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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, […]

Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned that tariffs could carry modest inflationary effects and add pressure to the U.S. economy. Speaking on the broader implications of trade policy, Dimon said the impact of tariffs is unlikely to be limited to a one-off price shock. Instead, he argued, the costs are more likely

We had the unconfirmed reports of an appointment coming up of new Governor of the RBNZ: New Zealand to announce the new RBNZ governor as soon as Wednesday See that post for details, and gender reveal! New Zealand Finance minister Willis will make the announcement at 1pm New Zealand time on Wednesday, September 24, 2025:

China’s securities regulator has informally told some domestic brokerages to pause real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation businesses in Hong Kong, sources told Reuters. The move highlights Beijing’s caution over a rush into digital asset markets offshore, even as Hong Kong promotes itself as a hub for tokenised products, stablecoins, and virtual asset trading. RWA tokenisation converts

A recent global survey from Revalize shows that a growing number of manufacturers are exiting the U.S. market amid tariff pressures, economic unpredictability, and rising compliance costs. Roughly one in five international manufacturers have withdrawn operations or scaled back presence in the U.S. over the past year, putting America among the top three countries from

U.S. stocks began the week on a firm footing, but Citadel Securities is warning investors not to overlook a seasonal rough patch for equities. Scott Rubner, Citadel’s head of equity and equity derivatives strategy, wrote in a recent note that the 39th trading week of the year — which began Monday — has historically been

Nomura Asset Management struck a cautiously optimistic tone on Japan’s stock market for the rest of 2025, telling reporters in London that attractive valuations support its outlook into 2026. The firm pointed to ongoing corporate governance reforms as a key driver of long-term opportunity, adding that further improvements remain possible. Executives also welcomed last month’s

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, speaking at Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership (STEP) at 1430 Eastern time / 1830 GMT Last week the BoC trimmed rates by 25bp: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: There was a clear consensus to cut by 25 basis points This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese PM contender and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: BOJ is conducting monetary policy in way that does not deviate much from Govt thinking Japan’s past aversion to strong yen has diminished, when asked about risk Fed rate cut prospects could push up yen vs dollar, hurt Japan’s export-reliant economy Weak yen, coupled with rising oil

Goldman Sachs Asset Management said it does not expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates again this year, citing persistent inflation and signs of resilience in the labour market. The firm noted that, while headline price pressures have eased, underlying inflation remains sticky enough to keep policymakers cautious. In addition, evidence that the

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking from the Australian parliament Earlier: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock says tightness remains in labour market More: In a very good position on inflation Risks on both sides for inflation Will still rely very heavily on the quarterly Australian CPI report Seeing private demand respond, very

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock Recent interest rate cuts are expected to support spending by households and businesses. Labour market conditions are close to full employment. Recovery in household consumption growth is forecast to be sustained as real incomes continue to grow. Since the August meeting, domestic data have been broadly in line with

The Bank of Japan has outlined a plan to gradually reduce its massive ¥75 trillion ($507 billion) holdings of exchange-traded funds, a longstanding overhang for local equities. While markets initially sold off on the announcement, the scale and pace of the sell-down — roughly ¥620 billion a year, spread across a century — reassured investors,

People’s Bank of China injects 300bn yuan through 14-day reverse repos. On Friday the Bank announced it’d be shifting the 14-dayers to: fixed amounts rate bidding timing and scale to respond to liquidity needs And, indeed, the PBOC says today’s 14-day reverse repo operation was conducted through fixed-volume, interest-rate bidding with multiple-price allocation. A 14-day

People’s Bank of China sets its 1 and 5 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) rates unchanged. The PBOC uses the reverse reop rate as its main policy rate now. Currently 1.4%. Most lending in China is tied to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing. Both rates were last trimmed by 10

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UBS Group strategists have lifted their dollar-yen forecasts, now seeing USD/JPY at 143 by the end of 2025 and 140 by the end of 2026, compared with 130 previously. The revision reflects rising political uncertainty in Japan, which UBS says has helped keep the Bank of Japan more dovish than markets once expected. While investors

Mon: PBoC LPR, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Sep) Tue: Riksbank Announcement, EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Sep) Wed: CNB Announcement, Australian CPI (Aug), German Ifo Survey (Sep) Thu: SNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement, BoJ Minutes, PBoC MLF, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Oct), US Durable Goods (Aug), US GDP (Q2), US PCE (Q2) Fri: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Sep), US

Yannis Stournaras is the Governor of the Bank of Greece and thus a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council (monetary policy setting committee). Speaking in Copenhagen, Stournaras said the ECB is probably done cutting interest rates, unless there is a meaningful deterioration in inflation or growth. Stournaras explained that while inflation is forecast

It was another big day and week of gains for US equity markets as they continue to post a strong September. S&P 500 +0.5% Nasdaq Comp +0.7% DJIA +0.4% Russell 2000 -0.7% Toronto TSX Comp +1.0% On the week: S&P 500 +1.2% Nasdaq Comp+2.2% Russell 2000 +2.2% Toronto TSX Comp +1.6% This article was written

The dip was bought again. The S&P 500 is trading up 28 points, or 0.4%, to 6660, which is a new record high and also 10x from the financial crisis low. I have clear memories of that time and it’s amazing that the market has climbed ten fold since then. There isn’t much standing in

Gold is at the highs of the day, up $38 to $3681 which nearly brings it back to where it was trading minutes before the FOMC decision. It’s also just $20 from the all-time high. This week was a test for gold as it was hit by a somewhat hawkish Fed and higher Treasury yields.

The The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q3 is now 2.10%, which is fractionally higher than 2.08% last week. The Philly and Empire Fed surveys essentially cancelled each other out while the retail sales numbers added a slight lift. The advance reading on Q3 isn’t due until Oct 30 so there is much data

The latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors is something of a red flag for equity markets. Sentiment in the survey jumped to jumped to 41.7% from 28.0%. That’s the biggest one-week surge since January and also the highest reading since the July 3rd peak at 45.0%, which was the high of the

Canada’s Trade Mininister Dominic LeBlanc said expects to go to Washington, DC for trade talks in the next two weeks. That comment helped to lift the Canadian dollar in today’s North American session. USD/CAD is down 23 pips to 1.3768 and that has the loonies as the top performing G10 currency today. In the past

Oil rigs up 2 Natural gas rigs up 1 I guess $62 oil isn’t enough to stop the drilling. Word is that Exxon is the only company really spending this year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Jobs market has softened quite a bit of the last year Daly is speaking on AI implications for the workforce. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Adding a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas would have big consequences across immigration, labor markets, and business strategy. Smaller employers would almost entirely stop filing along with outsourcing firms. Even large tech companies could sharply reduce numbers, using visas only for extremely scarce roles. This type of visa is a work permit that allows employers

SEC to propose rule change to end quarterly earnings reports Canada July retail sales -0.8% vs versus 1.5% expected Fed’s Kashkari: Becoming more confidence that tariff impact on inflation will be temporary Fed’s Daly: Rate cut was to try to support the labor market Fed’s Miran: Falling home prices will drive disinflation Baker Hughes US

Shanghai Securities News wrote that the Fed’s rate cut reduces the dollar’s dominance and reshapes global flows—a backdrop that gives Beijing more flexibility on policy. Analysts say that could include scope for rate or RRR adjustments, though the PBoC is likely to time any move carefully. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Trump’s administration is considering a sweeping program to boost U.S. manufacturing, according to documents and people familiar with the talks says a Wall Street Journal report (gated). The plan would tap a $550 billion fund created during trade negotiations with Japan to invest in sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, energy, shipbuilding, and

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China’s yuan poses a greater challenge for Europe than for the U.S., noting the currency has weakened sharply against the euro while holding relatively firm against the dollar. Speaking in Madrid after trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, Bessent said U.S. tariffs have cut America’s trade deficit

Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed to 2.7% y/y in August, matching forecasts and easing from 3.1% in July, though still above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. An index that strips out both fresh food and fuel — closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation — rose 3.3% y/y, down slightly from 3.4% in

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Bitcoin $1 million? Coin Telegraph asks the question. I’ve summarized: Bitcoin has hit record highs few expected. Key drivers include the launch of spot ETFs in 2024, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust attracting $1.3bn in two days, and U.S. President Trump’s March 2025 order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve of 200,000 BTC. Optimism peaked at

Japan CPI data for August 2025: National CPI ex. fresh food & energy (core-core): 3.3% y/y (expected 3.3%, prior 3.4%) … this strips away the effect of fresh food and energy — National CPI ex. fresh food (core): 2.7% y/y (expected 2.7%, prior 3.1%) … core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Canada’s Prime Minister Carney said Ottawa and Mexico remain committed to a shared partnership with the United States, underscoring the importance of trilateral cooperation in North America. As part of that effort, Canada and Mexico will launch a new bilateral security dialogue, aimed at deepening collaboration on cross-border threats, law enforcement, and regional stability. The

Asian currencies held steady against the dollar in early trade, with National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril noting that risk appetite may provide support. He said markets have reassessed the Fed’s stance more positively, viewing Chair Powell’s “meeting by meeting” guidance as prudent. Overnight U.S. data pointed to labour market resilience and improving business sentiment, reinforcing

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) adjusts its interest rates in line with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decisions primarily because of the linked exchange rate system between the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the United States Dollar (USD). Established in 1983, this system pegs the HKD to the USD within a narrow band, currently at

Australian labour market report Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Employment Change -5.4K, a poor result expected 22.0K, prior 24.5K Participation Rate 66.8%, lower participation has prevented the jopbless rate from rising expected 67%, prior 67% Part-Time Employment +35.5K prior -35.9K Full-Time Employment -40.9K, terrible number prior 60.5K While the headline jobless rate is

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan core machine orders data for July 2025. These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set. -4.6% m/m expected -1.7%, prior 3.0% +4.9% y/y expected +5.4%, prior +7.6% The y/y headline flattered the data, that m/m is terrible. – The Bank of

At Meta Connect 2025, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled the company’s new Meta Ray-Ban Display smart glasses, a next-generation wearable that blends a camera with a built-in display to deliver true augmented reality. The $799 device, available from September 30 in black or sand with transition lenses, is being positioned as Meta’s answer to the long-defunct Google

Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to step up its easing cycle, forecasting the Official Cash Rate will be lowered to 2.5% at the October meeting and then cut again to 2.25% in November. 50bp cut followed by a 25bp cut The bank said the RBNZ faces mounting pressure to loosen policy

The data is here: Australia August 2025 jobless rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected) While that headline look fine, it’s the loss of jobs, 5.4K vs. the gain of 22K that was expected, along with the big losses in fulltime jobs, down 40.9K that has taken a toll on the Australian dollar. It’s a very weak

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The data from New Zealand was very disappointing indeed: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.9% q/q (vs. -0.3% expected) -0.9% is three times worse than what was expected. Its prompted forecasts for more interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Westpac tipping 75cp soon: Westpac forecasts Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts

Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the Federal Reserve to extend its easing cycle with quarter-point cuts in both October and December, following Wednesday’s reduction. The firm said the skew of the Fed’s dot plot points to a steady pace of easing, underscoring policymakers’ confidence that inflation is trending lower and that growth risks are rising.

