Prior month import prices 0.1% US import prices Y/Y 2.2% vs 1.3% prior US export prices M/M 0.3% vs 0.2% expected and 0.0% prior US export prices Y/Y 1.8% vs 0.8% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is posting a slight double-top from the overnight high around 0.6245 and that is leading to a reversal in the past few hours. The fall now threatens a break below its 200-hour moving average (blue line). And in doing so, that will see the near-term bias switch back to being more neutral again.

Prior month 0.1% Business inventories for November 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate Sales: Combined distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November were $1,893.1 billion, up 0.5% (±0.2%) from October 2024 and 2.5% (±0.4%) from November 2023. Inventories/Sales Ratio: The inventories/sales ratio for November was 1.37, unchanged from November 2023. This article was written by Greg

European Central Bank governing council member and Portugal central bank governor Mario Centeno: says interest rate will continue on a trajectory ideally towards values close to 2% Not sure where he is speaking, info via Reuters. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar keeps more mixed on the session thus far AUD/USD erases post-CPI advance as sellers wrestle back some near-term control What are the main events for today? Germany December final CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/ prelim Italy December final CPI +1.3% vs +1.4% y/y prelim UK November monthly GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected

Japan Producer Prices, December 2024 +0.3% m/m expected +0.4%, prior 0.3% 3.8% y/y expected 3.8%, prior 3.7% — USD/JPY has dribbled off a few tics. The data is not unsupportive of a rate hike from the BoJ next week (January 23 and 24 meeting). Earlier: ICYMI: Nomura are now forecasting a Bank of Japan (BoJ)

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to rely on the same factors from yesterday with a keen focus towards US data once again. Coming up later today, we will have the retail sales data and weekly jobless claims to work with. That will

German DAX futures flat French CAC 40 futures +0.5% UK FTSE futures +0.3% This comes with US futures also marked higher after the gains yesterday. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with Nasdaq futures up 0.3% currently. The S&P 500 index itself was called into question on Monday but dip buyers looked to have survived

Prior month 0.7% revised to 0.8% Retail sales headline 0.4% versus 0.6% estimate Control group 0.7% vs 0.4% estimate. Prior month 0.4% Core retail sales ex auto 0.4% vs 0.5% estimate. Last month 0.2% Ex auto and gas 0.3% vs 0.2% last month. More details from the Census Total sales in December 2024 were $729.2

US retail sales will be released with the initial jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing at the bottom of the hour. Retail sales are expected to show a 0.6% gain vs 0.7% last month. The core is expected at 0.5% vs 0.2 % last month. Initial jobless claims are expected at 210K vs 201K last

Fundamental Overview Gold is slowly edging towards the key 2721 resistance as the softer than expected US inflation data this week gave the necessary support to push into new highs. Following the slightly lower than expected US Core CPI yesterday, we saw a big fall in real yields which should support gold for further upside

Prior month 46 NAHB housing market index 47 versus 45 estimate Robert Diaz, Chief economist said: “While ongoing, but slower easing from the Federal Reserve should help financing for private builders currently squeezed out of some local markets, builders report cancellations are climbing as a direct result of mortgage rates rising back up near 7%.”

TradeCompass for Nasdaq Futures (NQ, March 2025 Contract) – January 16, 2025 Current Context: Current Price: 21,4492 (1 minute before the market opens). Activation Level: 21,640 This TradeCompass becomes active only if NQ reaches 21,640. Below this level, no directional bias is established. Defined Range: Bullish Threshold: 21,681 Above this level, the bias turns bullish.

Members were increasingly confident that inflation would return to target in 1H 2025 A gradual dialing back of policy restrictiveness would be appropriate if baseline projection for inflation is confirmed over the next few months and quarters There are still many upside and downside risks to inflation outlook, so should not let its guard down

For oil traders, keeping track of the ebbs and flows on this ceasefire is important. It looks like some back tracking going on, which should be a tailwind for oil, at the margin. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Hamas opposed a clause that would allow Israel to block the release of certain Palestinian prisoners,

Bank of Korea leaves rate unchanged at 3% vs. cut to 2.75% expected more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been rallying steadily this week thanks to positive news both on the tariffs and inflation front. On Monday, we got a news from Bloomberg that the Trump’s team was studying gradual tariffs hikes. On Tuesday, we got a very soft US PPI report and yesterday lower than expected US

TradeCompass: Canadian Dollar Futures (6C, March 2025 Contract) – 16 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Canadian Dollar Futures (6C, March 2025) Price at the Time of Analysis: 0.69740 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Canadian Dollar Futures Today Bullish Above: 0.69935 Why Bullish Above:A move above 0.69935 would place the price above yesterday’s Point of Control

Prior month -16.4 Manufacturing index for the month of December 44.3 vs -5.2 estimate. The highest level since April 2021 Details: The diffusion index for current general activity rose from -10.9 in December to 44.3 in January, the highest since April 2021, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2020. 51% of firms reported increased

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The main concern here is that core annual inflation crept higher to 3.3% in December, up from 3.0% in November. That raises stagflation worries for the German economy at the turn of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda BOJ would raise the policy rate this year if economic and price conditions continue to improve. He also noted that the approach to monetary policy adjustments will depend on prevailing economic, price, and financial conditions at the time. Ueda highlighted that the policy outlook of the new U.S. administration and

The retail sales control group (feeds into GDP) and Philly Fed Manufacturing index were stronger than expected and that helped to push the EURUSD and the GBPUSD lower (higher USD) but only modestly.The US initial jobless claims saw rebounded higher but remains close to the lower end of the recent range. The EURUSD moved down

Initial Jobless Claims 217K vs 210K expected and 201K prior (revised to 203K) Continuing Claims 1859M vs 1.871M expected and 1.867M prior (revised to 1.877M) The labour market remains in good shape based on weekly claims data which has been a great barometer for the past two years. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

Info via Reuters citing an unnamed source: Canada could impose countermeasures on up to C$150 billion worth of imports from the U.S. if the Trump administration imposes tariffs on Canadian imports. It won’t necessarily impose the countermeasures; it would carry out public consultations first. Proposed Canadian countermeasures would be divided into three groups; Florida orange

The major stock indices cheered on the combined PPI and CPI data with sharp gains in the major indices. The NASDAQ index snapped its five day losing streak (-4.13%). The gain today retraced over half of that decline and had its best day since November 6 (post election day). The S&P index also had its

The Australian labour market has been resilient and growth in jobs is expected in the December data due today. I’ll have more to come on this separately. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’

TradeCompass for AUD Futures Analysis (6A, March 2025 Contract) – January 17, 2025 Current Context: Current Price: 0.6213 Bullish Threshold: 0.62370 This level is just above today’s highest VWAP point and slightly above the 1st upper standard deviation of yesterday’s VWAP. Bearish Threshold: 0.62175 The price is currently trading just below this level, confirming a

Below is a summary of the Overall activity and by district. A key and oft repeated word is “slight” or “moderate”. Not to hot. Not to cold. There were 23 mentions of tariffs and 9 mentions of immigration. Overall Economic Activity: Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late

Earlier: Bank of Korea leaves rate unchanged at 3% vs. cut to 2.75% expected BOK plans to expand the cap on temporary special loans for small and medium businesses Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong press conference no: decision was not unanimous need for further rate cuts is higher now that the downside risk to

Prior €6.8 billion Here’s the breakdown of the non-seasonally adjusted trade data: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is reported that Chinese officials are trying to pave the way for local automakers to purchase German factories that are slated for closure. In particular, they are rather interested in Volkswagen’s sites and another source said that the German automaker would be open to selling its Osnabrück factory to a Chinese buyer. The move

1745 GMT/1245 Eastern time Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle Will speak on the Bank’s balance sheet normalization process and how it will manage its balance sheet once normalization ends *** The Bank of Canada began cutting rates in 2024, beginning in June. Read from the bottom up for the progression of cuts December

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been rallying steadily this week thanks to positive news both on the tariffs and inflation front. On Monday, we got a news from Bloomberg that the Trump’s team was studying gradual tariffs hikes. On Tuesday, we got a very soft US PPI report and yesterday lower than expected US

The European session is going to be pretty empty on the data front with no market moving releases. The main events will be all in the American session when we will get a few US economic indicators and Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing before Senate at 15:30 GMT/10:30 ET. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US Jobless Claims

Via Rabobanbk analyst Foley on the Australian dollar, in brief. AUD could weaken a little in the months ahead, Rabo says the risk is AUD/USD dropping to 0.60 by the the middle of this year. Citing: a firm US dollar headwinds due to China’s economy Also notes potentially rising political uncertainty ahead of Australia’s federal

A Reuters poll shows that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise the key interest rate to 0.50% by the end of March, with 59 out of 61 economists in agreement. nearly two-thirds of 32 economists believe the BOJ will hike interest rates on January 24 with the remainder expecting a hike later Two-thirds

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board yesterday following the softer than expected US Core CPI data as Treasury yields fell aggressively in what could be the peak in inflation hysteria and repricing in rate cuts expectations. Strangely enough, the US Dollar eventually erased all the losses and ended the day pretty much flat

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The latest employment report just published in Australia: Australia December 2024 unemployment rate 4.0% (vs. 4.0% expected) continued to show a resilient and tight labour market. Interest rate trading is now pricing around a 75% chance of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on February 18. All eyes will be on

Nomura assessed Ueda’s comments from Wednesday as being enough to shift their forecast for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike from March to January. The BoJ meet on January 23 and 24. Nomura also shifted its forecast for the following BoJ rate hike to July, from ocot previously. ICYMI, Ueda’s comments sent the yen

The dollar is keeping steadier and a little firmer against the major currencies bloc but only with one exception again. And that is against the Japanese yen. Falling Treasury yields in response to the US CPI report yesterday drove USD/JPY lower but also as traders look to be stepping up expectations for a BOJ rate

UBS forecast USD/CNY to reach 7.5 by June this year: while growth is expected to accelerate in China, effective tariff rates could rise dramatically and be a headwind CNY has only partially priced in this On the other side, UBS see continued US dollar strength. US activity likely to stay robust, economic data is likely

This anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe is at the request of China’s mature node chip industry. It’s a slight retaliation against the recent measures by the US in trying to further curb China’s access to chips here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass: Russell 2000 Index Futures Analysis – 16 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Russell 2000 Index Futures (RUT Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 2279.3 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Russell 2000 Futures Today Bullish Above: 2291.3 Why Bullish Above:If Russell 2000 Futures rise above 2291.3, the price will surpass yesterday’s Value Area High

Earlier: ICYMI: Nomura are now forecasting a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike next week The prospect of the BoJ hiking next week (meeting is on the 23rd and 24th) is the hot topic supporting the JPY. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.3% HICP +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y prelim Prior +1.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation did ease further as well, down to 1.8% from 1.9% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The CPI data from the US: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 15 Jan: US CPI does not scare market.Yields down.Stocks up Goldman Sachs analysts, in response, suggested that the cooler-than-anticipated core CPI figures may alleviate concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Although this report alone is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a

TradeCompass: Euro FX Futures Analysis – 15 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Euro FX Futures (EUR/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 1.0318 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Euro FX Futures Today Bullish Above: 1.03455 Why Bullish Above:If Euro FX Futures rise above 1.03455, the price will surpass yesterday’s highest VWAP and break above

Hope spring eternal that the proposed end to the war in Israel lasts. Tens of thousands of deaths is a harsh price to pay. With that backdrop, Ukraines President Zelinskiy is on the wires saying that he sees a higher likelihoop for the war to end in 2025. What might be the catalyst for it,

The ECB remains on track to cut further. I don;t expect either of these two to dispute that. 0900 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time Christodoulos Patsalides, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, speaks at a banking and fintech conference in Nicosia

Eurostoxx +1.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +1.5% UK FTSE +0.6% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% As the DAX opens at a fresh record high, the CAC 40 is also at its highest since the end of October. After finding a double bottom near 7,100, the French benchmark index looks poised for

Bloomberg with the report. Says the Bank of Japan likely to hike rates at next weeks meeting (23 and 24 January), unless there is a ‘major rout in markets’ following Trump’s swearing in. Bloomberg cite several, all unnamed, sources. USD/JPY is down on the day already. Circa 155.60 as I post after lows around 155.23.

