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There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 159.00 level. The drop yesterday owes much to a loss in momentum for the dollar, as broader risk sentiment picked up across markets. That is continuing today but the major currencies space […]

US stocks posted back-to-back daily gains in trading yesterday for the first time since the end of February. And S&P 500 futures are looking poised again, up another 0.4% today. The better market mood yesterday came despite oil prices holding higher but today, we are starting to see a drop in oil after this headline

China clears Nvidia H200 chip sales, signalling tentative thaw in tech restrictions. Summary: China approves purchases of Nvidia H200 AI chips Licences granted for multiple Chinese customers, per source (Reuters) CEO Jensen Huang confirms orders and regulatory clearance Nvidia had awaited approvals from both US and Chinese authorities Production of H200 chips set to restart

At some point last week, US stocks were pushed to the limit. But once again, it is a case of bend but don’t break as key technical levels hold. And even as oil prices are holding up, we’re starting to see dip buyers come in to push equities back up this week. With S&P 500

Japan wage growth remains strong, but Middle East risks cloud sustainability. Info via Reuters. Summary: Major Japanese firms set to deliver strong pay hikes in annual wage talks Wage growth momentum extends into a fourth consecutive year Early deals include Mitsubishi Motors agreeing to +5.1% pay rise Rengo unions seeking +5.94% vs +6.09% last year

Barclays flags strongest stock buy signal in a year as sentiment resets Fed set to hold as Deutsche Bank flags geopolitics clouding outlook China approves Nvidia H200 AI chip sales as licences granted to multiple firms China firms ramp up FX hedging as yuan strength threatens export earnings PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at

Japan factory sentiment jumps to four-year high, but outlook softens on geopolitical risks. Summary: Japan Reuters Tankan: manufacturers sentiment +18 (prior +13) — highest since Dec 2021 Non-manufacturers steady at +25 (prior +25) June outlook: manufacturers seen at +14, non-manufacturers +21 Strength driven by semiconductors, chemicals, and transport machinery Weak spots include steel (still negative)

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 20.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data releases today are unlikely to have much of an immediate impact on financial markets. I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The pound is trading at the highs of the day as the US dollar gives back most of the big rally on Friday. The market is beginning to take a more-constructive view on the duration and impact of the Iran war, though it’s certainly a subject to change on any given headline. In the past

Iraq restarts Ceyhan pipeline exports, offering rare supply relief amid Hormuz disruption. Summary: Iraq and KRG agree to resume oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline Flows expected to restart with initial volumes from Kirkuk fields Deal includes joint coordination and enhanced security measures Comes as Iraq’s southern output plunges ~70% due to Hormuz disruption Restart

Japan swings to trade surplus as exports beat expectations despite weak China demand. Summary: Japan February exports +4.2% y/y (exp. +1.6%, prior +16.8%) Imports +10.2% y/y (exp. +11.5%, prior -2.5%) Trade balance +¥57.3bn (exp. -¥483.2bn, prior -¥1.15tn) Exports to China -10.9% y/y, US -8% y/y Exports to EU +14% y/y, Asia +2.8% y/y Data shows

India scrambles to secure LPG shipments through Hormuz as energy shortages intensify. Summary: India prioritising safe passage for 6 LPG tankers and 2 crude tankers via Strait of Hormuz Ships carry ~270,000 tonnes of LPG, critical amid domestic shortages 22 India-flagged vessels remain stranded in the Gulf Includes LPG, crude oil, and LNG carriers India

Chinese firms boost FX hedging to record levels as yuan strength pressures exporters. Summary: Chinese firms ramp up FX hedging as yuan strengthens Net forward settlement contracts hit record $107bn in February Hedging surge reflects concern over export competitiveness Yuan strength driven by dollar weakness, firm PBoC fixing, and improved US-China ties Strong export performance

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump was informed most “allies” won’t help with Hormoz. Says US doesn’t need help anyway Trump on the war: A couple of weeks, not much longer Trump: NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there. U.S. Treasury auctions of $13 billion of 20 year notes at a high yield of 4.817% US

Projectile hits near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, raising risks without immediate damage. Summary: IAEA says a projectile struck the Bushehr nuclear power plant site No damage to the facility and no injuries reported Strike occurred near, not within, critical nuclear infrastructure Bushehr is Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant Incident highlights rising risk to nuclear

BOJ Governor Ueda says inflation is gradually moving toward target ahead of the March 19 policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the BOJ’s 2% target. He reiterated the central bank will adjust policy as needed to achieve stable and durable inflation at the target

Trump on his visit to China to see Xi: “I’d love to go, but I have to be here because of the war.” “We asked to delay it a month.” Was scheduled for March 31-April 2. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian consumer confidence hits pandemic-era lows while inflation expectations surge ahead of an expected RBA rate hike: Australian dollar supported as markets bet on RBA rate hikes – preview of today’s decision Economic & event calendar Asia 17 March 2026, Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike expected Summary: ANZ–Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell to

Prior 58.3 Current conditions -62.9 vs – 67.3 expected Prior -65.9 I had to double check the number because of the huge deviation. This is much lower than expected as the lowest forecast was 30.0. The US-Iran war and the surge in energy prices have certainly played a major role here. ZEW President Professor Achim

Trump started a war without consulting any allies and then asked for their help. Evidently, they mostly told him they don’t want to send ships to Hormuz despite his weekend pleas. Now he’s angry but says the US doesn’t need help anyway. The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that

Prior was -0.8% Index vs 70.9 prior This is the lone notable US economic release today and with the Fed in blackout, all eyes are on Iran today. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), published monthly by the National Association of Realtors, tracks signed contracts on existing homes and serves as a leading indicator of

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, as widely expected, but the decision underscored a growing divide within the board, passing by a narrow 5–4 vote. The hike reflects increasing concern that inflation pressures are re-emerging, with policymakers pointing to stronger demand and capacity constraints that have

European indices are higher for the 2nd consecutive day to start the new trading week. This week the SNB, ECB, and BOE announcer interest-rate decisions – all on Thursday. All are expected to keep the rates unchanged. At the close today, the pan-European Euro STOXX 50 gained 0.26%, closing at 5,764.00, setting a constructive tone

Iran / Military stance Views Iran as a long-standing threat, saying it has been destabilizing for decades Frames current actions as purely military, not political Claims the U.S. has the capability to cripple Iran quickly (power grid, oil infrastructure like Kharg Island) Signals operations are ongoing but nearing an end, saying the U.S. is not

High-yield 4.817% WI level at the time of the auction 4.824% Tail -0.7 bps versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis points 2.76X versus 6 month average of 2.63X 9.24% versus 6 month average of 10.9% Directs 21.58 vs 6 month average of 27.0% Indirects 69.18% vs 6 month average of 62.1% AUCTION GRADE: A-

The US stock market is displaying a dynamic landscape today, with technology stocks experiencing mixed results, while financials and consumer cyclical sectors exhibit strength. This sits against a backdrop of varied performances across different industries, shaping a unique investor sentiment. 📊 Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals that the technology sector is sending mixed signals.

Trump yesterday hinted that France would ultimately get involved in a Hormuz operation and now we’re seeing signs that’s true, though with some strange caveats: Once strikes have stopped, we are read to take the responsibility of an escort system in Hormuz Any role in Hormuz would be only if there is an end to

The USDCAD has spent much of the time since January 26 trading within a well-defined range between 1.3522 and 1.3724, with multiple rotations between support and resistance. Last week, sellers pressed the pair down to the lower boundary of that range. However, momentum shifted late in the week, with price breaking above the upper extreme.

Investors are most long commodities since April 2022; stock market sentiment turns bearish Iran’s Supreme Leader says “not the right time for peace”, US and Israel must be defeated Germany March ZEW economic sentiment index -0.5 vs 39.0 expected Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps oil prices supported; de-escalation is the only fix Italy February final

The EURUSD is continuing its push to the upside, with the pair now stretching toward an important technical ceiling defined by the 200-hour moving average at 1.15499. As the price approaches that level, traders are once again faced with a familiar question: can the buyers build enough momentum to break through, or will sellers step

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in June but warns a surge in oil prices could lift U.S. recession risk. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet March 17 and 18. Summary: Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June, with another

We may be seeing the first real signs of opposition to the Iran war, and it’s coming from a Trump-appointed official. National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent — a former Green Beret — announced his resignation today. Before his nomination, he was chief of staff to Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.. What’s notable about

Dominguez spoke to the FT earlier and said that naval escorts are not a “100 percent guarantee” in terms of ship safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding that: “It reduces the risk, but the risk is still there. The merchant ships and seafarers can be affected.” As such, he argues that military intervention to

Inflation was already too high, reflecting the fact that demand was outstripping supply The cash rate was not high enough to bring inflation back to the target Higher petrol prices will add to inflation but they were not the reason for today’s decision The risks to inflation have tilted to the upside We must also

The USDCHF has moved lower today as the market rotates back toward support following last week’s strong rally. The pair began its move higher from 0.7747 on Tuesday and extended to a peak of 0.7922 yesterday, stalling just short of the 61.8% retracement at 0.79242. That failure near a key Fibonacci level helped trigger the

As North American traders enter the session, markets are relatively mixed. U.S. equities are showing modest divergence in pre-market trading, yields are little changed, and oil prices are higher by roughly $3. The USD initially moved higher before giving those gains back, and is now trading near unchanged levels. However, as is often the case

The world economy actually did okay despite tariffs threat last year It is still possible that if Middle East conflict resolves, everything turns out okay But we are alert to the risks and if circumstances change If the world economy is going to be in big trouble, that will have different implications for inflation And

J.P. Morgan is hosting its Industrials Conference today and airlines are at an interesting cross section of competing factors. On the upside, demand appears to be booming. Delta CEO Ed Bastian repeatedly highlighted strength in bookings. “We are seeing strength in every market that we look at,” he said and emphasized that last week’s sales

Iran’s new Supreme Leader in foreign policy session rejects proposals for ‘reducing tensions or seek peace with the US’ Supreme Leader rejected proposals that were sent to Iran’s foreign ministry by two intermediary countries Supreme Leader told foreign policy session ‘not the right time for peace’, US and Israel must be defeated, pay compensation Iran’s

