We’re open! The new week for US equity index futures has begun: S&P 500 eminis +0.15%, Nasdaq futures +0.2% Earlier news: US equity index futures are about to open – to HUGE news … not in a good way Japan is on Mountain Day holiday today – markets are closed. US bond trade impacted. Reports […]

The Financial Times has reported that Nvidia and AMD have struck a deal with the US government to hand over 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China, in exchange for export licences for those semiconductors. I posted on this earlier: Reports that Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Bowman was speaking at a bankers’ conference in Colorado Springs, on Saturday. The Wall Street Journal (gated) report: the apparent weakening in the labor market outweighs the risks

I posted the news here from the Financial Times: Reports that Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues to US government More in that article. The gist is: Nvidia and AMD have struck a deal with the US government to hand over 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer met privately with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday to deliver a message: his tariffs were damaging the very automotive industry he has pledged to protect. The conversation marked Whitmer’s third meeting with Trump at the White House since he took office in January. AP carried the report.

Discover the truth on how trading is a get rich slow scheme The post Trading Is A Get Rich Slow Scheme appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Bowman citied the collapse in the US labour market in her reasoning arguing for three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. The July

China’s consumer prices were flat y/y in July, as government efforts to rein in excessive competition offered some relief from deflationary pressures. Analysts caution that the path out of deflation will be long and may require stronger stimulus measures. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (July) 0.0%, no change from a year earlier, beating forecasts for a

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Putin told US envoy Witkoff he would agree to a cease-fire if Ukraine withdrew forces from all of Ukraine’s Eastern Donestk region. How bad do Ukraine and Russia want peace? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Yesterday in a post, I spoke about the messy AUDUSD chart (see post here). The view has not changed much today. It is still messy. Neverthess, even amongst the ups and downs, the markets will leave little nuggets from the charts that traders can use to defing the bias, the risk and the targets. In

From Bloomberg: The Trump administration suggested it would issue a new policy clarifying that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs, after the government stunned traders by ruling that they would be subject to duties. Comex gold futures surged to a new all-time high earlier in the day, but has since come off. The

PM Carney speaking on the job data released this morning said: Wage growth now outpacing CPI growth The average hourly wages increase by 3.5% versus 3.2% month. However looking at the chart still near the lows going back to the pandemic. Carney also weighed in on Israelis intention to occupy all of Gaza saying: Israel

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Pres. team is expanding the search for the new Fed chair. According to the article: New Fed chair contenders added: Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush adviser Marc Sumerlin have been added to the list of roughly 10 candidates. Other top candidates: Kevin

The EURUSD began its upside move last Friday after finding support at the 100-day moving average, which served as a strong base for buyers. That momentum extended into this week, with the pair breaking above the 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement (1.1558) of the decline from the July high. The bullish move continued

The NASDAQ index led the market higher today and this week, closing at yet another record high and extending to a new intraday high, surpassing the high price from July 31 at 21457.48. The high price today reached 21464.53. The S&P also moved higher but closed just below its prior record high at 6389.77. The

The GBPUSD bottomed this week on Tuesday near 1.32594. The Bank of England on Wednesday cut rates by 25 basis points but it was a hawkish cut as the MPC vote was 5– 4, not as high as the 7-2 expected. The price moved up to the 100 day moving average on Wednesday. On Thursday,

The weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes is showing: Oil rig +1 at 411 Gasoline -1 at 123 Total rigs -1 at 539 The price of oil is trading is trading up $0.10 at $63.98. The price remains below its 100 day moving average at $64.89 keeping bearish bias versus the daily moving averages

Putin would agree to cease-fire if Ukraine ceded Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea NASDAQ index closes at a new record high and also makes a new intraday high today Trumps team is expanding the search for the Fed Chair White House to clarify misinformation on gold tariffs Canada’s Carney: Pressed on jobs data said wage growth

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

S&P Global sees tariffs slowing 2025 oil demand growth Despite avoiding a major global recession, higher tariffs are expected to slow world oil demand sharply in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The group now forecasts demand growth of 635,000 barrels a day — less than half the 1.3 million b/d projected before U.S.

Bank of Japan July meeting ‘Summary of Opinions’. At this meeting the Bank left its short term rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Headlines via Reuters: One member said BoJ likely to continue raising rates if economy, prices move in line with its forecast One member said given high uncertainty on whether BoJ’s forecast materialises,

Japanese trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa said the U.S. has agreed to correct a presidential order on tariffs and refund any excess duties collected in error. Speaking in Washington after talks with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Akazawa stressed there was no disagreement between the two countries over reciprocal tariffs. Under the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

All 40 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at its August 12 meeting, following softer inflation and labour market data. Headline inflation fell to 2.1% last quarter — near the bottom of the RBA’s 2–3% target range — while

The Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary (post is here) revealed a wide range of views among policymakers on the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes, with members weighing persistent inflation pressures against uncertainty from trade policy and the global economy. USD/JPY popped up a little on the release. As a recap: Several

Japan data – June Household Spending +1.3% y/y expected +2.6%, prior +4.7% -5.2% m/m expected -3.0%, prior +4.6% Still to come from Japan today is the ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the Bank of Japan July 30-31 meeting: Economic calendar in Asia 08 August 2025 – we hear more from the Bank of Japan The Bank

SMIC says demand still outpacing supply, rush orders set to ease The head of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) said current demand for its products continues to exceed available supply. Speaking on Friday, the CEO noted that the wave of rush orders and accelerated shipments seen in recent months is expected to slow in the

Akazawa with the positive vibes (I hope he got it in writing this time!): Japanese trade envoy Akazawa reckons he’s made progress in US trade talks (gets a refund!) The Nikkei has responded with a jump higher. JPY is slipiing, its around 147.30 or so, also helping the Nikkei along. This article was written by

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Q2 EPS: Reported EPS: $3.14 Adjusted EPS (ex-items): $3.19 (vs. $3.14 est.) Revenue: $6.84B (vs. ~$6.7B est.) +5% y/y Global Comparable Sales: +3.8% (vs. +2.6% est.) U.S. Same-Store Sales: +2.5% (vs. -0.7% y/y) Profit: Net income rose 11% y/y to $2.25B — Apart from the company news, there is a macro angle to this. This

The Bank of England is expected to cut its key interest rate from 4.25% to 4.0% on Thursday—its fifth reduction since August 2024. The move comes as the central bank faces conflicting pressures: a weakening labour market, partly worsened by recent tax hikes and Trump trade tensions, versus persistent inflation running above target. While Governor

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the U.S. is not rushing to impose additional tariffs on China over its purchases of Russian oil, despite having just raised duties on Indian imports for the same reason. Responding to questions about whether Beijing would face secondary tariffs similar to those announced for India, Navarro noted that

Further reports of Trump to slam an extra 15% tariff on ALL Japan imports. Asahi newspaper citing White House official: U.S. to add 15% tariff on all Japanese imports U.S. will not apply exceptions to Japan for products that already have tariffs exceeding 15% – In summary, Japan had expected items currently tariffed at <

Here’s the summary of the insanity: Trump says he’ll hammer chip / semiconductor imports with a 100% tariff With me so far? Good. Trump then says that he’ll exempt firms investing, or even intending to invest, in US manufacturing from the massive tariff Following along OK? Good, here’s the earlier post on this: Trump’s 100%

I’ve done much posting on this, so not gonna repeat myself. Here: There are some reports that Trump is going to hit Japan with an extra 15% tariff, yen hit Yen has stabilised after massive news that Trump could slam Japan with extra 15% tariff That yen stability didn’t last: Further reports of Trump to

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said the oil market is returning to a more balanced dynamic, with global demand expected to grow by around 1% this year and again in 2026. Auchincloss was speaking in a CNBC interview. His view, while broadly aligned with consensus forecasts, came with an important but underappreciated implication: non-OPEC supply growth

Trade data from Australia for June 2025. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ethereum Futures Technical Analysis with tradeCompass – August 6, 2025 At the time of this analysis, Ethereum futures (ETH) are trading at $3,588, exactly flat from yesterday’s close. According to today’s tradeCompass, we enter bearish territory below $3,615, while a bullish breakout requires a sustained move above $3,655. Given that price is already under the

Deutsche Bank expects a further divergence in the near-term paths of Europe’s two major central banks, forecasting another rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) this week (the Bank meet Thursday) while suggesting the European Central Bank (ECB) may now be finished with its own easing cycle. In a note to clients, Deutsche Bank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Technical Analysis with tradeCompass (August 6, 2025) The tradeCompass snapshot Current Price: 4.216% Bullish above: 4.230 Bearish below: 4.224 Primary Bias: Bearish (at the time of analysis) 10-Year Yield Partial Profit Targets: For Bears (if and when bearish threshold is activated): 4.207 – just above yesterday’s Value Area Low 4.194 –

Japan Labour Market Data – June Nominal Cash Earnings (y/y): +2.5% (vs. +3.1% expected; prior +1.0%; revised prior +1.4%) Real Cash Earnings (y/y): –1.3% … this is the sixth straight month of decline (vs. –0.7% expected; prior –2.9%; unrevised) Cash Earnings – Same Sample Base (y/y): +3.0% (vs. +3.5% expected; prior +2.3%; revised prior +2.1%)

HSBC is warning of renewed downside pressure on the Japanese yen in the near term, citing a combination of U.S. monetary policy risks, domestic political uncertainty, and cautiousness from the Bank of Japan. While HSBC economists believe the BoJ’s recent upward revisions to its inflation and growth forecasts strengthen the case for a 25 basis

New Zealand’s labour market remained soft in Q2, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its August policy meeting. Earlier: New Zealand Q2 Unemployment rate 5.2% (vs. expected 5.3%) The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.2%, up from 5.1% in Q1, while employment

UBS says the Australian dollar is well-positioned to benefit from a broad rotation out of the U.S. dollar, with strategists identifying the AUD/USD as an attractive long opportunity at current levels. The recent rebound in the greenback dragged the pair down from a nine-month high near 0.66 to just below 0.6430. While AUD/USD has since

Via the Kansas City Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern. In a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia S&P Global July final services PMI comes in at a much improved 54.1 June was 51.8 Composite 53.8 June was 51.6 — Australia’s services sector saw stronger growth in July, marking a solid start to the second half of 2025, according to S&P Global. New business rose sharply, and export demand stabilised after four

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report: fear a decline in the world-leading economic statistics underpinning U.S. markets In brief: Banks have fielded calls from clients, anxious that they may need to rethink how they invest if inflation and employment statistics tied to U.S. investments can’t be trusted. Some worry that the firing marks

There are a few reports on Société Générale’s view doing the rounds. 2026 index could reach 6,900 by year-end a potential range of 6,500-7,250 if re-rating occurs in a rate-cutting environment say rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could push the index above 7500 in 2026 and into bubble territory SG cite positive impacts from:

New Zealand ANZ World Commodity Price Index, July 2025 -1.8% m/m prior -2.4% ANZ cite lower dairy product prices weighed +10.7% y/y, ANZ say supported by higher dairy and red meat prices The NZD Commodity Price Index fell 1.2% m/m on a stronger currency. As part of the report, ANZ discuss Global shipping prices generally

Trump will be on CNBC Squawk Box Tuesday 8am US time – pre mkt. You don’t need me to tell you he ain’t gonna be bearish, right? — CNBC’s Squawk Box is a live, weekday morning program focused on pre-market financial news, market analysis, and interviews with investors, CEOs, and policymakers. It airs from 6–9

Japan Jibun bank Services PMI for July 2025 53.6, expanded at its fastest pace in five months flash 53.5, prior 51.7 improvement was driven by strong domestic demand, which more than offset a sharp drop in export orders and weaker tourist numbers new domestic business orders grew at the quickest pace in three months export

Japan trade negotiator Akazawa plans to visit U.S. from Tuesday To push U.S. to give order to take auto tariff to take effect as soon as possible One of purposes of U.S. visit is to confirm details of the latest tariff agreement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan June 2025 meeting minutes, full text. The June meeting minutes have been dated by the July meeting. Headlines via Reuters: Many members said inflation somewhat overshooting forecast but must scrutinise economic developments due to downside risk to growth from US tariff policy One member said must support economy with current rate level

