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Bank of Japan Governor Ueda appearing at 0100 GMT/21:00EDT in the Japanese parliament (Diet) Ueda and PM Ishiba This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Disinflation process has continued. All MPC agree on disinflation, I see greater downside risks. Supply chain data points more clearly to disinflation than noisy wage data. Core inflation stalled around 3.2% and it’s now back up to 3.8% but they are saying that disinflation has continued. Go figure… This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

See no need now to change our baseline view on Japan’s economy. See no change to big picture of Japan’s economy, price developments since we released our outlook report on May 1. Many trade negotiations with US still going on, uncertainty remains high. Whether to raise interest rates and likely timing of such a move

The Bank of Japan is being urged by market participants to either maintain or ease the pace of its bond purchase tapering beyond fiscal 2026, according to a summary of meetings the Bank held in late May with bond market players. The requests reflect growing concern over recent volatility in super-long Japanese government bond (JGB)

German DAX futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.1% It’s a tentative start to the new week/month for European equities. There was a slightly softer mood yesterday but is going to be balanced out at the open later. This comes with US futures leaning back lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.3% currently. Trade developments remain

The sources say that the US has sent a “long” and “tough” list of requests to Vietnam as part of tariff negotiations between the two countries. One part of that being a call for Vietnam to effectively cut its reliance on Chinese supply chains. This was always going to be one of the trickier deals

Reuters had this report on the response from the EU to Trump’s move to double tariffs. In brief, the European Commission announced on Monday that it will push hard this week for the United States to scale back or scrap tariffs, despite Donald Trump’s pledge to double duties on steel and aluminium imports to 50%.

📊 Sector Overview Today’s market snapshot reveals a dynamic landscape, with a noticeable surge in the semiconductor sector leading the charge. Major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) have posted significant gains of +2.61% and +2.08% respectively, driving positive sentiment in the tech domain. This upswing highlights robust demand and possibly favorable industry news

It’s good to be back after a wonderful trip to the Finance Magnates Africa Summit in Cape Town, which was a great event. What a spectacular city, though I didn’t have nearly enough time to see it. I managed to miss the reversal on EU tariffs and the TACO fun while the US dollar has

Japanese firms’ wage and price-setting behaviour could change significantly due to tariffs impact BOJ bond buying is exerting intended effect on improving bond market functionality Many bond market players in recent meeting shared BOJ view on that BOJ must continue to balance predictability and flexibility with regards to bond taper plan in April 2026 USD/JPY

The Trump administration is urging trade partners to submit their best offers by Wednesday, aiming to wrap up negotiations ahead of a looming July 8 deadline tied to its suspended “Liberation Day” tariffs. A draft letter from the U.S. Trade Representative, seen by Reuters, outlines requests for detailed proposals on tariff and quota levels for

It’s been a shaky few days for Tesla (TSLA), and the chart is flashing some classic red flags that traders would be wise to pay attention to. Tesla closed yesterday with a 1.09% decline, but that’s only part of the story. From its recent high just three days ago, the stock has dropped more than

Prior was 7.192 million (revised to 7.20M) Quits rate 2.0% vs 2.1% prior Layoffs 1.1% vs 1.0% prior Hires rate 3.5% vs 3.4% prior This is a nice rebound from the low number in March, though we’re still near the lowest levels of the past two years. It’s surprising that job openings rose in April,

Standard Chartered expects the euro to consolidate around the 1.14 level, supported by a stable European Central Bank policy outlook and improving German sentiment, but tempered by potential shifts back into US assets. In a client note, the bank highlighted that the euro remains largely driven by both US dollar dynamics and domestic European macro

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Minutes of BOJ’s meeting with bond market players showed there were only few who wanted tweak to existing bond-taper plan Minutes of BOJ’s meeting with bond market players showed many thought it was important for BoJ to continue tapering bond buying while striking balance between flexibility and predictability Minutes of

New Zealand Q1 2025 terms of trade index +1.9% q/q expected +3.6%, prior +3.1% for the y/y +17% – Export Prices +7.1%, led by dairy prices expected +3.7%, prior +3.2% Import Prices +5.1% expected +1.3%, prior +0.1% Stats NZ cites the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s trade weighted NZD index fell 5.3% y/y in the

The USD remains on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted a couple of weeks ago. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price out the remaining rate

Chinese markets are reopening today after the holiday Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain

Trump’s tariffs are still the main thing that is keeping markets on edge as we get into June trading. Wall Street managed a modest recovery yesterday, led by tech shares. But even so, there’s still a lot of uncertainty up in the air on the trade front at the moment. Let’s try and take stock

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: US tariffs will likely affect Japan’s economy through various channels but it will probably first come via export firms If US tariffs hurt exporters’ profits, that could have broader impact on households, firms such as by souring consumer sentiment Japan’s real wages are negative, aware that is having big impact

Business surveys are probably better guide to UK outlook than recent GDP data. GDP is always a very lagging indicator. Pattern from forward-looking surveys is not as strong for outlook as latest GDP. Official data showing negative productivity growth in the UK last year is a puzzle, as it is usually associated with severe recession.

TMGM, a global leader in online trading and investment services, was one of the official partners of the prestigious end-of-season CFC Awards 2025 ceremony. The glittering event at London’s iconic Grosvenor House on May 4 brought together Chelsea’s Men’s, Women’s, and Academy teams to celebrate outstanding achievements throughout the 2024-25 season. As Chelsea FC’s Official

Reserve Bank of Australia assistant Gov Hunter: Higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy Assuming weaker global growth environment will moderately dampen prices for tradable goods Higher uncertainty can lead to declines in investment, output and employment Higher global uncertainty has a large negative effect on Australian business investment Australia’s exporters

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted a couple of weeks ago. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price out the

Key factors for May rate decision were domestic, not tariffs. We have not seen particular inflation surprises. Labour market has loosened somewhat. Pay growth is above levels consistent with a 2% inflation target but lower than expected in February. Path of slowing pay growth is intact. The UK continues to have the highest core inflation

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.3% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% It’s a bit of catching up to the late bounce in Wall Street but any optimism there is balanced out by a slight drop as well in US futures today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.35%

Economic, price environment is becoming more complex Economic developments have changed sharply since Trump’s tariffs in April Tariffs could hurt demand via heightened uncertainty, which could weigh on the economy Firms could swallow rising costs from tariffs but this will worsen corporate profits In turn, that will have negative impact on wages Tariffs could affect

It’s still all about trade uncertainty at the moment, as we await more headlines to work with during the week. There’s still only 36 days to go before Trump’s deadline for trade deals, so time’s a-wasting. That being said, the courts are also still doing battle on the reciprocal tariffs so we’ll have to see

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

In the European session, we will get the inflation reports for Switzerland and Eurozone. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at -0.1% vs 0.0% prior. The market is pricing a 32% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming SNB meeting. A miss should increase the expectations for the larger cut but might not

🌍 2025 global GDP growth forecast seen at 2.9% (previously 3.1%) 🌍 2026 global GDP growth forecast seen at 2.9% (previously 3.0%) 🇺🇸 2025 US GDP growth forecast seen at 1.6% (previously 2.2%) 🇺🇸 2026 US GDP growth forecast seen at 1.5% (previously 1.6%) 🇪🇺 2025 Eurozone GDP growth forecast seen at 1.0% (unchanged) 🇪🇺

Fundamental Overview In the final part of last week, the trade tensions returned as Trump accused China of violating their agreement. We also saw a general step up in Trump’s hawkish rhetoric on tariffs with the President announcing an increase to 50% on steel tariffs starting tomorrow. Maybe being called TACO made him mad. In

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.7% Headline annual inflation in the euro area dips back under the 2% level with core annual inflation also seen easing further on the month. That just supports rate cut bets by the ECB and will not make it complicated for policymakers to deliver another

Would have preferred bank rate to have followed a different path. Overly restrictive policy risks supressing demand and disincentivising investment. Risks to inflation and growth tilted to the downside. She’s an uber dove so nothing surprising in her comments. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US extends tariff pause on some Chinese goods through to August 31. Bloomberg with the info. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Tuesday to discuss how to implement a recent trade pact, as concerns mount over new U.S. steel tariffs. The meeting comes during Reynolds’ three-day trip to Paris and Brussels, where he will also review recent political trade understandings with both the

New York Times with the report that: Trump administration to eliminate federal protections banning drilling and mining in Alaska wilderness more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Economy moving gradually into excess supply Future policy decisions require certainty that inflation is on track Tariffs expected to have small impact on UK economy Slack opening up in labour market will guide policy This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 0.0% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.6% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Trump yelling out policy on Iran via his own socila media app: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Chamber of Commerce to the EU: Expresses disappointment and serious concerns about EU’s move to limit Chinese enterprises’ participation in healthcare sector Urges EU to reconsider the necessity and long-term implications of the approved ‘restrictive measures’ in EU procurement market for medical devices Will continue to maintain open communication with all relevant EU stakeholders

Reserve Bank of Australia May minutes: Board considered keeping rates unchanged, cutting by 25 bps or 50 bps Decided case for 25 bps cut was stronger one, preferred policy to be cautious and predictable Inflation still not at mid-point of target band, labour market still tight Board agreed developments in domestic economy alone warranted a

Deutsche Bank expects the European Central Bank to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% at its June 5 meeting, marking a cumulative 200bp of cuts from the peak and bringing rates closer to a neutral stance. The bank anticipates the ECB will maintain its meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach to policy decisions.

The Bank of Japan is expected to halt its quarterly reductions in government bond purchases starting next fiscal year, according to former board member Makoto Sakurai. The central bank has been trimming its bond buying by ¥400 billion every quarter since last summer, but recent pressure from rising yields has likely made further cuts too

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda appeared in parliament today. Comments here. He is still speaking. One remark in particular caught my eye: No preset plan for rate hikes, will raise interest rates only if economy, prices turn up again, outlooks likely to be realised This contrasts with what he has been saying in past months:

Japanese media cite an unnamed source for the info: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap general election if the main opposition party submits a no-confidence motion Ishiba has told his aides that “a dissolution of the House of Representatives will come in sight if a no-confidence is

The EURUSD moved higher earlier today and in doing so reached toward a swing area high between 1.1406 and 1.14239. The price traded mostly above the low of that swing area (there was one brief look below the low of the level which was quickly reversed) The buyers are more in control. The next key

From July 1, the minimum wage will be increased from $24.10 per hour, to $24.94 an hour. the increase is above inflation, currently at 2.4% but less than the 4.5% called for by the Australian Council of Trade Unions This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Catherine Mann is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England, speaking at an event in Washington, DC: policy in the US is a contributing factor to high volatility in UK assets the 10 year gilt is being impacted heavily by spillover from the US QT can offset some of the

Major US indices close higher to start the new week US extends tariff pause on some Chinese goods through to August 31 Crude oil futures and settle at $62.52 Trump Administration: We want countries “best offer” by Wednesday in tariff talks US deal with Iran allows them to enrich Uranium at low levels Ukraine Zelenskyy:

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann takes part in the Fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors IF 75th anniversary conference, Washington DC. Rising inflation numbers in the UK are weighing on marekt expectations of further Bank of England rate cuts. Ears open if Mann

WTI crude oil settled at $62.52, up $1.73 or +2.85% on the day. The price traded as high as $63.84 and as low as $61.55 during the session. Technically, the rally extended into a key swing area between $63.52 and $64.14 (see red numbered circles), but still fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the

US deficit, that is a “big deal” Bond market will have a tough time because of deficit US bond market spread will “gap out”. Markets feel complacent. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Trump Administration wants countries best offer by Wednesday in tariff talks. – Draft of Request. Since the Saudi Arabia week where deals were aplenty and it started with the China/US reduction in tariffs, the promised deals have been 0 over the last 2-weeks despite promises for more deals from the likes of Hassett, Navarro

The US proposed nuclear deal with Iran Allows Iran to enrich uranium at low levels Does not include full dismantlement of nuclear facilities This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. dollar is lower today primarily due to renewed concerns over President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and their potential to hinder economic growth and increase inflation. The dollar has been under pressure from fears of capital outflows, as investors react to trade tensions, particularly with China, and uncertainties around a potential U.S. “revenge

The Wall Street Journal with the news that Stanley Fischer has died at 81. His death was confirmed by the Bank of Israel: Fisher was governor of the Bank of Israel from 2005 to 2013 was vice chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2017 was a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute

