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China’s stock market has surged, with the CSI 300 Index up about 25% since February, despite economic headwinds such as weak consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, and a worsening property sector. What’s surprising is that the rally is happening in the absence of stronger fundamentals. Authorities in Beijing are now framing the upturn as the payoff […]

Japan Post Bank plans to roll out a digital yen by the end of fiscal 2026, aiming to give its depositors easier access to digital transactions. The bank, which manages about ¥190 trillion ($1.29 trillion) in deposits and is partly owned by the Japanese government, will introduce DCJPY, a blockchain-based deposit currency developed by DeCurret

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UBS says gold should also benefit from lower real rates and ongoing geopolitical risks. Lower interest rates typically benefit non-interest-bearing bullion. UBS: “our target remains USD 3,700/oz by end-June 2026” (ps there is more on UBS’ FOMC outlook here: UBS tips a Fed ‘four-peat’: four straight rate cuts at the next four meetings) Meanwhile, on

Apple is expected to release the new iPhone 17 series on September 9th (US time). Foxconn in China is the main contract manufacturer. Foxconn is ramping wages higher to attract workers in order to hit shipment targets: media reports indicate that employees at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant are “working overtime every day.” factory launched a series

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

BOJ Deputy Governor Himino says Japan’s real interest rate remains very low Appropriate to continue raising rates in line with improvements in the economy and prices Notes there are both upside and downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation BOJ wants to scrutinise without preset assumptions whether baseline projections materialise Japan–US trade agreement

Australian July Building permits -8.2% m/m expected -4.8%, prior +11.9% For the y/y, % prior +27.4% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan data from its Ministry of Finance. Capital Spending (YoY) (Q2) comes in at +7.6% for a solid beat expected 6.3%, prior 6.4% this is spending on plant and equipment the data will feed into Q3 GDP (economic growth) data due on September 8 and augers well Capital Spending Ex Software (Y/Y) +5.2% expected 4.9%,

The privately surveyed inflation gauge from the Melbourne Institute -0.3% m/m prior +0.9% 2.8% y/y prior 2.9% Core inflation, the trimmed mean, fell 0.2% m/m in August 2.4%y/y (vs. prior 2.6%) AUD/USD has dribbled back to its session low around 0.6537. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea’s exports rose in August but fell short of forecasts as new U.S. tariffs hit shipments. Exports grew 1.3% y/y to $58.4 billion, weaker than the 3.0% expected and slowing from July’s 5.9% gain. The downturn was driven by a 12% plunge in U.S.-bound exports, the sharpest since May 2020, after tariffs on Korean

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing, August 2025 falls from July. Comes in at 49.7 prior 49.9 Remains in contraction. Export orders dropped at the sharpest pace in nearly 18 months, led by weaker demand from China, Europe and the U.S. Factory output decline slowed, but new orders overall continued to fall amid soft demand. Firms

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A car crashed into the Russian consulate in Sydney this morning, local time. Crashed into the gates. A police spokesperson said a person had been arrested in connection with the crash. A police officer was injured in what appears to be an attack. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian business inventories +0.1% q/q, rundown cited along with the possibility of higher demand expected +0.2%, prior +0.8% this will feed into Q2 GDP data … but at +0.1% not by very much Company Profits Pre-Tax +2.1% q/q prior +0.7% Gross Operating Profits -2.4% q/q expected +1.0%, prior -0.5% AUD is around its session low

China S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) comes in way above expected and a big jump from July at 50.5 expected 49.5, prior 49.5 The fastest growth in five months: The expansion beat expectations (49.7) and contrasted with the official PMI, which showed contraction. Supply and demand showed significant improvement. Continued postponement of tariffs at

These Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). For August 2025: Manufacturing PMI 49.4, a slight miss expected 49.5, prior 49.3 this is the fifth consecutive month in contraction for the official manufacturing PMI domestic demand remains disappointing Non-Manufacturing (includes services and construction)

The US dollar will likely finish the day at the lows today. It’s been a rollercoaster week with the greenback erasing most of the losses triggered by Powell’s dovish tilt just to give the gains back heading into the weekend. Today there was no meaningful catalyst for the downside as the PCE data came out

There is no universal recipe for success in trading. However, there are some baselines you should follow to have a better shot at gaining profit. You can learn these vital reference points from your own mistakes—or choose the easier way and study the experience of others. In this article, Kar Yong Ang, financial analyst at

The upside in gold has been supported since Powell’s dovish tilt last Friday. Inflation expectations kept on climbing, while Treasury yields fell into new lows. That caused real yields to fall, giving further boost to gold prices. Today we are seeing a stronger push to the upside although we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. This

It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy. Both mandates are in tensions now. Tariffs are pushing inflation higher and the labour market is slowing. I think tariff-relates price increases will be a one-off. It will take time before we know that for certain but we can’t wait for perfect

The US dollar ends the month lower. Will September be the same? Baker Hughes US oil rig count 412 vs 408 expected Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE for July +1.9% vs +3.4% prior Judge did not rule on the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook today Gold rises back to the upper bound of a

From the agency: the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal

The Judge asked more time to preserve the status quo while she considers the merits of the legal fight. The Fed today said in a court filing that it takes no position in the lawsuit but that it wants a “prompt ruling” to remove “the existing cloud of uncertainty”. This article was written by Giuseppe

1 month annualised +1.9% vs +3.4% prior 6 months annualised +2.6% vs +2.8% prior 12 month annualised +2.7% vs +2.7 prior The 1 month annualised rate is very volatile, so don’t mistake that for inflation coming down. The 6 month and 12 month annualised rates are a better gauge of the trend. This article was

Prior 411 Total rig count 536 vs 538 prior Gas rigs 119 vs 122 prior This is not a market moving indicator as it’s very lagging. Oil rigs count is of course correlated to oil prices. When oil prices trend upwards, oil rigs count increases, and when oil prices trend downwards, oil rigs count decreases.

On Friday evening, the Federal Circuit court struck down the vast majority of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, ruling them illegal under laws that give Congress control of tariffs and tax policy. The 7-4 decision rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was used improperly in the case of fentanyl tariffs against Mexico/Canada/China and

Bloomberg carry the report, gated. In brief: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves could boost revenues by imposing a windfall tax on commercial banks, targeting profits earned from taxpayer-funded deposits at the Bank of England. The Institute for Public Policy Research estimates such a levy would raise £32.3 billion over the current five-year parliament, giving Reeves £3.6

Australian Private sector credit (July 2025) +0.7% m/m expected +0.6%, prior +0.6% higher than expected for a nice beat all three main measures higher (see pic of table below) +7.2% y/y prior +6.8% – Private sector credit data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is closely watched because it provides an early read on

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Caterpillar shares dropped in after hours trade. The firm disclosed it now expects the net impact from tariffs in the US$1.5bn to 1.8bn range, from 1.3 to 1.5 previously expects a US$500mn to 600mn impact in Q3 alone expects its full-year adjusted operating profit margin to come in near the bottom of the target margin

Like myself, perhaps the Bollinger Band was one of the first indicators you discovered at the beginning of your trading journey. After all, it’s supposed to make everything super easy… …just buy low and sell high, right!?…  Well, sure, there may be some lucky wins at the start. But as time goes on… you start experiencing losses…  Worse yet, they

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: No set sequence on how fast to cut rates We know we are going toward neutral, just a question of how fast we get there Says tariffs are a tax Says taxes do not raise inflation US debt on unsustainable path but not problem today, can be paid in years ahead

Tokyo headline CPI 2.6% y/y expected 2.6%, prior 2.9% CPI excluding fresh food 2.5% y/y expected 2.5%, prior 2.9% CPY excluding fresh food & energy (a gauge of underlying inflation) +3.1% y/y, the highest since January 2024 expected 3.0%, prior 3.1% These sort of inflation levels, all well above the Bank of Japan 2% target,

Japan July 2025 data: Retail Sales +0.3% y/y expected -0.2%, prior +0.9% +0.3% y/y expected +1.8%, prior +1.9% Industrial Production -1.6% m/m expected -1.0%, prior +2.1% -0.9% y/y (expected -0.6%, prior 4.4% Forecast 1 month ahead (for August) +2.8% (prior +1.8%) Forecast 2 months (for September) -0.3% m/m (Prev. 0.8%) 00:50 Japanese IP This article

Japan July Unemployment rate 2.3% expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job to applicant ratio 1.22 expected 1.23, prior 1.22 Japan’s labour market remains tight. The inflation data was out at the same time. that’s the focus: Tokyo August 2025 headline CPI 2.6% y/y (2.6% expected) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Vice President Vance in an interview on Thursday, on dismantling Fed independence: “I don’t think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people…POTUS is much better able to make these determinations.” If you were in any doubt

Recapping Nvidia earnings and call. In brief: Nvidia shares slipped after-hours as uncertainty over China sales overshadowed a forecast that still topped Wall Street expectations. The company left Chinese revenue out of its Q3 guidance, citing regulatory risk, while data center sales showed hints of slower cloud spending. More: Nvidia shares fell 3.2% in after-hours

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

ANZ Business Survey August 2025 business confidence improves to 49.7 in August, from 4738 in July own business activity outlook is not so hot, coming at 38.7% from 40.6% in July From the report, in brief: confidence up as firms expect better business conditions ahead as inflation indicators ease 49.7% expect the economy to improve

Japan trade negotiator Akazawa to cancel US visit, Kyodo reports. USD/JPY is up a few points from its earlier lows, circa 147.45 as I update. He was intending to discuss Japanese investment plans into the US: Japan’s head trade negotiator Akazawa is heading back to the US on Thursday This article was written by Eamonn

Q2 2025 Australian Private Capital Expenditure Building Capital Expenditure +0.2% q/q prior +0.9% Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure +0.3% q/q prior -1.3% Estimate 3 for 2025-26 is $174.8b. This is 12.0% higher than Estimate 2 for 2025-26. A bit of a mixed bag this report. The headline is weker than expected. This article was written by Eamonn

Bank of Korea forecasts: Sees 2025 GDP growth at 0.9% Sees 2026 GDP growth at 1.6% Sees 2025 headline inflation at 2.0% vs 1.9% previously Sees 2026 inflation at 1.9% vs 1.8% previously Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT (2210 US Eastern time) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China top trade negotiator Li Chenggang in Canada: Co-chaired joint economic and Trade Committee in Ottawa Two sides had frank, pragmatic and constructive exchanges on improving and developing bilateral economic and trade relations Two sides discussed specific paths for the improvement and development of China-Canada economic and trade relations Both sides agree follow-up communication China

The Financial Times is gated, but in brief: China’s chipmakers are seeking to triple the country’s total output of artificial intelligence processors next year one fabrication plant dedicated to producing Huawei’s AI processors is scheduled to start production as soon as the end of this year two more are due to launch next year FTS

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa, full text: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Nakagawa: If its outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, BOJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate High uncertainties remain over future course of trade policies and their impact BoJ will make monetary appropriate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Crypto fund manager Canary Capital has filed to launch Wall Street’s first spot ETF directly tied to President Trump’s meme coin, TRUMP. Unlike earlier filings this year that proposed indirect exposure through Cayman subsidiaries and U.S. Treasuries, Canary’s application was made under the Securities Act of 1933, ensuring full and direct exposure to the token

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, ticked up to 0.12% in July from 0.01% in June. Notes from analysts at WPAC: Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 0.12% in July. ‘Slow

Via various crypto media outlets: BlackRock acquired $314.9 million in Ethereum over several transactions in the past five days. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $443.91 million, signalling fresh institutional demand for crypto. BlackRock’s purchases underscore rising confidence in Ethereum’s long-term investment potential. ETH had been under price pressure but staged a recovery on

