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People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate […]

China has quietly issued its first rare earth mining and smelting quotas for 2025 without the usual public announcement, according to sources familiar with the matter — a move seen as part of Beijing’s efforts to tighten control over the strategically vital sector. The rare earth quota system is a key tool used by China,

The Singapore dollar is under renewed pressure as U.S. trade tensions escalate and expectations grow that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may ease its exchange-rate policy to support the economy. SGD has been weakening alongside a rebounding U.S. dollar and now faces fresh risks from potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — two

The UK government has announced that the first wave of self-driving taxis, private hire vehicles, and bus-like services will be permitted on public roads from spring 2026. This move is part of the country’s broader strategy to position itself as a global leader in autonomous vehicle technology, following the recent passage of the Automated Vehicles

Asking prices for newly listed UK homes fell 1.2% in July, the sharpest drop for that month in over 20 years. Sellers are pricing more competitively amid high inventory levels and increased buyer sensitivity to overpricing. Rightmove cut its 2025 price growth forecast to 2% from 4%, despite sales running 5% above 2024 levels. Falling

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Sun: Japanese Upper House Election Mon: PBoC LPR; Canadian PPI (Jun), US Leading Index (Jun), New Zealand Trade (Jun), UK CBI (Jul) Tue: UK PSNB (Jun), US Richmond Fed (Jul) Wed: EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul) Thu: ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements; EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Jul), US Weekly Claims, National Activity Index

Is the dollar let out of the dog house just yet? Well, not exactly. The latest recovery in the greenback in the past two weeks comes as Trump is threatening tariffs once again. It’s a more moderate version of Liberation Day one might say, with TACO trades seemingly fully priced in before this. So, what’s

NASDAQ closes the day higher and closes at record levels each day this week What key events the releases are scheduled for next week’s trading? California Gov. Newson proposes to ease permits for oil drilling in California Fed’s Goolsbee: Need some resolution on tariffs ot understand impact on inflation Trump signs GENIUS Act (Guiding and

The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) is the first comprehensive federal law to regulate U.S. dollar–backed stablecoins. It outlines clear rules for who can issue stablecoins, how they must be backed, and what compliance standards they must meet. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable

After the Financial Times reported that Pres. Trump is pushing for a 15 – 20% tariff on all the EU goods and looks to keep 25% tariff on autos, the US stocks have tilted to the downside. Dow industrial average -0.55% S&P index -0.18% NASDAQ index 0.16% Russell 2000-0.64% Both the S&P and the NASDAQ

Fed’s Goolsbee is getting another word in before the quiet period: New Round of tariffs to apply to parts, copper, and revisiting Europe, Canada tariffs doesn’t help Need some resolution on tariffs to understand impact on inflation.. Drip Drip announcements on tariffs means can’t make the argument tariffs mean a one-time increase in price level.

The earnings season heats up a little more next week. The bigger names, like Amazon, Apple, Meta or still a week or so away but Tesla and Alphabet will highlight some of the releases next week. Below is a list of the key earnings: Monday 7/21 – Before Open: Verizon (VZ), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Monday 7/21 – After Close: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Tuesday 7/22 – Before Open: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Coca‑Cola (KO),

Next week, the Fed will be in the quiet period ahead of the FOMC rate meeting on July 30. The S&P Global flash manufacturing and services data will be released for Europe and the US on Thursday. The ECB will likely keep rates unchanged, but given the tariff threat, will likely be biased to more

California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposes to ease permits for oil drilling in California. Governor Gavin Newsom has not supported new drilling, but is also under pressure to stabilize energy supplies, particularly after recent refinery closure announcements. While he remains committed to phasing out oil drilling by 2045, state regulators have recommended limited new well permitting

Oil rigs -2 to 422 Gas rigs +9 to 117 Total rigs +7 at 544 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is closing the day higher and has closed at record levels each day of this week. The gain however, was marginal with a rise of only 0.05%. Nevertheless, it was good enough for a record. The NASDAQ has closed at a record level 11 different times this year. The index rose 11.39

That is an absolutely staggering number if you think about it. And as the world continues to embrace the AI-driven future, Nvidia is now the poster boy not only for that revolution but also for the stock market. After its struggles in the first four months this year in the run up to Trump’s Liberation

The Wall Street Journal have a piece up on the data from Japan earleir. Data is here: Japan June 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, still The Journal is gated, but in brief: Japan’s core consumer inflation slowed to 3.3% year-over-year in June, down from 3.7% in May and in

The Wall Street Journal has published an article that is not going to make the White House happy. From the article (gated): The letter bearing Trump’s name, which was reviewed by the Journal, is bawdy—like others in the album. It contains several lines of typewritten text framed by the outline of a naked woman, which

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speech. Waller signalled support for a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming July meeting, citing increased downside risks to the economy and growing signs of labour market weakness. He warned against waiting for a sharper deterioration in employment before acting, arguing that delaying could require more aggressive policy moves later.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller Q&A Lots of uncertainty around long-term Fed funds rate; 3% seems right Long-term bond yields don’t suggest loose financial conditions No one from the Trump administration has talked to him about taking the Fed chair Cut rates in July and then adjust policy meeting by meeting Stablecoins introduce competition into

All three of the main inflation measures in Japan remain well above the 2% Bank of Japan target rate Headline CPI 3.3% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.5% Core CPI (this is excluding fresh food) 3.3% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.7% analysts are attributing the drop from May on temporary cuts in utility bills and the

Japan holds upper house elections on Sunday, July 20, in a key mid-term test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling LDP–Komeito coalition. The vote will decide 124 of 248 seats and follows last year’s lower house setback for the government. Recent polling suggests the LDP may lose its upper house majority, adding political instability to

Canada’s international trade minister says they are working to get officials talking to their Chinese counterparts as soon as possible to address trade challenges Says the agreement to bring back the Indian high commissioner will be an important step for dialogue and supporting trade as it grows Says there is appetite from both sides to

The U.S. House of Representatives approved three major cryptocurrency bills on Thursday, signaling a significant step forward for the digital asset sector. The GENIUS Act, which sets rules for stablecoins, passed with a 308-122 vote and now goes to President Trump. The CLARITY Act, aimed at defining the broader structure of crypto markets, passed 294-134

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan June 2025 trade data Imports +0.2% year/year expected -1.6%, prior -7.7% Exports -0.5% year/year expected +0.5%, prior -1.7% exports drop for the second month in a row Trade balance +153.1 bln yen expected 353.9bn yen, prior -638.6bn yen Exports To U.S. -11.4% year/year To China -4.7% year/year To Asia +1.7% year/year To EU +3.6%

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump spoke in an interview following his disruptive statements on Wednesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul:The near firing/unfiring of Powell unsettle markets Trump said he would love for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign but that it would disrupt the markets if the president were to remove him. Trump made the comments

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on Wednesday reaffirmed the importance of central bank independence and the enduring role of the U.S. dollar, while declining to comment on President Trump’s recent criticisms of the Fed. Speaking to reporters, Williams sidestepped questions about reports suggesting President Trump was considering firing Fed Chair Jerome

Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard has withdrawn its $47 billion takeover bid for Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, citing delays and a lack of constructive engagement. The move ends a year-long effort to acquire the 7-Eleven parent and highlights broader questions about Japan’s openness to foreign takeovers. Couche-Tard had raised its offer multiple times and proposed

Wall Street Journal reporting (gated). In brief: Some Trump administration officials are delaying a major deal that would allow the United Arab Emirates to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of advanced AI chips from Nvidia, citing national security concerns. Although Trump backed the agreement during his May visit to the Middle East and both sides

UBS have raised their euro forecasts: EUR/USD projected to $1.23 by June 2026 (previous forecast for June ’26 was 1.2) $1.21 at the end of 2025 (with previous forecast 1.16) Citing the euro will be the key alternative for global investors seeking to diversify away from the U.S. dollar: euro stands out as the ‘default’

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on what he believes is a reasonable estimate of the neutral rate of interest. Seems very low … More: Neutral rate levels haven’t really changed much in a while Acknowledges economists see slower growth outlook relative to traders, investors and markets Financial conditions are pretty supportive

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams keynote speech before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series. Q&A now. Inflation has moderated unevenly, in part due to housing-related factors. Without tariffs, inflation would be closing in on 2%. It’s not surprising that tariff impacts have been growing. Not surprised

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports jumped 13.0% year-on-year in June, far exceeding the 5.0% rise forecast in a Reuters poll follows a 3.9% decline in May Over the first half of 2025, non-oil exports rose 5.2% year-on-year. Driven by strong gains in shipments of PCs (+53.8%), integrated circuits (+17.5%), and non-monetary gold (+211.9%). Exports rose to

US starts Section 301 tariff probe on Brazil’s trade practices: due to its “continued attacks on the Digital Trade activities of American Companies”. Last week Trump announced a 50% tariff rate for Brazil. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: A lot of uncertainty about tariff pass-through to consumers Many companies want to wait and see how tariffs are settled before they pass on higher prices to consumers We’ll be looking at the data in summer, into fall before we have a good read Fed builds its credibility by explaining

Ethereum has risen to a more than five-month high above $3,138. Ethereum’s price gains are being driven by a powerful mix of regulatory clarity, institutional interest, technical progress, and its expanding role in stablecoins and DeFi. More: Stablecoin growth & regulation tailwinds: Ethereum provides the infrastructure for nearly half of all stablecoins. The GENIUS Act

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remarks at a World Affairs Council event in San Antonio. Base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation down Want to see low inflation continue longer to be convinced June CPI data suggests PCE inflation, which the Fed targets at 2%,

10-year US Treasury yield rises to a one-month high of 4.495% — I posted earlier on the worries facing Asia traders as they filter in to the office: Asian markets will wake up to a troubling picture on Wednesday – risks all over the place Higher US yields on of them. Not showing that 4.495

China foreign minister: SCO Tianjin summit to be held from August 31 to September 1 Leaders of more than 20 countries and heads of 10 international organizations expected to attend summit — China is hosting the 25th SCO Heads-of-State Summit this autumn (late August to June 25–26) in Tianjin as part of its 2024–2025 chairmanship.

China commerce ministry: China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation and review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says Powell renovations ‘sort of is’ a fireable offense. Earlier: Trump: Bessent an option to replace Fed chair but I like the job he’s doing at Treasury This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump posts on his social media app that he has secured the necessary votes. The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) is a bipartisan 2025 bill that would create the first federal regulatory framework for U.S.-dollar–pegged stablecoins—mandating strict reserve backing, regular audits, and clear oversight to protect consumers and stabilize

USD/JPY is sitting just shy of 147.90 as I post. Recent highs are arojund here from late June, and mid-May before that. I am wondering when the Bank of Japan and Japanese government will begin to worry about the yen weakness nough to try verybal intervention? 150 is a big round number, probably just before

Australia July Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence 93.1 up from June’s 92.6 WPAC comments, in summary: optimism remained muted after the Reserve Bank unexpectedly held interest rates steady at 3.85% sentiment was stronger before the RBA decision but dipped afterward, reflecting lingering caution views on family finances improved longer-term economic confidence softened willingness to make major

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi has escalated his warning on the U.S. housing market, shifting from a “yellow flare” to a “red flare” as conditions continue to deteriorate under the weight of high mortgage rates. In a series of posts on social media platform Twitter, Zandi outlined how persistently elevated mortgage rates—hovering near 7%—are exerting

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan and the European Union plan to issue a joint statement aimed at deepening their economic partnership, with a particular focus on trade, advanced technology, and greater supply chain coordination, the Yomiuri newspaper reported. The move comes as both sides seek to enhance economic resilience amid rising global geopolitical tensions and disruptions. This article was

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has asked the central bank’s inspector general to conduct a fresh review of the Fed’s building renovation project, according to a letter sent to Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, Politico reported Monday. Powell said the inspector general already has full access to the project’s details and

UBS Wealth Management on the latest tariffs threat from Trump: Sees White House tariff escalation as a negotiation tactic; expects eventual de-escalation. Base case: U.S. effective tariff rate to settle near 15%, allowing S&P 500 to keep rising. Believes a U.S.-EU trade deal is likely before August 1, or the deadline will be extended. Acknowledges

Japanese government bond (JGB) investors are on edge ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections, fearing a political shake-up that could accelerate fiscal spending and drive super-long bond yields higher. Reuters with the piece, in brief: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s declining approval ratings have cast doubt on his coalition’s ability to retain a majority. A

