans (Oct) Tue: US Veterans’ Day; New Zealand Inflation Forecasts (Q4), UK Unemployment Rate/Wages (Sep), EZ & German ZEW (Nov), US NFIB (Oct), ADP’s new weekly “preliminary” jobs estimate Wed: BoC Minutes (Oct), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR Thu:

Inflation data from China for October 2025, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). CPI +0.2% y/y expected 0.0%, prior -0.3% CPI +0.2% also for the m/m prior +0.1% PPI -2.1% y/y (producer prices have now fallen for a 37th straight month) expected -2.2%, prior -2.3% This is slightly better than expected. The

Canada October employment change +66.6K vs -2.5K expected UMich consumer sentiment 50.3 vs 53.2 prelim NY Fed survey finds less worry about inflation and more about jobs Trump: Talking with Hungary about meetings with Russian Pres. Putin BOE’s Pill says not to overinterpret removal of the word ‘careful’ Uranium-enriching company jumps after Trump’s sons invest

You know that feeling you get when you read something that was clearly written by AI? It’s happening more and more and it pains me to see real human communication usurped, even if it means fewer typos. It’s obviously where we are headed and untold billions will continue to be made but it’s haphazard, inauthentic

US stocks are closing mixed with the Dow and the S&P closed modestly higher, the Nasdaq still closed lower but still fell by 3% this week for its worst week since the March 31 week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 74.80 points or 0.16% at 46987.10. At session lows,

Mean reversion trading made simple: why it works, how to do it, and the exact strategy that’s delivered 18%+ annual returns for 25 years. The post The Essential Guide To Mean Reversion Trading (Backed By Data) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Next week, the data will be highlighted by UK (Tuesday at 2 PM ET) and Australian jobs reports (Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET/Thursday in Australia. UK GDP will be released on Thursday (at 2 AM ET). If it were a normal week, US CPI would’ve been released along with, retail sales, unemployment claims and PPI

If I had to try to pin down a catalyst for the comeback it would be the news on a few fronts: More dovish UMich survey Lower 1-year inflation expectations in the NY Fed survey Signs of a deal on a US government shutdown The thing is, that all hit around 10 am ET and

Crude oil futures are settling at $59.75 up $0.32 on the day. For the trading week, the price is down $-1.06 or -1.74%. Technically, the price high on Monday extended above the falling 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart but found willing sellers against the low of the swing area at $61.45. The

Shares of ASPI are jumping today after a report that the sons of Donald Trump — Eric and Don Jr — invested in the convertible notes of its subsidiary. Quantum Leap Energy is wholly owned by ASPI and raised about $64.3 billion, according to Bloomberg. Among those investors were Trump’s sons and naturally, shares of

As the shutdown is in day 38, the threat for Pres. Trump and the GOP is that suddenly the eye is off the ball and people are noticing. While the people are hurting and want to get paid and back to work (they will be paid at some point but work is slowing down), he

On Tuesday, the AUDUSD fell sharply with the US stocks tumbling lower. On Wednesday, the pair moved higher as stocks corrected some of the declines. Yesterday, it was back down as stocks slid again. Today with the stocks falling again, the AUDUSD has not moved lower, but is trading up and down within a technical

This is dovish on the margin: one-year expected inflation to 3.2% vs 3.4% prior Three year inflation unchanged at 3.0% Five year inflation unchanged at 5.0% Households’ labor market outlook was mostly negative Perception of current financial situation worsened Expectation of future financial situation declined The market remains in a poor mood with the S&P

It’s an ugly one in stocks as a mid-morning attempt to find a bottom has clearly failed. The Nasdaq Composite is at a session low, down 2% and that leaves the index down 4.9% on the week, which is the worst one since late March. The trend isn’t exactly broken but it will need ot

Gold has been a real battle this week as it consolidates around $4000 but it’s taken a quick trip to the best levels since Monday. It quickly rose to $4025 from $3990 in the past few minutes. It needs to get above the Oct 30 high of $4047 (call it $4050) to clear this consolidation

The broader U.S. stock indices are breaking lower, slipping beneath their 50-day moving averages — a technical development not seen since early May following the April selloff. The move marks a shift in momentum and puts sellers back in control of the near-term bias. For the NASDAQ index, the 50-day moving average sits at 22,657.35,

Asked about the removal of the world ‘careful’ from the BOE’s language saying ‘careful and gradual’, he says it shouldn’t be overinterpreted. The market is still off-balance on what’s coming next fro the Bank of England with pricing at 58% for a cut (though rising to 100% for February). More comments: I would emphasize continuity

German DAX futures +0.1% French CAC 40 futures flat UK FTSE futures flat This comes as US futures are also sitting marginally higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% on the day. All of this follows the heavy selling in Wall Street overnight, with tech shares leading the declines once again. It all indicates that

Closing changes for the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 -0.6% German DAX -0.75% France CAC -0.3% UK FTSE 100 -0.6% Spain IBEX -1.45% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.4% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.3% German DAX -1.3% France CAC -2.2% UK FTSE 100 -0.4% Spain IBEX -0.9% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Details of the latest consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan, for the month of November 2025: Final Oct was 53.6 Current conditions 52.3 vs 59.2 expected (prior was 61.0) Expectations 49.0 vs 50.3 expected (prior was 51.2) 1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.6% prior 5-year inflation 3.6% vs 3.7% prior The headline is the

There are some signs of progress on the US government shutdown and I’m optimistic it will end on the weekend but for now we wait. That means that a second non-farm payrolls report is going to be missed, leaving the Fed and markets with a big blind spot at a critical time. S&P 500 futures

Fundamental Overview Nothing has changed this week in the market. Gold has been stuck in a consolidation since last Tuesday despite a more hawkish than expected Fed Chair Powell. It might be a sign of a short-term bottom, but it could also be just some exhaustion after the 11% drawdown. There are no strong reasons

This is a bit childish at this point but Senate Republican leader John Thune says he’s willing to give Democrats everything they’re asking for in order to pass the government reopening bill, but only if they reopen it first. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Tech and Semiconductors Slip, Financials Show Stability The semiconductor sector dominated market headlines today with a notable downturn. Major player Nvidia (NVDA) experienced a significant decline of 2.09%, setting the tone for other semiconductor stocks like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which fell by 2.00%, and Micron Technology (MU), down by 2.18%. Conversely, the

A tough week in US stock markets is getting tougher by the minutes. The S&P 500 is at the lows of the day, down 1.1% to 6646. That’s the loweset since Oct 17 as the late-October low is cracked and more stops are hit. The index is down 2.8% on the week compared to the

After the risk selloff yesterday, we are seeing a calmer mood play out in European morning trade today. And that’s keeping the market moves this week in check amid some pushing and pulling in general. 10-year Treasury yields moved up to a one-month high on Wednesday before falling back yesterday and then are now pushing

It is reported that China has already begun designing a new regime for rare earth exports licensing in hopes that it could speed up shipments down the road. However, that is still not likely to amount to a complete rollback of the restrictions that is hoped for by the US camp. Some rare earth exports

The Canadian jobs data was stronger that expectations and that sent the USDCAD to new lows going back to Tuesday’s trade. However, the price bounced higher after trading at 1.40546 twice (double bottom). The October 14 high at 1.4079 was broken in the bounce, but quickly failed. That level is now close resistance for traders

The EURUSD started the US session with the price higher and just above the broken 200 hour MA near 1.15525. Buyers on the dip in the early trading, defended that level and that has led to increased upside momentum with new highs for the week. The price has also moved to the next key target

Prior was +60.4 Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 7.1% expected (prior 7.1%) Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.2% prior Full time -18.5K vs +106.1K prior Part time +85.1K vs -45.6K prior Hourly wages for permanent employees % vs +3.6% prior USD/CAD was trading at 1.1402 ahead of the report and quickly fell to 1.4075. The numbers in

Takaichi fills key panels with Abenomics advocates to drive pro-growth agenda Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has stacked top economic panels with reflationist economists and big-spending advocates, signalling a return to Abenomics-style stimulus as Japan’s new government pushes to revive growth and keep policy loose. Reuters carry this very intersting piece. More: The government confirmed that

A Better DCA Strategy for Any Long-Term Stock Investor Last night, while serving as one of the judges for the FM Awards by Finance Magnates I had several insightful conversations with colleagues from across the financial industry. One of those chats was with another judge, Javier Hertfelder from FXStreet.com, a genuinely pleasant and thoughtful professional

After the selling yesterday, we’re starting to see signs of caution again in markets today. Risk appetite held steadier early in the day but is now beginning to turn once more. It’s clear that there’s some modest de-risking taking place across broader markets this week, with Bitcoin once again set to be put to the

Swiss commodity trading firm Gunvor has withdrawn its offer to buy the international assets of Russia’s Lukoil after the US Treasury declared it would “never” approve the deal, branding the company a “Kremlin puppet.” The Treasury’s post on X cited President Donald Trump’s stance that the war in Ukraine must end immediately, saying Gunvor would

Warburg Pincus sees China turning attractive again after valuation reset Warburg Pincus CEO Jeffrey Perlman said China is becoming “quite attractive” for private equity investment following a sharp correction in valuations and as global competitors retreat. Speaking in Tokyo, Perlman contrasted China’s decade of flat stock performance with strong U.S. equity gains despite the former’s

The Tesla TSLA board has approved Musk’s pay package. TEsla shareholders approve Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package – Tesla shareholders have decisively approved a new ten-year pay package for CEO Elon Musk, potentially valued at as much as $878 billion. The vote is seen as a strong endorsement of Musk’s ambitious vision to transition

S&P 500 futures are down 0.35% as we near the equity open. The weakness started early this week after Palantir earnings and the bizarre performances from the CEO led to some profit taking in highly valued tech stocks. Today’s catalyst was supposed to be Tesla shareholders approving a potential $1 trillion pay package for Elon

TrustFinance has shared new insights outlining the top financial industry trends to watch in 2026, emphasizing how artificial intelligence (AI), evolving regulations, and transparency are transforming the global financial landscape. According to the TrustFinance Research Team, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of operational maturity for the finance sector. Institutions are moving from

North Korea have fired off another ballistic missile. South Korea military confirm. Japanese PM Takaichi says North Korea’s missile likely fell outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.3% That’s a notable jump in UK house prices, with the pace being the fastest since January. The average property price is now £299,862, edging up to a new record high. And with mortgage activity also staying underpinned, it continues to point to relatively resilient demand. Halifax notes that: “Demand from buyers has held

In the kickstart video for the NA session on November 7, Greg Michalowski take a look at the 3 major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the bias for traders, the next targets and the risk? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed makes decisions based on data, the outlook, and the balance of risks Fed still has a lot of data on the economy despite lack of official reports We have enough data to make policy, but not questioning that official data is the gold standard He’s mainly trying to soothe the naysayers on this in

Jumper Exchange (https://jumper.exchange/) today announced the expansion of its gasless cross-chain routing and reported a new all-time high (ATH) of $188 million in daily volume, as yield-seeking users diversify across multiple blockchain networks. This announcement highlights two company milestones: broader availability of gasless routes and a new daily volume record. The upgrade enhances route selection

JPMorgan tells clients to ‘buy the dip’ as bull market stays intact JPMorgan analysts said they continue to view any market pullback as a buying opportunity through 2026, arguing that solid growth, strong earnings, and fading headwinds will keep the equity rally alive. In a note led by Andrew Tyler, head of the bank’s market

Prior €17.2 billion The German trade balance narrowed in September as exports were seen growing by 1.4% but outpaced by imports which grew by 3.1% on the month. The standout though is that German exports to the US showed a monthly increase for the first time after consecutive declines from April through to August. German

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. On Wednesday, we got a couple of strong US data. The

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the French current account and the Swiss consumer confidence data. None of the data will change anything for the respective central banks. In the American session, we have the Canadian employment report and the US University

Ahead of the meeting yesterday, Morgan Stanley noted that: “Our base case is for the next move in February, although the risks of a cut in 4Q are high – not just due to how close the debate and the vote split on the MPC might be next week, but also given our forecasts for

The PBOC just announced that it has increased its gold reserves from 74.06 million fine troy ounces in September to 74.09 million fine troy ounces in October. The value of the gold reserves is seen adjusting higher to $297.21 billion at the end of October as opposed to $283.29 billion at the end of September.

