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Fed’s Collins Says High Bar for Further Rate Cuts as Inflation Risks Persist Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins signalled a more cautious stance on monetary easing, saying it will likely be appropriate to keep interest rates on hold “for some time” as policymakers assess elevated inflation and an uncertain labour-market outlook. Collins, who supported […]

I can’t imagine that a ruling on Cook is a super-high priority for the Supreme Court so it’s likely she will still have the job until mid-2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

More from Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic (nonvoting member who will resign from his position in 2026). Firms are time the Fed that policy is restrictive particularly in housing and other rate sensitive industries There is a debate about the extent to which productivity is rising This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Government shutdown will impact this quarter GDP Supply-side policies will allow growth that inflation. Agreed with previous to Fed meeting said it was time to cut rates. If I am at FOMC, are more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell is less likely. Fed more likely to do 25 basis point cut. If

Fundamental Overview The USD remains weak across the board as market participants now await the key US data releases with the government shutdown expected to end this week. Yesterday, we saw some more weakness following soft weekly ADP data that showed job losses in the second half of October. The initial weakness didn’t hold though

Fed’s Miran is speaking and said: Fed policy is to restrictive Yesterday Miran spoke on CNBC and said that inflation data is becoming stale and continues to move lower, with evidence since September suggesting the Fed should be more dovish than its earlier stance. He argued that policy should be forward-looking rather than reactive, noting

RBC is out with its latest consumer spending tracker for Canada and reports on a second strong month. Three month average of core retail sales +0.5% m/m vs +0.7% in Sept Most of October’s spending strength came from entertainment and arts Almost all of the increase in entertainment and arts spending came from Ontario, which

The UK’s FTSE 100 and Spain’s Ibex closed at record levels once again. Italy’s FTSE MIB close at its highest level since 2000. All the major indices in Europe or higher on the day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +1.22% France’s CAC, +1.04% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.12% Spain’s Ibex +1.39% Italy’s

In the post and video from yesterday (see: Nvidia Technicals: Nvidia is down sharply. What has done to the technicals?“), I pointed out that the price of Nvidia moved below the 50 and 100 hour MA, tilting the bias to the downside today, the price opened higher. At the open today, the price of Nvidia

When reserves reach ample levels, gradual bond buying will begin again Renewed balance sheet expansion is technical, not monetary policy Says he is closely watching markets for liquidity signals Standing repo facility can be used without stigma I don’t see any signal here for markets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

That’s a soft sale. 0.8 bps tail Bid to cover 2.43 vs 2.48 prior That should stop today’s rally in its tracks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $42 billion of 10 year notes at 1 PM ET. The results of the auction will be compared to the 6 month averages of the major components, and could impact the price of treasuries/yields. Stronger demand leads to lower yields generally speaking. The six-month averages of the major components

Bitcoin is under some solid pressure and I see that as a bad omen for the rest of the risk complex. Bitcoin started the day nicely after some late selling yesterday. It bounced to $105,600 and that’s where it traded early in New York hours but it’s since come under some real pressure and is

Bostic will retire at the end of his five-year term on January 28. They will appoint a committee to find a replacement. Atlanta gets a vote in 2027. The Fed’s Paulson also just published remarks but she doesn’t speak about monetary policy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures +0.4% French CAC 40 futures +0.3% UK FTSE futures flat This comes after the more solid showing yesterday, with Wall Street also seeing a rotation out of tech with the Dow posting a record close while the Nasdaq slumped lower. The latter owes much to a decline in Nvidia, with this news

The AUDUSD is trading up and down this week. Today, the buyers made a play but the momentum stalled. More specifically, the AUDUSD tested and broke above the 100-day moving average twice today, marking a shift from Monday and Tuesday when price action consistently stalled near that same level. The 100-day MA currently sits at

Recent inflation driven by food prices, could hurt the economy Will work closely with BOJ to ensure Japan sees inflation driven by wages Hopes for BOJ to conduct policy so that Japan sees sustainable achievement of price target With the wrong policies, there is a risk Japan can slide back into deflation And that will

As she embarks on her fiscal path to push forward with big stimulus and spending, Sanae Takaichi wants the BOJ to keep interest rates as they are for as long as possible. And that begins with the next decision in December. She has made it relatively clear in her not so subtle remarks including the

IN the kickstart video, I spoke about the EURUSD having resistance against the 1.1594 level, then support against the rising 100 hour moving average. The US session did moved to new session lows and in the process tested the rising 100 hour moving average where buyers leaned, stalled the fall and pushed the price back

Gold is at the highs of the day in an impressive run. it’s up $66 to $4191 after starting the US trading day flat. At current levels, gold is testing some important resistance in the form of the $4200 big figure but also the 61.8% retracement of the late-October drop. This article was written by

Rotation. Rotation. Rotation. That is how the day is ending as the dust settled. The money flowed into the bricks and mortar stocks in the Dow 30. The losers were the technology stocks of the Nasdaq. The Dow 30 stocks were led by: Merck & Co (MRK) +4.84% Amgen (AMGN) +4.57% Nike (NKE) +3.87% Johnson

The GBPUSD moved lower earlier today after the expected employment data. The decline saw the price move back below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid-October high at 1.31422, but find support buyers near the converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 1.3119. The price bounced back above the 38.2% retracement

The USDCHF has moved lower this week — reflecting a stronger Swiss franc — following reports that the U.S. and Switzerland are nearing an agreement to reduce tariffs on Swiss imports to the U.S. from 39% to 15%. Back in August, the Trump administration unexpectedly imposed the steep 39% rate in response to what it

Bostic announced his retirement this year and he isn’t a voter but it sounds like he’s going to advocate for leaving rates unchanged in December. Sees more urgent risks to price stability despite shifts in labor market Favors keeping Fed funds steady until we see clear evidence of inflation moving towards 2% target Atlanta Fed

Fed divisions deepen as policymakers split on inflation versus jobs. Info via the Wall Street Journal, in brief: The Federal Reserve’s once-united front on policy direction has fractured, with officials increasingly divided over whether stubborn inflation or a weakening labour market poses the greater threat to the economy — a split without much precedent under

OPEC is out with its monthly report and sees a marginal surplus of 20k bpd next year, assuming it keeps pumping at the October level. That contrasts with last month’s report that had a deficit of 50k bpd and the Sept report at -700k bpd. OPEC hiked production quotas by 137k bpd in each of

Market index 334.2 vs 332.3 prior Purchase index 172.7 vs 163.3 prior Refinance index 1247.5 vs 1290.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.34% vs 6.31% prior This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD remains weak across the board as market participants now await the key US data releases with the government shutdown expected to end this week. Yesterday, we saw some more weakness following soft weekly ADP data that showed job losses in the second half of October. The initial weakness didn’t hold though

China is designing a new export-licensing system that would allow it to fast-track shipments of rare-earth magnets and other sensitive materials to civilian buyers while blocking access to companies linked to the U.S. military. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carried the latest on this. In brief: According to people familiar with the plan, Beijing’s “validated

Australian data Australia Home Loans Value Q3 +9.6% q/q, fastest rise since Q1 2021 expected +2.6%, prior +2.0% Owner-Occupier Loan Value +4.7% q/q prior +2.4% Investor Loan Value +17.6% q/q prior +1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is higher vs all the major currencies with gains of 0.05% (vs CAD and EUR) up to 0.38% (vs the JPY). Most of the changes are between 0.05% and 0.20%, so there is not huge moves. In the video above, I take a look at 3 of the major currency pairs – the

Chinese banks reportedly issuing ‘phantom loans’ to hit targets amid weak economy Chinese banks are reportedly resorting to “quick-lend-and-recover” tactics to meet government-mandated lending quotas as real-world demand for credit falters in the slowing economy. According to bankers, this practice involves issuing short-term loans, only to reclaim them weeks later. The strategy helps banks meet

Prior was -1.2% Total value of building permits at $11.7 billion Residential +4.8% Non-residential +4.0% Q3 permits down -5.4% There has been a slow, steady decline in inflation-adjusted building permits since 2020. In the latest budget, the Federal Government splurged on spending for capital projects but that’s going to take awhile to get into the

What you know as a trader is an advantage. For the USDCAD what I know is that this week, there has been willing buyers at the 1.4000 area (up to 1.4007). Lows on Monday, Tuesday and again today has come in against that level/area. Knowing that allows traders to define a bias (above and the

The drop earlier at the tail end of Asia trading saw price briefly nudge under $4,100. However, that downside shove was a brief one with dip buyers coming in again around the figure level as they did yesterday. That’s starting to see a bit of a line in the sand for gold in trading this

McDonald’s warns SNAP disruptions may hit low-income diners as shutdown drags on Info via Dow Jones/Market Watch. McDonald’s has warned that the partial freeze in U.S. food assistance payments is adding strain on low-income consumers, as the government shutdown continues to disrupt Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits across the country. Speaking on the company’s

The prop trading industry has long relied on traders paying upfront fees to access capital, while firms profit regardless of traders’ success. PropFunding.com is overturning this dynamic by replacing challenge fees with data-driven funding and transparent incentives—a model that could reshape the economics of prop trading. Rethinking Incentives in the Prop Space Traditional prop firms

He Lifeng was appointed to lead US trade negotiations in May. He made the comments in Xinhua and that suggests he sees a period of stability in the US relationship, though no one really knows with Trump. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Colder weather forecasts have boosted US natural gas prices to some of the best levels since the 2023 spike but there could be more to come. Natty is up 5% today but it’s one of the few things directly touching the AI investment supercycle that hasn’t spiked. It certainly could and demand for power isn’t

How Solitics’ AI Expert is turning campaign ideation into measurable impact in minutes, not weeks. In the FX space, relevance is currency, and time is the cost of staying competitive. Yet despite rising investments in marketing technology, many brokers still struggle with a fundamental gap: the distance between what they want to do and how

Trump to revive offshore drilling in California, Alaska and Gulf in major policy reversal Info via a Wall Street Journal (gated) report. The Trump administration is preparing to unveil a sweeping proposal to allow oil drilling off the California coast, as well as in federal waters near Alaska and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, according

Sector Overview: Mixed Fortunes Across the Heatmap Today’s stock market heatmap paints a varied picture with sectors showing divergent paths. The technology sector exhibits a slight uptick, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks. AMD leads with a rise of 7.11%, and NVDA contributes a 0.9% gain, suggesting investor confidence in chip makers despite broader concerns.

Goldman Sachs is out with its latest jobs growth tracker and it shows a decline of 50K jobs. Compound that with the Challenger numbers this week, today’s ADP reading and there is a compelling case for some weakness in the month. That said, a big portion of Goldman’s modelled decline in jobs is due to

Goldman Sachs has postponed its forecast for China’s next round of monetary easing, citing a more restrained tone from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and a stronger focus on currency stability and structural reforms. The bank now expects a 10bp policy rate cut and 50bp reserve ratio cut in Q1 2026, instead of late

It will take some time to get US economic data back on track but at least this will restart the close. The vote is a formality as Republicans have a majority and this one only needs a simple majority. Surely Trump will sign the bill shortly afterwards. The bill only opens the government until Jan

Crude oil is settling at $61.04 that’s up $0.91 to 1.5`%. The high price today reached $61.28. The low price was at $59.66. Looking at the hourly chart, the price initially moved to the downside, but found support near the low of a swing area between $59.58 and $60.17. The subsequent rise took the price

Unlike the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which break records almost every week, oil has been struggling. Since January 1, the price of Brent crude has dropped nearly 15%. Not even new sanctions on Russian oil companies or the threat of a U.S. military operation in Venezuela from Trump have been enough to push oil prices

French save a lot because they worry about public deficit Uncertainties – both domestic and international – have a 0.5% impact on GDP This was a good narrative after the Olympics last year but not so much one year later today. The French economy is on a downtrend, as evident by the latest PMI figures

Institutional investors turn more cautious as State Street risk gauge slips to neutral A closely watched measure of global risk appetite from State Street eased to a neutral reading in October, as institutional investors shifted toward defensive sectors despite global equities hitting fresh highs. State Street Markets said its Risk Appetite Index, based on real

Nomura bucks consensus, sees Fed holding steady in December Nomura now expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its December 9–10 meeting, arguing that recent indicators still point to a resilient labour market despite the government shutdown’s disruption to official data releases. In a note to clients, the bank said Chair Jerome

Fundamental Overview The USD remains weak across the board as market participants now await the key US data releases with the government shutdown expected to end this week. Yesterday, we saw some more weakness following soft weekly ADP data that showed job losses in the second half of October. The weakness didn’t hold though as

Headlines: USD/JPY nears 155 mark as Takaichi tries to bend BOJ to her will USDJPY Technical Analysis: Verbal intervention isn’t stopping the bearish yen trend Japan prime minister Takaichi: We cannot say that Japan has emerged from deflation Japan prime minister Takaichi: Appropriate monetary policy is very important Japan finance minister Katayama: It is important

RBA’s Hauser says policy likely still restrictive, debate underway inside board Info via Reuters interview: Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the central bank’s “best guess” is that monetary policy remains restrictive, but noted there is active debate within the RBA board about that assessment, signalling a live discussion over how much

Xi, Spanish King pledge to deepen strategic partnership Chinese President Xi Jinping and Spain’s King Felipe VI oversaw a document-signing ceremony in Beijing on Tuesday, reaffirming their commitment to strengthening bilateral ties, state broadcaster CCTV reported. During the meeting, Xi said China is willing to work with Spain to build a “more steady” comprehensive strategic