A hot inflation reading from Australia. Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (YoY) (Jul) comes in at +2.8% expected 2.3%, prior 1.9% the m/m is +0.9% (prior 0.2%) goods inflation 2.3% y/y, prior 1.1% The core measure, ‘trimmed mean’ has come in at 2.7% y/y, a very sharp jump indeed prior 2.1% AUD/USD has popped a little

Japan’s head trade negotiator Akazawa is heading back to the US on Thursday will be discussing Japanese investment into the US Asahi TV with the report This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian data – Q2 2025 Construction Work Done +3.0% q/q expected +0.8%, prior +0% Encouraging improvement. Most of the focus is on the monthly CPI, a very hot reading: Australian monthly CPI (July 2025) 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.3% expected) *** Construction work done includes building work (residential and non – residential) and engineering work. This

China will send senior trade envoy Li Chenggang to Washington this week, its first talks in the U.S. capital in years, amid efforts to strengthen dialogue during the tariff truce. Li will meet U.S. officials and business leaders to discuss soybeans, fentanyl tariffs, and tech restrictions, against a backdrop of Trump’s fresh threat of 200%

China data, July Industrial profit -1.5% y/y prior -4.3% YTD -1.7% y/y prior -1.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s CSPI, or services PPI +2.9% y/y in August expected +3.2%, prior +3.2% For the m/m +0.3% prior -0.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump announced Monday that he has dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Trump did so via a letter posted on his social media this is the first time in the central bank’s 111-year history that a sitting Fed governor has been fired Trump says he is removing Fed Governor Cook The response was instant: The

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

US dollar falling on this further and sustained attack on Fed independence. While FX vs. the USD is jumping Gold is surging. Trump is doing everything he can to get the Fed to cut interest rates. He’ll seek to replace Cook with a ‘yes man’ who will do whatver Trump wants if the effort to

Trump warned on Truth Social that he may impose significant new tariffs on countries that maintain measures he considers discriminatory, such as digital taxes or rules targeting U.S. tech firms, and also threatened export restrictions on semiconductors. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

China’s senior trade envoy Li Chenggang will visit Washington this week for the first round of negotiations with U.S. officials under the current tariff truce. The talks, which also include U.S. business leaders, come as both sides work to ease restrictions and maintain stability in trade flows. – A senior Chinese trade negotiator, Li Chenggang,

The news as it happened: Trump says he is removing Fed Governor Cook US dollar move in response: The USD has been slammed lower on the news of Trump moving to fire Fed Governor Cook That US dollar move is extending lower, gold a huge beneficiary. But not the only one. EUR, yen, CHF all

Trump is moving to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Cook has been under pressure for about a week to resign, Trump escalating the matter now. The USD is taking a hit both on the prospoect of this increasing increasing the probability of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in September, and also on

Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, from the August 11-12 meeting: The RBA board saw a strong case for a 25bps cut in the cash rate The board judged some further reduction in the cash rate likely needed over the coming year The stance of policy was still considered somewhat restrictive The pace of rate cuts

Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke on Friday, sending the dollar lower: investingLive Americas FX news wrap 22 Aug: Markets cheer on Powell tilt (for now) USD/JPY has bounced back on a retracement move so far in the Asia morning here. There is no fresh news, although Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke on Saturday: BOJ’s

Starbucks will scale back production at its U.S. coffee plants to a five-day schedule from January as part of CEO Brian Niccol’s cost-cutting drive. The move comes amid sluggish U.S. demand and follows capped raises for salaried employees. — Starbucks plans to reduce output at its five U.S. coffee roasting and packaging facilities, moving to

Keurig Dr Pepper is nearing an agreement to buy Dutch coffee company JDE Peet’s in a deal worth about $18 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal (gated). The acquisition would split the combined group into separate beverage and coffee units, effectively reversing the 2018 Keurig–Dr Pepper merger that analysts had long criticized. Keurig Dr

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius highlighted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone, noting Powell described the labor market as being in “a curious kind of balance” where both supply and demand for workers have slowed in tandem. Powell warned that the downside risks to employment are rising, with the potential for those risks to

Evergrande’s shares will be delisted in Hong Kong, cementing the downfall of China’s onetime property giant. The $50bn developer’s collapse under huge debts triggered a sector-wide crisis, while founder Hui Ka Yan has been fined, banned, and stripped of most of his fortune. – China Evergrande’s shares will be removed from the Hong Kong stock

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

April – June 2025 retail sales data from NZ. New Zealand Retail Sales +2.3% y/y prior +0.7% Retail Sales Volumes +0.5% q/q prior +0.8% Via the Stats NZ report, in brief: “Retail activity recorded a modest increase in the June quarter, with growth seen in most industries” Eight of the 15 retail industries had higher

Pantheon Macroeconomics said Powell’s Friday remarks mark a clear change in tone from the Fed’s July minutes, which had stressed upside inflation risks. Powell now sees the “balance of risks” shifting, with weaker labor data the catalyst. July’s jobs report showed payroll growth averaging just 35k over three months, down sharply from 168k in 2024.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Hedge funds cut their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level in nearly 17 years, as the fading risk of fresh sanctions on Russian crude shifted focus back to oversupply concerns. CFTC data, reported via Bloomberg (gated) showed money managers’ net-long position in West Texas Intermediate futures fell by 19,578 lots to just

Major US stock indices moved sharply higher with the flow of funds heading into the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the way with a gain of 3.86%. The gain was the largest for the index since April 9. The 3 major indices also closed higher with the: Dow industrial average up 846.24 points or 1.89%. That’s

President Trump remarked that Canada’s removal of retaliatory tariffs was “nice” and said he expects to have another call with Prime Minister Carney soon, emphasizing that he wants to be “good to Canada” and had a productive conversation yesterday. Turning to Russia, Trump noted that President Vladimir Putin “may be coming” to the World Cup

The price of crude oil is settling at $63.66, up $0.14 or 0.22%. The high for the day reached $63.93, while the low came in at $63.31, leaving a relatively narrow trading range. Looking across the week, the market established a low at $61.45 on Monday, before testing the falling 100-hour moving average and quickly

The weaker Baker Hughes rig count data for the current week is showing: Oil rigs -1 at 411 Natural gas unchanged at 122 Total Rig count -1 at 538. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD fell sharply this week following the dovish RBNZ rate cut, which included a surprise downgrade in the central bank’s rate path expectations. The move lower drove the pair away from its 100-hour moving average, breaking below the 38.2% retracement of the April-to-July rise and undercutting the key swing area support at 0.5845–0.5860, which

The USDJPY fell sharply, breaking decisively below the 100-hour moving average at 147.775 and the 200-hour moving average at 147.57 (blue and green lines). That move immediately stripped away the bullish bias from a technical perspective and shifted control firmly to the sellers. The decline has since carried the pair into a key swing area/floor

Russia’s Putin: There is a light in the end of the tunnel in Russia-US relations. Contacts continue after Alaska Summit Hopes that the first steps are the start to the full scale restoration of relations; this still depends on the West Is sure Trump’s leadership qualities will help restore ties. Sounds like he just wants

U.S. Credit Ratings Overview Fitch Ratings: The U.S. is rated AA+ with a Stable outlook, reflecting continued confidence in the country’s fiscal resilience. S&P Global Ratings: The U.S. is rated AA+ with a Stable outlook, supported by tariff revenues and strong credit fundamentals. Moody’s Investors Service: In May 2025, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from Aaa

The FHFA director William Pulte will be referring two more people this afternoon for mortgage fraud. It is unclear if they will be other Fed Governors. What we can be somewhat confident about, is it will be politically motivated. If the law is broken, I fully understand, but also in play is that the “Revenge/Power

US major indices cheer on the Powell speech Fitch affirms the US a AA+ with the outlook stable. Russia’s Putin: There is a light in the end of the tunnel in Russia-US relations WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.66 More Trump News: Thought Canada removing retaliatory tariffs was wise. Baker Hughes oil rig count

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UK GFK Consumer Confidence -17 vs -20 expected (-19 prior) This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The article is gated, but here is a link for those who want to read up on it. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

A company spokesperson said OpenAI’s Chief People Officer will depart. She will be leaving the company on Friday. According to Reuters, OpenAI’s CEO announced that she had been promoted to the chief people officer role. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Below is the full agenda for the Jackson Hole Symposium (link to the agenda release is here) Thursday, August 21, 2025 6:00 p.m. MT (8:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 a.m. BST Fri) – Opening Reception and Dinner Host: Jeffrey Schmid, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Friday, August 22, 2025 (8:00 a.m.

China’s foreign minister met with Pakistan’s president in Islamabad, according to Xinhua. He said China is willing to work with Pakistan to deepen traditional friendship and strengthen strategic communication. He added that China is ready to work on upgrading the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Japan nationwide core CPI YY 3.1% vs 3.0% expected (3.3% prior) Japan nationwide overall CPI YY 3.1% vs 3.3% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

As we wait for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, let’s take a look at what some of the nowcast indicators show for growth and inflation. Starting with growth, we have the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracket at 2.3% for Q3. Moving on to inflation, and looking at the Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast, Core CPI YY is currently

Below is a quick summary of the article in the WSJ by Nick Timiraos, here is the link to the full article for those who want more details. Strategic U‑Turn in the Works The Federal Reserve plans to retreat from key elements of its 2020 monetary policy framework, which allowed inflation to run modestly above

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The softer NFP and CPI data have reinforced their conviction that the Fed is back on the path to cutting, with a 25bp move in September still their base case. The stronger July PPI was only a temporary hiccup and isn’t seen as a game-changer. Positioning doesn’t look crowded, which means there’s still room for

Australia Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.9 vs 51.3 Prior Australia Flash Services PMI 55.1 vs 53.8 Prior Australia Flash Composite PMI 54.9 vs 53.6 Prior Composite PMI: 54.9 (Jul 53.8), highest since Apr 2022 Services PMI: 55.1 (Jul 54.1), strongest in 40 months Manufacturing PMI: 52.9 (Jul 51.3) Manufacturing output: 53.9 (Jul 52.3) Drivers: Stronger new

Japan flash manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 48.9 prior Japan flash services PMI 52.7 vs 53.5 prior Japan flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.5 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

US Vice President Vance said Europeans are going to have to take the lion’s share of the burden in security. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan should expand development cooperation and increase trade and investment exchanges. He emphasized the need to improve the security dialogue mechanism and deepen law enforcement and security cooperation. The three sides should strengthen exchanges at all levels and consolidate strategic mutual trust. China said it supports

Highlights of the partnership via a Reuters article, doing the rounds on a few other sites as well though. FanDuel (via parent company Flutter) is teaming up with CME Group to offer event contracts in late 2025. They’ll operate through a freshly formed joint venture acting as a non‑clearing futures commission merchant. Event contracts span

EURNOK — upside risk (base case dips toward ~11.75 first) Trade idea from the bank: Go long EURNOK on a clean break and hold above 12.00, or buy dips into seasonal late-year NOK softness; avoid structural NOK longs for now. Why: Norges Bank set to cut in September and keep easing → weaker NOK carry

Meta froze hiring in its AI division last week, halting both external hires and internal transfers. Exceptions to the freeze require approval from Meta’s Chief AI Officer, Alexandr Wang. A spokesperson framed the move as part of organizational planning and yearly budgeting. Meta recently hired over 50 AI researchers and engineers, often offering massive compensation

Musk told allies he wants to focus his attention on his companies. The Tesla CEO is trying to maintain ties with JD Vance, the potential heir to the MAGA movement He is reluctant to alienate powerful Republicans by starting a third party. I’m sure there are a few Tesla shareholders who will be happy to

Goldman Sachs lowered its November/December 2025 US gas price forecast to $4.00/MMBtu from $4.50. It cut its September/October 2025 forecast by $0.55 to $3.35/MMBtu. Goldman maintained its 2026 US gas price forecast at $4.60/MMBtu, well above forwards at $3.81. The bank continues to recommend a long April 2026 US gas position. Goldman’s revisions reflect softer