Data for Chinese overseas trade data for October is due today, the 0300 GMT time listed in the screenshot should be used as a guide only. Both exports and imports are expected to have grown, but at a slower pace in October than in September. There are a couple of late in the (US) day

China October 2025 CPI and PPI are due on Sunday November 9 at 0130 GMT thats 2030 US Eastern time on Saturday November 8 I’ve checked economic calendars and I can’t see ‘expected’ for these anywhere. PPI will remain in deflation while the CPI (y/y) is likely to remain in deflation given what we know

J.P. Morgan says BoE right to hold rates as inflation stays stubbornly high J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Zara Nokes said the Bank of England made the “right call” in keeping its policy rate unchanged on November 6, arguing that inflation remains far too high for the central bank to risk easing. Nokes noted that while

Prior -€5.53 billion; revised to -€5.19 billion The French trade deficit expanded in September as exports were little changed, up just 0.1% on the month, while imports grew by 2.5% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

I’m loathe to attach any market moves to the US government shutdown as it was never a reason to sell and shouldn’t by a reason to buy. That said, it would be nice if it ended and there was a slightly positive development that’s fitting within the ‘this weekend’ timeline that I outlined earlier this

Fed’s Musalem: Tariffs likely to stay as balance sheet decision kept separate from policy More from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem. Said the central bank’s outlook assumes current US tariffs will remain in place, and that the recent Fed balance sheet decision was made independently of monetary policy. He added that

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fed’s Musalem sees resilient US economy but flags tariff and deficit risks Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said the US economy has shown notable resilience despite uncertainty but faces ongoing challenges from tariffs, inflation pressures, and large fiscal deficits. Speaking Thursday, Musalem said the labour market has “softened of late” yet

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Morgan Stanley sees India equity recovery as growth cycle turns Morgan Stanley expects India’s stock market to rebound from its sharp underperformance since late 2024, saying a turning growth cycle and policy stimulus should drive a recovery. The bank described the market as entering a macro-driven phase, where broader economic trends matter more than stock

US Vice President Vance is warning of consequential suffering for Americans as the government shut down persists. “The American people are unfortunately are about to start suffering some very real consequences because of the shutdown.” Travelers can attest to this: US airlines must reduce operations at 40 high traffic airports by 6 am US ET

Trump seeks Central Asian rare earths to diversify U.S. supply chains President Donald Trump said the U.S. aims to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals, announcing plans to strengthen ties with Central Asian nations during a White House meeting with leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Trump said “critical minerals” were a

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the broader risk mood as well as the push and pull in the bond market – for the dollar at least. Wall Street saw another selloff yesterday and

China October trade data: Yuan denominated exports -0.8% y/y (prior +8.4%) Yuan denominated imports +1.4% y/y (prior +7.5%) Yuan denominated trade balance is a surplus of 640.49bn, from 645.47bn in September USD denominated exports -1.1% y/y, an unexpected drop expected +3%, prior +8.3% USD denominate imports +1.0% y/y, growth but missing estimates expected +3.2%, prior

Nomura penciled in a rate cut for this week but that didn’t materialise of course as seen yesterday here. Their note going into the meeting decision was that if there was a rate cut in November, then they see the BOE cutting rates just one more time in February next year. But now, it seems

U.S. to block Nvidia’s sale of scaled-down AI chips to China despite Trump’s earlier signals. The White House has reportedly decided to block Nvidia from selling its newest scaled-back artificial intelligence chips to China, reversing earlier indications from President Donald Trump that such exports might be allowed. According to people familiar with the decision, federal

Japan PM Takaichi fills key panels with Abenomics-style stimulus advocates North Korea have fired off another ballistic missile JPMorgan bullish through 2026, cites fading headwinds, sees S&P 500 breaking 7,000 soon China October trade data: Exports -0.8% y/y (prior +8.4%) Imports +1.4% y/y (prior +7.5%) Recapping Fed’s Hammack – says inflation still trumps jobs on

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack reaffirmed her hawkish position on monetary policy Thursday, stating that while she doesn’t currently support raising interest rates, she believes the Fed should maintain a restrictive policy stance to address persistent inflation. In a Reuters interview following a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Hammack

Fed’s Hammack warns inflation still top concern, says policy only ‘barely restrictive’ Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s more pressing concern, arguing that monetary policy should stay “mildly restrictive” until price growth is firmly on track to the 2% target. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, Hammack said

Vote was 4-1 Heath dissented in favor of holding Inflation projected to converge to target in Q3 of 2026 The peso is trading at 18.60. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US equity close: Signs of second thoughts in the AI investment boom Reeves has plans to raise personal taxes – report OpenAI CFO highligths the precarious economics of hyperscalers Mexico central bank lowers key rate by 25 bps, as expected Nikkei: Discrepancies have emerged over the details of China’s agreement on rare earth Fed Miran.

Japan data for September 2025: Household Spending +1.8% y/y expected +2.5%, prior +2.3% -0.7% m/m expected -0.1%, prior +0.6% — The Bank of Japan won’t be overly impressed with this. A slow and cautious rate hike path seems to still be likely. Yesterday was a ixed bag on wages data: real wages fell 1.4% y/y

Rachel Reeves has told the Budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax, according to Steven Swinford from The Times. Reeves informed the OBR that personal tax measures will be included in her budget on November 26 but the report notes that the plans could still be reversed. “The chancellor is considering a 2p

On the day: S&P 500 -1.1% Nasdaq Comp -1.9% DJIA -0.8% Russell 2000 -1.6% Toronto TSX Comp -0.7% This is a bit of a worrisome chart as Oracle has now retraced the entire 25% gap up that briefly made Larry Ellison the world’s richest man. The market is growing more weary of AI spending and

U.S. FAA draft order says airlines must reduce operations by 4% at 40 high traffic airports by 6 am US Eastern time Friday draft order says 10% reduction in operations will take effect Nov 14 draft order says it will impose restrictions on space launches effective Nov 10 Document seen by Reuters. The shut down

No one knows what the economics of massive investments in computer chips for AI will reap. That’s the takeaway from comments from OpenAI’s CFO that were cited today by a WSJ reporter. In addition, the ways they are planning to pay for it may not align with anything that users would prefer. The battle is

The EURUSD has been stepping higher in trading today and in the process has been able to extend above the 38.2% at 1.1507, the 38.2% of the move down from the end of October high at 1.15448. and and floor from October between 1.1541 and 1.1546. The next target is the falling 200 hour MA

The US stocks continue to move lower with the NASDAQ index now down -1.62%. The S&P index is down close to 1% is momentum increases lower. Looking at the NASDAQ index it is approaching its 200 hour moving average currently at 23046.40. The low price of just reached at 23099.23.The 50% of the move up

More from NY Fed Pres. Williams: Large AI investments in US are affecting global demand for capital People don’t like high inflation Getting inflation to 2% as soon as we can is right 2% inflation target is a very good compromise, serves us well Powerful that everyone knows Fed’s inflation target Independence of Fed is

Market Overview Today’s U.S. stock market exhibited a patchwork of performance with various sectors responding differently to market currents. While financials displayed a bright outlook, technology and consumer stocks faced downturns amidst investor caution. Sector Analysis: Winners and Losers 📈 Financial Sector Shines: Financials led the way with Bank of America (BAC) climbing a robust

Inflation to overshoot target by 1 pp It will take 2-3 years to get back to target Could be a decade of Fed overshooting target Does not put high odds on labor market downturn It’s not obvious the Fed should cut again given inflation She’s hawkish but that’s no surprise. Given the drop in equity

The USDCHF moved higher yesterday, marking its sixth consecutive daily gain, though the advance was modest—only about a pip or two—closing at 0.8102. The high for the day reached 0.81235, the highest level since August 11. However, momentum has slowed today, with the price retreating toward a swing area between 0.8071 and 0.8076. The 100-hour

Most of labour market indicators show stability in market We should be careful taking payroll job number drop as an indicator of job market (unemployment rate is a better indicator now) Mild cooling in labour market The unemployment rate is basically unchanged There’s a little downside risk to the labor market There’s a lot of

Hammack adds: Now is a challenging time for monetary policy making it will take a couple of years to get back to 2% inflation target the Fed bigger miss is on the inflation side relative to job mandate. Inflation overshoot goes beyond tariff pressure. A little bit nervous about current policy given inflation. I would

The data is released earlier than expected by the source. US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October this year, which is up a whopping 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024. Even compared to September, the number of layoffs is up a staggering 183% last month. And historically for October, this is

This comment could be hurting market sentiment but I wouldn’t take anything from a politicians mouth too seriously. Yesterday, some Republican Senators cited by the WSJ said they were increasingly optimistic about a deal by the end of the weekend. Cancelling flights is not going to fly with Americans. This article was written by Adam

Goldman Sachs is now expecting that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points in December after their interest rate decision today. About today was 5 – 4 with the 4 dissenters arguing for a cut of 25 basis points. Governor Bailey signalled that the BoE is likely to follow a gradual

Prior 46.2 That’s a bit of a bummer as construction activity declines at its fastest pace in over five years in October. There were steep reductions in housing and civil engineering activity, as firms cited a lack of new work to replace completed projects. S&P Global notes that: “UK construction companies reported another challenging month

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday and continued that extension into today’s trading. However, once the price reached the falling 100 hour MA, the buyers turned to sellers and the the price started to back off. US stocks moving lower (Nasdaq is now down -241 points or 1.0%) has more risk-off trading in play and that

The US dollar is unwinding the selling we saw earlier, that started in EUR and GBP. The Bank of England held rates today in a narrow decision and that had led to some volatility in the pound. Now we’re seeing a broader risk off tone in markets and that has unwound gains in the euro

Prior 4.00% Bank rate vote 5-4 vs 6-3 expected (Breeden, Ramsden, Dhingra, Taylor voted for 25 bps rate cut) Prior 7-2 CPI inflation is judged to have peaked Progress on underlying disinflation continues, supported by the still restrictive stance of monetary policy The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced recently, and the

Fed Gov. Barr is also speaking and says: Progress has been made on inflation, but there is still work to do. Two-speed economy with wealthier households thriving Fed has to pay attention to ensuring the job market is solid Low hiring part of low-hire. Low fire environment may be showing some effect of AI adoption

NY Fed Pres. Williams is on the newswires saying: The natural rate of interest is hard to pin down The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points for the 2nd 25 basis point cut in in 2025 at their meeting last week, but the Fed Chair and most commentary has endorsed a wait and see

Prior +0.1%; revised to -0.1% That’s a miss on estimates with the drop mostly coming from a decline in sales for non-food products (-0.2%). Meanwhile, food sales were stable on the month. This is a bit of a lagging release, so it won’t change the ECB outlook whatsoever. This article was written by Justin Low

Prior was 59.8 Non-seasonally adjusted 51.7 vs 61.6 prior This is a poor indicator but we’re all starving for data. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that financial markets inherently carry downside risks, reminding investors not to become complacent about elevated asset valuations. Further: Speaking on the economic outlook, Dimon said that while no U.S. president welcomes high interest rates, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its independence in setting policy. He warned that

The Energy Act of 2020 directed the USGS to update the list of critical minerals, and the list is timely to provide guidance for use of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funds, both for the USGS and other agencies. The act also indicates that at least every three years, the Department of the Interior must review

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures flat Wall Street enjoyed a positive showing yesterday in brushing aside the negativity and heavy mood from Asia and Europe before that. That’s providing a bit of a relief after the heavy selling before, with investors staying hopeful for the risk mood to pick up towards the end

Prior -4.3%; revised to -3.7% That’s a miss on estimates with German industrial output only rebounding mildly after the sharp drop in August. The three-month comparison shows that overall output declined by 0.8% in Q3 as compared to Q2. As for September itself, the rebound comes from the automotive industry – which saw a very

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 mark. That could yet keep price action more limited and centered around the figure level in the session ahead. However, just take note that we are also seeing price move back to

Apple may tap Google’s Gemini for a smarter Siri. What it could mean for AAPL and GOOG TLDR for busy readers Bloomberg reports that Apple is nearing a deal to license a customized Google Gemini model for Siri, at about 1 billion dollars per year. The model is said to be around 1.2 trillion parameters

Summary box for Today’s Bitcoin Traders (price are for bitcoin futures!) Bullish above: 104500 Bearish below: 104100 Current price: 103855 Primary bias: Bearish while price stays under 104100 and near the developing VWAP Partial targets for BTC shorts (once price activates the short by crossing down 104500) 103580 103055 102090 101730 100985 Extended swing references

Marginally more optimistic on growth Much more optimistic on services inflation Evolution of wages fully alignes with projections Level of uncertainty is huge Our intention is to give a gently growing dividendm we will say more in February Comfortable with current level of interest rates We believe that undershooting will be temporary Convergence to 2%

BASELINE The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold the Bank Rate steady today at 4.00% and the QT pace unchanged. The vote split is expected to be 6-3 in favour of a hold with Dhingra, Taylor and Ramsden voting for a cut (Dhingra and Taylor could vote for a 50 bps cut but

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said the recent rise in unemployment was broadly in line with the central bank’s expectations, reflecting where the economy stands in the current cycle. Speaking to lawmakers on Thursday following the release of the RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report, Hawkesby acknowledged that conditions were “hard out there,” but

The USD is lower vs the 3 major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP. For the EURUSD, it moved back above 1.14919 the 50% of the move up from the May low) early in the Asian Pacific session and that disappointed the sellers who have been trying to keep that level as a ceiling

The USDCAD trended higher over the past six trading days, reaching a high of 1.41398 yesterday after rising from a low of 1.3887 six days ago. However, momentum has since slowed, with the bias shifting slightly in favor of the Canadian dollar as markets reacted to Supreme Court arguments suggesting that the justices may curb

Food stamps were cut this week and it looks like air travel is next. Sources cited by Reuters say the Federal Aviation Administration is working to hammer out details of flight cuts that will start tomorrow. That’s going to make a different subset of voters angry and might even get politicians to start working together.

