The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) have raised the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing from 1.5 to 1.75, effective January 13, 2025. This is a significant move in China’s monetary and regulatory policy landscape. Here’s a breakdown of what this means: What is the Macro-Prudential Adjustment […]

The US stock market is off to a negative start for the week. The declines are led by the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 stocks. The Dow stocks are now trading higher as the flow of funds is out of the riskier stocks. A snapshot of the market shows: Dow industrial average +87.99 points or

December payroll data from the US was much stronger than expected: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 10 Jan: Strong US jobs sends the USD & yields higher. The +256,000 headline significantly beat expectations of 160,000. The highest expected was +200,000, while the 140K-185K range showed the most clustering. If you didn’t know this going into

Sector Overview The stock market heatmap reveals a pronounced downturn in the technology sector, particularly among semiconductor stocks, while the healthcare sector displays pockets of strength, led by health plan providers. 📉 Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) leads the decline with a steep drop of 3.13%, reflecting broader negative sentiment in the tech industry. AMD shows resilience

Fundamental Overview The USD got another boost on Friday following the NFP report as the data beat expectations by a big margin almost across the board. The market scaled back the rate cuts expectations further with now just one cut expected by the end of the year. The focus remains on inflation and this week

The export restrictions mostly covers advanced computing chips used for AI and builds on previous curbs set out last year on exporting certain chips to China itself. The new controls on AI chips will see quotas on exports to about 120 countries but 18 US allies and partners will be exempt from that. The list

A day after the stronger than expected US jobs report, the USD is modestly higher with the largest gains vs the EUR (+0.52%) and the GBP (+0.81%). THe dollar has small gains vs the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD and is lower vs the JPY (-0.22%) to start the week. EURUSD: THe EURUSD is stretching

Prior month revise to 109.45 from 109.55 Employment trends for December 109.70 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved sharply to the downside in early NA trading after the highs today stalled near the low of an upper swing area (at 1.44488) The market price waffled up and down in the European session today, but over the last hour or so has taken a run to the downside. That move

The dollar is once again keeping firmer in trading today, mostly advancing against the euro and pound. It is down against the yen but keeping steadier across the board elsewhere. GBP/USD is the biggest loser, down 0.7% to 1.2120 levels at the moment. The pair is continuing to stay poised in chasing further downside with

The order US stock indices are on a three day losing streak and on pace for its 4th today with the premarket futures trading to lower levels. A snapshot of the implied openings shows: Dow industrial average -75 points. S&P -45 points NASDAQ index -234 points A major market bellweather, Nvidia is trading sharply lower.

I posted earlier on Morgan Stanley unmoved by the jobs report: ICYMI – Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to cut rates in March In the preamble to that post I spoke about the data. Repeating it here ’cause it contains what should be useful info: December payroll data from the US was much stronger than

The China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) holding a meeting in Beijing, under the guidance of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), is a noteworthy event, as such meetings often involve discussions on key issues related to China’s foreign exchange policies and market stability. meeting discussed resolutely keeping the yuan exchange rate basically stable and at

There are a couple of massive expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are all for EUR/USD with the more notable ones being at 1.0200 and 1.0250 currently. There’s an even larger one at 1.0300 but it might not feature much into play given the dollar strength since

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead, as is typically the case following the NFP release. Monday starts slowly, with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the core PPI m/m and PPI m/m data and Wednesday will feature inflation data releases for both the U.K. and the

TradeCompass: Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures Analysis – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 20885 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Nasdaq 100 Futures Today Bullish Above: 20986 Why Bullish Above:If Nasdaq 100 futures surpass 20986, the price would trade above today’s VWAP, the developing

They’re not the only ones to pare back expectations after the stronger US jobs report last week. Goldman Sachs also did that too, but from three to two. And as things stand, traders themselves are pricing in just one rate cut for the year as seen here. This article was written by Justin Low at

Chinese trade data for December 2024, USD denominated figures: Trade Balance 104.84bn expected 99.8bn, prior 97.44bn surge in exports balloons out the surplus even more Exports +10.7% y/y expected +7.3%, prior +6.7% exports have likely been boosted by the surge to send goods offshore ahead of expected Trump tariffs Imports +1.0% y/y expected -1.5%, prior

Hong Kong Monetary Authority statement: HKMA and PBoC will set up CNY 100bln liquidity facility for trade finance China to encourage listings and debt issuance in Hong Kong Bond Connect Southbound Scheme hours to be extended onshore investor choices for international bonds through link to expand This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Everyone has a different trading journey and story to tell. The Finance Magnates London Summit (FMLS:24) drew plenty of big names and specialists, including Rajwinder Dhanda last November. Rajwinder Dhanda is the Founder of Dhanda the Great, who checked in with Finance Magnates during FMLS:24 to tell his personal story and success. Having left his

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. ps. It’s a Japanese holiday today, which will keep it thinner for longer. Singapore and Hong Kong will return liqudiituy to markets

A note from Fidelity takes a look at gold after a banner year in 2024: Gold prices climbing approximately 27% in 2024 largest annual increase in 14 years factors contributing included interest rate cuts, persistent geopolitical tensions, and favorable supply-and-demand conditions Looking ahead, Fidelity say gold bulls are optimistic that a weakening U.S. dollar and

I posted earlier on the news: US and UK tighten sanctions on Russian oil industry The news broke on Friday: US will impose sanctions on 180 vessels transporting Russian crude, dozens of traders and two major oil companies Oil update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Philip Lane is the Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB). European economy still recovering from the pandemic ECB baseline for Europe is a recovery Expects consumption to improve in 2025 More easing from the Bank is likely Lane speaking as part of a “policy dialogue” at

TradeCompass: Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Bitcoin Futures Price at the Time of Analysis: 94615 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for Bitcoin Futures Today Bullish Above: 96000 Why Bullish Above:If Bitcoin futures cross above 96000, it would indicate price trading above today’s developing Value Area High (VAH) and surpassing the

Over the weekend, he adds that “the preparations are underway”. And that while “we haven’t set the exact framework for it yet”, the call is a starting point and they will take on discussions from there. As for the nature of the call itself, Waltz merely mentioned that: “You can’t enter a deal if you

A stronger US jobs report at the end of last week led to a dollar rally and higher yields. But still, gold managed to thrive as it closed 0.7% higher on Friday and coming close to testing the $2,700 mark. The new week is still seeing price hold steadier, around $2,689 currently. As mentioned last

Fundamental Overview The USD got another boost on Friday following the NFP report as the data beat expectations by a big margin almost across the board. The market scaled back the rate cuts expectations further with now just one cut expected by the end of the year. The focus remains on inflation and this week

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dpoke in an interview with CNBC on Sunday: “As we did last time, we are ready to respond with tariffs as necessary” Trudeau is referring here to 2018, when Canada slapped dollar-for-dollar tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum in response to the Trump tariffs on Canada’s steel and aluminum during

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today S&P 500 Futures Analysis Today China intensified efforts on Monday to stabilize the weakening yuan China December USD denominated Exports +10.7% y/y (expected +7.3%) Imports +1.0% (-1.5%) HKMA and PBoC to set up a CNY 100bn liquidity facility for trade finance Some Chinese trade data is dribbling out. 2024 total imports

China intensified efforts on Monday to stabilize the weakening yuan, which has been under pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar, declining Chinese bond yields, and rising trade tensions. The measures include relaxing rules for offshore borrowing and issuing verbal warnings as the currency hovers near a 16-month low against the dollar. The links are

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 24 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 85 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 42 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 41 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 61 bps

I posted earlier on Morgan Stanley being unmoved by the jobs report: ICYMI – Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to cut rates in March They look like they are on a desert island though, analysts elsewhere are dialling back rate cut expectations. Goldman Sachs for example: Goldman Sachs now expect two Federal Reserve interest rate

ECB unlikely to accelerate rate cuts. Cutting faster would need a more significant departure from out projections. Gradual moves are best amid uncertainty. Near-term market bets are justified. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Ministry of Commerce unveiled its primary objectives for 2025 on Sunday, focusing on expanding access to China’s market, strengthening global collaboration in supply chain development, and maintaining stability in foreign trade and capital flows. In a statement released after a two-day annual meeting, the ministry committed to enhancing domestic consumption, aligning more closely with

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.2% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% European equities are starting off with slight losses, carrying over the negative mood from last week. This comes as US futures are also lower but the declines are mostly led by tech shares. S&P 500 futures

Fundamental Overview The USD got another boost on Friday following the NFP report as the data beat expectations by a big margin almost across the board. The market scaled back the rate cuts expectations further with now just one cut expected by the end of the year. The focus remains on inflation and this week

By the middle of summer, we should be leaving restrictive territory The direction of rates is clear, growth outlook has weakened There are plenty of concerns on geopolitical developments Exchange rate has an impact on inflation but ECB has no policy target on currency This just serves to reaffirm the diverging paths between the ECB

TradeCompass: EUR/USD Analysis – Euro FX Futures Today – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: Euro FX Futures (EUR/USD Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 1.0245 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for EUR/USD Futures Today Bullish Above: 1.0265 Why Bullish Above:If EUR/USD futures climb above 1.0265, the price would re-enter today’s developing Value Area and

Today is going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday as we don’t have any market moving release on the agenda and the markets will continue to trade based on the US NFP report. The only highlight today might be the US Consumer Inflation Expectations report from the NY Fed given the market’s sensitivity to

PBoC Governor Pan stated that China’s economy has tackled risks and challenges in recent years, adding that there is confidence and capacity to overcome economic difficulties. Interest rate and RRR tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity. Reaffirms China plans to increase the fiscal deficit. China will remain a driving force for the global

Earlier posts on what to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now: ICYMI – Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to cut rates in March Goldman Sachs now expect two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025, down from three ICYMI – Bank of America see no Fed interest rate cuts in 2025, risk

TradeCompass: S&P 500 Futures Analysis Today – 13 January 2025 Financial Instrument: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES Futures) Price at the Time of Analysis: 5842 Key Levels and Trade Scenarios for S&P 500 Futures Today Bullish Above: 5866 Why Bullish Above:If the price of S&P 500 futures or ES futures crosses above 5866, it signals

Earlier post on this is here: China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) held meeting – pledged to support yuan The Wall Street Journal reports now (may be gated): Officials said they aim to stabilize the yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level In a nutshell: Chinese foreign-exchange regulators reiterated their pledge to defend the yuan

Prior to the strong US jobs report at the end of last week, traders had priced in the first rate cut for June this year. In total, market players were looking for ~42 bps going into Friday at the time. Fast forward to today and the landscape has shifted quite dramatically. As things stand, Fed

Its been a notable session of new highs and lows. I’ve been tweeting them as they happened rather than posting them, but here they are for the record: GBP/USD hits a 14 month low under 1.2193 (GBPeso?) … and its since dropped lower AUD/USD falls under 0.6140 and to its lowest since April 2020 (ps.

Data dripping out from China’s Customs. Customs officials say that imports were impacted by global commodities price changes in H2 of 2024. Some countries’ ‘politicization of economic and trade issues’ and ‘abuse of export controls’ also impacted China’s imports last year. There is still plenty of space for China’s imports growth this year. More: yuan

Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge for December 2024: 0.6% m/m, the largest jump higher in a year prior 0.2% trimmed mean +0.4% m/m, highest since March 2024 2.6% y/y prior 2.9% AUD is little changed. Around 0.6155. *** The Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge is an independent, monthly measure of inflation in Australia. It is

Polymarket is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform for information markets, allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Essentially, it enables participants to express their opinions or predictions about various topics—such as politics, sports, finance, or global events—by buying or selling shares in the outcomes of specific questions. Singapore says ‘No”. Singapore has joined

It’s a holiday in Japan today, markets will reopen on Tuesday. News and data flow is basically zero. USD/JPY has fallen back from its earlier highs to approach the low seen on Friday in NY: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US administration imposed tougher sanctions on Russian oil: target more than 200 entities and individuals including traders, officials, insurance companies, hundreds of oil tankers UK will join the US in directly sanctioning energy companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas Via BBC (more at the link): Some of the measures announced by the US Treasury on

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Torsten Sløk is Apollo Chief Economist. In a note title “The Economy Is Re-Accelerating” Sløk notes the rising probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2025: employment report came in stronger than expected weekly same-store retail sales were better than expected Prices Paid for ISM Services came in higher than expected bottom line

New Zealand home consents for November 2024: +5.3% m/m -5.2% the prior month +4.8% y/y Stats NZ says that “While the number of homes consented each month has fluctuated, the trend has remained relatively steady for the last year” *** NZD barely moving. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come China’s exports are expected to have expanded at a faster pace in December than in November, with firms hurrying to move inventory to major markets ahead of Trump’s return to the White House this month and the accompanying fresh trade risks. Imports are expected to have fallen, for the third month in

Mon: N/A Tue: EIA STEO; CBR Policy Announcement; Indian WPI (Dec), US PPI (Dec) Wed: IEA OMR, UK CPI (Dec), EZ Industrial Production (Nov), US CPI (Dec), NY Fed Manufacturing (Jan) Thu: ECB Minutes (Dec), BoK Policy Announcement; Australian Employment (Dec), UK GDP (Nov), EZ Trade Balance (Nov), US Import/Export Prices (Dec), Jobless Claims (w/e

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: NY Fed Inflation Expectations. Tuesday: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US PPI. Wednesday: UK CPI, US CPI. Thursday: Japan PPI, Australia Employment report, UK GDP, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Import Prices, US NAHB Housing Market Index, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI. Friday: China activity data, UK Retail Sales, US

The most-interesting Federal Reserve decision of Trump’s Presidency is likely to be June 17, 2026. That is a meeting that contains economic projections and will also be the first meeting chaired by Trump’s FOMC Chairman. He has frequently lamented his choice of Powell, in part because the Fed Chair took a hard line against political

Crude oil is settling at $76.57 per barrel, up $2.65 or 3.56%. The price reached a 3- month high today. New U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s oil exports helped to contribute to the rise. The Biden administration imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, their subsidiaries, over 180 vessels, oil traders, oilfield service

The USDCHF is up for the 4th day in row. For a review of what that mean technically, click on the video below for all the risks, targets and “whys”. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks close sharply lower Key economic data releases next week. Earnings calendar begins. Crude oil settles at $76.57 Baker Hughes oil rig count -2 at 480 European stock markets struggle on Friday but post gains on the week Goldman Sachs expects Fed to cut by 50 basis points this year versus 75 bps previously

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower on the day. The declines were led by the Russell 2000 which fell -2.22%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -696.75 points or -1.63% at 41938.45 S&P index -91.21 point to rise 1.54% at 5827.04 NASDAQ index -317.25 points or -1.63% at

I’ve been writing since the turn of the year that it will be a ‘catch-down’ trade for the pound in 2025 after it mostly kept pace with the US dollar in 2024. It’s been a rough start to the year for GBP as it’s lagged substantially already, including another 100 pip decline today to 1.2211.