The AUDUSD is sharply higher today, up 0.84% on the session, and making a decisive break away from a significant technical confluence of moving averages. The rally has propelled the pair above: The 100-hour MA at 0.64403 The 200-day MA at 0.6445 The 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6450 That tight MA cluster

So far we’ve had excellent inflation reports; Surprisingly little direct impact of tariffs. Don’t know if that will remain true in the next one – two months. Thinks underneath all the Tariff dirt in the air, rates can come down over 12 – 18 months Thinks if we can get past this bumpy period, dual

BOE Mann says: Must consider interactions of QT and rate decisions. QT tightening cannot perfectly offset rate cuts This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures also leaning towards the softer side. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% currently. That as trade tensions are keeping up with US and China not finding much common ground during this break period. This from Friday: Trump: China has totally violated its

Dallas Fed Pres. Lorrie Logan: Despite the uncertainty, financial market volatility, the US economy is resilient. Labor market stable. Inflation still somewhat above target. Risks are balanced on both sides of the mandate. If tariffs change inflation expectations and that would be significant. Market volatility, uncertainty could cause households, businesses to pull back. Monetary policy

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results: Looking at the closing levels: German DAX, -0.28% Frances CAC -0.19% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.02% Spain’s Ibex +0.36% Italy FTSE MIB -0.26% as London/European traders look to exit, the US stock indices are also mixed: Dow Industrial Average -0.47% S&P index -0.08% NASDAQ index

Zelenskyy says: Russia and Ukraine agree to exchange 1000 military servicemen each It would be an additional 200 each. Ukraine and Russia to exchange lists for the POW exchange this week Another step in the right direction. I wonder if a POW does not want to be a POW again. So why continue to be

Russia sees the beginning of complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Russian territory – including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions – as one of the options for establishing a ceasefire. As part of the memorandum envisions lifting of all existing and rejection of new economic sanctions and restrictive measures between Russia and Ukraine envisions

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3% It’s all positive for the Swiss economy in Q1 with the services sector posting growth. But there was a big boost in exports as firms appeared to be sending out products to the US in the rush to beat Trump’s tariffs. So, there’s that too. This article was written by

Prior month -0.8% revised from -0.5% previously reported. Construction spending -0.4% versus 0.3% expected Overall much weaker than expected from US construction spending as it reacts to higher rates and economic/employment uncertainty. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A couple of data points from Australia for May 2025: ANZ Job Advertisements -1.2% m/m prior -0.3% Melbourne Institute Australian headline monthly inflation gauge -0.4% m/m in May biggest fall in 33 months and 2.6% y/y (from 3.3% in April) Trimmed mean: -0.3% m/m (biggest fall in three years) 2.8% y/y (from 3.3% in April)

FIB says its aware of and fully investigating a targeted terror attack in Boulder, Colorado agents and local law enforcement are on the scene Nothing further at this stage. More: in Boulder’s Pearl Street Mall an incendiary device was thrown at walkers at the Run for Their Lives walk on Pearl Street as they were

The 15-year anniversary promotions will run for 4 consecutive weeks, rewarding participants with a 100% deposit bonus of up to $3,750 per week, adding up to a total of $15,000 per trader. “Fifteen years is a significant milestone, and we wanted to celebrate it in the way we know best: by giving back to our

The latest GDP growth for Q2 rises to 4.6% from 3.8%. In your own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau

More from Logan: With oil prices down, there’s a risk of lower production, capital investment by energy companies. Repeats a common comment, that at all banks should be set up to use the discount window Healthy banks should use the discount window On oil production, the Trump administration’s has touted the idea of drill, drill,

Oil sold off on Friday following the Reuters report saying that OPEC+ could discuss an oil output hike larger than 411,000 bpd for July over the weekend. That of course created expectations for a larger production increase and therefore weighed on the market. The group though underdelivered on those expectations as it hiked by 411,000

In the European session, we will get the final readings of the PMIs for UK and the major European economies. These shouldn’t change anything in terms of market pricing unless we get big revisions. In the American session, we have the Canadian Manufacturing PMI, the final reading of the S&P Global US PMI and the

This of course follows from Akazawa’s visit to Washington last week. And by the looks of it, there wasn’t any notable progress as seen in the aftermath here. So, Ishiba’s comment only serves to reinforce that sentiment. Akazawa will again be heading to the US for talks later in the week. Tick tock, tick tock.

The USDCAD opened the day with a modest move higher, but on the daily chart, the rally once again stalled just below a key technical level—the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline at 1.37415. The high reached 1.3738 before reversing lower (see chart above). That rejection helped push the pair lower and ultimately to a

Prior month 45.3 Canada may manufacturing PMI 46.1 Looking at the details from the S&P global: Headline PMI: 46.1 in May (up from 45.3 in April) Below 50.0 for the 4th consecutive month → continued contraction Production & Orders: Output and new orders declined again; contractions remained steep International demand especially weak; export orders fell

ICYMI – JP Morgan CEO Dimon said China not going to come bow down to the US on trade Recap – Japan Q1 capex jumps 6.4%, offering domestic support despite GDP dip BoJ confirms loss provision on bonds transactions was 100% for fiscal 2024 Heads up for (b/s) ‘rumours’ doing the rounds of Powell to

Priot month 48.7 Details: 🔻 Prices Paid: 69.4 vs. 69.8 last month 🔺 Employment: 46.8 vs. 46.5 last month 🔺 New Orders: 47.6 vs. 47.2 last month 🔺 Production: 45.4 vs. 44.0 last month 🔺 Supplier Deliveries: 56.1 vs. 55.2 last month 🔻 Inventories: 46.7 vs. 50.8 last month 🔻 Customer Inventories: 44.5 vs. 46.2

Headlines: No love for the dollar to start June trading US futures hold lower ahead of North America trading Crude oil rallies as OPEC+ hikes output by less than expected What are the current interest rate expectations for the major central banks? EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic will meet US Trade Representative Greer on Wednesday Japan

📈 Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic yet volatile landscape, with technology stocks experiencing notable declines while the healthcare sector exhibits significant resilience. 🚀 Semiconductors Lead Tech Decline The technology sector, driven heavily by semiconductors, shows mixed results. Although Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 1.06%, others like Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR) dropped

Preliminary 52.3 Prior 50.2 Final S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0 From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying developments under the hood of the US manufacturing economy. While growth of new orders picked up and suppliers were reportedly busier as companies

CNBC is reporting that Trump and Xi are to speak this week, but not today. Trump accused China of violating the trade agreement reached in May that lowered tariffs from 145% to 35%. In early April 2025, China imposed export restrictions on seven heavy rare earth metals and rare earth magnets, citing national security concerns.

Bank of Japan confirms that levels of provision for possible losses on bonds transactions was 100% for fiscal 2024. This is re the Nikkei report very early today: The Bank of Japan has boosted its provisions for JGB losses – braced for higher rates This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The meeting will be held in Paris. As a reminder, Trump recently threatened a 50% tariff on EU to force them to accelerate trade talks and then “paused” the tariff till the original deadline on July 9th. More recently, Trump hiked tariffs on steel to 50% and the European Commission said on Saturday that the

Markets will face a heavy load of high-impact economic data highlighed by the US and Canada jobs report on Friday, and central bank events next week. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank are expected to cut rates next week. Of course, the wild card will be trade news.. The week is starting with

Japan tariff negotiator Akazawa planning to visit the US for tariff talks for 4 days from Thursday Jiji news via Reuters This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ukraine is now saying: Ukraine handed over to Russia delegation a list of deported children to be returned home. Ukraine and Russia are preparing a new exchange of prisoners of war. Ukraine and Russia did meet for talks today. Those talks are now over. We could see more headlines from both Russia and Ukraine. This

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke in an interview with CBC: China is holding back products essential to industrial supply chain Believes Trump will talk to China’s Xi very soon – ‘Very soon’. What does that even mean? Just an effort at a pump really. Every day Bessent’s credibility diminishes just a little more. This article

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook, full text here: The Effects of Tariffs on the Three I’s: Inflation, Inflation Persistence, and Inflation Expectations ‘Good news’ rate cuts remain possible later this year Rate cut view rests on easing inflation, tariffs on lower end of range Strong economy through April gives Fed time to

The market is pricing just one rate cut, on the other hand. The BoC has already cut quite aggressively and even delivered some insurance cuts for the trade war. The underlying inflation rate in Canada has been rising steadily since last December and with the aggressive monetary easing and easing in trade war tensions, we

Supply and demand conditions deteriorated markedly and interest rates rose significantly Market participants have been particularly concerned about significant decline in liquidity One participant said BOJ should amend plan to accelerate pace of tapering But another participant said BOJ should opt for more gradual pace of tapering instead One member said there is no problem

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, the US dollar just a touch weaker in early going: EUR/USD 1.1355 USD/JPY 143.88 GBP/USD 1.3457 USD/CHF 0.8239 USD/CAD 1.3738 AUD/USD 0.6441 NZD/USD 0.5974 Data over the weekend:

Tech shares are leading the declines as we see a bit of a setback for US equities following the late Friday bounce. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% so far on the day. It’s all about Trump and tariffs as we await more trade headlines to work with in the

There’s a busy week ahead full of economic events to watch for. Today, markets will monitor the manufacturing PMI figures from the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors International Finance Division’s 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington, D.C. Tuesday brings

That as confirmed by a spokesperson for the European Commission. Well, we’ll see how things go after that next meet. I wouldn’t hold my breath expecting for anything substantial though. It has taken so long for both sides just to start to sit down and really talk. So, it will be quite wishful thinking to

Fed: 53 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 54 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 39 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 37 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 72 bps (72% probability of rate

Prior 48.1 It’s the first time since January that Spain’s manufacturing sector records growth in activity. Output also turned positive while the fall in new orders on the month was much slower. There were positives all around with a renewed uptick in confidence and improvements in employment conditions as well. HCOB notes that: “Spain’s manufacturing

Prior 64.31k; revised to 63.60k Net consumer credit £1.6 billion vs £1.1 billion expected Prior £0.9 billion; revised to £1.1 billion The data is out a little earlier than scheduled. Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals decreased sharply in April, down by £13.7 billion to -£0.8 billion. This followed an increase in net borrowing

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price out the remaining rate cuts and give

Japan Capital Spending Q1 3025 +6.4% y/y expected +3.8%, prior –0.2% for the q/q +1.6% Capital Spending Ex Software +6.9% y/y expected +5.3%, prior +3.1% Company Sales +4.3% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.5% Company Profits +3.8% y/y expected +6.0%, prior +13.5% A bit of a mixed bag of results here. Profits not rising as much

I posted this from the Nikkei earlier, a reminder as we await the opening of Japanese markets for the week. Bank of Japan info comes via Japanese media, Nikkei (gated): The Bank of Japan has set aside the maximum provisions for losses on bond transactions a sign of how the central bank is preparing for

I’m going to call b/s on this, but just as a heads up to some garbage floating around the place: Jerome Powell will resign on Monday Trump plans on lowering interest rates Like I said, garbage, and b/s. But, there it is. The background to this baloney is: no evidence was provided to support the

OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, matching the increases already set for May and June. The decision marks a continuation of the group’s recent strategy shift aimed at reclaiming market share and pressuring members who have been exceeding their output quotas. According to Reuters, eight members are

Prior 45.4 Key details: Domestic and overseas market conditions remain turbulent Input cost and selling price inflation both ease Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “May PMI data indicate that UK manufacturing faces major challenges, including turbulent market conditions, trade uncertainties, low client confidence and rising tax-related wage costs. Downturns in

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% There will definitely be challenges in the weeks ahead, not least with trade negotiations between the US and EU. For today though, some tensions between US and China are adding to the stuttering start to the

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon spoke at the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum on Friday. In brief: said the US needs to get its act together on trade quickly said “the enemy within” is creating problems, need to fix issues such as how the US approaches permitting, regulation, taxation, immigration, education, and the healthcare system, also

China and New Zealand are both closed for public holidays today. Dragon Boat Festival holiday in China: Note that Hong Kong markets are open today. Kings Birthday holiday in New Zealand. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing (final ) for May 2025 49.4, confirming an 11th consecutive month of contraction for the sector preliminary 49.0 prior 48.7 Japan’s manufacturing sector edged closer to stabilisation in May, according to the latest survey from S&P Global, which showed milder declines in key indicators alongside a notable uptick in employment.

