The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.0% from 3.25%. The full statement says: The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization […]

The Canadian dollar is facing some big headwinds in the next few days. Up first is today’s Bank of Canada decision. The market is fully priced for a rate cut today and there is some talk about a surprise 50 bps move, though that’s an extreme outlier from my perspective. I expect the Bank of

The USD is up mostly in early trading with the greenback up the most vs the AUD (+0.51%) and the NZD (up 0.42%). The greenback is modestly lower vs JPY, but off session lows. In Australia overnight, CPI came in lower than expected sending the AUDUSD lower (USD higher): Headline CPI: +2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%,

The USDCAD attempted to break above the critical “red box” resistance area, previously identified as a key zone to clear and sustain. While the pair briefly surpassed the upper limit of 1.4466 ahead of the rate decision, it only reached 1.4464 before reversing downward. Early comments from Tiff Macklem have bolstered CAD strength, contributing to

I flagged that there was going to be a drop in this tracker due to soft inventory and trade data today and now we get the numbers as it’s cut to 2.3% from 3.2%. The Atlanta Fed said: “After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real

The December meeting was a bit of a dud. The BoJ hiked rates in January. This is from the minutes of the December meeting, in brief. This summary highlights the BoJ’s cautious stance on rate hikes, concerns about inflation persistence, and the impact of global uncertainties on Japan’s economy. The bank overcame such caution at

The movement in the Canadian dollar hasn’t constrained us so far The depreciation in the loonie so far has been more-driven by trade uncertainty This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview: Technology and Consumer Cyclical Technology Sector: The technology sector sees notable declines, led by Nvidia (NVDA) which drops by 2.01%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) also face downturns, down 0.76% and 1.37% respectively. This suggests cautious investor sentiment amid recent market developments. Consumer Cyclical Sector: Conversely, the consumer cyclical sector shows resilience. Amazon

The Financial Times reports that OpenAI has found evidence that the Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek used the company’s proprietary models to train its own open-source model. OpenAI said that it has seen some evidence of “distillation” which is a technique used by developers to obtain better performance on smaller models by using outputs from the

The US dollar is at the best levels of the day as North American traders greet a double-day of central bank decisions. First up is the Bank of Canada at 9:45 am ET and then at 2 pm ET we get the FOMC. The dollar bid undoubtedly highlights some angst about tariffs as the White

Reserve Bank of New Zealand chief economist Conway Without future shocks, the OCR will tend towards the neutral interest rate. With declining inward migration and weak productivity growth, potential output growth is likely to be modest. The long-term nominal neutral interest rate currently lies between 2.5% and 3.5%. The Monetary Policy Committee is confident that

A 25 basis point cut was 99% priced in Overnight rate at 3.00% vs 3.25% prior Prior to the BOC, the market was pricing in 68.5 bps in easing in 2025 (67.6 bps after the announcement) BOC announces the end of quantitative tightening Will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its

This week, China and the world will celebrate the coming of the Year of the Wood Snake. According to Chinese tradition, the snake represents intelligence and transformation. It is often a symbol of mystery and wisdom. Wood adds the qualities of growth and flexibility. Perfect timing! Today, these qualities are more relevant than ever to

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is set to speak momentarily but the BOC has already published his opening statement. It highlights a stance that’s more-neutral than the market anticipated. “Absent the threat of tariffs, the risks to the inflation outlook are roughly balanced,” Macklem says. Now the tariffs are a huge asterisk but there

The Bank of Canada had flagged in its December statement that it was likely to revise down 2025 GDP forecasts. Canadian forecasts compared to October: 2025 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.8% from 2.1% Q4 2024 GDP growth trimmed to 1.8% from 2.0% CPI inflation revised up for 2024 annual (2.4% vs 2.3%) Core inflation

The NASDAQ index is trading lower in early trading with the index now down -87 points or -0.45% at 19643.49. The S&P is also lower by 13.6 points or -0.22% at 6053.98. The Dow industrial average is higher by 60 points or 0.13% at 44912. After the close Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla will all report

Commerzbank raised its gold price forecast for the end of Q1 2025 to $2,700 per troy ounce (previously $2,600). In terms of year-end forecast, “we continue to expect a gold price of $2,650 per troy ounce.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Australian inflation data was encouraging: Australian Q4 2024 inflation headline 2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%) AUD/USD has dropped after the better than expected Q4 inflation data from Australi Where we are at: Inflation slows significantly: Consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in almost four years in Q4 2024. Market expectations for rate cuts: Markets

EUR/USD 1.0300 (EUR1.76bn) 1.0500 (EUR1.25bn) 1.0600 (EUR1.05bn) USD/JPY 155.00 (US$1.39bn) 148.00 (US$930mn) USD/CAD 1.4500 (US$1.29bn) 1.4190 (US$414mn) AUD/USD: 0.6220 (AUD580mn) 0.6350 (AUD441mn) USD/CNY 7.2800 (US$600m) NZD/USD 0.5625 (NZD320mn) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.2% Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.5% prior This is a big input for Q4 GDP. The first look at that report is coming up on Thursday and I’d expect the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker to be revised down later today on this. It’s currently at 3.2%. This article was written by Adam

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 24 January -2.0% vs +0.1% prior UK’s Reeves: We begun to turn things around Italy January consumer confidence 98.2 vs 96.0 expected Eurozone December M3 money supply +3.5% vs +3.8% y/y expected European stocks mostly positive to kick off the session Spain Q4 preliminary GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% q/q expected

The Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) of the United Arab Emirates has awarded Kama Capital the prestigious Category 1 licence. This achievement positions Kama Capital as a key player in the trading industry, providing it with the regulatory framework to expand its presence, scale its operations, and fulfill its mission to create advanced, high-tech, AI-driven

Prior was 96.3 Business Confidence 86.8 vs 85.5 expected and 85.9 prior ISTAT comment: “In January 2025, the business confidence index rose for the second consecutive month, returning for the first time to the level estimated at April 2024. The increase in the indicator is driven by the manufacturing sector and, above all, by the

We begun to turn things around. UK regulation has been stifling and unpredictable. The solution is government systematically removing barriers. Looking forward to work with the new US Treasury Secretary and deepen relationships with the US. We need to remove constraints on the UK economy’s supply side. Fiscal rules will always be met. We will

TradeCompass: Nasdaq Price Prediction and Futures Analysis for Today (January 29, 2025) At the time of this Nasdaq futures analysis, NQ is trading at 21,559. Below is the detailed breakdown of today’s bullish and bearish scenarios for Nasdaq futures, aligned with the TradeCompass methodology. Bearish Scenario for Nasdaq Futures Today We turn bearish if the

The US decided it wasn’t going to win on autos so it closed the market. DeepSeek is open source so it can be run without sharing any info with anyone. It won’t matter though if it’s a threat to US tech dominance. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Google vs. Microsoft: Who’s Stronger by Orderflow Intel? 🔥 As we head into earnings season, all eyes are on the mega-cap tech giants—and two names stand out: Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT). While traditional analysts focus on revenue forecasts, profit margins, and guidance, we’re bringing you something entirely unique—a head-to-head showdown through deep Orderflow analysis.

The US treasury will auction off $44 billion of 7-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction will complete the coupon issuances for the week ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow at 2 PM. The FOMC is scheduled to keep rates unchanged after moving them lower by 100 basis points in 2024. The

The dip buyers in the Nasdaq have been steadily accumulating since early in the trading day. Initially, the Nasdaq fell into negative territory at the open as Nvidia went red but the chipmaker is now up 7.7% and the index is now 2% higher. Apple and Meta are also big winners today. After the washout

While the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting would typically be the main event of the week, Deutsche Bank economists anticipate a relatively uneventful outcome, with no rate change and limited forward guidance. According to their preview, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may avoid explicitly ruling out a rate cut in March, as he did last January. However,

Today, Unitree debuted the H1 “Fuxi” robot at the Spring Festival Gala as this was broadcast on CCTV. It’s tough to tell how amazing these really are but I met the previous generation with the hand-shaking robot and the dog in Dubai this month and they were impressive. This model has been demoed in various

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the December 2024 meeting, which was a bit of a placeholder meeting. The ‘Summary’ of this meeting was released on December 26: BoJ December 2024 Summary of Opinions – ‘Gradual increase in CPI’ The Australian CPI for Q4 2024 is the focus, previewed here: Critical Australian inflation data

Australian CPI data is due today, for December month 2024 and, more importantly, for Q4 2024. Overall, while headline inflation appears to be within the RBA’s target range, underlying measures remain slightly elevated. Some analyst comments: Westpac anticipates a quarterly CPI increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 2.5%. Their trimmed mean estimate is

Fundamental Overview The USD got boosted once again by negative tariffs news yesterday as Bessent talked about universal tariffs starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing by the same amount every month, which eventually could reach 20%. Trump later doubled down on that saying that he wants tariffs much bigger than 2.5%. The tariffs risk has

US January consumer confidence 104.1 vs 105.6 expected US December durable goods orders -2.2% vs +0.6% expected US November CaseShiller house price index +4.3% vs +4.3% y/y expected Richmond Fed composite index for January -4 versus -13 estimate A rate cut is 99% priced in for Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting. Bigger questions loom White

The European session will once aga just a couple of non market moving releases. The focus today is on the BoC and FOMC policy decisions. 14:45 GMT/09:45 ET – Bank of Canada Policy Decision The BoC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and bringing the policy rate to 3.00%. As a reminder,

Prior was +0.8% GDP Q4 Y/Y +3.5% vs 3.2% prior. “Gross Domestic Product (GDP), measured in terms of volume, increased by 0.8 per cent in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. This rate was similar to that of the third quarter of 2024. Domestic demand contributed 1.2 points to quarterly GDP growth. For its

Prior was +3.8% Loans to Households Y/Y 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected and 0.9% prior. Loans to Companies Y/Y 1.5% vs. 1.0% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

If I was at the Bank of Canada here is what the statement on Wednesday would say: We’re cutting rates by 25 basis points today and what we do next will depend on tariffs between now and our next decision on March 12 decision. There is nothing more to say than that. The overnight rate

Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to begin cutting interest rates in February, following a softer-than-anticipated Q4 2024 inflation report. The bank argues that while monetary policy decisions typically rely on a broad range of data, this time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been the decisive factor given mixed signals from

Commonwealth Bank of Australia were already foreecasting an RBA February rate cut. The CPI data published data have further convinced them of that call. But it’ll be a slow rate reduction path after that. In summAry from the bank’s note after the data: The headline CPI rose by 0.2%/qtr in Q4 24 and the annual

Inflation data from Australia for the October- December quarter and for December month, 2024. Headline inflation numbers come in lower than expected. +2.4% y/y expected 2.5%, prior 2.8% +0.2% q/q expected 0.3%, prior 0.2% Trimmed mean (a measure of core, or underlying inflation) 3.2% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.5% 0.5% q/q expected 0.6%, prior 0.8%

Bets on a February RBA rate cut are solidfying after the inflation data earlier FX option expiries for Wednesday, January 29, 2025, 10am New York cut Goldman Sachs expects 6 Bank of England interest rate cuts by mid-2026 Euro may see a slight uptick if the European Central Bank is cautious this week Westpac changes

The Chinese tech company Alibaba released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 artificial intelligence model that it claims surpassed the highly-acclaimed DeepSeek-V3 model. Alibaba said in an announcement posted on its official WeChat account that Qwen 2.5-Max outperforms almost across the board GPT-4o, DeepSeek-V3 and Llama-3.1-405B. DeepSeek’s rise spurred competition both in foreign and

Futures contracts have fixed expiration dates, meaning traders must transition to the next active contract periodically. This rollover process ensures that market participants are trading in the most liquid and efficient market. Below are the key reasons why futures contracts roll over and why they cannot remain the same indefinitely. 1. Futures Contracts Expire for

Australian Treasurer Chalmers: the soft landing we have been planning and preparing for is looking more and more likely the worst of the inflation challenge is well and truly behind us Chalmers wants the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates before the election due on May. He’s panting for it. This article was

Honda plans to introduce a small electric vehicle priced under $30,000 by 2026, according to Nikkei. The affordable EV will be part of Honda’s upcoming “Honda 0 Series” and is expected to be produced locally. However, while Honda aims to offer a budget-friendly EV, a company spokesperson clarified that no final decision has been made

Google reclassifies U.S. as ‘sensitive country’ alongside China, Russia after Trump’s ‘Gulf of America’ comments CNBC with the report: Google’s maps division on Monday reclassified the U.S. as a “sensitive country,” a designation it reserves for states with strict governments and border disputes, CNBC has learned. The decision to elevate the U.S. to its list

The data is here, mainly lower than Q3, lower than market expectations, and lower than RBA projections. Australian Q4 2024 inflation headline 2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%) A very satisfactory trifecta indeed. Australian government subsidies helped put a lid on costs. Nevertheless, a slowdown in core inflation is fuelling speculation of a cut in interest rates

The Bank of Japan is already on a rate normalisation path: BoJ Rate Hike May Move Closer: Analysis & Outlook There is a vacancy to be filled on the policy board. Prime Minister Ishiba has nominated Junko Koeda, a Waseda University professor, according to a document released to reporters in parliament in Tokyo on Tuesday.