Earlier: Morgan Stanley sees Fed cuts starting June, warns oil at $125–$150 raises recession risk — A new energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict is complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. This via Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal (gated). In brief …. Summary: The Federal Reserve is confronting new inflation risks

Prior +1.0% HICP +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelim Prior +1.0% The most notable thing from the report is that core annual inflation is seen making a big jump, up from 1.7% in January to 2.4% in February. Even if you take inflation excluding energy alone, that shows a material jump from 1.9% in January to

Global investors turn bearish as Iran and private credit concerns end “frothy bull” sentiment Net 45% of investors expect higher global CPI in the next 12 months, up from 9% a month ago Net 17% of investors expect lower short-term rates, lowest since February 2023 and down from 46% a month ago Measure of risk

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold probed below the tight range yesterday as the week started on a negative note, but eventually the price returned inside the range as the sentiment improved in the American session. The focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, but as of now, there was no

It’s a big, big week for major central bank decisions. And as mentioned last week, the RBA is arguably the most interesting of the ones on the agenda this week. And they duly delivered on that earlier by raising the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.10% today. The RBA made it clear that they were

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Singapore’s February exports rose 4.0% y/y, missing expectations as electronics gains were partly offset by weaker non-electronics shipments. Summary: Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 4.0% year-on-year in February, below expectations for a 5.5% increase in a Reuters poll. Export growth was driven by electronics shipments, particularly integrated circuits and disk media products. Non-electronics exports

New Zealand food prices -0.1 percent in February prior +2.5% For the y/y, +4.5% Data from Statistics New Zealand. Food prices make up nearly 19 percent of the consumer price index. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.2% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We saw a classic “sell the fact” reaction last week after the G7 economies and the IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Despite that, oil prices climbed back into triple-digit territory as hopes for a quick end to the war faded and disruptions in the

Japanese officials deliver coordinated policy remarks as markets watch for signs of support amid yen weakness. Summary: Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda issued a series of remarks within minutes of each other, addressing fiscal policy, bond markets and currency dynamics. Katayama stressed that monetary policy tools, including BOJ bond purchases, remain

The BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.75% at its March 18/19 meeting as markets watch for signals on future tightening and bond purchases. Earlier: CBA says rising oil prices from Iran war could weaken yen via trade balance Summary: The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75%

BOJ Governor Ueda reiterates inflation progress and wage growth focus ahead of policy meeting. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the 2% target. He stressed that sustainable inflation must be supported by wage growth, reinforcing the BOJ’s long-standing policy condition. The comments came ahead of the

There’s quite a bit to break down from the decision earlier, with traders still digesting it all ahead of RBA governor Bullock’s press conference at the bottom of the hour. In case you missed it: Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate by 25 bps, as widely expected The key thing is that they

Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate by 25bps, as widely expected BOJ’s Ueda says inflation rising toward 2% ahead of policy meeting – recap Tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz as UK maritime agency warns ships Australian confidence hits pandemic low as inflation expectations surge before RBA hike Fed faces new inflation shock

BIS warns central banks not to overreact to Iran-driven energy price spike unless the shock proves prolonged. Summary: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has urged central banks not to rush policy responses to the recent surge in energy prices driven by the Iran crisis. Officials say a temporary supply shock, such as a short-lived

Rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict may pressure the yen by worsening Japan’s trade balance, CBA says. Summary: Analysts say higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict could pressure the yen by worsening Japan’s trade balance. Japan is heavily dependent on imported energy, making the currency sensitive to rising crude costs. CBA

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 51bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A tanker was struck by a projectile near Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, prompting a shipping warning near the Strait of Hormuz. Summary: A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while at anchor in the Gulf of Oman, near Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The downside push at the end of last week and early this week fell short of critically testing the 1.1400 level. And amid the turn in the risk mood yesterday,

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Reserve Bank of Australia vote was (almost) evenly split at 5-4. Summary: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, delivering a surprise tightening in a narrow 5–4 board vote. Policymakers said inflation had picked up materially in the second half of 2025, reflecting stronger capacity pressures in

Iran’s foreign minister says his last contact with U.S. envoy Witkoff occurred before the latest American strike, downplaying reports of ongoing diplomatic messaging during the conflict. Summary: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says his last contact with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff occurred before the recent U.S. military strike on Iran. The remark follows reports that

US and Iran have been in direct contact in recent days – report NVDA stock chops: Huang sees “at least $1 trillion” in revenue visibility through 2027 Oil settles near the lows of the day, falling $5 One of the greatest oil traders of all-time thinks the Treasury got involved in the market Trump: Not

Expectations for a rate hike today from the Reserve Bank of Australia kicked into high gear on the back of comments last week from Deputy Governor Hauser: ICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live) The cavalcade of rate hike forecasts followed soon after: Australian bank analysts are

Prior was +0.7% Capacity utilization 76.3% vs 76.2% exp Prior utilization 76.2% (revised to 76.3%) Manufacturing output +0.2% vs +0.1% exp This is slightly ahead of expectations but won’t be a market mover. U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, following a strong 0.7% gain in January that was the largest monthly increase in nearly

We had in-depth, candid talks Talked about bilateral tariffs under new circumstances Talked about possible extension of tariff suspensions, other matters Talked about concerns of trade, economic issues U.S. talked about on recent tariff adjustments Chinese side voiced concerns Both sides agreed to maintain stability of tariff levels Discussed mechanisms on trade, investment Both sides

Trump says the U.S. is striking Iranian drone sites and seeking international help to secure the Strait of Hormuz, though details of any coalition remain uncertain. Summary: Trump said Iran wants negotiations but is not yet ready to engage. The U.S. claims it is striking Iranian drone manufacturing facilities. Washington is discussing Hormuz security arrangements

Lowest reading since Sept 1.6% Prior was +2.3% CPM m/m +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior CPI m/m 0.0% Core measures: BOC core 2.3% vs 2.6% prior BOC core m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% prior Core CPI % m/m % vs +0.1% prior CPI median +2.3% vs +2.4% expected (prior was 2.5%) CPI trim +2.3% vs 2.4%

China’s industrial output, retail sales and investment beat expectations early in 2026, but the property sector remained deeply in contraction. Summary: China’s industrial output rose 6.3% y/y, beating forecasts of 5.0% and accelerating from December’s 5.2%. Retail sales increased 2.8% y/y, above the 2.5% forecast and up from December’s 0.9%. Fixed-asset investment rose 1.8% y/y

As a reminder, US president Trump is scheduled to make a visit to China from 31 March to 2 April. Beijing has not officially confirmed the dates but it seems like the visit will still take place regardless. After all, it’s now a case of Trump needing to do so or risk losing face. That

Ethereum Analysis Today: ETH Futures Lead Crypto Rally as Bitcoin Holds $73K – Crypto Market Predictions Turn Cautiously Bullish If you have been following investingLive Crypto, you’ve already been an early bull 2+ weeks ago but now the other bulls are joining in. Recent analysis from investingLive shows that the current bullish momentum actually began

U.S. oil executives warned the Trump administration that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz could worsen the global energy crisis despite policy efforts to stabilise markets. — Earlier, this empty report: There is a BIG BUT on this: US preparing multinational naval escorts for Strait of Hormuz Summary: U.S. oil executives warned the Trump administration

Nasdaq 100 futures analysis today: NQ jumps as short-term bulls regain control, but the weekly chart still urges caution NQ futures are showing fresh strength again, but this is not yet a full all-clear for the Nasdaq 100. The short-term picture has improved the most, the daily view is stabilizing, and the weekly backdrop still

Trump posted on Truth Social: News Conference today, prior to Trump Kennedy Center Board Meeting. Thank you! I still can’t find a specific start time published for today’s meeting. None of the reporting includes a scheduled time — just that it’s happening today (Monday, March 16) at the White House. The exact time doesn’t appear

The RBNZ says U.S. tariffs may lower inflation in New Zealand in the near term but could push prices higher later as global supply chains adjust. Summary: The RBNZ says U.S. tariffs could reduce inflation in New Zealand in the near term. Trade diversion and a stronger NZ dollar may lower import prices. Long-term supply

The USD is moving lower as risk sentiment improves and recent defensive flows begin to unwind. With some geopolitical tensions easing, capital is rotating back toward risk assets. U.S. stocks are higher, with the S&P 500 up about 72 points, while yields are moving lower, with the 10-year yield down roughly 5 basis points. At

The USDCAD is moving lower on the day as markets react to an improvement in global risk sentiment tied to easing Middle East tensions. The shift in tone has pushed stocks higher, yields higher, oil prices lower, and the USD broadly weaker, helping to weigh on the USDCAD. From a technical perspective, the pair has

Prior was 36 Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior Prospective buyers 25 vs 22 prior Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 46 prior The headline number has been sliding — the index fell to 36 in February, down from 37 in January, which itself dropped from 39 in December.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has halted for the first time since the conflict began, underscoring the scale of disruption to a key global energy corridor. Summary: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero on Saturday. The shutdown marks the first halt in transits since the war began on February 28.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar skyrocketed in the final part of last week as prospects of a quick end to the war faded and oil resumed the rally towards triple digit levels. Traders continue to price out the rate cut bets amid surging energy prices. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC policy decision where

Trump pressed NATO allies and China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning the alliance faces a bleak future if partners refuse to assist. Earlier, weak stuff this: There is a BIG BUT on this: US preparing multinational naval escorts for Strait of Hormuz EU weighs naval response as Trump’s Strait of Hormuz disruption

Summary: China’s statistics bureau said the economy has made a “sound start” to 2026. Industrial output and retail sales beat expectations earlier in the day. Officials cited technological innovation and AI as supporting growth. Authorities warned the economy still faces “strong supply, weak demand.” Consumption is expected to rise as policy support measures take effect.