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. Yesterday, we got a couple of strong US data. The US

Our decision will be conditional on fiscal policy as well Not in a position to speculate on the budget for the time being We won’t be passing any judgement on what UK chancellor said this week on fiscal policy and/or budget Some members, including me, do not have a confident view on an equilibrium terminal

Japan S&P Global Services PMI Final for October 2025 53.1 flash was 52.4 prior was 53.3 Composite 51.5 flash was 50.9 — Japan’s services sector continued to expand in October, marking a seventh straight month of growth, though momentum slowed as new business orders weakened and inflation pressures returned, according to the latest S&P Global

Trump’s tariff agenda is on trial at the Supreme Court, with arguments taking place today. In today’s session, several judges questioned the arguments of Trump’s team, suggesting that broad and national security tariffs overstep the language of the law he used; one that cites the ‘regulation’ of foreign trade. On that, North American automaker shares

The expectation is that they will maintain the bank rate at 4.00% this week, though the voting decision is a bit more varied. We are seeing analysts call it from anything between 5-4 to 7-2 in favour of keeping the bank rate on hold but there are a couple of outlier calls as well. Money

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.00% in November monetary policy meeting BOE governor Bailey: We are likely to continue gradual downward path on the bank rate China reportedly made purchases of two cargoes of US wheat for December shipment ECB’s de Guindos: Inflation news is positive US October Challenger layoffs 153.074k vs 54.064k

China bans foreign AI chips in state-funded data centres to boost domestic industry China prioritises yuan stability over exports as PBOC defends currency Annual ECB Conference on Money Markets begins in Frankfurt today, and continues tomorrow Japan, U.S. plan joint rare earth mining near Minamitori Island Goldman Sachs says Supreme Court likely to curb presidential

The five stats, what they mean, and what they do not mean 1) Balance What it is: Your account after all closed trades, deposits, and withdrawals. Open profits or losses are not inside Balance yet. In the example: 50,432.07 USD. What it does not mean: It is not your real buying power while you have

We need to see downward path of inflation become more established before cutting again Today’s decision is based on two key judgements The first being underlying domestic price and wage pressures are continuing to ease The other being the risk of greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced Latest data on inflation was encouraging but

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

U.S. Transportation Department expected to announce mandatory flight cuts at major US airports starting Friday if no shutdown deal is reached – Reuters citing sources U.S. Transportation Secretary expected to announce 10% cut of scheduled capacity at 40 major high traffic airports starting Friday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Snap shares rose after the company announced a $400 million partnership with AI start-up Perplexity to integrate its conversational search technology into Snapchat beginning in 2026. The deal, funded through a mix of cash and equity, was unveiled alongside stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings that lifted investor sentiment. Snap also said it will spin off development of

The CaneToadium-WLCP Wildlife and Conservation Project has officially announced the global introduction of its blockchain-based endowment model and native token, CaneToad Coin ($CaneToad). Operating on the Solana blockchain, the initiative addresses systemic challenges in traditional charity funding by establishing a transparent infrastructure that channels resources directly to conservation initiatives. The model is designed to reduce

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has issued his starkest warning yet that the U.S. risks losing the artificial intelligence race to China, Axios reports. Speaking to the Financial Times (earlier headlines here) on the sidelines of an event in London, Huang said Beijing’s subsidies and pro-AI policies are outpacing Washington’s increasingly fragmented regulatory environment. Huang cautioned

China appears to be prioritising currency stability and investor confidence over export competitiveness, signalling a policy tilt toward a stronger yuan despite pressure from a resurgent U.S. dollar. Via Reuters take on the currency. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reinforced that stance this week by raising its counter-cyclical adjustment factor when setting the daily

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. Yesterday, we got a couple of strong US data. The US

In the European session, we get a few low-tier releases like the construction PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. We have also the Swiss unemployment rate, although it’s not going to change anything for the SNB. The main highlight will be the BoE policy decision. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00%.

Goldman Sachs said the U.S. Supreme Court appears increasingly likely to rule against the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, following oral arguments that revealed skepticism among several justices about the president’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). ICYMI from earlier: The market is telling you how it sees arguments

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.2% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.2% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% It’s almost a similar profile to what we saw yesterday, with markets taking on a more cautious approach after the selloff earlier in the week. The turn in sentiment yesterday came when Wall Street entered the

Air traffic will be reduced by 10%, the cuts will include the 30 busiest US airports: affecting around 3,500 to 4,000 flights daily Reuters citing unnamed sources. Earlier: US Transport Secretary has warned that the air system is becoming riskier due to shut down US flight chaos worsens – further flights will be cut as

After the Tuesday drop, gold is seen picking itself back up again in the past few sessions as it nudges back to around $3,980-90 levels. That being said, the price momentum seems to be falling short of contesting the $4,000 mark. So, what gives? Looking at the near-term chart, we can see that the key

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. Yesterday, we got a couple of strong US data. The US

Prior 46.2 Ouch. German construction activity slumps further in October, falling at its quickest pace in seven months. Of note, housing activity remains the weakest by some margin with a further decline in commercial building while civil engineering activity also returned to contraction on the month. HCOB notes that: “This is a heavy blow for

Australian September trade balance comes a touch under expected at +3938mn expected 4,000mn, prior 1,825mn Exports jumped, +7.9% m/m, the quickest rise since April of 2022 prior 7.8% Imports slowed to +1.1% prior +3.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The shut down of the US government has meant air traffic controller shave been working without pay since October 1. Staffing shortages have been escalating. Earlier news: US flight chaos worsens – further flights will be cut as shut down continues Adding a little more, via Politico The Federal Aviation Administration said that it will

TD Securities expects the Bank of England to deliver a finely balanced 25-basis-point rate cut at its meeting today, with the vote likely to split 5–4. Analysts at the firm said policymakers will probably justify the move by citing persistently elevated inflation, signalling a more cautious approach to further easing than previously anticipated. TD noted

Morgan Stanley has raised its short-term oil price outlook following OPEC+’s move to pause production hikes in early 2026, a decision that eased fears of oversupply. The bank now forecasts Brent crude to average $60 a barrel in the first half of 2026, up from its previous estimate of $57.50. The revision reflects the view

Trump is scheduled to make an announcement on Thursday, November 6, 2025 at 1100 US Eastern time 1600 GMT Probably a distraction from the utter chaos at airports: The slashing of flight numbers in the US will include the 30 busiest airports This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OpenAI is seeking U.S. government support to help finance what could become one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in corporate history — exceeding $1 trillion. Speaking at a Wall Street Journal business conference, Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said the company is exploring federal loan guarantees to attract broader funding for its AI computing expansion,

There are plenty of central bankers with speaking slots booked, including: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank John Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Petra Tschudin, Member of the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank The full agenda is here: Programme This article was written by

It is being reported that China has made purchases of two cargoes for their December shipment, totaling to about 120,000 tons of US wheat. One of the cargo is US soft white wheat with the other being spring wheat. These will mark the first purchases of US wheat by China since October last year. So,

Japan plans to revise its foreign investment screening law in 2026 to sharpen national security oversight and close loopholes in the current framework. The update to the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA) will streamline reviews after filings surged since the 2019 threshold cut. The government may narrow IT-sector reviews to only critical cybersecurity

ICYMI – Reuters reports that China has ordered all state-funded data centres to use only domestically made AI chips, in a move likely to hit U.S. chipmakers including Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. The directive, issued in recent weeks, requires projects under 30% completion to remove or cancel purchases of foreign chips, while more advanced projects

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Macklem, in opening statement to the House of Commons: reiterated monetary policy’s effectiveness was limited in tackling structural changes from U.S. tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Trump has expressed hesitation about ordering military action to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, fearing strikes might fail to force him out, U.S. officials say. The discussions highlight an unsettled Venezuela strategy, even as the U.S. expands its military presence in the Caribbean following an anti-narcotics campaign that has evolved into open pressure on

Japan Innovation Party, the junior coalition partner in the government, co-leader Hidetaka Fujita said it would be premature for the Bank of Japan to deliver an early interest rate hike, warning that such a move could send a confusing signal to businesses. Fujita said this was “not the time for policy shifts that have a

The EURUSD sellers pushed the pair below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May low at 1.14919 yesterday. Although the price briefly moved back above that level during the Asian session (reaching 1.1497), the break was short-lived. The challenge today is that downside momentum has faded—the low reached just 1.1468, leaving the

Japanese automakers are increasingly turning India into a key production and export hub as they shift away from reliance on China. Toyota, Honda, and Suzuki are investing billions to expand factories and build new models in what is now the world’s third-largest car market. An interesting item via Reuters. Low production costs, government incentives, and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan and the United States plan to explore joint development of rare earth mining in the waters around Minamitori Island in the Pacific, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Thursday. Takaichi told parliament the issue was a key topic in her recent talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, part of broader efforts to strengthen resource

Trump is making a speech on the economy and said he expects Q3 GDP of 4.2%. We aren’t getting any numbers right now so it will be awhile before we get Q3 data. The real question right now is Q4, which is going to be poor given the government shutdown. This article was written by

Rabobank expects the Japanese yen to strengthen over the next few months as markets anticipate another Bank of Japan rate hike, a move that could ease pressure for official currency intervention. In a note to clients, senior FX strategist Jane Foley said the yen’s recent weakness against the U.S. dollar raises the risk that Japan’s

The major US stock indices are closing higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 0.65%. The gains only erase part of the sharp declines yesterday which saw the NASDAQ index fall -2.04% and the S&P fall -1.17% The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average +2 to 5.76 or 0.48%

NVIDEA CEO Huang says China will will win the AI race against the US. Says the FT: Jensen Huang has warned that China will beat the US in the artificial intelligence race, thanks to lower energy costs and looser regulations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the ninth straight month in September, underscoring the persistent squeeze on household purchasing power and complicating the Bank of Japan’s path toward further rate hikes. Government data showed real wages declined 1.4% year-on-year, following a revised 1.7% fall in August, as inflation once again outpaced nominal pay gains. Total

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is listed to speak. Anything of note from the Gov and I’ll get it posted. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number

ISM US October services PMI 52.4 vs 50.8 expected ADP October US employment +42K vs +28K expected Fed’s Miran: The ADP report was a welcome surprise US EIA weekly crude oil inventories +5202K vs +603K expected US October final S&P Global services PMI 54.8 vs 55.2 prelim Canada October S&P Global services PMI 50.5 vs

By all accounts, the Supreme Court appears poised to rein in the powers of the Executive Branch—though, of course, that remains to be seen with a decision sometime in 2026. How that ultimately plays out is uncertain, especially since Trump and his team may have additional strategies in reserve. What likely didn’t help Trump’s case

Shares of GM are up 3.1% today. Stellantis is up 4.8% and Ford is up 3.5%. That’s a big tell on how the Supreme Court arguments around tariffs are going. Chief Justice Roberts called them ‘taxes’ today. Another conservative — Gorsuch — voiced a warning of “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion

The price of crude oil has been confined in an up-and-down trading range over the last 7 or so trading days between a low of $59.64 and a high near $61.45. Those levels are within swing levels on either extreme, keeping buyers and sellers in play but unsure of the next break and run. That

European indices close higher on the day led by the UK’s FTSE 100 with a gain of 0.64%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.42% France’s CAC +0.08% UK’s FTSE 100, +0.64% Spain’s Ibex, +0.39% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.41% US indices are also higher with the NASDAQ index trading up 1.04% erasing

China will suspend 24% US tariffs for a year from November 10, to maintain 10% US tariffs ICYMI: Trump administration reportedly considers Venezuela strikes, oil-field seizures North Korea may be on the brink of an imminent nuclear test says South Korean intelligence Asian equity markets see their biggest losses in half a year MUFG lifts

Prior was -6858 Gasoline -4729K vs -1140K expected Distillates -643K vs -1969K expected This report is bearish. API inventory data from late yesterday: Crude +6500K Gasoline -5653K Distillates -2459K This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The bond market has been struggling to assess the economy due to the lack of economic data but today we got two reports: ADP employment at +42K vs +28K expected ISM services at 52.4 vs 50.8 expected As you can see, both were stronger and that has the market starting to believe Powell when he

The Treasury is out with its quarterly refunding announcement, the document that outlines how it will borrow in the coming quarter. The key line in the release is that it expects to keep coupon auction sizes steady “for at least the next several quarters”. That line is the early warning on ramping up Treasury auctions

Prior 54.3 Composite PMI 56.0 Prior 53.8 Spain’s services sector posts its fastest growth in 10 months amid a pick up in both activity and new business. Meanwhile, confidence in the outlook also strengthened- reaching a seven-month high. That said, input price inflation remained elevated despite dropping to a three-month low while selling prices were

Prior 48.5 Composite PMI 47.7 vs 46.8 prelim Prior 48.1 Despite the positive revision, it still marks a renewed downturn in France’s services sector with activity levels falling at its quickest pace since April. Some good news at least is that jobs growth held up while input price inflation saw its slowest increase in over