Monday, January 13th China: New Loans: 890B (previous: 580B) Tuesday, January 14th United States: Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%) United States: PPI m/m: 0.4% (previous: 0.4%) Wednesday, January 15th UK: CPI y/y: 2.6% (previous: 2.6%) United States: Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%) United States: CPI m/m: 0.3% (previous: 0.3%) United States: CPI y/y:

The weekly Baker Hughes Rig count declined in the current week. Oil rigs -2 to 480 Nat Gas -3 to 100 Total rigs -5 to 584 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The bulk of the pre-non farm payrolls numbers point to a soft reading but I think that’s priced into the consensus at +160K compared to +227K prior. The late Thanksgiving doesn’t make for an obvious risk but I would suspect it biases it higher, though we didn’t see that in ADP or ISM services. Seasonal

Reuters have the report that U.S. and Danish officials lobbied the developer of Greenland’s largest rare earths deposit last year not to sell its project to Chinese-linked firms. Little wonder Trump is keen on getting more US control over the island. Reuters report is here: US lobbied Greenland rare earths developer Tanbreez not to sell

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 level once again. That is likely to help keep a lid on price action until we get to the US jobs report later in the day. That especially since the dollar

The USDCAD fell initially after the US and Canadian jobs reports both of came out stronger than expected. However, after the focus returned to the effect on the US dollar, that helped to reverse the USDCAD pair back to the upside. The price is now extending to a new high and in doing so is

The NZDUSD has stretched lower in trading today as the pair is hit on “risk off” flows as well as higher rates.The currency pair is down around -0.70% and the biggest mover vs the USD today. Technically, the price is stretching closer to the 2022 low which reached 0.55105. The low price today has reached

The December jobs report easily beat expectations, highlighting the continued resilience in the US labor market as employers added 256,000 jobs, significantly above the consensus forecast of 160,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, coming in below economists’ expectations and reaching its lowest level since July. The US dollar rose 80-100 pips

Goldman now sees 50 bps in easing this year in light of the strong non-farm payrolls report. Previously they saw 75 bps in easing. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The December 2024 employment report is due from the US on Friday, January 10, 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is

BOJ leaks are appearing to be more and more of a thing and this looks to be one to test the waters in gauging the market reaction before their decision later this month on 24 January. USD/JPY has dipped from 158.35 to 157.80 on the headlines here. It is said that the BOJ is considering

It is unemployment day with both the US and Canada jobs reports being released. Economists forecast a rise of 160,000 payroll jobs in December, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings growth is projected to cool to 0.3% from the previous 0.4%. The ADP came in at 122K which was

Oil is ripping higher today, rising nearly 5% to the best levels since October. WTI crude oil is up $3.60 to $77.49 while Brent has cracked $80. A Reuters report appeared to kick off the move as it says the US will impose sanctions on 180 vessels transporting Russian crude, dozens of traders and two

The US jobs report came in stronger than expectations and that has led to yields moving sharply higher. The year is up 9.0 basis points they 10-year is up 8.6 basis points. For the EURUSD it fell to a new low going back to November 2022. The low price reached 1.0212. The 61.8% retracement of

Closing changes for the main European equity markets: Stoxx 600 -0.8% German DAX -0.5% France CAC -0.9% UK FTSE 100 -0.8% Spain IBEX -1.5% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.5% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.7% German DAX +1.6% France CAC +2.0% UK FTSE 100 +0.3% Spain IBEX +0.6% Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.0% The Italy MIB is

The market doesn’t think the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice this year in light of a strong finish to the year for jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and the economy added 256K jobs compared to 160K expected. Market pricing now shows that a May rate cut to a range of

Prior was 74.0 Current conditions 77.9 vs 75.1 prior Expectations 70.2 vs 73.3 prior 1-year inflation 3.3% vs 2.8% prior 5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.0% prior This is another body blow for stocks, those inflation numbers are a problem though they might reflect expectations about tariffs. This matches the highest since 2008. This is an

We can expect more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, in terms of strength, efficiency and timing To speed up fiscal spending in a bid to formulate actual spending China’s fiscal policy has abundant policy room and tools China has relatively big room of raising debt and deficit Once again, this is all very on the

US sanctions more than 180 tankers in Russia’s shadow fleet Sanctions Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas Senior Biden official says he expects sanctions to cost Russia upwards of billions of dollars per month Expects Russia to make every effort to circumvent sanctions but costs of doing so will pile up Sanctions also target dozens of traders,

There are still a couple of question marks about over-indexing on individual jobs months There was a very big jobs growth in private sector retail hiring, is that a sign of a stronger consumer or a one-off? I don’t see the jobs market as a source of inflation Inflation rate in the past six months

Prior 2.6% The Swiss jobless rate held steady in December, although the unadjusted rate did creep up to 2.8% – up from 2.6% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index moved to a low of 19143.64. That was down over 300 points on the day and in the process has moved within a swing area defined by recent swing lows of swing highs between 19119 and 19208 . A move below that area would open the door for further selling technically (see

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Energy stocks rally: Tech and semiconductors face pressure The stock market today exhibits a mixed landscape as a resurgence in energy stocks is contrasted sharply by declines in the technology sector, particularly within semiconductors. Investors and traders at ForexLive should note these sector dynamics when considering future moves in the market. 🌿 Energy Sector: Green

Judge sentence Trump to unconditional discharge over hush money case Imposes no jail or fine but sentence places a judgment of guilt on Pres. Elects record. Justice Juan M. Merchan sentenced Donald J. Trump to an unconditional discharge, a rare and lenient outcome in New York state courts, solidifying his status as a felon before

Headlines: What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? It’s all about the US jobs report today Gold eyes fourth straight day of gains with US jobs report in focus Fed’s Musalem pushes caution on further reducing interest rates BOJ reportedly still mulling over January monetary policy decision China vice finance minister says

Bank of America no longer sees the Federal Reserve cutting rates at all in 2025. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China’s December exports are expected to jump from November – beat the tariffs race Some chatter about on the potential for AUD/USD to drop under 0.60 Toyota unions to aim for higher wages, better conditions People’s Bank of China briefing next week – note for the diary PBoC pauses bond buying – more PBOC sets

Although yields have stabilized with the 10 year up 4.7 basis points, stocks continue to come under pressure with the NASDAQ index now down -400 points or -2.05%. The S&P index meanwhile is down -93 point or -1.57%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also lower by -2.10%. With 10 year yields up from 3.60% to

Fundamental Overview Gold made a new weekly high yesterday as the price broke above a key level. We have the US NFP and CPI reports ahead and they are going to move the market a lot so the recent breakout could turn into a fakeout pretty easily. The market’s pricing didn’t change much as roughly

The AUDUSD is breaking below the 2022 and 2024 lows. On the last day of the trading year, the price moved to a low of 0.61785. That was just above October 2022 low and 0.6170. Yesterday, the price moved to 0.6171 but once again found support buyers. Breaking below those level opens the door for

The USDJPY has been trading within a swing area between 157.66 and 158.86. Looking at the daily chart today, the low price came in just below the low of the swing area and 157.62. The high price reached just above the high of the swing area at 158.86. The swing area is wide but traders

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been consolidating around the lows after the quick drop following the FOMC decision in December as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. The Fed continues to place a great deal on inflation progress to proceed with further rate cuts as highlighted by Fed’s Waller this week.

China’s December 2024 trade data is scheduled for release on January 12, 2025, at 10:00 AM China Standard Time: 0300 GMT 2200 US Eastern time on January 11 China’s exports are expected to have expanded at a faster pace in December than in November, with firms hurrying to move inventory to major markets ahead of

S&P 500 futures are down 43 points, or 0.7%, ahead of the open. That’s better than I would have thought given the jump in jobs and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.75%, which is the highest since November 2023. The low of the pre-market came on the release but there has been some dip

Canadian PM Trudeau says ‘we would definitely respond’ if Trump does impose tariffs. says he does not want to see U.S. tariffs and does not want to see Canadian countermeasures. if Trump does impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, ‘everything the American consumers buy from Canada is suddenly going to get a lot more

Interest rate policy may be ‘near’ where it needs to be for the longer run Fed is ‘pretty close’ to meeting both its mandates Inflation moving towards target, growth showing momentum Jobs market weaker but still healthy Optimistic over growth and hiring prospects Optimistic inflation pressures will continue to ease He leans hawkish and he

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been stuck in a big range since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. The Fed continues to place a great deal on inflation progress to proceed with further rate cuts as highlighted by Fed’s Waller this week. Therefore, the market is

Prior month 50.5K Employment Change 90.9K vs 25.0K estimate. 3rd gain in the last 4 months Unemployment Rate 6.7% vs 6.9% estimate. Last month 6.8% Full time employment 57.5K vs 54.2K last month Part time employment 33.5K vs -3.6K last month. Average hourly earnings YoY 3.7% vs 3.9% last month Participation rate 65.1% vs 65.1%

Last month’s decision to cut rates was a “close call” The economic outlook now is much different from when the Fed started cutting rates last year The risk that inflation might get stuck between 2.5% and 3% has increased This matches up with their current policy stance as they are set to pause on cutting

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius spoke on Thursday: forecast a 2.5% growth rate for the US economy in 2025, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.1% attributes this positive outlook to his belief that the Trump administration will face challenges in implementing drastic cuts to immigration or the federal budget More (bolding is mine): Hatzius

Two-month net revision: -8K versus +56K prior Unemployment rate: 4.1% versus 4.2% expected and 4.2% prior Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.0855% vs 4.2457% prior Prior unemployment rate: revised to 4.2% from 4.2% Participation rate: 62.5% versus 62.5% expected U6 underemployment rate: 7.5% versus 7.8% prior Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m versus +0.3% expected and +0.4% prior

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been stuck in a big range since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. The Fed continues to place a great deal on inflation progress to proceed with further rate cuts as highlighted by Fed’s Waller this week. Therefore, the market is waiting

The precious metal is keeping a solid bounce off its 100-day moving average (red line) to start the new year, now trading up to $2,680 this week. A test of the $2,700 level beckons, before potentially revisiting the end-November and December highs around $2,725-26 next. A major positive for gold to start the year is

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: No change to the government’s stance to work closely with the BOJ on policy with an eye on the economy and prices. In deciding whether to declare a full exit from deflation, what’s important is to ensure Japan does not slip back into deflation again. Once we are able to declare

China’s central bank announced on Friday that it will temporarily halt treasury bond purchases due to a shortage of supply, leading to a rise in yields across various maturities. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) stated it would consider resuming bond buying based on supply and demand conditions in the government bond market. This decision

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.6% Italy FTSE MIB flat Meanwhile, US futures are keeping more cautious with S&P 500 futures seen down 0.3% currently. That is setting up for a more tentative and slightly cautious mood overall as the focus turns to the non-farm payrolls

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This follows from the gains yesterday, with US futures also looking fairly cautious ahead of the US jobs report later. That will be the make or break for risk sentiment as we look to wrap up the week. S&P 500 futures are seen currently down 0.4% while

The market came into the year expecting Federal Reserve officials to shift to a less-dovish stance. Deutsche Bank came into the year saying that the Fed wouldn’t cut at all and many were expecting the more-hawkish FOMC members to at least float the idea of a long-lasting trip to the sidelines. Instead, the message has