Prior +2.4% HICP +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% Core annual inflation is reaffirmed at 2.8%, keeping the same as it was in September. That is still on the high side and is what is keeping the ECB on its toes with policy setting for the moment. This article was written by Justin Low

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of ECB speakers who are going to repeat the same old stuff. In the American session, we just have the BoC Meeting Minutes which are rarely a market-moving release. We will also hear from many Fed members but it’s unlikely

Fed Governor Barr spoke on AI and innovation at a conference in Singapore. No comment on monetary policy or economic outlook in his prepared remarks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JP Morgan continues to underscore the vulnerabilities of the Japanese yen currency, in saying that a push above 154.35-50 could quickly see USD/JPY run up towards another test of the 155 mark. And in turn, that could trigger fresh verbal intervention from Tokyo. Well, that’s something we’re already seeing here earlier today. But as for

Global reserve managers are quietly diversifying away from the U.S. dollar—but not toward the traditional major currencies that once shared the stage. According to Standard Chartered, recent IMF data show that central banks and sovereign funds have been shifting allocations into a broader mix of smaller G-10 and emerging-market currencies rather than the euro, sterling

Japan’s bond yields surge to crisis-era highs: what it means and why it matters Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has hit levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and its 40-year yield is near its all-time high, this is being read as signalling the end of a multi-decade financial era. his isn’t just a

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.7% France CAC 40 +0.4% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% And so the party rages on as regional equities continue with the more positive run after a brief setback from last Friday. The more optimistic mood is helped by gains in US futures today as well,

Trump says he will lower some tariffs on coffee. I’m not sure what venue Trump is speaking from. This wasn;t from a social media post. Here we go, it was an interview with Fox. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Will closely coordinate with the BOJ to achieve economic growth Monetary policy needs to aligned with goals for the economy, stable prices Will ask Ueda for regular reports at council meetings She’s continuing her subtle – or perhaps not so subtle – attack at the BOJ in wanting the central bank to play ball with

China’s Xi and Spain’s King vow deeper ties, citing a trusted strategic partnership Chinese state media is paying out on Japan PM Takaichi, “spewing sh*t” Huawei gains state backing as chip shortages worsen under U.S. curbs Fed’s Barr speech in Singapore – no comment on monetary policy or his economic outlook RBA’s Hauser says policy

There’s a positive underlying momentum in the economy Food price inflation is still strong I’m still seeing stickiness in services inflation (came down from 4% but still above 3%) Inflation risks are tilted a little bit to the upside Can tolerate small deviations from inflation target in either directions (repeated by most ECB members) The

Goldman Sachs expects first U.S. job loss since 2020 as labor market cools Goldman Sachs economists expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to have declined by around 50,000 in October, marking what would be the first monthly job loss since late 2020, as signs mount that the labor market is losing steam. In a note released Monday,

Gold has caught a bid again after weaker US jobs data on Tuesday investingLive Americas market news wrap: Weekly ADP employment cools The expectation is that the cooling jobs data ratchets up the chance of a Fed rate cut. Gold caught a bid. Checking out the chart you can see a clear top just above

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

UBS: Fed easing, profits and AI spending to keep U.S. stocks climbing UBS says U.S. equities still have further to run, underpinned by the Federal Reserve’s policy easing, strong corporate earnings, and surging investment in artificial intelligence. The bank sees the S&P 500 reaching 7,300 by June 2026, expecting the combination of looser monetary policy

Reuters November Tankan – Japanese factory mood hits 4-year high on weak yen, auto rebound Japan’s manufacturers grew the most upbeat in nearly four years this month, lifted by a softer yen and solid global demand for cars and electronics, according to the November Reuters Tankan survey. The manufacturers’ sentiment index jumped to +17 in

Recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves in the currency No comment on specific forex levels But important for currency to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Closely watching FX moves with high sense of urgency Weak yen contributing to cost-driven inflation to some extent Won’t deny that disadvantages of weak yen outweighs the advantages Some verbal

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. That sits close by to the 100-hour moving average, seen at 1.1555 currently, so the expiries could help to keep a floor on price action as we navigate through European

Beijing steers scarce chips toward Huawei as U.S. export curbs tighten China has reportedly ordered Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) to prioritise Huawei’s access to scarce advanced chips, tightening control over limited production amid a worsening shortage triggered by U.S. export bans. The move has intensified competition for domestic capacity, with AI startups delaying projects

On Friday Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggested that if China attacked Taiwan then Japan could respond with its own self-defence force. “If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation,” said Takaichi Under Japan’s 2015 security legislation, a “survival-threatening situation”

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones is speaking at the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Conference, Broadbeach It’s a ‘Fireside Chat’ format. The RBA has not published a text, and only the odd comment is crossing the wires, not a lot to go on: says markets underpricing geopolitical risks;

White House weighs curbs on proxy advisers, index-fund voting power Info via a Wall Street Journal (gated) report: The White House is considering an executive order that could limit the influence of proxy-advisory firms and curb how major index-fund managers vote, marking a potential overhaul of the U.S. corporate governance system. According to people familiar

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

ADP weekly US employment -11,250 Hassett: Trajectory for inflation is really good Goldman Sachs is getting more cautious on October jobs numbers US October NFIB small business optimism index 98.2 vs 98.3 expected Markets: Gold up $13 to $4129 WTI crude oil up 81-cents to $60.94 S&P 500 up 0.2% CHF leads, GBP lags US

The EURUSD is dipping below the high of the swing area and the 61.8% of the move down from the end of October high near 1.1592. That puts the price within the swing area down to 1.15765 (see post from earlier). There is a bit of a disappointment for the buyers on the break higher

The Reuters Tankan for Japan is not listed in the screenshot, but its due at 2300 GMT / 1800 US Eastern time. Japan’s economy is throwing mixed signals, but generally seems improving. Eyes on this from Reuters today. The Reuters Tankan Index provides a monthly snapshot assessing Japanese business sentiment ahead of the Bank of

Bitcoin has been something of a leading indicator for risk trades lately. It’s at the lows of the day, down 2.7% on a day when the Nasdaq is down just 0.2%. Now there is a tighter correlation with chipmakers, which are struggling today so it’s not a screaming red flag but it’s certainly a warning

The S&P 500 touched an eight-day high as earlier gains reversed. The index is up 0.2% after earlier falling to 6808. Last was at 6844. Tech remains a drag with the Nasdaq down 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a record high. The US bond market is closed today but futures how yields

Current interest rate level is appropriate The majority of ECB members have been repeating this exact same comment for several weeks. The ECB has ended its cutting cycle in June 2025 and it’s now just monitoring the economic developments. They have also said many times that they won’t respond to small or short-term devitations from

The major European indices are closing with a solid gains led by Spain’s Ibex, and Italy’s FTSE MIB and France’s CAC. The FTSE 100, and Spain’s Ibex closed at record levels again. The Italy’s FTSE MIB close that the lowest level going back to 2000 (its kind of amazing that the Italy’s FTSE MIB was

This is a bit out of left field but this really resonated with me: If you’ve been reading me for awhile, you’ll know that I’m a relentless, unapologetic and deliberate optimist. I think it’s the only way to make money in markets. But I can’t shake the nagging feeling that we’re very late in the

The Nasdaq index moved to a low for the day at 23315.28. That took the price down -211.90 at session lows. The price has rebounded off that low, and currently trades at 23392 (the price just traded to 23420). At that corrective high, the price tested the 100 hour and 50 hour MA (blue and

White House looking at housing and how to make people’s lives more affordable We will be back at a 3 or 4% growth pace by early next year The US is going to have very meagre economic growth this year but there will be some giveback to the lockdown that spills into Q1. Part of

To keep liquidity ample The external situation remains unstable and uncertain China’s economy is facing many risks, challenges Need to consolidate the economic recovery To strengthen transmission of monetary policy To maintain prices at a reasonable level Will stabilise growth, jobs, expectations; maintain forex flexibility To increase efforts to support consumption, tech innovation There’s nothing

Bipartisan Senate bill seeks to shift crypto oversight from SEC to CFTC Bloomberg carried the report, in summary: Two U.S. senators unveiled a bipartisan draft bill that would transfer primary oversight of the cryptocurrency industry from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a regulatory shift long sought by

Nvidia shares are down about 3% today after surging 5.79% yesterday, a move that highlights just how volatile the stock has been near its all-time highs. The rebound yesterday followed several weeks of sharp declines, giving traders a brief sense of relief and tilting the short-term bias back to the upside. However, today’s gap lower

Expectations show not much will happen in the next months It’s important to be able to react Same old here from Kocher who’s been reiterating his neutral stance on policy. The Eurozone data has been supporting his stance with very good PMIs and 2.4% core inflation rate. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Warren Buffett is one of all-time when it comes to long-term investors but certainly the great when it comes to share wisdom about markets. In his final thoughts in his final letter — published today — he instead shares some wisdom on life. One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about

There may be precautionary saving Households inflation expectations are at the very top of what we can explain Today’s wage data is good news as a bit lower than expected Wage settlements data for next year from surveys is higher than we would like to see There are uncertainties around the domestic economy I am

Oil is the big winner today in capital markets as WTI crude rises nearly 2% on a day with most assets trading lower. Eyes are on Russian crude as we get mixed signals. India seems to be truly cutting off Russia oil and the US continues to hammer away at European and Turkish buyers, trying

The US treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to 6 month average of the major components to determine if the auction is supported by investors or not. Bid to cover: 2.58X Tail -0.0 bps Dealers 13.8% Directs 23.9% Indirects

The USD is mixed to start the North American session. The dollar is lower versus the EUR (-0.13%), CHF (-0.42%), NZD (-0.12%) and higher vs the JPY (+0.04%), GBP (+0.16%), CAD (0.06%) and AUD (+0.17%). Yesterday, the Republican-led Senate passed a spending package late Monday to end the record-long government shutdown, with an approval vote

Goldman Sachs notes that while USD/JPY is climbing back towards 155 and the highest levels since the start of the year, the usual triggers for any intervention from Tokyo are yet to materialise. That being any rapid, disorderly move in the currency and/or any material clear fundamental dislocation. The firm argues that further yen weakness

Veterans Day is November 11, its a federal holiday in the US. The two major U.S. stock markets, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, will be open. US bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the trade group that represents the bond community, it issues holiday recommendations based on

In technical analysis, traders often talk about price “sustaining” above or below a threshold, “recapturing” a level, or “basing” around it. We occassionally refer to that within our propietary tradeCompass trading methodology. These terms describe the same underlying idea: Confirmation that the market has genuinely accepted a price zone, not just pierced it briefly. The

Tesla’s China sales slump to three-year low as demand falters Tesla’s China sales tumbled to 26,006 vehicles in October, their lowest level in three years, highlighting weakening demand in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. The total was down 35.8% from a year earlier and far below September’s 71,525 units, when Tesla began deliveries

The good news is that the US government shutdown is in its final stages and is likely to wrap up on Wednesday. The bad news is that it will take awhile to get back on track with economic data, with some reports being delayed until close to year end. Even worse is that this vote

Prior 4.8% Employment change -22k vs 0k expected Prior 91k Average weekly earnings +4.8% vs +5.0% 3m/y expected Prior +5.0% Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.6% vs +4.6% 3m/y expected Prior +4.7% October payrolls change -32k Prior -10; revised to -32k That’s a soft report all around with October payrolls falling while the jobless rate

The weekly data from ADP is turning into a market mover. The initial report showed a healthy +14,250 jobs but skip ahead two weeks (it wasn’t released last week) and it’s now showing a drop of 11,250K per week on average for the past four weeks. That should translate into a poor reading, though ADP

The USDCHF is the weakest of the major currency pairs today, reflecting a stronger Swiss franc. The move follows reports that the U.S. and Switzerland may soon announce a trade deal that would cut tariffs from 39% to 15%, spurring fresh selling in the pair. Recall that President Trump unexpectedly raised tariffs on Swiss imports

FOMO is kicking in to stocks. The S&P 500 dipped in the mid-morning but have stormed back to session highs. The index is now up 1.4%. The big tech names are leading the way: NVDA +4.7% GOOG +3.5% MSFT +1.5% AMD +5.1% MU +7.1% TSLA +3.9% AMZN +1.7% PLTR +9.1% This article was written by

Knowing the technical levels in play is key to traders success. In the video above, I outline the key technical levels in play for the USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD given the price action and applying key technical tools that lots of traders follow. Those tools tell a story – or bias (who is in control

German DAX futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.6% UK stocks can be happy with the softer labour market report moments ago, buffing up BOE rate cut expectations. As for the general market mood, it’s a bit of a balance today after the gains from yesterday. US futures are marginally lower as investors continue to weigh

Prior 98.8 Full report here This is not a market-moving report. The data is basically in line with expectations. The agency said: “The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remained above its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index fell 12 points from September to 88, the lowest

Today’s stock market heatmap paints a vivid picture of diverging sectors, with tech cooling off while energy sees rising momentum. Utilized by market participants for sector analysis, the heatmap highlights the day’s trends, sentiments, and major movers across the US stock market. 📉 Technology Sector: Cooling Off The technology sector experienced a notable retreat with

Australia November Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index jumps 12.8% to 103.8 I’m awaiting some details on this. What a bizarre result. Here we go: consumer sentiment turned optimistic in November for the first time in almost four years surged 12.8% to 103.8 in November, a seven-year high (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period) optimists outnumbered pessimists