The European Chamber of Commerce in China said at least one of its members has lost “millions of euros” due to Beijing’s strict controls on rare-earth exports, which still lack a consistent licensing process. China dominates the global rare-earth supply chain, accounting for nearly 70% of production and close to half of global reserves, giving

Société Générale’s Subadra Rajappa warned that U.S. stocks could retreat if the Federal Reserve proves less dovish than investors expect. Speaking on CNBC, she said “you could see an unwind” if markets sense the Fed is unwilling to cut rates as aggressively as priced in. – If the Fed’s dot plot signals fewer cuts than

Info comes via analysts at Australia’s Westpac Bank. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dropped back to -0.16% in August from +0.11% in July. First below-trend reading since late 2024. Recovery still

BofA analysts highlighted that investment demand for bullion has grown so strongly that it now exceeds central bank Treasury holdings, underscoring gold’s appeal as both a hedge and a portfolio anchor. Even so, they warn that sentiment looks crowded, leaving the metal vulnerable to shifts in Fed policy or market expectations. The immediate catalyst is

Fed FOMC rate cut expectations (Statement due on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 2pm US Eastern time, 1800 GMT). Most banks lean toward a 25 bps trim, but a couple of houses see the Fed moving faster with a 50 bps cut. 25 bps cut (consensus view): BMO Barclays CIBC Goldman Sachs JPMorgan Morgan Stanley

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

This data was out earlier, doing a catch up now. Exports -0.1% y/y, fall for 4th straight month expected -1.9%, prior -2.6% Imports -5.2% y/y expected -4.2%, prior -7.4% Trade Balance -242.5bn yen expected -513.6bn, prior -118.4bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) -11.30% y/y in August expected +0.1%, prior -4.7% -8.9% m/m (prior -6%) declines across both electronics and non-electronics shipments exports to the U.S., China and Indonesia fell sharply, including a 28.8% drop to the U.S. where Singapore faces a 10% tariff despite its free-trade agreement The weakness highlights pressure from

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan’s exports fell for a fourth straight month in August as higher U.S. tariffs weighed heavily on automakers and manufacturers. Exports to the U.S. plunged 13.8% year-on-year, the sharpest drop since early 2021, with automobiles down 28.4% and chipmaking equipment tumbling nearly 39%. Mizuho Research’s Saisuke Sakai noted that while some automakers have absorbed tariff

Lisa Cook WILL attend the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A U.S. appeals court has rejected Trump’s bid to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The court also denied a Justice Department request to pause a lower court ruling that blocks Trump from removing her. The decision clears the way for Cook

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration will not impose new tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil purchases unless Europe takes similar action. He told Reuters and Bloomberg that European governments must “do their share” to cut Moscow’s energy revenues, criticising both direct imports of Russian crude and purchases of Indian refined

Swiss wacth maker Swatch with its commentary on Turmp’s 39% tariffs on Switzerland: WHAT IF…TARIFFS? features a square Bioceramic case and edge-to-edge biosourced glass that allows a side view of the watch’s dial. The blue square dial, complemented by an integrated biosourced strap, is adorned with glow-in-the-dark hands. The inversion of Arabic numerals 3 and

Citigroup has launched new forecasts for ether, setting a year-end base case of $4,300—slightly below current levels around $4,515. The bank’s range is wide, with a bull case at $6,400 and a bear case at $2,200, highlighting deep uncertainty around drivers of value. Analysts pointed to network activity as the key determinant for ETH’s valuation

Miran will also attend the September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Senate approved Stephen Miran’s confirmation on a 48-47 vote will fill the seat that Adriana Kugler stepped down from last month will be the first executive-branch official to sit on the central bank’s board since 1935 Miran will be on the Board

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of America warns the latest surge in Chinese equities is unlikely to replicate last year’s explosive rally, when the CSI 300 Index jumped more than 30% in just weeks on a wave of stimulus-fuelled optimism. The benchmark has risen about 12% since early August to near a three-year high, but further gains may be

RBA’s Hunter says close to getting inflation to target Comments come from “Fireside Chat with Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, at the 2025 AFIA Conference” Close to getting inflation to target Risks around the outlook are balanced Monetary policy impact with a delay, have to be forward looking Consumption is looking better, position beginning to

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo is pleased with the consistent implementation of its tariff agreement with the United States, underscoring the deal as a sign of stable economic cooperation between the two countries. Hayashi noted that both governments have maintained their commitments under the pact so far, which is designed to smooth

Via a Standard Chartered not from last week ICYMI: Stan Chart has doubled its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, now predicting a 50-basis-point rate cut instead of the 25 bps reduction it previously expected. The shift comes after weak August jobs data showed payrolls slowing sharply and unemployment climbing to 4.3%, the highest

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Deposits rose by 600bn yuan less YoY in August, likely as long-term deposits matured and funds shifted into the stock market. Non-bank deposits surge: Up ¥1.18tn in August, ¥550bn more YoY — suggesting household money moved into brokerage margin accounts and equity mutual funds. Wealth management products grew only slightly (¥150bn less than a year

Chinese New House Prices -0.3% m/m in August prior -0.3% -2.5% y/y prior -2.8% Used home prices -0.58% m/m prior -0.55% — More: New home prices in first-tier cities -0.9% YoY in August prior -1.1% prices up in Shanghai, down in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities -3.5% YoY in August

Earlier: People’s Bank of China’s yuan strength set to fuel EM currency rally as Fed easing looms — People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB).

US President Trump with some comments: willing to impose sanctions on Russia Europe has toughen sanctions, should be commensurate with those levied by the US Europe should avoid purchasing oil from Russia says Fed Chair Powell is incompetent, is hurting the housing market has three people he likes for Fed Chair This article was written

Goldman Sachs has warned that a slowdown in artificial intelligence investment could wipe as much as 20% off U.S. stock market valuations. Analyst Ryan Hammond wrote that if long-term growth expectations revert to early 2023 levels, the S&P 500’s multiple would face 15–20% downside. AI spending is currently strong, but Hammond noted some analysts expect

UK Rightmove House Prices September: +0.4% m/m prior –1.3% House Prices -0.1% y/y, first y/y drop since January 2024 prior +0.3% The UK Rightmove House Price survey measures asking prices for homes put up for sale in the month. Reuters adds on rents: separate survey from Zoopla showed average rental prices were 2.4% higher in

In a note on Friday last week Deutsche Bank shifted its outlook, now expecting the Fed to deliver three 25-bps cuts this year, one at each of the September, October and December meetings. This compares with its earlier view of just two cuts in September and December. The bank’s U.S. chief economist, Matthew Luzzetti, said

more to come Industrial Production +5.2% y/y, a miss and lower than the rise in July expected +5.8%, prior was 5.7% Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD +0.5% y/y, a big miss expected 1.4%, prior was 1.6% Retail Sales +3.4% y/y, a big miss expected 3.8%, prior was 3.7% Unemployment rate 5.3% up from July’s 5.2%

Mon: Chinese Activity Data (Aug) Tue: UK Jobs Report (Jul), Italian CPI Final (Aug), EZ Industrial Production (Jul), German ZEW Survey (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug) and Industrial Production (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug) Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Aug), EZ CPI Final (Aug), New

Yesterday I wrote about the breakout in Tesla shares: At the moment, earnings simply don’t matter and this chart shows a nice looking series of higher lows that could be capped by a return the 2024 highs. Given the parabolic move in Oracle shares yesterday, I would certainly be wary of being short. Sure enough,

The FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will be the main focus next week. Alongside the Fed, three other central banks will also announce policy decisions: the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady.

Microsoft’s shares are on the run to the upside today after a series of positive catalysts. The company extended its partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing its leadership in AI investments tied to ChatGPT and Azure. It also settled with the European Commission on long-running antitrust issues related to Teams, easing regulatory pressure by offering Office 365

Treasury yields are 3-6 basis points higher on the day and that initially gave the US dollar a lift today but it’s fading. The dollar has been under some modest pressure since the softer UMich consumer sentiment data. That’s helped boost the euro to 1.1737 from 1.1712. There are similar 20-30 pip moves elsewhere and

The NATO chief has called the incursion ‘absolutely reckless’ but very few are calling for any kind of retaliation. Russia’s UN envoy today says it was ‘physically impossible’ for a Russian drone to have reached Polish territory. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US stock market futures were flat ahead of the open and that’s pretty much where they finished. There was a brief rise to a fresh intraday record high late in the day but that faded and the S&P 500 closed down 3 points to 6584, ending a four-day winning streak. The Nasdaq closed modestly higher,

Blackrock’s Rick Rieder has evidently made the long list of Fed candidates and he impressed Scott Bessent, according to a Bloomberg report. I don’t think it’s any surprise that Rieder said the Fed ‘should’ cut by 50 basis points at the upcoming meeting and maybe that’s why he got the interview (or the praise). The

It’s a big week for Canada with CPI and a Bank of Canada rate decision on deck. Here’s what’s coming up: Monday, Sept 15 • 8:30 am ET: July manufacturing shipments (consensus +1.8% m/m after +0.3% previously) • 8:30 am ET: Wholesale sales ex-petroleum (Jul, +1.3% expected) • 9:00 am ET: Existing home sales (Aug,

ECB Nagel is saying: More rate cuts could threaten price stability The ECB kept rates unchanged yesterday at their meeting. Overnight, a number of ECB officials spoke the “day-after” the interest rate decision where the central bank keep rates unchanged for the 2nd consecutive month: Rehn cautioned that downside risks to inflation remain, particularly from

What’s up next week? Central Bank decisions highlighted by the FOMC rate decision Rick Reider said to have climbed the ranks for role of Fed chair Tesla shares continue yesterday’s breakout with 7% surge The US dollar sags as we count down to Fed week Microsoft Technicals. Microsoft rebounds as shares retest key resistance at

Bessent to travel to Spain, UK from September 12–18 on trip that includes government, private sector meetings in London Bessent, China’s He to discuss key US-China national security, economic and trade issues, including TikTok and anti money-laundering cooperation Bessent to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, other senior Chinese officials next week in Madrid

Ex-Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein warned the U.S. is “due” for another crisis, pointing to hidden risks in credit markets such as narrow spreads and leveraged private credit. Still, he remains bullish, citing Fed rate cuts and the transformative potential of AI, and says he’s fully invested in equities—aligning with Goldman’s call for a new secular

Westpac have a detailed note out with what the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is facing at next week’s meeting. It’s a complex picture, I’ve tried to summarise: US labour market and inflation — key takeaways Weak August jobs data Nonfarm payrolls rose just 22k in August. June/July revised down by 21k.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The US and Japan finance ministers reaffirmed their G7 commitments on currency policy, stressing exchange rates should remain market-driven, with intervention limited to disorderly markets and operations disclosed monthly. Japan’s Finance Minister Kato said the joint statement was especially significant in light of the new US tariff order, while noting there were no talks with

China commerce ministry: Planned Mexican tariffs on China to seriously affect Mexico’s business environment Reduce confidence of enterprises in investing in Mexico China to take “necessary measures” to safeguard “legitimate rights and interests China responding to: Mexico slaps 50% tariffs on Chinese cars amid U.S. pressure, $52bn impact This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The US and Japan finance ministers reaffirmed their G7 commitments on currency policy, stressing exchange rates should remain market-driven. They pledged to avoid manipulation, limit intervention to disorderly markets, and disclose FX operations monthly. Japan–US finance ministers’ joint statement highlights The US Treasury and Japan’s Ministry of Finance reaffirmed their partnership and agreed to continue

Morgan Stanley says the British pound is more vulnerable to large capital flows than investors often assume, behaving more like smaller, less liquid currencies such as the Swiss franc or New Zealand dollar than the euro or yen. While $1 billion trades barely move the Japanese or European currencies, the same volume can shift sterling

Japan’s Hayashi announces plan to lower price cap on Russian oil – info via Reuters. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says the plan will come into effect Friday. Awaiting a little more detail on this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, with inflation now closely aligned to the bank’s 2% target. Policymakers see little urgency to adjust policy in the near term, but lingering concerns around global trade tensions and political uncertainty mean the door to further easing remains open.