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Goldman Sachs is holding its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 steady at $56 per barrel, despite the recent production increase announced by OPEC+. The bank expects the oil-producing alliance to pause any further supply hikes, citing a build-up in OECD oil stockpiles as a key factor that could temper the group’s willingness to raise

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China is restricting the supply of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, creating production delays and driving up costs across the U.S. defense sector. These minerals — essential for everything from bullets to advanced weapons systems — are increasingly difficult to source as firms scramble to find non-Chinese alternatives. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carry

J.P. Morgan’s North America Economic Research team has raised alarm over the dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, warning that it risks undermining the integrity of U.S. economic data and, by extension, the conduct of monetary policy and financial stability. In a note titled “Concerning News from the BLS,” the bank

ANZ with their take on the slide in the price of oil: “A sharply cooling U.S jobs market and the fastest contraction in factory activity in nine months raised concerns of weaker demand” for crude oil The Wall Street Journal pass on the info from ANZ Research analysts. And add that: Media reports that OPEC+

A new research paper from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) explores how businesses set prices and how this behaviour affects inflation—both now and in the future. Key Findings: Price-setting is a major driver of inflation: The way firms adjust prices for goods and services plays a critical role in determining the pace and

A senior Canadian official said U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are expected to speak in the coming days following Washington’s decision to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered under the USMCA trade pact. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s cabinet minister responsible for U.S. trade relations, told CBS’s Face the

Trump spoke with reporters on his way back to Washington after a weekend golfing. He covered various topis. Some remarks: Nuclear submarines sent to the region of Russia Russia is good at avoiding sanctions His envoy Witkoff may be going Wednesday or Thursday, Witkoff message will be stop the killing Will be announcing who will

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge surged by 0.9% in July, marking the largest monthly increase in 19 months. On an annual basis, inflation rose to 2.9%, up from 2.4% in June, signalling renewed price pressures in the economy. Trimmed mean Australian +0.8% m/m in July, also the the most in 19 months 2.6% y/y

New York Fed President John Williams shared his views on the labor market, inflation, and interest rates in a Friday interview with Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos in New York. The Journal have provided a full transcript, which is really interesting. The journal is gated, but if you can access it, link. A notable

The major US indices are closing sharply lower with the NASDAQ index and the small-cap Russell index down over 2% each. The cause: August 1 tariffs went into effect Jobs data came in much lower, with revisions the big contributor to the weakness News that the US was positioning nuclear subs in “appropriate regions” as

Oil rigs -5 at 410 Gas rigs +2 at 124 Total -2 at 540 Crude oil is sharply lower with the price down -2 dollars at $67.27. The low price reached $67.05. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price decline is testing its 200-hour moving average at $67.08. Earlier today, the price fell below

As London/European traders look for the exits, the major indices are closing sharply lower. The tariff news and threats of global slowdown (highlighted by the US jobs report) helped to push prices lower. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, -639.50 points or -2.66% at 23425.98. France’s CAC, -225.80 point or -2.91% at

It is early in the growth estimate for Q3 from the Atlanta Fed GDP model. It has dipped as a result of the disappointing economic news released today. The model now sees a growth rate of 2.1% down from 2.3% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted

Pres. Trump has posted a warning to Russia due to provocative statements from the former Pres. of Russia Dmitry Medvedev. He writes. Recall, Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, criticized former U.S. President Donald Trump for issuing ultimatums aimed at Russia. In a message on X a few days ago, he wrote: “Each

Pres. Trump is back at it. Fire the BLS Commisioner of Labor Statistics. Dr. Erika McEntarfer is a Biden appointee and implies she is manipulating the data. Trump says the economy is BOOMING But, the Fed chief needs to be put “out to pasture” as he is too late…. No word on the tariffs. My

Now that Pres. Trump has fired the person in charge of the BLS employment report, Axios wrote an article that outlines the general BLS process to the jobs release. Here is the down and dirty without getting too much into the weeds: Release timing: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a nonpartisan agency under the

The July U.S. jobs report shifted the narrative swiftly. Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledged this change, noting that the data warrants a reassessment of Fed policy—shifting the emphasis from inflation risks alone to a more balanced view that includes growing concerns about the labor market. The report clearly points to a loss of momentum in

Fed Gov.Adriana Kugler is resigning her position effective August 8, to accept a position at Georgetown. That opens an appointment from Pres. Trump. Fed governors also have a permanent vote on the Fed. With the president already licking his chops to appoint a new Fed chair, this gives him a total of two appointees. Recall

Major US indices close lower on tariffs, jobs, nuclear subs and a firing Why are jobs revised and is there a better way? I think so. It starts with the data. Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler announces her resignation from the Fed Board effective August 8 Trump: Jobs data is manipulated lower. The economy is booming

Japan June unemployment rate remains at 2.5% expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job to applicant ration 1.22 expected 1.25, prior 1.24 This data does not tend to move around JPY much at all, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Friday the government acknowledges the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold interest rates steady, noting that policymakers acted prudently amid ongoing uncertainty in both domestic and global economic conditions. aware the BOJ chose to keep rates unchanged while mindful of the need to scrutinise developments at home and abroad,

20% tariff on Taiwan 19% tariff on Cambodia 19% tariff on Thailand 19% tariff on Malaysia 20% tariff on Vietnam 39% tariff on Switzerland 19% tariff on Indonesia Stems from this: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% Australia cops 10%, New Zealand 15% Israel 15% Venezuela 15% Turkey

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tariff news is back in the headlines with Trump signing tariff-related executive orders on a wide range of coutnires, more in these posts: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% Trump has hammered Switzerland with a 39% tariff rate Officials at the White House are scrambling with clarifications, notably

It’s a groundhog sort of day, back to tariff news: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% Trump has hammered Switzerland with a 39% tariff rate More: all goods that are considered to have been transshipped to avoid applicable duties will be subject to an additional 40% tariff, while

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The latest tariff news here: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% The 35% rate goes into effect in just a few hours time, when US Eastern time ticks over to August 1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan Jibun Manufacturing PMI, final reading comes in at a dour 48.9 vs. preliminary 48.8, previous 50.1 Japan’s factory activity contracted in July, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.9 from 50.1 in June, confirming a return to decline after briefly stabilising. The final reading was nearly unchanged from the flash estimate of

Some verbal intervention to support the yen from Kato here Won’t comment on forex levels Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Alarmed over FX moves, including those driven by speculators This is standard sort of stuff from Kato, remarks follow the sharp decline in the yen. Kato trying to provide some

Japan Preliminary June Industrial production come in improved from May, a welcome development. +4% y/y prior -2.4% +1.7% m/m expected -0.6%, prior -0.1% Still to come from Japan today: Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, July 31, 2025 – BoJ interest rate decision, China PMIs PREVIEW – BOJ likely to hold steady, market too hawkish on

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser CPI data were very welcome (ICYMI, CPI lower) Trimmed mean dead in line with our forecasts Full impact of tariffs is yet to come This will be a real tax increase in the US Our forecasts were based on rates falling gradually toward 3.2% Models of neutral

South Korea’s KOSPI stock index jumps 0.6+5% higher after US trade deal Hyundai motor +3% Earlier: Trump announces a trade deal with South Korea This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fireside chat with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser at the Barrenjoey Economic Forum, Sydney. Live link when it begins. Listening out for any hints of the August interest rate cut coming up from the Bank, yesterday’s CPI data seems to have locked in expectations: InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Earthquake rocks Pacific, Aus CPI, China fiscal

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan June Retail sales come in much better than expected, a welcome development. The Bank of Japan will remain on hold today is the expectations (see links below for previews). +1.0% m/m prior -0.2% +2.0% y/y expected +1.8%, prior +1.9% Still to come from Japan today: Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, July 31, 2025 –

Xinhua commentary on China-U.S. trade talks China is 100% sincere in the consultations Some deep-seated and structural problems in China-US economic and trade relations cannot be solved overnight China is willing to properly handle differences through dialogue and consultation and find a solution to tariff issue There appears to be some wobbles in the trade

15% Tariff Deal Avoids Higher Rate: The U.S. will implement a 15% tariff on South Korean imports, sidestepping a potential 25% tariff that would have come into effect on August 1 without an agreement. Comprehensive Trade Agreement Announced: Trump announced a “full and complete” trade agreement with South Korea in a statement on Truth Social.Post

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Made trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand Lutnick announcing in a Fox News interview. Countries getting in before the August 1 deadline. Earlier: Trump announces a trade deal with South Korea Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea earlier – recap ICYMI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

ANZ New Zealand business survey Business confidence 47.8% prior 46.3% Business activity 40.6% prior 40.9% ANZ comments: “It continues to be tough going for many firms. Most forward-looking activity indicators saw little movement this month.” “The past activity measures show a very wide range of experiences across different sectors, with agriculture storming ahead but construction

The US dollar is dribbling lower across the majors board in Asia morning terade. Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. Eyes are open for Australian inflation data due soon: Economic calendar in Asia 30 July 2025 – Australian official inflation data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

This post, and the thread that follows, from Matt Busigin is worth checking out. I’ve tried to summarise the findings, probably poorly. Perhaps the most compelling finding is that Phillips Curve residuals may serve as a recession early-warning system. Spikes in residual volatility often occur 12 to 18 months before a downturn. “The ‘broken’ model

Tohoku Elec. Says no tsunami impact to Onagawa nuclear plant Follows this: Another massive earthquake – magnitude 8.7, Russia east coast This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Magnitude 8.7 earthquake strikes Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia region 8.7 is the strongest seen anywhere since 2011 Tsunami warnings have been issued across the North Pacific 3 and 4 metre wave heights have been reported from the Russian coast This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tsunami warnings have been issued across much of Japan’s eastern coastline, with authorities urging residents in coastal, riverfront, and lakeside areas in several prefectures to evacuate to higher ground without delay. Re these: Another massive earthquake – magnitude 8.7, Russia east coast Tsunami alert after Mag 8 earthquake off east coast of Russia Also: Tsunami

Monetary Authority of Singapore leaves monetary policy on hold at its 30 July 2025 meeting: MAS will maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$neer policy band There will be no change to its width and the level at which it is centred More from the statement, in brief: For 2025 as a whole,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

I posted earlier on the tsunami alert in Hawaii. Alerts intensifying now. More: Tsunami waves reaching more than 3 metres above the tide level are possible along the coasts of Ecuador Russia Waves between 1-3 meters are possible along the coasts of Chile, Hawaii, Japan, Soloman Islands. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Re this: Active shooter in Manhattan, New York; police officer and civilian shot From NYPD: Due to police activity, please avoid the vicinity of East 52 Street between Park Avenue and Lexington Avenue. Expect emergency vehicles & delays in the surrounding area. Live feed here: Unconfirmed photo. These things are easy to fake, so treat

UK shop prices rose at their fastest pace since April 2024 in the year to July, driven by a sharp pickup in food inflation, according to the British Retail Consortium. Overall shop prices increased 0.7% year-on-year +0.2% expected. prior +0.4% food prices surged 4.0%, the strongest since February Rising costs for essentials like meat and

Trump has cut his previously announced 50-day deadline for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, now giving Moscow just “10 or 12 days” to reach an agreement. Speaking at a press conference in Scotland alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday, Trump said there’s no point in further delays and expressed frustration over the lack of

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its bullish outlook for U.S. equities, forecasting the S&P 500 will climb to 7,200 within the next year, a roughly 12% gain from recent levels. The bank’s call is underpinned by what it describes as a “rolling recovery” in corporate earnings, marking a shift from the rolling earnings recession that began

In Hong Kong there are three levels of rain warnings: Amber, Red, and Black. The Amber alert signals the possibility of heavy rain that could intensify into more severe Red or Black conditions. During this stage, flooding may occur in low-lying or poorly drained areas, and key government agencies along with transport and utility services

Morgan Stanley raises its S&P 500 target to 7200, expecting that target by the middle of 2026. We had a year end target posted earlier: ICYMI – Oppenheimer lifts S&P 500 year-end target to 7,100 Like in that post, Morgan Stanley also cit: strong corporate earnings trade deals strong U.S. economy wider macro factors Morgan