The major US indices – led by the broader indices – closed solidly higher after sharp declines yesterday. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average rose 138.77 points or 0.31% at 44850.35. Yesterday the index rose 0.65% despite the sharp falls in the broader indices S&P rose 55.42 points ro 0.92% to 6067.70 a

Analysts at Goldman Sachs say that while inflation pressures are currently high they are seeing indications that the outlook for UK CPI over the medium term is looking softer, citing: growth has weakened markedly, and GS expect this to continue, forecasting only 0.9% growth for 2025 household real disposable income growth likely to slow rising

more to come — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +3.2 mn barrels Distillates -2.3 mn bbls Gasoline +1.3 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Bitcoin Futures (BTC) Daily Order Flow Analysis – AI Prediction for January 29, 2025 AI Prediction Score: -3 (Moderate Bearish Bias) Deep Analysis of Bitcoin Futures on the Daily Timeframe 1. Weak Buying Strength in the Last Two Sessions (Jan 27-28) Jan 27: Buyers showed mild interest with a positive Delta of +163 and a

High yield 4.457% WI level at the time of the auction 4.466% Tail:-0.9 basis points versus 6–month average of -1.0 basis points Bid to Cover: 2.64X vs. six-month average of 2.66X DIrects (Domestic demand): 23.06% vs 6-month average of 16.3% Indirects (international demand): 67.08% vs 6-month avearage of 74.0% Dealers (they take the rest): 9.86x%

CNBC carried the report, in brief: The U.S. Navy issued a warning to its members to avoid using DeepSeek “in any capacity,” due to “potential security and ethical concerns.” The warning was sent out on Friday as buzz about the Chinese artificial intelligence startup was picking up across the tech industry. The email instructed all

The euro may see a slight uptick if the European Central Bank takes a cautious stance on rate cuts during Thursday’s meeting, according to a note from Bank of America analysts. “The market is already pricing two cuts for the next two meetings, and the ECB is unlikely to commit to more cuts beyond that

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

While the stocks continue to push higher, the USD is more stuck. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved below the 100 hour MA (at 1.04473)and swing area (1.0448 to 1.0461) in the Asian session and remains below those levels. The next key target comes in at the 50% of the move down from the December high at

Anyone who is watching AI closely is worried about the future because it will bring massive disruption in the jobs market, particularly if AI unlocks robotic workers, which I believe it will. Now I’m normally an optimist but I’m having a hard time figuring out how this ends well for most workers. Here is a

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on January 28, up from 3.0 percent on January 17. We are quickly approaching the first look at Q4 GDP. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower with the overall USD buying after the tariff talks from Pres. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent. The price decline in the early Asian session took the price away from the swing area between 0.62874 to 0.63016, below the 100-hour MA at 0.6283 and to the 200-hour MA. Some buying at the

Cooler heads are having a re-think on DeepSeek today. That’s helped Nvidia shares to bounce by 2.6%. The market also continues to be upbeat around the idea of certain winners related to cheaper AI as Apple rebounds and Amazon extends. There are also some earnings-related gainers near the top of the S&P 500 chart with

Bitcoin’s price experienced a sharp decline on Sunday due to “risk-off” sentiment, pushing the digital currency lower. The price dropped to a low near $97,750, aligning closely with the upper boundary of a key support zone between $97,319 and $97,750 (highlighted in yellow on the chart). Holding within this range provided some support, and while

The broader stock indices have extended to new session highs and continue to retrace some of the declines seen yesterday. The S&P index fell -1.46% yesterday. It is currently up 47.06 points or 0.78% in trading today. The NASDAQ index tumble by -3.07% yesterday. It is currently up 333 points or 1.72%. So although the

Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Map Analysis & Potential Next Move Key Observations from the Chart Current BTC Price: 102,566 USDT Price is currently sitting below a large cluster of short liquidations around 103,000 USDT. This means if price moves above 103,000, a short squeeze could trigger a rapid push higher. Major Liquidation Clusters Short Liquidations (Bullish

15 consecutive negative numbers for the Richmond Fed Prior month -10 Composite index -4 vs -13 estimate Services index 4 vs 23 last month Manufacturing shipments -9 vs -11 last month Employment 3 vs -8 last month New Orders -4 vs -11 last month Prices Paid 2.37 vs 2.86 last month Prices received 1.21 vs

Fundamental Overview Crude oil erased all the gains since the breakout of the two-month range as tariffs threats and Trump’s pledge to increase production weighed on the market. The geopolitical risk premium has also been easing with a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and positive headlines on potential deal in the Russian-Ukraine war coming in

I don’t expect the market to stray from its focus on AI and tech companies this week but there is an FOMC decision coming and we get some economic data today. At the bottom of the hour we get December durable goods orders, which are expected up 0.6%. The main line to watch is on

Prior was +4.2% Month-over-month +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Separate house price data from the FHFA: Year-over-year +4.2% vs +4.5% expected Month-over-month +0.3% vs +0.4% expected US home sales numbers in the final months of the year were stronger than you would expect given high mortgage rates. That said, 7% mortgages are a real headwind. This

The Globe & Mail reports that Canada’s federal government is planning a covid-style relief effort if Trump imposes 25% tariffs. The moves would require a parliamentary vote so they’re far from certain. All opposition parties have pledged to oust the government and the ruling Liberal’s don’t have a majority. Any stimulus would require the support

Nvidia was up by 5% at the pre-market highs but it wasn’t able to open near the highs and has continued lower since the open. I expect that some of that is fallout from yesterday’s blow up as it will take some time to balance out the market. Technically, yesterday’s late low of $116.70 is

The USD/CHF has nearly reversed the decline from yesterday’s high of 0.90725, with today’s high reaching 0.90704. Yesterday’s drop took the pair down to the 50% retracement level of the range since the December 6 low, which is at 0.89655. The low price of 0.89645 marked a bounce back to the upside. Today, the price

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 -0.3% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are also reflecting a mixed picture but perhaps more importantly, tech shares are keeping much steadier. Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% while Dow futures are down 0.2%. That is seeing S&P 500 futures keep

Prior 89 French household confidence rebounded to start the year, helped by easing of fears on unemployment. It is still keeping well below the long-term average of 100 though, so that continues to reflect softer sentiment as a whole for now. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -1.2% (revised to -2.0%) Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.3% expected Prior nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.7% (revised to +0.9%) Ex transport +0.3% vs +0.4% expected Ex defense -2.4% vs -0.3% expected The headline is soft but it looks like it was driven by weak defense orders. The line to

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to pull back from the all-time highs although it’s not clear what has been driving it in the past few days. Despite lower real yields and a weaker US Dollar, gold couldn’t catch a strong bid to make a new all-time high. The market might be waiting for a stronger catalyst

TradeCompass for Ethereum Futures: Price Prediction and Analysis Ethereum futures are trading at $3,192, and today’s analysis provides a simple strategy to navigate the market. Whether you’re looking for bullish or bearish opportunities, this article highlights key levels, price targets, and risk management techniques. Let’s dive into the Ethereum price prediction and the trading roadmap.

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.4% German DAX +0.7% Francis CAC flat UK’s FTSE 100 +0.4% Spain’s IBEX +1.4% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% With enough efficiency in AI, Germany might be able to afford to power the grid. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Honda plans to launch a small electric vehicle priced below $30,000 in North America by as early as 2026, Nikkei reported earlier today. That’s hardly a ‘DeepSeek moment’ for the automotive industry as the Honda Civic starts at $24,250 in the US. A real gamebreaker would be something like the BYD Dolphin, which is selling

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway is speaking on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am New Zealand time: 2200 GMT 1700 US Eastern time The topic is: Beyond the Cycle: Growth and interest rates in the long run: The speech looks beyond the business cycle to explore New Zealand’s longer-term economic

Veles, a trusted platform for algorithmic trading, has introduced a groundbreaking backtesting solution designed to elevate cryptocurrency trading to new heights. Built on in-house technology and audited by Binance, the feature equips traders with the tools to sharpen their strategies, reduce risks, and maximize profitability in dynamic markets. What sets Veles Backtesting apart? Customizable Parameters:

This will be a key spot to watch in the day ahead, as it will tie together the broader market mood. S&P 500 futures are now nudging a little higher to be up 0.3% with Nasdaq futures up 0.6%. It’s not much and it is still early in the day of course. But for now

There is some firming up of pricing for a May Bank of Japan rate hike. Previously July was the hot meeting, but May has moved into contention. Scanning various pieces thereasoning includes: BoJ rate hike last week was more hawkish than many expected Ueda cited uncertainties that might slow future interest rate hikes, these factors

Deutsche Bank make note of the shunt lower for US stocks on Monday, saying markets remain sensitive to ‘downside news’. add that selloffs from time to time are normal mention that recently bearish factors are beginning to look more positive DB point to 4 factors that could hit stocks ahead though: The delayed impact of

Prior was 104.7 (revised to 109.5) Present Situation Index 134.3 vs. 145.2 prior Expectations Index 83.9 vs 81.1 prior (revised to 86.5) 12-month inflation expectations 5.3% vs 5.0% prior The University of Michigan survey last week was surprisingly soft so eyes are fixed on the upcoming data on consumers and retail sales. It doesn’t look

The song remains the same with regarrd to the USDCAD. The pair remains within a bigger trading range between 1.42899 and 1.4466. In between says the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.4372 and 1.4382 respectively. The price is currently testing those moving averages. A move below, would tilt the technical bias more to

If the German economy sees a decline again in 2025, it will be the first time since the reunification in 1990 that the country has suffered a contraction for three years in a row. Ouch. And BDI warns that such a scenario is beckoning with the situation being “very serious”. “Growth in industry in particular

The US dollar is higher after Pres. Trump and his new Treasury Secretary pumped the tariff idea further saying that it will place tariffs on computer chips and producers of pharmaceuticals saying that if they want to stop placing tariffs, companies need to build points in the US. The Treasury Secretary pushed for a gradual

📊 Technology Sector Momentum In today’s stock market, the technology sector emerges as the star performer. Notably, semiconductor giants Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) lead the rally with impressive gains of 2.70% and 2.51% respectively. The positive sentiment here suggests growing confidence among investors in tech-driven innovations and demands. 💡 Software and Consumer Electronics: A

Fundamental Overview The USD got boosted once again by negative tariffs news overnight as Bessent talked about universal tariffs starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing by the same amount every month, which eventually could reach 20%. Trump later doubled down on that saying that he wants tariffs much bigger than 2.5%. The tariffs risk has

Fundamental Overview The USD got boosted once again by negative tariffs news overnight as Bessent talked about universal tariffs starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing by the same amount every month, which eventually could reach 20%. Trump later doubled down on that saying that he wants tariffs much bigger than 2.5%. The tariffs risk has

Nvidia shares are up 4.8% in pre-market after suffering the biggest one-day market cap loss on record, more than doubling its own previous record. It led to a broader decline among chipmakers and with the weightage of the Mag 7, major indices were dragged lower despite some sectors holding up. For today, it’ll be interesting

USD surging on this from Trump We will place tariffs on computer chips in the near future. We will also place tariffs on producers of pharmaceuticals. If you want to stop placing the tariffs, you need to build the plant in the U.S. We will look at steel and other industries for tariffs. I will

Nvidia shares up roughly 5% in pre-market German economy is facing a deep economic crisis, says BDI industrial association US futures creep higher in European morning trade European stocks see a mixed mood to kick off the session France January consumer confidence 92 vs 90 expected What are the main events for today? Eurostoxx futures

Closing changes in the main North American markets: S&P 500 -1.45% Nasdaq Comp -3.1% Russell 2000 -1.2% DJIA +0.6% Toronto TSX -0.7% The headlines here don’t begin to tell the story as Nvidia’s 17% decline was the largest market cap wipeout in history, doubling the previous record. There was broad pain in other chipmakers and

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel spoke in an interview on Monday, saying that while the Bank does not favour negative interest rates, it cannot completely rule them out: “The SNB doesn’t like negative interest rates, at the same time we can’t rule negative interest rates out,” he told broadcaster SRF. “Not something the

Deutsche Bank on 4 factors that could prompt further losses for US equities China and India are working towards warmer relations between the two states BoJ Rate Hike May Move Closer: Analysis & Outlook More on White House ordering a halt to federal loans, grants Report that White House budget office is ordering a pause

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes with S&P 500 futures seen down by just 0.1% on the day as well. After the heavy selling yesterday, there is still some slight pessimism in broader markets. Nasdaq futures are seen up 0.2% though, so are tech shares ready to bounce back? We’ll have

China is out on holidays until the middle of next week: There is no PBoC USD/CNY reference rate setting today – China is on holiday There will also be holidays in Hong Kong and Singapore when markets will close. Hong Kong is closed on: Lunar New Year’s Day – 29 January, Wednesday The second day

Via Deutsche Bank’s preview of the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting this week: ECB to continue to cut rates on January 30, with another 25bp reduction in the policy rate to 2.75% expect the main planks of the policy stance to be unchanged from December DB’s “baseline” forecast on the ECB remains unchanged, expecting

UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index -0.7% y/y in January expected -0.7%, prior -1.0% Shop prices declined at a slower rate in January compared to December food prices saw their biggest monthly increase since April 2024, +0.5% m/m (December was +0.1%) BRC warned that inflationary pressures could grow due to rising costs, including

Washington Post is gated, but here is, in brief, what they are reporting: White House pauses all federal grants, sparking confusion Trillions of dollars could be on hold, according to an Office of Management and Budget memo. The White House budget office is ordering a pause to all grants and loans disbursed by the federal

The initial news on the the White House ordering a broad pause on federal financial assistance programs pending a review by the Trump administration is here: Report that White House budget office is ordering a pause to all federal grants and loans Wall Street Journal (also gated) now: The White House ordered executive departments and

It’s a light calendar for the session in Asia. Japan has its services PPI, and Australia gets a business confidence and conditions update for December 2024. Neither is likely to be a mover of major FX too much upon release. Note, China holidays begin today. China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year

The European session today is pretty empty on the data front with no market moving releases on the agenda. The main highlight is the US Consumer Confidence report in the American session. We will also get the US Durable Goods Orders but it’s not a market moving release in general because it’s too volatile and

Mondays are tough, but this one was especially so for investors. Pre-market trading saw significant declines in the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” with Nvidia — one of the key drivers of the recent bull market — leading the losses. The culprit? Fears of lower demand for Nvidia’s products. No, it’s not because Trump is shelving the

Like everyone today (and all weekend), I’ve been trying to understand what DeepSeek means. Some thoughts: 1) I don’t care how they trained it, the cost to run is most important Whether DeepSeek had a hidden stash of H100 chips doesn’t matter nearly as much as the changes in opex. The model is free, open

There aren’t any major expiries that should factor into play for the day ahead. There are some closer ones for EUR/USD at 1.0400 and 1.0500, then one for AUD/USD at the 0.6300 level. But given prevailing spot levels and the technical outlook, they aren’t likely to see much of a role in impacting price action.