At 11:15am New Zealand time (2315 GMT, 1915 US Eastern time), Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby will provide brief remarks at the Financial Services Council’s annual conference: will discuss the August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and the Capital Review consultation The RBNZ says that “No new information will be provided regarding economic

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan August 2025 PPI. +2.7% y/y, up from July expected 2.7%, prior 2.6 -0.2% m/m expected -0.1%, prior +0.2% – At the same time was Japan’s business survey for Q3, comes in at +3.8% for the large manufacturing index prior -4.8% The non manufacturing index was +5.2% from prior -0.5% – AKA Corporate Goods Price

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ house price balance, measures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices, RICS August house price balance fell to -19 from -13 in July, weakest since Jan 2024 and below economists’ forecast of -10. New buyer enquiries dropped to -17 (from -7), lowest since

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korean customs agency with the data for the first third of the month: exports +3.8% y/y Trade balance at provisional $-1.23 bln imports +11.1% y/y Meanwhile South Korea and the US are in discussions over the detaining of South Korea workers in the US after a U.S. immigration raid saw 475 workers rounded up

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby will provide brief remarks at the Financial Services Council’s annual conference: says the central projection for the OCR is to fall to around 2.50% by the end of the year but that could occur faster or slower depending on how the economic recovery evolves RBNZ faces a

Via the Wall Street Journal, a table of what is expected for the US CPI data due on Thursday, September 11, 2025. I posted a preview via Goldman Sachs yesterday ICYMI: US CPI data – Goldman Sachs preview: sees tariffs fuelling August core CPI above 3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has authorised the country’s banks to expand their use of cryptocurrencies in a bid to counter the impact of international sanctions and shore up the struggling economy. At a meeting with central and commercial bank leaders, Lukashenko called for urgent action to treat digital assets as strategic tools to stabilise and

A US member of Congress has harsh words on Russian actions in Poland: Russia is attacking NATO ally Poland with Iranian shahed drones less than a week after President Trump hosted President Nawrocki at the White House. This is an act of war, and we are grateful to NATO allies for their swift response to

Oracle’s latest quarterly earnings and revenue fell short of analyst forecasts, but the stock still soared after-hours as investors focused on massive cloud growth projections and new contracts. CEO Safra Catz said the company signed four multibillion-dollar deals in the fiscal first quarter, lifting remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion — up 359% from

Chinese insurers have lifted their equity holdings to the highest level in more than three years, responding to Beijing’s push to support a steady bull market. Report comes via Bloomberg. Regulatory data show holdings rose by 640 billion yuan ($90 billion) in the first half of 2025 to 3.1 trillion yuan, or 8.5% of total

Deutsche Bank lifted its 2025 S&P 500 earnings forecast to $277 per share, up from $267, after a stronger-than-expected Q2 reporting season. Analysts cited resilient company commentary around tariff headwinds and slightly better macro growth prospects. On the back of the earnings upgrade, the bank raised its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,000. This

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

CPI and PPI data from China for August 2025 China moving further into deflation. Despite ongoing stimulus efforts, admittedly incremental. CPI YY -0.4%, largest year-on-year drop in six months expected -0.2%, prior 0.0% for m/m 0% (expected +0.1%, prior +0.4%) PPI YY -2.9%, smallest year-on-year decline in four months expected -2.9%, prior -3.6% for m/m

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian goods, according to U.S. and EU officials. The move, conveyed in a call with EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan, is part of a U.S. push to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin by targeting two of

Residents in Eastern Poland are urged to shelter-in-place by the Polish Armed Forces. Translated text: Attention, during today’s attack by the Russian Federation carrying out strikes on targets located in the territory of Ukraine, our airspace was repeatedly violated by drone-type objects. An operation is underway aimed at identifying and neutralizing the objects. On the

Japanese manufacturers’ confidence climbed to its strongest level in more than three years in September, supported by easing trade tensions after Tokyo struck a tariff deal with Washington in July. The Reuters Tankan survey showed the manufacturers’ index rose to +13 from +9 in August, marking a third straight monthly gain and the highest since

Lumber prices have slumped sharply, raising concerns on Wall Street about the health of the housing market and broader economy. Futures have tumbled 24% since early August, when they touched a three-year high, settling at $526.50 per thousand board feet on Monday. The decline was partially cushioned after two of North America’s largest sawmills said

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

China’s Ministry of Commerce said in-depth discussions were held on bilateral trade relations and regional economic cooperation with Canada. The talks included China’s chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and Parliamentary Secretary to the Canadian Prime Minister Kody Blois. The meeting underscored Beijing’s engagement with both federal and provincial Canadian leaders as

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei share index hit 44,000 new record high PM Ishiba resigned over the weekend. Yesterday: Japan’s Topix has risen to its highest ever Yen may weaken as Japan leadership change clouds BOJ outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia August 2025 business conditions 7 5 in July 7 is the long run average for this measure Business confidence 4 vs. 8 in July 4 is close to the long run trend for this Some of the sub measures: business sales unchanged at +12 in August profitability up 2 points to +4 employment rebounded

I posted this earlier: Heads up – Expect a series of tweets from Trump soon after Epstein revelation be wary of some sort of action from Trump in the hours ahead to distract from Epstein revelations could be tweets could me more overt action such as some sort of military move While the USD has

Australia September 2025 Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence drops back from recent 3.5 year highs. down 3.1% m/m to 95.4 was +5.7% in August to its highest since early 2022 Reading under 100 means pessimists still outnumber optimists. WPAC comment: Outright optimism remains elusive cost-of-living crisis may be largely over and policy easing generating some uplift

The Long-Term Stock Exchange (LTSE) plans to petition the Securities and Exchange Commission to scrap quarterly earnings reports and instead let companies report twice a year, according to the Wall Street Journal (gated). LTSE argues the change would cut costs, reduce the administrative burden of earnings calls, and allow executives to focus on long-term strategy

The news from Monday out of France: French PM Bayrou loses confidence vote in national assembly The euro briefly wobbled on that but ultimately rose. The political turmoil in France is not yet over. Presdeint MAcron is searching for an acceptable new PM. If he can’t find one accepatable to the factions sharing power then

Japanese equites are solidly higher in morning trade. The Topix has hit a record high. Nikkei 225 is up 1.4%. PM Ishiba’s resignation has been greeted with relief by equity markets. The yen has fallen, making Japanese equities cheaper for offshore investors. GBP/JPY is hitting a 12-month high, as is EUR/JPY. Yen is off to

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

An enhanced-liquidity auction in Japan is when the government reissues existing JGBs to boost the supply of particular maturities that are in demand. Unlike regular auctions of new issues, these sales are aimed at improving secondary-market liquidity, ensuring smoother trading conditions and more stable yields across the curve. When Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) does

Revised economic growth data from Japan for the April to June quarter of 2025 comes in better than the flash reading for the data did. GDP Annualized (QoQ): 2.2% Expected: 1.0% Previous: 1.0% GDP (QoQ): 0.5% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.3% GDP Private Consumption (QoQ): 0.4% Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% private consumption accounts for more than

Japan’s economy grew more strongly than first estimated in Q2, extending its expansion streak to five consecutive quarters. Revised data showed real GDP rising at an annualised 2.2% pace, double the initial 1% estimate, with quarterly growth at 0.5%. Consumption and capital expenditure were both revised higher, though capex was softer than initially reported. The

Goldman Sachs says OPEC+ decision to start gradually unwinding the 1.65 mb/d of cuts likely primarily reflects that OECD commercial stocks remain low says it keeps its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025, close to the forwards, and for the 2026 average at $56/$52 “Risks to our 2025–2026 price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly

President Donald Trump urged foreign companies operating in the U.S. to respect immigration laws and prioritise hiring and training Americans after federal agents raided Hyundai’s battery plant in Georgia last week. The raid led to the arrest of about 475 workers, including roughly 300 South Koreans now being repatriated. Writing on Truth Social, Trump said

China’s leadership is growing concerned that loose monetary policy is fuelling an overheated stock rally, raising the risk that the People’s Bank of China may delay fresh easing measures. Regulators are wary of repeating the 2015 equity market crash, which wiped out $6.8 trillion in value. While some economists still anticipate a modest rate cut

MUFG Bank strategist Michael Wan warned the yen could remain weak in the near term following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to step down. The choice of successor will be key for market direction: Sanae Takaichi, from the LDP’s conservative wing, is viewed as yen-negative given her backing for easy monetary policy and fiscal stimulus,

It’s a bull market in many markets at the moment but certainly not in oil, which is likely to get more bad news on Sunday. Initial reports about Saudi Arabia pushing for a further production hike circulated on Friday and lowered crude by $1.51 but it’s likely to fall even more if/when the hike is

The stock market is struggling to decide on whether it likes rate cuts enough to ignore a weakening economy. I highlighted earlier that there are 135 bps in cuts priced in over the next year and 155 bps through 2026. That gets rates below 3% and feels like ‘peak Fed pricing’ or something close. The

You can put that gold chart in the technical analysis text book, at least so far. Gold has been in a long-term bull market, almost a parabolic one from $2000 post-pandemic. After spiking to a record $3500 in April, it took a break and consolidated for five months. Now that it’s clear the Fed is

There was something of a random walk down Wall Street today but it ended in the red-ink districts. The jobs report was poor and initially the market took that as good news due to more rate cuts being priced in. Later, that sentiment reversed and recession fears hit, leading to a sizeable swing to the

Some comments on TV: We’re open to criticism but totally opposed to taking away independence Anyone who joins the FOMC will take the job seriously This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The euro has been one of the beneficiaries of a weakening US dollar following another soft non-farm payrolls report. It’s up 96 pips to 1.1745 and touched as high as 1.1759. That’s a fresh high since July 27 and looks like a breakout from the recent period of consolidation, particularly if it can close above

RBC economist Claire Fan is out with a review of today’s soft Canadian jobs report. Jobs fell by 66K after a 41K decline in July in what’s clearly a worsening picture. She notes that the weakness mirrors a softening picture in the US. Fan highlights that unemployment at 7.1% is the highest in a decade

All aboard the rate-cut train. A soft US jobs report wasn’t bad enough to prompt recessions fears and instead the market is cheering on a more-dovish rate path for the Fed. There is now 134 bps in easing priced in, which gets the Fed close to 3%. What I worry is that we’re close to

There are some modest bids that have crept in over the past hour but the S&P 500 is still down 26 points, or 0.4%. All week long there have been strong bids into the close so let’s see if we can get a repeat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It was a soggy start for European stocks this month as most indexes sagged this month. The DAX tried to recover mid-week but never made it and today’s selling put it near the lows of the week. Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.2% German DAX -0.85% France CAC -0.4% UK FTSE 100 -0.1%

August US non-farm payrolls +22K vs +75K expected Canada August employment change -65.5K vs +10.0K expected Fed’s Goolsbee: We’re open to criticism on improving Fed decision making Timiraos: Soft jobs report will make it easier for Fed to agree on 25 bps cut Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to speed up next oil production boost US

OpenAI set to start mass production of its own AI chips with U.S. semiconductor giant Broadcom The chip co-designed with US semiconductor giant Broadcom, would ship next year chip to be used internally at OpenAI rather than make it available to external customers The Financial Times has the report, gated, citing people familiar with the

Japan data, overall household spending was higher than expected and notably higher than in June July household spending +1.7% m/m (expected +1.3%, prior -5.2%) July household spending +1.4% y/y (expected +2.3%, prior +1.3%) Wages up solidly also: July overtime pay +3.3% y/y (prior +0.56%) July total cash earnings +4.1% y/y (expected 3.0%, prior +3.1%) July

Say what you like about Trump, he plays the media very astutely. Trump levied tariffs on autos from Japan at 27.5% On Thursday, US time, he signed an order with the tariffs now at 15% instead. I have seen plenty of headlines, including from reputable financial media, loudly hailing that Trump has lowered tariffs on

President Trump’s son Eric says he’ll be making “a big announcement” Friday. I’m guessing crypto related. This seems to be where the family is harvesting substantial amounts of money from. Only a guess though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fixed interest moves still swinging: 10 year UST yield around 4.1569%, its lowest since May 1 2 year circa 3.5837%, ditto on lowest since May 1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated Q&A before an mHub Industry Disruptor Series event, in Chicago. Labor market might be deteriorating Inflation might be picking back up There is a bit of wait and see because of the uncertainty Rates are better indicators for labor market than raw job

Oil prices extended their decline, by a tiny margin, for a third straight session on Friday as traders awaited an OPEC+ meeting this weekend that could decide on fresh output hikes. Eight OPEC members and partners including Russia are set to discuss raising production in October, sources told Reuters. Such a move would begin unwinding