Him Just two days ago, the price of bitcoin was moving sharply to the downside. The price fell below the $90,000 level reaching a low of $89,164, but just as fast, the price rotated back to the upside closing at $94,505. Yesterday the price continue to move higher closing the day at $96,523 and today

Reuters Japan Corporate Survey: A third of Japanese companies see the labour shortfall worsening, and 4% believe the shortage is easing. Two-thirds of Japanese companies face severe impact from the labour shortage. A majority of Japanese companies see capital expenditure and wage hikes as this year’s priority investment areas The Reuters survey highlights that two-thirds

NASDAQ snaps five-day losing streak with its best day since November 6 Crude oil extends to its highest level since July 19. Price is testing a key swing area Bitcoin is back above 100K. It was just Monday that the price moved below $90K With one war over, Ukraine’s Pres. Zelinskiy sees higher likelihood for

From Scott Bessent’s expected remarks to the US Senate Finance Committee Hearing to Consider his nomination to be Secretary of the Treasury: We must secure supply chains that are vulnerable to strategic competitors, and we must carefully deploy sanctions as part of a whole-of-government approach to address our national security requirements, And critically, we must

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor spoke on inflation dynamics and the economic outlook at Leeds University on Wednesday. Taylor called for more rate hikes, and suggested a need for urgency. Taylor noted that inflation risks seemed to be subsiding, but the likelihood of a downturn in Britain’s economy

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report: Hindenburg Research founder Nate Anderson cites job stress as he shuts down his firm Check out that link if you can access the Journal for the full report. I think this was the crux of his stress (bolding mine): Hindenburg … not only placed their bets against

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey Over the past six months or so, the survey has generally reflected ongoing concerns about price pressures. While the month-to-month figures have shown some variability, the overall trend suggests that consumers remain wary of sustained inflation levels, particularly in light of rising costs for essential goods and services. In several

New Zealand Food Price Index for December 2024 is +0.1% prior was -0.1% NZD/USD is barely changed. The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealand the FPI tracks the prices of

The price of WTI crude oil is up $3.05 at $80.55. The high price today reached $80.73. The low was at $77.26 settle price was at $80.04. Buying has continued after the settlement. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price highs has entered into a swing area between $80.17 and $80.57. The price is testing

The USDCHF broke lower after the US CPI data. Although yields moved lower in the US and remain down, they also moved lower in Europe. The dynamic saw the technicals switch from being more dollar bearish to more dollars bullish. Looking at the USDCHF, the price fell below its 200-hour moving average (green line on

More comments from near Fed Pres. Williams (voting member): Doesn’t see higher yields reflecting a big inflation view shift. Is not surprised bond yields have risen. Term premia factors are a big part of rising bond yields. No prediction on when balance sheet contraction will stop. Financial sector reserves still look abundant. Fed has no

The major European indices enjoyed a solid day to the upside with the German DAX leading the way. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +1.70% France’s CAC +0.69% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.21% Spain’s Ibex, +1.25% Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.49% Yields moved lower in Europe as well today: Germany, 2.536%, -9.4 basis points

Fed Barkin is speaking and says: Inflation is coming down towards the 2% target. Can see paths where inflation is sticky or continues to progress towards target. Was encouraged by the unemployment rate in December. Seems the job market has stabilized. Not much to support arguments that the economy is growing weaker. Not concerned about

Prior month +2.1% Canada manufacturing 0.8% versus 0.5% estimate Wholesale trade for November -0.2% versus -0.7% estimate. Prior month 1.0 percent Sales were higher sales in 13 of 21 subsectors Other details: Aerospace Products & Parts: Sales increased 9.3%, driving the overall gain. Highest level on record Petroleum & Coal Products: Sales rose 2.6%. Motor

Reuters poll shows: 77 of 77 economists at AEC cutting rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% 48 of 77 see ECB cutting deposit rated 2.0% by the end of June. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The PPI data for December came in lower than expected: US PPI final demand for December 0.2% versus 0.3% estimate. YoY 3.3 % vs 3.4% est Good news? Yes … but there is a but. The components that feed into core PCE (PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – more on this

Prior was +0.2 Business activity declined in New York State in January, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell fifteen points to -12.6. New orders fell modestly, and shipments were little changed. Delivery times were slightly longer, and supply availability was unchanged. Inventories grew slightly.

Crude oil drawdown of -1.962M versus -0.992 million drawdown estimate Distillates build 3.077M versus 0.75 million build estimate gasoline build 5.852M versus 2.034 million build estimate Refining utilization -1.6% versus estimate of -0.9%. Previous +0.6% Weekly crude production 13.481 million barrels versus 13.563 million barrels previously The private inventory data released late yesterday showed This

For what it is worth. Pres. Elect Trump is weighing in on the Israeli/Gaza situation We have a deal for hostages in the Middle East. They will be releases shortly. There has been mixed report with a deal is done, to no deal yet, to agreement reached. Israel-Hamas deal elements six week initial cease-fire phrase

Prior +2.6% CPI +0.3% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior +0.1% Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.5% Core CPI +0.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected Prior 0.0% As the BOE looks to cut rates further, this will at least support the case for that. The inflation numbers were softer than expected with core annual

The major US stock indices are liking the earnings from some major financials as well as the CPI data. The combination of the CPI and PPI has number crunchers thinking the core PCE will be just below the 0.2% level at 0.19% when it is released later this month. The three and six-month averages of

Prior +1.3% HICP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelim Prior +1.7% No change to the preliminary estimates but the good news is that core annual inflation did ease to 1.3% on the month, down from 1.5% in November. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsby is speaking and says: I still see continued progress on inflation For the last six months PCE inflation has run close to 2% target. Optimistic for 2025 on a soft landing. A lot of uncertainties remain. Uptick in business confidence, uncertainty, since the election. CPI report is somewhat encouraging, somewhat discouraging,

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will raise rates and adjust degree of monetary support if improvement in economy and price conditions continues will make a decision next week watching developments in the US economy momentum heading into spring wage negotiations is crucial That second point – the Boj meet on 23 and 24 January USD/JPY

Morgan Stanley number crunchers are out with their estimate for core PCE. they see it at 0.16% MoM. For the headline PCE figure they see it at 0.26%. In other bank comments today: Wells Fargo expects Fed to deliver two 25 basis point cuts this year in September and December Citgoroup CFO says consumer has

The German stats office confirms the number, which matches up with analyst estimations. This follows a contraction of 0.1% in Q4 last year. Stagflation. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Although yields remain near their lows for the day, the EUR/USD has erased all its earlier gains, with the pair recently reaching a low of 1.02867—just above the intraday low of 1.02858. The pair had spiked higher following the CPI data, targeting the swing area between 1.0332 and 1.0343, as well as the 38.2% retracement

Expects BOJ to conduct monetary policy appropriately It is up to BOJ to decide on monetary policy Believes that BOJ is doing its part in playing its role in accordance with the government The government has been trying to prioritise wage growth in order to faciliate the BOJ to do their job. And the remarks

Geopolitics: Israel official says Hamas has given green light to Gaza deal. From news source: It seems that the signing of the cease-fire agreement in Gaza will be tonight and the announcement tomorrow Let’s hope that peace remains. WAIT: Israel PM “Contrary to reports, Hamas has not yet responded to the deal”. This article was

The CPI data is released well before these speakers begin: US December CPI data due Wednesday, ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know) Goldman Sachs headline and core US December CPI forecasts Kashkari, Williams and Goolsbee look most likely to have comments of relevance for traders. The times below are GMT/US Eastern time

NY Fed Pres. Williams is the next speaker and he says: Monetary policy is data-dependent in a highly uncertain environment. Government policy outlook is the main source of uncertainty. Monetary policy is “well-positioned” for the economic outlook. Disinflation process to continue but could be choppy. Improvement in supply/demand balance allowed rate cuts. Balance sheet drawdown

The USDCAD has been trading mostly between 1.4334 and 1.4466. Yes there were two breaks lower last week which failed, but most of the price action has been within that area. In trading today another break to the downside occurred after the CPI data. That sent the price down to allow near 1.4302. That level

The US CPI data was more or less as expected, but the market is taking a more dovish view (I don’t really see greatness in the data, but the market is cheering). Earnings from financialalso came in better which is helping the stock market. Yields are down sharply which is also a big driver. The

TradeCompass: S&P 500 E-mini Futures Analysis – 14 January 2025 Financial Instrument: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 5882 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for S&P 500 Futures Today Bullish Above: 5891 Why Bullish Above:A move above 5891 places the price above yesterday’s Point of Control (POC), signaling a

A Reuters poll of 65 economists shows: BOE to cut rates by 25 basis points in February total reductions of 100 basis points in 2025. More likely 2025 UK inflation comes in higher than expected rather than lower. UK inflation to average 2.5% in 2025, 2.1% in 2026 (same as December poll) This article was

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a strong performance across several sectors, with notable gains in technology, consumer cyclical, and automotive sectors. 📈 Technology: Major players like Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) have witnessed gains of 0.81% and 1.49% respectively. This uptick comes as investors rally around tech giants with a solid outlook for

European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane economy is still recovering expects investment to pick up this year eurozone economic growth 1.1% in 2024, expects a firmer economic recovery in 2025 it takes time for monetary easing to impact and take effect savings rate in eurozone to decline, though not dramatically expects strong employment and wage

Prior month 0.3% CPI MoM 0.4% versus 0.3% estimate CPI YoY 2.9% vs 2.9% estimate CPI Core 0.2% vs 0.2% estimate. up 0.225% unrounded. CPI COre YoY 3.2% vs 3.3% estimate. Real weekly earnings -0.1% versus 0.1% last month (revised from 0.3%) Summarized from the BLS: CPI Increase (Monthly): CPI-U rose 0.4% in December, up

The number crunchers are at it after the CPI and PPi data this week. GIven the figures, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the core PCE deflator (the favored measure of inflation for the Fed) at 0.19% – jut under 0.2%. Of course to get to 2.0% the average MoM needs to be 0.166%, but close enough. Looking

Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari is speaking and said: Tariffs themselves don’t cause inflation, but tit-for-tat retaliation is more complicated This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass: Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Analysis – 15 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Price at the Time of Analysis: $131.50 (premarket session) Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Nvidia Stock Today Bullish Above: $132.89 Why Bullish Above:If Nvidia stock rises above $132.89, the price will clear yesterday’s Point of Control (POC) and VWAP, as

Yesterday was the US PPI. It came in weaker than expectations but showed numbers still higher than the Fed’s target for inflation at 2%. The US CPI is next (will be released at 8:30 AM ET). Below are the estimates. CPI MoM is expected to show a 0.3% gain vs 0.3% last month. CPI YoY

December itself saw 3.49 million visitors to Japan, making it a new monthly record as well. And in total for the year 2024, Japan saw roughly 36.9 million visitors for business and leisure. That well exceeds the previous annual record set in 2019 of 31.9 million, before the Covid pandemic struck. Personally, Japan is one

Prior 0.0% Euro area industrial production grew slightly in November with the breakdown showing increases in the production for intermediate goods (+0.5%), energy (+1.1%), capital goods (+0.5%), durable consumer goods (+1.5%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path If incoming data confirms our baseline, we can expect further rate cuts But high level of uncertainty calls for prudence in terms of rate-setting The balance of risks has shifted from concerns about high inflation to concerns

Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1330 GMT): For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US December CPI data due Wednesday, ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know) Distribution of forecasts for the US CPI report

Headlines: UK December CPI +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y expected Traders step up odds of BOE rate cut for next month US inflation data to take center stage today What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? ECB’s de Guindos: The disinflation process is well on track ECB’s Villeroy: We have practically won the

More from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda – lots of positive talk about wage hikes European Central Bank speeches today from de Guindos, Villeroy, Vujcic Nasdaq Futures Analysis for Today BoJ Gov Ueda says will raise rates if improvement in economy & price conditions continues S&P 500 Futures Analysis for Today TikTok making plans to

Fundamental Overview The USD is weaker across the board following the soft US PPI report yesterday. The market pricing is now showing a total of 31 bps of easing by year end compared to 24 bps before the PPI. The focus remains on the US CPI report today. A hot report will likely cause some

Taylor’s looks to be the most interesting for traders: 1600 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time Bank of England Executive Director, Financial Stability Strategy and Risk, Nathanael Benjamin will give speech at TheCityUK ‘The future of stress testing’ 1630 GMT / 1130 US Eastern time Bank of England External member of the Monetary Policy Committee

Yesterday we had Bank of Japan deputy governor Himino speaking: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD swing on news, JPY swing on … not a lot Forexlive European FX news wrap: Awaiting the US PPI report In my Asia wrap (first link above) I said I wondered aloud at the strange (up) response on Himino’s

Manufacturers sentiment index +2 in January -1 in December Index for non-manufacturers’ mood to +31 was +30 in December Both manufacturers, non-manufacturers see no change in April *** Japanese manufacturers’ sentiment improved in January, rising to +2 from December’s -1, driven by stronger conditions in materials industries like steel, oil, and chemicals. However, their outlook

Fundamental Overview The USD is weaker across the board following the soft US PPI report yesterday. The market pricing is now showing a total of 31 bps of easing by year end compared to 24 bps before the PPI. The focus remains on the US CPI report today. A hot report will likely cause some

Prior -3.7% Market index 224.4 vs 168.4 prior Purchase index 162.0 vs 127.7 prior Refinance index 575.6 vs 401.1 prior 30-year mortgage rate 7.09% vs 6.99% prior After the holiday down time, US mortgage applications picked back up strongly in the past week amid a resurgence in both purchases and refinancing activity. That despite the