China New Home Prices February 2026 -0.28% m/m (prior -0.37%) -3.2% y/y (prior -3.1% Used Home Prices -0.43% m/m (prior –0.54%) Still to come: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Just about everything has gone wrong for Japan ever since the US-Iran conflict started. The war in the Middle East has not only caused a surge in oil prices, hampering supply to the Japanese economy, but also thrown plans by both the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) into disarray. The Japanese

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar skyrocketed in the final part of last week as prospects of a quick end to the war faded and oil resumed the rally towards triple digit levels. Traders continue to price out the rate cut bets amid surging energy prices. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC policy decision where

But no one will answer. In a desperate attempt to try and “fix” this whole mess of a situation, US president Trump has called for allies to step in and help with the Strait of Hormuz de facto closure. His suggestion is for the countries affected to send their own warships to help escort ships

It is reported that a call is being arranged between Japan foreign minister Motegi and US secretary of state Rubio for later today, according to sources familiar with bilateral relations. Among what will be discussed is likely the topic of the Strait of Hormuz, after US president Trump has called for ally countries to dispatch

Prior month 7.1 Details from the NY Fed New orders: 6.4 versus 5.8 last month , little changed, indicating a modest increase in demand. Shipments: -6.9 versus -1.0 last month, down 6 points, showing declining shipments. Unfilled orders: 10.8 versus 9.1 last month, up 2 points, suggesting backlogs increased. Delivery times: 13.7 versus 4.0 last

EU foreign ministers will debate reinforcing the bloc’s naval mission as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz threaten global energy supplies. Summary: EU foreign ministers will discuss strengthening the bloc’s Aspides naval mission. Some officials have suggested extending the mission toward the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway carries about 20% of global oil and LNG

Of note, all but one of 29 economists from major houses expect the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged throughout the year. The lone exception is Barclays, who forecasts that the Swiss central bank is to cut interest rates to -0.25% in Q2 2026 and hold that until year-end. And that means all 29

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar skyrocketed in the final part of last week as prospects of a quick end to the war faded and oil resumed the rally towards triple digit levels. Traders continue to price out the rate cut bets amid surging energy prices. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC policy decision where

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The dollar continues to go from strength to strength, with EUR/USD in particular falling off to its lowest since the summer of 2025. The late July and early August lows from then at 1.1400 will be key

It’s been several years since Binance’s global operation left the US market. But at the WEF this year, Co-CEO Richard Teng implied to CNBC that the company will consider returning under the right conditions. With the global spotlight on the US and its GENIUS Act and the potential for an upcoming Clarity Act advancement, it’s

France’s Macron urged Iran to halt regional attacks and restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during talks with President Pezeshkian. Summary: French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Macron urged Iran to halt attacks against countries in the region. He called for freedom of navigation to be restored in the Strait

The Middle East turmoil continues and Iran is definitely not toning down on its threats and strikes across the region. It is now being reported across multiple sources that UAE’s Fujairah oil port has been attacked again. The damage is now being assessed but Reuters sources are saying that oil loading has been suspended at

US strikes on targets at Iran’s Kharg Island have raised fears of a wider escalation China says economy off to solid start but demand remains weak Trump is weighing a seizure of Iran’s critical oil depot on Kharg Island China industrial output beats forecasts as property slump deepens Strait of Hormuz ship traffic collapses to

U.S. strikes on military targets at Iran’s Kharg Island have raised fears of a wider escalation that could threaten global oil supplies. Summary: The U.S. struck Iranian military facilities on Kharg Island. Trump said oil infrastructure was deliberately spared. Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports. Analysts say a direct strike could halt

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 137.3bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan and South Korea warn they are ready to act against FX volatility as yen and won slide on dollar strength tied to Middle East tensions. Summary: Japan and South Korea voiced concern over sharp depreciation in the yen and won. Officials said they stand ready to respond to excessive foreign-exchange volatility. The currencies have

Trump is pushing to form an international naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while weighing a potential seizure of Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub. Summary: Trump is working to assemble a multinational coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The White House hopes to announce the coalition later this week. Washington has been

U.S. and Chinese officials held what ‘sources’ described as constructive talks in Paris to stabilise trade ties ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit in Beijing. Summary: U.S. and Chinese officials held “candid and constructive” trade talks in Paris. Discussions focused on stabilising the bilateral trade relationship. China may consider increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

Chinese military aircraft activity near Taiwan has surged again after an unusual two-week lull that had prompted speculation about Beijing’s intentions. Info via Politico. Summary: Taiwan detected 26 Chinese military aircraft near the island on Saturday. Sixteen aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone across multiple sectors. Seven Chinese naval vessels were also operating near

Global equity funds recorded their biggest outflows in months as oil supply fears and geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safer assets. Reuters had the round up. Summary: Global equity funds saw $7.05 billion in outflows during the week to March 11. The withdrawals were the largest since mid-December 2025. Rising oil prices and supply disruptions

Japan warned it is ready to take decisive action on currency volatility as authorities intensify monitoring of foreign exchange markets. Summary: Japan’s finance minister warned that FX markets are “extremely volatile.” Tokyo declined to comment on specific currency levels. Authorities said they are prepared to take “decisive steps” if needed. The comments follow Japan–South Korea

While there are ‘weekend markets’ these do not show wholesale participation. Only once FX begins to trade for real that wholesale flows can be spotted in major markets. This will be become more relevant as major markets begin to open in the hours ahead. Not a lot of change from late Friday so far, a

New Zealand electronic card retail spending rose in February from the previous month. The electronic card data covers around 68% of core retail sales and serves as the country’s primary monthly gauge of retail activity. Earlier: New Zealand services sector falls back into contraction in February This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. is preparing to unveil a multinational naval coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but with so many caveats at be virtually useless. Summary (check out the bolding, this is all one big conjecture, of little substance). The U.S. is preparing to announce a multinational naval coalition to escort ships through

India says diplomacy with Iran is helping reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as global powers debate military protection for the vital oil route. Summary: India says diplomacy with Iran has helped reopen shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar cited talks with Tehran that allowed two Indian LPG carriers

In markets there is often a ‘risk-off/risk-on’ dynamic around economic news. At the moment, that’s shifted to more of a war-on/war-off footing, or at least a shift in how long the war might take. This view is winning out at the moment: 1) The US tried to talk to Iran but Iran refused and is

Canada just posted its worst jobs report since the pandemic. The 83,900 jobs losses were the worst in a month since 2022 and — worse yet, there were 108K full-time jobs lost. That’s led to a slump in the Canadian dollar and boosted USD/CAD by 90 pips to 1.3728. That’s the highest for the pair

The latest NBC poll shows Trump’s approval among registered voters down 3 points to 44% from 47% in March 2025, with disapproval climbing to 54%. The DDHQ polling average paints a similar picture at 43.1/54.4. What matters for markets here is the midterm setup. Trump himself is flagging the risk, noting the historical pattern of

Trump on Iran: Going to be hitting them very hard over the next week Trump claimed Iran was “about to surrender” a day before the Supreme Leader vowed to fight How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks?

GBPUSD breaks lower as sellers regain momentum The GBPUSD is once again pushing lower and trading to new session lows, extending the bearish momentum seen earlier in the day. The pair had already broken below the previous low for the year at 1.3252, but the initial move lacked follow-through and briefly corrected higher. That corrective

USDCAD extends trend-like rally toward key resistance The USDCAD has been trending steadily higher since midday yesterday, with the pair staging a strong, trend-like move to the upside. The rally began near 1.3575 and has extended to a session high of 1.3715 in trading today. The advance has unfolded in a clear three-leg structure, with

The USD made new highs vs the EUR, JPY and GBP for the year today, but is seeing some corrective action ahead of the dump of data today. At 8:30 AM ET: PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. The core is expected at 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY (vs 3.0%

Prior -24.8K Unemployment rate: 6.7% vs 6.6% expected Prior 6.5% Full-time employment change: -108.4K vs +44.9k last month Part-time employment change: +24.5K vs -69.7K last month Participation rate: 64.9% vs 65.0% last month Average hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 4.2% vs 3.3% last month This is an awful jobs report. The Canadian dollar is selling off

A Reuters poll shows economists expect the RBA to raise rates to 4.10% in March and potentially to 4.35% later this year. Summary: 23 of 30 economists expect the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.10% on March 17. The forecast marks a shift from February’s poll, which expected rates to remain at 3.85%.

EURUSD falls to new 2026 lows before corrective bounce The EURUSD moved sharply lower earlier in the day, extending its bearish momentum and breaking to new lows for 2026. In the process, the pair also traded to its lowest level since August 2025, highlighting the continued downside pressure in the currency pair. The move lower

Mexico’s President said she helped to broker talks between the US and Cuba that are now confirmed. Various reports said the talks have started and today Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration. “These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that

There is one report floating around and it suggests that Marco Rubio reached out to Iran’s leaders this week to open talks on a ceasefire. Iran didn’t even answer. Then the US went through France to try to open up talks and Iran said its goals weren’t achieved yet. What are the goals? A longer-term

Prior +0.1% GDP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.7% The more detailed breakdown as per the following: Services +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Industrial output -0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.9% Manufacturing output +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -0.5% Construction output +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior

Consumer sentiment preliminary for March 55.5 vs 55.0 estimate. Weakest cents December of last year. prior month 56.6. Current conditions 57.8 vs 56.6 prior month Expectations 54.1 vs 56.6 prior month. Weakest since November of last year. 1 year inflation expectations 3.4% vs 3.4% prior month 5 year inflation expectations 3.2% vs 3.3% prior month

The USDJPY continues to extend to the upside, supported by a combination of higher oil prices and rising U.S. yields. Crude oil settled the day up $8.48, or 9.72%, while U.S. Treasury yields also moved higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.257%, up 5.1 basis points. The rise in yields is helping to underpin the

📈 Technology Sector: A Forward Momentum The tech sector is surging today with an overall positive momentum. Leading the charge, Micron Technology (MU) has seen an impressive rise of 4.77%, while Nvidia (NVDA) increased by 0.56%. This upswing in the semiconductor space reflects growing investor confidence and optimism surrounding technological advancements. 🚀 Communication Services: Riding

Economists at Barclays now see the Fed cutting rates in September of this year and March 2027. Previously, they saw a cut in June of this year and another in September. This shift tracks market pricing, which has shifted substantially since the Iran war and resulting oil price spike. Market pricing now sees just 22.5

The WSJ reports that the US is moving additional warships to the Middle East, citing three US officials. It says that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit. Such

Japan trade minister Akazawa: Will continue to discuss Japan’s allocation and timing of IEA-led coordinated oil reserves release Japanese government, together with private sector operators, will make utmost efforts in securing alternative sources of crude oil. Japanese companies are exploring alternative sources for crude oil procurement, including U.S., Central Asia, and South America This article