The preliminary for this was better, its here: Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash reading for May 2025: 51.7 (prior 51.7) Comes in at 51.0 prelim was 51.7, prior also 51.7 Production shrinks for the first time in three months New orders rise at weaker pace Stocks of purchases decline as buying activity falls Commentary

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1350 level, with large ones seen thereabouts as well for the days ahead. The expiries today might offer a bit of a floor for price action, alongside the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at

Prior -0.6% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs oil price forecasts: Brent crude (2025 average): $60 per barrel WTI crude (2025 average): $56 per barrel Brent crude (2026 average): $56 per barrel WTI crude (2026 average): $52 per barrel Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to deliver one last production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in August before keeping output steady from

Japanese corporate capital spending rose 6.4% year-on-year in Q1, rebounding from a slight decline in Q4 and suggesting resilient domestic demand despite broader economic challenges. The Ministry of Finance data released Monday shows capital expenditure grew 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, helping offset weak consumption and exports that led to a preliminary 0.7%

Responding to recent U.S. accusations that China violated the trade consensus reached in Geneva, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday that Beijing is aware of the claims. The ministry stated that following the May 12 release of the Joint Statement from the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Meeting, China acted in line with

Fed’s Waller: None of what drove pandemic inflation surge is in place now Just doesn’t see how tariffs would create persistent inflation Policy should look at real side of economy if inflation is close to target Fed is close to reaching inflation target Doubts a 10% tariff can get inflation up to 3% Markets determine

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, backed by Democrat Richard Blumenthal, is pushing for new Russia sanctions ahead of the G7 summit in mid-June. The bipartisan effort seeks to pressure China and India to stop buying discounted Russian oil. Their bill, now backed by 82 senators, proposes a 500% tariff on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil

Morgan Stanley expects the U.S. dollar to fall around 9% by the middle of next year, driven by slowing U.S. economic growth and aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. In a note dated May 31, via Bloomberg, gated, strategists led by Matthew Hornbach said the dollar could reach levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, as

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NVIDIA is reportedly working on a new AI chip designed for sale in mainland China, according to The Information. The chip, currently dubbed the B30, will enable Chinese customers to link multiple units together to build high-performance computing clusters—something not previously possible with available products. Major Chinese tech firms including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have

ICYMI, Ukraine used to drones to attack around 40 Russian war planes at 4 military bases. In summary: Ukraine says it completed its biggest long-range attack of the war Smuggled drones launched a series of strikes on 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases 117 drones were used striking “34% of [Russia’s] strategic cruise missile

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs from China for May: China May Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 (prior 49.0), Non-manufacturing 50.3 (prior 50.4) Note that Chinese markets are closed today, Monday, June 2, 2025, for a holiday. New Zealand markets are also closed today. The data agenda ahead is lower-tier only: This article

Bank of Japan info comes via Japanese media, Nikkei (gated): The Bank of Japan has set aside the maximum provisions for losses on bond transactions a sign of how the central bank is preparing for rising interest rates For fiscal 2024, the BOJ raised the level of provisions to 100% for the first time, Nikkei

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Saturday, May 31, 2025, official May 2025 PMIs Manufacturing Sector PMI: Rose to 49.5 (expected 49.5 and from 49.0 in April); still below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction for a second month. The improvement in May is likely reflecting some thawing in the icy trade

Certainly, here’s the revised version with all em dashes (—) replaced by regular hyphens (-): Tesla Under Pressure After NYT Drug Allegations Against Musk – But What Does the Market Tell Us? A weekend exposé by The New York Times titled “Musk’s Drug Use On Campaign Trail Stoked Concerns” has reignited scrutiny over Elon Musk’s

The USDCAD is the largest mover in the market today, down 0.67% with a high-to-low trading range of 114 pips, well above the 22-day average of 80 pips. The expanded range underscores strong directional momentum, particularly as sellers regained control following multiple failed upside attempts. Technically, the pair started the day with a brief push

Crude oil futures are settling at $60.79. That’s down $0.15 or -0.25% on the day. For the week, the price fell -1.59%. For the year, the price fell -15.43% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow modestly higher, the S&P unchanged and the Nasdaq modestly lower. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow Industrial Average, +54.34 points or 0.13% at 42,270.07 S&P down -0.48 points or -0.01% at 5911.69 Nasdaq down -62.11 points or -0.22% at 19113.77 The Russell

US major indices close mixed with the Dow higher, S&P unchanged, and Nasdaq lower. Crude oil futures settle at $60.79 More Japan Akazawa: No change in stance that tariffs, including those on auto, regretable Trump: Tariffs are important. He is happy with appeals court decision Iran says Pres. Trump threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities

More from Japan Akazawa: No change in stance that tariffs, including those on auto parts, regretable. Aim to complement US, Japan strength in chips This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Japan governments economy minister Akazawa met with US treasury secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick for 130 minutes: They agreed to accelerate trade talks, hold discussions again before G7 summit This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Markets will face a heavy load of high-impact economic data highlighed by the US and Canada jobs report on Friday, and central bank events next week. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank are expected to cut rates next week. Monday, June 2 10:00am (US) – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.3 | Prior: 48.7)

Iran says: US Pres. Trumps threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities is a clear red line. It will have severe consequences. Such threats are open hostility against Iran’s national interests if US seeks a diplomatic solution, it must abandon the language of threats and sanctions This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Tariffs are important. He is happy with the appeals court decision Elon will be back and forth, it is his baby. Many DOGE people are staying on. Will continue cuts surgically We will see the results long into the future. Musk: This is not the end , it is the beginning It is like a

U.S. equities ended the day higher across the board, supported by upbeat tech momentum and optimism around earnings and trade developments. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 117 points to 42,215.73 (+0.28%) S&P 500 gained 23.62 points to 5,912.17 (+0.40%) Nasdaq Composite climbed 74.93 points to 19,175.87 (+0.39%) Key Movers & Stories Nvidia (NVDA) surged +3.24%

The major European stock indices are closing mostly higher. The France’s CAC is the only decliner on the day. A snapshot of of the closing levels shows: German DAX rose 74.04 points or 0.31% at 24007.28. For the trading week, the index reached a new record high of 24225.97. The index is up 1.6% this

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Preliminary 50.8. Last month 52.2 Univ of Michigan sentiment final 52.2 vs 51.0 estimate Current conditions 58.6 vs 57.6 preliminary and 59.6 prior month Expectations 47.9 vs 46.5 preliminary and 47.3 prior month. 2nd worse for the year. Inflation expectations: 1 year inflation expectations 6.6% vs 7.3% preliminary. Prior month 6.5%. Down from the preliminary.

The EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD are trading mixed/modestly changed to start the US session. The big 3 are all trading near MA levels indicative of a market that is awaiting the next shove (or the weekend?). The US PCE data will be released (Feds favored inflation reading), US trade data(still super negative as companies front

USTR Greer is on CNBC and says: We have other tools if the tariff ruling goes the other way, as well Received emails and texts from foreign officials saying, “we are just going to keep negotiating with you as before.” Monitoring Chinese compliance — or non-compliance — with trade agreements. Expressed concern over China’s non-compliance,

The major US stock indices are trading lower to start the last trading day of the week end of the month. A snapshot of the levels currently shows: Dow Jones (DJI): 42,104.40, -111.33 (-0.26%) S&P 500 (SPX): 5,887.38, -24.79 (-0.42%) Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): 19,064.80, -111.07 (-0.58%) For the trading week, the indices are up between

Oil rig coun -4 to 461 Nat Gas +1 to 99 Total rigs -3 to 563. The price of crude oil is down around $0.50 at $60.40. For the week, the price is down -2.07%. For the month, the price is up +3.85% after the price closed last month at $58.17. For the year the

JPM Jamie Dimon: US should be taxing carry forward interest Not increase SALT deduction Says we are going to see a crack in the bond market. Don’t know if crisis will be in 6-months or 6-years. The Fed is right to give time to policy. The Fed has to wait and see. In the future

After attempting to break higher this week, USDCAD buyers continue to come up short at key resistance levels. On Thursday, the pair tried and failed to move above both the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the May trading range, stalling momentum. Today, after rallying in the Asian Pacific session, the price In

Today at 08:30 ET/12:30 GMT, we get the US April PCE price index data which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. This isn’t generally a strong market moving release because the data is old news given that it can be calculated pretty accurately from the CPI, PPI and import prices data. WSJ’s FedWatcher Nick Timiraos

White House Chief of Staff Miller has been sent out to speak about China: China must show its commitment to a rules-based international order. Trump’s hope is that China will choose the path of cooperation and common ground. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD moved lower after the data that showed inflation was under control – for now. The trade data saw a big improvement. The personal income data was solid. Not so hot is Pres. Trump tweeted that China violated the trade agreement: Stocks are lower. Yields are near unchanged. The USD moved lower initially, but

1620 GMT/1220 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Council for Economic Education’s 2025 National Economics Challenge, in Atlanta, Ga 1745 GMT/1345 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in panel before virtual Reagan National Economic Forum, in Simi Valley,

Australian credit growth is continuing: Australia Private Sector Credit April 2025 +0.7% m/m (expected +0.5%, prior +0.5%) But retail sales and building permits data out at the same time were both disppoitning: Australian April 2025 retail sales -0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%) Australian April building permits -5.7% m/m (expected +3.1%) AUD/USD is a little lower, but

Tech stocks struggle while healthcare gains: Today’s market overview The US stock market is showcasing a dynamic landscape today, characterized by struggles within the semiconductor sector and encouraging growth in healthcare stocks. Let’s dive into the current trends, sector performances, and strategic insights to help investors navigate these volatile times. 📉 Semiconductor Struggles: A Red

The Tokyo inflation data is here: Tokyo May 2025 headline CPI +3.4% y/y (3.4% expected) Core is at its highest since January 2023 Core-core is at its highest since January 2024 If these numbers translate into the national level CPI for the month, due ion around 3 weeks, it’ll boost Bank of Japan confidence that

The AUDUSD started the week on a strong note, breaking above recent resistance to post a new high for 2025 on Monday. However, that bullish breakout proved short-lived. Price quickly reversed lower, falling back below the key swing area between 0.6493 and 0.6500 (see red numbered circles), and momentum accelerated as the pair broke below

China’s US Embassy spokesperson: Both China and US have maintained communication over their respective concerns in the economic and trade fields on various bilateral and multilateral occasions at multiple levels. China has repeatedly raised concerns regarding US abuse of export control measures and semiconductor sector and other related practices. China urges US to cease discriminatory

ANZ New Zealand survey of consumer confidence for May 2025 comes in at 92.9 down from 98.3 in April This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China behaviour is completely unacceptable. We have other tools if the tariff ruling “goes the other way” as well. Tariffs litigation not hurting trade negotiations. I had emails and texts from foreign officials saying, “we’re just going to keep negotiating with you as before”. The US is very focused on monitoring China compliance on trade.

