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Citi have bumped up their 0-3 month price view to USD 60/bbl for Brent keeps Q2 and Q3 Brent averages at USD 62/bbl and USD 63/bbl respectively Info via Reuters headline. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is speaking soon, at 2140 GMT / 1740 US Eastern time: participates in a fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum Later we’ll get the Australian employment report for April. It feels early in the month for this, but the

The USDCAD moved lower in early trading today but found support near a familiar swing area between 1.38917 and 1.3904. Buyers leaned against that zone, which has acted as a floor in recent sessions, and the price responded with a bounce higher. The recovery has taken the pair back above the 100-bar moving average on

Goldman Sachs expects core retail sales to rise in April as consumers frontloaded purchases ahead of impending tariffs, while headline retail sales are likely to remain flat due to weak auto sales and falling gas prices. Key Points: Core retail sales forecast: +0.4% m/m, driven by precautionary spending ahead of expected tariff-related price increases. Headline

Goldman Sachs targets for the benchmark US S&P 500, ICYMI: Three-month target 5,900, GS see the current advance stalling in the short term “Already-optimistic market pricing of the economic growth outlook as well as uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of impending slowdown in economic and earnings growth will likely keep a ceiling on equity multiples during

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to pull back amid the positive global growth expectations following the much better than expected US-China news on Monday. These expectations are also leading to a more hawkish repricing in interest rates and the pricing out of stagflationary risk. In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields

Société Générale refrains from recommending explicit short USD positions for now, citing policy-driven disruption in FX markets. Instead, they favor tactical long AUD and short CHF exposure, anticipating benefits from trade thaw and reduced geopolitical tension. Key Points: USD view neutral for now: Despite President Trump’s desire for a weaker dollar and rising US yields,

Gold has broken below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential shift in momentum following its recent highs.The last few attempts of that rising MA (see green line on the chart above) found sellers A close – and staying below this key trend-defining level – would confirm weakening bullish control and

Fed pricing has substantially shifted since the peak of angst about growth, tariffs and inflation two weeks ago. At the time, the market was pricing in 131 bps in easing through the April 29, 2026 scheduled FOMC meeting. Today, that has dropped to 71 bps as the market cheers the sharp drop in US-China tariffs.

GBPUSD’s earlier rally stalled at the familiar resistance zone between 1.33619 and 1.33784, where sellers leaned in and capped upside momentum. The pullback found support earlier today at the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, and the pair is now retracing lower toward that level again, presenting a potential dip-buying opportunity. For buyers, holding

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares are currently up around 17.14% at $45.57 , extending yesterday’s 16% rally. The sharp move comes on the heels of a major catalyst: a multi-year, $20 billion partnership with Saudi data-center developer DataVolt. As part of the deal, Super Micro will accelerate delivery of ultra-dense GPU platforms and rack systems

The major US indices closed higher once again with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 1.61%. Today’s move was fueled by the expected CPI data (0.2% for the headline and core measure versus 0.3% expected). The S&P index is now positive on the year by 0.08%. The NASDAQ index is within

Gold is running stops after breaking the May 1 low. It’s now down $60 to $3187 after the May bottom of $3202 was breached. Gold had tried to form a double bottom at $3200 but that effort has failed now in light of the climb-down in the trade war and ceasefire in India/Pakistan. The early-April

Current moderately restrictive policy rate in a good place to respond to economic developments Watching closely for signs in hard data of weaker activity Recent inflation data consistent with further progress toward 2% goal, but future path uncertainty due to tariffs Tariffs could lead to higher inflation Labor market still solid Q1 GDP data overstated

A day of lower-tier data head, nothing here to move major FX too much upon release. Wage growth data from Australia may attract some attention. Strong wage growth can help fuel inflation, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is still not comfortable declaring a win over inflation pressure. The Bank has begun to cut its

Says 90 day US-China trade deal suggests potential for more lasting agreements, likely supporting normalisation of trade flows. Sees oil supply outside OPEC+ rising by 800K BPD this year (previously 900K). Sees 5% cut un E&P investment in non-OPEC+ producers in 2025. Trims forecast for total US oil supply growth in 2025 to 300K BPD

Estimates put the plane’s value around USD400mn I think? There will have to be money spent on it to secure it as AF1. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Coin Desk with the info: Tether added another 4,812 Bitcoin to Twenty One Capital’s Bitcoin holdings bought $458 mn of Bitcoin for Twenty One Capital transferred it to an escrow wallet on May 9 disclosed in a May 13 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission More at the link BTC update: — Stablecoin

After initially breaking above the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.5946, NZDUSD gained upside traction, pushing to a high of 0.5968. However, the bullish momentum quickly faded, and the pair has since slipped back below both the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.59464, and, more recently, the 200-hour MA at 0.59378.

Here is the scoop from Charlie Gasparino, though these deals have been rumored for a couple weeks: Trade-tariff deals with Japan and South Korea said to be “close,” according to me Wall Street sources close to the White House. Timing unclear. India deal as well though it has been throttled by the tensions with Pakistan.

Worried that household inflation expectations have increased Need to see loss of pricing power by firms But goods price inflation is going up She’s turned back to the hawkish side, having voted to keep the bank rate unchanged last week. Yesterday, she defended her position in saying that they will stop using restrictive language “when

EURUSD failed to sustain earlier gains as price action today stalled just ahead of the 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart above) and the lower boundary of a key swing zone between 1.12657 and 1.1275. Sellers leaned into the level and have since pushed the pair back toward the 100-hour moving averages The

The S&P 500 is up 0.3% in the early going while the Nasdaq is up 0.6%. There isn’t much (anything?) on the calendar to derail things today so we’ll wait for the usual Trump tweets and other news out of the White House. That said, what could really change things? Tariff policy is paused on

When navigating online trading recommendations, it’s easy to come across information that goes against the grain of conventional financial wisdom. Some of these bits of advice are questionable, while others can be straight-up harmful to your financial outcomes. Octa, a regulated and trusted broker, breaks down some of the worst advice traders can follow and

The dollar was the laggard in trading yesterday as it surrendered a large chunk of the gains from Monday. And that comes despite a continued bid in equities and with Treasury yields pushing higher as well. The latter is going to be a key focus as long-end yields are starting to near the April highs

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.4% German DAX -0.6% France CAC -0.6% UK FTSE 100 -0.3% Spain IBEX +0.3% — highest close since 2008 Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% Spanish stocks have been in an impressive bull market and are making new highs after the tariff rout. This article was written by Adam Button

The crude oil market has been battered by negative news on both the demand and supply side in April and that weighed a lot on prices. More recently, the demand side of the equation started to improve as positive developments on the trade front made the market to expect better global growth ahead. Technically, we

The AUDUSD rally ran into resistance near the 2025 extreme area around 0.65135 earlier today and quickly reversed lower, signaling fading bullish momentum. The pullback has now brought the pair down to test a key confluence of moving average support, most notably the 200-day MA at 0.64578. This level is critical. A successful defense here

The dollar is down across the board to start European morning trade, as the selling from yesterday carries over. Despite the Monday jump, the dollar has failed to sustain the momentum with price action now starting to turn back against the currency. EUR/USD as seen above is now back above 1.1200 as the near-term bias

Some part of April inflation represents lagged nature of data Fed is still very much holding its breath Right now is a time for the Fed to wait for more information, try to get past the noise in the data Fed’s task is to be a steady hand and not to respond to daily gyrations

The Australian dollar stalled out today at 0.6500 and is now coming under broad pressure. The dip takes place as the US dollar rebounds in a choppy market. The move looks like it was driven by profit taking in stock markets and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.50%. This article was written by Adam

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.3% This follows from the solid showing in Wall Street again, with dip buyers turning things around in US trading. The S&P 500 has now turned positive on the year as Trump continues to talk up the market. He said yesterday that “the market will go higher”. For

EBC Financial Group has partnered with the International University of Ulaanbaatar (IUU) to bridge the gap between academic learning and real-world financial experience for Mongolia’s youth. This collaboration aims to nurture the next generation of finance professionals through internships, mentorship, and industry-academia initiatives. Below, we answer key questions about the partnership, its objectives, and the

The USDCHF is finding support near a prior ceiling area that has defined the lower boundary of its recent consolidation range, with buyers stepping in between 0.83184 and 0.8333. This level has provided a floor over the past few weeks and remains a critical line in the sand for near-term bullish hopes. Despite the recent

Prior was -2032K Gasoline -1022K vs -561K expected Distillates -3155K vs +129K expected Refinery utilization +1.2% vs +0.8% expected Private data released late yesterday: Crude +4287K Gasoline -1374K Distillates -3675K WTI crude oil was down 13-cents to $63.58 ahead of the data. It recovered from earlier lows after data showed Kazakhstan reduced output in April.

Tech sector rebounds: Nvidia and Google lead market gains The US stock market is seeing a notable uptick today, with significant contributions from the technology sector. As investors navigate an increasingly nuanced landscape, both Nvidia (NVDA) and Google (GOOG) have emerged as standout performers, driving the day’s positive momentum. Sector Overview Technology: The tech sector

Prior +11.0% Market index 251.2 vs 248.4 prior Purchase index 166.5 vs 162.8 prior Refinance index 718.1 vs 721.0 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.86% vs 6.84% prior Mortgage applications saw a minor increase in the past week, led by purchase activity as a drop in refinancing activity slightly offset the overall figure. With higher rates

The dollar decline has continued today with the greenback falling by -1% vs the JPY. The declines vs the EUR (-0.35%) and the GBP (-0.24%) have been less (and the EURUSD and GBPUSD are off their extremes for the day). Nevertheless, after the gains on Monday after the US/China deal, the greenback has retraced those

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill appears twice, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey later. 0845/0445 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill delivers speech at London School of Economics 1000/0600 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill takes part in a panel discussion on

The PPI data comes from the Bank of Japan. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 4.0% expected 4.0%, prior 4.2% Producer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% expected 0.2%, prior 0.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.2% HICP +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.3% The downside to the report is that core annual inflation is seen ticking higher again to 2.9%. That is up from 2.6% in March. It’s a bump in the road and acts as thorn in the side to the ECB in pursuing further rate cuts.

Australian Q1 2025 wage price index +3.4% y/y 3.2% was expected, prior +3.2% +0.9% q/q expected +0.8%, prior +0.7% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar selling picks up to start the session Fed’s Goolsbee: It will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data ECB supervisors step up checks on dollar funding at banks over Trump concerns – report ECB’s Nagel: Euro will become stronger as a reserve currency in the coming years ECB’s

Hassett is Trump’s director of the National Economic Council, a senior economic advisor. He was speaking with Fox: more than 25 deals on the table when Trump returns he will announce the next deal This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Prior +7.0% New yuan loans ¥280.0 billion vs ¥700.0 billion Prior ¥3.64 trillion After the big surge in March, new bank loans in China fell off with the reading even coming in well below estimates. The ramp up in Q1 comes as policymakers were ramping up stimulus in preparations of a trade war with the

We’re committed to avoiding protracted trade conflict with US. We want to support the EU to agree to as many trade deals as possible. We will tackle one-sided dependencies on China in the name of strategic de-risking. We still haven’t heard anything about the US-EU trade deal but it’s starting to become unlikely that the

US April core CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected Trump: The market will go higher More Trump: Working hard to end Russia/Ukraine bloodshed China confirms US tariff reduction, highlights further future cuts Trump tells Powell to cut rates: “Let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing” US Treasury launches another round of Iran

The USDCAD remains capped by key technical barriers, with Monday and Tuesday’s rally stalling near the 200-day moving average at 1.40114 and the critical swing zone between 1.40097 and 1.40268. This area has proven to be a firm ceiling for now, with sellers defending their ground. The price of the USDCAD fell yesterday and again

South Korea April unemployment rate 2.7% expected 3.0%, prior 2.9% Jobs added in the month +194K vs. +193K in March — The won surged in early May vs. the USD, along with other Asia FX. That has been nearly all reversed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A snippet from BMO: today’s bear steepening was about pricing out the chance of a US recession in the near-term a severe enough equity market correction can change the hiring behavior of business leaders, spending patterns of consumers, and trajectory of the real economy. As the S&P 500 is now back in positive territory for

Prior was +2.9% (revised to +4.9%) Non-residential -14.5% m/m Residential +2.0% m/m Q1 permits +2.9% The revision to the February number takes some of the sting out of this miss but it’s now abundantly clear that much of the housing market is Canada is entering a period of stagnation (at best) with the condo-building industry

We have an empty calendar today on the data front, so at best the focus will be on central bank speakers as we try to gauge their next moves following the recent developments on the trade front. The most important one should be Fed’s Waller, who recently become one of the most dovish members. He

However, not to the US though. One of the sources said that the permits were issued to suppliers for customers in Europe and Vietnam. As a reminder, China stepped up their rare earth export controls by restricting a further seven minerals last month here. It is reported that there is at least four permits granted

There are a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1175 level. It’s not one that holds any technical significance but could help to provide a floor for price action with the dollar coming back under pressure after the

Wall Street Journal with the report, gated. In brief: Baidu is preparing to test its driverless ride-hailing service, Apollo Go, in Europe for the first time. Baidu is in talks with Switzerland’s PostAuto to launch Apollo Go and plans to launch in Turkey amid rising domestic competition. Autonomous-driving companies are seeking to monetize their tech

Business expectations remain gloomy, particularly in export-oriented manufacturing sector Inflation likely to remain in the region of 2% for the remainder of the year Trade and economic policy uncertainty remains significantly elevated Just some token remarks there from Germany. Despite some improvement to the outlook, the backdrop remains challenging for Europe’s largest economy. Not least

Fitch Ratings says Australia’s banks’ results show resilience Bank of England Wednesday – two Pills and a Baileys Chinese internet giant Baidu preparing to test driverless ride-hailing service in Europe Chinese company linked to TikTok bought $300,000,000 of $TRUMP Coin Brazil’s Lula: Want to create a currency that does not make us dependent on one

Eurostoxx flat Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 -0.1% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The overall risk mood is keeping steadier, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.16% currently. There’s not too much action in the major currencies space as well, with the dollar keeping mostly rangebound against the others.