President Donald Trump said his administration will soon impose tariffs on semiconductor imports from companies that have not shifted production to the United States. Speaking ahead of a dinner with technology executives, Trump said the duties would be “substantial, not that high, but fairly substantial,” while exempting firms that are already building or planning U.S.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Morgan Stanley says monopoly ruling unlikely to dent Google’s dominance. Morgan Stanley argues that Google will remain firmly in control of the search market despite the antitrust ruling handed down this week. Analysts led by Brian Nowak said the remedies outlined in the decision were “likely benign and unlikely to dislodge GOOGL’s leading position.” The

HSBC has lifted its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 6,500 from 6,400, its second upgrade in less than a month, citing stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings and only a modest drag from tariffs. “We revise our S&P 500 year-end target to 6500 after incorporating better-than-expected Q2 results” The new target implies about 1.3% upside from the index’s

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Rising Japanese government bond yields are poised to reshape global currency and rate markets next year, according to a note from RBC. Japanese yields now offering compelling returns means domestic investors are increasingly likely to keep money at home rather than chase higher returns abroad For the first time since 2020, Japanese investors will have

Reports that China is considering curbs on stock speculation, in order to foster steady gains. China’s financial regulators are considering a number of cooling measures for the stock market, including the removal of some short selling curbs, and adding options to dampen speculative trading. China’s regulators are considering new measures to curb speculation after a

Nasdaq is moving to tighten its listing requirements, proposing new minimum thresholds for companies seeking to join the exchange. Under the plan, new listings would be required to have a public float of at least $15 million, while Chinese companies would face a higher bar with a minimum offering size of $25 million. Nasdaq also

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Crypto media outlets are pumping out speculation that Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) is a leading candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500, with an announcement expected Friday. The index is rebalanced quarterly; recent additions include Jack Dorsey’s Block in July. Other contenders this round include Robinhood and Applovin. MSTR was one of the best-performing

Japan trade negotiator Akazawa: Visiting U.S. as administrative issues have been solved Will continue to push for presidential order for what has been agreed on tariffs Ishiba administration should continue to carry out imminent tasks, no need for early LDP leadership election This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trade data for Australia in July 2025 Trade Balance +7310mn, smashing expectations expected 4,920mn prior 5,365mn Exports (MoM) +3.3%, well ahed of the previous month prior +2 6% Imports (MoM) -1.3%, which is not encouraging. A strong economy should be sucking in imports. prior -3.1% The Australian Bureau of Statistics have also published the July

Australian economic growth data for the April to June quarter, 2025 Q2 GDP +0.6% q/q for a beat expected +0.5%, prior +0.2% +1.8% y/y beating also, and the fastest in 2 years (bear in mind that 2.5% used to be considered a normal growth rates, so still well short of that) expected +1.6%, prior +1.3%

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japanese Government Bonds: 20 yr above 2.685%, highest since 1999 30 yr 3.28% Its not just Japan, yields are rising globally as fixed interest investors demand more return of long lending to governments. Rising yield played a role in shaking stocks on tuesday, BTD has prevailed so far though. This article was written by Eamonn

Speculation over President Donald Trump’s health has spilled into prediction markets, where platforms are now offering contracts on whether he will remain in office through year-end. Event contracts launched last weekend by Kalshi and Polymarket, two crypto-focused prediction markets, priced Trump’s chances of leaving the White House before 2026 at between 6% and 10%. Traders

The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% m/m in August prior -1.8% for the y/y +9.3% in NZD terms the index rose 2.1% m/m, with the NZD weakening over the month ANZ comments: all components of the Index rose, except aluminium index had been drifting lower since May due to falling dairy prices, but

Services and Composite PMIs from Japan Japan’s services sector continued to expand in August, though at a slightly slower pace, with the S&P Global Services PMI easing to 53.1 from 53.6 in July. The services sector’s resilience offset manufacturing weakness, lifting the composite PMI to 52.0, the strongest since February. From the report, in summary:

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Currency strategists say the U.S. dollar is more likely to consolidate than collapse in the months ahead, even as markets look toward Federal Reserve rate cuts. Rabobank: argued the dollar’s scope to fall is limited in the near term, with easing already priced in and positioning skewed toward further weakness earlier in the year, non-U.S.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is having his huge military parade in Beijing’s Tian’anmen Square Special guests, among others, are dictators Kim Jong Un from North Korea and Putin from Russia. ‘ US President Trump has addressed a message to Chinese President Xi Jinping: “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un,

Services 53.0 expected 52.5, prior 52.6 Composite 51.9 prior 50.8 The Chinese services PMI is what used to be known as the Caixin / S&P Global PMI. Caixin and no longer the sponsor though, now its the Ratings Dog/S&P Global PMI. China Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) 49.4 (expected 49.5) Services 50.3 (expected 50.3) ICYMI –

South Korea August consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since November 2024 South Korea August consumer price index +1.7% y/y (Reuters poll +2.0%) South Korea August consumer price index -0.1% m/m (Reuters poll +0.2%) South Korea August core (excluding volatile food and energy prices) CPI +1.3% y/y vs +2.0% in July the slowest increase

Australian Net Exports Contribution (Q2) +0.1% expected 0.0%, prior -0.1% Current Account Balance -13.7bn AUD expected -16.0bn, prior -14.7bn The April – June quarter in Australia saw: softer commodity prices impacting Australian exports but higher volumes of exports (Q1 volumes were negatively impacted by adverse weather events, while fewer student arrivls weighed on services export

New Zealand terms of trade for Q2 2025 rise 4.1% q/q expected +1.9%, prior +1.9% At the margin better ToT is supportive for the currency. Export prices +0.2% q/q expected +1.5%, prior +7.1% Import prices -3.7% q/q expected -1.5%, prior +5.1% — Terms of trade refer to the ratio between the prices of a country’s

China’s stock market has surged, with the CSI 300 Index up about 25% since February, despite economic headwinds such as weak consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, and a worsening property sector. What’s surprising is that the rally is happening in the absence of stronger fundamentals. Authorities in Beijing are now framing the upturn as the payoff

Japan Post Bank plans to roll out a digital yen by the end of fiscal 2026, aiming to give its depositors easier access to digital transactions. The bank, which manages about ¥190 trillion ($1.29 trillion) in deposits and is partly owned by the Japanese government, will introduce DCJPY, a blockchain-based deposit currency developed by DeCurret

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UBS says gold should also benefit from lower real rates and ongoing geopolitical risks. Lower interest rates typically benefit non-interest-bearing bullion. UBS: “our target remains USD 3,700/oz by end-June 2026” (ps there is more on UBS’ FOMC outlook here: UBS tips a Fed ‘four-peat’: four straight rate cuts at the next four meetings) Meanwhile, on

Apple is expected to release the new iPhone 17 series on September 9th (US time). Foxconn in China is the main contract manufacturer. Foxconn is ramping wages higher to attract workers in order to hit shipment targets: media reports indicate that employees at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant are “working overtime every day.” factory launched a series

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

BOJ Deputy Governor Himino says Japan’s real interest rate remains very low Appropriate to continue raising rates in line with improvements in the economy and prices Notes there are both upside and downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation BOJ wants to scrutinise without preset assumptions whether baseline projections materialise Japan–US trade agreement

Australian July Building permits -8.2% m/m expected -4.8%, prior +11.9% For the y/y, % prior +27.4% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan data from its Ministry of Finance. Capital Spending (YoY) (Q2) comes in at +7.6% for a solid beat expected 6.3%, prior 6.4% this is spending on plant and equipment the data will feed into Q3 GDP (economic growth) data due on September 8 and augers well Capital Spending Ex Software (Y/Y) +5.2% expected 4.9%,

The privately surveyed inflation gauge from the Melbourne Institute -0.3% m/m prior +0.9% 2.8% y/y prior 2.9% Core inflation, the trimmed mean, fell 0.2% m/m in August 2.4%y/y (vs. prior 2.6%) AUD/USD has dribbled back to its session low around 0.6537. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea’s exports rose in August but fell short of forecasts as new U.S. tariffs hit shipments. Exports grew 1.3% y/y to $58.4 billion, weaker than the 3.0% expected and slowing from July’s 5.9% gain. The downturn was driven by a 12% plunge in U.S.-bound exports, the sharpest since May 2020, after tariffs on Korean

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing, August 2025 falls from July. Comes in at 49.7 prior 49.9 Remains in contraction. Export orders dropped at the sharpest pace in nearly 18 months, led by weaker demand from China, Europe and the U.S. Factory output decline slowed, but new orders overall continued to fall amid soft demand. Firms

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A car crashed into the Russian consulate in Sydney this morning, local time. Crashed into the gates. A police spokesperson said a person had been arrested in connection with the crash. A police officer was injured in what appears to be an attack. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian business inventories +0.1% q/q, rundown cited along with the possibility of higher demand expected +0.2%, prior +0.8% this will feed into Q2 GDP data … but at +0.1% not by very much Company Profits Pre-Tax +2.1% q/q prior +0.7% Gross Operating Profits -2.4% q/q expected +1.0%, prior -0.5% AUD is around its session low

China S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) comes in way above expected and a big jump from July at 50.5 expected 49.5, prior 49.5 The fastest growth in five months: The expansion beat expectations (49.7) and contrasted with the official PMI, which showed contraction. Supply and demand showed significant improvement. Continued postponement of tariffs at

These Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). For August 2025: Manufacturing PMI 49.4, a slight miss expected 49.5, prior 49.3 this is the fifth consecutive month in contraction for the official manufacturing PMI domestic demand remains disappointing Non-Manufacturing (includes services and construction)

The US dollar will likely finish the day at the lows today. It’s been a rollercoaster week with the greenback erasing most of the losses triggered by Powell’s dovish tilt just to give the gains back heading into the weekend. Today there was no meaningful catalyst for the downside as the PCE data came out

There is no universal recipe for success in trading. However, there are some baselines you should follow to have a better shot at gaining profit. You can learn these vital reference points from your own mistakes—or choose the easier way and study the experience of others. In this article, Kar Yong Ang, financial analyst at

The upside in gold has been supported since Powell’s dovish tilt last Friday. Inflation expectations kept on climbing, while Treasury yields fell into new lows. That caused real yields to fall, giving further boost to gold prices. Today we are seeing a stronger push to the upside although we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. This

It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy. Both mandates are in tensions now. Tariffs are pushing inflation higher and the labour market is slowing. I think tariff-relates price increases will be a one-off. It will take time before we know that for certain but we can’t wait for perfect

The US dollar ends the month lower. Will September be the same? Baker Hughes US oil rig count 412 vs 408 expected Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE for July +1.9% vs +3.4% prior Judge did not rule on the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook today Gold rises back to the upper bound of a

From the agency: the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal

The Judge asked more time to preserve the status quo while she considers the merits of the legal fight. The Fed today said in a court filing that it takes no position in the lawsuit but that it wants a “prompt ruling” to remove “the existing cloud of uncertainty”. This article was written by Giuseppe

1 month annualised +1.9% vs +3.4% prior 6 months annualised +2.6% vs +2.8% prior 12 month annualised +2.7% vs +2.7 prior The 1 month annualised rate is very volatile, so don’t mistake that for inflation coming down. The 6 month and 12 month annualised rates are a better gauge of the trend. This article was

Prior 411 Total rig count 536 vs 538 prior Gas rigs 119 vs 122 prior This is not a market moving indicator as it’s very lagging. Oil rigs count is of course correlated to oil prices. When oil prices trend upwards, oil rigs count increases, and when oil prices trend downwards, oil rigs count decreases.