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.4% US stocks faced some late pressures yesterday but again, it was mostly on tech shares. US futures are steadier today, so that is helping with the mood a little currently. S&P 500 futures are seen marginally higher by 0.1%. The key risk event though will be the

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 mark. That could keep price action in a tighter cage in the session ahead, weaving in and around the figure level for the most part. That especially with broader markets also eyeing the US CPI report

META Stock Short Trade Plan and Analysis: January 15, 2025 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. All trades involve risk, and traders should assess their risk tolerance before proceeding. All trades are at your own risk. META Stock Trade Idea and Price Prediction Are you looking for a META stock trade idea? This

2024 world oil demand expected to have risen by 1.5 mil bpd (previous forecast 1.61 mil bpd) 2025 world oil demand growth forecast for 1.45 mil bpd 2026 world oil demand growth forecast for 1.43 mil bpd The 2026 forecast is the first one they are sharing as we are now into January 2025. And

TradeCompass: Euro FX Futures Analysis – 15 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Euro FX Futures (EUR/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 1.0317 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Euro FX Futures Today Bullish Above: 1.03435 Why Bullish Above:If Euro FX Futures rise above 1.03435, the price will break above the Value Area High (VAH)

Fundamental Overview The USD is weaker across the board following the soft US PPI report yesterday. The market pricing is now showing a total of 31 bps of easing by year end compared to 24 bps before the PPI. The focus remains on the US CPI report today. A hot report will likely cause some

The price of crude oil settled today and $77.50. That was down -$1.32 or -1.67% on the day. The fall snapped it three day streak of gains that saw some the price move up from a low of $72.84 to a high price yesterday of $79.27. The high price today reached $79.09, while the low

After a hot US jobs report last week, inflation data is starting to come back into stronger focus again upon the turn of the year. For one, the disinflation process is starting to slow down. Then, we have the prospect of Trump’s tariffs and tax policies to consider. All of that running against a backdrop

Fundamental Overview The USD is weaker across the board following the soft US PPI report yesterday. The market pricing is now showing a total of 31 bps of easing by year end compared to 24 bps before the PPI. The focus remains on the US CPI report today. A hot report will likely cause some

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.0 mn barrels Distillates +0.8 mn bbls Gasoline -2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

UBS Global Wealth Management forecasts for the euro against the US dollar: 1.00 by March 2025 1.02 in June 1.06 in December Says it’ll be a year of two halves for the big dollar: H1 strength partial or full reversal in H2 currently the USD is in ‘strongly over valued territory I marked off those

TradeCompass: Boeing (BA) Stock Analysis – 15 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Boeing Stock (BA) Price at the Time of Analysis: $167.02 (based on the close of January 14, premarket session not yet opened) Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Boeing Stock Today Bullish Above: $167.90 Why Bullish Above:If Boeing stock rises above $167.90, it would

Prior +2.4% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% No changes to the initial estimates with core annual inflation in Spain seen ticking higher to 2.6%, up from 2.4% in November. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Microsoft is announcing that is wasn’t hiring in the US consulting unit as part of cost-cutting plan. The announcement comes after an earlier one from Meta that it was culling its workforce by 5%. A small kink in the employment armor perhaps or is it the rewards of AI and increased productivity? This article was

That is a huge headline OMO injection of funds: 959.5bn yuan via 7 day RRs, rate at 1.5% added 995bn of MLF mature today But, as the headline says, its an offset to maturing Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) funds. With Lunar New Year approaching there will be further fund injections to cover cash demand over

TradeCompass: Canadian Dollar Futures Analysis – 15 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Canadian Dollar Futures (CAD/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 0.69835 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Canadian Dollar Futures Today Bullish Above: 0.6989 Why Bullish Above:If Canadian Dollar Futures rise above 0.6989, the price would surpass the VWAP of January 6 and

The calendar lists New Zealand business confidence data. This was published yesterday and gave the $kiwi a small bid right before Trump ‘advisors’ were reported as considering gradual tariffs, which gave the kiwi more of a ramp higher: New Zealand Q4 business confidence jumped higher to +16% (prior -1%) Trump’s tariff team studying gradual hikes

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE +0.6% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% UK stocks are buoyed after the softer inflation numbers from earlier. Meanwhile, other major indices in Europe are holding on to slight gains for now with all eyes on the US CPI report later in the

Have you noticed how some traders seem to grow their accounts unbelievably quickly? Somehow, they turn modest beginnings into impressive sums…Are they using a hidden formula, perhaps? The post How To Compound Your Trading Returns And Make Big Money appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The Wall Street Journal (gated) has the report, citing unnamed industry lobbyists. In brief, Trump is preparing executive orders to promote fossil fuels and reverse policies favoring electric vehicles (EVs). After his inauguration next Monday, he is expected to direct federal agencies to roll back President Biden’s restrictions on offshore and federal land drilling, according

It makes sense for interest rates to reach 2% by the summer Risks to French growth forecast (0.9% for 2025) are to the downside But we do not see a recession happening With economic woes mounting in Europe, the ECB has to sell the story that they’ve done enough on the inflation front. And that

That compares with ~62% odds before we got the softer UK CPI report here. Looking out to the entirety of this year, traders are pricing in ~49 bps of rate cuts in total. That is just a slight step down from what was priced in going into the turn of the year. The pound reaction

I haven’t got topics for these. But, be on alert. The times are listed in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0800/0300 Speech by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 0830/0330 Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau is to address the French Senate’s finance commission 0835/0335 European Central Bank policymaker

Dow Jones / Market Watch carry an opinion piece (may be gated) arguing that NVDA’s strength in data centre GPUs, networking, services, and emerging products fortify the firm’s competitive ‘moat’: This is Nvidia’s secret weapon and it’s likely to propel the stock in 2025 In brief: Dominance in AI and GPUs: Nvidia’s data-center segment saw

Prior year $-129 billion December budget deficit $-87 billion versus $-75 billion expected US fiscal 2025 year-to-date deficit $711 billion. That is a record for the first three months of the fiscal year. Last year $510 billion (39% increase) December budget outlays $541 billion versus $559 billion in December 2023 December budget receipts $454 billion

The main event in the European session was the release of the UK CPI report. The data missed expectations across the board and reinforced the expectations for a 25 bps cut at the upcoming BoE’s meeting. The focus is on the US CPI report though as this release will likely set the trend for the

TikTok intends to disable its app for U.S. users on Sunday, the day a federal law banning the platform takes effect, unless the Supreme Court intervenes, according to two sources familiar with the company’s plans. Rather than allowing existing users to continue accessing the app, TikTok will completely shut it down, making the ban’s impact

Last week I posted on some shifting forecasts for the RBA: ANZ expects a 25bp interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia February meeting due to weaker inflation figures in Q4 Citi are unmoved: expect the first RBA rate cut at the May meeting expect 75bp of cuts this year RBA on hold

Goldman Sachs analysts suggest the British Pound can stabilize despite recent declines, although risks remain: GBP is “down but not out” The background to GS’ views are the recent sharp weakness in the pound: investor concerns about UK debt market dynamics, with bond sell-offs driving yields higher and raising government borrowing costs broader concerns about

NASDAQ index down for the fifth consecutive day Crude oil snaps its three day run to the upside Feds’ WIlliams: Housing affordability main concern in Fed NY district Microsoft pauses hiring in US consulting unit as part of cost cutting plan CBS: Israel and Hamas have agreed In principle to a cease-fire deal US Federal

We are recently seeing rapid moves Alarmed over FX moves, including those driven by speculators If you take in the December move, then yeah there is a decent surge higher in USD/JPY but owing mostly to bond yields I would say. This month itself, the pair is rather “well behaved”. In fact, it is now

Later today, Wednesday, 15 December, we get the US consumer inflation data for November 2024 due at 1330 GMT which is 0830 US Eastern time Earlier posts: US December CPI preview – forecasts from 17 investment bank economists Goldman Sachs headline and core US December CPI forecasts The PPI was out on Tuesday: Forexlive Americas

Prior 0.0% German wholesale prices were marginally higher in December but for the year itself, wholesale prices fell by an average of 1.3% in 2024. That compares with the 0.6% increase in 2023. The lower prices in wholesale trade of mineral oil products (-5.4%) were the main influence for the drag last year. This article

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

For what it is worth: CBS is reporting that Israel must have agreed “in principle” to a cease-fire deal This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass: Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures Analysis – 14 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 20940 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Nasdaq 100 Futures Today Bullish Above: 21020 Why Bullish Above:If Nasdaq 100 futures surpass 21020, the price will clear yesterday’s Point of Control (POC)

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking at a BoJ branch manager meeting Earlier comments here: BoJ Gov Ueda says will raise rates if improvement in economy & price conditions continues More now there was a lot of positive talk about wage hikes at the meeting timing of adjusting monetary policy is up to future economic,

Fed’s William’s did not comment on monetary policy but did say: Housing affordability main concern in NY Fed District Demand for housing continues to outstrip supply. Housing challenges holdback New York Fed district. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s unemployment rate rose sharply to 3.7% in December, the highest in 3.5 years, amid heightened economic uncertainty and political turmoil. This marked a significant increase from 2.7% in November. The number of employed people decreased by 52,000 year-over-year in December, the first decline since February 2021, following a gain of 123,000 in November,

Standard Chartered warn that a ‘clean break’ of US$90,000 could trigger a wave of ETF unwinds and a drop to the low $80K level: spot bitcoin ETF purchases since the U.S. election are now only breaking even digital assets have been caught up in a macro-driven sell-off since Fed Chair Powell turned hawkish on December

Arrest finally made. An attempt was made on January 3, unsuccessfully (pic below): This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs forecasts for the US December CPI due at 8.30 am US Eastern time today, Wednesday, January 15, 2025 1330 GMT Headline CPI forecasts from GS: 2.91% y/y 0.4% m/m Core CPI forecasts: 3.27 y/y 0.25% m/m Close to consensus: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tatsuo Yamasaki is a former Japanese vice minister of finance for international affairs. He spoke with Japanese media, Nikkei, saying Trump would do well to cooperate with Tokyo on weakening the overly strong dollar. USD/JPY non-responsive: *** Yamasaki is a former Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. That is the official who

In what was up and down trading today, the major indices are closing mixed. The Dow industrial average closed higher for the 2nd day in a row. The index was helped by: Caterpillar, +2.5% 3M +1.99% Sherwin WIlliams, +1.63% Travelers +1.55% Goldman Sachs +1.50% Salesforce +1.39% Meanwhile the NASDAQ index is lower for its fifth

The EURUSD is moving back hgiher and is retesting its 200 hour moving average. Recall from earlier today, the price moved up to the 200-hour moving average and found willing sellers near the level. The price rotated back to the downside stalling ahead of its 100-hour moving average at 1.0268. The low price could only

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Inauguration is next week, and sources are reporting that Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos will all have prominent places at the event. Obviously Musk is the most prominent of the three with his position co-lead the Department of Governmental Efficiency or DOGE. There is talk, he may also have an office in

In the video above I take a look at both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD from a technical perspective. From that perspective, each are doing similar things. For the AUDUSD, the upside was capped by its 200-hour moving average For the NZDUSD, the downside was supported by its 100-hour moving average. Both are staging the

BlackRock’s latest says that to start 2025, their outlook remains pro-risk, with a focus on U.S. stocks. However, the view may shift based on three key factors: Policy Changes: Monitoring U.S. tariffs and fiscal policy for potential impacts on the market. Corporate Earnings and Valuations: Evaluating whether investor appetite for risk diminishes due to earnings

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President-elect Trump is preparing pro-fossil fuel executive orders ahead of his inauguration next week. Some highlights: Executive Orders on Energy: President-elect Trump plans a series of executive orders to promote fossil fuels and reverse policies supporting electric vehicles (EVs). Drilling Policies: Trump is expected to instruct agencies to

The major US stock indices are maintaining gains in premarket trading but levels are off the post PPI highs. The NASDAQ index is looking to snap a four day losing streak. A snapshot of the market implied by the futures shows: Dow industrial average +141 S&P index +22.25 point NASDAQ index +107 points Looking at

The Major European indices are closing mostly higher with the one the exception being the UK’s FTSE 100. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.64% France”s CAC, +0.20% UK’s FTSE 100, -0.28% Spain’s Ibex, +0.56% Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.93%. As London/European head for the exits, the fortunes in the US stock market

TradeCompass: British Pound Futures Analysis – 14 January 2025 Financial Instrument: British Pound Futures (GBP/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 1.2158 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for British Pound Futures Today Bullish Above: 1.2215 Why Bullish Above:If British Pound futures rise above 1.2215, the price would surpass the Point of Control (POC) from