Warren Buffett’s name has become as legendary in the world of investing as Bruce Lee’s in martial arts. So it’s no surprise that millions of investors closely track every move in Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio, even if only after the fact, through documents such as Form 10-Q and Form 13F. However, in recent years, Buffett’s activity

PU Prime, a global multi-licensed online brokerage, has announced the successful expansion of its trading servers in Asia, reinforcing its commitment to providing a superior and seamless trading experience for clients across the region. The newly deployed servers, hosted on Amazon Web Services (AWS) infrastructure, significantly enhance latency, execution speed, and connection stability. During internal

US, China are important agriculture partners Hopes for US to foster environment that would be conducive for cooperation Well, China had pledged a commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by the end of January. That comes after of course having halted soybean purchases from the US just ahead of the meeting

RBNZ Governor Hawkesby: house prices and credit growth not raising red flags, can have more baseline mortgage loan-to-value ratio settings — Earlier: New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate rises to 5.3% (expected 5.3%, prior 5.2%) The New Zealand dollar had been soft heading into this jobs data, and showed a further dip in the aftermath that

The broader US stock indices are trading to new highs with the S&P up 0.52% or 35.79 points at 6806.25. The Nasdaq is up 178 points or 0.76% at 23557. The Dow is up as well but below its earlier highs for the day. For the S&P it did fall below the 100 hour MA

New Zealand data New Zealand’s labour market softened further in the September quarter, with unemployment up at 5.3%, matching expectations, as employment growth stalled and participation slipped. Seasonally adjusted employment was flat on the quarter (0.0% q/q, poll +0.1%, -0.1% in Q2), while the participation rate edged down to 70.3% from 70.5%. The data point

This is the first positive reading in the Canadian services PMI since last November, though it wasn’t exactly robust and the commentary in the report was poor: Latest prices data showed another round of steeply rising operating expenses, although competitive pressures meant the degree of cost pass through to clients remained relatively subdued. Suppliers were

Prelim was 55.2 September final reading was 54.2 Composite PMI 54.6 vs 54.8 prelim The ISM services index is due at the top of the hour, and there will be an extra focus on the employment component. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Job market trends pre-shutdown are still in place Job market data indicates interest rates could be lower than current levels Spoiler: He’s voting for 50 bps again because he’s a yes-man. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Senate minority leader Schumer and the House minority leader — both Democrats — are seeking a meeting to end the government shutdown. There might be some movement on the Republican side as Trump highlighted that the shutdown cost Republicans in elections yesterday, though he’s still banging the drum on ending the filibuster. At 1 pm

The Australian dollar eased after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy statement struck a neutral tone, disappointing investors who had anticipated a more hawkish message. According to TD Securities, the RBA’s balanced language “took some shine off the Aussie” as markets unwound modest long positions built ahead of the decision. TD noted the U.S.

How to Use Micro-Contracts to Take Partials With Small Accounts Many traders skip the first take profit because they only hold one contract. That undermines the plan. The first take profit is where we secure the trade by moving the stop to entry on the remainder. Micro-contracts solve this. Rule of thumb: 1 E-mini =

The USDCHF is trading at its high for the day (see the video above), pushing toward the top of a key swing area between 0.8102 and 0.8117. So far, the high has reached 0.8116, just shy of that upper boundary. A break above would open the door for a move toward 0.8147–0.8155, followed by the

The AUDUSD has experienced choppy, two-way volatility today — down, up, down, and back up again. In the early Asian session, the pair dipped below a swing-area target near 0.6463, but sellers couldn’t extend the move toward either the rising 200-day moving average at 0.6445 or the October low at 0.64398. The session low bottomed

U.S. yields are pushing to new highs after another round of stronger-than-expected data. The ISM non-manufacturing index beat forecasts, reinforcing the upbeat tone set earlier by a solid ADP employment report. Together, the data painted a picture of continued economic resilience and triggered fresh selling in Treasuries. The 10-year yield is now up 5.2 basis

The USDCAD is higher on the day and working on its sixth consecutive daily gain, as buyers continue to press their advantage. The move higher has extended beyond several key technical targets, underscoring the strength of the current momentum. The rally began after a failed break below the 50% midpoint at 1.3903, which triggered renewed

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That perhaps being for NZD/USD at the 0.5675 level. However, I wouldn’t attach much significance or impact to the expiries there with it not being tied to any key technical level. On top of that, the risk mood is

Villeroy is a known dove, so he will keep the door open for another rate cut. The recent data though, suggests that economic conditions not only are more than fine, but they are also improving.Therefore, the ECB is really well positioned at the moment and the next move can be either a cut or a

Such comments are not new at all as ECB members continue to repeat the same stuff over and over again. The ECB continues to keep the door open for another rate cut, but the bar was set high given that they also added that they will need a significant reason to cut and that small

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap presents a varied landscape, with significant movements across different sectors. While the semiconductor sector shows a mixed performance, the standout success story today is Tesla in the consumer cyclical sector, posting a significant gain of 1.56%. Technology: The tech sector experiences a minor pullback overall. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.45%,

Market index 332.3 vs 338.7 prior Purchase index 163.3 vs 164.3 prior Refinance index 1290.8 vs 1327.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.31% vs 6.30% prior This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was -32K (revised to -29K) Details Goods producing +9K vs -3K prior Service providing +33K vs -28K prior Trade/transportation/utilities +47K vs -7K prior Leisure/hospitality -6K vs -19K prior Median pay for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% prior Median pay for job changers 6.7% vs 6.6% prior The market started to feel better about jobs

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) third-quarter 2025 results. Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.20 per share, ahead of the $1.17 consensus estimate, as robust data-center and AI chip demand helped offset continued softness in PCs. Revenue rose 16% year-on-year to $9.25 billion, beating expectations of $8.74 billion. Adjusted operating income came in at

Eight month high Prior was 50.0 Details: Business activity 54.3 vs 49.9 prior Prices paid 70.0 vs. 69.4 last month — three year high Employment 48.2 vs. 47.2 last month New orders 56.2 vs. 50.4 last month — highest since Oct 2024 Supplier deliveries 50.8 vs. 52.6 last month Inventories 49.5 vs. 47.8 last month

US futures are down slightly, with tech shares being the laggard once again. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% but at least is seen a more controlled mood as compared the selling earlier in Asia trading. Futures were down as much as 0.8% earlier in the day. Meanwhile, Dow futures are up 0.1% but Nasdaq

After the slide on Wall Street on Tuesday regional equites here are feeling the heat. Nikkie 225 is down 5% from its record high hit on Tuesday In South Korea, KOSPI futures halted after a 5% slide. In brief: The ‘sidecar’ is a rule that lets the Korea Exchange (KRX, the operator of SK’s bourse)

The GBPUSD continues to move lower, extending its decline and breaking further away from the 38.2% retracement level of the rise from the January low to the July 2025 high, which comes in at 1.31422. The pair has now fallen to a new session low near 1.3018, putting the psychological 1.3000 level firmly in sight.

Prior 52.5 Composite PMI 53.1 vs 51.7 prior Full report here Key findings: Growth in new work accelerates, supported by fresh rise in exports Input cost inflation at four-and-a-half year low Job creation only fractional despite stronger rise in activity Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

Fundamental Overview After the big selloff, gold got stuck in a consolidation since last Tuesday despite a more hawkish than expected Fed Chair Powell. It might be a sign of a short-term bottom, but it could also be just some exhaustion after the 11% drawdown. There are no strong reasons for more upside at the

Headlines: Risk sentiment continues to hold more cautious in European morning trade Bitcoin holds the line at $100,000 for now as dip buyers try to make a stand US government shutdown set to be the longest one yet China stipulates that state-funded data centres to use only domestic AI chips – report Japan top currency

ANZ Commodity Price Index tracks prices received for New Zealand’s main export categories. The overall index has drifted lower since May, coinciding with the peak in dairy prices that month. However, compared to a year ago the index is still up 4.4%. The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 0.3% m/m in October: Dairy prices

The USD is little changed to start the North American session, with traders showing hesitation ahead of the next catalyst. The EURUSD remains confined within a tight 20-pip range — exceptionally narrow and indicative of a market waiting for a shove in either direction. In USDJPY, sellers made a push below the 200-hour moving average

Rating Dog / S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs from China for October 2025 Services PMI (Oct) 52.6 expected 52.5, prior 52.9 Composite 51.8 prior 52.5 China’s services activity expanded at its slowest pace in three months in October, as a drop in overseas orders offset stronger domestic demand, according to the latest private survey

If you ask any professional trader what his number one priority is, the answer would be “capital preservation”. The retail world is unfortunately 99% just marketing, so the focus is on gains as that is what sells the most. You should be focusing first and foremost on risk. The chart above shows you how much

North Korea may be on the brink of an imminent nuclear test says South Korean intelligence Info via media reports citing SK spy agency. Also, further reports NK is preparing to launch another spy satellite. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures -0.5% UK FTSE futures -0.1% German and French stocks were the laggards yesterday while Wall Street saw broader selling across the board, though tech shares were the ones leading the rout. The Nasdaq closed down by 2% with the likes of Nvidia sliding by nearly 4% and Palantir 8%. The selloff reverberated

There is some speculation in the market about Japan’s macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy Yen long positions have been shrinking after the summer We all agree that monetary policy itself is in the hands of the BOJ A bit of added verbal smackdown from Tokyo. This is becoming more frequent after Takaichi’s appointment as prime

Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.4% If you exclude the drop in energy prices (-0.2%) on the month, then overall producer prices in the euro area were stable in September. The added breakdown shows an increase in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.2%) and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is offset by a decline in prices

Canada’s federal government forecast larger budget deficits and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio over the coming years, even as total borrowing needs are set to ease slightly, according to the Finance Ministry’s fiscal update on Tuesday. Ottawa now expects a 2025/26 deficit of C$78.3 billion, almost double the C$42.2 billion projected in December, and a 2026/27

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The big topic on Wall Street is on Palantir and perhaps Nvidia, not withstanding the whole China issue after the meeting between Trump and Xi not bearing any fruit. That’s stirring up some nerves as evident with the risk selloff so far this week, in particular the one yesterday. It once again highlights the vulnerabilities

By Jonatan Randin, Market Analyst at PrimeXBT Despite stronger dollar momentum, gold remains technically constructive, consolidating near key Fibonacci levels. Meanwhile, gold’s relative performance against Bitcoin shows signs of strength, a familiar pattern during risk-off conditions. This market outlook explores gold’s behaviour against both the US dollar and Bitcoin, featuring XAU/BTC, one of the newly

Prior -0.8%; revised to -0.4% The pick up in new orders is helped by a boost in the automotive industry (+3.2%) and in the manufacture of electrical equipment (+9.5%) for September. That is offset by a decline in manufacture of metal products (-19.0%), following several large orders there in the month of August. Excluding large

Prior 51.3 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 52.2 prelim Prior 51.2 The euro area services sector is finding a resurgence in October, jumping up to its highest in 17 months. Meanwhile, the composite reading is also seen nudging up to its highest in 29 months. That comes amid a big boost in Germany in particular, but

Bitcoin Futures tradeCompass Map and Execution Plan (Nov 5, 2025) Summary Box (prices are for Bitcoin futures) Bullish above: 101,375 Bearish below: 100,665 Primary bias: Map driven. Prefer patient entries over chasing. Current price: 102,430 Bitcoin Market Context and Directional Bias Bitcoin Futures tested the 100,000 round number after a decline of about 22 percent

Prior 50.8 Final Composite PMI 52.2 vs 51.1 prelim Prior 50.1 Full report here Key findings: Business activity and new order growth accelerate since September Employment close to stabilisation Input price inflation at 11-month low Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The latest survey offered some positive signals for the

China will suspend 24% US tariffs for a year from November 10, to maintain 10% US tariffs. This is a risk positive announcement. A dialing back of trade tensions,. At least for now. China’s Finance Ministry with the announcement. The Ministry of Commerce also announce that China will remove some tariffs on some US agricultural

That ties the period in 2018-19 and is on track to enter its 36th day, which will mark the longest federal government shutdown in US history. The stalemate now begins to threaten some economic costs to the US and with regards to the Fed, this continues with the lack of key major economic releases as

Top Wall Street executives cautioned that U.S. equities may be nearing a correction, with both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEOs warning that markets are running hot and vulnerable to sentiment shifts. At the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said investors should brace for a 10% to

IBM announced it will lay off a small percentage of its global workforce in the fourth quarter — described as a “low single-digit percentage”, likely around 1% (≈2,700 jobs). The company emphasized that U.S. employment will remain flat year over year, suggesting most cuts will occur internationally. The move aligns with broader industry trends as

In the European session, we have several low tier releases on the agenda including the French Industrial Production, the Italian Retail Sales, the Eurozone PPI and the final services PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. In the American

Prior -0.1% Retail sales Y/Y +0.5% vs +0.5% prior This is not a market-moving release. The agency notes: “Compared with September 2024, retail sales grew by 0.4% in large-scale distribution. Non-store sales rose by 1.9%, while online sales was up 7.3% over the same period. Small-scale retail declined by 0.4%.” “Among non-food products, year-on-year trends