Asia’s heavy reliance on medium-sour Gulf crude is making disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz difficult to replace quickly. Summary: Many Asian refineries are configured for medium-sour Gulf crude. Asia imports around 60% of its oil from the Middle East. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are slowing tanker flows. Substituting U.S., African or Brazilian

Trump reportedly told G7 leaders during a virtual summit on Wednesday that Iran was on the verge of a total military and political collapse. According to a report by Axios, which cited three officials from G7 countries briefed on the call, Trump expressed supreme confidence in the outcome of the ongoing conflict, stating that the

We are deep into the improvisation phase of the war with Iran. Donald Trump told The Brian Kilmeade Show he will know the Iran conflict is over “when I feel it in my bones.” On a somewhat more-concrete note, he suggested it may not last much longer. The market doesn’t appear to be shifting in

A handful of pipelines can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but their combined capacity falls far short of replacing the massive volumes of oil normally shipped through the critical Gulf chokepoint. Summary: The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption. A limited number of pipelines allow exporters to bypass the chokepoint. Saudi

Prior month 6.542M revised to 6.550M JOLTs Job openings for January 6.946MM vs 6.700 M estimate. Hires 5.294M vs 5.272M prior (revised) Separations 5.105M vs 5.203M prior (revised) Quits 3.137M vs 3.225M prior (revised) Layoffs and discharges 1.631M vs 1.666M (revised) For 2025 what did the numbers do? Job openings: Annual average 7.1 million in

EUR/USD 1.1700 (EUR 2.89 bn) 1.1600 (EUR 1.00 bn) 1.1500 (EUR 866.36 mn) 1.1400 (EUR 580.00 mn) USD/JPY 160.00 (US$ 464.89 mn) 159.00 (US$ 495.28 mn) 158.50 (US$ 406.68 mn) GBP/USD 1.3450 (GBP 299.62 mn) 1.3300 (GBP 150.00 mn) USD/CHF 0.7780 (US$ 299.10 mn) 0.7700 (US$ 534.13 mn) USD/CAD 1.3835 (US$ 470.70 mn) 1.3700 (US$

US equity futures are flirting with the best levels of the pre-market following a wave of economic data that points to rate cuts if/when the US or Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Notable in the pre-market news was a report saying that Trump told other world leaders earlier this week that he expected Iran

US initial claims 213K vs 215K estimate US January trade balance -54.5B vs -66.6B expected US housing starts for January 1.487M versus 1.348M estimate Israel may launch a ground campaign in Lebanon imminently Netanayu: Iran is no longer the same Iran U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of

EUR/USD 1.1700 – €2.3bn 1.1670 – €1.8bn 1.1600 – €1.4bn USD/JPY 156.00 – $1.01bn AUD/USD 0.7100 – A$896m 0.7000 – A$853m 0.7130 – A$839m GBP/USD 1.3300 – £450m 1.3350 – £409m USD/CAD 1.3835 – $471m 1.3840 – $300m NZD/USD 0.5790 – NZ$310m 0.6200 – NZ$300m Market context:EUR/USD 1.1670–1.1700 and AUD/USD 0.71 could act as short-term

The USDCHF moved to its highest level since January 23 earlier in the session as the U.S. dollar attracted buying interest. Since that high, the pair has retraced part of the advance, but it continues to hold a gain of about 0.19% on the day, keeping the bullish tone intact for now. Key support tested

Prior was +2.9% PCE M/M +% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.4% Core PCE Y/Y +% vs +3.1% expected Prior +3.0% Core PCE M/M +% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.4% Consumer spending and income for January: Personal income % vs +0.5% expected Prior +0.3% Personal spending % vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.3% Real personal spending %

Prior estimate 1.4% GDP 2nd estimate 0.7% versus 1.4% preliminary. This is well below the expectations going into the 1st cut of the GDP (was expecting 3.0%). GDP Deflator 3.8% vs 3.6% est. and 3.7% preliminary Core PCE 2.7% versus 2.7% estimate and 2.7% preliminary GDP sales preliminary 0.4% versus 1.2% preliminary. Consumer spending 2.0%

On US escorts in Strait of Hormuz: We would do it if we needed to Hopefully, things are going to go very well We’re going to see what happens Trump is clearly vowing to escalate the war further here which should keep the markets in defensive mode, especially heading into the weekend. Oil made headlines

Prior +0.3% HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim Prior +0.4% The HICP is the more important measure as that’s what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there’s nothing to see here. The data hasn’t been much of importance for the market anyway as the focus remains on the US-Iran war

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower today as a surge in oil prices—up roughly 8% on the day—sparked renewed concerns about inflation, economic growth, and rising input costs across large parts of the economy. The spike in crude came amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of potential disruptions to global supply routes.

Japan warns on oil price impact, signals FX action as USD/JPY nears 160 ICYMI – Tesla wins UK licence to supply electricity to households US, EU and Japan advance critical minerals trade deal with price floor plan Poor US decision-making process underestimated Iran’s willingness to disrupt Hormuz PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today

The US dollar started the week on a negative note as the record jump in oil prices got unwound on G7 discussions about emergency oil reserves release and then on Trump’s comment to CBS suggesting that the war could be over soon. The relief rally in risk weighed on the greenback as rate cut bets

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prior No changes to the preliminary estimates here. As mentioned for the French CPI, the data hasn’t been much of importance for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of

Iran’s UN envoy, comments reported via Reuters: We are not going to close Strait of Hormuz but it is our right to preserve ‘peace and security’ in the waterway Oil implications (should be a headwind, a welcome one!) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data from NZ only, unlikely to move markets noticeably upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia will release up to 762 million litres of fuel from reserves after easing stockholding rules to counter supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Summary: Australia will release up to 762 million litres of petrol and diesel from domestic reserves. The government is cutting minimum fuel stockholding obligations by up to 20%. The measure

ICYMI – Tesla receives UK licence to supply electricity to homes, expanding its push into retail energy. Summary: Tesla Energy Ventures has been granted a UK electricity supply licence by regulator Ofgem. The move allows Tesla to sell electricity directly to British households. Tesla aims to combine solar generation, battery storage and energy retail services.

Japan’s finance minister warns high oil prices are hitting markets and signals readiness to act in FX as USD/JPY nears intervention levels. Summary: Japan Finance Minister Seiko Katayama warned high oil prices are impacting financial markets. She said the government will take all possible measures to mitigate the impact. Katayama signalled readiness to act in

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury grants one-month window to sell Russian oil cargoes already loaded before new sanctions. Summary: U.S. Treasury issued a new Russia-related general license. License allows sale of Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded as of March 12. Transactions can continue until 12:01 a.m. ET on April 11. Measure provides a wind-down period for

The EURUSD is trading near the lows for the day, the week, and the year as the session moves toward the close. The selling pressure has pushed the pair close to a key technical level that, if broken, would take the price to its lowest level since November. The low for today reached 1.1511, while

Israeli officials see Iran’s regime holding firm for now, shifting focus toward weakening Tehran’s military rather than expecting imminent political collapse. Info via the Wall Street Journal (gated) Summary: Israeli officials assess Iran’s regime is unlikely to collapse in the near term despite military pressure. Security forces maintain strong control over streets, discouraging protests and

Reports from the Israeli Broadcasting Authority indicate the Security Cabinet is convening this evening to debate a significant expansion of ground operations in Lebanon. The move follows a week of intensifying friction that saw Israel nearly double its evacuation zones in southern Lebanon, now covering roughly 10% of the country’s territory. With Defense Minister Israel

Iran appears to be preparing a ground invasion in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah. Is it possible they want to tone things down with Iran before embarking on it? Comments from Netanyahu in his first press conference since the war: Iran is no longer the same Iran Dealing heavy blows to Iran’s revolutionary guard Speak with

USD/JPY is up 45 pips to a session high at 159.39. The energy crisis is potentially disasterous for the Japanese economy as it imports virutally all of its energy needs. Remember that it’s not just oil that’s being blockaded in the Strait of Hormuz but natural gas as well, which of it heading to Asia.

Sector Overview: Spotting the Market Movers The stock market is experiencing mixed trends today, with notable sectoral shifts highlighted on the heatmap. While technology and healthcare are seeing significant declines, the energy sector is standing out with positive gains. 📉 Technology: Major tech stocks are under pressure. Semiconductor giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD)

There was a time when a $65 drop in gold was blockbuster news for the precious metals market, now it’s the usual daily volatility. That’s in part because the market is more lively but it mostly reflects the law of big numbers in that at $5108, a $65 is just a 1.2% decline. Zooming out,

The U.S. has launched sweeping Section 301 probes into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, opening the door to a new wave of tariffs. Summary: The U.S. has launched a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners over excess manufacturing capacity. Targeted economies include China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan. The probe

Summary: Oracle is reportedly preparing layoffs that could reach as many as 45,000 employees, above the confirmed 20,000–30,000 range. Much of the restructuring is tied to AI automation within Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. AI agents have reportedly been managing database administration tasks for several months. One internal example saw 47 database administrators replaced by three senior

Prior was -1.30B Exports 62.48B vs 65.55B prior Imports 66.13B vs 66.85B prior Canada’s merchandise exports decreased 4.7%, while imports were down 1.1%. The 4.7% decline is the largest percentage decline since April 2025. Exports of motor vehicles and parts fell 21.2% to $5.4 billion in January, the lowest level since September 2021. Changes in

Summary: Drone strikes reportedly linked to Iran triggered fires at Oman’s Mina petroleum facility near Salalah. Authorities evacuated all vessels from the Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal as a precaution. The terminal handles roughly 1 million barrels per day of Omani crude exports. Mina Al Fahal is strategically located outside the Strait of Hormuz,

US stocks increasingly look like the want to go down and test Monday’s lows. The S&P 500 is down 95 points, or 1.3%, to 6690, which still leaves about 50 points of breathing room before we hit the March 9 low. There is a clear inverse correlation between oil and stock markets right now that’s

Comments from Iranian officials appear to be sending mixed signals, but the latest remarks suggest some effort to ease concerns about a full disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that many ships can still pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with the Iranian Navy.