U.S. and Switzerland move toward tariff deal as Trump signals rate cut. ICYMI, news from Monday US time. The United States and Switzerland are negotiating a deal to reduce the 39% tariff Washington imposed on Swiss imports in August, President Donald Trump confirmed Monday, saying discussions were progressing but that he had “not yet set

The odds for a move in December were around 61% before the labour market report here. Now, that has gone up to ~81% and this is all before we get to the Autumn Budget on 26 November. With it having been a tight call to hold rates last week i.e. 5-4 vote split, it seems

Shares of Nvidia are down 1.9% in the pre-market and helping to drag broader S&P 500 futures down by 0.2%. The trigger — ostensibly — is that SoftBank disclosed that it sold its entire stake in Nvidia worth $5.83 billion in October. First of all, let’s do the math on that: It’s 0.1% of the

US October NFIB small business optimism index 98.2 vs 98.3 expected Germany November ZEW survey economic sentiment 38.5 vs 41.0 expected PBOC says to implement appropriately loose monetary policy Reminder: It is a partial market holiday in the US today BoE’s Greene: Risk management around inflation needs to influence BoE policy views Limited risk of

RBNZ inflation expectations: 1-year 2.39% (prior 2.37%) and 2-year 2.28% (prior 2.28% also) The Bank focus on the 2-year number, as that’s the time horizon monetary policy transmission is expected to impact. Regardless, both results are well within the target band. There is nothing here to divert the RBNZ form its easing path to support

Fundamental Overview The USD has weakened pretty much across the board last week despite a strong US ADP and ISM Services PMI. As mentioned previously, when markets react like that it’s generally a signal of a short-term top with the market needing more to keep the trend going. In fact, the market pricing is now

Ethereum futures are showing renewed bullish momentum, but the next major move depends on one clear test. On the 4-hour chart, price remains inside a large purple channel that has guided the downtrend since late September. A decisive breakout above the channel’s upper boundary, near $3,900 on futures, would be the signal that bullish continuation

The Wall St Journal is reporting that Beijing is looking into designing a new system in facilitating its rare earth exports, one that will exclude firms with ties to the US military, according to the people familiar with the plan. The new system is dubbed the “validated end-user” system (VEU) and will make it more

Fundamental Overview Gold broke out of the recent consolidation and surged into the most recent swing high around the 4,150 level. This looks more like a short squeeze than something fundamental. The reopening of the US government should bring back the key US data like the NFP and CPI, and those will be key risk

In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data missed expectations across the board and weighed a bit on the pound, although it might not be sustained as the BoE is focused on inflation data and the Autumn Budget. Nonetheless, we should see the December cut probabilities increase a touch.

This is certainly some interesting news, with Japan’s SoftBank Group announcing that it will conduct a stock split after the earnings release today. The stock split will be 1:4 (1 for 4) and the timing of things is something to take note of, especially with the Nikkei having surged up to above 50,000 since the

MicroStrategy adds $50 million in bitcoin, lifting total holdings above $68 billion MicroStrategy continued its steady bitcoin accumulation last week, purchasing 487 BTC between November 3 and 9 for $49.9 million, according to a regulatory filing released Monday. The new acquisitions bring the firm’s total bitcoin holdings to 641,692 tokens, now worth more than $68

US media outlet PBS reports that Senator Thune ‘locked in’ an agreement for shutdown end vote to pass. Once it does so it’ll be handed over to the House of Representatives to vote on. This vote is not likely until Wednesday. – The Senate is expected to begin voting at 5.30pm local time. Thats 2230

Japan’s economy minister Kuichi’s comments are here. If they were meant to be yen supportive they aren;t achieving that goal. Officials in Japan are concerned on two fronts now: the pace of ongoing yen weakness the level of the yen … this is not usually what they are concerned about but this time they are

A rare day with pretty much an empty board in terms of option expiries for today. The full list can be seen below with it comprising mostly of the ones for tomorrow. With nothing else to work with, traders will be left to their own devices and having to once again decipher the risk mood

Prior 39.3 Current conditions -78.7 vs -78.0 expected Prior -80.0 We have misses across the board here but this is not going to change anything for the ECB, so it shouldn’t matter much. The agency said: “The overall mood is characterised by a fall in confidence in the capacity of Germany’s economic policy to tackle

UBS sees S&P 500 climbing to 7,500 in 2026 as earnings power growth UBS expects the S&P 500 to rise to 7,500 by 2026, driven primarily by around 14% earnings growth, with nearly half of that contribution coming from the technology sector. The bank said valuation multiples are unlikely to expand further, making profits the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

It’s one of the few odd ones that we see the bond market closed while the stock market is open. It is a federal holiday in observance of Veterans Day and so federal offices that are not impacted by the shutdown will also be closed today. But for markets, that at least continues to keep

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Opendoor shares stage record comeback after Q3 loss as warrant dividend squeezes shorts The full article is here, I’ve summarized below. Check out the full article linked for the awesome pic! Opendoor Technologies’ stock staged a dramatic turnaround Friday, erasing a 20% intraday loss to finish flat after reporting a wider-than-expected Q3 loss and forecasting

Economically we are in a good place We have had slightly higher growth and inflation than forecast Frontloading of tariffs is still unwinding Consumers are still very cautious in Europe; hard to understand why Market valuations are stretched I am a bit concerned that retail participation in stock markets is growing faster than hedge funds

Light Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (Nov 11, 2025) Current Price: 59.90 Bullish above: 59.89 Bearish below: 59.50 Primary Bias: Mildly bullish (developing) Instrument: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) Oil Futures Market Context & Directional Bias At the time of this analysis, crude oil trades at 59.90, sitting just one cent

South Korea’s exports rose 6.4% year-on-year in the first 10 days of November, while imports increased 8.2%, customs data showed Monday. The trade balance for the period stood at a provisional deficit of US $1.22 billion. The figures suggest steady external demand momentum early in the month, with import growth outpacing exports slightly, leaving the

I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again (and again, and again). You just can’t keep a good gold down. As the end to the US government shutdown draws near, that saw risk assets rally since late Friday and in the opening stages this week. The curious thing though is that gold also surged

National Australia Bank business survey for October 2025. Business confidence dipped to 6 prior 7 Business conditions, which is a more objective measure than the sentiment based confidence, rose to 9, its highest since March 2024 driven by stronger sales and profitability prior 8 Australian business conditions improved in October, suggesting the economy is maintaining

JPMorgan stays bullish, sees U.S. government reopening and NVDA earnings as key near-term catalysts JPMorgan strategists reiterated their tactical bullish stance on equities, calling the recent pullback a buying opportunity ahead of several potential tailwinds, including the likely reopening of the U.S. government. In a note to clients, the bank said a resolution to the

Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said the government is increasingly aware that elevated inflation is eroding household purchasing power, noting that the weak yen continues to push up import costs and consumer prices. He said Tokyo will roll out and expand measures to cushion the impact of higher living costs, including targeted support for vulnerable households

JPMorgan remain bullish, eyes liquidity boost from US reopening. Nvidia earnings, Fed cuts Bipartisan Senate bill proposes shifting crypto oversight from SEC to CFTC, crypto support Ethereum Futures: Key Breakout Zone Ahead (Apx. $3900) RBNZ inflation expectations: 1-year 2.39% (prior 2.37%) & 2-year 2.28% (prior 2.28% also) Tesla’s China sales slump 36% to three-year low

Pres. Trump is stating that the Pay Back numbers from the tariff revenue and investments would be in excess of $2T. I assume that is taking into consideration the tariffs collected -which they say is $1T – and those funds pledged by foreign countries in the form of investment in US infrastructure. He is blaming

The major US stock indices enjoyed a solid day with the Nasdaq index surging by 2.27%. The S&P rose by 1.54% and the Dow by 0.81%. The Nasdaq gain was it’s best since May 27 when the index rose by 2.47%. The gains were driven by the expectations for the government shutdown to end. As

UK consumer spending cools ahead of budget and Black Friday promotions British consumer spending slowed in October as households paused major purchases ahead of the government’s autumn budget and this month’s Black Friday sales, surveys showed Tuesday. Barclays reported that spending on its credit and debit cards — which cover nearly 40% of UK card

The major US stock indices are trading near highs. The NASDAQ index is leading the way with a gain of 2.26% currently. That’s up around 520 point on the day at 23524. The gain is the largest since May 27 when the index rose by 2.47%. The index rose by 2.21% on October 13. Looking

Nasdaq has the best day since the end of May More Trump: We are going to be a country very quickly Pres. Trump. The “Pay Back” numbers for tariffs/investments would be $2T Crude oil futures settles up $0.38 at $60.13 Warren Buffett’s final thoughts in his final letter Gold climbs to the best levels since

Major European indices close to sharply higher. The UK FTSE 100 closed at a new record. In Spain’s Ibex also closed at a new record. The steps of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +1.65% France’s CAC, +1.32% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.08% at 9787.14. That closed higher than the November fit record high close at

Pres. Trump is doing more talking: ON shutdown, we are going to be a country very quickly The deal is very good We want healthcare where we pay money to people, not healthcare companies We are close to deal with India We will bring India tariffs down at some point Economic disaster if we lose

The inflation expectations data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can be a market mover from time time. I don’t think well get much from this today but you never know. The Bank is still forging ahead on a rate cut path. If these numbers jump that’ll compl;icate matters but concerns over a slow

The USDCHF is trading to new lows as the price falls below the 200 hour MA (at 0.8056) and tests/breaks the 38.2% at 0.80475. The low price reached 0.80435. The fall comes after Switzerland says that they are close to a deal with the US on a new tariff rate. The current rate is 39%

Crude oil ended the day higher, gaining $0.38 or 0.64% to close at $60.13. The market traded within a relatively contained range, with a session high of $60.48 and a low of $59.41. Despite earlier weakness, the late-session buying helped lift prices off the lows as risk sentiment improved and technical buyers stepped in near

Nomura warns China’s “anti-involution” campaign won’t be enough to reignite growth Nomura said China’s latest inflation data showed only modest improvement, suggesting the recovery remains fragile despite headline gains. October CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year, up from a 0.3% decline in September and slightly above forecasts. Producer price deflation narrowed to -2.1% from -2.3%, broadly in

I’m torn on what’s driving today’s big gold rally. It’s up $110 to $4108, which is the highest since October 24 and should add confidence to anyone who is trying to pick a bottom in the recent dip. Some thoughts on the strong bids today: 1) The end of the government shutdown is getting the

U.S. Treasury sold 50 billion a 3 year notes at a by yield of Wi level at the time of the auction 3.589% Tail -1.0 basis points vs 6 month average versus 0.0 basis points Bid to cover 2.85X vs 6 month average of 2.58X Directs 27.3% vs 6 month average of 23.9% Indirects 63.0%vs

Pres Trump is on TruthSocial saying that: Of course, the decision on whether he can keep the tariff money has yet to be decided by the Supreme Court. There may also be some money going to farmers. There was a 60-Minutes segment highlighting the pressure on family farms. Meanwhile Trump is saying: All air traffic

Labor market has cooled in an orderly way Consumer balance sheets are ok Companies say labor market has softened a little, things look reasonably ok Took notice of layoff announcements but at same time unemployment insurance claims were stable I haven’t seen any private sector economists tallying until initial jobless claims but there are Fed

Inflation data is stale and is coming down Data since September suggested Fed should be more dovish than its September view. Reasonable to be incrementally more dovish. Employment data is shown some softness. Some of colleagues are looking at backwards looking inflation. Policy should be forward-looking. I do think that some elements should be leading

Japan PM Takaichi: Won’t ditch govt primary balance target for fiscal 2025, but will examine new govt fiscal target for future that looks at fiscal state in scope of several years Earlier: Japan’s Takaichi abandons annual budget target, takes softer fiscal consolidation stance Despite what we hear from the pollies in Japan on a day

Bloomberg is reporting that Switzerland is reporting that they are close to a green to a 15% tariff with the US. The current rate is 39% since August 1. The report says the deal could be concluded in the next 2 weeks but that it could still fall apart. So we are close but no

The US has a shutdown on October 1. The GOP points to the Dems for not agreeing to a clean Continuing Resolution. The Dems would argue that Key Democratic demands — especially extending the enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace credits and reversing planned cuts to social programs — were excluded from

Shares of Wingtech Technology, the Chinese parent company of chipmaker Nexperia, surged as Beijing signalled a thaw in trade tensions with the Netherlands and moved to ease restrictions on semiconductor exports. China’s Commerce Ministry said it would allow the export of certain chips from Nexperia’s China facility. The ministry also urged the European Union to

US stock futures are substantially higher today with S&P 500 futures up 0.9% and all the headlines around the gain are about the US government shutdown ending. Yes, it’s good news but the market never really sold off on the shutdown and it was obviously in the endgame when flight started being cancelled. You can

The risk mood is staying buoyed in European trading and is set to carry over to US trading later as well. The big news since the end of last week is that we might finally get to see the end of the US government shutdown. And that hope and possibility is helping to feed the

The EURUSD moved higher earlier in the session, finding support and basing in the Asian Pacific session at a confluence of technical levels — a swing area and the 38.2% retracement of the recent move near 1.1541–1.1546 (with the retracement level specifically at 1.15448). Buyers pushed the pair up to test a resistance zone between

The USDCAD moved lower on Friday, driven by a stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report. Employment surged by 66.6K (vs. -5K expected) while the unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.1%, giving the Canadian dollar a boost. The pair dropped to test the 200-hour moving average (green line), fluctuating around that level into the close as traders

Fundamental Overview The USD has weakened pretty much across the board last week despite a strong US ADP and ISM Services PMI. As mentioned previously, when markets react like that it’s generally a signal of a short-term top with the market needing more to keep the trend going. In fact, the market pricing is now

Speech by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser Topic is On the Rails or Off to the Races? The Outlook for the Australian Economy venue is the UBS Australasia Conference, Sydney — At its previous meeting the Bank expressed a less dovish view, slashing marekt forecasts for rate cuts any time soon. Inflation remains sticky high. This

Freedom Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: FRHC), a financial services and technology company has signed an agreement with the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan to develop a $2 billion Sovereign AI Hub in Kazakhstan. The hub will be operated by Freedom Holding Corp. and powered by sovereign exascale NVIDIA AI

USTR: The office of USTR announced suspension of action in Section 301 investigation of China’s targeting of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for dominance Action will be suspended for one year, and as of 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on November 10, 2025 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. stock market today displayed significant momentum, most notably in the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. Investors are witnessing a buoyant trading day driven by advancements in these key areas, significantly shaping the market dynamics. 📊 Sector Overview: Technology Leads with Semiconductor Surge Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is exhibiting robust growth, with major players

There are at least 8 votes from Senate Democratic caucus in favor of a negotiated deal to end shutdown Reuters citing unnamed source. This is enough to end the shut down. — The Senate is in recess until 8pm US Eastern time. It looks like there are now plenty enough votes to reopen the government.