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

China’s SCIO will hold a press conference on Tuesday, January 14 to discuss the country’s high-quality economic development. event will feature PBOC’s Xuan Changneng (Defuty Governor) and SAFE’s Li Bin (Deputy chief) will address financial support for economic development Scheduled for 1500 China time: 0700 GMT 0200 US Eastern time That alphabet soup: SCIO =

The European session is basically empty on the data front today. The focus is on the US NFP report as it’s going to be a market moving release, although the US CPI next week should have a bigger influence on the interest rate expectations given that the Fed is placing a great deal on further

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Previously only Commonwealth Bank of Australia were tipping February, ANZ jump on board now. ANZ expects a 25bp interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia February meeting due to weaker inflation figures in Q4 ANZ forecasts trimmed mean inflation to print at 0.5% q/q in the Q4 data due this month – this

It’s a quiet data agenda ahead for the Asia session. Most will be awaiitng the US NFP report at 8.30 am US Eastern time. Household spending data from Japan will be of some interest. I’ll have more to come on this separately This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times

The background to expected further AUD weakness is: declining inflation measures published earlier this week, with more CPI data due on January 29 (Q4) weak retail sales data expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February (meeting is on the 17th and 18th) concerns over U.S. tariffs under

Both the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices closed down by 1.3% today and that makes it back-to-back weekly losses for major indices in China. The drop today erases the gains from earlier in the week and pours cold water on any hopes of a recovery in sentiment to start the new year: The bounce

The trend is clear in that the US labour market has been softening after a robust rebound in the post-Covid era. That is to be expected but we’re now approaching the stage in which market players had been expecting this to lead to a soft landing in the US economy since last year. Instead, the

PBOC temporarily halts government bond purchases in the open market starting January 2025 amid supply shortages, with resumption tied to market conditions. Hmmmm. Chinese bonds have been bid, PBoC probably not wanting to fuel that even more? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Sunday evening (January 12, 2025) US Eastern time at 2215, ECB board member Philip Lane will speak as part of a “policy dialogue” at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025, being held in Hong Kong. With monetary policy expected to turn more accommodative globally, policymakers may find themselves at a unique juncture to implement

The Federation of All Toyota Workers’ Unions has announced that it will seek greater improvements in wages and working conditions during this year’s wage negotiations compared to last year. The Bank of Japan is looking for workers to get higher wages and thus buy more and support inflation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Fed’s Schmid: We won’t likely get to 2% inflation until 2026 Fed’s Bowman: The Fed should be cautious in considering changes to policy rate Fed’s Schmid: Any further rate cuts should be gradual and data driven Why the Fed won’t pivot to neutral any time soon European equity close: Third gain in four days BOE’s

The December 2024 employment report is due from the US on Friday, January 10, 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is

Australian household spending in November 2024: +0.4% m/m expected +0.7%, prior +0.8% +2.4% y/y expected +2.5%, prior +2.8% Both m/m and y/y have missed. Earlier: Potential Interest Rate Cut in Australia: Analysts Divided AUD/USD little changed on the session so far; This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Politico have a good info piece up if you are interested: Donald Trump’s gambit to buy Greenland may sound ridiculous, but it’s not impossible. Its worth checking out in full, there are some interesting precedents and nuances. But, if you prefer, in summary: Buy Greenland: Trump could attempt to purchase Greenland if it declares independence

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Goldman Sachs has issued a cautionary note about the sustainability of the recent stock market rally. Strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned in a client memo that equities appear “priced for perfection,” leaving them increasingly susceptible to a correction. Rising bond yields, high valuations, and economic uncertainties could weigh on the market’s resilience, he noted. While Oppenheimer

Japan November Household Spending 0.4% m/m expected -0.9%, prior 2.9% -0.4% y/y expected -0.6%, prior -1.3% USD/JPY update, flatlining during the US afternoon holiday: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is a (quite high) degree of wishful thinking doing the rounds in Australia regarding the potential for a February interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The context is that the Bank has held the cash rate at 4.35% for 13 consecutive months. Reports about the place highlight that while one of

Standard Chartered consider Chinese equities a core holding. But, Chinese stocks are not without their problems currently. China grapples with deflationary pressures China is expected to counteract U.S. import restrictions by boosting exports to non-U.S. markets Additional stimulus measures are expected in order to drive domestic demand Stan Chart favours onshore equities over offshore ones,

The cryptocurrency market continues to experience a steep downtrend, marking its third consecutive day of losses. Bitcoin (BTCUSD), the market leader, has fallen approximately 12% over this period, crossing below a critical support level not breached in the last 50 days. The current trading range of $89,500 to $90,000 is pivotal, and analysts suggest a

EUR/USD Trade Idea: Fade the Rally Strategy The EUR/USD futures market is showing persistent bearish pressure as it trades near 1.03305, as this EURUSD analysis shows, with key resistance levels above and bearish momentum evident in the long-term performance. This creates an opportunity to fade any potential rally into key resistance zones for a short

The last stage to 2% inflation could be the most-challenging This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The topic of this speech was “Reflections on 2024: Monetary policy, economic performance, and lessons for banking regulation”. Supported December cut as a ‘final step’ in policy recalibration Says she could have supported no action in December, given lack of progress on inflation and strength in economy Prefers a cautious, gradual approach to adjusting policy

Prior -1.0%; revised to -0.4% That’s a positive rebound after the fall in output in October, with production of capital goods seen up 1.4%, consumer goods up 0.9%, and intermediate goods up 0.5% on the month. Even for energy-intensive industries, production there was seen up by 1.5% on the month. But compared to the same

Closing changes for the day: Stoxx 600 +0.4% German DAX flat France CAC +0.5% UK FTSE 100 +0.8% Spain IBEX +0.9% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% It’s been a good week in Europe despite the turmoil in the US. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer and producer inflation data from China for December 2024 PPI remains in deflation and CPI barely avoids it. Pretty much as expected from China. The People’s Bank of China is wary of providing too much stimulus, such as a rate cut, due to financial stability and yuan weakness concerns. A political consideration now is

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures +0.2% US futures are lower but keep in mind that the cash market won’t be trading today in Wall Street. That will leave European traders to their own devices, following the mixed showing in US indices yesterday. Tech shares were the laggard, so that is again keeping the

The USDCAD sellers had a shot earlier this week with breaks outside an up-and-down “Red Box” to the downside. The first move was on Monday. The 2nd on Tuesday. Each failed on the break The sellers had their shot. They missed. The price rise saw the pair’s price move above the 100 and 200 hour

In the European session, the only highlight is the Eurozone Retail Sales data although it isn’t a market moving release in general. In the American session, we don’t have much on the agenda so the focus will be on the Fed officials with five of them scheduled to speak today. As a reminder, the stock

It should be a quieter day in US markets today because of the stock market closure for Jimmy Carter’s funeral. That gives me a chance to revisit one of the most-memorable financial markets TV appearances of last year. The date was September 26 and the guest was Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper. Since inception, he’s

The comments today from Waller indicate that he still sees inflation falling to 2%. That’s not the kind of thing you hear before a central bank moves to neutral. The FOMC Minutes should offer more clarity on when officials will truly consider cutting rates again. The January 29 meeting won’t be that date with the

Current outlook calls for gradual, patient approach to rate cuts. Supported December Fed rate cut but was a close call. Fed not on preset path, policy well-positioned. Current outlook in line with Fed December forecasts. Economy in a ‘good place overall’ with notable uncertainties. Too soon to say what impact election will have on economy.

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost recently from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much though and Fed’s Waller yesterday kept the rate cuts

Russia says that Putin would most definitely welcome the idea of communicating with incoming US president Trump. However, there haven’t been any requests to do so for now. The Kremlin adds that it would be more appropriate to wait for Trump to take office first. Well, this is certainly one area that will garner more

A note from JPM last week argued that the dollar could keep rising, but also that its stretched and further gains are likely limited. It a conundrum, we await the straw hitting the camels back to break this trend. Summary of the note below, with various factors of influence I’m sure you’ll be familiar with.

This accompanies the regional economic assessment from earlier here. The BOJ says that while firms are seeing the need to stick to wage hikes, they are yet to decide on how much they would have to raise pay for this year. On the flip side though, some smaller firms are reserving caution due to the

This is a notable comments as Breeden voted with the 6-3 majority to keep rates unchanged at 4.75% in December. The market is pricing in a 65% chance of a cut on February 6 but that’s looking too low. I think one of the better trades of 2025 will be a ‘catch-down’ trade in the

The USDCHF is trading in a narrow range today (only 33 pips). However, the buyers remain in control after the bounce off support on Monday and gains over the last few days. The price had moved back into a swing area on the daily chart between 0.9112 and 0.9156. That area will need to be

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost recently from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much though and Fed’s Waller yesterday kept the rate cuts

Labor markets stabilized, are in a better place Job creation pace has normalized Fed has had success getting inflation down from peak Harker is scheduled for retirement in June and right now the market isn’t quite certain on whether or not there will be another cut before he gets to the exit. In any case,

Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.3% Euro area retail sales were only marginally higher on the month, though it isn’t immediately clear how much of this captures the sales from Black Friday and Cyber Monday. If it doesn’t, then that’s a poor showing and reaffirms softer household spending towards the end of last year. Here’s the

Meanwhile, the bond market will only be open until 1400 ET. Eamonn has the full list of market closures in the US here. Despite it being a market holiday of sorts, I would expect major currencies to stay active at least. And in terms of economic releases, we will still be getting the usual Challenger

The British Pound is extending the selloff that started yesterday and remains a significant underperformer among the majors. There was no fundamental catalyst behind the selloff. It was a technical one. Yesterday around noon, the UK 10Y yield made a new cycle high which increased the bearish momentum in the bond market. The British Pound

Fed can stay where it is for a little bit and let the data play out The comments from Fed officials this week have been more-dovish than many though, especially from Waller yesterday. I will have more thoughts on why that is later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The United States is holding a national day of mourning for Jimmy Carter today following his December 29 death. That’s led to a re-write of the economic calendar with the bond auction scheduled for today moved up and economic data released adjusted. SIFMA recommends an early close to fixed income trading at 2 pm ET

The US is observing a national day of mourning as former Pres. Jimmy Carter’s layed to rest. The New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Exchange will be close but the futures are open as is the US bond market. In US futures trading, the S&P futures are impying a move down -5 points. The

Well, they’re not wrong I suppose but there are domestic factors that have driven the rise in UK bond yields as well. The latest budget being of course one that market players are much alluding to. The high for 10-year gilt yields this week was 4.92% but even now at 4.83%, it is still at

Outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from UBS. Analysts at the bank argue that the December labor report, set to be released this Friday, and next week’s inflation data will offer further insights into the U.S. economy. Although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates at its early 2025 policy meetings,

The pound is once again the laggard in trading today and that is dragging GBP/USD down to test the low from April last year. The low then was seen at 1.2299 and that is precisely where we are at right now. Back then, price was somewhat defended by its 100-week moving average but we have

Prior €13.4 billion The German trade surplus picked up in November as exports were seen up by 2.2% on the month while imports are down by 3.3% on the month. Looking at the details, most German exports were to the US in November (€14.0 billion). Meanwhile, most imports were from China (€13.4 billion) even if

On January 9, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed to honour former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Reminder: NYSE, NASDAQ closed. CME hours impacted also. Bonds half day. Plenty coming up from the Fed according to the calendar I have seen.Some, or all, of thee may be rescheduled, but just

Yesterday I highlighted that bitcoin has held $92,000 (or near that level) on six separate occasions since breaking above $100,000 for the first time. Another test is unfolding now with it trading perilously close to that level and at the lows of the day. We’ve already broken yesterday’s low of $92,724 and that triggered some

Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman looks at the trashing of US bond prices, writing in a post titled: “Is There an Insanity Premium on Interest Rates?” “increases in long-term rates, like the 10-year Treasury rate, might reflect the horrible, creeping suspicion that Donald Trump actually believes the crazy things he says about economic policy and will

The regions that saw their assessment raised were Tohoku and Hokuriku. Meanwhile, the BOJ maintains the assessment for the other seven regions as seen above. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: The British Pound extends the selloff Reminder: It is a pseudo market holiday in the US today Weekly update on interest rate expectations Eurozone November retail sales +0.1% vs +0.4% m/m expected Germany November trade balance €19.7 billion vs €14.8 billion expected Germany November industrial production +1.5% vs +0.5% m/m expected Bavaria December CPI

Bitcoin Analysis for Today: Key Levels to Watch As of this analysis, Bitcoin Futures are trading at 94,685, offering a pivotal setup for traders and investors looking for directional opportunities. The price is consolidating around significant levels, and today’s movements may present actionable trades based on how Bitcoin interacts with key zones outlined below. Bullish

As financial markets head into 2025, traders face a landscape shaped by evolving macroeconomic trends, rising commodity demand, and Southeast Asia’s economic acceleration. With insights from Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, this article highlights key trading trends to watch in 2025, helping market participants navigate new opportunities and challenges with

easyMarkets, a leading CFD and Forex broker, is proud to announce that it has been recognised as “Best Fixed Spread Forex Broker” at the 2024 SmartVision Investment Summit in Egypt. This new achievement highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to providing traders with transparent, reliable and innovative trading solutions, including its signature tight fixed spreads. The