High-yield 4.871% WI level at the time of the auction 4.878% Tail -0.7 basis points versus 6 month average of +0.2 basis points bid to cover 2.45X versus 6 month average of 2.39% Dealer 9.45% versus 6 month average of 11.3% Directs 27.2% versus 6 month average of 23.2% Indirects 63.4% vs 6 month average

European equities finished the session broadly lower, with Spain’s Ibex leading the declines. The selling pressure was fairly widespread across the region as risk sentiment remained cautious. Despite the drop today, the weekly picture remains mixed with some indices still holding gains for the week heading into the final trading day. European closing levels (today):

The The USDCAD is pressing higher in North American trading and once again testing a key topside ceiling that has capped the pair all week. That resistance zone has become increasingly well defined, which makes the current test especially important from a technical perspective. Looking back over the week, the high price on Monday reached

Summary: Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding. The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps. Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market. JPMorgan has marked down loans used as

Bitcoin CME futures are trying to stabilize above the $70,000 area, and the latest order-flow picture suggests buyers have improved their footing in the short term. The move is constructive, but the broader structure still looks more like a recovery phase than a fully established bullish expansion. The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a period

Prior was -72.9B Goods trade -80.8B vs -98.54B The deficit came in at $54.5B compared to $72.9B in December (revised), a swing of $18.4 billion. The consensus was looking for $66.6B so this is a meaningful miss on the deficit side — which is to say, a positive surprise for GDP math. The single biggest

The report says that the Chinese government has effectively banned refined fuel exports for the month of March “with immediate effect”. That as Beijing has ordered refiners to stop such exports for the month. All of this of course is to manage the situation back home, amid fears of domestic fuel shortages due to the

The price of Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined range, mostly bounded between $62,696 and $71,775. There have been a couple of brief extremes outside that range, including a dip to $59,930 in early February that lasted only a few hours, and a short-lived spike to $73,739 that held for roughly 15 hours. Overall,

On both Tuesday and Wednesday, the NASDAQ index stalled right against the 200-hour moving average. That moving average also aligned closely with a downward-sloping trendline, which defines the upper boundary of a trading channel. The index has been trading within this channel since February 5, with multiple tests of both the upper resistance zone and

Iran operations to take weeks, not months Navy escort will happen relatively soon Escorts can’t happen now Hormuz tanker escort likely by the end of the month You will see US working with other countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz Short term disruption is needed for long term security Russia is not getting sanctions

In the opening days of the Iran war, there was something of a shock in markets but then markets settled into the idea that it would be a temporary disruption, with oil prices retreating afterwards. That was exactly what Trump said as he outlined a 4-5 week timeline, and affirmed when he later said the

A container ship near the UAE was hit by an unidentified projectile causing a small fire, adding to rising maritime security incidents in Gulf shipping lanes. Summary: A container ship was struck by an unknown projectile 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in the UAE. The strike caused a small onboard fire. All crew

Prior month housing starts 1.387M Housing starts for January 1.487M vs 1.348M last month Building permits 1.376M vs 1.410M estimate Prior month 1.455M Housing Completions for January: Housing completions (Jan): 1.527M annual rate, +4.8% vs Dec (1.457M) YoY comparison: -7.5% vs Jan 2025 (1.651M) Single-family completions: 970K, -1.0% vs Dec (980K) Multifamily (5+ units): 532K

The AUDUSD is moving lower today as risk-off sentiment spreads across global markets. U.S. stocks and global equities are pushing lower, while oil prices are surging—currently up roughly 8.8% on the day. In that environment, the U.S. dollar is gaining across the board against the major currencies, with the AUDUSD leading the declines, down about

The USD is trading in a mixed and mostly range-bound fashion to start the North American session. The dollar is firmer against the EUR and GBP, with EURUSD and GBPUSD edging lower, while the greenback is softer against the JPY after pushing toward 2026 highs earlier and finding willing sellers on the test. In the

WTI crude oil is now up 10% and has risen above the highs from Asian trading. Britain’s Defence Secretary says “it’s clear Iran is likely laying mines” in the Strait of Hormuz. That’s an odd phrasing that indicates both clarity and uncertainty. I guess we won’t really know if there are mines until: 1) Iran

Trump considers invoking emergency powers to revive offshore oil production in California as the Iran conflict pushes crude prices higher. Summary: President Trump is preparing to invoke the Defense Production Act to revive offshore oil production in southern California. The move would ease permitting and potentially override some state restrictions. Houston-based Sable Offshore Corp. is

Prior was 213K (revised to 214K) initial jobless claims 213K vs vs 215K est 4 week moving average 212K vs 216K last week Continuing claims 1.850M vs 1.850M expected Prior 1.868M revised to 1.871M Steady. No Hire. No Fire – at least in this series. WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE? The US Jobless Claims indicator

Trump yesterday told tanker operators to “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz. A US-owned and Greek-owned tanker decided to try and they were hit by explosive RC boats and are now in flames. That has renewed talk about naval escorts through the strait but France said yesterday and it will take

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel. Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

India’s inflation rate increases to 3.2% in February, slightly above consensus India reportedly sees first oil vessel reach its port since the US-Iran conflict started US futures step with caution as Middle East conflict drags on The S&P 500 bias turns bearish again as traders don’t buy Trump’s jawboning anymore GBPUSD rejects a major trendline

Says oil will be coming down Says the US has hit 28 mine ships They’ve hit Iran’s leadership twice We’ve heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through. At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates in March and May as rising energy prices and strong domestic data keep inflation risks elevated. Earlier: ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate hike as oil shock lifts inflation risks Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and

Summary: Two oil tankers were attacked in the northern Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait. One vessel near Umm Qasr caught fire following what appears to be a deliberate strike. A second tanker off Kuwait suffered an explosion and onboard fire. Early reports suggest the use of explosive drones or unmanned boats. The incidents highlight rising

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The closest one that could factor into play are the ones for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. That being said, the fact remains that there is a bigger influence on price action currently. And that is oil

Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to safeguard supply as its heavy reliance on imported petroleum leaves the country exposed to global energy disruptions. Summary: Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to ensure adequate supply. The policy allows fuel from more global refineries to enter the market during disruptions. Australia imports

Container ship hit by projectile near UAE port of Jebel Ali Australia allows higher sulphur fuel imports to protect supply security Drone strikes hit Oman energy facility, vessels evacuate Mina Al Fahal terminal Fitch warns rising local government debt could narrow China’s fiscal headroom Reuters says that Global shipper CMA CGM resumes bookings from Gulf

BoJ Governor Ueda warns currency weakness could intensify inflation risks as higher oil prices and a weaker yen threaten to fuel cost-push inflation in Japan. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that foreign exchange movements are increasingly influencing inflation. He said the yen’s impact on prices is larger than in the past, potentially

Expectations for an RBA rate hike on March 17 are strengthening as oil-driven inflation risks grow and major banks including ANZ join forecasts for tighter policy. Summary: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation. He said there will be “genuine policy debate”

Iran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel. Its forces hit merchant shipping / oil tankers: Reports of tanker attack in southern Iraq Oil price leaps higher on news of 2 tankers attacked in the Gulf The oil tanker attacks were carried out by Iranian boats laden with explosives. At

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a global stockpile drawdown. Separately, intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s government remains stable despite weeks of bombardment. Summary: The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move is part of a 400 million barrel coordinated release by the

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 24.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK housing demand weakened in February as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices raised fears mortgage rates could remain elevated. Summary: The RICS house price balance fell to -12 in February, weaker than January’s -10 and the -9 expected by economists. The survey indicates more respondents reporting falling prices than rising ones. New buyer enquiries

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation for March 2025 rise to 5.2% from 5% in February. RBA looks locked and loaded: Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and May RBA meet next week: This article

G7 leaders weigh ship escorts in the Gulf and coordinate with regional partners as Middle East tensions threaten energy markets and trade routes. Gotta wonder why this needs to be done if this is true: Trump suggests there’s “practically nothing left” to target in Iran, war will end soon Anyway … summary: G7 leaders reaffirm

Reuters is reporting that CMA CGM has reopened container bookings from major Gulf export hubs, signalling improving conditions for regional shipping after recent disruptions. This is good news if correct. Recent attacks suggest this may be premature: Oil price rocketing higher as attacks on tankers by Iran escalate. US stocks dropping. Oil price leaps higher

Prior was -95.0B Last Feb was -137B The fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.004 trillion vs $1.147 trillion a year earlier Outlays $621B vs $603B a year earlier Receipts $313B vs $296B a year earlier Net customs receipts of $26.59B When you factor in the tariff refunds that are coming, the deficit is on track to

China is expected to maintain targeted fiscal support for local governments as rising debt and weak revenues tighten fiscal headroom, Fitch says. Summary: Fitch Ratings expects China to maintain targeted fiscal support for local and regional governments (LRGs). LRGs are provincial and municipal governments responsible for infrastructure spending and regional development. Weak revenue growth and

USD/JPY is creeping closer to major resistance after a jump today. It’s up 89 pips to 158.95 as the market senses a longer (or at least uncertain) timeline for the war in Iran. Trump continues to say he could end the war soon but the IEA and its members today announced the release of emergency

The GBPUSD price action today for resistance near a downward sloping trendline, and on the downside, he found support against a cluster of moving averages. The trendline came in near 1.3456. The moving averages are between 1.3382 and 1.3395. The high price today reached 1.3457 and the low price was at 1.3394. Trading successfully can

This is from Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian: Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression. Those are certainly some aspirational

The USDJPY has moved higher, supported by rising US yields and a more bullish technical backdrop. Earlier in the session, the pair found solid support during the early European trading hours when the price stalled against the rising 100-hour moving average. Holding that level reinforced its importance as a key support point. The moving average

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices stabilized in the $80–90 range this week as G7 countries began discussing the possibility of releasing emergency oil reserves to ease pressure on the market. If it happens, the release would be the largest in history. For now, the mere discussion seems to be capping the upside, but no concrete action

It was reported earlier today that this was coming so it’s not a surprise at this point but it’s still a big step and the details are key. In any case, this will be the largest coordinated strategic reserve release in the agency’s history, more than double the 182.7 million barrels unleashed during Russia’s 2022

Iran has threatened to strike the US west coast with offensive drones in retaliation for American military operations, according to an FBI warning issued to California police departments. This is an ABC News report and it reads to me like the kind of standard thing that police dept’s would send out at a time like

Market Insights: Tech gains momentum as utilities and financials lag behind 🏦 Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a mixed performance landscape, with the technology sector standing out amid broader market challenges. Semiconductors are demonstrating notable strength, while utilities and financials endure weaknesses. Technology Surge: A sparkling performance in the semiconductor sector, led by Intel

Spain has been bad, may cut off trade Spain’s leadership is not so good On Iran: Not worried about any Iran-backed attacks on US soil Just spoke with leaders of various countries (this would have been on the IEA oil reserves call) On Iran, Trump asserts: “We’re not finished yet.” Trump said he didn’t believe

High-yield. 4.217% WI level at the time of the auction 4.210% Tail 0.7 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.45X versus 6 month average of 2.48X 6 month average of Directs 12.8% vs 6 month average of 20.3% Indirects 74.5% versus 6 month average of 69.3% Dealers 12.7%

Dive right into my Nasdaq technical analysis video from today (11 March, 2026) The recent market action from investingLive.com suggests that while the “bearish tilt” felt heavy for a moment, the bulls might just be pulling a classic “fakie” recovery. Here is the fun recap of what went down: 1. Oracle’s Cloud Nine Moment While

Today’s CPI report was bang in-line with estimates so that gives the Fed breathing room to wait and see what happens with prices. What’s complicating that is the spike in crude oil due to the Iran war. WTI continues to bounce around and is up $1.52 to $84.90 today after rising as high as $89.