On Friday evening, the Federal Circuit court struck down the vast majority of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, ruling them illegal under laws that give Congress control of tariffs and tax policy. The 7-4 decision rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was used improperly in the case of fentanyl tariffs against Mexico/Canada/China and

Bloomberg carry the report, gated. In brief: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves could boost revenues by imposing a windfall tax on commercial banks, targeting profits earned from taxpayer-funded deposits at the Bank of England. The Institute for Public Policy Research estimates such a levy would raise £32.3 billion over the current five-year parliament, giving Reeves £3.6

Australian Private sector credit (July 2025) +0.7% m/m expected +0.6%, prior +0.6% higher than expected for a nice beat all three main measures higher (see pic of table below) +7.2% y/y prior +6.8% – Private sector credit data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is closely watched because it provides an early read on

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Caterpillar shares dropped in after hours trade. The firm disclosed it now expects the net impact from tariffs in the US$1.5bn to 1.8bn range, from 1.3 to 1.5 previously expects a US$500mn to 600mn impact in Q3 alone expects its full-year adjusted operating profit margin to come in near the bottom of the target margin

Like myself, perhaps the Bollinger Band was one of the first indicators you discovered at the beginning of your trading journey. After all, it’s supposed to make everything super easy… …just buy low and sell high, right!?…  Well, sure, there may be some lucky wins at the start. But as time goes on… you start experiencing losses…  Worse yet, they

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: No set sequence on how fast to cut rates We know we are going toward neutral, just a question of how fast we get there Says tariffs are a tax Says taxes do not raise inflation US debt on unsustainable path but not problem today, can be paid in years ahead

Tokyo headline CPI 2.6% y/y expected 2.6%, prior 2.9% CPI excluding fresh food 2.5% y/y expected 2.5%, prior 2.9% CPY excluding fresh food & energy (a gauge of underlying inflation) +3.1% y/y, the highest since January 2024 expected 3.0%, prior 3.1% These sort of inflation levels, all well above the Bank of Japan 2% target,

Japan July 2025 data: Retail Sales +0.3% y/y expected -0.2%, prior +0.9% +0.3% y/y expected +1.8%, prior +1.9% Industrial Production -1.6% m/m expected -1.0%, prior +2.1% -0.9% y/y (expected -0.6%, prior 4.4% Forecast 1 month ahead (for August) +2.8% (prior +1.8%) Forecast 2 months (for September) -0.3% m/m (Prev. 0.8%) 00:50 Japanese IP This article

Japan July Unemployment rate 2.3% expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job to applicant ratio 1.22 expected 1.23, prior 1.22 Japan’s labour market remains tight. The inflation data was out at the same time. that’s the focus: Tokyo August 2025 headline CPI 2.6% y/y (2.6% expected) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Vice President Vance in an interview on Thursday, on dismantling Fed independence: “I don’t think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people…POTUS is much better able to make these determinations.” If you were in any doubt

Recapping Nvidia earnings and call. In brief: Nvidia shares slipped after-hours as uncertainty over China sales overshadowed a forecast that still topped Wall Street expectations. The company left Chinese revenue out of its Q3 guidance, citing regulatory risk, while data center sales showed hints of slower cloud spending. More: Nvidia shares fell 3.2% in after-hours

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

ANZ Business Survey August 2025 business confidence improves to 49.7 in August, from 4738 in July own business activity outlook is not so hot, coming at 38.7% from 40.6% in July From the report, in brief: confidence up as firms expect better business conditions ahead as inflation indicators ease 49.7% expect the economy to improve

Japan trade negotiator Akazawa to cancel US visit, Kyodo reports. USD/JPY is up a few points from its earlier lows, circa 147.45 as I update. He was intending to discuss Japanese investment plans into the US: Japan’s head trade negotiator Akazawa is heading back to the US on Thursday This article was written by Eamonn

Q2 2025 Australian Private Capital Expenditure Building Capital Expenditure +0.2% q/q prior +0.9% Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure +0.3% q/q prior -1.3% Estimate 3 for 2025-26 is $174.8b. This is 12.0% higher than Estimate 2 for 2025-26. A bit of a mixed bag this report. The headline is weker than expected. This article was written by Eamonn

Bank of Korea forecasts: Sees 2025 GDP growth at 0.9% Sees 2026 GDP growth at 1.6% Sees 2025 headline inflation at 2.0% vs 1.9% previously Sees 2026 inflation at 1.9% vs 1.8% previously Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT (2210 US Eastern time) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China top trade negotiator Li Chenggang in Canada: Co-chaired joint economic and Trade Committee in Ottawa Two sides had frank, pragmatic and constructive exchanges on improving and developing bilateral economic and trade relations Two sides discussed specific paths for the improvement and development of China-Canada economic and trade relations Both sides agree follow-up communication China

The Financial Times is gated, but in brief: China’s chipmakers are seeking to triple the country’s total output of artificial intelligence processors next year one fabrication plant dedicated to producing Huawei’s AI processors is scheduled to start production as soon as the end of this year two more are due to launch next year FTS

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa, full text: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Nakagawa: If its outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, BOJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate High uncertainties remain over future course of trade policies and their impact BoJ will make monetary appropriate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Crypto fund manager Canary Capital has filed to launch Wall Street’s first spot ETF directly tied to President Trump’s meme coin, TRUMP. Unlike earlier filings this year that proposed indirect exposure through Cayman subsidiaries and U.S. Treasuries, Canary’s application was made under the Securities Act of 1933, ensuring full and direct exposure to the token

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, ticked up to 0.12% in July from 0.01% in June. Notes from analysts at WPAC: Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 0.12% in July. ‘Slow

Via various crypto media outlets: BlackRock acquired $314.9 million in Ethereum over several transactions in the past five days. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $443.91 million, signalling fresh institutional demand for crypto. BlackRock’s purchases underscore rising confidence in Ethereum’s long-term investment potential. ETH had been under price pressure but staged a recovery on

A hot inflation reading from Australia. Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (YoY) (Jul) comes in at +2.8% expected 2.3%, prior 1.9% the m/m is +0.9% (prior 0.2%) goods inflation 2.3% y/y, prior 1.1% The core measure, ‘trimmed mean’ has come in at 2.7% y/y, a very sharp jump indeed prior 2.1% AUD/USD has popped a little

Japan’s head trade negotiator Akazawa is heading back to the US on Thursday will be discussing Japanese investment into the US Asahi TV with the report This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian data – Q2 2025 Construction Work Done +3.0% q/q expected +0.8%, prior +0% Encouraging improvement. Most of the focus is on the monthly CPI, a very hot reading: Australian monthly CPI (July 2025) 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.3% expected) *** Construction work done includes building work (residential and non – residential) and engineering work. This

China will send senior trade envoy Li Chenggang to Washington this week, its first talks in the U.S. capital in years, amid efforts to strengthen dialogue during the tariff truce. Li will meet U.S. officials and business leaders to discuss soybeans, fentanyl tariffs, and tech restrictions, against a backdrop of Trump’s fresh threat of 200%

China data, July Industrial profit -1.5% y/y prior -4.3% YTD -1.7% y/y prior -1.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s CSPI, or services PPI +2.9% y/y in August expected +3.2%, prior +3.2% For the m/m +0.3% prior -0.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump announced Monday that he has dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Trump did so via a letter posted on his social media this is the first time in the central bank’s 111-year history that a sitting Fed governor has been fired Trump says he is removing Fed Governor Cook The response was instant: The

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

US dollar falling on this further and sustained attack on Fed independence. While FX vs. the USD is jumping Gold is surging. Trump is doing everything he can to get the Fed to cut interest rates. He’ll seek to replace Cook with a ‘yes man’ who will do whatver Trump wants if the effort to

Trump warned on Truth Social that he may impose significant new tariffs on countries that maintain measures he considers discriminatory, such as digital taxes or rules targeting U.S. tech firms, and also threatened export restrictions on semiconductors. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

China’s senior trade envoy Li Chenggang will visit Washington this week for the first round of negotiations with U.S. officials under the current tariff truce. The talks, which also include U.S. business leaders, come as both sides work to ease restrictions and maintain stability in trade flows. – A senior Chinese trade negotiator, Li Chenggang,

The news as it happened: Trump says he is removing Fed Governor Cook US dollar move in response: The USD has been slammed lower on the news of Trump moving to fire Fed Governor Cook That US dollar move is extending lower, gold a huge beneficiary. But not the only one. EUR, yen, CHF all

Trump is moving to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Cook has been under pressure for about a week to resign, Trump escalating the matter now. The USD is taking a hit both on the prospoect of this increasing increasing the probability of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in September, and also on

Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, from the August 11-12 meeting: The RBA board saw a strong case for a 25bps cut in the cash rate The board judged some further reduction in the cash rate likely needed over the coming year The stance of policy was still considered somewhat restrictive The pace of rate cuts

Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke on Friday, sending the dollar lower: investingLive Americas FX news wrap 22 Aug: Markets cheer on Powell tilt (for now) USD/JPY has bounced back on a retracement move so far in the Asia morning here. There is no fresh news, although Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke on Saturday: BOJ’s

Starbucks will scale back production at its U.S. coffee plants to a five-day schedule from January as part of CEO Brian Niccol’s cost-cutting drive. The move comes amid sluggish U.S. demand and follows capped raises for salaried employees. — Starbucks plans to reduce output at its five U.S. coffee roasting and packaging facilities, moving to

Keurig Dr Pepper is nearing an agreement to buy Dutch coffee company JDE Peet’s in a deal worth about $18 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal (gated). The acquisition would split the combined group into separate beverage and coffee units, effectively reversing the 2018 Keurig–Dr Pepper merger that analysts had long criticized. Keurig Dr

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius highlighted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone, noting Powell described the labor market as being in “a curious kind of balance” where both supply and demand for workers have slowed in tandem. Powell warned that the downside risks to employment are rising, with the potential for those risks to

Evergrande’s shares will be delisted in Hong Kong, cementing the downfall of China’s onetime property giant. The $50bn developer’s collapse under huge debts triggered a sector-wide crisis, while founder Hui Ka Yan has been fined, banned, and stripped of most of his fortune. – China Evergrande’s shares will be removed from the Hong Kong stock

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

April – June 2025 retail sales data from NZ. New Zealand Retail Sales +2.3% y/y prior +0.7% Retail Sales Volumes +0.5% q/q prior +0.8% Via the Stats NZ report, in brief: “Retail activity recorded a modest increase in the June quarter, with growth seen in most industries” Eight of the 15 retail industries had higher

Pantheon Macroeconomics said Powell’s Friday remarks mark a clear change in tone from the Fed’s July minutes, which had stressed upside inflation risks. Powell now sees the “balance of risks” shifting, with weaker labor data the catalyst. July’s jobs report showed payroll growth averaging just 35k over three months, down sharply from 168k in 2024.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Hedge funds cut their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level in nearly 17 years, as the fading risk of fresh sanctions on Russian crude shifted focus back to oversupply concerns. CFTC data, reported via Bloomberg (gated) showed money managers’ net-long position in West Texas Intermediate futures fell by 19,578 lots to just

Major US stock indices moved sharply higher with the flow of funds heading into the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the way with a gain of 3.86%. The gain was the largest for the index since April 9. The 3 major indices also closed higher with the: Dow industrial average up 846.24 points or 1.89%. That’s

President Trump remarked that Canada’s removal of retaliatory tariffs was “nice” and said he expects to have another call with Prime Minister Carney soon, emphasizing that he wants to be “good to Canada” and had a productive conversation yesterday. Turning to Russia, Trump noted that President Vladimir Putin “may be coming” to the World Cup

The price of crude oil is settling at $63.66, up $0.14 or 0.22%. The high for the day reached $63.93, while the low came in at $63.31, leaving a relatively narrow trading range. Looking across the week, the market established a low at $61.45 on Monday, before testing the falling 100-hour moving average and quickly

The weaker Baker Hughes rig count data for the current week is showing: Oil rigs -1 at 411 Natural gas unchanged at 122 Total Rig count -1 at 538. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD fell sharply this week following the dovish RBNZ rate cut, which included a surprise downgrade in the central bank’s rate path expectations. The move lower drove the pair away from its 100-hour moving average, breaking below the 38.2% retracement of the April-to-July rise and undercutting the key swing area support at 0.5845–0.5860, which