Via a note from RaboBank on the euro: expecting EUR/USD to drop to parity in Q2 of this year Says that while the recovery in EUR/USD looks similar to 2017, during Trump’s first year, this time around the picture for the euro is more difficult, citing: Ukraine war ECB rate cuts lack of strong leadership

Japan PPI Services for December 2024 +2.9% y/y expected 3.2%, prior 3.0% *** Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japan covers services such as transportation and communication,

Trump continues to promise tariffs: More from Trump – will place tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals Earlier: Bessent wants a gradual rise in tariffs, could go as high as 20% Bessent will be the Treasury Secretary. I argued in that post that Trump will do what Trump will do on tariffs, not what Bessent wants

National Australia Bank business survey, for December 2024. Business Confidence -2 prior -3.0 Business Conditions 6.0 prior 2.0 Sales increased 3 points to +9, profitability rose 4 points to +4, and the employment index gained 1 point to +4. Conditions improved across most industries, except for transport and utilities, construction, and wholesale. NAB cite: supported

Trump spoke earlier at a House GOP Conference meeting at Trump National Doral Miami. More from Trump – will place tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals USD surging again – Trump tariff threats, Bessent want tariffs too He is on his way back to Washington now, speaking with reporters on Air Force One.: confirms Microsoft is

Tariff man strikes again and the dollar is sitting higher today. It’s another reminder that with Trump, you never know what you’re gonna get right before the end of the day in the US. He is up threatening with tariffs again and you can check out the headlines here. This is now seeing the dollar

Chinese Foreign Ministry reported by the Global Times: China and India have agreed to resume direct flights between the Chinese mainland and India, support coordination between competent departments of the two countries to advance this goal, and take measures to facilitate personnel exchanges and mutual postings of journalists Tensions between the two are particularly high

Trump on tariffs again. Earlier his Treasury Secretary was reported as saying tariffs could start at 2.5% and then gradually rise: Bessent is pushing a starting 2.5% universal US tariff plan, which would rise each month Trump is not having that! Says he wants tariffs much larger than 2.5% hasn’t decided on the level yet

A majority of the US Senate votes to confirm Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, the Financial Times report that Bessent is pushing a gradual increasing universal US tariff plan. FT is gated, but in brief: new universal tariffs on imports to the US would start at 2.5% would then rise gradually would move higher

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

We get December 2024 month and Q4 2024 inflation data from Australia on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11.30 Sydney time: 0030 GMT 1930 US Eastern time The quarterly figures are the focus. More on this under the preview. The inflation report will be pivotal in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moves

Justin had the news on this on Monday. Morgan Stanley cited: recent slowdown signs of labour market weakness MS added that the lingering effects of the 16-year Bank rate will weigh on growth: peak impact of the BoE’s policy tightening is likely behind us drag on the economy still persists Bank of England Bank Rate

The data post is here: Japan data – Services PPI (December) 2.9% y/y (prior 3%) I got pretty caught up with Trump’s tariff talks: More from Trump – will place tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals USD surging again – Trump tariff threats, Bessent want tariffs too Trump says DeepSeek is a positive – a ‘wake

Trump says he would soon impose tariffs on foreign pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and metals Also, Trump said the news of DeepSeek’s apparent progress in artificial intelligence is “a positive” – its good that firms in China have come up with a quicker method of AI. Trump’s tariff comments may be being read as putting Bessent firmly

The theme in investing today is simple: AI isn’t some kind of walled-off, near-impossible and extremely expensive software; it’s going to be cheap to make a cheap to run, at least for most business applications. That redirects the market power away from the chipmakers and hyperscalers to companies using AI to become more efficient. It

US December new home sales 698K vs 675K expected US sells 5-year notes at 4.330% vs 4.336% WI Bloomberg: OPEC+ is likely to stick with its current supply policy at a review meeting Reuters poll: Gold to average $2756 per ounce in 2025 and $2700 per ounce in 2026 DeepSeek says it was suject to

Trump speaking We will have a lot of people bidding on TikTok Don’t want China involved in TikTok This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 4.478% Bid to cover 2.40 vs 2.66 prior There is some historical precedence for a soft auction as only 20% of 5-year auctions managed to stop through when the sale occurred on the same day as a 2-year auction, according to BMO. I think the market was likely braced for that so this

Due to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, the US treasuries frontloading the auctions. Earlier today, they sold $60 billion of two year notes at a high yield of 4.211% versus a WI level of 4.210%. The into cover was nearly average, with domestic buyers better than the six-month average but international buyers less than the

The US is always thought to be protected somewhat by its geographical position with the Pacific Ocean on one side and the Atlantic Ocean on the other. However as time goes by and technology improves than threats from the south may increase, present trend is set to sign in order to begin process of creating

Central banks may need to contend with lower levels of rational inattention In the ECB’s own words, “the theory of rational inattention assumes that agents cannot process all available information, but they can choose which exact pieces of information to attend to”. Well, I guess she’s saying it doesn’t help if you have someone looking

The model that most people in the bond market are using is this: AI is disinflationary But first there will be massive spending on chips and power to build it, creating near-term inflation Well the second-leg of that thinking took a big hit from DeepSeek, as it shows that training AI is more technique than

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

While the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF point to a lower USD, the USDCAD is not so sure. The USDCAD moved higher initially (higher USD), then fell toward a support and is back up. That has the pair higher on the day. However, the price is finding some stall near the 100/200 hour MAs between

Oli traders: Expect OPEC+ to stick with its currency supply policy at a review meeting next week That would run counter to Pres.Trumps request to produce to lower the price and in turn give an incentive to end the war in Ukraine. The current road map is for continued supply cuts this quarter, before gradually

On Friday, Nvidia was the largest company in the world at around $3.5 trillion. Today, shares opened down 12% and that’s led to a decline in market cap of about $465 billion. That dwarfs previous big losses from Nvidia and Meta. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 2.73% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the text from the kickstart post released earlier today, I noted: EUR/USD: The pair moved lower in the early Asian session but found support from buyers within a key swing area and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the December high, between 1.0448 and 1.0461. Buyers regained control, pushing the price back

Bloomberg reports that China pledged to accept the return of undocumented Chinese citizens in the US, after President Donald Trump threatened to hit Colombia with tariffs for refusing to take back deported migrants. “China will receive people who are confirmed as Chinese nationals from the mainland after verification,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said

Nvidia’s stock price has tumbled on the DeepSeek news, raising questions about its valuation multiples. Adam shares some compelling fundamental insights on what could be the biggest news story of 2025 and beyond. You can read about it HERE. PS. the decline is also the largest Market cap decline ever (CLICK HERE). That is more

For what it is worth, a Reuters poll sees Gold prices averaging $2756 per ounce in 2025 and $2700 and 2026. The current prices trading near the the average price at $2741. For silver, they expect the average price to be $33.10 per ounce in 2025 and $33.45 in 2026. It’s price is currently down

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 49 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 92 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 71 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 65 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 77 bps

TradeCompass for NVIDIA Stock: Contrarian Long Opportunity Amid Pre-Market Decline At the time of this analysis, NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading at $128.40, down nearly 10% in pre-market from Friday’s close. This presents an intriguing contrarian long opportunity for swing traders, leveraging key support levels from historical value areas and VWAP deviations. Below is a detailed

I believe that recent leaks have revealed why Trump is threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and what he really wants in return. He wants to renegotiate the USMCA agreement sooner. The agreement — which he negotiated in his first term — is up for review on July 1, 2026. If any party wants

Sector Overview The US stock market presents a varied landscape today, with significant movements across various sectors. The semiconductor sector faces a pronounced downturn, while the consumer defensive sector, led by Walmart, holds steady. 📉 Semiconductor Sector: The semiconductor sector is experiencing a sharp decline, primarily driven by major players such as Nvidia (NVDA), which

Goldman Sachs anticipates a 25bps rate cut from the Bank of Canada at this week’s January meeting, paired with cautious guidance due to tariff-related uncertainties. They prefer medium-term long USD/CAD positions to capitalize on potential tariff risks. Key Points: Expected Rate Cut: A 25bps cut aligns with market expectations, continuing the BoC’s easing cycle. Messaging

Update gold, being hit by the news sending the USD higher: US dollar rising still in Asia trade – Trump tariff trade war on Colombia hits FX, risk Update … I’ve drawn in a couple of trend lines as ideas … I am not entirely convinced. Comments welcome! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Tech shares are the main drag with Nvidia itself down some 11% in pre-market trading. A lot of attention is put on DeepSeek and Adam had the early scoop last week already here: China’s DeepSeek may have just upended the economics of AI That’s leading to a broader fallout among chipmakers now as investors pick

The AUD/USD is bucking the broader trend of a weaker U.S. dollar, with the pair moving lower (stronger USD). In its decline, the price has fallen back below a key swing area between 0.6287 and 0.6301, as well as the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the November 25 high. This area now acts

The agenda points to a big week in markets with key central bank policy decisions lined up. But all in all, it may play out rather straightforward. The Fed is set to keep interest rates unchanged while the ECB and BOC are set to cut by 25 bps each respectively. And that settles it in

Prior was +3.4 (revised to +4.5) Production +12.2 vs +5.3 prior New orders +7.7 vs +1.5 prior Outlook +18.7 vs +12.3 prior Comments in the report: Computer and electronic product manufacturing The outlook is improved because we are subcontractors to a large government grant that got a funding notice. There are some worries—one being the

Prior was 664K (revised to 674K) New home sales +3.6% vs +9.6% prior These are pretty strong numbers and that’s surprisingly given the moves in yields. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The gloves are off now. A separate report says DeepSeek is only registering Chinese phone numbers now but I can’t confirm it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass for Canadian Dollar Futures (6C – March 2025 Contract) | January 24, 2025 Canadian Dollar Futures Analysis and Price Predictions At the time of this analysis, Canadian Dollar Futures (ticker: 6C) are trading at 0.69825, just below key thresholds that could activate either bullish or bearish setups. This detailed breakdown of the Canadian Dollar

At the end of last week, the 155.00 level proved to be the key for buyers in keeping the pair afloat. But amid the risk-off mood in markets today, we’re seeing sellers finally making a case for a downside break. The pair has struggled in the past two hours, falling from around 155.80 to 154.70

Headlines: USD/JPY threatens firmer break under 155.00 on safety flows The rout continues with S&P 500 futures down over 2% now Bitcoin dips back under $100,000 on risk selloff Weekly update on interest rate expectations ECB’s Lagarde: Central bank independence in question in several parts of the world Germany January Ifo business climate index 85.1

TradeCompass for Meta Stock: Price Analysis and Short-Term Trading Strategy Before Earnings This Meta stock analysis is designed specifically for day traders targeting short-term opportunities. Unlike the previous TradeCompass for Google, which included long-term options with a runner into earnings, this strategy focuses solely on shorting Meta stock in the short term. The goal is

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. ps. It’s an Australian holiday today, markets are closed, which will keep it thinner for longer. New Zealand markets are trading. Japan,

It’s going to be a rough day in the US equity market, particularly the Nasdaq. The chip bubble may be popping because DeepSeek released a model on par with ChatGPT that was far cheaper to build and to operate. The cost is something like 3% and it didn’t use the latest generation of H100 Nvidia

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The USD is solidly higher and equity index futures on globex are lower. The news hit earlier: Trump slams Colombia with tariffs after it turns back migrant deportation planes Colombian president orders increase of import tariffs on US goods USD up, equity indexes down as Trump kicks off trade war with tariffs Trump is making

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, it’s going to be a lacklustre day in terms of data releases. Tonight, the markets got hit once again by tariffs headlines as Trump decided to impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia after they refused to let a US military plane carrying deported migrants land. There was

Fundamental Overview The USD opened higher today and continued to dominate throughout the Asian session as we got once again some tariffs headlines that weighed on the risk sentiment. In fact, late yesterday Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because they refused to take the deported migrants. Colombia retaliated