Decision Desk HQ projects Zohran Mamdani to win the New York City Mayor election. Trump has threatened to end funding to New York if this was the result. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.5% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.5% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.5% Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% The risk appetite has picked up since the depths of Asia trading, with S&P 500 futures also trimming losses to just 0.1% on the day. For some context, they were down as much as 0.8% at

Prior 51.5 Final Composite PMI 53.9 vs 53.8 prelim Prior 52.0 Key findings: Employment increases for first time in three months Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Germany’s services sector started the fourth quarter with renewed momentum, as the HCOB Services PMI surged to 54.6 in

If there is a clear winner on the economic data calendar today its the China ‘Rating Dog’ PMI! Have you ever heard a better name for an economic data point? This is the private survey services PMI. We’ve already had the official PMIs from China for October: China official manufacturing PMI (October) 49.0 (expectd 49.6)

Financial stability risks remain heightened. Banks remain well placed to manage the current uncertainty. Fragmentation of global trade and finance, and ongoing uncertainty continue to present risks. Loan defaults have picked up, although they remain low compared to during the Global Financial Crisis. Strong lending standards, including loan-to-value limits have helped to restrict the amount

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2024 earnings after market close. Expectations are for: Adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share): Analysts project $1.17per share, up from ~$0.92 a year ago) Revenue: The consensus estimate stands at $8.76 billion, up ~28% YoY growth. SMCI is also expected to report with EPS estimated at

It is reported that Beijing has issued a guidance that requires new data centre projects that have received any state funds to only use domestically developed AI chips. Thus, ruling out the use of foreign AI chips with authorities even ordering data centres that are less than 30% complete to remove all previously installed foreign

The risk mood was battered early on in Asia but is seeing some tentative signs of recovery as we get to the handover to European trading today. Wall Street saw some heavy selling yesterday with tech shares leading losses but US futures have recovered from early lows today, with S&P 500 futures paring declines to

The crypto complex has been heavy for a few weeks now, that ‘liquidation event’ that saw a huge drop in Bitcoin marked a regime change. ETH had its own troubles earlier this week: Ether slides below $3,600 after $100 million DeFi hack deepens crypto sell-off This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese shares opening lower: Shanghai Composite -0.95%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.97% More broadly: South Korea halted KOSPI equity index futures trade after a 5% drop Korea Exchange activates sidecar on KOSDAQ after KOSDAQ 150 futures Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index has fallen more than 5% from its record high hit just yesterday Bitcoin is

Japan and South Korea stocks slump, tech shares lead selloff Asian equities slumped on Wednesday, with Japanese and South Korean stocks posting their sharpest declines in more than six months as investors rotated out of high-valuation sectors. In Tokyo, the Topix index suffered heavy losses led by technology shares. SoftBank Group Corp. plunged as much

NASDAQ index falls over -2%. S&P declines -1.17% Canada widens deficit forecasts, slashes growth forecasts: debt-to-GDP seen rising to 43% RBNZ financial stability review: Financial risks remain heighted.NZDUSD trades to new lows Crude oil settles at $60.56 NY TImes: Trump administration looks at options for military action in Venezuela Apollo withdraws offer to buy Papa

Sterling’s slide could extend if the Bank of England cuts interest rates in December, according to MUFG Bank, which expects softer inflation data and fiscal tightening to reinforce the case for easing. The bank said upcoming releases are likely to confirm that UK inflation has peaked, while the Nov. 26 budget may introduce tax increases

US President Donald Trump said he met with senior representatives from Switzerland to discuss trade and other issues, describing the talks as productive and praising both sides “on a job well done.” “The meeting was adjourned with the understanding that our Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, will discuss the subjects further with Switzerland’s Leaders,” Trump wrote

ICYMI – White House weighs Venezuela strikes and oil-field seizure said a piece in the NYT on Tuesday. The Trump administration is reportedly considering military strikes on Venezuelan military targets and the potential seizure of the country’s oil fields, according to a New York Times report citing internal discussions. The report said the deliberations form

The NY Times is reporting The administration has developed multiple military options for action in Venezuela, including direct strikes on units protecting President Maduro and potential moves to seize control of the nation’s oil fields. President Trump has not yet decided whether or how to proceed, reportedly showing reluctance to risk U.S. troops or political

Bank of Japan minutes of the September meeting. The meeting created some shock waves with two dissenters seeking an immediate rate rise. The minutes show cautious path toward further rate hikes amid trade uncertainty. BOJ minutes highlight cautious rate-hike outlook, trade uncertainty and modest tariff impact. The Bank of Japan’s September meeting minutes showed policymakers

China’s Premier Li calls for trade reform, warns unilateralism hurting global order China’s Premier Li Qiang warned that rising protectionism and unilateral trade measures have caused severe disruptions to the global economic order, urging nations to reaffirm their commitment to mutual cooperation and free trade amid slowing global growth. Li said the past few years

A massive build, info from oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.6 mn barrels Distillates -2 mn bbls Gasoline -1.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday

Crude oil is settling at $60.56. That is down $0.45 or -0.69%. The low price reached $59.94. The high price was at $61.03. Technically, The price remains below the swing area between $61.45 and $61.94. That is topside resistance. On the downside, there is a swing area support between $59.64 and $60.17 going back to

A plane crashed near Louisville’s Muhammad Ali International Airport on Tuesday afternoon, triggering a large blaze and significant smoke plume visible in traffic cameras shortly before 5:30 p.m. US Eastern time. The incident occurred in the vicinity of Fern Valley Road and Grade Lane, south of the airport, where multiple emergency agencies responded. Injuries have

Major US stock indices move lower with the NASDAQ index falling -2.04%. The S&P index fell -1.17% and the Dow industrial average fell -0.53%. The hangover from last week’s Fed meeting, the government shutdown, concerns about overvaluation, and bitcoin tumbling back below the $100,000 level hurt the sentiment Looking at some of the company specific

I summarised the Bank of Japan September meeting minutes here: BoJ Sept minutes: Current real interest rates are very low, will hike if data indicates In (very) brief, the minutes reinforced the Bank’s cautious stance on policy normalisation. Members agreed real rates remain very low and that gradual hikes may continue if inflation holds, but

The price bitcoin is continuing its move to the downside. The low price has now reached $99,939. The price has not traded below the $100,000 level since June 23 when the price reached $99,705. Looking at the daily chart, the next target on a break lower would have traders looking toward the June 22 low

US President Donald Trump has halved the tariff on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production, lowering the rate from 20% to 10% in a move that fulfills a key component of his latest trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Info via Bloomberg. The reduction, formalised in an executive order issued Tuesday, takes effect November

Have you seen restaurant stocks lately? Evidently private equity giant Apollo has. They’ve been cratering, including Chipotle last week. Now Reuters reports that Apollo has pulled its $64/share bid for Papa John’s pizza chain. Shares are quickly down 11.5%. Notably, the market had sniffed out some risk here as shares were already trading well below

This US government shutdown will end, just like all the others. It’s why the dip in equities on the day it started was an easy buying opportunity, something I repeatedly touted. The question is: Will the market rally even further when it’s settled? I’d say that’s likely and I can’t really see a scenario where

The Nasdaq is testing the opening lows, though its held so far. The dip-buyers have won almost every battle this year and looked to be doing the same shortly after the open. I fear that the change in the stance of the Federal Reserve takes away the Fed put and will make it more of

Sector Overview The tech sector faced significant pressure today, with major players showing notable declines. This downturn was led by companies like Nvidia (NVDA) which dropped by 2.06% and Microsoft (MSFT) falling by 1.41%. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks endured another rough day, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) dropping by 4.00% and 4.40%, respectively.

The USD is mostly higher once again with the biggest gains vs the risk-off currencies – the AUD and NZD. Stocks are lower with the Nasdaq down about -330 points. Yields are lower adding to risk-off/safety bias. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY

The AUDUSD has trended lower today, extending its recent decline despite a less dovish, more hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which left interest rates unchanged. The move lower was primarily driven by technical factors, as the pair continued to weaken after failing to sustain a break above key support levels. Yesterday, the

Remittances today are far more than financial transfers; they are lifelines that sustain families, fund education, and support small businesses across the world. For millions of expatriates living and working across the UK and Europe, every transaction represents love, responsibility, and connection. ACE Money Transfer today reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its European operations, reinforcing

US midterm elections are now less than one year away on November 3, 2026 and Trump is getting some bad news. The latest poll from CNN/SSRS shows Trump’s disapproval rating is at 63%. That’s the highest of either term and — incredibly — one point above his previous high of 62% as he was leaving

A reassessment of the Palantir valuation led to a round of profit taking among retail investors and that’s spread to bitcoin. Palantir shares are down 7% despite beating on earnings and revenue while Nvidia is down nearly 3%. The Nasdaq is down 1.5% as we await earnings from other meme-like stocks this week. On top

RBA leaves its cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, as widely expected. MUFG sees Bank of England (BoE) holding this week, December rate cut still base case Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama says seeing one-sided rapid yen moves Goldman: Yen intervention unlikely near 155, gradual recovery seen over time Standard Chartered bullish on global equities despite valuations,

The USDCAD continues to push higher, extending beyond the October high at 1.40791 and breaking through the swing area between 1.4060 and 1.40668. This move marks a meaningful shift in momentum, as buyers have been able to sustain strength and force a clean break above what had been a key technical barrier throughout the month.

German DAX futures -1.0% UK FTSE futures -0.4% Pain. S&P 500 futures are also now down 1.0% on the day with Nasdaq futures down 1.4%. The selling is intensifying as we look to get things going in the session ahead. That’s keeping the overall risk mood on the defensive in general as well. USD/JPY is

Copper prices are continuing to correct after hitting a record high last week but there are bullish signs on the horizon. The world’s largest copper producer is Chile’s Codelco reported earnings today of $607 million through the first nine months of the year and the CEO said he’s optimistic about prices. One of the big

Gold prices have been volatile today. They fell sharply early in US trading on a jump in the US dollar and drop in equities. But the early angst has faded somewhat in all asset classes and gold has rebounded. From as low as $3929, gold has bounced to $3966, though it’s still down $35 on

Stocks and crypto are under broad pressure to start the day, reversing the trend from what we saw yesterday. Tech shares held the line to start the week but are now tumbling as well, poised for quite the rough start to November trading. That’s translating to safety bids as well in the major currencies space

It’s budget day in Canada and it’s a big one as it’s Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first edition. He’s promised a transformational budget that’s likely to include some heavy cuts to operational government spending along with some heavy spending on capital projects. What’s less clear is how tax policy will change. There is some suspicion

Chinese Premier Li Qiang told visiting Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Monday that China stands ready to work with Russia to deepen cooperation across all fields and protect their shared development and security interests. The announcement came as the two leaders co-chaired the 30th regular meeting of Chinese and Russian heads of government in

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French budget balance and the Spanish unemployment change. The data won’t change anything for the ECB or the market. In the American session, it’s going to be much of the same as we just

Standard Chartered says the recent pullback in gold prices below $4,360 per ounce represents a chance for investors to re-enter the market, arguing that the metal’s key bullish drivers remain firmly in place. Despite the correction, gold is still up 49% over the past year, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, robust central bank buying,

Statistics Canada was scheduled to release trade balance data today but the report was delayed because of the inability to properly compile the US cross-border numbers. Statistics Canada sources its data on Canada’s exports to the United States from the United States Census Bureau, which isn’t operating. It also relies on US data on trade

Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted at its sharpest pace in 19 months in October, as weakening global demand and sector-specific slowdowns in autos and semiconductors weighed heavily on output, a private survey showed Tuesday. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in October from 48.5 in September, undershooting the flash estimate of 49.3 and

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

US tariffs are damping global growth He’s just repeating what he already said two weeks ago here. Again, the SNB is expected to remain on hold for a long time. They’ve already said many times that the bar to go back to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) is very high. They will need significant negative

ProxyCoupons, known for bringing the best deals on proxy and VPN services, has officially announced an expansion that will see the platform evolve into a comprehensive destination for everything related to technology. This development marks a significant step forward for the site, which now offers users a much wider selection of tech, coupons, deals, and

Europe needs to boost competitiveness Countries should reduce public debt No monetary policy comments here from Patsalides. He’s been in the neutral/hawkish camp since his last comments here where he didn’t exclude a rate hike if needed. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD remains strong across the board following the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell last week. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields rose and continue to trade at the recent highs. Yesterday, we got a slightly weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI

The U.S. dollar could continue to draw strength from the country’s productivity advantage, which has been a central driver of its performance since the 2008 global financial crisis, Rabobank’s Jane Foley said in a note on Tuesday: productivity gains fuel wealth creation also act as a strong offset to inflation risks the U.S. economy’s heavy

Fundamental Overview The USD remains strong across the board following the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell last week. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields rose and continue to trade at the recent highs. Yesterday, we got a slightly weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI

Major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower, the S&P and NASDAQ indices are higher: Dow industrial average fell -225.55 points or -0.47% at 47337.32. S&P index rose 11.84 points or 0.17% at 6852.04. NASDAQ index rose 109.77 points or 0.46% at 23834.72. Amazon struck a $38 billion cloud computing