UK retail sales rose sharply in June, driven by warmer weather and seasonal demand, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC): Total sales climbed 3.1% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in May while like-for-like sales rose 2.7% (+0.6% in May). The BRC credited the heatwave and events like Wimbledon for boosting demand for fans, summer clothing,

In Summary from the Wall Street Journal (gated): The European Union has completed a second list of potential counter-tariffs on U.S. goods valued at €72 billion (US$84 billion), amid rising trade tensions. The list, drafted by the European Commission, targets items such as Boeing aircraft, cars, bourbon, machinery, chemicals, plastics, medical devices, and various agricultural

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales June 2025. Card Spending Retail: +0.5% m/m prior –0.1% -0.4% y/y prior -0.1% Card Spending Total: -0.2% m/m prior +0.3% The electronic cards data covers about 68 percent of core retail sales in the country, and is the main measure of monthly retail activity. This article was written by

US futures have begun trading on Globex for the new week. The big weekend news was Trump’s tariffs: Trump hits the European Union (EU) with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1 Since then: Germanys Merz will work closely with Macron, von der Leyen to resolve trade ahead of Aug 1 EU extends pause on

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Via Reuters on Invesco Report: Key Trends Among Sovereign Wealth Funds and Central Banks. I trimmed it back to the main info. Active Management Rising: Large sovereign wealth funds are shifting from passive to active strategies due to market unpredictability. China Exposure Growing: Nearly 60% of wealth funds plan to boost investments in China over

Japan data, Core Machinery Orders for May 2025 +4.4% y/y expected +3.4%, prior +6.6% -0.6% m/m expected -1.4%, prior -9.1% These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Singapore Gross Domestic Product Q2 2025, preliminary +1.4% q/q expected +0.7%, prior -0.5% +4.3% y/y expected +3.5%, prior +3.9% more to come Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in Q2 according the trade ministry GDP data. avoiding a recession after the first quarter’s revised 0.5% contraction SGD pop: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Trump speaking, vague remarks about the European Union and South Korea in discussions with the US re trade. Over the weekend, ICYMI: Trump hits the European Union (EU) with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1 Then: Germanys Merz will work closely with Macron, von der Leyen to resolve trade ahead of Aug 1 EU

Elon Musk said Tesla will put the question of investing in his AI start-up xAI to a shareholder vote, following reports that SpaceX may commit $2 billion to the company behind the Grok chatbot. Responding to a question on social media about a potential Tesla investment, Musk clarified that the choice isn’t his to make:

more to comeNew Zealand’s services sector fifth consecutive month of contraction. BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for June was 47.3 3.2 points up from May below the average of 52.9 over the history of the survey BusinessNZ’s CEO, Katherine Rich: most of the sub-index results higher than the previous month sector has

China’s economy likely grew slightly above the government’s annual target in the second quarter according to the Bloomberg survey of analyst expectations. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: Bloomberg’s survey forecasting a 5.1% year-on-year GDP increase for the quarter ending in June Growth was supported by strong export performance, aided by a trade truce with

Trump hits the European Union (EU) and Mexico with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1, and more if they retaliate. Trump announced a new round of tariffs on his Truth social media app 30% blanket levy on all imports from both the European Union (EU) and Mexico, effective August 1 follows the breakdown of

Canada CPI – Tuesday, July 15 at 8:30am ET Canada’s inflation data will be closely watched, with headline CPI m/m expected at 0.2%, down from 0.6% previously. Both Median and Trimmed CPI y/y are forecast to remain steady at 3.0%, signaling a still-elevated but stable inflation environment. A softer print could strengthen the case for

Crude oil futures settled at $68.45, up $1.88 or 2.82% on the day. For the week, prices gained $2.13, marking a 3.2% increase. These gains come despite an unexpected rise in OPEC+ production of 548K barrels heading into the week. However, some support emerged midweek when OPEC+ floated the idea of pausing upcoming output hikes,

Major US stock indices are closing the day lower. For the trading week the declines today push the indices into negative territory. For the day: Dow industrial average fell -279.13 or -0.63% at 44371.51 S&P index fell -20.71 points or -0.33% at 6259.75. NASDAQ index fell -45.14 points or -0.22% at 20585.53. The small-cap Russell

MUFG is out with its trade of the week and highlights EUR/GBP, which is trading at 0.8650 at the moment. “We are recommending a long EUR/GBP trade idea to reflect our view that downside risks for the GBP are increasing. We have been encouraged by price action over the past week. EUR/GBP has held above

Over at Kalshi, where you could move this market with a couple thousand bucks, the odds of Powell resigning have risen to about 19% from 14% on this bizarre letter from William Pulte at the FHFA. In it, he cites ‘reports’ about Powell considering resigning but neither me nor anyone else can seem to find

This is strange statement as it indicates there are ‘reports’ that Powell is considering resigning. But there are no reports that I can find. Bizarrely, Pulte has been tweeting forever that Powell should resign and also foreshadowed this statement, even though it’s presumably based on ‘reports’. I’m not sure what to make of this but

MUFG notes that Q1 2025 COFER data revealed large reserve manager selling of the Japanese yen and Australian dollar, while Swiss franc holdings surged. Despite some caution on the euro, a recent OMFIF survey points to improving sentiment that could support EUR demand. Key Points: USD Holdings Steady: The global USD share of FX reserves

Prior was -316.0B Last June was -69B Outlays $499 billion Receipts $526 billion Customs duties $27 billion This is a pleasant surprise but comes after a huge deficit month. It’s always tough to draw trends from individual months because holidays and two-week pay periods shift around. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If we get a few more months of excellent inflation reports, that would persuade me we’re still on golden path Want to wait until the anxiety dies down before comfortable that US is back on track to a soft landing If we’re going to an environment where prices start rising again, I’ll be nervous New

Canada May employment change +83.1K vs 0.0K expected Canada building permits for May 12.0% versus -0.8% estimate Fed’s Goolsbee: Latest tariff threat could delay rate cuts US June federal budget budget +27 billion vs -11.0 billion expected Brazil’s Lula: If US tariffs take effect, we will reciprocate Trump says “we will see” on Canada tariff

Trump has hit Canada with a 35% tariff rate: up from the current two-tiered rate of 10% and 25% letter does not specify whether current exclusions for USMCA-compliant trade will be extended separate from sectoral levies may lower rate if Canada works with US on stopping fentanyl rate may move up ro down depending on

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). Still in contraction at 48.8 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining) up from 47.4 in May The long run average for the survey is 52.5. BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: manufacturers struggling to see expansion in

HSBC economists say that the European Central Bank is likely to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, even though the euro’s recent strength could push inflation below the ECB’s 2% target, citing: due to the delayed effects of monetary policy, the ECB may choose to overlook short-term currency fluctuations while the euro has risen sharply

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Discover a proven breakout trading system that has profited through bull and bear markets The post Breakout Trading Secrets: This Trading System Has Generated 5,176% Over The Last 30 Years appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Trump letter 35% tariff on Canada. CAD collapsing: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, at the dovish end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) spectrum, with not very dovish remarks, he is clearly in the ‘wait and see’ camp: Before April 2 Liberation Day tariffs the hard data on the economy was looking solid Since then there has been potential

The US inflation report, CPI, is due on Tuesday July 15 at 8.30 am US Eastern time, which is 1230 GMT. TD Securities are with the consensus, forecating m/m core to be up 0.3%, this highest since 0.4% in January: “we look for goods prices to gather steam in June, reflecting some tariff passthrough” “we

Trump tells NBC News about tariffs: “Not everybody has to get a letter. You know that. We’re just setting our tariffs,” “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%” Trump tells NBC News about tariffs that EU, Canada would receive letters notifying them of

The news: Trump letter 35% tariff on Canada. Trump has hit Canada very nard with a 35% tariff rate. Trump says will send tariff letters informing EU, Canada of the rates by Friday Trump’s letter to Canada – The Canada dollar has fallen sharply with Trump’s 35% tariff rate on the country The US dollar

Earlier: Trump letter 35% tariff on Canada. Trump has hit Canada very nard with a 35% tariff rate. Trump says will send tariff letters informing EU, Canada of the rates by Friday Trump’s letter to Canada – The Canada dollar has fallen sharply with Trump’s 35% tariff rate on the country The USD has jumped

Japan is seeking ministerial-level tariff talks with the U.S. ahead of the August 1 deadline for new 25% U.S. tariffs on Japanese imports. Tokyo hopes to arrange meetings between its chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during Bessent’s visit to Japan for the World Expo on July 19. Japan also aims

Trump hits Sri Lanka with a 30% tariff. The United States and Sri Lanka maintain a significant trade relationship, with total bilateral trade reaching approximately $3.4 billion in 2024. The U.S. imported about $3.0 billion worth of goods from Sri Lanka, while exporting $368.2 million to the island nation, resulting in a trade deficit of

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump “announcing a 50% TARIFF on Copper, effective August 1, 2025” after a national security assessment Trump wants the tariff to incentivise building a copper industry. Its going to be difficult for the US to just flick a switch and open copper mines and refining: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, prices

Japan June PPI +2.9% y/y expected +2.9%, prior +3.2% -0.2% m/m expected -0.2%, prior -0.2% AKA Corporate Goods Price Index. It’s a measure of Japanese wholesale prices. It shows the price companies charge each other for their goods and services. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced on Thursday a significant step forward in developing a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC), launching “Project Acacia” in collaboration with industry partners. The initiative will test 19 pilot programs using real money and assets for the first time, alongside five proof-of-concept trials involving simulated transactions. The trials

UBS has revised its USD/JPY Q3 forecast higher to 140 from 135, citing continued dollar resilience and a cautious Bank of Japan policy backdrop. The bank notes that a test of the 200-day moving average near 150 cannot be ruled out in the near term, particularly if U.S. Treasury yields remain firm. UBS also flags

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance June 2025 comes in at -7% expected -9%, prior –7% A tax hike on property transactions in April precipitated a downturn in the UK property market, not unexpectedly. The impact is diminishing. RICS mention: new buyer enquiries turned positive for first time since December agreed sales

Rabobank forecast EUR/USD to 1.2 in 12 months see a dip in the near term, 1 to 3 months warn that officials at the European Central Bank could increase talk to weigh on the euro says that the German economy is expected to remain soft in 2025, a stronger euro and higher US tariffs will

South Korea’s central bank held interest rates steady at its just concluded meet today. at 2.5% as expected Bank of Korea concerned about financial stability risks stemming from rising household debt and economic pressure from U.S. tariffs The Bank of Korea’s has a seven-member monetary policy board Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference

Physically backed gold ETFs attracted $38 billion in inflows during the first half of 2025—the biggest semi-annual increase since early 2020, according to the World Gold Council. The surge was driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid renewed geopolitical and economic uncertainty linked to Trump’s tariff-driven trade war. ETF holdings rose by 397.1 metric

What Trump just tweeted really makes no sense. We will be releasing a minimum of 7 Countries having to do with trade, tomorrow morning, with an additional number of Countries being released in the afternoon. Thank you for your attention to this matter! Releasing countries? What? Anyway, I translated it as releasing tariff info for

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s speech “What Has Australian Macroeconomic Thought Achieved in the Past Century – and Where Can it Contribute in the Next?” at the Australian Conference of Economists begins soon. That live link in the RBA tweet below leads nowhere. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Nissan has paused production of three vehicle models destined for Canada due to reciprocal auto tariffs between the U.S. and Canada, according to a report from Nikkei on Wednesday. The suspension, which started in May, impacts the Pathfinder and Murano SUVs built in Tennessee and the Frontier pickup trucks assembled in Mississippi. This article was

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is speaking: “What Has Australian Macroeconomic Thought Achieved in the Past Century – and Where Can it Contribute in the Next?” Topic is at the Australian Conference of Economists Hauser: RBA refreshing its research strategy, with new set of priorities RBA to expand research with external, academic

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser: Enormous amount of uncertainty in global economy Very surprising how markets are shrugging and moving on Effects of tariffs on global economy are profound, to drag on growth First round impacts of tariffs on Australia look minor Its still in the early days, but the worst trade

Report coming in: Citi expects official confirmation of a 50% rate by US on copper in weeks Citi expects implementation within 30 days Earlier: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, prices jump From that post: US needs imported copper and will need much more in order to build out the needed investments

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. has already collected around $100 billion in tariff revenue this year and could see that total surge to $300 billion by the end of 2025, driven by Trump’s escalating trade measures. speaking at a White House cabinet meeting noted that the bulk of new tariff income only began