It is being reported that ECB supervisors have pressed banks in the region to assess their dollar funding needs especially if there is market distress. The idea here is that they are fearing a possible scenario in which they cannot tap into Fed facilities if Trump decides to pressure the Fed into blocking that. For

China, EU discussed optimising market access Also discussed cooperation on sustainable finance, cross-border data flows, payment system development Both sides are continuing to exchange pleasantries in a time when they are also facing a tough time against the US. The comments here come after a financial working group meeting held in Brussels. This article was

Dollar is very important for the world financial system But the role of the euro will become stronger as a reserve currency over the next few years Well, the dollar has certainly lost some credibility and allure in the last two months. And this week’s price action itself underscores that sentiment, with the big gains

Goldman Sachs is now seeing the Stoxx 600 index hitting a target of 570 in the next 12 months – up from 520 previously. Meanwhile, they are also seeing the UK FTSE hit a target of 8,800 in the next 12 months now – up from 8,500 previously. This article was written by Justin Low

South Korea readies aid for small firms facing U.S. tariff risks The South Korean government has announced a 4.6 trillion won (US$3.25 billion) support package aimed at small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) vulnerable to U.S. tariffs. Measures include financial assistance, logistics subsidies, and export market expansion programs. Although SMEs made up 17% of Korea’s exports

I’m a big crypto fan. He’s giving some general comments on various topics but given the positive sentiment in the market I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin rallying just on this single comment. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Current uncertainty will be the new “normal” Central banks have to get used to managing it Expect there to be new staff projections in June But we don’t know the exact impact from tariffs on inflation and the economy June rate decision depends on incoming data At least he’s trying to paint a bit more

If you’re waiting on this, then it’s a bit of a dud. Here’s the full speech. It’s an awards ceremony so I’m not sure if there will be a Q&A of sorts after his prepared speech here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla stock has increased by more than 24% in the past month. While still far from the highs of $480 per share reached in March, investors seem to have regained optimism, and surprisingly so. Last week, news broke that Tesla’s sales in China had declined for seven consecutive months. In addition, new car sales in

The US Dollar has been under strong selling pressure for a few months and eventually became one of the most crowded trades. When you get at such overstretched levels, as soon as conditions change, the repricing in expectations can lead to notable corrections. In the last few weeks, the positive news on the trade front

There was no catalyst for the sudden weakness in the US Dollar but this move could offer a great opportunity for dollar bulls. The short dollar trade is still a bit overcrowded and there are good reasons to see Treasury yields moving higher in the next weeks. I’m starting to doubt that we even get

MUFG expects the US dollar to see only modest gains following signs of tariff de-escalation, citing lingering investor caution, skepticism about US policy stability, and shifting yield dynamics—especially favoring the yen medium-term. Key Points: Tariff Optimism Priced In:Positive US comments on de-escalation have boosted the dollar, but FX reaction likely capped, with much of the

There was a time — not long ago, and not far from here — when a JPEG of a cartoon animal could be sold for the price of a London flat. At first, it looked like a digital renaissance, then perhaps something more suspect. Now, with the early dust settled, what’s left is not exactly

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.2% Core annual inflation is seen nudging higher to 2.4%, up from 2.0% in March. So, that’s another thorn in the side to the ECB with the German report indicating the same trend. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry says they’ve made clear that agreement will not be reached with the US unless concrete guarantees have been made. The comments come ahead of a meeting of Iran with the E3 – Britain, France, and Germany – in Istanbul on Friday to lay the foundations for US-Iran talks after.

What happened to the Tea Party? Fiscal conservatism continues to die a slow death in the United States and the bond market may be taking notice. The latest Congressional estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation show a $3.8 trillion increase in the deficit over 10 years, or about 14% of revenue. Put differently, this

UBS has downgraded its view on US equities to Neutral from Attractive, saying the recent market rebound has priced out much of the excessive pessimism that had followed the White House’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. The S&P 500 has climbed 11% since 10 April, outpacing the level it held before the tariff announcement on 2 April.

The NZDUSD continues to grind higher after sellers failed to hold a break below key support at the 0.5825 swing area and the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (lower green line at 0.58525). That dip yesterday and into today, quickly reversed, and buyers have regained control, driving the pair back above several key

New York Times (gated) with the report: A struggling technology company that has ties to China and relies on TikTok made an unusual announcement this week. It had secured funding to buy as much as $300 million of $TRUMP, the so-called memecoin marketed by President Trump. GD Culture Group, a publicly traded firm with a

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Recapping that data from Japan earlier: Japan data – April PPI +0.2% m/m (expected +0.2%) & +4.0% y/y (expected +4.0%) Yen slipping a little after the as expected wholesale inflation data The rise in Japan’s wholesale prices in April was a little less than in March. The small appreciation of JPY tooks some inflationary pressure

Fitch Ratings’ says Australia’s banks’ results show resilience and support their current ratings. In brief: expect earnings headwinds to continue for Australian banks in 2025 earnings are likely to be broadly stable net interest margins (NIM) are likely to contract further in 2025 and 2026 as interest rates are cut .. the impact should be

Via oilprice.com on twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.1mn barrels Distillates +0.1mn bbls Gasoline -0.6 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two

Brazil’s Lula: We want China to help us to make the technological progress we need Brazil is not worried about the impact of US-China trade agreement on Brazilian exports to China on Brazil strengthening relations with China: Brazil is not afraid of potential US retaliation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Brazil’s Lula: We want to create a currency or a group of currencies that do not make us dependent on one currency. Earlier: Lula: Brazil strengthening relations with China: Brazil not afraid of US retaliation China’s foreign minister meets Brazil counterpart in Beijing China is building megaports in South America to feed its need for

April PPI data from Japan is here: Japan data – April PPI +0.2% m/m (expected +0.2%) & +4.0% y/y (expected +4.0%) Wholesale inflation in Japan is remaining solid. If it feeds through to CPI the Bank of Japan will, at the margin, be more inclined to hike rates. The yen is slipping a few tics

Iran and Europe will meet on Friday in Istanbul. Iran and the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—will meet Friday in Istanbul meeting is a precursor to the fifth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks aim is to clarify stances as Europe weighs triggering U.N. sanctions if no deal emerges by August. Info via Bloomberg and Reuters, diplomatic

Trump speaking with Fox: Attempting to initiate access to China China relationship is excellent I could see myself dealing with China’s Xi on deal This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. NZD/USD barely changed on this data release. The Kiwi $ is moving around mainly on global developments, not local

The Financial Times is gated, link is here if you can access it. In brief: China has criticised a trade deal between the UK and US China is concerned that the deal that could be used to squeeze Chinese products out of British supply chains Beijing said it was a “basic principle” that agreements between

Crude oil futures are settling at $63.67. That is up $1.72 or 2.78%. The price is up for the fifth day in six trading days and four days in a row. Since closing at $57.15 on May 5, the price has moved up 11.38%.The close today was the highest since April 17 when the price

Yesterday the GBPUSD tumbled lower on the back of the China/US tariff fall and suspension, and in the process sliced through the familiar swing zone at 1.32598 (see green numbered circles) and the lower band between 1.3232‑1.3241 (see red numbered circles), then briefly pierced the 38.2 % retrace of the April rally at 1.31603, printing a session

The EURUSD is pushing higher again and now approaches a key resistance area between 1.1193 and 1.1213 — a zone that has capped rallies multiple times in the past, including three peaks in July and August 2024. The high price has reached 1.11823. Adding weight to the topside test is the 200-bar moving average on

Bank of America has lowered its USD/CAD year-end forecast from 1.40 to 1.38, citing overly optimistic CAD pricing in April. While the pair may consolidate near 1.40 in the near term, BofA sees medium-term downside to 1.35 and recommends a 1-year RKO (reverse knock-out) put to express that view. Key Points: Revised Forecast: USD/CAD is

The usual stuff from Trump: No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!! THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done. What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be

The NASDAQ index is trading to new site session highs as Pres. Trump completes his speech in Saudi Arabia. Toward the end of his speech he did say that he will order the cessation of sanctions against Syria. The NASDAQ index is now up 316 points or 1.69% at 19024.53. The high price came in

The GBPUSD is continuing to push higher, breaking above its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above) and swing level which are both at 1.3257. The momentum to the upside has continued to the 200-hour moving average at 1.32837. That moving average was tested on Friday’s trade, but found willing sellers after a

Prior was 97.4 The Uncertainty Index decreased four points from March to 92 but remained far above the historical average of 68. Seasonally adjusted, 34% of business owners reported job openings they could not fill in April, down six points from March. The last time job openings were below this level was in January 2021.

Trump continues and says: Working hard to end Russia/Ukraine bloodshed Talks could produce good results. Rubio is going to talks. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s no surprise the Treasury is announcing new sanctions with Trump talking about Iran and visiting the Middle East. The latest sanctions target the global network shipping Iranian oil, the Treasuy wrote in the release. WTI crude oil is up $1.79 to $63.74 today. The S&P 500 just crossed +1%. This article was written by

With that, UBS is forecasting the Chinese economy to grow between 3.7% to 4.0% in 2025. That is an upgrade from their previous forecast of 3.4% here last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD has turned higher in trading today and tests the 200-day moving average, each of which failed to generate sustained upside momentum on 2 previous tests yesterday and last Thursday (despite ticks above the MA). The last two attempts above the level were particularly weak, leading to a sharper corrective move lower. Yesterday, the

Yesterday’s announcement of a 90‑day suspension of some US‑China tariffs lit a fire under USDJPY, propelling the pair from a gap higher low 145.71, to a session peak at 148.64. That rally stopped cold in a long‑standing swing zone between 148.56 and 148.73 (red arrows on the chart) — the same band that capped price action multiple times

Talks in Geneva with China resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation. President Trump wants to rebalance the US economy. China needs to rebalance towards consumption economy. We do not want a generalised decoupling between the two largest economies in the world. United States will bring medicine, semiconductor and other strategic industries home. Very productive

We will get a momentary break from the trade war today with US inflation data due at 8:30 am ET (1230 GMT). It’s tough to say how the Fed is evaluating these data points because so much is happening so quickly. Tariffs spiked in April but it takes some time for shipments to come through

One of the early lessons of Trump’s second term is that when he says to buy stocks, the market goes up. He’s being less explicit this time and didn’t write it on Truth Social so I’d be cautious. Previously, he tweeted it before announcing good news like removing reciprocal tariffs and the China deal. The

The report says that the ECB will brush aside calls for self-criticism and stand by its aggressive stimulus policy during the past decade in its strategy review. The review began in March and is believed to try and address issues such as whether QE, negative rates, and forward guidance have been appropriate tools in policymaking.