US President Trump said tanker crews should “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz. But overnight, an Iranian drone boat hit the cargo vessel Mayuree Naree Bangkok. Twenty sailors were evacuated but three are reportly still missing, perhaps trapped in the engine room. The timeline of “a few weeks” set out by

Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil production in February before the Iran war, as part of a ‘contingency’ plan ahead of strikes. Production in the oil superpower rose to 10.882 million barrels per day compared to 10.10 mbpd in January. That boosted overall OPEC+ crude output to 42.72 mbpd, up 445,000 barrels per day. A statement

The AUDUSD is charging toward new daily highs, decisively extending its rally beyond the February 12 peak of 0.7146. The pair recently touched 0.7189 following news that the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves—a massive move aimed at stabilizing global prices amid anxieties surrounding the Iranian conflict.

Axios spoke with Trump “Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump said during the five-minute call with Axios. “The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period,” Trump told Axios. This is the

U.S. stocks are trading marginally higher at the start of the North American session, while bond yields and crude oil prices are also edging higher as markets position ahead of key inflation data. At 8:30 AM ET, the market will get the latest reading on U.S. CPI, one of the most closely watched inflation indicators.

The NASDAQ index moved higher earlier in today’s trading, climbing to a session high of 22,906. At that level, the price was testing the falling 200-hour moving average, a key technical resistance level. Sellers leaned against that moving average, and the failure to break above it reinforced the level as an important risk and bias-defining

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Monday after Trump told CBS that “the war could be over soon.” Traders unwound some of their positions as expectations of a quick resolution led to a repricing of hawkish interest-rate bets, putting pressure on the greenback. The dollar extended those losses yesterday as

A week after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, markets started to realize the conflict might drag on. On Monday morning, Brent crude briefly jumped above $113 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures opened deep in the red. The picture wasn’t much brighter elsewhere either — European and Asian stocks also suffered. The

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Monday after Trump told CBS that “the war could be over soon.” Traders unwound some of their positions as expectations of a quick resolution led to a repricing of hawkish interest-rate bets, putting pressure on the greenback. The dollar extended those losses yesterday as

The survey sees all 64 economists anticipating that the BOJ will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% next week. Meanwhile, roughly 60% (37 out of 62 economists) see the Japanese central bank making a move to raise the policy rate to 1.00% by end-June. That is not too much changed from the ~58% in

Prior was +3475K Gasoline -3654K vs -2649K expected Distillates -1349K vs -692K expected Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.3% expected The private oil data released late yesterday: Crude -1700K Gasoline -1800K Distillates -2300K The production estimate showed the US off by 18K bpd. This report has been very volatile this year and I suspect that’s due

The breakdown will see Japan release 15 days worth of private sector oil reserves and one-month worth of state oil reserves. At the same time, Takaichi has also called on measures to curb gasoline prices at ¥170 per litre on average. For some context, Japan has a massive buffer of around 254 days’ worth of

G7 leaders will hold emergency talks later Wednesday on energy coordination as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher. Summary: French President Emmanuel Macron will host a video call of G7 leaders on Wednesday to discuss energy market impacts from Middle East tensions. The meeting is scheduled for 1400 GMT, according to the Elysee. Leaders

The initial market reaction has been fairly muted. U.S. stocks are modestly lower, Treasury yields are edging higher, and the USD is firmer, but the overall moves remain relatively limited. Looking at the equity market, futures are pointing to a softer open, with the Dow down about 150 points, the S&P 500 lower by roughly

Headlines: Oil prices creep back up after Washington fiasco, what’s next? IEA reportedly to announce recommendation on strategic oil reserve release at 1300 GMT G7 energy ministers reaffirm support of using oil reserves Japan set to release part of oil reserves from private sector and also state stockpile What is the distribution of forecasts for

The USDCAD has established a clear trading range this week, carving out a high of 1.3606 and a low of 1.3524 during Monday’s session. Since that initial volatility, the pair has tightened into a “coil” pattern, printing a series of lower highs and higher lows through Tuesday and into today’s trade. While the price recently

Headlines: Oil prices creep back up after Washington fiasco, what’s next? IEA reportedly to announce recommendation on strategic oil reserve release at 1300 GMT G7 energy ministers reaffirm support of using oil reserves Japan set to release part of oil reserves from private sector and also state stockpile What is the distribution of forecasts for

The roller coaster ride continues on the week, with oil prices now starting to nudge back higher today. There was much drama and a real mess yesterday amid conflicting headlines. As the US tries to play down the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, we started to see some underhanded tactics come out. The headlines:

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

We must remain calm amid Iran crisis The conflict has raised uncertainty Likely to see slightly higher inflation, less growth due to the conflict But inflation in France will remain low, don’t see stagflation happening Do not expect a rate hike at the ECB meeting next week Meanwhile, we’re also hearing from ECB policymaker Nagel

Questions over whether Prime Minister Takaichi sought to influence BOJ policy have renewed debate about political pressure on Japan’s central bank. Reuters (may be gated) carried the info ICYMI. Summary: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stance on monetary policy came under scrutiny in parliament. An opposition lawmaker questioned whether she pressed the Bank of Japan

Well, it’s not a surprise given that the G7 leaders’ meeting is lined up right after. It is a mere formality now as they look to just finalise the details and nuances in getting this done. The Reuters headline is saying that the IEA will announce its recommendation at 1300 GMT on releasing oil from

Oil prices are rising once again after a CNN report said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on

U.S. forces struck Iranian mine-laying vessels as Trump warned Tehran against attempts to mine the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Summary: The U.S. military said it eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump warned Iran to remove any mines immediately or face military consequences. Trump said the U.S. would use

Hauser’s hawkish inflation warnings have pushed markets toward expecting a possible RBA rate hike as soon as the March meeting. RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a “genuine challenge” ICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live) Summary: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser

The ECB is still in good place We will be ready to act if needed There’s no reason to act at the next meeting I have no reservations to hike without new forecasts Upside inflation risks clearly dominate A rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought The euro caught a bid on that

Japan’s wholesale inflation cooled in February but rising oil prices from the Iran conflict threaten to push price pressures higher again. Summary: Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.0% y/y in February, below the 2.1% forecast. Wholesale inflation slowed from January’s 2.3% rise, marking a third straight month of easing. Government fuel subsidies helped

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelim Prior +2.1% The drop in the headline reading owes much to lower energy prices mostly. So when you take a look at core annual inflation instead, that is seen at 2.5% – the same as in January. As such, this is still one stubborn area that is

The major U.S. stock indices closed the session with mixed results. The NASDAQ edged slightly higher, finishing nearly unchanged with a gain of 0.01%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.21% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07%. The small-cap Russell 2000 also moved lower, falling 0.22%, reflecting a somewhat cautious tone in the broader

<html> <body> <!–StartFragment–>Trump announced a major refinery project in Texas backed by India’s Reliance, describing it as a historic investment aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance.<!–EndFragment–> </body> </html> Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new oil refinery project in Brownsville, Texas. Trump said the facility would be the first new U.S. refinery built in

Container ship damaged off UAE, hit by suspected projectile near Strait of Hormuz Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and May Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week Weak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook — PPI recap

Do you ever get the sense that someone is playing games? CNN reported just minutes ago that Iran has placed a few dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. They cited “according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue”, who were unnamed but they were no doubt sourced (and not made

Japan PPI for February 2026, AKA corporate goods price index (CGPI), measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services: -0.1% m/m expected 0.2%, prior 0.2% 2.0% y/y expected 2.1%, prior 2.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A container ship was damaged by a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz as regional conflict raises risks to global shipping. Summary: A container vessel reported damage from a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred 25 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Khaimah in the UAE, according to UKMTO. The

The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after the Strait of Hormuz disruption sent crude prices sharply higher. Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting. ps. G7 discussion on oil scheduled for 1400 GMT on Wednesday, March 11, 2026: G7 to discuss energy coordination as Mid East tensions lift oil prices: 1400

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned oil-driven inflation risks could intensify policy debate ahead of the next interest rate decision. Justin had his comments posted here yesterday: RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a “genuine challenge” Pricing for a March 17 RBA rate hike has jumped above 50% on the back

Goldman Sachs expects February CPI to show easing core inflation as autos and shelter moderate. Data due at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 11, 2026. Summary: Goldman Sachs expects February core CPI to rise 0.17% m/m, below the 0.2% consensus. The forecast implies 2.42% year-on-year core inflation, versus 2.5% consensus. Headline CPI is

Iran has laid ‘a few dozen’ mines in the Strait of Hormuz – report Trump: We have no reports of Iran placing mines in the Hormuz Strait US intel sees signs that Iran is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz – report US Energy Sec removes video saying the US Navy escorted a tanker

North Korea tested a cruise missile designed for naval deployment while backing Iran and condemning U.S. and Israeli military actions. Summary: North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile test on Tuesday, according to state media KCNA. The missile was designed for deployment on a naval destroyer, highlighting Pyongyang’s expanding naval strike capability. Leader Kim Jong

Oracle beat Q3 estimates and lifted its revenue outlook as cloud demand drove strong growth and a surge in backlog. Summary: Oracle reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $17.19B, beating estimates of $16.89B. Adjusted operating margin reached 43%, slightly ahead of the expected 42.7%. Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS) totaled $8.9B, narrowly topping forecasts. Software

On Tuesday the USD/CNY reference rate was set at a 35 month low (ie a 35 month high for CNY). That could be surpassed today as the PBoC allows a stronger yuan again. — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern

ECB President Lagarde pushed back against stagflation concerns but said elevated uncertainty prevents clear guidance on the next interest rate decision. Summary: ECB President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy is not in a stagflationary environment. She noted the economy has greater capacity to absorb shocks than in 2022, though uncertainty is currently higher. Lagarde

Japan wholesale level inflation indicator, the PPI, is due today. Expected just a loittle softer. Still, the most focus for markets will be on the war makers. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ethereum futures analysis today points to a constructive 4-hour recovery, with ETH rebuilding fair value higher after earlier selling pressure. The latest structure favors the bulls, but traders still need stronger follow-through above $2,085 before calling it a clean breakout. Bias score: +3.5 bullish On investingLive’s scale, a +3.5 score means the market has a

The AUDUSD has pushed to a new high for 2026, breaking above the February peak at 0.7146 and reaching a session high of 0.7155. However, after the breakout, the price has rotated back lower and is now trading just below that prior high, creating the risk of a failed breakout if buyers cannot maintain momentum.