Citi expects the United States to confirm a 50% copper import tariff under Section 232 within weeks implementation expected within 30 days bank revised its base case for the tariff, projecting the COMEX-LME arbitrage to price at 25-35% of London Metal Exchange levels, or $2,300-$3,300 per tonne, compared to its earlier forecast of 15-20%. “This

Goldman Sachs raises 3-, 6-, and 12-month S&P 500 return forecasts to +3% (6400), +6% (6600), and +11% (6900) Citing: expectations of earlier and deeper U.S. interest rate cuts continued fundamental strength of the largest stocks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says may adjust tariffs for some countries. Earlier: Trump says August 1 tariff deadline is firm, but he is open to other ideas So, August 1 is not firm This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says August 1 tariff deadline is firm, but he is open to other ideas. Trump also addressing other matters: we have scheduled Iran talks Iran will not be a nuclear state I hope we don’t have to do another strike on Iran ps. Netanyahu nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize This article was

Trump: “We are going to have to send more weapons to Ukraine. Defensive weapons. They have to defend themselves” Earlier on Trump’s comments expressed dissatisfaction with Putin: “I’m not happy with President Putin at all,” “If I can stop a war, you know, because I have an ability to do so…I’m disappointed, frankly, that President

A sustained recovery in the U.S. dollar remains unlikely for now, according to FX research at HSBC. for sentiment to shift meaningfully, the dollar would need to reassert its positive response to the U.S. yield advantage — both nominal and real — over other major currencies. however, that relationship has broken down in 2025, with

HSBC says large surplus after summer raises downside risk to its $65/B Brent forecast from 4Q 2025 now assume another 550kbd hike for September summer demand in Northern Hemisphere and in the Middle East (for power generation) is absorbing extra OPEC+ barrels for now This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

From last week: Goldman Sachs brings forward Fed rate cut forecast to September, from December Goldman Sachs moves its next Fed rate cut from December to September Goldman Sachs have pumped out more on this call. The firm expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates three months earlier than previously forecast, the shift

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

more to come Politico with the report, in brief: U.S. has offered the European Union a trade proposal that would apply a 10% baseline tariff on EU goods, while granting exceptions for certain sensitive sectors like aircraft and spirits, according to EU officials. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been in contact with U.S. officials

Japan PM Ishiba: Haven’t been able to reach agreement because Japan kept defending what needs to be defended Will continue dialogue with U.S., seek chance of agreeing on deal that benefits both countries As a result of past negotiations with U.S., we were able to avert hike in tariffs to 30–35% US has proposed to

Makhlouf said the euro cannot yet replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency Irish central bank chief and ECB governing council member Gabriel Makhlouf was speaking at a conference in France over the weekend. Makhlouf cited Europe’s unfinished economic and financial integration. said that while dollar dominance may decline over time, Europe

Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, held two rounds of intensive phone talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Thursday, then again on Saturday Ahead of the July 9 expiration of a pause on a potential 24% reciprocal tariff on Japanese imports. Trump has hinted the final rate could be even higher Despite ongoing efforts

Japan wages data, May 2025 real wages dropped 2.9% year-on-year in May, the sharpest fall in nearly two years, the fifth consecutive monthly decline in inflation-adjusted wages nominal wages rose 1.0% (expected +2.4%, prior +2.0%), the slowest pace since March 2024, the decline was largely due to an 18.7% drop in special (bonus) payments regular

Oil prices fell just over 1% at the Globex open on Sunday evening US time after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected increase in output for August, consolidating a strategic shift to regain market share The alliance of oil-producing nations said it would boost production by 548,000 barrels per day, a sharp rise from the previously planned

Prime Minister Mark Carney said a new oil pipeline to British Columbia’s coast is very likely to be designated a nationally significant project citing the scale of the economic opportunity and Canada’s resource strengths Carney was speaking from the Calgary Stampede in an interview with the Calgary Herald emphasised that such initiatives should come from

The Financial Times have the report: China reroutes exports via south-east Asia in bid to dodge Trump’s tariffs The FT is gated. It’s a detailed article, worth a read if you can access it. In (very) brief: Data suggests Chinese companies are increasingly diverting exports through Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs direct shipments from

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

On Monday China released a plan outlining 14 specific tasks to promote the quality and expansion of the country’s domestic service industry and help promote rural revitalization. I’m awaiting details on this, I haven’t seen any yet. The reports of the plan were announced on state broadcaster CCTV without any more info. This article was

Markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate on Tuesday Reuters poll: 31 of 37 economists expect cut to RBA cash rate by 25bp The statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia is due on July 8 at 2.30pm Sydney time: 0430 GMT 1230 US Eastern time As you can

The news from the weekend from OPEC+ meeting, raising oil output more than expected: OPEC+ to raise output by 548,000 bpd in August vs 411,000 bpd in July In effect, the decision returns nearly 80% of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts from eight OPEC producers back in the market actual output increase has been

OPEC+ will raise oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. This is faster than expected. OPEC+ had previously announced increases of 411,000 barrels per day for each month of May, June and July, and this was the increase expected to be announced at Saturday’s meeting. OPEC+ cited: steady global economic outlook current healthy

There’s basically nothing on the agenda today other than the Canadian Services PMI. The newsflow has been very limited and the price action in markets has been mostly rangebound. The NFP spikes have mostly been erased both in FX and US equity indices. The White House today is expected to begin sending letters to trade

Get some good rest with this long weekend because next week we have some important events that could potentially trigger big moves in the markets. The focus will be on Trump’s letters with the new tariff rates and the US CPI. I think the CPI will be more important given that Trump put August 1st

Composite PMI 44.0 vs 45.5 prior Key findings: Lack of new business weighs on activity Costs and selling prices rise at greater rates Confidence in outlook remains subdued Comment: Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Canada’s services economy remained deep inside contraction territory during June, as uncertainty caused in the main

Credit Agricole highlights that renewed political and fiscal risks are weighing heavily on the GBP, with echoes of the traumatic September 2022 gilt crisis continuing to shape investor sentiment. Uncertainty over UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ future and the Government’s fiscal credibility is keeping GBP vulnerable. Key Points: Fiscal Austerity and Policy U-Turns:• Investors remain concerned

India is proposing retaliatory duties at WTO against US tariffs on auto parts. They say 25% import tariff on vehicles and some auto parts by US amounts to safeguard measures. India reserves the right to suspend concessions and other obligations equivalent to the adverse effects of US measures on India’s trade. India reserves the right

Inflation expectations are well anchored. ECB must be more agile when using forward guidance. These are just token remarks and the ECB has been more inclined to give potential scenarios rather than clear forward guidance lately due to uncertainty. The market is fully pricing one last 25 bps cut, possibly in December unless another surge

Headlines: Traders pare back their dovish bets on the Fed after the positive NFP report Trump says countries have to start paying tariffs on 1 August More on Trump saying he’ll begin sending tariff letters on Friday China issues final ruling on EU brandy probe, to impose duties up to 34.9% OPEC+ meeting has been

Reuters reports that the OPEC+ meeting has been moved to Saturday 5th of July due to Ashura holiday. The group has been steadily adding back oil output since April and it’s expected to deliver another 411,000 output hike for August. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ Futures Technical Analysis – July 4, 2025 Published by InvestingLive.com, the upcoming evolution of ForexLive What is the current trend in NASDAQ futures? As the above Nasdaq Futures Technical Analysis video of today shows, as of July 4, 2025, NASDAQ futures are showing signs of a short-term pullback after a strong upward breakout. On

US stock market sentiment might feel frothy because it’s been a one-way TACO trade since Trump backed down on Liberation Day tariffs but most sentiment surveys weren’t overly frothy. That could be changing. The AAII survey — which is a solid one — rose in the latest week to 45% bullish from 35.1%. That’s a

India’s markets regulator bars US trading firm Jane Street from accessing the country’s securities market more to come Getting the details on this. It’ll be interesting hearing the reasoning. Algo-driven firms like this tend to not have too many fans … but they do provide liquidity and what have you to markets (yeah, most of

Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil forecast to US$72/bbl for 2025 projects $70 for 2026 forecast US oil demand to grow 130 kb/d this year, 100 kb/d ahead of their previous estimates say geopolitical tensions have eased as the U.S​.-​mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold add that the risk premium has

House leaders have designated the week of July 14 as “Crypto Week”, when three major cryptocurrency-related bills will be brought to a vote: the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate’s GENIUS Act. Republican lawmakers say the legislation will create a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, safeguard financial privacy, and bolster

USD/JPY is dribbling a little lower after the stunning beat for this data, both y/y and m/m: Japan data – May household spending +4.7% y/y (expected +1.2%, prior -0.1%) The yen move is tiny, of course, in comparison with the non farm payroll USD/JPY jump: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking in Berlin, addressed EU concerns over rare earth export controls: “Rare earths have not been, are not, and will not be a problem between China and Europe, or between China and Germany.” “If legal applications are submitted, Europe’s and Germany’s normal needs can be met.” China imposed new export

The US is on holiday on July 4 for the Independence Day holiday. Stock markets – most notably the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be closed Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed. Most FX desks will be closed, skeleton staff at

Japan data – May household spending comes in at a huge beat, +4.7% y/y, the fastest pace since August 2022 expected +1.2%, prior -0.1% +4.6% m/m, fastest since March 2021 expected +0.4%, prior -1.8% These are big beats, both m/m and y/y and will reignite speculation of nearer-term Bank of Japan rate hikes. Markets had

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reuters latest poll of expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia: 31 of 37 economists expect the Bank to cut its cash rate by 25bp next week, on July 8 six said no change and expected to cut cash rate to 3.10% by end-2025 is the median forecast (v/s 3.35% in May poll) A 25bp

Trump says administration working with Department of Homeland Security to help farmers on immigration Trump says administration will also work with the hotel industry Trump says he is willing to let migrants stay in country who are vouched for by the farmers they work for Trump is speaking in Iowa, one of the states very

Australia S&P Global June final services PMI at 51.8, a big jump from May and ahead of the flash reading: preliminary was 51.3, prior was 50.6 in May Composite 51.6, ditto: preliminary was 51.2, prior was 50.5 in May In summary from the report: Australia’s services sector gained momentum in June, with stronger demand driving

The U.S. has given Enterprise Products Partners the green light to restart ethane exports to China, the company announced on Wednesday, reversing a licensing restriction introduced only weeks earlier as trade tensions shifted from tariffs to supply chain controls. In late May and early June, the U.S. imposed new curbs on ethane and various other

New ETF offers U.S. investors exposure to Solana A new investment vehicle giving traditional investors access to Solana—a major cryptocurrency—began trading Wednesday on the Cboe BZX Exchange: REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF is the first US ETF to directly invest in Solana, the world’s sixth-largest crypto by market cap. The launch marks a step forward

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump’s latest yelling is: Powell should resign immediately Something to take note of is that Trump and some other members of the administration would have have gotten a preview of the US non farm payroll report around 4pm US Eastern time on Wednesday. This latest from Trump may be indicative of a poor report. Perhaps.

Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said the company will consider exporting its electric vehicles starting in 2027, reaffirming a timeline previously suggested. Lei noted that strong demand at home—particularly for its SU7 sedan and newly launched YU7 SUV—requires Xiaomi to prioritise the Chinese market in the near term. The SU7 has outperformed Tesla’s Model 3 in

A plane went down Wednesday afternoon in Monroe Township in Gloucester County near the Cross Keys Airport, officials said. No further details as yet Here we go, more: Numerous people injured says ABC media skydiving plane with 15 people onboard goes off runway after landing plane was dropping rapidly at a rate of 3,008 feet

As Trump and his advisers consider candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one key uncertainty looms: Powell may not leave the central bank next year. While Powell’s term as chair ends in May, he has yet to indicate whether he will fully step down or remain on the Fed’s board, where his term

Westpac have popped up a piece summarising three key themes that have emerged from the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra that concluded on Wedneday: Asia and the West have different responses to the trade shock The decline of US dollar dominance will be slow Reliance on the neutral rate offers diminishing returns On

Japan Jibun bank PMIs for June 2025, final. Services 51.7, a third consecutive month of growth preliminary 51.5, prior 51.0 More: business confidence improving to a four-month high new order growth accelerated slightly from May increase in new export business, generally attributed to tourist activities, decelerated to the slowest since December employment grew at the

Bessent was speaking in an interview with Fox: says ‘a little bewildering’ that tariffs wouldn’t push Fed towards a cut Asked if he thinks Powell will lower rates by fall, Bessent: I think they could do it sooner than then but certainly by September It’s a bit tough to figure out what Bessent is doing

Greg had the summary of the main points made by the heads of the Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan and Bank of Korea If you need an update of where these folks see their economies and policy this is a great summary: Comments from Central Bank Heads from the

OPEC+ meets on July 6, the cartel is expected to hike August output by 411,000 bpd. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says the decision will be made on the day: “We’ll review it during the meeting, as is traditional“ The group has been steadily adding back oil output since April: monthly increases of 411,000

Trump: Israel agrees to 60-day Gaza ceasefire proposal – via a post on his social media app. says Qataris, Egyptians will deliver final deal “Hope Hamas takes this deal” Gaza ceasefire deal “will not get better, only worse” Productive meetings with Israeli representatives confirmed Anything that relieves the suffering of the people in Gaza would

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week that policymakers are likely to stay on hold for now, waiting for clearer signs on how Trump’s tariffs are affecting inflation. However, if the labour market starts to weaken, the Fed may consider lowering interest rates. Bank of America say: “Occam’s razor suggests that inflation is already

Median UK pay awards rose to 3.4% in the three months to May, up from 3.2%, driven partly by April’s minimum wage hike. Info via Reuters, citing a survey by Incomes Data Research: Private-sector pay deals hit 3.5%, with 19% of employers offering raises above 6%, up from 12% in April. Public-sector pay averaged 3.6%,

Iran prepped to mine Strait of Hormuz last month after Israeli strikes, but the mines were never deployed, according to U.S. officials. Reuters carry the story. In brief: A blockade would have disrupted global trade, with the strait carrying around 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments. U.S. hasn’t ruled out the possibility that

Justin had the update on Trump looking at susbidies to Tesla: Trump says maybe DOGE should take a “good, hard look” at Elon and the subsidies his companies are receiving Note also that the feud is getting very personal. Trump said he would look at having Elon Musk deported to his native South Africa: “We’ll

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The US dollar is under pressure as foreign investors show diminishing demand for dollar-denominated assets, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Using the bank’s ETF flow data: foreigners “are no longer buying enough dollar assets to finance America’s huge current account deficit.” DB highlights recent data showing the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) narrowed slightly

This is not just a yean story, the dollar has dipped almost across the baord also. Yen supported by the Bank of Japan Tankan : BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10) US dollar, meanwhile, ore of the same for it, it lost ground at its fastest first help pace in

BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Bank of Japan Tankan Survey – June 2025 Highlights Business Conditions (Actual vs Reuters Poll): Large Manufacturers (June): +13 (forecast: +10). +13 is the highest since December last year. Large Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +12 (forecast: +9) Large Non-Manufacturers (June): +34 (forecast: +34) +34 is the lowest since December last year Large

The Reuters Tankan Index provides a monthly snapshot assessing Japanese business sentiment ahead of the Bank of Japan’s quarterly report. For Q2 2025, the data shows: April 2025: Japanese manufacturers’ sentiment rebounded to +9 in April from -1 in March, marking the highest level since August 2024. This improvement was attributed to a temporary boost

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

UK BRC Shop Price Index for June 2025 UK shop price inflation rose in June for the first time in nearly a year driven by a sharp 3.7% annual jump in food prices, the fastest pace since March 2024 British Retail Consortium attributed the rise to higher wholesale costs and increased labour expenses, especially for

Tesla has raised the price on Model 3 long range edition to 285,000 yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan final manufacturing PMI for June 2025 50.1 flash 50.4, prior 49.4 Japan’s manufacturing sector grew in June for the first time in 13 months: New orders fell for the 25th straight month, and export orders remained in a prolonged slump, with companies citing U.S. tariff uncertainty, especially in semiconductors and autos, as a key

Australian final June 2025 manufacturing PMI 50.6, down from the flash reading and down from May. Prelim is here: Australia preliminary June 2025 manufacturing PMI 51.0 (prior 51.0) Commentary from the report: “Australia’s Manufacturing PMI data showed that growth of the goods-producing sector moderated for a third consecutive month in June. While flash data initially

Going into the QSBO (data here) report BNZ were expected a cut at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on July 9, but it was not a strongly held biew: It is looking increasingly likely the RBNZ will stand pat when it delivers its July 9 Monetary Policy Review. Our formal view is for

BOJ official comments in the wake of the resilient Q2 Tankan (BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10)) Some automakers mentioned impact of U.S. trade policy, though others cited improvement in profits due to pass-through of costs No clear voices from firms citing impact of U.S. trade policy on capex plans

Bloomberg is gated, but in breif: NSW Treasury Corporation’s (TCorp) chief economist Brian Redican has called on the Reserve Bank of Australia to scrap its focus on hitting the 2.5% midpoint of its inflation target range the benchmark imposes unrealistic expectations on monetary policy creates unnecessary confusion in financial markets: inflation outcomes are more likely

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has hinted at the firm’s 11th straight week of Bitcoin purchases, continuing a buying streak that began on April 14. “In 21 years, you’ll wish you’d bought more,” Saylor posted on X to his 4.4 million followers Strategy’s latest purchase was on June 23, when it added 245 BTC for

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump has accused Japan of engaging in unfair trade practices in the automobile sector, calling for Tokyo to boost imports of U.S. energy and goods to help narrow the trade deficit. In a Fox News interview aired Sunday, Trump criticised the imbalance, noting that while the U.S. imports millions of Japanese vehicles, Japan takes few

Japan Industrial Production for May 2025, preliminary, +0.5% m/m for a huge miss expected +3.4%, prior -1.1% and -1.8% y/y prior +0.5% Industrial Production forecast 1 month ahead +0.3% m/m prior -3.4% 2 months ahead seen at -0.7% Data via Ministry of Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry US tariffs threat but hasn’t even hit

The Bank of Japan is placing increasing emphasis on “underlying inflation” to justify its cautious approach to further rate hikes, even as headline inflation sits well above target — a move that’s drawing criticism for clouding its policy message. core and headline consumer inflation in Japan remain above 2% BOJ points to a range of

Business confidence in the UK has climbed to its highest level in nine years: Lloyds Bank’s Business Barometer 51% in June, strongest since November 2015 prior 50 economic optimism up to a 10-month high hiring intentions surged, 60% of businesses now expect to increase staffing levels over the next year Lloyds economist: the figures indicate

US equity index futures are higher in Sunday evening, US time, Globex trade. Adding to record highs. EUR/USD is making a fresh high for the session here after opening higher and the filling the gap it left. Gold dipped early but is bouncing. The USD is generally softer across the board. Trump spoke on Sunday:

The theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking is Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses 30 June-2 July 2025 In Sintra, Portugal European Central Bank President Lagarde kicks off the speeches at 1730 GMT today, Monday, June 30, 2025. On Tuesday we’ll hear from a few more of the

New Zealand ANZ Business Survey for June 2025. Business Confidence prior 36.6 Activity Outlook prior 34.8 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mon: Japanese Industrial Output (May), Chinese Official PMIs (Jun), German Retail Sales (May), German/Italian Prelim CPI (Jun) Tue: Japanese Tankan (Q2), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Jun), German Unemployment (Jun), EZ HICP Flash (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US Challenger Layoffs (Jun),

Canada is set to move forward with a digital services tax, with the first payments due on Monday on revenues that stretch all the way back to 2022. That’s a material number and it comes after all the tech giants flanked Trump at his inauguration. I wonder if this isn’t all sorted out on the

These are complex talks Will proceed in the best interests of the country Tough to get a read on what he’s saying here but he’s not trying to inflame talks further. USD/CAD has recouped a big part of the move. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

So much for that. CAD down sharply. Trump’s message: We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our

It’s a lively day in US equity markets as strong buyers waded in early. It looked like the market would cruise to a record high close until Trump tweeted that he was ending trade talks with Canada. That led to a wave of tariff worries that erased more than 40 points in the S&P 500

Trump — evidently — is so offended that Iran’s supreme leader didn’t say ‘thank you’ to Trump and instead claimed he won the war that he’s “immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more”. Here is Trump’s post: Why would the so-called “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran,

Bessent indicates that the US dollar drop this year is normal variance. The US still has a strong dollar policy Currencies move up and down More fiscal spending in Europe tells you that the euro should appreciate I don’t think anyone is necessarily talking about a shadow Fed One spot on the Fed will open

The S&P 500 is up 45 points to a fresh record at 6185. It’s bee a great week for stock markets following the Iran-Israel war and the S&P 500 is up 3.6% WTD. The market isn’t rattled by Trump trade comments as it’s concluded that tariffs won’t be overly inflationary and that other countries aren’t

Trump is back to being tariff man. After a week of working on peace in the Middle East, Trump is pivoting again and away we go. The S&P 500 was on its way to a record close and a close above the prior record high of 6147 but it’s now given up around 40 poitns

Baker Hughes data: Oil rigs -6 to 432 Nat gas rigs -2 to 109 WTI crude oil is trading down 11 cents to $67.65. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump cancels trade talks with Canada Carney says he has not spoken with Trump today US May PCE core +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected Canada GDP for April -0.1% vs +0.0% expected US June final UMich consumer sentiment 60.7 vs 60.5 expected Trump: I’ve ended sanctions relief for Iran because the Ayatollah didn’t say thank-you

Discover what it takes to think in probabilities so that you can determine your edge in the markets The post How To Think in Probabilities appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Japanese Retail Sales for May 2025 + 2.2% y/y expected + 2.7%, prior +3.5% for the m/m, comes in at -0.2% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.7% in April more to come Earlier: Tokyo June 2025 headline CPI +3.1% y/y (3.3% expected) Japan May unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.5%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will be speaking Friday at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Annual General Meeting 1200 US Eastern time/1600 GMT Note, the BIS’ Annual Economic Report 2025 will be released on 29 June: will look at trade tensions, global economic challenges, the rise of non-banks and the future monetary system

Goldman Sachs says its scenario analysis suggests Brent at $90/bbl by year-end in case of an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz Says option markets see a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in 3 months and a 28% probability to exceed $70 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

French President Macron: in favour of a speedy and equitable EU-US trade agreement if the US 10% tariff stays, Europe will respond by imposing an equivalent levy on US firms This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The inflation data is here: Tokyo June 2025 headline CPI +3.1% y/y (3.3% expected) Jobs data: Jobless Rate 2.5%, unchanged from April expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.24 expected 1.26, prior 1.26 Its inflation data that is a focus in Japan, the unemployment rate is very low. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Tokyo CPI % y/y expected 3.4%, prior +3.4% CPI excluding fresh food 3.1% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.6% CPY excluding fresh food & energy +3.1% y/y, the highest since January 2024 expected 3.3%, prior 3.3% While core consumer inflation in Tokyo slowed in June, its still way above the Bank of Japan 2% target. Most

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari is participating in a town hall and Q&A at Montana Chamber of Commerce: inflation is above 2%, have to get it back to 2% we want to keep strong labour market we need to go slow until we know what’s happening with tariff-related inflation some of the

Positng this ICYMI: J.P. Morgan has raised its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 1,150 to 1,250, citing attractive valuations, a weaker U.S. dollar, and reduced uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. The firm maintains an ‘overweight’ stance on emerging markets. It noted that while trade tensions have dominated sentiment so far in

South Korea’s financial regulator: South Korea government holds emergency meeting on household debt South Korea govt strengthens measures to control household debt The back story on this is that South Korea has one of the highest household debt-to-income ratios among OECD countries. Households owe significantly more than their annual disposable income. mortgage loans are a

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term runs for another 11 months. The Journal (gated) says Trump is considering naming his successor soon. In brief: has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October, according to people familiar with the matter One of these people said the president’s ire toward

EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD all higher against the US dollar. The news that triggered the renewed bout of dollar selling is this: Wall Street Journal: Trump considers naming next Fed chair early – bid to undermine Powell The Journal’s take, which seems reasonable, is that Trump’s intention to name Powell’s replacement early

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish stance on Chinese equities, forecasting a more than 10% rally in the CSI 300 Index to 4,600 by year-end. Despite ongoing investor caution and a tepid first half, the bank expects a stronger performance in the second half of 2025, supported by policy easing, improving corporate earnings, and stabilising

Info here: Wall Street Journal: Trump considers naming next Fed chair early – bid to undermine Powell Wall Street Journal reports that Trump may accelerate naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Powell either this summer, September or October this might allow the chair-in-waiting to influence investor expectations ahead of the end of Powell’s term

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority acts as Hong Kong’s central bank. The HKMA is buying HKD to support the local currency. Its hit the upper extreme of its trading band (ie strong USD/weak HKD) – more on this below. I’ve posted on this before, ICYMI: Since 1983, the HKD has been pegged to the U.S.