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

While not directly related to financial markets, some disturbing ews out of the US:’ Active shooter with an assault rifle 345 Park Avenue near East 52 Street NYPD officer and a civilian among those shot suspect reportedly wearing a bullet-proof vest If oyu are in the area, steer clear and saty safe. This article was

Singapore’s central bank is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged this week, taking a cautious stance amid uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs. According to a Bloomberg survey (gated), 14 of 19 economists predict the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will maintain its current settings, while a minority, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Bloomberg (gated) have a piece up: Hedging by Australia’s Pension Funds Set to Boost Local Dollar Bloomberg is gated, but in brief it discusses how t e Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to continue rising, supported by increased currency hedging activity from major Australian pension funds. These funds, with significant exposure to offshore assets, play

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

EUR/USD jumped a little higher on the weekend news of a EU/US trade tariff framework deal and has since trcked more less sideways in a small sort of range. Equities liked the news also: US equity index futures jump higher to open the new week’s trade – EU/US trade deal EUR/USD update: Earlier: Monday open

ES and NQ, and others, futures are open for trade on Globex to begin the new week: ES +0.4% NQ + 0.6% (those numbers will have changed by the time I hit publish, and continue to change as the session unfolds, but you get the idea). A US official released some remarks timed to coincide

Samsung Electronics announced on Monday that it has secured a $16.5 billion contract to provide semiconductors to a major global company. Info via Reuters. More: for contract chip manufacturing details won’t be disclosed until end 2033 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Senior administration official: Aircraft investigation is still in works, will wait for completion of that, tariff will be zero for now It is likely that aircraft won’t face tariffs, but have to wait for probe to end More: Steel tariff remains at 50% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK Prime Minister Starmer will meet US President Trump on Monday central to the meeting will be efforts to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza. also under discussion will be efforts to remove the remaining obstacles to their trade ‘framework’ The trade framework was announced back in May. It was announced again in June. A deal

Bloomberg reports on the main influences trapping oil prices. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: Oil traders grappling with tension between warnings of a weakening market and strong current prices near $70 a barrel. The International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration expect a surplus of oil next year, with the IEA projecting

Emergency crews and the Bomb Squad are actively investigating a suspicious package near the White House multiple street closures in the area Authorities urging the public to avoid the vicinity This is an old pic, probably unrelated 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese markets are reopening today after the holiday Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain

Ever opened a news site or scrolled through social media, only to find the markets “crashing,” “surging,” or “on the brink of collapse”? Every day, traders are hit with a tidal wave of headlines, expert opinions, breaking alerts, and hot takes. It can all feel urgent, emotional, and important. If you’re not careful, it can completely hijack

The major European indices are closing mixed to end the trading week. For the week, the indices are closing mostly higher the German DAX the one exception. France’s CAC was near unchanged but higher For the trading day: German DAX -0.32% France’s CAC +0.21% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.20% Spain’s Ibex -0.13% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.31%

Oil rig count -7 at 415 Gas +5 at 122 Total rig -2 at 542 The price of crude oil is trading down $-0.61 at $65.42. For the trading week, the price tested its 100-day moving average, currently at $64.91. The low price for the week $64.76 on Wednesday, but it could not sustain momentum

Crude oil futures settled at $65.16, down $0.87 on the day. Earlier this week, the price briefly broke below the falling 100-day moving average (blue line on the chart), but each time, downside momentum faded and daily closes returned above that level—indicating a lack of sustained bearish conviction. Heading into the new trading week, sellers

EU von der Leyen is speaking and says that after a good call with Pres. Trump, that they: Will meet with Trump in Scotland on Sunday Will discuss transatlantic trade relations and how we can keep them strong. HMMM is that not great a comment? Am I reading too much into the “how we can

Pres. Trump is reiterating comments from earlier in the day as he crosses the Atlantic for his weekend visit in the UK: We will see if we can make a deal with EU on Sunday Will be meeting with a lot of people including EU leader . We have a good 50-50 chance of EU

Tesla not allowed to test or transport the public, paid or unpaid, in an autonomous vehicle with or without a driver…Shares dip to $312.70. High reached $323.63 today. The price is still above the lower for the day at $308 and still higher on the day, but price is dipping. Taking a look at the

The USDCHF started the week strong, with Monday’s high stalling near a key swing area between 0.8017 and 0.8023. However, after breaking below the 200-hour moving average (Green line on the chart above) later that day, the pair remained under that level for the rest of the week. That MA, currently at 0.79836, remains a

The broader indices closed higher with the S&P and NASDAQ at record closing levels once again. The Dow industrial average is within 113 points after getting within four points earlier this week before rotating lower. All three major indices closed higher for the week. A snapshot of the closing levels: Dow industrial average up 208.01

Next week will be the biggest week for news and earnings for this quarter. In addition to the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM on Wedneday followed by the Fed Chair press conference, the US employment data will be released on Friday at 8:30 AM. Also scheduled for release: Tuesday: Australia CPI (9:30 PM ET

US stock indices close higher with the S&P and NASDAQ indices at new records again Trump: We will see if we can make deal with EU on Sunday. Crude oil settles at $65.16 It will be a tidal wave of earnings and economic data next week. Baker Hughes oil rig count -7 at 415 EUs

Japan inflation data for July 2025, Tokyo area. This leads the national figures by around 3 weeks and is seen as a guide to what the national levels will be. Tokyo CPI 2.9% y/y expected 3.0%, prior 3.1% CPI excluding-Fresh Food 2.9% (core CPI) expected 3.0%, prior 3.1% Ex-Fresh Food, Energy 3.1% (core-core CPI, this

Trump: “After many years Australia has agreed to accept American Beef! For a long time, and even though we are great friends, they actually banned our Beef. Now, we are going to sell so much to Australia” This news was out, here in Australia at least, earlier this week. Trump announcing it now on his

UK consumer confidence edged lower in July, with GfK’s index falling to -19 from June’s -18, reflecting growing caution among households. The dip, though modest, suggests rising anxiety ahead of potential tax hikes in the upcoming autumn budget. The reading was slightly better than economists’ forecast of -20. GfK’s Neil Bellamy noted the data indicates

Info comes via Bloomberg (gated), in brief: Healthcare Triangle the most actively-traded name on US exchanges on Thursday little-known healthcare information technology company stock price more than double to just above five cents over 3 billion shares changing hands, about 15% of the total shares traded on US exchanges for the day The total value

Japan’s June Services PPI +3.2% y/y expected +3.2% prior 3.3% Earlier from Japan, headline and both core inflation measures remained well above target in Tokyo in July: Tokyo headline July CPI 2.9% (vs. 3% expected) The CSPI comes from the Bank of Japan. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As reported earlier, core inflation in Tokyo—a key leading indicator for nationwide price trends—remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in July, reinforcing expectations that the BOJ may hike rates again later this year or into 2026. Core CPI (excludes fresh food) rose 2.9% y/y in July, just shy of the 3.0% forecast

The Swiss franc may trade sideways in the near term as markets await clarity on trade relations between the U.S. and Switzerland, according to a note from Commerzbank. Unlike other nations, Switzerland has not yet received a formal tariff warning from President Trump ahead of his planned August 1 tariff rollout. This has provided temporary

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Uncertainty over the future of Federal Reserve leadership is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, according to a note from Bank of America. The bank says concerns around the Fed’s direction have “arguably impacted the USD more than other assets so far,” preventing the currency from sustaining a rally. With speculation mounting over whether Chair

Morgan Stanley says corporate investment in artificial intelligence is beginning to pay off, with early adopters now pulling ahead in terms of earnings performance and market returns. In its latest AI Adopter Survey, the bank found that AI integration is accelerating across key sectors — particularly financials, real estate, and consumer durables. The shift is

Cboe Global Markets announced on Wednesday that it will exit its Japanese equities operations, which includes both the Cboe Japan proprietary trading system and the Cboe BIDS Japan block trading platform. The company plans to halt operations on August 29, 2025, pending discussions with regulatory authorities before finalising the closure. The move comes as shifting

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: New Fed Chairman nominee is likely to be announced in December or January I posted earlier on the week that Bessent was trying to soothe Trump and have him relent on firing Powell: Bessent urges Trump not to fire Fed Chair Powell in private pitch to keep stability Trump read that,

The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting today, Thursday, July 24, 2025. statement due at 1215 GMT/ 1815 US Eastern time European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak a half hour later The ECB is seen pausing after a year-long string of cuts as it monitors the uncertain

AMD CEO Lisa Su has acknowledged that semiconductor chips produced at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)’s upcoming facilities in Arizona will come at a significant cost premium. In an interview with Bloomberg’s Ed Ludlow in Washington, Su said the chips are expected to be 5% to 20% more expensive compared to similar components made in

Japan Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (July) 48.8, falling back into contraction Expected 50.2, Previous: 50.1 Services 53.5 Previous: 51.7 Composite 51.5 Previous 51.5 Japan’s manufacturing activity fell back into contraction in July dragged down by rising uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and fresh tariffs Output and new orders both declined Japan’s services sector continued to outperform

The USD is broadkly lower, just a touch, here in Asia morning trade. AUD is a beneficiary, but not the only one. EUR, NZD, GBP … all higher for the morning. AUD data just out, PMIs moving further into expansion: Australia preliminary July 2025 manufacturing PMI 51.6 (prior 50.6) This article was written by Eamonn

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

South Korea says trade talks with US cancelled, scheduling issue South Korea says 2+2 trade talks with the U.S. have been cancelled. The talks were cancelled due to the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s schedule. The U.S. has proposed holding another round of talks in the near future. South Korea and the U.S. will set a new

Australia S&P Global July flash services PMI at 53.8 (vs 51.8 in June) Australia S&P Global July flash manufacturing PMI at 51.6 (vs 50.6 in June) Composite 53.6 (prior 51.6) All three moving further into expansion, solid results indeed. And you lot want a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut? 😉 ps, Reserve Bank of

Goldman Sachs is maintaining its bullish forecast for U.S. natural gas prices, reiterating a $4.50/mmBtu target for Summer 2026 Henry Hub. The bank noted that risks to its outlook are tilted to the upside, particularly if there are delays in producer investment. Looking ahead, Goldman continues to expect that a pickup in drilling activity will

Markets have been disappointed over and over again by the misleading announcements from Trump. There is wariness over this latest: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with Japan Trump says hes not lying this time, Japan deal is a ‘lot different’ from deals in the past Its more reassuring to get this from

Japanese stocks are rising strongly, the N225 is +2.4%, on the talk of the deal. The yen is choppy and since the US close is barely net changed. JGB yields have risen. What we have so far is a tweet from Trump, and some media commtns: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with

Hirofumi Suzuki, Chief Currency Strategist at SMBC in Tokyo, says the trade news is encouraging for Japan’s economy , but not sufficient to shift the Bank of Japan’s policy stance. “This is good news for the Japanese economy. However, it alone will not prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates,” he said. Suzuki

This tweet from PIMCO raises more questions than it answers, especially for runaway spening in the US: The more I reread this, the more I think its possible to simply substitute ‘US’ for ‘Brazil’. US government spending is already epically unsustainable, Trump’s recent spending increases and tax cuts for the wealthy make it even more.