Prior 57.73k The headline figure is 11.4% higher than what is was in December a year ago. That brings the total number of job cuts for 2024 to 761,358 and that is markedly higher than the 2023 figure of 721,677 layoffs. If you exclude the blip during Covid in 2020, this will be the highest

I posted on this back on Monday this week: PBOC is set to issue a record volume of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month aiming to stabilize the yuan’s exchange rate amid growing pressures. Issuing offshore yuan bills is a strategy for absorbing excess liquidity in the offshore market, reducing downward pressure on

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures Analysis (January 9, 2025) Current NQ Market Overview Bearish Bias: Price is currently near 21,250, below the critical bearish threshold of 21,293. As long as price remains below this level, the bearish scenario is in control. Bullish Trigger: Bulls need to reclaim 21,293 minimum but moreso, 21,310 to shift the bias

EURUSD Analysis: Key Levels and Price Outlook The Euro FX futures (EUR/USD) are trading at 1.03280, maintaining a bearish bias as technical indicators on the daily chart signal selling pressure. This analysis highlights critical support and resistance levels and potential trading scenarios for EUR/USD traders. Bearish Outlook for EUR/USD 20 EMA Acting as ResistanceThe downward-sloping

HSBC Global Research has upgraded its outlook for Hong Kong stocks to “Overweight” and raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) from 23,420 to 23,870. The report highlights an improved economic outlook for China, with recent policy shifts signaling the central government’s commitment to stabilizing the economy, which is positive for the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

On January 9, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed to honor former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. The CME is more complicated. In brief: Agricultural and Interest Rate Markets: Closing early at 12:15 p.m. Central Time (CT). BrokerTec U.S. Repo and Treasury Products: Early closures at 2:30 p.m. CT and

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost recently from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much though and Fed’s Waller yesterday kept the rate cuts

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 40 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 97 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 47 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 63 bps (68% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 76 bps

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI 2.4% vs 1.9% y/y prior Hesse CPI 2.4% vs 2.0% y/y prior Saxony CPI 3.2% vs 2.9% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI 2.5% vs 1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI 2.6% vs 2.2% y/y prior We already got the December German CPI data

The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents shipping companies, announced a tentative six-year agreement that still must be ratified by union members. Info via Axios. This looks like it’ll avoid a work stoppage that would have hit ports that account for around half of all containers into and out

Recent: October 2024: Retail turnover increased by 0.6% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of growth. For November, preliminary reports indicates spending of nearly $7 billion during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. Factors Influencing November’s Data: Consumer Behavior: The lead-up to the festive season typically boosts retail sales. Early holiday shopping and promotional events

European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone reported in Corriere della Sera (an Italian daily newspaper) Article is here (in Italian). My poor translation and summary (Google wouldn’t help out!) … if I got it wrong let me know in the comments (in English or Australian please 😉 ) Structural Crisis in European Industry: Europe

The major US indices are ending the day mixed with the Dow and S&P higher, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 lower. Trading conditions were up and down volatile. Tomorrow the stock markets will be close in respect to former Pres. Jimmy Carter’s funeral. That will lead into the US jobs report on Friday. The

Participants indicated if data came in about as expected, it would be appropriate to continue to move gradually toward a more-neutral stance Participants indicated Fed was at or near point at which it would be appropriate to slow pace of easing Most see risks to employment and inflation goals as “roughly balanced” “Almost all” participants

US initial jobless claims 201K vs 218K estimate US December ADP employment +122K vs +140K expected FOMC Minutes: Participants saw gradual move to more-neutral stance if data as expected Fed’s Waller: Will support further cuts in 2025 but pace will depend on inflation progress More from Waller: Some of ongoing services inflation may represent lagged

Japanese workers’ base salaries saw their largest increase in 32 years, Japan wages data: Inflation adjusted real wages -0.3% y/y potentially paving the way for the central bank to raise interest rates this month, provided other data confirm a strengthening economic cycle. The labor ministry reported that base salaries rose 2.7% in November compared to

Prior month $19.24 billion revised to $17.32 billion Consumer credit $-7.49 billion versus expected plus $12.5 billion Revolving credit $-13.726 billion versus plus $15.151 billion last month Non revolving credit $6.237 versus $2.167 billion last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese wages data for November 2024 Total cash earnings +3.0% y/y expected +2.7%, prior +2.2% Overtime pay +1.6% y/y prior +0.7% Base salary, or regular pay, rose 2.7% in November fastest increase since 1992 As noted in the headline, inflation-adjusted real wages fell in November, down 0.3% prior -0.4% for the fourth straight month This

There are quite a few to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD with the big one to take at the 1.0300 level. That could very well act as a magnet for price action in the session ahead, before we get to US trading at least. Then, the ones at

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Analysis: Key Price Levels for January 9th, 2025 This article provides a focused analysis of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES), highlighting key levels and zones to help traders navigate today’s market. The guidance includes bullish and bearish thresholds, profit-taking targets, and an orientation on the significance of these levels based

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China inflation subdued despite fiscal stimulus. Structural & consumer sentiment challenge HSBC upgraded Hong Kong stock outlook to Overweight, raised its Hang Seng year-end target JPY remains supported after Japan base salaries saw their largest increase in 32 years China December CPI +0.1% y/y (expected +0.1%, prior +0.2%) US dockworkers reach deal to avert port

Nothing further for now. Same old This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data is here: China December CPI +0.1% y/y (expected +0.1%, prior +0.2%) Recap (summary of a Reuters report): Consumer Price Index: China’s CPI rose by 0.2% in 2024, matching the previous year’s growth and falling well below the 3% target. December CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, slowing from 0.2% in November and marking the weakest

British Retail Consortium(BRC) shop price sruvey for December 2024: -1% y/y, the sharpest fall in prices in more than three years expected 0.4%, prior -0.6% BRC cites: the later timing of Black Friday sales in 2024 distorted the year-on-year comparison December 2024 data included the final days of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales,

Australian retail sales November 2024 +0.8% m/m and +3.0% y/y AUD/USD is dribbling a little lower. The miss on estimates is being viewed in light of steep discoutning during the sales period, and yet still it’s a miss. RBA rate cut proponents grabbing hold of this data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The JPY is sneaking a little higher on the data earlier showing that base salaries for Japanese workers increased at the fastest pace in 32 years. This is being read as a positive input supporting the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. Some time …. 😉 Data here: Japan wages data: Inflation adjusted real wages

Posting this ICYMI: South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) is reportedly preparing to ease restrictions on institutional cryptocurrency trading. According to Yonhap news agency, the plan seeks to gradually allow institutional investors to open trading accounts on domestic cryptocurrency exchanges. Currently, South Korean regulations limit crypto trading to retail investors who have verified their identities

At the moment, the market is pricing in all the upside impacts of AI and robotics and trying to suss out the winners. The next conversation will be the losers. Nvidia is the most-valuable company in the world Elon Musk said: “Robotic taxis makes Tesla about a $5 trillion company… The Optimus Robot, I think,

Australian November 2024 trade data Most focus is on the retail sales data, but a nice expansion of the trade surplus evident in the trade data. Exports rose the most in 15 months. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The six-month averages of the major components shows: Bid to cover: 2.42X Tail: +0.7 bps Directs (domestic demand): 18.0% Indirects (international demand) 67.4% Dealers :14.6% The last auction yield came in at 4.535% Vail Hartman and Ian Lyngen from BMO on the auction says: Today’s $22 bn long bond auction will offer another litmus test

Adam Posen is an economist and President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He argues he expects the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of 2025, unless the Trump Administration’s aggressive use of tariffs and deportations triggers a recession. However, it’s more likely that inflation will rise due to the combined

Chinese inflation data is the focus. China’s National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the December 2024 Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today. The PPI is expected to remain in deflation while CPI flirts with it. Producer Price Index (PPI): In November 2024, China’s PPI declined by 2.5% year-over-year,

High-yield 4.913% WI level at the time of the auction 4.920% Bid to cover: 2.52X versus the six month average of 2.42X Tail: -0.7 basis point versus six month average of +0.7 bps Directs (domestic demand): 20.7% versus a six month average of 18.0% Indirects (international demand) 66.6% versus a six month average of 67.4%

The last two hours have been a ride for bitcoin traders. The cryptocurrency fell as low as $92,728 but the 92K figure has been a key area of support recently and it found strong buyers, rebounding to $94,500. The broader risk trade followed a similar pattern with US stocks falling and then recovering on the

Prior was -1178K Gasoline +6330K vs +1504K expected Distillates +6071K vs +597K expected Refinery utilization +0.6% vs -0.4% expected These are some big builds in products and that should weigh on energy. Private data released late yesterday: Crude -4022K Gasoline +7331K Distillates +3201K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand data – the ANZ World Commodity Price Index For December 2024 +0.2% m/m vs. +2.9% in November: NZD eased 1.6% in December, pushing up the NZD Trade Weighted Index by 3.6% m/m The y/y +15%. ** As part of the report is ANZ’s look at chipping costs: Global shipping prices were mixed in

The major US stock indices have erased the declines that saw the: Dow down -200.57 points at lows S&P down -26.39 points NASDAQ index is down -115.53 points The snapshot of the current market shows: D industrial average up +23.51 points or 0.06% at 42551.87. S&P index +7.25 points or 0.12% at 5916.28. NASDAQ index

The EURGBP has seen a run higher despite a sharp rise in the UK 10 year yield which saw the yield move to the highest level since 2008. The yield reached 4.821% today rising above the 2023 high of 4.755% in the process. The yield is currently at 4.813%. Although higher yield can be supportive

Tech Sector Holds Steady: Semiconductor Surge and Communication Slip Today’s stock market journey unfolds with a mixed bag in technology, resilience in certain sectors, and challenges in communication services. Here’s a closer look at the dynamics shaping the trading landscape. 📈 Semiconductor & Technology Sectors: Sparks of Green Semiconductor Stocks: Leading the pack, Nvidia (NVDA)

Five years have passed since the world experienced firsthand — not just through textbooks — what a pandemic is and how profoundly it can impact everyone, even those who never contracted the virus. This includes restrictions on movement, worsening economic conditions, rising unemployment, and supply chain disruptions that later drove up prices and forced central

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 -0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB flat The changes are at least better than what futures were suggesting earlier in the day at least. S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.2% for now, taking some of the edge off from the losses

Comments from the outgoing US Treasury Secretary: Labor market has cooled but it’s in a good state The main factor in inflation was shortages Spending on covid may have added a little bit to inflation Term premium in fixed income looks to have gone up, has begun to normalize Fiscal policy needs to be put

Gold is off to a strong start to the year, rising another $19 today to $2668. Gold has been able to make headway despite a broadly stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields. That dynamic will be challenged again today with the US Treasury selling 30-year bonds at 1 pm ET. Chinese bids are likely

Prior was -0.2% Sales +0.6% vs +0.0% expected Prior wholesale sales -0.1% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The pound was a surprisingly-strong performer in 2024 but I think there will be a catch-down trade in 2025. The strength last year was driven by a more-hawkish central bank but the stick inflation last year wasn’t due to a stronger economy (like the US) but structural factors. Now the growth outlook is deteriorating and

In the past week, Treasuries have picked up from where they left off in the late stages of last year. 10-year yields in the US are still on the rise and we’re now closing in on the highs seen in 2024 near 4.70%. The actual high last year was around 4.74% but that may not

Crude oil extended higher in trading today reaching the highest level going back to October 11. However the move to the upside did run into overhead resistance. The 200 day moving average (green line in the chart above) comes in at $75.25. The high price today reached $75.26. Sellers leaned against the moving average and

MUFG highlights three commodities trades for 2025, emphasizing a bullish view on gold, near-term upside for oil with medium-term downside, and bearish prospects for long-dated natural gas prices. Key Trades: Gold (Long Spot): Rationale: Anticipated US Fed rate cuts. Increased demand driven by US policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Outlook: Strong demand from financial institutions,

The AUD/USD has moved lower in today’s trading, breaking through and extending away from the 200-hour MA at 0.6223 and the 100-hour MA at 0.62306. This shift tilts the technical bias further in favor of the sellers, as the pair approaches key support levels near the lows from 2024 and the lowest levels since 2022.

The USD/CHF is trading higher today, driven by a stronger USD, as the pair moves decisively above its 100-hour moving average (MA) at 0.90834. If the price remains above this level, buyers maintain firm control. A break below the 100-hour MA and the 200-hour MA at 0.90548 would shift the bias back to the downside.