Deutsche Bank has revised its rate call for the Reserve Bank of Australia, now forecasting a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming 8 July meeting. The bank had previously expected the first move in August but now sees cuts in both July and August, followed by a third 25bp reduction in November. The shift

Snippet from JPM on the US dollar: expects the index, DXY, to fall by 5.7% in the next 12 months citing US economic growth looking set to moderate, data showing signs of softening projects US growth to slow by more than other developed-market economies also to grow more slowly than most emerging-market economies sees growth-supportive

Nomura expects U.S. Treasuries to benefit from growing concerns over a potential economic slowdown, with yields likely to decline further if the labour market begins to soften meaningfully. In a note to clients, the bank said a resilient labour market would likely lead to only modest yield declines, but any signs of weakness could accelerate

0430 US Eastern time / 0830 GMT Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks at City UK conference on UK competitiveness 0645 US Eastern time/ 1045 GMT Andrea Rosen, Bank of England’s Head of Market Intelligence and Analysis at the CCBS “Transforming monetary policy” conference “From trading floors to policy calls: the value and evolution of our

The CNN report that pre-empted the other reports on “Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say” (I did a summary of this and other reports here earlier ICYMI: Classified report: Iran’s nuclear capabilities largely intact despite airstrikes) includes this instructive paragraph towards the end: The Israeli

Japan Services Producer Price Index (May 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan: more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Jeff Schmid is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Both jobs and inflation are near the Fed’s goals Central bank has time to study tariff effects on inflation before any rate decision Resilience of the economy means the Fed has time to wait and see what happens before

The summary of the Bank of Japan’s June policy meeting (headlines here from earlier) shows some members urged keeping rates steady due to uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy. Others argued that inflation was stronger than expected, with one suggesting the BOJ may need to raise rates “decisively” despite economic risks.

BOJ summary of opinions at June meeting: One member said: While much of the hard data for April and May has been relatively solid, it is likely that the effects of tariff policies are yet to materialize One member said while the impact of U.S. tariff policy will certainly exert downward pressure on firms’ sentiment,

Info comes via a Reuters report citing surveys by data firm Brightmine and recruitment platform Indeed Private sector pay deals mostly held at 3% in the three months to May, below 3.4% inflation. Nearly 15% of firms offered lower raises of 2.5%, reflecting employer caution. Job vacancies fell 5% from late March to mid-June and

Recapping Japan’s corporate service inflation data earlier, that rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, just below April’s revised 3.4%, according to BOJ data. The Bank of Japan is closely watching service-sector prices for signs that wage-driven inflation may become sustained. The services producer price index reflects what businesses charge each other for services and is a

Japan Services Producer Price Index (May 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan:. AKA Corporate Services Price Index +3.3% y/y (expected +3.1%, prior +3.1%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs’ Richard Chambers says the U.S. dollar may face further pressure as foreign investors increase currency hedging on U.S. assets. Rising hedge ratios and more FX-hedged Treasury purchases are expected amid market volatility. Chambers also sees European investors potentially reducing U.S. bond purchases in favour of local assets as fiscal spending rises, which could

Israel agreed to ceasefire so long as Iran does not launch further attacks; Iran has signalled to the US no further attacks will take place – White House official. Info via Reuters. Also: Trump called the ceasefire between Iran and Israel that he announced marked “a wonderful day for the world, in my opinion.” -NBC

This ahead of the ceasefire due at 0400 GMT (midnight US Eastern time), some media reports: Iran deflecting most intense strikes since June 13 Iran’s Nour News (linked to the Supreme National Security Council): “The scale of the explosions that occurred tonight in Tehran and Karaj is the largest in 12 days.” Heavy bombardments in

Amazon will invest £40 billion ($54 billion) in the UK over the next three years, marking a significant expansion in its third-largest market after the US and Germany. The investment, welcomed by the UK government as a boost to economic confidence, is set to create thousands of jobs. Plans include two major new fulfillment centres

The announcement from Trump of a ceasefire was very soon followed by officials in Iran denying it, and soon after by other officials confirming it. The denials are back: Iranian Fars News reports that an informed source has denied Trump’s ceasefire claim. Speaking to Fars News, the source stated that the ceasefire proposal announced by

Japanese media, Yomiuri, reporting on the dates – conveyed via Reuters Akazawa is arranging his seventh visit to the United States for as early as June 26 the first ministerial-level tariff negotiation since the Japan-U.S. summit held in Canada on June 16 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oil has lost further ground with the news of the ceasefire: Trump announces Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” CNN reports that Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal News of Iranian confirmation of ceasefire agreement filtering in now – all good More ceasefire confirmation – Senior Iranian official confirms

Social media sources: Unconfirmed reports of an assassination attempt on a senior Iranian official Reports indicate a nuclear scientist has been assassinated in central Tehran Unconfirmed reports of multiple explosions at/near Camp Taji north of Baghdad in Iraq Wave of new Israeli airstrikes targeting Tehran’s 6th and 7th districts. This article was written by Eamonn

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Via Reuters: President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on Monday in a call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and with Trump’s team in contact with Iranian officials, a senior White House official said. The official, providing details of the ceasefire on condition of anonymity, said Israel agreed to the

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is an interesting read from Axios on how Trump suckered a lot of people. I posted on Friday not to get sucked in: “the phrasing doesn’t rule out an immediate move“ But Axios canvasses all those he did fool. Good read this. “It was a headfake”: Inside Trump’s secret orders to strike Iran The

Australia S&P Global June flash services PMI at 51.3 (vs 50.6 in May) Australia S&P Global June flash manufacturing PMI at 51.0 (vs 51.0 in May) Composite 51.2 (prior 50.5) Solid jump for the Services and Composite, steady for Manufacturing. A good results. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun bank PMI manufacturing June 2025 preliminary 50.4 (prior 49.4) services: 51.5 (prior 51.0) composite: 51.4 (prior 50.2) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters carry a few comments from analysts in response to the weekend developments re Trump’s strike on Iran. JP Morgan take a bit of a big pic view: cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over

I posted last week on 4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bbl Many of these warned of what could play out in the case of escalation. Over the weekend we did incrementally escalate: BREAKING: U.S. Successfully Struck Iran Nuclear Sites What’s Next after Iran Strikes? Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 16

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Goldman Sachs: Says while they still assume no significant disruptions to oil & natural gas supply, downside risks to energy supply & upside risk to its energy price forecasts have risen Says the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance that Iran will disrupt the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 Says if only Iran

This is worth checking out, reasoning why Iran won’t be able to close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not to say they won’t try, but it’ll be flash in the pan. Here is the link to the thread, if you’d like to read it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Korea says it’ll take market stabilising measures if volatility heightens excessively The fin min, meanwhile, says will be closely monitoring energy supply conditions fin min again – to take necessary measures if volatility is excessive in financial markets This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

RBC analysts warn against complacency in assessing risks to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that Iran retains significant retaliatory capabilities. “Iran has the ability to meaningfully retaliate by hitting individual tankers and ports,” they said, pushing back on the notion that disruptions hinge solely on a dramatic escalation. The situation, they argue,

MON: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jun). TUE: NBH Announcement, German Ifo (Jun), Canadian CPI (May), US Richmond Fed (Jun). WED: BoJ Summary of Opinions, CNB Announcement, PBoC MLF, Australian CPI (May). THU: Banxico Announcement, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jul), US Durable Goods (May), US GDP Final (Q1), US PCE Final (Q1). FRI: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jun),

Chart of the Day – Light Crude Oil Futures Analysis Crude Oil Price Chart, Daily timeframe | April–June 2025 Since mid-April 2024, light crude oil futures have respected a clear red resistance line—with key touchpoints in April 2024, January 2025, and most recently in mid-June 2025. The most recent test briefly pierced above resistance, a

Israeli strikes continue: Israel’s Air Force conducted another wave of attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear site at Isfahan, radar installations, and air defense batteries. Senior Iranian commanders killed: Israel confirmed the targeted killing of multiple Iranian commanders, including Bahnam Shahriari, head of weapon transfers to Hezbollah, and Amin Pour-Joudaki, commander of Iran’s drone force. Saeed Izadi,

U.S. B-2 Bombers Observed in Transit, Likely Toward Guam – No Official Deployment Announced On June 21, 2025, six U.S. Air Force B-2 stealth bombers were observed departing Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, accompanied by aerial refueling tankers. Based on flight-tracking data and analysis by defense aviation watchers, the aircraft are likely heading to

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that the United States has completed what he called a “very successful attack” on three nuclear sites in Iran — Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. According to Trump’s post, a full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary target, Fordow, and all aircraft involved have exited Iranian

We’ve been speaking to Iran Russia and Ukraine are making progress Looks like we will make trade deals with India and Pakistan Iran doesn’t want to speak with Europe Thinks Iran was weeks or months away from having a nuclear weapon Says he might support ceasefire Israel is doing well, Iran is doing less well

When I survey markets and themes right now it’s painfully difficult to find any clarity. Trump is extremely difficult to predict and right now we’re waiting on two big decisions: 1) Whether to join the war with Iran 2) How to conduct the trade war Both could materially worsen or get better at any point.

The broader US indices are closing lower on the day. The Dow 30 did close marginally higher. Dow industrial average rose 35.16 points or 0.08% at 42206.82. S&P index fell -13.033 points or -0.22% at 5967.84 NASDAQ index fell -98.86 points or -0.51% at 19447.41 For the trading week indices were little changed: Dow industrial

There seem to be two tracks around Iran. The US military is preparing to attack more intensely Diplomats are laying the groundwork for a deal Ultimately Trump will be the one to decide which way it will go but I think the hesitation is because the US doesn’t know how it might get out of

The USDCHF spent the week grinding higher, carving out a Monday-to-Thursday range of 0.8055 → 0.8213. Buyers ran into determined sellers just a few pips beneath the 38.2 % retracement of the April–May decline, halting momentum and forcing a modest pullback to the 0.8150 to 0.8160 area. A second technical fulcrum sits just below current

So far the economy is in a good place and so is policy Concerns about tariff impact on inflation aren’t as large as they were when they were first announced Many possibilities on how much of tariffs pass through to customers Fundamentals of economy are moving to where an interest rate cut may be necessary

The USDJPY just notched fresh intraday—and multi-week—highs, pushing firmly into the yellow swing zone that capped rallies in early May (145.92-146.25). Price is now only a handful of pips from the 61.8 % retracement of the May slide at 146.148, a level that often acts as a “last line” for corrective moves. Importantly, every pullback

Japan has cancelled a trade meeting with the US, according to the FT. The move came after the US asked Japan to boost defense spending to 3.5% of GDP. This report might be responsible for some of the selling in stocks in the past few minutes. At some point the market will shift its focus

The US dollar has been steadily bid this week on a safe-haven bid due to Middle East war fears but it’s now giving back those gains. The euro is now nearly flat on the week. It’s also traced out something of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart that targets a retest of the recent

Trump: It’s hard to make a request for Israel to stop airstrikes, we’ve talked to Iran Philadelphia Fed Business index for June -4.0 vs -1.0 expected Japan cancels meeting with US after call for more defense spending Fed’s Waller: I’m all in favor of saying ‘maybe we should think about cutting’ in July Feds Barkin

Bank of Japan April 30 – May 1 meeting minutes, full text Headlines via Reuters: Many members said must carefully scrutinise each nation’s trade policy and its development given heightening downside risks to economy, prices A few members said BOJ must maintain current very low real interest rates to underpin economy One member said BOJ

The Bank of England on Thursday, kept rates on hold in a 6-3 split, with three members voting for a 25 basis point cut, a more dovish outcome than markets had expected (a 7-2 vote). BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected BOE’s Lombardelli: Services inflation is proving quite sticky TD Securities strategists

The minutes of the Bank of Japan May meeting are due at 2350 GMT (1950 US Eastern time). We had a sneak preview from the bank’s Summary: Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on April 30 and May 1, 2025 Later, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at

US thinks Iran likely to make a nuclear bomb if Fordow is attacked, Khamenei assasinated. New York Times with the report. Sounds weird. Iran is making an all out effort to make a nuclear bomb without either of those things happening anyway. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The kiwi $ trades with thin liquidity at the best of times. Today will be even thinner. New Zealand markets are closed for a Friday holiday – long weekend in NZ! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK GfK Consumer Confidence in June 2025 comes in at -18 expected -20, prior -20 – 18 is highest level of 2025 GFK analysis: “With petrol prices set to rise in the coming weeks following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and with ongoing uncertainty as to the full impact of tariffs,