OPEC+ may discuss an oil output hike larger than 411,000 bpd for July. The meeting is tomorrow. Oil is of course down on the news on higher than expected output hike. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China has totally violated its agreement with US. So much for being Mr. Nice Guy Trump is unsatisfied with China’s behaviour and he’s now sharing his disapproval on his Truth Social. The US Treasury Secretary Bessent tonight admitted that talks with China have stalled but will have more in the coming weeks. This article was

Priot month 2.6% Core PCE MoM 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate. Prior month revise to 0.1% from 0.0% Core PCE YoY 2.5% versus 2.5% estimate. Prior month revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%. PCE MoM 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate. Prior month 0.0% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The other German state releases around the same time: Hesse CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.0% vs +1.8% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.4% y/y prior Not much change from the prior figures. Again,

Prior month -0.2% GDP Q/Q +0.5% vs 0.5% prior Goods producing industries xx% versus -0.6% last month Services producing industries xx% versus -0.1% last month Advanced estimate for the month of April +0.1% Exports of goods drove the growth in the first quarter of 2025, followed by accumulations of business non-farm inventories. Higher imports and

Prior +2.2% CPI (HICP) M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% expected Prior +0.5% Core CPI Y/Y +2.9% vs +2.9% prior Slightly higher than expected figures but nothing that will worry the ECB for the time being. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate rose sharply to 3.8% from 2.2% helped largely by the sharp rise in net exports. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May

BoE’s Taylor in the Financial Times, info via Reuters headlines: I’m seeing more risk piling up on the downside scenario because of global developments A trade war is going to be negative for growth Thought we needed to be on a lower monetary policy path Higher inflation not coming from demand and supply pressures, for

Prior +0.2% No change to the preliminary report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Lujiazui Forum 2025 will be held on June 18-19, 2025 in Shanghai. It is a high-level economic and financial forum co-hosted by the Shanghai Municipal People’s Government, the People’s Bank of China, the National Administration of Financial Regulation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. An official says central authorities are to announce major finanicial policies

Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward. A year ago tame PCE MoM data will fall off from the YoY calculation, putting upside pressure on the YoY levels. May 2024, 0.0% June 2024, 0.1% July 2024, 0.2% August 2024, 0.1% September 2024, 0.2% October 2024, 0.2% 3- month average: 0.1% 6-month average:

Prior quarter 2.6% GDP MoM March x.x% vs 0.1% estimate GDP QQ for Q1 x.x% vs 0.6% last. GDP QQ annualized x.x% vs 1.7% est. GDP Implicit pric QQ for Q1 x.x% vs 0.9% last GDP YoY Q1 x.x% vs 2.36% GDP MoM Mar This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy minister Akazawa: Will take appropriate actions while gathering necessary information when asked about US court blocking Tromp tariffs Mutual trust deepening between PM Ishiba and President Trump through phone talks two weeks in row This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian April 2025 retail sales % m/m expected +0.3%, prior +0.3% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan April retail sales +0.5% m/m expected +0.5%, prior –1.2% Retail Sales + 3.3% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +3.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up on Friday: 1730 GMT/1330 US Eastern time – Trump participates in a Press Conference with Elon Musk 2100 GMT/1700 US Eastern time – Trump delivers remarks on U.S. Steel deal This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan April 2025 unemployment rate 2.5% expected 2.5%, prior 254% Jobs to applicant ratio 1.26 expected 1.26, prior 1.26 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +3.9% PPI M/M -3.0% vs -2.4% prior This is a low tier indicator and also quite lagging, therefore never a market moving release. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. plans to boost weapons sales to Taiwan beyond levels seen during Trump’s first term, aiming to deter growing Chinese military pressure. Officials say upcoming arms approvals could “easily exceed” the $18.3 billion sold under Trump’s earlier administration. Washington is also urging Taiwan’s opposition not to resist the government’s push to raise defence spending

EUR/USD 1.1500 (EUR 1.10bn) 1.1475 (EUR 979mn) 1.1340 (EUR 810mn) 1.1250 (EUR 974mn) USD/JPY 143.00 (US$ 3.30bn) 140.00 (US$ 2.38bn) GBP/USD 1.3455 (GBP 390mn) USD/CHF 0.8325 (CHF 448mn) 0.8225 (CHF 480mn) 0.8140 (CHF 450mn) USD/CAD 1.4500 (US$ 1.44bn) 1.3980 (US$ 786mn) 1.3900 (US$ 799mn) 1.3780 (US$ 619mn) AUD/USD 0.6600 (AUD 477mn) 0.6500 (AUD 598mn) 0.6400

Trump is posting to his own social media app. It’s a long post, the longest I’ve seen from him (I don’t read them all though). He’s complaining about the judges ruling against his tariffs. The ruling has been put aside, his tariffs are still in place, while the matter is heard on appeal. This is

Prior +2.2% CPI (HICP) M/M -0.1% vs +0.0% expected Prior +0.6% Core CPI Y/Y +2.1% vs +2.4% prior Slight miss. This development is mainly due to the decrease in leisure and culture prices, compared with the rise in May 2024. Also influential, although to a lesser extent, was the fall in transport, which was greater

U.S. Treasury’s Bessent: The president has the right to set the trade agenda for the U.S. – Fox News interview Trading partners are coming to us in good faith, have seen no change in their attitudes in the past 48 hours A couple of large deals are close May have a call between Trump and

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and participates in moderated conversation before the Greater Waco Member Appreciation event Risks to employment, inflation goals ‘roughly balanced’ For now, monetary policy is in a good place Could take ‘quite some time’ to see shift in balance of risks If balance shifts, Fed

Hassett with more baloney. Expect trade deals in next week or two Have been briefed on three that are about to happen Had productive talks with India This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve speakers Friday include Bostic, Daly, and Goolsbee RBNZ assistant governor Silk: Interest rates are in 2.5% – 3.5% neutral band US plans to ramp up weapons sales to Taiwan – exceeding Trump’s first term US plan for Gaza ceasefire to be guaranteed by Trump China expected to announce ‘major financial polices’ on June

Hasset says expects trade deals in the next week or tow Dell beats on revenue as AI server demand surges, but EPS misses Tech Stocks move higher. U.S. major indices close higher. Nvidia rises after earnings Fed’s Daly says workers are worried about inflation Reuters: US appeal court reinstates Trump tariffs during appeal temporarily U.S.

Prior +3.6% Loans to households Y/Y +1.9% vs +1.7% prior Loans to companies Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.3% prior This is not a market moving release. The money supply growth should have been expected given the ECB easing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.0% CPI (HICP) M/M +0.1% vs +0.0% expected Prior +0.4% The data is in line with expectations and won’t change the ECB plans for the time being. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan April industrial production -0.9% m/m expected –1.4%, prior +0.2% +0.7% y/y expected +0.1%, prior +1.0% Forecast 1 month ahead (ie May) is +9% m/m and for 2 months ahead (June) is -3.4% m/m — The most focus is on the rising inflation data in Japan: Tokyo May 2025 headline CPI +3.4% y/y (3.4% expected)

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba spoke with Trump on Thursday: said that the two exchanged views on tariff issues said the talks were “meaningful” deepened understanding of each other’s views This was the second call this month for the two. A fourth round of tariff negotiations between Japan and the US kicks off today. This article

A proposed U.S. plan for Gaza outlines a 60-day ceasefire, beginning with the release of 28 Israeli hostages — both living and deceased — in the first week. The remaining hostages would be freed following a move toward a permanent ceasefire. In return, Israel would release 125 Palestinians serving life sentences, 1,111 others detained after

Costco and Dell will report earnings after the close: Earnings Preview: Costco and Dell Costco (COST) EPS estimate: $4.24 vs. $3.78 last year (+12.2% YoY) Revenue estimate: $63.13B vs. $58.52B last year (+7.9% YoY) Shares of Costco are trading up 9.97% in 2025 outpacing the market Dell Technologies (DELL) EPS estimate: $1.70 vs. $1.27 last

Reserve Bank of New Zealand assistant governor Silk: more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 97.1 This is an indicator that measures business confidence. We’ve seen a notable dip in April as expected due to Trump’s April 2 tariffs but it’s now bouncing as things continue to de-escalate. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Daly: Two rate cuts this year would make sense if labor market stays solid and inflation falls, but range of possible risks is large Currently tilt toward a focus on inflation Need modestly or moderately restrictive policy to keep bringing down inflation Looking for signs inflation

China and Japan have agreed on steps to resume Japanese seafood imports, according to the Nikkei, signaling a potential end to China’s 2023 trade ban. Japan will register seafood processing facilities with China and include inspection certificates confirming no radioactive contamination. The deal follows efforts to ease tensions after Japan’s release of treated Fukushima wastewater.

Prior -0.2% (revised to 0.9%) Retail sales Y/Y 2.3% vs 1.8% expected Prior 2.2% (revised to 3.3%) German retail sales fell in May but we had some big positive revisions to the prior readings. Retail sales data is volatile so it’s generally a non market moving release. The data certainly won’t change anything for the

Australian April building permits % m/m expected +3.1%, prior -8.8% % y/y prior +13.4% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan govt official on factory output: Several companies in production machinery industry say U.S. tariffs caused delaying shipment of products in April – The official was referencing the poor data earlier: Japan April industrial production -0.9% m/m (expected -1.4%) While down on the month it wasn’t down as much as expected. This article was written

New Zealand building consents fell a seasonally adjusted 15.6% m/m in April +10.7% prior For the y/y, down 17.4% (vs. prior +15.9%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent : China talks are a bit stalled Believes will have more talks within a few weeks Bessent is trying to put lipstick on a pig. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Securities Times cite analysts suggesting the PBoC may increase Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL). China’s Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) facility was established in 2014. The PSL is a monetary policy tool used by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to provide low-cost, long-term funding to policy banks. These banks then support government-prioritized sectors. In the

Australia Private Sector Credit April 2025 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

0830 GMT/0430 US Eastern time – Fabio Panetta, Bank of Italy’s governor and member of the European Central Bank’s governing council, delivers key speech at the annual gathering of the Italian central bank This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come Tokyo CPI +3.4% y/y expected 3.4%, prior +3.5% CPI excluding fresh food 3.6% y/y expected 3.5%, prior 3.4% CPY excluding fresh food & energy +3.3% y/y expected %, prior % This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Russia paid Iran with 1.8 tons of gold — valued at around $104 million — for Shahed-136 drones, according to U.S. analysts at C4ADS, as reported by The Washington Post. The payment was outlined in a March 2023 contract, with gold priced at $58.32 per gram. A second deal for over 2 tons of gold

A US appeals court has reinstated US president Trumps tariffs during appeal temporarily. The keyword is “temporarily”. I would assume that is for a formal appeal to take place, but cannot be too sure. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda We are aware firms’ aggressive price-, wage-setting behaviour continuing Board’s downgrade in inflation forecasts reflect pressure on global growth from trade policy uncertainty, slowing pace of cost-push inflation and recent sharp falls in crude oil prices — Given the sticky, and rising, Tokyo area inflation Ueda and the Bank of

Bank of England Governor Bailey: Challenge we have at the moment is that we don’t know what outcome of trade situation will be We take gradual and careful approach as economy is hard to read Spend a lot of time looking at risks from market fragilities, including bonds This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

It’s a packed data agenda ahead. As background to the Tokyo area inflation data: National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data. Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI It measures the change in prices of goods and services

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg had the report, gated. In brief: Japanese life insurers cut protection for their foreign assets against a stronger yen to a fresh 14-year low Signaling subdued expectations of a sustained rally in yen Nine of Japan’s biggest life insurers collectively lowered bullish yen wagers tied to their foreign investment holdings to 44.4% at the

An item from overnight ICYMI: Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said oil prices above $70–$75 per barrel are broadly acceptable, dismissing criticism over the country’s OPEC+ quota breaches. argued Kazakhstan’s share of global oil output is small — under 2% — and shouldn’t skew the broader group’s production dynamics. Akkenzhenov blamed U.S. tariff policy for adding volatility

Dell Technologies reported its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings, revealing a mixed set of results as booming demand for AI-optimized servers lifted revenue above expectations, while earnings per share came in below consensus. Q1 2025 Results: Adjusted EPS: $1.55 (missed vs. $1.69 estimate) Revenue: $23.38 billion (beat vs. $23.14 billion estimate) Dell highlighted $12.1 billion in

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Labor market in solid shape Workers are worried about inflation Won’t get to 2% inflation this year Really making progress on inflation Fed is resolute to get job on inflation done Bond yields show markets trying to process uncertainty about policy and economy Fed

Crude oil futures settle at $60.94. That is down $0.90 or -1.46%. The high price reached $63.04. The low price was at $60.57 the price is closing below it’s 100 and 200 hour moving averages. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The headline is here: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect USD taken hiugher in response, safe haven (JPY, CHF) the big losers: USD higher after US court says Trump doesn’t have ‘Liberation Day’ tariff authority In brief: The decision halts implementation of both the 10% baseline tariff and

White House is also reporting that Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer have been in touch with counterparts on tariffs after court ruling. They will win the trade battle in court. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY is stretching to a new low and in the process has started to run into the cluster of moving averages defined by the 100-hour moving average at 143.85, the 200-bar moving average on the four-hour chart 143.87 and the 200-hour moving average at 143.934. The low price of just reached 143.959 just short

Fed’s Kugler did not comment on economic, monetary policy outlook. He DID say: Watching to better understand link between trade and market vulnerability Monitoring shifts in possible lower demand for U.S. assets Need to better understand U.S. assets’ safe haven status “Keenly interested” in connections between economy and commercial real estate This article was written

Axios Ravid is x-ing on comments from Israeli Netanyahu and potential issues: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude drawdown -2.795M vs est build of 0.118M Gasoline drawdown -2.441M vs estimated drawdown of -0.527M Distillates drawdown -0.724M vs estimate of build of 0.481M Cushing build of 0.075M vs est of drawdown of -0.457M This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House is saying: Israel signed off on cease-fire proposal Discussions are continuing Hamas is not accepted it yet Countries intend to continue trade talks despite ruling deeming Liberation Day tariffs void US trade policy will continue The Pres. has other authorities for tariffs On Russian and Ukraine: Hopes they meet for direct talks next