Fed needs to guard against inflation risks But should not ignore possibility of productivity boom and faster non-inflationary growth Tariff-driven price increases not spilling over into broader inflation The balance of risks has shifted as the labour market has softened Inflation has declined but remains elevated Policy remains modestly restrictive, economy has been resilient this

Restrictive policy is putting downward pressure on inflation Tariffs effects are largely confined to goods Inflation expectations still relatively well anchored She’s clearly erring on the dovish side and would vote for a rate cut in December if she could. She’s not a voter until 2027 though. There are 12 voting members in the FOMC

Credit Agricole says that the dollar rally from October is poised to go up against a major test with the potential for the US government shutdown to come to an end. The firm says that softer US labour market data could yet temper with the hawkish repricing that has taken place since the October FOMC

Aida, who is also chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole, spoke to the Nikkei newspaper and said that: “It would be quite risky for the BOJ to raise interest rates in December.” Adding that a December rate hike will run counter to the government’s plans to stimulate the economy with large-scale spending. Aida then argued

The AUDUSD is moving higher today, supported by risk-on sentiment—the Nasdaq is up over 360 points—and optimism surrounding improving U.S.–China trade relations (at least for now). From a technical perspective, the pair showed resilience on Friday, holding firm near recent swing lows even as stocks weakened earlier in the session, setting a solid foundation for

China has dramatically expanded its missile production network since 2020, marking what analysts describe as the early phase of a new arms race with the United States, according to a CNN investigation. A CNN analysis of satellite images, official maps and government filings found that more than 60% of 136 facilities linked to missile manufacturing

BNP Paribas is out with a note estimating how the economic data schedule might look if the US government reopens today. It’s not a pretty picture. Yes, we would get the September non-farm payrolls report fairly quickly as the government was shut down right before it was released but it’s ancient history now. The October

Fundamental Overview The USD has weakened pretty much across the board last week despite a strong US ADP and ISM Services PMI. As mentioned previously, when markets react like that it’s generally a signal of a short-term top with the market needing more to keep the trend going. In fact, the market pricing is now

Fundamental Overview The USD has weakened pretty much across the board last week despite a strong US ADP and ISM Services PMI. As mentioned previously, when markets react like that it’s generally a signal of a short-term top with the market needing more to keep the trend going. In fact, the market pricing is now

Policy is in a good place Rate cut so far has supported labor market, keeps downward pressure on inflation She is speaking on Bloomberg TV. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday in terms of data releases as we don’t have anything on the agenda today. Markets are in a positive mood this morning after the Senate voted 60–40 to advance a bill. Eight Senate Democrats joined the Republican majority in backing the stopgap deal, which would fund

At Forex Expo Dubai 2025, the discussion on “Women in Forex: Leadership Beyond Boundaries” wasn’t about counting how many women are in the room.It was about redefining what leadership means — and why the industry’s future depends on a different kind of strength. Speaking on the panel, Nahid Yousefi, Regional General Manager at Alpari, offered

The USD is mixed with the USD lower vs the EUR and GBP by higher vs the JPY as the market reacts to the potential reopening of the US government. IN the video above I take a look at those three currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. Looking

Senators returned to Capitol Hill for an unusual Sunday session as efforts intensified to bring an end to the 40-day government shutdown. While no formal votes were initially scheduled, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that “we plan to vote today” on a funding proposal intended to reopen parts of the government. The Senate

The expected launch of $BALZ, a community token on BNB Chain, is scheduled to go live on PancakeSwap this Friday, November 7, within a controlled launch window between 2:30 PM and 5:30 PM CET. With over 40,000 followers on X and more than $2 million raised in presale, $BALZ has rapidly evolved from an experimental

Fundamental Overview The USD has weakened pretty much across the board last week despite a strong US ADP and ISM Services PMI. As mentioned previously, when markets react like that it’s generally a signal of a short-term top with the market needing more to keep the trend going. In fact, the market pricing is now

Bank of Japan policymakers appear increasingly aligned on the need to continue normalising interest rates, though opinions differ on timing and conditions, according to the summary of the central bank’s October meeting released Sunday US time. Several members said the BOJ should raise rates further if its economic and price forecasts hold, with one noting

China’s gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings and official reserves surged in the first three quarters of 2025, underscoring continued investor demand and state accumulation despite weaker physical consumption. Data from the China Gold Association show domestic gold ETFs added 79 tons between January and September, a 164% increase from the same period in 2024, bringing

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 16 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 82 bps ECB: 1 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 12 bps BoE: 15 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 57 bps BoC: 3 bps (87% probability of

Headlines: US futures keep higher on hopes of end to government shutdown Fed’s Daly says need to keep an open mind about further rate cuts More from Fed’s Daly: We are likely experiencing a negative demand shock ECB’s de Guindos: We firmly believe that current interest rate level is appropriate BOJ should refrain from hiking

If inflation developments deviate, or if projections are modified, and if transmission is not correct, then we may change But so far, we firmly believe that the level of interest rates is correct Services, wages are moving in the right direction Need to be very prudent and cautious in policy setting even though level of

China suspends special port fees on US ships for one year The US Senate has approved the first vote needed to reopen government, 60-40 vote BoJ’s Nakagawa says the Bank expects to continue raising rates as economy, prices improve Satellite images show China’s missile buildup accelerating since 2020, CNN reports US suspends investigation of China

Hopes for BOJ to guide monetary policy appropriately so Japan can sustainably achieve 2% inflation, that is not just driven by cost-push factors but also wage growth Hopes for BOJ to continue to work closely with the government on policy with an eye on economic, price, and financial developments Government holds final responsibility on economic

BOJ policy board member Junko Nakagawa speaks at 2240 US Eastern time / 0320 GMT Junko Nakagawa voted with the majority at the October 30/31 Bank of Japan meeting to hold short term raters steady at 0.5% The two dissenters, Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura, proposed raising the rate to 0.75% Ahead of Nakagawa: Economic

German DAX futures +1.5% French CAC 40 futures +1.2% UK FTSE futures +0.8% The mood music is looking more positive as investors are hoping for the end of the US government shutdown to happen soon. That’s keeping markets cheerful and in the case of European equities, there’s also some catching up to do from Friday.

Jumper Exchange (https://jumper.exchange/) today announced the expansion of its gasless cross-chain routing and reported a new all-time high (ATH) of $188 million in daily volume, as yield-seeking users diversify across multiple blockchain networks. This announcement highlights two company milestones: broader availability of gasless routes and a new daily volume record. The upgrade enhances route selection

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with nothing to show for as well for tomorrow. The full list can be found below. There is only a biggish one at the 1.1500 level for EUR/USD today but given prevailing market action, it is unlikely to see that factor into play.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams has warned that growing financial strain on lower- and middle-income Americans could undermine the broader U.S. economy’s resilience, even as wealthier households benefit from a booming stock market. Williams spoke in an interview with the Financial Times, link here for transcript (gated) . said the Fed’s December policy

Domestic sight deposits CHF 436.3 bn vs CHF 446.9 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell back in the past week but nothing out of the ordinary with levels still seen thereabouts as they have been in the past few months since the June policy change. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

China has suspended its export restrictions on key strategic metals used in semiconductors and defense technologies, easing a year-long ban that had targeted shipments to the United States. News from Sunday, in brief: China’s Ministry of Commerce announced Sunday that it would temporarily lift its ban on approving exports of “dual-use items” related to gallium,

Japan PM Takaichi: Not ruling out sales tax cut as option in future, but immediate priority is to compile package of steps to cushion blow from rising cost of living Changing sales tax rate would take time, so decision on whether to do so would need to take into account wage, inflation levels at the

By Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy, investingLive.com Michael Burry, the legendary investor known for “The Big Short,” has once again gone against the crowd. His latest target is Palantir Technologies (PLTR), one of the most talked-about and traded AI and data analytics stocks among retail investors. According to the latest Q3 2025 13F filing, Burry’s

The big news since the weekend is that we might be seeing the potential end to the US government shutdown. The Senate moved to approve the first vote for that to happen here, which now throws the ball back over to the House’s court. As a reminder, it’s been 40 days that the US government

Goldman Sachs says the artificial intelligence investment cycle still has room to run, comparing today’s surge in AI spending and valuations to the early phase of the late-1990s tech boom rather than its speculative peak. In a new report, the bank said that “on many metrics, the current AI-related boom has more in common with

The U.S. government shutdown appeared close to ending after a group of centrist Senate Democrats agreed to support a stopgap deal to reopen key agencies and provide temporary funding. Under the proposal, federal employees would receive back pay and states would resume delayed federal transfers. The measure would fund certain departments through January 30, while

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has warned that air travel disruptions will deepen in the coming days as the country faces a third consecutive day of federally mandated flight reductions amid the ongoing government shutdown. Duffy spoke in an interview with CNN’s State of the Union “It’s only going to get worse,” flight capacity could

Gold jumping higher in price again. Thee is no fresh news apart from what has been posted. A popular narrative was a flow into gold helped along by the uncertainty surrounding the US government shut down. Now that it appears to be over the flow is still into gold. Narratives are often after the fact

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior -5.4 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx +1.3% Germany DAX +1.5% France CAC 40 +1.0% UK FTSE +0.7% Spain IBEX +1.2% Italy FTSE MIB +1.3% That especially in having to play catch up to the late gains in Wall Street on Friday as well, which came after the European close. Investors are cheering on the increased possibility of the US government

Warren Buffett will deliver his long-anticipated farewell message to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Monday, marking the end of an era for one of the world’s most influential investors. Berkshire Hathaway announced that Buffett’s letter, his first public address since revealing in May that he would step down as CEO by year-end, will be published on

China will suspend port fees levied on U.S.-linked vessels for a year, its transport ministry said on Monday. Its been a steady drip-feed of news indicating better relations between the two countries. Weekend – China suspends export ban on gallium, germanium and other critical metals to US US suspends investigation of China targeting of maritime,

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the country’s monetary policy faces an “unusual challenge,” as the economy continues to run above its potential even after last year’s recovery began, leaving limited room for near-term rate cuts. Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Hauser said that demand was “slightly” above potential output

BOJ policy board member Junko Nakagawa Speech at a Meeting of the Okayama Club. Full text: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan — Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Nakagawa said the central bank will maintain a cautious stance as trade policy risks remain elevated and inflation expectations continue to rise toward

The US Senate has approved the first vote needed to reopen government, in a 60-40 vote. Once all votes in the Senate are complete, which seems a formality now this has passed, the House will need to vote. As I said earlier, I expect it’ll pass there too and the shut down should end within

ABC News reports that a sufficient number of Democrats are expected to back a short-term funding measure to end the U.S. government shutdown. The proposal would extend federal funding until January 31 and fully finance the SNAP food assistance program and Veterans Affairs for the entire fiscal year, according to Senate sources. —- Stay tuned

Goldman Sachs says U.S. investors are ramping up their exposure to Japanese equities, chasing the country’s standout returns and its growing focus on technology and artificial intelligence. The report on the note is via Bloomberg. Bruce Kirk, Goldman’s chief Japan equity strategist, said inflows from the U.S. are now accelerating at the fastest pace since

The recent optimism for a yen rebound is fading fast as major banks downgrade their forecasts and investors scale back expectations for an early Bank of Japan rate hike, with fiscal concerns under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi adding fresh downward pressure on the currency. Japanese media, the Nikkei, runs the report this morning, Tokyo time.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser Don’t think its mad to think future rate cuts would be coming There are different views you can take about rate outlook Will feel our way with neutral rate, will see how tight or loose policy is by judging the macro economy Financial conditions are more close to

Goldman Sachs has raised its growth outlook for China, citing resilient exports, easing U.S.–China trade tensions, and renewed policy momentum from Beijing’s latest five-year plan. Hui Shan, Goldman’s chief China economist, said the bank now expects China’s real GDP to rise 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 up from earlier forecasts of 4.3% and

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has signalled a major shift in fiscal policy, saying her government will drop the annual target for achieving a primary budget surplus in favour of a multi-year framework. Speaking in parliament on Friday, Takaichi said progress in restoring Japan’s finances will be judged “over a span of several years,” effectively

British employers expect to raise pay by around 3% over the next year, but growing use of artificial intelligence could reduce headcount, according to a new survey that also highlighted weaker hiring intentions and concern over government tax policy. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said overall recruitment plans are among the weakest