Alchemy Markets has been recognized with the “Best Emerging Broker MEA 2025” award at the UF Awards MEA. This accolade, regarded as a significant benchmark within the financial industry, reflects the company’s focus on innovation, client-oriented services, and trading solutions tailored to the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. The recognition highlights Alchemy Markets’ continued

China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in January, with the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 49.1 from 50.1 in December, marking its weakest performance since August. This decline, below the neutral 50-point threshold and missing market expectations, reinforces concerns about sluggish domestic demand and ongoing economic headwinds. While China achieved its 2024 growth target

Fundamental Overview The USD opened higher today and continued to dominate throughout the Asian session as we got once again some tariffs headlines that weighed on the risk sentiment. In fact, late yesterday Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because they refused to take the deported migrants. Colombia retaliated

The USD/CHF has moved lower, breaking below the 38.2% retracement of the December low-to-high move at 0.90209, which now acts as key resistance. Staying below this level reinforces the bearish bias, while a return above could frustrate sellers. Following the break, the price targeted the 50% retracement at 0.89655, finding initial buyers there during the

Fundamental Overview The USD opened higher today and continued to dominate throughout the Asian session as we got once again some tariffs headlines that weighed on the risk sentiment. In fact, late yesterday Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because they refused to take the deported migrants. Colombia retaliated

Chipmakers have been the new poster boy for stocks this past year and they are being smashed to start the new week. That is leading to a broader risk rout with cryptocurrencies also feeling the pinch. People are pointing the finger to DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, which claims to be able to run on-par

This is a composite index of data that’s already released so it’s not a market mover but it’s a good 500ft view of the economy. Prior was -0.12 (revised to -0.01) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD has moved lower with lower yields as DeepSeek send stocks lower and tariff wars don’t help either. In the video I take a look at the three major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as they react with a move lower in the USD (EURUSD and GBPUSD move higher and the

TradeCompass for Google Stock: Price Prediction and Trading Strategy Before Earnings This detailed guide provides a roadmap for day traders and swing traders to approach Google (Alphabet) stock ahead of earnings. By identifying key price levels, institutional activity zones, and risk management techniques, the aim is to protect capital, secure profits, and capitalize on potential

The USD is having a good session, but not much else: US dollar rising still in Asia trade – Trump tariff trade war on Colombia hits FX, risk Gold slammed lower See that top link for the news of the day taking the dollar up and weighing on everything else. Bitcoin update: This article was

Domestic sight deposits CHF 433.3 bn vs CHF 436.7 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus

German DAX futures -0.8% UK FTSE futures -0.7% This comes as broader markets are also feeling the pinch with a flight to safety in general. Trump showed that he can easily just switch on the tariffs switch and that is spooking markets a little. Sure, it is just Colombia and it will be more challenging

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data January PMIs Manufacturing disappoints at 49.1 expected 50.1, prior 50.1 Non manufacturing slumps to 50.2 prior 52.2 Composite 50.1 prior 52.2 — Background to this is that from July to December 2024 (ie H2 2024), China’s manufacturing sector experienced fluctuations, moving from contraction to modest expansion, while the

Prior 84.7 Current conditions 86.1 vs 85.4 expected Prior 85.1 Expectations 84.2 vs 84.2 expected Prior 84.4 German business morale unexpectedly climbs to start the new year but it’s still languishing overall. The expectations i.e. outlook reading remains poor and that’s more reflective of the pessimism surrounding the prospects in Germany right now. This article

New Zealand will loosen visa rules to allow holiday makers to work remotely while visiting European Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking on Monday DeepSeek AI – ‘amazing and impressive’ despite working with less-advanced chips White House says Colombia has agreed to accept illegal migrants returned from the US Recap – China’s Manufacturing Sector Contracts

China has invited both local and international journalists to cover the annual sessions of its national legislature (NPC) and political advisory body (CPPCC) in March, according to an official statement released Monday. Media coverage will primarily be conducted through on-site reporting. A dedicated media center for the events will open on February 27. Info via

New Visa Rules: New Zealand will allow holidaymakers to work remotely while visiting to boost tourism and the economy. Start Date: Changes take effect from January 27 under the visitor visa. Target Audience: Digital nomads, aiming to attract longer stays and higher spending. Government Goal: Position NZ as a hub for global talent and encourage

On Monday, the U.S. will release the new home sales data. On Tuesday, Japan will publish the BoJ core CPI y/y, while in the U.S., durable goods orders m/m, the CB consumer confidence index, and the Richmond manufacturing index will be released. On Wednesday, Japan will release the monetary policy meeting minutes, after which attention

On the revision, Morgan Stanley cites a further slowdown in the UK economy and signs of labour market weakness. As price pressures continue to hold up and stagflation worries still persisting, it is a fair take. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Crypto and Stock Market Update: Crypto Sell-Off and Nasdaq Weakness The cryptocurrency market and Nasdaq futures are experiencing sharp declines, reflecting heightened risk-off sentiment in global markets. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) are trading lower by 3.58% and 4.59%, respectively, while Nasdaq futures (NQ) are down approximately 2.5%, a significant drop for this

Wall Street Journal (gated) report: Momentum is growing among President Trump’s advisers to place 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as soon as Saturday, bucking conventional wisdom in Washington and on Wall Street that he would back off the threatened levies as he has in the past in exchange for concessions. An unnamed ‘Senior administration

Eurostoxx -1.2% Germany DAX -1.0% France CAC 40 -0.1% UK FTSE -0.3% Spain IBEX -0.4% Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% The selloff in Europe isn’t as bad since the broader market rout in equities is largely due to a selloff in tech shares. But still, it’s a risk-off mood in general with bonds being bid alongside

White House: Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States. Fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions on Colombia will be held in reserve and not signed. Visa sanctions issued and enhanced inspections will remain in effect until the first plane

The dollar is leading the way in the major currencies space amid a more risk off mood in broader markets. Traders and investors are seeing that it might not take much to draw the ire of Trump, as seen from the whole situation with Colombia overnight. Tariffs can easily be floated on just about anything

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0440 and 1.0460 levels. These don’t hold much of any technical significance, with notable resistance still seen closer to 1.0500 alongside offers at the figure level. That should help to cap any upside momentum in

U.S. President Donald Trump is using Colombia as a warning to other nations about the consequences of rejecting deportation flights, a White House official told Reuters on Sunday. Earlier that day, Trump announced plans for broad retaliatory actions against Colombia, including tariffs and sanctions, after the country refused entry to two U.S. military planes carrying

Colombian president orders increase of import tariffs on US goods in retaliation to similar order from Trum: in a post on X said he had ordered Colombia’s “foreign trade minister to raise import tariffs from the U.S. by 25%.” Media report (AP) — Earlier: Trump slams Colombia with tariffs after it turns back migrant deportation

An interesting article from the Wall Street Journal: Silicon Valley Is Raving About a Made-in-China AI Model DeepSeek is called ‘amazing and impressive’ despite working with less-advanced chips While the Journal is gated, if you can access it’s a good read. In (really brief): Silicon Valley marveling at how its programmers nearly matched American rivals

China December 2024 Industrial Profits +11% y/y prior -7.3% Industrial Profits YTD -3.3% (ie in 2024 profits fell 3.3% y/y, worse than the 2.3% decline for the entire 2023) prior -4.7% We also had January 2025 PMIs, which were well below estimates: China official PMI data for January 2025: Manufacturing 49.1 (expected 50.1) — Industrial

RBC (BlueBay Asset Management) on what they expect from the Bank of Japan now: next rate hike 0.75% at the July meeting (30 and 31) then to 1% at the January 2026 meeting On JGBs: see 10-year JGB yields rise towards 1.75% longer dated bonds may hold better 10/30 yield curve to flatten further This

Trump has announced tariffs and sanctions against Colombia after it refused U.S. military deportation flights carrying migrants. Trump claims that Colombia’s refusal jeopardizes U.S. national security and violates legal obligations on migrant deportations. Trump hit Columbia with: Tariffs: Immediate 25% on Colombian imports, increasing to 50% in one week. Sanctions: Banking, treasury, and financial restrictions.

MUFG in a not on Friday (yes … I’m a bit late to this): said the drop in the USD after Trump said he’d prefer not to impose more tariffs on China could be limited Trump is still more likely to enact new tariffs While Trump want lower rates and a lower USD his immigration,

Chinese AI DeepSeek developments that weigh on the NVDA share price, and in turn NQ futures the project took only US$6 million to train its open source it performs on par with leading AI models shows the firm can navigate U.S. semiconductor restrictions on China This has combined with the Colombia tariff story (nascent trade

0810 GMT / 0310 US Eastern time – Pre-recorded Lámfalussy Lecture by ECB President Christine Lagarde at Lámfalussy Lectures Conference organised by the Hungarian Central bank. AFAIK the event/conference is titled The Age of Geoeconomics: Evolution of Central Banking The ECB is expected to cut rates this week. As a ps. Hungary is a member

A majority of British businesses plan to cut pay increases in response to upcoming payroll tax hikes, according to two surveys. Research firm Incomes Data Research (IDR) found that 69% of employers are likely to slow wage growth, with over half “extremely likely” to do so. One-third may cut jobs, while others will absorb costs

In a weekend announcement China is promoting index investments to boost the struggling stock market amid the country’s economic challenges. The China Securities Regulatory Commission posted a statement on its website on Sunday. In brief: CSRC aims for a significant increase in index fund scale and proportion over time. Measures include strengthening asset allocation, easing

China’s financial regulator – China Securities Regulatory Commission – has approved a second batch of long-term stock investment pilot programs worth 52 billion yuan ($7.25 billion). Major insurers, including China Pacific Life, Taikang Life, and Sunshine Life, along with asset management firms, will participate through contractual funds. The initiative aims to enhance market stability by

Macau is a special administrative region of China. Its A&P Macau Patacas Money Market Fund was launched in July 2024 South China Morning Post report that the fund will soon be offered to mainland investors in the Greater Bay Area via the Wealth Management Connect scheme The fund is denominated in the Macau pataca pataca

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will speak on Wednesday. Sky reports that: Reeves will say she wants to use so-called surplus release to boost investment in the economy Government sources said it could unlock more than £60bn of pension surpluses held in defined benefit (DB) schemes, while other estimates suggested the figure could

As a reminder, China is heading into a long holiday from Tuesday: China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. Many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to

Trump hit Colombia with hefty tariffs, story is here from earlier: Trump slams Colombia with tariffs after it turns back migrant deportation planes The President of Colombia responded with tit-for-tat tariffs: Colombian president orders increase of import tariffs on US goods The action-response is likely to be the trade war model going forward: Trump hits

Australian markets are closed on Monday, January 27, 2025 for observance of the holiday that fell on January 26. New Zealand, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are all open. As is China. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mon: Chinese Industrial Profit (Dec), German Ifo (Jan), US New Home Sales (Dec) Tue: ECB BLS (Q1); US Durable Goods (Dec), Richmond Fed (Jan), Tech Earnings Wed: FOMC, Riksbank, BoC & BCB Policy Announcements; Australian CPI (Dec), German GfK (Feb), EZ M3 (Dec) Thu: ECB & SARB Policy Announcements, CBRT Minutes (Jan), RBA Bulletin; EZ

Tesla Stock Price Prediction: Bear Flag Formation Developing (See the 4 hour Chart Below) Tesla’s (TSLA) stock has been trading within a defined range recently, and the latest price action is printing a concerning technical pattern—a bear flag. Here’s a breakdown of what this means for the Tesla stock price prediction and its implications for

Will Chinese DeepSeek Disrupt NVIDIA and the American AI Industry? The global AI race has taken an intriguing turn with the emergence of China’s DeepSeek, touted by some as a potential disruptor to NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI hardware space. As speculation swirls, stock investors, analysts, and thought leaders are left grappling with the critical

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China PMIs, German IFO. Tuesday: US Durable Goods Orders, US Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: Australia Q4 CPI, BoC Policy Decision, FOMC Policy Decision. Thursday: Eurozone GDP and Unemployment Rate, ECB Policy Decision, US Q4 GDP, US Jobless Claims. Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Swiss Retail Sales,

Politico is out with a very interesting report after it obtained a report showing guidance from new Secretary of State Marco Rubio. It says that — contrary to reports at the time — that yestrday’s executive order from Trump will cut off foreign aid to Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio halted spending Friday on

EURUSD: The EURUSD stretched above a retracement (61.8% from the December high) /ceiling area today, increasing the bullish bias. That area came between 1.0448 and 1.0461. That area will be a key barometer in the new trading week. You can read the commentary HERE and watch the detailed video below: USDJPY: The USDJPY remains in

Trump Coin (TRUMP/USDT): The Rise and Fall of a Meme Coin In the unpredictable world of cryptocurrency, meme coins frequently make headlines with spectacular gains—followed by equally dramatic losses. Trump mentioned (see in video below) that the launch of his Meme coin celebrated winning. So far, it seems that he won, and buyers of this

The NZDUSD has made a break to the upside and in doing so, extended above a swing area between 0.5683 to 0.5691. Within that ceiling area, sits the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end of November high. That shows that the buyers are looking to take more control. Can the buyers keep

A day after the S&P index closed at a new record level, a new intraday high was made at 6128.18, but momentum could not be sustained in the price closed lower on the day. The NASDAQ, Dow industrial average and Russell 2000 also closed lower. A snapshot of the close shows: Dow industrial average -140.82