Major US stock indices close lower ahead of Nvidia earnings Economic calendar Asia Thursday, May 29, 2025, more from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Trump orders US chip designers to stop selling to China Iran denies report of temporarily suspending nuclear enrichment US crude oil futures settle at $61.84 FOMC minutes May 2025: Fed

MUFG on the developments in long JGBs (ICYMI, on Tuesday Japanese yields fell sharply on reports that Japan could tweak its bond issuance plans, while on Wednesday a very weak JGB 40 year auction took a toll again) we doubt the BOJ is close to any shift in stance international factors will continue to lend

If court ruling on tariff leads to further extension of uncertainty, that would be more negative Administration could use other justifications to impose tariffs. This court ruling may extend out uncertainty This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar gains abate as traders digest what’s next for Trump tariffs Cheatsheet on how Trump could sidestep the US court ruling and implement tariffs – MUFG India trade minister official says trade talks with US are progressing well China reaffirms having maintained communications with US since Geneva talks Japan prime minister Ishiba reportedly arranging

Bloomberg is reporting that the US (I assume the Trump administration) may ask the Supreme Court on Friday to keep the tariffs intact. Meanwhile, as European traders look to exit, the Dow has turned negative with the index now down -114.5 or -0.27% at 41982. The S&P is up marginally by 5.55 points or 0.09%.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The FT is reporting: Germany is reportedly buying a 10% digital tax on global tech giants like Meta and Google. German Chancellor Merz’s coalition agreed to evaluate a tax on Internet platforms in its treaty signed in early May. The proceeds would be used to strengthen the country’s media landscape. Is that a tariff on

Instead of questioning the ruling a Trump official is attacking the court instead. If this is the best the US admin can do its a pathetic response. Miller: The judicial coup is out of control Stephen Miller is Trump’s deputy chief of staff. — The news so far: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation

Canada PM Carney, has stuck his toe in the Trump water, by saying that Canada is still being hit by unjustified US tariffs on steel and autos. You never know what the reaction may be. The USDCAD is lower on the day, but has seen a modest rebound off the lows. Looking at the hourly

High yield 4.194% Wi level at the time of the auction 4.216% Tail -2.2 basis points. The six month average -0.8 basis points Bid to cover 2.69X. The six month average 2.64X Direct 23.64% versus the six month average of 21.4% Indirects 71.52% vs the six month average of 67.6%. Dealers 4.85% vs six month

For some background, this relates to his alleged offence back when he was finance minister during 2012 to 2019. He is said to have delivered a €48,000 bribe to the tax administration to influence tax proceedings. Kazimir was found guilty back in 2023 and fined €100,000 initially but has appealed the decision. And now with

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 level. That doesn’t tie to any technical significance but it could act as a bit of a floor as traders try to digest what the court block on Trump’s tariffs would mean moving

Powell did not discuss expectations from monetary policy Powell said his policy will depend on incoming economic information The full statement from the Fed on the meeting. May 29, 2025 Statement on Chair Powell’s meeting with the President For immediate release At the President’s invitation, Chair Powell met with the President today at the White

The USDCAD is under pressure, weighed down by a combination of softer U.S. economic data and a court ruling that favors the Canadian dollar. Earlier today, weaker-than-expected U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims raised concerns about the labor market, prompting a drop in U.S. yields. The move lower in yields has reduced demand for the

A 2nd US court blocks Trump tariffs in case filed by toy company Pusing tariff order for 14 days. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD moved higher on the court decision that the Trump Liberation Day tariffs were unconstitutional. However,, after the market digested, the gains were reversed and the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD are all trading little changed. What are the technicals now saying after the dollares move higher and back

China and US have used multilateral, bilateral occasions to maintain communications at various levels Focused on US export controls abuse in semiconductors sector Very concerned by EU tire anti-dumping probe Will defend legitimate rights, interests of Chinese firms Well, they’d be pleased by the latest court decision on the reciprocal tariffs. But again, sectoral tariffs

Prior estimate -0.3% GDP 2nd revision -0.2% versus -0.3% expected GDP deflator 3.7% versus 3.7% expected and 3.7% preliminary Core AC prices 3.4% versus 3.5% estimate and 3.5% preliminary PCE prices preliminary 3.6% versus 3.6% preliminary PCE ex food, energy and Housing 3.3% versus 3.4% preliminary PCE ex energy and housing 4.1% vs 4.2% preliminary

Gold Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (May 29, 2025) tradeCompass Summary for Gold Futures Traders Gold Futures (GC) is currently trading around $3,292.5. Today’s session introduces a contract rollover, as the active front-month contract transitions from GCM2025 (June) to GCQ2025 (August). This shift matters for futures traders—especially those using continuous charts—since liquidity, volume, and

ECB poll: All 81 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to cut deposit rate to 2% on June 5. ECB to pause in July according to 71% of the economists note majority among economists for timing of next ECB deposit rate cut after June, but at least one more expected. Eurozone economy to grow

FBS, a leading global broker, proudly announces a significant achievement — the title of Best Trading Conditions 2025, awarded by Trust Finance. With over 16 years in the market, FBS has built a reputation for combining exceptional tools with a seamless trading experience. The company’s mission is: empower every trader with everything they need for

There is merit in seeking to increase the openness of our financial markets by reducing non-tariff barriers. Our jobs as central bankers are much harder if we place more inflexible and uncertain supply-side conditions in our economies Hope to see cooperation between Britain and EU central banks can continue as seek to build more resume

Judges’ decision on tariffs will be overturned Trump administration has different options on tariffs Tariff ruling will not affect ongoing trade deals Still expects more trade deals in the coming weeks Three trade deals are basically done, ready for Trump decision as of last week You wouldn’t expect anything less as Trump will go down

In an eventful trading day, the US stock market showcased a tapestry of performances, with notable highlights in the aerospace sector, financial shifts, and tech fluctuations. Here’s an in-depth snapshot of today’s market dynamics drawn from the latest stock market heatmap. 🚀 Aerospace Takes Off The aerospace & defense sector is the standout performer today,

Fed’s Goolsbee is out saying: If tariffs are avoided by a dealer or otherwise, could return to a situation where rates can come down. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +6.1% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG has made a great cheatsheet on the range of possible acts that Trump could use to implement tariffs and sidestep the US court ruling. The ruling is of course not the end of the tariffs saga. It just adds more uncertainty and volatility. I think it would been better to let things play out

Japan economy minister Akazawa: National security and trade policies are different matters, cannot be negotiated as one Our basic position is to strongly request review of tariff policy — No comment relevant to this from Akazawa so far: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect USD higher after US

The USDCHF tumbled sharply today, breaking decisively lower as U.S. dollar sentiment was hit hard by a combination of weaker-than-expected jobless claims, lower GDP and a federal court ruling blocking Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs (even though it might be temporary). The twin blows undermined the USD across the board, driving risk flows to the downside

U.S. pauses exports of jet engine technology and chip software to China – New York Times Add to this earlier: Trump orders US chip designers to stop selling to China This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

India trade minister official says trade talks with US are progressing well and that he expects a good outcome soon. We’ve been waiting for a trade deal with India for several weeks as it’s been said to be the first one to come. There was chatter about a delay because of the conflict with Pakistan.

Leading up to the session, USD/JPY traded back up towards 146.00 before gradually slipping back to around 145.20 levels on the day. The pair is still up some 0.3% today but the gains are nothing to really shout about compared to earlier. The same goes for EUR/USD, which traded down to 1.1210 at the lows

WH economic advisor Peter Navarro on Bloomberg: There is no question, this is an economic emergency Nothing much has changed due to the trade ruling Initial measures on China were targeted on Fentanyl imports What the US has done already is perfectly appropriate USTR Greer will clarify potential administrative actions during the appeal of the

GS argument: I’m no tariff law expert (but have noted how quickly many on Twitter have gained such qualifications 😉 ) so I can only assume GS is on solid ground here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Musk announced this earlier: Musk has officially thrown in the towel on his government job White House confirmed, an official said: “off-boarding will begin tonight” Some reports are noting: Musk’s departure was quick and unceremonious Musk did not have a formal conversation with Trump before announcing his departure he leaves a day after criticizing Trump’s

Trump’s message via social media: Doesn’t look like a TACO at this stage. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 227K (revised to 226K) Continuing claims 1919K vs 1894K expected Prior 1903K (revised to 1893K) Nothing worrying here as the data continues to show a steady labour market. The continuing claims data pertains to the NFP survey week and it just made a new cycle high. That could translate into an uptick in

The Initial Jobless Claims (week ending May 24, 2025) rose to 240,000, up from 227,000 the previous week, exceeding estimates of 230,000. This suggests a slight uptick in layoffs. Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending May 17, 2025) also moved higher:to 1.919 million, up from 1.903 million, above estimates of 1.893 million, indicating more people are

Global fintech solutions provider B2BROKER has named Moustapha Abdel Sater as its new Chief Commercial Officer (CCO). The appointment is aimed at accelerating the company’s global commercial strategy and expanding its market presence, as stated in the official press release. Sater brings over 14 years of international experience from major technology firms, including Salesforce, LinkedIn,

This was market-moving error from NVIDIA. These things happen, if you’ve been trading long enough you’ll have seen plenty. All news wires reported Q1 EPS at 81c, as announced by NVDA. expected was 93c BUT, the actual result was 96c, a decent beat. I grabbed a screenshot of the initial announcement and here it is

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That will translate to the morning time in the US. The report adds that tariffs will likely be the discussion point of the call. As Trump’s reciprocal tariffs hit a snag, the discussion will be an interesting one as Japan is still one of those more heavily hit from sectoral tariffs. For some background, Akazawa

NVIDIA NVIDIA 1Q ADJ EPS 81C, EST. 93C … miss … wow, an error in the announcement, EPS is 96c not 81! That’s a major F*** up with the wrong announcement! NVIDIA 1Q REV. $44.1B, EST. $43.29B … beat NVIDIA 1Q DATA CENTER REVENUE $39.1B, EST. $39.22B NVIDIA 1Q ADJ GROSS MARGIN 61%, EST. 71%

Fundamental Overview The latest move lower in gold came overnight as a US Federal Court blocked Trump’s tariffs from going into effect. This lifted risk assets and the US Dollar as the first reaction was to expect even stronger growth ahead, but Trump has many ways to appeal the decision, so it’s not the end.

Private New Capital Expenditure -0.1% q/q expected +0.5%, prior -0.2% Building Capital Expenditure +0.9% q/q prior +0.2% Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure -1.3% q/q prior -0.8% — Estimate #2 for Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2025-26 155.9bn prior 148.0bn Estimate #6 for Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2024-25 187.6bn prior 183.4bn — This article was written by

Germany’s Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil announced an almost a 50% increase vs the previous year: to invest 110B euros in 2025 intent is to revive the country’s sluggish economy planned measures are proposals to lower energy prices for industrial companies and the introduction of special tax depreciation options for firms that invest

No talk of exchange rate target with Bessent G7 finance ministers saw positive signs in tariff talks Just some token remarks really. As things stand, Akazawa is on his way to Washington for talks today and tomorrow. So, let’s see how that will pan out. Even though Trump’s reciprocal tariffs might have hit a snag,

New Zealand ANZ Business Survey for May 2025. Business Confidence 36.6 prior 49.3 Activity Outlook 34.8 prior 47.7 more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s the news as it broke: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect This is potentially big news. Trump is not going to like this and I suspect he’ll do whatever he can to ignore the ruling/get around it. Note, Trump can appeal this ruling. Markets responding to the

RBNZ assistant governor Silk: China’s low domestic consumption is a key issue for us in an increasing tariff environment Reserve Bank of New Zealand officials are appearing in parliament, earlier: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Hawkesby sees near term growth headwinds Yesterday the Bank cut its cash rate again, and provided cautious guidance: RBNZ

NVIDIA Earnings Ignites Markets: Post-Earnings Surge Lifts Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Ethereum NVIDIA’s blowout earnings reaction has sparked a powerful move across markets overnight, putting bulls firmly in control at Thursday’s open. After reporting earnings last night, NVIDIA stock surged as much as 5.8% in after-hours trading, before cooling slightly and settling at +4.8% above

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Spanish Retail Sales and Italian Business Confidence data. These are not market moving releases and won’t influence interest rate expectations. In the American session, we have the 2nd estimate of the US Q1 GDP

This data is a day later than usual this week due to the holiday Monday in the US. Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1mn barrels Distillates +1.3mn bbls Gasoline -0.5 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of