Japan Machinery Orders YY 7.6% vs 5.0% expected Japan Machinery Orders MM 3.0% vs -1.0% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Japan’s July exports fell 2.6% year-on-year (poll: -2.1%). Imports fell 7.5% year-on-year (poll: -10.4%). The trade balance showed a deficit of ¥117.5 billion (poll: +¥196.2 billion surplus). Exports to Asia slipped 0.2% year-on-year. Exports to China fell 3.5% year-on-year. Exports to the US dropped 10.1% year-on-year. Exports to the EU declined 3.4% year-on-year. This article

People’s Bank of China rate setting: 5-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.50% vs 3.50% expected 1-year at 3% vs. 3% expected In 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) implemented significant reforms to its monetary policy framework to enhance the effectiveness of its policy transmission and better support economic growth. Traditionally, the PBoC utilized multiple

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China’s Wang Yi, after meeting with India’s Modi, said they reached an agreement to restart dialogue mechanisms in various fields. He said under the current international situation, the strategic value of China-India cooperation is more prominent. Both sides should firmly manage differences so border disputes do not affect overall bilateral ties. A new consensus was

Ahead of the RBNZ, below is a quick snapshot of today’s implied volatility support and resistance levels for NZDUSD, EURNZD, NZDJPY and AUDNZD. NZDUSD: 0.59200 (resistance) – 0.58600 (support) EURNZD: 1.98200 (resistance) – 1.96800 (support) NZDJPY: 87.400 (resistance) – 86.500 (support) AUDNZD: 1.09600 (resistance) – 1.09100 (support) These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility

US Treasury Chief Bessent said the US has had very good talks with China. He said the status quo with China is working very well. He expects the US economy to pick up in Q4. He acknowledged there are some distributional problems in the economy. When asked if the trilateral meeting will be in Budapest,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Rubio told Fox News he will work with European allies and non-European countries to build a security guarantee for Ukraine. He said he was in the room when Trump and Putin spoke. Rubio confirmed that Trump suggested to Putin that he meet with Zelenskiy. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Inflation: July CPI in line, but core rose to 3.1% y/y, driven by sticky services. Goods inflation muted, tariff effects slower than expected. Outlook: PCE inflation seen peaking ~4.5% annualized; year-end ~3% headline, 3.2% core. Risks of inflation staying above target into 2026. Fed vs. markets: Markets price near-certain September cut (~93%). Fed speakers tilted

Firstly, let me start by saying that exhaustion in price action does not mean reversal. On strong momentum moves, the smallest pullback can ‘reset’ fairly quickly, so this is not a fear-mongering update at all, just an observation. Personally, I’m in the buy-and-hold camp when it comes to BTC because I don’t have the appetite

Zelenskiy said Ukraine needs not a pause in war but real peace. He discussed security guarantees with Trump and European leaders. He said he received an important signal from the US on being part of the guarantees and helping to coordinate them. Zelenskiy said the US offered to hold a trilateral meeting as soon as

Today’s Asia-Pacific calendar is another snoozer with very little to get excited about. We have AU Consumer Sentiment which shouldn’t be enough to move the needle. Later during the EU and US overlap we do have CA CPI coming up which could be more interesting. There could be a tradable opportunity if the surprise is

Traders and analysts are looking for a slight drop in headline inflation for July, with YY CPI expected to land at 1.8%, down from 1.9% in June. But the more important core measure (Trim and Median) is expected to stay elevated around 3.1%. This is important, because even though headline is seen drifting lower, the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia Consumer Sentiment Aug 2025: 5.7% vs 0.6% prior Consumer Sentiment Index jumped 5.7% to 98.5, the highest in 3½ years, almost back to positive territory RBA’s third rate cut this year (cash rate now 3.6%) was the main driver of the boost Family finances outlook improved: next 12 months sub-index rose to 106.8 (above

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

NATO Secretary General Rutte said it was a very successful day in Washington. He confirmed that security guarantees were discussed. He added that more details on the guarantees will be discussed in the coming days. Rutte called it a breakthrough that the US will get involved. He noted that the US and some other countries

Commodities like gold, silver and oil are on the back foot this morning as markets digest the weekend’s Trump/Putin meeting. There were no major breakthroughs, no concessions, which means there isn’t a whole lot for markets to get excited about. However, Oil started the week with a gap to the downside, and as the Asia-Pac

The National Hurricane Center said life-threatening surf and rip currents are likely across the US eastern seaboard as Hurricane Erin becomes a very large storm this week. Hurricane Erin is about 155 miles (245 km) east-northeast of Grand Turk Island with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h). Large hurricanes and weather events can

Trump said President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Trump added that the war’s roots go back to Crimea being taken during Obama’s presidency without a shot being fired, and to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. Let’s just hope they say thank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Below is a quick snapshot of today’s implied volatility support and resistance levels for EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: 1.17600 (resistance) – 1.16600 (support) USDJPY: 148.00 (resistance) – 146.400 (support) GBPUSD: 1.36100 (resistance) – 1.3500 (support) These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility and can be used as dynamic and market-based levels of support

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Not any major changes in terms of FX positioning from last week. The EUR remains the biggest net long (stretched above the 80 percentile of the past 52 weeks and looking at net-positioning as a percentage of open interest). In comparison, the GBP is the second largest net short, with markets shifting positioning very rapidly

Singapore Non-Oil Exports YY -4.6% vs -1.8% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Nikkei bulls will be celebrating this morning as the index hits a new all-time high, and is within striking distance of the 44000 mark. There aren’t many specific catalysts to point to for the move this morning, but always worth keeping the JPY in view when trading the Nikkei. The correlation isn’t perfect, but we

South Korean President Lee ordered preparations for partial, step-by-step implementation of existing inter-Korean agreements, according to Newsis. Keeping peace is truly competent security Inter-Korean relation important Believes courage to take steps to ease tension with North Korea is needed This signals a cautious move toward engagement with North Korea. However, the impact is likely limited

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. A snapshot shows: German DAX, -0.07% France’s CAC, +0.67% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.42% Spain’s Ibex, +0.47% Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.1%. For the trading week shares are closing higher German DAX, +0.81% France’s CAC, +2.33% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.47%. The close for the week is

Trump told Fox news on his way to Alaska to meet with Russia’s Putin If the Putin meeting does not go well, “I would walk” Does not know what would make the meeting a success. Europe is not telling me what to do. Want to see a ceasefire; Won’t be happy if it not today.

US stocks close mixed. Retail Sales solid, but inflation a concern. Putin now lands on US land for summit with Pres. Trump Pres. Trump’s plane lands in Alaska ahead of the meeting with Russians Putin Baker Hughes oil rig count +1 at 412 European indices close the week on a mixed note Trump: If the

The EURUSD is higher in the week but had its shares of ups and downs. Yesterday, the price made a run to the downside, but found support buyers against its rising 200 hour moving average, the underside of the broken trendline, and the high of a swing area. That kept the buyers in play in

As the leaders respective planes land on the tarmac in Alaska, and the world awaits the vision of both leaders on US soil, the US has reportedly readied a suite of options to punish Russia if the talks fail. Including sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil if Putin balks on cease-fire. The hype has been laid

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count stays steady: Oil rig count +1 at 412 Gas rig count -1 at 122 Total rig count unchanged at 539 Crude oil is trading down $0.72 or -1.13% at $63.24.. For the trading week, the price is near unchanged at current levels. The price last week closed at $63.33.

President Trump’s plane has landed in Alaska ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled to begin at 3 PM ET — about 40 minutes from now. Reports indicate the talks could last for hours, meaning any outcomes are unlikely before the U.S. market close. Objective: The primary goal is to find a

U.S. equities ended the session with a mixed performance as investors weighed hopes for peace, hopes for a rate cut, but concerns about inflation continue to weigh as import prices rose sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to avoid finishing in negative territory largely due to a sharp gain in UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump: “We have a very good chance of getting there. We didn’t get there but we have a very good chance of getting there.” We made great progress Just a few points left. One point not agreed to is significant. Very good chance of getting there There is no deal until there is a deal

New Zealand Food Price Index July 2025: +0.7% m/m prior +1.2% for the y/y +5.0% Earlier: New Zealand July manufacturing PMI 52.8 (up from prior 48.8) RBNZ tipped to cut cash rate to 3% as inflation cools and jobless rate hits 4-year high — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of

I posted on the Japanese data earlier: Japan preliminary Q2 GDP +0.3% q/q (expected +0.1%) the fifth consecutive quarter of GDP increase better GDP = less dovish BoJ bias = higher yields, stronger yen. JPY has since gained: USD/JPY is circa 147.60 from early highs above 147.80 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa on GDP: Latest data confirm the economy is recovering modestly. Must remain mindful of risks from US trade policies that could weigh on growth. Rising prices could dampen consumer sentiment and hurt private consumption. Akazawa not going much away with these vanilla type comments. Tariffs do pose a rsik to Japan’s

Standard Chartered has sharply raised its Ethereum price forecasts, lifting its 2025 year-end target from US$4,000 to US$7,500 and its 2028 target from US$7,500 to US$25,000. The bank cited stronger industry conditions, surging corporate treasury demand, and growing institutional participation in staking, DeFi, and infrastructure. The upgrade marks a reversal from March, when the bank

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Greg had the news earlier on the firm. Shares of Intel surged over 7% on Thursday after Bloomberg reported the US government may take an equity stake in the chipmaker. The potential investment would support construction of Intel’s planned Ohio chip complex, a project announced in 2022 with an initial US$20 billion outlay that could

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Crude oil markets are focused on Friday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, with a potential Ukraine ceasefire set to dominate discussions. The war has been seen as a support for oil prices, as ongoing hostilities constrain Russian crude supply to global markets. Brent is little changed here

Japan’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, with stronger business spending and net exports offsetting a drag from inventories. Japan Q2 GDP (Preliminary) GDP SA (Q/Q): 0.3% (est 0.1%; prev 0.0%) GDP Annualised SA (Q/Q): 1.0% (est 0.4%; prev –0.2%) GDP Nominal SA (Q/Q): 1.3% (est 1.4%; prev 0.9%) GDP Deflator (Y/Y): 3.0% (est 3.2%; prev 3.3%)

All China July new home prices -2.8% y/y (June -3.2%) -0.3% m/m (June -0.3%) Reuters calculations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan warns tariffs could shave GDP, lift inflation to post-war highs in scale JP Morgan says US tariffs are likely to deliver a meaningful hit to both economic growth and inflation, as Wall Street economists brace for the bulk of the impact to filter through over coming months. “Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO, an intergovernmental organization led by China and Russia) conference will will take place about two weeks after Trump and Putin meet in Alaska. will discuss the war in Ukraine, and also the political rifts opened by the tariffs being imposed by Trump leaders from more than 20 countries, including Putin,

Bitcoin and Ethereum (above US$4700) are still rising. There is no fresh news, but the propsect of Fed rate cuts is helping along almost everything vs. the USD. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

MUFG says political, Fed uncertainty keeping risk premium in USD; carry trades gain MUFG says the US dollar is holding onto a higher risk premium as investors weigh lingering uncertainty over a potential dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s leadership and fresh concerns about political interference in US economic data. The caution comes despite a

The Australian equites market opened higher on Thursday S&P/ASX200 up 55 points, or 0.6%, at 8,879 Gains were broad-based nine of 11 sectors in positive territory financial stocks led the rebound after yesterday’s losses communication services lagging This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sterling hits three-week high as Fed-BOE policy gap supports gains. The pound climbed to its strongest level in nearly three weeks against the US dollar on Thursday, supported by widening interest rate differentials as markets weigh a more dovish Federal Reserve against a cautious Bank of England. Data on Tuesday showed a smaller-than-expected decline in

Employment report from Australia for July 2025 Employment Change a slight miss at +24.5K expected 25K, prior 2K Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.2%, prior 4.3% Full-Time Employment +60.5K, cracking good result! prior -38.2K Part-Time Employment -36K prior 40.2K Participation rate 67.0% expected 67.1%, prior 67.0% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Despite the solid lead from Wall Street Japan’s equity market is under pressure: Nikkei is down around 1% Meanwhile the yen is higher, USD/JPY down to lows circa 146.65 I don’t know if anyone saw it., but Reuters had a piece mid-week about pressure on the Bank of Japan to sort out its concenr that

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales July 2025 +0.2% m/m prior +0.5% +1.7% y/y prior -0.4% NZD/USD is barely moving on this data release. Circa 0.5955. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan benchmark share price indexes, Nikkei and Topix, have both hit all-time highs Follows another stron day on Wall Street: investingLive Americas FX news wrap 12 Aug: CPI rise does not scare the market. *** TOPIX is the Tokyo Price Index covers all domestic companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Japanese data is here from earlier: Japan data – July PPI +0.2% m/m (expected +0.2%) & +2.6% y/y (expected +2.5%) The PPI is also known as the corporate goods price index (CGPI). It measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services. That 2.6% y/y is the fourth straight month of

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Reuters Tankan for August 2025: Manufacturing index +9 vs. +7 in July, marking a second month of improved sentiment transport machinery sector, including autos, posted the strongest gains, climbing to +25 from +9, but is also forecast to retreat in coming months. Non-manufacturing index +24 vs. +30 in July, the first fall for this in

The PPI data comes from the Bank of Japan. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jul) +2.6, higher than expected but down from June expected 2.5%, prior 2.9% Producer Price Index (MoM) (Jul) +0.2%, in line and higher than in June expected 0.2%, prior -0.2% This data is not consumer level inflation, but it feeds into it.