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates only: EUR/USD 1.1560 USD/JPY 153.81, yen weaker in the early hours GBP/USD 1.3146 USD/CHF 0.8051 USD/CAD 1.4053 AUD/USD 0.6498 NZD/USD

Bank of Japan policymakers discussed the likelihood of a near-term rate hike at their October meeting, with most members leaning toward tightening if wage momentum and economic conditions stay supportive, according to a summary released Monday. I put up a piece on the Summary earlier: BoJ Summary of Oct meeting highlights the importance of wages

You note the Chinese inflation data was published over the weekend, post is here ICYMI: China October inflation data: CPI 0.2% y/y (expected 0%), PPI -2.1% y/y (expected -2.2%) The highlight of the event calendar today in Asia-Pacific is the Bank of Japan ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the October meeting. From the day: Bank of

The US economy is shrinking according to comments from these two senior Trump officials. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: the impact of the government shut down on the economy is getting worse and worse expects prices to come down over the months ahead (note, in a recession prices will tend to fall, or at least not

Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions (Oct); Norwegian CPI (Oct), EZ Sentix (Nov), Chinese M2 & New Yuan Loans (Oct) Tue: US Veterans’ Day; New Zealand Inflation Forecasts (Q4), UK Unemployment Rate/Wages (Sep), EZ & German ZEW (Nov), US NFIB (Oct), ADP’s new weekly “preliminary” jobs estimate Wed: BoC Minutes (Oct), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR Thu:

Inflation data from China for October 2025, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). CPI +0.2% y/y expected 0.0%, prior -0.3% CPI +0.2% also for the m/m prior +0.1% PPI -2.1% y/y (producer prices have now fallen for a 37th straight month) expected -2.2%, prior -2.3% This is slightly better than expected. The

Canada October employment change +66.6K vs -2.5K expected UMich consumer sentiment 50.3 vs 53.2 prelim NY Fed survey finds less worry about inflation and more about jobs Trump: Talking with Hungary about meetings with Russian Pres. Putin BOE’s Pill says not to overinterpret removal of the word ‘careful’ Uranium-enriching company jumps after Trump’s sons invest

You know that feeling you get when you read something that was clearly written by AI? It’s happening more and more and it pains me to see real human communication usurped, even if it means fewer typos. It’s obviously where we are headed and untold billions will continue to be made but it’s haphazard, inauthentic

US stocks are closing mixed with the Dow and the S&P closed modestly higher, the Nasdaq still closed lower but still fell by 3% this week for its worst week since the March 31 week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 74.80 points or 0.16% at 46987.10. At session lows,

Mean reversion trading made simple: why it works, how to do it, and the exact strategy that’s delivered 18%+ annual returns for 25 years. The post The Essential Guide To Mean Reversion Trading (Backed By Data) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Next week, the data will be highlighted by UK (Tuesday at 2 PM ET) and Australian jobs reports (Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET/Thursday in Australia. UK GDP will be released on Thursday (at 2 AM ET). If it were a normal week, US CPI would’ve been released along with, retail sales, unemployment claims and PPI

If I had to try to pin down a catalyst for the comeback it would be the news on a few fronts: More dovish UMich survey Lower 1-year inflation expectations in the NY Fed survey Signs of a deal on a US government shutdown The thing is, that all hit around 10 am ET and

Crude oil futures are settling at $59.75 up $0.32 on the day. For the trading week, the price is down $-1.06 or -1.74%. Technically, the price high on Monday extended above the falling 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart but found willing sellers against the low of the swing area at $61.45. The

Shares of ASPI are jumping today after a report that the sons of Donald Trump — Eric and Don Jr — invested in the convertible notes of its subsidiary. Quantum Leap Energy is wholly owned by ASPI and raised about $64.3 billion, according to Bloomberg. Among those investors were Trump’s sons and naturally, shares of

As the shutdown is in day 38, the threat for Pres. Trump and the GOP is that suddenly the eye is off the ball and people are noticing. While the people are hurting and want to get paid and back to work (they will be paid at some point but work is slowing down), he

On Tuesday, the AUDUSD fell sharply with the US stocks tumbling lower. On Wednesday, the pair moved higher as stocks corrected some of the declines. Yesterday, it was back down as stocks slid again. Today with the stocks falling again, the AUDUSD has not moved lower, but is trading up and down within a technical

This is dovish on the margin: one-year expected inflation to 3.2% vs 3.4% prior Three year inflation unchanged at 3.0% Five year inflation unchanged at 5.0% Households’ labor market outlook was mostly negative Perception of current financial situation worsened Expectation of future financial situation declined The market remains in a poor mood with the S&P

It’s an ugly one in stocks as a mid-morning attempt to find a bottom has clearly failed. The Nasdaq Composite is at a session low, down 2% and that leaves the index down 4.9% on the week, which is the worst one since late March. The trend isn’t exactly broken but it will need ot

Gold has been a real battle this week as it consolidates around $4000 but it’s taken a quick trip to the best levels since Monday. It quickly rose to $4025 from $3990 in the past few minutes. It needs to get above the Oct 30 high of $4047 (call it $4050) to clear this consolidation

The broader U.S. stock indices are breaking lower, slipping beneath their 50-day moving averages — a technical development not seen since early May following the April selloff. The move marks a shift in momentum and puts sellers back in control of the near-term bias. For the NASDAQ index, the 50-day moving average sits at 22,657.35,

Asked about the removal of the world ‘careful’ from the BOE’s language saying ‘careful and gradual’, he says it shouldn’t be overinterpreted. The market is still off-balance on what’s coming next fro the Bank of England with pricing at 58% for a cut (though rising to 100% for February). More comments: I would emphasize continuity

German DAX futures +0.1% French CAC 40 futures flat UK FTSE futures flat This comes as US futures are also sitting marginally higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% on the day. All of this follows the heavy selling in Wall Street overnight, with tech shares leading the declines once again. It all indicates that

Closing changes for the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 -0.6% German DAX -0.75% France CAC -0.3% UK FTSE 100 -0.6% Spain IBEX -1.45% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.4% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.3% German DAX -1.3% France CAC -2.2% UK FTSE 100 -0.4% Spain IBEX -0.9% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Details of the latest consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan, for the month of November 2025: Final Oct was 53.6 Current conditions 52.3 vs 59.2 expected (prior was 61.0) Expectations 49.0 vs 50.3 expected (prior was 51.2) 1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.6% prior 5-year inflation 3.6% vs 3.7% prior The headline is the

There are some signs of progress on the US government shutdown and I’m optimistic it will end on the weekend but for now we wait. That means that a second non-farm payrolls report is going to be missed, leaving the Fed and markets with a big blind spot at a critical time. S&P 500 futures

Fundamental Overview Nothing has changed this week in the market. Gold has been stuck in a consolidation since last Tuesday despite a more hawkish than expected Fed Chair Powell. It might be a sign of a short-term bottom, but it could also be just some exhaustion after the 11% drawdown. There are no strong reasons

This is a bit childish at this point but Senate Republican leader John Thune says he’s willing to give Democrats everything they’re asking for in order to pass the government reopening bill, but only if they reopen it first. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Tech and Semiconductors Slip, Financials Show Stability The semiconductor sector dominated market headlines today with a notable downturn. Major player Nvidia (NVDA) experienced a significant decline of 2.09%, setting the tone for other semiconductor stocks like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which fell by 2.00%, and Micron Technology (MU), down by 2.18%. Conversely, the

A tough week in US stock markets is getting tougher by the minutes. The S&P 500 is at the lows of the day, down 1.1% to 6646. That’s the loweset since Oct 17 as the late-October low is cracked and more stops are hit. The index is down 2.8% on the week compared to the

After the risk selloff yesterday, we are seeing a calmer mood play out in European morning trade today. And that’s keeping the market moves this week in check amid some pushing and pulling in general. 10-year Treasury yields moved up to a one-month high on Wednesday before falling back yesterday and then are now pushing

It is reported that China has already begun designing a new regime for rare earth exports licensing in hopes that it could speed up shipments down the road. However, that is still not likely to amount to a complete rollback of the restrictions that is hoped for by the US camp. Some rare earth exports

The Canadian jobs data was stronger that expectations and that sent the USDCAD to new lows going back to Tuesday’s trade. However, the price bounced higher after trading at 1.40546 twice (double bottom). The October 14 high at 1.4079 was broken in the bounce, but quickly failed. That level is now close resistance for traders

The EURUSD started the US session with the price higher and just above the broken 200 hour MA near 1.15525. Buyers on the dip in the early trading, defended that level and that has led to increased upside momentum with new highs for the week. The price has also moved to the next key target

Prior was +60.4 Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 7.1% expected (prior 7.1%) Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.2% prior Full time -18.5K vs +106.1K prior Part time +85.1K vs -45.6K prior Hourly wages for permanent employees % vs +3.6% prior USD/CAD was trading at 1.1402 ahead of the report and quickly fell to 1.4075. The numbers in

Takaichi fills key panels with Abenomics advocates to drive pro-growth agenda Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has stacked top economic panels with reflationist economists and big-spending advocates, signalling a return to Abenomics-style stimulus as Japan’s new government pushes to revive growth and keep policy loose. Reuters carry this very intersting piece. More: The government confirmed that

A Better DCA Strategy for Any Long-Term Stock Investor Last night, while serving as one of the judges for the FM Awards by Finance Magnates I had several insightful conversations with colleagues from across the financial industry. One of those chats was with another judge, Javier Hertfelder from FXStreet.com, a genuinely pleasant and thoughtful professional

After the selling yesterday, we’re starting to see signs of caution again in markets today. Risk appetite held steadier early in the day but is now beginning to turn once more. It’s clear that there’s some modest de-risking taking place across broader markets this week, with Bitcoin once again set to be put to the

Swiss commodity trading firm Gunvor has withdrawn its offer to buy the international assets of Russia’s Lukoil after the US Treasury declared it would “never” approve the deal, branding the company a “Kremlin puppet.” The Treasury’s post on X cited President Donald Trump’s stance that the war in Ukraine must end immediately, saying Gunvor would

Warburg Pincus sees China turning attractive again after valuation reset Warburg Pincus CEO Jeffrey Perlman said China is becoming “quite attractive” for private equity investment following a sharp correction in valuations and as global competitors retreat. Speaking in Tokyo, Perlman contrasted China’s decade of flat stock performance with strong U.S. equity gains despite the former’s

The Tesla TSLA board has approved Musk’s pay package. TEsla shareholders approve Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package – Tesla shareholders have decisively approved a new ten-year pay package for CEO Elon Musk, potentially valued at as much as $878 billion. The vote is seen as a strong endorsement of Musk’s ambitious vision to transition

S&P 500 futures are down 0.35% as we near the equity open. The weakness started early this week after Palantir earnings and the bizarre performances from the CEO led to some profit taking in highly valued tech stocks. Today’s catalyst was supposed to be Tesla shareholders approving a potential $1 trillion pay package for Elon

TrustFinance has shared new insights outlining the top financial industry trends to watch in 2026, emphasizing how artificial intelligence (AI), evolving regulations, and transparency are transforming the global financial landscape. According to the TrustFinance Research Team, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of operational maturity for the finance sector. Institutions are moving from

North Korea have fired off another ballistic missile. South Korea military confirm. Japanese PM Takaichi says North Korea’s missile likely fell outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.3% That’s a notable jump in UK house prices, with the pace being the fastest since January. The average property price is now £299,862, edging up to a new record high. And with mortgage activity also staying underpinned, it continues to point to relatively resilient demand. Halifax notes that: “Demand from buyers has held

In the kickstart video for the NA session on November 7, Greg Michalowski take a look at the 3 major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the bias for traders, the next targets and the risk? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed makes decisions based on data, the outlook, and the balance of risks Fed still has a lot of data on the economy despite lack of official reports We have enough data to make policy, but not questioning that official data is the gold standard He’s mainly trying to soothe the naysayers on this in

Jumper Exchange (https://jumper.exchange/) today announced the expansion of its gasless cross-chain routing and reported a new all-time high (ATH) of $188 million in daily volume, as yield-seeking users diversify across multiple blockchain networks. This announcement highlights two company milestones: broader availability of gasless routes and a new daily volume record. The upgrade enhances route selection

JPMorgan tells clients to ‘buy the dip’ as bull market stays intact JPMorgan analysts said they continue to view any market pullback as a buying opportunity through 2026, arguing that solid growth, strong earnings, and fading headwinds will keep the equity rally alive. In a note led by Andrew Tyler, head of the bank’s market

Prior €17.2 billion The German trade balance narrowed in September as exports were seen growing by 1.4% but outpaced by imports which grew by 3.1% on the month. The standout though is that German exports to the US showed a monthly increase for the first time after consecutive declines from April through to August. German

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. On Wednesday, we got a couple of strong US data. The

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the French current account and the Swiss consumer confidence data. None of the data will change anything for the respective central banks. In the American session, we have the Canadian employment report and the US University

Ahead of the meeting yesterday, Morgan Stanley noted that: “Our base case is for the next move in February, although the risks of a cut in 4Q are high – not just due to how close the debate and the vote split on the MPC might be next week, but also given our forecasts for

The PBOC just announced that it has increased its gold reserves from 74.06 million fine troy ounces in September to 74.09 million fine troy ounces in October. The value of the gold reserves is seen adjusting higher to $297.21 billion at the end of October as opposed to $283.29 billion at the end of September.