Eurostoxx +0.7% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +1.0% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% The cautious optimism holds as we look to get things underway on the session. In FX, we have seen the dollar give back a chunk of its gains though. That as traders are still largely digesting

The times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 1230/0830 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in a fireside chat before the Housing Partnership Network 1440/1040 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Mackinac Policy Conference hosted by the Detroit Regional Chamber, in Mackinac

We have proposed talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on 2 June But yet to have an answer from Kyiv Not constructive to claim that Russia is delaying the process The main thing right now is to continue direct talks with each other This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD got a boost across the board tonight after a US Federal Court ruled against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs from going into effect. The first reaction was of course expecting even better growth ahead with the tax cuts, deregulation and so on, but this is not a permanent thing. The Trump administration has already appealed

Musk: As my scheduled time as a special government employee comes to an end, I would like to thank President Trump for the opportunity A respectful exit from Musk. He’s been disappointed that what little he achieved at DOGE has been burned away by the one big bootiful bill that ramps debt higher. Musk has

German DAX futures +1.0% French CAC 40 futures +1.1% UK FTSE futures +0.7% This comes after the US Court of International Trade blocked Trump’s reciprocal tariffs overnight, leaving for some entanglement on what might come next. Trump will most certainly appeal this and get it all fast tracked but it remains to be seen if

US Secretary of State Rubio US will begin revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields. Will also revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong This article was written by Eamonn

The closure will be in observance of Ascension Day and applies to Germany, France, and Switzerland among other countries. So, there will be a bank holiday observed there. However, the Xetra and Frankfurt Stock Exchange will be open for trading as per usual. But the Euronext will be closed for the entire day. So, just

Will continue demanding US to reconsider tariff measures Want to meet with Bessent this time Will conduct ministerial talks on trade expansion, economic security cooperation Aware of US court decision to block Trump tariffs Will examine the details and potential impact on Japan While the block on reciprocal tariffs – if upheld – is a

Here’s the news and the impact: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect USD higher after US court says Trump doesn’t have ‘Liberation Day’ tariff authority Trump’s tariffs blocked – what we know The US dollar is continuing to rocket higher on the tariff-block news The latest is: Trump

The USD gained across the board on the news that a US Federal court has blocked most of Trump tariffs. ICYMI: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect USD higher after US court says Trump doesn’t have ‘Liberation Day’ tariff authority Trump’s tariffs blocked – what we know The

Bank of Korea cuts its base interest rate by 25bp, as expected. Cut to 2.5% from 2.75% Sees 2025 South Korea inflation at 1.9% 2025 GDP growth at 0.8% 2026 GDP growth at 1.6% 2026 inflation at 1.8% Bank of Korea Governor Rhee news confrence will commence around 0210 GMT (2210 US Eastern time) This

It’s never a week without Trump drama since he took over the presidency, eh? And things are continuing today after the US Court of International Trade decided to block Trump’s reciprocal tariffs as seen here. There’s a lot of chaos and confusion now as to how legitimate that ruling can be. As a reminder, the

Trump administration files notice of appeal after to federal court blocks tariffs The appeal is in response to: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect USD higher after US court says Trump doesn’t have ‘Liberation Day’ tariff authority Trump’s tariffs blocked – what we know The US dollar is

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Hawkesby: See near term growth headwinds There’s weaker demand and weaker inflation pressures than there were in February There are a lot of different ways that this could play out from here There is uncertinaty around where those tariffs will land, they could be very different Reserve Bank of

A U.S. federal court on Wednesday blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect. The United States Court of International Trade is a U.S. federal court that adjudicates civil actions arising out of U.S. customs and international trade. ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board taxes on imports from nations that sell

The UK’s Financial Times is reporting that Pres. Trump is ordering US chip designers to stop selling to China. Shares of Nvidia are still trading up $1.17 or 0.88% at $136.78 ahead of the earnings to be released after the close. Shares of AMD are down one dollar at $113.56 (-0.86%). Broadcom shares are trading

Court blocks the bulk of Trump’s tariffs (read from the bottom up for the chronology) Goldman Sachs says Trump can sidestep the court ruling against his tariffs Trump appears unlikely to back down, says he is on a “Mission from God” Trump has appealed against the court ruling blocking tariffs Trump has a number of

Here’s the post with the results for Q1 2025 for Nvidia: Nvidia (NVDA) Q1 EPS 96 (93c expected) Revenue $44.1bn (exp 43.28bn) The announcement was not without controversy, if it was a TV show it’d hit the top of the ratings! There has been a MASSIVE error in the Nvidia Q1 earnings announcement – shock

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut this week, lowering the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.25%—bringing the total reduction in the current easing cycle to 225 basis points. In a note to clients, economists at Wells Fargo said the move reflects a mix of softening price

Fox with the report ICYMI, citing Austrian officials contradicting the assessment of the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Austria’s version of the FBI — the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution — wrote Monday in an intelligence report, “In order to assert and enforce its regional political power ambitions,

Nvidia earnings from earlier, the announcement was quite the mess! Nvidia (NVDA) Q1 EPS 96 (93c expected) Revenue $44.1bn (exp 43.28bn) There has been a MASSIVE error in the Nvidia Q1 earnings announcement – shock for markets “Nvidia’s business is still booming, even with the company effectively shut out of China” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang,

The news: A US federal court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs from going into effect USD higher after US court says Trump doesn’t have ‘Liberation Day’ tariff authority Trump’s tariffs blocked – what we know USD/JPY is up more than a big figure, highs hit circa 146.00. USD/CHF is up around 70 points. EUR/USD is

NVIDIA will release its earnings after the market closes. Below are the expectations:. Revenue: Analysts forecasted revenue of approximately $43.3 billion, a 65% increase year-over-year ($26.04B), driven primarily by the data center segment (AI chips), expected to contribute ~$39.4 billion. NVIDIA’s guidance from the prior quarter projected $43 billion (±2%). The company has a history

The major US indices are closing lower ahead of Nvidia earnings. The declines are consistent across the major indices near -0.5% to -0.6%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow Industrial average -244.95 points or -0.58% at 42098.70. S&P index fell -32.99 points or -0.56% at 5888.55 Nasdaq fell -98.22 points or -0.51% at

The USDJPY began the U.S. session trading between two key technical levels: the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 144.77 and the 200-hour moving average at 143.97. Both buyers and sellers initially leaned against these levels, leading to a period of consolidation. During the session, the pair broke above the 100-bar MA at

From 2000 GMT, 1600 US Eastern time Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby to speak in front of a parliamentary committee. This is after the RBNZ cut its cash rate yesterday, provided guidance of more to come, but comments from Hawkesy were not so clear cut on more cuts ahead. RBNZ Gov.

Iran is now out denying in earlier Reuters report that they would temporarily suspend nuclear enrichment with the understanding that the US would allow it for civilian uses. So much for that. Trump earlier today said that negotiations with Iran were moving along and that a deal could be made within the next several weeks

Crude oil futures are settling at $61.94. That’s up $0.95 or 1.56%. Later today, the private inventory data will be released. Tomorrow the EIA weekly data will announce their inventory changes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The details from the OPEC+ meeting: OPEC reaffirms the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC as agreed in the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting until 31 December 2026 OPEC+ has agreed to use 2025 oil output levels for 2027 baseline, source says OPEC+ to mandate

Well positioned to wait for more clarity on inflation/economy Participants agreed that uncertainty about the outlook had increased and it was appropriate to take a cautious approach to monetary policy Participants agreed that risk of higher inflation and higher unemployment had risen Participants at the May 6–7 meeting agreed they were well positioned to wait

A summary of the FOMC statement Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace despite fluctuations in net exports. Unemployment rate remains low and labor market conditions are stable. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee aims for maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long term. Economic outlook uncertainty has increased, with heightened risks

Cannot tell if Putin wants to end the war Will find out soon Will respond differently if Putin playing us Will take about a week to find out Disappointed in what happened in Ukraine My words on Russia speak loudly Doing well with Iran, Gaza Parties in Gaza still have to agree to document On

Mixed Signals in Tech: Energy Sector Struggles, Industrials Rise The U.S. stock market presents a mixed bag today, with notable fluctuations across different sectors. While technology stocks show uneven performance, the industrial sector has emerged as today’s standout performer. Let’s delve into the key movements shaping the current trading landscape. 📈 Sector Overview Technology: Today’s

The USD vs the 3 major currency pairs has seen up and down price action leaving the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD modestly changed vs the closing levels from yesterday. Looking at the BIG 3, the EURUSD is down -0.09%, the USDJPY is up 0.07% and the GBPUSD is down -0.18% as I type. In between

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and Japan finance minister Kato comments here: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says tariff negotiations means outlook remains uncertain Japan finance minister Kato – Will closely monitor bond market situations The dribble lower for USD/JPY matched up with the timing but I don’t see too much of note in the

Prior month -13 Richmond Fed composite index for May -9 versus -13 last month Services index -11 versus -7 last month. Manufacturing shipments -10 versus -17 last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran may agree to pause nuclear enrichment work temporarily, if US recognizes Tehran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian uses. Temporary halt to nuclear activity under a political agreement would also require US to release frozen Iranian funds. The price of crude oil came off highs which peaked at $62.50 and was trading near $62.34

The EU is saying: European Union and the United Arab Emirates have formally launched negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement, opening the possibility of the first comprehensive EU trade deal in the Gulf region The work is set to start next week. UAE minister says: Bilateral negotiations between UAE and EU not a hurdle

Starting Forex trading without risking too much money is the smartest move for most beginners. That’s where micro accounts come in. They let you trade with as little as $1 per position, so you can test strategies, learn from real price movements and manage risk with more control. Many traders lose big early because they

Japan finance minister Kato – Will closely monitor bond market situations Yesterday we had a sign Japan is going to take some action on the yield elevation for Japanese Government Bonds: ICYMI Japan is to consider trimming super-long bond issuance – Reuters This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new market analysis examining how the recent trade truce between the US and China may affect Bitcoin’s short- and long-term performance. The two countries have agreed on a 90-day pause in their trade war, cutting tariffs from 125% to 10%. While some restrictions remain, this step has

ECBs Villeroy says: Does not see inflation picking up in Europe The EURUSD in the NA session has seen a move below the 200-hour MA at 1.13038 currently (green line on the chart above. The break comes after the pair ping-ponged between the 100-hour MA above (blue line) at 1.13436, and the 200-hour MA below

ECBs Knot: Near term growth and inflation risk talk to the downside. Medium-term inflation outlook is more ambiguous Nothing new with these comments This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

April 2025 monthly inflation CPI data from Australia Comes in at 2.4% y/y expected 2.3%, prior 2.4% Trimmed mean is 2.8% y/y prior 2.7% A small tick higher for monthly inflation in Australia. In my preview earlier, and also down the bottom of this post, I have oputlined all the caveats surrounding this data. Still,

The USDCAD moved higher yesterday, supported by broad-based U.S. dollar strength. In the process, the pair climbed back above its 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.37812. That move marked a shift in short-term momentum, suggesting buyers are regaining some control. Importantly, the price also extended above the 38.2% retracement level of the May decline at

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the sobering report, here are their Key Points: Vladimir Putin’s war successes give him latitude to slow walk peace negotiations. Russia’s economy relies on military industry, making unwinding the war in Ukraine difficult. Neighbors fear Russia’s war economy might refocus on them if the Ukraine war ends. And this:

The major US stock indices are trading little changed ahead of Nvidia and salesforce earnings after the close. Dow industrial average +10.68 points or 0.02% at 42355.93. S&P index up 2.65 points or 0.04% at 5924.01 NASDAQ index up 4.09 points or 0.02% at 19203. Nvidia (NVDA): Shares are trading at $135.44 ahead of its

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is on the wires saying: Welcomes US financial institutions to deepen cooperation with China. Welcomes US financial institutions, long-term capital to paricipate in China’s Capital market Me with Morgan Stanley executive in Beijing This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

High-yield 4.071% WI level at the time of the auction 4.075% Tail -0.4 basis points vs six month average of -0.5 basis points Bid to cover 2.39X vs six month average of 2.4X Directs (measure of domestic demand) 12.4% vs six month average of 20.2% Indirects (measure of international demand) and the 78.4% vs six

A major European indices are closing lower on the day as London/European traders exit: German DAX which closed at a record level yesterday, felt -188.30 points or -0.78% at 24038 .20. France’s CAC fell -38.69 points or -0.49% at 7788.11. UK’s FTSE 100 fell 52.05 points or -0.59% at 8726.01. Spain’s Ibex fell 139.30 points