The USDCAD extended higher yesterday and again earlier today, but both rallies have stalled just ahead of a key resistance confluence. The area of interest includes: The 200-day moving average, currently near 1.40111 The swing area resistance between 1.4009 and 1.4027 Today’s high stopped at 1.40157 before rotating back lower This zone has now rejected

Fear has been replaced by FOMO in markets. S&P 500 futures are now up 40 points and getting to within striking distance of 6000, which we haven’t been above since March 3. The market continues to digest the US-China trade war climb down and it likes what it’s hearing. We are expecting comments from Trump

Sector Overview The stock market is exhibiting diverse patterns today, with notable sector-specific performance highlighting varying investor outlooks. Technology Storms Ahead: The technology sector is experiencing substantial growth. Nvidia (NVDA) is a major highlight, surging by 5.00%, driven by robust performance expectations and increased demand for AI technologies. Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR) also see

Crypto mixing with DC politics? For the longest time, that combination often spelled trouble—think friction, regulatory fog, and sometimes, downright opposition from the powers that be. But the ground seems to be shifting rapidly in 2025. The once-chilly regulatory environment is showing signs of a thaw, spurred by a new administration’s different tune and a

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida: US tariffs put downward pressure on Japan’s economy There are both upside, downside risks from US tariffs on Japan’s prices Japan’s economic growth to slow to around potential before accelerating again as overseas growth resumes moderate growth path Japan’s output gap to remain around current levels, after which it

Well, it was noted yesterday here how China avoided mentioning the fentanyl issue in their communication/statement and now we’re starting to see why. That comes despite the many comments by Bessent that China had supposedly come to understand the US’ position on the matter over the weekend. The Chinese foreign ministry was asked today whether

Citi has lowered its 0–3 month gold price target to $3,150/oz, down from a previous forecast, citing expectations of consolidation following recent gains. Analysts at the bank now anticipate the metal will trade in a range of $3,000 to $3,300/oz in the near term – Despite today’s fall, support for gold is continuing with ongoing

Details of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet are leaking out: Francois-Philippe Champagne to be finance minister Tim Hodgson named minister of energy and natural resources Dominic Leblanc remains in charge of US-Canada trade Chrystia Freeland remains minister for transport and internal trade Melanie Joly named industry minister Sean Fraser, Minister of Justice and Attorney

The USDCHF moved higher yesterday on the back of broad USD strength, but momentum stalled before reaching the 38.2% retracement of the March–April decline at 0.84823. The high price reached 0.8475. That retracement level remains a critical hurdle for any sustained recovery. Absent that, and the correction higher is just a plain-vanilla variety and keeps

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the German ZEW survey and BoE’s Pill speech. The ZEW index is expected to rebound on easing trade fears and BoE’s Pill is unlikely to say anything new since he spoke just last week. In the American session, we get the US

ECB’s Nagel: It’s important to be cautious and not overreact US April NFIB small business optimism index 95.8 vs 94.5 expected BoE’s Pill: I do worry about upside risks to inflation in upside inflation scenario Germany May ZEW survey current conditions -82.0 vs -77.0 expected What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?

Student loans saw large uptick in transition into delinquency rate in Q1 Most other types of credit saw steady transition into delinquency rates Aggregate delinquency rate at 4.2% vs 3.6% in Q4 Researchers saw household balance sheets in pretty good shape Credit card and auto balances both trimmed in Q1, mortgages balances rose Household debt

Fund Managers most underweight US Dollars since 2006. US-China trade war ceasefire prevents recession/credit event. Prior to US-China talks in Geneva, fund managers saw US tariffs on China goods at 37%. 61% of fund managers see soft landing for the economy versus 37% in April. 26% see hard landing, down from 49% in April. We

China has announced the things that were pledged on Sunday: To adjust tariff rates on US goods on May 14 To pause the 24% tariff rate on US goods for 90 days Sets tariff rate at 10%, as expected says reduction in tariffs meets expectations of producers and consumers in both countries There is also

This comment doesn’t tell us much but we’ll monitor for further headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs citing trade war developments: In light of these developments and the meaningful easing in financial conditions over the last month, we are raising our 2025 growth forecast by 0.5pp to 1% Q4/Q4 and reducing our 12-month recession odds to 35%. Now forecast a December FOMC rate cut instead of July “We have lowered

The Bank of Japan ‘Summary of Opinions’ for its most recent meeting, April 30 – May 1, is today. Policy was left unchanged at this meeting: Bank of Japan maintains its short term rate at 0.5% The BoJ cited growing headwinds from higher US tariffs. The Bank cut its 2025 and 2026 economic growth forecasts

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will unveil is cabinet today in a move that could move the Canadian dollar. The market still isn’t sure how Carney will govern and his plan to ‘build, baby, build’ and counter US tariffs. Early reporting said former Finance Minister and Trump-antagonist Chrystia Freeland would be left off the roster

Headline CPI: CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% expected Prior was +2.4% m/m reading at +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Month-over-month unrounded +0.221% vs -0.088% prior Core CPI: Core CPI 2.8% vs +2.8% expected Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Core unrounded +0.237% vs +0.116% m/m prior Real weekly earnings % vs +0.3% prior Core services %

Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on April 30 and May 1, 2025 full text is here Headlines via Reuters: One member said: BOJ likely to keep raising interest rates in accordance with improvements in economy, prices One member said: No change to BOJ’s rate-hike stance as real interest rates

Goldman Sachs has shifted closer to market pricing on the ECB. They now see a 25 bps cut in June and another July, which would get them to 1.75%. The market is still skeptical on that timeline, seeing only an 80% chance of a cut in June and a lower likelihood of a cut at

This follows up from this part here yesterday: US-China deal reportedly does not cover de minimis exemption for e-commerce shipments It’s some comfort I guess that the duty/import charges will be reduced. But at 54%, it is still high for the average consumer. The de minimis exemption was eliminated previously so I don’t believe the

China’s foreign minister meets Brazil counterpart in Beijing China’s foreign minister, meeting Brazil counterpart: both agreed to uphold multilateralism, uphold universally recognized international rules, jointly defend the legitimate rights and interests of the global South exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis, expressed support for direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine Reuters with the

After the strong gains yesterday, the dollar is catching a bit of a breather in trading today. This comes as US futures are also just down slightly after the surging gains in the day before. Market players are digesting the US-China trade truce and will have to wait to see if the optimism can be

The EURUSD is seeing a modest rebound today after sharp declines yesterday, driven in part by a stronger USD following news of US-China tariff reductions (set for a 90-day period at least). The move lower on Monday found buyers just ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the January–April rally at 1.10395 — a level that

Bank of America analysts suggest that Monday’s market rally, sparked by news of a U.S.-China tariff agreement, may reflect the so-called “Trump put” — the notion that Trump will act to limit stock market declines. “The recent news flow on trade suggests that de-escalation is likely to continue.” “The Trump put is alive and well.”

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost across the board yesterday as the US-China tariff relief was much better than expected. The market is now looking at the more hawkish scenario where we get an average 10% global tariff rate and economic activity picks up on an easing in growth fears and general uncertainty. This

From before: China calls for its airlines to halt any further Boeing jet deliveries amid trade strife That helps to some extent but with the relative uncertainty of what might come next in the US-China trade war, I reckon Chinese airlines will continue to lean more and more towards Airbus – which already holds the

Should not assume that latest MPR forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve. I see risk of second round effects (for inflation). I remain concerned we have seen a structural change in price and wage setting in UK. Response of monetary policy to ensure we get CPI back to target may need

In monetary policy, it’s important to be cautious and not overreact, giving undue weight to specific announcements that could change shortly afterwards. We will continue to apply a data-driven approach. Decisions to be taken at each meeting. It looks like the hawks at the ECB are starting to get uncomfortable with the pace of rate

Prior 4.4% Employment change 112k vs 115k expected Prior 206k Average weekly earnings +5.5% vs +5.2% 3m/y expected Prior +5.6%; revised to +5.7% Average weekly earnings ex bonus +5.6% vs +5.7% 3m/y expected Prior +5.9% April payrolls change -33k Prior -78k; revised to -47k The jobless continues to allude to added softness in the labour

It will take time to end non-tariff barriers with China. I will talk to the Indian commerce minister Tuesday, then flying to South Korea. We are discussing other deals in parallel. The US is not relying on any trade partner for critical goods. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI China SASAC calls for advancement of major projects aligned with national priorities China is building megaports in South America to feed its need for crops BoJ Dep Gov Uchida says there is upside & downside risk from US tariffs on Japan’s prices Australian April business confidence -1 (prior -4) PBOC sets USD/ CNY central

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB flat S&P 500 futures are down slightly by 0.4% but that follows from the surging gains overnight as the index closed at the highs with over 3% gains. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

National Australia Bank business survey for April 2025 (survey conducted at the end of that month) business confidence -1 (prior -4) business conditions +2 (prior +3), well below the long-run average Some of the sub measures sales index held relatively steady at +5 employment relatively steady at +4 profitability down 4 points to -4, NAB

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that tariff and trade wars produce no winners, emphasizing that global peace, stability, and development can only be achieved through international cooperation. He warned that acts of bullying and domination will ultimately lead to isolation. China backs Latin America and the Caribbean in strengthening their role in global multilateral institutions.

UK consumers delivered a strong rebound in spending last month, with April retail sales jumping sharply thanks to Easter timing and unusually sunny weather. The British Retail Consortium reported a 7.0% year-on-year rise in total retail sales, up from 1.1% in March — the strongest annual gain for any month since the pandemic. Like-for-like sales

Crude oil futures are settling at $61.95. That is up $0.93 or 1.52%. The high price reached $63.57. The low price was at $61.04. The price is up for the third consecutive day. Since the low reached on May 5, the price is up 11.48%. Looking at the daily chart, there is a swing area

Prior -81.2 Economic sentiment 25.2 vs 11.9 expected Prior -14.0 The headline reading continues to underscore challenging conditions for the German economy but expectations are brightening, so that’s a positive takeaway in all this. ZEW notes that with a new government in place and progress on trade disputes, there is a significant increase in optimism.

Patrick McGee writes in the Times of London today about the complexity of the relationships between Apple and China and how it contributed to China’s rise while making Apple the most-valuable company in the world. Neither could have happened without the other. “There is zero chance that Apple will ever leave China,” writes McGee, who

With the US and China striking a deal to lower tariffs after the talks over the weekend, we’re going to see things go back to normal now right? Well, not quite. The thing is tariffs policy can change on a flick of a dime. However, the issue with the impact that it causes is that

China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has called on central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to accelerate innovation and strengthen their role in strategic and emerging industries, as part of efforts to meet 2025 targets and prepare for the 15th Five-Year Plan. At an expanded Party Committee meeting, SASAC emphasized the need to implement key

Uncertainty is weighing on investment. Soft data pointing to a significant cooling in business and consumer sentiment. Global economic integretion is now stalled, if not reversing; last few weeks have seen an acceleration in pace and scale of change. Even if a full-blown trade war turns out to be short-lived, uncertainty effects will persist for

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Amid the latest agreement struck between the US and China, Goldman Sachs is now seeing the probability of a recession in the US over the next 12 months at 35%. Their previous projection was 45%. Given that, they are now expecting the Fed to only deliver one rate cut this year as compared to their

Japan finance minister Kato Making preparations to join G7 meetings in Banff If have a chance, hope to have a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss forex Possible to discuss tariff deal if meeting with Bessent is realised Will closely monitor U.S.-China tariff deal Won’t comment on forex levels Will closely watch out

German DAX futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.3% US stocks ended yesterday with a flourish, so that’s helping to steady the ship on the week. Things are settling down now as we take a light breather to digest the US-China tariffs reduction and 90-day pause for talks to progress. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3%

Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment stays deeply pessimistic (below 100) +2.2% m/m in May to 92.1 prior -6% to 90.1 +12% y/y WPAC says confidence was given a boost by a clear election win result a more confident view on the prospect of interest rate cuts Earlier from Australia we had the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian

China is building megaports in South America to feed its need for crops – China has reassured its citizens they would have enough to eat without U.S. crops. It will have to unclog Latin America’s largest port first. Wall Street Journal is gated, link here if you can access. Main points: China state grain trader

Tariffs and the uncertainty around President Trump’s policies still risked a combination of higher consumer prices and slower growth. On China, it is definitely less impactful stagflationarily than the path they were on. Yet it’s three to five times higher than what it was before, It is going to have a stagflationary impulse on the

U.S. Trade Representative Greer: China has agreed to remove countermeasures Outcome of China tariff talks ‘pragmatic’ If things don’t work out, China tariffs can go back up Greer sounds like the sad sack in the room. Markets liked the news: ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Massive across the board on trade war relief ForexLive

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The news ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Massive across the board on trade war relief ForexLive European FX news wrap: US, China strike deal to lower tariffs after talks The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the board for today. As such, traders will be sticking to the broader risk mood as the key driver of trading sentiment. After the bustling gains in risk yesterday, we’re seeing things settle down a bit. And that’s also leading to some cooling off in