China exports surge at start of 2026 as trade surplus widens sharply. Summary: China’s exports surged 21.8% y/y in January–February, far exceeding expectations and accelerating sharply from December’s 6.6% growth. The country recorded a $213.6B trade surplus, well above forecasts and last year’s level. Imports also jumped 19.8% y/y, suggesting stronger trade flows despite weak

WTI crude fell below Friday’s low and through $80 after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. He’s now removed that post and oil is bouncing. This was the post: This isn’t a good look for the Secretary and White House communications. This

ICYMI: Goldman Sachs & Barclays warn sustained oil surge could push US inflation toward 3% Trump advisers urge Iran war exit plan amid epic oil price surge. Epic Blunder? Recap – Japan upgrades Q4 GDP to 1.3% on strong investment, Iran war clouds outlook PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8982 (vs.

High Yield: 3.579% vs 6-month avg. 3.563% WI level at the time of the auction 3.568% Tail 1.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.6 bps Bid-to-Cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.69x Dealers 19.5% vs 6 month average of 10.5% Directs 20.7% versus 6 month average of 25.3% Indirects: 59.8% versus 6 month

Nasdaq rebounds as oil prices ease and Trump suggests the war could end soon. What’s next? US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected ECB policymakers stress patience, assess if energy price shock is temporary or not French finance minister says “not there yet” with regards to release of oil reserves The

Shares of Canadian subprime lender Goeasy are down 60% today on guidance regarding surging loan defaults and write downs. It comes ahead of the March 25 earnings report. The company announced a $331mm charge to reflect weaker-than-expected recoveries on loans and will breach leverage covenants as a result. They have secured accommodation agreements but this

Summary of weekend notes ICYMI: Higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions could lift U.S. inflation if the increase persists for several months. Goldman Sachs estimates a sustained 10% rise in oil prices could add about 0.28 percentage points to headline CPI. In one scenario, U.S. inflation could rise from 2.4% to around 3% if

Prior 99.3 Full report here This is a minor setback but the index remains above its 52-year average of 98. This is not a market moving report and it certainly won’t be now that the focus is solely on the US-Iran war. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq nearly tested its November low yesterday as markets kicked off the week in a strong risk-off mood. Sentiment improved later in the day as oil prices fell sharply following the G7’s indication that it may release emergency oil reserves. In the evening, Trump told CBS that the war could be over

The Australian dollar has extended its gain to 77 pips on the day to 0.7150. That’s the best level since 2023 and only a handful of pips away from the best levels since June 2022. I have been beating this drum for awhile but there continues to be much to like about the Australian dollar:

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French trade balance and the Italian PPI report. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB or the market, so the reaction will be muted. The market focus

Summary: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says Arab or European countries that expel Israeli and U.S. ambassadors will be granted full freedom to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The statement was carried by Iranian state media and appears aimed at rallying diplomatic support for Tehran amid its war with the United States and Israel.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag of performance with significant movements across various sectors. Let’s dissect the big winners and losers illuminating today’s trading landscape. 📊 Technology Sector: This sector showcases a dichotomy. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed up by 0.91%, showing bullish momentum within semiconductors, complemented by Micron Technology (MU) soaring 5.68%. However,

As access to trading platforms and financial education expands, more women are turning to financial markets to diversify income beyond traditional careers. Participation in financial markets is evolving. For decades, investing and trading were often perceived as male-dominated arenas. But the rapid expansion of digital trading platforms, financial education, and global market access is reshaping

Iran war-driven energy surge sparks fresh rate hike bets across Europe. Via Reuters reporting. Summary: The war involving Iran has pushed crude prices above $119 a barrel, triggering renewed fears of another global inflation shock. Markets have increased bets that several European central banks may need to raise interest rates later this year. The European

The dollar is trading back down across the board today as its fate remains tightly correlated to oil prices at this stage. After jumping to a high of $119.50 yesterday, WTI crude oil has seen quite the reversal in falling back to $87.10 today. That as the roller coaster ride continues with market players now

Prior was 3.91m (worst reading since 2024 but revised to 4.02m) Home sales change +1.7% vs -8.4% prior Days on the market 47 vs 46 prior Inventory at months 3.8 vs 3.7 months prior Median prices $398,000 vs $396,800 prior US existing home sales, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), measure completed

Crude oil is racing to the downside, pressured by both fresh fundamental developments and increasingly bearish technical signals. On the fundamental side, reports indicate that the IEA is meeting with government representatives on Tuesday to discuss supply conditions, with the purpose of determining whether a coordinated release of oil stocks may be necessary. That headline

Yesterday, the USDCAD had a down-and-up day that largely mirrored the moves in crude oil. Earlier in the session, the pair moved lower as oil prices surged, strengthening the Canadian dollar. Later, as oil began to come off the boil, USDCAD rebounded, reflecting a softer CAD. Today, oil is again trading higher, and USDCAD is

Summary: Donald Trump said the U.S. is waiving certain oil-related sanctions to help ensure adequate global supply and lower prices during the Middle East conflict. He pointed to additional crude supplies coming from Venezuela, including roughly 100 million barrels already delivered to U.S. refineries and another 100 million reportedly on the way. Trump argued the

Gold is near the highs of the day, up $80 to $5214 as investors pile back in. Last week, we saw gold sold on the war as huge uncertainty hit everything. I believe that led to a de-leveraging trade even as China added to its gold reserves for a 16th month. As I wrote early

The USDCHF spent much of yesterday’s trading session moving between its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, a sign of a market caught in a short-term battle between buyers and sellers. Late in the day, however, sellers gained the upper hand and pushed the pair below both moving averages, shifting the short-term bias to the downside.

Trump was asked if the war will be over this week: “No”. Summary: Donald Trump said U.S. forces have destroyed much of Iran’s naval capability and are heavily degrading its drone and missile production. Trump claimed the campaign is ahead of the administration’s original timeline and suggested the conflict could soon conclude. He warned Iran

ECB’s Simkus: Important to stay calm for next policy meeting, don’t overreact Deeper crisis may have price and growth implications We need to take the next decision based on the best information on the day of the meeting ECB’s Muller: We need to see if the energy price surge is transitory or not We shouldn’t

It is likely that they still need time to work out the details and nuances of the plan. But in the meantime, the threat has basically worked as oil prices have come off the boil. To some argument and extent, the “signal” that they are going to do so is in itself a tool that

Australian business conditions hold steady while confidence slips into negative territory. Note – this survey was taken before the war. With the surge in energy prices confidence will not have improved. Summary: Australian business conditions held steady in February, while confidence slipped into negative territory. The NAB business conditions index remained at +7, around its

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been trading in a tight range for about a week now, as tighter financial conditions outweighed stagflation risks. The hawkish expectations around interest rates eased yesterday after Trump told CBS that the war could be over soon. Following the comment, Treasury yields and the US dollar weakened as traders started to

A full-length interview with Stelios Pallis, Chief Technology Officer of XS.com As global financial markets evolve faster than ever, technology has become the key driver of growth and competitive advantage. At XS.com, 2025 was a transformative year, strengthening digital infrastructure, integrating AI across core systems, and reinforcing cybersecurity measures worldwide. These efforts culminate in the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: UK consumer spending grew modestly in February, rising 1.1% year-on-year, highlighting fragile household demand. Sentiment weakened as the Middle East conflict raised fears of higher fuel prices, energy bills and inflation. Retail sales growth slowed sharply, with wet weather and cautious spending weighing on the high street. Meanwhile, private sector pay awards accelerated to

Our response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock For now, that is all very uncertain There will be very genuine policy debate at the board meeting with arguments on both sides Rise in oil prices clearly an upside risk to our inflation projection, but still in a state of flux A

Major indices in Europe are eyeing roughly 2% gains and a little more to start the session now. That as oil prices come off the boil from yesterday with markets eyeing the IEA emergency oil reserves release and potential US SPR selling too. Adding to that, US president Trump has also said that the war

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1640-50 levels. After the drop since the start of last week, we’re finally seeing the pair move back above its 100-hour moving average (seen at 1.1597 currently). However, price action continues to

There is a significant amount of supply disruption to the market Almost 17% of total supply from the region goes through the Strait of Hormuz, so it is significant We are bringing the East-West pipeline to full capacity in the next couple of days We can speed it up but the issue was re-routing some

Major US stock indices are rebounding after Trump said that the war could be over soon. He also said that he may look to lower sanctions on Russian oil. He said he is thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz and he has someone in mind to replace the Supreme Leader. Pres. Trump will

China’s trade data for January–February came in much stronger than expected. Exports (USD terms) rose 21.8% y/y (expected 7.1%, previous 6.6%). Imports (USD terms) increased 19.8% y/y (expected 6.3%, previous 5.7%). Trade balance printed at $213.62B, well above the $179.6B forecast (previous $114.10B). — Added, more detail here: China exports surge 21.8% as trade surplus