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1300 level. That could help to keep price action more locked in near the figure level in the session ahead, limiting downside pushes. There is also the 200-hour moving average nearby at

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Giovernor Hawkesby press conference now, following the rate cut earlier today: RBNZ cuts cash rate by 25bp vs. 25bp expected NZD/USD bouncing after the expected RBNZ 25bp cash rate cut Hawkesby: Decision to hold vote on rates was healthy sign, not unusual at turning points Is the RBNZ at a

The RBNZ cut rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but the decision included a formal vote—an uncommon step that revealed one dissenting member favoring no change, while five supported the cut. Governor Hawkesby described the vote as a “healthy sign,” noting that such decisions are typical at potential turning points in policy. He

Bitcoin Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (May 28, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for Bitcoin Futures Traders Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) – Current Price: 109,800 Bullish above: 109,725 Bearish below: 108,825 Primary Bias: Bullish (within range) Partial Targets (Longs): • 110,155 • 110,415 • 111,195 • 111,395 • 112,960 Long-Term Runner (Swing): 117,200 to 119,000 Partial

Details of a 2024 Fed survey on the consumer health showed: In 2024, 73% of Americans said doing OK or comfortable financially, little changed from 2023 Public viewed inflation and prices as the top financial concern in 2024 Perceptions of local, national economies improved in 2024 but were still net negative In 2024, 29% said

A new contender is poised to enter the financial technology arena as YWO (ywo.com) announces its final countdown to a mid-June launch. The company is preparing to introduce a state-of-the-art platform designed to modernize the trading experience for users. YWO aims to simplify trading and build lasting trust through a robust legal and technical framework,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The EU trade commissioner is saying: We are constant conversation with the US Looking at tariff lines and cooperation on fields like aviation, Semiconductor, and steel. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House CEO Miran: Canada is anxious for a trade deal with the US. ON EU, thinks they will come around. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Dallas Fed Services Revenue for May -4.7 vs 3.8 last month Texas Servic Sect Outlook -10.1 vs -19.4 last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF is making a renewed push higher in Wednesday trading after rebounding from the 100-hour moving average (blue line) and holding above it yesterday. Sellers had their opportunity to break the pair lower but failed to sustain momentum, allowing buyers to regain short-term control. The pair has now moved above the 200-hour moving average

Bitcoin has been on a great ride since Trump’s tariff pause announcement back on April 9. We’ve seen the same with the US stock market given that the main macro drivers for both are growth expectations and liquidity. Growth expectations remain positive and the soft data is now showing improvement across the board with the

China’s Premier Li Qiang was speaking at the ASEAN – Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – China Economic Forum official dinner on the sidelines of the 46th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Notably, Li said that fiscal outlays in China will reach a record high this year the government is

The USD has been supported across the board in the first half of the month as the positive news on the trade front triggered a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. Once the market got back in line with the Fed’s baseline of two rate cuts in 2025, the greenback lost that support and

The major US stock indices started the holiday-shortened week with solid gains on the back of risk-on sentiment following the latest tariff US concession on EU tariffs. Recall on Friday, Trump “recommended” 50% tariffs on EU goods starting June 1, as well as 25% tariffs on Apple products not manufactured in the US. That sent

Prior -0.1% The details are less encouraging with household consumption actually falling by 0.2% during the quarter. Overall, that led to domestic demand making a negative contribution of 0.1% in Q1, following a 0.2% positive contribution in Q4 last year. The overall GDP increase was led by inventory changes instead (+1.0%), offset by net foreign

Handelsblatt is reporting citing company sources that: BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen are in talks with US trade minister on tariffs. Aim for an agreement by the start of July Working with US on mechanism to offset imports and exports. Considering investing theories in US as part of hospital tariffs deal The tariff situation used to

Swiss federal council consults on impact of US tariffs, agrees on existing instruments No slump in overall economic development currently expected So far, there’s not too much progress on this front with Switzerland yesterday saying that they are hoping for a result from talks with the US only in early July. This article was written

Fundamental Overview The USD has been supported across the board in the first half of the month as the positive news on the trade front triggered a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. Once the market got back in line with the Fed’s baseline of two rate cuts in 2025, the greenback lost that

The Kremlin is saying that Istanbul may be the next venue for the next Russia/Ukraine talks. Trump has been sending warning shots over the bow, calling Putin crazy and saying that he is “playing with fire” in reaction to the recent bombing of Ukraine. Earlier today, the US State Department spokesman Bruce said the US

Prior -1.0% That marks the sharpest monthly decline in import prices since the Covid pandemic period. That said, the drop is largely driven by a plunge in energy prices which fell by 11.2% on the month. If you strip that out, import prices were down 0.8% compared to March. This article was written by Justin

Australian inflation data for April 2025 is due at 1130 Sydney time: 0130 GMT 2130 US Eastern time This is CPI for the month of April alone and is not viewed as complete or official. Nevertheless, it’s a guide. CBA on what to expect, in breif: We expect a 2.3%/yr outturn, slightly lower than the

Last week, crude oil prices came under renewed pressure as we got the news that OPEC+ was considering another 411K B/D output hike in July. The bearish momentum wasn’t enough though to break below a key support zone around the 60.00 handle as better global growth expectations continue to support the market. This supply and

Japan is reportedly offering to buy up to $6.94 billion worth of U.S. semiconductors as part of ongoing trade negotiations with Washington, according to the Asahi newspaper, which cited an unnamed source. The Japanese government would provide subsidies to domestic firms purchasing chips from U.S. companies like Nvidia, aiming to help reduce the roughly 10

BoJ Governor Ueda: Many tariff negotiations include those between U.S.-Japan still ongoing, so the outlook remains uncertain Also it remains unclear how tariff policies would affect global, Japan economy Will carefully examine data Won’t comment on short-term developments of interest rates Will closely monitor bond market Swings in short-term, medium-term interest rates have bigger impacts

Headlines: Lagarde reportedly has discussed cutting short ECB stint to head WEF ECB reaffirms that Lagarde is determined to complete her term at the central bank Swiss government says further development on tariffs is still uncertain Japan autos facing big impact from US tariffs, says Akazawa Euro area consumers see higher near-term inflation expectations –

As things stand, Japan is still wanting to push for the removal of all tariffs. In particular of course are the ones on autos, as seen with the image below. Akazawa will be leaving to Washington tomorrow and is scheduled to meet with Bessent on Friday for ministerial-level talks. So, we’ll see what comes of

Inflation expectations for the next 12 months nudged a little higher to 3.1%. And as seen from the trend above, it has been rising since the start of the year. The good news at least is that longer-term, inflation expectations are more anchored. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal (gated): U.S. to Grant Chevron License to Preserve Oil Assets in Venezuela Company would be able to maintain key infrastructure but be barred from importing oil from the South American country This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -5.1% Market index 235.7 vs 238.5 prior Purchase index 162.1 vs 157.8 prior Refinance index 634.1 vs 682.5 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.98% vs 6.92% prior The slight drop in mortgage applications in the past week is led by a decline in refinancing activity, partially offset by higher purchase activity. But with rates still

Well, things are certainly heating up here just like a typical transfer window in football. From moments ago: Lagarde reportedly has discussed cutting short ECB stint to head WEF Lagarde’s term is due to end in October 2027 and the report suggests she may vacate the post in favour of heading the WEF during early

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments from earlier today can be found here: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says tariff negotiations means outlook remains uncertainan Reuters have a bit of recap up now, focusing on ueda’s comments on Japanese Government Bonds: Shorter rates affects growth more than super-long yields Large swings in super-long yields could

RBNZ Gov. Hawkesby says decision to hold a rate vote was a healthy sign Recap: BoJ Ueda says Bank on alert to impact of super-long yield swings on borrowing costs BOJ likely to keep cutting bond purchases, says BofA NZD/USD bouncing after the expected RBNZ 25bp cash rate cut China MofCom offers strong opportunities to

According to Schwab, arrangements have been made for Lagarde to take over the WEF before the end of her tenure at the ECB – which is due in October 2027. Schwab also adds that Lagarde has been part of this plan that the both had discussed for “several years” now with the latest conversation taking

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.1% The DAX continues to outperform among major European indices, closing at a record high yesterday. So, the mild drop today doesn’t take away from that too much. US futures are also more tentative on the day, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% currently. All eyes will be

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Via Trump’s social media app: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s going to be a pretty boring day on the data front as we have only low tier releases that won’t influence expectations. In the European session, we have the final French Q1 GDP, and as all the GDP releases, the market won’t care much about it because it’s old news. In the American session,

Eurostoxx flat Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE +0.1% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% The changes are light after the better showing yesterday, with US stocks also closing near the highs. The overall mood is looking more tentative with US futures not doing much today as well. S&P 500 futures

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

, This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 4k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% German unemployment was seen a little higher than expected in May but the jobless rate remains unchanged compared to April at least. The labour office noted that “the market is not getting the tailwind it needs for a trend reversal”. Adding that they expect unemployment

Bank of America analysts expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to continue scaling back its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), according to a recent research note. The central bank is anticipated to provide an interim update on its JGB tapering strategy at its next policy meeting on June 16–17. BofA projects the BOJ will

Trump floated the idea last week: Trump says seriously considering bringing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, public He’s still pumping the idea, this via his social media app: *** Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) are U.S. government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that play a central role in the housing

Fundamental Overview The USD has been supported across the board in the first half of the month as the positive news on the trade front triggered a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. Once the market got back in line with the Fed’s baseline of two rate cuts in 2025, the greenback lost that

Crude oil futures are settling at $60.89 down -$0.64 or -1.04%. Technically, the price attempted multiple times to break above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, but each effort lacked follow-through, and upside momentum quickly faded. The failure to hold above those key resistance levels led to a pullback, with price falling to a

The Nikkei is forecast to rise to 39,600 by the end of 2025, down from a February forecast of 42,500. This info via a Reuters poll. Analysts expect U.S. trade policy uncertainty, especially Trump’s tariff threats, to ease in the coming months, allowing markets to refocus on fundamentals like a weak yen and strong earnings.

Standard Chartered has trimmed its gold stance to a “core holding,” anticipating a near-term consolidation in prices after this year’s sharp rally. In a note to clients, the bank said it expects gold to approach USD 3,100 per ounce over the next one to three months, reflecting a familiar pattern of pause following strong gains.

South Korea foreign exchange market to close June 3 for presidential election. Note for the diary. This’ll thin out trading that day. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via National Australia Bank, the see less easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia: continue to see the need for the RBA to return the cash rate to a neutral stance over coming months but have lifted our terminal rate expectation to 3.1% (from 2.6%) the lift is in recognition of a more modest offshore

Data on Tuesday from the US showed a solid jump for consumer sentiment: US consumer confidence for May 98.0 versus 87.0 estimate. But will that translate into spending? Barclays are wary, outlining in a note: policy-related headwinds look set to gradually intensify in the coming months we expect consumer spending to continue to decelerate in

Australian Q1 2025 Construction Work Done 0.0% q/q, not a good result, well under expected and well under the previous quarter expected +0.4%, prior +0.5% more to come *** Construction work done includes building work (residential and non – residential) and engineering work. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy interest rate cut for May 2025, 25bp as expected. Takes the cash rate to 3.25%, from 3.5%. The Bank has cut its path ahead also: RBNZ sees official cash rate at 3.12% in September 2025 (PVS 3.23%) Sees official cash rate at 2.87% in June 2026 (PVS 3.1%)

Goldman Sachs expects the inflationary impact of the latest U.S. tariffs to be temporary, with core PCE inflation forecast to rise to 3.6% by the end of 2025 before easing in 2026. Info via a note by economists: bank argues that unlike the 2021–2022 inflation surge, today’s weaker economy—with a looser labour market and slowing

The post on the rate cut is here: RBNZ cuts cash rate by 25bp vs. 25bp expected The summary of the minutes showed the beginnings of wariness on the Board for further rate cuts, notably: Committee discussed the options of keeping the OCR on hold at 3.50 percent or reducing it to 3.25 percent By

Citi outlines the risks: going to have roughly a $2T deficit this year the proposals could add approximately $600B to next year’s deficit, though tariff income might offset about $200B of that “Financing this deficit is going to require ongoing higher treasury issuance, which means high interest rates potentially valuation overhang” … rising yields create

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaking in Tokyo: Important that inflation expectations are well anchored You want to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent Way to avoid that is to respond relatively strongly when inflation begins to deviate from Target Misperceptions about ‘r star’ can lead to