Trump says it’s the largest deal in history: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with Japan He is seeking to reassure us that it is a deal, and not baloney like all previous announcements have been : says just signed the largest trade deal in history with Japan says great deal for everybody

By all means trade this ‘news’, just be wary of the divergence between Trump’s ‘deal’ announcements and realtiy that we have see time and again: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with Japan Nikkei futures are up, as are US equity futures. Yen gained but is already lower than where it was prior

Japan and US agreed to 15% auto tariff according to NHK, citing Japan govt official. NHK is Japan’s public broadcaster. Meanwhile, Japan’s PM Ishiba: Decline to comment on negotiation details Can’t say until I scrutinise outcome of trade deal with U.S., when asked how deal could affect his decision on whether to step down as

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Westpac says its Leading Index continues to show stalling momentum. Comments from analysts at the bank: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.03% in June from 0.11% in May. Main

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, projecting three consecutive 25bp reductions—one at each meeting through year-end— provided inflation expectations stay anchored. September 16-17 October 28-29 December 9-10 The bank emphasises that the easing cycle is contingent on inflation not flaring up again, but with current trends holding, it

Stellantis said Monday that Trump’s tariffs have cost the company nearly $350 million in the first half of 2025, citing direct payments and lost production. Total losses for the period could reach $2.7 billion, according to preliminary data, driven by tariff-related expenses, efforts to boost profitability, and compliance with new fuel emissions rules following Trump’s

Trump ‘tweeting’ on his app: Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on the Iran Nuclear Sites: “Damages are very severe, they are destroyed.” Of course they are, just like I said, and we will do it again, if necessary! As interviewed by Bret Baier. Fake News CNN should immediately fire their phony “reporter” and apologize to

U.S. Treasury’s Bessent says deeper reforms of banking regulatory structure are needed-remarks at Federal Reserve conference U.S. bank regulators should consider abandoning ‘flawed’ dual capital requirements for banks Outdated capital requirements are misaligned with actual risk, impose unnecessary burdens Community banks could be allowed to opt in to modernized capital regime, reducing capital requirements Bank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks before hybrid “Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks” Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve 1230 GMT/0830 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman hosts fireside chat to discuss effects of artificial intelligence on banks, businesses, and consumers and how we

New Zealand trade data for June 2025 Exports $NZD 6.63bn, prior 7.50bn Imports 6.49bn, prior 6.42bn Trade Balance 12 month YTD -4366mn NZD, prior -3931mn NZD/USD little changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia will finally gain a complete monthly insight into inflation from November 26, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) begins publishing a fully-formed monthly CPI report, bringing the country in line with nearly all OECD nations. This marks the beginning of a phased wind-down of the quarterly CPI, which has guided the Reserve Bank

The Japanese yen gapped higher in early Monday trade as results came in from Japan’s Upper House election. Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition suffered a major blow, losing its majority in the upper chamber — having already lost control of the lower house in October. With minority government in both chambers now, Japan looks set

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate. CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range. A significantly stronger or weaker rate

UK consumer confidence fell sharply in Q2, marking its first meaningful drop since late 2022. Deloitte’s index fell 2.6 points to 10.4%, the lowest reading since early 2024, driven by job security fears. Persistent inflation, high living costs, and concerns over income growth weighed heavily on sentiment. Despite gloom among consumers, Deloitte noted resilience in

Be careful of what you hear from Trump’s social media app, I am wondering if his account has been hacked? This is one of many strange ‘tweets’ he is posting: It’s a video that I haven’t uploaded here. — Trump’s social media is often the source of major market-moving posts, hence the question if its

New Zealand inflation data for Q2 2025 a little lower than expected more to come 0.5% q/q expected 0.6%, prior 0.9% 2.7% y/y expected 2.8%, prior 2.5% CPI tradeables 0.3% q/q expected 0.5%, prior 0.8% CPI Non tradeables 0.7% q/q expected 0.7%, prior 1.1% Both the kiwi $ and NZ yields have dropped on this

People’s Bank of China rate setting: 5-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.50% vs 3.50% expected and 3.50% last month also 1-year at 3% vs. 3% expected and 3% last month too In 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) implemented significant reforms to its monetary policy framework to enhance the effectiveness of its policy transmission

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China has quietly issued its first rare earth mining and smelting quotas for 2025 without the usual public announcement, according to sources familiar with the matter — a move seen as part of Beijing’s efforts to tighten control over the strategically vital sector. The rare earth quota system is a key tool used by China,

The Singapore dollar is under renewed pressure as U.S. trade tensions escalate and expectations grow that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may ease its exchange-rate policy to support the economy. SGD has been weakening alongside a rebounding U.S. dollar and now faces fresh risks from potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — two

The UK government has announced that the first wave of self-driving taxis, private hire vehicles, and bus-like services will be permitted on public roads from spring 2026. This move is part of the country’s broader strategy to position itself as a global leader in autonomous vehicle technology, following the recent passage of the Automated Vehicles

Asking prices for newly listed UK homes fell 1.2% in July, the sharpest drop for that month in over 20 years. Sellers are pricing more competitively amid high inventory levels and increased buyer sensitivity to overpricing. Rightmove cut its 2025 price growth forecast to 2% from 4%, despite sales running 5% above 2024 levels. Falling

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Sun: Japanese Upper House Election Mon: PBoC LPR; Canadian PPI (Jun), US Leading Index (Jun), New Zealand Trade (Jun), UK CBI (Jul) Tue: UK PSNB (Jun), US Richmond Fed (Jul) Wed: EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul) Thu: ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements; EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Jul), US Weekly Claims, National Activity Index

Is the dollar let out of the dog house just yet? Well, not exactly. The latest recovery in the greenback in the past two weeks comes as Trump is threatening tariffs once again. It’s a more moderate version of Liberation Day one might say, with TACO trades seemingly fully priced in before this. So, what’s

NASDAQ closes the day higher and closes at record levels each day this week What key events the releases are scheduled for next week’s trading? California Gov. Newson proposes to ease permits for oil drilling in California Fed’s Goolsbee: Need some resolution on tariffs ot understand impact on inflation Trump signs GENIUS Act (Guiding and

The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) is the first comprehensive federal law to regulate U.S. dollar–backed stablecoins. It outlines clear rules for who can issue stablecoins, how they must be backed, and what compliance standards they must meet. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable

After the Financial Times reported that Pres. Trump is pushing for a 15 – 20% tariff on all the EU goods and looks to keep 25% tariff on autos, the US stocks have tilted to the downside. Dow industrial average -0.55% S&P index -0.18% NASDAQ index 0.16% Russell 2000-0.64% Both the S&P and the NASDAQ

Fed’s Goolsbee is getting another word in before the quiet period: New Round of tariffs to apply to parts, copper, and revisiting Europe, Canada tariffs doesn’t help Need some resolution on tariffs to understand impact on inflation.. Drip Drip announcements on tariffs means can’t make the argument tariffs mean a one-time increase in price level.

The earnings season heats up a little more next week. The bigger names, like Amazon, Apple, Meta or still a week or so away but Tesla and Alphabet will highlight some of the releases next week. Below is a list of the key earnings: Monday 7/21 – Before Open: Verizon (VZ), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Monday 7/21 – After Close: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Tuesday 7/22 – Before Open: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Coca‑Cola (KO),

Next week, the Fed will be in the quiet period ahead of the FOMC rate meeting on July 30. The S&P Global flash manufacturing and services data will be released for Europe and the US on Thursday. The ECB will likely keep rates unchanged, but given the tariff threat, will likely be biased to more

California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposes to ease permits for oil drilling in California. Governor Gavin Newsom has not supported new drilling, but is also under pressure to stabilize energy supplies, particularly after recent refinery closure announcements. While he remains committed to phasing out oil drilling by 2045, state regulators have recommended limited new well permitting

Oil rigs -2 to 422 Gas rigs +9 to 117 Total rigs +7 at 544 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is closing the day higher and has closed at record levels each day of this week. The gain however, was marginal with a rise of only 0.05%. Nevertheless, it was good enough for a record. The NASDAQ has closed at a record level 11 different times this year. The index rose 11.39

That is an absolutely staggering number if you think about it. And as the world continues to embrace the AI-driven future, Nvidia is now the poster boy not only for that revolution but also for the stock market. After its struggles in the first four months this year in the run up to Trump’s Liberation

The Wall Street Journal have a piece up on the data from Japan earleir. Data is here: Japan June 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, still The Journal is gated, but in brief: Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed to 3.3% year-over-year in June, down from 3.7% in May and in

The Wall Street Journal has published an article that is not going to make the White House happy. From the article (gated): The letter bearing Trump’s name, which was reviewed by the Journal, is bawdy—like others in the album. It contains several lines of typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, which

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speech. Waller signalled support for a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming July meeting, citing increased downside risks to the economy and growing signs of labour market weakness. He warned against waiting for a sharper deterioration in employment before acting, arguing that delaying could require more aggressive policy moves later.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller Q&A Lots of uncertainty around long-term Fed funds rate; 3% seems right Long-term bond yields don’t suggest loose financial conditions No one from the Trump administration has talked to him about taking the Fed chair Cut rates in July and then adjust policy meeting by meeting Stablecoins introduce competition into

All three of the main inflation measures in Japan remain well above the 2% Bank of Japan target rate Headline CPI 3.3% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.5% Core CPI (this is excluding fresh food) 3.3% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.7% analysts are attributing the drop from May on temporary cuts in utility bills and the

Japan holds upper house elections on Sunday, July 20, in a key mid-term test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling LDP–Komeito coalition. The vote will decide 124 of 248 seats and follows last year’s lower house setback for the government. Recent polling suggests the LDP may lose its upper house majority, adding political instability to

Canada’s international trade minister says they are working to get officials talking to their Chinese counterparts as soon as possible to address trade challenges Says the agreement to bring back the Indian high commissioner will be an important step for dialogue and supporting trade as it grows Says there is appetite from both sides to

The U.S. House of Representatives approved three major cryptocurrency bills on Thursday, signaling a significant step forward for the digital asset sector. The GENIUS Act, which sets rules for stablecoins, passed with a 308-122 vote and now goes to President Trump. The CLARITY Act, aimed at defining the broader structure of crypto markets, passed 294-134

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan June 2025 trade data Imports +0.2% year/year expected -1.6%, prior -7.7% Exports -0.5% year/year expected +0.5%, prior -1.7% exports drop for the second month in a row Trade balance +153.1 bln yen expected 353.9bn yen, prior -638.6bn yen Exports To U.S. -11.4% year/year To China -4.7% year/year To Asia +1.7% year/year To EU +3.6%

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump spoke in an interview following his disruptive statements on Wednesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul:The near firing/unfiring of Powell unsettle markets Trump said he would love for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign but that it would disrupt the markets if the president were to remove him. Trump made the comments

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on Wednesday reaffirmed the importance of central bank independence and the enduring role of the U.S. dollar, while declining to comment on President Trump’s recent criticisms of the Fed. Speaking to reporters, Williams sidestepped questions about reports suggesting President Trump was considering firing Fed Chair Jerome

Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard has withdrawn its $47 billion takeover bid for Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, citing delays and a lack of constructive engagement. The move ends a year-long effort to acquire the 7-Eleven parent and highlights broader questions about Japan’s openness to foreign takeovers. Couche-Tard had raised its offer multiple times and proposed

Wall Street Journal reporting (gated). In brief: Some Trump administration officials are delaying a major deal that would allow the United Arab Emirates to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of advanced AI chips from Nvidia, citing national security concerns. Although Trump backed the agreement during his May visit to the Middle East and both sides

UBS have raised their euro forecasts: EUR/USD projected to $1.23 by June 2026 (previous forecast for June ’26 was 1.2) $1.21 at the end of 2025 (with previous forecast 1.16) Citing the euro will be the key alternative for global investors seeking to diversify away from the U.S. dollar: euro stands out as the ‘default’

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on what he believes is a reasonable estimate of the neutral rate of interest. Seems very low … More: Neutral rate levels haven’t really changed much in a while Acknowledges economists see slower growth outlook relative to traders, investors and markets Financial conditions are pretty supportive

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams keynote speech before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series. Q&A now. Inflation has moderated unevenly, in part due to housing-related factors. Without tariffs, inflation would be closing in on 2%. It’s not surprising that tariff impacts have been growing. Not surprised

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports jumped 13.0% year-on-year in June, far exceeding the 5.0% rise forecast in a Reuters poll follows a 3.9% decline in May Over the first half of 2025, non-oil exports rose 5.2% year-on-year. Driven by strong gains in shipments of PCs (+53.8%), integrated circuits (+17.5%), and non-monetary gold (+211.9%). Exports rose to

US starts Section 301 tariff probe on Brazil’s trade practices: due to its “continued attacks on the Digital Trade activities of American Companies”. Last week Trump announced a 50% tariff rate for Brazil. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: A lot of uncertainty about tariff pass-through to consumers Many companies want to wait and see how tariffs are settled before they pass on higher prices to consumers We’ll be looking at the data in summer, into fall before we have a good read Fed builds its credibility by explaining

Ethereum has risen to a more than five-month high above $3,138. Ethereum’s price gains are being driven by a powerful mix of regulatory clarity, institutional interest, technical progress, and its expanding role in stablecoins and DeFi. More: Stablecoin growth & regulation tailwinds: Ethereum provides the infrastructure for nearly half of all stablecoins. The GENIUS Act

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remarks at a World Affairs Council event in San Antonio. Base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation down Want to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced June CPI data suggests PCE inflation, which the Fed targets at 2%,

10-year US Treasury yield rises to a one-month high of 4.495% — I posted earlier on the worries facing Asia traders as they filter in to the office: Asian markets will wake up to a troubling picture on Wednesday – risks all over the place Higher US yields on of them. Not showing that 4.495

China foreign minister: SCO Tianjin summit to be held from August 31 to September 1 Leaders of more than 20 countries and heads of 10 international organizations expected to attend summit — China is hosting the 25th SCO Heads-of-State Summit this autumn (late August to June 25–26) in Tianjin as part of its 2024–2025 chairmanship.