I’ve posted on the tailwinds for Ether before. Ethereum’s price gains are being driven by a powerful mix of regulatory clarity, institutional interest, technical progress, and its expanding role in stablecoins and DeFi. More: Stablecoin growth & regulation tailwinds: Ethereum provides the infrastructure for nearly half of all stablecoins. The GENIUS Act and other U.S.

A note from Morgan Stanley highlight the 3 risks to the stock market rally: Cooling labour market – Recent jobs data showed weaker-than-expected hiring, downward revisions to prior months, and a decline in job openings, suggesting the employment picture may be softening and potentially signalling slower economic growth. Skewed Q2 earnings – While headline earnings

Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q2) 3.4%, higher than the estimate and matching Q1 expected 3.3%, prior 3.4% the Reserve Bank of Australia forecast was 3.3% Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.8%, in line with the estimate and down a tic from Q1 expected 0.8%, prior 0.9% Australia’s Q2 wage data surprised slightly to the upside

Singapore’s economy expanded 4.4% year-on-year in Q2, slightly above the earlier 4.3% estimate, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.4% following a 0.5% contraction in Q1. The Ministry of Trade and Industry upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5–2.5% from 0.0–2.0%, citing stronger-than-expected first-half performance. Non-oil domestic exports are still expected to grow 1.0–3.0% this year,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Greg had this news hours ago, just a formality now Trump extends China tariff deadlines 90 days Trump: Just signed an executive order that will extend tariff suspension on China for another 90 days All other elements of agreement will remain same This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan benchmark share price indexes, Nikkei and Topix, have both hit all-time highs *** TOPIX is the Tokyo Price Index covers all domestic companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) designed to track the overall trend of the Japanese stock market includes over 2,000 companies a free-float adjusted market capitalization-weighted

Singapore central bank chief economist: Reaffirms that policy remains appropriate and Mas is well placed to respond to risks remains appropriate after accounting for factors affecting domestic growth and inflation says that a gradualist approach under conditions of uncertainty is useful as we update our assessment in a timely manner at our quarterly reviews Earlier

China has updated its export control lists, introducing provisions that allow companies to apply for permission to trade with entities currently subject to restrictions. As part of the changes, Beijing has lifted export control measures on 12 US-based entities and indicated it will grant licences to exporters that meet regulatory requirements. Suspends adding some US

HSBC says its economists expect further signs of disinflation to emerge alongside a cooling UK labour market, paving the way for the Bank of England to maintain a steady pace of 25-basis-point rate cuts each quarter until Bank Rate reaches 3.0% by the third quarter of 2026. On the currency front, the bank forecasts sterling

Trump taps EJ Antoni to head BLS, sparking concerns over partisanship and expertise President Trump has nominated EJ Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following Trump’s dismissal of the previous commissioner over job report revisions. The pick has drawn sharp criticism, much of it centred on Antoni’s

National Australia Bank Business Survey for July 2025 Business confidence rises to 7, a three-year high strength in services and construction prior 5 Business conditions fall to 7 prior 9 Some of the sub measures: business sales 11 in July, from 8 prior profitability 2, prior 4 employment 1, from 4 prior quarterly growth in

China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) halted production for at least three months at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province. The suspension, triggered by the expiry of its mining permit on August 9, has fuelled speculation of wider supply cuts as Beijing seeks to curb overcapacity Analysts cautioned the move is unlikely to

The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today and tomorrow, Monday, August 11, 2025 and Tuesday, August 12, 2025. After last month’s shock decision to hold the cash rate steady in the face of a near unanimous expectation for a rate cut (Deutsche Bank and Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis, were

China’s factory-gate prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were flat, signalling that weak domestic demand and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the economy. The data was published over the weekend, ICYMI: China July data – China’s consumer price inflation flat y/y, but higher than expected m/m Consumer prices were unchanged

We’re open! The new week for US equity index futures has begun: S&P 500 eminis +0.15%, Nasdaq futures +0.2% Earlier news: US equity index futures are about to open – to HUGE news … not in a good way Japan is on Mountain Day holiday today – markets are closed. US bond trade impacted. Reports

The Financial Times has reported that Nvidia and AMD have struck a deal with the US government to hand over 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China, in exchange for export licences for those semiconductors. I posted on this earlier: Reports that Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Bowman was speaking at a bankers’ conference in Colorado Springs, on Saturday. The Wall Street Journal (gated) report: the apparent weakening in the labor market outweighs the risks

I posted the news here from the Financial Times: Reports that Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues to US government More in that article. The gist is: Nvidia and AMD have struck a deal with the US government to hand over 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer met privately with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday to deliver a message: his tariffs were damaging the very automotive industry he has pledged to protect. The conversation marked Whitmer’s third meeting with Trump at the White House since he took office in January. AP carried the report.

Discover the truth on how trading is a get rich slow scheme The post Trading Is A Get Rich Slow Scheme appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Bowman citied the collapse in the US labour market in her reasoning arguing for three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. The July

China’s consumer prices were flat y/y in July, as government efforts to rein in excessive competition offered some relief from deflationary pressures. Analysts caution that the path out of deflation will be long and may require stronger stimulus measures. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (July) 0.0%, no change from a year earlier, beating forecasts for a

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Putin told US envoy Witkoff he would agree to a cease-fire if Ukraine withdrew forces from all of Ukraine’s Eastern Donestk region. How bad do Ukraine and Russia want peace? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Yesterday in a post, I spoke about the messy AUDUSD chart (see post here). The view has not changed much today. It is still messy. Neverthess, even amongst the ups and downs, the markets will leave little nuggets from the charts that traders can use to defing the bias, the risk and the targets. In

From Bloomberg: The Trump administration suggested it would issue a new policy clarifying that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs, after the government stunned traders by ruling that they would be subject to duties. Comex gold futures surged to a new all-time high earlier in the day, but has since come off. The

PM Carney speaking on the job data released this morning said: Wage growth now outpacing CPI growth The average hourly wages increase by 3.5% versus 3.2% month. However looking at the chart still near the lows going back to the pandemic. Carney also weighed in on Israelis intention to occupy all of Gaza saying: Israel

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Pres. team is expanding the search for the new Fed chair. According to the article: New Fed chair contenders added: Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush adviser Marc Sumerlin have been added to the list of roughly 10 candidates. Other top candidates: Kevin

The EURUSD began its upside move last Friday after finding support at the 100-day moving average, which served as a strong base for buyers. That momentum extended into this week, with the pair breaking above the 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement (1.1558) of the decline from the July high. The bullish move continued

The NASDAQ index led the market higher today and this week, closing at yet another record high and extending to a new intraday high, surpassing the high price from July 31 at 21457.48. The high price today reached 21464.53. The S&P also moved higher but closed just below its prior record high at 6389.77. The

The GBPUSD bottomed this week on Tuesday near 1.32594. The Bank of England on Wednesday cut rates by 25 basis points but it was a hawkish cut as the MPC vote was 5– 4, not as high as the 7-2 expected. The price moved up to the 100 day moving average on Wednesday. On Thursday,

The weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes is showing: Oil rig +1 at 411 Gasoline -1 at 123 Total rigs -1 at 539 The price of oil is trading is trading up $0.10 at $63.98. The price remains below its 100 day moving average at $64.89 keeping bearish bias versus the daily moving averages

Putin would agree to cease-fire if Ukraine ceded Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea NASDAQ index closes at a new record high and also makes a new intraday high today Trumps team is expanding the search for the Fed Chair White House to clarify misinformation on gold tariffs Canada’s Carney: Pressed on jobs data said wage growth

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

S&P Global sees tariffs slowing 2025 oil demand growth Despite avoiding a major global recession, higher tariffs are expected to slow world oil demand sharply in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The group now forecasts demand growth of 635,000 barrels a day — less than half the 1.3 million b/d projected before U.S.

Bank of Japan July meeting ‘Summary of Opinions’. At this meeting the Bank left its short term rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Headlines via Reuters: One member said BoJ likely to continue raising rates if economy, prices move in line with its forecast One member said given high uncertainty on whether BoJ’s forecast materialises,

Japanese trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa said the U.S. has agreed to correct a presidential order on tariffs and refund any excess duties collected in error. Speaking in Washington after talks with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Akazawa stressed there was no disagreement between the two countries over reciprocal tariffs. Under the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

All 40 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at its August 12 meeting, following softer inflation and labour market data. Headline inflation fell to 2.1% last quarter — near the bottom of the RBA’s 2–3% target range — while

The Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary (post is here) revealed a wide range of views among policymakers on the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes, with members weighing persistent inflation pressures against uncertainty from trade policy and the global economy. USD/JPY popped up a little on the release. As a recap: Several

Japan data – June Household Spending +1.3% y/y expected +2.6%, prior +4.7% -5.2% m/m expected -3.0%, prior +4.6% Still to come from Japan today is the ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the Bank of Japan July 30-31 meeting: Economic calendar in Asia 08 August 2025 – we hear more from the Bank of Japan The Bank

SMIC says demand still outpacing supply, rush orders set to ease The head of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) said current demand for its products continues to exceed available supply. Speaking on Friday, the CEO noted that the wave of rush orders and accelerated shipments seen in recent months is expected to slow in the

Akazawa with the positive vibes (I hope he got it in writing this time!): Japanese trade envoy Akazawa reckons he’s made progress in US trade talks (gets a refund!) The Nikkei has responded with a jump higher. JPY is slipiing, its around 147.30 or so, also helping the Nikkei along. This article was written by

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Q2 EPS: Reported EPS: $3.14 Adjusted EPS (ex-items): $3.19 (vs. $3.14 est.) Revenue: $6.84B (vs. ~$6.7B est.) +5% y/y Global Comparable Sales: +3.8% (vs. +2.6% est.) U.S. Same-Store Sales: +2.5% (vs. -0.7% y/y) Profit: Net income rose 11% y/y to $2.25B — Apart from the company news, there is a macro angle to this. This

The Bank of England is expected to cut its key interest rate from 4.25% to 4.0% on Thursday—its fifth reduction since August 2024. The move comes as the central bank faces conflicting pressures: a weakening labour market, partly worsened by recent tax hikes and Trump trade tensions, versus persistent inflation running above target. While Governor