Japan inflation readings for May 2025: Headline rate is 3.5% y/y expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% CPI excluding Fresh Food 3.7% y/y, the fastest rise in 2+ years (again) … highest since January 2023 … said to be driven by oil and services costs, but if you take out energy (see below) its still rising fast

Swiss National Bank news from Thursday ICYMI: SNB brings back zero rates in June monetary policy decision, as expected SNB chairman Schlegel: We are now on the verge of negative interest rate territory SNB chairman Schlegel: We don’t take decision on negative interest rates lightly The cut comes as Swiss inflation turned int deflation in

MSCI said Friday that South Korea’s short-selling accessibility has improved, with no major issues remaining — a positive sign ahead of next week’s market classification review. South Korea is currently classified as an emerging market by MSCI, despite meeting many developed-market criteria. Investors are hoping the country will be added to MSCI’s watch list for

The Wall Street Journal reported earlir: WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plans Another US media outlet, ABC, is reporting the same information: The report quotes Trump”: He’s received a range of options, including using U.S. military assets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump didn’t rule out the

New Zealand q1 2025 GDP +0.8% q/q, a beat expected +0.7%, prior +0.5% -0.7% y/y, also a beat but obviously still a y/y contraction expected –0.8%, prior revised from –1.1% down to -1.3% NZD/USD with a bit of a wiggle on the release but little net change so far: This article was written by Eamonn

Israeli media reports the latest Iranian attack was intercepted by US air defense systems Israel’s Channel 12 reporting, conveyed via Al Jazeera.Earlier: Earlier: Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend NYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump’s offer to meet WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA, the trade group that represents the bond market.) is recommending the US Bond market closed that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps the odd skeleton crew. —

ABC (US media) reports: Trump is getting comfortable with the idea of taking out Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, a source familiar with the intelligence told ABC News. It would not be just one strike on the facility, it would be several, the source said. There is now a movement to get ready for this, the

Via Axios (US politics website): Trump wants to make sure such an attack on Iran is really needed Wants to be sure it wouldn’t drag the US into a prolonged war in the Middle East Wants to be sure that the attack would achieve the objective of destroying Iran’s nuclear program More: Consideration is begin

While the meeting was underway there were a flurry of news items crossing: Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend NYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump’s offer to meet WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plans We await any

A new Reuters corporate survey shows that 71% of Japanese companies say the impact of U.S. tariffs is within expectations, with 84% keeping their investment plans unchanged despite a looming 24% tariff threat on some goods and an existing 25% tariff on autos. Many firms are taking a long-term view, noting the Trump administration’s limited

Goldman Sachs says a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel has emerged in Brent crude prices, following the recent climb to $76–77/bbl. In a note released Wednesday, the bank said the premium reflects heightened Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions. Goldman maintains its base case forecast for Brent to decline to around

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

New Zealand Q1 current account balance -2.324bn ( expected -2.2bn, prior -7.037bn) Current Account/GDP -5.7% expected -5.8%, prior -6.2% Current Account Annual -24.662bn expected -24.8bn, prior -26.401bn Traders are eyeing global developments to move the Kiwi $ more than local data for now. NZD/USD isa few tics lower after the data. — More on the

Axios, a US politics site, reports that Netanyahu and Trump held a phone call. – In other related news Iran has launched its most recent barrage of missiles against Israel. Said to be 20 missiles launched. – Earlier: Israeli media says the US could join the war against Iran tonight CNN reporting the same. As

Japanese manufacturers turned more cautious in June, with sentiment dipping amid concerns over U.S. tariffs and sluggish Chinese demand, the latest Reuters Tankan survey shows. The manufacturers’ index fell to +6 in June from +8 in May, with expectations it will drop further to +2 in the next three months. Sentiment among non-manufacturers held steady

The CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) Crude Oil Volatility Index is referred to as OVX. It shows implied volatility of options on United States Oil Fund (USO). tracks 30-day expected volatility in crude oil prices, derived from the pricing of USO options — similar to how the VIX measures expected equity volatility from S&P 500

Japanese trade data, also machine orders data. Trade Balance for May 2025 -637.6bn yen expected -896.5bn, prior –115.6bn Trade Balance Adjusted -305.5bn yen expected –359.0bn, prior -408.9bn Exports -1.7% y/y, the first negative in eight months expected –3.7%, prior +2.0% Imports -7.7% y/y expected –5.9%, prior –2.2% Exports to Asia +0.4% year/year to China -8.8%

The Taco stories pretty much write themselves now. Wall Street Journal: Trump will sign an executive order sparing TikTok from enforcement of a law banning or forcing the sale of the app. extension will last 90 days the third extension since Trump took office In other news, Trump’s homeland security secretary Kristi Noem was taken

Rick Rieder is BlackRock CIO of Global Fixed Income. Snippet from a piece in Market Watch on his expectations for the Fed. Trump tariffs so far haven’t flowed into U.S. inflation data in a big way Federal Reserve will maintain its wait-and-see approach on interest rates Over the next two months, the Fed may get

As background to this, a couple of months ago news hit that US regulators are planning to ease a capital rule, specifically the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), that limits how much banks can hold in Treasury securities. In brief: This move aims to boost liquidity in the $29 trillion Treasury market and reduce borrowing costs

New Zealand consumer sentiment ticked up in the June quarter, though it remains deeply pessimistic by historical standards, according to the latest Westpac-McDermott Miller survey. The consumer confidence index rose to 91.2, up from 89.2 in the March quarter. While the small improvement reverses some of the sharp Q1 drop, the index remains well below

S&P 500 eminis, ES, and Nasdaq, NQ have recouped their small losses after Globex reopened for evening trade and are up just a touch. Moves are small only. Same across major FX with a generally lower USD. Small moves higher for : AUD, EUR, NZD, GBP Oil, of course, is a focus. Its backed off

France’s Macron: Trump told G7 leaders there were discussions to obtain a ceasefire between Israel and Iran European partners are ready to take part in serious Iran nuclear negotiations if a ceasefire is reached Americans have made offer to meet with Iranians, now will see what happens Given the objective to get a ceasefire in

Fox reporting that Trump requests NSC be prepared in Situation Room. NSC is the US National Security Council This follows the news that Trump left the G7 abruptly: Trump is leaving the G7 summit EARLY and will return to DC tonight. Trump left early This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

CNN reporter on twitter – Trump is leaving the G7 summit EARLY and will return to DC tonight: “President Trump will return to Washington tonight so he can attend to many important matters,” – White House Press Sec – Well, this could well be significant news given geopolitical strife engulfing us. The G7 meeting is

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports -3.5% y/y in May expected +8.0%, prior +12.4% in April Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, South Korea and Hong Kong increased y/y in May exports to the United States, Thailand and Malaysia decreased Singapore downgraded its GDP forecast for 2025 to 0% to 2% from 1% to 3% in April. This article

Trump tweeted (on his own social media app) telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran”. The White House have deconstructed the tweet: A White House official told CNN on Monday that Trump’s social media post telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran” reflected the urgency of the need for Iran to come to the table as its

The US dollar is rising pretty much across the baord. Its not a rapid move, but a slow boil with an accumulation of news pointing it higher: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran (the White House played this down: Trump’s ‘evacuate Tehran’ tweet is all about getting Iran to negotiate says White House) Trump

Chinese embassy in Israel: Advises Chinese citizens to leave Israel through land border crossings as soon as possible Recommends citizens to leave via land crossing towards Jordan Warns citizens that the security situation has become more severe This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A U.S. official says that that the military’s current stance is strictly defensive no intention of initiating offensive operations against Iran — Its been a very busy session so far for headline ping-pong: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran (the White House played this down: Trump’s ‘evacuate Tehran’ tweet is all about getting Iran

Trump was asked why he is heading back to DC early: “I have to be back…very important…you probably see what I see, I have to be back as soon as I can…I wish I could stay for tomorrow, but they understand, this is big stuff” Trump’s departure, so far: Trump says everyone should immediately evacuate

South Korean Finance Ministry: Closely monitoring financial markets South Korea will provide financial and shipping support to exporters Trade war concerns weighing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) For May 2025, 44.0, lowest level of activity since June 2024 prior 48.1 long-run average 53.0 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel (bolding is mine): “the fall in the PSI follows the sharp decline in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) from 53.3 to 47.5. Together, they are

UK Rightmove House Prices for June 2025: -0.3% m/m, compared with a typical 0.4% rise for the usual month of June prior +0.6% +0.8% y/y, smallest annual rise since August 2024 prior +1.2% Rightmove commentary: “It appears that we’re now seeing the decade-high level of homes for sale, and the recent stamp duty increases in

The yen is weakening further. In the first hour of Israeli action again Iran on Friday the yen jumped higher but since then its been almost one-way traffic lower. USD/JPY did track sideways ofr much of the US session Friday but its jumped out of that range now. Higher oil prices are not a bullish

New bank loans in China rose less than expected in May, totaling 620 billion yuan missing forecasts of 850 billion despite recent rate cuts and a temporary U.S.-China trade truce This follows a nine-month low in April Year-on-year loan growth slowed to a record low of 7.1%, down from 7.2% in April. Household loans (mostly

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump talking to reporters as he left for the G7 summit in Canada: Says he hopes there will be a deal between Iran and Israel, but sometimes you have to fight it out Says he does not want to say if he has asked Israel to pause strikes on Iran Says US will continue to

Brent crude up around $3 +4% or so Eminis lower: ES -0.3% NQ -0.4% Brent update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump spoke in the Israel-Iran conflict on Sunday morning US time, ABC News: “We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved” Later in the day he added: Trump says US will continue to support Israel This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey of economists, the latest Consensus Forecasts. Some of the key items from the report, very briefly summarised:: annual average growth in GDP is forecast to contract by 1.1 percent in the year to March 2025 picking up to 1.9 percent in the following year lower interest rates

Japan’s foreign minister says: Japan PM in call with Trump reiterated Japan’s view on the US tariff measures Concluded to accelerate consultations between the ministers in charge to achieve mutual beneficial agreement. Exchange views on response to Israel’s recent attacks against Iran Trump wants to increase tariffs on autos and other imports from Japan. Trump’s

Israel this morning that Iran will pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas: Israel may hit energy facilities in response If Israel attacks Kharg Island, that would be a big thing: Kharg Island is critically important to Iran’s oil industry—both strategically and economically. Here’s why: Location & Infrastructure Situated in the

The price of July crude oil futures are settling up $4.94 or 7.26% at $72.98 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P, Nasdaq and Dow had their worst day since May 21 as geopolitical risk from Israel’s strike on Iran, and Iran’s counterstrike on Isreal gave traders a reason to sell. At the close, the major indices are all down by -1.13% or more. A look at the final numbers shows: Dow Industrial Average fell

Japan PM in call with Trump, reiterated Japan’s use on US tariffs The S&P, NASDAQ and Dow have worst day since May 21 Central bank meetings will dominate the economic calendar next week Israel warns that Iran will pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas Crude oil futures settle at $72.98

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Grossi is saying: Above ground plant where Iran was producing uranium enriched of up to 60% uranium has been destroyed No indication of attack on underground enrichment halls at Natanz, but an attack on the power supplies may have damages centrifuges There is radiological and chemical contamination inside facilites

Sky news is reporting Israeli army: Destroyed a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for converting enriched uranium, and laboratories in Isfahan This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Next week will be a pivotal one for global monetary policy, with key central banks scheduled to announce their latest decisions. The Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) will all hold policy meetings. While the BOJ, Fed, and BOE are widely expected to keep rates

Israel military: identified missile launched from Iran toward the territory of the state of Israel DefenSe systems are operating to intercept the threat. The public is instructed to enter a protective space and remain there until further notice. Hundreds of ballistic missiles launched toward Israel Explosions heard over Tel Aviv Iran’s response to Israel has

Major US stock indices are moving to session lows. The Dow industrial average is now down around 850 points or -1.98% at 42114.88. The S&P index is down -78 points or -1.25% at 5969.73. The NASDAQ index is down -283.1-1.44% at 19379.62 Both the NASDAQ and the S&P index are testing their 100-hour moving averages.