The USDJPY fell sharply, breaking decisively below the 100-hour moving average at 147.775 and the 200-hour moving average at 147.57 (blue and green lines). That move immediately stripped away the bullish bias from a technical perspective and shifted control firmly to the sellers. The decline has since carried the pair into a key swing area/floor

Russia’s Putin: There is a light in the end of the tunnel in Russia-US relations. Contacts continue after Alaska Summit Hopes that the first steps are the start to the full scale restoration of relations; this still depends on the West Is sure Trump’s leadership qualities will help restore ties. Sounds like he just wants

U.S. Credit Ratings Overview Fitch Ratings: The U.S. is rated AA+ with a Stable outlook, reflecting continued confidence in the country’s fiscal resilience. S&P Global Ratings: The U.S. is rated AA+ with a Stable outlook, supported by tariff revenues and strong credit fundamentals. Moody’s Investors Service: In May 2025, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from Aaa

The FHFA director William Pulte will be referring two more people this afternoon for mortgage fraud. It is unclear if they will be other Fed Governors. What we can be somewhat confident about, is it will be politically motivated. If the law is broken, I fully understand, but also in play is that the “Revenge/Power

US major indices cheer on the Powell speech Fitch affirms the US a AA+ with the outlook stable. Russia’s Putin: There is a light in the end of the tunnel in Russia-US relations WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.66 More Trump News: Thought Canada removing retaliatory tariffs was wise. Baker Hughes oil rig count

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UK GFK Consumer Confidence -17 vs -20 expected (-19 prior) This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The article is gated, but here is a link for those who want to read up on it. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

A company spokesperson said OpenAI’s Chief People Officer will depart. She will be leaving the company on Friday. According to Reuters, OpenAI’s CEO announced that she had been promoted to the chief people officer role. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Below is the full agenda for the Jackson Hole Symposium (link to the agenda release is here) Thursday, August 21, 2025 6:00 p.m. MT (8:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 a.m. BST Fri) – Opening Reception and Dinner Host: Jeffrey Schmid, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Friday, August 22, 2025 (8:00 a.m.

China’s foreign minister met with Pakistan’s president in Islamabad, according to Xinhua. He said China is willing to work with Pakistan to deepen traditional friendship and strengthen strategic communication. He added that China is ready to work on upgrading the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Japan nationwide core CPI YY 3.1% vs 3.0% expected (3.3% prior) Japan nationwide overall CPI YY 3.1% vs 3.3% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

As we wait for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, let’s take a look at what some of the nowcast indicators show for growth and inflation. Starting with growth, we have the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracket at 2.3% for Q3. Moving on to inflation, and looking at the Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast, Core CPI YY is currently

Below is a quick summary of the article in the WSJ by Nick Timiraos, here is the link to the full article for those who want more details. Strategic U‑Turn in the Works The Federal Reserve plans to retreat from key elements of its 2020 monetary policy framework, which allowed inflation to run modestly above

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The softer NFP and CPI data have reinforced their conviction that the Fed is back on the path to cutting, with a 25bp move in September still their base case. The stronger July PPI was only a temporary hiccup and isn’t seen as a game-changer. Positioning doesn’t look crowded, which means there’s still room for

Australia Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.9 vs 51.3 Prior Australia Flash Services PMI 55.1 vs 53.8 Prior Australia Flash Composite PMI 54.9 vs 53.6 Prior Composite PMI: 54.9 (Jul 53.8), highest since Apr 2022 Services PMI: 55.1 (Jul 54.1), strongest in 40 months Manufacturing PMI: 52.9 (Jul 51.3) Manufacturing output: 53.9 (Jul 52.3) Drivers: Stronger new

Japan flash manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 48.9 prior Japan flash services PMI 52.7 vs 53.5 prior Japan flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.5 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

US Vice President Vance said Europeans are going to have to take the lion’s share of the burden in security. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan should expand development cooperation and increase trade and investment exchanges. He emphasized the need to improve the security dialogue mechanism and deepen law enforcement and security cooperation. The three sides should strengthen exchanges at all levels and consolidate strategic mutual trust. China said it supports

Highlights of the partnership via a Reuters article, doing the rounds on a few other sites as well though. FanDuel (via parent company Flutter) is teaming up with CME Group to offer event contracts in late 2025. They’ll operate through a freshly formed joint venture acting as a non‑clearing futures commission merchant. Event contracts span

EURNOK — upside risk (base case dips toward ~11.75 first) Trade idea from the bank: Go long EURNOK on a clean break and hold above 12.00, or buy dips into seasonal late-year NOK softness; avoid structural NOK longs for now. Why: Norges Bank set to cut in September and keep easing → weaker NOK carry

Meta froze hiring in its AI division last week, halting both external hires and internal transfers. Exceptions to the freeze require approval from Meta’s Chief AI Officer, Alexandr Wang. A spokesperson framed the move as part of organizational planning and yearly budgeting. Meta recently hired over 50 AI researchers and engineers, often offering massive compensation

Musk told allies he wants to focus his attention on his companies. The Tesla CEO is trying to maintain ties with JD Vance, the potential heir to the MAGA movement He is reluctant to alienate powerful Republicans by starting a third party. I’m sure there are a few Tesla shareholders who will be happy to

Goldman Sachs lowered its November/December 2025 US gas price forecast to $4.00/MMBtu from $4.50. It cut its September/October 2025 forecast by $0.55 to $3.35/MMBtu. Goldman maintained its 2026 US gas price forecast at $4.60/MMBtu, well above forwards at $3.81. The bank continues to recommend a long April 2026 US gas position. Goldman’s revisions reflect softer

Japan Machinery Orders YY 7.6% vs 5.0% expected Japan Machinery Orders MM 3.0% vs -1.0% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Japan’s July exports fell 2.6% year-on-year (poll: -2.1%). Imports fell 7.5% year-on-year (poll: -10.4%). The trade balance showed a deficit of ¥117.5 billion (poll: +¥196.2 billion surplus). Exports to Asia slipped 0.2% year-on-year. Exports to China fell 3.5% year-on-year. Exports to the US dropped 10.1% year-on-year. Exports to the EU declined 3.4% year-on-year. This article

People’s Bank of China rate setting: 5-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.50% vs 3.50% expected 1-year at 3% vs. 3% expected In 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) implemented significant reforms to its monetary policy framework to enhance the effectiveness of its policy transmission and better support economic growth. Traditionally, the PBoC utilized multiple

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China’s Wang Yi, after meeting with India’s Modi, said they reached an agreement to restart dialogue mechanisms in various fields. He said under the current international situation, the strategic value of China-India cooperation is more prominent. Both sides should firmly manage differences so border disputes do not affect overall bilateral ties. A new consensus was

Ahead of the RBNZ, below is a quick snapshot of today’s implied volatility support and resistance levels for NZDUSD, EURNZD, NZDJPY and AUDNZD. NZDUSD: 0.59200 (resistance) – 0.58600 (support) EURNZD: 1.98200 (resistance) – 1.96800 (support) NZDJPY: 87.400 (resistance) – 86.500 (support) AUDNZD: 1.09600 (resistance) – 1.09100 (support) These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility

US Treasury Chief Bessent said the US has had very good talks with China. He said the status quo with China is working very well. He expects the US economy to pick up in Q4. He acknowledged there are some distributional problems in the economy. When asked if the trilateral meeting will be in Budapest,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Rubio told Fox News he will work with European allies and non-European countries to build a security guarantee for Ukraine. He said he was in the room when Trump and Putin spoke. Rubio confirmed that Trump suggested to Putin that he meet with Zelenskiy. This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Inflation: July CPI in line, but core rose to 3.1% y/y, driven by sticky services. Goods inflation muted, tariff effects slower than expected. Outlook: PCE inflation seen peaking ~4.5% annualized; year-end ~3% headline, 3.2% core. Risks of inflation staying above target into 2026. Fed vs. markets: Markets price near-certain September cut (~93%). Fed speakers tilted

Firstly, let me start by saying that exhaustion in price action does not mean reversal. On strong momentum moves, the smallest pullback can ‘reset’ fairly quickly, so this is not a fear-mongering update at all, just an observation. Personally, I’m in the buy-and-hold camp when it comes to BTC because I don’t have the appetite

Zelenskiy said Ukraine needs not a pause in war but real peace. He discussed security guarantees with Trump and European leaders. He said he received an important signal from the US on being part of the guarantees and helping to coordinate them. Zelenskiy said the US offered to hold a trilateral meeting as soon as

Today’s Asia-Pacific calendar is another snoozer with very little to get excited about. We have AU Consumer Sentiment which shouldn’t be enough to move the needle. Later during the EU and US overlap we do have CA CPI coming up which could be more interesting. There could be a tradable opportunity if the surprise is

Traders and analysts are looking for a slight drop in headline inflation for July, with YY CPI expected to land at 1.8%, down from 1.9% in June. But the more important core measure (Trim and Median) is expected to stay elevated around 3.1%. This is important, because even though headline is seen drifting lower, the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia Consumer Sentiment Aug 2025: 5.7% vs 0.6% prior Consumer Sentiment Index jumped 5.7% to 98.5, the highest in 3½ years, almost back to positive territory RBA’s third rate cut this year (cash rate now 3.6%) was the main driver of the boost Family finances outlook improved: next 12 months sub-index rose to 106.8 (above

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

NATO Secretary General Rutte said it was a very successful day in Washington. He confirmed that security guarantees were discussed. He added that more details on the guarantees will be discussed in the coming days. Rutte called it a breakthrough that the US will get involved. He noted that the US and some other countries

Commodities like gold, silver and oil are on the back foot this morning as markets digest the weekend’s Trump/Putin meeting. There were no major breakthroughs, no concessions, which means there isn’t a whole lot for markets to get excited about. However, Oil started the week with a gap to the downside, and as the Asia-Pac

The National Hurricane Center said life-threatening surf and rip currents are likely across the US eastern seaboard as Hurricane Erin becomes a very large storm this week. Hurricane Erin is about 155 miles (245 km) east-northeast of Grand Turk Island with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h). Large hurricanes and weather events can

Trump said President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Trump added that the war’s roots go back to Crimea being taken during Obama’s presidency without a shot being fired, and to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. Let’s just hope they say thank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Below is a quick snapshot of today’s implied volatility support and resistance levels for EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: 1.17600 (resistance) – 1.16600 (support) USDJPY: 148.00 (resistance) – 146.400 (support) GBPUSD: 1.36100 (resistance) – 1.3500 (support) These levels are based on 1-month implied volatility and can be used as dynamic and market-based levels of support

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Not any major changes in terms of FX positioning from last week. The EUR remains the biggest net long (stretched above the 80 percentile of the past 52 weeks and looking at net-positioning as a percentage of open interest). In comparison, the GBP is the second largest net short, with markets shifting positioning very rapidly

Singapore Non-Oil Exports YY -4.6% vs -1.8% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

Nikkei bulls will be celebrating this morning as the index hits a new all-time high, and is within striking distance of the 44000 mark. There aren’t many specific catalysts to point to for the move this morning, but always worth keeping the JPY in view when trading the Nikkei. The correlation isn’t perfect, but we

South Korean President Lee ordered preparations for partial, step-by-step implementation of existing inter-Korean agreements, according to Newsis. Keeping peace is truly competent security Inter-Korean relation important Believes courage to take steps to ease tension with North Korea is needed This signals a cautious move toward engagement with North Korea. However, the impact is likely limited

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. A snapshot shows: German DAX, -0.07% France’s CAC, +0.67% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.42% Spain’s Ibex, +0.47% Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.1%. For the trading week shares are closing higher German DAX, +0.81% France’s CAC, +2.33% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.47%. The close for the week is

Trump told Fox news on his way to Alaska to meet with Russia’s Putin If the Putin meeting does not go well, “I would walk” Does not know what would make the meeting a success. Europe is not telling me what to do. Want to see a ceasefire; Won’t be happy if it not today.