Japanese GDP Q4 2025, final. 0.3% q/q expected 0.3%, prior -0.6% Annualized 1.3% expected 1.2%, prior -2.3% GDP inflation measure 3.4% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.5% — External Demand 0% q/q expected 0.0%, prior -0.2% Capital Expenditure 1.3% q/q expected 1.1%, prior -0.2% Private Consumption 0.3% q/q expected 0.1%, prior 0.2% — I’ll have more

Australian consumer sentiment edges higher but households remain pessimistic as inflation fears rise. Summary: Australian consumer sentiment rose modestly in March, breaking a three-month run of declines. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute index increased 1.2% to 91.6, though pessimists still outnumber optimists. Sentiment deteriorated later in the survey period as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran intensified. Inflation

It feels like the market sentiment has just been reset in the last 24 hours, which started after the G7 and IEA said that they were going to coordinate a joint release of emergency oil reserves. That adds to the story that the US might be pursuing a hefty SPR release as well. And then

Summary: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded sharply to recent comments from Donald Trump, saying Tehran, not Washington, will determine when the war ends. The IRGC warned that if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, Iran could block regional oil exports. Iranian officials dismissed Trump’s remarks about Iran as “nonsense” and warned regional security would

Earlier on Monday Trump did a TACO for the benefit of markets, sending oil down from its highs and boosting stocks: US Trump: The war could be over soon He has since spoken at a Republican conference where he has delivered much more mixed messaging. Summary: Donald Trump delivered hawkish remarks on the war with

US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon US Trump: The war could be over soon Crude oil futures settle up $3.87 and $94.77 The good news? Crude oil is -16% off the high.The bad news? It is 10% higher on the day Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while

Japanese Household Spending January 2026 -2.5% m/m expected +0.8%, prior -2.9% -1.0% y/y expected +2.5%, prior -2.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier in the session, extending toward support before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. The bounce has helped stabilize price action after the earlier downside pressure, but the broader technical picture still leaves the pair battling between key levels. On the downside, the pair tested support near [insert

Crude oil surged higher over the weekend as geopolitical tensions continued to threaten supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets. However, the rally lost momentum after G7 finance ministers met to discuss the situation and postponed any decision on releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) until tomorrow,

Just recapping this ICYMI. The main impact on the oil price was the news earlier re: US Trump: The war could be over soon But, this info is impactful at the margin. Like I said, ICYMI, see below. Summary: The U.S. is considering easing sanctions on Russian oil to stabilise global energy prices amid Middle

The focus is of course the warmongers, not the data. Nevertheless it’s a busy data agenda. We’ll get revised GDP from Japan, for Q4 2025. The preliminary reading for this was disappointing. In brief, from the day of the flash data: Japan eked out weak Q4 growth, but momentum remained weak: Q4 GDP barely positive,

Pres. Trump has told CBS news: “The war could be over soon” He says that the Iran War is very complete, pretty much” They have no Navy, no communications, they got no Air Force. The US is very far ahead of his initial 4 – 5 week estimated timeframe. Says that ships are moving through

The USDCHF gapped higher at the start of trading, pushing the pair above the 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart). However, the upside momentum quickly stalled. The pair was unable to extend beyond Friday’s high near 0.7828, and sellers stepped in. The failure above that high led to a move back below the

The USDJPY moved higher earlier today, testing a swing area near 158.89, a level that capped rallies on January 15 and January 22. Sellers leaned against that resistance, and the pair has since rotated lower. The move down has now brought the price toward the top of a key swing area between 157.65 and 157.97,

The USD is marginally lower against the CAD today, while the greenback is generally higher against most other major currencies. Earlier in the session, the USDCAD bottomed during the late European morning, reaching a low of 1.35242. That move tested a modest support zone between 1.35219 and 1.35316, where buyers stepped in and pushed the

Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while energy sees a surge The US stock market is experiencing a volatile session today, marked by significant sectoral shifts and investor uncertainty. The day’s trading has highlighted the tumult in the tech and financial sectors, while energy stocks display unexpected gains. 📉 Technology Sector Technology is under pressure today,

The GBPUSD fell sharply at the open, extending below a key swing area between 1.3298 and 1.3305. The downside momentum pushed the pair to a session low at 1.3282 before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound. That recovery gathered momentum as the price moved back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3347, where it

Crude oil prices have eased, trading below $100 at $96.72 after earlier reaching a low of $94.65. The move lower comes as markets speculate that G7 energy ministers may release strategic petroleum reserves when they meet tomorrow, which has helped calm some of the earlier inflation and risk concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. yields are slightly lower,

It’s a tough one, not least when the euro is also under heavy pressure amid surging gas prices. That as the energy disruption continues to permeate, with Iran striking key energy facilities across Gulf nations still. The latest being Bahrain as seen here earlier. The SNB seemed like they were comfortable enough to want to

G7 finance ministers met in their statement said that they will continue to closely monitoring the markets, and stand ready to take necessary measures possibly including the release of strategic petroleum reserves. They said that they would meet again tomorrow. The price of crude oil stored earlier today to a high of $119.48. Since then,

Prior 4.2 No surprises there as the index drops off amid the initial impact of the US-Iran conflict. I would expect investor sentiment to worsen further if given the chance to see another survey after the latest surge in oil and gas prices. For some context, the survey here was conducted from 5 March to

Shares of Aureus Greenway Holdings (NASDAQ: AUGS) surged roughly 55% after the Wall Street Journalreported that the company will merge with Powerus, a drone manufacturer backed by the sons of President Trump. According to the report, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. support Powerus through their investment vehicle American Ventures. The deal will take place

There is a report that the White House is mulling releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), but no formal decision has been made. According to Politico there is fierce opposition to tapping the SPR. Those who oppose tapping the reserve say a release would solve what they consider the underlying problem (war?). The

Ethereum analysis today Ethereum futures are trading near $1,986, stabilizing after the recent pullback from the $2,100 area. This stabilization is happening under a very unusual macro backdrop. The futures market opened less than six hours ago to start the new trading week on March 9, 2026, and global markets immediately reacted to the ongoing

Well, if there was any question about whether Trump was watching the oil futures open, it’s been laid to rest. He wrote on Truth Social: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety

Axios reports that Trump is unhappy that Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday. From the report: Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices jumped above 100$ per barrel today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and the market feared that the conflict could extend beyond what was previously expected. The momentum picked up already on Friday after Qatar’s Energy Minister warned that prices could surge to 150$ on a prolonged war.

Today is now the largest one-day percentage gain in oil futures history, or it will be if it holds. The April contract just crossed a 25% gain. That breaks the record on April 2, 2020. On that day, WTI jumped 24.7% to $25.32 in anticipation of significant production cuts after Trump said Saudi Arabia and

The FX market offered an early indication of a strong risk-off move in early trading this week and the futures market paints that much more clearly. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday and futures are down another 1.4% at the open. Gold initially rallied at the open but is now down $25 in a

Hard to say how the conflict in the Middle East could affect Japan’s economy Many citizens are worried about rising gasoline prices The government is scrutinising to see what steps it can take Any steps taken to mitigate the impact won’t likely involve changes to the fiscal year 2026 budget In just a week, Japan

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak

The bleeding continues after a terrible period last week, which saw major indices in Europe wipe out their year-to-date gains in just a matter of days. That even after having hit fresh record highs in the week before the US-Iran conflict starting up. Here’s a snapshot for the day and how it all factors in

Monday begins quietly, with no significant events scheduled for the FX market, though geopolitical developments in the Middle East could influence USD movements. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index, Japan will publish final GDP q/q, and the U.S. will report the ADP weekly employment change. While this release is usually not

Prior was +0.2% y/y CPI m/m +1.0% vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m CPI was +0.2% PPI y/y -0.9% vs -1.2% expected Prior y/y PPI was -1.4% This is a hot reading and will be even hotter with the energy price rise in March. This is the highest reading in three years. China’s Consumer Price Index,

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. In fact, the focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war and surging oil

Today is now worse than Liberation Day for Australian stock markets. The ASX 200 is down 4.3%, breaking the April 7, 2025 drop of 4.2%. In March 2020, it had drops of 9.7% and 7.4% which were the worst this decade. With today’s drop, the index is back to November levels and it it falls

Even with the decline, oil prices are still some 14% higher on the day so far. It underscores the fact that that the roughly $12 drop is just a minor knock. And that typically is what the IEA reserves release tends to suggest in extraordinary circumstances. It was the same back in 2022 amid the

It’s always darkest just before dawn. We’re one TACO away from a massive reversal in sentiment. The question is: Will Iran (and Israel) agree to stop the bombs if Trump asks? That would be a huge climbdown from the President but he’s not going to like headlines about oil going up the most in one-day

What a scintillating start to the new week this is. Oil prices have surged by well over 20%, poised for its largest one-day gain on record. And we’re talking about prices near $120 again after having initially hesitated to get above $80 last week. I mentioned last week already that the $80 mark was the

The euro is coming under increasing strain as the depth of the energy shortage from the Iran war comes into clearer focus. European countries are highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and — particularly — natural gas from Qatar as vital energy sources. Prices of benchmark European gas have surged and that will

The Financial Times is reporting that G7 finance ministers will be discussing a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by the IEA later today. That in accordance to their meeting set up from last week here. I guess this meeting just went from one that was rather lame to become quite an important

Mon: Eurogroup Meeting, Chinese Inflation (Feb), Japanese GDP Final (Q4),Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Jan) Tue: EIA STEO, Chinese Trade Balance (Jan-Feb), German Trade Balance (Jan) Wed: OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Feb) Thu: CBRT Policy Announcement, IEA OMR,US PPI (Feb) Fri: UK GDP (Jan), US PCE (Jan), US GDP 2nd Est (Q4), US JOLTS (Jan), Fitch

Trump unhappy about Israel’s Iran fuel strikes – report Iran chooses Khamenei’s son as new Supreme Leader China February CPI +1.3% vs +0.8% expected Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected Japanese January labour cash earnings +3.0% vs +2.4% prior Trump: Oil will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat

USD/JPY is closing in on the highest levels of the year. The pair is up 80 pips so far today to 158.59, breaking above last week’s peak and trading at the best levels since January 22. That was the day of the widely-publicized Ministry of Finance rate check via US banks late on a Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at -92K in February, a massive miss against the +55K consensus. To add insult to injury, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 69K. The three-month average pace of job growth is now running at a paltry 6K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Not