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the U.S. is not rushing to impose additional tariffs on China over its purchases of Russian oil, despite having just raised duties on Indian imports for the same reason. Responding to questions about whether Beijing would face secondary tariffs similar to those announced for India, Navarro noted that

Further reports of Trump to slam an extra 15% tariff on ALL Japan imports. Asahi newspaper citing White House official: U.S. to add 15% tariff on all Japanese imports U.S. will not apply exceptions to Japan for products that already have tariffs exceeding 15% – In summary, Japan had expected items currently tariffed at <

Here’s the summary of the insanity: Trump says he’ll hammer chip / semiconductor imports with a 100% tariff With me so far? Good. Trump then says that he’ll exempt firms investing, or even intending to invest, in US manufacturing from the massive tariff Following along OK? Good, here’s the earlier post on this: Trump’s 100%

I’ve done much posting on this, so not gonna repeat myself. Here: There are some reports that Trump is going to hit Japan with an extra 15% tariff, yen hit Yen has stabilised after massive news that Trump could slam Japan with extra 15% tariff That yen stability didn’t last: Further reports of Trump to

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said the oil market is returning to a more balanced dynamic, with global demand expected to grow by around 1% this year and again in 2026. Auchincloss was speaking in a CNBC interview. His view, while broadly aligned with consensus forecasts, came with an important but underappreciated implication: non-OPEC supply growth

Trade data from Australia for June 2025. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ethereum Futures Technical Analysis with tradeCompass – August 6, 2025 At the time of this analysis, Ethereum futures (ETH) are trading at $3,588, exactly flat from yesterday’s close. According to today’s tradeCompass, we enter bearish territory below $3,615, while a bullish breakout requires a sustained move above $3,655. Given that price is already under the

Deutsche Bank expects a further divergence in the near-term paths of Europe’s two major central banks, forecasting another rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) this week (the Bank meet Thursday) while suggesting the European Central Bank (ECB) may now be finished with its own easing cycle. In a note to clients, Deutsche Bank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Technical Analysis with tradeCompass (August 6, 2025) The tradeCompass snapshot Current Price: 4.216% Bullish above: 4.230 Bearish below: 4.224 Primary Bias: Bearish (at the time of analysis) 10-Year Yield Partial Profit Targets: For Bears (if and when bearish threshold is activated): 4.207 – just above yesterday’s Value Area Low 4.194 –

Japan Labour Market Data – June Nominal Cash Earnings (y/y): +2.5% (vs. +3.1% expected; prior +1.0%; revised prior +1.4%) Real Cash Earnings (y/y): –1.3% … this is the sixth straight month of decline (vs. –0.7% expected; prior –2.9%; unrevised) Cash Earnings – Same Sample Base (y/y): +3.0% (vs. +3.5% expected; prior +2.3%; revised prior +2.1%)

HSBC is warning of renewed downside pressure on the Japanese yen in the near term, citing a combination of U.S. monetary policy risks, domestic political uncertainty, and cautiousness from the Bank of Japan. While HSBC economists believe the BoJ’s recent upward revisions to its inflation and growth forecasts strengthen the case for a 25 basis

New Zealand’s labour market remained soft in Q2, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its August policy meeting. Earlier: New Zealand Q2 Unemployment rate 5.2% (vs. expected 5.3%) The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.2%, up from 5.1% in Q1, while employment

UBS says the Australian dollar is well-positioned to benefit from a broad rotation out of the U.S. dollar, with strategists identifying the AUD/USD as an attractive long opportunity at current levels. The recent rebound in the greenback dragged the pair down from a nine-month high near 0.66 to just below 0.6430. While AUD/USD has since

Via the Kansas City Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern. In a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia S&P Global July final services PMI comes in at a much improved 54.1 June was 51.8 Composite 53.8 June was 51.6 — Australia’s services sector saw stronger growth in July, marking a solid start to the second half of 2025, according to S&P Global. New business rose sharply, and export demand stabilised after four

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report: fear a decline in the world-leading economic statistics underpinning U.S. markets In brief: Banks have fielded calls from clients, anxious that they may need to rethink how they invest if inflation and employment statistics tied to U.S. investments can’t be trusted. Some worry that the firing marks

There are a few reports on Société Générale’s view doing the rounds. 2026 index could reach 6,900 by year-end a potential range of 6,500-7,250 if re-rating occurs in a rate-cutting environment say rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could push the index above 7500 in 2026 and into bubble territory SG cite positive impacts from:

New Zealand ANZ World Commodity Price Index, July 2025 -1.8% m/m prior -2.4% ANZ cite lower dairy product prices weighed +10.7% y/y, ANZ say supported by higher dairy and red meat prices The NZD Commodity Price Index fell 1.2% m/m on a stronger currency. As part of the report, ANZ discuss Global shipping prices generally

Trump will be on CNBC Squawk Box Tuesday 8am US time – pre mkt. You don’t need me to tell you he ain’t gonna be bearish, right? — CNBC’s Squawk Box is a live, weekday morning program focused on pre-market financial news, market analysis, and interviews with investors, CEOs, and policymakers. It airs from 6–9

Japan Jibun bank Services PMI for July 2025 53.6, expanded at its fastest pace in five months flash 53.5, prior 51.7 improvement was driven by strong domestic demand, which more than offset a sharp drop in export orders and weaker tourist numbers new domestic business orders grew at the quickest pace in three months export

Japan trade negotiator Akazawa plans to visit U.S. from Tuesday To push U.S. to give order to take auto tariff to take effect as soon as possible One of purposes of U.S. visit is to confirm details of the latest tariff agreement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan June 2025 meeting minutes, full text. The June meeting minutes have been dated by the July meeting. Headlines via Reuters: Many members said inflation somewhat overshooting forecast but must scrutinise economic developments due to downside risk to growth from US tariff policy One member said must support economy with current rate level

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Goldman Sachs is holding its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 steady at $56 per barrel, despite the recent production increase announced by OPEC+. The bank expects the oil-producing alliance to pause any further supply hikes, citing a build-up in OECD oil stockpiles as a key factor that could temper the group’s willingness to raise

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China is restricting the supply of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, creating production delays and driving up costs across the U.S. defense sector. These minerals — essential for everything from bullets to advanced weapons systems — are increasingly difficult to source as firms scramble to find non-Chinese alternatives. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carry

J.P. Morgan’s North America Economic Research team has raised alarm over the dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, warning that it risks undermining the integrity of U.S. economic data and, by extension, the conduct of monetary policy and financial stability. In a note titled “Concerning News from the BLS,” the bank

ANZ with their take on the slide in the price of oil: “A sharply cooling U.S jobs market and the fastest contraction in factory activity in nine months raised concerns of weaker demand” for crude oil The Wall Street Journal pass on the info from ANZ Research analysts. And add that: Media reports that OPEC+

A new research paper from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) explores how businesses set prices and how this behaviour affects inflation—both now and in the future. Key Findings: Price-setting is a major driver of inflation: The way firms adjust prices for goods and services plays a critical role in determining the pace and

A senior Canadian official said U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are expected to speak in the coming days following Washington’s decision to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered under the USMCA trade pact. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s cabinet minister responsible for U.S. trade relations, told CBS’s Face the

Trump spoke with reporters on his way back to Washington after a weekend golfing. He covered various topis. Some remarks: Nuclear submarines sent to the region of Russia Russia is good at avoiding sanctions His envoy Witkoff may be going Wednesday or Thursday, Witkoff message will be stop the killing Will be announcing who will

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge surged by 0.9% in July, marking the largest monthly increase in 19 months. On an annual basis, inflation rose to 2.9%, up from 2.4% in June, signalling renewed price pressures in the economy. Trimmed mean Australian +0.8% m/m in July, also the the most in 19 months 2.6% y/y

New York Fed President John Williams shared his views on the labor market, inflation, and interest rates in a Friday interview with Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos in New York. The Journal have provided a full transcript, which is really interesting. The journal is gated, but if you can access it, link. A notable

The major US indices are closing sharply lower with the NASDAQ index and the small-cap Russell index down over 2% each. The cause: August 1 tariffs went into effect Jobs data came in much lower, with revisions the big contributor to the weakness News that the US was positioning nuclear subs in “appropriate regions” as

Oil rigs -5 at 410 Gas rigs +2 at 124 Total -2 at 540 Crude oil is sharply lower with the price down -2 dollars at $67.27. The low price reached $67.05. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price decline is testing its 200-hour moving average at $67.08. Earlier today, the price fell below

As London/European traders look for the exits, the major indices are closing sharply lower. The tariff news and threats of global slowdown (highlighted by the US jobs report) helped to push prices lower. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, -639.50 points or -2.66% at 23425.98. France’s CAC, -225.80 point or -2.91% at

It is early in the growth estimate for Q3 from the Atlanta Fed GDP model. It has dipped as a result of the disappointing economic news released today. The model now sees a growth rate of 2.1% down from 2.3% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted

Pres. Trump has posted a warning to Russia due to provocative statements from the former Pres. of Russia Dmitry Medvedev. He writes. Recall, Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, criticized former U.S. President Donald Trump for issuing ultimatums aimed at Russia. In a message on X a few days ago, he wrote: “Each

Pres. Trump is back at it. Fire the BLS Commisioner of Labor Statistics. Dr. Erika McEntarfer is a Biden appointee and implies she is manipulating the data. Trump says the economy is BOOMING But, the Fed chief needs to be put “out to pasture” as he is too late…. No word on the tariffs. My

Now that Pres. Trump has fired the person in charge of the BLS employment report, Axios wrote an article that outlines the general BLS process to the jobs release. Here is the down and dirty without getting too much into the weeds: Release timing: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a nonpartisan agency under the

The July U.S. jobs report shifted the narrative swiftly. Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledged this change, noting that the data warrants a reassessment of Fed policy—shifting the emphasis from inflation risks alone to a more balanced view that includes growing concerns about the labor market. The report clearly points to a loss of momentum in

Fed Gov.Adriana Kugler is resigning her position effective August 8, to accept a position at Georgetown. That opens an appointment from Pres. Trump. Fed governors also have a permanent vote on the Fed. With the president already licking his chops to appoint a new Fed chair, this gives him a total of two appointees. Recall

Major US indices close lower on tariffs, jobs, nuclear subs and a firing Why are jobs revised and is there a better way? I think so. It starts with the data. Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler announces her resignation from the Fed Board effective August 8 Trump: Jobs data is manipulated lower. The economy is booming

Japan June unemployment rate remains at 2.5% expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job to applicant ration 1.22 expected 1.25, prior 1.24 This data does not tend to move around JPY much at all, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Friday the government acknowledges the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold interest rates steady, noting that policymakers acted prudently amid ongoing uncertainty in both domestic and global economic conditions. aware the BOJ chose to keep rates unchanged while mindful of the need to scrutinise developments at home and abroad,

20% tariff on Taiwan 19% tariff on Cambodia 19% tariff on Thailand 19% tariff on Malaysia 20% tariff on Vietnam 39% tariff on Switzerland 19% tariff on Indonesia Stems from this: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% Australia cops 10%, New Zealand 15% Israel 15% Venezuela 15% Turkey

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tariff news is back in the headlines with Trump signing tariff-related executive orders on a wide range of coutnires, more in these posts: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% Trump has hammered Switzerland with a 39% tariff rate Officials at the White House are scrambling with clarifications, notably

It’s a groundhog sort of day, back to tariff news: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% Trump has hammered Switzerland with a 39% tariff rate More: all goods that are considered to have been transshipped to avoid applicable duties will be subject to an additional 40% tariff, while