Data for Chinese overseas trade data for October is due today, the 0300 GMT time listed in the screenshot should be used as a guide only. Both exports and imports are expected to have grown, but at a slower pace in October than in September. There are a couple of late in the (US) day

China October 2025 CPI and PPI are due on Sunday November 9 at 0130 GMT thats 2030 US Eastern time on Saturday November 8 I’ve checked economic calendars and I can’t see ‘expected’ for these anywhere. PPI will remain in deflation while the CPI (y/y) is likely to remain in deflation given what we know

J.P. Morgan says BoE right to hold rates as inflation stays stubbornly high J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Zara Nokes said the Bank of England made the “right call” in keeping its policy rate unchanged on November 6, arguing that inflation remains far too high for the central bank to risk easing. Nokes noted that while

Prior -€5.53 billion; revised to -€5.19 billion The French trade deficit expanded in September as exports were little changed, up just 0.1% on the month, while imports grew by 2.5% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

I’m loathe to attach any market moves to the US government shutdown as it was never a reason to sell and shouldn’t by a reason to buy. That said, it would be nice if it ended and there was a slightly positive development that’s fitting within the ‘this weekend’ timeline that I outlined earlier this

Fed’s Musalem: Tariffs likely to stay as balance sheet decision kept separate from policy More from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem. Said the central bank’s outlook assumes current US tariffs will remain in place, and that the recent Fed balance sheet decision was made independently of monetary policy. He added that

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fed’s Musalem sees resilient US economy but flags tariff and deficit risks Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said the US economy has shown notable resilience despite uncertainty but faces ongoing challenges from tariffs, inflation pressures, and large fiscal deficits. Speaking Thursday, Musalem said the labour market has “softened of late” yet

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Morgan Stanley sees India equity recovery as growth cycle turns Morgan Stanley expects India’s stock market to rebound from its sharp underperformance since late 2024, saying a turning growth cycle and policy stimulus should drive a recovery. The bank described the market as entering a macro-driven phase, where broader economic trends matter more than stock

US Vice President Vance is warning of consequential suffering for Americans as the government shut down persists. “The American people are unfortunately are about to start suffering some very real consequences because of the shutdown.” Travelers can attest to this: US airlines must reduce operations at 40 high traffic airports by 6 am US ET

Trump seeks Central Asian rare earths to diversify U.S. supply chains President Donald Trump said the U.S. aims to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals, announcing plans to strengthen ties with Central Asian nations during a White House meeting with leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Trump said “critical minerals” were a

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the broader risk mood as well as the push and pull in the bond market – for the dollar at least. Wall Street saw another selloff yesterday and

China October trade data: Yuan denominated exports -0.8% y/y (prior +8.4%) Yuan denominated imports +1.4% y/y (prior +7.5%) Yuan denominated trade balance is a surplus of 640.49bn, from 645.47bn in September USD denominated exports -1.1% y/y, an unexpected drop expected +3%, prior +8.3% USD denominate imports +1.0% y/y, growth but missing estimates expected +3.2%, prior

Nomura penciled in a rate cut for this week but that didn’t materialise of course as seen yesterday here. Their note going into the meeting decision was that if there was a rate cut in November, then they see the BOE cutting rates just one more time in February next year. But now, it seems

U.S. to block Nvidia’s sale of scaled-down AI chips to China despite Trump’s earlier signals. The White House has reportedly decided to block Nvidia from selling its newest scaled-back artificial intelligence chips to China, reversing earlier indications from President Donald Trump that such exports might be allowed. According to people familiar with the decision, federal

Japan PM Takaichi fills key panels with Abenomics-style stimulus advocates North Korea have fired off another ballistic missile JPMorgan bullish through 2026, cites fading headwinds, sees S&P 500 breaking 7,000 soon China October trade data: Exports -0.8% y/y (prior +8.4%) Imports +1.4% y/y (prior +7.5%) Recapping Fed’s Hammack – says inflation still trumps jobs on

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack reaffirmed her hawkish position on monetary policy Thursday, stating that while she doesn’t currently support raising interest rates, she believes the Fed should maintain a restrictive policy stance to address persistent inflation. In a Reuters interview following a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Hammack

Fed’s Hammack warns inflation still top concern, says policy only ‘barely restrictive’ Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s more pressing concern, arguing that monetary policy should stay “mildly restrictive” until price growth is firmly on track to the 2% target. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, Hammack said

Vote was 4-1 Heath dissented in favor of holding Inflation projected to converge to target in Q3 of 2026 The peso is trading at 18.60. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US equity close: Signs of second thoughts in the AI investment boom Reeves has plans to raise personal taxes – report OpenAI CFO highligths the precarious economics of hyperscalers Mexico central bank lowers key rate by 25 bps, as expected Nikkei: Discrepancies have emerged over the details of China’s agreement on rare earth Fed Miran.

Japan data for September 2025: Household Spending +1.8% y/y expected +2.5%, prior +2.3% -0.7% m/m expected -0.1%, prior +0.6% — The Bank of Japan won’t be overly impressed with this. A slow and cautious rate hike path seems to still be likely. Yesterday was a ixed bag on wages data: real wages fell 1.4% y/y

Rachel Reeves has told the Budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax, according to Steven Swinford from The Times. Reeves informed the OBR that personal tax measures will be included in her budget on November 26 but the report notes that the plans could still be reversed. “The chancellor is considering a 2p

On the day: S&P 500 -1.1% Nasdaq Comp -1.9% DJIA -0.8% Russell 2000 -1.6% Toronto TSX Comp -0.7% This is a bit of a worrisome chart as Oracle has now retraced the entire 25% gap up that briefly made Larry Ellison the world’s richest man. The market is growing more weary of AI spending and

U.S. FAA draft order says airlines must reduce operations by 4% at 40 high traffic airports by 6 am US Eastern time Friday draft order says 10% reduction in operations will take effect Nov 14 draft order says it will impose restrictions on space launches effective Nov 10 Document seen by Reuters. The shut down

No one knows what the economics of massive investments in computer chips for AI will reap. That’s the takeaway from comments from OpenAI’s CFO that were cited today by a WSJ reporter. In addition, the ways they are planning to pay for it may not align with anything that users would prefer. The battle is

The EURUSD has been stepping higher in trading today and in the process has been able to extend above the 38.2% at 1.1507, the 38.2% of the move down from the end of October high at 1.15448. and and floor from October between 1.1541 and 1.1546. The next target is the falling 200 hour MA

The US stocks continue to move lower with the NASDAQ index now down -1.62%. The S&P index is down close to 1% is momentum increases lower. Looking at the NASDAQ index it is approaching its 200 hour moving average currently at 23046.40. The low price of just reached at 23099.23.The 50% of the move up

More from NY Fed Pres. Williams: Large AI investments in US are affecting global demand for capital People don’t like high inflation Getting inflation to 2% as soon as we can is right 2% inflation target is a very good compromise, serves us well Powerful that everyone knows Fed’s inflation target Independence of Fed is

Market Overview Today’s U.S. stock market exhibited a patchwork of performance with various sectors responding differently to market currents. While financials displayed a bright outlook, technology and consumer stocks faced downturns amidst investor caution. Sector Analysis: Winners and Losers 📈 Financial Sector Shines: Financials led the way with Bank of America (BAC) climbing a robust

Inflation to overshoot target by 1 pp It will take 2-3 years to get back to target Could be a decade of Fed overshooting target Does not put high odds on labor market downturn It’s not obvious the Fed should cut again given inflation She’s hawkish but that’s no surprise. Given the drop in equity

The USDCHF moved higher yesterday, marking its sixth consecutive daily gain, though the advance was modest—only about a pip or two—closing at 0.8102. The high for the day reached 0.81235, the highest level since August 11. However, momentum has slowed today, with the price retreating toward a swing area between 0.8071 and 0.8076. The 100-hour

Most of labour market indicators show stability in market We should be careful taking payroll job number drop as an indicator of job market (unemployment rate is a better indicator now) Mild cooling in labour market The unemployment rate is basically unchanged There’s a little downside risk to the labor market There’s a lot of

Hammack adds: Now is a challenging time for monetary policy making it will take a couple of years to get back to 2% inflation target the Fed bigger miss is on the inflation side relative to job mandate. Inflation overshoot goes beyond tariff pressure. A little bit nervous about current policy given inflation. I would

This comment could be hurting market sentiment but I wouldn’t take anything from a politicians mouth too seriously. Yesterday, some Republican Senators cited by the WSJ said they were increasingly optimistic about a deal by the end of the weekend. Cancelling flights is not going to fly with Americans. This article was written by Adam

The data is released earlier than expected by the source. US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October this year, which is up a whopping 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024. Even compared to September, the number of layoffs is up a staggering 183% last month. And historically for October, this is

Goldman Sachs is now expecting that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points in December after their interest rate decision today. About today was 5 – 4 with the 4 dissenters arguing for a cut of 25 basis points. Governor Bailey signalled that the BoE is likely to follow a gradual

Prior 46.2 That’s a bit of a bummer as construction activity declines at its fastest pace in over five years in October. There were steep reductions in housing and civil engineering activity, as firms cited a lack of new work to replace completed projects. S&P Global notes that: “UK construction companies reported another challenging month

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday and continued that extension into today’s trading. However, once the price reached the falling 100 hour MA, the buyers turned to sellers and the the price started to back off. US stocks moving lower (Nasdaq is now down -241 points or 1.0%) has more risk-off trading in play and that

The US dollar is unwinding the selling we saw earlier, that started in EUR and GBP. The Bank of England held rates today in a narrow decision and that had led to some volatility in the pound. Now we’re seeing a broader risk off tone in markets and that has unwound gains in the euro

Prior 4.00% Bank rate vote 5-4 vs 6-3 expected (Breeden, Ramsden, Dhingra, Taylor voted for 25 bps rate cut) Prior 7-2 CPI inflation is judged to have peaked Progress on underlying disinflation continues, supported by the still restrictive stance of monetary policy The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced recently, and the

Fed Gov. Barr is also speaking and says: Progress has been made on inflation, but there is still work to do. Two-speed economy with wealthier households thriving Fed has to pay attention to ensuring the job market is solid Low hiring part of low-hire. Low fire environment may be showing some effect of AI adoption

NY Fed Pres. Williams is on the newswires saying: The natural rate of interest is hard to pin down The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points for the 2nd 25 basis point cut in in 2025 at their meeting last week, but the Fed Chair and most commentary has endorsed a wait and see

Prior +0.1%; revised to -0.1% That’s a miss on estimates with the drop mostly coming from a decline in sales for non-food products (-0.2%). Meanwhile, food sales were stable on the month. This is a bit of a lagging release, so it won’t change the ECB outlook whatsoever. This article was written by Justin Low

Prior was 59.8 Non-seasonally adjusted 51.7 vs 61.6 prior This is a poor indicator but we’re all starving for data. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that financial markets inherently carry downside risks, reminding investors not to become complacent about elevated asset valuations. Further: Speaking on the economic outlook, Dimon said that while no U.S. president welcomes high interest rates, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its independence in setting policy. He warned that

The Energy Act of 2020 directed the USGS to update the list of critical minerals, and the list is timely to provide guidance for use of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funds, both for the USGS and other agencies. The act also indicates that at least every three years, the Department of the Interior must review

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures flat Wall Street enjoyed a positive showing yesterday in brushing aside the negativity and heavy mood from Asia and Europe before that. That’s providing a bit of a relief after the heavy selling before, with investors staying hopeful for the risk mood to pick up towards the end

Prior -4.3%; revised to -3.7% That’s a miss on estimates with German industrial output only rebounding mildly after the sharp drop in August. The three-month comparison shows that overall output declined by 0.8% in Q3 as compared to Q2. As for September itself, the rebound comes from the automotive industry – which saw a very

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 mark. That could yet keep price action more limited and centered around the figure level in the session ahead. However, just take note that we are also seeing price move back to

Apple may tap Google’s Gemini for a smarter Siri. What it could mean for AAPL and GOOG TLDR for busy readers Bloomberg reports that Apple is nearing a deal to license a customized Google Gemini model for Siri, at about 1 billion dollars per year. The model is said to be around 1.2 trillion parameters

Summary box for Today’s Bitcoin Traders (price are for bitcoin futures!) Bullish above: 104500 Bearish below: 104100 Current price: 103855 Primary bias: Bearish while price stays under 104100 and near the developing VWAP Partial targets for BTC shorts (once price activates the short by crossing down 104500) 103580 103055 102090 101730 100985 Extended swing references

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said the recent rise in unemployment was broadly in line with the central bank’s expectations, reflecting where the economy stands in the current cycle. Speaking to lawmakers on Thursday following the release of the RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report, Hawkesby acknowledged that conditions were “hard out there,” but

Marginally more optimistic on growth Much more optimistic on services inflation Evolution of wages fully alignes with projections Level of uncertainty is huge Our intention is to give a gently growing dividendm we will say more in February Comfortable with current level of interest rates We believe that undershooting will be temporary Convergence to 2%

BASELINE The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold the Bank Rate steady today at 4.00% and the QT pace unchanged. The vote split is expected to be 6-3 in favour of a hold with Dhingra, Taylor and Ramsden voting for a cut (Dhingra and Taylor could vote for a 50 bps cut but

Food stamps were cut this week and it looks like air travel is next. Sources cited by Reuters say the Federal Aviation Administration is working to hammer out details of flight cuts that will start tomorrow. That’s going to make a different subset of voters angry and might even get politicians to start working together.