China’s Vice Commerce Minister and Deputy International Trade Representative, Ling Ji, met with a group of German small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) representatives in Beijing on Tuesday. Ling highlighted that China’s vast consumer market, well-developed industrial supply chains, and dynamic tech innovation environment offer strong opportunities for German SMEs to invest and grow. He also

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and two Fed speakers feature on the events calendar here in Asia for today. The RBNZ is expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp: More preview remarks on the expected RBNZ 25bp rate cut this week Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut its cash rate by

Russia’s Medvedev on Trumps comment that Putin is playing with fire…. “I only know of one really bad thing- WWIII” Let’s hope not, but two leaders are starting to shove each other. Trump with his words. Putin with his continuous bombing of Ukraine. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US major indices have a solid start to the holiday shortened week NZDUSD moves lower ahead of the RBNZ rate decision Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, May 28 2025: RBNZ rate cut expected, &2 Fed speakers Russia’s Medvedev on Trumps comment that Putin is playing w/fire… Crude oil future settle at $60.89 down -$0.64 or

The NZDUSD is lower, retreating to a low of 0.5939 after failing to sustain a break above the key 0.6000 resistance level and the highs from April and early May between 0.6018 and 0.60281. The high price yesterday stretched to a high of 0.6030 but stalled. Buyers turned to sellers (eventually). Today, the pullback has

Says: “Pres Trump supports the bill”. THe Senate will shift focus to creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve after the stablecoin vote What could go wrong? The price of bitcoin reached $112,000 last week to a new all-time high. The price day is back above the January 20 hi at $109,356. The current price is trading

The AUDUSD rebound found resistance at the 100-hour moving average, which once again proved to be a reliable technical barrier for buyers. After the rejection, price action has turned lower, with the pair now trading below a critical confluence of moving averages. Specifically, the pair is holding below the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 growth falls to 2.2% from 2.4% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.2 percent on May 27, down from 2.4 percent on May 16. After recent releases from the

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Lane in a Faz interview says: No one is talking about dramatic rate cuts We are in a zone of normal central banking ECB task is to bring inflation back to 2% That task is mostly completed and inflation to remain close to 2% in the coming months Service inflation still too high The

The crazy, aggressiveness from Russia’s Putin continues. Air raid sirens are blaring in Kiev as a threat ballistic missile strike. This is according to the Kiev Post. Pres. Trump has been increasingly more critical of Russias Putin, threatening additional sanctions, and added a warning that Putin is playing with fire. Putin seems to be unfazed

The GBPUSD is under pressure after failing to hold gains above the 1.3532 to 1.3541 resistance level for a second time. Sellers stepped in, leading to a reversal that has pushed the pair back toward a key technical zone. Immediate support is found near the 100-hour moving average at 1.3495 and the swing area around

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.6% vs +0.9% y/y expected Prior +0.9% That’s a softer set of readings than expected, with services inflation in particular seen easing. That dropped from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May and that will feed into the core estimate further. Although, core annual inflation was already on the lower side for

Two sources told Reuters that Japan will consider trimming issuance of super-long bonds in response to the recent sharp rise in yields. The report weighed on yields and the Japanese Yen as the market started to expect government intervention on the matter. BoJ officials recently didn’t provide anything to calm the surge in yields, but

The USDCHF continued to respect key technical levels in early Tuesday trading, as the pair once again found support at the 0.8193–0.8212 swing area. The zone, which had provided a base earlier this month (and into the end of April), attracted buyers again after a brief dip below it during the Asian session quickly reversed—similar

Agustín Carstens (head of the Bank for International Settlements): Essential for fiscal authorities to curb relentless rise in public debt With days of ultra-low rates over, fiscal authorities have narrow window to put their house in order before public trust in their commitments starts to fray Central banks should not be expected to stabilise inflation

The major European indices are closing mostly higher. France’s CAC is marginally lower. The German DAX leading the way with a gain of 0.83% and closing at a new all-time record high.. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German Dax rose 198.84 points or 0.83% at 24226.50. France’s CAC -1.34.points or -0.02% at 7826.80.

Today’s MGC Futures Trading Plan: Market Context and Levels MGC Futures Trading Plan Today for Traders Q: “What’s today’s trading plan for Micro Gold (MGC) futures based on VWAP and volume profile?” A: Bullish Bias: To turn bullish, MGC futures must regain today’s VWAP at 3,318.8. Above this level, upside targets include yesterday’s POC (3,338),

Fundamental Overview As the market finished to reprice the interest rates expectations for the Fed and got back in line with the central bank’s baseline scenario of two rate cuts in 2025, the pressure on gold waned and the precious metal started to climb up again. Last Friday, Trump’s threat of imposing a 50% tariff

In the coming months we cannot rule out negative inflation in Switzerland Price stability is essential contribution a central bank can make. Trade uncertainties are currently enormous, related to the tariffs from the United States. Yeah or so was yada yada sed you see him go check it maybe is with her daddy in the

Economic confidence 94.8 Prior 93.6; revised to 93.8 Services confidence 1.5 Prior 1.4; revised to 1.6 Industrial confidence -10.3 Prior -11.2; revised to -11.0 It’s a slight improvement in the euro area economic sentiment but the estimate continues to range thereabouts since the turn of the year. With Trump’s latest tariffs threat, there’s still much

U.S. session traders are pushing the dollar lower as risk sentiment improves ahead of the stock market open. Equity futures are pointing to strong gains, with the S&P 500 up 78 points (+1.33%), Dow futures higher by 487 points, and NASDAQ futures up 318 points. In the EURUSD, an early dip tested the rising 100-hour

The EURUSD rally stalled just ahead of the 61.8% retracement level at 1.13781, with the high price reaching 1.1375 before rotating lower. Sellers stepped in at this key technical level, and the pair has since dipped back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.13451—a line that had previously supported the bullish bias (or at least

High yield 3.955% WI level at the time of the auction 3.965%. Tail -1.0 basis points versus six-month average of -0.4 basis points. Bid to cover 2.57X vs average of 2.65X Directs 26.2% versus six-month average of 16.4% Indirects 63.3% versus six-month average of 72.7% Dealers 10.5% versus six-month average of 10.9% Auction Grade: B-

Chinese state media talking up the solid rise for April industrial profits China April Industrial Profits +3% y/y (prior +2.6%) Goldman Sachs sees lower oil prices in 2025-2026 Japanfinmin Kato: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamental PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1876 (vs. estimate at 7.1842) Japan fin min

Optionality remains essential. Inflation undershoot would only be temporary. A bigger rate cut would certainly see European long term yields surging as it would be seen as a mistake in the current context. He’s taking a more neutral view on rates here and he’s not worried of undershooting the inflation target. He’s likely for a

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

. Feds Barkin on Bloomberg says: Data shows economy on same trajectory as last year or two Low unemployment and inflation moving towards target. Will have to see how consumers react to price changes. Seeing lots of hiring freezes. Businesses are still largely pulling to the sidelines. People are patient on investment, does not see

Pres. Trump is mulling increased sanctions on Russia in coming days as a result of frustration with Russia’s Pres. Putin after the drone strikes over the weekend. US trade with Russia represents less than 0.3% of total U.S. international trade from most recent data, making Russia a very minor trading partner for the United States.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1380 and 1.1400 level. The expiries should act as a magnet, especially the latter, in keeping price action in a stickier spot in the session ahead. That especially with a lack of

Prior CHF 6.35 billion; revised to CHF 6.29 billion The Swiss trade surplus was little changed in April with exports falling from CHF 30.3 billion in March to CHF 25.4 billion in April. Meanwhile, imports were seen down from CHF 24.0 billion in March to CHF 19.1 billion in April. This article was written by

We are likely to see that to be the case at our meeting next week French inflation is a positive indicator This follows the French inflation report earlier here. And his remarks pretty much reaffirms a rate cut for next week as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD peaked yesterday at 0.6030, just above the previous 2025 high at 0.6028, but quickly reversed as sellers leaned into that resistance. The decline has since pushed the pair back toward a critical confluence support zone that will be key in determining the next directional move. This support area centers around the 100- and

Barclays notes that the shift in portfolios by global investors during the month could invite more dollar selling to take place this week. That as trade tensions eased significantly since April, which led to a broader rally in stocks in May. Their month-end rebalancing model predicts that the dollar will face moderate selling against other

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.8% This of course follows the more solid gains from yesterday. UK stocks will have some catching up to do after the extended weekend. Hence, the gains in the futures there. As for the US, we’re seeing S&P 500 futures up 1.0% awaiting the return of Wall Street.

Greg had the breaking headline on this: OPEC+ meeting was brought forward to May 31st from June 1st A little more detail now: eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 31, a day earlier than previously planned Reuters with the info, citing three unnamed sources meeting will likely decide on July output sources previously told

The ECB should pause further interest rate cuts until at least September. We should keep out powder dry given the US-EU trade war. No reason to lower rates in June and July. Cutting further would be more risky than staying where we are now. Further rate cut would likely have no effect on economic activity.

The very soft French inflation figures released this morning are weighing on the euro as the market might be starting to look for a stronger divergence between the Fed and the ECB. The ECB policymakers also continue to blame the stronger euro for the downside risks for inflation. This might eventually force them to cut

Hope that by the beginning of July, we will have a result from discussions with the US Need to diversify; important not to depend on single trading partner As a reminder, Switzerland was slapped with 31% tariffs from the initial announcement in April as they are being treated separately from the EU. However, now the

The data from Japan is here: Japan Services Producer Price Index (April 2025) +3.1% (expected +3.0%, prior +3.1%) And Ueda here: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda – close to inflation target but not quite there Ueda’s remarks were not overly hawkish (see that link above) but nevertheless the yen has gained ground sharply: This article

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a resounding triumph for the technology sector, led by impressive gains across key players. Both semiconductor and software segments are exhibiting strong upward momentum. Nvidia (NVDA) shines with a remarkable 3.03% increase, while AVGO closely follows at 2.23%. Microsoft (MSFT) adds significant weight with a gain of 1.78%.

The USDJPY is gaining bullish traction after breaking above a key confluence zone that included the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the May decline, between 144.124 and 144.257. This area had capped the pair earlier, but today’s rally clears that hurdle and shifts near-term bias to the upside. On the downside, buyers

NVIDIA Earnings Technical Analysis with tradeCompass (May 27, 2025) TradeCompass Summary for Today Bearish below: $145.50 Bullish only on reclaim: $122.25 (after breakdown) Primary Bias: Sit out the initial volatility, then fade or follow confirmation Partial Targets (Bearish): $142.65, $139.21, $130.55, $124.57 Partial Targets (Bullish): $125.88, $127.31, $138.86, $145.15 NVDA Earnings Context & tradeCompass Strategic

The trade negotiations with the EU were not going well before Friday We could see a few more deals as soon as this week We are trying to unshore as much as we can and trying to not be so reliant on China I think you will be astonished how fast manufacturing onshores. We don’t

The USDCAD is testing a key technical area after rebounding from its lowest level of the year at 1.36841 yesterday, a low not seen since October. The pair had extended its slide last week after finding sellers near the 100-hour moving average at 1.3960 on May 20, eventually reaching the recent bottom yesterday. Today, the

The major US stock indices are moving sharply higher in reaction to the more favorable EU tariff situation. Trump on Truth Social today posted: The US trade policy is a “page-turner” with every page (i.e., day) telling a different story. A snapshot of the markets shows: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): ↑ 477.50 points (+1.15%)

The UK government has announced a £3 billion investment aimed at creating 120,000 new training places in sectors like construction, healthcare, engineering, and digital technology. The goal is to tackle workforce shortages and reduce dependence on migrant labour. The move follows increased political pressure to curb immigration, especially after the rise of the anti-immigration Reform

Prior month 0.4% Home price data for 20 markets in the month of March fell -0.1% versus 0.3% estimate YoY 20 market home price index 4.1% vs 4.5% estimate. Last month 4.5% Nicholas Godec Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices “Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual

Prior month 86.0 Index Value: The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.0 in May 2025, up from 86.0 in April 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of 87.0. Present Situation Index: Declined to 135.9 from 133.5 in April 2025, indicating a slightly less optimistic view of current business and labor market conditions. Best since February Expectations

Chinese state media outlet Global Times cites positive developments helping drive industrial profits in April: +3.0% year-on-year in April, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March GT says that new driving force sectors like equipment and high-tech manufacturing saw rapid profit growth, highlighting industrial resilience From January to April, high-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0%