TradeCompass: Euro FX Futures Analysis – 14 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Euro FX Futures (EUR/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 1.0245 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Euro FX Futures Today Bullish Above: 1.0293 Why Bullish Above:If Euro FX Futures rise above 1.0293, the price would surpass the VWAP from January 10, signaling

I posted on Himino here: BOJ’s Himino says rates will rise, but need to watch carefully for risks I noted that: I don’t see anything in Himino’s speech to indicate he is in a rush to raise rates. But there is nothing in it either to indicate he is much opposed to doing so. JPY

📈 Tech and Auto Sectors Propel Market Movements The US stock market exhibits a dynamic equilibrium with technology giants maintaining stability while the auto sector accelerates. Sectors such as semiconductors and communication services highlight notable trends, offering crucial insights for investors. 🚀 Technology Sector: Stability in Uncertainty Within the technology sphere, Microsoft (MSFT) remains steady

In the daily update of the Israel/Hamas cease-fire news: A cease-fire could be struck as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday and would be implemented 48 – 72 hours later Main issues all agreed Minor points remaining Is it the boy crying wolf again or will it finally get done and result with the 33 prisoners

Minimum age of 64 to draw full pension is not taboo Will as public accountability for an audit of French pension system Re-examining pension system will have to be done on condition that system remains financially balanced. Will propose that Parliament adopt pension reform deal found by unions, and employers if it is balanced and

The USDCHF moved lower earlier today help by the comments about phasing in tariffs from the Trump administration. The move to the downside from a technical perspective saw the price move below its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart below). However, that move was quickly reversed and the next time the price

0830 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives speech on “financial stability and too big to fail” at a financial stability law forum in Zurich This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US PPI data for the month of December will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Estimates show PPI Final Demand MoM estimate 0.3% versus 0.4% last month PPI Final Demand X food/Energy estimate 0.3% vs 0.2% last month PPI Final Demand YoY estimate 3.4% vs 3.0% last month PPI Final Demand ex food/energy est

MOre from Fed’s Schmid: Regarding tariffs, the Fed will act if there is disruption to either of its mandates. There’ will be significant time lags in the impact of new administration policies This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD price action can be paralleled to a misbehaving child. You never know what may happen next. Sometimes there is a pattern you can predict, and other times, you simply don’t know what you might get. Today, the USDCAD initially moved lower using moving averages as topside resistance. In the early US session there

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Will step up counter-cyclical policy adjustment Will prevent overshooting risks in exchange rate, to keep the yuan stable To continue to take measures to keep yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels Just some token remarks there from the PBOC official. The more striking headline involving China in this one here, with

The price of crude oil surged for the second consecutive day. Today they price settled up $2.25 or 2.94%. The catalyst? US sanction on Russian oil. The details: Crude: Crude hit a 5-month high, driven by new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude, which threaten to tighten global supply. U.S. Sanctions: New sanctions targeted Russian oil

The news that is sapping the US dollar is this: Trump’s tariff team studying gradual hikes of 2 to 5% per month USD losing ground on the ‘gradual’ tariff story AUD, GBP, NZD (also liked the QSBO) are all higher. EUR/USD also, though that final forming candle has given back a little: This article was

The EUR/USD tested its 100-hour moving average twice earlier today, with sellers defending the level and pushing the price lower each time. However, in the past few hours, the pair broke above the 100-hour moving average, signaling a shift as sellers turned into buyers. This momentum propelled the price higher to challenge its next key

TradeCompass: Bitcoin Futures Analysis – 14 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Bitcoin Futures Price at the Time of Analysis: 95800 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Bitcoin Futures Today Bullish Above: 97365 Why Bullish Above:If Bitcoin futures break above 97365, the price would surpass the Value Area Low (VAL) of January 7, the Value Area Highs

TradeCompass: S&P 500 Futures Analysis – 14 January 2025 Financial Instrument: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: Approximately 5900 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for S&P 500 Futures Today Bullish Above: 5912.5 Why Bullish Above:If the price of S&P 500 futures rises above 5912.5, it signals strength beyond the

10-year Treasury yields are down today to 4.77% and that is just slightly off the high from yesterday of 4.80%. It is holding at its highest levels since November 2023 and all eyes are on whether or not we will see yields touch the critical 5% mark. That marked the 2023 high before things reversed

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PPI? US December NFIB small business optimism index 105.1 vs 101.7 expected Bond yields slightly off the highs but the pressure remains Dollar seeks validation to start European morning trade ECB’s Holzmann says hope to hit 2% inflation target by year-end European indices post a rebound

TSLA Stock Short Trade Plan: January 14, 2025 Disclaimer: This trade plan is designed for educational purposes only. Traders should assess their own risk tolerance and financial situation before proceeding. All trades are at your own risk. Trade Plan Details Short Entry Levels Order 1: Sell 100 units at $424.39 (16.67% of position budget). Order

Prior was 101.7 NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg commenting on the report: “Optimism on Main Street continues to grow with the improved economic outlook following the election. Small business owners feel more certain and hopeful about the economic agenda of the new administration. Expectations for economic growth, lower inflation, and positive business conditions have increased

In the kickstart video for January 14, I take a look at the 3 of the major currency pairs ahead of the PPI data at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for 0.3% for the headline and the core measure. How those numbers come out, will influence the market price action in the 3 major

Prior month PPI Final demand MoM 0.4%. YoY prior month 3.0% PPI Final Demand MoM 0.2% vs estimate 0.3% PPI Final Demand ex food/Energy 0.0% vs. estimate 0.3% PPI Final Demand YoY 3.3% estimate vs est. 3.4% PPI Final Demand ex food/energy 3.5% vs est 3.8% the3.5%. prior month PPI ex food/energy and trade 3.3%

Well, they have to keep up this optimistic front for now as they are still on the path of cutting rates further. The recent inflation numbers in Q4 last year reflected a bumpy path and that could potentially stretch on for a bit more this year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fitch is out saying: Sgnificantly wide estimates for insured losses related to California fires with a range between $10 billion and $30 billion Estimates for total economic losses related to California fires range between $150 billion-$275 billion With disasters, there is the dip in economic activity and then the recovery from the rebuild over time.

As a reminder, below are some of the comments from Fed;s Schmid on January 9 Interest rate policy may be ‘near’ where it needs to be for the longer run Fed is ‘pretty close’ to meeting both its mandates Inflation moving towards target, growth showing momentum Jobs market weaker but still healthy Optimistic over growth

The NASDAQ index has been down for four consecutive days, but is leading the way higher with a gain of near 180 points or 0.93% at 19266. S&P index is up 31.50 points or 0.53% at 5867 Dow industrial average is up 174 points or 0.41% and 42470 Russell 2000 is trading up 24.36 points

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is being grilled by members of Parliament today. Yields in the UK have been surging with the high yield reaching 4.905% this week. That is the highest level since 2008. At the same time, the GBP has been moving lower. Remains committed to fiscal rules at all times

The 10-year yield has moved up seven of the last nine trading days. During that time, the yield has moved from a low of 4.51% to the current yield at 4.780%. Prior to that move, the yield had moved up from a December 6 low of 4.126%. Since mid-September, the yield is up from 3.60%.

A Reuters poll shows: 24 of 36 bond strategist see US 10 year yield is likely to surpass 5% mark in 2025 On the downside, the strategist see the 10 year bond yield falling to 4.35% at this time next year. That is up from 4.25% last month. This article was written by Greg Michalowski

Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa says the BoJ’s consideration of a rate hike and the government’s aim to exit deflation are not contradictory Bank of Japan and govmt cooperating well This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to continue lowering interest rates and expects to exit restrictive monetary policy in the coming months, likely by midsummer, according to Finnish policymaker Olli Rehn. However, uncertainties surrounding potential U.S. trade tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump could complicate the economic outlook. Rehn noted that monetary policy is expected to

A slip for the US dollar in thin pre-Tokyo trade this morning, this the catalyst: Trump’s tariff team studying gradual hikes of 2 to 5% per month USD losing ground on the ‘gradual’ tariff story Meanwhile from the Wall Street Journal, what’s expected for the US inflation data due on Wednesday, January 15, 2025 at

Eurostoxx +0.8% Germany DAX +0.5% France CAC 40 +0.9% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This follows from the losses yesterday as risk sentiment has turned the corner in the new day. S&P 500 futures are also marked higher, now seen up by close to 0.4% on the day. The mood

Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday, January 14, 2025 include Williams, Schmid Akazawa: BoJ’s considering rate hike & govmnt aim to exit deflation are not contradictory European Central Bank’s Lane speaking Tuesday, January 14, 2025 Goldman Sachs expects more stimulus from China to counter Trump tariffs Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking on Tuesday, January

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence for January 2024 -0.7% m/m prior –2.0% The index drops to 92.1 prior 92.8 This is a monthly report. We had the weekly confidence data earlier, dropping also: Australian weekly consumer confidence survey fell to 87.1 (prior 87.5) The big news, moving markets, is not this data, it’s the ‘gradual’ tariff

In case you missed it: Trump’s tariff team studying gradual hikes of 2 to 5% per month It sort of ties back to this report last week here, as it appears Trump’s team is still concocting something on the tariffs front. They are exploring different options before rolling things out but knowing Trump, he will

Over the past month, the S&P 500 chart has begun to resemble a roller coaster, with more dips than rises, resulting in a decline of about 3.8%. As for small caps, the Russell 2000 index, which helps gauge overall risk aversion in the market, fell 6.8%. Finally, the Nasdaq index posted a 4.7% decline. In

Prior +7.1% New yuan loans ¥990 billion vs ¥800 billion expected Prior ¥580 billion The total for new yuan loans in 2024 was ¥18.1 trillion and that’s far short of the 2023 record of ¥22.8 trillion. That’s not too positive a signal as new bank lending appears to be slowing at a crucial time with

German DAX futures +0.5% French CAC 40 futures +0.8% UK FTSE futures flat The snap back comes after the late resurgence in Wall Street yesterday and the overall mood is now helped by potentially less fears surrounding Trump’s inflation agenda here. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% as 10-year Treasury yields are backing off the

The major US stock indices are closing mostly higher with the NASDAQ index the laggard. Even the Russell 2000 is in positive territory. The gains come ahead of the US PPI final demand data on Tuesday. The CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 358.67

Info via Reuters overnight, story is here. In summary: The well-supplied global oil market minimizes the risk of market disruption from a reduced price cap. Six EU nations, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, advocate for lowering the $60 oil price cap to weaken Russia’s war funding. G7 price caps have not changed since

Fundamental Overview After the breakout of the 2-month long range, crude oil has been squeezing higher with an almost 10% rally. The catalyst for the move higher since Friday has been attributed to tougher US sanctions on Russian crude on expected supply disruptions. The market has been also supported by positive macro factors as the

Gold is trading up and down since taking it’s last run higher from September that saw the precious metal summit at $2790.07 on October 30. Since, then there was a Correction down to early/mid September lows at $2535 area, A couple of high at $2721.41, and A higher low at $2584.63 The price moved higher

Fundamental Overview The price action in gold in the last few trading days has been all over the place. We saw a strange rally following the strong US NFP report and a drop to erase all the gains yesterday despite the lack of key catalysts. We now have the US PPI and CPI reports ahead

TradeCompass: Ethereum Futures Analysis – 14 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Ethereum Futures (ETH Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 3240 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Ethereum Futures Today Bullish Above: 3315 Why Bullish Above:If Ethereum futures rise above 3315, they will break above the Value Area Low (VAL) of January 10. This move

Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). Business confidence in Q4 +comes in at +16% the prior quarter was -1% NZD/USD is up a few tics after the report. The full report from NZIER is here: QSBO shows improved sentiment while actual activity remains soft In Summary:

The news is here ICYMI: Trump’s tariff team studying gradual hikes of 2 to 5% per month Bloomberg with the info, citing unnamed ‘people familiar’: Members of Donald Trump’s incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in

We have another empty European session today in terms of data releases. The main event today is the US PPI report which might set the sentiment going into the US CPI report due tomorrow. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US December PPI The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.0% prior, while the M/M

When the right timing comes, BOJ must change policy without delay Short-term moves in long-term rates won’t serve as a basis for our policy decision Main scenario is for wages to grow as strongly this year as it did last year But want to scrutinise all information leading up to next week’s policy meeting This

European Central Bank chief economist Lane: 0735 GMT / 0235 US Eastern time Keynote speech by ECB board member Philip Lane at joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on “Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy” Also, keep an eye out for this during Asia time on Wednesday 15 January, at 0315 GMT (which is 2215 US Eastern

The S&P index has moved into positive territory. The high price just reached 5830.76. The current price is trading at 5827.41 up 0.41 points on the day. The Dow industrial average is extending its gains to 306 points or 0.73% at 42245.30. Much of the gain is as a result of gains in UnitedHealth, Caterpillar,

Coming up at 1500 China time: 0700 GMT, 0200 US Eastern time Xuan Changneng, Deputy Governor of the People’s of China, and Li Bin, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will hold a press conference: on financial support for high-quality economic development — China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is a