China’s push into next-generation transport took a leap forward on Monday as the world’s first flying car factory began trial production in Guangzhou, southern Guangdong Province. China’s People’s Daily with the info. The 120,000-square-metre facility — billed as the largest of its kind — will produce detachable electric aircraft modules for modular flying cars. It

Inflation has been too slow to come down Interest rates are still a constraint The cost of government borrowing has increased around the world My commitment to the fiscal rules is iron clad I am not satisfied, there is more to do Shambolic. Playing the blame game seems to be the only thing she is

Palantir drops 7.5% as large-caps sink after earnings — investingLive Earnings Movers Yesterday (Nov 3 AMC) Earnings Analysis: Large-Caps Turn Sharply Negative After Market Close Yesterday Out of 11 major stocks that reported earnings after market close yesterday (Nov 3), the big-cap group delivered a clearly negative picture. We’re focusing here on the largest 11

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1525 level. It’s not one that ties to any technical significance but could just play a part in holding price action a little, though the downside momentum since last week remains very much

Earnings Analysis: Large-Caps Turn Sharply Negative After Market Close Yesterday ECB’s Patsalides: European economy is showing resilience SNB’s Chairman Schlegel: Inflation should rise slightly in the next quarters JPY intervention cheat sheet: from verbal to physical action Japanese yen leads the major currencies space amid risk selloff UK’s Reeves: Since last year’s budget, the world

The risk mood is feeling heavy after the AI-driven gains in Wall Street yesterday with today being pretty much a reversal of the moves to start the week. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.6% with Nasdaq futures down 0.8% on the day. Of note, Palantir shares rose by over 3% overnight but traded down

The bond villain behind the surveillance data company Palatir will do his usual song and dance today after earnings. The company is the marquee name reporting today. It’s a $475 billion market cap company that’s forecast to report $1.091 billion in revenue this quarter and $489m in earnings. Even on the out-year forecast for 2029,

We’re alert to outside commentary on our policy setting The board is not immune to outside commentary and will decide for themselves on policy Previous rate cuts are still feeding through to the economy Still watching for the impact, it is a balancing act This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It’s a holiday in Australia’s second city today (sorry, Melbourne, but its true). The holiday is for the Melbourne Cup horse race, known as ‘the race that stops a nation’. Its not a holiday elsewhere in Australia but that won’t stop the celebrations. Sydney financial markets, for example, will pretty much grind to a halt

London, October 2025 – Hola Prime, one of the world’s fastest-growing global trading companies, has launched its boldest brand campaign yet: “We Are Traders.” More than a marketing push, this campaign is a global movement to honor traders, reshape perceptions, and unite a community often overlooked in mainstream recognition. In a world where professions like

MUFG expects the Bank of England to hold rates steady at this week’s policy meeting, with its first cut likely in December, senior currency analyst Lee Hardman said. “Our base case is still a cut in December — I don’t think one softer CPI print is enough,” Hardman said, adding that by then policymakers will

The price of crude oil is settling at $61.05 up $0.07 or 0.11%. The near unchanged comes after the OPEC+ meeting this weekend where they confirmed a production increase but also said that they would pause on further production increases. More specifically: Production Increase for December: The group agreed to raise the output target by

Ether tumbled as much as 9% on Monday, breaking below a key technical support level at $3,600 after hackers drained over $100 million from a major decentralized-finance protocol on the Ethereum network. The sharp drop leaves the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency roughly 25% below its August 22 peak of $4,885, extending a volatile stretch for digital-asset

Today, the JPY strengthened across the board following a verbal intervention from the Japanese Minister of Finance Katayama. These moves generally just provide pullbacks for traders to sell the JPY at better levels as long as the conditions for further yen weakness persist. I thought about making a cheat sheet on JPY intervention. It generally

Equity index futures are trading lower while the USD has added a few points Moves are not large. I’m not seeing a direct smoking gun at present. If you wanna tell me stock markets are overdue for a collapse, OK …. but why now? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OnEquity, a top-tier multi-asset institutional and retail brokerage firm, is pleased to announce the recent win of the “Best Multi-Asset Institutional Broker – APAC” accolade at the UF AWARDS APAC 2025 ceremony. The event follows a succession of previous awards commencing in 2024 and continuing through 2025. Some of the most noteworthy titles include: “Best

Bets for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut jumped after soft jobs data but were cut back again after inflation data came in hot. The consensus was for no rate cut today, which is what we have. From the statement accompanying the decision: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at

The balance of risks are skewed to the downside The ECB continues to put forth a more guarded communique as essentially, they remain sidelined at least until the turn of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan still halfway through in achieving sustained achievement of BOJ price target Expects BOJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably hit price target Calls on BOJ to work closely with the government Abenomics has boosted GDP, created jobs Government will strategically deploy fiscal spending to boost household income, consumer sentiment She’s not being all

South Korea’s consumer prices accelerated more than expected in October, marking the fastest year-on-year rise in 15 months and complicating expectations for further policy easing from the Bank of Korea. Headline CPI rose 2.4% from a year earlier, beating a Reuters poll forecast of 2.1% and quickening from 2.0% in September. On a monthly basis,

We are keeping interest rates low, so that inflation remains in range of price stability (target range 0-2%) Our interest rates are where they should be Whether the Franc is correctly valued, overvalued or not is not decisive for our monetary policy What is important is how the exchange rate changes and its effect on

Goldman Sachs said Japan faces little immediate risk of currency intervention despite the yen’s recent slide toward ¥155 per dollar, arguing that traditional triggers for action “have not yet been met.” Info via Bloomberg report. Strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman wrote that the yen does not appear to be at particularly weak levels, with recent depreciation

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

October US ISM manufacturing index 48.7 vs 49.5 expected US October final S&P Global manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs 52.2 prelim Canada S&P Global October manufacturing PMI 49.6 vs 47.7 prior Fed’s Cook: Labor market is ‘still solid’, monitoring it Fed’s Goolsbee: My threshold for cutting in Dec is higher than at previous meeting Fed Daly:

China, Russia should steadily expand mutual investment Should create new growth points for cooperation To cooperate in areas such as AI, digital economy, and green development To also carry out cooperation in traditional fields such as energy, agriculture It’s all about the optics. After meeting with Trump last week, Xi is making it known that

Eurostoxx -1.4% Germany DAX -1.5% France CAC 40 -1.4% UK FTSE -0.8% Spain IBEX -1.6% Italy FTSE MIB -1.2% Major indices in the region are down over 1% at the open to start with. Ouch. The negative mood comes as US futures are also bleeding badly with S&P 500 futures down 1.1% with tech shares

US Treasury Secretary Bessent speaking on Fox: I will be present at Supreme Court to emphasize the importance of tariffs Need the cash from tariffs to give it to Argentina? More: says he thinks inflation and interest rates will come down This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As the year’s busiest shopping season approaches, PU Prime, a global multi-licensed online brokerage, joins the excitement of both shoppers and investors with the launch of its Black Friday Copy Trading campaign running from 3 to 30 November 2025. This season is not only exciting for shoppers to get their hands on major purchases, but

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng said Beijing will work closely with international partners to confront new global economic challenges, pledging to strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, and industrial development to bolster global stability. Speaking via livestream on Monday, He acknowledged that the global economic environment faces fresh uncertainties this year, citing rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions,

Copper prices are down 0.7% after hitting an all-time high last week. Goldman Sachs analysts are out with a note looking at supply-demand balances for 2026. Copper has traded just above the previous all-time-high, but is yet to make a clear break higher. While we believe that current fundamentals justify a copper price consolidation towards

Standard Chartered remains constructive on global equities, saying the balance of forces still favours further gains into year-end despite concerns over high valuations and signs of softening in the U.S. labour market. In a market note, the bank said it sees “tension between the positive force” of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and earnings growth,

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama says seeing one-sided rapid yen moves closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency. — Earlier: Goldman: Yen intervention unlikely near 155, gradual recovery seen over time Japan’s Takaichi: Boost revenue through growth, strengthen supply and infrastructure This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

We discussed holding and outlook for policy, being cautious There are mixed signals on the tightness of financial conditions We still got a little bit of tightness that will take a little bit of heat out of the economy to bring inflation back down It’s possible that there’s no more rate cuts but also possible

China’s central bank will strengthen policy support for the economy and accelerate efforts to promote the international use of the renminbi, a PBOC Deputy Governor said Monday in a livestreamed address. Said the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will back the development of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong, calling it a crucial step

China is offering massive power subsidies to major tech firms including ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent in a bid to accelerate the adoption of homegrown artificial-intelligence chips and reduce reliance on U.S. technology. According to people familiar with the policy, local governments in Gansu, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia have expanded subsidies covering up to 50% of

OpenAI has signed a seven-year, $38 billion cloud-computing agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) — a major expansion of its infrastructure base following a restructuring that loosened its financial ties to Microsoft. The deal gives the ChatGPT maker access to hundreds of thousands of Nvidia processors hosted on AWS to train and run its next

We are expecting comments imminently from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Note that he spoke last week following the BOC decision. The latest event began at 1:30 pm ET and it appears as though there wasn’t any prereleased text. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Panama Canal Authority expects a slowdown in global trade next year as weaker economic activity curbs shipping demand, even as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) flows through the canal continue to expand sharply. Info via Reuters report. Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez said on Monday that “a reduction in world trade is likely next year amid the

South Korea’s government said Tuesday it will restructure the domestic steel industry and expand financial support for exporters as the sector faces growing strain from U.S. and European Union tariffs and worsening oversupply. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said it plans to take “preemptive steps” to adjust production capacity in oversupplied product segments

The AUDUSD is rebounding after a sharp decline that pushed the pair below the 200-hour moving average, the 100-day moving average, and a key downside swing target. The move lower eventually ran out of momentum, prompting a retracement as the pair climbed back above several of those broken levels. The price has now returned to

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reaffirmed her government’s commitment to boost tax revenue without raising tax rates, saying the focus will be on expanding the economy’s capacity and strengthening its supply structure to sustain growth. Takaichi said her administration aims to achieve higher fiscal revenues through economic expansion, improved productivity, and a more resilient industrial

The main event on the schedule today is the Reserve Bank of Australia decision, due ay 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time. The Bank is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged. Sticky and once again rising inflation will be the prompt for the pause in the Bank’s easing cycle. Previews: data suggest price

Palantir will report their earnings after the close. The expectations are for EPS $0.17 up from $0.10 last year (70% increase) Revenues $1.09 billion up from 725.52 million last year (50.24% increase). In other details Government revenues are expected at $602.5 million a gain of 47.6% from a year ago Commercial revenue $493.7 million, a

UBS remains optimistic on the global equity outlook even as investors grow uneasy about stretched valuations and an uncertain path for US monetary policy amid the ongoing government shutdown. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at UBS Financial Services, acknowledged that “concerns over high valuations persist” and that the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook “appears murkier”

The European Commission’s trade and economic-security chief, Maroš Šefčovič, has welcomed what he described as “progress on Nexperia, key to restoring a semiconductor supply chain”, signalling the EU’s intensified focus on future-proofing internal chip flows and trade openness. At the same time, he stressed that “our work continues towards lasting stability without export control barriers”,

Federal Reserve policymakers offered a range of views late last week and on Monday, underscoring a sharply divided outlook ahead of the December 9–10 meeting, with some officials warning of inflation persistence while others emphasised rising labour-market risks. Reuters collated the views, I’ve summarised. Governor Lisa Cook : described a “tug-of-war” between the Fed’s twin

Commonwealth Bank of Australia has abandoned its forecast for another rate cut early next year, citing a broad-based resurgence in inflation that suggests the Reserve Bank will keep policy steady for an extended period. CBA economists said the key surprise in last week’s third-quarter CPI data was how widespread the price acceleration had become across

Three US courts have ruled that the US President doesn’t have the authority to declare fentanyl a national emergency and use that to place tariffs on American companies and consumers importing goods. Article 1 of the US Constitution says: The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay

Cook comments: Tariffs still driving up price pressures Slowing payroll growth tied to labor supply changes Inflation should move to 2% target once tariff impacts pass through Tariff pass-through is still playing out Underlying inflation moving to 2%, expectations are contained Remains fully committed to getting inflation back to 2% Every meeting is ‘live’, not

That’s the kind of comment that will get Canada another 10% in US tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly is speaking and says that she: Supported rate cut Rate cut was appropriate Still have inflation above target, need to get it down Labor market has softened quite a bit Need to keep policy modestly restrictive Open mind on December 50 bps of cuts this year makes Fed better-positioned

Currently it’s a comfortable situation for the ECB Risks remain high, even if they haven’t materialized or worsened recently The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a single ECB rate cut in the year ahead. The message is that the central bank is on hold with the usual tail risks around some kind

The European indices today close mixed with the German DAX leading the way to the upside while France’s CAC and UK’s FTSE 100 closed lower. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.63% France’s CAC -0.14% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.16% Spain’s Ibex, +0.03% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.11% As London/European traders look for the

Prior was 48.2 Full report Key findings: Factory output falls markedly as new orders decrease again Manufacturers anticipate lower production levels over the next 12 months Competitive pressures drive further discounting of prices charged Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The ongoing political crisis continues to