Is Gold a Buy or Sell? A Detailed Shorting Strategy for Micro Gold Futures (MGC) For those asking, “Is gold a buy or sell?”, this structured shorting plan focuses on the Micro Gold Futures (MGC) contract. This approach leverages selling the bounce at resistance levels while managing risk and securing incremental profits. With the MGC

Prior -12.6% Market index 168.4 vs 174.9 prior Purchase index 127.7 vs 136.7 prior Refinance index 401.1 vs 395.1 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.99% vs 6.97% prior After a big plunge in the week before, mortgage applications are falling further again to start the new year with purchase activity weighing this time. That is partially

The weekly US initial and continuing jobless claims data has been released: Prior week initial jobless claims 211K Initial jobless claims 201K vs 218K estimate. 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 213K vs 223.25K last week Prior week of continuing claims 1.844M revised to 1.834M Continuing claims 1.867M vs estimate of 1.867M 4-week MA

Will support further cuts in 2025 but pace will depend on inflation progress. Inflation will continue to make progress towards 2%. Base effects will improve inflation in 2025. Recent monthly and short-term data indicates improvement to come. Although the recent inflation progress has been slow, much of that is due to imputed prices for housing

The USD/CAD experienced significant volatility earlier this week, initially moving lower on Monday following the Trump tariff story and its subsequent denial. On Tuesday, the pair reversed back lower once again, before rebounding higher to close stronger on the day. During this back-and-forth movement, the price briefly moved outside a previously confined trading range (Red

Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis – January 8, 2025 Financial Instrument: Bitcoin FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: $96,095 Key Levels to Watch for Bitcoin Futures (BTC) Bullish Above $96,930 Why Bullish Above?A move above $96,930 would place the price above several key levels that currently act as resistance, yet also serve as price magnets pulling

The US ADP roulette and weekly jobless claims (yes, on a Wednesday) will be the main highlights for markets. That of course follows the ISM services PMI and JOLTS job openings data from yesterday. As such, European morning trade is likely to be more of a placeholder somewhat until we get to that. Major currencies

Fundamental Overview Gold remains confined in a range as the market continues to wait for the US NFP and CPI reports. Yesterday it seemed like we could get a break above the 2660 resistance but eventually the price got smacked back down following the hot US Job Openings and ISM Services PMI. The market’s pricing

The biggest loser today is sterling as cable is now down 0.8% to 1.2374. On the week itself, the pair is now down 0.3% as it erases the Monday gains and threatens back below the low last week. The April 2024 low near 1.2300 remains the critical support point at this juncture and it look

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much but traders no longer fully price in the next

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Long-term yields may have more of an inflation premium but Fed will fix that US deficits may also be driving long-term yields higher Some of ongoing services price inflation may represent lagged wage increases, which should ease Tremendous uncertainty around what will happen with tariffs Do not think ‘draconian’ tariffs will be implemented In the

The reading shows a more subdued end to consumer sentiment in Japan towards the end of last year. Looking at the details: Overall livelihood: 34.1 (previously 34.3) Income growth: 40.2 (unchanged) Employment: 41.2 (previously 40.9) Willingness to buy durable goods: 29.4 (previously 29.9) This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Quantum computing stocks are taking a beating today after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered a sobering assessment of the technology’s timeline, saying practical quantum computing applications remain “many years away” from commercial viability. Individual quantum names are seeing declines, with several suffering their worst single-day losses on record: Rigetti Computing plunged 41.5% IonQ tumbled 45%

The data is here: Australian November CPI 2.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.2%) More: AUD/USD towards 0.6220 after encouraging CPI data Comments from Capital Economics in response to the numbers comes via Reuters report: “The good news is that measures of core inflation suggest that underlying price pressures are indeed easing in earnest” if the result

This is the story that looks to have accelerated the dollar gains in the past 5 minutes. The report says that Trump is considering to declare a national economic emergency in order to obtain legal justification to slap large tariffs on US allies and adversaries. The declaration is said to allow Trump to construct a

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/GBP at the 0.8300 level. That is likely to keep price action in the pair more locked in around the figure level before the expiries roll off later in the day. For more information on how

The AUD/USD has reached a new low, testing the 200-hour moving average at 0.6225 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.6227. These levels are pivotal for determining the near-term direction for both buyers and sellers. If buyers defend this area, it would signal continued support, keeping them in the game. However, a sustained move below

Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) Technical Analysis – January 8, 2025 Current Price: 21,430 Key Levels to Watch for NQ Today Support Levels: 21,410: Yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL) is providing support. A sustained drop below this level could open the door to: 21,360–21,350: Next support zone. 21,000–20,975: Extended downside target if the selling pressure accelerates.

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 3 January -3.7% vs -12.6% prior Trump mulls a national emergency declaration to allow for new tariff program – report Cable turns lower on the week as dollar catches a bid The bond market stays in focus with US jobs report eyed Eurozone December final consumer confidence -14.5 vs -14.5

Prior was +146K Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.6% vs 4.8% prior Job-changers’ pay gains 7.1% vs 7.2% prior Services +112K vs +140K prior Goods +10K vs +6K prior This is a more-benign jobs report and should help to cool some of the inflation angst in the market. “The labor market downshifted to a more

Prior -€7.67 billion; revised to -€7.52 billion The French trade deficit narrowed slightly in November with exports seen up by 2.9% while imports were seen up by 1.8% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As the North American session begins, the USD extends its upward momentum. The US 10-year yield has climbed to 4.721%, a 3.7% increase, nearing its daily highs. This rise has contributed to reversing earlier premarket gains in US stock markets. The S&P 500 is now down approximately 21 points, while the NASDAQ has dropped close

November CPI 2.3% y/y vs. expected 2.2% and prior 2.1% Trimmed mean (a measure of core inflation) 3.2% y/y vs. prior 3.5% That lower trimmed mean, a guide to underlying (core) inflation is encouraging. AUD/USD dips a little on the release. *** As background top this I posted on why the monthly CPI is not

Prior +0.4% Looking at the details, the jump here largely owes to a spike in energy prices. If you strip that out, producer prices were only up 0.1% on the month. The breakdown shows a jump in energy prices by 5.4%, slightly offset by declines in prices for intermediate goods (-0.1%) and durable consumer goods

I popped up a post earlier that contains a detailed description of the difference between the monthly and quarterly inflation, and also why the quarterly is preferred. The post also had a quick rundown on recent inflation data and implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia. ICYMI: Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, January 8, 2025

USD/CNY has just touched the upper band (lower band for the yuan currency) of its daily trading range at 7.3325 for today. For some context, the PBOC fixed the pair at 7.1887 today here and it can fluctuate 2% either above or below the fix/midpoint. It’s a rough start to the year for China with

Nomura expects the FOMC minutes from December to highlight divisions within the Committee on the rate cut decision and 2025 policy outlook, alongside detailed discussions on fiscal policy impacts, neutral rate assumptions, and inflation risks. Key Points: Committee Divisions: While only Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented against the December 25bp cut, Nomura suggests three additional

Steve Hanke is a professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. On a Bitcoin reserve: It diverts weighting and savings into old masters that just, it just sits there and is never invested in bankable projects that actually produce anything and increase productivity in the economy. I’m completely opposed to it. I think it’s

In the European session we only have the Eurozone PPI data which isn’t a market moving release in general. The main events will be in the American session as we have Fed’s Waller speaking, the US ADP data release and later in the day the FOMC Meeting Minutes. 13:00 GMT/08:00 ET – Fed’s Waller (neutral

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been ranging for months between the 67.00 support and the 72.00 resistance as the market continued to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we had the Trump’s victory which might have been seen as bearish for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown in global growth as other countries

CNY is China’s onshore yuan. USD/CNY has hit its highest since September 2023: This comes despite People’s Bank of China efforts to support the yuan, continuing today with a fix below 7.2 again: PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1887 (vs. estimate at 7.3435) 7.1887*1.02 means it should top at 7.3324, its only permitted

In the midst of trump stirring up the hornets nest about Canada becoming the 51st US state, oil-producing province Alberta, which currently exports more than 4.3 million barrels of oil per day to the U.S., i looking to ramp up output and exports. The Alberta government is preparing to double the province’s oil output and

1300 GMT/0800 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before a Lectures of the Governor event hosted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in Paris, France As a Board Governor, Waller is a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Who are the Fed

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday from another set of hot data as the US Job Openings surprised to the upside and the prices paid index in the ISM Services PMI jumped to the highest level since 2023. The market’s pricing didn’t change much but traders no longer fully price in the next

The major U.S. stock indices ended the day with significant declines, with broader indices bearing the brunt of the selloff, led by the NASDAQ. Nvidia shares dropped 6.22%, retreating sharply after hitting a record intraday high shortly after the open. Other notable losses included: MicroStrategy: Down 9.94% Palantir: Down 7.81% Shopify: Down 6.50% Super Micro

China’s National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC): This year, we will increase efforts and expand the scope to implement two new policies. We will continue to support the updating of industrial energy equipment, energy and power, transportation, logistics, environmental infrastructure, education and cultural tourism, medical care, and the updating

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of bitcoin is continuing its run to the downside today, and has now traded below the rising 200-hour MA at $96883. The low just reached $96296. Traders will be eyeing that 200 hour MA level for bias clues. Stay below is more bearish. Fail on the move below the MA, and it could

Prior -13.8 Economic confidence 93.7 vs 95.6 expected Prior 95.8; revised to 95.6 Industrial confidence -14.1 vs -11.7 expected Prior -11.1; revised to -11.4 Services confidence 5.9 vs 5.8 expected Prior 5.3 Slight delay in the release by the source. The drop in economic confidence sees it fall to its lowest since November 2020, as

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on Wednesday Chinese equities tumble as regulators announce new trade-in subsidies Bank of England speakers Wednesday are addressing Prudential Regulation and Policy PBOC official promises to aid banks in lending money for trade-in initiatives China’s State Planner to expand the scope to implement two new policies Czech National

ETHUSD analysis: RSI signals oversold conditions amid potential trading range formation Ethereum (ETH) is at a critical juncture, with the ETHUSD pair reflecting key technical signals that traders and investors cannot ignore. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely-used momentum oscillator, is nearing oversold territory, aligning with a sharp decline in

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to continue raising interest rates over the coming years as inflation appears on track to sustainably reach its 2% target, according to former governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Info comes via Reuters reporting. Kuroda highlighted that: Japan’s economy is projected to grow by over 1% annually, supported by rising real

Prior -1.5% The big dip here comes as large-scale orders were toned down again in November, compared to the month before. Incoming orders for other vehicle construction (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles) were down 58.4% on the month and that largely contributed to the headline figure we’re seeing. This article was written by Justin Low

German DAX futures -0.3% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This comes after the heavy selling in Wall Street overnight, even if it was mostly from tech shares. That is weighing on the mood music on the day but is balanced out slightly with US futures holding just a little higher. S&P 500 futures are seen up

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fed’s Bostic from his monthly podcast “Economy Matters” says: Inflation is expected to gradually decline and approach the 2% target, but progress may be uneven. Inflation trends might show periods of stalling or more aggressive movement, reflecting variability in the data. A cautious policy stance will be necessary to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Ensuring

Equities are heavy across the region following the softness on Wall Street on Tuesday. Chinese shares in particular are under the hammer. We had a press conference today from the State Planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), People’s Bank of China and Ministry of Finance (MOFCOM). The NDRC announced plans to broaden the

1000 GMT/0500 US Eastern time: BOE Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive Officer of the Prudential Regulation Authority Sam Woods and BOE’s executive director, Prudential Policy, David Bailey participate in hearing on the UK financial services competitiveness and growth objective. *** While we’re here, the BoE’s Bank Rate: The current Bank Rate is

The item of interest today is the November monthly CPI reading from Australia. The quarterly CPI remains the gold standard for understanding inflation in Australia due to its comprehensiveness, stability, and historical consistency. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI provides valuable interim insights but is seen as a supplementary tool rather than a primary benchmark. the next

Prior -1.5% This makes it a double whammy in terms of German data alongside the industrial orders here today. Not even Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales were enough to salvage the month, even if retail sales are seen 2.5% higher compared to November last year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The monthly CPI data is not the critical piece of information, that is the quarterly data due on January 29. Still, though, there is encouragement from the November data, with the core rate having a chunk taken out of it: Australian November CPI 2.3% y/y (vs. expected 2.2%) Trimmed mean (a measure of core inflation)

The Czech National Bank, is the central bank and financial market supervisor in the Czech Republic. Governor Aleš Michl is reported as having considered Bitcoin as a potential diversification strategy for the country’s foreign exchange reserves, Via CNN Prima News interview: said he was considering acquiring “a few Bitcoin” for diversification, which wouldn’t count as

Two U.S. citizens have been arrested in Venezuela part of a group of what President Nicolas Maduro described on Tuesday as seven “mercenaries” Maduro spoke on state television. Maduro said the detained U.S. citizens were “very high level” did not provide further details or evidence of the arrests “Just today we’ve captured seven foreign mercenaries,

U.S. Treasury to auction $38 billion of 10 year notes at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the major components shows: Bid to cover 2.55X Tail -0.1 basis points Dealers 13.1% Directs 17.0% Indirects 69.9% The last auction high yield came in at 4.235%. The current 10 year yield is currently much

Major US stock indices close lower on the day led by the NASDAQ index Danish PM says Greenland is ‘not for sale’ Fed’s Bostic:Inflation is expected to gradually approach the 2% target,but progress uneven Bitcoin moves to new lows and dips below the 200 hour MA US treasury sells $38 billion 10 year notes at