US stocks close mixed. Retail Sales solid, but inflation a concern. Putin now lands on US land for summit with Pres. Trump Pres. Trump’s plane lands in Alaska ahead of the meeting with Russians Putin Baker Hughes oil rig count +1 at 412 European indices close the week on a mixed note Trump: If the

The EURUSD is higher in the week but had its shares of ups and downs. Yesterday, the price made a run to the downside, but found support buyers against its rising 200 hour moving average, the underside of the broken trendline, and the high of a swing area. That kept the buyers in play in

As the leaders respective planes land on the tarmac in Alaska, and the world awaits the vision of both leaders on US soil, the US has reportedly readied a suite of options to punish Russia if the talks fail. Including sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil if Putin balks on cease-fire. The hype has been laid

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count stays steady: Oil rig count +1 at 412 Gas rig count -1 at 122 Total rig count unchanged at 539 Crude oil is trading down $0.72 or -1.13% at $63.24.. For the trading week, the price is near unchanged at current levels. The price last week closed at $63.33.

President Trump’s plane has landed in Alaska ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled to begin at 3 PM ET — about 40 minutes from now. Reports indicate the talks could last for hours, meaning any outcomes are unlikely before the U.S. market close. Objective: The primary goal is to find a

U.S. equities ended the session with a mixed performance as investors weighed hopes for peace, hopes for a rate cut, but concerns about inflation continue to weigh as import prices rose sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to avoid finishing in negative territory largely due to a sharp gain in UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump: “We have a very good chance of getting there. We didn’t get there but we have a very good chance of getting there.” We made great progress Just a few points left. One point not agreed to is significant. Very good chance of getting there There is no deal until there is a deal

New Zealand Food Price Index July 2025: +0.7% m/m prior +1.2% for the y/y +5.0% Earlier: New Zealand July manufacturing PMI 52.8 (up from prior 48.8) RBNZ tipped to cut cash rate to 3% as inflation cools and jobless rate hits 4-year high — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of

I posted on the Japanese data earlier: Japan preliminary Q2 GDP +0.3% q/q (expected +0.1%) the fifth consecutive quarter of GDP increase better GDP = less dovish BoJ bias = higher yields, stronger yen. JPY has since gained: USD/JPY is circa 147.60 from early highs above 147.80 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa on GDP: Latest data confirm the economy is recovering modestly. Must remain mindful of risks from US trade policies that could weigh on growth. Rising prices could dampen consumer sentiment and hurt private consumption. Akazawa not going much away with these vanilla type comments. Tariffs do pose a rsik to Japan’s

Standard Chartered has sharply raised its Ethereum price forecasts, lifting its 2025 year-end target from US$4,000 to US$7,500 and its 2028 target from US$7,500 to US$25,000. The bank cited stronger industry conditions, surging corporate treasury demand, and growing institutional participation in staking, DeFi, and infrastructure. The upgrade marks a reversal from March, when the bank

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Greg had the news earlier on the firm. Shares of Intel surged over 7% on Thursday after Bloomberg reported the US government may take an equity stake in the chipmaker. The potential investment would support construction of Intel’s planned Ohio chip complex, a project announced in 2022 with an initial US$20 billion outlay that could

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Crude oil markets are focused on Friday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, with a potential Ukraine ceasefire set to dominate discussions. The war has been seen as a support for oil prices, as ongoing hostilities constrain Russian crude supply to global markets. Brent is little changed here

Japan’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, with stronger business spending and net exports offsetting a drag from inventories. Japan Q2 GDP (Preliminary) GDP SA (Q/Q): 0.3% (est 0.1%; prev 0.0%) GDP Annualised SA (Q/Q): 1.0% (est 0.4%; prev –0.2%) GDP Nominal SA (Q/Q): 1.3% (est 1.4%; prev 0.9%) GDP Deflator (Y/Y): 3.0% (est 3.2%; prev 3.3%)

All China July new home prices -2.8% y/y (June -3.2%) -0.3% m/m (June -0.3%) Reuters calculations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan warns tariffs could shave GDP, lift inflation to post-war highs in scale JP Morgan says US tariffs are likely to deliver a meaningful hit to both economic growth and inflation, as Wall Street economists brace for the bulk of the impact to filter through over coming months. “Tariffs could subtract 1% from GDP and

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO, an intergovernmental organization led by China and Russia) conference will will take place about two weeks after Trump and Putin meet in Alaska. will discuss the war in Ukraine, and also the political rifts opened by the tariffs being imposed by Trump leaders from more than 20 countries, including Putin,

Bitcoin and Ethereum (above US$4700) are still rising. There is no fresh news, but the propsect of Fed rate cuts is helping along almost everything vs. the USD. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

MUFG says political, Fed uncertainty keeping risk premium in USD; carry trades gain MUFG says the US dollar is holding onto a higher risk premium as investors weigh lingering uncertainty over a potential dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s leadership and fresh concerns about political interference in US economic data. The caution comes despite a

The Australian equites market opened higher on Thursday S&P/ASX200 up 55 points, or 0.6%, at 8,879 Gains were broad-based nine of 11 sectors in positive territory financial stocks led the rebound after yesterday’s losses communication services lagging This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sterling hits three-week high as Fed-BOE policy gap supports gains. The pound climbed to its strongest level in nearly three weeks against the US dollar on Thursday, supported by widening interest rate differentials as markets weigh a more dovish Federal Reserve against a cautious Bank of England. Data on Tuesday showed a smaller-than-expected decline in

Employment report from Australia for July 2025 Employment Change a slight miss at +24.5K expected 25K, prior 2K Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.2%, prior 4.3% Full-Time Employment +60.5K, cracking good result! prior -38.2K Part-Time Employment -36K prior 40.2K Participation rate 67.0% expected 67.1%, prior 67.0% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Despite the solid lead from Wall Street Japan’s equity market is under pressure: Nikkei is down around 1% Meanwhile the yen is higher, USD/JPY down to lows circa 146.65 I don’t know if anyone saw it., but Reuters had a piece mid-week about pressure on the Bank of Japan to sort out its concenr that

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales July 2025 +0.2% m/m prior +0.5% +1.7% y/y prior -0.4% NZD/USD is barely moving on this data release. Circa 0.5955. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan benchmark share price indexes, Nikkei and Topix, have both hit all-time highs Follows another stron day on Wall Street: investingLive Americas FX news wrap 12 Aug: CPI rise does not scare the market. *** TOPIX is the Tokyo Price Index covers all domestic companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Japanese data is here from earlier: Japan data – July PPI +0.2% m/m (expected +0.2%) & +2.6% y/y (expected +2.5%) The PPI is also known as the corporate goods price index (CGPI). It measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services. That 2.6% y/y is the fourth straight month of

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Reuters Tankan for August 2025: Manufacturing index +9 vs. +7 in July, marking a second month of improved sentiment transport machinery sector, including autos, posted the strongest gains, climbing to +25 from +9, but is also forecast to retreat in coming months. Non-manufacturing index +24 vs. +30 in July, the first fall for this in

The PPI data comes from the Bank of Japan. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jul) +2.6, higher than expected but down from June expected 2.5%, prior 2.9% Producer Price Index (MoM) (Jul) +0.2%, in line and higher than in June expected 0.2%, prior -0.2% This data is not consumer level inflation, but it feeds into it.

I’ve posted on the tailwinds for Ether before. Ethereum’s price gains are being driven by a powerful mix of regulatory clarity, institutional interest, technical progress, and its expanding role in stablecoins and DeFi. More: Stablecoin growth & regulation tailwinds: Ethereum provides the infrastructure for nearly half of all stablecoins. The GENIUS Act and other U.S.

A note from Morgan Stanley highlight the 3 risks to the stock market rally: Cooling labour market – Recent jobs data showed weaker-than-expected hiring, downward revisions to prior months, and a decline in job openings, suggesting the employment picture may be softening and potentially signalling slower economic growth. Skewed Q2 earnings – While headline earnings

Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q2) 3.4%, higher than the estimate and matching Q1 expected 3.3%, prior 3.4% the Reserve Bank of Australia forecast was 3.3% Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.8%, in line with the estimate and down a tic from Q1 expected 0.8%, prior 0.9% Australia’s Q2 wage data surprised slightly to the upside

Singapore’s economy expanded 4.4% year-on-year in Q2, slightly above the earlier 4.3% estimate, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.4% following a 0.5% contraction in Q1. The Ministry of Trade and Industry upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5–2.5% from 0.0–2.0%, citing stronger-than-expected first-half performance. Non-oil domestic exports are still expected to grow 1.0–3.0% this year,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Greg had this news hours ago, just a formality now Trump extends China tariff deadlines 90 days Trump: Just signed an executive order that will extend tariff suspension on China for another 90 days All other elements of agreement will remain same This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan benchmark share price indexes, Nikkei and Topix, have both hit all-time highs *** TOPIX is the Tokyo Price Index covers all domestic companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) designed to track the overall trend of the Japanese stock market includes over 2,000 companies a free-float adjusted market capitalization-weighted

Singapore central bank chief economist: Reaffirms that policy remains appropriate and Mas is well placed to respond to risks remains appropriate after accounting for factors affecting domestic growth and inflation says that a gradualist approach under conditions of uncertainty is useful as we update our assessment in a timely manner at our quarterly reviews Earlier

China has updated its export control lists, introducing provisions that allow companies to apply for permission to trade with entities currently subject to restrictions. As part of the changes, Beijing has lifted export control measures on 12 US-based entities and indicated it will grant licences to exporters that meet regulatory requirements. Suspends adding some US

HSBC says its economists expect further signs of disinflation to emerge alongside a cooling UK labour market, paving the way for the Bank of England to maintain a steady pace of 25-basis-point rate cuts each quarter until Bank Rate reaches 3.0% by the third quarter of 2026. On the currency front, the bank forecasts sterling

Trump taps EJ Antoni to head BLS, sparking concerns over partisanship and expertise President Trump has nominated EJ Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following Trump’s dismissal of the previous commissioner over job report revisions. The pick has drawn sharp criticism, much of it centred on Antoni’s

National Australia Bank Business Survey for July 2025 Business confidence rises to 7, a three-year high strength in services and construction prior 5 Business conditions fall to 7 prior 9 Some of the sub measures: business sales 11 in July, from 8 prior profitability 2, prior 4 employment 1, from 4 prior quarterly growth in

China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) halted production for at least three months at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province. The suspension, triggered by the expiry of its mining permit on August 9, has fuelled speculation of wider supply cuts as Beijing seeks to curb overcapacity Analysts cautioned the move is unlikely to

The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting today and tomorrow, Monday, August 11, 2025 and Tuesday, August 12, 2025. After last month’s shock decision to hold the cash rate steady in the face of a near unanimous expectation for a rate cut (Deutsche Bank and Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis, were

China’s factory-gate prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were flat, signalling that weak domestic demand and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the economy. The data was published over the weekend, ICYMI: China July data – China’s consumer price inflation flat y/y, but higher than expected m/m Consumer prices were unchanged

We’re open! The new week for US equity index futures has begun: S&P 500 eminis +0.15%, Nasdaq futures +0.2% Earlier news: US equity index futures are about to open – to HUGE news … not in a good way Japan is on Mountain Day holiday today – markets are closed. US bond trade impacted. Reports

The Financial Times has reported that Nvidia and AMD have struck a deal with the US government to hand over 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China, in exchange for export licences for those semiconductors. I posted on this earlier: Reports that Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Bowman was speaking at a bankers’ conference in Colorado Springs, on Saturday. The Wall Street Journal (gated) report: the apparent weakening in the labor market outweighs the risks

I posted the news here from the Financial Times: Reports that Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues to US government More in that article. The gist is: Nvidia and AMD have struck a deal with the US government to hand over 15% of their revenue from chip sales in China,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer met privately with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday to deliver a message: his tariffs were damaging the very automotive industry he has pledged to protect. The conversation marked Whitmer’s third meeting with Trump at the White House since he took office in January. AP carried the report.