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The latest tariff news here: Trump signed an order raising tariff rate on Canada to 35%, from 25% The 35% rate goes into effect in just a few hours time, when US Eastern time ticks over to August 1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan Jibun Manufacturing PMI, final reading comes in at a dour 48.9 vs. preliminary 48.8, previous 50.1 Japan’s factory activity contracted in July, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.9 from 50.1 in June, confirming a return to decline after briefly stabilising. The final reading was nearly unchanged from the flash estimate of

Some verbal intervention to support the yen from Kato here Won’t comment on forex levels Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Alarmed over FX moves, including those driven by speculators This is standard sort of stuff from Kato, remarks follow the sharp decline in the yen. Kato trying to provide some

Japan Preliminary June Industrial production come in improved from May, a welcome development. +4% y/y prior -2.4% +1.7% m/m expected -0.6%, prior -0.1% Still to come from Japan today: Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, July 31, 2025 – BoJ interest rate decision, China PMIs PREVIEW – BOJ likely to hold steady, market too hawkish on

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser CPI data were very welcome (ICYMI, CPI lower) Trimmed mean dead in line with our forecasts Full impact of tariffs is yet to come This will be a real tax increase in the US Our forecasts were based on rates falling gradually toward 3.2% Models of neutral

South Korea’s KOSPI stock index jumps 0.6+5% higher after US trade deal Hyundai motor +3% Earlier: Trump announces a trade deal with South Korea This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fireside chat with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser at the Barrenjoey Economic Forum, Sydney. Live link when it begins. Listening out for any hints of the August interest rate cut coming up from the Bank, yesterday’s CPI data seems to have locked in expectations: InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Earthquake rocks Pacific, Aus CPI, China fiscal

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan June Retail sales come in much better than expected, a welcome development. The Bank of Japan will remain on hold today is the expectations (see links below for previews). +1.0% m/m prior -0.2% +2.0% y/y expected +1.8%, prior +1.9% Still to come from Japan today: Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, July 31, 2025 –

Xinhua commentary on China-U.S. trade talks China is 100% sincere in the consultations Some deep-seated and structural problems in China-US economic and trade relations cannot be solved overnight China is willing to properly handle differences through dialogue and consultation and find a solution to tariff issue There appears to be some wobbles in the trade

15% Tariff Deal Avoids Higher Rate: The U.S. will implement a 15% tariff on South Korean imports, sidestepping a potential 25% tariff that would have come into effect on August 1 without an agreement. Comprehensive Trade Agreement Announced: Trump announced a “full and complete” trade agreement with South Korea in a statement on Truth Social.Post

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Made trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand Lutnick announcing in a Fox News interview. Countries getting in before the August 1 deadline. Earlier: Trump announces a trade deal with South Korea Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea earlier – recap ICYMI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

ANZ New Zealand business survey Business confidence 47.8% prior 46.3% Business activity 40.6% prior 40.9% ANZ comments: “It continues to be tough going for many firms. Most forward-looking activity indicators saw little movement this month.” “The past activity measures show a very wide range of experiences across different sectors, with agriculture storming ahead but construction

The US dollar is dribbling lower across the majors board in Asia morning terade. Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. Eyes are open for Australian inflation data due soon: Economic calendar in Asia 30 July 2025 – Australian official inflation data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

This post, and the thread that follows, from Matt Busigin is worth checking out. I’ve tried to summarise the findings, probably poorly. Perhaps the most compelling finding is that Phillips Curve residuals may serve as a recession early-warning system. Spikes in residual volatility often occur 12 to 18 months before a downturn. “The ‘broken’ model

Tohoku Elec. Says no tsunami impact to Onagawa nuclear plant Follows this: Another massive earthquake – magnitude 8.7, Russia east coast This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Magnitude 8.7 earthquake strikes Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia region 8.7 is the strongest seen anywhere since 2011 Tsunami warnings have been issued across the North Pacific 3 and 4 metre wave heights have been reported from the Russian coast This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tsunami warnings have been issued across much of Japan’s eastern coastline, with authorities urging residents in coastal, riverfront, and lakeside areas in several prefectures to evacuate to higher ground without delay. Re these: Another massive earthquake – magnitude 8.7, Russia east coast Tsunami alert after Mag 8 earthquake off east coast of Russia Also: Tsunami

Monetary Authority of Singapore leaves monetary policy on hold at its 30 July 2025 meeting: MAS will maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$neer policy band There will be no change to its width and the level at which it is centred More from the statement, in brief: For 2025 as a whole,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

I posted earlier on the tsunami alert in Hawaii. Alerts intensifying now. More: Tsunami waves reaching more than 3 metres above the tide level are possible along the coasts of Ecuador Russia Waves between 1-3 meters are possible along the coasts of Chile, Hawaii, Japan, Soloman Islands. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Re this: Active shooter in Manhattan, New York; police officer and civilian shot From NYPD: Due to police activity, please avoid the vicinity of East 52 Street between Park Avenue and Lexington Avenue. Expect emergency vehicles & delays in the surrounding area. Live feed here: Unconfirmed photo. These things are easy to fake, so treat

UK shop prices rose at their fastest pace since April 2024 in the year to July, driven by a sharp pickup in food inflation, according to the British Retail Consortium. Overall shop prices increased 0.7% year-on-year +0.2% expected. prior +0.4% food prices surged 4.0%, the strongest since February Rising costs for essentials like meat and

Trump has cut his previously announced 50-day deadline for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, now giving Moscow just “10 or 12 days” to reach an agreement. Speaking at a press conference in Scotland alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday, Trump said there’s no point in further delays and expressed frustration over the lack of

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its bullish outlook for U.S. equities, forecasting the S&P 500 will climb to 7,200 within the next year, a roughly 12% gain from recent levels. The bank’s call is underpinned by what it describes as a “rolling recovery” in corporate earnings, marking a shift from the rolling earnings recession that began

In Hong Kong there are three levels of rain warnings: Amber, Red, and Black. The Amber alert signals the possibility of heavy rain that could intensify into more severe Red or Black conditions. During this stage, flooding may occur in low-lying or poorly drained areas, and key government agencies along with transport and utility services

Morgan Stanley raises its S&P 500 target to 7200, expecting that target by the middle of 2026. We had a year end target posted earlier: ICYMI – Oppenheimer lifts S&P 500 year-end target to 7,100 Like in that post, Morgan Stanley also cit: strong corporate earnings trade deals strong U.S. economy wider macro factors Morgan

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

While not directly related to financial markets, some disturbing ews out of the US:’ Active shooter with an assault rifle 345 Park Avenue near East 52 Street NYPD officer and a civilian among those shot suspect reportedly wearing a bullet-proof vest If oyu are in the area, steer clear and saty safe. This article was

Singapore’s central bank is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged this week, taking a cautious stance amid uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs. According to a Bloomberg survey (gated), 14 of 19 economists predict the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will maintain its current settings, while a minority, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Bloomberg (gated) have a piece up: Hedging by Australia’s Pension Funds Set to Boost Local Dollar Bloomberg is gated, but in brief it discusses how t e Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to continue rising, supported by increased currency hedging activity from major Australian pension funds. These funds, with significant exposure to offshore assets, play

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

EUR/USD jumped a little higher on the weekend news of a EU/US trade tariff framework deal and has since trcked more less sideways in a small sort of range. Equities liked the news also: US equity index futures jump higher to open the new week’s trade – EU/US trade deal EUR/USD update: Earlier: Monday open

ES and NQ, and others, futures are open for trade on Globex to begin the new week: ES +0.4% NQ + 0.6% (those numbers will have changed by the time I hit publish, and continue to change as the session unfolds, but you get the idea). A US official released some remarks timed to coincide

Samsung Electronics announced on Monday that it has secured a $16.5 billion contract to provide semiconductors to a major global company. Info via Reuters. More: for contract chip manufacturing details won’t be disclosed until end 2033 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Senior administration official: Aircraft investigation is still in works, will wait for completion of that, tariff will be zero for now It is likely that aircraft won’t face tariffs, but have to wait for probe to end More: Steel tariff remains at 50% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK Prime Minister Starmer will meet US President Trump on Monday central to the meeting will be efforts to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza. also under discussion will be efforts to remove the remaining obstacles to their trade ‘framework’ The trade framework was announced back in May. It was announced again in June. A deal

Bloomberg reports on the main influences trapping oil prices. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: Oil traders grappling with tension between warnings of a weakening market and strong current prices near $70 a barrel. The International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration expect a surplus of oil next year, with the IEA projecting

Emergency crews and the Bomb Squad are actively investigating a suspicious package near the White House multiple street closures in the area Authorities urging the public to avoid the vicinity This is an old pic, probably unrelated 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Chinese markets are reopening today after the holiday Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain

Ever opened a news site or scrolled through social media, only to find the markets “crashing,” “surging,” or “on the brink of collapse”? Every day, traders are hit with a tidal wave of headlines, expert opinions, breaking alerts, and hot takes. It can all feel urgent, emotional, and important. If you’re not careful, it can completely hijack

The major European indices are closing mixed to end the trading week. For the week, the indices are closing mostly higher the German DAX the one exception. France’s CAC was near unchanged but higher For the trading day: German DAX -0.32% France’s CAC +0.21% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.20% Spain’s Ibex -0.13% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.31%

Oil rig count -7 at 415 Gas +5 at 122 Total rig -2 at 542 The price of crude oil is trading down $-0.61 at $65.42. For the trading week, the price tested its 100-day moving average, currently at $64.91. The low price for the week $64.76 on Wednesday, but it could not sustain momentum

Crude oil futures settled at $65.16, down $0.87 on the day. Earlier this week, the price briefly broke below the falling 100-day moving average (blue line on the chart), but each time, downside momentum faded and daily closes returned above that level—indicating a lack of sustained bearish conviction. Heading into the new trading week, sellers

EU von der Leyen is speaking and says that after a good call with Pres. Trump, that they: Will meet with Trump in Scotland on Sunday Will discuss transatlantic trade relations and how we can keep them strong. HMMM is that not great a comment? Am I reading too much into the “how we can

Pres. Trump is reiterating comments from earlier in the day as he crosses the Atlantic for his weekend visit in the UK: We will see if we can make a deal with EU on Sunday Will be meeting with a lot of people including EU leader . We have a good 50-50 chance of EU

Tesla not allowed to test or transport the public, paid or unpaid, in an autonomous vehicle with or without a driver…Shares dip to $312.70. High reached $323.63 today. The price is still above the lower for the day at $308 and still higher on the day, but price is dipping. Taking a look at the

The USDCHF started the week strong, with Monday’s high stalling near a key swing area between 0.8017 and 0.8023. However, after breaking below the 200-hour moving average (Green line on the chart above) later that day, the pair remained under that level for the rest of the week. That MA, currently at 0.79836, remains a

The broader indices closed higher with the S&P and NASDAQ at record closing levels once again. The Dow industrial average is within 113 points after getting within four points earlier this week before rotating lower. All three major indices closed higher for the week. A snapshot of the closing levels: Dow industrial average up 208.01

Next week will be the biggest week for news and earnings for this quarter. In addition to the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM on Wedneday followed by the Fed Chair press conference, the US employment data will be released on Friday at 8:30 AM. Also scheduled for release: Tuesday: Australia CPI (9:30 PM ET

US stock indices close higher with the S&P and NASDAQ indices at new records again Trump: We will see if we can make deal with EU on Sunday. Crude oil settles at $65.16 It will be a tidal wave of earnings and economic data next week. Baker Hughes oil rig count -7 at 415 EUs

Japan inflation data for July 2025, Tokyo area. This leads the national figures by around 3 weeks and is seen as a guide to what the national levels will be. Tokyo CPI 2.9% y/y expected 3.0%, prior 3.1% CPI excluding-Fresh Food 2.9% (core CPI) expected 3.0%, prior 3.1% Ex-Fresh Food, Energy 3.1% (core-core CPI, this

Trump: “After many years Australia has agreed to accept American Beef! For a long time, and even though we are great friends, they actually banned our Beef. Now, we are going to sell so much to Australia” This news was out, here in Australia at least, earlier this week. Trump announcing it now on his