Business Lending: C&I Loans (Commercial and Industrial loans): Lending standards tightened for firms of all sizes. % of Banks tightening was the highest in more than a year Loan terms also tightened: smaller credit lines, higher premiums, stricter covenants and collateral requirements. Demand weakened significantly across all firm sizes. Key reasons for tightening: uncertain economic

A significant reduction in U.S.-China trade barriers may ease the risk of a severe supply-driven inflation shock. However, Deutsche Bank economists caution that inflation remains persistent enough to keep the Federal Reserve from rushing into rate cuts. While the trade war is de-escalating, “policies are likely to keep inflation at uncomfortably high levels for the

Trump: We achieved a total reset with China Trump with more on China: I think we will have a deal Fed’s Goolbee: Tariffs on China would still have a stagflationary impulse Fed: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices released US April federal budget +258B vs +256B expected ECBs Nagel: We shouldn’t overreact

Both the S&P and the NASDAQ indices surged on April 9 on the rebound from Liberation Day on April 2. For the NASDAQ index the price rose 12.16% on that day. For the S&P index the index rose 9.52%. If April 9 was the largest gain, today’s gains in both those broad indices represent the

The EURUSD moved decisively lower today after breaking below a key support confluence on the 4-hour chart, which included the 200-bar moving average and a swing area between 1.12657 and 1.1273. That breakdown gave sellers the technical green light to extend the move to the downside. The next key target for sellers lies at the

Citigroup economists have moved their forecast for the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut to July, from June. In the wake of the announcement that the US will reduce its 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods to 30% for 90 days Citi expects cuts at each meeting between July and January, totalling 125

Hassett is Trump’s director of the National Economic Council, a senior economic adivser: Rebooting the relationship with China Greer, Bessent will continue talks with China Markets could expect ‘normalization’ of things 24 trade talks lined up over the next weeks Hassett was speaking in an interview on CNBC. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The major US stock indices are sharply higher on US/China tariff news. Over the weekend the US slashed tariffs for the next 90-days on China goods from 145% to 30% inclusive of a 20% tariff due to fentanyl. The news led to sharp buying which did not abate. The broader S&P and Nasdaq indices had

US House Republicans tax bill: Would exempt workers from tips from income and tax with exceptions (through 2028 Includes exemption on workers overtime pay with exceptions Enhanced deduction for senior citizens by $4000 with exceptions Raising cap on state and local tax deduction (SALT deductions) to $30,000 from current $10,000 with exceptions does not include

The NZDUSD has shifted lower after breaking beneath a key support confluence, including the 200-day moving average at 0.5883 and a price floor near that level. The move signals growing bearish momentum as sellers gain control. Support is now found at the swing area between 0.5852 and 0.5860, with the pair testing the low of

BOE Taylor says: We are a long way from the neutral level of interest rates Neutral rate for me is 2.75 – 3% in the UK. Erosion of business confidence in the UK has continued in REC and PMI surveys.. There is a sense of precaution and concernt Tariff shock was bigger than anyone expected.

Goldman Sachs shifts to a stronger Chinese Yuan outlook, now forecasting USD/CNY to reach 7.00 by 12 months, citing Beijing’s preference for currency stability and alternative policy support over depreciation amid tariff stress. Key Points: Stable Fix Signals Policy Intent:Despite high tariffs, the PBoC’s consistent USD/CNY fix indicates a preference for exchange rate stability to

The USDCAD has extended its gains and pushed above the key 1.4000 level, reaching a high of 1.40043. The next upside target comes in at the 200-day moving average at 1.40106, followed by resistance at 1.40268, a prior swing area high. Beyond that, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 2025 high sits

March was -161B Last April was +210B April is always the best month of the US for the US budget due to income tax receipts. Even on those terms it ranks as the second-best April on record. That said, timing shifts around Easter and how the days of the week land in any given month

Last week, I’ve laid out a case where the market could end up being “dead wrong” on interest rates expectations and that scenario is playing out. The 10% baseline tariff rate on UK last week, kind of made me to turn up my nose, but the US-China announcement is much better than everyone expected and

There are many winners in today’s market action but there is a big loser as well: Gold. It’s down $95 to $3228 today as the great decoupling may not happen after all. The news looks bad for gold but I’m carefully watching the technicals. Gold has so far held the May 1 low of $3201

If you’re an executive right now, what are you focused on: tariffs or competing? Capitalism works best when companies have a clear set of rules and can fight for market share. Today’s news is undoubtedly good on tariffs but it’s a 90-day pause, similar to the ‘liberation day’ climb-down. In today’s environment there is so

It has become hard to judge the underlying growth of the economy Labor market conditions mostly stable Supported keeping rates stable at current restrictive level, Fed in a good position to deal with change in macro outlook This is straight out of the Fed choir book. The market is priced for a 45% chance of

The NASDAQ Composite Index has broken back above the 200-day moving average (green line on the chart at 18,320.79) and 100-day moving average (blue line at 18,476.49) —a technical development that marks a shift in the medium-term trend. These MA levels were broken for the last time (to the downside) on March 6 and had

We are going to protect our steel, semiconductor industries, selected medicines Believe China is now serious about halting fentanyl flows into the US We have a mechanism in place to avoid upwards tariffs pressure We want American businesses to be able to sell to China I imagine we will meet (with China) again in the

For the last six weeks, everyone in markets has been contemplating a reordering of world markets. Now, we’re back to where we started in tariff rates and in markets. That has Deutsche Bank wonder: What was the point of all of this? They note that the latest data shows China exports to the US on

Inflation persistence indicators are still too high Slightly worried that medium-term inflation expectations are starting to tick up The BOE might have managed to cut the rates last week but remarks such as these continue to highlight that there’s certainly a strong debate of views within the ranks at the central bank. This article was

ECBs Nagel is on the wires saying: We shouldn’t overreact to individual announcements. Meanwhile, ECBs Escriva says: They must be humble in assessing the current situation. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the weekend talks with U.S. officials as an important first step in stabilising bilateral trade relations, acknowledging that while differences remain, saying frictions are unavoidable. He underscored that the fundamental nature of China-U.S. trade is a mutual win-win, pushing back against zero-sum rhetoric that has recently dominated political discourse.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

One of the main Trump’s goals has been bringing long term interest rates down. The focus was on reducing the deficit because it impacted the long term premium. We’ve heard many times talks of the US being on an “unsustainable path” and in the long-run that leads to either higher taxes or higher “money printing”.

The news out of the China-US trade talks in Switzerland over the weekend is lacking substance, we await the joint statement on Monday, but officials are upbeat: No details on US-China trade talks but both US and China officials are upbeat China says Geneva trade talk meeting a first step; differences &frictions remain; win-win The

The S&P 500 is at the highs of the day, up 3.1% while the Nasdaq is up 4.2% as buying turns into a feeding frenzy. The next mark to watch is the futures overnight high of 5865 as we’re about 6 points from that now. It’s an impressive rally as the early sellers have been

Japan data update. Not the focus. The focus is US-China relations and Trump’s move to lower drug prices to US consumers. While we do not have any details on the US-China trade talks beyond the two side have agreed to meet further, at least its some sort of progress. The two sides will be issuing

Evidence suggests that policy is still restrictive Wage growth is still too high for on target inflation Wages is my main focus when looking for disinflation Further gradual disinflation progress and trade developments made 25 bps rate cut appropriate This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Latest US-China discussions are good news, if reports are accurate. Progress on domestic inflation, not US tariffs, was the main factor behind my rate vote. Trade policy uncertainty will continue until there’s a permanent solution. UK GDP data is volatile, makes it hard to gauge if weakness is due to demand or supply. The US-China

The flight into gold is having a tough time today after the weekend news on tariff relief at least for the next 90 days between the US and China. The price is currently down -$101 or -3.06% at $3224.21. The dollar decline is the largest one-day decline on record. On a percentage basis, the decline

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The problem with this rally is that it was front-run hard. The tide really turned on the market after Bessent’s private comments and the White House private meeting with Walmart, Target, Home Depot and other retailers. A hint of that was that shipping out of China has spiked in the past two weeks. There is

While China is also acknowledging the positive steps taken in seeking a trade deal, the nuance in how either the US or China is selling the narrative is also something important to be wary about. On paper, sure there are things to be optimistic as both sides seek de-escalation. However, the undertone is what will

Major European indices are closing higher on the day. The German DAX closed at a new all-time high at 23551.54. Spain’s Ibex closed at its highest level since 2008. A snapshot of the close levels shows: German DAX +52.21 points or 0.22% at 23551.54. France’s CAC, +106.35 points or 1.37% at 7850.11 UK’s FTSE 100

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1250 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance but the expiries do sit nearby the gap closure level after the pair opened with a gap down today. The dollar is

I think we’ll have a deal China tariffs will go up without a deal, won’t go all the way to 145% All the comments are so far. On Iran/Russia: So far Iran is acting intelligently Iran is being reasonable Believes Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire Here is the latest from Fox Business’ Charlie

Market Sentiment Snapshot for Traders and Investors Today’s financial markets are experiencing significant shifts driven primarily by the recent U.S.-China agreement on tariff reductions. Here is a detailed overview of the current sentiment across key financial instruments: Gold (Bearish) Gold prices have dropped sharply, with futures plunging about 3%. This bearish momentum is largely a

Fundamental Overview Gold ended the last week negatively, as first the positive expectations for the US-UK trade deal, and then for the US-China talks over the weekend, weighed on the precious metal. In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing. But in the

Sector Overview Today’s market is buzzing with positivity, driven by standout performances in the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. The technology sector is seeing remarkable gains, spearheaded by industry giants Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). Meanwhile, the consumer cyclical sector is thriving, with Amazon (AMZN) leading the charge. Technology Advances: Apple, with an impressive increase

PrimeXBT, a regulated multi-asset broker, has announced the launch of its VIP Tiers, a trading-based rewards system designed to lower trading costs for high-volume traders. With discounts of up to 50% now available, the new system brings enhanced flexibility and cost efficiency to trading across a wide range of markets. VIP Tiers are applied automatically

Both sides will move reciprocal/retaliatory tariffs down by 115% Both sides very committed to 90-day pause period (Greer) An effective trade embargo was not sustainable practice for both sides (Greer) Throughout the trade process, we have had a plan in place And now, we have a mechanism for continued talks The consensus this weekend is

Trump is set to talk about pharma at a press conference imminently. The President wrote yesterday about a plan for prescription drugs that would shift costs to other countries. That has pharma companies struggling against a very strong tape today. I don’t see much in the way of macro drivers in the pharma-specific comments but

Phoenix TV is out with the headline, citing a source familiar with the matter. This is also being aired across Twitter/X now but there’s yet to be a more credible source echoing the headline yet. Just be wary of that in case. But if true, that’s a significant reduction as there was some expectation that

The United States and China have agreed to a 90-day suspension of their tariffs, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut duties on American imports from 125% to 10%. Both sides committed to continuing negotiations, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasizing a mutual interest in

Fed: 54 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 45 bps (79% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 50 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 39 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 78 bps (98% probability of rate

The AUDUSD attempted a move higher and outside a swing area with a high at 0.64419. However, once again the high price stalled at the 200-day moving average, located near 0.6458, turning buyers into sellers. The price stalled near that MA on Thursday of last week (the price moved briefly above that level but quickly

Just a heads up as there will be headline risk to watch out for soon enough. Coincidentally, the timing also matches up with when China will normally comment on international affairs. So, do be on the lookout for that as well. This was Bessent’s remarks yesterday on the matter: “I’m happy to report that we

The USDCHF has made a notable technical breakout, moving above a key consolidation area and extending higher toward retracement resistance. On the hourly chart, the price had been confined within a red-box consolidation zone, capped by resistance near 0.8333. After several failed attempts, the pair finally broke above the top of that box and found

Goldman Sachs forecasts USD/CNY to dropping to 7.20 in 3 months 7.10 in six months 7 over the next 12 months Goldman Sachs sees China’s exports remaining strong. “The undervalued levels of the currency, both on a real trade-weighted basis but especially versus the dollar, all point to the possibility for a stronger onshore yuan

The US Dollar has been taking it on the chin for a few months now and eventually it became one of the most crowded trades. In such instances, you should start to get wary and look for inflection points. In the last few weeks, I’ve been highlighting that positive news on the trade front would

We’re negotiating with India right now (on trade) US helped a lot of with India-Pakistan ceasefire Agreement doesn’t cover steel, aluminum, cars or pharma Says he spoke to Tim Cook this morning; Cook will built a lot in the USA Talks in Geneva were friendly We’re not looking to hurt China Will speak to Xi