The Atlanta Fed growth estimate for Q3 rose to 4.0% from 3.9% last GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading sharply lower, down $4,700 (-4.3%) at $105,760, after touching an intraday low of $105,440. The decline marks the lowest level since October 17, and Bitcoin is now on track to close at its weakest level since July 1, when it settled at $105,709. The move comes amid renewed selling pressure driven

The USDCAD is up 0.40% and pushing into a key swing area between 1.4060 and 1.4067—a zone defined by multiple swing highs and lows from October 14 to October 21. A sustained move above this region would expose the October high at 1.4079 as the next upside target. Beyond that, buyers would likely set their

The major US indices are bleeding the gains away with the Dow industrial average and the S&P index now in negative territory. The ISM manufacturing index came in weaker than expected at 48.7 versus 49.5. Moreover the employment index remain below the 50 level comfortably at 46.0 (was 45.3 last month). Meanwhile, the Fed officials

FX option expiries for Monday 3 November (10am New York cut) Yale study finds ‘TACO gap’: U.S. tariffs on China far lower than Trump claims ICYMI: China scraps gold tax incentive, ANZ warns of market repercussions HSBC sees U.S. dollar bottoming in early 2026 amid Fed cuts and leadership uncertainty Russian Prime Minister Mishustin to

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HSBC Global Investment Research said the U.S. dollar is likely to find its bottom in early 2026, as further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and uncertainty over the next Fed chair weigh on sentiment. The bank noted that a combination of softer monetary policy and political ambiguity could extend downside pressure into next

I am uneasy with frontloading rate cuts Rates should come down with inflation Inflation data is still worrisome I’m not decided for what happens at next Fed meeting Threshold for cutting higher than at last two Fed meetings Has been more worried about inflation over jobs market There are still concerns about the jobs market

The data hasn’t changed since last projections in September In December, we’ll have new projections and will make a decision based on that new data We are keeping all options open given the uncertainties We’ve been getting such comments for several weeks now. The ECB continues to keep the door open for another rate cut,

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with CBS News that the United States will prevent China from obtaining Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology, underscoring Washington’s continued focus on restricting the flow of cutting-edge artificial intelligence hardware to its strategic rival. Trump reiterated that American-made high-performance chips are vital to national security and innovation

Prelim reading was 52.2 September final was 52.0 This is a a larger than expected revision but eyes are on the ISM survey at the top of the hour. The consensus is a reading of 49.5 from 49.1 previously. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is rebounding in the last few hours of trading, supported by softer economic data that has prompted some short covering. Interestingly, U.S. yields are not lower, with the 10-year up 1.3 basis points at 4.113%, while stocks are off their highs but also off the session lows. Technically, the pair has climbed back

First, Some quick Nasdaq related news from the last 24 hours on investingLive.com Swiss CPI and US ISM Manufacturing PMI lead the day with a light European docket and a modest baseline reaction unless surprises arrive. ECB and Fed speakers appear through the session. A Yale Budget Lab read shows the effective US tariff rate

Sector Overview: Technology Leads the Charge The technology sector is showing robust gains today, primarily driven by remarkable performances in semiconductors and consumer cyclical sectors. Nvidia (NVDA) leads the surge with an impressive 3.14% increase, while Micron Technology (MU) follows with a 5.72% uptick. These movements signify strong investor confidence amidst positive industry developments. Semiconductors:

Prior was 49.1 Prices paid 58.0 vs 61.5 expected (prior 61.9) Employment 46.0 vs 45.3 prior New orders 49.4 vs 48.9 prior Imports 45.4 vs 44.7 prior Production 48.2 vs 51.0 prior US stock markets opened higher but the S&P 500 fell to flat shortly before this report. There was also some pre-report selling in

Most people belief Powell knows. Does he know there’s no AI bubble? When asked whether the current boom in artificial intelligence resembles the dot-com bubble, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered a clear distinction. “Yeah, this is different in the sense that these companies, the companies that are so highly valued actually have earnings and

Separately, Australian September Household Spending +0.2% m/m expected +0.4%,prior +0.1% spending on services was unchanged in the month, spending on goods +0.4% for the y/y +5.1% vs. +5.5% expected and +5% in August the improvement, while tiny, will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia but its a patchy recovery in consumer demand, with

South Korea’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in October, ending a brief rebound as firms grew more cautious amid global uncertainty and the impact of U.S. tariffs. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Asia’s fourth-largest economy fell to 49.4 in October from 50.7 in September, sliding below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from

Fed’s Miran: Will not commit to another dissent in December, things could change RBA preview: “material miss” on inflation erases rate cut bets ECB’s Kazimir: No time or need to fine-tune or overengineer monetary policy UK October final manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 49.6 prelim ECB’s Simkus: Inflation to only shift marginally from target Eurozone October

I would not read too much into small deviations from a desired inflation path I see the risk as broadly balanced for both the economy and inflation Our next move could, in principle, be in either direction, depending on the signals we receive Kazimir has been neutral for a long time but this is the

Prior 46.2 Full report here Key findings: Output rises for first time in a year Total new orders and new export orders contract at slower rates Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The October PMI survey shows UK manufacturing production rising for the first time in a year, which is a

Goldman Sachs warned that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is set to inflict the largest economic hit of any shutdown on record, both in scale and duration. The bank said the current halt in federal operations appears broader than the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018–19, impacting far more agencies and government functions. While a short

The major US stock indices are set to open higher with NASDAQ index leading the way. in premarket trading, the futures are implying: Dow industrial average up 44 points S&P index up 31 point NASDAQ index up 218 point Amazon announced a $38 billion deal with OpenAI to supply Nvidia chips. Both Amazon and Nvidia

Prior was 47.7 This isn’t great but for all the tariffs, it’s also not that bad either. There has been a slow recovery since Trump started with the tariffs. USD/CAD is up 51 pips to 1.4061 today with the loonie among the G10 worst performers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.2% CPI M/M -0.3% vs -0.2% expected Prior -0.2% Core CPI Y/Y +0.5% vs +0.7% prior We have misses across the board here. The data shouldn’t matter much as the SNB has already ended its easing cycle and will need strong reasons to go back into NIRP (negative interest rate policy). SNB’s Chairman Schlegel

The USDCHF is the biggest mover of the day (+0.46%), extending higher to test a key ceiling area between 0.8071 and 0.8076. The high reached 0.8078 so far, briefly peeking above that resistance zone. A sustained break above this region would boost buyer confidence and open the door for further upside targets from previous swing

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. pre-ps: OPEC+ agrees to raise output by 137K bpd, as expected then they’ll do a TACO (but for OPEC) and pause hikes

Market-leading Fintech company X Open Hub was recently recognized by the UF AWARDS APAC 2025 as being the Best Liquidity Provider and Best Technology provider in Asia. The wins are exceptionally valuable, as the UF AWARDS are considered the industry’s most impartial and credible. The reason they have such a stellar reputation is largely because

Australia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in October, marking the first deterioration in factory conditions this year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. October final Manufacturing PMI comes in at a poor 49.7: flash reading was 49.7 51.4 in September Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global, said the October Manufacturing PMI showed

Prior was 51.5 Full report here Key findings: Stronger gains in both output and new orders Confidence improved, but staffing levels down slightly Price pressures dissipate Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Spain’s manufacturing industry continued its upward trajectory in October, as reflected in the improvement

November 2025 – HFM, the global multi-asset broker with a strong presence across Africa has announced the launch of Score & Roar, its latest regional promotion that connects the region’s passion for football with trading opportunities. Running from November 1, 2025, to February 28, 2026, the campaign offers traders and partners across Africa the chance

The USD is higher vs most of the major currencies to start the US session, the new week, and the new month. The move continues the trend started last week after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but said December was not on a preset course to cut rates. Versus the 3 major

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai and deliver a keynote address, the Commerce Ministry announced via state media outlet Xinhua on Monday. I haven’t spotted a confirmed time for his speech. Li is attending the opening so its reasonable to expect his keynote on

Repeats neutral rate is quite a way below the current policy rate A lot of factors drive financial markets It is a mistake to make conclusions about monetary policy from financial conditions alone Some financial metrics are loose but housing conditions for example are tight Changes in the neutral rate mean policy has passively tightened

New Zealand Building Consents, September 2025: +7.2% prior +6.1% +27.3& for the y/y percent higher than the same month a year ago. Data from Statistics New Zealand. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 49.5 Full report here Key findings: Output prices rise for first time in six months Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Germany’s manufacturing sector continued to tread water in October, with the headline PMI inching up to 49.6 from 49.5 in September, remaining just

EXPECTATIONS The RBA is widely expected to hold the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.6% tomorrow after the “material miss” (quoting RBA’s Governor Bullock) on inflation. In fact, the Australian Q3 inflation report last week surprised significantly to the upside, with the Trimmed Mean figure (RBA’s preferred inflation measure) printing at 1.0% Q/Q versus the RBA’s

A comment in Trump’s weekend interview with 60 Minutes (transcript here) should be a huge wakeup call to every country in the world. The US is positioning itself as a global defender in China’s rare earth case, saying it wants allies to continue to be able to get rare earths, and partnering with other G7

A new analysis suggests the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports is far lower than widely reported, challenging figures cited by both the media and former President Donald Trump. Citing research from the Budget Lab at Yale University, twitter commentator @RnaudBertrand noted that the average tariff actually applied to Chinese goods prior to the

Oil futures are open for trade, price pops after OPEC paused output hikes for Q1 2026. The news is here: OPEC+ agrees to raise output by 137K bpd, as expected More broadly on Globex, emini S&P 500 (ES) and NASDAQ (NQ) are up tiny also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China RatingDog PMI Manufacturing October 2025 is 50.6 expected 50.7, prior 51.2 China’s factory activity expanded at a slower pace in October as new orders and output weakened amid tariff uncertainty and softer global demand, a private survey showed Monday. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, eased to 50.6 from 51.2

Prior was 49.0 Full report here Key findings: Output volumes up marginally, despite fractional drop in order books Cost pressures intensify as charges discounted Confidence improves to strongest in over a year Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “October’s PMI data suggest that Italy’s manufacturing sector

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Reserve Bank of New Zealand – publishes 2025 bank stress test results Large banks well placed to withstand solvency, liquidity impact of severe scenario caused by worsening geopolitical risks Participating banks in stress test were ANZ Bank New Zealand, ASB Bank, BNZ, Kiwibank & Westpac New Zealand This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Prior 46.3 The agency notes that protectionist policies continually weigh on the industry but add that the mood has improved since September. The manufacturing PMI has never been above 50.0 since January 2023, but the trend has been to the upside since the trough in July 2023. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Trump: Not really considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles Says ‘could be’ U.S. troops on ground in Nigeria or air strikes More: There is no final straw for Putin Sometimes you have to let Russia-Ukraine get fought out I don’t set deadlines on Venezuela We have secret plans for Venezuela, lets see what happens Says will

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

We’ll have more insight on inflation in December Simkus spoke already on Friday and he’s not adding much here. He’s been leaning more on the dovish side, but it looks like he’s fine in keeping the policy rate steady now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was 49.8 Full report here Key findings: New orders flatline and employment falls in October, but output creeps higher Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “In the eurozone’s manufacturing sector, we can at best speak of a very delicate sprout of economic

Monday kicks off with manufacturing PMI releases for the Eurozone, U.K., Canada, and the U.S., followed by services PMI data two days later for some of the same countries and regions. On Tuesday, the highlight will be the RBA’s monetary policy announcement in Australia, while New Zealand will release its quarterly employment change and unemployment

JPY, JGB, Nikkei, UST traders note – it’s a market holiday in Japan today. It’s a Japanese market holiday today for Culture Day. The yen will continue to trade, of course: New Zealand Australia Singapore Hong Kong markets are all open. Interest and liquidity will be thinned out somewhat though. If you hate the yen

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Swiss CPI and the final PMI data for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the reaction will likely be muted. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is

China has abolished a long-standing tax incentive on gold sales, a policy shift that could lift consumer costs and alter pricing dynamics in one of the world’s largest bullion markets. Effective November 1, the Ministry of Finance said gold retailers will no longer be allowed to offset value-added tax (VAT) on gold purchased from the

UBS said that while no formal trade or cooperation agreement emerged from the latest U.S./China discussions, the tone of the talks was positive enough to support market sentiment. The bank described the outcome as a “modestly positive” result for global investors, suggesting it could sustain recent rallies in both U.S. and Chinese equities. UBS analysts

A couple of notes: The US and Canada switched off daylight saiving over the weekend. If you trade into North American markets you may nee to adjust your times It’s a market holiday in Japan today for Culture Day Featuring on the data agenda is the October 2025 Rating Dog China PMI published by Markit

Parent company Cboe Global Markets, based in Chicago, told investors it has begun a formal sale process for both Cboe Australia, which handles equities trading and exchange-traded fund listings, and Cboe Canada, as it refocuses on its core operations and other global growth opportunities. Roughly one-fifth of Australian equities trading currently routed through Cboe’s platform.