The price of WTI crude oil futures are selling at $74.66. That’s up a modest 4 cents or 0.05%.. Looking at the daily chart, the price is settling below its 200 day moving average for the second day in a row at $74.71. For the trading week the race is down -3.58% as Pres. Trump

In trading today, the price of the AUDUSD moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the end of November high at 0.6290 along with the swing area between 0.6287 and 0.63016. The break is more bullish. Moreover, the price correction in the early US trading today, fell and tested the high of that

The video above outlines the key technical levels for the USDJPY going into the new trading week. The recent swing highs and swing lows between 154.77 up to 156.73 will be the extremes that will need to be broken to either increase the bullish bias or increase the bearish bias. This article was written by

The S&P index closed at a record level yesterday, and today the intraday high made a new record at 6128.18. However gains have not been sustained, and the major indices are on these 4 declines. A snapshot of the current market shows: Dow industrial average is down -173 points or -0.39% at 44,391.70 S&P index

Earnings for the week starting Jan 27 led by Tesla, Meta, Microsoft and Apple Down day for US stocks to end the trading week. Major indices do close higher for the week US crude oil futures is settling $74.66 Whoever figure out how to build things again will win the next decade in markets US

The GBPUSD is the biggest mover today with a run to the upside of above 1% on the day. Better PMI data for manufacturing and services gave the pair a shove to the upside. Technical breaks were a tailwind for the move as well. Technically, the run higher saw the pair move above a swing

The earnings for next week will heat up with 4 of the 7 Magnificent 7 scheduled to report. Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft will all report: January 29 after the close. Apple will announce on January 30 also after the close. AT&T, Boeing, GM, IBM, Visa, Exxon, and Chevron are also some of the large-cap names

If I had a simple thesis for a trade for the next decade in the foreign exchange market it would be this: Invest in which ever country makes it easy to build again. I spent last week in Dubai and it was amazing. Twenty-five years ago there was hardly anything there and it boast innumerable

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

High yield 2.243% WI 2.232% Tail 1.1 bps Bid to cover 2.48X vs 6 month average of 2.41X Directs 16.7% vs 18.5% average Indirects 66.51% vs 71.8% average. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier today, I posted and talked about the EURUSD technicals. I wrote: The EURUSD broke higher today with a move above a swing area between 1.0448 and 1.0461 and the 61.8% of the move down from the December high (at 1.0456). Going forward, staying above that area is more bullish. ON the topside, there is

No one has ever accused the oil market of being full of the smartest traders. Trump said the same thing yesterday and oil fell $1.50. He said the same thing dozens of times during his first term. There’s no evidence anywhere that he’s capable of dictating OPEC policy. Even more importantly, does he even realize

The German government had previously estimated 2025 economic growth to be 1.1% but is expected to significantly scale that down to just 0.3%. That will bring it more in line with what most analysts are anticipating for the German economy. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s price action highlights how fragile the US dollar is. There is no doubt that it’s a crowded trade and anytime a trade gets overcrowded everything needs go perfectly to keep it going. Today there was a pair of economic data releases that were far-from-perfect. The S&P Global services PMI fell to the lowest since

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a day of varied performances across sectors, with some noteworthy movements that investors should consider. Technology is witnessing mixed results: while Microsoft (MSFT) has fallen by 1.01%, semiconductor firms like Nvidia (NVDA) have registered gains of 0.58%, and Broadcom (AVGO) surged by 1.44%, illustrating strength in certain subsectors.

House Republicans currently have just at 217-215 margin and that’s going to make passing a big corporate tax cut very difficult, especially since it will need to be paid for via reconciliation rules. Trump yesterday talked about getting Democrats on board but today, Punchbowl outlined a pitch from Republican committee chairs on what could add

According to Bank of America’s January global fund managers’ survey, the biggest threats to risky assets in 2025 are a sharp rise in bond yields, U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, and a global trade war. Among the surveyed fund managers, 36% identified a disorderly increase in bond yields as a major concern, 31% pointed to

German DAX futures +0.4% French CAC 40 futures +0.4% UK FTSE futures +0.1% US futures might be more muted today but European indices are taking their cue from Wall Street yesterday. The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high with the Nasdaq also not too far behind, just 0.8% away from its own record.

Trump said earlier today that he wants the war in Ukraine to end. Reuters also had an interesting report today citing “five sources with knowledge of the situation” that Putin is concerned about distortions in Russia’s wartime economy. That has contributed to the view within a section of the Russian elite that a negotiated settlement

It’s a big day for the Bank of Japan, its expected to take its benchmark rate +25 bp to 0.5%, the highest since 2008 and the biggest rate hike since February 2007. As always, there is no firm time for the BoJ statement. Experience suggests to expect it some time in the 0230 to 0330

Canada’s labor market for 2024 has been revised, and the updated data paints a weaker picture than initially thought, with a noticeable decline in employment levels toward the end of the year. While the headline-grabbing December surge of 91,000 jobs remained intact after revisions, the broader trend reveals mounting weakness since September. The revisions show

Bank of America highlighted how crowded the USD trade was in its latest fund manager survey and Europe is universally hated so today’s PMIs from S&P Global have surprised the market. The European numbers beat estimates while the US services survey surprisingly slumped to the lowest since April. The reading of business sentiment fell to

South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok instructed authorities to closely track policy shifts in the U.S. administration and global financial markets to ensure stability in domestic markets. Domestic markets in South Korea have seen more action than usual after the marital law incident in early December. Financial authorities there pretty much announce they are watching

TradeCompass for Tesla Stock Current Price: $417.00 (at the time of this analysis)Bearish Threshold: $415.28Bullish Threshold: $421.75 Directional Bias: The tendency leans bearish. While Tesla hovers near a key inflection point, it requires confirmation to determine sustained movement. Bearish Outlook: Below $415.28, Tesla could face increased selling pressure. Here are the bearish profit targets: $413.15

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a consistent bid ever since the softer US inflation data last week eased the concerns around a more hawkish rate path and led to a fall in real yields. Tonight, we got some more easing in yields as Trump said that he would rather not use tariffs on China.

This week, the buyers in the USDCAD had their shot on a break to the upside. THey missed. THe sellers had their short on a break to the downside. They missed. The breaks up-and-down took the price of the pair outline a Red Box that is between 1.42899 and 1.4466. That Red Box was started

The EURUSD sellers had their shot on Trump tariffs talk early in his Davos speech/comments. The USD moved higher and the price fell below the 100-hour MA (blue line in the chart below). That should have sent the price lower, but the break was short-lived. The price jumped higher. That move took to the price

USD/JPY briefly fell to a low of 154.83 before this particular remark here, now trading back up to 155.30 levels. The pair is still down 0.4% on the day though. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures: January 24, 2025 – Bitcoin Futures Price Prediction and Strategy Prediction and Strategy Summary for Bitcoin Futures: Bias: Slightly bearish, focusing on fading a potential breakout in Bitcoin futures. Approach: Wait for Bitcoin price to approach a higher resistance level (trap bulls) before initiating a short trade. Entry: Short at 107,020

In 2024, the People’s Bank of China, expanded its gold reserves by 44.17 tons, bringing the total to a record-high 2,279.57 tons, making it the sixth-largest globally. That year, China produced 377.24 tons of gold, while consumption reached 985.31 tons. Gold imports totalled 156.864 tons, reflecting an 8.83% year-on-year increase, according to the China Gold

Prior month 74.0 Univ Michigan sentiment 71.1 versus 73.2 estimate. Weakest level since October of last year Current conditions 74.0 versus 77.9 preliminary and 75.1 prior month. Weakest since November last year Expectations 69.3 versus 70.2 point preliminary and 73.3 prior month. Weakest since July of last year 1 year inflation 3.3% versus 3.3% preliminary

The video above outlines the technicals in play for the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GPUSD. The BOJ did raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.50% as per expectations. A summary of the statement: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to raise its policy rate by an 8-1 vote, with board

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reports that Shangai is considering plans to bypass China’s ‘Great Firewall’. As part of efforts to attract more foreign investment. *** China’s Great Firewall is a state-controlled internet censorship and surveillance system that restricts access to foreign websites, limits online content, and monitors internet activity within the country. Operated

Prior was 56.8 Manufacturing vs 49.7 expected Prior manufacturing was 49.4 Composite PMI vs 55.4 prior The PMIs out of Europe today were stronger, helping to boost the euro and pound. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday’s look at the USDCHF, I wrote: Downside targets that would increase the bearish bias would be near 0.9050 and then the 38.2% and swing level at 0.90209 (see green numbered circles). Getting below the 38.2% of the move up from the December low is key if the sellers are to show they want to

Prior 49.3 Manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs 42.3 expected Prior 41.9 Composite PMI 48.3 vs 47.7 expected Prior 47.5 Business activity in France contracted for a fifth month running now, with the services sector marginally slipping while manufacturing conditions also slumped but at least showing a slight improvement in terms of output. The rates of decline

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Fundamental Overview The USD continues to lose ground as the tariffs fears ease. In fact, tonight Trump said that he would rather not use tariffs on China which triggered more weakness in the greenback. The tariffs risk has been the only thing keeping a bid under the US Dollar after the US inflation data, so

Prior was 4.15m (revised to 4.19m) Sales up 2.2% vs +4.8% prior Strongest pace since February 2024 Sales grew 9.3% from one year ago but despite that 2024 annual sales fell to the lowest in nearly 30 years Median prices +6.0% y/y Inventory at 3.3 months vs 3.8 months prior Inventory for sale +16.2% y/y

We don’t want to wait until very large negative impact emerges from rate hike Would rather proceed with caution Gradually guiding policy out of ultra-loose conditions but without causing high inflation would be ideal No specific level in mind acting as a barrier for interest rates And USD/JPY trades at around 155.45, just roughly 20

Monetary Authority of Singapore is Singapore’s central bank. Policy decision statement today, in brief: MAS says no change to the width of the policy band or the level at which it is centred. MAS says it will reduce slightly the slope of the S$NEER policy band. MAS says the measured adjustment is consistent with a

It’s been a back and forth day for the pair as traders are still working out what to make of things after the BOJ policy decision today. On the one hand, the dollar remains softer across the board and vulnerable as tariff fears are receding. That being said, the bond market isn’t exactly buying into

Services PMI 51.2 vs 50.9 expected and 51.1 prior. Manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs 47.0 expected and 47.0 prior. Composite PMI 50.9 vs 50.0 expected and 50.4 prior. All the indices jumped to a 3-month high. S&P Global says that companies have been cutting employment amid falling sales and that price pressures reignited pointing to a

Meta’s Zuckerberg says: Meta is expected to spend $60 – $65 billion in This year versus previous guidance up 38 – $40 billion. The stock is moving lower in premarket trading on the news. The current prices down $9.43 or -1.48% at $627.25. Zuckerberg adds: Plans to grow Meta’s AI team significantly Company is building

Tass is reporting that: There are no objective signs that Ukraine and West are ready for peace talks, despite all statements Russia is against freezing of Ukraine conflict, or it will be used by West to arm Kyiv and for revenge. Trump has been firm about his intention for the war to end and has

Always mindful of risks of real wages falling, consumption languishing But expect real wages to turn positive if wage growth momentum continues Well, the Covid pandemic has really given Japan a get-out-of-jail-free card. Before 2020 if you’d say the BOJ would be able to raise interest rates before 2025, you’d look like an absolute clown.