UK consumer confidence edged lower in July, with GfK’s index falling to -19 from June’s -18, reflecting growing caution among households. The dip, though modest, suggests rising anxiety ahead of potential tax hikes in the upcoming autumn budget. The reading was slightly better than economists’ forecast of -20. GfK’s Neil Bellamy noted the data indicates

Info comes via Bloomberg (gated), in brief: Healthcare Triangle the most actively-traded name on US exchanges on Thursday little-known healthcare information technology company stock price more than double to just above five cents over 3 billion shares changing hands, about 15% of the total shares traded on US exchanges for the day The total value

Japan’s June Services PPI +3.2% y/y expected +3.2% prior 3.3% Earlier from Japan, headline and both core inflation measures remained well above target in Tokyo in July: Tokyo headline July CPI 2.9% (vs. 3% expected) The CSPI comes from the Bank of Japan. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As reported earlier, core inflation in Tokyo—a key leading indicator for nationwide price trends—remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in July, reinforcing expectations that the BOJ may hike rates again later this year or into 2026. Core CPI (excludes fresh food) rose 2.9% y/y in July, just shy of the 3.0% forecast

The Swiss franc may trade sideways in the near term as markets await clarity on trade relations between the U.S. and Switzerland, according to a note from Commerzbank. Unlike other nations, Switzerland has not yet received a formal tariff warning from President Trump ahead of his planned August 1 tariff rollout. This has provided temporary

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Uncertainty over the future of Federal Reserve leadership is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, according to a note from Bank of America. The bank says concerns around the Fed’s direction have “arguably impacted the USD more than other assets so far,” preventing the currency from sustaining a rally. With speculation mounting over whether Chair

Morgan Stanley says corporate investment in artificial intelligence is beginning to pay off, with early adopters now pulling ahead in terms of earnings performance and market returns. In its latest AI Adopter Survey, the bank found that AI integration is accelerating across key sectors — particularly financials, real estate, and consumer durables. The shift is

Cboe Global Markets announced on Wednesday that it will exit its Japanese equities operations, which includes both the Cboe Japan proprietary trading system and the Cboe BIDS Japan block trading platform. The company plans to halt operations on August 29, 2025, pending discussions with regulatory authorities before finalising the closure. The move comes as shifting

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: New Fed Chairman nominee is likely to be announced in December or January I posted earlier on the week that Bessent was trying to soothe Trump and have him relent on firing Powell: Bessent urges Trump not to fire Fed Chair Powell in private pitch to keep stability Trump read that,

The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting today, Thursday, July 24, 2025. statement due at 1215 GMT/ 1815 US Eastern time European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak a half hour later The ECB is seen pausing after a year-long string of cuts as it monitors the uncertain

AMD CEO Lisa Su has acknowledged that semiconductor chips produced at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)’s upcoming facilities in Arizona will come at a significant cost premium. In an interview with Bloomberg’s Ed Ludlow in Washington, Su said the chips are expected to be 5% to 20% more expensive compared to similar components made in

Japan Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (July) 48.8, falling back into contraction Expected 50.2, Previous: 50.1 Services 53.5 Previous: 51.7 Composite 51.5 Previous 51.5 Japan’s manufacturing activity fell back into contraction in July dragged down by rising uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and fresh tariffs Output and new orders both declined Japan’s services sector continued to outperform

The USD is broadkly lower, just a touch, here in Asia morning trade. AUD is a beneficiary, but not the only one. EUR, NZD, GBP … all higher for the morning. AUD data just out, PMIs moving further into expansion: Australia preliminary July 2025 manufacturing PMI 51.6 (prior 50.6) This article was written by Eamonn

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

South Korea says trade talks with US cancelled, scheduling issue South Korea says 2+2 trade talks with the U.S. have been cancelled. The talks were cancelled due to the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s schedule. The U.S. has proposed holding another round of talks in the near future. South Korea and the U.S. will set a new

Australia S&P Global July flash services PMI at 53.8 (vs 51.8 in June) Australia S&P Global July flash manufacturing PMI at 51.6 (vs 50.6 in June) Composite 53.6 (prior 51.6) All three moving further into expansion, solid results indeed. And you lot want a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut? 😉 ps, Reserve Bank of

Goldman Sachs is maintaining its bullish forecast for U.S. natural gas prices, reiterating a $4.50/mmBtu target for Summer 2026 Henry Hub. The bank noted that risks to its outlook are tilted to the upside, particularly if there are delays in producer investment. Looking ahead, Goldman continues to expect that a pickup in drilling activity will

Markets have been disappointed over and over again by the misleading announcements from Trump. There is wariness over this latest: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with Japan Trump says hes not lying this time, Japan deal is a ‘lot different’ from deals in the past Its more reassuring to get this from

Japanese stocks are rising strongly, the N225 is +2.4%, on the talk of the deal. The yen is choppy and since the US close is barely net changed. JGB yields have risen. What we have so far is a tweet from Trump, and some media commtns: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with

Hirofumi Suzuki, Chief Currency Strategist at SMBC in Tokyo, says the trade news is encouraging for Japan’s economy , but not sufficient to shift the Bank of Japan’s policy stance. “This is good news for the Japanese economy. However, it alone will not prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates,” he said. Suzuki

This tweet from PIMCO raises more questions than it answers, especially for runaway spening in the US: The more I reread this, the more I think its possible to simply substitute ‘US’ for ‘Brazil’. US government spending is already epically unsustainable, Trump’s recent spending increases and tax cuts for the wealthy make it even more.

Trump says it’s the largest deal in history: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with Japan He is seeking to reassure us that it is a deal, and not baloney like all previous announcements have been : says just signed the largest trade deal in history with Japan says great deal for everybody

By all means trade this ‘news’, just be wary of the divergence between Trump’s ‘deal’ announcements and realtiy that we have see time and again: Trump reckons he has completed a ‘massive deal’ with Japan Nikkei futures are up, as are US equity futures. Yen gained but is already lower than where it was prior

Japan and US agreed to 15% auto tariff according to NHK, citing Japan govt official. NHK is Japan’s public broadcaster. Meanwhile, Japan’s PM Ishiba: Decline to comment on negotiation details Can’t say until I scrutinise outcome of trade deal with U.S., when asked how deal could affect his decision on whether to step down as

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Westpac says its Leading Index continues to show stalling momentum. Comments from analysts at the bank: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.03% in June from 0.11% in May. Main

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, projecting three consecutive 25bp reductions—one at each meeting through year-end— provided inflation expectations stay anchored. September 16-17 October 28-29 December 9-10 The bank emphasises that the easing cycle is contingent on inflation not flaring up again, but with current trends holding, it

Stellantis said Monday that Trump’s tariffs have cost the company nearly $350 million in the first half of 2025, citing direct payments and lost production. Total losses for the period could reach $2.7 billion, according to preliminary data, driven by tariff-related expenses, efforts to boost profitability, and compliance with new fuel emissions rules following Trump’s

Trump ‘tweeting’ on his app: Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on the Iran Nuclear Sites: “Damages are very severe, they are destroyed.” Of course they are, just like I said, and we will do it again, if necessary! As interviewed by Bret Baier. Fake News CNN should immediately fire their phony “reporter” and apologize to

U.S. Treasury’s Bessent says deeper reforms of banking regulatory structure are needed-remarks at Federal Reserve conference U.S. bank regulators should consider abandoning ‘flawed’ dual capital requirements for banks Outdated capital requirements are misaligned with actual risk, impose unnecessary burdens Community banks could be allowed to opt in to modernized capital regime, reducing capital requirements Bank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks before hybrid “Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks” Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve 1230 GMT/0830 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman hosts fireside chat to discuss effects of artificial intelligence on banks, businesses, and consumers and how we

New Zealand trade data for June 2025 Exports $NZD 6.63bn, prior 7.50bn Imports 6.49bn, prior 6.42bn Trade Balance 12 month YTD -4366mn NZD, prior -3931mn NZD/USD little changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia will finally gain a complete monthly insight into inflation from November 26, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) begins publishing a fully-formed monthly CPI report, bringing the country in line with nearly all OECD nations. This marks the beginning of a phased wind-down of the quarterly CPI, which has guided the Reserve Bank

The Japanese yen gapped higher in early Monday trade as results came in from Japan’s Upper House election. Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition suffered a major blow, losing its majority in the upper chamber — having already lost control of the lower house in October. With minority government in both chambers now, Japan looks set

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate. CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range. A significantly stronger or weaker rate

UK consumer confidence fell sharply in Q2, marking its first meaningful drop since late 2022. Deloitte’s index fell 2.6 points to 10.4%, the lowest reading since early 2024, driven by job security fears. Persistent inflation, high living costs, and concerns over income growth weighed heavily on sentiment. Despite gloom among consumers, Deloitte noted resilience in

Be careful of what you hear from Trump’s social media app, I am wondering if his account has been hacked? This is one of many strange ‘tweets’ he is posting: It’s a video that I haven’t uploaded here. — Trump’s social media is often the source of major market-moving posts, hence the question if its

New Zealand inflation data for Q2 2025 a little lower than expected more to come 0.5% q/q expected 0.6%, prior 0.9% 2.7% y/y expected 2.8%, prior 2.5% CPI tradeables 0.3% q/q expected 0.5%, prior 0.8% CPI Non tradeables 0.7% q/q expected 0.7%, prior 1.1% Both the kiwi $ and NZ yields have dropped on this

People’s Bank of China rate setting: 5-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.50% vs 3.50% expected and 3.50% last month also 1-year at 3% vs. 3% expected and 3% last month too In 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) implemented significant reforms to its monetary policy framework to enhance the effectiveness of its policy transmission

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China has quietly issued its first rare earth mining and smelting quotas for 2025 without the usual public announcement, according to sources familiar with the matter — a move seen as part of Beijing’s efforts to tighten control over the strategically vital sector. The rare earth quota system is a key tool used by China,

The Singapore dollar is under renewed pressure as U.S. trade tensions escalate and expectations grow that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may ease its exchange-rate policy to support the economy. SGD has been weakening alongside a rebounding U.S. dollar and now faces fresh risks from potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — two

The UK government has announced that the first wave of self-driving taxis, private hire vehicles, and bus-like services will be permitted on public roads from spring 2026. This move is part of the country’s broader strategy to position itself as a global leader in autonomous vehicle technology, following the recent passage of the Automated Vehicles

Asking prices for newly listed UK homes fell 1.2% in July, the sharpest drop for that month in over 20 years. Sellers are pricing more competitively amid high inventory levels and increased buyer sensitivity to overpricing. Rightmove cut its 2025 price growth forecast to 2% from 4%, despite sales running 5% above 2024 levels. Falling

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Sun: Japanese Upper House Election Mon: PBoC LPR; Canadian PPI (Jun), US Leading Index (Jun), New Zealand Trade (Jun), UK CBI (Jul) Tue: UK PSNB (Jun), US Richmond Fed (Jul) Wed: EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul) Thu: ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements; EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Jul), US Weekly Claims, National Activity Index

Is the dollar let out of the dog house just yet? Well, not exactly. The latest recovery in the greenback in the past two weeks comes as Trump is threatening tariffs once again. It’s a more moderate version of Liberation Day one might say, with TACO trades seemingly fully priced in before this. So, what’s

NASDAQ closes the day higher and closes at record levels each day this week What key events the releases are scheduled for next week’s trading? California Gov. Newson proposes to ease permits for oil drilling in California Fed’s Goolsbee: Need some resolution on tariffs ot understand impact on inflation Trump signs GENIUS Act (Guiding and

The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) is the first comprehensive federal law to regulate U.S. dollar–backed stablecoins. It outlines clear rules for who can issue stablecoins, how they must be backed, and what compliance standards they must meet. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable

After the Financial Times reported that Pres. Trump is pushing for a 15 – 20% tariff on all the EU goods and looks to keep 25% tariff on autos, the US stocks have tilted to the downside. Dow industrial average -0.55% S&P index -0.18% NASDAQ index 0.16% Russell 2000-0.64% Both the S&P and the NASDAQ

Fed’s Goolsbee is getting another word in before the quiet period: New Round of tariffs to apply to parts, copper, and revisiting Europe, Canada tariffs doesn’t help Need some resolution on tariffs to understand impact on inflation.. Drip Drip announcements on tariffs means can’t make the argument tariffs mean a one-time increase in price level.