The USD is lower vs the 3 major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP. For the EURUSD, it moved back above 1.14919 the 50% of the move up from the May low) early in the Asian Pacific session and that disappointed the sellers who have been trying to keep that level as a ceiling

The USDCAD trended higher over the past six trading days, reaching a high of 1.41398 yesterday after rising from a low of 1.3887 six days ago. However, momentum has since slowed, with the bias shifting slightly in favor of the Canadian dollar as markets reacted to Supreme Court arguments suggesting that the justices may curb

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. Yesterday, we got a couple of strong US data. The US

Our decision will be conditional on fiscal policy as well Not in a position to speculate on the budget for the time being We won’t be passing any judgement on what UK chancellor said this week on fiscal policy and/or budget Some members, including me, do not have a confident view on an equilibrium terminal

Japan S&P Global Services PMI Final for October 2025 53.1 flash was 52.4 prior was 53.3 Composite 51.5 flash was 50.9 — Japan’s services sector continued to expand in October, marking a seventh straight month of growth, though momentum slowed as new business orders weakened and inflation pressures returned, according to the latest S&P Global

Trump’s tariff agenda is on trial at the Supreme Court, with arguments taking place today. In today’s session, several judges questioned the arguments of Trump’s team, suggesting that broad and national security tariffs overstep the language of the law he used; one that cites the ‘regulation’ of foreign trade. On that, North American automaker shares

The expectation is that they will maintain the bank rate at 4.00% this week, though the voting decision is a bit more varied. We are seeing analysts call it from anything between 5-4 to 7-2 in favour of keeping the bank rate on hold but there are a couple of outlier calls as well. Money

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.00% in November monetary policy meeting BOE governor Bailey: We are likely to continue gradual downward path on the bank rate China reportedly made purchases of two cargoes of US wheat for December shipment ECB’s de Guindos: Inflation news is positive US October Challenger layoffs 153.074k vs 54.064k

China bans foreign AI chips in state-funded data centres to boost domestic industry China prioritises yuan stability over exports as PBOC defends currency Annual ECB Conference on Money Markets begins in Frankfurt today, and continues tomorrow Japan, U.S. plan joint rare earth mining near Minamitori Island Goldman Sachs says Supreme Court likely to curb presidential

The five stats, what they mean, and what they do not mean 1) Balance What it is: Your account after all closed trades, deposits, and withdrawals. Open profits or losses are not inside Balance yet. In the example: 50,432.07 USD. What it does not mean: It is not your real buying power while you have

We need to see downward path of inflation become more established before cutting again Today’s decision is based on two key judgements The first being underlying domestic price and wage pressures are continuing to ease The other being the risk of greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced Latest data on inflation was encouraging but

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

U.S. Transportation Department expected to announce mandatory flight cuts at major US airports starting Friday if no shutdown deal is reached – Reuters citing sources U.S. Transportation Secretary expected to announce 10% cut of scheduled capacity at 40 major high traffic airports starting Friday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Snap shares rose after the company announced a $400 million partnership with AI start-up Perplexity to integrate its conversational search technology into Snapchat beginning in 2026. The deal, funded through a mix of cash and equity, was unveiled alongside stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings that lifted investor sentiment. Snap also said it will spin off development of

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has issued his starkest warning yet that the U.S. risks losing the artificial intelligence race to China, Axios reports. Speaking to the Financial Times (earlier headlines here) on the sidelines of an event in London, Huang said Beijing’s subsidies and pro-AI policies are outpacing Washington’s increasingly fragmented regulatory environment. Huang cautioned

The CaneToadium-WLCP Wildlife and Conservation Project has officially announced the global introduction of its blockchain-based endowment model and native token, CaneToad Coin ($CaneToad). Operating on the Solana blockchain, the initiative addresses systemic challenges in traditional charity funding by establishing a transparent infrastructure that channels resources directly to conservation initiatives. The model is designed to reduce

China appears to be prioritising currency stability and investor confidence over export competitiveness, signalling a policy tilt toward a stronger yuan despite pressure from a resurgent U.S. dollar. Via Reuters take on the currency. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reinforced that stance this week by raising its counter-cyclical adjustment factor when setting the daily

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. Yesterday, we got a couple of strong US data. The US

In the European session, we get a few low-tier releases like the construction PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. We have also the Swiss unemployment rate, although it’s not going to change anything for the SNB. The main highlight will be the BoE policy decision. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00%.

Goldman Sachs said the U.S. Supreme Court appears increasingly likely to rule against the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, following oral arguments that revealed skepticism among several justices about the president’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). ICYMI from earlier: The market is telling you how it sees arguments

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.2% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.2% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% It’s almost a similar profile to what we saw yesterday, with markets taking on a more cautious approach after the selloff earlier in the week. The turn in sentiment yesterday came when Wall Street entered the

Air traffic will be reduced by 10%, the cuts will include the 30 busiest US airports: affecting around 3,500 to 4,000 flights daily Reuters citing unnamed sources. Earlier: US Transport Secretary has warned that the air system is becoming riskier due to shut down US flight chaos worsens – further flights will be cut as

After the Tuesday drop, gold is seen picking itself back up again in the past few sessions as it nudges back to around $3,980-90 levels. That being said, the price momentum seems to be falling short of contesting the $4,000 mark. So, what gives? Looking at the near-term chart, we can see that the key

Fundamental Overview The USD has been stronger across the board since the hawkish turn from Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC press conference. The repricing in interest rate expectations acted as a tailwind for the greenback as Treasury yields continued to push higher. Yesterday, we got a couple of strong US data. The US

Prior 46.2 Ouch. German construction activity slumps further in October, falling at its quickest pace in seven months. Of note, housing activity remains the weakest by some margin with a further decline in commercial building while civil engineering activity also returned to contraction on the month. HCOB notes that: “This is a heavy blow for

Australian September trade balance comes a touch under expected at +3938mn expected 4,000mn, prior 1,825mn Exports jumped, +7.9% m/m, the quickest rise since April of 2022 prior 7.8% Imports slowed to +1.1% prior +3.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The shut down of the US government has meant air traffic controller shave been working without pay since October 1. Staffing shortages have been escalating. Earlier news: US flight chaos worsens – further flights will be cut as shut down continues Adding a little more, via Politico The Federal Aviation Administration said that it will

TD Securities expects the Bank of England to deliver a finely balanced 25-basis-point rate cut at its meeting today, with the vote likely to split 5–4. Analysts at the firm said policymakers will probably justify the move by citing persistently elevated inflation, signalling a more cautious approach to further easing than previously anticipated. TD noted

Morgan Stanley has raised its short-term oil price outlook following OPEC+’s move to pause production hikes in early 2026, a decision that eased fears of oversupply. The bank now forecasts Brent crude to average $60 a barrel in the first half of 2026, up from its previous estimate of $57.50. The revision reflects the view

Trump is scheduled to make an announcement on Thursday, November 6, 2025 at 1100 US Eastern time 1600 GMT Probably a distraction from the utter chaos at airports: The slashing of flight numbers in the US will include the 30 busiest airports This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OpenAI is seeking U.S. government support to help finance what could become one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in corporate history — exceeding $1 trillion. Speaking at a Wall Street Journal business conference, Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said the company is exploring federal loan guarantees to attract broader funding for its AI computing expansion,

There are plenty of central bankers with speaking slots booked, including: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank John Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Petra Tschudin, Member of the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank The full agenda is here: Programme This article was written by

It is being reported that China has made purchases of two cargoes for their December shipment, totaling to about 120,000 tons of US wheat. One of the cargo is US soft white wheat with the other being spring wheat. These will mark the first purchases of US wheat by China since October last year. So,

Japan plans to revise its foreign investment screening law in 2026 to sharpen national security oversight and close loopholes in the current framework. The update to the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA) will streamline reviews after filings surged since the 2019 threshold cut. The government may narrow IT-sector reviews to only critical cybersecurity

ICYMI – Reuters reports that China has ordered all state-funded data centres to use only domestically made AI chips, in a move likely to hit U.S. chipmakers including Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. The directive, issued in recent weeks, requires projects under 30% completion to remove or cancel purchases of foreign chips, while more advanced projects

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Macklem, in opening statement to the House of Commons: reiterated monetary policy’s effectiveness was limited in tackling structural changes from U.S. tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Trump has expressed hesitation about ordering military action to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, fearing strikes might fail to force him out, U.S. officials say. The discussions highlight an unsettled Venezuela strategy, even as the U.S. expands its military presence in the Caribbean following an anti-narcotics campaign that has evolved into open pressure on

Japan Innovation Party, the junior coalition partner in the government, co-leader Hidetaka Fujita said it would be premature for the Bank of Japan to deliver an early interest rate hike, warning that such a move could send a confusing signal to businesses. Fujita said this was “not the time for policy shifts that have a

The EURUSD sellers pushed the pair below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May low at 1.14919 yesterday. Although the price briefly moved back above that level during the Asian session (reaching 1.1497), the break was short-lived. The challenge today is that downside momentum has faded—the low reached just 1.1468, leaving the

Japanese automakers are increasingly turning India into a key production and export hub as they shift away from reliance on China. Toyota, Honda, and Suzuki are investing billions to expand factories and build new models in what is now the world’s third-largest car market. An interesting item via Reuters. Low production costs, government incentives, and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan and the United States plan to explore joint development of rare earth mining in the waters around Minamitori Island in the Pacific, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Thursday. Takaichi told parliament the issue was a key topic in her recent talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, part of broader efforts to strengthen resource

Trump is making a speech on the economy and said he expects Q3 GDP of 4.2%. We aren’t getting any numbers right now so it will be awhile before we get Q3 data. The real question right now is Q4, which is going to be poor given the government shutdown. This article was written by

Rabobank expects the Japanese yen to strengthen over the next few months as markets anticipate another Bank of Japan rate hike, a move that could ease pressure for official currency intervention. In a note to clients, senior FX strategist Jane Foley said the yen’s recent weakness against the U.S. dollar raises the risk that Japan’s

The major US stock indices are closing higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 0.65%. The gains only erase part of the sharp declines yesterday which saw the NASDAQ index fall -2.04% and the S&P fall -1.17% The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average +2 to 5.76 or 0.48%

NVIDEA CEO Huang says China will will win the AI race against the US. Says the FT: Jensen Huang has warned that China will beat the US in the artificial intelligence race, thanks to lower energy costs and looser regulations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the ninth straight month in September, underscoring the persistent squeeze on household purchasing power and complicating the Bank of Japan’s path toward further rate hikes. Government data showed real wages declined 1.4% year-on-year, following a revised 1.7% fall in August, as inflation once again outpaced nominal pay gains. Total

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is listed to speak. Anything of note from the Gov and I’ll get it posted. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number

ISM US October services PMI 52.4 vs 50.8 expected ADP October US employment +42K vs +28K expected Fed’s Miran: The ADP report was a welcome surprise US EIA weekly crude oil inventories +5202K vs +603K expected US October final S&P Global services PMI 54.8 vs 55.2 prelim Canada October S&P Global services PMI 50.5 vs

By all accounts, the Supreme Court appears poised to rein in the powers of the Executive Branch—though, of course, that remains to be seen with a decision sometime in 2026. How that ultimately plays out is uncertain, especially since Trump and his team may have additional strategies in reserve. What likely didn’t help Trump’s case

Shares of GM are up 3.1% today. Stellantis is up 4.8% and Ford is up 3.5%. That’s a big tell on how the Supreme Court arguments around tariffs are going. Chief Justice Roberts called them ‘taxes’ today. Another conservative — Gorsuch — voiced a warning of “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion

The price of crude oil has been confined in an up-and-down trading range over the last 7 or so trading days between a low of $59.64 and a high near $61.45. Those levels are within swing levels on either extreme, keeping buyers and sellers in play but unsure of the next break and run. That

European indices close higher on the day led by the UK’s FTSE 100 with a gain of 0.64%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.42% France’s CAC +0.08% UK’s FTSE 100, +0.64% Spain’s Ibex, +0.39% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.41% US indices are also higher with the NASDAQ index trading up 1.04% erasing

China will suspend 24% US tariffs for a year from November 10, to maintain 10% US tariffs ICYMI: Trump administration reportedly considers Venezuela strikes, oil-field seizures North Korea may be on the brink of an imminent nuclear test says South Korean intelligence Asian equity markets see their biggest losses in half a year MUFG lifts

Prior was -6858 Gasoline -4729K vs -1140K expected Distillates -643K vs -1969K expected This report is bearish. API inventory data from late yesterday: Crude +6500K Gasoline -5653K Distillates -2459K This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The bond market has been struggling to assess the economy due to the lack of economic data but today we got two reports: ADP employment at +42K vs +28K expected ISM services at 52.4 vs 50.8 expected As you can see, both were stronger and that has the market starting to believe Powell when he

The Treasury is out with its quarterly refunding announcement, the document that outlines how it will borrow in the coming quarter. The key line in the release is that it expects to keep coupon auction sizes steady “for at least the next several quarters”. That line is the early warning on ramping up Treasury auctions

Prior 54.3 Composite PMI 56.0 Prior 53.8 Spain’s services sector posts its fastest growth in 10 months amid a pick up in both activity and new business. Meanwhile, confidence in the outlook also strengthened- reaching a seven-month high. That said, input price inflation remained elevated despite dropping to a three-month low while selling prices were

Prior 48.5 Composite PMI 47.7 vs 46.8 prelim Prior 48.1 Despite the positive revision, it still marks a renewed downturn in France’s services sector with activity levels falling at its quickest pace since April. Some good news at least is that jobs growth held up while input price inflation saw its slowest increase in over