1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange, in Kansas City, Mo 2005 GMT/1505 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual “An Economy That Works for

Japanese markets reopen today after a holiday on Monday. Nothing on the data calendar is likely to move major FX around too much. Nevertheless, given the approach of the next Bank of Japan meeting (January 23 and 24) and the chatter of a rate hike (BOJ reportedly still mulling over January monetary policy decision) the

It is desirable for FX market to move in line with fundamentals Sudden divergences from fundamentals need correcting This comes from a speech that he is making in Tokyo. You can take the man out of the job but you can’t take the job out of the man I guess. This article was written by

China plans to implement a variety of stimulus measures to counter the impact of anticipated U.S. tariffs and a continued housing market downturn, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank expects the Chinese government to introduce additional monetary and fiscal easing, along with support for the housing sector. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, stated

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0200 level once again. After the story on Trump’s team exploring a possible option to only gradually increase tariffs, we’re seeing the dollar feel hampered coming into trading today. As such, the expiries above

Things started off rather poorly for stocks yesterday but dip buyers managed to salvage something by the end of it all. Tech shares were still the laggard but it certainly wasn’t as bad as could be from the onset. The S&P 500 somehow pulled off a stunning recovery to even close above its 100-day moving

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Don’t have something like a check list of sorts in deciding whether to hike rates in January Will not tie Trump’s inauguration address directly to January decision on rates But will look to scrutinise balance of new US policy measures He’s not really giving anything away but markets are certainly keeping the door open. As

Japanese bank lending data has garnered increased attention over the past 6 to 12 months. As the economy has crawled towards recovery, combined with rising raw material costs and a weakening yen, corporate demand for working capital has risen. Large firms have been engaged in robust capital investment , boosting demand also. Japanese government stimulus

The EURUSD moved to and through the 61.8% retracement of the range since the 2022 low to the 2023 high. That level came in at the natural support level of 1.0200. Breaking below was more bearish. The momentum on the break took the price down to 1.01753, but selling dried up and the price for

Bloomberg with the info on a plan to gradually raise tariffs by 2 to 5% a month. In brief: Advisors on Trump’s incoming economic team are considering a gradual implementation of tariffs, increasing them incrementally each month. This approach is intended to strengthen their negotiating position while minimizing the risk of sudden inflation, according to

Comments from ANZ on the ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index for Australia: maintained most of its new year gains, falling just 0.4pts. Confidence about household finances over the next 12mths has jumped 7.8pts since the end of 2024 This data tends not to be AUD mover. AUD/USD is higher on the gradual tariff plan

Mixed ending for the major indices. Nasdaq lower but other indices close higher Gold consolidates gains as buyers and sellers wait for the next break Crude oil futures settle at $78.82 Fitch estimates for economic losses related to California fires range from $150B to $275B ECB Vileroy: French GDP growth could pick up 2026 and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Chinese officials are considering the possibility of Elon Musk acquiring TikTok’s U.S. operations if the platform is unable to avoid a controversial ban on its services in the country. Chinese officials prefer that TikTok remain under the control of parent Bytedance, but if that’s not going to work Musk might. Bloomberg News had the report,

Ahead of the model estimate for the People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate some numbers bouncing around suggest it’ll head towards 7.3200. Of course, the PBoC won’t set the rate anywhere near that, circa 7.18 is the betting. The USD was strong on Monday US time., but its given some back on the gradual

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Himino speech Will likely hike rates if our economic forecasts are realized. While direction is for further rate hikes, we must carefully watch various upside, downside risks at home and abroad. Hoping this year’s wage negotiations will deliver strong results. Reports from BOJ’s regional branch managers on wage

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to cut its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on January 16, earlier than previously forecast, to support South Korea’s struggling economy amid political instability and a downgraded growth outlook. A Reuters poll found that 80% of economists anticipate the rate cut, while the remaining

ECBs Villeroy is on the wires saying: French growth could pick up in 2026 and 2027. What about 2025? Bank of France maintains Q4 GDP at 0.0% Financial markets will assess France’s credibility France is not at risk in financing itself. The question is at what cost? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

NY Fed: Year-ahead expected inflation unchanged at 3% in December. UNCHNANGED December three-year-ahead expected inflation at 3% vs. 2.6% in November. HIGHER Five-year-ahead expected inflation at 2.7% in December vs. 2.9% in November. LOWER Expected home price rise at 3.1% in December vs. 3% in November. MODESTLY HIGHER December year-ahead expected food prices increased. December

The major European indices are closing lower on the day with declines in the -0.30-0.40% range. A snapshot of the closing level shows: German DAX, -0.38% Frances CAC, -0.30% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.29% Spain’s Ibex, -0.28% Italy FTSE MIB -0.83% As the European traders had for the exits, the US major indices are mixed: Dow

Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level. The price is currently trading down or -4.74% on the trading day at $89,845. The low price reached $89,164. Close resistance is between $90742 to $92092 (see yellow area on the chart below) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.2% This carries over the negative sentiment from the end of last week, spoiled by a stronger US jobs report and higher bond yields. US futures are also subdued, with S&P 500 futures seen down 0.4% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF is extending to new highs for the day and in the process is looking to test Friday’s post-employment run to the upside. That high on Friday reached 0.91877. The high price today is just below that level. The price also moved away from the rising 100 and 200-hour MAs at 0.9125 and 0.90993.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 437.1 bn vs CHF 426.6 bn prior After a couple of weeks of declines on the turn of the year, Swiss sight deposits are seen picking back up again in the past week. We’ll see how the trend plays out before drawing much of any other conclusions to start the new

TradeCompass: Japanese Yen Futures Analysis – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Japanese Yen Futures (JPY/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 0.0063905 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Japanese Yen Futures Today Bullish Above: 0.0063865 Why Bullish Above:If the JPY/USD futures price moves above 0.0063865, it will surpass the first lower standard deviation of

The AUDUSD on Friday fell below a swing low going back to October 2022 at 0.61695 (red number 2 on the chart below). That took the price to the lowest level going back to April 2020 (see chart below). In trading today, the price has been waffling up and down with a new low reached

The news earlier should be yuan supportive: PBoC and SAFE move to allow Chinese firms great access to foreign capital People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi

Headlines: Dollar keeps in control to start the new week Weekly update on interest rate expectations Traders are only barely seeing one rate cut by the Fed for this year now Stocks accelerate losses in European morning trade ECB’s Vujcic: ECB unlikely to accelerate rate cuts ECB’s Rehn: It makes sense to continue with rate

The bleeding continues from Friday’s gash wound as equities are seeing red again today. S&P 500 futures were down earlier by around 0.4% but are accelerating losses now to over 0.8% on the day. Meanwhile, European indices are also seeing the slight losses from earlier gather pace. The DAX is down 0.8% and CAC 40

Reuters is reporting that Hamas said some talks over some core issues for cease-fire may progress. Working to conclude what remains soon This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Economic Data Releases Tuesday, January 14th United States: Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%) PPI m/m: 0.4% (previous: 0.4%) Wednesday, January 15th United Kingdom: CPI y/y: 2.6% (previous: 2.6%) United States: Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%) CPI m/m: 0.3% (previous: 0.3%) CPI y/y: 2.9% (previous: 2.7%) Empire State Manufacturing Index: -0.3 (previous: 0.2) Thursday,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) have raised the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing from 1.5 to 1.75, effective January 13, 2025. This is a significant move in China’s monetary and regulatory policy landscape. Here’s a breakdown of what this means: What is the Macro-Prudential Adjustment

The US stock market is off to a negative start for the week. The declines are led by the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 stocks. The Dow stocks are now trading higher as the flow of funds is out of the riskier stocks. A snapshot of the market shows: Dow industrial average +87.99 points or

December payroll data from the US was much stronger than expected: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 10 Jan: Strong US jobs sends the USD & yields higher. The +256,000 headline significantly beat expectations of 160,000. The highest expected was +200,000, while the 140K-185K range showed the most clustering. If you didn’t know this going into

Sector Overview The stock market heatmap reveals a pronounced downturn in the technology sector, particularly among semiconductor stocks, while the healthcare sector displays pockets of strength, led by health plan providers. 📉 Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) leads the decline with a steep drop of 3.13%, reflecting broader negative sentiment in the tech industry. AMD shows resilience

Fundamental Overview The USD got another boost on Friday following the NFP report as the data beat expectations by a big margin almost across the board. The market scaled back the rate cuts expectations further with now just one cut expected by the end of the year. The focus remains on inflation and this week

The export restrictions mostly covers advanced computing chips used for AI and builds on previous curbs set out last year on exporting certain chips to China itself. The new controls on AI chips will see quotas on exports to about 120 countries but 18 US allies and partners will be exempt from that. The list

A day after the stronger than expected US jobs report, the USD is modestly higher with the largest gains vs the EUR (+0.52%) and the GBP (+0.81%). THe dollar has small gains vs the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD and is lower vs the JPY (-0.22%) to start the week. EURUSD: THe EURUSD is stretching

Prior month revise to 109.45 from 109.55 Employment trends for December 109.70 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved sharply to the downside in early NA trading after the highs today stalled near the low of an upper swing area (at 1.44488) The market price waffled up and down in the European session today, but over the last hour or so has taken a run to the downside. That move

The dollar is once again keeping firmer in trading today, mostly advancing against the euro and pound. It is down against the yen but keeping steadier across the board elsewhere. GBP/USD is the biggest loser, down 0.7% to 1.2120 levels at the moment. The pair is continuing to stay poised in chasing further downside with

The order US stock indices are on a three day losing streak and on pace for its 4th today with the premarket futures trading to lower levels. A snapshot of the implied openings shows: Dow industrial average -75 points. S&P -45 points NASDAQ index -234 points A major market bellweather, Nvidia is trading sharply lower.

I posted earlier on Morgan Stanley unmoved by the jobs report: ICYMI – Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to cut rates in March In the preamble to that post I spoke about the data. Repeating it here ’cause it contains what should be useful info: December payroll data from the US was much stronger than

The China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) holding a meeting in Beijing, under the guidance of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), is a noteworthy event, as such meetings often involve discussions on key issues related to China’s foreign exchange policies and market stability. meeting discussed resolutely keeping the yuan exchange rate basically stable and at

There are a couple of massive expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are all for EUR/USD with the more notable ones being at 1.0200 and 1.0250 currently. There’s an even larger one at 1.0300 but it might not feature much into play given the dollar strength since

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead, as is typically the case following the NFP release. Monday starts slowly, with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the core PPI m/m and PPI m/m data and Wednesday will feature inflation data releases for both the U.K. and the

TradeCompass: Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures Analysis – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 20885 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Nasdaq 100 Futures Today Bullish Above: 20986 Why Bullish Above:If Nasdaq 100 futures surpass 20986, the price would trade above today’s VWAP, the developing

They’re not the only ones to pare back expectations after the stronger US jobs report last week. Goldman Sachs also did that too, but from three to two. And as things stand, traders themselves are pricing in just one rate cut for the year as seen here. This article was written by Justin Low at

Chinese trade data for December 2024, USD denominated figures: Trade Balance 104.84bn expected 99.8bn, prior 97.44bn surge in exports balloons out the surplus even more Exports +10.7% y/y expected +7.3%, prior +6.7% exports have likely been boosted by the surge to send goods offshore ahead of expected Trump tariffs Imports +1.0% y/y expected -1.5%, prior

Hong Kong Monetary Authority statement: HKMA and PBoC will set up CNY 100bln liquidity facility for trade finance China to encourage listings and debt issuance in Hong Kong Bond Connect Southbound Scheme hours to be extended onshore investor choices for international bonds through link to expand This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Everyone has a different trading journey and story to tell. The Finance Magnates London Summit (FMLS:24) drew plenty of big names and specialists, including Rajwinder Dhanda last November. Rajwinder Dhanda is the Founder of Dhanda the Great, who checked in with Finance Magnates during FMLS:24 to tell his personal story and success. Having left his

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. ps. It’s a Japanese holiday today, which will keep it thinner for longer. Singapore and Hong Kong will return liqudiituy to markets

A note from Fidelity takes a look at gold after a banner year in 2024: Gold prices climbing approximately 27% in 2024 largest annual increase in 14 years factors contributing included interest rate cuts, persistent geopolitical tensions, and favorable supply-and-demand conditions Looking ahead, Fidelity say gold bulls are optimistic that a weakening U.S. dollar and

I posted earlier on the news: US and UK tighten sanctions on Russian oil industry The news broke on Friday: US will impose sanctions on 180 vessels transporting Russian crude, dozens of traders and two major oil companies Oil update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Philip Lane is the Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB). European economy still recovering from the pandemic ECB baseline for Europe is a recovery Expects consumption to improve in 2025 More easing from the Bank is likely Lane speaking as part of a “policy dialogue” at