The USDCAD has moved higher in response to the lower China/US tariffs (or suspension of the tariffs) and the overall USD buying. The price has risen toward a cluse or MAs, swing and retracement targets starting with the: 200 are moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.39874. The 200 day moving average of 1.40106,

The Financial Times is gated: The US and China have worked hard to cobble together something positive from weekend tasks: China says Geneva trade talk meeting a first step; differences &frictions remain; win-win Agreed to agree about how to meet again But the FT with the machinations taking place beneath the surface bonhomie. Chinese companies

US tariffs on China are down to 30% while China tariffs on the US are set at 10%. Even beyond the massive cut in tariffs, 20 percentage points of the US tariffs on China are due to fentanyl and I think there is a path to lowering or eliminating that. The deal is for 90

Today, the calendar is empty on the data front as we will just hear from some central bank members. It would have been a boring day if it wasn’t for the US-China trade talks statement. At 07:00 GMT/03:00 ET, we have the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent briefing on the US-China trade talks held in

Goldman Sachs on crude: “We still expect Brent/WTI prices to edge down and average $60/56 in the rest of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026” Expects solid supply growth outside US shale to weigh further on oil prices This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Disinflation process in underway. Some slack opened up in the labour market. Risks to UK productivity are to the downside. FX rates could be disinflationary if the trend persists. On net, I think tariffs will be disinflationary for the UK, this was a factor in my rate decision. After the US-China news, the policymakers will

Monday will be a light day in terms of scheduled economic events. On Tuesday, Japan will release the BoJ summary of opinions; in the U.K., we’ll get the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In the U.S., the main focus will be on the inflation data. On Wednesday, Australia

Here’s a graphical depiction of the S&P 500 and Trump’s statements about buying stocks in the last few weeks: And now, markets are rallying further as the US and China lower tariffs in favour of discussions – at least for the next 90 days. S&P 500 futures up over 2.5% on the day, we’re slated

Current tariffs level is a floor Now, we have a process in place to avoid further escalation This at least clears things up a bit on their current position at least. As a reminder, the US is now putting a 10% base level tariffs plus 20% tariffs due to the fentanyl issue (30% total) on

Trump viewed 80% as not being an embargo for China We can always go back to 2 April level i.e. 54% tariffs for China Sees a phone call taking place before any meeting between Trump and Xi The current timeline for the status quo is 90 days. So, better get on it. But as mentioned,

Headlines: US to lower tariffs on China, to include a base 10% plus 20% fentanyl levy US-China deal reportedly does not cover de minimis exemption for e-commerce shipments Bessent: We have reached agreement with China on a 90-day pause, moving down tariff levels Greer: We have a constructive path forward to have a positive conversation

US to modify application of the rate of duty on articles of China This will be for an initial period of 90 days China will also suspend its tariffs on the US for an initial period of 90 days Only a 10% base tariffs rate will be applied Risk is ramping up on the headlines

While the news out of the weekend trade talk with China was long on feel goods it was very short on detail. This, on the other hand, appears to be more substantive. Its great news for those in the US reliant on medicines for their health. Trump says he’ll be signing the order on Monday

USD/JPY is now up nearly 1.5% on the day to 147.50 as the dollar is jumping higher across the board. EUR/USD is also marked down by over 1% now to 1.1120 with GBP/USD down 0.8% to test waters back under 1.3200 on the day. This comes with S&P 500 futures bordering on 3% gains while

“DRUG PRICES TO BE CUT BY 59%, PLUS! Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! LOVE, DJT” He still won’t get the rate cuts he’s pushing for This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +1.1% UK FTSE futures +0.4% S&P 500 futures are also up 1.5% on the day, largely holding gains much compared to the dollar from earlier in the day. All eyes will be on Bessent’s brief later at the top of the hour as we also await the joint statement from both US

There was already the opening gap higher from early today as Trump floated “a very good” meeting with China over the weekend. S&P 500 futures were up 1.5% before doubling gains to be up by roughly 3% now. That comes after the joint statement by both sides, confirming the lowering of tariffs by 115% for

Domestic sight deposits CHF 444.8 bn vs CHF 443.1 bn prior Just some light changes in sight deposits in the past week. But the SNB can definitely take in some comfort now from the latest developments today surely. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, sees the longest streak of net inflow this year so far Bank of England speakers Monday: Lombardelli, Greene, Mann, Taylor Japan PM Ishiba: Autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2066 (vs. estimate at 7.2429) Goldman Sachs forecasts

Nasdaq Analysis for Today: Bulls Take Charge Post US-China Trade Talks Current Nasdaq Futures Price: $20,558 (+2.1% from Friday’s close) Market Context After US-China Trade Talks Nasdaq futures are bullishly positioned today following moderately positive news from the weekend’s US-China trade talks. The optimistic sentiment has investors seeking opportunities to “buy the dip” rather than

There’s a chance if we can open up trade to China, we could have more fair trade towards the US China has not yet rebalanced towards a consumption-oriented economy And that’s the end of the press conference. S&P 500 futures are up 2.8% on the day, up from around 1.5% gains before the joint statement

The de minimis exemption is a rule which allowed for certain e-commerce shipments of goods at $800 or less to enter duty-free. The $800 is the threshold amount so to speak. Any shipments below that will not incur import charges basically. This allowed a supposed “loophole” for online retailers – particularly fast fashion from China

This agreement is about reciprocal tariffs, which are now at 10% each We ended up with a result that is very good for the US and China There was no discussion on currency (Bessent) It is the first time that the Chinese understood the US’ position on fentanyl (Bessent) We are leaving with a very

South Korean initial exports data for May This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The times listed below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0800/0400 Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli delivers speech at King’s Business School 1030/0630 Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaks on a panel at the BoE’s Bank Watchers’ conference 2025 at King’s College Business School 0850 /1250 Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Both the US and China are making upbeat comments on trade talk progress, but details are sparse of course. Its not bad

When Trump talks something up, you can bet that there’s always going to be exaggeration to the story. Not least with talks with China, we’ve already gotten a precedent for that back in 2019. This time around is no different of course as he said that both sides “had a very good meeting” over the

Trump teasing a big tweet to come on his own social media app: We can only guess what this might be about. Some sort of ****coin launch? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan PM Ishiba: Autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters Economy minister Akazawa chimes in similarly: Security and forex are not part of trade discussions This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crypto media with the report: Goldman Sachs is now the largest holder of shares of IBIT, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, after boosting its holdings by 28% over the course of 2025’s first quarter. IBIT’s 20-day streak of net inflows is the longest such streak for any spot bitcoin ETF in 2025, drawing in over $5

Place your bets! US equity futures re-open. ES indication: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin Analysis for Today: tradeCompass Highlights Critical Levels Near $104,265 Today’s Bitcoin Futures (BTC) are trading at approximately $104,265, slightly below today’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at $104,530, signaling mild intraday bearish momentum. However, since the trading session is still developing, this early bearish signal remains tentative. tradeCompass Levels for May 12, 2025 Bullish

The US dollar is higher against both yen and euro in early FX trading (its VERY early, just after 5.20am in Tokyo and 4.20 in Singapore and Hong Kong). The US and China met in talks over the weekend in Switzerland. Nothing of substance has been announced by either side. They’ve said they’ll have announcements

Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng said a joint statement would be released in Geneva on Monday. Vice-Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said it would contain “good news for the world”. As yet I haven’t found a scheduled time for the release of this expected joint statement. What we have had so far from official statements has been

UK data – The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) employment intentions gauge fell from +13 to +8, the lowest level on record excluding the COVID-19 period Large private-sector employers were the main contributors to the decline, reflecting broader uncertainty. CIPD’s economist says hiring reluctance reflects weak business confidence amid rising costs and global

April 2025 inflation data from China was slipped out over the weekend while everyone was looking at Geneva (US-China initial trade talks) CPI: -0.1% y/y (expected -0.1%, prior -0.1%) +0.1% m/m (prior -0.4%) Core (ex food and energy) unchanged at +0.5% y/y PPI -2.7% y/y (expected -2.8%, prior -2.5%) PPI has been in deflation for

ICYMI, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson announcement on Sunday: Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend and deliver a speech at the opening ceremony of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in Beijing on May 13 Xi doesn’t speak publicly as often as Trump. This article was

“Hope”. That four-letter word. Globex is reopening soon, at the top of the hour. While its still very early the US dollar has been marked generally higher higher: There is still some time for a pre-open pump though: Trump says he is about to make “one of the most important and impactful” tweet ever! This

TRADER-UPDATE: Trump Tweets “Great Progress” in U.S.-China Trade Talks – But Final Deal Remains Uncertain Donald Trump has tweeted enthusiastically about recent trade discussions with China in Switzerland, calling them “friendly but constructive” and indicating that “great progress” has been made. While such optimism from Trump could be viewed positively, prompting market participants to anticipate

This sounds pretty good. US and Chinese negotiators are meeting again tomorrow so we’re likely to get some details before the weekly open. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier today there was a concerning escalation with Indian cruise missiles hitting Pakistan’s Nur Khan Airbase. Earlier, there was also an Indian military facility in Beas hit by Pakistan, supposedly destroying a storage facility for Brahmos missiles. I can’t confirm any of those reports but it looks like cooler heads have prevailed with both nuclear

The key events releases for next week include US CPI and PPI data, US retail sales: Australian employment data and UK GDP: Tuesday, May 13 GBP: Claimant Count Change (Forecast: 22.3K; Prev: 18.7K) USD: Core CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.3%; Prev: 0.1%) USD: CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.3%; Prev: -0.1%) USD: CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.4%; Prev: 2.4%)

According to Reuters,: Iran is preparing to send Russia launchers for short range ballistic missiles. That is a negative for two reasons. For one, the US is trying to put a governor on Iran and have them get more in line. The second isssue is the US and Trump administration is getting increasingly frustrated with

Canada April employment change +7.4K versus +2.5K expected Fed’s Williams: Expect growth to slow considerably, inflation and unemployment higher Fed’s Williams: Now is a time of great uncertainty and change Williams: Policy is in a good place and the Fed has time Trump says ‘many trade deals in the hopper’ Hassett: The UK trade deal

US yields moved modestly higher for the 2nd consecutive week. 2-year yield 3.883%, up 6.1 basis points for the week. That comes after a 6.6 basis point gain last week. 5-year yield 3.994%, up 7.7 basis points for the week. Last week yields rose 4.0 basis points. 10-year yield 4.382% up 7.4 basis points for

Some will be higher than 10% Could be exceptions We have to make a great deal with China He’s given a number to Bessent on how low he is willing to go Trump has front-run his own negotiation here to some extent. We’ll just have to see how it goes on the weekend and what

Polls have shown that Greenlanders are dead-against joining the USA but the Trump administration is looking to find another way to pull the island closer, according to a Reuters report. While the precise details of COFA agreements – which have only ever been extended to the small island nations of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and

Oil rig count -5 at 474 Nat Gas rig count unchanged at 101 Total rig count -6 at 578 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US crude oil futures are settling the day at $61.02. That’s $1.11 or 1.85%. For the trading day. The high was at $61.42. The low was at $59.92. The price moved up $3.07 or 4.46% for the trading week but it wasn’t until after reaching a low of $55.39 which was just above the low

The major indices closed mixed of the day and modestly lower for the week. A snapshot of the closing levels it shows: Dow industrial average fell -119.07 points or -0.29% at 41249.38. S&P index fell -4.03 points or -0.07% at 5659.91. NASDAQ index rose 0.78 points or 0.0% at 17928 .92. Russell 2000 fell-3.34 points

In the European session, we have a pretty empty agenda with just a couple of low tier data releases that won’t be market-moving. In the American session, we get the Canadian Employment report which is expected to show 2.5K jobs added in April and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.8% vs. 6.7% prior.