Axios reports that the U.S. told Israel it won’t participate in an Israeli strike on Iran. Earlier from the Wall Street Journal: WSJ: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials say This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

From the man himself: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything

Sector Overview The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant losses today, as key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) show declines of 2.61% and 2.70% respectively. This downturn signals concerns within this previously strong domain. Conversely, energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) have noted a positive shift, up by 1.92%, bolstering confidence in

European stocks ended the day broadly in negative territory, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and weaker global sentiment. All major regional indices posted losses, with Italian and Spanish markets underperforming. Closing levels: German DAX: 23,516.24, ▼255.22 (-1.07%) France’s CAC: 7,684.69, ▼80.43 (-1.04%) UK’s FTSE 100: 8,850.62, ▼34.31 (-0.39%) Spains Ibex: 13,910.59, ▼178.30 (-1.27%) Italy FTSE

Israel’s Channel 12 is reporting that Israeli air force began intercepting drones over the skies of Saudi Arabia. The IDF earlier announced that Iran has launched approximately 100 drones targeting Israel. It’s said that drone could take up to seven hours to cross Iraq, Syria and Jordan before eventually reaching Israel. This article was written

Baker Hughes rig count for the current week: Oil rig -3 at 439 Natural gas -1 at 113 Total recount -4 at 555 Versus a year ago the oil rig count is down from 485 or -46 rigs. That is a decline of 9.5%. Despite the decline,US oil production is at 13.43 million barrels per

OPEC Secretary-General says There are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics Does not see the need for unnecessary measures. Crude oil prices are sharply higher amid growing concerns over supply disruptions. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a strong breakout above the 200-day moving average, which sits at $68.47. This level

France’s Macron: Iran carries heavy responsibility in the destabilization of the region. We cannot live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons. France calls on restraint from parties. Regrets Iran didn’t take overtures from United States. We will be on our partners assigned in the region, including with our armed forces. Urges French citizens

After Israel’s attack, Iran launched approximately 100 drones targeting Israel. But here’s the kicker, the Israeli air force got the permission to intercept those drones over the skies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Moreover, we got the news that Jordan intercepted and shot down several Iranian drones entering its airspace on their way to

Israel launches major airstrikes on Iran, read from the bottom up for the chronology: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium Iran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy price Trump convenes the National Security Council meeting at 11am on Friday Further reports that Israeli air force has begun a second wave

Russia’s Putin spoke to both Iranian President Pezeshkian and Israeli PM Netanyahu: Told Netanyahu that issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program must be solved through diplomacy Told Iran’s Pezeshkian that Russia offers condolences for the dead, denounces Israeli’s actions as being in violation of UN charter This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei is addressing the Iranian people and says: Armed forces will leave Israel hopeless Israel will not remain unscathed Tehran will not go for half measures in its response. Iran is getting ready to launch 100 ballistic missiles toward Israel This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Axios with the report: Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire state of Israel Israeli Defense Minister says following Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future Israeli Defense

Iran will not participate in US/Iranian nuclear negotiations on Sunday. State TV is also announcing that the supreme leader Khamenei will address the Iranian people shortly. US Pres. Trump said the US still had a meeting planned with Iran on Sunday but was unsure whether it would take place. This article was written by Greg

The USDCAD is pushing to fresh lows as safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar fades and rising oil prices provide a tailwind for the Canadian dollar. From a technical standpoint, the pair has broken below the prior low for the year, reaching 1.3574—its lowest level since early October 2024. The drop took the price beneath

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to China and Europe later this month for high-level talks focused on trade, investment, and regional security. It will mark his first official visit to China as prime minister. Luxon is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, senior EU officials, and attend the NATO summit

Eurostoxx -1.4% Germany DAX -1.4% France CAC 40 -1.3% UK FTSE -0.6% Spain IBEX -1.7% Italy FTSE MIB -1.3% Regional bond yields are also sinking lower amid the safety flows with 10-year yields in Germany briefly touching 2.42% – its lowest since early March. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are also down 1.3% on the day

US knew of the attack ahead of time. The battle with Iran is not over. Expect that Iran will attack Israel The surprise is the secret of success Plans to talk with Iranian people directly Meanwhile the Israeli UN envoy says They do not know how long operation in Iran will take place Will continue

Iran International reports that “the sixth round of talks with the United States will not be held following the Israeli attacks” citing senior Iranian lawmaker Aladdin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NY Times is reporting that Israel has resumed the attacks on Iran. The strikes are centered on Fordo, one of the main underground nuclear sites. Israel wants to cease Iranians production of nuclear weapons. I would expect that endeavor to continue until the mission is complete. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Present trump is now telling Reuters that Iran has sustained a devastating hit. It is unclear if Iran still has a nuclear program He is not concerned about a regional war breaking out as a result of Israel’s strike on Iran. I tried to save Iran’s humiliation and death. Israelis ultimate objective is to ensure

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level and one for USD/JPY at the 144.00 level. As things stand, geopolitical tensions are running high and dominating market proceedings. So, the emotional swings on that and risk sentiment will

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There are reports of launches of both Iranian jet fighters and ballistic missiles The reports are only sporadic and unconfirmed. More: Iranian airspace is closed. all flights suspended at Imam Khomeini International Airport in capital Tehran Israeli leaders are said to have been transferred to “safe locations” Earlier: We got a 10 minute or so

TASS is reporting that Israel is prepared for the possibility of a full-fledged war with Iran according to Netanyahu’s office. Well, if that’s were to happen, then we could really see some ugly price action in the markets with oil prices surging to new highs. The playbook in the past attacks was to buy safe

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final CPI data for France and Spain. The final readings are generally ignored because they are old news (unless there are big revisions). We will also get the Eurozone Industrial Production data but it’s not a market moving release. In the

FBS, a leading global broker, has published a new expert analysis exploring how macroeconomic shifts, especially the normalization of the US Treasury yield curve, may create growth opportunities for the crypto market in 2025. After two years of an inverted yield curve — a widely watched recession signal — the spread between the 10-year and

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba says he has agreed to meet with Pres. Trump in Canada. His position has not changed and that he wants the removal of US tariffs. Pres. Trump yesterday said that auto tariffs may start soon This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg News with the report: Bank of Japan officials are seeing slightly stronger inflation than they had anticipated earlier this year, which could pave the way for future rate hike discussions—especially if global trade tensions ease, according to sources familiar with the matter. While the central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady

The GBPUSD started the day by making a new high for the year during the early Asian session, but risk-off flows following an Israeli strike on Iran triggered a sharp reversal. The flight to safety into the US dollar pushed the pair lower, breaking below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which were converged

. Despite stronger-than-expected University of Michigan sentiment data, stocks have slid to new session lows while yields have climbed to new session highs. Notably, U.S. bonds appear to be decoupling from the typical flight-to-safety flows often observed during periods of geopolitical tension. The NASDAQ index is under pressure and edging closer to its rising 100-hour

Well, this was expected. The 100 drones couldn’t have been the retaliation. In 2024 we got the same threats and they launched lots of missiles that didn’t cause much damage. Back then, they used the words “harsh”, “unimaginable” and “tooth-breaking”. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer sentiment last month 52.5 Current conditions last month 58.9 expectations last month 47.9 1 year inflation last month 6.6% 5- year inflation last month 4.2% This month the survery results are more positive: Consumer sentiments 60.5 versus 53.5 estimate Current conditions 63.7 versus 59.4 estimate. Expectations 58.4 versus 49.0 estimate 1-year inflation 5.1% down

Previous close 7.1715 Injects 202.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos At 1.40% 135bn yuan mature today injects net 67.5bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NBC is reporting that Trump says: Iran officials are calling him to discuss the situation. Iran missed opportunity to make a deal, but they might now have another opportunity This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company says there has been no damage to oil refineries or storage tanks. — Iran is a global player in the oil market, despite sanctions. There is cocnern on the impact of the strokes on the poil market: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium This article was

Prior month -1.4% Manufacturing sales for April -2.8% versus -2.0% expected -the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since January 2022. Details: Key contributors to the decline were: Petroleum and coal products: -10.9% Motor vehicles: -8.3% Primary metals: -4.4% Excluding petroleum and coal products, manufacturing sales still fell 1.8%. Year-over-year, total

For what it is worth, Iran is threatening a retaliatory attack, in a letter to the UN Security Council, saying: Iran will respond decisively, proportionally to Israelis unlawful, cowardly acts. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior quarter 79.8% (revised to 79.7%) The industrial capacity utilization rate is the ratio of an industry’s actual output to its estimated potential output. This is not a market moving release but it shows further improvement, which is what you generally see when the central bank eases monetary policy. Further details: The capacity utilization rate

Prior month +0.2% Wholesale trade for April -2.3% versus -0.9% expected Sales declined in 6 of 7 subsectors, accounting for 81.6% of total wholesale sales. The motor vehicle and parts subsector saw the largest drop: -6.5% to $14.3 billion. Year-over-year, wholesale sales were up 0.1% in April. In volume terms, wholesale sales (excluding specified categories)

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Bloomberg reports that Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, expects a trade deal with the US to spare Tokyo from higher auto tariffs. Akazawa said that if they reach a deal with the US it should secure special treatment for Japan, and exclude it from rules that apply to most countries. As a reminder, the

The headline news from Israel and Iran will be continue. The goal is the Iranian enrichment program. Will they give it up? Will they dig in? Other than that, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary data for June will be released at 10 AM with: Sentiment expected to rise to 53.5 from 52.2. Current

The major US indices are set to open lower after Israelis strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and nuclear scientists and military leaders. Iran in a letter to the UN. Counsel said that they will respond decisively and proportionally to the attacks. In premarket trading, the futures are employing lower levels for the major indices. Currently,

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.8% and that’s not all too comforting for the ECB, though at least they are on pause mode through the summer. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Israeli PM Netanyahu: We are at a decisive moment in Israel’s history Our pilots are striking many targets in Iran Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival This operation will continue for as many days as it takes This operation will hurt

Had given Iran 60 day ultimatum for a deal. Today is day 61. Iran has perhaps a second chance. Trump continues to push Iran for a deal and avoid further escalation. As a reminder, Iran said that they won’t attend the nuclear talks planned for Sunday. If they decide to go, that would be a

The major US stock indices are lower but off the premarket levels awed by the futures. The NASDAQ index is down -162.2 or -0.83%. The S&P index is down -46.2 or -0.76%. The Dow is down -575 points or -1.34%. Shares of Adobe are getting hammered after beating expectations and guiding marginallly higher. Go figure.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Some weekend muzak … gets loud from 2:40 and louder from 3:20 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

July 20 2025 date being reported for the Japanese Upper House election. The 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election is scheduled by July 22, so July 20 seems reasonable. It’s a half-election for the upper house, with 124 of the 248 seats up for grabs the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition must retain at least 125 seats

Israel struck Iran with military action on their nuclear facilities and an ballistic military factories along with military leaders. That sent the US dollar higher. US yields are also marginally higher which is a bit unusual . Looking at the US yields: 2-year yield 3.911%, +0.6 basis point 5 year yield 3.962%, +0.4 basis points

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.6% vs +0.6% y/y prelim Prior +0.9% Core annual inflation continues to ease further, falling to 1.1% in May – down from 1.3% in April. That’s largely due to a further drop in services inflation, seen down to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%; revised to +2.4% Looking at the breakdown, there were decreases in output all around for intermediate goods (-0.7%), energy (-1.6%), capital goods (-1.1%), durable consumer goods (-0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (-3.0%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Israel military official says Israel is striking nuclear and military targets Israel is striking dozens of sites across Iran the Iranian nuclear programme is existential threat to Israel Iranian regime is advancing a secret program to build a nuclear weapon Iran has enough fusion material to make 15 nuclear bombs within days The timeline so

Iran has launched an attack on Iran. We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports are sketchy Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran Markets: Oil is rocketing higher, Brent highs circa US$73

Well, there’s still no real progress on a trade deal between the two countries. So, let’s see how this will change that for the coming weeks. But considering how much the two are speaking, I would expect the 9 July deadline to be kicked down the road in any case. This article was written by

Fundamental Overview The USD got under some renewed pressure this week following some soft US data. In fact, we got lower than expected US CPI and PPI data coupled with some weak jobless claims figures. This led to a more dovish repricing in interest rates expectations and a drop in Treasury yields. On the JPY

Headlines: Trump: Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left Iran pulls out of nuclear talks planned for Sunday Iran’s legitimate and powerful response will make Israel regret its foolish act Why it’s hard to see Iran starting a full-fledged war against Israel Israel is prepared for the possibility of a full-fledged war

We are prepared for this to keep going on for days. It depends partly on the Iranian response. We have already achieved a lot. Assessments continue. Israeli air strikes targeted Iranian ballistic missiles that were pointed towards Israel. The Israeli military is still trying to determine how things went. This sounds to me like Israel