TradeCompass: Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Bitcoin Futures Price at the Time of Analysis: 94615 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Bitcoin Futures Today Bullish Above: 96000 Why Bullish Above:If Bitcoin futures cross above 96000, it would indicate price trading above today’s developing Value Area High (VAH) and surpassing the

Over the weekend, he adds that “the preparations are underway”. And that while “we haven’t set the exact framework for it yet”, the call is a starting point and they will take on discussions from there. As for the nature of the call itself, Waltz merely mentioned that: “You can’t enter a deal if you

A stronger US jobs report at the end of last week led to a dollar rally and higher yields. But still, gold managed to thrive as it closed 0.7% higher on Friday and coming close to testing the $2,700 mark. The new week is still seeing price hold steadier, around $2,689 currently. As mentioned last

Fundamental Overview The USD got another boost on Friday following the NFP report as the data beat expectations by a big margin almost across the board. The market scaled back the rate cuts expectations further with now just one cut expected by the end of the year. The focus remains on inflation and this week

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dpoke in an interview with CNBC on Sunday: “As we did last time, we are ready to respond with tariffs as necessary” Trudeau is referring here to 2018, when Canada slapped dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum in response to the Trump tariffs on Canada’s steel and aluminum during

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today S&P 500 Futures Analysis Today China intensified efforts on Monday to stabilize the weakening yuan China December USD denominated Exports +10.7% y/y (expected +7.3%) Imports +1.0% (-1.5%) HKMA and PBoC to set up a CNY 100bn liquidity facility for trade finance Some Chinese trade data is dribbling out. 2024 total imports

China intensified efforts on Monday to stabilize the weakening yuan, which has been under pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar, declining Chinese bond yields, and rising trade tensions. The measures include relaxing rules for offshore borrowing and issuing verbal warnings as the currency hovers near a 16-month low against the dollar. The links are

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 24 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 85 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 42 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 41 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 61 bps

I posted earlier on Morgan Stanley being unmoved by the jobs report: ICYMI – Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to cut rates in March They look like they are on a desert island though, analysts elsewhere are dialling back rate cut expectations. Goldman Sachs for example: Goldman Sachs now expect two Federal Reserve interest rate

ECB unlikely to accelerate rate cuts. Cutting faster would need a more significant departure from out projections. Gradual moves are best amid uncertainty. Near-term market bets are justified. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Ministry of Commerce unveiled its primary objectives for 2025 on Sunday, focusing on expanding access to China’s market, strengthening global collaboration in supply chain development, and maintaining stability in foreign trade and capital flows. In a statement released after a two-day annual meeting, the ministry committed to enhancing domestic consumption, aligning more closely with

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.2% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% European equities are starting off with slight losses, carrying over the negative mood from last week. This comes as US futures are also lower but the declines are mostly led by tech shares. S&P 500 futures

Fundamental Overview The USD got another boost on Friday following the NFP report as the data beat expectations by a big margin almost across the board. The market scaled back the rate cuts expectations further with now just one cut expected by the end of the year. The focus remains on inflation and this week

By the middle of summer, we should be leaving restrictive territory The direction of rates is clear, growth outlook has weakened There are plenty of concerns on geopolitical developments Exchange rate has an impact on inflation but ECB has no policy target on currency This just serves to reaffirm the diverging paths between the ECB

TradeCompass: EUR/USD Analysis – Euro FX Futures Today – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Euro FX Futures (EUR/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 1.0245 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for EUR/USD Futures Today Bullish Above: 1.0265 Why Bullish Above:If EUR/USD futures climb above 1.0265, the price would re-enter today’s developing Value Area and

Today is going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday as we don’t have any market moving release on the agenda and the markets will continue to trade based on the US NFP report. The only highlight today might be the US Consumer Inflation Expectations report from the NY Fed given the market’s sensitivity to

PBoC Governor Pan stated that China’s economy has tackled risks and challenges in recent years, adding that there is confidence and capacity to overcome economic difficulties. Interest rate and RRR tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity. Reaffirms China plans to increase the fiscal deficit. China will remain a driving force for the global

Earlier posts on what to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now: ICYMI – Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to cut rates in March Goldman Sachs now expect two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025, down from three ICYMI – Bank of America see no Fed interest rate cuts in 2025, risk

TradeCompass: S&P 500 Futures Analysis Today – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 5842 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for S&P 500 Futures Today Bullish Above: 5866 Why Bullish Above:If the price of S&P 500 futures or ES futures crosses above 5866, it signals

Earlier post on this is here: China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) held meeting – pledged to support yuan The Wall Street Journal reports now (may be gated): Officials said they aim to stabilize the yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level In a nutshell: Chinese foreign-exchange regulators reiterated their pledge to defend the yuan

Prior to the strong US jobs report at the end of last week, traders had priced in the first rate cut for June this year. In total, market players were looking for ~42 bps going into Friday at the time. Fast forward to today and the landscape has shifted quite dramatically. As things stand, Fed

Its been a notable session of new highs and lows. I’ve been tweeting them as they happened rather than posting them, but here they are for the record: GBP/USD hits a 14 month low under 1.2193 (GBPeso?) … and its since dropped lower AUD/USD falls under 0.6140 and to its lowest since April 2020 (ps.

Data dripping out from China’s Customs. Customs officials say that imports were impacted by global commodities price changes in H2 of 2024. Some countries’ ‘politicization of economic and trade issues’ and ‘abuse of export controls’ also impacted China’s imports last year. There is still plenty of space for China’s imports growth this year. More: yuan

Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge for December 2024: 0.6% m/m, the largest jump higher in a year prior 0.2% trimmed mean +0.4% m/m, highest since March 2024 2.6% y/y prior 2.9% AUD is little changed. Around 0.6155. *** The Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge is an independent, monthly measure of inflation in Australia. It is

Polymarket is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform for information markets, allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Essentially, it enables participants to express their opinions or predictions about various topics—such as politics, sports, finance, or global events—by buying or selling shares in the outcomes of specific questions. Singapore says ‘No”. Singapore has joined

It’s a holiday in Japan today, markets will reopen on Tuesday. News and data flow is basically zero. USD/JPY has fallen back from its earlier highs to approach the low seen on Friday in NY: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US administration imposed tougher sanctions on Russian oil: target more than 200 entities and individuals including traders, officials, insurance companies, hundreds of oil tankers UK will join the US in directly sanctioning energy companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas Via BBC (more at the link): Some of the measures announced by the US Treasury on

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Torsten Sløk is Apollo Chief Economist. In a note title “The Economy Is Re-Accelerating” Sløk notes the rising probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2025: employment report came in stronger than expected weekly same-store retail sales were better than expected Prices Paid for ISM Services came in higher than expected bottom line

New Zealand home consents for November 2024: +5.3% m/m -5.2% the prior month +4.8% y/y Stats NZ says that “While the number of homes consented each month has fluctuated, the trend has remained relatively steady for the last year” *** NZD barely moving. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come China’s exports are expected to have expanded at a faster pace in December than in November, with firms hurrying to move inventory to major markets ahead of Trump’s return to the White House this month and the accompanying fresh trade risks. Imports are expected to have fallen, for the third month in

Mon: N/A Tue: EIA STEO; CBR Policy Announcement; Indian WPI (Dec), US PPI (Dec) Wed: IEA OMR, UK CPI (Dec), EZ Industrial Production (Nov), US CPI (Dec), NY Fed Manufacturing (Jan) Thu: ECB Minutes (Dec), BoK Policy Announcement; Australian Employment (Dec), UK GDP (Nov), EZ Trade Balance (Nov), US Import/Export Prices (Dec), Jobless Claims (w/e

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: NY Fed Inflation Expectations. Tuesday: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US PPI. Wednesday: UK CPI, US CPI. Thursday: Japan PPI, Australia Employment report, UK GDP, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Import Prices, US NAHB Housing Market Index, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI. Friday: China activity data, UK Retail Sales, US

The most-interesting Federal Reserve decision of Trump’s Presidency is likely to be June 17, 2026. That is a meeting that contains economic projections and will also be the first meeting chaired by Trump’s FOMC Chairman. He has frequently lamented his choice of Powell, in part because the Fed Chair took a hard line against political

Crude oil is settling at $76.57 per barrel, up $2.65 or 3.56%. The price reached a 3- month high today. New U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s oil exports helped to contribute to the rise. The Biden administration imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, their subsidiaries, over 180 vessels, oil traders, oilfield service

The USDCHF is up for the 4th day in row. For a review of what that mean technically, click on the video below for all the risks, targets and “whys”. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks close sharply lower Key economic data releases next week. Earnings calendar begins. Crude oil settles at $76.57 Baker Hughes oil rig count -2 at 480 European stock markets struggle on Friday but post gains on the week Goldman Sachs expects Fed to cut by 50 basis points this year versus 75 bps previously

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower on the day. The declines were led by the Russell 2000 which fell -2.22%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -696.75 points or -1.63% at 41938.45 S&P index -91.21 point to rise 1.54% at 5827.04 NASDAQ index -317.25 points or -1.63% at

I’ve been writing since the turn of the year that it will be a ‘catch-down’ trade for the pound in 2025 after it mostly kept pace with the US dollar in 2024. It’s been a rough start to the year for GBP as it’s lagged substantially already, including another 100 pip decline today to 1.2211.

Monday, January 13th China: New Loans: 890B (previous: 580B) Tuesday, January 14th United States: Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%) United States: PPI m/m: 0.4% (previous: 0.4%) Wednesday, January 15th UK: CPI y/y: 2.6% (previous: 2.6%) United States: Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%) United States: CPI m/m: 0.3% (previous: 0.3%) United States: CPI y/y:

The weekly Baker Hughes Rig count declined in the current week. Oil rigs -2 to 480 Nat Gas -3 to 100 Total rigs -5 to 584 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The bulk of the pre-non farm payrolls numbers point to a soft reading but I think that’s priced into the consensus at +160K compared to +227K prior. The late Thanksgiving doesn’t make for an obvious risk but I would suspect it biases it higher, though we didn’t see that in ADP or ISM services. Seasonal

Reuters have the report that U.S. and Danish officials lobbied the developer of Greenland’s largest rare earths deposit last year not to sell its project to Chinese-linked firms. Little wonder Trump is keen on getting more US control over the island. Reuters report is here: US lobbied Greenland rare earths developer Tanbreez not to sell

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 level once again. That is likely to help keep a lid on price action until we get to the US jobs report later in the day. That especially since the dollar

The USDCAD fell initially after the US and Canadian jobs reports both of came out stronger than expected. However, after the focus returned to the effect on the US dollar, that helped to reverse the USDCAD pair back to the upside. The price is now extending to a new high and in doing so is

The NZDUSD has stretched lower in trading today as the pair is hit on “risk off” flows as well as higher rates.The currency pair is down around -0.70% and the biggest mover vs the USD today. Technically, the price is stretching closer to the 2022 low which reached 0.55105. The low price today has reached

The December jobs report easily beat expectations, highlighting the continued resilience in the US labor market as employers added 256,000 jobs, significantly above the consensus forecast of 160,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, coming in below economists’ expectations and reaching its lowest level since July. The US dollar rose 80-100 pips

Goldman now sees 50 bps in easing this year in light of the strong non-farm payrolls report. Previously they saw 75 bps in easing. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The December 2024 employment report is due from the US on Friday, January 10, 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is

BOJ leaks are appearing to be more and more of a thing and this looks to be one to test the waters in gauging the market reaction before their decision later this month on 24 January. USD/JPY has dipped from 158.35 to 157.80 on the headlines here. It is said that the BOJ is considering

It is unemployment day with both the US and Canada jobs reports being released. Economists forecast a rise of 160,000 payroll jobs in December, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings growth is projected to cool to 0.3% from the previous 0.4%. The ADP came in at 122K which was

Oil is ripping higher today, rising nearly 5% to the best levels since October. WTI crude oil is up $3.60 to $77.49 while Brent has cracked $80. A Reuters report appeared to kick off the move as it says the US will impose sanctions on 180 vessels transporting Russian crude, dozens of traders and two

The US jobs report came in stronger than expectations and that has led to yields moving sharply higher. The year is up 9.0 basis points they 10-year is up 8.6 basis points. For the EURUSD it fell to a new low going back to November 2022. The low price reached 1.0212. The 61.8% retracement of

Closing changes for the main European equity markets: Stoxx 600 -0.8% German DAX -0.5% France CAC -0.9% UK FTSE 100 -0.8% Spain IBEX -1.5% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.5% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.7% German DAX +1.6% France CAC +2.0% UK FTSE 100 +0.3% Spain IBEX +0.6% Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.0% The Italy MIB is

The market doesn’t think the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice this year in light of a strong finish to the year for jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and the economy added 256K jobs compared to 160K expected. Market pricing now shows that a May rate cut to a range of