Nasdaq Futures Analysis for Today – May 9, 2025 Current Price: 20,200 Bias: Range-bound, with key reversal levels to monitor Today’s session is shaped by caution ahead of this weekend’s expected developments in U.S.–China trade negotiations. With uncertainty in the air and Friday’s typical low-volatility tone, the Nasdaq futures are likely to remain range-bound unless

Credit Agricole maintains an above-consensus medium-term bullish outlook on the USD, expecting a recovery in H2 2025 and 2026 driven by supportive fiscal policy, easing financial conditions, and sticky inflation. While some investors argue structural headwinds could undermine the dollar, the bank sees these risks as overstated. Key Points: Near-Term Recovery Drivers: Credit Agricole sees

Earlier this week, AUDUSD broke above a key swing area and the upper boundary of a consolidation range dating back to April 15, moving as high as 0.65135. The bullish breakout included a move above the 200-day moving average at 0.64587, signaling strong buying interest. However, momentum faded. Following the Fed rate decision on Wednesday,

Tariffs to lead to higher inflation and lower growth in US and abroad. Trump tariffs are without modern precedent. Given economic strength, monetayr policy is in a good position. I’m concerned that tariffs will lead to higher unemployment. Economic outlook clouded by trade policies that have increased uncertainty, hurt consumers and business sentiment. These are

At least one person got a new job in Canada in April — Mark Carney — today we will get a better sense of the economy he inherited with the April jobs report. There are clear signs of a slowdown in the Canadian economy with a drop in confidence and I’m particularly worried about falling

ICYMI, on Thursday the U.S. Treasury announced it will launch a fast track process to encourage investment from allied and partner nations. A “Known Investor” portal will be introduced to allow foreign investors to submit information to CFIUS in advance of a formal filing. The initiative will begin as a pilot program and expand over

NZDUSD attempted a downside break today, falling below key swing support and the 200-day moving average 0.58836, but after reaching a low of 0.5869, the price quickly rebounded, disappointing the sellers. The price is now showing signs of stabilization with the buyers pushing back higher. Sellers had their shot below 0..5883 to 0.58927. They missed.

Fed’s Barkin is starting to speak and says: Consumer spending and business investment still very solid Barkin is not a voting member until 2027 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The German DAX has completed its lap from the March 6 high to the April 7 low and back to the March 6 high. We run to the downside was a -21.245% decline The pair moved above that high at 23475, and in trading today reached a new intraday high price of 23543.27. The price

Hassett is on TV at the same time saying there are 24 deals that are close. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the video above, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to kickstart the US forex trading day. What levels are in play and why. The Fed officials can now speak after the Fed decision on Wednesday: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said first-quarter growth data reflected frontloading of activity ahead of

Via Reuters polling expectations China’s export growth likely slowed to 1.9% y/y in April, sharply down from 12.4% in March (the March export surge was partly due to exporters rushing shipments ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes), as Trump’s new tariffs took effect. The range of expectations varied from down 3.5% to a rise of 7.0%.

German DAX futures +0.3% UK FTSE futures +0.4% S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.1% following the gains yesterday, though the run higher in Wall Street was rather middling in the end. Looking to the day ahead, all eyes will be on any headlines in the build up to US-China talks over the weekend. You

Wages data from Japan for March 2025 showed overtime salaries fell at the fastest pace in almost a year. total earnings +2.1% y/y (expected +2.3%, prior +3.1%) overtime pay -1.1% y/y (prior +2.4%) (overtime pay is often seen as an indicator of business actiivty, ie weakening in this case) inflation adjusted, ‘real’ wages -2.1% y/y

The Canada’s April 2025 jobs report showed a modest employment gain of 7.4K, beating the 2.5K forecast but coming off a sharp decline of 32.6K the prior month. The headline unemployment rate rose to 6.9%—above the 6.8% expected and the highest since 2021—partly due to a slight rise in labor force participation. Full-time employment rebounded

Trump will not unilaterally bring down tariffs on China 80% was a number Trump threw out there 10% baseline tariff will remain for UK 145% was a “thrown out” number too. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The labor market has proved to be resilient We want to get an idea of what the tariff policies will be Things are in a good place It’s hard to speculate what the Fed will do If the economy weakens more than expected it would call for deeper rate cuts The details on tariffs do

Markets on Edge as U.S.-China Tariff Talks Loom — and Limited Progress May Disappoint Investors Investors are entering the weekend with caution as U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled, with expectations centered around potential tariff reductions. Markets have partially priced in a move from the current 145% peak tariff rate on Chinese imports to something in

White House Navarro is saying: UK deal offers template on how they are going to proceed. Going to take good care of Boeing US – UK digital services terms still in negotiations. They will have an alternative arrangement with the UK on steel Asked about the EU says retaliation is a mistake The EU negotiations

A new Pope has been elected. Let me guess…Pres. Trump will make a joke, and JD Vance and Howard Lutnick will laugh. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It is being reported that India is offering to slash its tariffs gap with the US to below 4% (currently 13%) in exchange for an exemption to Trump’s tariffs. To achieve that, India is said to be offering to reduce duties to zero on 60% of tariff lines in the first phase of the deal.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

US VP Vance: US would walk away from Russia/Ukraine talks if Russia not engage in good faith Trump is right about Jerome Powell. Powell way too late in helping fight back against some trade deals Meanwhile, German PM Merz and Trump agree in phone call on the need to quickly resolve trade disputes. This according

Talks with Americans encouraging Have the impression the US is looking for tailor-made solutions with countries Pause on tariffs not to be lifted during negotiations Today the American side ‘clearly committed’ to accelerating talks Switzerland does not subsidize industry, but other countries may, these are the points the US is interested in Switzerland is now

Amritsar is a city of 1.4 million in the north of the country close to Pakistan. Reuters reports hearing four blasts in the city in a sign of the escalating conflict. Gold prices are up $37 to $3342 today in what’s been a very volatile week for the precious metal. This article was written by

Westpac forecast RBNZ rate cut of 25bp in May and 25bp cut in July NZD/USD barely changed, circa 0.5902. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US-UK trade deal agreement stole the spotlight yesterday but it hardly was what led Wall Street to rally. The framework for the deal lacked meaningful details but is at least a step in the right direction. Instead, the most important headline was arguably these remarks by Trump: TRUMP: BETTER GO OUT AND BUY STOCKS

Unclear how tariffs policy will shake out See some upside risk to inflation from tariffs Economy has been resilient so far Economic health gives Fed time to make progress on inflation On the headline remark, she’s referring to this here. However, this frontloading hasn’t really shown up in other forms of data surprisingly. So, that

USDCHF remains confined within a well-defined trading range after failed breakout attempts on both sides of a trading range going back April 23rd this week. On Wednesday, the pair dipped below the range floor at 0.8195, reaching a low of 0.8185, but momentum quickly faded and the move was reversed. Today, the price pushed above

I’ve been briefed on about 24 other deals that are close Markets will see that the new rules aren’t horribly disruptive Everything that’s been going on in Switzerland is positive for us, we’re seeing respect on both sides The UK model is the one everyone is shooting for I think you’re going to see a

Limited economic reaction to tariffs partly reflects expectations of looser BOE policy Should not neglect longer-term upward pressures on inflation from wages “Careful” rate cuts should be understood to represent being alert, agile to economic changes There is still some way to go on disinflation This is a rather soft defense of his position to

Coincident index 116.0 Prior 117.3 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like negotiations to end the Ukraine war are slowly falling apart but that could be an illusion as negotiations are always the toughest at the end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Expect growth to slow considerably, inflation and unemployment higher. We are focused on keeping inflation as close to target as possible. Key to think in scenarios in times of uncertainty. Factors keeping the long-run neutral rate low are still in place. I still see the long-run neutral rate as quite low. The markets are very

Fair to say that uncertainty around tariffs have raised risks to higher inflation, lower growth Growth has been strong over the last year and remains so today This just continues from his earlier remarks here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Now is a time of great uncertainty and change. Central bank independence delivers better outcomes. No comments on monetary policy or economic outlook. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview The stock market today presents a mixed tableau of sector performances, with electric vehicles taking center stage. Tesla (TSLA) leads the charge in the auto manufacturer space with a robust gain of 6.40%. This significant upswing is indicative of bullish sentiment surrounding the company, possibly fueled by positive sales figures or advancements in

EURUSD broke below a key floor area yesterday near 1.1256–1.1265 and is now retesting that level from the underside (see red numbered circles).This area is also where the 61.8% of the range since 2020 high is found (at 1.1271) and the July 2023 high is at 1.12754). More recently, this zone, acted as a support

The Fed blackout is over and the floodgates have opened but Waller is apring us. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is extending higher as dollar selling gathers momentum. Stocks are lower with the S&P and Nasdaq indices now down -0.10%. The US yields are lower with the 10-year now down -2.0 basis points. The 2 year is down -5.0 basis points. The GBPUSD broke below a consolidation zone between 1.3232 and 1.3241 earlier

Headlines: Trump says that 80% tariffs on China “seems right” Trump says that China should open up its market to the US India reportedly offers to cut tariffs gap by two-thirds to seal trade deal with the US How have interest rates expectations changed after the first trade deal? Fed’s Barr: Monetary policy is in

That’s a different tone than we heard from Powell. Bostic has been a hawk but he’s shifting here, evidently. It’s not prudent to adjust policy amid uncertainty I’ll keep an eye out for more headlines. The US dollar is rebounding after an earlier dip. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs now expects BoE to hold interest rates at the June meeting (Thursday, 19 June) vs prior forecast of a 25 bp cut. Expects BoE to cut rates at every meeting from August 2025 and reach 2.75% terminal rate in March 2026 The Bank cut yesterday: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to

“80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US labour market is stable, close to maximum employment. Past two recoveries suggest 3.5% unemployment sustainable. She delivered a very comprehensive speech on the topic of “Assessing Maximum Employment” here. Such speeches are always a learning experience for the newcomers. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

AUD popped above 0.6400 after better than expected China exports data … be careful folks China January – April yuan denominated exports +7.5% y/y Goldman Sachs expects Bank of England hold at the June meeting China Vice Foreign Minister Hua: On US trade talks … ‘come on. We have no fear.’ US Treasury to establish

The USDJPY is pushing higher today, supported by rising U.S. yields and a broader move higher in equities. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 6.2 basis points to 4.339%, providing a tailwind for the pair. From a technical perspective, the price has now moved above its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, which comes

US stocks are set to open higher. Shares of banking on trade deals to come. US and China will meet in Switzerland. Pres. Trump said that 80% tariff seems about right (down from 145%). Realistically, 80% is still too high and will likely lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment as small businesses go out

Crude oil futures are settling at $59.91, up $1.84 or 3.17%. The low price today reached $57.77. The high reached $60.02. Technically, the price is closing above the 100/200 hour MAs at $58.30 and $59.15. Getting and staying above those MAs gives the buyers some hope with the 38.2% of the move down from the

“CHINA SHOULD OPEN UP ITS MARKET TO USA — WOULD BE SO GOOD FOR THEM!!! CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!” Is this perhaps a hint of what he is going to put his focus on today? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Our commitment to the 2% inflation target is unwavering. It is good we have a diversity of views on MPC. We will use scenarios as vehicles for exploring risks around the baseline and accomodating differences of views on the committee. The latest choice of BoE scenarios does not mean inflation risk skewed in one direction.

Fed: 68 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 56 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 56 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (54% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 100 bps (99% probability of rate

Taking all stake continues to be the starting point for negotiations with the US government We are presenting a range of proposals in talks with the US government CFIUS expected to make a recommendation to US Steel deal to Trump by 21 May A decision by Trump is expected by 5 June At least now

Our policy right now is moderately restrictive. The labour market is stable and has been resilient. Q1 GDP showed the real side of the economy is resilient. Scenarios are important amid high degrees of uncertainty. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The funny thing about wonk economists is that they rarely look past the math. With 145% tariffs on China (or today’s Trump-floated number of 80%), they crunch the numbers and trade with China essentially stops. They run that through their models and that spits out assumptions around economic growth and inflation. It was the same

Prior was -32.6K Unemployment rate +6.9% vs. 6.8% expected Prior unemployment 6.7%. Full-time employment +31.5K vs -32.6K last month part-time employment -24.2K vs. +29.5k last month. Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.2% last month. Average hourly wages permanent employees 3.5% vs 3.5% y/ last month Unrounded unemployment 6.875% vs 6.715% prior Manufacturing employment -31K Total hours

On Thursday: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, as expected BOE governor Bailey: Interest rates are not on auto-pilot BOE governor Bailey: Don’t know what to expect from UK-US trade deal for now Coming up at 0840 GMT / 0440 US Eastern time on Fridat #dat: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey

US Commerce Sec Lutnick was speaking in a Fox interview: We want a trade deal from a big country from Asia I am focused on big countries for the next trade deals The UK deal helps ease reliance on the China supply chain a bit Earlier from the Com Sec: Lutnick says the best any

It will be an interesting weekend for the markets. Japan is most clever at protecting its own markets. Countries lining up to talk trade with the US. The EU very high on the priority list in trade talks. VAT tax in Europe is a problem for the US. The weekend risk here is high for

China’s semiconductor foundry, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), will closely monitor the impact of tariffs on demand warned of uncertain demand and trade-related risks projecting a potential Q2 revenue decline of up to 6% While U.S. tariffs provided a modest lift in orders, Co-CEO Zhao Haijun noted the overall effect was limited. The company remains