China commerce ministry: China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation and review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says Powell renovations ‘sort of is’ a fireable offense. Earlier: Trump: Bessent an option to replace Fed chair but I like the job he’s doing at Treasury This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump posts on his social media app that he has secured the necessary votes. The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) is a bipartisan 2025 bill that would create the first federal regulatory framework for U.S.-dollar–pegged stablecoins—mandating strict reserve backing, regular audits, and clear oversight to protect consumers and stabilize

USD/JPY is sitting just shy of 147.90 as I post. Recent highs are arojund here from late June, and mid-May before that. I am wondering when the Bank of Japan and Japanese government will begin to worry about the yen weakness nough to try verybal intervention? 150 is a big round number, probably just before

Australia July Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence 93.1 up from June’s 92.6 WPAC comments, in summary: optimism remained muted after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly held interest rates steady at 3.85% sentiment was stronger before the RBA decision but dipped afterward, reflecting lingering caution views on family finances improved longer-term economic confidence softened willingness to make major

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi has escalated his warning on the U.S. housing market, shifting from a “yellow flare” to a “red flare” as conditions continue to deteriorate under the weight of high mortgage rates. In a series of posts on social media platform Twitter, Zandi outlined how persistently elevated mortgage rates—hovering near 7%—are exerting

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan and the European Union plan to issue a joint statement aimed at deepening their economic partnership, with a particular focus on trade, advanced technology, and greater supply chain coordination, the Yomiuri newspaper reported. The move comes as both sides seek to enhance economic resilience amid rising global geopolitical tensions and disruptions. This article was

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has asked the central bank’s inspector general to conduct a fresh review of the Fed’s building renovation project, according to a letter sent to Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, Politico reported Monday. Powell said the inspector general already has full access to the project’s details and

UBS Wealth Management on the latest tariffs threat from Trump: Sees White House tariff escalation as a negotiation tactic; expects eventual de-escalation. Base case: U.S. effective tariff rate to settle near 15%, allowing S&P 500 to keep rising. Believes a U.S.-EU trade deal is likely before August 1, or the deadline will be extended. Acknowledges

Japanese government bond (JGB) investors are on edge ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections, fearing a political shake-up that could accelerate fiscal spending and drive super-long bond yields higher. Reuters with the piece, in brief: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s declining approval ratings have cast doubt on his coalition’s ability to retain a majority. A

UK retail sales rose sharply in June, driven by warmer weather and seasonal demand, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC): Total sales climbed 3.1% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in May while like-for-like sales rose 2.7% (+0.6% in May). The BRC credited the heatwave and events like Wimbledon for boosting demand for fans, summer clothing,

In Summary from the Wall Street Journal (gated): The European Union has completed a second list of potential counter-tariffs on U.S. goods valued at €72 billion (US$84 billion), amid rising trade tensions. The list, drafted by the European Commission, targets items such as Boeing aircraft, cars, bourbon, machinery, chemicals, plastics, medical devices, and various agricultural

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales June 2025. Card Spending Retail: +0.5% m/m prior –0.1% -0.4% y/y prior -0.1% Card Spending Total: -0.2% m/m prior +0.3% The electronic cards data covers about 68 percent of core retail sales in the country, and is the main measure of monthly retail activity. This article was written by

US futures have begun trading on Globex for the new week. The big weekend news was Trump’s tariffs: Trump hits the European Union (EU) with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1 Since then: Germanys Merz will work closely with Macron, von der Leyen to resolve trade ahead of Aug 1 EU extends pause on

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Via Reuters on Invesco Report: Key Trends Among Sovereign Wealth Funds and Central Banks. I trimmed it back to the main info. Active Management Rising: Large sovereign wealth funds are shifting from passive to active strategies due to market unpredictability. China Exposure Growing: Nearly 60% of wealth funds plan to boost investments in China over

Japan data, Core Machinery Orders for May 2025 +4.4% y/y expected +3.4%, prior +6.6% -0.6% m/m expected -1.4%, prior -9.1% These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Singapore Gross Domestic Product Q2 2025, preliminary +1.4% q/q expected +0.7%, prior -0.5% +4.3% y/y expected +3.5%, prior +3.9% more to come Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in Q2 according the trade ministry GDP data. avoiding a recession after the first quarter’s revised 0.5% contraction SGD pop: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Trump speaking, vague remarks about the European Union and South Korea in discussions with the US re trade. Over the weekend, ICYMI: Trump hits the European Union (EU) with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1 Then: Germanys Merz will work closely with Macron, von der Leyen to resolve trade ahead of Aug 1 EU

Elon Musk said Tesla will put the question of investing in his AI start-up xAI to a shareholder vote, following reports that SpaceX may commit $2 billion to the company behind the Grok chatbot. Responding to a question on social media about a potential Tesla investment, Musk clarified that the choice isn’t his to make:

more to comeNew Zealand’s services sector fifth consecutive month of contraction. BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for June was 47.3 3.2 points up from May below the average of 52.9 over the history of the survey BusinessNZ’s CEO, Katherine Rich: most of the sub-index results higher than the previous month sector has

China’s economy likely grew slightly above the government’s annual target in the second quarter according to the Bloomberg survey of analyst expectations. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: Bloomberg’s survey forecasting a 5.1% year-on-year GDP increase for the quarter ending in June Growth was supported by strong export performance, aided by a trade truce with

Trump hits the European Union (EU) and Mexico with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1, and more if they retaliate. Trump announced a new round of tariffs on his Truth social media app 30% blanket levy on all imports from both the European Union (EU) and Mexico, effective August 1 follows the breakdown of

Canada CPI – Tuesday, July 15 at 8:30am ET Canada’s inflation data will be closely watched, with headline CPI m/m expected at 0.2%, down from 0.6% previously. Both Median and Trimmed CPI y/y are forecast to remain steady at 3.0%, signaling a still-elevated but stable inflation environment. A softer print could strengthen the case for

Crude oil futures settled at $68.45, up $1.88 or 2.82% on the day. For the week, prices gained $2.13, marking a 3.2% increase. These gains come despite an unexpected rise in OPEC+ production of 548K barrels heading into the week. However, some support emerged midweek when OPEC+ floated the idea of pausing upcoming output hikes,

Major US stock indices are closing the day lower. For the trading week the declines today push the indices into negative territory. For the day: Dow industrial average fell -279.13 or -0.63% at 44371.51 S&P index fell -20.71 points or -0.33% at 6259.75. NASDAQ index fell -45.14 points or -0.22% at 20585.53. The small-cap Russell

MUFG is out with its trade of the week and highlights EUR/GBP, which is trading at 0.8650 at the moment. “We are recommending a long EUR/GBP trade idea to reflect our view that downside risks for the GBP are increasing. We have been encouraged by price action over the past week. EUR/GBP has held above

Over at Kalshi, where you could move this market with a couple thousand bucks, the odds of Powell resigning have risen to about 19% from 14% on this bizarre letter from William Pulte at the FHFA. In it, he cites ‘reports’ about Powell considering resigning but neither me nor anyone else can seem to find

This is strange statement as it indicates there are ‘reports’ that Powell is considering resigning. But there are no reports that I can find. Bizarrely, Pulte has been tweeting forever that Powell should resign and also foreshadowed this statement, even though it’s presumably based on ‘reports’. I’m not sure what to make of this but

MUFG notes that Q1 2025 COFER data revealed large reserve manager selling of the Japanese yen and Australian dollar, while Swiss franc holdings surged. Despite some caution on the euro, a recent OMFIF survey points to improving sentiment that could support EUR demand. Key Points: USD Holdings Steady: The global USD share of FX reserves

Prior was -316.0B Last June was -69B Outlays $499 billion Receipts $526 billion Customs duties $27 billion This is a pleasant surprise but comes after a huge deficit month. It’s always tough to draw trends from individual months because holidays and two-week pay periods shift around. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If we get a few more months of excellent inflation reports, that would persuade me we’re still on golden path Want to wait until the anxiety dies down before comfortable that US is back on track to a soft landing If we’re going to an environment where prices start rising again, I’ll be nervous New

Canada May employment change +83.1K vs 0.0K expected Canada building permits for May 12.0% versus -0.8% estimate Fed’s Goolsbee: Latest tariff threat could delay rate cuts US June federal budget budget +27 billion vs -11.0 billion expected Brazil’s Lula: If US tariffs take effect, we will reciprocate Trump says “we will see” on Canada tariff

Trump has hit Canada with a 35% tariff rate: up from the current two-tiered rate of 10% and 25% letter does not specify whether current exclusions for USMCA-compliant trade will be extended separate from sectoral levies may lower rate if Canada works with US on stopping fentanyl rate may move up ro down depending on

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). Still in contraction at 48.8 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining) up from 47.4 in May The long run average for the survey is 52.5. BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: manufacturers struggling to see expansion in

HSBC economists say that the European Central Bank is likely to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, even though the euro’s recent strength could push inflation below the ECB’s 2% target, citing: due to the delayed effects of monetary policy, the ECB may choose to overlook short-term currency fluctuations while the euro has risen sharply

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Discover a proven breakout trading system that has profited through bull and bear markets The post Breakout Trading Secrets: This Trading System Has Generated 5,176% Over The Last 30 Years appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Trump letter 35% tariff on Canada. CAD collapsing: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, at the dovish end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) spectrum, with not very dovish remarks, he is clearly in the ‘wait and see’ camp: Before April 2 Liberation Day tariffs the hard data on the economy was looking solid Since then there has been potential

The US inflation report, CPI, is due on Tuesday July 15 at 8.30 am US Eastern time, which is 1230 GMT. TD Securities are with the consensus, forecating m/m core to be up 0.3%, this highest since 0.4% in January: “we look for goods prices to gather steam in June, reflecting some tariff passthrough” “we

Trump tells NBC News about tariffs: “Not everybody has to get a letter. You know that. We’re just setting our tariffs,” “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%” Trump tells NBC News about tariffs that EU, Canada would receive letters notifying them of

The news: Trump letter 35% tariff on Canada. Trump has hit Canada very nard with a 35% tariff rate. Trump says will send tariff letters informing EU, Canada of the rates by Friday Trump’s letter to Canada – The Canada dollar has fallen sharply with Trump’s 35% tariff rate on the country The US dollar

Earlier: Trump letter 35% tariff on Canada. Trump has hit Canada very nard with a 35% tariff rate. Trump says will send tariff letters informing EU, Canada of the rates by Friday Trump’s letter to Canada – The Canada dollar has fallen sharply with Trump’s 35% tariff rate on the country The USD has jumped

Japan is seeking ministerial-level tariff talks with the U.S. ahead of the August 1 deadline for new 25% U.S. tariffs on Japanese imports. Tokyo hopes to arrange meetings between its chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during Bessent’s visit to Japan for the World Expo on July 19. Japan also aims

Trump hits Sri Lanka with a 30% tariff. The United States and Sri Lanka maintain a significant trade relationship, with total bilateral trade reaching approximately $3.4 billion in 2024. The U.S. imported about $3.0 billion worth of goods from Sri Lanka, while exporting $368.2 million to the island nation, resulting in a trade deficit of

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump “announcing a 50% TARIFF on Copper, effective August 1, 2025” after a national security assessment Trump wants the tariff to incentivise building a copper industry. Its going to be difficult for the US to just flick a switch and open copper mines and refining: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, prices