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After easing back a little earlier, oil prices are ticking back up in the past hour or so again. WTI crude is now trading to $72.96, up 6% on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome to the Friday data agenda, only a light one. None of this is likely to be too impactful upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may

Trump tariffs ramp up consumer goods prices. Trump is expanding steel tariffs to cover a wider range of imported household appliances starting June 23, according to a notice posted Thursday. The new levies will apply to “steel derivative products,” which now include items like dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, and more. The tariffs—currently set at 50%

Even with the drop in wholesale prices last month marking three straight monthly declines, the index is still at its highest since February. Year-on-year, wholesale prices are still up 0.4% owing much to a price increase for food, beverages, and tobacco products. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal with the report: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials say Israeli official warned that a strike could come as soon as Sunday unless Iran agrees to halt production of fissile material Meanwhile, Trump is carrying on, posting his thoughts on social media: He doesn’t seem

The latest financial stress reading has fallen. In the week ending June 6, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index decreased to -0.81 from -0.54 the previous week. This is via the Federal Reserve, St. Louis branch research: measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series:

JPMorgan in a note issued Thursday (US time) kept its base case oil forecast unchanged, expecting prices to stay in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel through 2025 and around $60 in 2026 it warned however that under extreme geopolitical scenarios—particularly involving Iran—prices could double, potentially hitting $120–130 per barrel This comes amid heightened tensions in

Further reports that Israeli air force has begun a second wave of air strikes against Iran Also reports of unrest in Iran directed not against Israel. Both of these unconfirmed. More: Iranian state media confirms killing of Revolutionary Guards chief Salami in Israeli strike Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir: We are calling up

Trump comments come via a Fox reporter on social media: Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb We are hoping to get back to the negotiating table Negotiating table? Good luck with that. It might be a while before speaking again. Added: U.S. official says we still intend to have talks Sunday between U.S. and Iran

Prior +8.0% New yuan loans ¥620.0 billion vs ¥850.0 billion expected Prior ¥280.0 billion New bank loans in China continue to moderate after the surge in Q1, which was largely due to policymakers ramping up stimulus in anticipation of a trade war with the US. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Iranian state media conveying a statement from Iran’s Armed Forces General staff that Israel and the US wil “pay a very heavy price”. US and Israel will receive “harsh blow” in response “Israel and the United States will recieve a forceful slap” Iran’s Armed Forces would be retaliating in force soon with counter strikes “a

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.2% and that’s down from 2.4% in the month before. Progress. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

White House sends a Statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration

The announcement confirms that the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Gholam Ali Rashid, was also killed by Israel’s attacks. That alongside armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami as reported earlier here. Iran is out saying now that Israel has crossed all red lines and it sees

ING says the oil market is now factoring in a higher risk premium due to rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strike on Iran. uncertainty has increased significantly Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of crude per day and exports around 1.7 million if tensions escalate, it’s not hard to imagine a disruption in Iranian oil

Reuters with the report on the Musk – Trump feud, and therefore if role of Musk’s SpaceX in Golden Dome missile shield is in question. Reuters cite “three people familiar with the project”. In brief: until recently there was a plan for SpaceX, Musk’s rocket and satellite venture, to partner with software maker Palantir and

Iran’s atomic agency chief has reportedly told Iranian media outlets that the Natanz nuclear facility has been completely destroyed. Other reports say “severely damaged”. This was an earlier pic from Iranian media. Earlier: Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium Iran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy price Trump convenes the

German DAX futures -1.8% UK FTSE futures -0.4% The overall risk mood is on the defensive with S&P 500 futures also weighed down by 1.4% currently. Safety flows are dominating and that’s helping with gold staying bid going into the session ahead. However, oil is the standout amid fears of retaliation by Iran with WTI

As it happened: We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports are sketchy Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran Market response to Israel attack on Iran: Yen up, Oil rockets higher. Updates:

Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 30%, down from 35%, citing easing trade tensions following a fresh US-China negotiaitons: a framework on tariff rates the lifting of Chinese export restrictions on rare earths renewed access for Chinese students to U.S. universities The bank noted that

Reports of another wave of Israeli strikes on Iran has begun More: It looks likely that that Israel eliminated the top echelon of the Iranian military. An Israeli official: Alongside extensive strikes by the Israeli Air Force, the Mossad led a series of covert counter-terrorism operations deep inside Iran. These operations were designed to damage

Israel struck numerous military and nuclear targets in Iran overnight, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Of note, Iran has confirmed that Natanz nuclear facility was hit several times and has been reportedly destroyed. And among the casualties of the strikes by Israel were Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards

Financial Times is gated, link here if you can access the outlet. Earlier reports (see below) seemed focused on Sunday, FT ciitng people familiar now saying strikes could come as soon as today, Friday, June 13, 2025. What we know so far is that, Axios say that the Trump Administration has informed Israel that the

The Natanz nuclear facility was confirmed to have been hit several times and is reported to be “completely destroyed” here. The IAEA also notes that Iran has mentioned that its Bushehr nuclear power plant was not targeted in the overnight attacks by Israel. The Bushehr power plant is Iran’s first ever commercial nuclear reactor. This

US initial jobless claims 248K versus 240K estimate US May PPI +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion a 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.844% Trump signals a climb-down on immigration enforcement Trump: I don’t like that oil prices have gone up Trump: I would love to avoid a

The final piece of the Fed puzzle next week could be a meaningful one if Bank of America is right. The retail sales report is due on Tuesday, just one day ahead of the FOMC decision. The consensus for the headline right now is +0.1% but they expect it to be soft, including a ‘control

BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). 47.5, from 53.3 in April return to contraction after four consecutive months of expansion well below the average of 52.5 since it began BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: May result was disappointing the sector had appeared to have turned a corner at the start of 2025 BNZ’s Senior Economist

Shite House statement says Trump will hold a meeting of the National Security Council in the White House situation room Friday, June 13, 2025, at 11am to discuss the Israeli strikes in Iran Meanwhile, Iranian outlets claim that Iran will declare war on Israel and retaliate “soon.” — Summary so far: Israeli strikes hit key

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Reports that Israel has detected missile launches from Iran This is not much of a surprise. Unconfirmed so far. An escalation. more to come As it unfolded: We got a 10 minute or so warning: Financial Times reports Israeli strike on Iran could come today, Friday 13 June Then: Explosions heard in Tehran – reports

Deutsche Bank expects U.S. economic momentum to slow into the second half of the year, though a recession remains unlikely. Still, the bank cautions that rising trade tensions and policy unpredictability are starting to undermine the structural funding advantage the U.S. has long enjoyed. Strategists remain structurally bearish on the U.S. dollar, warning that reputational

The latest from Lutnick This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran, this via Axios: Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire state of Israel Israeli Defense Minister says following Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and its civilian population

Bank of America today succinctly waded into what I think is the most-important macroeconomic question right now: Was the 2000-2020 period of low inflation a sign of central banks taming inflation or a historical one-off that won’t be repeated in the future. Economist Michael Woodward writes: In the 20th century, the average inflation rate among

US indices close lower. Dow Industrial Average unchanged. Bessent says countries negotiating in good faith could see tariff deadlines rolled Canada/US reportedly exchanging potential terms on economic and security deal Cardholder data shows Canadian consumer spending continued to hold up in May Iran’s Mission to UN: Diplomacy not militarism is the only path forward. Crude

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is speaking in a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing Says countries negotiating in good faith could see trade deadlines rolled forward We are looking to insert fairness into China trade relationship China trade fairness could come thru reduced exports to U.S., or through a rebalancing of world’s two largest economies On other

Treasury Secretary Bessent sayd: EU has been “very intractable” (syn: extremely stubborn, hard to handle, resistant) in trade talks Does not think tariffs are taxes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The push me/pull me on Iran continues. Trump says: I want to have an agreement with Iran Fairly close to an agreement with Iran I’d prefer a more friendly path to an agreement There is a chance of a massive conflict. Something could happen soon… HMMMM… is the “something happen soon” and agreement or a

The “deal” is mainly just an exchange of easing of export controls. China will be easing that for rare earths and magnets but reports are suggesting it will only be temporary. Meanwhile, the US is supposedly to do the same on key technology but Bessent clarified yesterday that restrictions will still apply for AI chip

Last week’s less-dovish pivot from the ECB got the euro to 1.1490 and it’s back there now on a soft US CPI. So far, sellers at 1.1500 have defended both but it’s a battle worth watching carefully as it could bring the pair to the highest since 2021. Other than brief moment in late April,

Inflation likely to stay around 2% in the near future. He’s not providing anything new to his previous comments here. They’ve been making victory laps last week and now will just sit back and wait for the summer data before deciding what to do next. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

High yield 4.844% WI level at the time of the auction 4.859%. Tail -1.5 basis points versus the six month average of up +0.1 basis points. Bid-to-cover 2.43X vs six month average of 2.39X Directs (domestic buyers) 23.4% versus six month average of up 22.3% Indirects 65.2% versus six month average of 63.2% Dealers 11.4%

The USD is lower after the lower PPI data and the higher initial and continuing claims. The weakness in the jobs is a shift from the norm that has defined the range. Looking at the continuing claims data, the break higher is evident. For the initial claims, the trend has not broken out of the

Sector Overview Today’s stock market activity paints a dynamic picture, strongly influenced by the performance of different sectors. The technology sector emerged as a significant performer, led by gains in software infrastructure stocks. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) surged by 14.15%, showcasing robust investor confidence. Similarly, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) added 0.99% and 1.70% respectively, reflecting

Gold is climbing and nearing the $3400 mark. With last week’s high reaching $3403.44 that target is being approached. The current price is trading at $3,388 up $30.07 or 0.9% on the day. The high-priced reached $3,398.98 so far The peak for the year remains April’s high at $3500. Rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are

Initial jobless claims: Prior week initial jobless claims 247K revised to 248K Initial jobless claims 248K versus 240K estimate. Highest since October 2024 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 240.25K versus 235.25K last week Continuing claims: Prior week 1.902 million revised from 1.904 million. Continue climb to 1.956 million versus 1.910 million estimate.

On Iran, Trump says: Iran’s going to have to negotiate tougher I would love to avoid a conflict with Iran. Crude oil spiked to the downside on the comment to $67.71 but has sent back to $68 currently. The price is also back below its 200 day moving average near $68.45. Earlier today, the price

Eurozone core inflation still elevated, but on a good path. Eurozone headline inflation will ease further in Q1 2026 due to energy price base effect, will return to 2% over medium term. ECB is in a good place in terms of monetary policy. We are very far from de-anchoring of inflation expectations to the downside.

The Federal Reserve is saying that US household net worth fell to 169.3 trillion in Q1 2025: Real estate holdings fell by -$0.2 trillion in Q1. US stock market value fell by $-2.3 trillion in Q1 Nonfinancial debt expanded by 2.8% annualized rate in Q1. Total household debt increased by 1.9% annualized rate in Q1.

The weakness in the USD is extending. Catalysts cited include: easing trade tensions, or at least not worsened expectations of closer Fed rate cuts given the softer CPI EUR/USD has hit a seven-week high, and other FX is rising alongside, yen and Swissy notably. CAD, AUD, NZD are all laggards This article was written by

The AUDUSD continues to trade within a choppy but technically respectful range. On the 4-hour chart above, price action stalled yesterday after reaching to a new high for the year, but within a key swing area and the 61.8% retracement of the October-to-March move lower, between 0.65357 and 0.65537. Sellers leaned against that area and

The great, big, beautiful bill will grow the economy like it has never grown before. It is cutting expenses by $1.6 trillion. It puts our country on the right track. Trump’s bill is certainly important now for growth given the contractionary tariffs policy. I think the markets are pretty much sure the bill will pass,

Trump is out with a new message on immigration that signals that he’s not looking to deport illegal immigrants who have followed the law. This is in contrast to some of the reports lately — particularly in California — of a mass roundup of all illegal immigrants. Trump wrote: Our great Farmers and people in

Why is Boeing Stock Dropping Today? Critical Investor Update and Key Levels to Watch If you’ve been searching, “why is Boeing stock going down today,” you’re not alone. Boeing shares fell sharply today, June 12, following the unfortunate Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash near Ahmedabad. Initial reactions have driven the stock significantly lower, fueled

The GBPUSD extended higher today, reaching a new high for the year at 1.3622—the highest level since February 2022. This move also pushed the pair above last week’s high at 1.36158, signaling an attempt to continue the bullish trend. However, the breakout was short-lived. Momentum quickly faded, and the price reversed lower, failing to hold

Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks. Given his TACO reputation, probably not. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.