PBOC Official Peng Lifeng: PBOC will help banks in increasing loans for trade-in initiative Earlier: China’s State Planner to expand the scope to implement two new policies More: China to provide up to 15% or price subsidy for smartphones This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

News overnight that Russia’s oil-product exports rose to a five-month high in December the end of seasonal refinery maintenance boosted flows Bloomberg (gated) with the info : Seaborne shipments of petroleum products totaled 2.24 million barrels a day last month 12% above November’s revised volumes and the highest since July Russia’s crude production in December

more to come — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.2 mn barrels Distillates +0.6 mn bbls Gasoline +1.5 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Shanghai Securities News sees chance of forceful PBOC monetary policy moves. This is in an opinion piece. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump today again talked about the US taking over Greenland and also said he wouldn’t rule out force to do it. “This is a deal that must happen,” Trump earlier wrote on Truth Social. Last month he also said “ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity”. The Danish PM said Greenland is ‘not

UBS says its maintaining its recommendation to capitalize on any further strength in the US dollar by selling it. Analysts cite recent shifts in expectations around Federal Reserve and US government policies have bolstered the USD since the release of their “Year Ahead 2025” report. However, they believe the dollar remains overvalued. Adding they don’t

Major US stock indices of continuing in their tumble with the NASDAQ leading the declines. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow and industrial average -0.63% S&P index -1.24% NASDAQ index -2.01%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -1.02%. The NASDAQ index is moving away from it’s 200-hour moving average of 19639.85 after breaking

The EUR/USD is extending to a new session low, nearing a key support zone between 1.0332 and 1.0343. Within this range lies the 100-hour moving average at 1.03379. A sustained move below this level would strengthen the bearish bias for today and potentially beyond. However, if buyers looking to manage risk step in at this

The euro looks to have traced out a double top at 1.0440 as the US dollar strengthens today. The pair is down 36 bps to 1.0354 and briefly touched below 1.0350 today. The major round of selling today came after strong JOLTS numbers and a slightly upbeat ISM services report with hot ‘prices paid’ numbers.

The US Treasury sold $38 billion of 10 year notes. Details of the auction showed: High yield 4.680% WI level at the time of the auction 4.678% Tail +0.2 basis points vs six-month average of -0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.53X vs. six-month average of 2.55X DIrects (a measure of domestic demand) 23.0% vs.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7 from 2.4% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on January 7, up from 2.4 percent on January 3. After recent releases from the US

Eurostoxx -0.2% Germany DAX -0.1% France CAC 40 -0.3% UK FTSE -0.6% Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB -0.9% The overall risk mood is more cautious today after the late selling in Wall Street yesterday. Tech shares still held on for gains but that hasn’t translated to much optimism in the new day. S&P 500

iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 The No.1 Online Trading Expo in MENA iFX EXPO, creators of international online trading expos, are set to kick off the new year with another edition of their Dubai event. On January 14th, iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 will launch with an iconic welcome party at Bla Bla Dubai from 19:30 to

Germany’s construction sector closed out the year firmly in contraction territory. The headline reading is an eight-month low as home building activity continues to be the main drag. The outlook for this year is not great as firms are continuing to expect overall activity to stay in decline in 2025. HCOB notes that: “For the

Swiss CPI data met expectations today, coming in at -0.1% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year. These figures reinforce the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank, likely supporting the USD/CHF amid ongoing concerns about higher U.S. inflation. In trading, the pair – before the data – dipped to a swing level around 0.90217, defined by highs

Trump says they will be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. He also said he told Wayne Gretzky to run for the Prime Minister of Canada. “We’re gonna try and have a policy where no windmills are being built.” We will have very serious tariffs on Mexico and

When asked for assurance that he will not use military or economic coercion as he tries to get control over Greenland, President-elect Trump said he cannot assure of either of these two. Adds: Needs Greenland for protection purposes He would consider Tariffs on Denmark over Greenland Denmark should give Greenland up He has added: NATO

The AUDUSD bottomed for 2024 on the very last day of the trading year (which is unique). The price bounced higher off that low and in doing so was able to extend above a swing area off the daily chart between 0.6269 to 0.6282. See the red numbered circles on the chart below. The AUD/USD

Canada’s federal government is weighing early release of a proposed list of American goods that would be targeted by retaliatory Canadian tariffs if Trump hits Canada with tariffs. Report comes via Canadain media (gated) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Today will be a big test of real-money demand for 10-year US notes. The Treasury will sell $39 billion in a new issuance at 1 pm ET with the results minutes later. Yields are higher by 8.1 bps today to 4.69%, which is the highest since April. A weak result would put the April high

Trump is speaking at Mar-a-Lago at the top of the hour and he’s going to announce a $20 billion investment in US data centers from the UAE, according to CNBC. The amount of money going into US data centers is truly awe-inspiring, including an $80 billion investment this year from Microsoft. The data center announcement

The stronger US data with ISM nonmanufacturing PMI rising to 54.1 from 52.1 and the JOLTS job openings increasing to 8.098 million versus 7.700 million estimate, has yields moving higher, stocks moving lower and the US dollar moving higher. Two year yield is at 4.30% up 2.9 basis points, and the 10 year yield is

Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.3% HICP +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +1.7% The headline reading is the same as it is in November, with services inflation also seen steady at 2.3% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 52.1 Employment 51.4 vs 51.5 prior New orders 54.2 vs 53.7 prior Prices paid 64.4 vs 58.2 prior Business activity 58.2 vs 53.7 prior Supplier deliveries 52.5 vs 49.5 prior Inventories 49.4 vs 45.9 prior Backlog of orders 44.3 vs 47.1 prior New export orders 50.1 vs 49.6 prior Imports 50.7 vs 53.8

It’s a big week for US economic data that ramps up at the top of the hour with the simultaneous releases of: ISM services JOLTS job openings The consensus on the services PMI is an improvement to 53.3 from 52.1, but that’s still well-below the October high of 56.0. This report has been volatile lately

US stock markets opened higher but have quickly been hit by heavy profit taking. The S&P 500 is now down 45 points, or 0.7%. The big drag is coming from Nvidia, which was trading higher by 3% in the pre-market and opened at a record high following a keynote speech from CEO Jensen Huang yesterday.

Prior month 7.744M revised to 7.839M JOLTs job openings for November 8.098M vs 7.770M estimate. Details Vacancy rate 4.8% versus 4.6% last month Quits rate 1.9% versus 1.8% last month. Hires 3.3% versus 3.3% last month Separations rate 3.2% versus 3.3% last month Looking at the trend from the chart above, the JOLTS were probably

The PBOC bought gold for the second consecutive month, data released earlier today showed. Reserves rose to 73.29 million fine troy ounces from 72.96 million fine troy ounces last month. The pace of buying roughly doubled as the increase of 0.33m oz compares to the rise of 0.16m oz in November. The value of Chinese

Prior was -0.92B (revised to -0.54B) Exports rise 2.2% to $66.1B vs $64.22B prior imports up 1.8% to $66.4B vs $65.14B prior Trade surplus with US C$8.2B vs C$6.2B prior as pharmaceutical exports to US jump 11.9% Gold exports hit record C$4.9B Consumer goods imports rise 3.8% Service exports dip 0.2% to C$18.2B This article

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +2.7% No changes to the core estimate as euro area inflation continues to hold stubborn in between 2% to 3% to end last year. Of note, services inflation remains an issue as it ticks a little higher to 4.0% on the month, up from 3.9%

S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% shortly before the open. The main driver of the gains is Nvidia, which is set to be the world’s largest company (once again) at the open. Shares are up 2.6% in the pre-market after unveiling a series of products late yesterday. One drag is Tesla, with shares down 1.6%

German DAX futures -0.5% UK FTSE futures -0.6% The late selling in Wall Street overnight is to blame, with only tech shares left to keep things afloat by the end of yesterday. US futures are also keeping more tentative, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% currently. So, that is keeping the overall mood in a

The USD/CAD has declined in today’s trading, breaking below the lower boundary of the swing area between 1.4334 and 1.4348. For a bullish bias to emerge, the pair would need to climb back above this zone, signaling a potential failure of the break outside the “Red Box” that has defined recent trading ranges over the

The US dollar rose across the board after a pair of upbeat economic data releases. The main driver was JOLTS, with job openings climbing to 8.098 million from 7.700 million in what could be the start of a pickup in jobs. Secondarily, the ISM services report rose to 54.1 from 53.3 with an uncomfortable rise

Prior 1.3% HICP 1.4% vs 1.6% y/y expected Prior 1.5% Core CPI Y/Y 1.8% vs. 1.9% prior Core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) was +1.8% (from +1.9% in the previous month) and inflation excluding energy was +1.7% (from +2.0% in November). In 2024, the average annual rate of change of consumer prices, measured by

That compares with their November holdings of 72.96 million fine troy ounces. In terms of reserves value though, that has fallen from $193.43 billion in November to $191.34 billion as of December. As a side note, do be mindful that these are the numbers that China wants you to see. There was a period last

📈 Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a vibrant picture of mixed fortunes across sectors, with semiconductors driving significant gains thanks to standout performances from Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU). Meanwhile, the consumer electronic sector sees a dip with Apple (AAPL) struggling, highlighting sector-specific challenges. 🔋 Semiconductors: Nvidia leads the charge with

Trudeau gone, Carney says he thinking about stepping up to be PM: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.7% Core CPI +0.7% y/y Prior +0.9% Swiss inflation continues to stay at manageable levels but at some point, the worry might be that price pressures could become too depressed. The SNB has to remain steadfast in managing the franc in that respect as such. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ remarks on the result: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 3.6pts in the first week of 2025, reaching a top-three result since the start of 2023. We expect more upward momentum this year as tax cuts, rising real wages and rate cuts support households. 87.5 is still very pessimistic (100 is the neutral level). This

Goldman Sachs headline is here from Monday: Goldman Sachs trim its gold forecasts, gold not to reach US$3000 in 2025 Adding in a little more now: GS cite a slower expected pace of central bank monetary easing policy in 2025 This will trim back demand for gold a little, GS noting the impact will hit

The USD is mixed today with the greenback lower vs the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD and higher vs the JPY and CHF. The biggest movers are the AUD (USD -0.53%) and the NZD (USD -0.57%). Yesterday, the USD was mostly lower after the market reacted to a report that Trump tariffs would be

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 55.2 UK construction activity slows to six-month low as house building keeps a drag on the overall sector. Total new work was seen rising at its slowest pace since June but at least business optimism picked up after hitting a 13-month low in November. S&P Global notes that: “December data highlighted a loss of

Tesla Stock Pre-Market Analysis Price at the Time of Analysis: $402.77 Key Levels to Watch for Tesla Bullish Above $416.50 Why Bullish Above?A move above $416.50 puts the price above the Value Area Highs of today (so far), yesterday, and two days ago. This clearly marks the top of the range, and a breakout above

Inflation expectations for the year ahead rose from 2.5% in October to 2.6% in November, with inflation expectations for 3 years ahead also rising to 2.4% – up from 2.1% in the month before. Meanwhile, growth expectations have turned more negative with the year ahead seen at -1.3% as opposed to -1.1% in October. It’s

Russian data shows it cut December oil output below OPEC+ target. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain supported since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. After the rally during the low volume Christmas holidays, we are now seeing a pullback pretty much across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much with roughly two rate cuts priced

FULL REPORT Prior month $-73.8 billion international trade balance for November $-78.2 billion versus $-73.8 billion last month. Vegas since September Goods trade balance for November $-103.5B versus preliminary $-102.8 billion. Prior month $-98.26 billion. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than

The dollar is keeping steadier in trading today after a mixed showing yesterday. Trump denied softening his stance on tariffs but while yields rebounded, the dollar was still left to lick its wounds from earlier. USD/JPY though is a standout as it snapped back hard, now rising above 158.00 before a couple of verbal interventions

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Analysis and Key Levels Financial Instrument: S&P 500 E-mini FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 6014 The S&P 500 E-mini Futures are currently trading near 6014, reflecting a pivotal moment in the market as price hovers between critical levels. This analysis highlights key bullish and bearish zones, along with profit-taking strategies

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain supported since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. After the rally during the low volume Christmas holidays, we are seeing a pullback pretty much across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much with roughly two rate cuts priced in

Crude oil futures are settling at $73.56 which is down -$0.40 or -0.54%. The high price today reached $74.96. That high was within shouting distance of the falling 200-day moving average is $75.34 ($0.38). The price has not traded above the 200-day average since October 8 (the break above that MA failed on that day).