Japan finance minister Kato headline crossing: Not appropriate to lower consumption tax This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Will expand domestic demand, stabilise expectations Will maintain ample liquidity To grasp the strength and pace of policy implementation with flexibility Will keep prices at reasonable levels Will further improve framework of interest rate adjustment To maintain yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable, balanced level These are the usual volley of comments by the

80% tariff on China seems right. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China is considering banning pre-sales of homes, requiring developers to sell only completed properties to reduce risks and stabilise the housing market. The proposed reform is part of a “new model” of real estate development being formulated by the central government, though details are still being finalised. The rule would apply only to future land

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 mark. Amid a firmer dollar, the expiries here could help to act as a bit of a floor for price action before we get to US trading. That is considering the

The Catholic Church has elected American Robert Prevost, 69, as its new leader. He is the first American and the first native-English speaker to be named Pope but also speaks Spanish, Italian, French and Portuguese and can read Latin and German. He has taken the name Leo. Prevost headed the Vatican Dicastery for Bishops, which

Fed’s Kugler Flags Diverging Forces: Tariffs May Fuel Inflation While Weak Demand Slows Growth Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler highlighted the complex economic picture facing policymakers, noting that while headline GDP contracted by 0.3%, private domestic final purchases (PDFP) — a key gauge of consumer and business activity — grew at a solid 3%, signaling

A UK Official is commenting on the US/UK trade deal: Deal with the US is not a finished trade agreement, but it is substantive We have got more serious work to do. On sectorial up front, there are vital winds for UK on steel, autos, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace. Got some reassurance on movie tariffs. There

But if I go to the White House, I want to have a package, solution In other words, there’s really not much to talk about for now between the EU and the US on any deal. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In overall terms, the numbers here were much better than expected as China exports in particular held up. However, the devil is always in the details. China’s exports to the US actually fell by nearly 18% on the month from March to April. So, what gives? It is basically this: How China has been preparing

The numbers are here, exports did not plunge as feared. They were lower than in March, but the pipelines were jammed full in March ahead of more Trump tariffs. April figures, in US dollar terms: exports +8.1% y/y Putting on my sceptical hat for a minute …. There are sometimes questions about the veracity of

Standard Chartered is reconsidering its US$120,000 BTC forecast for Q2 2025: “I apologise that my USD120k Q2 target may be too low,” Stan Chart see the crypto heading higher, citing: strategic asset reallocation away from US assets accumulation by whales dominant story for Bitcoin has changed … it was correlation to risk assets … It

The times listed below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 0955/0555 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market” before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland 1045/0645 Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Maximum Employment” before the Reykjavik Economic Conference 1230/0830 Federal

Economic outlook clouded by trade politics that have increased uncertainty Tariffs to lead to higher US inflation, lower growth starting later this year Fed may be in a difficult position if both inflation and unemployment rise Equally concerned tariffs will lead to higher unemployment as economy slows Tariffs could create persistent upward pressure on inflation

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost across the board yesterday on positive expectations about the first trade deal that eventually was revealed to be with the UK. Trump announced that tariffs on cars and steel will be lowered but the most important part was that the 10% “global tariff” will remain in place. The

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.6% France CAC 40 +0.6% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% US futures are also keeping steadier, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.1%. The US-UK trade deal agreement yesterday helped to steady the ship but it was mostly comments from Trump that caused markets to rally.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

If this trade deal with the UK was announced two or three weeks ago, I would have said that it’s really good for the markets and would have been very upbeat on risk sentiment. The context is a bit different now, in my opinion. Recall back in the middle of April, Fed’s Waller outlined his

Crypto is adding to its gains. Its been sideways since January but the news for it has improved since April. Reports just now of fresh Bitcoin buying from El Salvador by the folks at Zero Hedge, the country is a keen adopter of BTC. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is as what you’d expect from China ahead of the talks tomorrow. The question now is, are we going to see the US drop its tariff levels before both sides sit down at the table over the weekend? It’s certainly a consideration, particularly after this report here. That will help to at least try

Eurozone inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US. Geopolitics since the starts of the year is bad news for the economy. There is downward pressure on inflation. Need to watch for China goods rerouting to Europe. ECB June projections may be a little bit worse. June ECB cut is needed. There is no central

The usual commentary is continuing by the ECB for the time being. Traders are pricing in a ~90% probability of a rate cut for their next policy decision in June. So, there’s not much change to the rhetoric and narrative for now. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China Vice Foreign Minister Hua: United States cannot ‘sustain what it is doing’ in trade policy China has ‘full confidence’ in its ability to manage US trade issues China does not want a ‘war of any kind with any other country’ China has ‘full capability to overcome difficulties’ amid trade war ‘Ordinary people’ in China

2345 GMT / 1945 US Eastern time: Participation by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel in panel discussion at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference – Finishing the Job and New Challenges’ at Harvard University This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Lost amid the noise on tariffs was the news from TSLA that its officially canning the Cybertruck range extender battery. Tesla confirmed to Cybertruck owners that it’s “no longer planning to sell” the $16,000 battery pack Tesla will issue refunds for any deposit put down by customers The range extender was problematic from the get-go:

The New York Post reports that the US is weighing a plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% next week from 145%. “US officials are discussing a proposal to lower President Trump’s punishing levy on China goods to between 50% and 54% as they begin what promise to be lengthy talks to

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: if a country opens its markets the best it can hope for is a 10% US tariff Deescalation with China is Bessent’s goal in talks says favours Trumps plan for raising the tax rate on high earners WH Trade Adviser Navarro says: US is not getting rid of the tariffs on

Japan March 2025 household spending +2.1% y/y (expected +0.2%, prior -0.5%) +0.4% m/m (expected -0.5%) Improvement in this data point. Comments from a Japan govt official: See some signs of consumption recovering Consumers still being frugal on food spending We also had wages data from Japan, not so hot: Japan data – March Labor Cash

April trade data from China should begin to show tariff impacts. Eyes will be on Switzerland this weekend for the first tentative steps towards a trade deal between the US and China. The latest: White House weighing plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% – report This snapshot from the ForexLive economic

Major US indices close higher for the second consecutive day VP Vance:US would walk away from Russia/Ukraine talks if Russia not engaging in good faith White House weighing plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% – report White House Navarro: To the EU, retaliation is a mistake Crude oil futures settle at

Bloomberg (gated) report on China buying nearly US$1bn in agricultural product from Argentina instead of the US: China agreement with exporters in Argentina non-binding letter of intent signed Bloomberg cite two people familiar with the matter China is already Argentina’s biggest buyer of unprocessed soybeans. Some Friday muzak: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China January – April yuan-denominated exports +7.5% y/y, imports -4.2% y/y ** For April alone, yuan-denominated exports +9.3% (prior +13.5%) … this is a good result given the tariff impact, if the data is correct imports +0.8% y/y (prior -3.5%) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD has also broke to the downside as focus turns to the EU as a potential whipping dog for Trump. Technically, the prices also making a key break below support. The low price going back to April 15 and May 1 at 1.1265 was broken. Before that, the 61.8% retracement of the trading range

High yield 4.819% WI level at the time of the auction 4.812% Tail +0.7 bps vs 6 month average of -0.3 bps Bid to cover 2.31X vs 6 -month avg. of 2.45X DIrects 27.21% vs 6 month average of 22.3% Indirects 58.88% vs 6 month average of 63.9% AUCTION GRADE: D+ Domestic demand is higher.

The major US stock indices are closing the day higher but well off their high levels of the day. Dow industrial average rose to 54.48 points or 0.62% at 41368.45. At session highs, the index was up 659.25 points S&P index rose 32.66 points or 0.58% at 5663.94. At session highs, the index is up

The US dollar stormed ahead today, particularly USD/JPY which is now up 210 pips to 145.93. Some thoughts on what’s driving the move: 1) A delayed reaction to the Fed Powell was hawkish yesterday and the market has priced out about 40 basis points in Fed rate cuts in the past two weeks. 2) The

The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but the surprise came in the vote split. The decision passed with a 7-2-0 vote, falling short of the anticipated unanimous 9-0-0. Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden pushed for a deeper 50 basis point cut, while Catherine Mann and Huw

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the key components shows: Tail -0.3 basis points Bid to Cover 2.45X Directs (domestic buyers) 22.3% Indirects (international buyers) 63.9% Dealers 13.8% The last auction had a high yield of 4.813%. The current

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

“The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other

Donald Trump is not known for underselling. Here are some of the details: UK has committed to fast-tracking US goods imports Agreement increases access for beef and ethanol UK will reduce non-tariff barriers Final details will be written up in the coming weeks I think China wants to make a deal very badly too We’re

Well there it is. Trump is talking like 10% is the floor, answering a big question in the markets. Now Trump often says one thing and does another but that doesn’t bode well for making many deals. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

“Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and “eggs”) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF “TOO LATE!” ENJOY!” We all expected Trump to be

Similar to February, it’s a case of focusing on voting intentions when it comes to the BOE reaction. The central bank moved to cut the bank rate by 25 bps to 4.25% as expected. However, the vote split is what is raising eyebrows as we look to digest the situation. Dhingra and Taylor voting for

Today’s Market Overview The US stock market presents a mixed picture today, with notable performances in the consumer cyclical and communication services sectors. Giants like Tesla and Google are emerging as the day’s winners, while the healthcare sector faces significant setbacks. 📈 Consumer Cyclical & Communication Services Tesla (TSLA) shines: Tesla has surged by 1.97%,

The market is waiting for the announcement of a UK-US trade deal at 10 am ET but the details so far leaving the market disappointed. The UK FTSE 100 has fallen into negative territory after earlier trading higher. A report from CNN indicated this is a vague ‘deal’ that leaves on the 10% US tariffs

The USDCAD is moving higher after a week or so of gradually lower lows, all of which were quickly reversed, signaling that sellers lacked conviction (see lows on the chart above). That dynamic shifted more definitively after the FOMC rate decision, which fueled broad USD buying and helped push the pair above the 100- and

I posted a summary of the Bank of Japan March meeting minutes here earlier: BoJ minutes: Bank will raise rates if economic and price projections realised In that post you’ll find some points being made in favour of staying on hold, and other points being made saying the Bank needs to able to respond quickly

The dollar is gaining some slight ground but gold is among the more noticeable movers to start the session. The precious metal is now down 0.7% on the day and touching a low of $3,336. That is running close to the 100-hour moving average (red line) of $3,330. Keep above and the near-term bias stays

The USDCHF continues to consolidate between clearly defined range extremes with resistance near 0.8333 and support at 0.81952. Yesterday’s price action briefly pushed below that lower boundary, reaching a low of 0.8185 during the FOMC-related volatility, but buyers quickly stepped in, rejecting the downside break. Currently, the pair is rotating around its 100- and 200-hour

From the day before: China president Xi to visit Moscow later today This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters (may be gated) with the report: Ukraine is starting to consider a shift away from the U.S. dollar, possibly linking its currency more closely to the euro amid the splintering of global trade and its growing ties to Europe, Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi told Reuters. Potential accession to the European Union, a “strengthening

The UK is now offering up its spin on the deal: Aluminum and steel tariffs reduced to zero US deal gives unprecedented access for British farmers to US market Will remove UK tariffs of US ethanol UK has market access on beef with a tariff-free quota of 13,000 metric tonnes UK and US have agreed

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1300 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance though, so the impact might not be too striking. But amid a bit of a wait until we get to Trump’s trade deal

Disinflation in domestic prices, wage pressures is continuing Expect gradual easing of inflation pressure Overall impact of tariffs on inflation is still uncertain Following developments of UK-US trade deal closely I haven’t been briefed about the details of the matter however Hopes for the trade deal to reduce uncertainty Need to watch carefully for second-round

The EURUSD is trading back to the downsideas sellers leaned early against key resistance levels (near 100 and 200 hour MA) and instead pushed toward a critical support zone. The price has now returned to a key support area between 1.1265 and 1.12754, a zone that previously acted as a springboard for upside moves. This

A note from economists at Goldman Sachs, via a Bloomberg (gated) article. In summary: Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast for US core PCE inflation (the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy): 3.8% at the end of 2025 (from their previous estimate of 3.5%) 2.7% at the end of 2026 (previous estimate 2.3%)

Important to not just look at the trade impact But important to also look at how financial markets have reacted to trade developments This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -1.3% German industrial output bounced back after the drop in February, with increases seen across all main groups. The production of consumer goods and capital goods each rose by 4.9%, and production of intermediate goods by 1.1%. That if offset by a drop in energy production of 1.8% on the month. This article was