The earnings season heats up a little more next week. The bigger names, like Amazon, Apple, Meta or still a week or so away but Tesla and Alphabet will highlight some of the releases next week. Below is a list of the key earnings: Monday 7/21 – Before Open: Verizon (VZ), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Monday 7/21 – After Close: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Tuesday 7/22 – Before Open: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Coca‑Cola (KO),

Next week, the Fed will be in the quiet period ahead of the FOMC rate meeting on July 30. The S&P Global flash manufacturing and services data will be released for Europe and the US on Thursday. The ECB will likely keep rates unchanged, but given the tariff threat, will likely be biased to more

California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposes to ease permits for oil drilling in California. Governor Gavin Newsom has not supported new drilling, but is also under pressure to stabilize energy supplies, particularly after recent refinery closure announcements. While he remains committed to phasing out oil drilling by 2045, state regulators have recommended limited new well permitting

Oil rigs -2 to 422 Gas rigs +9 to 117 Total rigs +7 at 544 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is closing the day higher and has closed at record levels each day of this week. The gain however, was marginal with a rise of only 0.05%. Nevertheless, it was good enough for a record. The NASDAQ has closed at a record level 11 different times this year. The index rose 11.39

That is an absolutely staggering number if you think about it. And as the world continues to embrace the AI-driven future, Nvidia is now the poster boy not only for that revolution but also for the stock market. After its struggles in the first four months this year in the run up to Trump’s Liberation

The Wall Street Journal have a piece up on the data from Japan earleir. Data is here: Japan June 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, still The Journal is gated, but in brief: Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed to 3.3% year-over-year in June, down from 3.7% in May and in

The Wall Street Journal has published an article that is not going to make the White House happy. From the article (gated): The letter bearing Trump’s name, which was reviewed by the Journal, is bawdy—like others in the album. It contains several lines of typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, which

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speech. Waller signalled support for a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming July meeting, citing increased downside risks to the economy and growing signs of labour market weakness. He warned against waiting for a sharper deterioration in employment before acting, arguing that delaying could require more aggressive policy moves later.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller Q&A Lots of uncertainty around long-term Fed funds rate; 3% seems right Long-term bond yields don’t suggest loose financial conditions No one from the Trump administration has talked to him about taking the Fed chair Cut rates in July and then adjust policy meeting by meeting Stablecoins introduce competition into

All three of the main inflation measures in Japan remain well above the 2% Bank of Japan target rate Headline CPI 3.3% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.5% Core CPI (this is excluding fresh food) 3.3% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.7% analysts are attributing the drop from May on temporary cuts in utility bills and the

Japan holds upper house elections on Sunday, July 20, in a key mid-term test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling LDP–Komeito coalition. The vote will decide 124 of 248 seats and follows last year’s lower house setback for the government. Recent polling suggests the LDP may lose its upper house majority, adding political instability to

Canada’s international trade minister says they are working to get officials talking to their Chinese counterparts as soon as possible to address trade challenges Says the agreement to bring back the Indian high commissioner will be an important step for dialogue and supporting trade as it grows Says there is appetite from both sides to

The U.S. House of Representatives approved three major cryptocurrency bills on Thursday, signaling a significant step forward for the digital asset sector. The GENIUS Act, which sets rules for stablecoins, passed with a 308-122 vote and now goes to President Trump. The CLARITY Act, aimed at defining the broader structure of crypto markets, passed 294-134

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan June 2025 trade data Imports +0.2% year/year expected -1.6%, prior -7.7% Exports -0.5% year/year expected +0.5%, prior -1.7% exports drop for the second month in a row Trade balance +153.1 bln yen expected 353.9bn yen, prior -638.6bn yen Exports To U.S. -11.4% year/year To China -4.7% year/year To Asia +1.7% year/year To EU +3.6%

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump spoke in an interview following his disruptive statements on Wednesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul:The near firing/unfiring of Powell unsettle markets Trump said he would love for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign but that it would disrupt the markets if the president were to remove him. Trump made the comments

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on Wednesday reaffirmed the importance of central bank independence and the enduring role of the U.S. dollar, while declining to comment on President Trump’s recent criticisms of the Fed. Speaking to reporters, Williams sidestepped questions about reports suggesting President Trump was considering firing Fed Chair Jerome

Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard has withdrawn its $47 billion takeover bid for Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, citing delays and a lack of constructive engagement. The move ends a year-long effort to acquire the 7-Eleven parent and highlights broader questions about Japan’s openness to foreign takeovers. Couche-Tard had raised its offer multiple times and proposed

Wall Street Journal reporting (gated). In brief: Some Trump administration officials are delaying a major deal that would allow the United Arab Emirates to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of advanced AI chips from Nvidia, citing national security concerns. Although Trump backed the agreement during his May visit to the Middle East and both sides

UBS have raised their euro forecasts: EUR/USD projected to $1.23 by June 2026 (previous forecast for June ’26 was 1.2) $1.21 at the end of 2025 (with previous forecast 1.16) Citing the euro will be the key alternative for global investors seeking to diversify away from the U.S. dollar: euro stands out as the ‘default’

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on what he believes is a reasonable estimate of the neutral rate of interest. Seems very low … More: Neutral rate levels haven’t really changed much in a while Acknowledges economists see slower growth outlook relative to traders, investors and markets Financial conditions are pretty supportive

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams keynote speech before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series. Q&A now. Inflation has moderated unevenly, in part due to housing-related factors. Without tariffs, inflation would be closing in on 2%. It’s not surprising that tariff impacts have been growing. Not surprised

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports jumped 13.0% year-on-year in June, far exceeding the 5.0% rise forecast in a Reuters poll follows a 3.9% decline in May Over the first half of 2025, non-oil exports rose 5.2% year-on-year. Driven by strong gains in shipments of PCs (+53.8%), integrated circuits (+17.5%), and non-monetary gold (+211.9%). Exports rose to

US starts Section 301 tariff probe on Brazil’s trade practices: due to its “continued attacks on the Digital Trade activities of American Companies”. Last week Trump announced a 50% tariff rate for Brazil. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: A lot of uncertainty about tariff pass-through to consumers Many companies want to wait and see how tariffs are settled before they pass on higher prices to consumers We’ll be looking at the data in summer, into fall before we have a good read Fed builds its credibility by explaining

Ethereum has risen to a more than five-month high above $3,138. Ethereum’s price gains are being driven by a powerful mix of regulatory clarity, institutional interest, technical progress, and its expanding role in stablecoins and DeFi. More: Stablecoin growth & regulation tailwinds: Ethereum provides the infrastructure for nearly half of all stablecoins. The GENIUS Act

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remarks at a World Affairs Council event in San Antonio. Base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation down Want to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced June CPI data suggests PCE inflation, which the Fed targets at 2%,

10-year US Treasury yield rises to a one-month high of 4.495% — I posted earlier on the worries facing Asia traders as they filter in to the office: Asian markets will wake up to a troubling picture on Wednesday – risks all over the place Higher US yields on of them. Not showing that 4.495

China foreign minister: SCO Tianjin summit to be held from August 31 to September 1 Leaders of more than 20 countries and heads of 10 international organizations expected to attend summit — China is hosting the 25th SCO Heads-of-State Summit this autumn (late August to June 25–26) in Tianjin as part of its 2024–2025 chairmanship.

China commerce ministry: China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation and review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says Powell renovations ‘sort of is’ a fireable offense. Earlier: Trump: Bessent an option to replace Fed chair but I like the job he’s doing at Treasury This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump posts on his social media app that he has secured the necessary votes. The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) is a bipartisan 2025 bill that would create the first federal regulatory framework for U.S.-dollar–pegged stablecoins—mandating strict reserve backing, regular audits, and clear oversight to protect consumers and stabilize

USD/JPY is sitting just shy of 147.90 as I post. Recent highs are arojund here from late June, and mid-May before that. I am wondering when the Bank of Japan and Japanese government will begin to worry about the yen weakness nough to try verybal intervention? 150 is a big round number, probably just before

Australia July Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence 93.1 up from June’s 92.6 WPAC comments, in summary: optimism remained muted after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly held interest rates steady at 3.85% sentiment was stronger before the RBA decision but dipped afterward, reflecting lingering caution views on family finances improved longer-term economic confidence softened willingness to make major

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi has escalated his warning on the U.S. housing market, shifting from a “yellow flare” to a “red flare” as conditions continue to deteriorate under the weight of high mortgage rates. In a series of posts on social media platform Twitter, Zandi outlined how persistently elevated mortgage rates—hovering near 7%—are exerting

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan and the European Union plan to issue a joint statement aimed at deepening their economic partnership, with a particular focus on trade, advanced technology, and greater supply chain coordination, the Yomiuri newspaper reported. The move comes as both sides seek to enhance economic resilience amid rising global geopolitical tensions and disruptions. This article was

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has asked the central bank’s inspector general to conduct a fresh review of the Fed’s building renovation project, according to a letter sent to Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, Politico reported Monday. Powell said the inspector general already has full access to the project’s details and

UBS Wealth Management on the latest tariffs threat from Trump: Sees White House tariff escalation as a negotiation tactic; expects eventual de-escalation. Base case: U.S. effective tariff rate to settle near 15%, allowing S&P 500 to keep rising. Believes a U.S.-EU trade deal is likely before August 1, or the deadline will be extended. Acknowledges

Japanese government bond (JGB) investors are on edge ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections, fearing a political shake-up that could accelerate fiscal spending and drive super-long bond yields higher. Reuters with the piece, in brief: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s declining approval ratings have cast doubt on his coalition’s ability to retain a majority. A

UK retail sales rose sharply in June, driven by warmer weather and seasonal demand, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC): Total sales climbed 3.1% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in May while like-for-like sales rose 2.7% (+0.6% in May). The BRC credited the heatwave and events like Wimbledon for boosting demand for fans, summer clothing,

In Summary from the Wall Street Journal (gated): The European Union has completed a second list of potential counter-tariffs on U.S. goods valued at €72 billion (US$84 billion), amid rising trade tensions. The list, drafted by the European Commission, targets items such as Boeing aircraft, cars, bourbon, machinery, chemicals, plastics, medical devices, and various agricultural

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales June 2025. Card Spending Retail: +0.5% m/m prior –0.1% -0.4% y/y prior -0.1% Card Spending Total: -0.2% m/m prior +0.3% The electronic cards data covers about 68 percent of core retail sales in the country, and is the main measure of monthly retail activity. This article was written by

US futures have begun trading on Globex for the new week. The big weekend news was Trump’s tariffs: Trump hits the European Union (EU) with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1 Since then: Germanys Merz will work closely with Macron, von der Leyen to resolve trade ahead of Aug 1 EU extends pause on

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Via Reuters on Invesco Report: Key Trends Among Sovereign Wealth Funds and Central Banks. I trimmed it back to the main info. Active Management Rising: Large sovereign wealth funds are shifting from passive to active strategies due to market unpredictability. China Exposure Growing: Nearly 60% of wealth funds plan to boost investments in China over

Japan data, Core Machinery Orders for May 2025 +4.4% y/y expected +3.4%, prior +6.6% -0.6% m/m expected -1.4%, prior -9.1% These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.