It’s a mixed start to the new year for gold but yesterday’s drop was not too bad overall. The precious metal fell as the dollar recovered back some ground alongside bond yields, as Trump denied going soft on tariffs. The good news for gold buyers is that from a technical standpoint, the drop did not

Russian data shows it cut December oil output below OPEC+ target Italy December preliminary CPI 1.3% vs 1.5% y/y expected Eurozone November unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Eurozone December preliminary CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected UK December construction PMI 53.3 vs 54.4 expected Inflation expectations over the next year rose in November –

FX option expiries for 7 January 10am New York cut Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a new series of gaming chips The PBoC is steadfast in not allowing further yuan weakness – here’s why Recap – Japan’s Finance Minister warns against speculative yen selling Fed’s Barkin speaking on Economic Forecast on Tuesday Japan verbal intervention

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain supported since the last FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. After the rally during the low volume Christmas holidays, we are now seeing a pullback pretty much across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much with roughly two rate cuts priced

NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Nasdaq 100 E-mini FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 21,725 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 21,760 Why Bullish Above?A move above 21,760 indicates price is surpassing yesterday’s VWAP and today’s developing Value Area High (VAH). This suggests buyers are gaining control, as price trades above

Prior 6.3% The jobless rate in the euro area holds steady but this will be one spot to watch in the months ahead in case labour market conditions in Germany and France start to weigh more heavily amid their stuttering economies. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia’s Digits: A game-changer for AI accessibility and stock investors Nvidia’s unveiling of the Digits personal AI supercomputer at CES 2025 marks a transformative moment in the democratization of artificial intelligence. Priced at $3,000 and slated for release in May 2025, Digits offers unparalleled AI capabilities in a compact, desktop-sized device. For Nvidia stock investors,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Ethereum Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Ethereum FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 3,690 Key Levels to Watch in ETH Futures Bullish Above 3,733 Why Bullish Above?A move above 3,733 signals that the price has surpassed yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH), a critical resistance level. This breakout could indicate buyer strength and open the

Australian November 2024 Building Permits -3.6% m/m expected -1.0%, prior +4.2% +3.2% y/y prior +6.1% Private sector houses fell 1.7% (prior -5.2%), to 9,028, while private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 10.8%, to 5,285. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI – reports Monday US time on OPEC oil supply dipping a touch in December. Info via Bloomberg (gated). OPEC’s crude oil production declined in December, driven primarily by the UAE’s efforts to implement supply cuts aimed at stabilizing global oil markets. Output fell by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.05 million bpd, with

Bank of America writes about its China outlook for the year ahead and says: “We advise investors to stay vigilant, start defensive (high yield value) in early 2025, and add quality beta on major corrections and/or strong stimulus. If credit growth accelerates notably in 1Q25, China market could potentially see a more sustained rally in

US stocks close mixed. Dow down modestly. Nasdaq leads. Crude oil settles at $73.56 How Bank of America sees the China trade unfolding in 2025 Bitcoin back above $100,000. What next technically speaking? The gloomy start to the year for China continues with today’s reversal US sells 3-year notes at 4.332% vs 4.320% WI Deutsche

Dow Jones Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Dow Jones Futures / E-mini Dow JonesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 42,960 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 43,040 Why Bullish Above?A move above 43,040 indicates price is surpassing the Value Area High (VAH) from two days ago, signaling buyer strength. This level represents a critical

Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Bitcoin FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 102,690 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 103,600 Why Bullish Above?A move above 103,600 signals that the price has surpassed the Value Area High (VAH) of yesterday. This level acts as a key resistance zone; breaking above it suggests buyers are

The Treasury department is out with a statement saying that Yellen raised the matter of “malicious” cyber activity carried out by Chinese state-sponsored actors in said meeting. Adding that there was an unspecified amount of computers at the Treasury that had been compromised by Chinese hackers last month. That occurred after a breach of its

Russell 2000 Index Futures Analysis for Today Financial Instrument: Russell 2000 Index FuturesPrice at the Time of Analysis: 2,280 Key Levels to Watch Bullish Above 2,290 Why Bullish Above?A move above 2,290 indicates price has surpassed the Value Area High (VAH) of the last two days. This signals a potential shift in market sentiment, with

In the European session, the focus will be on the Swiss CPI and especially on the Eurozone CPI as the market’s pricing for the ECB remains very dovish. In the American session, the attention will switch to the ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings. 07:30 GMT – Switzerland December CPI The Swiss CPI

The price of Bitcoin fell below a swing area and 38.2% retracement between $92,092 and $92,442 and did the same thing on December 31. Both breaks failed. The inability to extend and stay below that level gave buyers a reason to buy technically. The price started to extend higher. That move saw the price move

Takeshi Niinami is the CEO of Suntory but he also serves as the head of the Keizai Doyukai business lobby – one for leading executives – and also the head for Japan’s chamber of commerce and industry. He is out saying that wage growth this year at big firms will likely match levels similar to

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for December 2024: Total sales +3.2% y/y, biggest jump since March 2024 November was -3.3% Note, Black Friday fell in the BRC’s December period in 2024 and in November in 2023, distorting year-on-year comparisons Like-for-like sales +3.1% y/y November -3.4% Summary: Black Friday boosted retail sales in late 2024, with

Not seeing much news on the yen at all, apart from what has already been posted. There is some news about on Nippon Steel: The firm’s CEO says we believe a fresh review by new CFIUS members under the incoming US administration could lead to a better understanding Background to this is US President Biden

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan finance minister Kato: Won’t comment on forex levels. Recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves. Important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Alarmed over FX moves, including those driven by speculators. Will take appropriate action against excessive moves. I bolded some of those words, these are the signals used to convey concern

FX analysts at Deutsche Bank today highlight three political developments: The WaPo article highlighting a narrowing of tariffs (and Trump’s denial) Trump’s preference for “one big beautiful bill” Trump’s plan to finance tax cuts with tariffs This year will defined in large part by the policy mix that is delivered by President-elect Trump, DB writes

1300 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast: Launch 2025 Barkin spoke on Friday: Inflation still not back to target, more work to do US debt is large and growing and puts pressure on long rates Says he is in

There isn’t much on the option expiries board for today. As such, trading sentiment will continue to focus on the early positioning plays to start the week. The dollar was a little weaker on tariff hopes but then Trump came out to deny that here. The bond market continues to stutter though, with yields moving

USD/JPY has dribbled off its session high after verbal intervention remarks. Japan verbal intervention to support the yen – Fin Min Kato will take action Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated concerns about speculative yen selling as the currency hit 158.40 per dollar. This is not far from 160, a level that triggered intervention six

USD/JPY has hit highs above 158.40. I don’t know how effective verbal intervention will be, but Japanese authorities will give it a shot regardless. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At CES 2025, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a new series of gaming chips, the RTX 50 series, based on the company’s advanced ‘Blackwell’ AI technology. Designed to enhance graphics realism, the chips improve visual details such as shaders, adding lifelike imperfections to objects, and generate more realistic human faces in games. The chips range

The major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average down marginally while the NASDAQ index leads the advances. A look at the numbers shows: Dow industrial average -25.57 points or -0.06% at 42706.56. S&P index +32.91 points or 0.55% at 5975.38. NASDAQ index +243.30 points or 1.24% at 19864.98 Russell 2000-1.82

China is resisting market pressures to allow the yuan to weaken, viewing the potential downsides as outweighing the benefits. While the yuan depreciated 2.8% against the dollar in 2024, its trade-weighted renminbi index rose 4.2%, suggesting it remains relatively strong compared to other currencies that have fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar. The People’s Bank

TD Securities with a controversial view: “We don’t think that local politics are driving CAD all too much.” Sheesh … the jump for CAD was pretty clearly related to the news of Trudeau to resign. Anyway. More. TD says it remains bearish on CAD, despite Trudeau leaving office: “For CAD to benefit from any change

Justin had the bombshell German CPI data on Monday: Germany December preliminary CPI +2.6% vs +2.4% y/y expected For some context, it was at 2.7% back in September. Stagflation much? Ugh. To emphasize the jump in inflation, Spain’s December CPI also came in faster-than-expected price at 2.8% (2.6% expected) This is going to cast doubt

Snippet of info from Goldman Sachs. Their projection for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts this year: now expect 75 basis points of cuts in 2025 down from projecting 100 GS say they see underlying inflation trending lower GS add that they are skeptical that Trump’s likely policy change will lead to higher interest

The week started strong for the oil market on global growth hopes after the WaPo report downplayed Trump’s tariff ambitions. But crude ran into sellers right at the $75.00 level and then Trump denied the report. That meant that $74.99 marked the high for the day for oil and it’s reversed lower to $73.25. At

This auction was moved up by a day because of Jimmy Carter’s funeral. Prior was 4.117% Bid to cover vs 2.58 prior All three auctions of threes tailed in Q4 and we start off Q1 with another one. The market might forgive this one given the scheduling but that raises the stakes for sales later

Officials from: the People’s Bank of China the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) China’s Ministry of Finance Will hold a briefing at 10 am Beijing time on Wednesday, January 8, 2025 0200 GMT 2100 US Eastern time Topics will include: expansion of consumer goods trade-in program This article

North Korea launched a missile yesterday: North Korea has fired another ballistic missile South Korea media reporting today that another is planned ahead of January 20. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD moved sharply higher earlier today helped by the Washington Post article on the Trump tariffs. The news was more dovish and less inflationary and the USD and yields moved lower. For the EURUSD the pair extended above the 100 hour MA (at 1.03403), 200 hour MA at 1.0374, 38.2% at 1.03783 50% of

Its going to be a light data agenda during the Asian session for today. I’ve stuck a box around one thing that’ll come later from China. Justin will pick it up. FX reserves data include data on gold purchases, which is much awaited. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) typically publishes updates on its gold

There has been a round trip in a number of risk assets on the Trump tariff story and the subsequent denial. Stock markets have largely held up but that could be changing as we enter the latter parts of the day. The S&P 500 is up 33 points to 5975 after rising as high as

US-listed China ETFs are struggling today, erasing earlier gains. There was some optimism on the report about Trump softening tariffs but the President-elect later denied that report and China is back in the doldrums. The MCHI ETF is now 2% lower and at the worst levels since late September. There are some FX impacts in

Is Crude Oil Futures a Buy or Sell today (06 Jan, 2025)? Is Gold Futures a Buy or Sell Today (06 Jan, 2025)? Bank of America see potential for a strong China equity rally in H2 2025 PBOC is set to issue a record volume of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month Goldman

Prior was +0.2% Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.2% vs +0.2% prior Durable goods orders -1.2% vs -1.1% preliminary. Last month was +0.8% Durable goods ex transportation -0.2% vs -0.1% preliminary. Last month +0.2% Durable goods ex defense -0.4% versus -0.3% prior Durable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.4% versus +0.7% preliminary. Last month

German DAX futures +0.2% French CAC 40 futures +0.3% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This comes with US futures also seen marginally higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%. This of course follows from the stronger gains in Wall Street at the end of last week, largely led by tech shares though. This article was written

The USDCAD has had a volatile trading today as tariff news from Pres.-elect Trump sent the dollar lower and then higher, and word of the resignation of Canada PM Trudeau also contributed. Technically, the price moved lower on the tariff news taking the pair below a “Red Box” (see chart below) that has defined the

Canada’s Prime Minister announced that he intends to step down, as previously reported. Highlights: Says Governor General agreed House of Parliament will be prorogued until March 24 Process will begin to select a new Liberal leader Removing me should decrease the level of polarization and allow people in the House to focus on serving Canadians

The USD/CHF pair experienced a sharp drop following a Washington Post article reporting that Trump is considering global tariffs targeting only “critical materials.” This news pushed the pair below its 100-hour moving average at 0.9072 and its 200-hour moving average at 0.90354, reaching a low of 0.90077, within a swing zone between 0.8997 and 0.9011.