Prior was 74.0 Current conditions 77.9 vs 75.1 prior Expectations 70.2 vs 73.3 prior 1-year inflation 3.3% vs 2.8% prior 5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.0% prior This is another body blow for stocks, those inflation numbers are a problem though they might reflect expectations about tariffs. This matches the highest since 2008. This is an

We can expect more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, in terms of strength, efficiency and timing To speed up fiscal spending in a bid to formulate actual spending China’s fiscal policy has abundant policy room and tools China has relatively big room of raising debt and deficit Once again, this is all very on the

US sanctions more than 180 tankers in Russia’s shadow fleet Sanctions Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas Senior Biden official says he expects sanctions to cost Russia upwards of billions of dollars per month Expects Russia to make every effort to circumvent sanctions but costs of doing so will pile up Sanctions also target dozens of traders,

There are still a couple of question marks about over-indexing on individual jobs months There was a very big jobs growth in private sector retail hiring, is that a sign of a stronger consumer or a one-off? I don’t see the jobs market as a source of inflation Inflation rate in the past six months

Prior 2.6% The Swiss jobless rate held steady in December, although the unadjusted rate did creep up to 2.8% – up from 2.6% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index moved to a low of 19143.64. That was down over 300 points on the day and in the process has moved within a swing area defined by recent swing lows of swing highs between 19119 and 19208 . A move below that area would open the door for further selling technically (see

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Energy stocks rally: Tech and semiconductors face pressure The stock market today exhibits a mixed landscape as a resurgence in energy stocks is contrasted sharply by declines in the technology sector, particularly within semiconductors. Investors and traders at ForexLive should note these sector dynamics when considering future moves in the market. 🌿 Energy Sector: Green

Judge sentence Trump to unconditional discharge over hush money case Imposes no jail or fine but sentence places a judgment of guilt on Pres. Elects record. Justice Juan M. Merchan sentenced Donald J. Trump to an unconditional discharge, a rare and lenient outcome in New York state courts, solidifying his status as a felon before

Headlines: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? It’s all about the US jobs report today Gold eyes fourth straight day of gains with US jobs report in focus Fed’s Musalem pushes caution on further reducing interest rates BOJ reportedly still mulling over January monetary policy decision China vice finance minister says

Bank of America no longer sees the Federal Reserve cutting rates at all in 2025. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China’s December exports are expected to jump from November – beat the tariffs race Some chatter about on the potential for AUD/USD to drop under 0.60 Toyota unions to aim for higher wages, better conditions People’s Bank of China briefing next week – note for the diary PBoC pauses bond buying – more PBOC sets

Although yields have stabilized with the 10 year up 4.7 basis points, stocks continue to come under pressure with the NASDAQ index now down -400 points or -2.05%. The S&P index meanwhile is down -93 point or -1.57%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also lower by -2.10%. With 10 year yields up from 3.60% to

Fundamental Overview Gold made a new weekly high yesterday as the price broke above a key level. We have the US NFP and CPI reports ahead and they are going to move the market a lot so the recent breakout could turn into a fakeout pretty easily. The market’s pricing didn’t change much as roughly

The AUDUSD is breaking below the 2022 and 2024 lows. On the last day of the trading year, the price moved to a low of 0.61785. That was just above October 2022 low and 0.6170. Yesterday, the price moved to 0.6171 but once again found support buyers. Breaking below those level opens the door for

The USDJPY has been trading within a swing area between 157.66 and 158.86. Looking at the daily chart today, the low price came in just below the low of the swing area and 157.62. The high price reached just above the high of the swing area at 158.86. The swing area is wide but traders

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been consolidating around the lows after the quick drop following the FOMC decision in December as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. The Fed continues to place a great deal on inflation progress to proceed with further rate cuts as highlighted by Fed’s Waller this week.

China’s December 2024 trade data is scheduled for release on January 12, 2025, at 10:00 AM China Standard Time: 0300 GMT 2200 US Eastern time on January 11 China’s exports are expected to have expanded at a faster pace in December than in November, with firms hurrying to move inventory to major markets ahead of

S&P 500 futures are down 43 points, or 0.7%, ahead of the open. That’s better than I would have thought given the jump in jobs and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.75%, which is the highest since November 2023. The low of the pre-market came on the release but there has been some dip

Canadian PM Trudeau says ‘we would definitely respond’ if Trump does impose tariffs. says he does not want to see U.S. tariffs and does not want to see Canadian countermeasures. if Trump does impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, ‘everything the American consumers buy from Canada is suddenly going to get a lot more

Interest rate policy may be ‘near’ where it needs to be for the longer run Fed is ‘pretty close’ to meeting both its mandates Inflation moving towards target, growth showing momentum Jobs market weaker but still healthy Optimistic over growth and hiring prospects Optimistic inflation pressures will continue to ease He leans hawkish and he

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been stuck in a big range since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. The Fed continues to place a great deal on inflation progress to proceed with further rate cuts as highlighted by Fed’s Waller this week. Therefore, the market is

Prior month 50.5K Employment Change 90.9K vs 25.0K estimate. 3rd gain in the last 4 months Unemployment Rate 6.7% vs 6.9% estimate. Last month 6.8% Full time employment 57.5K vs 54.2K last month Part time employment 33.5K vs -3.6K last month. Average hourly earnings YoY 3.7% vs 3.9% last month Participation rate 65.1% vs 65.1%

Last month’s decision to cut rates was a “close call” The economic outlook now is much different from when the Fed started cutting rates last year The risk that inflation might get stuck between 2.5% and 3% has increased This matches up with their current policy stance as they are set to pause on cutting

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius spoke on Thursday: forecast a 2.5% growth rate for the US economy in 2025, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.1% attributes this positive outlook to his belief that the Trump administration will face challenges in implementing drastic cuts to immigration or the federal budget More (bolding is mine): Hatzius

Two-month net revision: -8K versus +56K prior Unemployment rate: 4.1% versus 4.2% expected and 4.2% prior Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.0855% vs 4.2457% prior Prior unemployment rate: revised to 4.2% from 4.2% Participation rate: 62.5% versus 62.5% expected U6 underemployment rate: 7.5% versus 7.8% prior Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m versus +0.3% expected and +0.4% prior

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been stuck in a big range since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. The Fed continues to place a great deal on inflation progress to proceed with further rate cuts as highlighted by Fed’s Waller this week. Therefore, the market is waiting

The precious metal is keeping a solid bounce off its 100-day moving average (red line) to start the new year, now trading up to $2,680 this week. A test of the $2,700 level beckons, before potentially revisiting the end-November and December highs around $2,725-26 next. A major positive for gold to start the year is

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: No change to the government’s stance to work closely with the BOJ on policy with an eye on the economy and prices. In deciding whether to declare a full exit from deflation, what’s important is to ensure Japan does not slip back into deflation again. Once we are able to declare

China’s central bank announced on Friday that it will temporarily halt treasury bond purchases due to a shortage of supply, leading to a rise in yields across various maturities. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) stated it would consider resuming bond buying based on supply and demand conditions in the government bond market. This decision

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.6% Italy FTSE MIB flat Meanwhile, US futures are keeping more cautious with S&P 500 futures seen down 0.3% currently. That is setting up for a more tentative and slightly cautious mood overall as the focus turns to the non-farm payrolls

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This follows from the gains yesterday, with US futures also looking fairly cautious ahead of the US jobs report later. That will be the make or break for risk sentiment as we look to wrap up the week. S&P 500 futures are seen currently down 0.4% while

The market came into the year expecting Federal Reserve officials to shift to a less-dovish stance. Deutsche Bank came into the year saying that the Fed wouldn’t cut at all and many were expecting the more-hawkish FOMC members to at least float the idea of a long-lasting trip to the sidelines. Instead, the message has

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

China’s SCIO will hold a press conference on Tuesday, January 14 to discuss the country’s high-quality economic development. event will feature PBOC’s Xuan Changneng (Defuty Governor) and SAFE’s Li Bin (Deputy chief) will address financial support for economic development Scheduled for 1500 China time: 0700 GMT 0200 US Eastern time That alphabet soup: SCIO =

The European session is basically empty on the data front today. The focus is on the US NFP report as it’s going to be a market moving release, although the US CPI next week should have a bigger influence on the interest rate expectations given that the Fed is placing a great deal on further

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Previously only Commonwealth Bank of Australia were tipping February, ANZ jump on board now. ANZ expects a 25bp interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia February meeting due to weaker inflation figures in Q4 ANZ forecasts trimmed mean inflation to print at 0.5% q/q in the Q4 data due this month – this

It’s a quiet data agenda ahead for the Asia session. Most will be awaiitng the US NFP report at 8.30 am US Eastern time. Household spending data from Japan will be of some interest. I’ll have more to come on this separately This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times

The background to expected further AUD weakness is: declining inflation measures published earlier this week, with more CPI data due on January 29 (Q4) weak retail sales data expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February (meeting is on the 17th and 18th) concerns over U.S. tariffs under

Both the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices closed down by 1.3% today and that makes it back-to-back weekly losses for major indices in China. The drop today erases the gains from earlier in the week and pours cold water on any hopes of a recovery in sentiment to start the new year: The bounce

The trend is clear in that the US labour market has been softening after a robust rebound in the post-Covid era. That is to be expected but we’re now approaching the stage in which market players had been expecting this to lead to a soft landing in the US economy since last year. Instead, the

PBOC temporarily halts government bond purchases in the open market starting January 2025 amid supply shortages, with resumption tied to market conditions. Hmmmm. Chinese bonds have been bid, PBoC probably not wanting to fuel that even more? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Sunday evening (January 12, 2025) US Eastern time at 2215, ECB board member Philip Lane will speak as part of a “policy dialogue” at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025, being held in Hong Kong. With monetary policy expected to turn more accommodative globally, policymakers may find themselves at a unique juncture to implement

The Federation of All Toyota Workers’ Unions has announced that it will seek greater improvements in wages and working conditions during this year’s wage negotiations compared to last year. The Bank of Japan is looking for workers to get higher wages and thus buy more and support inflation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Fed’s Schmid: We won’t likely get to 2% inflation until 2026 Fed’s Bowman: The Fed should be cautious in considering changes to policy rate Fed’s Schmid: Any further rate cuts should be gradual and data driven Why the Fed won’t pivot to neutral any time soon European equity close: Third gain in four days BOE’s

The December 2024 employment report is due from the US on Friday, January 10, 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is

Australian household spending in November 2024: +0.4% m/m expected +0.7%, prior +0.8% +2.4% y/y expected +2.5%, prior +2.8% Both m/m and y/y have missed. Earlier: Potential Interest Rate Cut in Australia: Analysts Divided AUD/USD little changed on the session so far; This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Politico have a good info piece up if you are interested: Donald Trump’s gambit to buy Greenland may sound ridiculous, but it’s not impossible. Its worth checking out in full, there are some interesting precedents and nuances. But, if you prefer, in summary: Buy Greenland: Trump could attempt to purchase Greenland if it declares independence

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Goldman Sachs has issued a cautionary note about the sustainability of the recent stock market rally. Strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned in a client memo that equities appear “priced for perfection,” leaving them increasingly susceptible to a correction. Rising bond yields, high valuations, and economic uncertainties could weigh on the market’s resilience, he noted. While Oppenheimer

Japan November Household Spending 0.4% m/m expected -0.9%, prior 2.9% -0.4% y/y expected -0.6%, prior -1.3% USD/JPY update, flatlining during the US afternoon holiday: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is a (quite high) degree of wishful thinking doing the rounds in Australia regarding the potential for a February interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The context is that the Bank has held the cash rate at 4.35% for 13 consecutive months. Reports about the place highlight that while one of

Standard Chartered consider Chinese equities a core holding. But, Chinese stocks are not without their problems currently. China grapples with deflationary pressures China is expected to counteract U.S. import restrictions by boosting exports to non-U.S. markets Additional stimulus measures are expected in order to drive domestic demand Stan Chart favours onshore equities over offshore ones,

The cryptocurrency market continues to experience a steep downtrend, marking its third consecutive day of losses. Bitcoin (BTCUSD), the market leader, has fallen approximately 12% over this period, crossing below a critical support level not breached in the last 50 days. The current trading range of $89,500 to $90,000 is pivotal, and analysts suggest a

EUR/USD Trade Idea: Fade the Rally Strategy The EUR/USD futures market is showing persistent bearish pressure as it trades near 1.03305, as this EURUSD analysis shows, with key resistance levels above and bearish momentum evident in the long-term performance. This creates an opportunity to fade any potential rally into key resistance zones for a short

The last stage to 2% inflation could be the most-challenging This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The topic of this speech was “Reflections on 2024: Monetary policy, economic performance, and lessons for banking regulation”. Supported December cut as a ‘final step’ in policy recalibration Says she could have supported no action in December, given lack of progress on inflation and strength in economy Prefers a cautious, gradual approach to adjusting policy