Japan June PPI +2.9% y/y expected +2.9%, prior +3.2% -0.2% m/m expected -0.2%, prior -0.2% AKA Corporate Goods Price Index. It’s a measure of Japanese wholesale prices. It shows the price companies charge each other for their goods and services. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced on Thursday a significant step forward in developing a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC), launching “Project Acacia” in collaboration with industry partners. The initiative will test 19 pilot programs using real money and assets for the first time, alongside five proof-of-concept trials involving simulated transactions. The trials

UBS has revised its USD/JPY Q3 forecast higher to 140 from 135, citing continued dollar resilience and a cautious Bank of Japan policy backdrop. The bank notes that a test of the 200-day moving average near 150 cannot be ruled out in the near term, particularly if U.S. Treasury yields remain firm. UBS also flags

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance June 2025 comes in at -7% expected -9%, prior –7% A tax hike on property transactions in April precipitated a downturn in the UK property market, not unexpectedly. The impact is diminishing. RICS mention: new buyer enquiries turned positive for first time since December agreed sales

Rabobank forecast EUR/USD to 1.2 in 12 months see a dip in the near term, 1 to 3 months warn that officials at the European Central Bank could increase talk to weigh on the euro says that the German economy is expected to remain soft in 2025, a stronger euro and higher US tariffs will

South Korea’s central bank held interest rates steady at its just concluded meet today. at 2.5% as expected Bank of Korea concerned about financial stability risks stemming from rising household debt and economic pressure from U.S. tariffs The Bank of Korea’s has a seven-member monetary policy board Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference

Physically backed gold ETFs attracted $38 billion in inflows during the first half of 2025—the biggest semi-annual increase since early 2020, according to the World Gold Council. The surge was driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid renewed geopolitical and economic uncertainty linked to Trump’s tariff-driven trade war. ETF holdings rose by 397.1 metric

What Trump just tweeted really makes no sense. We will be releasing a minimum of 7 Countries having to do with trade, tomorrow morning, with an additional number of Countries being released in the afternoon. Thank you for your attention to this matter! Releasing countries? What? Anyway, I translated it as releasing tariff info for

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s speech “What Has Australian Macroeconomic Thought Achieved in the Past Century – and Where Can it Contribute in the Next?” at the Australian Conference of Economists begins soon. That live link in the RBA tweet below leads nowhere. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Nissan has paused production of three vehicle models destined for Canada due to reciprocal auto tariffs between the U.S. and Canada, according to a report from Nikkei on Wednesday. The suspension, which started in May, impacts the Pathfinder and Murano SUVs built in Tennessee and the Frontier pickup trucks assembled in Mississippi. This article was

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is speaking: “What Has Australian Macroeconomic Thought Achieved in the Past Century – and Where Can it Contribute in the Next?” Topic is at the Australian Conference of Economists Hauser: RBA refreshing its research strategy, with new set of priorities RBA to expand research with external, academic

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser: Enormous amount of uncertainty in global economy Very surprising how markets are shrugging and moving on Effects of tariffs on global economy are profound, to drag on growth First round impacts of tariffs on Australia look minor Its still in the early days, but the worst trade

Report coming in: Citi expects official confirmation of a 50% rate by US on copper in weeks Citi expects implementation within 30 days Earlier: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, prices jump From that post: US needs imported copper and will need much more in order to build out the needed investments

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. has already collected around $100 billion in tariff revenue this year and could see that total surge to $300 billion by the end of 2025, driven by Trump’s escalating trade measures. speaking at a White House cabinet meeting noted that the bulk of new tariff income only began

Citi expects the United States to confirm a 50% copper import tariff under Section 232 within weeks implementation expected within 30 days bank revised its base case for the tariff, projecting the COMEX-LME arbitrage to price at 25-35% of London Metal Exchange levels, or $2,300-$3,300 per tonne, compared to its earlier forecast of 15-20%. “This

Goldman Sachs raises 3-, 6-, and 12-month S&P 500 return forecasts to +3% (6400), +6% (6600), and +11% (6900) Citing: expectations of earlier and deeper U.S. interest rate cuts continued fundamental strength of the largest stocks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says may adjust tariffs for some countries. Earlier: Trump says August 1 tariff deadline is firm, but he is open to other ideas So, August 1 is not firm This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says August 1 tariff deadline is firm, but he is open to other ideas. Trump also addressing other matters: we have scheduled Iran talks Iran will not be a nuclear state I hope we don’t have to do another strike on Iran ps. Netanyahu nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize This article was

Trump: “We are going to have to send more weapons to Ukraine. Defensive weapons. They have to defend themselves” Earlier on Trump’s comments expressed dissatisfaction with Putin: “I’m not happy with President Putin at all,” “If I can stop a war, you know, because I have an ability to do so…I’m disappointed, frankly, that President

A sustained recovery in the U.S. dollar remains unlikely for now, according to FX research at HSBC. for sentiment to shift meaningfully, the dollar would need to reassert its positive response to the U.S. yield advantage — both nominal and real — over other major currencies. however, that relationship has broken down in 2025, with

HSBC says large surplus after summer raises downside risk to its $65/B Brent forecast from 4Q 2025 now assume another 550kbd hike for September summer demand in Northern Hemisphere and in the Middle East (for power generation) is absorbing extra OPEC+ barrels for now This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

From last week: Goldman Sachs brings forward Fed rate cut forecast to September, from December Goldman Sachs moves its next Fed rate cut from December to September Goldman Sachs have pumped out more on this call. The firm expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates three months earlier than previously forecast, the shift

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

more to come Politico with the report, in brief: U.S. has offered the European Union a trade proposal that would apply a 10% baseline tariff on EU goods, while granting exceptions for certain sensitive sectors like aircraft and spirits, according to EU officials. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been in contact with U.S. officials

Japan PM Ishiba: Haven’t been able to reach agreement because Japan kept defending what needs to be defended Will continue dialogue with U.S., seek chance of agreeing on deal that benefits both countries As a result of past negotiations with U.S., we were able to avert hike in tariffs to 30–35% US has proposed to

Makhlouf said the euro cannot yet replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency Irish central bank chief and ECB governing council member Gabriel Makhlouf was speaking at a conference in France over the weekend. Makhlouf cited Europe’s unfinished economic and financial integration. said that while dollar dominance may decline over time, Europe

Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, held two rounds of intensive phone talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Thursday, then again on Saturday Ahead of the July 9 expiration of a pause on a potential 24% reciprocal tariff on Japanese imports. Trump has hinted the final rate could be even higher Despite ongoing efforts

Japan wages data, May 2025 real wages dropped 2.9% year-on-year in May, the sharpest fall in nearly two years, the fifth consecutive monthly decline in inflation-adjusted wages nominal wages rose 1.0% (expected +2.4%, prior +2.0%), the slowest pace since March 2024, the decline was largely due to an 18.7% drop in special (bonus) payments regular

Oil prices fell just over 1% at the Globex open on Sunday evening US time after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected increase in output for August, consolidating a strategic shift to regain market share The alliance of oil-producing nations said it would boost production by 548,000 barrels per day, a sharp rise from the previously planned

Prime Minister Mark Carney said a new oil pipeline to British Columbia’s coast is very likely to be designated a nationally significant project citing the scale of the economic opportunity and Canada’s resource strengths Carney was speaking from the Calgary Stampede in an interview with the Calgary Herald emphasised that such initiatives should come from

The Financial Times have the report: China reroutes exports via south-east Asia in bid to dodge Trump’s tariffs The FT is gated. It’s a detailed article, worth a read if you can access it. In (very) brief: Data suggests Chinese companies are increasingly diverting exports through Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs direct shipments from

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

On Monday China released a plan outlining 14 specific tasks to promote the quality and expansion of the country’s domestic service industry and help promote rural revitalization. I’m awaiting details on this, I haven’t seen any yet. The reports of the plan were announced on state broadcaster CCTV without any more info. This article was

Markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate on Tuesday Reuters poll: 31 of 37 economists expect cut to RBA cash rate by 25bp The statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia is due on July 8 at 2.30pm Sydney time: 0430 GMT 1230 US Eastern time As you can

The news from the weekend from OPEC+ meeting, raising oil output more than expected: OPEC+ to raise output by 548,000 bpd in August vs 411,000 bpd in July In effect, the decision returns nearly 80% of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts from eight OPEC producers back in the market actual output increase has been

OPEC+ will raise oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. This is faster than expected. OPEC+ had previously announced increases of 411,000 barrels per day for each month of May, June and July, and this was the increase expected to be announced at Saturday’s meeting. OPEC+ cited: steady global economic outlook current healthy

There’s basically nothing on the agenda today other than the Canadian Services PMI. The newsflow has been very limited and the price action in markets has been mostly rangebound. The NFP spikes have mostly been erased both in FX and US equity indices. The White House today is expected to begin sending letters to trade

Get some good rest with this long weekend because next week we have some important events that could potentially trigger big moves in the markets. The focus will be on Trump’s letters with the new tariff rates and the US CPI. I think the CPI will be more important given that Trump put August 1st

Composite PMI 44.0 vs 45.5 prior Key findings: Lack of new business weighs on activity Costs and selling prices rise at greater rates Confidence in outlook remains subdued Comment: Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Canada’s services economy remained deep inside contraction territory during June, as uncertainty caused in the main

Credit Agricole highlights that renewed political and fiscal risks are weighing heavily on the GBP, with echoes of the traumatic September 2022 gilt crisis continuing to shape investor sentiment. Uncertainty over UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ future and the Government’s fiscal credibility is keeping GBP vulnerable. Key Points: Fiscal Austerity and Policy U-Turns:• Investors remain concerned

India is proposing retaliatory duties at WTO against US tariffs on auto parts. They say 25% import tariff on vehicles and some auto parts by US amounts to safeguard measures. India reserves the right to suspend concessions and other obligations equivalent to the adverse effects of US measures on India’s trade. India reserves the right

Inflation expectations are well anchored. ECB must be more agile when using forward guidance. These are just token remarks and the ECB has been more inclined to give potential scenarios rather than clear forward guidance lately due to uncertainty. The market is fully pricing one last 25 bps cut, possibly in December unless another surge

Headlines: Traders pare back their dovish bets on the Fed after the positive NFP report Trump says countries have to start paying tariffs on 1 August More on Trump saying he’ll begin sending tariff letters on Friday China issues final ruling on EU brandy probe, to impose duties up to 34.9% OPEC+ meeting has been

Reuters reports that the OPEC+ meeting has been moved to Saturday 5th of July due to Ashura holiday. The group has been steadily adding back oil output since April and it’s expected to deliver another 411,000 output hike for August. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ Futures Technical Analysis – July 4, 2025 Published by InvestingLive.com, the upcoming evolution of ForexLive What is the current trend in NASDAQ futures? As the above Nasdaq Futures Technical Analysis video of today shows, as of July 4, 2025, NASDAQ futures are showing signs of a short-term pullback after a strong upward breakout. On

US stock market sentiment might feel frothy because it’s been a one-way TACO trade since Trump backed down on Liberation Day tariffs but most sentiment surveys weren’t overly frothy. That could be changing. The AAII survey — which is a solid one — rose in the latest week to 45% bullish from 35.1%. That’s a

India’s markets regulator bars US trading firm Jane Street from accessing the country’s securities market more to come Getting the details on this. It’ll be interesting hearing the reasoning. Algo-driven firms like this tend to not have too many fans … but they do provide liquidity and what have you to markets (yeah, most of

Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil forecast to US$72/bbl for 2025 projects $70 for 2026 forecast US oil demand to grow 130 kb/d this year, 100 kb/d ahead of their previous estimates say geopolitical tensions have eased as the U.S​.-​mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold add that the risk premium has

House leaders have designated the week of July 14 as “Crypto Week”, when three major cryptocurrency-related bills will be brought to a vote: the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate’s GENIUS Act. Republican lawmakers say the legislation will create a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, safeguard financial privacy, and bolster

USD/JPY is dribbling a little lower after the stunning beat for this data, both y/y and m/m: Japan data – May household spending +4.7% y/y (expected +1.2%, prior -0.1%) The yen move is tiny, of course, in comparison with the non farm payroll USD/JPY jump: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking in Berlin, addressed EU concerns over rare earth export controls: “Rare earths have not been, are not, and will not be a problem between China and Europe, or between China and Germany.” “If legal applications are submitted, Europe’s and Germany’s normal needs can be met.” China imposed new export