I wrote about the Trump tariffs report earlier and it’s been weighing on the US dollar. That’s reversed now as Trump writes: The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it’s wrong. It’s

Trump denied the Washington Post report on tariffs but the market believes the reporting, not the President-election. European stocks posted a strong day: Stoxx 600 +0.9% German DAX +1.5% France CAC +2.3% UK FTSE 100 +0.2% Spain IBEX +1.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.9% The STOXX 600 is at the best levels since Dec 18. This

The US dollar is softening today in part due to a Washington Post report that says Trump is considering putting on global tariffs but only on ‘critical materials’. The report includes a relatively short list that highlights three areas and 11 specific things: Defense industrial supply chain: Steel Iron Aluminum Copper Critical medical supplies: Syringes

In the video above, I take a look at both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Both pairs moved lower into the yearend reaching new lows for the year on the very last day of the calendar year. In the first few days of 2025, the price has moved higher with strong gains earlier today coming with

US 10-year yields are up 3.5 bps to 4.63% and verging on the highest levels since April. I’m watching the signals coming out of Congress very closely and gauging the market’s reaction. As I’ve long written, the three economic priorities of Trump have been: Stock market gains/GDP growth Bringing down the trade deficit Bringing down

Bernanke said that the policies set out by Trump may not necessarily cause a major shift in inflation dynamics. He argued that: “I agree Trump policies, whatever their merits on public-finance grounds, probably will be modest in terms of their effect on the inflation rate. Barring some very unusual situation, including geopolitical risks, it doesn’t

Activity in China’s services sector expanded at a faster pace in December, buoyed by accelerated growth in demand, Services PMI 52.2 in December 2024 expected 51.7 prior 51.5 Activity Growth: Driven by stronger domestic demand and promotional efforts, new business inflows grew at the quickest pace in five months. Challenges: Export business declined for the

CTV News reports that Trudeau will seek to prorogue parliament until March 24 as he tries to avoid a general election while Liberals select a new leader. That’s not much time to run a leadership campaign. It’s also not clear if the Governor General will allow him to prorogue at all. This article was written

On the weekend, the rumours continued that Trudeau was on the way out. Now it’s virtually confirmed as the CBC reports that Trudeau will hold a press conference at 5:45 pm ET (2245 GMT) (Update: They now say it will be at 10:45 am ET) and announce he intends to step down as party leader,

The first lawsuit will be to challenge unlawful political influence, asking the courts to set aside the CFIUS review process and US president Biden’s blocking order. Nippon Steel claims that its legal actions are necessary and they are confident that they have a strong case to rightfully close out the proposed transaction to acquire US

Australia Judo Bank / S&P Global data for December 2024. Services PMI comes in at 50.8, 11th consecutive month of growth November was 50.5 flash was 50.4 (more on the preliminary reading is here) From the report, in summary: Services activity growth aligned with stronger new business, supported by rising market demand. Export orders increased

NASDAQ Price Prediction and Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Today. Do not short yet… The NASDAQ 100 E-mini futures were up already by over 1.5% today, its high so far near 21,850 at the time of this analysis. This strong performance reflects growing optimism in the broader market and positions the NASDAQ as a critical

Fundamental Overview Despite the spike lower triggered by the last FOMC decision, gold didn’t extend the fall and remained confined in the range between the 2600 support and the 2721 resistance. The FOMC decision was perceived as more hawkish than expected but apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed just met the market’s pricing. The

A new week begins with the US and Canadian jobs report the highlight.For today, stocks are higher, US yields are lower and the USD is falling vs all the major currencies with the greenback moving the most vs the AUD (down -1.11%) and the NZD (-1.09%). It is also lower by about -0.85% vs the

Background expectations to this today: All eyes on the PBoC yuan reference rate today – will it be above 7.20? The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that

Jibun Bank / S&P Global PMIs from Japan for December 2024 Services: 50.9, strongest new business inflows in four months Flash reading was 51.4 (more on this preliminary reading is here) November was 50.5 More: Activity Growth: Modest expansion, supported by domestic demand, though export sales continued to decline. Employment: Payroll numbers increased for the

Prior -17.5 Despite being a little better than estimated, the reading is the lowest since November 2023. Euro area investor morale continues to stay more subdued upon the turn of the year with Germany being the biggest cause of concern. Sentix notes that “the economic engine is threatening to freeze up for the long-term” as

The Fed’s top bank regulator will leave his post on Feb 28, rather than fighting to keep his position, as he previously indicated. In a statement, he said that a ‘dispute’ over his position could be a distraction. However Barr says that he will remain as a Fed Governor through his full term. This article

Technology and Semiconductor Stocks Soar, Telecom Faces Pressure The U.S. stock market today highlighted a robust performance in technology and semiconductor sectors, while telecom stocks faced notable declines. Investors are navigating this mixed landscape, adjusting their strategies to capitalize on emerging trends and safeguard against potential downswings. 📈 Sector Overview: Winners and Losers Technology: A

Prelim was 58.5 Prior was 56.1 Composite 55.4 vs 56.6 prelim Prior composite was 54.9 Details: Employment increases for first time in 5 months Business confidence at 18-month high Cost inflation eases to 11-month low This is still the best reading since March 2022, though not as good as it initially looked. Chris Williamson, Chief

Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) Analysis: Key Levels and Market Dynamics Current Price: $99,665 (+0.44%) Resistance and Liquidity Area: $102,000 to $102,500 Price Magnet: This area acts as a magnet due to its high liquidity. Many participants and algorithmic strategies are expecting the price to reach this level. Market makers are incentivized to move the price toward

The labor market has cooled in the past year but remains solid Risks to inflation and employment are roughly on balance Labor market is not a source of inflation I see private credit and AI among financial stability risks The Fed can proceed more cautiously in cutting rates These comments were released slightly early. This

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 40 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 97 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 55 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 65 bps (68% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 72 bps

President elect Trump is saying that the Washington Post article on tariffs is wrong and that has led to a quick move to the upside in the USD, a quick move higher in yields (2 YEAR back to unchanged/10 year up 2.5 bps to 4.62%) and a rotation lower in stocks. The major indices are

Headlines: Trump aides reportedly exploring tariff plans to only cover critical imports The loonie is in focus on potential Trudeau resignation Weekly update on interest rate expectations Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence -17.7 vs -18.0 expected Eurozone December final services PMI 51.6 vs 51.4 prelim UK December final services PMI 51.1 vs 51.4 prelim SNB

Bitcoin last week held the critical support zone at $92,000 and now it’s retaken $100,000. It’s an impressive start to the year for bitcoin and is coming with broadly-positive risk appetite. It’s a good sign for stocks and the Nasdaq and will be even better if it can hold above the big figure and eventually

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.9% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +2.4% That’s a much higher reading than estimated as German monthly inflation climbs by 0.4%, compared to 0.3% expected in December. The more pressing concern is that core annual inflation is seen moving up for yet another month, now up to 3.1%. For some context, it

Is AMD Stock a Buy? A Strategic Buy-the-Dip Plan for Swing Traders If you’re asking, “Is AMD stock a buy?”, the answer depends on your strategy and market outlook. With AMD’s stock price currently sitting at $129.01, it recently dipped to $115.91 during premarket trading on December 24th, showcasing the importance of setting buy orders

Well, that perhaps explains the marginal decline today as opposed to the ugly start to the new year from last week. It is being reported that at least four large mutual funds have received calls from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges since Thursday and Friday last week, asking them to buy more stocks than

This feels more like the actual start to the new year, so welcome back one and all. The dollar continues to sit in a good spot, largely holding gains from the turn of the year. EUR/USD is hovering near 1.0300 while USD/JPY is racing up and taking aim at 158.00 today. Elsewhere, USD/CNY is also

British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey of more than 4,800 firms in the UK. Not pleasant reading. In brief: UK business confidence has plummeted to its lowest level in two years due to rising costs and taxes 63% of firms are worried about taxes, the highest since 2017, driven by national insurance hikes and a

Monday is expected to be a relatively quiet day for the FX market, with few economic events scheduled. On Tuesday, attention will shift to Switzerland’s CPI data and the eurozone flash CPI. In the U.S., the focus will be on the ISM services PMI and the JOLTS job openings. Wednesday will bring Australia’s inflation data,

The Biden administration plans to impose new sanctions targeting tankers carrying Russian oil sold above the $60 per barrel price cap, aiming to curtail Russia’s oil revenue used to fund its war in Ukraine. These measures will focus on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of aging vessels, which are often unsafe and prone to oil spills. Since

The news out of Canada is what appears to be the looming resignation of Prime minister Trudeau. Adam had the breaking over the weekend: Trudeau expected to resign ‘by Monday’ – report I caught a little more earlier here: CAD PM Trudeau expected to announce resignation before national caucus meeting Wednesday Apparently writer Mark Twain

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) are bearish on GBP, citing Bank of England interest rate cuts to come: We see the pricing for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts this year as too cautious and expect the BoE to cut by more which will likely see the pound underperform non-dollar currencies later in the year

We are now officially back to business in the markets. We have lots of key economic data this week that will culminate with the US NFP report on Friday. Today, the only highlight will be the German inflation data ahead of the Eurozone Flash CPI tomorrow. We will also get the final PMI readings for

It is being reported that the current discussions are for tariffs to be applied to all countries but to only cover critical imports. The tariffs will only be on certain sectors deemed critical to national or economic security, according to the report. The dollar has fallen on the headlines here with USD/JPY stumbling from 157.80

Of the 72 economists in the Eurozone surveyed, roughly 46% are of the opinion that the ECB is “behind the curve” when it comes to cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, around 43% of economists are of the opinion that the ECB is on the right path. The remaining 11% are undecided. Here is the full poll

Prior 49.5 Composite PMI 49.6 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 48.3 The readings are a marginal improvement to the initial estimates but overall, it still marks a slight contraction in euro area business activity in December. A worrying point is that price pressures in the services sector is seen rising at the balance, and that threatens

The latest political developments are certainly adding a lot of intrigue to the USD/CAD chart to start the new year. The pair came close to cracking 1.4500 but is ultimately pulling back now. Does that line up with the potential for a technical pullback as we have seen back in 2016 and 2020 before? The

Key messages from Octa for 2025: ● In 2025, the implications of the U.S. presidential election will play out in full force. ● A full-scale tariff war between the U.S. and the rest of the world is a major global risk. ● An additional headwind is growing fiscal deficits in the U.S. and Europe. ●

Trump on Twitter. Shouting out his tariff and tax cut policies. There are plenty of folks about the place discounting what Trump will do, saying its all for show, all for negotiation purposes. I think that’s an incorrect take. I think Trump is going to do everything he can to implement exactly what he says

A bit more on that earlier report from Financial News in China: China financial media says PBoC statement sends stronger signal on stable yuan FX rate The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is set to issue a record volume of offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong this month, aiming to stabilize the yuan’s exchange rate

Financial News is a People’s Bank of China-backed media outlet in China. reporting on PBoC Q4 meeting statement, saying it sends a strong signal on stabilising the exchange rate: PBoC has ample tools and experience to react to yuan fall has ability to hold yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced level Despite some expectations

This from the Australian public media, ABC, over the weekend: Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There’s a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens Its ungated if you want to read the whole thing, but the piece that’s catching notice is where the writer makes the case that the Reserve Bank of

Australian Dollar Futures (6A), March 2025 Contract: Key Levels, Analysis, and Price Prediction for the Australian Dollar Futures Market Current Price: 0.6245 Market Overview and Key Dynamics in Australian Dollar Futures The Australian dollar futures market, particularly the AUDUSD pair, is showing signs of a continued upward reversal. This Aussie dollar strength is driven by

EUR/USD is trading back up to 1.0365, up 0.5% on the day, and starting to nudge back above its 100-hour moving average of 1.0349. The pair is looking for a second straight day of gains, catching a bounce after a plunge last week to a low of 1.0222. Similarly, GBP/USD is also up 0.5% to

Prior 53.1 Composite PMI 56.8 Prior 53.2 This just reaffirms that the Spanish economy remains one of the few bright lights in the euro area, once again shining brightly. Business activity picked up in December, underpinned by a sharp rise in new business. HCOB notes that: “These are impressive figures for the end of the

Final Services PMI 51.1 vs 51.4 expected and 50.8 prior. Final Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.5 expected and 50.5 prior. Key Findings: Employment declines for the third month in a row. Marginal increase in business activity. Input cost inflation accelerates to an eight-month high. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

Bloomberg (gated) ask the question: The yuan weakening past a level that China had been defending throughout December has returned the spotlight to its daily reference rate for the managed currency to gauge Beijing’s appetite to support it. Currency traders are waiting to see if the People’s Bank of China will set the so-called fixing

Stay Vigilant Amid Macro Uncertainties China’s equity markets rebounded in 2024, driven by domestic policy shifts, but uncertainties in global trade, supply chains, and geopolitical dynamics may affect confidence in 2025. BoA add that the strength and scope of the policies announced are yet to seen , and that impact will lag for quarters. H-shares

Reuters cite “source familiar with Trudeau’s thinking’: T is increasingly likely to announce he intends stepping down T has not made a final decision USD/CAD update, its dropped under 1.4400: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Final Services PMI 51.2 vs. 51.0 expected and 49.3 prior. Final Composite PMI 48.0 vs. 47.8 expected and 47.2 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.2 (Nov: 49.3). 2-month high. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 48.0 (Nov: 47.2). 2-month high. Rates of input cost and output price inflation

Domestic sight deposits CHF 426.6 bn vs CHF 436.4 bn prior This marks another break from the recent norm with total sight deposits falling further to its lowest since 2015. For some backdrop, you can refer to my post last week here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +0.6% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% The gains are also fueled by late gains in Wall Street at the end of last week, which saw the S&P 500 end higher by 1.3%, Nasdaq up by 1.8%, and Dow up by 0.8%. For

In a statement on Saturday China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), announced plans to enhance financial support for technology innovation and consumption stimulation to boost economic growth. The bank also hinted at using new tools to provide liquidity to the stock market and reaffirmed its commitment to lower interest rates and the

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 level. The expiries there might help to keep a bit of a floor on price action in the session ahead, as market players look to get settled into the actual start of the

Prior 46.9 Composite PMI 47.5 vs 46.7 prelim Prior 45.9 The revision marks a slight improvement to November but the French economy is still seen contracting for a fourth month running. Weak demand conditions remain the number one culprit, weighing on both output and new orders. HCOB notes that: “Although the service sector in France

Services PMI 50.7 vs. 50.3 expected and 49.2 prior. Composite PMI 49.7 vs. 47.7 prior. Key findings: Renewed, albeit only marginal rise in services activity. Softer decline in new business signalled. Cost and charge inflation pick up. Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg TV carried an interview with head of China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. Nothing really too new in this, the risks have been well canvassed: consumption remains weak upcoming US tariffs will impact Other points made by UBS in recent reports: China has shown willingness to provide more fiscal stimulus to offset the