Prior -1.0%; revised to -0.4% That’s a positive rebound after the fall in output in October, with production of capital goods seen up 1.4%, consumer goods up 0.9%, and intermediate goods up 0.5% on the month. Even for energy-intensive industries, production there was seen up by 1.5% on the month. But compared to the same

Closing changes for the day: Stoxx 600 +0.4% German DAX flat France CAC +0.5% UK FTSE 100 +0.8% Spain IBEX +0.9% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% It’s been a good week in Europe despite the turmoil in the US. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer and producer inflation data from China for December 2024 PPI remains in deflation and CPI barely avoids it. Pretty much as expected from China. The People’s Bank of China is wary of providing too much stimulus, such as a rate cut, due to financial stability and yuan weakness concerns. A political consideration now is

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures +0.2% US futures are lower but keep in mind that the cash market won’t be trading today in Wall Street. That will leave European traders to their own devices, following the mixed showing in US indices yesterday. Tech shares were the laggard, so that is again keeping the

The USDCAD sellers had a shot earlier this week with breaks outside an up-and-down “Red Box” to the downside. The first move was on Monday. The 2nd on Tuesday. Each failed on the break The sellers had their shot. They missed. The price rise saw the pair’s price move above the 100 and 200 hour

In the European session, the only highlight is the Eurozone Retail Sales data although it isn’t a market moving release in general. In the American session, we don’t have much on the agenda so the focus will be on the Fed officials with five of them scheduled to speak today. As a reminder, the stock

It should be a quieter day in US markets today because of the stock market closure for Jimmy Carter’s funeral. That gives me a chance to revisit one of the most-memorable financial markets TV appearances of last year. The date was September 26 and the guest was Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper. Since inception, he’s

The comments today from Waller indicate that he still sees inflation falling to 2%. That’s not the kind of thing you hear before a central bank moves to neutral. The FOMC Minutes should offer more clarity on when officials will truly consider cutting rates again. The January 29 meeting won’t be that date with the

Current outlook calls for gradual, patient approach to rate cuts. Supported December Fed rate cut but was a close call. Fed not on preset path, policy well-positioned. Current outlook in line with Fed December forecasts. Economy in a ‘good place overall’ with notable uncertainties. Too soon to say what impact election will have on economy.

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost recently from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much though and Fed’s Waller yesterday kept the rate cuts

Russia says that Putin would most definitely welcome the idea of communicating with incoming US president Trump. However, there haven’t been any requests to do so for now. The Kremlin adds that it would be more appropriate to wait for Trump to take office first. Well, this is certainly one area that will garner more

A note from JPM last week argued that the dollar could keep rising, but also that its stretched and further gains are likely limited. It a conundrum, we await the straw hitting the camels back to break this trend. Summary of the note below, with various factors of influence I’m sure you’ll be familiar with.

This accompanies the regional economic assessment from earlier here. The BOJ says that while firms are seeing the need to stick to wage hikes, they are yet to decide on how much they would have to raise pay for this year. On the flip side though, some smaller firms are reserving caution due to the

This is a notable comments as Breeden voted with the 6-3 majority to keep rates unchanged at 4.75% in December. The market is pricing in a 65% chance of a cut on February 6 but that’s looking too low. I think one of the better trades of 2025 will be a ‘catch-down’ trade in the

The USDCHF is trading in a narrow range today (only 33 pips). However, the buyers remain in control after the bounce off support on Monday and gains over the last few days. The price had moved back into a swing area on the daily chart between 0.9112 and 0.9156. That area will need to be

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost recently from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much though and Fed’s Waller yesterday kept the rate cuts

Labor markets stabilized, are in a better place Job creation pace has normalized Fed has had success getting inflation down from peak Harker is scheduled for retirement in June and right now the market isn’t quite certain on whether or not there will be another cut before he gets to the exit. In any case,

Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.3% Euro area retail sales were only marginally higher on the month, though it isn’t immediately clear how much of this captures the sales from Black Friday and Cyber Monday. If it doesn’t, then that’s a poor showing and reaffirms softer household spending towards the end of last year. Here’s the

Meanwhile, the bond market will only be open until 1400 ET. Eamonn has the full list of market closures in the US here. Despite it being a market holiday of sorts, I would expect major currencies to stay active at least. And in terms of economic releases, we will still be getting the usual Challenger

The British Pound is extending the selloff that started yesterday and remains a significant underperformer among the majors. There was no fundamental catalyst behind the selloff. It was a technical one. Yesterday around noon, the UK 10Y yield made a new cycle high which increased the bearish momentum in the bond market. The British Pound

Fed can stay where it is for a little bit and let the data play out The comments from Fed officials this week have been more-dovish than many though, especially from Waller yesterday. I will have more thoughts on why that is later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The United States is holding a national day of mourning for Jimmy Carter today following his December 29 death. That’s led to a re-write of the economic calendar with the bond auction scheduled for today moved up and economic data released adjusted. SIFMA recommends an early close to fixed income trading at 2 pm ET

The US is observing a national day of mourning as former Pres. Jimmy Carter’s layed to rest. The New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Exchange will be close but the futures are open as is the US bond market. In US futures trading, the S&P futures are impying a move down -5 points. The

Well, they’re not wrong I suppose but there are domestic factors that have driven the rise in UK bond yields as well. The latest budget being of course one that market players are much alluding to. The high for 10-year gilt yields this week was 4.92% but even now at 4.83%, it is still at

Outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from UBS. Analysts at the bank argue that the December labor report, set to be released this Friday, and next week’s inflation data will offer further insights into the U.S. economy. Although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates at its early 2025 policy meetings,

The pound is once again the laggard in trading today and that is dragging GBP/USD down to test the low from April last year. The low then was seen at 1.2299 and that is precisely where we are at right now. Back then, price was somewhat defended by its 100-week moving average but we have

Prior €13.4 billion The German trade surplus picked up in November as exports were seen up by 2.2% on the month while imports are down by 3.3% on the month. Looking at the details, most German exports were to the US in November (€14.0 billion). Meanwhile, most imports were from China (€13.4 billion) even if

On January 9, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed to honour former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Reminder: NYSE, NASDAQ closed. CME hours impacted also. Bonds half day. Plenty coming up from the Fed according to the calendar I have seen.Some, or all, of thee may be rescheduled, but just

Yesterday I highlighted that bitcoin has held $92,000 (or near that level) on six separate occasions since breaking above $100,000 for the first time. Another test is unfolding now with it trading perilously close to that level and at the lows of the day. We’ve already broken yesterday’s low of $92,724 and that triggered some

Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman looks at the trashing of US bond prices, writing in a post titled: “Is There an Insanity Premium on Interest Rates?” “increases in long-term rates, like the 10-year Treasury rate, might reflect the horrible, creeping suspicion that Donald Trump actually believes the crazy things he says about economic policy and will

The regions that saw their assessment raised were Tohoku and Hokuriku. Meanwhile, the BOJ maintains the assessment for the other seven regions as seen above. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: The British Pound extends the selloff Reminder: It is a pseudo market holiday in the US today Weekly update on interest rate expectations Eurozone November retail sales +0.1% vs +0.4% m/m expected Germany November trade balance €19.7 billion vs €14.8 billion expected Germany November industrial production +1.5% vs +0.5% m/m expected Bavaria December CPI

Bitcoin Analysis for Today: Key Levels to Watch As of this analysis, Bitcoin Futures are trading at 94,685, offering a pivotal setup for traders and investors looking for directional opportunities. The price is consolidating around significant levels, and today’s movements may present actionable trades based on how Bitcoin interacts with key zones outlined below. Bullish

As financial markets head into 2025, traders face a landscape shaped by evolving macroeconomic trends, rising commodity demand, and Southeast Asia’s economic acceleration. With insights from Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, this article highlights key trading trends to watch in 2025, helping market participants navigate new opportunities and challenges with

easyMarkets, a leading CFD and Forex broker, is proud to announce that it has been recognised as “Best Fixed Spread Forex Broker” at the 2024 SmartVision Investment Summit in Egypt. This new achievement highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to providing traders with transparent, reliable and innovative trading solutions, including its signature tight fixed spreads. The

Prior 57.73k The headline figure is 11.4% higher than what is was in December a year ago. That brings the total number of job cuts for 2024 to 761,358 and that is markedly higher than the 2023 figure of 721,677 layoffs. If you exclude the blip during Covid in 2020, this will be the highest

I posted on this back on Monday this week: PBOC is set to issue a record volume of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month aiming to stabilize the yuan’s exchange rate amid growing pressures. Issuing offshore yuan bills is a strategy for absorbing excess liquidity in the offshore market, reducing downward pressure on

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures Analysis (January 9, 2025) Current NQ Market Overview Bearish Bias: Price is currently near 21,250, below the critical bearish threshold of 21,293. As long as price remains below this level, the bearish scenario is in control. Bullish Trigger: Bulls need to reclaim 21,293 minimum but moreso, 21,310 to shift the bias

EURUSD Analysis: Key Levels and Price Outlook The Euro FX futures (EUR/USD) are trading at 1.03280, maintaining a bearish bias as technical indicators on the daily chart signal selling pressure. This analysis highlights critical support and resistance levels and potential trading scenarios for EUR/USD traders. Bearish Outlook for EUR/USD 20 EMA Acting as ResistanceThe downward-sloping

HSBC Global Research has upgraded its outlook for Hong Kong stocks to “Overweight” and raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) from 23,420 to 23,870. The report highlights an improved economic outlook for China, with recent policy shifts signaling the central government’s commitment to stabilizing the economy, which is positive for the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

On January 9, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed to honor former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. The CME is more complicated. In brief: Agricultural and Interest Rate Markets: Closing early at 12:15 p.m. Central Time (CT). BrokerTec U.S. Repo and Treasury Products: Early closures at 2:30 p.m. CT and

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost recently from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much though and Fed’s Waller yesterday kept the rate cuts

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 40 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 97 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 47 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 63 bps (68% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 76 bps

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI 2.4% vs 1.9% y/y prior Hesse CPI 2.4% vs 2.0% y/y prior Saxony CPI 3.2% vs 2.9% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI 2.5% vs 1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI 2.6% vs 2.2% y/y prior We already got the December German CPI data

The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents shipping companies, announced a tentative six-year agreement that still must be ratified by union members. Info via Axios. This looks like it’ll avoid a work stoppage that would have hit ports that account for around half of all containers into and out

Recent: October 2024: Retail turnover increased by 0.6% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of growth. For November, preliminary reports indicates spending of nearly $7 billion during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. Factors Influencing November’s Data: Consumer Behavior: The lead-up to the festive season typically boosts retail sales. Early holiday shopping and promotional events

European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone reported in Corriere della Sera (an Italian daily newspaper) Article is here (in Italian). My poor translation and summary (Google wouldn’t help out!) … if I got it wrong let me know in the comments (in English or Australian please 😉 ) Structural Crisis in European Industry: Europe

The major US indices are ending the day mixed with the Dow and S&P higher, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 lower. Trading conditions were up and down volatile. Tomorrow the stock markets will be close in respect to former Pres. Jimmy Carter’s funeral. That will lead into the US jobs report on Friday. The

Participants indicated if data came in about as expected, it would be appropriate to continue to move gradually toward a more-neutral stance Participants indicated Fed was at or near point at which it would be appropriate to slow pace of easing Most see risks to employment and inflation goals as “roughly balanced” “Almost all” participants

US initial jobless claims 201K vs 218K estimate US December ADP employment +122K vs +140K expected FOMC Minutes: Participants saw gradual move to more-neutral stance if data as expected Fed’s Waller: Will support further cuts in 2025 but pace will depend on inflation progress More from Waller: Some of ongoing services inflation may represent lagged

Japanese workers’ base salaries saw their largest increase in 32 years, Japan wages data: Inflation adjusted real wages -0.3% y/y potentially paving the way for the central bank to raise interest rates this month, provided other data confirm a strengthening economic cycle. The labor ministry reported that base salaries rose 2.7% in November compared to

Prior month $19.24 billion revised to $17.32 billion Consumer credit $-7.49 billion versus expected plus $12.5 billion Revolving credit $-13.726 billion versus plus $15.151 billion last month Non revolving credit $6.237 versus $2.167 billion last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese wages data for November 2024 Total cash earnings +3.0% y/y expected +2.7%, prior +2.2% Overtime pay +1.6% y/y prior +0.7% Base salary, or regular pay, rose 2.7% in November fastest increase since 1992 As noted in the headline, inflation-adjusted real wages fell in November, down 0.3% prior -0.4% for the fourth straight month This

There are quite a few to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD with the big one to take at the 1.0300 level. That could very well act as a magnet for price action in the session ahead, before we get to US trading at least. Then, the ones at

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Analysis: Key Price Levels for January 9th, 2025 This article provides a focused analysis of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES), highlighting key levels and zones to help traders navigate today’s market. The guidance includes bullish and bearish thresholds, profit-taking targets, and an orientation on the significance of these levels based

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.