The major US stock indices are little changed in early trading. The Dow industrial average is down modestly. The S&P and NASDAQ index is our little changed and trading above or below unchanged. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average -48.42 points or -0.11% at 44516.65. S&P index +1.96 points or 0.03%

The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 0.5% from 0.25% This is the highest in 17 years The Bank also raised its price inflation forecast, all 6 projections were moved higher The Bank cited a more positive outlook on wage rises There was no change to the BOJ’s guidance pledging to keep

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0400 and 1.0480 levels. The pair is currently running into some short-term resistance around 1.0430-50, so that is arguably the more important technical region to watch now. So, I wouldn’t attach too

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.7% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% US futures might be more muted today but that’s not spoiling the mood in Europe. The DAX is nearing 8% gains already in January as it continues to scale to fresh record highs this week. The

Ivanka Trump is a daughter of Donald Trump. She says she has no involvement in $IVANKA, saying: “It has come to my attention that a fake crypto coin called ‘Ivanka Trump or ‘$IVANKA’ is being promoted without my consent or approval” “To be clear: I have no involvement with this coin. This fake coin risks

The president of Japan’s largest trade union Rengo says its very important to secure wage rises as real wages continue to fall and the result of this year’s wage negotiations must exceed last year Still awaiting the Bank of Japan statement, the Bank is expected to raise rates by 25bp This article was written by

Moving into 2025, as traders search for platforms that best meet their needs, many companies within the highly-competitive forex industry are starting to realise the importance of providing more comprehensive toolkits to clients who expect more from their trading journey. Ahead of the curve is T4Trade, a global leader in online trading, which strives to

TradeCompass for Euro FX Futures (6E) – 24 January 2025 Key Insight: Volume Profile Analysis and Naked Levels This TradeCompass focuses on a short trade strategy for Euro FX Futures (6E), leveraging volume profile analysis to identify high-probability reversal zones. The strategy targets Euro Futures price prediction by identifying key naked levels (untested Value Area

Prior was +0.1% A separate report on Canadian manfacturing sales shows them most-likely up 0.6% in December. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The PMI data from France and Germany today certainly impressed, even if they are still reflecting rather tepid economic conditions at best. The more subdued performance overall should keep the ECB on track to cut rates still, even if there might be some slight concerns on price pressures. For now, the ECB can arguably still

Headlines: Onshore yuan posts strong rally as Trump tariff fears abate EUR/USD knocks on the door of 1.0500 after euro area PMI data France January flash services PMI 48.9 vs 49.3 expected Germany January flash manufacturing PMI 44.1 vs 42.7 expected Eurozone January flash services PMI 51.4 vs 51.5 expected UK January CBI retailing reported

But we have come closer to the neutral rate now No new information regarding where neutral rate should be, it has a wide range Upward revisions to inflation forecasts mostly due to cost-push factor Economy and prices are “on track” with our forecasts as higher wages will be reflected in prices Just have to watch

After that, we expect inflation to settle in second half of the year Not seeing BOJ is that severely behind the curve right now It is necessary to raise rates in accordance with ‘economic temperature’ Appropriate response will be to gradually ascertain how underlying inflation will rise moving forward Will carefully monitor impact of rate

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to lose ground as the tariffs fears ease. In fact, tonight Trump said that he would rather not use tariffs on China which triggered more weakness in the greenback. The tariffs risk has been the only thing keeping a bid under the US Dollar after the US inflation data, so

There’s some positive risk sentiment in the market as Trump said that he would rather not use tariffs on China. The tariffs risk has been the only thing keeping a bid under the US Dollar after the US inflation data, so when that risk eases, the greenback weakens. Looking ahead, today is the Flash PMIs

The USD has slumped pretty much across the baord. AUD/USD has hit a 5 week high. CAD, EUR, AUD, NZD … all higher. USD/JPY not dropping too much, down about 10 points or so. ‘ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD is pushing to the upside and in the process is back in the swing area between 0.6287 and 0.63016. The price is also testing/breaking the 38.2% of the move down from the November 25 high. That level comes in at 0.6209. If the ceiling is broken, it gives the buyers more control. A

UK retailers reported a sharp drop in sales volumes to start the year as the glum mood continues since last year. The expected sales for next month also fell from -11 to -26, highlighting that retailers do not expect their fortunes to improve in February. CBI notes that: “Retailers cited weak demand and downbeat sentiment

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has encouraged large state-owned insurers to allocate 30% of their new premiums to A-shares. According to a research report by Morgan Stanley, this move suggests that Chinese banks are likely to become a key investment choice for state-owned insurers due to their appealing dividend yields and stable payout ratios.

Manufacturing PMI 44.1 vs 42.7 expected and 42.5 prior. Services PMI 52.5 vs 51.0 expected and 51.2 prior. Composite PMI 50.1 vs 48.2 expected and 48.0 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 50.1 (Dec: 48.0). 7-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 52.5 (Dec: 51.2). 6-month

GfK Consumer Confidence data for the UK in January 2024 plunged to -22, its worst in a year expected -18, prior -17 the sharpest December-to-January decline since 2011 The GfK survey is not adjusted for seasonal factors it typically declines in January, but this drop was more pronounced than usual all five components of the

We will await the details but an aide cited by Reuters said one of the orders is in regards to establishing a commission on science and technology. Update: President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order establishing a Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to develop a framework for crypto. The Executive Order on Crypto

Japan economy is recovering moderately, although some weakness is seen Global financial markets have been stable as a whole Must pay attention to financial, FX markets and their impact on Japan’s economy, prices The board has judged that spring wage negotiations will result in strong hikes again this year Growing number of firms expressed intentions

I posted on Trump’s shrill insistence earlier: ICYMI – Trump will “demand that interest rates drop immediately” Trump spoke to the World Economic Forum in Davos via video link: “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise they should be dropping all over the world,” Adding a little more

If you look at the composition of the Fed, even after Trump fills upcoming appointments, there just aren’t the votes for Trump to sway the Fed. We’re going to be hearing him barking about interest rates for the next four years but I think it’s a waste of energy to worry about it and it

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The People’s Bank of China have added 200bn yuan via a one-year MLF, at an unchanged rate of 2% this does not offset the 795bn yuan of MLF maturing This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The rate hike post is here: Bank of Japan hikes rates – as widely expected USD/JPY dipped lower on the Statement and forecasts. Its dropping further now. yen crosses lower alongside. The danger is further yens strength if Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is hawkish at his forthcoming press conference, scheduled of r0630 GMT /

Prior 51.6 Manufacturing PMI 46.1 vs 45.3 expected Prior 45.1 Composite PMI 50.2 vs 49.7 expected Prior 49.6 Some hope at last for the euro area economy? The surprise bounce in the manufacturing sector, notably in Germany, is something to note. However, there’s still a lot to be desired in calling this the true turning

North Korean hackers may be responsible for the multi-million-dollar breach of the Phemex crypto exchange, according to several blockchain security experts. The Singapore-based platform was hacked on Thursday, resulting in losses exceeding $70 million across multiple cryptocurrencies. Phemex suspended withdrawals earlier that day after security firms flagged suspicious activity. Initially, $30 million had been drained,

The price of crude oil is settling at $74.62. That is down $0.82 or -1.09% on the day. Technically, the price fell below its 200-day moving average at $75.01 (green line) going back to January 8, the high price stalled against that level and then broke above it on January 10. The last two days

He also noted that the BOJ decision did not cause “big moves” in markets. Well, the “leaks” before each decision now definitely go some ways in terms of helping market players to manage their expectations I guess. But that’s something they will never officially acknowledge. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan flash manufacturing PMI for January drops to 48.8 prior 49.6 Services 52.7 prior 50.9 Composite 51.1 prior 50.5 *** Earlier today we got Japan’s core inflation rate (in December 2024) hitting a 16 month high: Japan December headline CPI +3.6% (expected +3.4%, prior 2.9%) Keeping the Bank of Japan well on track for a

US initial jobless claims 223K vs 220K estimate Trump reiterates Feb 1 data for Canada and Mexico tariffs Trump: Zelensky told me he’s ready to make a deal Canada November retail sales 0.0% vs +0.2% expected EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -1017K vs -1645K Alcoa highlights resilient aluminum demand in a good sign for

USD/JPY tested towards 155.20 after a hawkish hike from the Bank of Japan Morgan Stanley on reasons to be bullish China’s banking sector Yen finding a few bids after the Bank of Japan rate hike In 2024, China’s central bank expanded its gold reserves by 44.17 tons Bank of Japan hikes rates – as widely

The yuan currency was the first line of defense against Trump’s tariffs. And Beijing definitely prepped for that as it allowed the currency to fall considerably since Trump won the presidency in November. But after the recent talks between Trump and Xi, the yuan is now clawing back losses as tariff fears look to be

This follows from the BOJ rate hike earlier in the day. But the kicker to that and the thing that markets are viewing as more hawkish was the strong inflation forecasts associated with the decision. Let’s see what Ueda will comment about that and the upcoming spring wage negotiations. USD/JPY is trading down 0.5% to

Trump looks to have gone soft on tariffs and that’s weighing on the dollar as we look to the final stages this week. It has been a week filled with headlines from the man but the latest ones definitely stand out. He said that he would rather not use tariffs against China and instead look

1000 GMT / 0500 US Eastern time Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde in Stakeholder Dialogue ‘The global economic outlook’ during World Economic Forum in Davos IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will also participate The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 7 days, 4 major central bank

Trump says would rather not have to use tariffs on China. Trump speaking in an interview with says he thinks can make a deal with China Trump spoke with China’s President Xi on Thursday. Xi must have made a convincing case. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Still to come is the press conference from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, due at 0630 GMT (and 0130 US Eastern time for the night owls). Ueda is expected to signal further rate hikes to come, with a risk he is more hawkish than he usually is. The BoJ hiked today mainly due to two

Trump wants lower oil prices: Trump called for OPEC to increase production The oil price dropped in response and that is following on here in Asia time (overnight US/Europe): This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

S&P Global Australian Flash PMIs for January 2025:> Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 prior was 47.8 jumps to a 12- month high Services PMI 50.4 prior 50.8 6-month low Composite 50.3 prior 50.2 5-month high From the reports, comments from Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The first set of S&P Global Flash

USD/CAD rose on this, though only by a dozen pips. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump spoke in an interview with Fox, referring to his phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping: “It went fine. It was a good, friendly conversation” “I can do that,” Trump said in the interview when asked if he could make a deal with China over fair trade practices. Trump said he would rather not

Goldman Sachs have trimmed their price target for AAPL to US$280, from previously at $280. GS maintained its buy rating, and noted: says the underperformance in 2025 is driven by a post-holiday inventory digestion ahead of weak seasonal period for the stock, which coincides with seasonally negative supply chain data points (GS notes January –

The news on this is here from earlier: Monetary Authority of Singapore will slightly reduce the slope of the S$NEER policy band Recapping/summary: Singapore’s central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), eased monetary policy for the first time since 2020, citing slower growth and inflation. As background to today: MAS tightened policy five times

Bloomberg earlier reported that Trump would sign an executive order around this time. It’s not clear on what the topic will be but it’s worth watching closely. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Before the Bank of Japan announcement is inflation data from Japan for December. Preview here: Ahead of the Bank of Japan decision on Friday are CPI data for December 2024 As always, there is no firm time for the BoJ statement. Experience suggests to expect it some time in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time

Japan inflation data for December 2024, all figures are y/y. Headline overall inflation rate 3.6% Expected 3.4%, prior 2.9% the m/m rate is +0.6% (prior 0.4%) Core Inflation Rate 3.0% Expected 3%, prior 2.7% Inflation Ex-Food and Energy 2.4% prior 2.4% If anyone at the Bank of Japan was waiting to see this data before

Trump spoke via video link to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. There were a few items of note, the biggie for me was: “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately,” “And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over.” Reports note that Trump did not

S&P index closed at a new record high. The broadest market index rose by 32.35 points or 0.53% to 6118.73. That took out the previous high close of 6099.97 from December 6. Yesterday, the index traded to a new intraday high of 6100.81 but close below the highest record close. Today, the intraday high was

Bank of America maintains a cautious stance on EUR against G10 currencies in the near term due to trade uncertainty, weakened risk sentiment, and relative monetary policy dynamics, particularly following strong US economic data. They see opportunities in EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD downside trades. Key Points: Drivers of EUR Caution: Trade Uncertainty: Worsened risk sentiment and

Trump’s performance at Davos today was fairly inspirational and showed some vision for growing the US and if they get to anything like a 15% corporate tax rate (from 21%), that would be a wildly-positive outcome. We will ignore the deficit worries for now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is moving up and down as Trump addresses the Davos World Economic Forum. Trump spoke of bringing the price of oil down. He spoke about interest rates coming down. That seemed to help to weaken the dollar. IN the US debt market, the yield curve steepened with the 2 year lower by -1.2

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker against the major currencies recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve also got lots of whipsaws in

Late news: Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakamura is attending the meeting by telephone. The BoJ says Nakamura is recovering from a possible infection. *** OK, on with the post! *** The Bank of Japan raised rates in March 2024, ending its negative interest rate policy regime. The Bank increased short-term interest rates

IN Adam posts “Why the Canadian dollar will continue to ignore the economic data” and he brings up some key points. In my video above, I complement the post, with a technical look at the USDCAD. Yesterday, the price fell to test the low of the Red Box (and lower swing area) between 1.42899 and

EC Markets is delighted to reflect on its resounding success at iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, an event that brought together the global trading and fintech community for three days of innovation, collaboration, and knowledge-sharing. As an elite sponsor of this prestigious event, EC Markets showcased its leadership and dedication to advancing the industry, further highlighted

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been keeping the bid since last week as the softer than expected US inflation data gave the market a boost. We haven’t got any key economic report since then and no comment from Fed speakers given that they are in the blackout period. The main driver of the price action

The price of bitcoin spiked higher after Senator Lummis – a bitcoin advocate – tweeted that “Big things are coming”. THe price spiked above the 100 and 200 hour MAs in the process (see blue and green lines on the chart below). Staying above those MAs will keep the buyers in firm control going forward.