The US is on holiday on July 4 for the Independence Day holiday. Stock markets – most notably the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be closed Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed. Most FX desks will be closed, skeleton staff at

Japan data – May household spending comes in at a huge beat, +4.7% y/y, the fastest pace since August 2022 expected +1.2%, prior -0.1% +4.6% m/m, fastest since March 2021 expected +0.4%, prior -1.8% These are big beats, both m/m and y/y and will reignite speculation of nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hikes. Markets had

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reuters latest poll of expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia: 31 of 37 economists expect the Bank to cut its cash rate by 25bp next week, on July 8 six said no change and expected to cut cash rate to 3.10% by end-2025 is the median forecast (v/s 3.35% in May poll) A 25bp

Trump says administration working with Department of Homeland Security to help farmers on immigration Trump says administration will also work with the hotel industry Trump says he is willing to let migrants stay in country who are vouched for by the farmers they work for Trump is speaking in Iowa, one of the states very

Australia S&P Global June final services PMI at 51.8, a big jump from May and ahead of the flash reading: preliminary was 51.3, prior was 50.6 in May Composite 51.6, ditto: preliminary was 51.2, prior was 50.5 in May In summary from the report: Australia’s services sector gained momentum in June, with stronger demand driving

The U.S. has given Enterprise Products Partners the green light to restart ethane exports to China, the company announced on Wednesday, reversing a licensing restriction introduced only weeks earlier as trade tensions shifted from tariffs to supply chain controls. In late May and early June, the U.S. imposed new curbs on ethane and various other

New ETF offers U.S. investors exposure to Solana A new investment vehicle giving traditional investors access to Solana—a major cryptocurrency—began trading Wednesday on the Cboe BZX Exchange: REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF is the first US ETF to directly invest in Solana, the world’s sixth-largest crypto by market cap. The launch marks a step forward

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump’s latest yelling is: Powell should resign immediately Something to take note of is that Trump and some other members of the administration would have have gotten a preview of the US non farm payroll report around 4pm US Eastern time on Wednesday. This latest from Trump may be indicative of a poor report. Perhaps.

Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said the company will consider exporting its electric vehicles starting in 2027, reaffirming a timeline previously suggested. Lei noted that strong demand at home—particularly for its SU7 sedan and newly launched YU7 SUV—requires Xiaomi to prioritise the Chinese market in the near term. The SU7 has outperformed Tesla’s Model 3 in

A plane went down Wednesday afternoon in Monroe Township in Gloucester County near the Cross Keys Airport, officials said. No further details as yet Here we go, more: Numerous people injured says ABC media skydiving plane with 15 people onboard goes off runway after landing plane was dropping rapidly at a rate of 3,008 feet

As Trump and his advisers consider candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one key uncertainty looms: Powell may not leave the central bank next year. While Powell’s term as chair ends in May, he has yet to indicate whether he will fully step down or remain on the Fed’s board, where his term

Westpac have popped up a piece summarising three key themes that have emerged from the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra that concluded on Wedneday: Asia and the West have different responses to the trade shock The decline of US dollar dominance will be slow Reliance on the neutral rate offers diminishing returns On

Japan Jibun bank PMIs for June 2025, final. Services 51.7, a third consecutive month of growth preliminary 51.5, prior 51.0 More: business confidence improving to a four-month high new order growth accelerated slightly from May increase in new export business, generally attributed to tourist activities, decelerated to the slowest since December employment grew at the

Bessent was speaking in an interview with Fox: says ‘a little bewildering’ that tariffs wouldn’t push Fed towards a cut Asked if he thinks Powell will lower rates by fall, Bessent: I think they could do it sooner than then but certainly by September It’s a bit tough to figure out what Bessent is doing

Greg had the summary of the main points made by the heads of the Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan and Bank of Korea If you need an update of where these folks see their economies and policy this is a great summary: Comments from Central Bank Heads from the

OPEC+ meets on July 6, the cartel is expected to hike August output by 411,000 bpd. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says the decision will be made on the day: “We’ll review it during the meeting, as is traditional“ The group has been steadily adding back oil output since April: monthly increases of 411,000

Trump: Israel agrees to 60-day Gaza ceasefire proposal – via a post on his social media app. says Qataris, Egyptians will deliver final deal “Hope Hamas takes this deal” Gaza ceasefire deal “will not get better, only worse” Productive meetings with Israeli representatives confirmed Anything that relieves the suffering of the people in Gaza would

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that policymakers are likely to stay on hold for now, waiting for clearer signs on how Trump’s tariffs are affecting inflation. However, if the labour market starts to weaken, the Fed may consider lowering interest rates. Bank of America say: “Occam’s razor suggests that inflation is already

Median UK pay awards rose to 3.4% in the three months to May, up from 3.2%, driven partly by April’s minimum wage hike. Info via Reuters, citing a survey by Incomes Data Research: Private-sector pay deals hit 3.5%, with 19% of employers offering raises above 6%, up from 12% in April. Public-sector pay averaged 3.6%,

Iran prepped to mine Strait of Hormuz last month after Israeli strikes, but the mines were never deployed, according to U.S. officials. Reuters carry the story. In brief: A blockade would have disrupted global trade, with the strait carrying around 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments. U.S. hasn’t ruled out the possibility that

Justin had the update on Trump looking at susbidies to Tesla: Trump says maybe DOGE should take a “good, hard look” at Elon and the subsidies his companies are receiving Note also that the feud is getting very personal. Trump said he would look at having Elon Musk deported to his native South Africa: “We’ll

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The US dollar is under pressure as foreign investors show diminishing demand for dollar-denominated assets, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Using the bank’s ETF flow data: foreigners “are no longer buying enough dollar assets to finance America’s huge current account deficit.” DB highlights recent data showing the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) narrowed slightly

This is not just a yean story, the dollar has dipped almost across the baord also. Yen supported by the Bank of Japan Tankan : BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10) US dollar, meanwhile, ore of the same for it, it lost ground at its fastest first help pace in

BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Bank of Japan Tankan Survey – June 2025 Highlights Business Conditions (Actual vs Reuters Poll): Large Manufacturers (June): +13 (forecast: +10). +13 is the highest since December last year. Large Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +12 (forecast: +9) Large Non-Manufacturers (June): +34 (forecast: +34) +34 is the lowest since December last year Large

The Reuters Tankan Index provides a monthly snapshot assessing Japanese business sentiment ahead of the Bank of Japan’s quarterly report. For Q2 2025, the data shows: April 2025: Japanese manufacturers’ sentiment rebounded to +9 in April from -1 in March, marking the highest level since August 2024. This improvement was attributed to a temporary boost

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UK BRC Shop Price Index for June 2025 UK shop price inflation rose in June for the first time in nearly a year driven by a sharp 3.7% annual jump in food prices, the fastest pace since March 2024 British Retail Consortium attributed the rise to higher wholesale costs and increased labour expenses, especially for

Tesla has raised the price on Model 3 long range edition to 285,000 yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan final manufacturing PMI for June 2025 50.1 flash 50.4, prior 49.4 Japan’s manufacturing sector grew in June for the first time in 13 months: New orders fell for the 25th straight month, and export orders remained in a prolonged slump, with companies citing U.S. tariff uncertainty, especially in semiconductors and autos, as a key

Australian final June 2025 manufacturing PMI 50.6, down from the flash reading and down from May. Prelim is here: Australia preliminary June 2025 manufacturing PMI 51.0 (prior 51.0) Commentary from the report: “Australia’s Manufacturing PMI data showed that growth of the goods-producing sector moderated for a third consecutive month in June. While flash data initially

Going into the QSBO (data here) report BNZ were expected a cut at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on July 9, but it was not a strongly held biew: It is looking increasingly likely the RBNZ will stand pat when it delivers its July 9 Monetary Policy Review. Our formal view is for

BOJ official comments in the wake of the resilient Q2 Tankan (BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10)) Some automakers mentioned impact of U.S. trade policy, though others cited improvement in profits due to pass-through of costs No clear voices from firms citing impact of U.S. trade policy on capex plans

Bloomberg is gated, but in breif: NSW Treasury Corporation’s (TCorp) chief economist Brian Redican has called on the Reserve Bank of Australia to scrap its focus on hitting the 2.5% midpoint of its inflation target range the benchmark imposes unrealistic expectations on monetary policy creates unnecessary confusion in financial markets: inflation outcomes are more likely

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has hinted at the firm’s 11th straight week of Bitcoin purchases, continuing a buying streak that began on April 14. “In 21 years, you’ll wish you’d bought more,” Saylor posted on X to his 4.4 million followers Strategy’s latest purchase was on June 23, when it added 245 BTC for

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump has accused Japan of engaging in unfair trade practices in the automobile sector, calling for Tokyo to boost imports of U.S. energy and goods to help narrow the trade deficit. In a Fox News interview aired Sunday, Trump criticised the imbalance, noting that while the U.S. imports millions of Japanese vehicles, Japan takes few

Japan Industrial Production for May 2025, preliminary, +0.5% m/m for a huge miss expected +3.4%, prior -1.1% and -1.8% y/y prior +0.5% Industrial Production forecast 1 month ahead +0.3% m/m prior -3.4% 2 months ahead seen at -0.7% Data via Ministry of Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry US tariffs threat but hasn’t even hit

The Bank of Japan is placing increasing emphasis on “underlying inflation” to justify its cautious approach to further rate hikes, even as headline inflation sits well above target — a move that’s drawing criticism for clouding its policy message. core and headline consumer inflation in Japan remain above 2% BOJ points to a range of

Business confidence in the UK has climbed to its highest level in nine years: Lloyds Bank’s Business Barometer 51% in June, strongest since November 2015 prior 50 economic optimism up to a 10-month high hiring intentions surged, 60% of businesses now expect to increase staffing levels over the next year Lloyds economist: the figures indicate

US equity index futures are higher in Sunday evening, US time, Globex trade. Adding to record highs. EUR/USD is making a fresh high for the session here after opening higher and the filling the gap it left. Gold dipped early but is bouncing. The USD is generally softer across the board. Trump spoke on Sunday:

The theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking is Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses 30 June-2 July 2025 In Sintra, Portugal European Central Bank President Lagarde kicks off the speeches at 1730 GMT today, Monday, June 30, 2025. On Tuesday we’ll hear from a few more of the

New Zealand ANZ Business Survey for June 2025. Business Confidence prior 36.6 Activity Outlook prior 34.8 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mon: Japanese Industrial Output (May), Chinese Official PMIs (Jun), German Retail Sales (May), German/Italian Prelim CPI (Jun) Tue: Japanese Tankan (Q2), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Jun), German Unemployment (Jun), EZ HICP Flash (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US Challenger Layoffs (Jun),

Canada is set to move forward with a digital services tax, with the first payments due on Monday on revenues that stretch all the way back to 2022. That’s a material number and it comes after all the tech giants flanked Trump at his inauguration. I wonder if this isn’t all sorted out on the

These are complex talks Will proceed in the best interests of the country Tough to get a read on what he’s saying here but he’s not trying to inflame talks further. USD/CAD has recouped a big part of the move. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

So much for that. CAD down sharply. Trump’s message: We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our

It’s a lively day in US equity markets as strong buyers waded in early. It looked like the market would cruise to a record high close until Trump tweeted that he was ending trade talks with Canada. That led to a wave of tariff worries that erased more than 40 points in the S&P 500

Trump — evidently — is so offended that Iran’s supreme leader didn’t say ‘thank you’ to Trump and instead claimed he won the war that he’s “immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more”. Here is Trump’s post: Why would the so-called “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran,

Bessent indicates that the US dollar drop this year is normal variance. The US still has a strong dollar policy Currencies move up and down More fiscal spending in Europe tells you that the euro should appreciate I don’t think anyone is necessarily talking about a shadow Fed One spot on the Fed will open

The S&P 500 is up 45 points to a fresh record at 6185. It’s bee a great week for stock markets following the Iran-Israel war and the S&P 500 is up 3.6% WTD. The market isn’t rattled by Trump trade comments as it’s concluded that tariffs won’t be overly inflationary and that other countries aren’t