USD/JPY expiries remain heavily concentrated near the 150 strike — a key psychological and technical level — while notable euro and sterling interests at 1.1450 and 1.3100 could help anchor ranges into the New York cut. EUR/USD: 1.1450 (€771.9m), 1.1400 (€686m) USD/JPY: 150.00 ($1.13bn), 152.50 ($401.3m), 151.50 ($385.4m) AUD/USD: 0.6600 (A$338.6m) GBP/USD: 1.3100 (£468m), 1.3350

Melbourne Institute monthly CPI survey, for October 2025. 3.1% y/y prior 3.0% 0.3% m/m prior 0.4% The data suggest price pressures remain sticky, keeping inflation just above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target band. While the uptick is modest, it reinforces the RBA’s cautious stance on policy easing, with officials likely to seek further

The Kremlin said on Friday that Moscow places high importance on Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s upcoming visit to China, viewing it as a key event in the two countries’ growing strategic partnership. A Kremlin spokesperson told reporters that Russia hopes Mishustin will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the trip, describing such engagement

I posted on Deutsche Bank’s view of the European Central Bank on Friday, Deutsche Bank: Eurozone resilience keeps ECB doves in check but have more to add now following its latest commentary. From the note, in brief: As expected, the ECB kept policy rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting in October. President Christine Lagarde

Barclays have joined Goldman Sachs in expecting the Bank of England to cut its benchmark Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% at its meeting on Thursday November 6, 2025. The Bank of England has plenty to cite if they do go with a cut this week: weaker-than-expected UK data includes slowing wage growth, a cooling

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that the U.S. central bank should proceed with another interest rate cut in December, arguing that recent weakness in the labour market outweighs concerns about inflation — even as official data releases remain frozen by the government shutdown. “We know inflation is going to come back down,” Waller

The US and Canada switched off daylight saving over the weekend. If you trade into North American markets you may need to adjust your times. For those of us in Australia US RTH now begin an hour later in local time. If you are elsewhere its probably the same, but DYOR! For the east coast

It was a lively day in terms of price action as US stocks started very strongly, then sold off and eventually fell into negative territory in the mid-afternoon. Bids arrived late though and US stocks marched all the way back close (but not above) the intraday highs. In the last 10 minutes of trading, there

Fed’s Schmid: Dissented against rate cut because of continued momentum in economy Fed’s Bostic:Eventually got behind the cut this week.Fed’s Hammack says would not have cut Fed’s Logan (voter in 2026) says she would have preferred to hold rates Canada August GDP -0.3% vs 0.0% expected Trump told Xi: Chip sales are “between you and

I love it when a new month starts on a Monday and that’s the just the beginning of the good news for November. The clocks go back this weekend and the weather gets worse but it’s a great month for risk assets. Best month for the Nasdaq Second-best month for the S&P 500 Second-best month

OPEC+ raised output by 137,000 barrels per day, which is the same pace as last month. This round of output hikes kicks in for December but the group is clearly worried about winter oversupply as they agreed to pause hikes for Q1, 2026. That should lend some support to crude oil Monday, as it wasn’t

CNBC’s Kristina Partsinevelos reports: Trump told Xi chip sales are “between you and Nvidia.” Huang must clear antitrust, backdoor H20 risks, and energy failures. By then, a source says B30A launching mid-2026 is 50% performance and a generation behind Rubin. Beijing stalling lets developers migrate to Huawei. I think there is some worry in US

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major US stock indices are trading at Lowe’s for the day. The Dow industrial average is now down -0.18% or -89 points. At session highs the index was up 150 points. S&P index is up 3.24 points or 0.05%. At session highs the index was up 52.26

95-year-old Warren Buffett already announced that he will be stepping down from Berkshire Hathaway at year end. In February, successor Greg Abel will pen a annual shareholder letter but the WSJ reports today that Buffett will publish two letters on November 10 — one to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders and one to his three children, presumably

Fed’s Bostic is saying: Eventually got behind the cut this week Dual mandates are in tension supported a cut because it still feels we are in restrictive territory. Need to get inflation to 2%. Lesson half of upward price pressure is being reported as from tariffs. We have to see more progress before comfortable getting

Inflation expectations anchored Should proceed based on what data is telling us Should look through tariff-driven inflation Excluding temporary inflation, PCE is running at 2.5% Biggest concern now is labor market Still advocates cutting rates in December Right thing to do is to keep cutting He wants that Fed job. This article was written by

Here is a look at the week ahead from Earnings Whispers. I can’t believe D-Wave Quantum is getting top billing there above ConocoPhillips. The first is a company that reported $3.1 million in revenues last quarter and the second had $14 billion. That goes to show that we’re alot closer to the top than the

Sun: US clocks change (LDN-NY gap reverts to 5hrs); OPEC-8 Meeting. Australian Final PMIs (Oct) Mon: Japan Culture Day Holiday; Swiss CPI (Oct), EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Oct), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), Construction Spending (Sep) Tue: RBA Announcement & SoMP, French Assembly Budget (PLF/Revenue) Vote; Canadian Trade Balance (Sep), New Zealand

BlackRock unit among lenders hit by $500 million alleged private-credit fraud. The Wall Street Journal (gated) reports. BlackRock’s private-credit arm and several other lenders are seeking to recover over $500 million after what they describe as a “breathtaking” case of fraud in the opaque U.S. private-credit market. The lenders accuse Bankim Brahmbhatt, owner of Broadband

TD Securities said the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% was fully in line with expectations, with the same two board members again dissenting in favour of a hike. The firm described the central bank’s latest economic assessment as largely unchanged from July, despite a minor upgrade to 2025

China PMIs China Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is a poor 49.0, in contraction for the seventh month in row 6-month low expected 49.6, prior 49.8% Non-manufacturing 50.1 expected 50.1, prior 50.0 Composite 50.0 prior 50.6 — China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau

Nomura sees UK gilts as Europe’s most attractive bond bet Nomura Asset Management is increasing its holdings of UK government bonds, arguing they offer better value than eurozone peers thanks to higher yields and improving domestic fundamentals, according to a Bloomberg interview with Yuji Maeda, head of global fixed income at the $646 billion fund.

Japan’s finance minister issues fresh warning over rapid yen moves Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a pointed warning over what she described as “one-sided, rapid” currency moves, in her latest attempt at verbal intervention to steady the yen after recent weakness. Katayama said it was “important for currencies to move in a stable manner

Australia Private Sector Credit September 2025: 0.6% m/m vs. expected 0.6%, prior +0.6% also 7.3% y/y, fastest since January 2023 prior 7.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian Q3 PPI +1.0% q/q prior +0.2% +3.5% y/y prior +3.4% The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the quarterly rise of 1% was driven by growth in the services and construction industries, while sustained demand for residential property continued to drive rental price increases. Forget about Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts for a good

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Friday FX Option Expiries (10:00am New York cut): EUR/USD: 1.1715 (€766.5m), 1.1322 (€626.3m) USD/JPY: 152.50 ($1.42bn) AUD/USD: 0.6600 (A$888.1m) USD/CAD: 1.3850 ($1.03bn), 1.3950 ($945m) GBP/USD: 1.3250 (£314.3m) EUR/GBP: 0.8895 (€309.3m) USD/CNY: 7.0900 ($350m) Larger expiries clustered in USD/JPY and USD/CAD; moderate interest in EUR/USD and AUD/USD. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump cementing his place as a war president with his decision to resume US nuclear bomb testing. Earlier: Trump says instructed department of war to start testing our nuclear weapons Axios provide background and implications: The U.S. hasn’t conducted a nuclear test since 1992. If Trump follows through on the decision to resume testing, it

Markets are firmly convinced that the arrival of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will mean monetary policy will remain loose for longer. Since her elevation to Liberal Democratic Party leader on October 4 and subsequent confirmation as Prime Minister on October 21, investors have assumed the Bank of Japan will continue with ultra-accommodative settings aligned with

Trump: Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed department of war to start testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis Process will begin immediately Trump osted his announcement on social media. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick announces South Korea $200M investment in Alaska’s natural gas project. says semiconductor tariffs are not part of U.S.-South Korea deal This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s Premier Li says its necessary to Implement requirements of high-quality development in all fields and aspects of economic and social development Promote high-quality development as the theme, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, meet the people’s growing needs for a better life Focus more on strengthening the domestic cycle, coordinate the implementation

Toyota Motor CEO Koji Sato said the automaker does not face an immediate chip shortage following China’s export curbs on Dutch semiconductor firm Nexperia, though he acknowledged potential production risks if restrictions persist. Speaking at the Japan Mobility Show in Tokyo, Sato said there’s some risk, but it’s not like we’re facing shortages tomorrow. Adding

The long awaited meeting has begun. Earlier: Senate Democrats warn Trump: Don’t trade away national security secrets for China deal Trump trading away top AI and associated technology for soybean sales is a key risk As posted earleri: The meeting is expected to go for around three to four hours. prior negotiations took place between

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), the largest U.S. public pension fund, said it will vote against Elon Musk’s proposed $1 trillion compensation package at Tesla, setting up a major challenge to one of the biggest pay deals in corporate history. In a statement, Calpers said the proposal is “vastly greater than those of

The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting on Thursday, taking comfort in a rare stretch of economic calm marked by inflation at target and steady, if unspectacular, growth. After cutting rates by a combined two percentage points between January and June, the ECB has

Toyota executive Ueda: We are still discussing internally about reverse imports from United States Japanese government is taking positive view on issue of reverse imports from US Camry one option for reverse imports We didn’t specifically say that we will invest $10 billion in the US over the next few years We communicated to us

Bessent has praised Bank of Japan independence from the government: Bessent says Japan government gives Bank of Japan policy space, avoid excess FX volatility His comments have sent the yen stronger. Some will accuse Bessent of being a two-faced hypocrite given his government’s inference in the the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, pressuring for

The Australian Q3 2025 inflation data is here: Australian Q3 Core inflation (trimmed mean) +1.0% q/q (expected 0.8%, RBA forecast 0.6%) The result takes a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut off the table. And December too. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock said this week athat a 0.9% trimmed mean was the line

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Q3 and September month inflation data for Australia – it’s the quarterly data that is of most focus Australia Q3 CPI data: Trimmed mean CPI +1% q/q (expected +0.8%, prior +0.6%) CPI (all groups) +1.3% q/q (expected +1.1%, prior 0.7%) Weighted median CPI +1% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior 0.6%) Trimmed mean CPI +3% yr/yr (expected

US Treasury Secretary Bessent in X post: Govt’s willingness to allow BoJ policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations, avoiding excess FX volatility encouraged by Japan FinMin’s deep understanding of how Abenomics has moved away from purely reflationary policy to program that must balance growth, inflationary concerns The yen has added on a

Trump statement on something the Wall Street Journal had floated Tuesday US time. WSJ: Trump looking to lower tariffs on Fentanyl Trump now: expects to lower fentanyl linked tariffs on China will discuss farmers, fentanyl with China not sure will speak about Taiwan with Xi May speak about Nvidi;s Blackwell chip with Xi I think

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korea’s Lee: Protectionism and nationalism are rising Trade environment very different now from 20 years ago Proved shared trust is key to shared prosperity during crises Supply chain cooperation is key Business leaders in Asia Pacific region have helped achieve shared prosperity through cooperation Hopes solutions will be sought jointly to crisis at APEC

Fed poised to cut rates, but Powell expected to stay cautious The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut this week, while Chair Jerome Powell is likely to offer little in the way of new policy guidance amid growing divisions on the committee. Powell has recently underscored rising risks to the

JPY is getting a bit of a tailwind from the meeting coming up between Trump and Japan PM Takaichi. Coming up today – Trump meets Japan’s Takaichi to deepen defence, trade cooperation Takaichi has already begun ingratiating herself: Japan PM Takaichi making final arrangements to recommend Trump for Nobel Peace Prize. Hoping for a good

Australian Federal Police and the corporate watchdog, ASIC, have raided WiseTech’s headquarters part of an investigation involving alleged insider trading WiseTech Global is a firm focused on software solutions re logisitcs. A company statement said ASIC and the AFP executed a search warrant requiring the production of documents regarding alleged trading in WiseTech shares by

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

British retailers cut prices in October for the first time since March, led by the steepest fall in food costs in nearly five years, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Shop prices declined 0.3% from September, while food prices dropped 0.4%, the biggest monthly fall since December 2020. On an annual basis, overall shop

Japan economy minister Kiuchi: FX moves are determined by various factors Weak yen pushes up domestic inflation via rising import costs, could push down effective purchasing power of households, some firms Weak yen has benefit to economy by pushing up exporters’ profits, domestic capex Important for FX moves to reflect fundamentals, be stable It’s important

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi sign on framework for securing the supply of critical minerals and rare earths. This was flagged as to happen today, and here it is. White House statement: US and Japan plan to use economic policy tools and coordinated investment to accelerate the development of diversified, liquid, and fair markets

U.S./China relations are likely to remain locked in a recurring pattern of confrontation and compromise, according to Nomura’s Chief China Economist Lu Ting. Lu said the world’s two largest economies appear to be settling into a “tension–escalation–truce” cycle that will define their relationship for the foreseeable future. Recent trade talks in Kuala Lumpur suggested a