Canadian retail sales painting a mixed picture in today’s report with November disappointing but the advance December numbers showing a strong climb. After a flat reading in November, the advanced December reading was up 1.6%. “That still suggests a healthy pace of spending during the holiday period. Consumer spending has generally improved as interest rates

The price of the major European indices are closing higher and continueing the run in 2025 German Dax, +0.74%. The price is up 7.55% this year, and closed at a new record. France’s CAC +0.70%. The price is up 6.94% this year and closed at the highest level since June 2024 UK FTSE 100, +0.23%,

China vice finance minister Large state-owned commercial insurance companies still have room to increase their capital market investment. Other officials: China will guide fund companies to buy their own equity funds using some of their profits. The vice head of China’s financial regulator says major state insurers will be encouraged to allocate 30% of their

Prior was -1962K Gasoline +2332K vs +2281K expected Distillates -3070K vs +283K expected Refinery utilization -5.8% vs +0.8% expected That drop in refinery utilization highlights some of the issues around cold weather lately. WTI fell shortly before the report after Trump called for OPEC to pump more. Here were the private inventory numbers yesterday: Crude

Repeats talking points about a ‘golden age’ and ‘revolution of common sense’ Biden totally lost control Total gov’t spending is $1.5 trillion higher than projected when I left office “It was the highest inflation in the history of our country” I terminated the “green new scam” We’re going to let people buy the car they

The US dollar declined modestly across the board during Trump’s appearance in Davos after initially rallying. Trump talked about tariffs across the board as a way to raise money for tax cuts. On the initial talk of tariffs, the US dollar briefly jumped but that move was steadily faded afterwards. It’s shown on the cable

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s December exports rose 2.8% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Finance (MOF), exceeding the poll forecast of +2.3%. prior was 3.8% Japan’s December imports increased 1.8% year-on-year, below the poll estimate of +2.6% prior was -3.8% Japan recorded a December trade surplus of 130.9 billion yen, significantly outperforming the expected 53.0 billion yen deficit

Prior week initial claims 212.75M Initial jobless claims 223K vs 220K estimate. Highest to the 1st week of December 2024 4-week MA of initial jobless claims 213.50K vs 212.75K last week Prior week continuing claims 1.859M revised to 1.853M Continuing claims 1.899M vs 1.862M estimate. The Continuing claims have not been above the 1.900M in

The video above outlines the technicals in play for the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GPUSD. Generally speaking the price action in each is limited (room to roam?). What are the key levels in each? A quick summary: The EURUSD yesterday stalled the recent rally in a swing area between 1.0448 to

The NZD/USD stalled its rise yesterday at the 38.2% retracement level (0.5688) of the decline from the November 29 high. This level also aligns with a key swing area between 0.56837 and 0.56917. Sellers capitalized on this resistance, pushing the price lower into the close. Today, the pair has experienced choppy, range-bound trading. Buyers, however,

I’m not expecting Trump to be making friends with everyone there. This one could be interesting. Trump is addressing remotely. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -14.5 This hasn’t been headed in the right direction but it’s well-above the lows from 2022 when it hit -28.8 on the energy crisis. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla Canada prices on the rise, from February 1: Model 3 prices will increase by up to CAD 9000 Model Y prices will increase by up to CAD 4000 Both Model S & Model X prices will increase by up to CAD 4000 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Alcoa are down 1.3% in the pre-market following earnings, largely due to execution challenges but the company paints an solid global demand picture for the industrial economy. Revenues rose 34.3% in the year so some strength is backward looking but going forward, the conference call highlighted ongoing resilience. “Global aluminum demand remained resilient

USD/CAD reached a session high at 1.4408 shortly before the release of Canadian retail sales but has been largely unmoved since. Canadian economic data is quickly falling to the backburner in terms of market-moving impact for two reasons: 1) Tariff risks The entire economy could be upended if Trump follows through on his 25% tariff

The USDCHF moved higher in the European/early US session and in the process tested the falling 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 0.90869). That was the 2nd test of the MA this week. On Tuesday, the price also moved to that moving average, and found willing sellers. The hold twice increases that levels importance

TradeCompass for Gold Futures – January 23, 2025 Current Price: $2,758 TradeCompass helps you navigate the gold futures market with clear entry and exit points. Here’s today’s analysis to maximize your trading opportunities. Bullish Scenario Entry Above: $2,761 (Price needs to be above $2,761 to be considered bullish) Profit Targets: $2,763.3 (Quick target aligned with

Sector Overview The stock market today presents a fascinating dichotomy between the flourishing energy sector and the struggling technology stocks. The heatmap reveals energy giants like Exxon Mobil (XOM) surging by 1.02%, reflecting robust investor confidence in oil and gas stocks. In contrast, the semiconductor sector is experiencing significant declines. Nvidia (NVDA) has dropped by

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0400 level once again. The larger expiries there is likely to keep price action more locked in around the figure level in the session ahead at least. The dollar recovered after some slight

TradeCompass for Japanese Yen Futures (6J – March 2025 Contract) | January 23, 2025 Japanese Yen Futures Price Prediction and Analysis At the time of this analysis, Japanese Yen Futures (6J, March 2025 contract) is trading at 0.0064270, apx at today’s VWAP and just below yesterday’s Point of Control (POC). This price has already triggered

TradeCompass for Nasdaq Futures – January 23, 2025 Current Price at the Time of the NQ analysis: 21,894The TradeCompass guides our bullish and bearish thresholds and outlines profit-taking targets to help you navigate the Nasdaq Futures market effectively. Here’s the breakdown: Bullish Scenario Bullish Above: 21,928 Profit Targets for Long Positions: 21,945 – Aligns with

An official at the People’s Bank of China has gotten in line with supportive comments today says will expand the scope and increase the scale of liquidity tools to fund share purchases at proper time And, more from China’s securities regulator: will further improve connect schemes, expedite cross-border investment to improve attractiveness of china stocks

CME futures on XRP and Solana set to go live February 10th pending regulatory review, according to the CME. I’d imagine we will be seeing plenty of ETFs being approved this year as well. How long until we get $TRUMP futures? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim November estimate was unchanged October sales were +0.6% Retail sales ex-autos -0.7% vs +0.1% expected Prior ex-autos were +0.1% (revised to -0.1%) Core sales -1.0% December advanced sales +1.6% The December number is important here as it shows a big rebound. Canada put in a GST (Canada’s VAT) holiday that started December 15 and

Trade Smarter with TradeCompass: Your Market Edge Awaits Stay Ahead with Precise, Bias-Free Market Insights TradeCompass isn’t just another market analysis tool—it’s your strategic partner in mastering market movements. Built for traders who want to trade smarter, not harder, TradeCompass neutralizes human bias, ensures disciplined trading, and provides actionable insights for consistent profitability. What Makes

Headlines: Heads up: Trump set to address world leaders in Davos later today Weekly update on interest rate expectations ECB’s Escriva: We still have restrictive policy France January business confidence 95 vs 94 prior UK January CBI trends total orders -34 vs -35 expected China says willing to work with US to promote stable development

Prior -40 The downturn in the UK industry eased just ever so slightly to start the year. And the worrying part for the BOE is that the index for manufacturing average prices for the next three months is seen rising to 27, up from 23 in December. That’s the highest since April last year. Adding

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 40 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 96 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 67 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 55 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 71 bps

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been keeping the bid since last week as the softer than expected US inflation data gave the market a boost. We haven’t got any key economic report since then and no comment from Fed speakers given that they are in the blackout period. The main driver of the price

Given the state of play and the “leaks” since last week, it looks like a BOJ rate hike is imminent. The question is, how are they going to follow that up ahead of the spring wage negotiations in March? As things stand, traders are pricing in ~94% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for

We need to move to a neutral stance This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

6:50 PM JPY: Trade balance. Forecast: -0.51T, Previous -0.38T 6:00am GBP: CBI Industrial Order Expectations, Forecast: -35, Previous: -40 8:30am CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m, Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.1% 8:30am CAD: Retail Sales m/m, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.6% 8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims, Forecast: 221K, Previous: 217K 10:00am EUR: Consumer Confidence, Forecast: -14, Previous: -15 11:00am

Prior was 4.686% Bid to cover at 2.75 vs 2.50 prior This is a strong auction on part of the curve that’s tough to predict. Because of that, I wouldn’t necessarily extrapolate it to 10s or 30s but it’s certainly better than the alternative. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I posted this earlier: Has the US dollar topped, or is it just resting? Battle of the trend lines. I you are interested … The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. The index was established in 1973 with a base

South Korean Q4 2024 economic growth has come in weaker than expected The lacklustre GDP numbers are in that post. The Wall Street Journal (gated) has followed up with a summary. High(low)lights: weak consumer spending weak business spending political turmoil … martial-law attempt sluggish domestic demand private consumption weakened construction investment remained in contraction exports

The price of crude oil has settled at $75.44. That is down -$0.39 or -0.51% on the day. The price is now down -6.60% from the high on January 15 at $80.73. The low price today reached $75.31. The high was at $76.42. Looking at the daily chart below, the price is approaching the 200

Eurostoxx flat Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are a touch softer though but that follows from the solid gains yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% as tech shares are the laggards on the day. Nasdaq futures are down 0.4% currently.

Japanese inflation data is due at 2330 GMT (1830 US Eastern time) on Thursday, January 23, 2025 (which is Friday morning, Japan time). Japan experienced a more or less steady increase in consumer prices over H2 of 2024, with a notable uptick in November. July 2024: The core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, increased

The announcement is here from earlier: China to boost long-term funds for equity markets Press conference now. The head of China’s securities regulator (Chairman of the CSRC Wu Qing) says there will be at least hundreds of billions of yuan in new long-term capital for A-shares every year from state-owned insurance companies. A pilot scheme

Today we don’t have much on the agenda as the only highlights are the US Jobless Claims and the Canadian Retail Sales. In the FX market, the price action is mostly rangebound as we await new catalysts. As always, keep an eye on Trump as he’s been the main driver of price swings this week.

Bank of Japan meet on Friday – will it be the fifth rate hike in 20 years? Ahead of the Bank of Japan decision on Friday are CPI data for December 2024 It appears NASDAQ’s Twitter (X) account was hacked and used to promote memecoin ‘STONKS’ The BOJ meet today and tomorrow and is unlikely

Trump won’t be there himself but he will be engaging with world leaders at the forum via a video dialogue/conference. The event itself is slated for 1600 GMT but the topics that he will be discussing aren’t made clear. As such, one can really expect everything and anything to potentially come up. Even though he’s

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This follows from the gains yesterday but the more tentative mood today is also reflected in US futures. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% now as the more optimistic mood settles down. It’s looking to be a quiet one in Europe today, so there might not be

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been keeping the bid since last week as the softer than expected US inflation data gave the market a boost. We haven’t got any key economic report since then and no comment from Fed speakers given that they are in the blackout period. The main driver of the price

1030 GMT / 0530 US Eastern time will bring a speech from Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva. As a governor of member back he is also a Governing Council member at the ECB. There was a cascade of ECB speakers on Wednesday: ECB’s Lagarde: No US tariff is what I expected ECB’s Lagarde:

S&P cannot close at a new high. New intraday high reached. What economic releases and events will highlight trading in the new trading day The CME will launch Ripple and Solana futures Gary Cohn says Trump doesn’t believe that tariffs will cause higher prices Crude oil settles at $75.44. Tests 200 day MA at session

A bit of a lower tier data day today. Japanese trade data for December 2024 is due but I suspect it won’t move the JPY needle too much. The Bank of Japan begin their two-day meeting today. The statement is due tomorrow, Friday Japan time, and a rate hike is widely expected. I mentioned yesterday

The dollar eased off gains early yesterday only to claw some of that back late on in US trading. The move was helped by a slight bounce in Treasury yields, though stocks were upbeat as usual. Overall, this puts EUR/USD back close to 1.0400 and GBP/USD snapping its recent bounce back towards 1.2300. Meanwhile, USD/JPY

China has unveiled a major initiative to channel hundreds of billions of yuan annually from state-owned insurers into equities, marking the latest effort by authorities to stabilize and support the country’s stock markets. Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), announced that in the first half of 2025, insurers will be required

The preliminary reading for 2024 Q4 GDP from South Korea is not as strong as was expected. +0.1% q/q expected +0.2%, prior +0.1% +1.2% y/y is a big tumble from Q3 expected +1.4%, prior +1.5% The Bank of Korea estimates that GDP growth over 2024 as a whole will be +2% y/y. This article was

The market is fully priced for a 25 bps rate cut next week with another cut nearly fully priced in for March. Holzmann is a hawk, so these comments aren’t a surprise, but they’re not market moving. He said inflation gauges are still very strong and a danger of cutting rates and then having to

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tariff measures are not good for China, US, and the rest of the world China willing to work with US to promote stable and healthy development of economic, trade ties They’re commenting in response to Trump’s tariff threats and the remarks are what you would expect mostly. No real tit-for-tat response yet until the tariffs

Prior 94 Manufacturing confidence Prior 97 Services confidence Prior 96 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ signals January rate hike amid strong wage growth and yen speculation. That would seem to be a decent one-sentence summary of what’s to come from the Bank of Japan statement due on Friday, January 24, 2025 Scouring around various notes on what to expect from the BoJ and the consensus that has emerged is

China has introduced several measures to stabilize its stock markets, including allowing pension funds to increase investments in domestic equities. Chinese state carried the report ICYMI. In summary: A directive from the central government, released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), emphasizes efforts to bolster market confidence. Key officials, including CSRC Chairman Wu Qing,

1000 GMT / 0500 US Eastern time – Bank of England Financial Policy Committee External Member Carolyn Wilkins will give speech at Fitch Ratings ‘Geopolitics and financial stability: a plan beats no plan’ Note: The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) was established in 2013 to improve financial stability after the financial crisis leads

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Gary Cohn was a moderating influence in Trump’s first term and was his chief economic advisor. He’s no longer working with Trump but he can speak to the President’s thinking around tariffs as they surely discussed them many times. “I think he fundamentally understands, he just doesn’t believe, and he can believe this — I

A report on Bloomberg TV claimed that car maker Stellantis will move 1,500 jobs from Canada to the US Stellantis in both Canada and the US have said this is not correct. *** Careful with this one, who knows where the truth lies. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the video above, I take a look at Oracle the day after running higher on fundamental news of a joint venture took the price above the 100 day MA and the 200 hour MA. Both breaks to the upside were bullish technically. Those levels also helped to define risk for traders looking for more