Discover the truth on how trading is a get rich slow scheme The post Trading Is A Get Rich Slow Scheme appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Michelle Bowman is a Governor on the Board of the U.S. Federal Reserve and as such has a permanent vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Bowman citied the collapse in the US labour market in her reasoning arguing for three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. The July

China’s consumer prices were flat y/y in July, as government efforts to rein in excessive competition offered some relief from deflationary pressures. Analysts caution that the path out of deflation will be long and may require stronger stimulus measures. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (July) 0.0%, no change from a year earlier, beating forecasts for a

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Putin told US envoy Witkoff he would agree to a cease-fire if Ukraine withdrew forces from all of Ukraine’s Eastern Donestk region. How bad do Ukraine and Russia want peace? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Yesterday in a post, I spoke about the messy AUDUSD chart (see post here). The view has not changed much today. It is still messy. Neverthess, even amongst the ups and downs, the markets will leave little nuggets from the charts that traders can use to defing the bias, the risk and the targets. In

From Bloomberg: The Trump administration suggested it would issue a new policy clarifying that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs, after the government stunned traders by ruling that they would be subject to duties. Comex gold futures surged to a new all-time high earlier in the day, but has since come off. The

PM Carney speaking on the job data released this morning said: Wage growth now outpacing CPI growth The average hourly wages increase by 3.5% versus 3.2% month. However looking at the chart still near the lows going back to the pandemic. Carney also weighed in on Israelis intention to occupy all of Gaza saying: Israel

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Pres. team is expanding the search for the new Fed chair. According to the article: New Fed chair contenders added: Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush adviser Marc Sumerlin have been added to the list of roughly 10 candidates. Other top candidates: Kevin

The EURUSD began its upside move last Friday after finding support at the 100-day moving average, which served as a strong base for buyers. That momentum extended into this week, with the pair breaking above the 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement (1.1558) of the decline from the July high. The bullish move continued

The NASDAQ index led the market higher today and this week, closing at yet another record high and extending to a new intraday high, surpassing the high price from July 31 at 21457.48. The high price today reached 21464.53. The S&P also moved higher but closed just below its prior record high at 6389.77. The

The GBPUSD bottomed this week on Tuesday near 1.32594. The Bank of England on Wednesday cut rates by 25 basis points but it was a hawkish cut as the MPC vote was 5– 4, not as high as the 7-2 expected. The price moved up to the 100 day moving average on Wednesday. On Thursday,

The weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes is showing: Oil rig +1 at 411 Gasoline -1 at 123 Total rigs -1 at 539 The price of oil is trading is trading up $0.10 at $63.98. The price remains below its 100 day moving average at $64.89 keeping bearish bias versus the daily moving averages

Putin would agree to cease-fire if Ukraine ceded Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea NASDAQ index closes at a new record high and also makes a new intraday high today Trumps team is expanding the search for the Fed Chair White House to clarify misinformation on gold tariffs Canada’s Carney: Pressed on jobs data said wage growth

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

S&P Global sees tariffs slowing 2025 oil demand growth Despite avoiding a major global recession, higher tariffs are expected to slow world oil demand sharply in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The group now forecasts demand growth of 635,000 barrels a day — less than half the 1.3 million b/d projected before U.S.

Bank of Japan July meeting ‘Summary of Opinions’. At this meeting the Bank left its short term rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Headlines via Reuters: One member said BoJ likely to continue raising rates if economy, prices move in line with its forecast One member said given high uncertainty on whether BoJ’s forecast materialises,

Japanese trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa said the U.S. has agreed to correct a presidential order on tariffs and refund any excess duties collected in error. Speaking in Washington after talks with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Akazawa stressed there was no disagreement between the two countries over reciprocal tariffs. Under the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

All 40 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at its August 12 meeting, following softer inflation and labour market data. Headline inflation fell to 2.1% last quarter — near the bottom of the RBA’s 2–3% target range — while

The Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary (post is here) revealed a wide range of views among policymakers on the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes, with members weighing persistent inflation pressures against uncertainty from trade policy and the global economy. USD/JPY popped up a little on the release. As a recap: Several

Japan data – June Household Spending +1.3% y/y expected +2.6%, prior +4.7% -5.2% m/m expected -3.0%, prior +4.6% Still to come from Japan today is the ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the Bank of Japan July 30-31 meeting: Economic calendar in Asia 08 August 2025 – we hear more from the Bank of Japan The Bank

SMIC says demand still outpacing supply, rush orders set to ease The head of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) said current demand for its products continues to exceed available supply. Speaking on Friday, the CEO noted that the wave of rush orders and accelerated shipments seen in recent months is expected to slow in the

Akazawa with the positive vibes (I hope he got it in writing this time!): Japanese trade envoy Akazawa reckons he’s made progress in US trade talks (gets a refund!) The Nikkei has responded with a jump higher. JPY is slipiing, its around 147.30 or so, also helping the Nikkei along. This article was written by

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Q2 EPS: Reported EPS: $3.14 Adjusted EPS (ex-items): $3.19 (vs. $3.14 est.) Revenue: $6.84B (vs. ~$6.7B est.) +5% y/y Global Comparable Sales: +3.8% (vs. +2.6% est.) U.S. Same-Store Sales: +2.5% (vs. -0.7% y/y) Profit: Net income rose 11% y/y to $2.25B — Apart from the company news, there is a macro angle to this. This

The Bank of England is expected to cut its key interest rate from 4.25% to 4.0% on Thursday—its fifth reduction since August 2024. The move comes as the central bank faces conflicting pressures: a weakening labour market, partly worsened by recent tax hikes and Trump trade tensions, versus persistent inflation running above target. While Governor

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the U.S. is not rushing to impose additional tariffs on China over its purchases of Russian oil, despite having just raised duties on Indian imports for the same reason. Responding to questions about whether Beijing would face secondary tariffs similar to those announced for India, Navarro noted that

Further reports of Trump to slam an extra 15% tariff on ALL Japan imports. Asahi newspaper citing White House official: U.S. to add 15% tariff on all Japanese imports U.S. will not apply exceptions to Japan for products that already have tariffs exceeding 15% – In summary, Japan had expected items currently tariffed at <

Here’s the summary of the insanity: Trump says he’ll hammer chip / semiconductor imports with a 100% tariff With me so far? Good. Trump then says that he’ll exempt firms investing, or even intending to invest, in US manufacturing from the massive tariff Following along OK? Good, here’s the earlier post on this: Trump’s 100%

I’ve done much posting on this, so not gonna repeat myself. Here: There are some reports that Trump is going to hit Japan with an extra 15% tariff, yen hit Yen has stabilised after massive news that Trump could slam Japan with extra 15% tariff That yen stability didn’t last: Further reports of Trump to

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said the oil market is returning to a more balanced dynamic, with global demand expected to grow by around 1% this year and again in 2026. Auchincloss was speaking in a CNBC interview. His view, while broadly aligned with consensus forecasts, came with an important but underappreciated implication: non-OPEC supply growth

Trade data from Australia for June 2025. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ethereum Futures Technical Analysis with tradeCompass – August 6, 2025 At the time of this analysis, Ethereum futures (ETH) are trading at $3,588, exactly flat from yesterday’s close. According to today’s tradeCompass, we enter bearish territory below $3,615, while a bullish breakout requires a sustained move above $3,655. Given that price is already under the

Deutsche Bank expects a further divergence in the near-term paths of Europe’s two major central banks, forecasting another rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) this week (the Bank meet Thursday) while suggesting the European Central Bank (ECB) may now be finished with its own easing cycle. In a note to clients, Deutsche Bank

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Technical Analysis with tradeCompass (August 6, 2025) The tradeCompass snapshot Current Price: 4.216% Bullish above: 4.230 Bearish below: 4.224 Primary Bias: Bearish (at the time of analysis) 10-Year Yield Partial Profit Targets: For Bears (if and when bearish threshold is activated): 4.207 – just above yesterday’s Value Area Low 4.194 –

Japan Labour Market Data – June Nominal Cash Earnings (y/y): +2.5% (vs. +3.1% expected; prior +1.0%; revised prior +1.4%) Real Cash Earnings (y/y): –1.3% … this is the sixth straight month of decline (vs. –0.7% expected; prior –2.9%; unrevised) Cash Earnings – Same Sample Base (y/y): +3.0% (vs. +3.5% expected; prior +2.3%; revised prior +2.1%)

HSBC is warning of renewed downside pressure on the Japanese yen in the near term, citing a combination of U.S. monetary policy risks, domestic political uncertainty, and cautiousness from the Bank of Japan. While HSBC economists believe the BoJ’s recent upward revisions to its inflation and growth forecasts strengthen the case for a 25 basis

New Zealand’s labour market remained soft in Q2, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its August policy meeting. Earlier: New Zealand Q2 Unemployment rate 5.2% (vs. expected 5.3%) The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.2%, up from 5.1% in Q1, while employment

UBS says the Australian dollar is well-positioned to benefit from a broad rotation out of the U.S. dollar, with strategists identifying the AUD/USD as an attractive long opportunity at current levels. The recent rebound in the greenback dragged the pair down from a nine-month high near 0.66 to just below 0.6430. While AUD/USD has since

Via the Kansas City Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern. In a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Australia S&P Global July final services PMI comes in at a much improved 54.1 June was 51.8 Composite 53.8 June was 51.6 — Australia’s services sector saw stronger growth in July, marking a solid start to the second half of 2025, according to S&P Global. New business rose sharply, and export demand stabilised after four

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report: fear a decline in the world-leading economic statistics underpinning U.S. markets In brief: Banks have fielded calls from clients, anxious that they may need to rethink how they invest if inflation and employment statistics tied to U.S. investments can’t be trusted. Some worry that the firing marks

There are a few reports on Société Générale’s view doing the rounds. 2026 index could reach 6,900 by year-end a potential range of 6,500-7,250 if re-rating occurs in a rate-cutting environment say rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could push the index above 7500 in 2026 and into bubble territory SG cite positive impacts from:

New Zealand ANZ World Commodity Price Index, July 2025 -1.8% m/m prior -2.4% ANZ cite lower dairy product prices weighed +10.7% y/y, ANZ say supported by higher dairy and red meat prices The NZD Commodity Price Index fell 1.2% m/m on a stronger currency. As part of the report, ANZ discuss Global shipping prices generally

Trump will be on CNBC Squawk Box Tuesday 8am US time – pre mkt. You don’t need me to tell you he ain’t gonna be bearish, right? — CNBC’s Squawk Box is a live, weekday morning program focused on pre-market financial news, market analysis, and interviews with investors, CEOs, and policymakers. It airs from 6–9

Japan Jibun bank Services PMI for July 2025 53.6, expanded at its fastest pace in five months flash 53.5, prior 51.7 improvement was driven by strong domestic demand, which more than offset a sharp drop in export orders and weaker tourist numbers new domestic business orders grew at the quickest pace in three months export

Japan trade negotiator Akazawa plans to visit U.S. from Tuesday To push U.S. to give order to take auto tariff to take effect as soon as possible One of purposes of U.S. visit is to confirm details of the latest tariff agreement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan June 2025 meeting minutes, full text. The June meeting minutes have been dated by the July meeting. Headlines via Reuters: Many members said inflation somewhat overshooting forecast but must scrutinise economic developments due to downside risk to growth from US tariff policy One member said must support economy with current rate level

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Goldman Sachs is holding its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 steady at $56 per barrel, despite the recent production increase announced by OPEC+. The bank expects the oil-producing alliance to pause any further supply hikes, citing a build-up in OECD oil stockpiles as a key factor that could temper the group’s willingness to raise

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

China is restricting the supply of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, creating production delays and driving up costs across the U.S. defense sector. These minerals — essential for everything from bullets to advanced weapons systems — are increasingly difficult to source as firms scramble to find non-Chinese alternatives. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carry

J.P. Morgan’s North America Economic Research team has raised alarm over the dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, warning that it risks undermining the integrity of U.S. economic data and, by extension, the conduct of monetary policy and financial stability. In a note titled “Concerning News from the BLS,” the bank