Warren Buffett’s name has become as legendary in the world of investing as Bruce Lee’s in martial arts. So it’s no surprise that millions of investors closely track every move in Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio, even if only after the fact, through documents such as Form 10-Q and Form 13F. However, in recent years, Buffett’s activity

PU Prime, a global multi-licensed online brokerage, has announced the successful expansion of its trading servers in Asia, reinforcing its commitment to providing a superior and seamless trading experience for clients across the region. The newly deployed servers, hosted on Amazon Web Services (AWS) infrastructure, significantly enhance latency, execution speed, and connection stability. During internal

US, China are important agriculture partners Hopes for US to foster environment that would be conducive for cooperation Well, China had pledged a commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by the end of January. That comes after of course having halted soybean purchases from the US just ahead of the meeting

RBNZ Governor Hawkesby: house prices and credit growth not raising red flags, can have more baseline mortgage loan-to-value ratio settings — Earlier: New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate rises to 5.3% (expected 5.3%, prior 5.2%) The New Zealand dollar had been soft heading into this jobs data, and showed a further dip in the aftermath that

The broader US stock indices are trading to new highs with the S&P up 0.52% or 35.79 points at 6806.25. The Nasdaq is up 178 points or 0.76% at 23557. The Dow is up as well but below its earlier highs for the day. For the S&P it did fall below the 100 hour MA

New Zealand data New Zealand’s labour market softened further in the September quarter, with unemployment up at 5.3%, matching expectations, as employment growth stalled and participation slipped. Seasonally adjusted employment was flat on the quarter (0.0% q/q, poll +0.1%, -0.1% in Q2), while the participation rate edged down to 70.3% from 70.5%. The data point

This is the first positive reading in the Canadian services PMI since last November, though it wasn’t exactly robust and the commentary in the report was poor: Latest prices data showed another round of steeply rising operating expenses, although competitive pressures meant the degree of cost pass through to clients remained relatively subdued. Suppliers were

Prelim was 55.2 September final reading was 54.2 Composite PMI 54.6 vs 54.8 prelim The ISM services index is due at the top of the hour, and there will be an extra focus on the employment component. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Job market trends pre-shutdown are still in place Job market data indicates interest rates could be lower than current levels Spoiler: He’s voting for 50 bps again because he’s a yes-man. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Senate minority leader Schumer and the House minority leader — both Democrats — are seeking a meeting to end the government shutdown. There might be some movement on the Republican side as Trump highlighted that the shutdown cost Republicans in elections yesterday, though he’s still banging the drum on ending the filibuster. At 1 pm

The Australian dollar eased after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy statement struck a neutral tone, disappointing investors who had anticipated a more hawkish message. According to TD Securities, the RBA’s balanced language “took some shine off the Aussie” as markets unwound modest long positions built ahead of the decision. TD noted the U.S.

How to Use Micro-Contracts to Take Partials With Small Accounts Many traders skip the first take profit because they only hold one contract. That undermines the plan. The first take profit is where we secure the trade by moving the stop to entry on the remainder. Micro-contracts solve this. Rule of thumb: 1 E-mini =

The USDCHF is trading at its high for the day (see the video above), pushing toward the top of a key swing area between 0.8102 and 0.8117. So far, the high has reached 0.8116, just shy of that upper boundary. A break above would open the door for a move toward 0.8147–0.8155, followed by the

The AUDUSD has experienced choppy, two-way volatility today — down, up, down, and back up again. In the early Asian session, the pair dipped below a swing-area target near 0.6463, but sellers couldn’t extend the move toward either the rising 200-day moving average at 0.6445 or the October low at 0.64398. The session low bottomed

U.S. yields are pushing to new highs after another round of stronger-than-expected data. The ISM non-manufacturing index beat forecasts, reinforcing the upbeat tone set earlier by a solid ADP employment report. Together, the data painted a picture of continued economic resilience and triggered fresh selling in Treasuries. The 10-year yield is now up 5.2 basis

The USDCAD is higher on the day and working on its sixth consecutive daily gain, as buyers continue to press their advantage. The move higher has extended beyond several key technical targets, underscoring the strength of the current momentum. The rally began after a failed break below the 50% midpoint at 1.3903, which triggered renewed

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That perhaps being for NZD/USD at the 0.5675 level. However, I wouldn’t attach much significance or impact to the expiries there with it not being tied to any key technical level. On top of that, the risk mood is

Villeroy is a known dove, so he will keep the door open for another rate cut. The recent data though, suggests that economic conditions not only are more than fine, but they are also improving.Therefore, the ECB is really well positioned at the moment and the next move can be either a cut or a

Such comments are not new at all as ECB members continue to repeat the same stuff over and over again. The ECB continues to keep the door open for another rate cut, but the bar was set high given that they also added that they will need a significant reason to cut and that small

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap presents a varied landscape, with significant movements across different sectors. While the semiconductor sector shows a mixed performance, the standout success story today is Tesla in the consumer cyclical sector, posting a significant gain of 1.56%. Technology: The tech sector experiences a minor pullback overall. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 0.45%,

Market index 332.3 vs 338.7 prior Purchase index 163.3 vs 164.3 prior Refinance index 1290.8 vs 1327.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.31% vs 6.30% prior This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was -32K (revised to -29K) Details Goods producing +9K vs -3K prior Service providing +33K vs -28K prior Trade/transportation/utilities +47K vs -7K prior Leisure/hospitality -6K vs -19K prior Median pay for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% prior Median pay for job changers 6.7% vs 6.6% prior The market started to feel better about jobs

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) third-quarter 2025 results. Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.20 per share, ahead of the $1.17 consensus estimate, as robust data-center and AI chip demand helped offset continued softness in PCs. Revenue rose 16% year-on-year to $9.25 billion, beating expectations of $8.74 billion. Adjusted operating income came in at

Eight month high Prior was 50.0 Details: Business activity 54.3 vs 49.9 prior Prices paid 70.0 vs. 69.4 last month — three year high Employment 48.2 vs. 47.2 last month New orders 56.2 vs. 50.4 last month — highest since Oct 2024 Supplier deliveries 50.8 vs. 52.6 last month Inventories 49.5 vs. 47.8 last month

US futures are down slightly, with tech shares being the laggard once again. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% but at least is seen a more controlled mood as compared the selling earlier in Asia trading. Futures were down as much as 0.8% earlier in the day. Meanwhile, Dow futures are up 0.1% but Nasdaq

After the slide on Wall Street on Tuesday regional equites here are feeling the heat. Nikkie 225 is down 5% from its record high hit on Tuesday In South Korea, KOSPI futures halted after a 5% slide. In brief: The ‘sidecar’ is a rule that lets the Korea Exchange (KRX, the operator of SK’s bourse)

The GBPUSD continues to move lower, extending its decline and breaking further away from the 38.2% retracement level of the rise from the January low to the July 2025 high, which comes in at 1.31422. The pair has now fallen to a new session low near 1.3018, putting the psychological 1.3000 level firmly in sight.

Prior 52.5 Composite PMI 53.1 vs 51.7 prior Full report here Key findings: Growth in new work accelerates, supported by fresh rise in exports Input cost inflation at four-and-a-half year low Job creation only fractional despite stronger rise in activity Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

Fundamental Overview After the big selloff, gold got stuck in a consolidation since last Tuesday despite a more hawkish than expected Fed Chair Powell. It might be a sign of a short-term bottom, but it could also be just some exhaustion after the 11% drawdown. There are no strong reasons for more upside at the

Headlines: Risk sentiment continues to hold more cautious in European morning trade Bitcoin holds the line at $100,000 for now as dip buyers try to make a stand US government shutdown set to be the longest one yet China stipulates that state-funded data centres to use only domestic AI chips – report Japan top currency

ANZ Commodity Price Index tracks prices received for New Zealand’s main export categories. The overall index has drifted lower since May, coinciding with the peak in dairy prices that month. However, compared to a year ago the index is still up 4.4%. The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 0.3% m/m in October: Dairy prices

The USD is little changed to start the North American session, with traders showing hesitation ahead of the next catalyst. The EURUSD remains confined within a tight 20-pip range — exceptionally narrow and indicative of a market waiting for a shove in either direction. In USDJPY, sellers made a push below the 200-hour moving average

Rating Dog / S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs from China for October 2025 Services PMI (Oct) 52.6 expected 52.5, prior 52.9 Composite 51.8 prior 52.5 China’s services activity expanded at its slowest pace in three months in October, as a drop in overseas orders offset stronger domestic demand, according to the latest private survey

If you ask any professional trader what his number one priority is, the answer would be “capital preservation”. The retail world is unfortunately 99% just marketing, so the focus is on gains as that is what sells the most. You should be focusing first and foremost on risk. The chart above shows you how much

North Korea may be on the brink of an imminent nuclear test says South Korean intelligence Info via media reports citing SK spy agency. Also, further reports NK is preparing to launch another spy satellite. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures -0.5% UK FTSE futures -0.1% German and French stocks were the laggards yesterday while Wall Street saw broader selling across the board, though tech shares were the ones leading the rout. The Nasdaq closed down by 2% with the likes of Nvidia sliding by nearly 4% and Palantir 8%. The selloff reverberated

There is some speculation in the market about Japan’s macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy Yen long positions have been shrinking after the summer We all agree that monetary policy itself is in the hands of the BOJ A bit of added verbal smackdown from Tokyo. This is becoming more frequent after Takaichi’s appointment as prime

Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.4% If you exclude the drop in energy prices (-0.2%) on the month, then overall producer prices in the euro area were stable in September. The added breakdown shows an increase in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.2%) and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is offset by a decline in prices

Canada’s federal government forecast larger budget deficits and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio over the coming years, even as total borrowing needs are set to ease slightly, according to the Finance Ministry’s fiscal update on Tuesday. Ottawa now expects a 2025/26 deficit of C$78.3 billion, almost double the C$42.2 billion projected in December, and a 2026/27

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The big topic on Wall Street is on Palantir and perhaps Nvidia, not withstanding the whole China issue after the meeting between Trump and Xi not bearing any fruit. That’s stirring up some nerves as evident with the risk selloff so far this week, in particular the one yesterday. It once again highlights the vulnerabilities

By Jonatan Randin, Market Analyst at PrimeXBT Despite stronger dollar momentum, gold remains technically constructive, consolidating near key Fibonacci levels. Meanwhile, gold’s relative performance against Bitcoin shows signs of strength, a familiar pattern during risk-off conditions. This market outlook explores gold’s behaviour against both the US dollar and Bitcoin, featuring XAU/BTC, one of the newly

Prior -0.8%; revised to -0.4% The pick up in new orders is helped by a boost in the automotive industry (+3.2%) and in the manufacture of electrical equipment (+9.5%) for September. That is offset by a decline in manufacture of metal products (-19.0%), following several large orders there in the month of August. Excluding large

Prior 51.3 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 52.2 prelim Prior 51.2 The euro area services sector is finding a resurgence in October, jumping up to its highest in 17 months. Meanwhile, the composite reading is also seen nudging up to its highest in 29 months. That comes amid a big boost in Germany in particular, but

Bitcoin Futures tradeCompass Map and Execution Plan (Nov 5, 2025) Summary Box (prices are for Bitcoin futures) Bullish above: 101,375 Bearish below: 100,665 Primary bias: Map driven. Prefer patient entries over chasing. Current price: 102,430 Bitcoin Market Context and Directional Bias Bitcoin Futures tested the 100,000 round number after a decline of about 22 percent

Prior 50.8 Final Composite PMI 52.2 vs 51.1 prelim Prior 50.1 Full report here Key findings: Business activity and new order growth accelerate since September Employment close to stabilisation Input price inflation at 11-month low Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The latest survey offered some positive signals for the

China will suspend 24% US tariffs for a year from November 10, to maintain 10% US tariffs. This is a risk positive announcement. A dialing back of trade tensions,. At least for now. China’s Finance Ministry with the announcement. The Ministry of Commerce also announce that China will remove some tariffs on some US agricultural

That ties the period in 2018-19 and is on track to enter its 36th day, which will mark the longest federal government shutdown in US history. The stalemate now begins to threaten some economic costs to the US and with regards to the Fed, this continues with the lack of key major economic releases as

Top Wall Street executives cautioned that U.S. equities may be nearing a correction, with both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEOs warning that markets are running hot and vulnerable to sentiment shifts. At the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said investors should brace for a 10% to

IBM announced it will lay off a small percentage of its global workforce in the fourth quarter — described as a “low single-digit percentage”, likely around 1% (≈2,700 jobs). The company emphasized that U.S. employment will remain flat year over year, suggesting most cuts will occur internationally. The move aligns with broader industry trends as

In the European session, we have several low tier releases on the agenda including the French Industrial Production, the Italian Retail Sales, the Eurozone PPI and the final services PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. In the American

Prior -0.1% Retail sales Y/Y +0.5% vs +0.5% prior This is not a market-moving release. The agency notes: “Compared with September 2024, retail sales grew by 0.4% in large-scale distribution. Non-store sales rose by 1.9%, while online sales was up 7.3% over the same period. Small-scale retail declined by 0.4%.” “Among non-food products, year-on-year trends

Decision Desk HQ projects Zohran Mamdani to win the New York City Mayor election. Trump has threatened to end funding to New York if this was the result. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.5% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.5% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.5% Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% The risk appetite has picked up since the depths of Asia trading, with S&P 500 futures also trimming losses to just 0.1% on the day. For some context, they were down as much as 0.8% at