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures: January 22-23, 2025 – Bitcoin Price Prediction and Analysis This TradeCompass provides a comprehensive roadmap for Bitcoin Futures trading, covering both bullish and bearish setups for January 22 and January 23, 2025. Designed for traders seeking disciplined strategies and actionable insights, it includes critical price levels, profit-taking targets, and explanations of

Here is the summary of reports coming out: Nasdaq’s official X (formerly Twitter) account was hacked and used to promote a fraudulent memecoin called STONKS. The hacker falsely linked a fake X account as a Nasdaq affiliate and retweeted a post about the token, which had been created the same day. The misleading post has

Via social media reports: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.2 mn barrels Distillates no change mn bbls Gasoline +2.3 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning

Chinese authorities on pumping money into stocks from pension funds etc, ICYMI: China to boost long-term funds for equity markets Chinese official says 100s of bns of yuan to flow into shares every year from pensions China official says insurance firms still have room to increase their market investment Equities in China (mainland and Hong

The major US stock indices closed higher on the day. The broader indices are up for the 3rd day in a row. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 130.92 points or 0.30% at 44156.73. S&P index rose 37.13 points or 0.61% at 6086.3 index needs to close7. The record high close is

New Zealand will loosen foreign investment regulations to attract international capital, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced on Thursday (New Zealand time). The move is part of his government’s strategy to stimulate economic growth and create jobs amid a weakened economy. The country slipped into recession in the third quarter of 2024, with economic activity contracting

Comments are via J.P. Morgan Asset Management. While the managers remain bullish, and indeed are ‘overweight’, on stocks they say Number one risk heading into 2025 valuations JPM feels very strongly in the need for earnings to back up valuations JPM says they are not saying we’re underweight stocks because valuations are too expensive But

Aluminum giant Alcoa is a good barometer for the industrial economy and global growth. The company will report today after the bell and I will highlight any comments about the health of the world economy. Overall, it’s a quieter day of reporting than yesterday, which featured Netflix and a 10% gain in those shares. Other

Saudi Crown Prince Discusses Trade Expansion with President Trump Saudi Arabia Aims to Boost U.S. Investments by $600 Billion Crown Prince Sees Trump-Era Reforms Driving Economic Growth Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump via phone, expressing the Kingdom’s intention to significantly increase its investments and trade relations with the

The steep up trend line for the USD appears to have been broken. The caveat, for me, is the approach to that horizontal one: I am sure readers of ForexLive can do better than me, let me know in the comments! FWIW I am suspecting that while the steep uptrend is over, it’ll faf around

Justin had the news item overnight: ECB’s Nagel says confident inflation will return to 2% target by mid-year The ECB is widely expected to cut rates at its meeting next week: 7 days, 4 major central bank decisions (BoJ, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BoC) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG warns that a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports by the US could push USD/CAD into a 1.50-1.60 range. While markets remain optimistic that negotiations will dilute or avert the tariff threat, escalation risks loom as the 1st February deadline approaches. Key Points: Recent USD/CAD Moves: USD/CAD hit a high of 1.4516, breaking 1.4500

The S&P index is trading at 6093.40 up 44.13 points or 0.73%. At current levels, it would be high enough for a new record close. The old record close is at 6090.27. Today the price did move above its intraday record level at 6099.97. The high price today was just above that level at 6100.81.

There is some head-scratching about yesterday’s $500 billion investment in data centers that was touted at the White House. The big question is: whose money is it? The announcement was led by Softbank’s Masayoshi Son and that firm only has $134 billion under management. He was flanked by Oracle, which has a market cap of

One year ago today, Asia Genesis Asset Management announced it was shutting down. The decision came after a ‘disastrous’ January of trading that followed several tough months and destroyed the confidence of CIO Chua Soon Hock. Every trader has gone through struggles and the feeling of losing his edge. This is a raw example of

It was a strong start for the UK FTSE 100 but it gave back the gains and then finished lower, breaking a five-day winning streak. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.4% German DAX +1.0% Francis CAC +0.9% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.1% Spain’s IBEX -0.5% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6% This article was written by Adam Button

The dollar is marginally higher on the day but the changes are relatively light overall. The euro is down slightly as Trump threatens tariffs but on the week itself, the single currency is holding up rather nicely. A case of Trump’s bark being more scary than his bite at the moment? That is one way

USD/JPY is at the highest levels of the day and testing the top of the recent range. The pair is up 85 pips to 156.34. The high last week was 156.58 and that will be in focus through the Bank of Japan decision, which is coming up in Tokyo trade. The market is 88% priced

High levels of uncertainty in global macrofinancial environment calls for prudence in monetary policy decisions It’s hard to tell which way to take this. He’s obviously talking about tariffs and whatnot but does prudence mean using your ammo or saving it? In any case, the market is pretty much fully priced for 25 bps at

The S&P index moved to a high today of 6092.82. That move took the price of the index above the highest closing level at 6090.27. The all-time high price was not breached at 6099.98. Technically speaking the price has gapped on the opening for the 3rd consecutive day. On Friday, the price gapped and broke

The USDCAD stretched higher and in doing so, reached the 100/200 hour MA target at 1.4385 to 1.43918 (see earlier video HERE). Sellers leaned at the risk-defining level on the first test, and the price has backed off. If the buyers are to take more control, getting and staying above those MAs is needed to

That’s the smart approach It doesn’t mean to say it won’t happen but will be more selective Not surprised by Trump’s tariff threats Europe must be prepared and anticipate what will happen in order to respond Well, she’s not the only one to believe that Trump’s bark will be worse than his bite. Markets are

Morgan Stanley anticipates the Fed will hold rates steady at the January meeting while upgrading its assessment of the labor market. Chair Powell is expected to emphasize data dependence and policy uncertainty, leaving the door open for a potential rate cut in March. Key Points: Labor Market Upgrade: The Fed is likely to revise its

It is too early to tell but we could expect inflationary effects from new US policies There could be decoupling between ECB and Fed on rates, but it is a non-issue ECB policymakers are out in droves today and they have been consistent with their remarks. All of it points to rate cuts in January

Trump announces AI project – says will help out through emergency declarations. Oracle Chairman Ellison at the announcement: data centers are under construction in texas expansion to other locations as well *** More breaking on AI here: China’s DeepSeek may have just upended the economics of AI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

In the kickstart video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is trading higher on the day, but respecting a key technical target on the topside between 1.0448 and 1.0461.That is tough resistance on the topside that needs to be broken to

Headlines: Dollar pares gains on the day in European morning trade Trump making sure that Wall Street stays more upbeat in general ECB’s Lagarde: No US tariff is what I expected ECB’s Lagarde: We’re not overly concerned about export of inflation to Europe ECB’s Knot sees little obstacle to another rate cut next week ECB’s

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve also got lots of whipsaws in the last couple of

Trump posted about Russia just now and said: I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin – and this despite the Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost

Sector overview Today’s US stock market heatmap paints a vibrant picture of the technology sector, which is experiencing a significant upswing. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) is soaring with a remarkable increase of 10.05%, making it one of the day’s standout performers. This surge reflects strong investor confidence, possibly due to recent advancements or earnings surprises. Nvidia

The AUDUSD has exhibited heightened volatility during the US election period. Despite the fluctuations, buyers have consistently stepped in near the rising 100-hour moving average, maintaining their presence in the market. On the flip side, recent highs from Monday and Tuesday encountered resistance from sellers near the 38.2% retracement level at 0.62902 and a swing

Official data for Q4 CPI from New Zealand shows inflation firmly in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1 to 3% band. The RBNZ has a focus on keeping inflation around the 2% midpoint over the medium term. This target is set in the Remit for Monetary Policy, agreed upon between the RBNZ and the

TradeCompass: DAX Futures Analysis and Price Prediction Current Price OverviewDAX futures are trading at 21,377, positioned just above critical levels that dictate today’s price action: Point of Control (POC): The day’s primary volume concentration. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects market equilibrium. Value Area Low (VAL): The lower boundary of the fair value range. The

US stocks are set for another gain today with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% on strong earnings from Netflix and United Airlines along with the big datacenter announcement boosting AI trades. But there was a warning from Interactive Brokers today as they said: “Today is the highest level of margin we’ve ever had in our

Chinese stocks were lower today by around 1% after Trump floated a 10% tariffs based on drug exports. I tend to think of the drug/immigration line as a cover for something else because it opens up certain sanctions avenues that moaning about a trade deficit wouldn’t. In any case, the temperature around a China trade

The NZDUSD has not been without it’s volatility since the US inauguration on Monday. However, the highs reached on Monday, and Tuesday and again today, stalled near the earlier January highs and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end of November high. That “ceiling” has gotten stronger. Buyers would need to get

Deutche Bank believes that trade war risks are higher than markets are pricing and is out with a note saying the loonie is “out of the most under-priced” currencies around trade war risks. Deutche Bank that Trump does have the legal authority to impose 25% tariffs but they expect that Canada would retaliate with tariffs

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will emphasize strong wage growth surpassing inflation as a key element of his economic revival strategy in an upcoming policy speech to parliament, according to government sources. Ishiba plans to challenge Japan’s historically low wage growth expectations and encourage businesses to continue the pay raise momentum seen last year. His

The USDCAD has experienced significant volatility during the election period. Yesterday, the pair reached a new high of 1.4514, the highest level since 2020, while the previous day saw a new low near 1.42899, the lowest since mid-December. These moves briefly broke out of the “Red Box” range, which has defined trading between 1.42899 and

Inflation is well inside our target range and over our forecast cycle Not uncomfortable with inflation at the moment But cannot exclude possibility of negative interest rates If we have to do it, we will Swiss franc is traditionally treated as a safe haven Trade conflicts are not beneficial for Switzerland Ready to intervene in

Prior was +0.3% This is a composite index of data already released so it’s not a market mover but it’s a decent broad view of the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.6% PPI y/y +4.1% vs +2.2% prior Raw materials price index +1.3% m/m vs -0.5% expected Raw materials price index +9.1% m/m vs +2.0% expected The headline here is deceptive as there are some big year-over-year declines. Much of that is base effects with last December’s reading of -1.6% m/m rolling off but

Infor via Reuters, Trump: we are talking about a 10% tariff on China b/c they sell fentanyl February 1 date for tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Netflix will report their earnings after the close. Expectations are for: EPS $4.20 per share revenues $10.11 billion The company is expected to add 9 million subscribers Shares of Netflix are trading at up $13 or 1.51% at $871 United AIrlines EPS $3.02 Revenues $14.4B Shares of United are trading near record levels at $110.22.

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The GBP/USD moved lower during the Asian and European sessions but found support near the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs). Sellers turned into buyers at this critical area, and the pair began to rotate back to the upside. The upward momentum has now pushed the price toward the 50% retracement level of the

Trump: open to Elon Musk buying TikTok Trump says he met with TikTok owners is thinking of saying to someone to buy TikTok and give half to the United States This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data is encouraging, confirms that we’ll return to target Hopes to see recovery in economy, then we’ll take it from there There is new downside risk from trade policy on growth, impact on inflation not so clear But pretty comfortable with market expectations for the next two meetings But if recovery continues, not too convinced

The financial world is consistently evolving in a manner that reflects innovation-driven progress. Innovations are adopted to enhance operational streamlining, increase accessibility, and maximize returns for participants. Within this context, tokenization emerges as a transformative mechanism with the potential to significantly alter the structure and operation of index and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Understanding tokenization’s principles,

UBS CEO Ermotti spoke with CNBC on Tuesday, saying he sees rates not coming down as quickly as the market is expecting: “inflation is much more sticky than we have been saying,” “we need to see also how tariffs will play a role in inflation. Tariffs will probably not really help inflation to come down.

CBS is reporting that Pres. Trump is settling out billions of dollars in a private sector investment focused on building AI infrastructure. THe president will the speaking to it at 4 PM ET. OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle are planning a joint ventrue called Stargate Oracle shares are trading up $3.50 or 5.69% on the news

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q4 2024 CPI slightly higher than expected From the Reserve Bank of New Zealand now, its model falling well below Q3 and nearly to the top of its 3% band: The CPI result earlier supported expectations for another 50bp rate cut from the

He had previously say that the ECB should continue with “a series of rate cuts” last week. So, the remark above is consistent with that. The current deposit rate is 3.00%, so he is pretty much touting four more 25 bps rate cuts essentially. As for market pricing, traders are seeing ~96 bps of rate

Fundamental Overview The USD has been marginally weaker recently due to lower than expected US inflation figures last week that sent Treasury yields lower and made the market to price in higher chances of a second rate cut by the end of the year. We’ve also got lots of whipsaws in the last couple of

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.7% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE +0.1% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% Even with Lagarde saying she doesn’t expect Trump’s tariffs to be that bad, the ECB is still primed to cut rates in January and March to begin with. Right on. US futures are also on the

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

Monetary policy will stop being restrictive in the near future Again, all of the commentary today has been to sell the story of rate cuts coming in January and March. So, this is consistent with that theme. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0900/0400 ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau to speak on Davos panel about interest rates 1030/0530 ECB policymaker Klaas Knot speaks in Davos 1515/1015 Participation by ECB President Christine Lagarde in Stakeholder Dialogue ‘Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe’s Potential’ during World