Would like to see China opened up. Expects a friendly meeting with China Says he believes discussions will be substantive with China China wants to do something, they have to We will see where this goes but it sounds like tariffs could be lowered this weekend. How much though? “Well, it could be. I mean,

Risk assets are running today and crypto is flying. Bitcoin is up 4.7% to $101K in the first break above that level since early February. Ethereum is up nearly 15%. The market likes what it heard about Trump’s trade deal with the UK. The President was also upbeat on talks with China and said they

Report from the Telegraph: This will be part of a 12-month temporary deal ahead of what sides hope is a comprehensive deal Will cut beef tariffs close to zero Tariff on UK steel exports will also be lowered, but rate not finalized The announcement is running late but it looks like these are the important

Fundamental Overview The Fed yesterday kept its usual neutral stance and Fed Chair Powell didn’t offer anything in terms of forward guidance citing elevated uncertainty. The event didn’t move gold since there wasn’t anything new. What impacted gold negatively was Trump saying that he would make a big announcement concerning a major trade deal today.

year-head at 3.63% vs 3.58% prior Three-year inflation +3.2% vs 3.0% prior Five-year inflation +2.7% vs 2.9% prior Three-year ahead expected inflation highest since July 2022 Measures of labor market, income and earnings expectations all declined That last bullet point is worrisome. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower yesterday and moved back below the 200 day MA (currently at 0.64608) and the rising 100 hour MA (blue line currently at the same 0.64608 level). The fall stalled near the 200 hour MA into the close and rebounced in the early Asian Pacific session. The price move higher earlier in

Prior was +0.5% Wholesale sales +0.6% vs +1.9% prior (revised to +2.0%) Something isn’t adding up with the huge surge in US imports. They’re not showing up in consumption, re-export or inventories. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Trump trade deal with the UK is igniting stocks with the major indices all up by over 1.4%. The snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average is trading up 576 points or 1.40% at 41688.78. S&P index is up 78.23 points or 1.40% at 5709. NASDAQ index is trading up 317 points

Prior was +2.2% (revised to 2.0%) Productivity prelim -0.8% vs -0.7% expected Prior productivity +1.5% (revised to +1.7%) There is an inflationary impulse in these numbers but it’s a tough report to extrapolate from because it’s choppy and more of a lagging indicator than a leading one. This article was written by Adam Button at

Prior €17.7 billion The German trade surplus expanded slightly in March as exports were seen up 1.1% on the month while imports fell by 1.4% on the month. Overall, the foreign trade balance closed with a surplus of €21.1 billion and that is roughly the same as in March last year (a surplus of €20.5

Space and Time, the Microsoft-backed blockchain for zero-knowledge (ZK)-proven data, is live on its public, permissionless mainnet. Space and Time is designed to deliver ZK-proven data to smart contracts to power a new generation of data-driven crypto applications. It indexes data from other major blockchains, including Ethereum, and stores it across a decentralized network of

But as per the latest report here, it seems that the so-called deal is just an agreement for negotiations to begin. It will just involve a framework for discussions over the coming weeks/months. So, we’ll see about that. But as always, one can expect Trump to talk up a big game and that is keeping

A reporter asked Trump: “Are you open to pulling back your tariffs in order to get China to the negotiating table?” Trump replied : “No.” I wouldn’t take this at face value. What’s he going to say? Yes he is? Before the meeting in Switzerland on the weekend? You don’t have to have studied The

“This should be a very big and exciting day for the United States of America and the United Kingdom. Press Conference at The Oval Office, 10A.M. Thank you!” Again, that will be at 1400 GMT. We all already know now that it will be an agreement to the terms for a trade deal i.e. framework

US needs to be prepared to revoke unilateral tariffs. As a reminder, US and China will hold talks on trade this weekend in Switzerland although the expectations have been set low by the US Treasury Secretary Bessent as he said that it’s more about de-escalation than negotiations for a trade deal. Trump said that he

Russia and China have released a joint statement: Intend to ramp up cooperation in order to decisively counter US efforts to contain them both Will continue to strengthen military cooperation That’s a powerful moment in geopolitics. This pair pledged ‘friendship without limits’ years ago and have backed it up. This article was written by Adam

The Bank of Canada is out with its latest Financial Stability report. It’s mostly a risk-highlighting exercise that has little impact on financial markets but I do want to highlight one part of the report because I believe that housing market risks are mounting and prices are falling. Among households with a mortgage, 60% are

Rate Cuts & Monetary Policy Can’t make a projection now, have to wait until June. Will have to see how things play out. Not at all clear what appropriate monetary policy response would be. Time to wait before adjusting policy. There are cases in which rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and also cases

This is a bad sign for hopes that we could get back to 0%. It indicates that 10% is a floor and I don’t think many countries are going to go for that. From the White House CNN reporter: Trump’s trade announcement with the UK will be limited in scope, heavy on future commitments &

Headlines: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, as expected BOE governor Bailey: Interest rates are not on auto-pilot BOE governor Bailey: Don’t know what to expect from UK-US trade deal for now Trump says agreement with UK is a full and comprehensive one UK believed to have made concessions on food, agriculture

The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, sending GBPUSD initially lower to the session’s low and briefly breaking below the recent support floor near 1.1254—an area that had held over the past week. However, the move quickly reversed as traders digested the mixed vote, which included dissenters on both sides of the

The two-minute delay is to commemorate VE Day, so just be wary of that. As for what to expect, here is what analysts are saying ahead of the decision (h/t @ MNI Markets): HSBC- 25 bps rate cut (8-1 vote, Dhingra to vote for 50 bps)- “There are a number of on-off doves who could

It is reported that the UK has agreed to give some concessions on food and agriculture imports from the US in exchange for lower tariffs on autos. More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

“In light of the national two minutes of silence to commemorate the 80th anniversary of VE day, the Monetary Policy Report and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published at 12.02pm (BST) on Thursday 8 May 2025, instead of the regular time of 12pm (BST).” Just a heads up ahead of the

The visit will be in conjunction with the 2nd ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit that will take place on 27 May. The sources say that Chinese premier Li Qiang will be a high-profile attendee as Beijing hopes to rally more allies in fighting back against US tariffs. Li’s visit will follow up on China president

Xi: China, Russia should make greater contributions to safeguard international fairness and justice Should deepen political mutual trust, strengthen strategic coordination Should push bilateral relations to be more mature and resilient Putin: Talks were warm and sensitive Russia-China relations are self-sufficient Will continue to increase the share of our national currencies in settlements As mentioned

The source here is ‘Wall Street Execs’ so take it with a grain of salt but this isn’t a good sign: BREAKING: Wall Street execs with contracts in the White House say the plan for trade deals on tap — India, Japan, South Korea and Australia— is to have tariffs at or around 10 per

Prior week 241K Initial jobless claims 228K versus 230K estimate (for March 3 week) 4-week moving average 227.0 K versus 226.0 K last week Continuing claims 1.879M versus 1886M estimate Prior week continuing claims 1.908M revised lower from 1.916M last week 4- week continuing claims 1.875M vs 1.866M last week These are the one-week delayed

German DAX futures +0.6% UK FTSE futures +0.7% The optimism comes as Trump touts a “major” trade deal announcement later in the day, in which he will be speaking about at 1400 GMT. The reports are suggesting this to be with the UK but the devil is in the details. As mentioned here, it might

The countdown to FMAS:25 has begun. With just less than a month left until Africa’s largest trading summit kicks off, this year’s event is shaping up to be a massive opportunity for traders eager to sharpen their strategies and walk away with exclusive knowledge from the best. From expert masterclasses to hands-on workshops and access

The US stocks are heading lower after the Fed decision. The big part of the statement was that “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen”. A snapshot of the market shows: Dow up 41 points

The EU is deeming this to be a part of a “mutually beneficial and balanced solution” as both sides are seeking negotiations on trade. The €95 billion will cover a broad range of industrial and agricultural products. And adding to that, the EU is also seeking possible restrictions on certain exports of steel scrap and

The report pretty much confirms that this is a “heads of terms” agreement. In other words, it is a preliminary agreement and a “substantive” step towards a full deal. As for the details, it is all still rather lacking at the moment. Sky’s deputy political editor, Sam Coates, added that this is also a positive

Details to come… This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Info via Reuters report: The U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments are drafting plans for a sovereign wealth fund, though no final decisions have been made, according to the White House. The initiative, ordered by Trump in February, would aim to monetise government-held assets for public benefit and bolster economic security. A central feature under consideration

The EU is considering imposing tariffs on €95bn of US imports. Tariff proposal include meat, fish and agricultural products. Also chemicals, metal goods, wine and beer. The EU will launch WTO complaint against US tariffs. This proposal was expected so don’t fret about it. The EU continues to repeat that it prioritises finding mutually beneficial

South Korean media (Yonhap) reporting that North Korea has fired off a ballistic missile. fires off North Korea’s east coast This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Over the weekend, Reuters reported that OPEC+ was considering to further speed up oil production hikes as Saudi Arabia signalled it was unwilling to prop up the market any longer amid poor compliance with production quotas from Iraq and Kazakhstan. The market opened with a big negative gap, but there was no follow through, in

Most of the market’s focus will be on today’s initial jobless claims report at the bottom of the hour (along with Q1 productivity data) but the report I’m watching for is the March wholesale inventory report. The consensus is for a 0.5% rise but I’m looking for a higher number or a revision higher in

Trump’s announcement: Trump spruiks a major trade deal announcement Thursday morning in Washington As expected, markets react by bidding up stocks. This is Globex S&P 500 (it’s a CFD that tracks ES): Overnight trade is thinner than in regular trading hours, so don’t go betting the farm, OK? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

You will hear more from me later today on US economic deal. I will always act in national interest. Well, now we just wait for the details… This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Former Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda urged calm in response to Trump’s tariffs, saying Japan should “sit down and respond” rather than overreact to frequent U.S. policy shifts. He criticised the tariffs as inflationary and self-defeating, warning they could hurt U.S. consumption and growth and lead to 4–5% inflation by early autumn. Kuroda noted that

Prior 4.50% Bank rate vote 7-2-0 vs 9-0-0 expected (Dhingra, Taylor voted to cut by 50 bps while Mann, Pill voted to keep bank rate unchanged at 4.50%) There has been substantial progress on disinflation over the past two years That progress has allowed the BOE to withdraw gradually some degree of policy restraint Bank

UK official confirms Trump expected to announce US deal outline. The official added that the two countries had made good progress that would likely include lower tariff quotas on steel and cars. As a reminder, the US imposed the baseline 10% global tariff rate on UK. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

New Zealand PM Luxon: Budget 2025 net capital allowance is NZ$4 bln vs prior estimate of NZ$3.6 bln Total capital expenditure allocation in Budget 2025 is NZ$6.8 bln Sharp deterioration of financial markets in early April have somewhat recovered but markets remain volatile International environment clearly matters a lot but I remain confident about our

Trump said he will announce a “major” trade deal on Thursday: WSJ – Trump is expected to announce a framework of a trade deal with the U.K. New York Times says Trump will announce a trade deal with the UK Trump spruiks a major trade deal announcement Thursday morning in Washington Other Chinese Embassy in

Eurostoxx +0.7% Germany DAX +0.7% France CAC 40 +0.5% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% The positive mood holds up as we get into European trading, with market players eyeing Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with the UK later. Or at least the agreement of the framework of a deal,

Uh-oh. The Wall Street Journal is pouring some cold water on the earlier headlines: The announcement, which Trump teased late Wednesday on Truth Social as being with a “big, and highly respected country,” is expected to be a framework of an announcement with tariff adjustments. “This announcement is likely just an agreement to start the

The US dollar caught a solid bid in the back half of the press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and I’m not quite sure why. The moves aren’t huge but in the 20-30 pip range including a 70 pip bounce in USD/JPY from an initial dip. The overwhelming message from the FOMC was that

Trump: Big news conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m., the Oval Office, Concerning a major trade deal with representatives of a big, and highly respected, country. The first of many. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The minutes from the Bank of Japan due today are for the March meeting. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column

The seller of the USDJPY tried, but the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart found support buyers. The low reached 142.89. The inability to move lower, gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher, and they did. The price moved up toward the 100-bar MA at 143.953 on the 4-hour chart after moving through

It’s almost showtime. The initial FOMC statement was hawkish in my reading as it conceded nothing on a softening economy or jobs market while noting higher risks on both sides of its mandate. It also explained away the GDP report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, the only highlight is the BoE policy decision. The central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the bank rate to 4.25% with a 9-0 vote split (although Dhingra could vote for a 50 bps cut). This is widely expected as the BoE has been repeating that cutting once