Trump is back to being tariff man. After a week of working on peace in the Middle East, Trump is pivoting again and away we go. The S&P 500 was on its way to a record close and a close above the prior record high of 6147 but it’s now given up around 40 poitns

Baker Hughes data: Oil rigs -6 to 432 Nat gas rigs -2 to 109 WTI crude oil is trading down 11 cents to $67.65. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump cancels trade talks with Canada Carney says he has not spoken with Trump today US May PCE core +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected Canada GDP for April -0.1% vs +0.0% expected US June final UMich consumer sentiment 60.7 vs 60.5 expected Trump: I’ve ended sanctions relief for Iran because the Ayatollah didn’t say thank-you

Discover what it takes to think in probabilities so that you can determine your edge in the markets The post How To Think in Probabilities appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Japanese Retail Sales for May 2025 + 2.2% y/y expected + 2.7%, prior +3.5% for the m/m, comes in at -0.2% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.7% in April more to come Earlier: Tokyo June 2025 headline CPI +3.1% y/y (3.3% expected) Japan May unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.5%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will be speaking Friday at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Annual General Meeting 1200 US Eastern time/1600 GMT Note, the BIS’ Annual Economic Report 2025 will be released on 29 June: will look at trade tensions, global economic challenges, the rise of non-banks and the future monetary system

Goldman Sachs says its scenario analysis suggests Brent at $90/bbl by year-end in case of an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz Says option markets see a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in 3 months and a 28% probability to exceed $70 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

French President Macron: in favour of a speedy and equitable EU-US trade agreement if the US 10% tariff stays, Europe will respond by imposing an equivalent levy on US firms This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The inflation data is here: Tokyo June 2025 headline CPI +3.1% y/y (3.3% expected) Jobs data: Jobless Rate 2.5%, unchanged from April expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.24 expected 1.26, prior 1.26 Its inflation data that is a focus in Japan, the unemployment rate is very low. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Tokyo CPI % y/y expected 3.4%, prior +3.4% CPI excluding fresh food 3.1% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.6% CPY excluding fresh food & energy +3.1% y/y, the highest since January 2024 expected 3.3%, prior 3.3% While core consumer inflation in Tokyo slowed in June, its still way above the Bank of Japan 2% target. Most

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari is participating in a town hall and Q&A at Montana Chamber of Commerce: inflation is above 2%, have to get it back to 2% we want to keep strong labour market we need to go slow until we know what’s happening with tariff-related inflation some of the

Positng this ICYMI: J.P. Morgan has raised its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 1,150 to 1,250, citing attractive valuations, a weaker U.S. dollar, and reduced uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. The firm maintains an ‘overweight’ stance on emerging markets. It noted that while trade tensions have dominated sentiment so far in

South Korea’s financial regulator: South Korea government holds emergency meeting on household debt South Korea govt strengthens measures to control household debt The back story on this is that South Korea has one of the highest household debt-to-income ratios among OECD countries. Households owe significantly more than their annual disposable income. mortgage loans are a

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term runs for another 11 months. The Journal (gated) says Trump is considering naming his successor soon. In brief: has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October, according to people familiar with the matter One of these people said the president’s ire toward

EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD all higher against the US dollar. The news that triggered the renewed bout of dollar selling is this: Wall Street Journal: Trump considers naming next Fed chair early – bid to undermine Powell The Journal’s take, which seems reasonable, is that Trump’s intention to name Powell’s replacement early

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish stance on Chinese equities, forecasting a more than 10% rally in the CSI 300 Index to 4,600 by year-end. Despite ongoing investor caution and a tepid first half, the bank expects a stronger performance in the second half of 2025, supported by policy easing, improving corporate earnings, and stabilising

Info here: Wall Street Journal: Trump considers naming next Fed chair early – bid to undermine Powell Wall Street Journal reports that Trump may accelerate naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Powell either this summer, September or October this might allow the chair-in-waiting to influence investor expectations ahead of the end of Powell’s term

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority acts as Hong Kong’s central bank. The HKMA is buying HKD to support the local currency. Its hit the upper extreme of its trading band (ie strong USD/weak HKD) – more on this below. I’ve posted on this before, ICYMI: Since 1983, the HKD has been pegged to the U.S.

Deutsche Bank has revised its rate call for the Reserve Bank of Australia, now forecasting a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming 8 July meeting. The bank had previously expected the first move in August but now sees cuts in both July and August, followed by a third 25bp reduction in November. The shift

Snippet from JPM on the US dollar: expects the index, DXY, to fall by 5.7% in the next 12 months citing US economic growth looking set to moderate, data showing signs of softening projects US growth to slow by more than other developed-market economies also to grow more slowly than most emerging-market economies sees growth-supportive

Nomura expects U.S. Treasuries to benefit from growing concerns over a potential economic slowdown, with yields likely to decline further if the labour market begins to soften meaningfully. In a note to clients, the bank said a resilient labour market would likely lead to only modest yield declines, but any signs of weakness could accelerate

0430 US Eastern time / 0830 GMT Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks at City UK conference on UK competitiveness 0645 US Eastern time/ 1045 GMT Andrea Rosen, Bank of England’s Head of Market Intelligence and Analysis at the CCBS “Transforming monetary policy” conference “From trading floors to policy calls: the value and evolution of our

The CNN report that pre-empted the other reports on “Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say” (I did a summary of this and other reports here earlier ICYMI: Classified report: Iran’s nuclear capabilities largely intact despite airstrikes) includes this instructive paragraph towards the end: The Israeli

Japan Services Producer Price Index (May 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan: more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Jeff Schmid is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Both jobs and inflation are near the Fed’s goals Central bank has time to study tariff effects on inflation before any rate decision Resilience of the economy means the Fed has time to wait and see what happens before

The summary of the Bank of Japan’s June policy meeting (headlines here from earlier) shows some members urged keeping rates steady due to uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy. Others argued that inflation was stronger than expected, with one suggesting the BOJ may need to raise rates “decisively” despite economic risks.

BOJ summary of opinions at June meeting: One member said: While much of the hard data for April and May has been relatively solid, it is likely that the effects of tariff policies are yet to materialize One member said while the impact of U.S. tariff policy will certainly exert downward pressure on firms’ sentiment,

Info comes via a Reuters report citing surveys by data firm Brightmine and recruitment platform Indeed Private sector pay deals mostly held at 3% in the three months to May, below 3.4% inflation. Nearly 15% of firms offered lower raises of 2.5%, reflecting employer caution. Job vacancies fell 5% from late March to mid-June and

Recapping Japan’s corporate service inflation data earlier, that rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, just below April’s revised 3.4%, according to BOJ data. The Bank of Japan is closely watching service-sector prices for signs that wage-driven inflation may become sustained. The services producer price index reflects what businesses charge each other for services and is a

Japan Services Producer Price Index (May 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan:. AKA Corporate Services Price Index +3.3% y/y (expected +3.1%, prior +3.1%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs’ Richard Chambers says the U.S. dollar may face further pressure as foreign investors increase currency hedging on U.S. assets. Rising hedge ratios and more FX-hedged Treasury purchases are expected amid market volatility. Chambers also sees European investors potentially reducing U.S. bond purchases in favour of local assets as fiscal spending rises, which could

Israel agreed to ceasefire so long as Iran does not launch further attacks; Iran has signalled to the US no further attacks will take place – White House official. Info via Reuters. Also: Trump called the ceasefire between Iran and Israel that he announced marked “a wonderful day for the world, in my opinion.” -NBC

This ahead of the ceasefire due at 0400 GMT (midnight US Eastern time), some media reports: Iran deflecting most intense strikes since June 13 Iran’s Nour News (linked to the Supreme National Security Council): “The scale of the explosions that occurred tonight in Tehran and Karaj is the largest in 12 days.” Heavy bombardments in

Amazon will invest £40 billion ($54 billion) in the UK over the next three years, marking a significant expansion in its third-largest market after the US and Germany. The investment, welcomed by the UK government as a boost to economic confidence, is set to create thousands of jobs. Plans include two major new fulfillment centres

The announcement from Trump of a ceasefire was very soon followed by officials in Iran denying it, and soon after by other officials confirming it. The denials are back: Iranian Fars News reports that an informed source has denied Trump’s ceasefire claim. Speaking to Fars News, the source stated that the ceasefire proposal announced by

Japanese media, Yomiuri, reporting on the dates – conveyed via Reuters Akazawa is arranging his seventh visit to the United States for as early as June 26 the first ministerial-level tariff negotiation since the Japan-U.S. summit held in Canada on June 16 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil has lost further ground with the news of the ceasefire: Trump announces Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” CNN reports that Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal News of Iranian confirmation of ceasefire agreement filtering in now – all good More ceasefire confirmation – Senior Iranian official confirms

Social media sources: Unconfirmed reports of an assassination attempt on a senior Iranian official Reports indicate a nuclear scientist has been assassinated in central Tehran Unconfirmed reports of multiple explosions at/near Camp Taji north of Baghdad in Iraq Wave of new Israeli airstrikes targeting Tehran’s 6th and 7th districts. This article was written by Eamonn

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Via Reuters: President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on Monday in a call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and with Trump’s team in contact with Iranian officials, a senior White House official said. The official, providing details of the ceasefire on condition of anonymity, said Israel agreed to the

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is an interesting read from Axios on how Trump suckered a lot of people. I posted on Friday not to get sucked in: “the phrasing doesn’t rule out an immediate move“ But Axios canvasses all those he did fool. Good read this. “It was a headfake”: Inside Trump’s secret orders to strike Iran The

Australia S&P Global June flash services PMI at 51.3 (vs 50.6 in May) Australia S&P Global June flash manufacturing PMI at 51.0 (vs 51.0 in May) Composite 51.2 (prior 50.5) Solid jump for the Services and Composite, steady for Manufacturing. A good results. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun bank PMI manufacturing June 2025 preliminary 50.4 (prior 49.4) services: 51.5 (prior 51.0) composite: 51.4 (prior 50.2) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters carry a few comments from analysts in response to the weekend developments re Trump’s strike on Iran. JP Morgan take a bit of a big pic view: cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over

I posted last week on 4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bbl Many of these warned of what could play out in the case of escalation. Over the weekend we did incrementally escalate: BREAKING: U.S. Successfully Struck Iran Nuclear Sites What’s Next after Iran Strikes? Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 16

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Goldman Sachs: Says while they still assume no significant disruptions to oil & natural gas supply, downside risks to energy supply & upside risk to its energy price forecasts have risen Says the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance that Iran will disrupt the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 Says if only Iran

This is worth checking out, reasoning why Iran won’t be able to close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not to say they won’t try, but it’ll be flash in the pan. Here is the link to the thread, if you’d like to read it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Korea says it’ll take market stabilising measures if volatility heightens excessively The fin min, meanwhile, says will be closely monitoring energy supply conditions fin min again – to take necessary measures if volatility is excessive in financial markets This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

RBC analysts warn against complacency in assessing risks to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that Iran retains significant retaliatory capabilities. “Iran has the ability to meaningfully retaliate by hitting individual tankers and ports,” they said, pushing back on the notion that disruptions hinge solely on a dramatic escalation. The situation, they argue,

MON: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jun). TUE: NBH Announcement, German Ifo (Jun), Canadian CPI (May), US Richmond Fed (Jun). WED: BoJ Summary of Opinions, CNB Announcement, PBoC MLF, Australian CPI (May). THU: Banxico Announcement, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jul), US Durable Goods (May), US GDP Final (Q1), US PCE Final (Q1). FRI: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jun),

Chart of the Day – Light Crude Oil Futures Analysis Crude Oil Price Chart, Daily timeframe | April–June 2025 Since mid-April 2024, light crude oil futures have respected a clear red resistance line—with key touchpoints in April 2024, January 2025, and most recently in mid-June 2025. The most recent test briefly pierced above resistance, a

Israeli strikes continue: Israel’s Air Force conducted another wave of attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear site at Isfahan, radar installations, and air defense batteries. Senior Iranian commanders killed: Israel confirmed the targeted killing of multiple Iranian commanders, including Bahnam Shahriari, head of weapon transfers to Hezbollah, and Amin Pour-Joudaki, commander of Iran’s drone force. Saeed Izadi,